Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/08/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
952 AM MDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC AND NAM12 SHOWING GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE
CAPES WILL BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS...CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 100-300 J/KG ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE TO ZERO OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO POPS FOR TODAY...DID EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE SLIGHTLY
EAST ONTO THE FRONT RANGE WHERE A SHOWER OR STORM MAY DRIFT OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWERED POPS OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE IT
WILL BE MORE STABLE. FOR THE UPDATE...ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DENVER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
DENVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST AND SOUTH. COULD SEE OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS BETWEEN
22 AND 02Z. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND 18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z AND THEN THEY
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM MDT THU JUN 6 2013/
SHORT TERM...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT AS
SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER SWRN CO. LOW LVL WINDS OVER NERN CO
WILL BECOME ENE BY AFTN WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS LIMON. OVERALL CAPES BY AFTN LOOK
TO BE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SO
SHOULD SEE SOME WDLY SCT TSTMS FM THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN CAPES WILL BE AROUND 500 J/KG SO
THERE SHOULD BE WDLY SCT TSTMS IN THE MTNS AS WELL. AS FOR HIGHS
850-700 MB TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
OVER NERN CO.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN KANSAS...WHILE THE NAM
SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE
PATTERN WOULD PRODUCE AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WHICH WOULD HELP IMPORT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE
NAM AND ECMWF SHOW PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF QPF OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY. I WOULD TEND TO GO WITH THE
NAM SINCE I THINK IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SURFACE PATTERN DUE
TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE NAM SOUNDINGS ONLY HAVE
DEWPONTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SEEMS
UNDERDONE FOR THIS PATTERN. THE NAM ALSO SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE LOW
WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES. I DID AN INTERACTIVE SKEW-T ON THE
NAM SOUNDING FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. I BUMPED UP THE
DEWPOINTS TO THE LOW 50S AND RAISED THE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. I CAME UP WITH CAPES FROM 1200 TO 2000 J/KG AN NO CIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN CONSIDERATION...I WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT STILL OVER COLORADO. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES EITHER. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD SCOUR THE MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. AS
A RESULT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION ON SUNDAY AS IT CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS SHIFTING IT EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A VERY DRY
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL PRODUCE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS SHOWING
HIGH CAPES AND MODERATE SHEAR WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ON THAT DAY. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 11TH IS 95 DEGREES.
THE FORECASTED HIGH IS 93 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
THERE IS A CHANCE THE RECORD COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. IN ADDITION...
FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASED WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.
AVIATION...SFC WINDS ARE DRAINAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND CIRA
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. FOR THIS AFTN SOME CONVECTION WILL DVLP OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS HOWEVER IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE
BY MIDDAY AND THEN MORE ELY BY 22Z. BY EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL
BECOME SELY AND THEN SSW AFT 06Z.
HYDROLOGY...TSTMS THIS AFTN SHOULD STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE BURN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF A STORM WERE TO MOVE OVER THE BURN AREAS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH MAY OCCUR IN LESS THAN 30
MINUTES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....KALINA
UPDATE/AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
332 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA LOCATED WITHIN A BAND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM TAMPA TO NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE SW
FLORIDA GULF COAST. THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THIS BANDING
FEATURE AND ANY ADDITIONAL ROTATING CELLS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF IT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS ANDREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECENT BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS LED TO
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH
COULD TRANSLATE TO STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE STRONGER
ROTATION HAS REMAINED NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THUS FAR. HOWEVER...THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SRN FL PENINSULA AS THIS BANDING FEATURE APPROACHES AND MOVES
ASHORE FROM GLADES TO COLLIER COUNTIES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITIES HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...INDICATES THAT IT WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TOTAL MODEL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO LOWER WITHIN THIS LATEST MODEL CYCLE...WHICH
HAS DECREASED THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FLOOD CONCERNS.
THEREFORE...WE WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS WITH NO
EXTENSION ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS ANDREA
QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT
THIS AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE 1.8 TO 2.2" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUING. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO H7 OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...THIS RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTING BACK TO THE ESE. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD...THEN INLAND AND OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE PENINSULA COME SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AS A
RESULT...CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NORMAL WITH DRIER AIR
SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST. WILL REFLECT THIS IN
THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH MAINLY ISLTD/SCT AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
BNB
&&
.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND RESULTANT LARGE SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS...HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS AND
SEAS.
ALONG THE GULF COAST...REPORTS INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS AROUND THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AT NOON TODAY DID NOT GENERATE ANY COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE NAPLES COAST. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT NAPLES INDICATED
WATER LEVELS REMAINING AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS DEVIATION
FROM NORMAL SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANDREA
QUICKLY LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD ALSO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE BEGINNING TONIGHT...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WEAKER
RIP CURRENTS AND SMALLER SURF ALONG THE GULF COAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS ANDREA QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 87 75 86 / 60 70 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 86 76 87 / 60 70 50 40
MIAMI 77 87 76 89 / 60 70 50 40
NAPLES 76 84 75 87 / 60 60 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL COLLIER-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER.
RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT-TERM/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
LONG TERM...BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
157 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.AVIATION...
EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING SHOWERS AT KAFP
THROUGH 13Z...OTHERWISE VCSH THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH A BIT LATE
THIS EVENING. OCSNL MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST...AND 4-6SM IN SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON...BUT NEITHER APPEAR TO PREVAIL AND NOT INCLUDED IN
6Z TAF ISSUANCE. BRIEF SIGNIFICANT VSBY/CIG DEGRADATION IS
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS BEEN NAMED AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS ARE KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. LATEST HRRR TENDS TO KEEP THIS TREND GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATED QPF GRIDS SLIGHTLY BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION FLARED UP JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER LAST NIGHT AND THIS HAS PRODUCED A MASSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR WATERS WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE BROAD
CIRCULATION LOCATION BUT DIFFER WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSEST
ALIGNMENT AND TAKE IT TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS PLACES SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A
CONTINUED FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WITH A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW
TODAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REAL
DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER RESTRICTING THE INSTABILITY
WHICH IS CURRENTLY LACKING. THIS ALSO IS REFLECTED IN THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE LAKE REGION BUT
NOTHING MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT. IN ADDITION, IT NOW APPEARS THAT
THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE SLIM
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO NEAR THE WEST COAST AND WATERSPOUTS OVER
THE GULF WATERS MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY. THIS
REALLY IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN FORM
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. IN ADDITION, AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH
THE SURFACE WIND WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY. THE GULF TIDES ARE
RUNNING AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL SO THIS COMBINED WITH THE
ONSHORE WIND, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY NEAR EVERGLADES CITY, MARCO ISLAND AND THE COASTAL
AREAS OF NAPLES.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES,
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT ALLOWING THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH SOME COOLING AT 500 MB BY ONE DEGREE CELSIUS. THE AFFECTS
WILL MAINLY BE MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH
BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE TRAILING TO ITS SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS WILL REVERT THE PATTERN BACK TO A EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE
EAST AND THEN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE... ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH WIND INCREASING TO SCA CRITERIA ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL SCEC ALL OTHER WATERS. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING EAST
AND DIMINISHING.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 76 83 77 / 60 50 70 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 78 86 78 / 60 50 60 40
MIAMI 85 77 84 77 / 60 50 60 40
NAPLES 84 76 84 74 / 70 50 60 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GULF WATERS
FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
134 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
206 PM CDT
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SINK
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT...CREATING
SPEEDS AROUND 15-20KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THAT A FEW AREAS OVER THE
LAKE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THEN A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL ELONGATE AND
STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS RIDGE CENTER
WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND STRETCH
SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEN A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION LATE
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO
AROUND 10KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUN AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH AN INCREASING
GRADIENT. AT THIS POINT WINDS SUN AFTERNOON COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
15-25KT...THEN THIS GRADIENT WILL PUSH NORTH. CONFIDENCE ON THE
PRECISE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE IS LOW WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR A GENERALLY PATH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE IS MORE PROBABLE.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* EAST-NORTHEAST WIND BECOMING NORTHEAST-NORTH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING AS HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
IL WHICH ARE CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW REGARDING ANY POSSIBLE VIS
RESTRICTIONS. ENOUGH DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT THAT CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY VFR BUT VISIBILITIES MAY DIP INTO MVFR WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT RFD/DPA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. WHILE THE OVERALL
TREND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND TIMING
WILL LIKELY NEED REFINEMENT WITH LATER FORECASTS. COULD BE A
PERIOD FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SOME
GUSTS IN THE 16-20KT RANGE DEVELOP.
AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...IT APPEARS CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT RFD FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
NOT ONLY FOR TIMING BUT ALSO FOR SPECIFIC CIG HEIGHTS. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND FROM 06Z TAFS BUT THESE TOO WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED AS TRENDS EMERGE LATER TODAY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. LAKE BREEZE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY...SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM...LOW PRESSURE HAS REDEVELOPED/CENTERED ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND TO START WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DURING THIS TIME THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG IT MAY
BECOME IS ONLY MEDIUM. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE BUT ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE...FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT BUT COULD INCREASE AGAIN
OR MAINTAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME
CONSENSUS OF A POTENTIAL TRACK FROM WI INTO MI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH NOT ONLY ITS TRACK BUT ALSO ITS STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE LOW. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
906 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE.
* EASTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS/DZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING AS HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
IL WHICH ARE CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW REGARDING ANY POSSIBLE VIS
RESTRICTIONS. ENOUGH DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT THAT CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY VFR BUT VISIBILITIES MAY DIP INTO MVFR WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT RFD/DPA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. WHILE THE OVERALL
TREND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND TIMING
WILL LIKELY NEED REFINEMENT WITH LATER FORECASTS. COULD BE A
PERIOD FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SOME
GUSTS IN THE 16-20KT RANGE DEVELOP.
AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...IT APPEARS CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT RFD FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
NOT ONLY FOR TIMING BUT ALSO FOR SPECIFIC CIG HEIGHTS. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND FROM 06Z TAFS BUT THESE TOO WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED AS TRENDS EMERGE LATER TODAY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS/DZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. LAKE BREEZE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY...SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM...LOW PRESSURE HAS REDEVELOPED/CENTERED ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND TO START WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DURING THIS TIME THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG IT MAY
BECOME IS ONLY MEDIUM. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE BUT ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE...FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT BUT COULD INCREASE AGAIN
OR MAINTAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME
CONSENSUS OF A POTENTIAL TRACK FROM WI INTO MI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH NOT ONLY ITS TRACK BUT ALSO ITS STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE LOW. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
644 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE.
* EASTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING AS HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
IL WHICH ARE CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW REGARDING ANY POSSIBLE VIS
RESTRICTIONS. ENOUGH DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT THAT CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY VFR BUT VISIBILITIES MAY DIP INTO MVFR WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT RFD/DPA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. WHILE THE OVERALL
TREND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND TIMING
WILL LIKELY NEED REFINEMENT WITH LATER FORECASTS. COULD BE A
PERIOD FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SOME
GUSTS IN THE 16-20KT RANGE DEVELOP.
AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...IT APPEARS CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT RFD FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
NOT ONLY FOR TIMING BUT ALSO FOR SPECIFIC CIG HEIGHTS. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND FROM 06Z TAFS BUT THESE TOO WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED AS TRENDS EMERGE LATER TODAY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. LAKE BREEZE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY...SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM...LOW PRESSURE HAS REDEVELOPED/CENTERED ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND TO START WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DURING THIS TIME THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG IT MAY
BECOME IS ONLY MEDIUM. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE BUT ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE...FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT BUT COULD INCREASE AGAIN
OR MAINTAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME
CONSENSUS OF A POTENTIAL TRACK FROM WI INTO MI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH NOT ONLY ITS TRACK BUT ALSO ITS STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE LOW. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
406 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* EASTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS IS
ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT THERE REMAINS QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE RAIN BY
CONTINUED EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. THUS EXPECT CURRENT EASTERN EDGE OF
PRECIP TO STRUGGLE ADVANCING EAST. WITH TIME...THIS LAYER DOES
SATURATE SO MORE PREVAILING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY SPREAD FURTHER
EAST. NO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIP.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE EASTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS NORTHERLY DURING THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH CONTINUED FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP...PERHAPS EVEN IFR. BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZE TO VEER WIND FROM NNE TO ENE AT SOME
TIME IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIME-FRAME. EVENING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLGT CHC TS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
SUNDAY...VFR. SHRA LIKELY WITH TEMPO MVFR. CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BRIEF LOCAL IFR. CHANCE SHRA DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM...LOW PRESSURE HAS REDEVELOPED/CENTERED ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND TO START WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DURING THIS TIME THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG IT MAY
BECOME IS ONLY MEDIUM. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE BUT ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE...FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT BUT COULD INCREASE AGAIN
OR MAINTAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME
CONSENSUS OF A POTENTIAL TRACK FROM WI INTO MI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH NOT ONLY ITS TRACK BUT ALSO ITS STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE LOW. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
337 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* EASTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS IS
ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT THERE REMAINS QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE RAIN BY
CONTINUED EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. THUS EXPECT CURRENT EASTERN EDGE OF
PRECIP TO STRUGGLE ADVANCING EAST. WITH TIME...THIS LAYER DOES
SATURATE SO MORE PREVAILING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY SPREAD FURTHER
EAST. NO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIP.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE EASTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS NORTHERLY DURING THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH CONTINUED FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP...PERHAPS EVEN IFR. BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZE TO VEER WIND FROM NNE TO ENE AT SOME
TIME IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIME-FRAME. EVENING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLGT CHC TS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
SUNDAY...VFR. SHRA LIKELY WITH TEMPO MVFR. CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BRIEF LOCAL IFR. CHANCE SHRA DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM...LOW PRESSURE HAS REDEVELOPED/CENTERED ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND TO START WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DURING THIS TIME THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG IT MAY
BECOME IS ONLY MEDIUM. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE BUT ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE...FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT BUT COULD INCREASE AGAIN
OR MAINTAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME
CONSENSUS OF A POTENTIAL TRACK FROM WI INTO MI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH NOT ONLY ITS TRACK BUT ALSO ITS STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE LOW. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND A COUPLE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITH
THE FIRST ONE AFFECTING US LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ANOTHER ONE
TOWARDS DAY 7.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY EXITED OUR REGION.
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING ACROSS OUR REGION AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO OHIO. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A LITTLE
BIT OF CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARDS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW THE
AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE SOME.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES ONLY MINIMAL REDEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY
THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO GO WITH 20 PERCENT POPS MOST
AREAS EXCEPT A LITTLE HIGHER WEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO LAFAYETTE LINE
AS RAPID REFRESH INDICATES A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED 245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
MODELS MOVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING
AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL MENTION A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.
MODELS MOVE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION. AIRMASS BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE AND WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS SUNDAY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS AS A MOS BLEND SEEMS
REASONABLE. MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING DETAILS BUT GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED. SAW NO REASON TO
ALTER ALLBLEND. A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THAT MOST
DAYS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR STORMS AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN AND
SMALL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO OCCASIONALLY SPARK CONVECTION.
LESSER CHANCES IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS A BIT STRONGER
THAN IT DOES LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOKED NEAR
AVERAGE WITH PERHAPS SOME WARMING NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 061800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
2030Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...
SHOULD SEE SOME CU START TO FORM ACROSS THE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT HRRR AND RAP SHOW ONLY ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THUS WILL PULL OUT VCTS AND JUST KEEP THE AREA DRY AND VFR THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. TIME HEIGHTS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS SO WILL INCLUDE MVFR SOMETIME
AFTER 9Z AND PROBABLY THROUGH 15Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/SMF
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FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND A COUPLE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITH
THE FIRST ONE AFFECTING US LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ANOTHER ONE
TOWARDS DAY 7.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY EXITED OUR REGION.
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING ACROSS OUR REGION AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO OHIO. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A LITTLE
BIT OF CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARDS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW THE
AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE SOME.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES ONLY MINIMAL REDEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY
THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO GO WITH 20 PERCENT POPS MOST
AREAS EXCEPT A LITTLE HIGHER WEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO LAFAYETTE LINE
AS RAPID REFRESH INDICATES A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED 245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
MODELS MOVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING
AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL MENTION A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.
MODELS MOVE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION. AIRMASS BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE AND WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS SUNDAY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS AS A MOS BLEND SEEMS
REASONABLE. MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING DETAILS BUT GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED. SAW NO REASON TO
ALTER ALLBLEND. A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THAT MOST
DAYS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR STORMS AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN AND
SMALL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO OCCASIONALLY SPARK CONVECTION.
LESSER CHANCES IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS A BIT STRONGER
THAN IT DOES LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOKED NEAR
AVERAGE WITH PERHAPS SOME WARMING NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 061800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOULD SEE SOME CU START TO FORM ACROSS THE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT HRRR AND RAP SHOW ONLY ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THUS WILL PULL OUT VCTS AND JUST KEEP THE AREA DRY AND VFR THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. TIME HEIGHTS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS SO WILL INCLUDE MVFR SOMETIME
AFTER 9Z AND PROBABLY THROUGH 15Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AND THEN PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY. AFTERWARD...SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT THIS
AREA SHOULD MOVE ON TO THE SOUTHEAST. LEAVING MOST AREAS UNDER
CHANCE POPS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES DRIER AIR ALONG HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SOME HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST.
MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION. NAM TWO METER TEMPERATURES INDICATE NEAR
80 TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THESE WILL PROVIDE WEAK FORCING AS
MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. WITH JUST WEAK FORCING
WILL ONLY GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING/AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN ANY INSTABILITY IS
HIGHEST.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY...MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED. WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A SHOWER...FEEL CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION.
UNCERTAINTY ARISES SATURDAY NIGHT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO LEAVE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR HIGHS...WENT COOLER THAN MAV MOS MOST
AREAS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA ON THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS A DOME OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. POCKETS OF UPPER
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN THE HIGHEST POPS THEN.
BUT...WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO SETTLE TOO FAR SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...LEFT AT LEAST SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED.
REGIONAL ALLBLEND HAD NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED...WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND. WITH THE FORECAST AREA
LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT BY SUNDAY...PREFER AT OR BELOW
ALLBLEND...BUT WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 061800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOULD SEE SOME CU START TO FORM ACROSS THE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT HRRR AND RAP SHOW ONLY ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUS
WILL PULL OUT VCTS AND JUST KEEP THE AREA DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. TIME HEIGHTS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS SO WILL INCLUDE MVFR
SOMETIME AFTER 9Z AND PROBABLY THROUGH 15Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1145 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MCV HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
TAKING THE LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH
AS WELL AND OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AT 19Z. THE H5 UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DEPICTED OVER WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN THE PROFILER NETWORK.
SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
HRRR AS WELL AS THE RAP AND NAM BRING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING BY 04Z. SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. THURSDAYS HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDS.
CALM AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.
THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT/RISK FOR SEVERE WX APPEARS TO BE ON SAT- SAT
NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO APPROACH LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 850MB ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND RACE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE AREA
LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON SUN...AND A SFC BOUNDARY
COULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER LACK OF UPPER
FORCING AND RISING HTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP CHCS TO SCT AND
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.
BY MON AND NEXT TUES...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FLAT
RIDGE WITH 588-594 500MB HTS SO LOOK FOR HOTTER WX. THERE WILL BE
A SFC BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB INTO NW MO. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE ANYWHERE SOUTHWEST OF THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CAPPED. 850MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST NEAR
90 IF NOT WARMER SO WILL GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDS AND THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHC FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY
AND CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. 67
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...CO
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1040 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
UPDATED THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALED THAT THERE SIMPLY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD TRIGGER TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A FAIRLY
LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT GAP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN
FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT THESE HAVE BE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY UPON ENTERING
EASTERN KENTUCKY OR NOT MAKE IT IN HERE AT ALL. THAT BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GREATLY REDUCED THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...ALSO DECIDED TO HAVE
EASTERN KENTUCKY BE PRECIPITATION FREE BY 22 OR 23Z ON SATURDAY.
LASTLY...REMOVED ANY REMAINING OUTDATED WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES...SKY...WINDS...WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST LATER ON IN
THE SHIFT TO REMOVE ANY OUTDATED WORDING AND TO REFRESH THE FORECAST
GRIDS. IF ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES OCCUR WITH THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER...TEMPERATURES...SKY...AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN
PARTICULAR...WILL ISSUE ONE FINAL UPDATE BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT
TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. AS IT STANDS...HAVE INGESTED THE LATEST ESTF DATA
TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT NOTHING MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TS ANDREA MOVING PAST THE REGION...WELL TO
THE EAST AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST. EARLIER...A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERED OVER KENTUCKY/S WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS... ALONG THE VIRGINA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THESE
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DOWN
NEAR 60...MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SKY ALSO STARTED TO BREAK UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA. THIS CLEARING LET TEMPERATURES SPIKE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. APPARENTLY...THIS IS STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO POP ANY CONVECTION DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST. THIS AREA
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IN THESE PARTS
BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SUPPORT FOR ANDREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A MINOR WAVE DOES LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA...PASSING
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME MODERATE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT KEYED IN ON THE NAM12
AND HRRR FOR NEAR TERM SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS CLEARING FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND THE WAKE SUBSIDENCE OF ANDREA DEPARTS.
THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A
SMALL THREAT LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT...
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS...
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN BOTH
THE HWO AND THE ZFP. A WEAK SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE TROPICAL STORM
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHAT EVER DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN.
LOADED THE CONSSHORT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND CONSALL FOR TD/WINDS AND MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. DID
NOT ADD MUCH TERRAIN DIFFERENCE TO THE LOWS DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS STILL AROUND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRIER MAV THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
DURING THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT A 500MB TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHOWING CONFINED AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MAKING ITS
WAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
KY...WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STARTING
OFF THE MORNING DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEAR
DURING THE DAY...AND MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES OFF THE EASTERN COAST
IN RELATION TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BOTH FROM THE EAST AND FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...THEY ARE NOT SO SETTLED ON HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE DURING THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE JACKSON AREA BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP BY SUNDAY
EVENING ACCORDING THE THE NAM AND SLIGHTLY LATER FOR THE GFS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE LEADING UP TO
THIS...THOUGH WITH ANY HEATING OR LIFT...WOULD NOT BE UNLIKELY TO
SEE A SOME ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
MAIN LINE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...PICKING
UP IN COVERAGE AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN FROM THE GULF AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A WASH OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
RESULT. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS MARGINALLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS/CONSENSUS. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO PULL OUT TUESDAY AND STRONG RIDGING PATTERN ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO
MOVE IN...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GEM
DRYING OUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN THE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL POTENTIAL RAIN MAKERS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ON EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION ARE LACKING. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW
BEST POTENTIALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
CORRELATION WITH THE BEST HEATING/INSTABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEING THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE SKIES FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AT LOZ AND SME THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE GOOD THING IS THAT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...TO A MORE WESTERLY QUARTER AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
731 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST LATER ON IN
THE SHIFT TO REMOVE ANY OUTDATED WORDING AND TO REFRESH THE FORECAST
GRIDS. IF ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES OCCUR WITH THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER...TEMPERATURES...SKY...AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN
PARTICULAR...WILL ISSUE ONE FINAL UPDATE BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT
TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. AS IT STANDS...HAVE INGESTED THE LATEST ESTF DATA
TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT NOTHING MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TS ANDREA MOVING PAST THE REGION...WELL TO
THE EAST AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST. EARLIER...A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERED OVER KENTUCKY/S WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS... ALONG THE VIRGINA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THESE
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DOWN
NEAR 60...MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SKY ALSO STARTED TO BREAK UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA. THIS CLEARING LET TEMPERATURES SPIKE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. APPARENTLY...THIS IS STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO POP ANY CONVECTION DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST. THIS AREA
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IN THESE PARTS
BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SUPPORT FOR ANDREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A MINOR WAVE DOES LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA...PASSING
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME MODERATE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT KEYED IN ON THE NAM12
AND HRRR FOR NEAR TERM SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS CLEARING FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND THE WAKE SUBSIDENCE OF ANDREA DEPARTS.
THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A
SMALL THREAT LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT...
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS...
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN BOTH
THE HWO AND THE ZFP. A WEAK SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE TROPICAL STORM
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHAT EVER DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN.
LOADED THE CONSSHORT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND CONSALL FOR TD/WINDS AND MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. DID
NOT ADD MUCH TERRAIN DIFFERENCE TO THE LOWS DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS STILL AROUND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRIER MAV THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
DURING THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT A 500MB TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHOWING CONFINED AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MAKING ITS
WAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
KY...WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STARTING
OFF THE MORNING DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEAR
DURING THE DAY...AND MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES OFF THE EASTERN COAST
IN RELATION TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BOTH FROM THE EAST AND FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...THEY ARE NOT SO SETTLED ON HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE DURING THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE JACKSON AREA BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP BY SUNDAY
EVENING ACCORDING THE THE NAM AND SLIGHTLY LATER FOR THE GFS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE LEADING UP TO
THIS...THOUGH WITH ANY HEATING OR LIFT...WOULD NOT BE UNLIKELY TO
SEE A SOME ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
MAIN LINE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...PICKING
UP IN COVERAGE AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN FROM THE GULF AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A WASH OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
RESULT. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS MARGINALLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS/CONSENSUS. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO PULL OUT TUESDAY AND STRONG RIDGING PATTERN ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO
MOVE IN...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GEM
DRYING OUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN THE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL POTENTIAL RAIN MAKERS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ON EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION ARE LACKING. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW
BEST POTENTIALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
CORRELATION WITH THE BEST HEATING/INSTABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEING THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE SKIES FOR THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AT LOZ AND SME THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE GOOD THING IS THAT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...TO A MORE WESTERLY QUARTER AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
201 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA...WITH THE AREA IN A BIT OF
A LULL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO
TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. THUS...AFTER A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGH DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AGAIN
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HAD DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SO NO UPDATE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE 0Z NAM IS ALMOST CERTAINLY OVERDOING CONVECTION ACROSS EAST KY
FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR RUNS SHOW A RELATIVELY
INACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST KY SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION NOW OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION WILL WORK TOWARD EAST
KY OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA BY DAWN. CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS WITH ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH. AT
PRESENT THERE APPEARS TO BE THINNING CLOUDS ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WELL AND IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG ENOUGH THIS MIGHT GET DENSE IN A
FEW SPOTS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
ONCE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE VA BORDER
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS A RELATIVE LULL IN
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. THE RECENT NAM AND HRRR RUNS BOTH INDICATE
THAT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY APPROACH THE CWA FROM CENTRAL KY TOWARD
DAWN. BEFORE THIS ARRIVES...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOURLY POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS...A MESOSCALE CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE DURING THE MORNING WAS ABLE TO
SPAWN A GROUP TO THE NORTH THAT HAS ROLLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO ENVELOP THE REST OF
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY UNFOLDED ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MID 80S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 70S LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND THE STORMS INTERRUPTED THE DIURNAL RISE. HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR SURGED NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH MID 60S
REPORTED ACROSS MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AT MID AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
SOME UPPER 60S OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE KEY MID LEVEL FEATURES
AFFECTING THE AREA/S FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN SOURCE
OF TROUBLE REVOLVES AROUND A LOW OVER THE GULF THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THE NAM AND SREF TAKE THIS WAVE...AND ITS SFC REFLECTION...
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER MODELS/ TRACKS AND THE NHC. THIS ALSO
IMPACTS THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
NAM ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE THE NAM
HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
ECMWF FAVORED INSTEAD. HOWEVER...THE NAM12...ALONG WITH THE HRRR...
DOES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY CURRENTLY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE USED A COMBINATION OF THESE
SOLUTIONS INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THIS FIRST WAVE WILL BE A PROMINENT
COMPONENT IN OUR WX.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
FROM THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
LEFTOVER OR STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING HELPING TO YIELD
GOOD COVERAGE. PWS WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT MAKING HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY. EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW PASSING BY TO
THE SOUTH...TO MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS...
ZFP AND HWO.
USED THE CONSSHORT FOR A STARTING POINT FOR TD AND WINDS WITH CONSALL
FOR TEMPS. GIVEN THE SATURATED AIR MASS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DID
NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON TERRAIN. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE MOS GUIDANCE WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS STARTS OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY . EVEN THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA...THE MIDWEST WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A WEAK TROUGH. A
FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A RELIEF BUT THEN
ON SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL LEAVE EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR IS SOME WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. THIS
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE MOVING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL
BLEND...THEN NUDGED THEM TO THE COOLER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
AFTER A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS ONGOING CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RANGE FROM
ZERO TO 3 AREAWIDE...SO IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP. WITH CLOUD COVER BEEN PERSISTENT...GOING TO GO WITH LIMITED
FOG AT THE TAF SITES WITH 5SM A POSSIBILITY. ANY STORMS TODAY COULD
CONTAINS SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE ANY SPECIFIC TIMING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
434 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FCST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SRN PLAINS MCS 24 HOURS AGO IS
NOW JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS PROVIDED JUST
ENOUGH ASCENT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY/S
CONVECTION TO INITIATE WIDELY SCT TSTMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACROSS N CNTRL LA IN THE VICINITY OF A THETA-E RIDGE. WEAK MID-
LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SLOW MOVEMENT AND MERGING OF INDIVIDUAL
CELLS INTO CLUSTERS. COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS HAS LED TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALREADY ACROSS
THE ERN ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS COLLAPSE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ESEWD AND EVENTUALLY OUT
OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING.
THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN
OK/N TX. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT AN MCV IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN KSPS AND I-20. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
KFWS RADAR LOOPS AND IS BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NE
SIDE OF THE MCV AND MAY JUST GRAZE THE NW ZONES. ACTIVITY ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN MORE SCT IN NATURE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THESE
TRENDS WERE PICKED UP QUITE WELL BY THE HI-RES HRRR AND WRF
MODELS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL PORTRAYED AN MCS
MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A SCENARIO
WHICH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. THUS...CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT WAS PUT
INTO THE HI-RE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF FCST PERIODS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF VERIFICATION AND POOR INITIALIZATIONS THUS FAR OF
THE LARGER SCALE OPERATIONAL MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE MCV...THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...AND COLD FRONT WILL ALL ARRIVE IN THE AREA AT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME. COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED BEYOND FRIDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS AMPLIFIES THE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND BUILD
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIM-TO-NONE CATEGORY AND WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MID 90S.
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE KEY FOR TEMPERATURES
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FCSTS BEYOND MONDAY COULD VERY
WELL BE TOO LOW. /09/
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EXPECTED IN THE
VCNTY OF A FEW OF OUR TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHV/MLU
TERMINALS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH VICINITY WORDING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
PERHAPS WITH A TEMPO GROUP OR TWO WARRANTED WHERE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. ONCE THESE STORMS DECAY...OBVIOUSLY STRONG
GUSTS WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALONG WITH A QUICK REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED WITH AN AMD PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IN THE
12Z TAF PACKAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD LOSE ITS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. /13/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 88 67 86 66 90 / 60 30 10 10 10
MLU 88 65 86 65 90 / 60 40 20 10 10
DEQ 83 58 85 60 87 / 50 20 10 10 10
TXK 84 63 84 63 87 / 60 20 10 10 10
ELD 87 63 85 62 88 / 50 40 10 10 10
TYR 84 64 85 64 90 / 60 20 10 10 10
GGG 85 65 86 64 90 / 60 20 10 10 10
LFK 88 67 88 64 91 / 50 30 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
900 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. An upper trof continues to push across eastern
Montana this evening. The airmass remains the most unstable across
the east with decent CAPE values and available moisture. The result
has been scattered thunderstorms moving along the Hi-Line and across
portions of North Central and eastern Montana. Latest RUC analysis
indicates convective activity should end by 08z. Temperatures look
reasonable. Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 0122Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds will
increase throughout the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible along the highline. Most shower activity should
remain east of KHVR so will no use VCTS or -TSRA however some
development could create brief TS near KHVR and KCTB. but with
increasing westerly winds and scattered thunderstorms through the
evening hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2013
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather during the period will
be associated with a weather disturbance aloft which will move
southeast across Montana tonight. The better lift and moisture
will be over the plains and associated mountains while southwest
Montana will see little if any lift and little moisture. Will thus
continue with the idea of the highest chances of precipitation
near the Canadian border and the lowest over far southwest
Montana. As far as the threat of stronger thunderstorms for this
evening goes will restrict the threat to northcentral Montana where
there will be the best combination of lift and instability. At this
time think any hail that develops will be less than a half-inch
and any wind gusts less than 50 mph. For Saturday and Sunday
expect a dry period as an upper ridge moves into the Pacific
Northwest Saturday and through the forecast area on Sunday. The
only possible exception will be over the far north where there
will be some moisture Saturday into Saturday night. However the
airmass will be stable so any precipitation that does develop will
be light. Blank
Sunday night through Friday...High pressure ridge dominating factor
early in the forecast period. Current models show energy moving in
from the west mostly being steered to the north and around Montana.
Exception is one small weather system that will try to slip under
the ridge clipping southwest Montana Monday night and Tuesday. Next
Pacific low pressure trough starts to push inland on Wednesday. At
this time...appears this system will maintain enough structure and
strength to move through north central and southwest Montana
Wednesday night and Thursday. Models have some differences in
tracking of trough with GFS moving it through more quickly and
putting the best chance for precipitation over north central
Montana. ECMWF is trending slower and while core of precipitation
with this model is also north, it also indicates a chance of some
rain over southwest Montana. Thunderstorms a definite possibility
during the afternoon and evening hours during the period.
Temperatures throughout the period will generally be near to
slightly above seasonal averages.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Small streams and creeks remain high and out of their banks across a
large portion of central and north central Montana. Areal flood
warnings will continue for Hill/Blaine/Fergus Counties. Point flood
warnings remain in effect for three locations: Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
These points are expected to remain near or above flood stage into
next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fall over the
flooded areas tonight...but precipitation should be light and
should not significantly affect runoff.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 49 72 46 78 / 20 10 10 0
CTB 49 71 44 75 / 50 10 10 0
HLN 53 76 48 82 / 20 0 0 0
BZN 46 75 42 82 / 20 0 0 0
WEY 39 71 36 75 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 46 75 44 82 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 53 72 48 77 / 60 10 10 0
LWT 49 68 44 74 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning through Monday morning for Blaine, Fergus, and Hill
Counties.
Flood Warning until further notice for Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS IN LT PORTION
NWS HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SMALL
IN SIZE AND RADAR HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF ANY SPRINKLES WITH THEM.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW MIGHT FALL SHORT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
THE HRRR AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
HINT OF THEM AT THIS TIME...BUT A FEW OF THE CUMULUS ELEMENTS SEEM
TO BE GAINING SOME SIZE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE FRAMES.
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA AND THE CUMULUS ARE FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE. WILL
REMOVE THE SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE MOST OF THE CUMULUS FIELD IS FROM DAY TIME HEATING THE
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SOME MOISTURE THAT LINGERS IN THE MID LEVELS DURING THE
NIGHT AND WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL WILL
IT GET WITH CLOUDS AROUND. WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS
LAST NIGHT IF THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
SKY COVER TOMORROW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. WITH
THAT IN MIND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HIGHS TODAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BRING IN ENOUGH
WARM ADVECTION TO WARM THINGS VERY MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ALOFT: AFTER THE LAST 15 DAYS OF SUPPRESSED WESTERLIES AND THE
MEAN TROF IN THE WRN USA...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THE NEXT 7
DAYS THAT WILL ESTABLISHE A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND TROFS ON BOTH
COASTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH N OF HAWAII...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE E PAC SAT AND PARK OVER TX BY TUE.
IN THE MEANTIME...A POTENT SHRTWV TROF AND 120 KT ULJ ATOP THE HIGH
WILL PRECEDE IT SAT AND ARRIVE HERE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE HIGH
OVER TX AND LOWERING HGTS OVER THE E PAC WILL SEND THE CUT-OFF LOW
/CURRENTLY OFF SRN CA/ NE...ROUNDING THE RIDGE TUE. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN REBUILD OVER THE REGION WED-THU.
SFC: AS LOW PRES TRACKS THRU MT-ND...A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NGT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COOL FRONT SAT.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM NW-SE ACROSS NEB AND KS SUN-TUE AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON ITS COOL SIDE. AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CREST THE RIDGE...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE E
ALONG THE FRONT TUE NGT INTO W. IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT WILL DROP A
LITTLE FARTHER S BUT ITS WRN EDGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TIED TO A
LEE LOW OVER NE CO.
HAZARDS: TSTMS ARE LIKELY SAT. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS ON SVR. THEN
WE NEED TO WATCH FOR MCS ACTIVITY MON-WED...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NGT: FCST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TERMINATES. THIS HAS
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MESOSCALE FORCING AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. MODEL QPFS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE 00Z AND
12Z UKMET INDICATING AN MCS...THE GFS/NAM/GEM LARGELY DRY AND THE
LAST 3 EC CYCLES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
NAM MUCAPE 600 J/KG. 1-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
THREAT FOR SVR.
SAT: IF AN MCS DOES AFFECT PART OF THE FCST AREA FRI NGT...THIS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON WHAT OCCURS SAT AFTN/EVNG. FOR NOW
HAVE TREATED THE TWO PERIODS SEPARATELY...AS IF THEY WILL NOT
AFFECT EACH OTHER. THE COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH A NARROW WARM SECTOR.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE GONE 4-6F WARMER THAN THE 4 AM GID FCST FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CINH WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. ANY LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/RAIN IN THE MRNG AND FCST TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM IN THOSE
AREAS.
SEVERE: STRENGTHENING MID-UPR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL INCREASE
0-5 KM SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES ...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ONE OF THE MORE CONCERNING
ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THAT THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC WIND
WILL BE NORMAL TO THE COOL FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS AND
LESS CLUSTERING. 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 150 M2/S2 SUGGESTS
TORNADO POTENTIAL...HIGHEST NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. IT DOES APPEAR
THE TRIPLE PT COULD BE JUST NE OF THE FCST AREA /MAYBE NEAR OFK?/.
NAM MLCAPE HAS INCREASED 24 HRS AGO AND NOW OFFERS 1000-2000 J/KG
BEFORE ITS CONVECTIVE SCHEME KICKS IN. CLUSTERING OF MODELED HEAVIER
QPF IS BEST ALONG AND E OF HWY 281 WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FRONTAL
TIMING.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
/NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING/ COULD COMPENSATE FOR
LESS THAN IDEAL THERMODYNAMICS /IE SFC DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
60S/.
SAT NGT: CLEARING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST IF THE STRONGER EC IS RIGHT.
SUN: THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND! EXCELLENT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LGT WINDS. THE 00Z/12Z EC DOES SUGGEST A SHWR
OR TWO FROM FULLERTON-OSCEOLA NEB.
MON-WED: WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX.
IN THE WARM SECTOR...SUNNY AND HOT. ON THE COOL
SIDE...P/CLOUDY...MAYBE M/CLOUDY AT TIMES?...WITH THE THREAT OF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MRNG MCS ACTIVITY. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH WE HAVE
NOTED THAT THE GEM/GFS/EC HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THEIR TSTM
CLUSTERS.
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE FOR FCST HEADACHES ON TEMPS AND PCPN
POTENTIAL. THE WAA/CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE MCS ACTIVITY OCCURS. THIS IN AND OF ITSELF
WILL REINFORCE/MODULATE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. THE
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN MCS ACTIVITY AND THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAP WILL
BE VERY SHARP. THESE ARE DETAILS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE.
USE THE FCST WITH CAUTION NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE/VE INDICATED TIME
PERIODS OF LOW POPS AND OTHER PERIODS DRY...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE IF
WE GET AN MCS ROLLING THRU HERE. AGAIN...AM NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
SUCH LOW POPS/DRY FCST. IT/S JUST TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF/WHEN/WHERE
TSTMS WILL OCCUR.
HVY RAIN: THIS SETUP WARRANTS CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
BACK-BUILDING CELL CONFIGURATIONS IF MCS ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES.
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW...THU IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW.
HEAT: PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS COULD SEE A 4-DAY HEATWAVE /90F OR
MORE/ BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUN. 100F IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR 1 OR 2 DAYS AT BEAVER CITY-PHILLIPSBURG- PLAINVILLE KS. WE
COULD SEE THIS HEAT EXPAND INTO S-CNTRL NEB TUE IF THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK N.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SPREAD INTO THE KGRI TERMINAL
AREA. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND START TO
BREAK UP THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN THE MID LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THAT IT
WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW TIMES WHEN
IT MAY GO BROKEN. EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS TO FORM AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
341 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SMALL
IN SIZE AND RADAR HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF ANY SPRINKLES WITH THEM.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW MIGHT FALL SHORT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
THE HRRR AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
HINT OF THEM AT THIS TIME...BUT A FEW OF THE CUMULUS ELEMENTS SEEM
TO BE GAINING SOME SIZE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE FRAMES.
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA AND THE CUMULUS ARE FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE. WILL
REMOVE THE SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE MOST OF THE CUMULUS FIELD IS FROM DAY TIME HEATING THE
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SOME MOISTURE THAT LINGERS IN THE MID LEVELS DURING THE
NIGHT AND WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL WILL
IT GET WITH CLOUDS AROUND. WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS
LAST NIGHT IF THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
SKY COVER TOMORROW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. WITH
THAT IN MIND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HIGHS TODAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BRING IN ENOUGH
WARM ADVECTION TO WARM THINGS VERY MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ALOFT: AFTER THE LAST 15 DAYS OF SUPPRESSED WESTERLIES AND THE
MEAN TROF IN THE WRN USA...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THE NEXT 7
DAYS THAT WILL ESTABLISHED A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND TROFS ON
BOTH COASTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH N OF HAWAII...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE E PAC SAT AND PARK
OVER TX BY TUE. IN THE MEANTIME...A POTENT SHRTWV TROF AND 120 KT
ULJ TOP THE HIGH WILL PRECEDE IT SAT AND ARRIVE HERE IN THE CNTRL
PLAINS. THE HIGH OVER TX AND LOWERING HGTS OVER THE E PAC WILL
SEND THE CUT-OFF LOW /CURRENTLY OFF SRN CA/ NE...ROUNDING THE
RIDGE TUE. THE RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE REGION WED-THU.
SFC: AS LOW PRES TRACKS THRU MT-ND...A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NGT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COOL FRONT SAT.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM NW-SE ACROSS NEB AND KS SUN-TUE AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON ITS COOL SIDE. AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CREST THE RIDGE...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE E
ALONG THE FRONT TUE NGT INTO W. IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT WILL DROP A
LITTLE FARTHER S BUT ITS WRN EDGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TIED TO A
LEE LOW OVER NE CO.
HAZARDS: TSTMS ARE LIKELY SAT. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS ON SVR. THEN
WE NEED TO WATCH FOR MCS ACTIVITY MON-WED...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NGT: FCST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TERMINATES. THIS HAS
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MESOSCALE FORCING AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. MODEL QPFS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE 00Z AND
12Z UKMET INDICATING AN MCS...THE GFS/NAM/GEM LARGELY DRY AND THE
LAST 3 EC CYCLES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
NAM MUCAPE 600 J/KG. 1-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
THREAT FOR SVR.
SAT: IF AN MCS DOES AFFECT PART OF THE FCST AREA FRI NGT...THIS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON WHAT OCCURS SAT AFTN/EVNG. FOR NOW
HAVE TREATED THE TWO PERIODS SEPARATELY...AS IF THEY WILL NOT
AFFECT EACH OTHER. THE COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH A NARROW WARM SECTOR.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE GONE 4-6F WARMER THAN THE 4 AM GID FCST FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CINH WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. ANY LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/RAIN IN THE MRNG AND FCST TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM IN THOSE
AREAS.
SEVERE: STRENGTHENING MID-UPR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL INCREASE
0-5 KM SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES ...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ONE OF THE MORE CONCERNING
ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THAT THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC WIND
WILL BE NORMAL TO THE COOL FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS AND
LESS CLUSTERING. 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 150 M2/S2 SUGGESTS
TORNADO POTENTIAL...HIGHEST NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. IT DOES APPEAR
THE TRIPLE PT COULD BE JUST NE OF THE FCST AREA /MAYBE NEAR OFK?/.
NAM MLCAPE HAS INCREASED 24 HRS AGO AND NOW OFFERS 1000-2000 J/KG
BEFORE ITS CONVECTIVE SCHEME KICKS IN. CLUSTERING OF MODELED HEAVIER
QPF IS BEST ALONG AND E OF HWY 281 WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FRONTAL
TIMING.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
/NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING/ COULD COMPENSATE FOR
LESS THAN IDEAL THERMODYNAMICS /IE SFC DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
60S/.
SAT NGT: CLEARING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST IF THE STRONGER EC IS RIGHT.
SUN: THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND! EXCELLENT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LGT WINDS. THE 00Z/12Z EC DOES SUGGEST A SHWR
OR TWO FROM FULLERTON-OSCEOLA NEB.
MON-WED: WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX.
IN THE WARM SECTOR...SUNNY AND HOT. ON THE COOL
SIDE...P/CLOUDY...MAYBE M/CLOUDY AT TIMES?...WITH THE THREAT OF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MRNG MCS ACTIVITY. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH WE HAVE
NOTED THAT THE GEM/GFS/EC HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THEIR TSTM
CLUSTERS.
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE FOR FCST HEADACHES ON TEMPS AND PCPN
POTENTIAL. THE WAA/CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE MCS ACTIVITY OCCURS. THIS IN AND OF ITSELF
WILL REINFORCE/MODULATE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. THE
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN MCS ACTIVITY AND THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAP WILL
BE VERY SHARP. THESE ARE DETAILS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE.
USE THE FCST WITH CAUTION NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE/VE INDICATED TIME
PERIODS OF LOW POPS AND OTHER PERIODS DRY...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE IF
WE GET AN MCS ROLLING THRU HERE. AGAIN...AM NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
SUCH LOW POPS/DRY FCST. IT/S JUST TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF/WHEN/WHERE
TSTMS WILL OCCUR.
HVY RAIN: THIS SETUP WARRANTS CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
BACK-BUILDING CELL CONFIGURATIONS IF MCS ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES.
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW...THU IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW.
HEAT: PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS COULD SEE A 4-DAY HEATWAVE /90F OR
MORE/ BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUN. 100F IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR 1 OR 2 DAYS AT BEAVER CITY-PHILLIPSBURG- PLAINVILLE KS. WE
COULD SEE THIS HEAT EXPAND INTO S-CNTRL NEB TUE IF THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK N.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SPREAD INTO THE KGRI TERMINAL
AREA. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND START TO
BREAK UP THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN THE MID LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THAT IT
WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW TIMES WHEN
IT MAY GO BROKEN. EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS TO FORM AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AS GOING FCST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS
SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAT LARGE SCALE FLOW UPSTREAM
WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY TO A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THEN BUILD
EWD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...QUITE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION. LATE FRIDAY THEN COMES THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
THEN COMES THIS WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
EAST. NAM/GFS/ECM STILL MAINTAIN ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOISTURE RICH
AS BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES VIA STRENGTHENING LLVL JET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COUPLED WITH STOUT MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT...STILL BELIEVE POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL TOTALS
BY SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR WRN IA.
AS FOR SVR STORM THREAT...DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS/ECM PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT BNDRY.
THE ECM PRETTY MUCH KEEPS THE SFC LOW ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER THRU
THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS IS SOUTH. IF THE ECM SOLUTION IS
EVENTUALLY PROVEN CORRECT...SRN CWA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG/SVR STORMS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND WHERE SFC
BNDRY EVENTUALLY SETS UP. LATEST HPC FRONT/PRESS GRAPHICS DEPICTS A
STATIONARY FRONT SETTING UP GENERALLY ACROSS KS AND MO MON NIGHT
THRU THURSDAY MORNING. THUS SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN SMALL POPS
AT LEAST UNTIL SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
AS FOR TEMPS...WE SHOULD BE PUSHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES THEN NEXT
WEEK AS WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 5-10KFT THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. HRRR HINTS AT MVFR CIGS FLIRTING WITH KOFK LATE
TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 8-10KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLACKENING AND BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER
SUNSET. WITH ALL SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10KT...DID NOT INCLUDE CHANGE
GROUPS FOR THE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS STILL OVERCOMING INHIBITION FROM THIS MORNING`S
THICK AND PROLONGED LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK...STILL ERODING AWAY
IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NM. THE WEST
INITIATED A TOWERING CU FIELD FIRST...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
QUITE MODEST IN THE LOWER 20S BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE SHOWN TO BE JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE WHERE
STORMS WILL FAVOR BEFORE 5 PM. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE HAS THUS FAR ONLY PRODUCED VERY SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF
WETTING RAIN WITH VISUAL INDICATORS OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT BEFORE
CLOUD GLACIATION OCCURS. IT WILL BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT ANY STORMS THAT ROLL OFF OF THESE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE. THE 18Z HRRR INDICATES STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE RATON RIDGE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM ALSO SUPPORTS THIS.
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION...AND MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WESTWARD SURGE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BETWEEN THE RIO GRANDE AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MODEST
SEEPAGE OF EAST WINDS WILL ALSO SPILL THROUGH FAVORED GAPS/CANYONS
WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AIDING.
ON FRIDAY...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOCUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEAN 0-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FROM NW TO SE AGAIN...BUT SUFFICIENT VEERING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT COULD CREATE A FEW DEVIANT MOVERS WITH STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOWS. IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...DREW
BEST SEVERE MENTION JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH
THE DRIER NATURE OF STORMS TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE KEEPING
CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT ALIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SEE SUBTLE
RISES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY...PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN
FROM THE BAJA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS WILL STEER DEEPER
MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE AND HIGHER-
BASED OR DRIER STORMS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE 592 DAM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER NM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE WHILE ONLY
DRY AND RATHER ANEMIC STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. POPS
REMAIN LOW OR NON-EXISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
SWELLS OVER THE STATE. BY LATE NEXT WEEK THE EUROPEAN SHIFTS THE
UPPER HIGH EAST WHILE A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...A BIT TOO PREMATURE FOR THE MONSOON.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...HOT...DRY AND UNSTABLE PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AIR MASS TO BECOME MOST UNSTABLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF I-40 TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXPECT ISOLATED STRONG IF
NOT BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE AIR MASS
HAS RECOVERED FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY STORMS SLOWLY TOWARD THE E-SE. GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES AGAIN TONIGHT EAST AND MUCH OF THE
NORTH...WITH IMPROVED RECOVERIES FROM THE DIVIDE WESTWARD BUT STILL
GENERALLY FAIR AT BEST. THINK A BRIEF RETURN OF GUSTY EASTERLY GAP
WINDS A GOOD BET ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY
BENEATH A WEAK NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURE/AIR MASS
RECOVERY WILL BE FAR BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE CROP OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EXPECT A GREATER NUMBER OF STRONG IF NOT
BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING AREAS
NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES FRIDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD MOST NOTABLY THE CENTRAL VALLEY CORRIDOR TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SO MOST CONCERNED WITH INVERTED-V
STORM ENVIRONMENT-- GUSTY WINDS/LIGHTNING WITH NOT MUCH RAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM
BUBBLE OF AIR EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE
BUILDS OUR DIRECTION FROM ARIZONA. MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING LESS
AND LESS FAVORABLE IN TIME BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION ARGUES FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED LATE DAY/EVENING STORMS FROM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
QUARTER. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE REINFORCED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A WILDCARD IN TERMS OF POP
PLACEMENT FOR LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES TO THE NE/EC PLAINS. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HOT...PREDOMINATELY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF DRY THUNDER
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS SUN PM. PRETTY TYPICAL
OF EARLY JUNE...WITH VERY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WE WILL BE
BATTLING A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
BUT MODELS ALWAYS SEEM TO UNDERPLAY THE DEPTH OF MIXING THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND THUS OVERPREDICTS STRENGTH OF ANY CAPPING LAYER THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE AT LIMITING CONVECTION.
BEYOND SUNDAY...GROWING CONCERNS FOR LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE FORCING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN/TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN. HAVE
TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TUE PM BUT WITH HAINES INDICES
OF 6 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COULD BE CRITICAL PERIOD DESPITE
SPEEDS WELL BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. KJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ROSION OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH 20Z WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED EARLY IN FCST PD. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS PUSHED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS EVIDENCED BY SHARPLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS AS FAR WEST AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN WESTERN
NEW MEXICO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR
MASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
GENERALLY 10-12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TSRA IMPACTS
AT KSAF AND KLVS WITH VICINITY PLACEHOLDERS FOR KABQ...KTCC AND
KROW. THE AIR MASS WILL TAKE LONGER TO DESTABILIZE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. LINGERING
CONVECTION AFTER 02Z WILL BE VERY ISOLATED WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KROW AND KLVS LATE TONIGHT. KJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 53 90 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 41 83 41 84 / 10 20 20 10
CUBA............................ 46 84 45 88 / 20 20 20 5
GALLUP.......................... 47 88 48 90 / 5 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 43 84 46 86 / 20 10 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 45 88 50 91 / 20 20 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 49 87 50 89 / 5 20 20 5
GLENWOOD........................ 55 91 57 93 / 5 20 20 10
CHAMA........................... 39 74 38 81 / 20 30 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 78 53 84 / 40 40 30 10
PECOS........................... 47 79 53 88 / 50 50 40 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 78 42 82 / 40 30 30 10
RED RIVER....................... 36 67 34 70 / 50 40 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 34 73 35 77 / 50 40 40 20
TAOS............................ 45 80 45 85 / 30 30 30 10
MORA............................ 45 74 46 81 / 50 50 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 52 83 49 91 / 10 30 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 55 81 53 87 / 30 40 30 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 84 55 89 / 20 30 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 85 62 90 / 20 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 87 65 92 / 20 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 89 59 94 / 20 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 89 61 94 / 10 20 20 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 92 61 96 / 10 20 20 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 89 63 93 / 20 20 20 5
SOCORRO......................... 64 88 64 95 / 20 20 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 82 46 84 / 40 30 30 20
TIJERAS......................... 54 84 54 92 / 40 30 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 86 52 88 / 40 40 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 77 52 85 / 60 40 40 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 79 55 88 / 50 30 30 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 80 56 88 / 30 40 30 10
RUIDOSO......................... 47 72 49 82 / 60 50 40 20
CAPULIN......................... 48 76 48 83 / 60 30 40 10
RATON........................... 49 78 50 88 / 50 30 30 10
SPRINGER........................ 51 80 52 89 / 50 30 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 75 50 84 / 60 40 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 55 81 57 91 / 30 20 30 10
ROY............................. 55 78 56 88 / 50 20 40 10
CONCHAS......................... 61 81 61 95 / 50 20 30 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 80 59 94 / 50 20 30 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 81 63 96 / 40 20 30 10
CLOVIS.......................... 59 80 61 91 / 40 20 30 10
PORTALES........................ 61 81 63 91 / 40 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 80 63 93 / 50 20 30 10
ROSWELL......................... 66 84 66 95 / 50 20 30 10
PICACHO......................... 61 82 62 92 / 60 30 30 20
ELK............................. 58 79 57 85 / 60 50 40 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1108 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE STORM WITH MORE RAIN WILL COME IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE... +RA IS BRUSHING FAR ERN PIKE/SULLIVAN/DELAWARE
CNTYS ATTM. RADAR MOSAICS/SAT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED...WITH RAINFALL TAPERING OFF AFTER 04-07Z. FLOOD WATCH
WILL STILL BE RETAINED FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHWS...PATCHY -RA/DZ SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AGN...JUST MINOR
TEMP/DEW PT TWEAKS WERE MADE.
PREV DISC... 7 PM UPDATE... THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA WERE CENTERED
OVER SE VA EARLY THIS EVE...WITH A CONTINUED STEADY NEWD HEADING
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE WRN FRINGES OF THE STEADY RAIN HAVE HAD
TROUBLE MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TWDS THE NW DURG THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVE HRS.
AS PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HANDLED THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF ANDREA QUITE WELL THE LAST 6-12 HRS...THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD SHOULD MAKE A BIT OF AN INLAND PUSH MORE
TWDS A TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA LN BY 02-03Z. HOWEVER...BY LTR
TNT...AS ANDREA TRACKS TWDS THE NJ/SRN LONG ISLAND SHORE AREAS...AND
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC IN NATURE...THE PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD PIVOT...AND START TO PUSH EWD OUT OF THE FA.
BOTTOM LN...OUTSIDE OF CAT POPS FOR STEADY RAIN IN OUR ERN
ZNS...WE`RE SIMPLY GOING TO CALL IT LGT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND HI-RES NWP GUIDANCE. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE +RA WILL EITHER BYPASS OUR
CWA TO THE E...OR JUST SCRAPE ERN PIKE/SULLIVAN CNTYS FOR A BRIEF
TIME LTR TNT. UNTIL WE SEE CLEAR EVIDENCE...HOWEVER...THAT OUR ERN
CNTYS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS...WE`LL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH.
TEMPS/DEW PTS WERE JUST TWEAKED SLIGHTLY THIS EVE.
EARLIER DISC... 4 PM UPDATE... FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR PIKE SULLIVAN
DELAWARE THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE CALL WITH THE
TROPICAL PRECIP COMING IN NOW AND LASTING INTO EARLY MORNING. QPF
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT OUR FURTHEST SE COULD GET 3 OR 4 INCHES IN
EXTREME SE SULLIVAN AND PIKE. IF THESE AMOUNTS HOLD HEADWATER
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. IN THE LAST
24 HOURS MOSTLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE WATCH AREA AND A
LITTLE TO THE NW OF THAT. HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE PA NJ BORDER
BUT MOST OF THAT GONE AND NOT MUCH YET TODAY. IN THE SE PWATS OF
1.5 INCHES WILL GIVE RAINFALL RATES WHICH WILL INCREASE TO HALF AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS AROUND MIDNIGHT. STEADY RAIN WILL
PROBABLY MOVE TO A ELM SYR LINE BUT MOST OF CENT NY WILL GET LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH.
TRACK OF ANDREA RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SO WIND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
IN THE CWA. ANDREA WILL HELP BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN AHEAD
OF IT. THE LIFT WITH IT AT LOW LEVELS AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF STRONG UL JET MEANS DEEP LIFT. ANDREA MOVES OUT INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM SO RAIN WILL END BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVG THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY THE
AFTN WITH A LITTLE HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT
NGT THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY. WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE TOUGH TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. SOME SUN
WILL PUSH TEMPS TO A70 SAT THEN 75 TO 80 SUNDAY.
A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLOW MOVING SO ONLY A
CHC OF SHOWERS SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. THE WARM FRONT GETS HERE ON
MONDAY WITH A STRONG TEMP AND MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE FRONT AHEAD
OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. SOME
CLEARING AND LARGE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY POSSIBLE IN NE PA AND
MAYBE CENT NY DURING THE AFTN AND EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
STILL FAIRLY BUSY IN THE LONG TERM...WITH TROUGHY PATTERN ONLY
GRADUALLY LETTING GO IN FAVOR OF ATTEMPTED RIDING TOWARDS THE NEXT
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WET PATTERN OF LATE...CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE LONG TERM MAY POSE WATER ISSUES FOR THE MOST
SENSITIVE AREAS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFICS OF UPPER LOW AND/OR TROUGH
PLACEMENTS...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT ON TUESDAY SOME SORT OF
ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH. AS WELL AS
CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...I ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF INSTABILITY CAN BE MANAGED. GFS
SUGGESTS FAIRLY POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD
ALLOW THUNDER.
UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES IN CENTRAL ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...WITH UNCERTAIN AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE BROADLY
AROUND IT /MORE SO IN GFS/. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FIGURED
FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON UPPER LOW DEPARTING BUT DISAGREE ON IF
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC IN ITS WAKE...YET EITHER WAY MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED SO I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO TAKE CHARGE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST FLAT
RIDGING IF NOT OUTRIGHT UPPER RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN THAT
FLOW...BUT OVERALL VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND SURFACE HIGH WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST FRIDAY...THUS I OPTED LOWER
THAN WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT
TROPICAL ANDREA CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTH WITH TIME.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...BGM AND ITH STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING PROLONGED IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LATTER LIKELY FALLING
BELOW ALTERNATE FUEL MINS AS THE OVERNIGHT HRS PROGRESS. WITH WEAK
WIND FLOW...WE EXPECT ELM AND SYR TO AGAIN FALL BELOW IFR
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN WILD CARDS REMAIN RME AND
AVP WHERE UNFAVORABLE WIND FLOW MAY KEEP THESE TWO SITES IN MVFR
THE LONGEST BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING TOWARDS AND AFTER THE 06Z
TIMEFRAME. AFTER 12Z...THE BULK OF ANDREA/S LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN EXITING TO THE EAST WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO WORK IN
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT
ELM/SYR...WITH MAINLY MVFR PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE FCST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT-SUN...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY
KELM PREDAWN HRS SUN MRNG.
SUN NGT THRU TUE...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WED...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
806 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE STORM WITH MORE RAIN WILL COME IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE... THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA WERE CENTERED OVER SE VA
EARLY THIS EVE...WITH A CONTINUED STEADY NEWD HEADING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE WRN FRINGES OF THE STEADY RAIN HAVE HAD TROUBLE
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TWDS THE NW DURG THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.
AS PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HANDLED THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF ANDREA QUITE WELL THE LAST 6-12 HRS...THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD SHOULD MAKE A BIT OF AN INLAND PUSH MORE
TWDS A TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA LN BY 02-03Z. HOWEVER...BY LTR
TNT...AS ANDREA TRACKS TWDS THE NJ/SRN LONG ISLAND SHORE AREAS...AND
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC IN NATURE...THE PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD PIVOT...AND START TO PUSH EWD OUT OF THE FA.
BOTTOM LN...OUTSIDE OF CAT POPS FOR STEADY RAIN IN OUR ERN
ZNS...WE`RE SIMPLY GOING TO CALL IT LGT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND HI-RES NWP GUIDANCE. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE +RA WILL EITHER BYPASS OUR
CWA TO THE E...OR JUST SCRAPE ERN PIKE/SULLIVAN CNTYS FOR A BRIEF
TIME LTR TNT. UNTIL WE SEE CLEAR EVIDENCE...HOWEVER...THAT OUR ERN
CNTYS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS...WE`LL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH.
TEMPS/DEW PTS WERE JUST TWEAKED SLIGHTLY THIS EVE.
PREV DISC... 4 PM UPDATE... FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR PIKE
SULLIVAN DELAWARE THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE CALL
WITH THE TROPICAL PRECIP COMING IN NOW AND LASTING INTO EARLY
MORNING. QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT OUR FURTHEST SE COULD GET 3 OR 4
INCHES IN EXTREME SE SULLIVAN AND PIKE. IF THESE AMOUNTS HOLD
HEADWATER RIVER FORECAST POINTS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS MOSTLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE WATCH AREA
AND A LITTLE TO THE NW OF THAT. HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE PA NJ
BORDER BUT MOST OF THAT GONE AND NOT MUCH YET TODAY. IN THE SE
PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL GIVE RAINFALL RATES WHICH WILL INCREASE
TO HALF AN INCH AN HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS AROUND MIDNIGHT. STEADY
RAIN WILL PROBABLY MOVE TO A ELM SYR LINE BUT MOST OF CENT NY WILL
GET LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
TRACK OF ANDREA RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SO WIND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
IN THE CWA. ANDREA WILL HELP BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN AHEAD
OF IT. THE LIFT WITH IT AT LOW LEVELS AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF STRONG UL JET MEANS DEEP LIFT. ANDREA MOVES OUT INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM SO RAIN WILL END BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVG THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY THE
AFTN WITH A LITTLE HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT
NGT THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY. WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE TOUGH TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. SOME SUN
WILL PUSH TEMPS TO A70 SAT THEN 75 TO 80 SUNDAY.
A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLOW MOVING SO ONLY A
CHC OF SHOWERS SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. THE WARM FRONT GETS HERE ON
MONDAY WITH A STRONG TEMP AND MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE FRONT AHEAD
OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. SOME
CLEARING AND LARGE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY POSSIBLE IN NE PA AND
MAYBE CENT NY DURING THE AFTN AND EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
STILL FAIRLY BUSY IN THE LONG TERM...WITH TROUGHY PATTERN ONLY
GRADUALLY LETTING GO IN FAVOR OF ATTEMPTED RIDING TOWARDS THE NEXT
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WET PATTERN OF LATE...CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE LONG TERM MAY POSE WATER ISSUES FOR THE MOST
SENSITIVE AREAS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFICS OF UPPER LOW AND/OR TROUGH
PLACEMENTS...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT ON TUESDAY SOME SORT OF
ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH. AS WELL AS
CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...I ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF INSTABILITY CAN BE MANAGED. GFS
SUGGESTS FAIRLY POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD
ALLOW THUNDER.
UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES IN CENTRAL ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...WITH UNCERTAIN AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE BROADLY
AROUND IT /MORE SO IN GFS/. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FIGURED
FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON UPPER LOW DEPARTING BUT DISAGREE ON IF
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC IN ITS WAKE...YET EITHER WAY MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED SO I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO TAKE CHARGE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST FLAT
RIDGING IF NOT OUTRIGHT UPPER RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN THAT
FLOW...BUT OVERALL VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND SURFACE HIGH WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST FRIDAY...THUS I OPTED LOWER
THAN WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT
TROPICAL ANDREA CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTH WITH TIME.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...BGM AND ITH STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING PROLONGED IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LATTER LIKELY FALLING
BELOW ALTERNATE FUEL MINS AS THE OVERNIGHT HRS PROGRESS. WITH WEAK
WIND FLOW...WE EXPECT ELM AND SYR TO AGAIN FALL BELOW IFR
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN WILD CARDS REMAIN RME AND
AVP WHERE UNFAVORABLE WIND FLOW MAY KEEP THESE TWO SITES IN MVFR
THE LONGEST BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING TOWARDS AND AFTER THE 06Z
TIMEFRAME. AFTER 12Z...THE BULK OF ANDREA/S LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN EXITING TO THE EAST WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO WORK IN
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT
ELM/SYR...WITH MAINLY MVFR PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE FCST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT-SUN...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY
KELM PREDAWN HRS SUN MRNG.
SUN NGT THRU TUE...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WED...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
708 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE STORM WITH MORE RAIN WILL COME IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE... THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA WERE CENTERED OVER SE VA
EARLY THIS EVE...WITH A CONTINUED STEADY NEWD HEADING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE WRN FRINGES OF THE STEADY RAIN HAVE HAD TROUBLE
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TWDS THE NW DURG THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.
AS PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HANDLED THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF ANDREA QUITE WELL THE LAST 6-12 HRS...THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD SHOULD MAKE A BIT OF AN INLAND PUSH MORE
TWDS A TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA LN BY 02-03Z. HOWEVER...BY LTR
TNT...AS ANDREA TRACKS TWDS THE NJ/SRN LONG ISLAND SHORE AREAS...AND
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC IN NATURE...THE PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD PIVOT...AND START TO PUSH EWD OUT OF THE FA.
BOTTOM LN...OUTSIDE OF CAT POPS FOR STEADY RAIN IN OUR ERN
ZNS...WE`RE SIMPLY GOING TO CALL IT LGT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND HI-RES NWP GUIDANCE. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE +RA WILL EITHER BYPASS OUR
CWA TO THE E...OR JUST SCRAPE ERN PIKE/SULLIVAN CNTYS FOR A BRIEF
TIME LTR TNT. UNTIL WE SEE CLEAR EVIDENCE...HOWEVER...THAT OUR ERN
CNTYS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS...WE`LL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH.
TEMPS/DEW PTS WERE JUST TWEAKED SLIGHTLY THIS EVE.
PREV DISC... 4 PM UPDATE... FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR PIKE
SULLIVAN DELAWARE THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE CALL
WITH THE TROPICAL PRECIP COMING IN NOW AND LASTING INTO EARLY
MORNING. QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT OUR FURTHEST SE COULD GET 3 OR 4
INCHES IN EXTREME SE SULLIVAN AND PIKE. IF THESE AMOUNTS HOLD
HEADWATER RIVER FORECAST POINTS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS MOSTLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE WATCH AREA
AND A LITTLE TO THE NW OF THAT. HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE PA NJ
BORDER BUT MOST OF THAT GONE AND NOT MUCH YET TODAY. IN THE SE
PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL GIVE RAINFALL RATES WHICH WILL INCREASE
TO HALF AN INCH AN HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS AROUND MIDNIGHT. STEADY
RAIN WILL PROBABLY MOVE TO A ELM SYR LINE BUT MOST OF CENT NY WILL
GET LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
TRACK OF ANDREA RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SO WIND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
IN THE CWA. ANDREA WILL HELP BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN AHEAD
OF IT. THE LIFT WITH IT AT LOW LEVELS AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF STRONG UL JET MEANS DEEP LIFT. ANDREA MOVES OUT INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM SO RAIN WILL END BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVG THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY THE
AFTN WITH A LITTLE HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT
NGT THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY. WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE TOUGH TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. SOME SUN
WILL PUSH TEMPS TO A70 SAT THEN 75 TO 80 SUNDAY.
A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLOW MOVING SO ONLY A
CHC OF SHOWERS SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. THE WARM FRONT GETS HERE ON
MONDAY WITH A STRONG TEMP AND MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE FRONT AHEAD
OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. SOME
CLEARING AND LARGE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY POSSIBLE IN NE PA AND
MAYBE CENT NY DURING THE AFTN AND EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
STILL FAIRLY BUSY IN THE LONG TERM...WITH TROUGHY PATTERN ONLY
GRADUALLY LETTING GO IN FAVOR OF ATTEMPTED RIDING TOWARDS THE NEXT
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WET PATTERN OF LATE...CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE LONG TERM MAY POSE WATER ISSUES FOR THE MOST
SENSITIVE AREAS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFICS OF UPPER LOW AND/OR TROUGH
PLACEMENTS...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT ON TUESDAY SOME SORT OF
ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH. AS WELL AS
CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...I ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF INSTABILITY CAN BE MANAGED. GFS
SUGGESTS FAIRLY POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD
ALLOW THUNDER.
UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES IN CENTRAL ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...WITH UNCERTAIN AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE BROADLY
AROUND IT /MORE SO IN GFS/. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FIGURED
FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON UPPER LOW DEPARTING BUT DISAGREE ON IF
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC IN ITS WAKE...YET EITHER WAY MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED SO I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO TAKE CHARGE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST FLAT
RIDGING IF NOT OUTRIGHT UPPER RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN THAT
FLOW...BUT OVERALL VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND SURFACE HIGH WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST FRIDAY...THUS I OPTED LOWER
THAN WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. DRIZZLE OR
SHEETS OF RAIN WITH SMALL DROPS...TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL-INFLUENCED
ATMOSPHERE...WILL ALLOW TERMINALS TO ALTERNATE BETWEEN IFR AND LOW
END MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...SETTLING INTO PRIMARILY IFR INTO
TONIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY HILLTOP SITE KBGM IN WHICH IT HAS ALREADY
BEEN PUT INTO THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE THERE.
MOIST LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
VEER TO LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS ANDREA
PASSES BY /TO OUR EAST/. IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FIGURED SATURDAY
MORNING WITH VEERING FLOW ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO ADVECT IN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT AFTN...BECOMING VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.
SAT NGT-SUN...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY
KELM PREDAWN HRS SUN MRNG.
SUN NGT THRU TUE...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WED...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HAS BROUGHT OVERCAST
SKIES WITH WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOL SIDE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK COUNTIES. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH RECENT SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST CENTER GUIDANCE
ALL POINT TOWARD RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE SREF PLUME GUIDANCE SHOWS
A FEW MEMBERS AS HIGH A TWO TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES. THIS RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE AREA CREEKS AND STEAMS TO RISE ALONG WITH SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IN URBAN AREAS.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS TWO FOCUS AREAS OF WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL IN BETWEEN. ONE IS LOCATED PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THE OTHER IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE
AREAS OF RAIN MATCH UP WELL WITH RAP MODEL 850MB 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
PLACEMENT WHICH IS PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THIS MORNINGS 12Z BUF RAOB SHOWED A SATURATED PROFILE THROUGH THE
COLUMN WITH 1.3 INCH PWAT. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AIRMASS
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS PWATS OF 1.5
INCH AND HIGHER. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AS LEADING
AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IS WEAKENING. THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP A LID ON
TEMPS WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 60S.
LOOKING UPSTREAM FOR SOME SIGN OF WHEN RAIN WILL TAPER OFF...THE
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THIS WITH THE RADAR LOOP PLACES THE BACK EDGE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 00Z. UNTIL THEN EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVIER POCKETS ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER
WESTERN NY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN AFTER WE SEE THE STEADIER
RAINFALL TAPERING OFF WE CAN EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOIST
PLUME WHICH HAS FORMED INTO A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE EXTENDING
BACK INTO INDIANA. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS WOULD
CALL FOR RAIN TO END OR TAPER OFF CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS WNY THEN
EARLY MORNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THICK CLOUD
COVER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RAIN WILL SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY...
HOWEVER MOST 00Z MODELS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH WHICH WILL LIKELY PROLONG THE STEADIER RAIN PATTERN ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
RICH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA LOOKS TO BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST
THETA-E AIR LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY LIMITED
IMPACT TO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS SYSTEM DOES BEARS WATCHING AS A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK WOULD BRING GREATER CONCERNS FOR HEAVIER RAINS
TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT SLOWLY
ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR
MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOR BELOW NORMAL READING WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A PERIOD OF AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. WHILE A IT IS A FAIRLY NARROW
WINDOW...CONSENSUS HAS CONSISTENTLY POINTED TO SUNDAY AS THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND
+12C BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES. LOCAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE LAKESHORES QUITE A BIT COOLER.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO YET ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WHICH WILL DIG
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER
DYNAMIC...AND WILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT TO
WORK WITH. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EUROPEAN/GGEM DOES NOT
DIG QUITE AS DEEP WITH THIS TROF...WHICH KEEPS THE COLDER AIR TO THE
NORTH MORE SO THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BECAUSE OF THIS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MORE SEASONABLE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND MONDAY. THIS TROF AXIS IS LIKELY TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TODAY WITH MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CIGS. REMOVED VCTS FROM THE
TAF AS ANY LINGERING LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE NOW MOVED EAST OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY. WITH BRISK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
DOWNSLOPING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS BUT TEMPO IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAINS. THE BULK
OF THE STEADY RAINS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
00Z. ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ONCE
THE STEADIER RAINFALL ENDS. SOME INCLUSION OF A TREND TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST CONDITIONS TODAY OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES BETWEEN THE NIAGARA RIVER AND HAMLIN
BEACH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE AND ALONG
THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER. ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ030-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1136 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
POST TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 11 PM FRI...UPDATE TO REMOVE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION AS POST TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA QUICKLY LIFTS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. EFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM HAVE ESSENTIALLY ENDED BUT THE WATERS IN THE SOUNDS ARE
STILL RECOVERING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST ALLOWING WATERS TO
RECEDE NORTH OF RODANTHE BUT WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOUT A FOOT
AT HATTERAS COAST GUARD STATION AND CONVERSELY HAVE DROPPED ABOUT
A FOOT AND A HALF ALONG THE PAMLICO RIVER. THE WATERS IN THE
SOUNDS ARE EXPECTED TO STABILIZE SAT MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COUNTIES
AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HRRR AND WRF
MODELS PUSH THESE SHOWERS INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AND ADD MENTION
OF THUNDER. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND NEAR MATCHING THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROF IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL
AFTERNOON HEATING. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SW WINDS AND
WARMING WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME
AFTERNOON STORM CUD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE
INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE
MAIN THREATS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN US WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CIRCULATE WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH A LINGERING TROUGH LOCATED WELL INLAND.
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH ALOFT WE EXPECT THIS TO LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CAN`T RULE OUT A LOW END
SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH WEAK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINS DUE TO THE HIGH PW VALUES AND
AMPLE CAPE.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO MORE AMPLIFICATION EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL SHARPEN SFC GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN NC AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSHOWERS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN RESPONSE. LOOKS LIKE UPR TROUGH AND FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED TAKING WITH IT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS
ECMWF/GFS 07/12Z RUNS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 11 PM FRI...RAIN ASSOC WITH TS ANDREA HAS LIFTED N OF THE
AREA AND SEEING VFR DOMINATING LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND COULD SEE A FEW TSTMS DEVELOP AS WELL...WHICH COULD
BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SWLY FLOW CONTINUES SAT WITH GUSTS AROUND
15-20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL LIKELY BRING SCT CONVECTION MUCH OF SAT AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSHOWERS ON SUNDAY
WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT RADIATION FG/BR...AND TEMPO VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN THUNDERSHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 11 PM FRI...S/SW WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING
AND HAVE DROPPED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. WINDS AROUND 20-30
KT WILL DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SAT. SEAS AROUND 6-12 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 8 FT THRU
SATURDAY. EXPECT SCA TO END IN THE SOUNDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT SAT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI... SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT SAT
NIGHT... THOUGH LINGERING SEAS ABOVE 6 FEET STILL EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. PRED SW FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY...WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT MON EVENING INTO TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW WAVES BUILDING TO 6FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE MON INTO
TUE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TUE WITH WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDING BY MID WEEK.
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...WATER LVLS EXPECTED TO RISE 1 TO 3 FT ABOVE MSL
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE CST AND WRN/NRN PAMLICO SOUND
AS WINDS PEAK. THE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE ROUGH
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ150-152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/RF/TL
MARINE...BTC/RF/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1022 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
POST-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA
TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING
BENNETTSVILLE SC FROM THE WEST. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (14000+ FT)
MEAN WE WOULD NEED TO SEE 50 DBZ RADAR REFLECTIVITY AT AN ALTITUDE
OF AT LEAST 35000 FT AGL FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND SO FAR THESE STORMS
HAVE DISPLAYED A MUCH SHALLOWER REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE. ASIDE FROM
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME 25-30 MPH WIND
GUSTS THESE STORMS DO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD AT THIS TIME.
THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT COULD BE A SHOWERY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS
SHOW PERHAPS LESSER CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAKING IT DOWN TO THE
COAST SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUT OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
NOW THAT ANDREA IS OUT OF OUR HAIR...ATTENTION IS TURNING UPSTREAM
TO AN IMPRESSIVE LITTLE VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT
IS HELPING SUPPORT QUITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA
INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE ALL MODELS SHOW THE HEART OF THIS
DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...AN ASSOCIATED 200/300 MB JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE LIFT
EVEN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERMALLY...LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEPER THAN THE MOIST
ADIABATIC RATE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP
CONVECTION GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME CAPPED OFF DUE TO A COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED FROM 950 MB WOULD
ONLY HAVE TO OVERCOME A SMALL NEGATIVE REGION TO RELEASE 500-1000
J/KG OF CAPE.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF
AUGUSTA GA SHOWS IT COULD BE MOVING INTO FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 11 PM. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF CHARLOTTE COULD MOVE INTO THE PEE DEE REGION NORTH OF
FLORENCE BY 11 PM. THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST POTENTIAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE 11PM TO 2 AM TIME
FRAME. LESSER COVERAGE IS INDICATED AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE CAPE FEAR COAST AFTER 2 AM. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST HAVE
FOCUSED ON THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL
BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO START THE DAY IN EXCESS
OF ONE AND A HALF INCHES. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED
ABOVE 10 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING
THE EVE AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY SKIM PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LATE AT NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACTUALLY INCREASE AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WEAK CAP HANGING ON THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS MAY SERVE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO
FOCUS/CONVERGE/LIFT MOISTURE BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...AND SO
THERE MAY BE A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE BOUNDARY ON THAT DAY.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ALTHOUGH THE GROUND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SEVERAL WILL APPROACH FLOOD STAGE.
AT THIS TIME...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
FEAR RIVER AROUND WILLIAM O HUSKE.
TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S WITH PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING WELL INLAND...
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SO IT WILL FEEL HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DAMPENING OUT. THE REGION WILL BE IN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE FLOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE SECOND
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANDREA IS NOW WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA...AND CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED WITH VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM...BUT HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH FOR THESE TERMS JUST IN CASE. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-10 KTS ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS INLAND MAY
WEAKEN TO AOB 5 KTS BEFORE DAYBREAK...SO MVFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED AND SO DID NOT MENTION PCPN IN THESE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST IN THE AFTN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN-LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
POST-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND HER
EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF ANDREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DIMINISH...AND ARE STILL
BEING MEASURED AT 13 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND 6-8
FEET AT THE NEARSHORE BUOY ARRAY NEAR CAPE FEAR. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST IS TO INCREASE FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS
NEARSHORE WHERE THE OCEAN CREST PIER WAVE GAUGE IS SHOWING 6 FT SEAS
JUST OUTSIDE THE SURF ZONE...IMPLYING SUBSTANTIAL UPWARD REVISIONS
OF UP TO +4 FEET ARE NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECASTS WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF SHORE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE ITS
PASSAGE DOWN TO THE COAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH AFTER 2 AM...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING
DRY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ROUGH SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY
SAT...BUT A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SAT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. SW WINDS SAT AND SAT NIGHT
WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO SSW SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE BUILDING WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE REORIENTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO START FROM 3 TO 4 FEET WITH ISOLATED
5 FOOTERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. AS THE FRONTAL BOUND DRAWS NEAR TO THE
MARINE WATERS A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...HAWKINS
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
914 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
POST-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA
TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...TIDAL ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON
RIVER GAUGE WERE AS HIGH AS +2.1 FEET EARLIER TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN STORM SURGE FROM ANDREA...AND NOW THAT ANDREA IS GONE THIS
ANOMALY HAS EVAPORATED WITH THE LATEST FEW HOURS OF DATA SHOWING A
NEAR ZERO ANOMALY. IT WOULD TAKE AT LEAST A +0.6 FOOT ANOMALY TO HIT
THE 5.50 FOOT MLLW FLOODING THRESHOLD...THEREFORE THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...
NOW THAT ANDREA IS OUT OF OUR HAIR...ATTENTION IS TURNING UPSTREAM
TO AN IMPRESSIVE LITTLE VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT
IS HELPING SUPPORT QUITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA
INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE ALL MODELS SHOW THE HEART OF THIS
DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...AN ASSOCIATED 200/300 MB JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE LIFT
EVEN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERMALLY...LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEPER THAN THE MOIST
ADIABATIC RATE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP
CONVECTION GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME CAPPED OFF DUE TO A COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED FROM 950 MB WOULD
ONLY HAVE TO OVERCOME A SMALL NEGATIVE REGION TO RELEASE 500-1000
J/KG OF CAPE.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF
AUGUSTA GA SHOWS IT COULD BE MOVING INTO FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 11 PM. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF CHARLOTTE COULD MOVE INTO THE PEE DEE REGION NORTH OF
FLORENCE BY 11 PM. THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST POTENTIAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE 11PM TO 2 AM TIME
FRAME. LESSER COVERAGE IS INDICATED AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE CAPE FEAR COAST AFTER 2 AM. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST HAVE
FOCUSED ON THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL
BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO START THE DAY IN EXCESS
OF ONE AND A HALF INCHES. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED
ABOVE 10 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING
THE EVE AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY SKIM PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LATE AT NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACTUALLY INCREASE AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WEAK CAP HANGING ON THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS MAY SERVE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO
FOCUS/CONVERGE/LIFT MOISTURE BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...AND SO
THERE MAY BE A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE BOUNDARY ON THAT DAY.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ALTHOUGH THE GROUND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SEVERAL WILL APPROACH FLOOD STAGE.
AT THIS TIME...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
FEAR RIVER AROUND WILLIAM O HUSKE.
TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S WITH PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING WELL INLAND...
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SO IT WILL FEEL HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DAMPENING OUT. THE REGION WILL BE IN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE FLOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE SECOND
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANDREA IS NOW WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA...AND CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED WITH VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM...BUT HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH FOR THESE TERMS JUST IN CASE. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-10 KTS ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS INLAND MAY
WEAKEN TO AOB 5 KTS BEFORE DAYBREAK...SO MVFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED AND SO DID NOT MENTION PCPN IN THESE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST IN THE AFTN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...POST-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS NOW WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA AND HER EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF ANDREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20
KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
DIMINISH...AND ARE STILL BEING MEASURED AT 13 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN
SHOALS BUOY...AND 6-8 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE BUOY ARRAY NEAR CAPE
FEAR. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST IS TO INCREASE
FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS NEARSHORE WHERE THE OCEAN CREST PIER WAVE
GAUGE IS SHOWING 6 FT SEAS JUST OUTSIDE THE SURF ZONE...IMPLYING
SUBSTANTIAL UPWARD REVISIONS OF UP TO +4 FEET ARE NEEDED TO THE
MARINE FORECASTS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF SHORE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE ITS
PASSAGE DOWN TO THE COAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH AFTER 2 AM...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING
DRY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ROUGH SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY
SAT...BUT A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SAT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. SW WINDS SAT AND SAT NIGHT
WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO SSW SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE BUILDING WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE REORIENTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO START FROM 3 TO 4 FEET WITH ISOLATED
5 FOOTERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. AS THE FRONTAL BOUND DRAWS NEAR TO THE
MARINE WATERS A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...HAWKINS
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
850 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING BUT
THREATS AND IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS TS ANDREA TRACKS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT SW/W AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION PASSES BY TO THE NW THIS EVE THEN
BNDRY LAYER DECOUPLING ALLOWS WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO SOUNDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUND SIDE
OF THE OBX NORTH OF RODANTHE. OREGON INLET MARINA IS REPORTING
WATER LEVELS ABOUT 2.3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AS WE MOVE INTO HIGH TIDE.
CONVERSELY WE ARE SEEING LOW WATER LEVELS AROUND 2-4 FT BELOW
NORMAL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND...ESPECIALLY THE
NEUSE RIVER.
PCPN HAD WANED ACROSS ERN EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONTINUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE ARE SHOWERS ARE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION BUT HRRR AND WRF PUSH
THESE SHOWERS INTO THE REGION AFTER 01Z AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
LATE THIS EVENING. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND NEAR
MATCHING THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROF IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL
AFTERNOON HEATING. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SW WINDS AND
WARMING WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME
AFTERNOON STORM CUD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE
INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE
MAIN THREATS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN US WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CIRCULATE WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH A LINGERING TROUGH LOCATED WELL INLAND.
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH ALOFT WE EXPECT THIS TO LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CAN`T RULE OUT A LOW END
SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH WEAK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINS DUE TO THE HIGH PW VALUES AND
AMPLE CAPE.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO MORE AMPLIFICATION EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL SHARPEN SFC GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN NC AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSHOWERS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN RESPONSE. LOOKS LIKE UPR TROUGH AND FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED TAKING WITH IT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS
ECMWF/GFS 07/12Z RUNS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
RAIN ASSOC WITH TS ANDREA HAS LIFTED N OF THE AREA AND SEEING A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS RTES. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS EVENING WITH VFR DOMINATING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AS
DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SWLY FLOW
CONTINUES SAT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY BRING SCT
CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSHOWERS ON SUNDAY
WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT RADIATION FG/BR...AND TEMPO VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN THUNDERSHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
S/SW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT WITH
SEAS AROUND 6-12 FT REPORTED BY THE BUOYS BUT EXPECT UP TO 15 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS ANDREA RAPIDLY LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. BY LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...CONTINUING THRU
SATURDAY. AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO
5 TO 8 FT THRU SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI... SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT SAT
NIGHT... THOUGH LINGERING SEAS ABOVE 6 FEET STILL EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. PRED SW FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY...WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT MON EVENING INTO TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW WAVES BUILDING TO 6FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE MON INTO
TUE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TUE WITH WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDING BY MID WEEK.
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...WATER LVLS EXPECTED TO RISE 1 TO 3 FT ABOVE MSL
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE CST AND WRN/NRN PAMLICO SOUND
AS WINDS PEAK. THE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE ROUGH
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-092>095-098-103-
104.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SK/RF/TL
MARINE...SK/RF/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
738 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
POST-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA
TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...NOW THAT ANDREA IS OUT OF OUR HAIR...ATTENTION
IS TURNING UPSTREAM TO AN IMPRESSIVE LITTLE VORT MAX OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT IS HELPING SUPPORT QUITE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
WHILE ALL MODELS SHOW THE HEART OF THIS DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...AN ASSOCIATED 200/300
MB JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE LIFT EVEN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERMALLY...LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEPER THAN THE MOIST
ADIABATIC RATE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP
CONVECTION GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME CAPPED OFF DUE TO A COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED FROM 950 MB WOULD
ONLY HAVE TO OVERCOME A SMALL NEGATIVE REGION TO RELEASE 500-1000
J/KG OF CAPE.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF
AUGUSTA GA SHOWS IT COULD BE MOVING INTO FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 11 PM. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF CHARLOTTE COULD MOVE INTO THE PEE DEE REGION NORTH OF
FLORENCE BY 11 PM. THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST POTENTIAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE 11PM TO 2 AM TIME
FRAME. LESSER CONVERAGE IS INDICATED AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE CAPE FEAR COAST AFTER 2 AM. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST HAVE
FOCUSED ON THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL
BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO START THE DAY IN EXCESS
OF ONE AND A HALF INCHES. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED
ABOVE 10 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING
THE EVE AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY SKIM PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LATE AT NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACTUALLY INCREASE AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WEAK CAP HANGING ON THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS MAY SERVE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO
FOCUS/CONVERGE/LIFT MOISTURE BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...AND SO
THERE MAY BE A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE BOUNDARY ON THAT DAY.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ALTHOUGH THE GROUND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SEVERAL WILL APPROACH FLOOD STAGE.
AT THIS TIME...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
FEAR RIVER AROUND WILLIAM O HUSKE.
TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S WITH PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING WELL INLAND...
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SO IT WILL FEEL HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DAMPENING OUT. THE REGION WILL BE IN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE FLOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE SECOND
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANDREA IS NOW WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA...AND CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED WITH VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM...BUT HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH FOR THESE TERMS JUST IN CASE. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-10 KTS ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS INLAND MAY
WEAKEN TO AOB 5 KTS BEFORE DAYBREAK...SO MVFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED AND SO DID NOT MENTION PCPN IN THESE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST IN THE AFTN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...POST-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS NOW WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA AND HER EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF ANDREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20
KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
DIMINISH...AND ARE STILL BEING MEASURED AT 13 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN
SHOALS BUOY...AND 6-8 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE BUOY ARRAY NEAR CAPE
FEAR. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST IS TO INCREASE
FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS NEARSHORE WHERE THE OCEAN CREST PIER WAVE
GAUGE IS SHOWING 6 FT SEAS JUST OUTSIDE THE SURF ZONE...IMPLYING
SUBSTANTIAL UPWARD REVISIONS OF UP TO +4 FEET ARE NEEDED TO THE
MARINE FORECASTS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF SHORE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE ITS
PASSAGE DOWN TO THE COAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH AFTER 2 AM...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING
DRY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ROUGH SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY
SAT...BUT A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SAT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. SW WINDS SAT AND SAT NIGHT
WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO SSW SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE BUILDING WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE REORIENTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO START FROM 3 TO 4 FEET WITH ISOLATED
5 FOOTERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. AS THE FRONTAL BOUND DRAWS NEAR TO THE
MARINE WATERS A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...HAWKINS
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
102 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT
OF ANTICIPATED FOG FORMATION. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS
INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MAY INTRUDE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND THAT AREA
REMAINS THE BEST BET FOR FOG FORMATION. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AROUND
2000-3000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING WESTWARD...AND IF IT
LINGERS OVER THE JAMES RIVER BASIN IT MAY ACT TO INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND AND LOWERING
TEMPERATURES FOR BEST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. THUS IT MAY BE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA THAT
MIGHT ALSO LIMIT FOG FORMATION IN THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
AS PREVIOUSLY STATED THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS EVENING IS FOG.
FOR THIS UPDATE AREAS OF WIDESPREAD FOG WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN
A HIGHLIGHTED REGION BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN ALONG THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE FOG
THIS EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN
THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ERODE...WINDS DIE DOWN OR GO CALM...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
STARTS IN ERNEST...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SHOULD PULL EVEN
LATER THIS EVENING. THE 00 UTC NAM AND 00 UTC RAP...ALONG WITH THE
00 UTC HRRR SHOW THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND FOG BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 07 UTC AND 09
UTC.
UPDATED THE REST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALL UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS EVENING UPDATE. THE MAIN
PROBLEM OF THE EVENING WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS IN FAVOR FOR FOG INCLUDE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN...NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
CONDITIONS IN FAVOR OF NO FOG DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE...THICK CLOUD
DECK OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING...DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FOG FORECAST. WILL
MONITOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE
IF CHANGES NEED TO BE MADE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE
SMALL UPDATES TO SKY CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO REFLECT THE SLOWER
CLEARING AND THICKER COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. UPDATED ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALL UPDATED ITEMS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
MORE THAN AMPLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR UP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. WITH THESE BASIC INGREDIENTS
FOR FOG...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND WILL LET
LATER FORECASTS FURTHER EVALUATE AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME.
OVERLAND FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF WARD COUNTY...AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...PIERCE...ROLETTE...BURKE...AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD ADVISORY. AS WATER
RECEDES INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS AND ROADS ARE SIGNED MAY BE ABLE TO
TRANSITION FROM AREA FLOODING TO JUST RIVER POINT FLOODING EITHER
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...HAVE EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD
ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT PROPAGATING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 400-800 J/KG SUGGEST A LIMIT
ON THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT...WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING MORE OF A
CONCERN WITH SATURATED SOILS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.25 INCHES. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
OCCLUDE WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WILL BE RECEIVED IN LIGHT OF CONTINUING CONVECTION FROM
OVERNIGHT TO DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION INCREASE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AS IT PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. THEREAFTER A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE CONUS...SUPPORTING
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH RIDGE RUNNING IMPULSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
KEPT THE MENTION OF SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MVFR/IFR HEIGHT OVER THE
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING TIMING OR AREAL EXTENT
OF ANTICIPATED FOG FORMATION. ADDED MENTION OF SCT CLOUDS AROUND
2000 FEET AT KJMS MOVING IN FROM KFAR AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
OVERLAND FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF WARD COUNTY...AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...PIERCE...ROLETTE...BURKE...AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD ADVISORY. AS WATER
RECEDES INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS AND ROADS ARE SIGNED MAY BE ABLE TO
TRANSITION FROM AREA FLOODING TO JUST RIVER POINT FLOODING EITHER
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...HAVE EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD
ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL COMBINE TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVES QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A SHADE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS CLEARLY SHOW THE
VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...UNDERNEATH A RATHER AMPLIFIED HIGH-
LATITUDE RIDGE. THESE SAME LOOPS AND ACCOMPANYING IR LOOPS ALSO
CLEARLY SHOW A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY /CURRENTLY IN ERN MO AND WRN IL/ IN A BELT OF STRONGER
WSWLY FLOW IN THE LARGER SCALE/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH BISECTS IOWA AND MISSOURI. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN
IL/ERN MO SHORTWAVE...LOCAL RADAR VWPS AND REFLECTIVITY LOOPS HAVE
CLEARLY CAPTURED THE PASSAGE OF A MORE SUBTLE/WEAK WAVE THROUGH
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH KILN VWP DATA SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL
BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LAST EVENING AND NOW VEERING IN
RECENT HOURS /SINCE 04Z/ AS THE WAVE PASSES. THIS WAVE HAS ALLOWED
FOR A RENEWED SPATE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTL/SCNTL OHIO WITH
IMPRESSIVE RAIN RATES /1.05" AT KCMH IN ABOUT 30 MIN/ AND JUST A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE ACTIVITY NOW FOCUSES MORE ON NERN
OH.
THE 06.00Z KILN RAOB WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 150 J/KG AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN
25KTS...WHICH EXPLAINS THE OVERALL POOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION
SEEN TONIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR /MOIST ADIABATIC/ AND
PWAT MEASURED A HEALTHY 1.31" - ABOUT 125% OF EARLY JUNE NORMALS.
PROBABLY OF MOST IMPORTANCE WAS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT HAS BEEN DRIFTING NW THROUGH OH SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND THIS APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED OUT RIGHT ALONG OR
JUST TO THE EAST OF I-71 FROM NEAR KCVG TO KILN TO KCMH TO JUST
NORTH OF KCAK. IT IS IN THIS VICINITY THAT STORMS HAVE FLARED
TONIGHT WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VASTLY MORE MOIST
AIRMASS FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY ON WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW.
ATTENDANT TO THE WRN IL/ERN MO WAVE...WAS A HEALTHY CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING INTO WRN KY WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHRA AND
COOLING CLOUD TOPS NORTH OF THERE INDICATING ASCENT IS SPREADING
OUR WAY FOR TODAY.
LAST 3-4 RUNS OF NCEP RAP /WITH AGREEMENT FROM MORE ADVANCED ESRL
RAP/ IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT FORCING FOR UVM WITH THE IL/MO
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO THE TRI STATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG/SOUTH OF I-71
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. HIGHER RES HRRR RUNS RECENTLY HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BULLISH - FOCUSING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THIS
SIGNAL MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG - BUT GIVEN THE DRAPED OUT
BOUNDARY...THE APPROACHING WAVE...AND DEEPER MOISTURE THERE COULD
BE SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LINE
UP THIS MORNING. NCEP HIRES-WINDOW RUNS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH NOR
ARE OTHER CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE RAP/HRRR AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING TO BRING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SRN AREAS. LESSER
CHANCES NORTH. BY LATER AFTERNOON MUCH OF THIS LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HAVE EXITED - BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL
DRAPED...AND RESIDUAL WEAK WAVES IN BROAD SWLY FLOW...STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP AT PEAK HEATING INTO THE EVENING ESP ON SRN FLANK OF
DEPARTING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
DEEP LAYER FLOW IS MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION /35KTS OF BULK
SHEAR/ BUT ENOUGH SREF SIGNAL IS THERE FOR PROBS THAT A FEW
UPDRAFTS COULD BE STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE SOUTH /THINKING
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER/ FOR A WIND THREAT. NOT AS SOLD ON A HAIL
THREAT WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENV AND WEAK INSTBY.
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON TEMPS TODAY BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN TO GET US INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE MORNING
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY HOLD US BACK HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER US TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH MUCH LESS LARGER SCALE FORCING. DESPITE
THAT...THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEPER MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS/FEW STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME. THE CHARACTER OF THE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...EVEN INTO SATURDAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS ALL 3 DAYS MOSTLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
THINK BY SATURDAY - THE FORCING SIGNAL AND LOW LEVEL FOCI FOR
CONVECTION ARE TOO MUTED TO CONTINUE A RAIN CHANCE...THOUGH
DEEPER MOISTURE STILL LINGERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BRING A BREAK TO PRECIP...WITH STRONG
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SC AND SW CONUS...SO THAT A VIGOROUS
TROUGH TO APPROACH THE REGION SUN EVENING LOOKS TO BRING AN ACTIVE
GREAT LAKES PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES RIDE OVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN AN ACTIVE PRECIP PATTERN AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS UNDER NW FLOW. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEVELOPS
IN NW-SE FASHION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL
BE AN ACTIVE MCS ZONE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG BEFORE TROUGHING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WAVE LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY
IS MOVING IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE PCPN APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY
SHOWERS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LINGERING
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW
MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY HELP KEEP
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS A BIT MORE ISOLATED SO WILL JUST HANG ON
TO A VCTS TO COVER THE THREAT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD THEN LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. IF WE ARE ABLE TO
GET ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE SOME BR
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
352 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL COMBINE TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVES QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A SHADE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS CLEARLY SHOW THE
VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...UNDERNEATH A RATHER AMPLIFIED HIGH-
LATITUDE RIDGE. THESE SAME LOOPS AND ACCOMPANYING IR LOOPS ALSO
CLEARLY SHOW A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY /CURRENTLY IN ERN MO AND WRN IL/ IN A BELT OF STRONGER
WSWLY FLOW IN THE LARGER SCALE/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH BISECTS IOWA AND MISSOURI. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN
IL/ERN MO SHORTWAVE...LOCAL RADAR VWPS AND REFLECTIVITY LOOPS HAVE
CLEARLY CAPTURED THE PASSAGE OF A MORE SUBTLE/WEAK WAVE THROUGH
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH KILN VWP DATA SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL
BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LAST EVENING AND NOW VEERING IN
RECENT HOURS /SINCE 04Z/ AS THE WAVE PASSES. THIS WAVE HAS ALLOWED
FOR A RENEWED SPATE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTL/SCNTL OHIO WITH
IMPRESSIVE RAIN RATES /1.05" AT KCMH IN ABOUT 30 MIN/ AND JUST A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE ACTIVITY NOW FOCUSES MORE ON NERN
OH.
THE 06.00Z KILN RAOB WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 150 J/KG AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN
25KTS...WHICH EXPLAINS THE OVERALL POOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION
SEEN TONIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR /MOIST ADIABATIC/ AND
PWAT MEASURED A HEALTHY 1.31" - ABOUT 125% OF EARLY JUNE NORMALS.
PROBABLY OF MOST IMPORTANCE WAS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT HAS BEEN DRIFTING NW THROUGH OH SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND THIS APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED OUT RIGHT ALONG OR
JUST TO THE EAST OF I-71 FROM NEAR KCVG TO KILN TO KCMH TO JUST
NORTH OF KCAK. IT IS IN THIS VICINITY THAT STORMS HAVE FLARED
TONIGHT WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VASTLY MORE MOIST
AIRMASS FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY ON WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW.
ATTENDANT TO THE WRN IL/ERN MO WAVE...WAS A HEALTHY CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING INTO WRN KY WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHRA AND
COOLING CLOUD TOPS NORTH OF THERE INDICATING ASCENT IS SPREADING
OUR WAY FOR TODAY.
LAST 3-4 RUNS OF NCEP RAP /WITH AGREEMENT FROM MORE ADVANCED ESRL
RAP/ IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT FORCING FOR UVM WITH THE IL/MO
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO THE TRI STATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG/SOUTH OF I-71
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. HIGHER RES HRRR RUNS RECENTLY HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BULLISH - FOCUSING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THIS
SIGNAL MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG - BUT GIVEN THE DRAPED OUT
BOUNDARY...THE APPROACHING WAVE...AND DEEPER MOISTURE THERE COULD
BE SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LINE
UP THIS MORNING. NCEP HIRES-WINDOW RUNS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH NOR
ARE OTHER CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE RAP/HRRR AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING TO BRING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SRN AREAS. LESSER
CHANCES NORTH. BY LATER AFTERNOON MUCH OF THIS LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HAVE EXITED - BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL
DRAPED...AND RESIDUAL WEAK WAVES IN BROAD SWLY FLOW...STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP AT PEAK HEATING INTO THE EVENING ESP ON SRN FLANK OF
DEPARTING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
DEEP LAYER FLOW IS MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION /35KTS OF BULK
SHEAR/ BUT ENOUGH SREF SIGNAL IS THERE FOR PROBS THAT A FEW
UPDRAFTS COULD BE STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE SOUTH /THINKING
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER/ FOR A WIND THREAT. NOT AS SOLD ON A HAIL
THREAT WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENV AND WEAK INSTBY.
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON TEMPS TODAY BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN TO GET US INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE MORNING
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY HOLD US BACK HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER US TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH MUCH LESS LARGER SCALE FORCING. DESPITE
THAT...THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEPER MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS/FEW STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME. THE CHARACTER OF THE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...EVEN INTO SATURDAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS ALL 3 DAYS MOSTLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
THINK BY SATURDAY - THE FORCING SIGNAL AND LOW LEVEL FOCI FOR
CONVECTION ARE TOO MUTED TO CONTINUE A RAIN CHANCE...THOUGH
DEEPER MOISTURE STILL LINGERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BRING A BREAK TO PRECIP...WITH STRONG
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SC AND SW CONUS...SO THAT A VIGOROUS
TROUGH TO APPROACH THE REGION SUN EVENING LOOKS TO BRING AN ACTIVE
GREAT LAKES PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES RIDE OVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN AN ACTIVE PRECIP PATTERN AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS UNDER NW FLOW. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEVELOPS
IN NW-SE FASHION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL
BE AN ACTIVE MCS ZONE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG BEFORE TROUGHING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS IS ALONG THE NOSE OF A 25-30KT 850 MB JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT PIVOTS UP INTO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS IT DOES...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD
PCPN TO SHIFT OUT OF CENTRAL OHIO...WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR BR THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT VSBYS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST
MVFR IN SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SHORT WAVE
PUSHES EAST...EXPECT PCPN TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY AS WE HEAD INTO
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JDR/BINAU
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1155 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE GOTTEN RID OF ALL HEADLINES ANS THE LAST VESTIGE OF TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA HAS PASSED EASTWARD OF MY CWA. THE RUC AND OTHER
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE 0.25 TO 0.5 OVER THE SOUTH EAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVERDONE ALREADY...WILL TREND
POPS AND QPF LOWER. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
STILL MAINTAINING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ALONG THE LAURELS AND
ALLEGHENIES...AND THROUGH THE NW MTNS. THESE ARE QUASI STATIONARY
AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. AS THE OUTPUTS FOR THESE ARE AT A
0.10 OR LESS...ARE NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECT LOW 50S IN THE NW TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW LYING REGIONS AND VALLEYS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT IT SPREADING...THOUGH THE LOW STRATOCU WILL HAMPER
THIS DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS HIGHER...ALLOWING IT TO BE A BIT
MUGGY...AS THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEG
WARMER THAN TODAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN
TRYING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
THE SREF AND GEFS DOWNPLAY THINGS SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT WE WILL START THE DAY
CLOUDY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AND JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY
TO THE EAST OF 90W AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF MON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COMBINE TO FINALLY NUDGE
THE DECAYING UPPER LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
THE WETTEST TIMEFRAME WOULD APPEAR TO COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADVECTED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE ERN GLAKS
MON AND TUE BEFORE SLOWLY PROPAGATING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER AIR APPROACHES IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROF FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY KEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A
CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY. COMPLICATING
THINGS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS TO MY SOUTH AND DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BROAD SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GLAKS TO WELL OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH COULD
TAP WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND BRING COOL/DRIZZLY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. PLAYED THINGS OPTIMISTICALLY AT THIS
POINT TRENDING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH...AND WE`LL SEE
HOW THE EASTERLY FLOW AND FETCH OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME LIFR NOTED IN THE
WEST...CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE
ONLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE/CEASE BETWEEN 06 TO 09Z. ALTHOUGH OVERALL DRIER AIR IS
MOVING IN...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CIGS IFR TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF
TO OUR EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ONCE
AGAIN REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY IFR/MVFR...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS IN THE PM.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANY REMNANTS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND QPF WILL BE 0.5 OR LOWER FOR
ANY ZONES THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ANY PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE
DROPPED ALL HEADLINES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CERU
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/CERU
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1058 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE GOTTEN RID OF ALL HEADLINES ANS THE LAST VESTIGE OF TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA HAS PASSED EASTWARD OF MY CWA. THE RUC AND OTHER
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE 0.25 TO 0.5 OVER THE SOUTH EAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVERDONE ALREADY...WILL TREND
POPS AND QPF LOWER. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
STILL MAINTAINING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ALONG THE LAURELS AND
ALLEGHENIES...AND THROUGH THE NW MTNS. THESE ARE QUASI STATIONARY
AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. AS THE OUTPUTS FOR THESE ARE AT A
0.10 OR LESS...ARE NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECT LOW 50S IN THE NW TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW LYING REGIONS AND VALLEYS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT IT SPREADING...THOUGH THE LOW STRATOCU WILL HAMPER
THIS DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS HIGHER...ALLOWING IT TO BE A BIT
MUGGY...AS THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEG
WARMER THAN TODAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN
TRYING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
THE SREF AND GEFS DOWNPLAY THINGS SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT WE WILL START THE DAY
CLOUDY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AND JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY
TO THE EAST OF 90W AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF MON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COMBINE TO FINALLY NUDGE
THE DECAYING UPPER LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
THE WETTEST TIMEFRAME WOULD APPEAR TO COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADVECTED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE ERN GLAKS
MON AND TUE BEFORE SLOWLY PROPAGATING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER AIR APPROACHES IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROF FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY KEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A
CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY. COMPLICATING
THINGS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS TO MY SOUTH AND DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BROAD SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GLAKS TO WELL OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH COULD
TAP WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND BRING COOL/DRIZZLY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. PLAYED THINGS OPTIMISTICALLY AT THIS
POINT TRENDING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH...AND WE`LL SEE
HOW THE EASTERLY FLOW AND FETCH OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME LIFR NOTED IN THE
WEST...CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF A KTHV TO KSEG
LINE.
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TS ANDREA SHOULD KEEP THIS SAME REGION
IN FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL THROUGH 06Z...THEN TAPERING QUICKLY
AFTER THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH OVERALL DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN...RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CIGS IFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF
TO OUR EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY IFR/MVFR...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS IN THE PM.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANY REMNANTS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND QPF WILL BE 0.5 OR LOWER FOR
ANY ZONES THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ANY PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE
DROPPED ALL HEADLINES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CERU
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROLE
EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MY SERN ZONES. LATEST RUC SHOWS
INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD AND
SHOULD BE EXITING MY CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A WEAK
MESOCYCLONE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON THAT COULD CLIP THE SERN
COUNTIES. AS SUCH WILL WAIT TO REMOVE ANY HEADLINES AND LET THEM
STAND...FOR NOW. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS
TRIGGERED OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ALONG THE LAURELS AND
ALLEGHENIES...AND THROUGH THE NW MTNS. THIS MATCHES WELL THE SHORT
TERM MODELS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z...BEFORE CEASING AS THE
FLOW WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE TOTAL QPF FROM THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT SO
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL BUT WILL
BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT LOW 50S IN THE NW TO UPPER
50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS HIGHER...ALLOWING IT TO BE A BIT
MUGGY...AS THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEG
WARMER THAN TODAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN
TRYING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
THE SREF AND GEFS DOWNPLAY THINGS SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT WE WILL START THE DAY
CLOUDY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AND JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY
TO THE EAST OF 90W AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF MON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COMBINE TO FINALLY NUDGE
THE DECAYING UPPER LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
THE WETTEST TIMEFRAME WOULD APPEAR TO COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADVECTED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE ERN GLAKS
MON AND TUE BEFORE SLOWLY PROPOGATING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER AIR APPROACHES IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROF FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY KEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A
CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY. COMPLICATING
THINGS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS TO MY SOUTH AND DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BROAD SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GLAKS TO WELL OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH COULD
TAP WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND BRING COOL/DRIZZLY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. PLAYED THINGS OPTIMISTICALLY AT THIS
POINT TRENDING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH...AND WE`LL SEE
HOW THE EASTERLY FLOW AND FETCH OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME LIFR NOTED IN THE
WEST...CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF A KTHV TO KSEG
LINE.
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TS ANDREA SHOULD KEEP THIS SAME REGION
IN FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL THROUGH 06Z...THEN TAPERING QUICKLY
AFTER THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH OVERALL DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN...RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CIGS IFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF
TO OUR EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY IFR/MVFR...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS IN THE PM.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR THREE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN STILL A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ON
SMALL STREAMS MAY OCCUR IF THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. MAINSTEM RIVERS NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BACK INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
KLZK WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX /MCV/ LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LATEST 15Z LAPS ANALYSIS
INDICATES 600-1100 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
LATEST TRENDS STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LATEST RUC SHORT TERM MODEL INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG...700-500 MB LAYER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 6.5 C/KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE THREAT FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN ATTAIN SEVERE LIMITS.
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO ADJUST
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND ADJUST
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT HAS JUST ABOUT CROSSED THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WON`T BE AS GREAT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
SO HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY BRINGING DRY
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH NO RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION REDUCING THE
CHANCE OF RAIN.
BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL START A WARMING TREND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY EXPECTED
TO CRACK THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2013. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ARS
$$
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH...NOW
APPROACHING TUP. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AT
MKL...MEM OF JBR. WILL CARRY VCTS AT TUP FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT
A LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN PORTIONS OF WEST TN AND NORTH MS TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT THINK
IT WILL EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS MEM. WILL CARRY 4SM AT MKL AND TUP
DURING TH EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A TEMPO OF 1SM AT TUP. CIGS
WILL LIKELY NE LOW-END MVFR TO IFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 83 66 82 63 / 30 20 10 10
MKL 82 63 81 56 / 30 30 10 10
JBR 82 62 80 59 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 84 66 84 60 / 50 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1123 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BACK INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
KLZK WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX /MCV/ LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LATEST 15Z LAPS ANALYSIS
INDICATES 600-1100 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
LATEST TRENDS STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LATEST RUC SHORT TERM MODEL INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG...700-500 MB LAYER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 6.5 C/KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE THREAT FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN ATTAIN SEVERE LIMITS.
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO ADJUST
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND ADJUST
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT HAS JUST ABOUT CROSSED THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WON`T BE AS GREAT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
SO HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY BRINGING DRY
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH NO RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION REDUCING THE
CHANCE OF RAIN.
BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL START A WARMING TREND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY EXPECTED
TO CRACK THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2013. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ARS
$$
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM KDYR-KPBF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY 06/15Z. A FEW TSRAS WILL POP UP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH MS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT KTUP AND KMKL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N/NW AT 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFT 07/01Z.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 83 66 82 63 / 30 20 10 10
MKL 82 63 81 56 / 30 30 10 10
JBR 82 62 80 59 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 85 66 84 60 / 40 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1153 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT CSV...AND ANTICIPATE
CONTINUED LOW CIGS WITH MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LINE FROM WESTERN KY
INTO WESTERN TN AND CURRENT MOVEMENT INDICATES -SHRA/-TSRA WILL
REACH CKV BY 08Z...BNA BY 10Z...AND CSV IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE
BY 15Z. AIRPORTS CAN EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR A FEW HOURS AS LINE
MOVES ACROSS. PRECIP TO END AT TERMINALS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON MAINLY
AT CSV. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHWEST BY
MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWEST AT CKV/BNA BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...
SCALED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 06Z AS STORMS OVER AR/WRN
TN WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET HERE. AFTER THAT...SEVERAL WRF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER MO CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THESE
DOWNSTREAM STORMS AND PUSHING THEM INTO MIDDLE TN MAINLY AFTER
06Z. BASED ON THAT...KEPT LOW LIKELY POPS FROM I-65 WEST AFTER
06Z AND LOW CHC POPS OVER THE EAST. LATEST SOUNDING OUT OF BNA
SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND VERY WEAK SHEAR...SO ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND MOVE VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT BECAUSE OF THIS.
UPDATE SENT TO THE WEB ALREADY. ZONE UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CWA CURRENTLY CONVECTION FREE...BUT NEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS WEST TN/EAST AR OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING
DUE TO CURRENT SLOW MOVEMENT AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GUIDANCE
MAKE FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE
INHERITED MENTION OF -TSRA/-SHRA AT ALL AIRPORTS NEAR/AFTER 06Z
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE...WITH PRECIP ENDING BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND CIGS/VIS IMPROVING TO VFR AT CKV/BNA. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AS WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
55
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE EARLIER STORMS AFFECTING MIDDLE
TENNESSEE HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR MOVED OUT OF THE MID STATE
ALTOGETHER, LEAVING US WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND A HUMID
ATMOSPHERE. RADAR SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, BUT THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY
WON`T MAKE IT THIS FAR, WITH THE BULK OF TONIGHT`S PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHES IN
FROM THE NW JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. POP`S WILL
DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY AFTER TOMORROW AS ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOES
PARTIAL DRYING. HOWEVER, NAM DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW NEAR LMK
ASSIMILATING INTO A DEEPER GULF LOW AND FINALLY PULLING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY, SO CAN`T
COMPLETELY WIPE OUT POP`S FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER A DRY, COOLER WEEKEND, LOOK FOR A RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POP`S BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS WE SEE THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A STEEP NW FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
632 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NM WILL
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT OVERSPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER. IF
IT DOES INDEED REMAIN INTACT...THE TIMING WILL BE AROUND 12...
FAVORING THE KABI OR KSJT TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 12-15 KTS /WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES/
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
SHORT TERM...
..THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INTO A
COMPLEX LATER TONIGHT...ENTERING WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND THE NORTH EDWARDS PLATEAU AROUND 4 AM. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE NAM DISSIPATES ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF
THE AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AND GFS AS CONVECTION SHOULD
SUSTAIN ITSELF GIVEN THE SHORT WAVE AND A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
JET THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING. WENT WITH
20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTH
EDWARDS PLATEAU. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS
KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...WEAKENING OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BIG COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS TEXAS NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A HOT AND DRY FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 63 89 72 93 74 / 20 20 10 5 5
SAN ANGELO 62 92 72 96 74 / 30 20 5 5 5
JUNCTION 62 91 70 93 73 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
157 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANDREA WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN HEAD EAST
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...
INTRODUCED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN LAST NIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GROUND TRUTH AMOUNTS ARE PROVING TO
BE GREATER THAN RADAR ESTIMATES WITH FOUR INCH AMOUNTS NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAME REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING TO ADDRESS BOTH
PRECIPITAITON ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND
POTENTIAL UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE FROM ANDREA AS IT
PASSES NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO BETTER
ADDRESS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 957 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY NEAR A LINE FROM
RADFORD VA TO MONETA VA. THIS TRAILING END OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 BY NOON. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH NOON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE GAPS IN
IT...AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE REGION WHICH IS OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE.
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS MORNING WITH DEEP SE FLOW
IN PLACE BETWEEN A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD/WARM FRONT COMBO TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING AREAS OF BETTER FOCUS WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE SE FLOW CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO
INIT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAD ENVIRONMENT. LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATTM...WITH THIS AREA SPREADING SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING...PUSHING BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE SRN FOOTHILLS OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS BUT GIVEN HIGH FFG/ONLY HIGHER RATES IN SPOTS
WILL HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME SORT OF PRE EVENT
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANDREA. OTHER AXIS OF
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WEST BEHIND THIS
EARLY BATCH AS WEAK ENERGY PUSHES EAST AND TAPS INTO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING WEAK SE
UPSLOPE TO PERSIST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD REGENERATE SHRA SW SO
OVERALL LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION PER EMBEDDED TSRA
DESPITE OVERALL LACK OF CAPE WITHIN THE ENHANCED COOL POOL TODAY.
MOS TEMPS HAVE ALSO TRENDED MUCH LOWER PROVIDED LITTLE INSOLATION
AND MORE PRECIP WHICH SHOULD AID THE EAST/SE FLOW SO TWEAKED
HIGHS DOWN A BIT MORE WITH SOME NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S.
5H TROF TO THE NW STARTS TO DIG SE OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF
ANDREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TOWARD SE NC BY MORNING. IFFY AS
TO JUST WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AXIS OF TROPICAL PWATS IN THE SE.
PENDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANDREA...COULD SEE THE WEST/SW
CTYS GET INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA LATE WITH ONLY SCTD SHRA.
THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE BUT OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY/CAT POPS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHERE BANDS
SET UP ESPCLY LATE. EXPECT A MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUX OF MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ESPCLY EAST WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY FALL BACK A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE DAY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A BLEND OF TRACKS FROM THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC MATCH
CLOSEST TO THE 03Z/06 ADVISORY FROM NHC. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING WILLIS WHARF AROUND 00Z ON THE 8TH AND
THEN UP NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANDREA WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE...HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CLOSE TO COOLER
MET/ECMWF VALUES. WENT WITH THE MILDER MOS LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT LEANING TOWARDS
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY TO BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S
IN THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FOLLOWING WPC AND THE 00Z/ECMWF. UPPER TROF COMING ACROSS
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL BE STALLED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE
FRONT GET PUSHED NORTH BRIEFLY PUTTING FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT DOESNT
GET TOO FAR SOUTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO BEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
COOLER AIR WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS COMMON NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL DAY. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREA...MVFR
CIGS AND VFR VSBYS ARE COMMON. WE EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...AREAS
CURRENTLY THAT AREA MVFR WILL TREND TO IFR WITH LIGHT FOG AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND ANDREA HEADING
NORTH ALONG THE COAST...WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MOISTURE SUPPLY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM HEAD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ013-014-016>020-
022>024-032>035-043.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ003-004-019-020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
105 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANDREA WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN HEAD EAST
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...
INTRODUCED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN LAST NIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GROUND TRUTH AMOUNTS ARE PROVING TO
BE GREATER THAN RADAR ESTIMATES WITH FOUR INCH AMOUNTS NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAME REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING TO ADDRESS BOTH
PRECIPITAITON ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND
POTENTIAL UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE FROM ANDREA AS IT
PASSES NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO BETTER
ADDRESS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 957 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY NEAR A LINE FROM
RADFORD VA TO MONETA VA. THIS TRAILING END OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 BY NOON. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH NOON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE GAPS IN
IT...AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE REGION WHICH IS OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE.
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS MORNING WITH DEEP SE FLOW
IN PLACE BETWEEN A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD/WARM FRONT COMBO TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING AREAS OF BETTER FOCUS WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE SE FLOW CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO
INIT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAD ENVIRONMENT. LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATTM...WITH THIS AREA SPREADING SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING...PUSHING BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE SRN FOOTHILLS OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS BUT GIVEN HIGH FFG/ONLY HIGHER RATES IN SPOTS
WILL HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME SORT OF PRE EVENT
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANDREA. OTHER AXIS OF
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WEST BEHIND THIS
EARLY BATCH AS WEAK ENERGY PUSHES EAST AND TAPS INTO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING WEAK SE
UPSLOPE TO PERSIST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD REGENERATE SHRA SW SO
OVERALL LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION PER EMBEDDED TSRA
DESPITE OVERALL LACK OF CAPE WITHIN THE ENHANCED COOL POOL TODAY.
MOS TEMPS HAVE ALSO TRENDED MUCH LOWER PROVIDED LITTLE INSOLATION
AND MORE PRECIP WHICH SHOULD AID THE EAST/SE FLOW SO TWEAKED
HIGHS DOWN A BIT MORE WITH SOME NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S.
5H TROF TO THE NW STARTS TO DIG SE OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF
ANDREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TOWARD SE NC BY MORNING. IFFY AS
TO JUST WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AXIS OF TROPICAL PWATS IN THE SE.
PENDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANDREA...COULD SEE THE WEST/SW
CTYS GET INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA LATE WITH ONLY SCTD SHRA.
THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE BUT OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY/CAT POPS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHERE BANDS
SET UP ESPCLY LATE. EXPECT A MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUX OF MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ESPCLY EAST WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY FALL BACK A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE DAY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A BLEND OF TRACKS FROM THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC MATCH
CLOSEST TO THE 03Z/06 ADVISORY FROM NHC. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING WILLIS WHARF AROUND 00Z ON THE 8TH AND
THEN UP NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANDREA WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE...HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CLOSE TO COOLER
MET/ECMWF VALUES. WENT WITH THE MILDER MOS LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT LEANING TOWARDS
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY TO BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S
IN THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FOLLOWING WPC AND THE 00Z/ECMWF. UPPER TROF COMING ACROSS
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL BE STALLED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE
FRONT GET PUSHED NORTH BRIEFLY PUTTING FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT DOESNT
GET TOO FAR SOUTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO BEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
COOLER AIR WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EDT THURSDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
AS SHOWERS PERSIST OVER MOST TAF LOCATIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ESPCLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL OCCUR UNDER LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO LIFR AS WELL AROUND KROA THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPCLY THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT. GIVEN STABLE
CONDITIONS...WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER EXCEPT FOR A VCTS MENTION IN
SPOTS MAINLY AROUND KBLF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING BUT RETURN OVER THE SE LATE AS TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA HEADS RAPIDLY NE ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY BE TOO FAR
EAST TO BRING HEAVIER RAIN BACK INTO KDAN/KLYH BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SHOWER MENTION OVERNIGHT. ELSW...LOW CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW
LOW CIGS WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE PROJECTING IFR TO LIFR ONCE THE
SHOWERS TAPER SO BASICALLY FOLLOWED AND INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LOW
CONDITIONS WITH SOME ADDED FOG AROUND AS WELL.
ANDREA TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY ALLOWING
GRADUAL DRYING ALOFT TO WORK IN FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT STILL ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WILL BE
HARD TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EXPECTING A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN CIGS WITH
POTENTIAL VFR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SITES BY LATE IN THE DAY
DESPITE SOME LINGERING SHRA AROUND.
THINGS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAYBE EARLY
MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT
EVEN THOUGH WILL SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP CIGS AT LEAST VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ013-014-016>020-
022>024-032>035-043.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ003-004-019-020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1008 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANDREA WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN HEAD EAST
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY NEAR A LINE FROM
RADFORD VA TO MONETA VA. THIS TRAILING END OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 BY NOON. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH NOON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE GAPS IN
IT...AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE REGION WHICH IS OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE.
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS MORNING WITH DEEP SE FLOW
IN PLACE BETWEEN A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD/WARM FRONT COMBO TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING AREAS OF BETTER FOCUS WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE SE FLOW CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO
INIT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAD ENVIRONMENT. LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATTM...WITH THIS AREA SPREADING SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING...PUSHING BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE SRN FOOTHILLS OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS BUT GIVEN HIGH FFG/ONLY HIGHER RATES IN SPOTS
WILL HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME SORT OF PRE EVENT
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANDREA. OTHER AXIS OF
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WEST BEHIND THIS
EARLY BATCH AS WEAK ENERGY PUSHES EAST AND TAPS INTO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING WEAK SE
UPSLOPE TO PERSIST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD REGENERATE SHRA SW SO
OVERALL LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION PER EMBEDDED TSRA
DESPITE OVERALL LACK OF CAPE WITHIN THE ENHANCED COOL POOL TODAY.
MOS TEMPS HAVE ALSO TRENDED MUCH LOWER PROVIDED LITTLE INSOLATION
AND MORE PRECIP WHICH SHOULD AID THE EAST/SE FLOW SO TWEAKED
HIGHS DOWN A BIT MORE WITH SOME NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S.
5H TROF TO THE NW STARTS TO DIG SE OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF
ANDREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TOWARD SE NC BY MORNING. IFFY AS
TO JUST WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AXIS OF TROPICAL PWATS IN THE SE.
PENDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANDREA...COULD SEE THE WEST/SW
CTYS GET INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA LATE WITH ONLY SCTD SHRA.
THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE BUT OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY/CAT POPS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHERE BANDS
SET UP ESPCLY LATE. EXPECT A MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUX OF MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ESPCLY EAST WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY FALL BACK A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE DAY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A BLEND OF TRACKS FROM THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC MATCH
CLOSEST TO THE 03Z/06 ADVISORY FROM NHC. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING WILLIS WHARF AROUND 00Z ON THE 8TH AND
THEN UP NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANDREA WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE...HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CLOSE TO COOLER
MET/ECMWF VALUES. WENT WITH THE MILDER MOS LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT LEANING TOWARDS
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY TO BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S
IN THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FOLLOWING WPC AND THE 00Z/ECMWF. UPPER TROF COMING ACROSS
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL BE STALLED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE
FRONT GET PUSHED NORTH BRIEFLY PUTTING FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT DOESNT
GET TOO FAR SOUTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO BEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
COOLER AIR WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EDT THURSDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
AS SHOWERS PERSIST OVER MOST TAF LOCATIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ESPCLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL OCCUR UNDER LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO LIFR AS WELL AROUND KROA THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPCLY THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT. GIVEN STABLE
CONDITIONS...WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER EXCEPT FOR A VCTS MENTION IN
SPOTS MAINLY AROUND KBLF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING BUT RETURN OVER THE SE LATE AS TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA HEADS RAPIDLY NE ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY BE TOO FAR
EAST TO BRING HEAVIER RAIN BACK INTO KDAN/KLYH BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SHOWER MENTION OVERNIGHT. ELSW...LOW CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW
LOW CIGS WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE PROJECTING IFR TO LIFR ONCE THE
SHOWERS TAPER SO BASICALLY FOLLOWED AND INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LOW
CONDITIONS WITH SOME ADDED FOG AROUND AS WELL.
ANDREA TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY ALLOWING
GRADUAL DRYING ALOFT TO WORK IN FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT STILL ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WILL BE
HARD TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EXPECTING A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN CIGS WITH
POTENTIAL VFR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SITES BY LATE IN THE DAY
DESPITE SOME LINGERING SHRA AROUND.
THINGS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAYBE EARLY
MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT
EVEN THOUGH WILL SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP CIGS AT LEAST VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
716 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANDREA WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN HEAD EAST
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS MORNING WITH DEEP SE FLOW
IN PLACE BETWEEN A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD/WARM FRONT COMBO TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING AREAS OF BETTER FOCUS WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE SE FLOW CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO
INIT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAD ENVIRONMENT. LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATTM...WITH THIS AREA SPREADING SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING...PUSHING BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE SRN FOOTHILLS OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS BUT GIVEN HIGH FFG/ONLY HIGHER RATES IN SPOTS
WILL HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME SORT OF PRE EVENT
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANDREA. OTHER AXIS OF
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WEST BEHIND THIS
EARLY BATCH AS WEAK ENERGY PUSHES EAST AND TAPS INTO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING WEAK SE
UPSLOPE TO PERSIST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD REGENERATE SHRA SW SO
OVERALL LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION PER EMBEDDED TSRA
DESPITE OVERALL LACK OF CAPE WITHIN THE ENHANCED COOL POOL TODAY.
MOS TEMPS HAVE ALSO TRENDED MUCH LOWER PROVIDED LITTLE INSOLATION
AND MORE PRECIP WHICH SHOULD AID THE EAST/SE FLOW SO TWEAKED
HIGHS DOWN A BIT MORE WITH SOME NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S.
5H TROF TO THE NW STARTS TO DIG SE OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF
ANDREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TOWARD SE NC BY MORNING. IFFY AS
TO JUST WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AXIS OF TROPICAL PWATS IN THE SE.
PENDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANDREA...COULD SEE THE WEST/SW
CTYS GET INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA LATE WITH ONLY SCTD SHRA.
THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE BUT OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY/CAT POPS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHERE BANDS
SET UP ESPCLY LATE. EXPECT A MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUX OF MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ESPCLY EAST WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY FALL BACK A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE DAY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A BLEND OF TRACKS FROM THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC MATCH
CLOSEST TO THE 03Z/06 ADVISORY FROM NHC. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING WILLIS WHARF AROUND 00Z ON THE 8TH AND
THEN UP NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANDREA WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE...HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CLOSE TO COOLER
MET/ECMWF VALUES. WENT WITH THE MILDER MOS LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT LEANING TOWARDS
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY TO BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S
IN THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FOLLOWING WPC AND THE 00Z/ECMWF. UPPER TROF COMING ACROSS
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL BE STALLED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE
FRONT GET PUSHED NORTH BRIEFLY PUTTING FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT DOESNT
GET TOO FAR SOUTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO BEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
COOLER AIR WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EDT THURSDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
AS SHOWERS PERSIST OVER MOST TAF LOCATIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ESPCLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL OCCUR UNDER LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO LIFR AS WELL AROUND KROA THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPCLY THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT. GIVEN STABLE
CONDITIONS...WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER EXCEPT FOR A VCTS MENTION IN
SPOTS MAINLY AROUND KBLF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING BUT RETURN OVER THE SE LATE AS TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA HEADS RAPIDLY NE ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY BE TOO FAR
EAST TO BRING HEAVIER RAIN BACK INTO KDAN/KLYH BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SHOWER MENTION OVERNIGHT. ELSW...LOW CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW
LOW CIGS WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE PROJECTING IFR TO LIFR ONCE THE
SHOWERS TAPER SO BASICALLY FOLLOWED AND INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LOW
CONDITIONS WITH SOME ADDED FOG AROUND AS WELL.
ANDREA TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY ALLOWING
GRADUAL DRYING ALOFT TO WORK IN FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT STILL ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WILL BE
HARD TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EXPECTING A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN CIGS WITH
POTENTIAL VFR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SITES BY LATE IN THE DAY
DESPITE SOME LINGERING SHRA AROUND.
THINGS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAYBE EARLY
MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT
EVEN THOUGH WILL SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP CIGS AT LEAST VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
333 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANDREA WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN HEAD EAST
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS MORNING WITH DEEP SE FLOW
IN PLACE BETWEEN A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD/WARM FRONT COMBO TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING AREAS OF BETTER FOCUS WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE SE FLOW CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO
INIT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAD ENVIRONMENT. LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATTM...WITH THIS AREA SPREADING SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING...PUSHING BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE SRN FOOTHILLS OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS BUT GIVEN HIGH FFG/ONLY HIGHER RATES IN SPOTS
WILL HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME SORT OF PRE EVENT
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANDREA. OTHER AXIS OF
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WEST BEHIND THIS
EARLY BATCH AS WEAK ENERGY PUSHES EAST AND TAPS INTO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING WEAK SE
UPSLOPE TO PERSIST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD REGENERATE SHRA SW SO
OVERALL LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION PER EMBEDDED TSRA
DESPITE OVERALL LACK OF CAPE WITHIN THE ENHANCED COOL POOL TODAY.
MOS TEMPS HAVE ALSO TRENDED MUCH LOWER PROVIDED LITTLE INSOLATION
AND MORE PRECIP WHICH SHOULD AID THE EAST/SE FLOW SO TWEAKED
HIGHS DOWN A BIT MORE WITH SOME NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S.
5H TROF TO THE NW STARTS TO DIG SE OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF
ANDREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TOWARD SE NC BY MORNING. IFFY AS
TO JUST WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AXIS OF TROPICAL PWATS IN THE SE.
PENDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANDREA...COULD SEE THE WEST/SW
CTYS GET INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA LATE WITH ONLY SCTD SHRA.
THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE BUT OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY/CAT POPS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHERE BANDS
SET UP ESPCLY LATE. EXPECT A MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUX OF MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ESPCLY EAST WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY FALL BACK A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE DAY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A BLEND OF TRACKS FROM THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC MATCH
CLOSEST TO THE 03Z/06 ADVISORY FROM NHC. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING WILLIS WHARF AROUND 00Z ON THE 8TH AND
THEN UP NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANDREA WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE...HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CLOSE TO COOLER
MET/ECMWF VALUES. WENT WITH THE MILDER MOS LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT LEANING TOWARDS
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY TO BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S
IN THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FOLLOWING WPC AND THE 00Z/ECMWF. UPPER TROF COMING ACROSS
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL BE STALLED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE
FRONT GET PUSHED NORTH BRIEFLY PUTTING FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT DOESNT
GET TOO FAR SOUTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO BEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
COOLER AIR WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWERS HEAD NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR OR
WORSE ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT SOME OF THIS LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHRA TO AFFECT BOTH KROA/KBCB OVERNIGHT WITH LOW END MVFR
TO IFR DEVELOPING BEFORE DAWN. SHRA MAY ALSO CLIP KDAN AND KBLF
BUT THINK CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR A BIT LONGER BEFORE
FALLING INTO MVFR. WONT INCLUDE ANY TSRA MENTION OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE AS LIFT SPREADS
NORTH BY MORNING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY A BETTER THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES
AT MOST LOCATIONS AND SHOULD SEE WINDS STAYING SE ACROSS THE BLUE
RIDGE WHILE THE WINDS TURN MORE SW IN BLF. THIS CONVERGENT SETUP
FAVORS ALL AREAS WITH SHOWERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. FOR NOW WILL BE PERSISTENT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LEAVE OUT THUNDER EXCEPT FOR A VCTS MENTION IN SPOTS AND GO WITH
AN MVFR FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AGAIN SHOULD SEE SMALLER WINDOWS OF
IFR OR WORSE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
COAST AND GET CAUGHT UP WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING BY FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY OUR EASTERN AREA GETTING AFFECT SO EXPECT POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AT LEAST AT DAN/LYH AND PERHAPS AS
FAR WEST AS BCB/ROA. IN THE WEST THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THINGS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAYBE EARLY MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT
EVEN THOUGH WILL SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP CIGS AT LEAST VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS EVEN A WEAK LOW SHOWING UP AT
700 MB. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THUS...WENT WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
NAM AND RAP HAVE MUCH STRONGER SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS AROUND 06.18Z. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH CAPE BUILD UP TO AID IN THE STRETCHING OF THIS
VORTICITY AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THIS AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF IT
CAN REMAIN ROOTED ON THIS BOUNDARY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ON FRIDAY...THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...A COLD POCKET OF AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DUE
TO THIS THE 900 TO 800 MB LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 8 AND
8.5 C/KM. DUE TO THIS EXPECT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE EVEN HINTS
THAT THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED INTO THE EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SPEED UP A SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE THE REGION. MODERATE TO
STRONG 300 TO 320K ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS RESULTED IN THE CLOUD COVER MOVING
INTO THE REGION FASTER. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
RAPID INCREASE IN THE FRONTOGENESIS FROM 950 TO 500 MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...AND 700 TO 500 MB ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW
THIS FRONT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WITH THE RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT MANY OF THE
LOWS HAVE BEEN CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE REGION THIS SPRING...PREFER THE
CLOSED LOW SCENARIO THAT THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF GENERATE ACROSS
THE REGION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
INTO THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE...SO COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR AHEAD OF
THIS LOW CLIMBS UP TO 50 KNOTS...THE ML CAPES ONLY CLIMB UP TO
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING RIDGING
TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE AS FAST
OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IF THIS DOES INDEED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
ALREADY NOTICED THAT THE ECMWF WAS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE ALL BLEND...SO TRENDED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COLDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT THE RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...A WARM FRONT GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 45 KNOT 850 MB JET WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE 0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 2500 TO
3500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 50 TO 70 KNOT RANGE...SO
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM. DUE TO
THIS...THERE IS CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE OPTED
NOT TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BETWEEN 825 MB AND 650 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ML CAPES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 50 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...
WITH A WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES TO ADDED TO THE THREATS FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING. LIKE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO ADD THIS
THREAT TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
PESKY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN DOWN INTO ILLINOIS. SOME DRYING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS HAS LIFTED IFR CEILINGS TO MVFR AT KRST WHICH
SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE AT
KLSE...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE TO LOW-END MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LIFT AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BOTH SITES. FOR THIS
EVENING...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG/STRATUS AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WIND PROFILES REMAIN
VERY LIGHT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. AT RST...CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO LIFR/IFR AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD FALL TO
IFR. AT KLSE...MAINLY IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY FUNNEL SOME
DRIER AIR TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIFT
CEILINGS TO MVFR AT KLSE SOMETIME IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
616 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS EVEN A WEAK LOW SHOWING UP AT
700 MB. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THUS...WENT WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
NAM AND RAP HAVE MUCH STRONGER SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS AROUND 06.18Z. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH CAPE BUILD UP TO AID IN THE STRETCHING OF THIS
VORTICITY AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THIS AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF IT
CAN REMAIN ROOTED ON THIS BOUNDARY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ON FRIDAY...THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...A COLD POCKET OF AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DUE
TO THIS THE 900 TO 800 MB LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 8 AND
8.5 C/KM. DUE TO THIS EXPECT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE EVEN HINTS
THAT THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED INTO THE EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SPEED UP A SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE THE REGION. MODERATE TO
STRONG 300 TO 320K ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS RESULTED IN THE CLOUD COVER MOVING
INTO THE REGION FASTER. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
RAPID INCREASE IN THE FRONTOGENESIS FROM 950 TO 500 MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...AND 700 TO 500 MB ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW
THIS FRONT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WITH THE RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT MANY OF THE
LOWS HAVE BEEN CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE REGION THIS SPRING...PREFER THE
CLOSED LOW SCENARIO THAT THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF GENERATE ACROSS
THE REGION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
INTO THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE...SO COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR AHEAD OF
THIS LOW CLIMBS UP TO 50 KNOTS...THE ML CAPES ONLY CLIMB UP TO
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING RIDGING
TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE AS FAST
OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IF THIS DOES INDEED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
ALREADY NOTICED THAT THE ECMWF WAS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE ALL BLEND...SO TRENDED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COLDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT THE RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...A WARM FRONT GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 45 KNOT 850 MB JET WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE 0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 2500 TO
3500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 50 TO 70 KNOT RANGE...SO
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM. DUE TO
THIS...THERE IS CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE OPTED
NOT TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BETWEEN 825 MB AND 650 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ML CAPES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 50 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...
WITH A WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES TO ADDED TO THE THREATS FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING. LIKE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO ADD THIS
THREAT TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE FOG THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING BOTH TAF SITES HAS SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH AS THE WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CEILINGS ARE PREDOMINANTLY STILL IFR BUT STARTING TO SHOW SOME
HOLES DEVELOPING IN THIS ALLOWING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANT AT BOTH SITES. THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION SO LOOK FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH TO COVER THIS. THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THE QUESTION BECOMES
WHAT THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL DO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN THE 06.06Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
MAKE IT INTO KLSE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LIGHT WIND
FLOW...CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN IS VERY LOW. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AS AREAS OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THAT WERE UNDER THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPERIENCED IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT SO WILL GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
358 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS EVEN A WEAK LOW SHOWING UP AT
700 MB. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THUS...WENT WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
NAM AND RAP HAVE MUCH STRONGER SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS AROUND 06.18Z. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH CAPE BUILD UP TO AID IN THE STRETCHING OF THIS
VORTICITY AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THIS AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF IT
CAN REMAIN ROOTED ON THIS BOUNDARY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ON FRIDAY...THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...A COLD POCKET OF AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DUE
TO THIS THE 900 TO 800 MB LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 8 AND
8.5 C/KM. DUE TO THIS EXPECT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE EVEN HINTS
THAT THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED INTO THE EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SPEED UP A SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE THE REGION. MODERATE TO
STRONG 300 TO 320K ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS RESULTED IN THE CLOUD COVER MOVING
INTO THE REGION FASTER. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
RAPID INCREASE IN THE FRONTOGENESIS FROM 950 TO 500 MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...AND 700 TO 500 MB ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW
THIS FRONT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WITH THE RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT MANY OF THE
LOWS HAVE BEEN CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE REGION THIS SPRING...PREFER THE
CLOSED LOW SCENARIO THAT THE GFS...GEM...AND ECWMF GENERATE ACROSS
THE REGION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
INTO THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE...SO COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR AHEAD OF
THIS LOW CLIMBS UP TO 50 KNOTS...THE ML CAPES ONLY CLIMB UP TO
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING RIDGING
TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE AS FAST
OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IF THIS DOES INDEED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
ALREADY NOTICED THAT THE ECMWF WAS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE ALL BLEND...SO TRENDED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COLDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT THE RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...A WARM FRONT GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 45 KNOT 850 MB JET WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE 0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 2500 TO
3500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 50 TO 70 KNOT RANGE...SO
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM. DUE TO
THIS...THERE IS CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE OPTED
NOT TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BETWEEN 825 MB AND 650 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ML CAPES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 50 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...
WITH A WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES TO ADDED TO THE THREATS FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING. LIKE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO ADD THIS
THREAT TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A STALLED TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL
PROVIDE THE CONDITIONS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE CONDITIONS COULD BE VARIABLE WITH SOME BOUNCING
AROUND IN THE CIG/VSBY OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF LIFT AND
COOLING. OVERALL...IFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNRISES AND BEGINS TO
WORK ON IMPROVING TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. A VERY SLOW IMPROVING
TREND SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH
LESS IFR HOURS EACH DAY UPCOMING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
630 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
STRONG SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND LARAMIE COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAIN HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS SO FAR. LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH
AROUND 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. WITH THESE TYPE OF VALUES...CONCERN
WILL STILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE
HAIL THREAT IS QUITE SMALL. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING EASTWARD OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
00-12Z...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT IN THAT REGION. THIS IS WHERE THE
STRONGEST ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE AS THE SYSTEM DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
SFC TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH
PRESSURE RISES AND A FROPA. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH NORTHWESTERLY 700MB
WINDS AROUND 30-35 KT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WHILE IT WILL BE
A BREEZY DAY...BELIEVE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST 850-700MB WINDS ARE OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PANHANDLE
FOR SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING LIGHT
QPF IN THE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE REAL WARM-UP
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. A RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS IT CROSSES THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE LARAMIE
RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE.
A CLOSED LOW ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OPENS UP WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH TUESDAY AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR
CONVECTION WILL SET UP FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX AS
THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS.
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WEST OF THE
GREAT BASIN...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEFLECT ANY
SHORTWAVES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST
ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS SHOW A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM RAWLINS TO CHADRON.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
RISING SUNDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 16C. HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD MONDAY...700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 19C...WHICH EQUATES TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH THE
MERCURY INTO THE 80S AND 90S. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
EQUALED OR EXCEEDED IN SOME AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRIM HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL REMAIN
WARM. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10 DEGREES...AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 622 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING BUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AS A RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED NEAR THIS WAVE.
WINDS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND THEN 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE
10-15 PERCENT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL ALSO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25-30 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FUELS ARE STILL GREEN AND DO NOT SUPPORT LARGE FIRE GROWTH...THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...LIEBL
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS EUREKA CA
1136 PM PDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WEST COAST. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS LATE ON SUNDAY. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BATTLE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE
SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...RANGING FROM THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST. MODEL FORECAST 850 MB
TEMPS WILL WARM ANOTHER 1-2C...PEAKING NEAR 27-28C ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS DIRECTLY OVER NRN CA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MID 100S AT LEAST...WHICH WILL BE ABOVE DAILY RECORDS
FOR EARLY JUNE ACROSS SEVERAL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST ON SUNDAY...
RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MODELS
HAVE BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT
HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...WHICH WOULD TEND TO PUSH THE
TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EXPECT THE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND
MAINLY RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. WHILE PWS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPROACH 1
INCH SUNDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 500
MB...OR AT LEAST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
THIS MEANS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE
ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL. GENERAL TROUGHING WILL DROP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND PERSIST NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RELATIVELY COOLER BUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.
MEANWHILE AT THE COAST...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT HAS INTENSIFIED TODAY...WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING,
RESULTING IN BETTER MIXING AND DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
TONIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR...BUT EXPECT SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
INTO THE EEL RIVER VALLEY AND HUMBOLDT BAY AND PERHAPS AROUND
FORT BRAGG...RESULTING IN CLOUDS THERE THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATIONS OF THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHING OFFSHORE...
EXCEPT PERHAPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY ON SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR AND STRATUS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT AT LEAST WEAKLY ONSHORE...SO KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST FROM GETTING TOO WARM. EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE
LOW TO MID-60S WE SAW TODAY. THERE STILL SHOULD BE SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MORNING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY. BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR WILL ARRIVE RESULTING
IN GREATER COVERAGE AND INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS AND FOG.
WITH THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND A DECENT SFC GRADIENT
EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO CLEAR MOST LOCATIONS OUT
EACH AFTERNOON. AAD
&&
.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUT ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST.
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AT KCEC AS GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AND DAYTIME
HEATING HAS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WINDS THERE ARE PRESENTLY
GUSTING OVER 25 KTS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KCEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
STRONG AND NAM INDICATES FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
NAM...GFS..AND RUC FOG TOOLS ALL INDICATE POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT BUT LIMITED VSBY REDUCTION. HOWEVER...MOS INDICATE IFR
VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE GROUND AT
KCEC WITH MVFR VSBYS AND BKN LOW CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AT KACV AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE COAST N OF CAPE MENDO AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KUKI OVERNIGHT. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS FROM AROUND THE AREA HINT THAT
PRESENT WIND FORECAST IS ON TRACK TO PERHAPS A BIT HIGH.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROF INLAND AND BUILDING HIGH OVER THE E PAC
WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
FOLLOWING SUIT. OFFSHORE GALE WARNING AND NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAIN ON TRACK. ALTHO PROBABLY NOT A SLAM DUNK...SHOULD
BE ENUF AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF HAZARDOUS SEAS IN ZONE 450 TO
WARRANT UPGRADING HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO A WARNING. HAVE NOT
MODIFIED START OR END TIMES OF THESE PRODUCTS. IT APPEARS WE ARE
NEAR THE HEIGHT OF THE AMPLITUDE AND PERIOD OF SSW BACKGROUND
SWELLS. WILL UPDATE THE EXISTING MWS FOR HAZARDOUS BREAKING WAVES
ALONG S FACING HARBORS AND COVES AND EXTEND THRU TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED LATE TONIGHT OR DURING THE
DAY SHIFT SAT. /SEC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT WX WITH LOW RHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS
UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE DISTRICT. DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE 100S AND
AFTERNOON RHS IN THE TEENS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10 MPH AWAY FROM THE COAST, AND WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER NRN CA WILL BRING A SCHC OF
TSTMS SUN AND COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR TO NW CA. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SUN...SO CONFIDENCE
INCREASING REGARDING CONVECTION SUN. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND
RELATIVELY DRY, HOWEVER WE CONTINUE TO THINK COVERAGE WILL BE TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT A FIRE WX WATCH/WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING.
AAD/BC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ450-455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PATTERN IS
STILL CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGHING
COVERING THE THE NATION EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OUR FORECAST
AREA RESIDES WITHIN A ZONE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOW AGAIN SURGING NORTHWARD WITHIN THIS FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS STILL SOUTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE OR RE-DEVELOP
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH.
REGIONAL RADARS HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN THE BEGINNING OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELDS
AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RRQ OF AN CONUS EAST COAST SPEED MAX. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AND
MUGGY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. QUICKLY RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR THESE TEMPERATURES
TO DROP MUCH MORE BEFORE SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TODAY...A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY TYPE DAY LOOKS PROBABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. NO WASHOUT EXPECTED...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP SHOULD
SUPPORT A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...ALREADY SEEING
SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITHIN THE
DEEP SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE
RRQ OF AN IMPRESSIVE EAST COAST SPEED MAX ARE SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASED SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ONLY INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE
PRODUCTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW CHANCE POPS
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING...THEN RAMPING UP TO LIKELY
CHANCES FOR MOST SPOTS BY LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...HOWEVER THE COLUMN IS VERY
WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS 17-18C...SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN TO PUSH
TEMPS TOWARD 90.
TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHWARD TAKING THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE PATTERN NORTHWARD AS WELL. THIS LOSS OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE
THE SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. BETTER SUPPORT IS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
NATURE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DEEP SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE OFF THE GULF. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND DROP POPS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN FAIL TO FALL
BELOW 70 AT MOST STATIONS.
SUNDAY/MONDAY...
SUMMER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTING FORECAST FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FL PENINSULA PROVIDING A LIGHT EAST/SE SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT WEST-COAST SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE
EVENTUAL OPPOSING FLOWS EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR OUR SIDE OF THE STATE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START OUT EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY A RAMP
UP IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PEAK
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PATTERN FAVORING A WEST COAST
CONVERGENCE MAX ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN FOR DEEP
CONVECTION SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD LIKELY (60-70%) THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH END CHANCE
(45-55%) THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINLY IN THE EXTENT OF COLUMN MOISTURE. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN THAN AN UPGRADE TO LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. SEASONABLE TEMPS
EXPECTED EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF COAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES
ACROSS NORTHERN FL TO THE GULF. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY THU WHERE
IT LINGERS THROUGH FRI...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH REACHING THE
EAST U.S. COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES DOWN FL...WITH
A RELAXING GRADIENT...INTO THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE KEYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR MID TO HIGH END POPS FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH
AND THE RIDGE DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA SOME DRYING FILTERS IN BUT
STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW END SCATTERED RANGE. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO WESTERLY...WHICH WOULD FAVOR
COASTAL ACTIVITY IN THE MORNINGS AND INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS POSITION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE FORMATION OF MORE DEFINED
SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NEAR THE
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR WITH VCNTY SHRA/TSRA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH SOME MVFR IN HEAVIER TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...BECOMING VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. ALTHOUGH NO DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. MORE TYPICAL
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSE
TO THE COAST.
FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT FOG COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 90 74 / 70 20 60 30
FMY 89 74 91 74 / 60 20 70 30
GIF 90 72 92 73 / 70 20 60 30
SRQ 86 73 89 73 / 70 20 60 30
BKV 88 72 90 71 / 60 20 60 30
SPG 86 77 90 76 / 70 20 60 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
333 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS FOR OUR EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOR
NOW...TO INCORPORATE HOURLY TRENDS. BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS...
ALONG WITH ISOLD SHOWERS...OR PATCHY SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY PROPER IF IT CAN TAP INTO FAVORABLE
DIURNAL HEATING. WILL BE LOOKING OVER LATEST RUNS IN MORE DETAIL TO
DETERMINE OF AN INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
UPDATED THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALED THAT THERE SIMPLY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD TRIGGER TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A FAIRLY
LARGE TEMPERATURE DEW POINT GAP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN
FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT THESE HAVE BE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY UPON ENTERING
EASTERN KENTUCKY OR NOT MAKE IT IN HERE AT ALL. THAT BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GREATLY REDUCED THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...ALSO DECIDED TO HAVE
EASTERN KENTUCKY BE PRECIPITATION FREE BY 22 OR 23Z ON SATURDAY.
LASTLY...REMOVED ANY REMAINING OUTDATED WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES...SKY...WINDS...WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST LATER ON IN
THE SHIFT TO REMOVE ANY OUTDATED WORDING AND TO REFRESH THE FORECAST
GRIDS. IF ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES OCCUR WITH THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER...TEMPERATURES...SKY...AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN
PARTICULAR...WILL ISSUE ONE FINAL UPDATE BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT
TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. AS IT STANDS...HAVE INGESTED THE LATEST ESTF DATA
TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT NOTHING MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TS ANDREA MOVING PAST THE REGION...WELL TO
THE EAST AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST. EARLIER...A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERED OVER KENTUCKY/S WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS... ALONG THE VIRGINA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THESE
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...DEW POINTS DOWN
NEAR 60...MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SKY ALSO STARTED TO BREAK UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA. THIS CLEARING LET TEMPERATURES SPIKE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. APPARENTLY...THIS IS STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO POP ANY CONVECTION DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST. THIS AREA
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IN THESE PARTS
BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SUPPORT FOR ANDREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A MINOR WAVE DOES LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA...PASSING
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME MODERATE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT KEYED IN ON THE NAM12
AND HRRR FOR NEAR TERM SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS CLEARING FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND THE WAKE SUBSIDENCE OF ANDREA DEPARTS.
THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A
SMALL THREAT LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT...
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS...
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN BOTH
THE HWO AND THE ZFP. A WEAK SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE TROPICAL STORM
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHAT EVER DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN.
LOADED THE CONSSHORT WINDS AND DEW POINTS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND CONSALL FOR TD/WINDS AND MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. DID
NOT ADD MUCH TERRAIN DIFFERENCE TO THE LOWS DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS STILL AROUND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRIER MAV THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPONSOR A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SCOOP UP SOME HIGH PWAT AIR AND SHOVE IT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTION SO WILL NOT
GO HOG WILD WITH RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...KEEPING THEM BELOW
CATEGORICAL RANGES. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF FORCING
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET
ALL HOLD THAT OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. THE GFS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD TEND TO BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES TO OUR NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ANY SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN AGAIN BE ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. A STOUT UPPER
RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
QUITE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO VSBYS AND LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. BUT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A
BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED ISOLD SHOWER...
PATCHY SPRINKLES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEEL THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE MORE
OPTIMISTIC THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE
MORE OF AN ISSUE FURTHER EAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY
AS SKIES HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON VSBY AT KJKL AS MID LEVEL CIGS MAY NOT OVERSPREAD THERE UNTIL
CLOSER TO DAWN. AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLD
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE
PROGRESSED TOO FAR NORTHEASTWARD TO HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO TAP INTO
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING TO GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. THUS
ONLY MENTIONED VCSH LATER IN THE DAY AT KJKL. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY PROPER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
227 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS FOR OUR EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOR
NOW...TO INCORPORATE HOURLY TRENDS. BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS...
ALONG WITH ISOLD SHOWERS...OR PATCHY SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY PROPER IF IT CAN TAP INTO FAVORABLE
DIURNAL HEATING. WILL BE LOOKING OVER LATEST RUNS IN MORE DETAIL TO
DETERMINE OF AN INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
UPDATED THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALED THAT THERE SIMPLY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD TRIGGER TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A FAIRLY
LARGE TEMPERATURE DEW POINT GAP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN
FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT THESE HAVE BE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY UPON ENTERING
EASTERN KENTUCKY OR NOT MAKE IT IN HERE AT ALL. THAT BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GREATLY REDUCED THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...ALSO DECIDED TO HAVE
EASTERN KENTUCKY BE PRECIPITATION FREE BY 22 OR 23Z ON SATURDAY.
LASTLY...REMOVED ANY REMAINING OUTDATED WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES...SKY...WINDS...WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING...WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST LATER ON IN
THE SHIFT TO REMOVE ANY OUTDATED WORDING AND TO REFRESH THE FORECAST
GRIDS. IF ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES OCCUR WITH THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER...TEMPERATURES...SKY...AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN
PARTICULAR...WILL ISSUE ONE FINAL UPDATE BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT
TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. AS IT STANDS...HAVE INGESTED THE LATEST ESTF DATA
TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT NOTHING MORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TS ANDREA MOVING PAST THE REGION...WELL TO
THE EAST AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST. EARLIER...A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERED OVER KENTUCKY/S WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS... ALONG THE VIRGINA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THESE
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...DEW POINTS DOWN
NEAR 60...MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SKY ALSO STARTED TO BREAK UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA. THIS CLEARING LET TEMPERATURES SPIKE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. APPARENTLY...THIS IS STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO POP ANY CONVECTION DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST. THIS AREA
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IN THESE PARTS
BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SUPPORT FOR ANDREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A MINOR WAVE DOES LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA...PASSING
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME MODERATE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT KEYED IN ON THE NAM12
AND HRRR FOR NEAR TERM SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS CLEARING FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND THE WAKE SUBSIDENCE OF ANDREA DEPARTS.
THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A
SMALL THREAT LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT...
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS...
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN BOTH
THE HWO AND THE ZFP. A WEAK SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE TROPICAL STORM
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHAT EVER DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN.
LOADED THE CONSSHORT WINDS AND DEW POINTS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND CONSALL FOR TD/WINDS AND MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. DID
NOT ADD MUCH TERRAIN DIFFERENCE TO THE LOWS DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS STILL AROUND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRIER MAV THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
DURING THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT A 500MB TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHOWING CONFINED AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MAKING ITS
WAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
KY...WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STARTING
OFF THE MORNING DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEAR
DURING THE DAY...AND MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES OFF THE EASTERN COAST
IN RELATION TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BOTH FROM THE EAST AND FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...THEY ARE NOT SO SETTLED ON HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE DURING THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE JACKSON AREA BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP BY SUNDAY
EVENING ACCORDING THE THE NAM AND SLIGHTLY LATER FOR THE GFS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE LEADING UP TO
THIS...THOUGH WITH ANY HEATING OR LIFT...WOULD NOT BE UNLIKELY TO
SEE A SOME ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
MAIN LINE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...PICKING
UP IN COVERAGE AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN FROM THE GULF AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A WASH OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
RESULT. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS MARGINALLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS/CONSENSUS. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO PULL OUT TUESDAY AND STRONG RIDGING PATTERN ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO
MOVE IN...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GEM
DRYING OUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN THE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL POTENTIAL RAIN MAKERS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ON EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION ARE LACKING. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW
BEST POTENTIALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
CORRELATION WITH THE BEST HEATING/INSTABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
QUITE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO VSBYS AND LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. BUT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A
BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED ISOLD SHOWER...
PATCHY SPRINKLES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEEL THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE MORE
OPTIMISTIC THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING. HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE
MORE OF AN ISSUE FURTHER EAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY
AS SKIES HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON VSBY AT KJKL AS MID LEVEL CIGS MAY NOT OVERSPREAD THERE UNTIL
CLOSER TO DAWN. AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLD
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE
PROGRESSED TOO FAR NORTHEASTWARD TO HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO TAP INTO
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING TO GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. THUS
ONLY MENTIONED VCSH LATER IN THE DAY AT KJKL. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY PROPER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE QUICK DEPARTURE OF THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA LATE LAST
NIGHT...WE DRIED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ON THE WAY. THE AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST EVEN W/ THE
BRIEF NWLY FLOW REGIME...THAT IS NOW QUICKLY EXITING AS WELL.
TYPICAL NW FLOW BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...BUT THIS NW FLOW WAS THE RESULT
OF BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING TROPICAL SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO
A SYNOPTIC-SCALE HIGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
A DEEPENING IN-SITU TROUGH COMING IN BEHIND ANDREA ALSO HAS A WEAK
EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE CAUGHT IN THE FLOW...NOW OVER THE CAROLINAS/SRN
VA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS WAY UP THE ERN SEABOARD THRU
THE PREDAWN HRS AND INTO THE LATE MRNG. MOST GUIDANCE MEMBERS APPEAR
TO NOT BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL...FROM INITIALIZATION ONWARD.
HRRR GUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE ONLY MEMBER TAKING THESE SEPARATE AREAS
OF PRECIP AND TAKING THEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS.
TWO SEPARATE PRECIP AREAS DEFINE THIS UPPER WAVE...W/ AN AREA OF
GOOD MTN CONVERGENCE CAUSING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN APLCNS
AND ANOTHER BATCH OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER AND MORE SCATTERED RAINFALL
OVER CNTRL/ERN NC...HEADING UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR HAS
CONSISTENTLY TAKEN THE SRN APLCNS PRECIP AND SPREAD IT UP THE
REMAINDER OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF OUR AREA BY
MID-LATE MRNG. THE OTHER NC PRECIP BATCH WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE VA
TIDEWATER AND UP TO LOWER SRN MD ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THOUGH THEY
MAY HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL DURING THIS JOURNEY...STILL ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PRECIP EXPECTED W/ THEM AND A GRADUAL CLEARING
BEHIND IT.
LITTLE CHANGE OF AIRMASS INTO THE AFTN HRS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE
FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER
TODAY...MAINLY THE RESULT OF TERRAIN INTERACTION - SO LOWER PRECIP
CHANCES E OF THE MTNS. HIGHS TOP OUT RIGHT AT THE CLIMO AVERAGES
ACROSS THE CWA. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AFTER THE MRNG
RAIN...W/ SOME MID CLOUD DECKS APPEARING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE M-U60S...W/
DEWPOINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE L60S...ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING ON SUNDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS
BACK IN THE 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES. THERE ARE SIGNS OF WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING TOO...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER MAIN FOCUS FOR CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON SUNDAY DURING THE BEST
INSTABILITY. GFS SUGGESTS 500-1000 J/KG CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NAM MORE LIKE 1000-1500 J/KG.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY IN A WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HEIGHT FALLS
BEGIN ON MONDAY...AND CWA STARTS TO EXPERIENCE SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
AS WELL. AS SUCH...EXPECT MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION ON MONDAY THAT
MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUE HIGH
END CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.
FLAT RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/FRONT TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG SHELTERED VLYS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
GROUND FOG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AIRPORTS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND IF AN AREA CAN GET CALM CONDITIONS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING TROPICAL SYSTEM HAVE SWITCHED TO
NWLY...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF ACROSS THE AREA TO A LIGHT WLY
AND EVENTUALLY SWLY WIND LATER THIS MRNG. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THRU NOON TODAY...THEN DRYING OUT AND
CLEARING OUT IN LARGE PART THRU THE REST OF THE DAY/NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN
UNDER S/SE WINDS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
LOW /IFR/ CIGS DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MEDIUM ON THIS ATTM. AS A FRONT APPROACHES MORE NUMEROUS
CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR ON MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS DYING DOWN QUICKLY ACROSS THE BAY. NOT LONG AGO...LOW END GALE
GUSTS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER/MIDDLE BAY BUT NOW ONLY A FEW
SCA GUSTS APPEARING. SCA WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY W/ THE QUICK
WIND DISSIPATION AS ANDREA SPEEDS OFF THRU NEW ENGLAND AND AWAY
FROM THE MID ATLC. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE LIGHT TODAY...W/ ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STIFF SLY CHANNELING UP THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE
BAY LATER THIS EVE...BUT SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
S/SE WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL PERHAPS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/BPP
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...GMS/BPP
MARINE...GMS/BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE
GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG ALONG THE W COAST. THERE IS ALSO A
RATHER WEAK UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO...WITH A 1015MB SFC HI CENTERED
OVER WRN LK SUP. A SHRTWV IS DRIFTING SEWD THRU NCENTRAL MN ON THE
SRN FLANK OF THIS RDG. THE INTERACTION BTWN THE DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AND BAND OF H85 FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF 60KT H3 JET
MAX SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV AND MID LVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
/KINX 29/ APPEARS TO BE GENERATING SOME ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE FAR WRN
CWA PER RADAR RETURNS IN THAT AREA. BUT DRYNESS OF LLVLS SHOWN ON
THE LOCAL 00Z RAOBS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY NOT BE
REACHING THE GROUND. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS...THE REST OF THE CWA
TO THE NE IS GENERALLY MOCLR WITH THE DRIER 00Z APX RAOB /KINX 16/
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE W...
A RATHER POTENT SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IN THE
NW FLOW ALF BTWN THE W COAST RDG AND GREAT LKS TROF.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV DRIFTING ESEWD THRU NRN MN.
TODAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W EARLY THIS
MRNG IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E ACRS NRN WI THIS MRNG AND THEN TO THE E
THRU NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO DNVA/HGT RISES OVER UPR MI
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THIS CHAIN OF EVENTS WOULD INDICATE THE -SHRA
NOW OVER THE W WL ALSO DRIFT TO THE E WITH THE SUPPORTING DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH DRYING OVER THE W TAKING HOLD IN ITS WAKE...BULK OF
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE ERN CWA WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE DAY
WITH MORE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT FORM IN THE WEAK LLVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FLAT HI PRES. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR IWD THIS
AFTN FOR T/TD OF 70/44 YIELDS SBCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG WITH KINX OF
27...SO WL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS
INDICATE THE LLVLS OVER THE E WL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN...SO
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. THS SDNGS ALSO SHOW SOME MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE W LATER IN THE AFTN WITH STRENGTHENING MID LVL INVRN
UNDER THE DNVA...SO ANY -SHRA THERE SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER.
MIXING TO H8-85 ON FCST SDNGS AND H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 9C SUPPORT HI
TEMPS REACHING 70 TO 75 AWAY FM LK MODERATION.
TONIGHT...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS TO
THE E OF STRONG SHRTWV NOW IN THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS FCST TO REACH
FAR SW MN BY 12Z SUN. WITH THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND WANING
DAYTIME HEATING...ANY ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
EARLY IN THE EVNG AND GIVE WAY TO MOCLR SKIES. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST
TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE SOME HI CLDS MAY ALSO ARRIVE LATE
TO THE NE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO
REMAIN ON THE SLOWER SIDE AS LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
STAY SOMEWHAT BLOCKY. TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE
LONG TERM BECOMES RE-INFORCED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SLIDES ACROSS CNTRL CONUS TO NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEN AS THIS LEADING TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. MAIN RESULT WOULD
BE TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
PRIMARY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
FOCUSING IN ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS
THERE MAY BE CUTOFF FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER EASTERN CWA.
ECMWF SHOWED THIS ON FRIDAY AND LATEST RUNS OF GFS/GEM-NH/UKMET PICK
UP ON THIS AS WELL. 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AS IT IS
FARTHER EAST AND CLOSED OFF WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY 00Z MONDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO EASTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. ECMWF/GFS
NOW REPRESENTS MIDDLE GROUND WITH EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP AS NAM IS
EASTERN OUTLIER WHILE GEM-NH AND UKMET WOULD BE WESTERN OUTLIERS AS
THEY SHOW LITTLE QPF EVEN INTO CNTRL CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. ECMWF/GFS
INDICATE SWATH OF H85-H7/H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WEST HALF
OF CWA BY 00Z MONDAY WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED MOSTLY INTO
WESTERN CWA ON SSE FLOW ARCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PATTERN
JUST DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH RAIN MAKING IT INTO EASTERN CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPLITS
OVER TIME WITH ONE PIECE OF TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OTHER/STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVING FROM CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. KEPT GENERAL THEME
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WAS MORE STUBBORN TO BRING HIGHER POPS
INTO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SHRA OVER
EAST ON SUNDAY NUDGED TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S THERE BUT KEPT READINGS
OVER FAR SW/WEST IN LOWER 60S DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LIKELY POPS OVER WEST AND CENTRAL STILL SEEM ON TRACK THOUGH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SI/S LESS THAN 0C
PEGGING TSRA OVER DAKOTAS CURRENTLY. SI/S MAINLY STAY ABOVE 0C INTO
UPR MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOLLOWING SREF 3HR PROBS FOR TSRA
DID KEEP SMALL MENTION IN FAR SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECT DECAYING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AS SPLITTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DAMPEN ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER CWA. SOME
INDICATION THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE OR AT LEAST THE TAIL OF WAVE ON
NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND WEAK SFC TROUGH CROSSING AREA MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING SHRA MONDAY AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF INTERIOR. HEADED THAT
WAY FOR POPS...LINGERING SMALL CHANCES OVR MAINLY CNTRL CWA MONDAY
EVENING. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH MID-UPR
60S WHICH IS A BIT BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHER THAN ISOLD
SHRA TUESDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVE AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
THROUGH IN A FLATTER FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER LATER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL ALLOW AREAS JUST
INLAND FROM LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE TO WARM INTO THE LOW EVEN
MID 70S ON TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +10C.
AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVR CNTRL
CONUS...BULGE OF WARM AIR WITH H85 TEMPS OVER +20C SPREADS ACROSS
PLAINS TOWARD MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. SFC WARM FRONT
STAYS TO SOUTH OF UPR LAKES AND H85 WARM FRONT FORECAST TO STAY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. BASED ON H85 JET AND
EDGE OF 1-6KM MUCAPE ALONG WITH H85-H3 THICKNESSES...SEEMS THAT
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. MIGHT
BE CLOSE CALL THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN DURING THE
DAY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH H85 WARM FRONT A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS
MODELS WERE SHOWING EARLIER. JUST IN CASE MODELS JOG BACK NORTH
AGAIN KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE SOUTH CWA. ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPS IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER BUT INLAND AREAS WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE 70S AS LONG AS WARM FRONT SHRA/TSRA DO NOT COME TOO
FAR NORTH.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ON THROUGH BY 12Z THURSDAY RESULTING IN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE SLIPS IN
LATE IN THE DAY BUT WILL REALLY BE LACKING MOISTURE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A POP-UP SHRA OVER INTERIOR...BUT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLD IF IT OCCURS
AT ALL. NORTHERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN
SIMILAR TEMP PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY WITH 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND SOLID
MID 70S INLAND. SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY LEADING TO
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CLOSE THE WEEK. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY STAYS OVR THE PLAINS SO JUST HAVE
CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BETTER
CHANCE OF WARMING INTO THE MID-UPR 70S EVEN OVER NORTH CWA NEAR LK
SUPERIOR. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME OF SEEING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS SINCE THE FEW SUMMER LIKE DAYS WE HAD TO CLOSE THE
MONTH OF MAY. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST NEAR KIWD. ALTHOUGH LAKE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER IN THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN E-SE WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20 KTS ON SUN INTO MON. AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS SHOULD FALL
BELOW 20 KTS LATER ON MON THRU WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LONG RANGE 0.5 REFLECTIVITY INDICATING FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SODAK. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING INTO EASTERN SODAK BY
SUN/00Z TIME FRAME. USED HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAINLY NON-TSTORM
RAIN SHIELD OVER WESTERN THIRD OF CWA FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING
HOURS. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER INITIATION
ACROSS THIS REGION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS40 AND EUROPEAN
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN MOVEMENT OF EVENTUAL STACKED 50H AND SURFACE
SYSTEM BY SUN/12Z. DIFFERENCE BEING A SLIGHT DIP SOUTH OVER NW IA
WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SFC ELEMENT VS GFS40`S SLIGHTLY DEEPER
SOLUTION OVER SW MN. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LARGE
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEST OF A
LINE FROM KAXN TO FAIRMONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. USED GFS40 ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS TO PROG TIMING AND POSITION
OF CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FORWARD PROGRESSION OF
CONVECTION OVER REMAINDER OF FA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
REDWOOD FALLS TO RED WING. THIS WAS BASED ON BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IF
THIS PANS OUT...COULD EASILY SEE A SOLID INCH OF MOISTURE OVER
THIS AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA WHICH COULD INCUR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN CURRENTLY PROGGED IS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. TRIMMED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT
FOR BOTH INCREASING THICKNESS OF CLOUD DECK...AND DEVELOPING
MOISTURE PATTERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WILL BE JUST ABOUT OCCLUDED
BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM NRN IL NWD TO CENTRAL WI
AND WWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS ARC WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT A COLD POCKET OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL FACILITATE
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE VORT MAX
OVERHEAD WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ALL DAY. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY LOCALLY. GIVEN THE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF GREATER
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET OFF ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS...AND MAY LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO THAT TRANSPIRED WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ALL
DAY RAINS. MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 10 KTS COULD ALSO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE LOW SINKING SOUTHEAST SHOULD END THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING. INVERTED
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING
IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S.
RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THICKNESSES OFF
THE GFS/EURO RISE TOWARD 580 DAM OVER SWRN MN...NORMALLY
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...925 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND +20C SO HIGHS SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE
LOWER 80S. THE RELATIVELY COOL 925 MB TEMPS AND WARM THICKNESSES
ALSO INDICATE STRONG CAPPING...THUS A DRY FORECAST.
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE BUILDING PLAINS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES...BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST RISK AREA WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE 00Z DISCUSSION.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING... BUT THEY WERE VFR ANYWAY SO THE
IMPACTS OF THE EARLIER SCATTERING OUT WERE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS... WITH CONDITIONS
STARTING TO DETERIORATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WORKS INTO THE REGION AND HELPS DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MINNESOTA AND IOWA. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT VARIED IN HOW THINGS WILL SHAPE UP
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE WIDESPREAD/STEADY PCPN
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE. PRIOR TO THAT... IT STILL
APPEARS A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH IT IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
WHERE/WHEN THAT WILL OCCUR SO CONTINUED TO STICK WITH VCSH OR MOST
OF THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. FOR THE LATER MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER
CEILINGS AND PCPN... HIT THINGS HARDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE AREA... WHERE MORE OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT...
AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
KMSP...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF PCPN ON SATURDAY AND THE EVENTUAL MVFR CEILINGS. AT
THIS POINT THINGS COULD EASILY VARY BY SEVERAL HOURS FROM WHAT IS
FORECAST... AND CEILINGS COULD ALSO WIND UP BEING 1+K FT
ABOVE/BELOW WHAT IS SUGGESTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE SATURDAY OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH SOME LLWS A
POSSIBILITY IF THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW... SO THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH SHRA/TSRA...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF
SHRA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KT.
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY. NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 5 KT
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THE FIRST WAS AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH TS ANDREA. AS OF 1AM...MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS
1001MB WITH 40KTS SUSTAINED WIND. THIS PALES IN COMPARISON TO THE
MID LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT WAS ROARING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 976MB AND A MUCH
BROADER 40KT WIND FIELD. THE UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PACIFIC CYCLONE WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE THIRD FEATURE OF INTEREST WAS THE FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDED UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT EVIDENT BY THE EXPANSIVE
CLOUD FIELD THAT BLANKETED THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL AS PLAIN VIEW MAPS VIA FROM BOTH THE
RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 0-1KM RH VALUES OF 90-95 PERCENT LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DRYING OUT ACROSS
FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING IS SUPPORTED
BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS VIA THE RAP AND NAM12 SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION EXTENDING UP TO 700MB BY AFTERNOON...INDICATING SOME
DEEPER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. A FEW OF THESE CU
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO HAVE TRENDED THE
HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT THIS DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL FALL
APART QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE BROKEN STRATUS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO AS OF NOW DID CHOSE NOT TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD REFUSES TO VACATE THE AREA WITH ANY EXPEDIENCY AND MAY
FACILITATE ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MN AND WRN
WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND SOME SUN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE...ALBEIT UNDER A BROKEN CLOUD
SHIELD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPILL OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN
MN INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED TO A LOT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NAM EXHIBITING ITS NORTHERN BIAS WHILE
THE GFS/GEM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE ECMWF CAME INTO RELATIVELY
DECENT AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH THE 00Z RUNS. BIG DIFFERENCE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS THE LATTER SOLUTION DEVELOPS A STOUT
SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SERN SD OR SWRN MN SATURDAY
EVENING. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESE FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR
SRN MN OR NRN IA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
GFS AND GEM QPF FIELDS SHOW PRECIP BREAKING OUT JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AND CONFINED
FURTHER WEST DUE TO WEAKER/FURTHER WEST 850 MB JET. MAINTAINED
HIGH POPS ACROSS WRN MN...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF INTO WRN WI GIVEN
THAT THIS IS JUST A RECENT TREND. THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER FAR SRN MN WILL OCCLUDE AND SLOWLY TRACK ESE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS FAR SRN MN. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WARM FRONT THAT
CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH LONG...LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND LOW
LCL/S. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE. IF THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST CAPE...COULD SEE A TORNADO
THREAT DEVELOP.
THIS SYSTEM REMINDS ME OF A WINTER STORM THIS PAST YEAR...COMPLETE
WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. IT AGAIN BEGS THE QUESTION...WHAT MONTH IS
THIS?
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS COULD FOLLOW SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW
SLOWLY IT TAKES THE LOW TO PULL OUT. IF IT IS CLOUDY AND
RAINY...WE CAN PROBABLY HACK 10 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS ARE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID/LATE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WX TO
MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
IFR OR LOWER CIGS ARE IN PLACE AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME ACROSS SRN MN
AND WRN WI. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING
MVFR LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION.
KMSP...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z...THEN TO MVFR
AROUND 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH ON CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY VERY WELL MAY REMAIN BELOW 017. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS LGT/VAR.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 15G25KT.
SUN...MVFR LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRB
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1044 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. An upper trof continues to push across eastern
Montana this evening. The airmass remains the most unstable across
the east with decent CAPE values and available moisture. The result
has been scattered thunderstorms moving along the Hi-Line and across
portions of North Central and eastern Montana. Latest RUC analysis
indicates convective activity should end by 08z. Temperatures look
reasonable. Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 0444Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds will
increase overnight across the eastern part of the area. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a line east of KHVR
and KLWT. Most shower activity should remain to to the east of these
sites so will not use VCTS or -TSRA however some development could
create brief TS near KHVR and KLWT. Drying conditions should develop
by 12Z. Suk
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2013
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather during the period will
be associated with a weather disturbance aloft which will move
southeast across Montana tonight. The better lift and moisture
will be over the plains and associated mountains while southwest
Montana will see little if any lift and little moisture. Will thus
continue with the idea of the highest chances of precipitation
near the Canadian border and the lowest over far southwest
Montana. As far as the threat of stronger thunderstorms for this
evening goes will restrict the threat to northcentral Montana where
there will be the best combination of lift and instability. At this
time think any hail that develops will be less than a half-inch
and any wind gusts less than 50 mph. For Saturday and Sunday
expect a dry period as an upper ridge moves into the Pacific
Northwest Saturday and through the forecast area on Sunday. The
only possible exception will be over the far north where there
will be some moisture Saturday into Saturday night. However the
airmass will be stable so any precipitation that does develop will
be light. Blank
Sunday night through Friday...High pressure ridge dominating factor
early in the forecast period. Current models show energy moving in
from the west mostly being steered to the north and around Montana.
Exception is one small weather system that will try to slip under
the ridge clipping southwest Montana Monday night and Tuesday. Next
Pacific low pressure trough starts to push inland on Wednesday. At
this time...appears this system will maintain enough structure and
strength to move through north central and southwest Montana
Wednesday night and Thursday. Models have some differences in
tracking of trough with GFS moving it through more quickly and
putting the best chance for precipitation over north central
Montana. ECMWF is trending slower and while core of precipitation
with this model is also north, it also indicates a chance of some
rain over southwest Montana. Thunderstorms a definite possibility
during the afternoon and evening hours during the period.
Temperatures throughout the period will generally be near to
slightly above seasonal averages.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Small streams and creeks remain high and out of their banks across a
large portion of central and north central Montana. Areal flood
warnings will continue for Hill/Blaine/Fergus Counties. Point flood
warnings remain in effect for three locations: Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
These points are expected to remain near or above flood stage into
next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fall over the
flooded areas tonight...but precipitation should be light and
should not significantly affect runoff.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 49 72 46 78 / 20 10 10 0
CTB 49 71 44 75 / 50 10 10 0
HLN 53 76 48 82 / 20 0 0 0
BZN 46 75 42 82 / 20 0 0 0
WEY 39 71 36 75 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 46 75 44 82 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 53 72 48 77 / 60 10 10 0
LWT 49 68 44 74 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning through Monday morning for Blaine, Fergus, and Hill
Counties.
Flood Warning until further notice for Big Sandy Creek near
Havre, Clear Creek near Chinook, and the Milk River near Harlem.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
124 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE STORM WITH MORE RAIN WILL COME IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE... +RA IS BRUSHING FAR ERN PIKE/SULLIVAN/DELAWARE
CNTYS ATTM. RADAR MOSAICS/SAT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED...WITH RAINFALL TAPERING OFF AFTER 04-07Z. FLOOD WATCH
WILL STILL BE RETAINED FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHWS...PATCHY -RA/DZ SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AGN...JUST MINOR
TEMP/DEW PT TWEAKS WERE MADE.
PREV DISC... 7 PM UPDATE... THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA WERE CENTERED
OVER SE VA EARLY THIS EVE...WITH A CONTINUED STEADY NEWD HEADING
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE WRN FRINGES OF THE STEADY RAIN HAVE HAD
TROUBLE MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TWDS THE NW DURG THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVE HRS.
AS PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HANDLED THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF ANDREA QUITE WELL THE LAST 6-12 HRS...THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD SHOULD MAKE A BIT OF AN INLAND PUSH MORE
TWDS A TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA LN BY 02-03Z. HOWEVER...BY LTR
TNT...AS ANDREA TRACKS TWDS THE NJ/SRN LONG ISLAND SHORE AREAS...AND
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC IN NATURE...THE PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD PIVOT...AND START TO PUSH EWD OUT OF THE FA.
BOTTOM LN...OUTSIDE OF CAT POPS FOR STEADY RAIN IN OUR ERN
ZNS...WE`RE SIMPLY GOING TO CALL IT LGT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND HI-RES NWP GUIDANCE. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE +RA WILL EITHER BYPASS OUR
CWA TO THE E...OR JUST SCRAPE ERN PIKE/SULLIVAN CNTYS FOR A BRIEF
TIME LTR TNT. UNTIL WE SEE CLEAR EVIDENCE...HOWEVER...THAT OUR ERN
CNTYS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS...WE`LL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH.
TEMPS/DEW PTS WERE JUST TWEAKED SLIGHTLY THIS EVE.
EARLIER DISC... 4 PM UPDATE... FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR PIKE SULLIVAN
DELAWARE THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE CALL WITH THE
TROPICAL PRECIP COMING IN NOW AND LASTING INTO EARLY MORNING. QPF
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT OUR FURTHEST SE COULD GET 3 OR 4 INCHES IN
EXTREME SE SULLIVAN AND PIKE. IF THESE AMOUNTS HOLD HEADWATER
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. IN THE LAST
24 HOURS MOSTLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE WATCH AREA AND A
LITTLE TO THE NW OF THAT. HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE PA NJ BORDER
BUT MOST OF THAT GONE AND NOT MUCH YET TODAY. IN THE SE PWATS OF
1.5 INCHES WILL GIVE RAINFALL RATES WHICH WILL INCREASE TO HALF AN
INCH AN HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS AROUND MIDNIGHT. STEADY RAIN WILL
PROBABLY MOVE TO A ELM SYR LINE BUT MOST OF CENT NY WILL GET LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH.
TRACK OF ANDREA RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SO WIND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
IN THE CWA. ANDREA WILL HELP BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN AHEAD
OF IT. THE LIFT WITH IT AT LOW LEVELS AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF STRONG UL JET MEANS DEEP LIFT. ANDREA MOVES OUT INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM SO RAIN WILL END BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVG THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY THE
AFTN WITH A LITTLE HEATING. A WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT
NGT THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY. WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE TOUGH TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. SOME SUN
WILL PUSH TEMPS TO A70 SAT THEN 75 TO 80 SUNDAY.
A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLOW MOVING SO ONLY A
CHC OF SHOWERS SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. THE WARM FRONT GETS HERE ON
MONDAY WITH A STRONG TEMP AND MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE FRONT AHEAD
OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. SOME
CLEARING AND LARGE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY POSSIBLE IN NE PA AND
MAYBE CENT NY DURING THE AFTN AND EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
STILL FAIRLY BUSY IN THE LONG TERM...WITH TROUGHY PATTERN ONLY
GRADUALLY LETTING GO IN FAVOR OF ATTEMPTED RIDING TOWARDS THE NEXT
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WET PATTERN OF LATE...CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE LONG TERM MAY POSE WATER ISSUES FOR THE MOST
SENSITIVE AREAS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFICS OF UPPER LOW AND/OR TROUGH
PLACEMENTS...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT ON TUESDAY SOME SORT OF
ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH. AS WELL AS
CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...I ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF INSTABILITY CAN BE MANAGED. GFS
SUGGESTS FAIRLY POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD
ALLOW THUNDER.
UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES IN CENTRAL ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY...WITH UNCERTAIN AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE BROADLY
AROUND IT /MORE SO IN GFS/. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FIGURED
FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON UPPER LOW DEPARTING BUT DISAGREE ON IF
FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC IN ITS WAKE...YET EITHER WAY MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED SO I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO TAKE CHARGE INTO FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST FLAT
RIDGING IF NOT OUTRIGHT UPPER RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN THAT
FLOW...BUT OVERALL VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND SURFACE HIGH WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST FRIDAY...THUS I OPTED LOWER
THAN WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARND AS THE REMAINS OF TS ANDREA ZIP UP THE
CST. THIS WILL CONT THE SPOTTY IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS INTO
SAT. WEAK HIPRES AND SLOW DRYING ARRIVES SAT AFTN AND WILL CONT
THE SLOW IMPRVMT OF CONDS WITH VFR LIKELY AFT 18Z AND CONTG THRU
THE END OF THE PD. LGT WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME WLY ON SAT BUT
LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH THE WEK GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HI.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT-SUN...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY
KELM PREDAWN HRS SUN MRNG.
SUN NGT THRU TUE...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WED...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...CMG/DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
151 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
POST-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA
OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SHORTLY EXIT ROBESON COUNTY. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATER THIS
MORNING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 7:30 PM FOLLOWS BELOW:
NOW THAT ANDREA IS OUT OF OUR HAIR...ATTENTION IS TURNING UPSTREAM
TO AN IMPRESSIVE LITTLE VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT
IS HELPING SUPPORT QUITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA
INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE ALL MODELS SHOW THE HEART OF THIS
DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...AN ASSOCIATED 200/300 MB JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE LIFT
EVEN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERMALLY...LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEPER THAN THE MOIST
ADIABATIC RATE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP
CONVECTION GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME CAPPED OFF DUE TO A COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED FROM 950 MB WOULD
ONLY HAVE TO OVERCOME A SMALL NEGATIVE REGION TO RELEASE 500-1000
J/KG OF CAPE.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF
AUGUSTA GA SHOWS IT COULD BE MOVING INTO FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 11 PM. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF CHARLOTTE COULD MOVE INTO THE PEE DEE REGION NORTH OF
FLORENCE BY 11 PM. THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST POTENTIAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE 11PM TO 2 AM TIME
FRAME. LESSER COVERAGE IS INDICATED AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE CAPE FEAR COAST AFTER 2 AM. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST HAVE
FOCUSED ON THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL
BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO START THE DAY IN EXCESS
OF ONE AND A HALF INCHES. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED
ABOVE 10 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING
THE EVE AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY SKIM PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST LATE AT NIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACTUALLY INCREASE AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WEAK CAP HANGING ON THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS MAY SERVE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO
FOCUS/CONVERGE/LIFT MOISTURE BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...AND SO
THERE MAY BE A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE BOUNDARY ON THAT DAY.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ALTHOUGH THE GROUND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SEVERAL WILL APPROACH FLOOD STAGE.
AT THIS TIME...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
FEAR RIVER AROUND WILLIAM O HUSKE.
TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S WITH PERHAPS A 90 DEGREE READING WELL INLAND...
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SO IT WILL FEEL HUMID.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DAMPENING OUT. THE REGION WILL BE IN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE FLOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE SECOND
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...KLBT MAY BE IMPACTED BY INLAND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
VERY START OF THE TAF PERIOD...WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. ANY PCPN SHOULD HELP FURTHER SATURATE THE NEAR SFC
LAYER...AND SO MVFR FOG APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR KLBT/KFLO
BEFORE DAYBREAK. ALONG THE COAST...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR ANY FOG FORMATION. DURING THE DAY...VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SC/BKN CU AROUND 3-4KFT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG
THE COAST LATER THIS AFTN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS TODAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN-LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 7:30 PM FOLLOWS:
POST-TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND HER
EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF ANDREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DIMINISH...AND ARE STILL
BEING MEASURED AT 13 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND 6-8
FEET AT THE NEARSHORE BUOY ARRAY NEAR CAPE FEAR. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST IS TO INCREASE FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS
NEARSHORE WHERE THE OCEAN CREST PIER WAVE GAUGE IS SHOWING 6 FT SEAS
JUST OUTSIDE THE SURF ZONE...IMPLYING SUBSTANTIAL UPWARD REVISIONS
OF UP TO +4 FEET ARE NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECASTS WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF SHORE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD IN THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE ITS
PASSAGE DOWN TO THE COAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH AFTER 2 AM...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING
DRY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ROUGH SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY
SAT...BUT A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SAT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. SW WINDS SAT AND SAT NIGHT
WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO SSW SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE BUILDING WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE REORIENTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF NOON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO START FROM 3 TO 4 FEET WITH ISOLATED
5 FOOTERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. AS THE FRONTAL BOUND DRAWS NEAR TO THE
MARINE WATERS A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ254-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
222 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE GOTTEN RID OF ALL HEADLINES ANS THE LAST VESTIGE OF TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA HAS PASSED EASTWARD OF MY CWA. THE RUC AND OTHER
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE 0.25 TO 0.5 OVER THE SOUTH EAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVERDONE ALREADY...WILL TREND
POPS AND QPF LOWER. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
STILL MAINTAINING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ALONG THE LAURELS AND
ALLEGHENIES...AND THROUGH THE NW MTNS. THESE ARE QUASI STATIONARY
AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. AS THE OUTPUTS FOR THESE ARE AT A
0.10 OR LESS...ARE NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECT LOW 50S IN THE NW TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW LYING REGIONS AND VALLEYS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT IT SPREADING...THOUGH THE LOW STRATOCU WILL HAMPER
THIS DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND THE LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS HIGHER...ALLOWING IT TO BE A BIT
MUGGY...AS THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEG
WARMER THAN TODAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN
TRYING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
THE SREF AND GEFS DOWNPLAY THINGS SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT WE WILL START THE DAY
CLOUDY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AND JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY
TO THE EAST OF 90W AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF MON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COMBINE TO FINALLY NUDGE
THE DECAYING UPPER LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
THE WETTEST TIMEFRAME WOULD APPEAR TO COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADVECTED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE ERN GLAKS
MON AND TUE BEFORE SLOWLY PROPAGATING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER AIR APPROACHES IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROF FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY KEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A
CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY. COMPLICATING
THINGS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS TO MY SOUTH AND DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BROAD SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GLAKS TO WELL OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH COULD
TAP WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND BRING COOL/DRIZZLY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. PLAYED THINGS OPTIMISTICALLY AT THIS
POINT TRENDING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH...AND WE`LL SEE
HOW THE EASTERLY FLOW AND FETCH OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT...BUT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE LARGELY EAST
OF CWA.
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STILL MAINTAINING IFR/MVFR
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS ALONG THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES AND THROUGH
THE NW MTNS OVERNIGHT...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING VFR CIGS TO THE SE /WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS UNTIL THEN/.
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH 09Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY...WITH VFR BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
BY LATE MORNING AS THE STORM PULLS FURTHER OFF TO OUR EAST AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN REDUCE CIGS AND
VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY IFR/MVFR...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS MAINLY IN THE SW.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ESP MON-MON NIGHT/. SCT PM
TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ANY REMNANTS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND QPF WILL BE 0.5 OR LOWER FOR
ANY ZONES THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED ANY PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE
DROPPED ALL HEADLINES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CERU
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
415 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH A WEAK MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH RESIDING OVER SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION /PWAT VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES/ EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED TO THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. BOTH THE TEXAS TECH AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVING
INLAND...THOUGH HRRR KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION
OFFSHORE AND EARLIER IN THE MORNING. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES. AS BOUNDARY MOVES TO
THE NORTH THIS MORNING WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETURN TO A WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TAIL END OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ON MONDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OUT OF
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BEHIND MONDAY OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND COASTAL BEND ALONG WITH POOL OF HIGHER MOISTURE. COULD BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND BENEATH IT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS INTO A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALSO WORKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HIGH ENOUGH VALUES AND
MARGINAL MID LEVELS TEMPS ACROSS THE CRP CWA TO SUPPORT 10-20 POPS
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE COASTAL BEND DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SHIFTING INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 78 95 79 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 90 75 91 75 92 / 30 10 20 10 20
LAREDO 96 78 98 75 96 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 91 75 96 76 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 83 80 91 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
COTULLA 95 76 99 75 98 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 89 77 95 76 95 / 30 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 79 90 79 90 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1127 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A GENERAL
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH AN ASSOCIATED CIRRUS CANOPY ALREADY
ADVECTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX. THE LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN
AREA OF GREATER STABILITY. LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL...HOWEVER..SEE A LOT OF
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE FIRST 12-18 HRS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME AFTERNOON CU GENERALLY
ABOVE 5 KFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IF ANYTHING
DEVELOPS IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH BY 15Z AND INCREASING TO
12-15 KTS BY MIDDAY. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KSJT
AND KABI.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NM WILL
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT OVERSPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER. IF
IT DOES INDEED REMAIN INTACT...THE TIMING WILL BE AROUND 12...
FAVORING THE KABI OR KSJT TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 12-15 KTS /WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES/
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
SHORT TERM...
.THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INTO A
COMPLEX LATER TONIGHT...ENTERING WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND THE NORTH EDWARDS PLATEAU AROUND 4 AM. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE NAM DISSIPATES ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF
THE AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AND GFS AS CONVECTION SHOULD
SUSTAIN ITSELF GIVEN THE SHORT WAVE AND A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
JET THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING. WENT WITH
20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTH
EDWARDS PLATEAU. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS
KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...WEAKENING OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BIG COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS TEXAS NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A HOT AND DRY FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 63 89 72 93 74 / 20 20 10 5 5
SAN ANGELO 62 92 72 96 74 / 30 20 5 5 5
JUNCTION 62 91 70 93 73 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS WITH WHEN THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND WHEN ANY
THUNDER MAY OCCUR.
CURRENTLY...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS WERE NOTED VIA WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08.07Z RAP ANALYSIS WITH ONE WEST TO EAST TROUGH
FROM THE UP OF MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER...MORE
VIGOROUS...WAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A LOW ANALYZED IN EASTERN MONTANA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WHAT
APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 700-500MB. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE DRY TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN UNTIL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE WAVE...SO EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAX
OUT IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
THICKENS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WHEN THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN AS THE MAIN WING
OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE TREND WITH
THE 08.00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO GO A BIT SLOWER AND SOUTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN GETTING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE IN SOUTH DAKOTA...EXPECT THAT
THE BEST INITIAL THUNDER CHANCES WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST CHANNEL OF 850-925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES UP INTO
THE REGION. BASED ON 08.00Z GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
THUNDER WEST OF THE RIVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF THE RIVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH FOLLOWS WHERE THIS MAIN LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT IS.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ROUND AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
GOING INTO THE SUNDAY THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND WEAKENING OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A GENERAL TRACK OF IT GOING THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GETS CUT
OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND APPEARS TO TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. OF THESE THREE
MODELS...THE GFS PRODUCES THE MOST 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT ALSO HAS SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S WHICH...WHEN MODIFIED TO AROUND 60 IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...ONLY PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO RELEGATED TO THE
LOWEST 1 OR 2KM...SO THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH.
THE 08.00Z NAM IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLIER AS IT IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE CLOSING OFF OF THE LOW AND POSES SOME CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WPC MENTIONS IN THE PMDHMD THIS MORNING THAT WHILE THE
00Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREFERENCE OF THE OTHER MODELS...IT
HAS ISSUES IN HOW IT IS HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. DESPITE THIS...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE ALL SHOWN
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE DRY LINE. THE 08.00Z NAM ALSO
DEVELOPS TOO HIGH OF SURFACE DEW POINTS...MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH
YIELDS TOO HIGH OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...EVEN MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
FOR A 60F SURFACE DEW POINT STILL BRINGS ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALL IN THE LOWEST 2-3KM...BUT DOES HAVE A
LOT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH IT. DESPITE THIS SCENARIO NOT
LOOKING VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
LEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS
WITH STRONG WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH TRACKS TO THE EAST AND A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS
LIKE A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN FALLING
ACROSS THIS REGION. PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 08.00Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH STARTING THIS RAIN UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING
IT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
ALTOSTRATUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES FROM THE DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING
THERE. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECLUDE RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION.
DRIER AIR BELOW THESE CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. PLAN ON THE HIGH TO SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS. THESE WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE
EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. SOME CONCERN
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT RST...BUT IT APPEARS THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED...AT LEAST
BEFORE 06Z. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING WINDS...EXPECTING
SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS THE TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE UP TO AT LEAST 3000-4000 FT ABOVE
THE GROUND...HAVE KEPT BOTH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS VFR. BETTER
SHOT FOR LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AFTER
06Z...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AFTER 06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1051 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
STRONG SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND LARAMIE COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAIN HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS SO FAR. LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH
AROUND 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. WITH THESE TYPE OF VALUES...CONCERN
WILL STILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE
HAIL THREAT IS QUITE SMALL. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING EASTWARD OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
00-12Z...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT IN THAT REGION. THIS IS WHERE THE
STRONGEST ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE AS THE SYSTEM DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
SFC TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH
PRESSURE RISES AND A FROPA. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH NORTHWESTERLY 700MB
WINDS AROUND 30-35 KT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WHILE IT WILL BE
A BREEZY DAY...BELIEVE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST 850-700MB WINDS ARE OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PANHANDLE
FOR SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING LIGHT
QPF IN THE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE REAL WARM-UP
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. A RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS IT CROSSES THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE LARAMIE
RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE.
A CLOSED LOW ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OPENS UP WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH TUESDAY AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR
CONVECTION WILL SET UP FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX AS
THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS.
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WEST OF THE
GREAT BASIN...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEFLECT ANY
SHORTWAVES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST
ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS SHOW A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM RAWLINS TO CHADRON.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
RISING SUNDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 16C. HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD MONDAY...700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 19C...WHICH EQUATES TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH THE
MERCURY INTO THE 80S AND 90S. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
EQUALED OR EXCEEDED IN SOME AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRIM HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL REMAIN
WARM. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10 DEGREES...AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AS A RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED NEAR THIS WAVE.
WINDS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND THEN 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE
10-15 PERCENT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL ALSO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25-30 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FUELS ARE STILL GREEN AND DO NOT SUPPORT LARGE FIRE GROWTH...THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...LIEBL
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1059 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLD -SHRA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
NJ...WITH MORE NUMEROUS -SHRA BACK TOWARDS BWI/DCA AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
LATEST RUC/NAM/HRRR/SREF SUGGEST ENTIRE AREA WARRANTS AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REMAINDER OF DAY. WITH RUC SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER INTERIOR ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE ELSEWHERE...HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. 35-45 KT OF BULK SHEAR WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-40 OVER THE INTERIOR ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS FROM 1.25-1.5 INCHES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH MIXING
DOWN FROM 875 HPA...AND BLENDING WITH NAM AND HRRR 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV...0Z MET...AND 0Z BIAS CORRECTED MOSGUIDE
GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...BUT FROM AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
FOR THE HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENT THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION OF THE AFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/TSRA
EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ONCE AGAIN.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING SETTLES INTO THE NE AND COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES TO S WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THEN GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
AREA.
FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX
ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE LOW...INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 280-310. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE TEENS. A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AT KJFK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...DO
NOT THINK THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL GO THROUGH KLGA. LATE THIS
EVENING THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND THE LIGHT WIND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING
AND FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN VFR IS EXPECTED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN ADDING ISOLD TSTMS IN THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE...SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS WILL AVERAGE
6-10 FT TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SCA ENDS OVER WESTERN OCEAN WATERS BY 6 AM SUNDAY
AND FOR THE REST OF THE OCEAN WATERS...BY 11 AM SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS.
SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN 2 COASTAL OCEAN ZONES
INTO SUNDAY...THEN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SWELL COULD RESULT IN SCA LEVEL SEAS RETURNING
TO THE 2 EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS WHERE WATER HAS PONDED...AND THE SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS MORNING. MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO RUNOFF...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 OF AN INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS IN LOCATIONS RECEIVING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BREAKING SURF WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 10 FT TODAY...RESULTING IN A HIGH
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES. MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS WELL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/MPS
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS NEAR THE NEB
STATE LINE. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AS NOTED ON
THE RAP AND NAM PROGS. INSTABILITY PER THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAINS LIMITED AND THIS SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE SHOWERS. THINK THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM WY INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
SEEN ON THE 11Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO WY. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY CAUSING CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN WY. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS GRADUALLY
BEEN DEEPENING ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER WY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
WITH THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING TO AROUND 60.
ADDITIONALLY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING A MODIFIED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THAT THERE WILL BE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSE TO 90 PERCENT. WITH
RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER...MODEL PROGS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER MODEST
ON CAPE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH STEEPER THAN THE MOIST
ADIABAT. THE CONCERN IS THE LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 BULK
SHEER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS. MODELS SHOW THE
COLLOCATION OF THE LOWEST LCL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL SHEER TO BE ALONG
HWY 36 AND TO THE NORTH. SO IF THERE WERE ANY DISCRETE STORMS...
THERE COULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. HOWEVER WITH STORMS
ONGOING UPSTREAM WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WE MAY BE MORE INCLINED TO
HAVE SOME SORT OF MCS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY MID AFTERNOON
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY
END UP BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE WAVE WAITING UNTIL IT REACHES THE MO RIVER TO BEGIN TO CLOSE. SO
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST FORCING TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND AND
EXPECTING MAINLY AN MCS FOR STORM MODE...THINK STORMS WILL MOVE OFF
INTO MO AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POPS DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. SO LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
BEHIND THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING...MAY STILL
SEE SOME POST FRONTAL ELEVATED SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
OVER EAST CENTRAL KS. OTHERWISE THE STACKED CYCLONE EXITS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ALLOWING SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA BY
THE AFTERNOON...00Z GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN TRYING TO LIFT THE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WITH SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR NOW AS BEST FORCING STAYS OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS.
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A SFC LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY EVENING. GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO
ECMWF. STILL A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY WE COULD SEE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOP AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS SURFACE TROF
LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
12Z H85 TEMPS NEAR 28C SUGGEST WE COULD SEE A TASTE OF SUMMER
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. OPTED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...HOWEVER INTERESTING TO
NOTE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS THE WARMEST SCENARIO WITH MIXING UP TO 850
MB TRANSLATING TO THE MIDDLE 90S ON TUES AND WED SO MAY NEED TO
WATCH TO SEE IF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS THIS WAY. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS GAINS CONTROL BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH CLEAR SKIES...AMPLE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HIGHS STEADY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS IS HIGH DUE TO
GOOD CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY IN THE SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA.
CURIOUSLY THE OBJECTIVE MOS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH ONLY VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST CIGS
COULD STAY ABOVE 3KFT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT BROUGHT ANY MVFR CIGS IN
YET AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS. DID BRING SOME
MVFR VSBY INTO THE TERMINALS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. TIMINGS
IS A BEST GUESS BASED OFF OF THE ARW/HRRR/RAP13/NAM CONSENSUS OF
CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AROUND 22Z FOR MHK AND 01Z
FOR TOP AND FOE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
751 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. GFS 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS FOR TODAY...20 PERCENT. RADAR MOSAIC STILL
SHOWING AN OCCASIONAL POP UP FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THOUGHTS ARE THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ONLY HELP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE LATER TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. TODAYS
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW STRONG WILL THE RESULTING DEVELOPING
CAP BE AND HOW SOON WILL IT BEGIN TO DAMPEN CONVECTION GENERATED BY
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT THROUGH 18Z TO
21Z. 06Z NAM/10Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION...BUT POSSIBLY SLOW GROWTH OF
CELLS. ALSO...NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT INHIBIT GROWTH ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDER. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS
ADVERTISES A STRONGER CAP...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWERS FROM
FIRING...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. HENSE THE
LOWER POP GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS...SLIGHT VERSUS CHANCE FROM THE NAM
GUIDANCE. THE HRRR SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AFTER ABOUT 15Z OR
16Z...BEING MORE NUMEROUS OR SCATTERED IN NATURE. BUT THE HRRR
USUALLY HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN OUR ORIGINAL SLIGHT POP...ISOLD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
AND ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM
AND RAP SOUNDINGS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS.
NO CHANGES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE ATTM...THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY MIGHT BE A
BETTER DESCRIPTION TO SKY COVER THAN THE CURRENT PC WORDING...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA
WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS ALONG
WITH ISOLD SHOWERS...OR PATCHY SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF FAVORABLE
DIURNAL HEATING CAN BE TAPPED INTO. HOWEVER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY
STRENGTHENING A MID LEVEL CAP AND SHUTTING DOWN CONVECTION FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN MOVES TO OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT SOME RAINFALL.
INCREASE POPS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL...FOLLOWING TRENDS IN
MODELS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR TEMPS JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPONSOR A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SCOOP UP SOME HIGH PWAT AIR AND SHOVE IT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTION SO WILL NOT
GO HOG WILD WITH RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...KEEPING THEM BELOW
CATEGORICAL RANGES. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF FORCING
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET
ALL HOLD THAT OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. THE GFS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD TEND TO BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES TO OUR NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ANY SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN AGAIN BE ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. A STOUT UPPER
RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
DUE TO SOME LIGHT FOG VSBYS MAY START OUT WITHIN MVFR LEVELS DURING
THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF BUT EXPECTING A QUICK REBOUND INTO VFR
TERRITORY...AND FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN...THOUGH FROM ALL APPEARANCES OUR SOUTHWEST
TERMINAL MAY MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE ACTION. RADAR MOSAIC STILL
SHOWING AN OCCASIONAL POP UP FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THOUGHTS ARE THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ONLY HELP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE LATER TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT AMOUNT
OF COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER TERMINALS
WILL SEE ANYTHING WITHIN THE VICINITY OF EACH TERMINAL. BUT ADDED VCSH
TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THE POTENTIAL. BASED ON LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EITHER...BUT
THESE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
936 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS ANDREA NEAR CAPE COD
THIS MORNING WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO RACE EASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN
ASSOC WITH THE REMAINS OF ANDREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND THE FLOOD
WATCHES. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
EXITING PCPN.
AREA RIVERS WILL STILL BE ON THE RISE...BUT FLOODING IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED.
WILL INTRODUCE SOME SUNSHINE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS A DRIER NW
WIND ALLOWS FOR DOWNSLOPING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SRN AREAS TO JUMP
AOA 70 DEGREES FOR AN AFTN HIGH TEMP.
PREV DISC...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING REACHING THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UP TO THIS POINT...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL TO OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. LATEST
RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN MASS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN MAINE
THROUGH DAYBREAK. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BY
LATE THIS MORNING WHEN RAIN WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL RIVERS FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE LATER TODAY AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH NO FLOODING OCCURRING
YET WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE.
WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AS SOME SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE BY LATE IN THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR LOWER TO MID 70S IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND EAST TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES AT TIMES BUT SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOOKING FOR LOWS OVER NIGHT GENERALLY NEAR 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTH AND RANGING THROUGH THE 70S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NGT WITH WEAK
SFC HIGH AND DRY WX FOR THE FCST AREA. THE UPR LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO
GET PUSHED TO THE E AS AN UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES E THRU THE
MID WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NGT. THIS FORCES A SFC LOW TO TRACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FNT EXTENDING TO THE SE TO THE E
COAST. THIS WX SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHRA NE INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
SW TO NE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NGT. THE UPR LVL SYSTEM CUTS OFF
OVER THE NE INTO CLOSED LOW THAT FORCES THE SFC LOW TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION MONDAY NGT THRU WEDNESDAY NGT
WITH SHRA CONTINUING. THE UPR LVL AND SFC LOWS FINALLY SHIFT TO
THE E ON THURSDAY...BUT SLOW ENOUGH SO THAT SHRA MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY. GENERALLY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF THOUGH IT IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE 00Z GFS DEPARTS FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF BY TRYING TO BRING IN A SECOND UPR LVL
AND SFC SYSTEM TO EXTEND PRCP INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE PREFERRED
ECMWF LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND WARMER DAY. QPF
AMOUNTS MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU THURSDAY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN...OR MORE...PSBL. USED HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5 THEN BLEND OF GMOS AND GFS BEYOND THAT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
VFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LOWERING TO IFR OR
LOWER IN DEVELOPING SHRA FROM SW TO NE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THEN CONTINUING THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH TODAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WINDS AND GUSTS STAY
BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SE WINDS BACKING TO
E THEN NE WILL GENERATE BUILDING SEAS THAT COULD REACH SCA LEVELS
AROUND 5 OR 6 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE
GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG ALONG THE W COAST. THERE IS ALSO A
RATHER WEAK UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO...WITH A 1015MB SFC HI CENTERED
OVER WRN LK SUP. A SHRTWV IS DRIFTING SEWD THRU NCENTRAL MN ON THE
SRN FLANK OF THIS RDG. THE INTERACTION BTWN THE DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AND BAND OF H85 FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF 60KT H3 JET
MAX SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV AND MID LVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
/KINX 29/ APPEARS TO BE GENERATING SOME ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE FAR WRN
CWA PER RADAR RETURNS IN THAT AREA. BUT DRYNESS OF LLVLS SHOWN ON
THE LOCAL 00Z RAOBS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY NOT BE
REACHING THE GROUND. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS...THE REST OF THE CWA
TO THE NE IS GENERALLY MOCLR WITH THE DRIER 00Z APX RAOB /KINX 16/
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE W...
A RATHER POTENT SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IN THE
NW FLOW ALF BTWN THE W COAST RDG AND GREAT LKS TROF.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV DRIFTING ESEWD THRU NRN MN.
TODAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W EARLY THIS
MRNG IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E ACRS NRN WI THIS MRNG AND THEN TO THE E
THRU NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO DNVA/HGT RISES OVER UPR MI
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THIS CHAIN OF EVENTS WOULD INDICATE THE -SHRA
NOW OVER THE W WL ALSO DRIFT TO THE E WITH THE SUPPORTING DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH DRYING OVER THE W TAKING HOLD IN ITS WAKE...BULK OF
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE ERN CWA WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE DAY
WITH MORE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT FORM IN THE WEAK LLVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FLAT HI PRES. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR IWD THIS
AFTN FOR T/TD OF 70/44 YIELDS SBCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG WITH KINX OF
27...SO WL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS
INDICATE THE LLVLS OVER THE E WL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN...SO
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. THS SDNGS ALSO SHOW SOME MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE W LATER IN THE AFTN WITH STRENGTHENING MID LVL INVRN
UNDER THE DNVA...SO ANY -SHRA THERE SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER.
MIXING TO H8-85 ON FCST SDNGS AND H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 9C SUPPORT HI
TEMPS REACHING 70 TO 75 AWAY FM LK MODERATION.
TONIGHT...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS TO
THE E OF STRONG SHRTWV NOW IN THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS FCST TO REACH
FAR SW MN BY 12Z SUN. WITH THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND WANING
DAYTIME HEATING...ANY ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
EARLY IN THE EVNG AND GIVE WAY TO MOCLR SKIES. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST
TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE SOME HI CLDS MAY ALSO ARRIVE LATE
TO THE NE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO
REMAIN ON THE SLOWER SIDE AS LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
STAY SOMEWHAT BLOCKY. TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE
LONG TERM BECOMES RE-INFORCED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SLIDES ACROSS CNTRL CONUS TO NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEN AS THIS LEADING TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. MAIN RESULT WOULD
BE TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
PRIMARY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
FOCUSING IN ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS
THERE MAY BE CUTOFF FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER EASTERN CWA.
ECMWF SHOWED THIS ON FRIDAY AND LATEST RUNS OF GFS/GEM-NH/UKMET PICK
UP ON THIS AS WELL. 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AS IT IS
FARTHER EAST AND CLOSED OFF WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY 00Z MONDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO EASTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. ECMWF/GFS
NOW REPRESENTS MIDDLE GROUND WITH EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP AS NAM IS
EASTERN OUTLIER WHILE GEM-NH AND UKMET WOULD BE WESTERN OUTLIERS AS
THEY SHOW LITTLE QPF EVEN INTO CNTRL CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. ECMWF/GFS
INDICATE SWATH OF H85-H7/H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WEST HALF
OF CWA BY 00Z MONDAY WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED MOSTLY INTO
WESTERN CWA ON SSE FLOW ARCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PATTERN
JUST DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH RAIN MAKING IT INTO EASTERN CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPLITS
OVER TIME WITH ONE PIECE OF TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OTHER/STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVING FROM CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. KEPT GENERAL THEME
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WAS MORE STUBBORN TO BRING HIGHER POPS
INTO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SHRA OVER
EAST ON SUNDAY NUDGED TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S THERE BUT KEPT READINGS
OVER FAR SW/WEST IN LOWER 60S DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LIKELY POPS OVER WEST AND CENTRAL STILL SEEM ON TRACK THOUGH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SI/S LESS THAN 0C
PEGGING TSRA OVER DAKOTAS CURRENTLY. SI/S MAINLY STAY ABOVE 0C INTO
UPR MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOLLOWING SREF 3HR PROBS FOR TSRA
DID KEEP SMALL MENTION IN FAR SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECT DECAYING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AS SPLITTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DAMPEN ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER CWA. SOME
INDICATION THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE OR AT LEAST THE TAIL OF WAVE ON
NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND WEAK SFC TROUGH CROSSING AREA MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING SHRA MONDAY AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF INTERIOR. HEADED THAT
WAY FOR POPS...LINGERING SMALL CHANCES OVR MAINLY CNTRL CWA MONDAY
EVENING. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH MID-UPR
60S WHICH IS A BIT BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHER THAN ISOLD
SHRA TUESDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVE AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
THROUGH IN A FLATTER FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER LATER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL ALLOW AREAS JUST
INLAND FROM LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE TO WARM INTO THE LOW EVEN
MID 70S ON TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +10C.
AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVR CNTRL
CONUS...BULGE OF WARM AIR WITH H85 TEMPS OVER +20C SPREADS ACROSS
PLAINS TOWARD MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. SFC WARM FRONT
STAYS TO SOUTH OF UPR LAKES AND H85 WARM FRONT FORECAST TO STAY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. BASED ON H85 JET AND
EDGE OF 1-6KM MUCAPE ALONG WITH H85-H3 THICKNESSES...SEEMS THAT
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. MIGHT
BE CLOSE CALL THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN DURING THE
DAY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH H85 WARM FRONT A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS
MODELS WERE SHOWING EARLIER. JUST IN CASE MODELS JOG BACK NORTH
AGAIN KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE SOUTH CWA. ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPS IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER BUT INLAND AREAS WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE 70S AS LONG AS WARM FRONT SHRA/TSRA DO NOT COME TOO
FAR NORTH.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ON THROUGH BY 12Z THURSDAY RESULTING IN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE SLIPS IN
LATE IN THE DAY BUT WILL REALLY BE LACKING MOISTURE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A POP-UP SHRA OVER INTERIOR...BUT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLD IF IT OCCURS
AT ALL. NORTHERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN
SIMILAR TEMP PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY WITH 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND SOLID
MID 70S INLAND. SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY LEADING TO
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CLOSE THE WEEK. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY STAYS OVR THE PLAINS SO JUST HAVE
CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BETTER
CHANCE OF WARMING INTO THE MID-UPR 70S EVEN OVER NORTH CWA NEAR LK
SUPERIOR. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME OF SEEING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS SINCE THE FEW SUMMER LIKE DAYS WE HAD TO CLOSE THE
MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EVEN THOUGH THERE WL BE PLENTY OF MID CLDS THIS MRNG AND EVEN SOME
-SHRA AT MAINLY IWD AND PERHAPS SAW INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES THIS TAF PERIOD WITH DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON
LOCAL 00Z RAOBS. ALTHOUGH LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK HI PRES LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER IN THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN E-SE WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20 KTS ON SUN INTO MON. AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS SHOULD FALL
BELOW 20 KTS LATER ON MON THRU WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LONG RANGE 0.5 REFLECTIVITY INDICATING FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SODAK. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING INTO EASTERN SODAK BY
SUN/00Z TIME FRAME. USED HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAINLY NON-TSTORM
RAIN SHIELD OVER WESTERN THIRD OF CWA FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING
HOURS. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER INITIATION
ACROSS THIS REGION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS40 AND EUROPEAN
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN MOVEMENT OF EVENTUAL STACKED 50H AND SURFACE
SYSTEM BY SUN/12Z. DIFFERENCE BEING A SLIGHT DIP SOUTH OVER NW IA
WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SFC ELEMENT VS GFS40`S SLIGHTLY DEEPER
SOLUTION OVER SW MN. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LARGE
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEST OF A
LINE FROM KAXN TO FAIRMONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. USED GFS40 ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS TO PROG TIMING AND POSITION
OF CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FORWARD PROGRESSION OF
CONVECTION OVER REMAINDER OF FA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
REDWOOD FALLS TO RED WING. THIS WAS BASED ON BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IF
THIS PANS OUT...COULD EASILY SEE A SOLID INCH OF MOISTURE OVER
THIS AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA WHICH COULD INCUR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN CURRENTLY PROGGED IS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. TRIMMED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT
FOR BOTH INCREASING THICKNESS OF CLOUD DECK...AND DEVELOPING
MOISTURE PATTERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WILL BE JUST ABOUT OCCLUDED
BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM NRN IL NWD TO CENTRAL WI
AND WWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS ARC WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT A COLD POCKET OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL FACILITATE
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE VORT MAX
OVERHEAD WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ALL DAY. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY LOCALLY. GIVEN THE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF GREATER
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET OFF ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS...AND MAY LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO THAT TRANSPIRED WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ALL
DAY RAINS. MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 10 KTS COULD ALSO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE LOW SINKING SOUTHEAST SHOULD END THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING. INVERTED
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING
IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S.
RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THICKNESSES OFF
THE GFS/EURO RISE TOWARD 580 DAM OVER SWRN MN...NORMALLY
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...925 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND +20C SO HIGHS SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE
LOWER 80S. THE RELATIVELY COOL 925 MB TEMPS AND WARM THICKNESSES
ALSO INDICATE STRONG CAPPING...THUS A DRY FORECAST.
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE BUILDING PLAINS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES...BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST RISK AREA WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON. BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
MORNING ACROSS FAR SERN SD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK
NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY...IMPACTING RWF FIRST AND MSP/STC/RNH
THIS EVENING. PERIOD OF MODERATE/HVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN ADVANCES IN FROM THE SOUTH. BEST
ESTIMATE OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS BETWEEN 08-14Z WITH THUNDER ALSO
POSSIBLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH OCNL TSRA DIMINISHING BY EVENING. WIND
BCMG N 5 KT.
MON...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...VFR BY AFTERNOON. WIND NW 5-10
KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND LGT/VAR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1021 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
DROPPING SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MORNING ACTIVITY. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSIAC SHOWS THE ACTIVITY BECOMING MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
THE WEST WHICH LEADS TO SOME POSSIBILTY OF BREAKING OUT OF THE
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF
500MB HEIGHT FALLS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING WHICH WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROVIDING AREA FOR BROAD ASCENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE BIG CONDITION FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS CURRENT CLOUD COVER LIMITING SFC
HEATING. IF WE ARE ABLE TO BREAK OUT...WE DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS THE LATEST RAP/HRRR INDICATE. LOW LEVEL MOSIT ADVECTION AND AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING MAY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN.
KERN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...OTHWERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB
.A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 125 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND
50 METERS AT 500 MB WERE NOTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN DOWN INTO MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS
TAKING PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB...ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS
INITIALIZED 850 MB MOISTURE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN REALITY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BELIEVE THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW GENERALLY 25-35
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND BL CAPE VALUES UP TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES...
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE INCREASING. SO STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING PCPN. 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED
850 MB DEWPOINTS REACHING 10-13 DEGREES C BY EVENING. NAM WAS
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...BUT BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY EVENING. DID NOT GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY
AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID MENTION HEAVY RAIN. DAY SHIFT CAN LOOK AT
THAT MORE LATER.
CURRENT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OUR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP EWD/SEWD
THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HEATING AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER OR MID 70S. FARTHER SOUTH...LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS COULD REACH AROUND 80.
STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY
DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS AND QPF A LITTLE FOR AREAS
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OMAHA. PCPN IS NOT LIKELY TO LINGER MUCH PAST
7 PM...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY INTO FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LEFT BOTH DAY
PERIODS DRY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. BEST BET FOR STORMS IN
THAT PERIOD WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 80S AND
LOWER 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MILLER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS KALI AND KCRP THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL SITES LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO TURN TO EAST
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO A MODERATE FLOW IN EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AT END OF THE PERIOD CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN INCREASING
AND SITES WILL REACH MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH A WEAK MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH RESIDING OVER SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION /PWAT VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES/ EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED TO THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. BOTH THE TEXAS TECH AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVING
INLAND...THOUGH HRRR KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION
OFFSHORE AND EARLIER IN THE MORNING. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES. AS BOUNDARY MOVES TO
THE NORTH THIS MORNING WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETURN TO A WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TAIL END OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ON MONDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OUT OF
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BEHIND MONDAY OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND COASTAL BEND ALONG WITH POOL OF HIGHER MOISTURE. COULD BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND BENEATH IT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS INTO A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALSO WORKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HIGH ENOUGH VALUES AND
MARGINAL MID LEVELS TEMPS ACROSS THE CRP CWA TO SUPPORT 10-20 POPS
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE COASTAL BEND DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SHIFTING INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 78 95 79 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 90 75 91 75 92 / 30 10 20 10 20
LAREDO 96 78 98 75 96 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 91 75 96 76 96 / 30 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 83 80 91 80 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
COTULLA 95 76 99 75 98 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 89 77 95 76 95 / 30 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 79 90 79 90 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
653 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94 WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI...THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM. ISOLATED TSRA ARE ALSO
OCCURRING WITH CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE MEDFORD-
WAUSAU AREA. LOOKING AT THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM 500-300MB IT
IS ASTOUNDINGLY STRONG FOR JUNE WITH A VERY NICE DIPOLE OF
LIFT...FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE POST-WAVE. THUS...HAVE REALLY
INCREASED THE MORNING RAIN CHANCES AND ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST.
WOULD THINK MOS OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD BE MOST
ENHANCED THIS MORNING WITH A STABILITY BUILDING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE SUBSIDENT PART OF THE IMPULSE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
SUFFER A BIT TODAY AS WELL...BUT THIS IS TRICKY AND DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS WITH WHEN THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND WHEN ANY
THUNDER MAY OCCUR.
CURRENTLY...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS WERE NOTED VIA WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08.07Z RAP ANALYSIS WITH ONE WEST TO EAST TROUGH
FROM THE UP OF MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER...MORE
VIGOROUS...WAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A LOW ANALYZED IN EASTERN MONTANA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WHAT
APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 700-500MB. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE DRY TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN UNTIL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE WAVE...SO EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAX
OUT IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
THICKENS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WHEN THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN AS THE MAIN WING
OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE TREND WITH
THE 08.00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO GO A BIT SLOWER AND SOUTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN GETTING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE IN SOUTH DAKOTA...EXPECT THAT
THE BEST INITIAL THUNDER CHANCES WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST CHANNEL OF 850-925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES UP INTO
THE REGION. BASED ON 08.00Z GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
THUNDER WEST OF THE RIVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF THE RIVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH FOLLOWS WHERE THIS MAIN LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT IS.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ROUND AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
GOING INTO THE SUNDAY THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND WEAKENING OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A GENERAL TRACK OF IT GOING THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GETS CUT
OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND APPEARS TO TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. OF THESE THREE
MODELS...THE GFS PRODUCES THE MOST 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT ALSO HAS SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S WHICH...WHEN MODIFIED TO AROUND 60 IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...ONLY PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO RELEGATED TO THE
LOWEST 1 OR 2KM...SO THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH.
THE 08.00Z NAM IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLIER AS IT IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE CLOSING OFF OF THE LOW AND POSES SOME CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WPC MENTIONS IN THE PMDHMD THIS MORNING THAT WHILE THE
00Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREFERENCE OF THE OTHER MODELS...IT
HAS ISSUES IN HOW IT IS HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. DESPITE THIS...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE ALL SHOWN
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE DRY LINE. THE 08.00Z NAM ALSO
DEVELOPS TOO HIGH OF SURFACE DEW POINTS...MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH
YIELDS TOO HIGH OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...EVEN MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
FOR A 60F SURFACE DEW POINT STILL BRINGS ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALL IN THE LOWEST 2-3KM...BUT DOES HAVE A
LOT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH IT. DESPITE THIS SCENARIO NOT
LOOKING VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
LEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS
WITH STRONG WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH TRACKS TO THE EAST AND A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS
LIKE A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN FALLING
ACROSS THIS REGION. PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 08.00Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH STARTING THIS RAIN UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING
IT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY MAKE FOR NICE FLYING WEATHER. A STRONG SYSTEM
WILL BE HEADING INTO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. WOULD THINK IFR IS MOST LIKELY 12Z SUNDAY AT KRST IN
-SHRA...WITH LOW MVFR AT KLSE...AND POSSIBLY IFR TOO.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
146 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLD -SHRA MOVING INTO SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WITH MORE NUMEROUS -SHRA BACK TOWARDS NE VA/E MD/DE AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL NY INTO WESTERN VA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LATEST RUC/HRRR SUGGEST WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES WARRANT CHANCE POPS
FOR SCT COVERAGE WITH ISOLD COVERAGE ELSEWHERE...SO HAVE UPDATED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. RUC STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE OVER INTERIOR ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE ELSEWHERE...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. 35-45 KT OF
BULK SHEAR WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-40 OVER THE INTERIOR
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.25-1.5 INCHES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH MIXING
DOWN FROM 875 HPA...AND BLENDING WITH NAM AND HRRR 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV...0Z MET...AND 0Z BIAS CORRECTED MOSGUIDE
GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...BUT FROM AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
FOR THE HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENT THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION OF THE AFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/TSRA
EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ONCE AGAIN.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING SETTLES INTO THE NE AND COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES TO S WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THEN GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
AREA.
FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX
ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 210-270. SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 KT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE TEENS. A
SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...DO NOT THINK THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL GO
THROUGH KLGA. LATE THIS EVENING THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND THE LIGHT WIND WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR OR MVFR THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...THEN VFR IS EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z-22Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE...SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS WILL AVERAGE
6-10 FT TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SCA ENDS OVER WESTERN OCEAN WATERS BY 6 AM SUNDAY
AND FOR THE REST OF THE OCEAN WATERS...BY 11 AM SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS.
SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN 2 COASTAL OCEAN ZONES
INTO SUNDAY...THEN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SWELL COULD RESULT IN SCA LEVEL SEAS RETURNING
TO THE 2 EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT-ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY LESS THAN
1/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS RUNNING 1.25-1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER LEVELS IN SMALL
STREAMS...WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING THERE IF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.
HACKENSACK RIVER ON BERGEN COUNTY REMAINS ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL THE
AFTERNOON. ADDRESSING WITH AREAL FLOOD WARNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 OF AN INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS IN LOCATIONS RECEIVING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BREAKING SURF WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 10 FT TODAY...RESULTING IN A HIGH
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES. MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS WELL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLD -SHRA MOVING INTO SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WITH MORE NUMEROUS -SHRA BACK TOWARDS NE VA/E MD/DE AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL NY INTO WESTERN VA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LATEST RUC/HRRR SUGGEST WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES WARRANT CHANCE POPS
FOR SCT COVERAGE WITH ISOLD COVERAGE ELSEWHERE...SO HAVE UPDATED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. RUC STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE OVER INTERIOR ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE ELSEWHERE...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. 35-45 KT OF
BULK SHEAR WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-40 OVER THE INTERIOR
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.25-1.5 INCHES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH MIXING
DOWN FROM 875 HPA...AND BLENDING WITH NAM AND HRRR 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV...0Z MET...AND 0Z BIAS CORRECTED MOSGUIDE
GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...BUT FROM AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
FOR THE HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENT THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION OF THE AFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/TSRA
EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ONCE AGAIN.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING SETTLES INTO THE NE AND COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES TO S WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THEN GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
AREA.
FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX
ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE LOW...INTO LATE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 280-310. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE TEENS. A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AT KJFK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...DO
NOT THINK THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL GO THROUGH KLGA. LATE THIS
EVENING THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND THE LIGHT WIND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING
AND FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN VFR IS EXPECTED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE...SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS WILL AVERAGE
6-10 FT TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SCA ENDS OVER WESTERN OCEAN WATERS BY 6 AM SUNDAY
AND FOR THE REST OF THE OCEAN WATERS...BY 11 AM SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS.
SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN 2 COASTAL OCEAN ZONES
INTO SUNDAY...THEN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SWELL COULD RESULT IN SCA LEVEL SEAS RETURNING
TO THE 2 EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCT-ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY LESS THAN
1/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS RUNNING 1.25-1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER LEVELS IN SMALL
STREAMS...WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING THERE IF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.
HACKENSACK RIVER ON BERGEN COUNTY REMAINS ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL THE
AFTERNOON. ADDRESSING WITH AREAL FLOOD WARNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 OF AN INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS IN LOCATIONS RECEIVING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BREAKING SURF WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 10 FT TODAY...RESULTING IN A HIGH
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES. MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS WELL.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT/MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING A TOUGH TIME
DEVELOPING GIVEN A LITTLE CIN AROUND 850 TO 700 MB AND DRY AIR
ALOFT. RAP SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT NEAR 1.45 INCHES NEAR JAX INDICATING
THE DRYNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. STILL...WE EXPECT THAT
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF
ACTIVITY OVER NE FL WHERE SEA BREEZE MERGERS ARE MORE LIKELY. UPPER
LEVELS SHOW SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER PARTS OF NE FL WITH
THE REGION IN THE RRQ OF A 50-60 KT JET. LIKE WAS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE ANY
DOWNBURSTS...SO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR REST OF TODAY
AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
IN FROM THE GULF. WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE AN ONSET OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH
AN ACTIVE WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. STORMS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING FROM WEST/EAST
COAST SEABREEZE MERGER. GIVEN HIGH PWAT (2+ INCHES) AND INSTABILITY
(CAPES 2500-3000J) A FEW STORMS COULD GET STRONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. CLOUD
COVER AND AND HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE WILL HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER CHECK SUNDAY AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
STATES EARLY ON MON INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE FL PENINSULA BY
TUES...WHICH WILL KEEP MEAN LAYER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE
LOCALLY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON MON...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO ON MON...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. MOISTURE
LEVELS SLOWLY DECREASE ON TUES...BUT FORCING FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY
SINKING INTO OUR AREA SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. LESS MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON TUES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...WITH UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. ACTIVITY
ALONG A WEAK SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ON TUES IN NORTHEAST FL. LOWS WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL
TO THE 70-75 RANGE.
LONG-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS
STATES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL CHANGE OUR FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY TO
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY...WHICH WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO
OUR REGION. THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BE DISPLACED OVER
SOUTH FL...AND A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD FOCUS WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED POPS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. LESS CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 AT THE COAST ON WED AND THURS. TROUGHING
MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRI TO BRING A
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE FRONT WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SAT. HAVE DEPICTED SCATTERED
POPS REGION-WIDE FOR FRI...WITH SCATTERED POPS CONFINED MAINLY
FOR NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA FOR SAT. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPERATURES STILL AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT CUMULUS AROUND TAF SITES WITH JUST VERY ISOLD SHOWER
CELLS POPPING UP AT 1810Z. CLOSEST SCT CONVECTION TO THE TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME IS JUST OF MARION COUNTY MOVING NEWD WHICH WILL MISS TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD
AFFECT TAF SITES REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EVENING AS AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE COAST BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH FOR INSERTING TEMPO GROUPS. BY MIDNIGHT MOST CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATED BUT ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES S TO N OVER THE AREA.
&&
MARINE...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCEC CRITERIA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FROM ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 87 69 89 / 30 60 40 50
SSI 75 84 74 85 / 30 60 50 60
JAX 72 87 71 88 / 30 60 50 60
SGJ 73 85 74 86 / 30 60 50 60
GNV 71 87 71 89 / 30 60 50 50
OCF 71 88 72 90 / 40 60 50 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/PETERSON/STRUBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN WY AND WESTERN NE WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE AND KS TONIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL NE...SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KS. ONLY ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
KS AHEAD OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE RESULTING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED
SHOWERS HAVE KEPT THE AIRMASS MORE STABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 22Z AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND IN THE AREA OF STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING H5 TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE ONLY QUESTION IS TO THE DEGREE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF SFC BASED STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS AS IF THE THREAT FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SPC
EMC RAP MODEL SHOWS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS...SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PNHDL. IF
THERE IS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE ELEVATED SHOWERS...THEN PERHAPS
SBCAPES MAY INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT
ALONG THE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ATTM...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS MAY BE GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 MPH TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AS THE H5
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO IA AND EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH MO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR EAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
IA WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES MAY
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW LOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
GARGAN
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEEKEND`S PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND
DEVELOPING INTO A BROAD RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS BROAD RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE...MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
SET UP AS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OR SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS SKIMMING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE DEPENDENT UPON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DIP FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD THOUGH IS WITH THE RISING
TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MIXING FROM 800-850MB DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
UPWARDS OF 21C-28C. ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AIDS IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION WITH 25C-28C 850MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ALSO REMAINING QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN AT THE TAF SITES. SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 14 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 29 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS TO THE EAST
LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN...WITH
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM/FIRE WX SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A NORTHWEST FLOW JET STREAKED WAS IMPINGING ON WESTERN KANSAS
MID-AFTERNOON. PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WAS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR LOOP IN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK FROM
NEAR CHEYENNE, WY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA. THERE WAS
AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
INTRUSION. THIS PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF ACCAS AND ATTENDANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY MOIST WITH EARLY AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE MID-50S DEGF. THE FRONT AT 18Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR JOHNSON TO
SCOTT CITY TO HILL CITY...WITH A CONTINUED PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. AS
OF 18Z...THE ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE AT 18Z, 0-6KM
AGL BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH NEARLY 90-DEGREE
VEERING IN THE 850-500MB LAYER SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONVECTIVE MODE, DURATION, SEVERITY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE
"TONIGHT" PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. JUST ABOUT ALL SHORT-TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
20Z ALONG THE FRONT. THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL COHERENT CELLS
(PERHAPS SUPERCELLS) AS THE INITIAL MODE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CONCERN FOR HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE IN THE STRONGEST STORM STILL
LOOKS JUSTIFIED. ONCE AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IS GENERATED...THE
GROWTH UPSCALE WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION IN SEVERE THREAT FROM ONE
OF LARGE HAIL TO ONE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WHEN AND WHERE
EXACTLY THIS WILL TRANSITION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT BY 00Z THE
GENERAL THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE
QUASI-LINEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
PORTION OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA (ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183).
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY LAST A BIT LONGER
WITH SLIGHTLY A BIT MORE CAPPING TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM GROWING
UPSCALE TOO QUICKLY. NO CHANGE WAS REQUIRED IN THE POP/WX GRIDS
WITH 60-70 POPS STILL QUITE REASONABLE. STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE DDC FORECAST AREA (EAST AND SOUTH OF BARBER,
COMANCHE, PRATT COUNTIES) DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY:
DURING LATE NIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
VEER SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TO LOWER 60S ALONG INTERSTATE 70. 500 HPA RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 34
DEG C. HAVE USED ECMWF FOR TEMP GUIDANCE AND NUDGED TEMPS DOWN AS THIS
MODEL TYPICALLY OVERDOES A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE NEAR THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY:
A LEE INDUCED LOW/TROF WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THE 850 HPA WARM PLUME WILL ADVECT FARTHER EAST.
VALUES IN THE 32-36 DEG C RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SUPPORTS MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES (OBVIOUSLY MUCH HIGHER THAN 850 HPA)
IN THE LOW 100S. AGAIN, USED THE ECMWF AS A BASIS AND THE NUDGED DOWN
TO REDUCE THE IMPACTS FROM THE MODEL GENERATED SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG 591 DM RIDGE CONTINUES
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. LASTLY,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
WEAK FRONT MAKE TRAVERSE THE REGION WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT, SO NORTHERN ZONES MAY "COOL OFF" TO THE 90S. THURSDAYS
ONWARDS, THE 850 HPA WARM PLUME WILL REDEVELOP AND ADVECT EASTWARDS
ON FRIDAY. THIS SUPPORTS HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S. MINIMUMS
WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
VICINITY OF HYS, GCK, AND DDC TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING (ROUGHLY 22Z THROUGH 01Z TIME FRAME). BEHIND
THE FRONT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY...WITH A DECREASE IN WIND SPEED AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS A RESULT OF HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW DEWPOINTS, AND BREEZY/WINDY
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. RH`S COULD STILL BE AOB 15 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, BUT WINDS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 91 65 100 / 40 0 0 0
GCK 58 91 65 101 / 30 0 0 0
EHA 59 93 69 101 / 30 0 0 0
LBL 61 93 67 102 / 40 0 0 0
HYS 58 87 61 96 / 20 10 0 0
P28 63 89 67 97 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
120 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A NORTHWEST FLOW JET STREAKED WAS IMPINGING ON WESTERN KANSAS
MID-AFTERNOON. PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WAS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR LOOP IN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK FROM
NEAR CHEYENNE, WY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA. THERE WAS
AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY
INTRUSION. THIS PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF ACCAS AND ATTENDANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY MOIST WITH EARLY AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE MID-50S DEGF. THE FRONT AT 18Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR JOHNSON TO
SCOTT CITY TO HILL CITY...WITH A CONTINUED PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. AS
OF 18Z...THE ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE AT 18Z, 0-6KM
AGL BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH NEARLY 90-DEGREE
VEERING IN THE 850-500MB LAYER SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONVECTIVE MODE, DURATION, SEVERITY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE
"TONIGHT" PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. JUST ABOUT ALL SHORT-TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
20Z ALONG THE FRONT. THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL COHERENT CELLS
(PERHAPS SUPERCELLS) AS THE INITIAL MODE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CONCERN FOR HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE IN THE STRONGEST STORM STILL
LOOKS JUSTIFIED. ONCE AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IS GENERATED...THE
GROWTH UPSCALE WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION IN SEVERE THREAT FROM ONE
OF LARGE HAIL TO ONE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WHEN AND WHERE
EXACTLY THIS WILL TRANSITION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT BY 00Z THE
GENERAL THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE
QUASI-LINEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
PORTION OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA (ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183).
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY LAST A BIT LONGER
WITH SLIGHTLY A BIT MORE CAPPING TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM GROWING
UPSCALE TOO QUICKLY. NO CHANGE WAS REQUIRED IN THE POP/WX GRIDS
WITH 60-70 POPS STILL QUITE REASONABLE. STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE DDC FORECAST AREA (EAST AND SOUTH OF BARBER,
COMANCHE, PRATT COUNTIES) DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. VERY WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SPREAD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND H7
TEMPERATURES AOA +15C ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT EACH DAY, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ARE LIKELY ALMOST EVERY DAY.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WILL HELP
TO KEEP VEGETATION GREEN FOR A FEW DAYS, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DRY OUT PLANTS QUICKLY, AND EVEN
PLANTS THAT APPEAR TO BE GREEN MAY HAVE LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT
TO CARRY FIRE BY MID WEEK.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE FROM THE ARABIAN SEA TO THE
MARITIME CONTINENT, BUT THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A COHERENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION MAY DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND MARITIME CONTINENT BY 12 JUNE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. RELATIVE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM IS MORE
THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. MOUNTAIN TORQUE HAS
TRENDED MORE POSITIVE IN RECENT DAYS, AND THE RELATIVE ANGULAR
MOMENTUM TENDENCY HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY POSITIVE. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN PHASE 2-3 OF THE BERRY/WEICKMANN
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM, WHICH FAVORS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 40N AND 50N AND
130W-170W, AND THIS WARM POOL SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF WEAKENING. WITH
THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH, THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY WILL FAVOR RIDGING IN
THE PACIFIC WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY BE A COMMON FEATURE THIS SUMMER.
SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AS THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO WYOMING CLOSES OFF OVER IOWA. PRESSURES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE ROCKIES, AND THE FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE EML SPREADS INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE EML AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES WARM
AIR ADVECTION. POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE SEEMED APPROPRIATE
GIVEN THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY AND SHOULD
EXTEND NEAR A LINE FROM GOODLAND TO COLDWATER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY, AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY FORM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN
WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG EML WILL PRECLUDE ANY NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE TUESDAY, AND A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
DEEPEN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND H8
TEMPERATURES FROM 30C TO 35C WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RIPPLES EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST, A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES ON TUESDAY AND STILL
SHOULD REACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HEIGHTS
WILL RISE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS KANSAS
ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SO WARM THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY
WITH THE FRONT, BUT POST FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS MOISTURE
POOLS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EML WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
VICINITY OF HYS, GCK, AND DDC TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING (ROUGHLY 22Z THROUGH 01Z TIME FRAME). BEHIND
THE FRONT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY...WITH A DECREASE IN WIND SPEED AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 91 63 99 / 40 0 0 10
GCK 58 91 63 100 / 30 0 0 10
EHA 59 93 67 100 / 30 0 10 0
LBL 61 93 66 101 / 40 0 10 0
HYS 58 87 60 94 / 20 10 0 10
P28 63 89 66 95 / 70 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1257 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS NEAR THE NEB
STATE LINE. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AS NOTED ON
THE RAP AND NAM PROGS. INSTABILITY PER THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAINS LIMITED AND THIS SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE SHOWERS. THINK THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM WY INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
SEEN ON THE 11Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO WY. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY CAUSING CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN WY. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS GRADUALLY
BEEN DEEPENING ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER WY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
WITH THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING TO AROUND 60.
ADDITIONALLY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING A MODIFIED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THAT THERE WILL BE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSE TO 90 PERCENT. WITH
RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER...MODEL PROGS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER MODEST
ON CAPE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH STEEPER THAN THE MOIST
ADIABAT. THE CONCERN IS THE LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 BULK
SHEER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS. MODELS SHOW THE
COLLOCATION OF THE LOWEST LCL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL SHEER TO BE ALONG
HWY 36 AND TO THE NORTH. SO IF THERE WERE ANY DISCRETE STORMS...
THERE COULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. HOWEVER WITH STORMS
ONGOING UPSTREAM WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WE MAY BE MORE INCLINED TO
HAVE SOME SORT OF MCS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY MID AFTERNOON
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...THINK LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY
END UP BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE WAVE WAITING UNTIL IT REACHES THE MO RIVER TO BEGIN TO CLOSE. SO
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST FORCING TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND AND
EXPECTING MAINLY AN MCS FOR STORM MODE...THINK STORMS WILL MOVE OFF
INTO MO AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAVE POPS DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. SO LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
BEHIND THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING...MAY STILL
SEE SOME POST FRONTAL ELEVATED SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
OVER EAST CENTRAL KS. OTHERWISE THE STACKED CYCLONE EXITS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE ALLOWING SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA BY
THE AFTERNOON...00Z GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN TRYING TO LIFT THE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WITH SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR NOW AS BEST FORCING STAYS OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS.
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A SFC LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY EVENING. GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO
ECMWF. STILL A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY WE COULD SEE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOP AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS SURFACE TROF
LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
12Z H85 TEMPS NEAR 28C SUGGEST WE COULD SEE A TASTE OF SUMMER
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. OPTED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...HOWEVER INTERESTING TO
NOTE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS THE WARMEST SCENARIO WITH MIXING UP TO 850
MB TRANSLATING TO THE MIDDLE 90S ON TUES AND WED SO MAY NEED TO
WATCH TO SEE IF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS THIS WAY. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS GAINS CONTROL BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH CLEAR SKIES...AMPLE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HIGHS STEADY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN AT THE TAF SITES. SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 14 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 29 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS TO THE EAST
LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN...WITH
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY...DESPITE LARGE CAPPING ENVIRONMENT...DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE
HAS HELPED TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EXPECT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...REMAINING FAIRLY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...BEFORE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LOSE INTENSITY AND LIFT OUT OF
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
OBSERVATION. PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWED ISOLATED POPS BEGINNING TO LIFT
OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER...DECIDED TO INCLUDE
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 22Z BEFORE
LIFTING TO THE NE. THIS WILL COVER ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY POPPING UP AS WELL AS ANY FUTURE SHOWERS/TS THAT MAY INCUR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DESPITE THE CAPPING IN PLACE. ALSO...WITH
VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH...EXPECT WHAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE PULSY
IN NATURE AND FAIRLY SHORT LIVED.
OTHERWISE...ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE QUITE REASONABLE...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY CRUCIAL UPDATES /OUTSIDE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT/ UNTIL
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. GFS 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS FOR TODAY...20 PERCENT. RADAR MOSAIC STILL
SHOWING AN OCCASIONAL POP UP FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THOUGHTS ARE THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ONLY HELP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE LATER TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. TODAYS
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW STRONG WILL THE RESULTING DEVELOPING
CAP BE AND HOW SOON WILL IT BEGIN TO DAMPEN CONVECTION GENERATED BY
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT THROUGH 18Z TO
21Z. 06Z NAM/10Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION...BUT POSSIBLY SLOW GROWTH OF
CELLS. ALSO...NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT INHIBIT GROWTH ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDER. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS
ADVERTISES A STRONGER CAP...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWERS FROM
FIRING...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. HENSE THE
LOWER POP GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS...SLIGHT VERSUS CHANCE FROM THE NAM
GUIDANCE. THE HRRR SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AFTER ABOUT 15Z OR
16Z...BEING MORE NUMEROUS OR SCATTERED IN NATURE. BUT THE HRRR
USUALLY HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN OUR ORIGINAL SLIGHT POP...ISOLD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
AND ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM
AND RAP SOUNDINGS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS.
NO CHANGES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE ATTM...THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY MIGHT BE A
BETTER DESCRIPTION TO SKY COVER THAN THE CURRENT PC WORDING...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA
WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS ALONG
WITH ISOLD SHOWERS...OR PATCHY SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF FAVORABLE
DIURNAL HEATING CAN BE TAPPED INTO. HOWEVER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY
STRENGTHENING A MID LEVEL CAP AND SHUTTING DOWN CONVECTION FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN MOVES TO OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT SOME RAINFALL.
INCREASE POPS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL...FOLLOWING TRENDS IN
MODELS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR TEMPS JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MODELS BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 50H CLOSED LOW OVER THE WRN
OHIO VALLEY. THE SFC REFLECTION OF THIS CLOSED LOW HAS A CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IN NRN IND WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING MIDDLE KY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO EARLY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
QUICKLY WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON AND TUE IN THE UPPER 70S AND THEN
CLIMBING QUICKLY INTO THE MID 80S FOR WED/THU. WITH THE 50H RIDGE
WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE PLAINS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN
THE ERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF RAIN TO THE AREA ON THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO LATE FRI.
THE PCPN WILL ALSO DROP HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWR 80S FOR FRI. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD
CARRY MOST DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE PCPN FOR
KENTUCKY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S FOR
SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS IN MUCH OF THE
VALLEY REGIONS OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THAT POINT...ISOLATED SHOWERS
CURRENTLY ON RADAR HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO AFFECT TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS IS EXPECTED.
SMALL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS PRODUCING THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OFF NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTED CLEARING AS DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES THIS EVENING. FOG WILL THEN SET IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE MOST IMPACTS AT KSME WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LEANED A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTICALLY FOR
KJKL AND KLOZ...THOUGH SOME MVFR VIS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW...FOG WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING...BUT NEXT
SHORTWAVE IS POISED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
227 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY...DESPITE LARGE CAPPING ENVIRONMENT...DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE
HAS HELPED TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EXPECT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...REMAINING FAIRLY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...BEFORE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LOSE INTENSITY AND LIFT OUT OF
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THIS
OBSERVATION. PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWED ISOLATED POPS BEGINNING TO LIFT
OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER...DECIDED TO INCLUDE
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 22Z BEFORE
LIFTING TO THE NE. THIS WILL COVER ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY POPPING UP AS WELL AS ANY FUTURE SHOWERS/TS THAT MAY INCUR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DESPITE THE CAPPING IN PLACE. ALSO...WITH
VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH...EXPECT WHAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE PULSY
IN NATURE AND FAIRLY SHORT LIVED.
OTHERWISE...ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE QUITE REASONABLE...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY CRUCIAL UPDATES /OUTSIDE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT/ UNTIL
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. GFS 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS FOR TODAY...20 PERCENT. RADAR MOSAIC STILL
SHOWING AN OCCASIONAL POP UP FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THOUGHTS ARE THAT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ONLY HELP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE LATER TODAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. TODAYS
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW STRONG WILL THE RESULTING DEVELOPING
CAP BE AND HOW SOON WILL IT BEGIN TO DAMPEN CONVECTION GENERATED BY
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT THROUGH 18Z TO
21Z. 06Z NAM/10Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION...BUT POSSIBLY SLOW GROWTH OF
CELLS. ALSO...NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT INHIBIT GROWTH ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDER. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS
ADVERTISES A STRONGER CAP...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWERS FROM
FIRING...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. HENSE THE
LOWER POP GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS...SLIGHT VERSUS CHANCE FROM THE NAM
GUIDANCE. THE HRRR SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AFTER ABOUT 15Z OR
16Z...BEING MORE NUMEROUS OR SCATTERED IN NATURE. BUT THE HRRR
USUALLY HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN OUR ORIGINAL SLIGHT POP...ISOLD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
AND ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM
AND RAP SOUNDINGS. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS.
NO CHANGES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE ATTM...THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY MIGHT BE A
BETTER DESCRIPTION TO SKY COVER THAN THE CURRENT PC WORDING...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA
WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...BAND OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS ALONG
WITH ISOLD SHOWERS...OR PATCHY SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF FAVORABLE
DIURNAL HEATING CAN BE TAPPED INTO. HOWEVER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY
STRENGTHENING A MID LEVEL CAP AND SHUTTING DOWN CONVECTION FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN MOVES TO OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT SOME RAINFALL.
INCREASE POPS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL...FOLLOWING TRENDS IN
MODELS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR TEMPS JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPONSOR A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SCOOP UP SOME HIGH PWAT AIR AND SHOVE IT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTION SO WILL NOT
GO HOG WILD WITH RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...KEEPING THEM BELOW
CATEGORICAL RANGES. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF FORCING
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET
ALL HOLD THAT OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. THE GFS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD TEND TO BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE NOT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES TO OUR NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ANY SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN AGAIN BE ADVERTISED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. A STOUT UPPER
RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG THAT DEVELOPS IN MUCH OF THE
VALLEY REGIONS OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THAT POINT...ISOLATED SHOWERS
CURRENTLY ON RADAR HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO AFFECT TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS IS EXPECTED.
SMALL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS PRODUCING THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OFF NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTED CLEARING AS DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES THIS EVENING. FOG WILL THEN SET IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE MOST IMPACTS AT KSME WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LEANED A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTICALLY FOR
KJKL AND KLOZ...THOUGH SOME MVFR VIS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW...FOG WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING...BUT NEXT
SHORTWAVE IS POISED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
706 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NRN LAKE MI INTO NRN LWR MI. AREA OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI TODAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR W AND CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTN (LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SBCAPE OF 100-200J/KG). TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS DIGGING
INTO THE WRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A W COAST RIDGE. THIS TROF WILL
BRING THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUN.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLD SHRA OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...FCST AREA
TONIGHT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO THE E
OF THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING THRU THE PLAINS. WITH RIDGE PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A TREND TO
MCLEAR SKIES. LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES
GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEGREE TO WHICH JET STREAK IS CAUSING SHORTWAVE TO DIG
INTO THE WRN PLAINS CURRENTLY...MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN WILL LIKELY END UP SW OF HERE SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
EASTERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY TO HAVE A
MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE IN THE WEATHER HERE. MODELS THAT WERE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN RECENT RUNS WITH PCPN DRIVING INTO UPPER MI SUN HAVE
ALL BACKED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN WHICH SUPPORTS THE ABOVE
THINKING. WHILE ONE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE OVER IA SUN...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NE MN...SPREADING
AN ARC OF WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WRN UPPER MI.
WITH ZONE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THAT AREA AS WELL...THIS WAVE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI SUN AFTN. SO...
PLAN FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE IS TO CUT BACK ON PCPN ADVANCEMENT INTO
UPPER MI SUN. WILL KEEP ROUGHLY THE E HALF DRY THRU THE AFTN WITH
HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE W TRENDING TO LIKELY FAR W TOWARD KIWD. WITH
LESS AND LATER PCPN ARRIVAL...BUMPED TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD. IN
THE INTERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. THICKER
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FAR W.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A CONTINUED SLOW MOVING AND MESSY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK BLOCKING DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND
CANADA.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...IT SEEMS THE MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
CHANGING A DECENT AMOUNT FROM DAY TO DAY...WITH THE LAST SUITE
REALLY CUTTING BACK PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE EAST HALF. HAVE CONTINUED
TO USE OF THE GFS AS THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH IT OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE GENERAL PATTERN HAS A WEAK REX
BLOCK...WITH A SHORTWAVE/NEARLY CLOSED LOW TACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO OVER HUDSON BAY. ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SPLIT TO BECOME A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING TROUGH AND AN EASTWARD MOVING
CLOSED LOW. THE LOW WILL TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE CWA TO PROVIDE
ANY GOOD SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL CLIP THE WESTERN CWA WITH DECENT H7 FGEN AND MID-LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO MISS OUT ONCE AGAIN ON
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN. HAVE DROPPED PRECIP WORDING COMPLETELY FROM THE
FAR EAST...AND CUT BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. ONLY
CHANCE OF SEEING A VERY ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WOULD BE NEAR
MENOMINEE...SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER PREVIOUSLY ALONG
THE WI BORDER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
AN INCOMING UPPER JET WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWA. AFTER A WEAK AND ELONGATED UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSH EAST MONDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING ALOFT FOR
THE WEST. WITH NO SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND RECENT RAINFALL...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN AND PATCHY
FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICK THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEPART...SO DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO
DETAILED IN SPECIFIC AREAS. FOR NOW...ADDED WORDING OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE CLEARING LOOKS TO
BE MORE LIKELY. ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO A MORE NW WIND
DIRECTION FOR THE WEST HALF...AND EVENTUALLY THE EAST HALF. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE FORMATION ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL FOR LOCATIONS PRONE TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW.
TUESDAY...WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT ON SECOND GLANCE...A 100KT UPPER JET STREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST OVER UPPER MI SHOULD GIVE SOME SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE LEFT
EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGIONS. EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EXTRA LIFT
UNDER THE JET WILL TAP INTO THE LITTLE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AT THE SFC TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SOME MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A QUICK-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE PICKED UP BY AN ELONGATED
TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. WHILE A BOUT OF MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASSES OVER
UPPER MI ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE LAYER. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO ALL BUT SOME MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WI BORDER SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF THE CWA.
ONCE AGAIN...ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE
TO GENERATE EVEN MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS GIVEN A DEEP DRY LAYER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRY TO
RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH THIS TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. FOR NOW...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD
EXIST TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS A DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...GENERALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. INCLUDED SOME VCSH AT
KIWD AS THE FAR WRN CWA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. THEN...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING E TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN NIGHT
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20KT SUN INTO EARLY MON. COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS UP TO 25KT OVER FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BTWN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND MN N SHORE SUN AFTN/EVENING.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS E...ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE THRU THU...RESULTING IN WINDS UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
407 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NRN LAKE MI INTO NRN LWR MI. AREA OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI TODAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR W AND CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTN (LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SBCAPE OF 100-200J/KG). TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS DIGGING
INTO THE WRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A W COAST RIDGE. THIS TROF WILL
BRING THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUN.
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLD SHRA OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE...FCST AREA
TONIGHT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO THE E
OF THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING THRU THE PLAINS. WITH RIDGE PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A TREND TO
MCLEAR SKIES. LOWEST MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES
GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEGREE TO WHICH JET STREAK IS CAUSING SHORTWAVE TO DIG
INTO THE WRN PLAINS CURRENTLY...MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN WILL LIKELY END UP SW OF HERE SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
EASTERLY FLOW EMANATING FROM SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY TO HAVE A
MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE IN THE WEATHER HERE. MODELS THAT WERE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN RECENT RUNS WITH PCPN DRIVING INTO UPPER MI SUN HAVE
ALL BACKED OFF WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN WHICH SUPPORTS THE ABOVE
THINKING. WHILE ONE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE OVER IA SUN...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NE MN...SPREADING
AN ARC OF WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WRN UPPER MI.
WITH ZONE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THAT AREA AS WELL...THIS WAVE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI SUN AFTN. SO...
PLAN FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE IS TO CUT BACK ON PCPN ADVANCEMENT INTO
UPPER MI SUN. WILL KEEP ROUGHLY THE E HALF DRY THRU THE AFTN WITH
HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE W TRENDING TO LIKELY FAR W TOWARD KIWD. WITH
LESS AND LATER PCPN ARRIVAL...BUMPED TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD. IN
THE INTERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. THICKER
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FAR W.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A CONTINUED SLOW MOVING AND MESSY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK BLOCKING DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND
CANADA.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...IT SEEMS THE MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
CHANGING A DECENT AMOUNT FROM DAY TO DAY...WITH THE LAST SUITE
REALLY CUTTING BACK PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE EAST HALF. HAVE CONTINUED
TO USE OF THE GFS AS THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH IT OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE GENERAL PATTERN HAS A WEAK REX
BLOCK...WITH A SHORTWAVE/NEARLY CLOSED LOW TACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO OVER HUDSON BAY. ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SPLIT TO BECOME A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING TROUGH AND AN EASTWARD MOVING
CLOSED LOW. THE LOW WILL TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE CWA TO PROVIDE
ANY GOOD SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL CLIP THE WESTERN CWA WITH DECENT H7 FGEN AND MID-LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THE EAST HALF LOOKS TO MISS OUT ONCE AGAIN ON
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN. HAVE DROPPED PRECIP WORDING COMPLETELY FROM THE
FAR EAST...AND CUT BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. ONLY
CHANCE OF SEEING A VERY ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WOULD BE NEAR
MENOMINEE...SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER PREVIOUSLY ALONG
THE WI BORDER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
AN INCOMING UPPER JET WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWA. AFTER A WEAK AND ELONGATED UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSH EAST MONDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING ALOFT FOR
THE WEST. WITH NO SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND RECENT RAINFALL...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN AND PATCHY
FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICK THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEPART...SO DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO
DETAILED IN SPECIFIC AREAS. FOR NOW...ADDED WORDING OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE CLEARING LOOKS TO
BE MORE LIKELY. ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO A MORE NW WIND
DIRECTION FOR THE WEST HALF...AND EVENTUALLY THE EAST HALF. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE FORMATION ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL FOR LOCATIONS PRONE TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW.
TUESDAY...WAS INITIALLY GOING TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT ON SECOND GLANCE...A 100KT UPPER JET STREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST OVER UPPER MI SHOULD GIVE SOME SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE LEFT
EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGIONS. EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EXTRA LIFT
UNDER THE JET WILL TAP INTO THE LITTLE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AT THE SFC TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SOME MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A QUICK-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE PICKED UP BY AN ELONGATED
TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. WHILE A BOUT OF MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASSES OVER
UPPER MI ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE LAYER. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO ALL BUT SOME MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WI BORDER SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF THE CWA.
ONCE AGAIN...ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE
TO GENERATE EVEN MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS GIVEN A DEEP DRY LAYER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRY TO
RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH THIS TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. FOR NOW...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD
EXIST TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A FEW -SHRA IN THE VCNTY AT KIWD INTO THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. EVEN AT KSAW...MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A SHRA OR TWO IN THE VCNTY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. THEN...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING E TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN NIGHT
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20KT SUN INTO EARLY MON. COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS UP TO 25KT OVER FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BTWN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND MN N SHORE SUN AFTN/EVENING.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS E...ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE THRU THU...RESULTING IN WINDS UNDER 15KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE
GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG ALONG THE W COAST. THERE IS ALSO A
RATHER WEAK UPR RDG OVER NW ONTARIO...WITH A 1015MB SFC HI CENTERED
OVER WRN LK SUP. A SHRTWV IS DRIFTING SEWD THRU NCENTRAL MN ON THE
SRN FLANK OF THIS RDG. THE INTERACTION BTWN THE DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC AND BAND OF H85 FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF 60KT H3 JET
MAX SUPPORTING THE SHRTWV AND MID LVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
/KINX 29/ APPEARS TO BE GENERATING SOME ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE FAR WRN
CWA PER RADAR RETURNS IN THAT AREA. BUT DRYNESS OF LLVLS SHOWN ON
THE LOCAL 00Z RAOBS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME OF THIS PCPN MAY NOT BE
REACHING THE GROUND. EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS...THE REST OF THE CWA
TO THE NE IS GENERALLY MOCLR WITH THE DRIER 00Z APX RAOB /KINX 16/
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE W...
A RATHER POTENT SHRTWV IS DIGGING SEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IN THE
NW FLOW ALF BTWN THE W COAST RDG AND GREAT LKS TROF.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV DRIFTING ESEWD THRU NRN MN.
TODAY...SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W EARLY THIS
MRNG IS PROGGED TO DRIFT E ACRS NRN WI THIS MRNG AND THEN TO THE E
THRU NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO DNVA/HGT RISES OVER UPR MI
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THIS CHAIN OF EVENTS WOULD INDICATE THE -SHRA
NOW OVER THE W WL ALSO DRIFT TO THE E WITH THE SUPPORTING DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WITH DRYING OVER THE W TAKING HOLD IN ITS WAKE...BULK OF
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE ERN CWA WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE DAY
WITH MORE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON LK BREEZE BNDRYS THAT FORM IN THE WEAK LLVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FLAT HI PRES. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR IWD THIS
AFTN FOR T/TD OF 70/44 YIELDS SBCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG WITH KINX OF
27...SO WL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS. NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS
INDICATE THE LLVLS OVER THE E WL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN...SO
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. THS SDNGS ALSO SHOW SOME MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE W LATER IN THE AFTN WITH STRENGTHENING MID LVL INVRN
UNDER THE DNVA...SO ANY -SHRA THERE SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER.
MIXING TO H8-85 ON FCST SDNGS AND H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 9C SUPPORT HI
TEMPS REACHING 70 TO 75 AWAY FM LK MODERATION.
TONIGHT...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS TO
THE E OF STRONG SHRTWV NOW IN THE NRN ROCKIES THAT IS FCST TO REACH
FAR SW MN BY 12Z SUN. WITH THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND WANING
DAYTIME HEATING...ANY ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
EARLY IN THE EVNG AND GIVE WAY TO MOCLR SKIES. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AS PRES GRADIENT/SE GRADIENT FLOW IS FCST
TO SHARPEN LATE OVER THE W...WHERE SOME HI CLDS MAY ALSO ARRIVE LATE
TO THE NE OF SHRTWV MOVING INTO MN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LARGER SCALE PATTERN PROGRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO
REMAIN ON THE SLOWER SIDE AS LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
STAY SOMEWHAT BLOCKY. TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE
LONG TERM BECOMES RE-INFORCED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SLIDES ACROSS CNTRL CONUS TO NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEN AS THIS LEADING TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE
WEEK...RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. MAIN RESULT WOULD
BE TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
PRIMARY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
FOCUSING IN ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS
THERE MAY BE CUTOFF FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER EASTERN CWA.
ECMWF SHOWED THIS ON FRIDAY AND LATEST RUNS OF GFS/GEM-NH/UKMET PICK
UP ON THIS AS WELL. 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AS IT IS
FARTHER EAST AND CLOSED OFF WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY 00Z MONDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO EASTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. ECMWF/GFS
NOW REPRESENTS MIDDLE GROUND WITH EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP AS NAM IS
EASTERN OUTLIER WHILE GEM-NH AND UKMET WOULD BE WESTERN OUTLIERS AS
THEY SHOW LITTLE QPF EVEN INTO CNTRL CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. ECMWF/GFS
INDICATE SWATH OF H85-H7/H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO WEST HALF
OF CWA BY 00Z MONDAY WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED MOSTLY INTO
WESTERN CWA ON SSE FLOW ARCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PATTERN
JUST DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH RAIN MAKING IT INTO EASTERN CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPLITS
OVER TIME WITH ONE PIECE OF TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OTHER/STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DRIVING FROM CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. KEPT GENERAL THEME
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WAS MORE STUBBORN TO BRING HIGHER POPS
INTO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SHRA OVER
EAST ON SUNDAY NUDGED TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S THERE BUT KEPT READINGS
OVER FAR SW/WEST IN LOWER 60S DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LIKELY POPS OVER WEST AND CENTRAL STILL SEEM ON TRACK THOUGH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS. SI/S LESS THAN 0C
PEGGING TSRA OVER DAKOTAS CURRENTLY. SI/S MAINLY STAY ABOVE 0C INTO
UPR MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOLLOWING SREF 3HR PROBS FOR TSRA
DID KEEP SMALL MENTION IN FAR SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECT DECAYING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AS SPLITTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DAMPEN ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER CWA. SOME
INDICATION THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE OR AT LEAST THE TAIL OF WAVE ON
NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND WEAK SFC TROUGH CROSSING AREA MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING SHRA MONDAY AFTN MAINLY WEST HALF INTERIOR. HEADED THAT
WAY FOR POPS...LINGERING SMALL CHANCES OVR MAINLY CNTRL CWA MONDAY
EVENING. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH MID-UPR
60S WHICH IS A BIT BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHER THAN ISOLD
SHRA TUESDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVE AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
THROUGH IN A FLATTER FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER LATER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL ALLOW AREAS JUST
INLAND FROM LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE TO WARM INTO THE LOW EVEN
MID 70S ON TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +10C.
AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVR CNTRL
CONUS...BULGE OF WARM AIR WITH H85 TEMPS OVER +20C SPREADS ACROSS
PLAINS TOWARD MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. SFC WARM FRONT
STAYS TO SOUTH OF UPR LAKES AND H85 WARM FRONT FORECAST TO STAY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. BASED ON H85 JET AND
EDGE OF 1-6KM MUCAPE ALONG WITH H85-H3 THICKNESSES...SEEMS THAT
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN TO SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. MIGHT
BE CLOSE CALL THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN DURING THE
DAY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH H85 WARM FRONT A BIT FARTHER NORTH AS
MODELS WERE SHOWING EARLIER. JUST IN CASE MODELS JOG BACK NORTH
AGAIN KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE SOUTH CWA. ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPS IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER BUT INLAND AREAS WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE 70S AS LONG AS WARM FRONT SHRA/TSRA DO NOT COME TOO
FAR NORTH.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ON THROUGH BY 12Z THURSDAY RESULTING IN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER WAVE SLIPS IN
LATE IN THE DAY BUT WILL REALLY BE LACKING MOISTURE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A POP-UP SHRA OVER INTERIOR...BUT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLD IF IT OCCURS
AT ALL. NORTHERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN
SIMILAR TEMP PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY WITH 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND SOLID
MID 70S INLAND. SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY LEADING TO
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CLOSE THE WEEK. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY STAYS OVR THE PLAINS SO JUST HAVE
CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BETTER
CHANCE OF WARMING INTO THE MID-UPR 70S EVEN OVER NORTH CWA NEAR LK
SUPERIOR. IF THIS OCCURS...WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME OF SEEING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS SINCE THE FEW SUMMER LIKE DAYS WE HAD TO CLOSE THE
MONTH OF MAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A FEW -SHRA IN THE VCNTY AT KIWD INTO THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. EVEN AT KSAW...MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A SHRA OR TWO IN THE VCNTY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH OVERWATER
STABILITY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER IN THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN E-SE WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20 KTS ON SUN INTO MON. AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS SHOULD FALL
BELOW 20 KTS LATER ON MON THRU WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
347 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MN HOLDS...AND IF IT CONTINUES
THE TREND OF DRIER MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM...KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IA/MN THRU 6Z. COMPLEX OF
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACROSS FAR SW MN HAS ERODED SOME OF THE DRIER AIR
THRU THE EARLY AFTN TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HOLD ONTO LIKELY FOR
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL AFT 3Z/09...AND MOST
LIKELY AFT 6-9Z BASED ON THE LATEST RAP TRENDS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NE OF MPX
FA...THE SFC LOW HAS WEAKENED COMPARED TO SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
AGO...AND IS MORE IN LINE OF THE EC THAT HAD THE SFC/UPPER LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA A FEW DAYS AGO ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND TSRA CHC/S
TO A MINIMUM...OR UNTIL AFT 18Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR FAR EASTERN MN/WC WI. DUE TO THE SLOWER AND
WEAKER SOLUTION OF THIS WX SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION AMTS MAY BE
LOWER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
UPPER LOW AFFECTING MN/WI TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND STILL BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH TROUGH
AXIS STILL ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MONDAY MORNING. 12Z DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM40...GEM AND ECMWF...KEEP A VERY WEAK
GRADIENT ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT THE WESTERNMOST
COUNTIES. 15Z SREF ALSO SUGGESTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. WITH RAIN FOR
MUCH OF SUNDAY AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING...THINK THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE WITH LITTLE REASON FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR ON
MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE
HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY LOTS OF CU
DEVELOPMENT...WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER NOT REALLY HAPPENING
UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON MONDAY.
ONCE THE LOW DRIFTS BY...SYSTEMS BEGIN ARRIVING AT A FASTER PACE.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN LATER ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER.
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LONGEST PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HAVE LOWER 50S
FOR NOW BUT COULD IMAGINE SEEING SOME UPPER 40S. THERE IS SOME HINT
A WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS MN TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
RIDGE REACHING THE DAKOTAS. BUT THIS SHOULD JUST PRODUCE SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CLOUDS...WILL STICK WITH 50S FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR UPPER RIDGE TO BE OVER WESTERN MN IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT IT IS RATHER FLAT. A PAIR OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRST ONE
WILL DAMPEN BUT THE SECOND ONE ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH. BUT MN/WI SHOULD STILL BE IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS AS MAIN LOW TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
INDIANA. DOES NOT REALLY LOOK LIKE A SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT FOR
OUR AREA.
TROUGH DEPARTS WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES. ECMWF...GEM AND GFS GENERALLY BRING IT OVER MN/WI
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING
FLATTENED AS LEAD SHORT WAVE FROM NEXT DEEP WESTERN TROUGH MOVES IN.
THUS WILL HAVE MORE POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR SW WHERE -SHRA HAD
DEVELOPED NEAR CANBY/GRANITE FALLS/REDWOOD FALLS AND WINDOM PRIOR
TO 17Z. REGIONAL RADAR HAS NOTED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW IOWA. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHRA
AFT 6Z. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUED THE DRIER AIR ABV 85H
IN CENTRAL/EC MN UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...SO HAVE TRENDED WITH VFR
CONDS UNTIL AFT 3Z...WILL THE EXCEPTION OF RWF. ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS CONDS WILL DETERIORATE WITH IFR OR LIFR
LIKELY AFT 9Z-15Z...WITH CIGS SLOWLY RISING SUNDAY AFTN...BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR. WINDS WILL HOLD THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD
FROM THE E/SE AND INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. LLWS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND THE DIRECTIONAL TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1KM.
KMSP...
HELD OFF ON MVFR CIGS UNTIL AFT 6Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR OR
POSSIBLY LIFR AFT 9Z AS SHRA/+SHRA DEVELOP. TSRA CHC/S REMAIN TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS...BUT THE BEST CHC OF TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT 9Z
WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTN IF ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE...THEN
BECOME MORE E/ESE TONIGHT AND INCREASING...AFT 15Z... SFC LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DECREASE SOME BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NE/N BY SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN EVE...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH OCNL SHRA DIMINISHING. WND BCMG N 5 KT.
MON...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...VFR BY AFTN. WND NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND LGT/VAR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
210 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL MN HOLDS...AND CONTINUES THE
DRIER MODEL RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IA/MN THRU 6Z. COMPLEX OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
ACROSS FAR SW MN HAS ERODED SOME OF THE DRIER AIR THRU THE EARLY
AFTN TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HOLD ONTO LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL AFT 3Z/09...AND MOST LIKELY
AFT 6-9Z BASED ON THE LATEST RAP TRENDS. IN ADDITION TO THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NE OF MPX FA...THE SFC
LOW HAS WEAKENED COMPARED TO SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AGO...AND MORE IN
LINE OF EC THAT HAD THE SFC/UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA A FEW
DAYS AGO ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND TSRA CHC/S TO A MINIMAL...OR
UNTIL AFT 18Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
FOR FAR EASTERN MN/WC WI. DUE TO THE SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION OF
THIS WX SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION AMTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WILL BE JUST ABOUT OCCLUDED
BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM NRN IL NWD TO CENTRAL WI
AND WWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS ARC WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT A COLD POCKET OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL FACILITATE
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE VORT MAX
OVERHEAD WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ALL DAY. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY LOCALLY. GIVEN THE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF GREATER
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET OFF ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS...AND MAY LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO THAT TRANSPIRED WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ALL
DAY RAINS. MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 10 KTS COULD ALSO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE LOW SINKING SOUTHEAST SHOULD END THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING
IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S.
RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THICKNESSES OFF
THE GFS/EURO RISE TOWARD 580 DAM OVER SWRN MN...NORMALLY
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...925 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND +20C SO HIGHS SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE
LOWER 80S. THE RELATIVELY COOL 925 MB TEMPS AND WARM THICKNESSES
ALSO INDICATE STRONG CAPPING...THUS A DRY FORECAST.
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE BUILDING PLAINS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES...BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST RISK AREA WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR SW WHERE -SHRA HAD
DEVELOPED NEAR CANBY/GRANITE FALLS/REDWOOD FALLS AND WINDOM PRIOR
TO 17Z. REGIONAL RADAR HAS NOTED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW IOWA. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHRA
AFT 6Z. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUED THE DRIER AIR ABV 85H
IN CENTRAL/EC MN UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...SO HAVE TRENDED WITH VFR
CONDS UNTIL AFT 3Z...WILL THE EXCEPTION OF RWF. ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS CONDS WILL DETERIORATE WITH IFR OR LIFR
LIKELY AFT 9Z-15Z...WITH CIGS SLOWLY RISING SUNDAY AFTN...BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR. WINDS WILL HOLD THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD
FROM THE E/SE AND INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. LLWS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND THE DIRECTIONAL TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1KM.
KMSP...
HELD OFF ON MVFR CIGS UNTIL AFT 6Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR OR
POSSIBLY LIFR AFT 9Z AS SHRA/+SHRA DEVELOP. TSRA CHC/S REMAIN TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS...BUT THE BEST CHC OF TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT 9Z
WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTN IF ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE...THEN
BECOME MORE E/ESE TONIGHT AND INCREASING...AFT 15Z... SFC LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DECREASE SOME BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NE/N BY SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN EVE...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH OCNL SHRA DIMINISHING. WND BCMG N 5 KT.
MON...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...VFR BY AFTN. WND NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND LGT/VAR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LONG RANGE 0.5 REFLECTIVITY INDICATING FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SODAK. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING INTO EASTERN SODAK BY
SUN/00Z TIME FRAME. USED HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAINLY NON-TSTORM
RAIN SHIELD OVER WESTERN THIRD OF CWA FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING
HOURS. INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER INITIATION
ACROSS THIS REGION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS40 AND EUROPEAN
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN MOVEMENT OF EVENTUAL STACKED 50H AND SURFACE
SYSTEM BY SUN/12Z. DIFFERENCE BEING A SLIGHT DIP SOUTH OVER NW IA
WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SFC ELEMENT VS GFS40`S SLIGHTLY DEEPER
SOLUTION OVER SW MN. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LARGE
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEST OF A
LINE FROM KAXN TO FAIRMONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. USED GFS40 ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS TO PROG TIMING AND POSITION
OF CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FORWARD PROGRESSION OF
CONVECTION OVER REMAINDER OF FA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
REDWOOD FALLS TO RED WING. THIS WAS BASED ON BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IF
THIS PANS OUT...COULD EASILY SEE A SOLID INCH OF MOISTURE OVER
THIS AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA WHICH COULD INCUR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THEN CURRENTLY PROGGED IS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. TRIMMED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT
FOR BOTH INCREASING THICKNESS OF CLOUD DECK...AND DEVELOPING
MOISTURE PATTERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WILL BE JUST ABOUT OCCLUDED
BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM NRN IL NWD TO CENTRAL WI
AND WWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS ARC WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT A COLD POCKET OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL FACILITATE
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE VORT MAX
OVERHEAD WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ALL DAY. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY LOCALLY. GIVEN THE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF GREATER
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET OFF ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS...AND MAY LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO THAT TRANSPIRED WEDNESDAY.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ALL
DAY RAINS. MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 10 KTS COULD ALSO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE LOW SINKING SOUTHEAST SHOULD END THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING
IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S.
RIDGING REALLY BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THICKNESSES OFF
THE GFS/EURO RISE TOWARD 580 DAM OVER SWRN MN...NORMALLY
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...925 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND +20C SO HIGHS SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE
LOWER 80S. THE RELATIVELY COOL 925 MB TEMPS AND WARM THICKNESSES
ALSO INDICATE STRONG CAPPING...THUS A DRY FORECAST.
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE BUILDING PLAINS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL FEATURES...BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST RISK AREA WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION IN THE FAR SW WHERE -SHRA HAD
DEVELOPED NEAR CANBY/GRANITE FALLS/REDWOOD FALLS AND WINDOM PRIOR
TO 17Z. REGIONAL RADAR HAS NOTED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BAND OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS NW IOWA. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHRA
AFT 6Z. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUED THE DRIER AIR ABV 85H
IN CENTRAL/EC MN UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...SO HAVE TRENDED WITH VFR
CONDS UNTIL AFT 3Z...WILL THE EXCEPTION OF RWF. ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS CONDS WILL DETERIORATE WITH IFR OR LIFR
LIKELY AFT 9Z-15Z...WITH CIGS SLOWLY RISING SUNDAY AFTN...BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR. WINDS WILL HOLD THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD
FROM THE E/SE AND INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. LLWS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND THE DIRECTIONAL TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1KM.
KMSP...
HELD OFF ON MVFR CIGS UNTIL AFT 6Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR OR
POSSIBLY LIFR AFT 9Z AS SHRA/+SHRA DEVELOP. TSRA CHC/S REMAIN TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS...BUT THE BEST CHC OF TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT 9Z
WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTN IF ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE...THEN
BECOME MORE E/ESE TONIGHT AND INCREASING...AFT 15Z... SFC LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DECREASE SOME BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NE/N BY SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN EVE...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH OCNL SHRA DIMINISHING. WND BCMG N 5 KT.
MON...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...VFR BY AFTN. WND NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND LGT/VAR.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WE SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR TSRA.
HAVE INCLUDED THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
KERN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
DROPPING SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MORNING ACTIVITY. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSIAC SHOWS THE ACTIVITY BECOMING MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
THE WEST WHICH LEADS TO SOME POSSIBILTY OF BREAKING OUT OF THE
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF
500MB HEIGHT FALLS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING WHICH WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROVIDING AREA FOR BROAD ASCENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE BIG CONDITION FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS CURRENT CLOUD COVER LIMITING SFC
HEATING. IF WE ARE ABLE TO BREAK OUT...WE DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS THE LATEST RAP/HRRR INDICATE. LOW LEVEL MOSIT ADVECTION AND AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING MAY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN.
KERN
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB
A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 125 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND
50 METERS AT 500 MB WERE NOTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN DOWN INTO MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS
TAKING PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB...ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS
INITIALIZED 850 MB MOISTURE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN REALITY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BELIEVE THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW GENERALLY 25-35
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND BL CAPE VALUES UP TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES...
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE INCREASING. SO STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING PCPN. 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED
850 MB DEWPOINTS REACHING 10-13 DEGREES C BY EVENING. NAM WAS
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...BUT BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY EVENING. DID NOT GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY
AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID MENTION HEAVY RAIN. DAY SHIFT CAN LOOK AT
THAT MORE LATER.
CURRENT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OUR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP EWD/SEWD
THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HEATING AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER OR MID 70S. FARTHER SOUTH...LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS COULD REACH AROUND 80.
STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY
DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS AND QPF A LITTLE FOR AREAS
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OMAHA. PCPN IS NOT LIKELY TO LINGER MUCH PAST
7 PM...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY INTO FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LEFT BOTH DAY
PERIODS DRY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. BEST BET FOR STORMS IN
THAT PERIOD WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 80S AND
LOWER 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MILLER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AROUND THE VCT AREA WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY FOR EASTERN TAF SITES. MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MODERATE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE
AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS KALI AND KCRP THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL SITES LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO TURN TO EAST
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO A MODERATE FLOW IN EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AT END OF THE PERIOD CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN INCREASING
AND SITES WILL REACH MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH A WEAK MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH RESIDING OVER SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION /PWAT VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES/ EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED TO THE SOUTH SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. BOTH THE TEXAS TECH AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVING
INLAND...THOUGH HRRR KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION
OFFSHORE AND EARLIER IN THE MORNING. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MARINE AREAS AND COASTAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES. AS BOUNDARY MOVES TO
THE NORTH THIS MORNING WINDS WILL GENERALLY RETURN TO A WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TAIL END OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ON MONDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OUT OF
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BEHIND MONDAY OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND COASTAL BEND ALONG WITH POOL OF HIGHER MOISTURE. COULD BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND BENEATH IT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS INTO A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALSO WORKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HIGH ENOUGH VALUES AND
MARGINAL MID LEVELS TEMPS ACROSS THE CRP CWA TO SUPPORT 10-20 POPS
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...OVER THE COASTAL BEND DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SHIFTING INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL OUT WEST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 95 79 96 78 / 10 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 75 91 75 92 76 / 10 20 10 20 10
LAREDO 78 98 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 75 96 76 96 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 80 91 78 / 10 20 10 20 10
COTULLA 76 99 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 95 76 95 76 / 10 20 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 90 79 90 79 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
REALLY TOUGH DECISION ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THINK WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AND CONVECTION
FORMING TO THE SW OF MOST TERMINALS...WILL GO AHEAD WITH VCTS
WORDING FOR TAFS KIAH SOUTHWARD. WILL KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF
KCXO/KUTS/KCLL TAFS. GFS SEEMS TO BE ONLY MODEL HANDLING CURRENT
CONVECTION WELL WITH 15Z HRRR NOT TOO BAD. GET A 20KT LLJ BACK
TONIGHT SO MAY SEE SOME LOW STRATOCU DECK FORM BUT WILL KEEP VFR
CIGS FOR NOW. TOMORROW MORNING LOOKING MORE INTERESTING AS GFS
HINTS AT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
OK/TX PANHANDLE MAY BE INITIATING CONVECTION LATE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. WENT WITH VCTS AGAIN TO HINT AT THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITIES.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE GOING FCST...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ONGOING PCPN TRENDS ALONG THE COAST (IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW). HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTN. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. 41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013/
A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WITH
OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM WHARTON TO THE ANGLETON AREA TO HIGH ISLAND. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS
NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE AREA BECOMES POSITIONED ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IF THE
MODELS ARE CORRECT IN BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO OUR AREA TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL
END UP DRY AND WARMER WITH SOME INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S.
ON AVERAGE...THE DATE THAT CLL REACHES 100 DEGREES IS JULY 15TH...AND
FOR IAH IS JULY 18TH. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 71 91 73 93 / 10 10 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 72 92 74 93 / 20 10 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 86 77 87 79 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
252 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST WI.
THE NORTHEAST WI SHORTWAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING NORTHEAST OF I-94. MORE SHOWERS
EXIST OVER WESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST MN AND BACK INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND INCREASING 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12Z RAOB
DATA FROM GGW AND UNR SHOWED 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 40-60 METERS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE RANGES FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PER GOES DERIVED IMAGERY...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH IS 100-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALTOSTRATUS
HAS SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AIDED TOO BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN A RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THAT NORTHEAST
WI SHORTWAVE.
MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND WITH THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SLOW IT DOWN AND DIG SOUTHEAST MORE. COMPARE AT 12Z
SUNDAY WHERE THE 07.12Z NAM DEPICTED A FORMING UPPER LOW NEAR
MONTEVIDEO MN...AND NOW THE 08.12Z NAM IS NEAR SIOUX CITY IA. THE
08.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR OMAHA. THIS
HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST. WITH THE
GENERAL SLOW DOWN OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOSED
OFF UPPER LOW THAT FORMS...HAVE DELAYED THE SPREAD EASTWARD OF THE
SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SLOW DOWN RESULTS IN INSTABILITY TAKING
LONGER TO GET NORTH INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE PULLED MOST OF THE
THUNDER CHANCES FOR TONIGHT EXCEPT IN NORTHEAST IA LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
INTERESTINGLY...THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 SEPARATE SHOWER BANDS FOR
TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS A WARM ADVECTION BAND...SEEN ON THE 310 K
SURFACE AND OBSERVED RIGHT NOW ON RADAR BETWEEN ROCHESTER AND
CHARLES CITY. THIS BAND IS HIGHER BASED AND HAVING TO CONTEND WITH
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR...PRECLUDING ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAP/HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT OF THIS BAND
SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. TRIED TO PLAY THIS BAND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH SOME DRYING INDICATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. THE NEXT
SHOWER BAND WOULD BE THE TRUE WARM CONVEYOR BELT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FORMING UPPER LOW. THIS REALLY STARTS TO GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
FOR SUNDAY...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL SLIDE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING...THEN GET STUCK AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS INTO
CENTRAL IA. IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE SOME FORM OF THE BELT
WEAKENING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AS THE FORCING FOCUS
SHIFTS UP TOWARDS CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...BEING IN AGEOSTROPHIC
CURVATURE DIVERGENCE AT 500MB ...PLUS DAYTIME HEATING AND MINIMAL
CAPPING SHOULD YIELD PERSISTENT SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY AS THE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPES UPWARDS
OF 500 TO AT MOST 1000 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY...AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY 25 KT OR LESS...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANZIED SEVERE STORMS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES...IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR...WOULD STAY WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE PROGGED SURFACE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW WHILE A RIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS AND NAM WANT TO PUSH THE LOW EAST
INTO INDIANA WHILE THE GEM/EC LINGER IT FARTHER WEST WITH OUR AREA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. EITHER WAY...APPEARS PR THE BUFKIT DATA
THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT GIVEN STEEP
LOWER-LEVEL LAPSE RATE. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WHILE THE NAM/GEM ARE BOTH DRY GIVEN
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER THE CUMULUS.
WILL TAKE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AT THIS TIME WHICH INCLUDES A
20-40 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...TAPERING INTO
THE 20-30 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE.
BRIEF RESPITE FROM RAIN EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH FURTHER RIDGE-BUILDING TAKING PLACE INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE
BRIEF INDEED AS MODELS SHOWING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/IA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PUSHES A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN IA THROUGH NORTHERN IL WITH MODERATE 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IMPINGING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS///SOUTH OF I-90//. THIS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NUDGE UPWARD INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. IF THIS
COMES TO FRUITION...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS SOUTH OF I-90. LATEST ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TAPERING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE CONUS WITH
WARMING ACROSS OUR AREA. DOESNT APPEAR TO BE COMPLETELY RAIN-FREE AT
THIS POINT AS A COUPLE WEAK WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR PERIODIC
SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COULD SEE THIS PERIOD
BECOMING DRY WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS GIVEN STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL CAP. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A MUCH-NEEDED DRYING
OUT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A FEW DIFFERENT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING TOWARD KRST/KLSE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE BIG IDEA OF DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FIRST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO SE MINNESOTA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NOT REACH KLSE UNTIL AFTER 02Z. THEN
AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NEARBY...A STEADIER BAND OF RAIN WILL PIVOT
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST...HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES COME AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KRST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AND
LOW-END MVFR AT KLSE. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MORNING
SINCE INSTABILITY WEDGE IS KEPT WELL SOUTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING IMPROVING CEILINGS. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THIS MAY WARRANT A THUNDER
MENTION BEGINNING BY 18Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94 WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI...THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM. ISOLATED TSRA ARE ALSO
OCCURRING WITH CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE MEDFORD-
WAUSAU AREA. LOOKING AT THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM 500-300MB IT
IS ASTOUNDINGLY STRONG FOR JUNE WITH A VERY NICE DIPOLE OF
LIFT...FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE POST-WAVE. THUS...HAVE REALLY
INCREASED THE MORNING RAIN CHANCES AND ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST.
WOULD THINK MOS OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD BE MOST
ENHANCED THIS MORNING WITH A STABILITY BUILDING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE SUBSIDENT PART OF THE IMPULSE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
SUFFER A BIT TODAY AS WELL...BUT THIS IS TRICKY AND DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS WITH WHEN THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND WHEN ANY
THUNDER MAY OCCUR.
CURRENTLY...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS WERE NOTED VIA WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08.07Z RAP ANALYSIS WITH ONE WEST TO EAST TROUGH
FROM THE UP OF MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER...MORE
VIGOROUS...WAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A LOW ANALYZED IN EASTERN MONTANA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WHAT
APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 700-500MB. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE DRY TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN UNTIL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE WAVE...SO EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MAX
OUT IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
THICKENS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WHEN THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN AS THE MAIN WING
OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE TREND WITH
THE 08.00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO GO A BIT SLOWER AND SOUTHWEST WITH
THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN GETTING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE IN SOUTH DAKOTA...EXPECT THAT
THE BEST INITIAL THUNDER CHANCES WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST CHANNEL OF 850-925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES UP INTO
THE REGION. BASED ON 08.00Z GUIDANCE...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
THUNDER WEST OF THE RIVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF THE RIVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH FOLLOWS WHERE THIS MAIN LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT IS.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ROUND AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
GOING INTO THE SUNDAY THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THE 08.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND WEAKENING OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A GENERAL TRACK OF IT GOING THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GETS CUT
OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND APPEARS TO TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. OF THESE THREE
MODELS...THE GFS PRODUCES THE MOST 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT ALSO HAS SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S WHICH...WHEN MODIFIED TO AROUND 60 IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...ONLY PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO RELEGATED TO THE
LOWEST 1 OR 2KM...SO THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH.
THE 08.00Z NAM IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLIER AS IT IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE CLOSING OFF OF THE LOW AND POSES SOME CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WPC MENTIONS IN THE PMDHMD THIS MORNING THAT WHILE THE
00Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREFERENCE OF THE OTHER MODELS...IT
HAS ISSUES IN HOW IT IS HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. DESPITE THIS...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE ALL SHOWN
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE DRY LINE. THE 08.00Z NAM ALSO
DEVELOPS TOO HIGH OF SURFACE DEW POINTS...MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH
YIELDS TOO HIGH OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...EVEN MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
FOR A 60F SURFACE DEW POINT STILL BRINGS ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALL IN THE LOWEST 2-3KM...BUT DOES HAVE A
LOT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH IT. DESPITE THIS SCENARIO NOT
LOOKING VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
LEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS
WITH STRONG WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH TRACKS TO THE EAST AND A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS
LIKE A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN FALLING
ACROSS THIS REGION. PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 08.00Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH STARTING THIS RAIN UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING
IT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
A FEW DIFFERENT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING TOWARD KRST/KLSE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE BIG IDEA OF DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FIRST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO SE MINNESOTA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NOT REACH KLSE UNTIL AFTER 02Z. THEN
AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NEARBY...A STEADIER BAND OF RAIN WILL PIVOT
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST...HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES COME AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KRST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AND
LOW-END MVFR AT KLSE. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MORNING
SINCE INSTABILITY WEDGE IS KEPT WELL SOUTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING IMPROVING CEILINGS. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THIS MAY WARRANT A THUNDER
MENTION BEGINNING BY 18Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS EXITING EAST OF OUR PANHANDLE ZONES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15Z HRRR INDICATES
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES DO NOT EXCEED 200 J/KG...SO
TSTORMS WILL BE WEAK AND PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE
RAINFALL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MID MORNING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY WAS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
THIS MORNING AND END IN THE EARLY EVENING, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z.
UPSTREAM THREE HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WERE UP TO 2MB BEHIND
THE FRONT AS OF 08Z. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR
TO THOSE OF FRIDAY. THE DAY WILL START OFF MILD...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION SLOWING WARMING DURING THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH TODAY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
THE CWA WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OF TODAY AS HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
MONDAY...QUITE HOT WITH RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 18 CELSIUS...YIELDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 90S EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ACT TO PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...CIN...AND WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP OVER THE
NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
TUESDAY...WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD BUT WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM DOUGLAS TO LUSK...DRY
ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH PROJECTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES FROM
16 TO 18 CELSIUS.
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DUE TO INCREASING UPSLOPE WINDS. DRY DAY
WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 18 CELSIUS.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF...WITH
RESPECT TO THE HEAT. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DOUGLAS TO LUSK NEAR A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BEST CHANCES FOR TSTORMS
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH SCT050CB AT CHADRON. ELSEWHERE...TSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN TAFS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL GUST AS HIGH AS HIGH AS 35 KT ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...AND 25 KT TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE CURRENT GREEN-UP AND NON CRITICAL FUEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY OVER THE CWA AND THEN WILL WARM
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS WEEKEND AND THEN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE CWA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
OVER THE ROCKIES THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL PRODUCE THE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...WEILAND
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND