Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
357 PM PDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WEST COAST. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS LATE ON SUNDAY. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BATTLE AREAS LOW CLOUDS, BUT THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE SOME
SUN AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE A SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA, RANGING FROM THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST. MODEL FORECAST 850 MB
TEMPS WILL WARM ANOTHER 1-2C, PEAKING NEAR 27-28C ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS DIRECTLY OVER NRN CA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MID 100S AT LEAST, WHICH WILL ABOVE DAILY RECORDS FOR
EARLY JUNE SEVERAL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN
A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MODELS HAVE BECOME
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER, WHICH WOULD TEND TO PUSH THE TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
EXPECT THE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY RESTRICTED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. WHILE PWS ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPROACH 1 INCH SUNDAY NIGHT, NEARLY ALL OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 500 MB, OR AT LEAST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS MEANS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER
HIGH-BASED WITH LITTLE ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL. GENERAL TROUGHING WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PERSIST NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY COOLER BUT MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
MEANWHILE AT THE COAST, MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT HAS INTENSIFIED TODAY, WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING, RESULTING
IN BETTER MIXING AND DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TONIGHT WILL
START OFF CLEAR, BUT EXPECT SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE EEL
RIVER VALLEY AND HUMBOLDT BAY, AND PERHAPS AROUND FORT BRAGG,
RESULTING IN CLOUDS THERE THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. DO NOT SEE
ANY INDICATIONS OF THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHING OFFSHORE, EXCEPT
PERHAPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR AND STRATUS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE GRADIENT AT LEAST WEAKLY ONSHORE, SO KEPT TEMPS AT THE
COAST FROM GETTING TOO WARM. EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE LOW TO
MID-60S WE SAW TODAY. THERE STILL SHOULD BE SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT MORNING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR WILL ARRIVE, RESULTING IN GREATER
COVERAGE AND INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. WITH THE GENERAL
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND A DECENT SFC GRADIENT, EXPECT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MIXING TO CLEAR MOST LOCATIONS OUT EACH AFTERNOON. AAD
&&
.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUT ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST.
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AT KCEC AS GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AND DAYTIME
HEATING HAS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WINDS THERE ARE PRESENTLY
GUSTING OVER 25 KTS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KCEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
STRONG AND NAM INDICATES FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
NAM...GFS..AND RUC FOG TOOLS ALL INDICATE POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT BUT LIMITED VSBY REDUCTION. HOWEVER...MOS INDICATE IFR
VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE GROUND AT
KCEC WITH MVFR VSBYS AND BKN LOW CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AT KACV AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE COAST N OF CAPE MENDO AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KUKI OVERNIGHT. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS FROM AROUND THE AREA HINT THAT
PRESENT WIND FORECAST IS ON TRACK TO PERHAPS A BIT HIGH.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROF INLAND AND BUILDING HIGH OVER THE E PAC
WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
FOLLOWING SUIT. OFFSHORE GALE WARNING AND NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAIN ON TRACK. ALTHO PROBABLY NOT A SLAM DUNK...SHOULD
BE ENUF AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF HAZARDOUS SEAS IN ZONE 450 TO
WARRANT UPGRADING HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO A WARNING. HAVE NOT
MODIFIED START OR END TIMES OF THESE PRODUCTS. IT APPEARS WE ARE
NEAR THE HEIGHT OF THE AMPLITUDE AND PERIOD OF SSW BACKGROUND
SWELLS. WILL UPDATE THE EXISTING MWS FOR HAZARDOUS BREAKING WAVES
ALONG S FACING HARBORS AND COVES AND EXTEND THRU TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED LATE TONIGHT OR DURING THE
DAY SHIFT SAT. /SEC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT WX WITH LOW RHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS
UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE DISTRICT. DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE 100S AND
AFTERNOON RHS IN THE TEENS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10 MPH AWAY FROM THE COAST, AND WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER NRN CA WILL BRING A SCHC OF
TSTMS SUN AND COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR TO NW CA. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SUN...SO CONFIDENCE
INCREASING REGARDING CONVECTION SUN. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND
RELATIVELY DRY, HOWEVER WE CONTINUE TO THINK COVERAGE WILL BE TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT A FIRE WX WATCH/WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING.
AAD/BC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ450-455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE ALREADY
KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE WAVE OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO AND RUC QG MID LEVEL FIELDS SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF DECENT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY
OF ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
WILL MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST TO EMPHASIZE THIS.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MOST LOCALES.
.AVIATION...NOT PLANNING ON MANY CHANGES TO UPCOMING TAF. NOT SURE
IF TEMPO GROUP CURRENTLY IN TAF WILL BE TOO MUCH COVERAGE AS
SUBSIDENCE FIGHTING STABILITY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE UPPER
WAVE. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED SO WILL MAKE THE CALL CLOSER
TO 18Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER WY
AND WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTN. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING
SE ACROSS CNTRL WY AND WILL LIKELY BE NR THE CO-WY BORDER BY 12Z.
MEANWHILE THE LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN CO WILL BE SSE TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. CAPES BY AFTN WILL RANGE FM 500 J/KG ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE TO NR 1000 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS. THUS WITH
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SHOULD SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
THERE IS SOME SHEAR WITH THE MID LVL FLOW IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE.
THUS THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OVER THE PLAINS WITH
MARGINAL LARGE HAIL. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE WILL BE A CHC
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AS WELL. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN OVER NERN
CO MAY END UP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
BY TONIGHT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEASTERLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO COLORADO WITH
WEAKENING...MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS WEAK UPWARD Q-G VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED FOR THE CWA
SATURDAY...THEN DOWNWARD MOTION SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS BENIGN
ENERGY NOTED THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS HAVE A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AND SOME UPSLOPE TO MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. THE
UPSLOPE CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. EASTERLIES ARE PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE REST OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS PRETTY DRY. FOR THE MOST
PART...40S F DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED ON SATURDAY...DECREASING A TAD
FOR SUNDAY. THE CAPE VALUES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
ALL THE CWA ARE PRETTY MEAGER...NOTHING OVER 300 J/KG. SUNDAY`S
ARE EVEN LESS. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS HAVE A CAP IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. SAME ON SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR NOW. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TINY
BIT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATRUDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO TODAY`S.
SUNDAY`S CLIMB SOME 3-5 C. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MODELS KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER US MONDAY...THEN THEY
SHOW A WEAK DYING UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY. MORE
RIDGING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ALL FOUR
DAYS...EVEN WITH TUESDAY`S TROUGH. NO POPS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION...SHOULD SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE 19Z-23Z TIME
PERIOD HOWEVER INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SLY AND THEN BECOME MORE
SELY BY 18Z. FOR THIS EVENING SHOWER THREAT SHOULD END BY 01Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING DRAINAGE.
HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
BURN AREAS THIS AFTN HOWEVER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY SO RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN MOST
PLACES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1017 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS NE PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS VICINITY
AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH JUST THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OVERNIGHT. HRRR DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY EAST COAST AND GIVEN LATEST TRENDS
UPSTREAM, HAVE KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN AREAS.
/GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS COULD AFFECT
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BUT NOT INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AS CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. BUT OVERALL ACTIVE CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING OR OVER NIGHT.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO FLORIDA. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES ARE ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
EASTERN GULF. IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE COASTAL AREAS TO THE
INTERIOR AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRIGGER OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
WESTERN METRO AREAS. OVERALL, THE REASONING IS THAT THE STRONGEST
RAINFALL WILL STAY OVER THE INTERIOR.
FOR SUNDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF
FLORIDA AND INDUCE A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND, BUT WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD STILL REACH THE WESTERN METRO AREAS. INTERESTING TO MENTION
IS THAT PART OF THE SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS MADE A
NORTHWARD TURN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN US AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND ANDREA. THIS HAS BEEN
SHOWN BY A VERY LIGHT WHITISH APPEARANCE OF THE SKY YESTERDAY AND
TODAY. THE NAVY MODEL CAPTURED THIS VERY WELL. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE EAST
RATHER THAN SOUTHERLY BELOW 700 MB.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE INTERIOR DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES. FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US, AMPLIFYING THE FLOW AND
ALLOWING FOR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, POSSIBLY AS A CUT-OFF LOW, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT WELL THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE,
SHOWING A SHIFT FROM EASTERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS A COLD POOL IN THE
500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C, WHICH IS 2-3C BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
THEREFORE, INCLUDED HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED FOR THE MOST PART
TO INLAND AREAS. THEREFORE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE
BRIEF MVRF OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWER OR
STORM THAT MANAGES TO MOVES ACROSS A SITE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON TURNING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN 5-10 KNOTS TOMORROW EAST COAST SITES. SSW SEA
BREEZE 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING EAST AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT AT APF AND SE
5-10 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH SPEEDS BELOW 15
KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO
BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL PROBABLY RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO
50 PERCENT IN THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. NO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
UPDATE...
A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO,
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
CONTAINS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 2.1 TO 2.3. MOST
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS, INCLUDING THE SPC SREF, INDICATE
THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
TODAY IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA, MAINLY FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO TO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION TO EXTEND INTO MIAMI-DADE, AS THE
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND INLAND AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY, THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS FORECAST TO STAY MORE
TOWARD THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE MORE UNIFORM SE FLOW FOR TODAY COULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AREAS FURTHER
INLAND IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY.
BASED ON THIS REASONING, THE FLOOD WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SOUTHERN BROWARD AND NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS THE WATERS FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINS CONTINUE TO RECEDE.
HOWEVER, RESIDENTS SHOULD BE URGED TO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES.
POPS AND WEATHER HAVE ALSO BEEN UPDATED FOR AREAS OF BROWARD AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY TO REFLECT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 900 AM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 84 78 88 / 10 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 78 88 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 76 88 76 89 / 10 30 20 20
NAPLES 75 88 74 91 / 30 40 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
540 AM EDT FRI JUNE 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE LONGWAVE RIDGING
COVERS THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA CAN BE SEEN ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE GA/SC COASTLINE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR HAS ARRIVED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...WHILE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE.
AT THE SURFACE...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS RAPIDLY MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT
QUITE A BIT ALONG WITH A QUICK COLLAPSE OF THE GRADIENT AND
ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS. REGIONAL RADAR DOES STILL SHOW ONE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING ASHORE TO THE SOUTH OF FORT
MYERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FORCED ALONG THE
AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BAND BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF ANDREA AND THE REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THIS BAND
HAS DROPPED JUST SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY IN THE PAST HOUR OR 2 AND NOW
IS PRIMARILY MOVING ASHORE IN COLLIER COUNTY. SOME CHANCE THAT THIS
BAND WILL STILL REBOUND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LEE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE A
WHILE LONGER TO THE SOUTH OF FT. MYERS. LATER THIS MORNING GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE BETTER CONVERGENCE WILL SUBSIDE AS ANDREA CONTINUES
TO LOSE INFLUENCE ON THE REGION AND THIS BAND SHOULD WEAKEN OR AT
LEAST BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TODAY...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING...LACK OF
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT MECHANISM AND LACK OF COLUMN MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. HEADING FURTHER SOUTH...COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCT OF SHOWERS TODAY. ASSUMING THAT
THE CONVERGENT BAND OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF FT MYERS DOES INDEED
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN A WASHOUT IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER
THESE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT RATHER JUST SOME BRIEF QUICK MOVING
SHOWERS AFTER THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES LOOK
SEASONABLE WITH INLAND ZONES APPROACHING 90. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN THE 80S TODAY.
TONIGHT...
DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD ADVANCE ONCE AGAIN.
WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE GULF ARE GETTING WARMER...AND THESE
WATERS ALONG WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE RRQ OF AN
UPPER EASTCOAST SPEED MAX WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT THAT SHOULD THEN SPREAD INLAND...MAINLY FROM THE I-4
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. GRIDS SHOW 30-40% COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WITH
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS INCLUDING THE RRQ JET DYNAMICS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH ADDED DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AS WELL. AGAIN...NOT ANTICIPATING A
WASHOUT...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE LIKELY POPS WITH A
GOOD CHANCE AT A SHOWER OR TWO AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY. THE
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AND LIKELY MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS MAY HELP HOLD
MORE LOCATIONS IN THE 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC
POTENTIAL IS RATHER HIGH...SO WILL NOT TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF SUNNY
BREAKS TO APPROACH 90. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. UPPER JET WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO EXIT NORTHEASTWARD...BUT WITH AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SUPPORT
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP 20-30% POPS IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY..
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR THE FINAL DAY
OF THE WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS TIME.
SHOULD SEE THE PATTERN ALLOW AT LEAST A WEAK SEA-BREEZE TO TRY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT E-SE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTHWARD. THESE OPPOSING FLOWS SHOULD MAKE THE WEST COAST OF
THE PENINSULA THE DOMINANT FOCUS FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
SO...AFTER A GENERALLY QUIET MORNING...EXPECTING AN ACTIVE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID CONUS AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE EAST U.S. WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS SOUTH INTO
SOUTH FL BY MIDWEEK. FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES IN TO THE EASTERN STATES...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE U.S.
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION OR AS BROAD TROUGHINESS ACROSS FL IN THE GFS
SOLUTION. THE FRONTAL TROUGH DECAYS AS IT SAGS INTO FL WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST.
INITIAL SW FLOW ALOFT...THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH...AND SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR MAINLY CHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AFTER MIDWEEK
SOME DRYING WORKS IN ON NW FLOW ALOFT...AS THE TROUGH/LOW REACHES
THE EASTERN STATES...THE FRONTAL TROUGHS DISSIPATES...AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO WESTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING MOVES SOUTH THEN EAST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL REBUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS OVERNIGHT. BKN VFR/LCL MVFR WITH VCNTY SHRA
IN THE MORNING. VFR CIGS WITH VCNTY TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE LATE MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD ONE
TYPICAL OF OF EARLY TO MID JUNE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 75 88 75 / 20 30 60 30
FMY 88 75 89 74 / 50 40 60 30
GIF 90 73 90 73 / 20 30 60 30
SRQ 87 76 88 74 / 30 40 60 30
BKV 90 71 89 70 / 20 30 60 30
SPG 87 76 89 76 / 20 30 60 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-LEE-
MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
413 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...CIRCULATION CENTER OF T.S. ANDREA LIFTING UP THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE ERN
GOMEX IN HER WAKE. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY...
SINKING MID LVL OMEGA VALUES...AND AN UPR LVL AIRMASS THAT IS
LARGELY CONVERGENT. LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS RESPECTABLE WITH
H100-H85 VALUES AOA 60PCT...BUT DIMINISHES TO BLO 50PCT THRU THE
H85-H50 LYR. THE 00Z RAOBS DEPICT THIS WELL WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING FROM 2.2" AT KJAX TO 1.6" AT KTBW. EARLY MORNING RADAR/SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN CONVERGENCE LINE OF SHRAS PUSHING INTO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...SUGGESTING HIGHER MOISTURE AND BETTER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE SRN CWA.
NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON AOB 20PCT POPS N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS
ADVERTISED BY THE 07/00Z GFS MOS OUTPUT...MODEL INDICATES STEEPENING
MID LVL LAPSE RATES THAT ALLOW CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB ABV THE 2000
J/KG MARK OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. DEFINITELY WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES DUE TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE...
BUT WILL KEEP ALL AREAS IN THE SCT CATEGORY.
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY AS ANDREA LIFTS OUT
OF THE LCL SPHERE OF INFLUENCE BUT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...OR AT LEAST
DELAY IT THRU LATE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE L90S AREAWIDE...SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S AREAWIDE WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S.
SAT-SUN...
DRY SLOT IN WAKE OF TC ANDREA IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY FILL WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE DURING SAT. BACKED FLOW TO THE SOUTH ASCD WITH ATLC
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHING NEAR THE AREA WILL HELP MOISTURE
ADVECTION. FAVORABLE S-SW STEERING LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH
FORMATION OF SEA BREEZE AND OTHER SFC BOUNDARIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WL LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST AN HALF INCH TO
INCH PCPN OVER A GOOD NUMBER OF AREAS BY SAT EVENING.
DURING SUN RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA. THIS WL
PRODUCE A TREND TOWARD INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND THUS CONCENTRATE
HIGHER POP POTENTIAL INLAND. LIGHT EASTERLY-SE FLOW ALOFT WL NOT
PRECLUDE ANY AREAS HOWEVER FROM A STORM MENTION. RAIN COVERAGE
(SCATTERED) SHOULD BE LESS OVERALL THAN SATURDAY.
NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHCS LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONAL INTO AT LEAST TUE/WED
DUE TO SUITABLE MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. MAP FEATURES OVER THE CONUS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA
MIGRATING EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASCD BROAD TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
WED. SOME LOCAL DRYING IS SHOWN PAST MIDWEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO CLOSE OUT WITH
LOWER THAN NORMAL POP DUE TO SOME DRYING.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 07/14Z...SWRLY WIND SHEAR 20-25KTS BLO FL015...TEMPO MVFR CIGS
BTWN FL015-025. BTWN 07/14Z-07/18Z...VFR ALL SITES...SW SFC WND
G18-22KTS CONTG THRU 07/22Z. BTWN 07/18Z-07/22Z...PROB30 IFR TSRAS N
OF KTIX-KISM...VCTS KMLB/KVRB...SCT IFR TSRAS S OF KVRB-KOBE. AFT
22Z...BCMG VFR ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LATEST OBS FROM BUOYS 009/012 INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS STILL PRESENT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...THOUGH S/SW WINDS AT
009 WERE BORDERLINE. EVEN SO...THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT IS GENERATING
VERY ROUGH WIND WAVES WITH HEIGHTS BTWN 5-6FT...DOMINANT PDS ARND
5SEC. WILL KEEP THE SCA IN PLACE THRU THE NEXT FCST CYCLE. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE BASE OF T.S. ANDREA PRODUCES A MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE
BREEZE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVES OUT OF THE LCL SPHERE OF INFLUENCE...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO AOB 12KTS. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT
OFFSHORE.
NEXT WEEK...PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE WL ALLOW FOR MORE FAVORABLE
WIND AND SEA STATE EARLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEA HGHTS IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE WITH HIGHER SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND GENERALLY A
PRIMARILY LOCAL WIND WAVE COMPONENT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
AT TIMES EXTENDING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS/SEAS HIGHER NEAR STORMS
MOVING OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 74 87 72 / 30 20 60 40
MCO 92 74 89 72 / 30 20 70 40
MLB 89 74 87 73 / 50 30 70 40
VRB 90 74 87 73 / 50 40 70 40
LEE 91 73 90 73 / 30 20 60 40
SFB 93 74 90 73 / 30 20 60 40
ORL 92 74 89 74 / 30 20 70 40
FPR 90 75 87 73 / 50 40 70 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 436 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013/ ANDREA CONTINUES TO THE BE
INITIAL FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUING TO
BE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CENTER OF ANDREA IS ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING AND THE RAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD THOUGH...THE AREA OF RAIN HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST. BOTH LOCAL WRF AND HRRR ARE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA EXITING THE CWA BY MID
MORNING WITH THE LOCAL WRF ABOUT ONE TO TWO HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
HRRR. HAVE SEEN SOME LOW END GUSTS ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA
BUT NOTHING THAT MEETS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
AFTER THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA MOVES OUT...SHOULD HAVE A LULL
IN TERMS OF PRECIP FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR WITH A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADVERTISED LIKELY
/WEST/ TO CHANCE /EAST/ POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY NOT
CARRY HIGHER POPS LATE ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING. BY SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE CWA AND SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE. WITH THIS
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL AGAIN
HAVE A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY.
HYDRO....
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH 24
HOUR MPE VALUES SHOWING AROUND TWO INCHES WITH UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS. THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. COULD SEE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO
AN INCH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH RAINFALL FROM ANDREA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE WESTERN PART OF IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE REST
OF THE WATCH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
11
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INTO THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME PUMP MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH WITH PWATS CLOSING IN
ON 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER WHERE I WILL CARRY HIGH END CHANCE
POPS. FOR MONDAY...MIDWEST TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST AS
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE. GFS IS NOT
NEARLY AS SHARP WITH THE TROUGH OR AS SOUTHERN TRENDING AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE MAINTAINS A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT PERHAPS LESS MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. AT THIS POINT...WITH AT LEAST SOME UPPER ENERGY PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH
END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
ONCE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
BUT LEAVES OUR AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...FAVORABLE FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION OR TIMING THIS
FAR OUT. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
FAVOR THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE UPPER ENERGY LOOKS MOST LIKELY
TO RESIDE. THE MOST POTENT OF THESE LOOKS TO BE ON THU AFTERNOON
AS GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY LINING UP WELL WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER MODEL RUN BUT THESE
POPS MAY TOO NEED TO BE PUSHED HIGHER AS EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHRA FROM ANDREA ARE SHIFTING EAST OF AHN AREA SO NO MORE IMPACTS
FROM THE STORM ARE REALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. WITH SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE CIGS THIS
MORNING BUT GIVEN SURROUNDING OBS...ATL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
REACHING A 400FT CIG. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 66 87 65 / 80 40 30 10
ATLANTA 81 66 84 68 / 60 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 78 62 80 61 / 60 30 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 80 63 84 64 / 60 30 20 10
COLUMBUS 85 68 87 69 / 60 20 30 20
GAINESVILLE 80 65 83 66 / 50 30 20 10
MACON 85 67 88 67 / 50 40 30 20
ROME 81 63 84 64 / 60 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 82 63 84 65 / 60 30 30 20
VIDALIA 86 71 89 70 / 50 40 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...LAURENS...OGLETHORPE...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...
TREUTLEN...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
436 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANDREA CONTINUES TO THE BE INITIAL FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
MAIN IMPACT CONTINUING TO BE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CENTER OF ANDREA
IS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING AND THE RAIN ON THE
WESTERN SIDE CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD THOUGH...THE AREA OF RAIN HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST. BOTH LOCAL WRF AND HRRR ARE
SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA EXITING THE CWA BY
MID MORNING WITH THE LOCAL WRF ABOUT ONE TO TWO HOURS EARLIER THAN
THE HRRR. HAVE SEEN SOME LOW END GUSTS ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA
BUT NOTHING THAT MEETS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
AFTER THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA MOVES OUT...SHOULD HAVE A LULL
IN TERMS OF PRECIP FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR WITH A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADVERTISED LIKELY
/WEST/ TO CHANCE /EAST/ POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY NOT
CARRY HIGHER POPS LATE ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING. BY SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE CWA AND SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE. WITH THIS
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL AGAIN
HAVE A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY.
HYDRO....
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH 24
HOUR MPE VALUES SHOWING AROUND TWO INCHES WITH UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS. THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. COULD SEE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO
AN INCH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH RAINFALL FROM ANDREA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE WESTERN PART OF IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE REST
OF THE WATCH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
11
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INTO THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME PUMP MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH WITH PWATS CLOSING IN
ON 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER WHERE I WILL CARRY HIGH END CHANCE
POPS. FOR MONDAY...MIDWEST TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST AS
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE. GFS IS NOT
NEARLY AS SHARP WITH THE TROUGH OR AS SOUTHERN TRENDING AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE MAINTAINS A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT PERHAPS LESS MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. AT THIS POINT...WITH AT LEAST SOME UPPER ENERGY PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH
END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
ONCE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
BUT LEAVES OUR AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...FAVORABLE FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION OR TIMING THIS
FAR OUT. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
FAVOR THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE UPPER ENERGY LOOKS MOST LIKELY
TO RESIDE. THE MOST POTENT OF THESE LOOKS TO BE ON THU AFTERNOON
AS GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY LINING UP WELL WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER MODEL RUN BUT THESE
POPS MAY TOO NEED TO BE PUSHED HIGHER AS EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES...MCN
AND CSG. ALTHOUGH RAIN FROM ANDREA WILL STAY EAST OF THE OTHER TAF
SITES...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHRA BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE WITH ANDREA
BUT CHANCE OF TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH CIGS AT ATL HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY...SOME INDICATION THAT
THEY COULD GO BACK DOWN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE IFR FOR
NOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON CIGS THOUGH. AS ANDREA MOVES OFF TO THE
NE...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO COME AROUND TO THE NW AND SHOULD
BECOME W BY THE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON LEAVING OUT SHRA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 66 87 65 / 80 40 30 10
ATLANTA 81 66 84 68 / 60 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 78 62 80 61 / 80 30 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 80 63 84 64 / 60 30 20 10
COLUMBUS 85 68 87 69 / 60 20 30 20
GAINESVILLE 80 65 83 66 / 80 30 20 10
MACON 85 67 88 67 / 50 40 30 20
ROME 81 63 84 64 / 60 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 82 63 84 65 / 60 30 30 20
VIDALIA 86 71 89 70 / 50 40 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...
OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
15Z/10AM SURFACE CHART SHOWS WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN IOWA S/SE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT NEAR CHARLESTON CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS FROM PARIS SOUTHWARD TO ROBINSON. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE E/SE INTO
INDIANA. HRRR AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP REMAINING EAST OF I-57. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS...SO OTHER THAN INCREASING POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
CU-FIELD IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH
12Z NAM CU-RULE SUGGESTING BKN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT OBS...CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CATEGORY AROUND 4000FT. SOUNDINGS HOLD ON TO A MOIST
LAYER AROUND 4000FT THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO
SCATTER CLOUDS AFTER 03Z/04Z DUE TO DIURNAL NATURE OF CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE N/NE AT 10 TO 15KT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
CLOUD COVER REMAINED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM THE NORTHWEST. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED
SOUTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEW
POINTS DOWN TO 50 DEGREE AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS DECATUR.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES OF INTEREST FOR THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
FOLLOWED BY ANY RAIN MID WEEK. THIS LATTER ISSUE HAS BEEN A
CHALLENGE THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND REMAINS SO THIS TIME AROUND.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG THE WABASH RIVER SHOULD MOVE
LITTLE TODAY...AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY...MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN CWA.
HAVE INTRODUCED 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...
WHILE MAINTAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WEAK CAPES TO AROUND
200 J/KG MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN EASTERN
ILLINOIS.
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET IN BETWEEN UPPER WAVES.
STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE DAKOTAS BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL FAVOR SOME SORT OF
CLOSING OFF OF A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM/GFS FAVORING MORE OF A
NORTHERN TRACK AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS A MORE SOUTHERN PATH.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
WESTERN IOWA AND BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. HAVE NOT MADE TOO MUCH CHANGE
TO TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR AREA...LIMITING
THEM WEST OF I-55. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST CWA... AHEAD
OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY WITH MODEST CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA IS INCLUDED IN THE SPC DAY3 SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS CHALLENGING FOR
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES. FAVORING MORE OF A ECMWF/CANADIAN BLEND
AT THE MOMENT WITH THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SO WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE LOW FURTHER EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS STILL PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN HAVING QUITE A TIME IN
PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH
THE GFS A BIT MORE CONSISTENT BUT HAVING ITS OWN ISSUES. THE
LATEST RUN OF BOTH MODELS ARE COMPARABLE WITH A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHIFTS THE ASSOCIATED AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH. THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF I-55 BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
15Z/10AM SURFACE CHART SHOWS WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN IOWA S/SE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT NEAR CHARLESTON CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS FROM PARIS SOUTHWARD TO ROBINSON. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE E/SE INTO
INDIANA. HRRR AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP REMAINING EAST OF I-57. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS...SO OTHER THAN INCREASING POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TODAY.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 555 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK INVERTED
TROF ALIGNED SE-NW ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN. THAT...COMBINED
WITH SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT SCT-BKN
LOW VFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CHALLENGE
WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...ESP NEAR DEC AND CMI WHERE SOME OF
THE SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER COVERAGE OF THE
RAINFALL. LATEST RADAR INDICATES A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DEC AND CMI AND THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN
WILL KEEP IT AWAY FROM THOSE SITES. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN TAFS...OTHER THAN
VCSH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THE SCT-BKN CU FIELD SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE THIS EVE AFTER SUNSET. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NNE TODAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS AND THEN AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
CLOUD COVER REMAINED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM THE NORTHWEST. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED
SOUTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEW
POINTS DOWN TO 50 DEGREE AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS DECATUR.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES OF INTEREST FOR THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
FOLLOWED BY ANY RAIN MID WEEK. THIS LATTER ISSUE HAS BEEN A
CHALLENGE THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND REMAINS SO THIS TIME AROUND.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG THE WABASH RIVER SHOULD MOVE
LITTLE TODAY...AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY...MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN CWA.
HAVE INTRODUCED 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...
WHILE MAINTAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WEAK CAPES TO AROUND
200 J/KG MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN EASTERN
ILLINOIS.
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET IN BETWEEN UPPER WAVES.
STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE DAKOTAS BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL FAVOR SOME SORT OF
CLOSING OFF OF A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM/GFS FAVORING MORE OF A
NORTHERN TRACK AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS A MORE SOUTHERN PATH.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
WESTERN IOWA AND BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. HAVE NOT MADE TOO MUCH CHANGE
TO TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR AREA...LIMITING
THEM WEST OF I-55. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST CWA... AHEAD
OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY WITH MODEST CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA IS INCLUDED IN THE SPC DAY3 SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS CHALLENGING FOR
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES. FAVORING MORE OF A ECMWF/CANADIAN BLEND
AT THE MOMENT WITH THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SO WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE LOW FURTHER EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS STILL PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN HAVING QUITE A TIME IN
PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH
THE GFS A BIT MORE CONSISTENT BUT HAVING ITS OWN ISSUES. THE
LATEST RUN OF BOTH MODELS ARE COMPARABLE WITH A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHIFTS THE ASSOCIATED AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH. THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF I-55 BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN WY AND WESTERN NE WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE AND KS TONIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL NE...SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KS. ONLY ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
KS AHEAD OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE RESULTING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED
SHOWERS HAVE KEPT THE AIRMASS MORE STABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 22Z AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND IN THE AREA OF STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING H5 TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE ONLY QUESTION IS TO THE DEGREE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF SFC BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS AS IF THE THREAT FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SPC
EMC RAP MODEL SHOWS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS...SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PNHDL. IF
THERE IS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE ELEVATED SHOWERS...THEN PERHAPS
SBCAPES MAY INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT
ALONG THE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ATTM...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS MAY BE GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AS THE H5
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO IA AND EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH MO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR EAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
IA WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES MAY
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW LOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
GARGAN
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEEKEND`S PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND
DEVELOPING INTO A BROAD RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS BROAD RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE...MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
SET UP AS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OR SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS SKIMMING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE DEPENDENT UPON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DIP FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD THOUGH IS WITH THE RISING
TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MIXING FROM 800-850MB DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
UPWARDS OF 21C-28C. ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AIDS IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION WITH 25C-28C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ALSO REMAINING QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
NEXT FEW-SEVERAL HOURS WILL SEE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVE THROUGH
THE TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS NEAR 35KT AND IFR VISBYS IN RAIN ARE
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 06Z
WITH WINDS VEERING INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TS ANDREA MOVING PAST THE REGION...WELL TO
THE EAST AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST. EARLIER...A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERED OVER KENTUCKY/S WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS... ALONG THE VIRGINA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THESE
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DOWN
NEAR 60...MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SKY ALSO STARTED TO BREAK UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA. THIS CLEARING LET TEMPERATURES SPIKE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. APPARENTLY...THIS IS STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO POP ANY CONVECTION DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST. THIS AREA
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IN THESE PARTS
BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SUPPORT FOR ANDREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A MINOR WAVE DOES LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA...PASSING
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME MODERATE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT KEYED IN ON THE NAM12
AND HRRR FOR NEAR TERM SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS CLEARING FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND THE WAKE SUBSIDENCE OF ANDREA DEPARTS.
THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A
SMALL THREAT LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT...
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS...
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN BOTH
THE HWO AND THE ZFP. A WEAK SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE TROPICAL STORM
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHAT EVER DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN.
LOADED THE CONSSHORT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND CONSALL FOR TD/WINDS AND MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. DID
NOT ADD MUCH TERRAIN DIFFERENCE TO THE LOWS DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS STILL AROUND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRIER MAV THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
DURING THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT A 500MB TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHOWING CONFINED AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MAKING ITS
WAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
KY...WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STARTING
OFF THE MORNING DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEAR
DURING THE DAY...AND MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES OFF THE EASTERN COAST
IN RELATION TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BOTH FROM THE EAST AND FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...THEY ARE NOT SO SETTLED ON HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE DURING THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE JACKSON AREA BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP BY SUNDAY
EVENING ACCORDING THE THE NAM AND SLIGHTLY LATER FOR THE GFS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE LEADING UP TO
THIS...THOUGH WITH ANY HEATING OR LIFT...WOULD NOT BE UNLIKELY TO
SEE A SOME ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
MAIN LINE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...PICKING
UP IN COVERAGE AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN FROM THE GULF AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A WASH OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
RESULT. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS MARGINALLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS/CONSENSUS. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO PULL OUT TUESDAY AND STRONG RIDGING PATTERN ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO
MOVE IN...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GEM
DRYING OUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN THE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL POTENTIAL RAIN MAKERS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ON EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION ARE LACKING. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW
BEST POTENTIALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
CORRELATION WITH THE BEST HEATING/INSTABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
DIURNAL SFC HEATING CONTINUES TO LIFT AND BREAK UP CIGS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN JUST ALONG THE VA AND WV STATE LINES. BUT AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
IN EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT OUT
ANY MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE TAFS. THE CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE ADDED
THIS ALL TO THE TAF FORECASTS WITH SME AND LOZ EXPECTED TO GO DOWN
EARLIER AND A BIT HARDER THAN JKL. THE FOG WILL CLEAR EARLY SATURDAY
THEN JUST A CIG OF AROUND 4K FEET EXPECTED. GENERALLY NORTHERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND STAY THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
314 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...GENERALLY PATCHY IN NATURE AT UPDATE TIME BUT
TRENDS APPEAR TO BE TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE TO BEEF UP THE FOG...AND INCLUDED SOME LOCALLY DENSE
WORDING AS A FEW OF THE SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN VSBYS DROPPING TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER MILE. WILL UPDATE THE HWO AS WELL. OTHERWISE GRIDS WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE...SO JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS LATEST HOURLY OBS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT WILL NOT EXIT INTO VA UNTIL LATE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...IF
LOW AND MID CLOUDS THIN...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS POINT WITH THE
GRIDS FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT A SFC
BOUNDARY IS SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND ALSO GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND ON INTO MIDDLE TN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN KY. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME CIRRUS AROUND THE OUTER
EDGE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS ALSO WORKED NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OVERHEAD. THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLIP EAST AND SOUTHEAST
INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
EAST KY...THE RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE 21Z HRRR RUN HAS
SOME CONVECTION LINGERING OR POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING LATE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KY AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVED AND SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AN MCV DRIVEN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTED NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO OHIO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...
BUT APPEAR TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LEVELED CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
HELPED TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS IS ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY AND FACILITATING THE
GROWTH OF CONVECTION. EVEN SO...THE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NO MORE THAN SCATTERED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MEANING THAT MOST PLACES WILL MISS OUT ON A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN THAT MANY HAD HOPED FOR. THIS DESPITE THE HIGH PW AIR
MASS IN PLACE.
THE MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE MAIN
FEATURES ALOFT...WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THEY ALL NOW
AGREE THAT TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST
WITH NOTABLY THE NAM NOW ON BOARD...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER AT THE MID
LEVELS THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. SO WHILE THE PATTERN WITH ANDREA
IS SIMILAR... THE NAM IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND WILL AGAIN BE
DISCOUNTED. TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROLONGING LOW HEIGHTS OVER
THE REGION. A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THIS
TRANSITION AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED A
MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE NAM...FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE NIGHT. CAN/T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
FOR FRIDAY...THE INBOUND TROUGH AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST AS ANDREA MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE. DRIER
AIR AND AN END TO THE POP THREAT WILL WORK INTO THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON TAP FOR LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS KEPT THE FOG TO A MINIMUM LAST
NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME FOR TONIGHT...BUT FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...AS
THE CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT LATE.
STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT FOR WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FIRST
24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL USED BEYOND THAT AND ALSO FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES. AGAIN...DID NOT MAKE MANY TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A MOS BLEND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT AN UNSETTLED PICTURE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY
TRUDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
IN THE WEEK WILL KEEP A STOUT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING OUT BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT INTO OUR
REGION... SO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WHILE TAKING ON A
MORE DIURNAL FLAVOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...WEDNESDAY MAY
END UP BEING THE DRIEST DAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...DESPITE A MID LEVEL CIG OVERHEAD. FOG HAS BEEN
GENERALLY PATCHY IN NATURE BUT TRENDS APPEAR TO BE TOWARDS AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WHILE LAMP AND OTHER GUIDANCE HAVE BECOME LESS
PESSIMISTIC...GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING
AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT A FEW LOCATIONS...KLOZ IN PARTICULAR. OPTED TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS A WORST CASE AT KJKL AND KSME. HOWEVER
KLOZ SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN VSBYS AT TAF ISSUANCE...SO
CONTINUED TO CARRY A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THERE FOR WHAT APPEARS
TO BE SOME LOCALIZED BUILD DOWN STRATUS AND FOG. THE BULK OF ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE KY...VA...WV
STATE LINES. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ELSEWHERE BUT THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH THAT ANY MENTION WAS LEFT OUT OF
THE TAFS UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH
A NORTHERLY TENDENCY...ESPECIALLY WHEN WINDS INCREASE ABOVE 4 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
209 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...GENERALLY PATCHY IN NATURE AT UPDATE TIME BUT
TRENDS APPEAR TO BE TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE TO BEEF UP THE FOG...AND INCLUDED SOME LOCALLY DENSE
WORDING AS A FEW OF THE SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN VSBYS DROPPING TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER MILE. WILL UPDATE THE HWO AS WELL. OTHERWISE GRIDS WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE...SO JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS LATEST HOURLY OBS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT WILL NOT EXIT INTO VA UNTIL LATE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...IF
LOW AND MID CLOUDS THIN...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS POINT WITH THE
GRIDS FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT A SFC
BOUNDARY IS SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND ALSO GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND ON INTO MIDDLE TN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN KY. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME CIRRUS AROUND THE OUTER
EDGE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS ALSO WORKED NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OVERHEAD. THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLIP EAST AND SOUTHEAST
INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
EAST KY...THE RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE 21Z HRRR RUN HAS
SOME CONVECTION LINGERING OR POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING LATE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KY AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVED AND SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AN MCV DRIVEN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTED NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO OHIO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...
BUT APPEAR TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LEVELED CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
HELPED TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS IS ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY AND FACILITATING THE
GROWTH OF CONVECTION. EVEN SO...THE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NO MORE THAN SCATTERED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MEANING THAT MOST PLACES WILL MISS OUT ON A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN THAT MANY HAD HOPED FOR. THIS DESPITE THE HIGH PW AIR
MASS IN PLACE.
THE MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE MAIN
FEATURES ALOFT...WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THEY ALL NOW
AGREE THAT TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST
WITH NOTABLY THE NAM NOW ON BOARD...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER AT THE MID
LEVELS THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. SO WHILE THE PATTERN WITH ANDREA
IS SIMILAR... THE NAM IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND WILL AGAIN BE
DISCOUNTED. TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROLONGING LOW HEIGHTS OVER
THE REGION. A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THIS
TRANSITION AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED A
MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE NAM...FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE NIGHT. CAN/T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
FOR FRIDAY...THE INBOUND TROUGH AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST AS ANDREA MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE. DRIER
AIR AND AN END TO THE POP THREAT WILL WORK INTO THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON TAP FOR LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS KEPT THE FOG TO A MINIMUM LAST
NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME FOR TONIGHT...BUT FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...AS
THE CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT LATE.
STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT FOR WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FIRST
24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL USED BEYOND THAT AND ALSO FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES. AGAIN...DID NOT MAKE MANY TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A MOS BLEND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
KENTUCKY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS A 500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHEAR
OUT AND FLATTEN /LOSE STRENGTH/. BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE REGION...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUING TO WASH OUT AND DRYING/IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN KY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PULL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
GULF AND UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPECT TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...SO
DO EXPECT SOME CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME MID LEVEL CU TO CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AND JET FORCING CONTINUES NE UP THE COASTLINE. IN
MIDST OF COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR AROUND
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME...500MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN
AND QUICKLY DROP SEWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL
SET UP ACROSS KY BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH
SRLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE PULLING WARM MOIST AIR OUT OF THE GULF
AND WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE OTHER HAND
SHOWS WINDS IN A MORE W TO NWRLY FASHION...INDICATING A GOOD SHEERED
ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO THE UPPER LEVELS. WITH A BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT WITH WARM MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED IN...WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY NIGHT...INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO TREK TO THE NE AND BEST MOISTURE/COLD FRONT GETS PULLED
FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS GO INTO QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAST THIS PROGRESSION NEWRD TAKES PLACE AND
HOW LONG RESULTING MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN ERN KY...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH CONSENSUS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL HAVE
TAKEN HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS...MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE. AS DRIER AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION...ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES WILL CEASE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS BREAK IN THE
MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES
NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS IN SUCH
DISAGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WILL LEAN ON
MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...DESPITE A MID LEVEL CIG OVERHEAD. FOG HAS BEEN
GENERALLY PATCHY IN NATURE BUT TRENDS APPEAR TO BE TOWARDS AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WHILE LAMP AND OTHER GUIDANCE HAVE BECOME LESS
PESSIMISTIC...GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING
AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT A FEW LOCATIONS...KLOZ IN PARTICULAR. OPTED TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS A WORST CASE AT KJKL AND KSME. HOWEVER
KLOZ SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN VSBYS AT TAF ISSUANCE...SO
CONTINUED TO CARRY A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THERE FOR WHAT APPEARS
TO BE SOME LOCALIZED BUILD DOWN STRATUS AND FOG. THE BULK OF ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE KY...VA...WV
STATE LINES. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ELSEWHERE BUT THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH THAT ANY MENTION WAS LEFT OUT OF
THE TAFS UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH
A NORTHERLY TENDENCY...ESPECIALLY WHEN WINDS INCREASE ABOVE 4 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
140 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2013
Updated the forecast to add patchy fog. Some ASOS/AWOS sites have
already dropped into the 2-5 mile range in light fog this morning so
think that we`ll continue to see patches of fog develop in an
environment rich with low level moisture. Latest RR and LAMP
guidance agrees with this assessment along with 0Z model soundings.
Still, upper level clouds and a low stratus deck expected to develop
this morning will limit fog from becoming too widespread or dense.
Issued at 945 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2013
Weak and fairly diffuse frontal boundary dropping southward through
Kentucky as the surface low pulls east into the Appalachians.
Convection is pretty much dissipating, but in the last half hour we
have observed a brief isolated shower just within sight of the WFO,
and radar returns show a couple of isolated showers back near
Evansville. Given the lack of lightning, will remove thunder but
continue to carry a 20ish POP into the evening, which taken
literally seems generous, but is just enough to get the mention in
our products.
Still some concern about fog overnight, but with winds staying up
around 5 mph and quite a bit of lingering cloud cover, would think
we would have a hard time generating any widespread or dense fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2013
Showers have begun to increase in coverage again this afternoon,
especially across central Kentucky. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue across this area as a low pressure system over northern
KY/southern OH shifts east through the afternoon and evening hours
and drags a weak front through the area. Across southern Indiana and
along the Ohio River the precipitation chances will be more
isolated. These storms should rapidly diminish this evening with dry
conditions then expected for the remainder of the night. Some
guidance does suggest some fog formation towards morning across
eastern portions of the forecast area. However, confidence in this
is not high given that it does look like a low cloud deck will
redevelop. Therefore, will not include it in the forecast for now.
Lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 60s.
As an upper level trough crosses the region tomorrow scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to redevelop.
However, coverage looks to be less than today. Precipitation will
again diminish tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow will be in
the upper 70s to around 80 with lows tomorrow night in the lower 60s
once again.
.LONG TERM (Saturday - Thursday)...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2013
Saturday and Saturday night we`ll be on the backside of an upper
ridge with weak ridging at the surface. Models print out QPF on
Saturday but with the ridging plus a healthy cap and relatively low
atmospheric moisture, will stick with a dry forecast even though a
stray afternoon pop-up shower or storm isn`t entirely out of the
question.
Sunday and Sunday night a sharp upper trof will dig from the middle
Missouri Valley to the Ohio Valley, slowly moving off to the east by
late Monday night. At the surface low pressure will spin up
Saturday night over Iowa as the upper trof digs in, and should then
advance to Illinois by Monday morning and Lake Ontario by Tuesday
morning. Capping will weaken and moisture increase enough by Sunday
afternoon that we will stand a better chance of convection than on
Saturday, so will have scattered showers/storms in the forecast.
Those scattered showers/storms will then remain in the forecast
through Tuesday as the aforementioned system slowly plods across the
region. Sunday night into Monday look like the most likely time for
rain.
Upper ridging then tries to build in, but stays anchored over the
desert Southwest...putting us beneath northwest flow Tuesday through
Thursday. After some brief, weak ridging at the surface for a dry
night Tuesday night, we`ll have to bring shower and thunderstorm
chances back into the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday as we not
only will be impacted by systems rippling through the flow, but also
because of a surface system advancing from the Plains into the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Right now widespread severe weather looks unlikely, though we`ll
have to keep an eye on Wednesday/Thursday in association with that
Plains storm system coming in.
Temperatures will be fairly typical for this time of year. Highs
will be around 80 through Tuesday, then warming up into the middle
80s Wednesday/Thursday. Lows will be in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2013
Main TAF concerns will be low vsbys/cigs this morning. Good low
level moisture remains in place from rains yesterday especially at
BWG/LEX. According to model guidance, all TAF sites should see some
flight restrictions between roughly 7-16Z this morning. BWG/LEX
look most favorable to drop into the IFR cat with perhaps LEX being
slightly more prone to IFR restrictions due to rains
later in the day yesterday than BWG. SDF looks least likely to be
impacted by IFR conditions and will keep their TAF in the lower end
of MVFR. By 15-17Z, conditions should improve to VFR with some
scattered afternoon/evening rain showers possible and an isld rumble
of thunder not out of the question. Winds will remain out of the
NNE through the TAF period under 7kts.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........AMS/RAS
Short Term.......EER
Long Term........13
Aviation.........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
718 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MN HOLDS...AND IF IT CONTINUES
THE TREND OF DRIER MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM...KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IA/MN THRU 6Z. COMPLEX OF
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACROSS FAR SW MN HAS ERODED SOME OF THE DRIER AIR
THRU THE EARLY AFTN TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HOLD ONTO LIKELY FOR
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL AFT 3Z/09...AND MOST
LIKELY AFT 6-9Z BASED ON THE LATEST RAP TRENDS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NE OF MPX
FA...THE SFC LOW HAS WEAKENED COMPARED TO SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
AGO...AND IS MORE IN LINE OF THE EC THAT HAD THE SFC/UPPER LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA A FEW DAYS AGO ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND TSRA CHC/S
TO A MINIMUM...OR UNTIL AFT 18Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR FAR EASTERN MN/WC WI. DUE TO THE SLOWER AND
WEAKER SOLUTION OF THIS WX SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION AMTS MAY BE
LOWER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
UPPER LOW AFFECTING MN/WI TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND STILL BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH TROUGH
AXIS STILL ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MONDAY MORNING. 12Z DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM40...GEM AND ECMWF...KEEP A VERY WEAK
GRADIENT ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT THE WESTERNMOST
COUNTIES. 15Z SREF ALSO SUGGESTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. WITH RAIN FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING...THINK THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE WITH LITTLE REASON FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR ON
MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPMENT...WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NOT REALLY HAPPENING
UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON MONDAY.
ONCE THE LOW DRIFTS BY...SYSTEMS BEGIN ARRIVING AT A FASTER PACE.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN LATER ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER.
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LONGEST PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HAVE LOWER 50S
FOR NOW BUT COULD IMAGINE SEEING SOME UPPER 40S. THERE IS SOME HINT
A WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS MN TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
RIDGE REACHING THE DAKOTAS. BUT THIS SHOULD JUST PRODUCE SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CLOUDS...WILL STICK WITH 50S FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR UPPER RIDGE TO BE OVER WESTERN MN IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT IT IS RATHER FLAT. A PAIR OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRST ONE
WILL DAMPEN BUT THE SECOND ONE ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH. BUT MN/WI SHOULD STILL BE IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS AS MAIN LOW TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
INDIANA. DOES NOT REALLY LOOK LIKE A SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT FOR
OUR AREA.
TROUGH DEPARTS WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES. ECMWF...GEM AND GFS GENERALLY BRING IT OVER MN/WI
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING
FLATTENED AS LEAD SHORT WAVE FROM NEXT DEEP WESTERN TROUGH MOVES IN.
THUS WILL HAVE MORE POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
BESIDES KRWF...MOST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 6-9
HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MOVING IN. HOWEVER...THE
STEADY/MORE INTENSE RAIN IS ON ITS WAY TONIGHT AND ONCE THAT SETS
UP MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MVFR VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD HAPPEN CLOSER TO SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
WORSEN TOMORROW MORNING...WITH IFR EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR BY THE NOON HOUR TOMORROW...JUST HARD TO BE TOO CONFIDENT IN
SPECIFIC TIMING ON WHEN THE WORST CIGS/VIS ARRIVES. SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR WILL LINGER UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...
THE CEILINGS AND ANY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO ARRIVE...BUT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HAVE ARRIVED OR BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE AIRPORT BY SUNRISE. THE WALL OF WATER SHOWING UP
ON RADAR TO OUR SOUTH IS HEADED THIS WAY. WE THINK THERE COULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS BECOME
LIGHTER OR DIMINISH. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE AIRPORT WILL LIKELY
BE 1500 FT OR LOWER FOR A CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF ONCE
IT SETS IN. THIS MEANS LESS THAN OPTIMAL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
EVENING TRAVEL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH -DZ POSSIBLE. WND BCMG N 5 KT.
MON...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...VFR BY AFTN. WND NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND LGT/VAR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1220 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG IN MVFR VSBYS BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE A SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FROM 17-22Z FRI. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE S/SE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AT INL HIB
BRD AND DLH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT 3-4 SM FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AROUND 03Z. WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG AT HYR LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A WEAK WAVE WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW AGAINST AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. WEAK
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS STILL OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ONE
MOVES OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO THE CWA BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
SOUTH AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER OUR
EASTERN WISCONSIN ZONES. WE EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO END
LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AND HAVE
A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THE RAP SHOWS MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS A BIT HIGHER WILL REMAIN THOUGH. IF
SKIES CAN CLEAR...WHICH THEY WILL IN SPOTS IF ONLY
BRIEFLY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING...AND WE
DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE MID THIRTIES TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION SOME
PATCHY FROST THERE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
CLOUD TRENDS AND ADJUST TEMPS DOWN IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS.
WE DO EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
FROM TWO HARBORS DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS. THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FURTHER...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE UPPER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE HIGH RES
RUNS...SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WE WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
30 PERCENT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER FOR MANY
AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THE GRADIENT DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AS
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER DEPARTING UPPER TROF/COLD POOL
SATURDAY AFTN. INCLUDED SLGT CHC THUNDER SWRN EDGE OF CWA BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT REGARD. FCST THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEKEND REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ALTHOUGH MDL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING SYSTEM WILL MOVE
FARTHER SOUTH OF CWA WITH LESS CHANCE OF PRECIP. WILL STILL CARRY
CHANCE RAIN SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY GEM IS PUSHING PRECIP
FARTHER NORTH. GFS/ECMWF TRENDING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. UPPER RIDGING
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK SO A QUIET PATTERN TRIES TO EMERGE.
ALLBLEND BRINGS POPS BACK INTO CWA TUES NIGHT HOWEVER DETERMINISTIC
CONSENSUS IS THAT MSTR TRANSPORT DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. MID
LVL SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS WED/EARLY THURSDAY SO POPS APPEAR
TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 44 63 49 / 20 20 20 30
INL 68 45 71 49 / 20 10 20 20
BRD 67 47 70 53 / 20 10 30 50
HYR 68 44 71 52 / 30 20 20 40
ASX 61 42 67 48 / 20 10 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1029 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
CWA...SO EXTENDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 2 MORE
HOURS. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS STRETCHED EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE AREA...HELPING TO KEEP THINGS GOING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE UP FROM THE COAST. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THINGS...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES WELL. MAY TWEAK
THE POPS AGAIN FOR THE EVENING. TEMPS AROUND NATCHEZ WERE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN EXPECTED...GOT SOME RAPID COOLING AFTER THUNDERSTORMS
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. THE FORECAST WAS GOOD OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR JAN FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. SHOWERS WERE EXTENDING EAST INTO MERIDIAN
AREA...BUT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
HATTIESBURG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT...STRONG FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC LOOKS TO
SUPPORT MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THAT.
CEILINGS LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH MAYBE A PERIOD
OF IFR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS WOULD BE FOR HBG WITH
JAN/HKS/MEI HAVING SOME VERY LOW POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 68 89 70 91 / 23 48 59 18
MERIDIAN 68 87 69 91 / 38 56 65 29
VICKSBURG 68 89 69 91 / 21 50 46 18
HATTIESBURG 70 88 71 91 / 34 55 37 46
NATCHEZ 66 87 69 89 / 22 45 33 21
GREENVILLE 67 87 70 91 / 15 50 54 5
GREENWOOD 67 89 69 90 / 21 51 67 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming.
Westerly flow aloft will continue overnight allowing for generally
dry and stable conditions. The exception being weak short wave
energy depicted as a cloud shield on satellite imagery over southern
Alberta. Calgary was reporting virga on their 02z observation. Both
the RUC and HRRR analysis develop an area of isolated showers along
the international boundary after 04z and have included this on the
weather and pop grids. Temperatures overnight look good. Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 0000Z.
VFR conditions will continue over the area at least through the day
on Sunday. A weak disturbance will move along the Montana/Canada
border through around 06Z, bringing areas of mid level cloudiness,
possibly some isolated showers, and occasionally gusty westerly
winds to the Hi-Line (including KCTB and KHVR). Otherwise, skies
will be mostly clear with light winds. However, another weak
disturbance will move along the Canadian border again after 18Z,
bringing similar conditions as this this evening to the Hi-Line
area. Coulston
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 255 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2013
Today through Monday...An upper level ridge over the Pacific
Northwest will be flattened as the jet stream pushes east through
British Columbia tonight. As this transition takes place, a
northwesterly flow aloft over Montana will back to the west and
remain in place through Sunday night. During this time frame it
appears that the weather over Montana will be mostly quiet with
seasonal temperatures. However, there will be a slight chance for
a shower or thunderstorm near the Canadian border tonight through
Sunday morning, but most activity will likely remain north of the
border. On Sunday afternoon, the airmass will also become slightly
unstable near Yellowstone Park with an isolated shower or
thunderstorm possible through the evening hours. Shortwave energy
moves across the Great Basin on Monday with flow aloft backing to
the southwest and the airmass across southwest Montana become
unstable. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the mountains of southwest Montana by mid afternoon with
convection moving to the northeast into central Montana by late
afternoon. There is a potential that a few of these storms may
become borderline strong with gusty winds. mpj
Monday night through Saturday...Models in good agreement early in
period with high pressure ridge being flattened to the south as
low pressure system tracks across southern Canada. meanwhile,
second low pressure trough strengthening as it digs down along
Pacific Northwest coast. This low begins to work its way inland
Wednesday night and Thursday putting Montana under a more unstable
southwest flow with smaller, embedded weather systems being
steered into Montana. With some unstable air and enhanced dynamics
of weather systems, afternoon and evening showers with some
thunderstorms are possible each day through the period. Solutions
as to the where and how much for precipitation vary widely but
indicate most of CWA has a fair chance for some showers...with the
potential for heavier precipitation in some locations particularly
central and north central. Cold front associated with the trough
currently expected to push through Montana Thursday and this could
be an active weather day. At this point model solutions start to
deviate...GFS wants to lift center of low to the northeast into
Alberta while continuing to strengthen. ECMWF slowly tracks center
of low into Oregon and Idaho as it gradually weakens. Overall, a
slightly cooler air mass will be over the region keeping
temperatures slightly cooler through the remainder of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Small streams and creeks remain high and out of their banks across a
large portion of central and north central Montana. Areal flood
warnings will continue for Hill/Blaine/Fergus Counties. Point flood
warnings remain in effect for three locations: Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
These points are expected to remain near or above flood stage into
next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 78 46 76 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 45 74 42 75 / 10 10 0 10
HLN 49 82 51 81 / 0 0 0 20
BZN 43 84 47 82 / 0 0 0 30
WEY 37 76 43 78 / 0 10 10 30
DLN 45 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 40
HVR 48 78 47 78 / 10 10 10 10
LWT 45 76 46 74 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning through Monday morning for Blaine, Fergus, and Hill
Counties.
Flood Warning until further notice for Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SMALL
IN SIZE AND RADAR HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF ANY SPRINKLES WITH THEM.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW MIGHT FALL SHORT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
THE HRRR AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
HINT OF THEM AT THIS TIME...BUT A FEW OF THE CUMULUS ELEMENTS SEEM
TO BE GAINING SOME SIZE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE FRAMES.
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA AND THE CUMULUS ARE FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE. WILL
REMOVE THE SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE MOST OF THE CUMULUS FIELD IS FROM DAY TIME HEATING THE
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SOME MOISTURE THAT LINGERS IN THE MID LEVELS DURING THE
NIGHT AND WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL WILL
IT GET WITH CLOUDS AROUND. WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS
LAST NIGHT IF THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
SKY COVER TOMORROW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. WITH
THAT IN MIND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HIGHS TODAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BRING IN ENOUGH
WARM ADVECTION TO WARM THINGS VERY MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ALOFT: AFTER THE LAST 15 DAYS OF SUPPRESSED WESTERLIES AND THE
MEAN TROF IN THE WRN USA...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THE NEXT 7
DAYS THAT WILL ESTABLISHED A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND TROFS ON BOTH
COASTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH N OF HAWAII...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE E PAC SAT AND PARK OVER TX BY TUE.
IN THE MEANTIME...A POTENT SHRTWV TROF AND 120 KT ULJ ATOP THE HIGH
WILL PRECEDE IT SAT AND ARRIVE HERE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE HIGH
OVER TX AND LOWERING HGTS OVER THE E PAC WILL SEND THE CUT-OFF LOW
/CURRENTLY OFF SRN CA/ NE...ROUNDING THE RIDGE TUE. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN REBUILD OVER THE REGION WED-THU.
SFC: AS LOW PRES TRACKS THRU MT-ND...A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NGT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COOL FRONT SAT.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM NW-SE ACROSS NEB AND KS SUN-TUE AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON ITS COOL SIDE. AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CREST THE RIDGE...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE E
ALONG THE FRONT TUE NGT INTO W. IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT WILL DROP A
LITTLE FARTHER S BUT ITS WRN EDGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TIED TO A
LEE LOW OVER NE CO.
HAZARDS: TSTMS ARE LIKELY SAT. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS ON SVR. THEN
WE NEED TO WATCH FOR MCS ACTIVITY MON-WED...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NGT: FCST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TERMINATES. THIS HAS
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MESOSCALE FORCING AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. MODEL QPFS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE 00Z AND
12Z UKMET INDICATING AN MCS...THE GFS/NAM/GEM LARGELY DRY AND THE
LAST 3 EC CYCLES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
NAM MUCAPE 600 J/KG. 1-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
THREAT FOR SVR.
SAT: IF AN MCS DOES AFFECT PART OF THE FCST AREA FRI NGT...THIS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON WHAT OCCURS SAT AFTN/EVNG. FOR NOW
HAVE TREATED THE TWO PERIODS SEPARATELY...AS IF THEY WILL NOT
AFFECT EACH OTHER. THE COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH A NARROW WARM SECTOR.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE GONE 4-6F WARMER THAN THE 4 AM GID FCST FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CINH WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. ANY LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/RAIN IN THE MRNG AND FCST TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM IN THOSE
AREAS.
SEVERE: STRENGTHENING MID-UPR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL INCREASE
0-5 KM SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES ...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ONE OF THE MORE CONCERNING
ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THAT THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC WIND
WILL BE NORMAL TO THE COOL FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS AND
LESS CLUSTERING. 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 150 M2/S2 SUGGESTS
TORNADO POTENTIAL...HIGHEST NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. IT DOES APPEAR
THE TRIPLE PT COULD BE JUST NE OF THE FCST AREA /MAYBE NEAR OFK?/.
NAM MLCAPE HAS INCREASED 24 HRS AGO AND NOW OFFERS 1000-2000 J/KG
BEFORE ITS CONVECTIVE SCHEME KICKS IN. CLUSTERING OF MODELED HEAVIER
QPF IS BEST ALONG AND E OF HWY 281 WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FRONTAL
TIMING.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
/NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING/ COULD COMPENSATE FOR
LESS THAN IDEAL THERMODYNAMICS /IE SFC DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
60S/.
SAT NGT: CLEARING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST IF THE STRONGER EC IS RIGHT.
SUN: THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND! EXCELLENT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LGT WINDS. THE 00Z/12Z EC DOES SUGGEST A SHWR
OR TWO FROM FULLERTON-OSCEOLA NEB.
MON-WED: WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX.
IN THE WARM SECTOR...SUNNY AND HOT. ON THE COOL
SIDE...P/CLOUDY...MAYBE M/CLOUDY AT TIMES?...WITH THE THREAT OF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MRNG MCS ACTIVITY. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH WE HAVE
NOTED THAT THE GEM/GFS/EC HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THEIR TSTM
CLUSTERS.
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE FOR FCST HEADACHES ON TEMPS AND PCPN
POTENTIAL. THE WAA/CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE MCS ACTIVITY OCCURS. THIS IN AND OF ITSELF
WILL REINFORCE/MODULATE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. THE
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN MCS ACTIVITY AND THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAP WILL
BE VERY SHARP. THESE ARE DETAILS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE.
USE THE FCST WITH CAUTION NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE/VE INDICATED TIME
PERIODS OF LOW POPS AND OTHER PERIODS DRY...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE IF
WE GET AN MCS ROLLING THRU HERE. AGAIN...AM NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
SUCH LOW POPS/DRY FCST. IT/S JUST TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF/WHEN/WHERE
TSTMS WILL OCCUR.
HVY RAIN: THIS SETUP WARRANTS CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
BACK-BUILDING CELL CONFIGURATIONS IF MCS ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES.
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW...THU IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW.
HEAT: PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS COULD SEE A 4-DAY HEATWAVE /90F OR
MORE/ BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUN. 100F IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR 1 OR 2 DAYS AT BEAVER CITY-PHILLIPSBURG- PLAINVILLE KS. WE
COULD SEE THIS HEAT EXPAND INTO S-CNTRL NEB TUE IF THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK N.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL...WITH A
SCATTERED DECK CLOSER TO 4000FT AGL POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT KGRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE THROUGH GAPS IN CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO RIO
GRANDE VALLEY RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG EAST TO SE SFC WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS IN MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...BUT THESE SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SHRA
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST AND SE OF A LINE FROM CAPULIN TO CORONA...
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TSRA CLUSTER OR TWO EAST OF A FT SUMNER TO
ROSWELL LINE TIL 09 OR 10Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR AND VERY LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS WITH FEW AREAS OF FOG THROWN IN TO EAST OF CENTRAL MT
CHAIN THROUGH 15 OR 16Z FRI. SOME MT OBSCURATIONS ALSO ALONG
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THROUGH MOST OF FRI MORN. SPOTTY SHRA AND TSRA
ALMOST A CERTAINTY FRI AFTN...ESPECIALLY TO EAST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. VERY STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS. MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WESTWARD TO THE DIVIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS MAIN
ISSUE THERE.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2013...
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS STILL OVERCOMING INHIBITION FROM THIS MORNING`S
THICK AND PROLONGED LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK...STILL ERODING AWAY
IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NM. THE WEST
INITIATED A TOWERING CU FIELD FIRST...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
QUITE MODEST IN THE LOWER 20S BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE SHOWN TO BE JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE WHERE
STORMS WILL FAVOR BEFORE 5 PM. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE HAS THUS FAR ONLY PRODUCED VERY SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF
WETTING RAIN WITH VISUAL INDICATORS OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT BEFORE
CLOUD GLACIATION OCCURS. IT WILL BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT ANY STORMS THAT ROLL OFF OF THESE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE. THE 18Z HRRR INDICATES STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE RATON RIDGE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM ALSO SUPPORTS THIS.
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION...AND MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WESTWARD SURGE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BETWEEN THE RIO GRANDE AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MODEST
SEEPAGE OF EAST WINDS WILL ALSO SPILL THROUGH FAVORED GAPS/CANYONS
WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AIDING.
ON FRIDAY...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOCUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEAN 0-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FROM NW TO SE AGAIN...BUT SUFFICIENT VEERING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT COULD CREATE A FEW DEVIANT MOVERS WITH STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOWS. IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...DREW
BEST SEVERE MENTION JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH
THE DRIER NATURE OF STORMS TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE KEEPING
CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT ALIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SEE SUBTLE
RISES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY...PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN
FROM THE BAJA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS WILL STEER DEEPER
MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE AND HIGHER-
BASED OR DRIER STORMS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE 592 DAM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER NM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE WHILE ONLY
DRY AND RATHER ANEMIC STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. POPS
REMAIN LOW OR NON-EXISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
SWELLS OVER THE STATE. BY LATE NEXT WEEK THE EUROPEAN SHIFTS THE
UPPER HIGH EAST WHILE A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...A BIT TOO PREMATURE FOR THE MONSOON.
52
.FIRE WEATHER...
...HOT...DRY AND UNSTABLE PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AIR MASS TO BECOME MOST UNSTABLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF I-40 TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXPECT ISOLATED STRONG IF
NOT BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE AIR MASS
HAS RECOVERED FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY STORMS SLOWLY TOWARD THE E-SE. GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES AGAIN TONIGHT EAST AND MUCH OF THE
NORTH...WITH IMPROVED RECOVERIES FROM THE DIVIDE WESTWARD BUT STILL
GENERALLY FAIR AT BEST. THINK A BRIEF RETURN OF GUSTY EASTERLY GAP
WINDS A GOOD BET ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY
BENEATH A WEAK NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURE/AIR MASS
RECOVERY WILL BE FAR BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE CROP OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EXPECT A GREATER NUMBER OF STRONG IF NOT
BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING AREAS
NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES FRIDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD MOST NOTABLY THE CENTRAL VALLEY CORRIDOR TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SO MOST CONCERNED WITH INVERTED-V
STORM ENVIRONMENT-- GUSTY WINDS/LIGHTNING WITH NOT MUCH RAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM
BUBBLE OF AIR EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE
BUILDS OUR DIRECTION FROM ARIZONA. MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING LESS
AND LESS FAVORABLE IN TIME BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION ARGUES FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED LATE DAY/EVENING STORMS FROM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
QUARTER. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE REINFORCED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A WILDCARD IN TERMS OF POP
PLACEMENT FOR LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES TO THE NE/EC PLAINS. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HOT...PREDOMINATELY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF DRY THUNDER
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS SUN PM. PRETTY TYPICAL
OF EARLY JUNE...WITH VERY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WE WILL BE
BATTLING A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
BUT MODELS ALWAYS SEEM TO UNDERPLAY THE DEPTH OF MIXING THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND THUS OVERPREDICTS STRENGTH OF ANY CAPPING LAYER THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE AT LIMITING CONVECTION.
BEYOND SUNDAY...GROWING CONCERNS FOR LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE FORCING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN/TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN. HAVE
TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TUE PM BUT WITH HAINES INDICES
OF 6 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COULD BE CRITICAL PERIOD DESPITE
SPEEDS WELL BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
916 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA LIFTS NORTH INTO VIRGINIA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY...AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM SATURDAY...
OVERNIGHT: THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK LOW TOWARD
KAVL...WITH A DIFFUSE...WAVY BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THE LATEST LOCAL RADAR IMAGES SHOWED
A SHOWER OR TWO TRYING TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND
THE LOW...CLOSE TO THE YADKIN RIVER. THE 00Z KGSO SOUNDING SHOWED A
ROBUST CAP NEAR 650MB...SO PERSISTENT SHOWERS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
OCCUR. THE LATEST HRRR WRF...HOWEVER...DOES DEPICT A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER AND MOSTLY WEST TOWARD THE BOUNDARY
DIMINISHING BY 04Z OR 05Z...WITH THE DEFINITE BULK OF THESE
REMAINING WEST OF THE YADKIN RIVER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND
POSSIBLY ADD AN ISOLATED SHOWER IF THE TREND ENDS UP FARTHER EAST.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS FROM DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH WAS
STREAMING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
LATEST CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL TENDED TO HANDLE THESE BETTER THAN
THE GFS...AND THE SKY MAY END UP SOLIDLY PARTLY CLOUDY...AND EVEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES...OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. MOST LIKELY
TO SEE MORE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO FALL A
LITTLE FASTER DURING THE EVENING. SREF PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WERE LOW...BUT MUCH OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BULLISH
ON IFR-TYPE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT KRDU AND KRWI. BASED ON THE
TEMPERATURE AND SATELLITE TRENDS...LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY ON
AVERAGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE...AND ADDED PATCHY FOG
FROM AROUND THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG SEEMS TO BE...IN COMBINATION WITH THE RECENT
RAINS...FALLING TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS...AND RELATIVELY FEWER
CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY 65 TO 70. -DJF
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS AND MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESUMES... BETWEEN A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST TOWARD MI AND A LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO
NC. THIS WILL DRAW ANOTHER SET OF UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF TOWARD NC... WHILE 850 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ANEW. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST... PLACING ALL OF
CENTRAL NC BACK INTO A WARM MOIST REGIME WITH SOUTHERLY OR SSW
WINDS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NC BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON... HOWEVER THEY CONFLICT AS TO WHERE STORMS
WILL FIRST DEVELOP... WITH THE NAM/GFS SHOWING THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT ALONG THE RETREATING
SURFACE FRONT... WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE COVERAGE EARLIER
ALONG/EAST OF I-95 WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
(AND WHERE AN INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY PLAY A ROLE)... ALTHOUGH
IT TOO EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FARTHER WESTWARD
OVER THE PIEDMONT. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK UP TO
1.8-2.0 INCHES... AND WITH THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION... THERE IS VALIDITY IN
BOTH SOLUTIONS AND THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SEA BREEZE STORMS
FOLLOWED BY BETTER COVERAGE FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN
PIEDMONT... WHERE MODEL FORECAST K-INDEX VALUES RISE UP TO AROUND
35C. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 6.0 C/KM HOWEVER
(AS 500 MB TEMPS STAY WARM)... WITH FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 20 KTS... SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LOW... BUT MODELS DO SHOW MUCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
WET CONDITIONS WITH SO MUCH RAIN OVER CENTRAL NC THE LAST FEW
DAYS... ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD PROMPT LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
HIGH WATER ON CREEKS AND IN STREETS. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
SPREADING TO LIKELY WEST AND GOOD CHANCE EAST THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOULD DIP
LOWER AFTER SUNSET... HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF A VERY MOIST COLUMN
(PW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 1.8-2.0 INCHES OVERNIGHT) AND MODEL
DEPICTION OF AT LEAST ONE WEAK WAVE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE
AT NIGHT... WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY 84-88 WITH QUITE A BIT OF AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS. LOWS 67-70 WITH MORE PATCHY FOG EVEN OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAIRLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. OTHER THAN WARM
ADVECTION OR A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
NO REAL DISCERNIBLE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WHILE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG FEED OF MOISTURE FROM OF THE
GOMEX AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...INSTABILITY MAY BE HAMPERED BY CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK/MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. PW
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...HOWEVER...SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN
TO FALL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS HAS AGAIN SPED UP WITH THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT...MOVING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...AND
WOULD ACCORDINGLY SUPPORT A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION
TUESDAY. A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH 35-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES CURRENTLY
NOTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH DAY.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE A TOUCH
LESS MUGGY TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...
ONCE THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS THE EAST COAST...AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US BY MIDWEEK...LEADING TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND OUR
AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES APPROACHING 1430M AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 20C SUPPORT HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WOULD ALSO SUGGEST REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST...WITH MODELS SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE LATE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND IS FAR
LESS CERTAIN...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND ANAFRONTAL-LIKE PRECIP INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND THE ANTICIPATED
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP....
MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER 08Z SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR VISBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER...WITH BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR
CIGS. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY AT KINT AND KGSO...CONFIDENCE OF THESE SHOWERS OCCURRING
AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE MENTION
OUT FOR NOW. KEEP IN MIND THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHOWER OR STORM SHOULD IT OCCUR. -KC
LOOKING AHEAD: IFR OR LIFR FOG AND STRATUS MAY FORM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING...AND A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...KC/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1135 AM FRIDAY...
UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR ANDREA`S
CENTER THROUGH NC. THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK TAKES THE CENTER
ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 1 AND I-95 THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL
BRING THE STRONGER WINDS ON THE RIGHT (EAST) SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER EXPECTED... EXTREME WINDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED HERE. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
20-25 MPH... AND PERIODIC GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH... PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR ARE THE HIGHEST WINDS WE`RE
EXPECTING. THIS COULD TOPPLE A COUPLE OF WEAK TREES AND/OR KNOCK
DOWN SOME BRANCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING REMAINS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS EVENT... AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK/BRIEF RAPID SPINUPS EAST OF I-95. -GIH
FROM 1015 AM THIS MORNING...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.
LATEST ESTIMATED POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TS ANDREA BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY IS JUST WEST OF FLORENCE SC. THERE ARE PLENTY OF HOLES IN
THE RAIN SHIELD OVER CENTRAL NC... BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL MORE
RAINBANDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING REMAINS EVERYWHERE... SO
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE
HEAVY RAINBAND LOCATED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER AS THIS BAND MAY TRAIN HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND WRN PIEDMONT. THE RAP AND HIGH-RES WRF RUNS TAKE THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 19-20Z... AND OUT OF FAR NORTH
CENTRAL NC BEFORE 00Z... LEAVING BEHIND PATCHY SHOWERS HEADING INTO
MID EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THIS
SCENARIO... WHICH IS REASONABLE AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVED
RADAR TRENDS.
AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR... THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS FOR OUR EXTREME EASTERN
EDGE OF COUNTIES EAST OF I-95 WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE NEAR
500 J/KG... STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS... AND 0-1 KM SRH OVER
250 M2/S2 COEXIST. THE RISK OF SHORT-LIVED RAPID SPINUPS WILL BE
GREATEST IN ANY AREAS WHERE A LITTLE SUN CAN BREAK OUT AND LEAD TO
LOCALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG BUOYANCY. TORNADO WATCH
CONTINUES IN THIS AREA UNTIL 1 PM.
HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO... MORESO OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CWA WHERE RAIN AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD DOWN THE DIURNAL RISE
TODAY. HIGHS FROM 74 FAR NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND FAR SOUTH. CERTAINLY THOUGH... TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP ON A LOCAL
BASIS IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY SUNSHINE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
TONIGHT...AFFECTS OF ANDREA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE BREEZY OUT OF THE W-NW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT AS A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXIMUM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO SOLID CHANCE IN THE WEST THOUGH DID TREND POPS DOWN A BIT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BULK SHEAR VALUES 30-35KTS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO BROKEN BANDS...SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THOUGH DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
REGIME WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG) CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. BULK
SHEAR VALUES 30-35 KTS INT EH AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BUT SHEAR DECREASES LATE IN THE DAY AS JET
LIFTS TO THE NE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN THE HWO. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING
SATURDAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON INSOLATION RECEIVED PRIOR TO
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
BRIEF WEAK S/W RIDING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH A CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS... THINK WE CLOUD
STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
THUS... WILL GO WITH A LOW END CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(GENERALLY DIURNAL)... WITH A LOW END SVR THREAT... GIVEN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KTS OR LESS. MORE OF A CONCERN WOULD BE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS... GIVEN
THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THE RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... EXPECT WE
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90... DESPITE
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1410 TO 1415 METER RANGE. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/W ENERGY/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL U.S. BY
SUNDAY... THEN EASTWARD AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER BY EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK... WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER... MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL S/W/LOW. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...
IT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS (WHICH HAS SHOWN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN).
HOWEVER... THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO TRACK THE MID LEVEL LOW
FURTHER SOUTH... BUT NOW IS MORE PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS. THIS
SHOULD YIELD DECREASING POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA... WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK... AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKING
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AREA DEPICTING ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... IN THE 80S... WITH LOW SIMILAR... IN THE
60S... TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TS
ANDREA LIFTS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC AND EVENTUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH 20-21Z...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE...MVFR
CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND IF WINDS BECOME
LIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER ALABAMA...IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO COMPLEXITY OF OF THESE
SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LOW.
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...WITH VFR POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KGSO AND
KINT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC...AS A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY EVENING. WARM AND
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AND AFTERNOON SHOWS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1135 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1135 AM FRIDAY...
UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR ANDREA`S
CENTER THROUGH NC. THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK TAKES THE CENTER
ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 1 AND I-95 THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL
BRING THE STRONGER WINDS ON THE RIGHT (EAST) SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER EXPECTED... EXTREME WINDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED HERE. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
20-25 MPH... AND PERIODIC GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH... PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR ARE THE HIGHEST WINDS WE`RE
EXPECTING. THIS COULD TOPPLE A COUPLE OF WEAK TREES AND/OR KNOCK
DOWN SOME BRANCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING REMAINS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS EVENT... AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK/BRIEF RAPID SPINUPS EAST OF I-95. -GIH
FROM 1015 AM THIS MORNING...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.
LATEST ESTIMATED POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TS ANDREA BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY IS JUST WEST OF FLORENCE SC. THERE ARE PLENTY OF HOLES IN
THE RAIN SHIELD OVER CENTRAL NC... BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL MORE
RAINBANDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING REMAINS EVERYWHERE... SO
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE
HEAVY RAINBAND LOCATED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER AS THIS BAND MAY TRAIN HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND WRN PIEDMONT. THE RAP AND HIGH-RES WRF RUNS TAKE THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 19-20Z... AND OUT OF FAR NORTH
CENTRAL NC BEFORE 00Z... LEAVING BEHIND PATCHY SHOWERS HEADING INTO
MID EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THIS
SCENARIO... WHICH IS REASONABLE AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVED
RADAR TRENDS.
AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR... THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS FOR OUR EXTREME EASTERN
EDGE OF COUNTIES EAST OF I-95 WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE NEAR
500 J/KG... STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS... AND 0-1 KM SRH OVER
250 M2/S2 COEXIST. THE RISK OF SHORT-LIVED RAPID SPINUPS WILL BE
GREATEST IN ANY AREAS WHERE A LITTLE SUN CAN BREAK OUT AND LEAD TO
LOCALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG BUOYANCY. TORNADO WATCH
CONTINUES IN THIS AREA UNTIL 1 PM.
HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO... MORESO OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CWA WHERE RAIN AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD DOWN THE DIURNAL RISE
TODAY. HIGHS FROM 74 FAR NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND FAR SOUTH. CERTAINLY THOUGH... TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP ON A LOCAL
BASIS IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY SUNSHINE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
TONIGHT...AFFECTS OF ANDREA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE BREEZY OUT OF THE W-NW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT AS A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXIMUM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO SOLID CHANCE IN THE WEST THOUGH DID TREND POPS DOWN A BIT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BULK SHEAR VALUES 30-35KTS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO BROKEN BANDS...SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THOUGH DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
REGIME WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG) CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. BULK
SHEAR VALUES 30-35 KTS INT EH AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BUT SHEAR DECREASES LATE IN THE DAY AS JET
LIFTS TO THE NE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN THE HWO. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING
SATURDAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON INSOLATION RECEIVED PRIOR TO
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
BRIEF WEAK S/W RIDING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH A CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS... THINK WE CLOUD
STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
THUS... WILL GO WITH A LOW END CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(GENERALLY DIURNAL)... WITH A LOW END SVR THREAT... GIVEN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KTS OR LESS. MORE OF A CONCERN WOULD BE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS... GIVEN
THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THE RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... EXPECT WE
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90... DESPITE
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1410 TO 1415 METER RANGE. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/W ENERGY/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL U.S. BY
SUNDAY... THEN EASTWARD AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER BY EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK... WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER... MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL S/W/LOW. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...
IT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS (WHICH HAS SHOWN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN).
HOWEVER... THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO TRACK THE MID LEVEL LOW
FURTHER SOUTH... BUT NOW IS MORE PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS. THIS
SHOULD YIELD DECREASING POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA... WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK... AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKING
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AREA DEPICTING ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... IN THE 80S... WITH LOW SIMILAR... IN THE
60S... TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM FRIDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB VFR THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA LIFTS NE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC THIS
MORNING...AND NC THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN.
AS ANDREA BEGINS TO LIFT NE OVER THE SC COASTAL PLAIN...WINDS IN THE
NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL BECOME SLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS WITH
GUSTS 25KTS WHILE WINDS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL BE NNW AT
10KTS. IN BETWEEN (ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR)...WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS. AFTER MID AFTERNOON
WITH ANDREA LIFTING NE OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN...SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN SLY EAST OF I-95 BUT BECOME WLY IN THE PIEDMONT. WINDS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD BECOME WLY BY SUNSET.
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE AND RAIN TAPERING
OFF FROM THE SW. EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO BE IN THE VFR RANGE AFTER 3-5
PM MOST LOCATIONS.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY AFFECT THE TRIAD TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT (BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-4 AM SATURDAY) AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY AFFECT CENTRAL NC SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CAUSE BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 4000-6000FT
RANGE. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG EACH DAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1020 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.
LATEST ESTIMATED POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TS ANDREA BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY IS JUST WEST OF FLORENCE SC. THERE ARE PLENTY OF HOLES IN
THE RAIN SHIELD OVER CENTRAL NC... BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL MORE
RAINBANDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING REMAINS EVERYWHERE... SO
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE
HEAVY RAINBAND LOCATED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER AS THIS BAND MAY TRAIN HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND WRN PIEDMONT. THE RAP AND HIGH-RES WRF RUNS TAKE THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 19-20Z... AND OUT OF FAR NORTH
CENTRAL NC BEFORE 00Z... LEAVING BEHIND PATCHY SHOWERS HEADING INTO
MID EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THIS
SCENARIO... WHICH IS REASONABLE AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVED
RADAR TRENDS.
AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR... THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS FOR OUR EXTREME EASTERN
EDGE OF COUNTIES EAST OF I-95 WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE NEAR
500 J/KG... STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS... AND 0-1 KM SRH OVER
250 M2/S2 COEXIST. THE RISK OF SHORT-LIVED RAPID SPINUPS WILL BE
GREATEST IN ANY AREAS WHERE A LITTLE SUN CAN BREAK OUT AND LEAD TO
LOCALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG BUOYANCY. TORNADO WATCH
CONTINUES IN THIS AREA UNTIL 1 PM.
HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO... MORESO OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CWA WHERE RAIN AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD DOWN THE DIURNAL RISE
TODAY. HIGHS FROM 74 FAR NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND FAR SOUTH. CERTAINLY THOUGH... TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP ON A LOCAL
BASIS IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY SUNSHINE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
TONIGHT...AFFECTS OF ANDREA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE BREEZY OUT OF THE W-NW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT AS A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXIMUM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO SOLID CHANCE IN THE WEST THOUGH DID TREND POPS DOWN A BIT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BULK SHEAR VALUES 30-35KTS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO BROKEN BANDS...SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THOUGH DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
REGIME WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG) CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. BULK
SHEAR VALUES 30-35 KTS INT EH AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BUT SHEAR DECREASES LATE IN THE DAY AS JET
LIFTS TO THE NE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN THE HWO. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING
SATURDAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON INSOLATION RECEIVED PRIOR TO
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
BRIEF WEAK S/W RIDING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH A CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS... THINK WE CLOUD
STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
THUS... WILL GO WITH A LOW END CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(GENERALLY DIURNAL)... WITH A LOW END SVR THREAT... GIVEN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KTS OR LESS. MORE OF A CONCERN WOULD BE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS... GIVEN
THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THE RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... EXPECT WE
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90... DESPITE
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1410 TO 1415 METER RANGE. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/W ENERGY/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL U.S. BY
SUNDAY... THEN EASTWARD AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER BY EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK... WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER... MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL S/W/LOW. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...
IT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS (WHICH HAS SHOWN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN).
HOWEVER... THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO TRACK THE MID LEVEL LOW
FURTHER SOUTH... BUT NOW IS MORE PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS. THIS
SHOULD YIELD DECREASING POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA... WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK... AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKING
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AREA DEPICTING ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... IN THE 80S... WITH LOW SIMILAR... IN THE
60S... TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM FRIDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB VFR THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA LIFTS NE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC THIS
MORNING...AND NC THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN.
AS ANDREA BEGINS TO LIFT NE OVER THE SC COASTAL PLAIN...WINDS IN THE
NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL BECOME SLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS WITH
GUSTS 25KTS WHILE WINDS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL BE NNW AT
10KTS. IN BETWEEN (ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR)...WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS. AFTER MID AFTERNOON
WITH ANDREA LIFTING NE OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN...SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN SLY EAST OF I-95 BUT BECOME WLY IN THE PIEDMONT. WINDS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD BECOME WLY BY SUNSET.
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE AND RAIN TAPERING
OFF FROM THE SW. EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO BE IN THE VFR RANGE AFTER 3-5
PM MOST LOCATIONS.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY AFFECT THE TRIAD TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT (BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-4 AM SATURDAY) AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY AFFECT CENTRAL NC SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CAUSE BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 4000-6000FT
RANGE. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG EACH DAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND WILL ADD THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION WITH NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW SEEN
ON SATELLITE NEAR PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE MB...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO NW MN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
A FEW SHOWERS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM PORTAGE TO
LANGDON THEN ISOLD THRU DVL TO HARVEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN HRRR 3 KM HAS ACTIVITY
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MUCAPES PER
00Z GFS IS A FEW HUNDRED AND SFC LIFTED INDICES JUST BELOW ZERO IN
AREA FROM NW MN BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST ND. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POP FOR MORNING -SHRA AND AFTN THUNDER IN THIS REGION.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SO FOR NOW WILL NOT HAVE ANY
POPS POST 00Z...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAY HAVE TO HAVE SOME
LOW POPS EXTENDED IN SOME SPOTS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS A PRETTY STRONG ONE ENTERING CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS IN
A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVING MAIN TROUGH OVER WRN SASK INTO
WRN ND TONIGHT THEN MAIN ENERGY DIVING INTO IOWA SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
THUS IT IS LOOKING LIKE SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM IN ERN MT/WRN ND LATER
TODAY-THIS EVE AND MOVE EAST BUT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE QUITE SLOW AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST MN MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT
AS DRY EASTERLY WIND KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE. THUS SLOWED DOWN
ADVANCE EASTWARD OF PRECIP AFTN BUT DID KEEP HIGH POPS IN DEVILS
LAKE-VALLEY CITY REGIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP HANG UP FROM DVL
REGION INTO SE ND INTO CNTRL MN WITH ONLY SLOW ADVANCE INTO DRY
AIR RIDGE OVER NW MN. THUS WENT DRIER ROUTE FOR NW MN...BUT KEPT
HIGH POPS DVL REGION INTO FAR WCNTRL MN SAT NIGHT AND UPPED POPS
SOME INTO WCNTRL MN ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW DECENT PRECIP IN THAT
REGION. SUN SHOWS BEST CHC OF PRECIP IN NW MN BUT IT WILL BE
LIGHT. TOTAL QPF FOR EVENT VIA WPC QPF FIELDS INDICATE 0.75 TO 1
INCH DVL REGION INTO SE ND WITH 0.33 OR LESS NRN VALLEY INTO NW MN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SEVERAL CHALLENGES EMERGE AS THE ADVERTISED
PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS MODELS...WPC GRAPHICS
AND 5 WAVE...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE CWFA. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THE WEATHER
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL I FEEL THE ECMWF IS BETTER THIS PERIOD.
ON MONDAY THE FIRST WAVE THAT TOPS THE RIDGE FALLS INTO THE EASTERN
LONGWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH CWFA. FOR TUESDAY THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP WEST LIMB OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE PLAINS. WHERE THE ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE
THE AREAS OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SWAP ROLES
WITH 00Z ECMWF NOW FARTHER NORTH WITH ENERGY THAN THE GFS. HIGHEST
QPF LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE TRACK.
EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW APPEAR LATE IN THE
PERIOD. BASED ON THE WPC WEB GRAPHICS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST
SUPPORTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS PUTS THE CWFA IN A FAIRLY MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY VERY STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGHER 500MB
HEIGHTS COMING INTO THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A TREND TOWARDS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A SW
COMPONENT NEAR KDVL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A SFC TROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAINLY FROM 21Z-02Z THIS EVENING MAINLY AT THE KGFK...KDVL
AND KTVF SITES. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH BUT HOLD OFF ON THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW...WITH COVERAGE LIKELY NOT THAT WIDESPREAD...BUT
WILL MONITOR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS/WX TO FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND TO
EXTEND THE LOW CHANCES INTO THIS EVENING AS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE SOME ACTIVITY FROM 00Z THROUGH SUNSET. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
FOR MOST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S IN THE EAST TO LOW 70S IN THE WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
NARROW SHOWER BAND FROM WEST OF WINNIPG THROUGH WALHALLA TO LAKOTA
ND MOVING SLOWLY EAST. HRRR PROGS THIS BAND TO MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. AREA WITHIN LOW POP REGION SO LOOKS GOOD....THOUGH DID
CUT BACK POPS ON WRN EDGE AS SHOWER BAND MOVES EAST. HRRR STILL
SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES IN NRN VALLEY INTO NW
MN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW SEEN
ON SATELLITE NEAR PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE MB...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO NW MN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
A FEW SHOWERS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM PORTAGE TO
LANGDON THEN ISOLD THRU DVL TO HARVEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN HRRR 3 KM HAS ACTIVITY
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MUCAPES PER
00Z GFS IS A FEW HUNDRED AND SFC LIFTED INDICES JUST BELOW ZERO IN
AREA FROM NW MN BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST ND. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POP FOR MORNING -SHRA AND AFTN THUNDER IN THIS REGION.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SO FOR NOW WILL NOT HAVE ANY
POPS POST 00Z...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAY HAVE TO HAVE SOME
LOW POPS EXTENDED IN SOME SPOTS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS A PRETTY STRONG ONE ENTERING CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS IN
A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVING MAIN TROUGH OVER WRN SASK INTO
WRN ND TONIGHT THEN MAIN ENERGY DIVING INTO IOWA SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
THUS IT IS LOOKING LIKE SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM IN ERN MT/WRN ND LATER
TODAY-THIS EVE AND MOVE EAST BUT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE QUITE SLOW AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST MN MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT
AS DRY EASTERLY WIND KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE. THUS SLOWED DOWN
ADVANCE EASTWARD OF PRECIP AFTN BUT DID KEEP HIGH POPS IN DEVILS
LAKE-VALLEY CITY REGIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP HANG UP FROM DVL
REGION INTO SE ND INTO CNTRL MN WITH ONLY SLOW ADVANCE INTO DRY
AIR RIDGE OVER NW MN. THUS WENT DRIER ROUTE FOR NW MN...BUT KEPT
HIGH POPS DVL REGION INTO FAR WCNTRL MN SAT NIGHT AND UPPED POPS
SOME INTO WCNTRL MN ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW DECENT PRECIP IN THAT
REGION. SUN SHOWS BEST CHC OF PRECIP IN NW MN BUT IT WILL BE
LIGHT. TOTAL QPF FOR EVENT VIA WPC QPF FIELDS INDICATE 0.75 TO 1
INCH DVL REGION INTO SE ND WITH 0.33 OR LESS NRN VALLEY INTO NW MN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SEVERAL CHALLENGES EMERGE AS THE ADVERTISED
PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS MODELS...WPC GRAPHICS
AND 5 WAVE...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE CWFA. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THE WEATHER
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL I FEEL THE ECMWF IS BETTER THIS PERIOD.
ON MONDAY THE FIRST WAVE THAT TOPS THE RIDGE FALLS INTO THE EASTERN
LONGWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH CWFA. FOR TUESDAY THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP WEST LIMB OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE PLAINS. WHERE THE ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE
THE AREAS OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SWAP ROLES
WITH 00Z ECMWF NOW FARTHER NORTH WITH ENERGY THAN THE GFS. HIGHEST
QPF LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE TRACK.
EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW APPEAR LATE IN THE
PERIOD. BASED ON THE WPC WEB GRAPHICS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST
SUPPORTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS PUTS THE CWFA IN A FAIRLY MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY VERY STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGHER 500MB
HEIGHTS COMING INTO THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A TREND TOWARDS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
EXPECT VFR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WIND 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PD. EXPECT GOOD DEAL OF MID-HIGH CLDS
TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CU THIS AFTN. RISK OF AFTN TSTM BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY ONE TAF SITE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
NARROW SHOWER BAND FROM WEST OF WINNIPG THROUGH WALHALLA TO LAKOTA
ND MOVING SLOWLY EAST. HRRR PROGS THIS BAND TO MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. AREA WITHIN LOW POP REGION SO LOOKS GOOD....THOUGH DID
CUT BACK POPS ON WRN EDGE AS SHOWER BAND MOVES EAST. HRRR STILL
SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES IN NRN VALLEY INTO NW
MN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW SEEN
ON SATELLITE NEAR PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE MB...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO NW MN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
A FEW SHOWERS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM PORTAGE TO
LANGDON THEN ISOLD THRU DVL TO HARVEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN HRRR 3 KM HAS ACTIVITY
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MUCAPES PER
00Z GFS IS A FEW HUNDRED AND SFC LIFTED INDICES JUST BELOW ZERO IN
AREA FROM NW MN BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST ND. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POP FOR MORNING -SHRA AND AFTN THUNDER IN THIS REGION.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SO FOR NOW WILL NOT HAVE ANY
POPS POST 00Z...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAY HAVE TO HAVE SOME
LOW POPS EXTENDED IN SOME SPOTS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS A PRETTY STRONG ONE ENTERING CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS IN
A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVING MAIN TROUGH OVER WRN SASK INTO
WRN ND TONIGHT THEN MAIN ENERGY DIVING INTO IOWA SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
THUS IT IS LOOKING LIKE SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM IN ERN MT/WRN ND LATER
TODAY-THIS EVE AND MOVE EAST BUT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE QUITE SLOW AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST MN MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT
AS DRY EASTERLY WIND KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE. THUS SLOWED DOWN
ADVANCE EASTWARD OF PRECIP AFTN BUT DID KEEP HIGH POPS IN DEVILS
LAKE-VALLEY CITY REGIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP HANG UP FROM DVL
REGION INTO SE ND INTO CNTRL MN WITH ONLY SLOW ADVANCE INTO DRY
AIR RIDGE OVER NW MN. THUS WENT DRIER ROUTE FOR NW MN...BUT KEPT
HIGH POPS DVL REGION INTO FAR WCNTRL MN SAT NIGHT AND UPPED POPS
SOME INTO WCNTRL MN ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW DECENT PRECIP IN THAT
REGION. SUN SHOWS BEST CHC OF PRECIP IN NW MN BUT IT WILL BE
LIGHT. TOTAL QPF FOR EVENT VIA WPC QPF FIELDS INDICATE 0.75 TO 1
INCH DVL REGION INTO SE ND WITH 0.33 OR LESS NRN VALLEY INTO NW MN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SEVERAL CHALLENGES EMERGE AS THE ADVERTISED
PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS MODELS...WPC GRAPHICS
AND 5 WAVE...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE CWFA. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THE WEATHER
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL I FEEL THE ECMWF IS BETTER THIS PERIOD.
ON MONDAY THE FIRST WAVE THAT TOPS THE RIDGE FALLS INTO THE EASTERN
LONGWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH CWFA. FOR TUESDAY THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP WEST LIMB OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE PLAINS. WHERE THE ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE
THE AREAS OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SWAP ROLES
WITH 00Z ECMWF NOW FARTHER NORTH WITH ENERGY THAN THE GFS. HIGHEST
QPF LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE TRACK.
EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW APPEAR LATE IN THE
PERIOD. BASED ON THE WPC WEB GRAPHICS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST
SUPPORTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS PUTS THE CWFA IN A FAIRLY MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY VERY STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGHER 500MB
HEIGHTS COMING INTO THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A TREND TOWARDS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
EXPECT VFR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WIND 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PD. EXPECT GOOD DEAL OF MID-HIGH CLDS
TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CU THIS AFTN. RISK OF AFTN TSTM BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY ONE TAF SITE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
347 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW SEEN
ON SATELLITE NEAR PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE MB...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO NW MN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
A FEW SHOWERS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM PORTAGE TO
LANGDON THEN ISOLD THRU DVL TO HARVEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN HRRR 3 KM HAS ACTIVITY
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MUCAPES PER
00Z GFS IS A FEW HUNDRED AND SFC LIFTED INDICES JUST BELOW ZERO IN
AREA FROM NW MN BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST ND. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POP FOR MORNING -SHRA AND AFTN THUNDER IN THIS REGION.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SO FOR NOW WILL NOT HAVE ANY
POPS POST 00Z...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAY HAVE TO HAVE SOME
LOW POPS EXTENDED IN SOME SPOTS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS A PRETTY STRONG ONE ENTERING CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS IN
A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVING MAIN TROUGH OVER WRN SASK INTO
WRN ND TONIGHT THEN MAIN ENERGY DIVING INTO IOWA SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
THUS IT IS LOOKING LIKE SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM IN ERN MT/WRN ND LATER
TODAY-THIS EVE AND MOVE EAST BUT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE QUITE SLOW AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST MN MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT
AS DRY EASTERLY WIND KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE. THUS SLOWED DOWN
ADVANCE EASTWARD OF PRECIP AFTN BUT DID KEEP HIGH POPS IN DEVILS
LAKE-VALLEY CITY REGIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP HANG UP FROM DVL
REGION INTO SE ND INTO CNTRL MN WITH ONLY SLOW ADVANCE INTO DRY
AIR RIDGE OVER NW MN. THUS WENT DRIER ROUTE FOR NW MN...BUT KEPT
HIGH POPS DVL REGION INTO FAR WCNTRL MN SAT NIGHT AND UPPED POPS
SOME INTO WCNTRL MN ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW DECENT PRECIP IN THAT
REGION. SUN SHOWS BEST CHC OF PRECIP IN NW MN BUT IT WILL BE
LIGHT. TOTAL QPF FOR EVENT VIA WPC QPF FIELDS INDICATE 0.75 TO 1
INCH DVL REGION INTO SE ND WITH 0.33 OR LESS NRN VALLEY INTO NW MN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SEVERAL CHALLENGES EMERGE AS THE ADVERTISED
PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS MODELS...WPC GRAPHICS
AND 5 WAVE...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE CWFA. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THE WEATHER
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL I FEEL THE ECMWF IS BETTER THIS PERIOD.
ON MONDAY THE FIRST WAVE THAT TOPS THE RIDGE FALLS INTO THE EASTERN
LONGWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH CWFA. FOR TUESDAY THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP WEST LIMB OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE PLAINS. WHERE THE ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE
THE AREAS OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SWAP ROLES
WITH 00Z ECMWF NOW FARTHER NORTH WITH ENERGY THAN THE GFS. HIGHEST
QPF LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE TRACK.
EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW APPEAR LATE IN THE
PERIOD. BASED ON THE WPC WEB GRAPHICS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST
SUPPORTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS PUTS THE CWFA IN A FAIRLY MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY VERY STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGHER 500MB
HEIGHTS COMING INTO THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A TREND TOWARDS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA DURING THE MORNING...WITH ISOLD
SHOWERS AND AREAS VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN FA. SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH A VORT TAIL
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE BOTTINEAU/MINOT/ROLETTE
COUNTY AREA. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
CENTRAL FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS
EVENING...SPREADING INTO THE EAST CENTRAL LATER TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE NOTED FROM AROUND KENMARE...NORTHEAST TO JUST WEST OF
WESTHOPE IN BOTTINEAU COUNTY. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...THINK CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER THE 02 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR BRINGS THESE
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. CURRENTLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS TRACKING
FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA WITH THE SOUTH END OF
THE COLD FRONT INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENTLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...AS FAR
SOUTH AS NEAR ESTEVAN. THINK THERE IS YET A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A
SHOWER TO SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES
WANING AS SUNSET APPROACHES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE GOING FOR NOW AND MAY PULL IT WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE IF NOTHING ELSE DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO
BUMP UP CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR NORTH AND UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENTLY ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
LIMITED INSTABILITY SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT EITHER. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
TROUGH WILL WAVER AROUND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BE THE FOCAL POINT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FR TONIGHT
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE JAMES AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEYS. UP NORTH...CLOUDS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 12Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST
TO DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST REGARDING THE PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL H250 JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVE
MOVE OVER THE AREA. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM...MIXED LEVEL CAPE
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 200 TO 600 J/KG...ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO FIRE UP...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GET SEVERE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...BULK SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE
ADVERTISING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.30 INCHES...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE 6/6 00Z RUN...THE 12Z ECWMF/NAM/GFS ARE A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS DOWN. AS
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE FORECAST...HAVE DECIDED
TO USE THE WPC QPF GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
OF UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. FACTORING IN
THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND THE FORECAST QPF VALUES ALONG WITH
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (INCH OR LESS)...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
LATE THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD EAST
AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTH DAKOTA...EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT BEST CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGES THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WAS EVIDENT IN THE WEAK SURFACE WIND FIELD.
THE TROUGH APPARENTLY EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER THE SASK/MAN BORDER TO
BETWEEN MINOT AND STANLEY...AND BETWEEN PARSHALL AND WATFORD CITY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF IT. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AT KMOT AROUND 06Z AND
TO RUGBY/CARRINGTON THROUGH 12Z.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OR BECOME
LESS EVIDENT AFT 15Z AS THE WIND FIELD BECOMES SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KEPT VCTS AROUND KISN/KDIK AROUND 21Z/22Z BUT MORE CERTAIN
THAT AFT 03Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. EXPECT LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE/SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
CANCELLED ALL THE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH
ONGOING OVERLAND FLOODING CONTINUES...IT IS RECEDING SLOWLY AND
ROADS HAVE BEEN SIGNED AND BARRICADED.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOURIS
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM ALSO
APPEARS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. UNCERTAINTY IS GREAT WITH THIS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
THE FUTURE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...LTH
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
651 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MY SERN ZONES. LATEST RUC SHOWS INTENSE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING NORTH AND AFFECTING THE SERN
1/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR HIGHEST QPF AND FLOOD WATCH SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...WITH MAXES PROBABLY ONLY IN THE U60S MTNS...TO NEAR 70
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY.
TS ANDREA IS FCST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND EMERGE OVER
WATER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DEL MARVA. ONCE THE STORM REACHES
CENTRAL NJ PRECIP WILL BEGIN TAILING OFF RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. BY 06Z
I LOWERED POPS DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SMALL
CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE A BIT MUGGY
AND SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS
DIFFER A BIT IN TRYING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. THE SREF AND GEFS DOWNPLAY THINGS SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT
WE WILL START THE DAY CLOUDY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AND JUST AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT A BAD DAY AT
ALL DESPITE AVERAGING A COUPLE OF DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY
TO THE EAST OF 90W AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF MON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COMBINE TO FINALLY NUDGE
THE DECAYING UPPER LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
THE WETTEST TIMEFRAME WOULD APPEAR TO COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADVECTED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE ERN GLAKS
MON AND TUE BEFORE SLOWLY PROPOGATING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER AIR APPROACHES IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROF FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY KEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A
CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY. COMPLICATING
THINGS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS TO MY SOUTH AND DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BROAD SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GLAKS TO WELL OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH COULD
TAP WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND BRING COOL/DRIZZLY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. PLAYED THINGS OPTIMISTICALLY AT THIS
POINT TRENDING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH...AND WE`LL SEE
HOW THE EASTERLY FLOW AND FETCH OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME LIFR NOTED IN THE
WEST...CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF A KTHV TO KSEG
LINE.
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TS ANDREA SHOULD KEEP THIS SAME REGION
IN FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL THROUGH 06Z...THEN TAPERING QUICKLY
AFTER THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH OVERALL DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN...RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CIGS IFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF
TO OUR EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY IFR/MVFR...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS IN THE PM.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR THREE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN STILL A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ON
SMALL STREAMS MAY OCCUR IF THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. MAINSTEM RIVERS NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
324 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MY SERN ZONES. LATEST RUC SHOWS INTENSE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING NORTH AND AFFECTING THE SERN
1/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR HIGHEST QPF AND FLOOD WATCH SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...WITH MAXES PROBABLY ONLY IN THE U60S MTNS...TO NEAR 70
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY.
TS ANDREA IS FCST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND EMERGE OVER
WATER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DEL MARVA. ONCE THE STORM REACHES
CENTRAL NJ PRECIP WILL BEGIN TAILING OFF RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. BY 06Z
I LOWERED POPS DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SMALL
CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE A BIT MUGGY
AND SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS
DIFFER A BIT IN TRYING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. THE SREF AND GEFS DOWNPLAY THINGS SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT
WE WILL START THE DAY CLOUDY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AND JUST AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT A BAD DAY AT
ALL DESPITE AVERAGING A COUPLE OF DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY
TO THE EAST OF 90W AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF MON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COMBINE TO FINALLY NUDGE
THE DECAYING UPPER LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
THE WETTEST TIMEFRAME WOULD APPEAR TO COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADVECTED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE ERN GLAKS
MON AND TUE BEFORE SLOWLY PROPOGATING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER AIR APPROACHES IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROF FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT A
WEAKENESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY KEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A
CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY. COMPLICATING
THINGS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS TO MY SOUTH AND DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BROAD SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GLAKS TO WELL OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH COULD
TAP WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND BRING COOL/DRIZZLY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. PLAYED THINGS OPTIMISTICALLY AT THIS
POINT TRENDING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH...AND WE`LL SEE
HOW THE EASTERLY FLOW AND FETCH OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE IT COULD BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY
LATER TONIGHT...POSSIBLY 10-20 MPH AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE NJ
COAST.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF
TO OUR EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY IFR/MVFR...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...VFR WITH THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS IN THE PM.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN FROM ANDREA
MOVES UP OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES WE NEED OVER 3 INCHES
OF RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND SOME OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE REACHES
THOSE NUMBERS. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR IF THE HEAVY
RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
202 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MY SERN ZONES. LATEST RUC SHOWS INTENSE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING NORTH AND AFFECTING THE SERN
1/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR HIGHEST QPF AND FLOOD WATCH SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...WITH MAXES PROBABLY ONLY IN THE U60S MTNS...TO NEAR 70
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY.
TS ANDREA IS FCST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND EMERGE OVER
WATER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DEL MARVA. ONCE THE STORM REACHES
CENTRAL NJ PRECIP WILL BEGIN TAILING OFF RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. BY 06Z
I LOWERED POPS DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SMALL
CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE A BIT MUGGY
AND SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS
DIFFER A BIT IN TRYING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. THE SREF AND GEFS DOWNPLAY THINGS SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT
WE WILL START THE DAY CLOUDY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AND JUST AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT A BAD DAY AT
ALL DESPITE AVERAGING A COUPLE OF DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW FORMING
IN THE UPPER MS VLY ON SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SEWD FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A HOT UPPER RIDGE MIGRATING EWD ACRS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND WEAKENING WRN ATLC
RIDGE SHOULD PAVE THE WAY FOR THIS ENERGY TO PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM
AND HELP TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALY
OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NERN CONUS...WITH NWLY FLOW PERSISTING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINA COAST.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING
THE H5 SYSTEM AND ASSOCD SFC LOW/FRONT EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY /MID-ATLC STATES ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
TUES. GFS/EC MODEL DIFFS INCREASE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT/POSITION OF A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/MCS ZONE. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE THEIR MOS-BASED DATA
FOR WX ELEMENTS WHICH BRINGS LOW CHC POPS BACK INTO THE SW ZONES
BY THURSDAY.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING TS ANDREA. THE HIGHEST POPS/PCPN SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON DAY 5/MON...THEN GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER /LESS
HUMID/ LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE IT COULD BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY
LATER TONIGHT...POSSIBLY 10-20 MPH AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE NJ
COAST.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF
TO OUR EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY IFR/MVFR...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...VFR WITH THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS IN THE PM.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN FROM ANDREA
MOVES UP OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES WE NEED OVER 3 INCHES
OF RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND SOME OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE REACHES
THOSE NUMBERS. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR IF THE HEAVY
RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1144 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO MY SERN ZONES. FLOOD GUIDANCE IS STILL RATHER
HIGH...BUT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL RAIN HARD OVER A FAIRLY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...AND SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ADAMS...YORK AND LANCASTER.
LATEST RUC SHOWS INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING
NORTH AND AFFECTING THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH OUR HIGHEST QPF AND FLOOD WATCH
SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...WITH MAXES PROBABLY ONLY IN THE U60S MTNS...TO L70S SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCT -SHRA BY
ARND MIDNIGHT...AS REMNANTS OF ANDREA PASS EAST OF PA. HAVE DROPPED
POPS MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...AS MDL DATA STRONGLY
SUGGESTS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
ANDREA.
LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
SUPPORT A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA DURING SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE PWATS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
FURTHER WEST...WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE SAT FCST FOR
NOW.
WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS THAT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS AFOREMENTIONED DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES. THE SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH ENS MEAN 8H
TEMPS ARND 12C...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS FROM ARND 70F OVR THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...TO NR 80F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW FORMING
IN THE UPPER MS VLY ON SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SEWD FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A HOT UPPER RIDGE MIGRATING EWD ACRS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND WEAKENING WRN ATLC
RIDGE SHOULD PAVE THE WAY FOR THIS ENERGY TO PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM
AND HELP TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALY
OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NERN CONUS...WITH NWLY FLOW PERSISTING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINA COAST.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING
THE H5 SYSTEM AND ASSOCD SFC LOW/FRONT EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY /MID-ATLC STATES ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
TUES. GFS/EC MODEL DIFFS INCREASE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT/POSITION OF A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/MCS ZONE. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE THEIR MOS-BASED DATA
FOR WX ELEMENTS WHICH BRINGS LOW CHC POPS BACK INTO THE SW ZONES
BY THURSDAY.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING TS ANDREA. THE HIGHEST POPS/PCPN SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON DAY 5/MON...THEN GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER /LESS
HUMID/ LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT THE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND POSSIBLY GUST 10-20 MPH LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE NJ COAST.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF
TO OUR EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY LOW CIGS/FOG...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
TUE...SCT SHRA. TSTM POSS SE. MVFR NW / VFR SE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN FROM ANDREA
MOVES UP OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES WE NEED OVER 3 INCHES
OF RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND SOME OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE REACHES
THOSE NUMBERS. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR IF THE HEAVY
RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO MY SERN ZONES. FLOOD GUIDANCE IS STILL RATHER
HIGH...BUT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL RAIN HARD OVER A FAIRLY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...AND SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ADAMS...YORK AND LANCASTER.
LATEST RUC SHOWS INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING
NORTH AND AFFECTING THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH OUR HIGHEST QPF AND FLOOD WATCH
SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...WITH MAXES PROBABLY ONLY IN THE U60S MTNS...TO L70S SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCT -SHRA BY
ARND MIDNIGHT...AS REMNANTS OF ANDREA PASS EAST OF PA. HAVE DROPPED
POPS MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...AS MDL DATA STRONGLY
SUGGESTS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
ANDREA.
LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
SUPPORT A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA DURING SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE PWATS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
FURTHER WEST...WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE SAT FCST FOR
NOW.
WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS THAT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS AFOREMENTIONED DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES. THE SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH ENS MEAN 8H
TEMPS ARND 12C...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS FROM ARND 70F OVR THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...TO NR 80F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW FORMING
IN THE UPPER MS VLY ON SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SEWD FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A HOT UPPER RIDGE MIGRATING EWD ACRS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND WEAKENING WRN ATLC
RIDGE SHOULD PAVE THE WAY FOR THIS ENERGY TO PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM
AND HELP TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALY
OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NERN CONUS...WITH NWLY FLOW PERSISTING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINA COAST.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING
THE H5 SYSTEM AND ASSOCD SFC LOW/FRONT EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY /MID-ATLC STATES ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
TUES. GFS/EC MODEL DIFFS INCREASE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT/POSITION OF A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/MCS ZONE. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE THEIR MOS-BASED DATA
FOR WX ELEMENTS WHICH BRINGS LOW CHC POPS BACK INTO THE SW ZONES
BY THURSDAY.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING TS ANDREA. THE HIGHEST POPS/PCPN SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON DAY 5/MON...THEN GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER /LESS
HUMID/ LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE SHIELD OF HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO
SERN ZONES /AND AREAS S AND E OF THERE/ BY MID MORNING. BULK OF
WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE ON EAST SIDE OF STORM...BUT OVER SUSQ
VALLEY NORTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP AT 850 MB
BRINGING A BIT OF WIND SHEAR AS SFC WINDS REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS.
SHARP SW-NE CUTOFF TO HEAVIER PRECIP WILL LEAVE NW 2/3RDS OF CWA
IN MORE SHOWERY LIGHTER PRECIP AREA. BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW
/MAINLY IFR/ AND VSBYS WILL BE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND AREAS
OF SHOWERS.
PRECIP EXITS TO THE NE FRI EVE...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR AREA-
WIDE FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS ON SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY LOW CIGS/FOG...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
TUE...SCT SHRA. TSTM POSS SE. MVFR NW / VFR SE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN FROM ANDREA
MOVES UP OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES WE NEED OVER 3 INCHES
OF RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND SOME OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE REACHES
THOSE NUMBERS. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR IF THE HEAVY
RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
HYDROLOGY...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK IN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...DEFORMATION PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CWFA...FROM ABOUT NEWLAND TO GREENWOOD. PRECIP
RATES IN THIS AREA ARE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR AND
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE ZONE IS TILTING SLIGHTLY WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING EAST FROM GREENWOOD/LAURENS COUNTIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE DFMTN BAND GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER NEXT
FEW HRS. MEANWHILE HEAVIER PRECIP NEARER ANDREA/S CIRCULATION LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO OUR ERN NC PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CHARLOTTE AND ITS ERN
METRO AREA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO THE NC SANDHILLS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON CHARLOTTE AREA FOR HYDRO CONCERNS.
FINALLY...LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER UPPER EAST TN WILL BRING
ENHANCED POPS TO THE CENTRAL NC MTNS THRU THE MORNING...THOUGH
DOWNSLOPING IS EATING THESE UP AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS. REVISED
POPS THRU EARLY AFTN IN LIGHT OF TRENDS AND 11Z HRRR. NOTE THAT WE
STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE THIS AFTN AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO RETURN AFTER THE TROPICAL/STRATIFORM PRECIP
DIMINISHES.
AS OF 500 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS NOW ENTERED SRN
SC...AND CONTINUES A NE TRACK AT INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
MEANWHILE...RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO CHANGE IN CONFIGURATION ACRS THE
CWFA AND THE REGION...BUT OVERALL HAVE NOT INTENSIFIED TO PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL RATES (AT LEAST IN THE CWFA). ONE PIVOT POINT OF
NEARLY STATIONARY MOD-HVY RAIN WAS SEEN IN E-CENTRAL GA. THE 06Z
HRRR HAD THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ZIP N INTO THE SRN UPR SAVANNAH
VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ANDERSON...WHERE
FFG IS LOWEST DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY/S HEAVY RAINS. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...WILL FRESHEN UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS STILL IN
EFFECT TILL 6 PM TODAY. POP GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THRU LATE
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR IN MIND.
PREV DISCUSSION...
LATER TODAY...LLVL FLOW WILL TURN N/NWLY ACRS THE CWFA...AS ANDREA
REACHES ERN NC. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS...AGREES WELL
ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROPICAL RAIN SHIELD AND
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TN VLY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN OUR WRN ZONES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SPREADING IT ACRS THE AREA LATE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING. I TWEAKED POP TRENDS TO LINE UP WITH THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
UPPER TROFFINESS PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS. AT 850 MB...WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WHAT WE WILL LACK IS ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY...DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THERE IS
NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE IT...A CHANCE POP IS WARRANTED. SO...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BASED ON HIGHER
CAPE IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MODELS ACTUALLY RESPOND A BIT
BETTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WERE KEPT IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON AN UPPER TROF
CROSSING THE OH VALLEY MON AND MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TUE. THE GFS IS DRIER IN MID WEEK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH MINOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME AND CROSSING THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A DRIER MID WEEK THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 020 WILL LIKELY BE SEEN THRU EARLY AFTN
UNDER HIGH MVFR CIG. AS T.S. ANDREA SLOWLY DEPARTS THE AREA MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND BETTER HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE LOWER CLOUDS
LEAVING A CONVECTIVE VFR CIG. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LEE TROUGH IN WAKE OF ANDREA. THUNDER CHANCES RISE ACCORDINGLY.
THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EVENING PERIOD WITH
MORE BENIGN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WENT ALONG
WITH IFR STRATUS PROGGED BY SOME GUIDANCE. SHOULD LIFT BY MID
MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE IN CLEARER AREA
WEST OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. ANDREA. THINK THIS
WILL INITIALLY FOCUS IN THE MTNS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST AS THE WHOLE
AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH. SOME THUNDER MENTION
WARRANTED AT ALL SITES. THUNDER LOOKS TO BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN DOMINATING OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BASES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LOW VFR...PERHAPS MVFR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
NEAR DAYBREAK BUT MIX OUT BY MID MORNING. MTN VALLEY FOG ALSO LIKELY
GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS...INCLUDING AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA SHUD EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 90% HIGH 100% MED 69% HIGH 84%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 93%
KAVL HIGH 92% HIGH 94% HIGH 81% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 88%
KAND MED 78% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 83%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003-
006>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TODAY REACHING THE NORFOLK AREA BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...DEFORMATION PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CWFA...FROM ABOUT NEWLAND TO GREENWOOD. PRECIP
RATES IN THIS AREA ARE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR AND
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE ZONE IS TILTING SLIGHTLY WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING EAST FROM GREENWOOD/LAURENS COUNTIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE DFMTN BAND GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER NEXT
FEW HRS. MEANWHILE HEAVIER PRECIP NEARER ANDREA/S CIRCULATION LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO OUR ERN NC PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CHARLOTTE AND ITS ERN
METRO AREA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO THE NC SANDHILLS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON CHARLOTTE AREA FOR HYDRO CONCERNS.
FINALLY...LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER UPPER EAST TN WILL BRING
ENHANCED POPS TO THE CENTRAL NC MTNS THRU THE MORNING...THOUGH
DOWNSLOPING IS EATING THESE UP AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS. REVISED
POPS THRU EARLY AFTN IN LIGHT OF TRENDS AND 11Z HRRR. NOTE THAT WE
STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE THIS AFTN AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO RETURN AFTER THE TROPICAL/STRATIFORM PRECIP
DIMINISHES.
AS OF 500 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS NOW ENTERED SRN
SC...AND CONTINUES A NE TRACK AT INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
MEANWHILE...RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO CHANGE IN CONFIGURATION ACRS THE
CWFA AND THE REGION...BUT OVERALL HAVE NOT INTENSIFIED TO PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL RATES (AT LEAST IN THE CWFA). ONE PIVOT POINT OF
NEARLY STATIONARY MOD-HVY RAIN WAS SEEN IN E-CENTRAL GA. THE 06Z
HRRR HAD THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ZIP N INTO THE SRN UPR SAVANNAH
VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ANDERSON...WHERE
FFG IS LOWEST DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY/S HEAVY RAINS. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...WILL FRESHEN UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS STILL IN
EFFECT TILL 6 PM TODAY. POP GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THRU LATE
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR IN MIND.
PREV DISCUSSION...
LATER TODAY...LLVL FLOW WILL TURN N/NWLY ACRS THE CWFA...AS ANDREA
REACHES ERN NC. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS...AGREES WELL
ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROPICAL RAIN SHIELD AND
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TN VLY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN OUR WRN ZONES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SPREADING IT ACRS THE AREA LATE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING. I TWEAKED POP TRENDS TO LINE UP WITH THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
UPPER TROFFINESS PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS. AT 850 MB...WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WHAT WE WILL LACK IS ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY...DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THERE IS
NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE IT...A CHANCE POP IS WARRANTED. SO...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BASED ON HIGHER
CAPE IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MODELS ACTUALLY RESPOND A BIT
BETTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WERE KEPT IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON AN UPPER TROF
CROSSING THE OH VALLEY MON AND MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TUE. THE GFS IS DRIER IN MID WEEK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH MINOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME AND CROSSING THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A DRIER MID WEEK THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...T.S. ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO
THE NC SANDHILLS. A BAND OF MODT TO HEAVY RA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
AFFECT THE FIELD THRU MIDDAY MINIMIZING IMPROVEMENT IN CIG. MVFR
VSBY WILL PREVAIL DURING THE RAIN. CONDITIONS SHUD IMPROVE EARLY
AFTN...AS ANDREA TRACKS NE OF THE AREA AND A DOWNSLOPE NWLY FLOW
HELPS LIFT CIGS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND
TSRA EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM ACRS THE REGION FROM MID AFTN THRU
THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH THAT PROB30 WAS
CHANGED TO A TEMPO. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BACK AS ANDREA MOVES PAST...EVENTUALLY
SWITCHING TO SW AS A LEE TROF SETS UP ON SW SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
BY MID AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING HAS ALREADY IMPROVED CIGS THIS MRNG. NOW
THAT RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE SPORADIC IN WAKE OF T.S. ANDREA AND
SOME DIURNAL WARMING IS OCCURRING...CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX
UPWARD. A BREAK IN SHRA EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY. THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN/EVE
HOURS. SOME CHC OF TS AT ALL SITES...WITH PROB30S/TEMPOS
HIGHLIGHTING PERIOD OF HIGHEST CHCS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
N/NW THRU MIDDAY...THEN SWITCH TO SW IN THE AFTN /EXCEPT AT KAVL/.
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA SHUD EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT MED 64% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 59%
KGSP HIGH 81% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% LOW 55%
KAVL MED 67% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% LOW 52%
KHKY MED 70% HIGH 100% HIGH 90% LOW 39%
KGMU HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 53%
KAND HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% LOW 58%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003-
006>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TODAY REACHING THE NORFOLK AREA BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...DEFORMATION PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CWFA...FROM ABOUT NEWLAND TO GREENWOOD. PRECIP
RATES IN THIS AREA ARE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR AND
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE ZONE IS TILTING SLIGHTLY WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING EAST FROM GREENWOOD/LAURENS COUNTIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE DFMTN BAND GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER NEXT
FEW HRS. MEANWHILE HEAVIER PRECIP NEARER ANDREA/S CIRCULATION LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO OUR ERN NC PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CHARLOTTE AND ITS ERN
METRO AREA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO THE NC SANDHILLS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON CHARLOTTE AREA FOR HYDRO CONCERNS.
FINALLY...LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER UPPER EAST TN WILL BRING
ENHANCED POPS TO THE CENTRAL NC MTNS THRU THE MORNING...THOUGH
DOWNSLOPING IS EATING THESE UP AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS. REVISED
POPS THRU EARLY AFTN IN LIGHT OF TRENDS AND 11Z HRRR. NOTE THAT WE
STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE THIS AFTN AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO RETURN AFTER THE TROPICAL/STRATIFORM PRECIP
DIMINISHES.
AS OF 500 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS NOW ENTERED SRN
SC...AND CONTINUES A NE TRACK AT INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
MEANWHILE...RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO CHANGE IN CONFIGURATION ACRS THE
CWFA AND THE REGION...BUT OVERALL HAVE NOT INTENSIFIED TO PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL RATES (AT LEAST IN THE CWFA). ONE PIVOT POINT OF
NEARLY STATIONARY MOD-HVY RAIN WAS SEEN IN E-CENTRAL GA. THE 06Z
HRRR HAD THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ZIP N INTO THE SRN UPR SAVANNAH
VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ANDERSON...WHERE
FFG IS LOWEST DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY/S HEAVY RAINS. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...WILL FRESHEN UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS STILL IN
EFFECT TILL 6 PM TODAY. POP GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THRU LATE
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR IN MIND.
PREV DISCUSSION...
LATER TODAY...LLVL FLOW WILL TURN N/NWLY ACRS THE CWFA...AS ANDREA
REACHES ERN NC. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS...AGREES WELL
ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROPICAL RAIN SHIELD AND
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TN VLY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN OUR WRN ZONES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SPREADING IT ACRS THE AREA LATE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING. I TWEAKED POP TRENDS TO LINE UP WITH THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
UPPER TROFFINESS PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS. AT 850 MB...WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WHAT WE WILL LACK IS ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY...DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THERE IS
NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE IT...A CHANCE POP IS WARRANTED. SO...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BASED ON HIGHER
CAPE IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MODELS ACTUALLY RESPOND A BIT
BETTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WERE KEPT IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON AN UPPER TROF
CROSSING THE OH VALLEY MON AND MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TUE. THE GFS IS DRIER IN MID WEEK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH MINOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME AND CROSSING THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A DRIER MID WEEK THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...T.S. ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ACRS THE SC LOW
COUNTRY. A BAND OF LGT-MOD RA HAS SET UP IN A N-S ORIENTATION W OF
THE TERMINAL...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE
AIRFIELD LATER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS...BUT VSBY SHUD STAY VFR FOR THE MOST PART.
CONDITIONS SHUD IMPROVE EARLY AFTN...AS ANDREA TRACKS NE OF THE AREA
AND A DOWNSLOPE NWLY FLOW HELPS LIFT CIGS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM ACRS
THE REGION FROM MID AFTN THRU THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
PROB30 FOR TS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO NLY THEN NWLY THIS
MORNING...THEN FINALLY SWITCH TO SW...AS A LEE TROF SETS UP ON SW
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ANDREA MID-LATE AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY N-S FROM JUST
WEST OF HKY THRU GSP TO GRD. UNDER THIS RAIN SHIELD...A NLY LLVL
FLOW IS HELPING SCOUR OUT IFR CIGS ACRS ALL THE UPSTATE SITES AND
AND HKY...THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOW WILL
ONLY GAIN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
THINK THE IMPROVED CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. VSBYS ARE ALSO NOT AS
BAD AS EXPECTED IN THE RAIN...AS RAIN RATES ARE LIGHT. THE BAND WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. A BREAK IN SHRA
EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS. WILL GO WITH
PROB30 FOR TS AT ALL SITES...HIGHLIGHTING PERIOD OF HIGHEST CHCS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO N/NW THRU MIDDAY...THEN SWITCH TO SW IN
THE AFTN (EXCEPT AT KAVL). GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA SHUD EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z
KCLT MED 73% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% MED 76%
KGSP MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 52%
KAVL MED 72% HIGH 92% HIGH 93% LOW 50%
KHKY MED 67% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% LOW 41%
KGMU MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 64%
KAND MED 76% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 56%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003-
006>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TODAY REACHING THE NORFOLK AREA BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST...BUT TOUCHED UP T/TD
TRENDS THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS TIMING OF PRECIP LOOKS OK BUT IF
ANYTHING MAY BE A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN MOVING THINGS OUT TO THE EAST.
WILL AWAIT NEW HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONSIDER CHANGES OVER NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.
AS OF 500 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS NOW ENTERED SRN
SC...AND CONTINUES A NE TRACK AT INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
MEANWHILE...RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO CHANGE IN CONFIGURATION ACRS THE
CWFA AND THE REGION...BUT OVERALL HAVE NOT INTENSIFIED TO PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL RATES (AT LEAST IN THE CWFA). ONE PIVOT POINT OF
NEARLY STATIONARY MOD-HVY RAIN WAS SEEN IN E-CENTRAL GA. THE 06Z
HRRR HAD THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ZIP N INTO THE SRN UPR SAVANNAH
VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ANDERSON...WHERE
FFG IS LOWEST DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY/S HEAVY RAINS. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...WILL FRESHEN UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS STILL IN
EFFECT TILL 6 PM TODAY. POP GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THRU LATE
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR IN MIND.
AS OF 200 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS CENTERED INVOF
BRUNSWICK GA...TRACKING NEWD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE THAN PREVIOUS
NHC ADV. A RAIN BAND EXTENDING NE FROM E-CENTRAL GA ROUGHLY ALONG
I-85 ACRS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS
DEFORMATION INCREASES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY
PIVOTING FROM A NE-SW TO N-S ORIENTATION THRU DAYBREAK...WITH RATHER
MODEST RAIN RATES. STILL...WITH PWATS AROUND 2" AND GOOD RAIN
EFFICIENCY...COULD SEE SOME AREAS PICK UP A QUICK 1-2" ADDITIONAL
ACCUM IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL OPT TO LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS
FOR NOW. FORTUNATELY...CAPE IS QUITE WEAK AND THE BETTER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN ON THE RIGHT/EAST SIDE OF THE TRACK. SO SVR/TORNADO THREAT
SHUD REMAIN VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. POP/WX/TEMP
TRENDS ALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD THRU MIDDAY TODAY...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE.
LATER TODAY...LLVL FLOW WILL TURN N/NWLY ACRS THE CWFA...AS ANDREA
REACHES ERN NC. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS...AGREES WELL
ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROPICAL RAIN SHIELD AND
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TN VLY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN OUR WRN ZONES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SPREADING IT ACRS THE AREA LATE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING. I TWEAKED POP TRENDS TO LINE UP WITH THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
UPPER TROFFINESS PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS. AT 850 MB...WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WHAT WE WILL LACK IS ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY...DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THERE IS
NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE IT...A CHANCE POP IS WARRANTED. SO...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BASED ON HIGHER
CAPE IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MODELS ACTUALLY RESPOND A BIT
BETTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WERE KEPT IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON AN UPPER TROF
CROSSING THE OH VALLEY MON AND MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TUE. THE GFS IS DRIER IN MID WEEK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH MINOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME AND CROSSING THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A DRIER MID WEEK THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...T.S. ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ACRS THE SC LOW
COUNTRY. A BAND OF LGT-MOD RA HAS SET UP IN A N-S ORIENTATION W OF
THE TERMINAL...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE
AIRFIELD LATER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS...BUT VSBY SHUD STAY VFR FOR THE MOST PART.
CONDITIONS SHUD IMPROVE EARLY AFTN...AS ANDREA TRACKS NE OF THE AREA
AND A DOWNSLOPE NWLY FLOW HELPS LIFT CIGS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM ACRS
THE REGION FROM MID AFTN THRU THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
PROB30 FOR TS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO NLY THEN NWLY THIS
MORNING...THEN FINALLY SWITCH TO SW...AS A LEE TROF SETS UP ON SW
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ANDREA MID-LATE AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY N-S FROM JUST
WEST OF HKY THRU GSP TO GRD. UNDER THIS RAIN SHIELD...A NLY LLVL
FLOW IS HELPING SCOUR OUT IFR CIGS ACRS ALL THE UPSTATE SITES AND
AND HKY...THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOW WILL
ONLY GAIN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
THINK THE IMPROVED CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. VSBYS ARE ALSO NOT AS
BAD AS EXPECTED IN THE RAIN...AS RAIN RATES ARE LIGHT. THE BAND WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. A BREAK IN SHRA
EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS. WILL GO WITH
PROB30 FOR TS AT ALL SITES...HIGHLIGHTING PERIOD OF HIGHEST CHCS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO N/NW THRU MIDDAY...THEN SWITCH TO SW IN
THE AFTN (EXCEPT AT KAVL). GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA SHUD EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z
KCLT MED 71% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% MED 79%
KGSP MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 63%
KAVL MED 77% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% LOW 57%
KHKY MED 66% HIGH 90% HIGH 100% LOW 49%
KGMU MED 76% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70%
KAND MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 67%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003-
006>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TODAY REACHING THE NORFOLK AREA BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS NOW ENTERED SRN
SC...AND CONTINUES A NE TRACK AT INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
MEANWHILE...RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO CHANGE IN CONFIGURATION ACRS THE
CWFA AND THE REGION...BUT OVERALL HAVE NOT INTENSIFIED TO PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL RATES (AT LEAST IN THE CWFA). ONE PIVOT POINT OF
NEARLY STATIONARY MOD-HVY RAIN WAS SEEN IN E-CENTRAL GA. THE 06Z
HRRR HAD THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ZIP N INTO THE SRN UPR SAVANNAH
VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ANDERSON...WHERE
FFG IS LOWEST DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY/S HEAVY RAINS. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...WILL FRESHEN UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS STILL IN
EFFECT TILL 6 PM TODAY. POP GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THRU LATE
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR IN MIND.
AS OF 200 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS CENTERED INVOF
BRUNSWICK GA...TRACKING NEWD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE THAN PREVIOUS
NHC ADV. A RAIN BAND EXTENDING NE FROM E-CENTRAL GA ROUGHLY ALONG
I-85 ACRS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS
DEFORMATION INCREASES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY
PIVOTING FROM A NE-SW TO N-S ORIENTATION THRU DAYBREAK...WITH RATHER
MODEST RAIN RATES. STILL...WITH PWATS AROUND 2" AND GOOD RAIN
EFFICIENCY...COULD SEE SOME AREAS PICK UP A QUICK 1-2" ADDITIONAL
ACCUM IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL OPT TO LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS
FOR NOW. FORTUNATELY...CAPE IS QUITE WEAK AND THE BETTER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN ON THE RIGHT/EAST SIDE OF THE TRACK. SO SVR/TORNADO THREAT
SHUD REMAIN VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. POP/WX/TEMP
TRENDS ALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD THRU MIDDAY TODAY...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE.
LATER TODAY...LLVL FLOW WILL TURN N/NWLY ACRS THE CWFA...AS ANDREA
REACHES ERN NC. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS...AGREES WELL
ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROPICAL RAIN SHIELD AND
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TN VLY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN OUR WRN ZONES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SPREADING IT ACRS THE AREA LATE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING. I TWEAKED POP TRENDS TO LINE UP WITH THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
UPPER TROFFINESS PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS. AT 850 MB...WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WHAT WE WILL LACK IS ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY...DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THERE IS
NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE IT...A CHANCE POP IS WARRANTED. SO...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BASED ON HIGHER
CAPE IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MODELS ACTUALLY RESPOND A BIT
BETTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WERE KEPT IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON AN UPPER TROF
CROSSING THE OH VALLEY MON AND MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TUE. THE GFS IS DRIER IN MID WEEK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH MINOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME AND CROSSING THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A DRIER MID WEEK THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AS T.S. ANDREA TRACKS NE ALONG THE SC LOW
COUNTRY...PERIODS OF MOD-HVY RAIN WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED
TO LIFT N/NW INTO THE AREA THRU THE MORNING. AS OF 06Z...A RAIN BAND
SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP N AND W OF THE TERMINAL...WITH MORE BREAKS IN
THE RAIN AND LOWEST CIGS TO THE S AND E. STILL EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR
TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING...THEN
IMPROVING...AS THE CENTER OF ANDREA GETS TO ERN NC AROUND 18Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ROLLING IN
FROM THE W LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. WILL GO WITH PROB30 FOR TS FOR THAT
ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE ENE...MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AROUND DAYBREAK. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO NLY THEN NWLY INTO EARLY AFTN...THEN FINALLY SWITCH TO
SW...AS A LEE TROF SETS UP ON SW SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION MID-LATE
AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF MOD RAIN IS SPREADING NEWD INTO THE UPSTATE
TAF SITES AND TOWARD HKY. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE THRU DAYBREAK. THE BAND WILL DISSIPATE
AND PIVOT TO A N-S ORIENTATION THEN SHIFT EAST DURING THE MID-LATE
MORNING HOURS. A BREAK IN SHRA EXPECTED AND IMPROVING CIGS AS LLVL
FLOW BECOMES N/NWLY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS. WILL GO WITH PROB30 FOR TS AT
ALL SITES...HIGHLIGHTING PERIOD OF HIGHEST CHCS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THRU ABOUT DAYBREAK OUT OF THE NE...THEN
GRADUALLY BACKING TO N/NW MIDDAY...THEN SW IN THE AFTN (EXCEPT AT
KAVL). VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM EARLY AFTN THRU THE END OF TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA SHUD EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z
KCLT HIGH 90% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 72% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 88% HIGH 84% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 83% MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 64% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 66% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ035>037-056-
057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ003-006>014-
019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACIANS AND BACK INTO ALABAMA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10
AM CDT ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER
ATTM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS. PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPREADING
NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS. TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS ARE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NWRN SECTION OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...FURTHER EAST THE AIRMASS IS MORE HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS NE MS.
TODAY...TROF AXIS WILL PUSH EAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MOS GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONCUR. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN AND NORTH NS...ESPECIALLY
NE MS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROF
HEADS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY NOT REACHING 80
OVER THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FANTASTIC STRETCH OF
WEATHER. CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S...MAYBE EVEN A
FEW 50S. IF THE RAIN OCCURS AS PLANNED TODAY PATCHY FOG SEEMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MS LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PERFECT
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COMFORTABLE ALBEIT A TAD WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS
EAST AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. AN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S RESULTING
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TOO FAR OUT TO GET MORE
SPECIFIC THAN THAT ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS BREAKING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SJM
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR THIS TAF PERIOD AT
MKL...MEM AND JBR. MKL MAY SEE TEMPORARY MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG/BR.
AT TUP...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL MVFR TO
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BR/FG MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR
POSSIBLE TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS AT 6-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 63 83 67 / 10 0 10 10
MKL 79 60 82 62 / 20 0 10 10
JBR 80 59 81 64 / 10 0 10 10
TUP 79 61 84 63 / 60 0 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1036 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACIANS AND BACK INTO ALABAMA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10
AM CDT ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER
ATTM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS. PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPREADING
NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS. TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS ARE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NWRN SECTION OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...FURTHER EAST THE AIRMASS IS MORE HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS NE MS.
TODAY...TROF AXIS WILL PUSH EAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MOS GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONCUR. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN AND NORTH NS...ESPECIALLY
NE MS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROF
HEADS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY NOT REACHING 80
OVER THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FANTASTIC STRETCH OF
WEATHER. CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S...MAYBE EVEN A
FEW 50S. IF THE RAIN OCCURS AS PLANNED TODAY PATCHY FOG SEEMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MS LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PERFECT
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COMFORTABLE ALBEIT A TAD WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS
EAST AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. AN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S RESULTING
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TOO FAR OUT TO GET MORE
SPECIFIC THAN THAT ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS BREAKING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SHOWERS MAINLY
AFFECTING TUP THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN AT MEM AND MKL.
NORTH WINDS AT 6-10 KTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 63 83 67 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 79 60 82 62 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 80 59 81 64 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 79 61 84 63 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
619 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER
ATTM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS. PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPREADING
NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS. TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS ARE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NWRN SECTION OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...FURTHER EAST THE AIRMASS IS MORE HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS NE MS.
TODAY...TROF AXIS WILL PUSH EAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MOS GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONCUR. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN AND NORTH NS...ESPECIALLY
NE MS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROF
HEADS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY NOT REACHING 80
OVER THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FANTASTIC STRETCH OF
WEATHER. CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S...MAYBE EVEN A
FEW 50S. IF THE RAIN OCCURS AS PLANNED TODAY PATCHY FOG SEEMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MS LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PERFECT
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COMFORTABLE ALBEIT A TAD WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS
EAST AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. AN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S RESULTING
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TOO FAR OUT TO GET MORE
SPECIFIC THAN THAT ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS BREAKING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SHOWERS MAINLY
AFFECTING TUP THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN AT MEM AND MKL.
NORTH WINDS AT 6-10 KTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 63 83 67 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 79 60 82 62 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 80 59 81 64 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 79 61 84 63 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER
ATTM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS. PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPREADING
NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS. TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS ARE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NWRN SECTION OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...FURTHER EAST THE AIRMASS IS MORE HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS NE MS.
TODAY...TROF AXIS WILL PUSH EAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MOS GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONCUR. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN AND NORTH NS...ESPECIALLY
NE MS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROF
HEADS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY NOT REACHING 80
OVER THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FANTASTIC STRETCH OF
WEATHER. CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S...MAYBE EVEN A
FEW 50S. IF THE RAIN OCCURS AS PLANNED TODAY PATCHY FOG SEEMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MS LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PERFECT
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COMFORTABLE ALBEIT A TAD WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS
EAST AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. AN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S RESULTING
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TOO FAR OUT TO GET MORE
SPECIFIC THAN THAT ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS BREAKING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHRAS MAY DEVELOP THAT WILL EFFECT KTUP. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHRAS THAT OCCUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY 16Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NNW-N WINDS OF 6-10 KTS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z.
KRM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 63 83 67 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 79 60 82 62 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 80 59 81 64 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 79 61 84 63 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
831 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER ROBUST WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 AND
1.8 INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE REGION AND
SE TX WILL LIE IN THE ASCENT REGION OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY.
300 MB ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER
THE REGION AND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS PRETTY DEEP THROUGH OUT THE
850-700 LAYER.
CONVECTION HAS WANED THIS EVENING AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FAVORED THE RAP IN THE SHORT TERM
WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA
DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE IN AND AROUND MATAGORDA BAY. THE TEXAS
TECH 3 KM WRF SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS. FEEL POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE NUDGED A BIT
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AND LOWERED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND
RAISED POPS A TAD FOR THE PRE-DAWN PERIOD OVER THE SW ZONES. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED LEAVING REMNANT MID AND HIGH
CIGS IN ITS WAKE. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OVER NIGHT. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR CIG/VSBY...ESPECIALLY OVER RAIN
DAMPENED TERMINALS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY 15Z TOMORROW MORNING. THE BIGGEST
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE ONSET OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 17Z. THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON TERMINALS IN THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z WHEN STRONG SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR
LEVELS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
HOUSTON AREA BY 22Z AND THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY 23Z. 44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ISO/SCT TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVE. PERSISTENT UPPER TROF ALONG WITH LINGERING
SHEAR AXIS...DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
KEEP THIS PATTERN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW AS WELL. PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
LESS COVERAGE BY MON AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. BUILD-
ING UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT MODELS DO
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SHORTWAVES TRYING TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA VIA
THE EASTERLY FLOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THIS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH NO MENTION OF POPS/WARM-
ER TEMPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 41
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND W TX. MAY SEE CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCEC
BUT NOT PROLONGED ENOUGH FOR A CAUTION TO BE ISSUED. OVERALL EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK WITH GENERALLY LOW SEAS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 91 73 93 74 / 10 30 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 92 74 93 75 / 10 40 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 87 79 89 80 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
355 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...
...THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INTO A COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT...ENTERING WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE
NORTH EDWARDS PLATEAU AROUND 4 AM. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THIS SCENARIO
WHILE THE NAM DISSIPATES ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF THE AREA. WILL SIDE
WITH THE HRRR AND GFS AS CONVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN ITSELF GIVEN THE
SHORT WAVE AND A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL JET THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING. WENT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTH EDWARDS PLATEAU. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER 90S.
.LONG TERM...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS
KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...WEAKENING OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BIG COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS TEXAS NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A HOT AND DRY FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 63 89 72 93 74 / 20 20 10 5 5
SAN ANGELO 62 92 72 96 74 / 30 20 5 5 5
JUNCTION 62 91 70 93 73 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1144 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CONCERN...POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
NORTH WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
MVFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A WESTERLY MOVEMENT TO IT. HOWEVER...THE WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIVE
THESE CIGS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
KACT BUT COULD COME CLOSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
ALSO BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND 15-20 KT WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AROUND THE DFW
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN
09-13Z...BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. CHANCES FOR FOG CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AT KACT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 4SM FROM 09-13Z.
82/JLD
&&
.UPDATE...
A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL OF OUR NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING AND ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
CONTINUED TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY GOING CALM ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING.
THE QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF ANY PATCHY FOG CAN DEVELOP IN WAKE
OF THE STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED. NAM12 BUFFER AND RUC OPS40 SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 1-2 DEGREE TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR SUBSTANTIAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE NORTH WINDS AND THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE NORTH. WE WILL ABSTAIN FROM INSERTING PATCHY FOG INTO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MONITORING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
AN MCV ROTATES TOWARDS EAST TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
EAST BY 6 PM. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT ALL PRECIP WILL EXIT NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT BEHIND
THE MCV AND DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE
CLEARING SKIES...DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT FOR EARLY JUNE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTH. AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FROM NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA.
MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER NORTH TEXAS WEATHER IS IN
STORE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
STATE. EXPECT VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 IN SOME WESTERN ZONES AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 85 64 91 71 / 5 5 5 5 10
WACO, TX 63 87 63 90 71 / 5 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 59 81 61 86 66 / 5 5 5 5 10
DENTON, TX 59 85 60 90 69 / 5 5 5 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 59 82 60 88 67 / 5 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 64 85 65 90 72 / 5 5 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 61 83 61 88 68 / 5 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 64 84 63 88 69 / 5 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 63 86 64 89 70 / 10 10 10 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 59 85 64 89 68 / 5 5 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
924 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINED UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN
IOWA OUT AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEY ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 600MB FRONTOGENESIS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK
500MB VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
MADISON THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
THAT THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING.
THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER AREA
OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS. THESE WOULD BE HIGH
BASED AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP POSSIBILITIES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND THEN SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS IOWA. ASIDE FROM SOME SPRINKLES...
SOUTHEAST WI MAY NOT SEE SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 7PM SUNDAY EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW WEAK CAPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL SEEMS FINE. HIGHS SHOULD CREEP INTO
THE LOWER 70S INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THAT 925MB TEMPS WILL BE
RISING TO AROUND 17C...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DELAY THEIR ARRIVAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL BAND OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION
THAT COULD REACH MADISON AND FOND DU LAC BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN THE MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS...WILL KEEP CEILINGS/VSBYS AT VFR LEVELS FOR NOW.
KMSN WILL BE A SITE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THAT AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
TONIGHT. BY 12Z SUNDAY WE ARE ONLY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE LLJ
AND HIGH VALUES OF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARE JUST GETTING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BAND OF
PRECIP FORMING WITH THE INITIAL WAVE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
ENTERS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AROUND 6Z. CONCURRENT WITH THE INITIAL
SURGE OF MOISTURE IS THE INITIAL WAVE OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
WAA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH THAT INITIAL BAND WOULD BE TO THE
WEST...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE PLANNED FOR LOW TEMPS. 925 MB TEMPS AND A MODERATE
INVERSION WOULD YIELD AROUND 50 IN THE NORTHEAST AND 925 MB TEMPS
AND A WEAK INVERSION WOULD YIELD AROUND 57 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER ON PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH. PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP OCCURRENCE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
MODELS SUGGESTING THE PRECIP WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT IN THE
EAST AND NE CWA DUE TO ABSENCE OF FORCING AND A DRIER FEED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
PRECIP CHANCES GET A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE THIS PERIOD AS THE
OVERALL SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL CARRY THE HEAVY POPS INTO THE EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY. THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD END UP GETTING MORE DRY AIR FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...THUS RECEIVING MUCH LESS RAINFALL. TOO EARLY TO GET
DEFINITIVE ON THAT. WE LOSE THE CAPE VALUES DURING THE
EVENING...SO THUNDER MENTION DROPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL BUMP TEMPS
A NOTCH MONDAY GIVEN 925MB TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS IT QUIET THIS PERIOD. A LITTLE SUNSHINE ON
TUE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH 80 IN A FEW SPOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TAKE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO INDIANA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...DELAYING THE RAIN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC WARM FRONT
STAYS SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...WITH THE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
LLJ WILL BE PUSHING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE FRONT. THE
GFS...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAIN IN TRAINING ACTIVITY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH QUIET AND WARM WEATHER ON TAP.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AMPLIFYING
MORE...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ON PRECIP ARRIVAL FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER STILL CONCERNED INITIAL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIP AFTER 6Z. FOR THE
MOST PART...MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER ON PRECIP ADVANCEMENT WITH
PLAINS LOW. BAND OF SHRA MAY DEVELOP WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE DRIER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION WILL KEEP CEILINGS/VSBYS AT VFR LEVELS FOR NOW. KMSN WILL
BE A SITE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THAT AREA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TONIGHT...BROOKS
SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
644 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST WI.
THE NORTHEAST WI SHORTWAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING NORTHEAST OF I-94. MORE SHOWERS
EXIST OVER WESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST MN AND BACK INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND INCREASING 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12Z RAOB
DATA FROM GGW AND UNR SHOWED 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 40-60 METERS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE RANGES FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PER GOES DERIVED IMAGERY...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH IS 100-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALTOSTRATUS
HAS SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AIDED TOO BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN A RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THAT NORTHEAST
WI SHORTWAVE.
MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND WITH THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SLOW IT DOWN AND DIG SOUTHEAST MORE. COMPARE AT 12Z
SUNDAY WHERE THE 07.12Z NAM DEPICTED A FORMING UPPER LOW NEAR
MONTEVIDEO MN...AND NOW THE 08.12Z NAM IS NEAR SIOUX CITY IA. THE
08.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR OMAHA. THIS
HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST. WITH THE
GENERAL SLOW DOWN OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOSED
OFF UPPER LOW THAT FORMS...HAVE DELAYED THE SPREAD EASTWARD OF THE
SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SLOW DOWN RESULTS IN INSTABILITY TAKING
LONGER TO GET NORTH INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE PULLED MOST OF THE
THUNDER CHANCES FOR TONIGHT EXCEPT IN NORTHEAST IA LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
INTERESTINGLY...THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 SEPARATE SHOWER BANDS FOR
TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS A WARM ADVECTION BAND...SEEN ON THE 310 K
SURFACE AND OBSERVED RIGHT NOW ON RADAR BETWEEN ROCHESTER AND
CHARLES CITY. THIS BAND IS HIGHER BASED AND HAVING TO CONTEND WITH
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR...PRECLUDING ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAP/HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT OF THIS BAND
SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. TRIED TO PLAY THIS BAND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH SOME DRYING INDICATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. THE NEXT
SHOWER BAND WOULD BE THE TRUE WARM CONVEYOR BELT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FORMING UPPER LOW. THIS REALLY STARTS TO GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
FOR SUNDAY...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL SLIDE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING...THEN GET STUCK AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS INTO
CENTRAL IA. IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE SOME FORM OF THE BELT
WEAKENING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS THE FORCING FOCUS
SHIFTS UP TOWARDS CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...BEING IN AGEOSTROPHIC
CURVATURE DIVERGENCE AT 500MB ...PLUS DAYTIME HEATING AND MINIMAL
CAPPING SHOULD YIELD PERSISTENT SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY AS THE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPES UPWARDS
OF 500 TO AT MOST 1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY...AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY 25 KT OR LESS...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANZIED SEVERE STORMS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES...IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR...WOULD STAY WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE PROGGED SURFACE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW WHILE A RIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS AND NAM WANT TO PUSH THE LOW EAST
INTO INDIANA WHILE THE GEM/EC LINGER IT FARTHER WEST WITH OUR AREA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. EITHER WAY...APPEARS PR THE BUFKIT DATA
THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT GIVEN STEEP
LOWER-LEVEL LAPSE RATE. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WHILE THE NAM/GEM ARE BOTH DRY GIVEN
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER THE CUMULUS.
WILL TAKE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AT THIS TIME WHICH INCLUDES A
20-40 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...TAPERING INTO
THE 20-30 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE.
BRIEF RESPITE FROM RAIN EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH FURTHER RIDGE-BUILDING TAKING PLACE INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE
BRIEF INDEED AS MODELS SHOWING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/IA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PUSHES A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN IA THROUGH NORTHERN IL WITH MODERATE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IMPINGING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS///SOUTH OF I-90//. THIS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NUDGE UPWARD INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. IF THIS
COMES TO FRUITION...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS SOUTH OF I-90. LATEST ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TAPERING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE CONUS WITH
WARMING ACROSS OUR AREA. DOESNT APPEAR TO BE COMPLETELY RAIN-FREE AT
THIS POINT AS A COUPLE WEAK WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR PERIODIC
SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COULD SEE THIS PERIOD
BECOMING DRY WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS GIVEN STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL CAP. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A MUCH-NEEDED DRYING
OUT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS CEILINGS DECREASE NEXT 12 HOURS.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BECOME
CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THIS PROCESS AND SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT MAKING
FOR RETURN TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL CREATE SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...BUT AS LOW CREEPS CLOSER...MORE SATURATION
TO TAKE PLACE. MAIN AREA OF FORCING AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ON
SUNDAY WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO OFF AND ON SHOWERS WITH THREAT OF IFR
DEVELOPING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
322 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
STRONG SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND LARAMIE COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAIN HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS SO FAR. LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH
AROUND 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. WITH THESE TYPE OF VALUES...CONCERN
WILL STILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE
HAIL THREAT IS QUITE SMALL. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING EASTWARD OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
00-12Z...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT IN THAT REGION. THIS IS WHERE THE
STRONGEST ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE AS THE SYSTEM DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
SFC TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH
PRESSURE RISES AND A FROPA. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH NORTHWESTERLY 700MB
WINDS AROUND 30-35 KT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WHILE IT WILL BE
A BREEZY DAY...BELIEVE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST 850-700MB WINDS ARE OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PANHANDLE
FOR SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING LIGHT
QPF IN THE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE REAL WARM-UP
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. A RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS IT CROSSES THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE LARAMIE
RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE.
A CLOSED LOW ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OPENS UP WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH TUESDAY AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR
CONVECTION WILL SET UP FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX AS
THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS.
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WEST OF THE
GREAT BASIN...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEFLECT ANY
SHORTWAVES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST
ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS SHOW A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM RAWLINS TO CHADRON.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
RISING SUNDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 16C. HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD MONDAY...700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 19C...WHICH EQUATES TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH THE
MERCURY INTO THE 80S AND 90S. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
EQUALED OR EXCEEDED IN SOME AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRIM HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL REMAIN
WARM. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10 DEGREES...AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND THEN 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE
10-15 PERCENT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL ALSO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25-30 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FUELS ARE STILL GREEN AND DO NOT SUPPORT LARGE FIRE GROWTH...THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1150 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
SNOWY RANGE AND SOUTHERN ALBANY COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS ANYWHERE FROM 200-500 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH LITTLE CIN. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES A LARGER AREA OF
SHOWERS SPREADING FROM CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT.
THIS IS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WYOMING EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD EXIT
THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL BE SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SPRINKLES AND WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE STRONGER THAN THAT OF THURSDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM.
MODELS NOW ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY AS
OF THOSE OF TODAY. HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SUNDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT ENCROACHES ON
US. MID LEVELS LOOK TOO WARM PROVIDING CAPPING INVERSION AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...CIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LIMITED LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
MONDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AND WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 18C AND BONE DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS...NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TAP AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE...PLEASE SEE CLIMATE
SECTION.
TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY UPCOMING AS A WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD INDUCING
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AIDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT LARAMIE...CHEYENNE...ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND
SIDNEY...PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION. MAY BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO
CHADRON LINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...DRYING OUT AGAIN AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS DRY OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DUE TO UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
THURSDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND 700
MB TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 18C...ALONG WITH DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS
AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD AND BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE GREENUP AND NON CRITICAL FUEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
THE CWA AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BETWEEN 10 AND
15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...WEILAND
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
520 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. LONGWAVE RIDGING
STILL IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
IN PARTIAL RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES...SEEING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS REBOUND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
COAST INCLUDING OVER OUR HEADS. THIS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HOLD STEADY OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WINS THE BATTLE AND SUPPRESSES THE
RIDGE BACK TO THE EAST. WV IMAGERY SHOWS NO LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER OUR REGION...AND A LOOK AT THE
09/00Z KTBW SOUNDING REVEALS THAT THE MOISTURE IS THROUGH THE EXTENT
OF THE COLUMN. THE MEASURED PW VALUE OFF THIS SOUNDING PROFILE WAS
OVER 2".
AT THE SURFACE...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD HOLD IN POSITION THROUGH TODAY. THIS
POSITION IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN WAS THOUGH WITH SOME PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND RESULTS IN SOME MINOR IMPACTS/CHANGES TO THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN AL WITHIN THE ZONE OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OUR LOCAL AREA IS FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO ESCAPE THIS SUPPORT FOR NOW...AND SEEING A DRY EARLY MORNING
FORECAST AREA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TODAY...
A GENERALLY DRY...WARM AND MUGGY MORNING FOR THE REGION. A MIX OF
SUN AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...BUT ENOUGH SUN TO QUICKLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS CERTAINLY MOIST AND NOT
REALLY THAT HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION...SO DO EXPECT DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ENDED UP A BIT FURTHER
NORTH FOR TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. THIS POSITION RESULTS IN A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ESE GRADIENT FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FLOW IS BORDERLINE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS...OR AT LEAST HOLD BACK THE STRENGTH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA-BREEZE FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. WITH A WEAKER
SEA-BREEZE THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAKER AS WELL.
SO...WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND FOR I-4 SOUTHWARD...THE
WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE SUGGEST DROPPING THUNDER CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY 60%+ RANGE
DOWN TO THE CHANCE 45-55% RANGE. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST CITRUS/LEVY WHERE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WILL BE LESS THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...
THUNDER CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO THE COAST...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WEAKENING OR MOVING
OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY MIDNIGHT. THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT FOR OUR LAND ZONES SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AREAS THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATER DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL RUN THE RISK OF SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY...
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SETTLING BACK SOUTH
TO AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR. A WEAKER RESULTING GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW
WELL DEFINED SEA-BREEZE FORMATION FOR OUR ENTIRE COAST. GRADIENT
FLOW WITH THIS POSITION WILL FAVOR MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY...AND A SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT WILL ACCELERATE THE BOUNDARY
INLAND FOR MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST. THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE SUGGEST PLENTY OF SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
TAMPA...THUNDER CHANCES WILL TEND TO HAPPEN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA-BREEZE THEN TAKING BETTER RAIN CHANCES INLAND WITH
TIME. SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...THE OPPOSING SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL KEEP
THUNDER CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
TUESDAY...
A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH A
DRY START GIVING WAY TO A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.
THE QUESTIONABLE AREA OF THE REGION IS UP OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE
COAST. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED BY GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO BE PASSING
BY DURING THE DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS AXIS
PASSING...WE MAY SEE SOME WEAK SUPPRESSION/NVA OVERSPREAD OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD THIS BECOME MORE CERTAIN
WITH FUTURE GUIDANCE RUNS...THEN THE 30-40% RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF
PASCO COUNTY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE WARM AS 850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THOSE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST WHICH DO NOT SEE
CONVECTION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH
DOWN THE EAST U.S. INTO FL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WHILE
THE TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY SAT. AT
THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE...REACHING WEST FROM THE
ATLANTIC...MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTHERN FL THROUGH THU. THEN ON FRI BOTH
FEATURES BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTH...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE NATION...WITH THE TROUGH REACHING CENTRAL
FL SAT AS THE RIDGE SLIPS SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD ALONG WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE...FORECAST PWAT VALUES RUN
IN THE 1.4 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY INLAND...THANKS TO THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AREA
PRODUCING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OR SO.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA. AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME WELL
DEFINED ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR/LCL IFR VSBY OR CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE ESPECIALLY
INLAND AND IN THE SOUTH. THEN PREVAILING VFR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
WHEN SCT TSRA RESULT IN SOME MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SE DURING THE MORNING
THEN SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SUMMER-LIKE FEEL AND PATTERN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT. DEFINED SEA-BREEZES WILL BEGIN ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT
AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
STATE WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER PEAK COVERAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS PUSHED SOME
LOCAL RIVERS TO NEAR OR JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOTH THE MANATEE RIVER AT MYAKKA HEAD AND THE HORSE CREEK NEAR
ARCADIA WILL BRIEFLY BE AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR A TIME TODAY...AND
THEN SLOWLY RECEDE. THE MANATEE RIVER AT RYE BRIDGE IS CURRENTLY AT
ACTION STAGE...BUT APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED AND IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW ACTION STAGE THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 75 91 76 / 50 30 50 20
FMY 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 50 20
GIF 91 73 93 73 / 50 30 50 20
SRQ 89 73 88 74 / 50 30 50 20
BKV 89 71 91 71 / 50 30 40 20
SPG 88 76 90 77 / 50 30 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX/HYDROLOGY...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
357 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS HAS REPOSITIONED ITSELF OVER N FL...RESULTING IN A
SERLY H100-H70 FLOW REGIME ACRS CENTRAL FL. H85-H50 STEERING FLOW
REMAINS SWRLY BUT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN IN RECENT DAYS. LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LCL AIRMASS WITH A SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SUPPLY
FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH A BAND OF 2.0"-2.2" PWAT EXTENDING
FROM WRN CUBA NEWD TOWARD BERMUDA...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S.
BIGGEST HINDRANCE TO SHRA/TSRA DVLPMNT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LACK OF
DYNAMIC LIFT. HERE...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE S FL PENINSULA UNDER A
DEARTH OF MID LVL VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN WEAK SRLY FLOW. GFS PICKS UP
ON THIS BY PLACING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA UNDER AN H70-H50
LYR THAT HAS ALMOST NO VORTICITY THRU 12Z MON. RAP ALSO SHOWS
SINKING MID LVL OMEGA VALUES ADVECTING TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA AND
AN UPR LYR THAT IS LARGELY NEUTRAL OR WEAKLY CONVERGENT.
WITH SUCH LOW DYNAMIC POTENTIAL...WILL NEED SEA BREEZES AND SFC
HEATING TO SUPPLY THE SOURCE OF LIFT. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER N
FL...THE S/SERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...BUT THE FLOW IS TOO WEAK FOR CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR BEFORE
LATE AFTN. GOOD SFC HEATING POTENTIAL AS MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT...DEBRIS OVER THE ERN GOMEX IS EMBEDDED
IN DEEP SRLY FLOW THAT WILL CARRY ITS BULK OVER THE WRN PENINSULA.
THE SRLY STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS NRN INTERIOR WILL BE THE FOCUS
POINT. GIVEN THE OVERALL TORPID NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...WILL CAP
PRECIP CHANCES AT 40PCT ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...DECREASING
TO 20PCT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
NO BIG SURPRISES IN MAX/MIN TEMPS. SE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS
IN THE M80S...WARMING TO ARND 90F OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE L/M70S.
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE PREDICATED ON POSITIONING
AND STRENGTH OF THE WRN ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. FEATURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY THEN BECOME
SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEAKENED BY A LATE WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH TO N FL.
RATHER WEAK GRADIENT WINDS ASCD WITH RIDGE INVOF CENTRAL FL WL
LEAD TO BOUNDARY DRIVEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MON-WED WITH NONE
EXPECTED TO BECOME TERRIBLY STRONG. PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES ALONG WITH SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARIES WL PLACE HIGHER
POP INLAND AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 EACH AFTERNOON AND NO AREAS WL
BE EXCEPTED FROM THUNDER POTENTIAL ALTOGETHER.
PAST MIDWEEK THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME SUPPRESSED OVER S FL BY A
ROBUST UPR TROUGH ALONG THE ERN/SE SEABOARD. INCREASING SW FLOW WL
FAVOR THE EAST PENINSULA FOR LATE DAY PCPN. SOME HINTINGS OF A DRY
SLOT MAY REDUCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE BUT HAVE KEPT IN LOW END SCT
COVERAGE FOR PCPN ATTM INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 08/16Z...VFR ALL SITES...CIGS AOA FL120. BTWN 09/16Z-09/19Z...
SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS DVLPG NW OF KVRB-KOBE...ISOLD MVFR
SHRAS/IFR TSRAS SE OF KVRB-KOBE...PRECIP MVG N/NW 10-15KTS.
SHRAS/TSRAS CONTG THRU 10/02Z BUT DIMINISHING AFT 09/23Z. BCMG VFR
ALL SITES BY 10/02Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE OVER N FL WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SERLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND
3-4FT OFFSHORE. SE WIND COMPONENT WILL PLACE THE WATERS S OF
SEBASTIAN INLET IN THE SHADOW OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...RESULTING
IN CHOPPY WIND WAVES WITH DOMINANT PDS ARND 5SEC. N OF THE
INLET... DOMINANT PDS 8-9SEC. ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS.
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...PROXIMITY OF THE ATLC RIDGE WILL KEEP
FAVORABLE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE LOCAL
WATERS. INCREASING OFFSHORE AND FETCH LIMITED FLOW DEVELOPING
AROUND THU AND PERSISTING INTO SAT WL KEEP SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT WITH
HIGHEST SEAS WELL OFFSHORE TO END THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 74 88 73 / 30 20 40 20
MCO 90 73 91 73 / 40 20 40 20
MLB 87 75 88 75 / 30 20 30 20
VRB 86 76 87 73 / 20 20 30 20
LEE 89 74 92 75 / 40 30 40 30
SFB 90 74 92 74 / 40 20 40 20
ORL 90 74 92 75 / 40 20 40 20
FPR 85 76 87 73 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
115 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE NOW
MOVED INLAND OF PBI...AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL TERMINALS. THUS...NO MENTION IN TAFS. POP AROUND 20-30
PERCENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.
WINDS EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. GULF BREEZE INTRUSION IS LIKELY AT
KAPF BY AFTERNOON...CHANGING WINDS TO SSE AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS NE PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS VICINITY
AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH JUST THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OVERNIGHT. HRRR DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY EAST COAST AND GIVEN LATEST TRENDS
UPSTREAM, HAVE KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN AREAS.
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO FLORIDA. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO FEATURES ARE ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
EASTERN GULF. IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE COASTAL AREAS TO THE
INTERIOR AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRIGGER OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
WESTERN METRO AREAS. OVERALL, THE REASONING IS THAT THE STRONGEST
RAINFALL WILL STAY OVER THE INTERIOR.
FOR SUNDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF
FLORIDA AND INDUCE A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND, BUT WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD STILL REACH THE WESTERN METRO AREAS. INTERESTING TO MENTION
IS THAT PART OF THE SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS MADE A
NORTHWARD TURN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN US AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND ANDREA. THIS HAS BEEN
SHOWN BY A VERY LIGHT WHITISH APPEARANCE OF THE SKY YESTERDAY AND
TODAY. THE NAVY MODEL CAPTURED THIS VERY WELL. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE EAST
RATHER THAN SOUTHERLY BELOW 700 MB.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE INTERIOR DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES. FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US, AMPLIFYING THE FLOW AND
ALLOWING FOR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, POSSIBLY AS A CUT-OFF LOW, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT WELL THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE,
SHOWING A SHIFT FROM EASTERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS A COLD POOL IN THE
500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C, WHICH IS 2-3C BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
THEREFORE, INCLUDED HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH SPEEDS BELOW 15
KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO
BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL PROBABLY RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO
50 PERCENT IN THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. NO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 78 88 78 / 30 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 79 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 88 76 89 78 / 30 20 20 10
NAPLES 88 74 91 73 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
436 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE CWA BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AREA IS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA AND
WILL MAKE FOR A RAIN FILLED SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING EXPANDING THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
BY AFTERNOON EXPECT DEVELOPMENT ALSO ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH EXCEPT FOR BEING SLIGHTLY SLOW INITIALLY
ON THE POSITIONING OF THE SHOWERS...APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE
SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL HELP TO PLAY A ROLE IN
SUPPRESSING SEVERE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH POPS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST IS FOR BETTER
CHANCES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL LIKELY POPS IN FOR
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE CWA AND WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A DRY SLOT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY SO APPEARS MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FOR THE MOST PART AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSELY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING.
11
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA PROVIDING FOR AN ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM RISK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE POPS HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN THE DAYTIME...CERTAINLY AN ODDITY
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FIRST SHORTWAVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER TRANSITIONING TO JUST MID
RANGE SCATTERED FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN LATE TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH. GFS SHOWS POTENT DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ON THU
WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH AND ALLOWS A WEAK
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SUPPORT AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WILL RESULT IN HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THU EVENING.
AS FRONT CLEARS...EVEN DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER. WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE BUT POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END
CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY HOVER
AROUND SOUTH. INDICATIONS ARE THEY WILL MOSTLY REMAIN JUST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF SOUTH HOWEVER THERE IS A FEW HOURS MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON IT COULD GO TO THE WEST SIDE. OTHER MAIN
CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF THE TSRA AND SHRA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WILL LIKELY START BY MID MORNING BUT BETTER CHANCES ARE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HARD TO NARROW DOWN TIMING...BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP DUE TO INABILITY TO NARROW DOWN THE
TIMING.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 68 85 67 / 50 50 40 40
ATLANTA 82 67 84 68 / 60 50 50 50
BLAIRSVILLE 78 64 80 62 / 50 60 60 50
CARTERSVILLE 83 68 85 67 / 60 60 60 50
COLUMBUS 84 70 88 70 / 70 50 40 40
GAINESVILLE 82 67 82 67 / 50 50 50 50
MACON 85 69 87 69 / 60 50 40 30
ROME 84 68 84 66 / 60 60 60 50
PEACHTREE CITY 82 68 85 68 / 60 50 50 50
VIDALIA 87 72 87 72 / 50 40 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A NORTHWEST FLOW JET STREAKED WAS IMPINGING ON WESTERN KANSAS
MID-AFTERNOON. PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WAS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR LOOP IN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK FROM
NEAR CHEYENNE, WY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA. THERE WAS
AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
INTRUSION. THIS PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF ACCAS AND ATTENDANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY MOIST WITH EARLY AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE MID-50S DEGF. THE FRONT AT 18Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR JOHNSON TO
SCOTT CITY TO HILL CITY...WITH A CONTINUED PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. AS
OF 18Z...THE ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE AT 18Z, 0-6KM
AGL BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH NEARLY 90-DEGREE
VEERING IN THE 850-500MB LAYER SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONVECTIVE MODE, DURATION, SEVERITY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE
"TONIGHT" PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. JUST ABOUT ALL SHORT-TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
20Z ALONG THE FRONT. THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL COHERENT CELLS
(PERHAPS SUPERCELLS) AS THE INITIAL MODE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CONCERN FOR HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE IN THE STRONGEST STORM STILL
LOOKS JUSTIFIED. ONCE AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IS GENERATED...THE
GROWTH UPSCALE WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION IN SEVERE THREAT FROM ONE
OF LARGE HAIL TO ONE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WHEN AND WHERE
EXACTLY THIS WILL TRANSITION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT BY 00Z THE
GENERAL THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE
QUASI-LINEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
PORTION OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA (ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183).
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY LAST A BIT LONGER
WITH SLIGHTLY A BIT MORE CAPPING TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM GROWING
UPSCALE TOO QUICKLY. NO CHANGE WAS REQUIRED IN THE POP/WX GRIDS
WITH 60-70 POPS STILL QUITE REASONABLE. STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE DDC FORECAST AREA (EAST AND SOUTH OF BARBER,
COMANCHE, PRATT COUNTIES) DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY:
DURING LATE NIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
VEER SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TO LOWER 60S ALONG INTERSTATE 70. 500 HPA RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 34
DEG C. HAVE USED ECMWF FOR TEMP GUIDANCE AND NUDGED TEMPS DOWN AS THIS
MODEL TYPICALLY OVERDOES A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE NEAR THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY:
A LEE INDUCED LOW/TROF WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THE 850 HPA WARM PLUME WILL ADVECT FARTHER EAST.
VALUES IN THE 32-36 DEG C RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SUPPORTS MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES (OBVIOUSLY MUCH HIGHER THAN 850 HPA)
IN THE LOW 100S. AGAIN, USED THE ECMWF AS A BASIS AND THE NUDGED DOWN
TO REDUCE THE IMPACTS FROM THE MODEL GENERATED SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG 591 DM RIDGE CONTINUES
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. LASTLY,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
WEAK FRONT MAKE TRAVERSE THE REGION WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT, SO NORTHERN ZONES MAY "COOL OFF" TO THE 90S. THURSDAYS
ONWARDS, THE 850 HPA WARM PLUME WILL REDEVELOP AND ADVECT EASTWARDS
ON FRIDAY. THIS SUPPORTS HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S. MINIMUMS
WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 4 MILES BY 10-12Z DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS A RESULT OF HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW DEWPOINTS, AND BREEZY/WINDY
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. RH`S COULD STILL BE AOB 15 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, BUT WINDS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 103 71 105 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 65 104 71 105 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 69 102 71 105 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 67 103 71 105 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 61 96 71 101 / 0 0 0 10
P28 67 97 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN WY AND WESTERN NE WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE AND KS TONIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL NE...SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KS. ONLY ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
KS AHEAD OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE RESULTING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED
SHOWERS HAVE KEPT THE AIRMASS MORE STABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 22Z AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND IN THE AREA OF STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING H5 TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE ONLY QUESTION IS TO THE DEGREE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF SFC BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS AS IF THE THREAT FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SPC
EMC RAP MODEL SHOWS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS...SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PNHDL. IF
THERE IS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE ELEVATED SHOWERS...THEN PERHAPS
SBCAPES MAY INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT
ALONG THE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ATTM...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS MAY BE GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AS THE H5
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO IA AND EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH MO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR EAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
IA WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES MAY
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW LOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
GARGAN
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEEKEND`S PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND
DEVELOPING INTO A BROAD RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS BROAD RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE...MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
SET UP AS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OR SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS SKIMMING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE DEPENDENT UPON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DIP FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD THOUGH IS WITH THE RISING
TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MIXING FROM 800-850MB DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
UPWARDS OF 21C-28C. ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AIDS IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION WITH 25C-28C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ALSO REMAINING QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SCT TSRA SHOULD BE NEAR KTOP AND KFOE AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
BUT BE EXITING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IFR VISIBILTIES SEEM LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20KT FOR MUCH OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHRTWV RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE OF A
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NCENTRAL PLAINS DOWNWIND OF
AN UPR RDG OVER THE WRN CONUS. WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG DOMINATING THE
GREAT LKS UNDER THE UPR RDG/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...THERE IS QUIET
OVERNGT WX OVER THE CWA WITH MOCLR SKIES. HI CLDS ON THE NE FLANK OF
THE SFC LO OVER NW IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SHRTWV ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS AS
FAR NE AS SE MN/FAR SW WI WHERE H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS MAXIMIZED.
AXIS OF MORE WDSPRD RA CORRESPONDS WELL TO AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SHOWN
BY THE NAM.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS.
TDAY...MOST OF THE RECENT NUMERICAL RUNS SHOW SHRTWV NOW IN THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 00Z MON. AS A RESULT...SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT LKS...WITH CONTINUED 12HR H5 HGT RISES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA FARTHER NE OF THE SHRTWV. GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SUPPORTING AREA
OF SHRA IN SE MN SPREADING SLOWLY TO THE N AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
FAR WRN CWA THIS AFTN. SO OPTED TO RETAIN THE GOING FLAVOR OF THE
GOING FCST SHOWING POPS ARRIVING OVER THE W IN THE AFTN. BUT DID
TRIM BACK ON EWD EXTENSION OF THESE POPS TOWARD THE H5 HGT RISES AND
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ZERO QPF OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. ALSO
TENDED TO RAISE FCST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR E
WHERE THERE WL BE MORE SUNSHINE. MIXING TO H8 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING AOA 75 AT ERY. MORE CLD COVER SHOULD RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY OVER THE W.
TNGT...CLOSED LO OVER IOWA IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E INTO ILLINOIS...SO
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY FORCING FOR PCPN OVER
UPR MI WITH UPR RDG AXIS PERSISTING INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI ON THE
NRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO
RIDE EWD IN THE FAST WLY FLOW ALF BTWN THE WRN RDG AND A CLOSED LO
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU NRN
MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO OVERNGT...WITH SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR IMPACTING MAINLY THE NW CWA TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. SO
MAINTAINED HIER POPS IN THIS AREA BUT TRIMMED BACK PCPN CHCS OVER
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA DUE TO ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING UNDER
MORE PERSISTENT UPR RDG.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN EARLY THIS WEEK FEATURES TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH SHALLOW RIDGES DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK MAIN TROUGHING WILL BE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT CONUS AND OVER WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST CONUS.
TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL THE WEATHER THIS WEEK TAKES A BREAK FROM THE COOL AND ACTIVE
WEATHER SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK. OVERALL...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHORES...TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL IF NOT ABOVE.
OTHER THAN SMALL/ISOLD CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...EXPECT A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF UPR MICHIGAN.
SPLIT PATTERN IN LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT BEGAN TO EMERGE 24 HOURS
AGO IS NOW PRESENT IN UPSTREAM WV LOOP AND MODELS. AT DAYBREAK
MONDAY ONE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS IL/IN WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
IN BTWN WILL BE LIFTING OVER FAR NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR DESTINED TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN FORCING FM A QG
STANDPOINT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR BUT THERE STILL IS
HINT THAT TAIL OF THE IN BTWN WAVE MAY GRAZE UPR MICHIGAN DURING
PEAK HEATING OF AFTN. EXTENT OF HEATING IS QUESTIONABLE AS THERE
MAY BE FAIR AMOUNT OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS IN VCNTY ENHANCED BY SSE
SFC FLOW ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF GREAT LAKES. WHERE THERE IS
LESS CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS WENT FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 AND EVEN INTO
LOWER 70S. OTHERWISE...UPR 60S SHOULD DO. THE WAVE AND SUBTLE
SFC-H85 CONVERGENCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED OVR CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
A LULL EXPECTED...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT...MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE SHORTWAVE COULD BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...JUST HARD TO
TELL RIGHT NOW. ATTN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL BE ON SHORTWAVE IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT EMERGING OUT OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. ECMWF/GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE
OVR CNTRL LK SUPERIOR AND CNTRL CWA BY 18Z. SHARP H7 DRYING NOTED IN
WAKE OF THE WAVE. STARTING TO THINK THAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR THEY
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING WEST AND MAINLY ONLY INTO EARLY-MID
AFTN CNTRL AND EAST. 925-850MB WINDS MORE WESTERLY WITH LOCALIZED
LAKE BREEZES MAY HELP ENHANCE POP-UP SHRA POTENTIAL IN THE EAST.
THOUGH GFS AND NAM SFC DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT LOWER 60S
ARE LIKELY WAY OVERDONE...ECMWF SHOWS MORE REASONABLE DWPNTS IN
THE 40S AND STILL HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THAT AREA DUE TO
THE SHORTWAVE. SLIGHT CHANCES COVER SITUATION WELL BOTH IN TERMS
OF EXPECTED COVERAGE AND ACTUAL CHANCE OF IT OCCURRING AT ALL. QUITE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING MAY END UP DRY ALL AREAS DUE TO THE DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE WAVE. COOLEST TEMPS ON TUESDAY OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH MORE PREVALENT LAKE MODIFIED REGIME. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE LAKE COOLING.
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STAY WELL TO SOUTH OF
UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN...ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT AND
IN THE VCNTY OF H85 WARM FRONT. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA OR
SPRINKLES ON EDGE OF HIGHER H7 DWPNT...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE
FAR SOUTH CWA. DRY ELSEHWERE WITH READINGS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
BUT STAYING IN THE 60S OVER THE NORTH DUE TO STRONGER LAKE BREEZE
SINCE GRADIENT FLOW IS ALREADY LIGHT NORTHERLY. MID CLOUDS AND ANY
LGT SHRA WILL BE FINISHED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ENTIRE SYSTEM DIPS
FARTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM UPR MICHIGAN.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLEST TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR. INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION WILL BE IN THE 70S. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
FOR FRIDAY WITH LGT SOUTH RETURN FLOW. STILL ENOUGH OF ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO KEEP IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORES COOLER. TEMPS INLAND
SHOULD MAKE RUN WELL INTO THE 70S WITH GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DUE TO
DEPARTING RIDGE. POSSIBLE WARMEST SPOTS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR MAY
CRACK 80 DEGREES.
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVES EAST OUT OF ROCKIES.
USED CONSENSUS POPS AT THIS POINT. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS A
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...GENERALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TODAY. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. INCLUDED SOME VCSH AT
KIWD AS THE FAR WRN CWA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCREASE TO E UP TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON AS A LO PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BRINGS A SHARPER PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOCALLY
HIER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W...WHERE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. WEAK
HI PRES WILL RETURN AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR TUE THRU
THU. WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NRN LAKE MI INTO NRN LWR MI. AREA OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI TODAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR W AND CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTN (LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SBCAPE OF 100-200J/KG). TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS DIGGING
INTO THE WRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A W COAST RIDGE. THIS TROF WILL
BRING THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUN.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLD SHRA OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...FCST AREA
TONIGHT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO THE E
OF THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING THRU THE PLAINS. WITH RIDGE PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A TREND TO
MCLEAR SKIES. LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES
GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEGREE TO WHICH JET STREAK IS CAUSING SHORTWAVE TO DIG
INTO THE WRN PLAINS CURRENTLY...MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN WILL LIKELY END UP SW OF HERE SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
EASTERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY TO HAVE A
MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE IN THE WEATHER HERE. MODELS THAT WERE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN RECENT RUNS WITH PCPN DRIVING INTO UPPER MI SUN HAVE
ALL BACKED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN WHICH SUPPORTS THE ABOVE
THINKING. WHILE ONE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE OVER IA SUN...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NE MN...SPREADING
AN ARC OF WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WRN UPPER MI.
WITH ZONE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THAT AREA AS WELL...THIS WAVE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI SUN AFTN. SO...
PLAN FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE IS TO CUT BACK ON PCPN ADVANCEMENT INTO
UPPER MI SUN. WILL KEEP ROUGHLY THE E HALF DRY THRU THE AFTN WITH
HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE W TRENDING TO LIKELY FAR W TOWARD KIWD. WITH
LESS AND LATER PCPN ARRIVAL...BUMPED TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD. IN
THE INTERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. THICKER
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FAR W.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A CONTINUED SLOW MOVING AND MESSY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK BLOCKING DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND
CANADA.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...IT SEEMS THE MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
CHANGING A DECENT AMOUNT FROM DAY TO DAY...WITH THE LAST SUITE
REALLY CUTTING BACK PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE EAST HALF. HAVE CONTINUED
TO USE OF THE GFS AS THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH IT OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE GENERAL PATTERN HAS A WEAK REX
BLOCK...WITH A SHORTWAVE/NEARLY CLOSED LOW TACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO OVER HUDSON BAY. ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SPLIT TO BECOME A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING TROUGH AND AN EASTWARD MOVING
CLOSED LOW. THE LOW WILL TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE CWA TO PROVIDE
ANY GOOD SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL CLIP THE WESTERN CWA WITH DECENT H7 FGEN AND MID-LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO MISS OUT ONCE AGAIN ON
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN. HAVE DROPPED PRECIP WORDING COMPLETELY FROM THE
FAR EAST...AND CUT BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. ONLY
CHANCE OF SEEING A VERY ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WOULD BE NEAR
MENOMINEE...SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER PREVIOUSLY ALONG
THE WI BORDER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
AN INCOMING UPPER JET WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWA. AFTER A WEAK AND ELONGATED UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSH EAST MONDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING ALOFT FOR
THE WEST. WITH NO SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND RECENT RAINFALL...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN AND PATCHY
FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICK THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEPART...SO DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO
DETAILED IN SPECIFIC AREAS. FOR NOW...ADDED WORDING OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE CLEARING LOOKS TO
BE MORE LIKELY. ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO A MORE NW WIND
DIRECTION FOR THE WEST HALF...AND EVENTUALLY THE EAST HALF. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE FORMATION ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL FOR LOCATIONS PRONE TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW.
TUESDAY...WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT ON SECOND GLANCE...A 100KT UPPER JET STREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST OVER UPPER MI SHOULD GIVE SOME SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE LEFT
EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGIONS. EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EXTRA LIFT
UNDER THE JET WILL TAP INTO THE LITTLE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AT THE SFC TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SOME MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A QUICK-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE PICKED UP BY AN ELONGATED
TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. WHILE A BOUT OF MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASSES OVER
UPPER MI ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE LAYER. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO ALL BUT SOME MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WI BORDER SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF THE CWA.
ONCE AGAIN...ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE
TO GENERATE EVEN MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS GIVEN A DEEP DRY LAYER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRY TO
RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH THIS TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. FOR NOW...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD
EXIST TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS A
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...GENERALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TODAY. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. INCLUDED SOME VCSH AT
KIWD AS THE FAR WRN CWA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. THEN...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING E TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN NIGHT
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20KT SUN INTO EARLY MON. COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS UP TO 25KT OVER FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BTWN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND MN N SHORE SUN AFTN/EVENING.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS E...ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE THRU THU...RESULTING IN WINDS UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1128 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MN HOLDS...AND IF IT CONTINUES
THE TREND OF DRIER MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM...KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IA/MN THRU 6Z. COMPLEX OF
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACROSS FAR SW MN HAS ERODED SOME OF THE DRIER AIR
THRU THE EARLY AFTN TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HOLD ONTO LIKELY FOR
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL AFT 3Z/09...AND MOST
LIKELY AFT 6-9Z BASED ON THE LATEST RAP TRENDS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NE OF MPX
FA...THE SFC LOW HAS WEAKENED COMPARED TO SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
AGO...AND IS MORE IN LINE OF THE EC THAT HAD THE SFC/UPPER LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA A FEW DAYS AGO ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND TSRA CHC/S
TO A MINIMUM...OR UNTIL AFT 18Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR FAR EASTERN MN/WC WI. DUE TO THE SLOWER AND
WEAKER SOLUTION OF THIS WX SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION AMTS MAY BE
LOWER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
UPPER LOW AFFECTING MN/WI TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND STILL BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH TROUGH
AXIS STILL ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MONDAY MORNING. 12Z DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM40...GEM AND ECMWF...KEEP A VERY WEAK
GRADIENT ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT THE WESTERNMOST
COUNTIES. 15Z SREF ALSO SUGGESTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. WITH RAIN FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING...THINK THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE WITH LITTLE REASON FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR ON
MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPMENT...WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NOT REALLY HAPPENING
UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON MONDAY.
ONCE THE LOW DRIFTS BY...SYSTEMS BEGIN ARRIVING AT A FASTER PACE.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN LATER ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER.
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LONGEST PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HAVE LOWER 50S
FOR NOW BUT COULD IMAGINE SEEING SOME UPPER 40S. THERE IS SOME HINT
A WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS MN TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
RIDGE REACHING THE DAKOTAS. BUT THIS SHOULD JUST PRODUCE SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CLOUDS...WILL STICK WITH 50S FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR UPPER RIDGE TO BE OVER WESTERN MN IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT IT IS RATHER FLAT. A PAIR OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRST ONE
WILL DAMPEN BUT THE SECOND ONE ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH. BUT MN/WI SHOULD STILL BE IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS AS MAIN LOW TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
INDIANA. DOES NOT REALLY LOOK LIKE A SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT FOR
OUR AREA.
TROUGH DEPARTS WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES. ECMWF...GEM AND GFS GENERALLY BRING IT OVER MN/WI
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING
FLATTENED AS LEAD SHORT WAVE FROM NEXT DEEP WESTERN TROUGH MOVES IN.
THUS WILL HAVE MORE POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z TAF. MORE INTENSE RAIN IS ON
ITS WAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONCE THAT SETS UP MVFR CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MVFR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD HAPPEN
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN LATE IN THE
MORNING...WITH IFR EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR BY THE NOON
HOUR TOMORROW...JUST HARD TO BE TOO CONFIDENT IN SPECIFIC TIMING
ON WHEN THE WORST CIGS/VIS ARRIVES. SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR WILL
LINGER UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...
THE CEILINGS AND ANY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO ARRIVE...BUT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HAVE ARRIVED OR BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE AIRPORT BY SUNRISE. THE WALL OF WATER SHOWING UP
ON RADAR TO OUR SOUTH IS HEADED THIS WAY. WE THINK THERE COULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS BECOME
LIGHTER OR DIMINISH. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE AIRPORT WILL LIKELY
BE 1500 FT OR LOWER FOR A CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF ONCE
IT SETS IN. THIS MEANS LESS THAN OPTIMAL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
EVENING TRAVEL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...VFR BY AFTN. WND NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-7 KT.
WED...VFR. CHANCE OF TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KT
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1057 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2013
UPDATE TO AVIATION
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming.
Westerly flow aloft will continue overnight allowing for generally
dry and stable conditions. The exception being weak short wave
energy depicted as a cloud shield on satellite imagery over southern
Alberta. Calgary was reporting virga on their 02z observation. Both
the RUC and HRRR analysis develop an area of isolated showers along
the international boundary after 04z and have included this on the
weather and pop grids. Temperatures overnight look good. Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 0457Z.
VFR conditions will continue over the area at least through Sunday
evening. A weak disturbance moving east along the Montana/Canada
will bring areas of mid level cloudiness with isolated showers to
the Hi-Line (including KHVR) through around 09Z. Otherwise, skies
will be mostly clear with light winds. However, another weak
disturbance will move along the Canadian border again after 18Z,
bringing similar conditions as this evening to the Hi-Line area
(including both KCTB and KHVR). The airmass across far southwest
Montana will also become unstable between 21Z and 03Z, but any
convective activity will likely stay south and east of the KBZN
terminal. Coulston
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 255 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2013
Today through Monday...An upper level ridge over the Pacific
Northwest will be flattened as the jet stream pushes east through
British Columbia tonight. As this transition takes place, a
northwesterly flow aloft over Montana will back to the west and
remain in place through Sunday night. During this time frame it
appears that the weather over Montana will be mostly quiet with
seasonal temperatures. However, there will be a slight chance for
a shower or thunderstorm near the Canadian border tonight through
Sunday morning, but most activity will likely remain north of the
border. On Sunday afternoon, the airmass will also become slightly
unstable near Yellowstone Park with an isolated shower or
thunderstorm possible through the evening hours. Shortwave energy
moves across the Great Basin on Monday with flow aloft backing to
the southwest and the airmass across southwest Montana become
unstable. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the mountains of southwest Montana by mid afternoon with
convection moving to the northeast into central Montana by late
afternoon. There is a potential that a few of these storms may
become borderline strong with gusty winds. mpj
Monday night through Saturday...Models in good agreement early in
period with high pressure ridge being flattened to the south as
low pressure system tracks across southern Canada. meanwhile,
second low pressure trough strengthening as it digs down along
Pacific Northwest coast. This low begins to work its way inland
Wednesday night and Thursday putting Montana under a more unstable
southwest flow with smaller, embedded weather systems being
steered into Montana. With some unstable air and enhanced dynamics
of weather systems, afternoon and evening showers with some
thunderstorms are possible each day through the period. Solutions
as to the where and how much for precipitation vary widely but
indicate most of CWA has a fair chance for some showers...with the
potential for heavier precipitation in some locations particularly
central and north central. Cold front associated with the trough
currently expected to push through Montana Thursday and this could
be an active weather day. At this point model solutions start to
deviate...GFS wants to lift center of low to the northeast into
Alberta while continuing to strengthen. ECMWF slowly tracks center
of low into Oregon and Idaho as it gradually weakens. Overall, a
slightly cooler air mass will be over the region keeping
temperatures slightly cooler through the remainder of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Small streams and creeks remain high and out of their banks across a
large portion of central and north central Montana. Areal flood
warnings will continue for Hill/Blaine/Fergus Counties. Point flood
warnings remain in effect for three locations: Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
These points are expected to remain near or above flood stage into
next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 78 46 76 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 45 74 42 75 / 10 10 0 10
HLN 49 82 51 81 / 0 0 0 20
BZN 43 84 47 82 / 0 0 0 30
WEY 37 76 43 78 / 0 10 10 30
DLN 45 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 40
HVR 48 78 47 78 / 10 10 10 10
LWT 45 76 46 74 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning through Monday morning for Blaine, Fergus, and Hill
Counties.
Flood Warning until further notice for Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SWRN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE NAM...SREF AND RAP MODEL ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE FAR WESTERN
PERIPHERY FOR BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY UNTIL 15Z TODAY. HAVE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT AFFECTED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WIND. THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALSO BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH TO THE EAST THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WESTERN SANDHILLS LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. TWEAKED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH INPUT FROM THE NAM12 SFC TEMPS WHICH IS ALSO VERY CLOSE
TO A MET/MAV BLEND.
TIME SECTIONS SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT 5 TO 15 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES OVER ILLINOIS LATE
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE FOUR
CORNER REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT TO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SOUTHWEST RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN/HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY...BRINGING UNSEASONABLE WARM /HOT/ TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR SW NEB WILL PUSH CLOSE TO IF NOT REACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS...THE REST OF WESTERN NEB SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 90S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER NORTH CENTRAL...MID AND UPPER 80S...WITH MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORING FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST IS DRY AT THIS TIME AS TEMPS
ALOFT PROVIDE A STRONG CAP. THE CONCERN IS PW/S WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH...ABOUT 75 PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...AND ACCORDING TO THE NAM
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG LL JET THAT NOSES INTO THE CWA. THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS NOT SHOWING A FAVORABLE JET...THUS THE
DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE DRY LINE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. SW NEB
LIKELY WILL TOP 100 WITH ALL BUT PART OF NORTHERN ZONES TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. RH LEVELS TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE
SHOULD EASILY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER IT IS FAIRLY GREEN
AND WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS...NOT A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A STRONG CAP TO THE SOUTH.
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER
SHOULD STILL SEE SW NEB WARM INTO THE 90S...ELSEWHERE 80S. THEN A
COOL FRONT TO PASS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MODELS IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE RESULTING SLIGHT COOL DOWN WHICH
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD LATER IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGE DRIFTS EAST WITH SOME SHORT WAVES TO RIDE THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...RIDGE RIDERS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHWEST UNTIL 14Z-15Z...THEN
NORTHWEST 12G18KT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
219 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK HIPRES AT THE SFC AND SHRP RDGG ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THEAREA
DRY TODAY. THE DAY WILL START WITH SOME DENSE FOG AS THE RECENT
RAIN AND CLR SKIES HAVE COMBINED TO SATURATE THE LL THIS MRNG.
STRONG SUNNWILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 70S THIS AFTN AND MAY TOUCH
80 IN THE CLYS OF NEPA AND THE CNTRL SRN TIER. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHRP TROF WITH CLSD LOW APRCHS FOR TNGT THRU TUE. SLOW MVG SYSTEM
HAS A GULF CONNECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE AVBL WHICH SHD RESULT IN A
GOOD SOAKING BEGINNING MON AND CONTG THRU THE SHRT TERM. FVRBL UPR
JET DYNAMICS WITH RR OF A JET OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WRAPPING ARND THE UPR LOW TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE UVM WITH A WELL DEFINED SFC TROF WRM FNT
FEATURE CONNECTED TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOW. GOOD DYNAMICS
SHD ALSO HELP DVLP EMBEDDED CONV LOCALLY INCRSG RAINFALL AMTS AND
RATES. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME FLOOD FLAGS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
PSN OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.
MODEL TEMP GUID IN MARGINAL AGREEMENT FOR THE PD WITH THE GFS/MAV GUID
CONSDIERABLY WRMR THAN THE NAM/MET. BELIEVE THE DEEP CLD CLV AND PCPN
WILL KEEP THE TMPS FROM RCHG THE MAV LVLS BUT DID GO SLGTLY WRMR
THAN THE MET GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE SFC AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE PERSISTENT FEATURES OF
NOTE FOR OUR FA LTR THIS WEEK...WILL BE AN UPR-LVL TROUGH ACRS
SERN CANADA...AND AN UPR-LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN AND S-CNTRL
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD NEWD
WITH TIME...A NW FLOW PATN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL.
OCNL NRN STREAM WVS WILL TRAVERSE THIS FLOW PATN...AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD -SHRA DURG THE MID-WEEK PD. ATTM...IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORCED LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SUPPLY MAY
RESIDE S OF OUR CWA...BUT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...BOTH WPC AND
NWP CONSENSUS POINT TWDS A CHC OF SHWRS...AND WE`VE ACCEPTED
THIS...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY MEDIUM RANGE UNCERTAINTIES.
FROM FRI ONWARD...MODEL/WPC PROGS SHOW SFC RIDGING COMING IN FROM
THE W...ALG WITH BLDG HTS ALOFT. THUS...DRY WX IS STILL INDICATED
IN THE GRIDS TWDS NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH NO STG TEMP SIGNALS DEPICTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WE WENT
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR MID-JUNE (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S...AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
AS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS NOW OVER THE TERMINALS
MOVES EAST...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. IFR FOG APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KELM STARTING AT 06Z...WITH
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. ELSEWHERE THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING IS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION BUT SURFACE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY VERY NEAR THE DEWPOINT. WENT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z AT KSYR/KRME/KBGM AS THESE TERMINALS WILL BE
THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. AT KITH AND KAVP WE HAVE A BETTER SHOT TO
SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY...THEREFORE INCLUDED A FEW HOURS
OF IFR HERE. RETURN TO VFR BY 12Z WITH VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LGT THROUGH THE PD (MAINLY AOB 5 KT).
OUTLOOK...
MON AND TUE...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY...SPCLY FROM MON EVE
ONWARD...AS SHWRS DVLP OVER THE AREA.
WED AND THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
422 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE NEXT WEEK. DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A DEEP PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT FROM PRESENT 1.5 INCH RANGE TO AROUND 2
INCHES BY THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS INCREASES. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE FRONT AND ALSO OVER OUR
WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST IN VICINITY TO A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID 80S MOST PLACES FOR HIGHS TODAY.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL MAKE FOR A VERY SUMMER-
LIKE FEEL TO THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 70 MOST
PLACES. &&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST MON MORNING WILL MOVE EAST PUSHING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL POOL
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES
REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS CARRIES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MINOR PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN H5 TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON TUES
MOVING OFF SHORE BY LATE TUES. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ON TUES BEFORE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. BEST CONVERGENCE TUES
AFTN WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF SHORE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW MON INTO TUES WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TUES AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW BY TUES EVENING
ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE
CONVECTION MAY END EARLIER ON TUES WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 1.5 INCHES BY TUES EVENING.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MON THROUGH TUES WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 65 AND 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH CLOUDS AND PCP IN THE FORECAST. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ON MON WITH LOWER TEMPS IN SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUES WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER. IF DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND SUNSHINE SNEAKS OUT ON TUES ALONG WITH
A GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPS MAY SHOOT UP TOWARD
90.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH UP THROUGH THE INLAND
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL HELP TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. DEEPER W-NW FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AS RIDGE REACHES UP INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM SOME CU BUILD UP AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTN...WILL SEE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO KEEP A RAIN FREE
FORECAST FOR WED. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AND SUNSHINE WILL PRODUCE VERY WARM TEMPS ON WED.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 90S ON WED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THURS. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT A VERY MOIST OR UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO
THE 90S MOST PLACES AS SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL EARLIER IN THE DAY. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COME
LATE THURS AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THEREFORE
EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT.
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL VALUES RUNNING IN THE
MID 80S FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL IN THE MID 60S MOST PLACES IN AN OVERALL DRIER AIR
MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH CALM WINDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...VSBYS
ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DROP INLAND DUE TO FOG. EXPECT PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLBT AND KFLO BETWEEN 07-11Z THIS MORNING.
THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE INHIBITED FOG
FORMATION THUS FAR...BUT MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OFFSHORE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
COASTAL TERMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTN
WITH INLAND SEA BREEZE PROGRESSION AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY WITH SCT/BKN CU AND PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 15KFT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FROM PRESENT CONDITIONS. A
STEADY S TO SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS AT PRESENT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL STAY IN A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THESE S-SW WINDS UP TO UP TO 15 TO 20 KT MON AND CLOSE TO 20 KT
MON NIGHT WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS MAY
TOP THE 6 FT MARK REACHING SCA CRITERIA IN OUTER WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-SW THROUGH LATE TUES INTO EARLY
WED AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT TUES BUT WINDS WILL VEER BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD BY EARLY WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW THROUGH WED AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. OVERALL EXPECT SW
WINDS 10 KTS OR SO TO START THE DAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS RISE AGAIN LATE WED THROUGH THURS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THURS. WNA SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AROUND 6 TO
7 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT THURS BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO
THE NORTH BEHIND FRONT. BY FRIDAY GREATER OFF SHORE NW TO N FLOW
WILL DIMINISH DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KTS ALLOWING SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS BUT STILL REMAINING 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
MOSAIC RADAR ANIMATIONS DEPICT RETURNS OVER SE GEORGIA MOVING IN
LANGUID FASHION TO THE NE. SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE EXITING NEW ENGLAND FROM THE
SOGGY REMNANTS OF ANDREA...BUT OF MORE RELEVANCE TO THE UPCOMING
FORECAST...ANOTHER SLUG OF HIGH WATER VAPOR CONTENT WAS EVIDENT
OVER OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO LIFTING NORTHWARD.
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SURFACE REFLECTION OR
CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH THIS PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT THE
BERMUDA HIGH CIRCULATION OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW THIS
ENHANCED MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT
APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OFFSHORE COULD BRING CLIPPING SHOWERS TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION. A
FEW LIGHT DROPS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND AS COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES
AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK H7-H5 IMPULSES. THUS WILL RETAIN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING OF MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ONE CHANGE MADE WAS TO BUMP UP
MINIMUM TEMPS A NOTCH AS ADVANCING CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED TEMP
CURVE DROPS THIS EVENING...AND SUSPECT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS
THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP VERY MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACTUALLY INCREASE
AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP ERODING. THE SEABREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO FOCUS/CONVERGE/LIFT MOISTURE. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE WITH BEST COVERAGE LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR
THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT/DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED WATERS DURING THE NIGHT AND SKIM
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE AT NIGHT AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION EXPANDS. WET SOILS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
MONDAY...A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM WILL MOVE EAST...HELPING TO
BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NW A LITTLE CLOSER. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE FRONT END OF THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE AND
RIDE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE
COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR MON WITH POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR INLAND ZONES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S WITH PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING WELL INLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLEST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH
LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SO IT WILL FEEL HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...TUESDAY APPEARS TO BRING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES OF THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT AND WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
TROUGH PUSH THROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO GET UP TO
NEAR NORMAL AS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE TOO
PREVALENT. MODELS STARTING TO SEEM RELUCTANT TO PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH BUT GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IT SHOULD MAKE CLEAN
FROPA ALBEIT QUICK TO RETURN TO THE NORTH IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE
EVEN AS SOON AS PERHAPS WED. MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN CHANCES WED LIKELY
SHIFTS TO PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THUS MOST ACTIVITY APPEARS TO REMAIN
TO OUR NW...IF THERE IS MUCH AT ALL SINCE THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME
DOWNSLOPE DRYING. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD BUT THERE IS AT LEAST AGREEMENT IN FEATURES IN THAT ANOTHER
TROUGH AND FRONT ARE POISED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES RAMPING UP
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MAY THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH CALM WINDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...VSBYS
ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DROP INLAND DUE TO FOG. EXPECT PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLBT AND KFLO BETWEEN 07-11Z THIS MORNING.
THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE INHIBITED FOG
FORMATION THUS FAR...BUT MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OFFSHORE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
COASTAL TERMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTN
WITH INLAND SEA BREEZE PROGRESSION AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY WITH SCT/BKN CU AND PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 15KFT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
ALL HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW 10-15 KT OVER THE
WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL RELAX A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION FADES. SEAS WILL REMAINS 3
TO 4 FT THROUGH DAWN SUNDAY...IN A COMBINATION SE WAVES EVERY 7
SECONDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WIND CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT NO SEA FOG IS
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUN WILL VEER TO SW SUN NIGHT AND
REMAIN FROM THE SW THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. A NOCTURNAL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH SUN
NIGHT AND MON NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT MON AND CLOSE TO 20 KT MON
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND
THEN BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT MON AND MON NIGHT. INCREASING WIND AND SWELL
WILL BRING SEAS CLOSE TO 6 FT BY LATE MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MAY BRIEFLY CROSS
THE WATERS LATER TODAY. MODELS STARTING TO HANDLE THIS FRONT
DIFFERENTLY AND ERRATICALLY LEADING TO A LOWERED FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED THAT THE
FRONT WILL NEARLY OR COMPLETELY WASH OUT AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE RETAINED BY WEDNESDAY AFTER A POSSIBLE SLIGHT VEER ASSOC
WITH ITS PASSAGE. THIS APPEARS TO OPEN THE CAROLINA COASTS UP FOR
SOME SWELL ENERGY FROM THE ATLANTIC THAT ACCORDING TO MOST WAVE
GUIDANCE WILL LEAD TO SOME HEADLINES OR EVEN ADVISORIES FOR SEAS
EVEN THOUGH WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER. THIS TOO SEEMS A
LITTLE DUBIOUS AS GUIDANCE SEEMS RATHER ROBUST WITH THE RESULTING
WAVES. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN AS THE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ND HAVE MADE NO
FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. RAP HAS THAT NORTHERN BAND DIMINISHING
AND THEN REFORMING...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LEANED
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE RAP AND KEPT MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER THE
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE MORNING. NO CHANGES
TO TEMPS AND WINDS AS EVERYTHING SEEMS ON TRACK SO FAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE
PRECIP OVER CENTRAL ND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH FURTHER EAST AT
ALL...AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HINT AT THIS AREA STARTING TO DIE
OUT AND MOST OF OUR PRECIP COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH OUT OF SD.
KEPT HIGHEST POPS JUST ALONG THE FAR WESTERN FRINGE...AND DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATER TOMORROW MORNING. WITH CU
DIMINISHING...THE NORTHEAST HAS LOST QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER SO
ADJUSTED CLOUDS A BIT FOR TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND POPS AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
CROSSED OVER INTO OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER THIS EVENING. GIVEN
HRRR...RAP...AND NAM SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS VERY SLOW RADAR
TRENDS...THINK THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY IN
THAT GENERAL VICINITY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER EAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNSET AS SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DECK OVER
CENTRAL ND AND SD MOVES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE DRIER NAM INITIALLY.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND EXPECT
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD IN THE WEST WITH CLOUDS...WITH COOLER
READINGS IN THE EAST. IF THE LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE...NOT MUCH
PRECIP MAY FALL IN ANY AREA WITH BEST FORCING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
ON SUNDAY...THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTH COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON
SO WILL MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS IN
ALL AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FOR MONDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME CAPE AND LI/S TO
AROUND -4C ARE PROGGED IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND IT SHOULD BE WARM.
FOR TUE...FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD HELP
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 PERHAPS IN SOME AREAS...WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU THE CONUS IS UNDER A TROUGH RIDGE TROUGH
PATTERN. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE RIDING UP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SPREADING SOME PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY WED. EVEN THEN THE SIGNAL IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL WITH THE GFS/GEM LOOKING FAIRLY DRY YET. PATTERN
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN FRI INTO SAT WITH SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
TAKING OVER. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO WET WEATHER. LATEST RUN
OF THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO WILL SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE
IN STORE. TEMP PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S OR NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL GO DOWN TO MVFR SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z AT KDVL AND
AROUND 12Z IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...CONDITIONS WILL
STAY VFR A BIT LONGER BUT CIGS SHOULD GO DOWN BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AND SHOULD IMPACT MOST SITES ALTHOUGH NOT CONTINUOUSLY.
SOME SPOTS COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR CIGS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS POINT TO PUT THAT INTO THE TAFS. THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED SO ALSO KEPT OUT FOR NOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GRT LKS ARND NEXT THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES THIS AM...THE RESULT OF A CALM
WIND AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC
RH SUGGESTS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 12Z. WAA DEVELOPING ON WEST SIDE
OF RETREATING RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
OHIO AND SW PA AT 09Z. THE LATEST RAP OUTPUT...WHICH IS PICKING UP
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LYR OF MOISTURE NR 700MB...SUGGESTS THIS
BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP A BIT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PA LATER THIS AM. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SC MTNS.
8H TEMPS SURGING TO NR 15C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GO SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS UNDER PTSUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD APPROACHING UPPER LOW
OVR THE MIDWEST. VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MDL GUIDANCE THRU LATE
MONDAY...ALL OF WHICH TRACK UPPER LOW EASTWARD TOWARD PA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LL JET/PWATS WILL
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE IN
THE DAY BASED ON GEFS/SREF OUTPUT.
HAVE PLAYED DOWN THE CHC OF THUNDER MONDAY...AS OVERCAST SKIES AND
ONGOING RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
00Z GEFS MEAN CAPES AOB 500 J/KG. A BLEND OF OPER AND ENSEMBLE
QPF SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL MDL RUNS PRODUCE
LOCAL AMTS ARND 2 INCHES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PWATS
2-3SD ABV NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA MON EVENING...CAUSING HEAVY SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER...SCT ADDITIONAL SHRA AND POSS TSRA SHOULD BE IN
STORE FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...AS 5H TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ARND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH NORMAL TIMING ISSUES REMAIN...BULK OF MDLS TRACK SFC LOW
SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY...SO HAVE RAMPED UP THE CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE MDL DATA TO SUPPORT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDS ARRIVING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS SE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT WIND AND MCLEAR SKIES UNDER SFC RIDGE IS RESULTING IN EARLY
AM FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...
MAINLY ACROSS NW PA WHERE PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING.
ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSS THROUGH 13Z.
WAA ON WEST SIDE OF RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS OHIO AND SW PA AT 06Z...AND SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PA BEFORE DAWN. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...
RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT
LATE DAY CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS...BUT HELD MENTION
TO VCSH IN TAFS FOR THAT AREA DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS CENTRAL PA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS MAINLY IN THE SW.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ESP MON-MON NIGHT/. SCT PM
TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
WED-THU...SCT SHOWERS...BUT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW
ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR CIG/VSBY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE ONSET OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 17Z. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD IMPACT TERMINALS IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN 18 AND
22Z WHEN STRONG SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO IFR LEVELS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE HOUSTON AREA BY 22Z AND THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY 23Z. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER ROBUST WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 AND
1.8 INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE REGION AND
SE TX WILL LIE IN THE ASCENT REGION OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY.
300 MB ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER
THE REGION AND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS PRETTY DEEP THROUGH OUT THE
850-700 LAYER.
CONVECTION HAS WANED THIS EVENING AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FAVORED THE RAP IN THE SHORT TERM
WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA
DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE IN AND AROUND MATAGORDA BAY. THE TEXAS
TECH 3 KM WRF SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS. FEEL POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE NUDGED A BIT
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AND LOWERED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND
RAISED POPS A TAD FOR THE PRE-DAWN PERIOD OVER THE SW ZONES. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 91 73 93 74 / 10 30 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 92 74 93 75 / 10 40 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 87 79 89 80 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
339 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TONIGHT IS PEGGING DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES AND
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY IT.
THE INITIAL RAIN BAND HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY
LATE MORNING. THE NEXT MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED CHANNEL OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850-925MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE 09.05 HRRR AND 09.00Z ARW/NMM RUNS ALL
ARE SHOWING THE NORTHERN END OF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE REDEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY STARTS TO INCREASE.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY DUE TO WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR
AND LOW INSTABILITY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADOES. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ON UP TO THE
INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW. THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE FASTER
MOVING THAN WHAT YOU WOULD TYPICALLY SEE WITH NST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
TODAY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH 03Z.
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILL IN/WEAKEN TONIGHT AS
WELL AS DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL MCS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST...A POOL OF WARM
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C PLUS NOSING UP INTO IOWA. THE
QUESTION GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS WITH WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP AND WHETHER IT WILL EXTEND UP INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA. THE 09.00Z NAM IS THE STRONGEST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THIS LLJ AND BRINGS THE NOSE RIGHT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER 09.00Z GUIDANCE PAINTS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG/NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS ADVERTISED WITH THE NAM. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND TRANSITION TO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. DETAILS WILL UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SCENARIO THAT WILL INCLUDE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.
BEYOND THIS...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS RIDGING
SETS UP FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM COMES IN
ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
UPPER LOW BECOMING CLOSED OFF NOW AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING AHEAD OF IT HAS BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAILING LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
START DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK. SOME BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN CURRENT BAND AND MAIN FORCING AREA BUT WITH UPPER LOW EVEN
CLOSER ON SUNDAY...BREAKS SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS LACK OF CAP
ALLOWS AUTO CONVECT TO OCCUR WITH MORE SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF LOW MAY CREATE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN WEST WITH LIGHTER SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND SHARP
INCREASE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF SURFACE. VAD WIND PROFILE AROUND 850
MB ALREADY 50KTS AT KDMX.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1005 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
MAIN PURPOSE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS IN THE POP GRIDS...THAT IS...DELAYED THE RAINFALL A
BIT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID
REFRESH RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS SO TRENDED
HEAVILY TOWARDS THAT MODEL...WHICH SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING TOWARDS THE NOON HOUR. AS WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER AR. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT SOME LOW CIGS/VIS COULD
BE SEEN UNDER THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER NRN AR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE WAS ENTERING EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A REMNANT BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONT IN OKLAHOMA...WHILE ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...AS THE FRONT ENTERS ARKANSAS. LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SYNOPTIC SETUP AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ISN/T THAT GREAT...SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...
WITH THE FRONT HANGING UP OVER THE AREA...THEN BACKING TO THE
NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTERACTS
WITH THE RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BE NOTED IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
90S. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING INCREDIBLY HOT...AND THE SREF
BEING UNDERDONE. MEX MOS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE AS WELL. HAVE GONE
MORE TOWARD THE CANADIAN AND RAW GFS...AS THESE SEEM TO BE THE
MOST REALISTIC...GIVEN THE SETUP.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE FROM THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY REGION TOWARDS THE CENTRAL EAST COAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM...WITH WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE.
HAVE MENTIONED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT AS
THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT THIS FRONT WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS JUST
TO THE WEST OF AR. LATE THIS WEEK...THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...EXPANDING EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WARM ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 90S FOR
HIGHS...AND PRECIP CHANCES TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 83 65 83 67 / 60 20 20 10
CAMDEN AR 85 68 93 72 / 40 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 79 63 85 65 / 40 20 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 84 68 91 71 / 40 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 67 90 72 / 50 20 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 87 68 92 72 / 40 20 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 84 64 91 70 / 40 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 61 83 65 / 50 20 20 10
NEWPORT AR 85 64 86 68 / 60 30 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 86 66 91 72 / 50 20 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 83 64 89 70 / 40 20 20 10
SEARCY AR 85 64 89 69 / 60 20 20 10
STUTTGART AR 86 66 91 70 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1048 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE TEMPS BASED ON SOME MORNING
SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUD COVERAGE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...TIMING OF INCREASING POPS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED
ON RECENT HI-RES MODEL RUNS AND SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS THE GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD. PWATS ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS ARE IN THE
1.8-2.0 INCH RANGE THEREFORE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUITE
EFFICIENT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
LARGELY ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 436 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
WITH THE CWA BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AREA IS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA
AND WILL MAKE FOR A RAIN FILLED SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING EXPANDING THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND BY AFTERNOON EXPECT DEVELOPMENT ALSO ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH EXCEPT FOR BEING
SLIGHTLY SLOW INITIALLY ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
SHOWERS...APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE SHEAR IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL HELP TO PLAY A ROLE IN
SUPPRESSING SEVERE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH POPS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST IS FOR BETTER
CHANCES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL LIKELY POPS IN FOR
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE CWA AND WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A DRY SLOT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY SO APPEARS MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FOR THE MOST PART AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSELY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING.
11
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA PROVIDING FOR AN ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM RISK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE POPS HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN THE DAYTIME...CERTAINLY AN ODDITY
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FIRST SHORTWAVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER TRANSITIONING TO JUST MID
RANGE SCATTERED FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN LATE TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH. GFS SHOWS POTENT DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ON THU
WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH AND ALLOWS A WEAK
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SUPPORT AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WILL RESULT IN HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THU EVENING.
AS FRONT CLEARS...EVEN DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER. WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE BUT POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END
CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TODAY AND MOSTLY ON THE SE
SIDE...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS OF SW. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS IN TERMS OF TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. AREA OF SHRA
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. ONCE
THE RAIN MOVES IN...SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD WITH SOME BREAKS. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND TIMING OF PRECIP/TSRA. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND CIGS.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
ATLANTA 81 67 82 70 / 90 80 60 30
BLAIRSVILLE 80 65 76 65 / 90 80 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 83 68 83 70 / 90 80 60 50
COLUMBUS 84 69 87 73 / 90 70 60 30
GAINESVILLE 81 66 80 68 / 90 80 60 50
MACON 85 70 87 71 / 90 70 60 30
ROME 83 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 81 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
VIDALIA 87 72 88 74 / 70 60 60 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 436 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
WITH THE CWA BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AREA IS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA
AND WILL MAKE FOR A RAIN FILLED SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING EXPANDING THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND BY AFTERNOON EXPECT DEVELOPMENT ALSO ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH EXCEPT FOR BEING
SLIGHTLY SLOW INITIALLY ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
SHOWERS...APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE SHEAR IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL HELP TO PLAY A ROLE IN
SUPPRESSING SEVERE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH POPS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST IS FOR BETTER
CHANCES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL LIKELY POPS IN FOR
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE CWA AND WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A DRY SLOT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY SO APPEARS MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FOR THE MOST PART AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSELY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING.
11
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA PROVIDING FOR AN ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM RISK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE POPS HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN THE DAYTIME...CERTAINLY AN ODDITY
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FIRST SHORTWAVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER TRANSITIONING TO JUST MID
RANGE SCATTERED FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN LATE TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH. GFS SHOWS POTENT DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ON THU
WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH AND ALLOWS A WEAK
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SUPPORT AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WILL RESULT IN HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THU EVENING.
AS FRONT CLEARS...EVEN DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER. WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE BUT POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END
CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TODAY AND MOSTLY ON THE SE
SIDE...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS OF SW. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS IN TERMS OF TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. AREA OF SHRA
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. ONCE
THE RAIN MOVES IN...SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD WITH SOME BREAKS. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND TIMING OF PRECIP/TSRA. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND CIGS.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
ATLANTA 81 67 82 70 / 90 80 60 30
BLAIRSVILLE 77 65 76 65 / 90 80 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 83 68 83 70 / 90 80 60 50
COLUMBUS 84 69 87 73 / 90 70 60 30
GAINESVILLE 80 66 80 68 / 90 80 60 50
MACON 85 70 87 71 / 90 70 60 30
ROME 83 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 81 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
VIDALIA 87 72 88 74 / 70 60 60 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1004 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
14Z/9AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1003MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS.
ALOFT...VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM IS EVIDENT AS CLOSED 500MB LOW
IS ANALYZED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AS WELL. TWO DISTINCT SHORT-WAVES
ARE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW...WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND THE SECOND FURTHER NORTHWEST
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER-MAKER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TODAY...AS IT INTERACTS
WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13Z HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AND GENERALLY KEEPS CONVECTION OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC AND
EARLY MODEL DATA...HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...EXCEPT LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ARRIVE ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NE KILX CWA AROUND CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM. HAVE THEREFORE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE
EVENING...THEN ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ZONE UPDATE HAS
ALREADY BEEN SENT.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU ABOUT 03Z...THEN PROBABILITIES
FOR MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM
SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINLY SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER BASED
CU (4000-5000 FEET) WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS
AFTN ACRS THE WEST...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST MORE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIP TONIGHT AS
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACRS THE MIDWEST AND THAT IS
WHEN WE MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING MVFR CIGS. IT APPEARS
THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE FROM 03Z TO
06Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM
10 TO 15 KTS WITH PSBL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACRS THE EAST THIS
AFTN. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM A SSW DIRECTION TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES ACRS THE REGION.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
00Z MODELS CONTINUE SLOWER TRENDS WITH WEATHER SYSTEM TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND TRENDED FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ALOFT A 565 DM 500 MB LOW WAS OVER NE NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED 1003
MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/SD BORDER AND DEEPENING A BIT
HAS WARM FRONT THRU CENTRAL PARTS OF IA/IL SOUTH OF I-74 AND COLD
FRONT WAS OVER FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WERE
OVER CENTRAL IA AND WESTERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER
CENTRAL IL WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH SSE WINDS LESS THAN 10
MPH. LIGHT FOG/HAZE AT LAWRENCEVILLE WITH VSBY OF 4 MILES SO FOG
NOT AS EXTENSIVE IN SE IL AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ESE ACROSS IA
TODAY AND TO SOUTH OF LAKE MI BY MIDDAY MONDAY. COLD FRONT TO
TRACK EAST OVER IL DURING TONIGHT AND INTO INDIANA MONDAY. HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER SOUTH OF LINCOLN FOR 15% RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...5% RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND 2% RISK OF A
TORNADO. MUCAPES ARE 1000-1500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AND WIND SHEAR IS LOWER THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND WARMEST OVER EASTERN IL
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH.
HAVE 60-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
IN THE EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO 30-50% MONDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
NE AREAS. THIS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF OVER IL AND SPC HAS 5%
RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN FAR SE IL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCE FURTHER SE IN KY AND THE TN VALLEY.
A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO REGION. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED QUICKER WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO IL TUE
AND WED AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMER TOO SO HAVE WARMER TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUE AND UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F WED.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT OVER
NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE QUAD CITIES. SHORT WAVE AND POSSIBLE MCS
RIDGING OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND
BRINGINGS HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO NORTHERN IL WITH SE IL
LIKELY STAYING DRY OR JUST SLIGHT CHANCES WED. LOW PRESSURE TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT DRIVING A COLD FRONT SE
THROUGH IL AND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO REGION WED
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU OVER EASTERN IL. MAY HAVE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL IL WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT. TEMPS COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL THU BUT WARM BACK UP BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO IL. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDGING OVER TOP OF
RIDGE COULD RETURN CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
AREAS NEXT WEEKEND.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1014 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME SEMBLANCE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS OFF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER WRN IOWA. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TO ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING TO BOOST
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. THERE IS A RATHER HEALTHY RIBBON OF MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION STRETCHING FROM ERN ND ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL
LOWER MI. THE FORCING IS MUCH STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THE STATE
WHERE THERE IS NOW A WIDE BAND OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM NRN WI TO
ERN ND. THE MID LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING
MID CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTUALLY LOOKING QUITE
LOW TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS IOWA TODAY...MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL BUILD A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER SE MI. THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWED A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB WHICH WILL
ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER WELL INLAND. THE MOST RECENT NAM AND RUC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDING OVER
WRN LOWER MI. THUS...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER SURGE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD 00Z. THIS
WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 636 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
//DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO
HELP LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH MID CLOUDS HANGING
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY AND SLOWLY LOWERING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTS. A MUCH BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...LEADING TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING EAST
TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COUPLED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH THE AIRMASS POTENTIAL CERTAINLY 80 DEGREES BASED ON 850
MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 12 C. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE A FACTOR COMING
OFF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE/LAKE ST CLAIR. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL FAVOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES...WITH FLINT AREA LIKELY COMING IN AS ONE OF THE WARMER
READINGS DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THE 500 MB LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. A
GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE 6-12Z MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOT SEEN
ARRIVING UNTIL CLOSE TO 12Z...GIVING ONE PAUSE WITH THE HIGH LIKELY
POPS (SEE 00Z REGIONAL GEM)...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-59. THEN
AGAIN...IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z GFS...THERE IS NOTHING TO WORRY
ABOUT...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WOULD BE IN ORDER. LOOKING AT THE MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS (500 MB) COMPARED TO RAOBS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...DON`T HAVE OVERWHELMING CONFIDENCE IN EITHER OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE 00Z EURO GIVES SUPPORT TO THE GFS...SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
MONDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES ENHANCED LIFT/FORCING. WILL NOT
BE MAKING ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
ONCE THIS STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...THE PATTERN RETURNS
TO A MORE OR LESS QUIET ONE. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN
THE WEST/NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE BY
THAT TIME...CHANCES SEEM PRETTY HIGH THAT A BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIP SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD
ASSUME THAT THIS GENERAL TREND WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED NORTH/SOUTH
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PROGRESSING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO
BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD...KEEPING THE NORTHERN EXTENT LIMITED.
AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60
DEGREE RANGE.
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS....AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE
REGION...SO WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHRTWV RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE OF A
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NCENTRAL PLAINS DOWNWIND OF
AN UPR RDG OVER THE WRN CONUS. WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG DOMINATING THE
GREAT LKS UNDER THE UPR RDG/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...THERE IS QUIET
OVERNGT WX OVER THE CWA WITH MOCLR SKIES. HI CLDS ON THE NE FLANK OF
THE SFC LO OVER NW IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SHRTWV ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS AS
FAR NE AS SE MN/FAR SW WI WHERE H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS MAXIMIZED.
AXIS OF MORE WDSPRD RA CORRESPONDS WELL TO AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SHOWN
BY THE NAM.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS.
TDAY...MOST OF THE RECENT NUMERICAL RUNS SHOW SHRTWV NOW IN THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 00Z MON. AS A RESULT...SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT LKS...WITH CONTINUED 12HR H5 HGT RISES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA FARTHER NE OF THE SHRTWV. GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SUPPORTING AREA
OF SHRA IN SE MN SPREADING SLOWLY TO THE N AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
FAR WRN CWA THIS AFTN. SO OPTED TO RETAIN THE GOING FLAVOR OF THE
GOING FCST SHOWING POPS ARRIVING OVER THE W IN THE AFTN. BUT DID
TRIM BACK ON EWD EXTENSION OF THESE POPS TOWARD THE H5 HGT RISES AND
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ZERO QPF OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. ALSO
TENDED TO RAISE FCST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR E
WHERE THERE WL BE MORE SUNSHINE. MIXING TO H8 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING AOA 75 AT ERY. MORE CLD COVER SHOULD RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY OVER THE W.
TNGT...CLOSED LO OVER IOWA IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E INTO ILLINOIS...SO
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY FORCING FOR PCPN OVER
UPR MI WITH UPR RDG AXIS PERSISTING INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI ON THE
NRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO
RIDE EWD IN THE FAST WLY FLOW ALF BTWN THE WRN RDG AND A CLOSED LO
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU NRN
MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO OVERNGT...WITH SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR IMPACTING MAINLY THE NW CWA TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. SO
MAINTAINED HIER POPS IN THIS AREA BUT TRIMMED BACK PCPN CHCS OVER
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA DUE TO ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING UNDER
MORE PERSISTENT UPR RDG.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN EARLY THIS WEEK FEATURES TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH SHALLOW RIDGES DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK MAIN TROUGHING WILL BE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT CONUS AND OVER WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST CONUS.
TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL THE WEATHER THIS WEEK TAKES A BREAK FROM THE COOL AND ACTIVE
WEATHER SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK. OVERALL...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHORES...TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL IF NOT ABOVE.
OTHER THAN SMALL/ISOLD CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...EXPECT A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF UPR MICHIGAN.
SPLIT PATTERN IN LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT BEGAN TO EMERGE 24 HOURS
AGO IS NOW PRESENT IN UPSTREAM WV LOOP AND MODELS. AT DAYBREAK
MONDAY ONE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS IL/IN WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
IN BTWN WILL BE LIFTING OVER FAR NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR DESTINED TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN FORCING FM A QG
STANDPOINT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR BUT THERE STILL IS
HINT THAT TAIL OF THE IN BTWN WAVE MAY GRAZE UPR MICHIGAN DURING
PEAK HEATING OF AFTN. EXTENT OF HEATING IS QUESTIONABLE AS THERE
MAY BE FAIR AMOUNT OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS IN VCNTY ENHANCED BY SSE
SFC FLOW ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF GREAT LAKES. WHERE THERE IS
LESS CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS WENT FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 AND EVEN INTO
LOWER 70S. OTHERWISE...UPR 60S SHOULD DO. THE WAVE AND SUBTLE
SFC-H85 CONVERGENCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED OVR CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
A LULL EXPECTED...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT...MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE SHORTWAVE COULD BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...JUST HARD TO
TELL RIGHT NOW. ATTN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL BE ON SHORTWAVE IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT EMERGING OUT OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. ECMWF/GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE
OVR CNTRL LK SUPERIOR AND CNTRL CWA BY 18Z. SHARP H7 DRYING NOTED IN
WAKE OF THE WAVE. STARTING TO THINK THAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR THEY
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING WEST AND MAINLY ONLY INTO EARLY-MID
AFTN CNTRL AND EAST. 925-850MB WINDS MORE WESTERLY WITH LOCALIZED
LAKE BREEZES MAY HELP ENHANCE POP-UP SHRA POTENTIAL IN THE EAST.
THOUGH GFS AND NAM SFC DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT LOWER 60S
ARE LIKELY WAY OVERDONE...ECMWF SHOWS MORE REASONABLE DWPNTS IN
THE 40S AND STILL HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THAT AREA DUE TO
THE SHORTWAVE. SLIGHT CHANCES COVER SITUATION WELL BOTH IN TERMS
OF EXPECTED COVERAGE AND ACTUAL CHANCE OF IT OCCURRING AT ALL. QUITE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING MAY END UP DRY ALL AREAS DUE TO THE DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE WAVE. COOLEST TEMPS ON TUESDAY OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH MORE PREVALENT LAKE MODIFIED REGIME. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE LAKE COOLING.
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STAY WELL TO SOUTH OF
UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN...ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT AND
IN THE VCNTY OF H85 WARM FRONT. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA OR
SPRINKLES ON EDGE OF HIGHER H7 DWPNT...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE
FAR SOUTH CWA. DRY ELSEHWERE WITH READINGS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
BUT STAYING IN THE 60S OVER THE NORTH DUE TO STRONGER LAKE BREEZE
SINCE GRADIENT FLOW IS ALREADY LIGHT NORTHERLY. MID CLOUDS AND ANY
LGT SHRA WILL BE FINISHED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ENTIRE SYSTEM DIPS
FARTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM UPR MICHIGAN.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLEST TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR. INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION WILL BE IN THE 70S. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
FOR FRIDAY WITH LGT SOUTH RETURN FLOW. STILL ENOUGH OF ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO KEEP IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORES COOLER. TEMPS INLAND
SHOULD MAKE RUN WELL INTO THE 70S WITH GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DUE TO
DEPARTING RIDGE. POSSIBLE WARMEST SPOTS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR MAY
CRACK 80 DEGREES.
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVES EAST OUT OF ROCKIES.
USED CONSENSUS POPS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF MID CLDS AND SOME -SHRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT
IWD AND CMX THIS AFTN ON ERN EDGE OF DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH LO
PRES IN THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH AN ESE LLVL FLOW MAINTAINING DRY
LLVLS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCREASE TO E UP TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON AS A LO PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BRINGS A SHARPER PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOCALLY
HIER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W...WHERE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. WEAK
HI PRES WILL RETURN AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR TUE THRU
THU. WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
931 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN COVERING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IS
STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. I UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH MID EVENING TO BETTER
REFLECT THE TIMING AND CERTAINTY OF THIS. I LEANED ON THE
LATEST HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE DOING
VERY WELL WITH TIMING THIS MORNING. THUNDER WAS KEPT OUT OF THE
FORECAST BECAUSE THE MODELS GIVE LITTLE TO NO INDICATION OF ANY
INSTABILITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS.
RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH VFR
INITIALLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE INL WHERE THE RAIN WILL TAKE
UNTIL NEAR 18Z TO ARRIVE. AS MORE MODERATE AREAS OF RAIN MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM S TO N AFTER 06Z FOLLOWED BY AREAS OF BR AND IFR
CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TIMING AND
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE NORTHERN EXTENT TO THE RAIN
EXTENDS FROM THE TWIN CITIES NORTHWEST BORDER OF MN AND THE
DAKOTAS. BASED ON PRESENT MOVEMENT...THE RAIN IS PROGGED INTO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AROUND BRD...PINE CITY AROUND 10-11Z AND
INTO THE TWIN PORTS AROUND 14Z. IT SHOULD REACH THE IRON RANGE
AROUND 18Z AND THE BORDERLAND AROUND 21-22Z. THE AREA ALONG A TWIN
PORTS TO WALKER LINE WILL GET 0.33 TO 0.70 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH OTHER AREAS GETTING LESS. IT DID LEAVE
IN THE THUNDER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE AREA. ALSO PUT IN AREAS OF FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE MOISTURE FORM THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST BEGINNING
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
TODAY BUT WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY NIGHT
AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FA. THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE SHORT WAVE AND HAVE HIGHER POPS...LOWER POPS
FURTHER S. DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY...HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDER
MENTION. THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SFC RIDGING TO
CROSS THE FA WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS.
LINGERED A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT. THE HIGH LINGERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS. THE ECMWF IS TRYING TO GENERATE SOME
PCPN...BUT FORCING IS MINIMAL AND HAVE IGNORED THE ECMWF. ON
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES THROUGH MN AND HAVE SOME POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE. RIDGING RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MN ON FRIDAY...A LONG WAVE
TROF REACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON INTRODUCING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN TIER
OF THE FA CLOSEST TO THE TROF. THE TROF MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE FRONT DEPARTS
ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE
HIGH ARRIVES AND HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION AS THE INSTABILITY
IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 47 67 52 / 80 60 20 20
INL 67 50 71 52 / 80 70 20 30
BRD 60 52 73 55 / 90 50 10 10
HYR 63 51 73 54 / 90 60 20 10
ASX 62 47 67 49 / 80 70 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
553 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SWRN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE NAM...SREF AND RAP MODEL ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE FAR WESTERN
PERIPHERY FOR BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY UNTIL 15Z TODAY. HAVE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT AFFECTED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WIND. THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALSO BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH TO THE EAST THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WESTERN SANDHILLS LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. TWEAKED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH INPUT FROM THE NAM12 SFC TEMPS WHICH IS ALSO VERY CLOSE
TO A MET/MAV BLEND.
TIME SECTIONS SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT 5 TO 15 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES OVER ILLINOIS LATE
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE FOUR
CORNER REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT TO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SOUTHWEST RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN/HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY...BRINGING UNSEASONABLE WARM /HOT/ TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR SW NEB WILL PUSH CLOSE TO IF NOT REACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS...THE REST OF WESTERN NEB SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 90S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER NORTH CENTRAL...MID AND UPPER 80S...WITH MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORING FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST IS DRY AT THIS TIME AS TEMPS
ALOFT PROVIDE A STRONG CAP. THE CONCERN IS PW/S WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH...ABOUT 75 PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...AND ACCORDING TO THE NAM
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG LL JET THAT NOSES INTO THE CWA. THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS NOT SHOWING A FAVORABLE JET...THUS THE
DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE DRY LINE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. SW NEB
LIKELY WILL TOP 100 WITH ALL BUT PART OF NORTHERN ZONES TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. RH LEVELS TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE
SHOULD EASILY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER IT IS FAIRLY GREEN
AND WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS...NOT A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A STRONG CAP TO THE SOUTH.
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER
SHOULD STILL SEE SW NEB WARM INTO THE 90S...ELSEWHERE 80S. THEN A
COOL FRONT TO PASS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MODELS IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE RESULTING SLIGHT COOL DOWN WHICH
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD LATER IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGE DRIFTS EAST WITH SOME SHORT WAVES TO RIDE THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...RIDGE RIDERS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
STRATUS REMAINS AS FAR WEST AS KICR AND KONL...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND
CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHWEST UNTIL
14Z- 15Z...THEN NORTHWEST 12G18KT THROUGH 21Z...THEN DIMINISHING TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1021 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM EDT UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG HAS
BURNED OFF THIS MORNING AND A CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS MID LVL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
WEAK HIPRES AT THE SFC AND SHRP RDGG ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THEAREA
DRY TODAY. THE DAY WILL START WITH SOME DENSE FOG AS THE RECENT
RAIN AND CLR SKIES HAVE COMBINED TO SATURATE THE LL THIS MRNG.
STRONG SUNNWILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 70S THIS AFTN AND MAY TOUCH
80 IN THE CLYS OF NEPA AND THE CNTRL SRN TIER. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHRP TROF WITH CLSD LOW APRCHS FOR TNGT THRU TUE. SLOW MVG SYSTEM
HAS A GULF CONNECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE AVBL WHICH SHD RESULT IN A
GOOD SOAKING BEGINNING MON AND CONTG THRU THE SHRT TERM. FVRBL UPR
JET DYNAMICS WITH RR OF A JET OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WRAPPING ARND THE UPR LOW TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE UVM WITH A WELL DEFINED SFC TROF WRM FNT
FEATURE CONNECTED TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOW. GOOD DYNAMICS
SHD ALSO HELP DVLP EMBEDDED CONV LOCALLY INCRSG RAINFALL AMTS AND
RATES. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME FLOOD FLAGS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
PSN OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.
MODEL TEMP GUID IN MARGINAL AGREEMENT FOR THE PD WITH THE GFS/MAV GUID
CONSDIERABLY WRMR THAN THE NAM/MET. BELIEVE THE DEEP CLD CLV AND PCPN
WILL KEEP THE TMPS FROM RCHG THE MAV LVLS BUT DID GO SLGTLY WRMR
THAN THE MET GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE SFC AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE PERSISTENT FEATURES OF
NOTE FOR OUR FA LTR THIS WEEK...WILL BE AN UPR-LVL TROUGH ACRS
SERN CANADA...AND AN UPR-LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN AND S-CNTRL
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD NEWD
WITH TIME...A NW FLOW PATN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL.
OCNL NRN STREAM WVS WILL TRAVERSE THIS FLOW PATN...AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD -SHRA DURG THE MID-WEEK PD. ATTM...IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORCED LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SUPPLY MAY
RESIDE S OF OUR CWA...BUT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...BOTH WPC AND
NWP CONSENSUS POINT TWDS A CHC OF SHWRS...AND WE`VE ACCEPTED
THIS...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY MEDIUM RANGE UNCERTAINTIES.
FROM FRI ONWARD...MODEL/WPC PROGS SHOW SFC RIDGING COMING IN FROM
THE W...ALG WITH BLDG HTS ALOFT. THUS...DRY WX IS STILL INDICATED
IN THE GRIDS TWDS NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH NO STG TEMP SIGNALS DEPICTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WE WENT
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR MID-JUNE (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S...AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND SOME FOG/MVFR CIGS UP
ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KELM WITH BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS UNTIL NEAR 12Z...THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY 13Z
AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 14Z. BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING
HOW DENSE THE FOG IS...SEE NO REASON TO EXPECT ANYTHING FASTER
THAN THIS.
DESPITE SOME FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING VFR WILL CONTINUE AT KITH
AND KBGM AS THE FOG HAS ALREADY BURNED OFF AND WITH THE STRONG SUN
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREEP UP THE HILL. AT KAVP WILL CONTINUE
MVFR VSBYS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEY.
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOG IS LESS A CONCERN NOW WITH MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN. BASED ON OBS TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARD 12Z AT KAVP...AND AFTER 12Z AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.
AT THIS TIME ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAVP WITH THE
ONSET OF THE LIGHT RAIN.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LGT THROUGH THE PD (MAINLY AOB 5 KT).
OUTLOOK...
MON AND TUE...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY...SPCLY FROM MON EVE
ONWARD...AS SHWRS DVLP OVER THE AREA.
WED AND THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...BMW/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIPRES AT THE SFC AND SHRP RDGG ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THEAREA
DRY TODAY. THE DAY WILL START WITH SOME DENSE FOG AS THE RECENT
RAIN AND CLR SKIES HAVE COMBINED TO SATURATE THE LL THIS MRNG.
STRONG SUNNWILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 70S THIS AFTN AND MAY TOUCH
80 IN THE CLYS OF NEPA AND THE CNTRL SRN TIER. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHRP TROF WITH CLSD LOW APRCHS FOR TNGT THRU TUE. SLOW MVG SYSTEM
HAS A GULF CONNECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE AVBL WHICH SHD RESULT IN A
GOOD SOAKING BEGINNING MON AND CONTG THRU THE SHRT TERM. FVRBL UPR
JET DYNAMICS WITH RR OF A JET OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WRAPPING ARND THE UPR LOW TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE UVM WITH A WELL DEFINED SFC TROF WRM FNT
FEATURE CONNECTED TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOW. GOOD DYNAMICS
SHD ALSO HELP DVLP EMBEDDED CONV LOCALLY INCRSG RAINFALL AMTS AND
RATES. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME FLOOD FLAGS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
PSN OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.
MODEL TEMP GUID IN MARGINAL AGREEMENT FOR THE PD WITH THE GFS/MAV GUID
CONSDIERABLY WRMR THAN THE NAM/MET. BELIEVE THE DEEP CLD CLV AND PCPN
WILL KEEP THE TMPS FROM RCHG THE MAV LVLS BUT DID GO SLGTLY WRMR
THAN THE MET GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE SFC AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE PERSISTENT FEATURES OF
NOTE FOR OUR FA LTR THIS WEEK...WILL BE AN UPR-LVL TROUGH ACRS
SERN CANADA...AND AN UPR-LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN AND S-CNTRL
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD NEWD
WITH TIME...A NW FLOW PATN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL.
OCNL NRN STREAM WVS WILL TRAVERSE THIS FLOW PATN...AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD -SHRA DURG THE MID-WEEK PD. ATTM...IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORCED LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SUPPLY MAY
RESIDE S OF OUR CWA...BUT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...BOTH WPC AND
NWP CONSENSUS POINT TWDS A CHC OF SHWRS...AND WE`VE ACCEPTED
THIS...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY MEDIUM RANGE UNCERTAINTIES.
FROM FRI ONWARD...MODEL/WPC PROGS SHOW SFC RIDGING COMING IN FROM
THE W...ALG WITH BLDG HTS ALOFT. THUS...DRY WX IS STILL INDICATED
IN THE GRIDS TWDS NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH NO STG TEMP SIGNALS DEPICTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WE WENT
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR MID-JUNE (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S...AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND SOME FOG/MVFR CIGS UP
ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KELM WITH BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS UNTIL NEAR 12Z...THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY 13Z
AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY 14Z. BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING
HOW DENSE THE FOG IS...SEE NO REASON TO EXPECT ANYTHING FASTER
THAN THIS.
DESPITE SOME FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING VFR WILL CONTINUE AT KITH
AND KBGM AS THE FOG HAS ALREADY BURNED OFF AND WITH THE STRONG SUN
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREEP UP THE HILL. AT KAVP WILL CONTINUE
MVFR VSBYS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEY.
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOG IS LESS A CONCERN NOW WITH MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN. BASED ON OBS TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARD 12Z AT KAVP...AND AFTER 12Z AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.
AT THIS TIME ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAVP WITH THE
ONSET OF THE LIGHT RAIN.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LGT THROUGH THE PD (MAINLY AOB 5 KT).
OUTLOOK...
MON AND TUE...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY...SPCLY FROM MON EVE
ONWARD...AS SHWRS DVLP OVER THE AREA.
WED AND THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE NEXT WEEK. DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT FROM PRESENT 1.5 INCH RANGE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY
THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS INCREASES. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE FRONT AND ALSO OVER OUR WESTERN-MOST
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST IN VICINITY TO A DEVELOPING THERMAL
TROUGH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID 80S MOST PLACES FOR
HIGHS TODAY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY SUMMER-LIKE FEEL TO THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND 70 MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST MON MORNING WILL MOVE EAST PUSHING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL POOL
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES
REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS CARRIES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MINOR PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN H5 TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON TUES
MOVING OFF SHORE BY LATE TUES. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ON TUES BEFORE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. BEST CONVERGENCE TUES
AFTN WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF SHORE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW MON INTO TUES WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TUES AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW BY TUES EVENING
ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE
CONVECTION MAY END EARLIER ON TUES WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 1.5 INCHES BY TUES EVENING.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MON THROUGH TUES WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 65 AND 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH CLOUDS AND PCP IN THE FORECAST. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ON MON WITH LOWER TEMPS IN SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUES WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER. IF DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND SUNSHINE SNEAKS OUT ON TUES ALONG WITH
A GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPS MAY SHOOT UP TOWARD
90.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH UP THROUGH THE INLAND
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL HELP TO BACK THE SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. DEEPER W-NW FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AS RIDGE REACHES UP INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM SOME CU BUILD UP AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTN...WILL SEE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO KEEP A RAIN FREE
FORECAST FOR WED. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AND SUNSHINE WILL PRODUCE VERY WARM TEMPS ON WED.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 90S ON WED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THURS. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT A VERY MOIST OR UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO
THE 90S MOST PLACES AS SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL EARLIER IN THE DAY. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COME
LATE THURS AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THEREFORE
EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT.
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL VALUES RUNNING IN THE
MID 80S FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL IN THE MID 60S MOST PLACES IN AN OVERALL DRIER AIR
MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH CALM WINDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...VSBYS
ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DROP INLAND DUE TO FOG. EXPECT PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLBT AND KFLO BETWEEN 07-11Z THIS MORNING.
THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE INHIBITED FOG
FORMATION THUS FAR...BUT MVFR CIGS 1-2KFT COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OFFSHORE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
COASTAL TERMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTN
WITH INLAND SEA BREEZE PROGRESSION AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY WITH SCT/BKN CU AND PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 15KFT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM FROM PRESENT CONDITIONS. A STEADY S TO SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS AT
PRESENT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL STAY IN A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THESE S-SW WINDS UP TO UP TO 15 TO 20 KT MON AND CLOSE TO 20 KT
MON NIGHT WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS MAY
TOP THE 6 FT MARK REACHING SCA CRITERIA IN OUTER WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-SW THROUGH LATE TUES INTO EARLY
WED AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT TUES BUT WINDS WILL VEER BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD BY EARLY WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW THROUGH WED AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. OVERALL EXPECT SW
WINDS 10 KTS OR SO TO START THE DAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS RISE AGAIN LATE WED THROUGH THURS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THURS. WNA SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AROUND 6 TO
7 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT THURS BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO
THE NORTH BEHIND FRONT. BY FRIDAY GREATER OFF SHORE NW TO N FLOW
WILL DIMINISH DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KTS ALLOWING SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS BUT STILL REMAINING 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
12Z DATA INDICATES THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OVER. STILL A COLD POOL ALOFT OVER KANSAS
THAT WILL SWING DOWN OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS LOOKS STABLE...BUT AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CHANGE
THAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...MAINLY EAST. WILL LOWER POPS A
LITTLE. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 86 70 92 73 / 10 20 10 0
FSM 83 68 91 70 / 40 10 10 0
MLC 85 70 91 72 / 20 10 10 0
BVO 84 65 90 70 / 10 20 10 0
FYV 79 63 86 67 / 40 20 10 0
BYV 78 65 86 69 / 50 20 10 0
MKO 83 68 91 71 / 20 20 10 0
MIO 84 65 88 71 / 40 20 10 0
F10 85 70 92 72 / 20 10 10 0
HHW 87 69 91 72 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
801 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GRT LKS ARND NEXT THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES THIS AM...THE RESULT OF A CALM
WIND AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC
RH SUGGESTS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 12Z. WAA DEVELOPING ON WEST SIDE
OF RETREATING RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
OHIO AND SW PA AT 09Z. THE LATEST RAP OUTPUT...WHICH IS PICKING UP
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LYR OF MOISTURE NR 700MB...SUGGESTS THIS
BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP A BIT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PA LATER THIS AM. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SC MTNS.
8H TEMPS SURGING TO NR 15C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GO SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS UNDER PTSUNNY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD APPROACHING UPPER LOW
OVR THE MIDWEST. VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MDL GUIDANCE THRU LATE
MONDAY...ALL OF WHICH TRACK UPPER LOW EASTWARD TOWARD PA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LL JET/PWATS WILL
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE IN
THE DAY BASED ON GEFS/SREF OUTPUT.
HAVE PLAYED DOWN THE CHC OF THUNDER MONDAY...AS OVERCAST SKIES AND
ONGOING RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
00Z GEFS MEAN CAPES AOB 500 J/KG. A BLEND OF OPER AND ENSEMBLE
QPF SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL MDL RUNS PRODUCE
LOCAL AMTS ARND 2 INCHES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PWATS
2-3SD ABV NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA MON EVENING...CAUSING HEAVY SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER...SCT ADDITIONAL SHRA AND POSS TSRA SHOULD BE IN
STORE FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...AS 5H TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ARND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH NORMAL TIMING ISSUES REMAIN...BULK OF MDLS TRACK SFC LOW
SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY...SO HAVE RAMPED UP THE CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE MDL DATA TO SUPPORT DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDS ARRIVING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS SE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VALLEY FOG IN PLACES THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS
CONDITIONS TRANSITION BACK TO VFR.
WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ON WEST SIDE OF RIDGE IS PUSHING
AN AREA OF BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...BUT THIS
CLOUD LAYER WILL EVAPORATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY LATE DAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
RESULTING IN SOME INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LATE DAY
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS. DIDN/T MENTION IN TAFS DUE
TO LOW COVERAGE AREA.
AREA OF RAIN BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS FOR PA. LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS ARRIVING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. CIGS/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING BY 04-08Z.
MON-TUES...NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ESP MON-MON NIGHT/. SCT PM TSRA.
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE.
WED-THU...SCT SHOWERS...BUT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION TODAY
THAT WILL FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NOT FIRING QUITE AS QUICKLY
AS EXPECTED THIS MRNG OVER OUR CWFA THOUGH HEALTHY CELLS ARE MOVING
THRU THE AUGUSTA GA AREA. HAVE NOT EVEN SEEN CU DEVELOPMENT YET SO
TRIMMED BACK POPS GREATLY THRU NOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
UPWARDS OF 500 J SBCAPE OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT ATTM...BUT POOR
LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE THE SFC PER 12Z FFC RAOB MAY BE CAPPING
THINGS OFF. 12Z NAM AND RECENT RAP RUNS SHOW ABUNDANT CONVECTION BY
MIDDAY WITH AN EARLIER THAN USUAL PEAK IN CAPES...DIMINISHING
GREATLY BY MID AFTN POSSIBLY INDICATING THE MODELS THINK THE EARLY
ACTIVITY WILL USE UP THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS AS WELL AS THE REMAINING 500-800 J CAPES SHOWN LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAINTAINED LATE AFTN PEAK POPS FROM PREV PACKAGE.
ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPTS PER LATEST OBS...ALLOWING FOR FASTER WARMING
IN THE GENERALLY CLEARER THAN ANTICIPATED SKIES THIS AM.
PREV DISCUSSION...
AS OF 300 AM...DEEP DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSE
UPR LOW TODAY...BUT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT ENTERS THE UPR MS
VALLEY. DEEP SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PERSIST ACRS THE SE
STATES AND ADVECT PWATS OF 125-175% OF NORMAL ATOP THE CWFA THRU THE
NEAR TERM. THE MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPR SUPPORT SHUD RESULT IN
SOLID COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...WITH POPS
RAMPING UP FROM SW TO NE. FCST SNDGS SHOW 1500-2000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED
CAPE TODAY...ESP IN THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE OP MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION FIRING BY NOON ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) HINT THAT DEBRIS
CIRRUS FROM GULF CONVECTION WILL DELAY THE ONSET HERE TILL MID AFTN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ALL ZONES TODAY. GOOD NEWS
IS HIGH FREEZING LVLS AND MOIST PROFILES SHUD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.
THERE MAY AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS AFTN...WITH DOWNBURST
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
MOST SPOTS WITH THE HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT (INCLUDING THE CAMS) ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
AT LEAST LIKELY POPS LATE THIS EVENING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS
A SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ROUND THE UPSTREAM TROF AND CROSS THE AREA
FROM THE SW. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND GFS MUCAPE FIELDS AND THE FCST
SNDGS...CAPE APPEARS TO REMAIN MARGINAL IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...850 MB FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS...ESP IN THE
PIEDMONT AND BULK SHEAR RAMPS UP TO 35-40 KTS AS WELL...WHICH COULD
SUSTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE...AS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS...WITH THE INCREASED BULK SHEAR AND UPR SUPPORT. DESPITE
HIGH POPS AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...HYDRO THREAT STILL LOOKS
TO BE TOO ISOLD TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. NONE OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAIN LOOK HIGH ENUF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CA
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY MIGHT BE MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MY IMPRESSION OF THE
MODEL DATA IS THAT AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BE A
BIT DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. THAT BRINGS SOME
DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING
PEAK HEATING AND SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FCST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES. INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BUT THERE WILL
BE NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE CONVECTION...AND WE MAY SEE SOME
ORGANIZATION THANKS TO A SW 30 KT 850 MB JET. SO...POP WAS TAKEN UP
INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON...
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BACK INTO THE CHC RANGE MONDAY EVENING. THREAT
WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DEEP MOISTURE...BUT UNIMPRESSIVE BUOYANCY.
TEMPS WERE NUDGED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN BECAUSE OF SOME
INTERESTING MODEL DIFFERENCES. A CHANCE WAS KEPT OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
TUESDAY COULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK...IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
MEANWHILE...THE NAM LINGERS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE FCST AREA
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD PRECIP...PROBABLY BECAUSE
OF MUCH IMPROVED BUOYANCY. AM MORE INCLINED TO KEEP THE FCST CLOSER
TO THE GFS WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...FAVORING A
BELOW CLIMO POP. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SRN PLAINS...THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE BE IN THE MCS TRACK?
WE SEE THIS USUALLY AT SOME POINT EVERY JUNE...AS DISTURBANCES MOVE
OVER TOP A SRN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND THEN TRIGGER MCS DEVELOPMENT
WHICH ROLLS DOWN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC.
THIS MIGHT HAPPEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...
WHILE THE NAM HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR BUT WITH SLOWER TIMING THAT
KEEPS IT TO OUR NW BY DAYBREAK. WILL LEAVE TUESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT
WILL NOT GIVE UP ENTIRELY ON SOME PRECIP BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SUNDAY...MCS CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY...
AS THE MOSGUIDE TOPS OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WHICH AT FIRST BLUSH
SEEMS OUTRAGEOUS. NOT INCLINED AT THIS POINT TO RAISE TEMPS TEN
DEGREES AS 850MB FLOW IS NOT THAT STRONG FROM WEST. EXPECT SOME DEEP
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD PREVENT FULL SUN...SO I AM CONTENT FOR NOW TO MERELY NUDGE
UPWARD A CATEGORY OR SO. THE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT FRONT COMING IN ON
THURSDAY...PERHAPS WITH A LINEAR MCS FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. STILL GOOD INDICATION THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW AND N FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LOWERED SOME PRECIP CHANCES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
ACRS THE REGION STARTING AROUND MIDDAY AND LINGERING WELL INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE FOCUSED ON DIURNAL PEAK IN ACTIVITY WITH A TEMPO
0920/0924. VCSH SURROUNDING THAT PEAK TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER PROBS
BEFORE AND AFTER. A TS IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION PRIOR TO
20Z. BEFORE THEN...MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME CELLS IN THE AREA...SO HAVE
A TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 18Z TO 21Z. THEREAFTER...THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION MAY STAY TO THE WEST ACRS THE MTNS. GUIDANCE CONVERGING
ON WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND SOME FOG DEVELOPING WITH WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A
DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING THRU THE SC MIDLANDS WILL PRODUCE
SLY GUSTS AT KCLT AROUND MIDDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
CLUSTER.
ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN CONCERN IS GOING TO BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACRS THE REGION STARTING BY EARLY AFTN...AND LINGERING WELL INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE TYPICAL PEAK HEATING
HOURS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACRS THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...ESP FOR KAVL. STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE RAIN-COOLED AIR AND CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF
THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 83%
KGSP HIGH 97% HIGH 94% HIGH 90% MED 73%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 97% HIGH 94% HIGH 94% MED 73%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 91% MED 77% MED 70%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
544 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR ABUNDANT
STRATUS DEVELOPING ON THE CAPROCK IN A MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME.
PATTERN RECOGNITION DOES NOT INSPIRE OPTIMISM THAT THESE CLOUDS
WILL BUDGE ANYTIME SOON AS E-SE WINDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING. RECENT HRRR RUNS LOOK CREDIBLE IN KEEPING STRATUS
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH 16Z OR SO UNTIL THIS LAYER BEGINS
ERODING FROM THE OUTSIDE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FOG ESPECIALLY IF
ALREADY LOW STRATUS LOWERS EVEN FURTHER...BUT RAP SOUNDINGS ARE MORE
INDICATIVE OF STRATUS AND KEEP THE SURFACE LAYER MIXED. TYPICALLY
WE SEE FOG IN SUCH SETUPS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK...SO IF THIS MATERIALIZES WE PLAN TO ADDRESS THIS WITH
NOWCASTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGH TEMPS NEED TO BE TRIMMED
A BIT SOME AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR DELAYED INSOLATION...BUT WILL
DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO MAKE THIS CALL.
&&
.AVIATION...
RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR STRATUS AT LBB IN A
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL LATER
THIS MORNING ONCE SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN THIN AND BEGIN ERODING
THIS STUBBORN STRATUS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT VFR CONDS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO RESUME UNTIL AROUND 17Z AS RECENT RAINFALL IS ADDING
TO KEEP THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATED EVEN LONGER THAN NORMAL. FOG
THREAT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP IF STRATUS BOTTOMS OUT ANY FURTHER. CDS WILL ESCAPE THIS
LOW CLOUD AND FOG THREAT COMPLETELY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY
SELY WINDS AROUND 11 KNOTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI
RIVER MANAGED TO DEAL MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF NOCTURNAL TSTRMS TO THE
CWA AFTER A LARGE MCS CLIPPED OUR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTS PRE-
DAWN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXIT OUR CWA BY 12Z. THEREAFTER...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY AS LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
FILTERS IN FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ADD TO THIS BUILDING
HEIGHT FIELDS AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UNWELCOME RETURN TO DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
IS IN STORE.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY IS HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF
OVERNIGHT RAINS...SOME OF WHICH PROVED QUITE HEAVY ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK. AFTER NOCTURNAL PRECIP FRI NIGHT STUNTED MAX TEMPS ON
THE CAPROCK BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES...WILL GIVE OUR SOIL MOISTURE THE
BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT AND KEEP TODAY`S TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE AREA WIDE AND DISMISS THE HOTTEST MET NUMBERS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS
THE GFS SHOWS OR THROUGH FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS TO 100-102 OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A BIT COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH WHICH IS A BIT UNUSUAL
CONSIDERING THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND
HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE
REGION SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME DOWN BACK IN THE LOWER 90S
SOUTH PLAINS/UPPER 90S ROLLING PLAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THIS WEEK.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 90 65 98 64 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 89 66 98 66 98 / 10 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 89 67 99 67 98 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 91 67 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 91 68 98 68 97 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 93 67 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 91 68 98 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 70 101 72 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
SPUR 92 69 98 71 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 93 70 100 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/99/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
956 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND
WEAKEN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID AIR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS TODAY...WARM ADVECTIONAND
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
THIS INCREASE AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT GSO AND RNK WHERE
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED NEARLY .25 INCHES SINCE LAST EVENING.
MUCH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE TWO AREAS WHERE CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR HIGHEST ARE IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THE SECOND AREA IS
NW NC AND FAR SW VA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
PER THE HRRR MODELS...DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IN THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AND MORE PULSE PER WEAK WINDS ALOFT
ALTHOUGH IF MORE HEATING DOES DEVELOP THEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT SOME WIND THREAT PER HIGH DCAPES UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE ANY EVENING CONVECTION WIND DOWN SOME WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
RESIDUAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST HEADS EAST.
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SATURATED/JUICY OVERNIGHT AND WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SE...EXPECT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE BETTER BAND OF LIFT ARRIVES
ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER TIMING OFF GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT
SO PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY POPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THE SREF DEPICTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIP LATE. QUITE A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 60S AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER EARLY DURING THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.(WILL ADD
MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY TO HWO AND MONITOR FOR
FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER SATURATED GROUNDS.)
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART THE AREA WITH THE
FRONT... HOWEVER WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY WHILE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WITH RICHER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES CLOSE TO ADJMAV FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. PLAYED LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ON
MILD SIDE FROM UPPER 50S IN THE WEST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO MID 80S
IN THE EAST. LOWS TUESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE A RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH MODELS HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST AND INTO OUR
AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE QUICK PROGRESS EAST...PASSING FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
SIMILAR IN THE SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TIMING AND THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW...WITH THE GFS ONLY A FEW HOURS FASTER. AT ANY RATE...AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION...
BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
FOR DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE DURING NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MIXED CANOPY OF STRATO-CU/AC CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. EXPECT HEATING/MIXING
TO GRADUALLY CAUSE EARLY VFR CIGS AND PATCHY MVFR FOG TO MIX OUT
TO A SCTD/BKN CU LAYER BETWEEN 4-6K FEET BY AFTERNOON.
OTRW HEIGHTS INCREASE ALOFT LATER TODAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTH FROM THE GULF WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN PWATS BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EPSCLY MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN JUST
WHERE MORE CONCENTRATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP WITH MODELS VARYING FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST TO A SCATTERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
EVENING. GIVEN CURRENT PUSH OF MOISTURE AND FORECAST INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL THETA-E WILL INCLUDE A VCTS OR VCSH MENTION AT MOST
SITES FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR NOW.
APPEARS THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MAY INCREASE
SHOWER COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ESPCLY ON MONDAY WHEN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE MVFR TO AREAS OF IFR.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. EACH SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
DEVELOPMENT OF NIGHT TIME VALLEY AND RIVER FOG. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO VFR BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT
BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING MORE SUB-VFR IN
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS/NF
AVIATION...JH/KM/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
606 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TONIGHT IS PEGGING DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES AND
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY IT.
THE INITIAL RAIN BAND HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY
LATE MORNING. THE NEXT MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED CHANNEL OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850-925MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE 09.05 HRRR AND 09.00Z ARW/NMM RUNS ALL
ARE SHOWING THE NORTHERN END OF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE REDEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY STARTS TO INCREASE.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY DUE TO WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR
AND LOW INSTABILITY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADOES. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ON UP TO THE
INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW. THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE FASTER
MOVING THAN WHAT YOU WOULD TYPICALLY SEE WITH NST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
TODAY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH 03Z.
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILL IN/WEAKEN TONIGHT AS
WELL AS DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL MCS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST...A POOL OF WARM
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C PLUS NOSING UP INTO IOWA. THE
QUESTION GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS WITH WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP AND WHETHER IT WILL EXTEND UP INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA. THE 09.00Z NAM IS THE STRONGEST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH
THIS LLJ AND BRINGS THE NOSE RIGHT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER 09.00Z GUIDANCE PAINTS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG/NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS ADVERTISED WITH THE NAM. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND TRANSITION TO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. DETAILS WILL UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SCENARIO THAT WILL INCLUDE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.
BEYOND THIS...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS RIDGING
SETS UP FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM COMES IN
ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCT SHRA AND ISOLD T ACTIVITY TODAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FROM VFR EARLY THIS MORNING INTO MVFR RANGE IN THE
15-16Z TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS INTO NORTHERN IL. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT/LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. PLAN ON
FURTHER DETERIORATION INTO LOWER-END IFR/LIFR VIS AND CIGS BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
.UPDATE...
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE TEMPS BASED ON SOME MORNING
SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUD COVERAGE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...TIMING OF INCREASING POPS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED
ON RECENT HI-RES MODEL RUNS AND SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS THE GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD. PWATS ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS ARE IN THE
1.8-2.0 INCH RANGE THEREFORE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUITE
EFFICIENT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
LARGELY ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 436 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
WITH THE CWA BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AREA IS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA
AND WILL MAKE FOR A RAIN FILLED SUNDAY. ALREADY HAVE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING EXPANDING THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND BY AFTERNOON EXPECT DEVELOPMENT ALSO ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH EXCEPT FOR BEING
SLIGHTLY SLOW INITIALLY ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
SHOWERS...APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY IS STILL DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE SHEAR IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL HELP TO PLAY A ROLE IN
SUPPRESSING SEVERE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH POPS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST FOR NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST IS FOR BETTER
CHANCES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. STILL LIKELY POPS IN FOR
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE CWA AND WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A DRY SLOT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY SO APPEARS MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FOR THE MOST PART AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSELY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING.
11
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA PROVIDING FOR AN ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM RISK INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE POPS HIGHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN THE DAYTIME...CERTAINLY AN ODDITY
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FIRST SHORTWAVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER TRANSITIONING TO JUST MID
RANGE SCATTERED FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS
OUT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN LATE TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH. GFS SHOWS POTENT DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ON THU
WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH AND ALLOWS A WEAK
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SUPPORT AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WILL RESULT IN HIGH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THU EVENING.
AS FRONT CLEARS...EVEN DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER. WE WILL STILL SEE STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE BUT POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END
CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY. PRECIP
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MAJORITY OF FORECAST PERIOD AND CIGS LOOK
TO GET TO MVFR NEAR 2500 FT AFTER 04Z AND IFR AROUND 700 FT FROM
08-15Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE DAY MONDAY
WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON THE DECREASE FROM THE NW AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SE THROUGH THIS EVENING... THEN SHIFT TO
SW AFTER ABOUT 08Z...STAYING LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT HIGHER
MAGNITUDES POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND INITIAL WINDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
ATLANTA 81 67 82 70 / 90 80 60 30
BLAIRSVILLE 80 65 76 65 / 90 80 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 83 68 83 70 / 90 80 60 50
COLUMBUS 84 69 87 73 / 90 70 60 30
GAINESVILLE 81 66 80 68 / 90 80 60 50
MACON 85 70 87 71 / 90 70 60 30
ROME 83 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 81 68 83 69 / 90 80 60 30
VIDALIA 87 72 88 74 / 70 60 60 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
14Z/9AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1003MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS.
ALOFT...VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM IS EVIDENT AS CLOSED 500MB LOW
IS ANALYZED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AS WELL. TWO DISTINCT SHORT-WAVES
ARE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW...WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND THE SECOND FURTHER NORTHWEST
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER-MAKER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER TODAY...AS IT INTERACTS
WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13Z HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AND GENERALLY KEEPS CONVECTION OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC AND
EARLY MODEL DATA...HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...EXCEPT LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ARRIVE ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NE KILX CWA AROUND CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PEAK TIME FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM. HAVE THEREFORE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE
EVENING...THEN ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ZONE UPDATE HAS
ALREADY BEEN SENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...REACHING KSPI
BY 20Z. LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL THEN PROGRESS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BASED ON
HRRR AND 4KM WRF...IT APPEARS BULK OF CONVECTION WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 03Z. WILL THEREFORE CARRY 4-HOUR
TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT ALL TAF SITES...BEGINNING AT KSPI AT
20Z AND ENDING AT KCMI BY 03Z. ONCE THE CONVECTION CLEARS THE
AREA...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL VEER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT ONCE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH UPPER-LOW OVERHEAD...BKN CU AT
AROUND 6000FT WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY. WILL MENTION VCSH AS
WELL...AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
00Z MODELS CONTINUE SLOWER TRENDS WITH WEATHER SYSTEM TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND TRENDED FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ALOFT A 565 DM 500 MB LOW WAS OVER NE NEBRASKA. ASSOCIATED 1003
MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/SD BORDER AND DEEPENING A BIT
HAS WARM FRONT THRU CENTRAL PARTS OF IA/IL SOUTH OF I-74 AND COLD
FRONT WAS OVER FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WERE
OVER CENTRAL IA AND WESTERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER
CENTRAL IL WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH SSE WINDS LESS THAN 10
MPH. LIGHT FOG/HAZE AT LAWRENCEVILLE WITH VSBY OF 4 MILES SO FOG
NOT AS EXTENSIVE IN SE IL AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ESE ACROSS IA
TODAY AND TO SOUTH OF LAKE MI BY MIDDAY MONDAY. COLD FRONT TO
TRACK EAST OVER IL DURING TONIGHT AND INTO INDIANA MONDAY. HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER SOUTH OF LINCOLN FOR 15% RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...5% RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND 2% RISK OF A
TORNADO. MUCAPES ARE 1000-1500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AND WIND SHEAR IS LOWER THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND WARMEST OVER EASTERN IL
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH.
HAVE 60-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
IN THE EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO 30-50% MONDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
NE AREAS. THIS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF OVER IL AND SPC HAS 5%
RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN FAR SE IL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCE FURTHER SE IN KY AND THE TN VALLEY.
A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO REGION. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED QUICKER WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO IL TUE
AND WED AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMER TOO SO HAVE WARMER TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUE AND UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F WED.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT OVER
NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE QUAD CITIES. SHORT WAVE AND POSSIBLE MCS
RIDGING OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND
BRINGINGS HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO NORTHERN IL WITH SE IL
LIKELY STAYING DRY OR JUST SLIGHT CHANCES WED. LOW PRESSURE TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT DRIVING A COLD FRONT SE
THROUGH IL AND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO REGION WED
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU OVER EASTERN IL. MAY HAVE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL IL WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT. TEMPS COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL THU BUT WARM BACK UP BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO IL. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDGING OVER TOP OF
RIDGE COULD RETURN CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
AREAS NEXT WEEKEND.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
A COUPLE OF ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS ARE AHEAD AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER IOWA PUSHES TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THE LOW THE LOW WILL DEPART ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NW IOWA. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY PROPAGATING NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FOUND IN A TROUGH OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI.
GIVEN THESE TWO RADAR TRENDS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHOT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH AS THE PRECIP OVER KENTUCKY ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE SECOND SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES AFTER 00Z AS
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES.
GOOD LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS AN AREA OF SHRA
WITH TSRA PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
SATURATION...PARTICULARLY DURING BY 06Z TIME FRAME.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS...PARTICULARLY EARLY ON IN
THE EAST AS THE TSRA AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND ACROSS
THE AREA AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS N MONDAY. GFS
AND NAM DEPICT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA PUSHING THROUGH
AND EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD CYCLONIC
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS STEEP
LAPSE RATES BY 18Z MONDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. CAPE
REMAINS IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ONLY IN
THE LOWER 70S. THUS GIVEN THE FLOW...THE FORCING AND DAYTIME
HEATING SOME SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE TO THE MAVMOS POPS HERE GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THIS SET UP. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGHS AS GOOD CLOUD COVER COULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE PASSING LOW.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON MONDAY AND AS GOOD RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLE AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME UNREACHABLE. AGAIN THERE IS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OF INDIANA BY LATE TUESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
ONCE AGAIN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HINT EVEN WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
700MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 12C...WHICH IS USUALLY A PRETTY DARN GOOD
CAP. THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WARMER EACH DAY.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE AN UPPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKER SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS
BEING VERY QUICK TO DRY US OUT...WILL DROP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WEEKEND. BUT THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST.
FOR NOW LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER HPC SOLUTION.
WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST PERIODS...EXCEPT A TAD WARMER FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THERE WILL BE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 100000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MVFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH 05Z OR SO...THEN MVFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MORNING MONDAY.
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TAF
SITES IN THE FIRST QUARTER OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE LINES. TRIED TO TIME WITH TEMPOS THE
BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
CONVECTION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.
AFTER THE LINES MOVE THROUGH SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO MID MORNING MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN.
PREDOMINANT MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
IN. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 17Z OR SO.
OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10KT FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
A COUPLE OF ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS ARE AHEAD AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER IOWA PUSHES TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THE LOW THE LOW WILL DEPART ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NW IOWA. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY PROPAGATING NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FOUND IN A TROUGH OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI.
GIVEN THESE TWO RADAR TRENDS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHOT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH AS THE PRECIP OVER KENTUCKY ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE SECOND SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES AFTER 00Z AS
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES.
GOOD LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS AN AREA OF SHRA
WITH TSRA PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
SATURATION...PARTICULARLY DURING BY 06Z TIME FRAME.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS...PARTICULARLY EARLY ON IN
THE EAST AS THE TSRA AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND ACROSS
THE AREA AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS N MONDAY. GFS
AND NAM DEPICT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA PUSHING THROUGH
AND EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD CYCLONIC
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS STEEP
LAPSE RATES BY 18Z MONDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. CAPE
REMAINS IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ONLY IN
THE LOWER 70S. THUS GIVEN THE FLOW...THE FORCING AND DAYTIME
HEATING SOME SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE TO THE MAVMOS POPS HERE GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THIS SET UP. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGHS AS GOOD CLOUD COVER COULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE PASSING LOW.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON MONDAY AND AS GOOD RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLE AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME UNREACHABLE. AGAIN THERE IS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OF INDIANA BY LATE TUESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
ONCE AGAIN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HINT EVEN WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
700MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 12C...WHICH IS USUALLY A PRETTY DARN GOOD
CAP. THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WARMER EACH DAY.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE AN UPPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKER SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS
BEING VERY QUICK TO DRY US OUT...WILL DROP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WEEKEND. BUT THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST.
FOR NOW LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER HPC SOLUTION.
WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST PERIODS...EXCEPT A TAD WARMER FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THERE WILL BE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 092100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
DELAYED MENTION OF THUNDER AT KIND AS LATEST LIGHTNING CHART SHOWS
FEW IF ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT THE SITE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER THOUGH SO KEPT
VCSH MENTION. BROKEN LINE OF TSRA STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
AROUND 03Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR MOST OTHER TIMES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ACROSS KENTUCKY. RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION VCTS
AT KIND AND KBMG AFTER 21Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MID TO LATE EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME IMPROVEMENT
BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS CEILINGS RISE ABOVE 3 THOUSAND FEET.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WINDS WILL BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 12 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JH/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
257 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
A COUPLE OF ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS ARE AHEAD AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER IOWA PUSHES TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THE LOW THE LOW WILL DEPART ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NW IOWA. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY PROPAGATING NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FOUND IN A TROUGH OVER EASTERN MISSOURI.
GIVEN THESE TWO RADAR TRENDS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHOT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH AS THE PRECIP OVER KENTUCKY ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS GOOD LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE SECOND SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES AFTER 00Z AS
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES.
GOOD LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS AN AREA OF SHRA
WITH TSRA PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
SATURATION...PARTICULARLY DURING BY 06Z TIME FRAME.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS...PARTICULARLY EARLY ON IN
THE EAST AS THE TSRA AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND ACROSS
THE AREA AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS N MONDAY. GFS
AND NAM DEPICT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA PUSHING THROUGH
AND EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD CYCLONIC
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS STEEP
LAPSE RATES BY 18Z MONDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. CAPE
REMAINS IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ONLY IN
THE LOWER 70S. THUS GIVEN THE FLOW...THE FORCING AND DAYTIME
HEATING SOME SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
STICK CLOSE TO THE TO THE MAVMOS POPS HERE GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THIS SET UP. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS WILL USE A BLEND ON HIGHS AS GOOD CLOUD COVER COULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE PASSING LOW.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON MONDAY AND AS GOOD RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLE AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME UNREACHABLE. AGAIN THERE IS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OF INDIANA BY LATE TUESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
ONCE AGAIN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HINT EVEN WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
700MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 12C...WHICH IS USUALLY A PRETTY DARN GOOD
CAP. THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WARMER EACH DAY.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MAINTAING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE AN UPPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKER SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE
MCS MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS BEING VERY QUICK
TO DRY US OUT...WILL DROP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WEEKEND. BUT THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST.
FOR NOW LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER HPC SOLUTION.
WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST PERIODS...EXCEPT A TAD WARMER FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THERE WILL BE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 091800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR MOST OTHER TIMES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ACROSS KENTUCKY. RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION VCTS
AT KIND AND KBMG AFTER 21Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MID TO LATE EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME IMPROVEMENT
BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS CEILINGS RISE ABOVE 3 THOUSAND FEET.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 12 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING KEEP THE MENTION OF WET
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AFTER ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAS
BUILT UP DESPITE A THICK MID DECK. LATEST THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY PROGS FROM EXPERIMENTAL RAP MODEL ILLUSTRATE HIGHEST
SBCAPES ACROSS THE MTNS OF WV AND S OF I-70 IN SERN OH. HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR A FEW HRS AFTER SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT. FARTHER WEST IN OHIO...STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM
300-320K WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES JUMPING DRAMATICALLY DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF RW/TRW ACROSS HTS VCNTY WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 1Z. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE UP TO A HALF AN INCH. THE HALF
INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE CONFINED TO PHD - WOODSFIELD AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE FINALLY BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
LIFTED NORTH AND EAST LATE TUESDAY. WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SUPPLY
PROJECTED FROM THE GULF AND PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT VIA SEVERAL
VORT LOBES AND MID LEVEL JET...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE KEPT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST...THINK THAT AMPLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND THUS INSTABILITY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST
OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CHANCE POPS WERE
CONTINUED AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL
AND NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT
CROSSING MIDDAY TUESDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH POP NUMBERS/COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROVIDES FULL SUPPRESSION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PRECIPITATION WITH NW-SE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE PROVIDING FOCUS IN A MORE SHEARED
THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SERIES OF SHRTWVS IS GFS AND ECMWF SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY NGT AND
THURSDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE REGION. WITH FRONTAL POSITION
ANTICIPATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS SOLNS...HAVE RETAINED A
LIKELY POP PROGNOSIS...BUT ONLY FOR AREAS GENLY SOUTH OF I 76.
BLDG SFC HIGH SHOULD THEN PUSH THE FRONT SWD AND ENSURE A DRYING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY COOL TEMPS WL MODERATE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD CNTRL CONUS RIDGE EXPANDS/SHIFTS SLGTLY EWD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS FORECAST THRU THE EVE ALTHOUGH MID AND UPR LVL
CLDS WL CONT TO PLAGUE THE REGION AS WARM...MOIST ADVCTN CONTS IN
THE SECTOR TO THE EAST OF MIDWRN LOW PRES. CONDITION DETERIORATION
IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MRNG THOUGH AS THAT LOW RAPIDLY ADVNS AND
DVLPS RAIN OVR THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF
IFR FOR MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY BUT RAIN AND RESTRICTION
CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO INCRS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURDAY AS LOW
PRES AGAIN MOVS ACRS THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVER NW IA
DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS ND AND ADJACENT SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER SW CANADA. SHORTWAVE OVER IA
HAS MANAGED TO SWING A BAND OF SHRA N INTO WRN UPPER MI TODAY. SHRA
HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND PROBABLY SOME
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEW ENGLAND. ERN EDGE OF SHRA AREA HAS BATTLED
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS AT THE LOW/MID LEVELS PER 12Z KGRB/KAPX
SOUNDINGS. IT APPEARS SPRINKLES HAVE REACHED AS FAR E AS MEMONINEE
AND DICKINSON COUNTIES TODAY.
WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ERN EDGE OF PCPN BAND FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO DRIER AIR MASS...WILL SHOW A
DIMINISHING POP TREND OVER THE W DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
SPRINKLES MAY GET AS FAR E AS WRN MARQUETTE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...WITH
SHORTWAVE OVER IA DRIFTING ESE INTO IL TONIGHT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS
NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY FORCING FOR PCPN OVER UPPER MI. IN
FACT...PER QVECTORS...MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN
DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING OVER UPPER MI BTWN THE WAVE MOVING
INTO IL AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND THAT WILL
BE MOVING INTO FAR NE MN/NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH
OF THE FCST AREA IN AN AREA OF LITTLE/NO DYNAMIC FORCING TONIGHT.
SO...FCST TONIGHT WILL RETAIN THE IDEA OF HIGHER POPS OVER THE NW...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD ISLE ROYALE...AND LOW CHC/SCHC POPS ELSEWHERE...
EXCEPT FOR THE E WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT UNDER LINGERING
MID/UPPER RIDGING. A NUMBER OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW REMNANTS
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WRN LWR MI ROTATING NW INTO SCNTRL UPPER
MI THIS EVENING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT DOES HAPPEN.
SHORTWAVE THAT REACHES NE MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD MON. WAVE WILL SUPPORT BETTER PCPN CHANCES ACROSS
WRN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO PORTIONS OF NW UPPER MI MON MORNING.
MUCH OF THE FORCING WITH WAVE WILL THEN SHIFT N AND E OF THE AREA AS
THE AFTN WEARS ON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR AFTN
CONVECTION. NAM SHOWS MLCAPE INCREASING TO 150-500J/KG IN THE AFTN
WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. THE GFS HAS SIMILAR VALUES...BUT ITS INSTABILITY IS CONFINED
TO JUST THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TAIL END
OF DEPARTING DEEP LAYER FORCING STILL SKIRTING THE AREA IN THE
AFTN...AVBL INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR A MENTION OF
SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTN (CHC POPS OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF AND SCHC E). CONVECTION OVER THE W SHOULD BE FURTHER AIDED BY
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. OPTED TO INCLUDE SCHC THUNDER MENTION OVER
THE INTERIOR W HALF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO
ONTARIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER TEXAS WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS IT IS...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
RIDGING AND A PASSING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TUESDAY. THOUGH THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND/PWATS UP TO 115 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED BY THIS RIDGE OVER LAND. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS PRIMARILY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SO CHANCE POPS ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
COULD POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL 00Z.
AS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. EXPECT MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THE RIDGE BOUNDARY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH. THIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER
MICHIGAN HOWEVER...LIKELY OVER CENTRAL/LOWER WI. THE UPPER LOW THAT
BROUGHT THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH UPPER MI ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION...OVER PRIMARILY ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WITH
RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVER UPPER MI.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET.
WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE ON THURSDAY AND MIXING TO
AROUND 950MB IN MOST LOCATIONS EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. REGIONS CLOSEST TO THE LAKES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES.
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST INCREASES WITH AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
EXPERIENCE FULL DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH...AND WITH BETTER MIXING TO
THE 850MB LEVEL/TEMPS AROUND 12-14C AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL CROSS EASTWARD
INTO QUEBEC...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA/DEWPOINTS
NEARING 60F/ AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
BAND OF -SHRA MOVING N FROM WI WILL AFFECT KIWD THIS AFTN AND KCMX
LATER THIS AFTN. UNDER E TO SE FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AT THE LOW-LEVELS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR DESPITE PCPN.
WITH RAINFALL WETTING THE GROUND MORE SO AT KIWD...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS/FOG TO FORM TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FROM A DOWNSLOPING SE DIRECTION...POTENTIAL
APPEARS MINIMAL. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND THERE
MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES LATER THIS AFTN. EARLY MON AFTN...DAYTIME
HEATING MAY BEGIN TO POP A FEW SHRA...ESPECIALLY AROUND KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
AS LOW PRES OVER NW IA DRIFTS E...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND
20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO AROUND
25KT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR W THRU THIS EVENING DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. WITH SOME RAIN FALLING OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
RETURN AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR TUE THRU FRI. MUCH OF
THAT PERIOD WILL SEE WINDS AOB 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHRTWV RDG AXIS
EXTENDING FM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE OF A
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE NCENTRAL PLAINS DOWNWIND OF
AN UPR RDG OVER THE WRN CONUS. WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG DOMINATING THE
GREAT LKS UNDER THE UPR RDG/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC...THERE IS QUIET
OVERNGT WX OVER THE CWA WITH MOCLR SKIES. HI CLDS ON THE NE FLANK OF
THE SFC LO OVER NW IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SHRTWV ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS AS
FAR NE AS SE MN/FAR SW WI WHERE H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS MAXIMIZED.
AXIS OF MORE WDSPRD RA CORRESPONDS WELL TO AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SHOWN
BY THE NAM.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS.
TDAY...MOST OF THE RECENT NUMERICAL RUNS SHOW SHRTWV NOW IN THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS CLOSING OFF AND MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 00Z MON. AS A RESULT...SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT LKS...WITH CONTINUED 12HR H5 HGT RISES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA FARTHER NE OF THE SHRTWV. GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN SUPPORTING AREA
OF SHRA IN SE MN SPREADING SLOWLY TO THE N AND IMPACTING MAINLY THE
FAR WRN CWA THIS AFTN. SO OPTED TO RETAIN THE GOING FLAVOR OF THE
GOING FCST SHOWING POPS ARRIVING OVER THE W IN THE AFTN. BUT DID
TRIM BACK ON EWD EXTENSION OF THESE POPS TOWARD THE H5 HGT RISES AND
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ZERO QPF OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. ALSO
TENDED TO RAISE FCST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR E
WHERE THERE WL BE MORE SUNSHINE. MIXING TO H8 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS
HI TEMPS REACHING AOA 75 AT ERY. MORE CLD COVER SHOULD RESTRICT THE
DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY OVER THE W.
TNGT...CLOSED LO OVER IOWA IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E INTO ILLINOIS...SO
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY FORCING FOR PCPN OVER
UPR MI WITH UPR RDG AXIS PERSISTING INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI ON THE
NRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO
RIDE EWD IN THE FAST WLY FLOW ALF BTWN THE WRN RDG AND A CLOSED LO
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU NRN
MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO OVERNGT...WITH SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR IMPACTING MAINLY THE NW CWA TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. SO
MAINTAINED HIER POPS IN THIS AREA BUT TRIMMED BACK PCPN CHCS OVER
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA DUE TO ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING UNDER
MORE PERSISTENT UPR RDG.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN EARLY THIS WEEK FEATURES TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH SHALLOW RIDGES DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK MAIN TROUGHING WILL BE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT CONUS AND OVER WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST CONUS.
TROUGHS SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL THE WEATHER THIS WEEK TAKES A BREAK FROM THE COOL AND ACTIVE
WEATHER SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK. OVERALL...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHORES...TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL IF NOT ABOVE.
OTHER THAN SMALL/ISOLD CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...EXPECT A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF UPR MICHIGAN.
SPLIT PATTERN IN LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT BEGAN TO EMERGE 24 HOURS
AGO IS NOW PRESENT IN UPSTREAM WV LOOP AND MODELS. AT DAYBREAK
MONDAY ONE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS IL/IN WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
IN BTWN WILL BE LIFTING OVER FAR NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR DESTINED TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN FORCING FM A QG
STANDPOINT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR BUT THERE STILL IS
HINT THAT TAIL OF THE IN BTWN WAVE MAY GRAZE UPR MICHIGAN DURING
PEAK HEATING OF AFTN. EXTENT OF HEATING IS QUESTIONABLE AS THERE
MAY BE FAIR AMOUNT OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS IN VCNTY ENHANCED BY SSE
SFC FLOW ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF GREAT LAKES. WHERE THERE IS
LESS CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS WENT FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 AND EVEN INTO
LOWER 70S. OTHERWISE...UPR 60S SHOULD DO. THE WAVE AND SUBTLE
SFC-H85 CONVERGENCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHRA IN THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED OVR CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
A LULL EXPECTED...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT...MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE SHORTWAVE COULD BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...JUST HARD TO
TELL RIGHT NOW. ATTN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL BE ON SHORTWAVE IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT EMERGING OUT OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. ECMWF/GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE
OVR CNTRL LK SUPERIOR AND CNTRL CWA BY 18Z. SHARP H7 DRYING NOTED IN
WAKE OF THE WAVE. STARTING TO THINK THAT IF ANY SHOWERS OCCUR THEY
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING WEST AND MAINLY ONLY INTO EARLY-MID
AFTN CNTRL AND EAST. 925-850MB WINDS MORE WESTERLY WITH LOCALIZED
LAKE BREEZES MAY HELP ENHANCE POP-UP SHRA POTENTIAL IN THE EAST.
THOUGH GFS AND NAM SFC DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT LOWER 60S
ARE LIKELY WAY OVERDONE...ECMWF SHOWS MORE REASONABLE DWPNTS IN
THE 40S AND STILL HAS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN THAT AREA DUE TO
THE SHORTWAVE. SLIGHT CHANCES COVER SITUATION WELL BOTH IN TERMS
OF EXPECTED COVERAGE AND ACTUAL CHANCE OF IT OCCURRING AT ALL. QUITE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING MAY END UP DRY ALL AREAS DUE TO THE DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE WAVE. COOLEST TEMPS ON TUESDAY OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH MORE PREVALENT LAKE MODIFIED REGIME. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE LAKE COOLING.
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STAY WELL TO SOUTH OF
UPPER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GREATER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN...ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT AND
IN THE VCNTY OF H85 WARM FRONT. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA OR
SPRINKLES ON EDGE OF HIGHER H7 DWPNT...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE
FAR SOUTH CWA. DRY ELSEHWERE WITH READINGS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
BUT STAYING IN THE 60S OVER THE NORTH DUE TO STRONGER LAKE BREEZE
SINCE GRADIENT FLOW IS ALREADY LIGHT NORTHERLY. MID CLOUDS AND ANY
LGT SHRA WILL BE FINISHED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ENTIRE SYSTEM DIPS
FARTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM UPR MICHIGAN.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLEST TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR. INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION WILL BE IN THE 70S. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
FOR FRIDAY WITH LGT SOUTH RETURN FLOW. STILL ENOUGH OF ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO KEEP IMMEDIATE GREAT LAKES SHORES COOLER. TEMPS INLAND
SHOULD MAKE RUN WELL INTO THE 70S WITH GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE DUE TO
DEPARTING RIDGE. POSSIBLE WARMEST SPOTS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR MAY
CRACK 80 DEGREES.
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVES EAST OUT OF ROCKIES.
USED CONSENSUS POPS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
BAND OF -SHRA MOVING N FROM WI WILL AFFECT KIWD THIS AFTN AND KCMX
LATER THIS AFTN. UNDER E TO SE FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AT THE LOW-LEVELS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR DESPITE PCPN.
WITH RAINFALL WETTING THE GROUND MORE SO AT KIWD...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS/FOG TO FORM TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FROM A DOWNSLOPING SE DIRECTION...POTENTIAL
APPEARS MINIMAL. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND THERE
MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES LATER THIS AFTN. EARLY MON AFTN...DAYTIME
HEATING MAY BEGIN TO POP A FEW SHRA...ESPECIALLY AROUND KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCREASE TO E UP TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON AS A LO PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BRINGS A SHARPER PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOCALLY
HIER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W...WHERE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. WEAK
HI PRES WILL RETURN AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR TUE THRU
THU. WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
107 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NOW OVER IOWA WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO MON MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS. VERY INTENSE RAIN MAY
BE ONGOING FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.
FOR DTW...WHILE THE EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARD
SUNSET...THE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN AN EASTERLY WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS METRO ON MONDAY...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PROLONGED INTENSE RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1014 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
UPDATE...
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME SEMBLANCE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS OFF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER WRN IOWA. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TO ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING TO BOOST
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. THERE IS A RATHER HEALTHY RIBBON OF MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION STRETCHING FROM ERN ND ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL
LOWER MI. THE FORCING IS MUCH STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THE STATE
WHERE THERE IS NOW A WIDE BAND OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM NRN WI TO
ERN ND. THE MID LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THUS NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LINGERING
MID CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTUALLY LOOKING QUITE
LOW TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS IOWA TODAY...MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL BUILD A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER SE MI. THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWED A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB WHICH WILL
ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER WELL INLAND. THE MOST RECENT NAM AND RUC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDING OVER
WRN LOWER MI. THUS...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER SURGE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD 00Z. THIS
WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COUPLED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH THE AIRMASS POTENTIAL CERTAINLY 80 DEGREES BASED ON 850
MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 12 C. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE A FACTOR COMING
OFF THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE/LAKE ST CLAIR. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL FAVOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES...WITH FLINT AREA LIKELY COMING IN AS ONE OF THE WARMER
READINGS DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THE 500 MB LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. A
GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE 6-12Z MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOT SEEN
ARRIVING UNTIL CLOSE TO 12Z...GIVING ONE PAUSE WITH THE HIGH LIKELY
POPS (SEE 00Z REGIONAL GEM)...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-59. THEN
AGAIN...IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z GFS...THERE IS NOTHING TO WORRY
ABOUT...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WOULD BE IN ORDER. LOOKING AT THE MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS (500 MB) COMPARED TO RAOBS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...DON`T HAVE OVERWHELMING CONFIDENCE IN EITHER OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE 00Z EURO GIVES SUPPORT TO THE GFS...SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
MONDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES ENHANCED LIFT/FORCING. WILL NOT
BE MAKING ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
ONCE THIS STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...THE PATTERN RETURNS
TO A MORE OR LESS QUIET ONE. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN
THE WEST/NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE BY
THAT TIME...CHANCES SEEM PRETTY HIGH THAT A BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIP SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD
ASSUME THAT THIS GENERAL TREND WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED NORTH/SOUTH
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PROGRESSING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO
BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD...KEEPING THE NORTHERN EXTENT LIMITED.
AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60
DEGREE RANGE.
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS....AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE
REGION...SO WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM.../NOW - MONDAY/
THE FOCUS IS ON THE WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HOW THAT WILL CONTINUE AND LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT I
HAVE AND CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS
FAR TIMING OF THE PCPN THROUGH THIS EVENING GOES SINCE THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL.
AT 300PM/2000Z...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NEW YORK INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED NEAR NW IOWA...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. A TROUGH BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE SASKATCHEWAN
LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO THE IOWA LOW. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WAS SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE IOWA LOW AND THE
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE WERE EASTERLY WINDS OF 5
TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE SE AND FAR N FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S DUE TO THE RAIN AND
COOL WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LOW IN NW IOWA WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT....WHILE THE TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
TROUGH. THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GENERALLY
LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
NEGLIGIBLE LATER TONIGHT...MAKING FOG LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND. THIS
HELP KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHLAND DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NW FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD BE
RELATED TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. I HAVE
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. I RAISED THE
FORECAST IN SOME AREAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT I THINK IT COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF THE NORTHLAND
GETS ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. I SIDED A BIT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE MAY BE MORNING FOG AND
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW WELL IT CLEARS CONSIDERING LITTLE WIND TO
HELP MIX IT OUT. HOWEVER...IT AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHLAND
WILL FINALLY GET SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER FOR SUCH A LONG TIME.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAKE A
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE A SHORT WAVE WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SWEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY PROFILES WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PWATS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO NRN
ZONES...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND GONE WITH A DRY FCST OR JUST
MENTION OF SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT A H50 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES IN EXTENDED LOOK TO TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. HAVE KEPT A
DRY FCST WED/THURS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON. IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH FOG AND -DZ WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
/INCLUDING KHYR/ WHERE CIGS MAINLY IN THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORY WILL
BE FOUND. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WISCONSIN WITH
LOWER VSBYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 71 53 76 / 70 20 10 10
INL 50 72 53 75 / 70 20 40 10
BRD 51 75 56 79 / 30 10 10 10
HYR 55 77 55 80 / 60 20 10 10
ASX 51 71 50 76 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SWRN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE NAM...SREF AND RAP MODEL ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE FAR WESTERN
PERIPHERY FOR BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY UNTIL 15Z TODAY. HAVE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT AFFECTED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WIND. THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALSO BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH TO THE EAST THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WESTERN SANDHILLS LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. TWEAKED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH INPUT FROM THE NAM12 SFC TEMPS WHICH IS ALSO VERY CLOSE
TO A MET/MAV BLEND.
TIME SECTIONS SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT 5 TO 15 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES OVER ILLINOIS LATE
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE FOUR
CORNER REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT TO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SOUTHWEST RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN/HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY...BRINGING UNSEASONABLE WARM /HOT/ TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR SW NEB WILL PUSH CLOSE TO IF NOT REACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS...THE REST OF WESTERN NEB SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 90S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER NORTH CENTRAL...MID AND UPPER 80S...WITH MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORING FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST IS DRY AT THIS TIME AS TEMPS
ALOFT PROVIDE A STRONG CAP. THE CONCERN IS PW/S WILL BE ABOVE AN
INCH...ABOUT 75 PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...AND ACCORDING TO THE NAM
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG LL JET THAT NOSES INTO THE CWA. THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS NOT SHOWING A FAVORABLE JET...THUS THE
DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST...AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE DRY LINE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. SW NEB
LIKELY WILL TOP 100 WITH ALL BUT PART OF NORTHERN ZONES TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. RH LEVELS TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE
SHOULD EASILY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER IT IS FAIRLY GREEN
AND WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS...NOT A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A STRONG CAP TO THE SOUTH.
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER
SHOULD STILL SEE SW NEB WARM INTO THE 90S...ELSEWHERE 80S. THEN A
COOL FRONT TO PASS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MODELS IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE RESULTING SLIGHT COOL DOWN WHICH
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD LATER IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGE DRIFTS EAST WITH SOME SHORT WAVES TO RIDE THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...RIDGE RIDERS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE MINOR EXCEPTION BEING AT KONL WHERE
MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY ERODING...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NO RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE 18-19Z TIMEFRAME TODAY.
OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN TO THE AVIATION COMMUNITY IS THE
PRESENCE OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH KLBF AND KVTN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 10KTS AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
149 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM EDT UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG HAS
BURNED OFF THIS MORNING AND A CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS MID LVL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
WEAK HIPRES AT THE SFC AND SHRP RDGG ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THEAREA
DRY TODAY. THE DAY WILL START WITH SOME DENSE FOG AS THE RECENT
RAIN AND CLR SKIES HAVE COMBINED TO SATURATE THE LL THIS MRNG.
STRONG SUNNWILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 70S THIS AFTN AND MAY TOUCH
80 IN THE CLYS OF NEPA AND THE CNTRL SRN TIER. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRP TROF WITH CLSD LOW APRCHS FOR TNGT THRU TUE. SLOW MVG SYSTEM
HAS A GULF CONNECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE AVBL WHICH SHD RESULT IN A
GOOD SOAKING BEGINNING MON AND CONTG THRU THE SHRT TERM. FVRBL UPR
JET DYNAMICS WITH RR OF A JET OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WRAPPING ARND THE UPR LOW TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE UVM WITH A WELL DEFINED SFC TROF WRM FNT
FEATURE CONNECTED TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOW. GOOD DYNAMICS
SHD ALSO HELP DVLP EMBEDDED CONV LOCALLY INCRSG RAINFALL AMTS AND
RATES. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME FLOOD FLAGS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
PSN OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.
MODEL TEMP GUID IN MARGINAL AGREEMENT FOR THE PD WITH THE GFS/MAV GUID
CONSDIERABLY WRMR THAN THE NAM/MET. BELIEVE THE DEEP CLD CLV AND PCPN
WILL KEEP THE TMPS FROM RCHG THE MAV LVLS BUT DID GO SLGTLY WRMR
THAN THE MET GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE SFC AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...TUESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
TIP OF NEW YORK MOVES OFF TO THE NE TAKING MOST OF THE CHC FOR
PCPN WITH IT BUT THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WITH NW CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP SOME STRATO
CU OVER THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RW- OR SPRINKLES WED AFTERNOON.
RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVE IN WED NIGHT. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THU.
THERE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
MASON-DIXON LINE AREA. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH IT THEN THE ECMWF.
THE ECMWF PHASES WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE WHERE
AS THE GFS KEEPS THEM SEPARATE. EITHER WAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AS THESE WAVES MOVE E ON FRI THE AREA IS BACK INTO NW
CLYCLONIC FLOW ENHANCING CLOUDS OVER TERRAIN AND CHANCE RW- WITH
UPSLOPE AND A LITTLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FOR SAT. THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN SAT NIGHT AND
A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SCATTERED CU WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFT 22Z. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN OVER NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVES INTO NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY BY
12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BECOMING SE 5-10 KT MON.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY AS INCREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN MOVE IN. CLOUDS BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL
MID DAY AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN
RAIN. CHANCES FOR TSTMS ALSO INCREASES...IFR CONDS AND HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH ANY TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT...IFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WED AND THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...BMW/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT FSM/FYV/XNA THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL END AROUND SUNSET. THE PROBABILITY THAT
A TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN
THE TAF. WILL MONITOR IN CASE AN UPDATE IS NEEDED. /SA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
12Z DATA INDICATES THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OVER. STILL A COLD POOL ALOFT OVER KANSAS
THAT WILL SWING DOWN OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS LOOKS STABLE...BUT AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CHANGE
THAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...MAINLY EAST. WILL LOWER POPS A
LITTLE. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 85 66 93 70 / 10 10 10 10
FSM 83 64 93 69 / 30 10 10 0
MLC 85 66 93 71 / 20 10 10 0
BVO 84 61 93 69 / 10 10 10 10
FYV 78 60 89 66 / 30 10 10 0
BYV 77 61 89 66 / 30 10 10 10
MKO 82 65 91 69 / 20 10 10 0
MIO 84 62 91 69 / 20 10 10 10
F10 84 65 92 71 / 20 10 10 0
HHW 87 66 92 70 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
446 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 MBAR COLD TEMP AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
21Z. THIS AXIS OF COLDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN SWEEPING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS OF CURRENT WW SHORTLY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY
IN THOSE AREAS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SREF RUN WEAKENS INSTABILITY
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS ALSO BROUGHT
OUT BY H-TRIPLE-R HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. THINK BEST SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE FOR LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND BEGIN WEAKENING BY 03Z AS IT
APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 03Z AND 06Z.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
HE BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN
MIDDLE TN AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST.
LATEST LAPS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STACKED NICELY AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM IOWA. THESE 2 FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PHASE AND WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE ISOL TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND A FEW STORMS COULD REACH STRONG LEVELS.
THEN...LATER TONIGHT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID STATE...A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN REACH STRONG LEVELS WITH
HIGH WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. TIMING OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 8PM TO 2AM ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND 11PM TO 5AM ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR DATA APPEARS TO WANT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES INTO EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
ON MONDAY...NAM MODEL WILL BE TOSSED AS GRAPHICS DEPICT NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS AT 18Z...AND THIS IN TURN HAS EVOKED OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NUMERICAL MET DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SFC WITH DEWS IN THE LOWER 60S. GFS AND MAV DATA SHOWS EVEN
LOWER DEWPOINTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CAPES REINFORCED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING PATTERN. COULD SEE ISOL TO SCT STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION...WIND AND HAIL.
MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR TO WORK IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS
EASTWARD. POPS WILL THEREFORE SHUTDOWN WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A DEFINITIVE WARMING TREND WILL BE AT HAND AS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER TX AND OUR HEIGHTS RISE.
IN THE EXT FCST...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS FOR SAT OR SUN. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF PLATEAU.
VERSUS THE MEX GUIDANCE...AGAIN...THE MEX APPEARS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT 97 AT BNA FOR WED. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT
AND GO 94. A GENERAL UNDERCUT WILL BE UTILIZED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 66 86 65 90 / 70 30 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 65 85 62 92 / 70 30 20 10
CROSSVILLE 65 79 61 84 / 70 50 20 10
COLUMBIA 66 87 66 92 / 70 30 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 66 87 67 92 / 70 30 20 10
WAVERLY 65 86 64 92 / 60 30 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH SE TX
CURRENTLY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DID NOT TAKE LONG TO DEVELOP WITH
LIFT FROM THE TROUGH...DAY TIME HEATING AND JUICY AIR OF 1.8-1.9
INCH PRECIP WATER. SHORT TERM PART OF THE TAFS ALL HAVE TSRA IN
SOME SHAPE/FORM EXCEPT FOR KCLL WHERE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST.
ALSO NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL REACH KGLS BUT WILL LEAVE VCTS FOR
NOW. MAY PROBLEM WILL BE SLOW STORM MOTIONS OVER THE HOUSTON METRO
SO KIAH/KHOU/KSGR COULD HAVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR NEXT 2-4
HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS ACTIVITY ENDING AROUND 22Z-23Z AND THINK
THIS MAY BE ON TRACK. KEPT THIS TREND FOR THE TAFS. OVERNIGHT
EXPECT ANY CIGS TO CLEAR OUT AND IF ANYTHING MAY GET SOME PATCHY
FOG AT USUAL SPOTS LIKE KCXO/KLBX. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS TOMORROW
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
DISCUSSION...
PER ONGOING RADAR TRENDS WILL BE GOING WITH INCREASED POPS FOR ALL
OF OUR CWA WITH THE UPDATE. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS REACHED THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS FOR TODAY AND NOT REALLY SEEING HOW ALL THIS WILL
STOP UNTIL TONIGHT (WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING). NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
SFC BOUNDARY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO FOCUS ON BUT BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN A LIKELY IN THE SLOWER MOVING STRONGER STORMS. 41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/
TODAY COULD BE A RAINY DAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A
SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD OUR AREA. SCATTERED SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FURTHER
WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE SOUTHEAST TEXAS FAVORABLY
POSITIONED IN A DEEP TROF AXIS. THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARIES FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE PARTS OF OUR AREA A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE AND PLAN ON ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES ON THE MORNING UPDATE AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. STILL
EXPECTING A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN CARRY MOSTLY TOKEN 10%
POPS OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ANTICIPATED WELL INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THESE READINGS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
APPROACH MID JUNE RECORDS. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 73 93 74 94 / 60 40 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 74 93 75 94 / 60 40 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 79 89 80 88 / 50 30 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
124 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND
WEAKEN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID AIR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS TODAY...WARM ADVECTIONAND
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
THIS INCREASE AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT GSO AND RNK WHERE
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED NEARLY .25 INCHES SINCE LAST EVENING.
MUCH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE TWO AREAS WHERE CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR HIGHEST ARE IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THE SECOND AREA IS
NW NC AND FAR SW VA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
PER THE HRRR MODELS...DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IN THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AND MORE PULSE PER WEAK WINDS ALOFT
ALTHOUGH IF MORE HEATING DOES DEVELOP THEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT SOME WIND THREAT PER HIGH DCAPES UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE ANY EVENING CONVECTION WIND DOWN SOME WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
RESIDUAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST HEADS EAST.
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SATURATED/JUICY OVERNIGHT AND WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SE...EXPECT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE BETTER BAND OF LIFT ARRIVES
ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER TIMING OFF GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT
SO PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY POPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THE SREF DEPICTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIP LATE. QUITE A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 60S AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER EARLY DURING THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.(WILL ADD
MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY TO HWO AND MONITOR FOR
FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER SATURATED GROUNDS.)
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART THE AREA WITH THE
FRONT... HOWEVER WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY WHILE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WITH RICHER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES CLOSE TO ADJMAV FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. PLAYED LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ON
MILD SIDE FROM UPPER 50S IN THE WEST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO MID 80S
IN THE EAST. LOWS TUESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE A RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH MODELS HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST AND INTO OUR
AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE QUICK PROGRESS EAST...PASSING FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
SIMILAR IN THE SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TIMING AND THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW...WITH THE GFS ONLY A FEW HOURS FASTER. AT ANY RATE...AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION...
BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
FOR DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE DURING NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A MIX OF CU/AC ACROSS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHEN WE COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT...THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS AREA OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION PLUS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA...WILL RESULT IN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MOST OF
MONDAY.
THE BAND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST MONDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. EACH SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT OF DEVELOPMENT OF NIGHT TIME VALLEY AND RIVER FOG. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO VFR BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING MORE
SUB-VFR IN SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS/NF
AVIATION...JH/PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH TO MISSOURI...AND RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...AN UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED IN NORTHWEST IA WITH 500MB
STANDARDIZED DEVIATIONS OF 1.5 BELOW NORMAL. MAIN SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WHICH MOVED
NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...HAS
LIFTED INTO NORTHERN MN AND WESTERN UPPER MI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THESE ARE A RESULT
OF COOL AIR ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ALLOWING FOR SURFACE BASED
CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG GIVEN TEMPERATURES OF 65-75F AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST IA AT THE SURFACE HAS PROVIDED A FOCUSED AREA
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH
THE MAIN CLEARING LINE TO THE WEST OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE UPPER LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD...TRACKING IT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 12Z MONDAY AND
WESTERN OHIO BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE PUSHED BY
AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA HEADING TO THE EAST. THIS
MEANS THE DRYING AND CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL EVENTUALLY GET HERE. TIMING IS IMPORTANT...THOUGH...BECAUSE IF
THE CLEARING MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THE
RECENT RAINS WILL FAVOR FOG AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
VARIOUS MODEL 700MB AND 500MB RH FIELDS SUGGEST THESE WILL DRY OUT
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT 925-850MB RH
FIELDS STAY PRETTY MOIST TO FULLY SATURATED ALL THE WAY WEST TO SAY
FARMINGTON MN AT 12Z MONDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE ON A RADIATION FOG
EVENT IS VERY LOW. HIRES ARW VISIBILITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE BULK
OF THE FOG ENDS UP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF MN AND IA AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERN WI...LEAVING OUR AREA MAYBE WITH SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG AT BEST. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA WITH THE THOUGHT OF LOW STRATUS
IN PLACE TONIGHT. BETTER SHOT FOR CLEARING SHOULD COME DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...SPREADING WEST TO EAST...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
AWAY AND DAYTIME MIXING CAN GET RID OF THE CLOUDS.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION...ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECTING
THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. BY 12Z MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY. ON MONDAY...AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH IS
PROGGED TO LAY UP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG PLUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH MAY YIELD
SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THUS...HAVE KEPT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES
GOING...MAINLY AFTER 15Z AND OVER CENTRAL WI. NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
PARAMETER WOULD FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM OVER SOUTHEAST
WI...AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF WIND SHOULD ALLOW FOR JUST A VERY SLOW DROP. A BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE IN THIS SITUATION...RESULTING IN LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GRADUALLY MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C FAVOR
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
FOCUS REMAINS ON POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST REMAINS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. PLENTY OF WARM AIR WILL EXIST
UNDER THE RIDGE WITH 850MB STANDARDIZED TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
CLIMBING TO 1.5-2.5 ABOVE NORMAL OVER KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGING AND
WARMING TO HAVE A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. HOW FAR NORTH THIS WARM
FRONT GETS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/FLOODING FOR THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE FEATURE HELPING TO PULL THE WARM FRONT NORTH APPEARS TO BE THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS UPPER LOW
COMES ACROSS UTAH AND WYOMING ON TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF IT SHOULD PROPEL THE FRONT NORTH TO AT LEAST I-70 BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY PER MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 09.12Z NAM/CANADIAN LIFT IT
ALMOST TO I-80 IN IOWA AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE IT ENDS UP AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY IS CRITICAL BECAUSE THERE IS A VERY STRONG CONSENSUS FOR
MCS ACTIVITY TO FIRE JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING...ON THE
EDGE OF THE 700MB CAPPING...THEN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST PER CORFIDI
VECTORS. MODELS TRENDS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST A
FARTHER SOUTH POSITION WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT IT IS STILL HARD TO
SAY AT THIS TIME WHETHER IT GETS BOTTLED UP NEAR THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER OR GETS PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS US HWY 20. SINCE THE TREND
HAS BEEN SOUTH...SHIFTED THE POPS ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO COME BETTER IN-LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS. THESE
MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN LATER FORECASTS.
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST TIME PERIOD RIGHT NOW FOR AN MCS WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90...WOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE:
1. SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
EVENING SKIES AND MOIST SOILS.
2. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 14-17C NORTH TO SOUTH.
3. POTENTIAL FOR A DRIER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE MCS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTING OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE MAY NOT BE ANY INSTABILITY LEFT BY THE TIME THE
UPPER LOW...LIKELY A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE NOW...BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. 09.12Z GFS/CANADIAN ARE DRY...BUT
THE 09.12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS SOME ISO-SCT CONVECTION...THUS SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS
EXISTS FOR A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AMPLIFYING A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SETS UP A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING TO TAKE THAT SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
AT THE TIME NEAR/OVER THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO A DRIER...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FORECAST. A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND NORMAL. ON FRIDAY...PART OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
REST OF IT APPEARS TO RETROGRADE WEST SLIGHTLY. THE PART THAT EJECTS
NORTHEAST HELPS TO PUSH THE RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...YIELDING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A COLD FRONT APPROACH/CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...
REQUIRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAY BE DEALING WITH
MCS ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...THOUGH PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE MCSS WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THE COLD FRONT WILL BE. THE
09.12Z GFS/ECMWF HANG IT UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS LINGERING...COULD BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST IA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
WEAKENING AS IT DOES AND ENDING UP IN IN/ON/LOWER MI BY 18Z MON.
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE -SHRA ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
WITH THE -SHRA...PERHAPS ISOLATED/LCL IFR IN ANY TSRA THAT MAY
DEVELOP. LIFT EXITS/WANES QUICKLY AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT PLENTY OF SFC-850MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW.
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AS THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL COOLING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BKN/OVC CLOUD DECKS
TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT VSBYS OF 1-5SM BR STILL
LOOK TO OCCUR WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER QUICKLY MON MORNING AS THE DRYING NORTHWEST
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE THE MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK TO
HANG ON AT KRST UNTIL 17-18Z AND 19-20Z AT KLSE...UNTIL SOME WEAK
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS