Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/11/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1005 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
MAIN PURPOSE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS IN THE POP GRIDS...THAT IS...DELAYED THE RAINFALL A
BIT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID
REFRESH RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS SO TRENDED
HEAVILY TOWARDS THAT MODEL...WHICH SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING TOWARDS THE NOON HOUR. AS WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER AR. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT SOME LOW CIGS/VIS COULD
BE SEEN UNDER THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER NRN AR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE WAS ENTERING EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A REMNANT BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONT IN OKLAHOMA...WHILE ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...AS THE FRONT ENTERS ARKANSAS. LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SYNOPTIC SETUP AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ISN/T THAT GREAT...SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...
WITH THE FRONT HANGING UP OVER THE AREA...THEN BACKING TO THE
NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTERACTS
WITH THE RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BE NOTED IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
90S. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING INCREDIBLY HOT...AND THE SREF
BEING UNDERDONE. MEX MOS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE AS WELL. HAVE GONE
MORE TOWARD THE CANADIAN AND RAW GFS...AS THESE SEEM TO BE THE
MOST REALISTIC...GIVEN THE SETUP.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE FROM THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY REGION TOWARDS THE CENTRAL EAST COAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM...WITH WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE.
HAVE MENTIONED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT AS
THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT THIS FRONT WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS JUST
TO THE WEST OF AR. LATE THIS WEEK...THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...EXPANDING EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WARM ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 90S FOR
HIGHS...AND PRECIP CHANCES TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 83 65 83 67 / 60 20 20 10
CAMDEN AR 85 68 93 72 / 40 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 79 63 85 65 / 40 20 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 84 68 91 71 / 40 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 67 90 72 / 50 20 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 87 68 92 72 / 40 20 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 84 64 91 70 / 40 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 61 83 65 / 50 20 20 10
NEWPORT AR 85 64 86 68 / 60 30 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 86 66 91 72 / 50 20 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 83 64 89 70 / 40 20 20 10
SEARCY AR 85 64 89 69 / 60 20 20 10
STUTTGART AR 86 66 91 70 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1014 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING HEAVY SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH SOME
SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
***A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE
CAPE/ISLANDS AS MORE HEAVY RAIN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
10 PM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LIFTING ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL THUS FAR CONFINED TO RI AND SE MA WITH RAINFALL
RATES 0.25-0.5"/HR. LATEST RAP KEEPS HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE RI
COAST AND SE MA THROUGH 06Z SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RAINFALL
RATES ESPECIALLY FOR THE URBAN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCT ACROSS W MA
AND CT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS MOVING EWD FROM E PA TO MD AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
OVERNIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
INTO SNE. THREAT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS SO WE WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE
HARD TO JUSTIFY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IF CONVECTION DOESN/T
MATERIALIZE. WILL EVALUATE THIS WITH FULL 00Z MODEL SUITE.
WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF NYC AREA AND THE NAM LIFTS IT N
TO THE ISLANDS 06-09Z AND ACROSS S RI AND SE MA AND CAPE COD
09-12Z. WIND SHIFT TO S AND TEMPS RISING INTO MID/UPPER 60S WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN
1.5 AND 2 INCHES WHICH IS 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND AS WELL AS
ADJACENT MASSACHUSETTS ZONES RECEIVED UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE WE
ARE ONLY FORECASTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BECAUSE OF THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE
WEEKEND...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING. AT THIS POINT WE EXPECT THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN LAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IF THIS SHIFTS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING...AS WELL AS MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE SMALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
RIVER FLOODING...PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. TO BEGIN THE DAY...MAY A SEE FEW BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS
EARLY ON. THIS IS A TOUGH FORECAST GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING AS WELL AS THE SPEED AND EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT. THE
FORMER WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE LATTER WILL DETERMINE WHERE
THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING HEAVY RAIN AND CONTINUED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING WITH HIGH PWATS STILL IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES REACHED DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT TRAVELS AS WELL AS THE EXTENT OF THE
CLOUD COVER. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE PIKE TO HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE PIKE MAY
REACH INTO THE LOW 70S. IF THE WARM FRONT STAYS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...TEMPERATURES WOULD STAY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED.
* COASTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
* COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY WARMUP FOR WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR HOWEVER TIMING DIFFERENCE AND
MESOSCALE PARAMETERS DIFFER. OVERALL PATTERN GENERALLY REMAINS THE
SAME WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND UPPER
LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE COASTS. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL BREAK ANYTIME SOON...THEREFORE HAVE CONFIDENCE OF AN
ACTIVE/WET PATTERN WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TEMPS.
DETAILS...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT...BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BELIEVE THEY WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION ON WED
HOWEVER...WITH STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COULD STILL SEE SOME ISO SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER AS CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
FOCUS THE FORECAST MAINLY ON THIS PORTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND COASTAL STORM FURTHER NORTH AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE EC
HOWEVER SINCE BOTH KEEP TRENDING NORTHWARD HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME WEATHER HEADLINES TO WATCH OUT FOR IS MORE
FLOODING...WIND AND SURF. FOR NOW CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST
AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT IN LATER FORECASTS.
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE COASTAL BRING A
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. HOWEVER AN ISO SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPS WILL STILL AT OR BELOW AVG.
WEEKEND...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND A CHANCE TO DRY OUT. TEMPS
WILL STILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM...NEARING AVG AS 850MB TEMPS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8-10C. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A DRY AND PLEASANT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN HEAVY SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE
WILL BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE
TAFS BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. THE SEABREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...SCT SHOWERS WILL KEEP CIGS IN MVFR. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN 20-25KTS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SOUTH OF ROUTE 6
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED IFR IS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVY SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WATERS. WHILE WINDS WILL MOSTLY STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
FOR LINGERING SEAS ESP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST ON
WED UP TO 25KTS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BE BELOW CRITERIA
AT THE START. APPROACHING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SEAS AND
WINDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PROB FOR NORTHEASTERLY
GALES FRIDAY AS LOW PASSES OVER THE SOUTHER WATERS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT HIGH END SCA.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SCA SEAS AS WINDS DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI...
WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUE MAY BRING PAWTUXET TO ITS
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE OF 11 FT TUE...ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL ADDS UP
TO MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR SW RI MAINLY FOR THE
PAWCATUCK RIVER WHICH HAS RISEN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
MINOR FLOODING MAY ALSO AFFECT FOLLOWING RIVERS...
* ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD MA
* SUDBURY RIVER AT SAXONVILLE/FRAMINGHAM MA
* NORTH NASHUA RIVER AT FITCHBURG MA
LATEST NERFC FORECAST BRINGS THESE CLOSE OR JUST TO FLOOD STAGE
BASED UPON RAINFALL FORECAST OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE WARNINGS JUST YET.
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH/HOUR RAINFALL RATES.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH ARE MORE VULNERABLE INCLUDING FALL RIVER
MA...NEW BEDFORD MA...PEABODY MA AND SECTIONS OF BOSTON.
SMALLER STREAMS ARE ALSO VULNERABLE TO FLOOD...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN
RI AND CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHICH RECEIVED HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH LAST EVENT. THRESHOLD THERE IS ABOUT 2.00 INCHES OF RAIN...
WHILE SMALLER STREAMS FARTHER N/W ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH MAY NOT
GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL GETTING 3.00 INCHES OF RAIN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ002>021-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-
237-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
722 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE TRIPLE
POINT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. BASICALLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP TO THE WARM
FRONT.
THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST...AS THE NEAREST LIGHTNING IS
ACROSS CNTRL PA AND MD. THE FORECAST PHRASES THE RAINFALL AS
MODERATE IN INTENSITY IN THE GRIDS TOO. IT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE ONE TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH AN HOUR RANGE IN BURSTS.
PWATS THIS EVENING RISE TO BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THESE PWATS REFLECT THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT COMMON IN STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELDS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL
OF SURFACE HEATING AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SBCAPES TUESDAY AFTERNOON BTWN 400 AND 800
J/KG. BETTER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AS SECONDARY TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS NRN NEW
YORK PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND PCPN GENERALLY AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A THIRD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE FA WITH THE RAIN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
LATE AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT A BREEZY DAY WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN AREAS AS A STRONG VORT AXIS
CROSSES FA SWINGING ARND THE BASE OF THE H5 TROF. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH
READINGS ARND 80 NEAR KPOU.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE RAINFALL SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST GETS TO OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL FORECAST CHANCE POPS
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT A BIT UNSETTLED...BUT THINGS IMPROVE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN/CANADIAN GGEM/HPC
GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE A CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THU-THU NIGHT. THE SFC CYCLONE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH.
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING N/NE OF THE SFC CYCLONE WILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THU
PM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUT-OFF IN THE OVER RUNNING
RAINFALL. THE NRN ZONES MAY STAY DRY. FOR NOW...SLIGHT CHC POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THU NIGHT NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. CHC POPS ARE KEPT FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THE STEADY SHOWERS GOING THU
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO NOT PLACE HIGHER POPS
AT THIS TIME. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M40S TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER TH HILLS.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 250-500 J/KG WITH
TOTAL TOTALS OF AROUND 50. THE 850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES APPROACH 6.5
C/KM. SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH SFC DEWPTS
IN THE M40S TO M50S. H850 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND +10C...SO MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE IN 70-75F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND NW CT...AND
MID AND U60S OVER THE MTNS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SRN ONTARIO
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO +6C TO +9C. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE M40S TO M50S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH
WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE CAROLINAS WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR.
THE REGION WILL ENJOY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON
SAT...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TOO...BUT BASED ON THE TIMING OF
THE DISTURBANCE THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ADDED TO GRIDDED FCST YET.
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH PCPN SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE STRETCH.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STEADY RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT SO FAR...WHICH HAS KEPT FLYING CONDITIONS
GENERALLY VFR. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
MVFR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE RAIN PICKING UP IN INTENSITY AND
ALLOWING VSBYS TO DROP...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
KPSF/KPOU. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 00Z UNTIL KALB/KGFL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS.
A MODERATE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE LATE
EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW
FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. LATE TONIGHT...THE STEADY RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE VSBYS...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
KEEP SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AROUND. BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY...MOST OF THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BREAK
UP...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND.
SFC WINDS ARE NEARLY CALM OR LIGHT OUT OF THE E-SE EARLY THIS AFTN.
EVENTUALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND
5-10 KTS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A W-SW DIRECTION ON TUESDAY AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA AT KPOU.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT RAINFALL EVENT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A OCCLUDED FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE QUITE HEAVY WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS AS THOUGH IT
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES WITH A SECONDARY AXIS OF HEAVY PCPN ACRS THE ERN
CATSKILLS. THE HOUSATONIC BASIN WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE CONNECTICUT SECTION OF THE
RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
DURING MID WEEK...MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
520 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. LONGWAVE RIDGING
STILL IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
IN PARTIAL RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES...SEEING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS REBOUND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
COAST INCLUDING OVER OUR HEADS. THIS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HOLD STEADY OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WINS THE BATTLE AND SUPPRESSES THE
RIDGE BACK TO THE EAST. WV IMAGERY SHOWS NO LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER OUR REGION...AND A LOOK AT THE
09/00Z KTBW SOUNDING REVEALS THAT THE MOISTURE IS THROUGH THE EXTENT
OF THE COLUMN. THE MEASURED PW VALUE OFF THIS SOUNDING PROFILE WAS
OVER 2".
AT THE SURFACE...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD HOLD IN POSITION THROUGH TODAY. THIS
POSITION IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN WAS THOUGH WITH SOME PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND RESULTS IN SOME MINOR IMPACTS/CHANGES TO THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN AL WITHIN THE ZONE OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OUR LOCAL AREA IS FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO ESCAPE THIS SUPPORT FOR NOW...AND SEEING A DRY EARLY MORNING
FORECAST AREA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TODAY...
A GENERALLY DRY...WARM AND MUGGY MORNING FOR THE REGION. A MIX OF
SUN AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...BUT ENOUGH SUN TO QUICKLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS CERTAINLY MOIST AND NOT
REALLY THAT HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION...SO DO EXPECT DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ENDED UP A BIT FURTHER
NORTH FOR TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. THIS POSITION RESULTS IN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ESE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FLOW IS BORDERLINE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS...OR AT LEAST HOLD BACK THE STRENGTH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA-BREEZE FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. WITH A WEAKER
SEA-BREEZE THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAKER AS WELL.
SO...WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND FOR I-4 SOUTHWARD...THE
WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE SUGGEST DROPPING THUNDER CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY 60%+ RANGE
DOWN TO THE CHANCE 45-55% RANGE. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST CITRUS/LEVY WHERE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WILL BE LESS THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...
THUNDER CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO THE COAST...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WEAKENING OR MOVING
OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY MIDNIGHT. THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT FOR OUR LAND ZONES SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AREAS THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATER DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL RUN THE RISK OF SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY...
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SETTLING BACK SOUTH
TO AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR. A WEAKER RESULTING GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW
WELL DEFINED SEA-BREEZE FORMATION FOR OUR ENTIRE COAST. GRADIENT
FLOW WITH THIS POSITION WILL FAVOR MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY...AND A SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT WILL ACCELERATE THE BOUNDARY
INLAND FOR MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST. THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE SUGGEST PLENTY OF SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
TAMPA...THUNDER CHANCES WILL TEND TO HAPPEN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA-BREEZE THEN TAKING BETTER RAIN CHANCES INLAND WITH
TIME. SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...THE OPPOSING SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL KEEP
THUNDER CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
TUESDAY...
A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH A
DRY START GIVING WAY TO A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.
THE QUESTIONABLE AREA OF THE REGION IS UP OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE
COAST. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED BY GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO BE PASSING
BY DURING THE DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS AXIS
PASSING...WE MAY SEE SOME WEAK SUPPRESSION/NVA OVERSPREAD OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD THIS BECOME MORE CERTAIN
WITH FUTURE GUIDANCE RUNS...THEN THE 30-40% RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF
PASCO COUNTY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE WARM AS 850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THOSE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST WHICH DO NOT SEE
CONVECTION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH
DOWN THE EAST U.S. INTO FL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WHILE
THE TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY SAT. AT
THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE...REACHING WEST FROM THE
ATLANTIC...MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTHERN FL THROUGH THU. THEN ON FRI BOTH
FEATURES BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTH...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE NATION...WITH THE TROUGH REACHING CENTRAL
FL SAT AS THE RIDGE SLIPS SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD ALONG WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE...FORECAST PWAT VALUES RUN
IN THE 1.4 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY INLAND...THANKS TO THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AREA
PRODUCING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OR SO.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA. AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME WELL
DEFINED ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR/LCL IFR VSBY OR CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE ESPECIALLY
INLAND AND IN THE SOUTH. THEN PREVAILING VFR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
WHEN SCT TSRA RESULT IN SOME MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SE DURING THE MORNING
THEN SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SUMMER-LIKE FEEL AND PATTERN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT. DEFINED SEA-BREEZES WILL BEGIN ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT
AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
STATE WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER PEAK COVERAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS PUSHED SOME
LOCAL RIVERS TO NEAR OR JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOTH THE MANATEE RIVER AT MYAKKA HEAD AND THE HORSE CREEK NEAR
ARCADIA WILL BRIEFLY BE AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR A TIME TODAY...AND
THEN SLOWLY RECEDE. THE MANATEE RIVER AT RYE BRIDGE IS CURRENTLY AT
ACTION STAGE...BUT APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AND IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW ACTION STAGE THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 75 91 76 / 50 30 50 20
FMY 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 50 20
GIF 91 73 93 73 / 50 30 50 20
SRQ 89 73 88 74 / 50 30 50 20
BKV 89 71 91 71 / 50 30 40 20
SPG 88 76 90 77 / 50 30 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX/HYDROLOGY...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
357 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS HAS REPOSITIONED ITSELF OVER N FL...RESULTING IN A
SERLY H100-H70 FLOW REGIME ACRS CENTRAL FL. H85-H50 STEERING FLOW
REMAINS SWRLY BUT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN IN RECENT DAYS. LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LCL AIRMASS WITH A SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SUPPLY
FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH A BAND OF 2.0"-2.2" PWAT EXTENDING
FROM WRN CUBA NEWD TOWARD BERMUDA...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S.
BIGGEST HINDRANCE TO SHRA/TSRA DVLPMNT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LACK OF
DYNAMIC LIFT. HERE...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE S FL PENINSULA UNDER A
DEARTH OF MID LVL VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN WEAK SRLY FLOW. GFS PICKS UP
ON THIS BY PLACING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA UNDER AN H70-H50
LYR THAT HAS ALMOST NO VORTICITY THRU 12Z MON. RAP ALSO SHOWS
SINKING MID LVL OMEGA VALUES ADVECTING TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA AND
AN UPR LYR THAT IS LARGELY NEUTRAL OR WEAKLY CONVERGENT.
WITH SUCH LOW DYNAMIC POTENTIAL...WILL NEED SEA BREEZES AND SFC
HEATING TO SUPPLY THE SOURCE OF LIFT. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER N
FL...THE S/SERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...BUT THE FLOW IS TOO WEAK FOR CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR BEFORE
LATE AFTN. GOOD SFC HEATING POTENTIAL AS MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT...DEBRIS OVER THE ERN GOMEX IS EMBEDDED
IN DEEP SRLY FLOW THAT WILL CARRY ITS BULK OVER THE WRN PENINSULA.
THE SRLY STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS NRN INTERIOR WILL BE THE FOCUS
POINT. GIVEN THE OVERALL TORPID NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...WILL CAP
PRECIP CHANCES AT 40PCT ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...DECREASING
TO 20PCT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
NO BIG SURPRISES IN MAX/MIN TEMPS. SE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS
IN THE M80S...WARMING TO ARND 90F OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE L/M70S.
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE PREDICATED ON POSITIONING
AND STRENGTH OF THE WRN ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. FEATURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY THEN BECOME
SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEAKENED BY A LATE WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH TO N FL.
RATHER WEAK GRADIENT WINDS ASCD WITH RIDGE INVOF CENTRAL FL WL
LEAD TO BOUNDARY DRIVEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MON-WED WITH NONE
EXPECTED TO BECOME TERRIBLY STRONG. PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES ALONG WITH SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARIES WL PLACE HIGHER
POP INLAND AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 EACH AFTERNOON AND NO AREAS WL
BE EXCEPTED FROM THUNDER POTENTIAL ALTOGETHER.
PAST MIDWEEK THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME SUPPRESSED OVER S FL BY A
ROBUST UPR TROUGH ALONG THE ERN/SE SEABOARD. INCREASING SW FLOW WL
FAVOR THE EAST PENINSULA FOR LATE DAY PCPN. SOME HINTINGS OF A DRY
SLOT MAY REDUCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE BUT HAVE KEPT IN LOW END SCT
COVERAGE FOR PCPN ATTM INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 08/16Z...VFR ALL SITES...CIGS AOA FL120. BTWN 09/16Z-09/19Z...
SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG NW OF KVRB-KOBE...ISOLD MVFR
SHRAS/IFR TSRAS SE OF KVRB-KOBE...PRECIP MVG N/NW 10-15KTS.
SHRAS/TSRAS CONTG THRU 10/02Z BUT DIMINISHING AFT 09/23Z. BCMG VFR
ALL SITES BY 10/02Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE OVER N FL WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SERLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND
3-4FT OFFSHORE. SE WIND COMPONENT WILL PLACE THE WATERS S OF
SEBASTIAN INLET IN THE SHADOW OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...RESULTING
IN CHOPPY WIND WAVES WITH DOMINANT PDS ARND 5SEC. N OF THE
INLET... DOMINANT PDS 8-9SEC. ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS.
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...PROXIMITY OF THE ATLC RIDGE WILL KEEP
FAVORABLE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE LOCAL
WATERS. INCREASING OFFSHORE AND FETCH LIMITED FLOW DEVELOPING
AROUND THU AND PERSISTING INTO SAT WL KEEP SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT WITH
HIGHEST SEAS WELL OFFSHORE TO END THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 74 88 73 / 30 20 40 20
MCO 90 73 91 73 / 40 20 40 20
MLB 87 75 88 75 / 30 20 30 20
VRB 86 76 87 73 / 20 20 30 20
LEE 89 74 92 75 / 40 30 40 30
SFB 90 74 92 74 / 40 20 40 20
ORL 90 74 92 75 / 40 20 40 20
FPR 85 76 87 73 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
115 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE NOW
MOVED INLAND OF PBI...AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL TERMINALS. THUS...NO MENTION IN TAFS. POP AROUND 20-30
PERCENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.
WINDS EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. GULF BREEZE INTRUSION IS LIKELY AT
KAPF BY AFTERNOON...CHANGING WINDS TO SSE AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS NE PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS VICINITY
AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH JUST THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OVERNIGHT. HRRR DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY EAST COAST AND GIVEN LATEST TRENDS
UPSTREAM, HAVE KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN AREAS.
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO FLORIDA. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES ARE ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
EASTERN GULF. IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE COASTAL AREAS TO THE
INTERIOR AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRIGGER OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
WESTERN METRO AREAS. OVERALL, THE REASONING IS THAT THE STRONGEST
RAINFALL WILL STAY OVER THE INTERIOR.
FOR SUNDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF
FLORIDA AND INDUCE A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND, BUT WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD STILL REACH THE WESTERN METRO AREAS. INTERESTING TO MENTION
IS THAT PART OF THE SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS MADE A
NORTHWARD TURN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN US AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND ANDREA. THIS HAS BEEN
SHOWN BY A VERY LIGHT WHITISH APPEARANCE OF THE SKY YESTERDAY AND
TODAY. THE NAVY MODEL CAPTURED THIS VERY WELL. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE EAST
RATHER THAN SOUTHERLY BELOW 700 MB.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE INTERIOR DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES. FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US, AMPLIFYING THE FLOW AND
ALLOWING FOR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, POSSIBLY AS A CUT-OFF LOW, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT WELL THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE,
SHOWING A SHIFT FROM EASTERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS A COLD POOL IN THE
500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C, WHICH IS 2-3C BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
THEREFORE, INCLUDED HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH SPEEDS BELOW 15
KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO
BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL PROBABLY RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO
50 PERCENT IN THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. NO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 78 88 78 / 30 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 79 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 88 76 89 78 / 30 20 20 10
NAPLES 88 74 91 73 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
.UPDATE...
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE TEMPS BASED ON SOME MORNING
SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUD COVERAGE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...TIMING OF INCREASING POPS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED
ON RECENT HI-RES MODEL RUNS AND SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS THE GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD. PWATS ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS ARE IN THE
1.8-2.0 INCH RANGE THEREFORE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUITE
EFFICIENT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
LARGELY ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 436 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
WITH THE CWA BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AREA IS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA
AND WILL MAKE FOR A RAIN FILLED SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING EXPANDING THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND BY AFTERNOON EXPECT DEVELOPMENT ALSO ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH EXCEPT FOR BEING
SLIGHTLY SLOW INITIALLY ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
SHOWERS...APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE SHEAR IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL HELP TO PLAY A ROLE IN
SUPPRESSING SEVERE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH POPS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST IS FOR BETTER
CHANCES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL LIKELY POPS IN FOR
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE CWA AND WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A DRY SLOT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY SO APPEARS MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FOR THE MOST PART AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSELY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING.
11
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA PROVIDING FOR AN ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM RISK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE POPS HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN THE DAYTIME...CERTAINLY AN ODDITY
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FIRST SHORTWAVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER TRANSITIONING TO JUST MID
RANGE SCATTERED FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN LATE TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH. GFS SHOWS POTENT DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ON THU
WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH AND ALLOWS A WEAK
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SUPPORT AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WILL RESULT IN HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THU EVENING.
AS FRONT CLEARS...EVEN DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER. WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE BUT POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END
CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY. PRECIP
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MAJORITY OF FORECAST PERIOD AND CIGS LOOK
TO GET TO MVFR NEAR 2500 FT AFTER 04Z AND IFR AROUND 700 FT FROM
08-15Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE DAY MONDAY
WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON THE DECREASE FROM THE NW AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SE THROUGH THIS EVENING... THEN SHIFT TO
SW AFTER ABOUT 08Z...STAYING LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT HIGHER
MAGNITUDES POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND INITIAL WINDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
ATLANTA 81 67 82 70 / 90 80 60 30
BLAIRSVILLE 80 65 76 65 / 90 80 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 83 68 83 70 / 90 80 60 50
COLUMBUS 84 69 87 73 / 90 70 60 30
GAINESVILLE 81 66 80 68 / 90 80 60 50
MACON 85 70 87 71 / 90 70 60 30
ROME 83 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 81 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
VIDALIA 87 72 88 74 / 70 60 60 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1048 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE TEMPS BASED ON SOME MORNING
SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUD COVERAGE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...TIMING OF INCREASING POPS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED
ON RECENT HI-RES MODEL RUNS AND SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS THE GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD. PWATS ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS ARE IN THE
1.8-2.0 INCH RANGE THEREFORE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUITE
EFFICIENT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
LARGELY ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 436 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
WITH THE CWA BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AREA IS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA
AND WILL MAKE FOR A RAIN FILLED SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING EXPANDING THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND BY AFTERNOON EXPECT DEVELOPMENT ALSO ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH EXCEPT FOR BEING
SLIGHTLY SLOW INITIALLY ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
SHOWERS...APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE SHEAR IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL HELP TO PLAY A ROLE IN
SUPPRESSING SEVERE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH POPS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST IS FOR BETTER
CHANCES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL LIKELY POPS IN FOR
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE CWA AND WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A DRY SLOT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY SO APPEARS MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FOR THE MOST PART AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSELY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING.
11
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA PROVIDING FOR AN ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM RISK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE POPS HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN THE DAYTIME...CERTAINLY AN ODDITY
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FIRST SHORTWAVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER TRANSITIONING TO JUST MID
RANGE SCATTERED FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN LATE TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH. GFS SHOWS POTENT DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ON THU
WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH AND ALLOWS A WEAK
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SUPPORT AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WILL RESULT IN HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THU EVENING.
AS FRONT CLEARS...EVEN DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER. WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE BUT POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END
CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TODAY AND MOSTLY ON THE SE
SIDE...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS OF SW. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS IN TERMS OF TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. AREA OF SHRA
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. ONCE
THE RAIN MOVES IN...SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD WITH SOME BREAKS. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND TIMING OF PRECIP/TSRA. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND CIGS.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
ATLANTA 81 67 82 70 / 90 80 60 30
BLAIRSVILLE 80 65 76 65 / 90 80 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 83 68 83 70 / 90 80 60 50
COLUMBUS 84 69 87 73 / 90 70 60 30
GAINESVILLE 81 66 80 68 / 90 80 60 50
MACON 85 70 87 71 / 90 70 60 30
ROME 83 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 81 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
VIDALIA 87 72 88 74 / 70 60 60 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 436 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
WITH THE CWA BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AREA IS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA
AND WILL MAKE FOR A RAIN FILLED SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING EXPANDING THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND BY AFTERNOON EXPECT DEVELOPMENT ALSO ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH EXCEPT FOR BEING
SLIGHTLY SLOW INITIALLY ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
SHOWERS...APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE SHEAR IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL HELP TO PLAY A ROLE IN
SUPPRESSING SEVERE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH POPS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST IS FOR BETTER
CHANCES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL LIKELY POPS IN FOR
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE CWA AND WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A DRY SLOT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY SO APPEARS MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FOR THE MOST PART AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSELY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING.
11
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA PROVIDING FOR AN ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM RISK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE POPS HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN THE DAYTIME...CERTAINLY AN ODDITY
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FIRST SHORTWAVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER TRANSITIONING TO JUST MID
RANGE SCATTERED FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN LATE TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH. GFS SHOWS POTENT DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ON THU
WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH AND ALLOWS A WEAK
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SUPPORT AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WILL RESULT IN HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THU EVENING.
AS FRONT CLEARS...EVEN DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER. WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE BUT POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END
CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TODAY AND MOSTLY ON THE SE
SIDE...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS OF SW. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS IN TERMS OF TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. AREA OF SHRA
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. ONCE
THE RAIN MOVES IN...SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD WITH SOME BREAKS. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND TIMING OF PRECIP/TSRA. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND CIGS.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
ATLANTA 81 67 82 70 / 90 80 60 30
BLAIRSVILLE 77 65 76 65 / 90 80 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 83 68 83 70 / 90 80 60 50
COLUMBUS 84 69 87 73 / 90 70 60 30
GAINESVILLE 80 66 80 68 / 90 80 60 50
MACON 85 70 87 71 / 90 70 60 30
ROME 83 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 81 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
VIDALIA 87 72 88 74 / 70 60 60 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
436 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE CWA BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AREA IS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA AND
WILL MAKE FOR A RAIN FILLED SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING EXPANDING THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
BY AFTERNOON EXPECT DEVELOPMENT ALSO ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH EXCEPT FOR BEING SLIGHTLY SLOW INITIALLY
ON THE POSITIONING OF THE SHOWERS...APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE
SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL HELP TO PLAY A ROLE IN
SUPPRESSING SEVERE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH POPS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST IS FOR BETTER
CHANCES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL LIKELY POPS IN FOR
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE CWA AND WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A DRY SLOT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY SO APPEARS MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FOR THE MOST PART AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSELY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING.
11
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA PROVIDING FOR AN ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM RISK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE POPS HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN THE DAYTIME...CERTAINLY AN ODDITY
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FIRST SHORTWAVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER TRANSITIONING TO JUST MID
RANGE SCATTERED FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN LATE TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH. GFS SHOWS POTENT DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ON THU
WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH AND ALLOWS A WEAK
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SUPPORT AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WILL RESULT IN HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THU EVENING.
AS FRONT CLEARS...EVEN DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER. WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE BUT POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END
CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY HOVER
AROUND SOUTH. INDICATIONS ARE THEY WILL MOSTLY REMAIN JUST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF SOUTH HOWEVER THERE IS A FEW HOURS MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON IT COULD GO TO THE WEST SIDE. OTHER MAIN
CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF THE TSRA AND SHRA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WILL LIKELY START BY MID MORNING BUT BETTER CHANCES ARE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HARD TO NARROW DOWN TIMING...BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP DUE TO INABILITY TO NARROW DOWN THE
TIMING.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 68 85 67 / 50 50 40 40
ATLANTA 82 67 84 68 / 60 50 50 50
BLAIRSVILLE 78 64 80 62 / 50 60 60 50
CARTERSVILLE 83 68 85 67 / 60 60 60 50
COLUMBUS 84 70 88 70 / 70 50 40 40
GAINESVILLE 82 67 82 67 / 50 50 50 50
MACON 85 69 87 69 / 60 50 40 30
ROME 84 68 84 66 / 60 60 60 50
PEACHTREE CITY 82 68 85 68 / 60 50 50 50
VIDALIA 87 72 87 72 / 50 40 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
14Z/9AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1003MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS.
ALOFT...VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM IS EVIDENT AS CLOSED 500MB LOW
IS ANALYZED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AS WELL. TWO DISTINCT SHORT-WAVES
ARE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW...WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND THE SECOND FURTHER NORTHWEST
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER-MAKER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TODAY...AS IT INTERACTS
WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13Z HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AND GENERALLY KEEPS CONVECTION OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC AND
EARLY MODEL DATA...HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...EXCEPT LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ARRIVE ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NE KILX CWA AROUND CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM. HAVE THEREFORE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE
EVENING...THEN ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ZONE UPDATE HAS
ALREADY BEEN SENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...REACHING KSPI
BY 20Z. LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL THEN PROGRESS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BASED ON
HRRR AND 4KM WRF...IT APPEARS BULK OF CONVECTION WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 03Z. WILL THEREFORE CARRY 4-HOUR
TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT ALL TAF SITES...BEGINNING AT KSPI AT
20Z AND ENDING AT KCMI BY 03Z. ONCE THE CONVECTION CLEARS THE
AREA...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL VEER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT ONCE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH UPPER-LOW OVERHEAD...BKN CU AT
AROUND 6000FT WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY. WILL MENTION VCSH AS
WELL...AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
00Z MODELS CONTINUE SLOWER TRENDS WITH WEATHER SYSTEM TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND TRENDED FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ALOFT A 565 DM 500 MB LOW WAS OVER NE NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED 1003
MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/SD BORDER AND DEEPENING A BIT
HAS WARM FRONT THRU CENTRAL PARTS OF IA/IL SOUTH OF I-74 AND COLD
FRONT WAS OVER FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WERE
OVER CENTRAL IA AND WESTERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER
CENTRAL IL WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH SSE WINDS LESS THAN 10
MPH. LIGHT FOG/HAZE AT LAWRENCEVILLE WITH VSBY OF 4 MILES SO FOG
NOT AS EXTENSIVE IN SE IL AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ESE ACROSS IA
TODAY AND TO SOUTH OF LAKE MI BY MIDDAY MONDAY. COLD FRONT TO
TRACK EAST OVER IL DURING TONIGHT AND INTO INDIANA MONDAY. HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER SOUTH OF LINCOLN FOR 15% RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...5% RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND 2% RISK OF A
TORNADO. MUCAPES ARE 1000-1500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AND WIND SHEAR IS LOWER THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND WARMEST OVER EASTERN IL
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH.
HAVE 60-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
IN THE EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO 30-50% MONDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
NE AREAS. THIS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF OVER IL AND SPC HAS 5%
RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN FAR SE IL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCE FURTHER SE IN KY AND THE TN VALLEY.
A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO REGION. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED QUICKER WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO IL TUE
AND WED AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMER TOO SO HAVE WARMER TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUE AND UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F WED.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT OVER
NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE QUAD CITIES. SHORT WAVE AND POSSIBLE MCS
RIDGING OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND
BRINGINGS HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO NORTHERN IL WITH SE IL
LIKELY STAYING DRY OR JUST SLIGHT CHANCES WED. LOW PRESSURE TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT DRIVING A COLD FRONT SE
THROUGH IL AND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO REGION WED
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU OVER EASTERN IL. MAY HAVE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL IL WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT. TEMPS COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL THU BUT WARM BACK UP BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO IL. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDGING OVER TOP OF
RIDGE COULD RETURN CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
AREAS NEXT WEEKEND.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1004 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
14Z/9AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1003MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS.
ALOFT...VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM IS EVIDENT AS CLOSED 500MB LOW
IS ANALYZED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AS WELL. TWO DISTINCT SHORT-WAVES
ARE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW...WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND THE SECOND FURTHER NORTHWEST
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER-MAKER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TODAY...AS IT INTERACTS
WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13Z HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AND GENERALLY KEEPS CONVECTION OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC AND
EARLY MODEL DATA...HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...EXCEPT LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ARRIVE ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NE KILX CWA AROUND CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM. HAVE THEREFORE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE
EVENING...THEN ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ZONE UPDATE HAS
ALREADY BEEN SENT.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU ABOUT 03Z...THEN PROBABILITIES
FOR MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM
SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINLY SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER BASED
CU (4000-5000 FEET) WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS
AFTN ACRS THE WEST...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST MORE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIP TONIGHT AS
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACRS THE MIDWEST AND THAT IS
WHEN WE MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING MVFR CIGS. IT APPEARS
THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE FROM 03Z TO
06Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM
10 TO 15 KTS WITH PSBL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACRS THE EAST THIS
AFTN. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM A SSW DIRECTION TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES ACRS THE REGION.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
00Z MODELS CONTINUE SLOWER TRENDS WITH WEATHER SYSTEM TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND TRENDED FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ALOFT A 565 DM 500 MB LOW WAS OVER NE NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED 1003
MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/SD BORDER AND DEEPENING A BIT
HAS WARM FRONT THRU CENTRAL PARTS OF IA/IL SOUTH OF I-74 AND COLD
FRONT WAS OVER FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WERE
OVER CENTRAL IA AND WESTERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER
CENTRAL IL WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH SSE WINDS LESS THAN 10
MPH. LIGHT FOG/HAZE AT LAWRENCEVILLE WITH VSBY OF 4 MILES SO FOG
NOT AS EXTENSIVE IN SE IL AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ESE ACROSS IA
TODAY AND TO SOUTH OF LAKE MI BY MIDDAY MONDAY. COLD FRONT TO
TRACK EAST OVER IL DURING TONIGHT AND INTO INDIANA MONDAY. HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER SOUTH OF LINCOLN FOR 15% RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...5% RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND 2% RISK OF A
TORNADO. MUCAPES ARE 1000-1500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AND WIND SHEAR IS LOWER THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND WARMEST OVER EASTERN IL
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH.
HAVE 60-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
IN THE EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO 30-50% MONDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
NE AREAS. THIS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF OVER IL AND SPC HAS 5%
RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN FAR SE IL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCE FURTHER SE IN KY AND THE TN VALLEY.
A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO REGION. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED QUICKER WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO IL TUE
AND WED AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMER TOO SO HAVE WARMER TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUE AND UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F WED.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT OVER
NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE QUAD CITIES. SHORT WAVE AND POSSIBLE MCS
RIDGING OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND
BRINGINGS HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO NORTHERN IL WITH SE IL
LIKELY STAYING DRY OR JUST SLIGHT CHANCES WED. LOW PRESSURE TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT DRIVING A COLD FRONT SE
THROUGH IL AND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO REGION WED
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU OVER EASTERN IL. MAY HAVE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL IL WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT. TEMPS COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL THU BUT WARM BACK UP BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO IL. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDGING OVER TOP OF
RIDGE COULD RETURN CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
AREAS NEXT WEEKEND.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
A COUPLE OF ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS ARE AHEAD AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER IOWA PUSHES TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THE LOW THE LOW WILL DEPART ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NW IOWA. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY PROPAGATING NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FOUND IN A TROUGH OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI.
GIVEN THESE TWO RADAR TRENDS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHOT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH AS THE PRECIP OVER KENTUCKY ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE SECOND SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES AFTER 00Z AS
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES.
GOOD LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS AN AREA OF SHRA
WITH TSRA PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
SATURATION...PARTICULARLY DURING BY 06Z TIME FRAME.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS...PARTICULARLY EARLY ON IN
THE EAST AS THE TSRA AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND ACROSS
THE AREA AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS N MONDAY. GFS
AND NAM DEPICT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA PUSHING THROUGH
AND EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD CYCLONIC
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS STEEP
LAPSE RATES BY 18Z MONDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. CAPE
REMAINS IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ONLY IN
THE LOWER 70S. THUS GIVEN THE FLOW...THE FORCING AND DAYTIME
HEATING SOME SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE TO THE MAVMOS POPS HERE GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THIS SET UP. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGHS AS GOOD CLOUD COVER COULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE PASSING LOW.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON MONDAY AND AS GOOD RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLE AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME UNREACHABLE. AGAIN THERE IS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OF INDIANA BY LATE TUESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
ONCE AGAIN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HINT EVEN WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
700MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 12C...WHICH IS USUALLY A PRETTY DARN GOOD
CAP. THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WARMER EACH DAY.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE AN UPPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKER SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS
BEING VERY QUICK TO DRY US OUT...WILL DROP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WEEKEND. BUT THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST.
FOR NOW LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER HPC SOLUTION.
WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST PERIODS...EXCEPT A TAD WARMER FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THERE WILL BE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 100000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MVFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH 05Z OR SO...THEN MVFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MORNING MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TAF
SITES IN THE FIRST QUARTER OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE LINES. TRIED TO TIME WITH TEMPOS THE
BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
CONVECTION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.
AFTER THE LINES MOVE THROUGH SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO MID MORNING MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN.
PREDOMINANT MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
IN. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 17Z OR SO.
OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10KT FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
A COUPLE OF ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS ARE AHEAD AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER IOWA PUSHES TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THE LOW THE LOW WILL DEPART ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NW IOWA. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY PROPAGATING NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FOUND IN A TROUGH OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI.
GIVEN THESE TWO RADAR TRENDS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHOT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH AS THE PRECIP OVER KENTUCKY ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE SECOND SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES AFTER 00Z AS
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES.
GOOD LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS AN AREA OF SHRA
WITH TSRA PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
SATURATION...PARTICULARLY DURING BY 06Z TIME FRAME.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS...PARTICULARLY EARLY ON IN
THE EAST AS THE TSRA AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND ACROSS
THE AREA AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS N MONDAY. GFS
AND NAM DEPICT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA PUSHING THROUGH
AND EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD CYCLONIC
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS STEEP
LAPSE RATES BY 18Z MONDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. CAPE
REMAINS IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ONLY IN
THE LOWER 70S. THUS GIVEN THE FLOW...THE FORCING AND DAYTIME
HEATING SOME SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE TO THE MAVMOS POPS HERE GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THIS SET UP. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGHS AS GOOD CLOUD COVER COULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE PASSING LOW.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON MONDAY AND AS GOOD RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLE AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME UNREACHABLE. AGAIN THERE IS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OF INDIANA BY LATE TUESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
ONCE AGAIN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HINT EVEN WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
700MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 12C...WHICH IS USUALLY A PRETTY DARN GOOD
CAP. THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WARMER EACH DAY.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE AN UPPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKER SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS
BEING VERY QUICK TO DRY US OUT...WILL DROP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WEEKEND. BUT THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST.
FOR NOW LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER HPC SOLUTION.
WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST PERIODS...EXCEPT A TAD WARMER FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THERE WILL BE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 092100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
DELAYED MENTION OF THUNDER AT KIND AS LATEST LIGHTNING CHART SHOWS
FEW IF ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT THE SITE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER THOUGH SO KEPT
VCSH MENTION. BROKEN LINE OF TSRA STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
AROUND 03Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR MOST OTHER TIMES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ACROSS KENTUCKY. RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION VCTS
AT KIND AND KBMG AFTER 21Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MID TO LATE EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME IMPROVEMENT
BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS CEILINGS RISE ABOVE 3 THOUSAND FEET.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WINDS WILL BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 12 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JH/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
257 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
A COUPLE OF ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS ARE AHEAD AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER IOWA PUSHES TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THE LOW THE LOW WILL DEPART ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NW IOWA. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY PROPAGATING NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FOUND IN A TROUGH OVER EASTERN MISSOURI.
GIVEN THESE TWO RADAR TRENDS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHOT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH AS THE PRECIP OVER KENTUCKY ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE SECOND SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES AFTER 00Z AS
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES.
GOOD LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS AN AREA OF SHRA
WITH TSRA PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
SATURATION...PARTICULARLY DURING BY 06Z TIME FRAME.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS...PARTICULARLY EARLY ON IN
THE EAST AS THE TSRA AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND ACROSS
THE AREA AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS N MONDAY. GFS
AND NAM DEPICT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA PUSHING THROUGH
AND EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD CYCLONIC
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS STEEP
LAPSE RATES BY 18Z MONDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. CAPE
REMAINS IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ONLY IN
THE LOWER 70S. THUS GIVEN THE FLOW...THE FORCING AND DAYTIME
HEATING SOME SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE TO THE MAVMOS POPS HERE GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THIS SET UP. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGHS AS GOOD CLOUD COVER COULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE PASSING LOW.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON MONDAY AND AS GOOD RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLE AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME UNREACHABLE. AGAIN THERE IS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OF INDIANA BY LATE TUESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
ONCE AGAIN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HINT EVEN WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
700MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 12C...WHICH IS USUALLY A PRETTY DARN GOOD
CAP. THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WARMER EACH DAY.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MAINTAING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE AN UPPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKER SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE
MCS MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS BEING VERY QUICK
TO DRY US OUT...WILL DROP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WEEKEND. BUT THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST.
FOR NOW LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER HPC SOLUTION.
WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST PERIODS...EXCEPT A TAD WARMER FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THERE WILL BE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 091800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR MOST OTHER TIMES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ACROSS KENTUCKY. RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION VCTS
AT KIND AND KBMG AFTER 21Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MID TO LATE EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME IMPROVEMENT
BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS CEILINGS RISE ABOVE 3 THOUSAND FEET.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 12 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
821 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MODELS ARE PLAYING CATCH UP THIS
EVENING. WSR-88D SHOWING A BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH WITH 15 TO 25 MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THIS BOUNDARY IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
ACCORDING TO THE OUTPUT. DEWPOINTS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS WELL.
AM CONCERNED THAT CONSIDERING OUR WARM DAY THAT WE COULD HAVE AN
ABNORMALLY WARM NIGHT CONSIDERING THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO BLENDED REALITY
AND THE RUC WHICH SEEMED TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE WIND FIELD
AND INCREASED THE WIND EARLIER. ALSO WARMED UP MINS AND MAY NOT
HAVE WARMED THEM UP ENOUGH. KEPT THE POPS INTACT SINCE THAT LOOKS
REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
FORM EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
IS PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-70. FURTHER EAST A DRY LINE WAS
LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY GOODLAND SOUTHEAST TO OAKLEY. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. AM ANTICIPATING A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. MEANWHILE THE DRY LINE MAY SERVE AS A SECOND SOURCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGER CINH IS EAST OF THE DRY LINE WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO FORM
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1000-2000J/KG OF MIXED 1KM CAPE. IF STORMS
DO FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE THEY WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG SINCE MEAN
STORM MOTION WILL PUSH THE STORMS EAST OF THE DRY LINE INTO HIGHER
CINH.
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES PAST THE KS/CO BORDER IT
FILLS WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO GO.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DECLINES.
TUESDAY THE HOT TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AS THE WARM FRONT FROM
MONDAY PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...PLACING THE TRI-STATE AREA
FURTHER INTO THE HOT AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL REACH/EXCEED RECORD
VALUES. FOR A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS SEE CLIMATE SECTION. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT THE DRY LINE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE DRY LINE STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY WINDS MAY
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR MORE INFORMATION. OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...PERIOD WILL START WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BREAKING DOWN PREVAILING RIDGE AXIS ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
AMPLIFYING RIDGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT BEFORE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE STABLE PROFILE EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM
POTENTIAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ALTHOUGH DEPARTING SFC HIGH REPRESENTS A COOLER AIR MASS...TDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT VALUES RESULTING IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY. CINH REMAINS STRONG HOWEVER SO CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS NOT REALLY HIGH...ALTHOUGH THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED
AS OVERALL AS FAIRLY LONG HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED AND GIVEN INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A PERIOD OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHWEST PORTION OF
LARGE H5 RIDGE AS IT BUILDS BACK OVER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY
WEEKEND BRINGING CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. TEMPS MAY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY...BUT AS PERIOD GOES ON POTENTIAL FOR
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING MCS RESULTING IN COOLER OUTFLOW LIMITS
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN HEAT THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT PRECIP THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ECMWF POINTING MORE TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND GFS THE
EVENING HOURS. WITH CWA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MODELS
SUGGESTING DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE 50-65 RANGE...THINK THUNDER
CHANCES ARE REASONABLE ALTHOUGH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES THINK
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE WILL SUFFICE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION...WIND
SHIFTS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE PRESENT WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FOR KGLD AND KMCK WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
CONTACTED THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY CO AND WICHITA
COUNTY...THE DRIEST PLACES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA...ASKING ABOUT THE
CONDITIONS OF THE GRASSES. BOTH SAID THE GRASSES ARE DRYING OUT
AND WILL BURN BUT ARE TOO GREEN FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH...BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS
SUCH WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE AND LET
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL SINCE WINDS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH WHILE THE FUELS ARE NOT AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY:
LOCATION YEAR RECORD
GOODLAND 2001 100
MCCOOK 1918 106
BURLINGTON 1918 102
HILL CITY 1953 106
COLBY 1918 104
TRIBUNE 2010 102
YUMA 1956 100
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...MK
FIRE WEATHER...JTL
CLIMATE...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A NORTHWEST FLOW JET STREAKED WAS IMPINGING ON WESTERN KANSAS
MID-AFTERNOON. PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WAS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR LOOP IN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK FROM
NEAR CHEYENNE, WY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA. THERE WAS
AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
INTRUSION. THIS PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF ACCAS AND ATTENDANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY MOIST WITH EARLY AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE MID-50S DEGF. THE FRONT AT 18Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR JOHNSON TO
SCOTT CITY TO HILL CITY...WITH A CONTINUED PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. AS
OF 18Z...THE ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE AT 18Z, 0-6KM
AGL BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH NEARLY 90-DEGREE
VEERING IN THE 850-500MB LAYER SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONVECTIVE MODE, DURATION, SEVERITY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE
"TONIGHT" PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. JUST ABOUT ALL SHORT-TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
20Z ALONG THE FRONT. THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL COHERENT CELLS
(PERHAPS SUPERCELLS) AS THE INITIAL MODE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CONCERN FOR HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE IN THE STRONGEST STORM STILL
LOOKS JUSTIFIED. ONCE AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IS GENERATED...THE
GROWTH UPSCALE WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION IN SEVERE THREAT FROM ONE
OF LARGE HAIL TO ONE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WHEN AND WHERE
EXACTLY THIS WILL TRANSITION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT BY 00Z THE
GENERAL THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE
QUASI-LINEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
PORTION OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA (ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183).
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY LAST A BIT LONGER
WITH SLIGHTLY A BIT MORE CAPPING TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM GROWING
UPSCALE TOO QUICKLY. NO CHANGE WAS REQUIRED IN THE POP/WX GRIDS
WITH 60-70 POPS STILL QUITE REASONABLE. STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE DDC FORECAST AREA (EAST AND SOUTH OF BARBER,
COMANCHE, PRATT COUNTIES) DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY:
DURING LATE NIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
VEER SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TO LOWER 60S ALONG INTERSTATE 70. 500 HPA RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 34
DEG C. HAVE USED ECMWF FOR TEMP GUIDANCE AND NUDGED TEMPS DOWN AS THIS
MODEL TYPICALLY OVERDOES A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE NEAR THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY:
A LEE INDUCED LOW/TROF WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THE 850 HPA WARM PLUME WILL ADVECT FARTHER EAST.
VALUES IN THE 32-36 DEG C RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SUPPORTS MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES (OBVIOUSLY MUCH HIGHER THAN 850 HPA)
IN THE LOW 100S. AGAIN, USED THE ECMWF AS A BASIS AND THE NUDGED DOWN
TO REDUCE THE IMPACTS FROM THE MODEL GENERATED SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG 591 DM RIDGE CONTINUES
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. LASTLY,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
WEAK FRONT MAKE TRAVERSE THE REGION WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT, SO NORTHERN ZONES MAY "COOL OFF" TO THE 90S. THURSDAYS
ONWARDS, THE 850 HPA WARM PLUME WILL REDEVELOP AND ADVECT EASTWARDS
ON FRIDAY. THIS SUPPORTS HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S. MINIMUMS
WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 4 MILES BY 10-12Z DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS A RESULT OF HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW DEWPOINTS, AND BREEZY/WINDY
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. RH`S COULD STILL BE AOB 15 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, BUT WINDS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 103 71 105 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 65 104 71 105 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 69 102 71 105 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 67 103 71 105 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 61 96 71 101 / 0 0 0 10
P28 67 97 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN WY AND WESTERN NE WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE AND KS TONIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL NE...SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KS. ONLY ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
KS AHEAD OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE RESULTING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED
SHOWERS HAVE KEPT THE AIRMASS MORE STABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 22Z AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND IN THE AREA OF STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING H5 TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE ONLY QUESTION IS TO THE DEGREE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF SFC BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS AS IF THE THREAT FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SPC
EMC RAP MODEL SHOWS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS...SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PNHDL. IF
THERE IS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE ELEVATED SHOWERS...THEN PERHAPS
SBCAPES MAY INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT
ALONG THE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ATTM...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS MAY BE GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AS THE H5
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO IA AND EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH MO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR EAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
IA WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES MAY
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW LOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
GARGAN
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEEKEND`S PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND
DEVELOPING INTO A BROAD RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS BROAD RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE...MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
SET UP AS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OR SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS SKIMMING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE DEPENDENT UPON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DIP FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD THOUGH IS WITH THE RISING
TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MIXING FROM 800-850MB DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
UPWARDS OF 21C-28C. ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AIDS IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION WITH 25C-28C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ALSO REMAINING QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SCT TSRA SHOULD BE NEAR KTOP AND KFOE AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
BUT BE EXITING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IFR VISIBILTIES SEEM LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20KT FOR MUCH OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING KEEP THE MENTION OF WET
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AFTER ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAS
BUILT UP DESPITE A THICK MID DECK. LATEST THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY PROGS FROM EXPERIMENTAL RAP MODEL ILLUSTRATE HIGHEST
SBCAPES ACROSS THE MTNS OF WV AND S OF I-70 IN SERN OH. HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR A FEW HRS AFTER SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT. FARTHER WEST IN OHIO...STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM
300-320K WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES JUMPING DRAMATICALLY DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF RW/TRW ACROSS HTS VCNTY WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 1Z. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE UP TO A HALF AN INCH. THE HALF
INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE CONFINED TO PHD - WOODSFIELD AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE FINALLY BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
LIFTED NORTH AND EAST LATE TUESDAY. WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SUPPLY
PROJECTED FROM THE GULF AND PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT VIA SEVERAL
VORT LOBES AND MID LEVEL JET...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE KEPT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST...THINK THAT AMPLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND THUS INSTABILITY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST
OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CHANCE POPS WERE
CONTINUED AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL
AND NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT
CROSSING MIDDAY TUESDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH POP NUMBERS/COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROVIDES FULL SUPPRESSION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PRECIPITATION WITH NW-SE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE PROVIDING FOCUS IN A MORE SHEARED
THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SERIES OF SHRTWVS IS GFS AND ECMWF SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY NGT AND
THURSDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE REGION. WITH FRONTAL POSITION
ANTICIPATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS SOLNS...HAVE RETAINED A
LIKELY POP PROGNOSIS...BUT ONLY FOR AREAS GENLY SOUTH OF I 76.
BLDG SFC HIGH SHOULD THEN PUSH THE FRONT SWD AND ENSURE A DRYING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY COOL TEMPS WL MODERATE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD CNTRL CONUS RIDGE EXPANDS/SHIFTS SLGTLY EWD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS FORECAST THRU THE EVE ALTHOUGH MID AND UPR LVL
CLDS WL CONT TO PLAGUE THE REGION AS WARM...MOIST ADVCTN CONTS IN
THE SECTOR TO THE EAST OF MIDWRN LOW PRES. CONDITION DETERIORATION
IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MRNG THOUGH AS THAT LOW RAPIDLY ADVNS AND
DVLPS RAIN OVR THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF
IFR FOR MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY BUT RAIN AND RESTRICTION
CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO INCRS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURDAY AS LOW
PRES AGAIN MOVS ACRS THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
801 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES EDGING OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. TO THE N...A WELL DEFINED
MID-LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG WRLY FLOW WAS NOTED BTWN
THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH A 110KT UPPER
JET ANALYZED BY THE RUC. THIS JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT SHIFTS THRU THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED THRU NRN ONTARIO
TODAY. TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA DEVELOPING OVER
WRN UPPER MI TODAY. SO FAR...NO THUNDER EVEN THOUGH LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE/MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 1000/500J/KG OVER THE
INTERIOR WRN UPPER MI.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA AND MAYBE YET ISOLD TSRA OVER WRN UPPER MI
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AFTER SHRA
DISSIPATE...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A TIME
TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP UNDER MID LEVEL DRYING AND
LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY WHERE SOME RAIN HAS FALLEN
THIS AFTN. LATER TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA. GIVEN
THAT SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY WITH FEATURE...IT APPEARS
CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT.
INTERESTING FCST FOR TUE WITH REGARD TO TSTM POTENTIAL. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON TIMING OF JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
FROM A LARGER SCALE STANDPOINT...THE WNW FLOW PATTERN IS ONE WHICH
OFTEN SUPPORTS SVR STORMS OVER UPPER MI. WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR TUE IS ON THE ORDER OF
60-70KT. FORTUNATELY...WITH MLCAPE UP AROUND 500J/KG FROM THE NAM
AND ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FROM THE GFS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND FORCING WILL
BE PASSING THRU EARLIER IN THE DAY AND MOSTLY LIKELY NOT IN CONCERT
WITH PEAK HEATING. THE NAM REPRESENTS THE SLOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM
ON THE PROGRESSION TUE WHILE THE GFS IS ON THE FASTER SIDE. THE GEM
OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH TIMING AND WILL BE FAVORED. PLAN WILL
BE TO CARRY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WNW TO ESE TUE.
BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL/SE WHERE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE MI WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FORCING. PRONOUNCED
MIDLEVEL DRYING SURGING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING AN END TO
SHRA/TSRA FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE W. IF FOR SOME REASON PROGRESSION IS
SLOWER TUE AND INSTABILITY BUILDS HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...
THERE MAY BE A FEW SVR STORMS TO DEAL WITH OVER THE SCNTRL/SE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR E AND SE CORNERS OF THE
CWA.
THE CURRENT LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL OPEN UP AND SWING AROUND
THE SET RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S...AND
MOVE TO SD/NE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LINE UP WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE SWINGING AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER NE CANADA ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN
WITH ALL OF THAT...UPPER MI MAY END UP DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DID ADD A JUST A FEW SHOWERS FOR FAR E UPPER MI /FIRE
ZONES/ THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB
TEMPS OFF THE ECMWF STAY AROUND 8C FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL BACK INTO THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EVEN IN THE UPPER 50S F RIGHT ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
WITH THE 500MB TROUGHS SHIFTING TO OUR E AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM TX THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...EXPECT NW FLOW TO RETURN
ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS UP IN THE AIR...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST...LINGERING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO
NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE...WITH MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
ONGOING FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EARLIER 10/00Z
RUN OF THE ECMWF AND 10/12Z RUN OF THE GFS BOTH PAINTED A GOOD
AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA...WHICH WHEN BLENDED RESULTED IN HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THEN OF COURSE THE 01/12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN MAINLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FOG FORMATION APPEARS LIKELY UNDER
WEAK HIGH PRES...LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME PATCHY HIGHER
CLOUDS. DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W MAY BRING VCNTY
SHRA TO KCMX LATE TONIGHT AND TO KIWD/KSAW TUE MORNING. INCREASE IN
CLOUDS SHOULD CAUSE RADIATION FOG TO DISSIPATE AT KCMX LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE AT
KIWD/KSAW FOR FOG TO DISSIPATE. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 15KT OR LESS THRU
THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20KT MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT/THU IN ADVANCE OF HIGH
PRES BUILDING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED
TODAY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME FOG
PATCHES OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. IF SO...FOG PATCHES WILL
SHIFT TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. THE PATCHY
FOG MAY THEN LINGER THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVER NW IA
DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS ND AND ADJACENT SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER SW CANADA. SHORTWAVE OVER IA
HAS MANAGED TO SWING A BAND OF SHRA N INTO WRN UPPER MI TODAY. SHRA
HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND PROBABLY SOME
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEW ENGLAND. ERN EDGE OF SHRA AREA HAS BATTLED
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS AT THE LOW/MID LEVELS PER 12Z KGRB/KAPX
SOUNDINGS. IT APPEARS SPRINKLES HAVE REACHED AS FAR E AS MEMONINEE
AND DICKINSON COUNTIES TODAY.
WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ERN EDGE OF PCPN BAND FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO DRIER AIR MASS...WILL SHOW A
DIMINISHING POP TREND OVER THE W DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
SPRINKLES MAY GET AS FAR E AS WRN MARQUETTE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...WITH
SHORTWAVE OVER IA DRIFTING ESE INTO IL TONIGHT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS
NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY FORCING FOR PCPN OVER UPPER MI. IN
FACT...PER QVECTORS...MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN
DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING OVER UPPER MI BTWN THE WAVE MOVING
INTO IL AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND THAT WILL
BE MOVING INTO FAR NE MN/NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH
OF THE FCST AREA IN AN AREA OF LITTLE/NO DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT.
SO...FCST TONIGHT WILL RETAIN THE IDEA OF HIGHER POPS OVER THE NW...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD ISLE ROYALE...AND LOW CHC/SCHC POPS ELSEWHERE...
EXCEPT FOR THE E WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT UNDER LINGERING
MID/UPPER RIDGING. A NUMBER OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW REMNANTS
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WRN LWR MI ROTATING NW INTO SCNTRL UPPER
MI THIS EVENING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT DOES HAPPEN.
SHORTWAVE THAT REACHES NE MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD MON. WAVE WILL SUPPORT BETTER PCPN CHANCES ACROSS
WRN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO PORTIONS OF NW UPPER MI MON MORNING.
MUCH OF THE FORCING WITH WAVE WILL THEN SHIFT N AND E OF THE AREA AS
THE AFTN WEARS ON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR AFTN
CONVECTION. NAM SHOWS MLCAPE INCREASING TO 150-500J/KG IN THE AFTN
WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. THE GFS HAS SIMILAR VALUES...BUT ITS INSTABILITY IS CONFINED
TO JUST THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TAIL END
OF DEPARTING DEEP LAYER FORCING STILL SKIRTING THE AREA IN THE
AFTN...AVBL INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR A MENTION OF
SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTN (CHC POPS OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF AND SCHC E). CONVECTION OVER THE W SHOULD BE FURTHER AIDED BY
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. OPTED TO INCLUDE SCHC THUNDER MENTION OVER
THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO
ONTARIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER TEXAS WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS IT IS...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
RIDGING AND A PASSING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TUESDAY. THOUGH THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND/PWATS UP TO 115 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED BY THIS RIDGE OVER LAND. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS PRIMARILY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SO CHANCE POPS ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
COULD POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL 00Z.
AS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. EXPECT MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THE RIDGE BOUNDARY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH. THIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER
MICHIGAN HOWEVER...LIKELY OVER CENTRAL/LOWER WI. THE UPPER LOW THAT
BROUGHT THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH UPPER MI ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION...OVER PRIMARILY ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WITH
RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVER UPPER MI.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET.
WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE ON THURSDAY AND MIXING TO
AROUND 950MB IN MOST LOCATIONS EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. REGIONS CLOSEST TO THE LAKES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES.
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST INCREASES WITH AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
EXPERIENCE FULL DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH...AND WITH BETTER MIXING TO
THE 850MB LEVEL/TEMPS AROUND 12-14C AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CROSS EASTWARD
INTO QUEBEC...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA/DEWPOINTS
NEARING 60F/ AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
BAND OF -SHRA MOVING N FROM WI WILL AFFECT KIWD THIS AFTN AND KCMX
LATER THIS AFTN. UNDER E TO SE FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AT THE LOW-LEVELS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR DESPITE PCPN.
WITH RAINFALL WETTING THE GROUND MORE SO AT KIWD...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS/FOG TO FORM TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FROM A DOWNSLOPING SE DIRECTION...POTENTIAL
APPEARS MINIMAL. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND THERE
MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES LATER THIS AFTN. EARLY MON AFTN...DAYTIME
HEATING MAY BEGIN TO POP A FEW SHRA...ESPECIALLY AROUND KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
AS LOW PRES OVER NW IA DRIFTS E...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND
20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO AROUND
25KT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR W THRU THIS EVENING DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. WITH SOME RAIN FALLING OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
RETURN AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR TUE THRU FRI. MUCH OF
THAT PERIOD WILL SEE WINDS AOB 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHRTWV RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE OF A
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NCENTRAL PLAINS DOWNWIND OF
AN UPR RDG OVER THE WRN CONUS. WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG DOMINATING THE
GREAT LKS UNDER THE UPR RDG/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...THERE IS QUIET
OVERNGT WX OVER THE CWA WITH MOCLR SKIES. HI CLDS ON THE NE FLANK OF
THE SFC LO OVER NW IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SHRTWV ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS AS
FAR NE AS SE MN/FAR SW WI WHERE H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS MAXIMIZED.
AXIS OF MORE WDSPRD RA CORRESPONDS WELL TO AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SHOWN
BY THE NAM.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS.
TDAY...MOST OF THE RECENT NUMERICAL RUNS SHOW SHRTWV NOW IN THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 00Z MON. AS A RESULT...SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT LKS...WITH CONTINUED 12HR H5 HGT RISES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA FARTHER NE OF THE SHRTWV. GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SUPPORTING AREA
OF SHRA IN SE MN SPREADING SLOWLY TO THE N AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
FAR WRN CWA THIS AFTN. SO OPTED TO RETAIN THE GOING FLAVOR OF THE
GOING FCST SHOWING POPS ARRIVING OVER THE W IN THE AFTN. BUT DID
TRIM BACK ON EWD EXTENSION OF THESE POPS TOWARD THE H5 HGT RISES AND
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ZERO QPF OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. ALSO
TENDED TO RAISE FCST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR E
WHERE THERE WL BE MORE SUNSHINE. MIXING TO H8 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING AOA 75 AT ERY. MORE CLD COVER SHOULD RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY OVER THE W.
TNGT...CLOSED LO OVER IOWA IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E INTO ILLINOIS...SO
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY FORCING FOR PCPN OVER
UPR MI WITH UPR RDG AXIS PERSISTING INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI ON THE
NRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO
RIDE EWD IN THE FAST WLY FLOW ALF BTWN THE WRN RDG AND A CLOSED LO
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU NRN
MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO OVERNGT...WITH SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR IMPACTING MAINLY THE NW CWA TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. SO
MAINTAINED HIER POPS IN THIS AREA BUT TRIMMED BACK PCPN CHCS OVER
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA DUE TO ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING UNDER
MORE PERSISTENT UPR RDG.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN EARLY THIS WEEK FEATURES TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH SHALLOW RIDGES DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK MAIN TROUGHING WILL BE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT CONUS AND OVER WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST CONUS.
TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL THE WEATHER THIS WEEK TAKES A BREAK FROM THE COOL AND ACTIVE
WEATHER SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK. OVERALL...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHORES...TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL IF NOT ABOVE.
OTHER THAN SMALL/ISOLD CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...EXPECT A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF UPR MICHIGAN.
SPLIT PATTERN IN LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT BEGAN TO EMERGE 24 HOURS
AGO IS NOW PRESENT IN UPSTREAM WV LOOP AND MODELS. AT DAYBREAK
MONDAY ONE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS IL/IN WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
IN BTWN WILL BE LIFTING OVER FAR NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR DESTINED TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN FORCING FM A QG
STANDPOINT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR BUT THERE STILL IS
HINT THAT TAIL OF THE IN BTWN WAVE MAY GRAZE UPR MICHIGAN DURING
PEAK HEATING OF AFTN. EXTENT OF HEATING IS QUESTIONABLE AS THERE
MAY BE FAIR AMOUNT OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS IN VCNTY ENHANCED BY SSE
SFC FLOW ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF GREAT LAKES. WHERE THERE IS
LESS CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS WENT FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 AND EVEN INTO
LOWER 70S. OTHERWISE...UPR 60S SHOULD DO. THE WAVE AND SUBTLE
SFC-H85 CONVERGENCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED OVR CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
A LULL EXPECTED...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT...MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE SHORTWAVE COULD BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...JUST HARD TO
TELL RIGHT NOW. ATTN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL BE ON SHORTWAVE IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT EMERGING OUT OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. ECMWF/GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE
OVR CNTRL LK SUPERIOR AND CNTRL CWA BY 18Z. SHARP H7 DRYING NOTED IN
WAKE OF THE WAVE. STARTING TO THINK THAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR THEY
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING WEST AND MAINLY ONLY INTO EARLY-MID
AFTN CNTRL AND EAST. 925-850MB WINDS MORE WESTERLY WITH LOCALIZED
LAKE BREEZES MAY HELP ENHANCE POP-UP SHRA POTENTIAL IN THE EAST.
THOUGH GFS AND NAM SFC DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT LOWER 60S
ARE LIKELY WAY OVERDONE...ECMWF SHOWS MORE REASONABLE DWPNTS IN
THE 40S AND STILL HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THAT AREA DUE TO
THE SHORTWAVE. SLIGHT CHANCES COVER SITUATION WELL BOTH IN TERMS
OF EXPECTED COVERAGE AND ACTUAL CHANCE OF IT OCCURRING AT ALL. QUITE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING MAY END UP DRY ALL AREAS DUE TO THE DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE WAVE. COOLEST TEMPS ON TUESDAY OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH MORE PREVALENT LAKE MODIFIED REGIME. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE LAKE COOLING.
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STAY WELL TO SOUTH OF
UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN...ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT AND
IN THE VCNTY OF H85 WARM FRONT. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA OR
SPRINKLES ON EDGE OF HIGHER H7 DWPNT...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE
FAR SOUTH CWA. DRY ELSEHWERE WITH READINGS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
BUT STAYING IN THE 60S OVER THE NORTH DUE TO STRONGER LAKE BREEZE
SINCE GRADIENT FLOW IS ALREADY LIGHT NORTHERLY. MID CLOUDS AND ANY
LGT SHRA WILL BE FINISHED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ENTIRE SYSTEM DIPS
FARTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM UPR MICHIGAN.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLEST TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR. INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION WILL BE IN THE 70S. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
FOR FRIDAY WITH LGT SOUTH RETURN FLOW. STILL ENOUGH OF ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO KEEP IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORES COOLER. TEMPS INLAND
SHOULD MAKE RUN WELL INTO THE 70S WITH GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DUE TO
DEPARTING RIDGE. POSSIBLE WARMEST SPOTS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR MAY
CRACK 80 DEGREES.
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVES EAST OUT OF ROCKIES.
USED CONSENSUS POPS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
BAND OF -SHRA MOVING N FROM WI WILL AFFECT KIWD THIS AFTN AND KCMX
LATER THIS AFTN. UNDER E TO SE FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AT THE LOW-LEVELS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR DESPITE PCPN.
WITH RAINFALL WETTING THE GROUND MORE SO AT KIWD...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS/FOG TO FORM TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FROM A DOWNSLOPING SE DIRECTION...POTENTIAL
APPEARS MINIMAL. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND THERE
MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES LATER THIS AFTN. EARLY MON AFTN...DAYTIME
HEATING MAY BEGIN TO POP A FEW SHRA...ESPECIALLY AROUND KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCREASE TO E UP TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON AS A LO PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BRINGS A SHARPER PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOCALLY
HIER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W...WHERE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. WEAK
HI PRES WILL RETURN AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR TUE THRU
THU. WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
107 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NOW OVER IOWA WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO MON MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS. VERY INTENSE RAIN MAY
BE ONGOING FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.
FOR DTW...WHILE THE EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARD
SUNSET...THE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN AN EASTERLY WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS METRO ON MONDAY...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PROLONGED INTENSE RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1014 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
UPDATE...
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME SEMBLANCE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS OFF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER WRN IOWA. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TO ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING TO BOOST
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. THERE IS A RATHER HEALTHY RIBBON OF MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION STRETCHING FROM ERN ND ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL
LOWER MI. THE FORCING IS MUCH STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THE STATE
WHERE THERE IS NOW A WIDE BAND OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM NRN WI TO
ERN ND. THE MID LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING
MID CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTUALLY LOOKING QUITE
LOW TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS IOWA TODAY...MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL BUILD A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER SE MI. THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWED A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB WHICH WILL
ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER WELL INLAND. THE MOST RECENT NAM AND RUC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDING OVER
WRN LOWER MI. THUS...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER SURGE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD 00Z. THIS
WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COUPLED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH THE AIRMASS POTENTIAL CERTAINLY 80 DEGREES BASED ON 850
MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 12 C. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE A FACTOR COMING
OFF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE/LAKE ST CLAIR. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL FAVOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES...WITH FLINT AREA LIKELY COMING IN AS ONE OF THE WARMER
READINGS DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THE 500 MB LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. A
GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE 6-12Z MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOT SEEN
ARRIVING UNTIL CLOSE TO 12Z...GIVING ONE PAUSE WITH THE HIGH LIKELY
POPS (SEE 00Z REGIONAL GEM)...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-59. THEN
AGAIN...IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z GFS...THERE IS NOTHING TO WORRY
ABOUT...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WOULD BE IN ORDER. LOOKING AT THE MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS (500 MB) COMPARED TO RAOBS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...DON`T HAVE OVERWHELMING CONFIDENCE IN EITHER OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE 00Z EURO GIVES SUPPORT TO THE GFS...SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
MONDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES ENHANCED LIFT/FORCING. WILL NOT
BE MAKING ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
ONCE THIS STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...THE PATTERN RETURNS
TO A MORE OR LESS QUIET ONE. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN
THE WEST/NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE BY
THAT TIME...CHANCES SEEM PRETTY HIGH THAT A BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIP SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD
ASSUME THAT THIS GENERAL TREND WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED NORTH/SOUTH
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PROGRESSING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO
BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD...KEEPING THE NORTHERN EXTENT LIMITED.
AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60
DEGREE RANGE.
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS....AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE
REGION...SO WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1014 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME SEMBLANCE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS OFF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER WRN IOWA. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TO ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING TO BOOST
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. THERE IS A RATHER HEALTHY RIBBON OF MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION STRETCHING FROM ERN ND ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL
LOWER MI. THE FORCING IS MUCH STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THE STATE
WHERE THERE IS NOW A WIDE BAND OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM NRN WI TO
ERN ND. THE MID LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING
MID CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTUALLY LOOKING QUITE
LOW TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS IOWA TODAY...MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL BUILD A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER SE MI. THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWED A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB WHICH WILL
ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER WELL INLAND. THE MOST RECENT NAM AND RUC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDING OVER
WRN LOWER MI. THUS...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER SURGE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD 00Z. THIS
WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 636 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
//DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO
HELP LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH MID CLOUDS HANGING
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY AND SLOWLY LOWERING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTS. A MUCH BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...LEADING TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING EAST
TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COUPLED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH THE AIRMASS POTENTIAL CERTAINLY 80 DEGREES BASED ON 850
MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 12 C. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE A FACTOR COMING
OFF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE/LAKE ST CLAIR. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL FAVOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES...WITH FLINT AREA LIKELY COMING IN AS ONE OF THE WARMER
READINGS DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THE 500 MB LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. A
GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE 6-12Z MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOT SEEN
ARRIVING UNTIL CLOSE TO 12Z...GIVING ONE PAUSE WITH THE HIGH LIKELY
POPS (SEE 00Z REGIONAL GEM)...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-59. THEN
AGAIN...IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z GFS...THERE IS NOTHING TO WORRY
ABOUT...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WOULD BE IN ORDER. LOOKING AT THE MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS (500 MB) COMPARED TO RAOBS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...DON`T HAVE OVERWHELMING CONFIDENCE IN EITHER OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE 00Z EURO GIVES SUPPORT TO THE GFS...SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
MONDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES ENHANCED LIFT/FORCING. WILL NOT
BE MAKING ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
ONCE THIS STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...THE PATTERN RETURNS
TO A MORE OR LESS QUIET ONE. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN
THE WEST/NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE BY
THAT TIME...CHANCES SEEM PRETTY HIGH THAT A BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIP SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD
ASSUME THAT THIS GENERAL TREND WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED NORTH/SOUTH
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PROGRESSING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO
BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD...KEEPING THE NORTHERN EXTENT LIMITED.
AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60
DEGREE RANGE.
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS....AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE
REGION...SO WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHRTWV RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE OF A
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NCENTRAL PLAINS DOWNWIND OF
AN UPR RDG OVER THE WRN CONUS. WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG DOMINATING THE
GREAT LKS UNDER THE UPR RDG/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...THERE IS QUIET
OVERNGT WX OVER THE CWA WITH MOCLR SKIES. HI CLDS ON THE NE FLANK OF
THE SFC LO OVER NW IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SHRTWV ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS AS
FAR NE AS SE MN/FAR SW WI WHERE H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS MAXIMIZED.
AXIS OF MORE WDSPRD RA CORRESPONDS WELL TO AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SHOWN
BY THE NAM.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS.
TDAY...MOST OF THE RECENT NUMERICAL RUNS SHOW SHRTWV NOW IN THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 00Z MON. AS A RESULT...SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT LKS...WITH CONTINUED 12HR H5 HGT RISES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA FARTHER NE OF THE SHRTWV. GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SUPPORTING AREA
OF SHRA IN SE MN SPREADING SLOWLY TO THE N AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
FAR WRN CWA THIS AFTN. SO OPTED TO RETAIN THE GOING FLAVOR OF THE
GOING FCST SHOWING POPS ARRIVING OVER THE W IN THE AFTN. BUT DID
TRIM BACK ON EWD EXTENSION OF THESE POPS TOWARD THE H5 HGT RISES AND
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ZERO QPF OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. ALSO
TENDED TO RAISE FCST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR E
WHERE THERE WL BE MORE SUNSHINE. MIXING TO H8 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING AOA 75 AT ERY. MORE CLD COVER SHOULD RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY OVER THE W.
TNGT...CLOSED LO OVER IOWA IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E INTO ILLINOIS...SO
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY FORCING FOR PCPN OVER
UPR MI WITH UPR RDG AXIS PERSISTING INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI ON THE
NRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO
RIDE EWD IN THE FAST WLY FLOW ALF BTWN THE WRN RDG AND A CLOSED LO
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU NRN
MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO OVERNGT...WITH SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR IMPACTING MAINLY THE NW CWA TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. SO
MAINTAINED HIER POPS IN THIS AREA BUT TRIMMED BACK PCPN CHCS OVER
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA DUE TO ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING UNDER
MORE PERSISTENT UPR RDG.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN EARLY THIS WEEK FEATURES TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH SHALLOW RIDGES DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK MAIN TROUGHING WILL BE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT CONUS AND OVER WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST CONUS.
TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL THE WEATHER THIS WEEK TAKES A BREAK FROM THE COOL AND ACTIVE
WEATHER SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK. OVERALL...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHORES...TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL IF NOT ABOVE.
OTHER THAN SMALL/ISOLD CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...EXPECT A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF UPR MICHIGAN.
SPLIT PATTERN IN LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT BEGAN TO EMERGE 24 HOURS
AGO IS NOW PRESENT IN UPSTREAM WV LOOP AND MODELS. AT DAYBREAK
MONDAY ONE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS IL/IN WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
IN BTWN WILL BE LIFTING OVER FAR NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR DESTINED TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN FORCING FM A QG
STANDPOINT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR BUT THERE STILL IS
HINT THAT TAIL OF THE IN BTWN WAVE MAY GRAZE UPR MICHIGAN DURING
PEAK HEATING OF AFTN. EXTENT OF HEATING IS QUESTIONABLE AS THERE
MAY BE FAIR AMOUNT OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS IN VCNTY ENHANCED BY SSE
SFC FLOW ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF GREAT LAKES. WHERE THERE IS
LESS CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS WENT FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 AND EVEN INTO
LOWER 70S. OTHERWISE...UPR 60S SHOULD DO. THE WAVE AND SUBTLE
SFC-H85 CONVERGENCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED OVR CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
A LULL EXPECTED...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT...MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE SHORTWAVE COULD BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...JUST HARD TO
TELL RIGHT NOW. ATTN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL BE ON SHORTWAVE IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT EMERGING OUT OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. ECMWF/GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE
OVR CNTRL LK SUPERIOR AND CNTRL CWA BY 18Z. SHARP H7 DRYING NOTED IN
WAKE OF THE WAVE. STARTING TO THINK THAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR THEY
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING WEST AND MAINLY ONLY INTO EARLY-MID
AFTN CNTRL AND EAST. 925-850MB WINDS MORE WESTERLY WITH LOCALIZED
LAKE BREEZES MAY HELP ENHANCE POP-UP SHRA POTENTIAL IN THE EAST.
THOUGH GFS AND NAM SFC DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT LOWER 60S
ARE LIKELY WAY OVERDONE...ECMWF SHOWS MORE REASONABLE DWPNTS IN
THE 40S AND STILL HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THAT AREA DUE TO
THE SHORTWAVE. SLIGHT CHANCES COVER SITUATION WELL BOTH IN TERMS
OF EXPECTED COVERAGE AND ACTUAL CHANCE OF IT OCCURRING AT ALL. QUITE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING MAY END UP DRY ALL AREAS DUE TO THE DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE WAVE. COOLEST TEMPS ON TUESDAY OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH MORE PREVALENT LAKE MODIFIED REGIME. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE LAKE COOLING.
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STAY WELL TO SOUTH OF
UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN...ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT AND
IN THE VCNTY OF H85 WARM FRONT. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA OR
SPRINKLES ON EDGE OF HIGHER H7 DWPNT...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE
FAR SOUTH CWA. DRY ELSEHWERE WITH READINGS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
BUT STAYING IN THE 60S OVER THE NORTH DUE TO STRONGER LAKE BREEZE
SINCE GRADIENT FLOW IS ALREADY LIGHT NORTHERLY. MID CLOUDS AND ANY
LGT SHRA WILL BE FINISHED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ENTIRE SYSTEM DIPS
FARTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM UPR MICHIGAN.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLEST TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR. INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION WILL BE IN THE 70S. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
FOR FRIDAY WITH LGT SOUTH RETURN FLOW. STILL ENOUGH OF ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO KEEP IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORES COOLER. TEMPS INLAND
SHOULD MAKE RUN WELL INTO THE 70S WITH GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DUE TO
DEPARTING RIDGE. POSSIBLE WARMEST SPOTS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR MAY
CRACK 80 DEGREES.
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVES EAST OUT OF ROCKIES.
USED CONSENSUS POPS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF MID CLDS AND SOME -SHRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT
IWD AND CMX THIS AFTN ON ERN EDGE OF DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH LO
PRES IN THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH AN ESE LLVL FLOW MAINTAINING DRY
LLVLS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCREASE TO E UP TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON AS A LO PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BRINGS A SHARPER PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOCALLY
HIER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W...WHERE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. WEAK
HI PRES WILL RETURN AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR TUE THRU
THU. WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHRTWV RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE OF A
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NCENTRAL PLAINS DOWNWIND OF
AN UPR RDG OVER THE WRN CONUS. WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG DOMINATING THE
GREAT LKS UNDER THE UPR RDG/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...THERE IS QUIET
OVERNGT WX OVER THE CWA WITH MOCLR SKIES. HI CLDS ON THE NE FLANK OF
THE SFC LO OVER NW IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SHRTWV ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS AS
FAR NE AS SE MN/FAR SW WI WHERE H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS MAXIMIZED.
AXIS OF MORE WDSPRD RA CORRESPONDS WELL TO AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SHOWN
BY THE NAM.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS.
TDAY...MOST OF THE RECENT NUMERICAL RUNS SHOW SHRTWV NOW IN THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 00Z MON. AS A RESULT...SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT LKS...WITH CONTINUED 12HR H5 HGT RISES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA FARTHER NE OF THE SHRTWV. GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SUPPORTING AREA
OF SHRA IN SE MN SPREADING SLOWLY TO THE N AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
FAR WRN CWA THIS AFTN. SO OPTED TO RETAIN THE GOING FLAVOR OF THE
GOING FCST SHOWING POPS ARRIVING OVER THE W IN THE AFTN. BUT DID
TRIM BACK ON EWD EXTENSION OF THESE POPS TOWARD THE H5 HGT RISES AND
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ZERO QPF OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. ALSO
TENDED TO RAISE FCST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR E
WHERE THERE WL BE MORE SUNSHINE. MIXING TO H8 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING AOA 75 AT ERY. MORE CLD COVER SHOULD RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY OVER THE W.
TNGT...CLOSED LO OVER IOWA IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E INTO ILLINOIS...SO
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY FORCING FOR PCPN OVER
UPR MI WITH UPR RDG AXIS PERSISTING INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI ON THE
NRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO
RIDE EWD IN THE FAST WLY FLOW ALF BTWN THE WRN RDG AND A CLOSED LO
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU NRN
MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO OVERNGT...WITH SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR IMPACTING MAINLY THE NW CWA TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. SO
MAINTAINED HIER POPS IN THIS AREA BUT TRIMMED BACK PCPN CHCS OVER
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA DUE TO ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING UNDER
MORE PERSISTENT UPR RDG.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN EARLY THIS WEEK FEATURES TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH SHALLOW RIDGES DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK MAIN TROUGHING WILL BE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT CONUS AND OVER WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST CONUS.
TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL THE WEATHER THIS WEEK TAKES A BREAK FROM THE COOL AND ACTIVE
WEATHER SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK. OVERALL...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHORES...TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL IF NOT ABOVE.
OTHER THAN SMALL/ISOLD CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...EXPECT A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF UPR MICHIGAN.
SPLIT PATTERN IN LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT BEGAN TO EMERGE 24 HOURS
AGO IS NOW PRESENT IN UPSTREAM WV LOOP AND MODELS. AT DAYBREAK
MONDAY ONE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS IL/IN WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
IN BTWN WILL BE LIFTING OVER FAR NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR DESTINED TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN FORCING FM A QG
STANDPOINT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR BUT THERE STILL IS
HINT THAT TAIL OF THE IN BTWN WAVE MAY GRAZE UPR MICHIGAN DURING
PEAK HEATING OF AFTN. EXTENT OF HEATING IS QUESTIONABLE AS THERE
MAY BE FAIR AMOUNT OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS IN VCNTY ENHANCED BY SSE
SFC FLOW ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF GREAT LAKES. WHERE THERE IS
LESS CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS WENT FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 AND EVEN INTO
LOWER 70S. OTHERWISE...UPR 60S SHOULD DO. THE WAVE AND SUBTLE
SFC-H85 CONVERGENCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED OVR CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
A LULL EXPECTED...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT...MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE SHORTWAVE COULD BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...JUST HARD TO
TELL RIGHT NOW. ATTN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL BE ON SHORTWAVE IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT EMERGING OUT OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. ECMWF/GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE
OVR CNTRL LK SUPERIOR AND CNTRL CWA BY 18Z. SHARP H7 DRYING NOTED IN
WAKE OF THE WAVE. STARTING TO THINK THAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR THEY
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING WEST AND MAINLY ONLY INTO EARLY-MID
AFTN CNTRL AND EAST. 925-850MB WINDS MORE WESTERLY WITH LOCALIZED
LAKE BREEZES MAY HELP ENHANCE POP-UP SHRA POTENTIAL IN THE EAST.
THOUGH GFS AND NAM SFC DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT LOWER 60S
ARE LIKELY WAY OVERDONE...ECMWF SHOWS MORE REASONABLE DWPNTS IN
THE 40S AND STILL HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THAT AREA DUE TO
THE SHORTWAVE. SLIGHT CHANCES COVER SITUATION WELL BOTH IN TERMS
OF EXPECTED COVERAGE AND ACTUAL CHANCE OF IT OCCURRING AT ALL. QUITE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING MAY END UP DRY ALL AREAS DUE TO THE DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE WAVE. COOLEST TEMPS ON TUESDAY OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH MORE PREVALENT LAKE MODIFIED REGIME. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE LAKE COOLING.
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STAY WELL TO SOUTH OF
UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN...ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT AND
IN THE VCNTY OF H85 WARM FRONT. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA OR
SPRINKLES ON EDGE OF HIGHER H7 DWPNT...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE
FAR SOUTH CWA. DRY ELSEHWERE WITH READINGS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
BUT STAYING IN THE 60S OVER THE NORTH DUE TO STRONGER LAKE BREEZE
SINCE GRADIENT FLOW IS ALREADY LIGHT NORTHERLY. MID CLOUDS AND ANY
LGT SHRA WILL BE FINISHED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ENTIRE SYSTEM DIPS
FARTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM UPR MICHIGAN.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLEST TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR. INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION WILL BE IN THE 70S. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
FOR FRIDAY WITH LGT SOUTH RETURN FLOW. STILL ENOUGH OF ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO KEEP IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORES COOLER. TEMPS INLAND
SHOULD MAKE RUN WELL INTO THE 70S WITH GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DUE TO
DEPARTING RIDGE. POSSIBLE WARMEST SPOTS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR MAY
CRACK 80 DEGREES.
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVES EAST OUT OF ROCKIES.
USED CONSENSUS POPS AT THIS POINT. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS A
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...GENERALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TODAY. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. INCLUDED SOME VCSH AT
KIWD AS THE FAR WRN CWA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCREASE TO E UP TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON AS A LO PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BRINGS A SHARPER PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOCALLY
HIER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W...WHERE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. WEAK
HI PRES WILL RETURN AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR TUE THRU
THU. WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NRN LAKE MI INTO NRN LWR MI. AREA OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI TODAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR W AND CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTN (LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SBCAPE OF 100-200J/KG). TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS DIGGING
INTO THE WRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A W COAST RIDGE. THIS TROF WILL
BRING THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUN.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLD SHRA OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...FCST AREA
TONIGHT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO THE E
OF THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING THRU THE PLAINS. WITH RIDGE PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A TREND TO
MCLEAR SKIES. LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES
GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEGREE TO WHICH JET STREAK IS CAUSING SHORTWAVE TO DIG
INTO THE WRN PLAINS CURRENTLY...MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN WILL LIKELY END UP SW OF HERE SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
EASTERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY TO HAVE A
MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE IN THE WEATHER HERE. MODELS THAT WERE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN RECENT RUNS WITH PCPN DRIVING INTO UPPER MI SUN HAVE
ALL BACKED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN WHICH SUPPORTS THE ABOVE
THINKING. WHILE ONE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE OVER IA SUN...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NE MN...SPREADING
AN ARC OF WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WRN UPPER MI.
WITH ZONE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THAT AREA AS WELL...THIS WAVE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI SUN AFTN. SO...
PLAN FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE IS TO CUT BACK ON PCPN ADVANCEMENT INTO
UPPER MI SUN. WILL KEEP ROUGHLY THE E HALF DRY THRU THE AFTN WITH
HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE W TRENDING TO LIKELY FAR W TOWARD KIWD. WITH
LESS AND LATER PCPN ARRIVAL...BUMPED TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD. IN
THE INTERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. THICKER
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FAR W.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A CONTINUED SLOW MOVING AND MESSY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK BLOCKING DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND
CANADA.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...IT SEEMS THE MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
CHANGING A DECENT AMOUNT FROM DAY TO DAY...WITH THE LAST SUITE
REALLY CUTTING BACK PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE EAST HALF. HAVE CONTINUED
TO USE OF THE GFS AS THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH IT OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE GENERAL PATTERN HAS A WEAK REX
BLOCK...WITH A SHORTWAVE/NEARLY CLOSED LOW TACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO OVER HUDSON BAY. ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SPLIT TO BECOME A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING TROUGH AND AN EASTWARD MOVING
CLOSED LOW. THE LOW WILL TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE CWA TO PROVIDE
ANY GOOD SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL CLIP THE WESTERN CWA WITH DECENT H7 FGEN AND MID-LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO MISS OUT ONCE AGAIN ON
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN. HAVE DROPPED PRECIP WORDING COMPLETELY FROM THE
FAR EAST...AND CUT BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. ONLY
CHANCE OF SEEING A VERY ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WOULD BE NEAR
MENOMINEE...SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER PREVIOUSLY ALONG
THE WI BORDER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
AN INCOMING UPPER JET WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWA. AFTER A WEAK AND ELONGATED UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSH EAST MONDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING ALOFT FOR
THE WEST. WITH NO SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND RECENT RAINFALL...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN AND PATCHY
FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICK THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEPART...SO DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO
DETAILED IN SPECIFIC AREAS. FOR NOW...ADDED WORDING OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE CLEARING LOOKS TO
BE MORE LIKELY. ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO A MORE NW WIND
DIRECTION FOR THE WEST HALF...AND EVENTUALLY THE EAST HALF. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE FORMATION ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL FOR LOCATIONS PRONE TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW.
TUESDAY...WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT ON SECOND GLANCE...A 100KT UPPER JET STREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST OVER UPPER MI SHOULD GIVE SOME SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE LEFT
EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGIONS. EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EXTRA LIFT
UNDER THE JET WILL TAP INTO THE LITTLE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AT THE SFC TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SOME MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A QUICK-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE PICKED UP BY AN ELONGATED
TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. WHILE A BOUT OF MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASSES OVER
UPPER MI ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE LAYER. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO ALL BUT SOME MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WI BORDER SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF THE CWA.
ONCE AGAIN...ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE
TO GENERATE EVEN MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS GIVEN A DEEP DRY LAYER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRY TO
RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH THIS TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. FOR NOW...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD
EXIST TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS A
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...GENERALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TODAY. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. INCLUDED SOME VCSH AT
KIWD AS THE FAR WRN CWA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. THEN...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING E TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN NIGHT
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20KT SUN INTO EARLY MON. COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS UP TO 25KT OVER FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BTWN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND MN N SHORE SUN AFTN/EVENING.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS E...ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE THRU THU...RESULTING IN WINDS UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM.../NOW - MONDAY/
THE FOCUS IS ON THE WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HOW THAT WILL CONTINUE AND LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT I
HAVE AND CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS
FAR TIMING OF THE PCPN THROUGH THIS EVENING GOES SINCE THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL.
AT 300PM/2000Z...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NEW YORK INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED NEAR NW IOWA...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. A TROUGH BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE SASKATCHEWAN
LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO THE IOWA LOW. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WAS SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE IOWA LOW AND THE
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE WERE EASTERLY WINDS OF 5
TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE SE AND FAR N FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S DUE TO THE RAIN AND
COOL WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LOW IN NW IOWA WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT....WHILE THE TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
TROUGH. THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GENERALLY
LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
NEGLIGIBLE LATER TONIGHT...MAKING FOG LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND. THIS
HELP KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHLAND DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NW FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD BE
RELATED TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. I HAVE
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. I RAISED THE
FORECAST IN SOME AREAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT I THINK IT COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF THE NORTHLAND
GETS ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. I SIDED A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE MAY BE MORNING FOG AND
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW WELL IT CLEARS CONSIDERING LITTLE WIND TO
HELP MIX IT OUT. HOWEVER...IT AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHLAND
WILL FINALLY GET SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER FOR SUCH A LONG TIME.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE A
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE A SHORT WAVE WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SWEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY PROFILES WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PWATS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO NRN
ZONES...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND GONE WITH A DRY FCST OR JUST
MENTION OF SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT A H50 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES IN EXTENDED LOOK TO TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. HAVE KEPT A
DRY FCST WED/THURS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON. IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH FOG AND -DZ WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
/INCLUDING KHYR/ WHERE CIGS MAINLY IN THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORY WILL
BE FOUND. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WISCONSIN WITH
LOWER VSBYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 71 53 76 / 70 20 10 10
INL 50 72 53 75 / 70 20 40 10
BRD 51 75 56 79 / 30 10 10 10
HYR 55 77 55 80 / 60 20 10 10
ASX 51 71 50 76 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
931 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN COVERING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IS
STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. I UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH MID EVENING TO BETTER
REFLECT THE TIMING AND CERTAINTY OF THIS. I LEANED ON THE
LATEST HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE DOING
VERY WELL WITH TIMING THIS MORNING. THUNDER WAS KEPT OUT OF THE
FORECAST BECAUSE THE MODELS GIVE LITTLE TO NO INDICATION OF ANY
INSTABILITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS.
RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH VFR
INITIALLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE INL WHERE THE RAIN WILL TAKE
UNTIL NEAR 18Z TO ARRIVE. AS MORE MODERATE AREAS OF RAIN MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM S TO N AFTER 06Z FOLLOWED BY AREAS OF BR AND IFR
CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TIMING AND
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE NORTHERN EXTENT TO THE RAIN
EXTENDS FROM THE TWIN CITIES NORTHWEST BORDER OF MN AND THE
DAKOTAS. BASED ON PRESENT MOVEMENT...THE RAIN IS PROGGED INTO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AROUND BRD...PINE CITY AROUND 10-11Z AND
INTO THE TWIN PORTS AROUND 14Z. IT SHOULD REACH THE IRON RANGE
AROUND 18Z AND THE BORDERLAND AROUND 21-22Z. THE AREA ALONG A TWIN
PORTS TO WALKER LINE WILL GET 0.33 TO 0.70 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH OTHER AREAS GETTING LESS. IT DID LEAVE
IN THE THUNDER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE AREA. ALSO PUT IN AREAS OF FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE MOISTURE FORM THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST BEGINNING
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
TODAY BUT WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY NIGHT
AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FA. THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE SHORT WAVE AND HAVE HIGHER POPS...LOWER POPS
FURTHER S. DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY...HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDER
MENTION. THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SFC RIDGING TO
CROSS THE FA WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS.
LINGERED A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT. THE HIGH LINGERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. THE ECMWF IS TRYING TO GENERATE SOME
PCPN...BUT FORCING IS MINIMAL AND HAVE IGNORED THE ECMWF. ON
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES THROUGH MN AND HAVE SOME POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE. RIDGING RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MN ON FRIDAY...A LONG WAVE
TROF REACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON INTRODUCING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN TIER
OF THE FA CLOSEST TO THE TROF. THE TROF MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE FRONT DEPARTS
ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE
HIGH ARRIVES AND HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION AS THE INSTABILITY
IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 47 67 52 / 80 60 20 20
INL 67 50 71 52 / 80 70 20 30
BRD 60 52 73 55 / 90 50 10 10
HYR 63 51 73 54 / 90 60 20 10
ASX 62 47 67 49 / 80 70 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1128 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MN HOLDS...AND IF IT CONTINUES
THE TREND OF DRIER MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM...KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IA/MN THRU 6Z. COMPLEX OF
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACROSS FAR SW MN HAS ERODED SOME OF THE DRIER AIR
THRU THE EARLY AFTN TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HOLD ONTO LIKELY FOR
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL AFT 3Z/09...AND MOST
LIKELY AFT 6-9Z BASED ON THE LATEST RAP TRENDS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NE OF MPX
FA...THE SFC LOW HAS WEAKENED COMPARED TO SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
AGO...AND IS MORE IN LINE OF THE EC THAT HAD THE SFC/UPPER LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA A FEW DAYS AGO ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND TSRA CHC/S
TO A MINIMUM...OR UNTIL AFT 18Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR FAR EASTERN MN/WC WI. DUE TO THE SLOWER AND
WEAKER SOLUTION OF THIS WX SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION AMTS MAY BE
LOWER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
UPPER LOW AFFECTING MN/WI TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND STILL BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH TROUGH
AXIS STILL ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MONDAY MORNING. 12Z DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM40...GEM AND ECMWF...KEEP A VERY WEAK
GRADIENT ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT THE WESTERNMOST
COUNTIES. 15Z SREF ALSO SUGGESTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. WITH RAIN FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING...THINK THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE WITH LITTLE REASON FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR ON
MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPMENT...WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NOT REALLY HAPPENING
UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON MONDAY.
ONCE THE LOW DRIFTS BY...SYSTEMS BEGIN ARRIVING AT A FASTER PACE.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN LATER ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER.
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LONGEST PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HAVE LOWER 50S
FOR NOW BUT COULD IMAGINE SEEING SOME UPPER 40S. THERE IS SOME HINT
A WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS MN TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
RIDGE REACHING THE DAKOTAS. BUT THIS SHOULD JUST PRODUCE SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CLOUDS...WILL STICK WITH 50S FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR UPPER RIDGE TO BE OVER WESTERN MN IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT IT IS RATHER FLAT. A PAIR OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRST ONE
WILL DAMPEN BUT THE SECOND ONE ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH. BUT MN/WI SHOULD STILL BE IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS AS MAIN LOW TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
INDIANA. DOES NOT REALLY LOOK LIKE A SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT FOR
OUR AREA.
TROUGH DEPARTS WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES. ECMWF...GEM AND GFS GENERALLY BRING IT OVER MN/WI
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING
FLATTENED AS LEAD SHORT WAVE FROM NEXT DEEP WESTERN TROUGH MOVES IN.
THUS WILL HAVE MORE POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z TAF. MORE INTENSE RAIN IS ON
ITS WAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONCE THAT SETS UP MVFR CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MVFR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN LATE IN THE
MORNING...WITH IFR EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR BY THE NOON
HOUR TOMORROW...JUST HARD TO BE TOO CONFIDENT IN SPECIFIC TIMING
ON WHEN THE WORST CIGS/VIS ARRIVES. SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR WILL
LINGER UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...
THE CEILINGS AND ANY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO ARRIVE...BUT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HAVE ARRIVED OR BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE AIRPORT BY SUNRISE. THE WALL OF WATER SHOWING UP
ON RADAR TO OUR SOUTH IS HEADED THIS WAY. WE THINK THERE COULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS BECOME
LIGHTER OR DIMINISH. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE AIRPORT WILL LIKELY
BE 1500 FT OR LOWER FOR A CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF ONCE
IT SETS IN. THIS MEANS LESS THAN OPTIMAL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
EVENING TRAVEL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...VFR BY AFTN. WND NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-7 KT.
WED...VFR. CHANCE OF TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KT
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2013
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Southwest flow aloft continues to bring moisture
and instability across southwest Montana. With the airmass
destabilizing during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms have,
and continue, to develop over the southwest mountains and then track
north and east. The models, with HRRR corroboration, indicate the
area of precipitation after midnight should reach along a Helena to
Great Falls to Lewistown line. However, the 00z Nam is backing off a
bit on the areal coverage of the precipitation. Temperatures look
reasonable and should be warmer than last night due to more clouds.
Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 2355Z.
Southwest flow aloft continue to bring moisture and instability to
southwest Montana. The airmass has destabilized with scattered
thunderstorms developing across the area, mainly south of a KDLN to
KBZN line. Thunderstorms should end by 06z with rain showers
persisting through the night. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR
conditions in the vicinity of showers.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 303 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2013
Tonight through Thursday...Upper level low poised off the coast
of BC along with a weaker low over CA will dominate the weather
pattern tonight and Tuesday. The current zonal flow over MT will
give way to SW flow as a upper level ridge builds over the area
and remains in place through the period. Will continue to see a
chance of thunderstorms over the SW tonight. This is due to the
northern shield of monsoonal-type moisture brought northward by
the CA low. By tonight the low over CA gets caught up in the upper
level SW flow and moves over the ID/MT/WY area and pumps more
moisture over the area. Thus increased pops over much of the area
from Beaverhead to Fergus Counties. By Tuesday late morning this
area expands northward over much of the area...and have increased
pops for much of SW and central MT. Expect a continued threat of
thunderstorms through the period. By Thursday the threat of severe
thunderstorms is greatest over eastern portions of the area as MU
cape is over 3500 J/Kg over Fergus and BLAINE Counties. Potential
heavy rain...large hail...and damaging winds are possible Thursday
late morning into the early afternoon. Temperatures should be near
normal through Wednesday and slightly cooler on Thursday. Mercer
Thursday night through Tuesday...Models in good agreement with
unstable southwest flow over the region into Friday. With unstable
air and enhanced dynamics, showers and scattered thunderstorms are
possible through the long term. Precipitation details vary but most
of Central Montana has a fair chance of seeing some rain. Periods of
heavier precipitation look possible later in the day on Wednesday
and Thursday. Thursday a major trough will move in over the
Continental Divide with minor secondary troughs moving into Montana
from the southwest. A cold front associated with the system will
move through Montana Thursday further enhancing any convective
activity that day. Models remain in good agreement with lifting the
trough to the northeast into Southern Canada early Saturday. Weak
high pressure looks build back in from the southeast for Sunday and
Monday. A slightly cooler air mass will be over the region keeping
temperatures around low seasonal average through the week before
warming by next weekend. Winds also look to remain mostly light with
Friday possibly being a windy day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The areal flood warning for Hill, Blaine, and Fergus Counties has
been canceled as has the point forecast for the Milk River near
Harlem. A flood warning continues for the Big Sandy Creek near
Havre and Clear Creek near Chinook. The latest river forecasts
continue to show a slow decrease during the first half of this
week. However, thunderstorms, some possibly with locally heavy
rainfall, are in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday and may
affect already swollen rivers and streams.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 70 48 71 / 30 70 60 50
CTB 44 67 45 70 / 10 50 50 40
HLN 50 75 48 74 / 40 70 60 50
BZN 46 76 44 75 / 50 80 60 50
WEY 41 72 37 70 / 50 70 50 40
DLN 49 76 46 73 / 60 70 50 40
HVR 48 69 49 75 / 10 70 60 60
LWT 48 68 46 72 / 50 70 60 60
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning until further notice for Big Sandy Creek near Havre,
Clear Creek near Chinook.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1057 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2013
UPDATE TO AVIATION
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming.
Westerly flow aloft will continue overnight allowing for generally
dry and stable conditions. The exception being weak short wave
energy depicted as a cloud shield on satellite imagery over southern
Alberta. Calgary was reporting virga on their 02z observation. Both
the RUC and HRRR analysis develop an area of isolated showers along
the international boundary after 04z and have included this on the
weather and pop grids. Temperatures overnight look good. Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 0457Z.
VFR conditions will continue over the area at least through Sunday
evening. A weak disturbance moving east along the Montana/Canada
will bring areas of mid level cloudiness with isolated showers to
the Hi-Line (including KHVR) through around 09Z. Otherwise, skies
will be mostly clear with light winds. However, another weak
disturbance will move along the Canadian border again after 18Z,
bringing similar conditions as this evening to the Hi-Line area
(including both KCTB and KHVR). The airmass across far southwest
Montana will also become unstable between 21Z and 03Z, but any
convective activity will likely stay south and east of the KBZN
terminal. Coulston
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 255 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2013
Today through Monday...An upper level ridge over the Pacific
Northwest will be flattened as the jet stream pushes east through
British Columbia tonight. As this transition takes place, a
northwesterly flow aloft over Montana will back to the west and
remain in place through Sunday night. During this time frame it
appears that the weather over Montana will be mostly quiet with
seasonal temperatures. However, there will be a slight chance for
a shower or thunderstorm near the Canadian border tonight through
Sunday morning, but most activity will likely remain north of the
border. On Sunday afternoon, the airmass will also become slightly
unstable near Yellowstone Park with an isolated shower or
thunderstorm possible through the evening hours. Shortwave energy
moves across the Great Basin on Monday with flow aloft backing to
the southwest and the airmass across southwest Montana become
unstable. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the mountains of southwest Montana by mid afternoon with
convection moving to the northeast into central Montana by late
afternoon. There is a potential that a few of these storms may
become borderline strong with gusty winds. mpj
Monday night through Saturday...Models in good agreement early in
period with high pressure ridge being flattened to the south as
low pressure system tracks across southern Canada. meanwhile,
second low pressure trough strengthening as it digs down along
Pacific Northwest coast. This low begins to work its way inland
Wednesday night and Thursday putting Montana under a more unstable
southwest flow with smaller, embedded weather systems being
steered into Montana. With some unstable air and enhanced dynamics
of weather systems, afternoon and evening showers with some
thunderstorms are possible each day through the period. Solutions
as to the where and how much for precipitation vary widely but
indicate most of CWA has a fair chance for some showers...with the
potential for heavier precipitation in some locations particularly
central and north central. Cold front associated with the trough
currently expected to push through Montana Thursday and this could
be an active weather day. At this point model solutions start to
deviate...GFS wants to lift center of low to the northeast into
Alberta while continuing to strengthen. ECMWF slowly tracks center
of low into Oregon and Idaho as it gradually weakens. Overall, a
slightly cooler air mass will be over the region keeping
temperatures slightly cooler through the remainder of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Small streams and creeks remain high and out of their banks across a
large portion of central and north central Montana. Areal flood
warnings will continue for Hill/Blaine/Fergus Counties. Point flood
warnings remain in effect for three locations: Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
These points are expected to remain near or above flood stage into
next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 78 46 76 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 45 74 42 75 / 10 10 0 10
HLN 49 82 51 81 / 0 0 0 20
BZN 43 84 47 82 / 0 0 0 30
WEY 37 76 43 78 / 0 10 10 30
DLN 45 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 40
HVR 48 78 47 78 / 10 10 10 10
LWT 45 76 46 74 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning through Monday morning for Blaine, Fergus, and Hill
Counties.
Flood Warning until further notice for Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1004 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REALLY CRANK UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND NOSE INTO OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT CONVECTION
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH QPF OUTPUT IS WEAK. BELIEVE THAT 850MB JET OF
50 KTS LATER TONIGHT NOSING IN CERTAINLY WARRANTS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EVEN THOUGH WE ARE GENERALLY QUIET
ACROSS OUR CWA AS OF 10 PM. MUCAPE VALUES AT 06Z ARE GENERALLY
OVER 2000 J/KG AND THUS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AND SOME COULD BE CLOSE TO SEVERE. WILL ALSO TWEAK THE HWO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
ALOFT: A VERY SUMMERY LOOK WITH THE MAIN BELT OF FLAT WESTERLIES
OVER THE NRN USA. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS MOVING OUT OF NM IN TO W TX
WITH ITS RIDGE EXTENDING N INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. 24 HR HGT RISES
FROM 12Z/SUN TO 12Z THIS MRNG WERE 130-160 M AT LBF/OAX. VERY WARM
MID-LVL AIR HAS ALSO ADVECTED INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AS WINDS HAVE
BACKED TO SW BEHIND THE 850-700 MB RIDGE AXIS. MEANWHILE...THE
CUT-OFF LOW THAT WAS OFF SRN CA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WAS INLAND
OVER CA. IT WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROF THAT WILL BEGIN MOVING THRU
THE RIDGE TOMORROW. THE MAIN CORE OF THE HGT FALLS AND MID-LVL
COOLING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL TUE NGT. HOWEVER...
SFC: A STALLED COOL FRONT /SEPARATING CONTINENTAL POLAR FROM
CONTINENTAL TROPICAL AIR/ EXTENDED FROM CO-KS-MO. A COOL FRONT WAS
ALSO ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. THE APPROACH OF THE PV ANOMALY
SHOULD LIFT THE STALLED INTO NEB TNGT...WHILE THE ROCKIES COOL FRONT
PRESSES IN AND MERGES WITH IT TOMORROW.
THRU SUNSET: SUNNY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRROSTRATUS.
DWPTS ARE IN THE MID 60S OVER CNTRL KS...JUST S OF THE FRONT.
MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION ARE SHOWING TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER NW KS AND ARRIVING INTO N-CNTRL KS LATER TNGT. SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE INCREASING S OF THE FRONT AND VIS SAT
SHOWS TOWERS GOING UP NEAR GLD. TYPICALLY THESE TSTMS DONT MAKE IT
INTO OUR FCST AREA. EVEN IF THEY DONT THE ORPHANED ANVILS COULD
RESULT IN A HEATBURST OR TWO.
TNGT: OVERALL DRY BUT CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM IS
POSSIBLE. A VERY MILD NGT! TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AT
MIDNGT. EXPECT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS EVEN IF THEY DONT
MAKE IT HERE.
TUE: SUNNY AND HOT! TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 100S OVER WRN KS AND ERN
CO AT 20Z. THAT WILL BE HERE TOMORROW...TO THE S OF THE TRI-CITIES
WE BELIEVE. AN ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM MAY DEVELOP AFTER 5 PM. MAY NOT
PRODUCE MUCH RAIN BUT COULD RESULT IN BRIEF BUT POTENT WIND GUSTS
IN DEEPLY MIXED PROFILE.
RAISED TEMPS A LITTLE...PRIMARILY E OF THE TRI-CITIES.
CAVEAT: THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BACKS WINDS TO 170-210 DEG.
HAVE GONE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH KEEPS WINDS VEERED TO 150 DEG N
OF I-80. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT THEN THE 100F+ HEAT BLASTS ALL THE
WAY N TO INCLUDE ORD/FULLERTON/OSCEOLA AND OUR DWPTS AND RH WILL
END UP BUSTING TOO HIGH. GENERALLY FEELING IS THAT VEERED WINDS
WILL KEEP THE DWPTS HIGHER N-NE OF THE TRI-CITIES /61-65F/. THIS
MODEL UNCERTAINTY LOWERS FCST CONFIDENCE.
WIND: AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR OSBORNE/MITCHELL COUNTIES
FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER IN DEEP MIXING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
AFTER A TOASTY DAY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...QUESTION
REMAINS ON WHETHER CONVECTING MAY FIRE AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND A DRY LINE ADVANCES EAST FM WESTERN KANSAS. MAIN FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION SHLD BE TO OUR NORTH ON NORTHERN EDGE OF CAP AND IN
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE. THAT BEING SAID...JUST CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME CHC FOR STORMS IN VCNTY OF TRIPLE POINT AS SFC LOW
RIDES BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING SE NEB
BY WED MORNING. ANY CONVECTION IN THIS AREA WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN GO...A STRONG STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE...IN INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE MIXES OUT IN AFTN. AGAIN THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/POTENTIAL FOR STORMS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH IN
VCNTY OF WARM FRONT ON EDGE OF CAP...NORTH OF WARM FRONT IN BETTER
INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS.
THE COOL FRONT CLEARS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WE ARE LOOKING
AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES
IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THE BRIEF HEAT SPELL...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK TO THE 80S TO NEAR 90F FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AGAIN. MODELS ATTEMPT TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE WAA REGIME BUT NOT JUMPING ON THIS
JUST YET. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
HIGH PLAINS ALONG SFC TROUGH WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE
AND ROLL EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLVL
JET.
AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AGAIN WORKS TO BREAK
DOWN RIDGE WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
THE HRRR FORECAST MODEL DOES SHOW SOME SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF HIGH
PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS MAKING THEIR WAY EAST INTO THE KGRI VICINITY
LATER TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS A VERY
LOW END CHANCE AND THUS WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. THE
THE WIND WILL BACK TO A MORE EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING
AND THEN VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW. THESE ARE RATHER NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS...WHICH
ALSO INCLUDE A STRENGTHENING WIND TOMORROW AS WE GO THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT AFTERNOON HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ018-019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
712 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
ALOFT: A VERY SUMMERY LOOK WITH THE MAIN BELT OF FLAT WESTERLIES
OVER THE NRN USA. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS MOVING OUT OF NM IN TO W TX
WITH ITS RIDGE EXTENDING N INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. 24 HR HGT RISES
FROM 12Z/SUN TO 12Z THIS MRNG WERE 130-160 M AT LBF/OAX. VERY WARM
MID-LVL AIR HAS ALSO ADVECTED INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AS WINDS HAVE
BACKED TO SW BEHIND THE 850-700 MB RIDGE AXIS. MEANWHILE...THE
CUT-OFF LOW THAT WAS OFF SRN CA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WAS INLAND
OVER CA. IT WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROF THAT WILL BEGIN MOVING THRU
THE RIDGE TOMORROW. THE MAIN CORE OF THE HGT FALLS AND MID-LVL
COOLING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL TUE NGT. HOWEVER...
SFC: A STALLED COOL FRONT /SEPARATING CONTINENTAL POLAR FROM
CONTINENTAL TROPICAL AIR/ EXTENDED FROM CO-KS-MO. A COOL FRONT WAS
ALSO ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. THE APPROACH OF THE PV ANOMALY
SHOULD LIFT THE STALLED INTO NEB TNGT...WHILE THE ROCKIES COOL FRONT
PRESSES IN AND MERGES WITH IT TOMORROW.
THRU SUNSET: SUNNY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRROSTRATUS.
DWPTS ARE IN THE MID 60S OVER CNTRL KS...JUST S OF THE FRONT.
MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION ARE SHOWING TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER NW KS AND ARRIVING INTO N-CNTRL KS LATER TNGT. SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE INCREASING S OF THE FRONT AND VIS SAT
SHOWS TOWERS GOING UP NEAR GLD. TYPICALLY THESE TSTMS DONT MAKE IT
INTO OUR FCST AREA. EVEN IF THEY DONT THE ORPHANED ANVILS COULD
RESULT IN A HEATBURST OR TWO.
TNGT: OVERALL DRY BUT CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM IS
POSSIBLE. A VERY MILD NGT! TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AT
MIDNGT. EXPECT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM TSTMS EVEN IF THEY DONT
MAKE IT HERE.
TUE: SUNNY AND HOT! TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 100S OVER WRN KS AND ERN
CO AT 20Z. THAT WILL BE HERE TOMORROW...TO THE S OF THE TRI-CITIES
WE BELIEVE. AN ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM MAY DEVELOP AFTER 5 PM. MAY NOT
PRODUCE MUCH RAIN BUT COULD RESULT IN BRIEF BUT POTENT WIND GUSTS
IN DEEPLY MIXED PROFILE.
RAISED TEMPS A LITTLE...PRIMARILY E OF THE TRI-CITIES.
CAVEAT: THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BACKS WINDS TO 170-210 DEG.
HAVE GONE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH KEEPS WINDS VEERED TO 150 DEG N
OF I-80. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT THEN THE 100F+ HEAT BLASTS ALL THE
WAY N TO INCLUDE ORD/FULLERTON/OSCEOLA AND OUR DWPTS AND RH WILL
END UP BUSTING TOO HIGH. GENERALLY FEELING IS THAT VEERED WINDS
WILL KEEP THE DWPTS HIGHER N-NE OF THE TRI-CITIES /61-65F/. THIS
MODEL UNCERTAINTY LOWERS FCST CONFIDENCE.
WIND: AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR OSBORNE/MITCHELL COUNTIES
FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER IN DEEP MIXING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
AFTER A TOASTY DAY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...QUESTION
REMAINS ON WHETHER CONVECTING MAY FIRE AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND A DRY LINE ADVANCES EAST FM WESTERN KANSAS. MAIN FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION SHLD BE TO OUR NORTH ON NORTHERN EDGE OF CAP AND IN
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE. THAT BEING SAID...JUST CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME CHC FOR STORMS IN VCNTY OF TRIPLE POINT AS SFC LOW
RIDES BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING SE NEB
BY WED MORNING. ANY CONVECTION IN THIS AREA WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN GO...A STRONG STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE...IN INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE MIXES OUT IN AFTN. AGAIN THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/POTENTIAL FOR STORMS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH IN
VCNTY OF WARM FRONT ON EDGE OF CAP...NORTH OF WARM FRONT IN BETTER
INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS.
THE COOL FRONT CLEARS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WE ARE LOOKING
AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES
IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THE BRIEF HEAT SPELL...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK TO THE 80S TO NEAR 90F FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AGAIN. MODELS ATTEMPT TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE WAA REGIME BUT NOT JUMPING ON THIS
JUST YET. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
HIGH PLAINS ALONG SFC TROUGH WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE
AND ROLL EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLVL
JET.
AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AGAIN WORKS TO BREAK
DOWN RIDGE WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
THE HRRR FORECAST MODEL DOES SHOW SOME SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF HIGH
PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS MAKING THEIR WAY EAST INTO THE KGRI VICINITY
LATER TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS A VERY
LOW END CHANCE AND THUS WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. THE
THE WIND WILL BACK TO A MORE EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING
AND THEN VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW. THESE ARE RATHER NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS...WHICH
ALSO INCLUDE A STRENGTHENING WIND TOMORROW AS WE GO THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT AFTERNOON HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SWRN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE NAM...SREF AND RAP MODEL ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE FAR WESTERN
PERIPHERY FOR BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY UNTIL 15Z TODAY. HAVE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT AFFECTED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WIND. THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALSO BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH TO THE EAST THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WESTERN SANDHILLS LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. TWEAKED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH INPUT FROM THE NAM12 SFC TEMPS WHICH IS ALSO VERY CLOSE
TO A MET/MAV BLEND.
TIME SECTIONS SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT 5 TO 15 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES OVER ILLINOIS LATE
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE FOUR
CORNER REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT TO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SOUTHWEST RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN/HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY...BRINGING UNSEASONABLE WARM /HOT/ TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR SW NEB WILL PUSH CLOSE TO IF NOT REACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS...THE REST OF WESTERN NEB SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 90S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER NORTH CENTRAL...MID AND UPPER 80S...WITH MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORING FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST IS DRY AT THIS TIME AS TEMPS
ALOFT PROVIDE A STRONG CAP. THE CONCERN IS PW/S WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH...ABOUT 75 PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...AND ACCORDING TO THE NAM
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG LL JET THAT NOSES INTO THE CWA. THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS NOT SHOWING A FAVORABLE JET...THUS THE
DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE DRY LINE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. SW NEB
LIKELY WILL TOP 100 WITH ALL BUT PART OF NORTHERN ZONES TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. RH LEVELS TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE
SHOULD EASILY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER IT IS FAIRLY GREEN
AND WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS...NOT A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A STRONG CAP TO THE SOUTH.
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER
SHOULD STILL SEE SW NEB WARM INTO THE 90S...ELSEWHERE 80S. THEN A
COOL FRONT TO PASS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MODELS IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE RESULTING SLIGHT COOL DOWN WHICH
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD LATER IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGE DRIFTS EAST WITH SOME SHORT WAVES TO RIDE THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...RIDGE RIDERS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE MINOR EXCEPTION BEING AT KONL WHERE
MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY ERODING...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NO RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE 18-19Z TIMEFRAME TODAY.
OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN TO THE AVIATION COMMUNITY IS THE
PRESENCE OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH KLBF AND KVTN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 10KTS AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
553 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SWRN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE NAM...SREF AND RAP MODEL ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE FAR WESTERN
PERIPHERY FOR BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY UNTIL 15Z TODAY. HAVE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT AFFECTED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WIND. THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALSO BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH TO THE EAST THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WESTERN SANDHILLS LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. TWEAKED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH INPUT FROM THE NAM12 SFC TEMPS WHICH IS ALSO VERY CLOSE
TO A MET/MAV BLEND.
TIME SECTIONS SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT 5 TO 15 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES OVER ILLINOIS LATE
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE FOUR
CORNER REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT TO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SOUTHWEST RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN/HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY...BRINGING UNSEASONABLE WARM /HOT/ TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR SW NEB WILL PUSH CLOSE TO IF NOT REACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS...THE REST OF WESTERN NEB SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 90S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER NORTH CENTRAL...MID AND UPPER 80S...WITH MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORING FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST IS DRY AT THIS TIME AS TEMPS
ALOFT PROVIDE A STRONG CAP. THE CONCERN IS PW/S WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH...ABOUT 75 PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...AND ACCORDING TO THE NAM
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG LL JET THAT NOSES INTO THE CWA. THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS NOT SHOWING A FAVORABLE JET...THUS THE
DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE DRY LINE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. SW NEB
LIKELY WILL TOP 100 WITH ALL BUT PART OF NORTHERN ZONES TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. RH LEVELS TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE
SHOULD EASILY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER IT IS FAIRLY GREEN
AND WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS...NOT A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A STRONG CAP TO THE SOUTH.
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER
SHOULD STILL SEE SW NEB WARM INTO THE 90S...ELSEWHERE 80S. THEN A
COOL FRONT TO PASS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MODELS IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE RESULTING SLIGHT COOL DOWN WHICH
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD LATER IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGE DRIFTS EAST WITH SOME SHORT WAVES TO RIDE THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...RIDGE RIDERS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
STRATUS REMAINS AS FAR WEST AS KICR AND KONL...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND
CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHWEST UNTIL
14Z- 15Z...THEN NORTHWEST 12G18KT THROUGH 21Z...THEN DIMINISHING TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SWRN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE NAM...SREF AND RAP MODEL ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE FAR WESTERN
PERIPHERY FOR BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY UNTIL 15Z TODAY. HAVE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT AFFECTED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WIND. THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALSO BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH TO THE EAST THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WESTERN SANDHILLS LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. TWEAKED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH INPUT FROM THE NAM12 SFC TEMPS WHICH IS ALSO VERY CLOSE
TO A MET/MAV BLEND.
TIME SECTIONS SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT 5 TO 15 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES OVER ILLINOIS LATE
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE FOUR
CORNER REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT TO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SOUTHWEST RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN/HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY...BRINGING UNSEASONABLE WARM /HOT/ TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR SW NEB WILL PUSH CLOSE TO IF NOT REACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS...THE REST OF WESTERN NEB SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 90S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER NORTH CENTRAL...MID AND UPPER 80S...WITH MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORING FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST IS DRY AT THIS TIME AS TEMPS
ALOFT PROVIDE A STRONG CAP. THE CONCERN IS PW/S WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH...ABOUT 75 PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...AND ACCORDING TO THE NAM
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG LL JET THAT NOSES INTO THE CWA. THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS NOT SHOWING A FAVORABLE JET...THUS THE
DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE DRY LINE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. SW NEB
LIKELY WILL TOP 100 WITH ALL BUT PART OF NORTHERN ZONES TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. RH LEVELS TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE
SHOULD EASILY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER IT IS FAIRLY GREEN
AND WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS...NOT A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A STRONG CAP TO THE SOUTH.
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER
SHOULD STILL SEE SW NEB WARM INTO THE 90S...ELSEWHERE 80S. THEN A
COOL FRONT TO PASS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MODELS IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE RESULTING SLIGHT COOL DOWN WHICH
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD LATER IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGE DRIFTS EAST WITH SOME SHORT WAVES TO RIDE THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...RIDGE RIDERS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHWEST UNTIL 14Z-15Z...THEN
NORTHWEST 12G18KT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1016 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND
LOWER ACROSS NEW YORK TOWARD THE LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE... BAND OF RA/+RA IS MOVG NEWD ACRS NE PA ATTM...AND
IT SHOULD ALSO TRAVERSE OUR NY CNTYS E OF I-81...THROUGH ABT
05-07Z. DYNAMIC FORCING IS BEING PROVIDED BY UPR-LVL WV LIFTING
THROUGH WRN NY/PA...AND ALSO SOME UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE/JET SUPPORT.
MOISTURE SUPPLY IS DEFINITELY THERE...WITH BLENDED TPW IMAGERY
DEPICTING VALUES NEAR 2" FROM THE MID-ATL STATES NWD INTO SERN
PTNS OF THE FA. FORTUNATELY...THE AREA OF PCPN ITSELF IS
PROGRESSIVE...SO LCLZD MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2"
RANGE...FOR THE MOST PART. WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER ENHANCEMENT
AND/OR TRAINING OCCUR.
DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS (07-10Z)...STEADIER PCPN SHOULD TAPER BACK
TO SCTD -SHRA IN OUR ERN ZNS...AS THE BEST FORCED LIFT SHIFTS TO
OUR N AND E BY THIS TIME.
JUST MINOR TEMP/DEW PT TWEAKS WERE MADE THROUGH THE LATE EVE HRS.
PREV DISC... 630 PM EDT UPDATE... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. INCREASED POPS IN THE WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL PA. CURRENT
ANALYSIS IS INDICATING THAT MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS IS TAKING PLACE
OVER CENTRAL NY...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE CATSKILLS AND NE PA THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE REGION OF THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES. OTHER
THEN THAN...PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS GOOD.
EARLIER DISC... 230 PM UPDATE...
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN IN THE QUARTER TO LESS THAN HALF
INCH RAIN. MAYBE A FEW BREAKS HERE IN THE SHOWERS AND THEN HI RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD BATCH OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH IN THE 00Z TO 03Z
TIME FRAME. HRRR IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW. ARW HAS BEEN
DOING WELL WITH ITS FCSTS. THIS EVENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ANY THUNDER. PRIMARY FOCUS AREA REMAINS OVER NE
PA AND THE CATSKILLS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BUT OVER 2 INCHES IS NEEDED IN 3 HOURS WHICH WOULD NEED
A CLUSTER OF GOOD CONVECTION TO TRIGGER THIS AND THAT DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY. TOWARD MORNING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL
OR EVEN DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NY TUESDAY HELPING TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HAVE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND A FAVORABLE
JET REGION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE AT DRY WEATHER. WARM FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY
WITH A JET ENTRANCE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER N
EACH RUN WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. MAIN FOCUS AND TRACK OF THE
CENTER REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SETTING
UP A BAND OF GOOD RAIN ACROSS PA NRN TIER AND SOME IN THE NY SRN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...MED RNG FCST FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD. CHCS FOR -SHRA ASSCD WITH LOW PRES DEPARTING THE MID
ATLC RGN ON THU NGT (MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA)...THEN THE PSBLTY OF
SCT- SHRA ON FRI WITH PASSING S/WV`S IN NW FLOW. AFTER THAT...SFC
HI PRES IS XPCT TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH
MAXES GNRLY IN THE L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILING OVER THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW NOW CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
AT BGM/ITH/ELM...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP/PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIGS OCCASIONALLY FALLING BELOW ALTERNATE
FUEL MINS. AT RME...IFR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARDS 06Z WITH
WITH LOW-END MVFR EXPECTED AT SYR AND AVP.
SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS FOLLOWING PASSAGE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HRS. UNFORTUNATELY ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS TERMINAL WIDE.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
758 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND
LOWER ACROSS NEW YORK TOWARD THE LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. INCREASED POPS IN THE WEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING IN
FROM CENTRAL PA. CURRENT ANALYSIS IS INDICATING THAT MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS IS TAKING PLACE OVER CENTRAL NY...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. WE`LL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE CATSKILLS
AND NE PA THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE REGION OF THE HIGHEST PWAT
VALUES. OTHER THEN THAN...PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS GOOD.
230 PM UPDATE...
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN IN THE QUARTER TO LESS THAN HALF
INCH RAIN. MAYBE A FEW BREAKS HERE IN THE SHOWERS AND THEN HI RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD BATCH OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH IN THE 00Z TO 03Z
TIME FRAME. HRRR IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW. ARW HAS BEEN
DOING WELL WITH ITS FCSTS. THIS EVENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ANY THUNDER. PRIMARY FOCUS AREA REMAINS OVER NE
PA AND THE CATSKILLS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BUT OVER 2 INCHES IS NEEDED IN 3 HOURS WHICH WOULD NEED
A CLUSTER OF GOOD CONVECTION TO TRIGGER THIS AND THAT DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY. TOWARD MORNING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL
OR EVEN DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NY TUESDAY HELPING TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HAVE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND A FAVORABLE
JET REGION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE AT DRY WEATHER. WARM FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY
WITH A JET ENTRANCE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER N
EACH RUN WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. MAIN FOCUS AND TRACK OF THE
CENTER REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SETTING
UP A BAND OF GOOD RAIN ACROSS PA NRN TIER AND SOME IN THE NY SRN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...MED RNG FCST FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD. CHCS FOR -SHRA ASSCD WITH LOW PRES DEPARTING THE MID
ALTC RGN ON THU NGT (MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA)...THEN THE PSBLTY OF
SCT- SHRA ON FRI WITH PASSING S/WV`S IN NW FLOW. AFTER THAT...SFC
HI PRES IS XPCT TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH
MAXES GNRLY IN THE L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILING OVER THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW NOW CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
AT BGM/ITH/ELM...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP/PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CIGS OCCASIONALLY FALLING BELOW ALTERNATE
FUEL MINS. AT RME...IFR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARDS 06Z WITH
WITH LOW-END MVFR EXPECTED AT SYR AND AVP.
SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS FOLLOWING PASSAGE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HRS. UNFORTUNATELY ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS TERMINAL WIDE.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/KAH
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
149 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM EDT UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG HAS
BURNED OFF THIS MORNING AND A CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS MID LVL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
WEAK HIPRES AT THE SFC AND SHRP RDGG ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THEAREA
DRY TODAY. THE DAY WILL START WITH SOME DENSE FOG AS THE RECENT
RAIN AND CLR SKIES HAVE COMBINED TO SATURATE THE LL THIS MRNG.
STRONG SUNNWILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 70S THIS AFTN AND MAY TOUCH
80 IN THE CLYS OF NEPA AND THE CNTRL SRN TIER. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRP TROF WITH CLSD LOW APRCHS FOR TNGT THRU TUE. SLOW MVG SYSTEM
HAS A GULF CONNECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE AVBL WHICH SHD RESULT IN A
GOOD SOAKING BEGINNING MON AND CONTG THRU THE SHRT TERM. FVRBL UPR
JET DYNAMICS WITH RR OF A JET OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WRAPPING ARND THE UPR LOW TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE UVM WITH A WELL DEFINED SFC TROF WRM FNT
FEATURE CONNECTED TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOW. GOOD DYNAMICS
SHD ALSO HELP DVLP EMBEDDED CONV LOCALLY INCRSG RAINFALL AMTS AND
RATES. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME FLOOD FLAGS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
PSN OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.
MODEL TEMP GUID IN MARGINAL AGREEMENT FOR THE PD WITH THE GFS/MAV GUID
CONSDIERABLY WRMR THAN THE NAM/MET. BELIEVE THE DEEP CLD CLV AND PCPN
WILL KEEP THE TMPS FROM RCHG THE MAV LVLS BUT DID GO SLGTLY WRMR
THAN THE MET GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE SFC AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...TUESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
TIP OF NEW YORK MOVES OFF TO THE NE TAKING MOST OF THE CHC FOR
PCPN WITH IT BUT THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WITH NW CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP SOME STRATO
CU OVER THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RW- OR SPRINKLES WED AFTERNOON.
RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVE IN WED NIGHT. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THU.
THERE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
MASON-DIXON LINE AREA. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH IT THEN THE ECMWF.
THE ECMWF PHASES WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE WHERE
AS THE GFS KEEPS THEM SEPARATE. EITHER WAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AS THESE WAVES MOVE E ON FRI THE AREA IS BACK INTO NW
CLYCLONIC FLOW ENHANCING CLOUDS OVER TERRAIN AND CHANCE RW- WITH
UPSLOPE AND A LITTLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FOR SAT. THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN SAT NIGHT AND
A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SCATTERED CU WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFT 22Z. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN OVER NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVES INTO NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY BY
12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BECOMING SE 5-10 KT MON.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY AS INCREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN MOVE IN. CLOUDS BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL
MID DAY AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN
RAIN. CHANCES FOR TSTMS ALSO INCREASES...IFR CONDS AND HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH ANY TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT...IFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WED AND THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...BMW/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1021 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM EDT UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG HAS
BURNED OFF THIS MORNING AND A CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS MID LVL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
WEAK HIPRES AT THE SFC AND SHRP RDGG ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THEAREA
DRY TODAY. THE DAY WILL START WITH SOME DENSE FOG AS THE RECENT
RAIN AND CLR SKIES HAVE COMBINED TO SATURATE THE LL THIS MRNG.
STRONG SUNNWILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 70S THIS AFTN AND MAY TOUCH
80 IN THE CLYS OF NEPA AND THE CNTRL SRN TIER. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHRP TROF WITH CLSD LOW APRCHS FOR TNGT THRU TUE. SLOW MVG SYSTEM
HAS A GULF CONNECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE AVBL WHICH SHD RESULT IN A
GOOD SOAKING BEGINNING MON AND CONTG THRU THE SHRT TERM. FVRBL UPR
JET DYNAMICS WITH RR OF A JET OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WRAPPING ARND THE UPR LOW TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE UVM WITH A WELL DEFINED SFC TROF WRM FNT
FEATURE CONNECTED TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOW. GOOD DYNAMICS
SHD ALSO HELP DVLP EMBEDDED CONV LOCALLY INCRSG RAINFALL AMTS AND
RATES. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME FLOOD FLAGS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
PSN OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.
MODEL TEMP GUID IN MARGINAL AGREEMENT FOR THE PD WITH THE GFS/MAV GUID
CONSDIERABLY WRMR THAN THE NAM/MET. BELIEVE THE DEEP CLD CLV AND PCPN
WILL KEEP THE TMPS FROM RCHG THE MAV LVLS BUT DID GO SLGTLY WRMR
THAN THE MET GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE SFC AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE PERSISTENT FEATURES OF
NOTE FOR OUR FA LTR THIS WEEK...WILL BE AN UPR-LVL TROUGH ACRS
SERN CANADA...AND AN UPR-LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN AND S-CNTRL
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD NEWD
WITH TIME...A NW FLOW PATN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL.
OCNL NRN STREAM WVS WILL TRAVERSE THIS FLOW PATN...AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD -SHRA DURG THE MID-WEEK PD. ATTM...IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORCED LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SUPPLY MAY
RESIDE S OF OUR CWA...BUT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...BOTH WPC AND
NWP CONSENSUS POINT TWDS A CHC OF SHWRS...AND WE`VE ACCEPTED
THIS...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY MEDIUM RANGE UNCERTAINTIES.
FROM FRI ONWARD...MODEL/WPC PROGS SHOW SFC RIDGING COMING IN FROM
THE W...ALG WITH BLDG HTS ALOFT. THUS...DRY WX IS STILL INDICATED
IN THE GRIDS TWDS NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH NO STG TEMP SIGNALS DEPICTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WE WENT
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR MID-JUNE (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S...AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND SOME FOG/MVFR CIGS UP
ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KELM WITH BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS UNTIL NEAR 12Z...THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY 13Z
AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 14Z. BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING
HOW DENSE THE FOG IS...SEE NO REASON TO EXPECT ANYTHING FASTER
THAN THIS.
DESPITE SOME FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING VFR WILL CONTINUE AT KITH
AND KBGM AS THE FOG HAS ALREADY BURNED OFF AND WITH THE STRONG SUN
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREEP UP THE HILL. AT KAVP WILL CONTINUE
MVFR VSBYS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEY.
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOG IS LESS A CONCERN NOW WITH MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN. BASED ON OBS TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARD 12Z AT KAVP...AND AFTER 12Z AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.
AT THIS TIME ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAVP WITH THE
ONSET OF THE LIGHT RAIN.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LGT THROUGH THE PD (MAINLY AOB 5 KT).
OUTLOOK...
MON AND TUE...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY...SPCLY FROM MON EVE
ONWARD...AS SHWRS DVLP OVER THE AREA.
WED AND THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...BMW/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIPRES AT THE SFC AND SHRP RDGG ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THEAREA
DRY TODAY. THE DAY WILL START WITH SOME DENSE FOG AS THE RECENT
RAIN AND CLR SKIES HAVE COMBINED TO SATURATE THE LL THIS MRNG.
STRONG SUNNWILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 70S THIS AFTN AND MAY TOUCH
80 IN THE CLYS OF NEPA AND THE CNTRL SRN TIER. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHRP TROF WITH CLSD LOW APRCHS FOR TNGT THRU TUE. SLOW MVG SYSTEM
HAS A GULF CONNECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE AVBL WHICH SHD RESULT IN A
GOOD SOAKING BEGINNING MON AND CONTG THRU THE SHRT TERM. FVRBL UPR
JET DYNAMICS WITH RR OF A JET OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WRAPPING ARND THE UPR LOW TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE UVM WITH A WELL DEFINED SFC TROF WRM FNT
FEATURE CONNECTED TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOW. GOOD DYNAMICS
SHD ALSO HELP DVLP EMBEDDED CONV LOCALLY INCRSG RAINFALL AMTS AND
RATES. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME FLOOD FLAGS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
PSN OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.
MODEL TEMP GUID IN MARGINAL AGREEMENT FOR THE PD WITH THE GFS/MAV GUID
CONSDIERABLY WRMR THAN THE NAM/MET. BELIEVE THE DEEP CLD CLV AND PCPN
WILL KEEP THE TMPS FROM RCHG THE MAV LVLS BUT DID GO SLGTLY WRMR
THAN THE MET GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE SFC AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE PERSISTENT FEATURES OF
NOTE FOR OUR FA LTR THIS WEEK...WILL BE AN UPR-LVL TROUGH ACRS
SERN CANADA...AND AN UPR-LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN AND S-CNTRL
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD NEWD
WITH TIME...A NW FLOW PATN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL.
OCNL NRN STREAM WVS WILL TRAVERSE THIS FLOW PATN...AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD -SHRA DURG THE MID-WEEK PD. ATTM...IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORCED LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SUPPLY MAY
RESIDE S OF OUR CWA...BUT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...BOTH WPC AND
NWP CONSENSUS POINT TWDS A CHC OF SHWRS...AND WE`VE ACCEPTED
THIS...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY MEDIUM RANGE UNCERTAINTIES.
FROM FRI ONWARD...MODEL/WPC PROGS SHOW SFC RIDGING COMING IN FROM
THE W...ALG WITH BLDG HTS ALOFT. THUS...DRY WX IS STILL INDICATED
IN THE GRIDS TWDS NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH NO STG TEMP SIGNALS DEPICTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WE WENT
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR MID-JUNE (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S...AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND SOME FOG/MVFR CIGS UP
ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KELM WITH BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS UNTIL NEAR 12Z...THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY 13Z
AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 14Z. BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING
HOW DENSE THE FOG IS...SEE NO REASON TO EXPECT ANYTHING FASTER
THAN THIS.
DESPITE SOME FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING VFR WILL CONTINUE AT KITH
AND KBGM AS THE FOG HAS ALREADY BURNED OFF AND WITH THE STRONG SUN
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREEP UP THE HILL. AT KAVP WILL CONTINUE
MVFR VSBYS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEY.
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOG IS LESS A CONCERN NOW WITH MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN. BASED ON OBS TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARD 12Z AT KAVP...AND AFTER 12Z AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.
AT THIS TIME ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAVP WITH THE
ONSET OF THE LIGHT RAIN.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LGT THROUGH THE PD (MAINLY AOB 5 KT).
OUTLOOK...
MON AND TUE...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY...SPCLY FROM MON EVE
ONWARD...AS SHWRS DVLP OVER THE AREA.
WED AND THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
219 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK HIPRES AT THE SFC AND SHRP RDGG ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THEAREA
DRY TODAY. THE DAY WILL START WITH SOME DENSE FOG AS THE RECENT
RAIN AND CLR SKIES HAVE COMBINED TO SATURATE THE LL THIS MRNG.
STRONG SUNNWILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 70S THIS AFTN AND MAY TOUCH
80 IN THE CLYS OF NEPA AND THE CNTRL SRN TIER. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHRP TROF WITH CLSD LOW APRCHS FOR TNGT THRU TUE. SLOW MVG SYSTEM
HAS A GULF CONNECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE AVBL WHICH SHD RESULT IN A
GOOD SOAKING BEGINNING MON AND CONTG THRU THE SHRT TERM. FVRBL UPR
JET DYNAMICS WITH RR OF A JET OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WRAPPING ARND THE UPR LOW TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE UVM WITH A WELL DEFINED SFC TROF WRM FNT
FEATURE CONNECTED TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOW. GOOD DYNAMICS
SHD ALSO HELP DVLP EMBEDDED CONV LOCALLY INCRSG RAINFALL AMTS AND
RATES. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME FLOOD FLAGS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
PSN OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.
MODEL TEMP GUID IN MARGINAL AGREEMENT FOR THE PD WITH THE GFS/MAV GUID
CONSDIERABLY WRMR THAN THE NAM/MET. BELIEVE THE DEEP CLD CLV AND PCPN
WILL KEEP THE TMPS FROM RCHG THE MAV LVLS BUT DID GO SLGTLY WRMR
THAN THE MET GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE SFC AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE PERSISTENT FEATURES OF
NOTE FOR OUR FA LTR THIS WEEK...WILL BE AN UPR-LVL TROUGH ACRS
SERN CANADA...AND AN UPR-LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN AND S-CNTRL
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD NEWD
WITH TIME...A NW FLOW PATN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL.
OCNL NRN STREAM WVS WILL TRAVERSE THIS FLOW PATN...AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD -SHRA DURG THE MID-WEEK PD. ATTM...IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORCED LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SUPPLY MAY
RESIDE S OF OUR CWA...BUT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...BOTH WPC AND
NWP CONSENSUS POINT TWDS A CHC OF SHWRS...AND WE`VE ACCEPTED
THIS...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY MEDIUM RANGE UNCERTAINTIES.
FROM FRI ONWARD...MODEL/WPC PROGS SHOW SFC RIDGING COMING IN FROM
THE W...ALG WITH BLDG HTS ALOFT. THUS...DRY WX IS STILL INDICATED
IN THE GRIDS TWDS NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH NO STG TEMP SIGNALS DEPICTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WE WENT
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR MID-JUNE (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S...AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
AS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS NOW OVER THE TERMINALS
MOVES EAST...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. IFR FOG APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KELM STARTING AT 06Z...WITH
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. ELSEWHERE THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING IS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION BUT SURFACE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY VERY NEAR THE DEWPOINT. WENT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z AT KSYR/KRME/KBGM AS THESE TERMINALS WILL BE
THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. AT KITH AND KAVP WE HAVE A BETTER SHOT TO
SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY...THEREFORE INCLUDED A FEW HOURS
OF IFR HERE. RETURN TO VFR BY 12Z WITH VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LGT THROUGH THE PD (MAINLY AOB 5 KT).
OUTLOOK...
MON AND TUE...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY...SPCLY FROM MON EVE
ONWARD...AS SHWRS DVLP OVER THE AREA.
WED AND THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1027 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...WEAK ASCENT CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE FORM OF PVA AND LOW LEVEL JETTING NOW ENCOUNTERING STABILIZED
AIR. AS A RESULT CONVECTION ALL BUT GONE AND NOW PRECIP HAS A MORE
STRATIFORM CHARACTER. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AT THIS POINT IS HOW LONG
PRECIP LINGERS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY ADDITIONAL MANAGES TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM. LATEST RUNS OF LOCAL HRRR AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT THIS CURRENT BATCH WILL BE THE LAST AND POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED DOWNWARD AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 06Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE COLUMN WILL BE DRIER DURING TUESDAY...AND
MORE-SO WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPERIENCED TODAY
BECOMES WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY. STILL ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT NOT AS MUCH AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY. VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE HEAT INDEX APPROACHING
100F MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY 100-103F FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SC.
MINS WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT WITH THE WARMEST MINS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A WELL-DEFINED
SANDHILLS TROUGH AS WELL AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WILL KEEP POPS IN A
GENERAL 40-50 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA COINCIDENT WITH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. PRECIP
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH RAPID MID-LEVEL DRYING. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE A SOLID 7-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY JUNE. A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ACT TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS POSSIBLY CREATING SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG INLAND LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE COASTAL SITES ATTM...WITH A SECONDARY LINE THAT HAS
FORMED JUST NOW REACHING THE WARNING AREA FROM BOTH THE WEST AND THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWERED GIVEN THE NATURE OF
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER MODELS AND NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENTS STILL SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY OF TSRA TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS/HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THAT DO OCCUR. AS ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR AT THE INLAND SITES DUE TO FOG/LOW CIGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB
10 KTS TO PREVAIL...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
FOR TUESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...ALLOWING FOR
VFR TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW/SCT LOW TO MID- LEVEL CLOUDS AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...HAVING SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THE FORECAST WINDS
AND EVEN MORESO THE RESULTING SEAS. WEAK LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATER
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO BE HARD PRESSED TO MIX DOWN MUCH OF THE 30KT
92MB JET DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...WHICH ALSO APPEARS TO FORM A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. MORE TROUBLING IS THAT
WNA GUIDANCE AND SWAN BOTH AS OF 03Z TRYING TO SHOW NEARLY 6 FT SEAS
AT 41013 WHERE REALITY IS 3.5FT. HAVE TRENDED SEAS DOWN IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM BUT DID NOT WANT TO CANCEL ADVISORY JUST YET.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX AND THE WIND WILL VEER AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE A NOTCH AGAIN
DURING WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL FETCH SUPPORTS MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER CAPE FEAR
WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK OFF THE COAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY
EVENING...AND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX
BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AND CROSS ON
FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL
AND OF CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING SOUTH OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY
TO ALONG COASTAL SC. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH LINES OF
CONVECTION WHICH PULLS THE FIRST LINE OFF THE OBX AROUND MIDNIGHT
WHILE THE SECOND LINE ADVECTS INTO SWRN COUNTIES AROUND THE SAME
TIME...OFF THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING SO THE THREAT OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS
DIMINISHING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...THOUGH
RAIN COOLED AIR HAS ALREADY COOLED INLAND LOCATIONS TO NEAR MIN
TEMPS AND EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUE...BUT
UNTIL THEN...CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL CONT CLRG FROM W TO EAST.
IT WILL RMN QUITE BREEZY ON TUE WITH SW WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH
RANGE ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. WARM TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
UPR 80S INLAND AND LWR 80S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BECOME DRY AND HOT BEHIND
UPPER TROUGH/WEAK COOL FRONT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AS NC
BRIEFLY COMES UNDER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION DUE TO
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 90S AND SUPPRESS DIURNAL CONVECTION.
FOR WED NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL NOSE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW MIGRATE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ANY SEVERE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM MAY RIDE ESE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. THINKING
THAT BULK OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER...THOUGH A FEW MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FA/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS HERE FOR
LATE WED NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INC FURTHER ON THUR AS WSW FLOW STRENGTHENS
AND BRINGS IN HOTTER TEMPS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO SOME CASES UPPER 90S...AND
WITH TD VALS INTO THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...105 DEGREES OR HIGHER THUR AFTERNOON.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COMPACT BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THUR EVENING. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING SFC LOW TRANSLATING EASTWARD BETWEEN THE TIDEWATER OF VA
AND THE CAPE MAY AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE DYNAMICS FOR
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY
THUR AND ESP THUR EVENING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AVAILABLE COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT.
SHARP COOL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY FRI MORNING BRINGING
PLEASANTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOL TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A COUPLE LINES OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
PUSH ACROSS RTES. THE FIRST WILL PULL EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VARIABLE
CIGS EXPECTED WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SWLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
WLY TUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. WHILE A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE DAY TUE...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO BRING ISOL-SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS)
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN LATE DAY THUR AND
INTO THU NIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM MONDAY...TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENTS CONTINUE THROUGH TUE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT. EXPECT SWLY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED NORTHERN
WATERS TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR ALL WATERS...THOUGH
MAINLY FOR GUSTS IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STRONG SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND
VEER WESTERLY LATE TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO WASH OUT AND DECREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AND INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY
THUR YET AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT AND LOW
PRES AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INC TO SCA CRITERIA...SEAS
WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING 6-8 FT WITH SOME 9 FT SETS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS. POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING CLOSE TO 6 FEET NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...JAC/TL/LEP
LONG TERM...BTC/LEP
AVIATION...SK/TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/DAG/TL/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE NEXT WEEK. DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT FROM PRESENT 1.5 INCH RANGE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY
THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS INCREASES. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE FRONT AND ALSO OVER OUR WESTERN-MOST
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST IN VICINITY TO A DEVELOPING THERMAL
TROUGH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID 80S MOST PLACES FOR
HIGHS TODAY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY SUMMER-LIKE FEEL TO THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND 70 MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST MON MORNING WILL MOVE EAST PUSHING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL POOL
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES
REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS CARRIES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MINOR PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN H5 TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON TUES
MOVING OFF SHORE BY LATE TUES. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ON TUES BEFORE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. BEST CONVERGENCE TUES
AFTN WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF SHORE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW MON INTO TUES WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TUES AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW BY TUES EVENING
ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE
CONVECTION MAY END EARLIER ON TUES WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 1.5 INCHES BY TUES EVENING.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MON THROUGH TUES WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 65 AND 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH CLOUDS AND PCP IN THE FORECAST. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ON MON WITH LOWER TEMPS IN SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUES WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER. IF DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND SUNSHINE SNEAKS OUT ON TUES ALONG WITH
A GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPS MAY SHOOT UP TOWARD
90.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH UP THROUGH THE INLAND
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL HELP TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. DEEPER W-NW FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AS RIDGE REACHES UP INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM SOME CU BUILD UP AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTN...WILL SEE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO KEEP A RAIN FREE
FORECAST FOR WED. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AND SUNSHINE WILL PRODUCE VERY WARM TEMPS ON WED.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 90S ON WED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THURS. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT A VERY MOIST OR UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO
THE 90S MOST PLACES AS SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL EARLIER IN THE DAY. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COME
LATE THURS AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THEREFORE
EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT.
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL VALUES RUNNING IN THE
MID 80S FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL IN THE MID 60S MOST PLACES IN AN OVERALL DRIER AIR
MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH CALM WINDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...VSBYS
ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DROP INLAND DUE TO FOG. EXPECT PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLBT AND KFLO BETWEEN 07-11Z THIS MORNING.
THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE INHIBITED FOG
FORMATION THUS FAR...BUT MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OFFSHORE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
COASTAL TERMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTN
WITH INLAND SEA BREEZE PROGRESSION AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY WITH SCT/BKN CU AND PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 15KFT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM FROM PRESENT CONDITIONS. A STEADY S TO SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS AT
PRESENT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL STAY IN A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THESE S-SW WINDS UP TO UP TO 15 TO 20 KT MON AND CLOSE TO 20 KT
MON NIGHT WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS MAY
TOP THE 6 FT MARK REACHING SCA CRITERIA IN OUTER WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-SW THROUGH LATE TUES INTO EARLY
WED AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT TUES BUT WINDS WILL VEER BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD BY EARLY WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW THROUGH WED AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. OVERALL EXPECT SW
WINDS 10 KTS OR SO TO START THE DAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS RISE AGAIN LATE WED THROUGH THURS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THURS. WNA SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AROUND 6 TO
7 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT THURS BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO
THE NORTH BEHIND FRONT. BY FRIDAY GREATER OFF SHORE NW TO N FLOW
WILL DIMINISH DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KTS ALLOWING SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS BUT STILL REMAINING 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
422 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE NEXT WEEK. DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A DEEP PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT FROM PRESENT 1.5 INCH RANGE TO AROUND 2
INCHES BY THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS INCREASES. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE FRONT AND ALSO OVER OUR
WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST IN VICINITY TO A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID 80S MOST PLACES FOR HIGHS TODAY.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL MAKE FOR A VERY SUMMER-
LIKE FEEL TO THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 70 MOST
PLACES. &&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST MON MORNING WILL MOVE EAST PUSHING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL POOL
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES
REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS CARRIES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MINOR PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN H5 TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON TUES
MOVING OFF SHORE BY LATE TUES. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ON TUES BEFORE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. BEST CONVERGENCE TUES
AFTN WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF SHORE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW MON INTO TUES WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TUES AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW BY TUES EVENING
ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE
CONVECTION MAY END EARLIER ON TUES WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 1.5 INCHES BY TUES EVENING.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MON THROUGH TUES WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 65 AND 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH CLOUDS AND PCP IN THE FORECAST. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ON MON WITH LOWER TEMPS IN SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUES WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER. IF DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND SUNSHINE SNEAKS OUT ON TUES ALONG WITH
A GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPS MAY SHOOT UP TOWARD
90.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH UP THROUGH THE INLAND
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL HELP TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. DEEPER W-NW FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AS RIDGE REACHES UP INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM SOME CU BUILD UP AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTN...WILL SEE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO KEEP A RAIN FREE
FORECAST FOR WED. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AND SUNSHINE WILL PRODUCE VERY WARM TEMPS ON WED.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 90S ON WED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THURS. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT A VERY MOIST OR UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO
THE 90S MOST PLACES AS SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL EARLIER IN THE DAY. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COME
LATE THURS AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THEREFORE
EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT.
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL VALUES RUNNING IN THE
MID 80S FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL IN THE MID 60S MOST PLACES IN AN OVERALL DRIER AIR
MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH CALM WINDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...VSBYS
ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DROP INLAND DUE TO FOG. EXPECT PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLBT AND KFLO BETWEEN 07-11Z THIS MORNING.
THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE INHIBITED FOG
FORMATION THUS FAR...BUT MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OFFSHORE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
COASTAL TERMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTN
WITH INLAND SEA BREEZE PROGRESSION AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY WITH SCT/BKN CU AND PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 15KFT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FROM PRESENT CONDITIONS. A
STEADY S TO SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS AT PRESENT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL STAY IN A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THESE S-SW WINDS UP TO UP TO 15 TO 20 KT MON AND CLOSE TO 20 KT
MON NIGHT WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS MAY
TOP THE 6 FT MARK REACHING SCA CRITERIA IN OUTER WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-SW THROUGH LATE TUES INTO EARLY
WED AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT TUES BUT WINDS WILL VEER BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD BY EARLY WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW THROUGH WED AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. OVERALL EXPECT SW
WINDS 10 KTS OR SO TO START THE DAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS RISE AGAIN LATE WED THROUGH THURS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THURS. WNA SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AROUND 6 TO
7 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT THURS BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO
THE NORTH BEHIND FRONT. BY FRIDAY GREATER OFF SHORE NW TO N FLOW
WILL DIMINISH DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KTS ALLOWING SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS BUT STILL REMAINING 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
MOSAIC RADAR ANIMATIONS DEPICT RETURNS OVER SE GEORGIA MOVING IN
LANGUID FASHION TO THE NE. SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE EXITING NEW ENGLAND FROM THE
SOGGY REMNANTS OF ANDREA...BUT OF MORE RELEVANCE TO THE UPCOMING
FORECAST...ANOTHER SLUG OF HIGH WATER VAPOR CONTENT WAS EVIDENT
OVER OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO LIFTING NORTHWARD.
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SURFACE REFLECTION OR
CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH THIS PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT THE
BERMUDA HIGH CIRCULATION OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW THIS
ENHANCED MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT
APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OFFSHORE COULD BRING CLIPPING SHOWERS TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION. A
FEW LIGHT DROPS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND AS COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES
AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK H7-H5 IMPULSES. THUS WILL RETAIN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING OF MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ONE CHANGE MADE WAS TO BUMP UP
MINIMUM TEMPS A NOTCH AS ADVANCING CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED TEMP
CURVE DROPS THIS EVENING...AND SUSPECT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS
THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP VERY MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACTUALLY INCREASE
AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP ERODING. THE SEABREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO FOCUS/CONVERGE/LIFT MOISTURE. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE WITH BEST COVERAGE LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR
THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT/DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED WATERS DURING THE NIGHT AND SKIM
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE AT NIGHT AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION EXPANDS. WET SOILS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
MONDAY...A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM WILL MOVE EAST...HELPING TO
BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NW A LITTLE CLOSER. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE FRONT END OF THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE AND
RIDE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE
COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR MON WITH POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR INLAND ZONES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S WITH PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING WELL INLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLEST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH
LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SO IT WILL FEEL HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...TUESDAY APPEARS TO BRING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT AND WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
TROUGH PUSH THROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO GET UP TO
NEAR NORMAL AS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE TOO
PREVALENT. MODELS STARTING TO SEEM RELUCTANT TO PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH BUT GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IT SHOULD MAKE CLEAN
FROPA ALBEIT QUICK TO RETURN TO THE NORTH IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE
EVEN AS SOON AS PERHAPS WED. MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN CHANCES WED LIKELY
SHIFTS TO PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THUS MOST ACTIVITY APPEARS TO REMAIN
TO OUR NW...IF THERE IS MUCH AT ALL SINCE THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD BUT THERE IS AT LEAST AGREEMENT IN FEATURES IN THAT ANOTHER
TROUGH AND FRONT ARE POISED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES RAMPING UP
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MAY THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH CALM WINDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...VSBYS
ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DROP INLAND DUE TO FOG. EXPECT PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLBT AND KFLO BETWEEN 07-11Z THIS MORNING.
THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE INHIBITED FOG
FORMATION THUS FAR...BUT MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OFFSHORE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
COASTAL TERMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTN
WITH INLAND SEA BREEZE PROGRESSION AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY WITH SCT/BKN CU AND PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 15KFT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
ALL HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW 10-15 KT OVER THE
WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL RELAX A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION FADES. SEAS WILL REMAINS 3
TO 4 FT THROUGH DAWN SUNDAY...IN A COMBINATION SE WAVES EVERY 7
SECONDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WIND CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT NO SEA FOG IS
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUN WILL VEER TO SW SUN NIGHT AND
REMAIN FROM THE SW THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. A NOCTURNAL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH SUN
NIGHT AND MON NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT MON AND CLOSE TO 20 KT MON
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND
THEN BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT MON AND MON NIGHT. INCREASING WIND AND SWELL
WILL BRING SEAS CLOSE TO 6 FT BY LATE MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MAY BRIEFLY CROSS
THE WATERS LATER TODAY. MODELS STARTING TO HANDLE THIS FRONT
DIFFERENTLY AND ERRATICALLY LEADING TO A LOWERED FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED THAT THE
FRONT WILL NEARLY OR COMPLETELY WASH OUT AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE RETAINED BY WEDNESDAY AFTER A POSSIBLE SLIGHT VEER ASSOC
WITH ITS PASSAGE. THIS APPEARS TO OPEN THE CAROLINA COASTS UP FOR
SOME SWELL ENERGY FROM THE ATLANTIC THAT ACCORDING TO MOST WAVE
GUIDANCE WILL LEAD TO SOME HEADLINES OR EVEN ADVISORIES FOR SEAS
EVEN THOUGH WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER. THIS TOO SEEMS A
LITTLE DUBIOUS AS GUIDANCE SEEMS RATHER ROBUST WITH THE RESULTING
WAVES. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN AS THE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ND HAVE MADE NO
FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. RAP HAS THAT NORTHERN BAND DIMINISHING
AND THEN REFORMING...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LEANED
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE RAP AND KEPT MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER THE
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE MORNING. NO CHANGES
TO TEMPS AND WINDS AS EVERYTHING SEEMS ON TRACK SO FAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE
PRECIP OVER CENTRAL ND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH FURTHER EAST AT
ALL...AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HINT AT THIS AREA STARTING TO DIE
OUT AND MOST OF OUR PRECIP COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH OUT OF SD.
KEPT HIGHEST POPS JUST ALONG THE FAR WESTERN FRINGE...AND DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATER TOMORROW MORNING. WITH CU
DIMINISHING...THE NORTHEAST HAS LOST QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER SO
ADJUSTED CLOUDS A BIT FOR TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND POPS AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
CROSSED OVER INTO OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER THIS EVENING. GIVEN
HRRR...RAP...AND NAM SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS VERY SLOW RADAR
TRENDS...THINK THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY IN
THAT GENERAL VICINITY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER EAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNSET AS SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DECK OVER
CENTRAL ND AND SD MOVES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE DRIER NAM INITIALLY.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND EXPECT
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE WEST WITH CLOUDS...WITH COOLER
READINGS IN THE EAST. IF THE LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE...NOT MUCH
PRECIP MAY FALL IN ANY AREA WITH BEST FORCING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
ON SUNDAY...THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTH COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON
SO WILL MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS IN
ALL AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FOR MONDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME CAPE AND LI/S TO
AROUND -4C ARE PROGGED IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND IT SHOULD BE WARM.
FOR TUE...FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD HELP
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 PERHAPS IN SOME AREAS...WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU THE CONUS IS UNDER A TROUGH RIDGE TROUGH
PATTERN. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE RIDING UP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SPREADING SOME PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY WED. EVEN THEN THE SIGNAL IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL WITH THE GFS/GEM LOOKING FAIRLY DRY YET. PATTERN
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN FRI INTO SAT WITH SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
TAKING OVER. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO WET WEATHER. LATEST RUN
OF THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO WILL SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE
IN STORE. TEMP PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S OR NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL GO DOWN TO MVFR SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z AT KDVL AND
AROUND 12Z IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...CONDITIONS WILL
STAY VFR A BIT LONGER BUT CIGS SHOULD GO DOWN BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AND SHOULD IMPACT MOST SITES ALTHOUGH NOT CONTINUOUSLY.
SOME SPOTS COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR CIGS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS POINT TO PUT THAT INTO THE TAFS. THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED SO ALSO KEPT OUT FOR NOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT FSM/FYV/XNA THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL END AROUND SUNSET. THE PROBABILITY THAT
A TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN
THE TAF. WILL MONITOR IN CASE AN UPDATE IS NEEDED. /SA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
12Z DATA INDICATES THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OVER. STILL A COLD POOL ALOFT OVER KANSAS
THAT WILL SWING DOWN OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS LOOKS STABLE...BUT AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CHANGE
THAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...MAINLY EAST. WILL LOWER POPS A
LITTLE. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 85 66 93 70 / 10 10 10 10
FSM 83 64 93 69 / 30 10 10 0
MLC 85 66 93 71 / 20 10 10 0
BVO 84 61 93 69 / 10 10 10 10
FYV 78 60 89 66 / 30 10 10 0
BYV 77 61 89 66 / 30 10 10 10
MKO 82 65 91 69 / 20 10 10 0
MIO 84 62 91 69 / 20 10 10 10
F10 84 65 92 71 / 20 10 10 0
HHW 87 66 92 70 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
12Z DATA INDICATES THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OVER. STILL A COLD POOL ALOFT OVER KANSAS
THAT WILL SWING DOWN OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS LOOKS STABLE...BUT AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CHANGE
THAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...MAINLY EAST. WILL LOWER POPS A
LITTLE. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 86 70 92 73 / 10 20 10 0
FSM 83 68 91 70 / 40 10 10 0
MLC 85 70 91 72 / 20 10 10 0
BVO 84 65 90 70 / 10 20 10 0
FYV 79 63 86 67 / 40 20 10 0
BYV 78 65 86 69 / 50 20 10 0
MKO 83 68 91 71 / 20 20 10 0
MIO 84 65 88 71 / 40 20 10 0
F10 85 70 92 72 / 20 10 10 0
HHW 87 69 91 72 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
801 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GRT LKS ARND NEXT THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES THIS AM...THE RESULT OF A CALM
WIND AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC
RH SUGGESTS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 12Z. WAA DEVELOPING ON WEST SIDE
OF RETREATING RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
OHIO AND SW PA AT 09Z. THE LATEST RAP OUTPUT...WHICH IS PICKING UP
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LYR OF MOISTURE NR 700MB...SUGGESTS THIS
BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP A BIT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PA LATER THIS AM. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SC MTNS.
8H TEMPS SURGING TO NR 15C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GO SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS UNDER PTSUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD APPROACHING UPPER LOW
OVR THE MIDWEST. VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MDL GUIDANCE THRU LATE
MONDAY...ALL OF WHICH TRACK UPPER LOW EASTWARD TOWARD PA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LL JET/PWATS WILL
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE IN
THE DAY BASED ON GEFS/SREF OUTPUT.
HAVE PLAYED DOWN THE CHC OF THUNDER MONDAY...AS OVERCAST SKIES AND
ONGOING RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
00Z GEFS MEAN CAPES AOB 500 J/KG. A BLEND OF OPER AND ENSEMBLE
QPF SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL MDL RUNS PRODUCE
LOCAL AMTS ARND 2 INCHES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PWATS
2-3SD ABV NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA MON EVENING...CAUSING HEAVY SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER...SCT ADDITIONAL SHRA AND POSS TSRA SHOULD BE IN
STORE FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...AS 5H TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ARND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH NORMAL TIMING ISSUES REMAIN...BULK OF MDLS TRACK SFC LOW
SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY...SO HAVE RAMPED UP THE CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE MDL DATA TO SUPPORT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDS ARRIVING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS SE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VALLEY FOG IN PLACES THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS
CONDITIONS TRANSITION BACK TO VFR.
WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ON WEST SIDE OF RIDGE IS PUSHING
AN AREA OF BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...BUT THIS
CLOUD LAYER WILL EVAPORATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
RESULTING IN SOME INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LATE DAY
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS. DIDN/T MENTION IN TAFS DUE
TO LOW COVERAGE AREA.
AREA OF RAIN BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS FOR PA. LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS ARRIVING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. CIGS/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING BY 04-08Z.
MON-TUES...NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ESP MON-MON NIGHT/. SCT PM TSRA.
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE.
WED-THU...SCT SHOWERS...BUT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GRT LKS ARND NEXT THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES THIS AM...THE RESULT OF A CALM
WIND AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC
RH SUGGESTS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 12Z. WAA DEVELOPING ON WEST SIDE
OF RETREATING RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
OHIO AND SW PA AT 09Z. THE LATEST RAP OUTPUT...WHICH IS PICKING UP
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LYR OF MOISTURE NR 700MB...SUGGESTS THIS
BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP A BIT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PA LATER THIS AM. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SC MTNS.
8H TEMPS SURGING TO NR 15C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GO SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS UNDER PTSUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD APPROACHING UPPER LOW
OVR THE MIDWEST. VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MDL GUIDANCE THRU LATE
MONDAY...ALL OF WHICH TRACK UPPER LOW EASTWARD TOWARD PA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LL JET/PWATS WILL
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE IN
THE DAY BASED ON GEFS/SREF OUTPUT.
HAVE PLAYED DOWN THE CHC OF THUNDER MONDAY...AS OVERCAST SKIES AND
ONGOING RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
00Z GEFS MEAN CAPES AOB 500 J/KG. A BLEND OF OPER AND ENSEMBLE
QPF SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL MDL RUNS PRODUCE
LOCAL AMTS ARND 2 INCHES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PWATS
2-3SD ABV NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA MON EVENING...CAUSING HEAVY SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER...SCT ADDITIONAL SHRA AND POSS TSRA SHOULD BE IN
STORE FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...AS 5H TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ARND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH NORMAL TIMING ISSUES REMAIN...BULK OF MDLS TRACK SFC LOW
SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY...SO HAVE RAMPED UP THE CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE MDL DATA TO SUPPORT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDS ARRIVING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS SE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT WIND AND MCLEAR SKIES UNDER SFC RIDGE IS RESULTING IN EARLY
AM FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...
MAINLY ACROSS NW PA WHERE PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING.
ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSS THROUGH 13Z.
WAA ON WEST SIDE OF RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS OHIO AND SW PA AT 06Z...AND SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PA BEFORE DAWN. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...
RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT
LATE DAY CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS...BUT HELD MENTION
TO VCSH IN TAFS FOR THAT AREA DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS CENTRAL PA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS MAINLY IN THE SW.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ESP MON-MON NIGHT/. SCT PM
TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
WED-THU...SCT SHOWERS...BUT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...MOVING
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPANDING LATE THIS
EVENING UNDER A TROUGH AXIS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED FROM THE
EARLIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE UNFAVORABLE
HOUR. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE SUPPORTING A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE...AND THE MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WITH THE
PASSING WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
HAS BETTER COVERAGE SURVIVING EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...BUT IT
DID NOT INITIALIZE PARTICULARLY WELL. THE LATEST SPC SREF POST
PROCESSED TSTM GUIDANCE FROM 21Z INITIALIZED QUITE WELL AS WE
APPROACH 03Z...AND IT HAS DIMINISHING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE
TSTMS FROM THE MTNS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED...BUT
WITH GENERALLY HIGHER END CHANCES IN THE WRN MTNS TO SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THE SE PIEDMONT. A FEW OF THE SURVIVING STORMS COULD SHOW SOME
ORGANIZATION BUT THE WIND/HAIL THREAT LOOKS QUITE MARGINAL AT THIS
HOUR.
W/NW FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO DRY
CONDITIONS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CAPE DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A DECENT MID-LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS UNDERNEATH
THE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHICH STRENGTHENS FARTHER
TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...MODEL QPF IS RESPONSE IS MINIMAL.
NEVERTHELESS... SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM IN RESPONSE
TO RISING HEIGHTS...PROBABLY A CAT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGIES WILL DROP INTO THE CWA IN NWLY
UPPER FLOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON OUR AREA BEING
IN THE PATH OF FAVORABLE MCS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. BOTH THE
GFS/NAM HAVE LIGHT QPF RESPONSE...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE NC MTNS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY WED NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE CWA THU
NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF
RESPONSE LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE DUE TO PREVAILING W/WSW DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. HENCE...POPS REMAIN IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FAVORING IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU NIGHT. USING MODEL BLEND..TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OVER
THE WEEKEND...INCREASING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE PIEDMONT WILL
STAY DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVECTION APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS SHOULD
LARGELY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE MTNS. A FEW TSTMS COULD SURVIVE INTO
THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
ANY TSRA MENTION AT KCLT. MOS AND MODEL PROFILES ARE SPLIT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR
NO RESTRICTIONS. AM CONCERNED ABOUT LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING WITH
LIGHT SRLY MIXING AND THE VERY MOIST GROUND...SO WILL HINT AT LOW
CLOUDS WITH A SCT010 LAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK. CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS AT PRESENT.
EXPECT MAINLY CONVECTIVE CUMULUS UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION THROUGH
TUE...WITH FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME.
ELSEWHERE...SCT CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NC MTNS LATE THIS EVENING
MAY APPROACH KAVL. WILL JUST FEATURE VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MIGHT NEED
TEMPO TSRA IF UPSTREAM COVERAGE BECOMES ANY MORE ROBUST. TSTM
CHANCES WILL BE EVEN LOWER ACROSS THE FOOTHILL TAF SITES...WITH
MAINLY JUST CIRRUS CIGS AND OCCASIONAL STRATOCUMULUS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESTRICTIONS AT JUST ABOUT ANY OF
THE SITES GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBY
AT KAVL AND KAND FOR NOW. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ON TUE...WITH PROFILES GENERALLY TOO CAPPED FOR ANY
TSTM MENTION.
OUTLOOK...A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT WITH A DISTURBANCE BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RIDGING WILL RETURN TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 89% HIGH 91% HIGH 87% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 91% HIGH 91% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 90% HIGH 87% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 92% HIGH 94% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 91% HIGH 91% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 88% MED 77% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION TODAY
THAT WILL FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NOT FIRING QUITE AS QUICKLY
AS EXPECTED THIS MRNG OVER OUR CWFA THOUGH HEALTHY CELLS ARE MOVING
THRU THE AUGUSTA GA AREA. HAVE NOT EVEN SEEN CU DEVELOPMENT YET SO
TRIMMED BACK POPS GREATLY THRU NOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
UPWARDS OF 500 J SBCAPE OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT ATTM...BUT POOR
LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE THE SFC PER 12Z FFC RAOB MAY BE CAPPING
THINGS OFF. 12Z NAM AND RECENT RAP RUNS SHOW ABUNDANT CONVECTION BY
MIDDAY WITH AN EARLIER THAN USUAL PEAK IN CAPES...DIMINISHING
GREATLY BY MID AFTN POSSIBLY INDICATING THE MODELS THINK THE EARLY
ACTIVITY WILL USE UP THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS AS WELL AS THE REMAINING 500-800 J CAPES SHOWN LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAINTAINED LATE AFTN PEAK POPS FROM PREV PACKAGE.
ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPTS PER LATEST OBS...ALLOWING FOR FASTER WARMING
IN THE GENERALLY CLEARER THAN ANTICIPATED SKIES THIS AM.
PREV DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM...DEEP DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSE
UPR LOW TODAY...BUT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT ENTERS THE UPR MS
VALLEY. DEEP SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PERSIST ACRS THE SE
STATES AND ADVECT PWATS OF 125-175% OF NORMAL ATOP THE CWFA THRU THE
NEAR TERM. THE MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPR SUPPORT SHUD RESULT IN
SOLID COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...WITH POPS
RAMPING UP FROM SW TO NE. FCST SNDGS SHOW 1500-2000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED
CAPE TODAY...ESP IN THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE OP MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING BY NOON ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) HINT THAT DEBRIS
CIRRUS FROM GULF CONVECTION WILL DELAY THE ONSET HERE TILL MID AFTN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ALL ZONES TODAY. GOOD NEWS
IS HIGH FREEZING LVLS AND MOIST PROFILES SHUD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.
THERE MAY AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS AFTN...WITH DOWNBURST
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
MOST SPOTS WITH THE HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT (INCLUDING THE CAMS) ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
AT LEAST LIKELY POPS LATE THIS EVENING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS
A SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ROUND THE UPSTREAM TROF AND CROSS THE AREA
FROM THE SW. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND GFS MUCAPE FIELDS AND THE FCST
SNDGS...CAPE APPEARS TO REMAIN MARGINAL IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...850 MB FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS...ESP IN THE
PIEDMONT AND BULK SHEAR RAMPS UP TO 35-40 KTS AS WELL...WHICH COULD
SUSTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE...AS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS...WITH THE INCREASED BULK SHEAR AND UPR SUPPORT. DESPITE
HIGH POPS AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...HYDRO THREAT STILL LOOKS
TO BE TOO ISOLD TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. NONE OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAIN LOOK HIGH ENUF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CA
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY MIGHT BE MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MY IMPRESSION OF THE
MODEL DATA IS THAT AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BE A
BIT DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. THAT BRINGS SOME
DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING
PEAK HEATING AND SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FCST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BUT THERE WILL
BE NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE CONVECTION...AND WE MAY SEE SOME
ORGANIZATION THANKS TO A SW 30 KT 850 MB JET. SO...POP WAS TAKEN UP
INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON...
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BACK INTO THE CHC RANGE MONDAY EVENING. THREAT
WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DEEP MOISTURE...BUT UNIMPRESSIVE BUOYANCY.
TEMPS WERE NUDGED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN BECAUSE OF SOME
INTERESTING MODEL DIFFERENCES. A CHANCE WAS KEPT OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
TUESDAY COULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK...IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
MEANWHILE...THE NAM LINGERS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD PRECIP...PROBABLY BECAUSE
OF MUCH IMPROVED BUOYANCY. AM MORE INCLINED TO KEEP THE FCST CLOSER
TO THE GFS WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...FAVORING A
BELOW CLIMO POP. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SRN PLAINS...THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE BE IN THE MCS TRACK?
WE SEE THIS USUALLY AT SOME POINT EVERY JUNE...AS DISTURBANCES MOVE
OVER TOP A SRN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND THEN TRIGGER MCS DEVELOPMENT
WHICH ROLLS DOWN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC.
THIS MIGHT HAPPEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...
WHILE THE NAM HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR BUT WITH SLOWER TIMING THAT
KEEPS IT TO OUR NW BY DAYBREAK. WILL LEAVE TUESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT
WILL NOT GIVE UP ENTIRELY ON SOME PRECIP BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SUNDAY...MCS CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY...
AS THE MOSGUIDE TOPS OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WHICH AT FIRST BLUSH
SEEMS OUTRAGEOUS. NOT INCLINED AT THIS POINT TO RAISE TEMPS TEN
DEGREES AS 850MB FLOW IS NOT THAT STRONG FROM WEST. EXPECT SOME DEEP
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD PREVENT FULL SUN...SO I AM CONTENT FOR NOW TO MERELY NUDGE
UPWARD A CATEGORY OR SO. THE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT FRONT COMING IN ON
THURSDAY...PERHAPS WITH A LINEAR MCS FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. STILL GOOD INDICATION THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW AND N FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LOWERED SOME PRECIP CHANCES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
ACRS THE REGION STARTING AROUND MIDDAY AND LINGERING WELL INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE FOCUSED ON DIURNAL PEAK IN ACTIVITY WITH A TEMPO
0920/0924. VCSH SURROUNDING THAT PEAK TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER PROBS
BEFORE AND AFTER. A TS IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION PRIOR TO
20Z. BEFORE THEN...MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME CELLS IN THE AREA...SO HAVE
A TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 18Z TO 21Z. THEREAFTER...THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION MAY STAY TO THE WEST ACRS THE MTNS. GUIDANCE CONVERGING
ON WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND SOME FOG DEVELOPING WITH WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A
DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING THRU THE SC MIDLANDS WILL PRODUCE
SLY GUSTS AT KCLT AROUND MIDDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
CLUSTER.
ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN CONCERN IS GOING TO BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACRS THE REGION STARTING BY EARLY AFTN...AND LINGERING WELL INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE TYPICAL PEAK HEATING
HOURS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACRS THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...ESP FOR KAVL. STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE RAIN-COOLED AIR AND CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF
THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 83%
KGSP HIGH 97% HIGH 94% HIGH 90% MED 73%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 97% HIGH 94% HIGH 94% MED 73%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 91% MED 77% MED 70%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
940 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION/ACCAS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD. THERE WAS ALSO SOME CONVECTION HEADING EAST ACROSS WY
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR INDICATES THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED TIME ON SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
SPREADING EAST LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE THEN BECOMING REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AND WITH DECENT MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT TO
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. QUESTION THEN
BECOMES WHERE THE RIPEST CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA. THERE LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY DECENT
CAP THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ..WITH SOMEWHAT OF A CAP...BUT NOT AS STRONG...ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SHEAR PROFILE THIS FAR NORTH LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD...WITH 50-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA.
LACK OF INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A HINDERING
FACTOR...WITH THE REALLY POTENT INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH.
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT A GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO
NOT MENTION SEVERE DUE TO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DOUBTS AND WILL
GIVE LATER SHIFTS A CHANCE TO GET A BETTER LOOK AT THINGS. HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COMMON DUE TO
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AND MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THOSE TIMES.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS SHOWING A RIDGING PATTERN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEY ALSO
SUGGEST SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE OVER THE CREST OF THE UPPER RIDGE. VERY DIFFICULT AT
THIS TIME TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES
SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE POPS AND TOOK A BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH. ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR A FAIRLY HEALTHY WAVE AND SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING SO DO HAVE
HIGHER POPS IN FOR THAT TIME. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO STAY
MILD/WARM WITH TYPICAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
A SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG WITH MID LEVEL WAA WILL
BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ACCAS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...UNSURE
IF ANY OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED THUS...JUST PUT IN THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND WILL WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE VFR
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH THROUGH ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH WINDS
GOING TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AND INCREASING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1005 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE MID STATE AS WE GO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
PATCHY FOG EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG PLATEAU IN THE
OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE
BEING REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
.CLIMATE...NASHVILLE STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ON TUESDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. SINCE RECORD KEEPING
BEGAN BACK IN 1870 THE LATEST IN THE YEAR THAT NASHVILLE HAS
REACHED THE 90 DEGREE MARK WAS JULY 5TH 1893. THE EARLIEST WAS
APRIL 9TH 2011. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 90 DEGREES IN
NASHVILLE IS MAY 29TH.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION TO TERMINATE AT
CSV BY 03Z. FOLLOWING THIS...SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE CSV BY 12Z WITH
VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM...1-3SM POSSIBLE FOR CKV AND BNA. PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE FOR YOUR TUESDAY WITH JUST A FEW CLDS AT THE 4KFT LEVEL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
RADAR INDICATING THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
SPRINGFIELD TN SW THROUGH DICKSON COUNTY. LAPS DATA STILL SHOWING
ELEVATED HELICITY VALUES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THUS...WILL DELAY CANCELLING ADDITIONAL WATCH AREAS UNTIL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF CURRENT WATCH COUNTIES. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...SOME MINOR ROTATION WAS STILL INDICATED OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR STILL REFRAINS FROM ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUT WILL STILL WAIT FOR THE FROPA AND WILL THEN COMMENCE WITH
CANCELLATIONS.
OTHERWISE...INTENSE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLATEAU
CONTINUES. THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER...APPRECIABLE SHEAR STILL EXISTS
OVER THE CURRENT WATCH AREA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
446 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 MBAR COLD TEMP AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
21Z. THIS AXIS OF COLDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN SWEEPING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS OF CURRENT WW SHORTLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY
IN THOSE AREAS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SREF RUN WEAKENS INSTABILITY
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
OUT BY H-TRIPLE-R HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. THINK BEST SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND BEGIN WEAKENING BY 03Z AS IT
APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 03Z AND 06Z.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
HE BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN
MIDDLE TN AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST.
LATEST LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STACKED NICELY AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM IOWA. THESE 2 FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PHASE AND WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE ISOL TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG LEVELS.
THEN...LATER TONIGHT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID STATE...A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN REACH STRONG LEVELS WITH
HIGH WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. TIMING OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 8PM TO 2AM ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND 11PM TO 5AM ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR DATA APPEARS TO WANT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES INTO EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
ON MONDAY...NAM MODEL WILL BE TOSSED AS GRAPHICS DEPICT NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS AT 18Z...AND THIS IN TURN HAS EVOKED OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NUMERICAL MET DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SFC WITH DEWS IN THE LOWER 60S. GFS AND MAV DATA SHOWS EVEN
LOWER DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CAPES REINFORCED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING PATTERN. COULD SEE ISOL TO SCT STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION...WIND AND HAIL.
MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR TO WORK IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS
EASTWARD. POPS WILL THEREFORE SHUTDOWN WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A DEFINITIVE WARMING TREND WILL BE AT HAND AS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER TX AND OUR HEIGHTS RISE.
IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS FOR SAT OR SUN. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF PLATEAU.
VERSUS THE MEX GUIDANCE...AGAIN...THE MEX APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT 97 AT BNA FOR WED. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
AND GO 94. A GENERAL UNDERCUT WILL BE UTILIZED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 66 86 65 90 / 70 30 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 65 85 62 92 / 70 30 20 10
CROSSVILLE 65 79 61 84 / 70 50 20 10
COLUMBIA 66 87 66 92 / 70 30 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 66 87 67 92 / 70 30 20 10
WAVERLY 65 86 64 92 / 60 30 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH SE TX
CURRENTLY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DID NOT TAKE LONG TO DEVELOP WITH
LIFT FROM THE TROUGH...DAY TIME HEATING AND JUICY AIR OF 1.8-1.9
INCH PRECIP WATER. SHORT TERM PART OF THE TAFS ALL HAVE TSRA IN
SOME SHAPE/FORM EXCEPT FOR KCLL WHERE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST.
ALSO NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL REACH KGLS BUT WILL LEAVE VCTS FOR
NOW. MAY PROBLEM WILL BE SLOW STORM MOTIONS OVER THE HOUSTON METRO
SO KIAH/KHOU/KSGR COULD HAVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR NEXT 2-4
HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS ACTIVITY ENDING AROUND 22Z-23Z AND THINK
THIS MAY BE ON TRACK. KEPT THIS TREND FOR THE TAFS. OVERNIGHT
EXPECT ANY CIGS TO CLEAR OUT AND IF ANYTHING MAY GET SOME PATCHY
FOG AT USUAL SPOTS LIKE KCXO/KLBX. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS TOMORROW
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
DISCUSSION...
PER ONGOING RADAR TRENDS WILL BE GOING WITH INCREASED POPS FOR ALL
OF OUR CWA WITH THE UPDATE. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS REACHED THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS FOR TODAY AND NOT REALLY SEEING HOW ALL THIS WILL
STOP UNTIL TONIGHT (WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING). NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
SFC BOUNDARY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO FOCUS ON BUT BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN A LIKELY IN THE SLOWER MOVING STRONGER STORMS. 41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
TODAY COULD BE A RAINY DAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A
SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD OUR AREA. SCATTERED SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FURTHER
WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE SOUTHEAST TEXAS FAVORABLY
POSITIONED IN A DEEP TROF AXIS. THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARIES FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE PARTS OF OUR AREA A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE AND PLAN ON ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES ON THE MORNING UPDATE AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. STILL
EXPECTING A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN CARRY MOSTLY TOKEN 10%
POPS OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ANTICIPATED WELL INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THESE READINGS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
APPROACH MID JUNE RECORDS. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 73 93 74 94 / 60 40 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 74 93 75 94 / 60 40 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 79 89 80 88 / 50 30 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
544 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR ABUNDANT
STRATUS DEVELOPING ON THE CAPROCK IN A MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME.
PATTERN RECOGNITION DOES NOT INSPIRE OPTIMISM THAT THESE CLOUDS
WILL BUDGE ANYTIME SOON AS E-SE WINDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING. RECENT HRRR RUNS LOOK CREDIBLE IN KEEPING STRATUS
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH 16Z OR SO UNTIL THIS LAYER BEGINS
ERODING FROM THE OUTSIDE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FOG ESPECIALLY IF
ALREADY LOW STRATUS LOWERS EVEN FURTHER...BUT RAP SOUNDINGS ARE MORE
INDICATIVE OF STRATUS AND KEEP THE SURFACE LAYER MIXED. TYPICALLY
WE SEE FOG IN SUCH SETUPS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK...SO IF THIS MATERIALIZES WE PLAN TO ADDRESS THIS WITH
NOWCASTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGH TEMPS NEED TO BE TRIMMED
A BIT SOME AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR DELAYED INSOLATION...BUT WILL
DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO MAKE THIS CALL.
&&
.AVIATION...
RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR STRATUS AT LBB IN A
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL LATER
THIS MORNING ONCE SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN THIN AND BEGIN ERODING
THIS STUBBORN STRATUS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT VFR CONDS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO RESUME UNTIL AROUND 17Z AS RECENT RAINFALL IS ADDING
TO KEEP THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATED EVEN LONGER THAN NORMAL. FOG
THREAT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP IF STRATUS BOTTOMS OUT ANY FURTHER. CDS WILL ESCAPE THIS
LOW CLOUD AND FOG THREAT COMPLETELY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY
SELY WINDS AROUND 11 KNOTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER MANAGED TO DEAL MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF NOCTURNAL TSTRMS TO THE
CWA AFTER A LARGE MCS CLIPPED OUR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTS PRE-
DAWN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXIT OUR CWA BY 12Z. THEREAFTER...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY AS LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
FILTERS IN FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ADD TO THIS BUILDING
HEIGHT FIELDS AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UNWELCOME RETURN TO DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
IS IN STORE.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY IS HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF
OVERNIGHT RAINS...SOME OF WHICH PROVED QUITE HEAVY ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK. AFTER NOCTURNAL PRECIP FRI NIGHT STUNTED MAX TEMPS ON
THE CAPROCK BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES...WILL GIVE OUR SOIL MOISTURE THE
BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT AND KEEP TODAY`S TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE AREA WIDE AND DISMISS THE HOTTEST MET NUMBERS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS
THE GFS SHOWS OR THROUGH FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS TO 100-102 OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A BIT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH WHICH IS A BIT UNUSUAL
CONSIDERING THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND
HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE
REGION SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME DOWN BACK IN THE LOWER 90S
SOUTH PLAINS/UPPER 90S ROLLING PLAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THIS WEEK.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 90 65 98 64 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 89 66 98 66 98 / 10 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 89 67 99 67 98 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 91 67 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 91 68 98 68 97 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 93 67 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 91 68 98 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 70 101 72 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
SPUR 92 69 98 71 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 93 70 100 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/99/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW
ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR CIG/VSBY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE ONSET OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 17Z. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD IMPACT TERMINALS IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN 18 AND
22Z WHEN STRONG SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO IFR LEVELS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE HOUSTON AREA BY 22Z AND THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY 23Z. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER ROBUST WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 AND
1.8 INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE REGION AND
SE TX WILL LIE IN THE ASCENT REGION OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY.
300 MB ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER
THE REGION AND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS PRETTY DEEP THROUGH OUT THE
850-700 LAYER.
CONVECTION HAS WANED THIS EVENING AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FAVORED THE RAP IN THE SHORT TERM
WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA
DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE IN AND AROUND MATAGORDA BAY. THE TEXAS
TECH 3 KM WRF SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS. FEEL POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE NUDGED A BIT
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AND LOWERED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND
RAISED POPS A TAD FOR THE PRE-DAWN PERIOD OVER THE SW ZONES. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 91 73 93 74 / 10 30 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 92 74 93 75 / 10 40 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 87 79 89 80 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
124 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND
WEAKEN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID AIR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS TODAY...WARM ADVECTIONAND
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
THIS INCREASE AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT GSO AND RNK WHERE
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED NEARLY .25 INCHES SINCE LAST EVENING.
MUCH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE TWO AREAS WHERE CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR HIGHEST ARE IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THE SECOND AREA IS
NW NC AND FAR SW VA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
PER THE HRRR MODELS...DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IN THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AND MORE PULSE PER WEAK WINDS ALOFT
ALTHOUGH IF MORE HEATING DOES DEVELOP THEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT SOME WIND THREAT PER HIGH DCAPES UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE ANY EVENING CONVECTION WIND DOWN SOME WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
RESIDUAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST HEADS EAST.
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SATURATED/JUICY OVERNIGHT AND WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SE...EXPECT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE BETTER BAND OF LIFT ARRIVES
ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER TIMING OFF GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT
SO PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY POPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THE SREF DEPICTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIP LATE. QUITE A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 60S AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER EARLY DURING THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.(WILL ADD
MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY TO HWO AND MONITOR FOR
FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER SATURATED GROUNDS.)
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART THE AREA WITH THE
FRONT... HOWEVER WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY WHILE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WITH RICHER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES CLOSE TO ADJMAV FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. PLAYED LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ON
MILD SIDE FROM UPPER 50S IN THE WEST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO MID 80S
IN THE EAST. LOWS TUESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE A RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH MODELS HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST AND INTO OUR
AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE QUICK PROGRESS EAST...PASSING FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
SIMILAR IN THE SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TIMING AND THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW...WITH THE GFS ONLY A FEW HOURS FASTER. AT ANY RATE...AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION...
BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
FOR DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE DURING NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A MIX OF CU/AC ACROSS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHEN WE COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT...THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS AREA OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION PLUS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA...WILL RESULT IN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MOST OF
MONDAY.
THE BAND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST MONDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. EACH SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT OF DEVELOPMENT OF NIGHT TIME VALLEY AND RIVER FOG. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO VFR BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING MORE
SUB-VFR IN SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS/NF
AVIATION...JH/PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
956 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND
WEAKEN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID AIR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS TODAY...WARM ADVECTIONAND
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
THIS INCREASE AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT GSO AND RNK WHERE
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED NEARLY .25 INCHES SINCE LAST EVENING.
MUCH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE TWO AREAS WHERE CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR HIGHEST ARE IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THE SECOND AREA IS
NW NC AND FAR SW VA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
PER THE HRRR MODELS...DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IN THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AND MORE PULSE PER WEAK WINDS ALOFT
ALTHOUGH IF MORE HEATING DOES DEVELOP THEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT SOME WIND THREAT PER HIGH DCAPES UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE ANY EVENING CONVECTION WIND DOWN SOME WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
RESIDUAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST HEADS EAST.
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SATURATED/JUICY OVERNIGHT AND WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SE...EXPECT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE BETTER BAND OF LIFT ARRIVES
ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER TIMING OFF GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT
SO PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY POPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THE SREF DEPICTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIP LATE. QUITE A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 60S AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER EARLY DURING THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.(WILL ADD
MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY TO HWO AND MONITOR FOR
FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER SATURATED GROUNDS.)
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART THE AREA WITH THE
FRONT... HOWEVER WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY WHILE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WITH RICHER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES CLOSE TO ADJMAV FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. PLAYED LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ON
MILD SIDE FROM UPPER 50S IN THE WEST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO MID 80S
IN THE EAST. LOWS TUESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE A RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH MODELS HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST AND INTO OUR
AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE QUICK PROGRESS EAST...PASSING FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
SIMILAR IN THE SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TIMING AND THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW...WITH THE GFS ONLY A FEW HOURS FASTER. AT ANY RATE...AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION...
BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
FOR DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE DURING NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MIXED CANOPY OF STRATO-CU/AC CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. EXPECT HEATING/MIXING
TO GRADUALLY CAUSE EARLY VFR CIGS AND PATCHY MVFR FOG TO MIX OUT
TO A SCTD/BKN CU LAYER BETWEEN 4-6K FEET BY AFTERNOON.
OTRW HEIGHTS INCREASE ALOFT LATER TODAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTH FROM THE GULF WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN PWATS BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EPSCLY MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN JUST
WHERE MORE CONCENTRATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP WITH MODELS VARYING FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST TO A SCATTERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
EVENING. GIVEN CURRENT PUSH OF MOISTURE AND FORECAST INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL THETA-E WILL INCLUDE A VCTS OR VCSH MENTION AT MOST
SITES FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR NOW.
APPEARS THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MAY INCREASE
SHOWER COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ESPCLY ON MONDAY WHEN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE MVFR TO AREAS OF IFR.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. EACH SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
DEVELOPMENT OF NIGHT TIME VALLEY AND RIVER FOG. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO VFR BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT
BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING MORE SUB-VFR IN
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS/NF
AVIATION...JH/KM/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
959 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA DUE TO WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
ENHANCING THE LAKE BREEZE/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY...WITH SUBSEQUENT
COOLING LOWERING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TO 3 TO6 DEGREES F. SOME OF
THE WEB CAMERAS ARE SUPPORTING THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWING
FOG THAT HAD BEEN OUT OVER THE LAKE HUGGING THE SHORE LINE FROM
MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO THE ILLINOIS BORDER. ISSUED AN SPS FOR THESE
NEAR-SHORE LOCATIONS AND MONITORING CLOSELY FOR ANY EXPANSION THAT
WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES.
BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND RAP SFC VSBY FORECASTS SHOW AN EXPANSION
OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS VSBYS THAT COVERS MOST OF THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES (RAP) OR MOST OF SE WI EAST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE (00Z
NAM) BY 08-09Z BUT NEITHER OF THESE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. HAS
BEEN STEADY EROSION OF FOG OVER THE LAKE FROM EAST OF MKE TO SOUTH
OF WIND POINT...SO LEARY OF FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE 00Z NAM FILLING THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
DEVELOPING LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS ALL OF SRN WI...AND RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AS CLOSE AS 500 FT
TO THE SURFACE CAUSING ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FOG. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG TO INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
EASILY DEVELOP FOG IN MOIST...LIGHT WIND SITUATIONS/WI RVR
VLY...BUU...ETB ETC/ AND LEFT PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VSBYS ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND
LIGHT WINDS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NARROW BAND OF VFR CU
LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF SE WI IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG AXIS
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 06Z. WITH THE 00Z NAM
FILLING THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND DEVELOPING LIGHT WEST WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF SRN WI...AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS AS CLOSE AS 500 FT TO THE SURFACE CAUSING ENOUGH
TURBULENT MIXING...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG...BUT LOCAL
VSBYS COULD FALL TO 1 MILE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 06Z...AND EXPANDED
BACK UP TO COVER THE NORTHERN ZONE AS WEB CAMS INDICATED OFFSHORE
FOG FROM SHEBOYGAN UNDER A MILE EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT
NOT AS DENSE AS FARTHER SOUTH. GENERAL IMPROVING TREND CONTINUES
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SO ONLY EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MORNING...BUT WILL MONITOR AS SOME MODELS INDICATE FOG TO RE-
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NW INTO THE CWA FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN LOWER MI HAD POPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF THE DELLS.
CU FIELD BUMPY THERE SO WILL KEEP THIS IDEA GOING FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CENTERS ON STRATUS/FOG TRENDS.
LOW LEVELS STILL MOIST WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME. PRESSURE PATTERN IS
WEAK. UPPER LOW ACRS IN/OH SHIFTING EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
IN WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SREF VSBY PROG SHOWS GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF LESS THAN 3 MILE BUT NOT
LESS THAN 1 MILE IN THE EASTERN LOCALES OF THE CWA. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IS CLOSER TO THE LAKE. MOS GUIDANCE HINTING AT VSBYS
DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD NW UPPER FLOW. NOSE OF 850 JET REACHES SRN IA BY 00Z. SRN WI
WILL BE IN A FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT POSITION OF THE EASTERN
LAKES UPPER JET. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE
600 MILLIBARS. LOW LEVELS HOWEVER ARE FULL OF CIN...ON THE ORDER OF
250-350 J/KG. HOWEVER NAM DOES SHOW AN ARC OF 600 FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. ABOVE 650-700 MILLIBARS ON THE
SOUNDINGS THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY DRY. PER COLLAB WITH GRB AND ARX WILL PUT IN A SMALL POP IN
PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN CWA BUT AM CONCERNED THAT DRY LOW LEVELS MAY
BE TOO OVERWHELMING. 925 TEMPS PER THE NAM/ECMWF RISE INTO THE
21-23C RANGE. GFS COOLER.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SCENARIO. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIKELY STAYING SOUTH OF
CHICAGO. THERE CONTINUES TO BE WIDE MODEL VARIABILITY ON PLACEMENT
OF THE QPF BOTH IN SPACE AND TIME. IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE TWO
DISTINCT ROUNDS OF PRECIP...THE FIRST ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM ADVECTION/FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AHEAD OF THE LOW. THERE IS SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...BUT IT ISN/T A MAJOR FACTOR. THERE IS GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND
THIS COMPLIMENTS THE LOWER LEVEL THERMAL FORCING NICELY. THE
CONCERN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN THE APPARENT DISCONNECT
BETWEEN THE RATHER SOUTHERN LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
QPF THAT SEEMS TOO FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO IT. THE NAM CONTINUES
TO LOOK TOO FAR NORTH...WHILE THE GFS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. THE
EC/GEMNH LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR BUT MAY BE A TAD FAST...BUT ARE MORE
SOUTH THAN THE NAM. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS US IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND ELEVATED
CAPES AVAILABLE. CONFIDENCE ISN/T VERY HIGH FOR THAT THIS FAR
NORTH.
THE SECOND ROUND COMES WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE DEEPER
AND LARGER FORCING MECHANISM...THIS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP AREA
FARTHER NORTH.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN STANDS TO GET SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME TRAINING ACTIVITY. UNLESS
IT SHIFTS SOUTH...THAT IS OUR BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING QUITE PLEASANT.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEY SHOW A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
MOSTLY TO THE WEST.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MVFR CU IN KMSN AND
MAINLY VFR CU FIELD IN WRN CWA WHILE STRATUS HAS LIFTED TO AN MVFR
DECK IN THE EAST. HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IN SRN LWR MI...THOUGH AS
TIME GOES BY THE SURFACE/925/850 FLOW BECOMES LESS ADVECTIVE IN
NATURE OF THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS. HOWEVER STILL PLANNING FOR MORE
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
WIND REGIME. FOLLOWED AN AMALGAM OF GFS/MET MOS IN THIS REGARD.
MARINE...EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
PORT WASHINGTON DUE TO PERSISTENT LOWER VSBYS AOB 1SM MILE. FOR NOW,
HAVE THIS GOING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
630 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A
SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA RIDING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
THERE. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE WEAK RIDGING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AS SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS...WITH SATURATION NEARLY UP TO
800MB BUT PLENTY OF DRYING ABOVE THAT. THE RESULT WAS EXPANSIVE
STRATUS AND SOME FOG THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAS REALLY HELPED DISSIPATE THE STRATUS...THOUGH. AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA WITH RESPECT TO WARMTH EXHIBITS 850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C PER
12Z RAOBS...WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...850MB TEMPS ARE 22-26C OR 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. 700MB TEMPS ARE ALSO QUITE WARM...RANGING FROM 14-17C FROM
RAPID CITY AND AMARILLO WEST TO SALT LAKE CITY. TO OUR
NORTHWEST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GOING ALL DAY
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...PUSHED EAST BY THE
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTING AND SHEARING OUT INTO
WYOMING BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS ALL THE WARM AIR OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL SPILL EAST AND TRY TO HEAD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING SOME
BLOCKING TO THE WARM AIR. AS A RESULT...WHILE 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BY
00Z WEDNESDAY TO 14C NORTH TO 18C SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...READINGS OF 24-36C LOOK COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS...A MUCH WARMER DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.
IF WE CAN MIX UP TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPS...READINGS WOULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...TEMPERATURES SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE MID MAY.
WITH THE WARMER AIR COMING AT US...THERE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION. TONIGHT APPEARS DRY WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM 925MB TO 700MB ALL FOCUSED WEST OF THE AREA. IN
FACT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH THE CURRENT CLOUDS
DISSIPATING WITH DIURNAL COOLING GIVEN THEIR NOW CELLULAR NATURE.
ON TUESDAY...THAT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
PROGGED TO BYPASS US TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH ITS RELATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
SOME VERY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE 10.06Z/12Z NAM...10.06Z HIRES ARW AND 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN
ALL CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
APPEAR TO COME OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADDED 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER WITH
THE CHANCES BECAUSE OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB LIKELY ABSORBING SOME
OF THE RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL HAMPER TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TO
THEIR FULL MIXING VALUES MENTIONED EARLIER.
LASTLY...FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SKIES CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY...
LIGHT WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MOIST SOILS ARE ALL VERY
FAVORABLE FOR FOG. THIS LOOKS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN VALLEYS WHERE
EVAPOTRANSPORATION OF MOISTURE CAN POOL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND
IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
THE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
PERIOD...PRIMARILY RELATED TO ALL THE WARM AIR COMING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SYNOPTICALLY...THE MAIN FEATURE TO LOCK
ONTO IS THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...
WHICH MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AS THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THERE. USING THE 10.12Z MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS
PAST MODELS...A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS CAN PLAY OUT:
1. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND LIFTING TO THE SIOUX FALLS AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN VARIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING THIS WILL
HELP BREAK THE CAPPING PRESENT BETWEEN 650-700MB...RESULTING IN AN
MCS WHICH THEN CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD BRING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-15Z WEDNESDAY. THE MCS COULD BE A BOW
ECHO. THE 10.06Z/12Z HI RES ARW MODELS...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY GOOD
STORM SCALE MODEL FORECASTS...HINT AT THIS SCENARIO.
2. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FIRE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CAPPING.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THESE ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AS IN SCENARIO 1 WHICH
WOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN SUGGESTS
THIS SCENARIO.
3. NOTHING HAPPENS OR MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST TUESDAY NIGHT
LIKE THE 10.12Z ECMWF...AND WE HAVE 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO IOWA LATE IN THE
DAY MOVES IN.
SO FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD EVEN END
UP DRY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCES OF 60-70 GOING PER
SCENARIOS 1 AND 2...AND DID SHIFT THEM NORTH TO COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS. ALL 3 ABOVE SCENARIOS SUGGEST THE SECOND PART OF SCENARIO
3 IS TRUE...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALMOST LOOK LIKE FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF A
SURFACE LOW WHICH IS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...I.E. A MORE
WINTER/SPRING LIKE APPEARANCE. THUS...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTED THE CHANCES FARTHER NORTH TO COME
INTO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALSO ENDED UP COOLING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
COOLED FURTHER.
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST GETS EASIER. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
BUILD UP THROUGH THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
KICK THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AT 00Z THURSDAY
SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AND DRYING TO
OCCUR. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALSO SENDS 850MB TEMPS DOWNWARD TO 10-12C
BY 18Z THURSDAY...THUS EXPECT COOLER BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
10.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
THE DEEP PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS GOING TO EJECT OUT ON FRIDAY
WHILE NEW TROUGHING REFORMS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THAT
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...IT PUSHES AND
FLATTENS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TOWARDS US. HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRY...WITH ANY
CONVECTION GOING UP WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN IA
IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE. HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THAT WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS EAST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION INTO US. CONSENSUS CHANCES OF 60 WEST TO 20
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND 30-40 FOR SATURDAY SEEM REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS GROWING AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS OF AN MCS TO
FORM FRIDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN IOWA...WHICH THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. IF THIS INDEED HAPPENS...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER US
COULD BE GREATLY REDUCED AS THE MCS TRAPS ANY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TOWARDS US. BEYOND SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
HANDLING OF THAT EJECTING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
SUGGESTIONS OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPROACHING THE AREA
ON SUNDAY PER 10.12Z CANADIAN/GFS...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE 10.12Z ECMWF STILL HAS THAT
FRONT BACK IN THE DAKOTAS KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THESE TWO MODEL
GROUPS BECOME REVERSED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN AND THE CANADIAN/GFS HAVING IT SOUTH OF US.
THUS...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY FEATURE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK AROUND NORMAL
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP OR COOL DOWN BEING IN A MEAN NORTHWEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
SHORT TERM RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR QUIET PERIOD AND MAINLY VFR STRETCH.
DIURNAL APPEARANCE TO REMAINING LOW CLOUD FIELD WILL MAKE FOR QUICK
CLEARING THIS EVENING AND WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG REFORMING OVERNIGHT. AS SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH...FEELING IS BEST FOG CHANCE / IFR / WILL BE IN WISCONSIN...
ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS FORM ELSEWHERE.
AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. ON TUESDAY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR OR FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL LIKELY SETUP AND BEGIN
TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS / VFR / EXPECTED
BUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH TO MISSOURI...AND RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...AN UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED IN NORTHWEST IA WITH 500MB
STANDARDIZED DEVIATIONS OF 1.5 BELOW NORMAL. MAIN SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WHICH MOVED
NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...HAS
LIFTED INTO NORTHERN MN AND WESTERN UPPER MI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THESE ARE A RESULT
OF COOL AIR ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ALLOWING FOR SURFACE BASED
CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG GIVEN TEMPERATURES OF 65-75F AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST IA AT THE SURFACE HAS PROVIDED A FOCUSED AREA
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH
THE MAIN CLEARING LINE TO THE WEST OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE UPPER LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD...TRACKING IT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
WESTERN OHIO BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE PUSHED BY
AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA HEADING TO THE EAST. THIS
MEANS THE DRYING AND CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL EVENTUALLY GET HERE. TIMING IS IMPORTANT...THOUGH...BECAUSE IF
THE CLEARING MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THE
RECENT RAINS WILL FAVOR FOG AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
VARIOUS MODEL 700MB AND 500MB RH FIELDS SUGGEST THESE WILL DRY OUT
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT 925-850MB RH
FIELDS STAY PRETTY MOIST TO FULLY SATURATED ALL THE WAY WEST TO SAY
FARMINGTON MN AT 12Z MONDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE ON A RADIATION FOG
EVENT IS VERY LOW. HIRES ARW VISIBILITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE BULK
OF THE FOG ENDS UP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF MN AND IA AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERN WI...LEAVING OUR AREA MAYBE WITH SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG AT BEST. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA WITH THE THOUGHT OF LOW STRATUS
IN PLACE TONIGHT. BETTER SHOT FOR CLEARING SHOULD COME DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...SPREADING WEST TO EAST...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
AWAY AND DAYTIME MIXING CAN GET RID OF THE CLOUDS.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION...ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECTING
THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. BY 12Z MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY. ON MONDAY...AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH IS
PROGGED TO LAY UP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG PLUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH MAY YIELD
SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THUS...HAVE KEPT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES
GOING...MAINLY AFTER 15Z AND OVER CENTRAL WI. NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
PARAMETER WOULD FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM OVER SOUTHEAST
WI...AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF WIND SHOULD ALLOW FOR JUST A VERY SLOW DROP. A BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE IN THIS SITUATION...RESULTING IN LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GRADUALLY MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C FAVOR
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
FOCUS REMAINS ON POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST REMAINS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. PLENTY OF WARM AIR WILL EXIST
UNDER THE RIDGE WITH 850MB STANDARDIZED TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
CLIMBING TO 1.5-2.5 ABOVE NORMAL OVER KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGING AND
WARMING TO HAVE A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. HOW FAR NORTH THIS WARM
FRONT GETS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/FLOODING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE FEATURE HELPING TO PULL THE WARM FRONT NORTH APPEARS TO BE THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS UPPER LOW
COMES ACROSS UTAH AND WYOMING ON TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF IT SHOULD PROPEL THE FRONT NORTH TO AT LEAST I-70 BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY PER MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 09.12Z NAM/CANADIAN LIFT IT
ALMOST TO I-80 IN IOWA AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE IT ENDS UP AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY IS CRITICAL BECAUSE THERE IS A VERY STRONG CONSENSUS FOR
MCS ACTIVITY TO FIRE JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING...ON THE
EDGE OF THE 700MB CAPPING...THEN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST PER CORFIDI
VECTORS. MODELS TRENDS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST A
FARTHER SOUTH POSITION WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT IT IS STILL HARD TO
SAY AT THIS TIME WHETHER IT GETS BOTTLED UP NEAR THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER OR GETS PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS US HWY 20. SINCE THE TREND
HAS BEEN SOUTH...SHIFTED THE POPS ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO COME BETTER IN-LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS. THESE
MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN LATER FORECASTS.
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST TIME PERIOD RIGHT NOW FOR AN MCS WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90...WOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE:
1. SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
EVENING SKIES AND MOIST SOILS.
2. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 14-17C NORTH TO SOUTH.
3. POTENTIAL FOR A DRIER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE MCS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTING OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE MAY NOT BE ANY INSTABILITY LEFT BY THE TIME THE
UPPER LOW...LIKELY A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE NOW...BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. 09.12Z GFS/CANADIAN ARE DRY...BUT
THE 09.12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS SOME ISO-SCT CONVECTION...THUS SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS
EXISTS FOR A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AMPLIFYING A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SETS UP A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING TO TAKE THAT SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
AT THE TIME NEAR/OVER THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A DRIER...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FORECAST. A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND NORMAL. ON FRIDAY...PART OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
REST OF IT APPEARS TO RETROGRADE WEST SLIGHTLY. THE PART THAT EJECTS
NORTHEAST HELPS TO PUSH THE RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...YIELDING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A COLD FRONT APPROACH/CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...
REQUIRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAY BE DEALING WITH
MCS ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...THOUGH PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE MCSS WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THE COLD FRONT WILL BE. THE
09.12Z GFS/ECMWF HANG IT UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS LINGERING...COULD BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST IA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
WEAKENING AS IT DOES AND ENDING UP IN IN/ON/LOWER MI BY 18Z MON.
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE -SHRA ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
WITH THE -SHRA...PERHAPS ISOLATED/LCL IFR IN ANY TSRA THAT MAY
DEVELOP. LIFT EXITS/WANES QUICKLY AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT PLENTY OF SFC-850MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW.
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AS THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL COOLING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BKN/OVC CLOUD DECKS
TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT VSBYS OF 1-5SM BR STILL
LOOK TO OCCUR WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER QUICKLY MON MORNING AS THE DRYING NORTHWEST
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE THE MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK TO
HANG ON AT KRST UNTIL 17-18Z AND 19-20Z AT KLSE...UNTIL SOME WEAK
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
606 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TONIGHT IS PEGGING DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES AND
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY IT.
THE INITIAL RAIN BAND HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY
LATE MORNING. THE NEXT MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED CHANNEL OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850-925MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE 09.05 HRRR AND 09.00Z ARW/NMM RUNS ALL
ARE SHOWING THE NORTHERN END OF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE REDEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY STARTS TO INCREASE.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY DUE TO WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR
AND LOW INSTABILITY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADOES. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ON UP TO THE
INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW. THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE FASTER
MOVING THAN WHAT YOU WOULD TYPICALLY SEE WITH NST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
TODAY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH 03Z.
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILL IN/WEAKEN TONIGHT AS
WELL AS DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL MCS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST...A POOL OF WARM
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C PLUS NOSING UP INTO IOWA. THE
QUESTION GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS WITH WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP AND WHETHER IT WILL EXTEND UP INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA. THE 09.00Z NAM IS THE STRONGEST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THIS LLJ AND BRINGS THE NOSE RIGHT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER 09.00Z GUIDANCE PAINTS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG/NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS ADVERTISED WITH THE NAM. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND TRANSITION TO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. DETAILS WILL UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SCENARIO THAT WILL INCLUDE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.
BEYOND THIS...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS RIDGING
SETS UP FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM COMES IN
ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCT SHRA AND ISOLD T ACTIVITY TODAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FROM VFR EARLY THIS MORNING INTO MVFR RANGE IN THE
15-16Z TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS INTO NORTHERN IL. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT/LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. PLAN ON
FURTHER DETERIORATION INTO LOWER-END IFR/LIFR VIS AND CIGS BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
339 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TONIGHT IS PEGGING DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES AND
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY IT.
THE INITIAL RAIN BAND HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY
LATE MORNING. THE NEXT MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED CHANNEL OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850-925MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE 09.05 HRRR AND 09.00Z ARW/NMM RUNS ALL
ARE SHOWING THE NORTHERN END OF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE REDEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY STARTS TO INCREASE.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY DUE TO WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR
AND LOW INSTABILITY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADOES. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ON UP TO THE
INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW. THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE FASTER
MOVING THAN WHAT YOU WOULD TYPICALLY SEE WITH NST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
TODAY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH 03Z.
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILL IN/WEAKEN TONIGHT AS
WELL AS DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL MCS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST...A POOL OF WARM
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C PLUS NOSING UP INTO IOWA. THE
QUESTION GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS WITH WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP AND WHETHER IT WILL EXTEND UP INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA. THE 09.00Z NAM IS THE STRONGEST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THIS LLJ AND BRINGS THE NOSE RIGHT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER 09.00Z GUIDANCE PAINTS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG/NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS ADVERTISED WITH THE NAM. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND TRANSITION TO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. DETAILS WILL UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SCENARIO THAT WILL INCLUDE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.
BEYOND THIS...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS RIDGING
SETS UP FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM COMES IN
ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
UPPER LOW BECOMING CLOSED OFF NOW AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING AHEAD OF IT HAS BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAILING LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
START DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK. SOME BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN CURRENT BAND AND MAIN FORCING AREA BUT WITH UPPER LOW EVEN
CLOSER ON SUNDAY...BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS LACK OF CAP
ALLOWS AUTO CONVECT TO OCCUR WITH MORE SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF LOW MAY CREATE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN WEST WITH LIGHTER SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND SHARP
INCREASE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF SURFACE. VAD WIND PROFILE AROUND 850
MB ALREADY 50KTS AT KDMX.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
550 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN THE MIDLANDS OR THE CSRA. LOW
LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD COVER THE REGION UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 79S.
TODAY...MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EARLY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
FOLLOWING BEHIND IT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN A NW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO DRAG A SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING
IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH NORTH
TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH...AND K INDEX VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S.
MODELS INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING...
HE STRONGEST INSTABILITIES ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR THE
CSRA/SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LIMITED BY DRIER AIR AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING...BUT
WHAT DOES FORM COULD BE SEVERE BASED ON DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SOME ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR EXPECTED AS
WELL. DRIER AIR AND MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS
REGION NEAR THE CSRA IN A SEE TEXT. OTHERWISE...LESS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO WENT LOWER 90S FOR
TUESDAY. DECIDED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO 3-4 HOURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS 22-23 PERCENT SOUTHERN PART INCLUDING
CSRA. 16-18 PERCENT POPS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRYING OCCURRING. AGAIN... WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
GIVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY...EXPECT THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS JUNE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER SHOULD TAKE HOLD FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING A BIT TO AROUND 90
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT MODIFY TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPSTATE SC...DRIFTING SE. LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS OUR NORTHERN
FA...SO STILL THINKING THE ACTIVITY MAY NOT REACH OUR TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MVFR
TO IFR CIGS. AFTER MORNING RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPCTED TODAY. DRIER AIR AND
SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANYTHING
THAT DOES FORM COULD BE SEVERE DUE TO EXPECTED STRONG
INSTABILITIES. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
151 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SHORT WAVE IN UPSTATE MOVING EAST CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. EARLIER THOUGHT THIS AREA WOULD NOT
IMPACT CAE CWA BUT NOW DECIDED TO HAVE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART
NEAR THE GSP CWA. THEN...HAVING ACTIVITY DROPPING OFF WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE LEVEL AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO DRAG A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO WENT LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY. DECIDED
TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO 3-4 HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST POPS 22-23 PERCENT SOUTHERN PART INCLUDING CSRA. 16-18
PERCENT POPS NORTH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING OCCURRING. AGAIN... WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STRONGER ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST...DRY WEATHER
SHOULD TAKE HOLD FOR THE WEEKEND. VERY WARM AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ALSO...A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT MODIFYING
INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. BULK OF ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALSO SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE FA. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS CURRENTLY...WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
UPSTATE SC/NE GA. THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL AND
SURFACE OBS INDICATE STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO IFR CIGS. LATEST HRRR HIGH RES MODEL INDICATING STRATUS WITH
IFR CIGS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE...BUT WITH STRATUS IN PLACE AND WITH WIND
STAYING UP SOME...SHOULD KEEP VSBYS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE NEAR TERM AT OGB...WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MAY PROMOTE SOME FOG BEFORE STRATUS CAN MOVE IN THERE.
AFTER MORNING RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY. DRIER AIR AND SOME MID
LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANYTHING THAT DOES
FORM COULD BE SEVERE DUE TO EXPECTED STRONG INSTABILITIES.
HOWEVER...CHANCES OF TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MODELS ARE PLAYING CATCH UP THIS
EVENING. WSR-88D SHOWING A BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH WITH 15 TO 25 MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THIS BOUNDARY IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
ACCORDING TO THE OUTPUT. DEWPOINTS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS WELL.
AM CONCERNED THAT CONSIDERING OUR WARM DAY THAT WE COULD HAVE AN
ABNORMALLY WARM NIGHT CONSIDERING THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO BLENDED REALITY
AND THE RUC WHICH SEEMED TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE WIND FIELD
AND INCREASED THE WIND EARLIER. ALSO WARMED UP MINS AND MAY NOT
HAVE WARMED THEM UP ENOUGH. KEPT THE POPS INTACT SINCE THAT LOOKS
REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
FORM EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
IS PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-70. FURTHER EAST A DRY LINE WAS
LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY GOODLAND SOUTHEAST TO OAKLEY. AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. AM ANTICIPATING A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. MEANWHILE THE DRY LINE MAY SERVE AS A SECOND SOURCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGER CINH IS EAST OF THE DRY LINE WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO FORM
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1000-2000J/KG OF MIXED 1KM CAPE. IF STORMS
DO FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE THEY WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG SINCE MEAN
STORM MOTION WILL PUSH THE STORMS EAST OF THE DRY LINE INTO HIGHER
CINH.
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES PAST THE KS/CO BORDER IT
FILLS WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO GO.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DECLINES.
TUESDAY THE HOT TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AS THE WARM FRONT FROM
MONDAY PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...PLACING THE TRI-STATE AREA
FURTHER INTO THE HOT AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL REACH/EXCEED RECORD
VALUES. FOR A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS SEE CLIMATE SECTION. BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT THE DRY LINE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE DRY LINE STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO THE GROUND. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY WINDS MAY
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR MORE INFORMATION. OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...PERIOD WILL START WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BREAKING DOWN PREVAILING RIDGE AXIS ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
AMPLIFYING RIDGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT BEFORE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE STABLE PROFILE EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM
POTENTIAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
ALTHOUGH DEPARTING SFC HIGH REPRESENTS A COOLER AIR MASS...TDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT VALUES RESULTING IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY. CINH REMAINS STRONG HOWEVER SO CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS NOT REALLY HIGH...ALTHOUGH THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED
AS OVERALL AS FAIRLY LONG HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED AND GIVEN INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A PERIOD OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHWEST PORTION OF
LARGE H5 RIDGE AS IT BUILDS BACK OVER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY
WEEKEND BRINGING CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. TEMPS MAY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY...BUT AS PERIOD GOES ON POTENTIAL FOR
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING MCS RESULTING IN COOLER OUTFLOW LIMITS
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN HEAT THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT PRECIP THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ECMWF POINTING MORE TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND GFS THE
EVENING HOURS. WITH CWA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MODELS
SUGGESTING DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE 50-65 RANGE...THINK THUNDER
CHANCES ARE REASONABLE ALTHOUGH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES THINK
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE WILL SUFFICE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...UNCERTAIN AND
COMPLICATED WIND FORECAST. VARIABLE WINDS AT KMCK DUE TO OUTFLOW
FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE SITE. ALSO A WARM FRONT IS
MOVING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW FAR NORTH IT MOVES AND
WHEN IT COMES BACK AS A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. PLUS A SURFACE TROUGH
WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AT KGLD. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SINCE THIS CHANCE IS SPOTTY IN
NATURE...UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP AND
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...CHOSE TO LEAVE ANY MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
CONTACTED THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY CO AND WICHITA
COUNTY...THE DRIEST PLACES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA...ASKING ABOUT THE
CONDITIONS OF THE GRASSES. BOTH SAID THE GRASSES ARE DRYING OUT
AND WILL BURN BUT ARE TOO GREEN FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH...BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AS
SUCH WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE AND LET
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL SINCE WINDS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH WHILE THE FUELS ARE NOT AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY:
LOCATION YEAR RECORD
GOODLAND 2001 100
MCCOOK 1918 106
BURLINGTON 1918 102
HILL CITY 1953 106
COLBY 1918 104
TRIBUNE 2010 102
YUMA 1956 100
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JTL
CLIMATE...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RIDE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...IMPACTING THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND MAY HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.
UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT A BIT...AND WILL SWING
THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
UNTIL THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY WITHIN THE PATH OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. AT 07Z...RADAR
SHOWED SOME SHOWERS HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CWA DUE TO PVA AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX. THIS WILL WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. MORE SHOWERS WERE COMING OFF LAKE ERIE AND MAY ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. 04Z RUN OF THE HRRR LOOKED
DECENT...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH TODAYS POP/WX FORECAST.
NVA/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVE IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN W/NW FLOW ALOFT.
FOR TEMPERATURES...FAVORED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET WHICH
FORECASTS MAXIMA/MINIMA NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
WAVES...HOWEVER DURING THIS TIME THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO EXPERIENCING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER.
IT LOOKS AS IF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH.
WITH W/NW FLOW IN PLACE...ANY UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
COULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS COULD HAPPEN
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATEST MODELS TREND LOW PRESSURE FURTHER NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA. LOCATION
OF LOW PRESSURE/WARM FRONT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT IF THIS
OCCURS...CWA WOULD BE IN A WARM SECTOR FOR THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. SO EVEN IF THE STORM TRACK FOR MCS ACTIVITY WERE
TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...CWA WOULD STILL BE IN A POSITION
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER /DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES GIVEN THE FORECAST
SHEAR/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS /IFR/ WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 09Z ACROSS THE
HUBS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING PROMOTING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. UPPER TROUGH LAGS...SO STILL COULD HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD FOCUS SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT MAY THEN BRING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC/LOWER MD BAY AREA WITH NEAR 20 KT CONTINUING. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY...PROMOTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ533-534-537-543.
&&
$$
BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAST WNW FLOW ALF
WITH H3 WINDS UP TO 100KT ALONG THE CNDN BORDER BTWN CLOSED LO OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA AND UPR RDG OVER THE PLAINS. UPR MI IS DOMINATED BY
SHRTWV RDG TO THE NW OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE LOWER LKS/MID
ATLANTIC STATES...WITH WEAK HI PRES RDG BRINGING DRY WX TO UPR MI
EARLY THIS MRNG EVEN THOUGH SCT-BKN CLDS ARE IMPACTING THE AREA.
SHRTWV ON THE CYC SIDE OF 100KT H3 JET CORE IN FAST WLY FLOW ALF IS
MOVING THRU SW ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF THE CNDN BORDER AND CAUSING
SOME SHRA/A FEW TS FM THE MN ARROWHEAD TOWARD ISLE ROYALE/NW LK SUP
UNDER THE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND WELL E OF H85 COLD
FNT/DRY LINE MOVING THRU NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING JUST N OF THE MN BORDER.
TDAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SHRA/ISOLD TS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD IS
PROGGED TO DRIVE E ACRS NRN LK SUP AND INTO ONTARIO E OF THE LK THIS
AFTN. SINCE BULK OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SHIFT W-E JUST N OF UPR
MI...WHICH WILL BE ON THE ACYC SIDE OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...
SUSPECT THE BULK OF THE SHRA NOW OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WL REMAIN
JUST N OF THE LAND CWA...WITH THE SOMEWHAT HIER POPS FM ISLE ROYALE
TO THE KEWEENAW THIS MRNG BEFORE DRYING/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ARRIVE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL/RECENT
RAPID REFRESH MODEL APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON POPS FOR THIS
MRNG...SO USED THAT GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO
WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL CNVCTN MIGHT DVLP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF
THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COOL/DRY FNT. BULK
OF MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING QVECTOR CVNGC ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING
SHRTWV IMPACTING THIS AREA INTO EARLY AFTN...WHEN CNVGC BTWN LK
BREEZES OFF SUP/MI MIGHT PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR THE CNVCTN. MODIFIED
NAM FCST SDNG FOR ERY AT 18Z FOR SFC T/TD OF 73/57 YIELDS SBCAPE
NEAR 525 J/KG...SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS OVER E AND SCENTRAL
CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN. AFT 18Z...THE WINDOW FOR TS DVLPMENT
SHOULD CLOSE WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING STEADY DRYING ALF WITH
SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H6 ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS. OVER THE W...SKIES SHOULD TURN MOSUNNY WITH
ARRIVAL OF DRYING IN THE LO/MID TROP. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE
12-13C RANGE AND MIXING TO H75 ON NAM FCST SNDGS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO REACH AS HI AS THE LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W/SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK
MODERATION IN THE LLVL NW FLOW.
TNGT...WITH DRY AIR OVHD/LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT A TRANQUIL
NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMP DROP AS WINDS ARE FCST TO BE LGT
UNDER WEAK HI PRES RDG PASSING ACRS UPR MI. SOME HI CLDS MAY PUSH
INTO MAINLY THE WI BORDER COUNTIES LATE ON NRN FRINGES OF SHRTWV
MOVING INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY LATE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAINS INFLUENCED BY
TROUGHING MOST OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS RIDGE OVER CNTRL CANADA AND CNTRL CONUS
TRIES TO MAKE IT TO THE UPPER LAKES. RIDGE LOSES STEAM THOUGH AS
BY SUNDAY YET ANOTHER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WHICH
KNOCKS DOWN HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PATTERN DOES NOT
HOLD MUCH IN WAY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CWA...BUT WILL TREND AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H85 THERMAL TROUGHING AFFECTS
THE REGION. MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING OCCURS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE NORTHERLY WINDS.
UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE PRESSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH H85 WARM FRONT AND
ALL THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE OVER NEB AND IOWA...NOT CAUSING ANY
CONCERN HERE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER H7 DWPNT/RH FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CNTRL
MN AND CNTRL WI. MAYBE AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS OR SPRINKLES WITH
THE H7 MOISTURE BUT AGAIN IMPACT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THIS FAR NORTH.
EVEN FARTHER NORTH...MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE SLIDING WNW TO ESE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH WAVE AXIS NOT
COMING ACROSS UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE GEM-NH WHICH
SHOWED WAVE AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NOW
KEEPS IT ALONG AND NORTH OF NORTH SHORE OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. SO WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AFTN
COOLING PROVIDED BY LAKE BREEZES. H85 TEMPS OVER 10C INDICATE MAX
TEMPS 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AWAY FM LAKE MODIFICATION.
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SLOWER...BUT ALSO STRONGER YET. ASSOCIATED
H85 LOW STRONGER OVER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WHILE H85 RIDGE STAYS
PUT OVER MANITOBA. NORTH FLOW BTWN THE FEATURES NOW ALLOWS H85 TEMPS
TO FALL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH GFS TURNING UP CHILLY +3C AT 18Z. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH NOT AS COLD...BUT STILL HAVE TRENDED COOLER OVER LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING OVR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN SHOWING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH COLD AIR COMING IN AT LOW-LEVELS FIRST.
AT FACE VALUE...SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE/STRATIFORM LGT RAIN
FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER AND
CLOUDIER FORECAST. ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER SMALL UPSLOPE AREA OF
NCNTRL. BY MID-LATE AFTN...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING TAKE OVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY ON THURSDAY
EVENING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS /PWAT LESS THAN 50 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IF WINDS END UP LIGHTER...WILL NEED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY MENTION SOME FROST. HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALL AREAS.
MOST WARMING WILL OCCUR INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHERE TEMPS WILL
PUSH ABOVE 70 DEGREES.
BY THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO MOVES EAST...RESULTING IN
LIGHT S/SE WINDS AT THE SFC. H85 WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY THOUGH WHICH KEEPS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT WELL TO THE
SOUTH OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRIMARY SHRA/TSRA
TO BE ROAMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT SO CHANCES OF APPRECIABLE RAIN
LOOK MINIMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON
ADVECTING LEFTOVER H85-H7 MOISTURE ACROSS UPPER LAKES THOUGH SO AT
THE LEAST COULD SEE INCREASED MID CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHRA
DURING THIS TIME THOUGH. PREVIOUS RUNS OF ECMWF WERE LESS GENEROUS
WITH THE MOISTURE. SINCE ECMWF USUALLY LEADS THE WAY IN VERIFICATION
AT LONGER RANGES...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR FAR WEST CLOSER TO SFC TROUGH AND GREATER H85
MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS IDEA WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF QPF ON SATURDAY AFTN. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN ON SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SFC-H85
LOW DROPPING ACROSS AREA ON WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH JET ENERGY ALSO
INCREASING. SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING MAY BRING CHANCE OF
ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA. DO NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN GOING FOR
HIGHER POPS AND WILL JUST RUN WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS. SFC FRONT
WORKS THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
MID-LVL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND UPSTREAM HAS ME RECONSIDERING
FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE
DECIDED TO INCLUDED MVFR VSBY FOR FOG FOR KIWD/KCMX/KSAW BUT WILL
KEEP CIGS GENERALLY VFR. DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W
MAY BRING VCNTY SHRA TO KCMX LATE TONIGHT AND TO KIWD/KSAW TUE
MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE ANY
RADIATION FOG THAT DOES FORM TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNRISE AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 15KT OR LESS
THRU WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WAVES WILL
BECOME CHOPPY UP TO 4 FEET. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN
RESULTS IN LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE RAIN OCCURRING ON THE LAKE IS RESULTING IN FOG OVER WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT THE FOG BY FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES EDGING OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. TO THE N...A WELL DEFINED
MID-LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG WRLY FLOW WAS NOTED BTWN
THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH A 110KT UPPER
JET ANALYZED BY THE RUC. THIS JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT SHIFTS THRU THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED THRU NRN ONTARIO
TODAY. TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA DEVELOPING OVER
WRN UPPER MI TODAY. SO FAR...NO THUNDER EVEN THOUGH LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE/MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 1000/500J/KG OVER THE
INTERIOR WRN UPPER MI.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA AND MAYBE YET ISOLD TSRA OVER WRN UPPER MI
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AFTER SHRA
DISSIPATE...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A TIME
TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP UNDER MID LEVEL DRYING AND
LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY WHERE SOME RAIN HAS FALLEN
THIS AFTN. LATER TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA. GIVEN
THAT SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY WITH FEATURE...IT APPEARS
CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT.
INTERESTING FCST FOR TUE WITH REGARD TO TSTM POTENTIAL. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON TIMING OF JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
FROM A LARGER SCALE STANDPOINT...THE WNW FLOW PATTERN IS ONE WHICH
OFTEN SUPPORTS SVR STORMS OVER UPPER MI. WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR TUE IS ON THE ORDER OF
60-70KT. FORTUNATELY...WITH MLCAPE UP AROUND 500J/KG FROM THE NAM
AND ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FROM THE GFS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND FORCING WILL
BE PASSING THRU EARLIER IN THE DAY AND MOSTLY LIKELY NOT IN CONCERT
WITH PEAK HEATING. THE NAM REPRESENTS THE SLOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM
ON THE PROGRESSION TUE WHILE THE GFS IS ON THE FASTER SIDE. THE GEM
OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH TIMING AND WILL BE FAVORED. PLAN WILL
BE TO CARRY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WNW TO ESE TUE.
BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL/SE WHERE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE MI WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FORCING. PRONOUNCED
MIDLEVEL DRYING SURGING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING AN END TO
SHRA/TSRA FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE W. IF FOR SOME REASON PROGRESSION IS
SLOWER TUE AND INSTABILITY BUILDS HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...
THERE MAY BE A FEW SVR STORMS TO DEAL WITH OVER THE SCNTRL/SE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR E AND SE CORNERS OF THE
CWA.
THE CURRENT LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL OPEN UP AND SWING AROUND
THE SET RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S...AND
MOVE TO SD/NE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LINE UP WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE SWINGING AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER NE CANADA ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN
WITH ALL OF THAT...UPPER MI MAY END UP DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DID ADD A JUST A FEW SHOWERS FOR FAR E UPPER MI /FIRE
ZONES/ THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB
TEMPS OFF THE ECMWF STAY AROUND 8C FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL BACK INTO THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EVEN IN THE UPPER 50S F RIGHT ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
WITH THE 500MB TROUGHS SHIFTING TO OUR E AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM TX THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...EXPECT NW FLOW TO RETURN
ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS UP IN THE AIR...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST...LINGERING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO
NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE...WITH MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
ONGOING FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EARLIER 10/00Z
RUN OF THE ECMWF AND 10/12Z RUN OF THE GFS BOTH PAINTED A GOOD
AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA...WHICH WHEN BLENDED RESULTED IN HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THEN OF COURSE THE 01/12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN MAINLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
MID-LVL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND UPSTREAM HAS ME RECONSIDERING
FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE
DECIDED TO INCLUDED MVFR VSBY FOR FOG FOR KIWD/KCMX/KSAW BUT WILL
KEEP CIGS GENERALLY VFR. DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W
MAY BRING VCNTY SHRA TO KCMX LATE TONIGHT AND TO KIWD/KSAW TUE
MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE ANY
RADIATION FOG THAT DOES FORM TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNRISE AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 15KT OR LESS THRU
THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20KT MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT/THU IN ADVANCE OF HIGH
PRES BUILDING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED
TODAY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME FOG
PATCHES OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. IF SO...FOG PATCHES WILL
SHIFT TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. THE PATCHY
FOG MAY THEN LINGER THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2013
UPDATE TO AVIATION
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Southwest flow aloft continues to bring moisture
and instability across southwest Montana. With the airmass
destabilizing during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms have,
and continue, to develop over the southwest mountains and then track
north and east. The models, with HRRR corroboration, indicate the
area of precipitation after midnight should reach along a Helena to
Great Falls to Lewistown line. However, the 00z Nam is backing off a
bit on the areal coverage of the precipitation. Temperatures look
reasonable and should be warmer than last night due to more clouds.
Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 0500Z.
VFR conditions will mostly continue across the area through at least
Tuesday evening, unless otherwise noted below. A moist southwest
flow aloft will keep areas of mid and high level clouds across the
area through 12Z with isolated showers/thunderstorms south of a KHLN
to KLWT line. A disturbance in this flow aloft will move across the
area between 11/12Z and 12/00Z to bring more widespread showers to
the area, mainly between 11/18Z and 12/00Z, with some areas
receiving MVFR ceilings. The airmass will also become unstable after
18Z along and south of a KGTF to KLWT line, causing scattered
thunderstorms to develop as well. Hail and gusty winds will be the
main threats. Showers/storms will decrease after 00Z as the
disturbance begins exiting the area. Coulston
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 303 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2013
Tonight through Thursday...Upper level low poised off the coast
of BC along with a weaker low over CA will dominate the weather
pattern tonight and Tuesday. The current zonal flow over MT will
give way to SW flow as a upper level ridge builds over the area
and remains in place through the period. Will continue to see a
chance of thunderstorms over the SW tonight. This is due to the
northern shield of monsoonal-type moisture brought northward by
the CA low. By tonight the low over CA gets caught up in the upper
level SW flow and moves over the ID/MT/WY area and pumps more
moisture over the area. Thus increased pops over much of the area
from Beaverhead to Fergus Counties. By Tuesday late morning this
area expands northward over much of the area...and have increased
pops for much of SW and central MT. Expect a continued threat of
thunderstorms through the period. By Thursday the threat of severe
thunderstorms is greatest over eastern portions of the area as MU
cape is over 3500 J/Kg over Fergus and BLAINE Counties. Potential
heavy rain...large hail...and damaging winds are possible Thursday
late morning into the early afternoon. Temperatures should be near
normal through Wednesday and slightly cooler on Thursday. Mercer
Thursday night through Tuesday...Models in good agreement with
unstable southwest flow over the region into Friday. With unstable
air and enhanced dynamics, showers and scattered thunderstorms are
possible through the long term. Precipitation details vary but most
of Central Montana has a fair chance of seeing some rain. Periods of
heavier precipitation look possible later in the day on Wednesday
and Thursday. Thursday a major trough will move in over the
Continental Divide with minor secondary troughs moving into Montana
from the southwest. A cold front associated with the system will
move through Montana Thursday further enhancing any convective
activity that day. Models remain in good agreement with lifting the
trough to the northeast into Southern Canada early Saturday. Weak
high pressure looks build back in from the southeast for Sunday and
Monday. A slightly cooler air mass will be over the region keeping
temperatures around low seasonal average through the week before
warming by next weekend. Winds also look to remain mostly light with
Friday possibly being a windy day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The areal flood warning for Hill, Blaine, and Fergus Counties has
been canceled as has the point forecast for the Milk River near
Harlem. A flood warning continues for the Big Sandy Creek near
Havre and Clear Creek near Chinook. The latest river forecasts
continue to show a slow decrease during the first half of this
week. However, thunderstorms, some possibly with locally heavy
rainfall, are in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday and may
affect already swollen rivers and streams.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 70 48 71 / 30 70 60 50
CTB 44 67 45 70 / 10 50 50 40
HLN 50 75 48 74 / 40 70 60 50
BZN 46 76 44 75 / 50 80 60 50
WEY 41 72 37 70 / 50 70 50 40
DLN 49 76 46 73 / 60 70 50 40
HVR 48 69 49 75 / 10 70 60 60
LWT 48 68 46 72 / 50 70 60 60
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning until further notice for Big Sandy Creek near Havre,
Clear Creek near Chinook.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AT 07Z WITH AN AREA
OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BIG QUESTION TODAY
WILL BE HOW HOT WILL IT GET IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHILE MOS TOPS OUT IN THE UPPER 90S.
00Z MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON CURRENT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LAST EVENING BUT HRRR HAS TRENDED TOWARD
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE COMPLEX THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN PLACING THE WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON
THEN STALLING THERE WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A BIT
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SLIDING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO COVER THAT POSSIBLE EVENT.
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS PROBLEMATIC WITH MODELS SHOWING NUMEROUS
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AND TRIGGERING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES PROVIDE LIMITED CONFIDENCE TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO GOING TAFS. STILL EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO SETTLE IN THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINATES BTWN 09Z-
13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. DID INCLUDE LLWS MENTION AT
KLNK THRU ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LLVL JET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
322 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND
LOWER ACROSS NEW YORK TOWARD THE LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 PM UPDATE... BAND OF RA/+RA IS MOVG NEWD ACRS NE PA ATTM...AND
IT SHOULD ALSO TRAVERSE OUR NY CNTYS E OF I-81...THROUGH ABT
05-07Z. DYNAMIC FORCING IS BEING PROVIDED BY UPR-LVL WV LIFTING
THROUGH WRN NY/PA...AND ALSO SOME UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE/JET SUPPORT.
MOISTURE SUPPLY IS DEFINITELY THERE...WITH BLENDED TPW IMAGERY
DEPICTING VALUES NEAR 2" FROM THE MID-ATL STATES NWD INTO SERN
PTNS OF THE FA. FORTUNATELY...THE AREA OF PCPN ITSELF IS
PROGRESSIVE...SO LCLZD MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2"
RANGE...FOR THE MOST PART. WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER ENHANCEMENT
AND/OR TRAINING OCCUR.
DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS (07-10Z)...STEADIER PCPN SHOULD TAPER BACK
TO SCTD -SHRA IN OUR ERN ZNS...AS THE BEST FORCED LIFT SHIFTS TO
OUR N AND E BY THIS TIME.
JUST MINOR TEMP/DEW PT TWEAKS WERE MADE THROUGH THE LATE EVE HRS.
PREV DISC... 630 PM EDT UPDATE... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. INCREASED POPS IN THE WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL PA. CURRENT
ANALYSIS IS INDICATING THAT MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS IS TAKING PLACE
OVER CENTRAL NY...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE CATSKILLS AND NE PA THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE REGION OF THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES. OTHER
THEN THAN...PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS GOOD.
EARLIER DISC... 230 PM UPDATE...
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN IN THE QUARTER TO LESS THAN HALF
INCH RAIN. MAYBE A FEW BREAKS HERE IN THE SHOWERS AND THEN HI RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD BATCH OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH IN THE 00Z TO 03Z
TIME FRAME. HRRR IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW. ARW HAS BEEN
DOING WELL WITH ITS FCSTS. THIS EVENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ANY THUNDER. PRIMARY FOCUS AREA REMAINS OVER NE
PA AND THE CATSKILLS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BUT OVER 2 INCHES IS NEEDED IN 3 HOURS WHICH WOULD NEED
A CLUSTER OF GOOD CONVECTION TO TRIGGER THIS AND THAT DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY. TOWARD MORNING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL
OR EVEN DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NY TUESDAY HELPING TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HAVE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND A FAVORABLE
JET REGION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE AT DRY WEATHER. WARM FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY
WITH A JET ENTRANCE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER N
EACH RUN WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. MAIN FOCUS AND TRACK OF THE
CENTER REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SETTING
UP A BAND OF GOOD RAIN ACROSS PA NRN TIER AND SOME IN THE NY SRN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
ONLY CHG MADE TO EXTNDD FCST TONIGHT WAS TO MASSAGE GRIDS MORE TWD
WPC GUIDANCE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BTWN 00Z GFS AND 00Z
EURO AS WE HEAD TWD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH GFS
INDICATING H5 SYSTEM AND ASSOC STRONG SFC LOW AFFECTING THE AREA,
WHILE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER. HWVR, GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF SFC
BNDRYS AND SFC LOWS, CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AT ANY TIME LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL APPEARS AS THO SATURDAY WL
BE NICE UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND HIPRES.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
230 PM UPDATE...MED RNG FCST FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD. CHCS FOR -SHRA ASSCD WITH LOW PRES DEPARTING THE MID
ATLC RGN ON THU NGT (MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA)...THEN THE PSBLTY OF
SCT- SHRA ON FRI WITH PASSING S/WV`S IN NW FLOW. AFTER THAT...SFC
HI PRES IS XPCT TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH
MAXES GNRLY IN THE L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
LOWER ELEVATION SITES PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AND HIGHER TERMINALS AT
IFR. KITH AND KBGM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THROUGH 14Z
THIS MORNING WHILE KELM AND KRME WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE.
KRME AND KELM WILL LIKELY DIP INTO IFR CATEGORIES THROUGH 12Z-15Z
WITH KSYR AND KAVP REMAINING IN LOW-END MVFR CATEGORY. FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING WITH MIXING BRINGING CIGS
UP TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY VFR AT KAVP. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE,
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TERMINALS
AGAIN TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE ESE EARLY THEN VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES
AROUND 18Z SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE T0 AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS EXPECTED FROM 20-25KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED/WED NGT...MAINLY VFR.
THUR-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
143 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND
LOWER ACROSS NEW YORK TOWARD THE LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE... BAND OF RA/+RA IS MOVG NEWD ACRS NE PA ATTM...AND
IT SHOULD ALSO TRAVERSE OUR NY CNTYS E OF I-81...THROUGH ABT
05-07Z. DYNAMIC FORCING IS BEING PROVIDED BY UPR-LVL WV LIFTING
THROUGH WRN NY/PA...AND ALSO SOME UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE/JET SUPPORT.
MOISTURE SUPPLY IS DEFINITELY THERE...WITH BLENDED TPW IMAGERY
DEPICTING VALUES NEAR 2" FROM THE MID-ATL STATES NWD INTO SERN
PTNS OF THE FA. FORTUNATELY...THE AREA OF PCPN ITSELF IS
PROGRESSIVE...SO LCLZD MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2"
RANGE...FOR THE MOST PART. WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER ENHANCEMENT
AND/OR TRAINING OCCUR.
DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS (07-10Z)...STEADIER PCPN SHOULD TAPER BACK
TO SCTD -SHRA IN OUR ERN ZNS...AS THE BEST FORCED LIFT SHIFTS TO
OUR N AND E BY THIS TIME.
JUST MINOR TEMP/DEW PT TWEAKS WERE MADE THROUGH THE LATE EVE HRS.
PREV DISC... 630 PM EDT UPDATE... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. INCREASED POPS IN THE WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL PA. CURRENT
ANALYSIS IS INDICATING THAT MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS IS TAKING PLACE
OVER CENTRAL NY...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE CATSKILLS AND NE PA THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE REGION OF THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES. OTHER
THEN THAN...PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS GOOD.
EARLIER DISC... 230 PM UPDATE...
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN IN THE QUARTER TO LESS THAN HALF
INCH RAIN. MAYBE A FEW BREAKS HERE IN THE SHOWERS AND THEN HI RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD BATCH OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH IN THE 00Z TO 03Z
TIME FRAME. HRRR IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW. ARW HAS BEEN
DOING WELL WITH ITS FCSTS. THIS EVENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ANY THUNDER. PRIMARY FOCUS AREA REMAINS OVER NE
PA AND THE CATSKILLS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BUT OVER 2 INCHES IS NEEDED IN 3 HOURS WHICH WOULD NEED
A CLUSTER OF GOOD CONVECTION TO TRIGGER THIS AND THAT DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY. TOWARD MORNING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR OCCASIONAL
OR EVEN DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NY TUESDAY HELPING TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HAVE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND A FAVORABLE
JET REGION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE AT DRY WEATHER. WARM FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY
WITH A JET ENTRANCE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER N
EACH RUN WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. MAIN FOCUS AND TRACK OF THE
CENTER REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SETTING
UP A BAND OF GOOD RAIN ACROSS PA NRN TIER AND SOME IN THE NY SRN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...MED RNG FCST FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD. CHCS FOR -SHRA ASSCD WITH LOW PRES DEPARTING THE MID
ATLC RGN ON THU NGT (MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA)...THEN THE PSBLTY OF
SCT- SHRA ON FRI WITH PASSING S/WV`S IN NW FLOW. AFTER THAT...SFC
HI PRES IS XPCT TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH
MAXES GNRLY IN THE L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
LOWER ELEVATION SITES PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AND HIGHER TERMINALS AT
IFR. KITH AND KBGM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THROUGH 14Z
THIS MORNING WHILE KELM AND KRME WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE.
KRME AND KELM WILL LIKELY DIP INTO IFR CATEGORIES THROUGH 12Z-15Z
WITH KSYR AND KAVP REMAINING IN LOW-END MVFR CATEGORY. FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING WITH MIXING BRINGING CIGS
UP TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY VFR AT KAVP. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE,
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TERMINALS
AGAIN TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE ESE EARLY THEN VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES
AROUND 18Z SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE T0 AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS EXPECTED FROM 20-25KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED/WED NGT...MAINLY VFR.
THUR-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
138 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN AT THE COAST SHOULD
TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
WEAK ASCENT CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF PVA AND LOW
LEVEL JETTING NOW ENCOUNTERING STABILIZED AIR. AS A RESULT
CONVECTION ALL BUT GONE AND NOW PRECIP HAS A MORE STRATIFORM
CHARACTER. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AT THIS POINT IS HOW LONG PRECIP
LINGERS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY ADDITIONAL MANAGES TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM. LATEST RUNS OF LOCAL HRRR AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT THIS CURRENT BATCH WILL BE THE LAST AND POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED DOWNWARD AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 06Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE COLUMN WILL BE DRIER DURING TUESDAY...AND
MORE-SO WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPERIENCED TODAY
BECOMES WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY. STILL ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT NOT AS MUCH AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY. VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE HEAT INDEX APPROACHING
100F MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY 100-103F FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SC.
MINS WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT WITH THE WARMEST MINS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
AS MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A WELL-DEFINED
SANDHILLS TROUGH AS WELL AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WILL KEEP POPS IN A
GENERAL 40-50 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA COINCIDENT WITH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. PRECIP
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH RAPID MID-LEVEL DRYING. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE A SOLID 7-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY JUNE. A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ACT TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING BEHIND THE
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS FORMING A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL AFFECT THE FLO/LBT AIRPORTS
PERIODICALLY THROUGH 12Z. LATEST TAF IS AN ATTEMPT TO TIME THIS
STRATUS USING SATELLITE DATA AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...AS MOS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS VERY WELL AT ALL. CLOSER TO THE
COAST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. STRATOCUMULUS COULD
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT CLOUD BASES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET.
AFTER DAYBREAK...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEABREEZE...WITH SOME SFC
GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT TOO FAR FROM
PRIOR FORECASTS...SEAS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF FEET SHORT. I WILL
GIVE THESE SEA HEIGHTS ANOTHER TWO HOURS TO RESPOND BEFORE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE NC WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
HAVING SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THE FORECAST WINDS AND EVEN MORESO THE
RESULTING SEAS. WEAK LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATER THROUGH THE PERIOD
TO BE HARD PRESSED TO MIX DOWN MUCH OF THE 30KT 92MB JET DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT...WHICH ALSO APPEARS TO FORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. MORE TROUBLING IS THAT WNA GUIDANCE AND
SWAN BOTH AS OF 03Z TRYING TO SHOW NEARLY 6 FT SEAS AT 41013 WHERE
REALITY IS 3.5FT. HAVE TRENDED SEAS DOWN IN THE VERY NEAR TERM BUT
DID NOT WANT TO CANCEL ADVISORY JUST YET.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX AND THE WIND WILL VEER AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE A NOTCH AGAIN
DURING WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL FETCH SUPPORTS MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER CAPE FEAR
WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK OFF THE COAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY
EVENING...AND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX
BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AND CROSS ON
FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT ROUND CROSSING THE
CWA. AS THE SECOND ROUND MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY RAIN COOLED
ENVIRONMENT...INSTABILITY IS WANING AND ONLY CHANCE THUNDER WILL
OCCUR. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE A BIT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OFFSHORE BY EARLY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL
AND OF CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING SOUTH OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY
TO ALONG COASTAL SC. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON BOTH LINES OF
CONVECTION WHICH PULLS THE FIRST LINE OFF THE OBX AROUND MIDNIGHT
WHILE THE SECOND LINE ADVECTS INTO SWRN COUNTIES AROUND THE SAME
TIME...OFF THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING SO THE THREAT OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS
DIMINISHING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...THOUGH
RAIN COOLED AIR HAS ALREADY COOLED INLAND LOCATIONS TO NEAR MIN
TEMPS AND EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON
TUE...BUT UNTIL THEN...CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL CONT CLRG FROM W
TO EAST. IT WILL RMN QUITE BREEZY ON TUE WITH SW WINDS IN THE
15-25 MPH RANGE ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH UPR 80S INLAND AND LWR 80S COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BECOME DRY AND HOT BEHIND
UPPER TROUGH/WEAK COOL FRONT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AS NC
BRIEFLY COMES UNDER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION DUE TO
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 90S AND SUPPRESS DIURNAL CONVECTION.
FOR WED NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL NOSE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW MIGRATE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ANY SEVERE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM MAY RIDE ESE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. THINKING
THAT BULK OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER...THOUGH A FEW MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FA/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS HERE FOR
LATE WED NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INC FURTHER ON THUR AS WSW FLOW STRENGTHENS
AND BRINGS IN HOTTER TEMPS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO SOME CASES UPPER 90S...AND
WITH TD VALS INTO THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...105 DEGREES OR HIGHER THUR AFTERNOON.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COMPACT BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THUR EVENING. MODELS INDICATE
DEEPENING SFC LOW TRANSLATING EASTWARD BETWEEN THE TIDEWATER OF VA
AND THE CAPE MAY AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE DYNAMICS FOR
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY
THUR AND ESP THUR EVENING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AVAILABLE COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT.
SHARP COOL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY FRI MORNING BRINGING
PLEASANTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH HAVE IMPACTED SOME TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. A BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
AND DIMINISHED. THEREFORE...THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WITH BE
STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.
LOOKS AS IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE EVEN BEHIND
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. HENCE...HAVE KEPT MOST TAF SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS AND EVEN THINK POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS COULD FORM EARLY
IN THE MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR TAF SITES (KISO ESPECIALLY).
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
STRATUS/FOG FORMATION LIMITED. FEEL MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
TOMORROW WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE DAY. ANTICIPATE A BKN DECK AROUND 5KFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY TOMORROW EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP AND
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL ERODE WITH LACK OF HEATING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS)
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN LATE DAY THUR AND
INTO THU NIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH 10-15KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH 15-25KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS. SEAS ARE SLOW BUILDING WITH CURRENT OBS INDICATING 3-5FT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENTS CONTINUE THROUGH TUE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT. EXPECT SWLY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED NORTHERN
WATERS TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR ALL WATERS...THOUGH
MAINLY FOR GUSTS IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STRONG SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND
VEER WESTERLY LATE TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO WASH OUT AND DECREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AND INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY
THUR YET AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT AND LOW
PRES AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INC TO SCA CRITERIA...SEAS
WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING 6-8 FT WITH SOME 9 FT SETS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS. POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING CLOSE TO 6 FEET NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...SK/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC/TL/LEP
LONG TERM...BTC/LEP
AVIATION...SK/TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/DAG/TL/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...MOVING
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STILL SEEING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...MAKING THE MOST OF WHAT MEAGER
AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE E OF THE MTNS. WILL HAVE TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP THROUGH DAYBREAK MOVING W TO E.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPANDING LATE THIS
EVENING UNDER A TROUGH AXIS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED FROM THE
EARLIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE UNFAVORABLE
HOUR. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE SUPPORTING A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE...AND THE MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WITH THE
PASSING WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
HAS BETTER COVERAGE SURVIVING EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...BUT IT
DID NOT INITIALIZE PARTICULARLY WELL. THE LATEST SPC SREF POST
PROCESSED TSTM GUIDANCE FROM 21Z INITIALIZED QUITE WELL AS WE
APPROACH 03Z...AND IT HAS DIMINISHING COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE
TSTMS FROM THE MTNS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED...BUT
WITH GENERALLY HIGHER END CHANCES IN THE WRN MTNS TO SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THE SE PIEDMONT. A FEW OF THE SURVIVING STORMS COULD SHOW SOME
ORGANIZATION BUT THE WIND/HAIL THREAT LOOKS QUITE MARGINAL AT THIS
HOUR.
W/NW FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO DRY
CONDITIONS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CAPE DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A DECENT MID-LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS UNDERNEATH
THE INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHICH STRENGTHENS FARTHER
TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...MODEL QPF IS RESPONSE IS MINIMAL.
NEVERTHELESS... SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM IN RESPONSE
TO RISING HEIGHTS...PROBABLY A CAT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGIES WILL DROP INTO THE CWA IN NWLY
UPPER FLOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON OUR AREA BEING
IN THE PATH OF FAVORABLE MCS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. BOTH THE
GFS/NAM HAVE LIGHT QPF RESPONSE...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE NC MTNS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY WED NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE CWA THU
NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF
RESPONSE LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE DUE TO PREVAILING W/WSW DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. HENCE...POPS REMAIN IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FAVORING IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU NIGHT. USING MODEL BLEND..TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OVER
THE WEEKEND...INCREASING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE PIEDMONT WILL
STAY DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE DIFFERENCE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
DEVELOPING IFR STRATUS DECK MOVING NWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC AT
05Z...EVIDENTLY DUE TO SOME WEAK UPSLOPE AND UVV AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE. WILL START OUT IFR AS A RESULT. THINK THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE
AND THE VEERING OF THE WIND AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE WILL SCATTER OUT
THE LOW STRATUS DECK BEFORE OPERATIONS GET BUSY AROUND 09Z TO
10Z...BUT WE COULD STILL HAVE SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THUNDER AS LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
VERY SPORADIC IN THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE WIND
SHOULD REMAIN SW. ONCE THE WAVE IS OFF TO THE EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AROUND DAYBREAK AND STAY SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT TO SOMETHING N OF W DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE DAY...BUT SOME LEE TROFFING COULD KEEP IT SW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON WITH A CROSSWIND. BY SUNSET...THE WIND SHOULD BECOME
NW.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR DEAL WITH IFR STRATUS DECK...WHICH THE LAMP
GUIDANCE SHOWS PAST DAYBREAK. NOT SURE IT WILL HANG ON THAT
LONG...SO THE PREVAILING IFR E OF THE BLUE RIDGE BECOMES A TEMPO
AFTER ABOUT 09Z AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP. THINK LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AROUND SUNRISE OR IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER.
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST SO IT WILL ONLY GET A VCSH
MENTION EARLY. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO W OR NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT WITH A DISTURBANCE BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RIDGING WILL RETURN TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT MED 66% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 66% MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 89% MED 70% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 84% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 69% MED 76% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 63% HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 04Z. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
WHILE DIMINISHING. EXPECTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING AFTER 10Z GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
BUT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
GOOD FLYING WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE MID STATE AS WE GO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
PATCHY FOG EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG PLATEAU IN THE
OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE
BEING REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE...NASHVILLE STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ON TUESDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. SINCE RECORD KEEPING
BEGAN BACK IN 1870 THE LATEST IN THE YEAR THAT NASHVILLE HAS
REACHED THE 90 DEGREE MARK WAS JULY 5TH 1893. THE EARLIEST WAS
APRIL 9TH 2011. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 90 DEGREES IN
NASHVILLE IS MAY 29TH.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION TO TERMINATE AT
CSV BY 03Z. FOLLOWING THIS...SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE CSV BY 12Z WITH
VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM...1-3SM POSSIBLE FOR CKV AND BNA. PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE FOR YOUR TUESDAY WITH JUST A FEW CLDS AT THE 4KFT LEVEL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
RADAR INDICATING THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
SPRINGFIELD TN SW THROUGH DICKSON COUNTY. LAPS DATA STILL SHOWING
ELEVATED HELICITY VALUES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THUS...WILL DELAY CANCELLING ADDITIONAL WATCH AREAS UNTIL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF CURRENT WATCH COUNTIES. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...SOME MINOR ROTATION WAS STILL INDICATED OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR STILL REFRAINS FROM ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUT WILL STILL WAIT FOR THE FROPA AND WILL THEN COMMENCE WITH
CANCELLATIONS.
OTHERWISE...INTENSE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLATEAU
CONTINUES. THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER...APPRECIABLE SHEAR STILL EXISTS
OVER THE CURRENT WATCH AREA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A
SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA RIDING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
THERE. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE WEAK RIDGING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AS SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS...WITH SATURATION NEARLY UP TO
800MB BUT PLENTY OF DRYING ABOVE THAT. THE RESULT WAS EXPANSIVE
STRATUS AND SOME FOG THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAS REALLY HELPED DISSIPATE THE STRATUS...THOUGH. AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA WITH RESPECT TO WARMTH EXHIBITS 850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C PER
12Z RAOBS...WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...850MB TEMPS ARE 22-26C OR 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. 700MB TEMPS ARE ALSO QUITE WARM...RANGING FROM 14-17C FROM
RAPID CITY AND AMARILLO WEST TO SALT LAKE CITY. TO OUR
NORTHWEST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GOING ALL DAY
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...PUSHED EAST BY THE
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTING AND SHEARING OUT INTO
WYOMING BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS ALL THE WARM AIR OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL SPILL EAST AND TRY TO HEAD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING SOME
BLOCKING TO THE WARM AIR. AS A RESULT...WHILE 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BY
00Z WEDNESDAY TO 14C NORTH TO 18C SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...READINGS OF 24-36C LOOK COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS...A MUCH WARMER DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.
IF WE CAN MIX UP TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPS...READINGS WOULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...TEMPERATURES SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE MID MAY.
WITH THE WARMER AIR COMING AT US...THERE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION. TONIGHT APPEARS DRY WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM 925MB TO 700MB ALL FOCUSED WEST OF THE AREA. IN
FACT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH THE CURRENT CLOUDS
DISSIPATING WITH DIURNAL COOLING GIVEN THEIR NOW CELLULAR NATURE.
ON TUESDAY...THAT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
PROGGED TO BYPASS US TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH ITS RELATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
SOME VERY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE 10.06Z/12Z NAM...10.06Z HIRES ARW AND 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN
ALL CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
APPEAR TO COME OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADDED 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER WITH
THE CHANCES BECAUSE OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB LIKELY ABSORBING SOME
OF THE RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL HAMPER TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TO
THEIR FULL MIXING VALUES MENTIONED EARLIER.
LASTLY...FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SKIES CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY...
LIGHT WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MOIST SOILS ARE ALL VERY
FAVORABLE FOR FOG. THIS LOOKS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN VALLEYS WHERE
EVAPOTRANSPORATION OF MOISTURE CAN POOL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND
IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
THE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
PERIOD...PRIMARILY RELATED TO ALL THE WARM AIR COMING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SYNOPTICALLY...THE MAIN FEATURE TO LOCK
ONTO IS THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...
WHICH MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AS THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THERE. USING THE 10.12Z MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS
PAST MODELS...A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS CAN PLAY OUT:
1. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND LIFTING TO THE SIOUX FALLS AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN VARIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING THIS WILL
HELP BREAK THE CAPPING PRESENT BETWEEN 650-700MB...RESULTING IN AN
MCS WHICH THEN CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD BRING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-15Z WEDNESDAY. THE MCS COULD BE A BOW
ECHO. THE 10.06Z/12Z HI RES ARW MODELS...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY GOOD
STORM SCALE MODEL FORECASTS...HINT AT THIS SCENARIO.
2. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FIRE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CAPPING.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THESE ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AS IN SCENARIO 1 WHICH
WOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN SUGGESTS
THIS SCENARIO.
3. NOTHING HAPPENS OR MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST TUESDAY NIGHT
LIKE THE 10.12Z ECMWF...AND WE HAVE 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO IOWA LATE IN THE
DAY MOVES IN.
SO FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD EVEN END
UP DRY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCES OF 60-70 GOING PER
SCENARIOS 1 AND 2...AND DID SHIFT THEM NORTH TO COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS. ALL 3 ABOVE SCENARIOS SUGGEST THE SECOND PART OF SCENARIO
3 IS TRUE...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALMOST LOOK LIKE FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF A
SURFACE LOW WHICH IS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...I.E. A MORE
WINTER/SPRING LIKE APPEARANCE. THUS...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTED THE CHANCES FARTHER NORTH TO COME
INTO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALSO ENDED UP COOLING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
COOLED FURTHER.
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST GETS EASIER. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
BUILD UP THROUGH THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
KICK THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AT 00Z THURSDAY
SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AND DRYING TO
OCCUR. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALSO SENDS 850MB TEMPS DOWNWARD TO 10-12C
BY 18Z THURSDAY...THUS EXPECT COOLER BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
10.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
THE DEEP PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS GOING TO EJECT OUT ON FRIDAY
WHILE NEW TROUGHING REFORMS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THAT
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...IT PUSHES AND
FLATTENS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TOWARDS US. HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRY...WITH ANY
CONVECTION GOING UP WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN IA
IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE. HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THAT WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS EAST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION INTO US. CONSENSUS CHANCES OF 60 WEST TO 20
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND 30-40 FOR SATURDAY SEEM REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS GROWING AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS OF AN MCS TO
FORM FRIDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN IOWA...WHICH THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. IF THIS INDEED HAPPENS...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER US
COULD BE GREATLY REDUCED AS THE MCS TRAPS ANY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TOWARDS US. BEYOND SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
HANDLING OF THAT EJECTING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
SUGGESTIONS OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPROACHING THE AREA
ON SUNDAY PER 10.12Z CANADIAN/GFS...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE 10.12Z ECMWF STILL HAS THAT
FRONT BACK IN THE DAKOTAS KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THESE TWO MODEL
GROUPS BECOME REVERSED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN AND THE CANADIAN/GFS HAVING IT SOUTH OF US.
THUS...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY FEATURE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK AROUND NORMAL
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP OR COOL DOWN BEING IN A MEAN NORTHWEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...RECENT RAIN AND RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY ON THE WISCONSIN SIDE OVERNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES BUT EXPECT A BULK OF
THE AREA TO BE VFR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF WESTERN U.S. ALREADY
PRODUCING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN OVER WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS AND WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NOT REACH US...
ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL DURING TUESDAY MORNING HOURS.
THIS BROAD FRONTOGENETIC REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE COULD
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING TO
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH WILL ADVECT INTO TAF SITES GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST MAY IMPACT OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH MORE RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT...THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AT THE CURRENT TIME. AS A RESULT...THE
STEADY RAINFALL HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EASTWARD...AND ACCORDING TO OUR
LOCAL HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...THEY SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF ALBANY...AS MODELS
SHOWING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AROUND 400-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE
DEVELOPING. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW
BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THIS IS WHERE
THERE WILL BE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING THUNDER TODAY.
DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS ANY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE PONDING OR
MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. FLOOD WATCH FOR
BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE STEADY RAIN
HAS ENDED AND FORECASTS HAVE ALL RIVER POINTS REMAINING WITHIN
THEIR BANKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN AGAIN BY CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
60S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE
AGAIN A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG BACK INTO
EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. THE THREAT FOR DOWNPOURS/THUNDER WILL
DIMINISH...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BREEZE REMAINING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECTING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...AS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM INTO
THE 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A WET DAY FOR THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SETUP LOOKS MORE LIKE A COOL-SEASON
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS OUR AREA WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
DEEPENING CYCLONE. STRONG F-GEN AND QG FORCING COULD RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL. TIMING...EXACT TRACK AND
POSITION...AS WELL AS QPF ARE HIGHLY IN QUESTION THOUGH DUE TO THE
CHAOTIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. STILL...THE MODEL TRENDS
CANNOT BE IGNORED AND WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY. WILL
START MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO DUE TO ALREADY
HIGH RIVER LEVELS AND SATURATED GROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE SYSTEM EXITS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A SLIGHT BIT MORE STEEP THAN
USUAL AS WELL. ACKNOWLEDGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY...ENDING BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLER IN THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH POTENTIALLY QUITE A BIT OF SUN. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GET CLEARER WITH
TIME. FOR NOW...INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND ON MONDAY MUCH OF THE
SAME...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS USUAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. A STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD IS LIFTING NORTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM KALB/KPSF/KPOU. SOME
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KGFL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS
ARE VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT THE SITES. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z-15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR AS THE
LOWER CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVES OUT AND DECREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS MAY RISE BACK TO
MVFR/LOW VFR LEVELS...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE SYSTEM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUNDER HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE
TERMINALS YET...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED WITH LATER TAF
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE SITES BY 00Z-02Z BUT VCSH INCLUDED AT KGFL...KALB
AND KPSF THROUGH 06Z SINCE GUIDANCE NOT CLEAR ON EXACT TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF THE RAIN. AFTER 06Z...LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. KGFL
AND KPSF COULD TREND TOWARD IFR AFTER 06Z...WHILE KALB AND KPOU
SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE MVFR RANGE.
THE SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT TO CALM VALUES TO E/SE WINDS AT
5-10 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR AROUND 10 KT
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU...MVFR/IFR. -RA LIKELY.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR QUITE A WHILE...AS WE
ARE IN THE MIDST OF A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THEN A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STEADIER RAIN IN THE PROCESS OF TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY LIGHT INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HOUSATONIC AND EASTERN CATSKILL BASINS...WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING MAIN STEM RIVERS TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THEREFORE
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES.
DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS LOCALIZED MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DOWNPOURS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS RIVER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO DRY OUT BEFORE THEN.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
724 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. A COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
BULK OF EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT IS
LIFTING INTO NH AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CURRENT OBS
SUGGEST THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE S COAST FROM COASTAL CT
INTO SE MA. NOT EXPECTING A VERY RAPID NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS
FRONT DUE TO BOTH PARALLEL STEERING FLOW AND A LACK OF DIURNAL
HEATING GIVEN THE FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND THE REGION.
AM NOTING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS PARTICULARLY IN CT AND SW MASS
WHICH WILL LIKELY EXPAND E SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE MORE RAPIDLY HEAR AND ALLOW
DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM FRONT AS A
FOCUS FOR LIFT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM IN NY AND SHIFT INTO CT/RI AND SE MASS IN PARTICULAR.
ADJUST POPS AND SKIES TOWARD LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING
THE PRECIP WELL THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS SNE AND HAVE NOTED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVIER
SHOWERS GENERALLY PRODUCING 0.25-0.50"/HR RATES BUT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1"/HR IN ANY TSTMS. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH SW CT AND EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TAPER
OFF FROM SW TO NE THROUGH 12Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING A FEW HOURS
LATER ACROSS N MA AND S NH. WE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH IN CT AS
THE RAIN IS MOVING OUT...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO THE WATCH ELSEWHERE
AS HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE WE EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH
WITH DECENT MID LEVEL COOLING AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL FROM -8 TO 12C.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION BUT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF CT/RI AND
SE MA. GFS/NAM GENERATING SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CT AND RI BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WILL
DEVELOP WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY EVEN FURTHER. MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS STILL AROUND 1.5" BUT LOW PROB OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS CT/RI AND POSSIBLY SE MA. WE
DO HAVE ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR BUT LACK OF SFC INSTABILITY DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LIMITING
FACTORS.
TEMP FORECAST WILL BE A TOUGH ONE AS WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS SNE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY
AND POTENTIAL FOR 70S TO THE S. SO BUST POTENTIAL IS LARGE. WE
USED THE NAM DEPICTION OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH HAS IT STALL JUST S
OF THE MASS PIKE NEAR MA/CT/RI BORDER. SO WE HAVE 70S ACROSS CT/RI
AND PORTIONS OF SE MA...COOLING TO THE 60S TO THE N AND UPPER 50S
S NH AND NE MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE
EVENING WITH EVENING SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS DIMINISHING. BUT A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING
IN FROM THE N OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. WE HAVE HIGHEST
POPS CONFINED TO THE N.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COASTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
* COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY WARMUP FOR WEEKEND.
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
11/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEREFORE...HAVE
MODERATE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN OVERALL TRENDS. THE PATTERN IS MARKED
BY TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW...A DECENT RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS...AND A GRADUALLY DIGGING AND DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE E
COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE HERE...AND COOL UPPER
LVL CUTOFF DIVING S FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THROUGH FRI...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WX TO CONTINUE INTO FRI SAVE FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATE
WED INTO EARLY THU. THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WX DETAILS ARE ON EXACTLY
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRES WHICH WILL PASS S OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND TIMING
OF PRECIP ONSET AND ENDING. GIVEN THERE ARE ONLY SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/PERSISTENCE FOR THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRI. WILL FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE /NOW WET/ GFS IS TRYING TO PUSH A
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AS IT SLIDES E.
DETAILS...
WED INTO WED NIGHT...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WED
AS LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. AM STILL NOTING A BIT OF
REMNANT MOISTURE AND SLIGHT LIFT WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
-SHRA DURING THE DAY WED...BUT THESE SHOULD END AND GIVE WAY TO
DRY WX BY LATE DAY AND WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE OR NORMAL GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY AWAY FROM THE S
COAST.
THU AND THU NIGHT...
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE E FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WHICH GIVEN STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE W-E SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND THE S COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE DAY THU AND THU NIGHT. UPPER LVL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN WITH TIME AS CUTOFF LOW SLIDES S FROM CANADA SO
EXPECT THAT THE SFC LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN WITH TIME AS WELL
ESPECIALLY ONCE OUT OVER THE WATER. LOW AND MID LVL MASS FIELDS
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEFORMATION AND MID-LOW LVL FRONTOGENESIS
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AS THIS LOW SLIDES AND WITH PWAT VALUES OF
1.0-1.5 INCHES SO SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THU NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME
FLOODING GIVEN THE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE LAST WEEK AND
EARLY THIS WEEK. ONE OTHER THREAT WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON LLJ STRENGTH SOMEWHAT
WITH THIS UPDATE. WINDS ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY FOR S COASTAL AND
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
FRI...
INITIAL LOW PRES SLIDES E OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING WITH A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND. STILL HAVE MOISTURE IN THE
SOUNDING WITH THIS FROPA AND LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AROUND 6C/KM. SO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MAY LINGER
WITH THIS FRONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE WEEKEND INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION AS THE WEAKENING RIDGE FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES OVER THE E SEABOARD. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
TO THE N...NOT EXPECTING THIS RIDGE TO BE QUITE AS STRONG...BUT IT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WX FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
STARTING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE MODERATING BY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD IFR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...HOLDING ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST COAST UNDER E FLOW. AREAS IN CT/RI/SE MA MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS TO VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER AREAS LIFT CLOSE TO
/IF NOT INTO/ MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
N. CT/RI/SE MA MAY ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT UNTIL EARLY MORNING
AS FOG DEVELOPS THANKS TO WET SFCS AND WEAK FLOW INITIALLY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR LINGERS MUCH OF
THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY SEE BRIEF LIFT TO MVFR ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS ARE ALLOWED TO SHIFT MORE TO THE N-NW THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
POCKETS OF MVFR. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS GUST 20-25 KT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN A PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE DAY THU INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
PRES PASSES S OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT BRINGS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DURING FRI AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF SW GUSTS TO 25 KT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE S COASTAL
WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE MORNING AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. ACROSS THE NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...EAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE UNDERCUT
WNAWAVE GUIDANCE BUT STILL EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT OVER THE
S COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WED AND WED NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO QUIET BOATING WEATHER
BY LATE WED NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BE BELOW CRITERIA
AT THE START. APPROACHING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SEAS AND
WINDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY GALES ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PASSES OVER THE
SOUTHER WATERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH END SCA.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SCA SEAS AS WINDS DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WE KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH GOING AS THERE IS STILL SOME HEAVY RAIN
TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WAS DROPPED FOR CT WHERE THE
RAIN IS MOVING OUT.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT SOME SMALLER STREAMS
ARE ALSO VULNERABLE TO FLOOD...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN RI AND SE MA
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SO FAR WITH AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES.
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI...
WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SW RI MAINLY FOR THE PAWCATUCK
RIVER WHICH WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
BASED ON LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE MINOR FLOODING MAY ALSO AFFECT
FOLLOWING RIVERS...
* ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD MA
* SUDBURY RIVER AT SAXONVILLE/FRAMINGHAM MA
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PA ATTM. A BAND
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PA AND
ACROSS OUR AREA (MOSTLY NRN 2/3RDS) THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE TRENDS WELL. THE POPS HAVE BEEN
HELD AT THE CHC LEVEL AS THE PREVIOUS FCST HAD THEM. OVERALL QPF
WILL NOT BE GREAT SINCE THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MODEST MOTION TO
THEM. QPF OF .10 OR .20 POSSIBLE.
I HAVE NOT CHANGED TEMP/DEW POINTS MUCH WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE SOUTH. COOLER ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE 70 TO 75. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SW AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD MAKE FOR A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING OUR REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
THURSDAY`S SYSTEM MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THAT TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THERE WED
NIGHT AND THEN A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG IT
THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER VERY WET
SCENARIO FOR THU/THU NIGHT, SO WE HAVE MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED FLOODING WITH RIVERS
AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH.
DECREASING POPS FOR FRI WITH ONLY A CHC FOR A SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU/FRI WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S (SOUTH) AND MID TO UPPER 50S (NORTH).
A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTLES ACROSS OUR AREA AND REMAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY. WE WILL WRITE A DRY FCST FOR NOW...AND HOLD OFF
THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A
BIT THIS WEEKEND AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO THE VFR CATEGORY DURING THE MORNING
AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THERE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PASS OVERHEAD AROUND
MIDDAY. IT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND THE TIMING IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT, NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THIS
EVENING...THE WIND SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND DIMINISH. WE
SHOULD LOSE THE WIND GUSTS TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING
IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME FOG.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THRU FRI...MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOSTLY VFR. FOG POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN AROUND 5 FEET THIS
MORNING. AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS, THE WAVE
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
UNTIL 500 PM. HOWEVER, WE WILL SHORTEN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE BY FOUR HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE, ENDING IT AT 100 PM.
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND BRING LOW-END
SCA WINDS/SEAS TO THE OCEAN AREAS LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SCA
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER DEL BAY TOO.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY IS ON THE CUSP BETWEEN LOW AND
MODERATE. THE WIND SHOULD BE A LITTLE WEST OF SOUTH TODAY,
LIMITING THE RISK. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE OFF THE COAST. THE MARGINALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
MAY LEAD TO A MODERATE RISK IN SPOTS. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ERRED
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND WE HAVE ISSUED A MODERATE RISK FOR
TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ454-
455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...IOVINO/O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THIS HAS ENHANCED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THIS CLUSTER HAS INCHED ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE COAST. AS DIURNAL HEATING HAS SET UP, NEW CONVECTION
IS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT
OVER THE WATER. THE HRRR HAS CAPTURED THIS WELL SHOWING GOOD
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE COASTAL COLLIER AREA JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET. THE GRIDS HAVE THIS DEPICTED SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A TAD BIT OF COOLING AT
500 MB AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ADDITIONAL COOLING THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADDED A SMALL
WIND THREAT TO THE HWO MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE
MARINE ZONES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO CHANGES THERE ARE
PLANNED.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO A
MID-LAT UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT CELL CENTERED BETWEEN
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. MID/UPPER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TUTT CELL CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS EAST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE WESTWARD PROGRESS
TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA WAS EVIDENT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WAS ANALYZED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS TO
THE SE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND GENERALLY
INDICATES WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TODAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE (PWAT ~1.9") AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR MIA SHOW NEAR CALM WIND PROFILES UP TO 5KFT WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS
TODAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROVIDED THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM AROUND FORT
LAUDERDALE TO NORTH MIAMI BEACH PROVIDED THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...WHICH WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS LOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FALLING
UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE WITH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH...WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WEAK FLOW COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-WEEKEND)...
THE MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SETTING UP JUST
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ALONG WITH SOME
DRIER NW MID/UPPER FLOW SPREADING OVER THE STATE. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVERHEAD OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROUGH SAGS SOUTH OVER
THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WITH
MAINLY ISLTD/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION...
VERY SIMILAR MESOSCALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
YESTERDAY. EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WEAKER THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GULF BREEZE TO SURGE FURTHER INLAND.
THEREFORE BELIEVE MOST CONVECTION SHOULD STAY INLAND BUT DID KEEP
VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ALSO...COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT ANY TAF SITE
BUT LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
MARINE...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS
CONTINUING.
FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE
RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 88 75 / 30 20 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 79 88 77 / 40 30 40 30
MIAMI 88 77 89 76 / 50 40 40 30
NAPLES 90 75 88 75 / 40 20 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1058 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNING...LINGERING STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT AND
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. UPSTREAM SHOWERS OVER
THE UPSTATE AND MIDLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. TODAY...THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE
TAIL END OF UPSTREAM CHANNELED VORT ENERGY EXTENDING OUT OF THE
SHARP TROUGH THAT STRETCHES TO THE NORTH. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE 12Z CHS RAOB BEARS THIS OUT WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED PWAT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND NOTABLE
DRYING FROM 850 MB UP. WE WILL ALSO SEE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH CURRENTLY LINES UP WELL WITH THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT. WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON...HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE 3000-3500 J/KG
OF CAPE. IN FACT LOOKING AT RAP SOUNDINGS...THE NEAR STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MARKED BY HIGH DCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
1200-1400 J/KG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
REGION. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPPING EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE BY
MID AFTERNOON. SO THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED
AT BEST...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES. I HAVE
KEPT THE POP TREND BASICALLY THE SAME...OTHER THAN TO EXPAND THE
CHANCE POP REGION TO INCLUDE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. THE HWO MENTION
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS STILL ON TRACK...THOUGH I WILL ADD A
MENTION OF POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVENING CONVECTION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
MOVING INTO OR POSSIBLY THROUGH THE GEORGIA I-16 CORRIDOR. MODELS
ARE 50/50 ON WHETHER ANY CONVECTION MAKES IT TO THE ALTAMAHA BUT
IF IT DOES IT MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE UNTIL MID EVENING AND
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE TONIGHT...MAINLY
DRY WITH A VERY LOW END LINGERING RISK OF CONVECTION TO THE S OF
I-16 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY....CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND DRYER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS AS DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BEHIND A FRONT SHIFTING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A DRY
DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
SO FAR THIS YEAR...WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LVL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS DEW POINTS REACH THE LOW/MID 70S WHILE
STRONG SFC AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING LEAD TO SFC TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OF 95 DEGREES
AT BOTH CHS AND SAV AIRPORTS SHOULD CONVECTION OR CLOUD COVER HOLD
OFF UNTIL EVENING HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT AND H5
SHORTWAVE. SHOULD CONVECTION TRIGGER BEFORE NIGHTFALL...SBCAPES
BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR -6C...MID LVL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C...AND 25-30 KT LOW LVL FLOW SUGGESTS
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER SC ZONES AFTER SUNSET.
FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH GUIDANCE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTING OVERALL
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN QUIET OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE.
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER SATURDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WED. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERALL POTENTIAL PRECLUDES ANY THUNDER/CB MENTIONS IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SW SURGING GENERALLY LESS THAN MODEL EXPECTATIONS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DISTURBING WIND FIELDS
BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AT BUOY 41004 NEARING DAYBREAK.
THROUGH TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL AVERAGE 15 KT WITH NOCTURNAL SURGING
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 3 TO 5 FT OFFSHORE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY THEN APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 2-5 FT...HIGHEST
OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DURING FROPA. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN IMPROVE
AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
RIP CURRENTS...WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THINGS INCLUDING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A WEAK
ASTRONOMICAL FACTOR.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS CAUSING SHOWERS AS IT MOVES
TO THE EAST. IT IS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CAE CWA
AND SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
LIGHTNING DETECTION IS PICKING UP A LITTLE LIGHTNING...SO INCLUDED
A 60 PERCENT AREA MOVING EAST MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CAE. PUT
SHOWERS IN GRIDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.
OTHERWISE TODAY...MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EARLY WITH A
WEAK IMPULSE FOLLOWING BEHIND IT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
A NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO DRAG A SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1
INCH NORTH TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH...AND K INDEX VALUES FALLING INTO
THE 20S. MODELS INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITIES
DEVELOPING... HE STRONGEST INSTABILITIES ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR
THE CSRA/SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LIMITED BY DRIER AIR AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING...BUT
WHAT DOES FORM COULD BE SEVERE BASED ON DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SOME ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR EXPECTED AS
WELL. DRIER AIR AND MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS
REGION NEAR THE CSRA IN A SEE TEXT. OTHERWISE...LESS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO WENT LOWER 90S FOR
TUESDAY. DECIDED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO 3-4 HOURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS 22-23 PERCENT SOUTHERN PART INCLUDING
CSRA. 16-18 PERCENT POPS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRYING OCCURRING. AGAIN... WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
GIVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY...EXPECT THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS JUNE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER SHOULD TAKE HOLD FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING A BIT TO AROUND 90
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT MODIFY TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE UPSTATE SC...DRIFTING SE. LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE AND DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS OUR NORTHERN FA...SO THE
ACTIVITY MAY NOT REACH OUR TERMINALS. HOWEVER...RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST
SOME SHRA POSSIBLE...SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MVFR TO
IFR CIGS. AFTER MORNING RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING
THE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPCTED TODAY. DRIER AIR AND SOME MID
LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANYTHING THAT DOES
FORM COULD BE SEVERE DUE TO EXPECTED STRONG INSTABILITIES.
HOWEVER...CHANCES OF TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
610 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS CAUSING SHOWERS AS IT MOVES
TO THE EAST. IT IS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CAE CWA
AND SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
LIGHTNING DETECTION IS PICKING UP A LITTLE LIGHTNING...SO INCLUDED
A 60 PERCENT AREA MOVING EAST MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CAE. PUT
SHOWERS IN GRIDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.
OTHERWISE TODAY...MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EARLY WITH A
WEAK IMPULSE FOLLOWING BEHIND IT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
A NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO DRAG A SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 1
INCH NORTH TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH...AND K INDEX VALUES FALLING INTO
THE 20S. MODELS INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITIES
DEVELOPING... HE STRONGEST INSTABILITIES ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR
THE CSRA/SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LIMITED BY DRIER AIR AND SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING...BUT
WHAT DOES FORM COULD BE SEVERE BASED ON DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SOME ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR EXPECTED AS
WELL. DRIER AIR AND MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS
REGION NEAR THE CSRA IN A SEE TEXT. OTHERWISE...LESS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO WENT LOWER 90S FOR
TUESDAY. DECIDED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO 3-4 HOURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS 22-23 PERCENT SOUTHERN PART INCLUDING
CSRA. 16-18 PERCENT POPS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DRYING OCCURRING. AGAIN... WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
GIVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY...EXPECT THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS JUNE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER SHOULD TAKE HOLD FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING A BIT TO AROUND 90
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT OVERALL NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT MODIFY TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPSTATE SC...DRIFTING SE. LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE AND DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS OUR NORTHERN FA...SO STILL
THINKING THE ACTIVITY MAY NOT REACH OUR TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...
STRATUS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
AFTER MORNING RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. DRIER AIR AND SOME MID
LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANYTHING THAT DOES
FORM COULD BE SEVERE DUE TO EXPECTED STRONG INSTABILITIES.
HOWEVER...CHANCES OF TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
937 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE
RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES.
THE RUC AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WINDS FOR
TODAY...WITH RUC DOING THE BEST. AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT USING THESE MODELS. THE NEW DATA SUGGESTED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONTACTED THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR BOTH
COUNTIES WHO AGREED WITH THE ENHANCED FIRE RISK SO HAVE EXPANDED THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE COUNTIES.
ALSO ALTERED THE PRECIP. GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA HAS NO MIXED 1KM CAPE DUE TO THE VERY
LOW DEW POINTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE...SO WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
DRY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN. A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THE HIGHER DEW POINTS ALLOW THE 1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE TO INCREASE SO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DOWN BURST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TOWARD
MIDNIGHT THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE AREA.
ON A SIDE NOT...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MEET/EXCEED RECORDS
AND MAY ALSO MET/EXCEED ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR TODAY:
LOCATION YEAR RECORD
GOODLAND 2001 100
MCCOOK 1918 106
BURLINGTON 1918 102
HILL CITY 1953 106
COLBY 1918 104
TRIBUNE 2010 102
YUMA 1956 100
HERE IS A LIST OF ALL TIME RECORDS:
LOCATION YEAR RECORD
GOODLAND 1940 111
MCCOOK 2012 115
BURLINGTON 1990 107
HILL CITY 1936 117
YUMA 2012 111
TRIBUNE 2012 111
COLBY 2012 113
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND TROUGH/DRY LINE SOUTH...RESULTING IN
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE FORECAST AREA AND ENHANCED
DOWN SLOPE WARMING. END RESULT WILL BE RECORD BREAKING HEAT AND
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MONTHLY OR EVEN ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS AROUND 110...BUT WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITY HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE UP THE RIDGE OUT OF
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST
BY 12Z. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER RELATIVELY SPEAKING...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SQUELCH ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RETURN FLOW GETS
UNDER WAY AT THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENS COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WITH MUCH BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE EAST BUT BEST LIFT WILL BE IN THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE JUN 11
2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND PLACING OUR AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND BECOMES DOMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
COOL OUTFLOW WHICH COULD HAVE A RATHER WIDESPREAD IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN GREATEST COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT AS ANOMALOUS AS HAS OCCURRED EARLY THIS WEEK. MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED INITIAL GRIDS BY SMOOTHING POP FIELDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE WIND
DIRECTION IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED
AT BOTH SITES WITH A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AT GLD BY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT GLD. A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT BOTH SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING EITHER TAF SITE
IS LOW. OUTFLOW FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR TAF SITES
WOULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THE WIND FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT MCK BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1032 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT
THEN EXIT SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...MODIFIED THE POPS AND QPF USING THE SREF FOR THE
POPS BRINGING THE RAINFALL SHIELD FURTHER N AND W. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR AND 06Z GFS DID THE BEST JOB W/THE TIMING ALTHOUGH
STILL SLOW COMPARED TO THE RADAR TRENDS. RAINFALL ALREADY HITTING
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND POINTS TO THE WEST ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LIGHT. BLENDED HPC AND GFS FOR THE QPF OUT THROUGH 00Z WHICH
POINTS TO 2 AREAS OF HEAVIER QPF. 1 AREA IS BACK TOWARD THE
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY REGION DUE TO UPSLOPE & THE 2ND AREA IS FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES ARE DOING WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... YET ANOTHER WET SYSTEM TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE CWA. A 1005 MB LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NY STATE TODAY. A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY MID AFTERNOON...AND
THE ENERGY FROM THE LOW IN NY STATE GETS ABSORBED BY THE NEW LOW
IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE LOW MOVES TO NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAIN
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A
VERY WET DAY FOR DOWNEAST MAINE WITH RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT NORTH OF
BAXTER STATE PARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK
AROUND THE LOW TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE FOR DOWNEAST
AND CENTRAL MAINE WHILE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY
DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
BRING RAIN TO DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BIT OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT THE RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTH MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH JUST A CHANCE
FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS. THE SKY MAY BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY WITH DOWNEAST AREAS
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BEFORE DAWN. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE DOWNEAST LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE EAST WILL CARRY A SMALL
LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN
WILL BE MOSTLY LIKELY DOWNEAST ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DRIER AIR MAY
MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IN OUR ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB THIS
MORNING WITH IFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR TODAY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER
TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KHUL...BUT FROM KPQI NORTH TO KFVE
CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN VFR OR AT WORSE LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR ACROSS
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. CALM CLEAR AIR AND MOIST GROUND MAY THEN RESULT
IN FOG LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR IN SPOTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AS OF 2 AM EDT SEAS RUNNING 2-2.5 FT AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 06Z THU FOR SLY SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND A FEW WINDS GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD THEN DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BRING SCA CONDITIONS
AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WED MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
QPF AND HAS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AN INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 2 INCHES IN WASHINGTON COUNTY. USED A BLEND OF THE INHERITED
QPF WITH THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE RFC. AMOUNTS WERE MANUALLY
LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE AREAS UP IN THE SJV MAY
GET LITTLE OR NO RAIN FROM THIS EVENT AND THE FORECAST QPF WAS
LOWERED TO < 0.10". WILL DOWNPLAY THE FLOODING POTENTIAL A BIT IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND THE WATCH MIGHT BE DROPPED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ011-015>017-
029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
646 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT
THEN EXIT SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN FIZZLED OUT AS IT LIMPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT BAY AND THE OUTER ISLANDS. THE RADAR HAS
FILLED IN NICELY OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE.
RAIN WILL SPREAD NE THIS MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.
THE HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN AS OF
10Z. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO INCREASE THEM IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH TO
BLOCK OUT THE SUN IN MOST AREAS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER WET SYSTEM TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE CWA. A 1005 MB LOW
OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NY
STATE TODAY. A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SECONDARY LOW MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THE ENERGY FROM THE LOW
IN NY STATE GETS ABSORBED BY THE NEW LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
EVENING. THE LOW MOVES TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH
AND EAST TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET DAY FOR DOWNEAST MAINE
WITH RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. RAIN
WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT NORTH OF BAXTER STATE PARK BY LATE IN THE
DAY. MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK AROUND THE LOW TONIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN CONTINUE FOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE WHILE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
BRING RAIN TO DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BIT OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT THE RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTH MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH JUST A CHANCE
FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS. THE SKY MAY BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY WITH DOWNEAST AREAS
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BEFORE DAWN. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE DOWNEAST LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE EAST WILL CARRY A SMALL
LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN
WILL BE MOSTLY LIKELY DOWNEAST ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DRIER AIR MAY
MOVE IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IN OUR ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL THEN APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT KBGR AND KBHB THIS
MORNING WITH IFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR TODAY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER
TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KHUL...BUT FROM KPQI NORTH TO KFVE
CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN VFR OR AT WORSE LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR ACROSS
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. CALM CLEAR AIR AND MOIST GROUND MAY THEN RESULT
IN FOG LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR IN SPOTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AS OF 2 AM EDT SEAS RUNNING 2-2.5 FT AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 06Z THU FOR SLY SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND A FEW WINDS GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD THEN DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BRING SCA CONDITIONS
AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WED MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
QPF AND HAS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AN INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 2 INCHES IN WASHINGTON COUNTY. USED A BLEND OF THE INHERITED
QPF WITH THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE RFC. AMOUNTS WERE MANUALLY
LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE AREAS UP IN THE SJV MAY
GET LITTLE OR NO RAIN FROM THIS EVENT AND THE FORECAST QPF WAS
LOWERED TO < 0.10". WILL DOWNPLAY THE FLOODING POTENTIAL A BIT IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND WILL BRIEF THE INCOMING SHIFT THAT THE FLOOD
WATCH CAN LIKELY BE DROPPED LATER TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ011-015>017-
029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAST WNW FLOW ALF
WITH H3 WINDS UP TO 100KT ALONG THE CNDN BORDER BTWN CLOSED LO OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA AND UPR RDG OVER THE PLAINS. UPR MI IS DOMINATED BY
SHRTWV RDG TO THE NW OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE LOWER LKS/MID
ATLANTIC STATES...WITH WEAK HI PRES RDG BRINGING DRY WX TO UPR MI
EARLY THIS MRNG EVEN THOUGH SCT-BKN CLDS ARE IMPACTING THE AREA.
SHRTWV ON THE CYC SIDE OF 100KT H3 JET CORE IN FAST WLY FLOW ALF IS
MOVING THRU SW ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF THE CNDN BORDER AND CAUSING
SOME SHRA/A FEW TS FM THE MN ARROWHEAD TOWARD ISLE ROYALE/NW LK SUP
UNDER THE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND WELL E OF H85 COLD
FNT/DRY LINE MOVING THRU NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING JUST N OF THE MN BORDER.
TDAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SHRA/ISOLD TS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD IS
PROGGED TO DRIVE E ACRS NRN LK SUP AND INTO ONTARIO E OF THE LK THIS
AFTN. SINCE BULK OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SHIFT W-E JUST N OF UPR
MI...WHICH WILL BE ON THE ACYC SIDE OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...
SUSPECT THE BULK OF THE SHRA NOW OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WL REMAIN
JUST N OF THE LAND CWA...WITH THE SOMEWHAT HIER POPS FM ISLE ROYALE
TO THE KEWEENAW THIS MRNG BEFORE DRYING/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ARRIVE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL/RECENT
RAPID REFRESH MODEL APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON POPS FOR THIS
MRNG...SO USED THAT GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO
WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL CNVCTN MIGHT DVLP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF
THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COOL/DRY FNT. BULK
OF MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING QVECTOR CVNGC ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING
SHRTWV IMPACTING THIS AREA INTO EARLY AFTN...WHEN CNVGC BTWN LK
BREEZES OFF SUP/MI MIGHT PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR THE CNVCTN. MODIFIED
NAM FCST SDNG FOR ERY AT 18Z FOR SFC T/TD OF 73/57 YIELDS SBCAPE
NEAR 525 J/KG...SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS OVER E AND SCENTRAL
CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN. AFT 18Z...THE WINDOW FOR TS DVLPMENT
SHOULD CLOSE WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING STEADY DRYING ALF WITH
SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H6 ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS. OVER THE W...SKIES SHOULD TURN MOSUNNY WITH
ARRIVAL OF DRYING IN THE LO/MID TROP. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE
12-13C RANGE AND MIXING TO H75 ON NAM FCST SNDGS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO REACH AS HI AS THE LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W/SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK
MODERATION IN THE LLVL NW FLOW.
TNGT...WITH DRY AIR OVHD/LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT A TRANQUIL
NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMP DROP AS WINDS ARE FCST TO BE LGT
UNDER WEAK HI PRES RDG PASSING ACRS UPR MI. SOME HI CLDS MAY PUSH
INTO MAINLY THE WI BORDER COUNTIES LATE ON NRN FRINGES OF SHRTWV
MOVING INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY LATE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAINS INFLUENCED BY
TROUGHING MOST OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS RIDGE OVER CNTRL CANADA AND CNTRL CONUS
TRIES TO MAKE IT TO THE UPPER LAKES. RIDGE LOSES STEAM THOUGH AS
BY SUNDAY YET ANOTHER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WHICH
KNOCKS DOWN HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PATTERN DOES NOT
HOLD MUCH IN WAY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CWA...BUT WILL TREND AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H85 THERMAL TROUGHING AFFECTS
THE REGION. MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING OCCURS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE NORTHERLY WINDS.
UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE PRESSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH H85 WARM FRONT AND
ALL THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE OVER NEB AND IOWA...NOT CAUSING ANY
CONCERN HERE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER H7 DWPNT/RH FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CNTRL
MN AND CNTRL WI. MAYBE AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS OR SPRINKLES WITH
THE H7 MOISTURE BUT AGAIN IMPACT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THIS FAR NORTH.
EVEN FARTHER NORTH...MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE SLIDING WNW TO ESE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH WAVE AXIS NOT
COMING ACROSS UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE GEM-NH WHICH
SHOWED WAVE AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NOW
KEEPS IT ALONG AND NORTH OF NORTH SHORE OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. SO WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AFTN
COOLING PROVIDED BY LAKE BREEZES. H85 TEMPS OVER 10C INDICATE MAX
TEMPS 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AWAY FM LAKE MODIFICATION.
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SLOWER...BUT ALSO STRONGER YET. ASSOCIATED
H85 LOW STRONGER OVER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WHILE H85 RIDGE STAYS
PUT OVER MANITOBA. NORTH FLOW BTWN THE FEATURES NOW ALLOWS H85 TEMPS
TO FALL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH GFS TURNING UP CHILLY +3C AT 18Z. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH NOT AS COLD...BUT STILL HAVE TRENDED COOLER OVER LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING OVR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN SHOWING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH COLD AIR COMING IN AT LOW-LEVELS FIRST.
AT FACE VALUE...SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE/STRATIFORM LGT RAIN
FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER AND
CLOUDIER FORECAST. ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER SMALL UPSLOPE AREA OF
NCNTRL. BY MID-LATE AFTN...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING TAKE OVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY ON THURSDAY
EVENING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS /PWAT LESS THAN 50 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IF WINDS END UP LIGHTER...WILL NEED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY MENTION SOME FROST. HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALL AREAS.
MOST WARMING WILL OCCUR INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHERE TEMPS WILL
PUSH ABOVE 70 DEGREES.
BY THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO MOVES EAST...RESULTING IN
LIGHT S/SE WINDS AT THE SFC. H85 WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY THOUGH WHICH KEEPS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT WELL TO THE
SOUTH OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRIMARY SHRA/TSRA
TO BE ROAMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT SO CHANCES OF APPRECIABLE RAIN
LOOK MINIMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON
ADVECTING LEFTOVER H85-H7 MOISTURE ACROSS UPPER LAKES THOUGH SO AT
THE LEAST COULD SEE INCREASED MID CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHRA
DURING THIS TIME THOUGH. PREVIOUS RUNS OF ECMWF WERE LESS GENEROUS
WITH THE MOISTURE. SINCE ECMWF USUALLY LEADS THE WAY IN VERIFICATION
AT LONGER RANGES...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR FAR WEST CLOSER TO SFC TROUGH AND GREATER H85
MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS IDEA WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF QPF ON SATURDAY AFTN. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN ON SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SFC-H85
LOW DROPPING ACROSS AREA ON WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH JET ENERGY ALSO
INCREASING. SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING MAY BRING CHANCE OF
ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA. DO NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN GOING FOR
HIGHER POPS AND WILL JUST RUN WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS. SFC FRONT
WORKS THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
EXPECT MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FM THE NW AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING FOLLOWING COLD FROPA THAT MIGHT TRIGGER A FEW
-SHRA MAINLY AT CMX AND SAW. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO
TNGT. CONCERNED THERE COULD BE MORE PATCHY FOG OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY
AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 15KT OR LESS
THRU WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WAVES WILL
BECOME CHOPPY UP TO 4 FEET. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN
RESULTS IN LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE RAIN OCCURRING ON THE LAKE IS RESULTING IN FOG OVER WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT THE FOG BY FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
613 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THIN BY 18Z WHEN SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL05 DEVELOP. A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL TURN WINDS
TO THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25KT AT KLNK AND KOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY 06Z AND AFTER. AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...NORTH WINDS
MAY BRING MVFR CIGS INTO KOFK BEFORE 12Z.
DERGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AT 07Z WITH AN AREA
OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BIG QUESTION TODAY
WILL BE HOW HOT WILL IT GET IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHILE MOS TOPS OUT IN THE UPPER 90S.
00Z MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON CURRENT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LAST EVENING BUT HRRR HAS TRENDED TOWARD
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE COMPLEX THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN PLACING THE WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON
THEN STALLING THERE WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A BIT
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SLIDING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO COVER THAT POSSIBLE EVENT.
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS PROBLEMATIC WITH MODELS SHOWING NUMEROUS
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AND TRIGGERING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES PROVIDE LIMITED CONFIDENCE TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
949 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERCAST AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...TRAVERSING THE
FRONTAL ZONE TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG. NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 949 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE AND
LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP AT THE SUMMITS IN THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY AT RATES OF 0.10-0.15" PER HOUR. NARROW DRY
SLOT LIFTS NORTH IN ADVANCE OF ELONGATED UPPER LOW...LOCATED
ACROSS WRN NY/PA AT 11Z THIS MORNING. THIS MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD
ALLOW RAINFALL RATES TO TAPER OFF A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL/CHAMPLAIN VLY OF VT. AVAILABLE LOCAL WRF RUNS AS
WELL AS HRRR AND 00/06Z NAM INDICATE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL VT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN
18-22Z. LOWER STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM...SO OVERCAST AREAWIDE
TODAY. THEREAFTER...RAINFALL INTENSIFIES AGAIN WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALOFT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS UNTIL SELY GRADIENT FLOW SLACKENS
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ELONGATED UPR TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SERN ONTARIO SWD INTO ERN
OHIO...MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO NY AT 07Z. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL PA TO SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. GOOD
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN REGIONAL VAD DATA INDICATIVE OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ONGOING FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND
NWD ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES BY 12Z ON SLY 850MB FLOW OF 20-25 KTS; EXPECTED PW
VALUES ARE ABOUT 175-185% OF NORMAL. THE 00Z ALB SOUNDING HAD AN
OBSERVED PW OF 1.73 INCHES SO GFS/NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS IN LINE.
THE SFC LOW AND UPR TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AND
TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTN. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW CENTER...WHICH MAY
REACH INTO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES 09-12Z. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS LESSENING AND IT APPEARS THE
THREAT FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT NARROW WINDOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
GOOD NEWS FOR MITIGATING ANY FLOOD THREAT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S EARLY THIS AM AND WILL ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW 60S FOR AFTN HIGHS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SE
5-10 MPH...BUT LOCALLY NELY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE IMMEDIATE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
RAINFALL: FOR THE 18-HR PERIOD 06Z TUE THRU 00Z WED (8PM THIS
EVENING)...LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1" AREAWIDE...AND
LOCALLY UP TO 1.25" ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
RATES IN THIS EVENT WILL BE STEADY AND PROLONGED...AND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE OR FIELD
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EDT TUESDAY...SFC LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY
OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AT 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO COASTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WWD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS
MAINTAINED 06-12Z PERIOD. ALOFT...500MB LOW BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS
IT MOVES EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN VT AND QUEBEC.
INDICATIONS ARE A WWD EXTENDING DEFORMATION AXIS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER 00Z GFS/NAM SOLNS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50"...HIGHEST OVER THE NRN GREEN MTNS INTO
THE NE KINGDOM. WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST AND PATCHY FOG...TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL MUCH AND LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MID-UPR
50S AREAWIDE.
WEDNESDAY...VERTICAL STACKED LOW PULLS AWAY NEAR/SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD SEE SFC WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE N-NW AT 10-15 MPH. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED...BUT NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK SBCAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN HRS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER WITH VALLEY HIGHS AROUND 70.
WEAK RIDGE BY DEFAULT ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. IT APPEARS A WINDOW OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE.
SATURATED GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS LOOK IDEAL FOR
NOCTURNAL FOG AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE GRIDS 04-12Z THURSDAY.
THURSDAY FEATURES A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING RAPIDLY FROM THE UPR OHIO RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE NJ COAST AROUND 00Z FRIDAY PER GFS SOLN.
SFC LOW DEEPENS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 00Z GFS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ON LOW TRACK EWD ACROSS PA THAN IS THE 00Z NAM. AT 60-HRS
OUT...GENERALLY PREFER THE GFS HERE. THIS TAKES THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST LIGHT
RAIN MOST SECTIONS THURSDAY AFTN. 3" QPF MAX ACROSS E-CENTRAL NY
INTO FAR SRN VT IN GFS SOLN...WITH AROUND 1-1.25" ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH IN TERMS OF FORECAST RAINFALL...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS/QPF ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT DURING 18Z THU THRU 00Z
FRI TIME FRAME...WITH LOWER POPS/LOWER QPF NWD ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS
AROUND 70 IN THE NRN VALLEYS...MID-UPR 60S DEPENDING ON PCPN TIMING
FOR S-CENTRAL VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR DRY WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC/OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AT THE SFC WITH UPPER LEVEL HTS INCREASING AS WELL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE BERMUDA AREA
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND PROGRESS EAST. UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE THE BROAD TROUGH WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH...LEADING TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WKND...BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
LOW 40S TO MID 50S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST AS SLOW MOVING SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH IFR PSBL WITHIN SHOWERS.
A FEW BREAKS FROM PRECIP PSBL FOR ADKS AND PTS SOUTH...BUT AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS OVER THE ADKS THIS AFTN...SE WINDS
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING ON THIS LINE
NOT EXACT AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL FORMATION.
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS/CIGS EXPECTED WITH THIS
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST...SO DO NOT FORESEE VSBYS BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF REGION.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
LIMITED TO FIELD/LOW-LAND AND POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.25" TO 2" ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE ACROSS NERN NY ACROSS FAR NRN VT. HOWEVER...SOILS ARE
SATURATED AREAWIDE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT PONDING OF WATER
IN POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAINFALL WILL BE STEADY AND GENERALLY OF MODERATE INTENSITY. THE
ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL HELP
PRECLUDE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND SHOULD AVOID ANY OF THE
MAIN-STEM RIVERS REACHING FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NEEDED
AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES VIA
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERCAST AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...TRAVERSING THE
FRONTAL ZONE TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG. NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT TUESDAY...STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY AT RATES OF 0.10-0.15" PER HOUR. NARROW DRY
SLOT LIFTS NORTH IN ADVANCE OF ELONGATED UPPER LOW...LOCATED
ACROSS WRN NY/PA AT 11Z THIS MORNING. THIS MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD
ALLOW RAINFALL RATES TO TAPER OFF A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL/CHAMPLAIN VLY OF VT. AVAILABLE LOCAL WRF RUNS AS
WELL AS HRRR AND 00/06Z NAM INDICATE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL VT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN
18-22Z. LOWER STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM...SO OVERCAST AREAWIDE
TODAY. THEREAFTER...RAINFALL INTENSIFIES AGAIN WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALOFT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS UNTIL SELY GRADIENT FLOW SLACKENS
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ELONGATED UPR TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SERN ONTARIO SWD INTO ERN
OHIO...MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO NY AT 07Z. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL PA TO SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. GOOD
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN REGIONAL VAD DATA INDICATIVE OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ONGOING FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND
NWD ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES BY 12Z ON SLY 850MB FLOW OF 20-25 KTS; EXPECTED PW
VALUES ARE ABOUT 175-185% OF NORMAL. THE 00Z ALB SOUNDING HAD AN
OBSERVED PW OF 1.73 INCHES SO GFS/NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS IN LINE.
THE SFC LOW AND UPR TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AND
TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTN. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW CENTER...WHICH MAY
REACH INTO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES 09-12Z. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS LESSENING AND IT APPEARS THE
THREAT FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT NARROW WINDOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
GOOD NEWS FOR MITIGATING ANY FLOOD THREAT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S EARLY THIS AM AND WILL ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW 60S FOR AFTN HIGHS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SE
5-10 MPH...BUT LOCALLY NELY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE IMMEDIATE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
RAINFALL: FOR THE 18-HR PERIOD 06Z TUE THRU 00Z WED (8PM THIS
EVENING)...LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1" AREAWIDE...AND
LOCALLY UP TO 1.25" ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
RATES IN THIS EVENT WILL BE STEADY AND PROLONGED...AND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE OR FIELD
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EDT TUESDAY...SFC LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY
OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AT 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO COASTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WWD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS
MAINTAINED 06-12Z PERIOD. ALOFT...500MB LOW BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS
IT MOVES EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN VT AND QUEBEC.
INDICATIONS ARE A WWD EXTENDING DEFORMATION AXIS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER 00Z GFS/NAM SOLNS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50"...HIGHEST OVER THE NRN GREEN MTNS INTO
THE NE KINGDOM. WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST AND PATCHY FOG...TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL MUCH AND LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MID-UPR
50S AREAWIDE.
WEDNESDAY...VERTICAL STACKED LOW PULLS AWAY NEAR/SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD SEE SFC WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE N-NW AT 10-15 MPH. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED...BUT NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK SBCAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN HRS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER WITH VALLEY HIGHS AROUND 70.
WEAK RIDGE BY DEFAULT ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. IT APPEARS A WINDOW OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE.
SATURATED GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS LOOK IDEAL FOR
NOCTURNAL FOG AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE GRIDS 04-12Z THURSDAY.
THURSDAY FEATURES A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING RAPIDLY FROM THE UPR OHIO RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE NJ COAST AROUND 00Z FRIDAY PER GFS SOLN.
SFC LOW DEEPENS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 00Z GFS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ON LOW TRACK EWD ACROSS PA THAN IS THE 00Z NAM. AT 60-HRS
OUT...GENERALLY PREFER THE GFS HERE. THIS TAKES THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST LIGHT
RAIN MOST SECTIONS THURSDAY AFTN. 3" QPF MAX ACROSS E-CENTRAL NY
INTO FAR SRN VT IN GFS SOLN...WITH AROUND 1-1.25" ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH IN TERMS OF FORECAST RAINFALL...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS/QPF ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT DURING 18Z THU THRU 00Z
FRI TIME FRAME...WITH LOWER POPS/LOWER QPF NWD ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS
AROUND 70 IN THE NRN VALLEYS...MID-UPR 60S DEPENDING ON PCPN TIMING
FOR S-CENTRAL VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR DRY WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC/OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AT THE SFC WITH UPPER LEVEL HTS INCREASING AS WELL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE BERMUDA AREA
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND PROGRESS EAST. UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE THE BROAD TROUGH WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH...LEADING TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WKND...BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
LOW 40S TO MID 50S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST AS SLOW MOVING SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH IFR PSBL WITHIN SHOWERS.
A FEW BREAKS FROM PRECIP PSBL FOR ADKS AND PTS SOUTH...BUT AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS OVER THE ADKS THIS AFTN...SE WINDS
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING ON THIS LINE
NOT EXACCT AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL FORMATION.
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS/CIGS EXPECTED WITH THIS
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST...SO DO NOT FORESEE VSBYS BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF REGION.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
LIMITED TO FIELD/LOW-LAND AND POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.25" TO 2" ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE ACROSS NERN NY ACROSS FAR NRN VT. HOWEVER...SOILS ARE
SATURATED AREAWIDE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT PONDING OF WATER
IN POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAINFALL WILL BE STEADY AND GENERALLY OF MODERATE INTENSITY. THE
ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL HELP
PRECLUDE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND SHOULD AVOID ANY OF THE
MAIN-STEM RIVERS REACHING FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NEEDED
AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES VIA
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERCAST AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...TRAVERSING THE
FRONTAL ZONE TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. MOST SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG. NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT TUESDAY...STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY AT RATES OF 0.10-0.15" PER HOUR. NARROW DRY
SLOT LIFTS NORTH IN ADVANCE OF ELONGATED UPPER LOW...LOCATED
ACROSS WRN NY/PA AT 11Z THIS MORNING. THIS MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD
ALLOW RAINFALL RATES TO TAPER OFF A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL/CHAMPLAIN VLY OF VT. AVAILABLE LOCAL WRF RUNS AS
WELL AS HRRR AND 00/06Z NAM INDICATE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL VT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN
18-22Z. LOWER STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM...SO OVERCAST AREAWIDE
TODAY. THEREAFTER...RAINFALL INTENSIFIES AGAIN WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALOFT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SO...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS UNTIL SELY GRADIENT FLOW SLACKENS
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ELONGATED UPR TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SERN ONTARIO SWD INTO ERN
OHIO...MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO NY AT 07Z. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL PA TO SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. GOOD
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN REGIONAL VAD DATA INDICATIVE OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA ONGOING FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND
NWD ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES BY 12Z ON SLY 850MB FLOW OF 20-25 KTS; EXPECTED PW
VALUES ARE ABOUT 175-185% OF NORMAL. THE 00Z ALB SOUNDING HAD AN
OBSERVED PW OF 1.73 INCHES SO GFS/NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS IN LINE.
THE SFC LOW AND UPR TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD AND
TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTN. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW CENTER...WHICH MAY
REACH INTO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES 09-12Z. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS LESSENING AND IT APPEARS THE
THREAT FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT NARROW WINDOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
GOOD NEWS FOR MITIGATING ANY FLOOD THREAT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S EARLY THIS AM AND WILL ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW 60S FOR AFTN HIGHS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SE
5-10 MPH...BUT LOCALLY NELY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE IMMEDIATE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
RAINFALL: FOR THE 18-HR PERIOD 06Z TUE THRU 00Z WED (8PM THIS
EVENING)...LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1" AREAWIDE...AND
LOCALLY UP TO 1.25" ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
RATES IN THIS EVENT WILL BE STEADY AND PROLONGED...AND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE OR FIELD
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EDT TUESDAY...SFC LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY
OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AT 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO COASTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WWD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS
MAINTAINED 06-12Z PERIOD. ALOFT...500MB LOW BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS
IT MOVES EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN VT AND QUEBEC.
INDICATIONS ARE A WWD EXTENDING DEFORMATION AXIS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER 00Z GFS/NAM SOLNS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50"...HIGHEST OVER THE NRN GREEN MTNS INTO
THE NE KINGDOM. WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST AND PATCHY FOG...TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL MUCH AND LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MID-UPR
50S AREAWIDE.
WEDNESDAY...VERTICAL STACKED LOW PULLS AWAY NEAR/SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD SEE SFC WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE N-NW AT 10-15 MPH. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED...BUT NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME WEAK SBCAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN HRS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER WITH VALLEY HIGHS AROUND 70.
WEAK RIDGE BY DEFAULT ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. IT APPEARS A WINDOW OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE.
SATURATED GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS LOOK IDEAL FOR
NOCTURNAL FOG AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE GRIDS 04-12Z THURSDAY.
THURSDAY FEATURES A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING RAPIDLY FROM THE UPR OHIO RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE NJ COAST AROUND 00Z FRIDAY PER GFS SOLN.
SFC LOW DEEPENS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 00Z GFS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ON LOW TRACK EWD ACROSS PA THAN IS THE 00Z NAM. AT 60-HRS
OUT...GENERALLY PREFER THE GFS HERE. THIS TAKES THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST LIGHT
RAIN MOST SECTIONS THURSDAY AFTN. 3" QPF MAX ACROSS E-CENTRAL NY
INTO FAR SRN VT IN GFS SOLN...WITH AROUND 1-1.25" ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH IN TERMS OF FORECAST RAINFALL...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS/QPF ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT DURING 18Z THU THRU 00Z
FRI TIME FRAME...WITH LOWER POPS/LOWER QPF NWD ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS
AROUND 70 IN THE NRN VALLEYS...MID-UPR 60S DEPENDING ON PCPN TIMING
FOR S-CENTRAL VT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR DRY WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC/OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AT THE SFC WITH UPPER LEVEL HTS INCREASING AS WELL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE BERMUDA AREA
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND PROGRESS EAST. UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE THE BROAD TROUGH WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH...LEADING TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WKND...BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
LOW 40S TO MID 50S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITHIN PERIODS OF RAIN. MVFR VSBYS AT KMPV/KRUT AND
KMSS WILL SEE PSBL IFR WITHIN SHOWERS WITH CONTINUED LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE CPV HAS ALLOWED KPBG AND
KBTV TO REMAIN VFR. WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE...VSYBYS MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR. RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY DURING THE DAY WITH CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS OF
MVFR AT RUT/MPV/SLK...MVFR/IFR AT MSS/PBG. BTV MAY REMAIN VFR IN
SOME DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF REGION.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
LIMITED TO FIELD/LOW-LAND AND POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.25" TO 2" ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE ACROSS NERN NY ACROSS FAR NRN VT. HOWEVER...SOILS ARE
SATURATED AREAWIDE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT PONDING OF WATER
IN POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAINFALL WILL BE STEADY AND GENERALLY OF MODERATE INTENSITY. THE
ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL HELP
PRECLUDE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND SHOULD AVOID ANY OF THE
MAIN-STEM RIVERS REACHING FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NEEDED
AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE MINOR HYDRO ISSUES VIA
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1045 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PREVAIL INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A VERY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS REMAIN AROUND 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S THIS MORNING...BUT WITH MIXING EXPECT THEM TO DROP INTO
THE 60S DURING THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
CAPPED AIR-MASS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE
CONVECTION...THUS HAVE KEPT POPS <20 ALL AREAS. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WEAKEN SOME DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FROM BECOMING PINNED TO THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OFF THE
EAST COAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH WED.
AT THE SURFACE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
INLAND CAROLINAS. OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP W-NW FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A FEW MINOR PERTURBATIONS RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WED INTO EARLY THURS.
WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALIZED CU DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
BY THURS THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL AID IN A DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE STRONG
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL ALSO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE THE BEST CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE ALIGNED MORE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
THURS EVENING. RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY RAIN FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HIGHER KEEPING AN
OVERALL HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY WARM TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 90S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO 100 WED AFTN
AND POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS INLAND NORTH
CAROLINA AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURS AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF COAST ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURS WILL
BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AFTN. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH DEWPOINT
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO 60 ON FRI WILL REBOUND BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY AND OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE H5 RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT
AND A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
INTRODUCE LOW END POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S MOST
PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DEEP MOISTURE TRYING TO EXIT THE COAST...WITH CONVECTION
ADVECTING ACROSS BALD HEAD ISLAND. POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. LOOK FOR VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
ADVERTISING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH. WILL REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO WITH THE NEXT
MODEL RUN. FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY...GUSTING
NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS AND THIS IS LINE WITH THE CURRENT THINKING THAT THE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE CAN BE DROPPED AT NOON. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BACK
TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 3-5 FT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...W-SW WINDS DOWN AROUND 10 KTS WED MORNING
WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
LATE THURS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED INTO THURS AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FIRST DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND THEN DUE TO APPROACH OF COLD FRONT BY LATE THURS.
EXPECT SW WINDS BACK UP TO A SOLID 15 KTS BY THURS AFTN WITH SEAS
UP AROUND 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND PEAKING JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THURS EVENING AROUND 6 FT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LAST FROM THURS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTH AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
LATE FRI AND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES EAST LEAVING
A WEAK TROUGH INLAND AND A VERY WARM AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS PROBABLE GIVEN
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALOFT. I WILL STILL LEAVE A 20 POP
GOING FOR NOW. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM
FOLLOWS...
AN ILL-DEFINED FRONT STILL HUNG UP IN THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL SLIDE EAST AND INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S TOUGH TO CALL THIS A COLD FRONT AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OUR AIRMASS IS
QUITE A BIT DRIER (ESPECIALLY ALOFT) AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HAVE FALLEN FROM 2.0 INCHES TO ONLY 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NC/VA COAST AROUND
DAYBREAK. NVA BEHIND THIS TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
AND MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB RISING BY 3-4 DEGREES C
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TODAY. EVEN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO
88-92 THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRODUCE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND ONLY A
SMATTERING OF CONVECTION. MY FORECAST IS FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OFF THE
EAST COAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH WED.
AT THE SURFACE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
INLAND CAROLINAS. OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP W-NW FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A FEW MINOR PERTURBATIONS RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WED INTO EARLY THURS.
WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALIZED CU DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
BY THURS THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL AID IN A DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE STRONG
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL ALSO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE THE BEST CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE ALIGNED MORE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
THURS EVENING. RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY RAIN FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HIGHER KEEPING AN
OVERALL HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY WARM TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 90S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO 100 WED AFTN
AND POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS INLAND NORTH
CAROLINA AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURS AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF COAST ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURS WILL
BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AFTN. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH DEWPOINT
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO 60 ON FRI WILL REBOUND BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY AND OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE H5 RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT
AND A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
INTRODUCE LOW END POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S MOST
PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DEEP MOISTURE TRYING TO EXIT THE COAST...WITH CONVECTION
ADVECTING ACROSS BALD HEAD ISLAND. POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. LOOK FOR VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
ADVERTISING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH. WILL REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO WITH THE NEXT
MODEL RUN. FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY...GUSTING
NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING APPEAR TO BE TOPPING OUT AROUND 20
KNOTS. WE ARE PROBABLY NEAR THE PEAK IN WIND SPEEDS...AND AFTER
PLATEAUING NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A LOCAL INCREASE IN WINDS NEARSHORE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. GIVEN LIMITED RESPONSE IN SEA HEIGHTS THUS FAR I
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND REPLACED IT WITH AN
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 5
FOOT SEAS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...W-SW WINDS DOWN AROUND 10 KTS WED MORNING
WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
LATE THURS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED INTO THURS AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FIRST DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND THEN DUE TO APPROACH OF COLD FRONT BY LATE THURS.
EXPECT SW WINDS BACK UP TO A SOLID 15 KTS BY THURS AFTN WITH SEAS
UP AROUND 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND PEAKING JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THURS EVENING AROUND 6 FT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LAST FROM THURS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTH AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
LATE FRI AND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1141 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MORE POTENT STORM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE A WEAK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS CROSSING THE
REGION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING IN ITS WAKE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
JUST A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
MIDDAY HOURS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SCENT AND SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST FOR THE SMALL POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
ABOUT MIDDAY ONWARD. THIS IS WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE IS AT THIS
TIME AND WHERE THE RAP SHOWS CAPES REBOUNDING UNDER THE
INSOLATION. SREF SHOWS SOME MODEST CAPE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SOME MODERATE SHEAR. SHOULD ANY STORMS MANAGE TO
FIRE...THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR SOME DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.
OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND 12C...OFF THE LATEST SREF AND
GEFS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL BECOME
CENTERED RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S TO
LOWER 60S.
SFC WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE HEADS OUR WAY FROM THE MIDWEST. INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE AXIS OF
POTENT...SWRLY LLVL WINDS /AND NOSE OF MUCH HIGHER PWATS/ PUSHES NE
AND OVER THIS DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WORTH NOTING IS THAT SPC HAS NEARLY THE WESTERN HALF OF PENN
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR DAY 3 /SPECIFICALLY LATER
WED AND WED NIGHT/.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG WSWRLY LLJ /AND
SUB-1000MB SFC LOW/ WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER.
LATEST...00Z/03Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
ARE CONVERGING ON A SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. DEEP UVVEL BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT
BRANCH OF AN UPPER JET LOCATED ACROSS NEW YORK AND SRN NEW ENGLAND
WILL AID IN STRONG ASCENT OF THE HIGH PWAT AIR /1.5-2 INCHES/ OVER
THE NEARLY EAST/WEST QUASI STNRY OR SFC WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1 INCH OR GRATER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. 12-24 SREF PROB FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER
RAINFALL IS 60 AND 90 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2
TO 2/3RDS OF PENN.
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR /NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PENN TURNPIKE/... SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL DEVELOP WITH MUCAPES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOST ANOMALOUS
/PLUS 3 SIGMA/ WSW 850 MB FLOW.
A RIBBON OF MDTLY HIGH...0-1KM EHI OF AROUND 2M2/S2 MAY DEVELOP NEAR
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO POSE A
THREAT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS FROM THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HATCHES IN ONLY OUR
FAR SERN COUNTIES IN THEIR DAY 3 SVR OUTLOOK...BUT SEE NO REASON AT
THIS POINT NOT TO PAINT THE CHC FOR SOME STRONG-SVR STORMS A FEW
LAYER OF COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
THE NORTH-SOUTH SFC TEMP GRADIENT MAY TURN OUT TO BE SHARPER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN OUR GRIDDED DATABASE...ESPECIALLY IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS FORM ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND THE NORTH STAYS RAINY
FOR THE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CURRENT 13F SPREAD
COULD STRETCH TO 16-18F IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO MATERIALIZES.
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING CFRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER SUSQ REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
MAINTAINING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW LINGERING TSRA IN
THE 22Z THU- 04Z FRI TIMEFRAME NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF A KAVP...TO
KSEG AND KTHV LINE.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A GUSTY NW
BREEZE DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING FROM THE 50S TO 40S. NOT A LOT OF
SFC CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...SO ITS HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS GOING ON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S /ABOUT 3-5F
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS/ WILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.
FOR NOW...EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE MAINLY DRY.
SOME CHC OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY...AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SE.
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT REAL
DRY...HOT SPELLS ON TAP...AS WAS THE CASE THE OTHER WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN PA AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL
BRING SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE
TO DEAL WITH RESTRICTIONS AT MOST SITES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
16-19Z TIME FRAME.
WNW WINDS WILL GUST 15-25 MPH THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALL SITES
WILL BE VFR TONIGHT INTO WED...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN FOG
AROUND SUNRISE WED.
LOW PRESSURE WILL RETURN WED NIGHT...LEADING TO DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS IN ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH TSTMS POSS...ESP WEST.
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPANDING TO ALL BUT SE.
THU...RAIN. SCT TSTMS NORTH...TSTMS LIKELY SOUTH. RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE ALL AREAS.
FRI...CHANCE OF A SHOWER. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MORE POTENT STORM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE A WEAK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS CROSSING THE
REGION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING IN ITS WAKE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
JUST A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
MIDDAY HOURS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SCENT AND SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST FOR THE SMALL POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
ABOUT MIDDAY ONWARD. THIS IS WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE IS AT THIS
TIME AND WHERE THE RAP SHOWS CAPES REBOUNDING UNDER THE
INSOLATION. SREF SHOWS SOME MODEST CAPE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SOME MODERATE SHEAR. SHOULD ANY STORMS MANAGE TO
FIRE...THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR SOME DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.
OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND 12C...OFF THE LATEST SREF AND
GEFS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL BECOME
CENTERED RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S TO
LOWER 60S.
SFC WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE HEADS OUR WAY FROM THE MIDWEST. INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE AXIS OF
POTENT...SWRLY LLVL WINDS /AND NOSE OF MUCH HIGHER PWATS/ PUSHES NE
AND OVER THIS DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WORTH NOTING IS THAT SPC HAS NEARLY THE WESTERN HALF OF PENN
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR DAY 3 /SPECIFICALLY LATER
WED AND WED NIGHT/.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG WSWRLY LLJ /AND
SUB-1000MB SFC LOW/ WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER.
LATEST...00Z/03Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
ARE CONVERGING ON A SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. DEEP UVVEL BENEATH THE THERMALLY DIRECT
BRANCH OF AN UPPER JET LOCATED ACROSS NEW YORK AND SRN NEW ENGLAND
WILL AID IN STRONG ASCENT OF THE HIGH PWAT AIR /1.5-2 INCHES/ OVER
THE NEARLY EAST/WEST QUASI STNRY OR SFC WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1 INCH OR GRATER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. 12-24 SREF PROB FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER
RAINFALL IS 60 AND 90 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2
TO 2/3RDS OF PENN.
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR /NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PENN TURNPIKE/... SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL DEVELOP WITH MUCAPES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOST ANOMALOUS
/PLUS 3 SIGMA/ WSW 850 MB FLOW.
A RIBBON OF MDTLY HIGH...0-1KM EHI OF AROUND 2M2/S2 MAY DEVELOP NEAR
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO POSE A
THREAT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS FROM THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HATCHES IN ONLY OUR
FAR SERN COUNTIES IN THEIR DAY 3 SVR OUTLOOK...BUT SEE NO REASON AT
THIS POINT NOT TO PAINT THE CHC FOR SOME STRONG-SVR STORMS A FEW
LAYER OF COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
THE NORTH-SOUTH SFC TEMP GRADIENT MAY TURN OUT TO BE SHARPER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN OUR GRIDDED DATABASE...ESPECIALLY IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS FORM ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND THE NORTH STAYS RAINY
FOR THE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CURRENT 13F SPREAD
COULD STRETCH TO 16-18F IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO MATERIALIZES.
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING CFRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER SUSQ REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
MAINTAINING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW LINGERING TSRA IN
THE 22Z THU- 04Z FRI TIMEFRAME NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF A KAVP...TO
KSEG AND KTHV LINE.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A GUSTY NW
BREEZE DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING FROM THE 50S TO 40S. NOT A LOT OF
SFC CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...SO ITS HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS GOING ON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S /ABOUT 3-5F
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS/ WILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS.
FOR NOW...EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE MAINLY DRY.
SOME CHC OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY...AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SE.
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT REAL
DRY...HOT SPELLS ON TAP...AS WAS THE CASE THE OTHER WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM THE WEST THIS MID MORNING AS UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA. ALONG WITH A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD OF LOWERING CLOUDS...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH. THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT IN THE
SE...IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE WILL BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH ALL
AREAS REACHING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS DO PICK UP BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND WINDS COULD
GUST TO 15-25 MPH.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS /EXCEPT LOCAL REDUCTIONS FOR FOG
AROUND SUNRISE WED/. LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS WED
NIGHT...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN ANOTHER SOAKING
RAIN ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS SW WITH
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSS.
WED NIGHT...RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH TSTMS POSS...ESP WEST.
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPANDING TO ALL BUT SE.
THU...RAIN. SCT TSTMS NORTH / TSTMS LIKELY SOUTH. RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE ALL AREAS.
FRI...CHANCE OF A SHOWER. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
SAT...NO SIG WX. VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1037 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CONVECTION GOING AS SEEN BY RADAR AND LOOK
OUT THE WINDOW...WITH CU FIELD WEAK TO MODERATE AND MID CLOUDS
COMING IN. SOME WEAK ECHOES ON THE RADAR SUGGEST BRIEF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT IS
ABOUT IT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY HRRR 4 KM MODEL...IS
STILL GOING WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER INLAND SECTIONS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS BUT KEPT 30/40 POPS FARTHER WEST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST GOING ALTHOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WESTERN AREAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO DO
ANOTHER UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES (AND POSSIBLY POPS) EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IF EITHER TEMP FORECAST DOES NOT PAN OUT (WEST TOO WARM
OR NORTHEAST TOO COOL)...AS WELL AS IF WESTERN POPS ARE TOO HIGH.
WINDS/CLOUDS LOOK OK.
&&
.MARINE...WITH MODELS SHOWING BEST FOCUS FARTHER WEST (INLAND)
LATER TODAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO ISOLATED OVER THE GULF WATERS.
OTHERWISE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME MARINE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CONVECTION MAINLY
OCCURRING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ATTM...BUT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL TSRA RIGHT NOW...AND HAVE RETAINED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST TODAY AS
THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. MOSTLY ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. DEEP
MOISTURE LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWED PW
VALUE OF 2.25 INCHES. MODELS PROG THIS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS...WITH PW VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE EAST TODAY OVER TEXAS...UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH RIDGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TAKE THIS
FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING SOUTH TEXAS IN FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONVECTION HAS ALL
READY DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND PUSH INLAND. WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS WESTWARD ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER 00Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. GFS/NAM DISAGREE
WRT TO CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP LOW END
POPS AS SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/STORMS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WITH
FORECAST IS THE PROGRESSION OF INVERTED TROUGH/UPPER LOW AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. GFS CONTINUES TO PULL LOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN
ECMWF...AND THEREFORE CUTS OF PRECIP CHANCES MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN
ECMWF. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS...SO MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO
FORECAST ON THURSDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A LINGERING CHANCE
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS GFS HOLDS TO
DRIER SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES IN NEXT UPDATE THOUGH AS THE LOW PROGRESSES. THROUGH
THE PERIOD LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. FAIRLY
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SEASONAL HUMIDITIES AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND DURING THE AFTERNOONS LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 77 94 80 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 92 74 92 76 93 / 30 10 20 10 10
LAREDO 97 78 98 76 99 / 40 30 20 10 20
ALICE 95 74 95 76 97 / 30 20 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 90 78 90 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 10
COTULLA 95 74 96 76 97 / 40 30 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 95 76 94 79 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 89 79 90 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST MAY IMPACT OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH MORE RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FA AND MOVING EASTWARD...AND ACCORDING TO OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...THEY SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF ALBANY...AS MODELS
SHOWING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AROUND 400-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE
DEVELOPING. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW
BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THIS IS WHERE
THERE WILL BE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING THUNDER TODAY.
DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS ANY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE PONDING OR
MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. FLOOD WATCH FOR
BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE STEADY RAIN
HAS ENDED AND FORECASTS HAVE ALL RIVER POINTS REMAINING WITHIN
THEIR BANKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN AGAIN BY CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
60S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE
AGAIN A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG BACK INTO
EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. THE THREAT FOR DOWNPOURS/THUNDER WILL
DIMINISH...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BREEZE REMAINING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECTING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...AS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM INTO
THE 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A WET DAY FOR THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SETUP LOOKS MORE LIKE A COOL-SEASON
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS OUR AREA WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
DEEPENING CYCLONE. STRONG F-GEN AND QG FORCING COULD RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL. TIMING...EXACT TRACK AND
POSITION...AS WELL AS QPF ARE HIGHLY IN QUESTION THOUGH DUE TO THE
CHAOTIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. STILL...THE MODEL TRENDS
CANNOT BE IGNORED AND WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY. WILL
START MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO DUE TO ALREADY
HIGH RIVER LEVELS AND SATURATED GROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE SYSTEM EXITS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A SLIGHT BIT MORE STEEP THAN
USUAL AS WELL. ACKNOWLEDGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY...ENDING BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLER IN THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH POTENTIALLY QUITE A BIT OF SUN. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GET CLEARER WITH
TIME. FOR NOW...INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND ON MONDAY MUCH OF THE
SAME...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS USUAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
A LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
FLYING CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY MVFR/IFR
CURRENTLY FOR LOW STRATUS AND MIST...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY THE LATE AFTN...THE THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE GONE /EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE A
SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT. ALSO...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE WEST AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING WHICH SHOULD HELP RAISE CIGS...ESP FOR
KALB/KPOU. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THESE SITES DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF MAY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME STUBBORN
LOW CIGS...BUT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY...ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT-
BKN STRATOCU AR 3500-5000 FT. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS...WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
WED PM...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU...MVFR/IFR. -RA LIKELY.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR QUITE A WHILE...AS WE
ARE IN THE MIDST OF A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THEN A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STEADIER RAIN IN THE PROCESS OF TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY LIGHT INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HOUSATONIC AND EASTERN CATSKILL BASINS...WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING MAIN STEM RIVERS TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THEREFORE
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES.
DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS LOCALIZED MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DOWNPOURS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS RIVER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO DRY OUT BEFORE THEN.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1225 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST MAY IMPACT OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH MORE RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FA AND MOVING EASTWARD...AND ACCORDING TO OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...THEY SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF ALBANY...AS MODELS
SHOWING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AROUND 400-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE
DEVELOPING. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW
BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND THIS IS WHERE
THERE WILL BE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING THUNDER TODAY.
DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS ANY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE PONDING OR
MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. FLOOD WATCH FOR
BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE STEADY RAIN
HAS ENDED AND FORECASTS HAVE ALL RIVER POINTS REMAINING WITHIN
THEIR BANKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN AGAIN BY CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
60S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE
AGAIN A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG BACK INTO
EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. THE THREAT FOR DOWNPOURS/THUNDER WILL
DIMINISH...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A PERSISTENT BREEZE REMAINING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECTING GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...AS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND TO THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM INTO
THE 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A WET DAY FOR THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SETUP LOOKS MORE LIKE A COOL-SEASON
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS OUR AREA WOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
DEEPENING CYCLONE. STRONG F-GEN AND QG FORCING COULD RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL. TIMING...EXACT TRACK AND
POSITION...AS WELL AS QPF ARE HIGHLY IN QUESTION THOUGH DUE TO THE
CHAOTIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. STILL...THE MODEL TRENDS
CANNOT BE IGNORED AND WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY. WILL
START MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO DUE TO ALREADY
HIGH RIVER LEVELS AND SATURATED GROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE SYSTEM EXITS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A SLIGHT BIT MORE STEEP THAN
USUAL AS WELL. ACKNOWLEDGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY...ENDING BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLER IN THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH POTENTIALLY QUITE A BIT OF SUN. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GET CLEARER WITH
TIME. FOR NOW...INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND ON MONDAY MUCH OF THE
SAME...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS USUAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. A STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD IS LIFTING NORTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM KALB/KPSF/KPOU. SOME
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KGFL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS
ARE VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT THE SITES. THE TREND WILL BE
FOR CONTINUED CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z-15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR AS THE
LOWER CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVES OUT AND DECREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS MAY RISE BACK TO
MVFR/LOW VFR LEVELS...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE SYSTEM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUNDER HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE
TERMINALS YET...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED WITH LATER TAF
ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE SITES BY 00Z-02Z BUT VCSH INCLUDED AT KGFL...KALB
AND KPSF THROUGH 06Z SINCE GUIDANCE NOT CLEAR ON EXACT TIMING OF
THE EXIT OF THE RAIN. AFTER 06Z...LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. KGFL
AND KPSF COULD TREND TOWARD IFR AFTER 06Z...WHILE KALB AND KPOU
SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE MVFR RANGE.
THE SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT TO CALM VALUES TO E/SE WINDS AT
5-10 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR AROUND 10 KT
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU...MVFR/IFR. -RA LIKELY.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR QUITE A WHILE...AS WE
ARE IN THE MIDST OF A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THEN A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STEADIER RAIN IN THE PROCESS OF TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY LIGHT INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HOUSATONIC AND EASTERN CATSKILL BASINS...WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING MAIN STEM RIVERS TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THEREFORE
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES.
DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS LOCALIZED MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DOWNPOURS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS RIVER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO DRY OUT BEFORE THEN.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PA ATTM. A BAND
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PA AND
ACROSS OUR AREA (MOSTLY NRN 2/3RDS) THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE TRENDS WELL. THE POPS HAVE BEEN
HELD AT THE CHC LEVEL AS THE PREVIOUS FCST HAD THEM. OVERALL QPF
WILL NOT BE GREAT SINCE THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MODEST MOTION TO
THEM. QPF OF .10 OR .20 POSSIBLE.
I HAVE NOT CHANGED TEMP/DEW POINTS MUCH WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE SOUTH. COOLER ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE 70 TO 75. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SW AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD MAKE FOR A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING OUR REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
THURSDAY`S SYSTEM MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THAT TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THERE WED
NIGHT AND THEN A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG IT
THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER VERY WET
SCENARIO FOR THU/THU NIGHT, SO WE HAVE MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED FLOODING WITH RIVERS
AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH.
DECREASING POPS FOR FRI WITH ONLY A CHC FOR A SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU/FRI WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S (SOUTH) AND MID TO UPPER 50S (NORTH).
A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTLES ACROSS OUR AREA AND REMAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY. WE WILL WRITE A DRY FCST FOR NOW...AND HOLD OFF
THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A
BIT THIS WEEKEND AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO THE VFR CATEGORY DURING THE MORNING
AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THERE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PASS OVERHEAD AROUND
MIDDAY. IT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND THE TIMING IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT, NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THIS
EVENING...THE WIND SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND DIMINISH. WE
SHOULD LOSE THE WIND GUSTS TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING
IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME FOG.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THRU FRI...MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOSTLY VFR. FOG POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN AROUND 5 FEET THIS
MORNING. AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS, THE WAVE
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
UNTIL 500 PM. HOWEVER, WE WILL SHORTEN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE BY FOUR HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE, ENDING IT AT 100 PM.
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND BRING LOW-END
SCA WINDS/SEAS TO THE OCEAN AREAS LATER THU INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SCA
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER DEL BAY TOO.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY IS ON THE CUSP BETWEEN LOW AND
MODERATE. THE WIND SHOULD BE A LITTLE WEST OF SOUTH TODAY,
LIMITING THE RISK. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE OFF THE COAST. THE MARGINALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
MAY LEAD TO A MODERATE RISK IN SPOTS. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ERRED
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND WE HAVE ISSUED A MODERATE RISK FOR
TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL - JUNE
PHL 10.06 1938 AS OF 1 AM 6.79 RANKED 10TH
ILG 9.90 2003 AS OF 1 AM 7.13 RANKED 7TH
ACY 8.45 1920 AS OF 1 AM 4.07 NOT TOP 10
THURSDAY JUNE 13 DAILY RECORD RAINFALL
ACY 1.29 1953
PHL 2.21 1982
ILG 2.41 1982
ABE 2.93 1942
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...IOVINO/O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...213PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
151 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS BUT NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES MADE.
LATE THIS MORNING...LINGERING STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT AND
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. UPSTREAM SHOWERS OVER
THE UPSTATE AND MIDLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. TODAY...THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE
TAIL END OF UPSTREAM CHANNELED VORT ENERGY EXTENDING OUT OF THE
SHARP TROUGH THAT STRETCHES TO THE NORTH. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE 12Z CHS RAOB BEARS THIS OUT WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED PWAT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND NOTABLE
DRYING FROM 850 MB UP. WE WILL ALSO SEE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH CURRENTLY LINES UP WELL WITH THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT. WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON...HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE 3000-3500 J/KG
OF CAPE. IN FACT LOOKING AT RAP SOUNDINGS...THE NEAR STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MARKED BY HIGH DCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
1200-1400 J/KG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
REGION. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPPING EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE BY
MID AFTERNOON. SO THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED
AT BEST...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES. I HAVE
KEPT THE POP TREND BASICALLY THE SAME...OTHER THAN TO EXPAND THE
CHANCE POP REGION TO INCLUDE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. THE HWO MENTION
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS STILL ON TRACK...THOUGH I WILL ADD A
MENTION OF POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVENING CONVECTION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
MOVING INTO OR POSSIBLY THROUGH THE GEORGIA I-16 CORRIDOR. MODELS
ARE 50/50 ON WHETHER ANY CONVECTION MAKES IT TO THE ALTAMAHA BUT
IF IT DOES IT MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE UNTIL MID EVENING AND
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE TONIGHT...MAINLY
DRY WITH A VERY LOW END LINGERING RISK OF CONVECTION TO THE S OF
I-16 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY....CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND DRYER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS AS DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST BEHIND A FRONT SHIFTING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A DRY
DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
SO FAR THIS YEAR...WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LVL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS DEW POINTS REACH THE LOW/MID 70S WHILE
STRONG SFC AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING LEAD TO SFC TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE RECORD BREAKING TEMPS OF 95 DEGREES
AT BOTH CHS AND SAV AIRPORTS SHOULD CONVECTION OR CLOUD COVER HOLD
OFF UNTIL EVENING HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT AND H5
SHORTWAVE. SHOULD CONVECTION TRIGGER BEFORE NIGHTFALL...SBCAPES
BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR -6C...MID LVL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C...AND 25-30 KT LOW LVL FLOW SUGGESTS
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER SC ZONES AFTER SUNSET.
FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH GUIDANCE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTING OVERALL
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN QUIET OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE.
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER SATURDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN THIS
PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES ARE AT KCHS...WHERE A
VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME PERIOD. WILL AMEND BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AS NEEDED.
EXTENDED AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SW SURGING GENERALLY LESS THAN MODEL EXPECTATIONS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DISTURBING WIND FIELDS
BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AT BUOY 41004 NEARING DAYBREAK.
THROUGH TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL AVERAGE 15 KT WITH NOCTURNAL SURGING
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 3 TO 5 FT OFFSHORE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY THEN APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 2-5 FT...HIGHEST
OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DURING FROPA. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN IMPROVE
AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
RIP CURRENTS...WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THINGS INCLUDING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A WEAK
ASTRONOMICAL FACTOR.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. THE SHRA/TSRA IS HIGH BASED AND
OCCURRING ON TOP OF THE STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION WITH ASOS/AWOS/S
IN THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT SHOWING ANY CIGS AOB 12KFT.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THESE STORM IS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE HIGH BASES AND THE CAP AS WELL AS A FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 15KFT. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A WEAK
MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OVER NRN
MO AND SOUTHERN IA WHICH THE LATEST RAP RUNS SHOW WEAKENING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SO THE PRECIP THREAT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD
LESSEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
GOING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EVENT AN ISOLATED STORM CAN PUNCH THROUGH THE
CAP.
DLF
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST IS BRINGING AN ABRUPT TRANSITION TO AN
ACTIVE REGIME OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE REGION FOR TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND FORCING...AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE CAP IS NOTED ON THE
00Z UPPER ANALYSIS. 14 TO 18C AIR IS AT 700 MB ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOT FOR EVEN THE PEAK OF SUMMER. WHAT MIGHT BE AMAZING
WITHIN THIS NORMALLY EXTREME CAP...IS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE CONVECTION ALOFT
NORMALLY WOULD BE ASSUMED CAPPED...WITH AT LEAST 15C AT 700MB IN
THAT AREA. THIS BOOM OR BUST CAP WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CERTAIN ABOUT ONE THING...IT WILL BE SUNNY AND
CAPPED TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW A PERIOD OF
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE CAP...AND A SHORT
WAVE. LOOKING AT THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...THERE IS CONVECTION WITH
THIS WAVE IN NEBRASKA...INDICATED BY MESOMODELS...BUT NOT GLOBAL
MODELS. THUS...ONE CANNOT DISCARD THEM IN THIS CASE. ASSUMING WE
CAN BREAK THIS CAP TODAY...A WARM FRONT OVER OUR CENTRAL CWA WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAPABLE OF
ALLOWING THE AMPLE CAPE VALUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. AT
THIS POINT...I WOULD AGREE WITH SPC THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OF SEVERE LEVELS
SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. TODAY IS
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE AN CERTAIN FORECAST...AND DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS...I CAN ONLY JUSTIFY GOING 20 PERCENT
POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD
STORMS FORM...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND UPSCALE GROWTH WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS ALONG THE FRONT. ALL SAID...STAY TUNED TO THIS ONE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM...BUT WITH CIRRUS AND SOME
HIGH BASED STRATUS POSSIBLE TODAY...THE NORTH MAY BE HELD TO THE
LOWER 80S...WHILE THE SOUTH GETS FULLY INTO HEATING AND UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S SEEMS MORE ON TAP. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
94 TO 98 IN THE SOUTH 1/3...PRETTY AMAZING GIVEN OUR COOL SUMMER
THUS FAR.
TONIGHT...ITS COMPLICATED. ONGOING CELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING ALONG THE STALLED WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY YET BE CAPPED.
ANYWAY...IT APPEARS CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED BY LATE EVENING AS THE
LLJ GETS GOING OVER THE PLAINS...AND ALLOWS FOR SOME ELEVATED STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH HALF. THE MAIN SHOW...SHOULD BE FORMING OVER
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
SHOULD TRACK EAST...AND DEVELOP SOUTH AS THE LLJ CONVERGES AND
CAPPING WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THUS...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT...AND POPS ARE ONLY LIKELY VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WHEN CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SHOULD FORM
SOME CONVECTION EVEN ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD IT STILL
RULE THE ROOST THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A STICKY
HUMID...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...SUMMER IS HERE.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP
ACRS THE AREA AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
DIGS EASTWARD ACRS IA ALONG NORTHERN FRINGE OF A HIGH CAPE/
POTENTIALLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHAT
BLEEDS OUT OF TUE NIGHT AND LINGERS ACRS THE CWA WED MORNING IN THE
FORM OF AN ONGOING MCS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS...BUT CURRENT SIGNALS
ARE THAT THIS WILL DECAY AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR
DESTABILIZATION-AIR MASS RELOADING. IF SFC TEMPS CAN RECOVER INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 70 DPTS...RESULTANT 2500-3500 J/KG
SBCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE PLENTY FOR EXPECTED BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 50-60 KTS IN VIEW OF APPROACHING SFC LOW AND ATTACHED WARM
FRONT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MANY 00Z MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY SOME LK MI FETCH FROM
THE NORTHEAST MAY LAY OUT ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY WED
AFTERNOON...AND BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SUPER-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. IF
WE GET THE ABOVE MENTIONED CAPES AS THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST
APPROACHES...ALL VARIETIES OF SVR WX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE
DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING SUPERCELLS. THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR RIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CWA AGAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 AFTER 20Z WED. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY THEN EVOLVE
INTO A LARGE BOW ECHO OR A COUPLE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF IL LATE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TAKING OVER AS THE
MAIN WIDESPREAD THREAT. CURRENTLY PROGGED THTA-E LAPSE RATES AND
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT 70-85+ MPH WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACRS THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN DVN CWA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF IL WED EVENING. AGREE WITH
ASSESSMENT THAT ONGOING SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS IF ALL THESE LOOMING PARAMETERS
STILL SEEM WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD. HIGH TEMPS A SECONDARY CONCERN
AND A CHALLENGE WITH BOUNDARIES...MORNING DEBRIS AND AFTERNOON
RECOVERY SCENARIOS BUT MAY PLAY ON THE WARMER SIDE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I80. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA AFTER 03Z THU.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LATEST RUN 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTION STILL
ADVERTISE A SFC HIGH DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THIS
PERIOD WHILE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACRS THE PLAINS/MO RVR VALLEY IN
THE WAKE OF THE DIGGING GRT LKS TROF. THU DRY...LESS HUMID AND A
BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. SFC HIGH SHIFTS ACRS
THE WESTERN GRT LKS FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PERIOD ON FRI...BUT
THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO GET PUMMELED/BROADENED AGAIN BY
WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS ANOTHER
RIDGE-RIDING MCS MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACRS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
MO RVR VALLEY...POSSIBLY SPILLING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ELEVATED
STYLE LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A FLATTENING FLOW
PATTERN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT INTO SUNDAY. THE SAT MORNING MCS
MAY DECAY WITH OUTFLOW AND BOUNDARIES SETTLING TO THE SOUTH...ACTING
AS A FOCAL POINT FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT. HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THIS OCCUR STILL VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...
WITH THE NEW ECMWF SUGGESTING THE BULK OF IT OCCURRING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. THE 00Z GFS...GEM AND UKMET SUGGEST A SAT NIGHT
MCS TO DEVELOP RIGHT ACRS IA AND EFFECT MOST THE DVN CWA WITH MORE
SVR WEATHER AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL KEEP CHC POPS RIDING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MAIN BOUNDARY/STORM TRACK
SETTLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL AT QUESTION...BUT NOW THE GFS
WANTS TO MIGRATE THINGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH BACKDOOR STYLE
SFC HIGHS DOWN THE WESTERN GRT LKS MON INTO TUE...SIMILAR TO OLDER
ECMWF RUNS. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN IL BY LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER AN ELEVATED LAYER OF VERY WARM AIR WILL ACT TO
SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT SO NO MENTION OF TSRA WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN LATE TONIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BLEED INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING A VCTS WAS INCLUDED IN THE KCID/KDBQ FORECAST.
REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. THE SHRA/TSRA IS HIGH BASED AND
OCCURRING ON TOP OF THE STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION WITH ASOS/AWOS/S
IN THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT SHOWING ANY CIGS AOB 12KFT.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THESE STORM IS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE HIGH BASES AND THE CAP AS WELL AS A FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 15KFT. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A WEAK
MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OVER NRN
MO AND SOUTHERN IA WHICH THE LATEST RAP RUNS SHOW WEAKENING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SO THE PRECIP THREAT OVER THE SOUTH SHOULD
LESSEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
GOING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EVENT AN ISOLATED STORM CAN PUNCH THROUGH THE
CAP.
DLF
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST IS BRINGING AN ABRUPT TRANSITION TO AN
ACTIVE REGIME OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE REGION FOR TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND FORCING...AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE CAP IS NOTED ON THE
00Z UPPER ANALYSIS. 14 TO 18C AIR IS AT 700 MB ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOT FOR EVEN THE PEAK OF SUMMER. WHAT MIGHT BE AMAZING
WITHIN THIS NORMALLY EXTREME CAP...IS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE CONVECTION ALOFT
NORMALLY WOULD BE ASSUMED CAPPED...WITH AT LEAST 15C AT 700MB IN
THAT AREA. THIS BOOM OR BUST CAP WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CERTAIN ABOUT ONE THING...IT WILL BE SUNNY AND
CAPPED TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW A PERIOD OF
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE CAP...AND A SHORT
WAVE. LOOKING AT THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...THERE IS CONVECTION WITH
THIS WAVE IN NEBRASKA...INDICATED BY MESOMODELS...BUT NOT GLOBAL
MODELS. THUS...ONE CANNOT DISCARD THEM IN THIS CASE. ASSUMING WE
CAN BREAK THIS CAP TODAY...A WARM FRONT OVER OUR CENTRAL CWA WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAPABLE OF
ALLOWING THE AMPLE CAPE VALUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. AT
THIS POINT...I WOULD AGREE WITH SPC THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OF SEVERE LEVELS
SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. TODAY IS
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE AN CERTAIN FORECAST...AND DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS...I CAN ONLY JUSTIFY GOING 20 PERCENT
POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD
STORMS FORM...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND UPSCALE GROWTH WOULD WARRANT
HIGHER POPS ALONG THE FRONT. ALL SAID...STAY TUNED TO THIS ONE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM...BUT WITH CIRRUS AND SOME
HIGH BASED STRATUS POSSIBLE TODAY...THE NORTH MAY BE HELD TO THE
LOWER 80S...WHILE THE SOUTH GETS FULLY INTO HEATING AND UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S SEEMS MORE ON TAP. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
94 TO 98 IN THE SOUTH 1/3...PRETTY AMAZING GIVEN OUR COOL SUMMER
THUS FAR.
TONIGHT...ITS COMPLICATED. ONGOING CELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING ALONG THE STALLED WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY YET BE CAPPED.
ANYWAY...IT APPEARS CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED BY LATE EVENING AS THE
LLJ GETS GOING OVER THE PLAINS...AND ALLOWS FOR SOME ELEVATED STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH HALF. THE MAIN SHOW...SHOULD BE FORMING OVER
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
SHOULD TRACK EAST...AND DEVELOP SOUTH AS THE LLJ CONVERGES AND
CAPPING WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. THUS...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT...AND POPS ARE ONLY LIKELY VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WHEN CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SHOULD FORM
SOME CONVECTION EVEN ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD IT STILL
RULE THE ROOST THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A STICKY
HUMID...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...SUMMER IS HERE.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP
ACRS THE AREA AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
DIGS EASTWARD ACRS IA ALONG NORTHERN FRINGE OF A HIGH CAPE/
POTENTIALLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHAT
BLEEDS OUT OF TUE NIGHT AND LINGERS ACRS THE CWA WED MORNING IN THE
FORM OF AN ONGOING MCS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS...BUT CURRENT SIGNALS
ARE THAT THIS WILL DECAY AND ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME FOR
DESTABILIZATION-AIR MASS RELOADING. IF SFC TEMPS CAN RECOVER INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 70 DPTS...RESULTANT 2500-3500 J/KG
SBCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE PLENTY FOR EXPECTED BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 50-60 KTS IN VIEW OF APPROACHING SFC LOW AND ATTACHED WARM
FRONT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MANY 00Z MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY SOME LK MI FETCH FROM
THE NORTHEAST MAY LAY OUT ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY WED
AFTERNOON...AND BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SUPER-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. IF
WE GET THE ABOVE MENTIONED CAPES AS THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST
APPROACHES...ALL VARIETIES OF SVR WX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE
DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING SUPERCELLS. THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR RIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CWA AGAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 AFTER 20Z WED. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY THEN EVOLVE
INTO A LARGE BOW ECHO OR A COUPLE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF IL LATE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TAKING OVER AS THE
MAIN WIDESPREAD THREAT. CURRENTLY PROGGED THTA-E LAPSE RATES AND
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT 70-85+ MPH WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACRS THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN DVN CWA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF IL WED EVENING. AGREE WITH
ASSESSMENT THAT ONGOING SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS IF ALL THESE LOOMING PARAMETERS
STILL SEEM WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD. HIGH TEMPS A SECONDARY CONCERN
AND A CHALLENGE WITH BOUNDARIES...MORNING DEBRIS AND AFTERNOON
RECOVERY SCENARIOS BUT MAY PLAY ON THE WARMER SIDE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I80. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA AFTER 03Z THU.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LATEST RUN 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTION STILL
ADVERTISE A SFC HIGH DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THIS
PERIOD WHILE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACRS THE PLAINS/MO RVR VALLEY IN
THE WAKE OF THE DIGGING GRT LKS TROF. THU DRY...LESS HUMID AND A
BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. SFC HIGH SHIFTS ACRS
THE WESTERN GRT LKS FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PERIOD ON FRI...BUT
THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO GET PUMMELED/BROADENED AGAIN BY
WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS ANOTHER
RIDGE-RIDING MCS MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACRS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
MO RVR VALLEY...POSSIBLY SPILLING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ELEVATED
STYLE LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A FLATTENING FLOW
PATTERN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT INTO SUNDAY. THE SAT MORNING MCS
MAY DECAY WITH OUTFLOW AND BOUNDARIES SETTLING TO THE SOUTH...ACTING
AS A FOCAL POINT FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT. HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THIS OCCUR STILL VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...
WITH THE NEW ECMWF SUGGESTING THE BULK OF IT OCCURRING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. THE 00Z GFS...GEM AND UKMET SUGGEST A SAT NIGHT
MCS TO DEVELOP RIGHT ACRS IA AND EFFECT MOST THE DVN CWA WITH MORE
SVR WEATHER AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL KEEP CHC POPS RIDING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MAIN BOUNDARY/STORM TRACK
SETTLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL AT QUESTION...BUT NOW THE GFS
WANTS TO MIGRATE THINGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH BACKDOOR STYLE
SFC HIGHS DOWN THE WESTERN GRT LKS MON INTO TUE...SIMILAR TO OLDER
ECMWF RUNS. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WHILE CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE GENERALLY FORECAST
VFR...THERE WILL BE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
BEGINNING TOWARD 18Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SINCE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR A PROB30 OR TEMPO
GROUP AT THIS TIME...THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST TODAY AROUND 7 TO 9 KTS...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF NEARLY CALM WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD FROM 12-15Z TODAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE
RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES.
THE RUC AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WINDS FOR
TODAY...WITH RUC DOING THE BEST. AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT USING THESE MODELS. THE NEW DATA SUGGESTED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONTACTED THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR BOTH
COUNTIES WHO AGREED WITH THE ENHANCED FIRE RISK SO HAVE EXPANDED THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE COUNTIES.
ALSO ALTERED THE PRECIP. GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA HAS NO MIXED 1KM CAPE DUE TO THE VERY
LOW DEW POINTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE...SO WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
DRY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN. A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THE HIGHER DEW POINTS ALLOW THE 1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE TO INCREASE SO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DOWN BURST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TOWARD
MIDNIGHT THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE AREA.
ON A SIDE NOT...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MEET/EXCEED RECORDS
AND MAY ALSO MET/EXCEED ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR TODAY:
LOCATION YEAR RECORD
GOODLAND 2001 100
MCCOOK 1918 106
BURLINGTON 1918 102
HILL CITY 1953 106
COLBY 1918 104
TRIBUNE 2010 102
YUMA 1956 100
HERE IS A LIST OF ALL TIME RECORDS:
LOCATION YEAR RECORD
GOODLAND 1940 111
MCCOOK 2012 115
BURLINGTON 1990 107
HILL CITY 1936 117
YUMA 2012 111
TRIBUNE 2012 111
COLBY 2012 113
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND TROUGH/DRY LINE SOUTH...RESULTING IN
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE FORECAST AREA AND ENHANCED
DOWN SLOPE WARMING. END RESULT WILL BE RECORD BREAKING HEAT AND
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MONTHLY OR EVEN ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS AROUND 110...BUT WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITY HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE UP THE RIDGE OUT OF
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST
BY 12Z. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER RELATIVELY SPEAKING...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SQUELCH ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RETURN FLOW GETS
UNDER WAY AT THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENS COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WITH MUCH BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE EAST BUT BEST LIFT WILL BE IN THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE JUN 11
2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND PLACING OUR AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND BECOMES DOMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TIMING/COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
COOL OUTFLOW WHICH COULD HAVE A RATHER WIDESPREAD IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN GREATEST COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT AS ANOMALOUS AS HAS OCCURRED EARLY THIS WEEK. MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED INITIAL GRIDS BY SMOOTHING POP FIELDS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
WIND DIRECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH SITES. AS THE DRY LINE
MOVES THROUGH KGLD WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT KMCK A
SURFACE LOW WILL WOBBLE NEAR THE SITE THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING THE
WINDS TO BE VARIABLE. TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY...BUT IF A STORM
DOES MOVE OVER A TAF SITE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
654 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT THEN EXIT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 1900L: PRECIP SPREADING INTO FAR NRN AREAS ATTM SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE OVRNGT HRS.
PREV DISC: MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE QPF AND PLACEMENT.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS HAS BEEN
DROPPED AS MAJOR FLOODING NOT EXPECTED/THIS EVENT. SO FAR, STORM
TOTALS HAVE BEEN 0.25 TO AROUND 0.50 FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
DOWN TO THE COAST AND THIS HAS BEEN MAINLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND
COAST. FURTHER NORTH, AMOUNTS OF 005 TO 0.10 MAINLY FROM HOULTON TO
MILLINOCKET W/SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF UP TO 0.25 SUCH AS KNOWLES
CORNER DUE TO SOME CONVERGENCE. 18Z RADAR HAD LARGE AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS ALIGNING W/A THETA E
AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK BACK ACROSS WSW MAINE. ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN DOWN ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS LIFTING NORTH.
THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGE
WITH THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL REGION. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS
HOLDING PRECIP SHIELD AT BAY.
LOW PRES AT THE SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR HANDLE THIS WELL
AND LEANED CLOSE TO THIS BLEND INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE, RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. LLVL CONVERGENCE
AND FORCING AT THE MID LEVELS WILL AID IN ENHANCING AND EXPANDING
THE RAINFALL. ATTM, PUSHED POPS UP TO NEAR 100% ACROSS THE WESTERN
AROOSTOOK AND NW PISCATAQUIS REGION TO MATCH UP W/THE RADAR TRENDS
AND RUC PLACEMENT. AS LOW PRES LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS GET UNDER NVA AND LESS FORCING. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND
EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE ECMWF AND NOW
THE GFS. AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
AS THE 700MBS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION W/FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING SETTING UP. DECIDED TO LEAN W/THE NERFC QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THINKING W/AND ADDITIONAL 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM
12-00Z. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW GETS CAPTURED AND PULLS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL DRY OUT W/RAIN
ENDING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
MAINLY RUNNING IN THE 50S CWA WIDE. COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY USING A
BLEND OF THE NAM12/GMOS AND ECMWFMOS WHICH SHOWED LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. A NE WIND PICKING UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL AID IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF WITH HIGHEST POPS
EXPECTED SOUTH FRIDAY. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL BLEND THE NAM12 AND
GMOS. WILL USE 150 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEED FOR GUSTS.
TEMPERATURE INITIALIZED WITH THE GMOS. WILL ADD 3 DEGREES FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND 2 DEGREES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LOW GMOS BIAS LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, LEADING TO A MOSTLY
DRY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING
DROPPING TO MVFR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FROM KHUL DOWN INTO
KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
BY FRIDAY W/A ESE FLOW SETTING UP. VFR EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS KBGR AND KBHB WHERE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 1900L: ADDED AREAS OF FOG INTO WED AM...
PREV DISC: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE. A SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
OUT THERE ATTM W/WAVES OF 3 FT AND A 8-9 SECOND PERIOD. A BRIEF
WINDOW(3-6HR) OF WINDS APCHG 25 KTS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL COME DOWN AS THE LOW PULLS
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WAVES HEIGHTS CLIMBING ATTM TO 5-6 FT PER THE
LATEST OBS. DECIDED TO BRING WAVES UP A FOOT TO HIT 7-8 FT W/THE
LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. THE LATEST SWAN GUIDANCE HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.
SHORT TERM: FOR WIND WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND
GFS40. HAVE LOWERED SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 20 PERCENT TO
COMPENSATE FOR MARINE LAYER. FOR GUST SPEED WILL USE 125 PERCENT
OF SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: NORTHEAST WIND WAVES PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SECONDARY SOUTHERLY SWELL OUT OF
SOUTH (2 FEET/9 SECONDS). WILL USE NAM/SWAN TO INITIALIZE WAVE
GRIDS AND WILL REDUCE WAVE HEIGHT 1 FOOT TO COMPENSATE FOR HIGH
BIAS EXPECTED FROM NAM WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT THEN EXIT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE QPF AND PLACEMENT.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS HAS BEEN
DROPPED AS MAJOR FLOODING NOT EXPECTED/THIS EVENT. SO FAR, STORM
TOTALS HAVE BEEN 0.25 TO AROUND 0.50 FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
DOWN TO THE COAST AND THIS HAS BEEN MAINLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND
COAST. FURTHER NORTH, AMOUNTS OF 005 TO 0.10 MAINLY FROM HOULTON TO
MILLINOCKET W/SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF UP TO 0.25 SUCH AS KNOWLES
CORNER DUE TO SOME CONVERGENCE. 18Z RADAR HAD LARGE AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS ALIGNING W/A THETA E
AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK BACK ACROSS WSW MAINE. ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN DOWN ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS LIFTING NORTH.
THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGE
WITH THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL REGION. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS
HOLDING PRECIP SHIELD AT BAY.
LOW PRES AT THE SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR HANDLE THIS WELL
AND LEANED CLOSE TO THIS BLEND INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE, RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. LLVL CONVERGENCE
AND FORCING AT THE MID LEVELS WILL AID IN ENHANCING AND EXPANDING
THE RAINFALL. ATTM, PUSHED POPS UP TO NEAR 100% ACROSS THE WESTERN
AROOSTOOK AND NW PISCATAQUIS REGION TO MATCH UP W/THE RADAR TRENDS
AND RUC PLACEMENT. AS LOW PRES LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS GET UNDER NVA AND LESS FORCING. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND
EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE ECMWF AND NOW
THE GFS. AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
AS THE 700MBS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION W/FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING SETTING UP. DECIDED TO LEAN W/THE NERFC QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THINKING W/AND ADDITIONAL 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM
12-00Z. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW GETS CAPTURED AND PULLS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL DRY OUT W/RAIN
ENDING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
MAINLY RUNNING IN THE 50S CWA WIDE. COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY USING A
BLEND OF THE NAM12/GMOS AND ECMWFMOS WHICH SHOWED LOW TO MID 60S
NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. A NE WIND PICKING UP AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL AID IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. WILL BLEND THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF WITH HIGHEST POPS
EXPECTED SOUTH FRIDAY. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL BLEND THE NAM12 AND
GMOS. WILL USE 150 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEED FOR GUSTS.
TEMPERATURE INITIALIZED WITH THE GMOS. WILL ADD 3 DEGREES FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND 2 DEGREES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LOW GMOS BIAS LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, LEADING TO A MOSTLY
DRY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING
DROPPING TO MVFR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FROM KHUL DOWN INTO
KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
BY FRIDAY W/A ESE FLOW SETTING UP. VFR EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS KBGR AND KBHB WHERE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN PLACE. A SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
OUT THERE ATTM W/WAVES OF 3 FT AND A 8-9 SECOND PERIOD. A BRIEF
WINDOW(3-6HR) OF WINDS APCHG 25 KTS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL COME DOWN AS THE LOW PULLS
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WAVES HEIGHTS CLIMBING ATTM TO 5-6 FT PER THE
LATEST OBS. DECIDED TO BRING WAVES UP A FOOT TO HIT 7-8 FT W/THE
LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. THE LATEST SWAN GUIDANCE HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.
SHORT TERM: FOR WIND WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND
GFS40. HAVE LOWERED SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BY 20 PERCENT TO
COMPENSATE FOR MARINE LAYER. FOR GUST SPEED WILL USE 125 PERCENT
OF SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: NORTHEAST WIND WAVES PRIMARY WAVE
GROUP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SECONDARY SOUTHERLY SWELL OUT OF
SOUTH (2 FEET/9 SECONDS). WILL USE NAM/SWAN TO INITIALIZE WAVE
GRIDS AND WILL REDUCE WAVE HEIGHT 1 FOOT TO COMPENSATE FOR HIGH
BIAS EXPECTED FROM NAM WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAST WNW FLOW ALF
WITH H3 WINDS UP TO 100KT ALONG THE CNDN BORDER BTWN CLOSED LO OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA AND UPR RDG OVER THE PLAINS. UPR MI IS DOMINATED BY
SHRTWV RDG TO THE NW OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE LOWER LKS/MID
ATLANTIC STATES...WITH WEAK HI PRES RDG BRINGING DRY WX TO UPR MI
EARLY THIS MRNG EVEN THOUGH SCT-BKN CLDS ARE IMPACTING THE AREA.
SHRTWV ON THE CYC SIDE OF 100KT H3 JET CORE IN FAST WLY FLOW ALF IS
MOVING THRU SW ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF THE CNDN BORDER AND CAUSING
SOME SHRA/A FEW TS FM THE MN ARROWHEAD TOWARD ISLE ROYALE/NW LK SUP
UNDER THE SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND WELL E OF H85 COLD
FNT/DRY LINE MOVING THRU NW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING JUST N OF THE MN BORDER.
TDAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SHRA/ISOLD TS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD IS
PROGGED TO DRIVE E ACRS NRN LK SUP AND INTO ONTARIO E OF THE LK THIS
AFTN. SINCE BULK OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO SHIFT W-E JUST N OF UPR
MI...WHICH WILL BE ON THE ACYC SIDE OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...
SUSPECT THE BULK OF THE SHRA NOW OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WL REMAIN
JUST N OF THE LAND CWA...WITH THE SOMEWHAT HIER POPS FM ISLE ROYALE
TO THE KEWEENAW THIS MRNG BEFORE DRYING/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ARRIVE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL/RECENT
RAPID REFRESH MODEL APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON POPS FOR THIS
MRNG...SO USED THAT GUIDANCE MOST CLOSELY. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO
WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL CNVCTN MIGHT DVLP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF
THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COOL/DRY FNT. BULK
OF MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING QVECTOR CVNGC ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING
SHRTWV IMPACTING THIS AREA INTO EARLY AFTN...WHEN CNVGC BTWN LK
BREEZES OFF SUP/MI MIGHT PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR THE CNVCTN. MODIFIED
NAM FCST SDNG FOR ERY AT 18Z FOR SFC T/TD OF 73/57 YIELDS SBCAPE
NEAR 525 J/KG...SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS OVER E AND SCENTRAL
CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTN. AFT 18Z...THE WINDOW FOR TS DVLPMENT
SHOULD CLOSE WITH FCST SDNGS SHOWING STEADY DRYING ALF WITH
SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H6 ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS. OVER THE W...SKIES SHOULD TURN MOSUNNY WITH
ARRIVAL OF DRYING IN THE LO/MID TROP. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE
12-13C RANGE AND MIXING TO H75 ON NAM FCST SNDGS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO REACH AS HI AS THE LO 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W/SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK
MODERATION IN THE LLVL NW FLOW.
TNGT...WITH DRY AIR OVHD/LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT A TRANQUIL
NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMP DROP AS WINDS ARE FCST TO BE LGT
UNDER WEAK HI PRES RDG PASSING ACRS UPR MI. SOME HI CLDS MAY PUSH
INTO MAINLY THE WI BORDER COUNTIES LATE ON NRN FRINGES OF SHRTWV
MOVING INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY LATE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAINS INFLUENCED BY
TROUGHING MOST OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS RIDGE OVER CNTRL CANADA AND CNTRL CONUS
TRIES TO MAKE IT TO THE UPPER LAKES. RIDGE LOSES STEAM THOUGH AS
BY SUNDAY YET ANOTHER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WHICH
KNOCKS DOWN HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PATTERN DOES NOT
HOLD MUCH IN WAY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CWA...BUT WILL TREND AT
OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H85 THERMAL TROUGHING AFFECTS
THE REGION. MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING OCCURS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE NORTHERLY WINDS.
UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE PRESSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH H85 WARM FRONT AND
ALL THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE OVER NEB AND IOWA...NOT CAUSING ANY
CONCERN HERE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER H7 DWPNT/RH FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CNTRL
MN AND CNTRL WI. MAYBE AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS OR SPRINKLES WITH
THE H7 MOISTURE BUT AGAIN IMPACT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THIS FAR NORTH.
EVEN FARTHER NORTH...MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE SLIDING WNW TO ESE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH WAVE AXIS NOT
COMING ACROSS UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE GEM-NH WHICH
SHOWED WAVE AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NOW
KEEPS IT ALONG AND NORTH OF NORTH SHORE OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. SO WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AFTN
COOLING PROVIDED BY LAKE BREEZES. H85 TEMPS OVER 10C INDICATE MAX
TEMPS 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AWAY FM LAKE MODIFICATION.
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SLOWER...BUT ALSO STRONGER YET. ASSOCIATED
H85 LOW STRONGER OVER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WHILE H85 RIDGE STAYS
PUT OVER MANITOBA. NORTH FLOW BTWN THE FEATURES NOW ALLOWS H85 TEMPS
TO FALL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH GFS TURNING UP CHILLY +3C AT 18Z. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH NOT AS COLD...BUT STILL HAVE TRENDED COOLER OVER LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING OVR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN SHOWING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH COLD AIR COMING IN AT LOW-LEVELS FIRST.
AT FACE VALUE...SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE/STRATIFORM LGT RAIN
FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER AND
CLOUDIER FORECAST. ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER SMALL UPSLOPE AREA OF
NCNTRL. BY MID-LATE AFTN...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING TAKE OVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY ON THURSDAY
EVENING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS /PWAT LESS THAN 50 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IF WINDS END UP LIGHTER...WILL NEED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY MENTION SOME FROST. HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALL AREAS.
MOST WARMING WILL OCCUR INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHERE TEMPS WILL
PUSH ABOVE 70 DEGREES.
BY THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO MOVES EAST...RESULTING IN
LIGHT S/SE WINDS AT THE SFC. H85 WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY THOUGH WHICH KEEPS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT WELL TO THE
SOUTH OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRIMARY SHRA/TSRA
TO BE ROAMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT SO CHANCES OF APPRECIABLE RAIN
LOOK MINIMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON
ADVECTING LEFTOVER H85-H7 MOISTURE ACROSS UPPER LAKES THOUGH SO AT
THE LEAST COULD SEE INCREASED MID CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHRA
DURING THIS TIME THOUGH. PREVIOUS RUNS OF ECMWF WERE LESS GENEROUS
WITH THE MOISTURE. SINCE ECMWF USUALLY LEADS THE WAY IN VERIFICATION
AT LONGER RANGES...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR FAR WEST CLOSER TO SFC TROUGH AND GREATER H85
MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS IDEA WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF QPF ON SATURDAY AFTN. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN ON SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SFC-H85
LOW DROPPING ACROSS AREA ON WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH JET ENERGY ALSO
INCREASING. SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING MAY BRING CHANCE OF
ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA. DO NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN GOING FOR
HIGHER POPS AND WILL JUST RUN WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS. SFC FRONT
WORKS THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
A COLD FRONT SET UP EAST OF CMX AND IWD AT 18Z WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT ESE...AND BY E OF SAW AROUND 22Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POP UP
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...WITH VCSH AT SAW /AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
TS...ALTHOUGH TOO LOW OF A POTENTIAL TO ADD TO THE TAF/. VFR
CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MINUS A
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AT
SAW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY GET SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO HELP MOISTEN THE
LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 15KT OR LESS
THRU WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WAVES WILL
BECOME CHOPPY UP TO 4 FEET. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN
RESULTS IN LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE RAIN OCCURRING ON THE LAKE IS RESULTING IN FOG OVER WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT THE FOG BY FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
408 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION AND CUT INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO STEER A WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RETURNING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.
IN THE MEANTIME...ALREADY SEEING A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP FOR SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...SOME OF
WHICH IS CAPTURED BY LATEST HRRR AND 12Z WRF. EVEN SO...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SEVERE OR OTHERWISE...IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA WILL
BE NEAR THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND IN THE AXIS OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. SO WHILE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOCUSED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO SHIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT...WHERE A FEW OF OUR COUNTIES ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIRLY NICE...BUT BREEZY DAY...ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AS SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOONS
VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
ALOFT: GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON THE LONG-WAVE /LGWV/ FLOW THRU THE FCST PERIOD AND EVEN THRU DAY
10 /JUN 20TH/. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS WITH TROFS ON BOTH COASTS. THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY MILLING
AROUND OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GET SLOWLY KICKED INTO THE PAC NW
WED-THU AND KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE FRI-SAT BEFORE EMERGING INTO AND
DEEPENING THE ERN USA TROF. THIS WILL FORCE THE RIDGE TO RETROGRADE
INTO THE ROCKIES AS IT REBUILDS. THE INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE RIDGE WILL ADVANCE BACK INTO THE PLAINS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT NE PAC LOW MOVES ONSHORE.
SFC: THE COOL FRONT MOVES THRU WED WILL SINK TO THE KS-OK BORDER BY
DAWN THU...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING S INTO THE REGION. THE
ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW AND THE PV ANOMALIES ORBITING IT WILL
INITIATE A NEW LEE LOW THU NGT...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK N. THIS
WILL SPREAD THE 90+ HEAT BACK N INTO S-CNTRL NEB FRI. THE COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING PAC NW UPR LOW WILL ARRIVE HERE FRI
NGT AND WASH OUT. AS THE REMNANTS OF UPR LOW DROP INTO THE ERN USA
TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MUCH STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SUN
NGT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
THU: QUIET WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. COULD SEE AN EVNG SHWR/TSTM
DRIFT IN FROM NW KS OR WRN NEB.
THU NGT: COULD SEE AN MCS ROLL THRU HERE OR NEARBY AS LLJ PUNCHES
OVER THE LIFTING WARM FRONT.
FRI: HOT AND BREEZY IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF AN MCS OCCURS IT WILL
REINFORCE AND SLOW OR STALL THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS COULD BUST IF
COOL/CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGER. THE WARM FRONT COULD ALSO BE A FOCUS
FOR RENEWED LATE DAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
FRI NGT: STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH PASSAGE OF COOL FRONT. THIS COULD
BE A DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR TSTMS WHERE PARCELS CAN REACH THE LFC.
SAT-SUN: NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY MOST OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS EACH DAY...HIGHEST PROBABILITY BETWEEN
4PM-4AM. AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED/
WIDESPREAD TSTMS WILL BE SUN AFTN-NGT.
MON: PROBABLY ENDS UP DRY AS AMPLIFYING ERN USA TROF WILL TAKE THE
COOL FRONT FARTHER S THAN ITS PREDECESSORS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND FOR
PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 19Z.
WHILE SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW...AND DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY
ACTIVITY INTO THE 18Z TAF. THEREFORE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO BACK AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR 10-12KTS EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...SAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN
CONTINUED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM SOUTH WESTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHWEST
KANSAS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SFC DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO POOL
INTO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE BOUNDARY GENERATING QUITE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAS REALLY LIMITED MAX HEATING
POTENTIAL. NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE PRODUCING MODELS CONTINUE THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING IT EAST LATER THIS
EVENING.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AND ROLL EAST AS AN
MCS OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
ROLL OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MARCHES EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS BY SUNDAY WITH A SFC BOUNDARY PROGGED TO
EXTEND OVER THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AS ANY
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW COULD SPAWN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LOOK POSSIBLE INTO DAY 7 AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING TO
OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WAS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS BEEN REINFORCED SOUTH OF LINCOLN BY EARLIER OUTFLOW
FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT A SWATH OF HEAT BURST
CONDITIONS THROUGH LINCOLN AND TOWARD NEBR CITY. ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUED TO BUBBLE THROUGH 17Z NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND IT COULD
PERSIST WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF LATEST HRRR WOULD
VERIFY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO THINK ACTIVITY WILL
WANE AS HOT/DRIER AIR MIXES INTO ELEVATED LAYER AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DECREASES. THUS ONLY CARRIED A FEW HOURS OF VCTS AT
KLNK AND VCSH AT KOMA. BUT A CONTINUED MONITORING OF CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WIND SHEAR WAS MENTIONED AT
KLNK AND KOMA AND A CHC OF TSTMS WAS MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES AS
ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST.
AN UPPER WAVE AND MCS THAT CROSS PLAINS TONIGHT WILL DRIVE A WIND
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER
CIGS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
302 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING...AS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS...NORTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THE RIDGE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A CLOSED LOW NOTED
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 18Z HAS THE NRN
NEVADA SHORTWAVE...ENTERING FAR SWRN WYOMING. LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN MT AND NWRN WYOMING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL WYOMING...SE INTO NRN COLORADO...THEN EAST
INTO SRN NEBRASKA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES
HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WERE IN 80S. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WAS
PRESENT NORTH OF THE FRONT AND HAS PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST DEW
POINTS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AS OF 2 PM CDT DEW
POINTS...RANGED FROM 63 AT PINE RIDGE...TO 68 AT ONEILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. TOWARD 00Z THIS
EVENING...A DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE WITH TSRA
INITIATION DURING THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THE HI RES RUC...AS
WELL AS THE 12Z NAM SOLN...DEVELOPS ISOLD TSRAS IN THE NERN
PANHANDLE...AND SWRN NEBRASKA AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IN
THE SWRN CWA SHEARS OFF AND DISSIPATES QUICKLY BY 01Z. FURTHER
NORTH...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT AND DEEPER...RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY THIS EVENING. A TORNADO THREAT
WILL EXIST INITIALLY IN THE NWRN CWA WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...LOWERED LCL HTS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND 4KM WRF
SOLNS...SHERIDAN...AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK
OF SEEING A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...AND THUS THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DECREASE BY MID EVENING
AS A STRONG FAST MOVING MCS DEVELOPS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND RACES
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THIS WILL BE ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS. AS THE MCS TRACKS INTO SRN MN/NRN IA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NERN
NEBRASKA FOR WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PUSH INTO NERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 90.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM
FORECASTS. HEAT TO HANG AROUND WITH SUMMER BEGINNING EARLY. STRONG
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN INTO NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP JET STREAM WELL
NORTH. H5 SYSTEMS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRY TO
FLATTEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS BUT MAIN ENERGY WILL BE PUSHED
TO THE CANADIAN US BORDER WITH WEAKER WAVES MOVING UNDER THE
RIDGE. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY INCREASING LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN. NAM HAS BEEN
HANDLING HEAT FAR BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS AS OF LATE AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS NAM SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
CLEARING HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 15C
850MB TEMPERATURES OVER HEAD. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW AND WAVE
MOVING THROUGH HAVE RETAINED POPS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO WARM UP INTO
THE 90S ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA NEAR IMPERIAL. 850MB TEMPS 30C AND GREATER ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY LYING
ACROSS FORECAST AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES AT 700MB INDICATIVE OF
STRONG CAP AND POPS MAY HAVE TO BE REDUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.
EVEN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BEHIND FRONT BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAVE RETAINED THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS SYSTEM DROPS OUT
OF CANADA ACROSS MINNESOTA. BETTER CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR
THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AON 10000 FT
AGL TO APPROACH SWRN NEBRASKA FROM 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY SPARSE...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE 18Z KLBF TAF ISSUANCE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN SD AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK EAST THIS EVENING. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE KVTN TERMINAL DURING THE 01Z TO 06Z TIME
FRAME THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAY GUST UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1207 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WAS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS BEEN REINFORCED SOUTH OF LINCOLN BY EARLIER OUTFLOW
FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT A SWATH OF HEAT BURST
CONDITIONS THROUGH LINCOLN AND TOWARD NEBR CITY. ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUED TO BUBBLE THROUGH 17Z NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND IT COULD
PERSIST WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF LATEST HRRR WOULD
VERIFY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL TEND TO THINK ACTIVITY WILL
WANE AS HOT/DRIER AIR MIXES INTO ELEVATED LAYER AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DECREASES. THUS ONLY CARRIED A FEW HOURS OF VCTS AT
KLNK AND VCSH AT KOMA. BUT A CONTINUED MONITORING OF CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WIND SHEAR WAS MENTIONED AT
KLNK AND KOMA AND A CHC OF TSTMS WAS MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES AS
ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST.
AN UPPER WAVE AND MCS THAT CROSS PLAINS TONIGHT WILL DRIVE A WIND
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER
CIGS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AT 07Z WITH AN AREA
OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BIG QUESTION TODAY
WILL BE HOW HOT WILL IT GET IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHILE MOS TOPS OUT IN THE UPPER 90S.
00Z MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON CURRENT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LAST EVENING BUT HRRR HAS TRENDED TOWARD
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE COMPLEX THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN PLACING THE WARM
FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON
THEN STALLING THERE WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A BIT
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SLIDING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO COVER THAT POSSIBLE EVENT.
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS PROBLEMATIC WITH MODELS SHOWING NUMEROUS
WAVES MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AND TRIGGERING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES PROVIDE LIMITED CONFIDENCE TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
258 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS A WEAK TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY BUT MORE-SO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...THE CLOUD DECK HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO SCOUR OUT
OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND LUMBERTON AREAS. THE
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE
COAST. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
COUPLE SHRA FIRING OVER ROBESON COUNTY (DILLON EARLIER). THE DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAVE ALSO ACTED TO CAP THE ENVIRONMENT. THUS PLAN TO CONTINUE
<20 POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NO
POPS WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET TEMPS FOR
MINS TONIGHT...BASICALLY LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...AN EXTREMELY HOT PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY SINCE LAST
SEPTEMBER 1...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST SINCE LAST JULY.
MID LEVEL RIDGING BULGES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WHICH WILL LIE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 850MB TEMPS RISE TOWARDS
20C ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION.
HIGH RES ARW SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...WHILE NMM/NAM SHOW
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. WITH DRYING FLOW ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL
LID IN PLACE...WILL CAP POP AT SILENT...JUST BELOW THRESHOLD ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 90S PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE SINCE W/NW FLOW WILL PIN THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT HIGHS FROM AROUND 90 AT THE BEACHES TO MID 90S IN THE PEE
DEE. MINS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM DUE TO CONTINUED SW FLOW...FALLING
ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.
THURSDAY IS THE HOTTER, AND MORE INTERESTING DAY. 850MB TEMPS RISE
ALL THE WAY TO 22C...SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE
90S...AND THE HOTTEST DAY SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 (95 AT ILM, 95 AT FLO,
92 AT CRE) IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A
FEW OF THE FAVORABLE WARM SPOTS (BBP, CKI, RAWS OBS) TOUCH 100
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS HEAT...SEVERAL DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CREATE A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 70S.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE VERY HIGH TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL
RAISE APPARENT TEMPS TO NEAR-OR-ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
THE OTHER CONCERN THURSDAY IS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH MAY
IMPACT THE AREA LATE. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL REACH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS...DRIVEN BY A STRONG VORT/SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED WITH THIS FEATURE...MEANING BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATE /TOWARDS OR AFTER DARK/ WHICH
COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...2000-3000 J/KG, WITH
RAPID HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE EVENING, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7-8 C/KM WITHIN AN EML EVIDENT FROM 800-600MB...WHICH LOWERS THROUGH
THE EVE. ALSO NOTED...UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS APPROACHING 40 KTS WITHIN
THIS EML WHICH WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS FROM
NW TO SE LATE. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE...BUT LOSS OF
INSOLATION LATE COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. SPC CONTINUES A 15%
SLIGHT FOR THE SWODY3...AND WILL LIMIT MENTION OF SEVERE TO AFD/HWO
FOR NOW SINCE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN TIMING. FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY...AND MINS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
FAR NW...AROUND 70 AT THE COAST...BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION. PERIOD BEGINS
WITH EXITING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO SLIGHT CHC POP ALONG THE
COAST FOR FIRST HALF OF FRI BUT BY MIDDAY DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL USHER IN A COOLER DRIER AIR MASS. OVER THE WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CU
BUT DEEP NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT PRECIP.
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MON WITH PATTERN BECOMING MORE
PROGRESSIVE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PIEDMONT TROUGH
CONVECTION ON MON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/JETTING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUE IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO A MORE
ACTIVE DAY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. RETURN FLOW NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES CREEPING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MON AND
TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL QUITE DRY AT THE MID LEVELS...
NEVERTHELESS THE HRRR IS STILL SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN...AM NOT BUYING THE HRRR SCENARIO AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP
CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS. HAVE ALSO TONED THE SOUTHWEST WINDS DOWN
A BIT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG.
STRATUS IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL KEEP IT SCATTERED FOR NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...LIGHTER WINDS WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE
INLAND CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. CHOPPY SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP SW RETURN FLOW ONGOING OVER THE WATERS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE. AS THIS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY...TO AS MUCH AS 25 KTS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE SEAS HIGHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
THURSDAY /THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY...TO
4-6 FT LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE 5 SEC SW WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT
WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK WITH MINIMAL COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SAT AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT AND
PROXIMITY OF WATERS TO THE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS INTO SUN. GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED SUN AS BERMUDA
HIGH/PIEDMONT TROUGH COMBO SET UP. SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15 KT SUN
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC WATERS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT FRI MORNING
WILL SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT SAT AND SUN.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PREVAIL INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A VERY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS REMAIN AROUND 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S THIS MORNING...BUT WITH MIXING EXPECT THEM TO DROP INTO
THE 60S DURING THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
CAPPED AIR-MASS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE
CONVECTION...THUS HAVE KEPT POPS <20 ALL AREAS. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WEAKEN SOME DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FROM BECOMING PINNED TO THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OFF THE
EAST COAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH WED.
AT THE SURFACE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
INLAND CAROLINAS. OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP W-NW FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A FEW MINOR PERTURBATIONS RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WED INTO EARLY THURS.
WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALIZED CU DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
BY THURS THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL AID IN A DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE STRONG
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL ALSO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE THE BEST CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE ALIGNED MORE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
THURS EVENING. RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY RAIN FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL REMAIN HIGHER KEEPING AN
OVERALL HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY WARM TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 90S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO 100 WED AFTN
AND POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS INLAND NORTH
CAROLINA AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURS AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF COAST ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURS WILL
BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AFTN. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH DEWPOINT
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO 60 ON FRI WILL REBOUND BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY AND OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE H5 RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT
AND A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL
INTRODUCE LOW END POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S MOST
PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL QUITE DRY AT THE MID LEVELS...
NEVERTHELESS THE HRRR IS STILL SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THE MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN...AM NOT BUYING THE HRRR SCENARIO AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP
CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS. HAVE ALSO TONED THE SOUTHWEST WINDS DOWN
A BIT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG.
STRATUS IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL KEEP IT SCATTERED FOR NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...LIGHTER WINDS WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS AND THIS IS LINE WITH THE CURRENT THINKING THAT THE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE CAN BE DROPPED AT NOON. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BACK
TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 3-5 FT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...W-SW WINDS DOWN AROUND 10 KTS WED MORNING
WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
LATE THURS. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED INTO THURS AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FIRST DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND THEN DUE TO APPROACH OF COLD FRONT BY LATE THURS.
EXPECT SW WINDS BACK UP TO A SOLID 15 KTS BY THURS AFTN WITH SEAS
UP AROUND 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND PEAKING JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THURS EVENING AROUND 6 FT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LAST FROM THURS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTH AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
LATE FRI AND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST SD HAS ENDED...SO DROPPED
POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. 12Z
SOUNDING FOR KUNR SHOWS ABUNDANT CAPE...DRY AIR IN MID
LEVELS...AND ADEQUATE DEEP SHEAR INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL. HOWEVER, A VERY STRONG CAP
IS IN PLACE WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND FRONTAL INVERSION
BOTH EVIDENT. AS SHORT WAVE OVER UT THIS MORNING MOVES FAIRLY
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
TO WEAKEN THE CAP. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR MODEL AND OTHER CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN OVER WYOMING
COUNTIES AROUND 21Z AND OVER XTRM WESTERN SD AROUND 00Z ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO DVLP. HRRR SUGGEST QUICK EVOLUTION TO MCS...THUS
STRONG WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. WE WILL
RELEASE AN AFTN SOUNDING...AROUND 20Z TO CHECK ON CAP STRENGTH.
OTHER THAN POPS AND WX...FCST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
UTAH. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITHIN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS WYOMING INTO NE COLORADO. STRONG THETA E
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR K2WX TO KMBG. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA.
GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP THIS MORNING AS IT QUICKLY
PUSHES NORTHEAST TOWARD WYOMING. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE MAIN WAVE WILL CROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
CAPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. SBCAPE
REACHING WELL ABOVE 2000 J/KG OVER MOST OF THE CWA. CAPPING WILL
WEAKEN INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
INCREASING AS THE WAVE PUSHES THROUGH. STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. STORMS THIS EVENING WILL EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS
EVENING...AND PROPAGATE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE A CONCERN WITH THE MCS AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL SD.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS COMBINES WITH STRONG THETA E
ADVECTION. CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARD RETROGRESSION OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MOST OF AGGRESSIVE PER
THIS...SHIFTING A STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW INFLUENCE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND FRI/S TROUGH...PER A STRONGER MID LEVEL VORT MAX IN THE
SUN-MON PERIOD. PAC NW/EASTERN PAC TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN THE
PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM ACTIVE FLOW. HENCE...EVEN IF RIDGE
RETROGRESSION OCCURS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY ACTIVE
FLOW WITH AMPLE LL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HENCE...HAVE RETAINED
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WITH CONTINUED
INDICATIONS FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT TIMES IN THE
PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD GIVEN
IMPULSE LADEN WESTERLY FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH ANY DISTURBANCE
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AT THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE EXPECTED CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A DEEP SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT SUPPORTED WELL IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
AT THIS TIME. KEPT TEMPS AT OR AROUND SEASONAL NORMS IN THE PERIOD
WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WCNTRL-SWRN-SCNTRL SD WHERE MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCES A WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD. OTHERWISE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO NERN WY 21-03Z AND WRN SD
23Z-06Z. THESE STORMS WILL BRING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS...AS
WELL AS LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. THE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A
LARGE SYSTEM OVER WRN SD BY 03Z...AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MOST
OF WRN SD DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARBER
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BUNKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST SD HAS ENDED...SO DROPPED
POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. 12Z
SOUNDING FOR KUNR SHOWS ABUNDANT CAPE...DRY AIR IN MID
LEVELS...AND ADEQUATE DEEP SHEAR INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL. HOWEVER, A VERY STRONG CAP
IS IN PLACE WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND FRONTAL INVERSION
BOTH EVIDENT. AS SHORT WAVE OVER UT THIS MORNING MOVES FAIRLY
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
TO WEAKEN THE CAP. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR MODEL AND OTHER CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN OVER WYOMING
COUNTIES AROUND 21Z AND OVER XTRM WESTERN SD AROUND 00Z ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO DVLP. HRRR SUGGEST QUICK EVOLUTION TO MCS...THUS
STRONG WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. WE WILL
RELEASE AN AFTN SOUNDING...AROUND 20Z TO CHECK ON CAP STRENGTH.
OTHER THAN POPS AND WX...FCST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
UTAH. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES ARE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITHIN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS WYOMING INTO NE COLORADO. STRONG THETA E
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR K2WX TO KMBG. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA.
GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP THIS MORNING AS IT QUICKLY
PUSHES NORTHEAST TOWARD WYOMING. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE MAIN WAVE WILL CROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
CAPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. SBCAPE
REACHING WELL ABOVE 2000 J/KG OVER MOST OF THE CWA. CAPPING WILL
WEAKEN INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
INCREASING AS THE WAVE PUSHES THROUGH. STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. STORMS THIS EVENING WILL EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS
EVENING...AND PROPAGATE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE A CONCERN WITH THE MCS AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL SD.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS COMBINES WITH STRONG THETA E
ADVECTION. CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARD RETROGRESSION OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MOST OF AGGRESSIVE PER
THIS...SHIFTING A STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW INFLUENCE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND FRI/S TROUGH...PER A STRONGER MID LEVEL VORT MAX IN THE
SUN-MON PERIOD. PAC NW/EASTERN PAC TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN THE
PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM ACTIVE FLOW. HENCE...EVEN IF RIDGE
RETROGRESSION OCCURS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY ACTIVE
FLOW WITH AMPLE LL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HENCE...HAVE RETAINED
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WITH CONTINUED
INDICATIONS FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT TIMES IN THE
PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD GIVEN
IMPULSE LADEN WESTERLY FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH ANY DISTURBANCE
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AT THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE EXPECTED CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A DEEP SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT SUPPORTED WELL IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
AT THIS TIME. KEPT TEMPS AT OR AROUND SEASONAL NORMS IN THE PERIOD
WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA TO NERN WY 21-03Z AND WRN SD 23Z-06Z.
THESE STORMS WILL BRING A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. THE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
BLKHLS AFTER 03Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF WRN SD AFTER 06Z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARBER
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BUNKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL GENERALLY GO WITH VCTS ALL TAF LOCATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING BY 22Z AT KCRP AND AFTER 00Z ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS AS SEA-BREEZE PUSHES IN. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPO
THUNDER AT KVCT (BASED ON CURRENT RADAR) AND KLRD...AND MONITOR
OTHER LOCATIONS BUT THINK OTHERS MAY BE OK. WILL SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THUNDER...OTHERWISE VFR ALL BUT KLRD (BECOMING
MVFR TWD 09Z) AS LOW CLOUDS COME INTO AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. WINDS GO GENERALLY 6 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 06Z ALL TERMINALS.
GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS OVER AREA TOMORROW MORNING SO THINK VCSH
WILL BE NEEDED AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS AND
NOT MVFR (AGAIN EXCEPT AT KLRD BUT VFR AOA 16Z).
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CONVECTION GOING AS SEEN BY RADAR AND LOOK
OUT THE WINDOW...WITH CU FIELD WEAK TO MODERATE AND MID CLOUDS
COMING IN. SOME WEAK ECHOES ON THE RADAR SUGGEST BRIEF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT IS
ABOUT IT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY HRRR 4 KM MODEL...IS
STILL GOING WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER INLAND SECTIONS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS BUT KEPT 30/40 POPS FARTHER WEST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST GOING ALTHOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WESTERN AREAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO DO
ANOTHER UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES (AND POSSIBLY POPS) EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IF EITHER TEMP FORECAST DOES NOT PAN OUT (WEST TOO WARM
OR NORTHEAST TOO COOL)...AS WELL AS IF WESTERN POPS ARE TOO HIGH.
WINDS/CLOUDS LOOK OK.
MARINE...WITH MODELS SHOWING BEST FOCUS FARTHER WEST (INLAND)
LATER TODAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO ISOLATED OVER THE GULF WATERS.
OTHERWISE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME MARINE FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CONVECTION MAINLY
OCCURRING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ATTM...BUT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL TSRA RIGHT NOW...AND HAVE RETAINED VCTS
REMARKS AT THE TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST TODAY AS
THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. MOSTLY ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. DEEP
MOISTURE LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWED PW
VALUE OF 2.25 INCHES. MODELS PROG THIS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS...WITH PW VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE EAST TODAY OVER TEXAS...UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH RIDGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TAKE THIS
FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING SOUTH TEXAS IN FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONVECTION HAS ALL
READY DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND PUSH INLAND. WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS WESTWARD ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER 00Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. GFS/NAM DISAGREE
WRT TO CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP LOW END
POPS AS SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/STORMS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WITH
FORECAST IS THE PROGRESSION OF INVERTED TROUGH/UPPER LOW AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. GFS CONTINUES TO PULL LOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN
ECMWF...AND THEREFORE CUTS OF PRECIP CHANCES MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN
ECMWF. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS...SO MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP FORECAST. WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO
FORECAST ON THURSDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A LINGERING CHANCE
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW AS GFS HOLDS TO
DRIER SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES IN NEXT UPDATE THOUGH AS THE LOW PROGRESSES. THROUGH
THE PERIOD LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. FAIRLY
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SEASONAL HUMIDITIES AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND DURING THE AFTERNOONS LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 77 94 80 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 92 74 92 76 93 / 30 10 20 10 10
LAREDO 97 78 98 76 99 / 40 30 20 10 20
ALICE 95 74 95 76 97 / 30 20 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 90 78 90 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 10
COTULLA 95 74 96 76 97 / 40 30 20 10 20
KINGSVILLE 95 76 94 79 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 89 79 90 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
AT 3 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO BE FOUND FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ABOVE THE CAP DUE TO WEAK
TO MODERATE 700 TO 300 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK TO MODERATE
310 TO 320K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...WEAK TO MODERATE 700 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KNOT
250 MB JET.
THE 11.12Z MODELS THAT THE 700 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST `
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH OUR AREA FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE 700 MB VAD WIND AT KABR JUST
RECENTLY WENT FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS...
700 TO 300 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND 310 TO 320K ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
FRONTOGENETIC WING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND THEN SPREADS EAST INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATES OF 90 AND 94 BETWEEN 10 PM
AND 1 AM. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT A BREAK AND THEN
LOOKING FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX /LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR
RAPID CITY/ TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. A FEW OF THE MESO MODELS HAVE SHOWED THAT A LINE OF
STORMS WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 10 AM. 0-3 KM
SHEAR AND THE 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE MAY ARRIVE A BIT
LATER AND THAT THE LINE WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG WHEN IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. BY FAR...THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND BY THE TIME THAT IT ARRIVES THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY LEFT. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER THING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT IS THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THAT THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE INCREASING UP TO 1.8 INCHES AND
THAT THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 4 TO
4.5 KM RANGE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WILL ESPECIALLY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE FROM
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE EVEN A FEW SPOTS THAT
COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT QUICKLY MOVES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THIS IS BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...SO LOWERED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND TOOK THEM OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REALLY
STRUGGLE WITH BOTH THEIR LOCATION AND TIMING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL IS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...SO WENT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EVEN AS
ISOLATED/SCT -SHRA OR A -TSRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. FORCING FOR ANY
SHRA/TSRA THRU THIS EVENING GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FT WITH SCT DIURNAL
CUMULUS IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE BELOW THAT. UPSTREAM...VSBYS WHERE ANY
SHRA OR SPRINKLES HAVE OCCURRED THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE 7-10SM
RANGE.
FCST BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THE LATE EVENING THRU WED MORNING
HOURS. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN SD
THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO THE FCST
AREA IN THE 10-12Z TIME-FRAME WED MORNING. PLENTY OF MODEL DETAIL/
TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS THIS POTENTIAL SHRA/TSRA COMPLEX
ROLLS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THE FCST
FOR LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FOLLOWED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
AND INTRODUCED A 3HR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH TSRA WHEN THE
COMPLEX WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT
THIS TO BE A MATURE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHEN IT WOULD ARRIVE WITH A
SQUALL LINE OF TSRA. ADDED TEMPO GUSTY WEST WINDS DURING THE MVFR
TSRA PERIOD. ONCE THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD PASS...CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED MORNING WOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH SOME
TRAILING/LINGERING SHRA IN THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...PLAN
ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM
0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH WET
SOILS IN PLACE...EXPECT SOME RUNOFF ISSUES AND SOME SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES TO OCCUR. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON ANY AREAS THAT MAY SEE LONGER DURATION/HIGHER RAINFALL RATES
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
405 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION TRYING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH/DRYLINE WHICH IS NOW
POSITIONED FROM EASTERN CONVERSE COUNTY IN WYOMING DOWN TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN CENTRAL KIMBALL COUNTY IN NEBRASKA. LAPS AND SPC MESO
ANALYSIS OF MLCAPE BOTH SHOW THE CAP ERODING JUST TO THE EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH A STRONGER CAP FURTHER EAST INTO NEBRASKA. 50+
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BEING ANALYZED OVER THIS AREA AS
WELL...WITH LLVL SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE. STILL EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE
IS IN PLACE WITH A SLOWLY WEAKENING CAP. RECENT RAP AND HRRR MODEL
RUNS AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE WITH LLVL SHEAR INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THIS MORNINGS UPDATE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE COUNTIES.
FURTHER WEST...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35 TO
50 MPH AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
PUSHES THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND
THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS EVENINGS
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PRODUCE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAINLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS
DIMINISH.
SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LATER AFTERNOON.
A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AS SFC WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH COOLER SFC TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MORE STABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. DECREASING WINDS
AND A CONTINUED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE PATCHY
FOG OVER THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT SHOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH AND UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST PIVOT EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. A RIDGE AXIS THEN REBUILDS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN SURFACE WEATHER FEATURE OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A MEANDERING
DRY LINE/TROUGH SEPARATING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST FROM MUCH
DRIER AIR TO THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DRIFTING EAST FROM THE
EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY AS A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING MUCH OF THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER A
FEW TSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS WEST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED TSTORMS. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE DRY LINE
DRIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL AVERAGE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO 95.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE PACIFIC FRONT. TEMPERATURES WARM SOMEWHAT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 KT ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM AFTER 21Z OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KLSK...KBFF...TO KAIA. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN RAIN...ALONG WITH ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND HAIL. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS LOOK TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT EAST OF A KLSK TO KSNY...WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. WINDS OVERALL WILL EASE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE OVER CARBON COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE DISTRICT
TODAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTCENTRAL PLAINS OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WINDS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND
SOME HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO BETWEEN 6 AND 14 PERCENT AND WINDS ARE
GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AND
HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE DISTRICT ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AND SO MOSTLY DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT EXPECTED IN
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WINDY SIDE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. FURTHER
EAST...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL GUST 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM