Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/10/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS EUREKA CA
1136 PM PDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WEST COAST. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS LATE ON SUNDAY. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BATTLE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE
SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...RANGING FROM THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST. MODEL FORECAST 850 MB
TEMPS WILL WARM ANOTHER 1-2C...PEAKING NEAR 27-28C ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS DIRECTLY OVER NRN CA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MID 100S AT LEAST...WHICH WILL BE ABOVE DAILY RECORDS
FOR EARLY JUNE ACROSS SEVERAL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST ON SUNDAY...
RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MODELS
HAVE BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT
HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...WHICH WOULD TEND TO PUSH THE
TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EXPECT THE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND
MAINLY RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. WHILE PWS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPROACH 1
INCH SUNDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 500
MB...OR AT LEAST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
THIS MEANS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE
ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL. GENERAL TROUGHING WILL DROP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND PERSIST NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RELATIVELY COOLER BUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.
MEANWHILE AT THE COAST...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT HAS INTENSIFIED TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING,
RESULTING IN BETTER MIXING AND DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
TONIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR...BUT EXPECT SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
INTO THE EEL RIVER VALLEY AND HUMBOLDT BAY AND PERHAPS AROUND
FORT BRAGG...RESULTING IN CLOUDS THERE THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATIONS OF THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHING OFFSHORE...
EXCEPT PERHAPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR AND STRATUS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT AT LEAST WEAKLY ONSHORE...SO KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST FROM GETTING TOO WARM. EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE
LOW TO MID-60S WE SAW TODAY. THERE STILL SHOULD BE SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MORNING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY. BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR WILL ARRIVE RESULTING
IN GREATER COVERAGE AND INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS AND FOG.
WITH THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND A DECENT SFC GRADIENT
EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO CLEAR MOST LOCATIONS OUT
EACH AFTERNOON. AAD
&&
.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUT ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST.
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AT KCEC AS GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AND DAYTIME
HEATING HAS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WINDS THERE ARE PRESENTLY
GUSTING OVER 25 KTS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KCEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
STRONG AND NAM INDICATES FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
NAM...GFS..AND RUC FOG TOOLS ALL INDICATE POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT BUT LIMITED VSBY REDUCTION. HOWEVER...MOS INDICATE IFR
VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE GROUND AT
KCEC WITH MVFR VSBYS AND BKN LOW CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AT KACV AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE COAST N OF CAPE MENDO AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KUKI OVERNIGHT. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS FROM AROUND THE AREA HINT THAT
PRESENT WIND FORECAST IS ON TRACK TO PERHAPS A BIT HIGH.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROF INLAND AND BUILDING HIGH OVER THE E PAC
WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
FOLLOWING SUIT. OFFSHORE GALE WARNING AND NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAIN ON TRACK. ALTHO PROBABLY NOT A SLAM DUNK...SHOULD
BE ENUF AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF HAZARDOUS SEAS IN ZONE 450 TO
WARRANT UPGRADING HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO A WARNING. HAVE NOT
MODIFIED START OR END TIMES OF THESE PRODUCTS. IT APPEARS WE ARE
NEAR THE HEIGHT OF THE AMPLITUDE AND PERIOD OF SSW BACKGROUND
SWELLS. WILL UPDATE THE EXISTING MWS FOR HAZARDOUS BREAKING WAVES
ALONG S FACING HARBORS AND COVES AND EXTEND THRU TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED LATE TONIGHT OR DURING THE
DAY SHIFT SAT. /SEC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT WX WITH LOW RHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS
UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE DISTRICT. DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE 100S AND
AFTERNOON RHS IN THE TEENS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10 MPH AWAY FROM THE COAST, AND WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER NRN CA WILL BRING A SCHC OF
TSTMS SUN AND COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR TO NW CA. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SUN...SO CONFIDENCE
INCREASING REGARDING CONVECTION SUN. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND
RELATIVELY DRY, HOWEVER WE CONTINUE TO THINK COVERAGE WILL BE TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT A FIRE WX WATCH/WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING.
AAD/BC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ450-455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
146 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLD -SHRA MOVING INTO SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WITH MORE NUMEROUS -SHRA BACK TOWARDS NE VA/E MD/DE AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL NY INTO WESTERN VA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LATEST RUC/HRRR SUGGEST WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES WARRANT CHANCE POPS
FOR SCT COVERAGE WITH ISOLD COVERAGE ELSEWHERE...SO HAVE UPDATED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. RUC STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE OVER INTERIOR ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE ELSEWHERE...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. 35-45 KT OF
BULK SHEAR WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-40 OVER THE INTERIOR
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.25-1.5 INCHES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH MIXING
DOWN FROM 875 HPA...AND BLENDING WITH NAM AND HRRR 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV...0Z MET...AND 0Z BIAS CORRECTED MOSGUIDE
GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...BUT FROM AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
FOR THE HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENT THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION OF THE AFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/TSRA
EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ONCE AGAIN.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING SETTLES INTO THE NE AND COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES TO S WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THEN GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
AREA.
FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX
ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 210-270. SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 KT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE TEENS. A
SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...DO NOT THINK THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL GO
THROUGH KLGA. LATE THIS EVENING THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND THE LIGHT WIND WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR OR MVFR THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR IS EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z-22Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE...SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS WILL AVERAGE
6-10 FT TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SCA ENDS OVER WESTERN OCEAN WATERS BY 6 AM SUNDAY
AND FOR THE REST OF THE OCEAN WATERS...BY 11 AM SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS.
SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN 2 COASTAL OCEAN ZONES
INTO SUNDAY...THEN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SWELL COULD RESULT IN SCA LEVEL SEAS RETURNING
TO THE 2 EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT-ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY LESS THAN
1/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS RUNNING 1.25-1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER LEVELS IN SMALL
STREAMS...WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING THERE IF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.
HACKENSACK RIVER ON BERGEN COUNTY REMAINS ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL THE
AFTERNOON. ADDRESSING WITH AREAL FLOOD WARNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 OF AN INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS IN LOCATIONS RECEIVING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BREAKING SURF WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 10 FT TODAY...RESULTING IN A HIGH
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES. MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS WELL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLD -SHRA MOVING INTO SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WITH MORE NUMEROUS -SHRA BACK TOWARDS NE VA/E MD/DE AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL NY INTO WESTERN VA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LATEST RUC/HRRR SUGGEST WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES WARRANT CHANCE POPS
FOR SCT COVERAGE WITH ISOLD COVERAGE ELSEWHERE...SO HAVE UPDATED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. RUC STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE OVER INTERIOR ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE ELSEWHERE...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. 35-45 KT OF
BULK SHEAR WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-40 OVER THE INTERIOR
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.25-1.5 INCHES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH MIXING
DOWN FROM 875 HPA...AND BLENDING WITH NAM AND HRRR 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV...0Z MET...AND 0Z BIAS CORRECTED MOSGUIDE
GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...BUT FROM AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
FOR THE HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENT THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION OF THE AFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/TSRA
EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ONCE AGAIN.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING SETTLES INTO THE NE AND COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES TO S WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THEN GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
AREA.
FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX
ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE LOW...INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 280-310. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE TEENS. A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AT KJFK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...DO
NOT THINK THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL GO THROUGH KLGA. LATE THIS
EVENING THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND THE LIGHT WIND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING
AND FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN VFR IS EXPECTED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE...SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS WILL AVERAGE
6-10 FT TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SCA ENDS OVER WESTERN OCEAN WATERS BY 6 AM SUNDAY
AND FOR THE REST OF THE OCEAN WATERS...BY 11 AM SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS.
SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN 2 COASTAL OCEAN ZONES
INTO SUNDAY...THEN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SWELL COULD RESULT IN SCA LEVEL SEAS RETURNING
TO THE 2 EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT-ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY LESS THAN
1/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS RUNNING 1.25-1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER LEVELS IN SMALL
STREAMS...WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING THERE IF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.
HACKENSACK RIVER ON BERGEN COUNTY REMAINS ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL THE
AFTERNOON. ADDRESSING WITH AREAL FLOOD WARNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 OF AN INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS IN LOCATIONS RECEIVING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BREAKING SURF WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 10 FT TODAY...RESULTING IN A HIGH
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES. MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS WELL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1059 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLD -SHRA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
NJ...WITH MORE NUMEROUS -SHRA BACK TOWARDS BWI/DCA AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
LATEST RUC/NAM/HRRR/SREF SUGGEST ENTIRE AREA WARRANTS AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REMAINDER OF DAY. WITH RUC SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER INTERIOR ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE ELSEWHERE...HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. 35-45 KT OF BULK SHEAR WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-40 OVER THE INTERIOR ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS FROM 1.25-1.5 INCHES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH MIXING
DOWN FROM 875 HPA...AND BLENDING WITH NAM AND HRRR 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV...0Z MET...AND 0Z BIAS CORRECTED MOSGUIDE
GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...BUT FROM AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
FOR THE HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENT THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION OF THE AFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/TSRA
EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ONCE AGAIN.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING SETTLES INTO THE NE AND COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES TO S WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THEN GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
AREA.
FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX
ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE LOW...INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 280-310. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE TEENS. A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AT KJFK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...DO
NOT THINK THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL GO THROUGH KLGA. LATE THIS
EVENING THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND THE LIGHT WIND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING
AND FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN VFR IS EXPECTED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN ADDING ISOLD TSTMS IN THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE...SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS WILL AVERAGE
6-10 FT TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SCA ENDS OVER WESTERN OCEAN WATERS BY 6 AM SUNDAY
AND FOR THE REST OF THE OCEAN WATERS...BY 11 AM SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS.
SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN 2 COASTAL OCEAN ZONES
INTO SUNDAY...THEN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SWELL COULD RESULT IN SCA LEVEL SEAS RETURNING
TO THE 2 EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS WHERE WATER HAS PONDED...AND THE SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS MORNING. MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO RUNOFF...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 OF AN INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS IN LOCATIONS RECEIVING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BREAKING SURF WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 10 FT TODAY...RESULTING IN A HIGH
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES. MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS WELL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/MPS
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1018 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC AFTER 3 AM, THEN MOVING ONSHORE THE
ATLANTIC COAST STARTING AT 5 AM. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS EVEN THOUGH NONE ARE
CURRENTLY PRESENT ON RADAR. HRRR WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POP TOWARDS DAWN, BUT UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE INCREASING POPS AT
THIS TIME. A TYPICALLY MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...TERMINAL KAPF HAS SHOWERS THAT COULD
IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO HOUR WITH VERY BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS PASS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
TERMINAL KTMB COULD BE IMPACTED BY A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS
PASS WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE POSSIBLE.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
DISCUSSION...
DESPITE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, A FEW HEAVY
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ARE MOVING
ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST, AS WELL AS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. WHILE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS WAS EXPECTED, THE SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THE EAST
COAST IS NOT WHAT WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
EASTERLY WINDS TEND TO SHIFT MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. NEVERTHELESS, TRENDS DICTATE THAT WE KEEP IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST AND SCATTERED TSTMS FOR
INTERIOR AND WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED EASTERLY WIND FLOW, ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY
DECREASING AS WE GET TO TUESDAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST COAST METRO. DIDN`T
DEPART MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
LOWER POPS DEPICTED IN THE NAM-BASED MOS VERSUS THE HIGHER GFS-
BASED MOS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND STEERING FLOW TENDING TO FAVOR A WIDER DISTRIBUTION OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DIURNALLY-FAVORED AFTERNOON HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY, MODELS DEPICT A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH THE GFS STRONGEST
IN TRYING TO CLOSE OFF A WEAK LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER
OVERALL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD GET STRONG BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS AS MID-LEVELS COOL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING
RIDGE AND THE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, IF
THE INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES AS MODELS SUGGEST.
LOOKING LONG-RANGE...NOT MUCH CHANGE AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS LESS COVERAGE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
JUNE NORMALS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE 90S INTERIOR AND WEST.
AVIATION...
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...LEADING
TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR TSTM COVERAGE. POPS STILL AS HIGH AS
30 PERCENT AT SOME TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF APF. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH DIURNAL BUILDUP AS CU PERHAPS CAUSING A FEW
HOURS OF CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS OR VIS WITH ANY TSTM FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE AT APF. ESE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
EAST COAST BECOMING 5-10 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
APF WILL HAVE A SSW SEA BREEZE OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TURNING MORE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE...
E/SE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ATLANTIC WATERS AND 10-15 KNOTS GULF
WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SE.
SEAS WILL REMAIN NO MORE THAN 4-5 FT AND NO HEADLINES/CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS ANTICIPATED.
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SPOTS WITH LIGHT FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, BUT
CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 88 76 89 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 77 88 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI 78 89 76 89 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES 74 90 74 89 / - 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
845 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2013
.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
The large scale longwave pattern remains amplified, highlighted by
ridging over west half, a trough Ewd to east coast with axis
approaching MS River, and a ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc. Series of
H5 impulses continue to ride across base of trough Newd across Srn
MS into Cntrl AL advecting ample moisture Newd. At surface, high
well off mid-Atlc coast with stnry front Swwd across Cntrl GA then
Wwd across SE GA. Subtropical ridge W-E across Nrn FL Peninsula.
During Sun aftn into eve, very slow moving MCS developed offshore of
extreme Wrn Panhandle waters and aided by 30-40kt H5 flow from one
of the impulses moved N-NE around 25 mph towards SE AL and adjacent
SW GA. Higher winds did mix down into the stronger storms generating
special marine warnings over our Panhandle waters and a severe
thunderstorm across portions of Holmes, Walton and Washington
counties. Several outflows ahead of MCS may have knocked down a
few trees. By early eve, the MCS had weakened some and remained
over the western waters and coastal portions of Walton and Bay
counties. EVX radar estimated 3-3.5 inches STP over southern
Walton county. Our flash flood guidance remains very high. Still
will monitor in case localized flooding occurs.
For the rest of tonight, the combination of passing H5 impulse and
ample moisture advected Newd as reflected in TAE RAP soundings with
1.70 PWAT, and remnant of MCS will continue to generate storms,
although chances noticeably decrease over the SE half of CWA away
from impulses and MCS influence. However some rain from Wrn extent
of east coast sea breeze may impact portions of SE Big Bend. Will go
with 50-30% NW-SE POP gradient thru 06z then 40-0% after 06z.
Lows tonight will be in the low 70s. There is some potential for fog
tonight, especially where rains linger. NARRE focuses fog and low
clouds west half in areas of highest residual moisture and will
input into GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Monday through Tuesday]...
With ample deep layer moisture, CAPE, and Q-G forcing (associated
with the passage of a 500mb trough), we are forecasting above-climo
PoPs for Monday (50-60%). The trough will be east of our forecast
area Tuesday, so any forcing for deep moist convection will have to
come from the mesoscale (usually the sea breeze fronts). With deep
layer northwest flow, the sea breeze front will likely get pinned
near the coast, which is where our highest PoP will be (about 30%).
This PoP is slightly below climo, mainly due to the expected
decrease in deep layer moisture.
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday through next Sunday]...
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement as they forecast the
Southeast to be under northwest flow aloft through Friday, as a long
wave trough develops along the U.S. east coast. The day-to-day
details will be difficult to forecast, as both solutions differ on
the timing of minor short waves "diving down" into our forecast
area. This far out it`s nearly impossible to time these
disturbances, so we will carry near-climo PoPs until Friday, then
worry about fine-tuning as the week goes on. Sometimes these
disturbances can move through overnight, and sometimes they can be
associated with an enhanced threat of organized strong/severe storms
(night or day), including damaging winds.
Ironically, the GFS and ECMWF are in excellent agreement in their
timing of a "backdoor" cold front moving through our region on
Friday. Friday`s PoP will be above climo due to this front. Slightly
lower PoPs are forecast for next weekend as a drier airmass moves
into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...[Through 00Z Tuesday]
An area of rain with isolated TSRA currently pushing through the
panhandle and SE AL this evening will gradually weaken as it enters
SW Georgia and the western Big Bend. Went with convective tempo
groups at ECP and TLH to account for this activity. Later this
evening and overnight, lower clouds or patchy fog could develop as
winds decrease, especially from 09-13Z. VFR conditions should resume
after 13Z as the fog/lower clouds lift with another round of showers
and thunderstorms late Monday morning and afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Rain with embedded isold Tstms and gusty winds assocd with very slow
moving MCS will impact wrn waters at least until midnight. Divided
wrn and ern waters to account for this. Otherwise, winds and seas
are expected to gradually decrease overnight and Monday as the
trough (currently near the Gulf Coast) moves inland and weakens.
Winds and seas are likely to remain below exercise caution levels
for the next several days.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds throughout
the period, as the typical summertime pattern of daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms continues through the next several days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers remain below action stage. The WPC QPF total for the
next 5 days is 1 to 2 inches (much of which will occur today and
Monday), but isolated amounts could be much higher than this. The
localized nature of this heavy rain potential precludes the need for
any type of flood watch. The most vulnerable locations, as usual,
are urban environments, where even short durations of high rain
rates can cause flooding. The greatest threat for high QPF is today
and Monday, as precip water values will be above climo.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 89 71 93 73 / 20 50 30 30 20
Panama City 75 85 74 88 76 / 40 50 20 30 20
Dothan 71 89 71 95 74 / 50 50 20 20 20
Albany 71 89 71 94 74 / 40 50 20 20 20
Valdosta 70 90 70 95 71 / 30 60 30 20 20
Cross City 71 88 70 90 71 / 20 40 30 30 20
Apalachicola 75 84 74 87 75 / 20 30 20 30 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Block
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr/Block
HYDROLOGY...Fournier
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING A TOUGH TIME
DEVELOPING GIVEN A LITTLE CIN AROUND 850 TO 700 MB AND DRY AIR
ALOFT. RAP SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT NEAR 1.45 INCHES NEAR JAX INDICATING
THE DRYNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. STILL...WE EXPECT THAT
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF
ACTIVITY OVER NE FL WHERE SEA BREEZE MERGERS ARE MORE LIKELY. UPPER
LEVELS SHOW SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER PARTS OF NE FL WITH
THE REGION IN THE RRQ OF A 50-60 KT JET. LIKE WAS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE ANY
DOWNBURSTS...SO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR REST OF TODAY
AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
IN FROM THE GULF. WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE AN ONSET OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH
AN ACTIVE WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. STORMS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING FROM WEST/EAST
COAST SEABREEZE MERGER. GIVEN HIGH PWAT (2+ INCHES) AND INSTABILITY
(CAPES 2500-3000J) A FEW STORMS COULD GET STRONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. CLOUD
COVER AND AND HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE WILL HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER CHECK SUNDAY AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
STATES EARLY ON MON INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE FL PENINSULA BY
TUES...WHICH WILL KEEP MEAN LAYER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE
LOCALLY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON MON...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO ON MON...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. MOISTURE
LEVELS SLOWLY DECREASE ON TUES...BUT FORCING FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY
SINKING INTO OUR AREA SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. LESS MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON TUES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...WITH UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. ACTIVITY
ALONG A WEAK SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ON TUES IN NORTHEAST FL. LOWS WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL
TO THE 70-75 RANGE.
LONG-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS
STATES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL CHANGE OUR FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY TO
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY...WHICH WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO
OUR REGION. THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BE DISPLACED OVER
SOUTH FL...AND A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD FOCUS WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED POPS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. LESS CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 AT THE COAST ON WED AND THURS. TROUGHING
MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRI TO BRING A
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE FRONT WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SAT. HAVE DEPICTED SCATTERED
POPS REGION-WIDE FOR FRI...WITH SCATTERED POPS CONFINED MAINLY
FOR NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA FOR SAT. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPERATURES STILL AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT CUMULUS AROUND TAF SITES WITH JUST VERY ISOLD SHOWER
CELLS POPPING UP AT 1810Z. CLOSEST SCT CONVECTION TO THE TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME IS JUST OF MARION COUNTY MOVING NEWD WHICH WILL MISS TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD
AFFECT TAF SITES REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EVENING AS AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE COAST BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH FOR INSERTING TEMPO GROUPS. BY MIDNIGHT MOST CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATED BUT ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES S TO N OVER THE AREA.
&&
MARINE...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCEC CRITERIA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FROM ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 87 69 89 / 30 60 40 50
SSI 75 84 74 85 / 30 60 50 60
JAX 72 87 71 88 / 30 60 50 60
SGJ 73 85 74 86 / 30 60 50 60
GNV 71 87 71 89 / 30 60 50 50
OCF 71 88 72 90 / 40 60 50 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/PETERSON/STRUBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PATTERN IS
STILL CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGHING
COVERING THE THE NATION EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OUR FORECAST
AREA RESIDES WITHIN A ZONE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOW AGAIN SURGING NORTHWARD WITHIN THIS FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS STILL SOUTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE OR RE-DEVELOP
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH.
REGIONAL RADARS HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN THE BEGINNING OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELDS
AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RRQ OF AN CONUS EAST COAST SPEED MAX. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AND
MUGGY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. QUICKLY RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR THESE TEMPERATURES
TO DROP MUCH MORE BEFORE SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TODAY...A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY TYPE DAY LOOKS PROBABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. NO WASHOUT EXPECTED...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP SHOULD
SUPPORT A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...ALREADY SEEING
SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITHIN THE
DEEP SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE
RRQ OF AN IMPRESSIVE EAST COAST SPEED MAX ARE SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASED SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ONLY INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE
PRODUCTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING...THEN RAMPING UP TO LIKELY
CHANCES FOR MOST SPOTS BY LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...HOWEVER THE COLUMN IS VERY
WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS 17-18C...SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN TO PUSH
TEMPS TOWARD 90.
TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHWARD TAKING THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE PATTERN NORTHWARD AS WELL. THIS LOSS OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE
THE SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. BETTER SUPPORT IS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
NATURE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DEEP SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE OFF THE GULF. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND DROP POPS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN FAIL TO FALL
BELOW 70 AT MOST STATIONS.
SUNDAY/MONDAY...
SUMMER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTING FORECAST FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FL PENINSULA PROVIDING A LIGHT EAST/SE SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT WEST-COAST SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE
EVENTUAL OPPOSING FLOWS EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR OUR SIDE OF THE STATE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START OUT EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY A RAMP
UP IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PEAK
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PATTERN FAVORING A WEST COAST
CONVERGENCE MAX ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN FOR DEEP
CONVECTION SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD LIKELY (60-70%) THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH END CHANCE
(45-55%) THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINLY IN THE EXTENT OF COLUMN MOISTURE. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN THAN AN UPGRADE TO LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. SEASONABLE TEMPS
EXPECTED EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF COAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES
ACROSS NORTHERN FL TO THE GULF. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY THU WHERE
IT LINGERS THROUGH FRI...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH REACHING THE
EAST U.S. COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES DOWN FL...WITH
A RELAXING GRADIENT...INTO THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE KEYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR MID TO HIGH END POPS FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH
AND THE RIDGE DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA SOME DRYING FILTERS IN BUT
STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW END SCATTERED RANGE. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO WESTERLY...WHICH WOULD FAVOR
COASTAL ACTIVITY IN THE MORNINGS AND INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS POSITION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE FORMATION OF MORE DEFINED
SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NEAR THE
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR WITH VCNTY SHRA/TSRA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH SOME MVFR IN HEAVIER TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. ALTHOUGH NO DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. MORE TYPICAL
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSE
TO THE COAST.
FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT FOG COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 90 74 / 70 20 60 30
FMY 89 74 91 74 / 60 20 70 30
GIF 90 72 92 73 / 70 20 60 30
SRQ 86 73 89 73 / 70 20 60 30
BKV 88 72 90 71 / 60 20 60 30
SPG 86 77 90 76 / 70 20 60 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
UPDATE...
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE TEMPS BASED ON SOME MORNING
SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUD COVERAGE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...TIMING OF INCREASING POPS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED
ON RECENT HI-RES MODEL RUNS AND SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS THE GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD. PWATS ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS ARE IN THE
1.8-2.0 INCH RANGE THEREFORE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUITE
EFFICIENT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
LARGELY ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 436 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
WITH THE CWA BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AREA IS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA
AND WILL MAKE FOR A RAIN FILLED SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING EXPANDING THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND BY AFTERNOON EXPECT DEVELOPMENT ALSO ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH EXCEPT FOR BEING
SLIGHTLY SLOW INITIALLY ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
SHOWERS...APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE SHEAR IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL HELP TO PLAY A ROLE IN
SUPPRESSING SEVERE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH POPS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST IS FOR BETTER
CHANCES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL LIKELY POPS IN FOR
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE CWA AND WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A DRY SLOT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY SO APPEARS MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FOR THE MOST PART AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSELY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING.
11
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA PROVIDING FOR AN ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM RISK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE POPS HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN THE DAYTIME...CERTAINLY AN ODDITY
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FIRST SHORTWAVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER TRANSITIONING TO JUST MID
RANGE SCATTERED FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN LATE TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH. GFS SHOWS POTENT DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ON THU
WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH AND ALLOWS A WEAK
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SUPPORT AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WILL RESULT IN HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THU EVENING.
AS FRONT CLEARS...EVEN DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER. WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE BUT POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END
CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14-16Z MON. CEILINGS ARE UP AND DOWN
BUT MAINLY STAYING IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE IFR RANGE OVER NIGHT THEN LIFT BACK TO VFR BY 16-18Z MON.
WINDS WILL STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE SW BUT THEY MAY TURN BRIEFLY TO
THE SE BETWEEN 02-06Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 82 68 89 / 80 60 40 40
ATLANTA 67 82 69 86 / 80 60 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 65 78 64 82 / 80 60 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 68 83 68 88 / 80 60 50 20
COLUMBUS 70 86 71 91 / 70 60 30 40
GAINESVILLE 67 79 67 86 / 80 60 50 30
MACON 70 85 69 90 / 70 60 40 40
ROME 69 84 67 88 / 80 60 60 20
PEACHTREE CITY 68 82 67 88 / 80 60 30 30
VIDALIA 72 87 72 90 / 60 60 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...FANNIN...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...
WHITFIELD...WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
904 PM MDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...WV IMAGERY SHOWS WELL WRAPPED UPPER LOW ALONG CALIFORNIA
COAST BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ALREADY PRODUCING MODERATE
CONVECTION THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...BUT HAVING A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN INTERSTATE 80. UPPER
LEVEL BLOW OFF FROM THE CONVECTION IN NEVADA BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ALONG THE STATE LINE. MODELS STILL HAVING
ISSUES NAILING DOWN TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ONSET OVER EASTERN IDAHO.
EARLY LOOK AT 00Z NAM HOLDS OFF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 18Z LOCAL
WRF BOTH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TRACE EVENT QPF OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE STILL FAIRLY LOW FOR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT DRY GRIDS IN PLACE.
ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS FOR DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LATEST
NAM DROPS CENTER OF STRONG DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WITH 700MB 40+KT JET SURGING NORTH
EAST OF THE LOW. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN LATE MONDAY IF THIS SOLUTION HOLDS TRUE WITH HEADLINE
FOR STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHAT GFS HAS TO SAY
FOR MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...NO UPDATES FOR EASTERN IDAHO FOR
TONIGHT. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM MDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TONIGHT. FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES OVER
PREVIOUS RUNS...UPPER LOW CIRCULATION STILL TRACKS THROUGH POINT
CONCEPTION TO ABOUT DESERT ROCK NEVADA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
TO NEAR WENDOVER UTAH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ALSO IS A MINOR
DISTURBANCE RIPPLING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHICH FLATTENS THE
FLOW AND NUDGES THE PATTERN SLIGHT SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS TO RESULT IN LIGHTER AND MORE WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...LESS DOWN SLOPE AND NOT SO WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH DRIER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TRIED TO STAY WITH THE NAM
FOR CONVECTION MONDAY. STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER AMERICAN FALLS
RESERVOIR MONDAY AFTERNOON IS MARGINAL FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
AND DECIDED TO LET THE MID SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK BEFORE
ISSUING. SOUTH WINDS DO PICK UP MONDAY...BUT ARE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TO
SUPPORT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT POCATELLO...IDAHO FALLS MAY BE
PLUS OR MINUS ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD. AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
MONDAY NIGHT...A 700MB TROUGH CROSSING FORECAST AREA COULD SET OFF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STARTING TUESDAY
MORNING...THE NAM SPEEDS UP PROGRESSION OF THE LOW NEAR WENDOVER
AND DRIES THIS AREA OUT QUICKER...GFS IS SLOWER. RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LOOK TO SEE IF MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT NEXT
RUN. RS
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SYSTEM THAT THEY
SHOW SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH OVER OUR AREA SHOWING MORE PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR. WYATT
AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY THERE IS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WITH WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS
FOR ALL TAF SITS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BRING
STRONGER WINDS FOR ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW PARTICULARLY FOR KSUN. WYATT
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHOT LOOKS TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
PRECIP OVER KENTUCKY ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SECOND SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION COMES AFTER 00Z AS THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES. GOOD LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS AN AREA OF SHRA WITH TSRA PUSHING
THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING. FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE GOOD SATURATION...PARTICULARLY DURING BY 06Z TIME FRAME.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS...PARTICULARLY EARLY ON IN
THE EAST AS THE TSRA AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND ACROSS
THE AREA AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS N MONDAY. GFS
AND NAM DEPICT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA PUSHING THROUGH
AND EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD CYCLONIC
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS STEEP
LAPSE RATES BY 18Z MONDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. CAPE
REMAINS IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ONLY IN
THE LOWER 70S. THUS GIVEN THE FLOW...THE FORCING AND DAYTIME
HEATING SOME SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE TO THE MAVMOS POPS HERE GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THIS SET UP. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGHS AS GOOD CLOUD COVER COULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE PASSING LOW.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON MONDAY AND AS GOOD RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLE AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME UNREACHABLE. AGAIN THERE IS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OF INDIANA BY LATE TUESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
ONCE AGAIN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HINT EVEN WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
700MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 12C...WHICH IS USUALLY A PRETTY DARN GOOD
CAP. THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WARMER EACH DAY.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE AN UPPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKER SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS
BEING VERY QUICK TO DRY US OUT...WILL DROP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WEEKEND. BUT THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST.
FOR NOW LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER HPC SOLUTION.
WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST PERIODS...EXCEPT A TAD WARMER FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THERE WILL BE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 100300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST WEST OF KIND AT THE MOMENT...AND
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE OVER KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPO MENTION. COULD BE IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH 05Z OR SO...THEN MVFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MORNING MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TAF
SITES IN THE FIRST QUARTER OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE LINES. TRIED TO TIME WITH TEMPOS THE
BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
CONVECTION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.
AFTER THE LINES MOVE THROUGH SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO MID MORNING MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN.
PREDOMINANT MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
IN. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 17Z OR SO.
OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10KT FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN WY AND WESTERN NE WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE AND KS TONIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL NE...SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KS. ONLY ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
KS AHEAD OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE RESULTING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED
SHOWERS HAVE KEPT THE AIRMASS MORE STABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 22Z AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND IN THE AREA OF STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING H5 TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE ONLY QUESTION IS TO THE DEGREE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF SFC BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS AS IF THE THREAT FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SPC
EMC RAP MODEL SHOWS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS...SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PNHDL. IF
THERE IS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE ELEVATED SHOWERS...THEN PERHAPS
SBCAPES MAY INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT
ALONG THE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ATTM...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS MAY BE GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AS THE H5
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO IA AND EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH MO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR EAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
IA WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES MAY
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW LOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
GARGAN
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEEKEND`S PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND
DEVELOPING INTO A BROAD RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS BROAD RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE...MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
SET UP AS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OR SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS SKIMMING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE DEPENDENT UPON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DIP FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD THOUGH IS WITH THE RISING
TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MIXING FROM 800-850MB DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
UPWARDS OF 21C-28C. ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AIDS IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION WITH 25C-28C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ALSO REMAINING QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN AT THE TAF SITES. SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 14 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 29 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS TO THE EAST
LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN...WITH
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM/FIRE WX SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A NORTHWEST FLOW JET STREAKED WAS IMPINGING ON WESTERN KANSAS
MID-AFTERNOON. PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WAS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR LOOP IN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK FROM
NEAR CHEYENNE, WY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA. THERE WAS
AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
INTRUSION. THIS PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF ACCAS AND ATTENDANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY MOIST WITH EARLY AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE MID-50S DEGF. THE FRONT AT 18Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR JOHNSON TO
SCOTT CITY TO HILL CITY...WITH A CONTINUED PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. AS
OF 18Z...THE ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE AT 18Z, 0-6KM
AGL BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH NEARLY 90-DEGREE
VEERING IN THE 850-500MB LAYER SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONVECTIVE MODE, DURATION, SEVERITY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE
"TONIGHT" PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. JUST ABOUT ALL SHORT-TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
20Z ALONG THE FRONT. THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL COHERENT CELLS
(PERHAPS SUPERCELLS) AS THE INITIAL MODE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CONCERN FOR HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE IN THE STRONGEST STORM STILL
LOOKS JUSTIFIED. ONCE AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IS GENERATED...THE
GROWTH UPSCALE WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION IN SEVERE THREAT FROM ONE
OF LARGE HAIL TO ONE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WHEN AND WHERE
EXACTLY THIS WILL TRANSITION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT BY 00Z THE
GENERAL THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE
QUASI-LINEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
PORTION OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA (ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183).
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY LAST A BIT LONGER
WITH SLIGHTLY A BIT MORE CAPPING TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM GROWING
UPSCALE TOO QUICKLY. NO CHANGE WAS REQUIRED IN THE POP/WX GRIDS
WITH 60-70 POPS STILL QUITE REASONABLE. STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE DDC FORECAST AREA (EAST AND SOUTH OF BARBER,
COMANCHE, PRATT COUNTIES) DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY:
DURING LATE NIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
VEER SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TO LOWER 60S ALONG INTERSTATE 70. 500 HPA RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 34
DEG C. HAVE USED ECMWF FOR TEMP GUIDANCE AND NUDGED TEMPS DOWN AS THIS
MODEL TYPICALLY OVERDOES A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE NEAR THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY:
A LEE INDUCED LOW/TROF WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THE 850 HPA WARM PLUME WILL ADVECT FARTHER EAST.
VALUES IN THE 32-36 DEG C RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SUPPORTS MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES (OBVIOUSLY MUCH HIGHER THAN 850 HPA)
IN THE LOW 100S. AGAIN, USED THE ECMWF AS A BASIS AND THE NUDGED DOWN
TO REDUCE THE IMPACTS FROM THE MODEL GENERATED SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG 591 DM RIDGE CONTINUES
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. LASTLY,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
WEAK FRONT MAKE TRAVERSE THE REGION WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT, SO NORTHERN ZONES MAY "COOL OFF" TO THE 90S. THURSDAYS
ONWARDS, THE 850 HPA WARM PLUME WILL REDEVELOP AND ADVECT EASTWARDS
ON FRIDAY. THIS SUPPORTS HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S. MINIMUMS
WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
VICINITY OF HYS, GCK, AND DDC TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING (ROUGHLY 22Z THROUGH 01Z TIME FRAME). BEHIND
THE FRONT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY...WITH A DECREASE IN WIND SPEED AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS A RESULT OF HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW DEWPOINTS, AND BREEZY/WINDY
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. RH`S COULD STILL BE AOB 15 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, BUT WINDS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 91 65 100 / 40 0 0 0
GCK 58 91 65 101 / 30 0 0 0
EHA 59 93 69 101 / 30 0 0 0
LBL 61 93 67 102 / 40 0 0 0
HYS 58 87 61 96 / 20 10 0 0
P28 63 89 67 97 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
120 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A NORTHWEST FLOW JET STREAKED WAS IMPINGING ON WESTERN KANSAS
MID-AFTERNOON. PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WAS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR LOOP IN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK FROM
NEAR CHEYENNE, WY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA. THERE WAS
AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
INTRUSION. THIS PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF ACCAS AND ATTENDANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY MOIST WITH EARLY AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE MID-50S DEGF. THE FRONT AT 18Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR JOHNSON TO
SCOTT CITY TO HILL CITY...WITH A CONTINUED PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. AS
OF 18Z...THE ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE AT 18Z, 0-6KM
AGL BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH NEARLY 90-DEGREE
VEERING IN THE 850-500MB LAYER SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONVECTIVE MODE, DURATION, SEVERITY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE
"TONIGHT" PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. JUST ABOUT ALL SHORT-TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
20Z ALONG THE FRONT. THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL COHERENT CELLS
(PERHAPS SUPERCELLS) AS THE INITIAL MODE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CONCERN FOR HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE IN THE STRONGEST STORM STILL
LOOKS JUSTIFIED. ONCE AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IS GENERATED...THE
GROWTH UPSCALE WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION IN SEVERE THREAT FROM ONE
OF LARGE HAIL TO ONE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WHEN AND WHERE
EXACTLY THIS WILL TRANSITION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT BY 00Z THE
GENERAL THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE
QUASI-LINEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
PORTION OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA (ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183).
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY LAST A BIT LONGER
WITH SLIGHTLY A BIT MORE CAPPING TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM GROWING
UPSCALE TOO QUICKLY. NO CHANGE WAS REQUIRED IN THE POP/WX GRIDS
WITH 60-70 POPS STILL QUITE REASONABLE. STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE DDC FORECAST AREA (EAST AND SOUTH OF BARBER,
COMANCHE, PRATT COUNTIES) DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. VERY WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SPREAD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND H7
TEMPERATURES AOA +15C ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT EACH DAY, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ARE LIKELY ALMOST EVERY DAY.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WILL HELP
TO KEEP VEGETATION GREEN FOR A FEW DAYS, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DRY OUT PLANTS QUICKLY, AND EVEN
PLANTS THAT APPEAR TO BE GREEN MAY HAVE LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT
TO CARRY FIRE BY MID WEEK.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE FROM THE ARABIAN SEA TO THE
MARITIME CONTINENT, BUT THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A COHERENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION MAY DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND MARITIME CONTINENT BY 12 JUNE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. RELATIVE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM IS MORE
THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. MOUNTAIN TORQUE HAS
TRENDED MORE POSITIVE IN RECENT DAYS, AND THE RELATIVE ANGULAR
MOMENTUM TENDENCY HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY POSITIVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN PHASE 2-3 OF THE BERRY/WEICKMANN
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, WHICH FAVORS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 40N AND 50N AND
130W-170W, AND THIS WARM POOL SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF WEAKENING. WITH
THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH, THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY WILL FAVOR RIDGING IN
THE PACIFIC WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY BE A COMMON FEATURE THIS SUMMER.
SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AS THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO WYOMING CLOSES OFF OVER IOWA. PRESSURES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE ROCKIES, AND THE FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE EML SPREADS INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE EML AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES WARM
AIR ADVECTION. POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE SEEMED APPROPRIATE
GIVEN THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY AND SHOULD
EXTEND NEAR A LINE FROM GOODLAND TO COLDWATER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY, AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY FORM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN
WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG EML WILL PRECLUDE ANY NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE TUESDAY, AND A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
DEEPEN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND H8
TEMPERATURES FROM 30C TO 35C WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RIPPLES EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST, A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES ON TUESDAY AND STILL
SHOULD REACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HEIGHTS
WILL RISE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS KANSAS
ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SO WARM THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY
WITH THE FRONT, BUT POST FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS MOISTURE
POOLS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EML WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
VICINITY OF HYS, GCK, AND DDC TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING (ROUGHLY 22Z THROUGH 01Z TIME FRAME). BEHIND
THE FRONT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY...WITH A DECREASE IN WIND SPEED AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 91 63 99 / 40 0 0 10
GCK 58 91 63 100 / 30 0 0 10
EHA 59 93 67 100 / 30 0 10 0
LBL 61 93 66 101 / 40 0 10 0
HYS 58 87 60 94 / 20 10 0 10
P28 63 89 66 95 / 70 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1257 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS NEAR THE NEB
STATE LINE. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AS NOTED ON
THE RAP AND NAM PROGS. INSTABILITY PER THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAINS LIMITED AND THIS SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE SHOWERS. THINK THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM WY INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
SEEN ON THE 11Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO WY. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY CAUSING CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN WY. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS GRADUALLY
BEEN DEEPENING ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER WY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
WITH THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING TO AROUND 60.
ADDITIONALLY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING A MODIFIED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THAT THERE WILL BE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSE TO 90 PERCENT. WITH
RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER...MODEL PROGS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER MODEST
ON CAPE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH STEEPER THAN THE MOIST
ADIABAT. THE CONCERN IS THE LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 BULK
SHEER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS. MODELS SHOW THE
COLLOCATION OF THE LOWEST LCL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL SHEER TO BE ALONG
HWY 36 AND TO THE NORTH. SO IF THERE WERE ANY DISCRETE STORMS...
THERE COULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. HOWEVER WITH STORMS
ONGOING UPSTREAM WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WE MAY BE MORE INCLINED TO
HAVE SOME SORT OF MCS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY MID AFTERNOON
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY
END UP BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE WAVE WAITING UNTIL IT REACHES THE MO RIVER TO BEGIN TO CLOSE. SO
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST FORCING TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND AND
EXPECTING MAINLY AN MCS FOR STORM MODE...THINK STORMS WILL MOVE OFF
INTO MO AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POPS DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. SO LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
BEHIND THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING...MAY STILL
SEE SOME POST FRONTAL ELEVATED SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
OVER EAST CENTRAL KS. OTHERWISE THE STACKED CYCLONE EXITS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ALLOWING SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA BY
THE AFTERNOON...00Z GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN TRYING TO LIFT THE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WITH SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR NOW AS BEST FORCING STAYS OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS.
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A SFC LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY EVENING. GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO
ECMWF. STILL A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY WE COULD SEE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOP AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS SURFACE TROF
LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
12Z H85 TEMPS NEAR 28C SUGGEST WE COULD SEE A TASTE OF SUMMER
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. OPTED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...HOWEVER INTERESTING TO
NOTE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS THE WARMEST SCENARIO WITH MIXING UP TO 850
MB TRANSLATING TO THE MIDDLE 90S ON TUES AND WED SO MAY NEED TO
WATCH TO SEE IF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS THIS WAY. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS GAINS CONTROL BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH CLEAR SKIES...AMPLE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HIGHS STEADY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN AT THE TAF SITES. SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 14 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 29 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS TO THE EAST
LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN...WITH
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS NEAR THE NEB
STATE LINE. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AS NOTED ON
THE RAP AND NAM PROGS. INSTABILITY PER THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAINS LIMITED AND THIS SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE SHOWERS. THINK THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM WY INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
SEEN ON THE 11Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO WY. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY CAUSING CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN WY. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS GRADUALLY
BEEN DEEPENING ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER WY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
WITH THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING TO AROUND 60.
ADDITIONALLY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING A MODIFIED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THAT THERE WILL BE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSE TO 90 PERCENT. WITH
RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER...MODEL PROGS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER MODEST
ON CAPE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH STEEPER THAN THE MOIST
ADIABAT. THE CONCERN IS THE LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 BULK
SHEER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS. MODELS SHOW THE
COLLOCATION OF THE LOWEST LCL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL SHEER TO BE ALONG
HWY 36 AND TO THE NORTH. SO IF THERE WERE ANY DISCRETE STORMS...
THERE COULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. HOWEVER WITH STORMS
ONGOING UPSTREAM WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WE MAY BE MORE INCLINED TO
HAVE SOME SORT OF MCS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY MID AFTERNOON
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY
END UP BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE WAVE WAITING UNTIL IT REACHES THE MO RIVER TO BEGIN TO CLOSE. SO
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST FORCING TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND AND
EXPECTING MAINLY AN MCS FOR STORM MODE...THINK STORMS WILL MOVE OFF
INTO MO AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POPS DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. SO LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
BEHIND THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING...MAY STILL
SEE SOME POST FRONTAL ELEVATED SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
OVER EAST CENTRAL KS. OTHERWISE THE STACKED CYCLONE EXITS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ALLOWING SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA BY
THE AFTERNOON...00Z GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN TRYING TO LIFT THE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WITH SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR NOW AS BEST FORCING STAYS OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS.
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A SFC LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY EVENING. GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO
ECMWF. STILL A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY WE COULD SEE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOP AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS SURFACE TROF
LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
12Z H85 TEMPS NEAR 28C SUGGEST WE COULD SEE A TASTE OF SUMMER
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. OPTED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...HOWEVER INTERESTING TO
NOTE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS THE WARMEST SCENARIO WITH MIXING UP TO 850
MB TRANSLATING TO THE MIDDLE 90S ON TUES AND WED SO MAY NEED TO
WATCH TO SEE IF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS THIS WAY. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS GAINS CONTROL BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH CLEAR SKIES...AMPLE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HIGHS STEADY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS IS HIGH DUE TO
GOOD CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY IN THE SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA.
