Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/18/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
141 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... LITTLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THICKEN THEREFORE REDUCING SOLAR INSOLATION. WE HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHIELD
WAS IMPACTING MAINLY TH DACKS WITH EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES FROM
THE HRRR SUGGEST THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION WITH A DEVELOPING TRAIL OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I90
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING LOOKS FINE FOR NOW.
AS OF 930 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING FROM
GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
SFC WAVE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN NY AND NRN PA...AS
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.
THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS
COUPLED WITH THE THERMAL ADVECTION. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
TIED TO THE BETTER QG LIFT IS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
THE SHOWALTER VALUES GRAZE 0 C...AND THE SBCAPE OR MUCAPES REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE. THE PAUCITY OF INSTABILITY /GENERALLY IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE/ SHOULD CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME RUMBLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...AND WE HAVE PHRASED IT AS
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...NRN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE AND ITS PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE U60S TO M70S ARE FORECASTED FROM THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKSHIRES
NORTHWARD...WITH U70S TO L80S SOUTH...WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. PWATS WILL BRIEFLY BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. THE HIGHEST QPF OF A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH IS FROM ROUGHLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY IN THE EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SFC
TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. IN
LOCATIONS...THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE FCST FOR LOCATIONS AT 1000 FT AGL OR LOWER. A COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST. LOWS WERE USED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV-
MET MOS VALUES WITH 50S TO L60S OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. THIS SFC WAVE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO DESCEND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TRICKY
BASED ON THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE/GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME DECENT HEATING
IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM KALB SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM.
THE SBCAPES ARE MUCH LOWERS ON THE GFS COMPARED TO NAM...SINCE THE
NAM HAS HIGHER DEWPTS /LOWER TO M60S/ OVER THE SRN TIER. THE GFS
INDICATES SBCAPES OF 400-800 J/KG WITH THE NAM HAVING AN AXIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
DOES INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS FOR POSSIBILITY OF DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE FLOW BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
WOULD INDICATE SOME LINEAR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT A CAVEAT
TO ALL THE CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES IS THE SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST CAUSING DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HELDERBERGS
AND CATSKILLS...ALLOWING THE SFC DEWPTS TO DROP OFF.
SCT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS ISOLD AT BEST SINCE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION ALONG WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS INDICATING PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN H250 JET STREAK TO HELP
ENHANCE ANY CONVECTION. LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
THE 10-METER WINDS SHOWING THE SW FLOW NICELY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN
THE U70S TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 70S OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE A
BIT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLING OVER
E-CNTRL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES TO U50S TO L60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE NWP GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND THE MOVEMENT OF A WAVE OR MCS ALONG
IT. THE GFS BLASTS THE FRONT THROUGH...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A NICE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/CAN GGEM
STALL THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SOME OVER
RUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. A LONG CONFIDENCE FCST
HERE...AND WE HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN BASED ON THE STRONGER CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE.
TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER WX TUE NIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION ON TUE WITH U60S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS. LOWS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME TUE NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S TO L50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
DESPITE BEING UNDER THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE/FEW DAYS.
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE
ZONAL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT MOVING INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY THROUGH THIS FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
(20-30 PERCENT) FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OUT BELOW NORMAL MID WEEK HOWEVER
THEY WILL MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY THICKENED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE APPROACHING LOW GETS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER THE THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS
NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS...JUST HAVE SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF LOW OVERNIGHT RETURNING TO VFR
MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AT KGFL WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5-8 KTS MONDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
A GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE RH TRENDS EACH MORNING. THE SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM TODAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD
WITH ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO THE SOUTH.
QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AIRMASS LARGELY LACKING IN
ANY SIGNIFICANT MID/UPR LVL LIFTING MECHANISMS TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MUCH PAST SUNSET. H50 TEMPS AOA -6C...NO SIG H85-H50
VORTICITY COUPLETS...NEGATIVE MID LVL OMEGA CONFINED TO THE W FL
COAST...AND CONVERGENT UPR LVLS OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF
EXISTING CONVECTION. AS IF TO EMPHASIZE...CG LTG ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ALMOST ABSENT...NLDN RECORDING FEWER THAN A DOZEN STRIKES OVER E
CENT FL AS OF 19Z.
DESPITE HIGH MOISTURE LVLS...LCL AIRMASS IS SIMPLY TOO TORPID TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WILL GO WITH A
PRE-FIRST PD TO COVER CURRENT CONVECTION...SLGT CHC OF TSRAS OVER
THE NRN CWA THRU 02Z THOUGH EVEN THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE L/M70S WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SERLY FLOW TO KEEP MIN TEMPS
ARND 5F ABV AVG.
MON-TUE...H100-H70 ATLC RIDGE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE S HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AS A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NRN STREAM ROLLS OVER THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ONCE THERE...IT WILL MERGE WITH THE MID LVL
RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX...WITH THE DLM RIDGE AXIS LOCATED BTWN MIAMI
AND TAMPA. THIS WILL GENERATE A DEFINITIVE SWRLY STEERING FLOW ACRS
CENTRAL FL.
THIS FLOW REGIME TENDS TO FOCUS DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST E
FL COAST AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PENETRATES FURTHER INLAND
WHILE THE EAST COAST BREEZE IS FORCED TO OVERCOME THE INERTIA OF THE
WRLY FLOW. MERGER EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND E OF THE FL TURNPIKE
WITH THE WRLY FLOW PUSHING STORMS BACK TO THE E COAST.
THE SWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG ABV AVG...MAX TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE L/M90S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE U80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORM A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MIN TEMPS L/M70S AREAWIDE.
EXTENDED...(MODIFIED PREV DISC)
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS EAST-WEST
ORIENTED 500MB RIDGE OVER FLORIDA CONTINUES TO WEAKENS AND SHIFT
SOUTH AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH FLORIDA ON THU...THOUGH
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING A MORE COHERENT
BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
ALL IN ALL HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ALONG BOTH
SEA BREEZES WITH POPS 30-40 PERCENT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION AND BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND UPON WHERE THE
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP...BOTH MODELS POINT TO IT BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (FAVORING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
FOR RAIN) WITH A MORE DIFFUSE PATTERN THURS/FRI DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
MIDWEEK WILL SEE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH SLOWER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG
THE COAST IN THE MID 70S WITH LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 16/24Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS W OF KTIX-KOBE...ISOLD
SHRA/TSRAS E OF KTIX-KOBE...FC PSBL OVER ATLC S OF KFPR. BTWN
17/00Z-17/02Z...SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS N OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN
17/02Z-17/08Z...VFR ALL SITES. BTWN 17/08Z-17/14Z...LCL MVFR/IFR
CIGS IN STRATUS N OF KISM-KTIX.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL GENERATE A GENTLE
TO MODERATE S/SE BREEZE...SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-3FT NEARSHORE...
3-4FT OFFSHORE. ISOLD TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF CAPE CANAVERAL THRU
LATE EVNG...ISOLD TSRAS OVER THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT.
MON-TUE...ATLC RIDGE AXIS PARKED IN THE VCNTY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
THE NRN BAHAMAS WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WITH
2-4FT SEAS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...MODERATE TO FRESH S/SWRLY
BREEZE N OF THE INLET WITH 3-5FT SEAS. OFFSHORE COMPONENT N OF THE
INLET WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SHORT PD WIND WAVES.
WED-THU...TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA THRU
MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN A GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW BREEZE. SEAS 2-4FT
S OF SEBASTIAN INLET...3-5FT N OF THE INLET. SCT SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE
THRU MID WEEK WITH STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
FRI...ERN SEABOARD TROF WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO DRIFT BACK TO THE N. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S/SE AND
DIMINISH TO AOB 12KTS. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. STORM COVERAGE TO DIMINISH AS STEERING FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS WITH
THE PASSING RIDGE AXIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 89 73 89 / 20 50 20 40
MCO 74 93 73 92 / 20 50 20 30
MLB 76 89 74 88 / 20 50 20 40
VRB 76 88 75 88 / 10 50 20 30
LEE 74 92 73 92 / 20 40 20 30
SFB 75 93 74 93 / 20 50 20 40
ORL 75 93 74 93 / 20 50 20 30
FPR 76 89 74 88 / 10 40 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST....BRAGAW
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
352 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY BRINGING A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT AND INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPRESS AND WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT HAS COVERED THE REGION THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH
AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RISE TO ABOUT 10 PERCENT BUT
MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE FAR WEST INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CSRA NEAR THE 08Z-10Z TIME FRAME MONDAY
MORNING NEAR DAYBREAK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THOSE LOCATIONS ALSO NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING
THE AREA MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THERE
WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORM OF STRATUS BOTH
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD DECK BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PLAN ON CONTINUING THE 40-50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD HIGHS BELOW 90 IN THE UPPER 80S
MONDAY AND MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD HOLD HIGHS INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
70 AND IN THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE NEAR 40 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
NEAR THE EAST COAST AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
THERE APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EAST...RAIN CHANCES DROP
A BIT TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL OR SUMMER
LIKE IN NATURE. HIGHS ARE A BIT BELOW NORMAL MAINLY IN
THE MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT INCREASE TO
THE UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT THERE MAY BE
A FEW 90S AROUND SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONGOING TAF PACKAGE CONTINUES TO LOOK FINE.
SCT/BKN CU/SCU WITH VFR BASES CURRENTLY AT OUR TERMINALS.
LATEST LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID LEVEL CAP.
THIS...ALONG WITH SOME NVA BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK SHORT WAVE...
PREVENTING CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA). MORE MOISTURE TO
OUR WEST CONTRIBUTING TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER NW GA. A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EASTWARD INTO NE GA/UPSTATE
SC LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR TERMINALS. CURRENT DEWPOINTS OVER OUR FA RUNNING ABOUT 7-8
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SOME CONCERN
OVER RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT INDICATES A 25 KNOT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING
FROM THE SW...WHICH WOULD WORK AGAINST FOG FORMATION...BUT COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STRATUS FORMATION...THOUGH A SW DIRECTION IS
TYPICALLY NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR STRATUS. LATEST MOS
BULLETINS AND GFS LAMP SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS POSSIBLE...WITH
MAINYL MVFR CIGS. LAMP ALSO INDICATING MVFR VSBY POTENTIAL AT FOG
PRONE AGS/OGB. LATEST RAP SUGGESTING IFR CIG POTENTIAL AT
DNL/AGS...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AFTER ANY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS...VFR EXPECTED MONDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREAS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL WEAKEN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTH FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AS A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE CAPPING. ALL OF THE MOS
INDICATES POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH IN THE NORTHWEST PART
AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS LATE. FORECASTED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE
DIFFUSE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NEAR THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF DIFFICULT TO TIME
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
LINGERING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA DURING MOST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM AND ECMWF MOS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO DROP A BIT EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER A SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY ROLLED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING LAST EVENING
WHICH HAD INCREASED DEW POINTS. WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST HRRR NOT INDICATING FOG...BUT LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB.
WILL INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO NO
CONVECTION EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES OF LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
919 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
817 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
OVERNIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONG
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH FOR STORM
COVERAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
654 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...STORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN DISSIPATED
QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPED OVER FAR EASTER COLORADO. AM ANTICIPATING
STORMS TO REDEVELOP EAST OF THE CO BORDER AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MOVE OUT FROM UNDER THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE.
OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. AM STILL
HESITANT GIVEN THE OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. WILL RE-EVALUATE ONCE THE NEW MODEL DATA BEGINS TO COME IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS WITH MANY FACTORS IN PLAY
FOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL...AND DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE AS TO
HOW/WHERE/WHEN STORMS EVOLVE. CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE CIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN AREA OF GENERALLY 1500-2000J/KG CAPE BISECTING
THE FA FROM NW TO SE. BULK SHEAR HOWEVER IS QUITE LOW...LESS THAN
10KTS WITHIN THE FIRST 15KFT PER NAM SOUNDINGS. PER CU FIELD ON
VISIBLE AND WINDS IN OBS WOULD APPEAR THAT BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
SOUTH OF EMPORIA...WITH SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH. NOT
CONFIDENT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR PROBABILITY.
STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP IN SW NEBRASKA AS WELL AS FAR SW
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR. MOISTURE AXIS AND CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATE THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...BECOMING A CLUSTER AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOW FAR EASTWARD THEY CAN DEVELOP IS IN
QUESTION...WITH THE NAM/GFS/EC TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE QPF MAINLY
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR BRING A SQUALL
LINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY 9PM TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THINK THE EARLIER SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AND WILL TAKE
MOST OF THE LLJ ENERGY INTO THE WESTERNMOST STORM COMPLEX...THINKING
WON`T BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS FURTHER EAST BACK TOWARD
THE COOLER AIR. ONCE AGAIN WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND
DECREASE CHANCES EAST...BUT NOT WILLING TO TAKE POPS OUT FAR EAST
JUST YET GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH A LINE OF
STORMS TO MAKE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN...BUT SHEAR PROFILES
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. STORMS MOVE EASTWARD
QUICKLY AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWS IN
THE 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON MONDAY...COOLER SE WHERE
CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING MONDAY. 67
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
EXPECT LARGE SCALE RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE IN THE MID RANGE TO
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPELL A
CONSISTENT PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...HOWEVER AS THAT TIME PERIOD
APPROACHES AND MODELS CONTINUE CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING IN THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE PERHAPS WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE COULD BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY.
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE TOUGH TO NAIL
DOWN...AS THERE ARE NO REAL STRONG MID LEVEL SIGNALS TO REALLY
TRACK FOR PRECIP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOES LOOK LIKE IT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HINT
AT SOME STRONG CONVECTION TAKING PLACE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
DRAGGING THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEERING FLOW
WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE PRECIP. SHOULD THE
RIDGE BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED THE W-SW STEERING FLOW MAY END UP OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SHOULD THE RIDGE BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED IT WOULD SHUNT THE CONVECTION NORTH. EITHER
WAY...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...THE MAINLY DRY AND WARM
FORECAST DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
JL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
STILL NOT CERTAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. AREA REMAINS RIPE FOR CONVECTION IF A WAVE
OR A BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE VCTS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...LEIGHTON
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A RATHER COMPLICATED SCENARIO IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS FROM NEAR KHUT EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST TOWARD NORTON KANSAS
AT 2 PM CDT. CU HAS DEVELOPED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECM RAP SHOWS MINIMAL CINH WITHIN AN
AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WAS SITUATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
SURGING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE DOWNSTREAM OF A PV ANOMALY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LATEST 12Z
SUITE OF MODEL DATA HAS SHIFTED THE QPF AXIS A BIT FURTHER WEST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS AREA REMAINS OVERTURNED FROM DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT/EARLY TODAY. ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE STEERED TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT WHILE MERGING WITH THE ACTIVITY DRIFTING SOUTH OUT OF
NEBRASKA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER NO PLANS TO
REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
2-3 INCHES A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITHIN A STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
ARRIVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOW IN THE 60S. -MCGUIRE
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN
THIRD OF KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STAY PLANTED FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME
WITHOUT A BREAKDOWN IN THE FLOW PATTERN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WHEN A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. THUS ANY IMPACT TO THE AREA COULD ONLY BE CONSIDERED
PRELIMINARY AT THIS TIME. THE RIDGE IN PLACE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 90 ONCE MORE. -JUANITA
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIAL CHANCES WILL BE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
CURRENTLY OVER CEN KS AND ANOTHER JUST NORTHWEST OF KCNU. AFTERNOON
DIURNAL HEATING COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF TSRA IN AND NEAR THE KRSL
AND KCNU TAF SITES. SO WILL WITH A VCTS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THIS CHANCE.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO
CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF TSRA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COMPLEX
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CEN AND CEN KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS INITIALLY AROUND
03-04Z/MON...AND GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA 06Z/MON FOR THE KRSL AND
KHUT/KICT TAFS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO GO
WITH SOME VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS OF 25G235KT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH AS WELL.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 67 85 64 84 / 80 60 10 10
HUTCHINSON 67 85 63 84 / 80 50 10 10
NEWTON 67 84 63 83 / 70 50 10 10
ELDORADO 67 84 63 83 / 70 50 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 68 85 65 84 / 80 60 10 10
RUSSELL 65 85 61 84 / 70 20 20 10
GREAT BEND 65 86 62 84 / 70 20 20 10
SALINA 66 85 62 84 / 60 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 66 85 62 83 / 80 40 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 68 83 65 85 / 70 70 10 10
CHANUTE 68 84 63 84 / 60 70 0 0
IOLA 68 83 62 83 / 60 60 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 68 83 64 84 / 70 70 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ071-072-094>096-098>100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1251 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
IT APPEARS THAT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS COULD HAVE
A DECENT SHOT AT RECEIVING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW A TREND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS TREND AS
WELL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THAT MODEL ARE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO THEN MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING. THINK
THAT THE TWO AREAS OF STORMS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MAY BE CORRECT
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. THE SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION MAY QUASH
ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA
BECOMING UNCAPPED BY 00Z SO CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO.
LATER TONIGHT AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OUT INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 50-55 PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE THROUGH MONTEZUMA, DODGE CITY AND
LARNED BASED OFF OF TRENDS IN THE HRRR. THE MODELS HINT AT A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP SUSTAIN THINGS INTO
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS BUT THINK WE WILL SEE A DECREASING TREND
AFTER 06Z.
SUNDAY SHOULD STAR OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HARD TO TELL WHERE EXACTLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL POSITION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF INCREASING POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY ALSO
BE A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURS TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW 90S OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
FOR THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD, A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY CROSS-MOUNTAIN, MID LEVEL, FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING AND SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AT MID
AND HIGH LEVELS WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALL THESE FACTORS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR NOCTURNAL STORM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP THIS TIME OF YEAR ON THE FRONT
RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS EVERY EVENING AND NIGHTTIME. THEREFORE,
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BENEFICIAL RAINS LOOK HIGH. BUT THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN AREAS IS NOT KNOWN WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LOTS OF COOL OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WILL LEAD TO COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AS
MUCH MORE STABLE AIR COULD BE IN PLACE BY TUESDAY.
FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS, MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA, WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MUCH DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING
100F BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES
NEAR THE LEE TROUGH IN WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS DDC AND HYS TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 86 62 82 / 60 30 30 30
GCK 64 86 62 81 / 50 20 40 30
EHA 64 87 62 81 / 40 20 40 40
LBL 64 86 63 81 / 50 30 40 30
HYS 64 85 62 81 / 60 20 30 20
P28 68 88 64 83 / 80 60 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
315` PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM (Fathers Day through Monday Evening Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2013
Well...I have primarily focused on POPS and weather to hone on the
best opportunities for pcpn. 1st wave of pcpn is ahead of a cold
front located from BMG to MVN. Meanwhile warm sector pcpn developing
in better instability acrs S Central KY. Storms acrs the S have 1500
j/KG to work and a deep moisture plume above. These will make
for a few gully washers with some gusty winds below. Some strong
storms in Green county right now.
The main area of precip is moving to the E-SE and will bring likely
to categorical pops acrs S IN and N Central KY later afternoon
through mid evening. The NAM is handling the pcpn initialization
quite well and moving pcpn filed to the SE makes sense. The GFS is
much more aggressive and extensive pcpn fields. The high resolution
models are all over the place over the next 18 hours with the ARW,
HRRR, SPC WRF etc. all having various solutions with the wx scenario.
Overall, have cut back pops tonight in all except Sr Tier counties.
The cold front currently located from Lake Erie to near STL will
slide SE tonight to SRN IN by 12z Monday. Model soundings show low
level clouds encompassing the Srn IN counties Monday morning, so
have cut back pops significantly with except of the srn tier again
where better instability and moisture exists.
On Monday, took the POPS out of SR IN in the morning and then with
ill defined front nearby have slgt chc of storms in the afternoon.
For the S KY counties coordinated with PAH and have high end chance
pops to low end likely pops with better MUCAPE and theta e
advection. The POPS will increase as the day moves along especially
across SW CWA.
Made minor tweaks w.r.t. temps, except for Monday where I decreased
high temps due to cloud cover. MOS guidance has upper 80s and with
cloud cover mid 80s looks more realistic.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2013
Monday Night through Tuesday...
Forecast confidence is not what it was just 12 hrs ago, but still
looks like a period of unsettled weather Monday night through at
least Tuesday as two impulses will sweep through in the cyclonically
curved flow aloft. Confidence is limited by uncertainty in the
timing of these disturbances, and the deeper moisture being
suppressed just to our south.
Will begin Monday evening with likely POPs across the southern tier,
tapering down to slight chance in southern Indiana. Precip chances
will expand northward later in the evening as the upper disturbance
scoots through. Best chances will be a few hours either side of
midnight, in line with the GFS solution which is a bit more robust
than the NAM and slower than the ECMWF. Still not too excited about
severe weather given weak dynamics and instability that is marginal
at best, but a juicy atmosphere will support heavy rainfall as the
main hazard.
One more shortwave to swing through on Tuesday, so the POPs will
continue as the moisture lingers. Slight chance over Indiana, but
40-50 POP from the southern tier up into the Bluegrass region where
there is more juice to work with.
Diurnal temp ranges will be limited by clouds and moisture. Min
temps split the difference between model guidance numbers, while
highs will be on the low end of consensus.
Tuesday night through Sunday...
Surface high over the Great Lakes and upper ridge building from the
southwest will bring drier weather with temps near climo and lower
humidity on Wednesday and Thursday. Warmer and more humid air will
return later in the week as southerly low-level flow develops and
the upper ridge continues to build in from Texas. Temps will push 90
Friday through Sunday, with lows either side of 70. With the ridge
axis extending more into the Mississippi Valley, there remains the
possibility for convection to fire to our north and west, and move
into the Ohio Valley as it decays. Therefore will go with a somewhat
broad-brush 20 POP for a lot of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2013
Well...area of showers and storms is along from BMG to MVN to VIH.
This is moving at about 285 to 290 at 25 to 30 mph. The RUC and NAM
seem to be handing the radar trends the best and increase the precip
towards the SDF terminal late this afternoon.
The new models are strongly suggesting pushing the bulk of the
precip thru this evening and have a fairly dry day Monday except for
the BWG TAF site.
Even across the rain obs sites from IN-MO, VFR conditions dominate.
across the 3 sites here are the best times for pcpn:
SDF - 21-01z
LEX - 23-03z
BWG - 23z-05z and again on Monday
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Short Term.......JDG
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........JDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1245 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2013
Well...precipitation coverage has expanded in coverage out to the
west. IR imagery showing cooling cloud tops along and ahead of the
front across the Land of Lincoln into the Show Me State. Deeper
convection in the warm sector is developing across the Natural
State. Updated the grids to increase POPS to categorical across S IN
and likely north of the BG Parkway.
Early 12z Models showing southern push of precip with the front
later today and this evening. The NAM takes the pops out completely
for tomorrow. This is another vexing conundrum to deal with.
The BNA sounding has over 1000 J/kg and some mid level dry air. Some
of the early evening storms will have some gusty winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2013
...A bit of a challenging forecast today with regard to where and if
any scattered thunderstorms may develop...
An east-west elongated closed low across the Canadian plains has
pushed the polar jet a bit south across our northern tier of states.
In fact, at 500mb, some westerly zonal flow will move as far south
as the Lower Ohio Valley.
This flow has also pushed ample Gulf moisture northeast across
southern Illinois and Indiana, although locations along and south of
the Ohio River currently still are pretty dry, with PWATs still less
than one inch. Several convective complexes have crossed the midwest
earlier this morning, aided by the development of a nocturnal jet.
Once MCS, in particular is currently (at 2AM EDT) decaying over
central Indiana.
Moisture will increase today, especially along and north of the Ohio
River. Further complicating the matter, a weakening outflow boundary
will move southeast across southern Indiana during the pre-dawn
hours today.
So...for this morning, expect occasionally cloudy skies across
southern Indiana with perhaps some isolated sprinkles or very light
showers left over from the decaying MCS. Think that locations along
and south of Interstate 64 will stay dry this morning. Expect
partial clearing north and partly cloudy skies south this afternoon
with an increasing likelihood of scattered thunderstorms developing
by mid afternoon along and north of Interstate 64, with just
isolated storms farther south, away from any richer moisture or
potential outflow boundary.
Any isolated storms will diminish this evening with only a slight
chance for some lingering showers through Monday morning.
Model guidance has been very consistent in forecasting a flat 500mb
wave moving across the Commonwealth late Monday. After a dry
morning, think that at some point late Monday, convection will
become likely, especially across central and southern Kentucky. Both
The NAM and GFS have convective feedback problems across the
Commonwealth late Monday. However, do agree that some locally heavy
rain may develop across central Kentucky late Monday evening through
early Tuesday.
Highs today and Monday will not stray too far from the mid 80s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2013
Monday Night through Tuesday Night...
Fairly unsettled weather pattern looks likely at the beginning of
the forecast period. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
forecast to be lying across the Ohio Valley. Aloft, a mid-level
vorticity maximum is progged to slide eastward into the Ohio Valley
Monday night. This feature should bring a period of shower and
thunderstorms to the region. Highest PoP chances look to be Monday
night and during the day on Tuesday as the upper level system pushes
through. Some of the storms could be on the strong side. However,
severe weather threat looks less with each successive model run. In
general, the bulk shear forecasts are weaker and the amount of cloud
cover and precipitation will likely result in lesser amounts of
instability. Nonetheless, a juicy atmosphere will be in place and
torrential rainfall, gusty winds and plenty of lightning look to be
the main storm threats. The period of unsettled weather looks to
end Tuesday night as the mid-level wave pushes off to the east and
surface high pressure builds in from the west/northwest.
Lows Monday night will be quite mild with readings in the upper 60s
to around 70. Highs Tuesday will largely be influenced by cloud
cover and precipitation. Latest blend of guidance suggests highs in
the upper 70s to the lower 80s in the east with lower 80s in areas
west of I-65. Lows Tuesday night should cool back into the middle
60s.
Wednesday through Saturday...
Surface high looks to remain in control of our weather through the
first part of the extended forecast period. Baggy upper trough is
expected to persist across the eastern US, with the deeper moisture
being confined to the southeastern US and just south of KY/IN.
Overall forecaster confidence is average during this period and it
appears that Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly dry across the
region. Temperatures will moderate during the period with highs on
Wednesday topping out in the lower-middle 80s. Highs should warm
back into the mid-upper 80s by Thursday...while overnight lows
remain in the 60s.
By late week, the models are suggesting that the heat ridge will
build up once again across the Plains states while the Ohio Valley
remains on the eastern periphery of the ridge. A southerly flow
will likely result in more moisture being advected northward into
the region by Friday resulting in isolated-scattered convection
developing during the afternoon/eve. With the region being on the
periphery of the upper ridge, we will need to monitor disturbances
tracking around the ridge as one or more of these disturbances may
result in MCS activity affecting the area by Saturday. Tracking and
timing these features at this time range is quite poor...so plan on
sticking to climatological PoPs with this forecast. Highs Friday
and Saturday will be close to seasonal normals with highs in the
85-90 degree range and overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2013
Well...area of showers and storms is along from BMG to MVN to VIH.
This is moving at about 285 to 290 at 25 to 30 mph. The RUC and NAM
seem to be handing the radar trends the best and increase the precip
towards the SDF terminal late this afternoon.
The new models are strongly suggesting pushing the bulk of the
precip thru this evening and have a fairly dry day Monday except for
the BWG TAF site. The 18z TAF account for this.
Even across the rain obs sites from IN-MO, VFR conditions dominate.
across the 3 sites here are the best times for pcpn:
SDF - 21-01z
LEX - 23-03z
BWG - 23z-05z and again on Monday
Winds will primarily stay SWLY and less than 10 mph.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........JDG
Short Term.......JDG
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........JDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
441 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST
RADAR ANIMATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN OVER NH SPREADING
EAST INTO MAINE. WHILE SOME OF THIS IS DRYING UP WITH EVAP
COOLING...RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS. HAVE UPPED
POPS FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...ALBIET THE RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS MUCH OF THE PCPN EXITING ERN PORTIONS OF
MANIE BY ABOUT 01Z OR 02Z.
PREV DISC...
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM NY STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE INITIAL PRECIP HAS BEEN EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. AIR OVER MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD SATURATE...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN IN
THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND AS AIR IS VERY DRY. PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT GET A SHOWER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS IN SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD REACH THE MID 80S. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT
MOVES VERY THROUGH REGION WITH SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IN STORE. SHOULD BE A WEAK BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING THAT COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS TRYING TO DROP A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. WILL NOT GIVE IT TOO MUCH WEIGHT YET
BUT IT WILL REMAIN A FEATURE TO LOOK FOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SHOWERS AND IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
936 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE FLOW REGIME...WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SHORTWAVE OBSERVED ON WATER
VAPOR CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN VA. SHORTWAVE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
(BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATERS ~1.8 INCHES)...AS WELL AS LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST
NOTABLE IS CURRENTLY OVER SERN VA/NE NC. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WINDS UP TO 45 MPH (THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES)
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. HRRR HANDLES THIS AREA OF PRECIP
WELL...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE BY 6PM EDT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER WRN VA AND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS NW AND
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER ERN CANADA TONIGHT/TUES
MORNING...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL CANADA) WILL DIVE DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LOCATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUES AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE TN
VALLEY...LIFTING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY. THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW (H85
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT) AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION (ESPECIALLY SE VA/NE NC) TUES-WEDS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES (NEARLY +2 STD DEV) BY TUES
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SFC LOW WILL
PROGRESS EWD TUESDAY...REACHING NRN NC LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT (THANKS TO RRQ OF
DEPARTING 100+ KT UPPER JET) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TUES MORNING...AND SPREADING EWD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN VA/SERN VA/NE NC. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...SO ORGANIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DEEP LIFT WILL RESULT IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS THE LOW CROSSES NRN NC TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT OFF THE VA COAST AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE OH
VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AROUND THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER SRN VA TUES
NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THAT REGION.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING...SETTLING
OVER THE CAROLINAS WED. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER SRN
VA/NRN NC THROUGH EARLY WEDS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL USHER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/SFC FRONT...SHUNTING THE
BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY WEDS NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST. DRY THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION AND MOISTURE SOURCE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY (LOW/MID 80S) WILL COOL TO NEARLY
-1 STD DEV WED AND THURS (LOW 80S). LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW
60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 50S SOME LOCALES BY THURS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDS EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DYING...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE THAT TERMINALS MAY BE AFFECTED. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NEAR ORF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BEFORE FOG BURNS OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CLOUDS MAY LINGER THRU THE MORNING
PERIOD BEFORE BREAKING BY MID DAY.
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED ON TUE AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...A BRIEF REDUCTION TO CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES.
&&
.MARINE...
A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY DROPPING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY WIND SHIFT IS VERY LOCALIZED AT THIS TIME...WITH SW
FLOW RECOVERING N OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO PA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE
19/12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE INTO W-CENTRAL NC WHILE THE 19/12Z NAM
LAGS THE LOW BACK OVER TN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 19/12Z ECMWF HAS
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS NC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS TIMING
VERIFIES THE WIND WOULD LIKELY SHIFT TO NNE FROM N-S LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NNE/NE THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
COAST. SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SCA FLAGS AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THAT THE EARLIEST COMMENCEMENT
OF SCA CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE LATE 3RD PERIOD INTO 4TH PERIOD.
THE HIGH SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM NE-S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
342 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
INTO MONDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE ON TUESDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR A DRY
MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH A 300MB 100KT JET AXIS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A 500MB SHORT WAVE IS WEAKENING
AS IT SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004MB SURFACE
LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A ILL- DEFINED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INTO NORTHERN OHIO.
SHOWERS INITIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL WAVE HAVE MOSTLY
DIMINISHED AND SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA. EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOSTLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE TEMPS FROM BEING REACHED. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO NOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE HRRR/WRF-NMM SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. WITH ALL OF THIS IN
MIND...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS THE AREA MENTIONED IN
ITS SEE TEXT. TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO
LAMP GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ANY LINGERING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MOSTLY
DIMINISHING BY 06Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS A
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SERVE TO MODERATE LOW TEMPS. FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE WARMER MAV...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WITH THE POORLY
DEFINED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE. WITH THE BOUNDARY SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE MID 80S IN EASTERN OHIO.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...POP FORECAST INCREASES TO CHANCE AS THE ECMWF
INDICATES A WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS IN A ZONAL FLOW. DESPITE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK
ISODROSOTHERMAL GRADIENT WILL ALLOW TDS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AND THUS LOWS ARE A ECMWF/NAM BLEND IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORT WAVE VORT ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
THE AREA IS IN MORE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN SERN CANADA. THE GFS IS INDICATING WEAK
INSTABILITY (SBCAPE <1000 J/KG) WITH MODERATE SHEAR (0-6KM BULK
SHEAR 30-35KTS) DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. THE NAM TAKES A MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE APPROACH WITH THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CURRENTLY
BEING DISCOUNTED. THE FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH THE
CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING A SEVERE THREAT...BUT WILL CONTINUE
MONITOR THIS DUE TO THE FACT THAT IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS REALIZED
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE
FORECAST WILL BECOME DRY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW FOR A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED...COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLNS AGREED GENLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF THE PROGGED FLOW PTN OVR THE ERN CONUS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH ECMWF AMPLIFYING THE PTN CLOSER TO
GFS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FM THE SRN PLNS ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST THUS CONSERVATIVELY FEATURES TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
WEEKEND. PCPN CHCS WERE FORECAST AOB CLIMO NMBRS...BUT WERE GENLY
INCRSD USING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR SHRTWV TIMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENTLY GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES WITH RAIN
SHOWERS. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH REGION. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING IN BUT WITH
WET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS ONLY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME FG/BR TO DEAL WITH MONDAY MORNING AT SOME TAF SITES.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW APPRCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD RTN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
234 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR A DRY MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REDUCE POPS AS
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
THE LATEST RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH A 300MB 100KT JET AXIS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A 500MB SHORT WAVE IS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1005MB SURFACE
LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WEAK 700-500MB VORT ENERGY ALONG WITH A
MOIST 800-650MB LAYER ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. AS
FORCING FROM THE WAVE MOVES EASTWARD...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE. EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE TEMPS FROM BEING REACHED. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH
CHC SHOWERS AND SCHC THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT
THE HRRR/WRF-NMM SOLUTIONS. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS THE AREA MENTIONED IN ITS SEE TEXT.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO LAMP
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ANY LINGERING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MOSTLY
DIMINISHING BY 06Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS A
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SERVE TO MODERATE LOW TEMPS. FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE WARMER MAV...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS ON MONDAY DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IN THE DRY REGION BETWEEN FRONTS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH...AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO GET PRECIP GOING. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE NAM/SREF ARE AGGRESSIVE SWEEPING THE NORTHERN
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY...KEEPING THE NORTHERN FRONT DRY
AND FOCUSING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONT...AND THE GFS
AND GEFS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...HAVE BACKED OFF
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FOR MON NIGHT/TUES.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE
DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
MICHIGAN. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLNS AGREED GENLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF THE PROGGED FLOW PTN OVR THE ERN CONUS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH ECMWF AMPLIFYING THE PTN CLOSER TO
GFS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FM THE SRN PLNS ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST THUS CONSERVATIVELY FEATURES TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
WEEKEND. PCPN CHCS WERE FORECAST AOB CLIMO NMBRS...BUT WERE GENLY
INCRSD USING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR SHRTWV TIMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENTLY GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES WITH RAIN
SHOWERS. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH REGION. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING IN BUT WITH
WET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS ONLY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME FG/BR TO DEAL WITH MONDAY MORNING AT SOME TAF SITES.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW APPRCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD RTN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR A DRY MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE
POP...USING COVERAGE WORDING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY 1-2 DEGREES.
THE LATEST RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH A 300MB 100KT JET AXIS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A 500MB SHORT WAVE IS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO. AT THE SURFACE...A 1005MB SURFACE LOW IS
LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WEAK 700-500MB VORT ENERGY ALONG WITH A MOIST
800-650MB LAYER ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE 12Z KPIT SOUNDING SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LAYER
WITH WEAK SBCAPE (APPROX 100 J/KG) WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL ZONAL
PROFILE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OHIO. FORCING FROM THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST IN THE 18Z-00Z WINDOW AS HIRES
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY IN RESOLVING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR/WRF-NMM SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE NAM 4KM INDICATES SHOWERS MORE LIMITED.
WITH EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVERAGE...BELIEVE THIS WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS FROM BEING REACHED. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO NOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE HRRR/WRF-NMM SOLUTIONS. WITH ALL OF THIS
IN MIND...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MENTIONED THE AREA IN
ITS SEE TEXT...CONSIDERING THE LOW PROB SCENARIO THAT IF CLOUD COVERAGE
BREAKS THEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A POSSIBLE EWD MOVING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ANY LINGERING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MOSTLY
DIMINISHING BY 06Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS A
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SERVE TO MODERATE LOW TEMPS. FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE WARMER MAV...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS ON MONDAY DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IN THE DRY REGION BETWEEN FRONTS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH...AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO GET PRECIP GOING. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE NAM/SREF ARE AGGRESSIVE SWEEPING THE NORTHERN
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY...KEEPING THE NORTHERN FRONT DRY
AND FOCUSING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONT...AND THE GFS
AND GEFS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...HAVE BACKED OFF
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FOR MON NIGHT/TUES.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE
DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
MICHIGAN. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLNS AGREED GENLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF THE PROGGED FLOW PTN OVR THE ERN CONUS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH ECMWF AMPLIFYING THE PTN CLOSER TO
GFS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FM THE SRN PLNS ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST THUS CONSERVATIVELY FEATURES TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
WEEKEND. PCPN CHCS WERE FORECAST AOB CLIMO NMBRS...BUT WERE GENLY
INCRSD USING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR SHRTWV TIMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENTLY GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES WITH RAIN
SHOWERS. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH REGION. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING IN BUT WITH
WET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS ONLY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME FG/BR TO DEAL WITH MONDAY MORNING AT SOME TAF SITES.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW APPRCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD RTN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1115 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR A DRY MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE
POP...USING COVERAGE WORDING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY 1-2 DEGREES.
THE LATEST RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH A 300MB 100KT JET AXIS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A 500MB SHORT WAVE IS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO. AT THE SURFACE...A 1005MB SURFACE LOW IS
LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WEAK 700-500MB VORT ENERGY ALONG WITH A MOIST
800-650MB LAYER ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE 12Z KPIT SOUNDING SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LAYER
WITH WEAK SBCAPE (APPROX 100 J/KG) WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL ZONAL
PROFILE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OHIO. FORCING FROM THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST IN THE 18Z-00Z WINDOW AS HIRES
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY IN RESOLVING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR/WRF-NMM SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE NAM 4KM INDICATES SHOWERS MORE LIMITED.
WITH EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVERAGE...BELIEVE THIS WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS FROM BEING REACHED. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO NOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE HRRR/WRF-NMM SOLUTIONS. WITH ALL OF THIS
IN MIND...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MENTIONED THE AREA IN
ITS SEE TEXT...CONSIDERING THE LOW PROB SCENARIO THAT IF CLOUD COVERAGE
BREAKS THEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A POSSIBLE EWD MOVING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ANY LINGERING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MOSTLY
DIMINISHING BY 06Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO
MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS A
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL SERVE TO MODERATE LOW TEMPS. FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE WARMER MAV...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS ON MONDAY DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IN THE DRY REGION BETWEEN FRONTS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH...AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO GET PRECIP GOING. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE NAM/SREF ARE AGGRESSIVE SWEEPING THE NORTHERN
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY...KEEPING THE NORTHERN FRONT DRY
AND FOCUSING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONT...AND THE GFS
AND GEFS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...HAVE BACKED OFF
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FOR MON NIGHT/TUES.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE
DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
MICHIGAN. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLNS AGREED GENLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF THE PROGGED FLOW PTN OVR THE ERN CONUS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH ECMWF AMPLIFYING THE PTN CLOSER TO
GFS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FM THE SRN PLNS ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST THUS CONSERVATIVELY FEATURES TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
WEEKEND. PCPN CHCS WERE FORECAST AOB CLIMO NMBRS...BUT WERE GENLY
INCRSD USING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR SHRTWV TIMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHWRS AND INCRSD EMBEDDED TSTM CHCS TDA. FOR NOW...GIVEN A LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN INSTABILITY PROGS...WL KP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH ISOLD IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW APPRCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD RTN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
749 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR PERIODIC RAIN CONTINUING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN DRY OUT FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED PROBALIBILITES OF PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY DUE TO RADAR
SHOWING MEASURABLE PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN INDIANA HAS MANAGED TO HOLD UP FAIRLY WELL CONSIDERING
THE TIME OF DAY. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THIS LINE WILL BE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. 04Z HRRR INDICATES THE LINE MAY PASS TO
THE NORTH AROUND SUNRISE. NEVERTHELESS...SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS
MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...BUT AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
SETUP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...BUT LOOKING AT HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL REFLECTIVITIES...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE REGIONS WITH
PRECIPITATION SHOW A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THINK
THAT MOST RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO CURRENT
READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS ON MONDAY DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IN THE DRY REGION BETWEEN FRONTS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH...AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO GET PRECIP GOING. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE NAM/SREF ARE AGGRESSIVE SWEEPING THE NORTHERN
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY...KEEPING THE NORTHERN FRONT DRY
AND FOCUSING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONT...AND THE GFS
AND GEFS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...HAVE BACKED OFF
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FOR MON NIGHT/TUES.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE
DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
MICHIGAN. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLNS AGREED GENLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF THE PROGGED FLOW PTN OVR THE ERN CONUS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH ECMWF AMPLIFYING THE PTN CLOSER TO
GFS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FM THE SRN PLNS ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST THUS CONSERVATIVELY FEATURES TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
WEEKEND. PCPN CHCS WERE FORECAST AOB CLIMO NMBRS...BUT WERE GENLY
INCRSD USING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR SHRTWV TIMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHWRS AND INCRSD EMBEDDED TSTM CHCS TDA. FOR NOW...GIVEN A LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN INSTABILITY PROGS...WL KP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH ISOLD IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW APPRCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD RTN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
548 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR PERIODIC RAIN CONTINUING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN DRY OUT FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN
INDIANA HAS MANAGED TO HOLD UP FAIRLY WELL CONSIDERING THE TIME OF
DAY. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THIS LINE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. 04Z HRRR INDICATES THE LINE MAY PASS TO THE NORTH
AROUND SUNRISE. NEVERTHELESS...SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS MOVING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...BUT AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
SETUP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...BUT LOOKING AT HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL REFLECTIVITIES...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE REGIONS WITH
PRECIPITATION SHOW A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THINK
THAT MOST RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO CURRENT
READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS ON MONDAY DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IN THE DRY REGION BETWEEN FRONTS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH...AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO GET PRECIP GOING. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE NAM/SREF ARE AGGRESSIVE SWEEPING THE NORTHERN
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY...KEEPING THE NORTHERN FRONT DRY
AND FOCUSING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONT...AND THE GFS
AND GEFS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...HAVE BACKED OFF
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FOR MON NIGHT/TUES.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE
DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
MICHIGAN. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLNS AGREED GENLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF THE PROGGED FLOW PTN OVR THE ERN CONUS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH ECMWF AMPLIFYING THE PTN CLOSER TO
GFS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FM THE SRN PLNS ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST THUS CONSERVATIVELY FEATURES TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
WEEKEND. PCPN CHCS WERE FORECAST AOB CLIMO NMBRS...BUT WERE GENLY
INCRSD USING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR SHRTWV TIMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN APPRHG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL BRING SHWRS AND INCRSD
EMBEDDED TSTM CHCS TDA. FOR NOW...GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
INSTABILITY PROGS...WL KP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF ANY SPECIFIC
TAF SITE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLD IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW APPRCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD RTN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
330 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR RAIN CONTINUING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN DRY
OUT FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN
INDIANA HAS MANAGED TO HOLD UP FAIRLY WELL CONSIDERING THE TIME OF
DAY. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THIS LINE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. 04Z HRRR INDICATES THE LINE MAY PASS TO THE NORTH
AROUND SUNRISE. NEVERTHELESS...SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS MOVING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...BUT AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
SETUP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...BUT LOOKING AT HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL REFLECTIVITIES...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE REGIONS WITH
PRECIPITATION SHOW A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THINK
THAT MOST RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO CURRENT
READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS ON MONDAY DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IN THE DRY REGION BETWEEN FRONTS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH...AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO GET PRECIP GOING. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE NAM/SREF ARE AGGRESSIVE SWEEPING THE NORTHERN
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY...KEEPING THE NORTHERN FRONT DRY
AND FOCUSING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONT...AND THE GFS
AND GEFS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...HAVE BACKED OFF
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FOR MON NIGHT/TUES.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE
DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
MICHIGAN. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLNS AGAIN DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEPICTIONS OF THE PROGGED FLOW PTN OVR THE ERN
CONUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS FORECASTS A MORE
AMPLIFIED HT FIELD WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FM THE SRN PLNS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE ECMWF EXHIBITING A MORE CONSISTENT SOLN THAT IS CLOSER
TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS A MORE MODERATE
PROGNOSIS FEATURING TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING TO NR/JUST ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE WEEKEND. PCPN CHCS WERE FORECAST AOB
CLIMO NMBRS...BUT WERE GENLY INCRSD USING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR
SHRTWV TIMING INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL OF WHICH IS GENLY FEATURED VIA
HPC GUIDANCE...MINOR TWEAKS TO WHICH SUFFICED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN APPRHG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL BRING SHWRS AND INCRSG
CHCS FOR TSTMS TDA. FOR NOW...GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
INSTABILITY PROGS...WL KP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF ANY SPECIFIC
TAF SITE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLD IFR IN HEAVIER SHWRS.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW APPRCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD RTN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
711 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN
QUEBEC RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MANITOBA WAS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NRN LAKES. WEAK 850-700 MB FGEN SUPPORTED A BAND OF DIMINISHING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NRN UPPER MI HAD DISSIPATED LEAVING
MAINLY JUST SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO NRN WI SUPPORTED SCT TSRA OVER N CNTRL WI IN AREA WHERE
SFC HEATING HAD PUSHED MLCAPES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. MLCAPE
VALUES AND TSRA MOTION SUGGESTS THE TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CLEARING ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 0.30 INCH OVER THE WEST(35
PCT OR NORMAL) FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. UPSTREAM OBS FROM
LAST NIGHT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST THAT TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE
33F TO 36F RANGE OVER FAVORED COLDER LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF. SO...SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE LIGHT
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST AND DELAYED
CLEARING/MIXING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. SO...WAS NOT AS CONFIDENT IN MORE WIDESPREAD FROST
THAT WOULD REQUIRE AN ADVISORY.
TUE...SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 30S RESULTING IN RH
VALUES TO NEAR 25 PCT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
REGION...LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...AS THE AREA IS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A DRY SURFACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND A PLEASANT JUNE
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AND PUSH 850MB TEMPS UP TO 10C. WITH DEEP MIXING TO
800-750MB...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE DEEP MIXING AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...HAVE
FOLLOWED MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS /UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S/...LOWEST OVER THE EAST. THIS PRODUCES MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 30 PERCENT OVER THE EAST. WIND SHOULDN/T BE TOO GUSTY THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 15-20MPH IN THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD END UP PRODUCING MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS.
ATTENTION FOR THE LONG TERM THEN TURNS TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH. WITH IT BEING NEAR THE MN
ARROWHEAD AROUND PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE AND NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
IN ONTARIO. WITH THE FORECASTED STORM MOTION...THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THEY WILL DIMINISH AS DIURNAL
HEATING IS LOST AND IT RUNS INTO THE EXISTING DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH.
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE IS CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE HIGHEST
POPS AND THEN DIMINISH THE REST AS THEY DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL
HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK LAKE BREEZES TO AID CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE BEST INTERACTION WITH THE CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY /ML CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED POPS UP TO HIGH
CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY VALUES WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE /25-30KTS/ AND
WITH CAPE FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY...WOULD THINK HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 20KTS
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AND SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA. THIS MAKES PINNING DOWN POPS A
LITTLE DIFFICULT AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM AND MOVING THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS LIKE THE
WAVES WILL COME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THOSE PERIODS FOR THE HIGHEST POPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THAT PERIOD...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
EACH OF THE WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
WARM FRONT WILL LINE UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY
LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SHORTWAVES. WITH THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS GETTING
CLOSER INTO THE WEEKEND...WOULD THINK THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ON
THE RISE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO PEAK AND THE OVERALL PATTERN
LOOKS CONDUCIVE FOR AN MCS FORMING IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND ROLLING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS
FROM THE 12Z GFS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS
SATURDAY...SO IT WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THE AREA WILL COME UNDER MORE ZONAL TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REALLY DIMINISHES FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND
ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IN GENERAL...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BRING THE CONVECTION TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL SAG SOUTH AND FOCUS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S. ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAY NEED TO INCREASE IT IN
COVERAGE IN THE FUTURE AND ALSO EXPAND IT INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL CONVECTION WAS OVER
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE WAS INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
FOG EARLIER TODAY AND CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK LAKE BREEZES. THESE
INITIAL SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
CWA...BUT ARE SEEING SOME SHOWERS IN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS
FAR DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR EVEN THOUGH THERE IS STRONG
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RAP ANALYZED SB CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. BUT WITH THE INVERTED V LOOK TO THE RAP
SOUNDINGS...ML CAPES ARE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE 250-500 J/KG.
THIS DRY AIR CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE DEWPOINTS /UPPER 40S/ AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT JUMPS IN THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AS THE
LAKE BREEZES HAVE MOVED IN AND OUT OF SOME OF THE SITES. FARTHER
WEST...A PERSISTENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVED INTO WESTERN
GOGEBIC COUNTY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND DID PRODUCE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40KTS EVEN THOUGH THE CLUSTER IS DIMINISHING. THIS ISN/T TOO
UNREASONABLE WITH CURRENT DCAPE VALUES OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
AROUND 800-1000 J/KG AND THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...DUE TO ONE PIECE OF SHEARED OFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AS THE STORM MOTION IS AROUND 40KTS.
THE AREA THAT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS THE
REMNANT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS STARTED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE CANADA/ND/MN BORDER AND HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE. WITH THE
STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-35KTS AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT THOSE SHOWERS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ON THE EASTERN CWA...AS
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM THUNDER BAY AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THEY WILL MAKE IT BEFORE
DIMINISHING. WILL HAVE LOWER POPS THAN OVER THE WEST...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY. AN EARLIER UPDATE COVERED THE
TIMING WELL OVER THE WEST AND HAVE JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
MATCH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE HIGHER REACHES
OF THE SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY. THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE COVERAGE/TIMING WOULD BE BETTER
REFLECTED IN THE SCATTERED WORDING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DRY
AIR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TO
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST THREAT WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE THE 850-700/500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
THE STEEPEST...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVER THE SW
HALF OF THE CWA...AS THEY HAVE THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS TO PRODUCE THE HIGHER
DCAPE VALUES.
THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND THE REST OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY
MORNING...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT IS ALSO WHERE
THE BEST 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONV IS LOCATED EVEN THOUGH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE SLOWLY DIMINISHED THE
THUNDER THREAT OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS LOCATED. WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH DECENT MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT AS THAT
CONVERGENCE OCCURS...THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE THE WINDS BECOME UPSLOPE FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.
THE LARGER SCALE FORCING SHOULD DEPART THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CWA AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEY WILL BE LEFT WITH ANY SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...LOW CLOUDS SEEN IN CENTRAL ONTARIO/MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
MODELS STRUGGLING WITH HOW LOW THE CLOUDS WILL BE...BUT EITHER WAY
A CLOUDY START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PRODUCE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TOMORROW...WITH 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE DRIFTING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND
A BROAD TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK...IT WILL LOOSE AMPLITUDE
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING E FROM A TROF OVER THE NW CONUS BEGINS
TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE. THE NW FLOW EARLY ON WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
FOR UPPER MI. MOVING INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...PATTERN SHOULD
BECOME ACTIVE WITH DECENT PCPN PROSPECTS AS SHORTWAVES TRACK E
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLEST
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEHIND SHORTWAVE PASSING
TONIGHT/MON. THEN...DESPITE NW FLOW...TEMPS THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SINCE ERN
TROF WILL NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE INTO THE ERN CONUS...
RESULTING IN COOLER AIR STAYING E AND NE OF THE AREA. TEMPS LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMER/MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. COULD BE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID FOR A DAY OR TWO.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT...A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. WITH VERY DRY COLUMN (PRECIPITABLE
WATER 30-50PCT OF NORMAL) AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM...WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE LOW END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE ARRIVING
DURING THE NIGHT. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...THERE
IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST IN THE USUAL COLDER AREAS.
SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING.
RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT SITE ON THE 18TH IS 38F. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT RECORD COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE SETTLED OVER THE UPPER LAKES TUE...PROVIDING A
DRY/PLEASANT MID JUNE DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER LINGERING
VERY DRY COLUMN. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE...KEEPING LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE AFTN. GIVEN AVBL DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN...DWPTS
SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 30S...POSSIBLY LOWER...IN THE INTERIOR...
RESULTING IN MIN RH DOWN AROUND 25PCT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME LOCATIONS FALL TO AROUND 20PCT. FORTUNATELY...LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WX CONCERNS IN CHECK.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AND STILL CONTINUES TO HINT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE...PASSING JUST N OF UPPER MI LATE WED/WED
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM ALL MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE...IT STILL APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME PCPN AT SOME POINT
LATE WED/WED NIGHT. NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE
WARRANTED SINCE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO THE N AND SINCE COVERAGE
WILL BE LOW IF PCPN DOES OCCUR. IF WAVE IS FASTER AND ARRIVES DURING
PEAK HEATING WED...PCPN CHC WILL BE GREATER...BUT WOULD STILL NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT COVERAGE.
ON THU...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBTLE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY THE AREA WED NIGHT TO HANG UP OVER/NEAR
UPPER MI...AND THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION THU AFTN.
MAINTAINED SCHC/LOW CHC POPS IN FCST.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND COULD
BECOME ACTIVE AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE GREAT
LAKES...SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE THAT WAS SHIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE AREA. SIGNAL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST MID
RANGE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF FRI/SAT. SFC HIGH PRES
MAY BEGIN TO BUILD S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES SUN IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC...SO PCPN CHANCES MAY
DIMINISH ON SUN. OVERALL...THERE APPEARS TO BE DECENT POTENTIAL THAT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME RAIN AT SOME POINT BTWN FRI AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER UPPER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DIURNAL CU IN
CHECK SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. BUT AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
THEY SHOULD AFFECT KCMX/KIWD FIRST AS THEY QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD. WILL HOLD OFF ON THUNDER MENTION FOR ALL BUT
KIWD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEARING DULUTH
TO MENTION THUNDER AT KIWD...BUT LEFT OUT OTHERWISE. THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE THUNDER THREAT TO DIMINISH AND SLIDE
SOUTH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH WILL
TRY TO PULL LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING ON
IF THEY WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS...SOME FOG LINGERS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHICH COULD SHIFT TOWARDS KSAW/KCMX WITH THE WINDS SHIFT
AND ADDITIONAL MOISTENING FROM THE SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS LATER IN
THE PERIOD...OPTED TO PLAY THE MIDDLE GROUND AT THIS POINT /MVFR
CEILINGS/ BUT IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AT
KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...LEADING TO WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A POCKET OF FOG OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MI/ THAT HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING AND MOVING AROUND TODAY. WOULD EXPECT THE DRY AIR
TO CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT IT THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS SOME
CONCERN IT COULD EXPAND WITH RAIN OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF FOG
DOES LINGER TONIGHT...IT WILL CLEAR OUT MON MORNING AS MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGES S INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL CONVECTION WAS OVER
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE WAS INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
FOG EARLIER TODAY AND CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK LAKE BREEZES. THESE
INITIAL SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
CWA...BUT ARE SEEING SOME SHOWERS IN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS
FAR DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR EVEN THOUGH THERE IS STRONG
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RAP ANALYZED SB CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. BUT WITH THE INVERTED V LOOK TO THE RAP
SOUNDINGS...ML CAPES ARE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE 250-500 J/KG.
THIS DRY AIR CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE DEWPOINTS /UPPER 40S/ AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT JUMPS IN THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AS THE
LAKE BREEZES HAVE MOVED IN AND OUT OF SOME OF THE SITES. FARTHER
WEST...A PERSISTENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVED INTO WESTERN
GOGEBIC COUNTY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND DID PRODUCE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40KTS EVEN THOUGH THE CLUSTER IS DIMINISHING. THIS ISN/T TOO
UNREASONABLE WITH CURRENT DCAPE VALUES OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
AROUND 800-1000 J/KG AND THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...DUE TO ONE PIECE OF SHEARED OFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AS THE STORM MOTION IS AROUND 40KTS.
THE AREA THAT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS THE
REMNANT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS STARTED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE CANADA/ND/MN BORDER AND HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE. WITH THE
STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-35KTS AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT THOSE SHOWERS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ON THE EASTERN CWA...AS
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM THUNDER BAY AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THEY WILL MAKE IT BEFORE
DIMINISHING. WILL HAVE LOWER POPS THAN OVER THE WEST...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY. AN EARLIER UPDATE COVERED THE
TIMING WELL OVER THE WEST AND HAVE JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
MATCH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE HIGHER REACHES
OF THE SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY. THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE COVERAGE/TIMING WOULD BE BETTER
REFLECTED IN THE SCATTERED WORDING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DRY
AIR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TO
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST THREAT WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE THE 850-700/500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
THE STEEPEST...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVER THE SW
HALF OF THE CWA...AS THEY HAVE THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS TO PRODUCE THE HIGHER
DCAPE VALUES.
THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND THE REST OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY
MORNING...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT IS ALSO WHERE
THE BEST 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONV IS LOCATED EVEN THOUGH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE SLOWLY DIMINISHED THE
THUNDER THREAT OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS LOCATED. WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH DECENT MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT AS THAT
CONVERGENCE OCCURS...THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE THE WINDS BECOME UPSLOPE FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.
THE LARGER SCALE FORCING SHOULD DEPART THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CWA AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEY WILL BE LEFT WITH ANY SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...LOW CLOUDS SEEN IN CENTRAL ONTARIO/MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
MODELS STRUGGLING WITH HOW LOW THE CLOUDS WILL BE...BUT EITHER WAY
A CLOUDY START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PRODUCE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TOMORROW...WITH 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM WILL NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES IN SIGHT. EXPECT 500MB LOW PRESSURE TO
REMAIN OVER NE CANADA AND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
WILL START OUT MONDAY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...THANKS TO
COOL N FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR /850MB TEMPS NEAR 7C ALONG THE SHORE/
AND THE 500MB SHORTWAVE BREAKING UP THE WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN FROM NE MN AND ONTARIO EARLY...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 500MB LOW SPINNING NEAR
JAMES BAY ON MONDAY WILL SWING ANOTHER WAVE DOWN FROM ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE
SFC. FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR W
HALF OF UPPER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...AS
THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY SINKS ACROSS LOWER MI. EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY
WARMUP EACH DAY...WITH LAKE BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...COOLING
DOWN NEAR SHORE AREAS. WAA WILL INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 10C BY THE END OF THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...OR MORE THAN LIKELY JUST INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON OUR QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY WET PERIOD POP WISE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IT WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND
THIS PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS IS TO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAR EASTERN
AREAS A BIT DRIER...WITH A SFC LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO STAY
TO OUR SOUTH...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TOWARD LAKE MI AND LOWER MI
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THAT OCCURS...IT WILL GIVE THE EAST END OF UPPER
MI A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING A WETTING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER UPPER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN KEEPING THE DIURNAL CU IN
CHECK SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. BUT AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
THEY SHOULD AFFECT KCMX/KIWD FIRST AS THEY QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD. WILL HOLD OFF ON THUNDER MENTION FOR ALL BUT
KIWD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEARING DULUTH
TO MENTION THUNDER AT KIWD...BUT LEFT OUT OTHERWISE. THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE THUNDER THREAT TO DIMINISH AND SLIDE
SOUTH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH WILL
TRY TO PULL LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING ON
IF THEY WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS...SOME FOG LINGERS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHICH COULD SHIFT TOWARDS KSAW/KCMX WITH THE WINDS SHIFT
AND ADDITIONAL MOISTENING FROM THE SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS LATER IN
THE PERIOD...OPTED TO PLAY THE MIDDLE GROUND AT THIS POINT /MVFR
CEILINGS/ BUT IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AT
KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...LEADING TO WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A POCKET OF FOG OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MI/ THAT HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING AND MOVING AROUND TODAY. WOULD EXPECT THE DRY AIR
TO CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT IT THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS SOME
CONCERN IT COULD EXPAND WITH RAIN OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
348 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE AREA A COUPLE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE
RIDGE. THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER THE WEST AND THEN THE DIMINISHING
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA FROM
THE LOW IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. POCKET OF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
STARTING TO NOSE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES...AS
HINTED AT BY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR...AND HAVE BEEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON
TWO FEATURES...THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. THIS EVENING AND
THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
MN. THEY BOTH SEEM TO BE INTERACTING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR THIS
MORNING...WOULD EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOP AND
PUSH NORTHEAST INITIALLY BEFORE THE STORM MOTIONS TAKE THEM MORE
EASTERLY AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. ML CAPES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO
THIN AND INCREASE HEATING. THE ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ALSO ROUNDING THE RIDGE...THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED AND STORM MOTION WOULD
TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT...WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT SINCE NCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.1 AND DCAPE
VALUES STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 700 J/KG AS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DISSIPATE.
FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE UPPER LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MN/ND/CANADA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRACK EAST THIS
EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO
DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT WITH THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES...WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE THE TROUGH AND CONVECTION SLIDE THROUGH...DRY
MID LEVEL AIR WILL SURGE OVER THE AREA AND LEAD TO A FAIRLY QUIET
NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OFF
THE LAKE WITH THE SHOWERS UPSTREAM...HAVE ADDED IN FOG OVER EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH THE KEWEENAW...SINCE THERE IS A DENCENT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND THERE ARE 50S AND LOW 60S DEWPOINTS
MOVING OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUDS HAVE OBSCURED THE LAKE TO SEE IF ANY FOG IS
GOING...BUT SHIP OBS HAVE YET TO REPORT FOG.
EXPECT SUNDAY TO START OFF ON THE NICE SIDE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...AS THE AREA IS STILL UNDER THE 900-500MB DRY AIR. THIS
DRY AIR WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER
LOW WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG SHEARS OFF AND STARTS TO SEND PIECES OF
ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW
VALUES IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
AS FOR FORCING FEATURES...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL BE RE-FOCUSING EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS
THE MAIN AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOLLOWS THAT SAME TRACK. THIS WILL
LEAVE A SURFACE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL START TO DROP SOUTH OVER UPPER MICHIGAN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THAT OCCURS...THE INCREASING 850-750MB
MOISTURE SHOULD SPARK SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU. WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 400J/KG...QUESTION COMES TO IF THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DECENT DRY AIR ABOVE 650MB WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THINGS...BUT DID INCLUDE SLIGHTS AND LOW END CHANCES FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON IN CASE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH ARRIVES A
LITTLE QUICKER. IF THERE WASN/T THE INVERTED V LOOK TO THE
SOUNDINGS WITH THE MIXING TO 800-700MB WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES SEEN IN THE NAM...ML CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...AND BOOSTED POPS UP MORE. EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE
LIMITED WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UNLESS THE NAM SOLUTION
VERIFIES. THIS IS DUE TO THE CAPE IS FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY WITH NCAPE
VALUES BELOW 0.1 ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A CONCERN WITH THAT INVERTED V
LOOK...DCAPE VALUES OVER 750 J/KG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
EXISTING WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KTS OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM WILL NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES IN SIGHT. EXPECT 500MB LOW PRESSURE TO
REMAIN OVER NE CANADA AND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
WILL START OUT MONDAY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...THANKS TO
COOL N FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR /850MB TEMPS NEAR 7C ALONG THE SHORE/
AND THE 500MB SHORTWAVE BREAKING UP THE WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN FROM NE MN AND ONTARIO EARLY...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 500MB LOW SPINNING NEAR
JAMES BAY ON MONDAY WILL SWING ANOTHER WAVE DOWN FROM ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE
SFC. FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR W
HALF OF UPPER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...AS
THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY SINKS ACROSS LOWER MI. EXPECT A SLOW AND STEADY
WARMUP EACH DAY...WITH LAKE BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...COOLING
DOWN NEAR SHORE AREAS. WAA WILL INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 10C BY THE END OF THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...OR MORE THAN LIKELY JUST INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON OUR QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY WET PERIOD POP WISE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IT
WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THE CONSENSUS
IS TO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAR EASTERN AREAS A BIT DRIER...WITH A SFC
LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES
TOWARD LAKE MI AND LOWER MI SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THAT OCCURS...IT WILL
GIVE THE EAST END OF UPPER MI A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING A WETTING
RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE THE FCST A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. TEMPO
IFR VIS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AT IWD AND SAW WITH FOG AND THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH MIXING
TAKING PLACE DURING THE DAY. AT CMX EXPECT LIFR TO VLIFR VSBY IN FOG
AS IT ADVECTS IN OFF THE LAKE. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...TYPICAL OF THE
WARM SEASON. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG PATCHES THRU SUN EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SURGE S INTO THE AREA. IF SOME RAINFALL OCCURS
OVER THE LAKE...FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO FORM AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD/DENSE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
142 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE AREA A COUPLE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE
RIDGE. THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER THE WEST AND THEN THE DIMINISHING
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA FROM
THE LOW IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. POCKET OF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
STARTING TO NOSE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES...AS
HINTED AT BY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR...AND HAVE BEEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON
TWO FEATURES...THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. THIS EVENING AND
THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
MN. THEY BOTH SEEM TO BE INTERACTING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR THIS
MORNING...WOULD EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOP AND
PUSH NORTHEAST INITIALLY BEFORE THE STORM MOTIONS TAKE THEM MORE
EASTERLY AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. ML CAPES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO
THIN AND INCREASE HEATING. THE ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE THICKENING
HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ALSO ROUNDING THE RIDGE...THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED AND STORM MOTION WOULD
TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT...WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT SINCE NCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 0.1 AND DCAPE
VALUES STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 700 J/KG AS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DISSIPATE.
FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE UPPER LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MN/ND/CANADA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRACK EAST THIS
EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO
DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT WITH THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES...WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE THE TROUGH AND CONVECTION SLIDE THROUGH...DRY
MID LEVEL AIR WILL SURGE OVER THE AREA AND LEAD TO A FAIRLY QUIET
NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OFF
THE LAKE WITH THE SHOWERS UPSTREAM...HAVE ADDED IN FOG OVER EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH THE KEWEENAW...SINCE THERE IS A DENCENT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND THERE ARE 50S AND LOW 60S DEWPOINTS
MOVING OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUDS HAVE OBSCURED THE LAKE TO SEE IF ANY FOG IS
GOING...BUT SHIP OBS HAVE YET TO REPORT FOG.
EXPECT SUNDAY TO START OFF ON THE NICE SIDE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...AS THE AREA IS STILL UNDER THE 900-500MB DRY AIR. THIS
DRY AIR WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER
LOW WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG SHEARS OFF AND STARTS TO SEND PIECES OF
ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW
VALUES IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
AS FOR FORCING FEATURES...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL BE RE-FOCUSING EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN PUSHING EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS
THE MAIN AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOLLOWS THAT SAME TRACK. THIS WILL
LEAVE A SURFACE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL START TO DROP SOUTH OVER UPPER MICHIGAN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THAT OCCURS...THE INCREASING 850-750MB
MOISTURE SHOULD SPARK SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU. WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 400J/KG...QUESTION COMES TO IF THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DECENT DRY AIR ABOVE 650MB WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THINGS...BUT DID INCLUDE SLIGHTS AND LOW END CHANCES FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON IN CASE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH ARRIVES A
LITTLE QUICKER. IF THERE WASN/T THE INVERTED V LOOK TO THE
SOUNDINGS WITH THE MIXING TO 800-700MB WOULD HAVE CONSIDERED THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES SEEN IN THE NAM...ML CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...AND BOOSTED POPS UP MORE. EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE
LIMITED WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UNLESS THE NAM SOLUTION
VERIFIES. THIS IS DUE TO THE CAPE IS FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY WITH NCAPE
VALUES BELOW 0.1 ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A CONCERN WITH THAT INVERTED V
LOOK...DCAPE VALUES OVER 750 J/KG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
EXISTING WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KTS OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL FEATURE NW FLOW INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE DRIFTING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS AND A BROAD TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. LATER IN THE WEEK...RIDGE
PROGRESSING INTO THE PLAINS WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING E FROM A TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...NW FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THRU MID WEEK. THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
COULD THEN BECOME ACTIVE WITH BETTER PCPN PROSPECTS AS SHORTWAVES
EJECT E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...
COOLEST WEATHER WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND SHORTWAVE
PASSING SUN NIGHT/MON. THEN...DESPITE NW FLOW...TEMPS THRU THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL SINCE ERN TROF WILL NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE INTO THE
ERN CONUS...RESULTING IN COOLER AIR STAYING E AND NE OF THE AREA.
TEMPS LATE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMER/MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING SUN NIGHT/MON...CURRENTLY WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY/OPENING UP AS IT GETS
SHEARED ESE IN THE FLOW BTWN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AMPLIFYING
ERN CANADA TROF. DESPITE THE CURRENT VIGOROUS APPEARANCE/RELATIVELY
LARGE CIRCULATION OF MID-LEVEL LOW...RECENT MODEL TRENDS POINT
TOWARD A WEAKER REMNANT DROPPING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES WITH BULK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
PASSING BY TO THE SW AND S OF UPPER MI SUN NIGHT/MON. AS SUCH...WILL
ONLY CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING BY TO THE S OF UPPER MI MON AND WITH
VIGOROUS LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU NRN ONTARIO...EXPECT ANY SHRA TO
END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY WITH CLEARING FOLLOWING. IT WILL BE
A COOLER DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...DUE TO BREEZY N WINDS
AND CLOUDS DOMINATING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTN. A CHILLY NIGHT IS
THEN ON THE WAY FOR MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. WITH VERY DRY COLUMN (PRECIPITABLE WATER 30-50PCT OF NORMAL)
AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM...WILL CONTINUE OUR RECENT TREND
OF LOWERING MIN TEMPS FOR MON NIGHT. WILL FAVOR LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE
ARRIVING DURING THE NIGHT. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL COLDER
AREAS...AND A MENTION OF FROST WILL BE INCLUDED IN FCST. SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. RECORD LOW FOR
NWS MQT SITE ON THE 18TH IS 38F. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT RECORD
COULD BE TIED OR POSSIBLY BROKEN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MON...SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE
INTO THE UPPER LAKES TUE...PROVIDING A DRY/PLEASANT MID JUNE DAY
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER LINGERING VERY DRY COLUMN. LAKE BREEZES
WILL BE THE RULE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE AFTN.
UTILIZING MIXING HEIGHTS TO DETERMINE POSSIBLE DWPT CRASH IN THE
AFTN SUGGESTS DWPTS COULD DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
DID NOT GO THAT LOW JUST YET. EVEN WITH MID 30S DWPTS...RH WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25PCT. FORTUNATELY...LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WX
CONCERNS IN CHECK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AND CONTINUES TO HINT
THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY DROP SE...PASSING JUST N OF UPPER MI WED/WED
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM ALL MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME PCPN AT SOME POINT LATER
WED/WED NIGHT. NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND WHAT SHOULD BE LOW COVERAGE IF PCPN
DOES OCCUR. IF WAVE IS FASTER AND ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING WED...
PCPN CHC WILL BE GREATER...BUT WOULD STILL NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE
THAN SCT COVERAGE.
IT WOULD APPEAR THU SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUBTLE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING BY THE AREA WED
NIGHT TO HANG UP OVER/NEAR UPPER MI...AND THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME CONVECTION THU AFTN. SCHC/LOW CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN FCST.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE LATE WEEK PERIOD COULD BECOME ACTIVE AS
SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE GREAT LAKES...
SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE THAT WAS SHIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SIGNAL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST
MID RANGE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR MUCH OF FRI AND SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE THE FCST A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. TEMPO
IFR VIS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AT IWD AND SAW WITH FOG AND THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH MIXING
TAKING PLACE DURING THE DAY. AT CMX EXPECT LIFR TO VLIFR VSBY IN FOG
AS IT ADVECTS IN OFF THE LAKE. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT CMX. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THE FCST
PERIOD AS PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...TYPICAL OF THE
WARM SEASON. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG PATCHES THRU SUN EVENING BEFORE
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SURGE S INTO THE AREA. IF SOME RAINFALL OCCURS
OVER THE LAKE...FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO FORM AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD/DENSE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
656 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO CENTER
AROUND THE VERY TRICKY...AND CONSTANTLY-EVOLVING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...OR LACK THEREOF IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ALTHOUGH
AT LEAST A LOW-END RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AS THE SUNDAY EVENING EVENT.
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE COLD FRONT
NOTED WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK/NORTHWEST TX. IT HAS BEEN
COMPLETELY RAIN/THUNDER-FREE THE ENTIRE DAY SO FAR CWA-WIDE. WITH
THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...AND A MODEST 1018 MILLIBAR
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE GENERALLY SOME VARIATION OF NORTHERLY/EASTERLY AT NO MORE THAN
10 MPH. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
DEPICTS THE CONTINUATION OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...FLOWING OVER THE TOP OF A FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THERE ARE GENERALLY THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIPPLES OF NOTE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/MO/OK BORDER
AREA...ONE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND...AND THE OTHER A FAIRLY
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...WHICH
HAS HELPED TRIGGER SOME THUS-FAR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL
50-100 MILES WEST- NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NOTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH A FEW THICKER
MID-CLOUD AREAS DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES OUT AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS ARE GENERALLY ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S MOST ALL AREAS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PINNING DOWN THE HOURLY DETAILS
OF POPS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. REGARDING THE
BIG PICTURE ALOFT BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...THE VERY SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WY/CO/NORTHWEST NEB AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST...WHILE
THE SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE NOW OVER ND WILL REACH THE
NORTH CENTRAL IA BY SUNRISE. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE CONSIDERED A
VARIETY OF DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
TONIGHT...WHICH INVARIABLY PAINT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
PICTURES...BUT LEANING MAINLY TOWARD THE HRRR/4 KM-WRF SOLUTIONS
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO
THE WEST. THROUGH 7PM...HAVE KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA POP-
FREE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES CREEPING INTO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND/OR DRIFTS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN 00Z-04Z/7PM-11PM...SPREAD AT LEAST
SLIGHT 20 PERCENT POPS INTO EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...WHILE RAISING INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT HIGH-CHANCE RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. BY 00Z...LATEST RAP INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG OF 0-1KM CAPE MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DROP
OFF SLOWLY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN HIGHEST IN KS ZONES. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CURRENT POPS MAY NOT BE NEARLY HIGH ENOUGH IF IN FACT A
SEMI-ORGANIZED BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVERHEAD OR MOVES
IN...BUT GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT NO MORE
THAN 40-50 PERCENT FOR NOW. GENERALLY HAVE FOLLOWED SPC SREF
SEVERE THUNDER PROBABILITIES BY CONTINUING A MENTION OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION DRIFTING IN. WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD SEEM TO BE A
60-70 MPH WIND EVENT IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A COLD POOL...BUT
IN THEORY THIS SEEMS FAIRLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
LOSE INTENSITY AS IT HEADS EAST OUT OF WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS...SO WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT A MARGINALLY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS
TIME. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE NAM THAT A MODEST RIBBON OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER COULD SPARK A NEW ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
MAINLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST-DRIFTING DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE...AND THUS
HAVE PUT POPS BACK INTO THESE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
CASE THIS OCCURS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS...WITH NEARLY
ALL AREAS SETTLING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60. ALSO...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 1-2 MILES OR LESS THAT WOULD
REQUIRE FORMAL INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST.
TURNING TO THE TUESDAY DAYTIME PERIOD...UNCERTAINLY JUST KEEPS
GROWING...WITH SOME MODELS CONTINUING TO PAINT DAYTIME MORNING
CONVECTION POSSIBLY AS A CONTINUATION OF THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...AND ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING BY TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...BASED ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING
UNCERTAINTY/CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LESS QPF IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND LEAVE THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS RAIN/THUNDERSTORM-FREE FOR
NOW...WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
INSERT SOME POST-SUNRISE POPS WITH LIMITED NOTICE. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE PREVIOUS 12Z NAM WAS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE NEW 18Z RUN NOW HAS PLENTY OF DAYTIME
CONVECTION...WHICH COULD EASILY BE OVERDONE PER THE 12Z 4KM WRF-
NMM...WHICH FITS THE MORE COMMON CONCEPTUAL PICTURE OF LACK
OF FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THE IA SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES
PASSING SOUTHEAST. THIS CONCEPTUAL PICTURE OF THIS PATTERN WOULD
ALSO SUGGEST THE BEST AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WOULD BE IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND THUS AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ONLY
OFFICIAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CWA TOMORROW ARE FROM 3-7PM
IN WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD THEY OCCUR. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...BE PREPARED FOR
SOME POTENTIALLY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THESE
STORM CHANCES...AS LOOKING EVEN BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS
PROVING DICEY...AND MORNING CONVECTION COULD BE A WILD CARD.
TEMP-WISE TOMORROW...ASSUMING DAYTIME CONVECTION DOES NOT BLOSSOM
AND CLOUD THINGS UP...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY AND
NUDGED UP HIGHS SLIGHTLY...GETTING MOST PLACES BETWEEN 81-86
DEGREES. BREEZES WILL START OUT LIGHT BUT PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVE
AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT SHOWS THE
REGION REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK/BROAD RIDGING IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FAR NERN CONUS
AND THE PAC NW COAST. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY ONGOING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR
EAST/HOW MUCH OF THE CWA ENDS UP BEING AFFECTED. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO TAKE ITS TIME SLIDING EAST...WITH LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEEING THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SEEING THUNDERSTORM...BUT ITS POSSIBLE NOT A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
WILL MAKE IT...SO THERE ISNT A BIG RAMP UP IN POPS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AS WE LOOK TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOTHING IS CERTAINLY CLEAR
CUT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED PAC
NW UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING INLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS ONLY MOVED INTO THE WA/ID/MT
BORDER AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION LIES WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF
PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. ITS IMPACT ON
THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WHICH AT THIS
POINT LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT/BROAD...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SHIFT
THOSE BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ALREADY ON
WEDNESDAY...SOME MODELS SHOW THE WEST WITH THE BETTER CHANCES/OTHERS
THE EAST...AND DECIDED AT THIS POINT TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER
SIDE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE POPS
/WHICH REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY/...WITH THERE STILL BEING SOME
SUPPORT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST SLIDING
THROUGH...BUT WITH OTHERS STARTING TO TREND AWAY FROM THAT WASNT
GOING TO INCREASE THOSE CHANCES.
BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS STARTING TO DEPICT SOME SLIGHT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS THAT PAC NW LOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN QUESTION IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES...AND
WHAT/IF ANYTHING IS LINGERING IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL
ANYTHING FIRE IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACCOMPANYING THIS
BUMP UP IN THE RIDGE IS WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS...AND CAPPING STARTS TO BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. SOME
MODELS HAVE STARTED TRENDING TOWARD THAT CAP BUILDING IN AND KEEPING
THE DAY DRY...BUT A FEW ARE HANGING ON TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY...SO WHILE POPS WERE LOWERED...THEY WERE NOT
COMPLETELY REMOVED AT THIS POINT.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS DRY. THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS
BECOMES MORE ORIENTATED IN A SW/NE DIRECTION JUST EAST OF THE
CWA...THE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING AND LOCATION OF SFC
BOUNDARIES LOOKS TO KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES JUST OFF TO THE CWA.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE
CWA. THE LOW OVER THE PAC NW FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE E/NE
INTO CENTRAL CANADA...BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING THE RIDGE ONCE IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AGAIN ALLOWING FOR THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE MAIN FLOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECTING TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...MAINLY INTO THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME WITH THAT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE...BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN A TOUCH
INTO SUN/MON. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RISING TO THE 90S FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT /ADDITION UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED/...WITH MID 80S
TO MID 90S FOR SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED NEAR THE GROUND...AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE TERMINAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THIS NORTHWEST
FLOW...BUT CONFIDENCE OF A TSRA AT THE TERMINAL ITSELF IS
LOW...AND INCLUDED ONLY A MENTION OF A VCTS AND CB AFT 18/04Z.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
TERMINAL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED
LOCALLY BEFORE 19/00Z.
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...SAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
132 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER
AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL NOT MAKE THIS TOO DETAILED TODAY
JUST IN CASE CONVECTION GETS GOING BY MID AFTERNOON.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH BROAD TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE GIVING THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA
A LITTLE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN THE SOUTHERN PART DUE TO
THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE FROM KS TO TX HAS
HELPED DEVELOP/SUSTAIN NON SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND WAS JUST PUSHING TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 1 PM CDT. ALSO ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE AN MCV OR NEDDY EDDY SWIRLING FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WOULD EXPECT ANY EFFECTS FROM THIS TO BE TO OUR EAST. DIFFICULT TO
PLACE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIFFUSE
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT PASSED
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. BY 17Z THE BOUNDARY APPEARED
TO BE LYING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.
BEST SURFACE MOISTURE POOLING IN THIS AREA WITH UPPER 60S FOR
DEWPOINTS...AS COMPARED TO THE 50S NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. TO GO
ALONG WITH THIS...ML CAPES THE HIGHEST HERE AT 17Z WITH VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 50 KT ALONG NEB/SDAK BORDER...30
KT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND LESS THAN THAT IN OUR
SOUTH.
FIRST QUESTION THEN IS WILL THUNDERSTORMS POP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TO WHAT EXTENT. THE 4KM WRF DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SAGS IT SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. IT
ALSO DEVELOPS AN MCS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THEN
SLIDES IT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KS OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO ALSO
SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR TODAY. QUESTION HERE IS WILL
THE TRACK TAKE IT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR KS COUNTIES. WILL
MOST LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY
INTO THE EVENING WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS KS. SO
FAR SEVERE CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT LOOK THAT PROMISING
DUE TO THE LACK OF MID LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR. COULD SEE
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IF MCS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES.
THE SITUATION IS NOT MUCH CLEARER FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCATIONS OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
COULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY DO TODAY. LATEST DAY 2
OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THEY MENTION THAT
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A LINEAR SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT ALTHOUGH EARLY ON WE COULD SEE
DISCRETE CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. WILL PROBABLY HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH
FOR SUNDAY...CLOSER TO EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
SUGGESTS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE
NORTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PERIODIC MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER OUR
AREA WITHIN THE MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW...THUS PRESENTING PERIODS OF
INCREASED OMEGA. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS ONE
SUCH TIME PERIOD WITH QPF FIELDS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC
...SREF-MEAN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM...ALL SUGGESTING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED OVER OUR AREA.
MAINTAINED THE ~50% POPS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...POP-RELATED DETAILS BECOME MURKY AT BEST...WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUGGESTING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL
MOVE OVER SOME PORTION OF OUR CWA AT SOME POINT IN TIME. RESULTANT
QPF FIELDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS A RESULT...THUS MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AN EXACT LOCATION TO PLACE POPS. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
NAM...EC...AND SREF-MEAN OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEING
REALIZED SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST...PER THE
NAM...EC...AND EVEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS DESPITE ITS DRY QPF OUTPUT
ON BOTH DAYS...SUGGEST STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS TO AUTO-CONVECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
OUR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. GIVEN THE MODEST CONSENSUS FROM MODEL
QPF FIELDS...AS WELL AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...WENT AHEAD
WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WEST/SOUTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD OF
OUR CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO MORE OF
A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WITH MULTIPLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
MOVING OVER THE REGION. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20-50%
POPS FOR VARIOUS POINTS ACROSS OUR CWA DURING VARIOUS TIME
PERIODS. TIMING AND POSITION DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO ANY OF THE
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY NOT
BECOME ANY MORE CLEAR FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AND AS A RESULT...THE
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESSFULLY IMPROVING THE FORECAST AS PROVIDED BY
ALLBLEND IS LOW. GIVEN THIS LOW PROBABILITY...OPTED TO LEAVE THE
ALLBLEND POPS UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...IN PARTICULAR
THE NAM...SUGGEST ASCENDING PARCELS ROOTED TO BETWEEN 825MB AND
750MB WILL HAVE ~1500J/KG TO WORK WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THIS POTENTIAL ENERGY...DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ~30KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH WITH RESPECT TO
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE
HWO FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
COULD BE OBSERVED SHOULD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BE REALIZED ACROSS
OUR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING
HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AND EC
ALL SUGGESTING DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
2000-3000J/KG RANGE. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
~30KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
OUTLOOK THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. MUCH LIKE THE OVERALL POP
FORECAST...DETAILS REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER TIMING AND POSITION
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT LIKELY BECOME ANY MORE CLEAR FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE TIME BEING.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD PRESENT SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE GENERALLY IN THE 80S CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND TO
FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS CREEPING INTO THE
70S FOR SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE KGRI AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE KGRI VICINITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL MODELS ROLL
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO THE AREA TO WATCH TODAY WILL BE TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BUT
MAY VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST BASED ON WEAK BOUNDARIES IN
THE AREA. THE WIND COULD ALSO BECOME MUCH MORE ERRATIC WITHIN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1035 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING ACROSS THE CWA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS STILL IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS LATE HOUR AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN. WILL ADDRESS
THESE AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN
TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA AND ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY IS NOT IN
OUR FAVOR...REDEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 2000
UTC RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE COVERAGE AND IT
REDEVELOPS SPORADIC ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
THE MAIN STEERING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL PEAK ABOVE
2 INCHES AT TIMES SO THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
WILL BE HARD TO TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AS WELL
AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUPPORTING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THUS ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH NO SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA COULD AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW CLIMO EACH DAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING
TEMPS BACK A BIT. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM A
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LEADING UP TO ITS PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS HIGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THURS WILL MOVE EAST SHIFTING OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND FURTHER OFF SHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM NORTHEAST ON THURS TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE WIND
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS BACK NORTH AND THEREFORE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO AND THEREFORE MAY
KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST OVER COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD
UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO
LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AS THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH AND MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH WHERE BOUNDARY REMAINS. PCP
WATER VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CAROLINAS WILL BE CLOSER TO 1.9 INCHES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS
MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO OUR LOCAL CWA MAINLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHC OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH
THE FORECAST REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART...THE MOISTURE
PROFILES DO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA FILTERING OUT THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850 TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
RIGHT AROUND 15 C WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE UP ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS
AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY AFFECT THE TEMPS AT TIMES BUT
OVERALL EXPECT MAX TEMPS EACH DAY REACHING THE MID 80S AND CLOSER TO
90 INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S MOST NIGHTS AND AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS/T-STORMS FIRING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. KFLO/KLBT WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS STORMS PUSH
THROUGH. SHOWERS MAY REACH KMYR/KCRE LATER THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING WORSE THAN TEMPO MVFR ATTM.
PCPN CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. MVFR/IFR FOG APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT WHERE PCPN IS SATURATING THE NEAR
SFC LAYER. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD INHIBIT
FOG...BUT TEMPO MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MORE
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES. SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WILL SHIFT INLAND LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS
DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...WINDS ARE INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS VIA BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AT 952MB. A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD COVER THE FORECAST
WELL NOTING THAT SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE HIGHER RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 3-4 FEET SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TAP TO PASS ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT THUS NO PLAN TO RAISE AN ADVISORY
THIS EARLY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
FIGHT TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT STIFF NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND FRONT ON THURS TO WEAKEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER BERMUDA. WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 4 TO 5
FT IN OUTER WATERS THURS IN NE WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KTS. NEAR SHORE
SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL BE BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST WINDS AND
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FT. AS WINDS VEER AROUND AND
LIGHTEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FT
MOST WATERS AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS 10 KTS OR SO CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
210 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH AND SURFACE TROUGHINESS
SHARPENING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE 12Z KGSO
SOUNDING...AS WELL AS THE SOUNDING FROM KMHX...SHOWED A DECENT CAP
REMAINING AROUND 700MB...WHILE THE KRNK SOUNDING INDICATED JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 700MB ALBEIT WITH A WEAK CAP
IN PLACE. THE RAP SOUNDINGS FORECAST THIS CAP ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS...UPPER LEVELS
COOL...AND THE OVERALL MOISTURE OF THE AIR MASS INCREASES. THE RAP
FORECASTS 850MB SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANY MODEST UVV
WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES HOLDING OFF UNTIL 00Z AND
AFTER. THE LATEST HRRR WRF IS DRY AS WELL...ALONG WITH QPF FROM THE
RAP. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY...AND EXPECT PERIODS OF
MOSTLY MID- AND SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO RESULT IN A
PARTLY-TO-MOSTLY SUNNY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALREADY THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS AND...BASED ON THE
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND THE WINDS ALOFT ON THE KRAX 88D VAD WIND
PROFILE...INCREASED THE GUSTS A TRIFLE ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHEAST AREAS TO MORE AROUND 20KT. WHILE THE MAV MOS HAS SIMPLY
BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...THE MET MOS IS CLOSER TODAY TO THE MAV AND
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LOWERED A DEGREE TOWARD KRWI BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS AND MOS...AND AS A RESULT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
1000-850MB THICKNESSES COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. STILL...HIGHS 85 TO 90.
THE VERY LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT QPF MOVING IN A LITTLE MORE IN EARNEST
INTO NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 02Z OR SO. MID-LEVEL
COOLING AND OVERALL MOISTENING ON THE NAM IS EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT...
AND THE LATEST HRRR WRF SUGGESTS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO KENTUCKY ABLE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO AT LEAST THE TRIAD AND TOWARD KTDF AS
MOISTENING...AND COOLING ALOFT...OCCUR. FOR THE LATE MORNING
UPDATE...RAISED POPS INTO CHANCE FOR THAT AREA. WILL NOTE THE LATEST
NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS INTO CATEGORICAL IN THE TRIAD FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...DIMINISHING BUT STILL HIGHER ELSEWHERE. AFTER A REVIEW OF
THE GFS...MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME FURTHER INCREASE FOR MANY PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLOUDINESS...AGAIN
MAINLY MID AND UPPER...WILL BECOME PREVALENT TONIGHT AS THE
APPROACHING FRONT TRANSLATES INTO THE LEE TROUGH. MINS WILL BE MILD
AND SEASONABLE...UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...TRANSITION TO A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF WILL
BE UNDERWAY AND THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL TROFFING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. THICKNESSES ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH AND SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
80S. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HAMPER INSOLATION A BIT...MOSTLY MID
80S WEST TO UPPER 80S EAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN INCREASINGLY DISTURBED FLOW...BUT ITS
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A PARTICULAR FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME TO
FOCUS ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FAVORING THE
WEST AND NORTH.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
PERHAPS A PRECEDING MCV FROM CONVECTION INITIATED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL MIGRATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUE. THESE FEATURES WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY AN ELONGATED BUT STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN NW FLOW FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER VA/NC TUE WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH...AND THIS MERGED BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUE NIGHT. WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND WITH FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...THE WEAK (~20
METER/12 HR) HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/FRONT
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUE. THE SLOW SOUTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL END
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER BY WED MORNING.
WHILE WSW MEAN FLOW ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE UNDERLYING SURFACE FRONT
SUGGESTS DOWNPOURS/ LOCALIZED FLOODING IN TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE GREATEST IMPACT...INCREASING MID LEVEL
FLOW/BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS MAY ALSO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH PRECIPITATION-LOADED STRONG WET MICROBURST WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST MAXIMUM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2 COULD BE
NEARLY DOUBLED LOCALLY INVOF OUTFLOW/BACKED SURFACE FLOW...WHICH
COULD SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...THOUGH SUCH A
SCENARIO WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MESO AND STORM SCALE INFLUENCES WITH
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY BEYOND A FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...WILL INCLUDE
ONLY A GENERIC ONE SENTENCE MENTION OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN
THE HWO FOR NOW FOR TUE. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND STORMY CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NW...TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER
THE SOUTH...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES - IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 80S - IN WEAK POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED GENERALLY EAST TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER SC THROUGH THU GIVEN CONTINUED FRONT-
PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT IN THE BASE OF BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. WILL
ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THIS FRONT AND HIGHER BL MOISTURE...AND ALSO TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER
WHERE A FEW WEAKENING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DRIFT AFTER INITIATION AND
PROPAGATION FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES. A WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY...TO
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY...WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE...AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS...BY THE WEEKEND. A RISK OF A FEW LATE AFTERNOON PULSE
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONSEQUENTLY INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITIES...AROUND 20 PERCENT OR SO...BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO MAKE IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE SLIGHTLY MORE
CAPPED AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH A CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE CHANCES FOR AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...IN AT LEAST SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SREF PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY LOW AND WILL SHOW CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES
ONLY GETTING AS LOW AS MVFR DURING THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
MODESTLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
TO MAINLY 5 TO 10KT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WINDS WITHIN 3K FEET OF THE SURFACE SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 TO
30KT...WITH WINDS AT THAT LEVEL DIMINISHING TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...GOOD PROBABILITY OF PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
BECOME PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY
REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1151 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH AND SURFACE TROUGHINESS
SHARPENING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE 12Z KGSO
SOUNDING...AS WELL AS THE SOUNDING FROM KMHX...SHOWED A DECENT CAP
REMAINING AROUND 700MB...WHILE THE KRNK SOUNDING INDICATED JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 700MB ALBEIT WITH A WEAK CAP
IN PLACE. THE RAP SOUNDINGS FORECAST THIS CAP ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS...UPPER LEVELS
COOL...AND THE OVERALL MOISTURE OF THE AIR MASS INCREASES. THE RAP
FORECASTS 850MB SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANY MODEST UVV
WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES HOLDING OFF UNTIL 00Z AND
AFTER. THE LATEST HRRR WRF IS DRY AS WELL...ALONG WITH QPF FROM THE
RAP. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY...AND EXPECT PERIODS OF
MOSTLY MID- AND SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO RESULT IN A
PARTLY-TO-MOSTLY SUNNY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALREADY THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS AND...BASED ON THE
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND THE WINDS ALOFT ON THE KRAX 88D VAD WIND
PROFILE...INCREASED THE GUSTS A TRIFLE ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHEAST AREAS TO MORE AROUND 20KT. WHILE THE MAV MOS HAS SIMPLY
BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...THE MET MOS IS CLOSER TODAY TO THE MAV AND
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LOWERED A DEGREE TOWARD KRWI BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS AND MOS...AND AS A RESULT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
1000-850MB THICKNESSES COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. STILL...HIGHS 85 TO 90.
THE VERY LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT QPF MOVING IN A LITTLE MORE IN EARNEST
INTO NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 02Z OR SO. MID-LEVEL
COOLING AND OVERALL MOISTENING ON THE NAM IS EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT...
AND THE LATEST HRRR WRF SUGGESTS UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO KENTUCKY ABLE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO AT LEAST THE TRIAD AND TOWARD KTDF AS
MOISTENING...AND COOLING ALOFT...OCCUR. FOR THE LATE MORNING
UPDATE...RAISED POPS INTO CHANCE FOR THAT AREA. WILL NOTE THE LATEST
NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS INTO CATEGORICAL IN THE TRIAD FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...DIMINISHING BUT STILL HIGHER ELSEWHERE. AFTER A REVIEW OF
THE GFS...MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME FURTHER INCREASE FOR MANY PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLOUDINESS...AGAIN
MAINLY MID AND UPPER...WILL BECOME PREVALENT TONIGHT AS THE
APPROACHING FRONT TRANSLATES INTO THE LEE TROUGH. MINS WILL BE MILD
AND SEASONABLE...UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...TRANSITION TO A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF WILL
BE UNDERWAY AND THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL TROFFING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. THICKNESSES ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH AND SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
80S. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HAMPER INSOLATION A BIT...MOSTLY MID
80S WEST TO UPPER 80S EAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN INCREASINGLY DISTURBED FLOW...BUT ITS
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A PARTICULAR FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME TO
FOCUS ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FAVORING THE
WEST AND NORTH.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
PERHAPS A PRECEDING MCV FROM CONVECTION INITIATED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL MIGRATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUE. THESE FEATURES WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY AN ELONGATED BUT STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN NW FLOW FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER VA/NC TUE WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH...AND THIS MERGED BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUE NIGHT. WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND WITH FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...THE WEAK (~20
METER/12 HR) HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/FRONT
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUE. THE SLOW SOUTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL END
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER BY WED MORNING.
WHILE WSW MEAN FLOW ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE UNDERLYING SURFACE FRONT
SUGGESTS DOWNPOURS/ LOCALIZED FLOODING IN TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE GREATEST IMPACT...INCREASING MID LEVEL
FLOW/BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS MAY ALSO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH PRECIPITATION-LOADED STRONG WET MICROBURST WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST MAXIMUM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2 COULD BE
NEARLY DOUBLED LOCALLY INVOF OUTFLOW/BACKED SURFACE FLOW...WHICH
COULD SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...THOUGH SUCH A
SCENARIO WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MESO AND STORM SCALE INFLUENCES WITH
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY BEYOND A FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...WILL INCLUDE
ONLY A GENERIC ONE SENTENCE MENTION OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN
THE HWO FOR NOW FOR TUE. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND STORMY CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NW...TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER
THE SOUTH...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES - IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 80S - IN WEAK POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED GENERALLY EAST TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER SC THROUGH THU GIVEN CONTINUED FRONT-
PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT IN THE BASE OF BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. WILL
ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THIS FRONT AND HIGHER BL MOISTURE...AND ALSO TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER
WHERE A FEW WEAKENING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DRIFT AFTER INITIATION AND
PROPAGATION FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES. A WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY...TO
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY...WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE...AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS...BY THE WEEKEND. A RISK OF A FEW LATE AFTERNOON PULSE
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONSEQUENTLY INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITIES...AROUND 20 PERCENT OR SO...BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...WITH 10-12KTS
SUSTAINED TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-22KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND ALTOCUMULUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWEST WILL GRAZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
AREA...PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE GSO/INT VICINITY
AFTER 06Z.
IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...DJF/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF/MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
931 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH AND SURFACE TROUGHINESS
SHARPENING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE 12Z KGSO
SOUNDING...AS WELL AS THE SOUNDING FROM KMHX...SHOWED A DECENT CAP
REMAINING AROUND 700MB...WHILE THE KRNK SOUNDING INDICATED JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 700MB ALBEIT WITH A WEAK CAP
IN PLACE. THE RAP SOUNDINGS FORECAST THIS CAP ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS...UPPER LEVELS
COOL...AND THE OVERALL MOISTURE OF THE AIR MASS INCREASES. THE RAP
FORECASTS 850MB SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANY MODEST UVV
WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES HOLDING OFF UNTIL 00Z AND
AFTER. THE LATEST HRRR WRF IS DRY AS WELL...ALONG WITH QPF FROM THE
RAP. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY...AND EXPECT PERIODS OF
MOSTLY MID- AND SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO RESULT IN A
PARTLY-TO-MOSTLY SUNNY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALREADY THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS AND...BASED ON THE
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND THE WINDS ALOFT ON THE KRAX 88D VAD WIND
PROFILE...INCREASED THE GUSTS A TRIFLE ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHEAST AREAS TO MORE AROUND 20KT. WHILE THE MAV MOS HAS SIMPLY
BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...THE MET MOS IS CLOSER TODAY TO THE MAV AND
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LOWERED A DEGREE TOWARD KRWI BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS AND MOS...AND AS A RESULT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
1000-850MB THICKNESSES COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. STILL...HIGHS 85 TO 90.
CLOUDINESS...AGAIN MAINLY MID AND UPPER...WILL BECOME PREVALENT
TONIGHT AS THE APPROACHING FRONT TRANSLATES INTO THE LEE TROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES ARE SMALL AND WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
WHICH WILL BE SKIRTED BY THE REMNANT OF A WEAKENING VORT MAX INDUCED
BY DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. MINS
WILL BE MILD AND SEASONABLE...UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...TRANSITION TO A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF WILL
BE UNDERWAY AND THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL TROFFING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. THICKNESSES ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH AND SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
80S. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HAMPER INSOLATION A BIT...MOSTLY MID
80S WEST TO UPPER 80S EAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN INCREASINGLY DISTURBED FLOW...BUT ITS
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A PARTICULAR FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME TO
FOCUS ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FAVORING THE
WEST AND NORTH.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
PERHAPS A PRECEDING MCV FROM CONVECTION INITIATED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL MIGRATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUE. THESE FEATURES WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY AN ELONGATED BUT STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN NW FLOW FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER VA/NC TUE WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH...AND THIS MERGED BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUE NIGHT. WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND WITH FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...THE WEAK (~20
METER/12 HR) HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/FRONT
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUE. THE SLOW SOUTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL END
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER BY WED MORNING.
WHILE WSW MEAN FLOW ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE UNDERLYING SURFACE FRONT
SUGGESTS DOWNPOURS/ LOCALIZED FLOODING IN TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE GREATEST IMPACT...INCREASING MID LEVEL
FLOW/BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS MAY ALSO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH PRECIPITATION-LOADED STRONG WET MICROBURST WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST MAXIMUM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2 COULD BE
NEARLY DOUBLED LOCALLY INVOF OUTFLOW/BACKED SURFACE FLOW...WHICH
COULD SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...THOUGH SUCH A
SCENARIO WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MESO AND STORM SCALE INFLUENCES WITH
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY BEYOND A FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...WILL INCLUDE
ONLY A GENERIC ONE SENTENCE MENTION OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN
THE HWO FOR NOW FOR TUE. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND STORMY CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NW...TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER
THE SOUTH...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES - IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 80S - IN WEAK POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED GENERALLY EAST TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER SC THROUGH THU GIVEN CONTINUED FRONT-
PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT IN THE BASE OF BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. WILL
ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
THIS FRONT AND HIGHER BL MOISTURE...AND ALSO TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER
WHERE A FEW WEAKENING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DRIFT AFTER INITIATION AND
PROPAGATION FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES. A WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY...TO
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY...WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE...AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS...BY THE WEEKEND. A RISK OF A FEW LATE AFTERNOON PULSE
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONSEQUENTLY INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITIES...AROUND 20 PERCENT OR SO...BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...WITH 10-12KTS
SUSTAINED TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-22KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND ALTOCUMULUS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWEST WILL GRAZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
AREA...PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE GSO/INT VICINITY
AFTER 06Z.
IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...DJF/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF/MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1258 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
NO SURPRISES SO FAR FROM THE EVOLVING WEATHER. CUMULUS RAPIDLY
FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE WITH ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS SLOWLY DEVELOPING. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT
NOT WIDESPREAD. DROPPED THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO ISOLATED.
RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE A DEGREE OR TWO SOUTH CENTRAL. SO FAR
WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN OPENING UP AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AS
FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NORTH WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGES
THIS FORECAST ARE WINDS FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UPPED WINDS TO
20 TO 35 MPH. STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL WATCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN STARTING TO INCH CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. DID
LOWER SKY COVER ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO DROPPED
THE MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL AFTERNOON. LATEST 06Z GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM KISN AND KMOT INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO
DEVELOP BEFORE 18 UTC. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTH FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE BORDER. LATEST 06 UTC NAM KEEPS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
BORDER EXCEPT FOR MAYBE CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 10Z RAP ALSO KEEPS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOW EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CEILINGS IN CANADA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. MOS GUIDANCE...MODEL RH FIELDS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME OF THESE LOW CEILINGS COULD
SPREAD INTO OUR CWA...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS CANADIAN BORDER BY AROUND 18Z AS UPPER LOW CLIPS
NORTHEASTERN ND. PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT BY 06Z.
WITH REGARD TO WINDS TODAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/BUFKIT DATA LIMIT
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS TO 30 KTS...SO ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY EXPECTED BUT DO NOT SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
MET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING
ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL USE A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR MOST FIELDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SHIFT OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND... WHICH WOULD YIELD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE FORECAST TRANSITION TO A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. DIFFERENCES THAT DO CROP UP WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RESULTING FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. AT NOON CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE TSRA WILL BE ISOLATED...LEFT OUT OF
THE TAF AND JUST MENTIONED VCSH. CLOUDS FROM REGINA TO ESTEVAN
SASKATCHEWAN CURRENTLY SHOWING UP BELOW 2000 AGL...SO ADDED MVFR
CEILINGS TO KMOT BY THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
FROM KMOT-KJMS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR FROM KISN- KDIK- KBIS.;
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1018 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN OPENING UP AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AS
FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NORTH WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGES
THIS FORECAST ARE WINDS FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UPPED WINDS TO
20 TO 35 MPH. STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL WATCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN STARTING TO INCH CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. DID
LOWER SKY COVER ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO DROPPED
THE MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL AFTERNOON. LATEST 06Z GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM KISN AND KMOT INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO
DEVELOP BEFORE 18 UTC. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTH FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE BORDER. LATEST 06 UTC NAM KEEPS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
BORDER EXCEPT FOR MAYBE CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 10Z RAP ALSO KEEPS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOW EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CEILINGS IN CANADA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. MOS GUIDANCE...MODEL RH FIELDS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME OF THESE LOW CEILINGS COULD
SPREAD INTO OUR CWA...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS CANADIAN BORDER BY AROUND 18Z AS UPPER LOW CLIPS
NORTHEASTERN ND. PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT BY 06Z.
WITH REGARD TO WINDS TODAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/BUFKIT DATA LIMIT
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS TO 30 KTS...SO ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY EXPECTED BUT DO NOT SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
MET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING
ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL USE A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR MOST FIELDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SHIFT OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND... WHICH WOULD YIELD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE FORECAST TRANSITION TO A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. DIFFERENCES THAT DO CROP UP WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RESULTING FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
AT 10 AM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN
MONTANA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION
INCLUDE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS. THINK MVFR CEILINGS
IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOULD LIFT TO LOW VFR BY THE TIME THEY
DROP INTO NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS 15-18Z SUNDAY AS
AFTERNOON CU REGENERATE. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTH SO INCLUDED A VCSH FOR KMOT AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN STARTING TO INCH CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. DID
LOWER SKY COVER ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO DROPPED
THE MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL AFTERNOON. LATEST 06Z GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM KISN AND KMOT INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO
DEVELOP BEFORE 18 UTC. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTH FOR POSSIBLE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE BORDER. LATEST 06 UTC NAM KEEPS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
BORDER EXCEPT FOR MAYBE CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 10Z RAP ALSO KEEPS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOW EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CEILINGS IN CANADA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. MOS GUIDANCE...MODEL RH FIELDS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME OF THESE LOW CEILINGS COULD
SPREAD INTO OUR CWA...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS CANADIAN BORDER BY AROUND 18Z AS UPPER LOW CLIPS
NORTHEASTERN ND. PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT BY 06Z.
WITH REGARD TO WINDS TODAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/BUFKIT DATA LIMIT
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS TO 30 KTS...SO ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY EXPECTED BUT DO NOT SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
MET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING
ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL USE A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR MOST FIELDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SHIFT OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND... WHICH WOULD YIELD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE FORECAST TRANSITION TO A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. DIFFERENCES THAT DO CROP UP WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RESULTING FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THINK MVFR
CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOULD LIFT TO LOW VFR BY THE
TIME THEY DROP INTO NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER BREEZY DAY EXPECTED...
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST 20G30 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS 15-18Z SUNDAY AS
AFTERNOON CU REGENERATE. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTH SO INCLUDED A VCSH FOR KMOT AND KISN. MAY
GET NEAR MVFR CIGS AT NORTH TERMINALS AS WELL SUNDAY 17-23Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
947 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. LATER ON
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
IT WILL BE A DIFFICULT NEAR TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL GET. HAVE USED A BLEND OF RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR TO BRING LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RIVER WITH DECREASING CHANCES NORTH OF THE RIVER. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS BEING CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/WV ALONG
WITH SOME 850 MB-700 MB DEFORMATION. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS ONE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MORNING WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH EXITING FIRST AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE COLD FRONT/SHORT WAVE TANDEM EXIT
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT IN TERMS OF TRYING TO
TIME POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
S/WV ENERGY NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY
INTO OUR REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO BRING TEMPO CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK. SO WILL USE
VCSH/VCTS THROUGH 12Z AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR SMALL
ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THE
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR MIST WILL BE LOW...SO HAVE REMOVED. THIS WILL
BE CONDITIONAL AT KCVG/KLUK SHOULD PCPN OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT AND
SEE ON THIS AS STATED ABOVE.
ON TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV PASSES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH. MODELS BRING ANOTHER S/WV IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. FOR THE 30
HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE MOVING BY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
AT WHICH THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
127 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES AS NEEDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR NOW BUT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. SUSPECT BY MID
AFTERNOON THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
U.S. 30 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA SO EARLY ON WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS SE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT HOWEVER DROPPED THE MENTION OF PRECIP AS DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODELS BRING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO THE VICINITY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL BEGIN MONDAY DRY BUT WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NAM
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SIMILAR BUILDING
DRIER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHILE
KEEPING ANY SURFACE LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF/GFS HERE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO DRY AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE FLATTENING TO SOME DEGREE. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE
AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS
THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SHRA/TS AND
LIKELY COOLER TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. ALL IN ALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...BUT MAY GET WARM IF WE TREND
TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AT H8. WHILE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...SLOWLY BRING UP PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE LAKESHORE AND SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF A YNG TO FDY LINE. IN TAFS
JUST WENT VCSH. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE. SHOULD
ALSO BE A PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. AS CLOUDS CLEAR MAY LEAD TO SOME FG/BR TO DEAL WITH MONDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A LITTLE FURTHER AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO
CANADA. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE TODAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM. FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME 4 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE EAST END WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL HOLD
BACK ON A SMALL CRAFT ADV...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
DEVELOPMENTS/CHANGES. NEXT FRONT ON THE HEELS OF TODAY/S AND WILL
CROSS THE LAKE 24-30 HOURS LATER...MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE REALIZED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WED-THU.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1120 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT HELP CAUSE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE SHUNTED
SOUTH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE...ONE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED ON
THE 13Z RAP MODEL FROM CMH TO CVG MOVES ACROSS NRN CNTRL WV AROUND
18/19Z AND WEAKENS. IN ITS WAKE...MORE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
UP THE OHIO RIVER REACHING HTS BY 21Z.
WILL BE FASTER INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHER DISTURBANCES MAY FOLLOW FOR
SRN COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
1.5 TO 1.6 ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILN AND ILX. MODELS SHOW PWS
PEAKING TONIGHT AROUND 1.8 INCHES. OVERALL...ADDED A WATER CONCERN
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WEST TO EAST TRAINING DEVELOPING IN THIS
PATTERN. SO INCLUDED A WATER HAZARD MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING.
THINKING AT 14Z WAS THAT THIS THREAT WOULD SETTLE SOUTH WITH
TIME...SO BY OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA MORE VULNERABLE THAN
THE NORTH.
OF COURSE...WILL HAVE TO JUST MONITOR RADAR...ON HOW THIS ALL
EXACTLY SETS UP AND UNFOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES ACROSS THE OH RIVER BY 12-13Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS MODELS SUGGEST PW
AROUND 1.25 COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PCPN.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES TUESDAY...CONTINUING WITH
LIKELY POPS NEARLY AREA WIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PW AROUND
1.6 INCHES...LESS THAN 25 KNOTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SFC CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMP FORECAST...CONTINUES TOO LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
80S IN THE LOWLANDS. LOWS SHOULD BE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST...SHOULD ONLY SEE
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP UP THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TO ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SATURDAY AND INCLUDED CHANCE POPS WITH THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STILL...THE GREATER
GENERAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF A CRW-HTS LINE.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT AS ALWAYS
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VIS IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY AROUND 06Z AND AFTER...THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1003 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT HELP CAUSE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE SHUNTED
SOUTH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE...ONE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED ON
THE 13Z RAP MODEL FROM CMH TO CVG MOVES ACROSS NRN CNTRL WV AROUND
18/19Z AND WEAKENS. IN ITS WAKE...MORE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
UP THE OHIO RIVER REACHING HTS BY 21Z.
WILL BE FASTER INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHER DISTURBANCES MAY FOLLOW FOR SRN COUNTIES
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 ON
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILN AND ILX. MODELS SHOULD PW(S) PEAKING TONIGHT
AROUND 1.8 INCHES. OVERALL...ADDED A WATER CONCERN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WEST TO EAST TRAINING DEVELOPING IN THIS PATTERN.
SO INCLUDED A WATER HAZARD MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. THINKING AT 14Z
WAS THIS THREAT WOULD SETTLE SOUTH WITH TIME...SO BY
OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA MORE VULNERABLE THAN THE NORTH.
OF COURSE...WILL HAVE TO JUST MONITOR RADAR...ON HOW THIS ALL
EXACTLY SETS UP AND UNFOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES ACROSS THE OH RIVER BY 12-13Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS MODELS SUGGEST PW
AROUND 1.25 COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PCPN.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES TUESDAY...CONTINUING WITH
LIKELY POPS NEARLY AREA WIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PW AROUND
1.6 INCHES...LESS THAN 25 KNOTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SFC CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMP FORECAST...CONTINUES TOO LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
80S IN THE LOWLANDS. LOWS SHOULD BE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST...SHOULD ONLY SEE
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP UP THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TO ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SATURDAY AND INCLUDED CHANCE POPS WITH THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STILL...THE GREATER
GENERAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF A CRW-HTS LINE.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT AS ALWAYS
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VIS IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY AROUND 06Z AND AFTER...THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
932 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES AS NEEDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR NOW BUT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. SUSPECT BY MID
AFTERNOON THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
U.S. 30 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA SO EARLY ON WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS SE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT HOWEVER DROPPED THE MENTION OF PRECIP AS DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODELS BRING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO THE VICINITY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL BEGIN MONDAY DRY BUT WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NAM
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SIMILAR BUILDING
DRIER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHILE
KEEPING ANY SURFACE LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF/GFS HERE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO DRY AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE FLATTENING TO SOME DEGREE. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE
AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS
THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SHRA/TS AND
LIKELY COOLER TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. ALL IN ALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...BUT MAY GET WARM IF WE TREND
TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AT H8. WHILE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...SLOWLY BRING UP PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WERE/ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. COULD VERY
WELL SEE NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND/OR A
PROLONGING OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. TOLEDO MAY BE IN THE CLEAR
ALREADY. THUNDER CHANCES UNCERTAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER AND INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED AND FRONT IS WEAKENING.
CEILINGS...EVEN WITHIN THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE LARGELY VFR.
STILL WOULD THINK THAT WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
SHOULD DEVELOP A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING...LIFTING BACK TO VFR
LATER TODAY. WEST WIND...GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE
SOME FG/BR TO DEAL WITH MONDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A LITTLE FURTHER AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO
CANADA. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE TODAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM. FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME 4 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE EAST END WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL HOLD
BACK ON A SMALL CRAFT ADV...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
DEVELOPMENTS/CHANGES. NEXT FRONT ON THE HEELS OF TODAY/S AND WILL
CROSS THE LAKE 24-30 HOURS LATER...MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE REALIZED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WED-THU.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
318 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WET PATTERN SETTING OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS MODELS DID
NOT INITIALIZE VERY WELL. ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION
HAS KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE THAN WHAT THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING. THUS THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF PEAK HEATING AND THE EXPECTED UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS NOT THE CASE AT LEAST SO FAR. HOWEVER...WITHIN
THE LAST 45 MINUTES A THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER PANOLA
COUNTY. THE NAM AND RAP SHOWED WHATEVER ACTIVITY DEVELOPED DYING
OUT AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE...OTHER MODELS LIKE THE HRRR SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH IS DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OCCUR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BUT NOTHING AHEAD OF IT YET OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS.
THE HRRR BRINGS THE ACTIVITY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BY MIDNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS
EVENING. IN FACT...THE ECMWF SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY THE ENTIRE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND THE NAM BOTH SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET.
WITH SUCH A WIDE RANGE OF SCENARIOS...HAVE KEPT 40 POPS ACROSS
FROM THE TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI LINE NORTHWARD MAINLY DUE TO THE
CONVECTION YOU SEE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THINK THIS CONVECTION WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW MORE POP UP DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. DON/T
KNOW IF ANY STORM WILL BE SEVERE BUT WILL KEEP THE STRONG TO
SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
MONDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD
COVER MAY AFFECT INSTABILITY LIKE IT DID TODAY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL
UNDERNEATH SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY BE A BIGGEST ISSUE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TOMORROW. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD. HIGHS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AROUND.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....THE GFS SLIDES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD THE FRONT UP OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS AND ITS REALLY ANYBODY/S GUESS WHICH IS CORRECT. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE GFS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO START MOVING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ON
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
NEXT WEEKEND...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. TIMING OF
TSRAS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE SO VCTS LOOKS GOOD FROM
16/21Z-17/01Z. OVERNIGHT IS A QUESTION MARK. MODELS DIFFER ON
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT BUT SINCE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
LATER ON MONDAY DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH VCSH OVERNIGHT AND
INTRODUCE A VCTS BY 17/15Z. TSRA COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER THE
END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE S/SW.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 75 86 71 86 / 40 70 80 40
MKL 71 85 69 85 / 40 70 80 30
JBR 72 85 69 87 / 40 70 40 10
TUP 71 88 72 84 / 30 70 70 60
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1034 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...LOWERING POPS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RESIDUAL RAIN-COOLED
AIRMASS FROM LAST NIGHT/S THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP IN THIS REGION OF HIGHER STABILITY.
ALSO...PRONOUNCED INVERSION SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FROM KAMA INDICATES
THAT SUBSTANTIAL CAP IS IN PLACE. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AT
11 PM. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
TERMAINAL...APPROACHING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL CAUSE IMPACTS TO
EACH TERMINAL. KDHT WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED FIRST AS CONVECTION IS
MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO. THE NEXT TERMINAL TO BE IMPACTED WILL
LIKELY BY KGUY THEN KAMA SOON AFTER. AS CONVECTION MOVES OVER THE
TERMINALS EXPECT LIMITED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CEILINGS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE INITIAL TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. BY
9...ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE AND LEAVE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THE 18TH. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ON
TIME AND LOCATION OF OCCURRENCE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF PREVAILING
GROUPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 323 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES UNTIL 11 PM. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. DUE TO SATURATED SOILS
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOCALIZED AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TOMORROW REMAIN ACTIVE DAYS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO COME UP THIS MORNING BUT HAVE
BEGUN TO QUICKLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT
THE SLOW HEATING WOULD DELAY INITIATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A MILD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ALSO
CONVECTION OVER THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS HAS INITIATED ONLY ABOUT A
HOUR BEHIND WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE 14Z RUC HRRR. AS SUCH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEVERE THREAT START TIME OF 6 PM REMAINS REALISTIC. WILL
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS IT COULD BACK BUILD ALONG A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT INTO
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST
UNTIL 2-3AM TUESDAY WHEN STRONG CAPPING WILL SETUP
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY LAST WELL PAST 3 AM.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A CONTINUAL DECREASING TREND OF CIN
VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DURING THE
SAME TIME SHOWING AN INCREASE OF SBCAPE VALUES. FORECAST SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT CONTINUE
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...MOIST SOILS FROM PREVIOUS
RAINS...AND PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH WILL KEEP LOCALIZED AND FLASH
FLOODING AS A CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.
TOMORROW MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND DEEP SHEAR OF 35-45
KT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES YET
AGAIN. THE TIME FRAME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE AROUND 4 PM WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAXIMIZING AFTER 6 PM. STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 3 AM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO
THE PANHANDLES AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST AND BACK TO THE WEST WHICH WILL OPEN UP THE
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AXIS PLACEMENT THIS FAR OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
13/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
730 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
LATEST WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. BASED ON THE SEVERE HISTORY OF SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SOUTH TO INCLUDE OUR NORTHERN
THREE CONCHO VALLEY COUNTIES AND OUR NORTHERN HEARTLAND COUNTIES.
I UPDATED OUR HAZARD GRID TO INCLUDE THESE NEW COUNTIES AND ISSUED
A NEW WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323.
OUR LATEST ZONE PRODUCT REFLECTS THIS UPDATE.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND
STRATUS TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
LATER TONIGHT. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION...
LOOK FOR CHALLENGING FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE RUC INDICATES WE COULD HAVE AN
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE
THIS COMPLEX MAY MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...I DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN ANY OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT
FOR ABILENE. LATER TONIGHT...THE NAM BRING STRATUS AND MVFR
CEILINGS BACK TO JUNCTION. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY/
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY...BUT ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AN ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD IN THE
BIG COUNTRY AT 3 PM...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM A MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT...EAST OF
LUBBOCK THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. IT MAY BE LATE EVENING FOR STORMS
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FROM SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD.
WITH SB CAPES OF 3000 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM SHEARS UP TO 40 KTS (BIG
COUNTRY)THIS EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SPC DAY 1
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE
BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND.
THERE IS A SIMILAR SETUP FOR TUESDAY...WITH DISSIPATING FRONT IN
THE BIG COUNTRY BEING THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON.
04
LONG TERM...
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW POPS
WERE INCLUDED FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE BY 9 PM BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A DECENT MID
LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH TX. I DID INCLUDE LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF ABILENE THROUGH 18Z TO
CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BECOME VERY SCARCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. I WOULD NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW AREAS COULD REACH TRIPLE DIGITS BUT I
THINK THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH BRIEF STRATUS
EPISODES OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. DEEP DIURNAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
DEWPOINTS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTING
THAT THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE RECENT RUNS OF THE
GFS/GEM REGARDING THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF TD 2. THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS BRINGING A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WAVE UP THE RIO GRANDE
AND LIFTING IT NORTH ACROSS WEST TX OVER THE WEEKEND...VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUN IS KEEPING ANY REMNANTS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...
ADVECTING IT NEARLY DUE WEST INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE TPC FORECAST. GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THIS STORM
AND ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE LATEST SOLUTIONS LOOK VERY
REASONABLE. THUS...NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE NEAR WEST
CENTRAL TX.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SOMEWHAT
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 92 72 95 75 / 50 30 30 10 5
SAN ANGELO 72 94 73 96 75 / 30 20 20 5 0
JUNCTION 73 93 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 5 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER/04/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
655 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND
STRATUS TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
LATER TONIGHT. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR CHALLENGING FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE RUC INDICATES WE COULD HAVE AN
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE
THIS COMPLEX MAY MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...I DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN ANY OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT
FOR ABILENE. LATER TONIGHT...THE NAM BRING STRATUS AND MVFR
CEILINGS BACK TO JUNCTION. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY/
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY...BUT ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AN ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD IN THE
BIG COUNTRY AT 3 PM...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM A MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT...EAST OF
LUBBOCK THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. IT MAY BE LATE EVENING FOR STORMS
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FROM SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD.
WITH SB CAPES OF 3000 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM SHEARS UP TO 40 KTS (BIG
COUNTRY)THIS EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SPC DAY 1
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE
BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND.
THERE IS A SIMILAR SETUP FOR TUESDAY...WITH DISSIPATING FRONT IN
THE BIG COUNTRY BEING THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON.
04
LONG TERM...
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW POPS
WERE INCLUDED FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE BY 9 PM BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A DECENT MID
LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH TX. I DID INCLUDE LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF ABILENE THROUGH 18Z TO
CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BECOME VERY SCARCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. I WOULD NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW AREAS COULD REACH TRIPLE DIGITS BUT I
THINK THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH BRIEF STRATUS
EPISODES OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. DEEP DIURNAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
DEWPOINTS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTING
THAT THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE RECENT RUNS OF THE
GFS/GEM REGARDING THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF TD 2. THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS BRINGING A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WAVE UP THE RIO GRANDE
AND LIFTING IT NORTH ACROSS WEST TX OVER THE WEEKEND...VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUN IS KEEPING ANY REMNANTS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...
ADVECTING IT NEARLY DUE WEST INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE TPC FORECAST. GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THIS STORM
AND ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE LATEST SOLUTIONS LOOK VERY
REASONABLE. THUS...NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE NEAR WEST
CENTRAL TX.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SOMEWHAT
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 92 72 95 75 / 50 30 30 10 5
SAN ANGELO 72 94 73 96 75 / 30 20 20 5 0
JUNCTION 73 93 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 5 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER/04/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
615 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
TERMAINAL...APPROACHING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL CAUSE IMPACTS TO
EACH TERMINAL. KDHT WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED FIRST AS CONVECTION IS
MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO. THE NEXT TERMINAL TO BE IMPACTED WILL
LIKELY BY KGUY THEN KAMA SOON AFTER. AS CONVECTION MOVES OVER THE
TERMINALS EXPECT LIMITED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CEILINGS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE INITIAL TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. BY
9...ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE AND LEAVE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THE 18TH. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ON
TIME AND LOCATION OF OCCURRENCE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF PREVAILING
GROUPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 323 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES UNTIL 11 PM. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. DUE TO SATURATED SOILS
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOCALIZED AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TOMORROW REMAIN ACTIVE DAYS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO COME UP THIS MORNING BUT HAVE
BEGUN TO QUICKLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT
THE SLOW HEATING WOULD DELAY INITIATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A MILD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ALSO
CONVECTION OVER THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS HAS INITIATED ONLY ABOUT A
HOUR BEHIND WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE 14Z RUC HRRR. AS SUCH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEVERE THREAT START TIME OF 6 PM REMAINS REALISTIC. WILL
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS IT COULD BACK BUILD ALONG A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT INTO
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST
UNTIL 2-3AM TUESDAY WHEN STRONG CAPPING WILL SETUP
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY LAST WELL PAST 3 AM.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A CONTINUAL DECREASING TREND OF CIN
VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DURING THE
SAME TIME SHOWING AN INCREASE OF SBCAPE VALUES. FORECAST SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT CONTINUE
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...MOIST SOILS FROM PREVIOUS
RAINS...AND PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH WILL KEEP LOCALIZED AND FLASH
FLOODING AS A CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.
TOMORROW MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND DEEP SHEAR OF 35-45
KT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES YET
AGAIN. THE TIME FRAME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE AROUND 4 PM WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAXIMIZING AFTER 6 PM. STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 3 AM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO
THE PANHANDLES AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST AND BACK TO THE WEST WHICH WILL OPEN UP THE
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AXIS PLACEMENT THIS FAR OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
251 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A LESS ACTIVE AFTERNOON TODAY VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE
OLD UPPER TROUGH NOW LONG GONE AND AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS EXPANDED
WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL TX. THOUGH A ROGUE ISOLATED STRONG
STORM IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON...BETTER CHANCES
WILL LIKELY COME LATER TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES WILL MOVE ESE TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW STORMS WERE ALREADY POPPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.
HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR/ARW-EAST/TEXAS TECH WRF MODELS ALL SHOW
CURRENT ISOLATED STORMS OVER NW OK INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN A
WEST-EAST LINE THIS EVENING...THEN DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RED
RIVER LATE TONIGHT. TIMING THE LINEAR MCS TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC HOWEVER AS THE HRRR IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER TWO
MODELS IN BRINGING ACTIVITY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CONSIDERING
WHERE THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING AT THE MOMENT...WILL GO WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING MOSTLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
POPS WILL VARY FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AREA
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE LINEAR MCS
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE VEERING/WEAKENING OF A 30-35KT NOCTURNAL
LLJ NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST FOR LATER MONDAY AND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BECOMES A
BIT MORE DIFFICULT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AND
CENTRAL TX AND WHERE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTH. HAVE LINGERED BEST CHANCES AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THE WEAKENING COMPLEX AND A SHORTWAVE
PASSING SOUTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS. LOW CHANCES LOOK PRUDENT FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR ANY OUTFLOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. BY MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
FROM WEST TX AND WILL CARRY HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT HITS
THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON MORE SHORTWAVE
WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
TOWARD OUR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOR THE PM HOURS ONCE AGAIN. FEEL THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP AREAS FROM WACO AND ATHENS SOUTHWARD MAINLY
CAPPED AND DRY...THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT OVER OUR CENTRAL TX COUNTIES.
THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD OVER NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. HAVE LINGERED LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA
WHERE SOME WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL REMAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL BE
WANING BY THEN ON RAIN CHANCES. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/HOT WEATHER
TAKE HOLD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH RAIN
CHANCES NEAR ZERO. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AND 100 BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 93 75 89 75 / 20 20 30 30 20
WACO, TX 75 95 75 92 75 / 5 0 20 10 10
PARIS, TX 74 90 72 87 71 / 50 50 20 40 40
DENTON, TX 76 91 73 88 73 / 30 30 30 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 75 92 72 88 72 / 30 30 20 40 30
DALLAS, TX 77 94 75 89 76 / 20 20 20 30 20
TERRELL, TX 75 93 74 89 73 / 20 20 20 30 20
CORSICANA, TX 75 95 74 91 74 / 5 5 20 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 75 96 73 93 73 / 5 0 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 75 93 73 89 71 / 30 20 40 30 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
CAVOK TAFS NOW NOT SO CERTAIN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT CONVECTION ORIGINATING IN THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING MAY
FORM A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT MIGHT MOVE TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. HRRR FORECASTS A MIDNIGHT ARRIVAL. TTU WRF
HAS NOT RUN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS YET...BUT HINTS AT AN
ARRIVAL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ANY TSRA TO THIS TAF BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR GUIDANCE TO SEE IF MORE MODELS PRODUCE THIS
MCS. TSRA WILL THEN HAVE TO BE ADDED TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
AT WACO...INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING
MORNING STRATUS...AND WILL INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE SUNRISE.
84
&&
.UPDATE...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
UPPER HIGH EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. BEST MOISTURE
PER GOES SATELLITE PWAT IMAGERY IS ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. ACCAS SEEN OUTSIDE INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
HIGH-RES HRRR/RAP AND TECH WRF TO A LESSER EXTENT ARE THE ONLY
MODELS CLOSE TO ANY REALITY IN THIS WEAK FLOW SITUATION TODAY.
WILL ADJUST POPS FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THESE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN...AS SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES TRANSVERSES
EAST WITH TIME. SOME RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO PLAY A
ROLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING
OUTDOOR EVENTS FATHERS DAY WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20/I-30.
DID LOWER HIGHS SOME OUT WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
CURRENT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BREAKS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS...THE SEMI-
WET PERIOD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRY AND WARM/HOT
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY STILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND TEXAS TECH WRF
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE HRRR MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE...SO HAVE JUST GONE
WITH 20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES FOR
TODAY WHERE HAVE PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS AND THE NORTHEAST WHERE
THERE ARE 30 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS TO BE
CLOSER TO WHAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE INDICATING. AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
GRAHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECWMF...CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
NAM...THAT THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND STALL IT NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT...SO HAVE
PLACED 30-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD AND AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 76 93 73 87 / 20 10 20 40 30
WACO, TX 96 75 95 74 92 / 10 10 10 20 20
PARIS, TX 92 73 90 71 85 / 30 20 30 40 30
DENTON, TX 92 75 91 72 86 / 20 20 20 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 71 86 / 20 20 20 40 30
DALLAS, TX 95 76 94 74 89 / 20 10 20 40 30
TERRELL, TX 94 74 93 73 89 / 20 10 20 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 95 74 94 73 91 / 10 10 10 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 96 74 93 72 93 / 10 10 10 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 74 93 72 87 / 20 10 20 40 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1053 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
UPPER HIGH EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. BEST MOISTURE
PER GOES SATELLITE PWAT IMAGERY IS ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. ACCAS SEEN OUTSIDE INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
HIGH-RES HRRR/RAP AND TECH WRF TO A LESSER EXTENT ARE THE ONLY
MODELS CLOSE TO ANY REALITY IN THIS WEAK FLOW SITUATION TODAY.
WILL ADJUST POPS FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THESE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN...AS SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES TRANSVERSES
EAST WITH TIME. SOME RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO PLAY A
ROLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THOSE PLANNING
OUTDOOR EVENTS FATHERS DAY WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20/I-30.
DID LOWER HIGHS SOME OUT WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
CURRENT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET...ALTHOUGH CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE...AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. SCT/BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BREAKS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS...THE SEMI-
WET PERIOD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRY AND WARM/HOT
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY STILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND TEXAS TECH WRF
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE HRRR MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE...SO HAVE JUST GONE
WITH 20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES FOR
TODAY WHERE HAVE PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS AND THE NORTHEAST WHERE
THERE ARE 30 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS TO BE
CLOSER TO WHAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE INDICATING. AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
GRAHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECWMF...CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
NAM...THAT THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND STALL IT NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT...SO HAVE
PLACED 30-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD AND AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 76 93 73 87 / 20 10 20 40 30
WACO, TX 96 75 95 74 92 / 10 10 10 20 20
PARIS, TX 92 73 90 71 85 / 30 20 30 40 30
DENTON, TX 92 75 91 72 86 / 20 20 20 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 71 86 / 20 20 20 40 30
DALLAS, TX 95 76 94 74 89 / 20 10 20 40 30
TERRELL, TX 94 74 93 73 89 / 20 10 20 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 95 74 94 73 91 / 10 10 10 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 96 74 93 72 93 / 10 10 10 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 74 93 72 87 / 20 10 20 40 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
85/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
624 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET...ALTHOUGH CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE...AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. SCT/BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BREAKS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS...THE SEMI-
WET PERIOD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRY AND WARM/HOT
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY STILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND TEXAS TECH WRF
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE HRRR MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE...SO HAVE JUST GONE
WITH 20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES FOR
TODAY WHERE HAVE PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS AND THE NORTHEAST WHERE
THERE ARE 30 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS TO BE
CLOSER TO WHAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE INDICATING. AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
GRAHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECWMF...CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
NAM...THAT THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND STALL IT NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT...SO HAVE
PLACED 30-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD AND AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 76 93 73 87 / 20 10 20 40 30
WACO, TX 94 75 95 74 92 / 20 10 10 20 20
PARIS, TX 92 73 90 71 85 / 30 20 30 40 30
DENTON, TX 92 75 91 72 86 / 20 20 20 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 71 86 / 20 20 20 40 30
DALLAS, TX 95 76 94 74 89 / 20 10 20 40 30
TERRELL, TX 94 74 93 73 89 / 20 10 20 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 94 74 94 73 91 / 20 10 10 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 93 74 93 72 93 / 20 10 10 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 74 93 72 87 / 20 10 20 40 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BREAKS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS...THE SEMI-
WET PERIOD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRY AND WARM/HOT
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY STILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND TEXAS TECH WRF
ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE HRRR MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE...SO HAVE JUST GONE
WITH 20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES FOR
TODAY WHERE HAVE PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS AND THE NORTHEAST WHERE
THERE ARE 30 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS TO BE
CLOSER TO WHAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE INDICATING. AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE KEPT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
GRAHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS...ECWMF...CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
NAM...THAT THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND STALL IT NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT...SO HAVE
PLACED 30-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD AND AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 76 93 73 87 / 20 10 20 40 30
WACO, TX 94 75 95 74 92 / 20 10 10 20 20
PARIS, TX 92 73 90 71 85 / 30 20 30 40 30
DENTON, TX 92 75 91 72 86 / 20 20 20 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 71 86 / 20 20 20 40 30
DALLAS, TX 95 76 94 74 89 / 20 10 20 40 30
TERRELL, TX 94 74 93 73 89 / 20 10 20 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 94 74 94 73 91 / 20 10 10 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 93 74 93 72 93 / 20 10 10 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 74 93 72 87 / 20 10 20 40 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
85/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1153 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. STARTING TO SEE A HINT OF IT ON LOW
CLOUD IMAGERY...AND FULLY EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE AND WSR-88D DATA INDICATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUD MOVEMENT AT A COUPLE DIFFERENT LEVELS.
ONE...AT THE LOWEST LEVEL...INDICATES OPEN CELL CUMULUS MOVING
MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
ALOFT...OTHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. OVER
THE CONCHO VALLEY...DISSIPATING CUMULUS IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE. THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX SIGNATURES WE WERE OBSERVING EARLIER
TODAY IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEAR TO HAVE DISSIPATED. THE LATEST
RUC DATA INDICATES CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY OUR
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS
ALOFT LOOKS WEAK. THUS...I HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SAME AREA
WE HAD IN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. AGAIN...THE RUC INDICATES OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE THE BEST PLACE FOR RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. BUT...THE LATEST HPC QPF GUIDANCE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE
ZERO QPF FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
I RECENTLY SENT A NEW SUITE OF PUBLIC AND FIRE ALPHANUMERIC
PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
AVIATION...
WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE AND PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES... EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO RETURN AFTER 7Z TONIGHT...OVER
ALL BUT KABI. LIGHT MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING WITH WET
VEGETATION. COULD SEE VISIBILITY DIPS INTO IFR...BUT SHOULD BRIEF
IF THEY OCCUR. CIGS RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
04
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CURRENTLY...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AT LEAST TWO MCV/S IN OR
NEAR OUR CWA. ONE CAN BE SEEN TURNING OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE CWA...AND ANOTHER ONE IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO CROCKETT AND
SONORA COUNTIES. THE SOUTHERN MCV APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN SCATTERED
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME...A CU FIELD TO THE WEST OF THE CWA CAN BE SEEN
EVAPORATING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE MAIN TROUGH CAN EXIT THE AREA...WE MAY
STILL SEE A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE GFS SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS SHOWING
ADDITIONAL QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT
CHANCES TO FINALLY START TO DIMINISH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AND IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST...WE MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN AREAS
WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TONIGHT TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW AS WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE...AND NO RAINFALL. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BACK IN THE NORTHWEST AS MOST OF THE POSSIBLE
CONVECTION TOMORROW AIS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR FARTHER WEST NEAR THE
TX/NM BORDER.
LONG TERM...
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY TO THE BIG COUNTRY...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH THIS WEEK.
RIDGE WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE THE RED RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE BIG
COUNTRY... CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR STORM OUTFLOW TO PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND...LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
GFS SURFACE BASED CAPES INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO A STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. HOWEVER UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF
THE REGION...SO DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...ENDING RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 94 73 94 71 / 10 10 10 20 30
SAN ANGELO 69 95 71 95 72 / 10 10 10 10 20
JUNCTION 71 93 71 93 71 / 20 5 5 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S.. WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW...A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES...SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...
EXTENDED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ARKANSAS. THESE SHORTWAVES HELPED
PRODUCE SOME OF THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES...
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AS WELL AS THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING WHERE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS FALLEN TO 0.94 INCHES. FARTHER WEST...THE AIR
GETS EVEN DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ABR SOUNDING AT 0.34 INCHES FOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE DRY AIR HAS EFFECTIVELY CLEARED MUCH OF THE
SKIES OUT. LIGHT WINDS...THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION LAST
EVENING HAS LED TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY NORTH OF PRAIRIE DU
CHIEN. 850MB TEMPS DID NOT DROP MUCH WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...
WITH READINGS GENERALLY 14-17C FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST INTO WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LOW WAS SITTING OVER
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. SOME CONVECTION FORMED AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA AND MN DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS YESTERDAY. THIS HAS SINCE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO GET
CAUGHT UP IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND TROUGHING IN EASTERN CANADA. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT INTO A
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SHORTWAVE GETS TO AT 12Z MONDAY...RANGING FROM NEAR MINNEAPOLIS FROM
THE 16.00Z GFS TO NEAR BRAINERD MN FROM THE 16.00Z
NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT.
TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE HELPS TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR IN
SEEN ON THE 00Z ABR SOUNDING. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE LIKE SEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...EASILY ALLOWING MIXING TO 850MB WHERE TEMPS OF 13-14C
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANY FOG THIS
MORNING TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE...LIKELY BY 9 AM OR EVEN EARLIER
GIVEN THE EARLY SUNRISE.
FOR TONIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST MODELS THAT A SURGE OF
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO MN. VALUES CLIMB UP TO
AROUND 1 INCH. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A DEFINITE SURGE OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO HELP SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRESENT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. 16.00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALL INDICATE
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS WHICH
GOES BACK TO THE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES MENTIONED EARLIER. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY SOLUTION OF A SLOWER APPROACH...WHICH RESULTS
IN THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF 30-40 OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DID EXTEND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MN
IN THE EVENT THE FASTER 16.00Z GFS COMES TRUE. MOST OF THESE CHANCES
ARE ALSO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE LURKING UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AT
12Z MONDAY IS WELL AGREED UPON TO REACH THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT 00Z TUESDAY...DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING BEFORE THAT. ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WAS DROPPING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH AND POSSIBLY WEAKEN AS THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FALLS APART. AS INSTABILITY BUILDS DURING THE DAY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS UNDER THE COLDER CORE OF
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THUS...IT APPEARS MONDAY WILL BE
AN OFF AND ON PRECIP DAY AT THIS TIME. 0-6KM SHEAR IS NOT THE
GREATEST FOR THINKING SEVERE WEATHER...GENERALLY 30-35 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TAKING ON A MULTI-CELLULAR APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...FREEZING LEVELS DO LOWER AT 21Z TO 9000 FT OVER THE NORTH
TO 10500-11000 FT AGL IN THE SOUTH...SO HAIL IS A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY FROM THE AFTERNOON STORMS. ANY CONVECTION FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHAT LOOKED TO BE A QUIET PERIOD FOR
MANY DAYS IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE 15.00Z ECMWF
SHOWED A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE RESULTED IN
PRECIPITATION. TODAY...THE 16.00Z NAM/UKMET/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE BUT ITS TRACK IS ALL OVER THE PLACE.
THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF DROP IT SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI WHILE THE
GFS AND 15.12Z ECMWF BRING IT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST
IA. THE CANADIAN LIES BETWEEN THE TWO. FOR REFERENCE...THE SHORTWAVE
RIGHT NOW SITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER.
DESPITE THE TRACK DIFFERENCES...LIGHT MODEL QPF IS MOSTLY CENTERED
WEST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE TUESDAY DAYTIME HOURS. THIS AREA
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING AND THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE. DESPITE SEEING
THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL...HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST
THINKING THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. A
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE IN UPPER MI SHOULD
PROVIDE A DRY FLOW OF AIR. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...A DRY AND
COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SHOULD BE
IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN SUBSIDENCE. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...STAYING IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
AT THE SURFACE. THE PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE
16.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES...SUGGESTING THE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SLOWLY EJECTS EAST-NORTHEAST. ALL THESE CHANGES OCCURRING TO THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP WARM ADVECTION AND A DECENT RETURN OF
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE...AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS BROAD BRUSHED WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCES AS THE FORECAST PATTERN LENDS ITSELF TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT MANY DAYS TO NAIL DOWN ANY
TIMING OR LOCATION OF THIS CONVECTION. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL HERE FOR
HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER TOO...BUT THOSE DETAILS ARE
TOO EARLY TO HASH OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOP AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES OF 4500 TO 5000 FT.
CIRRUS WILL MOVE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...FROM ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......AJ/RRS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM... AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MUCH MORE OF
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS WELL AS WINONA AND HOUSTON COUNTIES OF
MINNESOTA. CALLS TO COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENTS AS WELL AS AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A LOT MORE VISIBILITIES OF 1/4
MILE OR LESS...INCLUDING VIROQUA...LA CROSSE...BLACK RIVER FALLS AND
WINONA. MOST RIVER VALLEYS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ARE ASSUMED TO BE SOCKED IN WITH FOG GIVEN THE CONDITIONS IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT ALL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 9 AM WITH
THE EARLY SUNRISE HELPING TO MIX IT OUT QUICKLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S.. WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW...A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES...SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...
EXTENDED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ARKANSAS. THESE SHORTWAVES HELPED
PRODUCE SOME OF THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES...
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AS WELL AS THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING WHERE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS FALLEN TO 0.94 INCHES. FARTHER WEST...THE AIR
GETS EVEN DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ABR SOUNDING AT 0.34 INCHES FOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE DRY AIR HAS EFFECTIVELY CLEARED MUCH OF THE
SKIES OUT. LIGHT WINDS...THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION LAST
EVENING HAS LED TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY NORTH OF PRAIRIE DU
CHIEN. 850MB TEMPS DID NOT DROP MUCH WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...
WITH READINGS GENERALLY 14-17C FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST INTO WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LOW WAS SITTING OVER
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. SOME CONVECTION FORMED AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA AND MN DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS YESTERDAY. THIS HAS SINCE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO GET
CAUGHT UP IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND TROUGHING IN EASTERN CANADA. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT INTO A
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SHORTWAVE GETS TO AT 12Z MONDAY...RANGING FROM NEAR MINNEAPOLIS FROM
THE 16.00Z GFS TO NEAR BRAINERD MN FROM THE 16.00Z
NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT.
TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE HELPS TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR IN
SEEN ON THE 00Z ABR SOUNDING. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE LIKE SEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...EASILY ALLOWING MIXING TO 850MB WHERE TEMPS OF 13-14C
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANY FOG THIS
MORNING TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE...LIKELY BY 9 AM OR EVEN EARLIER
GIVEN THE EARLY SUNRISE.
FOR TONIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST MODELS THAT A SURGE OF
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO MN. VALUES CLIMB UP TO
AROUND 1 INCH. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A DEFINITE SURGE OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO HELP SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRESENT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. 16.00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALL INDICATE
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS WHICH
GOES BACK TO THE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES MENTIONED EARLIER. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY SOLUTION OF A SLOWER APPROACH...WHICH RESULTS
IN THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF 30-40 OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DID EXTEND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MN
IN THE EVENT THE FASTER 16.00Z GFS COMES TRUE. MOST OF THESE CHANCES
ARE ALSO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE LURKING UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AT
12Z MONDAY IS WELL AGREED UPON TO REACH THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT 00Z TUESDAY...DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING BEFORE THAT. ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WAS DROPPING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH AND POSSIBLY WEAKEN AS THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FALLS APART. AS INSTABILITY BUILDS DURING THE DAY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS UNDER THE COLDER CORE OF
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THUS...IT APPEARS MONDAY WILL BE
AN OFF AND ON PRECIP DAY AT THIS TIME. 0-6KM SHEAR IS NOT THE
GREATEST FOR THINKING SEVERE WEATHER...GENERALLY 30-35 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TAKING ON A MULTI-CELLULAR APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...FREEZING LEVELS DO LOWER AT 21Z TO 9000 FT OVER THE NORTH
TO 10500-11000 FT AGL IN THE SOUTH...SO HAIL IS A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY FROM THE AFTERNOON STORMS. ANY CONVECTION FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHAT LOOKED TO BE A QUIET PERIOD FOR
MANY DAYS IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE 15.00Z ECMWF
SHOWED A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE RESULTED IN
PRECIPITATION. TODAY...THE 16.00Z NAM/UKMET/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE BUT ITS TRACK IS ALL OVER THE PLACE.
THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF DROP IT SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI WHILE THE
GFS AND 15.12Z ECMWF BRING IT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST
IA. THE CANADIAN LIES BETWEEN THE TWO. FOR REFERENCE...THE SHORTWAVE
RIGHT NOW SITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER.
DESPITE THE TRACK DIFFERENCES...LIGHT MODEL QPF IS MOSTLY CENTERED
WEST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE TUESDAY DAYTIME HOURS. THIS AREA
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING AND THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE. DESPITE SEEING
THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL...HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST
THINKING THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. A
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE IN UPPER MI SHOULD
PROVIDE A DRY FLOW OF AIR. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...A DRY AND
COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SHOULD BE
IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN SUBSIDENCE. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...STAYING IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
AT THE SURFACE. THE PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE
16.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES...SUGGESTING THE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SLOWLY EJECTS EAST-NORTHEAST. ALL THESE CHANGES OCCURRING TO THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP WARM ADVECTION AND A DECENT RETURN OF
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE...AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS BROAD BRUSHED WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCES AS THE FORECAST PATTERN LENDS ITSELF TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT MANY DAYS TO NAIL DOWN ANY
TIMING OR LOCATION OF THIS CONVECTION. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL HERE FOR
HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER TOO...BUT THOSE DETAILS ARE
TOO EARLY TO HASH OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SUNRISE/DIURNAL WARMING AND A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
GRADIENT WINDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE VALLEY FOG IN THE KLSE
AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY/THIS EVENING...WITH GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE OF
MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. THE FRONT MAY BRING SOME WDLY SCT
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN ISOLATED/WDLY
SCT COVERAGE AND LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THESE...LEFT VCSH/VCTS OUT OF
THE 06-12Z TAF PERIOD FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ088-096.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......AJ/RRS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM... AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
348 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MUCH MORE OF
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS WELL AS WINONA AND HOUSTON COUNTIES OF
MINNESOTA. CALLS TO COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENTS AS WELL AS AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A LOT MORE VISIBILITIES OF 1/4
MILE OR LESS...INCLUDING VIROQUA...LA CROSSE...BLACK RIVER FALLS AND
WINONA. MOST RIVER VALLEYS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ARE ASSUMED TO BE SOCKED IN WITH FOG GIVEN THE CONDITIONS IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT ALL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 9 AM WITH
THE EARLY SUNRISE HELPING TO MIX IT OUT QUICKLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S.. WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW...A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES...SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...
EXTENDED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ARKANSAS. THESE SHORTWAVES HELPED
PRODUCE SOME OF THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES...
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AS WELL AS THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING WHERE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS FALLEN TO 0.94 INCHES. FARTHER WEST...THE AIR
GETS EVEN DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ABR SOUNDING AT 0.34 INCHES FOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE DRY AIR HAS EFFECTIVELY CLEARED MUCH OF THE
SKIES OUT. LIGHT WINDS...THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION LAST
EVENING HAS LED TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY NORTH OF PRAIRIE DU
CHIEN. 850MB TEMPS DID NOT DROP MUCH WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...
WITH READINGS GENERALLY 14-17C FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST INTO WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LOW WAS SITTING OVER
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. SOME CONVECTION FORMED AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA AND MN DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS YESTERDAY. THIS HAS SINCE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO GET
CAUGHT UP IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND TROUGHING IN EASTERN CANADA. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT INTO A
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SHORTWAVE GETS TO AT 12Z MONDAY...RANGING FROM NEAR MINNEAPOLIS FROM
THE 16.00Z GFS TO NEAR BRAINERD MN FROM THE 16.00Z
NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT.
TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE HELPS TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR IN
SEEN ON THE 00Z ABR SOUNDING. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE LIKE SEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...EASILY ALLOWING MIXING TO 850MB WHERE TEMPS OF 13-14C
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANY FOG THIS
MORNING TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE...LIKELY BY 9 AM OR EVEN EARLIER
GIVEN THE EARLY SUNRISE.
FOR TONIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST MODELS THAT A SURGE OF
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO MN. VALUES CLIMB UP TO
AROUND 1 INCH. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A DEFINITE SURGE OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO HELP SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRESENT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. 16.00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALL INDICATE
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS WHICH
GOES BACK TO THE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES MENTIONED EARLIER. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY SOLUTION OF A SLOWER APPROACH...WHICH RESULTS
IN THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF 30-40 OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DID EXTEND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MN
IN THE EVENT THE FASTER 16.00Z GFS COMES TRUE. MOST OF THESE CHANCES
ARE ALSO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE LURKING UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AT
12Z MONDAY IS WELL AGREED UPON TO REACH THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT 00Z TUESDAY...DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING BEFORE THAT. ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WAS DROPPING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH AND POSSIBLY WEAKEN AS THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FALLS APART. AS INSTABILITY BUILDS DURING THE DAY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS UNDER THE COLDER CORE OF
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THUS...IT APPEARS MONDAY WILL BE
AN OFF AND ON PRECIP DAY AT THIS TIME. 0-6KM SHEAR IS NOT THE
GREATEST FOR THINKING SEVERE WEATHER...GENERALLY 30-35 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TAKING ON A MULTI-CELLULAR APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...FREEZING LEVELS DO LOWER AT 21Z TO 9000 FT OVER THE NORTH
TO 10500-11000 FT AGL IN THE SOUTH...SO HAIL IS A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY FROM THE AFTERNOON STORMS. ANY CONVECTION FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHAT LOOKED TO BE A QUIET PERIOD FOR
MANY DAYS IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE 15.00Z ECMWF
SHOWED A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE RESULTED IN
PRECIPITATION. TODAY...THE 16.00Z NAM/UKMET/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE BUT ITS TRACK IS ALL OVER THE PLACE.
THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF DROP IT SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI WHILE THE
GFS AND 15.12Z ECMWF BRING IT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST
IA. THE CANADIAN LIES BETWEEN THE TWO. FOR REFERENCE...THE SHORTWAVE
RIGHT NOW SITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER.
DESPITE THE TRACK DIFFERENCES...LIGHT MODEL QPF IS MOSTLY CENTERED
WEST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE TUESDAY DAYTIME HOURS. THIS AREA
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING AND THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE. DESPITE SEEING
THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL...HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST
THINKING THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. A
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE IN UPPER MI SHOULD
PROVIDE A DRY FLOW OF AIR. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...A DRY AND
COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SHOULD BE
IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN SUBSIDENCE. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...STAYING IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
AT THE SURFACE. THE PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE
16.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES...SUGGESTING THE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SLOWLY EJECTS EAST-NORTHEAST. ALL THESE CHANGES OCCURRING TO THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP WARM ADVECTION AND A DECENT RETURN OF
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE...AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS BROAD BRUSHED WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCES AS THE FORECAST PATTERN LENDS ITSELF TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT MANY DAYS TO NAIL DOWN ANY
TIMING OR LOCATION OF THIS CONVECTION. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL HERE FOR
HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER TOO...BUT THOSE DETAILS ARE
TOO EARLY TO HASH OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FG/BR BECOMING A PROBLEM ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIND HAVE TRENDED LIGHTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THESE
LIGHT/VARIABLE/CALM WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FROM RAINS SAT/SAT EVENING AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RESULTED IN MORE BR/FG FORMATION AT VALLEY SITES LIKE KLSE. EVEN
WITH A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...SOME BR FORMING AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN /KRST/KAUM/KTOB/.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE MS/WI RIVER
VALLEYS /KLSE/ THRU 13Z...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KRST THRU THE SAME
TIME FRAME. GIVEN IT/S MID JUNE NEAR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE AND THE SUN
RISES AROUND 530 AM...THE FOG/BR SHOULD BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...AND BE GONE BY 13Z/1330Z. GOOD VFR THEN EXPECTED THRU
SUN/SUN EVENING.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL SINK SOUTH WITH
SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG IT. A FEW SHRA/TS COULD SPARK
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND COULD IMPACT KRST/KLSE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ088-096.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ/RRS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
308 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S.. WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW...A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES...SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...
EXTENDED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ARKANSAS. THESE SHORTWAVES HELPED
PRODUCE SOME OF THE CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES...
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AS WELL AS THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING WHERE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS FALLEN TO 0.94 INCHES. FARTHER WEST...THE AIR
GETS EVEN DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ABR SOUNDING AT 0.34 INCHES FOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE DRY AIR HAS EFFECTIVELY CLEARED MUCH OF THE
SKIES OUT. LIGHT WINDS...THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION LAST
EVENING HAS LED TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY NORTH OF PRAIRIE DU
CHIEN. 850MB TEMPS DID NOT DROP MUCH WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...
WITH READINGS GENERALLY 14-17C FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST INTO WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LOW WAS SITTING OVER
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. SOME CONVECTION FORMED AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA AND MN DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS YESTERDAY. THIS HAS SINCE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO GET
CAUGHT UP IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND TROUGHING IN EASTERN CANADA. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT INTO A
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SHORTWAVE GETS TO AT 12Z MONDAY...RANGING FROM NEAR MINNEAPOLIS FROM
THE 16.00Z GFS TO NEAR BRAINERD MN FROM THE 16.00Z
NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT.
TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE HELPS TO BRING THAT DRIER AIR IN
SEEN ON THE 00Z ABR SOUNDING. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE LIKE SEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...EASILY ALLOWING MIXING TO 850MB WHERE TEMPS OF 13-14C
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANY FOG THIS
MORNING TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE...LIKELY BY 9 AM OR EVEN EARLIER
GIVEN THE EARLY SUNRISE.
FOR TONIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST MODELS THAT A SURGE OF
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO MN. VALUES CLIMB UP TO
AROUND 1 INCH. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A DEFINITE SURGE OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO HELP SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRESENT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. 16.00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALL INDICATE
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS WHICH
GOES BACK TO THE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES MENTIONED EARLIER. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY SOLUTION OF A SLOWER APPROACH...WHICH RESULTS
IN THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF 30-40 OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DID EXTEND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MN
IN THE EVENT THE FASTER 16.00Z GFS COMES TRUE. MOST OF THESE CHANCES
ARE ALSO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE LURKING UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AT
12Z MONDAY IS WELL AGREED UPON TO REACH THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT 00Z TUESDAY...DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING BEFORE THAT. ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
WAS DROPPING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH AND POSSIBLY WEAKEN AS THE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FALLS APART. AS INSTABILITY BUILDS DURING THE DAY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS UNDER THE COLDER CORE OF
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THUS...IT APPEARS MONDAY WILL BE
AN OFF AND ON PRECIP DAY AT THIS TIME. 0-6KM SHEAR IS NOT THE
GREATEST FOR THINKING SEVERE WEATHER...GENERALLY 30-35 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TAKING ON A MULTI-CELLULAR APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...FREEZING LEVELS DO LOWER AT 21Z TO 9000 FT OVER THE NORTH
TO 10500-11000 FT AGL IN THE SOUTH...SO HAIL IS A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY FROM THE AFTERNOON STORMS. ANY CONVECTION FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHAT LOOKED TO BE A QUIET PERIOD FOR
MANY DAYS IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE 15.00Z ECMWF
SHOWED A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE RESULTED IN
PRECIPITATION. TODAY...THE 16.00Z NAM/UKMET/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE BUT ITS TRACK IS ALL OVER THE PLACE.
THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF DROP IT SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI WHILE THE
GFS AND 15.12Z ECMWF BRING IT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST
IA. THE CANADIAN LIES BETWEEN THE TWO. FOR REFERENCE...THE SHORTWAVE
RIGHT NOW SITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER.
DESPITE THE TRACK DIFFERENCES...LIGHT MODEL QPF IS MOSTLY CENTERED
WEST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE TUESDAY DAYTIME HOURS. THIS AREA
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING AND THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE. DESPITE SEEING
THE LIGHT QPF SIGNAL...HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST
THINKING THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. A
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE IN UPPER MI SHOULD
PROVIDE A DRY FLOW OF AIR. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...A DRY AND
COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SHOULD BE
IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN SUBSIDENCE. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...STAYING IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
AT THE SURFACE. THE PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE
16.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES...SUGGESTING THE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SLOWLY EJECTS EAST-NORTHEAST. ALL THESE CHANGES OCCURRING TO THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP WARM ADVECTION AND A DECENT RETURN OF
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE...AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS BROAD BRUSHED WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCES AS THE FORECAST PATTERN LENDS ITSELF TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT MANY DAYS TO NAIL DOWN ANY
TIMING OR LOCATION OF THIS CONVECTION. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL HERE FOR
HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER TOO...BUT THOSE DETAILS ARE
TOO EARLY TO HASH OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FG/BR BECOMING A PROBLEM ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIND HAVE TRENDED LIGHTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THESE
LIGHT/VARIABLE/CALM WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FROM RAINS SAT/SAT EVENING AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RESULTED IN MORE BR/FG FORMATION AT VALLEY SITES LIKE KLSE. EVEN
WITH A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS...SOME BR FORMING AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN /KRST/KAUM/KTOB/.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE MS/WI RIVER
VALLEYS /KLSE/ THRU 13Z...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KRST THRU THE SAME
TIME FRAME. GIVEN IT/S MID JUNE NEAR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE AND THE SUN
RISES AROUND 530 AM...THE FOG/BR SHOULD BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...AND BE GONE BY 13Z/1330Z. GOOD VFR THEN EXPECTED THRU
SUN/SUN EVENING.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL SINK SOUTH WITH
SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG IT. A FEW SHRA/TS COULD SPARK
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND COULD IMPACT KRST/KLSE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
508 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A FEW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AS WELL ALONG WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WARM FRONT THAT IS MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THIS AREA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE FOR THE
MOST PART THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AS A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. FIRST THOUGH...A DEVELOPING
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY AS A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COOL FRONT. WITH CONTINUED ENERGETIC AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERHEAD IN ADDITION TO A NUMBER OF SFC FORCING MECHANISMS IN
PLACE...WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKS TO BE A BROADER COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
FOR TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION ALONG THE
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES
THAT ARE THE MOUNTAINS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF
CAPE WITH MINIMAL CAP ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE COMBINED
WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH LCLS IN PLACE DUE TO WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...THE MAIN THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND LOWER LCLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BRING A LOW POSSIBILITY
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS OUT WEST ESPECIALLY
FOR DOWNBURST WINDS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW A
PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V PROFILE BY LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE OVERALL
ACTIVITY LAST LONGER INTO THE NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THE COOL FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
LATE EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL
AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE FEATURE DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERALL BEHIND THE COOL FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WILL PROVIDE STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. SO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REDUCE THE CAP IN THE AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING
SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS...WITH TROUGHS ANCHORED OVER
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP AND OVER THE RIDGE
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE
DRY LINE OR TROUGH WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE EASTERN
WYOMING AND COLORADO PLAINS DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
TSTORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENT
FLOW OVER THE CWFA. A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY. A
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL WYOMING TO
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WARMEST PERIOD WILL BE THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM 14 TO 18C.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013
EXPECTING FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
IS SHOWING SOME IFR CEILINGS AT KSNY AND KCYS AROUND THE 09-10Z
TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE HIGH FALSE ALARM RATE WITH THE HRRR THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS THOUGH...DECIDED TO GO AGAINST THIS GUIDANCE AND ONLY
HAVE SCT008 IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS AT KCYS...KBFF AND KSNY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A NUMBER OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME. ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE FOR WETTING
RAINS OUT OF MOST STORMS...ALTHOUGH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY WHICH COULD ATTRIBUTE TO LITTLE RAINFALL IN THIS AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OUT WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS IN ADDITION TO BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HOT DOES IT
GET. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AIR MASS HAS DRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS AND FORECAST FAILED FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDED UP BEING STRONGER OVER THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AT JET LEVEL APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR
APART AT MID LEVELS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST WITH
THE OLDER ECMWF DOING THE WORST. THE HRRR WAS CATCHING THE INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS/CLUSTER WELL AND WILL USE INITIALLY.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
MOVING IN...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW USED THE
HRRR FOR THE POPS AND WINDS THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS CATCHING THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS WELL.
MAIN JET LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME AM THINKING THEY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. SO WENT NEAR
TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE.
QUESTIONS THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST WITH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS MAKING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED CINH
IS THE LOWEST AND BREAKABLE IN THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
WILL TRANSITION THE CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE EAST WHILE KEEPING SOME
KIND OF CHANCE IN THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND
UPPER LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME JET LIFT REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT THEN THE JET GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY AND LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LINGERING LIFT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING.
THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THE REDEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THAT. SO WILL START WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE BORDER
AND HAVE A LOW CHANCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION. THEN THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE THEY INCREASE THE WINDS. IT DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ALSO DEWPOINTS LOOK LIKE THEY BECOME LOW IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. MODELS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AM
SKEPTICAL OF TOO BIG OF AN INCREASE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THEN STALLING OR WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH. INITIALLY FOR THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WITH VERY TOASTY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALSO
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. BY THE END OF THE
DAY THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DURING THE NIGHT THIS LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO DESPITE SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...WILL KEEP THIS WHOLE PERIOD DRY DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DEEP DRY LAYER.
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WIND
SHIFT. THE NORTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
BOUNDARY BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S THERE. GIVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IT WILL GET NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN
MORE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION....(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.
AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
214 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTER OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.
AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1103 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.
AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1013 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
112 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
Did a quick update to remove thunder from the forecast as convection
continues to slowly wind down. Thunder is now contained mainly to
far NE KY early this morning. Convectively induced MCV is churning
across southwestern TN this morning. Latest short range LMK WRF,
RAP and HRRR runs suggest that this will pivot eastward through the
night and mainly affect middle TN. Showers are expected to continue
through much of the overnight hours with a diminishing trend
developing across southwest IN and portions of north-central
Kentucky later this morning. More heavier rainfall will be possible
overnight along the KY/TN border as the MCV passes by. A rumble or
two of thunder will be possible with this activity...but feel the
bulk of that will be to our south. With the rain ending and
temperatures cooling, did add in some patchy fog to the forecast as
we`re likely to see that develop in the typical low-lying and fog
prone areas.
Update issued at 848 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013
Activity continues to wane this evening, as surface temperatures
have cooled resulting in diminishing surface instability. However,
a wave of isentropic ascent in advance of the approaching shortwave
trough continues to slide northeast across Kentucky, which should
keep showers and a few thunderstorms going for the next several
hours across portions of Kentucky and southern Indiana.
Southern Kentucky is enjoying a break for now, but additional
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop
northeast of a surface low progged to slide through TN. It remains
unclear just how widespread this activity will be, but a low-level
jet of 25-35 knots should help keep coverage up enough to warrant
50-60 pops across southern KY. Forecast soundings do show some
slight warming aloft, and with the loss of any surface-based
instability, think thunder overnight will remain rather isolated,
thus have kept only isolated thunder in the grids.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013
Broadly cyclonic upper flow over the eastern CONUS will carry a
couple disturbances over the Ohio Valley through Tuesday night.
Moist and unstable low levels will fuel convection, but forecast
confidence is low due to uncertainty in timing of upper features,
and how convection will change the atmosphere for the next
disturbance.
Boundary extending from near Brandenburg to between Danville and
Somerset is serving as a focus for convection. Slow-moving storms
will mostly be heavy rain producers, but FTK has gotten 42 mph gusts
and pea-sized hail out of an isolated cell in the last 30 min. Will
highlight heavy rain and pulse wind potential from storms this
afternoon, but organized SVR is not likely.
Will ramp POPs up south of the boundary to account for activity that
may spread in from western KY/TN as we head into the evening. The
main shortwave will come through after midnight, so will expand POPs
northward for that. Likely POP south of the Parkways, but low-end
chance over southern Indiana as most of the forcing aloft looks to
remain over the Tennessee Valley.
Precip chances continue into Tuesday, especially in east central
Kentucky, in closer proximity to the boundary and surface reflection
of the upper disturbance. Slightly drier NE flow will serve as a
limiting factor, so will taper to lower POPs and warmer afternoon
temps west of I-65.
Upper shortwave trof currently diving out of the Upper Midwest will
finally kick this moisture out by midnight Tuesday night. This is a
slower progression than previously advertised, but there is good
agreement among the synoptic scale models. Therefore have introduced
a chance POP for Tuesday evening, albeit a low-QPF scenario. After
midnight the high over the Great Lakes should be able to build south
in earnest, resulting in a drying trend with below-normal temps and
falling dewpoints.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013
This period mostly should be quiet. High pressure at the surface
will start off centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Precipitable
waters will fall to under an inch. By week`s end ridging aloft
should allow temperatures to warm back into the 90s, at least at
SDF, but drier surface dewpoints should make this heat wave a little
more bearable than the one last week. The ridge aloft will be
centered over the mid Mississippi river valley Sunday and Monday,
which despite increasing precipitable waters, should keep rain
chances low. Best chance, still slight, should be across our east.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 112 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
Rather low-confidence continues for the overnight period especially
with regards to potential for low clouds and fog. Widespread shower
activity across western KY will continue to move eastward while
diminishing in coverage. Some light rain will be possible at the
terminals through at least 18/10Z. Cigs and Vsbys look to start off
as VFR, but the guidance suggests some IFR/MVFR cigs developing late
tonight as low clouds build downward. At this time...feel that MVFR
cigs are attainable and will place those into the upcoming
forecast...mainly after 18/08Z through 18/12-14Z. Patchy fog will
also be possible...mainly at KBWG and KLEX. Conditions should
improve a bit after 18/13Z as drier air works in from the NW.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........MJ
Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
119 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN
QUEBEC RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MANITOBA WAS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NRN LAKES. WEAK 850-700 MB FGEN SUPPORTED A BAND OF DIMINISHING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS OVER NRN UPPER MI HAD DISSIPATED LEAVING
MAINLY JUST SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO NRN WI SUPPORTED SCT TSRA OVER N CNTRL WI IN AREA WHERE
SFC HEATING HAD PUSHED MLCAPES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. MLCAPE
VALUES AND TSRA MOTION SUGGESTS THE TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CLEARING ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 0.30 INCH OVER THE WEST(35
PCT OR NORMAL) FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. UPSTREAM OBS FROM
LAST NIGHT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUGGEST THAT TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE
33F TO 36F RANGE OVER FAVORED COLDER LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF. SO...SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE LIGHT
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST AND DELAYED
CLEARING/MIXING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. SO...WAS NOT AS CONFIDENT IN MORE WIDESPREAD FROST
THAT WOULD REQUIRE AN ADVISORY.
TUE...SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 30S RESULTING IN RH
VALUES TO NEAR 25 PCT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
REGION...LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...AS THE AREA IS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A DRY SURFACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND A PLEASANT JUNE
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AND PUSH 850MB TEMPS UP TO 10C. WITH DEEP MIXING TO
800-750MB...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE DEEP MIXING AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...HAVE
FOLLOWED MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS /UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S/...LOWEST OVER THE EAST. THIS PRODUCES MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 30 PERCENT OVER THE EAST. WIND SHOULDN/T BE TOO GUSTY THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 15-20MPH IN THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD END UP PRODUCING MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS.
ATTENTION FOR THE LONG TERM THEN TURNS TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH. WITH IT BEING NEAR THE MN
ARROWHEAD AROUND PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE AND NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
IN ONTARIO. WITH THE FORECASTED STORM MOTION...THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THEY WILL DIMINISH AS DIURNAL
HEATING IS LOST AND IT RUNS INTO THE EXISTING DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH.
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE IS CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE HIGHEST
POPS AND THEN DIMINISH THE REST AS THEY DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL
HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK LAKE BREEZES TO AID CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE BEST INTERACTION WITH THE CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY /ML CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED POPS UP TO HIGH
CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY VALUES WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE /25-30KTS/ AND
WITH CAPE FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY...WOULD THINK HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 20KTS
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AND SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA. THIS MAKES PINNING DOWN POPS A
LITTLE DIFFICULT AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM AND MOVING THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS LIKE THE
WAVES WILL COME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THOSE PERIODS FOR THE HIGHEST POPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THAT PERIOD...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
EACH OF THE WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
WARM FRONT WILL LINE UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY
LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SHORTWAVES. WITH THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS GETTING
CLOSER INTO THE WEEKEND...WOULD THINK THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ON
THE RISE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO PEAK AND THE OVERALL PATTERN
LOOKS CONDUCIVE FOR AN MCS FORMING IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND ROLLING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOGS
FROM THE 12Z GFS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS
SATURDAY...SO IT WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THE AREA WILL COME UNDER MORE ZONAL TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REALLY DIMINISHES FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND
ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IN GENERAL...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BRING THE CONVECTION TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL SAG SOUTH AND FOCUS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S. ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAY NEED TO INCREASE IT IN
COVERAGE IN THE FUTURE AND ALSO EXPAND IT INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW OVER
THE DAKOTAS/MN. A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ARE STILL ON-GOING WITH THIS
FEATURE. MULTIPLE MODELS DEVELOP SHWRS/TSTMS N OF I-80 BEFORE DAWN
...PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK. SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO OVERNIGHT POPS/WX.
MEANWHILE...A SMALL MCS CONTINUES OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WHILE
THERE HAS BEEN SOME TEMPO CLEARING OVER S-CNTRL NEB...BLOW-OFF
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THE REST OF THE NGT.
TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS ARE ON TRACK. SO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO CENTER
AROUND THE VERY TRICKY...AND CONSTANTLY-EVOLVING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...OR LACK THEREOF IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ALTHOUGH
AT LEAST A LOW-END RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AS THE SUNDAY EVENING EVENT.
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE COLD FRONT
NOTED WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK/NORTHWEST TX. IT HAS BEEN
COMPLETELY RAIN/THUNDER-FREE THE ENTIRE DAY SO FAR CWA-WIDE. WITH
THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...AND A MODEST 1018 MILLIBAR
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE GENERALLY SOME VARIATION OF NORTHERLY/EASTERLY AT NO MORE THAN
10 MPH. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
DEPICTS THE CONTINUATION OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...FLOWING OVER THE TOP OF A FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THERE ARE GENERALLY THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIPPLES OF NOTE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/MO/OK BORDER
AREA...ONE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND...AND THE OTHER A FAIRLY
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...WHICH
HAS HELPED TRIGGER SOME THUS-FAR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL
50-100 MILES WEST- NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NOTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH A FEW THICKER
MID-CLOUD AREAS DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES OUT AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS ARE GENERALLY ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S MOST ALL AREAS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PINNING DOWN THE HOURLY DETAILS
OF POPS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. REGARDING THE
BIG PICTURE ALOFT BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...THE VERY SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WY/CO/NORTHWEST NEB AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST...WHILE
THE SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE NOW OVER ND WILL REACH THE
NORTH CENTRAL IA BY SUNRISE. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE CONSIDERED A
VARIETY OF DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
TONIGHT...WHICH INVARIABLY PAINT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
PICTURES...BUT LEANING MAINLY TOWARD THE HRRR/4 KM-WRF SOLUTIONS
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO
THE WEST. THROUGH 7PM...HAVE KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA POP-
FREE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES CREEPING INTO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND/OR DRIFTS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN 00Z-04Z/7PM-11PM...SPREAD AT LEAST
SLIGHT 20 PERCENT POPS INTO EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...WHILE RAISING INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT HIGH-CHANCE RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. BY 00Z...LATEST RAP INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG OF 0-1KM CAPE MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DROP
OFF SLOWLY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN HIGHEST IN KS ZONES. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CURRENT POPS MAY NOT BE NEARLY HIGH ENOUGH IF IN FACT A
SEMI-ORGANIZED BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVERHEAD OR MOVES
IN...BUT GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT NO MORE
THAN 40-50 PERCENT FOR NOW. GENERALLY HAVE FOLLOWED SPC SREF
SEVERE THUNDER PROBABILITIES BY CONTINUING A MENTION OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION DRIFTING IN. WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD SEEM TO BE A
60-70 MPH WIND EVENT IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A COLD POOL...BUT
IN THEORY THIS SEEMS FAIRLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
LOSE INTENSITY AS IT HEADS EAST OUT OF WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS...SO WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT A MARGINALLY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS
TIME. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE NAM THAT A MODEST RIBBON OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER COULD SPARK A NEW ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
MAINLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST-DRIFTING DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE...AND THUS
HAVE PUT POPS BACK INTO THESE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
CASE THIS OCCURS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS...WITH NEARLY
ALL AREAS SETTLING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60. ALSO...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 1-2 MILES OR LESS THAT WOULD
REQUIRE FORMAL INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST.
TURNING TO THE TUESDAY DAYTIME PERIOD...UNCERTAINLY JUST KEEPS
GROWING...WITH SOME MODELS CONTINUING TO PAINT DAYTIME MORNING
CONVECTION POSSIBLY AS A CONTINUATION OF THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...AND ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING BY TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...BASED ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING
UNCERTAINTY/CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LESS QPF IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND LEAVE THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS RAIN/THUNDERSTORM-FREE FOR
NOW...WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
INSERT SOME POST-SUNRISE POPS WITH LIMITED NOTICE. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE PREVIOUS 12Z NAM WAS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE NEW 18Z RUN NOW HAS PLENTY OF DAYTIME
CONVECTION...WHICH COULD EASILY BE OVERDONE PER THE 12Z 4KM WRF-
NMM...WHICH FITS THE MORE COMMON CONCEPTUAL PICTURE OF LACK
OF FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THE IA SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES
PASSING SOUTHEAST. THIS CONCEPTUAL PICTURE OF THIS PATTERN WOULD
ALSO SUGGEST THE BEST AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WOULD BE IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND THUS AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ONLY
OFFICIAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CWA TOMORROW ARE FROM 3-7PM
IN WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD THEY OCCUR. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...BE PREPARED FOR
SOME POTENTIALLY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THESE
STORM CHANCES...AS LOOKING EVEN BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS
PROVING DICEY...AND MORNING CONVECTION COULD BE A WILD CARD.
TEMP-WISE TOMORROW...ASSUMING DAYTIME CONVECTION DOES NOT BLOSSOM
AND CLOUD THINGS UP...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY AND
NUDGED UP HIGHS SLIGHTLY...GETTING MOST PLACES BETWEEN 81-86
DEGREES. BREEZES WILL START OUT LIGHT BUT PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVE
AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT SHOWS THE
REGION REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK/BROAD RIDGING IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FAR NERN CONUS
AND THE PAC NW COAST. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY ONGOING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR
EAST/HOW MUCH OF THE CWA ENDS UP BEING AFFECTED. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO TAKE ITS TIME SLIDING EAST...WITH LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEEING THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SEEING THUNDERSTORM...BUT ITS POSSIBLE NOT A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
WILL MAKE IT...SO THERE ISNT A BIG RAMP UP IN POPS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AS WE LOOK TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOTHING IS CERTAINLY CLEAR
CUT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED PAC
NW UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING INLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS ONLY MOVED INTO THE WA/ID/MT
BORDER AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION LIES WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF
PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. ITS IMPACT ON
THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WHICH AT THIS
POINT LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT/BROAD...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SHIFT
THOSE BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ALREADY ON
WEDNESDAY...SOME MODELS SHOW THE WEST WITH THE BETTER CHANCES/OTHERS
THE EAST...AND DECIDED AT THIS POINT TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER
SIDE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE POPS
/WHICH REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY/...WITH THERE STILL BEING SOME
SUPPORT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST SLIDING
THROUGH...BUT WITH OTHERS STARTING TO TREND AWAY FROM THAT WASNT
GOING TO INCREASE THOSE CHANCES.
BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS STARTING TO DEPICT SOME SLIGHT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS THAT PAC NW LOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN QUESTION IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES...AND
WHAT/IF ANYTHING IS LINGERING IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL
ANYTHING FIRE IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACCOMPANYING THIS
BUMP UP IN THE RIDGE IS WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS...AND CAPPING STARTS TO BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. SOME
MODELS HAVE STARTED TRENDING TOWARD THAT CAP BUILDING IN AND KEEPING
THE DAY DRY...BUT A FEW ARE HANGING ON TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY...SO WHILE POPS WERE LOWERED...THEY WERE NOT
COMPLETELY REMOVED AT THIS POINT.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS DRY. THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS
BECOMES MORE ORIENTATED IN A SW/NE DIRECTION JUST EAST OF THE
CWA...THE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING AND LOCATION OF SFC
BOUNDARIES LOOKS TO KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES JUST OFF TO THE CWA.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE
CWA. THE LOW OVER THE PAC NW FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE E/NE
INTO CENTRAL CANADA...BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING THE RIDGE ONCE IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AGAIN ALLOWING FOR THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE MAIN FLOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECTING TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...MAINLY INTO THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME WITH THAT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE...BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN A TOUCH
INTO SUN/MON. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RISING TO THE 90S FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT /ADDITION UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED/...WITH MID 80S
TO MID 90S FOR SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
REST OF TNGT: VFR WITH MOSTLY BKN CIRRUS. HOWEVER...WE DO NEED TO
WATCH POTENTIAL FOR A TEMPO MVFR OR IFR VSBY IN DEVELOPING SHWRS/
TSTMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM THE NE.
TUE: VFR BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO MVFR OR IFR VSBY IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS UNTIL 15Z. SE WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.
TUE THRU 06Z: VFR. SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CIG CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
VSBY CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
WIND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
WX CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. LATER ON
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IT WILL BE A DIFFICULT NEAR TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL GET. HAVE USED A BLEND OF RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR TO BRING LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RIVER WITH DECREASING CHANCES NORTH OF THE RIVER. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS BEING CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/WV ALONG
WITH SOME 850 MB-700 MB DEFORMATION. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS ONE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MORNING WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH EXITING FIRST AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE COLD FRONT/SHORT WAVE TANDEM EXIT
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF TWO H5 S/W THAT WILL AFFECT THE TAFS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD IS SWINGING ACROSS KY ATTM. THIS ENERGY IS HELPING TO
DRIVE THE CONVECTION ACROSS KY AND SRN OHIO. BEST LIFT FROM THIS
S/W WILL WORK E QUICKLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE
CONVECTION IS WANING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE TAF WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS BRING SECOND S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION
BETWEEN AROUND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND BEHIND A STALLED FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS
STARTING AT 18Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN MIGHT BE AROUND 00Z AS
THE BEST LIFT FROM THE S/W MOVES. THAT IS A LITTLE FAR OUT TO ADD
A TEMPO RIGHT NOW. FOR THE 30 HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE
MOVING PAST BY 06Z...SO BROUGHT THE PCPN TO AN END AT 06Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF KSPS WITHIN THE PAST
HALF HOUR. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS MAY DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND WILL
LOOK AT THE STATUS OF THIS WHEN IT THE TAFS ARE ISSUED. STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND WILL
NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE 06Z TAFS DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
PROBABILITY... BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
COLD FRONT DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTENT
STRATUS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE
TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE NE FA AROUND A MCV...BUT ANY OTHER MOIST
CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR FA ACROSS N TX. ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL INITIALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS MAY TRY
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR TX ZONES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR FA SO
HAVE ISOLATED HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN BORDERS. A SFC HIGH
UNDER MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDWEST AND NE OK
TOMORROW KEEPING HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVG. POPS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST LATE TOMORROW THROUGH MID DAY WED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ROUNDS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. DO NOT
EXPECT A LOT OF PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THINK HIGH CHC POPS
APPEAR REASONBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO PLACE.
SIGNFICANT POPS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER WED...BUT DID MENTION
SOME SLIGHT TO LOW END CHCS FOR THURS AM AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL ALSO BE
TRUE ACROSS THE NW BY FRI AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ALLOWING A FEW
MORE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
REGION...AND PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OK BY SAT AM.
OTHER THAN THESE LOW END POPS...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE WARMER
TEMPS THURS-SAT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM WEST TX THROUGH AT LEAST SW OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 85 69 84 / 10 10 50 50
HOBART OK 68 88 68 90 / 10 20 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 90 70 93 / 20 20 30 30
GAGE OK 64 85 65 87 / 20 20 40 40
PONCA CITY OK 67 86 68 84 / 10 20 40 40
DURANT OK 70 88 70 89 / 10 20 40 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT JUNE PATTERN OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION AND BE
REPLACED BY A SUMMERTIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE WITH THE
OFFICIAL START OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER...AND LAST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BELT OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW ON THE SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVG EWD FROM QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES WILL SHIFT EWD ACRS NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
LWR LKS IS TEAMING WITH A WELL-DEFINED 300MB JET ENTRANCE REGION
TO MAINTAIN A CLUSTER SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW PA...WITH A FEW LONE
CELLS CROSSING LK ERIE. THE LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THIS AREA OF PCPN AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACRS MCKEAN CO THRU 12Z. OUTSIDE
OF THE NW MTNS...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU DAYBREAK.
IR SATL LOOP SHOWS A SHIELD OF LYRD MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD
ACRS CNTRL PA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCD WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THRU THE TN VLY AND WEAK SFC LOW ADVANCING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
MID-ATLC COAST. ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
ACRS MN..AND WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE LWR-MID OH VLY BY THIS
AFTN. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY /FROM THE SW/ AND
AFOREMENTIONED SFC COLD FRONT /FROM THE NW/ SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING/LIFT TO FUEL SCT TO NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTN. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BEST
LOCATION/AERIAL CVRG WILL BE. THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SPC WRF/SSEO
HIGHLIGHT THE AREA SOUTH OF I-80...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE 17-18Z TIMEFRAME.
THE SVR THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER I CANT RULE OUT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN 35-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WITH THE MAIN SURGE OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVER SOUTHEAST PA. THE
LATER ARRIVING MESO GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE FORMING A CONSENSUS THAT
THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE THE MOST ACTIVITY COINCIDENT
WITH PEAK HEATING. AS SUCH...EXPECT TSTM CVRG TO WANE/TAPER OFF
WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL/SWD MVMT OF COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACRS THE CWA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCH
DRIER/BELOW NORMAL PWAT AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME LOW POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFT 06Z...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT WITH
COOLER NLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
70S. CLR/CALM CONDS WED NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACRS THE NRN TIER...AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE
SOUTH. SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NRN MTNS COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVG ACRS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE EWD WITH RISING HGTS
EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ERN CONUS. CONSENSUS OF MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO BUILD THE RIDGE TO 588+DM THRU THE
WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST TASTE OF SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY ARRIVING
ON SCHEDULE.
LLVL S-SWLY RETURN FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTING OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LLVL MSTR THRU THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR AN AFTN POP-UP/AIRMASS TYPE SHOWER
OR TSTM ON FRI.
ABOVE NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS WITH
THE GFS-BASED MOS GUID MORE BULLISH THAN THE EC MOS ON THE HEAT.
PATTERN ALSO HAS A RING-OF-FIRE LOOK TO IT SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR MCS ACTIVITY/RIDGE ROLLERS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE LOWER
GRT LKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. AS THIS
FRONT WORKS SE...A LATE NIGHT SHRA IS POSSIBLE OVR NORTHERN PA.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AT BFD...MDT AND LNS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MDT AND LNS WHERE
RAIN HAS FALLEN. COUPLE THIS WITH MCLEAR SKIES...A LGT WIND AND WET
GROUND ALL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT SAT SHOT SHOWS CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE REGION...THIS WILL
REDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE SEVERITY OF ANY FOG/MIST. THE
CLEARING SKIES OVER BFD HAVE ALLOWED FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MVFR CONTINUES AT
LNS AND MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP AT MDT. IFR REMAINS POSSIBLE AT
MDT...LNS AND IPT. A THICK LAYER OF MID CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE CENTRAL TAF SITES AND SHOULD NEGATE ANY FOG FORMATION.
ANY FOG THAT MANAGES TO FORM OVERNIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF WITHIN A
COUPLE HRS AFTER SUNRISE. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TUES AFTN...AS COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE...AND AT
LNS...MDT AND JST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...EARLY AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE JST/AOO.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1251 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODELS THIS CYCLE CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOME
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NAM INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS INDICATE THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY IS WEAKENING. THUS...I
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE SONORA...JUNCTION...OR
BRADY TERMINALS. IF THESE TERMINALS DO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM IT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY SHORT LIVED. FOR SAN ANGELO...I DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDER FROM 06Z TO 08Z...GIVEN CURRENT THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THERE. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...I DECIDED TO INCLUDE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT ALL FIVE TERMINALS. THE NAM
GENERATES A BROAD QPF AREA ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO...I BELIEVE THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL FIVE
TERMINALS LOOK REASONABLE. THE NAM ALSO BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AND STALLS IT NEAR A STERLING
CITY TO BROWNWOOD LINE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS...LOOK FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 323 HAS EXPIRED. PLUS...SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MOVED INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...AND WE BELIEVE THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS
COMPLEX. SO...FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY. BASED ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...I DECIDED TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND
COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. THE LATEST RUC AND NAM DATA
INDICATE THE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. SO...I ALSO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
COUNTIES AND OUR NORTH WEST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES. THE LATEST
ALPHANUMERIC PRODUCTS REFLECT THESE CHANGES.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
LATEST WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. BASED ON THE SEVERE HISTORY OF SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SOUTH TO INCLUDE OUR NORTHERN
THREE CONCHO VALLEY COUNTIES AND OUR NORTHERN HEARTLAND COUNTIES.
I UPDATED OUR HAZARD GRID TO INCLUDE THESE NEW COUNTIES AND ISSUED
A NEW WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323.
OUR LATEST ZONE PRODUCT REFLECTS THIS UPDATE.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND
STRATUS TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
LATER TONIGHT. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION...
LOOK FOR CHALLENGING FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE RUC INDICATES WE COULD HAVE AN
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE
THIS COMPLEX MAY MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...I DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN ANY OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT
FOR ABILENE. LATER TONIGHT...THE NAM BRING STRATUS AND MVFR
CEILINGS BACK TO JUNCTION. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY/
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY...BUT ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AN ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD IN THE
BIG COUNTRY AT 3 PM...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM A MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT...EAST OF
LUBBOCK THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. IT MAY BE LATE EVENING FOR STORMS
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FROM SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD.
WITH SB CAPES OF 3000 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM SHEARS UP TO 40 KTS (BIG
COUNTRY)THIS EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SPC DAY 1
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE
BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND.
THERE IS A SIMILAR SETUP FOR TUESDAY...WITH DISSIPATING FRONT IN
THE BIG COUNTRY BEING THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON.
04
LONG TERM...
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW POPS
WERE INCLUDED FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE BY 9 PM BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A DECENT MID
LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH TX. I DID INCLUDE LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF ABILENE THROUGH 18Z TO
CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BECOME VERY SCARCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. I WOULD NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW AREAS COULD REACH TRIPLE DIGITS BUT I
THINK THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH BRIEF STRATUS
EPISODES OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. DEEP DIURNAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
DEWPOINTS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTING
THAT THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE RECENT RUNS OF THE
GFS/GEM REGARDING THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF TD 2. THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS BRINGING A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WAVE UP THE RIO GRANDE
AND LIFTING IT NORTH ACROSS WEST TX OVER THE WEEKEND...VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUN IS KEEPING ANY REMNANTS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...
ADVECTING IT NEARLY DUE WEST INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE TPC FORECAST. GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THIS STORM
AND ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE LATEST SOLUTIONS LOOK VERY
REASONABLE. THUS...NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE NEAR WEST
CENTRAL TX.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SOMEWHAT
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 72 95 75 96 73 / 30 10 5 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 96 75 97 74 / 20 5 5 0 0
JUNCTION 72 93 73 94 73 / 20 5 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER/04/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1158 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
SHRA/TSRA ONGOING AND MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 10Z. THERE IS
A SMALL THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IF THERE IS A DIRECT IMPACT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF -TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE VCTS AFTER
00Z AND 01Z, RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS A CHANCE KAMA COULD BE SEE VCTS
AFTER 05Z, BUT SINCE THIS IS AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WE
ELECTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAF. IF THERE IS A DIRECT IMPACT FROM
ANY TSRA, HAIL, WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KT, AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS 10Z-
15Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...LOWERING POPS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RESIDUAL RAIN-COOLED
AIRMASS FROM LAST NIGHT/S THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP IN THIS REGION OF HIGHER STABILITY.
ALSO...PRONOUNCED INVERSION SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FROM KAMA INDICATES
THAT SUBSTANTIAL CAP IS IN PLACE. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AT
11 PM. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
TERMAINAL...APPROACHING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL CAUSE IMPACTS TO
EACH TERMINAL. KDHT WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED FIRST AS CONVECTION IS
MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO. THE NEXT TERMINAL TO BE IMPACTED WILL
LIKELY BY KGUY THEN KAMA SOON AFTER. AS CONVECTION MOVES OVER THE
TERMINALS EXPECT LIMITED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CEILINGS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE INITIAL TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. BY
9...ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE AND LEAVE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THE 18TH. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ON
TIME AND LOCATION OF OCCURRENCE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF PREVAILING
GROUPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 323 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES UNTIL 11 PM. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. DUE TO SATURATED SOILS
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOCALIZED AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TOMORROW REMAIN ACTIVE DAYS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO COME UP THIS MORNING BUT HAVE
BEGUN TO QUICKLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT
THE SLOW HEATING WOULD DELAY INITIATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A MILD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ALSO
CONVECTION OVER THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS HAS INITIATED ONLY ABOUT A
HOUR BEHIND WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE 14Z RUC HRRR. AS SUCH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEVERE THREAT START TIME OF 6 PM REMAINS REALISTIC. WILL
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS IT COULD BACK BUILD ALONG A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT INTO
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST
UNTIL 2-3AM TUESDAY WHEN STRONG CAPPING WILL SETUP
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY LAST WELL PAST 3 AM.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A CONTINUAL DECREASING TREND OF CIN
VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DURING THE
SAME TIME SHOWING AN INCREASE OF SBCAPE VALUES. FORECAST SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT CONTINUE
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...MOIST SOILS FROM PREVIOUS
RAINS...AND PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH WILL KEEP LOCALIZED AND FLASH
FLOODING AS A CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.
TOMORROW MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND DEEP SHEAR OF 35-45
KT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES YET
AGAIN. THE TIME FRAME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE AROUND 4 PM WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAXIMIZING AFTER 6 PM. STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 3 AM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO
THE PANHANDLES AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST AND BACK TO THE WEST WHICH WILL OPEN UP THE
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AXIS PLACEMENT THIS FAR OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
JJ/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1125 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 323 HAS EXPIRED. PLUS...SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MOVED INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...AND WE BELIEVE THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS
COMPLEX. SO...FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY. BASED ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...I DECIDED TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND
COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. THE LATEST RUC AND NAM DATA
INDICATE THE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. SO...I ALSO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
COUNTIES AND OUR NORTH WEST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES. THE LATEST
ALPHANUMERIC PRODUCTS REFLECT THESE CHANGES.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
LATEST WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. BASED ON THE SEVERE HISTORY OF SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SOUTH TO INCLUDE OUR NORTHERN
THREE CONCHO VALLEY COUNTIES AND OUR NORTHERN HEARTLAND COUNTIES.
I UPDATED OUR HAZARD GRID TO INCLUDE THESE NEW COUNTIES AND ISSUED
A NEW WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323.
OUR LATEST ZONE PRODUCT REFLECTS THIS UPDATE.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND
STRATUS TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
LATER TONIGHT. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION...
LOOK FOR CHALLENGING FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE RUC INDICATES WE COULD HAVE AN
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE
THIS COMPLEX MAY MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...I DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN ANY OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT
FOR ABILENE. LATER TONIGHT...THE NAM BRING STRATUS AND MVFR
CEILINGS BACK TO JUNCTION. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY/
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY...BUT ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AN ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD IN THE
BIG COUNTRY AT 3 PM...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM A MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT...EAST OF
LUBBOCK THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. IT MAY BE LATE EVENING FOR STORMS
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FROM SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD.
WITH SB CAPES OF 3000 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM SHEARS UP TO 40 KTS (BIG
COUNTRY)THIS EVENING...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SPC DAY 1
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE
BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND.
THERE IS A SIMILAR SETUP FOR TUESDAY...WITH DISSIPATING FRONT IN
THE BIG COUNTRY BEING THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON.
04
LONG TERM...
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW POPS
WERE INCLUDED FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE BY 9 PM BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A DECENT MID
LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH TX. I DID INCLUDE LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF ABILENE THROUGH 18Z TO
CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BECOME VERY SCARCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CREEPING
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. I WOULD NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW AREAS COULD REACH TRIPLE DIGITS BUT I
THINK THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH BRIEF STRATUS
EPISODES OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. DEEP DIURNAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
DEWPOINTS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTING
THAT THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE RECENT RUNS OF THE
GFS/GEM REGARDING THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF TD 2. THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS BRINGING A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WAVE UP THE RIO GRANDE
AND LIFTING IT NORTH ACROSS WEST TX OVER THE WEEKEND...VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUN IS KEEPING ANY REMNANTS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...
ADVECTING IT NEARLY DUE WEST INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE TPC FORECAST. GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THIS STORM
AND ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE LATEST SOLUTIONS LOOK VERY
REASONABLE. THUS...NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE NEAR WEST
CENTRAL TX.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SOMEWHAT
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 92 72 95 75 / 60 30 30 10 5
SAN ANGELO 72 94 73 96 75 / 50 20 20 5 0
JUNCTION 73 93 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 5 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER/04/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RIVERTON WY
1126 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY (ISSUED AT 240 PM)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THEIR ADJACENT VALLEYS AND BASINS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYLIGHT THIS EVENING...BUT ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER...STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO START DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGER HAIL. THESE STRONGER STORMS SEEM MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS
JOHNSON COUNTY...BUT THE EXTENT OF STRONGER STORM COVERAGE MAY NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AGAIN DECREASING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING. WIND WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOUTHEASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY WANING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE 0.50 PRECIPITABLE WATER LINE.
ON WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN ON TUESDAY WITH MODELS
SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO UNDER 0.50 FOR ALL AREAS. ANY
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WHERE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND SOMEWHAT MORE
INSTABILITY DUE TO A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
IDAHO. WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE RED DESERT THROUGH ROCK SPRINGS. IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE HIGH WIND SINCE 700 MILLIBAR WINDS ARE NOT STRONG
ENOUGH...BUT SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 10 PERCENT BUT NO RED FLAGS AT THIS
TIME SINCE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL YET. THE DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL
BRING A WARM DAY WITH SOME BASINS SEEING HIGHS AROUND 90. LITTLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT COULD GET QUITE CHILLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS...WITH EVEN
SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE MORE PROTECTED SPOTS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LESS WIND AS
WELL. AS FOR ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WE CAN NOT RULE SOMETHING
OUT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO FOR WE
TRIMMED POPS A BIT ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND KEPT ANY ACTIVITY
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE. AS A SIDE NOTE...THE SUMMER SOLSTICE IS AT
11:04 PM ON THURSDAY NIGHT SO THAT IS WHEN SUMMER ARRIVES.
AND NOW...TO CELEBRATE THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SUMMER...WE PRESENT THE
DISCUSSION OF FRIDAY WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL VERSION OF THE CLASSIC
OLD SCHOOL RAP SONG SUMMERTIME. SO...DRUMS PLEASE.
HERE IT IS...A PATTERN SLIGHTLY TRANSFORMED
A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE LATE SPRING NORM
JUST A LITTLE WEATHER TO BREAK THE MONOTONY
OF ALL THE STRONG STORMS THAT HAVE GOTTEN TO BE
A LITTLE BIT OUT OF CONTROL AS THE DAY STARTS OFF COOL
BUT ENDS UP WARM ENOUGH TO GO SWIMMING AT THE POOL
GIVE ME A NICE GENTLE BREEZE
JUST ENOUGH TO RUFFLE THE LEAVES ON THE TREES
AND JUST LIKE THE DAY THAT HAS JUST PAST
IN JOHNSON COUNTY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLAST
BUT ALL IN ALL AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB
IT LOOKS NICE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMERTIME.
IN OTHER WORDS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT INTO MONTANA AND LOSE
SOME ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER. A BIT MORE MOISTURE MAY HANG
AROUND FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BUT ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA RAIN
FREE. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE BRUSHING BY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL BUT
NOT UNUSUALLY SO. AS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONTINUITY INDICATED
MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT MORE
MOISTURE SPREADING IN. THE EUROPEAN LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE AREA BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 06Z WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJAC TO KPNA TO KLND TO KCPR. MAINLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THIS LINE. WIND GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS. NORTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE THE
THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR AND LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STORMS. THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL END BY 06Z WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. ACTIVITY
WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYLIGHT...THOUGH SOME MAY LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING ON TUESDAY...WITH HUMIDITY DECREASING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER...STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
ERRATIC WIND AND LARGER HAIL. THE PROMINENT AREAS FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT ARE JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OVER THE BIGHORN BASIN.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
417 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY...
CURRENTLY...
AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER WAS CLEARLY SEEN IS RADAR
IMAGERY SPINNING JUST NE OF THE FAR NE CO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
(3 AM). CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WITH THIS WAS DROPPING SWD ACROSS EC CO.
OTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WERE NOTED OVER NE NM. A FE LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE NOTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SE PLAINS. DWPTS OVER THE
REGION WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.
TODAY...
I SEE PRETTY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE TODAY INDICATING THAT WE
MAY SEE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE ROTATING STORM FORM ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
IN THE GENERAL AREA OF DOUGLAS/ELBERT/EL PASO COUNTY AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE EL PASO COUNTY...INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND THEN
THE GREATER LA JUNTA REGION LATER IN THE EVENING. THE
NAM...GFS...AND RAP ALL SHOW THIS SAME GENERAL SIGNAL. ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SIMULATIONS
SHOW LOCAL BACKING OF THE LLVL WINDS OVER THE PALMER DVD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE
LLVL SHEAR. RATHER STRONG SE SFC INFLOW IS PRGD (AND MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR DAYS) SO EXPECT STORM WILL BE INFLOW-DOMINANT
FOR A GOOD PART OF ITS LIFE. THE HODOGRAPH IS CURVED BUT THE OVERALL
MAGNITUDE IS NOT STRONG. CAPE IS PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 1000-1500
J/KG AND TEMPS AT 500 ARE AROUND -9 TO -10C.
WITH THAT SAID...THE HI-RES DATA (SPC SSEO...NSSL WRF...LOCAL
WRF...IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THEY DO SHOW A WEAK
ROTATING STORM THIS REGION BUT MOVE IT OFF QUICKLY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR...PAST HISTORY THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS DURING PRIME HEATING...THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER EC CO...AND THE FACT
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...I
DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE REGION. I HAVE
MENTIONED SEVERE IN THE GRIDDS AND SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR
TODAY. BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN...THE MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE SHOULD
BE IN THE N EL PASO COUNTY REGION...AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW SUPERCELL TORNADO
THREAT THIS REGION. I BELIEVE THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE A WIND THREAT
AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREATER
LA JUNTA REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE WALDO...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THE DWPTS...AND
THE FACT THAT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL BE EXPOSED ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE BLACK FOREST FIRE MOP-UP
OPERATIONS. LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING...AND THE VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TORNADO...COULD AFFECT
THESE FOLKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL PUT THE ROCKIES UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH
DROPPING HUMIDITY VALUES TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25
CORRIDOR. HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CRITERIA ARE
BEING MET ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT FUELS HAVE BEEN LISTED AS NOT
CRITICAL AND AREAS OUT EAST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE AREAS. ALSO REMOVED
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE DRYLINE MIXING
WELL OUT INTO KANSAS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO. CONTINUED VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST AND FUELS MOST
CRITICAL. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS...SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND EL PASO COUNTY FOR THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY NEED
TO DO THE SAME FOR FRIDAY IN THE FUTURE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS. NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW NORTHWARD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND LIFT THEM NORTHEAST
INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. HAVE LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
KCOS. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE A THREAT. STRONG OUTFLOW IS NEAR
CERTAIN AT SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
KCOS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORMS/OUTFLOW AFFECT THE TAF SITE.
VFR AT KCOS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KPUB WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO CERTAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD.
KALS SHOULD BE VFR ALL DAY. I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCAL HIGH BASED
CONVECTION CAUSING GUST WINDS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ220>227.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1011 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1010 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD TO AROUND THE I-74
CORRIDOR. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL HELP TRIGGER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM ABOUT PEORIA TO
WINCHESTER EASTWARD. LATEST RAP MODEL SHOWING ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH OVER 2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...SO THIS RISK AREA APPEARS WARRANTED. COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAINS WITH THE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS AS PWAT VALUES IN
THAT AREA ARE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAVE SENT SOME MINOR ZONE/GRID UPDATES...MAINLY TO ADJUST THE
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR REASONABLE.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL IL TAF SITES NEXT
HOUR OR TWO ESPECIALLY AT BMI AND CMI ALONG WITH 500 FOOT BROKEN
CEILINGS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD I-74 EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINAL AIRPORTS. ALSO A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE (572 DM 500 MB LOW) NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WILL TRACK SE
ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HI-RES MODELS SHOW
I-74 TAF SITES MAY BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE VFR BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 5K FT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED OUT EARLY EVENING AND CLEAR BETWEEN
02-04Z THIS EVENING. WSW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL TURN NE AND
INCREASE TO 7-11 KTS DURING THIS MORNING AND HAVE RECENTLY DONE SO
AT BMI AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES SOUTHWARD FROM I-74. NE WINDS TO
DIMINISH LIGHT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA E/SE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS IT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY. VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL...PROVIDING
ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...CAPE VALUES WILL REACH THE 1500 TO 2500J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WILL CARRY 30-40 POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ACCORDINGLY. AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS
LOST...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WILL LINGER A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE S/SW KILX CWA THIS EVENING...THEN
WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL PROVIDE WARM/DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. NEXT APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE ON
THURSDAY...AS A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. DESPITE
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AIR MASS WILL BE
RATHER DRY...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. HAVE
GONE WITH A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST...WITH JUST A SLIM CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER WEST OF I-55 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...LEADING TO A HOT AND LARGELY DRY EXTENDED FORECAST.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND
WHETHER ANY NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...AS
HIGH TEMPS REACH THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z JUN 18
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 168HR/00Z TUE...THEN
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GFS HOLDS ONTO
RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN
IN FOR MUCH OF THE SPRING...THINK ECMWF HAS A MORE REALISTIC
ANSWER. WILL THEREFORE GRADUALLY INTRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HOT DOES IT
GET. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AIR MASS HAS DRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS AND FORECAST FAILED FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDED UP BEING STRONGER OVER THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AT JET LEVEL APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR
APART AT MID LEVELS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST WITH
THE OLDER ECMWF DOING THE WORST. THE HRRR WAS CATCHING THE INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS/CLUSTER WELL AND WILL USE INITIALLY.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
MOVING IN...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW USED THE
HRRR FOR THE POPS AND WINDS THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS CATCHING THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS WELL.
MAIN JET LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME AM THINKING THEY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. SO WENT NEAR
TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE.
QUESTIONS THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST WITH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS MAKING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED CINH
IS THE LOWEST AND BREAKABLE IN THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
WILL TRANSITION THE CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE EAST WHILE KEEPING SOME
KIND OF CHANCE IN THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND
UPPER LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME JET LIFT REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT THEN THE JET GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY AND LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LINGERING LIFT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING.
THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THE REDEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THAT. SO WILL START WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE BORDER
AND HAVE A LOW CHANCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION. THEN THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE THEY INCREASE THE WINDS. IT DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ALSO DEWPOINTS LOOK LIKE THEY BECOME LOW IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. MODELS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AM
SKEPTICAL OF TOO BIG OF AN INCREASE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THEN STALLING OR WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH. INITIALLY FOR THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WITH VERY TOASTY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALSO
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. BY THE END OF THE
DAY THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DURING THE NIGHT THIS LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO DESPITE SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...WILL KEEP THIS WHOLE PERIOD DRY DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DEEP DRY LAYER.
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WIND
SHIFT. THE NORTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
BOUNDARY BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S THERE. GIVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IT WILL GET NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN
MORE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES WILL HELP PRODUCE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PAST KMCK AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWERS
WILL LINGER NEAR THE TERMINAL. WINDS FOR BOTH SITES WILL BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FOR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN CHANGING
TO SOUTH. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT BOTH
SITES LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
AS TO EXACTLY WHERE STORMS WILL PASS. THEREFORE...ONLY VICINITY
MENTIONS ARE IN TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
956 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
Morning cloud cover across the southeast forecast area should keep
highs temperatures several degrees under readings to the northwest.
Bumped highs up a couple of degrees in the latter region given good
heating getting started now. Still think initiation in that area
will hold off till at least mid afternoon so have tweaked pop grids
to cover that. Also reduced afternoon chances across the south,
where lack of heating should limit coverage. The NARRE and to a
lesser extent the latest HRRR agree with this scenario.
As for severe chances, shortwave trough over northern Iowa should
move to the Chicago area by late afternoon. Falling heights ahead of
this trough should bring cooler air aloft. Afternoon forecast
soundings indicate less moisture to work with and CAPEs not as high
as yesterday, but lower wet-bulb zeroes. With drier air in the mid
levels, think damaging wind gusts and hail will be the main threats
as storm clusters develop over the north and move southward.
Issued at 635 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
Area of light rain continues to shift slowly eastward this morning.
Main area of rain should be east of I-65 after 12Z and then exit the
I-75 corridor by mid-morning. Drier air to the northwest will move
into the region this morning which should allow skies to partially
clear from the west to the east. Current forecast has this well in
hand, so only minor updates were made to the grids to better time
the exit of the rainfall this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2013
Radar continues to show widespread light rain continuing across the
forecast area this morning. Convectively induced MCV continues to
push through middle Tennessee this morning with the heaviest
activity mainly staying to our south. Some moderate rain showers
will be possible across our southern Kentucky counties over the next
few hours...and a rumble of thunder or two can not be ruled out.
Elsewhere, light rain is beginning to diminish across our northwest
and western sections. Expect to see precipitation come to an end
toward sunrise over our northwest sections. Additional convection
is forecast to develop just to our northeast...between Indianapolis
and Covington later this morning...according to our local WRF model
run. Indeed, convection has developed over the last hour in this
general area. This activity is forecast to slide southeast and may
affect our far NE counties after sunrise. However, the local WRF
shows this activity decaying in the 13-14Z time frame. Temperatures
this morning will continue to be nearly steady state with lower to
middle 60s in the north and upper 60s to around 70 in the south.
Patchy fog will be a possibility in the typical low-lying and fog
prone areas until sunrise.
Somewhat of a complicated and overall low confidence forecast today
regarding cloud cover and additional convection. Widespread
convective debris will initially limit our solar insolation this
morning...keeping morning temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
However, as the afternoon wears on, we should see cloud cover
decrease...especially across the west and northwestern sections
which will allow temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 80s.
Real question mark is over the east...where cloud cover may keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80. Should clouds break up
faster, temperatures in future forecasts may need to be increased
over there.
As we heat up, we will destabilize once again thanks in part to
slightly cooler mid-level temperatures which will allow lapse rates
to approach 7 C/km. The afternoon heating combined with dewpoints
in the 60s should yield a moderately unstable atmosphere resulting
in isolated-scattered convection to develop across the region. With
this in mind...plan on keeping isolated-scattered PoPs in the
forecast for this afternoon.
More interesting convective development is possible late this
afternoon and evening as mid-level wave dives down from the Dakotas
into the Ohio Valley. As this feature pulls into the region, it
will encounter the moderately unstable and weakly sheared
atmosphere. Overall shear is not that great as we will be located
on the southern edge of the westerly flow with values pegged at 35
to maybe 40 kts. Latest high resolution NAM...WRF...and LMK WRF
models all develop convection across central Indiana this afternoon
and then drop it southeast into our southern Indiana counties by
this evening. This activity should continue into areas south of the
Ohio River early this evening, but is expected to weaken with the
loss of heating and increasing PBL stability. Some storms could be
on the strong to severe side this afternoon across our northern
sections. Based on the severe parameters of shear/instability that
damaging winds and near severe hail would be possible. Overall, feel
that the threat is likely to be more to our north where the stronger
shear would be located (up around the I-70 corridor). After the
activity dissipates, clear to partly cloudy skies are expected for
the overnight period with lows in the lower-middle 60s.
More quiet and tranquil weather looks likely on Wednesday with
afternoon highs warming into the lower to middle 80s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
The long term will be fairly quiet with just occasional slight
chances for thunderstorms. At the surface high pressure will slide
east of the region early in the period and we will then remain in
between the high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west.
Aloft a ridge will build from Texas to the Lower Mississippi River
Valley and then shift slowly eastward.
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the long term. A few
different weak disturbances may bring a slight chance of showers
thunderstorms to south central Kentucky on Friday, to northeastern
portions of the forecast area on Sunday, and to the whole area on
Monday. These storms are not expected to be widespread at this time.
Temperatures will warm into this weekend. Highs Saturday through
Monday are expected to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows
will go from the lower 60s on Thursday morning to upper 60s and
lower 70s this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
Widespread rain shower activity continues to press eastward this
morning. The rain has already cleared KSDF and will clear KBWG and
KLEX within the next hour or so. After that, VFR conditions are
expected across the region for the remainder of the morning and into
the afternoon hours.
Some isolated-scattered convection will be possible later this
afternoon due to convective heating. In addition, a mid-level
disturbance is forecast to drop into the region from the NW later
this evening and may spawn additional convection across southern
Indiana which may affect KSDF and KLEX after 19/00Z.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Updates..........MJ/RJS
Short Term.......MJ
Long Term........EER
Aviation.........MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
931 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
MCv over central NE, shortwave sliding southeast through IA and a
weak frontal boundary moving south through the CWA has muddied the
water for the next 12 hours. All models except the latest RAP are
unable to handle the meso feature in NE. However, the 12z NAM and
even the 06z GFS do develop afternoon convection along the frontal
boundary from northeast KS through west central MO. given the
proximity of the MCV moving into a more unstable airmass...the 12z
NAM forecasts afternoon MUCAPES of 2000+ J/kg along and south of this
front believe it prudent as a starting point to insert low chance PoPs
over the west central counties after 20Z. May need to continue chance
PoPs into the evenign hours across the southern CWA but will assess
that potential later.
The more widely scattered convection across northern MO and southern
IA is expected to dissipate this morning as it slides across northern MO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
With upper ridging to the west and northwest flow overhead,
conditions today should be generally dry while temperatures stay
close to average. A weak shortwave in this flow pattern will drop out
of Minnesota into the Corn Belt through the day, clipping northeast
Missouri in the process. Moisture and instability will be
lacking over this area thanks to surface ridging building in from the
north. Therefore the only effects from this system should be a few
high clouds and possibly some daytime cumulus. Some short-range
models are also bringing precipitation out of western Nebraska into
northwest Missouri later this morning. This activity should have a
tough time surviving as far east as MO due to dry air in place, so
stayed with a dry forecast for all areas through the afternoon.
Upper ridge to the west will flatten slightly on Wednesday and shift
its axis westward into the Plains. This will likely allow a weak vort
max to drop east-southeast toward western MO Wednesday and Wednesday
evening with an attendant threat for thunderstorms, especially across
KS and western MO. An increase in moisture should provide weak to
moderate instability for this feature to work with, but weak winds
throughout the troposphere will be unsupportive of strong or severe
storms, at least through Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
Thursday should bring the last real chance for precipitation during
the long range forecast period as a shortwave trough drops through
northern Missouri. Strong shear and decent instability could promote
a stronger storm or two, but increasing CIN and a lack of surface
focus may make storms hard to come by, especially during the
afternoon hours.
After Thursday a ridge will build into the eastern Plains, keeping
most convection off to the north. Precipitation chances will be
limited to the propagation of ongoing storms into the region, which
is hinted at by a few model solutions late Thursday night through
Friday morning; otherwise, the end of the week through the weekend
should be mainly dry. Ridging will also allow temperatures to warm
into the 90s for Friday through Sunday, while southerly winds and
decent Gulf moisture draw upper 60s to 70s dewpoints into the
region. These conditions will result in heat indices nearing 100
degrees in the afternoon hours, and will need to be monitored for
possible heat headlines in the future.
Most models indicate a gradual flattening of the ridge from late
Sunday into Monday as deep low pressure lifts across the Canadian
border. This shift in the pattern may allow for slightly better
chances of precipitation going into early next week, as well as
slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
Showers and a few weak storms over NE/IA are encountering a dry
airmass over northern MO and appear unlikely to affect the STJ or KC
terminals. Otherwise expect winds to become northerly or NNE-erly in
the next couple of hours, slowly veering through the afternoon and
evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
851 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRONTAL CLOUD BANDS BLANKET
MOST OF OUR EASTERN DISTRICT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS EASTER
DOUGLAS COUNTY AND JACKSON COUNTY. ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE COAST AND IN THE LAST FEW HOURS CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD
INTO WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SIDE. COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WE
CAN EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LIFTED
INDICES ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED. COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A RETURN TO WARMER AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF OUR AREA. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS TODAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ALONG THE
COAST, AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. ISOLATED LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF OREGON.
IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST WILL HAVE SOME HOLES AT TIMES THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT NORTH BEND. CLOUD DECKS WILL BE MVFR TO VFR
ON THE WEST SIDE TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE CURRY COAST WHERE IFR TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT VFR BY NOON ALL AREAS EXCEPT AT THE COAST, WHERE
MVFR IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. BTL/BPN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS IN PROGRESS TODAY AS A DEEP
AND FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST STARTS MOVING INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ONSHORE SW FLOW ALOFT IS IS BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MATERIALIZE OVER
THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH COUNTY. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THE SHOWERS
INCREASING OVER THIS SAME AREA AND LIKELY EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THE BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN
AT THE COAST AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF MEDFORD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER THE MIX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WEAK.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OREGON ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO DIP
TO BETWEEN 5500-6000 FEET. THE CRATER LAKE REGION COULD SEE UP TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION. THE SYCAN AND SUMMER RIM
AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON COULD GET IN ON THIS AS WELL. DON`T
EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY NOT HIT 70 IN
MEDFORD WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEING THE RULE OVER
THE EAST. THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A BRIEF FREEZE TO AREAS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND A FREEZE WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED BY THE
DAY SHIFT TODAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE NE WITH ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES OF
WARMING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY. WARMER STILL BY A FEW
DEGREES DAY BY DAY INTO SATURDAY. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME ENERGY MIGHT ROTATE SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT FROM NORTHERN IDAHO.
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST THE
COAST REGION UNDER THE GUN AGAIN FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
AS PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE PARKS OFF THE COAST OF BC. STAVISH
AVIATION...
BASED ON THE 18/12Z TAF CYCLE.
COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TODAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ALONG THE COAST, AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN. ISOLATED LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF OREGON.
IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST WILL HAVE SOME HOLES AT TIMES THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT NORTH BEND. CLOUD DECKS WILL BE MVFR TO VFR
ON THE WEST SIDE TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE CURRY COAST WHERE IFR TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT VFR BY NOON ALL AREAS EXCEPT AT THE COAST, WHERE
MVFR IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. BTL/BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
FJB/FJB/BTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
519 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS IN PROGRESS TODAY AS A DEEP
AND FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST STARTS MOVING INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ONSHORE SW FLOW ALOFT IS IS BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MATERIALIZE OVER
THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH COUNTY. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THE SHOWERS
INCREASING OVER THIS SAME AREA AND LIKELY EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THE BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN
AT THE COAST AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF MEDFORD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER THE MIX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WEAK.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OREGON ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO DIP
TO BETWEEN 5500-6000 FEET. THE CRATER LAKE REGION COULD SEE UP TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION. THE SYCAN AND SUMMER RIM
AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON COULD GET IN ON THIS AS WELL. DON`T
EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY NOT HIT 70 IN
MEDFORD WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEING THE RULE OVER
THE EAST. THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A BRIEF FREEZE TO AREAS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND A FREEZE WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED BY THE
DAY SHIFT TODAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE NE WITH ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES OF
WARMING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY. WARMER STILL BY A FEW
DEGREES DAY BY DAY INTO SATURDAY. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME ENERGY MIGHT ROTATE SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT FROM NORTHERN IDAHO.
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST THE
COAST REGION UNDER THE GUN AGAIN FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
AS PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE PARKS OFF THE COAST OF BC. STAVISH
&&
.AVIATION...
BASED ON THE 18/12Z TAF CYCLE.
COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TODAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ALONG THE COAST, AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN. ISOLATED LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF OREGON.
IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST WILL HAVE SOME HOLES AT TIMES THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT NORTH BEND. CLOUD DECKS WILL BE MVFR TO VFR
ON THE WEST SIDE TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE CURRY COAST WHERE IFR TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT VFR BY NOON ALL AREAS EXCEPT AT THE COAST, WHERE
MVFR IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. BTL/BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
307 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS IN PROGRESS TODAY AS A DEEP
AND FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST STARTS MOVING INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ONSHORE SW FLOW ALOFT IS IS BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MATERIALIZE OVER
THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH COUNTY. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THE SHOWERS
INCREASING OVER THIS SAME AREA AND LIKELY EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THE BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN
AT THE COAST AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF MEDFORD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER THE MIX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WEAK.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OREGON ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO DIP
TO BETWEEN 5500-6000 FEET. THE CRATER LAKE REGION COULD SEE UP TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION. THE SYCAN AND SUMMER RIM
AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON COULD GET IN ON THIS AS WELL. DON`T
EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY NOT HIT 70 IN
MEDFORD WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEING THE RULE OVER
THE EAST. THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A BRIEF FREEZE TO AREAS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND A FREEZE WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED BY THE
DAY SHIFT TODAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE NE WITH ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES OF
WARMING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY. WARMER STILL BY A FEW
DEGREES DAY BY DAY INTO SATURDAY. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME ENERGY MIGHT ROTATE SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT FROM NORTHERN IDAHO.
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST THE
COAST REGION UNDER THE GUN AGAIN FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
AS PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE PARKS OFF THE COAST OF BC. STAVISH
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SOME SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY EATS OF INTERSTATE 5...COULD PRODUCE
PERIODS OF THUNDER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR AT
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER
SUNRISE. AREAS OF MVFR WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE COAST ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION TODAY...MOSTLY INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND THE
CASCADES...WHILE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1048 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT JUNE PATTERN OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION AND BE
REPLACED BY A SUMMERTIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE WITH THE
OFFICIAL START OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER...AND LAST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ROLLING IN FROM THE S. STUFF OVER
PBZ AREA JUST REFUSES TO GET INTO THE LAURELS. SO ALL IS ON
TRACK...AND NO SIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT 1030AM.
PREV DISC...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. MOST OF THE TSRA WILL BE THIS AFTN AS HEATING
KICKS IN EVEN THOUGH A FEW BLIPS ARE ON THE SCOPE ALREADY. BUT
MULTIPLE FORCING MECHANISMS AND SFC BOUNDARIES WILL MAKE IT PRETTY
MUCH IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT WHERE/WHEN SHOWERS WILL BE TODAY.
PREV DISC...
BELT OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW ON THE SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVG EWD FROM QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES WILL SHIFT EWD ACRS NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
LWR LKS IS TEAMING WITH A WELL-DEFINED 300MB JET ENTRANCE REGION
TO MAINTAIN A CLUSTER SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW PA...WITH A FEW LONE
CELLS CROSSING LK ERIE. THE LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THIS AREA OF PCPN AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACRS MCKEAN CO THRU 12Z. OUTSIDE
OF THE NW MTNS...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU DAYBREAK.
IR SATL LOOP SHOWS A SHIELD OF LYRD MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD
ACRS CNTRL PA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCD WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THRU THE TN VLY AND WEAK SFC LOW ADVANCING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
MID-ATLC COAST. ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
ACRS MN..AND WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE LWR-MID OH VLY BY THIS
AFTN. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY /FROM THE SW/ AND
AFOREMENTIONED SFC COLD FRONT /FROM THE NW/ SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING/LIFT TO FUEL SCT TO NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTN. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BEST
LOCATION/AERIAL CVRG WILL BE. THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SPC WRF/SSEO
HIGHLIGHT THE AREA SOUTH OF I-80...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE 17-18Z TIMEFRAME.
THE SVR THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER I CANT RULE OUT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN 35-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WITH THE MAIN SURGE OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVER SOUTHEAST PA. THE
LATER ARRIVING MESO GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE FORMING A CONSENSUS THAT
THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE THE MOST ACTIVITY COINCIDENT
WITH PEAK HEATING. AS SUCH...EXPECT TSTM CVRG TO WANE/TAPER OFF
WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL/SWD MVMT OF COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACRS THE CWA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCH
DRIER/BELOW NORMAL PWAT AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME LOW POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFT 06Z...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT WITH
COOLER NLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
70S. CLR/CALM CONDS WED NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACRS THE NRN TIER...AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE
SOUTH. SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NRN MTNS COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVG ACRS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE EWD WITH RISING HGTS
EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ERN CONUS. CONSENSUS OF MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO BUILD THE RIDGE TO 588+DM THRU THE
WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST TASTE OF SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY ARRIVING
ON SCHEDULE.
LLVL S-SWLY RETURN FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTING OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LLVL MSTR THRU THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR AN AFTN POP-UP/AIRMASS TYPE SHOWER
OR TSTM ON FRI.
ABOVE NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS WITH
THE GFS-BASED MOS GUID MORE BULLISH THAN THE EC MOS ON THE HEAT.
PATTERN ALSO HAS A RING-OF-FIRE LOOK TO IT SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR MCS ACTIVITY/RIDGE ROLLERS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MUCH HIGHER IN THE S THAN ELSEWHERE. WAVE
ROLLING TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS PUSHING A
SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER INTO THE LOWER SUSQ WHICH
WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT FLYING CONDITIONS AT THV/MDT/CXY/LNS BEFORE
NOON. A BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN TIER THIS MORNING WILL INCH TO THE
SOUTH AND DEVELOP SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SWRN AIRFIELDS AS WELL. BFD LOOKS TO BE THE TERMINAL WITH THE
LEAST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA. VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...WITH BRIEF
VSBY REDUCTION POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. BUT WITHOUT DIURNAL HEAT...MUCH OF THE TSRA WILL BE DONE
AROUND 02Z. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY
TONIGHT IN FOG - ESP WHERE RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
WED...EARLY AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE JST/AOO.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
812 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT JUNE PATTERN OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION AND BE
REPLACED BY A SUMMERTIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE WITH THE
OFFICIAL START OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER...AND LAST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. MOST OF THE TSRA WILL BE THIS AFTN AS HEATING
KICKS IN EVEN THOUGH A FEW BLIPS ARE ON THE SCOPE ALREADY. BUT
MULTIPLE FORCING MECHANISMS AND SFC BOUNDARIES WILL MAKE IT PRETTY
MUCH IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT WHERE/WHEN SHOWERS WILL BE TODAY.
PREV DISC...
BELT OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW ON THE SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVG EWD FROM QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES WILL SHIFT EWD ACRS NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
LWR LKS IS TEAMING WITH A WELL-DEFINED 300MB JET ENTRANCE REGION
TO MAINTAIN A CLUSTER SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW PA...WITH A FEW LONE
CELLS CROSSING LK ERIE. THE LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THIS AREA OF PCPN AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACRS MCKEAN CO THRU 12Z. OUTSIDE
OF THE NW MTNS...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU DAYBREAK.
IR SATL LOOP SHOWS A SHIELD OF LYRD MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD
ACRS CNTRL PA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCD WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THRU THE TN VLY AND WEAK SFC LOW ADVANCING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
MID-ATLC COAST. ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
ACRS MN..AND WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE LWR-MID OH VLY BY THIS
AFTN. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY /FROM THE SW/ AND
AFOREMENTIONED SFC COLD FRONT /FROM THE NW/ SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING/LIFT TO FUEL SCT TO NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTN. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BEST
LOCATION/AERIAL CVRG WILL BE. THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SPC WRF/SSEO
HIGHLIGHT THE AREA SOUTH OF I-80...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE 17-18Z TIMEFRAME.
THE SVR THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER I CANT RULE OUT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN 35-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WITH THE MAIN SURGE OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVER SOUTHEAST PA. THE
LATER ARRIVING MESO GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE FORMING A CONSENSUS THAT
THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE THE MOST ACTIVITY COINCIDENT
WITH PEAK HEATING. AS SUCH...EXPECT TSTM CVRG TO WANE/TAPER OFF
WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL/SWD MVMT OF COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACRS THE CWA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCH
DRIER/BELOW NORMAL PWAT AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME LOW POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFT 06Z...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT WITH
COOLER NLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
70S. CLR/CALM CONDS WED NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACRS THE NRN TIER...AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE
SOUTH. SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NRN MTNS COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVG ACRS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE EWD WITH RISING HGTS
EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ERN CONUS. CONSENSUS OF MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO BUILD THE RIDGE TO 588+DM THRU THE
WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST TASTE OF SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY ARRIVING
ON SCHEDULE.
LLVL S-SWLY RETURN FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTING OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LLVL MSTR THRU THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR AN AFTN POP-UP/AIRMASS TYPE SHOWER
OR TSTM ON FRI.
ABOVE NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS WITH
THE GFS-BASED MOS GUID MORE BULLISH THAN THE EC MOS ON THE HEAT.
PATTERN ALSO HAS A RING-OF-FIRE LOOK TO IT SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR MCS ACTIVITY/RIDGE ROLLERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MEADERING IN THE NW CORNER
OF THE STATE. WEAK SHOWERS ARE MAKING THERE WAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. ANY SHOWERS ARE NOT REDUCING
CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREPT UP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE. IFR VSBYS AT LNS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES TO THE SOUTH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN.
VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...WITH BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION COULD
LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE...AND AT LNS...MDT AND JST
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AGAIN BE A
POSSIBILITY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...EARLY AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE JST/AOO.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
701 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT JUNE PATTERN OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION AND BE
REPLACED BY A SUMMERTIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE WITH THE
OFFICIAL START OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER...AND LAST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BELT OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW ON THE SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVG EWD FROM QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES WILL SHIFT EWD ACRS NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
LWR LKS IS TEAMING WITH A WELL-DEFINED 300MB JET ENTRANCE REGION
TO MAINTAIN A CLUSTER SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW PA...WITH A FEW LONE
CELLS CROSSING LK ERIE. THE LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THIS AREA OF PCPN AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACRS MCKEAN CO THRU 12Z. OUTSIDE
OF THE NW MTNS...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU DAYBREAK.
IR SATL LOOP SHOWS A SHIELD OF LYRD MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD
ACRS CNTRL PA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCD WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THRU THE TN VLY AND WEAK SFC LOW ADVANCING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
MID-ATLC COAST. ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
ACRS MN..AND WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE LWR-MID OH VLY BY THIS
AFTN. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY /FROM THE SW/ AND
AFOREMENTIONED SFC COLD FRONT /FROM THE NW/ SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING/LIFT TO FUEL SCT TO NMRS TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTN. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE BEST
LOCATION/AERIAL CVRG WILL BE. THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SPC WRF/SSEO
HIGHLIGHT THE AREA SOUTH OF I-80...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE 17-18Z TIMEFRAME.
THE SVR THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER I CANT RULE OUT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN 35-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WITH THE MAIN SURGE OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVER SOUTHEAST PA. THE
LATER ARRIVING MESO GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE FORMING A CONSENSUS THAT
THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE THE MOST ACTIVITY COINCIDENT
WITH PEAK HEATING. AS SUCH...EXPECT TSTM CVRG TO WANE/TAPER OFF
WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL/SWD MVMT OF COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACRS THE CWA BY LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCH
DRIER/BELOW NORMAL PWAT AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME LOW POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFT 06Z...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT WITH
COOLER NLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
70S. CLR/CALM CONDS WED NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACRS THE NRN TIER...AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE
SOUTH. SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NRN MTNS COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVG ACRS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE EWD WITH RISING HGTS
EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ERN CONUS. CONSENSUS OF MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO BUILD THE RIDGE TO 588+DM THRU THE
WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST TASTE OF SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY ARRIVING
ON SCHEDULE.
LLVL S-SWLY RETURN FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTING OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LLVL MSTR THRU THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR AN AFTN POP-UP/AIRMASS TYPE SHOWER
OR TSTM ON FRI.
ABOVE NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS WITH
THE GFS-BASED MOS GUID MORE BULLISH THAN THE EC MOS ON THE HEAT.
PATTERN ALSO HAS A RING-OF-FIRE LOOK TO IT SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR MCS ACTIVITY/RIDGE ROLLERS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MEADERING IN THE NW CORNER
OF THE STATE. WEAK SHOWERS ARE MAKING THERE WAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. ANY SHOWERS ARE NOT REDUCING
CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREPT UP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE. IFR VSBYS AT LNS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES TO THE SOUTH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN.
VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...WITH BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION COULD
LINGER ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE...AND AT LNS...MDT AND JST
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AGAIN BE A
POSSIBILITY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...EARLY AM LGT RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE JST/AOO.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
802 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today. By
Wednesday a wet and cool weather pattern will take hold of the
region. Showery and cool conditions will continue through the
week, with a drying and warming trend possible by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest HRRR run suggests a decrease, but not total dissipation, of
the elevated convection in the area as the elevated layer upon the
initial forcing is acting upon gets modified/warmed/mixed as
daytime heating occurs. But same model suggests surface based
convection to occur, initially over the mountains to the north
near 18Z and into the early evening while a more robust area of
convection, likely associated with a larger mesoscale shortwave,
grows in intensity and size near 20Z in Eastern Oregon and moves
quickly to the north at near 30 mph or more up into Eastern
Washington and Northern Idaho. It will be very difficult to depict
this scenario with forecast grids and zone forecast wording as
the breaks between the decreasing morning activity and the second
round later in the morning and on through the afternoon/evening is
quite a bit of clutter and the suggested break in activity may not
get articulated all that well, but may get conveyed through
further nowcasts, twitter posts...etc...and any zone updates that
occur may not show much of a change as far as today and tonight
goes. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12z TAFS: Low pressure will move over eastern WA and north ID
today and linger through at least the next 48 hours. Scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms will affect the KGEG/KCOE
corridor this morning while a band of rain will track north over
the KMWH area. The main threat will be periods of heavy rain that
may reduce visibility to MVFR. Another round of convection will
develop late this afternoon and evening which may affect any and
all TAF sites but the main focus will be on northeast WA and the
panhandle of Idaho. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 72 52 54 46 57 46 / 50 80 100 80 70 60
Coeur d`Alene 73 52 56 47 57 45 / 60 90 100 100 90 60
Pullman 74 49 55 44 58 43 / 40 80 100 70 50 60
Lewiston 80 54 61 50 66 49 / 40 70 100 70 50 30
Colville 76 51 63 49 60 46 / 70 90 100 100 80 70
Sandpoint 76 50 58 46 56 44 / 60 100 100 100 90 70
Kellogg 74 50 53 43 53 44 / 70 100 100 100 80 60
Moses Lake 75 55 67 51 65 47 / 80 50 60 40 30 20
Wenatchee 74 56 67 53 62 52 / 60 40 60 50 50 20
Omak 76 53 66 50 62 49 / 70 60 90 70 60 60
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1157 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF UTAH IS HELPING TO FIRE
EARLY THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS. 12Z DENVER SOUNDING WAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BUT GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD THIS MORNING THOUGH
NOW LEVELING OFF NEAR 0.6 INCHES WHICH IS DOWN A BIT FROM THE
SOUNDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN SOME ON THE PLAINS
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S GENERALLY. SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS PRODUCED
A MODEST DENVER CYCLONE WITH THE CONVERGENCE LINE NEAR DIA. NO
RECENT HRRR RUN BUT EARLIER RUNS SHOWED THE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THAT WE ARE SEEING NOW. THIS ALSO AGREES WITH HI
RESOLUTION NCEP MODEL RUNS. STILL EXPECT THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY TO BE GENERALLY EAST OF DIA TO GREELEY AND POSSIBLY
FAVORING MORE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE PLAINS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I70
WHERE MOISTURE LOOKS DEEPER. ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AND ADDED ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE HWO. WITH THE
DENVER CYCLONE CANNOT ELIMINATE SAME THREAT NEAR DIA ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOWER THREAT END.
&&
.AVIATION...MOVED CHANCE OF STORMS UP A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON
ITEMS NOTED ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY BUT AFTER
COORIDNATION WITH CWSU WE SETTLED ON DCVZ BOUNDARY SLIPPING BY
AIRPORT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF
DENVER WITH STORMS FARTHER EAST POSSIBLY PRODUCING MORE DECENT
RAINS. RIGHT NOW ANY FOOTHILLS STORMS NOT LIKELY TO BE WORRISOME
FOR BURN AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE WEAK RIDGE THAT`S BEEN OVER
COLORADO EAST. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER UTAH. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 0.10 TO
0.25 INCHES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READIES RANGING FROM 0.60 TO
1.00 INCHES EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN
ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF LINE
FROM GREELEY TO DIA WHERE CAPES WILL BE 1000-2000 J/KG. STILL ENOUGH
SHEAR IN PLACE FOR A FEW SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND ALONG THE URBAN FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR...CAPES WILL BE 500-1000
J/KG. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SAME BALL PARK AS YESTERDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BRING CONVECTION TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER COLORADO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF COLORADO. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE BENIGN
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ADHERE TO NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS FOR THE MOST PART WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BEFORE
NOON THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...NORMAL PATTERNS RETURN. THE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MINIMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT PROGGS SHOW ALL BUT THE FAR EAST OF THE
CWA IN PRETTY DRY READINGS...MOSTLY UNDER 40S F ALL FOUR PERIODS.
THERE ARE SOME 40S TO LOWER 50S F READINGS OVER THE BORDER AREAS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASE AFTER THAT.
THE ONLY CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE FAR EASTERN BORDER AREA LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY. VALUES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT. THERE
IS ONLY A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL PROGGED ON THE QPF FIELDS OF
THE ECMWF ONLY LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY. WILL GO
WITH NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE ARE 3-6 C
WARMER THAN TODAY`S. THURSDAY`S HIGHS COOL OFF A TAD...1-2 C FROM
WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FLOW
ALOFT STAYS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE IS MINIMAL MOISTURE...AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION...THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING
IT TO THE DENVER AREA...WILL MENTION A FEW AT 2000 FEET IN THE TAFS
FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING IT INTO THE DENVER AREA. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 17Z WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END AROUND 02Z.
HYDROLOGY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE BURN SCARS. THERE MAY BE SHORT LIVED HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE THREAT
FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BURN AREAS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1144 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY...
CURRENTLY...
AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER WAS CLEARLY SEEN IS RADAR
IMAGERY SPINNING JUST NE OF THE FAR NE CO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
(3 AM). CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WITH THIS WAS DROPPING SWD ACROSS EC CO.
OTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WERE NOTED OVER NE NM. A FE LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE NOTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SE PLAINS. DWPTS OVER THE
REGION WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.
TODAY...
I SEE PRETTY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE TODAY INDICATING THAT WE
MAY SEE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE ROTATING STORM FORM ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
IN THE GENERAL AREA OF DOUGLAS/ELBERT/EL PASO COUNTY AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE EL PASO COUNTY...INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND THEN
THE GREATER LA JUNTA REGION LATER IN THE EVENING. THE
NAM...GFS...AND RAP ALL SHOW THIS SAME GENERAL SIGNAL. ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SIMULATIONS
SHOW LOCAL BACKING OF THE LLVL WINDS OVER THE PALMER DVD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE
LLVL SHEAR. RATHER STRONG SE SFC INFLOW IS PRGD (AND MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR DAYS) SO EXPECT STORM WILL BE INFLOW-DOMINANT
FOR A GOOD PART OF ITS LIFE. THE HODOGRAPH IS CURVED BUT THE OVERALL
MAGNITUDE IS NOT STRONG. CAPE IS PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 1000-1500
J/KG AND TEMPS AT 500 ARE AROUND -9 TO -10C.
WITH THAT SAID...THE HI-RES DATA (SPC SSEO...NSSL WRF...LOCAL
WRF...IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THEY DO SHOW A WEAK
ROTATING STORM THIS REGION BUT MOVE IT OFF QUICKLY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR...PAST HISTORY THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS DURING PRIME HEATING...THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER EC CO...AND THE FACT
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...I
DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE REGION. I HAVE
MENTIONED SEVERE IN THE GRIDDS AND SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR
TODAY. BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN...THE MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE SHOULD
BE IN THE N EL PASO COUNTY REGION...AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW SUPERCELL TORNADO
THREAT THIS REGION. I BELIEVE THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE A WIND THREAT
AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREATER
LA JUNTA REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE WALDO...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THE DWPTS...AND
THE FACT THAT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL BE EXPOSED ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE BLACK FOREST FIRE MOP-UP
OPERATIONS. LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING...AND THE VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TORNADO...COULD AFFECT
THESE FOLKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL PUT THE ROCKIES UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH
DROPPING HUMIDITY VALUES TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25
CORRIDOR. HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CRITERIA ARE
BEING MET ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT FUELS HAVE BEEN LISTED AS NOT
CRITICAL AND AREAS OUT EAST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE AREAS. ALSO REMOVED
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE DRYLINE MIXING
WELL OUT INTO KANSAS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO. CONTINUED VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST AND FUELS MOST
CRITICAL. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS...SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND EL PASO COUNTY FOR THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY NEED
TO DO THE SAME FOR FRIDAY IN THE FUTURE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS. NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW NORTHWARD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND LIFT THEM NORTHEAST
INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. HAVE LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO LATEST TAFS. KCOS HAS THE BIGGEST THREAT
OF BEING HIT BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SO ADDED GS TO THE TAF.
KPUB HAS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY OF BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY TS...BUT HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING AFFECTED BY GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP INTO THE TAF TO
REFLECT THAT POTENTIAL. KALS WILL SEE MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO MISS THE TERMINAL.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL...THOUGH WITH
LESS OF A THREAT WILL MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ220>227.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1010 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD TO AROUND THE I-74
CORRIDOR. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL HELP TRIGGER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM ABOUT PEORIA TO
WINCHESTER EASTWARD. LATEST RAP MODEL SHOWING ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH OVER 2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...SO THIS RISK AREA APPEARS WARRANTED. COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAINS WITH THE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS AS PWAT VALUES IN
THAT AREA ARE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAVE SENT SOME MINOR ZONE/GRID UPDATES...MAINLY TO ADJUST THE
CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR REASONABLE.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF SET IS TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS POINTING TO SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEGINNING AROUND 19-20Z AND
MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE KEPT
VCTS WORDING AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE
FOCUSED ON THE KSPI-KDEC-KCMI CORRIDOR BY ADDING TEMPO PERIODS OF
TSRA AND VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORMS...AS THIS AREA IS
NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE THE CONVECTION FADE OUT WITH
SUNSET. DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY OVERNIGHT MVFR FOG CONDITIONS...
BUT ANY AREAS THAT GET EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MAY SEE
SOME DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA E/SE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS IT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY. VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL...PROVIDING
ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...CAPE VALUES WILL REACH THE 1500 TO 2500J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WILL CARRY 30-40 POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ACCORDINGLY. AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS
LOST...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WILL LINGER A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE S/SW KILX CWA THIS EVENING...THEN
WILL GO DRY ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL PROVIDE WARM/DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. NEXT APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE ON
THURSDAY...AS A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. DESPITE
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AIR MASS WILL BE
RATHER DRY...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. HAVE
GONE WITH A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST...WITH JUST A SLIM CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER WEST OF I-55 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...LEADING TO A HOT AND LARGELY DRY EXTENDED FORECAST.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND
WHETHER ANY NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...AS
HIGH TEMPS REACH THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z JUN 18
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 168HR/00Z TUE...THEN
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GFS HOLDS ONTO
RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE RIDGE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE ROCKIES. BASED ON THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN
IN FOR MUCH OF THE SPRING...THINK ECMWF HAS A MORE REALISTIC
ANSWER. WILL THEREFORE GRADUALLY INTRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HOT DOES IT
GET. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AIR MASS HAS DRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS AND FORECAST FAILED FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDED UP BEING STRONGER OVER THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AT JET LEVEL APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR
APART AT MID LEVELS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST WITH
THE OLDER ECMWF DOING THE WORST. THE HRRR WAS CATCHING THE INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS/CLUSTER WELL AND WILL USE INITIALLY.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
MOVING IN...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW USED THE
HRRR FOR THE POPS AND WINDS THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS CATCHING THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS WELL.
MAIN JET LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME AM THINKING THEY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. SO WENT NEAR
TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE.
QUESTIONS THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST WITH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS MAKING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED CINH
IS THE LOWEST AND BREAKABLE IN THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
WILL TRANSITION THE CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE EAST WHILE KEEPING SOME
KIND OF CHANCE IN THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND
UPPER LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME JET LIFT REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT THEN THE JET GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY AND LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LINGERING LIFT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING.
THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THE REDEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THAT. SO WILL START WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE BORDER
AND HAVE A LOW CHANCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION. THEN THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE THEY INCREASE THE WINDS. IT DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ALSO DEWPOINTS LOOK LIKE THEY BECOME LOW IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. MODELS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AM
SKEPTICAL OF TOO BIG OF AN INCREASE.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THEN STALLING OR WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH. INITIALLY FOR THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WITH VERY TOASTY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALSO
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. BY THE END OF THE
DAY THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DURING THE NIGHT THIS LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO DESPITE SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...WILL KEEP THIS WHOLE PERIOD DRY DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DEEP DRY LAYER.
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WIND
SHIFT. THE NORTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
BOUNDARY BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S THERE. GIVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IT WILL GET NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN
MORE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES
AROUND FL060. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SSE AT 10-15 WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AT KGLD THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BETTER
POTENTIAL AT KGLD THAN KMCK BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS ROUGHLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS EVEN WITH CONVECTION. SURFACE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS BUT ESPECIALLY KGLD WHERE GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
Morning cloud cover across the southeast forecast area should keep
highs temperatures several degrees under readings to the northwest.
Bumped highs up a couple of degrees in the latter region given good
heating getting started now. Still think initiation in that area
will hold off till at least mid afternoon so have tweaked pop grids
to cover that. Also reduced afternoon chances across the south,
where lack of heating should limit coverage. The NARRE and to a
lesser extent the latest HRRR agree with this scenario.
As for severe chances, shortwave trough over northern Iowa should
move to the Chicago area by late afternoon. Falling heights ahead of
this trough should bring cooler air aloft. Afternoon forecast
soundings indicate less moisture to work with and CAPEs not as high
as yesterday, but lower wet-bulb zeroes. With drier air in the mid
levels, think damaging wind gusts and hail will be the main threats
as storm clusters develop over the north and move southward.
Issued at 635 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
Area of light rain continues to shift slowly eastward this morning.
Main area of rain should be east of I-65 after 12Z and then exit the
I-75 corridor by mid-morning. Drier air to the northwest will move
into the region this morning which should allow skies to partially
clear from the west to the east. Current forecast has this well in
hand, so only minor updates were made to the grids to better time
the exit of the rainfall this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2013
Radar continues to show widespread light rain continuing across the
forecast area this morning. Convectively induced MCV continues to
push through middle Tennessee this morning with the heaviest
activity mainly staying to our south. Some moderate rain showers
will be possible across our southern Kentucky counties over the next
few hours...and a rumble of thunder or two can not be ruled out.
Elsewhere, light rain is beginning to diminish across our northwest
and western sections. Expect to see precipitation come to an end
toward sunrise over our northwest sections. Additional convection
is forecast to develop just to our northeast...between Indianapolis
and Covington later this morning...according to our local WRF model
run. Indeed, convection has developed over the last hour in this
general area. This activity is forecast to slide southeast and may
affect our far NE counties after sunrise. However, the local WRF
shows this activity decaying in the 13-14Z time frame. Temperatures
this morning will continue to be nearly steady state with lower to
middle 60s in the north and upper 60s to around 70 in the south.
Patchy fog will be a possibility in the typical low-lying and fog
prone areas until sunrise.
Somewhat of a complicated and overall low confidence forecast today
regarding cloud cover and additional convection. Widespread
convective debris will initially limit our solar insolation this
morning...keeping morning temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
However, as the afternoon wears on, we should see cloud cover
decrease...especially across the west and northwestern sections
which will allow temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 80s.
Real question mark is over the east...where cloud cover may keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80. Should clouds break up
faster, temperatures in future forecasts may need to be increased
over there.
As we heat up, we will destabilize once again thanks in part to
slightly cooler mid-level temperatures which will allow lapse rates
to approach 7 C/km. The afternoon heating combined with dewpoints
in the 60s should yield a moderately unstable atmosphere resulting
in isolated-scattered convection to develop across the region. With
this in mind...plan on keeping isolated-scattered PoPs in the
forecast for this afternoon.
More interesting convective development is possible late this
afternoon and evening as mid-level wave dives down from the Dakotas
into the Ohio Valley. As this feature pulls into the region, it
will encounter the moderately unstable and weakly sheared
atmosphere. Overall shear is not that great as we will be located
on the southern edge of the westerly flow with values pegged at 35
to maybe 40 kts. Latest high resolution NAM...WRF...and LMK WRF
models all develop convection across central Indiana this afternoon
and then drop it southeast into our southern Indiana counties by
this evening. This activity should continue into areas south of the
Ohio River early this evening, but is expected to weaken with the
loss of heating and increasing PBL stability. Some storms could be
on the strong to severe side this afternoon across our northern
sections. Based on the severe parameters of shear/instability that
damaging winds and near severe hail would be possible. Overall, feel
that the threat is likely to be more to our north where the stronger
shear would be located (up around the I-70 corridor). After the
activity dissipates, clear to partly cloudy skies are expected for
the overnight period with lows in the lower-middle 60s.
More quiet and tranquil weather looks likely on Wednesday with
afternoon highs warming into the lower to middle 80s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
The long term will be fairly quiet with just occasional slight
chances for thunderstorms. At the surface high pressure will slide
east of the region early in the period and we will then remain in
between the high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west.
Aloft a ridge will build from Texas to the Lower Mississippi River
Valley and then shift slowly eastward.
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the long term. A few
different weak disturbances may bring a slight chance of showers
thunderstorms to south central Kentucky on Friday, to northeastern
portions of the forecast area on Sunday, and to the whole area on
Monday. These storms are not expected to be widespread at this time.
Temperatures will warm into this weekend. Highs Saturday through
Monday are expected to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows
will go from the lower 60s on Thursday morning to upper 60s and
lower 70s this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
A shortwave trough crossing the IA/IL border now will continue
dropping southeast today. This system, along with a frontal boundary
to our north, will force scattered storms to develop late this
afternoon. Think the best chance for timing purposes will run in the
evening hours at the KSDF and KLEX terminals. The threat is not zero
at BWG later, but think it is low enough to keep out of the TAFs at
this time. As storms develop to our north and moving
south/southeast, we likely will amend for tempo groups. Once the
front drops south of the region tonight, the rain chance will end
and next up will be chances for fog overnight. For now have all
three sites going to MVFR, as dewpoint drop behind the front should
not occur till later in the morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Updates..........MJ/RJS
Short Term.......MJ
Long Term........EER
Aviation.........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A RIDGE
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM JAMES BAY TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION (PWAT AROUND 0.50 OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL)...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ONLY SUPPORTED A PATCH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SE
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RETURN SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A BIT MORE MIXING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR WEST AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 INLAND TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...SRLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB
WILL SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS READINGS IN THE 60S. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E
AXIS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA WITH WEAK SHRTWVS IN NW FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD AS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FOR THE TIMING OF THE POPS AS IT MOVES IN.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AND
WILL COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ON THE BOUNDARY...AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME TILTING OF THE UPDRAFTS. HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AS NCAPE VALUES AROUND .1
SHOULD KEEP ANY HAIL FROM GROWING TOO LARGE. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL...CLOSEST
TO LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AND THEN FOLLOW THE STORM MOTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. FROM THIS LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL LOOKS TO
SETUP FROM THE STALLED TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN LOCATED AROUND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT THIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN...IT IS VERY CONDUCIVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BUT TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVES AND POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY GROW FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PULLS PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. USING ML CAPE VALUES TO REMOVE SOME OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST BIASES IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE
ARE STILL SOME DECENT VALUES FOR U.P. STANDARDS. FRIDAY THEY LOOK TO
PEAK IN THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE WEST AND THEN GROW TO
1500-2500 J/KG FOR SAT/SUN DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT...WHILE
THE GEM/ECMWF TRY TO KEEP THE FRONT A TOUCH SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT
WILL PROBABLY BE A VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORM TYPES DURING THAT PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING EAST /VIA FORWARD PROP CORFIDI VECTORS/
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH THE
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND LIMITED INHIBITION...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERNS WOULD BE IF THE RIDGE AND
WARM FRONT BUILD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SLIDE MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN OR THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF IT
BECOMING HUNG UP SOUTH OF THE AREA /ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTION HOLDS
THEM SOUTH/. WITH THE GROWING CONFIDENCE...WILL ADD A MENTION OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND IN BOTH THE HWO AND EHWO. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...AS
PWAT VALUES RISE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS AREA.
IT WILL BE PRETTY HUMID FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND /DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S/ AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES
NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...WOULD
HAVE TO BUMP TEMPS UP WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY REALLY GROWS HEADING INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...AS A LOT
DEPENDS ON THE WEEKEND WEATHER. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS
THAT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN PLACE FOR THAT PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY BRING AN END TO THE WARM/HUMID
WEATHER.
FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ON LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND IT TO AREAS OR EVEN DENSE FOG AS IT
NEARS. ALSO...ADDED A MENTION OF FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE
AREAS STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS START TO AFFECT THAT AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN
WINDS BELOW 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE POSSIBLE
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION FROM AFTER WEDNESDAY...WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
MCv over central NE, shortwave sliding southeast through IA and a
weak frontal boundary moving south through the CWA has muddied the
water for the next 12 hours. All models except the latest RAP are
unable to handle the meso feature in NE. However, the 12z NAM and
even the 06z GFS do develop afternoon convection along the frontal
boundary from northeast KS through west central MO. given the
proximity of the MCV moving into a more unstable airmass...the 12z
NAM forecasts afternoon MUCAPES of 2000+ J/kg along and south of this
front believe it prudent as a starting point to insert low chance PoPs
over the west central counties after 20Z. May need to continue chance
PoPs into the evening hours across the southern CWA but will assess
that potential later.
The more widely scattered convection across northern MO and southern
IA is expected to dissipate this morning as it slides across northern MO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
With upper ridging to the west and northwest flow overhead,
conditions today should be generally dry while temperatures stay
close to average. A weak shortwave in this flow pattern will drop out
of Minnesota into the Corn Belt through the day, clipping northeast
Missouri in the process. Moisture and instability will be
lacking over this area thanks to surface ridging building in from the
north. Therefore the only effects from this system should be a few
high clouds and possibly some daytime cumulus. Some short-range
models are also bringing precipitation out of western Nebraska into
northwest Missouri later this morning. This activity should have a
tough time surviving as far east as MO due to dry air in place, so
stayed with a dry forecast for all areas through the afternoon.
Upper ridge to the west will flatten slightly on Wednesday and shift
its axis westward into the Plains. This will likely allow a weak vort
max to drop east-southeast toward western MO Wednesday and Wednesday
evening with an attendant threat for thunderstorms, especially across
KS and western MO. An increase in moisture should provide weak to
moderate instability for this feature to work with, but weak winds
throughout the troposphere will be unsupportive of strong or severe
storms, at least through Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
Thursday should bring the last real chance for precipitation during
the long range forecast period as a shortwave trough drops through
northern Missouri. Strong shear and decent instability could promote
a stronger storm or two, but increasing CIN and a lack of surface
focus may make storms hard to come by, especially during the
afternoon hours.
After Thursday a ridge will build into the eastern Plains, keeping
most convection off to the north. Precipitation chances will be
limited to the propagation of ongoing storms into the region, which
is hinted at by a few model solutions late Thursday night through
Friday morning; otherwise, the end of the week through the weekend
should be mainly dry. Ridging will also allow temperatures to warm
into the 90s for Friday through Sunday, while southerly winds and
decent Gulf moisture draw upper 60s to 70s dewpoints into the
region. These conditions will result in heat indices nearing 100
degrees in the afternoon hours, and will need to be monitored for
possible heat headlines in the future.
Most models indicate a gradual flattening of the ridge from late
Sunday into Monday as deep low pressure lifts across the Canadian
border. This shift in the pattern may allow for slightly better
chances of precipitation going into early next week, as well as
slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
Scattered convection will move across northwest and west central MO
and eastern KS this afternoon in advance of a shortwave spawned by
last nights Central High Plains convection. A weak cold front
oriented northwest to southeast will stretch across northeast KS and
west central MO and help focus and steer these showers and
thunderstorms. Inspection of NAM Bufr soundings shows a relatively
dry sub-cloud region suggesting potential for strong and gusty winds
should any convection form. Will use VCTS in the forecast with the
likelihood of updating the forecast and inserting strong winds should
the convection become better organized. Activity should be out of the
terminals by early evening. Thereafter, VFR conditions will exist.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
300 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA PER
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE
CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG OVER SE MT. ELSEWHERE...CAPES WERE IN THE
700 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE...PRETTY VARIABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHEAR WAS GENERALLY WEAK...HOWEVER VALUES WERE 30 TO 35 KT OVER SE
MT...SO BEST CHANCES OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER
THE SE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA DUE TO THE CAPES AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. HAD POPS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MDT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
JET ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NW...CAUSING IT TO PROGRESS E WITH TIME. WILL HAVE INCREASING
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA STARTING ON WED...AS SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE REGION. UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT ON WED. BOTH THE GFS AND WRF HAD LARGE CAPES
2000-3000 J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WED AND WED EVENING...AS WELL AS INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE
AREA FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...DRY AIR OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT N INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
WED...KEEPING THE E DRY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE REGION FROM KBIL N AND W...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE OVER THE N. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST
OF THE AREA.
UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE OVER ID THU AND THU NIGHT. CAPES WILL BE VERY
LOW ON THU. HAD LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WITH FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WILL HAVE A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT AS 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE E. WED WILL BE HOT
WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +14 DEGREES C AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
PAC NW UPPER LOW WILL KICK SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION FRI/SAT...AND
ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIMILARLY WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. WITH CONFIDENCE HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS
THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ACTIVITY IN THE WEST SHOULD BE NON-
SEVERE THOUGH WITH LOW WET BULB TEMPS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. GFS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MAY SURGE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO OUR EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
EAST ON THESE DAYS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO
OUR EAST EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD EMERGE BY SUNDAY IN OUR WEST...WITH A
PERIOD OF DRY WX PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO MONDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT IN THE HANDLING OF THE PACIFIC FLOW
HERE. WILL ADVERTISE A DRY PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN SLIGHT
POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS WE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY BY THEN. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN BACK TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY DAYS 6/7.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONGER RIDGING
WITH NEAR 590DAM HEIGHTS BY WED/THU OF NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO
KEEP WATCH OF THIS TREND.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
NEAR THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KLVM AND KSHR AT
TIMES. VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS...AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ON WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
GUSTIER WINDS. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/089 052/077 052/072 052/069 051/078 054/082 056/082
22/T 22/T 33/T 34/T 41/B 12/T 22/T
LVM 050/084 043/072 041/069 042/067 046/079 046/082 049/081
33/T 23/T 33/T 34/T 40/B 02/T 22/T
HDN 059/091 053/078 052/074 050/072 050/078 052/082 052/083
21/U 22/T 32/T 34/T 41/B 12/T 22/T
MLS 061/096 058/081 055/076 056/076 055/080 056/083 057/083
21/N 22/T 44/T 34/T 43/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 061/095 054/081 055/076 054/075 053/079 054/084 055/084
31/N 22/T 44/T 34/T 42/T 12/T 22/T
BHK 057/090 057/080 054/076 055/074 054/076 054/080 057/082
31/N 22/T 36/T 54/T 43/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 054/090 048/078 050/073 048/073 047/076 049/081 050/082
31/U 22/T 32/T 23/T 31/B 12/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...AND CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES OVER CENTRAL NC AT
MID-AFTERNOON THANKS TO PEAKS OF SUN HEATING UP AN AIR MASS WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPSTAIRS...A VORT MAXIMUM
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO ROTATE EASTWARD WITH
ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE AIDING TO ENHANCE THE 925-850MB
FLOW WHICH IS ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE COLUMN. LATEST
SATELLITE TOTAL BLEND PRECIP WATER PRODUCT DEPICTS VALUES BETWEEN
1.8-2 INCHES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MEAGER...ENOUGH JUICE EXISTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION. CURRENT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40KT RANGE
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONVECTION FORMING INTO A
LINE AS IT MARCHES EAST-SE. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORM WITH WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. STILL
BELIEVE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
RAINFALL RATES 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF THE STORMS.
FORTUNATELY STEERING WINDS CLOSE TO 25KTS SO STORMS WITH THIS
MAGNITUDE OF RAIN SHOULD NOT SETTLE OVER ONE SPOT VERY LONG. BULK OF
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE 11Z HRRR SUGGEST THE
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN
21Z-00Z...AND INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN 23Z-02Z.
PLAN TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD THESE HIGHER POPS SEWD WITH TIME. WILL
INTRODUCE DECREASING POPS BY EARLY EVENING IN THE NW PIEDMONT...THEN
TREND POPS LOWER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BETWEEN 02Z-06Z.
OVERNIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD AND SHOULD LIE WSW-ENE
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN-SE COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. STILL MUGGY OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE FAR N-NW SECTIONS MAY
START TO FEEL A LITTLE LESS HUMID BY DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS MID 60S TO
NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
STRONGER S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE SHEAR AXIS APPROACHES OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND DUE TO RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NOT AS
ROBUST. EXPECT TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP...ONE OVER THE FAR SOUTH IN
VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY SFC FRONT...AND THE OTHER OVER THE
FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE SWD ADVANCING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. PLAN TO
CAP POPS NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT (NEAR SC BORDER) WITH A 1-IN-3
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN THE EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER MAY STILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE SHEAR AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTH. THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SE OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE
WILL AID TO DISSIPATE THE CLOUD COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT A FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMP FIELD WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE
AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 NORTH TO LOWER
80S SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH A SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGHER THURSDAY RELATIVE TO
FRIDAY...BETWEEN AN INCH AND 1.5 INCHES ON THE FORMER COMPARED TO A
DECREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH FRIDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND PARTICULARLY THE LATTER...FORECAST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND 850MB THURSDAY FOR AREAS OF CU TO FORM...MORE
LIKELY TOWARD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE 850MB MOISTURE IS
HIGHEST. K INDICES FALL FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...WITH K INDICES WELL INTO NEGATIVE
VALUES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AMPLE
OVERALL CIN AND GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WITH CONVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD
PRECLUDE THAT. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORNING GUSTS WITH INITIAL
MIXING THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS KTS IN THE MODESTLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF OF THE COAST AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL 925MB
WINDS ARE MAINLY AROUND 10KT. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...CLOSE TO OR ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 60 TO THE MID
60S...MINS POSSIBLY TEMPERED A LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY
SLIGHTLY GREATER UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
AROUND THE RIDGE...THERE COULD BE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR TWO
THAT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE...OR HAS SOME SUCCESS MOVING...INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MOISTURE OF THE MEAN AIR MASS...AND MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE...INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 70F BY MONDAY...CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT
SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE ESPECIALLY AT THE
SURFACE...AND COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
HAVE A GOOD CONSENSUS OF AT LEAST BEING WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TRANSLATING INTO COOLING ALOFT...AT LEAST SOME
QPF BY MUCH OF THE CURRENT LONG-TERM GUIDANCE...AND MEX MOS POPS
NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORCING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS...SEA
BREEZE...AND/OR WEAK MID-LEVEL PVA AT TIMES...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR
MASS. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES GRADUALLY RISE...WHICH...ALONG WITH MOS
GUIDANCE...WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS RISING TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. IF THE SURFACE DEW POINT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FORECAST
PRIMARILY DUE TO SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING...MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES COULD RISE TO AROUND 100 BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM TUESDAY...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL INTERACT
WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH
POCKETS OF IFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE TRIAD TERMINALS AROUND 10 PM...THE
KRDU/KRWI TERMINALS BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM...AND THE KFAY VICINITY
BETWEEN 3-5 AM. AHEAD THE BOUNDARY EXPECT IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BE NOTED BY SURFACE WINDS
VEERING FROM THE SW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH A STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BASES 3000-4000FT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND LINGER OVER CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS LEADING TO VFR PARAMETERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT JUNE PATTERN OF A BROAD THROUGH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION AND BE
REPLACED BY A SUMMERTIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD FROM
THE PLAINS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE IS ALONG THE TURNPIKE AND SRN BORDER.
THUS...EXPECT HIGHEST CHCS FOR SHRA TO BE THERE EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MORE CU ARE BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WHERE
HEATING HAS THUS FAR BEEN HAMPERED BY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER.
SO...CANNOT PULL ALL MENTIONS OF SHOWERS - ESP WITH THE RUC
INSISTING ON MAKING MORE/HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY/MID SUSQ BEFORE SUNSET. TALL CU OVER BFD WILL ALSO WARRANT
AT LEAST ISOLD POPS IN THE NRN HILLS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WELL. SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING WILL COME TO THE AREA FROM N-S
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS DO GO CALM IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SO A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE - EARLY IN BFD BEFORE
DEWPOINTS TANK...AND AROUND THE REST OF THE AREA LATER AT
NIGHT...ESP THOSE PLACES THAT DID GET WET TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LAST SHORTWAVE TO ENHANCE THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL RUN OVER THE
REGION AROUND SUNRISE...AND THEN THE HEIGHTS START TO RISE
STEADILY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND INTO PA TO REMOVE MOST CLOUD COVER AND ALMOST EVERY BIT OF
POPS. WILL JUST HANG ONTO A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE LAURELS/SC MTS WHERE ENOUGH MSTR AND ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES
MAY COMBINE TO POP OFF A SHRA OR TWO. TEMPS WILL BE A DEG OR TWO
LOWER WED THAN TUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO PA WED
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TO 588DM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SE ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA ON WED NIGHT...SETTING UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LINGERING IN THE 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA...BUT MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF I-80 WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 40S.
STARTING THU...LLVL S-SWLY RETURN FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH /DRIFTING
OFF THE EAST COAST/ WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL MSTR
THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR AN AFTN
POP-UP/AIRMASS TYPE TSTM ON FRI. OTHERWISE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS TEMPS CLIMB TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THU
AND BEGIN A STRING OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYS ON FRIDAY.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HEIGHTS PEAK. BIGGER SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS SLIDES IN FROM THE
WEST AS HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD...SO A SERIES OF VERY WARM AND
HUMID DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SAT INTO TUES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING QUITE MILD AS WELL. WITH STAGNANT AIR AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH...HELD ON TO 20-30 POPS MOST
AFTERNOONS - WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ISOLATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INITIATED STORMS.
PATTERN ALSO HAS A RING-OF-FIRE LOOK TO IT SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR MCS ACTIVITY/RIDGE ROLLERS SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NW...THOUGH
LATEST MODELS NOT QUITE AS BULLISH ON THAT. EC OVERALL PRODUCING
MORE CONVECTION THAN THE GFS...BUT GENERAL AREAS ARE SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT SHRA ALONG THE SRN BORDER MAY BE JOINED BY ISOLD/SCT SHRA OVER
THE BULK OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN. BUT FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE
ILL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME. RECENT RUC RUNS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SHRA
OVER THE CENTRAL COS...AND TALL CU PRESENT OVER BFD. WILL KEEP
VCSH IN MOST AIRFIELDS THROUGH 22-00Z. SRN TERMINALS MAY STILL
HAVE SOME SHRA NEARBY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT COVG WILL REMAIN
SPARSE ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION THE IN TAFS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT IN FOG -
ESP WHERE RAIN OCCURS. SO SOME MENTIONS OF FOG WILL BE IN THE
TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTROLS THE WX INTO THE WEEKEND. JUST A
VERY SLIGHT CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ON WED.
BUT 99PCT OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND VFR.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT-SUN...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT JUNE PATTERN OF A BROAD THROUGH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION AND BE
REPLACED BY A SUMMERTIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD FROM
THE PLAINS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE IS ALONG THE TURNPIKE AND SRN BORDER.
THUS...EXPECT HIGHEST CHCS FOR SHRA TO BE THERE EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MORE CU ARE BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WHERE
HEATING HAS THUS FAR BEEN HAMPERED BY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER.
SO...CANNOT PULL ALL MENTIONS OF SHOWERS - ESP WITH THE RUC
INSISTING ON MAKING MORE/HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY/MID SUSQ BEFORE SUNSET. TALL CU OVER BFD WILL ALSO WARRANT
AT LEAST ISOLD POPS IN THE NRN HILLS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WELL. SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING WILL COME TO THE AREA FROM N-S
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS DO GO CALM IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SO A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE - EARLY IN BFD BEFORE
DEWPOINTS TANK...AND AROUND THE REST OF THE AREA LATER AT
NIGHT...ESP THOSE PLACES THAT DID GET WET TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LAST SHORTWAVE TO ENHANCE THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL RUN OVER THE
REGION AROUND SUNRISE...AND THEN THE HEIGHTS START TO RISE
STEADILY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND INTO PA TO REMOVE MOST CLOUD COVER AND ALMOST EVERY BIT OF
POPS. WILL JUST HANG ONTO A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE LAURELS/SC MTS WHERE ENOUGH MSTR AND ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES
MAY COMBINE TO POP OFF A SHRA OR TWO. TEMPS WILL BE A DEG OR TWO
LOWER WED THAN TUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVG ACRS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE EWD WITH RISING HGTS
EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ERN CONUS. CONSENSUS OF MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO BUILD THE RIDGE TO 588+DM THRU THE
WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST TASTE OF SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY ARRIVING
ON SCHEDULE.
LLVL S-SWLY RETURN FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTING OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LLVL MSTR THRU THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR AN AFTN POP-UP/AIRMASS TYPE SHOWER
OR TSTM ON FRI.
ABOVE NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS WITH
THE GFS-BASED MOS GUID MORE BULLISH THAN THE EC MOS ON THE HEAT.
PATTERN ALSO HAS A RING-OF-FIRE LOOK TO IT SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR MCS ACTIVITY/RIDGE ROLLERS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT SHRA ALONG THE SRN BORDER MAY BE JOINED BY ISOLD/SCT SHRA OVER
THE BULK OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN. BUT FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE
ILL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME. RECENT RUC RUNS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SHRA
OVER THE CENTRAL COS...AND TALL CU PRESENT OVER BFD. WILL KEEP
VCSH IN MOST AIRFIELDS THROUGH 22-00Z. SRN TERMINALS MAY STILL
HAVE SOME SHRA NEARBY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT COVG WILL REMAIN
SPARSE ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION THE IN TAFS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT IN FOG -
ESP WHERE RAIN OCCURS. SO SOME MENTIONS OF FOG WILL BE IN THE
TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTROLS THE WX INTO THE WEEKEND. JUST A
VERY SLIGHT CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ON WED.
BUT 99PCT OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND VFR.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT-SUN...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
240 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue Tuesday
night. By Wednesday a wet and cool weather pattern will take hold
of the region. Showery and cool conditions will continue through
the week, with a drying and warming trend expected this weekend.
Wetter and cooler weather will return early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tomorrow...Offshore low pressure pushing up against
higher pressure inland has a moist and unstable flow in between.
This is being utilized by smaller mesoscale disturbances and other
triggers to generate both surface and forced elevated showers and
thunderstorms through this interval. HRRR model runs have been
utilized for the short term hours of tonight to time the breaks in
precipitation and allow for the weakening but not really
dissipating north to south oriented band of showers affecting
locations in the lowlands from near Moses Lake and up north to
Republic. Tonight a disturbances rotating around the periphery of
the incoming large scale low will fire off more showers and
thunderstorms and take them in a south to north trajectory with
storm motion near 30 mph or so through Eastern Washington and
North Idaho overnight and into Tomorrow. Number of GFS runs hint
at some of the later convection being highly organized and thus
of longer duration late tonight and into tomorrow which means
there should be a significant amount of rainfall. Thus the
forecast hints at some locations in the North Idaho Panhandle
receiving up to one and one half inches of rainfall in 24
hours...which should increase flow in area rivers and streams. In
addition to the significant rainfall and as is usually the case
gusty wind and small hail is possible near any of these
thunderstorms. /Pelatti
...PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING...
Wednesday through Friday: The biggest concern for the Wednesday
through Thursday time frame will be the amount of rain that will
fall over the Inland Northwest. A slow moving upper level low will
pivot through northeast Oregon into the Idaho Panhandle and stall
on Thursday into Friday. Deformation band precip (rain wrapping
around the low) should bring a prolonged period of moderate rain
to the Idaho Panhandle, western Montana and southern British
Columbia. We preferred the 00z/12z ECMWF blended the 15z SREF to
build our multi-day precipitation totals. The operational runs of
the NAM and GFS aren`t terribly different with their placement of
the upper low and other mass fields, but these operational models
do become noisy from time to time with convective feedback. The
ensemble SREF and coarser EC suffer from less feedback which will
hopefully lead to a better basin average precipitation forecast.
The highest precipitation totals from early Wednesday morning
through Friday will likely occur over the Idaho Panhandle, namely
Bonner, Boundary and Shoshone counties where as much as 2 to 2.5
inches of rain will be possible through Friday. Areas in far
northeast Washington around Metaline Falls, Newport, and Northport
could get up to 2 inches as well. Rainfall rates don`t appear to
be particularly heavy, but the ECMWF and SREF (which will be
conservative) suggest the heaviest rates will occur Wednesday
morning with as much as a half to three quarters of an inch in 6
hours within a localized band. Most areas should be able to handle
these precipitation rates. The 12z-18z NAM has almost double these
rain rates (up to 1.25 inches per 6 hours) which could cause some
problems on creeks and small streams.
Concern Area #1: The Idaho Panhandle and southeast British
Columbia. A Flood Watch may be necessary for Wednesday for
portions of the Idaho Panhandle for creeks and small streams.
Another concern will be the large amount of precipitation from
Wednesday through Friday over the Kootenai Basin in southeast BC,
NW Montana and far north Idaho. Rises are forecast on the Kootenai
at Bonners Ferry. The potential for more rain next week is not
particularly good news, but it is early to say whether rains next
week will be significant enough to generate run-off.
Concern Area #2: The burn scars in central Washington around
Wenatchee, Chelan and Entiat. Fortunately, the deformation band
with the upper low will be well east of the burn scar area on
Wednesday. There is a small chance on Thursday, that this band
will pivot into central Washington, but it will not likely
maintain precipitation intensity into Thursday. There will also
be a small chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday. The atmosphere
does not appear to be particularly unstable with a 500mb temp of
only -18C to -19C. There should also be a good deal of low
cloudiness Wednesday which should inhibit surface heating
throughout the day. All-in-all, the threat of flash flood appears
to be low over the burn scars through Friday. /GKoch
Friday Night thru Sunday Night... Lingering showers and cool
temperatures will continue over eastern sections of the CWA Friday
night as the persistent upper low slowly moves east from the
southern part of the Idaho Panhandle. Differences in timing
between the EC and GFS cast doubt on how fast the system will move
east on Saturday and while the Cascades and Basin will have mostly
clear skies and warming temperatures, showers may linger over the
Idaho Panhandle. By Saturday night and early Sunday all models
agree that the CWA will be in between systems and under a weak
short wave ridge. The EC then brings in the next system off the
Pacific by Sunday afternoon with an increasing threat for showers
over the Cascades. Precip is on the increase Sunday night as the
ridge moves quickly east and the flows becomes westerly. JL
Monday and Tuesday...It looks like another moist storm system will
be affecting the Inland Northwest next week, bringing increased
rain chances to many areas. There is decent model agreement
regarding this system, with only some slight timing differences.
We went ahead and bumped up precipitation chances, especially
along the Cascade crest. With what is going to fall over the next
couple of days, anything of significance rainfall wise may cause
some hydrology issues. This is definitely something to watch out
for. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Moist and unstable air-mass and disturbances passing
through it in a south to north trajectory will keep unsettled
weather such as showers and thunderstorms in the aviation area for
the next 24 hours. VFR should prevail during most of the interval
during non heavy rainfall but near more intense shower and
thunderstorm activity the rainfall could bring ceilings and
visibilities down to MVFR along with gusty wind and small hail.
/Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 54 45 55 44 61 / 80 100 80 80 50 60
Coeur d`Alene 52 54 46 54 42 60 / 90 100 100 90 50 60
Pullman 49 53 44 56 42 60 / 80 100 70 60 30 60
Lewiston 54 58 49 64 44 67 / 70 100 70 60 20 50
Colville 51 63 50 57 48 67 / 90 100 100 100 60 50
Sandpoint 50 56 46 53 45 60 / 100 100 100 100 60 60
Kellogg 50 51 44 51 39 57 / 100 100 100 100 50 60
Moses Lake 55 66 51 65 49 69 / 70 50 50 60 30 30
Wenatchee 56 66 52 64 51 68 / 40 40 50 60 40 30
Omak 53 66 51 64 50 69 / 60 80 70 80 60 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1048 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today. By
Wednesday a wet and cool weather pattern will take hold of the
region. Showery and cool conditions will continue through the
week, with a drying and warming trend possible by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to show a break in shower and thunderstorm
activity for remainder of morning for extreme Southeast Washington
which includes the Spokane and Coeur D` Alene area relying heavily
on the latest HRRR guidance which suggests such an occurrence
before forced convection redevelops later this afternoon and
evening and moves in via a south to north trajectory of approach
keeping the overnight forecast wet and unsettled. Otherwise
locations further west including the typically drier lowlands of
the Columbia Basin periphery remain wet as forced convection de-
intensifies during the day but does not totally go away and some
surface based convection develops over the mountains to the
north...thus a generally cluttered wet forecast continues.
/Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Moist and unstable air-mass and disturbances passing
through it in a south to north trajectory will keep unsettled
weather such as showers and thunderstorms in the aviation area for
the next 24 hours. VFR should prevail during most of the interval
during non heavy rainfall but near more intense shower and
thunderstorm activity the rainfall could bring ceilings and
visibilities down to MVFR along with gusty wind and small hail.
/Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 72 52 54 46 57 46 / 50 80 100 80 70 60
Coeur d`Alene 73 52 56 47 57 45 / 60 90 100 100 90 60
Pullman 74 49 55 44 58 43 / 40 80 100 70 50 60
Lewiston 80 54 61 50 66 49 / 40 70 100 70 50 30
Colville 76 51 63 49 60 46 / 70 90 100 100 80 70
Sandpoint 76 50 58 46 56 44 / 60 100 100 100 90 70
Kellogg 74 50 53 43 53 44 / 70 100 100 100 80 60
Moses Lake 75 55 67 51 65 47 / 30 50 60 40 30 20
Wenatchee 74 56 67 53 62 52 / 40 40 60 50 50 20
Omak 76 53 66 50 62 49 / 50 60 90 70 60 60
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS.
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY AIDING IN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS OUT WEST. A
PRETTY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE HERE AT
CHEYENNE. FURTHER EAST IN THE PANHANDLE...LOW TO MID 50 TDS ARE
BEING REPORTED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AROUND 600-1000 J/KG
AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AT ZERO. STILL CAPPED SOME OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES WITH ROUGHLY 50-75
J/KG...BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON.
THINKING A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY CONVECTION WISE...THOUGH COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THAT LITTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING BY 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWING
INDIVIDUAL CELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...THEN
CONGEALING INTO A LINE NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AFTER 00Z.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO COME TO AN END MID EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 03Z OR SO. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AS WELL...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY DRY AND WINDY DAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS SHOWING THESE WINDS CLIMBING TO NEAR
40KTS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GOOD MID LEVEL WARMING AS WELL
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +10C THIS AFTERNOON TO +16C
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LEESIDE TROUGH STILL HANGS OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL A GOOD BET OUT THAT WAY.
FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST
MOVES INLAND TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG
OVER OUR CWFA...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES COOL SOME...DOWN TO +10 TO
+12C. SO THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER WEDNESDAY BY A
FEW DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
REX BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN NOAM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE MEANDERING PACNW CLOSED LOW FILLS AND MOVES OUT
ONTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE DEPTH AT WHICH IT DOES SO WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND WILL CARRY RESIDUAL IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER.
ON FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SWING FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN ITS PLACEMENT NR THE ID/MT STATELINE BY EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SO HAVE CONFINED CONVECTIVE CHANCES THERE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SWING THROUGH MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS LLVL MOISTURE DEEPENS AND BACKS UP INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CAPE VALUES THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. SATURDAY LOOKS TO PROVIDE THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND BEGIN TO HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS WELL...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
SURFACING OF GUSTIER WINDS ALOFT.
H7 TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 13 AND 15C THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INCREASE TO 17C BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
EVEN SOME MID AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S OUT ON THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED FOR
AIRPORTS FROM KLAR EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. USING THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE...TRIED TO NARROW TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ONSET.
INITIALLY A FEW CELLS AROUND KLAR AND KCYS...BUT THEN FORMING A
LINE ONCE THE STORMS GET INTO THE PANHANDLE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT KLAR AND KCYS...THEN THE LINE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. DO NOT THINK
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. ZONES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO SEE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BEGINNING MID MORNING WEDNESDAY
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDIEST TIME PERIODS LOOK TO BE
LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OUT WEST WILL
FALL TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WITH THESE
STRONG WINDS. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WINDS WILL BE LESS WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. SINCE ALL ZONES ARE STILL REPORTING
FUELS AS NOT READY FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH...NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW OR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB