Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/13/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
815 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...WILL LET RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE AT 9 PM. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
.AVIATION...WELL DEFINED DENVER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WRN
SUBURBS. LATEST RAP KEEPS IT WEST OF DIA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM
MOVES IT SE OF DIA BY 12Z. WITH DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE MOVING IN
FM THE NE IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
NERN PLAINS AND WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE WHICH COULD AFFECT BJC AND
DIA BY 12Z DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CYCLONE IS. SMOKE PLUME FM FIRE
OVR BLACK FOREST AREA IS NOT AS DEFINED AS EARLIER BUT STILL COULD
SEE SOME LIMITED VISIBILTIES OF 5-6 MILES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
IN SOME SPOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...HAVE UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS...SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW. STILL SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VIRGA EXPECTED WITH VERY
DRY AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF THUNDER
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA...BUT MOISTURE SURGE FROM
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE AS DEWPOINTS EVEN
AS FAR EAST OF GOODLAND HAVE MIXED. WILL MENTION SOME SMOKE
SPREADING FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE NORTHWARD INTO THE DENVER METRO
WITH LATEST TRAJECTORY FORECASTS...DEVELOPING DENVER
CYCLONE...AND NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING BUT THEN BEGIN TO MIX AND SCOUR EASTWARD
ONCE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE/SPEED MAX MOVING TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING/GUSTY WINDS IN/NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR. BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONGER AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS AS WE MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN
CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG.
LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING DURING THE EVENING WITH MID LEVEL
QG ASCENT SLIDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES EAST WITH THE WAVE...STILL ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS DURING THE EVENING. MAIN THREAT
WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING AS RAINFALL WILL BE
LIMITED. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE
THERE IS ALSO SOME CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
STORMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. AIRMASS STILL A BIT SUBSIDENT. BUT DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER IN AREA OF
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON SATURDAY...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY SURGE
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY COOLER
WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ONLY INDICATE A WEAK CAP...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR. STILL SOME MOISTURE
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...MAINLY IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
PROVIDE LOCAL UPSLOPE. TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. AIRMASS LOOKS DRIER AND WARMER WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG FOOTHILLS. GFS AND
ECMWF HINT AT A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH SMOKE FROM BLACK FOREST FIRE
PUSHING NORTHWARD...ALREADY REACHING SOUTHEAST SIDE OF TOWN AND
TRAJECTORIES DUE TO WEAK CYCLONE AND DEVELOPING INVERSIONS
OVERNIGHT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME VSBY RESTRICTION
DOWN TO 3-5SM...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOMEWHAT LOWER VSBY OF 1-3SM IN
THICKER SMOKE AREAS. WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...STILL SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
FRONT RANGE WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THIS EVENING
IF AIRMASS WARMS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES ON THE PLAINS RESULTING IN
A DEEP DRY ADIABATIC SUB-CLOUD LAYER. CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS BUT ONLY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. EVEN THEN
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE 10-20 PERCENT.
FIRE WEATHER...EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNINGS TO COVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS...VERY LOW
RH...AND POSSIBLE SPOTTING FROM THE BLACK FOREST FIRE. ALSO ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...AND PALMER
DIVIDE AREA FOR GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUED LOW RH...POSSIBLE DRY
LIGHTNING...AND MORE CRITICAL FUEL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH
CONTINUATION OF HEAT AND DRYNESS.
HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ241.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ211-213-
214-216-241.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST MAY IMPACT OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH MORE RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FA AND MOVING EASTWARD...AND ACCORDING TO OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...THEY SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF ALBANY...AS MODELS
SHOWING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AROUND 400-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE
DEVELOPING. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW
BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THIS IS WHERE
THERE WILL BE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING THUNDER TODAY.
DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS ANY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE PONDING OR
MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. FLOOD WATCH FOR
BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE STEADY RAIN
HAS ENDED AND FORECASTS HAVE ALL RIVER POINTS REMAINING WITHIN
THEIR BANKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN AGAIN BY CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
60S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE
AGAIN A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG BACK INTO
EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. THE THREAT FOR DOWNPOURS/THUNDER WILL
DIMINISH...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BREEZE REMAINING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECTING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...AS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM INTO
THE 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A WET DAY FOR THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SETUP LOOKS MORE LIKE A COOL-SEASON
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS OUR AREA WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
DEEPENING CYCLONE. STRONG F-GEN AND QG FORCING COULD RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL. TIMING...EXACT TRACK AND
POSITION...AS WELL AS QPF ARE HIGHLY IN QUESTION THOUGH DUE TO THE
CHAOTIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. STILL...THE MODEL TRENDS
CANNOT BE IGNORED AND WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY. WILL
START MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO DUE TO ALREADY
HIGH RIVER LEVELS AND SATURATED GROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE SYSTEM EXITS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A SLIGHT BIT MORE STEEP THAN
USUAL AS WELL. ACKNOWLEDGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY...ENDING BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLER IN THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH POTENTIALLY QUITE A BIT OF SUN. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GET CLEARER WITH
TIME. FOR NOW...INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND ON MONDAY MUCH OF THE
SAME...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS USUAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
A LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
FLYING CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY MVFR/IFR
CURRENTLY FOR LOW STRATUS AND MIST...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY THE LATE AFTN...THE THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE GONE /EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE A
SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT. ALSO...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE WEST AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING WHICH SHOULD HELP RAISE CIGS...ESP FOR
KALB/KPOU. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THESE SITES DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF MAY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME STUBBORN
LOW CIGS...BUT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY...ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT-
BKN STRATOCU AR 3500-5000 FT. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS...WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
WED PM...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU...MVFR/IFR. -RA LIKELY.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR QUITE A WHILE...AS WE
ARE IN THE MIDST OF A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THEN A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STEADIER RAIN IN THE PROCESS OF TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY LIGHT INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HOUSATONIC AND EASTERN CATSKILL BASINS...WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING MAIN STEM RIVERS TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THEREFORE
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES.
DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS LOCALIZED MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DOWNPOURS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS RIVER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO DRY OUT BEFORE THEN.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1225 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST MAY IMPACT OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH MORE RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FA AND MOVING EASTWARD...AND ACCORDING TO OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...THEY SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF ALBANY...AS MODELS
SHOWING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AROUND 400-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE
DEVELOPING. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW
BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THIS IS WHERE
THERE WILL BE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING THUNDER TODAY.
DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS ANY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE PONDING OR
MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. FLOOD WATCH FOR
BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE STEADY RAIN
HAS ENDED AND FORECASTS HAVE ALL RIVER POINTS REMAINING WITHIN
THEIR BANKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN AGAIN BY CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
60S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE
AGAIN A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG BACK INTO
EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. THE THREAT FOR DOWNPOURS/THUNDER WILL
DIMINISH...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BREEZE REMAINING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECTING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...AS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM INTO
THE 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A WET DAY FOR THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SETUP LOOKS MORE LIKE A COOL-SEASON
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS OUR AREA WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
DEEPENING CYCLONE. STRONG F-GEN AND QG FORCING COULD RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL. TIMING...EXACT TRACK AND
POSITION...AS WELL AS QPF ARE HIGHLY IN QUESTION THOUGH DUE TO THE
CHAOTIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. STILL...THE MODEL TRENDS
CANNOT BE IGNORED AND WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY. WILL
START MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO DUE TO ALREADY
HIGH RIVER LEVELS AND SATURATED GROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE SYSTEM EXITS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A SLIGHT BIT MORE STEEP THAN
USUAL AS WELL. ACKNOWLEDGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY...ENDING BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLER IN THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH POTENTIALLY QUITE A BIT OF SUN. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GET CLEARER WITH
TIME. FOR NOW...INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND ON MONDAY MUCH OF THE
SAME...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS USUAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. A STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD IS LIFTING NORTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM KALB/KPSF/KPOU. SOME
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KGFL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS
ARE VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT THE SITES. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z-15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR AS THE
LOWER CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVES OUT AND DECREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS MAY RISE BACK TO
MVFR/LOW VFR LEVELS...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE SYSTEM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUNDER HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE
TERMINALS YET...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED WITH LATER TAF
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE SITES BY 00Z-02Z BUT VCSH INCLUDED AT KGFL...KALB
AND KPSF THROUGH 06Z SINCE GUIDANCE NOT CLEAR ON EXACT TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF THE RAIN. AFTER 06Z...LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. KGFL
AND KPSF COULD TREND TOWARD IFR AFTER 06Z...WHILE KALB AND KPOU
SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE MVFR RANGE.
THE SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT TO CALM VALUES TO E/SE WINDS AT
5-10 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR AROUND 10 KT
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU...MVFR/IFR. -RA LIKELY.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR QUITE A WHILE...AS WE
ARE IN THE MIDST OF A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THEN A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STEADIER RAIN IN THE PROCESS OF TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY LIGHT INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HOUSATONIC AND EASTERN CATSKILL BASINS...WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING MAIN STEM RIVERS TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THEREFORE
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES.
DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS LOCALIZED MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DOWNPOURS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS RIVER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO DRY OUT BEFORE THEN.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST MAY IMPACT OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT...THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AT THE CURRENT TIME. AS A RESULT...THE
STEADY RAINFALL HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD...AND ACCORDING TO OUR
LOCAL HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...THEY SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF ALBANY...AS MODELS
SHOWING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AROUND 400-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE
DEVELOPING. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW
BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THIS IS WHERE
THERE WILL BE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING THUNDER TODAY.
DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS ANY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE PONDING OR
MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. FLOOD WATCH FOR
BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE STEADY RAIN
HAS ENDED AND FORECASTS HAVE ALL RIVER POINTS REMAINING WITHIN
THEIR BANKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN AGAIN BY CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
60S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE
AGAIN A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG BACK INTO
EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. THE THREAT FOR DOWNPOURS/THUNDER WILL
DIMINISH...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BREEZE REMAINING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECTING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...AS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM INTO
THE 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A WET DAY FOR THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SETUP LOOKS MORE LIKE A COOL-SEASON
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS OUR AREA WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
DEEPENING CYCLONE. STRONG F-GEN AND QG FORCING COULD RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL. TIMING...EXACT TRACK AND
POSITION...AS WELL AS QPF ARE HIGHLY IN QUESTION THOUGH DUE TO THE
CHAOTIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. STILL...THE MODEL TRENDS
CANNOT BE IGNORED AND WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY. WILL
START MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO DUE TO ALREADY
HIGH RIVER LEVELS AND SATURATED GROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE SYSTEM EXITS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A SLIGHT BIT MORE STEEP THAN
USUAL AS WELL. ACKNOWLEDGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY...ENDING BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLER IN THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH POTENTIALLY QUITE A BIT OF SUN. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GET CLEARER WITH
TIME. FOR NOW...INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND ON MONDAY MUCH OF THE
SAME...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS USUAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. A STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD IS LIFTING NORTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM KALB/KPSF/KPOU. SOME
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KGFL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS
ARE VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT THE SITES. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z-15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR AS THE
LOWER CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVES OUT AND DECREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS MAY RISE BACK TO
MVFR/LOW VFR LEVELS...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE SYSTEM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUNDER HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE
TERMINALS YET...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED WITH LATER TAF
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE SITES BY 00Z-02Z BUT VCSH INCLUDED AT KGFL...KALB
AND KPSF THROUGH 06Z SINCE GUIDANCE NOT CLEAR ON EXACT TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF THE RAIN. AFTER 06Z...LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. KGFL
AND KPSF COULD TREND TOWARD IFR AFTER 06Z...WHILE KALB AND KPOU
SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE MVFR RANGE.
THE SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT TO CALM VALUES TO E/SE WINDS AT
5-10 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR AROUND 10 KT
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU...MVFR/IFR. -RA LIKELY.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR QUITE A WHILE...AS WE
ARE IN THE MIDST OF A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THEN A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STEADIER RAIN IN THE PROCESS OF TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY LIGHT INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HOUSATONIC AND EASTERN CATSKILL BASINS...WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING MAIN STEM RIVERS TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THEREFORE
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES.
DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS LOCALIZED MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DOWNPOURS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS RIVER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO DRY OUT BEFORE THEN.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
724 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. A COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
BULK OF EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT IS
LIFTING INTO NH AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CURRENT OBS
SUGGEST THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE S COAST FROM COASTAL CT
INTO SE MA. NOT EXPECTING A VERY RAPID NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS
FRONT DUE TO BOTH PARALLEL STEERING FLOW AND A LACK OF DIURNAL
HEATING GIVEN THE FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND THE REGION.
AM NOTING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS PARTICULARLY IN CT AND SW MASS
WHICH WILL LIKELY EXPAND E SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE MORE RAPIDLY HEAR AND ALLOW
DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
FOCUS FOR LIFT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM IN NY AND SHIFT INTO CT/RI AND SE MASS IN PARTICULAR.
ADJUST POPS AND SKIES TOWARD LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING
THE PRECIP WELL THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS SNE AND HAVE NOTED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVIER
SHOWERS GENERALLY PRODUCING 0.25-0.50"/HR RATES BUT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1"/HR IN ANY TSTMS. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH SW CT AND EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TAPER
OFF FROM SW TO NE THROUGH 12Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING A FEW HOURS
LATER ACROSS N MA AND S NH. WE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH IN CT AS
THE RAIN IS MOVING OUT...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO THE WATCH ELSEWHERE
AS HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE WE EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH
WITH DECENT MID LEVEL COOLING AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL FROM -8 TO 12C.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION BUT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF CT/RI AND
SE MA. GFS/NAM GENERATING SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CT AND RI BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WILL
DEVELOP WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY EVEN FURTHER. MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS STILL AROUND 1.5" BUT LOW PROB OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS CT/RI AND POSSIBLY SE MA. WE
DO HAVE ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR BUT LACK OF SFC INSTABILITY DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LIMITING
FACTORS.
TEMP FORECAST WILL BE A TOUGH ONE AS WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS SNE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR 70S TO THE S. SO BUST POTENTIAL IS LARGE. WE
USED THE NAM DEPICTION OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH HAS IT STALL JUST S
OF THE MASS PIKE NEAR MA/CT/RI BORDER. SO WE HAVE 70S ACROSS CT/RI
AND PORTIONS OF SE MA...COOLING TO THE 60S TO THE N AND UPPER 50S
S NH AND NE MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE
EVENING WITH EVENING SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS DIMINISHING. BUT A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING
IN FROM THE N OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. WE HAVE HIGHEST
POPS CONFINED TO THE N.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COASTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
* COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY WARMUP FOR WEEKEND.
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
11/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEREFORE...HAVE
MODERATE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN OVERALL TRENDS. THE PATTERN IS MARKED
BY TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW...A DECENT RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS...AND A GRADUALLY DIGGING AND DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE E
COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE HERE...AND COOL UPPER
LVL CUTOFF DIVING S FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THROUGH FRI...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WX TO CONTINUE INTO FRI SAVE FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATE
WED INTO EARLY THU. THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WX DETAILS ARE ON EXACTLY
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRES WHICH WILL PASS S OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND TIMING
OF PRECIP ONSET AND ENDING. GIVEN THERE ARE ONLY SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/PERSISTENCE FOR THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRI. WILL FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE /NOW WET/ GFS IS TRYING TO PUSH A
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AS IT SLIDES E.
DETAILS...
WED INTO WED NIGHT...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WED
AS LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. AM STILL NOTING A BIT OF
REMNANT MOISTURE AND SLIGHT LIFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
-SHRA DURING THE DAY WED...BUT THESE SHOULD END AND GIVE WAY TO
DRY WX BY LATE DAY AND WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE OR NORMAL GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST.
THU AND THU NIGHT...
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE E FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WHICH GIVEN STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE W-E SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND THE S COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE DAY THU AND THU NIGHT. UPPER LVL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN WITH TIME AS CUTOFF LOW SLIDES S FROM CANADA SO
EXPECT THAT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN WITH TIME AS WELL
ESPECIALLY ONCE OUT OVER THE WATER. LOW AND MID LVL MASS FIELDS
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEFORMATION AND MID-LOW LVL FRONTOGENESIS
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AS THIS LOW SLIDES AND WITH PWAT VALUES OF
1.0-1.5 INCHES SO SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THU NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME
FLOODING GIVEN THE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE LAST WEEK AND
EARLY THIS WEEK. ONE OTHER THREAT WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON LLJ STRENGTH SOMEWHAT
WITH THIS UPDATE. WINDS ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY FOR S COASTAL AND
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
FRI...
INITIAL LOW PRES SLIDES E OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING WITH A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND. STILL HAVE MOISTURE IN THE
SOUNDING WITH THIS FROPA AND LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AROUND 6C/KM. SO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MAY LINGER
WITH THIS FRONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE WEEKEND INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AS THE WEAKENING RIDGE FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES OVER THE E SEABOARD. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
TO THE N...NOT EXPECTING THIS RIDGE TO BE QUITE AS STRONG...BUT IT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WX FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
STARTING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE MODERATING BY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD IFR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...HOLDING ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST COAST UNDER E FLOW. AREAS IN CT/RI/SE MA MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS TO VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER AREAS LIFT CLOSE TO
/IF NOT INTO/ MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
N. CT/RI/SE MA MAY ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT UNTIL EARLY MORNING
AS FOG DEVELOPS THANKS TO WET SFCS AND WEAK FLOW INITIALLY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR LINGERS MUCH OF
THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY SEE BRIEF LIFT TO MVFR ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS ARE ALLOWED TO SHIFT MORE TO THE N-NW THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
POCKETS OF MVFR. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS GUST 20-25 KT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN A PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE DAY THU INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT BRINGS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DURING FRI AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF SW GUSTS TO 25 KT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE S COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE MORNING AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. ACROSS THE NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...EAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE UNDERCUT
WNAWAVE GUIDANCE BUT STILL EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT OVER THE
S COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WED AND WED NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO QUIET BOATING WEATHER
BY LATE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BE BELOW CRITERIA
AT THE START. APPROACHING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SEAS AND
WINDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY GALES ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PASSES OVER THE
SOUTHER WATERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH END SCA.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SCA SEAS AS WINDS DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WE KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH GOING AS THERE IS STILL SOME HEAVY RAIN
TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WAS DROPPED FOR CT WHERE THE
RAIN IS MOVING OUT.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT SOME SMALLER STREAMS
ARE ALSO VULNERABLE TO FLOOD...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN RI AND SE MA
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SO FAR WITH AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES.
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI...
WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SW RI MAINLY FOR THE PAWCATUCK
RIVER WHICH WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
BASED ON LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE MINOR FLOODING MAY ALSO AFFECT
FOLLOWING RIVERS...
* ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD MA
* SUDBURY RIVER AT SAXONVILLE/FRAMINGHAM MA
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PA ATTM. A BAND
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PA AND
ACROSS OUR AREA (MOSTLY NRN 2/3RDS) THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE TRENDS WELL. THE POPS HAVE BEEN
HELD AT THE CHC LEVEL AS THE PREVIOUS FCST HAD THEM. OVERALL QPF
WILL NOT BE GREAT SINCE THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MODEST MOTION TO
THEM. QPF OF .10 OR .20 POSSIBLE.
I HAVE NOT CHANGED TEMP/DEW POINTS MUCH WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE SOUTH. COOLER ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE 70 TO 75. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SW AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD MAKE FOR A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING OUR REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
THURSDAY`S SYSTEM MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THAT TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THERE WED
NIGHT AND THEN A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG IT
THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER VERY WET
SCENARIO FOR THU/THU NIGHT, SO WE HAVE MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED FLOODING WITH RIVERS
AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH.
DECREASING POPS FOR FRI WITH ONLY A CHC FOR A SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU/FRI WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S (SOUTH) AND MID TO UPPER 50S (NORTH).
A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTLES ACROSS OUR AREA AND REMAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY. WE WILL WRITE A DRY FCST FOR NOW...AND HOLD OFF
THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A
BIT THIS WEEKEND AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO THE VFR CATEGORY DURING THE MORNING
AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THERE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PASS OVERHEAD AROUND
MIDDAY. IT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND THE TIMING IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT, NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THIS
EVENING...THE WIND SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND DIMINISH. WE
SHOULD LOSE THE WIND GUSTS TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING
IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME FOG.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THRU FRI...MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOSTLY VFR. FOG POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN AROUND 5 FEET THIS
MORNING. AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS, THE WAVE
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
UNTIL 500 PM. HOWEVER, WE WILL SHORTEN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE BY FOUR HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE, ENDING IT AT 100 PM.
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND BRING LOW-END
SCA WINDS/SEAS TO THE OCEAN AREAS LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SCA
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER DEL BAY TOO.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY IS ON THE CUSP BETWEEN LOW AND
MODERATE. THE WIND SHOULD BE A LITTLE WEST OF SOUTH TODAY,
LIMITING THE RISK. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE OFF THE COAST. THE MARGINALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
MAY LEAD TO A MODERATE RISK IN SPOTS. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ERRED
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND WE HAVE ISSUED A MODERATE RISK FOR
TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL - JUNE
PHL 10.06 1938 AS OF 1 AM 6.79 RANKED 10TH
ILG 9.90 2003 AS OF 1 AM 7.13 RANKED 7TH
ACY 8.45 1920 AS OF 1 AM 4.07 NOT TOP 10
THURSDAY JUNE 13 DAILY RECORD RAINFALL
ACY 1.29 1953
PHL 2.21 1982
ILG 2.41 1982
ABE 2.93 1942
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...IOVINO/O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...213PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PA ATTM. A BAND
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PA AND
ACROSS OUR AREA (MOSTLY NRN 2/3RDS) THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE TRENDS WELL. THE POPS HAVE BEEN
HELD AT THE CHC LEVEL AS THE PREVIOUS FCST HAD THEM. OVERALL QPF
WILL NOT BE GREAT SINCE THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MODEST MOTION TO
THEM. QPF OF .10 OR .20 POSSIBLE.
I HAVE NOT CHANGED TEMP/DEW POINTS MUCH WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE SOUTH. COOLER ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE 70 TO 75. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SW AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD MAKE FOR A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING OUR REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
THURSDAY`S SYSTEM MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THAT TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THERE WED
NIGHT AND THEN A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG IT
THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER VERY WET
SCENARIO FOR THU/THU NIGHT, SO WE HAVE MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED FLOODING WITH RIVERS
AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH.
DECREASING POPS FOR FRI WITH ONLY A CHC FOR A SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU/FRI WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S (SOUTH) AND MID TO UPPER 50S (NORTH).
A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTLES ACROSS OUR AREA AND REMAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY. WE WILL WRITE A DRY FCST FOR NOW...AND HOLD OFF
THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A
BIT THIS WEEKEND AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO THE VFR CATEGORY DURING THE MORNING
AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THERE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PASS OVERHEAD AROUND
MIDDAY. IT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND THE TIMING IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT, NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THIS
EVENING...THE WIND SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND DIMINISH. WE
SHOULD LOSE THE WIND GUSTS TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING
IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME FOG.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THRU FRI...MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOSTLY VFR. FOG POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN AROUND 5 FEET THIS
MORNING. AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS, THE WAVE
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
UNTIL 500 PM. HOWEVER, WE WILL SHORTEN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE BY FOUR HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE, ENDING IT AT 100 PM.
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND BRING LOW-END
SCA WINDS/SEAS TO THE OCEAN AREAS LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SCA
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER DEL BAY TOO.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY IS ON THE CUSP BETWEEN LOW AND
MODERATE. THE WIND SHOULD BE A LITTLE WEST OF SOUTH TODAY,
LIMITING THE RISK. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE OFF THE COAST. THE MARGINALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
MAY LEAD TO A MODERATE RISK IN SPOTS. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ERRED
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND WE HAVE ISSUED A MODERATE RISK FOR
TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ454-
455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...IOVINO/O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THIS HAS ENHANCED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THIS CLUSTER HAS INCHED ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE COAST. AS DIURNAL HEATING HAS SET UP, NEW CONVECTION
IS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT
OVER THE WATER. THE HRRR HAS CAPTURED THIS WELL SHOWING GOOD
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE COASTAL COLLIER AREA JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET. THE GRIDS HAVE THIS DEPICTED SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A TAD BIT OF COOLING AT
500 MB AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ADDITIONAL COOLING THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADDED A SMALL
WIND THREAT TO THE HWO MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE
MARINE ZONES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO CHANGES THERE ARE
PLANNED.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO A
MID-LAT UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT CELL CENTERED BETWEEN
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. MID/UPPER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TUTT CELL CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS EAST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE WESTWARD PROGRESS
TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA WAS EVIDENT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WAS ANALYZED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS TO
THE SE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND GENERALLY
INDICATES WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TODAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE (PWAT ~1.9") AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR MIA SHOW NEAR CALM WIND PROFILES UP TO 5KFT WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS
TODAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROVIDED THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM AROUND FORT
LAUDERDALE TO NORTH MIAMI BEACH PROVIDED THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...WHICH WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS LOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FALLING
UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE WITH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH...WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WEAK FLOW COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-WEEKEND)...
THE MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SETTING UP JUST
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ALONG WITH SOME
DRIER NW MID/UPPER FLOW SPREADING OVER THE STATE. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVERHEAD OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROUGH SAGS SOUTH OVER
THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WITH
MAINLY ISLTD/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION...
VERY SIMILAR MESOSCALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
YESTERDAY. EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WEAKER THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GULF BREEZE TO SURGE FURTHER INLAND.
THEREFORE BELIEVE MOST CONVECTION SHOULD STAY INLAND BUT DID KEEP
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ALSO...COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT ANY TAF SITE
BUT LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
MARINE...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS
CONTINUING.
FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE
RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 88 75 / 30 20 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 79 88 77 / 40 30 40 30
MIAMI 88 77 89 76 / 50 40 40 30
NAPLES 90 75 88 75 / 40 20 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
151 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS BUT NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES MADE.
LATE THIS MORNING...LINGERING STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT AND
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. UPSTREAM SHOWERS OVER
THE UPSTATE AND MIDLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. TODAY...THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE
TAIL END OF UPSTREAM CHANNELED VORT ENERGY EXTENDING OUT OF THE
SHARP TROUGH THAT STRETCHES TO THE NORTH. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE 12Z CHS RAOB BEARS THIS OUT WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED PWAT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND NOTABLE
DRYING FROM 850 MB UP. WE WILL ALSO SEE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH CURRENTLY LINES UP WELL WITH THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT. WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON...HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE 3000-3500 J/KG
OF CAPE. IN FACT LOOKING AT RAP SOUNDINGS...THE NEAR STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MARKED BY HIGH DCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
1200-1400 J/KG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
REGION. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPPING EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE BY
MID AFTERNOON. SO THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED
AT BEST...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES. I HAVE
KEPT THE POP TREND BASICALLY THE SAME...OTHER THAN TO EXPAND THE
CHANCE POP REGION TO INCLUDE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. THE HWO MENTION
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS STILL ON TRACK...THOUGH I WILL ADD A
MENTION OF POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVENING CONVECTION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
MOVING INTO OR POSSIBLY THROUGH THE GEORGIA I-16 CORRIDOR. MODELS
ARE 50/50 ON WHETHER ANY CONVECTION MAKES IT TO THE ALTAMAHA BUT
IF IT DOES IT MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE UNTIL MID EVENING AND
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE TONIGHT...MAINLY
DRY WITH A VERY LOW END LINGERING RISK OF CONVECTION TO THE S OF
I-16 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY....CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND DRYER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS AS DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BEHIND A FRONT SHIFTING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A DRY
DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
SO FAR THIS YEAR...WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LVL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS DEW POINTS REACH THE LOW/MID 70S WHILE
STRONG SFC AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING LEAD TO SFC TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OF 95 DEGREES
AT BOTH CHS AND SAV AIRPORTS SHOULD CONVECTION OR CLOUD COVER HOLD
OFF UNTIL EVENING HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT AND H5
SHORTWAVE. SHOULD CONVECTION TRIGGER BEFORE NIGHTFALL...SBCAPES
BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR -6C...MID LVL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C...AND 25-30 KT LOW LVL FLOW SUGGESTS
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER SC ZONES AFTER SUNSET.
FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH GUIDANCE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTING OVERALL
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN QUIET OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE.
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER SATURDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN THIS
PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES ARE AT KCHS...WHERE A
VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME PERIOD. WILL AMEND BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AS NEEDED.
EXTENDED AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SW SURGING GENERALLY LESS THAN MODEL EXPECTATIONS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DISTURBING WIND FIELDS
BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AT BUOY 41004 NEARING DAYBREAK.
THROUGH TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL AVERAGE 15 KT WITH NOCTURNAL SURGING
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 3 TO 5 FT OFFSHORE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY THEN APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 2-5 FT...HIGHEST
OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DURING FROPA. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN IMPROVE
AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
RIP CURRENTS...WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THINGS INCLUDING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A WEAK
ASTRONOMICAL FACTOR.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1058 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNING...LINGERING STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT AND
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. UPSTREAM SHOWERS OVER
THE UPSTATE AND MIDLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. TODAY...THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE
TAIL END OF UPSTREAM CHANNELED VORT ENERGY EXTENDING OUT OF THE
SHARP TROUGH THAT STRETCHES TO THE NORTH. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE 12Z CHS RAOB BEARS THIS OUT WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED PWAT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND NOTABLE
DRYING FROM 850 MB UP. WE WILL ALSO SEE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH CURRENTLY LINES UP WELL WITH THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT. WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON...HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE 3000-3500 J/KG
OF CAPE. IN FACT LOOKING AT RAP SOUNDINGS...THE NEAR STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MARKED BY HIGH DCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
1200-1400 J/KG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
REGION. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPPING EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE BY
MID AFTERNOON. SO THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED
AT BEST...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES. I HAVE
KEPT THE POP TREND BASICALLY THE SAME...OTHER THAN TO EXPAND THE
CHANCE POP REGION TO INCLUDE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. THE HWO MENTION
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS STILL ON TRACK...THOUGH I WILL ADD A
MENTION OF POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVENING CONVECTION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
MOVING INTO OR POSSIBLY THROUGH THE GEORGIA I-16 CORRIDOR. MODELS
ARE 50/50 ON WHETHER ANY CONVECTION MAKES IT TO THE ALTAMAHA BUT
IF IT DOES IT MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE UNTIL MID EVENING AND
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE TONIGHT...MAINLY
DRY WITH A VERY LOW END LINGERING RISK OF CONVECTION TO THE S OF
I-16 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY....CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND DRYER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS AS DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BEHIND A FRONT SHIFTING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A DRY
DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
SO FAR THIS YEAR...WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LVL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS DEW POINTS REACH THE LOW/MID 70S WHILE
STRONG SFC AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING LEAD TO SFC TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OF 95 DEGREES
AT BOTH CHS AND SAV AIRPORTS SHOULD CONVECTION OR CLOUD COVER HOLD
OFF UNTIL EVENING HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT AND H5
SHORTWAVE. SHOULD CONVECTION TRIGGER BEFORE NIGHTFALL...SBCAPES
BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR -6C...MID LVL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C...AND 25-30 KT LOW LVL FLOW SUGGESTS
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER SC ZONES AFTER SUNSET.
FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH GUIDANCE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTING OVERALL
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN QUIET OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE.
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER SATURDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WED. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERALL POTENTIAL PRECLUDES ANY THUNDER/CB MENTIONS IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SW SURGING GENERALLY LESS THAN MODEL EXPECTATIONS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DISTURBING WIND FIELDS
BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AT BUOY 41004 NEARING DAYBREAK.
THROUGH TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL AVERAGE 15 KT WITH NOCTURNAL SURGING
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 3 TO 5 FT OFFSHORE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY THEN APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 2-5 FT...HIGHEST
OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DURING FROPA. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN IMPROVE
AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
RIP CURRENTS...WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THINGS INCLUDING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A WEAK
ASTRONOMICAL FACTOR.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS CAUSING SHOWERS AS IT MOVES
TO THE EAST. IT IS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CAE CWA
AND SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
LIGHTNING DETECTION IS PICKING UP A LITTLE LIGHTNING...SO INCLUDED
A 60 PERCENT AREA MOVING EAST MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CAE. PUT
SHOWERS IN GRIDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.
OTHERWISE TODAY...MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EARLY WITH A
WEAK IMPULSE FOLLOWING BEHIND IT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
A NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO DRAG A SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1
INCH NORTH TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH...AND K INDEX VALUES FALLING INTO
THE 20S. MODELS INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITIES
DEVELOPING... HE STRONGEST INSTABILITIES ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR
THE CSRA/SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LIMITED BY DRIER AIR AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING...BUT
WHAT DOES FORM COULD BE SEVERE BASED ON DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SOME ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR EXPECTED AS
WELL. DRIER AIR AND MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS
REGION NEAR THE CSRA IN A SEE TEXT. OTHERWISE...LESS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO WENT LOWER 90S FOR
TUESDAY. DECIDED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO 3-4 HOURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS 22-23 PERCENT SOUTHERN PART INCLUDING
CSRA. 16-18 PERCENT POPS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRYING OCCURRING. AGAIN... WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
GIVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY...EXPECT THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS JUNE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER SHOULD TAKE HOLD FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING A BIT TO AROUND 90
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT MODIFY TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE UPSTATE SC...DRIFTING SE. LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE AND DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS OUR NORTHERN FA...SO THE
ACTIVITY MAY NOT REACH OUR TERMINALS. HOWEVER...RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST
SOME SHRA POSSIBLE...SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MVFR TO
IFR CIGS. AFTER MORNING RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING
THE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPCTED TODAY. DRIER AIR AND SOME MID
LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANYTHING THAT DOES
FORM COULD BE SEVERE DUE TO EXPECTED STRONG INSTABILITIES.
HOWEVER...CHANCES OF TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
610 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS CAUSING SHOWERS AS IT MOVES
TO THE EAST. IT IS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CAE CWA
AND SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
LIGHTNING DETECTION IS PICKING UP A LITTLE LIGHTNING...SO INCLUDED
A 60 PERCENT AREA MOVING EAST MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CAE. PUT
SHOWERS IN GRIDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.
OTHERWISE TODAY...MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EARLY WITH A
WEAK IMPULSE FOLLOWING BEHIND IT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
A NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO DRAG A SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1
INCH NORTH TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH...AND K INDEX VALUES FALLING INTO
THE 20S. MODELS INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITIES
DEVELOPING... HE STRONGEST INSTABILITIES ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR
THE CSRA/SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LIMITED BY DRIER AIR AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING...BUT
WHAT DOES FORM COULD BE SEVERE BASED ON DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SOME ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR EXPECTED AS
WELL. DRIER AIR AND MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS
REGION NEAR THE CSRA IN A SEE TEXT. OTHERWISE...LESS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO WENT LOWER 90S FOR
TUESDAY. DECIDED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO 3-4 HOURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS 22-23 PERCENT SOUTHERN PART INCLUDING
CSRA. 16-18 PERCENT POPS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRYING OCCURRING. AGAIN... WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
GIVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY...EXPECT THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS JUNE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER SHOULD TAKE HOLD FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING A BIT TO AROUND 90
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT MODIFY TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPSTATE SC...DRIFTING SE. LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE AND DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS OUR NORTHERN FA...SO STILL
THINKING THE ACTIVITY MAY NOT REACH OUR TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...
STRATUS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
AFTER MORNING RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. DRIER AIR AND SOME MID
LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANYTHING THAT DOES
FORM COULD BE SEVERE DUE TO EXPECTED STRONG INSTABILITIES.
HOWEVER...CHANCES OF TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
550 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN THE MIDLANDS OR THE CSRA. LOW
LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD COVER THE REGION UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 79S.
TODAY...MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EARLY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
FOLLOWING BEHIND IT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN A NW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO DRAG A SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING
IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH NORTH
TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH...AND K INDEX VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S.
MODELS INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING...
HE STRONGEST INSTABILITIES ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR THE
CSRA/SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LIMITED BY DRIER AIR AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING...BUT
WHAT DOES FORM COULD BE SEVERE BASED ON DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SOME ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR EXPECTED AS
WELL. DRIER AIR AND MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS
REGION NEAR THE CSRA IN A SEE TEXT. OTHERWISE...LESS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO WENT LOWER 90S FOR
TUESDAY. DECIDED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO 3-4 HOURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS 22-23 PERCENT SOUTHERN PART INCLUDING
CSRA. 16-18 PERCENT POPS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRYING OCCURRING. AGAIN... WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
GIVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY...EXPECT THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS JUNE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER SHOULD TAKE HOLD FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING A BIT TO AROUND 90
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT MODIFY TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPSTATE SC...DRIFTING SE. LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS OUR NORTHERN
FA...SO STILL THINKING THE ACTIVITY MAY NOT REACH OUR TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MVFR
TO IFR CIGS. AFTER MORNING RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPCTED TODAY. DRIER AIR AND
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANYTHING
THAT DOES FORM COULD BE SEVERE DUE TO EXPECTED STRONG
INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
151 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SHORT WAVE IN UPSTATE MOVING EAST CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. EARLIER THOUGHT THIS AREA WOULD NOT
IMPACT CAE CWA BUT NOW DECIDED TO HAVE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART
NEAR THE GSP CWA. THEN...HAVING ACTIVITY DROPPING OFF WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE LEVEL AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO DRAG A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO WENT LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY. DECIDED
TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO 3-4 HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST POPS 22-23 PERCENT SOUTHERN PART INCLUDING CSRA. 16-18
PERCENT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING OCCURRING. AGAIN... WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STRONGER ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST...DRY WEATHER
SHOULD TAKE HOLD FOR THE WEEKEND. VERY WARM AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ALSO...A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT MODIFYING
INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. BULK OF ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALSO SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE FA. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS CURRENTLY...WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
UPSTATE SC/NE GA. THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL AND
SURFACE OBS INDICATE STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO IFR CIGS. LATEST HRRR HIGH RES MODEL INDICATING STRATUS WITH
IFR CIGS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE...BUT WITH STRATUS IN PLACE AND WITH WIND
STAYING UP SOME...SHOULD KEEP VSBYS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NEAR TERM AT OGB...WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MAY PROMOTE SOME FOG BEFORE STRATUS CAN MOVE IN THERE.
AFTER MORNING RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY. DRIER AIR AND SOME MID
LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANYTHING THAT DOES
FORM COULD BE SEVERE DUE TO EXPECTED STRONG INSTABILITIES.
HOWEVER...CHANCES OF TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
720 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
510 PM CDT
AS STORMS MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND THE FAR WESTERN
SUBURBS OF METRO CHICAGO A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLY
ALSO THE STATIONARY FRONT...APPEARS TO EXTEND EAST FROM THE
PRIMARY CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH NORTHWEST WILL COUNTY INTO
CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY INDIANA. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BOUNDARY WHERE
ROTATION HAS BEEN FOCUSING PERIODICALLY IN SOUTHERN DE KALB
COUNTY. CAPE VALUES FALL SOMEWHAT ALONG THE LAKEFRONT...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR SUSTAINING THE EXISTING
ACTIVITY INTO AND SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...AND EVEN INTO
DOWNTOWN ITSELF. TORNADO SPINUPS ARE VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN
KENDALL INTO NORTHWEST WILL COUNTY...AND DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
REMAIN EQUALLY LIKELY.
LENNING
243 PM CDT
COUPLE QUICK THOUGHTS ON SOME EVOLUTIONS IN THE MESOSCALE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE PAST 60 TO 90 MINS. DEEPER MIXING IN THE WARM
SECTOR IS ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO VEER CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACK OR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN THE WARM
SECTOR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT IN OUR CWA THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AND HIGH END WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD
LIKELY END UP NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLED OUT FROM ROUGHLY NEAR
CHICAGO WNW TO DBQ. THIS BOUNDARY MAY YET FLUCTUATE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WHERE EVER THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST END SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH SUPERCELL OR MORE
LIKELY WITH STRONG MV`S ALONG LEADING EDGE OF BOW THIS EVENING.
THE 1800 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX STILL SHOW A STRONG CAP
PRESENT...HOWEVER COMPARISON OF BOTH SOUNDINGS SHOW EVIDENCE OF
ASCENT TAKING PLACE AND BEGINNING TO LIFT THROUGH THE CAP. ALSO
SEEING EVIDENCE OF THIS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
GRADUALLY DEEPENING CU FIELD OVER NW IL. HAVE BEGUN TO SEE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER NE IA ALREADY AND EXPECT MORE EXPLOSIVE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.
IZZI
130 PM CDT
THE MAIN THOUGHTS ON THE THREATS AND TIMING ON THE LIKELY SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK REMAIN SIMILAR.
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES MORE AGITATION IN THE ACCAS IN WEST-
TO-EAST BANDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT ECHOES CONTINUING ON THE
RADAR MOSAIC. THESE ARE SIGNS OF THE ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ACTUALLY ALREADY SOME MAMMATUS HAVE BEEN SEEN. STEEP LAPSE
RATES SEEN ON AMDAR DATA AND THE 18Z DVN RAOB ABOVE THIS LAYER
COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AND FAR NORTHWEST IN WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI/NORTHWEST IL. THE PRIMARY 1004MB SURFACE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST WITH 5 MB/3 HR
PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER THE CWA WHERE THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS POSITIONED ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY HAS UNDULATED
SOME...BUT APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-88 ESE INTO THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA...AND WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE DEFINED WITH CLEARING
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRONOUNCED DRYING ON
WATER VAPOR AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHERN MN AND A MID-
LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OVERRIDE THE WARM
FRONTAL REGION ACROSS EASTERN IA SHORTLY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SEEN ON HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT IN THIS AREA IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...WITH THE DVN RAOB AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVING INDICATED THE
CAP TO BE ERODED.
THIS LIKELY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AT FIRST WILL AGAIN EVOLVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL AFTER MAINLY 4 PM. THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR SPECTRUM OF THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERE ARE NO PROBLEMS FOR
SEVERE STORMS...WITH HIGH CAPE GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. SUPERCELLS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTED. SOME DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE INITIAL
CELLS...POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED...MAY OCCUR TOO DEPENDING ON IF THE
CIN CAN ERODE AND THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
ENHANCED. THIS LENDS TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE FIRST ROBUST
ACTIVITY COULD REACH CHICAGO. BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT TIMES STILL
LOOK TO BE 4-7 PM IN AND AROUND ROCKFORD AND 6-11 PM IN CHICAGO.
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
ROBUST MCS...WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY 80 TO 100 MPH WINDS...DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. ALL INGREDIENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THIS...INCLUDING A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET...SUFFICIENT 0-3 KM SHEAR
FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH DOWNDRAFT
CAPE...AND A VEERING STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET INTO A EXISTING
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT. MANY OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE
INDICATE NOT ONLY MCV TYPE STRUCTURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL RACING
INTO CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST IN THIS EVE...BUT ALSO AGREE ON HIGH
SURFACE-BASED WINDS. RAP AND NAM FORECASTS INTO TONIGHT FOR THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THIS AS WOULD THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF A
QUICKLY EASTWARD DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
WITH THE POSSIBLE PATH OF THIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MI IS THAT
A SEICHE WOULD BE FAVORED IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR. THE 12Z LOCAL ARW
ACTUALLY APPEARS TO HAVE THAT FORECAST IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS.
WILL MENTION THIS AND THE HIGHER ENDS WINDS OVER LAND IN THE HWO.+
&&
.DISCUSSION...
310 PM CDT
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE CONCERNS WILL STILL FOCUS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING. FOR DETAILS ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL...SEE THE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW. THAT SAID...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
PRIMED FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS THEY
WILL BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S AND PWATS BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES. FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERSPECTIVE...THIS PUTS THE REGION IN THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JUNE. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE REPEATED TRAINING OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT,,,WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURG
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING...BOTH AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST REGIONS. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS INN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE FRONT WHERE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SO...EXPECT THAT THE
LAKE FRONT LOCATIONS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAT THE INLAND
AREAS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
FOR THE WEEKEND...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BEGIN TO OVERTOP THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...12Z
FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE LATEST DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DOES NOT INDICATE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...BUT THE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT IT IS
A RATHER VIGOROUS WAVE...SO STRONG STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY. THE
ONE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
THE EXPECTED SFC DEW POINT TRENDS POINT TO A SLOW RETURN OF HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RETURN TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HAVE
MOVED WELL TO THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA. THIS COULD BRING A SHORT WEAKENING TREND IN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE HOT ON IT`S HEALS WILL
RENEW THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL HELP LOWER THE PCPN
POTENTIAL...BUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULES OUT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR DECREASING CHANCES FOR
PCPN AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM
AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. BY TUESDAY...COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER OVER THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
KREIN
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
315 PM
HAVE CONTINUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
SUBLETTE ILLINOIS TO DUNNS BRIDGE INDIANA LINE...EXPANDING THE
WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE LEE COUNTY. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THIS
AREA...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER PWATS
OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...WHICH PUTS THE AREA WITHING THE 100TH
PERCENTILE FOR PWATS FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY
SAYS THAT THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT GET MUCH HIGHER THAN
THIS. THIS WOULD ALSO INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. WITH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER LOCATIONS INCLUDING
THE HIGHLY URBANIZED ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREAS...URBAN
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND VIADUCTS LIKELY. THERE WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND SOME AREA RIVERS THAT HAVE
A REDUCED CAPACITY DUE TO PREVIOUS RAINFALL.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG WILL STILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH SHOWERS THEN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.
* MVFR/IFR VIS AND MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
* HIGHLY VARIABLE WINDS DUE TO PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH A TREND TO GO BACK NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAINING AROUND
THE TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...CEILINGS REMAINING VFR WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE STORMS BUT MVFR CEILINGS STILL SCATTERED ACROSS
THE AREA. ALSO...VISIBILITY OF 3-5SM BEING REPORTED WITH 1-2SM
POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. WITH CONDITIONS STILL FAVORING
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...KEPT TS IN THE TAFS WITH
MVFR VIS GENERALLY EXPECTED AS WELL AS VFR CEILINGS. ALTHOUGH ONCE
AGAIN...STILL POSSIBLE FOR THIS LOWER VIS/CEILINGS TO PERIODICALLY
MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A DOWNWARD
TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS THEN EXPECTED TOWARDS 3Z BUT
SHOWERS TO STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. OVERALL TS THREAT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING...BUT WITH ISOLATED TS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
UNTIL THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED PREVAILING
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING THESE LOWER
CEILINGS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. THEN VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SKIES COMPLETELY
SCATTERED AND ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THUNDERSTORM TRENDS THIS EVENING...WITH LOW
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH VIS/CEILING TRENDS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION IN THE NEAR
TERM...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...TSRA LIKELY...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
229 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ON THE LAKE IS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND ALSO A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
DENSE FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE....AND I REALLY DONT SEE ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THESE
CONDITIONS UNTIL EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...WHEN
THE WINDS START TO BECOME NORTHERLY. THEREFORE...I HAVE EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY FOR THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHGAN. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS QUITE HIGH...SO
KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL SET UP SOME STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT AND
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS THE WINDS
ABATE AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
LAKE.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022 UNTIL 4 AM
THURSDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...1 AM THURSDAY TO 4
PM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM THURSDAY TO
11 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. THE SHRA/TSRA IS HIGH BASED AND
OCCURRING ON TOP OF THE STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION WITH ASOS/AWOS/S
IN THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT SHOWING ANY CIGS AOB 12KFT.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THESE STORM IS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE HIGH BASES AND THE CAP AS WELL AS A FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 15KFT. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A WEAK
MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OVER NRN
MO AND SOUTHERN IA WHICH THE LATEST RAP RUNS SHOW WEAKENING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SO THE PRECIP THREAT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD
LESSEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
GOING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EVENT AN ISOLATED STORM CAN PUNCH THROUGH THE
CAP.
DLF
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST IS BRINGING AN ABRUPT TRANSITION TO AN
ACTIVE REGIME OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE REGION FOR TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND FORCING...AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE CAP IS NOTED ON THE
00Z UPPER ANALYSIS. 14 TO 18C AIR IS AT 700 MB ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOT FOR EVEN THE PEAK OF SUMMER. WHAT MIGHT BE AMAZING
WITHIN THIS NORMALLY EXTREME CAP...IS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE CONVECTION ALOFT
NORMALLY WOULD BE ASSUMED CAPPED...WITH AT LEAST 15C AT 700MB IN
THAT AREA. THIS BOOM OR BUST CAP WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CERTAIN ABOUT ONE THING...IT WILL BE SUNNY AND
CAPPED TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW A PERIOD OF
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE CAP...AND A SHORT
WAVE. LOOKING AT THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...THERE IS CONVECTION WITH
THIS WAVE IN NEBRASKA...INDICATED BY MESOMODELS...BUT NOT GLOBAL
MODELS. THUS...ONE CANNOT DISCARD THEM IN THIS CASE. ASSUMING WE
CAN BREAK THIS CAP TODAY...A WARM FRONT OVER OUR CENTRAL CWA WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAPABLE OF
ALLOWING THE AMPLE CAPE VALUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. AT
THIS POINT...I WOULD AGREE WITH SPC THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OF SEVERE LEVELS
SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. TODAY IS
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE AN CERTAIN FORECAST...AND DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS...I CAN ONLY JUSTIFY GOING 20 PERCENT
POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD
STORMS FORM...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND UPSCALE GROWTH WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS ALONG THE FRONT. ALL SAID...STAY TUNED TO THIS ONE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM...BUT WITH CIRRUS AND SOME
HIGH BASED STRATUS POSSIBLE TODAY...THE NORTH MAY BE HELD TO THE
LOWER 80S...WHILE THE SOUTH GETS FULLY INTO HEATING AND UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S SEEMS MORE ON TAP. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
94 TO 98 IN THE SOUTH 1/3...PRETTY AMAZING GIVEN OUR COOL SUMMER
THUS FAR.
TONIGHT...ITS COMPLICATED. ONGOING CELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING ALONG THE STALLED WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY YET BE CAPPED.
ANYWAY...IT APPEARS CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED BY LATE EVENING AS THE
LLJ GETS GOING OVER THE PLAINS...AND ALLOWS FOR SOME ELEVATED STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH HALF. THE MAIN SHOW...SHOULD BE FORMING OVER
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
SHOULD TRACK EAST...AND DEVELOP SOUTH AS THE LLJ CONVERGES AND
CAPPING WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THUS...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT...AND POPS ARE ONLY LIKELY VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WHEN CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SHOULD FORM
SOME CONVECTION EVEN ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD IT STILL
RULE THE ROOST THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A STICKY
HUMID...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...SUMMER IS HERE.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP
ACRS THE AREA AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
DIGS EASTWARD ACRS IA ALONG NORTHERN FRINGE OF A HIGH CAPE/
POTENTIALLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHAT
BLEEDS OUT OF TUE NIGHT AND LINGERS ACRS THE CWA WED MORNING IN THE
FORM OF AN ONGOING MCS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS...BUT CURRENT SIGNALS
ARE THAT THIS WILL DECAY AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR
DESTABILIZATION-AIR MASS RELOADING. IF SFC TEMPS CAN RECOVER INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 70 DPTS...RESULTANT 2500-3500 J/KG
SBCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE PLENTY FOR EXPECTED BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 50-60 KTS IN VIEW OF APPROACHING SFC LOW AND ATTACHED WARM
FRONT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MANY 00Z MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY SOME LK MI FETCH FROM
THE NORTHEAST MAY LAY OUT ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY WED
AFTERNOON...AND BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SUPER-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. IF
WE GET THE ABOVE MENTIONED CAPES AS THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST
APPROACHES...ALL VARIETIES OF SVR WX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE
DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING SUPERCELLS. THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR RIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CWA AGAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 AFTER 20Z WED. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY THEN EVOLVE
INTO A LARGE BOW ECHO OR A COUPLE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF IL LATE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TAKING OVER AS THE
MAIN WIDESPREAD THREAT. CURRENTLY PROGGED THTA-E LAPSE RATES AND
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT 70-85+ MPH WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACRS THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN DVN CWA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF IL WED EVENING. AGREE WITH
ASSESSMENT THAT ONGOING SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS IF ALL THESE LOOMING PARAMETERS
STILL SEEM WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD. HIGH TEMPS A SECONDARY CONCERN
AND A CHALLENGE WITH BOUNDARIES...MORNING DEBRIS AND AFTERNOON
RECOVERY SCENARIOS BUT MAY PLAY ON THE WARMER SIDE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I80. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA AFTER 03Z THU.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LATEST RUN 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTION STILL
ADVERTISE A SFC HIGH DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THIS
PERIOD WHILE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACRS THE PLAINS/MO RVR VALLEY IN
THE WAKE OF THE DIGGING GRT LKS TROF. THU DRY...LESS HUMID AND A
BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. SFC HIGH SHIFTS ACRS
THE WESTERN GRT LKS FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PERIOD ON FRI...BUT
THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO GET PUMMELED/BROADENED AGAIN BY
WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS ANOTHER
RIDGE-RIDING MCS MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACRS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
MO RVR VALLEY...POSSIBLY SPILLING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ELEVATED
STYLE LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A FLATTENING FLOW
PATTERN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT INTO SUNDAY. THE SAT MORNING MCS
MAY DECAY WITH OUTFLOW AND BOUNDARIES SETTLING TO THE SOUTH...ACTING
AS A FOCAL POINT FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT. HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THIS OCCUR STILL VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...
WITH THE NEW ECMWF SUGGESTING THE BULK OF IT OCCURRING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. THE 00Z GFS...GEM AND UKMET SUGGEST A SAT NIGHT
MCS TO DEVELOP RIGHT ACRS IA AND EFFECT MOST THE DVN CWA WITH MORE
SVR WEATHER AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL KEEP CHC POPS RIDING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MAIN BOUNDARY/STORM TRACK
SETTLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL AT QUESTION...BUT NOW THE GFS
WANTS TO MIGRATE THINGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH BACKDOOR STYLE
SFC HIGHS DOWN THE WESTERN GRT LKS MON INTO TUE...SIMILAR TO OLDER
ECMWF RUNS. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN IL BY LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER AN ELEVATED LAYER OF VERY WARM AIR WILL ACT TO
SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT SO NO MENTION OF TSRA WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN LATE TONIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BLEED INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING A VCTS WAS INCLUDED IN THE KCID/KDBQ FORECAST.
REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. THE SHRA/TSRA IS HIGH BASED AND
OCCURRING ON TOP OF THE STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION WITH ASOS/AWOS/S
IN THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT SHOWING ANY CIGS AOB 12KFT.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THESE STORM IS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE HIGH BASES AND THE CAP AS WELL AS A FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 15KFT. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A WEAK
MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OVER NRN
MO AND SOUTHERN IA WHICH THE LATEST RAP RUNS SHOW WEAKENING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SO THE PRECIP THREAT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD
LESSEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
GOING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EVENT AN ISOLATED STORM CAN PUNCH THROUGH THE
CAP.
DLF
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST IS BRINGING AN ABRUPT TRANSITION TO AN
ACTIVE REGIME OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE REGION FOR TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND FORCING...AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE CAP IS NOTED ON THE
00Z UPPER ANALYSIS. 14 TO 18C AIR IS AT 700 MB ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOT FOR EVEN THE PEAK OF SUMMER. WHAT MIGHT BE AMAZING
WITHIN THIS NORMALLY EXTREME CAP...IS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE CONVECTION ALOFT
NORMALLY WOULD BE ASSUMED CAPPED...WITH AT LEAST 15C AT 700MB IN
THAT AREA. THIS BOOM OR BUST CAP WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CERTAIN ABOUT ONE THING...IT WILL BE SUNNY AND
CAPPED TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW A PERIOD OF
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE CAP...AND A SHORT
WAVE. LOOKING AT THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...THERE IS CONVECTION WITH
THIS WAVE IN NEBRASKA...INDICATED BY MESOMODELS...BUT NOT GLOBAL
MODELS. THUS...ONE CANNOT DISCARD THEM IN THIS CASE. ASSUMING WE
CAN BREAK THIS CAP TODAY...A WARM FRONT OVER OUR CENTRAL CWA WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAPABLE OF
ALLOWING THE AMPLE CAPE VALUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. AT
THIS POINT...I WOULD AGREE WITH SPC THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OF SEVERE LEVELS
SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. TODAY IS
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE AN CERTAIN FORECAST...AND DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS...I CAN ONLY JUSTIFY GOING 20 PERCENT
POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD
STORMS FORM...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND UPSCALE GROWTH WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS ALONG THE FRONT. ALL SAID...STAY TUNED TO THIS ONE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM...BUT WITH CIRRUS AND SOME
HIGH BASED STRATUS POSSIBLE TODAY...THE NORTH MAY BE HELD TO THE
LOWER 80S...WHILE THE SOUTH GETS FULLY INTO HEATING AND UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S SEEMS MORE ON TAP. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
94 TO 98 IN THE SOUTH 1/3...PRETTY AMAZING GIVEN OUR COOL SUMMER
THUS FAR.
TONIGHT...ITS COMPLICATED. ONGOING CELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING ALONG THE STALLED WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY YET BE CAPPED.
ANYWAY...IT APPEARS CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED BY LATE EVENING AS THE
LLJ GETS GOING OVER THE PLAINS...AND ALLOWS FOR SOME ELEVATED STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH HALF. THE MAIN SHOW...SHOULD BE FORMING OVER
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
SHOULD TRACK EAST...AND DEVELOP SOUTH AS THE LLJ CONVERGES AND
CAPPING WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THUS...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT...AND POPS ARE ONLY LIKELY VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WHEN CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SHOULD FORM
SOME CONVECTION EVEN ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD IT STILL
RULE THE ROOST THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A STICKY
HUMID...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...SUMMER IS HERE.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP
ACRS THE AREA AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
DIGS EASTWARD ACRS IA ALONG NORTHERN FRINGE OF A HIGH CAPE/
POTENTIALLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHAT
BLEEDS OUT OF TUE NIGHT AND LINGERS ACRS THE CWA WED MORNING IN THE
FORM OF AN ONGOING MCS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS...BUT CURRENT SIGNALS
ARE THAT THIS WILL DECAY AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR
DESTABILIZATION-AIR MASS RELOADING. IF SFC TEMPS CAN RECOVER INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 70 DPTS...RESULTANT 2500-3500 J/KG
SBCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE PLENTY FOR EXPECTED BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 50-60 KTS IN VIEW OF APPROACHING SFC LOW AND ATTACHED WARM
FRONT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MANY 00Z MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY SOME LK MI FETCH FROM
THE NORTHEAST MAY LAY OUT ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY WED
AFTERNOON...AND BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SUPER-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. IF
WE GET THE ABOVE MENTIONED CAPES AS THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST
APPROACHES...ALL VARIETIES OF SVR WX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE
DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING SUPERCELLS. THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR RIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CWA AGAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 AFTER 20Z WED. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY THEN EVOLVE
INTO A LARGE BOW ECHO OR A COUPLE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF IL LATE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TAKING OVER AS THE
MAIN WIDESPREAD THREAT. CURRENTLY PROGGED THTA-E LAPSE RATES AND
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT 70-85+ MPH WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACRS THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN DVN CWA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF IL WED EVENING. AGREE WITH
ASSESSMENT THAT ONGOING SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS IF ALL THESE LOOMING PARAMETERS
STILL SEEM WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD. HIGH TEMPS A SECONDARY CONCERN
AND A CHALLENGE WITH BOUNDARIES...MORNING DEBRIS AND AFTERNOON
RECOVERY SCENARIOS BUT MAY PLAY ON THE WARMER SIDE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I80. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA AFTER 03Z THU.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LATEST RUN 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTION STILL
ADVERTISE A SFC HIGH DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THIS
PERIOD WHILE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACRS THE PLAINS/MO RVR VALLEY IN
THE WAKE OF THE DIGGING GRT LKS TROF. THU DRY...LESS HUMID AND A
BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. SFC HIGH SHIFTS ACRS
THE WESTERN GRT LKS FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PERIOD ON FRI...BUT
THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO GET PUMMELED/BROADENED AGAIN BY
WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS ANOTHER
RIDGE-RIDING MCS MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACRS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
MO RVR VALLEY...POSSIBLY SPILLING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ELEVATED
STYLE LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A FLATTENING FLOW
PATTERN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT INTO SUNDAY. THE SAT MORNING MCS
MAY DECAY WITH OUTFLOW AND BOUNDARIES SETTLING TO THE SOUTH...ACTING
AS A FOCAL POINT FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT. HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THIS OCCUR STILL VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...
WITH THE NEW ECMWF SUGGESTING THE BULK OF IT OCCURRING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. THE 00Z GFS...GEM AND UKMET SUGGEST A SAT NIGHT
MCS TO DEVELOP RIGHT ACRS IA AND EFFECT MOST THE DVN CWA WITH MORE
SVR WEATHER AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL KEEP CHC POPS RIDING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MAIN BOUNDARY/STORM TRACK
SETTLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL AT QUESTION...BUT NOW THE GFS
WANTS TO MIGRATE THINGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH BACKDOOR STYLE
SFC HIGHS DOWN THE WESTERN GRT LKS MON INTO TUE...SIMILAR TO OLDER
ECMWF RUNS. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WHILE CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE GENERALLY FORECAST
VFR...THERE WILL BE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
BEGINNING TOWARD 18Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SINCE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR A PROB30 OR TEMPO
GROUP AT THIS TIME...THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST TODAY AROUND 7 TO 9 KTS...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF NEARLY CALM WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD FROM 12-15Z TODAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE
RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES.
THE RUC AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WINDS FOR
TODAY...WITH RUC DOING THE BEST. AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT USING THESE MODELS. THE NEW DATA SUGGESTED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONTACTED THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR BOTH
COUNTIES WHO AGREED WITH THE ENHANCED FIRE RISK SO HAVE EXPANDED THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE COUNTIES.
ALSO ALTERED THE PRECIP. GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA HAS NO MIXED 1KM CAPE DUE TO THE VERY
LOW DEW POINTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE...SO WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
DRY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN. A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THE HIGHER DEW POINTS ALLOW THE 1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE TO INCREASE SO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DOWN BURST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TOWARD
MIDNIGHT THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE AREA.
ON A SIDE NOT...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MEET/EXCEED RECORDS
AND MAY ALSO MET/EXCEED ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR TODAY:
LOCATION YEAR RECORD
GOODLAND 2001 100
MCCOOK 1918 106
BURLINGTON 1918 102
HILL CITY 1953 106
COLBY 1918 104
TRIBUNE 2010 102
YUMA 1956 100
HERE IS A LIST OF ALL TIME RECORDS:
LOCATION YEAR RECORD
GOODLAND 1940 111
MCCOOK 2012 115
BURLINGTON 1990 107
HILL CITY 1936 117
YUMA 2012 111
TRIBUNE 2012 111
COLBY 2012 113
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND TROUGH/DRY LINE SOUTH...RESULTING IN
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE FORECAST AREA AND ENHANCED
DOWN SLOPE WARMING. END RESULT WILL BE RECORD BREAKING HEAT AND
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MONTHLY OR EVEN ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS AROUND 110...BUT WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITY HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE UP THE RIDGE OUT OF
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST
BY 12Z. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER RELATIVELY SPEAKING...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SQUELCH ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RETURN FLOW GETS
UNDER WAY AT THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENS COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WITH MUCH BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE EAST BUT BEST LIFT WILL BE IN THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE JUN 11
2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND PLACING OUR AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND BECOMES DOMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
COOL OUTFLOW WHICH COULD HAVE A RATHER WIDESPREAD IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN GREATEST COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT AS ANOMALOUS AS HAS OCCURRED EARLY THIS WEEK. MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED INITIAL GRIDS BY SMOOTHING POP FIELDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
WIND DIRECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH SITES. AS THE DRY LINE
MOVES THROUGH KGLD WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT KMCK A
SURFACE LOW WILL WOBBLE NEAR THE SITE THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING THE
WINDS TO BE VARIABLE. TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY...BUT IF A STORM
DOES MOVE OVER A TAF SITE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
937 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE
RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES.
THE RUC AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WINDS FOR
TODAY...WITH RUC DOING THE BEST. AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT USING THESE MODELS. THE NEW DATA SUGGESTED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONTACTED THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR BOTH
COUNTIES WHO AGREED WITH THE ENHANCED FIRE RISK SO HAVE EXPANDED THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE COUNTIES.
ALSO ALTERED THE PRECIP. GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA HAS NO MIXED 1KM CAPE DUE TO THE VERY
LOW DEW POINTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE...SO WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
DRY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN. A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THE HIGHER DEW POINTS ALLOW THE 1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE TO INCREASE SO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DOWN BURST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TOWARD
MIDNIGHT THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE AREA.
ON A SIDE NOT...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MEET/EXCEED RECORDS
AND MAY ALSO MET/EXCEED ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR TODAY:
LOCATION YEAR RECORD
GOODLAND 2001 100
MCCOOK 1918 106
BURLINGTON 1918 102
HILL CITY 1953 106
COLBY 1918 104
TRIBUNE 2010 102
YUMA 1956 100
HERE IS A LIST OF ALL TIME RECORDS:
LOCATION YEAR RECORD
GOODLAND 1940 111
MCCOOK 2012 115
BURLINGTON 1990 107
HILL CITY 1936 117
YUMA 2012 111
TRIBUNE 2012 111
COLBY 2012 113
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND TROUGH/DRY LINE SOUTH...RESULTING IN
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE FORECAST AREA AND ENHANCED
DOWN SLOPE WARMING. END RESULT WILL BE RECORD BREAKING HEAT AND
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MONTHLY OR EVEN ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS AROUND 110...BUT WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITY HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE UP THE RIDGE OUT OF
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST
BY 12Z. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER RELATIVELY SPEAKING...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SQUELCH ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RETURN FLOW GETS
UNDER WAY AT THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENS COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WITH MUCH BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE EAST BUT BEST LIFT WILL BE IN THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE JUN 11
2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND PLACING OUR AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND BECOMES DOMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
COOL OUTFLOW WHICH COULD HAVE A RATHER WIDESPREAD IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN GREATEST COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT AS ANOMALOUS AS HAS OCCURRED EARLY THIS WEEK. MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED INITIAL GRIDS BY SMOOTHING POP FIELDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE WIND
DIRECTION IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED
AT BOTH SITES WITH A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AT GLD BY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT GLD. A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT BOTH SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING EITHER TAF SITE
IS LOW. OUTFLOW FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR TAF SITES
WOULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THE WIND FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT MCK BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MODELS ARE PLAYING CATCH UP THIS
EVENING. WSR-88D SHOWING A BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH WITH 15 TO 25 MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THIS BOUNDARY IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
ACCORDING TO THE OUTPUT. DEWPOINTS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS WELL.
AM CONCERNED THAT CONSIDERING OUR WARM DAY THAT WE COULD HAVE AN
ABNORMALLY WARM NIGHT CONSIDERING THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO BLENDED REALITY
AND THE RUC WHICH SEEMED TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE WIND FIELD
AND INCREASED THE WIND EARLIER. ALSO WARMED UP MINS AND MAY NOT
HAVE WARMED THEM UP ENOUGH. KEPT THE POPS INTACT SINCE THAT LOOKS
REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
FORM EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
IS PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-70. FURTHER EAST A DRY LINE WAS
LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY GOODLAND SOUTHEAST TO OAKLEY. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. AM ANTICIPATING A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. MEANWHILE THE DRY LINE MAY SERVE AS A SECOND SOURCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGER CINH IS EAST OF THE DRY LINE WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO FORM
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1000-2000J/KG OF MIXED 1KM CAPE. IF STORMS
DO FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE THEY WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG SINCE MEAN
STORM MOTION WILL PUSH THE STORMS EAST OF THE DRY LINE INTO HIGHER
CINH.
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES PAST THE KS/CO BORDER IT
FILLS WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO GO.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DECLINES.
TUESDAY THE HOT TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AS THE WARM FRONT FROM
MONDAY PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...PLACING THE TRI-STATE AREA
FURTHER INTO THE HOT AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL REACH/EXCEED RECORD
VALUES. FOR A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS SEE CLIMATE SECTION. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT THE DRY LINE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE DRY LINE STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY WINDS MAY
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR MORE INFORMATION. OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...PERIOD WILL START WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BREAKING DOWN PREVAILING RIDGE AXIS ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
AMPLIFYING RIDGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT BEFORE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE STABLE PROFILE EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM
POTENTIAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ALTHOUGH DEPARTING SFC HIGH REPRESENTS A COOLER AIR MASS...TDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT VALUES RESULTING IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY. CINH REMAINS STRONG HOWEVER SO CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS NOT REALLY HIGH...ALTHOUGH THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED
AS OVERALL AS FAIRLY LONG HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED AND GIVEN INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A PERIOD OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHWEST PORTION OF
LARGE H5 RIDGE AS IT BUILDS BACK OVER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY
WEEKEND BRINGING CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. TEMPS MAY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY...BUT AS PERIOD GOES ON POTENTIAL FOR
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING MCS RESULTING IN COOLER OUTFLOW LIMITS
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN HEAT THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT PRECIP THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ECMWF POINTING MORE TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND GFS THE
EVENING HOURS. WITH CWA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MODELS
SUGGESTING DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE 50-65 RANGE...THINK THUNDER
CHANCES ARE REASONABLE ALTHOUGH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES THINK
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE WILL SUFFICE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...UNCERTAIN AND
COMPLICATED WIND FORECAST. VARIABLE WINDS AT KMCK DUE TO OUTFLOW
FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE SITE. ALSO A WARM FRONT IS
MOVING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW FAR NORTH IT MOVES AND
WHEN IT COMES BACK AS A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. PLUS A SURFACE TROUGH
WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AT KGLD. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SINCE THIS CHANCE IS SPOTTY IN
NATURE...UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP AND
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...CHOSE TO LEAVE ANY MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
CONTACTED THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY CO AND WICHITA
COUNTY...THE DRIEST PLACES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA...ASKING ABOUT THE
CONDITIONS OF THE GRASSES. BOTH SAID THE GRASSES ARE DRYING OUT
AND WILL BURN BUT ARE TOO GREEN FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH...BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS
SUCH WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE AND LET
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL SINCE WINDS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH WHILE THE FUELS ARE NOT AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY:
LOCATION YEAR RECORD
GOODLAND 2001 100
MCCOOK 1918 106
BURLINGTON 1918 102
HILL CITY 1953 106
COLBY 1918 104
TRIBUNE 2010 102
YUMA 1956 100
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JTL
CLIMATE...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
643 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
HOT HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100F. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY OK FOR NOW AND WILL RUN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.
WVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS WAVE MOVING INTO SW MINNESOTA AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OFF TO OUR
NORTH FROM PORTIONS OF IOWA INTO ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND OHIO. THE
QUESTION FOR OUR AREA...IS HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP WITH THIS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION/MESOSCALE MODELS ARE VARIABLE. A COUPLE OF
4KM MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ALL THE WAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. WHILE VARIANTS OF THE HRRR STANDARD AND ENSEMBLE COMPOSITE
DATA SUGGEST A LIMITED CHANCE INTO THE KEVV TRI-STATE IF ANYTHING
AT ALL...AND NOTHING WEST AND SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING MID
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS/WEAKENING CAP...THINK IT PRUDENT WE
MAINTAIN POPS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY FOR NOW
WITH MID RANGE CHANCE POPS KEVV TRI-STATE...LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TOWARD THE I-55 CORRIDOR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED EITHER WAY
HOW THINGS PAN OUT. AND SHOULD CONVECTION TAKE SHAPE IN OUR
AREA...IT COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN...WE WILL RID THE SHORT LIVED HEAT EPISODE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD A VERY SHARP...BUT NARROW AMPLITUDE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PARKED JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MEAN MOISTURE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS IS ORIENTED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND
DIVING SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW...BUT ROBUST
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A SERIES OF MINOR
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE MUCH FASTER
WESTERLIES MAY GENERATE NON-DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES. THE BIG KEY WILL
BE THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...KEEPING MOST OF THE WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR POPS.
BY THE TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ROLLS AROUND THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE FLATTENS...SUPPORTING A MUCH MORE ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW AND
FORCING OVER THE AREA. THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS ALSO MORE
SOUTHERLY AND TARGETED TOWARD THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS
IN MIND...RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED FROM HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY BY
EARLY MONDAY...FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
MORE DOMINANT RIDGING TAKES PLACE LATE MONDAY...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...UNTIL RIDGING
ALOFT CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE BY MID-WEEK...ANTECEDENT SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/STATIONARY FRONTS SHOULD SUPPORT A SMALL DIURNAL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS STRESSFUL AS WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING TODAY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
THE MAIN STORY IN THE TAFS IS THE SWRLY WIND...WHICH WILL STAY GUSTY
WELL INTO THE EVENING. IN FACT...WINDS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO BELOW 10 KTS. THE WIND IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION...AND A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY THU...YIELDING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. ATTM...NO
PCPN OR VSBY RESTRICTION IS IN THE KEVV/KOWB TAFS DUE TO THE LIMITED
CHANCE THAT A TSTM COMPLEX COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF THIS FAR SOUTH IN
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
654 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT THEN EXIT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 1900L: PRECIP SPREADING INTO FAR NRN AREAS ATTM SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE OVRNGT HRS.
PREV DISC: MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE QPF AND PLACEMENT.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS HAS BEEN
DROPPED AS MAJOR FLOODING NOT EXPECTED/THIS EVENT. SO FAR, STORM
TOTALS HAVE BEEN 0.25 TO AROUND 0.50 FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
DOWN TO THE COAST AND THIS HAS BEEN MAINLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND
COAST. FURTHER NORTH, AMOUNTS OF 005 TO 0.10 MAINLY FROM HOULTON TO
MILLINOCKET W/SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF UP TO 0.25 SUCH AS KNOWLES
CORNER DUE TO SOME CONVERGENCE. 18Z RADAR HAD LARGE AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS ALIGNING W/A THETA E
AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK BACK ACROSS WSW MAINE. ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN DOWN ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS LIFTING NORTH.
THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGE
WITH THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL REGION. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS
HOLDING PRECIP SHIELD AT BAY.
LOW PRES AT THE SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR HANDLE THIS WELL
AND LEANED CLOSE TO THIS BLEND INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE, RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. LLVL CONVERGENCE
AND FORCING AT THE MID LEVELS WILL AID IN ENHANCING AND EXPANDING
THE RAINFALL. ATTM, PUSHED POPS UP TO NEAR 100% ACROSS THE WESTERN
AROOSTOOK AND NW PISCATAQUIS REGION TO MATCH UP W/THE RADAR TRENDS
AND RUC PLACEMENT. AS LOW PRES LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS GET UNDER NVA AND LESS FORCING. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND
EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE ECMWF AND NOW
THE GFS. AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
AS THE 700MBS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION W/FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING SETTING UP. DECIDED TO LEAN W/THE NERFC QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THINKING W/AND ADDITIONAL 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM
12-00Z. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW GETS CAPTURED AND PULLS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL DRY OUT W/RAIN
ENDING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
MAINLY RUNNING IN THE 50S CWA WIDE. COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY USING A
BLEND OF THE NAM12/GMOS AND ECMWFMOS WHICH SHOWED LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. A NE WIND PICKING UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL AID IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF WITH HIGHEST POPS
EXPECTED SOUTH FRIDAY. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL BLEND THE NAM12 AND
GMOS. WILL USE 150 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEED FOR GUSTS.
TEMPERATURE INITIALIZED WITH THE GMOS. WILL ADD 3 DEGREES FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND 2 DEGREES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LOW GMOS BIAS LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, LEADING TO A MOSTLY
DRY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING
DROPPING TO MVFR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FROM KHUL DOWN INTO
KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
BY FRIDAY W/A ESE FLOW SETTING UP. VFR EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS KBGR AND KBHB WHERE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 1900L: ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO WED AM...
PREV DISC: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE. A SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
OUT THERE ATTM W/WAVES OF 3 FT AND A 8-9 SECOND PERIOD. A BRIEF
WINDOW(3-6HR) OF WINDS APCHG 25 KTS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL COME DOWN AS THE LOW PULLS
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WAVES HEIGHTS CLIMBING ATTM TO 5-6 FT PER THE
LATEST OBS. DECIDED TO BRING WAVES UP A FOOT TO HIT 7-8 FT W/THE
LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. THE LATEST SWAN GUIDANCE HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.
SHORT TERM: FOR WIND WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND
GFS40. HAVE LOWERED SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 20 PERCENT TO
COMPENSATE FOR MARINE LAYER. FOR GUST SPEED WILL USE 125 PERCENT
OF SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: NORTHEAST WIND WAVES PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SECONDARY SOUTHERLY SWELL OUT OF
SOUTH (2 FEET/9 SECONDS). WILL USE NAM/SWAN TO INITIALIZE WAVE
GRIDS AND WILL REDUCE WAVE HEIGHT 1 FOOT TO COMPENSATE FOR HIGH
BIAS EXPECTED FROM NAM WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT THEN EXIT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE QPF AND PLACEMENT.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS HAS BEEN
DROPPED AS MAJOR FLOODING NOT EXPECTED/THIS EVENT. SO FAR, STORM
TOTALS HAVE BEEN 0.25 TO AROUND 0.50 FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
DOWN TO THE COAST AND THIS HAS BEEN MAINLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND
COAST. FURTHER NORTH, AMOUNTS OF 005 TO 0.10 MAINLY FROM HOULTON TO
MILLINOCKET W/SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF UP TO 0.25 SUCH AS KNOWLES
CORNER DUE TO SOME CONVERGENCE. 18Z RADAR HAD LARGE AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS ALIGNING W/A THETA E
AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK BACK ACROSS WSW MAINE. ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN DOWN ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS LIFTING NORTH.
THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGE
WITH THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL REGION. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS
HOLDING PRECIP SHIELD AT BAY.
LOW PRES AT THE SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR HANDLE THIS WELL
AND LEANED CLOSE TO THIS BLEND INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE, RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. LLVL CONVERGENCE
AND FORCING AT THE MID LEVELS WILL AID IN ENHANCING AND EXPANDING
THE RAINFALL. ATTM, PUSHED POPS UP TO NEAR 100% ACROSS THE WESTERN
AROOSTOOK AND NW PISCATAQUIS REGION TO MATCH UP W/THE RADAR TRENDS
AND RUC PLACEMENT. AS LOW PRES LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS GET UNDER NVA AND LESS FORCING. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND
EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE ECMWF AND NOW
THE GFS. AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
AS THE 700MBS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION W/FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING SETTING UP. DECIDED TO LEAN W/THE NERFC QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THINKING W/AND ADDITIONAL 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM
12-00Z. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW GETS CAPTURED AND PULLS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL DRY OUT W/RAIN
ENDING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
MAINLY RUNNING IN THE 50S CWA WIDE. COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY USING A
BLEND OF THE NAM12/GMOS AND ECMWFMOS WHICH SHOWED LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. A NE WIND PICKING UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL AID IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF WITH HIGHEST POPS
EXPECTED SOUTH FRIDAY. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL BLEND THE NAM12 AND
GMOS. WILL USE 150 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEED FOR GUSTS.
TEMPERATURE INITIALIZED WITH THE GMOS. WILL ADD 3 DEGREES FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND 2 DEGREES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LOW GMOS BIAS LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, LEADING TO A MOSTLY
DRY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING
DROPPING TO MVFR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FROM KHUL DOWN INTO
KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
BY FRIDAY W/A ESE FLOW SETTING UP. VFR EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS KBGR AND KBHB WHERE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE. A SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
OUT THERE ATTM W/WAVES OF 3 FT AND A 8-9 SECOND PERIOD. A BRIEF
WINDOW(3-6HR) OF WINDS APCHG 25 KTS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL COME DOWN AS THE LOW PULLS
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WAVES HEIGHTS CLIMBING ATTM TO 5-6 FT PER THE
LATEST OBS. DECIDED TO BRING WAVES UP A FOOT TO HIT 7-8 FT W/THE
LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. THE LATEST SWAN GUIDANCE HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.
SHORT TERM: FOR WIND WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND
GFS40. HAVE LOWERED SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 20 PERCENT TO
COMPENSATE FOR MARINE LAYER. FOR GUST SPEED WILL USE 125 PERCENT
OF SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: NORTHEAST WIND WAVES PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SECONDARY SOUTHERLY SWELL OUT OF
SOUTH (2 FEET/9 SECONDS). WILL USE NAM/SWAN TO INITIALIZE WAVE
GRIDS AND WILL REDUCE WAVE HEIGHT 1 FOOT TO COMPENSATE FOR HIGH
BIAS EXPECTED FROM NAM WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1032 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT
THEN EXIT SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...MODIFIED THE POPS AND QPF USING THE SREF FOR THE
POPS BRINGING THE RAINFALL SHIELD FURTHER N AND W. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR AND 06Z GFS DID THE BEST JOB W/THE TIMING ALTHOUGH
STILL SLOW COMPARED TO THE RADAR TRENDS. RAINFALL ALREADY HITTING
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND POINTS TO THE WEST ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LIGHT. BLENDED HPC AND GFS FOR THE QPF OUT THROUGH 00Z WHICH
POINTS TO 2 AREAS OF HEAVIER QPF. 1 AREA IS BACK TOWARD THE
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY REGION DUE TO UPSLOPE & THE 2ND AREA IS FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES ARE DOING WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... YET ANOTHER WET SYSTEM TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE CWA. A 1005 MB LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NY STATE TODAY. A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY MID AFTERNOON...AND
THE ENERGY FROM THE LOW IN NY STATE GETS ABSORBED BY THE NEW LOW
IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE LOW MOVES TO NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAIN
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A
VERY WET DAY FOR DOWNEAST MAINE WITH RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT NORTH OF
BAXTER STATE PARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK
AROUND THE LOW TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE FOR DOWNEAST
AND CENTRAL MAINE WHILE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY
DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
BRING RAIN TO DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BIT OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT THE RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTH MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH JUST A CHANCE
FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS. THE SKY MAY BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY WITH DOWNEAST AREAS
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BEFORE DAWN. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE DOWNEAST LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE EAST WILL CARRY A SMALL
LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN
WILL BE MOSTLY LIKELY DOWNEAST ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DRIER AIR MAY
MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IN OUR ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB THIS
MORNING WITH IFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR TODAY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER
TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KHUL...BUT FROM KPQI NORTH TO KFVE
CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN VFR OR AT WORSE LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR ACROSS
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. CALM CLEAR AIR AND MOIST GROUND MAY THEN RESULT
IN FOG LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR IN SPOTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AS OF 2 AM EDT SEAS RUNNING 2-2.5 FT AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 06Z THU FOR SLY SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND A FEW WINDS GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD THEN DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BRING SCA CONDITIONS
AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WED MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
QPF AND HAS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AN INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 2 INCHES IN WASHINGTON COUNTY. USED A BLEND OF THE INHERITED
QPF WITH THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE RFC. AMOUNTS WERE MANUALLY
LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE AREAS UP IN THE SJV MAY
GET LITTLE OR NO RAIN FROM THIS EVENT AND THE FORECAST QPF WAS
LOWERED TO < 0.10". WILL DOWNPLAY THE FLOODING POTENTIAL A BIT IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND THE WATCH MIGHT BE DROPPED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ011-015>017-
029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
646 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT
THEN EXIT SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FIZZLED OUT AS IT LIMPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT BAY AND THE OUTER ISLANDS. THE RADAR HAS
FILLED IN NICELY OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE.
RAIN WILL SPREAD NE THIS MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.
THE HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN AS OF
10Z. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO INCREASE THEM IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH TO
BLOCK OUT THE SUN IN MOST AREAS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER WET SYSTEM TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE CWA. A 1005 MB LOW
OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NY
STATE TODAY. A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SECONDARY LOW MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THE ENERGY FROM THE LOW
IN NY STATE GETS ABSORBED BY THE NEW LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
EVENING. THE LOW MOVES TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH
AND EAST TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET DAY FOR DOWNEAST MAINE
WITH RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. RAIN
WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT NORTH OF BAXTER STATE PARK BY LATE IN THE
DAY. MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK AROUND THE LOW TONIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN CONTINUE FOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE WHILE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
BRING RAIN TO DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BIT OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT THE RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTH MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH JUST A CHANCE
FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS. THE SKY MAY BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY WITH DOWNEAST AREAS
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BEFORE DAWN. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE DOWNEAST LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE EAST WILL CARRY A SMALL
LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN
WILL BE MOSTLY LIKELY DOWNEAST ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DRIER AIR MAY
MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IN OUR ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB THIS
MORNING WITH IFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR TODAY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER
TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KHUL...BUT FROM KPQI NORTH TO KFVE
CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN VFR OR AT WORSE LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR ACROSS
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. CALM CLEAR AIR AND MOIST GROUND MAY THEN RESULT
IN FOG LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR IN SPOTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AS OF 2 AM EDT SEAS RUNNING 2-2.5 FT AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 06Z THU FOR SLY SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND A FEW WINDS GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD THEN DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BRING SCA CONDITIONS
AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WED MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
QPF AND HAS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AN INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 2 INCHES IN WASHINGTON COUNTY. USED A BLEND OF THE INHERITED
QPF WITH THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE RFC. AMOUNTS WERE MANUALLY
LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE AREAS UP IN THE SJV MAY
GET LITTLE OR NO RAIN FROM THIS EVENT AND THE FORECAST QPF WAS
LOWERED TO < 0.10". WILL DOWNPLAY THE FLOODING POTENTIAL A BIT IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND WILL BRIEF THE INCOMING SHIFT THAT THE FLOOD
WATCH CAN LIKELY BE DROPPED LATER TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ011-015>017-
029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
813 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IMPACTING THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...LITTLE OCCURRING W/IN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE
AREA...THOUGH STILL HUMID AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE DENSE
DEBRIS UPPER CLOUD DECK STARTING TO EAT-AWAY AT THE INSTABILITY...
ESPEC ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DOTTED THE
LANDSCAPE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...MAINLY ACROSS NRN OHIO AND THE
MUCH LARGER AMNT OF ACTIVITY SURROUNDING CHICAGO/LAKE MI.
LOCAL GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUING TO BRING SCATTERED
AND DISJOINTED BATCHES OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT THE MORE INTENSE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED MCS
IS BEING PROGGED MORE AND AN EAST-WEST BATCHES OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS
DRIFTING OFF TO SE. MONITORING THE UPPER MIDWEST CONVECTION...
THESE CELLS ARE ACTUALLY MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY...SO THEIR
FORWARD PROGRESS WON`T COVER TOO MUCH GROUND.
THE FOCAL POINT OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION HAS BEEN AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE PSEUDO-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE
BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED OVER TOP THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE...WHICH IS LAID
OUT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN THRU CNTRL WV AND TOWARD THE I-64
CORRIDOR.
FROM PREV DISC...GIVEN THE STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH
DEEP- LAYER W-NWLY SHEAR...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN AS THIS THUNDERSTORMS DIVE SEWD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TNGT. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OUR CONCERN FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE ON THU AFTN. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOPRES SYSTEM WILL TRACK
EWD ACROSS PA TOMORROW WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OH
VLY.
12Z MODELS SHOW SMALL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY BUT CURRENT THINKING IS FROPA WILL OCCUR LATE ENOUGH
IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR STRONG PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE MRNG ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE OVNGT MCS WILL IMPACT HEATING
INITIALLY. 09Z SREF SHOWS A DECENT CHANCE /GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT/
OF SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG BY THE AFTN FROM I-95 EAST.
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT /BULK SHEAR VALUES 40 KT OR
GREATER/ AND DEEP LIFT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE
DURING THE MIDDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FAVOR A LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION WITH A LARGE BOWING SEGMENT
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SPC HAS PLACED AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR TOMORROW. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE WOULD BE AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR A TORNADO NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOPRES MVG OFF THE CST THU NGT...W/ ANY RESIDUAL SHRA EXITING DURING
THE EVNG HRS. LT EVNG THRU THE OVNGT SHUD BE DRY...W/ CLRG SKIES AS
NW WINDS PICK UP. THE SURGE OF DRIER AIR WL BE THE BIGGER IMPACT...
AS 30-35 KT AVBL IN H9-8 LYR...ALL W/ FVRBL MIXING POTL. HV INFUSED
SOME 30 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE DATABASE BHD THE LOW...BUT GRDLY TAPER
THEM OFF OVNGT.
H5 TROF AXIS STEEPENS BY FRI MRNG...PROVIDING SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WL BE DOWNSLOPING WINDS/INCRSG
SUBSIDENCE FM BLDG SFC HIGH. HWVR...FEEL ITS PRUDENT TO HV SCHC/CHC
SHRA IN THE GRIDS...PRIMARILY FOR THE MID AFTN HRS. ONCE DIURNAL
MIXING RESUMES...BRZY CONDS WL RETURN. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WNDS WL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY LCL GUSTS INVOF SHRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A QUIET
WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. TEMPERATURES CREEP UP
ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE MORE
CLOUDS...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY CONVECTION REMAINS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE CWA MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TWO ROUNDS OF TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FIRST ROUND
WOULD LIKELY BE OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED FOR RAIN AND FOG. 2ND ROUND OF
STORMS WOULD BE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...LIKELY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMRB AND AFTER NOON FOR OTHER TAF SITES. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS. FORECAST UPDATES LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL REFINE TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THESE STORMS. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT FROM THE S-SW EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON HOURS THU.
PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED FRI THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND LATE SUNDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF
BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS OVNGT. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20-30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACCORDINGLY.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL LIKELY BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TO BE ON THE WATERS THU AFTN.
A NWLY SURGE WL COME BHD DEPARTING LOPRES THU NGT...W/ 30-35 KT
AVBL ASSUMING FULL MIXING. AM UNCOMFORTABLE MAKING THAT ASSUMPTION
LT IN THE EVNG FLLWG NMRS TSRA...BUT DO RECOGNIZE A SYNOPTIC SCALE
STRONG WND THREAT...SPCLY IN THE EVNG. WL THEREFORE RAISE A HIGH
END SCA FOR THU...KEEPING THE GLW PSBL WORDING IN THE SYN AND HWO.
THE SCA POTL LASTS INTO FRI...ALTHO THE WND GUSTS/SPDS WL GRDLY BE
DIMINISHING OVNGT AND THRU FRI. WL CONT SCA EVERYWHERE TIL 17Z
/1PM/ AS A STARTING POINT. ANTICIPATE FOR SOME WATERS...MD BAY
MAYBE?...THAT THE SCA MAY BE REQD LONGER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA TNGT AND THU. WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN A 1-HR FFG AROUND AN INCH.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
OH VLY TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVE AND TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TNGT. IF THE COMPLEX HOLDS UP...IT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HVY DOWNPOURS WITH A QUICK INCH IN AN HOUR
POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TNGT WILL BE OVER NRN MD AND
THE ERN WV PANHANDLE...WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES.
STEADY HEAVIER RAIN IS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...WHICH LIKELY PUTS WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE AREA ON THU. HOWEVER...EVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DEFINITELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. ANOMALIES WOULD NEED TO REACH
APPROXIMATELY 3 FT FOR TIDAL FLOODING. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED ANOMALIES FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
DAY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANOMALIES THAT WOULD THREATEN
COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...ANY LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL WILL STILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS THOSE THRESHOLDS ARE QUITE LOW. PLEASE
REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003-501-
502.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>031-
036-037-503-504.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ038>040-042-050>057-501-502.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>053-
055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RIDE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...IMPACTING THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND MAY HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.
UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT A BIT...AND WILL SWING
THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
UNTIL THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY WITHIN THE PATH OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. AT 07Z...RADAR
SHOWED SOME SHOWERS HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CWA DUE TO PVA AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX. THIS WILL WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. MORE SHOWERS WERE COMING OFF LAKE ERIE AND MAY ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. 04Z RUN OF THE HRRR LOOKED
DECENT...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH TODAYS POP/WX FORECAST.
NVA/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVE IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN W/NW FLOW ALOFT.
FOR TEMPERATURES...FAVORED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET WHICH
FORECASTS MAXIMA/MINIMA NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
WAVES...HOWEVER DURING THIS TIME THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO EXPERIENCING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER.
IT LOOKS AS IF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH.
WITH W/NW FLOW IN PLACE...ANY UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
COULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS COULD HAPPEN
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATEST MODELS TREND LOW PRESSURE FURTHER NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA. LOCATION
OF LOW PRESSURE/WARM FRONT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT IF THIS
OCCURS...CWA WOULD BE IN A WARM SECTOR FOR THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. SO EVEN IF THE STORM TRACK FOR MCS ACTIVITY WERE
TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...CWA WOULD STILL BE IN A POSITION
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER /DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES GIVEN THE FORECAST
SHEAR/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS /IFR/ WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 09Z ACROSS THE
HUBS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING PROMOTING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. UPPER TROUGH LAGS...SO STILL COULD HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD FOCUS SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT MAY THEN BRING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC/LOWER MD BAY AREA WITH NEAR 20 KT CONTINUING. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY...PROMOTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ533-534-537-543.
&&
$$
BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1000 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO ALONG INTERSTATE 96 BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ALREADY OUT FOR
OTTAWA COUNTY FOR A PERSISTENT STRONG UPDRAFT/HAIL CORE THAT MADE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH ONLY A MINOR LOSS OF INTENSITY.
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH 06Z ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-96. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO. THE HIGH WIND
THREAT COULD EXPAND IF THE LINE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTER OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH SHORT RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE THIS HAPPENING...THESE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND COULD EVOLVE INTO A
LONG LIVED BOW ECHO.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS... SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL FLOODING. SOME CLEARING
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TO
MID EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.
WE EXPECT A LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-80 INTO THE EVENING
THAT WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTH
INTO I-94 INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
DEVELOP THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A TROWAL ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT THAT WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL. WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
DEVELOP WEST OF CHICAGO BY 6 PM THEN TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE MICHIGAN INDIANA BORDER DURING THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR... RAP AND SPC
WRF. THIS RAINFALL IS INDEPENDENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS
EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING
SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO CREATE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BEYOND THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN AND BRING FAIR WX FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT KAZO... KBTL AND KJXN DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS. A FAST MOVING COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS IS LIKELY TO
IMPACT THESE TERMINALS FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING... HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING WIND GUSTS TO POTENTIALLY REACH 45
KTS IN THE STORMS BUT POTENTIALLY WIND GUSTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER IF
AN ORGANIZED BOW ECHO MOVES ACROSS THE I-94 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
FURTHER NORTH (KMKG... KGRR AND KLAN) FROM MID TO LATE EVENING BUT
THOSE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE SEVERE.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VSBY/S (FOG) DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY WITH NNW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 KTS AND JUST SOME SCT HIGH CLOUD COVER.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
WE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
DUE TO 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WE ADDED FOG TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BASED ON WEB CAMS AND
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE MID 50S LAKE
TEMPERATURES. ONCE WIND SHIFTS MID EVENING TO THE NORTH AND
BRINGS DRIER AIR IN THE FOG DISPERSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE KALAMAZOO
AND SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASINS TONIGHT WITH MOST OF IT FALLING BY
06Z. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME QUICK RISES ON STREAMS WITH THE MAIN RIVER
BRANCHES SEEING RISES IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LOWERED QPF AFTER
06Z TONIGHT PER SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH
RFC.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ056>059-064>067-
071>074.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MIZ043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
729 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/HYDRO
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
MAIN THREATS TONIGHT ARE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 AS A LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVES THROUGH. AS FOR
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE BEING IMPACTED BY 10
PM WITH THE STORMS REACHING KALAMAZOO BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM AND
JACKSON BETWEEN 11 PM AM AND MIDNIGHT. WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ATTM
ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC WARM FRONT AND SHOULD REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL WATCH A LARGE BATCH
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THIS COULD FORM INTO A
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO THAT WILL AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE WITH OVER 60 KTS
OF SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH 2000 TO 3000 CAPES.
FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS WELL ABOVE
EVEN SUMMER CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES AND TRAINING OF STORMS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS... SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL FLOODING. SOME CLEARING
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TO
MID EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.
WE EXPECT A LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-80 INTO THE EVENING
THAT WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTH
INTO I-94 INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
DEVELOP THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A TROWAL ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT THAT WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL. WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
DEVELOP WEST OF CHICAGO BY 6 PM THEN TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE MICHIGAN INDIANA BORDER DURING THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR... RAP AND SPC
WRF. THIS RAINFALL IS INDEPENDENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS
EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING
SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO CREATE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BEYOND THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN AND BRING FAIR WX FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT KAZO... KBTL AND KJXN DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS. A FAST MOVING COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS IS LIKELY TO
IMPACT THESE TERMINALS FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING... HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING WIND GUSTS TO POTENTIALLY REACH 45
KTS IN THE STORMS BUT POTENTIALLY WIND GUSTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER IF
AN ORGANIZED BOW ECHO MOVES ACROSS THE I-94 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
FURTHER NORTH (KMKG... KGRR AND KLAN) FROM MID TO LATE EVENING BUT
THOSE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE SEVERE.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VSBY/S (FOG) DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY WITH NNW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 KTS AND JUST SOME SCT HIGH CLOUD COVER.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
WE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
DUE TO 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WE ADDED FOG TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BASED ON WEB CAMS AND
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE MID 50S LAKE
TEMPERATURES. ONCE WIND SHIFTS MID EVENING TO THE NORTH AND
BRINGS DRIER AIR IN THE FOG DISPERSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE KALAMAZOO
AND SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASINS TONIGHT WITH MOST OF IT FALLING BY
06Z. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME QUICK RISES ON STREAMS WITH THE MAIN RIVER
BRANCHES SEEING RISES IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LOWERED QPF AFTER
06Z TONIGHT PER SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH
RFC.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ064>067-
071>074.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAST WNW FLOW ALF
WITH H3 WINDS UP TO 100KT ALONG THE CNDN BORDER BTWN CLOSED LO OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA AND UPR RDG OVER THE PLAINS. UPR MI IS DOMINATED BY
SHRTWV RDG TO THE NW OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE LOWER LKS/MID
ATLANTIC STATES...WITH WEAK HI PRES RDG BRINGING DRY WX TO UPR MI
EARLY THIS MRNG EVEN THOUGH SCT-BKN CLDS ARE IMPACTING THE AREA.
SHRTWV ON THE CYC SIDE OF 100KT H3 JET CORE IN FAST WLY FLOW ALF IS
MOVING THRU SW ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF THE CNDN BORDER AND CAUSING
SOME SHRA/A FEW TS FM THE MN ARROWHEAD TOWARD ISLE ROYALE/NW LK SUP
UNDER THE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND WELL E OF H85 COLD
FNT/DRY LINE MOVING THRU NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING JUST N OF THE MN BORDER.
TDAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SHRA/ISOLD TS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD IS
PROGGED TO DRIVE E ACRS NRN LK SUP AND INTO ONTARIO E OF THE LK THIS
AFTN. SINCE BULK OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SHIFT W-E JUST N OF UPR
MI...WHICH WILL BE ON THE ACYC SIDE OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...
SUSPECT THE BULK OF THE SHRA NOW OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WL REMAIN
JUST N OF THE LAND CWA...WITH THE SOMEWHAT HIER POPS FM ISLE ROYALE
TO THE KEWEENAW THIS MRNG BEFORE DRYING/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ARRIVE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL/RECENT
RAPID REFRESH MODEL APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON POPS FOR THIS
MRNG...SO USED THAT GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO
WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL CNVCTN MIGHT DVLP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF
THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COOL/DRY FNT. BULK
OF MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING QVECTOR CVNGC ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING
SHRTWV IMPACTING THIS AREA INTO EARLY AFTN...WHEN CNVGC BTWN LK
BREEZES OFF SUP/MI MIGHT PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR THE CNVCTN. MODIFIED
NAM FCST SDNG FOR ERY AT 18Z FOR SFC T/TD OF 73/57 YIELDS SBCAPE
NEAR 525 J/KG...SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS OVER E AND SCENTRAL
CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN. AFT 18Z...THE WINDOW FOR TS DVLPMENT
SHOULD CLOSE WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING STEADY DRYING ALF WITH
SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H6 ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS. OVER THE W...SKIES SHOULD TURN MOSUNNY WITH
ARRIVAL OF DRYING IN THE LO/MID TROP. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE
12-13C RANGE AND MIXING TO H75 ON NAM FCST SNDGS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO REACH AS HI AS THE LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W/SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK
MODERATION IN THE LLVL NW FLOW.
TNGT...WITH DRY AIR OVHD/LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT A TRANQUIL
NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMP DROP AS WINDS ARE FCST TO BE LGT
UNDER WEAK HI PRES RDG PASSING ACRS UPR MI. SOME HI CLDS MAY PUSH
INTO MAINLY THE WI BORDER COUNTIES LATE ON NRN FRINGES OF SHRTWV
MOVING INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY LATE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAINS INFLUENCED BY
TROUGHING MOST OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS RIDGE OVER CNTRL CANADA AND CNTRL CONUS
TRIES TO MAKE IT TO THE UPPER LAKES. RIDGE LOSES STEAM THOUGH AS
BY SUNDAY YET ANOTHER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WHICH
KNOCKS DOWN HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PATTERN DOES NOT
HOLD MUCH IN WAY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CWA...BUT WILL TREND AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H85 THERMAL TROUGHING AFFECTS
THE REGION. MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING OCCURS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE NORTHERLY WINDS.
UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE PRESSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH H85 WARM FRONT AND
ALL THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE OVER NEB AND IOWA...NOT CAUSING ANY
CONCERN HERE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER H7 DWPNT/RH FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CNTRL
MN AND CNTRL WI. MAYBE AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS OR SPRINKLES WITH
THE H7 MOISTURE BUT AGAIN IMPACT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THIS FAR NORTH.
EVEN FARTHER NORTH...MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE SLIDING WNW TO ESE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH WAVE AXIS NOT
COMING ACROSS UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE GEM-NH WHICH
SHOWED WAVE AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NOW
KEEPS IT ALONG AND NORTH OF NORTH SHORE OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. SO WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AFTN
COOLING PROVIDED BY LAKE BREEZES. H85 TEMPS OVER 10C INDICATE MAX
TEMPS 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AWAY FM LAKE MODIFICATION.
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SLOWER...BUT ALSO STRONGER YET. ASSOCIATED
H85 LOW STRONGER OVER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WHILE H85 RIDGE STAYS
PUT OVER MANITOBA. NORTH FLOW BTWN THE FEATURES NOW ALLOWS H85 TEMPS
TO FALL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH GFS TURNING UP CHILLY +3C AT 18Z. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH NOT AS COLD...BUT STILL HAVE TRENDED COOLER OVER LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING OVR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN SHOWING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH COLD AIR COMING IN AT LOW-LEVELS FIRST.
AT FACE VALUE...SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE/STRATIFORM LGT RAIN
FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER AND
CLOUDIER FORECAST. ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER SMALL UPSLOPE AREA OF
NCNTRL. BY MID-LATE AFTN...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING TAKE OVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY ON THURSDAY
EVENING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS /PWAT LESS THAN 50 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IF WINDS END UP LIGHTER...WILL NEED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY MENTION SOME FROST. HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALL AREAS.
MOST WARMING WILL OCCUR INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHERE TEMPS WILL
PUSH ABOVE 70 DEGREES.
BY THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO MOVES EAST...RESULTING IN
LIGHT S/SE WINDS AT THE SFC. H85 WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY THOUGH WHICH KEEPS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT WELL TO THE
SOUTH OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRIMARY SHRA/TSRA
TO BE ROAMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT SO CHANCES OF APPRECIABLE RAIN
LOOK MINIMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON
ADVECTING LEFTOVER H85-H7 MOISTURE ACROSS UPPER LAKES THOUGH SO AT
THE LEAST COULD SEE INCREASED MID CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHRA
DURING THIS TIME THOUGH. PREVIOUS RUNS OF ECMWF WERE LESS GENEROUS
WITH THE MOISTURE. SINCE ECMWF USUALLY LEADS THE WAY IN VERIFICATION
AT LONGER RANGES...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR FAR WEST CLOSER TO SFC TROUGH AND GREATER H85
MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS IDEA WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF QPF ON SATURDAY AFTN. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN ON SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SFC-H85
LOW DROPPING ACROSS AREA ON WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH JET ENERGY ALSO
INCREASING. SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING MAY BRING CHANCE OF
ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA. DO NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN GOING FOR
HIGHER POPS AND WILL JUST RUN WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS. SFC FRONT
WORKS THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
A COLD FRONT SET UP EAST OF CMX AND IWD AT 18Z WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT ESE...AND BY E OF SAW AROUND 22Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POP UP
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...WITH VCSH AT SAW /AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
TS...ALTHOUGH TOO LOW OF A POTENTIAL TO ADD TO THE TAF/. VFR
CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MINUS A
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AT
SAW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY GET SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO HELP MOISTEN THE
LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 15KT OR LESS
THRU WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WAVES WILL
BECOME CHOPPY UP TO 4 FEET. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN
RESULTS IN LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE RAIN OCCURRING ON THE LAKE IS RESULTING IN FOG OVER WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT THE FOG BY FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAST WNW FLOW ALF
WITH H3 WINDS UP TO 100KT ALONG THE CNDN BORDER BTWN CLOSED LO OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA AND UPR RDG OVER THE PLAINS. UPR MI IS DOMINATED BY
SHRTWV RDG TO THE NW OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE LOWER LKS/MID
ATLANTIC STATES...WITH WEAK HI PRES RDG BRINGING DRY WX TO UPR MI
EARLY THIS MRNG EVEN THOUGH SCT-BKN CLDS ARE IMPACTING THE AREA.
SHRTWV ON THE CYC SIDE OF 100KT H3 JET CORE IN FAST WLY FLOW ALF IS
MOVING THRU SW ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF THE CNDN BORDER AND CAUSING
SOME SHRA/A FEW TS FM THE MN ARROWHEAD TOWARD ISLE ROYALE/NW LK SUP
UNDER THE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND WELL E OF H85 COLD
FNT/DRY LINE MOVING THRU NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING JUST N OF THE MN BORDER.
TDAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SHRA/ISOLD TS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD IS
PROGGED TO DRIVE E ACRS NRN LK SUP AND INTO ONTARIO E OF THE LK THIS
AFTN. SINCE BULK OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SHIFT W-E JUST N OF UPR
MI...WHICH WILL BE ON THE ACYC SIDE OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...
SUSPECT THE BULK OF THE SHRA NOW OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WL REMAIN
JUST N OF THE LAND CWA...WITH THE SOMEWHAT HIER POPS FM ISLE ROYALE
TO THE KEWEENAW THIS MRNG BEFORE DRYING/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ARRIVE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL/RECENT
RAPID REFRESH MODEL APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON POPS FOR THIS
MRNG...SO USED THAT GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO
WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL CNVCTN MIGHT DVLP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF
THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COOL/DRY FNT. BULK
OF MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING QVECTOR CVNGC ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING
SHRTWV IMPACTING THIS AREA INTO EARLY AFTN...WHEN CNVGC BTWN LK
BREEZES OFF SUP/MI MIGHT PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR THE CNVCTN. MODIFIED
NAM FCST SDNG FOR ERY AT 18Z FOR SFC T/TD OF 73/57 YIELDS SBCAPE
NEAR 525 J/KG...SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS OVER E AND SCENTRAL
CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN. AFT 18Z...THE WINDOW FOR TS DVLPMENT
SHOULD CLOSE WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING STEADY DRYING ALF WITH
SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H6 ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS. OVER THE W...SKIES SHOULD TURN MOSUNNY WITH
ARRIVAL OF DRYING IN THE LO/MID TROP. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE
12-13C RANGE AND MIXING TO H75 ON NAM FCST SNDGS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO REACH AS HI AS THE LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W/SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK
MODERATION IN THE LLVL NW FLOW.
TNGT...WITH DRY AIR OVHD/LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT A TRANQUIL
NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMP DROP AS WINDS ARE FCST TO BE LGT
UNDER WEAK HI PRES RDG PASSING ACRS UPR MI. SOME HI CLDS MAY PUSH
INTO MAINLY THE WI BORDER COUNTIES LATE ON NRN FRINGES OF SHRTWV
MOVING INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY LATE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAINS INFLUENCED BY
TROUGHING MOST OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS RIDGE OVER CNTRL CANADA AND CNTRL CONUS
TRIES TO MAKE IT TO THE UPPER LAKES. RIDGE LOSES STEAM THOUGH AS
BY SUNDAY YET ANOTHER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WHICH
KNOCKS DOWN HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PATTERN DOES NOT
HOLD MUCH IN WAY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CWA...BUT WILL TREND AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H85 THERMAL TROUGHING AFFECTS
THE REGION. MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING OCCURS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE NORTHERLY WINDS.
UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE PRESSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH H85 WARM FRONT AND
ALL THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE OVER NEB AND IOWA...NOT CAUSING ANY
CONCERN HERE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER H7 DWPNT/RH FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CNTRL
MN AND CNTRL WI. MAYBE AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS OR SPRINKLES WITH
THE H7 MOISTURE BUT AGAIN IMPACT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THIS FAR NORTH.
EVEN FARTHER NORTH...MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE SLIDING WNW TO ESE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH WAVE AXIS NOT
COMING ACROSS UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE GEM-NH WHICH
SHOWED WAVE AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NOW
KEEPS IT ALONG AND NORTH OF NORTH SHORE OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. SO WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AFTN
COOLING PROVIDED BY LAKE BREEZES. H85 TEMPS OVER 10C INDICATE MAX
TEMPS 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AWAY FM LAKE MODIFICATION.
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SLOWER...BUT ALSO STRONGER YET. ASSOCIATED
H85 LOW STRONGER OVER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WHILE H85 RIDGE STAYS
PUT OVER MANITOBA. NORTH FLOW BTWN THE FEATURES NOW ALLOWS H85 TEMPS
TO FALL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH GFS TURNING UP CHILLY +3C AT 18Z. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH NOT AS COLD...BUT STILL HAVE TRENDED COOLER OVER LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING OVR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN SHOWING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH COLD AIR COMING IN AT LOW-LEVELS FIRST.
AT FACE VALUE...SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE/STRATIFORM LGT RAIN
FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER AND
CLOUDIER FORECAST. ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER SMALL UPSLOPE AREA OF
NCNTRL. BY MID-LATE AFTN...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING TAKE OVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY ON THURSDAY
EVENING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS /PWAT LESS THAN 50 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IF WINDS END UP LIGHTER...WILL NEED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY MENTION SOME FROST. HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALL AREAS.
MOST WARMING WILL OCCUR INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHERE TEMPS WILL
PUSH ABOVE 70 DEGREES.
BY THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO MOVES EAST...RESULTING IN
LIGHT S/SE WINDS AT THE SFC. H85 WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY THOUGH WHICH KEEPS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT WELL TO THE
SOUTH OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRIMARY SHRA/TSRA
TO BE ROAMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT SO CHANCES OF APPRECIABLE RAIN
LOOK MINIMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON
ADVECTING LEFTOVER H85-H7 MOISTURE ACROSS UPPER LAKES THOUGH SO AT
THE LEAST COULD SEE INCREASED MID CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHRA
DURING THIS TIME THOUGH. PREVIOUS RUNS OF ECMWF WERE LESS GENEROUS
WITH THE MOISTURE. SINCE ECMWF USUALLY LEADS THE WAY IN VERIFICATION
AT LONGER RANGES...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR FAR WEST CLOSER TO SFC TROUGH AND GREATER H85
MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS IDEA WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF QPF ON SATURDAY AFTN. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN ON SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SFC-H85
LOW DROPPING ACROSS AREA ON WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH JET ENERGY ALSO
INCREASING. SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING MAY BRING CHANCE OF
ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA. DO NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN GOING FOR
HIGHER POPS AND WILL JUST RUN WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS. SFC FRONT
WORKS THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
EXPECT MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FM THE NW AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING FOLLOWING COLD FROPA THAT MIGHT TRIGGER A FEW
-SHRA MAINLY AT CMX AND SAW. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO
TNGT. CONCERNED THERE COULD BE MORE PATCHY FOG OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY
AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 15KT OR LESS
THRU WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WAVES WILL
BECOME CHOPPY UP TO 4 FEET. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN
RESULTS IN LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE RAIN OCCURRING ON THE LAKE IS RESULTING IN FOG OVER WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT THE FOG BY FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAST WNW FLOW ALF
WITH H3 WINDS UP TO 100KT ALONG THE CNDN BORDER BTWN CLOSED LO OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA AND UPR RDG OVER THE PLAINS. UPR MI IS DOMINATED BY
SHRTWV RDG TO THE NW OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE LOWER LKS/MID
ATLANTIC STATES...WITH WEAK HI PRES RDG BRINGING DRY WX TO UPR MI
EARLY THIS MRNG EVEN THOUGH SCT-BKN CLDS ARE IMPACTING THE AREA.
SHRTWV ON THE CYC SIDE OF 100KT H3 JET CORE IN FAST WLY FLOW ALF IS
MOVING THRU SW ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF THE CNDN BORDER AND CAUSING
SOME SHRA/A FEW TS FM THE MN ARROWHEAD TOWARD ISLE ROYALE/NW LK SUP
UNDER THE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND WELL E OF H85 COLD
FNT/DRY LINE MOVING THRU NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING JUST N OF THE MN BORDER.
TDAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SHRA/ISOLD TS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD IS
PROGGED TO DRIVE E ACRS NRN LK SUP AND INTO ONTARIO E OF THE LK THIS
AFTN. SINCE BULK OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SHIFT W-E JUST N OF UPR
MI...WHICH WILL BE ON THE ACYC SIDE OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...
SUSPECT THE BULK OF THE SHRA NOW OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WL REMAIN
JUST N OF THE LAND CWA...WITH THE SOMEWHAT HIER POPS FM ISLE ROYALE
TO THE KEWEENAW THIS MRNG BEFORE DRYING/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ARRIVE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL/RECENT
RAPID REFRESH MODEL APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON POPS FOR THIS
MRNG...SO USED THAT GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO
WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL CNVCTN MIGHT DVLP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF
THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COOL/DRY FNT. BULK
OF MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING QVECTOR CVNGC ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING
SHRTWV IMPACTING THIS AREA INTO EARLY AFTN...WHEN CNVGC BTWN LK
BREEZES OFF SUP/MI MIGHT PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR THE CNVCTN. MODIFIED
NAM FCST SDNG FOR ERY AT 18Z FOR SFC T/TD OF 73/57 YIELDS SBCAPE
NEAR 525 J/KG...SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS OVER E AND SCENTRAL
CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN. AFT 18Z...THE WINDOW FOR TS DVLPMENT
SHOULD CLOSE WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING STEADY DRYING ALF WITH
SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H6 ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS. OVER THE W...SKIES SHOULD TURN MOSUNNY WITH
ARRIVAL OF DRYING IN THE LO/MID TROP. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE
12-13C RANGE AND MIXING TO H75 ON NAM FCST SNDGS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO REACH AS HI AS THE LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W/SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK
MODERATION IN THE LLVL NW FLOW.
TNGT...WITH DRY AIR OVHD/LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT A TRANQUIL
NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMP DROP AS WINDS ARE FCST TO BE LGT
UNDER WEAK HI PRES RDG PASSING ACRS UPR MI. SOME HI CLDS MAY PUSH
INTO MAINLY THE WI BORDER COUNTIES LATE ON NRN FRINGES OF SHRTWV
MOVING INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY LATE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAINS INFLUENCED BY
TROUGHING MOST OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS RIDGE OVER CNTRL CANADA AND CNTRL CONUS
TRIES TO MAKE IT TO THE UPPER LAKES. RIDGE LOSES STEAM THOUGH AS
BY SUNDAY YET ANOTHER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WHICH
KNOCKS DOWN HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PATTERN DOES NOT
HOLD MUCH IN WAY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CWA...BUT WILL TREND AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H85 THERMAL TROUGHING AFFECTS
THE REGION. MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING OCCURS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE NORTHERLY WINDS.
UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE PRESSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH H85 WARM FRONT AND
ALL THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE OVER NEB AND IOWA...NOT CAUSING ANY
CONCERN HERE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER H7 DWPNT/RH FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CNTRL
MN AND CNTRL WI. MAYBE AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS OR SPRINKLES WITH
THE H7 MOISTURE BUT AGAIN IMPACT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THIS FAR NORTH.
EVEN FARTHER NORTH...MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE SLIDING WNW TO ESE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH WAVE AXIS NOT
COMING ACROSS UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE GEM-NH WHICH
SHOWED WAVE AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NOW
KEEPS IT ALONG AND NORTH OF NORTH SHORE OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. SO WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AFTN
COOLING PROVIDED BY LAKE BREEZES. H85 TEMPS OVER 10C INDICATE MAX
TEMPS 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AWAY FM LAKE MODIFICATION.
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SLOWER...BUT ALSO STRONGER YET. ASSOCIATED
H85 LOW STRONGER OVER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WHILE H85 RIDGE STAYS
PUT OVER MANITOBA. NORTH FLOW BTWN THE FEATURES NOW ALLOWS H85 TEMPS
TO FALL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH GFS TURNING UP CHILLY +3C AT 18Z. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH NOT AS COLD...BUT STILL HAVE TRENDED COOLER OVER LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING OVR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN SHOWING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH COLD AIR COMING IN AT LOW-LEVELS FIRST.
AT FACE VALUE...SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE/STRATIFORM LGT RAIN
FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER AND
CLOUDIER FORECAST. ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER SMALL UPSLOPE AREA OF
NCNTRL. BY MID-LATE AFTN...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING TAKE OVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY ON THURSDAY
EVENING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS /PWAT LESS THAN 50 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IF WINDS END UP LIGHTER...WILL NEED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY MENTION SOME FROST. HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALL AREAS.
MOST WARMING WILL OCCUR INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHERE TEMPS WILL
PUSH ABOVE 70 DEGREES.
BY THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO MOVES EAST...RESULTING IN
LIGHT S/SE WINDS AT THE SFC. H85 WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY THOUGH WHICH KEEPS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT WELL TO THE
SOUTH OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRIMARY SHRA/TSRA
TO BE ROAMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT SO CHANCES OF APPRECIABLE RAIN
LOOK MINIMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON
ADVECTING LEFTOVER H85-H7 MOISTURE ACROSS UPPER LAKES THOUGH SO AT
THE LEAST COULD SEE INCREASED MID CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHRA
DURING THIS TIME THOUGH. PREVIOUS RUNS OF ECMWF WERE LESS GENEROUS
WITH THE MOISTURE. SINCE ECMWF USUALLY LEADS THE WAY IN VERIFICATION
AT LONGER RANGES...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR FAR WEST CLOSER TO SFC TROUGH AND GREATER H85
MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS IDEA WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF QPF ON SATURDAY AFTN. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN ON SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SFC-H85
LOW DROPPING ACROSS AREA ON WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH JET ENERGY ALSO
INCREASING. SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING MAY BRING CHANCE OF
ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA. DO NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN GOING FOR
HIGHER POPS AND WILL JUST RUN WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS. SFC FRONT
WORKS THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
MID-LVL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND UPSTREAM HAS ME RECONSIDERING
FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE
DECIDED TO INCLUDED MVFR VSBY FOR FOG FOR KIWD/KCMX/KSAW BUT WILL
KEEP CIGS GENERALLY VFR. DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W
MAY BRING VCNTY SHRA TO KCMX LATE TONIGHT AND TO KIWD/KSAW TUE
MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE ANY
RADIATION FOG THAT DOES FORM TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNRISE AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 15KT OR LESS
THRU WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WAVES WILL
BECOME CHOPPY UP TO 4 FEET. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN
RESULTS IN LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE RAIN OCCURRING ON THE LAKE IS RESULTING IN FOG OVER WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT THE FOG BY FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES EDGING OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. TO THE N...A WELL DEFINED
MID-LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG WRLY FLOW WAS NOTED BTWN
THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH A 110KT UPPER
JET ANALYZED BY THE RUC. THIS JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT SHIFTS THRU THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED THRU NRN ONTARIO
TODAY. TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA DEVELOPING OVER
WRN UPPER MI TODAY. SO FAR...NO THUNDER EVEN THOUGH LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE/MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 1000/500J/KG OVER THE
INTERIOR WRN UPPER MI.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA AND MAYBE YET ISOLD TSRA OVER WRN UPPER MI
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AFTER SHRA
DISSIPATE...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A TIME
TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP UNDER MID LEVEL DRYING AND
LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY WHERE SOME RAIN HAS FALLEN
THIS AFTN. LATER TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA. GIVEN
THAT SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY WITH FEATURE...IT APPEARS
CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT.
INTERESTING FCST FOR TUE WITH REGARD TO TSTM POTENTIAL. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON TIMING OF JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
FROM A LARGER SCALE STANDPOINT...THE WNW FLOW PATTERN IS ONE WHICH
OFTEN SUPPORTS SVR STORMS OVER UPPER MI. WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR TUE IS ON THE ORDER OF
60-70KT. FORTUNATELY...WITH MLCAPE UP AROUND 500J/KG FROM THE NAM
AND ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FROM THE GFS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND FORCING WILL
BE PASSING THRU EARLIER IN THE DAY AND MOSTLY LIKELY NOT IN CONCERT
WITH PEAK HEATING. THE NAM REPRESENTS THE SLOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM
ON THE PROGRESSION TUE WHILE THE GFS IS ON THE FASTER SIDE. THE GEM
OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH TIMING AND WILL BE FAVORED. PLAN WILL
BE TO CARRY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WNW TO ESE TUE.
BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL/SE WHERE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE MI WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FORCING. PRONOUNCED
MIDLEVEL DRYING SURGING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING AN END TO
SHRA/TSRA FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE W. IF FOR SOME REASON PROGRESSION IS
SLOWER TUE AND INSTABILITY BUILDS HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...
THERE MAY BE A FEW SVR STORMS TO DEAL WITH OVER THE SCNTRL/SE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR E AND SE CORNERS OF THE
CWA.
THE CURRENT LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL OPEN UP AND SWING AROUND
THE SET RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S...AND
MOVE TO SD/NE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LINE UP WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE SWINGING AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER NE CANADA ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN
WITH ALL OF THAT...UPPER MI MAY END UP DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DID ADD A JUST A FEW SHOWERS FOR FAR E UPPER MI /FIRE
ZONES/ THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB
TEMPS OFF THE ECMWF STAY AROUND 8C FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL BACK INTO THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EVEN IN THE UPPER 50S F RIGHT ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
WITH THE 500MB TROUGHS SHIFTING TO OUR E AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM TX THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...EXPECT NW FLOW TO RETURN
ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS UP IN THE AIR...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST...LINGERING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO
NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE...WITH MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
ONGOING FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EARLIER 10/00Z
RUN OF THE ECMWF AND 10/12Z RUN OF THE GFS BOTH PAINTED A GOOD
AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA...WHICH WHEN BLENDED RESULTED IN HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THEN OF COURSE THE 01/12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN MAINLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
MID-LVL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND UPSTREAM HAS ME RECONSIDERING
FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE
DECIDED TO INCLUDED MVFR VSBY FOR FOG FOR KIWD/KCMX/KSAW BUT WILL
KEEP CIGS GENERALLY VFR. DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W
MAY BRING VCNTY SHRA TO KCMX LATE TONIGHT AND TO KIWD/KSAW TUE
MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE ANY
RADIATION FOG THAT DOES FORM TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNRISE AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 15KT OR LESS THRU
THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20KT MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT/THU IN ADVANCE OF HIGH
PRES BUILDING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED
TODAY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME FOG
PATCHES OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. IF SO...FOG PATCHES WILL
SHIFT TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. THE PATCHY
FOG MAY THEN LINGER THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
831 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINING WATCH SECTION WHICH INCLUDED GOLDEN
VALLEY AND WHEATLAND. MODELS DID NOT HANDLE CLOUD COVER NOR THE
SUBTLE LOCATION OF IMPULSES TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE CONVECTION IN
SHERIDAN COUNTY. BASED ON NEWER DATA NOT AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON
PACKAGE...I DID SHIFT THE EMPHASIS OF SEVERE THREAT EASTWARD FOR
TOMORROW...MAINLY EAST OF BILLINGS. TIMING MAY BE AN ISSUE AS
BEST FORCING DOES NOT REACH JUICY EASTERN ZONES UNTIL AFTER MAX
HEATING. SO CONFIDENCE STILL NOT GREAT FOR TOMORROW
EITHER...THOUGH FORCING MUCH BETTER TOMORROW/TOMORROW EVENING.
ADDED SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WE HAVE
ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE BURN SCAR REGIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
OVERVIEW...A FETCH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT TAPPING INTO PACIFIC
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THE PACIFIC
NW COAST. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND HAS KEPT
HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER THE REGION.
SO WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NECESSARY FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAP MODEL PROGGS INDICATE AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA DOWN TO
SHERIDAN COUNTY IN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS AXIS IS WHERE I EXPECT STORMS TO REALLY FIRE UP
WITH SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS LATER TODAY. THE MAIN TRIGGER IS SOME
SUBTLE ENERGY NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO MOVING NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED
WITH A JETLET IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT ADEQUATE TO GET
THINGS GOING. MY FEELING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WITH STORMS TODAY HAS BEEN DEGRADED BY THE CLOUD COVER.
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE EASTERN ZONES NEAR THE BORDER ARE PRETTY
WELL CAPPED AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING BILLINGS...WHERE THE
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO HEAT UP MUCH YET
EITHER. SOME OF THE SREF SEVERE WEATHER INDICES ARE THUS BACKING
OFF A BIT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA. SO MY
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THEIR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS
AND PROXIMITY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THAT SAID...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH EVENING...JUST NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
ALSO...WITH OUR PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH OR MORE HEAVY
RAIN IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ACROSS OUR
AREA ARE THUS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH THE PINE CREEK BURN SCAR AND
MUSSELSHELL COUNTY BURN SCARS GENERALLY THE MOST UNDER THE GUN
THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL DRIVE A MID LEVEL FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION BY EVENING. THE MODELS HOLD MOST OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF
OUR AREA UNTIL EVENING...THEN SWEEP A STRONG WIND SHIFT OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA. INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR HAIL AND WIND THREATS
MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE.
FRIDAY...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER WITH COOL MID LEVELS
LIMITING OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR FRIDAY A BIT.
BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER
AIR FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. A
WEAKER FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM NORTHERN MONTANA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
HOWEVER...NOT MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT AND GIVEN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW...NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY UNDERCUT THIS RIDGE RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER UPPER LOW ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BRINGING AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING RETURNED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN ROUTES OVERNIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM KSHR TO SOUTH OF EKALAKA. EXPECT MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG
IN LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR KSHR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM A KMLS TO KSHR LINE WEST BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/083 052/072 048/078 051/079 052/080 055/085 052/077
42/T 63/T 10/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
LVM 049/078 043/066 043/078 043/079 045/081 046/084 049/075
54/T 54/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 056/085 052/073 048/078 050/080 051/080 056/088 052/081
32/T 63/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
MLS 057/085 055/074 051/078 053/079 053/078 055/084 057/082
32/T 83/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 054/089 054/073 049/078 050/080 051/079 055/087 055/087
42/T 52/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
BHK 053/079 056/072 049/076 050/075 050/075 054/080 058/079
22/T 52/W 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
SHR 052/086 050/072 044/078 047/078 049/079 053/086 050/085
82/T 52/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ZONES 29-31-34-36>38-42-57-58-64-65-67.
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONE
99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
655 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND REMOVE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
OVERVIEW...A FETCH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT TAPPING INTO PACIFIC
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THE PACIFIC
NW COAST. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND HAS KEPT
HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER THE REGION.
SO WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NECESSARY FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAP MODEL PROGGS INDICATE AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA DOWN TO
SHERIDAN COUNTY IN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS AXIS IS WHERE I EXPECT STORMS TO REALLY FIRE UP
WITH SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS LATER TODAY. THE MAIN TRIGGER IS SOME
SUBTLE ENERGY NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO MOVING NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED
WITH A JETLET IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT ADEQUATE TO GET
THINGS GOING. MY FEELING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WITH STORMS TODAY HAS BEEN DEGRADED BY THE CLOUD COVER.
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE EASTERN ZONES NEAR THE BORDER ARE PRETTY
WELL CAPPED AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING BILLINGS...WHERE THE
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO HEAT UP MUCH YET
EITHER. SOME OF THE SREF SEVERE WEATHER INDICES ARE THUS BACKING
OFF A BIT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA. SO MY
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THEIR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS
AND PROXIMITY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THAT SAID...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH EVENING...JUST NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
ALSO...WITH OUR PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH OR MORE HEAVY
RAIN IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ACROSS OUR
AREA ARE THUS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH THE PINE CREEK BURN SCAR AND
MUSSELSHELL COUNTY BURN SCARS GENERALLY THE MOST UNDER THE GUN
THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL DRIVE A MID LEVEL FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION BY EVENING. THE MODELS HOLD MOST OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF
OUR AREA UNTIL EVENING...THEN SWEEP A STRONG WIND SHIFT OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA. INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR HAIL AND WIND THREATS
MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE.
FRIDAY...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER WITH COOL MID LEVELS
LIMITING OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR FRIDAY A BIT.
BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER
AIR FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. A
WEAKER FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM NORTHERN MONTANA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
HOWEVER...NOT MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT AND GIVEN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW...NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY UNDERCUT THIS RIDGE RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER UPPER LOW ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BRINGING AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING RETURNED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-BILLINGS-SHERIDAN
LINE WITH THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EAST OF THIS LINE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50KTS. EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/083 052/072 048/078 051/079 052/080 055/085 052/077
42/T 63/T 10/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
LVM 049/078 043/066 043/078 043/079 045/081 046/084 049/075
54/T 54/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 056/085 052/073 048/078 050/080 051/080 056/088 052/081
32/T 63/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
MLS 057/085 055/074 051/078 053/079 053/078 055/084 057/082
32/T 83/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 054/089 054/073 049/078 050/080 051/079 055/087 055/087
42/T 52/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
BHK 053/079 056/072 049/076 050/075 050/075 054/080 058/079
22/T 52/W 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
SHR 052/086 050/072 044/078 047/078 049/079 053/086 050/085
82/T 52/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 28-42-63-68.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 29-31-34-36>38-42-57-58-64-65-67.
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
537 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013
.UPDATE...
OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES
IS DECREASING. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS SHOWERS FROM
THE SOUTH OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING APPROACH THE REGION. WE
MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE WATCH EARLY OVER OUR AREA. FURTHER SOUTH
THOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS ALONG AN UPPER JETLET ARE PRODUCING SOME
STRONG STORMS OVER NORTHERN WYOMING AND MAY IMPACT SHERIDAN AND SE
MONTANA YET THIS EVENING. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
OVERVIEW...A FETCH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT TAPPING INTO PACIFIC
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THE PACIFIC
NW COAST. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND HAS KEPT
HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER THE REGION.
SO WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NECESSARY FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAP MODEL PROGGS INDICATE AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA DOWN TO
SHERIDAN COUNTY IN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS AXIS IS WHERE I EXPECT STORMS TO REALLY FIRE UP
WITH SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS LATER TODAY. THE MAIN TRIGGER IS SOME
SUBTLE ENERGY NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO MOVING NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED
WITH A JETLET IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT ADEQUATE TO GET
THINGS GOING. MY FEELING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WITH STORMS TODAY HAS BEEN DEGRADED BY THE CLOUD COVER.
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE EASTERN ZONES NEAR THE BORDER ARE PRETTY
WELL CAPPED AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING BILLINGS...WHERE THE
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO HEAT UP MUCH YET
EITHER. SOME OF THE SREF SEVERE WEATHER INDICES ARE THUS BACKING
OFF A BIT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA. SO MY
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THEIR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS
AND PROXIMITY TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THAT SAID...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH EVENING...JUST NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
ALSO...WITH OUR PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH OR MORE HEAVY
RAIN IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ACROSS OUR
AREA ARE THUS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH THE PINE CREEK BURN SCAR AND
MUSSELSHELL COUNTY BURN SCARS GENERALLY THE MOST UNDER THE GUN
THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL DRIVE A MID LEVEL FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION BY EVENING. THE MODELS HOLD MOST OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF
OUR AREA UNTIL EVENING...THEN SWEEP A STRONG WIND SHIFT OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA. INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR HAIL AND WIND THREATS
MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE.
FRIDAY...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER WITH COOL MID LEVELS
LIMITING OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR FRIDAY A BIT.
BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER
AIR FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. A
WEAKER FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM NORTHERN MONTANA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
HOWEVER...NOT MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT AND GIVEN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW...NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY UNDERCUT THIS RIDGE RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER UPPER LOW ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BRINGING AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING RETURNED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-BILLINGS-SHERIDAN
LINE WITH THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EAST OF THIS LINE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50KTS. EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/083 052/072 048/078 051/079 052/080 055/085 052/077
42/T 63/T 10/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
LVM 049/078 043/066 043/078 043/079 045/081 046/084 049/075
64/T 54/T 20/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 056/085 052/073 048/078 050/080 051/080 056/088 052/081
42/T 63/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
MLS 057/085 055/074 051/078 053/079 053/078 055/084 057/082
32/T 83/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 054/089 054/073 049/078 050/080 051/079 055/087 055/087
32/T 52/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
BHK 053/079 056/072 049/076 050/075 050/075 054/080 058/079
22/T 52/W 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
SHR 052/086 050/072 044/078 047/078 049/079 053/086 050/085
52/T 52/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 28-34-40>42-63>68.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 29-31-34-36>38-42-57-58-64-65-67.
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2013
UPDATE TO AVIATION
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Southwest flow aloft continues to bring moisture
and instability across southwest Montana. With the airmass
destabilizing during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms have,
and continue, to develop over the southwest mountains and then track
north and east. The models, with HRRR corroboration, indicate the
area of precipitation after midnight should reach along a Helena to
Great Falls to Lewistown line. However, the 00z Nam is backing off a
bit on the areal coverage of the precipitation. Temperatures look
reasonable and should be warmer than last night due to more clouds.
Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 0500Z.
VFR conditions will mostly continue across the area through at least
Tuesday evening, unless otherwise noted below. A moist southwest
flow aloft will keep areas of mid and high level clouds across the
area through 12Z with isolated showers/thunderstorms south of a KHLN
to KLWT line. A disturbance in this flow aloft will move across the
area between 11/12Z and 12/00Z to bring more widespread showers to
the area, mainly between 11/18Z and 12/00Z, with some areas
receiving MVFR ceilings. The airmass will also become unstable after
18Z along and south of a KGTF to KLWT line, causing scattered
thunderstorms to develop as well. Hail and gusty winds will be the
main threats. Showers/storms will decrease after 00Z as the
disturbance begins exiting the area. Coulston
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 303 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2013
Tonight through Thursday...Upper level low poised off the coast
of BC along with a weaker low over CA will dominate the weather
pattern tonight and Tuesday. The current zonal flow over MT will
give way to SW flow as a upper level ridge builds over the area
and remains in place through the period. Will continue to see a
chance of thunderstorms over the SW tonight. This is due to the
northern shield of monsoonal-type moisture brought northward by
the CA low. By tonight the low over CA gets caught up in the upper
level SW flow and moves over the ID/MT/WY area and pumps more
moisture over the area. Thus increased pops over much of the area
from Beaverhead to Fergus Counties. By Tuesday late morning this
area expands northward over much of the area...and have increased
pops for much of SW and central MT. Expect a continued threat of
thunderstorms through the period. By Thursday the threat of severe
thunderstorms is greatest over eastern portions of the area as MU
cape is over 3500 J/Kg over Fergus and BLAINE Counties. Potential
heavy rain...large hail...and damaging winds are possible Thursday
late morning into the early afternoon. Temperatures should be near
normal through Wednesday and slightly cooler on Thursday. Mercer
Thursday night through Tuesday...Models in good agreement with
unstable southwest flow over the region into Friday. With unstable
air and enhanced dynamics, showers and scattered thunderstorms are
possible through the long term. Precipitation details vary but most
of Central Montana has a fair chance of seeing some rain. Periods of
heavier precipitation look possible later in the day on Wednesday
and Thursday. Thursday a major trough will move in over the
Continental Divide with minor secondary troughs moving into Montana
from the southwest. A cold front associated with the system will
move through Montana Thursday further enhancing any convective
activity that day. Models remain in good agreement with lifting the
trough to the northeast into Southern Canada early Saturday. Weak
high pressure looks build back in from the southeast for Sunday and
Monday. A slightly cooler air mass will be over the region keeping
temperatures around low seasonal average through the week before
warming by next weekend. Winds also look to remain mostly light with
Friday possibly being a windy day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The areal flood warning for Hill, Blaine, and Fergus Counties has
been canceled as has the point forecast for the Milk River near
Harlem. A flood warning continues for the Big Sandy Creek near
Havre and Clear Creek near Chinook. The latest river forecasts
continue to show a slow decrease during the first half of this
week. However, thunderstorms, some possibly with locally heavy
rainfall, are in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday and may
affect already swollen rivers and streams.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 70 48 71 / 30 70 60 50
CTB 44 67 45 70 / 10 50 50 40
HLN 50 75 48 74 / 40 70 60 50
BZN 46 76 44 75 / 50 80 60 50
WEY 41 72 37 70 / 50 70 50 40
DLN 49 76 46 73 / 60 70 50 40
HVR 48 69 49 75 / 10 70 60 60
LWT 48 68 46 72 / 50 70 60 60
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning until further notice for Big Sandy Creek near Havre,
Clear Creek near Chinook.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
408 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION AND CUT INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO STEER A WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RETURNING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.
IN THE MEANTIME...ALREADY SEEING A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP FOR SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...SOME OF
WHICH IS CAPTURED BY LATEST HRRR AND 12Z WRF. EVEN SO...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SEVERE OR OTHERWISE...IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA WILL
BE NEAR THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND IN THE AXIS OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. SO WHILE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOCUSED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO SHIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT...WHERE A FEW OF OUR COUNTIES ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY NICE...BUT BREEZY DAY...ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AS SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOONS
VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
ALOFT: GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON THE LONG-WAVE /LGWV/ FLOW THRU THE FCST PERIOD AND EVEN THRU DAY
10 /JUN 20TH/. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS WITH TROFS ON BOTH COASTS. THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY MILLING
AROUND OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GET SLOWLY KICKED INTO THE PAC NW
WED-THU AND KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE FRI-SAT BEFORE EMERGING INTO AND
DEEPENING THE ERN USA TROF. THIS WILL FORCE THE RIDGE TO RETROGRADE
INTO THE ROCKIES AS IT REBUILDS. THE INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE RIDGE WILL ADVANCE BACK INTO THE PLAINS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT NE PAC LOW MOVES ONSHORE.
SFC: THE COOL FRONT MOVES THRU WED WILL SINK TO THE KS-OK BORDER BY
DAWN THU...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING S INTO THE REGION. THE
ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW AND THE PV ANOMALIES ORBITING IT WILL
INITIATE A NEW LEE LOW THU NGT...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK N. THIS
WILL SPREAD THE 90+ HEAT BACK N INTO S-CNTRL NEB FRI. THE COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING PAC NW UPR LOW WILL ARRIVE HERE FRI
NGT AND WASH OUT. AS THE REMNANTS OF UPR LOW DROP INTO THE ERN USA
TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MUCH STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SUN
NGT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
THU: QUIET WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. COULD SEE AN EVNG SHWR/TSTM
DRIFT IN FROM NW KS OR WRN NEB.
THU NGT: COULD SEE AN MCS ROLL THRU HERE OR NEARBY AS LLJ PUNCHES
OVER THE LIFTING WARM FRONT.
FRI: HOT AND BREEZY IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF AN MCS OCCURS IT WILL
REINFORCE AND SLOW OR STALL THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS COULD BUST IF
COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGER. THE WARM FRONT COULD ALSO BE A FOCUS
FOR RENEWED LATE DAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
FRI NGT: STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH PASSAGE OF COOL FRONT. THIS COULD
BE A DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR TSTMS WHERE PARCELS CAN REACH THE LFC.
SAT-SUN: NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY MOST OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS EACH DAY...HIGHEST PROBABILITY BETWEEN
4PM-4AM. AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED/
WIDESPREAD TSTMS WILL BE SUN AFTN-NGT.
MON: PROBABLY ENDS UP DRY AS AMPLIFYING ERN USA TROF WILL TAKE THE
COOL FRONT FARTHER S THAN ITS PREDECESSORS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND FOR
PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 19Z.
WHILE SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW...AND DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY
ACTIVITY INTO THE 18Z TAF. THEREFORE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO BACK AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR 10-12KTS EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...SAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN
CONTINUED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM SOUTH WESTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHWEST
KANSAS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SFC DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO POOL
INTO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE BOUNDARY GENERATING QUITE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAS REALLY LIMITED MAX HEATING
POTENTIAL. NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE PRODUCING MODELS CONTINUE THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING IT EAST LATER THIS
EVENING.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AND ROLL EAST AS AN
MCS OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
ROLL OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MARCHES EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SFC BOUNDARY PROGGED TO
EXTEND OVER THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AS ANY
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW COULD SPAWN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LOOK POSSIBLE INTO DAY 7 AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING TO
OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WAS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS BEEN REINFORCED SOUTH OF LINCOLN BY EARLIER OUTFLOW
FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT A SWATH OF HEAT BURST
CONDITIONS THROUGH LINCOLN AND TOWARD NEBR CITY. ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUED TO BUBBLE THROUGH 17Z NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND IT COULD
PERSIST WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF LATEST HRRR WOULD
VERIFY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO THINK ACTIVITY WILL
WANE AS HOT/DRIER AIR MIXES INTO ELEVATED LAYER AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DECREASES. THUS ONLY CARRIED A FEW HOURS OF VCTS AT
KLNK AND VCSH AT KOMA. BUT A CONTINUED MONITORING OF CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WIND SHEAR WAS MENTIONED AT
KLNK AND KOMA AND A CHC OF TSTMS WAS MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES AS
ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST.
AN UPPER WAVE AND MCS THAT CROSS PLAINS TONIGHT WILL DRIVE A WIND
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER
CIGS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
302 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING...AS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS...NORTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THE RIDGE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A CLOSED LOW NOTED
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 18Z HAS THE NRN
NEVADA SHORTWAVE...ENTERING FAR SWRN WYOMING. LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN MT AND NWRN WYOMING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL WYOMING...SE INTO NRN COLORADO...THEN EAST
INTO SRN NEBRASKA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES
HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WERE IN 80S. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WAS
PRESENT NORTH OF THE FRONT AND HAS PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST DEW
POINTS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AS OF 2 PM CDT DEW
POINTS...RANGED FROM 63 AT PINE RIDGE...TO 68 AT ONEILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. TOWARD 00Z THIS
EVENING...A DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE WITH TSRA
INITIATION DURING THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THE HI RES RUC...AS
WELL AS THE 12Z NAM SOLN...DEVELOPS ISOLD TSRAS IN THE NERN
PANHANDLE...AND SWRN NEBRASKA AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IN
THE SWRN CWA SHEARS OFF AND DISSIPATES QUICKLY BY 01Z. FURTHER
NORTH...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT AND DEEPER...RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY THIS EVENING. A TORNADO THREAT
WILL EXIST INITIALLY IN THE NWRN CWA WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...LOWERED LCL HTS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND 4KM WRF
SOLNS...SHERIDAN...AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK
OF SEEING A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...AND THUS THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DECREASE BY MID EVENING
AS A STRONG FAST MOVING MCS DEVELOPS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND RACES
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THIS WILL BE ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS. AS THE MCS TRACKS INTO SRN MN/NRN IA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NERN
NEBRASKA FOR WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PUSH INTO NERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 90.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM
FORECASTS. HEAT TO HANG AROUND WITH SUMMER BEGINNING EARLY. STRONG
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN INTO NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP JET STREAM WELL
NORTH. H5 SYSTEMS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRY TO
FLATTEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS BUT MAIN ENERGY WILL BE PUSHED
TO THE CANADIAN US BORDER WITH WEAKER WAVES MOVING UNDER THE
RIDGE. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY INCREASING LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN. NAM HAS BEEN
HANDLING HEAT FAR BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS AS OF LATE AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS NAM SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
CLEARING HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 15C
850MB TEMPERATURES OVER HEAD. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW AND WAVE
MOVING THROUGH HAVE RETAINED POPS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO WARM UP INTO
THE 90S ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA NEAR IMPERIAL. 850MB TEMPS 30C AND GREATER ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY LYING
ACROSS FORECAST AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES AT 700MB INDICATIVE OF
STRONG CAP AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE REDUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.
EVEN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BEHIND FRONT BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAVE RETAINED THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS SYSTEM DROPS OUT
OF CANADA ACROSS MINNESOTA. BETTER CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR
THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AON 10000 FT
AGL TO APPROACH SWRN NEBRASKA FROM 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY SPARSE...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE 18Z KLBF TAF ISSUANCE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN SD AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK EAST THIS EVENING. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE KVTN TERMINAL DURING THE 01Z TO 06Z TIME
FRAME THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAY GUST UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1207 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WAS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS BEEN REINFORCED SOUTH OF LINCOLN BY EARLIER OUTFLOW
FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT A SWATH OF HEAT BURST
CONDITIONS THROUGH LINCOLN AND TOWARD NEBR CITY. ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUED TO BUBBLE THROUGH 17Z NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND IT COULD
PERSIST WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF LATEST HRRR WOULD
VERIFY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO THINK ACTIVITY WILL
WANE AS HOT/DRIER AIR MIXES INTO ELEVATED LAYER AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DECREASES. THUS ONLY CARRIED A FEW HOURS OF VCTS AT
KLNK AND VCSH AT KOMA. BUT A CONTINUED MONITORING OF CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WIND SHEAR WAS MENTIONED AT
KLNK AND KOMA AND A CHC OF TSTMS WAS MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES AS
ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST.
AN UPPER WAVE AND MCS THAT CROSS PLAINS TONIGHT WILL DRIVE A WIND
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER
CIGS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AT 07Z WITH AN AREA
OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BIG QUESTION TODAY
WILL BE HOW HOT WILL IT GET IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHILE MOS TOPS OUT IN THE UPPER 90S.
00Z MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON CURRENT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LAST EVENING BUT HRRR HAS TRENDED TOWARD
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE COMPLEX THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN PLACING THE WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON
THEN STALLING THERE WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A BIT
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SLIDING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO COVER THAT POSSIBLE EVENT.
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS PROBLEMATIC WITH MODELS SHOWING NUMEROUS
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AND TRIGGERING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES PROVIDE LIMITED CONFIDENCE TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
613 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THIN BY 18Z WHEN SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL05 DEVELOP. A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL TURN WINDS
TO THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25KT AT KLNK AND KOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY 06Z AND AFTER. AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...NORTH WINDS
MAY BRING MVFR CIGS INTO KOFK BEFORE 12Z.
DERGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AT 07Z WITH AN AREA
OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BIG QUESTION TODAY
WILL BE HOW HOT WILL IT GET IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHILE MOS TOPS OUT IN THE UPPER 90S.
00Z MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON CURRENT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LAST EVENING BUT HRRR HAS TRENDED TOWARD
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE COMPLEX THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN PLACING THE WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON
THEN STALLING THERE WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A BIT
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SLIDING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO COVER THAT POSSIBLE EVENT.
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS PROBLEMATIC WITH MODELS SHOWING NUMEROUS
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AND TRIGGERING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES PROVIDE LIMITED CONFIDENCE TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AT 07Z WITH AN AREA
OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BIG QUESTION TODAY
WILL BE HOW HOT WILL IT GET IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHILE MOS TOPS OUT IN THE UPPER 90S.
00Z MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON CURRENT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LAST EVENING BUT HRRR HAS TRENDED TOWARD
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE COMPLEX THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN PLACING THE WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON
THEN STALLING THERE WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A BIT
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SLIDING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO COVER THAT POSSIBLE EVENT.
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS PROBLEMATIC WITH MODELS SHOWING NUMEROUS
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AND TRIGGERING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES PROVIDE LIMITED CONFIDENCE TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO GOING TAFS. STILL EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO SETTLE IN THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINATES BTWN 09Z-
13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. DID INCLUDE LLWS MENTION AT
KLNK THRU ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LLVL JET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
933 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR LATE EVENING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
PECOS CANYON AREA FROM GLORIETA TO COWLES EWD GIVEN THE SCT
CONVECTION SPROUTING UP RAPIDLY OVER AND NEAR THE TRES LAGUNAS
FIRE. ALSO INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SANDIA AND MANZANO MTNS ZONE WEST INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
TORRANCE COUNTY CONTINUES TO SHOW SINGS OF PRODUCING A STORM OR
TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DEWPOINTS RISE RAPIDLY AND
WINDS BECOME E-SE.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...539 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLVS THIS EVENING...THEN AT
KABQ...KSAF AND KLVS THURSDAY EVENING. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SURFACE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 28KTS.
11
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. TEMPS ARE NOT AS QUICK TO RISE
TODAY THANKS TO A LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AND
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE BUBBLING OF CU EXTENDING FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS SOUTHWARD TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE THE
FAVORED AREA FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS...VIRGA AND/OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE HRRR AND THE NAM WERE SHOWING A BIT OF QPF
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY
BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP ONTO THE RATON RIDGE. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...IF NOT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. RECORD
HEAT FOR THURSDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO WILL
RESULT IN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG INVERTED-V SIGNATURES UP TO ROUGHLY 500 MB
SUGGESTING CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FURTHER EAST...A POCKET
OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIMIT SHOWER AND T-STORM POTENTIAL...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...SOME CHANCE WILL EXIST IN THE
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT.
THOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OVER SE NM AND WEST TEXAS...SELY
FLOW WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE BACK TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND PERHAPS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN THE ADDED MOISTURE..PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOLING AT
MID LEVELS...AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AT MID LEVELS BETWEEN THE
SELY FLOW ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THE LOW...AND WSW FLOW AT
MID LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE NW
TROUGH...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST...WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. HOWEVER...A
CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...ON THE
FRINGES OF THE BETTER MOISTURE. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS...WITH THE
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
MOISTURE WILL RECYCLE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS WEST TEXAS. THEN MORE
WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ON SUNDAY...AND
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN PLUMMETS. TEMPS WILL ALSO JUMP BACK UP A FEW
DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IT MAY OR MAY NOT BRING TO THE
EAST. AFTER WHICH...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER TEXAS.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD INITIALLY BEFORE FOLLOWING A MORE NELY TRAJECTORY BY
WEEK/S END. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
END TO OUR RECORD-SETTING HEAT AS WELL AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR MANY AREAS TOMORROW BUT A TREND TOWARD WETTER STORMS
IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
THERE WILL STILL BE A PRONOUNCED WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT THE SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
PRIMARY HIGH CENTER WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT THAT COMBINED
WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
MID-LEVELS DOWN WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH A
TREND TOWARD ISOLATED MIXED WET/DRY STORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE OTHER CONCERN ON THURSDAY
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE HERE BUT WITH A
SLIGHTLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HAVE TRENDED DRIER THAN THE GFS BUT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NAM THAT IS BY FAR THE DRIEST. THE END RESULT
COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 103-- ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. LEFT THIS AREA OUT OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING GIVEN LIMITED IMPACT.
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS BRUTAL AS THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS BUT STILL FAIR TO POOR FOR WESTERN AREAS AND THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH. MIN RH VALUES ON THURSDAY WILL BE TRENDING
UPWARD WITH SINGLE DIGIT READINGS CONFINED TO LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST
OF THE DIVIDE.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE PASSING OVER OR VERY
NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT....THOUGH MODELS DIFFER
WHEN IT MAKES ITS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. TRENDED DEW POINTS UPWARD
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS AND COULD SEE DECENT WETTING
RAIN POTENTIAL AT NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EC/SE PLAINS NEARER
THE LOW/S CORE. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE AMONG THE
MORE ACTIVE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES WITH DRIER AIR BECOMING PREDOMINATE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ALONG WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST.
KJ
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU. MODERATE
SFC WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25 KTS BUT SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE SMOKE IMPACTS
TO KSAF LATER TONIGHT WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH TRANSPORT WINDS GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
-SHRA AND -TSRA ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20Z AND 04Z.
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLVS THIS EVENING...THEN AT
KABQ...KSAF AND KLVS THURSDAY EVENING. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SURFACE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 28KTS.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. TEMPS ARE NOT AS QUICK TO RISE
TODAY THANKS TO A LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AND
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE BUBBLING OF CU EXTENDING FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS SOUTHWARD TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE THE
FAVORED AREA FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS...VIRGA AND/OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE HRRR AND THE NAM WERE SHOWING A BIT OF QPF
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY
BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP ONTO THE RATON RIDGE. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...IF NOT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. RECORD
HEAT FOR THURSDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO WILL
RESULT IN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG INVERTED-V SIGNATURES UP TO ROUGHLY 500 MB
SUGGESTING CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FURTHER EAST...A POCKET
OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIMIT SHOWER AND T-STORM POTENTIAL...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...SOME CHANCE WILL EXIST IN THE
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT.
THOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OVER SE NM AND WEST TEXAS...SELY
FLOW WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE BACK TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND PERHAPS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN THE ADDED MOISTURE..PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOLING AT
MID LEVELS...AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AT MID LEVELS BETWEEN THE
SELY FLOW ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THE LOW...AND WSW FLOW AT
MID LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE NW
TROUGH...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST...WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. HOWEVER...A
CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...ON THE
FRINGES OF THE BETTER MOISTURE. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS...WITH THE
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
MOISTURE WILL RECYCLE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS WEST TEXAS. THEN MORE
WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ON SUNDAY...AND
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN PLUMMETS. TEMPS WILL ALSO JUMP BACK UP A FEW
DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IT MAY OR MAY NOT BRING TO THE
EAST. AFTER WHICH...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER TEXAS.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD INITIALLY BEFORE FOLLOWING A MORE NELY TRAJECTORY BY
WEEK/S END. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
END TO OUR RECORD-SETTING HEAT AS WELL AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR MANY AREAS TOMORROW BUT A TREND TOWARD WETTER STORMS
IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
THERE WILL STILL BE A PRONOUNCED WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT THE SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
PRIMARY HIGH CENTER WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT THAT COMBINED
WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
MID-LEVELS DOWN WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH A
TREND TOWARD ISOLATED MIXED WET/DRY STORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE OTHER CONCERN ON THURSDAY
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE HERE BUT WITH A
SLIGHTLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HAVE TRENDED DRIER THAN THE GFS BUT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NAM THAT IS BY FAR THE DRIEST. THE END RESULT
COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 103-- ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. LEFT THIS AREA OUT OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING GIVEN LIMITED IMPACT.
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS BRUTAL AS THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS BUT STILL FAIR TO POOR FOR WESTERN AREAS AND THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH. MIN RH VALUES ON THURSDAY WILL BE TRENDING
UPWARD WITH SINGLE DIGIT READINGS CONFINED TO LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST
OF THE DIVIDE.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE PASSING OVER OR VERY
NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT....THOUGH MODELS DIFFER
WHEN IT MAKES ITS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. TRENDED DEW POINTS UPWARD
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS AND COULD SEE DECENT WETTING
RAIN POTENTIAL AT NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EC/SE PLAINS NEARER
THE LOW/S CORE. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE AMONG THE
MORE ACTIVE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES WITH DRIER AIR BECOMING PREDOMINATE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ALONG WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST.
KJ
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU. MODERATE
SFC WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25 KTS BUT SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE SMOKE IMPACTS
TO KSAF LATER TONIGHT WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH TRANSPORT WINDS GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
-SHRA AND -TSRA ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20Z AND 04Z.
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
755 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A SINGLE DAY OF FULL SUNSHINE...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DETERIORATE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL
NOW GIVE WAY TO THE EFFECTS OF A WARM FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVE TO BE A DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR SITES
ACROSS THE MID WEST AND PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...BUT
FAIRLY STABLE AIR OVER THE BULK OF OUR AREA WILL PREVENT US FROM
EXPERIENCING ANYTHING MORE THAN SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN TIER. THE DETAILS...
A GROWING AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID WEST
THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM CHICAGO TO ABOUT CLEVELAND AND PITTSBURGH. IN THE
PROCESS...A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS FOUND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S ARE PROMOTING MLCAPES OF 2500-4000 J/KG WITH EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60KTS. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MID-WEST...BUT FOR OUR REGION...
WE ARE STILL WELL ENTRENCHED IN A STABLE AIRMASS WITH NO REAL CAPE
TO SPEAK OF.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID WEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL TAKE
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH EARLIER 12 AND 18Z
MAINSTREAM GUIDANCE PACKAGES...ALONG WITH ONGOING HRRR AND RUC
SIMULATIONS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE SRN
TIER THIS EVENING TO INCREASE TO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT WHILE POPS WILL
CREEP UP TO LOW CHC FROM BUF TO ROC SOUTHWARD TO THE START OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE COMPLEX TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL CATCH UP TO THE FEATURE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. BY THIS TIME...THE COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH ONLY A MODEST NORTHWARD SPREAD OF
SHOWERS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON ITS OWN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER...WITH THESE LIKELY TO
DROP OFF RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. THERE STILL IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE HEAVY
RAINS WILL MAKE IT INTO NEW YORK IF SOME OF THE OUTLIER MODEL
GUIDANCE VERIFIES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOULD HELP FINE-TUNE THE
FORECAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT
SOME OF OUR BASINS DO EXTEND INTO FAR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. MMEFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW LOW CHANCES FOR FLOODING ON THE ALLEGHENY AT OLEAN
AND THE GENESEE AT WELLSVILLE...MAINLY DUE TO UPSTREAM RAINS. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS WELL BELOW WATCH THRESHOLD...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY MODESTLY OVERNIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT MOVE IN
UNTIL LATER. ON THURSDAY...HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY THURSDAY EVENING THE STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE REACHING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...CARRYING ANY
SHOWERS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES IN THE EVENING AND WILL EVENTUALLY
PHASE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL BE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND CLOSER TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF
A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION...BUT THEY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN NATURE.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SECOND WAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LEFTOVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY AND CLEAR
WEATHER...AND ALSO DELIVER A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER 50S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND 40S IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. AFTER A COOL START...SATURDAY WILL WARM NICELY UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9C. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
LOWS A LITTLE MORE MILD THAN FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
NATION. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY...
AS BOTH MOVE THE FIRST SHORTWAVE INTO THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE
DAY. THIS MAY TOUCH OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SPARSE. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE AS THE
ECMWF HANGS ONTO MORE OF A TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND PUSHES THE TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY
WITH A LOW CHANCE ON TUESDAY THEN DRY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT IS REACHED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A WARMER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST. IF
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL BACK TO
AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
SRN TIER WHERE AN INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS...AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS (AFT 08Z) COULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
EVEN BE IFR CIGS FOR SITES SUCH AS KJHW AND KELZ TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT ITS
NORTHERN EXTENT WILL LIKELY MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SRN TIER AND POSSIBLY THE FINGER LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP IFR TO MVFR CIGS IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD KEEP THEIR VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WITH WINDS INITIALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE
EAST...THEN BACKING TO NORTH DURING THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT
STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES MAY INCREASE JUST ENOUGH TO
EVENTUALLY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
AND LAKE ERIE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...AR/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
949 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERCAST AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...TRAVERSING THE
FRONTAL ZONE TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG. NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 949 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE AND
LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP AT THE SUMMITS IN THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY AT RATES OF 0.10-0.15" PER HOUR. NARROW DRY
SLOT LIFTS NORTH IN ADVANCE OF ELONGATED UPPER LOW...LOCATED
ACROSS WRN NY/PA AT 11Z THIS MORNING. THIS MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD
ALLOW RAINFALL RATES TO TAPER OFF A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL/CHAMPLAIN VLY OF VT. AVAILABLE LOCAL WRF RUNS AS
WELL AS HRRR AND 00/06Z NAM INDICATE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL VT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN
18-22Z. LOWER STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM...SO OVERCAST AREAWIDE
TODAY. THEREAFTER...RAINFALL INTENSIFIES AGAIN WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALOFT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS UNTIL SELY GRADIENT FLOW SLACKENS
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ELONGATED UPR TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SERN ONTARIO SWD INTO ERN
OHIO...MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO NY AT 07Z. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL PA TO SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. GOOD
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN REGIONAL VAD DATA INDICATIVE OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ONGOING FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND
NWD ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES BY 12Z ON SLY 850MB FLOW OF 20-25 KTS; EXPECTED PW
VALUES ARE ABOUT 175-185% OF NORMAL. THE 00Z ALB SOUNDING HAD AN
OBSERVED PW OF 1.73 INCHES SO GFS/NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS IN LINE.
THE SFC LOW AND UPR TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AND
TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTN. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW CENTER...WHICH MAY
REACH INTO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES 09-12Z. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS LESSENING AND IT APPEARS THE
THREAT FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT NARROW WINDOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
GOOD NEWS FOR MITIGATING ANY FLOOD THREAT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S EARLY THIS AM AND WILL ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW 60S FOR AFTN HIGHS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SE
5-10 MPH...BUT LOCALLY NELY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE IMMEDIATE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
RAINFALL: FOR THE 18-HR PERIOD 06Z TUE THRU 00Z WED (8PM THIS
EVENING)...LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1" AREAWIDE...AND
LOCALLY UP TO 1.25" ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
RATES IN THIS EVENT WILL BE STEADY AND PROLONGED...AND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE OR FIELD
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EDT TUESDAY...SFC LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY
OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AT 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO COASTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WWD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS
MAINTAINED 06-12Z PERIOD. ALOFT...500MB LOW BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS
IT MOVES EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN VT AND QUEBEC.
INDICATIONS ARE A WWD EXTENDING DEFORMATION AXIS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER 00Z GFS/NAM SOLNS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50"...HIGHEST OVER THE NRN GREEN MTNS INTO
THE NE KINGDOM. WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST AND PATCHY FOG...TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL MUCH AND LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MID-UPR
50S AREAWIDE.
WEDNESDAY...VERTICAL STACKED LOW PULLS AWAY NEAR/SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD SEE SFC WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE N-NW AT 10-15 MPH. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED...BUT NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK SBCAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN HRS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER WITH VALLEY HIGHS AROUND 70.
WEAK RIDGE BY DEFAULT ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. IT APPEARS A WINDOW OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE.
SATURATED GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS LOOK IDEAL FOR
NOCTURNAL FOG AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE GRIDS 04-12Z THURSDAY.
THURSDAY FEATURES A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING RAPIDLY FROM THE UPR OHIO RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE NJ COAST AROUND 00Z FRIDAY PER GFS SOLN.
SFC LOW DEEPENS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 00Z GFS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ON LOW TRACK EWD ACROSS PA THAN IS THE 00Z NAM. AT 60-HRS
OUT...GENERALLY PREFER THE GFS HERE. THIS TAKES THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST LIGHT
RAIN MOST SECTIONS THURSDAY AFTN. 3" QPF MAX ACROSS E-CENTRAL NY
INTO FAR SRN VT IN GFS SOLN...WITH AROUND 1-1.25" ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH IN TERMS OF FORECAST RAINFALL...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS/QPF ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT DURING 18Z THU THRU 00Z
FRI TIME FRAME...WITH LOWER POPS/LOWER QPF NWD ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS
AROUND 70 IN THE NRN VALLEYS...MID-UPR 60S DEPENDING ON PCPN TIMING
FOR S-CENTRAL VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR DRY WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC/OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AT THE SFC WITH UPPER LEVEL HTS INCREASING AS WELL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE BERMUDA AREA
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND PROGRESS EAST. UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE THE BROAD TROUGH WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH...LEADING TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WKND...BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
LOW 40S TO MID 50S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST AS SLOW MOVING SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH IFR PSBL WITHIN SHOWERS.
A FEW BREAKS FROM PRECIP PSBL FOR ADKS AND PTS SOUTH...BUT AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS OVER THE ADKS THIS AFTN...SE WINDS
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING ON THIS LINE
NOT EXACT AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL FORMATION.
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS/CIGS EXPECTED WITH THIS
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST...SO DO NOT FORESEE VSBYS BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF REGION.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
LIMITED TO FIELD/LOW-LAND AND POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.25" TO 2" ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE ACROSS NERN NY ACROSS FAR NRN VT. HOWEVER...SOILS ARE
SATURATED AREAWIDE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT PONDING OF WATER
IN POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAINFALL WILL BE STEADY AND GENERALLY OF MODERATE INTENSITY. THE
ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL HELP
PRECLUDE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND SHOULD AVOID ANY OF THE
MAIN-STEM RIVERS REACHING FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NEEDED
AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES VIA
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERCAST AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...TRAVERSING THE
FRONTAL ZONE TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG. NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT TUESDAY...STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY AT RATES OF 0.10-0.15" PER HOUR. NARROW DRY
SLOT LIFTS NORTH IN ADVANCE OF ELONGATED UPPER LOW...LOCATED
ACROSS WRN NY/PA AT 11Z THIS MORNING. THIS MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD
ALLOW RAINFALL RATES TO TAPER OFF A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL/CHAMPLAIN VLY OF VT. AVAILABLE LOCAL WRF RUNS AS
WELL AS HRRR AND 00/06Z NAM INDICATE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL VT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN
18-22Z. LOWER STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM...SO OVERCAST AREAWIDE
TODAY. THEREAFTER...RAINFALL INTENSIFIES AGAIN WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALOFT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS UNTIL SELY GRADIENT FLOW SLACKENS
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ELONGATED UPR TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SERN ONTARIO SWD INTO ERN
OHIO...MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO NY AT 07Z. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL PA TO SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. GOOD
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN REGIONAL VAD DATA INDICATIVE OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ONGOING FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND
NWD ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES BY 12Z ON SLY 850MB FLOW OF 20-25 KTS; EXPECTED PW
VALUES ARE ABOUT 175-185% OF NORMAL. THE 00Z ALB SOUNDING HAD AN
OBSERVED PW OF 1.73 INCHES SO GFS/NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS IN LINE.
THE SFC LOW AND UPR TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AND
TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTN. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW CENTER...WHICH MAY
REACH INTO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES 09-12Z. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS LESSENING AND IT APPEARS THE
THREAT FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT NARROW WINDOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
GOOD NEWS FOR MITIGATING ANY FLOOD THREAT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S EARLY THIS AM AND WILL ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW 60S FOR AFTN HIGHS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SE
5-10 MPH...BUT LOCALLY NELY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE IMMEDIATE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
RAINFALL: FOR THE 18-HR PERIOD 06Z TUE THRU 00Z WED (8PM THIS
EVENING)...LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1" AREAWIDE...AND
LOCALLY UP TO 1.25" ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
RATES IN THIS EVENT WILL BE STEADY AND PROLONGED...AND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE OR FIELD
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EDT TUESDAY...SFC LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY
OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AT 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO COASTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WWD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS
MAINTAINED 06-12Z PERIOD. ALOFT...500MB LOW BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS
IT MOVES EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN VT AND QUEBEC.
INDICATIONS ARE A WWD EXTENDING DEFORMATION AXIS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER 00Z GFS/NAM SOLNS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50"...HIGHEST OVER THE NRN GREEN MTNS INTO
THE NE KINGDOM. WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST AND PATCHY FOG...TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL MUCH AND LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MID-UPR
50S AREAWIDE.
WEDNESDAY...VERTICAL STACKED LOW PULLS AWAY NEAR/SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD SEE SFC WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE N-NW AT 10-15 MPH. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED...BUT NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK SBCAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN HRS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER WITH VALLEY HIGHS AROUND 70.
WEAK RIDGE BY DEFAULT ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. IT APPEARS A WINDOW OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE.
SATURATED GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS LOOK IDEAL FOR
NOCTURNAL FOG AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE GRIDS 04-12Z THURSDAY.
THURSDAY FEATURES A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING RAPIDLY FROM THE UPR OHIO RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE NJ COAST AROUND 00Z FRIDAY PER GFS SOLN.
SFC LOW DEEPENS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 00Z GFS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ON LOW TRACK EWD ACROSS PA THAN IS THE 00Z NAM. AT 60-HRS
OUT...GENERALLY PREFER THE GFS HERE. THIS TAKES THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST LIGHT
RAIN MOST SECTIONS THURSDAY AFTN. 3" QPF MAX ACROSS E-CENTRAL NY
INTO FAR SRN VT IN GFS SOLN...WITH AROUND 1-1.25" ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH IN TERMS OF FORECAST RAINFALL...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS/QPF ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT DURING 18Z THU THRU 00Z
FRI TIME FRAME...WITH LOWER POPS/LOWER QPF NWD ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS
AROUND 70 IN THE NRN VALLEYS...MID-UPR 60S DEPENDING ON PCPN TIMING
FOR S-CENTRAL VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR DRY WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC/OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AT THE SFC WITH UPPER LEVEL HTS INCREASING AS WELL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE BERMUDA AREA
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND PROGRESS EAST. UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE THE BROAD TROUGH WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH...LEADING TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WKND...BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
LOW 40S TO MID 50S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST AS SLOW MOVING SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH IFR PSBL WITHIN SHOWERS.
A FEW BREAKS FROM PRECIP PSBL FOR ADKS AND PTS SOUTH...BUT AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS OVER THE ADKS THIS AFTN...SE WINDS
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING ON THIS LINE
NOT EXACCT AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL FORMATION.
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS/CIGS EXPECTED WITH THIS
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST...SO DO NOT FORESEE VSBYS BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF REGION.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
LIMITED TO FIELD/LOW-LAND AND POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.25" TO 2" ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE ACROSS NERN NY ACROSS FAR NRN VT. HOWEVER...SOILS ARE
SATURATED AREAWIDE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT PONDING OF WATER
IN POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAINFALL WILL BE STEADY AND GENERALLY OF MODERATE INTENSITY. THE
ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL HELP
PRECLUDE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND SHOULD AVOID ANY OF THE
MAIN-STEM RIVERS REACHING FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NEEDED
AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES VIA
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERCAST AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...TRAVERSING THE
FRONTAL ZONE TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG. NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT TUESDAY...STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY AT RATES OF 0.10-0.15" PER HOUR. NARROW DRY
SLOT LIFTS NORTH IN ADVANCE OF ELONGATED UPPER LOW...LOCATED
ACROSS WRN NY/PA AT 11Z THIS MORNING. THIS MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD
ALLOW RAINFALL RATES TO TAPER OFF A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL/CHAMPLAIN VLY OF VT. AVAILABLE LOCAL WRF RUNS AS
WELL AS HRRR AND 00/06Z NAM INDICATE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL VT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN
18-22Z. LOWER STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM...SO OVERCAST AREAWIDE
TODAY. THEREAFTER...RAINFALL INTENSIFIES AGAIN WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALOFT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS UNTIL SELY GRADIENT FLOW SLACKENS
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ELONGATED UPR TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SERN ONTARIO SWD INTO ERN
OHIO...MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO NY AT 07Z. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL PA TO SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. GOOD
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN REGIONAL VAD DATA INDICATIVE OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ONGOING FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND
NWD ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES BY 12Z ON SLY 850MB FLOW OF 20-25 KTS; EXPECTED PW
VALUES ARE ABOUT 175-185% OF NORMAL. THE 00Z ALB SOUNDING HAD AN
OBSERVED PW OF 1.73 INCHES SO GFS/NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS IN LINE.
THE SFC LOW AND UPR TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AND
TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTN. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW CENTER...WHICH MAY
REACH INTO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES 09-12Z. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS LESSENING AND IT APPEARS THE
THREAT FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT NARROW WINDOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
GOOD NEWS FOR MITIGATING ANY FLOOD THREAT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S EARLY THIS AM AND WILL ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW 60S FOR AFTN HIGHS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SE
5-10 MPH...BUT LOCALLY NELY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE IMMEDIATE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
RAINFALL: FOR THE 18-HR PERIOD 06Z TUE THRU 00Z WED (8PM THIS
EVENING)...LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1" AREAWIDE...AND
LOCALLY UP TO 1.25" ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
RATES IN THIS EVENT WILL BE STEADY AND PROLONGED...AND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE OR FIELD
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EDT TUESDAY...SFC LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY
OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AT 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO COASTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WWD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS
MAINTAINED 06-12Z PERIOD. ALOFT...500MB LOW BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS
IT MOVES EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN VT AND QUEBEC.
INDICATIONS ARE A WWD EXTENDING DEFORMATION AXIS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER 00Z GFS/NAM SOLNS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50"...HIGHEST OVER THE NRN GREEN MTNS INTO
THE NE KINGDOM. WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST AND PATCHY FOG...TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL MUCH AND LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MID-UPR
50S AREAWIDE.
WEDNESDAY...VERTICAL STACKED LOW PULLS AWAY NEAR/SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD SEE SFC WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE N-NW AT 10-15 MPH. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED...BUT NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK SBCAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN HRS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER WITH VALLEY HIGHS AROUND 70.
WEAK RIDGE BY DEFAULT ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. IT APPEARS A WINDOW OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE.
SATURATED GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS LOOK IDEAL FOR
NOCTURNAL FOG AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE GRIDS 04-12Z THURSDAY.
THURSDAY FEATURES A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING RAPIDLY FROM THE UPR OHIO RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE NJ COAST AROUND 00Z FRIDAY PER GFS SOLN.
SFC LOW DEEPENS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 00Z GFS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ON LOW TRACK EWD ACROSS PA THAN IS THE 00Z NAM. AT 60-HRS
OUT...GENERALLY PREFER THE GFS HERE. THIS TAKES THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST LIGHT
RAIN MOST SECTIONS THURSDAY AFTN. 3" QPF MAX ACROSS E-CENTRAL NY
INTO FAR SRN VT IN GFS SOLN...WITH AROUND 1-1.25" ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH IN TERMS OF FORECAST RAINFALL...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS/QPF ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT DURING 18Z THU THRU 00Z
FRI TIME FRAME...WITH LOWER POPS/LOWER QPF NWD ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS
AROUND 70 IN THE NRN VALLEYS...MID-UPR 60S DEPENDING ON PCPN TIMING
FOR S-CENTRAL VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR DRY WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC/OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AT THE SFC WITH UPPER LEVEL HTS INCREASING AS WELL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE BERMUDA AREA
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND PROGRESS EAST. UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE THE BROAD TROUGH WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH...LEADING TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WKND...BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
LOW 40S TO MID 50S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITHIN PERIODS OF RAIN. MVFR VSBYS AT KMPV/KRUT AND
KMSS WILL SEE PSBL IFR WITHIN SHOWERS WITH CONTINUED LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE CPV HAS ALLOWED KPBG AND
KBTV TO REMAIN VFR. WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE...VSYBYS MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR. RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY DURING THE DAY WITH CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS OF
MVFR AT RUT/MPV/SLK...MVFR/IFR AT MSS/PBG. BTV MAY REMAIN VFR IN
SOME DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF REGION.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
LIMITED TO FIELD/LOW-LAND AND POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.25" TO 2" ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE ACROSS NERN NY ACROSS FAR NRN VT. HOWEVER...SOILS ARE
SATURATED AREAWIDE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT PONDING OF WATER
IN POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAINFALL WILL BE STEADY AND GENERALLY OF MODERATE INTENSITY. THE
ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL HELP
PRECLUDE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND SHOULD AVOID ANY OF THE
MAIN-STEM RIVERS REACHING FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NEEDED
AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES VIA
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
322 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND
LOWER ACROSS NEW YORK TOWARD THE LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 PM UPDATE... BAND OF RA/+RA IS MOVG NEWD ACRS NE PA ATTM...AND
IT SHOULD ALSO TRAVERSE OUR NY CNTYS E OF I-81...THROUGH ABT
05-07Z. DYNAMIC FORCING IS BEING PROVIDED BY UPR-LVL WV LIFTING
THROUGH WRN NY/PA...AND ALSO SOME UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE/JET SUPPORT.
MOISTURE SUPPLY IS DEFINITELY THERE...WITH BLENDED TPW IMAGERY
DEPICTING VALUES NEAR 2" FROM THE MID-ATL STATES NWD INTO SERN
PTNS OF THE FA. FORTUNATELY...THE AREA OF PCPN ITSELF IS
PROGRESSIVE...SO LCLZD MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2"
RANGE...FOR THE MOST PART. WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER ENHANCEMENT
AND/OR TRAINING OCCUR.
DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS (07-10Z)...STEADIER PCPN SHOULD TAPER BACK
TO SCTD -SHRA IN OUR ERN ZNS...AS THE BEST FORCED LIFT SHIFTS TO
OUR N AND E BY THIS TIME.
JUST MINOR TEMP/DEW PT TWEAKS WERE MADE THROUGH THE LATE EVE HRS.
PREV DISC... 630 PM EDT UPDATE... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. INCREASED POPS IN THE WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL PA. CURRENT
ANALYSIS IS INDICATING THAT MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS IS TAKING PLACE
OVER CENTRAL NY...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE CATSKILLS AND NE PA THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE REGION OF THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES. OTHER
THEN THAN...PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS GOOD.
EARLIER DISC... 230 PM UPDATE...
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN IN THE QUARTER TO LESS THAN HALF
INCH RAIN. MAYBE A FEW BREAKS HERE IN THE SHOWERS AND THEN HI RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD BATCH OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH IN THE 00Z TO 03Z
TIME FRAME. HRRR IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW. ARW HAS BEEN
DOING WELL WITH ITS FCSTS. THIS EVENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ANY THUNDER. PRIMARY FOCUS AREA REMAINS OVER NE
PA AND THE CATSKILLS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BUT OVER 2 INCHES IS NEEDED IN 3 HOURS WHICH WOULD NEED
A CLUSTER OF GOOD CONVECTION TO TRIGGER THIS AND THAT DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY. TOWARD MORNING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL
OR EVEN DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NY TUESDAY HELPING TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HAVE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND A FAVORABLE
JET REGION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE AT DRY WEATHER. WARM FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY
WITH A JET ENTRANCE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER N
EACH RUN WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. MAIN FOCUS AND TRACK OF THE
CENTER REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SETTING
UP A BAND OF GOOD RAIN ACROSS PA NRN TIER AND SOME IN THE NY SRN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
ONLY CHG MADE TO EXTNDD FCST TONIGHT WAS TO MASSAGE GRIDS MORE TWD
WPC GUIDANCE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BTWN 00Z GFS AND 00Z
EURO AS WE HEAD TWD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH GFS
INDICATING H5 SYSTEM AND ASSOC STRONG SFC LOW AFFECTING THE AREA,
WHILE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER. HWVR, GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF SFC
BNDRYS AND SFC LOWS, CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AT ANY TIME LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL APPEARS AS THO SATURDAY WL
BE NICE UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND HIPRES.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
230 PM UPDATE...MED RNG FCST FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD. CHCS FOR -SHRA ASSCD WITH LOW PRES DEPARTING THE MID
ATLC RGN ON THU NGT (MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA)...THEN THE PSBLTY OF
SCT- SHRA ON FRI WITH PASSING S/WV`S IN NW FLOW. AFTER THAT...SFC
HI PRES IS XPCT TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH
MAXES GNRLY IN THE L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
LOWER ELEVATION SITES PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AND HIGHER TERMINALS AT
IFR. KITH AND KBGM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THROUGH 14Z
THIS MORNING WHILE KELM AND KRME WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE.
KRME AND KELM WILL LIKELY DIP INTO IFR CATEGORIES THROUGH 12Z-15Z
WITH KSYR AND KAVP REMAINING IN LOW-END MVFR CATEGORY. FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING WITH MIXING BRINGING CIGS
UP TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY VFR AT KAVP. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE,
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TERMINALS
AGAIN TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE ESE EARLY THEN VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES
AROUND 18Z SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE T0 AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS EXPECTED FROM 20-25KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED/WED NGT...MAINLY VFR.
THUR-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
143 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND
LOWER ACROSS NEW YORK TOWARD THE LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE... BAND OF RA/+RA IS MOVG NEWD ACRS NE PA ATTM...AND
IT SHOULD ALSO TRAVERSE OUR NY CNTYS E OF I-81...THROUGH ABT
05-07Z. DYNAMIC FORCING IS BEING PROVIDED BY UPR-LVL WV LIFTING
THROUGH WRN NY/PA...AND ALSO SOME UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE/JET SUPPORT.
MOISTURE SUPPLY IS DEFINITELY THERE...WITH BLENDED TPW IMAGERY
DEPICTING VALUES NEAR 2" FROM THE MID-ATL STATES NWD INTO SERN
PTNS OF THE FA. FORTUNATELY...THE AREA OF PCPN ITSELF IS
PROGRESSIVE...SO LCLZD MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2"
RANGE...FOR THE MOST PART. WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER ENHANCEMENT
AND/OR TRAINING OCCUR.
DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS (07-10Z)...STEADIER PCPN SHOULD TAPER BACK
TO SCTD -SHRA IN OUR ERN ZNS...AS THE BEST FORCED LIFT SHIFTS TO
OUR N AND E BY THIS TIME.
JUST MINOR TEMP/DEW PT TWEAKS WERE MADE THROUGH THE LATE EVE HRS.
PREV DISC... 630 PM EDT UPDATE... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. INCREASED POPS IN THE WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL PA. CURRENT
ANALYSIS IS INDICATING THAT MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS IS TAKING PLACE
OVER CENTRAL NY...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE CATSKILLS AND NE PA THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE REGION OF THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES. OTHER
THEN THAN...PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS GOOD.
EARLIER DISC... 230 PM UPDATE...
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN IN THE QUARTER TO LESS THAN HALF
INCH RAIN. MAYBE A FEW BREAKS HERE IN THE SHOWERS AND THEN HI RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD BATCH OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH IN THE 00Z TO 03Z
TIME FRAME. HRRR IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW. ARW HAS BEEN
DOING WELL WITH ITS FCSTS. THIS EVENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ANY THUNDER. PRIMARY FOCUS AREA REMAINS OVER NE
PA AND THE CATSKILLS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BUT OVER 2 INCHES IS NEEDED IN 3 HOURS WHICH WOULD NEED
A CLUSTER OF GOOD CONVECTION TO TRIGGER THIS AND THAT DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY. TOWARD MORNING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL
OR EVEN DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NY TUESDAY HELPING TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HAVE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND A FAVORABLE
JET REGION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE AT DRY WEATHER. WARM FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY
WITH A JET ENTRANCE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER N
EACH RUN WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. MAIN FOCUS AND TRACK OF THE
CENTER REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SETTING
UP A BAND OF GOOD RAIN ACROSS PA NRN TIER AND SOME IN THE NY SRN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...MED RNG FCST FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD. CHCS FOR -SHRA ASSCD WITH LOW PRES DEPARTING THE MID
ATLC RGN ON THU NGT (MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA)...THEN THE PSBLTY OF
SCT- SHRA ON FRI WITH PASSING S/WV`S IN NW FLOW. AFTER THAT...SFC
HI PRES IS XPCT TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH
MAXES GNRLY IN THE L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
LOWER ELEVATION SITES PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AND HIGHER TERMINALS AT
IFR. KITH AND KBGM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THROUGH 14Z
THIS MORNING WHILE KELM AND KRME WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE.
KRME AND KELM WILL LIKELY DIP INTO IFR CATEGORIES THROUGH 12Z-15Z
WITH KSYR AND KAVP REMAINING IN LOW-END MVFR CATEGORY. FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING WITH MIXING BRINGING CIGS
UP TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY VFR AT KAVP. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE,
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TERMINALS
AGAIN TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE ESE EARLY THEN VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES
AROUND 18Z SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE T0 AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS EXPECTED FROM 20-25KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED/WED NGT...MAINLY VFR.
THUR-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE ISOLATED LATE-AFTERNOON STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE TRIAD
FORMED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH INSTABILITY BUT MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH A STABLE POCKET ALOFT AROUND 700 MB WHICH LIMITED
EXTENT. THESE HAVE LEFT BEHIND A BATCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
SHOULD DRIFT SE OUT OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN
THE "CALM BEFORE THE STORM" TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A
CONCERN FOR WEAK LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS
A WAVY NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER NE IA
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND AND THE SRN BORDER OF MI THROUGH PA TO
DELAWARE... WITH WEAK TROUGHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NC. WIDESPREAD
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS -- PROMPTED IN PART BY A POTENT VORTICITY
MAX DROPPING INTO IA -- TRACKED ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THIS
FRONT... AND IT IS THE CONVECTION NOW OVER OH THAT IS OF CONCERN TO
US OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-ARW TAKES THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD AS A MCS
THROUGH DC AND NJ... AND THE HRRR IS SIMILAR BUT ACTUALLY BRUSHES
ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NC LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE
PERSISTENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG)... THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE AMBITIOUS GIVEN THE ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND QUICKLY DEVELOPING CINH... BUT A MORE PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO (INDICATED BY PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS) IS A MORE
NORTHWARD-TRACKING MCS AND THE DEPOSITION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NC LATE TONIGHT... WHICH WOULD HAVE
RAMIFICATIONS TOMORROW IN TERMS OF ENHANCEMENT OF OR FOCUS FOR
STORMS. THE OH STORMS HAVE BEEN LARGELY DISCRETE WITH FEW SIGNS OF
IMMINENT CONGEALMENT INTO A SQUALL LINE... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
THE STORMS FURTHER UPSTREAM AS WELL OVER IL/IN (AS NOTED BY SPC IN
ITS LATEST OUTLOOK)... WHICH LOWERS THE CHANCE THAN NC WILL BE
AFFECTED BY A CONVECTIVE LINE OVERNIGHT. THUS... WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
OVERNIGHT... BUT HOLD AT 14 PERCENT IN THE NORTH. BUT WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR OVERNIGHT FOR ANY DISCRETE ISOLATED
CELLS THAT CAN POP UP THROUGH THE CAP. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW
WELL UP INTO THE 70S... EXPECT LOWS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED... 70-75. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AS THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY TO NEARLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 DEG C/KM. EXPECT A STOUT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL
WIND MAX OF 50+ KTS ROTATING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...INITIATED IN PART BY THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH BUT
LIMITED IN COVERAGE FROM A NOTABLE DOWNSLOPE DRYING FLOW OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY GROW IN
COVERAGE AS IT APPROACHES THE US 1 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. AS THE CONVECTION
REACHES A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND BOWING FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 9 WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOWER 90S NORTHWEST TO
MID 90S SOUTHEAST. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND OR
JUST EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. WILL ACCORDINGLY MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY FRIDAY MORNING. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. THE STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
VERY WELL COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME SPRINKLES.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO PUT ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...IT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES NEAR AN
INCH) MAY RESIDE.
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALTHOUGH THE
CORE OF THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF OF THE REGION BEFORE
FLATTENING OUT BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND) WILL LEAD TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S...OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW 60S...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BETWEEN THE
MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME ON TUESDAY...WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
FOCUSED. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE OUR
MOISTURE BACK UP AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING ON NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR SO OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS...AFTER
DAYBREAK. STILL ANTICIPATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL 18Z...WITH EARLIEST DEVELOPMENT AT KRDU AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH KRWI AND KFAY TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SHOWERS AT THOSE TERMINALS...BUT
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE REDUCED VISBYS EXPECTED
WITH HEAVY RAIN...STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE. -KC
OUTLOOK...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (SEE ABOVE PARAGRAPH) WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP RETURNING TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. -KRR
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS/GIH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KC/KRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
818 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US WITH TROUGHING
INLAND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE TRIAD
REGION IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES SE INTO TO THE TRIANGLE
AND HRRR HAS THIS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CUMBERLAND COUNTY...SO NO THREAT TO ERN NC EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GREATLY OVERDONE WITH (NON-
EXISTENT) CONVECTION OVER VA EARLY THIS EVENING SO EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...HOT AND ACTIVE WX EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 20-22C SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS MID 80S
TO MID 90S...WARMEST INLAND. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/LOWER
70S THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES. AT THIS
TIME THINK HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
17 BUT THINK IT WILL BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW.
EASTERN NC REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LI VALUES TO -9 ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SVR STORMS WILL BE AFTER 3PM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ONGOING SVR TSTM THREAT FROM THU AFTN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NC DURING EVENING WITH PSBL SQUALL LINE MOVING
ACROSS FROM WEST-NORTHWEST. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROVIDE CONDUCIVE FOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN STRONG TO SVR AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA...WITH MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. INCLUDED
ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS DURING EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
INLAND OF SEA BREEZE ZONE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SVR THREAT TO OFFSHORE.
SECONDARY SHRT WV WITH MAIN UPR TROF ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SLGT CHC
POPS OVER NRN SECTIONS FRI AFTN EVEN THROUGH MSTR WILL BE LIMITED
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY FRI MORNING.
HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH RIDGING SFC
AND ALOFT RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS.
SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY ALLOWING WARMING SW FLOW TO RETURN.
SERIES OF SHRT WVS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY...LEADING TO UPR
TROFFING PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO AREA LATE TUE INTO WED.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST 20-30 POPS FOR MON AFTN...INCREASING TO
30-40 FOR TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT MIXING EXPECTED TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
BUT COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IF WINDS BECOME CALM. THU WILL BE
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KT. A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION THU
AFTERNOON AND COULD PUSH INTO COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 22Z BUT MORE LIKELY AROUND 00Z. THIS
LINE COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF JUST YET SINCE IT IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND UNTIL TIMING CAN BE
PINNED DOWN A LITTLE BETTER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH PSBL
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS AREA THU EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA. ISOLD TSTMS PSBL OVER
NRN SECTIONS FRI AFTN...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILING INTO SUNDAY AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER AREA. SOME PSBL FOG/STRATUS WITH RETURN OF
S-SW FLOW SUN NIGHT...THEN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS
FOR MON WITH SCT TSTMS PSLB INLAND OF SEA BREEZE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM WED...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE MINIMAL CHANGES
FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 5-15KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH SWLY WINDS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY...MAINLY TO 15KT FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SC ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT
THURSDAY EVENING.
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST GDNC GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING. STRONG SW FLOW 20-25 KT WILL BE ONGOING THU EVENING WITH
APPROACH OF STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. PSBL GUST FRONT WITH SQUALL LINE
OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE QUICK WIND SHIFT TO W-NW BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT PREVAILING SYNOPTIC WIND FCST WILL INDICATE WINDS
SHIFTING TO W-NW OVERNIGHT WITH TRUE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF POST-FRONTAL SURGE ON
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED MODEL BLEND FCST WITH NRLY WINDS 15-20 KT
SPREADING N TO S DURING DAY. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FRI NIGHT AND
SAT MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS AREA AND RETURNING TO S-SW
BY SAT EVENING. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE BACK TO 15-20 KT LATE SUN INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NW.
BLEND OF WW3 AND SWAN USED FOR SEAS DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS PEAKING
7-9 FT THU EVENING THEN SUBSIDING...BUT MAY LINGER TO AROUND 6 FT
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO FRI NIGHT DUE TO NRLY WIND SURGE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KORD EAST
AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. A BROAD SFC TROUGH
HAS SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT TO MID 60S FURTHER EAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE AIR MASS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IS
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WITH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FURTHER EAST.
WE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN OR UPSTREAM OF THIS AIRMASS AND THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SOME BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC LATER THIS
EVENING. THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE
NOTED A LOW LEVEL CAP THAT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN THE WEAKER FORCING AND MORE SUBTLE FEATURES.
THEY CURRENTLY PROVIDE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS THIS EVENING BUT THEIR
TREND IS FOR LESS COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST
THIS EVENING BUT KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY WITH FAIR SKIES.
EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE 68 TO 73 RANGE. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AS THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY TO NEARLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 DEG C/KM. EXPECT A STOUT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL
WIND MAX OF 50+ KTS ROTATING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...INITIATED IN PART BY THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH BUT
LIMITED IN COVERAGE FROM A NOTABLE DOWNSLOPE DRYING FLOW OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY GROW IN
COVERAGE AS IT APPROACHES THE US 1 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. AS THE CONVECTION
REACHES A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND BOWING FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 9 WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOWER 90S NORTHWEST TO
MID 90S SOUTHEAST. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND OR
JUST EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. WILL ACCORDINGLY MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY FRIDAY MORNING. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. THE STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
VERY WELL COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME SPRINKLES.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO PUT ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...IT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES NEAR AN
INCH) MAY RESIDE.
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALTHOUGH THE
CORE OF THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF OF THE REGION BEFORE
FLATTENING OUT BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND) WILL LEAD TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S...OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW 60S...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BETWEEN THE
MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME ON TUESDAY...WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
FOCUSED. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE OUR
MOISTURE BACK UP AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING ON NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR SO OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS...AFTER
DAYBREAK. STILL ANTICIPATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL 18Z...WITH EARLIEST DEVELOPMENT AT KRDU AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH KRWI AND KFAY TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SHOWERS AT THOSE TERMINALS...BUT
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE REDUCED VISBYS EXPECTED
WITH HEAVY RAIN...STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE. -KC
OUTLOOK...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (SEE ABOVE PARAGRAPH) WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP RETURNING TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. -KRR
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KC/KRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
258 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS A WEAK TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY BUT MORE-SO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...THE CLOUD DECK HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO SCOUR OUT
OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND LUMBERTON AREAS. THE
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE
COAST. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
COUPLE SHRA FIRING OVER ROBESON COUNTY (DILLON EARLIER). THE DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAVE ALSO ACTED TO CAP THE ENVIRONMENT. THUS PLAN TO CONTINUE
<20 POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NO
POPS WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET TEMPS FOR
MINS TONIGHT...BASICALLY LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...AN EXTREMELY HOT PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY SINCE LAST
SEPTEMBER 1...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST SINCE LAST JULY.
MID LEVEL RIDGING BULGES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WHICH WILL LIE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 850MB TEMPS RISE TOWARDS
20C ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION.
HIGH RES ARW SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...WHILE NMM/NAM SHOW
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. WITH DRYING FLOW ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL
LID IN PLACE...WILL CAP POP AT SILENT...JUST BELOW THRESHOLD ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 90S PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE SINCE W/NW FLOW WILL PIN THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT HIGHS FROM AROUND 90 AT THE BEACHES TO MID 90S IN THE PEE
DEE. MINS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM DUE TO CONTINUED SW FLOW...FALLING
ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.
THURSDAY IS THE HOTTER, AND MORE INTERESTING DAY. 850MB TEMPS RISE
ALL THE WAY TO 22C...SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE
90S...AND THE HOTTEST DAY SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 (95 AT ILM, 95 AT FLO,
92 AT CRE) IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A
FEW OF THE FAVORABLE WARM SPOTS (BBP, CKI, RAWS OBS) TOUCH 100
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS HEAT...SEVERAL DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CREATE A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 70S.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE VERY HIGH TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL
RAISE APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR-OR-ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
THE OTHER CONCERN THURSDAY IS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH MAY
IMPACT THE AREA LATE. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL REACH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS...DRIVEN BY A STRONG VORT/SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED WITH THIS FEATURE...MEANING BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATE /TOWARDS OR AFTER DARK/ WHICH
COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...2000-3000 J/KG, WITH
RAPID HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE EVENING, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7-8 C/KM WITHIN AN EML EVIDENT FROM 800-600MB...WHICH LOWERS THROUGH
THE EVE. ALSO NOTED...UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS APPROACHING 40 KTS WITHIN
THIS EML WHICH WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS FROM
NW TO SE LATE. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE...BUT LOSS OF
INSOLATION LATE COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. SPC CONTINUES A 15%
SLIGHT FOR THE SWODY3...AND WILL LIMIT MENTION OF SEVERE TO AFD/HWO
FOR NOW SINCE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN TIMING. FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY...AND MINS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
FAR NW...AROUND 70 AT THE COAST...BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION. PERIOD BEGINS
WITH EXITING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO SLIGHT CHC POP ALONG THE
COAST FOR FIRST HALF OF FRI BUT BY MIDDAY DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL USHER IN A COOLER DRIER AIR MASS. OVER THE WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CU
BUT DEEP NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT PRECIP.
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MON WITH PATTERN BECOMING MORE
PROGRESSIVE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PIEDMONT TROUGH
CONVECTION ON MON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/JETTING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUE IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO A MORE
ACTIVE DAY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. RETURN FLOW NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES CREEPING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MON AND
TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL QUITE DRY AT THE MID LEVELS...
NEVERTHELESS THE HRRR IS STILL SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN...AM NOT BUYING THE HRRR SCENARIO AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP
CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS. HAVE ALSO TONED THE SOUTHWEST WINDS DOWN
A BIT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG.
STRATUS IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL KEEP IT SCATTERED FOR NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...LIGHTER WINDS WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE
INLAND CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. CHOPPY SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP SW RETURN FLOW ONGOING OVER THE WATERS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE. AS THIS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY...TO AS MUCH AS 25 KTS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE SEAS HIGHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
THURSDAY /THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY...TO
4-6 FT LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE 5 SEC SW WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT
WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK WITH MINIMAL COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SAT AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT AND
PROXIMITY OF WATERS TO THE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS INTO SUN. GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED SUN AS BERMUDA
HIGH/PIEDMONT TROUGH COMBO SET UP. SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15 KT SUN
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC WATERS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT FRI MORNING
WILL SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT SAT AND SUN.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PREVAIL INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A VERY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS REMAIN AROUND 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S THIS MORNING...BUT WITH MIXING EXPECT THEM TO DROP INTO
THE 60S DURING THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
CAPPED AIR-MASS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE
CONVECTION...THUS HAVE KEPT POPS <20 ALL AREAS. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WEAKEN SOME DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FROM BECOMING PINNED TO THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OFF THE
EAST COAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH WED.
AT THE SURFACE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
INLAND CAROLINAS. OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP W-NW FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A FEW MINOR PERTURBATIONS RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WED INTO EARLY THURS.
WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALIZED CU DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
BY THURS THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL AID IN A DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE STRONG
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL ALSO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE THE BEST CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE ALIGNED MORE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
THURS EVENING. RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY RAIN FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HIGHER KEEPING AN
OVERALL HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY WARM TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 90S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO 100 WED AFTN
AND POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS INLAND NORTH
CAROLINA AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURS AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF COAST ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURS WILL
BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AFTN. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH DEWPOINT
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO 60 ON FRI WILL REBOUND BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY AND OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE H5 RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT
AND A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
INTRODUCE LOW END POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S MOST
PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL QUITE DRY AT THE MID LEVELS...
NEVERTHELESS THE HRRR IS STILL SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN...AM NOT BUYING THE HRRR SCENARIO AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP
CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS. HAVE ALSO TONED THE SOUTHWEST WINDS DOWN
A BIT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG.
STRATUS IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL KEEP IT SCATTERED FOR NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...LIGHTER WINDS WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS AND THIS IS LINE WITH THE CURRENT THINKING THAT THE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE CAN BE DROPPED AT NOON. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BACK
TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 3-5 FT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...W-SW WINDS DOWN AROUND 10 KTS WED MORNING
WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
LATE THURS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED INTO THURS AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FIRST DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND THEN DUE TO APPROACH OF COLD FRONT BY LATE THURS.
EXPECT SW WINDS BACK UP TO A SOLID 15 KTS BY THURS AFTN WITH SEAS
UP AROUND 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND PEAKING JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THURS EVENING AROUND 6 FT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LAST FROM THURS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTH AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
LATE FRI AND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1045 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PREVAIL INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A VERY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS REMAIN AROUND 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S THIS MORNING...BUT WITH MIXING EXPECT THEM TO DROP INTO
THE 60S DURING THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
CAPPED AIR-MASS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE
CONVECTION...THUS HAVE KEPT POPS <20 ALL AREAS. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WEAKEN SOME DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FROM BECOMING PINNED TO THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OFF THE
EAST COAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH WED.
AT THE SURFACE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
INLAND CAROLINAS. OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP W-NW FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A FEW MINOR PERTURBATIONS RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WED INTO EARLY THURS.
WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALIZED CU DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
BY THURS THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL AID IN A DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE STRONG
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL ALSO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE THE BEST CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE ALIGNED MORE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
THURS EVENING. RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY RAIN FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HIGHER KEEPING AN
OVERALL HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY WARM TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 90S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO 100 WED AFTN
AND POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS INLAND NORTH
CAROLINA AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURS AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF COAST ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURS WILL
BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AFTN. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH DEWPOINT
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO 60 ON FRI WILL REBOUND BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY AND OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE H5 RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT
AND A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
INTRODUCE LOW END POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S MOST
PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DEEP MOISTURE TRYING TO EXIT THE COAST...WITH CONVECTION
ADVECTING ACROSS BALD HEAD ISLAND. POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. LOOK FOR VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
ADVERTISING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH. WILL REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO WITH THE NEXT
MODEL RUN. FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY...GUSTING
NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS AND THIS IS LINE WITH THE CURRENT THINKING THAT THE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE CAN BE DROPPED AT NOON. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BACK
TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 3-5 FT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...W-SW WINDS DOWN AROUND 10 KTS WED MORNING
WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
LATE THURS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED INTO THURS AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FIRST DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND THEN DUE TO APPROACH OF COLD FRONT BY LATE THURS.
EXPECT SW WINDS BACK UP TO A SOLID 15 KTS BY THURS AFTN WITH SEAS
UP AROUND 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND PEAKING JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THURS EVENING AROUND 6 FT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LAST FROM THURS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTH AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
LATE FRI AND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES EAST LEAVING
A WEAK TROUGH INLAND AND A VERY WARM AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS PROBABLE GIVEN
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALOFT. I WILL STILL LEAVE A 20 POP
GOING FOR NOW. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM
FOLLOWS...
AN ILL-DEFINED FRONT STILL HUNG UP IN THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL SLIDE EAST AND INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S TOUGH TO CALL THIS A COLD FRONT AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OUR AIRMASS IS
QUITE A BIT DRIER (ESPECIALLY ALOFT) AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HAVE FALLEN FROM 2.0 INCHES TO ONLY 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NC/VA COAST AROUND
DAYBREAK. NVA BEHIND THIS TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
AND MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB RISING BY 3-4 DEGREES C
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TODAY. EVEN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO
88-92 THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRODUCE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND ONLY A
SMATTERING OF CONVECTION. MY FORECAST IS FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OFF THE
EAST COAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH WED.
AT THE SURFACE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
INLAND CAROLINAS. OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP W-NW FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A FEW MINOR PERTURBATIONS RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WED INTO EARLY THURS.
WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALIZED CU DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
BY THURS THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL AID IN A DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE STRONG
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL ALSO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE THE BEST CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE ALIGNED MORE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
THURS EVENING. RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY RAIN FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HIGHER KEEPING AN
OVERALL HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY WARM TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 90S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO 100 WED AFTN
AND POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS INLAND NORTH
CAROLINA AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURS AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF COAST ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURS WILL
BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AFTN. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH DEWPOINT
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO 60 ON FRI WILL REBOUND BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY AND OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE H5 RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT
AND A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
INTRODUCE LOW END POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S MOST
PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DEEP MOISTURE TRYING TO EXIT THE COAST...WITH CONVECTION
ADVECTING ACROSS BALD HEAD ISLAND. POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. LOOK FOR VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
ADVERTISING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH. WILL REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO WITH THE NEXT
MODEL RUN. FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY...GUSTING
NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING APPEAR TO BE TOPPING OUT AROUND 20
KNOTS. WE ARE PROBABLY NEAR THE PEAK IN WIND SPEEDS...AND AFTER
PLATEAUING NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOCAL INCREASE IN WINDS NEARSHORE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. GIVEN LIMITED RESPONSE IN SEA HEIGHTS THUS FAR I
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND REPLACED IT WITH AN
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 5
FOOT SEAS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...W-SW WINDS DOWN AROUND 10 KTS WED MORNING
WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
LATE THURS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED INTO THURS AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FIRST DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND THEN DUE TO APPROACH OF COLD FRONT BY LATE THURS.
EXPECT SW WINDS BACK UP TO A SOLID 15 KTS BY THURS AFTN WITH SEAS
UP AROUND 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND PEAKING JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THURS EVENING AROUND 6 FT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LAST FROM THURS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTH AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
LATE FRI AND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
138 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN AT THE COAST SHOULD
TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
WEAK ASCENT CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF PVA AND LOW
LEVEL JETTING NOW ENCOUNTERING STABILIZED AIR. AS A RESULT
CONVECTION ALL BUT GONE AND NOW PRECIP HAS A MORE STRATIFORM
CHARACTER. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AT THIS POINT IS HOW LONG PRECIP
LINGERS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY ADDITIONAL MANAGES TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM. LATEST RUNS OF LOCAL HRRR AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT THIS CURRENT BATCH WILL BE THE LAST AND POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED DOWNWARD AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 06Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE COLUMN WILL BE DRIER DURING TUESDAY...AND
MORE-SO WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPERIENCED TODAY
BECOMES WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY. STILL ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT NOT AS MUCH AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY. VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE HEAT INDEX APPROACHING
100F MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY 100-103F FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SC.
MINS WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT WITH THE WARMEST MINS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A WELL-DEFINED
SANDHILLS TROUGH AS WELL AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WILL KEEP POPS IN A
GENERAL 40-50 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA COINCIDENT WITH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. PRECIP
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH RAPID MID-LEVEL DRYING. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE A SOLID 7-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY JUNE. A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ACT TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING BEHIND THE
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS FORMING A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL AFFECT THE FLO/LBT AIRPORTS
PERIODICALLY THROUGH 12Z. LATEST TAF IS AN ATTEMPT TO TIME THIS
STRATUS USING SATELLITE DATA AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...AS MOS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS VERY WELL AT ALL. CLOSER TO THE
COAST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. STRATOCUMULUS COULD
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT CLOUD BASES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET.
AFTER DAYBREAK...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEABREEZE...WITH SOME SFC
GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT TOO FAR FROM
PRIOR FORECASTS...SEAS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF FEET SHORT. I WILL
GIVE THESE SEA HEIGHTS ANOTHER TWO HOURS TO RESPOND BEFORE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE NC WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
HAVING SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THE FORECAST WINDS AND EVEN MORESO THE
RESULTING SEAS. WEAK LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATER THROUGH THE PERIOD
TO BE HARD PRESSED TO MIX DOWN MUCH OF THE 30KT 92MB JET DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT...WHICH ALSO APPEARS TO FORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. MORE TROUBLING IS THAT WNA GUIDANCE AND
SWAN BOTH AS OF 03Z TRYING TO SHOW NEARLY 6 FT SEAS AT 41013 WHERE
REALITY IS 3.5FT. HAVE TRENDED SEAS DOWN IN THE VERY NEAR TERM BUT
DID NOT WANT TO CANCEL ADVISORY JUST YET.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX AND THE WIND WILL VEER AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE A NOTCH AGAIN
DURING WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL FETCH SUPPORTS MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER CAPE FEAR
WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK OFF THE COAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY
EVENING...AND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX
BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AND CROSS ON
FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT ROUND CROSSING THE
CWA. AS THE SECOND ROUND MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY RAIN COOLED
ENVIRONMENT...INSTABILITY IS WANING AND ONLY CHANCE THUNDER WILL
OCCUR. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE A BIT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OFFSHORE BY EARLY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL
AND OF CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING SOUTH OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY
TO ALONG COASTAL SC. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH LINES OF
CONVECTION WHICH PULLS THE FIRST LINE OFF THE OBX AROUND MIDNIGHT
WHILE THE SECOND LINE ADVECTS INTO SWRN COUNTIES AROUND THE SAME
TIME...OFF THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING SO THE THREAT OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS
DIMINISHING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...THOUGH
RAIN COOLED AIR HAS ALREADY COOLED INLAND LOCATIONS TO NEAR MIN
TEMPS AND EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON
TUE...BUT UNTIL THEN...CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL CONT CLRG FROM W
TO EAST. IT WILL RMN QUITE BREEZY ON TUE WITH SW WINDS IN THE
15-25 MPH RANGE ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH UPR 80S INLAND AND LWR 80S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BECOME DRY AND HOT BEHIND
UPPER TROUGH/WEAK COOL FRONT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AS NC
BRIEFLY COMES UNDER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION DUE TO
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 90S AND SUPPRESS DIURNAL CONVECTION.
FOR WED NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL NOSE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW MIGRATE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ANY SEVERE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM MAY RIDE ESE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. THINKING
THAT BULK OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER...THOUGH A FEW MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FA/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS HERE FOR
LATE WED NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INC FURTHER ON THUR AS WSW FLOW STRENGTHENS
AND BRINGS IN HOTTER TEMPS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO SOME CASES UPPER 90S...AND
WITH TD VALS INTO THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...105 DEGREES OR HIGHER THUR AFTERNOON.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COMPACT BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THUR EVENING. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING SFC LOW TRANSLATING EASTWARD BETWEEN THE TIDEWATER OF VA
AND THE CAPE MAY AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE DYNAMICS FOR
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY
THUR AND ESP THUR EVENING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AVAILABLE COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT.
SHARP COOL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY FRI MORNING BRINGING
PLEASANTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH HAVE IMPACTED SOME TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. A BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
AND DIMINISHED. THEREFORE...THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WITH BE
STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.
LOOKS AS IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE EVEN BEHIND
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. HENCE...HAVE KEPT MOST TAF SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS AND EVEN THINK POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS COULD FORM EARLY
IN THE MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR TAF SITES (KISO ESPECIALLY).
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION LIMITED. FEEL MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
TOMORROW WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE DAY. ANTICIPATE A BKN DECK AROUND 5KFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY TOMORROW EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP AND
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL ERODE WITH LACK OF HEATING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS)
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN LATE DAY THUR AND
INTO THU NIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH 10-15KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH 15-25KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS. SEAS ARE SLOW BUILDING WITH CURRENT OBS INDICATING 3-5FT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENTS CONTINUE THROUGH TUE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT. EXPECT SWLY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED NORTHERN
WATERS TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR ALL WATERS...THOUGH
MAINLY FOR GUSTS IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STRONG SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND
VEER WESTERLY LATE TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO WASH OUT AND DECREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AND INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY
THUR YET AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT AND LOW
PRES AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INC TO SCA CRITERIA...SEAS
WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING 6-8 FT WITH SOME 9 FT SETS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS. POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING CLOSE TO 6 FEET NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...SK/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC/TL/LEP
LONG TERM...BTC/LEP
AVIATION...SK/TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/DAG/TL/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE PROGRESS EAST THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE BEING WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY AS THEY MIGRATE CLOSER TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A RIDGE AT H5. THE 13.00Z NAM GENERALLY
CAPTURES THIS TREND BY KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE ARE STILL HINTS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE THEM GETTING
PULLED WITH LATER UPDATES IF RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
CONVECTION DIMINISHING AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENDED...WITH DRY CONDITIONS NOW IN
PLACE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEY HAVE BEEN MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS EAST
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST JUST IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAKES IT THAT FAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
THERE SHOULD BE NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD AS NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION OVER MONTANA COULD NOSE ITS WAY INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING SO ONLY
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CREST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS...NEAR SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA
SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAY SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING AS WELL. THEREFORE...ONLY INDICATED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. 850 MB CAPE VALUES OF
800-1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL THREAT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 12 C OR GREATER DO ADVECT NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH MAY BE A LIMIT TO HAIL GROWTH POTENTIAL.
ON FRIDAY...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NOW FILLING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE PRIMARY
LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH THE 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/GEM CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 83...WITH THE 12 UTC NAM AND 15
UTC SREF ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
FRONTAL POSITIONING COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTY IF SKIES WILL CLEAR
TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO
BE AVAILABLE. THEREAFTER...A DRY BUT WINDY SATURDAY IS FORECAST IN
THE DRY SLOT OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH A
BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN CUMULUS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT EXPECT THAT TO BECOME LESS PREVALENT
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO MOST AERODROMES TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE REGION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
706 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENDED...WITH DRY CONDITIONS NOW IN
PLACE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEY HAVE BEEN MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS EAST
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST JUST IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAKES IT THAT FAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
THERE SHOULD BE NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD AS NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION OVER MONTANA COULD NOSE ITS WAY INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING SO ONLY
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CREST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS...NEAR SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA
SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAY SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING AS WELL. THEREFORE...ONLY INDICATED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. 850 MB CAPE VALUES OF
800-1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL THREAT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 12 C OR GREATER DO ADVECT NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH MAY BE A LIMIT TO HAIL GROWTH POTENTIAL.
ON FRIDAY...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NOW FILLING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE PRIMARY
LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH THE 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/GEM CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 83...WITH THE 12 UTC NAM AND 15
UTC SREF ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
FRONTAL POSITIONING COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTY IF SKIES WILL CLEAR
TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO
BE AVAILABLE. THEREAFTER...A DRY BUT WINDY SATURDAY IS FORECAST IN
THE DRY SLOT OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH A
BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN CUMULUS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT EXPECT THAT TO BECOME LESS PREVALENT
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO MOST AERODROMES TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE REGION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1021 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...RIDE OVER
WARM FRONT INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PASS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF
CWA...HOWEVER INCHING EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH TIME. CONTINUED
RELYING ON HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE...BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND DECREASED POPS
SOME ACROSS THE SOUTH UNTIL PRE-DAWN WHEN CONVECTING COMPLEX
FORMING NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH. HAVE THAT COMPLEX GETTING TO WESTERN CWA
BORDER 09-10Z...AND INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS 13-14Z. NO CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME GRIDS TOMORROW...GRIDS STILL ON PAR WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PLOWS EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THIS FORECAST FOR BOTH SEVERE POTENTIAL THRU
EARLY TONIGHT...AND POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS...THEY ARE NOT WITH QPF FIELDS...WITH
THE PROBLEM BEING MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES UPSTREAM. FIRST...AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING
OVER VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE IN SCATTERED STORMS THRU THIS EVENING
EVERYWHERE GIVEN SPC SLIGHT RISK. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THINK THIS
WILL INITIATE A COMPLEX LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. WILL TARGET
THIS AREA WITH BEST POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A BAND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY CONVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF AND
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THOUGH NOT
LIKELY SEVERE. HOWEVER...THIS ADDED CONVECTION ON TOP OF THE WHAT
OCCURS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH AND EAST MAY BRING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH AND EAST
PORTION OF OUR AREA FROM 00Z THRU 18Z THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 FOR
LOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY IN THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY. EXPECT
ANY LINGERING SHRA TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED
H500 VORT MAX WILL SHARPEN UP THE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND SLOW EASTERN PROGRESSION A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER RIPPLE
TO DROP DOWN THE BACK SIDE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY SEEN IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND
INCLUDED A MINIMAL POP. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE FORECAST WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A NEEDED DRY BREAK FOR THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL...AND
SOME VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEAMPLIFYING...AND THEN
REESTABLISHING...THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DURING THE INTERVENING PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW...A COUPLE OF
MIDLEVEL WAVES WILL BE RIDING ACROSS. THE FIRST WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SECOND...MORE
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND WILL BE DISTURBANCE THAT DIGS THE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE INDIVIDUALLY PROGRESSIVE...BUT RAIN TOTALS MAY
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GET THE MOST
RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
USED HPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE HEAVILY FOR THIS PERIOD. SUGGESTED
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT FAR FROM MEX/ENSEMBLE NUMBERS AND DID NOT
STRAY FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FIRST IS IF
ANY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR NW CAN SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT NORTHERN TAF SITES. INCLUDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR CKB AND
EKN WITH THIS...BUT MAY NEED TO AMEND FOR PKB IF STORMS SINK
SOUTH SOONER. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS.
FARTHER SOUTH...LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN MORE TRANQUIL FOR
THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH VERY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IFR AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
CELLS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD
VARY...ALONG WITH THE LOWER CATEGORY CEILINGS THAT WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND THE STORMS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/13/13
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H M H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
LINGERING IFR POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ009>011-
016>020-027>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/CL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
737 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...RIDE OVER
WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PASS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NW. CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
THIS OUT OF OUR CWA...STAYING NORTH...HOWEVER NEAR TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT RIGHT TURN. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE
21Z HRRR AND RAP MODELS TO UPDATE POPS BRINGING THIS ACTIVITY DOWN
INTO NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING...WHILE REDUCING
POPS SOME ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE CAP HAS WON OUT.
HOWEVER...DID STILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH...THINKING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS COULD GET SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THIS FORECAST FOR BOTH SEVERE POTENTIAL THRU
EARLY TONIGHT...AND POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS...THEY ARE NOT WITH QPF FIELDS...WITH
THE PROBLEM BEING MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES UPSTREAM. FIRST...AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING
OVER VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE IN SCATTERED STORMS THRU THIS EVENING
EVERYWHERE GIVEN SPC SLIGHT RISK. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THINK THIS
WILL INITIATE A COMPLEX LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. WILL TARGET
THIS AREA WITH BEST POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A BAND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY CONVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF AND
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THOUGH NOT
LIKELY SEVERE. HOWEVER...THIS ADDED CONVECTION ON TOP OF THE WHAT
OCCURS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH AND EAST MAY BRING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH AND EAST
PORTION OF OUR AREA FROM 00Z THRU 18Z THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 FOR
LOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY IN THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY. EXPECT
ANY LINGERING SHRA TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED
H500 VORT MAX WILL SHARPEN UP THE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND SLOW EASTERN PROGRESSION A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER RIPPLE
TO DROP DOWN THE BACK SIDE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY SEEN IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND
INCLUDED A MINIMAL POP. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE FORECAST WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A NEEDED DRY BREAK FOR THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL...AND
SOME VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEAMPLIFYING...AND THEN
REESTABLISHING...THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DURING THE INTERVENING PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW...A COUPLE OF
MIDLEVEL WAVES WILL BE RIDING ACROSS. THE FIRST WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SECOND...MORE
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND WILL BE DISTURBANCE THAT DIGS THE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE INDIVIDUALLY PROGRESSIVE...BUT RAIN TOTALS MAY
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GET THE MOST
RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
USED HPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE HEAVILY FOR THIS PERIOD. SUGGESTED
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT FAR FROM MEX/ENSEMBLE NUMBERS AND DID NOT
STRAY FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FIRST IS IF
ANY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR NW CAN SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT NORTHERN TAF SITES. INCLUDED SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR CKB AND
EKN WITH THIS...BUT MAY NEED TO AMEND FOR PKB IF STORMS SINK
SOUTH SOONER. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS.
FARTHER SOUTH...LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN MORE TRANQUIL FOR
THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH VERY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IFR AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
CELLS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD
VARY...ALONG WITH THE LOWER CATEGORY CEILINGS THAT WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND THE STORMS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
LINGERING IFR POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ009>011-
016>020-027>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/CL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1203 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
LATE FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW OVR THE MIDWEST HAS
PRODUCED A FEW -SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING.
DEVELOPING CONVECTION RIDING EASTWARD ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY
OVR OHIO VALLEY IS OF THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR OUR SW
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH ALL MDL DATA INDICATES GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN SW OF OUR CWA...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAP SIMULATED
RADAR SUGGEST OUR S TIER COUNTIES COULD BE AFFECTED BY STRONG
TSRA LATER TONIGHT...AS STRENGTHENING LL JET LIFTS INTO THE
AREA...SUPPLYING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. 18Z NAMPARA...WHICH IS
CAPTURING PLACEMENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION WELL...SUGGESTS FIRST
BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL CLIP OUR S COUNTIES BTWN 04Z-10Z.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY ROB MOISTURE FEED FOR A WHILE
TONIGHT...KEEPING MOST OF CENTRAL PA DRY...BULK OF MDL DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE ARRIVAL OF LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS
PWATS WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HVY RAIN NORTH OF WARM
FRONT OVR CENTRAL/NORTHERN PA LATE TONIGHT.
WHAT SEEMS CERTAIN IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
VIGOROUS. IT HAS ALL THE LOOK AND FEEL OF A WINTER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONG COUPLED UPPER JET AND POTENT LOW LEVEL JET THAT SURGES
SUMMER TIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA.
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS WE
THINK THE RISK OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS CAUSING PROBLEMS
LOOKS REASONABLE. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE ARGUING AGAINST THE
TYPE OF WIDESPREAD NUMBERS NEEDED FOR FLOODING INCLUDE THE
SREF/GEFS...CONFINING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OF NEAR 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE PA/NY BORDER WITH MEAN QPF OF ONLY ARND 1 INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY BAD AT HANDLING CONVECTION
AND RECENT SOAKING RAINS...WE THOUGHT THE THREAT WARRANTED THE
WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS FCST TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTH/CENTRAL PA DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH A RAPID SURGE IN PWATS...CAPE AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR EXPECTED INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CHANGE RAPIDLY AS WE TRANSITION FROM A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
THREAT POSSIBLY INTO A SUPERCELL THREAT IF THE SFC LOW CAN MANAGE
TO TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS BULK OF MDL DATA SUGGEST. BEST
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMES TOGETHER OVR THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY ON THURSDAY...WITH SREF/GEFS CAPES NR 1500 J/KG AND
STRONG 0-1KM AND DEEP LYR SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF APPEARS TO FALL SHORT OF FFG...SOME
OPER RUNS SUGGEST HIGHER LOCALIZED TOTALS AND FLOODING STILL
POSSIBLE. MARFC NUMBERS INDICATE THE AREA CAN HANDLE A WIDESPREAD
1-2 INCHES OVR A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE RAIN TO COME IN SHORT INTENSE BURSTS...SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL AS USUAL BE HANDLED IN THE VERY SHORT TERM
AND ADDRESSED AS IT POSSIBLY DEVELOPS THURSDAY. EXACTLY WHERE THE
LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN INVADE WILL
DELINEATE THE THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY.
DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AFT...GIVEN
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SE...AND COLD AIR ALOFT.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY THIS WEEKEND.
DID BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
NOW...IN LINE WITH OTHER OFFICES AND NEW GUIDANCE.
STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY...AS WE ARE IN
THE WARM SECTOR...BUT WEAK WAVES ALOFT MOVING IN.
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO PA ON TUE...STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
WENT WITH A DRY DAY ON WED...WITH COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROCEED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN REACHES WRN SECTIONS.
FOCUS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY TURNS TO POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND REDUCED CONDS WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE IMPACTS FROM
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND SHEAR BY SUNRISE INTO THU EVE.
OUTLOOK...
THU AFT-THU NIGHT...LARGE IMPACTS FROM STRONG TSTMS AND WIND
SHEAR LIKELY. OTHERWISE SHOWERS CONTINUE. REDUCTIONS ALL AREAS THU
AFT- EVE...THEN WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS NW HALF THU NIGHT.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
LATE FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW OVR THE MIDWEST HAS
PRODUCED A FEW -SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING.
DEVELOPING CONVECTION RIDING EASTWARD ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY
OVR OHIO VALLEY IS OF THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR OUR SW
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH ALL MDL DATA INDICATES GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN SW OF OUR CWA...LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAP SIMULATED
RADAR SUGGEST OUR S TIER COUNTIES COULD BE AFFECTED BY STRONG
TSRA LATER TONIGHT...AS STRENGTHENING LL JET LIFTS INTO THE
AREA...SUPPLYING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. 18Z NAMPARA...WHICH IS
CAPTURING PLACEMENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION WELL...SUGGESTS FIRST
BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL CLIP OUR S COUNTIES BTWN 04Z-10Z.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY ROB MOISTURE FEED FOR A WHILE
TONIGHT...KEEPING MOST OF CENTRAL PA DRY...BULK OF MDL DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE ARRIVAL OF LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS
PWATS WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HVY RAIN NORTH OF WARM
FRONT OVR CENTRAL/NORTHERN PA LATE TONIGHT.
WHAT SEEMS CERTAIN IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
VIGOROUS. IT HAS ALL THE LOOK AND FEEL OF A WINTER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONG COUPLED UPPER JET AND POTENT LOW LEVEL JET THAT SURGES
SUMMER TIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA.
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS WE
THINK THE RISK OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS CAUSING PROBLEMS
LOOKS REASONABLE. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE ARGUING AGAINST THE
TYPE OF WIDESPREAD NUMBERS NEEDED FOR FLOODING INCLUDE THE
SREF/GEFS...CONFINING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OF NEAR 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE PA/NY BORDER WITH MEAN QPF OF ONLY ARND 1 INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY BAD AT HANDLING CONVECTION
AND RECENT SOAKING RAINS...WE THOUGHT THE THREAT WARRANTED THE
WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS FCST TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTH/CENTRAL PA DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH A RAPID SURGE IN PWATS...CAPE AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR EXPECTED INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CHANGE RAPIDLY AS WE TRANSITION FROM A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
THREAT POSSIBLY INTO A SUPERCELL THREAT IF THE SFC LOW CAN MANAGE
TO TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS BULK OF MDL DATA SUGGEST. BEST
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMES TOGETHER OVR THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY ON THURSDAY...WITH SREF/GEFS CAPES NR 1500 J/KG AND
STRONG 0-1KM AND DEEP LYR SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF APPEARS TO FALL SHORT OF FFG...SOME
OPER RUNS SUGGEST HIGHER LOCALIZED TOTALS AND FLOODING STILL
POSSIBLE. MARFC NUMBERS INDICATE THE AREA CAN HANDLE A WIDESPREAD
1-2 INCHES OVR A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE RAIN TO COME IN SHORT INTENSE BURSTS...SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL AS USUAL BE HANDLED IN THE VERY SHORT TERM
AND ADDRESSED AS IT POSSIBLY DEVELOPS THURSDAY. EXACTLY WHERE THE
LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN INVADE WILL
DELINEATE THE THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY.
DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AFT...GIVEN
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SE...AND COLD AIR ALOFT.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY THIS WEEKEND.
DID BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
NOW...IN LINE WITH OTHER OFFICES AND NEW GUIDANCE.
STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY...AS WE ARE IN
THE WARM SECTOR...BUT WEAK WAVES ALOFT MOVING IN.
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO PA ON TUE...STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
WENT WITH A DRY DAY ON WED...WITH COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING OVER SWRN TERMINALS
IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
FOCUS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY TURNS TO POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH IMPACTS BEGINNING THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LARGE AREA OF PRECIP OVERSPREADS REGION FROM THE
WEST AS NIGHT PROGRESSES. MODELS INDICATING THAT CIGS WILL
DETERIORATE AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE IMPACTS FROM STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND SHEAR INTO THU EVE.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU MORN...RAIN AND SCT TSTMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.
REDUCTIONS DEVELOPING...MAINLY WEST.
THU AFT-THU NIGHT...LARGE IMPACTS FROM STRONG TSTMS AND WIND SHEAR
LIKELY. OTHERWISE SHOWERS CONTINUE. REDUCTIONS ALL AREAS THU AFT-
EVE...THEN WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS NW HALF THU NIGHT.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1141 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MORE POTENT STORM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE A WEAK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS CROSSING THE
REGION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING IN ITS WAKE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
JUST A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
MIDDAY HOURS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SCENT AND SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST FOR THE SMALL POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
ABOUT MIDDAY ONWARD. THIS IS WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE IS AT THIS
TIME AND WHERE THE RAP SHOWS CAPES REBOUNDING UNDER THE
INSOLATION. SREF SHOWS SOME MODEST CAPE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SOME MODERATE SHEAR. SHOULD ANY STORMS MANAGE TO
FIRE...THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR SOME DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.
OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND 12C...OFF THE LATEST SREF AND
GEFS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL BECOME
CENTERED RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S TO
LOWER 60S.
SFC WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE HEADS OUR WAY FROM THE MIDWEST. INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE AXIS OF
POTENT...SWRLY LLVL WINDS /AND NOSE OF MUCH HIGHER PWATS/ PUSHES NE
AND OVER THIS DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WORTH NOTING IS THAT SPC HAS NEARLY THE WESTERN HALF OF PENN
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR DAY 3 /SPECIFICALLY LATER
WED AND WED NIGHT/.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG WSWRLY LLJ /AND
SUB-1000MB SFC LOW/ WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER.
LATEST...00Z/03Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
ARE CONVERGING ON A SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. DEEP UVVEL BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT
BRANCH OF AN UPPER JET LOCATED ACROSS NEW YORK AND SRN NEW ENGLAND
WILL AID IN STRONG ASCENT OF THE HIGH PWAT AIR /1.5-2 INCHES/ OVER
THE NEARLY EAST/WEST QUASI STNRY OR SFC WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1 INCH OR GRATER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. 12-24 SREF PROB FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER
RAINFALL IS 60 AND 90 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2
TO 2/3RDS OF PENN.
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR /NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PENN TURNPIKE/... SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL DEVELOP WITH MUCAPES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOST ANOMALOUS
/PLUS 3 SIGMA/ WSW 850 MB FLOW.
A RIBBON OF MDTLY HIGH...0-1KM EHI OF AROUND 2M2/S2 MAY DEVELOP NEAR
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO POSE A
THREAT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS FROM THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HATCHES IN ONLY OUR
FAR SERN COUNTIES IN THEIR DAY 3 SVR OUTLOOK...BUT SEE NO REASON AT
THIS POINT NOT TO PAINT THE CHC FOR SOME STRONG-SVR STORMS A FEW
LAYER OF COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
THE NORTH-SOUTH SFC TEMP GRADIENT MAY TURN OUT TO BE SHARPER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN OUR GRIDDED DATABASE...ESPECIALLY IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS FORM ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND THE NORTH STAYS RAINY
FOR THE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CURRENT 13F SPREAD
COULD STRETCH TO 16-18F IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO MATERIALIZES.
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING CFRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER SUSQ REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
MAINTAINING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW LINGERING TSRA IN
THE 22Z THU- 04Z FRI TIMEFRAME NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF A KAVP...TO
KSEG AND KTHV LINE.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A GUSTY NW
BREEZE DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING FROM THE 50S TO 40S. NOT A LOT OF
SFC CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...SO ITS HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS GOING ON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S /ABOUT 3-5F
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS/ WILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.
FOR NOW...EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE MAINLY DRY.
SOME CHC OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY...AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SE.
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT REAL
DRY...HOT SPELLS ON TAP...AS WAS THE CASE THE OTHER WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN PA AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL
BRING SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE
TO DEAL WITH RESTRICTIONS AT MOST SITES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
16-19Z TIME FRAME.
WNW WINDS WILL GUST 15-25 MPH THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR TONIGHT INTO WED...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN FOG
AROUND SUNRISE WED.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RETURN WED NIGHT...LEADING TO DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS IN ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH TSTMS POSS...ESP WEST.
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPANDING TO ALL BUT SE.
THU...RAIN. SCT TSTMS NORTH...TSTMS LIKELY SOUTH. RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE ALL AREAS.
FRI...CHANCE OF A SHOWER. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MORE POTENT STORM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE A WEAK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS CROSSING THE
REGION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING IN ITS WAKE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
JUST A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
MIDDAY HOURS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SCENT AND SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST FOR THE SMALL POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
ABOUT MIDDAY ONWARD. THIS IS WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE IS AT THIS
TIME AND WHERE THE RAP SHOWS CAPES REBOUNDING UNDER THE
INSOLATION. SREF SHOWS SOME MODEST CAPE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SOME MODERATE SHEAR. SHOULD ANY STORMS MANAGE TO
FIRE...THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR SOME DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.
OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND 12C...OFF THE LATEST SREF AND
GEFS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL BECOME
CENTERED RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S TO
LOWER 60S.
SFC WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE HEADS OUR WAY FROM THE MIDWEST. INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE AXIS OF
POTENT...SWRLY LLVL WINDS /AND NOSE OF MUCH HIGHER PWATS/ PUSHES NE
AND OVER THIS DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WORTH NOTING IS THAT SPC HAS NEARLY THE WESTERN HALF OF PENN
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR DAY 3 /SPECIFICALLY LATER
WED AND WED NIGHT/.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG WSWRLY LLJ /AND
SUB-1000MB SFC LOW/ WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER.
LATEST...00Z/03Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
ARE CONVERGING ON A SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. DEEP UVVEL BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT
BRANCH OF AN UPPER JET LOCATED ACROSS NEW YORK AND SRN NEW ENGLAND
WILL AID IN STRONG ASCENT OF THE HIGH PWAT AIR /1.5-2 INCHES/ OVER
THE NEARLY EAST/WEST QUASI STNRY OR SFC WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1 INCH OR GRATER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. 12-24 SREF PROB FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER
RAINFALL IS 60 AND 90 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2
TO 2/3RDS OF PENN.
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR /NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PENN TURNPIKE/... SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL DEVELOP WITH MUCAPES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOST ANOMALOUS
/PLUS 3 SIGMA/ WSW 850 MB FLOW.
A RIBBON OF MDTLY HIGH...0-1KM EHI OF AROUND 2M2/S2 MAY DEVELOP NEAR
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO POSE A
THREAT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS FROM THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HATCHES IN ONLY OUR
FAR SERN COUNTIES IN THEIR DAY 3 SVR OUTLOOK...BUT SEE NO REASON AT
THIS POINT NOT TO PAINT THE CHC FOR SOME STRONG-SVR STORMS A FEW
LAYER OF COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
THE NORTH-SOUTH SFC TEMP GRADIENT MAY TURN OUT TO BE SHARPER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN OUR GRIDDED DATABASE...ESPECIALLY IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS FORM ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND THE NORTH STAYS RAINY
FOR THE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CURRENT 13F SPREAD
COULD STRETCH TO 16-18F IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO MATERIALIZES.
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING CFRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER SUSQ REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
MAINTAINING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW LINGERING TSRA IN
THE 22Z THU- 04Z FRI TIMEFRAME NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF A KAVP...TO
KSEG AND KTHV LINE.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A GUSTY NW
BREEZE DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING FROM THE 50S TO 40S. NOT A LOT OF
SFC CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...SO ITS HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS GOING ON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S /ABOUT 3-5F
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS/ WILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.
FOR NOW...EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE MAINLY DRY.
SOME CHC OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY...AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SE.
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT REAL
DRY...HOT SPELLS ON TAP...AS WAS THE CASE THE OTHER WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM THE WEST THIS MID MORNING AS UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA. ALONG WITH A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD OF LOWERING CLOUDS...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH. THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT IN THE
SE...IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE WILL BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH ALL
AREAS REACHING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS DO PICK UP BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND WINDS COULD
GUST TO 15-25 MPH.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS /EXCEPT LOCAL REDUCTIONS FOR FOG
AROUND SUNRISE WED/. LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS WED
NIGHT...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN ANOTHER SOAKING
RAIN ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS SW WITH
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSS.
WED NIGHT...RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH TSTMS POSS...ESP WEST.
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPANDING TO ALL BUT SE.
THU...RAIN. SCT TSTMS NORTH / TSTMS LIKELY SOUTH. RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE ALL AREAS.
FRI...CHANCE OF A SHOWER. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...NO SIG WX. VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...MOVING
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STILL SEEING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...MAKING THE MOST OF WHAT MEAGER
AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE E OF THE MTNS. WILL HAVE TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP THROUGH DAYBREAK MOVING W TO E.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPANDING LATE THIS
EVENING UNDER A TROUGH AXIS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED FROM THE
EARLIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE UNFAVORABLE
HOUR. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE SUPPORTING A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE...AND THE MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WITH THE
PASSING WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
HAS BETTER COVERAGE SURVIVING EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...BUT IT
DID NOT INITIALIZE PARTICULARLY WELL. THE LATEST SPC SREF POST
PROCESSED TSTM GUIDANCE FROM 21Z INITIALIZED QUITE WELL AS WE
APPROACH 03Z...AND IT HAS DIMINISHING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE
TSTMS FROM THE MTNS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED...BUT
WITH GENERALLY HIGHER END CHANCES IN THE WRN MTNS TO SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THE SE PIEDMONT. A FEW OF THE SURVIVING STORMS COULD SHOW SOME
ORGANIZATION BUT THE WIND/HAIL THREAT LOOKS QUITE MARGINAL AT THIS
HOUR.
W/NW FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO DRY
CONDITIONS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CAPE DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A DECENT MID-LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS UNDERNEATH
THE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHICH STRENGTHENS FARTHER
TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...MODEL QPF IS RESPONSE IS MINIMAL.
NEVERTHELESS... SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM IN RESPONSE
TO RISING HEIGHTS...PROBABLY A CAT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGIES WILL DROP INTO THE CWA IN NWLY
UPPER FLOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON OUR AREA BEING
IN THE PATH OF FAVORABLE MCS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. BOTH THE
GFS/NAM HAVE LIGHT QPF RESPONSE...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE NC MTNS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY WED NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE CWA THU
NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF
RESPONSE LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE DUE TO PREVAILING W/WSW DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. HENCE...POPS REMAIN IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FAVORING IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU NIGHT. USING MODEL BLEND..TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OVER
THE WEEKEND...INCREASING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE PIEDMONT WILL
STAY DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE DIFFERENCE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
DEVELOPING IFR STRATUS DECK MOVING NWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC AT
05Z...EVIDENTLY DUE TO SOME WEAK UPSLOPE AND UVV AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE. WILL START OUT IFR AS A RESULT. THINK THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE
AND THE VEERING OF THE WIND AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE WILL SCATTER OUT
THE LOW STRATUS DECK BEFORE OPERATIONS GET BUSY AROUND 09Z TO
10Z...BUT WE COULD STILL HAVE SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THUNDER AS LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
VERY SPORADIC IN THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE WIND
SHOULD REMAIN SW. ONCE THE WAVE IS OFF TO THE EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AROUND DAYBREAK AND STAY SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT TO SOMETHING N OF W DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE DAY...BUT SOME LEE TROFFING COULD KEEP IT SW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON WITH A CROSSWIND. BY SUNSET...THE WIND SHOULD BECOME
NW.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR DEAL WITH IFR STRATUS DECK...WHICH THE LAMP
GUIDANCE SHOWS PAST DAYBREAK. NOT SURE IT WILL HANG ON THAT
LONG...SO THE PREVAILING IFR E OF THE BLUE RIDGE BECOMES A TEMPO
AFTER ABOUT 09Z AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP. THINK LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AROUND SUNRISE OR IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER.
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST SO IT WILL ONLY GET A VCSH
MENTION EARLY. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO W OR NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT WITH A DISTURBANCE BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RIDGING WILL RETURN TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT MED 66% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 66% MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 89% MED 70% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 84% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 69% MED 76% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 63% HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST SD HAS ENDED...SO DROPPED
POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. 12Z
SOUNDING FOR KUNR SHOWS ABUNDANT CAPE...DRY AIR IN MID
LEVELS...AND ADEQUATE DEEP SHEAR INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL. HOWEVER, A VERY STRONG CAP
IS IN PLACE WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND FRONTAL INVERSION
BOTH EVIDENT. AS SHORT WAVE OVER UT THIS MORNING MOVES FAIRLY
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
TO WEAKEN THE CAP. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR MODEL AND OTHER CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN OVER WYOMING
COUNTIES AROUND 21Z AND OVER XTRM WESTERN SD AROUND 00Z ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO DVLP. HRRR SUGGEST QUICK EVOLUTION TO MCS...THUS
STRONG WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. WE WILL
RELEASE AN AFTN SOUNDING...AROUND 20Z TO CHECK ON CAP STRENGTH.
OTHER THAN POPS AND WX...FCST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
UTAH. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITHIN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS WYOMING INTO NE COLORADO. STRONG THETA E
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR K2WX TO KMBG. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA.
GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP THIS MORNING AS IT QUICKLY
PUSHES NORTHEAST TOWARD WYOMING. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE MAIN WAVE WILL CROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
CAPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. SBCAPE
REACHING WELL ABOVE 2000 J/KG OVER MOST OF THE CWA. CAPPING WILL
WEAKEN INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
INCREASING AS THE WAVE PUSHES THROUGH. STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. STORMS THIS EVENING WILL EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS
EVENING...AND PROPAGATE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE A CONCERN WITH THE MCS AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL SD.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS COMBINES WITH STRONG THETA E
ADVECTION. CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARD RETROGRESSION OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MOST OF AGGRESSIVE PER
THIS...SHIFTING A STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW INFLUENCE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND FRI/S TROUGH...PER A STRONGER MID LEVEL VORT MAX IN THE
SUN-MON PERIOD. PAC NW/EASTERN PAC TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN THE
PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM ACTIVE FLOW. HENCE...EVEN IF RIDGE
RETROGRESSION OCCURS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY ACTIVE
FLOW WITH AMPLE LL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HENCE...HAVE RETAINED
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WITH CONTINUED
INDICATIONS FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT TIMES IN THE
PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD GIVEN
IMPULSE LADEN WESTERLY FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH ANY DISTURBANCE
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AT THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE EXPECTED CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A DEEP SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT SUPPORTED WELL IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
AT THIS TIME. KEPT TEMPS AT OR AROUND SEASONAL NORMS IN THE PERIOD
WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WCNTRL-SWRN-SCNTRL SD WHERE MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCES A WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD. OTHERWISE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO NERN WY 21-03Z AND WRN SD
23Z-06Z. THESE STORMS WILL BRING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS...AS
WELL AS LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. THE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A
LARGE SYSTEM OVER WRN SD BY 03Z...AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MOST
OF WRN SD DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARBER
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BUNKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST SD HAS ENDED...SO DROPPED
POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. 12Z
SOUNDING FOR KUNR SHOWS ABUNDANT CAPE...DRY AIR IN MID
LEVELS...AND ADEQUATE DEEP SHEAR INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL. HOWEVER, A VERY STRONG CAP
IS IN PLACE WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND FRONTAL INVERSION
BOTH EVIDENT. AS SHORT WAVE OVER UT THIS MORNING MOVES FAIRLY
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
TO WEAKEN THE CAP. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR MODEL AND OTHER CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN OVER WYOMING
COUNTIES AROUND 21Z AND OVER XTRM WESTERN SD AROUND 00Z ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO DVLP. HRRR SUGGEST QUICK EVOLUTION TO MCS...THUS
STRONG WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. WE WILL
RELEASE AN AFTN SOUNDING...AROUND 20Z TO CHECK ON CAP STRENGTH.
OTHER THAN POPS AND WX...FCST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
UTAH. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITHIN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS WYOMING INTO NE COLORADO. STRONG THETA E
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR K2WX TO KMBG. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA.
GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP THIS MORNING AS IT QUICKLY
PUSHES NORTHEAST TOWARD WYOMING. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE MAIN WAVE WILL CROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
CAPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. SBCAPE
REACHING WELL ABOVE 2000 J/KG OVER MOST OF THE CWA. CAPPING WILL
WEAKEN INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
INCREASING AS THE WAVE PUSHES THROUGH. STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. STORMS THIS EVENING WILL EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS
EVENING...AND PROPAGATE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE A CONCERN WITH THE MCS AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL SD.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS COMBINES WITH STRONG THETA E
ADVECTION. CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARD RETROGRESSION OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MOST OF AGGRESSIVE PER
THIS...SHIFTING A STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW INFLUENCE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND FRI/S TROUGH...PER A STRONGER MID LEVEL VORT MAX IN THE
SUN-MON PERIOD. PAC NW/EASTERN PAC TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN THE
PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM ACTIVE FLOW. HENCE...EVEN IF RIDGE
RETROGRESSION OCCURS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY ACTIVE
FLOW WITH AMPLE LL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HENCE...HAVE RETAINED
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WITH CONTINUED
INDICATIONS FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT TIMES IN THE
PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD GIVEN
IMPULSE LADEN WESTERLY FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH ANY DISTURBANCE
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AT THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE EXPECTED CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A DEEP SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT SUPPORTED WELL IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
AT THIS TIME. KEPT TEMPS AT OR AROUND SEASONAL NORMS IN THE PERIOD
WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO NERN WY 21-03Z AND WRN SD 23Z-06Z.
THESE STORMS WILL BRING A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. THE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
BLKHLS AFTER 03Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF WRN SD AFTER 06Z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARBER
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BUNKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 04Z. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
WHILE DIMINISHING. EXPECTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING AFTER 10Z GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
BUT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
GOOD FLYING WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE MID STATE AS WE GO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
PATCHY FOG EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG PLATEAU IN THE
OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE
BEING REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE...NASHVILLE STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ON TUESDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. SINCE RECORD KEEPING
BEGAN BACK IN 1870 THE LATEST IN THE YEAR THAT NASHVILLE HAS
REACHED THE 90 DEGREE MARK WAS JULY 5TH 1893. THE EARLIEST WAS
APRIL 9TH 2011. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 90 DEGREES IN
NASHVILLE IS MAY 29TH.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION TO TERMINATE AT
CSV BY 03Z. FOLLOWING THIS...SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE CSV BY 12Z WITH
VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM...1-3SM POSSIBLE FOR CKV AND BNA. PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE FOR YOUR TUESDAY WITH JUST A FEW CLDS AT THE 4KFT LEVEL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
RADAR INDICATING THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
SPRINGFIELD TN SW THROUGH DICKSON COUNTY. LAPS DATA STILL SHOWING
ELEVATED HELICITY VALUES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THUS...WILL DELAY CANCELLING ADDITIONAL WATCH AREAS UNTIL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF CURRENT WATCH COUNTIES. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...SOME MINOR ROTATION WAS STILL INDICATED OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR STILL REFRAINS FROM ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUT WILL STILL WAIT FOR THE FROPA AND WILL THEN COMMENCE WITH
CANCELLATIONS.
OTHERWISE...INTENSE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLATEAU
CONTINUES. THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER...APPRECIABLE SHEAR STILL EXISTS
OVER THE CURRENT WATCH AREA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
941 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...ONLY EXTENDED IN
TIME THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR CONVECTION OUT WEST. OVERALL...THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF STATE
ROAD 16 TO DIMINISH DRG THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A TRANSITION TO
MVFR CEILINGS/LGT SFC WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM MIST/FOG (ESPECIALLY
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY.) BY MID MORNING...
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. DRG THE AFTN...ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281...
ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MODELS STILL SHOW
LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES)...ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTS FROM THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND OUT OF THE CWFA. AS A RESULT...POP FORECAST
WILL REFLECT HIGHER POPS OUT TO THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. POP GUIDANCE FROM MODELS
(ESPECIALLY ECMWF) LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH AS GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY
KEYING ON THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES (WHICH ARE VERY HIGH FOR THE
AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR). FOR THIS EVENING...WILL JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTERN AREAS (ECHOES SHOWING UP NOW ALBEIT
WEAK ONES AND MAY NOT LAST)...WITH RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING TOWARD
THE WATERS AND COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HRRR 4KM MODEL IS SHOWING
ANY ACTIVITY IN OUR CWFA THIS EVENING OUT BY 02Z (IF NOT EARLIER).
ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EASTERN AREAS
ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST MORE
PROXIMATE TO UPPER LOW. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL GO WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER
OF WESTERN FOUR COUNTIES. WITH MOISTURE VALUES SO HIGH AND
REMAINING SO FOR THE NEXT THREE PERIODS...SAW NO NEED TO SWAY TOO
MUCH FROM A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH DID GO A
BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT THAN TONIGHT OUT WEST WHERE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING RAINFALL
ACTIVITY IN THE WATERS TO PICK UP SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNRISE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE/DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
COVERAGE EVEN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT (AND MAINLY SOUTH) AS THE
MOISTURE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER GRADUALLY ENDING AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTH OF THE AREA. PWATS REMAIN HIGH INTO
THE EVENING ON FRIDAY BUT WITH UPPER SUPPORT LEAVING AND A BUILDING
GULF RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR OVER THE EAST WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BROADEN AND EXPAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME RIDGES
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICES COMMONLY
BETWEEN 105 AND 109 IN THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 95 80 96 76 / 20 30 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 93 75 94 75 / 10 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 76 95 77 100 80 / 20 40 30 20 20
ALICE 75 94 76 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 80 92 78 / 10 30 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 94 75 94 76 / 20 30 20 20 20
KINGSVILLE 78 95 78 97 76 / 20 30 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 91 80 92 79 / 20 30 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE BETWEEN KIAH AND KCXO BUT EXPECT THESE
TO END SHORTLY. 850 MB MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECREASE. THE
WARMEST 850-700 TEMPS ARE STILL NORTH AND WEST OF SE TX. 850 MB
TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW 20 C LOCALLY AND 700 MB TEMPS ARE NEAR 10 C.
MSTR ON THURSDAY LOOKS LESS THAN TODAY BUT FCST SOUNDINGS STILL
DON`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPPING. THINK ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND THIS IS AGAIN SUPPORTED BY THE RAP MODEL.
AS FOR TONIGHT...CIRRUS DEBRIS WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE WITH A
POSSIBLE LOWER DECK FORMING AROUND SUNRISE...MIXING OUT BY MID
MORNING. BUMPED MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST UP ON THURSDAY TO MATCH
TODAYS VALUES OTHERWISE THE GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE...AND JUST PATCHY FOG AT THE USUAL
LOCATIONS...MAINLY CXO. WILL LIKELY AGAIN SEE A BRIEF SCT TO BKN
CU LAYER AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...THEN JUST FEW TO SCT CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS
WEST OF THE AREA AND SEEMS THESE STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF BETTER
MOISTURE AND INTO DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER N TX.
WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK TOMORROW WILL BE DRY AREA WIDE. GFS DOES
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE OVER S TX AND LOWER TX COAST BUT
THINK IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE S PLAINS WILL REMAIN WITH ITS INFLUENCE BEING MORE
PROMINENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ALSO A BUT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW HIGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS STILL SOME GROUND MOISTURE FROM RECENT
RAINS WHICH MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN. THE MODELS KEEP A 594DB 500MB
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUT MOVE IT MORE OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO MISS
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. FRI INTO SAT WEAK UPPER LOW OVER MEX
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES OUT INTO W TX AND THEN THE S
PLAINS FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIDGE WEAKER WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS. ALSO NOTED AT 850MB THAT WINDS REMAIN MORE E/SE WITH
TEMPS AROUND 20C. MIXING THIS DOWN ACHIEVES MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPS
WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE IS ON TRACK WITH. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
94-96F RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MORE SE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW AND WEAKER RIDGE...UPPER 90S TO 100 WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. GRANTED THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN 96 AND 98/99 ESPECIALLY WHEN HEAT INDEX WILL BE IN LOW
100S ANYWAY. IT WILL FEEL LIKE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME IN SE TX. IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE THE RIDGE DOES BUILD BACK STRONGER FOR
EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLE THAT UPPER 90S MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
THAT TIME SINCE THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
39
MARINE...
DIURNAL PATTERN OF 10-15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS AT NIGHT
AND DECREASING DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE BAYS
WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET WILL BE THE RULE. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
ALL DEPICTING A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH TO LATCH
ONTO IN THE ATLANTIC TO GIVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
ATTM. 45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 95 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 94 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 90 80 90 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
723 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF STATE
ROAD 16 TO DIMINISH DRG THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A TRANSITION TO
MVFR CEILINGS/LGT SFC WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM MIST/FOG (ESPECIALLY
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY.) BY MID MORNING...
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. DRG THE AFTN...ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281...
ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MODELS STILL SHOW
LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES)...ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTS FROM THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND OUT OF THE CWFA. AS A RESULT...POP FORECAST
WILL REFLECT HIGHER POPS OUT TO THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. POP GUIDANCE FROM MODELS
(ESPECIALLY ECMWF) LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH AS GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY
KEYING ON THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES (WHICH ARE VERY HIGH FOR THE
AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR). FOR THIS EVENING...WILL JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTERN AREAS (ECHOES SHOWING UP NOW ALBEIT
WEAK ONES AND MAY NOT LAST)...WITH RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING TOWARD
THE WATERS AND COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HRRR 4KM MODEL IS SHOWING
ANY ACTIVITY IN OUR CWFA THIS EVENING OUT BY 02Z (IF NOT EARLIER).
ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EASTERN AREAS
ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST MORE
PROXIMATE TO UPPER LOW. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL GO WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER
OF WESTERN FOUR COUNTIES. WITH MOISTURE VALUES SO HIGH AND
REMAINING SO FOR THE NEXT THREE PERIODS...SAW NO NEED TO SWAY TOO
MUCH FROM A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH DID GO A
BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT THAN TONIGHT OUT WEST WHERE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING RAINFALL
ACTIVITY IN THE WATERS TO PICK UP SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNRISE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE/DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
COVERAGE EVEN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT (AND MAINLY SOUTH) AS THE
MOISTURE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER GRADUALLY ENDING AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTH OF THE AREA. PWATS REMAIN HIGH INTO
THE EVENING ON FRIDAY BUT WITH UPPER SUPPORT LEAVING AND A BUILDING
GULF RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR OVER THE EAST WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BROADEN AND EXPAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME RIDGES
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICES COMMONLY
BETWEEN 105 AND 109 IN THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 95 80 96 76 / 20 30 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 93 75 94 75 / 10 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 76 95 77 100 80 / 20 40 30 20 20
ALICE 75 94 76 98 76 / 10 30 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 80 92 78 / 10 30 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 94 75 94 76 / 20 30 20 20 20
KINGSVILLE 78 95 78 97 76 / 20 30 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 91 80 92 79 / 20 30 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL GENERALLY GO WITH VCTS ALL TAF LOCATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING BY 22Z AT KCRP AND AFTER 00Z ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS AS SEA-BREEZE PUSHES IN. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT (BASED ON CURRENT RADAR) AND KLRD...AND MONITOR
OTHER LOCATIONS BUT THINK OTHERS MAY BE OK. WILL SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THUNDER...OTHERWISE VFR ALL BUT KLRD (BECOMING
MVFR TWD 09Z) AS LOW CLOUDS COME INTO AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. WINDS GO GENERALLY 6 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 06Z ALL TERMINALS.
GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER AREA TOMORROW MORNING SO THINK VCSH
WILL BE NEEDED AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS AND
NOT MVFR (AGAIN EXCEPT AT KLRD BUT VFR AOA 16Z).
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CONVECTION GOING AS SEEN BY RADAR AND LOOK
OUT THE WINDOW...WITH CU FIELD WEAK TO MODERATE AND MID CLOUDS
COMING IN. SOME WEAK ECHOES ON THE RADAR SUGGEST BRIEF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT IS
ABOUT IT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY HRRR 4 KM MODEL...IS
STILL GOING WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER INLAND SECTIONS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS BUT KEPT 30/40 POPS FARTHER WEST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST GOING ALTHOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WESTERN AREAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO DO
ANOTHER UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES (AND POSSIBLY POPS) EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IF EITHER TEMP FORECAST DOES NOT PAN OUT (WEST TOO WARM
OR NORTHEAST TOO COOL)...AS WELL AS IF WESTERN POPS ARE TOO HIGH.
WINDS/CLOUDS LOOK OK.
MARINE...WITH MODELS SHOWING BEST FOCUS FARTHER WEST (INLAND)
LATER TODAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO ISOLATED OVER THE GULF WATERS.
OTHERWISE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME MARINE FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CONVECTION MAINLY
OCCURRING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ATTM...BUT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL TSRA RIGHT NOW...AND HAVE RETAINED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST TODAY AS
THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. MOSTLY ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. DEEP
MOISTURE LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWED PW
VALUE OF 2.25 INCHES. MODELS PROG THIS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS...WITH PW VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE EAST TODAY OVER TEXAS...UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH RIDGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TAKE THIS
FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING SOUTH TEXAS IN FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONVECTION HAS ALL
READY DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND PUSH INLAND. WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS WESTWARD ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER 00Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. GFS/NAM DISAGREE
WRT TO CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP LOW END
POPS AS SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/STORMS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WITH
FORECAST IS THE PROGRESSION OF INVERTED TROUGH/UPPER LOW AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. GFS CONTINUES TO PULL LOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN
ECMWF...AND THEREFORE CUTS OF PRECIP CHANCES MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN
ECMWF. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS...SO MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO
FORECAST ON THURSDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A LINGERING CHANCE
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS GFS HOLDS TO
DRIER SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES IN NEXT UPDATE THOUGH AS THE LOW PROGRESSES. THROUGH
THE PERIOD LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. FAIRLY
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SEASONAL HUMIDITIES AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND DURING THE AFTERNOONS LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 77 94 80 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 92 74 92 76 93 / 30 10 20 10 10
LAREDO 97 78 98 76 99 / 40 30 20 10 20
ALICE 95 74 95 76 97 / 30 20 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 90 78 90 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 10
COTULLA 95 74 96 76 97 / 40 30 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 95 76 94 79 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 89 79 90 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1037 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CONVECTION GOING AS SEEN BY RADAR AND LOOK
OUT THE WINDOW...WITH CU FIELD WEAK TO MODERATE AND MID CLOUDS
COMING IN. SOME WEAK ECHOES ON THE RADAR SUGGEST BRIEF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT IS
ABOUT IT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY HRRR 4 KM MODEL...IS
STILL GOING WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER INLAND SECTIONS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS BUT KEPT 30/40 POPS FARTHER WEST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST GOING ALTHOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WESTERN AREAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO DO
ANOTHER UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES (AND POSSIBLY POPS) EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IF EITHER TEMP FORECAST DOES NOT PAN OUT (WEST TOO WARM
OR NORTHEAST TOO COOL)...AS WELL AS IF WESTERN POPS ARE TOO HIGH.
WINDS/CLOUDS LOOK OK.
&&
.MARINE...WITH MODELS SHOWING BEST FOCUS FARTHER WEST (INLAND)
LATER TODAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO ISOLATED OVER THE GULF WATERS.
OTHERWISE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME MARINE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CONVECTION MAINLY
OCCURRING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ATTM...BUT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL TSRA RIGHT NOW...AND HAVE RETAINED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST TODAY AS
THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. MOSTLY ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. DEEP
MOISTURE LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWED PW
VALUE OF 2.25 INCHES. MODELS PROG THIS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS...WITH PW VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE EAST TODAY OVER TEXAS...UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH RIDGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TAKE THIS
FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING SOUTH TEXAS IN FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONVECTION HAS ALL
READY DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND PUSH INLAND. WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS WESTWARD ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER 00Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. GFS/NAM DISAGREE
WRT TO CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP LOW END
POPS AS SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/STORMS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WITH
FORECAST IS THE PROGRESSION OF INVERTED TROUGH/UPPER LOW AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. GFS CONTINUES TO PULL LOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN
ECMWF...AND THEREFORE CUTS OF PRECIP CHANCES MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN
ECMWF. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS...SO MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO
FORECAST ON THURSDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A LINGERING CHANCE
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS GFS HOLDS TO
DRIER SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES IN NEXT UPDATE THOUGH AS THE LOW PROGRESSES. THROUGH
THE PERIOD LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. FAIRLY
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SEASONAL HUMIDITIES AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND DURING THE AFTERNOONS LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 77 94 80 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 92 74 92 76 93 / 30 10 20 10 10
LAREDO 97 78 98 76 99 / 40 30 20 10 20
ALICE 95 74 95 76 97 / 30 20 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 90 78 90 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 10
COTULLA 95 74 96 76 97 / 40 30 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 95 76 94 79 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 89 79 90 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
912 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW POSSIBLY BRINGING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EARLIER STORMS WITH FAINT WAVE THAT CLIPPED THROUGH HAVE MOVED
SOUTH LEAVING THE REGION IN A CONTINUED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER
EVENING SOUNDINGS BUT WITH MOST FOCUS TO THE NORTH/NW. LATEST HRRR
ATTEMPTS TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS MIXING DIMINISHES...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS
SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW UNTIL LATE. SINCE NOT SEEING MUCH TRIGGER THIS
FAR SOUTH EARLY ON AND DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT...LEANING MORESO TOWARD
THE DRIER RAP SOLUTION WHICH ONLY CLIPS THE FAR NW OVERNIGHT. THUS
ONLY BOOSTING POPS SLIGHTLY TO HIGHER CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH LITTLE COVERAGE ELSW UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. ELSW
SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PC AS DEBRIS CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE AHEAD OF A
DECAYING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS WVA EARLY THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF
CHANGE TO WARM/MUGGY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW REMNANT STORMS ENTERED THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS FELL APART
MOVING TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. THE 06/12 18Z HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE
ON CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MOUNT AIRY NC. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD FADE WITH
LOSE OF HEATING.
THE FOCUS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT HAS GOOD DYNAMIC AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL
LIKELY BRING SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS FRONT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SOME METEOROLOGIST ARE
COMPARING THIS FRONT TO THE DERECHO OF JUNE 2012. THERE ARE SEVERAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THIS FRONT
WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING THEN JUMPING TO A LEE
TROUGH IN THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS LIKE TO FEED
OFF OF HEAT WHICH IS LACKING IN THE MORNING. THE FRONT MAY NOT JUMP
TO THE LEE TROUGH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SW VA
PIEDMONT...SOUTHSIDE VA...AND NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE GREAT POTENTIALLY FOR BLACKSBURG
CWA TO HAVE SEVERE WEATHER. LAST YEAR`S DERECHO MOVED INTO A VERY
WARM ENVIRONMENT OF 90F TO 105F LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ALSO WITH THIS FRONT...A WEST WIND WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLY FADE TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE MORNING. AS THE FRONT
JUMPS TO THE LEE TROUGH...A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY RUSH HOUR TOMORROW
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOING TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOLLOWS THE MAIN FRONT. THINK THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CONVECTION TO WORK IN DRIER AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES OUT BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN MOST OF THE REGION...LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF SE WV.
THERE IS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MTNS
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS OF SE WV/ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VA.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER FOR PERIOD OF 48 HOURS WHILE SFC HIGH
BUILDS OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER
80S EAST...FOLLOWED BY LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 50 WEST TO MID
50S EAST.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GRADIENT THU NIGH-FRIDAY FOR SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS...GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA.
SUNDAY...LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE SETTING OUR AREA
UP IN THE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY. SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY
OF TYPICAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES FROM GREAT
LAKES-CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR OVERALL BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ACTIVE PATTERN WHERE 2-3 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS.
FRONT APPEARS TO FINALLY INCH SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE SEEN A FEW STRONGER STORMS AROUND THE KDAN VICINITY EARLY
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE TROF AND LOW LEVEL BACKING
FLOW...OTRW VFR PREVAILS. MAY SEE ADDED ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POP UP
AFTER MIXING SUBSIDES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT NOT EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITE ATTM. MAIN
CONCERN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH
COMPLEXES OF NEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO THAT COULD SPILL SE
IN LINE FASHION GIVEN INSTABILITY EVEN AFTER LOSS OF HEATING.
PENDING SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY OF THESE BANDS...MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF MVFR ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD SPILL TO
KBCB/KROA.
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THEN LOOK
TO REORGANIZE ALONG OR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT
KDAN AND KLYH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN VFR
WEATHER. MAY SEE FOG AT THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING...
KLWB/KBCB...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW POSSIBLY BRINGING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A FEW REMNANT STORMS ENTERED THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS FELL APART
MOVING TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. THE 06/12 18Z HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE
ON CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MOUNT AIRY NC. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD FADE WITH
LOSE OF HEATING.
THE FOCUS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT HAS GOOD DYNAMIC AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL
LIKELY BRING SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS FRONT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SOME METEOROLOGIST ARE
COMPARING THIS FRONT TO THE DERECHO OF JUNE 2012. THERE ARE SEVERAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THIS FRONT
WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING THEN JUMPING TO A LEE
TROUGH IN THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS LIKE TO FEED
OFF OF HEAT WHICH IS LACKING IN THE MORNING. THE FRONT MAY NOT JUMP
TO THE LEE TROUGH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SW VA
PIEDMONT...SOUTHSIDE VA...AND NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE GREAT POTENTIALLY FOR BLACKSBURG
CWA TO HAVE SEVERE WEATHER. LAST YEAR`S DERECHO MOVED INTO A VERY
WARM ENVIRONMENT OF 90F TO 105F LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ALSO WITH THIS FRONT...A WEST WIND WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLY FADE TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE MORNING. AS THE FRONT
JUMPS TO THE LEE TROUGH...A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY RUSH HOUR TOMORROW
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOING TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOLLOWS THE MAIN FRONT. THINK THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CONVECTION TO WORK IN DRIER AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES OUT BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN MOST OF THE REGION...LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF SE WV.
THERE IS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MTNS
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS OF SE WV/ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VA.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER FOR PERIOD OF 48 HOURS WHILE SFC HIGH
BUILDS OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER
80S EAST...FOLLOWED BY LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 50 WEST TO MID
50S EAST.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GRADIENT THU NIGH-FRIDAY FOR SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS...GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA.
SUNDAY...LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE SETTING OUR AREA
UP IN THE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY. SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY
OF TYPICAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES FROM GREAT
LAKES-CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR OVERALL BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ACTIVE PATTERN WHERE 2-3 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS.
FRONT APPEARS TO FINALLY INCH SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE SEEN A FEW STRONGER STORMS AROUND THE KDAN VICINITY EARLY
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE TROF AND LOW LEVEL BACKING
FLOW...OTRW VFR PREVAILS. MAY SEE ADDED ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POP UP
AFTER MIXING SUBSIDES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT NOT EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITE ATTM. MAIN
CONCERN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH
COMPLEXES OF NEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO THAT COULD SPILL SE
IN LINE FASHION GIVEN INSTABILITY EVEN AFTER LOSS OF HEATING.
PENDING SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY OF THESE BANDS...MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF MVFR ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD SPILL TO
KBCB/KROA.
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THEN LOOK
TO REORGANIZE ALONG OR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT
KDAN AND KLYH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN VFR
WEATHER. MAY SEE FOG AT THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING...
KLWB/KBCB...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1030 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
AT 3 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW A
STRONG NEGATIVELY TITLED TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE RAP HAS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG PV ANOMALY EXTENDING
DOWN TO 500 MB. A 850 MB TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A 700 MB TROUGH
WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND NEAR LA CROSSE.
MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS.
BOTH THE RAP AND GFS SHOW THAT THE VERY STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS IT APPROACHES...WE EXPECT TO RAPID
ASCENT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE
LAPS IS SHOWING A LOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL IOWA. HOWEVER LOOKING AT
THE WIND FIELDS AND THE APPROACHING PV ANOMALY EXPECT THAT THE
ACTUAL LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO POTENTIALLY LIFT
A BIT FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. REGARDLESS OF THE SURFACE LOW...THE 0-6KM
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE 0-1 KM HELICITY
IS FAVORABLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAYETTE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO GENERATE QUITE A FEW SUPERCELLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN 12.19Z AND 13.02Z. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE LARGE
HAIL /DUE TO THE FAT CAPE/...DAMAGING WINDS /DCAPES OVER
1000 J/KG/...AND VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS /1.8 PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 4 KM/.
AS THE COLD POOLS EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LINE WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST AS A
DERECHO THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
INDIANA...OHIO...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS PV ANOMALY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER AND MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROUNDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING 1 TO
2K J/KG MU CAPE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
NOT SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THE 0-3 KM SHEAR DOES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS. WITH WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS ABOVE 4 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO
1.6 INCHES...THE STORMS WILL HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING RAIN...
THUS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. WITH THE 0-6KM SHEAR LESS
THAN 40 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TIMING AND POSITION SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION...THUS
JUST STAYED WITH THE ALL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF KRST/KLSE AND
HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THU. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
ABOVE 4 KM...THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
AT 3 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO BE FOUND FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ABOVE THE CAP DUE TO WEAK
TO MODERATE 700 TO 300 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK TO MODERATE
310 TO 320K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...WEAK TO MODERATE 700 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KNOT
250 MB JET.
THE 11.12Z MODELS THAT THE 700 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST `
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH OUR AREA FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE 700 MB VAD WIND AT KABR JUST
RECENTLY WENT FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS...
700 TO 300 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND 310 TO 320K ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
FRONTOGENETIC WING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND THEN SPREADS EAST INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATES OF 90 AND 94 BETWEEN 10 PM
AND 1 AM. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT A BREAK AND THEN
LOOKING FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX /LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR
RAPID CITY/ TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. A FEW OF THE MESO MODELS HAVE SHOWED THAT A LINE OF
STORMS WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 10 AM. 0-3 KM
SHEAR AND THE 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE MAY ARRIVE A BIT
LATER AND THAT THE LINE WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG WHEN IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. BY FAR...THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND BY THE TIME THAT IT ARRIVES THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY LEFT. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER THING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT IS THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THAT THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE INCREASING UP TO 1.8 INCHES AND
THAT THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 4 TO
4.5 KM RANGE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL ESPECIALLY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE FROM
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE EVEN A FEW SPOTS THAT
COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT QUICKLY MOVES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THIS IS BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...SO LOWERED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND TOOK THEM OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REALLY
STRUGGLE WITH BOTH THEIR LOCATION AND TIMING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL IS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...SO WENT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EVEN AS
ISOLATED/SCT -SHRA OR A -TSRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. FORCING FOR ANY
SHRA/TSRA THRU THIS EVENING GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FT WITH SCT DIURNAL
CUMULUS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE BELOW THAT. UPSTREAM...VSBYS WHERE ANY
SHRA OR SPRINKLES HAVE OCCURRED THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE 7-10SM
RANGE.
FCST BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THE LATE EVENING THRU WED MORNING
HOURS. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN SD
THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO THE FCST
AREA IN THE 10-12Z TIME-FRAME WED MORNING. PLENTY OF MODEL DETAIL/
TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS THIS POTENTIAL SHRA/TSRA COMPLEX
ROLLS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THE FCST
FOR LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FOLLOWED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
AND INTRODUCED A 3HR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH TSRA WHEN THE
COMPLEX WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT
THIS TO BE A MATURE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHEN IT WOULD ARRIVE WITH A
SQUALL LINE OF TSRA. ADDED TEMPO GUSTY WEST WINDS DURING THE MVFR
TSRA PERIOD. ONCE THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD PASS...CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED MORNING WOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH SOME
TRAILING/LINGERING SHRA IN THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...PLAN
ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM
0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH WET
SOILS IN PLACE...EXPECT SOME RUNOFF ISSUES AND SOME SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES TO OCCUR. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON ANY AREAS THAT MAY SEE LONGER DURATION/HIGHER RAINFALL RATES
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A
SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA RIDING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
THERE. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE WEAK RIDGING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AS SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS...WITH SATURATION NEARLY UP TO
800MB BUT PLENTY OF DRYING ABOVE THAT. THE RESULT WAS EXPANSIVE
STRATUS AND SOME FOG THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAS REALLY HELPED DISSIPATE THE STRATUS...THOUGH. AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA WITH RESPECT TO WARMTH EXHIBITS 850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C PER
12Z RAOBS...WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...850MB TEMPS ARE 22-26C OR 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. 700MB TEMPS ARE ALSO QUITE WARM...RANGING FROM 14-17C FROM
RAPID CITY AND AMARILLO WEST TO SALT LAKE CITY. TO OUR
NORTHWEST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GOING ALL DAY
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...PUSHED EAST BY THE
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTING AND SHEARING OUT INTO
WYOMING BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS ALL THE WARM AIR OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL SPILL EAST AND TRY TO HEAD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING SOME
BLOCKING TO THE WARM AIR. AS A RESULT...WHILE 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BY
00Z WEDNESDAY TO 14C NORTH TO 18C SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...READINGS OF 24-36C LOOK COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS...A MUCH WARMER DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.
IF WE CAN MIX UP TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPS...READINGS WOULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...TEMPERATURES SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE MID MAY.
WITH THE WARMER AIR COMING AT US...THERE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION. TONIGHT APPEARS DRY WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM 925MB TO 700MB ALL FOCUSED WEST OF THE AREA. IN
FACT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH THE CURRENT CLOUDS
DISSIPATING WITH DIURNAL COOLING GIVEN THEIR NOW CELLULAR NATURE.
ON TUESDAY...THAT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
PROGGED TO BYPASS US TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH ITS RELATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
SOME VERY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE 10.06Z/12Z NAM...10.06Z HIRES ARW AND 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN
ALL CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
APPEAR TO COME OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADDED 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER WITH
THE CHANCES BECAUSE OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB LIKELY ABSORBING SOME
OF THE RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL HAMPER TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TO
THEIR FULL MIXING VALUES MENTIONED EARLIER.
LASTLY...FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SKIES CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY...
LIGHT WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MOIST SOILS ARE ALL VERY
FAVORABLE FOR FOG. THIS LOOKS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN VALLEYS WHERE
EVAPOTRANSPORATION OF MOISTURE CAN POOL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND
IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
THE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
PERIOD...PRIMARILY RELATED TO ALL THE WARM AIR COMING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SYNOPTICALLY...THE MAIN FEATURE TO LOCK
ONTO IS THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...
WHICH MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AS THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THERE. USING THE 10.12Z MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS
PAST MODELS...A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS CAN PLAY OUT:
1. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND LIFTING TO THE SIOUX FALLS AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN VARIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING THIS WILL
HELP BREAK THE CAPPING PRESENT BETWEEN 650-700MB...RESULTING IN AN
MCS WHICH THEN CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD BRING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-15Z WEDNESDAY. THE MCS COULD BE A BOW
ECHO. THE 10.06Z/12Z HI RES ARW MODELS...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY GOOD
STORM SCALE MODEL FORECASTS...HINT AT THIS SCENARIO.
2. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FIRE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CAPPING.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THESE ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AS IN SCENARIO 1 WHICH
WOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN SUGGESTS
THIS SCENARIO.
3. NOTHING HAPPENS OR MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST TUESDAY NIGHT
LIKE THE 10.12Z ECMWF...AND WE HAVE 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO IOWA LATE IN THE
DAY MOVES IN.
SO FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD EVEN END
UP DRY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCES OF 60-70 GOING PER
SCENARIOS 1 AND 2...AND DID SHIFT THEM NORTH TO COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS. ALL 3 ABOVE SCENARIOS SUGGEST THE SECOND PART OF SCENARIO
3 IS TRUE...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALMOST LOOK LIKE FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF A
SURFACE LOW WHICH IS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...I.E. A MORE
WINTER/SPRING LIKE APPEARANCE. THUS...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTED THE CHANCES FARTHER NORTH TO COME
INTO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALSO ENDED UP COOLING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
COOLED FURTHER.
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST GETS EASIER. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
BUILD UP THROUGH THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
KICK THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AT 00Z THURSDAY
SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AND DRYING TO
OCCUR. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALSO SENDS 850MB TEMPS DOWNWARD TO 10-12C
BY 18Z THURSDAY...THUS EXPECT COOLER BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
10.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
THE DEEP PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS GOING TO EJECT OUT ON FRIDAY
WHILE NEW TROUGHING REFORMS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THAT
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...IT PUSHES AND
FLATTENS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TOWARDS US. HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRY...WITH ANY
CONVECTION GOING UP WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN IA
IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE. HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THAT WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS EAST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION INTO US. CONSENSUS CHANCES OF 60 WEST TO 20
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND 30-40 FOR SATURDAY SEEM REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS GROWING AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS OF AN MCS TO
FORM FRIDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN IOWA...WHICH THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. IF THIS INDEED HAPPENS...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER US
COULD BE GREATLY REDUCED AS THE MCS TRAPS ANY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TOWARDS US. BEYOND SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
HANDLING OF THAT EJECTING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
SUGGESTIONS OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPROACHING THE AREA
ON SUNDAY PER 10.12Z CANADIAN/GFS...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE 10.12Z ECMWF STILL HAS THAT
FRONT BACK IN THE DAKOTAS KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THESE TWO MODEL
GROUPS BECOME REVERSED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN AND THE CANADIAN/GFS HAVING IT SOUTH OF US.
THUS...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY FEATURE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK AROUND NORMAL
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP OR COOL DOWN BEING IN A MEAN NORTHWEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...RECENT RAIN AND RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY ON THE WISCONSIN SIDE OVERNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES BUT EXPECT A BULK OF
THE AREA TO BE VFR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF WESTERN U.S. ALREADY
PRODUCING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN OVER WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS AND WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NOT REACH US...
ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL DURING TUESDAY MORNING HOURS.
THIS BROAD FRONTOGENETIC REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE COULD
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING TO
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH WILL ADVECT INTO TAF SITES GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
405 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION TRYING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH/DRYLINE WHICH IS NOW
POSITIONED FROM EASTERN CONVERSE COUNTY IN WYOMING DOWN TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN CENTRAL KIMBALL COUNTY IN NEBRASKA. LAPS AND SPC MESO
ANALYSIS OF MLCAPE BOTH SHOW THE CAP ERODING JUST TO THE EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH A STRONGER CAP FURTHER EAST INTO NEBRASKA. 50+
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BEING ANALYZED OVER THIS AREA AS
WELL...WITH LLVL SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE. STILL EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE
IS IN PLACE WITH A SLOWLY WEAKENING CAP. RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODEL
RUNS AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE WITH LLVL SHEAR INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THIS MORNINGS UPDATE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE COUNTIES.
FURTHER WEST...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35 TO
50 MPH AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
PUSHES THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND
THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS EVENINGS
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PRODUCE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAINLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS
DIMINISH.
SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LATER AFTERNOON.
A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SFC WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH COOLER SFC TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MORE STABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. DECREASING WINDS
AND A CONTINUED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE PATCHY
FOG OVER THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT SHOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH AND UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST PIVOT EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. A RIDGE AXIS THEN REBUILDS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN SURFACE WEATHER FEATURE OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A MEANDERING
DRY LINE/TROUGH SEPARATING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST FROM MUCH
DRIER AIR TO THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DRIFTING EAST FROM THE
EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY AS A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING MUCH OF THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER A
FEW TSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS WEST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED TSTORMS. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE DRY LINE
DRIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL AVERAGE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO 95.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE PACIFIC FRONT. TEMPERATURES WARM SOMEWHAT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 KT ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM AFTER 21Z OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KLSK...KBFF...TO KAIA. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN RAIN...ALONG WITH ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND HAIL. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS LOOK TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT EAST OF A KLSK TO KSNY...WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. WINDS OVERALL WILL EASE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE OVER CARBON COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE DISTRICT
TODAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTCENTRAL PLAINS OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WINDS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND
SOME HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO BETWEEN 6 AND 14 PERCENT AND WINDS ARE
GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AND
HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AND SO MOSTLY DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT EXPECTED IN
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WINDY SIDE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. FURTHER
EAST...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL GUST 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
507 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2013
...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS...
.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]...
Very interesting forecast across the region over the next 24 hours,
as the very hot conditions which were observed across the CWA on
Wednesday will continue over the region today. High temps are once
again expected to reach the upper 90s across much of the interior
this afternoon, with lower to middle 90s as we gradually approach
the coast. However, the upper level ridging (and low level NW flow)
which helped to suppress and limit the afternoon Sea Breeze
convection to a general area confined near the coast, will be
retrograding westward today, which will allow a shortwave trof and
weak Cold Frontal boundary to approach from the NW tonight. While
PoPs from the Sea Breeze convection are only expected to be slightly
higher across the region this afternoon (ranging from 20% to the NW
to 40% to the SE), it is the potential MCS development out ahead of
the Cold Front which has us quite a bit more concerned for tonight.
In fact, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of our AL
and GA zones in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms, with the
main threat being damaging wind gusts. The main question for our
region will be the timing of this convection, which we currently
believe will be mainly in the 00 to 06 UTC window this evening over
our northern zones (with 40% PoPs which may need later adjustment),
with the earlier the arrival likely equating to greater potential
for severe storms. This potential will at least be somewhat tied
to evening temperatures, which could still be around 90 degrees, so
when combined with SFC dewpoints in the lower 70s, will still
support a very unstable environment for the convection to develop
and propagate southward. Therefore, all interests in our CWA should
keep abreast of the latest forecasts, briefing information, and
updates from both our local office and the Storm Prediction Center
should a Severe Thunderstorm Watch become necessary later today or
tonight. In any event, most of of the Hi-Res models are indicating a
definitive weakening trend in the convection during the overnight
hours, so the threat should be diminishing as the night goes on.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The short term period begins with an upper level pattern much like
the one our area has been under for the past couple of days. The
only difference being now an upper level trough is moving off the
eastern seaboard, and deep layer ridging is advancing eastward. A
weak surface cold front, associated with the upper level trough,
is expected to be just north of the Florida border by 12Z Friday.
Therefore, expect an enhanced PoP ahead of the cold front as it
slowly advances southward. The Storm Prediction Center has a 5%
probability of severe weather outlined for ahead of the surface
cold front. If severe weather should occur, it will likely be high
winds. Looking at the equivalent potential temperature difference
between the surface and the 500-700mb layer, values are in the
lower 30s, which would indicate a marginal potential for damaging
winds being transported to the surface. The mid-level temperatures
are too warm to support the possibility of severe hail making it
down the surface.
By early Saturday morning, the cold front should stall out south of
our CWA. Therefore expect drier conditions throughout the day on
Saturday with no POPs expected. PWATs throughout the area will be
less than 1.3, which is abnormally low for this time of year. The
surface high pressure will quickly push eastward through the day
on Saturday with winds transitioning from northerly to easterly.
By the end of the near term period winds will be southerly,
returning our area to our normal summertime weather pattern.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday through Wednesday]...
After the potential system passes Thursday night, high pressure
aloft and at the surface will build eastward and be the main
synoptic scale influence on the forecast area`s weather through
Tuesday. On Tuesday, another shortwave will propagate through the
upper level ridge and set up a pattern similar to Thursday night
(see short term). Highest PoPs in the forecast period are Tuesday
and Wednesday. Expecting highs in the 90s and lows in the low 70s
through the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 12 UTC Friday] Although generally VFR conditions are once
again expected to prevail for the majority of the overnight period,
there are once again enough discrepancies both within the Hi-Res
guidance (the HRRR and the NARRE), and between this and the
numerical guidance to make the fcst a bit tricky. It appears that
the HRRR is unusually a bit pessimistic (but does appear to have the
likely favored areas for possible restrictions), so used a blend
with persistence. Once again, believe DHN and ECP will need to be
monitored the most closely should IFR of LIFR Vis/Cigs develop
towards morning. During the afternoon and next evening hours, rain
chances will be greater across the area than the previous 2 days, as
showers and storms may form both along the Sea Breeze Front
initially, and on the southward moving Cold Frontal boundary
thereafter. Used convective Prob30 groups to account for this, with
the timing from south to north, and did include gusty winds as some
of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe.
&&
.MARINE...
With the approach of a surface cold front, the pressure gradient
will tighten allowing for increased winds. Beginning this
afternoon, small crafts should exercise caution with winds
expected to be 15-20 knots through early Friday morning. A chance
for thunderstorms is expected through the day on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag or near Red Flag conditions are not anticipated across the
Tri-State area for the next several days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The Ochlockonee River at Thomasville is in action stage and may
rise slightly with rain tomorrow night, but it is not expected to
reach minor flood stage. MMEFS shows no sites are forecast to
reach flood stage in the near future. Although there is potential
for some severe thunderstorms Thursday night, WPC QPF for our area
is 0.25" or less and is not expected to cause significant rises on
area rivers.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 96 75 94 71 93 / 30 20 30 10 10
Panama City 91 78 88 77 87 / 30 10 30 20 10
Dothan 99 74 94 70 95 / 20 40 20 0 10
Albany 99 74 93 70 93 / 20 40 10 0 10
Valdosta 97 74 95 70 95 / 40 30 30 10 10
Cross City 92 73 91 72 92 / 30 20 30 20 10
Apalachicola 89 77 87 76 86 / 20 10 30 20 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Gould
SHORT TERM...Navarro/Harrigan
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Gould
MARINE...Navarro/Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Gould
HYDROLOGY...Moore
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1145 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
HOT HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100F. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY OK FOR NOW AND WILL RUN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.
WVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS WAVE MOVING INTO SW MINNESOTA AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OFF TO OUR
NORTH FROM PORTIONS OF IOWA INTO ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND OHIO. THE
QUESTION FOR OUR AREA...IS HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP WITH THIS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION/MESOSCALE MODELS ARE VARIABLE. A COUPLE OF
4KM MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ALL THE WAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. WHILE VARIANTS OF THE HRRR STANDARD AND ENSEMBLE COMPOSITE
DATA SUGGEST A LIMITED CHANCE INTO THE KEVV TRI-STATE IF ANYTHING
AT ALL...AND NOTHING WEST AND SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING MID
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS/WEAKENING CAP...THINK IT PRUDENT WE
MAINTAIN POPS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY FOR NOW
WITH MID RANGE CHANCE POPS KEVV TRI-STATE...LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TOWARD THE I-55 CORRIDOR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED EITHER WAY
HOW THINGS PAN OUT. AND SHOULD CONVECTION TAKE SHAPE IN OUR
AREA...IT COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN...WE WILL RID THE SHORT LIVED HEAT EPISODE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD A VERY SHARP...BUT NARROW AMPLITUDE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PARKED JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MEAN MOISTURE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS IS ORIENTED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND
DIVING SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW...BUT ROBUST
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A SERIES OF MINOR
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE MUCH FASTER
WESTERLIES MAY GENERATE NON-DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES. THE BIG KEY WILL
BE THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...KEEPING MOST OF THE WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR POPS.
BY THE TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ROLLS AROUND THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE FLATTENS...SUPPORTING A MUCH MORE ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW AND
FORCING OVER THE AREA. THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS ALSO MORE
SOUTHERLY AND TARGETED TOWARD THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS
IN MIND...RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED FROM HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY BY
EARLY MONDAY...FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
MORE DOMINANT RIDGING TAKES PLACE LATE MONDAY...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...UNTIL RIDGING
ALOFT CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE BY MID-WEEK...ANTECEDENT SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/STATIONARY FRONTS SHOULD SUPPORT A SMALL DIURNAL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS STRESSFUL AS WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING TODAY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
WINDS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO BELOW 10
KTS. THE WIND IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION...AND A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THU...YIELDING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. ATTM...NO PCPN OR VSBY
RESTRICTION IS IN THE KEVV/KOWB TAFS DUE TO THE LIMITED CHANCE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN THIRD OF THE
REGION FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
446 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
LOTS OF STRONG TSRA AND LIGHTNING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW/WARM FRONT CROSSING THAT AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...WV LOOP
INDICATES NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGHING CLOSE BY OVER ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. MAIN WAVE WITHIN THAT TROUGH IS SLIDING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY
BUT ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS JUST TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
AS OF 05Z. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO QUEBEC EXPECT THE SFC-H85
TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS UPR LAKES THIS MORNING. SFC TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
IN WAKE OF TROUGH IN ONTARIO NOT TOO DIFFERENT THAN CURRENT READINGS
OVER UPR MICHIGAN. COOLING AT 925-850MB IS SEEN THOUGH WITH H85
TEMPS DOWN TO +8C AT CWPL WHILE READINGS AT MPX/GRB AND APX WERE
AROUND +13C. SIMILAR COOLING AT 925MB WITH +20C AT APX FALLING OFF
TO +10C AT CWPL AND +13C AT CWZC /MOOSONEE ONTARIO AT SOUTH SHORE OF
JAMES BAY/. AT 00Z...ONLY UPSTREAM SOUNDING THAT SHOWED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS CWZC AND NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE OBS
IN ONTARIO ARE SHOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS THUS FAR...THOUGH
07Z IMAGERY INDICATES LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STARTING TO FORM OVR HURON
MOUNTAINS. MODELS COMPARED WELL TO EACH OTHER INITIALIZING SFC
THROUGH H5 FEATURES UPSTREAM. NAM INITIALIZED SOUNDINGS AT CWPL AND
CWZC WELL. WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND RUC13 FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECASTS FOR TODAY OVR CWA.
FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT...ENCOURAGED TO SEE LOWER CLOUDS
STARTING TO FORM. THINK IDEA OF BKN LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING STILL
ON TRACK...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. HAVE
STRUGGLED ON WHAT TO DO WITH DRIZZLE CHANCES. WAS GOING TO PULL
MENTION BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED LINGERING DRYING BENEATH
HIGHER MOISTURE 950-900MB. ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY AS T/TD DEPRESSION AT STDM4
HAS STEADILY NARROWED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THINK THIS MOISTENING
COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW COULD STILL RESULT IN LGT DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES. DRIZZLE WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING. ONCE CLOUDS
SET UP...THINK THEY MAY STUBBORN TO LEAVE AS THERMAL TROUGHING FM
925-850MB PERSISTS ALONG WITH A CYCLONIC CONVERGENT NNE FLOW
925-850MB. KEPT BKN CLOUDS IN THROUGH EARLY AFTN WITH SCT CLOUDS
CLOUDS STAYING AROUND THROUGH MID AFTN IN THOSE UPSLOPE AREAS.
EVEN AWAY FM FAVORED AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...THERMAL TROUGHING AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ACT TO INCREASE CU FOR A WHILE BEFORE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATE TODAY. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING OF SKIES
LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHARP 925-850MB DRYING WITH
DWPNT DEPRESSIONS OVER 15C SURGES INTO THE REGION FROM ONTARIO.
ONE ITEM TO NOTE ABOUT TODAY. A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS IN PLACE FOR
SHORELINES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES AS WAVES BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET. LOWERING WAVES WILL LESSEN THE SWIM RISK BY THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...A COOL NIGHT IN STORE DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA DROPS
ACROSS REGION. WINDS FCST TO BECOME CALM OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPR 30S...MAYBE EVEN MID
30S. CURRENT READINGS BENEATH THE HIGH IN MANITOBA HAVE ALREADY INTO
UPR 30S AS OF 07Z. KEPT THE FROST MENTION FOR INTERIOR WEST...BUT IT
REMAINS TOO ISOLD TO MENTION IN THE HWO OR SFP.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
FRI...HI PRES IS FCST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP ON
FRI AFTN TO THE E OF UPR RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SCENTRAL CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF
CLOSED LO OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES JUST N OF THE BORDER. ALTHOUGH
SOME HI CLDS IN THE DVLPG SLY FLOW/WAD PATTERN BTWN THE HI AND LOWER
PRES TO THE W MAY DRIFT INTO THE WRN COUNTIES IN THE AFTN...THE DAY
SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH LLVL DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 11-12C RANGE AND MIXING TO H8 ON FCST
SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. THE DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WL
CAUSE SFC DEWPTS TO FALL INTO THE 20S IN THE AFTN OVER THE
INTERIOR...WITH MIN RH AS LO AS 20 PCT OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE CORE
OF DRIEST AIR. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
FOCUS FOR FRI NGT THRU THE WEEKEND WL THEN SHIFT TO PCPN CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES RETREATING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND CLOSED LO THAT DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY E ACRS SRN
CANADA AND TOWARD THE UPR LKS BY LATE SUN. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME DEEP LYR ISENTROPIC ASCENT DVLPG ON FRI NGT
WITH BAND OF HIER MID LVL RH MOVING IN FM THE W. BUT GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ANTECENT AIRMASS...TENDENCY FOR MOST IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNGVC TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NW CLOSER TO THE LO ALLOWING
A MORE PERSISTENT UPR RDG AXIS OVER THE UPR LKS...AND PRESENCE OF
WARM FNT IN IOWA/ILLINOIS THAT WL INTERCEPT THE BULK OF RETURNING
LLVL MSTR...TRIMMED BACK THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE FRI NGT POPS SHOWN
IN PREVIOUS FCST TO MORE ALIGN WITH 00Z NAM/GFS/CNDN FCSTS. MIN
TEMPS ON FRI NGT SHOULD BE COOLEST OVER THE E CLOSER TO RETREATING
HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR.
SAT/SAT NGT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...SGNFT MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION
OF BAND OF HIER MID LVL RH ALIGNED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
AHEAD OF SHRTWV MOVING E THRU SW ONTARIO WELL IN ADVANCE OF SLOWER
CLOSED LO IN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS BAND OF HIER RH IS FCST TO DRIFT E
ACRS UPR MI FOLLOWED BY MID LVL DRYING IN THE JET SURGE REGION ON
THE SRN FLANK OF THE SHRTWV MOVING THRU SW ONTARIO. THE 00Z GFS IS
THEN MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DVLPG MORE SHRA/TS OVER THE W IN THE AFTN
WITH SHRTWV INTERACTING WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY ALLOWED BY CLRG
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MSTR AXIS. THE GFS THEN MOVES THESE
SHRA/TS E ACRS THE CWA ON SAT NGT. THE 00Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL JET SURGE DRYING...WITH FCST SDNGS
SHOWING EFFECTIVE MID LVL CAPPING AND ALMOST NO PCPN. PREFER THE
COMPROMISE 00Z CNDN MODEL HANDLING OF THE POPS GIVEN BETTER
PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES RELATIVE TO CLOSED LO LINGERING BACK W OF
LK WINNIPEG THRU 12Z SUN...WITH LESS AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING THAN
THE NAM AND LESS DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR INSTABILITY SHRA/TS OVER THE W
THAN SHOWN BY THE GFS LATE SAT AFTN/NGT. BUT PASSAGE OF THIS WEAKER
SHRTWV STILL WARRANTS CHC POPS ON SAT NGT AS INDICATED BY THE CNDN
MODEL.
SUN...THERE IS A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHRTWV RDG BTWN DEPARTING
WEAK SHRTWV TO THE E AND SLOWLY APRCHG CLOSED LO FCST TO OPEN AND
APRCH NW MN LATE IN THE DAY WL BE AN INFLUENCE ON UPR MI WX. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WX OVER THE CWA ON SUN. SO LOWERED MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS A BIT TO REFLECT THE MID LVL DRYING FCST/LACK OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WHICH IS FCST TO ARRIVE ONLY LATER IN THE DAY OVER
THE W CLOSER TO APRCHG SHRTWV.
SUN NGT/MON... BEST CHC FOR SHRA/SOME TS LOOKS TO BE ON SUN NGT INTO
MON WHEN DPVA/FAIRLY VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/HGT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV FM THE WNW IMPACT THE CWA. MODEL
CONSENSUS HI CHC POPS APPEAR ON THE RIGHT TRACK.
EXTENDED...A DRIER NW FLOW ALF IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV
SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WX TO THE UPR LKS ON TUE AND WED. ONLY
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE A STRONGER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW...WHICH COMMONLY BRING SOME SHRA/TS TO THE AREA IN THE
SUMMER IF THERE IS ENUF MSTR/INSTABILITY. BUT NOTHING HIER THAN SCHC
POPS ARE WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT KSAW WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO UPPER BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
N WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS TODAY...HIGHEST OVER THE E PART OF THE
LAKE...UNDER A SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
BUILDING HI PRES IN ONTARIO WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HI MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THEN A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY WILL CAUSE WINDS UNDER 15
KTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1255 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS... SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL FLOODING. SOME CLEARING
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TO
MID EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96.
WE EXPECT A LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-80 INTO THE EVENING
THAT WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTH
INTO I-94 INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
DEVELOP THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A TROWAL ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT THAT WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL. WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
DEVELOP WEST OF CHICAGO BY 6 PM THEN TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE MICHIGAN INDIANA BORDER DURING THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR... RAP AND SPC
WRF. THIS RAINFALL IS INDEPENDENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS
EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING
SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO CREATE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BEYOND THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN AND BRING FAIR WX FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE RATHER CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL DELAY END OF
PRECIPITATION TO AROUND 09-10Z. CEILINGS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT
STICKING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FUEL ALTERNATE THRESHOLDS. SOME
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING IFR CEILINGS AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF OUR TERMINALS WILL BRIEFLY SEE BRIEF CEILINGS BELOW
1000 FT.
WINDS THROUGH 08Z WILL BE RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN WITH EXITING
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THAT...EXPECT DIRECTION TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY AFTER 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
WE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
DUE TO 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WE ADDED FOG TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BASED ON WEB CAMS AND
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE MID 50S LAKE
TEMPERATURES. ONCE WIND SHIFTS MID EVENING TO THE NORTH AND
BRINGS DRIER AIR IN THE FOG DISPERSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013
AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE KALAMAZOO
AND SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASINS TONIGHT WITH MOST OF IT FALLING BY
06Z. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME QUICK RISES ON STREAMS WITH THE MAIN RIVER
BRANCHES SEEING RISES IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LOWERED QPF AFTER
06Z TONIGHT PER SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH
RFC.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056>059-
064>067-071>074.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MIZ043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...INCLUDING SEASONALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE PAC NW LEADING TO DECENT JET AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BASED ON EVENING UA ANALYSIS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS YIELDING ERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS AND NORTH OF THIS
FRONT SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS INDICATED DECREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ALOFT. COOLING CLOUD TOPS
INDICATED IN IR SAT PICS IN NERN CO AND NRN KS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...THROUGH NOON TODAY...ISOLD SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST INITIALLY TO COVER ECHOES ON RADAR GENERATED
BY A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY SEEN EARLIER ON THE KFTG 88D. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND RAP SHORT
TERM FCSTS SHOW MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS A RESULT OF THE WAA AS MENTIONED. THEREFORE WILL
INCLUDE ISOLD SHRA MENTION IN SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...THOUGH THIS
WILL BE A LOW QPF /IF ANY AT ALL/ EVENT. MAY BE A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT LATEST INFO SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING CURRENTLY.
IN RESPONSE TO THE JET COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SFC
PRESSURES WILL LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THRU THE DAY
TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NEXT 24 HRS. SEVERAL SMALL PV
ANOMALIES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE QUICK FLOW AND WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD YIELD A FAVORABLE PATTERN OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT AS AN EML ADVECTS EASTWARD ATOP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LACKING IN THIS PATTERN WHICH WOULD MEAN THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST...AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUPPORTED BY THE FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODELS HAVE THIS
IDEA HANDLED FAIRLY WELL...HOWEVER AS EXPECTED FINE SCALE DETAIL
REMAIN A CHALLENGE. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
EVEN SMOKE FROM FIRES IN COLORADO COULD MAKE TEMP FCSTS A TRICK
TODAY BUT WILL BE COOLER IN THE SOUTHWEST THAN YDAY WARMER IN THE
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEB AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. STALLED SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM LOW OVER NW KS NORTHWARD TO A LOW OVER THE PLAINS OF CANADA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HIGHS...AS SEVERAL THINGS TO CONSIDER. WARM TEMPS
ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...MORE SUN AND WARM...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE WEST. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE TO THE
SOUTH...SEEING MORE INFLUENCE FOR THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE
RIDGE AND RECENT WARMER PERFORMANCE. MORE OF A MODEL BLEND ACROSS
THE NORTH. AS FOR THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...GOOD INSTABILITY
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME STRONG CAP. ISOLD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...THEN SHOULD PUSH NE DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAP MAY KEEP CELLS MORE
DISCRETE...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING MORE OF A COMPLEX AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION TO
PUSH SOUTH WITH IT. HOWEVER ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND
THE RIDGE...ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ALSO SEEING A
COUPLE OF WAVES RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ELEVATED
CONVECTION. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
UP IN THE LOWER 60S...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 50S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE RETROGRADES AND BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
WEST...PUSHING TO THE EAST...EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TEMPS STILL IN
THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WARMING AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD FOR MID WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S TO MID
90S...POSSIBLY WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS
NEBRASKA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. WILL HANDLE THE
TSRA MENTION WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL FROM 00Z
TO 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AND NEAR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE AT/NEAR KABQ...KSAF AND KLVS THURSDAY
EVENING...AS ARE WET RUNWAYS. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SURFACE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 28KTS.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...933 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013...
INCREASED POPS FOR LATE EVENING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
PECOS CANYON AREA FROM GLORIETA TO COWLES EWD GIVEN THE SCT
CONVECTION SPROUTING UP RAPIDLY OVER AND NEAR THE TRES LAGUNAS
FIRE. ALSO INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SANDIA AND MANZANO MTNS ZONE WEST INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
TORRANCE COUNTY CONTINUES TO SHOW SINGS OF PRODUCING A STORM OR
TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DEWPOINTS RISE RAPIDLY AND
WINDS BECOME E-SE.
33
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. TEMPS ARE NOT AS QUICK TO RISE
TODAY THANKS TO A LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AND
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE BUBBLING OF CU EXTENDING FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS SOUTHWARD TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE THE
FAVORED AREA FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS...VIRGA AND/OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE HRRR AND THE NAM WERE SHOWING A BIT OF QPF
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY
BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP ONTO THE RATON RIDGE. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...IF NOT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. RECORD
HEAT FOR THURSDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO WILL
RESULT IN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG INVERTED-V SIGNATURES UP TO ROUGHLY 500 MB
SUGGESTING CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FURTHER EAST...A POCKET
OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTH WILL
LIMIT SHOWER AND T-STORM POTENTIAL...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...SOME CHANCE WILL EXIST IN THE
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT.
THOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OVER SE NM AND WEST TEXAS...SELY
FLOW WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE BACK TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND PERHAPS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN THE ADDED MOISTURE..PERHAPS A SLIGHT COOLING AT
MID LEVELS...AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AT MID LEVELS BETWEEN THE
SELY FLOW ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THE LOW...AND WSW FLOW AT
MID LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE NW
TROUGH...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST...WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. HOWEVER...A
CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...ON THE
FRINGES OF THE BETTER MOISTURE. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS...WITH THE
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
MOISTURE WILL RECYCLE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS WEST TEXAS. THEN MORE
WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ON SUNDAY...AND
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN PLUMMETS. TEMPS WILL ALSO JUMP BACK UP A FEW
DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IT MAY OR MAY NOT BRING TO THE
EAST. AFTER WHICH...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER TEXAS.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD INITIALLY BEFORE FOLLOWING A MORE NELY TRAJECTORY BY
WEEK/S END. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
END TO OUR RECORD-SETTING HEAT AS WELL AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR MANY AREAS TOMORROW BUT A TREND TOWARD WETTER STORMS
IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
THERE WILL STILL BE A PRONOUNCED WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT THE SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
PRIMARY HIGH CENTER WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT THAT COMBINED
WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
MID-LEVELS DOWN WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH A
TREND TOWARD ISOLATED MIXED WET/DRY STORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE OTHER CONCERN ON THURSDAY
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE HERE BUT WITH A
SLIGHTLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HAVE TRENDED DRIER THAN THE GFS BUT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NAM THAT IS BY FAR THE DRIEST. THE END RESULT
COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 103-- ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. LEFT THIS AREA OUT OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING GIVEN LIMITED IMPACT.
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL NOT BE NEAR AS BRUTAL AS THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS BUT STILL FAIR TO POOR FOR WESTERN AREAS AND THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH. MIN RH VALUES ON THURSDAY WILL BE TRENDING
UPWARD WITH SINGLE DIGIT READINGS CONFINED TO LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST
OF THE DIVIDE.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE PASSING OVER OR VERY
NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT....THOUGH MODELS DIFFER
WHEN IT MAKES ITS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. TRENDED DEW POINTS UPWARD
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS AND COULD SEE DECENT WETTING
RAIN POTENTIAL AT NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EC/SE PLAINS NEARER
THE LOW/S CORE. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE AMONG THE
MORE ACTIVE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES WITH DRIER AIR BECOMING PREDOMINATE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ALONG WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST.
KJ
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU. MODERATE
SFC WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20-25 KTS BUT SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE SMOKE IMPACTS
TO KSAF LATER TONIGHT WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH TRANSPORT WINDS GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
-SHRA AND -TSRA ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20Z AND 04Z.
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
220 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE ISOLATED LATE-AFTERNOON STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE TRIAD
FORMED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH INSTABILITY BUT MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH A STABLE POCKET ALOFT AROUND 700 MB WHICH LIMITED
EXTENT. THESE HAVE LEFT BEHIND A BATCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
SHOULD DRIFT SE OUT OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN
THE "CALM BEFORE THE STORM" TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A
CONCERN FOR WEAK LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS
A WAVY NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER NE IA
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND AND THE SRN BORDER OF MI THROUGH PA TO
DELAWARE... WITH WEAK TROUGHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NC. WIDESPREAD
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS -- PROMPTED IN PART BY A POTENT VORTICITY
MAX DROPPING INTO IA -- TRACKED ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THIS
FRONT... AND IT IS THE CONVECTION NOW OVER OH THAT IS OF CONCERN TO
US OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-ARW TAKES THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD AS A MCS
THROUGH DC AND NJ... AND THE HRRR IS SIMILAR BUT ACTUALLY BRUSHES
ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NC LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE
PERSISTENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG)... THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE AMBITIOUS GIVEN THE ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND QUICKLY DEVELOPING CINH... BUT A MORE PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO (INDICATED BY PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS) IS A MORE
NORTHWARD-TRACKING MCS AND THE DEPOSITION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NC LATE TONIGHT... WHICH WOULD HAVE
RAMIFICATIONS TOMORROW IN TERMS OF ENHANCEMENT OF OR FOCUS FOR
STORMS. THE OH STORMS HAVE BEEN LARGELY DISCRETE WITH FEW SIGNS OF
IMMINENT CONGEALMENT INTO A SQUALL LINE... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
THE STORMS FURTHER UPSTREAM AS WELL OVER IL/IN (AS NOTED BY SPC IN
ITS LATEST OUTLOOK)... WHICH LOWERS THE CHANCE THAN NC WILL BE
AFFECTED BY A CONVECTIVE LINE OVERNIGHT. THUS... WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
OVERNIGHT... BUT HOLD AT 14 PERCENT IN THE NORTH. BUT WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR OVERNIGHT FOR ANY DISCRETE ISOLATED
CELLS THAT CAN POP UP THROUGH THE CAP. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW
WELL UP INTO THE 70S... EXPECT LOWS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED... 70-75. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AS THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY TO NEARLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 DEG C/KM. EXPECT A STOUT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL
WIND MAX OF 50+ KTS ROTATING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...INITIATED IN PART BY THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH BUT
LIMITED IN COVERAGE FROM A NOTABLE DOWNSLOPE DRYING FLOW OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY GROW IN
COVERAGE AS IT APPROACHES THE US 1 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. AS THE CONVECTION
REACHES A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND BOWING FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 9 WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOWER 90S NORTHWEST TO
MID 90S SOUTHEAST. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND OR
JUST EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. WILL ACCORDINGLY MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY FRIDAY MORNING. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM THURSDAY...
A DRY WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON-TUE NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT
WEEK. NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT-SUN TO BRING A MILD
TO WARM AND DRY WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR MID JUNE
WITH READINGS IN THE 55-60 RANGE NORTH... AND 60-65 SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING... MODIFYING TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SAT-SUN...
THESE LOWS WILL BE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID 80S
SUNDAY.
MON-WED... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AGAIN THIS PERIOD. THE
MAIN STORM TRACK IS AGAIN FORECAST WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO BE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SE TO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WOULD PLACE AREAS TO OUR NORTH AT THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER... THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION. THE
CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SSW FLOW INCREASES THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC. HOWEVER... THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH DURING OR AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE ON WED AS THE FRONT APPEARS TO SLOW DOWN AND
POSSIBLY STALL NEAR SE NC ON WED. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE 85-90 AFTER
LOWS OF 65-70. LOWS TUESDAY 70-74 WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER STILL... WITH LOWS 65-70.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 12-17 KT
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 23-28 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (18-22Z) ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THEY TRACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SURFACE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50-60 KT AND QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE GREATEST AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND 03Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/NNW AT
10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 03-06Z FRIDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
212 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE ISOLATED LATE-AFTERNOON STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE TRIAD
FORMED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH INSTABILITY BUT MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH A STABLE POCKET ALOFT AROUND 700 MB WHICH LIMITED
EXTENT. THESE HAVE LEFT BEHIND A BATCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
SHOULD DRIFT SE OUT OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN
THE "CALM BEFORE THE STORM" TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A
CONCERN FOR WEAK LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS
A WAVY NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER NE IA
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND AND THE SRN BORDER OF MI THROUGH PA TO
DELAWARE... WITH WEAK TROUGHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NC. WIDESPREAD
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS -- PROMPTED IN PART BY A POTENT VORTICITY
MAX DROPPING INTO IA -- TRACKED ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THIS
FRONT... AND IT IS THE CONVECTION NOW OVER OH THAT IS OF CONCERN TO
US OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-ARW TAKES THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD AS A MCS
THROUGH DC AND NJ... AND THE HRRR IS SIMILAR BUT ACTUALLY BRUSHES
ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NC LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE
PERSISTENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG)... THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE AMBITIOUS GIVEN THE ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND QUICKLY DEVELOPING CINH... BUT A MORE PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO (INDICATED BY PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS) IS A MORE
NORTHWARD-TRACKING MCS AND THE DEPOSITION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NC LATE TONIGHT... WHICH WOULD HAVE
RAMIFICATIONS TOMORROW IN TERMS OF ENHANCEMENT OF OR FOCUS FOR
STORMS. THE OH STORMS HAVE BEEN LARGELY DISCRETE WITH FEW SIGNS OF
IMMINENT CONGEALMENT INTO A SQUALL LINE... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
THE STORMS FURTHER UPSTREAM AS WELL OVER IL/IN (AS NOTED BY SPC IN
ITS LATEST OUTLOOK)... WHICH LOWERS THE CHANCE THAN NC WILL BE
AFFECTED BY A CONVECTIVE LINE OVERNIGHT. THUS... WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
OVERNIGHT... BUT HOLD AT 14 PERCENT IN THE NORTH. BUT WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR OVERNIGHT FOR ANY DISCRETE ISOLATED
CELLS THAT CAN POP UP THROUGH THE CAP. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW
WELL UP INTO THE 70S... EXPECT LOWS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED... 70-75. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AS THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY TO NEARLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 DEG C/KM. EXPECT A STOUT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL
WIND MAX OF 50+ KTS ROTATING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...INITIATED IN PART BY THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH BUT
LIMITED IN COVERAGE FROM A NOTABLE DOWNSLOPE DRYING FLOW OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY GROW IN
COVERAGE AS IT APPROACHES THE US 1 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. AS THE CONVECTION
REACHES A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND BOWING FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 9 WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO LOWER 90S NORTHWEST TO
MID 90S SOUTHEAST. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND OR
JUST EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. WILL ACCORDINGLY MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY FRIDAY MORNING. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. THE STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
VERY WELL COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME SPRINKLES.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO PUT ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...IT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES NEAR AN
INCH) MAY RESIDE.
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALTHOUGH THE
CORE OF THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF OF THE REGION BEFORE
FLATTENING OUT BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND) WILL LEAD TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S...OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW 60S...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BETWEEN THE
MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME ON TUESDAY...WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
FOCUSED. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE OUR
MOISTURE BACK UP AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING ON NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 12-17 KT
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 23-28 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (18-22Z) ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THEY TRACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SURFACE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50-60 KT AND QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE GREATEST AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND 03Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/NNW AT
10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 03-06Z FRIDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
101 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE MAIN HIGH
CENTER IN THE HUDSON BAY REGION ACROSS MANITOBA AND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE AXIS IN NORTH DAKOTA WAS CENTERED AROUND THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. WINDS EAST OF
THE AXIS WERE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WHILE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE OCCURRING WEST OF THE AXIS - ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST OFF THE SURFACE TAKING PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD MENTION OF FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
DECIDED TO EXPAND THIS MENTION WESTWARD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH AXIS CENTER.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH CURRENT TRENDS
SHOWING CONVECTION IN FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE SOUTHWEST WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION IF IT GOT
GOING...BUT CAPE IS VIRTUALLY ZERO AND NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
STRONG STORMS AT ALL TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE PROGRESS EAST THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE BEING WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY AS THEY MIGRATE CLOSER TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A RIDGE AT H5. THE 13.00Z NAM GENERALLY
CAPTURES THIS TREND BY KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE ARE STILL HINTS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE THEM GETTING
PULLED WITH LATER UPDATES IF RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
CONVECTION DIMINISHING AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ENDED...WITH DRY CONDITIONS NOW IN
PLACE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEY HAVE BEEN MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS EAST
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST JUST IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAKES IT THAT FAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
THERE SHOULD BE NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD AS NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION OVER MONTANA COULD NOSE ITS WAY INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING SO ONLY
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CREST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS...NEAR SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA
SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAY SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING AS WELL. THEREFORE...ONLY INDICATED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. 850 MB CAPE VALUES OF
800-1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL THREAT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 12 C OR GREATER DO ADVECT NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH MAY BE A LIMIT TO HAIL GROWTH POTENTIAL.
ON FRIDAY...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NOW FILLING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE PRIMARY
LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH THE 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/GEM CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 83...WITH THE 12 UTC NAM AND 15
UTC SREF ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
FRONTAL POSITIONING COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTY IF SKIES WILL CLEAR
TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO
BE AVAILABLE. THEREAFTER...A DRY BUT WINDY SATURDAY IS FORECAST IN
THE DRY SLOT OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH A
BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS...GENERALLY 12000 FEET OR
ABOVE...CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THESE MID
CLOUDS TO DECREASE BY DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO MOST AERODROMES
TONIGHT...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG AT KBIS AND KJMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
512 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. STILL THINKING THAT SOME OF
THE SHOWERS OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL SWING INTO PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO THIS AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
NOT BE REAL HIGH. THIS WILL BE WATCHED.
KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH GOING BECAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE STILL
RISING...PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY.
ON THE EDGE ABOUT THIS MORNING WHETHER SOME OF THE SHOWERS FROM
MICHIGAN WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION...THE GFS AND HRRR KIND OF
HINTS AT THAT. WILL MONITOR THAT AND LOWER THE POPS AS NEEDED. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER IS JUST ABOUT GONE. THE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO
DECREASE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OH AND NW PA...ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER MOVES IN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD SNEAK INTO
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE THREAT
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ENDED THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD WORK.
USED MAINLY HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS BEING REPORTED WITH THIS
LINE...WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH TIME. SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
OF MVFR RAIN FOLLOWS. IFR IN TS. AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT QUESTION
WILL BE IF WE GET ANY IFR AROUND DAWN. CONDITIONS NOT TOO LOW
UPSTREAM...SO WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS...BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE...WILL MONITOR. WINDS FAIRLY VARIABLE TONIGHT. INITIALLY
WEST FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE LINE...THEN VARIABLE. FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTH FLOW...GUSTS TO 25KTS OR SO. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE WESTERN BAISN OF THE LAKE
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE TODAY.
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS FOR A TIME TODAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE GIVING SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ON THAT. STILL WENT AHEAD WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WOULD THINK THAT WE COULD EASILY
AVERAGE 4 FOOTERS. LATER TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING
IN WELL ENOUGH AND WINDS/WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING. RIP CURRENT RISK
ELEVATES INTO THE HIGH CATEGORY FOR A TIME TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD. ELSEWHERE IT STICKS IN MODERATE CATEGORY.
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...SHIFTING EAST
SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
WESTERN LAKES MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-
020>023-031>033-038-089.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-
027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
442 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NW PA
BY 5 AM.
KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH GOING BECAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE STILL
RISING...PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY.
ON THE EDGE ABOUT THIS MORNING WHETHER SOME OF THE SHOWERS FROM
MICHIGAN WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION...THE GFS AND HRRR KIND OF
HINTS AT THAT. WILL MONITOR THAT AND LOWER THE POPS AS NEEDED. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER IS JUST ABOUT GONE. THE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO
DECREASE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OH AND NW PA...ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER MOVES IN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD SNEAK INTO
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE THREAT
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ENDED THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD WORK.
USED MAINLY HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS BEING REPORTED WITH THIS
LINE...WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH TIME. SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
OF MVFR RAIN FOLLOWS. IFR IN TS. AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT QUESTION
WILL BE IF WE GET ANY IFR AROUND DAWN. CONDITIONS NOT TOO LOW
UPSTREAM...SO WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS...BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE...WILL MONITOR. WINDS FAIRLY VARIABLE TONIGHT. INITIALLY
WEST FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE LINE...THEN VARIABLE. FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTH FLOW...GUSTS TO 25KTS OR SO. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE WESTERN BAISN OF THE LAKE
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE TODAY.
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS FOR A TIME TODAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE GIVING SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ON THAT. STILL WENT AHEAD WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WOULD THINK THAT WE COULD EASILY
AVERAGE 4 FOOTERS. LATER TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING
IN WELL ENOUGH AND WINDS/WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING. RIP CURRENT RISK
ELEVATES INTO THE HIGH CATEGORY FOR A TIME TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD. ELSEWHERE IT STICKS IN MODERATE CATEGORY.
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...SHIFTING EAST
SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
WESTERN LAKES MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-020>023-
031>033-038-089.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-
027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
423 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NW PA
BY 5 AM.
KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH GOING BECAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE STILL
RISING...PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY.
ON THE EDGE ABOUT THIS MORNING WHETHER SOME OF THE SHOWERS FROM
MICHIGAN WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION...THE GFS AND HRRR KIND OF
HINTS AT THAT. WILL MONITOR THAT AND LOWER THE POPS AS NEEDED. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER IS JUST ABOUT GONE. THE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO
DECREASE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OH AND NW PA...ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER MOVES IN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD SNEAK INTO
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE THREAT
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ENDED THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD WORK.
USED MAINLY HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS BEING REPORTED WITH THIS
LINE...WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH TIME. SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
OF MVFR RAIN FOLLOWS. IFR IN TS. AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT QUESTION
WILL BE IF WE GET ANY IFR AROUND DAWN. CONDITIONS NOT TOO LOW
UPSTREAM...SO WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS...BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE...WILL MONITOR. WINDS FAIRLY VARIABLE TONIGHT. INITIALLY
WEST FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE LINE...THEN VARIABLE. FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTH FLOW...GUSTS TO 25KTS OR SO. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
VARYING FROM A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. LATER TONIGHT...A
LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WARRANTING A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH HOW
STRONG WINDS WILL GET...WHICH WILL AFFECT WAVE HEIGHTS. FOR NOW IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT
THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP SPEED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-020>023-
031>033-038-089.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-
027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
205 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED FOR WATCH. THE MAIN THREAT IS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO...HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY BE SEVERE
OR TORNADIC.
PREVIOUS...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE WATCH. CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING IN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE THIS EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LINE...IT TOO COULD BECOME
SEVERE. THIS IS A PDS WATCH WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KTS. THERMODYNAMICS
BACKS THIS UP WITH DRY AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNDRAFT CAPES
OVER 1000K/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST FORWARD PROPAGATION
ADDING TO WIND POTENTIAL. ROTATING SUPERCELLS ALSO SUPPORTED SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS...THE WAITING GAME BEGINS. SO FAR ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE WELL CAPPED AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM. THE OTHER ISSUE AT HAND IS THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND. WE NEVER CLEARED OUT OR HAD ANY BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST AS EXPECTED AND THIS IS ALSO LIMITING ANY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE REGION.
COORDINATED WITH COFORECASTER...IT APPEARS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
HAS SET UP BACK OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME AND THIS COULD VERY WELL BE THE LOCATION THE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING OVER THIS AREA AS
WELL AND HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN TODAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS OVERNIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SURGE OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING.
THE SURGE OF STRONG STORMS WILL ENTER THE AREA AND COULD POSSIBLY
EVOLVE INTO AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION INTO A POTENTIAL FLOODING
THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND AREAS COULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL
PONDING OF WATER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE RAPID RISES OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST...IT WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTH TO THE LAKE SHORE AS A
WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND UPPER
60S IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS EAST FORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE COAST. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FORCING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FORECAST
AREA. A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S EAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST BY
SATURDAY. LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE THEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER WAVE THAT
MAY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. SO AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WE SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS BEING REPORTED WITH THIS
LINE...WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH TIME. SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
OF MVFR RAIN FOLLOWS. IFR IN TS. AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT QUESTION
WILL BE IF WE GET ANY IFR AROUND DAWN. CONDITIONS NOT TOO LOW
UPSTREAM...SO WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS...BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE...WILL MONITOR. WINDS FAIRLY VARIABLE TONIGHT. INITIALLY
WEST FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE LINE...THEN VARIABLE. FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTH FLOW...GUSTS TO 25KTS OR SO. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
VARYING FROM A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. LATER TONIGHT...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
LYING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WARRANTING A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH HOW
STRONG WINDS WILL GET...WHICH WILL AFFECT WAVE HEIGHTS. FOR NOW IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT
THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP SPEED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NOTABLY OVERNIGHT AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD REACH 2.0"
WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND COULD DROP A QUICK INCH TO AN AREA. THE
THREAT OF TRAINING STORMS IS HIGH SUGGESTING THE THREAT OF A QUICK 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES THIS HIGH COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL BETWEEN 10 PM
TONIGHT AND 8 AM THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-020>023-
031>033-038-089.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>010-
017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...MULLEN/YEAGER
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
147 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
COLD FRONT PASS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF
CWA...HOWEVER INCHING EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH TIME. CONTINUED
RELYING ON HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE...BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND DECREASED POPS
SOME ACROSS THE SOUTH UNTIL PRE-DAWN WHEN CONVECTING COMPLEX
FORMING NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH. HAVE THAT COMPLEX GETTING TO WESTERN CWA
BORDER 09-10Z...AND INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS 13-14Z. NO CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME GRIDS TOMORROW...GRIDS STILL ON PAR WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PLOWS EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THIS FORECAST FOR BOTH SEVERE POTENTIAL THRU
EARLY TONIGHT...AND POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS...THEY ARE NOT WITH QPF FIELDS...WITH
THE PROBLEM BEING MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES UPSTREAM. FIRST...AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING
OVER VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE IN SCATTERED STORMS THRU THIS EVENING
EVERYWHERE GIVEN SPC SLIGHT RISK. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THINK THIS
WILL INITIATE A COMPLEX LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. WILL TARGET
THIS AREA WITH BEST POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A BAND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY CONVECTION WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF AND
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THOUGH NOT
LIKELY SEVERE. HOWEVER...THIS ADDED CONVECTION ON TOP OF THE WHAT
OCCURS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH AND EAST MAY BRING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH AND EAST
PORTION OF OUR AREA FROM 00Z THRU 18Z THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 FOR
LOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY IN THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY. EXPECT
ANY LINGERING SHRA TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED
H500 VORT MAX WILL SHARPEN UP THE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND SLOW EASTERN PROGRESSION A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER RIPPLE
TO DROP DOWN THE BACK SIDE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY SEEN IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND
INCLUDED A MINIMAL POP. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE FORECAST WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A NEEDED DRY BREAK FOR THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL...AND
SOME VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEAMPLIFYING...AND THEN
REESTABLISHING...THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DURING THE INTERVENING PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW...A COUPLE OF
MIDLEVEL WAVES WILL BE RIDING ACROSS. THE FIRST WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SECOND...MORE
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT...AND WILL BE DISTURBANCE THAT DIGS THE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE INDIVIDUALLY PROGRESSIVE...BUT RAIN TOTALS MAY
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GET THE MOST
RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
USED HPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE HEAVILY FOR THIS PERIOD. SUGGESTED
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT FAR FROM MEX/ENSEMBLE NUMBERS AND DID NOT
STRAY FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FIRST CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING...VERY
GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 40KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS COMPLEX. THIS WILL
AFFECT HTS TO CRW LINE AND NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS COMPLEX AS WELL. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WITH THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IFR AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN ANY
STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFT 04Z
FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AND COLD FRONT COULD VARY...ALONG WITH THE LOWER CATEGORY
CEILINGS THAT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND THE STORMS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/13/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M M L L L L L H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
LINGERING IFR POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ009>011-
016>020-027>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/CL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...JS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1219 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED FOR WATCH. THE MAIN THREAT IS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO...HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY BE SEVERE
OR TORNADIC.
PREVIOUS...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE WATCH. CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING IN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE THIS EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LINE...IT TOO COULD BECOME
SEVERE. THIS IS A PDS WATCH WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KTS. THERMODYNAMICS
BACKS THIS UP WITH DRY AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNDRAFT CAPES
OVER 1000K/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST FORWARD PROPAGATION
ADDING TO WIND POTENTIAL. ROTATING SUPERCELLS ALSO SUPPORTED SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS...THE WAITING GAME BEGINS. SO FAR ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
BE WELL CAPPED AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM. THE OTHER ISSUE AT HAND IS THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND. WE NEVER CLEARED OUT OR HAD ANY BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST AS EXPECTED AND THIS IS ALSO LIMITING ANY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE REGION.
COORDINATED WITH COFORECASTER...IT APPEARS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
HAS SET UP BACK OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME AND THIS COULD VERY WELL BE THE LOCATION THE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING OVER THIS AREA AS
WELL AND HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN TODAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS OVERNIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SURGE OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING.
THE SURGE OF STRONG STORMS WILL ENTER THE AREA AND COULD POSSIBLY
EVOLVE INTO AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION INTO A POTENTIAL FLOODING
THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND AREAS COULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL
PONDING OF WATER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE RAPID RISES OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST...IT WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTH TO THE LAKE SHORE AS A
WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND UPPER
60S IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS EAST FORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE COAST. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS WELL. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FORCING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FORECAST
AREA. A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S EAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST BY
SATURDAY. LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE THEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER WAVE THAT
MAY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. SO AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WE SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT...INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE
WESTERN TAF SITES SOMETIME AROUND 22Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING...MOVING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...A SUBSTANTIAL GUST
FRONT COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
WILL MONITOR THE THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO DETERMINE
WHETHER OR NOT TO ADD A VARIABLE WIND GUST TO TAFS FOR THE 00-04Z
TIME FRAME.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND IFR THURSDAY MORNING. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
VARYING FROM A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. LATER TONIGHT...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
LYING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WARRANTING A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH HOW
STRONG WINDS WILL GET...WHICH WILL AFFECT WAVE HEIGHTS. FOR NOW IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY...BUT
THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP SPEED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NOTABLY OVERNIGHT AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD REACH 2.0"
WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND COULD DROP A QUICK INCH TO AN AREA. THE
THREAT OF TRAINING STORMS IS HIGH SUGGESTING THE THREAT OF A QUICK 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES THIS HIGH COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL BETWEEN 10 PM
TONIGHT AND 8 AM THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-020>023-
031>033-038-089.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-
027>030-036-037-047.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN/YEAGER
MARINE...MULLEN/YEAGER
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1138 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
LOOKING AT SATELLITE LOOP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE AN MESO
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. COMPLEX EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INTO OHIO AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WEST VIRGINA AND SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND TENNESSEE WHERE 700
MBAR TEMPS ARE 14 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ARE CURRENTLY CAPPED OFF.
AT 04Z SURFACE COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN EASTERN ILLINOIS
DOWN NORTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS AND THEN INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
LATEST GFS RUN PLACES FRONT DOWN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AT 12Z AND
DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT
WANTED TO BRING ANY CONVECTION INTO THE MID STATE BEFORE 12Z AND
THE LATEST RUC RUN CONTINUES THIS TREND. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL (H-TRIPLE-R) SHOWS A SKINNY LINE OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE ONLY
SHOWERS BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE AT 12Z. THINK SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z FROM ABOUT NASHVILLE AND EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO
KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN WORK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE THERES
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LATEST SREF RUN SHOWS. WINDS WILL PICK BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. ALL IN ALL LOOKING AT VFR
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BOYD
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEARED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING IT REMAINS
QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
SO FAR ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE AND NO WELL DEFINED MCS
HAS FORMED. BASED ON THIS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY AN MCS WILL AFFECT OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
RUSH OUT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AFTER
12Z. BASED ON THIS REASONING...WILL ONLY HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP OVER NORTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER POPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD
AND MADE OTHER TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND OTHER GRIDS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT TEMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER
THERE IS A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10Z IN NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA AROUND 12Z AND ON THE PLATEAU ABOUT 14Z.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. A COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN
THROUGH THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...ANY
CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU ERN HALF...OVERALL WX
PATTERN NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.
WITH THE NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU
SAT...MCS DEVELOPMENTS THAT GENERATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE IS HAPPENING AS THESE AFTERNOON HRS PROGRESS TODAY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF DROPPING SEWD AND POTENTIALLY INFLUENCES OUR WX
HERE ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THU....ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. THIS DEVELOPMENT...SEWD MOVEMENT...AND
CONVECTION STRENGTH WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS IT MOVES CLOSER
TO OUR AREA FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT DO EXPECT ANY MCS ACTIVITY TO BE GENERALLY WEAKER AS IT
MOVES INTO THESE PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BEING DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NOT THE
BEST EXPECTED OVERALL SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS TO KEEP ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS POTENTIAL HIGH...BUT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS BY THE MORNING HRS ON THU ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WRN PORTIONS. CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEAK SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON THU ALSO.
SPC`S DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP LOCATIONS JUST W OF AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS...WITH SOME OF THESE TSTMS
HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THOUGH NO
ORGANIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED...WOULD NOT WITH THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE BE SURPRISED FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP. BELIEVE THAT A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE PLATEAU REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON THU...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN
BEHIND THE SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE TO ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS NW PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID STATE
ON THU AFTERNOON. WITH SFC RIDGING DYNAMICS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE THU
NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT AND A DRY UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
WILL GO GENERALLY CLOSE TO GFS MOS VALUES ON LOWS FOR TONIGHT...RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES PLATEAU WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVERAGE...AND WILL GO CLOSE TO GFS VALUES THRU FRI NIGHT. AS FOR AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMP VALUES...THU SHOULD NOT BE AS WARM AS THIS AFTERNOON VALUES...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES ON THU AND EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES
ON FRI AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD INTO THE MID STATE.
AS FOR SAT THRU THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ALSO IN THIS
MORNING`S AFD AND MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE...POTENTIAL MCS
DEVELOPMENTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY TO OUR NE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS
CONTINUE TO HOLD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN FINALLY BREAKING DOWN
DURING THE LATE SUN-MON TIME FRAME...WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL IN NATURE
UNTIL SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES AGAIN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE MID STATE AREA
BY MIDWEEK. ANOTHER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUE ALSO.
SEEMS LIKE MORE CONSENSUS HAS ALSO BEEN REACHED BETWEEN THE LATEST EURO/GFS/DGEX
SOLUTIONS ON THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED. THUS...EXPECT ONLY TO MAKE SOME MINOR TWEEKS
HERE AND THERE TO CURRENT FORECAST GRIDDED VALUES WHICH GENERALLY SHOW ISO/SCT
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPS...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...MID 80S PLATEAU WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SPANNING THE 60S...I.E. TEMPS CLOSE
TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
150 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EARLIER STORMS WITH FAINT WAVE THAT CLIPPED THROUGH HAVE MOVED
SOUTH LEAVING THE REGION IN A CONTINUED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER
EVENING SOUNDINGS BUT WITH MOST FOCUS TO THE NORTH/NW. LATEST HRRR
ATTEMPTS TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS MIXING DIMINISHES...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS
SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW UNTIL LATE. SINCE NOT SEEING MUCH TRIGGER THIS
FAR SOUTH EARLY ON AND DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT...LEANING MORESO TOWARD
THE DRIER RAP SOLUTION WHICH ONLY CLIPS THE FAR NW OVERNIGHT. THUS
ONLY BOOSTING POPS SLIGHTLY TO HIGHER CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH LITTLE COVERAGE ELSW UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.
ELSW SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PC AS DEBRIS CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE AHEAD OF
A DECAYING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS WVA EARLY THURSDAY. NOT A LOT
OF CHANGE TO WARM/MUGGY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
WILL LIKELY BRING SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SOME METEOROLOGISTS
ARE COMPARING THIS FRONT TO THE DERECHO OF JUNE 2012. THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING THEN JUMPING TO A LEE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS LIKE TO FEED OFF OF HEAT WHICH IS
LACKING IN THE MORNING. THE FRONT MAY NOT JUMP TO THE LEE TROUGH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SW VA
PIEDMONT...SOUTHSIDE VA...AND NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER 90S. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIALLY FOR
BLACKSBURG CWA TO HAVE SEVERE WEATHER. LAST YEAR`S DERECHO MOVED
INTO A VERY WARM ENVIRONMENT OF 90F TO 105F LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ALSO WITH THIS FRONT...A WEST WIND WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
WILL POSSIBLY FADE TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE MORNING. AS
THE FRONT JUMPS TO THE LEE TROUGH...A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY
RUSH HOUR TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOING TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOLLOWS THE MAIN FRONT. THINK THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CONVECTION TO WORK IN DRIER AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES OUT BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN MOST OF THE REGION...LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF SE WV.
THERE IS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MTNS
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS OF SE WV/ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS OF VA.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER FOR PERIOD OF 48 HOURS WHILE SFC HIGH
BUILDS OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER
80S EAST...FOLLOWED BY LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 50 WEST TO MID
50S EAST.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GRADIENT THU NIGH-FRIDAY FOR SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS...GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA.
SUNDAY...LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE SETTING OUR AREA
UP IN THE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY. SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY
OF TYPICAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES FROM GREAT
LAKES-CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR OVERALL BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ACTIVE PATTERN WHERE 2-3 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS.
FRONT APPEARS TO FINALLY INCH SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO
CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS
JUST REACHING CENTRAL OHIO FROM THE WEST AS OF 1AM. EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY WEST AND NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6AM...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
STORMS WILL FILL IN OVER LWB AND LYH.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING SO EXPECT A
HIGH CEILING AT KROA/KBCB AND KDAN THROUGH 12Z.
MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE STORMS TO REACH BLF AND LWB
AROUND 13Z/9AM. WEST WINDS MAY WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
ROA AND BCB BUT THEN LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REORGANIZE ALONG OR
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT KDAN AND KLYH AFTER 16Z/NOON.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY BOTH
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN VFR
WEATHER. MAY SEE FOG AT THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING...
KLWB/KBCB...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
712 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
LOTS OF STRONG TSRA AND LIGHTNING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW/WARM FRONT CROSSING THAT AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...WV LOOP
INDICATES NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGHING CLOSE BY OVER ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. MAIN WAVE WITHIN THAT TROUGH IS SLIDING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY
BUT ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS JUST TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
AS OF 05Z. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO QUEBEC EXPECT THE SFC-H85
TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS UPR LAKES THIS MORNING. SFC TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
IN WAKE OF TROUGH IN ONTARIO NOT TOO DIFFERENT THAN CURRENT READINGS
OVER UPR MICHIGAN. COOLING AT 925-850MB IS SEEN THOUGH WITH H85
TEMPS DOWN TO +8C AT CWPL WHILE READINGS AT MPX/GRB AND APX WERE
AROUND +13C. SIMILAR COOLING AT 925MB WITH +20C AT APX FALLING OFF
TO +10C AT CWPL AND +13C AT CWZC /MOOSONEE ONTARIO AT SOUTH SHORE OF
JAMES BAY/. AT 00Z...ONLY UPSTREAM SOUNDING THAT SHOWED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS CWZC AND NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE OBS
IN ONTARIO ARE SHOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS THUS FAR...THOUGH
07Z IMAGERY INDICATES LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STARTING TO FORM OVR HURON
MOUNTAINS. MODELS COMPARED WELL TO EACH OTHER INITIALIZING SFC
THROUGH H5 FEATURES UPSTREAM. NAM INITIALIZED SOUNDINGS AT CWPL AND
CWZC WELL. WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND RUC13 FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECASTS FOR TODAY OVR CWA.
FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT...ENCOURAGED TO SEE LOWER CLOUDS
STARTING TO FORM. THINK IDEA OF BKN LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING STILL
ON TRACK...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. HAVE
STRUGGLED ON WHAT TO DO WITH DRIZZLE CHANCES. WAS GOING TO PULL
MENTION BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED LINGERING DRYING BENEATH
HIGHER MOISTURE 950-900MB. ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY AS T/TD DEPRESSION AT STDM4
HAS STEADILY NARROWED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THINK THIS MOISTENING
COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW COULD STILL RESULT IN LGT DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES. DRIZZLE WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING. ONCE CLOUDS
SET UP...THINK THEY MAY STUBBORN TO LEAVE AS THERMAL TROUGHING FM
925-850MB PERSISTS ALONG WITH A CYCLONIC CONVERGENT NNE FLOW
925-850MB. KEPT BKN CLOUDS IN THROUGH EARLY AFTN WITH SCT CLOUDS
CLOUDS STAYING AROUND THROUGH MID AFTN IN THOSE UPSLOPE AREAS.
EVEN AWAY FM FAVORED AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...THERMAL TROUGHING AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ACT TO INCREASE CU FOR A WHILE BEFORE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATE TODAY. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING OF SKIES
LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHARP 925-850MB DRYING WITH
DWPNT DEPRESSIONS OVER 15C SURGES INTO THE REGION FROM ONTARIO.
ONE ITEM TO NOTE ABOUT TODAY. A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS IN PLACE FOR
SHORELINES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES AS WAVES BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET. LOWERING WAVES WILL LESSEN THE SWIM RISK BY THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...A COOL NIGHT IN STORE DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA DROPS
ACROSS REGION. WINDS FCST TO BECOME CALM OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPR 30S...MAYBE EVEN MID
30S. CURRENT READINGS BENEATH THE HIGH IN MANITOBA HAVE ALREADY INTO
UPR 30S AS OF 07Z. KEPT THE FROST MENTION FOR INTERIOR WEST...BUT IT
REMAINS TOO ISOLD TO MENTION IN THE HWO OR SFP.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
FRI...HI PRES IS FCST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP ON
FRI AFTN TO THE E OF UPR RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SCENTRAL CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF
CLOSED LO OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES JUST N OF THE BORDER. ALTHOUGH
SOME HI CLDS IN THE DVLPG SLY FLOW/WAD PATTERN BTWN THE HI AND LOWER
PRES TO THE W MAY DRIFT INTO THE WRN COUNTIES IN THE AFTN...THE DAY
SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH LLVL DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 11-12C RANGE AND MIXING TO H8 ON FCST
SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. THE DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WL
CAUSE SFC DEWPTS TO FALL INTO THE 20S IN THE AFTN OVER THE
INTERIOR...WITH MIN RH AS LO AS 20 PCT OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE CORE
OF DRIEST AIR. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
FOCUS FOR FRI NGT THRU THE WEEKEND WL THEN SHIFT TO PCPN CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES RETREATING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND CLOSED LO THAT DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY E ACRS SRN
CANADA AND TOWARD THE UPR LKS BY LATE SUN. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME DEEP LYR ISENTROPIC ASCENT DVLPG ON FRI NGT
WITH BAND OF HIER MID LVL RH MOVING IN FM THE W. BUT GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ANTECENT AIRMASS...TENDENCY FOR MOST IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNGVC TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NW CLOSER TO THE LO ALLOWING
A MORE PERSISTENT UPR RDG AXIS OVER THE UPR LKS...AND PRESENCE OF
WARM FNT IN IOWA/ILLINOIS THAT WL INTERCEPT THE BULK OF RETURNING
LLVL MSTR...TRIMMED BACK THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE FRI NGT POPS SHOWN
IN PREVIOUS FCST TO MORE ALIGN WITH 00Z NAM/GFS/CNDN FCSTS. MIN
TEMPS ON FRI NGT SHOULD BE COOLEST OVER THE E CLOSER TO RETREATING
HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR.
SAT/SAT NGT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...SGNFT MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION
OF BAND OF HIER MID LVL RH ALIGNED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
AHEAD OF SHRTWV MOVING E THRU SW ONTARIO WELL IN ADVANCE OF SLOWER
CLOSED LO IN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS BAND OF HIER RH IS FCST TO DRIFT E
ACRS UPR MI FOLLOWED BY MID LVL DRYING IN THE JET SURGE REGION ON
THE SRN FLANK OF THE SHRTWV MOVING THRU SW ONTARIO. THE 00Z GFS IS
THEN MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DVLPG MORE SHRA/TS OVER THE W IN THE AFTN
WITH SHRTWV INTERACTING WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY ALLOWED BY CLRG
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MSTR AXIS. THE GFS THEN MOVES THESE
SHRA/TS E ACRS THE CWA ON SAT NGT. THE 00Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL JET SURGE DRYING...WITH FCST SDNGS
SHOWING EFFECTIVE MID LVL CAPPING AND ALMOST NO PCPN. PREFER THE
COMPROMISE 00Z CNDN MODEL HANDLING OF THE POPS GIVEN BETTER
PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES RELATIVE TO CLOSED LO LINGERING BACK W OF
LK WINNIPEG THRU 12Z SUN...WITH LESS AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING THAN
THE NAM AND LESS DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR INSTABILITY SHRA/TS OVER THE W
THAN SHOWN BY THE GFS LATE SAT AFTN/NGT. BUT PASSAGE OF THIS WEAKER
SHRTWV STILL WARRANTS CHC POPS ON SAT NGT AS INDICATED BY THE CNDN
MODEL.
SUN...THERE IS A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHRTWV RDG BTWN DEPARTING
WEAK SHRTWV TO THE E AND SLOWLY APRCHG CLOSED LO FCST TO OPEN AND
APRCH NW MN LATE IN THE DAY WL BE AN INFLUENCE ON UPR MI WX. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WX OVER THE CWA ON SUN. SO LOWERED MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS A BIT TO REFLECT THE MID LVL DRYING FCST/LACK OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WHICH IS FCST TO ARRIVE ONLY LATER IN THE DAY OVER
THE W CLOSER TO APRCHG SHRTWV.
SUN NGT/MON... BEST CHC FOR SHRA/SOME TS LOOKS TO BE ON SUN NGT INTO
MON WHEN DPVA/FAIRLY VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/HGT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV FM THE WNW IMPACT THE CWA. MODEL
CONSENSUS HI CHC POPS APPEAR ON THE RIGHT TRACK.
EXTENDED...A DRIER NW FLOW ALF IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV
SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WX TO THE UPR LKS ON TUE AND WED. ONLY
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE A STRONGER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW...WHICH COMMONLY BRING SOME SHRA/TS TO THE AREA IN THE
SUMMER IF THERE IS ENUF MSTR/INSTABILITY. BUT NOTHING HIER THAN SCHC
POPS ARE WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
NRLY WINDS ARE INCREASING BEHIND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IS AT KSAW DUE TO
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO HAVE INCLUDED
BKN LOWER CLOUDS AT IWD THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
N WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS TODAY...HIGHEST OVER THE E PART OF THE
LAKE...UNDER A SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
BUILDING HI PRES IN ONTARIO WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HI MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THEN A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY WILL CAUSE WINDS UNDER 15
KTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
932 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013
.UPDATE...
TIMING OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL FRONT AND THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IT MAY PRODUCE IS THE FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY.
NAM BRINGS IT INTO BILLINGS AREA (AS A FRAME OF REFERENCE) BY 6
PM...GFS BY 8 PM...AND RAP AS LATE AS 10 PM. OUR POP GRIDS ARE A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS AT THIS TIME. RAP HAS ME WONDERING...SINCE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH NORMALLY SUGGESTS SLOWER
MOVEMENT...BUT WE DO HAVE JET MAXES ALREADY ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGH
TO GET IT GOING EAST. WILL BE MONITORING SURFACE PRESSURE
TENDENCIES CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN AN ATTEMPT TO NAIL DOWN
THE GENERAL TIME FRAME FOR THREATENING WEATHER. WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE MEANTIME MOVE UP OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND MAYBE IN THE CENTRAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FAR EAST SEEMS WELL CAPPED AT THIS TIME. I HAD TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN THE EASTERN BORDER SECTIONS SUCH AS BAKER
AS SE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING A GREAT DEAL IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
OVERVIEW...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ON WEDNESDAY REALLY LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY. THIS WAS MAINLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL
STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE MORNING FOLLOWING HEAVY RAINS ON
TUESDAY. LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE MORNING ALLOWED THIS
CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST INTO MID DAY BY WHICH TIME CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY IN PLACE. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES
WERE HELD A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST EXPECTATIONS WHICH TOOK
AWAY ENERGY FOR STORMS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS THERE AND
THUNDERSTORMS DID OCCUR...BUT OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE AROUND SHERIDAN
THE STRENGTH OF STORMS WAS BELOW EXPECTATIONS. SO WHY IS TODAY
DIFFERENT...FIRST STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND SHERIDAN AND NEAR
HARLOWTON...WHICH SHOULD BE EASILY BURNED OFF BY THE SUN BY MID
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION AND COMBINED WITH
PREFRONTAL WARMING AND WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 75 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE. WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA FORECAST CAPE VALUES OF
1500 TO 2500 JOULES SEEM REASONABLY ATTAINABLE TODAY. SHEAR VALUES
OF 40 TO 50KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED STRONG UPDRAFTS AND ENERGY
WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG
WITH A PREFRONTAL TROF AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WESTERLY
WINDS WILL DRY THINGS OUT ALLOWING FOR A COOL AND DRY AFTERNOON
AND A NICE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREAS WEST OF ROSEBUD
COUNTY WILL BE FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THIS AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AREAS TO THE
EAST WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD AN
ISOLATED STORM MANAGE TO BREAK THE CAP THERE LATE AFTERNOON IT
WOULD LIKELY TURN SEVERE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2500
JOULES PROGGED THERE ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR. COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS PUSHING THE SEVERE THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF AND
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT TIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR AREAS BURNED BY
2012 WILDFIRES AS WELL AS SHERIDAN...GOLDEN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
STILLWATER COUNTIES WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONG QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW 0C EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET.
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES BEFORE TURNING
MORE NORTHWARD MID TO LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT
EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...AND THAT
NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN THAT. THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST ONCE WE GET PAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO
RIDGING ALOFT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW
WARMING TREND FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.
WESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS WILL REMAIN A DRY FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGING ALOFT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEW POINTS AND BRING A
SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO A HEAD BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CHURCH
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST
OF A KSHR-KBIL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
IN AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
KLVM TO HARLOWTON AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THE KBIL AND KSHR AREAS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE KMLS AND KBHK AREAS LATE THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 50KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORM. THE MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN BE OBSCURED AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 050/067 047/078 051/079 052/080 055/085 052/077
3/T 64/T 10/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
LVM 076 042/062 042/078 043/079 045/081 046/084 049/075
4/T 65/T 10/U 01/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 085 051/069 046/078 050/080 051/080 056/088 052/081
3/T 64/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 085 054/071 050/078 053/079 053/078 055/084 057/082
2/T 64/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 086 053/071 046/078 050/080 051/079 055/087 055/087
1/B 53/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 21/U
BHK 080 053/070 047/076 050/075 050/075 054/080 058/079
1/N 63/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 21/U
SHR 085 049/067 043/078 047/078 049/079 053/086 050/085
2/T 62/T 10/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
29-31-34-36>38-42-57-58-64-65-67.
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
647 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...INCLUDING SEASONALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE PAC NW LEADING TO DECENT JET AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BASED ON EVENING UA ANALYSIS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS YIELDING ERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS AND NORTH OF THIS
FRONT SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS INDICATED DECREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ALOFT. COOLING CLOUD TOPS
INDICATED IN IR SAT PICS IN NERN CO AND NRN KS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE EXISTING
PRECIPITATION GRIDS...THE PLACEMENT OF WHICH WAS ON TRACK. REST OF
THE FCST LOOKS INGOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...THROUGH NOON TODAY...ISOLD SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST INITIALLY TO COVER ECHOES ON RADAR GENERATED
BY A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY SEEN EARLIER ON THE KFTG 88D. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND RAP SHORT
TERM FCSTS SHOW MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS A RESULT OF THE WAA AS MENTIONED. THEREFORE WILL
INCLUDE ISOLD SHRA MENTION IN SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...THOUGH THIS
WILL BE A LOW QPF /IF ANY AT ALL/ EVENT. MAY BE A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT LATEST INFO SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING CURRENTLY.
IN RESPONSE TO THE JET COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SFC
PRESSURES WILL LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THRU THE DAY
TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NEXT 24 HRS. SEVERAL SMALL PV
ANOMALIES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE QUICK FLOW AND WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD YIELD A FAVORABLE PATTERN OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT AS AN EML ADVECTS EASTWARD ATOP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LACKING IN THIS PATTERN WHICH WOULD MEAN THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST...AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUPPORTED BY THE FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODELS HAVE THIS
IDEA HANDLED FAIRLY WELL...HOWEVER AS EXPECTED FINE SCALE DETAIL
REMAIN A CHALLENGE. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
EVEN SMOKE FROM FIRES IN COLORADO COULD MAKE TEMP FCSTS A TRICK
TODAY BUT WILL BE COOLER IN THE SOUTHWEST THAN YDAY WARMER IN THE
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEB AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. STALLED SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM LOW OVER NW KS NORTHWARD TO A LOW OVER THE PLAINS OF CANADA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HIGHS...AS SEVERAL THINGS TO CONSIDER. WARM TEMPS
ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...MORE SUN AND WARM...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE WEST. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE TO THE
SOUTH...SEEING MORE INFLUENCE FOR THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE
RIDGE AND RECENT WARMER PERFORMANCE. MORE OF A MODEL BLEND ACROSS
THE NORTH. AS FOR THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...GOOD INSTABILITY
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME STRONG CAP. ISOLD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...THEN SHOULD PUSH NE DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAP MAY KEEP CELLS MORE
DISCRETE...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING MORE OF A COMPLEX AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION TO
PUSH SOUTH WITH IT. HOWEVER ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND
THE RIDGE...ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ALSO SEEING A
COUPLE OF WAVES RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ELEVATED
CONVECTION. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
UP IN THE LOWER 60S...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 50S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE RETROGRADES AND BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
WEST...PUSHING TO THE EAST...EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TEMPS STILL IN
THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WARMING AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD FOR MID WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S TO MID
90S...POSSIBLY WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASING ACROSS THE FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE
STATE ON TRACK AS MODELS SUGGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO GO ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WEAK
RETURNS ALSO SHOWING UP ON KLNX 88D IN PERKINS AND KEITH COUNTIES.
DESPITE THIS DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DECENT RAIN MAKING
IT TO THE GROUND AND EXPECT CONVERAGE TO BE LIMITED SO HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE KLBF TAF THIS MORNING BUT WILL
MONITOR. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF TSRA TONIGHT AT KLBF
AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER WEST MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THERE
WOULD ALSO BE SOME CHC OF FOG OR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE. FOR KVTN...MAINLY MID CLOUDS WITH THE BELIEF THAT BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF KVTN TERMINAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1045 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY...
...AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...
THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KGSO SHOWED A GOOD CAP BETWEEN 900MB AND
ROUGHLY 700MB...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE RELATIVELY DRY...
BELOW 1.25 INCHES. JUST UPSTREAM...HOWEVER...THE KRNK SOUNDING
SHOWED SOME OF THAT CAP ERODING...WHICH IS INDEED FORECAST BY THE
GUIDANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS NEARLY 100M HEIGHT FALLS...NOTED
UPSTREAM TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 500MB ON THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES...
HEAD TOWARD VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...THE CAP SHOULD ERODE. WITH
INSTABILITY ALREADY SOMEWHAT PLENTIFUL THIS MORNING...AS THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS A MIXED-LAYER CAPE WELL OVER 2000J/KG
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE...500-1000J/KG OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. DEVELOPMENT COULD
BE FAIRLY RAPID AS THE CAP ERODES AND DRY AIR IS OVERCOME...WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAP...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC ON THE
MORNING SOUNDINGS...AND FORECAST TO BE AROUND 7C/KM IN THE
1000-500MB LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST
ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT THAT IS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO CERTAINLY
BE COOL ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION EVEN IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST TIMING WOULD SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z TOWARD THE TRIAD...20Z TO 23Z IN
VICINITY OF THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR...AND 22Z OR SO TOWARD INTERSTATE 95
ESPECIALLY FROM ROCKY MOUNT SOUTH. THESE TIMES ARE IN CONCERT WITH
THE EROSION OF THE CAP AS FORECAST BY THE LATEST RAP...AS WELL AS
THE LATEST HRRR WRF. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 40KT...AND 925MB WINDS TO 35KT...THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT OTHER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY URBAN CONCERNS...CURRENTLY THINK PROGRESS OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FLASH FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES SUGGESTED HIGHS A TRIFLE WARMER THAN FORECAST...AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 1 HAVE RAISED MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO AS
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE FOR LONGER THERE. HIGHS SHOULD BE 90
TO 95 TOWARD THE TRIAD...AND MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO
LOWER DEW POINTS SUCH THAT HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT STILL AS HIGH AS AROUND 103F TOWARD KMEB...KFAY...AND
KCTZ. ALREADY...THE HEAT INDEX IS JUST OVER 100F AT KCTZ.
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE THE CAP ERODES
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30KT ARE PROBABLE...AND ONE OR TWO CLOSE TO 35KT.
GIVEN THE WET GROUND OF LATE...AN ISOLATED SHALLOWLY-ROOTED TREE OR
THREE COULD FALL AHEAD OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IF WE ARE ABLE TO
RESOLVE SUCH WIND GUSTS. CERTAINLY...THE WET GROUND IS A CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHTNING
SHOULD ALSO BE FREQUENT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE ALOFT...-10C TO -30C CAPE IS 1000-1500J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON.
SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING BY INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANTICIPATING THE
GREATER INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY EAST...HAVE LOWER LIKELY POPS
TOWARD THE TRIAD...VERY HIGH LIKELY POPS TOWARD INTERSTATE 95.
OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70 WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE BEHIND THE DEEP
CONVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
MORNING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S (COOLEST NORTH) WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S...PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 50S IN RURAL/LOW-LYING AREAS. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM THURSDAY...
A DRY WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON-TUE NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT
WEEK. NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT-SUN TO BRING A MILD
TO WARM AND DRY WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR MID JUNE
WITH READINGS IN THE 55-60 RANGE NORTH... AND 60-65 SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING... MODIFYING TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SAT-SUN...
THESE LOWS WILL BE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID 80S
SUNDAY.
MON-WED... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AGAIN THIS PERIOD. THE
MAIN STORM TRACK IS AGAIN FORECAST WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO BE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SE TO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WOULD PLACE AREAS TO OUR NORTH AT THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER... THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION. THE
CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SSW FLOW INCREASES THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC. HOWEVER... THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH DURING OR AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE ON WED AS THE FRONT APPEARS TO SLOW DOWN AND
POSSIBLY STALL NEAR SE NC ON WED. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE 85-90 AFTER
LOWS OF 65-70. LOWS TUESDAY 70-74 WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER STILL... WITH LOWS 65-70.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION MOVES
IN WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING
OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE 19Z TO 21Z IN THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD...20Z TO 23Z IN THE TRIANGLE NEAR KRDU...AND IN
VICINITY OF 22Z TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. SIGNIFICANT CROSSWINDS COULD
DEVELOP WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KRDU...KRWI...AND
KFAY COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 30KT THIS AFTERNOON
IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH MIXING AHEAD OF DEEP CONVECTION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/NNW AT 10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 03-06Z FRIDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...DJF/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
808 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED SOME OF THE FLOOD WATCH BASED ON THE LOW RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY.
STILL THINKING THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO WILL SWING INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO
THIS AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE REAL HIGH. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED.
KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH GOING BECAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE STILL
RISING...PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY.
ON THE EDGE ABOUT THIS MORNING WHETHER SOME OF THE SHOWERS FROM
MICHIGAN WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION...THE GFS AND HRRR KIND OF
HINTS AT THAT. WILL MONITOR THAT AND LOWER THE POPS AS NEEDED. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER IS JUST ABOUT GONE. THE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO
DECREASE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OH AND NW PA...ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER MOVES IN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD SNEAK INTO
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE THREAT
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ENDED THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD WORK.
USED MAINLY HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERE WEATHER BEHIND US. IFR CONDITIONS IN WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
AFFECTING CLE/MFD AND POINTS EAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS IS IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. ACTUAL IFR AREA IS RATHER
THIN...ALTHOUGH LAKE ERIE AND NE OH/NW MAY PROLONG IT JUST A BIT
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST TODAY NNW AROUND 25 KNOTS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. MAY GET SOME STRATUS REDEVELOP
TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND ON AND OFF
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED TO START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AVON POINT WEST
IMMEDIATELY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HUGGING THE LAKESHORE AND AS IT
SINKS SOUTH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
ENOUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ERIE TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. LATER TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
BUILDING IN WELL ENOUGH AND WINDS/WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING. RIP
CURRENT RISK ELEVATES INTO THE HIGH CATEGORY FOR A TIME TODAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD. ELSEWHERE IT STICKS IN MODERATE
CATEGORY.
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...SHIFTING EAST
SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
WESTERN LAKES MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ027>030-036-037-047.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ031-038.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
731 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED SOME OF THE FLOOD WATCH BASED ON THE LOW RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY.
STILL THINKING THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO WILL SWING INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO
THIS AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE REAL HIGH. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED.
KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH GOING BECAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE STILL
RISING...PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY.
ON THE EDGE ABOUT THIS MORNING WHETHER SOME OF THE SHOWERS FROM
MICHIGAN WILL ROTATE INTO THE REGION...THE GFS AND HRRR KIND OF
HINTS AT THAT. WILL MONITOR THAT AND LOWER THE POPS AS NEEDED. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER IS JUST ABOUT GONE. THE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO
DECREASE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OH AND NW PA...ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER MOVES IN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD SNEAK INTO
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE THREAT
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ENDED THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD WORK.
USED MAINLY HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS BEING REPORTED WITH THIS
LINE...WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH TIME. SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
OF MVFR RAIN FOLLOWS. IFR IN TS. AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT QUESTION
WILL BE IF WE GET ANY IFR AROUND DAWN. CONDITIONS NOT TOO LOW
UPSTREAM...SO WILL GO WITH MVFR CEILINGS...BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE...WILL MONITOR. WINDS FAIRLY VARIABLE TONIGHT. INITIALLY
WEST FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE LINE...THEN VARIABLE. FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTH FLOW...GUSTS TO 25KTS OR SO. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN OF THE LAKE
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE TODAY.
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS FOR A TIME TODAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE GIVING SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ON THAT. STILL WENT AHEAD WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WOULD THINK THAT WE COULD EASILY
AVERAGE 4 FOOTERS. LATER TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING
IN WELL ENOUGH AND WINDS/WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING. RIP CURRENT RISK
ELEVATES INTO THE HIGH CATEGORY FOR A TIME TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD. ELSEWHERE IT STICKS IN MODERATE CATEGORY.
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...SHIFTING EAST
SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
WESTERN LAKES MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ027>030-036-037-047.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ031-038.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1147 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORMS SYSTEM OVER NWRN PA EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY BEFORE A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A RETURN OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LINE OF STRONG STORMS THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH
WINDS EARLY TODAY HAS MOVED TO THE NJ COAST. THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW THAT TRIGGERED THE LINE ARE STILL MEANDERING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR STILL IN PLACE. THE BIG
QUESTION IS IF WE CAN SEE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER IN TIME FOR NEW
CONVECTION TO BECOME AN ISSUE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES EAST OR SOUTHEAST. MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST
CHANCE OF THE CONVECTION REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING OR REDEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION. CONCERN IS THE BINOVC/CLEARING THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RAISE THE THREAT. THE RAP SHOWS CAPES
REBOUNDING IN THAT AREA AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF MOST
CONCERN IN THE CWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE SERN 3 COUNTIES
SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF OUR BORDER. IF IT BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTH AT ALL...THOSE
COUNTIES WOULD BE MOST UNDER THE GUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING A DIMINISHING
THREAT OF SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY.
DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AFT...GIVEN
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SE...AND COLD AIR ALOFT.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY THIS WEEKEND.
DID BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
NOW...IN LINE WITH OTHER OFFICES AND NEW GUIDANCE.
STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY...AS WE ARE IN
THE WARM SECTOR...BUT WEAK WAVES ALOFT MOVING IN.
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO PA ON TUE...STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
WENT WITH A DRY DAY ON WED...WITH COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN INCOMING BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH MDT AND LNS BY 13Z. THIS LINE WILL
EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINE IS MOVING
THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR BRIEFLY BETTER CONDITIONS. THE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR IFR CIGS AT BFD...WITH THE
REST OF THE TAF POINTS HAVING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
EXPECT THIS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REDUCE CONDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE IMPACTS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING..BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD BY
TONIGHT. EXPECT DAYTIME GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 25KTS FROM THE
WEST.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...LARGE IMPACTS FROM STRONG TSTMS AND WIND SHEAR LIKELY.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS CONTINUE. REDUCTIONS ALL AREAS THU AFT-
EVE...THEN WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS NW HALF THU NIGHT.
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
749 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
The rest of the work week will be cooler than normal with the
threat of showers. Today will likely be the most active day for
showers and thunderstorms as an area of low pressure tracks slowly
over the region. Drier and warmer weather can be anticipated by
this weekend...with more unsettled conditions returning early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Forecast area on the north side of the jet stream today and
tonight and under the influence of a cool/cold conditionally
unstable trof. This mornings 12Z KOTX sounding shows how this is
just the case as the sounding shows fairly steep lapse rates
approaching 8 deg C/KM aloft coupled with a trop that is squished
down/lowered to near 380mb or so. So for now the bulk of the
dynamics associated with the jet stream along the periphery of the
low will keep convection going (including thunderstorms in various
shape/form...regardless of time of day) while in the center of the
low where we are it is likely to be more surface based type
convective showers with a number of the past and recent HRRR model
runs depicting just such a scenario (surface based orographic
convection) starting after 18Z. Storm motion should be quite
slow...5 mph or less and from all sorts of directions due to the
position of this upper level low almost directly overhead. Minimal
changes expected to be made to the forecast this morning. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper low moves over the Inland Northwest today,
before shifting east tonight. This feature and the increasing
instability through the afternoon will bring scattered showers and
a threat of thunderstorms around most TAF sites. Chances will be
best between 18Z-03Z. Primarily VFR conditions are expected but
local MVFR cigs/vis are possible in heavier showers. In addition
some locally breezy conditions are expected, especially later this
afternoon near the Cascades. The threat of showers will wane after
dark tonight and shift eastward. There is some threat of local
stratus or patchy fog developing toward Friday morning, around the
higher Palouse, including near KPUW and possibly as far north as
the KGEG-KCOE corridor. Confidence is low. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 46 68 47 76 53 / 30 30 10 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 66 45 67 44 75 48 / 40 40 30 20 10 10
Pullman 65 42 67 43 77 48 / 20 30 20 10 10 10
Lewiston 71 49 75 49 85 54 / 30 30 10 10 0 0
Colville 71 45 73 45 81 50 / 50 50 40 10 10 10
Sandpoint 65 43 65 41 75 44 / 50 50 50 20 10 10
Kellogg 60 44 63 44 72 51 / 50 50 30 20 10 10
Moses Lake 74 48 77 49 84 57 / 20 20 10 0 0 10
Wenatchee 72 52 75 54 84 61 / 20 10 0 10 0 10
Omak 72 47 75 48 82 53 / 30 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
W-E ORIENTED CDFNT WAS SITUATED ACRS CNTRL AR AT MID AFTN. DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S HAVE POOLED IN THE VCNTY OF THE BNDRY...
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. HAVE SEEN A
FEW WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVR ERN AR. THE RUC AND HRRR MODELS CONT TO
INDCD ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DVLPG ALONG THE FNT OVR CNTRL/SERN AR LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THUS...WL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PER
GOING FCST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT TO THE SW OF THE
AREA BY FRI AS A WEAK SFC RDG BLDS INTO AR. THE BNDRY WL MEANDER IN
THE VCNTY OF WRN AR HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OF A STRAY
SHRA/TSRA FRI AND SAT ALONG WITH WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RDG...BUT
WL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE. E/NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL
BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MUCH OF THE FA.
THE SFC HIGH WL WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUN/SUN NGT FOR A RETURN OF SLY
WINDS...ALONG WITH INCRSG LOW LVL RH. MEANWHILE...THE UPR LVL FLOW
WL FLATTEN TO ALLOW A NEW CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE N...ALONG WITH A
BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WL CONT INTO THE LONG
TERM PD.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE STATE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF MOVING THIS FRONT FURTHER INTO THE STATE
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES DWINDLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH...
WHILE NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL HAVE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 40-45 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS VICINITY OF HANNAGAN MEADOW AT 2130Z. THE REST
OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. OTHER STRONGER
PRECIP ECHOES WERE JUST EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA IN SW NEW MEXICO.
THE 13/18Z RUC HRRR APPEARED TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT START OF THE CYCLE
REGARDING THE ONGOING PRECIP. SHOWERS/TSTMS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF FAR ERN COCHISE COUNTY. THEREAFTER...OUTFLOW
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IN SW NEW MEXICO MAY GENERATE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL AND MOVE INTO SE
COCHISE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO END BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD ONLY
BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
EXPECT SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FRI VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY EAST OF A HANNAGAN MEADOW-SIERRA VISTA LINE
FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP SAT.
THE 13/12Z GFS WAS MARKEDLY MORE MOIST VERSUS THE 13/12Z ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED AN UPWARD TREND IN PROGGED MOISTURE EXHIBITED
VIA THE ECMWF VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE BROUGHT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT EVENING AS
FAR WEST AS THE CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS JUST EAST OF TUCSON. FOR
NOW HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS FROM TUCSON WWD.
BY SUN...GFS/ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ADVECTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THUS...ONLY SINGLE
DIGIT POPS SUN ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES WITH ZERO
POPS FROM TUCSON WWD. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THEN
OCCUR MON-THUR AS WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. HAVE NOTED THAT THE
ECMWF WAS DEEPER WITH THE WRN CONUS TROUGH VERSUS THE GFS. IF
REALITY...THE TIGHTER MID-LEVEL GRADIENT MAY LEAD TO BREEZY
AFTERNOONS WED-THUR.
HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME
TEMPS SAT-THUR...WITH HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF A
KSAD-KFHU LINE THRU 14/03Z. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS MAY OCCUR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FT AGL WILL
PREVAIL THRU FRIDAY MORNING OR 14/18Z. SURFACE WIND WLY/NWLY AT
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THRU 14/03Z...THEN SURFACE WIND
LESS THAN 10 KTS TIL 14/16Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING EAST OF A KSAD-KFHU LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE THREE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA (GREENLEE...GRAHAM
AND COCHISE) THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUING FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG
SOLAR HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DISCUSSION...BF
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
950 AM MST THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE AZ VALID 13/16Z
RANGED FROM THE MID 30S-UPPER 40S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY
10-20 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 13/12Z KTWC SOUNDING ALSO
DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH TOTAL
PRECIP WATER NEAR 0.80 INCH. SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE REGIME WITH LIFTED
INDEX OF MINUS 1.
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO DEPICT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY BASED ON THE 13/12Z NAM/GFS AND 13/13Z RUC HRRR. HAVE NOTED
THAT THE RUC PRODUCED PRECIP ECHOES AS FAR WEST AS THE HUACHUCA MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WWD THIS AFTERNOON
THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES.
OTHERWISE...WEAK UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS
BIG BEND WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY. UPPER LOW WILL THEN
MOVE NWD INTO WEST TEXAS BY SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA THRU AT LEAST
FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
AS WELL AS THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY.
QUICK GLANCE AT THE 13/12Z GFS SUGGESTS THE NEED FOR INCREASED POPS
ACROSS ERN COCHISE COUNTY FOR SAT. WILL ADDRESS THIS NOTION FURTHER
IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. THEREAFTER...A SWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SUN-WED. THUS...FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS TODAY THRU
FRI. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 3-5 DEGS F ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF A KSAD-
KFHU LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE
12K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL THRU FRIDAY MORNING OR 14/18Z. SURFACE WIND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY AND FRIDAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE DRY SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
BF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
209 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASSES
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A ITS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES NOW ENTERING WESTERN NY/PA...AND IS BEGINNING TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST. LOWEST PRES FALLS OVER THE LAST 3 HR IS OVER SE
PA...SO THE LOW IS ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE DELMARVA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AN AREA OF DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL TAPER DOWN POP/QPF FORECAST. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE LOW...SFC TEMPS WOULD THEN WARM UP...
ALLOWING CAPE VALUES TO RISE. THINK PRECIP WILL FILL IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5
TROUGH/VORT MAX IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WV/KY.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THIS EVENING...AND PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF
AN H5 TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST COAST...WILL SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/H5 VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO THE EAST COAST. LATEST NAM KEEPS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIP SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
EXPECTING REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...BUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST
HOW HEAVY THE QPF WILL BE. LATEST RFC AND HPC QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A
LOWERING TREND...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES GENERALLY LOWERED TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE CWA. COULD HAVE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON TRAINING
OF CELLS THIS EVENING...BUT PRECIP HAS NOT BEEN AS INTENSE AS
EXPECTED...AND FLOODING HAS NOT DEVELOPED.
WINDS STILL REMAIN A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. THE AREA
IS BASICALLY LOOKING AT TWO TIME PERIODS WITH STRONGER
WINDS...WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRAVELS
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LI
AND COASTAL REGIONS OF CT...AND THERE MAY STILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WINDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRING/COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS...BUT SUB WIND
ADVISORY SUSTAINED AND GUSTS. THE WINDS HIT THEIR PEAK AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY ON FRI RAIN WILL TAPER FROM W TO E. A WEAK
COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WITH CHC POPS
LINGERING OVER WESTERN ZONES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
BE MINIMAL AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
TO THE S. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND
THICKENING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
THEN NORTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A GOOD
DEAL OF MODEL DIVERGENCE AS THE 00Z ECMWF PHASES A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...PRIMING THE
AREA FOR ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
12Z GFS DOES NOT REALLY PHASE THE 2 SYSTEMS UNTIL AFTER THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z GEM ALSO KEEPS THE 2
SYSTEMS SEPARATE...BUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS DEEPER THAN THE
OTHER 2 MODELS...AND THEREFORE HAS A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE AREA DRIES OUT
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT WX EVENT LOOKING TO HAVE LESS SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACT
THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. E-SE FLOW STILL GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
INVOF NYC METRO AND 20-25 MOST ELSEWHERE SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK A LITTLE MORE E...WITH MVFR CIGS MOST
PLACES. STILL EXPECTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK NE...WHICH COULD
IMPACT THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC METRO TERMINALS FROM 22Z-
01Z THIS EVENING... AND AN HR OR TWO LATER FARTHER EAST. EXPECTING
CONTINUED MVFR CONDS WITH THESE SHOWERS...MAYBE BRIEF IFR CONDS
AND SOME ISOLD RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
MVFR CONDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING N FLOW.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECTED AT
MOST TERMINALS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. BRIEF IFR VSBY AND/OR AN ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE SOME TIME
BETWEEN 22Z-01Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. BRIEF IFR VSBY AND/OR AN ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE SOME TIME
BETWEEN 22Z-01Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. BRIEF IFR VSBY AND/OR AN ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE SOME TIME
BETWEEN 22Z-01Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. BRIEF IFR VSBY AND/OR AN ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE SOME TIME
BETWEEN 22Z-01Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR VSBY AND/OR AN ISOLD TSTM
POSSIBLE SOME TIME BETWEEN 22Z-01Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR VSBY AND/OR AN ISOLD TSTM
POSSIBLE SOME TIME BETWEEN 23Z-02Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI...VFR. DIMINISHING N WINDS.
.SAT-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MON...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
COULD BRING SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS COULD BRING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT GENERALLY SCA CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS BY THIS AFTN AS GUSTS REACH 25 KT...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
HOVER AROUND 5 FT. BY TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW PASSING JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...EXPECTING GALES ON ALL WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY TO REFLECT THE
GROWING CONFIDENCE OF THE GALES OCCURRING. WHILE THE WARNING BEGINS
THIS EVENING...THE LATEST TRACK OF THE LOW SUGGESTS THAT THE BETTER
CHC FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS THEN AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE
FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...BRINGING IN SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS BY FRI AFTN...AND SUB-SCA WINDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LINGERING
SEAS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SCA CONDITIONS
THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DUAL POL STORM TOTAL ACCUM GENERALLY INDICATING 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NJ...NYC...LOWR HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CT WITH LESS THAN 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY WEATHER
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER BEFORE THE NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND
OF PRECIP THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER STORM TOTAL QPF FORECAST TO 1.5
TO 2 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN ANY CONVECTION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL FOR THIS EVENT. AS
WE ARE BETWEEN A NEW AND FULL MOON...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 2
FT BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN ABOUT 1
FT OF SURGE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE
STEVENS GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND LONG
ISLAND SOUND SITES UP CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. HOWEVER...IT
MAY BE INCORPORATING STRONGER WINDS THAN FORECAST. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WITHHOLD FROM ISSUING ANY COASTAL FLOODING PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME AND STAY WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECASTS FOR THE
TIDAL SITES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-
176>179.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>071.
NJ... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
110 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASSES
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A ITS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES NOW ENTERING WESTERN NY/PA...AND IS BEGINNING TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST. LOWEST PRES FALLS OVER THE LAST 3 HR IS OVER SE
PA...SO THE LOW IS ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE DELMARVA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AN AREA OF DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL TAPER DOWN POP/QPF FORECAST. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE LOW...SFC TEMPS WOULD THEN WARM UP...
ALLOWING CAPE VALUES TO RISE. THINK PRECIP WILL FILL IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5
TROUGH/VORT MAX IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WV/KY.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THIS EVENING...AND PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF
AN H5 TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EAST COAST...WILL SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/H5 VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO THE EAST COAST. LATEST NAM KEEPS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIP SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
EXPECTING REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...BUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST
HOW HEAVY THE QPF WILL BE. LATEST RFC AND HPC QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A
LOWERING TREND...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT.
STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES GENERALLY LOWERED TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE CWA. COULD HAVE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON TRAINING
OF CELLS THIS EVENING...BUT PRECIP HAS NOT BEEN AS INTENSE AS
EXPECTED...AND FLOODING HAS NOT DEVELOPED.
WINDS STILL REMAIN A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. THE AREA
IS BASICALLY LOOKING AT TWO TIME PERIODS WITH STRONGER
WINDS...WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRAVELS
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LI
AND COASTAL REGIONS OF CT...AND THERE MAY STILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WINDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRING/COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS...BUT SUB WIND
ADVISORY SUSTAINED AND GUSTS. THE WINDS HIT THEIR PEAK AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY ON FRI RAIN WILL TAPER FROM W TO E. A WEAK
COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WITH CHC POPS
LINGERING OVER WESTERN ZONES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
BE MINIMAL AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
TO THE S. TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND
THICKENING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
THEN NORTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A GOOD
DEAL OF MODEL DIVERGENCE AS THE 00Z ECMWF PHASES A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...PRIMING THE
AREA FOR ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
12Z GFS DOES NOT REALLY PHASE THE 2 SYSTEMS UNTIL AFTER THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z GEM ALSO KEEPS THE 2
SYSTEMS SEPARATE...BUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS DEEPER THAN THE
OTHER 2 MODELS...AND THEREFORE HAS A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE AREA DRIES OUT
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WEATHER EVENT FORECAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY...
RAIN NOW STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS. VFR TO START...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER THE MORNING PUSH. TAFS
MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO BRINGING THE IFR CONDITIONS IN TOO
SOON. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES FROM LATE MORNING ON. ALSO...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FROM LATE MORNING ON IS
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT STILL TO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SPEED. SUSTAINED/GUSTS MAY BE MORE
OCCASIONAL. SPEEDS COULD BE AT LEAST ANOTHER 5 KT STRONGER THAN WHAT
IS IN THE FORECAST.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES. GUST MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES. GUST MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES. GUST MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES. GUST MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES. GUST MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES. GUST MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...CHC SHRA AND SUB-VFR EARLY. VFR PROBABLE BY NOON. NORTH GUSTS
20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT GENERALLY SCA CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS BY THIS AFTN AS GUSTS REACH 25 KTS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS
HOVER AROUND 5 FT. BY TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW PASSING JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...EXPECTING GALES ON ALL WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY TO REFLECT THE
GROWING CONFIDENCE OF THE GALES OCCURRING. WHILE THE WARNING BEGINS
THIS EVENING...THE LATEST TRACK OF THE LOW SUGGESTS THAT THE BETTER
CHC FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS THEN AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE
FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST...BRINGING IN SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS BY FRI AFTN...AND SUB-SCA WINDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LINGERING
SEAS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SCA CONDITIONS
THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DUAL POL STORM TOTAL ACCUM GENERALLY INDICATING 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NJ...NYC...LOWR HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CT WITH LESS THAN 1/2 INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY WEATHER
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER BEFORE THE NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND
OF PRECIP THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER STORM TOTAL QPF FORECAST TO 1.5
TO 2 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN ANY CONVECTION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL FOR THIS EVENT. AS
WE ARE BETWEEN A NEW AND FULL MOON...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 2
FT BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN ABOUT 1
FT OF SURGE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE
STEVENS GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND LONG
ISLAND SOUND SITES UP CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. HOWEVER...IT
MAY BE INCORPORATING STRONGER WINDS THAN FORECASTED. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WITHHOLD FROM ISSUING ANY COASTAL FLOODING PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME AND STAY WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECASTS FOR THE
TIDAL SITES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-
176>179.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>071.
NJ... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC/GOODMAN
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
121 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER HAS ITS SIGHTS SET ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN SPOTS TODAY...BEFORE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS OR
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY...WITH A FEW
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WON`T LAST TOO LONG
THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN RETURNS WITH SEASONABLE BUT DRY
WEATHER TOWARD MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A CU FIELD IN
NE LOWER, A STRATUS DECK IN NW LOWER AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SC
DECK IN E UPPER. UPSTREAM, IN LAKE SUPERIOR, AND NORTH, THE CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MIX OUT ALONG THE EDGE, WHICH IS GOING ALONG WITH
THE MODEL IDEA. SO UPPED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN N LOWER AS THE CU
FIELD INCREASES. IN E UPPER THE CLOUD MASS SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE DRY AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS
ABOUT THROUGH, SO THAT THE SUBSIDENCE WILL ADD TO THE DRYING.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
STRATUS CLOUDS IN C AND E UPPER THIS MORNING ARE BEGINNING TO MIX
OUT, AS THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO CU OR SC. THIS
SAME POOL OF MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO NW LOWER WITH STRATUS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE FROM NEAR CVX TO
FKS. THIS TOO IS EXPECTED TO THIN AND TRANSITION TO CU. MAIN
CONCERN IS THE CLOUD MASS IN ONTARIO NORTH OF ANJ. MODELS HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING LIGHT RAIN, IN NE LOWER. THIS SEEMS GOOD WITH
DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED IN CYLD. THIS CLOUD MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AND THE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MIX
OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION LEAVING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. BUT...LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS)
STARTING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE U.P. AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE.
MODEL RH FORECASTS SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND
DOWN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE OFFSET BY HEATING/MIXING. HAVE
TWEAKED SKY FORECASTS TO REFLECT SUNNIER START TO THE DAY THEN
TRENDING CLOUDIER LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
MCS/SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING...SPURRED ON BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ADVANCING THROUGH
THE REGION. NRN EDGE OF MCS RAIN SHIELD JUST SKIRTING THE SRN TIER
OF COUNTIES...PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. TO THE NORTH...ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE NOTED OVER ONTARIO DROPPING S/SE TOWARD THE STATE. SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE.
TODAY...SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH WILL ROTATE DOWN THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING VARYING CLOUD COVER. LOWER HEIGHTS/COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING BRINGS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND
A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP PER INHERITED FORECAST. UNMODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DOES REVEAL ONE TO TWO HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL SFC DEWPOINTS LOOK A BIT OVERDONE.
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING MOS GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F
REDUCES MLCAPE VALUES TO NEARLY NOTHING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...VERY
TEMPTED TO PULL POPS. BUT...GIVEN THAT THERE ARE SHOWERS UPSTREAM
WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY...AND ALL GUIDANCE PRODUCES SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...WILL KEEP CHANCY POPS INTACT.
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING WITH
DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. MAY GET
RATHER COOL...BUT WE DO KEEP A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. HAVE
NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPS UPWARD A COUPLE DEGREES...UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S. COLDER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
LIKE COOLER TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY? WE GOT THAT COVERED! ALSO LIKE
WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID (I.E. MORE JUNE-LIKE) WEATHER? WE ALSO
HAVE THAT COVERED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH A RATHER CHANGEABLE
PERIOD OF WEATHER SET TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS AS WE ROLL
THROUGH MID MONTH. THIS IS NOT UNLIKE THE PAST MONTH OR SO...WHICH
HAS SEEN SIMILAR UP AND DOWN WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
CULPRIT THIS TIME BEING A RATHER STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC SETUP
FEATURING ANCHOR TROUGHING NEAR THE BERING SEA/NORTH PACIFIC AND
ALSO INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO PLACE NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE PRECARIOUS POSITION OF BEING NEAR BOTH UPPER RIDGING
(BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST) AND UPPER TROUGHING (BUILDING
THROUGH CANADA)...HENCE THE BIG SWINGS WE HAVE SEEN FROM TIME TO
TIME THE PAST 3-4 WEEKS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS...AS INITIAL
UPPER TROUGHING INTO LATE WEEK IS BRIEFLY REPLACED BY BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT SETUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...
AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RENEWED
TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST HELPS PUMP SUMMERTIME
RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS TO
FALL THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...REALLY NO WEATHER OF NOTE FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO A POSITION OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SETUP WILL
DELIVER COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDS (MAYBE A LITTLE CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON?). LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK CHILLY...WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE
40S EVERYWHERE...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 30S FOR INLAND AREAS AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DIURNAL MIXING KICKS DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE
28-34F RANGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE SOME FROST FOR
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN
THE RULE...SO NO HWO MENTION JUST YET.
CLOUDS LOOK TO THICKEN ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT KICKS INTO GEAR OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. AN AXIS OF MUCH
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ALSO PROGGED TO WORK THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES ROUGHLY 18-00Z...SUPPORTING THE NOTION OF SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION (EFFECTIVE CAPE VALUES PERHAPS UP TO 300 J/KG)
PERHAPS TRYING TO WORK THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER 21Z.
HOWEVER...RATHER DRY SUB-700MB LAYER AND BEST LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING/THETA-E RIDGING POINTING TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY ACTUALLY SURVIVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AXIS SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS VERY LOW...AND HONESTLY CAN
FORESEE MUCH OF THE DAY (IF NOT ALL OF IT) BEING DRY. ALSO STARTING
TO GET THE FEELING THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS LATER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. AFTER THAT...BACK TO
DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (MAYBE NEXT
THURSDAY TOO) AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDS FROM CENTRAL
CANADA DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT APN, EXPECT THAT
THE WIND COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT PLN, THE CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT IN A FEW
HOURS, SO THAT WE EITHER GO SCT, OR A CIG THAT IS VFR. AT TVC AND
MBL, THE STRATUS DECK IS HANGING TOUGH. MORE MOISTURE IS UPSTREAM,
AND PROBABLY WON`T START TO DIMINISH THE CLOUD DECK UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SO EXPECT TREND FOR THE CLOUDS
TO GO FROM IFR TO MVFR, AND THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD,
ONCE THE SKY CLEARS OUT TONIGHT, THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON THE LAKES TODAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ANTICIPATED...JUST SHY OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
LOTS OF STRONG TSRA AND LIGHTNING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW/WARM FRONT CROSSING THAT AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...WV LOOP
INDICATES NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGHING CLOSE BY OVER ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. MAIN WAVE WITHIN THAT TROUGH IS SLIDING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY
BUT ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS JUST TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
AS OF 05Z. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO QUEBEC EXPECT THE SFC-H85
TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS UPR LAKES THIS MORNING. SFC TEMPS IMMEDIATELY
IN WAKE OF TROUGH IN ONTARIO NOT TOO DIFFERENT THAN CURRENT READINGS
OVER UPR MICHIGAN. COOLING AT 925-850MB IS SEEN THOUGH WITH H85
TEMPS DOWN TO +8C AT CWPL WHILE READINGS AT MPX/GRB AND APX WERE
AROUND +13C. SIMILAR COOLING AT 925MB WITH +20C AT APX FALLING OFF
TO +10C AT CWPL AND +13C AT CWZC /MOOSONEE ONTARIO AT SOUTH SHORE OF
JAMES BAY/. AT 00Z...ONLY UPSTREAM SOUNDING THAT SHOWED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS CWZC AND NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE OBS
IN ONTARIO ARE SHOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS THUS FAR...THOUGH
07Z IMAGERY INDICATES LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STARTING TO FORM OVR HURON
MOUNTAINS. MODELS COMPARED WELL TO EACH OTHER INITIALIZING SFC
THROUGH H5 FEATURES UPSTREAM. NAM INITIALIZED SOUNDINGS AT CWPL AND
CWZC WELL. WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND RUC13 FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECASTS FOR TODAY OVR CWA.
FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT...ENCOURAGED TO SEE LOWER CLOUDS
STARTING TO FORM. THINK IDEA OF BKN LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING STILL
ON TRACK...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. HAVE
STRUGGLED ON WHAT TO DO WITH DRIZZLE CHANCES. WAS GOING TO PULL
MENTION BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED LINGERING DRYING BENEATH
HIGHER MOISTURE 950-900MB. ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION IN FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY AS T/TD DEPRESSION AT STDM4
HAS STEADILY NARROWED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THINK THIS MOISTENING
COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW COULD STILL RESULT IN LGT DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES. DRIZZLE WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING. ONCE CLOUDS
SET UP...THINK THEY MAY STUBBORN TO LEAVE AS THERMAL TROUGHING FM
925-850MB PERSISTS ALONG WITH A CYCLONIC CONVERGENT NNE FLOW
925-850MB. KEPT BKN CLOUDS IN THROUGH EARLY AFTN WITH SCT CLOUDS
CLOUDS STAYING AROUND THROUGH MID AFTN IN THOSE UPSLOPE AREAS.
EVEN AWAY FM FAVORED AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...THERMAL TROUGHING AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ACT TO INCREASE CU FOR A WHILE BEFORE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATE TODAY. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING OF SKIES
LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHARP 925-850MB DRYING WITH
DWPNT DEPRESSIONS OVER 15C SURGES INTO THE REGION FROM ONTARIO.
ONE ITEM TO NOTE ABOUT TODAY. A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS IN PLACE FOR
SHORELINES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES AS WAVES BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET. LOWERING WAVES WILL LESSEN THE SWIM RISK BY THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...A COOL NIGHT IN STORE DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA DROPS
ACROSS REGION. WINDS FCST TO BECOME CALM OVER INTERIOR WEST CWA
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPR 30S...MAYBE EVEN MID
30S. CURRENT READINGS BENEATH THE HIGH IN MANITOBA HAVE ALREADY INTO
UPR 30S AS OF 07Z. KEPT THE FROST MENTION FOR INTERIOR WEST...BUT IT
REMAINS TOO ISOLD TO MENTION IN THE HWO OR SFP.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
FRI...HI PRES IS FCST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE E HALF OF LK SUP ON
FRI AFTN TO THE E OF UPR RDG AXIS EXTENDING FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SCENTRAL CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF
CLOSED LO OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES JUST N OF THE BORDER. ALTHOUGH
SOME HI CLDS IN THE DVLPG SLY FLOW/WAD PATTERN BTWN THE HI AND LOWER
PRES TO THE W MAY DRIFT INTO THE WRN COUNTIES IN THE AFTN...THE DAY
SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH LLVL DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 11-12C RANGE AND MIXING TO H8 ON FCST
SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. THE DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WL
CAUSE SFC DEWPTS TO FALL INTO THE 20S IN THE AFTN OVER THE
INTERIOR...WITH MIN RH AS LO AS 20 PCT OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE CORE
OF DRIEST AIR. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WL BE LGT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
FOCUS FOR FRI NGT THRU THE WEEKEND WL THEN SHIFT TO PCPN CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES RETREATING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND CLOSED LO THAT DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY E ACRS SRN
CANADA AND TOWARD THE UPR LKS BY LATE SUN. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME DEEP LYR ISENTROPIC ASCENT DVLPG ON FRI NGT
WITH BAND OF HIER MID LVL RH MOVING IN FM THE W. BUT GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ANTECENT AIRMASS...TENDENCY FOR MOST IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNGVC TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NW CLOSER TO THE LO ALLOWING
A MORE PERSISTENT UPR RDG AXIS OVER THE UPR LKS...AND PRESENCE OF
WARM FNT IN IOWA/ILLINOIS THAT WL INTERCEPT THE BULK OF RETURNING
LLVL MSTR...TRIMMED BACK THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE FRI NGT POPS SHOWN
IN PREVIOUS FCST TO MORE ALIGN WITH 00Z NAM/GFS/CNDN FCSTS. MIN
TEMPS ON FRI NGT SHOULD BE COOLEST OVER THE E CLOSER TO RETREATING
HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR.
SAT/SAT NGT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...SGNFT MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION
OF BAND OF HIER MID LVL RH ALIGNED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
AHEAD OF SHRTWV MOVING E THRU SW ONTARIO WELL IN ADVANCE OF SLOWER
CLOSED LO IN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS BAND OF HIER RH IS FCST TO DRIFT E
ACRS UPR MI FOLLOWED BY MID LVL DRYING IN THE JET SURGE REGION ON
THE SRN FLANK OF THE SHRTWV MOVING THRU SW ONTARIO. THE 00Z GFS IS
THEN MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DVLPG MORE SHRA/TS OVER THE W IN THE AFTN
WITH SHRTWV INTERACTING WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY ALLOWED BY CLRG
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MSTR AXIS. THE GFS THEN MOVES THESE
SHRA/TS E ACRS THE CWA ON SAT NGT. THE 00Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL JET SURGE DRYING...WITH FCST SDNGS
SHOWING EFFECTIVE MID LVL CAPPING AND ALMOST NO PCPN. PREFER THE
COMPROMISE 00Z CNDN MODEL HANDLING OF THE POPS GIVEN BETTER
PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES RELATIVE TO CLOSED LO LINGERING BACK W OF
LK WINNIPEG THRU 12Z SUN...WITH LESS AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING THAN
THE NAM AND LESS DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR INSTABILITY SHRA/TS OVER THE W
THAN SHOWN BY THE GFS LATE SAT AFTN/NGT. BUT PASSAGE OF THIS WEAKER
SHRTWV STILL WARRANTS CHC POPS ON SAT NGT AS INDICATED BY THE CNDN
MODEL.
SUN...THERE IS A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHRTWV RDG BTWN DEPARTING
WEAK SHRTWV TO THE E AND SLOWLY APRCHG CLOSED LO FCST TO OPEN AND
APRCH NW MN LATE IN THE DAY WL BE AN INFLUENCE ON UPR MI WX. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WX OVER THE CWA ON SUN. SO LOWERED MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS A BIT TO REFLECT THE MID LVL DRYING FCST/LACK OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WHICH IS FCST TO ARRIVE ONLY LATER IN THE DAY OVER
THE W CLOSER TO APRCHG SHRTWV.
SUN NGT/MON... BEST CHC FOR SHRA/SOME TS LOOKS TO BE ON SUN NGT INTO
MON WHEN DPVA/FAIRLY VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/HGT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV FM THE WNW IMPACT THE CWA. MODEL
CONSENSUS HI CHC POPS APPEAR ON THE RIGHT TRACK.
EXTENDED...A DRIER NW FLOW ALF IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV
SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WX TO THE UPR LKS ON TUE AND WED. ONLY
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE A STRONGER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW...WHICH COMMONLY BRING SOME SHRA/TS TO THE AREA IN THE
SUMMER IF THERE IS ENUF MSTR/INSTABILITY. BUT NOTHING HIER THAN SCHC
POPS ARE WARRANTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY REACH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR HAS ALREADY BE OBSERVED
SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE SET OF MVFR
CLOUDS OVER CMX TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. KSAW WILL
TAKE THE LONGEST TO CLEAR OUT...BUT SHOULD BE SKC BY 00Z TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST MOVES TO THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. A QUIET DAY IS IN STORE TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...AND WINDS LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
N WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS TODAY...HIGHEST OVER THE E PART OF THE
LAKE...UNDER A SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
BUILDING HI PRES IN ONTARIO WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HI MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THEN A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER STABILITY WILL CAUSE WINDS UNDER 15
KTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
103 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER HAS ITS SIGHTS SET ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN SPOTS TODAY...BEFORE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS OR
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY...WITH A FEW
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WON`T LAST TOO LONG
THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN RETURNS WITH SEASONABLE BUT DRY
WEATHER TOWARD MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A CU FIELD IN
NE LOWER, A STRATUS DECK IN NW LOWER AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SC
DECK IN E UPPER. UPSTREAM, IN LAKE SUPERIOR, AND NORTH, THE CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MIX OUT ALONG THE EDGE, WHICH IS GOING ALONG WITH
THE MODEL IDEA. SO UPPED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN N LOWER AS THE CU
FIELD INCREASES. IN E UPPER THE CLOUD MASS SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE DRY AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS
ABOUT THROUGH, SO THAT THE SUBSIDENCE WILL ADD TO THE DRYING.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
STRATUS CLOUDS IN C AND E UPPER THIS MORNING ARE BEGINNING TO MIX
OUT, AS THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO CU OR SC. THIS
SAME POOL OF MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO NW LOWER WITH STRATUS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE FROM NEAR CVX TO
FKS. THIS TOO IS EXPECTED TO THIN AND TRANSITION TO CU. MAIN
CONCERN IS THE CLOUD MASS IN ONTARIO NORTH OF ANJ. MODELS HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING LIGHT RAIN, IN NE LOWER. THIS SEEMS GOOD WITH
DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED IN CYLD. THIS CLOUD MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AND THE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MIX
OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION LEAVING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. BUT...LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS)
STARTING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE U.P. AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE.
MODEL RH FORECASTS SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND
DOWN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE OFFSET BY HEATING/MIXING. HAVE
TWEAKED SKY FORECASTS TO REFLECT SUNNIER START TO THE DAY THEN
TRENDING CLOUDIER LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
MCS/SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING...SPURRED ON BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ADVANCING THROUGH
THE REGION. NRN EDGE OF MCS RAIN SHIELD JUST SKIRTING THE SRN TIER
OF COUNTIES...PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. TO THE NORTH...ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE NOTED OVER ONTARIO DROPPING S/SE TOWARD THE STATE. SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE.
TODAY...SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH WILL ROTATE DOWN THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING VARYING CLOUD COVER. LOWER HEIGHTS/COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING BRINGS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND
A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP PER INHERITED FORECAST. UNMODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DOES REVEAL ONE TO TWO HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL SFC DEWPOINTS LOOK A BIT OVERDONE.
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING MOS GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F
REDUCES MLCAPE VALUES TO NEARLY NOTHING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...VERY
TEMPTED TO PULL POPS. BUT...GIVEN THAT THERE ARE SHOWERS UPSTREAM
WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY...AND ALL GUIDANCE PRODUCES SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...WILL KEEP CHANCY POPS INTACT.
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING WITH
DRIER AIR/CLEARING SKIES TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. MAY GET
RATHER COOL...BUT WE DO KEEP A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. HAVE
NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPS UPWARD A COUPLE DEGREES...UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S. COLDER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
LIKE COOLER TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY? WE GOT THAT COVERED! ALSO LIKE
WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID (I.E. MORE JUNE-LIKE) WEATHER? WE ALSO
HAVE THAT COVERED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH A RATHER CHANGEABLE
PERIOD OF WEATHER SET TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS AS WE ROLL
THROUGH MID MONTH. THIS IS NOT UNLIKE THE PAST MONTH OR SO...WHICH
HAS SEEN SIMILAR UP AND DOWN WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
CULPRIT THIS TIME BEING A RATHER STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC SETUP
FEATURING ANCHOR TROUGHING NEAR THE BERING SEA/NORTH PACIFIC AND
ALSO INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO PLACE NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE PRECARIOUS POSITION OF BEING NEAR BOTH UPPER RIDGING
(BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST) AND UPPER TROUGHING (BUILDING
THROUGH CANADA)...HENCE THE BIG SWINGS WE HAVE SEEN FROM TIME TO
TIME THE PAST 3-4 WEEKS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS...AS INITIAL
UPPER TROUGHING INTO LATE WEEK IS BRIEFLY REPLACED BY BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT SETUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...
AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RENEWED
TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST HELPS PUMP SUMMERTIME
RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS TO
FALL THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...REALLY NO WEATHER OF NOTE FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO A POSITION OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SETUP WILL
DELIVER COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY CLOUDS (MAYBE A LITTLE CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON?). LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK CHILLY...WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE
40S EVERYWHERE...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 30S FOR INLAND AREAS AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DIURNAL MIXING KICKS DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE
28-34F RANGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE SOME FROST FOR
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN
THE RULE...SO NO HWO MENTION JUST YET.
CLOUDS LOOK TO THICKEN ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT KICKS INTO GEAR OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. AN AXIS OF MUCH
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ALSO PROGGED TO WORK THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES ROUGHLY 18-00Z...SUPPORTING THE NOTION OF SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION (EFFECTIVE CAPE VALUES PERHAPS UP TO 300 J/KG)
PERHAPS TRYING TO WORK THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER 21Z.
HOWEVER...RATHER DRY SUB-700MB LAYER AND BEST LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING/THETA-E RIDGING POINTING TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY ACTUALLY SURVIVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AXIS SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS VERY LOW...AND HONESTLY CAN
FORESEE MUCH OF THE DAY (IF NOT ALL OF IT) BEING DRY. ALSO STARTING
TO GET THE FEELING THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS LATER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. AFTER THAT...BACK TO
DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (MAYBE NEXT
THURSDAY TOO) AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDS FROM CENTRAL
CANADA DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY AT THE TERMINAL SITES. HOWEVER...LOWER
CLOUDS MAY EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATE DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SCT MVFR
CLOUDS FOR THE MOMENT. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
FELT AT THE TERMINAL SITES WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE
EXPECTED.
SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON THE LAKES TODAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ANTICIPATED...JUST SHY OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...INITIALLY PROBABLY ROOTED NEAR H6 PER
LBF/OAX 12Z SOUNDINGS...CONTINUED WORKING INTO FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET/INSTABILITY SUPPORT. THIS
HIGHLIGHTS UNCERTAINTIES THAT WILL EXIST IN FINE-TUNING
THUNDERSTORM CHCS AND TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IS THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/LATEST RAP FCST WOULD TAKE THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION OUT OF ERN ZONES BY AROUND 02Z WITH A PROBABLE PRECIP
LULL UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST APPROACHES OR
DEVELOPS INTO ZONES LATER TONIGHT. MADE SOME ATTEMPTS AT
ADJUSTING HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT RELUCTANT TO REMOVE OR LOWER TOMORROW MORNING
POPS VERY MUCH...ESPECIALLY CNTRL/NE ZONES AS 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND
12Z GFS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP QPF OVER THE NERN FA IN 12-18Z PD.
SINCE THIS AREA WILL BE ON NOSE OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN
NOTED BY STRONG H85 THETA E ADVECTION IN 12Z-15Z PERIOD PER
NAM...LEFT IN LIKELY MORNING POPS NERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A MIDDAY LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...THIS THETA ADVECTION INCREASES
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS CANNOT REALLY SAY WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION WILL COMPLETELY DIE OUT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY
AND WAS A FEW DAYS AGO AS WELL. SFC BASED DWPT RETURN PER NAM/GFS
PROBABLY TOO HIGH THUS SFC BASED CAPE FORECAST ALSO TOO HIGH
FRIDAY...BUT WITH BOUNDARY IN AREA AND UPPER WAVE LIFTING INTO
NERN MT...SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY EXIST. HOWEVER...
COVERAGE PROBABLY DICTATED BY EFFECTIVENESS OF CAP WHICH WILL BE
TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...ESPECIALLY SRN ZONES...OR DEBRIS
CLOUDS/PCPN FROM ANY MORNING ACTIVITY NE. AT THIS TIME MADE
LITTLE/NO CHANCES TO MAX TEMPS WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED ADJUSTING AS
AMOUNT OF DEBRIS BECOMES APPARENT.
WITH BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER AREA SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY...
AND CNTRL PLAINS CONTINUING ON SRN END OF WESTERLIES OF SRN
CANADIAN LOW...MODESTLY HIGH POPS WARRANTED INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
AGAIN WOULD GENERALLY THINK CENTROID OF MCS ACTIVITY ON SYNOPTIC
SCALE COULD SHIFT SOUTH EACH DAY THUS HIGHER CHCS WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT INTO SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH ERLY FLOW
SETTING UP SATURDAY BEHIND EXPECTED MCS TOMORROW NIGHT...LEANED
TOWARD COOLER NAM FOR MAX TEMPS. NO CHANGES TO SUNDAY MAX TEMPS AT
THIS TIME.
DRIER WEATHER STILL ON TAP MONDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY AS WELL AS
NWRLY FLOW SENDS HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH ERN PLAINS AND FORECAST WAS
MOSTLY DRY. AFTER THAT...RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING
TSTM RISK THRU END OF WEEK ALTHOUGH FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT MOST
POPS IN LOWER CHC RANGE.
CHERMOK
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES AND SHOULD EXIT BY 00Z TONIGHT.
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...THUS LEFT PROB30 GROUP IN
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
PEARSON
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...INCLUDING SEASONALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE PAC NW LEADING TO DECENT JET AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BASED ON EVENING UA ANALYSIS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS YIELDING ERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN KS AND NORTH OF THIS
FRONT SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS INDICATED DECREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ALOFT. COOLING CLOUD TOPS
INDICATED IN IR SAT PICS IN NERN CO AND NRN KS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE EXISTING
PRECIPITATION GRIDS...THE PLACEMENT OF WHICH WAS ON TRACK. REST OF
THE FCST LOOKS INGOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...THROUGH NOON TODAY...ISOLD SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST INITIALLY TO COVER ECHOES ON RADAR GENERATED
BY A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY SEEN EARLIER ON THE KFTG 88D. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND RAP SHORT
TERM FCSTS SHOW MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS A RESULT OF THE WAA AS MENTIONED. THEREFORE WILL
INCLUDE ISOLD SHRA MENTION IN SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...THOUGH THIS
WILL BE A LOW QPF /IF ANY AT ALL/ EVENT. MAY BE A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT LATEST INFO SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING CURRENTLY.
IN RESPONSE TO THE JET COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SFC
PRESSURES WILL LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THRU THE DAY
TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NEXT 24 HRS. SEVERAL SMALL PV
ANOMALIES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE QUICK FLOW AND WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD YIELD A FAVORABLE PATTERN OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT AS AN EML ADVECTS EASTWARD ATOP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LACKING IN THIS PATTERN WHICH WOULD MEAN THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST...AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUPPORTED BY THE FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODELS HAVE THIS
IDEA HANDLED FAIRLY WELL...HOWEVER AS EXPECTED FINE SCALE DETAIL
REMAIN A CHALLENGE. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
EVEN SMOKE FROM FIRES IN COLORADO COULD MAKE TEMP FCSTS A TRICK
TODAY BUT WILL BE COOLER IN THE SOUTHWEST THAN YDAY WARMER IN THE
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEB AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. STALLED SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM LOW OVER NW KS NORTHWARD TO A LOW OVER THE PLAINS OF CANADA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HIGHS...AS SEVERAL THINGS TO CONSIDER. WARM TEMPS
ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...MORE SUN AND WARM...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE WEST. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE TO THE
SOUTH...SEEING MORE INFLUENCE FOR THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE
RIDGE AND RECENT WARMER PERFORMANCE. MORE OF A MODEL BLEND ACROSS
THE NORTH. AS FOR THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...GOOD INSTABILITY
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME STRONG CAP. ISOLD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...THEN SHOULD PUSH NE DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAP MAY KEEP CELLS MORE
DISCRETE...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING MORE OF A COMPLEX AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION TO
PUSH SOUTH WITH IT. HOWEVER ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND
THE RIDGE...ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ALSO SEEING A
COUPLE OF WAVES RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ELEVATED
CONVECTION. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE QUESTIONABLE AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
UP IN THE LOWER 60S...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 50S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE RETROGRADES AND BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
WEST...PUSHING TO THE EAST...EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TEMPS STILL IN
THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WARMING AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD FOR MID WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S TO MID
90S...POSSIBLY WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CENTER AROUND THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
INCLUDED -TSRA IN THE KLBF TAF TONIGHT WITH MOST HI-RES MODELS
SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF TS OUT OF
THE KVTN TAF WHERE CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER ATTM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
247 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TODAY. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD A SOAKING RAIN INTO NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SMALL STREAM AND MINOR
RIVER FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST LATE TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
225 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUING ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS, NOW CONFIRMED BY RAP, WE HAVE
OPTED TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS SAVE FOR THE FAR
EASTERN FA. FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE BEST FROM OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTY
EASTWARD, BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAIN WILL
RAPIDLY CLOSE AFTER 22Z.
THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE WX TO WATCH FROM THIS POINT
FORTH MAY BE CONVECTION FIRING IN THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR
FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY EASTWARD. ANY STORMS WHICH FIRE WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS, THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER
VORTEX.
105 PM UPDATE...
LATEST RAP NOW SHOOTS THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS. WITH
THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE DROPPED THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE
FLOOD WATCH.
1205 PM UPDATE...
RAP REMAINS INSISTENT THAT AREA OF MODERATE PRECIP WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD CHENANGO AND DELAWARE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR, AND INTENSIFY OVER THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. MODELS
HAVE PERFORMED QUITE POORLY WITH BOTH THE QPF AND FRONTOGENESIS
FIELDS SO FAR, SO IT IS NATURAL TO HAVE A HEALTHY DOSE OF
SKEPTICISM. HOWEVER WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR/SAT TRENDS FOR
A SHIFT IN THE PRECIP AXIS.
WILL BE ASSESSING FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
945 AM UPDATE...
MORNING THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FA HAS
PASSED, SO WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR LUZERNE CO.
THIS MORNING...A GENERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS BEEN
OBSERVED TO THIS POINT, WITH AROUND A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH EXPECTED
TO HAVE ACCUMULATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DEVELOPED EARLIER AND WILL HAVE A LARGE EFFECT
ON OUR POPS/QPF THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS TRY TO
FILL IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM, IN ADVANCE OF 700MB
LOW AND RELATED FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF IT. MODEL PROJECTIONS WOULD
BRING THIS FAVORABLE AREA SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TWIN TIERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN FA FOR LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
WE ARE PLAYING THE 700MB LOW / FRONTOGENESIS AS THE AREA WHERE
PRECIP WILL INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TOTAL
STORM QPF VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN FA WHERE LOW HANGS UP
LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LITTLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LINGERS INTO MID AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY SEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH MODELS
GENERALLY INDICATING AROUND 400-800 J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES... WITH LESS TO THE EAST. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE WEST.
USED A MODEL BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES...
HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR 70 ON FRIDAY... INTO THE MID 70S ON
SATURDAY... AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS
INDICATED ON THE OVERALL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK... HOWEVER SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ARE SEEN. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS COULD LEAD TO A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED. THE LATEST GFS IS
SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH... LEADING TO A CHC
OF SHOWESR AND STORMS CONTINUING ON TUESDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH PASSES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY... BUT A LOWER CHANCE
THAN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND
LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL END THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY
MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE EAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY SHIFTING TO NORTH AT 10
KTS OR LESS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IMPRVNG TO VFR.
FRI NGT/SAT/SAT NGT...VFR BUT POTENTIAL VALLEY FOG SAT AM AT ELM.
SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POSSIBLE RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY INTO FRIDAY. 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND MAYBE MORE. STILL QUESTIONS ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAIN.
MOST MODELS HAVE IT IN THE SRN TIER TO CATSKILLS OF NY WHILE THE
EURO AND WPC IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. BOTH WAYS
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY AROUND AN INCH AND NOT IN THE FLOOD
WATCH. WITH HIGH PWATS AND TSTMS RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS. 2 INCHES WILL START TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS AND 3 AND MORE WILL BE WORSE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 3
PLUS SO RIVER FLOODING WILL ONLY BE MINOR. FOR NOW SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER AT VESTAL AND WAVERLY/SAYRE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MINOR
FLOODING. WALTON ON THE WEST BRANCH DELAWARE WILL GET CLOSE.
HEADWATERS AT CORTLAND AND SHERBURNE NOT IN THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS
BUT IF IT SETS UP 50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THESE POINTS WILL FLOOD.
FOR NOW RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED FRIDAY SO NO WARNINGS ISSUED UNTIL
RAIN COMES IN AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ045-046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
226 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TODAY. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD A SOAKING RAIN INTO NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SMALL STREAM AND MINOR
RIVER FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST LATE TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
225 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUING ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS, NOW CONFIRMED BY RAP, WE HAVE
OPTED TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS SAVE FOR THE FAR
EASTERN FA. FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE BEST FROM OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTY
EASTWARD, BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAIN WILL
RAPIDLY CLOSE AFTER 22Z.
THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE WX TO WATCH FROM THIS POINT
FORTH MAY BE CONVECTION FIRING IN THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR
FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY EASTWARD. ANY STORMS WHICH FIRE WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS, THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER
VORTEX.
105 PM UPDATE...
LATEST RAP NOW SHOOTS THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS. WITH
THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE DROPPED THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE
FLOOD WATCH.
1205 PM UPDATE...
RAP REMAINS INSISTENT THAT AREA OF MODERATE PRECIP WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD CHENANGO AND DELAWARE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR, AND INTENSIFY OVER THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. MODELS
HAVE PERFORMED QUITE POORLY WITH BOTH THE QPF AND FRONTOGENESIS
FIELDS SO FAR, SO IT IS NATURAL TO HAVE A HEALTHY DOSE OF
SKEPTICISM. HOWEVER WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR/SAT TRENDS FOR
A SHIFT IN THE PRECIP AXIS.
WILL BE ASSESSING FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
945 AM UPDATE...
MORNING THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FA HAS
PASSED, SO WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR LUZERNE CO.
THIS MORNING...A GENERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS BEEN
OBSERVED TO THIS POINT, WITH AROUND A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH EXPECTED
TO HAVE ACCUMULATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DEVELOPED EARLIER AND WILL HAVE A LARGE EFFECT
ON OUR POPS/QPF THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS TRY TO
FILL IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM, IN ADVANCE OF 700MB
LOW AND RELATED FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF IT. MODEL PROJECTIONS WOULD
BRING THIS FAVORABLE AREA SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TWIN TIERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN FA FOR LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
WE ARE PLAYING THE 700MB LOW / FRONTOGENESIS AS THE AREA WHERE
PRECIP WILL INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TOTAL
STORM QPF VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN FA WHERE LOW HANGS UP
LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM UPDATE...
SYSTEM PULLS MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HWVR, WITH
WATER STILL RUNNING OFF, CONCERN AFT THIS POINT WL BE HOW MUCH WL
LOCAL WATERWAYS RISE. IMMEDIATE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WL BE WINDING
DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS HEAVIEST PCPN COMES TO AN END.
ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS WL MV INTO AREA ON FRIDAY AS A SFC BNDRY
FOLLOWS IN FM CANADA IN ADVANCE OF 1020MB HIPRES BUILDING IN. WITH
TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LWR 70S AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT,
POTENTIAL WL EXIST FOR ISOLD THUNDER DRG THE AFTN.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FRI NGT BRINGING CLRNG SKIES AND TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S SATURDAY MRNG. AFN HIGHS ON SATURDAY PROGGED TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO APPCH AFT THE SHORT
TERM PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. UNSETTLED TO START
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SYSTEMS GOING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WED TO THU. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UTILIZED WPC MED RNG GUIDANCE. LTL CHG TO CRNT FCST WITH HI PRES
RDG MOVG OFF THE EAST CST SAT NGT. A SERIES OF S/WV`S EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
FCST UNTIL TUE...WHEN THE LAST OF THESE SYSTEMS IS XPCTD TO PASS.
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES FOLLOWS FOR NXT TUE NGT AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND
LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL END THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY
MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE EAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY SHIFTING TO NORTH AT 10
KTS OR LESS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IMPRVNG TO VFR.
FRI NGT/SAT/SAT NGT...VFR BUT POTENTIAL VALLEY FOG SAT AM AT ELM.
SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POSSIBLE RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY INTO FRIDAY. 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND MAYBE MORE. STILL QUESTIONS ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAIN.
MOST MODELS HAVE IT IN THE SRN TIER TO CATSKILLS OF NY WHILE THE
EURO AND WPC IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. BOTH WAYS
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY AROUND AN INCH AND NOT IN THE FLOOD
WATCH. WITH HIGH PWATS AND TSTMS RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS. 2 INCHES WILL START TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS AND 3 AND MORE WILL BE WORSE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 3
PLUS SO RIVER FLOODING WILL ONLY BE MINOR. FOR NOW SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER AT VESTAL AND WAVERLY/SAYRE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MINOR
FLOODING. WALTON ON THE WEST BRANCH DELAWARE WILL GET CLOSE.
HEADWATERS AT CORTLAND AND SHERBURNE NOT IN THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS
BUT IF IT SETS UP 50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THESE POINTS WILL FLOOD.
FOR NOW RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED FRIDAY SO NO WARNINGS ISSUED UNTIL
RAIN COMES IN AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ045-046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TODAY. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD A SOAKING RAIN INTO NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SMALL STREAM AND MINOR
RIVER FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST LATE TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
LATEST RAP NOW SHOOTS THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS. WITH
THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE DROPPED THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE
FLOOD WATCH.
1205 PM UPDATE...
RAP REMAINS INSISTENT THAT AREA OF MODERATE PRECIP WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD CHENANGO AND DELAWARE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR, AND INTENSIFY OVER THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. MODELS
HAVE PERFORMED QUITE POORLY WITH BOTH THE QPF AND FRONTOGENESIS
FIELDS SO FAR, SO IT IS NATURAL TO HAVE A HEALTHY DOSE OF
SKEPTICISM. HOWEVER WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR/SAT TRENDS FOR
A SHIFT IN THE PRECIP AXIS.
WILL BE ASSESSING FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
945 AM UPDATE...
MORNING THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FA HAS
PASSED, SO WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR LUZERNE CO.
THIS MORNING...A GENERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS BEEN
OBSERVED TO THIS POINT, WITH AROUND A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH EXPECTED
TO HAVE ACCUMULATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DEVELOPED EARLIER AND WILL HAVE A LARGE EFFECT
ON OUR POPS/QPF THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS TRY TO
FILL IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM, IN ADVANCE OF 700MB
LOW AND RELATED FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF IT. MODEL PROJECTIONS WOULD
BRING THIS FAVORABLE AREA SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TWIN TIERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN FA FOR LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
WE ARE PLAYING THE 700MB LOW / FRONTOGENESIS AS THE AREA WHERE
PRECIP WILL INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TOTAL
STORM QPF VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN FA WHERE LOW HANGS UP
LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM UPDATE...
SYSTEM PULLS MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HWVR, WITH
WATER STILL RUNNING OFF, CONCERN AFT THIS POINT WL BE HOW MUCH WL
LOCAL WATERWAYS RISE. IMMEDIATE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WL BE WINDING
DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS HEAVIEST PCPN COMES TO AN END.
ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS WL MV INTO AREA ON FRIDAY AS A SFC BNDRY
FOLLOWS IN FM CANADA IN ADVANCE OF 1020MB HIPRES BUILDING IN. WITH
TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LWR 70S AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT,
POTENTIAL WL EXIST FOR ISOLD THUNDER DRG THE AFTN.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FRI NGT BRINGING CLRNG SKIES AND TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S SATURDAY MRNG. AFN HIGHS ON SATURDAY PROGGED TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO APPCH AFT THE SHORT
TERM PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. UNSETTLED TO START
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SYSTEMS GOING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WED TO THU. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UTILIZED WPC MED RNG GUIDANCE. LTL CHG TO CRNT FCST WITH HI PRES
RDG MOVG OFF THE EAST CST SAT NGT. A SERIES OF S/WV`S EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
FCST UNTIL TUE...WHEN THE LAST OF THESE SYSTEMS IS XPCTD TO PASS.
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES FOLLOWS FOR NXT TUE NGT AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND
LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL END THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY
MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
VFR BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE EAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY SHIFTING TO NORTH AT 10
KTS OR LESS TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IMPRVNG TO VFR.
FRI NGT/SAT/SAT NGT...VFR BUT POTENTIAL VALLEY FOG SAT AM AT ELM.
SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POSSIBLE RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY INTO FRIDAY. 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND MAYBE MORE. STILL QUESTIONS ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAIN.
MOST MODELS HAVE IT IN THE SRN TIER TO CATSKILLS OF NY WHILE THE
EURO AND WPC IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. BOTH WAYS
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY AROUND AN INCH AND NOT IN THE FLOOD
WATCH. WITH HIGH PWATS AND TSTMS RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS. 2 INCHES WILL START TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS AND 3 AND MORE WILL BE WORSE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 3
PLUS SO RIVER FLOODING WILL ONLY BE MINOR. FOR NOW SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER AT VESTAL AND WAVERLY/SAYRE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MINOR
FLOODING. WALTON ON THE WEST BRANCH DELAWARE WILL GET CLOSE.
HEADWATERS AT CORTLAND AND SHERBURNE NOT IN THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS
BUT IF IT SETS UP 50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THESE POINTS WILL FLOOD.
FOR NOW RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED FRIDAY SO NO WARNINGS ISSUED UNTIL
RAIN COMES IN AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ025-044>046-056-057-
062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
107 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TODAY. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD A SOAKING RAIN INTO NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SMALL STREAM AND MINOR
RIVER FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST LATE TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
LATEST RAP NOW SHOOTS THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS. WITH
THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE DROPPED THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE
FLOOD WATCH.
1205 PM UPDATE...
RAP REMAINS INSISTENT THAT AREA OF MODERATE PRECIP WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD CHENANGO AND DELAWARE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR, AND INTENSIFY OVER THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. MODELS
HAVE PERFORMED QUITE POORLY WITH BOTH THE QPF AND FRONTOGENESIS
FIELDS SO FAR, SO IT IS NATURAL TO HAVE A HEALTHY DOSE OF
SKEPTICISM. HOWEVER WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR/SAT TRENDS FOR
A SHIFT IN THE PRECIP AXIS.
WILL BE ASSESSING FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
945 AM UPDATE...
MORNING THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FA HAS
PASSED, SO WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR LUZERNE CO.
THIS MORNING...A GENERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS BEEN
OBSERVED TO THIS POINT, WITH AROUND A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH EXPECTED
TO HAVE ACCUMULATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DEVELOPED EARLIER AND WILL HAVE A LARGE EFFECT
ON OUR POPS/QPF THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS TRY TO
FILL IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM, IN ADVANCE OF 700MB
LOW AND RELATED FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF IT. MODEL PROJECTIONS WOULD
BRING THIS FAVORABLE AREA SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TWIN TIERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN FA FOR LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
WE ARE PLAYING THE 700MB LOW / FRONTOGENESIS AS THE AREA WHERE
PRECIP WILL INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TOTAL
STORM QPF VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN FA WHERE LOW HANGS UP
LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM UPDATE...
SYSTEM PULLS MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA AFT 06Z TONIGHT. HWVR, WITH
WATER STILL RUNNING OFF, CONCERN AFT THIS POINT WL BE HOW MUCH WL
LOCAL WATERWAYS RISE. IMMEDIATE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WL BE WINDING
DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS HEAVIEST PCPN COMES TO AN END.
ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS WL MV INTO AREA ON FRIDAY AS A SFC BNDRY
FOLLOWS IN FM CANADA IN ADVANCE OF 1020MB HIPRES BUILDING IN. WITH
TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LWR 70S AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT,
POTENTIAL WL EXIST FOR ISOLD THUNDER DRG THE AFTN.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FRI NGT BRINGING CLRNG SKIES AND TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S SATURDAY MRNG. AFN HIGHS ON SATURDAY PROGGED TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO APPCH AFT THE SHORT
TERM PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. UNSETTLED TO START
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SYSTEMS GOING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WED TO THU. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UTILIZED WPC MED RNG GUIDANCE. LTL CHG TO CRNT FCST WITH HI PRES
RDG MOVG OFF THE EAST CST SAT NGT. A SERIES OF S/WV`S EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
FCST UNTIL TUE...WHEN THE LAST OF THESE SYSTEMS IS XPCTD TO PASS.
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES FOLLOWS FOR NXT TUE NGT AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR AND OTHER
FUEL/ALTERNATE MINIMUMS POSSIBLE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR ALL LOCAL TAF SITES.
STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS MOSTLY DUE TO CIGS. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
TOO. CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
THIS MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES. A
FINAL SHIFT TO NW TO NE LATE AFTN AND THIS EVENING AT 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...IMPRVNG TO VFR.
FRI NGT/SAT/SAT NGT...VFR BUT POTENTIAL VALLEY FOG SAT AM AT ELM.
SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POSSIBLE RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY INTO FRIDAY. 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND MAYBE MORE. STILL QUESTIONS ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAIN.
MOST MODELS HAVE IT IN THE SRN TIER TO CATSKILLS OF NY WHILE THE
EURO AND WPC IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. BOTH WAYS
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY AROUND AN INCH AND NOT IN THE FLOOD
WATCH. WITH HIGH PWATS AND TSTMS RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS. 2 INCHES WILL START TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS AND 3 AND MORE WILL BE WORSE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 3
PLUS SO RIVER FLOODING WILL ONLY BE MINOR. FOR NOW SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER AT VESTAL AND WAVERLY/SAYRE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MINOR
FLOODING. WALTON ON THE WEST BRANCH DELAWARE WILL GET CLOSE.
HEADWATERS AT CORTLAND AND SHERBURNE NOT IN THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS
BUT IF IT SETS UP 50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THESE POINTS WILL FLOOD.
FOR NOW RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED FRIDAY SO NO WARNINGS ISSUED UNTIL
RAIN COMES IN AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ025-044>046-056-057-
062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
301 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
...PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT...
PDS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWED MLCAPE FROM NEARLY 2000J/KG TO CLOSE TO
4000J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 0-6KM SHEAR WAS STILL BETTER
NORTH...FROM NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER NORTH INTO VIRGINIA...BUT
DOWNDRAFT CAPE WAS A ROBUST 1000-1500J/KG THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. MSAS SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES WERE -8C TO -10C. THE
LATEST KGSO SOUNDING...FROM 18Z...SHOWED A CAP REMAINING AROUND
800MB BUT WITH THE LAYER AROUND 800MB COOLING SINCE 12Z. THE 18Z
SOUNDING AT KRNK SHOWED THE CAP JUST ABOVE 800MB HAD ERODED...
SUFFICIENTLY FOR A GUST AT KROA TO 59KT WITH STORM PASSAGE AT 1828Z.
THE LATEST HRRR WRF CONTINUES WITH A TIMING OF 19Z TO 21Z IN THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD...21Z TO 23Z IN THE TRIANGLE NEAR KRDU AND SOUTHWEST
ALONG U.S. 1...AND IN VICINITY OF 22Z OR JUST A LITTLE LATER TOWARD
KRWI...KFAY...AND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE 0-3KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE 18Z KGSO SOUNDING WAS 84M2/S2...ONE STILL
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO...AS STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THE LOWEST 3KM ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE APPEARED PRETTY ACCURATE
AND WAS ABOVE 100M2/S2 OVER MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...HIGHEST RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. -10C TO -30C CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF
1000J/KG AS WELL...SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ASSISTING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...ALREADY SHOWN ON THE 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING PLOT EXTENDING
FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD LAG THE DEEP
CONVECTION...AND WILL HOLD ONTO POPS FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEHIND THE
TIMING NOTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INCREASING STABLE AIR MASS WITH DIMINISHING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WILL
HAVE POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
05Z...AND THIS COULD END UP BEING SLOW EVEN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
TOWARD KCTZ. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY...IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STRONG LOW...WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20KT IN PLACES
WITH MIXING. THESE VALUES SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB AND
925MB WINDS DIMINISH. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND K INDICES SHOW A
BRIEF INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 85KT 300MB AND 55KT
500MB JET...DIVERGENCE AT 850MB AND STABLE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION. BUFR SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...
NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW HIGH SC OR LOW AC DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AT LEAST FEATURE IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF OF THE REGION BEFORE FLATTENING OUT BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND) WILL LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY LOWER 60S...BUT SOME UPPER
50S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO RETURN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE
ARE STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. BY MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE WILL REALLY BEGIN TO SEE OUR
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH PWAT VALUES RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...
THEREFORE AM EXPECTING MOSTLY DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRAILING FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BE WHAT
ULTIMATELY DRIVES OUR PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME POPS (MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE)
IN FOR THIS TIME FRAME AND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO RECEIVE SOME PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 112 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE TIMING CONTINUES TO SEEM SIMILAR TO THAT NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...19Z TO 21Z IN THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD...21Z TO 23Z IN THE TRIANGLE NEAR KRDU...AND IN
VICINITY OF 22Z TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. SIGNIFICANT CROSSWINDS COULD
DEVELOP WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND STILL ANTICIPATE A
FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KT WITH MIXING AHEAD OF DEEP CONVECTION. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO WEST AND NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING AND A TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...
EXPECT A FEW SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA VERY
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
112 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY...
...AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...
THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KGSO SHOWED A GOOD CAP BETWEEN 900MB AND
ROUGHLY 700MB...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE RELATIVELY DRY...
BELOW 1.25 INCHES. JUST UPSTREAM...HOWEVER...THE KRNK SOUNDING
SHOWED SOME OF THAT CAP ERODING...WHICH IS INDEED FORECAST BY THE
GUIDANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS NEARLY 100M HEIGHT FALLS...NOTED
UPSTREAM TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 500MB ON THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES...
HEAD TOWARD VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...THE CAP SHOULD ERODE. WITH
INSTABILITY ALREADY SOMEWHAT PLENTIFUL THIS MORNING...AS THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS A MIXED-LAYER CAPE WELL OVER 2000J/KG
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE...500-1000J/KG OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. DEVELOPMENT COULD
BE FAIRLY RAPID AS THE CAP ERODES AND DRY AIR IS OVERCOME...WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAP...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC ON THE
MORNING SOUNDINGS...AND FORECAST TO BE AROUND 7C/KM IN THE
1000-500MB LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST
ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT THAT IS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO CERTAINLY
BE COOL ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION EVEN IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST TIMING WOULD SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z TOWARD THE TRIAD...20Z TO 23Z IN
VICINITY OF THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR...AND 22Z OR SO TOWARD INTERSTATE 95
ESPECIALLY FROM ROCKY MOUNT SOUTH. THESE TIMES ARE IN CONCERT WITH
THE EROSION OF THE CAP AS FORECAST BY THE LATEST RAP...AS WELL AS
THE LATEST HRRR WRF. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 40KT...AND 925MB WINDS TO 35KT...THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT OTHER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY URBAN CONCERNS...CURRENTLY THINK PROGRESS OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FLASH FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES SUGGESTED HIGHS A TRIFLE WARMER THAN FORECAST...AND
ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 1 HAVE RAISED MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO AS
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE FOR LONGER THERE. HIGHS SHOULD BE 90
TO 95 TOWARD THE TRIAD...AND MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ANTICIPATE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO
LOWER DEW POINTS SUCH THAT HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT STILL AS HIGH AS AROUND 103F TOWARD KMEB...KFAY...AND
KCTZ. ALREADY...THE HEAT INDEX IS JUST OVER 100F AT KCTZ.
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE THE CAP ERODES
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30KT ARE PROBABLE...AND ONE OR TWO CLOSE TO 35KT.
GIVEN THE WET GROUND OF LATE...AN ISOLATED SHALLOWLY-ROOTED TREE OR
THREE COULD FALL AHEAD OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IF WE ARE ABLE TO
RESOLVE SUCH WIND GUSTS. CERTAINLY...THE WET GROUND IS A CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHTNING
SHOULD ALSO BE FREQUENT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE ALOFT...-10C TO -30C CAPE IS 1000-1500J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON.
SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING BY INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANTICIPATING THE
GREATER INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY EAST...HAVE LOWER LIKELY POPS
TOWARD THE TRIAD...VERY HIGH LIKELY POPS TOWARD INTERSTATE 95.
OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70 WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE BEHIND THE DEEP
CONVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
MORNING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S (COOLEST NORTH) WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S...PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 50S IN RURAL/LOW-LYING AREAS. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM THURSDAY...
A DRY WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON-TUE NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT
WEEK. NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT-SUN TO BRING A MILD
TO WARM AND DRY WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR MID JUNE
WITH READINGS IN THE 55-60 RANGE NORTH... AND 60-65 SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING... MODIFYING TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SAT-SUN...
THESE LOWS WILL BE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID 80S
SUNDAY.
MON-WED... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AGAIN THIS PERIOD. THE
MAIN STORM TRACK IS AGAIN FORECAST WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO BE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SE TO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WOULD PLACE AREAS TO OUR NORTH AT THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER... THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION. THE
CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SSW FLOW INCREASES THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC. HOWEVER... THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH DURING OR AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE ON WED AS THE FRONT APPEARS TO SLOW DOWN AND
POSSIBLY STALL NEAR SE NC ON WED. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE 85-90 AFTER
LOWS OF 65-70. LOWS TUESDAY 70-74 WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER STILL... WITH LOWS 65-70.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 112 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE TIMING CONTINUES TO SEEM SIMILAR TO THAT NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...19Z TO 21Z IN THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD...21Z TO 23Z IN THE TRIANGLE NEAR KRDU...AND IN
VICINITY OF 22Z TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. SIGNIFICANT CROSSWINDS COULD
DEVELOP WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND STILL ANTICIPATE A
FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KT WITH MIXING AHEAD OF DEEP CONVECTION. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO WEST AND NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING AND A TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...
EXPECT A FEW SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA VERY
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
611 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND BE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RAISE POPS ACROSS MAINLY
ASHTABULA/TRUMBULL/MAHONING COUNTIES WHERE PERSISTANT BAND OF
SHOWERS HAS SET UP. THESE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHWEST
FLANK OF THE 700MB LOW IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ON THE
FRINGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL PULL EAST THIS EVENING AND MAY SEE THE SHOWERS SHIFT INTO
PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE DISSIPATING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND CAUSE SOME
LIMITED MOISTURE TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THIS AREA IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND I SUSPECT THAT WE
SHOULD SEE A LOT OF IT DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WE CANT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IN THE
EAST. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A NICE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EAST AT THIS TIME. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL. SO WILL MENTION SPRINKLES AND OR SHOWERS FOR
NOW DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
THE WESTERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE THE CLEARING PERSIST WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS GETTING IN THE WAY OF A CLEAR SKY
OVERNIGHT. EVERY WHERE ELSE IN BETWEEN...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH FAIR WEATHER.
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP
WELL INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST AND MIDDLE 50S IN THE WEST. 850
MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 10 DEGREES C OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RESULT IN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL DAMPEN OVER TIME AS IT MOVES EAST AND FLOW WILL BECOME
NEARLY ZONAL. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BACK TO MORE
NORMAL READINGS INTO THE WEEKEND.
FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL
HOWEVER BE SHORT LIVED.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNFORTUNATE PART IS IF THESE FEATURES SLOW
IN THEIR FORWARD MOTION COMPARED TO THEIR LATE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
ARRIVAL AND SUNDAY MORNING...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER THAT COULD AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. WE OBVIOUSLY WILL BE
MONITORING THIS SITUATION AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. BUT WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OUT OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO INSTABILITY NOT
LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE.
YET ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER WAVE THAT
MAY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. SO AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WE SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
MOST LOCATIONS WITHING A FEW DEGREES OF 80. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AS A CLEARING LINE MOVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE IN THE 2500 TO 4500 FOOT
RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MVFR SEEMS
LIKELY WITH PATCHES OF IFR CLOUD COVER AND FOG POSSIBLE AS WE
APPROACH SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALL ERODE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN MORNING FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE INTO THE EVENING. WESTERN AREAS MAY DECREASE FASTER THAN
CURRENT THINKING BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR A
BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTERLY
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE AT SOME POINT ON MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KEC/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND BE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND CAUSE SOME LIMITED MOISTURE TO ROTATE
INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THIS AREA IS DIURNAL
IN NATURE AND I SUSPECT THAT WE SHOULD SEE A LOT OF IT DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WE CANT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IN THE EAST. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A NICE BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST AT THIS TIME. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. SO WILL MENTION SPRINKLES AND
OR SHOWERS FOR NOW DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
THE WESTERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE THE CLEARING PERSIST WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS GETTING IN THE WAY OF A CLEAR SKY
OVERNIGHT. EVERY WHERE ELSE IN BETWEEN...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH FAIR WEATHER.
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP
WELL INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST AND MIDDLE 50S IN THE WEST. 850
MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 10 DEGREES C OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RESULT IN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL DAMPEN OVER TIME AS IT MOVES EAST AND FLOW WILL BECOME
NEARLY ZONAL. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BACK TO MORE
NORMAL READINGS INTO THE WEEKEND.
FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL
HOWEVER BE SHORT LIVED.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNFORTUNATE PART IS IF THESE FEATURES SLOW
IN THEIR FORWARD MOTION COMPARED TO THEIR LATE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
ARRIVAL AND SUNDAY MORNING...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER THAT COULD AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. WE OBVIOUSLY WILL BE
MONITORING THIS SITUATION AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. BUT WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OUT OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO INSTABILITY NOT
LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE.
YET ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER WAVE THAT
MAY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. SO AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WE SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
MOST LOCATIONS WITHING A FEW DEGREES OF 80. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AS A CLEARING LINE MOVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE IN THE 2500 TO 4500 FOOT
RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MVFR SEEMS
LIKELY WITH PATCHES OF IFR CLOUD COVER AND FOG POSSIBLE AS WE
APPROACH SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD ALL ERODE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN MORNING FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. NON VFR ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE INTO THE EVENING. WESTERN AREAS MAY DECREASE FASTER THAN
CURRENT THINKING BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR A
BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTERLY
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE AT SOME POINT ON MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1219 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORMS SYSTEM OVER NWRN PA EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY BEFORE A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A RETURN OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LINE OF STRONG STORMS THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH
WINDS EARLY TODAY HAS MOVED TO THE NJ COAST. THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW THAT TRIGGERED THE LINE ARE STILL MEANDERING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR STILL IN PLACE. THE BIG
QUESTION IS IF WE CAN SEE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER IN TIME FOR NEW
CONVECTION TO BECOME AN ISSUE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES EAST OR SOUTHEAST. MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST
CHANCE OF THE CONVECTION REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING OR REDEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION. CONCERN IS THE BINOVC/CLEARING THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RAISE THE THREAT. THE RAP SHOWS CAPES
REBOUNDING IN THAT AREA AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF MOST
CONCERN IN THE CWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE SERN 3 COUNTIES
SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF OUR BORDER. IF IT BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTH AT ALL...THOSE
COUNTIES WOULD BE MOST UNDER THE GUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING A DIMINISHING
THREAT OF SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY.
DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AFT...GIVEN
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SE...AND COLD AIR ALOFT.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER DAY THIS WEEKEND.
DID BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
NOW...IN LINE WITH OTHER OFFICES AND NEW GUIDANCE.
STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY...AS WE ARE IN
THE WARM SECTOR...BUT WEAK WAVES ALOFT MOVING IN.
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO PA ON TUE...STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
WENT WITH A DRY DAY ON WED...WITH COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE ABNORMALLY INTENSE
STORM CURRENTLY OVER NWRN PA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR WILL
CONTINUE TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT TERMINALS INTO THE LATE DAY AND
EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THE WIND WILL BE
CHANGEABLE AND GUSTY TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS...BUT HIGH TERRAIN
SITES COULD REMAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG AS WINDS
DROP OFF.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1028 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
The rest of the work week will be cooler than normal with the
threat of showers. Today will likely be the most active day for
showers and thunderstorms as an area of low pressure tracks slowly
over the region. Drier and warmer weather can be anticipated by
this weekend...with more unsettled conditions returning early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Forecast area on the north side of the jet stream today and
tonight and under the influence of a cool/cold conditionally
unstable trof. This mornings 12Z KOTX sounding shows how this is
just the case as the sounding shows fairly steep lapse rates
approaching 8 deg C/KM aloft coupled with a trop that is squished
down/lowered to near 380mb or so. So for now the bulk of the
dynamics associated with the jet stream along the periphery of the
low will keep convection going (including thunderstorms in various
shape/form...regardless of time of day) while in the center of the
low where we are it is likely to be more surface based type
convective showers with a number of the past and recent HRRR model
runs depicting just such a scenario (surface based orographic
convection) starting after 18Z. Storm motion should be quite
slow...5 mph or less and from all sorts of directions due to the
position of this upper level low almost directly overhead. Minimal
changes expected to be made to the forecast this morning. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low pressure in the area with jet stream to the south of
the aviation area will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorm
development from now until sundown...primarily with the best chance
over the northern mountains. Slow movement of these hower and
thunderstorm may allow for locally heavy rainfall. VFR should
prevail but local MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible near
the more intense showers/thunderstorms. After sundown the next
issue of note would be patchy fog and/or stratus/low cloud
development from about 10Z on to 18Z for locations that get the most
rainfall. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 46 68 47 76 53 / 30 30 10 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 66 45 67 44 75 48 / 40 40 30 20 10 10
Pullman 65 42 67 43 77 48 / 20 30 20 10 10 10
Lewiston 71 49 75 49 85 54 / 30 30 10 10 0 0
Colville 71 45 73 45 81 50 / 50 50 40 10 10 10
Sandpoint 65 43 65 41 75 44 / 50 50 50 20 10 10
Kellogg 60 44 63 44 72 51 / 50 50 30 20 10 10
Moses Lake 74 48 77 49 84 57 / 20 20 10 0 0 10
Wenatchee 72 52 75 54 84 61 / 20 10 0 10 0 10
Omak 72 47 75 48 82 53 / 30 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WATER VAPOR INDICATED A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHEAST.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLAN ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH MONTANA AND INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL EDGE EAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 850
MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD TRACK EAST WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS ALSO IS
THE AREA OF THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WITH 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 2000 J/KG. ALSO. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN
IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP...REPEATED ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THIS RAIN ON TOP OF THE SATURATED SOILS WOULD GO DIRECTLY INTO
RUNOFF...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXACTLY
WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP.
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT THE WARM FRONT COULD SET UP CLOSER TO
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH
1-7 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
THE SHEAR STARTS TO WANE LATE IN THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 875 MB.
THESE HIGHER CAPE VALUES OCCUR MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA...THEN
PUSHES EAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
REALLY ISN/T APPRECIABLE FORCING WITH THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
OVERCOME THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...WITH 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG. AN INTERESTING SHEAR PROFILE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH RATHER WEAK FLOW FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH 700MB. THE WINDS THEN INCREASE FROM ABOVE 700 THROUGH 200
MB...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAINS CONCERNS.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES SOAR
TO AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES HOVERING IN THE
40 TO 45 KT RANGE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE WAVE COULD MOVE IN LATER IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT. THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SKC SKIES AND
VRB TO LIGHT EAST WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRI
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN ANTICIPATED AREA OF SHRA/TS MOVING NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. PCPN LOOKS LIKELY FOR KRST/KLSE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH A LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS AS THE SHRA/TS MOVE
IN. PERIODS OF MVFR APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY. PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
TURNING BACK TO TONIGHT...SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT FOG OR POSSIBLY
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND A RELATIVELY WET
BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...SFC T/TD SPREAD IS 25 DEGREES AT KLSE AS
OF 22Z...AND RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRED TO 14 KTS AT
200 FT. SO...THINK THE FOG/STRATUS THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HOLDS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH COULD QUICKLY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING SINCE THE SOILS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
COULD BE IMPACTED DEPENDING ON WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4.2KM AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...THE STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE AREA THAT LOOKS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WILL
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THESE AREAS WERE HIT PRETTY HARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM.....WETENKAMP
AVIATION......RIECK
HYDROLOGY.....WETENKAMP