CURIOUSLY THE OBJECTIVE MOS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH ONLY VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST CIGS
COULD STAY ABOVE 3KFT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT BROUGHT ANY MVFR CIGS IN
YET AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS. DID BRING SOME
MVFR VSBY INTO THE TERMINALS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. TIMINGS
IS A BEST GUESS BASED OFF OF THE ARW/HRRR/RAP13/NAM CONSENSUS OF
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AROUND 22Z FOR MHK AND 01Z
FOR TOP AND FOE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY...DESPITE LARGE CAPPING ENVIRONMENT...DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE
HAS HELPED TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EXPECT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...REMAINING FAIRLY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...BEFORE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LOSE INTENSITY AND LIFT OUT OF
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
OBSERVATION. PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWED ISOLATED POPS BEGINNING TO LIFT
OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER...DECIDED TO INCLUDE
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 22Z BEFORE
LIFTING TO THE NE. THIS WILL COVER ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY POPPING UP AS WELL AS ANY FUTURE SHOWERS/TS THAT MAY INCUR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DESPITE THE CAPPING IN PLACE. ALSO...WITH
VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH...EXPECT WHAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE PULSY
IN NATURE AND FAIRLY SHORT LIVED.
OTHERWISE...ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE QUITE REASONABLE...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY CRUCIAL UPDATES /OUTSIDE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT/ UNTIL
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. GFS 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS FOR TODAY...20 PERCENT. RADAR MOSAIC STILL
SHOWING AN OCCASIONAL POP UP FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THOUGHTS ARE THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ONLY HELP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE LATER TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. TODAYS
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW STRONG WILL THE RESULTING DEVELOPING
CAP BE AND HOW SOON WILL IT BEGIN TO DAMPEN CONVECTION GENERATED BY
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT THROUGH 18Z TO
21Z. 06Z NAM/10Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION...BUT POSSIBLY SLOW GROWTH OF
CELLS. ALSO...NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT INHIBIT GROWTH ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDER. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS
ADVERTISES A STRONGER CAP...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWERS FROM
FIRING...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. HENSE THE
LOWER POP GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS...SLIGHT VERSUS CHANCE FROM THE NAM
GUIDANCE. THE HRRR SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AFTER ABOUT 15Z OR
16Z...BEING MORE NUMEROUS OR SCATTERED IN NATURE. BUT THE HRRR
USUALLY HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN OUR ORIGINAL SLIGHT POP...ISOLD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
AND ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM
AND RAP SOUNDINGS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS.
NO CHANGES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE ATTM...THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY MIGHT BE A
BETTER DESCRIPTION TO SKY COVER THAN THE CURRENT PC WORDING...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA
WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS ALONG
WITH ISOLD SHOWERS...OR PATCHY SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF FAVORABLE
DIURNAL HEATING CAN BE TAPPED INTO. HOWEVER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY
STRENGTHENING A MID LEVEL CAP AND SHUTTING DOWN CONVECTION FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN MOVES TO OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT SOME RAINFALL.
INCREASE POPS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL...FOLLOWING TRENDS IN
MODELS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR TEMPS JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MODELS BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 50H CLOSED LOW OVER THE WRN
OHIO VALLEY. THE SFC REFLECTION OF THIS CLOSED LOW HAS A CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IN NRN IND WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING MIDDLE KY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO EARLY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
QUICKLY WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON AND TUE IN THE UPPER 70S AND THEN
CLIMBING QUICKLY INTO THE MID 80S FOR WED/THU. WITH THE 50H RIDGE
WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE PLAINS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN
THE ERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF RAIN TO THE AREA ON THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO LATE FRI.
THE PCPN WILL ALSO DROP HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWR 80S FOR FRI. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD
CARRY MOST DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE PCPN FOR
KENTUCKY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S FOR
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS IN MUCH OF THE
VALLEY REGIONS OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THAT POINT...ISOLATED SHOWERS
CURRENTLY ON RADAR HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO AFFECT TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS IS EXPECTED.
SMALL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS PRODUCING THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OFF NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTED CLEARING AS DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES THIS EVENING. FOG WILL THEN SET IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE MOST IMPACTS AT KSME WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LEANED A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTICALLY FOR
KJKL AND KLOZ...THOUGH SOME MVFR VIS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW...FOG WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING...BUT NEXT
SHORTWAVE IS POISED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
227 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY...DESPITE LARGE CAPPING ENVIRONMENT...DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE
HAS HELPED TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EXPECT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...REMAINING FAIRLY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...BEFORE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LOSE INTENSITY AND LIFT OUT OF
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
OBSERVATION. PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWED ISOLATED POPS BEGINNING TO LIFT
OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER...DECIDED TO INCLUDE
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 22Z BEFORE
LIFTING TO THE NE. THIS WILL COVER ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY POPPING UP AS WELL AS ANY FUTURE SHOWERS/TS THAT MAY INCUR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DESPITE THE CAPPING IN PLACE. ALSO...WITH
VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH...EXPECT WHAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE PULSY
IN NATURE AND FAIRLY SHORT LIVED.
OTHERWISE...ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE QUITE REASONABLE...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY CRUCIAL UPDATES /OUTSIDE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT/ UNTIL
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. GFS 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS FOR TODAY...20 PERCENT. RADAR MOSAIC STILL
SHOWING AN OCCASIONAL POP UP FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THOUGHTS ARE THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ONLY HELP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE LATER TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. TODAYS
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW STRONG WILL THE RESULTING DEVELOPING
CAP BE AND HOW SOON WILL IT BEGIN TO DAMPEN CONVECTION GENERATED BY
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT THROUGH 18Z TO
21Z. 06Z NAM/10Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION...BUT POSSIBLY SLOW GROWTH OF
CELLS. ALSO...NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT INHIBIT GROWTH ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDER. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS
ADVERTISES A STRONGER CAP...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWERS FROM
FIRING...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. HENSE THE
LOWER POP GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS...SLIGHT VERSUS CHANCE FROM THE NAM
GUIDANCE. THE HRRR SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AFTER ABOUT 15Z OR
16Z...BEING MORE NUMEROUS OR SCATTERED IN NATURE. BUT THE HRRR
USUALLY HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN OUR ORIGINAL SLIGHT POP...ISOLD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
AND ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM
AND RAP SOUNDINGS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS.
NO CHANGES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE ATTM...THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY MIGHT BE A
BETTER DESCRIPTION TO SKY COVER THAN THE CURRENT PC WORDING...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA
WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS ALONG
WITH ISOLD SHOWERS...OR PATCHY SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF FAVORABLE
DIURNAL HEATING CAN BE TAPPED INTO. HOWEVER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY
STRENGTHENING A MID LEVEL CAP AND SHUTTING DOWN CONVECTION FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN MOVES TO OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT SOME RAINFALL.
INCREASE POPS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL...FOLLOWING TRENDS IN
MODELS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR TEMPS JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPONSOR A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SCOOP UP SOME HIGH PWAT AIR AND SHOVE IT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTION SO WILL NOT
GO HOG WILD WITH RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...KEEPING THEM BELOW
CATEGORICAL RANGES. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF FORCING
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET
ALL HOLD THAT OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. THE GFS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD TEND TO BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES TO OUR NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ANY SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN AGAIN BE ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. A STOUT UPPER
RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS IN MUCH OF THE
VALLEY REGIONS OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THAT POINT...ISOLATED SHOWERS
CURRENTLY ON RADAR HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO AFFECT TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS IS EXPECTED.
SMALL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS PRODUCING THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OFF NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTED CLEARING AS DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES THIS EVENING. FOG WILL THEN SET IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE MOST IMPACTS AT KSME WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LEANED A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTICALLY FOR
KJKL AND KLOZ...THOUGH SOME MVFR VIS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW...FOG WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING...BUT NEXT
SHORTWAVE IS POISED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
751 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. GFS 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS FOR TODAY...20 PERCENT. RADAR MOSAIC STILL
SHOWING AN OCCASIONAL POP UP FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THOUGHTS ARE THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ONLY HELP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE LATER TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. TODAYS
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW STRONG WILL THE RESULTING DEVELOPING
CAP BE AND HOW SOON WILL IT BEGIN TO DAMPEN CONVECTION GENERATED BY
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT THROUGH 18Z TO
21Z. 06Z NAM/10Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION...BUT POSSIBLY SLOW GROWTH OF
CELLS. ALSO...NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT INHIBIT GROWTH ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDER. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS
ADVERTISES A STRONGER CAP...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWERS FROM
FIRING...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. HENSE THE
LOWER POP GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS...SLIGHT VERSUS CHANCE FROM THE NAM
GUIDANCE. THE HRRR SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AFTER ABOUT 15Z OR
16Z...BEING MORE NUMEROUS OR SCATTERED IN NATURE. BUT THE HRRR
USUALLY HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN OUR ORIGINAL SLIGHT POP...ISOLD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
AND ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM
AND RAP SOUNDINGS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS.
NO CHANGES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE ATTM...THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY MIGHT BE A
BETTER DESCRIPTION TO SKY COVER THAN THE CURRENT PC WORDING...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA
WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS ALONG
WITH ISOLD SHOWERS...OR PATCHY SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF FAVORABLE
DIURNAL HEATING CAN BE TAPPED INTO. HOWEVER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY
STRENGTHENING A MID LEVEL CAP AND SHUTTING DOWN CONVECTION FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN MOVES TO OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT SOME RAINFALL.
INCREASE POPS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL...FOLLOWING TRENDS IN
MODELS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR TEMPS JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPONSOR A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SCOOP UP SOME HIGH PWAT AIR AND SHOVE IT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTION SO WILL NOT
GO HOG WILD WITH RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...KEEPING THEM BELOW
CATEGORICAL RANGES. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF FORCING
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET
ALL HOLD THAT OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. THE GFS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD TEND TO BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES TO OUR NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ANY SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN AGAIN BE ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. A STOUT UPPER
RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
DUE TO SOME LIGHT FOG VSBYS MAY START OUT WITHIN MVFR LEVELS DURING
THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF BUT EXPECTING A QUICK REBOUND INTO VFR
TERRITORY...AND FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN...THOUGH FROM ALL APPEARANCES OUR SOUTHWEST
TERMINAL MAY MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE ACTION. RADAR MOSAIC STILL
SHOWING AN OCCASIONAL POP UP FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THOUGHTS ARE THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ONLY HELP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE LATER TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT AMOUNT
OF COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER TERMINALS
WILL SEE ANYTHING WITHIN THE VICINITY OF EACH TERMINAL. BUT ADDED VCSH
TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THE POTENTIAL. BASED ON LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EITHER...BUT
THESE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
333 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS FOR OUR EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOR
NOW...TO INCORPORATE HOURLY TRENDS. BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS...
ALONG WITH ISOLD SHOWERS...OR PATCHY SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY PROPER IF IT CAN TAP INTO FAVORABLE
DIURNAL HEATING. WILL BE LOOKING OVER LATEST RUNS IN MORE DETAIL TO
DETERMINE OF AN INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
UPDATED THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALED THAT THERE SIMPLY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD TRIGGER TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A FAIRLY
LARGE TEMPERATURE DEW POINT GAP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN
FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT THESE HAVE BE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY UPON ENTERING
EASTERN KENTUCKY OR NOT MAKE IT IN HERE AT ALL. THAT BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GREATLY REDUCED THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...ALSO DECIDED TO HAVE
EASTERN KENTUCKY BE PRECIPITATION FREE BY 22 OR 23Z ON SATURDAY.
LASTLY...REMOVED ANY REMAINING OUTDATED WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES...SKY...WINDS...WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST LATER ON IN
THE SHIFT TO REMOVE ANY OUTDATED WORDING AND TO REFRESH THE FORECAST
GRIDS. IF ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES OCCUR WITH THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER...TEMPERATURES...SKY...AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN
PARTICULAR...WILL ISSUE ONE FINAL UPDATE BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT
TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. AS IT STANDS...HAVE INGESTED THE LATEST ESTF DATA
TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT NOTHING MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TS ANDREA MOVING PAST THE REGION...WELL TO
THE EAST AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST. EARLIER...A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERED OVER KENTUCKY/S WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS... ALONG THE VIRGINA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THESE
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...DEW POINTS DOWN
NEAR 60...MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SKY ALSO STARTED TO BREAK UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA. THIS CLEARING LET TEMPERATURES SPIKE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. APPARENTLY...THIS IS STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO POP ANY CONVECTION DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST. THIS AREA
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IN THESE PARTS
BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SUPPORT FOR ANDREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A MINOR WAVE DOES LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA...PASSING
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME MODERATE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT KEYED IN ON THE NAM12
AND HRRR FOR NEAR TERM SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS CLEARING FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND THE WAKE SUBSIDENCE OF ANDREA DEPARTS.
THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A
SMALL THREAT LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT...
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS...
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN BOTH
THE HWO AND THE ZFP. A WEAK SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE TROPICAL STORM
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHAT EVER DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN.
LOADED THE CONSSHORT WINDS AND DEW POINTS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND CONSALL FOR TD/WINDS AND MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. DID
NOT ADD MUCH TERRAIN DIFFERENCE TO THE LOWS DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS STILL AROUND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRIER MAV THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPONSOR A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SCOOP UP SOME HIGH PWAT AIR AND SHOVE IT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTION SO WILL NOT
GO HOG WILD WITH RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...KEEPING THEM BELOW
CATEGORICAL RANGES. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF FORCING
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET
ALL HOLD THAT OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. THE GFS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD TEND TO BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES TO OUR NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ANY SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN AGAIN BE ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. A STOUT UPPER
RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
QUITE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO VSBYS AND LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. BUT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A
BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED ISOLD SHOWER...
PATCHY SPRINKLES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEEL THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE MORE
OPTIMISTIC THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE
MORE OF AN ISSUE FURTHER EAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY
AS SKIES HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON VSBY AT KJKL AS MID LEVEL CIGS MAY NOT OVERSPREAD THERE UNTIL
CLOSER TO DAWN. AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLD
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE
PROGRESSED TOO FAR NORTHEASTWARD TO HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO TAP INTO
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING TO GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. THUS
ONLY MENTIONED VCSH LATER IN THE DAY AT KJKL. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY PROPER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
227 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS FOR OUR EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOR
NOW...TO INCORPORATE HOURLY TRENDS. BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS...
ALONG WITH ISOLD SHOWERS...OR PATCHY SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY PROPER IF IT CAN TAP INTO FAVORABLE
DIURNAL HEATING. WILL BE LOOKING OVER LATEST RUNS IN MORE DETAIL TO
DETERMINE OF AN INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
UPDATED THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALED THAT THERE SIMPLY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD TRIGGER TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A FAIRLY
LARGE TEMPERATURE DEW POINT GAP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN
FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT THESE HAVE BE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY UPON ENTERING
EASTERN KENTUCKY OR NOT MAKE IT IN HERE AT ALL. THAT BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GREATLY REDUCED THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...ALSO DECIDED TO HAVE
EASTERN KENTUCKY BE PRECIPITATION FREE BY 22 OR 23Z ON SATURDAY.
LASTLY...REMOVED ANY REMAINING OUTDATED WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES...SKY...WINDS...WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST LATER ON IN
THE SHIFT TO REMOVE ANY OUTDATED WORDING AND TO REFRESH THE FORECAST
GRIDS. IF ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES OCCUR WITH THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER...TEMPERATURES...SKY...AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN
PARTICULAR...WILL ISSUE ONE FINAL UPDATE BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT
TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. AS IT STANDS...HAVE INGESTED THE LATEST ESTF DATA
TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT NOTHING MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TS ANDREA MOVING PAST THE REGION...WELL TO
THE EAST AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST. EARLIER...A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERED OVER KENTUCKY/S WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS... ALONG THE VIRGINA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THESE
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...DEW POINTS DOWN
NEAR 60...MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SKY ALSO STARTED TO BREAK UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA. THIS CLEARING LET TEMPERATURES SPIKE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. APPARENTLY...THIS IS STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO POP ANY CONVECTION DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST. THIS AREA
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IN THESE PARTS
BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SUPPORT FOR ANDREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A MINOR WAVE DOES LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA...PASSING
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME MODERATE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT KEYED IN ON THE NAM12
AND HRRR FOR NEAR TERM SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS CLEARING FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND THE WAKE SUBSIDENCE OF ANDREA DEPARTS.
THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A
SMALL THREAT LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT...
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS...
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN BOTH
THE HWO AND THE ZFP. A WEAK SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE TROPICAL STORM
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHAT EVER DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN.
LOADED THE CONSSHORT WINDS AND DEW POINTS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND CONSALL FOR TD/WINDS AND MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. DID
NOT ADD MUCH TERRAIN DIFFERENCE TO THE LOWS DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS STILL AROUND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRIER MAV THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
DURING THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT A 500MB TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHOWING CONFINED AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MAKING ITS
WAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
KY...WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STARTING
OFF THE MORNING DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEAR
DURING THE DAY...AND MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES OFF THE EASTERN COAST
IN RELATION TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BOTH FROM THE EAST AND FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...THEY ARE NOT SO SETTLED ON HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE DURING THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE JACKSON AREA BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP BY SUNDAY
EVENING ACCORDING THE THE NAM AND SLIGHTLY LATER FOR THE GFS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE LEADING UP TO
THIS...THOUGH WITH ANY HEATING OR LIFT...WOULD NOT BE UNLIKELY TO
SEE A SOME ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
MAIN LINE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...PICKING
UP IN COVERAGE AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN FROM THE GULF AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A WASH OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
RESULT. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS MARGINALLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS/CONSENSUS. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO PULL OUT TUESDAY AND STRONG RIDGING PATTERN ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO
MOVE IN...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GEM
DRYING OUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN THE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL POTENTIAL RAIN MAKERS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ON EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION ARE LACKING. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW
BEST POTENTIALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
CORRELATION WITH THE BEST HEATING/INSTABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
QUITE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO VSBYS AND LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. BUT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A
BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED ISOLD SHOWER...
PATCHY SPRINKLES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEEL THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE MORE
OPTIMISTIC THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE
MORE OF AN ISSUE FURTHER EAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY
AS SKIES HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON VSBY AT KJKL AS MID LEVEL CIGS MAY NOT OVERSPREAD THERE UNTIL
CLOSER TO DAWN. AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLD
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE
PROGRESSED TOO FAR NORTHEASTWARD TO HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO TAP INTO
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING TO GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. THUS
ONLY MENTIONED VCSH LATER IN THE DAY AT KJKL. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY PROPER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
936 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS ANDREA NEAR CAPE COD
THIS MORNING WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO RACE EASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN
ASSOC WITH THE REMAINS OF ANDREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND THE FLOOD
WATCHES. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
EXITING PCPN.
AREA RIVERS WILL STILL BE ON THE RISE...BUT FLOODING IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED.
WILL INTRODUCE SOME SUNSHINE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS A DRIER NW
WIND ALLOWS FOR DOWNSLOPING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SRN AREAS TO JUMP
AOA 70 DEGREES FOR AN AFTN HIGH TEMP.
PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING REACHING THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UP TO THIS POINT...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL TO OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. LATEST
RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN MASS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN MAINE
THROUGH DAYBREAK. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BY
LATE THIS MORNING WHEN RAIN WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL RIVERS FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE LATER TODAY AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH NO FLOODING OCCURRING
YET WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE.
WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AS SOME SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR LOWER TO MID 70S IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND EAST TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES AT TIMES BUT SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOOKING FOR LOWS OVER NIGHT GENERALLY NEAR 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTH AND RANGING THROUGH THE 70S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NGT WITH WEAK
SFC HIGH AND DRY WX FOR THE FCST AREA. THE UPR LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO
GET PUSHED TO THE E AS AN UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES E THRU THE
MID WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NGT. THIS FORCES A SFC LOW TO TRACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FNT EXTENDING TO THE SE TO THE E
COAST. THIS WX SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHRA NE INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
SW TO NE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NGT. THE UPR LVL SYSTEM CUTS OFF
OVER THE NE INTO CLOSED LOW THAT FORCES THE SFC LOW TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION MONDAY NGT THRU WEDNESDAY NGT
WITH SHRA CONTINUING. THE UPR LVL AND SFC LOWS FINALLY SHIFT TO
THE E ON THURSDAY...BUT SLOW ENOUGH SO THAT SHRA MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY. GENERALLY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF THOUGH IT IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE 00Z GFS DEPARTS FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF BY TRYING TO BRING IN A SECOND UPR LVL
AND SFC SYSTEM TO EXTEND PRCP INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE PREFERRED
ECMWF LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND WARMER DAY. QPF
AMOUNTS MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU THURSDAY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN...OR MORE...PSBL. USED HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5 THEN BLEND OF GMOS AND GFS BEYOND THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
VFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LOWERING TO IFR OR
LOWER IN DEVELOPING SHRA FROM SW TO NE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THEN CONTINUING THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH TODAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WINDS AND GUSTS STAY
BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SE WINDS BACKING TO
E THEN NE WILL GENERATE BUILDING SEAS THAT COULD REACH SCA LEVELS
AROUND 5 OR 6 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE QUICK DEPARTURE OF THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA LATE LAST
NIGHT...WE DRIED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ON THE WAY. THE AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST EVEN W/ THE
BRIEF NWLY FLOW REGIME...THAT IS NOW QUICKLY EXITING AS WELL.
TYPICAL NW FLOW BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...BUT THIS NW FLOW WAS THE RESULT
OF BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING TROPICAL SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
A SYNOPTIC-SCALE HIGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
A DEEPENING IN-SITU TROUGH COMING IN BEHIND ANDREA ALSO HAS A WEAK
EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE CAUGHT IN THE FLOW...NOW OVER THE CAROLINAS/SRN
VA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS WAY UP THE ERN SEABOARD THRU
THE PREDAWN HRS AND INTO THE LATE MRNG. MOST GUIDANCE MEMBERS APPEAR
TO NOT BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL...FROM INITIALIZATION ONWARD.
HRRR GUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE ONLY MEMBER TAKING THESE SEPARATE AREAS
OF PRECIP AND TAKING THEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS.
TWO SEPARATE PRECIP AREAS DEFINE THIS UPPER WAVE...W/ AN AREA OF
GOOD MTN CONVERGENCE CAUSING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN APLCNS
AND ANOTHER BATCH OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER AND MORE SCATTERED RAINFALL
OVER CNTRL/ERN NC...HEADING UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR HAS
CONSISTENTLY TAKEN THE SRN APLCNS PRECIP AND SPREAD IT UP THE
REMAINDER OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF OUR AREA BY
MID-LATE MRNG. THE OTHER NC PRECIP BATCH WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE VA
TIDEWATER AND UP TO LOWER SRN MD ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THOUGH THEY
MAY HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL DURING THIS JOURNEY...STILL ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PRECIP EXPECTED W/ THEM AND A GRADUAL CLEARING
BEHIND IT.
LITTLE CHANGE OF AIRMASS INTO THE AFTN HRS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE
FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER
TODAY...MAINLY THE RESULT OF TERRAIN INTERACTION - SO LOWER PRECIP
CHANCES E OF THE MTNS. HIGHS TOP OUT RIGHT AT THE CLIMO AVERAGES
ACROSS THE CWA. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AFTER THE MRNG
RAIN...W/ SOME MID CLOUD DECKS APPEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE M-U60S...W/
DEWPOINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE L60S...ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING ON SUNDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS
BACK IN THE 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES. THERE ARE SIGNS OF WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING TOO...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER MAIN FOCUS FOR CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON SUNDAY DURING THE BEST
INSTABILITY. GFS SUGGESTS 500-1000 J/KG CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NAM MORE LIKE 1000-1500 J/KG.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY IN A WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HEIGHT FALLS
BEGIN ON MONDAY...AND CWA STARTS TO EXPERIENCE SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
AS WELL. AS SUCH...EXPECT MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION ON MONDAY THAT
MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUE HIGH
END CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.
FLAT RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/FRONT TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG SHELTERED VLYS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
GROUND FOG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AIRPORTS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND IF AN AREA CAN GET CALM CONDITIONS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING TROPICAL SYSTEM HAVE SWITCHED TO
NWLY...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF ACROSS THE AREA TO A LIGHT WLY
AND EVENTUALLY SWLY WIND LATER THIS MRNG. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THRU NOON TODAY...THEN DRYING OUT AND
CLEARING OUT IN LARGE PART THRU THE REST OF THE DAY/NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN
UNDER S/SE WINDS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
LOW /IFR/ CIGS DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MEDIUM ON THIS ATTM. AS A FRONT APPROACHES MORE NUMEROUS
CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR ON MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS DYING DOWN QUICKLY ACROSS THE BAY. NOT LONG AGO...LOW END GALE
GUSTS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER/MIDDLE BAY BUT NOW ONLY A FEW
SCA GUSTS APPEARING. SCA WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY W/ THE QUICK
WIND DISSIPATION AS ANDREA SPEEDS OFF THRU NEW ENGLAND AND AWAY
FROM THE MID ATLC. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE LIGHT TODAY...W/ ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STIFF SLY CHANNELING UP THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE
BAY LATER THIS EVE...BUT SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
S/SE WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL PERHAPS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/BPP
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...GMS/BPP
MARINE...GMS/BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
751 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVER NW IA
DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS ND AND ADJACENT SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER SW CANADA. SHORTWAVE OVER IA
HAS MANAGED TO SWING A BAND OF SHRA N INTO WRN UPPER MI TODAY. SHRA
HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND PROBABLY SOME
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEW ENGLAND. ERN EDGE OF SHRA AREA HAS BATTLED
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS AT THE LOW/MID LEVELS PER 12Z KGRB/KAPX
SOUNDINGS. IT APPEARS SPRINKLES HAVE REACHED AS FAR E AS MEMONINEE
AND DICKINSON COUNTIES TODAY.
WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ERN EDGE OF PCPN BAND FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO DRIER AIR MASS...WILL SHOW A
DIMINISHING POP TREND OVER THE W DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
SPRINKLES MAY GET AS FAR E AS WRN MARQUETTE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...WITH
SHORTWAVE OVER IA DRIFTING ESE INTO IL TONIGHT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS
NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY FORCING FOR PCPN OVER UPPER MI. IN
FACT...PER QVECTORS...MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN
DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING OVER UPPER MI BTWN THE WAVE MOVING
INTO IL AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND THAT WILL
BE MOVING INTO FAR NE MN/NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH
OF THE FCST AREA IN AN AREA OF LITTLE/NO DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT.
SO...FCST TONIGHT WILL RETAIN THE IDEA OF HIGHER POPS OVER THE NW...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD ISLE ROYALE...AND LOW CHC/SCHC POPS ELSEWHERE...
EXCEPT FOR THE E WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT UNDER LINGERING
MID/UPPER RIDGING. A NUMBER OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW REMNANTS
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WRN LWR MI ROTATING NW INTO SCNTRL UPPER
MI THIS EVENING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT DOES HAPPEN.
SHORTWAVE THAT REACHES NE MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD MON. WAVE WILL SUPPORT BETTER PCPN CHANCES ACROSS
WRN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO PORTIONS OF NW UPPER MI MON MORNING.
MUCH OF THE FORCING WITH WAVE WILL THEN SHIFT N AND E OF THE AREA AS
THE AFTN WEARS ON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR AFTN
CONVECTION. NAM SHOWS MLCAPE INCREASING TO 150-500J/KG IN THE AFTN
WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. THE GFS HAS SIMILAR VALUES...BUT ITS INSTABILITY IS CONFINED
TO JUST THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TAIL END
OF DEPARTING DEEP LAYER FORCING STILL SKIRTING THE AREA IN THE
AFTN...AVBL INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR A MENTION OF
SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTN (CHC POPS OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF AND SCHC E). CONVECTION OVER THE W SHOULD BE FURTHER AIDED BY
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. OPTED TO INCLUDE SCHC THUNDER MENTION OVER
THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO
ONTARIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER TEXAS WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS IT IS...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
RIDGING AND A PASSING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TUESDAY. THOUGH THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND/PWATS UP TO 115 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED BY THIS RIDGE OVER LAND. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS PRIMARILY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SO CHANCE POPS ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
COULD POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL 00Z.
AS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. EXPECT MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THE RIDGE BOUNDARY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH. THIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER
MICHIGAN HOWEVER...LIKELY OVER CENTRAL/LOWER WI. THE UPPER LOW THAT
BROUGHT THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH UPPER MI ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION...OVER PRIMARILY ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WITH
RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVER UPPER MI.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET.
WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE ON THURSDAY AND MIXING TO
AROUND 950MB IN MOST LOCATIONS EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. REGIONS CLOSEST TO THE LAKES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES.
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST INCREASES WITH AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
EXPERIENCE FULL DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH...AND WITH BETTER MIXING TO
THE 850MB LEVEL/TEMPS AROUND 12-14C AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CROSS EASTWARD
INTO QUEBEC...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA/DEWPOINTS
NEARING 60F/ AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
ISOLD SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMX AND PERHAPS KIWD INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. E TO SE PREVAILING FLOW SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AT THE LOW-LEVELS...KEEPING CONDITIONS
VFR DESPITE PCPN. WITH RAINFALL WETTING THE GROUND MORE SO AT
KIWD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS/FOG TO FORM TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FROM A DOWNSLOPING SE
DIRECTION...POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL. EARLY MON AFTN...DAYTIME
HEATING MAY BEGIN TO POP A FEW SHRA...ESPECIALLY AROUND KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
AS LOW PRES OVER NW IA DRIFTS E...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND
20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO AROUND
25KT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR W THRU THIS EVENING DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. WITH SOME RAIN FALLING OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
RETURN AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR TUE THRU FRI. MUCH OF
THAT PERIOD WILL SEE WINDS AOB 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
706 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NRN LAKE MI INTO NRN LWR MI. AREA OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI TODAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR W AND CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTN (LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SBCAPE OF 100-200J/KG). TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS DIGGING
INTO THE WRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A W COAST RIDGE. THIS TROF WILL
BRING THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUN.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLD SHRA OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...FCST AREA
TONIGHT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO THE E
OF THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING THRU THE PLAINS. WITH RIDGE PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A TREND TO
MCLEAR SKIES. LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES
GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEGREE TO WHICH JET STREAK IS CAUSING SHORTWAVE TO DIG
INTO THE WRN PLAINS CURRENTLY...MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN WILL LIKELY END UP SW OF HERE SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
EASTERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY TO HAVE A
MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE IN THE WEATHER HERE. MODELS THAT WERE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN RECENT RUNS WITH PCPN DRIVING INTO UPPER MI SUN HAVE
ALL BACKED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN WHICH SUPPORTS THE ABOVE
THINKING. WHILE ONE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE OVER IA SUN...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NE MN...SPREADING
AN ARC OF WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WRN UPPER MI.
WITH ZONE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THAT AREA AS WELL...THIS WAVE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI SUN AFTN. SO...
PLAN FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE IS TO CUT BACK ON PCPN ADVANCEMENT INTO
UPPER MI SUN. WILL KEEP ROUGHLY THE E HALF DRY THRU THE AFTN WITH
HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE W TRENDING TO LIKELY FAR W TOWARD KIWD. WITH
LESS AND LATER PCPN ARRIVAL...BUMPED TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD. IN
THE INTERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. THICKER
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FAR W.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A CONTINUED SLOW MOVING AND MESSY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK BLOCKING DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND
CANADA.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...IT SEEMS THE MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
CHANGING A DECENT AMOUNT FROM DAY TO DAY...WITH THE LAST SUITE
REALLY CUTTING BACK PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE EAST HALF. HAVE CONTINUED
TO USE OF THE GFS AS THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH IT OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE GENERAL PATTERN HAS A WEAK REX
BLOCK...WITH A SHORTWAVE/NEARLY CLOSED LOW TACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO OVER HUDSON BAY. ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SPLIT TO BECOME A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING TROUGH AND AN EASTWARD MOVING
CLOSED LOW. THE LOW WILL TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE CWA TO PROVIDE
ANY GOOD SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL CLIP THE WESTERN CWA WITH DECENT H7 FGEN AND MID-LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO MISS OUT ONCE AGAIN ON
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN. HAVE DROPPED PRECIP WORDING COMPLETELY FROM THE
FAR EAST...AND CUT BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. ONLY
CHANCE OF SEEING A VERY ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WOULD BE NEAR
MENOMINEE...SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER PREVIOUSLY ALONG
THE WI BORDER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
AN INCOMING UPPER JET WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWA. AFTER A WEAK AND ELONGATED UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSH EAST MONDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING ALOFT FOR
THE WEST. WITH NO SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND RECENT RAINFALL...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN AND PATCHY
FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICK THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEPART...SO DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO
DETAILED IN SPECIFIC AREAS. FOR NOW...ADDED WORDING OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE CLEARING LOOKS TO
BE MORE LIKELY. ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO A MORE NW WIND
DIRECTION FOR THE WEST HALF...AND EVENTUALLY THE EAST HALF. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE FORMATION ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL FOR LOCATIONS PRONE TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW.
TUESDAY...WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT ON SECOND GLANCE...A 100KT UPPER JET STREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST OVER UPPER MI SHOULD GIVE SOME SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE LEFT
EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGIONS. EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EXTRA LIFT
UNDER THE JET WILL TAP INTO THE LITTLE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AT THE SFC TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SOME MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A QUICK-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE PICKED UP BY AN ELONGATED
TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. WHILE A BOUT OF MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASSES OVER
UPPER MI ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE LAYER. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO ALL BUT SOME MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WI BORDER SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF THE CWA.
ONCE AGAIN...ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE
TO GENERATE EVEN MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS GIVEN A DEEP DRY LAYER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRY TO
RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH THIS TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. FOR NOW...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD
EXIST TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS A DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...GENERALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. INCLUDED SOME VCSH AT
KIWD AS THE FAR WRN CWA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. THEN...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING E TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN NIGHT
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20KT SUN INTO EARLY MON. COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS UP TO 25KT OVER FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BTWN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND MN N SHORE SUN AFTN/EVENING.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS E...ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE THRU THU...RESULTING IN WINDS UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
407 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NRN LAKE MI INTO NRN LWR MI. AREA OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI TODAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR W AND CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTN (LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SBCAPE OF 100-200J/KG). TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS DIGGING
INTO THE WRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A W COAST RIDGE. THIS TROF WILL
BRING THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUN.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLD SHRA OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...FCST AREA
TONIGHT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO THE E
OF THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING THRU THE PLAINS. WITH RIDGE PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A TREND TO
MCLEAR SKIES. LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES
GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEGREE TO WHICH JET STREAK IS CAUSING SHORTWAVE TO DIG
INTO THE WRN PLAINS CURRENTLY...MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN WILL LIKELY END UP SW OF HERE SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
EASTERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY TO HAVE A
MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE IN THE WEATHER HERE. MODELS THAT WERE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN RECENT RUNS WITH PCPN DRIVING INTO UPPER MI SUN HAVE
ALL BACKED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN WHICH SUPPORTS THE ABOVE
THINKING. WHILE ONE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE OVER IA SUN...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NE MN...SPREADING
AN ARC OF WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WRN UPPER MI.
WITH ZONE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THAT AREA AS WELL...THIS WAVE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI SUN AFTN. SO...
PLAN FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE IS TO CUT BACK ON PCPN ADVANCEMENT INTO
UPPER MI SUN. WILL KEEP ROUGHLY THE E HALF DRY THRU THE AFTN WITH
HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE W TRENDING TO LIKELY FAR W TOWARD KIWD. WITH
LESS AND LATER PCPN ARRIVAL...BUMPED TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD. IN
THE INTERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. THICKER
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FAR W.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A CONTINUED SLOW MOVING AND MESSY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK BLOCKING DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND
CANADA.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...IT SEEMS THE MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
CHANGING A DECENT AMOUNT FROM DAY TO DAY...WITH THE LAST SUITE
REALLY CUTTING BACK PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE EAST HALF. HAVE CONTINUED
TO USE OF THE GFS AS THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH IT OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE GENERAL PATTERN HAS A WEAK REX
BLOCK...WITH A SHORTWAVE/NEARLY CLOSED LOW TACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO OVER HUDSON BAY. ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SPLIT TO BECOME A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING TROUGH AND AN EASTWARD MOVING
CLOSED LOW. THE LOW WILL TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE CWA TO PROVIDE
ANY GOOD SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL CLIP THE WESTERN CWA WITH DECENT H7 FGEN AND MID-LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO MISS OUT ONCE AGAIN ON
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN. HAVE DROPPED PRECIP WORDING COMPLETELY FROM THE
FAR EAST...AND CUT BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. ONLY
CHANCE OF SEEING A VERY ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WOULD BE NEAR
MENOMINEE...SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER PREVIOUSLY ALONG
THE WI BORDER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
AN INCOMING UPPER JET WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWA. AFTER A WEAK AND ELONGATED UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSH EAST MONDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING ALOFT FOR
THE WEST. WITH NO SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND RECENT RAINFALL...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN AND PATCHY
FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICK THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEPART...SO DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO
DETAILED IN SPECIFIC AREAS. FOR NOW...ADDED WORDING OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE CLEARING LOOKS TO
BE MORE LIKELY. ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO A MORE NW WIND
DIRECTION FOR THE WEST HALF...AND EVENTUALLY THE EAST HALF. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE FORMATION ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL FOR LOCATIONS PRONE TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW.
TUESDAY...WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT ON SECOND GLANCE...A 100KT UPPER JET STREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST OVER UPPER MI SHOULD GIVE SOME SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE LEFT
EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGIONS. EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EXTRA LIFT
UNDER THE JET WILL TAP INTO THE LITTLE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AT THE SFC TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SOME MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A QUICK-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE PICKED UP BY AN ELONGATED
TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. WHILE A BOUT OF MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASSES OVER
UPPER MI ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE LAYER. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO ALL BUT SOME MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WI BORDER SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF THE CWA.
ONCE AGAIN...ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE
TO GENERATE EVEN MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS GIVEN A DEEP DRY LAYER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRY TO
RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH THIS TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. FOR NOW...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD
EXIST TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A FEW -SHRA IN THE VCNTY AT KIWD INTO THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. EVEN AT KSAW...MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A SHRA OR TWO IN THE VCNTY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. THEN...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING E TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN NIGHT
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20KT SUN INTO EARLY MON. COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS UP TO 25KT OVER FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BTWN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND MN N SHORE SUN AFTN/EVENING.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS E...ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE THRU THU...RESULTING IN WINDS UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE
GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG ALONG THE W COAST. THERE IS ALSO A
RATHER WEAK UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO...WITH A 1015MB SFC HI CENTERED
OVER WRN LK SUP. A SHRTWV IS DRIFTING SEWD THRU NCENTRAL MN ON THE
SRN FLANK OF THIS RDG. THE INTERACTION BTWN THE DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AND BAND OF H85 FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF 60KT H3 JET
MAX SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV AND MID LVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
/KINX 29/ APPEARS TO BE GENERATING SOME ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE FAR WRN
CWA PER RADAR RETURNS IN THAT AREA. BUT DRYNESS OF LLVLS SHOWN ON
THE LOCAL 00Z RAOBS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY NOT BE
REACHING THE GROUND. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS...THE REST OF THE CWA
TO THE NE IS GENERALLY MOCLR WITH THE DRIER 00Z APX RAOB /KINX 16/
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE W...
A RATHER POTENT SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IN THE
NW FLOW ALF BTWN THE W COAST RDG AND GREAT LKS TROF.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV DRIFTING ESEWD THRU NRN MN.
TODAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W EARLY THIS
MRNG IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E ACRS NRN WI THIS MRNG AND THEN TO THE E
THRU NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO DNVA/HGT RISES OVER UPR MI
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THIS CHAIN OF EVENTS WOULD INDICATE THE -SHRA
NOW OVER THE W WL ALSO DRIFT TO THE E WITH THE SUPPORTING DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH DRYING OVER THE W TAKING HOLD IN ITS WAKE...BULK OF
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE ERN CWA WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE DAY
WITH MORE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT FORM IN THE WEAK LLVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FLAT HI PRES. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR IWD THIS
AFTN FOR T/TD OF 70/44 YIELDS SBCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG WITH KINX OF
27...SO WL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS
INDICATE THE LLVLS OVER THE E WL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN...SO
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. THS SDNGS ALSO SHOW SOME MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE W LATER IN THE AFTN WITH STRENGTHENING MID LVL INVRN
UNDER THE DNVA...SO ANY -SHRA THERE SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER.
MIXING TO H8-85 ON FCST SDNGS AND H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 9C SUPPORT HI
TEMPS REACHING 70 TO 75 AWAY FM LK MODERATION.
TONIGHT...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS TO
THE E OF STRONG SHRTWV NOW IN THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS FCST TO REACH
FAR SW MN BY 12Z SUN. WITH THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND WANING
DAYTIME HEATING...ANY ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
EARLY IN THE EVNG AND GIVE WAY TO MOCLR SKIES. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST
TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE SOME HI CLDS MAY ALSO ARRIVE LATE
TO THE NE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO
REMAIN ON THE SLOWER SIDE AS LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
STAY SOMEWHAT BLOCKY. TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE
LONG TERM BECOMES RE-INFORCED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SLIDES ACROSS CNTRL CONUS TO NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEN AS THIS LEADING TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. MAIN RESULT WOULD
BE TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
PRIMARY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
FOCUSING IN ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS
THERE MAY BE CUTOFF FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER EASTERN CWA.
ECMWF SHOWED THIS ON FRIDAY AND LATEST RUNS OF GFS/GEM-NH/UKMET PICK
UP ON THIS AS WELL. 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AS IT IS
FARTHER EAST AND CLOSED OFF WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY 00Z MONDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO EASTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. ECMWF/GFS
NOW REPRESENTS MIDDLE GROUND WITH EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP AS NAM IS
EASTERN OUTLIER WHILE GEM-NH AND UKMET WOULD BE WESTERN OUTLIERS AS
THEY SHOW LITTLE QPF EVEN INTO CNTRL CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. ECMWF/GFS
INDICATE SWATH OF H85-H7/H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WEST HALF
OF CWA BY 00Z MONDAY WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED MOSTLY INTO
WESTERN CWA ON SSE FLOW ARCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PATTERN
JUST DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH RAIN MAKING IT INTO EASTERN CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPLITS
OVER TIME WITH ONE PIECE OF TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OTHER/STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVING FROM CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. KEPT GENERAL THEME
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WAS MORE STUBBORN TO BRING HIGHER POPS
INTO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SHRA OVER
EAST ON SUNDAY NUDGED TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S THERE BUT KEPT READINGS
OVER FAR SW/WEST IN LOWER 60S DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LIKELY POPS OVER WEST AND CENTRAL STILL SEEM ON TRACK THOUGH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SI/S LESS THAN 0C
PEGGING TSRA OVER DAKOTAS CURRENTLY. SI/S MAINLY STAY ABOVE 0C INTO
UPR MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOLLOWING SREF 3HR PROBS FOR TSRA
DID KEEP SMALL MENTION IN FAR SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECT DECAYING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AS SPLITTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DAMPEN ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER CWA. SOME
INDICATION THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE OR AT LEAST THE TAIL OF WAVE ON
NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND WEAK SFC TROUGH CROSSING AREA MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING SHRA MONDAY AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF INTERIOR. HEADED THAT
WAY FOR POPS...LINGERING SMALL CHANCES OVR MAINLY CNTRL CWA MONDAY
EVENING. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH MID-UPR
60S WHICH IS A BIT BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHER THAN ISOLD
SHRA TUESDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVE AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
THROUGH IN A FLATTER FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER LATER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL ALLOW AREAS JUST
INLAND FROM LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE TO WARM INTO THE LOW EVEN
MID 70S ON TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +10C.
AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVR CNTRL
CONUS...BULGE OF WARM AIR WITH H85 TEMPS OVER +20C SPREADS ACROSS
PLAINS TOWARD MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. SFC WARM FRONT
STAYS TO SOUTH OF UPR LAKES AND H85 WARM FRONT FORECAST TO STAY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. BASED ON H85 JET AND
EDGE OF 1-6KM MUCAPE ALONG WITH H85-H3 THICKNESSES...SEEMS THAT
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. MIGHT
BE CLOSE CALL THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN DURING THE
DAY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH H85 WARM FRONT A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS
MODELS WERE SHOWING EARLIER. JUST IN CASE MODELS JOG BACK NORTH
AGAIN KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE SOUTH CWA. ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPS IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER BUT INLAND AREAS WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE 70S AS LONG AS WARM FRONT SHRA/TSRA DO NOT COME TOO
FAR NORTH.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ON THROUGH BY 12Z THURSDAY RESULTING IN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE SLIPS IN
LATE IN THE DAY BUT WILL REALLY BE LACKING MOISTURE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A POP-UP SHRA OVER INTERIOR...BUT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLD IF IT OCCURS
AT ALL. NORTHERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN
SIMILAR TEMP PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY WITH 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND SOLID
MID 70S INLAND. SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY LEADING TO
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CLOSE THE WEEK. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY STAYS OVR THE PLAINS SO JUST HAVE
CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BETTER
CHANCE OF WARMING INTO THE MID-UPR 70S EVEN OVER NORTH CWA NEAR LK
SUPERIOR. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME OF SEEING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS SINCE THE FEW SUMMER LIKE DAYS WE HAD TO CLOSE THE
MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A FEW -SHRA IN THE VCNTY AT KIWD INTO THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. EVEN AT KSAW...MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A SHRA OR TWO IN THE VCNTY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER IN THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN E-SE WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20 KTS ON SUN INTO MON. AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS SHOULD FALL
BELOW 20 KTS LATER ON MON THRU WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE
GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG ALONG THE W COAST. THERE IS ALSO A
RATHER WEAK UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO...WITH A 1015MB SFC HI CENTERED
OVER WRN LK SUP. A SHRTWV IS DRIFTING SEWD THRU NCENTRAL MN ON THE
SRN FLANK OF THIS RDG. THE INTERACTION BTWN THE DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AND BAND OF H85 FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF 60KT H3 JET
MAX SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV AND MID LVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
/KINX 29/ APPEARS TO BE GENERATING SOME ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE FAR WRN
CWA PER RADAR RETURNS IN THAT AREA. BUT DRYNESS OF LLVLS SHOWN ON
THE LOCAL 00Z RAOBS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY NOT BE
REACHING THE GROUND. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS...THE REST OF THE CWA
TO THE NE IS GENERALLY MOCLR WITH THE DRIER 00Z APX RAOB /KINX 16/
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE W...
A RATHER POTENT SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IN THE
NW FLOW ALF BTWN THE W COAST RDG AND GREAT LKS TROF.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV DRIFTING ESEWD THRU NRN MN.
TODAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W EARLY THIS
MRNG IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E ACRS NRN WI THIS MRNG AND THEN TO THE E
THRU NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO DNVA/HGT RISES OVER UPR MI
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THIS CHAIN OF EVENTS WOULD INDICATE THE -SHRA
NOW OVER THE W WL ALSO DRIFT TO THE E WITH THE SUPPORTING DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH DRYING OVER THE W TAKING HOLD IN ITS WAKE...BULK OF
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE ERN CWA WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE DAY
WITH MORE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT FORM IN THE WEAK LLVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FLAT HI PRES. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR IWD THIS
AFTN FOR T/TD OF 70/44 YIELDS SBCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG WITH KINX OF
27...SO WL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS
INDICATE THE LLVLS OVER THE E WL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN...SO
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. THS SDNGS ALSO SHOW SOME MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE W LATER IN THE AFTN WITH STRENGTHENING MID LVL INVRN
UNDER THE DNVA...SO ANY -SHRA THERE SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER.
MIXING TO H8-85 ON FCST SDNGS AND H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 9C SUPPORT HI
TEMPS REACHING 70 TO 75 AWAY FM LK MODERATION.
TONIGHT...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS TO
THE E OF STRONG SHRTWV NOW IN THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS FCST TO REACH
FAR SW MN BY 12Z SUN. WITH THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND WANING
DAYTIME HEATING...ANY ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
EARLY IN THE EVNG AND GIVE WAY TO MOCLR SKIES. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST
TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE SOME HI CLDS MAY ALSO ARRIVE LATE
TO THE NE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO
REMAIN ON THE SLOWER SIDE AS LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
STAY SOMEWHAT BLOCKY. TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE
LONG TERM BECOMES RE-INFORCED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SLIDES ACROSS CNTRL CONUS TO NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEN AS THIS LEADING TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. MAIN RESULT WOULD
BE TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
PRIMARY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
FOCUSING IN ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS
THERE MAY BE CUTOFF FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER EASTERN CWA.
ECMWF SHOWED THIS ON FRIDAY AND LATEST RUNS OF GFS/GEM-NH/UKMET PICK
UP ON THIS AS WELL. 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AS IT IS
FARTHER EAST AND CLOSED OFF WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY 00Z MONDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO EASTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. ECMWF/GFS
NOW REPRESENTS MIDDLE GROUND WITH EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP AS NAM IS
EASTERN OUTLIER WHILE GEM-NH AND UKMET WOULD BE WESTERN OUTLIERS AS
THEY SHOW LITTLE QPF EVEN INTO CNTRL CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. ECMWF/GFS
INDICATE SWATH OF H85-H7/H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WEST HALF
OF CWA BY 00Z MONDAY WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED MOSTLY INTO
WESTERN CWA ON SSE FLOW ARCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PATTERN
JUST DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH RAIN MAKING IT INTO EASTERN CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPLITS
OVER TIME WITH ONE PIECE OF TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OTHER/STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVING FROM CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. KEPT GENERAL THEME
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WAS MORE STUBBORN TO BRING HIGHER POPS
INTO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SHRA OVER
EAST ON SUNDAY NUDGED TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S THERE BUT KEPT READINGS
OVER FAR SW/WEST IN LOWER 60S DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LIKELY POPS OVER WEST AND CENTRAL STILL SEEM ON TRACK THOUGH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SI/S LESS THAN 0C
PEGGING TSRA OVER DAKOTAS CURRENTLY. SI/S MAINLY STAY ABOVE 0C INTO
UPR MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOLLOWING SREF 3HR PROBS FOR TSRA
DID KEEP SMALL MENTION IN FAR SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECT DECAYING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AS SPLITTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DAMPEN ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER CWA. SOME
INDICATION THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE OR AT LEAST THE TAIL OF WAVE ON
NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND WEAK SFC TROUGH CROSSING AREA MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING SHRA MONDAY AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF INTERIOR. HEADED THAT
WAY FOR POPS...LINGERING SMALL CHANCES OVR MAINLY CNTRL CWA MONDAY
EVENING. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH MID-UPR
60S WHICH IS A BIT BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHER THAN ISOLD
SHRA TUESDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVE AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
THROUGH IN A FLATTER FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER LATER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL ALLOW AREAS JUST
INLAND FROM LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE TO WARM INTO THE LOW EVEN
MID 70S ON TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +10C.
AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVR CNTRL
CONUS...BULGE OF WARM AIR WITH H85 TEMPS OVER +20C SPREADS ACROSS
PLAINS TOWARD MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. SFC WARM FRONT
STAYS TO SOUTH OF UPR LAKES AND H85 WARM FRONT FORECAST TO STAY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. BASED ON H85 JET AND
EDGE OF 1-6KM MUCAPE ALONG WITH H85-H3 THICKNESSES...SEEMS THAT
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. MIGHT
BE CLOSE CALL THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN DURING THE
DAY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH H85 WARM FRONT A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS
MODELS WERE SHOWING EARLIER. JUST IN CASE MODELS JOG BACK NORTH
AGAIN KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE SOUTH CWA. ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPS IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER BUT INLAND AREAS WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE 70S AS LONG AS WARM FRONT SHRA/TSRA DO NOT COME TOO
FAR NORTH.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ON THROUGH BY 12Z THURSDAY RESULTING IN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE SLIPS IN
LATE IN THE DAY BUT WILL REALLY BE LACKING MOISTURE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A POP-UP SHRA OVER INTERIOR...BUT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLD IF IT OCCURS
AT ALL. NORTHERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN
SIMILAR TEMP PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY WITH 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND SOLID
MID 70S INLAND. SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY LEADING TO
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CLOSE THE WEEK. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY STAYS OVR THE PLAINS SO JUST HAVE
CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BETTER
CHANCE OF WARMING INTO THE MID-UPR 70S EVEN OVER NORTH CWA NEAR LK
SUPERIOR. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME OF SEEING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS SINCE THE FEW SUMMER LIKE DAYS WE HAD TO CLOSE THE
MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EVEN THOUGH THERE WL BE PLENTY OF MID CLDS THIS MRNG AND EVEN SOME
-SHRA AT MAINLY IWD AND PERHAPS SAW INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES THIS TAF PERIOD WITH DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS. ALTHOUGH LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK HI PRES LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER IN THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN E-SE WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20 KTS ON SUN INTO MON. AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS SHOULD FALL
BELOW 20 KTS LATER ON MON THRU WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE
GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG ALONG THE W COAST. THERE IS ALSO A
RATHER WEAK UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO...WITH A 1015MB SFC HI CENTERED
OVER WRN LK SUP. A SHRTWV IS DRIFTING SEWD THRU NCENTRAL MN ON THE
SRN FLANK OF THIS RDG. THE INTERACTION BTWN THE DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AND BAND OF H85 FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF 60KT H3 JET
MAX SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV AND MID LVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
/KINX 29/ APPEARS TO BE GENERATING SOME ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE FAR WRN
CWA PER RADAR RETURNS IN THAT AREA. BUT DRYNESS OF LLVLS SHOWN ON
THE LOCAL 00Z RAOBS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY NOT BE
REACHING THE GROUND. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS...THE REST OF THE CWA
TO THE NE IS GENERALLY MOCLR WITH THE DRIER 00Z APX RAOB /KINX 16/
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE W...
A RATHER POTENT SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IN THE
NW FLOW ALF BTWN THE W COAST RDG AND GREAT LKS TROF.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV DRIFTING ESEWD THRU NRN MN.
TODAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W EARLY THIS
MRNG IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E ACRS NRN WI THIS MRNG AND THEN TO THE E
THRU NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO DNVA/HGT RISES OVER UPR MI
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THIS CHAIN OF EVENTS WOULD INDICATE THE -SHRA
NOW OVER THE W WL ALSO DRIFT TO THE E WITH THE SUPPORTING DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH DRYING OVER THE W TAKING HOLD IN ITS WAKE...BULK OF
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE ERN CWA WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE DAY
WITH MORE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT FORM IN THE WEAK LLVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FLAT HI PRES. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR IWD THIS
AFTN FOR T/TD OF 70/44 YIELDS SBCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG WITH KINX OF
27...SO WL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS
INDICATE THE LLVLS OVER THE E WL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN...SO
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. THS SDNGS ALSO SHOW SOME MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE W LATER IN THE AFTN WITH STRENGTHENING MID LVL INVRN
UNDER THE DNVA...SO ANY -SHRA THERE SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER.
MIXING TO H8-85 ON FCST SDNGS AND H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 9C SUPPORT HI
TEMPS REACHING 70 TO 75 AWAY FM LK MODERATION.
TONIGHT...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS TO
THE E OF STRONG SHRTWV NOW IN THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS FCST TO REACH
FAR SW MN BY 12Z SUN. WITH THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND WANING
DAYTIME HEATING...ANY ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
EARLY IN THE EVNG AND GIVE WAY TO MOCLR SKIES. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST
TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE SOME HI CLDS MAY ALSO ARRIVE LATE
TO THE NE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO
REMAIN ON THE SLOWER SIDE AS LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
STAY SOMEWHAT BLOCKY. TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE
LONG TERM BECOMES RE-INFORCED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SLIDES ACROSS CNTRL CONUS TO NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEN AS THIS LEADING TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. MAIN RESULT WOULD
BE TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
PRIMARY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
FOCUSING IN ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS
THERE MAY BE CUTOFF FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER EASTERN CWA.
ECMWF SHOWED THIS ON FRIDAY AND LATEST RUNS OF GFS/GEM-NH/UKMET PICK
UP ON THIS AS WELL. 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AS IT IS
FARTHER EAST AND CLOSED OFF WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY 00Z MONDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO EASTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. ECMWF/GFS
NOW REPRESENTS MIDDLE GROUND WITH EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP AS NAM IS
EASTERN OUTLIER WHILE GEM-NH AND UKMET WOULD BE WESTERN OUTLIERS AS
THEY SHOW LITTLE QPF EVEN INTO CNTRL CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. ECMWF/GFS
INDICATE SWATH OF H85-H7/H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WEST HALF
OF CWA BY 00Z MONDAY WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED MOSTLY INTO
WESTERN CWA ON SSE FLOW ARCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PATTERN
JUST DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH RAIN MAKING IT INTO EASTERN CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPLITS
OVER TIME WITH ONE PIECE OF TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OTHER/STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVING FROM CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. KEPT GENERAL THEME
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WAS MORE STUBBORN TO BRING HIGHER POPS
INTO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SHRA OVER
EAST ON SUNDAY NUDGED TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S THERE BUT KEPT READINGS
OVER FAR SW/WEST IN LOWER 60S DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LIKELY POPS OVER WEST AND CENTRAL STILL SEEM ON TRACK THOUGH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SI/S LESS THAN 0C
PEGGING TSRA OVER DAKOTAS CURRENTLY. SI/S MAINLY STAY ABOVE 0C INTO
UPR MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOLLOWING SREF 3HR PROBS FOR TSRA
DID KEEP SMALL MENTION IN FAR SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECT DECAYING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AS SPLITTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DAMPEN ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER CWA. SOME
INDICATION THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE OR AT LEAST THE TAIL OF WAVE ON
NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND WEAK SFC TROUGH CROSSING AREA MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING SHRA MONDAY AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF INTERIOR. HEADED THAT
WAY FOR POPS...LINGERING SMALL CHANCES OVR MAINLY CNTRL CWA MONDAY
EVENING. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH MID-UPR
60S WHICH IS A BIT BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHER THAN ISOLD
SHRA TUESDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVE AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
THROUGH IN A FLATTER FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER LATER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL ALLOW AREAS JUST
INLAND FROM LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE TO WARM INTO THE LOW EVEN
MID 70S ON TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +10C.
AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVR CNTRL
CONUS...BULGE OF WARM AIR WITH H85 TEMPS OVER +20C SPREADS ACROSS
PLAINS TOWARD MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. SFC WARM FRONT
STAYS TO SOUTH OF UPR LAKES AND H85 WARM FRONT FORECAST TO STAY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. BASED ON H85 JET AND
EDGE OF 1-6KM MUCAPE ALONG WITH H85-H3 THICKNESSES...SEEMS THAT
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. MIGHT
BE CLOSE CALL THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN DURING THE
DAY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH H85 WARM FRONT A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS
MODELS WERE SHOWING EARLIER. JUST IN CASE MODELS JOG BACK NORTH
AGAIN KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE SOUTH CWA. ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPS IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER BUT INLAND AREAS WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE 70S AS LONG AS WARM FRONT SHRA/TSRA DO NOT COME TOO
FAR NORTH.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ON THROUGH BY 12Z THURSDAY RESULTING IN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE SLIPS IN
LATE IN THE DAY BUT WILL REALLY BE LACKING MOISTURE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A POP-UP SHRA OVER INTERIOR...BUT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLD IF IT OCCURS
AT ALL. NORTHERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN
SIMILAR TEMP PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY WITH 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND SOLID
MID 70S INLAND. SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY LEADING TO
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CLOSE THE WEEK. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY STAYS OVR THE PLAINS SO JUST HAVE
CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BETTER
CHANCE OF WARMING INTO THE MID-UPR 70S EVEN OVER NORTH CWA NEAR LK
SUPERIOR. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME OF SEEING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS SINCE THE FEW SUMMER LIKE DAYS WE HAD TO CLOSE THE
MONTH OF MAY. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST NEAR KIWD. ALTHOUGH LAKE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER IN THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN E-SE WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20 KTS ON SUN INTO MON. AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS SHOULD FALL
BELOW 20 KTS LATER ON MON THRU WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
620 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR -DZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT AT BRD FIRST...THEN HIB...DLH...HYR AND INL.
WILL LIKELY SEE IFR FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF
LIFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGH-END MVFR CIGS BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW - MONDAY/
THE FOCUS IS ON THE WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HOW THAT WILL CONTINUE AND LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT I
HAVE AND CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS
FAR TIMING OF THE PCPN THROUGH THIS EVENING GOES SINCE THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL.
AT 300PM/2000Z...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NEW YORK INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED NEAR NW IOWA...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. A TROUGH BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE SASKATCHEWAN
LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO THE IOWA LOW. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WAS SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE IOWA LOW AND THE
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE WERE EASTERLY WINDS OF 5
TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE SE AND FAR N FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S DUE TO THE RAIN AND
COOL WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LOW IN NW IOWA WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT....WHILE THE TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
TROUGH. THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GENERALLY
LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
NEGLIGIBLE LATER TONIGHT...MAKING FOG LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND. THIS
HELP KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHLAND DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NW FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD BE
RELATED TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. I HAVE
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. I RAISED THE
FORECAST IN SOME AREAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT I THINK IT COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF THE NORTHLAND
GETS ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. I SIDED A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE MAY BE MORNING FOG AND
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW WELL IT CLEARS CONSIDERING LITTLE WIND TO
HELP MIX IT OUT. HOWEVER...IT AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHLAND
WILL FINALLY GET SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER FOR SUCH A LONG TIME.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE A
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE A SHORT WAVE WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SWEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY PROFILES WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PWATS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO NRN
ZONES...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND GONE WITH A DRY FCST OR JUST
MENTION OF SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT A H50 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES IN EXTENDED LOOK TO TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. HAVE KEPT A
DRY FCST WED/THURS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON. IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH FOG AND -DZ WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
/INCLUDING KHYR/ WHERE CIGS MAINLY IN THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORY WILL
BE FOUND. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WISCONSIN WITH
LOWER VSBYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 71 53 76 / 70 20 10 10
INL 50 72 53 75 / 70 20 40 10
BRD 51 75 56 79 / 30 10 10 10
HYR 55 77 55 80 / 60 20 10 10
ASX 51 71 50 76 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
347 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MN HOLDS...AND IF IT CONTINUES
THE TREND OF DRIER MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM...KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IA/MN THRU 6Z. COMPLEX OF
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACROSS FAR SW MN HAS ERODED SOME OF THE DRIER AIR
THRU THE EARLY AFTN TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HOLD ONTO LIKELY FOR
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL AFT 3Z/09...AND MOST
LIKELY AFT 6-9Z BASED ON THE LATEST RAP TRENDS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NE OF MPX
FA...THE SFC LOW HAS WEAKENED COMPARED TO SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
AGO...AND IS MORE IN LINE OF THE EC THAT HAD THE SFC/UPPER LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA A FEW DAYS AGO ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND TSRA CHC/S
TO A MINIMUM...OR UNTIL AFT 18Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR FAR EASTERN MN/WC WI. DUE TO THE SLOWER AND
WEAKER SOLUTION OF THIS WX SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION AMTS MAY BE
LOWER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
UPPER LOW AFFECTING MN/WI TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND STILL BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH TROUGH
AXIS STILL ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MONDAY MORNING. 12Z DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM40...GEM AND ECMWF...KEEP A VERY WEAK
GRADIENT ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT THE WESTERNMOST
COUNTIES. 15Z SREF ALSO SUGGESTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. WITH RAIN FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING...THINK THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE WITH LITTLE REASON FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR ON
MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPMENT...WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NOT REALLY HAPPENING
UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON MONDAY.
ONCE THE LOW DRIFTS BY...SYSTEMS BEGIN ARRIVING AT A FASTER PACE.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN LATER ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER.
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LONGEST PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HAVE LOWER 50S
FOR NOW BUT COULD IMAGINE SEEING SOME UPPER 40S. THERE IS SOME HINT
A WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS MN TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
RIDGE REACHING THE DAKOTAS. BUT THIS SHOULD JUST PRODUCE SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CLOUDS...WILL STICK WITH 50S FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR UPPER RIDGE TO BE OVER WESTERN MN IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT IT IS RATHER FLAT. A PAIR OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRST ONE
WILL DAMPEN BUT THE SECOND ONE ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH. BUT MN/WI SHOULD STILL BE IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS AS MAIN LOW TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
INDIANA. DOES NOT REALLY LOOK LIKE A SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT FOR
OUR AREA.
TROUGH DEPARTS WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES. ECMWF...GEM AND GFS GENERALLY BRING IT OVER MN/WI
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING
FLATTENED AS LEAD SHORT WAVE FROM NEXT DEEP WESTERN TROUGH MOVES IN.
THUS WILL HAVE MORE POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR SW WHERE -SHRA HAD
DEVELOPED NEAR CANBY/GRANITE FALLS/REDWOOD FALLS AND WINDOM PRIOR
TO 17Z. REGIONAL RADAR HAS NOTED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW IOWA. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHRA
AFT 6Z. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUED THE DRIER AIR ABV 85H
IN CENTRAL/EC MN UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...SO HAVE TRENDED WITH VFR
CONDS UNTIL AFT 3Z...WILL THE EXCEPTION OF RWF. ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS CONDS WILL DETERIORATE WITH IFR OR LIFR
LIKELY AFT 9Z-15Z...WITH CIGS SLOWLY RISING SUNDAY AFTN...BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR. WINDS WILL HOLD THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD
FROM THE E/SE AND INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. LLWS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND THE DIRECTIONAL TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1KM.
KMSP...
HELD OFF ON MVFR CIGS UNTIL AFT 6Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR OR
POSSIBLY LIFR AFT 9Z AS SHRA/+SHRA DEVELOP. TSRA CHC/S REMAIN TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS...BUT THE BEST CHC OF TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT 9Z
WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTN IF ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE...THEN
BECOME MORE E/ESE TONIGHT AND INCREASING...AFT 15Z... SFC LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DECREASE SOME BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NE/N BY SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN EVE...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH OCNL SHRA DIMINISHING. WND BCMG N 5 KT.
MON...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...VFR BY AFTN. WND NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND LGT/VAR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
210 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MN HOLDS...AND CONTINUES THE
DRIER MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IA/MN THRU 6Z. COMPLEX OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
ACROSS FAR SW MN HAS ERODED SOME OF THE DRIER AIR THRU THE EARLY
AFTN TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HOLD ONTO LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL AFT 3Z/09...AND MOST LIKELY
AFT 6-9Z BASED ON THE LATEST RAP TRENDS. IN ADDITION TO THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NE OF MPX FA...THE SFC
LOW HAS WEAKENED COMPARED TO SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AGO...AND MORE IN
LINE OF EC THAT HAD THE SFC/UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA A FEW
DAYS AGO ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND TSRA CHC/S TO A MINIMAL...OR
UNTIL AFT 18Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
FOR FAR EASTERN MN/WC WI. DUE TO THE SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION OF
THIS WX SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION AMTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WILL BE JUST ABOUT OCCLUDED
BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM NRN IL NWD TO CENTRAL WI
AND WWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS ARC WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT A COLD POCKET OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL FACILITATE
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE VORT MAX
OVERHEAD WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ALL DAY. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY LOCALLY. GIVEN THE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF GREATER
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET OFF ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS...AND MAY LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO THAT TRANSPIRED WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ALL
DAY RAINS. MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 10 KTS COULD ALSO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE LOW SINKING SOUTHEAST SHOULD END THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING
IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S.
RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THICKNESSES OFF
THE GFS/EURO RISE TOWARD 580 DAM OVER SWRN MN...NORMALLY
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...925 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND +20C SO HIGHS SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE
LOWER 80S. THE RELATIVELY COOL 925 MB TEMPS AND WARM THICKNESSES
ALSO INDICATE STRONG CAPPING...THUS A DRY FORECAST.
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE BUILDING PLAINS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES...BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST RISK AREA WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR SW WHERE -SHRA HAD
DEVELOPED NEAR CANBY/GRANITE FALLS/REDWOOD FALLS AND WINDOM PRIOR
TO 17Z. REGIONAL RADAR HAS NOTED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW IOWA. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHRA
AFT 6Z. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUED THE DRIER AIR ABV 85H
IN CENTRAL/EC MN UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...SO HAVE TRENDED WITH VFR
CONDS UNTIL AFT 3Z...WILL THE EXCEPTION OF RWF. ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS CONDS WILL DETERIORATE WITH IFR OR LIFR
LIKELY AFT 9Z-15Z...WITH CIGS SLOWLY RISING SUNDAY AFTN...BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR. WINDS WILL HOLD THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD
FROM THE E/SE AND INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. LLWS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND THE DIRECTIONAL TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1KM.
KMSP...
HELD OFF ON MVFR CIGS UNTIL AFT 6Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR OR
POSSIBLY LIFR AFT 9Z AS SHRA/+SHRA DEVELOP. TSRA CHC/S REMAIN TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS...BUT THE BEST CHC OF TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT 9Z
WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTN IF ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE...THEN
BECOME MORE E/ESE TONIGHT AND INCREASING...AFT 15Z... SFC LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DECREASE SOME BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NE/N BY SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN EVE...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH OCNL SHRA DIMINISHING. WND BCMG N 5 KT.
MON...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...VFR BY AFTN. WND NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND LGT/VAR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LONG RANGE 0.5 REFLECTIVITY INDICATING FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SODAK. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING INTO EASTERN SODAK BY
SUN/00Z TIME FRAME. USED HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAINLY NON-TSTORM
RAIN SHIELD OVER WESTERN THIRD OF CWA FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING
HOURS. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER INITIATION
ACROSS THIS REGION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS40 AND EUROPEAN
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN MOVEMENT OF EVENTUAL STACKED 50H AND SURFACE
SYSTEM BY SUN/12Z. DIFFERENCE BEING A SLIGHT DIP SOUTH OVER NW IA
WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SFC ELEMENT VS GFS40`S SLIGHTLY DEEPER
SOLUTION OVER SW MN. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LARGE
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEST OF A
LINE FROM KAXN TO FAIRMONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. USED GFS40 ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS TO PROG TIMING AND POSITION
OF CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FORWARD PROGRESSION OF
CONVECTION OVER REMAINDER OF FA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
REDWOOD FALLS TO RED WING. THIS WAS BASED ON BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IF
THIS PANS OUT...COULD EASILY SEE A SOLID INCH OF MOISTURE OVER
THIS AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA WHICH COULD INCUR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN CURRENTLY PROGGED IS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. TRIMMED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT
FOR BOTH INCREASING THICKNESS OF CLOUD DECK...AND DEVELOPING
MOISTURE PATTERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WILL BE JUST ABOUT OCCLUDED
BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM NRN IL NWD TO CENTRAL WI
AND WWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS ARC WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT A COLD POCKET OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL FACILITATE
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE VORT MAX
OVERHEAD WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ALL DAY. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY LOCALLY. GIVEN THE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF GREATER
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET OFF ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS...AND MAY LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO THAT TRANSPIRED WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ALL
DAY RAINS. MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 10 KTS COULD ALSO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE LOW SINKING SOUTHEAST SHOULD END THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING
IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S.
RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THICKNESSES OFF
THE GFS/EURO RISE TOWARD 580 DAM OVER SWRN MN...NORMALLY
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...925 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND +20C SO HIGHS SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE
LOWER 80S. THE RELATIVELY COOL 925 MB TEMPS AND WARM THICKNESSES
ALSO INDICATE STRONG CAPPING...THUS A DRY FORECAST.
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE BUILDING PLAINS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES...BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST RISK AREA WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR SW WHERE -SHRA HAD
DEVELOPED NEAR CANBY/GRANITE FALLS/REDWOOD FALLS AND WINDOM PRIOR
TO 17Z. REGIONAL RADAR HAS NOTED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW IOWA. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHRA
AFT 6Z. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUED THE DRIER AIR ABV 85H
IN CENTRAL/EC MN UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...SO HAVE TRENDED WITH VFR
CONDS UNTIL AFT 3Z...WILL THE EXCEPTION OF RWF. ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS CONDS WILL DETERIORATE WITH IFR OR LIFR
LIKELY AFT 9Z-15Z...WITH CIGS SLOWLY RISING SUNDAY AFTN...BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR. WINDS WILL HOLD THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD
FROM THE E/SE AND INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. LLWS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND THE DIRECTIONAL TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1KM.
KMSP...
HELD OFF ON MVFR CIGS UNTIL AFT 6Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR OR
POSSIBLY LIFR AFT 9Z AS SHRA/+SHRA DEVELOP. TSRA CHC/S REMAIN TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS...BUT THE BEST CHC OF TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT 9Z
WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTN IF ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE...THEN
BECOME MORE E/ESE TONIGHT AND INCREASING...AFT 15Z... SFC LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DECREASE SOME BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NE/N BY SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN EVE...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH OCNL SHRA DIMINISHING. WND BCMG N 5 KT.
MON...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...VFR BY AFTN. WND NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND LGT/VAR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LONG RANGE 0.5 REFLECTIVITY INDICATING FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SODAK. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING INTO EASTERN SODAK BY
SUN/00Z TIME FRAME. USED HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAINLY NON-TSTORM
RAIN SHIELD OVER WESTERN THIRD OF CWA FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING
HOURS. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER INITIATION
ACROSS THIS REGION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS40 AND EUROPEAN
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN MOVEMENT OF EVENTUAL STACKED 50H AND SURFACE
SYSTEM BY SUN/12Z. DIFFERENCE BEING A SLIGHT DIP SOUTH OVER NW IA
WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SFC ELEMENT VS GFS40`S SLIGHTLY DEEPER
SOLUTION OVER SW MN. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LARGE
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEST OF A
LINE FROM KAXN TO FAIRMONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. USED GFS40 ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS TO PROG TIMING AND POSITION
OF CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FORWARD PROGRESSION OF
CONVECTION OVER REMAINDER OF FA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
REDWOOD FALLS TO RED WING. THIS WAS BASED ON BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IF
THIS PANS OUT...COULD EASILY SEE A SOLID INCH OF MOISTURE OVER
THIS AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA WHICH COULD INCUR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN CURRENTLY PROGGED IS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. TRIMMED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT
FOR BOTH INCREASING THICKNESS OF CLOUD DECK...AND DEVELOPING
MOISTURE PATTERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WILL BE JUST ABOUT OCCLUDED
BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM NRN IL NWD TO CENTRAL WI
AND WWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS ARC WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT A COLD POCKET OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL FACILITATE
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE VORT MAX
OVERHEAD WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ALL DAY. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY LOCALLY. GIVEN THE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF GREATER
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET OFF ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS...AND MAY LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO THAT TRANSPIRED WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ALL
DAY RAINS. MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 10 KTS COULD ALSO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE LOW SINKING SOUTHEAST SHOULD END THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING. INVERTED
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING
IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S.
RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THICKNESSES OFF
THE GFS/EURO RISE TOWARD 580 DAM OVER SWRN MN...NORMALLY
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...925 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND +20C SO HIGHS SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE
LOWER 80S. THE RELATIVELY COOL 925 MB TEMPS AND WARM THICKNESSES
ALSO INDICATE STRONG CAPPING...THUS A DRY FORECAST.
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE BUILDING PLAINS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES...BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST RISK AREA WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON. BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
MORNING ACROSS FAR SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK
NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY...IMPACTING RWF FIRST AND MSP/STC/RNH
THIS EVENING. PERIOD OF MODERATE/HVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN ADVANCES IN FROM THE SOUTH. BEST
ESTIMATE OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS BETWEEN 08-14Z WITH THUNDER ALSO
POSSIBLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH OCNL TSRA DIMINISHING BY EVENING. WIND
BCMG N 5 KT.
MON...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...VFR BY AFTERNOON. WIND NW 5-10
KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND LGT/VAR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LONG RANGE 0.5 REFLECTIVITY INDICATING FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SODAK. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING INTO EASTERN SODAK BY
SUN/00Z TIME FRAME. USED HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAINLY NON-TSTORM
RAIN SHIELD OVER WESTERN THIRD OF CWA FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING
HOURS. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER INITIATION
ACROSS THIS REGION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS40 AND EUROPEAN
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN MOVEMENT OF EVENTUAL STACKED 50H AND SURFACE
SYSTEM BY SUN/12Z. DIFFERENCE BEING A SLIGHT DIP SOUTH OVER NW IA
WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SFC ELEMENT VS GFS40`S SLIGHTLY DEEPER
SOLUTION OVER SW MN. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LARGE
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEST OF A
LINE FROM KAXN TO FAIRMONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. USED GFS40 ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS TO PROG TIMING AND POSITION
OF CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FORWARD PROGRESSION OF
CONVECTION OVER REMAINDER OF FA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
REDWOOD FALLS TO RED WING. THIS WAS BASED ON BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IF
THIS PANS OUT...COULD EASILY SEE A SOLID INCH OF MOISTURE OVER
THIS AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA WHICH COULD INCUR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN CURRENTLY PROGGED IS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. TRIMMED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT
FOR BOTH INCREASING THICKNESS OF CLOUD DECK...AND DEVELOPING
MOISTURE PATTERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WILL BE JUST ABOUT OCCLUDED
BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM NRN IL NWD TO CENTRAL WI
AND WWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS ARC WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT A COLD POCKET OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL FACILITATE
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE VORT MAX
OVERHEAD WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ALL DAY. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY LOCALLY. GIVEN THE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF GREATER
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET OFF ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS...AND MAY LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO THAT TRANSPIRED WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ALL
DAY RAINS. MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 10 KTS COULD ALSO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE LOW SINKING SOUTHEAST SHOULD END THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING. INVERTED
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING
IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S.
RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THICKNESSES OFF
THE GFS/EURO RISE TOWARD 580 DAM OVER SWRN MN...NORMALLY
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...925 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND +20C SO HIGHS SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE
LOWER 80S. THE RELATIVELY COOL 925 MB TEMPS AND WARM THICKNESSES
ALSO INDICATE STRONG CAPPING...THUS A DRY FORECAST.
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE BUILDING PLAINS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES...BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST RISK AREA WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE 00Z DISCUSSION.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING... BUT THEY WERE VFR ANYWAY SO THE
IMPACTS OF THE EARLIER SCATTERING OUT WERE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS... WITH CONDITIONS
STARTING TO DETERIORATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WORKS INTO THE REGION AND HELPS DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MINNESOTA AND IOWA. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT VARIED IN HOW THINGS WILL SHAPE UP
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE WIDESPREAD/STEADY PCPN
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE. PRIOR TO THAT... IT STILL
APPEARS A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH IT IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
WHERE/WHEN THAT WILL OCCUR SO CONTINUED TO STICK WITH VCSH OR MOST
OF THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. FOR THE LATER MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER
CEILINGS AND PCPN... HIT THINGS HARDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE AREA... WHERE MORE OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT...
AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
KMSP...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF PCPN ON SATURDAY AND THE EVENTUAL MVFR CEILINGS. AT
THIS POINT THINGS COULD EASILY VARY BY SEVERAL HOURS FROM WHAT IS
FORECAST... AND CEILINGS COULD ALSO WIND UP BEING 1+K FT
ABOVE/BELOW WHAT IS SUGGESTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE SATURDAY OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH SOME LLWS A
POSSIBILITY IF THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW... SO THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH SHRA/TSRA...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF
SHRA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KT.
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY. NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 5 KT
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
850 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Generally quiet and benign conditions expected
overnight. The exception to this picture, as was the case last
night, is weak short wave energy moving along the Canadian border
and additional short wave energy over portions of southwest Montana.
An isolated thunderstorm is possible over these areas. HRRR analysis
suggests this activity should end by 07z. Temperatures look
reasonable but have tweaked lows for Great Falls and Lewistown.
Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 2350Z.
VFR conditions will continue across north central/central/southwest
Montana at least through Monday. Weak disturbances moving east along
the Canadian border and across far southwest Montana will keep areas
of mid level cloudiness with isolated showers/thunderstorms in those
areas through around 03Z. However, there is only a low possibility
that storms will directly impact the nearby terminals of KCTB/KHVR
in the north and KBZN in the south. Otherwise, breezy and gusty
northwesterly winds will diminish through 03Z, as skies become
mostly clear. The airmass becomes weakly unstable again across
southwest Montana after 18Z Monday, for a slightly better chance
that isolated thunderstorms may impact the KBZN terminal. Coulston
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 256 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2013
Tonight through Tuesday...Generally quiet but breezy weather will
continue this evening. However, once again this evening, there
will be a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm at opposite
ends of the CWA: near the Canadian border and near Yellowstone
Park. On Monday, an upper level wave will move through the Great
Basin with flow aloft over the CWA backing around to the southwest
by evening. The airmass also becomes unstable over far southwest
Montana during the afternoon and evening with scattered
thunderstorms developing over the mountains. This convection
will move to the northeast into central Montana overnight and
expand in coverage. There is also some indication that a mesoscale
complex could form over central Montana during the overnight
hours. Showers and thunderstorms become likely across much of the
forecast area on Tuesday. From Tuesday evening through Wednesday
afternoon there is some risk that a few thunderstorms may become
strong to borderline severe with gusty winds being the main
threat. mpj
Tuesday night through Sunday...a rather unsettled weather pattern
will reside over the region from much of the second half of the work
week. A rather strong upper level disturbance is expected to develop
over Central MT early Tue evening. Some of the storms could be on
the strong side Tue evening. Thus pops have been raised for a good
portion of North Central MT. Another round of storms will affect the
region Wednesday into Thursday ahead the main cold front and upper
level trof. Expect the precipitation to become a bit more widespread
by Thursday over North Central MT. This heavier precip later in the
week will slow down the rivers receding in Hill and Blaine
counties. Colder air will move into the region by Thursday
night...thus snow levels will be lowering into the 6500 to 7500 feet
range. Expect some snow at higher elevations by Friday morning...but
any snow accumulations should be minor. For Saturday...expect drier
near seasonable temperatures to move back into the region. By next
Sunday...a southwesterly flow develop aloft resulting in a chance
for afternoon thunderstorms over Central and Southwest MT by late in
the day. Brusda
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Small streams and creeks remain high and out of their banks across a
large portion of Central and North Central Montana. Areal flood
warnings will continue for Hill/Blaine/Fergus Counties. Point flood
warnings remain in effect for three locations: Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
These points are expected to remain near or above flood stage into
at least the early part of this week. The potential exists Tuesday
for significant rain over areas currently under flood warnings.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 74 48 72 / 0 0 30 40
CTB 41 71 44 70 / 10 10 10 40
HLN 49 79 50 77 / 0 10 30 40
BZN 45 81 47 77 / 10 20 30 50
WEY 42 78 41 71 / 20 30 30 40
DLN 48 82 49 76 / 0 30 40 50
HVR 46 74 49 72 / 10 0 20 50
LWT 46 72 48 69 / 0 0 40 70
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning through Monday morning for Blaine, Fergus, and Hill
Counties.
Flood Warning until further notice for Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1044 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. An upper trof continues to push across eastern
Montana this evening. The airmass remains the most unstable across
the east with decent CAPE values and available moisture. The result
has been scattered thunderstorms moving along the Hi-Line and across
portions of North Central and eastern Montana. Latest RUC analysis
indicates convective activity should end by 08z. Temperatures look
reasonable. Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 0444Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds will
increase overnight across the eastern part of the area. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a line east of KHVR
and KLWT. Most shower activity should remain to to the east of these
sites so will not use VCTS or -TSRA however some development could
create brief TS near KHVR and KLWT. Drying conditions should develop
by 12Z. Suk
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2013
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather during the period will
be associated with a weather disturbance aloft which will move
southeast across Montana tonight. The better lift and moisture
will be over the plains and associated mountains while southwest
Montana will see little if any lift and little moisture. Will thus
continue with the idea of the highest chances of precipitation
near the Canadian border and the lowest over far southwest
Montana. As far as the threat of stronger thunderstorms for this
evening goes will restrict the threat to northcentral Montana where
there will be the best combination of lift and instability. At this
time think any hail that develops will be less than a half-inch
and any wind gusts less than 50 mph. For Saturday and Sunday
expect a dry period as an upper ridge moves into the Pacific
Northwest Saturday and through the forecast area on Sunday. The
only possible exception will be over the far north where there
will be some moisture Saturday into Saturday night. However the
airmass will be stable so any precipitation that does develop will
be light. Blank
Sunday night through Friday...High pressure ridge dominating factor
early in the forecast period. Current models show energy moving in
from the west mostly being steered to the north and around Montana.
Exception is one small weather system that will try to slip under
the ridge clipping southwest Montana Monday night and Tuesday. Next
Pacific low pressure trough starts to push inland on Wednesday. At
this time...appears this system will maintain enough structure and
strength to move through north central and southwest Montana
Wednesday night and Thursday. Models have some differences in
tracking of trough with GFS moving it through more quickly and
putting the best chance for precipitation over north central
Montana. ECMWF is trending slower and while core of precipitation
with this model is also north, it also indicates a chance of some
rain over southwest Montana. Thunderstorms a definite possibility
during the afternoon and evening hours during the period.
Temperatures throughout the period will generally be near to
slightly above seasonal averages.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Small streams and creeks remain high and out of their banks across a
large portion of central and north central Montana. Areal flood
warnings will continue for Hill/Blaine/Fergus Counties. Point flood
warnings remain in effect for three locations: Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
These points are expected to remain near or above flood stage into
next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fall over the
flooded areas tonight...but precipitation should be light and
should not significantly affect runoff.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 49 72 46 78 / 20 10 10 0
CTB 49 71 44 75 / 50 10 10 0
HLN 53 76 48 82 / 20 0 0 0
BZN 46 75 42 82 / 20 0 0 0
WEY 39 71 36 75 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 46 75 44 82 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 53 72 48 77 / 60 10 10 0
LWT 49 68 44 74 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning through Monday morning for Blaine, Fergus, and Hill
Counties.
Flood Warning until further notice for Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WE SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR TSRA.
HAVE INCLUDED THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
KERN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
DROPPING SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MORNING ACTIVITY. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSIAC SHOWS THE ACTIVITY BECOMING MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
THE WEST WHICH LEADS TO SOME POSSIBILTY OF BREAKING OUT OF THE
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF
500MB HEIGHT FALLS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING WHICH WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROVIDING AREA FOR BROAD ASCENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE BIG CONDITION FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS CURRENT CLOUD COVER LIMITING SFC
HEATING. IF WE ARE ABLE TO BREAK OUT...WE DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS THE LATEST RAP/HRRR INDICATE. LOW LEVEL MOSIT ADVECTION AND AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING MAY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN.
KERN
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB
A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 125 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND
50 METERS AT 500 MB WERE NOTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN DOWN INTO MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS
TAKING PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB...ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS
INITIALIZED 850 MB MOISTURE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN REALITY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BELIEVE THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW GENERALLY 25-35
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND BL CAPE VALUES UP TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES...
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE INCREASING. SO STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING PCPN. 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED
850 MB DEWPOINTS REACHING 10-13 DEGREES C BY EVENING. NAM WAS
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...BUT BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY EVENING. DID NOT GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY
AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID MENTION HEAVY RAIN. DAY SHIFT CAN LOOK AT
THAT MORE LATER.
CURRENT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OUR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP EWD/SEWD
THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HEATING AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER OR MID 70S. FARTHER SOUTH...LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS COULD REACH AROUND 80.
STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY
DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS AND QPF A LITTLE FOR AREAS
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OMAHA. PCPN IS NOT LIKELY TO LINGER MUCH PAST
7 PM...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY INTO FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LEFT BOTH DAY
PERIODS DRY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. BEST BET FOR STORMS IN
THAT PERIOD WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 80S AND
LOWER 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MILLER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1021 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
DROPPING SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MORNING ACTIVITY. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSIAC SHOWS THE ACTIVITY BECOMING MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
THE WEST WHICH LEADS TO SOME POSSIBILTY OF BREAKING OUT OF THE
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF
500MB HEIGHT FALLS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING WHICH WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROVIDING AREA FOR BROAD ASCENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE BIG CONDITION FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS CURRENT CLOUD COVER LIMITING SFC
HEATING. IF WE ARE ABLE TO BREAK OUT...WE DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS THE LATEST RAP/HRRR INDICATE. LOW LEVEL MOSIT ADVECTION AND AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING MAY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN.
KERN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...OTHWERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB
.A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 125 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND
50 METERS AT 500 MB WERE NOTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN DOWN INTO MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS
TAKING PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB...ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS
INITIALIZED 850 MB MOISTURE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN REALITY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BELIEVE THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW GENERALLY 25-35
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND BL CAPE VALUES UP TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES...
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE INCREASING. SO STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING PCPN. 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED
850 MB DEWPOINTS REACHING 10-13 DEGREES C BY EVENING. NAM WAS
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...BUT BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY EVENING. DID NOT GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY
AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID MENTION HEAVY RAIN. DAY SHIFT CAN LOOK AT
THAT MORE LATER.
CURRENT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OUR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP EWD/SEWD
THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HEATING AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER OR MID 70S. FARTHER SOUTH...LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS COULD REACH AROUND 80.
STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY
DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS AND QPF A LITTLE FOR AREAS
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OMAHA. PCPN IS NOT LIKELY TO LINGER MUCH PAST
7 PM...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY INTO FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LEFT BOTH DAY
PERIODS DRY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. BEST BET FOR STORMS IN
THAT PERIOD WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 80S AND
LOWER 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MILLER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
743 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE NORTH
COUNTRY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. A SLOW- MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING DRIER BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO T/TD/MIN TEMP DATA AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. RELATIVELY UNNOTICEABLE
CHANGES AT PRIMARY FORECAST POINTS...BUT MORE NOTEWORTHY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LATEST GFS BIAS-CORRECTED DATA CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH AIRMASS REGIME CHANGE OVER THE PAST 24-HOURS. A
BLEND OF MET/EKD BIAS-CORECTED DATA APPEARS MORE REASONABLE AND
HAVE LEANED IN THIS DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY WHICH ALLOWS AREAS ABOVE
1500 FEET TO RADIATE OUT A TAD MORESO THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS.
STILL LOOKING AT SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE...BUT NOT
CONVINCED OF ANY WIDESPREAD BR/FG GIVEN RAP HYDROLAPSE DATA AND
THE FACT THAT AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. THUS HAVE TWEAKED AREAL COVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BASED OFF EXPECTED TD DEPRESSIONS AND WIND THRESHOLDS IN THE
05-09Z TIME RANGE RATHER THAN HIGHLIGHTING STRICTLY IN OUR CLIMO-
FAVORED AREAS. AGAIN...ALL OF THESE ADJUSTMENTS FAIRLY MINOR WITH
THE BULK OF THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINING IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.
HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEAK SFC RIDGE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED
CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING AS MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. LIGHT NEAR-SFC WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG-PRONE
AREAS THIS EVENING. MID-/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LOWER AND THICKEN BY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
BASED MOST CLOSELY AROUND THE MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH PAINTS LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER/MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE PERIOD IS
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STEADY
RAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY INDICES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT AREAS OF EMBEDDED THUNDER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY....I HAVEN`T
INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER ON TUESDAY AS WEAKENING DYNAMIC
FORCING COMBINED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A RATHER LONG-DURATION RAINFALL EVENT. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON
TUESDAY. REGARDING QPF...I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE FAVORED EAST-FACING SLOPE
AREAS GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY MEAN FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
QPF AMOUNTS THEMSELVES ARE BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE LATEST
SREF...GFS...AND ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
RANGE FROM AN INCH IN THE SHADOWED CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS TO AN INCH AND A HALF ALONG AFOREMENTIONED EAST- FACING
SLOPE AREAS. GIVEN THE WET SOILS THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR NUISANCE
HYDRO CONCERNS THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BUT REALLY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN THAT AS THE RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME. I WILL WORD ACCORDINGLY IN THE HWO PRODUCT HOWEVER.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO MAY EXIST FOR SOME GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
TAKE PLACE ALONG SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS ON MONDAY NIGHT. BTV4 AND
BTV12 EACH SHOW A SOUTHEASTERLY 925-850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KTS
ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE. NOT EXPECTING A
DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT AS LAPSE RATES ARE ROUGHLY NEAR NEUTRAL...BUT
I DO HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH MENTIONED ALONG OUR EAST-FACING SLOPE
AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LOWER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE SIMILAR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY AND WED NGT...MDLS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MV UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL ALLOW WK SFC RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE CWA BRIEFLY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA/GREAT LKS
REGION. RIDGE INTACT FOR LATE IN UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT MDLS DO
HINT AT FRNT/SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW WRAPAROUND -RW
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS NNW WINDS BRING MOISTURE ON
BACKSIDE OF EXITING SYSTEM. HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR NE
VT(LIKELY DO TO ITS PROXIMITY OF EXITING LOW) AND HIR ELEV OF
DACKS(HIGH CHANCE)...TAPERING OFF TO THE NE KINGDOM BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FRI/FRI NGT AS
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH. KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW DO TO AMT OF QPF
BIAS IN LATEST ECMWF/GFS MDL RUNS W/ EMPHASIS IN HIR TRRN. FOR LATE
IN WEEKEND WILL JUST PUT IN SL CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER ALONG N NY
BORDER.
TEMPS IN EXTENDED STILL DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER FROM ABV MENTIONED
SYSTEMS. HAVE MAINLY LOWERED POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS ON RAINY DAYS WHILE
KEEPING OVERNGT LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. FOR SAT/SUN...EXPECTING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS W/ HIGHS IN THE 70S/U60S IN HIR ELEV. OVERNGT LOWS IN
L50S/40S IN HIR ELEV FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK IN
FOG/BR OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH SOME SUN-INDUCED DRYING DURING THE DAY WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. HOWEVER THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL STILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT
AT MPV/SLK WHERE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR FALL BELOW THEIR CROSS-
OVER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS CONTINUE INCREASE ON MONDAY
WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SLK/RUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY 5-10
KNOTS ON MONDAY...EXCEPT MSS WHERE SOME E/NE CHANNELED FLOW
DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.
00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...PRIMARILY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...JMG/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE NORTH
COUNTRY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. A SLOW- MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING DRIER BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO T/TD/MIN TEMP DATA AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. RELATIVELY UNNOTICEABLE
CHANGES AT PRIMARY FORECAST POINTS...BUT MORE NOTEWORTHY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LATEST GFS BIAS-CORRECTED DATA CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH AIRMASS REGIME CHANGE OVER THE PAST 24-HOURS. A
BLEND OF MET/EKD BIAS-CORECTED DATA APPEARS MORE REASONABLE AND
HAVE LEANED IN THIS DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY WHICH ALLOWS AREAS ABOVE
1500 FEET TO RADIATE OUT A TAD MORESO THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS.
STILL LOOKING AT SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE...BUT NOT
CONVINCED OF ANY WIDESPREAD BR/FG GIVEN RAP HYDROLAPSE DATA AND
THE FACT THAT AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. THUS HAVE TWEAKED AREAL COVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BASED OFF EXPECTED TD DEPRESSIONS AND WIND THRESHOLDS IN THE
05-09Z TIME RANGE RATHER THAN HIGHLIGHTING STRICTLY IN OUR CLIMO-
FAVORED AREAS. AGAIN...ALL OF THESE ADJUSTMENTS FAIRLY MINOR WITH
THE BULK OF THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINING IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.
HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEAK SFC RIDGE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED
CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING AS MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. LIGHT NEAR-SFC WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG-PRONE
AREAS THIS EVENING. MID-/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LOWER AND THICKEN BY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
BASED MOST CLOSELY AROUND THE MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH PAINTS LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER/MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE PERIOD IS
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STEADY
RAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY INDICES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT AREAS OF EMBEDDED THUNDER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY....I HAVEN`T
INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER ON TUESDAY AS WEAKENING DYNAMIC
FORCING COMBINED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A RATHER LONG-DURATION RAINFALL EVENT. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON
TUESDAY. REGARDING QPF...I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE FAVORED EAST-FACING SLOPE
AREAS GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY MEAN FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
QPF AMOUNTS THEMSELVES ARE BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE LATEST
SREF...GFS...AND ECMWF QPF AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
RANGE FROM AN INCH IN THE SHADOWED CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS TO AN INCH AND A HALF ALONG AFOREMENTIONED EAST- FACING
SLOPE AREAS. GIVEN THE WET SOILS THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR NUISANCE
HYDRO CONCERNS THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BUT REALLY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN THAT AS THE RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME. I WILL WORD ACCORDINGLY IN THE HWO PRODUCT HOWEVER.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO MAY EXIST FOR SOME GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
TAKE PLACE ALONG SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS ON MONDAY NIGHT. BTV4 AND
BTV12 EACH SHOW A SOUTHEASTERLY 925-850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KTS
ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE. NOT EXPECTING A
DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT AS LAPSE RATES ARE ROUGHLY NEAR NEUTRAL...BUT
I DO HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH MENTIONED ALONG OUR EAST-FACING SLOPE
AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LOWER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE SIMILAR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY AND WED NGT...MDLS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MV UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL ALLOW WK SFC RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE CWA BRIEFLY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA/GREAT LKS
REGION. RIDGE INTACT FOR LATE IN UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT MDLS DO
HINT AT FRNT/SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW WRAPAROUND -RW
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS NNW WINDS BRING MOISTURE ON
BACKSIDE OF EXITING SYSTEM. HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR NE
VT(LIKELY DO TO ITS PROXIMITY OF EXITING LOW) AND HIR ELEV OF
DACKS(HIGH CHANCE)...TAPERING OFF TO THE NE KINGDOM BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FRI/FRI NGT AS
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH. KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW DO TO AMT OF QPF
BIAS IN LATEST ECMWF/GFS MDL RUNS W/ EMPHASIS IN HIR TRRN. FOR LATE
IN WEEKEND WILL JUST PUT IN SL CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER ALONG N NY
BORDER.
TEMPS IN EXTENDED STILL DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER FROM ABV MENTIONED
SYSTEMS. HAVE MAINLY LOWERED POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS ON RAINY DAYS WHILE
KEEPING OVERNGT LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. FOR SAT/SUN...EXPECTING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS W/ HIGHS IN THE 70S/U60S IN HIR ELEV. OVERNGT LOWS IN
L50S/40S IN HIR ELEV FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...THRU 00Z MONDAY...SCT030-040 TRENDING TO SKC
THEN BY 12Z MONDAY VFR COND CONTINUE WITH SCT040-080 INCR FROM THE
SW AS NEXT WX SYSTEM APPROACHES. W/ SKC OVERNGT...MPV/SLK WILL SEE
MIX OF MVFR/IFR COND FROM 05Z-12Z MONDAY W/ FG DOWN TO 1SM AND CIG
BKN-OVC010. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z MON...THEN
MAINLY SSE 5-10KTS BY 10Z-12Z. MSS WILL SEE ENE WINDS 5-10KTS SET
UP BY 10Z MON.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
LIKELY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...JMG/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS/JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
124 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE STORM WITH MORE RAIN WILL COME IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE... +RA IS BRUSHING FAR ERN PIKE/SULLIVAN/DELAWARE
CNTYS ATTM. RADAR MOSAICS/SAT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED...WITH RAINFALL TAPERING OFF AFTER 04-07Z. FLOOD WATCH
WILL STILL BE RETAINED FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHWS...PATCHY -RA/DZ SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AGN...JUST MINOR
TEMP/DEW PT TWEAKS WERE MADE.
PREV DISC... 7 PM UPDATE... THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA WERE CENTERED
OVER SE VA EARLY THIS EVE...WITH A CONTINUED STEADY NEWD HEADING
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE WRN FRINGES OF THE STEADY RAIN HAVE HAD
TROUBLE MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TWDS THE NW DURG THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVE HRS.
AS PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HANDLED THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF ANDREA QUITE WELL THE LAST 6-12 HRS...THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD SHOULD MAKE A BIT OF AN INLAND PUSH MORE
TWDS A TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA LN BY 02-03Z. HOWEVER...BY LTR
TNT...AS ANDREA TRACKS TWDS THE NJ/SRN LONG ISLAND SHORE AREAS...AND
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC IN NATURE...THE PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD PIVOT...AND START TO PUSH EWD OUT OF THE FA.
BOTTOM LN...OUTSIDE OF CAT POPS FOR STEADY RAIN IN OUR ERN
ZNS...WE`RE SIMPLY GOING TO CALL IT LGT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND HI-RES NWP GUIDANCE. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE +RA WILL EITHER BYPASS OUR
CWA TO THE E...OR JUST SCRAPE ERN PIKE/SULLIVAN CNTYS FOR A BRIEF
TIME LTR TNT. UNTIL WE SEE CLEAR EVIDENCE...HOWEVER...THAT OUR ERN
CNTYS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS...WE`LL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH.
TEMPS/DEW PTS WERE JUST TWEAKED SLIGHTLY THIS EVE.
EARLIER DISC... 4 PM UPDATE... FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR PIKE SULLIVAN
DELAWARE THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE CALL WITH THE
TROPICAL PRECIP COMING IN NOW AND LASTING INTO EARLY MORNING. QPF
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT OUR FURTHEST SE COULD GET 3 OR 4 INCHES IN
EXTREME SE SULLIVAN AND PIKE. IF THESE AMOUNTS HOLD HEADWATER
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. IN THE LAST
24 HOURS MOSTLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE WATCH AREA AND A
LITTLE TO THE NW OF THAT. HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE PA NJ BORDER
BUT MOST OF THAT GONE AND NOT MUCH YET TODAY. IN THE SE PWATS OF
1.5 INCHES WILL GIVE RAINFALL RATES WHICH WILL INCREASE TO HALF AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS AROUND MIDNIGHT. STEADY RAIN WILL
PROBABLY MOVE TO A ELM SYR LINE BUT MOST OF CENT NY WILL GET LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH.
TRACK OF ANDREA RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SO WIND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
IN THE CWA. ANDREA WILL HELP BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN AHEAD
OF IT. THE LIFT WITH IT AT LOW LEVELS AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF STRONG UL JET MEANS DEEP LIFT. ANDREA MOVES OUT INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM SO RAIN WILL END BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVG THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY THE
AFTN WITH A LITTLE HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT
NGT THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY. WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE TOUGH TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. SOME SUN
WILL PUSH TEMPS TO A70 SAT THEN 75 TO 80 SUNDAY.
A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLOW MOVING SO ONLY A
CHC OF SHOWERS SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. THE WARM FRONT GETS HERE ON
MONDAY WITH A STRONG TEMP AND MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE FRONT AHEAD
OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. SOME
CLEARING AND LARGE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY POSSIBLE IN NE PA AND
MAYBE CENT NY DURING THE AFTN AND EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
STILL FAIRLY BUSY IN THE LONG TERM...WITH TROUGHY PATTERN ONLY
GRADUALLY LETTING GO IN FAVOR OF ATTEMPTED RIDING TOWARDS THE NEXT
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WET PATTERN OF LATE...CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE LONG TERM MAY POSE WATER ISSUES FOR THE MOST
SENSITIVE AREAS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFICS OF UPPER LOW AND/OR TROUGH
PLACEMENTS...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT ON TUESDAY SOME SORT OF
ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH. AS WELL AS
CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...I ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF INSTABILITY CAN BE MANAGED. GFS
SUGGESTS FAIRLY POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD
ALLOW THUNDER.
UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES IN CENTRAL ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...WITH UNCERTAIN AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE BROADLY
AROUND IT /MORE SO IN GFS/. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FIGURED
FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON UPPER LOW DEPARTING BUT DISAGREE ON IF
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC IN ITS WAKE...YET EITHER WAY MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED SO I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO TAKE CHARGE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST FLAT
RIDGING IF NOT OUTRIGHT UPPER RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN THAT
FLOW...BUT OVERALL VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND SURFACE HIGH WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST FRIDAY...THUS I OPTED LOWER
THAN WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARND AS THE REMAINS OF TS ANDREA ZIP UP THE
CST. THIS WILL CONT THE SPOTTY IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS INTO
SAT. WEAK HIPRES AND SLOW DRYING ARRIVES SAT AFTN AND WILL CONT
THE SLOW IMPRVMT OF CONDS WITH VFR LIKELY AFT 18Z AND CONTG THRU
THE END OF THE PD. LGT WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME WLY ON SAT BUT
LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH THE WEK GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HI.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT-SUN...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY
KELM PREDAWN HRS SUN MRNG.
SUN NGT THRU TUE...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WED...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...CMG/DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
941 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL HIGH PRESSURE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POP
SCATTERED DELUGES ACROSS OUR N AND NE ZONES THIS MID-EVENING. A
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS EFFECTIVE FOR A CONFINED AREA OF PENDER
COUNTY EAST OF THE COMMUNITY OF CURRIE...WHERE THE INTERSECTION OF
HIGHWAY 421 AND HIGHWAY 210 HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL INCHES OF
STANDING WATER. THE ROAD IS NOT CLOSED BUT TROOPERS ARE SLOWING
APPROACHING NIGHT-TIME COMMUTERS.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BRIEF BREAK INTO LATE EVENING BUT TEAMING
ECHOS OFFSHORE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHEST POP VALUES NEAR THE COAST GENERALLY NORTH OF MURRELLS
INLET THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND ALSO ACROSS THE FAR WEST
INTERIOR WHERE ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL SC APPEARS POISED TO CLIP
DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES INTO THE LATE EVENING. ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA ON MON AND THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA DURING TUE. DEEP SW
FLOW WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING IT N ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK OVER 2 INCHES ON
MON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING MON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR MON.
ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY SLOW...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...LEADING TO PONDING
IN LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN ON MON. THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES SHOULD STILL REACH
500 TO 700 J/KG. GIVEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR...SEVERE
WEATHER IS VERY UNLIKELY. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH WILL FALL ON ALREADY WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.
CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION FROM THE LAND TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED WATER DURING MON NIGHT AND SO WILL TREND POPS HIGHER OVER
THE WATER AND LOWER OVER LAND DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED ONTO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT RACES UP THE COAST.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE TRENDING DRIER ON TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH HIGHER AS DRIER AIR...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-LEVELS...ALLOWS FOR SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...FIRST ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND THEN ALONG THE
COAST LATER IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY...HIGHEST AT THE COAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER ON TUE...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE UNIMPRESSIVE. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A WET MICROBURST ON TUE...BUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY REACH THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT GETTING HUNG UP AS IT BUMPS THE
BERMUDA RIDGE. IF THE FRONT DOES BRIEFLY REACH OR PUSH THROUGH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME ILL-DEFINED AND WASH OUT
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR WED.
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON MON. TUE...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OF DEVELOPING SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH WELL UP INTO THE 80S. SOME INLAND AREAS COULD HIT 90
DEGREES WHILE A SW RESULTANT KEEPS COASTAL BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHERN
NEW HANOVER COUNTIES IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 70 DEGREES TO MID 70S VERY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AREA WILL BE ON THE NE FRINGE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHILE PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS
WARM TO ABOUT 21C ALLOWING MOST PLACES TO WARM INTO THE 90S. THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DECENT SHORTWAVE
TO PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH. WE MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE MID LEVEL DRYING MAY BE HARD TO
OVERCOME. COLD FRONT GETS PUSHED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
BEST RAINFALL CHANCES EVEN IF OVERALL QPF PROSPECTS MARGINALIZED BY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND AND A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR VERY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND IS BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN
AS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS INLAND AND MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 06Z. THE HRRR INDICATES SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMS OVERNIGHT...SO
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO -SHRA FOR KMYR/KCRE/KILM EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
S/SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY... BECOMING 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20 KTS IN THE AFTN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15 KT BEFORE THE END OF THE
PERIOD BUT WINDS MAY VEER TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN S WAVES WITH INTERVALS OF 5-6
SECONDS...AND WEAKER LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES IN THE MIX. SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A THREAT OF CLOUD TO WATER STRIKES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A POTENT TROUGH. A
NOCTURNAL JET WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER MORE TO THE SW MON NIGHT WITH SW WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AND TUE EVE...AND SPEEDS COULD REACH AROUND
20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE PROSPECTS FOR
SIX FOOT SEAS ARE INCREASING FOR LATE MON INTO TUE NIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
PRIOR TO MIDDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING POOR VISIBILITIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL ENERGY ON WEDNESDAY TO POSSIBLY YIELD SOME
SCEC-WORTHY 5 FT SEAS MAINLY OVER NRN ZONES. STRENGTHENING
PIEDMONT TROUGH ON THURSDAY TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT JUST ENOUGH
FOR POSSIBLE LOW END ADVISORY. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BOLSTER THIS EFFECT. THIS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
BRINGING A SHARP VEER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY SUBSIDING
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED POST FROPA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC/III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
747 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRIEFLY REACH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE WEEK. DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LINGERING ALTO CU HAS LIMITED TEMPERATURE
RISE THUS FAR. DESPITE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES...SO FAR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST AREAS
WITH LITTLE CLOUD THIS MORNING HAVE DEVELOPED GOOD COVERAGE OF
STORMS. STILL THINK CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE ILM AREA
BUT WHAT DEVELOPS IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AS STRONG AS THE STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS DARLINGTON AND
MARLBORO COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LIMITED AND TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER AND STORM MOTIONS UNDER 10 KT COMBINED WITH PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES.
STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE AND ACTIVITY
WANES.
ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK PVA MAKE A COMPELLING CASE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
COVERAGE THIS MORNING WILL CAP POP AT CHC...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.
CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA ON MON AND THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA DURING TUE. DEEP SW
FLOW WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING IT N ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK OVER 2 INCHES ON
MON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING MON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR MON.
ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY SLOW...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...LEADING TO PONDING
IN LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN ON MON. THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES SHOULD STILL REACH
500 TO 700 J/KG. GIVEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR...SEVERE
WEATHER IS VERY UNLIKELY. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH WILL FALL ON ALREADY WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.
CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION FROM THE LAND TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED WATER DURING MON NIGHT AND SO WILL TREND POPS HIGHER OVER
THE WATER AND LOWER OVER LAND DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED ONTO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT RACES UP THE COAST.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE TRENDING DRIER ON TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH HIGHER AS DRIER AIR...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-LEVELS...ALLOWS FOR SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...FIRST ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND THEN ALONG THE
COAST LATER IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY...HIGHEST AT THE COAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER ON TUE...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE UNIMPRESSIVE. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A WET MICROBURST ON TUE...BUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY REACH THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT GETTING HUNG UP AS IT BUMPS THE
BERMUDA RIDGE. IF THE FRONT DOES BRIEFLY REACH OR PUSH THROUGH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...IT WILL QUICKLY BECOME ILL-DEFINED AND WASH OUT
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR WED.
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON MON. TUE...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OF DEVELOPING SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH WELL UP INTO THE 80S. SOME INLAND AREAS COULD HIT 90
DEGREES WHILE A SW RESULTANT KEEPS COASTAL BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHERN
NEW HANOVER COUNTIES IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 70 DEGREES TO MID 70S VERY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AREA WILL BE ON THE NE FRINGE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHILE PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS
WARM TO ABOUT 21C ALLOWING MOST PLACES TO WARM INTO THE 90S. THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DECENT SHORTWAVE
TO PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH. WE MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE MID LEVEL DRYING MAY BE HARD TO
OVERCOME. COLD FRONT GETS PUSHED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
BEST RAINFALL CHANCES EVEN IF OVERALL QPF PROSPECTS MARGINALIZED BY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND AND A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR VERY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND IS BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN AS
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS INLAND AND MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE COAST AFTER 06Z. THE HRRR INDICATES SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMS OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO -SHRA FOR KMYR/KCRE/KILM EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
S/SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY... BECOMING 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20 KTS IN THE AFTN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INCREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15 KT BEFORE THE END
OF THE PERIOD BUT WINDS MAY VEER TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD
ENDS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT MAINLY AS SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH VERY
LITTLE SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A POTENT TROUGH. A
NOCTURNAL JET WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER MORE TO THE SW MON NIGHT WITH SW WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AND TUE EVE...AND SPEEDS COULD REACH AROUND
20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE PROSPECTS FOR
SIX FOOT SEAS ARE INCREASING FOR LATE MON INTO TUE NIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
PRIOR TO MIDDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING POOR VISIBILITIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL ENERGY ON WEDNESDAY TO POSSIBLY YIELD SOME
SCEC-WORTHY 5 FT SEAS MAINLY OVER NRN ZONES. STRENGTHENING
PIEDMONT TROUGH ON THURSDAY TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT JUST ENOUGH
FOR POSSIBLE LOW END ADVISORY. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BOLSTER THIS EFFECT. THIS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
BRINGING A SHARP VEER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY SUBSIDING
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED POST FROPA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
151 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
POST-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA
OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SHORTLY EXIT ROBESON COUNTY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATER THIS
MORNING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 7:30 PM FOLLOWS BELOW:
NOW THAT ANDREA IS OUT OF OUR HAIR...ATTENTION IS TURNING UPSTREAM
TO AN IMPRESSIVE LITTLE VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT
IS HELPING SUPPORT QUITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA
INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE ALL MODELS SHOW THE HEART OF THIS
DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...AN ASSOCIATED 200/300 MB JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE LIFT
EVEN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERMALLY...LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEPER THAN THE MOIST
ADIABATIC RATE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP
CONVECTION GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME CAPPED OFF DUE TO A COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED FROM 950 MB WOULD
ONLY HAVE TO OVERCOME A SMALL NEGATIVE REGION TO RELEASE 500-1000
J/KG OF CAPE.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF
AUGUSTA GA SHOWS IT COULD BE MOVING INTO FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 11 PM. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF CHARLOTTE COULD MOVE INTO THE PEE DEE REGION NORTH OF
FLORENCE BY 11 PM. THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST POTENTIAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE 11PM TO 2 AM TIME
FRAME. LESSER COVERAGE IS INDICATED AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE CAPE FEAR COAST AFTER 2 AM. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST HAVE
FOCUSED ON THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL
BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO START THE DAY IN EXCESS
OF ONE AND A HALF INCHES. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED
ABOVE 10 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING
THE EVE AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY SKIM PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LATE AT NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACTUALLY INCREASE AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WEAK CAP HANGING ON THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS MAY SERVE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO
FOCUS/CONVERGE/LIFT MOISTURE BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...AND SO
THERE MAY BE A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE BOUNDARY ON THAT DAY.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ALTHOUGH THE GROUND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SEVERAL WILL APPROACH FLOOD STAGE.
AT THIS TIME...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
FEAR RIVER AROUND WILLIAM O HUSKE.
TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S WITH PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING WELL INLAND...
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SO IT WILL FEEL HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DAMPENING OUT. THE REGION WILL BE IN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE FLOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE SECOND
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...KLBT MAY BE IMPACTED BY INLAND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
VERY START OF THE TAF PERIOD...WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. ANY PCPN SHOULD HELP FURTHER SATURATE THE NEAR SFC
LAYER...AND SO MVFR FOG APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR KLBT/KFLO
BEFORE DAYBREAK. ALONG THE COAST...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR ANY FOG FORMATION. DURING THE DAY...VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SC/BKN CU AROUND 3-4KFT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG
THE COAST LATER THIS AFTN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN-LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 7:30 PM FOLLOWS:
POST-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND HER
EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF ANDREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DIMINISH...AND ARE STILL
BEING MEASURED AT 13 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND 6-8
FEET AT THE NEARSHORE BUOY ARRAY NEAR CAPE FEAR. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST IS TO INCREASE FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS
NEARSHORE WHERE THE OCEAN CREST PIER WAVE GAUGE IS SHOWING 6 FT SEAS
JUST OUTSIDE THE SURF ZONE...IMPLYING SUBSTANTIAL UPWARD REVISIONS
OF UP TO +4 FEET ARE NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECASTS WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF SHORE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE ITS
PASSAGE DOWN TO THE COAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH AFTER 2 AM...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING
DRY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ROUGH SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY
SAT...BUT A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SAT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. SW WINDS SAT AND SAT NIGHT
WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO SSW SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE BUILDING WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE REORIENTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO START FROM 3 TO 4 FEET WITH ISOLATED
5 FOOTERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. AS THE FRONTAL BOUND DRAWS NEAR TO THE
MARINE WATERS A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ254-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1026 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCT SHRA ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FA ATTM. BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION INCLUDING TSRA IS SHOULD WORK INTO THE FA AFTER 06Z.
ADJUSTED THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST POPS TO BETWEEN 06Z-12Z OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASED THE CHC OF THUNDER SOME. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS AT 80
FOR NOW.
LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE ESE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIFT...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND AN
INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUPPORT ALOFT FROM
DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ON A 25-30 KNOT LLJ.
A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT AND SOME DEGREE (THOUGH NOT STRONG) OF
COLDER/DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA GENERALLY IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE LLJ-FORCED ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO CREATE A WET
MORNING ACROSS THE ILN CWA. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT (04Z-14Z FROM W TO E). THE HIGH-RES
MODELS DEPICT THE MODE AS MORE OF A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TYPE OF
EVENT (WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER)...AS OPPOSED TO AN EASILY-TRACKABLE
WALL OF PRECIPITATION. POPS ARE BEING HELD AT 80 PERCENT FOR
NOW...THOUGH 100 POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY ONCE THE EXACT
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE WORKING
ITS WAY EAST...NOT REALLY MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. IF THERE WILL BE ANY THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS
TOMORROW...IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. UNDER THE TROUGH AXIS...TEMPS ALOFT
WILL BE DECREASING QUITE A BIT. WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS
THERE WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT
WOULD NOT TAKE A LOT OF SUN TO GENERATE ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL. HOWEVER...AT NO POINT DURING THE DAY DOES THE INSTABILITY
APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT. POPS ARE HIGHEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE CATEGORIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(EARLY EVENING IN THE EAST).
THE TEMP FORECAST IS GOING TO ASSUME DIURNAL CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY IT MAY NOT QUITE PLAY OUT THAT
WAY...WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO THE COOL MET
GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO (OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN) THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SOME OF THE RAW MODELS WERE EVEN LOWER ON TEMPS MONDAY.
SKY GRIDS WERE RAISED A BIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RATHER THICK RH
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE LONG TERM...THEN THEY START TO DIFFER
ON TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHS DOMINATING THE WRN AND ERN U.S. WITH
RIDGING SPREAD OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MID-LOWER MS VALLEY.
ON TUESDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE A WEAK SFC
RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. A SHOWER MAY LINGER IN THE FAR
EAST EARLY ON...OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CAA BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS MID 80S NEAR
THE TRI-STATE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A DISTINCT S/WV WHICH WILL ROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DIVE
SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...RETURN FLOW AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO PIVOT TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO OUR REGION WHILE A PSEUDO
WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH. THESE FEATURES
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THE
GREATEST ACTIVITY/COVERAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS S/WV ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WEAK SFC
WAVE AS THEY PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. IT CONTINUES TO
APPEAR THAT THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY CONGEALING
INTO AN MCS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...THE PARAMETERS ARE RIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4 KM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION
THESE HAZARDS IN THE EXTENDED HWO. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD
AND RAIN DEPENDENT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTH. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE HUMID. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH COOLER WEATHER ON TAP ON THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PCPN ON THURSDAY SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR
REGION. DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION BRINGS PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL KEEP A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS THE NW.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE BONAFIDE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING IS AN ISSUE STILL
THIS FAR OUT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF SHRA LIFTING N THRU THE NRN TAFS IS BEING HANDLED PRETTY
WELL BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. THEY TAKE THIS ACTIVITY N OF
THE TAFS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TAFS WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE CONVECTION
OUT WEST WORKS IN AFT 04-06Z. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY
THE DIGGING H5 LOW. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THE
LULL THIS EVENING...THEN BROUGHT CONVECTION TO THE OH/IN BORDER BY
06Z...AND SWUNG IT INTO THE TAFS BETWEEN 06-12Z. WENT WITH A
PERIOD OF TEMPO MVFR TSRA AT THE TAFS AS THESE STORMS WORK ACROSS
THE TAFS.
THE SFC LOW AND FRONT WORK ACROSS THE TAFS BETWEEN
12-16Z...PUSHING THE TSRA EWD. BROUGHT BACK A VCTS FOR LATE
MORNING INTO AFTN AS MODELS DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND H5 LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THE MONDAY AFTN CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OF THE SCT NATURE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
916 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO AND NW PA TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL THEN STALL OVER OHIO
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
LATEST HI-RES MODELS TRYING TO SHOW ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TOWARD DAWN MOVING INTO THE WEST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC AND THE FACT THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT. HAVE EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND THE CLOUD COVER. EXPECT TO SE LOWS IN THE 60S
AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE SLOW TO TAPER OFF THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WE WILL MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THE ISOLATED THUNDER ON MONDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER ON MONDAY BUT IT STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. WARMER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
BREAKS WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BY MID WEEK ALLOWING DIGGING TROUGH TO DIVE DOWN THE
EAST COAST. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS DOES NOT FAVOR WELL FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. OUR SAVING GRACE WILL
BE THE FACT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. ONCE THIS TAKES
PLACE...A RETURN TO WARM SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FINALLY EXIT STAGE
RIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL RACE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE HAS LIMITED MOISTURE AND COULD BRING A MINIMAL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLEVIATE ANY
STRONG SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A RETURN TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST
AND TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT OF SWRN OHIO THIS
EVENING. CIGS WITH THIS REMAIN VFR WITH CIG HEIGHTS LOWERING TO
ABOUT BKN-OVC050-060. EXPECT THIS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IMPACTING
KFDY AND KMFD FIRST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AND THEN CONTINUING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS IT THINS. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS
WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AFTER 06Z THE NAM ALSO SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE
FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BRING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH IFR LIKELY AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN LOW CIGS AND/OR RAIN/FOG/MIST.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN TAKE/SUSTAIN
CONDITIONS TO NON VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LAKE APPEARED IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FROM THE ISLANDS WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY MORNING...THE
GRADIENT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT GET TO TIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY CALM WINDS AND WAVES ON THE LAKE.
THE PROBLEM WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
809 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY HAS BEEN
ADVECTING ON A NNE TRAJECTORY...BUT LARGELY PROPAGATING MORE
EASTWARD...THANKS TO THE DEARTH OF INSTABILITY OVER THE ILN CWA.
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS (OBSERVED AND VIA LAPS ANALYSIS) IT
APPEARS THAT MODELS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...LARGELY DUE TO SOME SLIGHT
OVERFORECASTING IN BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THE THETA-E
ADVECTION IS ON THE WAY...SIGNIFIED BY THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING PWAT
VALUES (FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.50" BY EVENING). WHILE RADAR TRENDS
DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE POPS WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE FROM HRRR/RAP DEPICTIONS. THIS WILL
START OFF VERY HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (CATEGORICAL) AND THEN
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY (LIKELY) AS THE INITIAL BATCH OF FORCING MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...GENERALLY THROUGH 06Z. ALTHOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS BATCH...MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE A LULL IN THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMP/SKY FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH RATHER MOIST AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
CWA. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AS THEY STAY UP IN THE
5-10 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE ESE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIFT...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND AN
INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUPPORT ALOFT FROM
DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ON A 25-30 KNOT LLJ.
A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT AND SOME DEGREE (THOUGH NOT STRONG) OF
COLDER/DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA GENERALLY IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE LLJ-FORCED ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO CREATE A WET
MORNING ACROSS THE ILN CWA. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT (04Z-14Z FROM W TO E). THE HIGH-RES
MODELS DEPICT THE MODE AS MORE OF A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TYPE OF
EVENT (WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER)...AS OPPOSED TO AN EASILY-TRACKABLE
WALL OF PRECIPITATION. POPS ARE BEING HELD AT 80 PERCENT FOR
NOW...THOUGH 100 POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY ONCE THE EXACT
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE WORKING
ITS WAY EAST...NOT REALLY MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. IF THERE WILL BE ANY THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS
TOMORROW...IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. UNDER THE TROUGH AXIS...TEMPS ALOFT
WILL BE DECREASING QUITE A BIT. WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS
THERE WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT
WOULD NOT TAKE A LOT OF SUN TO GENERATE ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL. HOWEVER...AT NO POINT DURING THE DAY DOES THE INSTABILITY
APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT. POPS ARE HIGHEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE CATEGORIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(EARLY EVENING IN THE EAST).
THE TEMP FORECAST IS GOING TO ASSUME DIURNAL CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY IT MAY NOT QUITE PLAY OUT THAT
WAY...WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO THE COOL MET
GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO (OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN) THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SOME OF THE RAW MODELS WERE EVEN LOWER ON TEMPS MONDAY.
SKY GRIDS WERE RAISED A BIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RATHER THICK RH
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE LONG TERM...THEN THEY START TO DIFFER
ON TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHS DOMINATING THE WRN AND ERN U.S. WITH
RIDGING SPREAD OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MID-LOWER MS VALLEY.
ON TUESDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE A WEAK SFC
RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. A SHOWER MAY LINGER IN THE FAR
EAST EARLY ON...OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CAA BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS MID 80S NEAR
THE TRI-STATE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A DISTINCT S/WV WHICH WILL ROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DIVE
SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...RETURN FLOW AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO PIVOT TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO OUR REGION WHILE A PSEUDO
WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH. THESE FEATURES
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THE
GREATEST ACTIVITY/COVERAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS S/WV ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WEAK SFC
WAVE AS THEY PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. IT CONTINUES TO
APPEAR THAT THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY CONGEALING
INTO AN MCS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...THE PARAMETERS ARE RIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4 KM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION
THESE HAZARDS IN THE EXTENDED HWO. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD
AND RAIN DEPENDENT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTH. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE HUMID. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH COOLER WEATHER ON TAP ON THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PCPN ON THURSDAY SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR
REGION. DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION BRINGS PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL KEEP A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS THE NW.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE BONAFIDE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING IS AN ISSUE STILL
THIS FAR OUT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF SHRA LIFTING N THRU THE NRN TAFS IS BEING HANDLED PRETTY
WELL BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. THEY TAKE THIS ACTIVITY N OF
THE TAFS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TAFS WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE CONVECTION
OUT WEST WORKS IN AFT 04-06Z. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY
THE DIGGING H5 LOW. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THE
LULL THIS EVENING...THEN BROUGHT CONVECTION TO THE OH/IN BORDER BY
06Z...AND SWUNG IT INTO THE TAFS BETWEEN 06-12Z. WENT WITH A
PERIOD OF TEMPO MVFR TSRA AT THE TAFS AS THESE STORMS WORK ACROSS
THE TAFS.
THE SFC LOW AND FRONT WORK ACROSS THE TAFS BETWEEN
12-16Z...PUSHING THE TSRA EWD. BROUGHT BACK A VCTS FOR LATE
MORNING INTO AFTN AS MODELS DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND H5 LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THE MONDAY AFTN CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OF THE SCT NATURE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
716 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO AND NW PA TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL THEN STALL OVER OHIO
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVE UP INTO DAYTON AND SHOULD BE AT FINDLAY AND
MARION AROUND 8 PM. LITTLE THUNDER LEFT IN THEM. OCCASIONAL SHOWER
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL
SPREAD TO THE EAST. EXPECT THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME WITH MOST OF
OUR OH COUNTIES GETTING SOME RAIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME...IN FACT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
THUNDER CHANCES CAN BE LOWERED SOME FOR OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE WEST IF ANY TRAINING OF
THE ECHOES CAN OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND THE CLOUD COVER. EXPECT TO SE LOWS IN THE 60S
AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE SLOW TO TAPER OFF THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WE WILL MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THE ISOLATED THUNDER ON MONDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER ON MONDAY BUT IT STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. WARMER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IF WE CAN GET SOME
BREAKS WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BY MID WEEK ALLOWING DIGGING TROUGH TO DIVE DOWN THE
EAST COAST. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS DOES NOT FAVOR WELL FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. OUR SAVING GRACE WILL
BE THE FACT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. ONCE THIS TAKES
PLACE...A RETURN TO WARM SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FINALLY EXIT STAGE
RIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL RACE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE HAS LIMITED MOISTURE AND COULD BRING A MINIMAL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLEVIATE ANY
STRONG SURGES OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A RETURN TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST
AND TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT OF SWRN OHIO THIS
EVENING. CIGS WITH THIS REMAIN VFR WITH CIG HEIGHTS LOWERING TO
ABOUT BKN-OVC050-060. EXPECT THIS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IMPACTING
KFDY AND KMFD FIRST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AND THEN CONTINUING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS IT THINS. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS
WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AFTER 06Z THE NAM ALSO SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE
FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BRING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH IFR LIKELY AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN LOW CIGS AND/OR RAIN/FOG/MIST.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN TAKE/SUSTAIN
CONDITIONS TO NON VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LAKE APPEARED IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FROM THE ISLANDS WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY MORNING...THE
GRADIENT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT GET TO TIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY CALM WINDS AND WAVES ON THE LAKE.
THE PROBLEM WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
222 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE GOTTEN RID OF ALL HEADLINES ANS THE LAST VESTIGE OF TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA HAS PASSED EASTWARD OF MY CWA. THE RUC AND OTHER
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE 0.25 TO 0.5 OVER THE SOUTH EAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVERDONE ALREADY...WILL TREND
POPS AND QPF LOWER. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
STILL MAINTAINING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ALONG THE LAURELS AND
ALLEGHENIES...AND THROUGH THE NW MTNS. THESE ARE QUASI STATIONARY
AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. AS THE OUTPUTS FOR THESE ARE AT A
0.10 OR LESS...ARE NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECT LOW 50S IN THE NW TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW LYING REGIONS AND VALLEYS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT IT SPREADING...THOUGH THE LOW STRATOCU WILL HAMPER
THIS DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS HIGHER...ALLOWING IT TO BE A BIT
MUGGY...AS THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEG
WARMER THAN TODAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN
TRYING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
THE SREF AND GEFS DOWNPLAY THINGS SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT WE WILL START THE DAY
CLOUDY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AND JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY
TO THE EAST OF 90W AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF MON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COMBINE TO FINALLY NUDGE
THE DECAYING UPPER LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
THE WETTEST TIMEFRAME WOULD APPEAR TO COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADVECTED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE ERN GLAKS
MON AND TUE BEFORE SLOWLY PROPAGATING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER AIR APPROACHES IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROF FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY KEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A
CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY. COMPLICATING
THINGS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS TO MY SOUTH AND DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BROAD SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GLAKS TO WELL OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH COULD
TAP WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND BRING COOL/DRIZZLY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. PLAYED THINGS OPTIMISTICALLY AT THIS
POINT TRENDING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH...AND WE`LL SEE
HOW THE EASTERLY FLOW AND FETCH OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT...BUT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE LARGELY EAST
OF CWA.
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STILL MAINTAINING IFR/MVFR
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS ALONG THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES AND THROUGH
THE NW MTNS OVERNIGHT...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING VFR CIGS TO THE SE /WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS UNTIL THEN/.
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH 09Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY...WITH VFR BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
BY LATE MORNING AS THE STORM PULLS FURTHER OFF TO OUR EAST AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN REDUCE CIGS AND
VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY IFR/MVFR...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS MAINLY IN THE SW.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ESP MON-MON NIGHT/. SCT PM
TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANY REMNANTS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND QPF WILL BE 0.5 OR LOWER FOR
ANY ZONES THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ANY PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE
DROPPED ALL HEADLINES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CERU
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH HEAVIER RATES BLOSSOMING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE ROBUST QPF DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...SATURATED GROUND AND IMPROVING FORCING...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN UP OVER THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE IMPROVING AND SLIGHTLY BACKING FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO REGENERATE AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LOW END SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER
GIVEN THE IMPROVING WIND SHEAR AND EASILY REACHABLE LCL HEIGHTS.
GIVEN THE ROBUST 0 TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NOW ADVERTISED ON THE
LATEST RUC RUNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE FEATURED AN ISOLD TORNADO
MENTION IN THE HWO.
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE MTNS FROM THE
WEST AROUND MIDDAY. A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL START TO
DIMINISH POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP SHEAR CONTINUES
TO INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...SO STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAY BE QUITE VIGOROUS...ESPECIALLY IN ERN SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...LINGERING DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY NIGHT SINCE THE 09/12 UTC OP SHORT RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE PASSAGE OF A SHARP LOOKING S/WV
TROUGH. WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN NOW IN STEP WITH THE OP GFS IN
TRANSLATING UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PLAN ON SHAVING BACK POP A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY
GIVING THE PALTRY MOS POPS...FALLING SFC DWPTS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLATED TO REBOUND TO VALUES VERY CLOSE
TO CLIMO.
THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER BROADLY DIFFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND IT IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
THAT OHIO VALLEY MCS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NW CWFA BY
WED AM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING
AT THIS POINT. UNLESS IT BECOMES OBVIOUS THAT AN IMPULSE/OUTFLOW
IS GOING TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACRS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY WILL PLAN ON
LIMITING DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES TO THE MTNS/LEE TROUGH LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF H5 HIGH WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI. MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE
CWA. HENCE...I HAVE CARRIED LOW END CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE MTNS. THEN
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT BEFORE
WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
KCLT REGION REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL
ANTCIPATE SHRA COVERAGE TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT TIMES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLY ORGANIZING AGAIN AS LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR GRADUALLY IMPROVES. WILL FEATURE A DOWNWARD
TRANSITION ON CIGS THROUGH MVFR WITH IFR LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TSRA WILL MAKE A RETURN MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING
AT TIMES WITH MIXING THROUGH MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INSTABILITY HAS GREATLY LESSENED THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE SHARPENING
UPPER TROUGH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPROVES. WILL FEATURE TEMPO TSRA AT
MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VCTS LIKELY THROUGH
MONDAY. EXPECT CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER MON. SRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH
LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN ERN SECTIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON TUE IN THE MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE WED AND AGAIN ON THU.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 90%
KGSP MED 71% HIGH 90% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 98% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 89% HIGH 95% HIGH 84% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 77% HIGH 95% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 90% HIGH 97% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
851 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT...BLOSSOMING COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...THE ROBUST QPF DEPICTED BY THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS...AND THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...HAVE DECIDED TO
POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE
THE RATES INCREASE ENOUGH WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO POSE AN
INCREASING RISK OF MORE THAN ISOLD FLASH FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN UP OVER THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE IMPROVING AND SLIGHTLY BACKING FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO REGENERATE AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LOW END SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER
GIVEN THE IMPROVING WIND SHEAR AND EASILY REACHABLE LCL HEIGHTS.
GIVEN THE ROBUST 0 TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NOW ADVERTISED ON THE
LATEST RUC RUNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE FEATURED AN ISOLD TORNADO
MENTION IN THE HWO.
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE MTNS FROM THE
WEST AROUND MIDDAY. A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL START TO
DIMINISH POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP SHEAR CONTINUES
TO INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...SO STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAY BE QUITE VIGOROUS...ESPECIALLY IN ERN SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...LINGERING DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY NIGHT SINCE THE 09/12 UTC OP SHORT RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE PASSAGE OF A SHARP LOOKING S/WV
TROUGH. WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN NOW IN STEP WITH THE OP GFS IN
TRANSLATING UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PLAN ON SHAVING BACK POP A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY
GIVING THE PALTRY MOS POPS...FALLING SFC DWPTS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLATED TO REBOUND TO VALUES VERY CLOSE
TO CLIMO.
THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER BROADLY DIFFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND IT IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
THAT OHIO VALLEY MCS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NW CWFA BY
WED AM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING
AT THIS POINT. UNLESS IT BECOMES OBVIOUS THAT AN IMPULSE/OUTFLOW
IS GOING TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACRS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY WILL PLAN ON
LIMITING DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES TO THE MTNS/LEE TROUGH LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF H5 HIGH WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI. MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE
CWA. HENCE...I HAVE CARRIED LOW END CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE MTNS. THEN
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT BEFORE
WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY WEAKENED THIS EVENING AS
THE CLT REGION CONTINUES TO STABILIZE FOLLOWING THE EARLIER HEAVY
RAINFALL. SHRA COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT TIMES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLY ORGANIZING AGAIN AS LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR GRADUALLY IMPROVES. WILL FEATURE A STEADY
TRANSITION ON CIGS DOWN THROUGH MVFR WITH IFR LIKELY BEFORE
DAYBREAK. TSRA WILL MAKE A RETURN MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND THEN POSSIBLY
AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS
DEVELOPING AT TIMES WITH MIXING THROUGH MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INSTABILITY HAS GREATLY LESSENED THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE SHARPENING
UPPER TROUGH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPROVES. WILL FEATURE TEMPO TSRA AT
MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VCTS LIKELY THROUGH
MONDAY. EXPECT CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER MON. SRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH
LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN ERN SECTIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON TUE IN THE MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE WED AND AGAIN ON THU.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z
KCLT HIGH 92% HIGH 98% HIGH 89% HIGH 87%
KGSP HIGH 86% HIGH 92% HIGH 86% HIGH 93%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 92% HIGH 84% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 86% HIGH 95% HIGH 85% HIGH 94%
KGMU HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 93%
KAND MED 75% HIGH 89% HIGH 87% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUING TO HOLD TOGETHER BUT OVERALL WEAKENING
HAS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST HOUR. THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL
IN DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE IS 1020 PM CDT.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE SEGMENT MOVING INTO MONTGOMERY COUNTY REMAINS STRONG OTHERWISE
LINE OF CONVECTION OVERALL HAS WEAKENED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.
RAINFALL IN SOUTHWEST BENTON COUNTY TOTALED 1.75 INCHES. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR THE AREA. THE HEAVIER
RAINS HAVE NOW PULLED EAST.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT BETTER THE APPROACHING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ALTHOUGH A
STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STILL THINK ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE DOWN INTO LOUISIANA WITH
CONVECTION ALL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. CLOUDS TOPS HAVE BECOME
COLDER LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. BOUNDARY MAY WORK INTO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND WITH TRAINING OF ECHOES WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION NEARING TENNESSEE RIVER AT 0030Z HAS PULLED
AHEAD OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND ALONG WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS BUT THERE
STILL COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST
TENNESSEE DOWN INTO LOUISIANA AND A WAVE THAT HAS JUST DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONT IN LOUISIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 EXTENDS ALL ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION TRAINING
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH WEST
TENNESSEE AND WAS 40 MILES WEST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AT 00Z. AM
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...EXPECT STORM STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SLUGGISH UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT LATE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE DOWN INTO
EASTERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH COLDER TEMPS
SWINGS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MESOSCALE...STORM CELL MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SUMNER MAY BE MORE
OF A RED HERRING BUT DOES HAVE A SUPERCELLULAR APPEARANCE (ITS GOT
THE LOOK). INBOUND WINDS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 35 KNOTS AT 2326Z.
STORM HAS TURNED RIGHT LAST 20 MINUTES TAPPING ENVIORNMENTAL WINDS
AND MORE HELICITY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 MBAR COLD TEMP AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
21Z. THIS AXIS OF COLDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN SWEEPING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS OF CURRENT WW SHORTLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY
IN THOSE AREAS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SREF RUN WEAKENS INSTABILITY
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
OUT BY H-TRIPLE-R HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. THINK BEST SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND BEGIN WEAKENING BY 03Z AS IT
APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 03Z AND 06Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
HE BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN
MIDDLE TN AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST.
LATEST LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STACKED NICELY AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM IOWA. THESE 2 FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PHASE AND WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE ISOL TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG LEVELS.
THEN...LATER TONIGHT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID STATE...A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN REACH STRONG LEVELS WITH
HIGH WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. TIMING OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 8PM TO 2AM ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND 11PM TO 5AM ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR DATA APPEARS TO WANT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES INTO EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
ON MONDAY...NAM MODEL WILL BE TOSSED AS GRAPHICS DEPICT NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS AT 18Z...AND THIS IN TURN HAS EVOKED OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NUMERICAL MET DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SFC WITH DEWS IN THE LOWER 60S. GFS AND MAV DATA SHOWS EVEN
LOWER DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CAPES REINFORCED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING PATTERN. COULD SEE ISOL TO SCT STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION...WIND AND HAIL.
MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR TO WORK IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS
EASTWARD. POPS WILL THEREFORE SHUTDOWN WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A DEFINITIVE WARMING TREND WILL BE AT HAND AS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER TX AND OUR HEIGHTS RISE.
IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS FOR SAT OR SUN. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF PLATEAU.
VERSUS THE MEX GUIDANCE...AGAIN...THE MEX APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT 97 AT BNA FOR WED. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
AND GO 94. A GENERAL UNDERCUT WILL BE UTILIZED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
857 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE SEGMENT MOVING INTO MONTGOMERY COUNTY REMAINS STRONG OTHERWISE
LINE OF CONVECTION OVERALL HAS WEAKENED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.
RAINFALL IN SOUTHWEST BENTON COUNTY TOTALED 1.75 INCHES. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR THE AREA. THE HEAVIER
RAINS HAVE NOW PULLED EAST.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT BETTER THE APPROACHING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ALTHOUGH A
STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STILL THINK ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE DOWN INTO LOUISIANA WITH
CONVECTION ALL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. CLOUDS TOPS HAVE BECOME
COLDER LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. BOUNDARY MAY WORK INTO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND WITH TRAINING OF ECHOES WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION NEARING TENNESSEE RIVER AT 0030Z HAS PULLED
AHEAD OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND ALONG WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS BUT THERE
STILL COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST
TENNESSEE DOWN INTO LOUISIANA AND A WAVE THAT HAS JUST DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONT IN LOUISIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 EXTENDS ALL ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION TRAINING
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH WEST
TENNESSEE AND WAS 40 MILES WEST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AT 00Z. AM
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...EXPECT STORM STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SLUGGISH UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT LATE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE DOWN INTO
EASTERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH COLDER TEMPS
SWINGS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MESOSCALE...STORM CELL MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SUMNER MAY BE MORE
OF A RED HERRING BUT DOES HAVE A SUPERCELLULAR APPEARANCE (ITS GOT
THE LOOK). INBOUND WINDS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 35 KNOTS AT 2326Z.
STORM HAS TURNED RIGHT LAST 20 MINUTES TAPPING ENVIORNMENTAL WINDS
AND MORE HELICITY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 MBAR COLD TEMP AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
21Z. THIS AXIS OF COLDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN SWEEPING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS OF CURRENT WW SHORTLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY
IN THOSE AREAS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SREF RUN WEAKENS INSTABILITY
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
OUT BY H-TRIPLE-R HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. THINK BEST SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND BEGIN WEAKENING BY 03Z AS IT
APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 03Z AND 06Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
HE BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN
MIDDLE TN AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST.
LATEST LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STACKED NICELY AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM IOWA. THESE 2 FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PHASE AND WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE ISOL TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG LEVELS.
THEN...LATER TONIGHT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID STATE...A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN REACH STRONG LEVELS WITH
HIGH WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. TIMING OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 8PM TO 2AM ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND 11PM TO 5AM ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR DATA APPEARS TO WANT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES INTO EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
ON MONDAY...NAM MODEL WILL BE TOSSED AS GRAPHICS DEPICT NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS AT 18Z...AND THIS IN TURN HAS EVOKED OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NUMERICAL MET DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SFC WITH DEWS IN THE LOWER 60S. GFS AND MAV DATA SHOWS EVEN
LOWER DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CAPES REINFORCED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING PATTERN. COULD SEE ISOL TO SCT STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION...WIND AND HAIL.
MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR TO WORK IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS
EASTWARD. POPS WILL THEREFORE SHUTDOWN WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A DEFINITIVE WARMING TREND WILL BE AT HAND AS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER TX AND OUR HEIGHTS RISE.
IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS FOR SAT OR SUN. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF PLATEAU.
VERSUS THE MEX GUIDANCE...AGAIN...THE MEX APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT 97 AT BNA FOR WED. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
AND GO 94. A GENERAL UNDERCUT WILL BE UTILIZED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
814 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT BETTER THE APPROACHING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ALTHOUGH A
STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STILL THINK ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE DOWN INTO LOUISIANA WITH
CONVECTION ALL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. CLOUDS TOPS HAVE BECOME
COLDER LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. BOUNDARY MAY WORK INTO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND WITH TRAINING OF ECHOES WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION NEARING TENNESSEE RIVER AT 0030Z HAS PULLED
AHEAD OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND ALONG WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS BUT THERE
STILL COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST
TENNESSEE DOWN INTO LOUISIANA AND A WAVE THAT HAS JUST DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONT IN LOUISIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 EXTENDS ALL ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION TRAINING
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH WEST
TENNESSEE AND WAS 40 MILES WEST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AT 00Z. AM
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...EXPECT STORM STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SLUGGISH UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT LATE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE DOWN INTO
EASTERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH COLDER TEMPS
SWINGS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MESOSCALE...STORM CELL MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SUMNER MAY BE MORE
OF A RED HERRING BUT DOES HAVE A SUPERCELLULAR APPEARANCE (ITS GOT
THE LOOK). INBOUND WINDS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 35 KNOTS AT 2326Z.
STORM HAS TURNED RIGHT LAST 20 MINUTES TAPPING ENVIORNMENTAL WINDS
AND MORE HELICITY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 MBAR COLD TEMP AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
21Z. THIS AXIS OF COLDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN SWEEPING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS OF CURRENT WW SHORTLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY
IN THOSE AREAS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SREF RUN WEAKENS INSTABILITY
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
OUT BY H-TRIPLE-R HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. THINK BEST SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND BEGIN WEAKENING BY 03Z AS IT
APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 03Z AND 06Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
HE BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN
MIDDLE TN AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST.
LATEST LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STACKED NICELY AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM IOWA. THESE 2 FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PHASE AND WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE ISOL TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG LEVELS.
THEN...LATER TONIGHT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID STATE...A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN REACH STRONG LEVELS WITH
HIGH WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. TIMING OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 8PM TO 2AM ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND 11PM TO 5AM ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR DATA APPEARS TO WANT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES INTO EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
ON MONDAY...NAM MODEL WILL BE TOSSED AS GRAPHICS DEPICT NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS AT 18Z...AND THIS IN TURN HAS EVOKED OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NUMERICAL MET DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SFC WITH DEWS IN THE LOWER 60S. GFS AND MAV DATA SHOWS EVEN
LOWER DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CAPES REINFORCED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING PATTERN. COULD SEE ISOL TO SCT STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION...WIND AND HAIL.
MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR TO WORK IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS
EASTWARD. POPS WILL THEREFORE SHUTDOWN WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A DEFINITIVE WARMING TREND WILL BE AT HAND AS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER TX AND OUR HEIGHTS RISE.
IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS FOR SAT OR SUN. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF PLATEAU.
VERSUS THE MEX GUIDANCE...AGAIN...THE MEX APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT 97 AT BNA FOR WED. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
AND GO 94. A GENERAL UNDERCUT WILL BE UTILIZED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
752 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION NEARING TENNESSEE RIVER AT 0030Z HAS PULLED
AHEAD OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND ALONG WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS BUT THERE
STILL COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST
TENNESSEE DOWN INTO LOUISIANA AND A WAVE THAT HAS JUST DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONT IN LOUISIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 EXTENDS ALL ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION TRAINING
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH WEST
TENNESSEE AND WAS 40 MILES WEST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AT 00Z. AM
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...EXPECT STORM STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SLUGGISH UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT LATE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE DOWN INTO
EASTERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH COLDER TEMPS
SWINGS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MESOSCALE...STORM CELL MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SUMNER MAY BE MORE
OF A RED HERRING BUT DOES HAVE A SUPERCELLULAR APPEARANCE (ITS GOT
THE LOOK). INBOUND WINDS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 35 KNOTS AT 2326Z.
STORM HAS TURNED RIGHT LAST 20 MINUTES TAPPING ENVIORNMENTAL WINDS
AND MORE HELICITY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 MBAR COLD TEMP AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
21Z. THIS AXIS OF COLDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN SWEEPING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS OF CURRENT WW SHORTLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY
IN THOSE AREAS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SREF RUN WEAKENS INSTABILITY
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
OUT BY H-TRIPLE-R HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. THINK BEST SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND BEGIN WEAKENING BY 03Z AS IT
APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 03Z AND 06Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
HE BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN
MIDDLE TN AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST.
LATEST LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STACKED NICELY AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM IOWA. THESE 2 FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PHASE AND WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE ISOL TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG LEVELS.
THEN...LATER TONIGHT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID STATE...A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN REACH STRONG LEVELS WITH
HIGH WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. TIMING OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 8PM TO 2AM ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND 11PM TO 5AM ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR DATA APPEARS TO WANT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES INTO EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
ON MONDAY...NAM MODEL WILL BE TOSSED AS GRAPHICS DEPICT NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS AT 18Z...AND THIS IN TURN HAS EVOKED OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NUMERICAL MET DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SFC WITH DEWS IN THE LOWER 60S. GFS AND MAV DATA SHOWS EVEN
LOWER DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CAPES REINFORCED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING PATTERN. COULD SEE ISOL TO SCT STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION...WIND AND HAIL.
MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR TO WORK IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS
EASTWARD. POPS WILL THEREFORE SHUTDOWN WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A DEFINITIVE WARMING TREND WILL BE AT HAND AS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER TX AND OUR HEIGHTS RISE.
IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS FOR SAT OR SUN. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF PLATEAU.
VERSUS THE MEX GUIDANCE...AGAIN...THE MEX APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT 97 AT BNA FOR WED. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
AND GO 94. A GENERAL UNDERCUT WILL BE UTILIZED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH WEST
TENNESSEE AND WAS 40 MILES WEST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AT 00Z. AM
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...EXPECT STORM STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SLUGGISH UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT LATE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE DOWN INTO
EASTERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH COLDER TEMPS
SWINGS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MESOSCALE...STORM CELL MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SUMNER MAY BE MORE
OF A RED HERRING BUT DOES HAVE A SUPERCELLULAR APPEARANCE (ITS GOT
THE LOOK). INBOUND WINDS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 35 KNOTS AT 2326Z.
STORM HAS TURNED RIGHT LAST 20 MINUTES TAPPING ENVIORNMENTAL WINDS
AND MORE HELICITY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 MBAR COLD TEMP AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
21Z. THIS AXIS OF COLDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN SWEEPING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS OF CURRENT WW SHORTLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY
IN THOSE AREAS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SREF RUN WEAKENS INSTABILITY
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
OUT BY H-TRIPLE-R HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. THINK BEST SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND BEGIN WEAKENING BY 03Z AS IT
APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 03Z AND 06Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
HE BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN
MIDDLE TN AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST.
LATEST LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STACKED NICELY AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM IOWA. THESE 2 FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PHASE AND WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE ISOL TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG LEVELS.
THEN...LATER TONIGHT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID STATE...A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN REACH STRONG LEVELS WITH
HIGH WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. TIMING OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 8PM TO 2AM ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND 11PM TO 5AM ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR DATA APPEARS TO WANT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES INTO EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
ON MONDAY...NAM MODEL WILL BE TOSSED AS GRAPHICS DEPICT NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS AT 18Z...AND THIS IN TURN HAS EVOKED OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NUMERICAL MET DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SFC WITH DEWS IN THE LOWER 60S. GFS AND MAV DATA SHOWS EVEN
LOWER DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CAPES REINFORCED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING PATTERN. COULD SEE ISOL TO SCT STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION...WIND AND HAIL.
MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR TO WORK IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS
EASTWARD. POPS WILL THEREFORE SHUTDOWN WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A DEFINITIVE WARMING TREND WILL BE AT HAND AS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER TX AND OUR HEIGHTS RISE.
IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS FOR SAT OR SUN. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF PLATEAU.
VERSUS THE MEX GUIDANCE...AGAIN...THE MEX APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT 97 AT BNA FOR WED. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
AND GO 94. A GENERAL UNDERCUT WILL BE UTILIZED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT STORM STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SLUGGISH UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT LATE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE DOWN INTO
EASTERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH COLDER TEMPS
SWINGS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
.MESOSCALE...STORM CELL MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SUMNER MAY BE MORE
OF A RED HERRING BUT DOES HAVE A SUPERCELLULAR APPEARANCE (ITS GOT
THE LOOK). INBOUND WINDS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 35 KNOTS AT 2326Z.
STORM HAS TURNED RIGHT LAST 20 MINUTES TAPPING ENVIORNMENTAL WINDS
AND MORE HELICITY.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 MBAR COLD TEMP AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
21Z. THIS AXIS OF COLDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN SWEEPING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS OF CURRENT WW SHORTLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY
IN THOSE AREAS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SREF RUN WEAKENS INSTABILITY
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
OUT BY H-TRIPLE-R HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. THINK BEST SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND BEGIN WEAKENING BY 03Z AS IT
APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 03Z AND 06Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
HE BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN
MIDDLE TN AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST.
LATEST LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STACKED NICELY AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM IOWA. THESE 2 FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PHASE AND WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE ISOL TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG LEVELS.
THEN...LATER TONIGHT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID STATE...A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN REACH STRONG LEVELS WITH
HIGH WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. TIMING OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 8PM TO 2AM ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND 11PM TO 5AM ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR DATA APPEARS TO WANT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES INTO EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
ON MONDAY...NAM MODEL WILL BE TOSSED AS GRAPHICS DEPICT NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS AT 18Z...AND THIS IN TURN HAS EVOKED OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NUMERICAL MET DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SFC WITH DEWS IN THE LOWER 60S. GFS AND MAV DATA SHOWS EVEN
LOWER DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CAPES REINFORCED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING PATTERN. COULD SEE ISOL TO SCT STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION...WIND AND HAIL.
MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR TO WORK IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS
EASTWARD. POPS WILL THEREFORE SHUTDOWN WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A DEFINITIVE WARMING TREND WILL BE AT HAND AS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER TX AND OUR HEIGHTS RISE.
IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS FOR SAT OR SUN. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF PLATEAU.
VERSUS THE MEX GUIDANCE...AGAIN...THE MEX APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT 97 AT BNA FOR WED. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
AND GO 94. A GENERAL UNDERCUT WILL BE UTILIZED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
849 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENINGS SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.87
AND 1.56 INCHES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO...BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE COAST. WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA AND CONVERGENCE AT 200-300 MB. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTIER THAN IT WAS TODAY.
OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED ACROSS SE TX AND AM EXPECTING THE
CIRRUS SHIELD TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST AND TO THE WEST OF SE TX. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED ABOUT PATCHY FOG IN RURAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH GROUNDS
REMAINING WET AND LIGHT WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS ON MONDAY KINDA
CAUGHT ME BY SURPRISE. 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BREAKABLE CAP AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR IS
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES AND GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HI-RES
ARW. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SE TX AT 16Z
SO FEEL SOME PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP WITH FURTHER HEATING. ADDED VCSH
FOR MON AFTN AND WILL WAIT FOR 00Z RUNS BEFORE EITHER ADDING
THUNDER OR REMOVING PCPN ALL TOGETHER. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 94 74 95 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 93 75 94 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 87 80 88 80 / 30 20 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED ACROSS SE TX AND AM EXPECTING THE
CIRRUS SHIELD TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST AND TO THE WEST OF SE TX. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED ABOUT PATCHY FOG IN RURAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH GROUNDS
REMAINING WET AND LIGHT WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS ON MONDAY KINDA
CAUGHT ME BY SURPRISE. 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BREAKABLE CAP AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR IS
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES AND GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HI-RES
ARW. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SE TX AT 16Z
SO FEEL SOME PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP WITH FURTHER HEATING. ADDED VCSH
FOR MON AFTN AND WILL WAIT FOR 00Z RUNS BEFORE EITHER ADDING
THUNDER OR REMOVING PCPN ALL TOGETHER. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
DISCUSSION...
PCPN CONTINUING TO WEAKEN/MOVE ON OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. SKIES
MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CLEAR BUT THEY SHOULD EVENTUALLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE RAIN CHANCES COULD HANG ON FOR ONE MORE DAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION (ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS). WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING TOM-
ORROW BUT THE AIRMASS THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW UN-
STABLE THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY
TODAY. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR SE TX
WX THE REST OF THE WEEK AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S. 41
MARINE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH AXIS PUSHES BY THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AREA BUT EVENTUALLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK WITH GENERALLY LOW SEAS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 94 74 95 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 93 75 94 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 87 80 88 80 / 30 20 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...44
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AROUND THE VCT AREA WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY FOR EASTERN TAF SITES. MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MODERATE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE
AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS KALI AND KCRP THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL SITES LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO TURN TO EAST
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO A MODERATE FLOW IN EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AT END OF THE PERIOD CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN INCREASING
AND SITES WILL REACH MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH A WEAK MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH RESIDING OVER SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION /PWAT VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES/ EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED TO THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. BOTH THE TEXAS TECH AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVING
INLAND...THOUGH HRRR KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION
OFFSHORE AND EARLIER IN THE MORNING. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES. AS BOUNDARY MOVES TO
THE NORTH THIS MORNING WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETURN TO A WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TAIL END OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ON MONDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OUT OF
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BEHIND MONDAY OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND COASTAL BEND ALONG WITH POOL OF HIGHER MOISTURE. COULD BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND BENEATH IT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS INTO A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALSO WORKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HIGH ENOUGH VALUES AND
MARGINAL MID LEVELS TEMPS ACROSS THE CRP CWA TO SUPPORT 10-20 POPS
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE COASTAL BEND DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SHIFTING INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 95 79 96 78 / 10 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 75 91 75 92 76 / 10 20 10 20 10
LAREDO 78 98 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 75 96 76 96 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 80 91 78 / 10 20 10 20 10
COTULLA 76 99 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 95 76 95 76 / 10 20 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 90 79 90 79 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
REALLY TOUGH DECISION ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THINK WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AND CONVECTION
FORMING TO THE SW OF MOST TERMINALS...WILL GO AHEAD WITH VCTS
WORDING FOR TAFS KIAH SOUTHWARD. WILL KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF
KCXO/KUTS/KCLL TAFS. GFS SEEMS TO BE ONLY MODEL HANDLING CURRENT
CONVECTION WELL WITH 15Z HRRR NOT TOO BAD. GET A 20KT LLJ BACK
TONIGHT SO MAY SEE SOME LOW STRATOCU DECK FORM BUT WILL KEEP VFR
CIGS FOR NOW. TOMORROW MORNING LOOKING MORE INTERESTING AS GFS
HINTS AT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
OK/TX PANHANDLE MAY BE INITIATING CONVECTION LATE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. WENT WITH VCTS AGAIN TO HINT AT THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITIES.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE GOING FCST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ONGOING PCPN TRENDS ALONG THE COAST (IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW). HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTN. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. 41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WITH
OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM WHARTON TO THE ANGLETON AREA TO HIGH ISLAND. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS
NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE AREA BECOMES POSITIONED ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IF THE
MODELS ARE CORRECT IN BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO OUR AREA TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL
END UP DRY AND WARMER WITH SOME INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S.
ON AVERAGE...THE DATE THAT CLL REACHES 100 DEGREES IS JULY 15TH...AND
FOR IAH IS JULY 18TH. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 71 91 73 93 / 10 10 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 72 92 74 93 / 20 10 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 86 77 87 79 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS KALI AND KCRP THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL SITES LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO TURN TO EAST
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO A MODERATE FLOW IN EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AT END OF THE PERIOD CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN INCREASING
AND SITES WILL REACH MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH A WEAK MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH RESIDING OVER SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION /PWAT VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES/ EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED TO THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. BOTH THE TEXAS TECH AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVING
INLAND...THOUGH HRRR KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION
OFFSHORE AND EARLIER IN THE MORNING. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES. AS BOUNDARY MOVES TO
THE NORTH THIS MORNING WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETURN TO A WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TAIL END OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ON MONDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OUT OF
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BEHIND MONDAY OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND COASTAL BEND ALONG WITH POOL OF HIGHER MOISTURE. COULD BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND BENEATH IT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS INTO A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALSO WORKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HIGH ENOUGH VALUES AND
MARGINAL MID LEVELS TEMPS ACROSS THE CRP CWA TO SUPPORT 10-20 POPS
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE COASTAL BEND DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SHIFTING INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 78 95 79 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 90 75 91 75 92 / 30 10 20 10 20
LAREDO 96 78 98 75 96 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 91 75 96 76 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 83 80 91 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
COTULLA 95 76 99 75 98 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 89 77 95 76 95 / 30 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 79 90 79 90 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
415 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH A WEAK MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH RESIDING OVER SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION /PWAT VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES/ EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED TO THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. BOTH THE TEXAS TECH AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVING
INLAND...THOUGH HRRR KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION
OFFSHORE AND EARLIER IN THE MORNING. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES. AS BOUNDARY MOVES TO
THE NORTH THIS MORNING WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETURN TO A WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TAIL END OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ON MONDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OUT OF
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BEHIND MONDAY OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND COASTAL BEND ALONG WITH POOL OF HIGHER MOISTURE. COULD BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND BENEATH IT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS INTO A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALSO WORKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HIGH ENOUGH VALUES AND
MARGINAL MID LEVELS TEMPS ACROSS THE CRP CWA TO SUPPORT 10-20 POPS
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE COASTAL BEND DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SHIFTING INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 78 95 79 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 90 75 91 75 92 / 30 10 20 10 20
LAREDO 96 78 98 75 96 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 91 75 96 76 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 83 80 91 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
COTULLA 95 76 99 75 98 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 89 77 95 76 95 / 30 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 79 90 79 90 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1127 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A GENERAL
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH AN ASSOCIATED CIRRUS CANOPY ALREADY
ADVECTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX. THE LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN
AREA OF GREATER STABILITY. LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL...HOWEVER..SEE A LOT OF
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE FIRST 12-18 HRS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME AFTERNOON CU GENERALLY
ABOVE 5 KFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IF ANYTHING
DEVELOPS IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH BY 15Z AND INCREASING TO
12-15 KTS BY MIDDAY. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KSJT
AND KABI.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NM WILL
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT OVERSPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER. IF
IT DOES INDEED REMAIN INTACT...THE TIMING WILL BE AROUND 12...
FAVORING THE KABI OR KSJT TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 12-15 KTS /WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES/
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
SHORT TERM...
.THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INTO A
COMPLEX LATER TONIGHT...ENTERING WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND THE NORTH EDWARDS PLATEAU AROUND 4 AM. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE NAM DISSIPATES ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF
THE AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AND GFS AS CONVECTION SHOULD
SUSTAIN ITSELF GIVEN THE SHORT WAVE AND A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
JET THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING. WENT WITH
20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTH
EDWARDS PLATEAU. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS
KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...WEAKENING OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BIG COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS TEXAS NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A HOT AND DRY FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 63 89 72 93 74 / 20 20 10 5 5
SAN ANGELO 62 92 72 96 74 / 30 20 5 5 5
JUNCTION 62 91 70 93 73 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
829 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE SHIFTING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MORE SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE EAST ON
MONDAY. MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
THIS FEATURE PIVOTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RAP LOSE WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THIS
TIME...WITH NAM HOLDING ONTO IT. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...WILL
LEAVE OUT THUNDER MENTION LATER TONIGHT.
SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SHOWERS...SO WILL HAVE POPS
AT LEAST IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE AS THEY PIVOT ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SHOWERS WOULD THEN SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAINING.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LOW CEILINGS AND WEAKENING WINDS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE DENSE
FOG...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED. LOWS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT TAF SITES ON AND OFF TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON IF CLOUDS MIX OUT AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE
AFTER 06Z MONDAY INTO MOST OF MONDAY MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND WINDS WEAKEN. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND
ALTERNATE MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED...AND COULD GET A BIT LOWER. NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS.
CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE LEVELS AS WELL.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS BY 17Z
MONDAY...THEN TO VFR LEVELS BY 21Z MONDAY. CEILINGS MAY MIX OUT AT
MADISON DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD MIX OUT MONDAY
EVENING AT ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S OVER COLDER LAKE WATERS IN THE
MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. DENSE FOG IS A POSSIBILITY...AS VISIBILITIES OF ONLY 1
MILE OR LESS ARE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD PATCHY DENSE
FOG. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW WILL DRAW CLOSER BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA. ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF THIS IN FAR WESTERN WI WITH A
BAND OF SHRA LIFTING NORTH WITH A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST. PROGS
GRADUALLY SHIFT QPF ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN IOWA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS LATER IN THE NIGHT. BELIEVE
THUNDER IN IOWA HELPED ALONG BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY. NAM
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON SO WILL LEAVE A BIT OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS MAINLY
FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD CIRCULATION IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SHIFT TO OHIO. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL RH PROGGD TO LINGER SO EXPECT TO BE BATTLING A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THE OUTSET. SOME DRIER AIR
AND NVA KICKS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOS GUID AND LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS QUITE SLOW TO SCOUR THINGS OUT. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
MUCH MORE DRIER/MIXED PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE THE GFS HAS
MORE 900 MILLIBAR MOISTURE WITH AN INVERSION. GIVEN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WRAPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM THINK THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC SOUNDINGS FIT BETTER AT THIS POINT.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIP EXIT THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR A BRIEF TIME. 925MB TEMPS WARM
UP NICELY FOR TUESDAY...REACHING 21-23C BY LATE AFTERNOON. COUPLE
THIS WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID
80S...THOUGH A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ALSO SETTING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS IS A DECENT SCENARIO FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PUMPING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT
REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THE MODELS ARE HAVING
TIMING/LOCATION ISSUES WITH THE SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
EXPECTED TO ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF I-94...BUT CAN/T
RULE IT OUT FARTHER NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS...POSSIBLY AND MCS...WOULD BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...OUT OF WISCONSIN...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
THINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY NICE THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH SHOW A MID LEVEL TROF RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE...DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN. THEY BOTH DEVELOP
SOME PRECIP WITH IT THAT ROLLS IN ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY IS
QUESTIONABLE...AS THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE PRECIP WHILE THE EC IS
DRY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NW IA. BAND OF SHRA
LIFTING NORTH ALONG AND JUST EAST OF MISS RIVER. LOW PROGGD TO MOVE
INTO CNTRL IL TNGT AND INTO OHIO MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME SOME
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POTENTIAL INCREASES AS SRN WI BECOMES BETTER
SITUATED IN THE MOISTURE/LIFT ZONE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS ESE
FROM IOWA. WILL BRING IN SOME LOWER CEILINGS TOO AS THESE ARE MOST
WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM IN IOWA/MN. SOME COVERAGE OF IFR CIGS AS WELL
LATER TNGT INTO MONDAY MORNING PER SREF CEILING PROBS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
640 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH TO MISSOURI...AND RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...AN UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED IN NORTHWEST IA WITH 500MB
STANDARDIZED DEVIATIONS OF 1.5 BELOW NORMAL. MAIN SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WHICH MOVED
NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...HAS
LIFTED INTO NORTHERN MN AND WESTERN UPPER MI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THESE ARE A RESULT
OF COOL AIR ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ALLOWING FOR SURFACE BASED
CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG GIVEN TEMPERATURES OF 65-75F AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST IA AT THE SURFACE HAS PROVIDED A FOCUSED AREA
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH
THE MAIN CLEARING LINE TO THE WEST OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE UPPER LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD...TRACKING IT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
WESTERN OHIO BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE PUSHED BY
AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA HEADING TO THE EAST. THIS
MEANS THE DRYING AND CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL EVENTUALLY GET HERE. TIMING IS IMPORTANT...THOUGH...BECAUSE IF
THE CLEARING MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THE
RECENT RAINS WILL FAVOR FOG AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
VARIOUS MODEL 700MB AND 500MB RH FIELDS SUGGEST THESE WILL DRY OUT
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT 925-850MB RH
FIELDS STAY PRETTY MOIST TO FULLY SATURATED ALL THE WAY WEST TO SAY
FARMINGTON MN AT 12Z MONDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE ON A RADIATION FOG
EVENT IS VERY LOW. HIRES ARW VISIBILITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE BULK
OF THE FOG ENDS UP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF MN AND IA AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERN WI...LEAVING OUR AREA MAYBE WITH SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG AT BEST. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA WITH THE THOUGHT OF LOW STRATUS
IN PLACE TONIGHT. BETTER SHOT FOR CLEARING SHOULD COME DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...SPREADING WEST TO EAST...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
AWAY AND DAYTIME MIXING CAN GET RID OF THE CLOUDS.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION...ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECTING
THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. BY 12Z MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY. ON MONDAY...AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH IS
PROGGED TO LAY UP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG PLUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH MAY YIELD
SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THUS...HAVE KEPT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES
GOING...MAINLY AFTER 15Z AND OVER CENTRAL WI. NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
PARAMETER WOULD FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM OVER SOUTHEAST
WI...AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF WIND SHOULD ALLOW FOR JUST A VERY SLOW DROP. A BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE IN THIS SITUATION...RESULTING IN LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GRADUALLY MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C FAVOR
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
FOCUS REMAINS ON POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST REMAINS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. PLENTY OF WARM AIR WILL EXIST
UNDER THE RIDGE WITH 850MB STANDARDIZED TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
CLIMBING TO 1.5-2.5 ABOVE NORMAL OVER KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGING AND
WARMING TO HAVE A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. HOW FAR NORTH THIS WARM
FRONT GETS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/FLOODING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE FEATURE HELPING TO PULL THE WARM FRONT NORTH APPEARS TO BE THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS UPPER LOW
COMES ACROSS UTAH AND WYOMING ON TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF IT SHOULD PROPEL THE FRONT NORTH TO AT LEAST I-70 BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY PER MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 09.12Z NAM/CANADIAN LIFT IT
ALMOST TO I-80 IN IOWA AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE IT ENDS UP AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY IS CRITICAL BECAUSE THERE IS A VERY STRONG CONSENSUS FOR
MCS ACTIVITY TO FIRE JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING...ON THE
EDGE OF THE 700MB CAPPING...THEN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST PER CORFIDI
VECTORS. MODELS TRENDS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST A
FARTHER SOUTH POSITION WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT IT IS STILL HARD TO
SAY AT THIS TIME WHETHER IT GETS BOTTLED UP NEAR THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER OR GETS PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS US HWY 20. SINCE THE TREND
HAS BEEN SOUTH...SHIFTED THE POPS ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO COME BETTER IN-LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS. THESE
MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN LATER FORECASTS.
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST TIME PERIOD RIGHT NOW FOR AN MCS WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90...WOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE:
1. SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
EVENING SKIES AND MOIST SOILS.
2. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 14-17C NORTH TO SOUTH.
3. POTENTIAL FOR A DRIER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE MCS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTING OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE MAY NOT BE ANY INSTABILITY LEFT BY THE TIME THE
UPPER LOW...LIKELY A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE NOW...BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. 09.12Z GFS/CANADIAN ARE DRY...BUT
THE 09.12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS SOME ISO-SCT CONVECTION...THUS SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS
EXISTS FOR A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AMPLIFYING A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SETS UP A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING TO TAKE THAT SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
AT THE TIME NEAR/OVER THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A DRIER...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FORECAST. A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND NORMAL. ON FRIDAY...PART OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
REST OF IT APPEARS TO RETROGRADE WEST SLIGHTLY. THE PART THAT EJECTS
NORTHEAST HELPS TO PUSH THE RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...YIELDING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A COLD FRONT APPROACH/CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...
REQUIRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAY BE DEALING WITH
MCS ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...THOUGH PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE MCSS WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THE COLD FRONT WILL BE. THE
09.12Z GFS/ECMWF HANG IT UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS LINGERING...COULD BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
STACKED LOW ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AHEAD AND NORTHEAST OF LOW
WITH BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SOME INSTABILITY ALSO CREATING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXIST ALONG AND NEAR MINNESOTA/
IOWA BORDER...MVFR MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GOING THROUGH EVENING.
AS LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST...AND ANY MINOR INSTABILITY
DISSIPATES BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SHIFT OUT OR END
OVERNIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF LIFR
CONDITIONS OR REAL LOW VISIBILITIES BUT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF LOW.
AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO ADVECT EAST...STRATUS FIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP FROM
WEST TO EAST FOR IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
252 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST WI.
THE NORTHEAST WI SHORTWAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING NORTHEAST OF I-94. MORE SHOWERS
EXIST OVER WESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST MN AND BACK INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND INCREASING 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12Z RAOB
DATA FROM GGW AND UNR SHOWED 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 40-60 METERS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE RANGES FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PER GOES DERIVED IMAGERY...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH IS 100-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALTOSTRATUS
HAS SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AIDED TOO BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN A RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THAT NORTHEAST
WI SHORTWAVE.
MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND WITH THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SLOW IT DOWN AND DIG SOUTHEAST MORE. COMPARE AT 12Z
SUNDAY WHERE THE 07.12Z NAM DEPICTED A FORMING UPPER LOW NEAR
MONTEVIDEO MN...AND NOW THE 08.12Z NAM IS NEAR SIOUX CITY IA. THE
08.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR OMAHA. THIS
HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST. WITH THE
GENERAL SLOW DOWN OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOSED
OFF UPPER LOW THAT FORMS...HAVE DELAYED THE SPREAD EASTWARD OF THE
SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SLOW DOWN RESULTS IN INSTABILITY TAKING
LONGER TO GET NORTH INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE PULLED MOST OF THE
THUNDER CHANCES FOR TONIGHT EXCEPT IN NORTHEAST IA LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
INTERESTINGLY...THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 SEPARATE SHOWER BANDS FOR
TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS A WARM ADVECTION BAND...SEEN ON THE 310 K
SURFACE AND OBSERVED RIGHT NOW ON RADAR BETWEEN ROCHESTER AND
CHARLES CITY. THIS BAND IS HIGHER BASED AND HAVING TO CONTEND WITH
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR...PRECLUDING ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAP/HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT OF THIS BAND
SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. TRIED TO PLAY THIS BAND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH SOME DRYING INDICATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. THE NEXT
SHOWER BAND WOULD BE THE TRUE WARM CONVEYOR BELT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FORMING UPPER LOW. THIS REALLY STARTS TO GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
FOR SUNDAY...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL SLIDE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING...THEN GET STUCK AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS INTO
CENTRAL IA. IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE SOME FORM OF THE BELT
WEAKENING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS THE FORCING FOCUS
SHIFTS UP TOWARDS CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...BEING IN AGEOSTROPHIC
CURVATURE DIVERGENCE AT 500MB ...PLUS DAYTIME HEATING AND MINIMAL
CAPPING SHOULD YIELD PERSISTENT SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY AS THE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPES UPWARDS
OF 500 TO AT MOST 1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY...AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY 25 KT OR LESS...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANZIED SEVERE STORMS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES...IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR...WOULD STAY WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE PROGGED SURFACE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW WHILE A RIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS AND NAM WANT TO PUSH THE LOW EAST
INTO INDIANA WHILE THE GEM/EC LINGER IT FARTHER WEST WITH OUR AREA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. EITHER WAY...APPEARS PR THE BUFKIT DATA
THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT GIVEN STEEP
LOWER-LEVEL LAPSE RATE. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WHILE THE NAM/GEM ARE BOTH DRY GIVEN
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER THE CUMULUS.
WILL TAKE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AT THIS TIME WHICH INCLUDES A
20-40 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...TAPERING INTO
THE 20-30 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE.
BRIEF RESPITE FROM RAIN EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH FURTHER RIDGE-BUILDING TAKING PLACE INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE
BRIEF INDEED AS MODELS SHOWING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/IA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PUSHES A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN IA THROUGH NORTHERN IL WITH MODERATE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IMPINGING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS///SOUTH OF I-90//. THIS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NUDGE UPWARD INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. IF THIS
COMES TO FRUITION...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS SOUTH OF I-90. LATEST ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TAPERING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE CONUS WITH
WARMING ACROSS OUR AREA. DOESNT APPEAR TO BE COMPLETELY RAIN-FREE AT
THIS POINT AS A COUPLE WEAK WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR PERIODIC
SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COULD SEE THIS PERIOD
BECOMING DRY WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS GIVEN STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL CAP. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A MUCH-NEEDED DRYING
OUT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A FEW DIFFERENT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING TOWARD KRST/KLSE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE BIG IDEA OF DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FIRST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO SE MINNESOTA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NOT REACH KLSE UNTIL AFTER 02Z. THEN
AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NEARBY...A STEADIER BAND OF RAIN WILL PIVOT
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST...HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES COME AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KRST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AND
LOW-END MVFR AT KLSE. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MORNING
SINCE INSTABILITY WEDGE IS KEPT WELL SOUTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING IMPROVING CEILINGS. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THIS MAY WARRANT A THUNDER
MENTION BEGINNING BY 18Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94 WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI...THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM. ISOLATED TSRA ARE ALSO
OCCURRING WITH CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE MEDFORD-
WAUSAU AREA. LOOKING AT THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM 500-300MB IT
IS ASTOUNDINGLY STRONG FOR JUNE WITH A VERY NICE DIPOLE OF
LIFT...FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE POST-WAVE. THUS...HAVE REALLY
INCREASED THE MORNING RAIN CHANCES AND ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST.
WOULD THINK MOS OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD BE MOST
ENHANCED THIS MORNING WITH A STABILITY BUILDING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE SUBSIDENT PART OF THE IMPULSE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
SUFFER A BIT TODAY AS WELL...BUT THIS IS TRICKY AND DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS WITH WHEN THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND WHEN ANY
THUNDER MAY OCCUR.
CURRENTLY...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS WERE NOTED VIA WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08.07Z RAP ANALYSIS WITH ONE WEST TO EAST TROUGH
FROM THE UP OF MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER...MORE
VIGOROUS...WAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A LOW ANALYZED IN EASTERN MONTANA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WHAT
APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 700-500MB. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE DRY TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN UNTIL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE WAVE...SO EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAX
OUT IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
THICKENS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WHEN THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN AS THE MAIN WING
OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE TREND WITH
THE 08.00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO GO A BIT SLOWER AND SOUTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN GETTING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE IN SOUTH DAKOTA...EXPECT THAT
THE BEST INITIAL THUNDER CHANCES WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST CHANNEL OF 850-925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES UP INTO
THE REGION. BASED ON 08.00Z GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
THUNDER WEST OF THE RIVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF THE RIVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH FOLLOWS WHERE THIS MAIN LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT IS.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ROUND AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
GOING INTO THE SUNDAY THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND WEAKENING OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A GENERAL TRACK OF IT GOING THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GETS CUT
OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND APPEARS TO TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. OF THESE THREE
MODELS...THE GFS PRODUCES THE MOST 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT ALSO HAS SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S WHICH...WHEN MODIFIED TO AROUND 60 IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...ONLY PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO RELEGATED TO THE
LOWEST 1 OR 2KM...SO THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH.
THE 08.00Z NAM IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLIER AS IT IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE CLOSING OFF OF THE LOW AND POSES SOME CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WPC MENTIONS IN THE PMDHMD THIS MORNING THAT WHILE THE
00Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREFERENCE OF THE OTHER MODELS...IT
HAS ISSUES IN HOW IT IS HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. DESPITE THIS...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE ALL SHOWN
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE DRY LINE. THE 08.00Z NAM ALSO
DEVELOPS TOO HIGH OF SURFACE DEW POINTS...MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH
YIELDS TOO HIGH OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...EVEN MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
FOR A 60F SURFACE DEW POINT STILL BRINGS ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALL IN THE LOWEST 2-3KM...BUT DOES HAVE A
LOT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH IT. DESPITE THIS SCENARIO NOT
LOOKING VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
LEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS
WITH STRONG WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH TRACKS TO THE EAST AND A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS
LIKE A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN FALLING
ACROSS THIS REGION. PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 08.00Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH STARTING THIS RAIN UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING
IT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A FEW DIFFERENT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING TOWARD KRST/KLSE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE BIG IDEA OF DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FIRST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO SE MINNESOTA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NOT REACH KLSE UNTIL AFTER 02Z. THEN
AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NEARBY...A STEADIER BAND OF RAIN WILL PIVOT
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST...HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES COME AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KRST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AND
LOW-END MVFR AT KLSE. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MORNING
SINCE INSTABILITY WEDGE IS KEPT WELL SOUTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING IMPROVING CEILINGS. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THIS MAY WARRANT A THUNDER
MENTION BEGINNING BY 18Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
653 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94 WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI...THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM. ISOLATED TSRA ARE ALSO
OCCURRING WITH CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE MEDFORD-
WAUSAU AREA. LOOKING AT THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM 500-300MB IT
IS ASTOUNDINGLY STRONG FOR JUNE WITH A VERY NICE DIPOLE OF
LIFT...FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE POST-WAVE. THUS...HAVE REALLY
INCREASED THE MORNING RAIN CHANCES AND ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST.
WOULD THINK MOS OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD BE MOST
ENHANCED THIS MORNING WITH A STABILITY BUILDING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE SUBSIDENT PART OF THE IMPULSE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
SUFFER A BIT TODAY AS WELL...BUT THIS IS TRICKY AND DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS WITH WHEN THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND WHEN ANY
THUNDER MAY OCCUR.
CURRENTLY...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS WERE NOTED VIA WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08.07Z RAP ANALYSIS WITH ONE WEST TO EAST TROUGH
FROM THE UP OF MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER...MORE
VIGOROUS...WAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A LOW ANALYZED IN EASTERN MONTANA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WHAT
APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 700-500MB. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE DRY TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN UNTIL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE WAVE...SO EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAX
OUT IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
THICKENS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WHEN THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN AS THE MAIN WING
OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE TREND WITH
THE 08.00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO GO A BIT SLOWER AND SOUTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN GETTING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE IN SOUTH DAKOTA...EXPECT THAT
THE BEST INITIAL THUNDER CHANCES WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST CHANNEL OF 850-925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES UP INTO
THE REGION. BASED ON 08.00Z GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
THUNDER WEST OF THE RIVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF THE RIVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH FOLLOWS WHERE THIS MAIN LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT IS.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ROUND AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
GOING INTO THE SUNDAY THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND WEAKENING OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A GENERAL TRACK OF IT GOING THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GETS CUT
OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND APPEARS TO TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. OF THESE THREE
MODELS...THE GFS PRODUCES THE MOST 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT ALSO HAS SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S WHICH...WHEN MODIFIED TO AROUND 60 IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...ONLY PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO RELEGATED TO THE
LOWEST 1 OR 2KM...SO THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH.
THE 08.00Z NAM IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLIER AS IT IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE CLOSING OFF OF THE LOW AND POSES SOME CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WPC MENTIONS IN THE PMDHMD THIS MORNING THAT WHILE THE
00Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREFERENCE OF THE OTHER MODELS...IT
HAS ISSUES IN HOW IT IS HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. DESPITE THIS...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE ALL SHOWN
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE DRY LINE. THE 08.00Z NAM ALSO
DEVELOPS TOO HIGH OF SURFACE DEW POINTS...MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH
YIELDS TOO HIGH OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...EVEN MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
FOR A 60F SURFACE DEW POINT STILL BRINGS ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALL IN THE LOWEST 2-3KM...BUT DOES HAVE A
LOT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH IT. DESPITE THIS SCENARIO NOT
LOOKING VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
LEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS
WITH STRONG WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH TRACKS TO THE EAST AND A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS
LIKE A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN FALLING
ACROSS THIS REGION. PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 08.00Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH STARTING THIS RAIN UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING
IT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY MAKE FOR NICE FLYING WEATHER. A STRONG SYSTEM
WILL BE HEADING INTO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. WOULD THINK IFR IS MOST LIKELY 12Z SUNDAY AT KRST IN
-SHRA...WITH LOW MVFR AT KLSE...AND POSSIBLY IFR TOO.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS WITH WHEN THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND WHEN ANY
THUNDER MAY OCCUR.
CURRENTLY...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS WERE NOTED VIA WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08.07Z RAP ANALYSIS WITH ONE WEST TO EAST TROUGH
FROM THE UP OF MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER...MORE
VIGOROUS...WAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A LOW ANALYZED IN EASTERN MONTANA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WHAT
APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 700-500MB. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE DRY TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN UNTIL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE WAVE...SO EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAX
OUT IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
THICKENS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WHEN THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN AS THE MAIN WING
OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE TREND WITH
THE 08.00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO GO A BIT SLOWER AND SOUTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN GETTING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE IN SOUTH DAKOTA...EXPECT THAT
THE BEST INITIAL THUNDER CHANCES WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST CHANNEL OF 850-925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES UP INTO
THE REGION. BASED ON 08.00Z GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
THUNDER WEST OF THE RIVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF THE RIVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH FOLLOWS WHERE THIS MAIN LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT IS.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ROUND AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
GOING INTO THE SUNDAY THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND WEAKENING OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A GENERAL TRACK OF IT GOING THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GETS CUT
OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND APPEARS TO TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. OF THESE THREE
MODELS...THE GFS PRODUCES THE MOST 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT ALSO HAS SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S WHICH...WHEN MODIFIED TO AROUND 60 IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...ONLY PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO RELEGATED TO THE
LOWEST 1 OR 2KM...SO THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH.
THE 08.00Z NAM IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLIER AS IT IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE CLOSING OFF OF THE LOW AND POSES SOME CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WPC MENTIONS IN THE PMDHMD THIS MORNING THAT WHILE THE
00Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREFERENCE OF THE OTHER MODELS...IT
HAS ISSUES IN HOW IT IS HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. DESPITE THIS...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE ALL SHOWN
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE DRY LINE. THE 08.00Z NAM ALSO
DEVELOPS TOO HIGH OF SURFACE DEW POINTS...MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH
YIELDS TOO HIGH OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...EVEN MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
FOR A 60F SURFACE DEW POINT STILL BRINGS ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALL IN THE LOWEST 2-3KM...BUT DOES HAVE A
LOT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH IT. DESPITE THIS SCENARIO NOT
LOOKING VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
LEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS
WITH STRONG WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH TRACKS TO THE EAST AND A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS
LIKE A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN FALLING
ACROSS THIS REGION. PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 08.00Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH STARTING THIS RAIN UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING
IT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
ALTOSTRATUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES FROM THE DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING
THERE. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECLUDE RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION.
DRIER AIR BELOW THESE CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. PLAN ON THE HIGH TO SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS. THESE WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE
EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. SOME CONCERN
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT RST...BUT IT APPEARS THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED...AT LEAST
BEFORE 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING WINDS...EXPECTING
SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS THE TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE UP TO AT LEAST 3000-4000 FT ABOVE
THE GROUND...HAVE KEPT BOTH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS VFR. BETTER
SHOT FOR LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AFTER
06Z...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AFTER 06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS EXITING EAST OF OUR PANHANDLE ZONES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15Z HRRR INDICATES
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES DO NOT EXCEED 200 J/KG...SO
TSTORMS WILL BE WEAK AND PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE
RAINFALL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MID MORNING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY WAS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
THIS MORNING AND END IN THE EARLY EVENING, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z.
UPSTREAM THREE HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WERE UP TO 2MB BEHIND
THE FRONT AS OF 08Z. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR
TO THOSE OF FRIDAY. THE DAY WILL START OFF MILD...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION SLOWING WARMING DURING THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH TODAY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
THE CWA WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OF TODAY AS HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MONDAY...QUITE HOT WITH RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 18 CELSIUS...YIELDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 90S EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ACT TO PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...CIN...AND WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP OVER THE
NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
TUESDAY...WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD BUT WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM DOUGLAS TO LUSK...DRY
ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH PROJECTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES FROM
16 TO 18 CELSIUS.
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DUE TO INCREASING UPSLOPE WINDS. DRY DAY
WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 18 CELSIUS.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF...WITH
RESPECT TO THE HEAT. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DOUGLAS TO LUSK NEAR A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BEST CHANCES FOR TSTORMS
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH SCT050CB AT CHADRON. ELSEWHERE...TSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN TAFS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL GUST AS HIGH AS HIGH AS 35 KT ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...AND 25 KT TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE CURRENT GREEN-UP AND NON CRITICAL FUEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY OVER THE CWA AND THEN WILL WARM
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS WEEKEND AND THEN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE CWA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
OVER THE ROCKIES THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL PRODUCE THE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...WEILAND
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1051 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
STRONG SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND LARAMIE COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAIN HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS SO FAR. LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH
AROUND 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. WITH THESE TYPE OF VALUES...CONCERN
WILL STILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE
HAIL THREAT IS QUITE SMALL. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING EASTWARD OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
00-12Z...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT IN THAT REGION. THIS IS WHERE THE
STRONGEST ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE AS THE SYSTEM DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
SFC TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH
PRESSURE RISES AND A FROPA. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH NORTHWESTERLY 700MB
WINDS AROUND 30-35 KT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WHILE IT WILL BE
A BREEZY DAY...BELIEVE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST 850-700MB WINDS ARE OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PANHANDLE
FOR SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING LIGHT
QPF IN THE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE REAL WARM-UP
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. A RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS IT CROSSES THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE LARAMIE
RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE.
A CLOSED LOW ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OPENS UP WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH TUESDAY AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR
CONVECTION WILL SET UP FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX AS
THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS.
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WEST OF THE
GREAT BASIN...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEFLECT ANY
SHORTWAVES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST
ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS SHOW A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM RAWLINS TO CHADRON.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
RISING SUNDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 16C. HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD MONDAY...700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 19C...WHICH EQUATES TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH THE
MERCURY INTO THE 80S AND 90S. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
EQUALED OR EXCEEDED IN SOME AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRIM HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL REMAIN
WARM. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10 DEGREES...AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AS A RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED NEAR THIS WAVE.
WINDS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND THEN 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE
10-15 PERCENT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL ALSO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25-30 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FUELS ARE STILL GREEN AND DO NOT SUPPORT LARGE FIRE GROWTH...THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...LIEBL
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM NW ONTARIO THRU THE GREAT LKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE ARE 2 CLOSED LOWS UPSTREAM...ONE MOVING THRU THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO THE N OF MEAN RDG OVER
THE WRN CONUS. A SHRTWV IS MOVING INTO NE MN BTWN THE 2 CLOSED LOWS
AND GENERATING AN AREA RA OVER FAR NW LK SUP AND NE MN AS THE DPVA/
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH DEEP
MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. BUT SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LO IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ARE
TO THE S OF UPR MI...THERE IS NO DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN OVER UPR
MI...WITH AN ABSENCE OF SGNFT RADAR RETURNS OVER THE AREA DESPITE
MOCLDY SKIES. THE CLDS HAVE LIMITED THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP...WITH
MOST PLACES REPORTING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LO 60S EARLY THIS MRNG.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS ARE MOVING NE INTO UPR MI FM WI. THICKER
CLDS/SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE MOVING N THRU LWR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU NE MN.
TDAY...SHRTWV IN NE MN IS PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD INTO NW ONTARIO ON
THE SE FLANK OF NEARLY STNRY CLOSED LO OVER SASKATCHEWAN. DPVA/H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE PROGGED TO BRUSH THE
NW CWA INTO THIS AFTN BEFORE THE SHRTWV LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NE AND
GIVES WAY TO DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING. MODELS SHOW
BULK OF PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS SHRTWV PASSAGE REMAINING TO THE NW OF
EVEN THE KEWEENAW. SO OPTED TO CUT POPS TO NO HIER THAN SCHC THIS
MRNG OVER THE LAND CWA. DID ADD SCHC POPS OVER THE E TO ACCOUNT FOR
ISOLD -SHRA MOVING N THRU NRN LWR MI. EVEN AFT THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT
SWINGS TO THE N THIS AFTN...BULK OF RECENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
GENERATING QPF OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR W HALF OF THE CWA AS DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND LK BREEZE BNDRYS PROVIDE
SOME LLVL FOCUS. TENDED TO RAISE FCST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS MOVING NE FM WI AND ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC FORCING OVER MOST OF THE FA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE E...
WHERE MORE CLDS STREAMING NWD THRU LWR MI MIGHT HOLD DOWN THE
DIURNAL TEMP INCRS. EVEN THOUGH WARMING/DRYING ABV H6 WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS SETS IN AFT 18Z AND WL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CNVCTN...MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR THE INTERIOR
W FOR SFC T/TD OF 75/57 YIELDS SBCAPE NEAR 450 J/KG AND KINX OF 33.
GOING CHC POPS/SCHC OF TS LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD ORDER.
TNGT...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT...EXPECT DIURNAL SHRA
OVER MAINLY THE W HALF TO DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO RACE EWD ALONG THE
CNDN BORDER THRU TNGT IN THE FAST WLY FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
SASKATCHEWAN CLOSED LO AND APRCH THE NW CWA LATER WITH SOME
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...FAIRLY DRY MID LVLS/LLVL ACYC FLOW/
ABSENCE OF ANY DIURNAL HEATING WL LIMIT ACCOMPANYING POPS...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FOCUS OF THE ASSOCIATED FORCING IS FCST TO PASS
TO THE N. DID RETAIN SOME CHC POPS OVER THE NW CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS DISTURBANCE. OTRW...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR
WITH THE MID LVL DRYING/LGT WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SOME
RA MIGHT FALL THIS AFTN AND FURTHER MOISTEN THE LLVLS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN BY TUESDAY INDICATES STRING OF TROUGHS ACROSS
CANADA AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST CONUS AND NORTHEAST CONUS.
SHALLOW RIDGING IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THROUGH REST
OF THE WEEK TROUGHING OVER CANADA SPLITS WITH RIDGING ATTEMPTING TO
BUILD INTO CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EVENTUALLY THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES BY START OF NEXT WEEKEND. YET
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING BACK ACROSS UPPER LAKES TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAIN TO UPPER LAKES BUT
IT ALSO SHOULD NOT BE THAT COLD EITHER AS BULK OF COLDER AIR STAYS
LOCKED UP OVER WESTERN AND EASTERN CANADA CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING. TEMPS INLAND FROM LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN MOST
DAYS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME SINCE PREVAILING WINDS WILL
BE ONSHORE. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
MOST AREAS WELL INTO THE 70S. COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK FOR ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE ON THURSDAY WHEN TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY
IN THE 50S.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND POCKET OF H85-H7 MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING THEN OVR EASTERN CWA
DURING AFTN HOURS. THOUGH SHARPEST LIFT IN FORM OF H85-H7 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IMPACTS LK SUPERIOR AND ISLE ROYALE/KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH MIDDAY...RIBBON OF LIFT CROSSES REST OF CWA AS WELL. WEAK
FORCING AND SUBTLE MOISTENING POINTS TO LOW CHANCE POPS. BUT...KIND
OF SIMILAR TO TODAY...COULD SEE ISOLD DAYTIME SHRA AND EVEN TSRA AS
SFC CAPES POP UP TO 300-500J/KG OVR SCNTRL IN THE AFTN. H7-H5 WINDS
45-55KT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVR 30 KTS. DO NOT EXPECT THERE
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE STRONGER SHEAR
THOUGH SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS. DEEP DRYING IN H7 LAYER
QUICKLY ENDS ANY SHRA/TSRA BY LATE TUE AFTN. H7 DRYING AND NEUTRAL
HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES FROM ROCKIES TOWARD UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW/WARM FRONT SET UP FROM NEB INTO
NORTHERN IL WHILE H85 WARM FRONT IS NOT MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT.
EDGE OF H7 MOISTURE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN WI...BUT SINCE 1-6KM
MUCAPE IS BARELY INTO SOUTHERN MN AND CNTRL WI...HAVE HARD TIME
THINKING THAT THE INCREASE IN H7 MOSITURE WOULD RESULT IN NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF A SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK. NOT
WORTH PUTTING ANY POPS INTO SOUTHERN CWA. OTHER THING TO WATCH ON
WEDNESDAY IS SHORTWAVE TIED INTO NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHING INTO
ONTARIO. TREND IS FOR WAVE TO BE STRONGER...BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS
KEEP WAVE ON WNW-ESE TRACK OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR IN THE MORNING
AND OVER ONTARIO EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY AFTN. SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SHOULD SPUR ON SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA NORTH AND EAST OF LK SUPERIOR WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY
THE GEM-NH SHOWS THE WAVE DIGGING ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE ANY QPF OVR
UPR MICHIGAN THOUGH AND THAT IS ONLY OVR FAR EAST CWA. MAJORITY
RULES FOR NOW SO HAVE NOT PUT ANY POPS IN OVER THE EAST. MAX TEMPS
MAY SHOW VARIATION CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS LAKE COOLING IS ENHANCED
BY AFTN WITH DEVELOPING NORTH GRADIENT FLOW. MAY SEE TEMPS QUICKLY
RISE WEDNESDAY MORNING CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR THEN FALL OFF IN THE
AFTN. FARTHER INLAND...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S.
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE RESULTS IN H85-H7 WINDS VEERING MORE NORTH LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. H85 THERMAL TROUGH ALSO PRESENT. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHRA AS FORCING IS MINIMAL...BUT MAY SEE DECENT CLOUD
COVER IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN...H85 RH PROGS SHOWING LAKE
STABILIZING SIGNAL WITH MINIMUM RH SHOWING UP OVR LK SUPERIOR AFT
18Z. PROBABLY WILL SEE CLEARING DEVELOP CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER EAST DUE TO STABILIZING FLOW. EVEN WITH CLEARING WILL BE COOL
DAY ALONG LK SUPERIOR AS MOST LOCATIONS STAY IN THE 50S WITH STIFF
NORTHERLY WINDS. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO PERHAPS
LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND NOW EVEN THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AND GIVEN TREND OF HIGH STAYING AROUND LONGER...FRIDAY
NIGHT NOW LOOKING GENERALLY FREE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA EXCEPT FAR WEST
CWA.
WEEKEND FORECAST MUDDLED AS MID CONUS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVR CNTRL CANADA AND OVR
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TALKING DAY 6 AND 7 SO HARD TO
GET TOO HUNG UP ON THESE TYPE OF DETAILS YET. OVERALL THEME THOUGH
IS SLOWER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND/OR A GENERAL LACKING
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. CONSENSUS POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE USED BUT
DID PULL POPS OVER EASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY AS THAT AREA IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF STUBBORN SFC RIDGING. TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO READINGS THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
POSSIBLY WARMER IF THERE ARE LESS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
E TO SE PREVAILING FLOW SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AT
THE LOW-LEVELS...KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PD
DESPITE PCPN. WITH RAINFALL WETTING THE GROUND MORE SO AT
KIWD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS/FOG TO FORM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FROM A DOWNSLOPING
SE DIRECTION...POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL. EARLY MON AFTN...DAYTIME
HEATING MAY BEGIN TO POP A FEW SHRA...ESPECIALLY AROUND KIWD. BY
LATE MON EVENING...THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
AS LO PRES IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E TODAY...
EXPECT E-SE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH W-E WITH THE
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AND UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT. DID MAINTAIN
PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE SOME SHOWERS HAVE
FURTHER MOISTENED THE LOW LEVELS. THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THRU FRI...SO PLAN ON WINDS UNDER 15 KTS TUE THRU FRI.
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...UP TO 20 KTS IN
GUSTS...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR OVER THE STILL CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
LINGERING FOG PATCHES UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON FRI. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVER NW IA
DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS ND AND ADJACENT SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER SW CANADA. SHORTWAVE OVER IA
HAS MANAGED TO SWING A BAND OF SHRA N INTO WRN UPPER MI TODAY. SHRA
HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND PROBABLY SOME
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEW ENGLAND. ERN EDGE OF SHRA AREA HAS BATTLED
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS AT THE LOW/MID LEVELS PER 12Z KGRB/KAPX
SOUNDINGS. IT APPEARS SPRINKLES HAVE REACHED AS FAR E AS MEMONINEE
AND DICKINSON COUNTIES TODAY.
WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ERN EDGE OF PCPN BAND FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO DRIER AIR MASS...WILL SHOW A
DIMINISHING POP TREND OVER THE W DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
SPRINKLES MAY GET AS FAR E AS WRN MARQUETTE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...WITH
SHORTWAVE OVER IA DRIFTING ESE INTO IL TONIGHT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS
NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY FORCING FOR PCPN OVER UPPER MI. IN
FACT...PER QVECTORS...MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN
DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING OVER UPPER MI BTWN THE WAVE MOVING
INTO IL AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND THAT WILL
BE MOVING INTO FAR NE MN/NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH
OF THE FCST AREA IN AN AREA OF LITTLE/NO DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT.
SO...FCST TONIGHT WILL RETAIN THE IDEA OF HIGHER POPS OVER THE NW...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD ISLE ROYALE...AND LOW CHC/SCHC POPS ELSEWHERE...
EXCEPT FOR THE E WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT UNDER LINGERING
MID/UPPER RIDGING. A NUMBER OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW REMNANTS
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WRN LWR MI ROTATING NW INTO SCNTRL UPPER
MI THIS EVENING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT DOES HAPPEN.
SHORTWAVE THAT REACHES NE MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD MON. WAVE WILL SUPPORT BETTER PCPN CHANCES ACROSS
WRN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO PORTIONS OF NW UPPER MI MON MORNING.
MUCH OF THE FORCING WITH WAVE WILL THEN SHIFT N AND E OF THE AREA AS
THE AFTN WEARS ON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR AFTN
CONVECTION. NAM SHOWS MLCAPE INCREASING TO 150-500J/KG IN THE AFTN
WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. THE GFS HAS SIMILAR VALUES...BUT ITS INSTABILITY IS CONFINED
TO JUST THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TAIL END
OF DEPARTING DEEP LAYER FORCING STILL SKIRTING THE AREA IN THE
AFTN...AVBL INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR A MENTION OF
SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTN (CHC POPS OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF AND SCHC E). CONVECTION OVER THE W SHOULD BE FURTHER AIDED BY
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. OPTED TO INCLUDE SCHC THUNDER MENTION OVER
THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO
ONTARIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER TEXAS WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS IT IS...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
RIDGING AND A PASSING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TUESDAY. THOUGH THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND/PWATS UP TO 115 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED BY THIS RIDGE OVER LAND. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS PRIMARILY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SO CHANCE POPS ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
COULD POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL 00Z.
AS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. EXPECT MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THE RIDGE BOUNDARY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH. THIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER
MICHIGAN HOWEVER...LIKELY OVER CENTRAL/LOWER WI. THE UPPER LOW THAT
BROUGHT THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH UPPER MI ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION...OVER PRIMARILY ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WITH
RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVER UPPER MI.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET.
WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE ON THURSDAY AND MIXING TO
AROUND 950MB IN MOST LOCATIONS EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. REGIONS CLOSEST TO THE LAKES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES.
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST INCREASES WITH AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
EXPERIENCE FULL DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH...AND WITH BETTER MIXING TO
THE 850MB LEVEL/TEMPS AROUND 12-14C AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CROSS EASTWARD
INTO QUEBEC...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA/DEWPOINTS
NEARING 60F/ AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
E TO SE PREVAILING FLOW SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AT
THE LOW-LEVELS...KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PD
DESPITE PCPN. WITH RAINFALL WETTING THE GROUND MORE SO AT
KIWD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS/FOG TO FORM
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FROM A DOWNSLOPING
SE DIRECTION...POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL. EARLY MON AFTN...DAYTIME
HEATING MAY BEGIN TO POP A FEW SHRA...ESPECIALLY AROUND KIWD. BY
LATE MON EVENING...THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
AS LOW PRES OVER NW IA DRIFTS E...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND
20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO AROUND
25KT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR W THRU THIS EVENING DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. WITH SOME RAIN FALLING OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
RETURN AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR TUE THRU FRI. MUCH OF
THAT PERIOD WILL SEE WINDS AOB 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1224 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD TAPER OFF BEFORE 08Z ACROSS ALL AREA
TERMINALS WITH FOG AND LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING DURING THE OVER
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW LATE MON
EVENING AND BRING VCSH TO HIB AND INL...WITH ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z TO THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR -DZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT AT BRD FIRST...THEN HIB...DLH...HYR AND INL.
WILL LIKELY SEE IFR FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF
LIFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGH-END MVFR CIGS BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND VFR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW - MONDAY/
THE FOCUS IS ON THE WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HOW THAT WILL CONTINUE AND LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT I
HAVE AND CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS
FAR TIMING OF THE PCPN THROUGH THIS EVENING GOES SINCE THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL.
AT 300PM/2000Z...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NEW YORK INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED NEAR NW IOWA...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. A TROUGH BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE SASKATCHEWAN
LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO THE IOWA LOW. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WAS SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE IOWA LOW AND THE
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE WERE EASTERLY WINDS OF 5
TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE SE AND FAR N FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S DUE TO THE RAIN AND
COOL WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LOW IN NW IOWA WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT....WHILE THE TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
TROUGH. THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GENERALLY
LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
NEGLIGIBLE LATER TONIGHT...MAKING FOG LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND. THIS
HELP KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHLAND DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NW FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD BE
RELATED TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. I HAVE
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. I RAISED THE
FORECAST IN SOME AREAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT I THINK IT COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF THE NORTHLAND
GETS ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. I SIDED A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE MAY BE MORNING FOG AND
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW WELL IT CLEARS CONSIDERING LITTLE WIND TO
HELP MIX IT OUT. HOWEVER...IT AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHLAND
WILL FINALLY GET SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER FOR SUCH A LONG TIME.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE A
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE A SHORT WAVE WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SWEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY PROFILES WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PWATS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO NRN
ZONES...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND GONE WITH A DRY FCST OR JUST
MENTION OF SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT A H50 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES IN EXTENDED LOOK TO TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. HAVE KEPT A
DRY FCST WED/THURS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 76 53 75 / 10 10 10 0
INL 53 75 52 75 / 40 10 10 10
BRD 56 79 57 76 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 55 80 56 77 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 50 76 51 72 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
405 AM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SHOWER ACTIVITY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS
PUSHING OUT BY 12Z HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE KEPT
SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THUS...TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTION INTO THE GRIDS IN
THE EASTERN ZONES. ANY SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT AND BECOME REPLACED BY SUNNY SKIES BY THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST MONTANA BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL INDUCE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FLARING
UP. WILL EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH THE EARLY
JUNE SUNSHINE GOING TO WORK AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS WITH THE
RIDGING BUILDING IN.
MONDAY NIGHT...A REGIME OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRANSLATES INTO THE AREA. PVA OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL PROMOTE FORCED VERTICAL ASCENT. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENT HOWEVER ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS HAS A BAND IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...BUT HAS IT DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION AND GIVEN THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND ARGUMENTS ABOVE LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW
WILL NOTE THAT THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THIS LIKELY CORRESPONDS TO
A THERMAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. SHOULD CONVECTION
PUSH INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THIS TROUGH AXIS
COULD SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INITIATION.
WEDNESDAY...AN ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AS IT PUSHES INTO A NICE THETA-E RIDGE THAT
SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INITIATION WOULD BE
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ZONES. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS UPWARDS OF 1500
J/KG OF CAPE...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A NICE VEERING WIND PROFILE INDICATING PLENTY
OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER AN
INCH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
IS MUCH FURTHER WEST...WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH JUST YET TO
INSERT A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE GRIDS JUST YET...BUT A
WETTING RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE THAT MORE CLOSELY AND
SEE IF THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONTINUITY OR IF SOLUTIONS ARE LINING
UP BETTER. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES AS THERE IS UPWARDS OF 200-400 J/KG OF CIN PRESENT
IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS LENDS FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF
THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE WEST...AT LEAST INITIALLY. NOTE
THAT BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IS DEPICTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THUS...STORMS MAY INITIATE ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN
PUSH EASTWARD. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED WITH THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS IN KEEPS THE AREA IN A
VERY TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. WHICH LEADS TO
A HIGH LEVEL OF PREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN...HOWEVER IT ALL
WILL BE IN THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CLIMO POP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS AT
ITS HIGHEST WITH CHANCE LEVEL POPS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
WEST SHOULD SET UP FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT THAT GREAT FOR SEVERE TYPE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGS MORE OF THE SAME...EC DOES HINT THAT WE
COULD GET A LITTLE JET DYNAMICS TO HELP OUT FOR A CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONGER THUNDER.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST WITH GOOD DRYING
ALOFT SO WILL RELAX BACK BELOW CLIMO FOR POPS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...PREFER THE EC OVER THE GFS KEEPING
NORTHEAST MONTANA MOSTLY DRY...STILL CYCLONIC FLOW COULD HAVE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OUT THERE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDER
ACTIVITY LIMITED FOR THE REGION.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...PATTERN STARTS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR CHANCE OF CONVECTION AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONAL THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. PROTON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. A SMALL CHANCE EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER FOR SOME BRIEF THUNDER... OTHERWISE A GOOD FLYING DAY FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA EXPECTED. PROTON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1057 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2013
UPDATE TO AVIATION
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Generally quiet and benign conditions expected
overnight. The exception to this picture, as was the case last
night, is weak short wave energy moving along the Canadian border
and additional short wave energy over portions of southwest Montana.
An isolated thunderstorm is possible over these areas. HRRR analysis
suggests this activity should end by 07z. Temperatures look
reasonable but have tweaked lows for Great Falls and Lewistown.
Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 0457Z.
VFR conditions will continue across north central/central/southwest
Montana at least through Monday evening. Skies will remain mostly
clear across the area into early Monday afternoon. However, light
northerly upslope winds will keep an area of mid level cloudiness
(around 5000 feet AGL) north and west of a line from KGTF to KHVR
until 12Z or so. The airmass becomes weakly unstable again across
southwest Montana after 21Z Monday as a disturbance approaches the
area, for a chance of thunderstorms there, possibly impacting the
KBZN terminal. Coulston
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 256 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2013
Tonight through Tuesday...Generally quiet but breezy weather will
continue this evening. However, once again this evening, there
will be a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm at opposite
ends of the CWA: near the Canadian border and near Yellowstone
Park. On Monday, an upper level wave will move through the Great
Basin with flow aloft over the CWA backing around to the southwest
by evening. The airmass also becomes unstable over far southwest
Montana during the afternoon and evening with scattered
thunderstorms developing over the mountains. This convection
will move to the northeast into central Montana overnight and
expand in coverage. There is also some indication that a mesoscale
complex could form over central Montana during the overnight
hours. Showers and thunderstorms become likely across much of the
forecast area on Tuesday. From Tuesday evening through Wednesday
afternoon there is some risk that a few thunderstorms may become
strong to borderline severe with gusty winds being the main
threat. mpj
Tuesday night through Sunday...a rather unsettled weather pattern
will reside over the region from much of the second half of the work
week. A rather strong upper level disturbance is expected to develop
over Central MT early Tue evening. Some of the storms could be on
the strong side Tue evening. Thus pops have been raised for a good
portion of North Central MT. Another round of storms will affect the
region Wednesday into Thursday ahead the main cold front and upper
level trof. Expect the precipitation to become a bit more widespread
by Thursday over North Central MT. This heavier precip later in the
week will slow down the rivers receding in Hill and Blaine
counties. Colder air will move into the region by Thursday
night...thus snow levels will be lowering into the 6500 to 7500 feet
range. Expect some snow at higher elevations by Friday morning...but
any snow accumulations should be minor. For Saturday...expect drier
near seasonable temperatures to move back into the region. By next
Sunday...a southwesterly flow develop aloft resulting in a chance
for afternoon thunderstorms over Central and Southwest MT by late in
the day. Brusda
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Small streams and creeks remain high and out of their banks across a
large portion of Central and North Central Montana. Areal flood
warnings will continue for Hill/Blaine/Fergus Counties. Point flood
warnings remain in effect for three locations: Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
These points are expected to remain near or above flood stage into
at least the early part of this week. The potential exists Tuesday
for significant rain over areas currently under flood warnings.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 74 48 72 / 0 0 30 40
CTB 41 71 44 70 / 10 10 10 40
HLN 49 79 50 77 / 0 10 30 40
BZN 45 81 47 77 / 10 20 30 50
WEY 42 78 41 71 / 20 30 30 40
DLN 48 82 49 76 / 0 30 40 50
HVR 46 74 49 72 / 10 0 20 50
LWT 46 72 48 69 / 0 0 40 70
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning through Monday morning for Blaine, Fergus, and Hill
Counties.
Flood Warning until further notice for Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KGSP RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
LIFTING N TO NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. CATEGORICAL POP LOOKS GOOD
INITIALLY...BUT THERE IS A BACK END OF THE PRECIP LIFTING ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER AS OF 05Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TEMPORARY LULL...AND
POP WILL BE DECREASED THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS COULD
FILL IN AT ANY TIME.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN UP OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. ANTICIPATE IMPROVING AND SLIGHTLY BACKING FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO REGENERATE AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LOW END SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER
GIVEN THE IMPROVING WIND SHEAR AND EASILY REACHABLE LCL HEIGHTS.
GIVEN THE ROBUST 0 TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NOW ADVERTISED ON THE
LATEST RUC RUNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE FEATURED AN ISOLD TORNADO
MENTION IN THE HWO.
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE MTNS FROM THE
WEST AROUND MIDDAY. A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL START TO
DIMINISH POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP SHEAR CONTINUES
TO INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH...SO STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAY BE QUITE VIGOROUS...ESPECIALLY IN ERN SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...LINGERING DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY NIGHT SINCE THE 09/12 UTC OP SHORT RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE PASSAGE OF A SHARP LOOKING S/WV
TROUGH. WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN NOW IN STEP WITH THE OP GFS IN
TRANSLATING UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PLAN ON SHAVING BACK POP A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY
GIVING THE PALTRY MOS POPS...FALLING SFC DWPTS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLATED TO REBOUND TO VALUES VERY CLOSE
TO CLIMO.
THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER BROADLY DIFFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND IT IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
THAT OHIO VALLEY MCS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NW CWFA BY
WED AM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING
AT THIS POINT. UNLESS IT BECOMES OBVIOUS THAT AN IMPULSE/OUTFLOW
IS GOING TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACRS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY WILL PLAN ON
LIMITING DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES TO THE MTNS/LEE TROUGH LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF H5 HIGH WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LEAVING OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER N/NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI. MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE
CWA. HENCE...I HAVE CARRIED LOW END CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE MTNS. THEN
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT BEFORE
WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LIFTING N AND NE
ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 06Z...WHICH WILL REQUIRE SOME HANDLING OF
LOWER VISIBILITY IN TEMPO GROUPS. OTHERWISE...A TREND CONTINUES WITH
CLOUD CEILING DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AND THINK THAT WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR HOLES THAT WILL NOT BE HANDLED IN A TEMPO AT MOST
SITES. KAVL MIGHT BE THE LAST TO GO COMPLETELY IFR BUT IT SHOULD
HAPPEN BEFORE SUNRISE. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION AROUND DAYBREAK BUT THERE IS A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE TN
VALLEY THAT MAY ARRIVE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SO...AFTER SUNRISE THE
IFR CEILING LIFTS UP TO MVFR AT ALL SITES...BUT THEN A 4 HR TEMPO
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED FROM WEST TO EAST BASED ON THE TIMING
OF THE 4KM WRF...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. AFTER THAT LINE OF STORMS
MOVES THROUGH...BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KCLT...EXPECT ANOTHER LULL.
THERE COULD BE MORE CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING BUT THAT DETAIL
HAD TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
S TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN ERN SECTIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON TUE IN THE MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE WED AND AGAIN ON THU.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT LOW 59% HIGH 81% MED 76% HIGH 83%
KGSP MED 63% HIGH 91% HIGH 80% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 92% HIGH 82% HIGH 80% MED 75%
KHKY MED 76% HIGH 89% MED 73% HIGH 83%
KGMU HIGH 87% HIGH 93% HIGH 91% HIGH 95%
KAND HIGH 87% HIGH 83% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
348 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS ALLOWING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN/CENTRAL PARTS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS LATCHED ONTO EXPANSION OF
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WHICH HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...AND IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG PERSISTING IN THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY DUE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENCE...THOUGH MAY
STILL BE A BIT PATCHY IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST WHERE THE
WIND MAY PICK UP A BIT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. STRATUS AND A BIT
MORE WIND EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS HELPED TO HOLD VISIBILITY UP
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN THUS FAR...SO DID
NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL WATCH
FOR DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD THE STRATUS CLEAR. SEEING SOME ACCAS
STREAMING TOWARD FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL.
SOUTHERN EDGE HAS SHOWN TENDENCY TO DISSIPATE AS IT SHIFTS EAST...
AND 06Z NAM INDICATES THIS TREND AS WELL...KEEPING BULK OF HIGHER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. DID BRING
IN A LITTLE HIGHER SKY COVER TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY...BUT THINK MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THUS AFTER THE FOG
BURNS OFF...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS A
BIT MORE SLOWLY IN THE EAST WHERE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO THE MID TO
LATER MORNING HOURS. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO
THE 20S C BY 11/00Z...HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE MID-UPPER
80S SOUTHWEST LOOK GOOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE
ABOVE 600 MB SATURATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN THETAE ADVECTION.
WHILE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...APPEARS AS THOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN EFFECTIVELY CAPPED
LIMITING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ELEVATED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT CHANCES TO DWINDLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS
THE CWA. TOUGH CALL ON CONVECTION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL CAP PRESENT. MODELS HIND THAT CAP MAY TRY TO WEAKEN...AND
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD
LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
HAVE LEFT LINGERING POPS INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THERE IS REALLY A
LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS SUCH...JUST HAVE A GENERAL
20-40 CHANCE WHICH WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THE BETTER PORTION OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE LATE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COULD SEE ACCAS
SHOWERS.
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA
AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHAT
CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SET UP ARE THE VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATE FROM 700-400 MB AND SPEED SHEAR ALOFT INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. PIECES OF ENERGY
PERIODICALLY BREAK OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
PRECISE TIMING OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT HAVE STARTED TO TWEAK
DAYTIME POPS DOWN AND NOCTURNAL POPS UP TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS...AM STILL CONCERNED
ABOUT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AREA. RADIATIONAL FOG
IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST FOR ANY PARTICULAR SPOT LOCATION. THAT
SAID...IT IS DISTURBING THAT SOME CEILINGS HAVE GONE UNDER 1000
FEET EAST OF I 29...AND IN SOUTHWEST MN...VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY
RANGING ANYWHERE FROM A 1/2 MILE AT SLAYTON TO 10 MILES. THEREFORE
WITH THE MOIST GROUND AND VERY SMALL SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...
AREAS OF FOG IS A LIKELY SCENARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
FOR NOW...KEPT TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE THREE TAF SITES AROUND
THE SUNRISE HOURS. BUT IT MUST BE NOTED THAT CONDITIONS COULD GET
WORSE THAN THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. UNFORTUNATELY
THAT BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WOULD LIKELY COINCIDE WITH EARLY MORNING
FLIGHTS. SO THIS WILL NEED WATCHED VERY CLOSELY AND ALSO HEDGED
WITH A SCT003 DECK AT KFSD AND KSUX AS A HEADS UP. OTHERWISE
TOWARD MID MORNING...IT WILL BE VFR AS ANY FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW IN DEPTH...AT LEAST ALONG AND WEST OF I 29.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ038>040-
053>056-059>062-065>071.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-097-098.
IA...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1123 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL FROM EARLIER PROJECTIONS
AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS ESPECIALLY FIRST 12 HOURS. CLARKSVILLE STILL
IN THE RAIN AND WILL BE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. NASHVILLE YET TO
GET RAIN BUT WILL SHORTLY. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER FROM 06Z TO 08Z
THEN VICINITY SHOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS
AT CROSSVILLE BECOMING PREDOMINATE AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
14Z. COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MY CWA SO HAVE
INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUING TO HOLD TOGETHER BUT OVERALL WEAKENING
HAS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST HOUR. THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL
IN DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE IS 1020 PM CDT.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE SEGMENT MOVING INTO MONTGOMERY COUNTY REMAINS STRONG OTHERWISE
LINE OF CONVECTION OVERALL HAS WEAKENED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.
RAINFALL IN SOUTHWEST BENTON COUNTY TOTALED 1.75 INCHES. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR THE AREA. THE HEAVIER
RAINS HAVE NOW PULLED EAST.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT BETTER THE APPROACHING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW CROSSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ALTHOUGH A
STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STILL THINK ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE DOWN INTO LOUISIANA WITH
CONVECTION ALL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. CLOUDS TOPS HAVE BECOME
COLDER LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. BOUNDARY MAY WORK INTO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND WITH TRAINING OF ECHOES WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION NEARING TENNESSEE RIVER AT 0030Z HAS PULLED
AHEAD OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND ALONG WITH LOSS OF HEATING
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS BUT THERE
STILL COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST
TENNESSEE DOWN INTO LOUISIANA AND A WAVE THAT HAS JUST DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONT IN LOUISIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 EXTENDS ALL ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION TRAINING
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH WEST
TENNESSEE AND WAS 40 MILES WEST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AT 00Z. AM
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...EXPECT STORM STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SLUGGISH UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT LATE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE DOWN INTO
EASTERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH COLDER TEMPS
SWINGS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MESOSCALE...STORM CELL MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SUMNER MAY BE MORE
OF A RED HERRING BUT DOES HAVE A SUPERCELLULAR APPEARANCE (ITS GOT
THE LOOK). INBOUND WINDS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 35 KNOTS AT 2326Z.
STORM HAS TURNED RIGHT LAST 20 MINUTES TAPPING ENVIORNMENTAL WINDS
AND MORE HELICITY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 MBAR COLD TEMP AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
21Z. THIS AXIS OF COLDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN SWEEPING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS OF CURRENT WW SHORTLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY
IN THOSE AREAS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SREF RUN WEAKENS INSTABILITY
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
OUT BY H-TRIPLE-R HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. THINK BEST SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND BEGIN WEAKENING BY 03Z AS IT
APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 03Z AND 06Z.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
HE BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN
MIDDLE TN AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST.
LATEST LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STACKED NICELY AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM IOWA. THESE 2 FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PHASE AND WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE ISOL TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG LEVELS.
THEN...LATER TONIGHT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID STATE...A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN REACH STRONG LEVELS WITH
HIGH WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. TIMING OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 8PM TO 2AM ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND 11PM TO 5AM ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR DATA APPEARS TO WANT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES INTO EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
ON MONDAY...NAM MODEL WILL BE TOSSED AS GRAPHICS DEPICT NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS AT 18Z...AND THIS IN TURN HAS EVOKED OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NUMERICAL MET DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SFC WITH DEWS IN THE LOWER 60S. GFS AND MAV DATA SHOWS EVEN
LOWER DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CAPES REINFORCED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING PATTERN. COULD SEE ISOL TO SCT STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION...WIND AND HAIL.
MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR TO WORK IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS
EASTWARD. POPS WILL THEREFORE SHUTDOWN WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A DEFINITIVE WARMING TREND WILL BE AT HAND AS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER TX AND OUR HEIGHTS RISE.
IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS FOR SAT OR SUN. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF PLATEAU.
VERSUS THE MEX GUIDANCE...AGAIN...THE MEX APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT 97 AT BNA FOR WED. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
AND GO 94. A GENERAL UNDERCUT WILL BE UTILIZED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
WET GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER RURAL TAF SITES TONIGHT. ANY MVFR VSBY/CIGS WILL MIX
OUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GFS CONTS TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY DUE TO AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. FCST SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
CAP AND WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.70 INCHES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S...FEEL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES...OR KIAH SOUTHWARD. CONDS IMPROVE RAPIDLY BY
11/00Z WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENINGS SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.87
AND 1.56 INCHES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE THAN IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO...BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE COAST. WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA AND CONVERGENCE AT 200-300 MB. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTIER THAN IT WAS TODAY.
OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. 44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED ACROSS SE TX AND AM EXPECTING THE
CIRRUS SHIELD TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST AND TO THE WEST OF SE TX. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED ABOUT PATCHY FOG IN RURAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH GROUNDS
REMAINING WET AND LIGHT WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS ON MONDAY KINDA
CAUGHT ME BY SURPRISE. 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BREAKABLE CAP AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR IS
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES AND GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HI-RES
ARW. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SE TX AT 16Z
SO FEEL SOME PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP WITH FURTHER HEATING. ADDED VCSH
FOR MON AFTN AND WILL WAIT FOR 00Z RUNS BEFORE EITHER ADDING
THUNDER OR REMOVING PCPN ALL TOGETHER. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 94 74 95 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 93 75 94 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 87 80 88 80 / 30 20 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...44
AVIATION/MARINE...43
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEAKENING AS IT
MOVED ESE INTO CENTRAL IL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS
DEFORMATION ZONE WERE ATTEMPTING TO WRAP BACK INTO OUR FAR SE
COUNTIES...BUT WERE DISSIPATING. STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WAS IN
PLACE FROM THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH MINNESOTA...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
S/W TROF AND 110 KT JET STREAK MOVG ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS ENERGY APPEARED POISED TO CLIP NORTHERN WI LATER
TODAY. CLOUDS HAD SCATTERED OUT OVER MUCH OF GRB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING.
PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID-MORNING. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR SE COUNTIES EARLY TODAY...SO WILL NOT MENTION.
S/W TROF AND JET STREAK MOVG RAPIDLY THROUGH ND AND NW MN SHOULD
MOVE INTO N WI LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCT
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FA. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOST
NUMEROUS OVER NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY (CAPE
300-400 J/KG) IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
OF ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE FAR NORTH. CONSIDERED GOING WITH LIKELY
POPS OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT OPTED FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS INSTEAD...AS
THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH MUCH LESS QPF THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
MIXING THROUGH 875-850 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LEADING TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A MILD NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
50S.
ON TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE AND JET ENERGY WILL SKIM BY
TO OUR NORTH AS A WEAK/SHALLOW COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW POPS OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT POPS MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED OVER MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUBSEQUENT
FCSTS. MIXING THROUGH 850-800 MB SUPPORTS A WARM DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO FOCUS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION
FOR AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND LEFT THE NORTH DRY BECAUSE
OF THIS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY SO HAVE LEFT SOME CHANCE POPS
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
CONTINUING TO WANE. VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE TROUGH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
EARLY MONDAY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARD MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
PERSISTING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM NW ONTARIO THRU THE GREAT LKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE ARE 2 CLOSED LOWS UPSTREAM...ONE MOVING THRU THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO THE N OF MEAN RDG OVER
THE WRN CONUS. A SHRTWV IS MOVING INTO NE MN BTWN THE 2 CLOSED LOWS
AND GENERATING AN AREA RA OVER FAR NW LK SUP AND NE MN AS THE DPVA/
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH DEEP
MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. BUT SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LO IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ARE
TO THE S OF UPR MI...THERE IS NO DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN OVER UPR
MI...WITH AN ABSENCE OF SGNFT RADAR RETURNS OVER THE AREA DESPITE
MOCLDY SKIES. THE CLDS HAVE LIMITED THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP...WITH
MOST PLACES REPORTING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LO 60S EARLY THIS MRNG.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS ARE MOVING NE INTO UPR MI FM WI. THICKER
CLDS/SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE MOVING N THRU LWR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU NE MN.
TDAY...SHRTWV IN NE MN IS PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD INTO NW ONTARIO ON
THE SE FLANK OF NEARLY STNRY CLOSED LO OVER SASKATCHEWAN. DPVA/H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE PROGGED TO BRUSH THE
NW CWA INTO THIS AFTN BEFORE THE SHRTWV LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NE AND
GIVES WAY TO DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING. MODELS SHOW
BULK OF PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS SHRTWV PASSAGE REMAINING TO THE NW OF
EVEN THE KEWEENAW. SO OPTED TO CUT POPS TO NO HIER THAN SCHC THIS
MRNG OVER THE LAND CWA. DID ADD SCHC POPS OVER THE E TO ACCOUNT FOR
ISOLD -SHRA MOVING N THRU NRN LWR MI. EVEN AFT THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT
SWINGS TO THE N THIS AFTN...BULK OF RECENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
GENERATING QPF OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR W HALF OF THE CWA AS DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND LK BREEZE BNDRYS PROVIDE
SOME LLVL FOCUS. TENDED TO RAISE FCST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS MOVING NE FM WI AND ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC FORCING OVER MOST OF THE FA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE E...
WHERE MORE CLDS STREAMING NWD THRU LWR MI MIGHT HOLD DOWN THE
DIURNAL TEMP INCRS. EVEN THOUGH WARMING/DRYING ABV H6 WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS SETS IN AFT 18Z AND WL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CNVCTN...MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR THE INTERIOR
W FOR SFC T/TD OF 75/57 YIELDS SBCAPE NEAR 450 J/KG AND KINX OF 33.
GOING CHC POPS/SCHC OF TS LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD ORDER.
TNGT...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT...EXPECT DIURNAL SHRA
OVER MAINLY THE W HALF TO DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO RACE EWD ALONG THE
CNDN BORDER THRU TNGT IN THE FAST WLY FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
SASKATCHEWAN CLOSED LO AND APRCH THE NW CWA LATER WITH SOME
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...FAIRLY DRY MID LVLS/LLVL ACYC FLOW/
ABSENCE OF ANY DIURNAL HEATING WL LIMIT ACCOMPANYING POPS...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FOCUS OF THE ASSOCIATED FORCING IS FCST TO PASS
TO THE N. DID RETAIN SOME CHC POPS OVER THE NW CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS DISTURBANCE. OTRW...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR
WITH THE MID LVL DRYING/LGT WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SOME
RA MIGHT FALL THIS AFTN AND FURTHER MOISTEN THE LLVLS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN BY TUESDAY INDICATES STRING OF TROUGHS ACROSS
CANADA AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST CONUS AND NORTHEAST CONUS.
SHALLOW RIDGING IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THROUGH REST
OF THE WEEK TROUGHING OVER CANADA SPLITS WITH RIDGING ATTEMPTING TO
BUILD INTO CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EVENTUALLY THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES BY START OF NEXT WEEKEND. YET
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING BACK ACROSS UPPER LAKES TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAIN TO UPPER LAKES BUT
IT ALSO SHOULD NOT BE THAT COLD EITHER AS BULK OF COLDER AIR STAYS
LOCKED UP OVER WESTERN AND EASTERN CANADA CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING. TEMPS INLAND FROM LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN MOST
DAYS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME SINCE PREVAILING WINDS WILL
BE ONSHORE. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
MOST AREAS WELL INTO THE 70S. COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK FOR ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE ON THURSDAY WHEN TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY
IN THE 50S.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND POCKET OF H85-H7 MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING THEN OVR EASTERN CWA
DURING AFTN HOURS. THOUGH SHARPEST LIFT IN FORM OF H85-H7 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IMPACTS LK SUPERIOR AND ISLE ROYALE/KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH MIDDAY...RIBBON OF LIFT CROSSES REST OF CWA AS WELL. WEAK
FORCING AND SUBTLE MOISTENING POINTS TO LOW CHANCE POPS. BUT...KIND
OF SIMILAR TO TODAY...COULD SEE ISOLD DAYTIME SHRA AND EVEN TSRA AS
SFC CAPES POP UP TO 300-500J/KG OVR SCNTRL IN THE AFTN. H7-H5 WINDS
45-55KT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVR 30 KTS. DO NOT EXPECT THERE
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE STRONGER SHEAR
THOUGH SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS. DEEP DRYING IN H7 LAYER
QUICKLY ENDS ANY SHRA/TSRA BY LATE TUE AFTN. H7 DRYING AND NEUTRAL
HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES FROM ROCKIES TOWARD UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW/WARM FRONT SET UP FROM NEB INTO
NORTHERN IL WHILE H85 WARM FRONT IS NOT MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT.
EDGE OF H7 MOISTURE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN WI...BUT SINCE 1-6KM
MUCAPE IS BARELY INTO SOUTHERN MN AND CNTRL WI...HAVE HARD TIME
THINKING THAT THE INCREASE IN H7 MOSITURE WOULD RESULT IN NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF A SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK. NOT
WORTH PUTTING ANY POPS INTO SOUTHERN CWA. OTHER THING TO WATCH ON
WEDNESDAY IS SHORTWAVE TIED INTO NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHING INTO
ONTARIO. TREND IS FOR WAVE TO BE STRONGER...BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS
KEEP WAVE ON WNW-ESE TRACK OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR IN THE MORNING
AND OVER ONTARIO EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY AFTN. SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SHOULD SPUR ON SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA NORTH AND EAST OF LK SUPERIOR WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY
THE GEM-NH SHOWS THE WAVE DIGGING ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE ANY QPF OVR
UPR MICHIGAN THOUGH AND THAT IS ONLY OVR FAR EAST CWA. MAJORITY
RULES FOR NOW SO HAVE NOT PUT ANY POPS IN OVER THE EAST. MAX TEMPS
MAY SHOW VARIATION CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS LAKE COOLING IS ENHANCED
BY AFTN WITH DEVELOPING NORTH GRADIENT FLOW. MAY SEE TEMPS QUICKLY
RISE WEDNESDAY MORNING CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR THEN FALL OFF IN THE
AFTN. FARTHER INLAND...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S.
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE RESULTS IN H85-H7 WINDS VEERING MORE NORTH LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. H85 THERMAL TROUGH ALSO PRESENT. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHRA AS FORCING IS MINIMAL...BUT MAY SEE DECENT CLOUD
COVER IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN...H85 RH PROGS SHOWING LAKE
STABILIZING SIGNAL WITH MINIMUM RH SHOWING UP OVR LK SUPERIOR AFT
18Z. PROBABLY WILL SEE CLEARING DEVELOP CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER EAST DUE TO STABILIZING FLOW. EVEN WITH CLEARING WILL BE COOL
DAY ALONG LK SUPERIOR AS MOST LOCATIONS STAY IN THE 50S WITH STIFF
NORTHERLY WINDS. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO PERHAPS
LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND NOW EVEN THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AND GIVEN TREND OF HIGH STAYING AROUND LONGER...FRIDAY
NIGHT NOW LOOKING GENERALLY FREE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA EXCEPT FAR WEST
CWA.
WEEKEND FORECAST MUDDLED AS MID CONUS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVR CNTRL CANADA AND OVR
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TALKING DAY 6 AND 7 SO HARD TO
GET TOO HUNG UP ON THESE TYPE OF DETAILS YET. OVERALL THEME THOUGH
IS SLOWER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND/OR A GENERAL LACKING
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. CONSENSUS POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE USED BUT
DID PULL POPS OVER EASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY AS THAT AREA IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF STUBBORN SFC RIDGING. TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO READINGS THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
POSSIBLY WARMER IF THERE ARE LESS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
WITH SOME MORNING SUNSHINE/VFR CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME SHRA TO
DEVELOP WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW
BEFORE THE SHRA DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH WANING DAYLIGHT. A WEAK HI
PRES WILL MOVE IN THIS EVNG...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND JUST SOME
PATCHY HI CLDS...SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR SOME FOG TO FORM. IFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY OVERNGT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
AS LO PRES IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E TODAY...
EXPECT E-SE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH W-E WITH THE
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AND UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT. DID MAINTAIN
PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE SOME SHOWERS HAVE
FURTHER MOISTENED THE LOW LEVELS. THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THRU FRI...SO PLAN ON WINDS UNDER 15 KTS TUE THRU FRI.
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...UP TO 20 KTS IN
GUSTS...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR OVER THE STILL CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
LINGERING FOG PATCHES UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
937 AM MDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO CUT BACK POPS NOW THAT THE
PRECIPITATION FROM VERY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER OUR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES HAS MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA. A VERY CALM AND
COMFORTABLE SPRING DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA.
BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS PUSHING OUT BY 12Z
HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE KEPT SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THUS...TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTION INTO THE GRIDS IN THE EASTERN ZONES.
ANY SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE
OUT AND BECOME REPLACED BY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AS
NORTHEAST MONTANA BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL INDUCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FLARING UP. WILL
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH THE EARLY JUNE
SUNSHINE GOING TO WORK AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGING
BUILDING IN.
MONDAY NIGHT...A REGIME OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TRANSLATES INTO THE AREA. PVA OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL PROMOTE FORCED VERTICAL ASCENT. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENT HOWEVER ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS HAS A BAND IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...BUT HAS IT DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION AND GIVEN THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND ARGUMENTS ABOVE LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW
WILL NOTE THAT THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THIS LIKELY CORRESPONDS TO
A THERMAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME. SHOULD CONVECTION
PUSH INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THIS TROUGH AXIS
COULD SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
WEDNESDAY...AN ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AS IT PUSHES INTO A NICE THETA-E RIDGE THAT
SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ZONES. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS UPWARDS OF 1500
J/KG OF CAPE...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A NICE VEERING WIND PROFILE INDICATING PLENTY
OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER AN
INCH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
IS MUCH FURTHER WEST...WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH JUST YET TO
INSERT A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE GRIDS JUST YET...BUT A
WETTING RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE THAT MORE CLOSELY AND
SEE IF THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONTINUITY OR IF SOLUTIONS ARE LINING
UP BETTER. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES AS THERE IS UPWARDS OF 200-400 J/KG OF CIN PRESENT
IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS LENDS FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF
THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE WEST...AT LEAST INITIALLY. NOTE
THAT BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IS DEPICTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THUS...STORMS MAY INITIATE ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN
PUSH EASTWARD. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED WITH THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS IN KEEPS THE AREA IN A
VERY TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. WHICH LEADS TO
A HIGH LEVEL OF PREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN...HOWEVER IT ALL
WILL BE IN THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CLIMO POP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS AT
ITS HIGHEST WITH CHANCE LEVEL POPS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
WEST SHOULD SET UP FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT THAT GREAT FOR SEVERE TYPE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGS MORE OF THE SAME...EC DOES HINT THAT WE
COULD GET A LITTLE JET DYNAMICS TO HELP OUT FOR A CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONGER THUNDER.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST WITH GOOD DRYING
ALOFT SO WILL RELAX BACK BELOW CLIMO FOR POPS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...PREFER THE EC OVER THE GFS KEEPING
NORTHEAST MONTANA MOSTLY DRY...STILL CYCLONIC FLOW COULD HAVE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OUT THERE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDER
ACTIVITY LIMITED FOR THE REGION.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...PATTERN STARTS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR CHANCE OF CONVECTION AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONAL THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. PROTON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. A SMALL CHANCE EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER FOR SOME BRIEF THUNDER... OTHERWISE A GOOD FLYING DAY FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA EXPECTED. PROTON
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MILK RIVER
DRAINAGE BASIN STRETCHING FROM TAMPICO TO THE EAST SIDE OF
GLASGOW.
THE MILK RIVER CRESTING AT SACO. IT IS HOLDING STEADY OR EXPECTED
TO CREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT THE DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF
TAMPICO... GLASGOW AND NASHUA.
RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINS IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY DOWN BEAVER
CREEK IN PHILLIPS COUNTY SOUTH OF SACO. THE GAGE SITE NEAR GUSTON
COULEE SOUTHWEST OF SACO IS JUST BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE OF 11
FEET AND FALLING VERY SLOWLY. A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR BEAVER
CREEK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK WHICH COULD
CREATE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR
LATE THIS WEEK. EBERT
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...MATURING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL EFFICIENTLY TRANSPORT MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
NORTHWARD...WITH ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGING INTO
THE REGION. NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ALL RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH TONIGHT.
WPC QPF THROUGH TONIGHT SHOWING WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND ONE
INCH. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WOULD
SUPPORT AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS THIS HIGH WOULD
LIKELY ONLY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET SOME TRAINING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATLY LACKING IN
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...BUT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT. THERE ALSO MAY BE ENHANCEMENT ALONG A CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...BUT THE HRRR AND MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BUFFALO CREEK BASINS.
CONSIDERING THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS THERE MAY BE SOME NUISANCE
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT AT THIS
POINT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THREAT IN HWO PRODUCT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE MODESTLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW CROSSES NEW YORK STATE DURING TUESDAY. WILL SEE SOME
REGENERATION OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS WHEN IT INTERCEPTS ANOTHER JET
STREAK. WILL HAVE LINGERING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE LOWER SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...ON THE RIVER BUT OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...AND WANING CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP THE NEED FOR CHANCE POPS
DURING WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES AND VORTICITY MAXIMA ALOFT
STREAM BY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO
THE SOUTH WILL BRING SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER NEW YORK STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLEARING
TREND AND BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE
DEPARTING LOW DRAWS DOWN SOME MARGINALLY COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WILL REFLECT THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND
LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS CHANGE FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SURFACE LOW. AN INFLUX OF WARMER AIR ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPS UP A BIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER NY...WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...BUT OTHER THAN KNOCK OFF A FEW DEGREES
FROM DAYTIME HIGHS...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON THE
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR DAYS NOW OVER THE
STATE FOR SATURDAY FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE DRY DAY. SUNDAY IS NOT
QUITE LOCKED IN HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE STATE. THE LATEST GFS HOLDS THIS OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...WITHOUT ANY PRONOUNCED RIDGING
OR TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...EXPECT HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NY THROUGH THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE SE
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP VFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT
BUF/IAG/ROC DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WIND DIRECTION. BY MID-
AFTERNOON...STEADIER SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EMBEDDED.
THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL KEY A DROP IN
CIGS...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES. AHEAD
OF THE LOW...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SE FLOW WILL HOLD AT OUR TAF
LOCATIONS...WITH IAG THE ONLY CLOSE CALL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY..PRODUCING SOME CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS
ON WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AS WINDS FUNNEL DOWN THE LAKE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL/TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
752 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE HRRR PAINTS A
DIFFERENT VERSION OF THE SAME STORY: DAYTIME HEATING IS GOING TO
IGNITE A LARGE NUMBER OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. GIVEN LOW LEVEL
WINDS BLOWING ONSHORE...THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES WILL SEE A MINIMA IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ONCE THE SEABREEZE HAS BEGUN BLOWING BY LATE
MORNING. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...80-90 PERCENT...IS
STILL ANTICIPATED ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. I HAVE TWEAKED
FORECAST HIGHS UP A DEGREE IN SPOTS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS...
MID-JUNE IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE
MID-LATITUDE STORM TRACK PULLS NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
WE MOVE INTO A TROPICAL PATTERN GOVERNED BY MARITIME FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC...DAILY SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. NOT SO
TODAY AT LEAST: AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...DRIVING A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WE HAVE A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2.0 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST IDENTICAL IN SPEED AND DIRECTION TO
THE 850-300 MB STEERING FLOW...WHAT COULD ALMOST BE TERMED A
REGENERATIVE MCS WAS THE RESULT SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PENDER COUNTY
WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 4-7 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN BURGAW AND MOORES
CREEK BATTLEFIELD. ALTHOUGH A BROADLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN EXISTS
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECOND JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT...THE
925 MB LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD NOT KEEP UP WITH INCREASES IN THE WIND
SPEEDS ALOFT. THIS DISPARITY SHOULD FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATING CELLS
AND FASTER OVERALL STORM MOTION ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 MPH TODAY.
FORECAST RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT RANGES FROM 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR TO 0.6 INCHES ON THE NC COAST...WITH POPS 80 PERCENT
OR HIGHER ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. ALTHOUGH A FLOOD WATCH
WAS CONTEMPLATED...TODAY`S FASTER CELL MOTION SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE (3+ INCH) RAINFALL TOTALS AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...CONFIRMED BY LOW NUMBERS IN THE SREF 24 HOUR 1" AND 2"
RAINFALL PROBABILITIES.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS FRONT CLEANLY MOVING
OFFSHORE...THEREFORE I CANNOT SHOW A PRONOUNCED CLEARING OR DRYING
TREND IN THE FORECAST EVEN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD
TRANSITION EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
APPROACHING THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT WHERE I HAVE 60 POPS FORECAST AT
MYRTLE BEACH AND WILMINGTON. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ALOFT BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE STEERING FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL DIMINISH.
IN BETWEEN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S
IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 69-73...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS FLOW
ALOFT SHIFTS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF ACTUAL ARRIVAL
OF SURFACE FRONT BY WED MORNING. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS
THAN 1.5 INCHES AS LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE COAST. WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ON THE BACK END EXPECT ANY LINGERING PCP TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAIN ON MONDAY WILL
PRODUCE CU AND MAY SEE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TO
PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT OVERALL ALL SHWRS
SHOULD END EARLY IN THE DAY. BEST CHC OF PCP LATER IN THE DAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW SHOULD KEEP
BEST CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT ALLOWING SEA BREEZE TO
MOVE TOO FAR INLAND.
THE ACTUAL SURFACE FEATURE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT REACHES THE
COAST BY WED MORNING. THE SFC WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST
ONLY BRIEFLY BEFORE BACKING TO THE SW AS PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. WITH STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
EXPECT ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
COAST. RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF BUT A SHORTWAVE ON THE
NORTHEAST EDGE OF RIDGE RIDES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WED
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP TO ENHANCE CU DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED SHWR. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF FORECAST WITH
SO MUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID IN
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BOTH TUES AND WED PRODUCING TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL...INTO THE 90S MOST PLACES. THE 850 TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE
PERIOD FROM AROUND 20C ON WED TO 21C ON THURS. OVERALL EXPECT A
VERY WARM MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR MAKES IT INTO
AREA ALOFT...SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...STILL
HOLDING UP CLOSER TO 70. THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN UP
CLOSER TO 70 ALSO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS. THIS
WHOLE SYSTEM MOVES EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FLOW IS SOUTHERLY ON THURS THE
WINDS ALOFT MAINTAIN MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
AND THEREFORE EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURS TO
COME LATER IN THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW END POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY THURS AFTN AND INCREASING CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS THURS NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY FRI MORNING BUT SOME
LINGERING SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. DEEP NW FLOW OF
DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND COLD FRONT
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN.
SOME MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
TOP OF STRONG RIDGE BUILDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
MAY INDUCE SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES ON THURS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLACES AS
850 TEMPS HOLD UP AROUND 21C. ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
FRI...TEMPS WILL BE KNOCKED BACK DOWN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...IN THE MID 80S MOST PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL AS WELL WITH READINGS IN THE MID
60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT IFR/TEMPO MVFR CIGS INLAND TERMINALS TO RISE
TO MVFR BY 13-14Z AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MVFR/TEMPO VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AS THE SEA BREEZE/RESULTANT BOUNDARY DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MOSTLY VFR WITH LOW CHANCES OF MVFR
LATE THIS MORNING PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PER RADAR THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE A TEMPO LIGHT SHOWER COULD
OCCUR AT KILM THROUGH 13-14Z. BY 15Z AS THE SEA BREEZE/RESULTANT
BOUNDARY INITIALLY STAYS PINNED NEAR THE COAST THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWER OCCURRENCE AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE KFLO/KLBT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
ACTIVITY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING ISOLATED IN THE EVENING AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHIFTS
TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS. MVFR/TEMPO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. AT KFLO/KLBT IFR/LIFR IN
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...WINDS APPEAR TO BE STRONGER AT THE BEACHES
THAN THEY ARE OFFSHORE AT FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SMALL INITIAL
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THIS...OTHERWISE THE TREND OF SLOWLY
INCREASING WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE
AND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL CREATE STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
CURRENTLY AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS
THE NC WATERS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
MAINLY INLAND BY LATE MORNING...BUT WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP CLOSE TO 5 TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT
NEAR SHORE. WILL KEEP WITH SCA FOR NORTHERN 2 MARINE ZONES ONLY
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED. THIS WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT
THROUGH WED.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED INTO THURS AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FIRST DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND
THEN DUE TO APPROACH OF COLD FRONT BY THURS. EXPECT SW WINDS BACK
UP TO A SOLID 15 KTS OR SO BY THURS MORNING WITH SEAS UP AROUND 4
TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. MAY EVEN SEA
WINDS UP CLOSE TO 25 KTS JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER
WATERS THURS NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY...THE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND ABRUPTLY TO THE NW-N
BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WILL DIMINISH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS
WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE BUT LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DOWN FROM THE NORTH MOVING CLOSER OVERHEAD
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE HRRR PAINTS A
DIFFERENT VERSION OF THE SAME STORY: DAYTIME HEATING IS GOING TO
IGNITE A LARGE NUMBER OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. GIVEN LOW LEVEL
WINDS BLOWING ONSHORE...THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES WILL SEE A MINIMA IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ONCE THE SEABREEZE HAS BEGUN BLOWING BY LATE
MORNING. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...80-90 PERCENT...IS
STILL ANTICIPATED ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. I HAVE TWEAKED
FORECAST HIGHS UP A DEGREE IN SPOTS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS...
MID-JUNE IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE
MID-LATITUDE STORM TRACK PULLS NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
WE MOVE INTO A TROPICAL PATTERN GOVERNED BY MARITIME FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC...DAILY SEABREEZES AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. NOT SO
TODAY AT LEAST: AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...DRIVING A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WE HAVE A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2.0 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST IDENTICAL IN SPEED AND DIRECTION TO
THE 850-300 MB STEERING FLOW...WHAT COULD ALMOST BE TERMED A
REGENERATIVE MCS WAS THE RESULT SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PENDER COUNTY
WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 4-7 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN BURGAW AND MOORES
CREEK BATTLEFIELD. ALTHOUGH A BROADLY DIFLUENT UPPER PATTERN EXISTS
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECOND JET STREAK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT...THE
925 MB LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD NOT KEEP UP WITH INCREASES IN THE WIND
SPEEDS ALOFT. THIS DISPARITY SHOULD FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATING CELLS
AND FASTER OVERALL STORM MOTION ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 MPH TODAY.
FORECAST RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT RANGES FROM 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR TO 0.6 INCHES ON THE NC COAST...WITH POPS 80 PERCENT
OR HIGHER ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. ALTHOUGH A FLOOD WATCH
WAS CONTEMPLATED...TODAY`S FASTER CELL MOTION SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE (3+ INCH) RAINFALL TOTALS AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...CONFIRMED BY LOW NUMBERS IN THE SREF 24 HOUR 1" AND 2"
RAINFALL PROBABILITIES.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS FRONT CLEANLY MOVING
OFFSHORE...THEREFORE I CANNOT SHOW A PRONOUNCED CLEARING OR DRYING
TREND IN THE FORECAST EVEN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD
TRANSITION EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
APPROACHING THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT WHERE I HAVE 60 POPS FORECAST AT
MYRTLE BEACH AND WILMINGTON. SOME DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ALOFT BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE STEERING FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL DIMINISH.
IN BETWEEN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S
IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 69-73...WARMEST AT THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS FLOW
ALOFT SHIFTS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF ACTUAL ARRIVAL
OF SURFACE FRONT BY WED MORNING. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS
THAN 1.5 INCHES AS LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE COAST. WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ON THE BACK END EXPECT ANY LINGERING PCP TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAIN ON MONDAY WILL
PRODUCE CU AND MAY SEE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TO
PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT OVERALL ALL SHWRS
SHOULD END EARLY IN THE DAY. BEST CHC OF PCP LATER IN THE DAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW SHOULD KEEP
BEST CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOT ALLOWING SEA BREEZE TO
MOVE TOO FAR INLAND.
THE ACTUAL SURFACE FEATURE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT REACHES THE
COAST BY WED MORNING. THE SFC WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST
ONLY BRIEFLY BEFORE BACKING TO THE SW AS PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. WITH STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
EXPECT ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
COAST. RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF BUT A SHORTWAVE ON THE
NORTHEAST EDGE OF RIDGE RIDES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WED
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP TO ENHANCE CU DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED SHWR. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF FORECAST WITH
SO MUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID IN
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BOTH TUES AND WED PRODUCING TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL...INTO THE 90S MOST PLACES. THE 850 TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE
PERIOD FROM AROUND 20C ON WED TO 21C ON THURS. OVERALL EXPECT A
VERY WARM MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR MAKES IT INTO
AREA ALOFT...SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...STILL
HOLDING UP CLOSER TO 70. THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN UP
CLOSER TO 70 ALSO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS. THIS
WHOLE SYSTEM MOVES EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FLOW IS SOUTHERLY ON THURS THE
WINDS ALOFT MAINTAIN MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
AND THEREFORE EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURS TO
COME LATER IN THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW END POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY THURS AFTN AND INCREASING CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS THURS NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY FRI MORNING BUT SOME
LINGERING SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. DEEP NW FLOW OF
DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND COLD FRONT
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN.
SOME MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
TOP OF STRONG RIDGE BUILDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
MAY INDUCE SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES ON THURS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S MOST PLACES AS
850 TEMPS HOLD UP AROUND 21C. ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
FRI...TEMPS WILL BE KNOCKED BACK DOWN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...IN THE MID 80S MOST PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL AS WELL WITH READINGS IN THE MID
60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS INLAND AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SATURATED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPO
-SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING OFFSHORE. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECT MVFR/VFR TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY WITH TEMPO IFR IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 20 KTS DURING THE AFTN HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED VCSH AT ALL TERMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE TROUGH/FRONT NEARS THE CWA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...WINDS APPEAR TO BE STRONGER AT THE BEACHES
THAN THEY ARE OFFSHORE AT FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SMALL INITIAL
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THIS...OTHERWISE THE TREND OF SLOWLY
INCREASING WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE
AND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL CREATE STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
CURRENTLY AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS
THE NC WATERS NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
MAINLY INLAND BY LATE MORNING...BUT WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP CLOSE TO 5 TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT
NEAR SHORE. WILL KEEP WITH SCA FOR NORTHERN 2 MARINE ZONES ONLY
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED. THIS WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT
THROUGH WED.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED INTO THURS AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FIRST DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND
THEN DUE TO APPROACH OF COLD FRONT BY THURS. EXPECT SW WINDS BACK
UP TO A SOLID 15 KTS OR SO BY THURS MORNING WITH SEAS UP AROUND 4
TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. MAY EVEN SEA
WINDS UP CLOSE TO 25 KTS JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THURS NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER
WATERS THURS NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY...THE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND ABRUPTLY TO THE NW-N
BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WILL DIMINISH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS
WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE BUT LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DOWN FROM THE NORTH MOVING CLOSER OVERHEAD
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE IS NOSING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND HAS
SPARKED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AS THE JET STREAK
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR OBS AND HRRR TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK COMBINED
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN RELATIVELY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POPPING UP...HOWEVER MUCAPE AT AROUND 100 J/KG IS LIMITING
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. A FEW MORE HUNDRED JOULES AND WOULD THINK
SEVERE CRITERIA WOULD EASILY BE MET FOR SOME STORMS GIVEN THE
FORCING IN PLACE.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SPOT ON...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCES AND
AREAL EXTENT OF EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND THE DEVELOPING FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CURRENTLY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER EASTERN WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WEST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTH. EAST OF THE TROUGH WINDS WERE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A LARGE AREA OF FOG EXTENDED ACROSS
MUCH OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA...AND HAS SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY AND
HAS SPREAD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OAKES REPORTED 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY...AND JAMESTOWN WAS VARYING BETWEEN 3/4 AND 3 MILES.
EXPECT THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO JAMESTOWN...AND
WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR FOSTER/STUTSMAN/LAMOURE/LOGAN
COUNTIES - ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - UNTIL 10 AM CDT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS - ONE OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER OVER EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE LOW WAS STACKED OVER THE SURFACE LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
SEVERAL VORT ENERGY IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE UPPER FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW`S
INFLUENCE...WAS WEST-TO-EAST AND ENERGY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY AND REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED SUNDAY EVENING CONTINUED THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW. HOWEVER THIS MORNING AN INSTABILITY AXIS (OF HIGHER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE) EXTENDED FROM THE WY/SD BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
CONFIDENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG
THE TROUGH. THE EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION AND HELP MOVE THE SHOWERS EASTWARD.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE CANADIAN LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...AND KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES DAYTIME MONDAY WILL APPROACH THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LARGER DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS FOR THE CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
SEE SOME PERIODS OF GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COVERAGE...TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST IS STILL FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE DAKOTAS...NOW ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD THIS FEATURE ARRIVING 6-12 HOURS FASTER. A
FEW CHANGES TO DISCUSS FOR TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE LAST TWO
RUNS OF THE ECMWF PAINT A BAND OF QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH LIGHTER QPF OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. WHILE THE GFS IS
DRY...THE NAM ALSO IS INDICATING PRECIPITATION. DISCOUNTED THE GFS
FOR THIS PARTICULAR PERIOD AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OVERRUNNING FLOW AND FORCING ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO WARRANT MENTIONING PRECIPITATION. MUCH
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION AND HOW FAR WEST AS WELL. THE GFS HAS A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE ECMWF IS A TAD MORE
NORTH. THE SFC HIGH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THE FAR SOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
SD/ND BORDER COUNTIES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE WEST COAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER MAINLY SOUTH WED
MORNING..WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR EARLIER AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER MY WEST. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING NOT UNTIL THURSDAY DAYTIME. THE GFS STILL MAINTAINS FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST WED NIGHT. SCALED BACK POPS CENTRAL
WED NIGHT BUT KEPT A MENTION OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WEST.
WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE WYOMING/MONTANA ROCKIES BY 12Z
FRIDAY...THEN EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA 6-12Z FRIDAY MORNING...AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA 00-06Z FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS HIGH
CHANCES AND EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT DEVELOPING EAST FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING
CHANCES/COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBILITY THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
FORCING AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS.
THE ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THE WEEKEND DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A WASH-OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
AT 6 AM CDT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN WYOMING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE STATE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER AT
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TODAY. THE THREAT OF THUNDER OR RAIN SHOWERS IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT KISN. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. TONIGHT MVFR AT KDIK AND KJMS MAINLY AFT 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
700 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS ALLOWING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN/CENTRAL PARTS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS LATCHED ONTO EXPANSION OF
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WHICH HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...AND IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG PERSISTING IN THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY DUE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENCE...THOUGH MAY
STILL BE A BIT PATCHY IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST WHERE THE
WIND MAY PICK UP A BIT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. STRATUS AND A BIT
MORE WIND EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS HELPED TO HOLD VISIBILITY UP
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN THUS FAR...SO DID
NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL WATCH
FOR DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD THE STRATUS CLEAR. SEEING SOME ACCAS
STREAMING TOWARD FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL.
SOUTHERN EDGE HAS SHOWN TENDENCY TO DISSIPATE AS IT SHIFTS EAST...
AND 06Z NAM INDICATES THIS TREND AS WELL...KEEPING BULK OF HIGHER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. DID BRING
IN A LITTLE HIGHER SKY COVER TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY...BUT THINK MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THUS AFTER THE FOG
BURNS OFF...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS A
BIT MORE SLOWLY IN THE EAST WHERE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO THE MID TO
LATER MORNING HOURS. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO
THE 20S C BY 11/00Z...HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE MID-UPPER
80S SOUTHWEST LOOK GOOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE
ABOVE 600 MB SATURATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN THETAE ADVECTION.
WHILE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...APPEARS AS THOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN EFFECTIVELY CAPPED
LIMITING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT CHANCES TO DWINDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWA. TOUGH CALL
ON CONVECTION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
PRESENT. MODELS HIND THAT CAP MAY TRY TO WEAKEN...AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD LIKELY
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.
HAVE LEFT LINGERING POPS INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THERE IS REALLY A
LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS SUCH...JUST HAVE A GENERAL
20-40 CHANCE WHICH WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THE BETTER PORTION OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE LATE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COULD SEE ACCAS
SHOWERS.
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA
AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHAT
CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SET UP ARE THE VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATE FROM 700-400 MB AND SPEED SHEAR ALOFT INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. PIECES OF ENERGY
PERIODICALLY BREAK OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
PRECISE TIMING OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT HAVE STARTED TO TWEAK
DAYTIME POPS DOWN AND NOCTURNAL POPS UP TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
LIFR CONDITIONS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...EITHER WITH SUB 1SM VISIBILITY IN FG OR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW
400FT AGL IN STRATUS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z...THOUGH
CEILINGS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 CORRIDOR MAY BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE THAN
VISIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 17Z-
18Z. REMOTE CHANCE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHRA/TSRA WEST OF I-29 LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CHANCE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN KHON TAF.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ038>040-
053>056-059>062-065>071.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-097-098.
IA...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1058 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE TODAY MAY BE CONVECTION AGAIN BUT A LOT MORE ISOLATED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT YESTERDAY`S
TROUGH AXIS HAS LEFT BEHIND A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER S TX/LOWER TX
COAST. MAY JUST KEEP ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH
MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOPING. THE
12/13Z HRRR RUNS HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING 17-18Z AND ENDING BY
22Z. FORECAST HAS 20/30 POPS AND THINK THIS MAY BE ON TRACK.
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH TO NEED 30 POPS BUT LOOKS REASONABLE.
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT ISSUE AN UPDATE.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
CURRENTLY HAVE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT RURAL SITES DUE TO
MORNING FOG. URBAN SITES HAVE BEEN SPARED MOST OF THE FOGGY
CONDITIONS. FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING PRODUCING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WEAKNESS REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MORE LIMITED TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALREADY
COME DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY. VALUES OF AROUND 1.50" THOUGH STILL
SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN. SOUNDINGS REVEAL MODEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY VALUES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES
WHICH APPEAR TO BE VERY ACHIEVABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE MOISTURE
IS MORE LIMITED TOWARDS THE NORTH MIGHT HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
RAIN BUT AT KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS STILL SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. PER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BEFORE SUNRISE...
DEVELOPMENT IN/NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LOT LESS INLAND COVERAGE THAN THE AREA
SAW YESTERDAY. AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES...STILL EXPECT TO SEE A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA (SPOTS AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA MIGHT END
UP BEING THE BEING THE LAST TO DRY OUT). STILL CARRYING MID TO UPPER
90S FOR HIGHS FOR MUCH OF INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. 42
MARINE...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT GAVE US RAINFALL YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST TODAY WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE EAST. WATERS COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS POCKETS OF VORTICITY MOVE AROUND THE
DISTURBANCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WITH MOSTLY LOW SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 74 95 74 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 74 94 75 94 / 30 10 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 79 88 80 88 / 30 10 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
636 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEAKENING AS IT
MOVED ESE INTO CENTRAL IL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS
DEFORMATION ZONE WERE ATTEMPTING TO WRAP BACK INTO OUR FAR SE
COUNTIES...BUT WERE DISSIPATING. STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WAS IN
PLACE FROM THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH MINNESOTA...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
S/W TROF AND 110 KT JET STREAK MOVG ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS ENERGY APPEARED POISED TO CLIP NORTHERN WI LATER
TODAY. CLOUDS HAD SCATTERED OUT OVER MUCH OF GRB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING.
PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID-MORNING. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR SE COUNTIES EARLY TODAY...SO WILL NOT MENTION.
S/W TROF AND JET STREAK MOVG RAPIDLY THROUGH ND AND NW MN SHOULD
MOVE INTO N WI LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCT
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FA. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOST
NUMEROUS OVER NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY (CAPE
300-400 J/KG) IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
OF ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE FAR NORTH. CONSIDERED GOING WITH LIKELY
POPS OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT OPTED FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS INSTEAD...AS
THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH MUCH LESS QPF THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
MIXING THROUGH 875-850 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LEADING TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A MILD NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
50S.
ON TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE AND JET ENERGY WILL SKIM BY
TO OUR NORTH AS A WEAK/SHALLOW COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW POPS OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT POPS MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED OVER MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUBSEQUENT
FCSTS. MIXING THROUGH 850-800 MB SUPPORTS A WARM DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO FOCUS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION
FOR AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND LEFT THE NORTH DRY BECAUSE
OF THIS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY SO HAVE LEFT SOME CHANCE POPS
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG IN NC/C WI WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z-14Z...FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVG. SCT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE ISOLD
TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH
VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
405 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT AND OCCLUDED
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE TRIPLE POINT WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO
WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS THIS EVENING RISE TO BETWEEN 1.75
AND 2 INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL EVEN THOUGH SHOWALTER INDICES ONLY BRIEFLY NEAR
ZERO AND SBCAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL
OF SURFACE HEATING AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SBCAPES TUESDAY AFTERNOON BTWN 400 AND 800
J/KG. BETTER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AS SECONDARY TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS NRN NEW
YORK PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND PCPN GENERALLY AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A THIRD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE FA WITH THE RAIN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
LATE AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT A BREEZY DAY WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN AREAS AS A STRONG VORT AXIS
CROSSES FA SWINGING ARND THE BASE OF THE H5 TROF. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH
READINGS ARND 80 NEAR KPOU.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE RAINFALL SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST GETS TO OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL FORECAST CHANCE POPS
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT A BIT UNSETTLED...BUT THINGS IMPROVE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN/CANADIAN GGEM/HPC
GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE A CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THU-THU NIGHT. THE SFC CYCLONE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH.
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING N/NE OF THE SFC CYCLONE WILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THU
PM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUT-OFF IN THE OVER RUNNING
RAINFALL. THE NRN ZONES MAY STAY DRY. FOR NOW...SLIGHT CHC POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THU NIGHT NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND NW CT. CHC POPS ARE KEPT FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THE STEADY SHOWERS GOING THU
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO NOT PLACE HIGHER POPS
AT THIS TIME. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M40S TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER TH HILLS.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 250-500 J/KG WITH
TOTAL TOTALS OF AROUND 50. THE 850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES APPROACH 6.5
C/KM. SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH SFC DEWPTS
IN THE M40S TO M50S. H850 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND +10C...SO MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE IN 70-75F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND NW CT...AND
MID AND U60S OVER THE MTNS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SRN ONTARIO
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO +6C TO +9C. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE M40S TO M50S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A LARGE DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH
WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE CAROLINAS WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR.
THE REGION WILL ENJOY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON
SAT...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TOO...BUT BASED ON THE TIMING OF
THE DISTURBANCE THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ADDED TO GRIDDED FCST YET.
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH PCPN SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE STRETCH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STEADY RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT SO FAR...WHICH HAS KEPT FLYING CONDITIONS
GENERALLY VFR. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
MVFR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE RAIN PICKING UP IN INTENSITY AND
ALLOWING VSBYS TO DROP...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
KPSF/KPOU. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 00Z UNTIL KALB/KGFL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS.
A MODERATE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE LATE
EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW
FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. LATE TONIGHT...THE STEADY RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE VSBYS...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
KEEP SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AROUND. BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY...MOST OF THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BREAK
UP...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND.
SFC WINDS ARE NEARLY CALM OR LIGHT OUT OF THE E-SE EARLY THIS AFTN.
EVENTUALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND
5-10 KTS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A W-SW DIRECTION ON TUESDAY AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA AT KPOU.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT RAINFALL EVENT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A OCCLUDED FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE QUITE HEAVY WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS AS THOUGH IT
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES WITH A SECONDARY AXIS OF HEAVY PCPN ACRS THE ERN
CATSKILLS. THE HOUSATONIC BASIN WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE CONNECTICUT SECTION OF THE
RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
DURING MID WEEK...MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING...MAINLY FOR BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES WHERE A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAINFALL
ALREADY REACHING THE MOHAWK VALLEY....SARATOGA REGION AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST VERMONT WITH STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. WE HAVE
SPED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE TRENDS.
IN ADDITION...WITH THE QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN...TEMPS WON/T HAVE
A CHANCE TO RISE AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE 60S LATE THIS MORNING...AS RAINFALL WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM RISING...AND THEY MAY EVEN FALL A DEGREE OR TWO AS
TEMPS WET BULB.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AS A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET SEGMENT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING. 850MB SOUTHERLY
WIND ANOMALIES OF +3 TO +4 STDEV AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF
+2 TO +3 STDEV ARE FORECAST FROM THE GEFS. SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
BASED CAPE WILL BE MINIMAL WITH OUR AREA POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. VARIOUS SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE WARM FRONT AND A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG IT SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL NOT SIGNIFY THE END OF OUR RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT STILL HAVE THE PASS THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS.
SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DO START TO OCCUR MAINLY WITH THE
POSITION/TRACK OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL TRACK RIGHT OVER
OUR AREA OR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...SINCE IF A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OCCURS THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY PUT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA UNDER A
THREAT FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE.
THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY SPECULATIVE AT THIS TIME...SINCE MUCH OF THE
AREA COULD REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS AND THUS NOT ALLOWING FOR
HEATING. WITH THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO STEEPEN ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT
MENTION OF CHANCE THUNDER. AGAIN...THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION IS QUITE MUDDLED AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH ONE OR MORE
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...AS MIXING BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE. THE INCREASED MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHAOTIC UPPER FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ONE UPPER
IMPULSE TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
SHOULD TRACK SOUTH OF OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
ON FRIDAY...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
RESULT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRIDAY SYSTEM
EXITS...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR.
HIGHS THURSDAY WITH PERIODS CLOUDS AND SUN...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME
AREAS...SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...AND AS USUAL COOLER IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGHS FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SUN BEFORE THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SOME HINTS A ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SMALL UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING
FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THE TIMING AND EXTEND OF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE DETERMINED AS THE EVENT GETS
CLOSER. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STEADY RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT SO FAR...WHICH HAS KEPT FLYING CONDITIONS
GENERALLY VFR. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
MVFR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE RAIN PICKING UP IN INTENSITY AND
ALLOWING VSBYS TO DROP...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
KPSF/KPOU. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 00Z UNTIL KALB/KGFL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS.
A MODERATE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE LATE
EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW
FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. LATE TONIGHT...THE STEADY RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE VSBYS...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
KEEP SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AROUND. BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY...MOST OF THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BREAK
UP...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND.
SFC WINDS ARE NEARLY CALM OR LIGHT OUT OF THE E-SE EARLY THIS AFTN.
EVENTUALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND
5-10 KTS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A W-SW DIRECTION ON TUESDAY AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/TSRA AT KPOU.
FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS IN STORE TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MORE HEAVY RAIN IN STORE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
SLOWLY CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HOUSATONIC BASIN WILL ESPECIALLY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR FLOODING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF ALREADY
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREFORE A FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA FOR NOW
SINCE EXPECTED QPF IS LOWER OUTSIDE OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND RIVER
LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL STREAM
AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL
FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
424 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES EDGING OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. TO THE N...A WELL DEFINED
MID-LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG WRLY FLOW WAS NOTED BTWN
THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH A 110KT UPPER
JET ANALYZED BY THE RUC. THIS JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT SHIFTS THRU THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED THRU NRN ONTARIO
TODAY. TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA DEVELOPING OVER
WRN UPPER MI TODAY. SO FAR...NO THUNDER EVEN THOUGH LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE/MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 1000/500J/KG OVER THE
INTERIOR WRN UPPER MI.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA AND MAYBE YET ISOLD TSRA OVER WRN UPPER MI
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AFTER SHRA
DISSIPATE...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A TIME
TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP UNDER MID LEVEL DRYING AND
LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY WHERE SOME RAIN HAS FALLEN
THIS AFTN. LATER TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA. GIVEN
THAT SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY WITH FEATURE...IT APPEARS
CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT.
INTERESTING FCST FOR TUE WITH REGARD TO TSTM POTENTIAL. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON TIMING OF JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
FROM A LARGER SCALE STANDPOINT...THE WNW FLOW PATTERN IS ONE WHICH
OFTEN SUPPORTS SVR STORMS OVER UPPER MI. WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR TUE IS ON THE ORDER OF
60-70KT. FORTUNATELY...WITH MLCAPE UP AROUND 500J/KG FROM THE NAM
AND ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FROM THE GFS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND FORCING WILL
BE PASSING THRU EARLIER IN THE DAY AND MOSTLY LIKELY NOT IN CONCERT
WITH PEAK HEATING. THE NAM REPRESENTS THE SLOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM
ON THE PROGRESSION TUE WHILE THE GFS IS ON THE FASTER SIDE. THE GEM
OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH TIMING AND WILL BE FAVORED. PLAN WILL
BE TO CARRY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WNW TO ESE TUE.
BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVER THE SCNTRL/SE WHERE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE MI WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FORCING. PRONOUNCED
MIDLEVEL DRYING SURGING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING AN END TO
SHRA/TSRA FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE W. IF FOR SOME REASON PROGRESSION IS
SLOWER TUE AND INSTABILITY BUILDS HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...
THERE MAY BE A FEW SVR STORMS TO DEAL WITH OVER THE SCNTRL/SE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR E AND SE CORNERS OF THE
CWA.
THE CURRENT LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL OPEN UP AND SWING AROUND
THE SET RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S...AND
MOVE TO SD/NE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL LINE UP WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE SWINGING AROUND THE LARGE LOW OVER NE CANADA ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN
WITH ALL OF THAT...UPPER MI MAY END UP DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DID ADD A JUST A FEW SHOWERS FOR FAR E UPPER MI /FIRE
ZONES/ THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB
TEMPS OFF THE ECMWF STAY AROUND 8C FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO COOL BACK INTO THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EVEN IN THE UPPER 50S F RIGHT ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
WITH THE 500MB TROUGHS SHIFTING TO OUR E AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM TX THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...EXPECT NW FLOW TO RETURN
ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS UP IN THE AIR...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST...LINGERING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO
NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE...WITH MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
ONGOING FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EARLIER 10/00Z
RUN OF THE ECMWF AND 10/12Z RUN OF THE GFS BOTH PAINTED A GOOD
AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA...WHICH WHEN BLENDED RESULTED IN HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. SINCE THEN OF COURSE THE 01/12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN MAINLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THESE SHRA WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE AREAS
AROUND KIWD/KSAW BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH WANING DAYLIGHT.
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER A SHRA WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT EITHER
TERMINAL...ONLY VCSH WILL BE UTILIZED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME
PATCHY HIGHER CLOUDS...SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR SOME FOG TO FORM WITH
IFR CONDITIONS APPEARING LIKELY. DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
FROM THE W MAY BRING VCNTY SHRA TO KCMX LATE TONIGHT AND TO
KIWD/KSAW TUE MORNING. INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CAUSE RADIATION FOG
TO DISSIPATE AT KCMX LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE AT KIWD/KSAW FOR FOG TO DISSIPATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 15KT OR LESS THRU
THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20KT MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED NIGHT/THU IN ADVANCE OF HIGH
PRES BUILDING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED
TODAY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME FOG
PATCHES OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. IF SO...FOG PATCHES WILL
SHIFT TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. THE PATCHY
FOG MAY THEN LINGER THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
140 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM NW ONTARIO THRU THE GREAT LKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE ARE 2 CLOSED LOWS UPSTREAM...ONE MOVING THRU THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO THE N OF MEAN RDG OVER
THE WRN CONUS. A SHRTWV IS MOVING INTO NE MN BTWN THE 2 CLOSED LOWS
AND GENERATING AN AREA RA OVER FAR NW LK SUP AND NE MN AS THE DPVA/
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH DEEP
MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. BUT SINCE THE DEEPER MSTR AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LO IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ARE
TO THE S OF UPR MI...THERE IS NO DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN OVER UPR
MI...WITH AN ABSENCE OF SGNFT RADAR RETURNS OVER THE AREA DESPITE
MOCLDY SKIES. THE CLDS HAVE LIMITED THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP...WITH
MOST PLACES REPORTING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LO 60S EARLY THIS MRNG.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS ARE MOVING NE INTO UPR MI FM WI. THICKER
CLDS/SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE MOVING N THRU LWR MI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU NE MN.
TDAY...SHRTWV IN NE MN IS PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD INTO NW ONTARIO ON
THE SE FLANK OF NEARLY STNRY CLOSED LO OVER SASKATCHEWAN. DPVA/H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE PROGGED TO BRUSH THE
NW CWA INTO THIS AFTN BEFORE THE SHRTWV LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NE AND
GIVES WAY TO DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING. MODELS SHOW
BULK OF PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS SHRTWV PASSAGE REMAINING TO THE NW OF
EVEN THE KEWEENAW. SO OPTED TO CUT POPS TO NO HIER THAN SCHC THIS
MRNG OVER THE LAND CWA. DID ADD SCHC POPS OVER THE E TO ACCOUNT FOR
ISOLD -SHRA MOVING N THRU NRN LWR MI. EVEN AFT THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT
SWINGS TO THE N THIS AFTN...BULK OF RECENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
GENERATING QPF OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR W HALF OF THE CWA AS DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND LK BREEZE BNDRYS PROVIDE
SOME LLVL FOCUS. TENDED TO RAISE FCST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS MOVING NE FM WI AND ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC FORCING OVER MOST OF THE FA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE E...
WHERE MORE CLDS STREAMING NWD THRU LWR MI MIGHT HOLD DOWN THE
DIURNAL TEMP INCRS. EVEN THOUGH WARMING/DRYING ABV H6 WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS SETS IN AFT 18Z AND WL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CNVCTN...MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR THE INTERIOR
W FOR SFC T/TD OF 75/57 YIELDS SBCAPE NEAR 450 J/KG AND KINX OF 33.
GOING CHC POPS/SCHC OF TS LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD ORDER.
TNGT...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT...EXPECT DIURNAL SHRA
OVER MAINLY THE W HALF TO DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO RACE EWD ALONG THE
CNDN BORDER THRU TNGT IN THE FAST WLY FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
SASKATCHEWAN CLOSED LO AND APRCH THE NW CWA LATER WITH SOME
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...FAIRLY DRY MID LVLS/LLVL ACYC FLOW/
ABSENCE OF ANY DIURNAL HEATING WL LIMIT ACCOMPANYING POPS...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FOCUS OF THE ASSOCIATED FORCING IS FCST TO PASS
TO THE N. DID RETAIN SOME CHC POPS OVER THE NW CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS DISTURBANCE. OTRW...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR
WITH THE MID LVL DRYING/LGT WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SOME
RA MIGHT FALL THIS AFTN AND FURTHER MOISTEN THE LLVLS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN BY TUESDAY INDICATES STRING OF TROUGHS ACROSS
CANADA AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST CONUS AND NORTHEAST CONUS.
SHALLOW RIDGING IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THROUGH REST
OF THE WEEK TROUGHING OVER CANADA SPLITS WITH RIDGING ATTEMPTING TO
BUILD INTO CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EVENTUALLY THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES BY START OF NEXT WEEKEND. YET
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING BACK ACROSS UPPER LAKES TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAIN TO UPPER LAKES BUT
IT ALSO SHOULD NOT BE THAT COLD EITHER AS BULK OF COLDER AIR STAYS
LOCKED UP OVER WESTERN AND EASTERN CANADA CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING. TEMPS INLAND FROM LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN MOST
DAYS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME SINCE PREVAILING WINDS WILL
BE ONSHORE. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
MOST AREAS WELL INTO THE 70S. COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK FOR ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE ON THURSDAY WHEN TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY
IN THE 50S.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND POCKET OF H85-H7 MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING THEN OVR EASTERN CWA
DURING AFTN HOURS. THOUGH SHARPEST LIFT IN FORM OF H85-H7 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IMPACTS LK SUPERIOR AND ISLE ROYALE/KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH MIDDAY...RIBBON OF LIFT CROSSES REST OF CWA AS WELL. WEAK
FORCING AND SUBTLE MOISTENING POINTS TO LOW CHANCE POPS. BUT...KIND
OF SIMILAR TO TODAY...COULD SEE ISOLD DAYTIME SHRA AND EVEN TSRA AS
SFC CAPES POP UP TO 300-500J/KG OVR SCNTRL IN THE AFTN. H7-H5 WINDS
45-55KT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVR 30 KTS. DO NOT EXPECT THERE
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE STRONGER SHEAR
THOUGH SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS. DEEP DRYING IN H7 LAYER
QUICKLY ENDS ANY SHRA/TSRA BY LATE TUE AFTN. H7 DRYING AND NEUTRAL
HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES FROM ROCKIES TOWARD UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW/WARM FRONT SET UP FROM NEB INTO
NORTHERN IL WHILE H85 WARM FRONT IS NOT MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT.
EDGE OF H7 MOISTURE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN WI...BUT SINCE 1-6KM
MUCAPE IS BARELY INTO SOUTHERN MN AND CNTRL WI...HAVE HARD TIME
THINKING THAT THE INCREASE IN H7 MOSITURE WOULD RESULT IN NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF A SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK. NOT
WORTH PUTTING ANY POPS INTO SOUTHERN CWA. OTHER THING TO WATCH ON
WEDNESDAY IS SHORTWAVE TIED INTO NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHING INTO
ONTARIO. TREND IS FOR WAVE TO BE STRONGER...BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS
KEEP WAVE ON WNW-ESE TRACK OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR IN THE MORNING
AND OVER ONTARIO EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY AFTN. SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SHOULD SPUR ON SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA NORTH AND EAST OF LK SUPERIOR WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY
THE GEM-NH SHOWS THE WAVE DIGGING ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE ANY QPF OVR
UPR MICHIGAN THOUGH AND THAT IS ONLY OVR FAR EAST CWA. MAJORITY
RULES FOR NOW SO HAVE NOT PUT ANY POPS IN OVER THE EAST. MAX TEMPS
MAY SHOW VARIATION CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS LAKE COOLING IS ENHANCED
BY AFTN WITH DEVELOPING NORTH GRADIENT FLOW. MAY SEE TEMPS QUICKLY
RISE WEDNESDAY MORNING CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR THEN FALL OFF IN THE
AFTN. FARTHER INLAND...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S.
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE RESULTS IN H85-H7 WINDS VEERING MORE NORTH LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. H85 THERMAL TROUGH ALSO PRESENT. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHRA AS FORCING IS MINIMAL...BUT MAY SEE DECENT CLOUD
COVER IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN...H85 RH PROGS SHOWING LAKE
STABILIZING SIGNAL WITH MINIMUM RH SHOWING UP OVR LK SUPERIOR AFT
18Z. PROBABLY WILL SEE CLEARING DEVELOP CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER EAST DUE TO STABILIZING FLOW. EVEN WITH CLEARING WILL BE COOL
DAY ALONG LK SUPERIOR AS MOST LOCATIONS STAY IN THE 50S WITH STIFF
NORTHERLY WINDS. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO PERHAPS
LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND NOW EVEN THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AND GIVEN TREND OF HIGH STAYING AROUND LONGER...FRIDAY
NIGHT NOW LOOKING GENERALLY FREE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA EXCEPT FAR WEST
CWA.
WEEKEND FORECAST MUDDLED AS MID CONUS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CUTTING THROUGH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVR CNTRL CANADA AND OVR
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TALKING DAY 6 AND 7 SO HARD TO
GET TOO HUNG UP ON THESE TYPE OF DETAILS YET. OVERALL THEME THOUGH
IS SLOWER ARRIVAL OF SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND/OR A GENERAL LACKING
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. CONSENSUS POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE USED BUT
DID PULL POPS OVER EASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY AS THAT AREA IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF STUBBORN SFC RIDGING. TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO READINGS THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND
POSSIBLY WARMER IF THERE ARE LESS CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THESE SHRA WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE AREAS
AROUND KIWD/KSAW BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH WANING DAYLIGHT.
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER A SHRA WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT EITHER
TERMINAL...ONLY VCSH WILL BE UTILIZED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME
PATCHY HIGHER CLOUDS...SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR SOME FOG TO FORM WITH
IFR CONDITIONS APPEARING LIKELY. DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
FROM THE W MAY BRING VCNTY SHRA TO KCMX LATE TONIGHT AND TO
KIWD/KSAW TUE MORNING. INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD CAUSE RADIATION FOG
TO DISSIPATE AT KCMX LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE AT KIWD/KSAW FOR FOG TO DISSIPATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
AS LO PRES IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E TODAY...
EXPECT E-SE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH W-E WITH THE
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AND UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT. DID MAINTAIN
PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE SOME SHOWERS HAVE
FURTHER MOISTENED THE LOW LEVELS. THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THRU FRI...SO PLAN ON WINDS UNDER 15 KTS TUE THRU FRI.
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...UP TO 20 KTS IN
GUSTS...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR OVER THE STILL CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
LINGERING FOG PATCHES UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
649 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND
LOWER ACROSS NEW YORK TOWARD THE LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. INCREASED POPS IN THE WEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING IN
FROM CENTRAL PA. CURRENT ANALYSIS IS INDICATING THAT MID LVL
FRONTOGENSIS IS TAKING PLACE OVER CENTRAL NY...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. WE`LL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE CATSKILLS
AND NE PA THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE REGION OF THE HIGHEST PWAT
VALUES. OTHER THEN THAN...PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS GOOD.
230 PM UPDATE...
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN IN THE QUARTER TO LESS THAN HALF
INCH RAIN. MAYBE A FEW BREAKS HERE IN THE SHOWERS AND THEN HI RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD BATCH OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH IN THE 00Z TO 03Z
TIME FRAME. HRRR IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW. ARW HAS BEEN
DOING WELL WITH ITS FCSTS. THIS EVENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ANY THUNDER. PRIMARY FOCUS AREA REMAINS
OVER NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED BUT OVER 2 INCHES IS NEEDED IN 3 HOURS WHICH WOULD
NEED A CLUSTER OF GOOD CONVECTION TO TRIGGER THIS AND THAT DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY. TOWARD MORNING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
OCCASSIONAL OR EVEN DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NY TUESDAY HELPING TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HAVE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND A FAVORABLE
JET REGION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE AT DRY WEATHER. WARM FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY
WITH A JET ENTRANCE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER N
EACH RUN WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. MAIN FOCUS AND TRACK OF THE
CENTER REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SETTING
UP A BAND OF GOOD RAIN ACROSS PA NRN TIER AND SOME IN THE NY SRN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...MED RNG FCST FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD. CHCS FOR -SHRA ASSCD WITH LOW PRES DEPARTING THE MID
ALTC RGN ON THU NGT (MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA)...THEN THE PSBLTY OF
SCT- SHRA ON FRI WITH PASSING S/WV`S IN NW FLOW. AFTER THAT...SFC
HI PRES IS XPCT TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH
MAXES GNRLY IN THE L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE LOWER GTLAKES TWDS THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY LATER TNGT...WE XPCT WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THIS AFTN INTO THE OVRNGT
HRS DUE TO RAIN/DZ/CIGS AND VSBY`S...WITH SOME TERMINALS (SPCLY
ITH/BGM/ELM) SEEING CONDITIONS BLO ALT MINS AT TIMES. MAIN BATCH
OF RAIN IS XPCTD TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVNG...WITH
MORE SHRA LIKELY TMRW MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN WITH PSSG OF THE UPR
TROF AXIS. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MSTR AND XPCT IFR/MVFR TO LINGER INTO
TMRW MRNG AT MOST SITES.
WINDS THIS AFTN GNRLY FROM THE SE AT 10-15 KTS WITH G15-20 HIER
ELEVATIONS...BECMG SRLY LATER TNGT 5-10 KTS THEN WSW ON TUE 10-15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...IFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WED THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/KAH
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
436 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW WILL EXIT INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...STEADY SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS AREA
APPEARS TO BE LINED UP WITH AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS...WITH A GENERAL NORTHWARD PROGRESSION LIKELY GIVEN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND NAM/RGEM/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. NOTED THE HRRR HAS NOT
CAPTURED THIS AREA WELL...AND THUS CANNOT BE USED TO FORECAST THIS
FEATURE.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS AREA ROUGHLY LINES UP WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME SKILL IN CAPTURING
THIS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LOW...EXPECT THIS TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER EARLY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH NAM/SREF/RGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH
ALSO SHOWS SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE THE LOW WILL ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. ALL THIS
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE MANY MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MORE IS ON THE WAY.
THUS FAR UPSTREAM LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIMITED...AND IT NOW
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING
AS THE LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN QPFS
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE .50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF NIAGARA FRONTIER. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE TIME BETWEEN WAVES IT WOULD LIKELY TAKE
SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING CONVECTION TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING. THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
LOW CROSSES THE LAKES THIS EVENING.
ON TUESDAY...THE OPENING 500 MB TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH IT FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY...LIMITING
HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...AND PERHAPS 70 ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
QUEBEC AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TRACK FROM NORTHEAST NY TUESDAY EVENING TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM
UPSLOPE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS
FARTHER WEST WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LATER WEDNESDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO END...ALTHOUGH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. FARTHER WEST...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO OHIO AND PA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN
SAFELY TO OUR SOUTHWEST...LEAVING MUCH OF THE CWA IN A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TAKES A SERIES
OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM CAN BE TRACED TO A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL CREST OVER
THE TOP OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND FORCE CONVECTION ALONG
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE NAM REMAINS OUT OF
SYNC WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN TAKING THIS SYSTEM MUCH
FARTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THE LAST STRONGEST
SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH
THROUGH OHIO AND PA TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF IT TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND CLOSER TO MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PASSING THROUGH PA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL RACE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH ANY SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER ENDING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD AS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...WHICH
WILL DRAG A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS OF
INTEREST. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS PATTERN THAN THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE WEEKEND A LITTLE COOLER. THE TROUGH WILL
BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION IN A GENERALLY DRY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF REMAINS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE LESS
AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION AND KEEP FRIDAY MAINLY DRY WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
OVER THE WEEKEND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP BOTH DAYS DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
IF THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS VERIFIES TEMPS MAY CREEP A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS LAKE
ERIE/ONTARIO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT MIXED CONDITIONS IN
AND OUT OF SHOWERS...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
TAF LOCATIONS. STEADIER RAINS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF AND WITH THE LOW
THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE WIND SHIFT
AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN
LOW CIGS...AND LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING UNLIKELY.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE
UPPER TROF SLOWLY EXITING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST...WITH
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS ON WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO HOWEVER THESE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS LOW WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AS WINDS FUNNEL
DOWN THE LAKE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
341 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW WILL EXIT INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RIDGES
IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...STEADY SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS AREA
APPEARS TO BE LINED UP WITH AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS...WITH A GENERAL NORTHWARD PROGRESSION LIKELY GIVEN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND NAM/RGEM/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. NOTED THE HRRR HAS NOT
CAPTURED THIS AREA WELL...AND THUS CANNOT BE USED TO FORECAST THIS
FEATURE.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS AREA ROUGHLY LINES UP WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SOME SKILL IN CAPTURING
THIS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LOW...EXPECT THIS TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER EARLY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH NAM/SREF/RGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH
ALSO SHOWS SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE THE LOW WILL ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. ALL THIS
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE MANY MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MORE IS ON THE WAY.
THUS FAR UPSTREAM LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIMITED...AND IT NOW
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING
AS THE LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN QPFS
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE .50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF NIAGARA FRONTIER. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE TIME BETWEEN WAVES IT WOULD LIKELY TAKE
SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING CONVECTION TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING. THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
LOW CROSSES THE LAKES THIS EVENING.
ON TUESDAY...THE OPENING 500 MB TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH IT FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY...LIMITING
HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...AND PERHAPS 70 ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
QUEBEC AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TRACK FROM NORTHEAST NY TUESDAY EVENING TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM
UPSLOPE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS
FARTHER WEST WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LATER WEDNESDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO END...ALTHOUGH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. FARTHER WEST...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO OHIO AND PA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN
SAFELY TO OUR SOUTHWEST...LEAVING MUCH OF THE CWA IN A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TAKES A SERIES
OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM CAN BE TRACED TO A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL CREST OVER
THE TOP OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND FORCE CONVECTION ALONG
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE NAM REMAINS OUT OF
SYNC WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN TAKING THIS SYSTEM MUCH
FARTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED.
FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THE LAST STRONGEST
SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH
THROUGH OHIO AND PA TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF IT TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND CLOSER TO MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PASSING THROUGH PA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL RACE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH ANY SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER ENDING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD AS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...WHICH
WILL DRAG A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS OF
INTEREST. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS PATTERN THAN THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE WEEKEND A LITTLE COOLER. THE TROUGH WILL
BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION IN A GENERALLY DRY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF REMAINS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE LESS
AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION AND KEEP FRIDAY MAINLY DRY WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
OVER THE WEEKEND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP BOTH DAYS DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
IF THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS VERIFIES TEMPS MAY CREEP A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS LAKE
ERIE/ONTARIO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT MIXED CONDITIONS IN
AND OUT OF SHOWERS...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
TAF LOCATIONS. STEADIER RAINS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF AND WITH THE LOW
THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE WIND SHIFT
AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN
LOW CIGS...AND LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING UNLIKELY.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE
UPPER TROF SLOWLY EXITING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST...WITH
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS ON WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO HOWEVER THESE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS LOW WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AS WINDS FUNNEL
DOWN THE LAKE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
237 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING OCCASSIONAL SHOWERS. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND
LOWER ACROSS NEW YORK TOWARD THE LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN IN THE QUARTER TO LESS THAN HALF
INCH RAIN. MAYBE A FEW BREAKS HERE IN THE SHOWERS AND THEN HI RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD BATCH OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH IN THE 00Z TO 03Z
TIME FRAME. HRRR IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ARW. ARW HAS BEEN
DOING WELL WITH ITS FCSTS. THIS EVENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ANY THUNDER. PRIMARY FOCUS AREA REMAINS
OVER NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED BUT OVER 2 INCHES IS NEEDED IN 3 HOURS WHICH WOULD
NEED A CLUSTER OF GOOD CONVECTION TO TRIGGER THIS AND THAT DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY. TOWARD MORNING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
OCCASSIONAL OR EVEN DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NY TUESDAY HELPING TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HAVE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND A FAVORABLE
JET REGION. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. BEST CHANCE AT DRY WEATHER. WARM FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY
WITH A JET ENTRANCE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER N
EACH RUN WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. MAIN FOCUS AND TRACK OF THE
CENTER REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SETTING
UP A BAND OF GOOD RAIN ACROSS PA NRN TIER AND SOME IN THE NY SRN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...MED RNG FCST FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD. CHCS FOR -SHRA ASSCD WITH LOW PRES DEPARTING THE MID
ALTC RGN ON THU NGT (MAINLY SRN NY AND NE PA)...THEN THE PSBLTY OF
SCT- SHRA ON FRI WITH PASSING S/WV`S IN NW FLOW. AFTER THAT...SFC
HI PRES IS XPCT TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH
MAXES GNRLY IN THE L/M70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE LOWER GTLAKES TWDS THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY LATER TNGT...WE XPCT WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THIS AFTN INTO THE OVRNGT
HRS DUE TO RAIN/DZ/CIGS AND VSBY`S...WITH SOME TERMINALS (SPCLY
ITH/BGM/ELM) SEEING CONDITIONS BLO ALT MINS AT TIMES. MAIN BATCH
OF RAIN IS XPCTD TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVNG...WITH
MORE SHRA LIKELY TMRW MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN WITH PSSG OF THE UPR
TROF AXIS. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MSTR AND XPCT IFR/MVFR TO LINGER INTO
TMRW MRNG AT MOST SITES.
WINDS THIS AFTN GNRLY FROM THE SE AT 10-15 KTS WITH G15-20 HIER
ELEVATIONS...BECMG SRLY LATER TNGT 5-10 KTS THEN WSW ON TUE 10-15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...IFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WED THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
221 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY AT 200 PM EXTENDING BETWEEN
I-90 AND THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER STEADY
W-E BAND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE AREAS BOTH APPEAR TO BE
ALIGNED WITH TWO WAVES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE THIS...WITH MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE MERGING THESE TWO WAVES...UNABLE TO RESOLVE THE BREAKS.
MEANWHILE...THE HRRR HAS UNDERDONE THE RAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
DESPITE THE MIXED MODEL PERFORMANCE...TRENDS CONSISTENTLY LIFT
BOTH AREAS OF STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THIS...IS MORE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. GIVEN SUPPORT FROM THE
NAM/SREF/RGEM...SUSPECT THE HRRR FORECAST OF EXPANDING THIS AND
MOVING IT INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL BE
CORRECT...BRINGING A RETURN TO STEADIER RAINS.
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES FROM LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING TO LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.
SUSPECT THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...AS
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND
WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WIND FIELD.
THUS FAR UPSTREAM LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIMITED...AND IT NOW
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING
AS THE LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MEAN QPFS
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE .50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF NIAGARA FRONTIER. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE TIME BETWEEN WAVES IT WOULD LIKELY TAKE
SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING CONVECTION TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING. THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THEN FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ONLY MODEST DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE
LAKES THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW CROSSES NEW YORK STATE DURING TUESDAY. WILL SEE SOME
REGENERATION OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS WHEN IT INTERCEPTS ANOTHER JET
STREAK. WILL HAVE LINGERING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE LOWER SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...ON THE RIVER BUT OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...AND WANING CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP THE NEED FOR CHANCE POPS
DURING WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES AND VORTICITY MAXIMA ALOFT
STREAM BY IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO
THE SOUTH WILL BRING SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER NEW YORK STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CLEARING
TREND AND BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE
DEPARTING LOW DRAWS DOWN SOME MARGINALLY COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WILL REFLECT THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND
LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS CHANGE FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SURFACE LOW. AN INFLUX OF WARMER AIR ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPS UP A BIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER NY...WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...BUT OTHER THAN KNOCK OFF A FEW DEGREES
FROM DAYTIME HIGHS...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON THE
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR DAYS NOW OVER THE
STATE FOR SATURDAY FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE DRY DAY. SUNDAY IS NOT
QUITE LOCKED IN HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE STATE. THE LATEST GFS HOLDS THIS OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...WITHOUT ANY PRONOUNCED RIDGING
OR TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...EXPECT HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS LAKE
ERIE/ONTARIO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT MIXED CONDITIONS IN
AND OUT OF SHOWERS...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
TAF LOCATIONS. STEADIER RAINS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE LOW...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AS THE LOW
PASSES THROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN LOW
CIGS...AND LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING UNLIKELY.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE
UPPER TROF SLOWLY EXITING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY..PRODUCING SOME CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS
ON WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AS WINDS FUNNEL DOWN THE LAKE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
OTHER THAN MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER
GRIDS...THERE WERE NO MAJOR UPDATES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE IS NOSING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND HAS
SPARKED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AS THE JET STREAK
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR OBS AND HRRR TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK COMBINED
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN RELATIVELY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POPPING UP...HOWEVER MUCAPE AT AROUND 100 J/KG IS LIMITING
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. A FEW MORE HUNDRED JOULES AND WOULD THINK
SEVERE CRITERIA WOULD EASILY BE MET FOR SOME STORMS GIVEN THE
FORCING IN PLACE.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SPOT ON...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCES AND
AREAL EXTENT OF EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND THE DEVELOPING FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CURRENTLY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER EASTERN WYOMING WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WEST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTH. EAST OF THE TROUGH WINDS WERE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A LARGE AREA OF FOG EXTENDED ACROSS
MUCH OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA...AND HAS SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY AND
HAS SPREAD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OAKES REPORTED 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY...AND JAMESTOWN WAS VARYING BETWEEN 3/4 AND 3 MILES.
EXPECT THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO JAMESTOWN...AND
WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR FOSTER/STUTSMAN/LAMOURE/LOGAN
COUNTIES - ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY - UNTIL 10 AM CDT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS - ONE OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER OVER EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE LOW WAS STACKED OVER THE SURFACE LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
SEVERAL VORT ENERGY IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE UPPER FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW`S
INFLUENCE...WAS WEST-TO-EAST AND ENERGY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY AND REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED SUNDAY EVENING CONTINUED THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW. HOWEVER THIS MORNING AN INSTABILITY AXIS (OF HIGHER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE) EXTENDED FROM THE WY/SD BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
CONFIDENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG
THE TROUGH. THE EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION AND HELP MOVE THE SHOWERS EASTWARD.
TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE CANADIAN LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...AND KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER IMPULSES NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES DAYTIME MONDAY WILL APPROACH THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MODELS OVERALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LARGER DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS FOR THE CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
SEE SOME PERIODS OF GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COVERAGE...TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST IS STILL FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE DAKOTAS...NOW ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD THIS FEATURE ARRIVING 6-12 HOURS FASTER. A
FEW CHANGES TO DISCUSS FOR TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE LAST TWO
RUNS OF THE ECMWF PAINT A BAND OF QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH LIGHTER QPF OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. WHILE THE GFS IS
DRY...THE NAM ALSO IS INDICATING PRECIPITATION. DISCOUNTED THE GFS
FOR THIS PARTICULAR PERIOD AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OVERRUNNING FLOW AND FORCING ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO WARRANT MENTIONING PRECIPITATION. MUCH
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION AND HOW FAR WEST AS WELL. THE GFS HAS A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE ECMWF IS A TAD MORE
NORTH. THE SFC HIGH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THE FAR SOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
SD/ND BORDER COUNTIES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE WEST COAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER MAINLY SOUTH WED
MORNING..WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR EARLIER AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER MY WEST. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING NOT UNTIL THURSDAY DAYTIME. THE GFS STILL MAINTAINS FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST WED NIGHT. SCALED BACK POPS CENTRAL
WED NIGHT BUT KEPT A MENTION OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WEST.
WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE WYOMING/MONTANA ROCKIES BY 12Z
FRIDAY...THEN EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA 6-12Z FRIDAY MORNING...AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA 00-06Z FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS HIGH
CHANCES AND EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT DEVELOPING EAST FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING
CHANCES/COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBILITY THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
FORCING AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS.
THE ALL-BLEND MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THE WEEKEND DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A WASH-OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER KJMS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z TUESDAY.
FURTHERMORE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (KDIK) AFTER 11Z TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS ALLOWING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN/CENTRAL PARTS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS LATCHED ONTO EXPANSION OF
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WHICH HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...AND IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG PERSISTING IN THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY DUE TO EXPECTED PERSISTENCE...THOUGH MAY
STILL BE A BIT PATCHY IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST WHERE THE
WIND MAY PICK UP A BIT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. STRATUS AND A BIT
MORE WIND EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS HELPED TO HOLD VISIBILITY UP
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN THUS FAR...SO DID
NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL WATCH
FOR DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD THE STRATUS CLEAR. SEEING SOME ACCAS
STREAMING TOWARD FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL.
SOUTHERN EDGE HAS SHOWN TENDENCY TO DISSIPATE AS IT SHIFTS EAST...
AND 06Z NAM INDICATES THIS TREND AS WELL...KEEPING BULK OF HIGHER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. DID BRING
IN A LITTLE HIGHER SKY COVER TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY...BUT THINK MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THUS AFTER THE FOG
BURNS OFF...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS A
BIT MORE SLOWLY IN THE EAST WHERE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO THE MID TO
LATER MORNING HOURS. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO
THE 20S C BY 11/00Z...HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE MID-UPPER
80S SOUTHWEST LOOK GOOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE
ABOVE 600 MB SATURATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN THETAE ADVECTION.
WHILE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...APPEARS AS THOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN EFFECTIVELY CAPPED
LIMITING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT CHANCES TO DWINDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE CWA. TOUGH CALL
ON CONVECTION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
PRESENT. MODELS HIND THAT CAP MAY TRY TO WEAKEN...AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD LIKELY
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.
HAVE LEFT LINGERING POPS INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THERE IS REALLY A
LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS SUCH...JUST HAVE A GENERAL
20-40 CHANCE WHICH WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THE BETTER PORTION OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE LATE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COULD SEE ACCAS
SHOWERS.
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA
AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHAT
CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE ABOUT THIS SET UP ARE THE VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATE FROM 700-400 MB AND SPEED SHEAR ALOFT INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. PIECES OF ENERGY
PERIODICALLY BREAK OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
PRECISE TIMING OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT HAVE STARTED TO TWEAK
DAYTIME POPS DOWN AND NOCTURNAL POPS UP TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
VFR EVERYWHERE BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE TOWARDS US TONIGHT. THUS COULD SEE SOME
HIGH BASED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED COVERAGE ARE BOTH TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE
COULD SEE SOME FOG TONIGHT....BUT THINK THE INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THAT FROM
HAPPENING...SO WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AS WELL.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
549 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION TO TERMINATE AT
CSV BY 03Z. FOLLOWING THIS...SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE CSV BY 12Z WITH
VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM...1-3SM POSSIBLE FOR CKV AND BNA. PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE FOR YOUR TUESDAY WITH JUST A FEW CLDS AT THE 4KFT LEVEL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
RADAR INDICATING THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
SPRINGFIELD TN SW THROUGH DICKSON COUNTY. LAPS DATA STILL SHOWING
ELEVATED HELICITY VALUES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THUS...WILL DELAY CANCELLING ADDITIONAL WATCH AREAS UNTIL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF CURRENT WATCH COUNTIES. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...SOME MINOR ROTATION WAS STILL INDICATED OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR STILL REFRAINS FROM ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUT WILL STILL WAIT FOR THE FROPA AND WILL THEN COMMENCE WITH
CANCELLATIONS.
OTHERWISE...INTENSE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLATEAU
CONTINUES. THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER...APPRECIABLE SHEAR STILL EXISTS
OVER THE CURRENT WATCH AREA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
440 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
RADAR INDICATING THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
SPRINGFIELD TN SW THROUGH DICKSON COUNTY. LAPS DATA STILL SHOWING
ELEVATED HELICITY VALUES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THUS...WILL DELAY CANCELLING ADDITIONAL WATCH AREAS UNTIL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF CURRENT WATCH COUNTIES. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...SOME MINOR ROTATION WAS STILL INDICATED OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR STILL REFRAINS FROM ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUT WILL STILL WAIT FOR THE FROPA AND WILL THEN COMMENCE WITH
CANCELLATIONS.
OTHERWISE...INTENSE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLATEAU
CONTINUES. THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER...APPRECIABLE SHEAR STILL EXISTS
OVER THE CURRENT WATCH AREA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
309 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A
SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA RIDING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
THERE. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE WEAK RIDGING TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AS SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS...WITH SATURATION NEARLY UP TO
800MB BUT PLENTY OF DRYING ABOVE THAT. THE RESULT WAS EXPANSIVE
STRATUS AND SOME FOG THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAS REALLY HELPED DISSIPATE THE STRATUS...THOUGH. AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA WITH RESPECT TO WARMTH EXHIBITS 850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C PER
12Z RAOBS...WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...850MB TEMPS ARE 22-26C OR 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. 700MB TEMPS ARE ALSO QUITE WARM...RANGING FROM 14-17C FROM
RAPID CITY AND AMARILLO WEST TO SALT LAKE CITY. TO OUR
NORTHWEST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GOING ALL DAY
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...PUSHED EAST BY THE
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTING AND SHEARING OUT INTO
WYOMING BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS ALL THE WARM AIR OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL SPILL EAST AND TRY TO HEAD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING SOME
BLOCKING TO THE WARM AIR. AS A RESULT...WHILE 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BY
00Z WEDNESDAY TO 14C NORTH TO 18C SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...READINGS OF 24-36C LOOK COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS...A MUCH WARMER DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.
IF WE CAN MIX UP TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB TEMPS...READINGS WOULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...TEMPERATURES SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE MID MAY.
WITH THE WARMER AIR COMING AT US...THERE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION. TONIGHT APPEARS DRY WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM 925MB TO 700MB ALL FOCUSED WEST OF THE AREA. IN
FACT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH THE CURRENT CLOUDS
DISSIPATING WITH DIURNAL COOLING GIVEN THEIR NOW CELLULAR NATURE.
ON TUESDAY...THAT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
PROGGED TO BYPASS US TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH ITS RELATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
SOME VERY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE 10.06Z/12Z NAM...10.06Z HIRES ARW AND 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN
ALL CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
APPEAR TO COME OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADDED 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER WITH
THE CHANCES BECAUSE OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB LIKELY ABSORBING SOME
OF THE RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL HAMPER TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TO
THEIR FULL MIXING VALUES MENTIONED EARLIER.
LASTLY...FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SKIES CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY...
LIGHT WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MOIST SOILS ARE ALL VERY
FAVORABLE FOR FOG. THIS LOOKS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN VALLEYS WHERE
EVAPOTRANSPORATION OF MOISTURE CAN POOL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND
IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
THE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
PERIOD...PRIMARILY RELATED TO ALL THE WARM AIR COMING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SYNOPTICALLY...THE MAIN FEATURE TO LOCK
ONTO IS THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...
WHICH MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AS THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THERE. USING THE 10.12Z MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS
PAST MODELS...A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS CAN PLAY OUT:
1. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND LIFTING TO THE SIOUX FALLS AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN VARIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING THIS WILL
HELP BREAK THE CAPPING PRESENT BETWEEN 650-700MB...RESULTING IN AN
MCS WHICH THEN CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD BRING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-15Z WEDNESDAY. THE MCS COULD BE A BOW
ECHO. THE 10.06Z/12Z HI RES ARW MODELS...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY GOOD
STORM SCALE MODEL FORECASTS...HINT AT THIS SCENARIO.
2. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FIRE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CAPPING.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THESE ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AS IN SCENARIO 1 WHICH
WOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE 10.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN SUGGESTS
THIS SCENARIO.
3. NOTHING HAPPENS OR MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST TUESDAY NIGHT
LIKE THE 10.12Z ECMWF...AND WE HAVE 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO IOWA LATE IN THE
DAY MOVES IN.
SO FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD EVEN END
UP DRY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCES OF 60-70 GOING PER
SCENARIOS 1 AND 2...AND DID SHIFT THEM NORTH TO COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS. ALL 3 ABOVE SCENARIOS SUGGEST THE SECOND PART OF SCENARIO
3 IS TRUE...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALMOST LOOK LIKE FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF A
SURFACE LOW WHICH IS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...I.E. A MORE
WINTER/SPRING LIKE APPEARANCE. THUS...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTED THE CHANCES FARTHER NORTH TO COME
INTO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALSO ENDED UP COOLING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
COOLED FURTHER.
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST GETS EASIER. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
BUILD UP THROUGH THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
KICK THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AT 00Z THURSDAY
SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AND DRYING TO
OCCUR. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALSO SENDS 850MB TEMPS DOWNWARD TO 10-12C
BY 18Z THURSDAY...THUS EXPECT COOLER BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
10.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
THE DEEP PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS GOING TO EJECT OUT ON FRIDAY
WHILE NEW TROUGHING REFORMS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THAT
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...IT PUSHES AND
FLATTENS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TOWARDS US. HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRY...WITH ANY
CONVECTION GOING UP WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN IA
IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE. HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THAT WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS EAST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION INTO US. CONSENSUS CHANCES OF 60 WEST TO 20
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND 30-40 FOR SATURDAY SEEM REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS GROWING AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS OF AN MCS TO
FORM FRIDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN IOWA...WHICH THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. IF THIS INDEED HAPPENS...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER US
COULD BE GREATLY REDUCED AS THE MCS TRAPS ANY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TOWARDS US. BEYOND SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
HANDLING OF THAT EJECTING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
SUGGESTIONS OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPROACHING THE AREA
ON SUNDAY PER 10.12Z CANADIAN/GFS...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE 10.12Z ECMWF STILL HAS THAT
FRONT BACK IN THE DAKOTAS KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THESE TWO MODEL
GROUPS BECOME REVERSED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN AND THE CANADIAN/GFS HAVING IT SOUTH OF US.
THUS...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY FEATURE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK AROUND NORMAL
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP OR COOL DOWN BEING IN A MEAN NORTHWEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING AND INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR SLOWLY LIFTING/
ERODING THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS OVER THE FCST AREA THRU THE MORNING.
WITH RATHER LIGHT SFC-700MB GRADIENT WINDS...THIS PROCESS SLOW...
WITH SOME VFR/MVFR STRATO-CU CIGS LOOKING TO LINGER INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC-850MB RIDGE OF HIGH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE IN THIS
RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING THE STRATO-CU WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING. SFC RIDGE AXIS...LIGHT WINDS/ LEAR
SKIES AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME RADIATIONAL BR WITH MVFR
VSBYS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS FOR THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING. IF THE CLEARING IS DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...
AREA OF IFR VSBYS IN BR/FG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MS AND LOWER WI RIVER VALLEYS. VFR CONDITION
EXPECTED TUE ONCE ANY BR/FG WOULD BURN OFF IN THE MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1232 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEAKENING AS IT
MOVED ESE INTO CENTRAL IL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS
DEFORMATION ZONE WERE ATTEMPTING TO WRAP BACK INTO OUR FAR SE
COUNTIES...BUT WERE DISSIPATING. STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WAS IN
PLACE FROM THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH MINNESOTA...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
S/W TROF AND 110 KT JET STREAK MOVG ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS ENERGY APPEARED POISED TO CLIP NORTHERN WI LATER
TODAY. CLOUDS HAD SCATTERED OUT OVER MUCH OF GRB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING.
PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID-MORNING. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR SE COUNTIES EARLY TODAY...SO WILL NOT MENTION.
S/W TROF AND JET STREAK MOVG RAPIDLY THROUGH ND AND NW MN SHOULD
MOVE INTO N WI LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCT
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FA. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOST
NUMEROUS OVER NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY (CAPE
300-400 J/KG) IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
OF ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE FAR NORTH. CONSIDERED GOING WITH LIKELY
POPS OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT OPTED FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS INSTEAD...AS
THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH MUCH LESS QPF THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
MIXING THROUGH 875-850 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LEADING TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A MILD NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
50S.
ON TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE AND JET ENERGY WILL SKIM BY
TO OUR NORTH AS A WEAK/SHALLOW COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW POPS OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT POPS MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED OVER MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUBSEQUENT
FCSTS. MIXING THROUGH 850-800 MB SUPPORTS A WARM DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO FOCUS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION
FOR AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND LEFT THE NORTH DRY BECAUSE
OF THIS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SHOULD KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY SO HAVE LEFT SOME CHANCE POPS
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
MVFR/VFR CU FIELD FILLING IN OVER CNTRL WI WHERE
CLEARING HAD TAKEN PLACE EARLIER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THESE CLOUD
BASES TO RISE INTO THE 3-4K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STRATOCU FIELD LOCKED OVER ERN WI FOR MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SW LWR MI PULLS
FARTHER AWAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHWRS SOMEWHERE OVER NE
WI AS DEW PTS ARE AROUND 60 DEGS. NE WI TO THEN SIT BETWEEN
SYSTEMS TNGT WITH SKIES ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN
WITH LIGHT WIND/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REGIME...FOG WL DEVELOP AND
POTENTIALLY LOWER VSBYS TO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY
IFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING TUE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK