Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/07/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES...MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND TO REFLECT SOLID OVC CONDITIONS
FOR THE PLAINS. STILL EXPECTING SOME TS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SRN MTS...MOVING E TO THE SE PLAINS BY EARLY EVE. A
COUPLE OF THESE CELLS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD SHIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
...COOL AND CLOUDY ACROSS THE EAST...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DRAG ACROSS NORTHEAST CO THIS MORNING...WITH
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/PV LOBE NEARING THE 4 CORNERS REGION MOVING
ACROSS NRN NM TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER ASSOC WITH LOW LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN BACA
COUNTY...PRODUCING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. BUT THIS AXIS SHOULD
BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
FOR TODAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE CO IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. INSTEAD...A SPOTTY LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SOUTH
ALONG/BEHIND THE SECONDARY PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RUC13 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE PLAIN TODAY...WITH DEW POINT GRADIENT LYING UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WITH AFTN HEATING AND SOME
INCOMING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY STABLE ACROSS THE PLAINS THOUGH
DEEPLY SATURATED...SO THINK MAJORITY OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SOME SHOWERS. WITH AFTN HEATING...THE RATON MESA REGION
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CAPE VALUES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY...AROUND 20-30 KTS...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE PULSEY
IN NATURE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CORES...THOUGH SUSPECT IT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH IN
DIAMETER...THUS THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT. FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THIS REGION WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN CLOSER TO
PROXIMITY TO ENERGY FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LACK OF FORCING
TO KEEP IT GOING. LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN STRONG ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S)
IN SPITE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT. MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. FOR NOW
THOUGH...UPSLOPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THINK THIS WILL BE MORE
STRATUS THAN A FOG EVENT. BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL MESSAGE WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
TIMES.
LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ETC. INDICATE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEVADA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO
NEW MEXICO BY LATER SUNDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT THAT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK(WHEN COMPARED TO TODAYS TEMPERATURES) AS
PROJECTED I-25 CORRIDOR 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AFTERNOON
READINGS AROUND 7C TODAY TO AROUND 20C OR HIGHER FROM SUNDAY INTO AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
ALSO...EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...WHERE
SOME GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS MAY DEVELOP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THEN BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS(PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224) ARE
PROJECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. LATEST FUELS PAGE STILL INDICATES THAT FUELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THIS REGION UNTIL THE FUELS
STATUS CHANGES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT ON TUESDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES START RUNNING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED
100F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CURRENT IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR
TS THIS AFTERNOON AT KALS...AND FG CHANCES TOMORROW MORNING.
AT KCOS AND KPUB...LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CIGS AT KPUB SHOULD COME UP A BIT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT
MVFR LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH EVE. A BETTER CHANCE AT KCOS FOR
CIGS TO LIFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT MVFR CIGS STILL A
POSSIBILITY.
AT KALS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 H. COULD SEE SOME
SCT TS DEVELOP OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 21Z...BUT THESE STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVE.
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FOR FG EARLY THU MORNING. FG COULD OCCUR
AT KPUB AND KCOS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS HIGHEST AT KCOS.
WILL STILL LIKELY SEE LOW CIGS AT KPUB. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY
14-16Z THU MORNING. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1048 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES...MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND TO REFLECT SOLID OVC CONDITIONS
FOR THE PLAINS. STILL EXPECTING SOME TS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SRN MTS...MOVING E TO THE SE PLAINS BY EARLY EVE. A
COUPLE OF THESE CELLS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD SHIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
...COOL AND CLOUDY ACROSS THE EAST...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DRAG ACROSS NORTHEAST CO THIS MORNING...WITH
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/PV LOBE NEARING THE 4 CORNERS REGION MOVING
ACROSS NRN NM TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER ASSOC WITH LOW LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN BACA
COUNTY...PRODUCING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. BUT THIS AXIS SHOULD
BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
FOR TODAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE CO IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. INSTEAD...A SPOTTY LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SOUTH
ALONG/BEHIND THE SECONDARY PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RUC13 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE PLAIN TODAY...WITH DEW POINT GRADIENT LYING UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WITH AFTN HEATING AND SOME
INCOMING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY STABLE ACROSS THE PLAINS THOUGH
DEEPLY SATURATED...SO THINK MAJORITY OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SOME SHOWERS. WITH AFTN HEATING...THE RATON MESA REGION
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CAPE VALUES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY...AROUND 20-30 KTS...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE PULSEY
IN NATURE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CORES...THOUGH SUSPECT IT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH IN
DIAMETER...THUS THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT. FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THIS REGION WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN CLOSER TO
PROXIMITY TO ENERGY FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LACK OF FORCING
TO KEEP IT GOING. LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN STRONG ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S)
IN SPITE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT. MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. FOR NOW
THOUGH...UPSLOPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THINK THIS WILL BE MORE
STRATUS THAN A FOG EVENT. BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL MESSAGE WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
TIMES.
LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ETC. INDICATE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEVADA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO
NEW MEXICO BY LATER SUNDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT THAT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK(WHEN COMPARED TO TODAYS TEMPERATURES) AS
PROJECTED I-25 CORRIDOR 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AFTERNOON
READINGS AROUND 7C TODAY TO AROUND 20C OR HIGHER FROM SUNDAY INTO AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
ALSO...EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...WHERE
SOME GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS MAY DEVELOP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THEN BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS(PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224) ARE
PROJECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. LATEST FUELS PAGE STILL INDICATES THAT FUELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THIS REGION UNTIL THE FUELS
STATUS CHANGES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT ON TUESDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES START RUNNING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED
100F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
MVFR TO POCKETS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. KPUB WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR TO MVFR
CATEGORY...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KCOS. THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME -SHRA AFFECTING BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN EITHER TAF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MVFR TO VFR CIGS TO PERSIST ALL DAY...WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY FOR KCOS TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KPUB. KALS WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...THEN VFR CIGS WITH -TSRA
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE VALLEY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. THESE WILL BE STRONGER AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
519 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
...COOL AND CLOUDY ACROSS THE EAST...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DRAG ACROSS NORTHEAST CO THIS MORNING...WITH
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/PV LOBE NEARING THE 4 CORNERS REGION MOVING
ACROSS NRN NM TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER ASSOC WITH LOW LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN BACA
COUNTY...PRODUCING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. BUT THIS AXIS SHOULD
BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
FOR TODAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE CO IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. INSTEAD...A SPOTTY LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SOUTH
ALONG/BEHIND THE SECONDARY PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RUC13 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE PLAIN TODAY...WITH DEW POINT GRADIENT LYING UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WITH AFTN HEATING AND SOME
INCOMING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY STABLE ACROSS THE PLAINS THOUGH
DEEPLY SATURATED...SO THINK MAJORITY OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SOME SHOWERS. WITH AFTN HEATING...THE RATON MESA REGION
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CAPE VALUES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY...AROUND 20-30 KTS...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE PULSEY
IN NATURE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CORES...THOUGH SUSPECT IT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH IN
DIAMETER...THUS THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT. FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THIS REGION WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN CLOSER TO
PROXIMITY TO ENERGY FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LACK OF FORCING
TO KEEP IT GOING. LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN STRONG ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S)
IN SPITE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT. MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. FOR NOW
THOUGH...UPSLOPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THINK THIS WILL BE MORE
STRATUS THAN A FOG EVENT. BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL MESSAGE WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
TIMES.
LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ETC. INDICATE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEVADA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO
NEW MEXICO BY LATER SUNDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT THAT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK(WHEN COMPARED TO TODAYS TEMPERATURES) AS
PROJECTED I-25 CORRIDOR 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AFTERNOON
READINGS AROUND 7C TODAY TO AROUND 20C OR HIGHER FROM SUNDAY INTO AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
ALSO...EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...WHERE
SOME GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS MAY DEVELOP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THEN BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS(PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224) ARE
PROJECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. LATEST FUELS PAGE STILL INDICATES THAT FUELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THIS REGION UNTIL THE FUELS
STATUS CHANGES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT ON TUESDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES START RUNNING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED
100F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
MVFR TO POCKETS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. KPUB WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR TO MVFR
CATEGORY...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KCOS. THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME -SHRA AFFECTING BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN EITHER TAF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MVFR TO VFR CIGS TO PERSIST ALL DAY...WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY FOR KCOS TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KPUB. KALS WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...THEN VFR CIGS WITH -TSRA
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE VALLEY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. THESE WILL BE STRONGER AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION FLARED UP JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER LAST NIGHT AND THIS HAS PRODUCED A MASSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR WATERS WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE BROAD
CIRCULATION LOCATION BUT DIFFER WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSEST
ALIGNMENT AND TAKE IT TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS PLACES SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A
CONTINUED FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WITH A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW
TODAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REAL
DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER RESTRICTING THE INSTABILITY
WHICH IS CURRENTLY LACKING. THIS ALSO IS REFLECTED IN THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE LAKE REGION BUT
NOTHING MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT. IN ADDITION, IT NOW APPEARS THAT
THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE SLIM
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO NEAR THE WEST COAST AND WATERSPOUTS OVER
THE GULF WATERS MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY. THIS
REALLY IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN FORM
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. IN ADDITION, AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH
THE SURFACE WIND WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY. THE GULF TIDES ARE
RUNNING AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL SO THIS COMBINED WITH THE
ONSHORE WIND, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY NEAR EVERGLADES CITY, MARCO ISLAND AND THE COASTAL
AREAS OF NAPLES.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES,
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT ALLOWING THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH SOME COOLING AT 500 MB BY ONE DEGREE CELSIUS. THE AFFECTS
WILL MAINLY BE MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH
BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE TRAILING TO ITS SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS WILL REVERT THE PATTERN BACK TO A EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE
EAST AND THEN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST AT BEST THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND WHAT IMPACTS ON SOUTH
FLORIDA IT WILL HAVE. CURRENTLY, THOUGHTS ARE TO BACK OFF ON THE
FORECAST RAIN AND WIND AMOUNTS. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH
MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS,NOW TAKING THE LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. THIS WOULD WIND DOWN PRECIPITATION
MUCH EARLIER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES. REFLECTED THIS BY ONLY A
VCSH FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, INSTEAD OF TAKING IT OUT ENTIRELY.
THIS IS AGAIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR, WITH BRIEF MVFR AND MAYBE SOME
IFR WITH ANY MODERATE SHOWERS DUE TO LOWER CIGS MOST LIKELY.
WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTH. THEY MAY PICK UP
TOMORROW TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO
STRENGTHEN.
&&
.MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
WIND INCREASING TO SCA CRITERIA ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL SCEC ALL OTHER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING EAST AND DIMINISHING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 83 76 83 / 50 60 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 85 78 86 / 40 60 50 60
MIAMI 76 85 77 84 / 40 60 50 60
NAPLES 73 84 76 84 / 70 70 50 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GULF WATERS
FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1024 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS. HEAVY CLOUD
COVER IS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING REFLECTS THIS WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RADAR
SIGNATURES SHOW ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MODERATE RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THIS DIMINISHING AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE PENINSULA AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH
CURRENTLY ONLY HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE LIGHT RAIN BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IT DOES SHOW SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. SO FOR THAT REASON WILL SCALE BACK ON THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013/
AVIATION...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED FAST MOVING SHRA WILL BE
LIKELY IN THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT KAPF
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR KAPF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MVFR CIGS FOR THE EAST COAST AS
WELL AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...LEFT VFR FOR THE EAST COAST FOR NOW. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013/
.VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY...
SHORT TERM...
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE
SHORT RANGED MODELS TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN
PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SO THE POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSEST TO THE LOW BEFORE SPREADING OVER
REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS TODAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
WITH THE LOW APPROACHING NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
HELICITY WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE FIRST OVER THE WEST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY AND THEN OVER REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS TODAY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS
TO POSSIBILITY ROTATE...AND THEN ANY STORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO ROTATE. SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TORNADOES IN THE MORNING HWO PACKAGE FOR THE WEST COAST FOR TODAY
AND THEN ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE MORE DIURNAL OVER THE AREA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BACK FROM A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE AREA TO GET BACK TO MORE A EARLY SUMMER
TIME WEATHER PATTERN. SO THE POPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE
GULF WATERS WHERE THEY WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR-SHORE AND 20 TO
25 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF WATERS WHERE
THEY SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR-SHORE AND 25 TO
30 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL THE SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BELOW
6 FEET TODAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS AND BUILD TO 6 TO 8
FEET IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BY THURSDAY. SO WILL PUT UP A
SCEC FOR THE NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS AND A SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SCEC MAYBE NEEDED FOR REST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AND A SCA FOR THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR REST OF THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE...DUE TO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH END OF THIS WEEK.
HYDROLOGY...
THE HPC MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE ANY TRAINING OCCURS OVER THE
AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY TO SEE IF A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 75 86 76 / 60 60 70 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 77 86 78 / 60 60 70 60
MIAMI 87 76 87 77 / 60 60 70 50
NAPLES 85 75 85 76 / 80 80 90 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GULF WATERS
FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1016 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE NORTH JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT BEFORE PULLING FARTHER AWAY FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS INLAND. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANDREA MOVING NE OF LAKE CITY FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SHIELD
OF STEADY TROPICAL RAINS HAS EXPANDED WELL N AND NE AND THE FLANKS
OF THE SYSTEM. SOMEWHAT DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL AIR HAS WRAPPED INTO THE
S AND SE PARTS OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TREND INCREASED THE RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOES ALONG SE SOUTH CAROLINA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
AND ALSO HAS US TRENDING DOWN A BIT WITH ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN SE GEORGIA THIS IS NOT TO SAY THE FLOODING RISK
IS A LESSER CONCERN...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND WITH INTENSE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION...RAINS COULD EASILY REDEVELOP
OVER SE GEORGIA UNTIL ANDREA PASSES.
ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE DRIER AIR IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF DISCREET
MINI-SUPERCELLS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN ONE OF THESE DEVELOP JUST OFF BEAUFORT COUNTY...MOVING ONSHORE.
0-1KM SRH VALUES OFF THE LATEST RUC OPS ANALYSIS IS IN THE 300/350
M2/S2 RANGE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS FROM BEAUFORT TO COLLETON AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES AND
MAY POKE INTO PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WITH TIME.
OVERALL...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS OTHERWISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANDREA WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA QUICKLY ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT WARMING DURING THE
DAY ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD STILL SEE UPPER 80S OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND
MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
SATURDAY TEMPS WILL REACH 90 IN SPOTS WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
DRASTICALLY WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH PW
VALUES EXCEEDING 2.10 INCHES...TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SW...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
DAY FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH DEEP RIDGING TO THE WEST. A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THEREAFTER. POPS FEATURE A PRETTY TYPICAL DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TREND WITH TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY...FIRST AT KSAV AND THEN AT
KCHS AS TS ANDREA MOVES AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMS THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY BE NO
WORSE THAN IFR BUT COULD BE LOWER...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PICK UP
TO AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS
NEAR 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS. UNTIL THEN...KCHS SHOULD SEE SOME
LLWS GIVEN THE INCREASING 2K FT WINDS TO AROUND 40 KT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS ANDREA PASSES
BY...THEN MORE WESTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW MORE SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
EXTENDED AVIATION...LOW CHANCES OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AS
TS ANDREA MOVES NORTH JUST INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH WITH GUSTS TO UP TO 45 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH
THE INCREASING WINDS UP TO 10 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 13 FT ACROSS THE
GA WATERS OUT TO 60 NM.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TS ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AND JUST INLAND OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DANGEROUS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. TS
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL RETURN CONDITIONS TO TYPICAL WARM-SEASON WINDS/SEAS
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND DEEP ATLANTIC
AND GULF MOISTURE FEEDS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SHIFT NORTH
AND WEST AS TS ANDREA MOVES UP THE COAST AND THUS THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL MAY SET UP INLAND...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE COAST SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL THERE. RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-5 INCHES WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COASTAL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FLOODING GIVEN THE ADDED INFLUENCE OF
ELEVATED TIDES...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.5 TO 1.0 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS
EVENING AND EXPECT THIS GENERAL TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO TIDE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR INUNDATION
OF SALTWATER IN LOW-LYING LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST...PARTICULARLY
AROUND THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. THE HIGH TIDE
AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY IS LOWER AND WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE AS ANDREA PASSES BY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GEORGIA
COAST...ALTHOUGH MINOR INUNDATION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE. OF
COURSE...FLOODING CAN BE EXAGGERATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GAZ116>119-138>141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SCZ045-047>052.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ330-350-352-354-374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
437 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRE-DAWN...SURFACE BOUNDARY DELINEATIONS HARD TO DECIPHER WITH LIGHT
AND VRBL WIND FIELDS SEEN ON OVERNIGHT ANALYSIS. A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL DEW POINT GRADIENT REMAINS TO THE N ALONG THE BORDER OF
THE CAROLINAS. LATEST RUC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE
OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE N OF I-16 IN SE GEORGIA. AT
925 MB...MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER RIVER BUT LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WERE
N OF THERE IN CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE SEE AN
EXPANSION OF THESE CONVECTIVE RAINS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED A BIT OVERNIGHT INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN SOUTH
CAROLINA...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR TO MID
MORNING.
THE RECENT TRENDS TOWARD WETTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
CONDITIONS RIPE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL BEGIN THE DAY
WITH PLENTY OF LAYERED CLOUDINESS...FROM STRATUS TO MID CLOUDS TO
HIGH CLOUDS. THE STAGNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO FOCUS
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC WHILE A SHORT WAVE OVER ALABAMA AND NORTH
GEORGIA BRUSHES TO THE NW. UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
MODELS INDICATE UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. INSOLATION
UP TO MAX HEATING TODAY MAY BE TEMPERED BY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ANCHOR MANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZE
TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH NUMEROUS
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND MODERATE DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY. ATTENTION
REALLY TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE CONVECTION. LIKE WE
HAVE SEEN ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD BE
PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCERS LOCALLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN
REALIZE SOME GOOD MORNING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. BY AFTERNOON HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ONGOING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND W OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
LIKELY POPS FURTHER N OVER THIS REGION LATER TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT N WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SURGE N FROM THE
GULF AND FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP CLOSER TO
THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO
SET UP ONCE AGAIN. SOME LATE NIGHT DOWNPOURS A FAIR BET FROM
THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE UP TO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG...PATCHY FOG AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PROBABLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A VERY ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST THAT
WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY THE PRECISE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW
POISED TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SC/GA COASTLINE.
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE 00Z/05 ECMWF FOR THE LOW
TRACK WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER DIRECTLY OVER SAVANNAH AT 12Z FRIDAY.
BY AND LARGE...THE SUITE OF MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR TRACK TAKING IT
INTO THE BIG BEND OF FL AND THEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH SOME FAVORING
A MORE INLAND TRACK AND OTHERS FEATURING AN OFFSHORE TRACK. THE NAM
HAS BEEN THROWN OUT ALL TOGETHER...THE GFS IS FASTER AND
OFFSHORE...AND THE MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE ARE CLOSELY CLUSTERED
ALONG OUR COASTLINE. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND FEATURES A SLIGHTLY INLAND TRACK.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED AROUND THE GULF
LOW. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS IN THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINS EARLY THIS
WEEK. THE FORECAST FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM CORE
AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL...WITH A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. WITH THE TWO SCENARIOS
THERE ARE MUCH DIFFERENT POSSIBLE IMPACTS. A TRACK THAT IS OFFSHORE
WOULD CERTAINLY MEAN LESS RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS BEING WEST OF THE
TRACK WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. AN INLAND TRACK WOULD BRING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO MUCH
OF THE REGION AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. ALSO...THERE MAY BE A SMALL CORRIDOR OF AREA JUST EAST OF
THE LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN A VERY TROPICAL LIKE
ENVIRONMENT. SO...FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE INLAND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF AND CORRESPONDINGLY HAS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS AND WINDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95. OBVIOUSLY THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES FOR
MODIFICATIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH JUST AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LEFT BEHIND INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGHING ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL OCCUR AS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH LEAVING A VERY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FOR THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DO DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF EAST COAST TROUGHING AND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF. THE FORECAST FEATURES TYPICAL
DIURNAL SCATTER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS FEATURE
A WARMING TREND LOWS 90S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH DAYBREAK...LATEST THINKING AT KSAV KEEPS VFR CONDITIONS THANKS
TO SOME PERSISTENT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KCHS...IFR CONDITIONS
FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 12Z WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF 1 TO 3 MILE VSBYS.
A STALLED BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE RAINS ONCE AGAIN WITH 00Z MODELS SHOWING THE
BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHER QPF OVER INLAND SE GEORGIA TODAY. AT
THIS POINT WE INTRODUCED SHOWER AND TSTM TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS INTO
THE TAFS WITH TIMING ADJUSTMENT EXPECTED WITH TIME AS THE
MESOSCALE CONDITIONS DICTATE.
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DUE TO MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS INTO THURSDAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTIES SURROUND THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEARBY THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE APPEARING MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SE TO S BY LATE TONIGHT. SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...LOCALLY HIGHER OFFSHORE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE
THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS
WILL BE 10-15 KT DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
THE IMPROVING SOUTHEAST FETCH. THE FORECAST COMPLEXITY THEN
INCREASES AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS REGARDING THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE FORECAST
IMPACTS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON IT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. THE
CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES A TRACK THAT IS SLIGHTLY INLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES AND
INCREASING SEAS IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE
2 TO 4 INCHES...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING STORMS. THUS...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND
ALONG THE COAST AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE OCCURRENCE AND
EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED.
WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE IL RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY LATE WHILE KEEPING
EASTERN IL DRY. SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
EASTERN IL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR TODAY. SE WINDS STAYING
UNDER 10 MPH.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1245 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THU AND
USED VCSH TO ADDRESS THIS SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASSES NORTH AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
NEXT 24 HOURS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. RADAR
MOSIAC LOOP SHOWS MOST OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING NROTH OF GALESBURG SO FAR TODAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 4-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
SUNSET AND WILL LIKELY APPEAR AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH
MVFR CEILINGS STAYING NW OF PIA/IL RIVER ON THU MORNING. ALSO HAVE
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT FOG/HAZE OF 4-5 MILES FROM 09Z-14Z
AS IT OCCURRED IN SPI EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F WITH LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT ESE WINDS TO
EVEN VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON TO TURN MORE NE DURING
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING AND STAY UNDER 10 KTS.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
ILLINOIS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...ALTHOUGH THE AIR BELOW
700 MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY PER RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR GALESBURG
AND MOLINE...SO AM NOT BANKING ON THESE SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWEST CWA AT THE MOMENT. A LARGE MCS COVERED MUCH OF KANSAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES NOT IN ANY BIG HURRY TO
LEAVE...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN OUR AREA A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. HAVE LIMITED MOST POPS TO AREAS WEST OF I-55...AND EVEN
THEN IT WOULD BE MORE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HAVE
MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST TOWARD I-57 THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...LINKING UP WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHEARS OUT...FOCUS
WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
BETWEEN SHOULD MOVE INTO ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESSENING
SUPPORT. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN MCS LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
WRF MODEL.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE FRONT STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...AND LIMITED THUNDER
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AS THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS
FURTHER. MAIN EMPHASIS WILL COME WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH THAT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT
HAS SHIFTED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH FROM THE 12Z RUN. THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MORE OF A THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR OUR AREA...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE MIDWEST IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL RING
OF FIRE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE LIKELY TRACK. THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH AND HAS OUR AREA MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED...WHILE
THE ECMWF FAVORS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED.
WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE IL RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY LATE WHILE KEEPING
EASTERN IL DRY. SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
EASTERN IL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR TODAY. SE WINDS STAYING
UNDER 10 MPH.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 633 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PRECIP
TODAY/TONIGHT...MOSTLY IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTION PASSING TO THE
SOUTH. WITH VARIED SOLUTIONS...FORECAST RATHER CONSERVATIVE.
PLENTY OF STRATOCU OUT THERE ALREADY IN THE SE...AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. CU RULE KEEPS A BKN AFTERNOON
CU FIELD. SHOWERS TO THE NW ARE ERODING FOR NOW...BUT EVENTUALLY
SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL SATURATE THE COLUMN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA. CONFIDENCE FOR PARTICULAR TIME FRAME IS LOW...CONSIDERING THE
TREND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS. KEEPING THE VCTS/VCSH MENTION IN
AFTER 00Z AND KEEPING IT THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT BEHAVIOR OF CURRENT MCS JUST TOO MUCH OF
A WILD CARD TO PUT FURTHER DEFINITION ON TIMING.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
ILLINOIS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...ALTHOUGH THE AIR BELOW
700 MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY PER RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR GALESBURG
AND MOLINE...SO AM NOT BANKING ON THESE SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWEST CWA AT THE MOMENT. A LARGE MCS COVERED MUCH OF KANSAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES NOT IN ANY BIG HURRY TO
LEAVE...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN OUR AREA A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. HAVE LIMITED MOST POPS TO AREAS WEST OF I-55...AND EVEN
THEN IT WOULD BE MORE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HAVE
MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST TOWARD I-57 THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...LINKING UP WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHEARS OUT...FOCUS
WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
BETWEEN SHOULD MOVE INTO ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESSENING
SUPPORT. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN MCS LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
WRF MODEL.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE FRONT STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...AND LIMITED THUNDER
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AS THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS
FURTHER. MAIN EMPHASIS WILL COME WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH THAT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT
HAS SHIFTED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH FROM THE 12Z RUN. THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MORE OF A THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR OUR AREA...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE MIDWEST IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL RING
OF FIRE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE LIKELY TRACK. THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH AND HAS OUR AREA MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED...WHILE
THE ECMWF FAVORS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
639 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
ILLINOIS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...ALTHOUGH THE AIR BELOW
700 MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY PER RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR GALESBURG
AND MOLINE...SO AM NOT BANKING ON THESE SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWEST CWA AT THE MOMENT. A LARGE MCS COVERED MUCH OF KANSAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES NOT IN ANY BIG HURRY TO
LEAVE...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN OUR AREA A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. HAVE LIMITED MOST POPS TO AREAS WEST OF I-55...AND EVEN
THEN IT WOULD BE MORE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HAVE
MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST TOWARD I-57 THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...LINKING UP WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHEARS OUT...FOCUS
WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
BETWEEN SHOULD MOVE INTO ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESSENING
SUPPORT. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN MCS LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
WRF MODEL.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE FRONT STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...AND LIMITED THUNDER
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AS THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS
FURTHER. MAIN EMPHASIS WILL COME WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH THAT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT
HAS SHIFTED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH FROM THE 12Z RUN. THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MORE OF A THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR OUR AREA...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE MIDWEST IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL RING
OF FIRE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE LIKELY TRACK. THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH AND HAS OUR AREA MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED...WHILE
THE ECMWF FAVORS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 633 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PRECIP
TODAY/TONIGHT...MOSTLY IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTION PASSING TO THE
SOUTH. WITH VARIED SOLUTIONS...FORECAST RATHER CONSERVATIVE.
PLENTY OF STRATOCU OUT THERE ALREADY IN THE SE...AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. CU RULE KEEPS A BKN AFTERNOON
CU FIELD. SHOWERS TO THE NW ARE ERODING FOR NOW...BUT EVENTUALLY
SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL SATURATE THE COLUMN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA. CONFIDENCE FOR PARTICULAR TIME FRAME IS LOW...CONSIDERING THE
TREND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS. KEEPING THE VCTS/VCSH MENTION IN
AFTER 00Z AND KEEPING IT THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT BEHAVIOR OF CURRENT MCS JUST TOO MUCH OF
A WILD CARD TO PUT FURTHER DEFINITION ON TIMING.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
306 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
ILLINOIS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...ALTHOUGH THE AIR BELOW
700 MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY PER RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR GALESBURG
AND MOLINE...SO AM NOT BANKING ON THESE SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWEST CWA AT THE MOMENT. A LARGE MCS COVERED MUCH OF KANSAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES NOT IN ANY BIG HURRY TO
LEAVE...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN OUR AREA A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. HAVE LIMITED MOST POPS TO AREAS WEST OF I-55...AND EVEN
THEN IT WOULD BE MORE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HAVE
MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST TOWARD I-57 THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...LINKING UP WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHEARS OUT...FOCUS
WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
BETWEEN SHOULD MOVE INTO ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESSENING
SUPPORT. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN MCS LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
WRF MODEL.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE FRONT STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...AND LIMITED THUNDER
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AS THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS
FURTHER. MAIN EMPHASIS WILL COME WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH THAT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT
HAS SHIFTED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH FROM THE 12Z RUN. THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MORE OF A THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR OUR AREA...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE MIDWEST IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL RING
OF FIRE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE LIKELY TRACK. THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH AND HAS OUR AREA MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED...WHILE
THE ECMWF FAVORS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1115 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE BEING
COVERAGE OF ANY TSRA...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES...SPECIFICALLY SPI...DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE PSBLTY FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AS TEMP
/DEW POINT SPREADS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
00Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIP THAT WAS OUT TO OUR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PROGRESSING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MODELS SUGGEST BAND OF SHOWERS ACRS CENTRAL
THRU EAST CENTRAL IOWA WILL TRACK ENE STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE TWO AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONE TO OUR NORTH AND THE OTHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO SRN IL LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVE. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TOMORROW
WHICH WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING THE VCTS ACRS MAINLY OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES DURING THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-FACTOR WITH MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
00Z ILX SOUNDING EXHIBITING A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM 850
MB TO 500 MB (OR 5000 TO 10000 FT). LEAD BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIR.
SURFACE MAP SHOWING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF LIFT...THE FIRST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW...WHILE
THE SECOND AREA WAS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR A SFC
WAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO THESE SURFACE
WAVES...ONE TO OUR NORTH...AND THE OTHER TO OUR SOUTH. OUR LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STUBBORN DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE. WE HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND BASED ON THE EARLY EVENING TRENDS AND LATEST SHORT
TERM HI-RES FORECASTS...THAT SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
AS A RESULT...OTHER THAN THE USUAL EARLY EVENING ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED THAT
WOULD WARRANT AN EVENING ZONE UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1115 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE BEING
COVERAGE OF ANY TSRA...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES...SPECIFICALLY SPI...DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE PSBLTY FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AS TEMP
/DEW POINT SPREADS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
00Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIP THAT WAS OUT TO OUR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PROGRESSING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MODELS SUGGEST BAND OF SHOWERS ACRS CENTRAL
THRU EAST CENTRAL IOWA WILL TRACK ENE STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE TWO AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONE TO OUR NORTH AND THE OTHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO SRN IL LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVE. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TOMORROW
WHICH WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING THE VCTS ACRS MAINLY OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES DURING THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-FACTOR WITH MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY IN A COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS OUR SOURCE REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY
3 DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST
WEEK AND THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS QUITE LIMITED.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LATEST ILX SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME EXPANDING EAST AS THEY FIGHT THE DRY AIR.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS...ALONG WITH THE SHORT RANGE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DRY AIR BY KEEPING THE
SHOWERS AT BAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-55.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. DUE TO THE
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY MODERATE LIFT
WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCH.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEFORE THE LOWER
LEVELS MOISTEN UP...SO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL
FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO CREATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...SO WILL STICK WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 70-75
RANGE FOR HIGHS.
A BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE AT ODDS LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH DEEPER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS
WHICH RESULTS IN A QUICKER RETURN FLOW...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
EARLIER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE
A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW SATURDAY...AND DONT START TO STRENGTHEN THE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PREFER
THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS RAIN OUT UNTIL SAT NIGHT IN WEST
CENTRAL IL AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY.
THE GFS...HOWEVER TRIES TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BY RAISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MUCH QUICKER ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LIFTING A WARM FRONT TOWARD IL.
THIS LOOKS A BIT TOO QUICK FOR NOW...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
136 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
SEVERAL WEAK...BUT MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE
BEST CHACNES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY 12Z THURS MODELS AGREE THAT POSITIVELY TILTED ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
REMNANTS OF SFC ENERGY WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS ILLINOIS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL DAYS LACK OF MSTR
ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
00Z RUN OF SEVERAL HI RES MODELS NOT PAINTING A GOOD PICTURE WITH
DRY LOW LEVEL SOUNDING...AS E/NE FLOW KEEPS MSTR FROM ADVECTING
IN. NAM/GFS/SREF/LOCAL WRF ALL KEEP THINGS PRETTY DRY TONIGHT.
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE TRIED TO TAKE COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS
OK/KS AND MOVE ENE WITH TIME. CORFIDI VECTORS AND LOCATION OF
DEEPEST MSTR WOULD INDICATE MORE OF A E OR SE TREND FOR CONVECTION
LEADING TO NO LIKELY CONTRIBUTION FROM THE COMPLEX FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. OTHER LIGHTER SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS IOWA INTO PORTIONS
OF WISCONSIN. THESE WERE STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...HAVE
LOWERED POPS BY AT LEAST 10 PERCENT...KEEPING EAST AREAS DRY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT AND TRENDS POPS TO LOW END CHC IN THE WEST.
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPR
50S AS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DECK DOES INCREASE AND THICKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF WEAKENING APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY WIND LOOKS TO INHIBIT EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
PCPN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS BUT TREND HAS
CERTAINLY BEEN SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. TEMPS
REMAIN COOL FOR EARLY JUNE IN LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE ACROSS AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS IN MID
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL TRENDS WITH PCPN IN THE
NEAR TERM COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM ALSO
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT MAIN ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH. DECENT
PV ANOMALY SO MODEL POPS RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO MAKE MANY SHORT WAVES IMPRESSIVE AT THIS RANGE.
SIDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST IN DAY 7 WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING POSSIBLE WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT VERSUS HIGH PRES RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRDLY INCREASE AS UPR LEVEL
LOW OVER MN MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND SFC LOW DVLPS OVER THE OH VALLEY
IN RESPONSE TO MCV MOVG EAST FROM MO. FEW -SHRA PSBL ACROSS NRN
INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE WEST AND
EAST OF THE AREA SO FOR NOW CONTD WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED IN TAFS
AND JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR CEILINGS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1046 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
SEVERAL WEAK...BUT MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE
BEST CHACNES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY 12Z THURS MODELS AGREE THAT POSITIVELY TILTED ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
REMNANTS OF SFC ENERGY WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS ILLINOIS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL DAYS LACK OF MSTR
ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
00Z RUN OF SEVERAL HI RES MODELS NOT PAINTING A GOOD PICTURE WITH
DRY LOW LEVEL SOUNDING...AS E/NE FLOW KEEPS MSTR FROM ADVECTING
IN. NAM/GFS/SREF/LOCAL WRF ALL KEEP THINGS PRETTY DRY TONIGHT.
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE TRIED TO TAKE COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS
OK/KS AND MOVE ENE WITH TIME. CORFIDI VECTORS AND LOCATION OF
DEEPEST MSTR WOULD INDICATE MORE OF A E OR SE TREND FOR CONVECTION
LEADING TO NO LIKELY CONTRIBUTION FROM THE COMPLEX FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. OTHER LIGHTER SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS IOWA INTO PORTIONS
OF WISCONSIN. THESE WERE STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...HAVE
LOWERED POPS BY AT LEAST 10 PERCENT...KEEPING EAST AREAS DRY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT AND TRENDS POPS TO LOW END CHC IN THE WEST.
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPR
50S AS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DECK DOES INCREASE AND THICKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF WEAKENING APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY WIND LOOKS TO INHIBIT EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
PCPN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS BUT TREND HAS
CERTAINLY BEEN SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. TEMPS
REMAIN COOL FOR EARLY JUNE IN LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE ACROSS AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS IN MID
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL TRENDS WITH PCPN IN THE
NEAR TERM COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM ALSO
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT MAIN ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH. DECENT
PV ANOMALY SO MODEL POPS RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO MAKE MANY SHORT WAVES IMPRESSIVE AT THIS RANGE.
SIDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST IN DAY 7 WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING POSSIBLE WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT VERSUS HIGH PRES RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ERN ONTARIO SSW INTO NRN INDIANA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STNRY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. DRY NE-E LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL CONT TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA.
UPR LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN TO WI THIS PERIOD. MID
CLOUD CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NWRN
INDIANA. A FEW -SHRA PSBL AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT BUT
POPS AND CONDITIONAL IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
725 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
SEVERAL WEAK...BUT MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY 12Z THURS MODELS AGREE THAT POSITIVELY TILTED ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
REMNANTS OF SFC ENERGY WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS ILLINOIS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL DAYS LACK OF MSTR
ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
00Z RUN OF SEVERAL HI RES MODELS NOT PAINTING A GOOD PICTURE WITH
DRY LOW LEVEL SOUNDING...AS E/NE FLOW KEEPS MSTR FROM ADVECTING
IN. NAM/GFS/SREF/LOCAL WRF ALL KEEP THINGS PRETTY DRY TONIGHT.
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE TRIED TO TAKE COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS
OK/KS AND MOVE ENE WITH TIME. CORFIDI VECTORS AND LOCATION OF
DEEPEST MSTR WOULD INDICATE MORE OF A E OR SE TREND FOR CONVECTION
LEADING TO NO LIKELY CONTRIBUTION FROM THE COMPLEX FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. OTHER LIGHTER SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS IOWA INTO PORTIONS
OF WISCONSIN. THESE WERE STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...HAVE
LOWERED POPS BY AT LEAST 10 PERCENT...KEEPING EAST AREAS DRY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT AND TRENDS POPS TO LOW END CHC IN THE WEST.
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPR
50S AS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DECK DOES INCREASE AND THICKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF WEAKENING APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY WIND LOOKS TO INHIBIT EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
PCPN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS BUT TREND HAS
CERTAINLY BEEN SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. TEMPS
REMAIN COOL FOR EARLY JUNE IN LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE ACROSS AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS IN MID
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL TRENDS WITH PCPN IN THE
NEAR TERM COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM ALSO
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT MAIN ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH. DECENT
PV ANOMALY SO MODEL POPS RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO MAKE MANY SHORT WAVES IMPRESSIVE AT THIS RANGE.
SIDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST IN DAY 7 WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING POSSIBLE WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT VERSUS HIGH PRES RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ERN ONTARIO SSW INTO NRN INDIANA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STNRY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. DRY NE-E LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL CONT TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA.
UPR LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN TO WI THIS PERIOD. MID
CLOUD CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NWRN
INDIANA. A FEW -SHRA PSBL AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT BUT
POPS AND CONDITIONAL IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
SEVERAL WEAK...BUT MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY 12Z THURS MODELS AGREE THAT POSITIVELY TILTED ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
REMNANTS OF SFC ENERGY WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS ILLINOIS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL DAYS LACK OF MSTR
ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
00Z RUN OF SEVERAL HI RES MODELS NOT PAINTING A GOOD PICTURE WITH
DRY LOW LEVEL SOUNDING...AS E/NE FLOW KEEPS MSTR FROM ADVECTING
IN. NAM/GFS/SREF/LOCAL WRF ALL KEEP THINGS PRETTY DRY TONIGHT.
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE TRIED TO TAKE COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS
OK/KS AND MOVE ENE WITH TIME. CORFIDI VECTORS AND LOCATION OF
DEEPEST MSTR WOULD INDICATE MORE OF A E OR SE TREND FOR CONVECTION
LEADING TO NO LIKELY CONTRIBUTION FROM THE COMPLEX FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. OTHER LIGHTER SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS IOWA INTO PORTIONS
OF WISCONSIN. THESE WERE STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...HAVE
LOWERED POPS BY AT LEAST 10 PERCENT...KEEPING EAST AREAS DRY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT AND TRENDS POPS TO LOW END CHC IN THE WEST.
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPR
50S AS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DECK DOES INCREASE AND THICKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF WEAKENING APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY WIND LOOKS TO INHIBIT EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
PCPN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS BUT TREND HAS
CERTAINLY BEEN SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. TEMPS
REMAIN COOL FOR EARLY JUNE IN LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE ACROSS AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS IN MID
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL TRENDS WITH PCPN IN THE
NEAR TERM COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM ALSO
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT MAIN ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH. DECENT
PV ANOMALY SO MODEL POPS RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO MAKE MANY SHORT WAVES IMPRESSIVE AT THIS RANGE.
SIDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST IN DAY 7 WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING POSSIBLE WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT VERSUS HIGH PRES RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAKENING SYSTEM
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AFTER 00Z THURS. CU MENTIONED IN PREV
DISCUSSION HAVE DISSIPATED WITH MSTR STRUGGLING TO WORK EASTWARD. AS
A RESULT...LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTEND
WITH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1233 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRECIP TRENDS REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. CURRENT RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS PATCHY MAINLY KINEMATIC FORCING FROM ERN DAKOTAS
UPPER LOW SWD INTO IA. RAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CAPES A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH RESULTING IN SMALL UNFOCUSED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CYCLING UP AND DOWN AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST IN
THE MEAN FLOW. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS SCATTERED PRECIP
EVOLVES LATER IN THE DAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND
FORCING GRADUALLY EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIP REMAINING SE. HOWEVER SEVERAL HIGHER RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING RECENT HRRR...SPC SSEO ENSEMBLES AND 00Z
HIRES WRF RUNS ALL SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND FROM DEVELOPING
NRN KS MCV NEWD INTO IA AHEAD OF 1-3KM TROUGH. FEEL THIS CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED SO HAVE KEPT SCT WORDING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FAR
WEST AS I35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IN SPOTS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW WITH MLCAPES ONLY INCREASING TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WEAK NOW DUE TO ELEVATED NATURE
OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY HIGH...BY
THE TIME THE CONVECTION WOULD POTENTIALLY BECOME ROOTED LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON THOSE HIGHER VALUES SHOULD HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST WITH
OVERALL SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED. ONE
CONCERN WOULD BE BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES HOWEVER.
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SHALLOW MIXING AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED 0-3KM
CAPES. NST PARAMETER DOES RESPOND SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE DISORGANIZED SURFACE WIND FIELD AND
INSUFFICIENT ASSOCIATED VORTICITY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THIS WORDING INTO THE HWO...BUT SOMETHING TO
BE WATCHED DURING HEATING. PROBABLY PLENTY OF DRIFTING SCUD AT A
MINIMUM.
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM SW INTO N
CENTRAL IA AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
IT OVER PARTS OF NW IA. VISIBILITIES HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS OBS...BUT STILL MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG FOR A FEW HOURS
THERE. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY CONFIDENCE TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM MOS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS WERE FOCUSED ON THURSDAY MAX TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES...THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD A
NAM12/SREF AND THE HIRES-ARW AND NMM WRF THROUGH
THURSDAY...NAM/SREF FOR FRIDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND TAKES
THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY MOISTURE LOOKS TO SET UP
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT DAY OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK VORT MAX WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING
AND MOISTURE CUTS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GFS DEPICTING STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
ENTERING WESTERN IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES NOT
IMPRESSIVE RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROUGH MOVE
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING CENTRAL IOWA WITH WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DECENT MIXING BY THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MAY
HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP EVEN FURTHER IF TREND CONTINUES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE. 850MB TEMPS BACK TO +16C BY MONDAY AND
EVEN WARMER BY TUESDAY AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING KALO/KOTM AT TIMES...AND LOW
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL STEADILY DEPART TO THE EAST AS WELL. HAVE TAKEN
BEST GUESS AT TIMING THE END OF THESE CIGS...OR THEIR RISE TO
VFR...IN THE 18Z TAFS. OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL END BUT STRATUS/BR
WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY GENERATED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WET
GROUND...AND A SURFACE INVERSION STRENGTHENING PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE TRENDED THE TAFS TOWARD LOWERING VSBYS/CIGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE TAKEN LOWER IN SUBSEQUENT
TAF ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY AT KMCW/KALO/KOTM. CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN IMPROVE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
652 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRECIP TRENDS REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. CURRENT RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS PATCHY MAINLY KINEMATIC FORCING FROM ERN DAKOTAS
UPPER LOW SWD INTO IA. RAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CAPES A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH RESULTING IN SMALL UNFOCUSED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CYCLING UP AND DOWN AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST IN
THE MEAN FLOW. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS SCATTERED PRECIP
EVOLVES LATER IN THE DAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND
FORCING GRADUALLY EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIP REMAINING SE. HOWEVER SEVERAL HIGHER RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING RECENT HRRR...SPC SSEO ENSEMBLES AND 00Z
HIRES WRF RUNS ALL SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND FROM DEVELOPING
NRN KS MCV NEWD INTO IA AHEAD OF 1-3KM TROUGH. FEEL THIS CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED SO HAVE KEPT SCT WORDING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FAR
WEST AS I35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IN SPOTS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW WITH MLCAPES ONLY INCREASING TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WEAK NOW DUE TO ELEVATED NATURE
OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY HIGH...BY
THE TIME THE CONVECTION WOULD POTENTIALLY BECOME ROOTED LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON THOSE HIGHER VALUES SHOULD HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST WITH
OVERALL SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED. ONE
CONCERN WOULD BE BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES HOWEVER.
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SHALLOW MIXING AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED 0-3KM
CAPES. NST PARAMETER DOES RESPOND SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE DISORGANIZED SURFACE WIND FIELD AND
INSUFFICIENT ASSOCIATED VORTICITY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THIS WORDING INTO THE HWO...BUT SOMETHING TO
BE WATCHED DURING HEATING. PROBABLY PLENTY OF DRIFTING SCUD AT A
MINIMUM.
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM SW INTO N
CENTRAL IA AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
IT OVER PARTS OF NW IA. VISIBILITIES HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS OBS...BUT STILL MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG FOR A FEW HOURS
THERE. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY CONFIDENCE TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM MOS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS WERE FOCUSED ON THURSDAY MAX TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES...THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD A
NAM12/SREF AND THE HIRES-ARW AND NMM WRF THROUGH
THURSDAY...NAM/SREF FOR FRIDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND TAKES
THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY MOISTURE LOOKS TO SET UP
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT DAY OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK VORT MAX WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING
AND MOISTURE CUTS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GFS DEPICTING STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
ENTERING WESTERN IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES NOT
IMPRESSIVE RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROUGH MOVE
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING CENTRAL IOWA WITH WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DECENT MIXING BY THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MAY
HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP EVEN FURTHER IF TREND CONTINUES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE. 850MB TEMPS BACK TO +16C BY MONDAY AND
EVEN WARMER BY TUESDAY AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...05/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ALONG AND JUST BEHIND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH NOTED ALONG KCSQ-KDSM-KIFA-KAUM LINE PER 11Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RAISE AT LEAST
A CATEGORY INTO AFTERNOON HEATING. ALSO EXPECT MORE SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. SHOULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY GO TO ALL
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.
HOWEVER LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY RE-
INTRODUCE AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS IN SPOTS BY EARLY THU MORNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
406 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY /...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRECIP TRENDS REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. CURRENT RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS PATCHY MAINLY KINEMATIC FORCING FROM ERN DAKOTAS
UPPER LOW SWD INTO IA. RAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CAPES A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH RESULTING IN SMALL UNFOCUSED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CYCLING UP AND DOWN AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST IN
THE MEAN FLOW. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS SCATTERED PRECIP
EVOLVES LATER IN THE DAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND
FORCING GRADUALLY EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIP REMAINING SE. HOWEVER SEVERAL HIGHER RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING RECENT HRRR...SPC SSEO ENSEMBLES AND 00Z
HIRES WRF RUNS ALL SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND FROM DEVELOPING
NRN KS MCV NEWD INTO IA AHEAD OF 1-3KM TROUGH. FEEL THIS CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED SO HAVE KEPT SCT WORDING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FAR
WEST AS I35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IN SPOTS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW WITH MLCAPES ONLY INCREASING TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WEAK NOW DUE TO ELEVATED NATURE
OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY HIGH...BY
THE TIME THE CONVECTION WOULD POTENTIALLY BECOME ROOTED LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON THOSE HIGHER VALUES SHOULD HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST WITH
OVERALL SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED. ONE
CONCERN WOULD BE BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES HOWEVER.
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SHALLOW MIXING AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED 0-3KM
CAPES. NST PARAMETER DOES RESPOND SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE DISORGANIZED SURFACE WIND FIELD AND
INSUFFICIENT ASSOCIATED VORTICITY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THIS WORDING INTO THE HWO...BUT SOMETHING TO
BE WATCHED DURING HEATING. PROBABLY PLENTY OF DRIFTING SCUD AT A
MINIMUM.
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM SW INTO N
CENTRAL IA AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
IT OVER PARTS OF NW IA. VISIBILITIES HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS OBS...BUT STILL MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG FOR A FEW HOURS
THERE. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY CONFIDENCE TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM MOS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS WERE FOCUSED ON THURSDAY MAX TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES...THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD A
NAM12/SREF AND THE HIRES-ARW AND NMM WRF THROUGH
THURSDAY...NAM/SREF FOR FRIDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND TAKES
THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY MOISTURE LOOKS TO SET UP
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT DAY OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK VORT MAX WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING
AND MOISTURE CUTS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GFS DEPICTING STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
ENTERING WESTERN IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES NOT
IMPRESSIVE RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROUGH MOVE
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING CENTRAL IOWA WITH WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DECENT MIXING BY THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MAY
HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP EVEN FURTHER IF TREND CONTINUES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE. 850MB TEMPS BACK TO +16C BY MONDAY AND
EVEN WARMER BY TUESDAY AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
MOISTURE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTING PRIMARILY
KALO...KDSM AND KOTM. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AND THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
322 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MCV HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
TAKING THE LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH
AS WELL AND OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AT 19Z. THE H5 UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DEPICTED OVER WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN THE PROFILER NETWORK.
SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
HRRR AS WELL AS THE RAP AND NAM BRING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING BY 04Z. SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. THURSDAYS HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDS.
CALM AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.
THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT/RISK FOR SEVERE WX APPEARS TO BE ON SAT- SAT
NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO APPROACH LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 850MB ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND RACE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE AREA
LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON SUN...AND A SFC BOUNDARY
COULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER LACK OF UPPER
FORCING AND RISING HTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP CHCS TO SCT AND
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.
BY MON AND NEXT TUES...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FLAT
RIDGE WITH 588-594 500MB HTS SO LOOK FOR HOTTER WX. THERE WILL BE
A SFC BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB INTO NW MO. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE ANYWHERE SOUTHWEST OF THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CAPPED. 850MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST NEAR
90 IF NOT WARMER SO WILL GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDS AND THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHC FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z-23Z THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF VFR DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER 23Z. WINDS NORTH NEAR 10 KTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10 KTS BY 02Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...CO
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
158 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THUNDERSTORM ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING AT THE
LATEST TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING GOOD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AT 16Z...IT EXTENDED FROM ANTHONY TO
CHANUTE. THE 13Z HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST BORDER OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA MOVING
DOWN AND FURTHER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THAT FAR OFF GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AREA. THAT
SAID...THINK THESE WILL BE DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY BEHIND THE FRONT OR SLOWLY RISING
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS BOTH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROF PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RENEWED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TRENDS IS LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
PROGGED OVER THE FRONT.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WAS MOVIGN ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO MISSOURI AS OF 19Z. VFR CLOUDS HAVE
BEENTHE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY...WITH MANY CEILINGS BEING 800 TO
1200 FEET.
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CEILING HEIGHTS OVER TIME. THIS VALIDATES THE
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION FORECASTS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
12Z NAM-WRF. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASING CEILINGS...WITH VFR
PREVAILING AFTER 06/02Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH A PREVAILING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 08 KNOTS BY 06/12Z.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN IS WHETHER FOG WILL OCCUR IN KCNU. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO FAVOR FOG USING THE CROSS OVER TECHNIQUE...HOWEVER
THAT CAN FAIL WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS...THINKING THAT STRATUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SINCE WE
ARE UNSURE WHICH WILL OCCUR...HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH 5SM BR
FOR KCNU FROM 08Z-12Z.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 55 76 56 79 / 20 10 0 10
HUTCHINSON 53 75 55 79 / 20 10 0 10
NEWTON 54 75 54 78 / 20 10 0 10
ELDORADO 54 75 54 77 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 77 56 79 / 30 10 0 10
RUSSELL 50 74 53 80 / 30 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 51 74 53 80 / 20 0 0 10
SALINA 52 75 56 79 / 30 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 53 75 55 79 / 20 10 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 58 77 56 78 / 30 10 0 0
CHANUTE 56 75 54 77 / 30 10 0 0
IOLA 56 75 54 76 / 30 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 57 76 55 77 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1101 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THUNDERSTORM ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING AT THE
LATEST TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING GOOD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AT 16Z...IT EXTENDED FROM ANTHONY TO
CHANUTE. THE 13Z HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST BORDER OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA MOVING
DOWN AND FURTHER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THAT FAR OFF GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AREA. THAT
SAID...THINK THESE WILL BE DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY BEHIND THE FRONT OR SLOWLY RISING
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS BOTH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROF PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RENEWED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TRENDS IS LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
PROGGED OVER THE FRONT.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LINE OF STRONG TSRA CAPABLE OF 35-40KT GUSTS CONTINUES TO STEADILY
MOVE E30KTS ACROSS SE KS. MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED ~2SM
+TSRA OCCURRING TIL ~14Z AT KCNU. TSRA SHUD EXIT SE KS ~14Z. CIGS
ARE GOING TO BE VERY PROBLEMATIC WITH 3-4 DECKS BEING REPORTED OVER
MOST AREAS RANGING FROM ~500FT TO ~10000KT. ALTHOUGH KRSL IS
REPORTING "BKN003" THE NEIGHBORING ASOS SITES HAVE REPORTED "SCT"
OR LESS. AS SUCH HAVE STARTED KRSL "VFR" BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
MORE TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S
ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THIS MORNING. THE EVENING & OVERNIGHT TAFS
WILL COVER THE LATTER PERIODS WHEN THE 18Z & 06/00Z ISSUANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 57 76 56 / 80 40 10 0
HUTCHINSON 74 55 76 54 / 70 40 10 0
NEWTON 70 56 75 55 / 80 40 10 0
ELDORADO 76 56 75 54 / 90 40 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 78 58 77 56 / 90 50 10 0
RUSSELL 67 52 76 54 / 50 30 10 0
GREAT BEND 69 53 76 54 / 50 30 10 0
SALINA 72 54 76 54 / 70 30 10 0
MCPHERSON 72 55 76 54 / 70 30 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 78 60 77 56 / 90 50 10 0
CHANUTE 74 58 76 55 / 90 40 10 0
IOLA 73 58 75 55 / 90 40 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 76 59 76 55 / 90 50 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING BRIEF SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER DAKOTAS
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NW KS. COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...WITH STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH
MLCAPE INCREASE ALONG FRONT RANGE AND UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE ALONG
PALMER ASSOCIATED WITH NE FLOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF OUR CWA LATER. CAPE/SHEER
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN.
ULTIMATELY WE MAY NOT ACTUALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 03Z WHEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AND DEEP MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
CWA...HOWEVER H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WED. NAM IS
SHOWING SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA/PV HEIGHT ANOMALIES TRACKING OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WED WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP DEPENDING ON THEIR
LOCATIONS. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING STILL SEEMS TO BE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF CWA...AND WHILE PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY I AM UNSURE ABOUT
AMOUNTS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z SO I ONLY LEFT
ISO THUNDER MENTION AFTER THAT POINT. LOCATION OF EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AND LOCATION OF ENHANCE AREA OF RAIN BANDS/SHOWER CLUSTERS
WILL DETERMINE BEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND THESE WILL BE MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED. AN ESTIMATE OF 0.10 TO 0.30" TOTAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE
CWA SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THIS EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH CAA OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...AND LINGERING PRECIP/THICK CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY NOT SEE HIGHS REACH 60F IF
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE VERIFIES AND PRECIP LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I LOWERED TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS STILL
ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NAM/MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT WED
JUN 5 2013
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PATTERN WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR SATURDAY WITH STRONGER 500 MB JET STAYING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER MANITOBA WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIDGE LOOKS TO STAY IN
PLACE FOR TUESDAY...BUT A NEW HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL TROUGH
PATTERN BEGINS TO ENTER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE LARGE TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO BE SLOWER MOVING...HOWEVER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS LOOK TO DEVELOP FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE RIDGE PATTERN. GFS
BRINGS SOME VORT MAXES THROUGH THE OUR IMMEDIATE REGION FOR
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET PRESENT FOR
SATURDAY OF AROUND 30 KNOTS...BUT STRONGEST JET OF THE PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE A NOCTURNAL JET OVERNIGHT MONDAY OF AROUND 50 KNOTS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
EAST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PASSING DRYLINE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. CAPE VALUES
ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG FOR THE GOODLAND AREA...BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1500 J/KG SHOULD BE PRESENT TO THE EAST AROUND THE
HILL CITY AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THE
ROCKIES...WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER STAYING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GOOD CAPE,
LIFTED INDICES, AND K INDICES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THETA E VALUES OF 350 K AND DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S.
SURFACE DRYLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SEVERE INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BUT THE EASTERN
AREAS COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE...AND HIGH
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AT KGLD...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY
WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL BE
GRADUALLY LOWERING AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS.
AT KMCK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THINK KMCK WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. LOWER CIGS
WILL TRY TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BUT NOT SURE THAT
WILL MATERIALIZE. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS CENTERED
AROUND SUNRISE...IMPROVING BY MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
242 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS
SOUTH TO HUTCHINSON APPEARS TO BE ATTEMPTING TO FORWARD PROPAGATE AS
OF 230 AM. HAVE SEEN DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD POOL
INTERFACE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH SOME EASTWARD ACCELERATION. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE SETUP
IS NOT IDEAL FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION...AND THE RAGGED REFLECTIVITY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTIVE EVIDENCE. HOWEVER...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX WEST OF
LINCOLN MAY BE IMPROVING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FORWARD PROPAGATION ON
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCV...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING DICKINSON...
MORRIS AND GEARY COUNTIES...AND WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE
EAST. THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT
IF A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM IS REALIZED...COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE
A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 60 MPH RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN
EXPECTED GIVEN CORFIDI VECTORS AT 40 KTS COUPLING WITH ANY LEADING
EDGE DOWNDRAFTS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER STORM STRUCTURE DEVELOP
BEFORE GETTING TOO EXCITED ABOUT MORE LONG LIVED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN SUCH A LOW INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING EASTERN KS AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW FROM ID INTO WY. AT THE SURFACE...OBS SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER AM NOT THAT OPTIMISTIC STORMS
WILL FORM. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG OVER CENTRAL KS WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AS NOTED IN THE MID
LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD OF 5 TO 10 KTS DOES NOT SUGGEST CONVERGENCE WITHIN
THE TROUGH AXIS IS VERY STRONG AND THE CU FIELD ON VISIBLE HAS NOT
SHOWN MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. IF SOMETHING WERE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
MAYBE NEAR MINNEAPOLIS. IF STORMS ARE UNABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING AND A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF CONVECTION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS AND MID RANGE MODELS
IS TO TRACK THE MCS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A SLOWER
AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE MCS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE
HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE NEB STATE
LINE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WITH PRECIP EVENTUALLY COMING TO
AN END THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE END OF
PRECIP IS LOW UNTIL THE ACTUALLY MCS FORMS AND WE GET A BETTER IDEA
OF WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH. BECAUSE OF THIS
HAVE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
WOLTERS
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY WANE WITH FRONT SINKING
SOUTH AND UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING IN. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIODS AGAIN LOOKING DRY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH MAINLY NORTHEAST LOCATIONS FOR POSSIBLE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
COOL MID LEVELS...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF NUISANCE-AT-MOST PRECIP. CLOUD COVER COULD
BE RATHER PREVALENT DESPITE DEEP BUT WEAK DOWNGLIDE AND WILL GO WITH
HIGHS A BIT BELOW MOS. MORE SUN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY THOUGH WEAKER
MIXING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH BEYOND THURSDAYS
EXPECTATIONS.
THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS TRENDING FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH MAIN
IMPACTS LIKELY COMING IN THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PERIODS.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY EARLY SUNDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES WERE REDUCED HERE.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THEIR RANGE...FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
SHARPEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT FOR WARM FRONT/WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIODS. THIS
IS UNDER A DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...BUT IT AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK/COOL. BY TUESDAY...AGAIN BARRING ANY
PERSISTENT DAYTIME CONVECTION...HIGHS SHOULD RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
SPREADING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY THE 12Z HOUR AND HAVE INCLUDED
THAT FOR SEVERAL HOURS /GENERALLY THROUGH 18Z / AT SITES. THINKING
AT THIS TIME IS THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP CIGS AT OR ABOVE MVFR AND BRING RAIN TO AN
END.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
238 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY EAST
EXHIBITING SOME BOWING/MARGINAL SEVERE WIND STRUCTURE AS IT
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION AND
SOME EVENTUAL TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE AREA AS IT MOVES/PROPAGATES EAST-SOUTHEAST THRU MID-MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL
RETAIN MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF DIMINISHING
POPS AND ENDING OF PRECIP CHANCES LOOKS ON TRACK LATE TONIGHT.
WHILE THE NATURE OF CONVECTION LENDS TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY AS THIS
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WILL
RETAIN MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING.
A COUPLE OF DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD DAYS BY JUNE STANDARDS IS
IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROF PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RENEWED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TRENDS IS LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
PROGGED OVER THE FRONT.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR WAS ACCURATE IN ITS PERSISTENT DEPICTION
OF A MCS MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH ITS HOURLY RUNS. USED THE LATE AFTERNOON RUNS TO HELP
FORECAST TIMING FOR THE MCS INTO THE IMPACTED TERMINALS AT THE 00Z
TAFS...AND LITTLE CHANGES WITH THAT TIMING FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
MAIN CHANGE WAS MOVING TEMPO GROUPS TO PREVAILING GROUPS. STILL
THINK OUTSIDE OF A HEAVY DOWNPOUR TO DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS...UPPER
END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE STORMS. THIS
MCS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS...IT HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING 50-60 MPH WINDS. HAVE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY
MORNING TO LATE MORNING. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT AFTER THIS AIRMASS
IS MODIFIED TONIGHT IS LOW.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 74 57 76 56 / 80 40 10 0
HUTCHINSON 73 55 76 54 / 70 40 10 0
NEWTON 72 56 75 55 / 80 40 10 0
ELDORADO 73 56 75 54 / 90 40 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 76 58 77 56 / 90 50 10 0
RUSSELL 70 52 76 54 / 50 30 10 0
GREAT BEND 70 53 76 54 / 50 30 10 0
SALINA 73 54 76 54 / 70 30 10 0
MCPHERSON 72 55 76 54 / 70 30 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 76 60 77 56 / 90 50 10 0
CHANUTE 75 58 76 55 / 90 40 10 0
IOLA 74 58 75 55 / 90 40 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 76 59 76 55 / 90 50 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1124 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING BRIEF SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER DAKOTAS
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NW KS. COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...WITH STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH
MLCAPE INCREASE ALONG FRONT RANGE AND UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE ALONG
PALMER ASSOCIATED WITH NE FLOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF OUR CWA LATER. CAPE/SHEER
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN.
ULTIMATELY WE MAY NOT ACTUALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 03Z WHEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AND DEEP MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
CWA...HOWEVER H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WED. NAM IS
SHOWING SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA/PV HEIGHT ANOMALIES TRACKING OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WED WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP DEPENDING ON THEIR
LOCATIONS. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING STILL SEEMS TO BE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF CWA...AND WHILE PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY I AM UNSURE ABOUT
AMOUNTS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z SO I ONLY LEFT
ISO THUNDER MENTION AFTER THAT POINT. LOCATION OF EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AND LOCATION OF ENHANCE AREA OF RAIN BANDS/SHOWER CLUSTERS
WILL DETERMINE BEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND THESE WILL BE MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED. AN ESTIMATE OF 0.10 TO 0.30" TOTAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE
CWA SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THIS EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH CAA OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...AND LINGERING PRECIP/THICK CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY NOT SEE HIGHS REACH 60F IF
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE VERIFIES AND PRECIP LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I LOWERED TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS STILL
ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NAM/MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT
STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. FLOW IN GENERAL IS VERY COMPLICATED AND
LITTERED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW.
AT MID LEVELS THE ECMWF WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
NAM/SREF/GFS. MODELS LOOK TO INITIALLY BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. THE UKMET AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DURING THE EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE EAST. DO EXPECT RAINFALL
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THIS EVENT ENDS. THE WINDS GO
LIGHT AND CLEARING DOES OCCUR. NOT A DEFINITE SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS BUT DO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
WEAK JET LIFT LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL LIFT IS AROUND. REMOTE CHANCE
THAT SOMETHING COULD FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN
COLORADO. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK. SO WILL KEEP IT
DRY.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SOME STRONGER UPPER JET LIFT COMES IN DURING
THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AIR MASS DRIES
AS HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE JET...WHICH MAY
ONLY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID
LEVEL LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE IS STILL NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. GUIDANCE STAYS
COOL AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WENT IN THAT DIRECTION.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO LOOKS TO BE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OUT
WEST. BEST LIFT LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THIS PERIOD. SO PULLED POPS
FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY AND CONFINED THEM TO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. WITH LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST AS SURFACE RIDGE PULLS
AWAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST. NOT THE BEST
DIRECTION FOR A WARMUP. SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SO THE CHANCE POPS THE CRH INIT POPS I WAS GIVEN LOOK
REASONABLE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF EVENTUALLY THEY WENT
HIGHER. AFTER THAT THE FORECAST GETS MORE UNCERTAIN. THROUGH
MONDAY THE MODELS SHOW THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES RISING TO
VARYING DEGREES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH IN A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ALSO DURING THIS TIME THE MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER...CAPPED AND DRIER
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH COOLER AND WETTER. ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST LEAVING THE AREA POSSIBLY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. SO MODEL OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPECT IN THE
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD AND TO ME LOOKS PROBLEMATIC TO TRY MAKE
ANY SENSE OR MAKE BIG CHANGES TO IT. SO CHOSE TO KEEP THE OVERALL POP
FIELD IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME WITH A CHANCE THAT EITHER EXTREME
COULD BECOME REALITY. ALSO KEPT REMAINING INHERITED INIT GRIDS
UNCHANGED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AT KGLD...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY
WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL BE
GRADUALLY LOWERING AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS.
AT KMCK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THINK KMCK WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. LOWER CIGS
WILL TRY TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BUT NOT SURE THAT
WILL MATERIALIZE. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS CENTERED
AROUND SUNRISE...IMPROVING BY MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1153 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH MCS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. SEVERE WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THE MCS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ALL NIGHT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS MCS AND EXPECT THE MAIN LINE TO APPROACH BETWEEN
06-07Z...BUT IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY EARLIER IF THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION SPEEDS UP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT THE SEVERE THREAT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN THREATS CONTINUE
TO BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
BILLINGS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A REMNANT MCV OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHILE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR A STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE ACTIVITY ALONG A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROPAGATE ESE
TOWARD THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS IN ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
AOA 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND WITH RECENT RAIN/WET SOILS AND SLOW
STORM PROPAGATION ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS ALONG THE NEOSHO BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR REMAINS LOW. LIMITED INSOLATION/LOW
LEVEL CAA IN THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN
SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...LOWS MAY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND TRENDED VALUES DOWN SLIGHTLY.
MCGUIRE
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL
EXIT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON SATURDAY...A SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR.
NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND REMAIN ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BOTH
NIGHTS. HAVE INDICATED SUCH WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE FORECAST.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR WAS ACCURATE IN ITS PERSISTENT DEPICTION
OF A MCS MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH ITS HOURLY RUNS. USED THE LATE AFTERNOON RUNS TO HELP
FORECAST TIMING FOR THE MCS INTO THE IMPACTED TERMINALS AT THE 00Z
TAFS...AND LITTLE CHANGES WITH THAT TIMING FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
MAIN CHANGE WAS MOVING TEMPO GROUPS TO PREVAILING GROUPS. STILL
THINK OUTSIDE OF A HEAVY DOWNPOUR TO DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS...UPPER
END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE STORMS. THIS
MCS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS...IT HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING 50-60 MPH WINDS. HAVE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY
MORNING TO LATE MORNING. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT AFTER THIS AIRMASS
IS MODIFIED TONIGHT IS LOW.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 65 73 57 76 / 90 70 30 10
HUTCHINSON 62 71 54 76 / 100 70 30 10
NEWTON 62 70 55 75 / 100 70 30 10
ELDORADO 63 72 55 75 / 70 70 30 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 75 58 76 / 70 70 40 10
RUSSELL 61 71 51 76 / 100 50 20 10
GREAT BEND 61 70 51 76 / 100 50 20 10
SALINA 62 72 54 76 / 100 60 20 10
MCPHERSON 62 71 54 76 / 100 60 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 65 77 62 76 / 60 70 40 10
CHANUTE 64 75 59 75 / 60 70 30 10
IOLA 64 74 58 74 / 60 70 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 65 76 61 75 / 60 70 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING EASTERN KS AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW FROM ID INTO WY. AT THE SURFACE...OBS SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER AM NOT THAT OPTIMISTIC STORMS
WILL FORM. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG OVER CENTRAL KS WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AS NOTED IN THE MID
LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD OF 5 TO 10 KTS DOES NOT SUGGEST CONVERGENCE WITHIN
THE TROUGH AXIS IS VERY STRONG AND THE CU FIELD ON VISIBLE HAS NOT
SHOWN MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. IF SOMETHING WERE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
MAYBE NEAR MINNEAPOLIS. IF STORMS ARE UNABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING AND A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF CONVECTION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS AND MID RANGE MODELS
IS TO TRACK THE MCS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A SLOWER
AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE MCS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE
HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE NEB STATE
LINE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WITH PRECIP EVENTUALLY COMING TO
AN END THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE END OF
PRECIP IS LOW UNTIL THE ACTUALLY MCS FORMS AND WE GET A BETTER IDEA
OF WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH. BECAUSE OF THIS
HAVE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
WOLTERS
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY WANE WITH FRONT SINKING
SOUTH AND UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING IN. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIODS AGAIN LOOKING DRY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH MAINLY NORTHEAST LOCATIONS FOR POSSIBLE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
COOL MID LEVELS...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF NUISANCE-AT-MOST PRECIP. CLOUD COVER COULD
BE RATHER PREVALENT DESPITE DEEP BUT WEAK DOWNGLIDE AND WILL GO WITH
HIGHS A BIT BELOW MOS. MORE SUN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY THOUGH WEAKER
MIXING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH BEYOND THURSDAYS
EXPECTATIONS.
THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS TRENDING FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH MAIN
IMPACTS LIKELY COMING IN THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PERIODS.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY EARLY SUNDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES WERE REDUCED HERE.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THEIR RANGE...FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
SHARPEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT FOR WARM FRONT/WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIODS. THIS
IS UNDER A DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...BUT IT AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK/COOL. BY TUESDAY...AGAIN BARRING ANY
PERSISTENT DAYTIME CONVECTION...HIGHS SHOULD RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
SPREADING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY THE 12Z HOUR AND HAVE INCLUDED
THAT FOR SEVERAL HOURS /GENERALLY THROUGH 18Z / AT SITES. THINKING
AT THIS TIME IS THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP CIGS AT OR ABOVE MVFR AND BRING RAIN TO AN
END.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1053 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT WILL NOT EXIT INTO VA UNTIL LATE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...IF
LOW AND MID CLOUDS THIN...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS POINT WITH THE
GRIDS FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT A SFC
BOUNDARY IS SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND ALSO GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND ON INTO MIDDLE TN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN KY. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME CIRRUS AROUND THE OUTER
EDGE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS ALSO WORKED NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OVERHEAD. THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLIP EAST AND SOUTHEAST
INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
EAST KY...THE RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE 21Z HRRR RUN HAS
SOME CONVECTION LINGERING OR POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING LATE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KY AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVED AND SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AN MCV DRIVEN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTED NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO OHIO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...
BUT APPEAR TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LEVELED CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
HELPED TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS IS ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY AND FACILITATING THE
GROWTH OF CONVECTION. EVEN SO...THE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NO MORE THAN SCATTERED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MEANING THAT MOST PLACES WILL MISS OUT ON A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN THAT MANY HAD HOPED FOR. THIS DESPITE THE HIGH PW AIR
MASS IN PLACE.
THE MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE MAIN
FEATURES ALOFT...WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THEY ALL NOW
AGREE THAT TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST
WITH NOTABLY THE NAM NOW ON BOARD...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER AT THE MID
LEVELS THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. SO WHILE THE PATTERN WITH ANDREA
IS SIMILAR... THE NAM IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND WILL AGAIN BE
DISCOUNTED. TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROLONGING LOW HEIGHTS OVER
THE REGION. A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THIS
TRANSITION AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED A
MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE NAM...FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE NIGHT. CAN/T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
FOR FRIDAY...THE INBOUND TROUGH AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST AS ANDREA MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE. DRIER
AIR AND AN END TO THE POP THREAT WILL WORK INTO THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON TAP FOR LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS KEPT THE FOG TO A MINIMUM LAST
NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME FOR TONIGHT...BUT FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...AS
THE CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT LATE.
STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT FOR WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FIRST
24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL USED BEYOND THAT AND ALSO FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES. AGAIN...DID NOT MAKE MANY TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A MOS BLEND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
KENTUCKY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS A 500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHEAR
OUT AND FLATTEN /LOSE STRENGTH/. BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE REGION...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUING TO WASH OUT AND DRYING/IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN KY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PULL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
GULF AND UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPECT TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...SO
DO EXPECT SOME CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME MID LEVEL CU TO CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AND JET FORCING CONTINUES NE UP THE COASTLINE. IN
MIDST OF COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR AROUND
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME...500MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN
AND QUICKLY DROP SEWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL
SET UP ACROSS KY BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH
SRLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE PULLING WARM MOIST AIR OUT OF THE GULF
AND WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE OTHER HAND
SHOWS WINDS IN A MORE W TO NWRLY FASHION...INDICATING A GOOD SHEERED
ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO THE UPPER LEVELS. WITH A BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT WITH WARM MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED IN...WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY NIGHT...INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO TREK TO THE NE AND BEST MOISTURE/COLD FRONT GETS PULLED
FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS GO INTO QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAST THIS PROGRESSION NEWRD TAKES PLACE AND
HOW LONG RESULTING MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN ERN KY...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH CONSENSUS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL HAVE
TAKEN HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS...MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE. AS DRIER AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION...ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES WILL CEASE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS BREAK IN THE
MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES
NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS IN SUCH
DISAGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WILL LEAN ON
MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO PAST SUNSET AT
THE TAF SITES AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FOG
OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE TAF SITES...BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO KEEP CONDITIONS
FALLING AS LOW AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. LAMP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONDITIONS FALLING TO NEAR...IF NOT BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT OPTED TO TREND IN A PERIOD
OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 7Z AND 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
803 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT A SFC
BOUNDARY IS SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND ALSO GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND ON INTO MIDDLE TN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN KY. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME CIRRUS AROUND THE OUTER
EDGE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS ALSO WORKED NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OVERHEAD. THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLIP EAST AND SOUTHEAST
INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
EAST KY...THE RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE 21Z HRRR RUN HAS
SOME CONVECTION LINGERING OR POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING LATE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KY AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVED AND SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AN MCV DRIVEN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTED NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO OHIO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...
BUT APPEAR TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LEVELED CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
HELPED TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS IS ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY AND FACILITATING THE
GROWTH OF CONVECTION. EVEN SO...THE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NO MORE THAN SCATTERED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MEANING THAT MOST PLACES WILL MISS OUT ON A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN THAT MANY HAD HOPED FOR. THIS DESPITE THE HIGH PW AIR
MASS IN PLACE.
THE MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE MAIN
FEATURES ALOFT...WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THEY ALL NOW
AGREE THAT TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST
WITH NOTABLY THE NAM NOW ON BOARD...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER AT THE MID
LEVELS THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. SO WHILE THE PATTERN WITH ANDREA
IS SIMILAR... THE NAM IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND WILL AGAIN BE
DISCOUNTED. TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROLONGING LOW HEIGHTS OVER
THE REGION. A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THIS
TRANSITION AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED A
MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE NAM...FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE NIGHT. CAN/T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
FOR FRIDAY...THE INBOUND TROUGH AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST AS ANDREA MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE. DRIER
AIR AND AN END TO THE POP THREAT WILL WORK INTO THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON TAP FOR LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS KEPT THE FOG TO A MINIMUM LAST
NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME FOR TONIGHT...BUT FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...AS
THE CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT LATE.
STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT FOR WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FIRST
24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL USED BEYOND THAT AND ALSO FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES. AGAIN...DID NOT MAKE MANY TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A MOS BLEND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
KENTUCKY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS A 500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHEAR
OUT AND FLATTEN /LOSE STRENGTH/. BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE REGION...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUING TO WASH OUT AND DRYING/IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN KY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PULL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
GULF AND UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPECT TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...SO
DO EXPECT SOME CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME MID LEVEL CU TO CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AND JET FORCING CONTINUES NE UP THE COASTLINE. IN
MIDST OF COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR AROUND
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME...500MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN
AND QUICKLY DROP SEWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL
SET UP ACROSS KY BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH
SRLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE PULLING WARM MOIST AIR OUT OF THE GULF
AND WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE OTHER HAND
SHOWS WINDS IN A MORE W TO NWRLY FASHION...INDICATING A GOOD SHEERED
ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO THE UPPER LEVELS. WITH A BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT WITH WARM MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED IN...WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY NIGHT...INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO TREK TO THE NE AND BEST MOISTURE/COLD FRONT GETS PULLED
FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS GO INTO QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAST THIS PROGRESSION NEWRD TAKES PLACE AND
HOW LONG RESULTING MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN ERN KY...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH CONSENSUS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL HAVE
TAKEN HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS...MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE. AS DRIER AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION...ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES WILL CEASE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS BREAK IN THE
MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES
NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS IN SUCH
DISAGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WILL LEAN ON
MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO PAST SUNSET AT
THE TAF SITES AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FOG
OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE TAF SITES...BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO KEEP CONDITIONS
FALLING AS LOW AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. LAMP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONDITIONS FALLING TO NEAR...IF NOT BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT OPTED TO TREND IN A PERIOD
OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 7Z AND 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO HONE IN ON THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SPREADING NORTHEAST IN OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DID ALSO MATCH UP THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS FOR T/TD AND SKY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A NEW ZFP WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE INBOUND
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WARM AND MOIST AIR THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
TODAY. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY
AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND NOON AND INCREASING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARLIEST IN THE SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS
ON AN OUTFLOW OR AS A CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. ADDITIONAL...MORE AIR MASS STYLE CONVECTION...LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PEAK HEATING. EXPECT THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA WITH TIME. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND ADJUST THEIR TIMING INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATED SET OF
ZONES AND NEW HWO HAS BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE ACTIVITY HAS FIRED IN AN AREA
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 63 OR HIGHER. THIS MAY BE THE MAGIC
NUMBER WE ARE LOOKING FOR AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES TODAY. AREAS IN
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR GETTING DEWPOINTS IN
THIS BALL PARK...SO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE SOUTH. THINGS ARE STARTING TO LOOK A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE FURTHER NORTH AS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER
40S. A NEARLY 15 POINT SWING IN DEWPOINTS WILL BE HARD TO MANAGE
DURING THE DAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THAT THREAT WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. FOR NOW...WILL ROLL WITH THE POPS WE HAVE AND GO FROM
THERE. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW STARTING TO DEPART TO OUR EAST AND HAS KEPT
OUR WEATHER VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL DEPART AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AFTER
DAYBREAK. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...MODELS SEEM TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY. THIS MAY KEEP POTENTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE MORE LIMITED.
PRESENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS
WAVE. WITH INSTABILITY IN QUESTION TODAY...KEPT POPS AT 40 OR BELOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STORMS
MAY NOT FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING AS IT TAKES MOST OF THE DAY FOR SFC MOISTURE TO RECOVER. BASE
ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY LOOKING
MORE SPORADIC TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY INSTABILITY
WHICH DEVELOPS.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CERTAINLY LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN
24 HOURS AGO...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN INSTABILITY AND
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF DECENT RAINFALL
LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS THU NITE WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST. DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A
TROPICAL LOW INTO GA THAT SHOWS UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
GFS ONLY HINTS AT A MINOR VORTICITY DISTURBANCE IN THIS AREA. IN ANY
CASE THE LONG WAVE TROF IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES PASS THRU BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY MON NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
TROF TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOLDS MORE RAIN INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THAN THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONGER TROPICAL LOW OVER NRN FLA WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER LOW AND PLACES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU NIGHT.
THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY END SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND THE TROPICAL LOW IS SWEPT OFF THE NEW ENG COAST.
THE GOOD WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST TOO LONG AS THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
ERN KY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THRU SRN CANADA AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE LOWER TENN VALLEY. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER BIT OF DRY WEATHER FOR WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM A COOL MID
70S ON FRI TO A WARM LOWER 80S FOR SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FIRST BATCH OF THESE ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY ATTM WITH CIGS AND VIS BRIEFLY DROPPING
TO IFR/MVFR AS THE STORMS PASS. AS THIS FIRST SURGE DIES DOWN LATER
THIS EVENING...THE ADDED MOISTURE AND SOME BREAKS/THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME OCCASIONAL VIS REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT
FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1250 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO HONE IN ON THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SPREADING NORTHEAST IN OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DID ALSO MATCH UP THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS FOR T/TD AND SKY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A NEW ZFP WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE INBOUND
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WARM AND MOIST AIR THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
TODAY. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY
AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND NOON AND INCREASING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARLIEST IN THE SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS
ON AN OUTFLOW OR AS A CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. ADDITIONAL...MORE AIR MASS STYLE CONVECTION...LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PEAK HEATING. EXPECT THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA WITH TIME. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND ADJUST THEIR TIMING INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATED SET OF
ZONES AND NEW HWO HAS BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE ACTIVITY HAS FIRED IN AN AREA
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 63 OR HIGHER. THIS MAY BE THE MAGIC
NUMBER WE ARE LOOKING FOR AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES TODAY. AREAS IN
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR GETTING DEWPOINTS IN
THIS BALL PARK...SO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE SOUTH. THINGS ARE STARTING TO LOOK A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE FURTHER NORTH AS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER
40S. A NEARLY 15 POINT SWING IN DEWPOINTS WILL BE HARD TO MANAGE
DURING THE DAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THAT THREAT WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. FOR NOW...WILL ROLL WITH THE POPS WE HAVE AND GO FROM
THERE. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW STARTING TO DEPART TO OUR EAST AND HAS KEPT
OUR WEATHER VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL DEPART AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AFTER
DAYBREAK. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...MODELS SEEM TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY. THIS MAY KEEP POTENTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE MORE LIMITED.
PRESENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS
WAVE. WITH INSTABILITY IN QUESTION TODAY...KEPT POPS AT 40 OR BELOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STORMS
MAY NOT FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING AS IT TAKES MOST OF THE DAY FOR SFC MOISTURE TO RECOVER. BASE
ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY LOOKING
MORE SPORADIC TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY INSTABILITY
WHICH DEVELOPS.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CERTAINLY LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN
24 HOURS AGO...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN INSTABILITY AND
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF DECENT RAINFALL
LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS THU NITE WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST. DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A
TROPICAL LOW INTO GA THAT SHOWS UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
GFS ONLY HINTS AT A MINOR VORTICITY DISTURBANCE IN THIS AREA. IN ANY
CASE THE LONG WAVE TROF IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES PASS THRU BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY MON NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
TROF TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOLDS MORE RAIN INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THAN THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONGER TROPICAL LOW OVER NRN FLA WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER LOW AND PLACES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU NIGHT.
THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY END SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND THE TROPICAL LOW IS SWEPT OFF THE NEW ENG COAST.
THE GOOD WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST TOO LONG AS THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
ERN KY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THRU SRN CANADA AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE LOWER TENN VALLEY. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER BIT OF DRY WEATHER FOR WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM A COOL MID
70S ON FRI TO A WARM LOWER 80S FOR SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAS TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY. AFTER 18Z...SOME
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AND HANDLED THIS WITH VCTS AT THIS
POINT. WHERE THIS OCCURRED VIS AND OR CIGS MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS IFR
FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
940 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE INBOUND
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WARM AND MOIST AIR THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
TODAY. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY
AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND NOON AND INCREASING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARLIEST IN THE SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS
ON AN OUTFLOW OR AS A CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. ADDITIONAL...MORE AIR MASS STYLE CONVECTION...LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PEAK HEATING. EXPECT THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA WITH TIME. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND ADJUST THEIR TIMING INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATED SET OF
ZONES AND NEW HWO HAS BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE ACTIVITY HAS FIRED IN AN AREA
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 63 OR HIGHER. THIS MAY BE THE MAGIC
NUMBER WE ARE LOOKING FOR AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES TODAY. AREAS IN
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR GETTING DEWPOINTS IN
THIS BALL PARK...SO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE SOUTH. THINGS ARE STARTING TO LOOK A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE FURTHER NORTH AS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER
40S. A NEARLY 15 POINT SWING IN DEWPOINTS WILL BE HARD TO MANAGE
DURING THE DAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THAT THREAT WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. FOR NOW...WILL ROLL WITH THE POPS WE HAVE AND GO FROM
THERE. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW STARTING TO DEPART TO OUR EAST AND HAS KEPT
OUR WEATHER VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL DEPART AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AFTER
DAYBREAK. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...MODELS SEEM TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY. THIS MAY KEEP POTENTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE MORE LIMITED.
PRESENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS
WAVE. WITH INSTABILITY IN QUESTION TODAY...KEPT POPS AT 40 OR BELOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STORMS
MAY NOT FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING AS IT TAKES MOST OF THE DAY FOR SFC MOISTURE TO RECOVER. BASE
ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY LOOKING
MORE SPORADIC TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY INSTABILITY
WHICH DEVELOPS.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CERTAINLY LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN
24 HOURS AGO...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN INSTABILITY AND
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF DECENT RAINFALL
LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS THU NITE WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST. DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A
TROPICAL LOW INTO GA THAT SHOWS UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
GFS ONLY HINTS AT A MINOR VORTICITY DISTURBANCE IN THIS AREA. IN ANY
CASE THE LONG WAVE TROF IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES PASS THRU BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY MON NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
TROF TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOLDS MORE RAIN INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THAN THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONGER TROPICAL LOW OVER NRN FLA WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER LOW AND PLACES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU NIGHT.
THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY END SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND THE TROPICAL LOW IS SWEPT OFF THE NEW ENG COAST.
THE GOOD WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST TOO LONG AS THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
ERN KY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THRU SRN CANADA AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE LOWER TENN VALLEY. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER BIT OF DRY WEATHER FOR WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM A COOL MID
70S ON FRI TO A WARM LOWER 80S FOR SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAS TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY. AFTER 18Z...SOME
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AND HANDLED THIS WITH VCTS AT THIS
POINT. WHERE THIS OCCURRED VIS AND OR CIGS MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS IFR
FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE ACTIVITY HAS FIRED IN AN AREA
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 63 OR HIGHER. THIS MAY BE THE MAGIC
NUMBER WE ARE LOOKING FOR AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES TODAY. AREAS IN
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR GETTING DEWPOINTS IN
THIS BALL PARK...SO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE SOUTH. THINGS ARE STARTING TO LOOK A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE FURTHER NORTH AS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER
40S. A NEARLY 15 POINT SWING IN DEWPOINTS WILL BE HARD TO MANAGE
DURING THE DAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THAT THREAT WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. FOR NOW...WILL ROLE WITH THE POPS WE HAVE AND GO FROM
THERE. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW STARTING TO DEPART TO OUR EAST AND HAS KEPT
OUR WEATHER VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL DEPART AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AFTER
DAYBREAK. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...MODELS SEEM TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY. THIS MAY KEEP POTENTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE MORE LIMITED.
PRESENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS
WAVE. WITH INSTABILITY IN QUESTION TODAY...KEPT POPS AT 40 OR BELOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STORMS
MAY NOT FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING AS IT TAKES MOST OF THE DAY FOR SFC MOISTURE TO RECOVER. BASE
ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY LOOKING
MORE SPORADIC TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY INSTABILITY
WHICH DEVELOPS.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CERTAINLY LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN
24 HOURS AGO...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN INSTABILITY AND
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF DECENT RAINFALL
LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS THU NITE WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST. DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A
TROPICAL LOW INTO GA THAT SHOWS UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
GFS ONLY HINTS AT A MINOR VORTICITY DISTURBANCE IN THIS AREA. IN ANY
CASE THE LONG WAVE TROF IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES PASS THRU BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY MON NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
TROF TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOLDS MORE RAIN INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THAN THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONGER TROPICAL LOW OVER NRN FLA WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER LOW AND PLACES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU NIGHT.
THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY END SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND THE TROPICAL LOW IS SWEPT OFF THE NEW ENG COAST.
THE GOOD WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST TOO LONG AS THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
ERN KY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THRU SRN CANADA AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE LOWER TENN VALLEY. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER BIT OF DRY WEATHER FOR WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM A COOL MID
70S ON FRI TO A WARM LOWER 80S FOR SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAS TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY. AFTER 18Z...SOME
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AND HANDLED THIS WITH VCTS AT THIS
POINT. WHERE THIS OCCURRED VIS AND OR CIGS MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS IFR
FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW STARTING TO DEPART TO OUR EAST AND HAS KEPT
OUR WEATHER VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL DEPART AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AFTER
DAYBREAK. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...MODELS SEEM TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY. THIS MAY KEEP POTENTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE MORE LIMITED.
PRESENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS
WAVE. WITH INSTABILITY IN QUESTION TODAY...KEPT POPS AT 40 OR BELOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STORMS
MAY NOT FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING AS IT TAKES MOST OF THE DAY FOR SFC MOISTURE TO RECOVER. BASE
ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY LOOKING
MORE SPORADIC TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY INSTABILITY
WHICH DEVELOPS.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CERTAINLY LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN
24 HOURS AGO...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN INSTABILITY AND
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF DECENT RAINFALL
LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS THU NITE WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST. DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A
TROPICAL LOW INTO GA THAT SHOWS UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
GFS ONLY HINTS AT A MINOR VORTICITY DISTURBANCE IN THIS AREA. IN ANY
CASE THE LONG WAVE TROF IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES PASS THRU BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY MON NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
TROF TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOLDS MORE RAIN INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THAN THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONGER TROPICAL LOW OVER NRN FLA WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER LOW AND PLACES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU NIGHT.
THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY END SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND THE TROPICAL LOW IS SWEPT OFF THE NEW ENG COAST.
THE GOOD WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST TOO LONG AS THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
ERN KY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THRU SRN CANADA AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE LOWER TENN VALLEY. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER BIT OF DRY WEATHER FOR WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM A COOL MID
70S ON FRI TO A WARM LOWER 80S FOR SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAS TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. VALLEY FOG WITH IFR WILL
AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT WILL NOT IMPACT TAF SITES. AFTER 15Z...AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z...SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AND HANDLED THIS
WITH VCTS AT THIS POINT. WHERE THIS OCCURRED VIS AND OR CIGS MAY FALL
TO AS LOW AS IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM
HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. ALOFT...FLOW IS WESTERLY
WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES
HAD BEEN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT AN AREA OF BKN/OVC CIGS AROUND 5 K FT
HAS PUSHED INTO NW CORNER OF THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 IS REALLY THE
ONLY MODEL DOING A GOOD JOB W/ THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SO WILL FOLLOW
CLOSE TO THIS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HRS TODAY..PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO THE N/W OF RICHMOND AND MOSTLY CLEAR S/E. FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...SKIES AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE EARLIER CLOUDS MIX OUT SOMEWHAT.
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE GENERATING PRECIP/QPF ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT W/ ESE FLOW DO NOT EXPECT
THIS TO MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE AKQ CWA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUE...MODEST WARMING ALOFT OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
MORE CLOUDS THAN ON TUE. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACRS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE MID-UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. RH REMAINS
COMFORTABLE W/ DEW PTS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. FOR TONIGHT...THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY GETS SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES
EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS AS MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE (ESP W OF I-95) WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY. WARMER W/ LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT W/ THIS PERIOD...NAM IS NEARLY 500
MILES WEST AND SLOWER WITH ITS SOLUTION THAN THE FASTER GFS.
LATEST 00Z/05 ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT HAS BEEN
MOST CONSISTENT AND GENLY HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THU...BUT BULK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE STILL STAYS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE 2
LOWS PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE FROM THE GULF AND THE OTHER FROM THE
OH VALLEY HAVE YET TO PHASE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS/40-50% OVER
THE FAR WEST AND IN INTERIOR NE NC...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER
ABOUT A 30% POP BY AFTN. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER SE FLOW SO
HAVE DROPPED CHC FOR TSTMS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE DESPITE THE
INCREASE IN POPS. HIGHS GENLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AGAIN.
BY THU NIGHT....THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
PHASE W/ THE GULF SYSTEM...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING
PULLED UP INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT LIKELY POPS/60% THU NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AS
DEW PTS CLIMB TO 65-70...AND THIS IS ABOUT WHAT MIN TEMPS WILL BE.
LOOKING RATHER WET..PARTICULARLY ON FRI...AS THE LO PRES AREAS
APPROACH AND PUSH INTO SE VA BY 00Z/SAT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND CHC OF TSTMS. PWATS ARE FCST TO CLIMB
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ON FRI...THUS HEAVY DOWNPOURS/RAINS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OVR THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRI IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR-MID
80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING PCPN CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST, AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING UPR TROUGH, WHICH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY FRI-SAT. USED A SFC LOW TRACK BASED OFF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE (04/00Z) AND THE 12Z ECMWF, WHICH APPEARED TO BE A MIDDLE
GROUND SOLUTION BETWEEN THE PROGRESSIVE GFS (WHICH PUSHES MAJORITY
OF PCPN OFFSHORE) AND THE SLOWER OPERATIONAL NAM. USING THIS BLEND,
THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N-NE, ASCENDING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM A POSITION ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AT 00Z(8PM)/SAT...TO A
POSITION JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY AFTN. AFTER THE
AFOREMENTIONED WET DAY ON FRIDAY, EXPECT PCPN TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN
FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH RETAINED LIKELY
POP OVER THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH SAT MORNING.
RAIN CHCS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AS A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE FROM THE CAROLINAS. THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE INTERIM, AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION EXPECT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SCT AFTN/ERY EVENING SHRAS/TSTMS
EACH DAY FROM SAT-MON. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS BY TUESDAY, AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL IS VERY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR
MAXIMA, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PUSH ABOVE CLIMO READINGS DURING THE
PERIOD. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE M-U80S, ERY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S
TO NR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LGT/CALM THRU THE ERLY MORNG HRS. WINDS BCM MAINLY FROM THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND A FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF PCPN...DEVELOPING
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MAINLY MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF IFR
IN HEAVIER PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...
LGT AND VRB WNDS OVER AREA WTRS THIS MORNG WITH SFC HI PRES IN THE
VICINITY. THE HI CENTERS NE OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...LEADING TO 5-10
KT ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS
OVER CSTL WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH THE HI
SLIDING EWRD.
WNDS BCM SERLY ON THU AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LO PRES OVER THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ATTM...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LT THU-FRI BEFORE PUSHING TOWARDS THE NJ COAST SAT MORNG. AS
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THAT SCA
CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY FRI...CONTINUING INTO SAT. WNDS WILL
RAMP BACK DOWN QUICKLY AS THE LO ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA SAT MORNG...WITH WNDS VEERING BACK AROUND TO THE S-SW BEHIND
THE SYSTEM UNTIL THE NEXT (WEAK) COOL FRONT APPROACHES BY TUE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1222 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY FOR NOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE EARLIER
RAIN SHOWERS...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DIMINISHED UPPER
LEVEL FORCING HAS CAUSED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH.
UPSTREAM HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN FAR EASTERN IOWA. THIS HAS PRODUCED ANOTHER SWATH OF
RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WERE CROSSING SRN WISCONSIN AND MAINLY CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE WERE MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST...AND WILL LIKELY
HOLD TOGETHER NEARER THE WAVE...BUT THE LEADING EDGE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO ERODE TO SOME DEGREE WITHIN WEAK SUBSIDENCE/SHALLOW
RIDGING OVER US. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING THIS. NO FORM OF
MODEL GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF THE LATEST RUC IS DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
DEPICTING THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTATIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
TODAY. NEXT 12HRS OR SO WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...COUPLED WITH THE RUC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED AS EXPECTED
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MODEST BUT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORT WAVE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST NAM IS POINTING TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. A LOOK AT
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS CONFIRMS THIS IDEA...SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THRU
WISCONSIN TOWARD AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32. THUS HAVE
EXTENDING CHANCE POPS WITHIN THIS AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY CLOUDY AND CALM BALANCE TO THE
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S AS OPPOSED TO THE
30S AND AREAS OF FROST WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF M-32 THIS EVENING AS A MODEST BUT MOISTURE-STARVED WAVE RIDES
EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL LWR MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL EXIT OUR CWA
BY LATE EVENING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOCUSING
BACK TO OUR WEST OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. NO POP/WX ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW QUICKLY OUR CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP
DISSIPATES AS WE HEAD THRU THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CLOUDS HAVE BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF
WESTERN LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALL DECENT FORCING WELL
UPSTAIRS...WITH A COMPLETE DEARTH OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOW
LEVELS. SOME SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY WHERE "DEEPER MOISTURE"
AND LEADING EDGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ARE MAXIMIZED. ELSEWHERE...DRY
LOW LEVELS HAVE WON OUT...WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING WELL UP INTO
THE 60S. BETTER RAINS FURTHER WEST INTO WISCONSIN WHERE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE BETTER JUXTAPOSED...WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOWING A SLOW EAST PROGRESSION OF SUCH. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON
THE ABOVE...SPECIFICALLY ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
LEAD WAVE ROTATES RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOCUSING BACK WEST WITH TIME AHEAD OF
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY. OVERHEAD MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS THETA-E RIDGING NOSES INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...FORCING NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH BETTER LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL ADVECTION REMAINING UPSTREAM.
DEVELOPMENT OF DRY LIGHT EAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS
DRY...SUGGESTING A STRUGGLE FOR ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE.
KINDA ENVISION SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING A TOUCH
FURTHER EAST THIS EVENING WITH LEAD WAVE...WITH INCREASINGLY DRY
LOW LEVELS AND LOSS OF DYNAMICS FOCUSING RAINS BACK WEST WITH TIME.
INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY WELL TRENDED THIS DIRECTION...AND HAVE
MADE JUST SOME COSMETIC CHANGES. ABOVE CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAKING THE PRECIP FORECAST A LOW CONFIDENCE ENDEAVOR.
FORCING TRIES TO RATCHET UP SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEED GOING NOWHERE FAST...HOWEVER...
AND BETTER THETA-E GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLIP SOUTH WITH TIME. DESPITE
GUIDANCE PERSISTENCE OF RATHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINS...JUST
RELUCTANT TO HEAD THAT DIRECTION GIVEN ABOVE. DRY AIR FEED DEEPEST
AS ONE GOES NORTH...LIKELY KEEPING EASTERN UPPER PRETTY MUCH DRY
THROUGH THE DURATION. FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES DEFINITELY PLAUSIBLE...BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT TO REV POPS
UP JUST YET. EITHER WAY...RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...LIKELY WELL
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS REMAIN A TOUCH OF THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMO...WITH READING GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
RECENT TRENDS: TEMPERATURES: ROLLER COASTER LAST 7 DAYS ROUGHLY
AVERAGED OUT NEAR NORMAL...A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITATION/HYDROLOGY: FAIRLY WET PERIOD OVER LAST WEEK...
PARTICULARLY ALONG US-10 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIPITATION WAS GREATER
THAN 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MONTH OF MAY WAS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SAVE FOR A FEW DRIER POCKETS...ABOUT
50-100 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.. 30 DAY
STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL
MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (TOP 1 METER)...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAGINAW
RIVER BASIN. NORTHERN MICHIGAN RIVERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING FAIRLY
STEADY OVER PAST 5 DAYS AS THINGS HAVE DRIED OUT A BIT WITH CURRENT
COOL SPELL...STREAMFLOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. GREAT LAKES: WATER
TEMPERATURES 3-5C LAKE SUPERIOR (4-5C WHITEFISH BAY)...4-6C OFFSHORE
LAKE MICHIGAN (7-9C NEARSHORE)...4-6C NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WARMER
NEARSHORE SOUTH OF THUNDER BAY INTO SAGINAW BAY WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES 15-20C.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: FOUR WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN
PLACE...SMALL SCALE REX BLOCKING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA
FLANKED BY TROUGHING OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. ENERGY MAKING UP SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPSTREAM
REX BLOCK WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MEAN TROUGHING REMAINING INTO NEXT
WEEK WHILE RIDGING EXPANDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PLAINS. NOT A WARM LOOKING PATTERN FOR THE GREAT LAKES BY ANY MEANS
FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST.
A COUPLE PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AS PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL WAVE
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND WEAKER WAVE ON
FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING
THE FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE
MID LEVELS AND PRETTY SPOTTY...SO PLAN TO BE PRETTY GENERIC WITH THE
CHANCE POP DISTRIBUTION AND NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT THAT MUCH
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT EAST OF I-75. BEST RAIN CHANCE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAY END UP BEING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA (ALONG/NORTH
OF THE VORTICITY CENTER TRACK)...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD
DECK ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. OVERALL DRYING TREND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS...AND FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY
DECENT DAY AS MAIN ACTIVITY HEADS TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH
NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BETWEEN DEVELOPING EAST COAST LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH A BIT WARMER FRIDAY WITH MORE
SUN/DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): WEEKEND STARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HANGING ON ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WHILE LOW
PRESSURE RIDES UP THE EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL GFS
TRENDING MUCH STRONGER/QUICKER WITH UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT (COMES THROUGH LATER SUNDAY)...LATE ARRIVING 04/12Z ECMWF DIGS
STRONGER ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES DEEPER MOISTURE INTO
MICHIGAN SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THIS...BUT
EITHER WAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
LOWER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE STARTING THE NEW
TUESDAY FORECAST OUT DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DESPITE A COUPLE OF EXPECTED PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE THE CULPRIT...TRACKING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
LOOKS LIKE THE RATHER QUIET MARINE WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH
VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT GIVING WAY TO LIGHT EAST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY.
EAST FLOW CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
CURRENT PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUB SCA WINDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AT INL HIB
BRD AND DLH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT 3-4 SM FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AROUND 03Z. WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG AT HYR LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A WEAK WAVE WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW AGAINST AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. WEAK
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS STILL OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ONE
MOVES OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO THE CWA BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
SOUTH AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER OUR
EASTERN WISCONSIN ZONES. WE EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO END
LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AND HAVE
A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THE RAP SHOWS MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS A BIT HIGHER WILL REMAIN THOUGH. IF
SKIES CAN CLEAR...WHICH THEY WILL IN SPOTS IF ONLY
BRIEFLY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING...AND WE
DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE MID THIRTIES TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION SOME
PATCHY FROST THERE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
CLOUD TRENDS AND ADJUST TEMPS DOWN IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS.
WE DO EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
FROM TWO HARBORS DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS. THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FURTHER...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE UPPER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE HIGH RES
RUNS...SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WE WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
30 PERCENT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER FOR MANY
AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THE GRADIENT DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AS
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER DEPARTING UPPER TROF/COLD POOL
SATURDAY AFTN. INCLUDED SLT CHC THUNDER SWRN EDGE OF CWA BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT REGARD. FCST THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEKEND REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ALTHOUGH MDL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING SYSTEM WILL MOVE
FARTHER SOUTH OF CWA WITH LESS CHANCE OF PRECIP. WILL STILL CARRY
CHANCE RAIN SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY GEM IS PUSHING PRECIP
FARTHER NORTH. GFS/ECMWF TRENDING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. UPPER RIDGING
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK SO A QUIET PATTERN TRIES TO EMERGE.
ALLBLEND BRINGS POPS BACK INTO CWA TUES NIGHT HOWEVER DETERMINISTIC
CONSENSUS IS THAT MSTR TRANSPORT DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. MID
LVL SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS WED/EARLY THURSDAY SO POPS APPEAR
TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPPER TROF COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. KDLH WILL HAVE SLOWER IMPROVEMENT INITIALLY AS LO
LVL NE FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINES WITH TERRAIN LIFT TO
ENHANCE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE ON LOWER CLGS/VIS AT KDLH DUE
TO BR/FG VERY LOW. WILL USE TEMPO FOR NOW GIVEN LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY OF SHORT TERM CHANGES TODAY. GUIDANCE NOT CONSISTENT
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL OF BR/FG REDEVELOPMENT SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
IN PREVAILING.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 40 64 44 63 / 20 30 20 20
INL 40 67 45 71 / 10 30 10 20
BRD 43 67 47 70 / 10 30 10 30
HYR 44 67 44 71 / 30 30 20 20
ASX 41 63 42 67 / 30 30 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...TENTINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS STILL OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ONE
MOVES OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO THE CWA BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
SOUTH AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER OUR
EASTERN WISCONSIN ZONES. WE EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO END
LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AND HAVE
A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THE RAP SHOWS MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS A BIT HIGHER WILL REMAIN THOUGH. IF
SKIES CAN CLEAR...WHICH THEY WILL IN SPOTS IF ONLY
BRIEFLY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING...AND WE
DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE MID THIRTIES TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION SOME
PATCHY FROST THERE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
CLOUD TRENDS AND ADJUST TEMPS DOWN IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS.
WE DO EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
FROM TWO HARBORS DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS. THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FURTHER...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE UPPER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE HIGH RES
RUNS...SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WE WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
30 PERCENT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER FOR MANY
AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THE GRADIENT DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AS
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER DEPARTING UPPER TROF/COLD POOL
SATURDAY AFTN. INCLUDED SLT CHC THUNDER SWRN EDGE OF CWA BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT REGARD. FCST THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEKEND REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ALTHOUGH MDL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING SYSTEM WILL MOVE
FARTHER SOUTH OF CWA WITH LESS CHANCE OF PRECIP. WILL STILL CARRY
CHANCE RAIN SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY GEM IS PUSHING PRECIP
FARTHER NORTH. GFS/ECMWF TRENDING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. UPPER RIDGING
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK SO A QUIET PATTERN TRIES TO EMERGE.
ALLBLEND BRINGS POPS BACK INTO CWA TUES NIGHT HOWEVER DETERMINISTIC
CONSENSUS IS THAT MSTR TRANSPORT DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. MID
LVL SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS WED/EARLY THURSDAY SO POPS APPEAR
TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPPER TROF COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. KDLH WILL HAVE SLOWER IMPROVEMENT INITIALLY AS LO
LVL NE FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINES WITH TERRAIN LIFT TO
ENHANCE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE ON LOWER CLGS/VIS AT KDLH DUE
TO BR/FG VERY LOW. WILL USE TEMPO FOR NOW GIVEN LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY OF SHORT TERM CHANGES TODAY. GUIDANCE NOT CONSISTENT
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL OF BR/FG REDEVELOPMENT SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
IN PREVAILING.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 40 64 44 63 / 20 30 20 20
INL 40 67 45 71 / 10 30 10 20
BRD 43 67 47 70 / 20 30 10 30
HYR 44 67 44 71 / 30 30 20 20
ASX 41 63 42 67 / 30 30 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM....CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
256 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL AS PLAIN VIEW MAPS VIA FROM BOTH THE
RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 0-1KM RH VALUES OF 90-95 PERCENT LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DRYING OUT ACROSS
FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING IS SUPPORTED
BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS VIA THE RAP AND NAM12 SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION EXTENDING UP TO 700MB BY AFTERNOON...INDICATING SOME
DEEPER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. A FEW OF THESE CU
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO HAVE TRENDED THE
HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT THIS DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL FALL
APART QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE BROKEN STRATUS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO AS OF NOW DID CHOSE NOT TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN TERMS OF
WET WX AND WHETHER THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE FA.
AS THE CURRENT STRONG SHRTWV ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DIVES TO
THE E/SE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...THIS WILL CREATE A PROBLEM WITH THE NEXT STRONGER SHRTWV
MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW IN TERMS OF HOLDING BACK THE
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EC REMAINS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW ON
SAT/SUN...GFS/GEM HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN MN...WHERE AS BEFORE THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WAS ACROSS CENTRAL MN. ANOTHER ASPECT IS
WHETHER A COMPLEX OF TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
PER THE LATEST EC WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE ADVECTION PROBLEMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ON SATURDAY. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND
FORECAST...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LOWER POP IN MY N/NE FA...WITH
CONTINUING THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE REFLECTED IF MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ONCE THIS
SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY
WX IS EXPECTED MON/TUE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
PROBLEMS DEVELOP AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SECONDARY SHRTWV THAT
MOVED ACROSS CANADIAN BECOMES THE FOCUS ON ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EC HAS ANOTHER AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
MN/WI BY WED/THU. THE GFS HAS FOCUS MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SUNDAY/S WX SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...BOTH THE EC/GFS ARE SHOWING A
TYPICAL SUMMER RIDGE RIDER SCENARIO MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDS AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRES
CENTER STILL SLOWLY PRESSING E THROUGH THE AREA TDA. WEAK MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH THIS TROUGH IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA...
INCLUDING OVER MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTN. THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTN BUT CLOUD LAYERS ARE THICK ENOUGH SUCH
THAT CEILINGS RISING TO VFR LEVELS ARE UNLIKELY. AFTER DARK...
INCOMING HIGH PRES WITH ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL FORCE DECKS BACK
DOWN...EVEN TO IFR LEVELS. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS BUT LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW COVERAGE TO IMPROVE FROM BKN. THE LOW CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THRU DAYBREAK...THEN CONDS IMPROVE DURG THE DAY
TMRW. AS FOR PRECIP...ONLY FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI MAY SEE SOME
ISOLD TO SCTRD SHWRS THRU THE REST OF TDA BUT WITH CHCS NO HIGHER
THAN 30 PERCENT...AM OPTING TO KEEP THE TAFS DRY. AS FOR TMRW...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT E OVER FAR NRN MN...APPRECIABLY FAR
ENOUGH AWAY SUCH THAT MENTIONABLE PRECIP IS NOT WARRANTED IN THE
06/18Z TAFS. IF ANYTHING...SPRINKLES LOOK TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT
PRECIP TMRW...AND AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NE THRU THE REST OF THE DAY TDA THEN
DROP TO LGT/VRBL...IF NOT CALM...OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SETTLE ON
SE BY LATE IN THE DAY TMRW...ALL WITH SPEEDS 7 KT OR LESS.
KMSP...DEGRADED CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET...AT
LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE. STARTED
OUT WITH IFR CEILINGS BUT HAVE SEEN SITES NEAR KMSP WITHIN LOWER-
END MVFR /ALTHOUGH LESS THAN 1700 FT/ SO HAVE SHOWN SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO JUST OVER THRESHOLD LEVELS BY LATE AFTN. THE
RISE IN CEILINGS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE NIGHTLY INVERSION WILL AGAIN CREATE LOW STRATUS...LIKELY WITH
IFR RETURNING ARND MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH DAYBREAK. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS ADVERTISED BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CEILINGS
RISE TO MVFR LEVELS QUICKER...AND POSSIBLY EVEN TO VFR BY LATE
AFTN. NO PRECIP WITH THIS ISSUANCE BUT A FEW STRAY -SHRA...MAINLY
AS SPRINKLES...CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN AGAIN
DURG THE DAY TMRW. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. NE WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP TO LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE
SE DURG THE DAY TMRW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 15G25KT.
SUN...MVFR LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS
NE10KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
138 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THE FIRST WAS AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH TS ANDREA. AS OF 1AM...MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS
1001MB WITH 40KTS SUSTAINED WIND. THIS PALES IN COMPARISON TO THE
MID LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT WAS ROARING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 976MB AND A MUCH
BROADER 40KT WIND FIELD. THE UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PACIFIC CYCLONE WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE THIRD FEATURE OF INTEREST WAS THE FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDED UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT EVIDENT BY THE EXPANSIVE
CLOUD FIELD THAT BLANKETED THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL AS PLAIN VIEW MAPS VIA FROM BOTH THE
RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 0-1KM RH VALUES OF 90-95 PERCENT LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DRYING OUT ACROSS
FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING IS SUPPORTED
BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS VIA THE RAP AND NAM12 SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION EXTENDING UP TO 700MB BY AFTERNOON...INDICATING SOME
DEEPER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. A FEW OF THESE CU
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO HAVE TRENDED THE
HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT THIS DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL FALL
APART QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE BROKEN STRATUS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO AS OF NOW DID CHOSE NOT TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD REFUSES TO VACATE THE AREA WITH ANY EXPEDIENCY AND MAY
FACILITATE ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MN AND WRN
WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND SOME SUN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE...ALBEIT UNDER A BROKEN CLOUD
SHIELD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPILL OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN
MN INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED TO A LOT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NAM EXHIBITING ITS NORTHERN BIAS WHILE
THE GFS/GEM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE ECMWF CAME INTO RELATIVELY
DECENT AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH THE 00Z RUNS. BIG DIFFERENCE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS THE LATTER SOLUTION DEVELOPS A STOUT
SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SERN SD OR SWRN MN SATURDAY
EVENING. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESE FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR
SRN MN OR NRN IA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
GFS AND GEM QPF FIELDS SHOW PRECIP BREAKING OUT JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AND CONFINED
FURTHER WEST DUE TO WEAKER/FURTHER WEST 850 MB JET. MAINTAINED
HIGH POPS ACROSS WRN MN...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF INTO WRN WI GIVEN
THAT THIS IS JUST A RECENT TREND. THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER FAR SRN MN WILL OCCLUDE AND SLOWLY TRACK ESE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS FAR SRN MN. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WARM FRONT THAT
CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH LONG...LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND LOW
LCL/S. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE. IF THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST CAPE...COULD SEE A TORNADO
THREAT DEVELOP.
THIS SYSTEM REMINDS ME OF A WINTER STORM THIS PAST YEAR...COMPLETE
WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. IT AGAIN BEGS THE QUESTION...WHAT MONTH IS
THIS?
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS COULD FOLLOW SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW
SLOWLY IT TAKES THE LOW TO PULL OUT. IF IT IS CLOUDY AND
RAINY...WE CAN PROBABLY HACK 10 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS ARE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID/LATE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WX TO
MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL AS PLAIN VIEW MAPS VIA FROM BOTH THE
RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 0-1KM RH VALUES OF 90-95 PERCENT LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DRYING OUT ACROSS
FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING IS SUPPORTED
BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS VIA THE RAP AND NAM12 SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION EXTENDING UP TO 700MB BY AFTERNOON...INDICATING SOME
DEEPER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. A FEW OF THESE CU
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO HAVE TRENDED THE
HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT THIS DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL FALL
APART QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE BROKEN STRATUS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO AS OF NOW DID CHOSE NOT TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD REFUSES TO VACATE THE AREA WITH ANY EXPEDIENCY AND MAY
FACILITATE ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MN AND WRN
WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND SOME SUN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE...ALBEIT UNDER A BROKEN CLOUD
SHIELD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPILL OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN
MN INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED TO A LOT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NAM EXHIBITING ITS NORTHERN BIAS WHILE
THE GFS/GEM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE ECMWF CAME INTO RELATIVELY
DECENT AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH THE 00Z RUNS. BIG DIFFERENCE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS THE LATTER SOLUTION DEVELOPS A STOUT
SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SERN SD OR SWRN MN SATURDAY
EVENING. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESE FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR
SRN MN OR NRN IA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
GFS AND GEM QPF FIELDS SHOW PRECIP BREAKING OUT JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AND CONFINED
FURTHER WEST DUE TO WEAKER/FURTHER WEST 850 MB JET. MAINTAINED
HIGH POPS ACROSS WRN MN...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF INTO WRN WI GIVEN
THAT THIS IS JUST A RECENT TREND. THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER FAR SRN MN WILL OCCLUDE AND SLOWLY TRACK ESE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS FAR SRN MN. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WARM FRONT THAT
CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH LONG...LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND LOW
LCL/S. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE. IF THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST CAPE...COULD SEE A TORNADO
THREAT DEVELOP.
THIS SYSTEM REMINDS ME OF A WINTER STORM THIS PAST YEAR...COMPLETE
WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. IT AGAIN BEGS THE QUESTION...WHAT MONTH IS
THIS?
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS COULD FOLLOW SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW
SLOWLY IT TAKES THE LOW TO PULL OUT. IF IT IS CLOUDY AND
RAINY...WE CAN PROBABLY HACK 10 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS ARE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID/LATE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WX TO
MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRES
CENTER STILL SLOWLY PRESSING E THROUGH THE AREA TDA. WEAK MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH THIS TROUGH IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA...
INCLUDING OVER MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTN. THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTN BUT CLOUD LAYERS ARE THICK ENOUGH SUCH
THAT CEILINGS RISING TO VFR LEVELS ARE UNLIKELY. AFTER DARK...
INCOMING HIGH PRES WITH ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL FORCE DECKS BACK
DOWN...EVEN TO IFR LEVELS. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS BUT LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW COVERAGE TO IMPROVE FROM BKN. THE LOW CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THRU DAYBREAK...THEN CONDS IMPROVE DURG THE DAY
TMRW. AS FOR PRECIP...ONLY FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI MAY SEE SOME
ISOLD TO SCTRD SHWRS THRU THE REST OF TDA BUT WITH CHCS NO HIGHER
THAN 30 PERCENT...AM OPTING TO KEEP THE TAFS DRY. AS FOR TMRW...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT E OVER FAR NRN MN...APPRECIABLY FAR
ENOUGH AWAY SUCH THAT MENTIONABLE PRECIP IS NOT WARRANTED IN THE
06/18Z TAFS. IF ANYTHING...SPRINKLES LOOK TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT
PRECIP TMRW...AND AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NE THRU THE REST OF THE DAY TDA THEN
DROP TO LGT/VRBL...IF NOT CALM...OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SETTLE ON
SE BY LATE IN THE DAY TMRW...ALL WITH SPEEDS 7 KT OR LESS.
KMSP...DEGRADED CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET...AT
LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE. STARTED
OUT WITH IFR CEILINGS BUT HAVE SEEN SITES NEAR KMSP WITHIN LOWER-
END MVFR /ALTHOUGH LESS THAN 1700 FT/ SO HAVE SHOWN SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO JUST OVER THRESHOLD LEVELS BY LATE AFTN. THE
RISE IN CEILINGS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE NIGHTLY INVERSION WILL AGAIN CREATE LOW STRATUS...LIKELY WITH
IFR RETURNING ARND MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH DAYBREAK. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS ADVERTISED BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CEILINGS
RISE TO MVFR LEVELS QUICKER...AND POSSIBLY EVEN TO VFR BY LATE
AFTN. NO PRECIP WITH THIS ISSUANCE BUT A FEW STRAY -SHRA...MAINLY
AS SPRINKLES...CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN AGAIN
DURG THE DAY TMRW. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. NE WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP TO LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE
SE DURG THE DAY TMRW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 15G25KT.
SUN...MVFR LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS
NE10KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRB
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1255 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
A WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN WAS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER LOW
WAS MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPS AS WELL. WE HAVE A DIMINISHING
TREND BY LATE AFTERNOON IN RAIN COVERAGE...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE CHANCES SOME INTO EARLY
EVENING.
FOG HAS ALSO BEEN AN ISSUE TODAY AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
KCOQ DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE ALL DAY...AND KDLH HAS BEEN WAFFLING
BETWEEN A QUARTER MILE AND A MILE. THE HRRR FORECASTS VSYBS TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWS THEM DIMINISHING AGAIN BY
06Z. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND WE EXPECT FOG
TO PERSIST. HOW DENSE IS THE QUESTION...AND WE MAY HAVE TO HOIST A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS/SOUTHERN SAINT LOUIS/CARLTON
COUNTIES TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHSHORE MAY ALSO SEE DENSE
FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KINL...LOCATED IN A RELATIVELY DRIER FLOW OF
LOW LVL AIR...ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR AND BELOW
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN POOR OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS IN SFC LAYER
ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CEILINGS AND BR/FG. SREF PROBABILITY
FCST OF IFR AND LOWER IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS SRN PART OF CWA
OVERNIGHT SO CONFIDENCE HIGHER AT KBRD/KDLH/KHYR. OVERALL BEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR AT KINL WITH POSSIBILITY FOR OPTIMISTIC
AMENDMENTS AT KHIB LATER THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AT 330 AM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...ON THEIR WAY EASTWARD TO THE
TWIN PORTS AND MUCH OF NW WI. MUCH OF THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
HAS SEEN ONE HALF INCH TO AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. LIGHTNING STILL SHOWING UP IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA MOVING INTO EC MN.
THE 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THE FOCUS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND
THEN SHIFT TO A WEST TO EAST OR NW/SE ORIENTED BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. A STRONG VORT MAX ALONG WITH STRONG DEFORMATION AND AN
H3 JET STREAK WILL ADD TO THE FORCING TODAY.
FOR TODAY...WILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE AND THE BORDER REGION. COULD SEE SOME 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AREAS. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE HELD IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION.
THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT
CONCERNING CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS.
LONG TERM....THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND COULD BE WET AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS BY THE
MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...AND EITHER THE LOW OR ITS TROUGH
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE SOME CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHICH SCENARIO HAPPENS...BUT FOR
EITHER SCENARIO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE NORTHLAND WILL GET
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE MIGHT MOVE INTO
THE NORTHLAND IN THE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 42 57 42 65 / 50 40 10 0
INL 38 66 43 70 / 10 30 10 0
BRD 47 63 44 70 / 20 20 10 0
HYR 47 62 43 71 / 60 30 10 10
ASX 42 55 40 65 / 70 40 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>146.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
AVIATION.....CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1121 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NECESSARY. PER 12Z JAN RAOB...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED AS
WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL YIELD SFC-BASED CAPE APPROACHING 4000
J/KG WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE ~1200 J/KG...ALL MAKING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS IN THE WEAKLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
PRIMARY QUESTIONS SURROUND FOCUSING/LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THREE SUCH AREAS ARE ON THE FRINGES OF THE ARKLAMISS...A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NRN MS/NRN
AL...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER AR AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE OVER SE LA/SRN MS ASSOC WITH
EASTERLY FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM
THESE SOURCES MAY CAUSE RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE STRONG SVR WEATHER RISK AREA SOME.
/EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT WHERE
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LASTING A COUPLE HOURS IN THOSE AREAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE NW
WHERE A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. /GRG/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TRIED TO USE A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT TODAY. TWEAKED
THE MAV GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY...BUT STAYED REALLY CLOSE FOR POPS.
OTHERWISE MAV WAS GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
EAST AT THE START OF THE SHIFT...HOWEVER THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH MO/TN EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THOSE STORMS WERE ALSO MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. NOT
ANTICIPATING RE-DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHTNING/INTENSITY WAS INCREASING AS THE STORMS DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST. DID NOT ADD A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO THE ZONES...BUT KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH FOR THE NOWCAST THROUGH 12Z.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
THE NEXT COMPLEX WAS MOVING THROUGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON....WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
PARAMETERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELTA REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THE SAME WORDING IN THE HWO...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE
OVER THE GULF WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
TO SLOW THE BOUNDARY/STORM COMPLEX DOWN...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
NOT SHOWING ANY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR NEW QPF AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER WEEKEND EXPECTED AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S LOOK
PROBABLE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKING PRECIP CHANCES
A TOUCH TRICKY.
OVERALL PATTERN WILL MIGRATE FROM A MODEST S/WV TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING AXIS ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO A
SUBTLE S/WV NW FLOW TROUGHING REGIME OVER THE WEEKEND TO A WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AS A MODESTLY PROGGED 593DM RIDGE SETS
UP OVER S-CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFTS OVER THE REGION
BY MID WEEK. 05/00Z GFS VS. 04/12Z EC SHOWED STRONGER MOMENTUM TO
WEEKEND BOUNDARY GETTING FARTHER SOUTH NEAR I-10 CORRIDOR AND
SLIDING A H7 SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE UNDER THE DEVELOPING H5 S-CNTRL
PLAINS RIDGE INDICATING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EC HAS BEEN SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
RIDGE, LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR POTENTIAL NW FLOW MCS/S WITH
SEVERAL APPARENT INDICATIONS IN QPF MASS FIELDS. YET, HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS 00Z GFS GIVEN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN H7 AND H5 ENSEMBLE
MEAN/PERTURBATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS. LATEST 00Z EC COMING IN HAS
SHIFTED H5 RIDGE AXIS FARTHER EAST, HELPING INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN
HOTTER/DRIER FORECAST. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL NW SURPRISES IF RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BUILD IN.
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY
AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG BUT THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE EXITING EAST BEFORE
BEST AFTN DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PUSHED
FARTHER SOUTH SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT AFTN FOR FAR
SOUTH AREAS AS SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY FLARES UP UNDER PREVAILING NW
FLOW. TEMPS SAT MRNG WILL MORE COMFORTABLE AS OF LATE WITH READINGS
DOWN IN THE LOW 60S. MOISTURE WILL REBOUND QUICKLY SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A HINT OF
AN EMBEDDED SMALLER WAVE IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS A TOUCH FOR W/NW AREAS IN PROXIMITY TO WAVE WHILE
LEAVING INTACT POPS FOR SOUTH AREAS AS SEA-BREEZE ACTION COMMENCES
AGAIN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START TO FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY IN THE MID
90S AS THE H7-5 RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE ARKLAMISS.
TEMPERED TEMPS 1-2F DOWN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF RIDGE NOT BUILDING IN
AS FAST AS GFS ADVERTISED VS. EC AND INCREASED POPS BY 5% TO CARRY
SOME POTENTIAL FOR NW CONVECTION DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UNCAPPED,
DEEPER MOISTURE GRADIENT, AND SUBTLE S/WV TROUGHING TRAIN SETS UP
ALONG A NW/SE AXIS NEARBY. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 91 70 88 69 / 33 33 56 63
MERIDIAN 89 69 89 68 / 41 41 50 64
VICKSBURG 92 71 87 66 / 27 31 58 62
HATTIESBURG 91 70 91 70 / 51 51 36 30
NATCHEZ 90 71 88 68 / 35 35 48 36
GREENVILLE 91 73 86 68 / 34 56 64 58
GREENWOOD 91 71 88 68 / 35 55 67 64
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
639 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SMALL
IN SIZE AND RADAR HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF ANY SPRINKLES WITH THEM.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW MIGHT FALL SHORT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
THE HRRR AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
HINT OF THEM AT THIS TIME...BUT A FEW OF THE CUMULUS ELEMENTS SEEM
TO BE GAINING SOME SIZE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE FRAMES.
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA AND THE CUMULUS ARE FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE. WILL
REMOVE THE SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE MOST OF THE CUMULUS FIELD IS FROM DAY TIME HEATING THE
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SOME MOISTURE THAT LINGERS IN THE MID LEVELS DURING THE
NIGHT AND WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL WILL
IT GET WITH CLOUDS AROUND. WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS
LAST NIGHT IF THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
SKY COVER TOMORROW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. WITH
THAT IN MIND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HIGHS TODAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BRING IN ENOUGH
WARM ADVECTION TO WARM THINGS VERY MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ALOFT: AFTER THE LAST 15 DAYS OF SUPPRESSED WESTERLIES AND THE
MEAN TROF IN THE WRN USA...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THE NEXT 7
DAYS THAT WILL ESTABLISHE A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND TROFS ON BOTH
COASTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH N OF HAWAII...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE E PAC SAT AND PARK OVER TX BY TUE.
IN THE MEANTIME...A POTENT SHRTWV TROF AND 120 KT ULJ ATOP THE HIGH
WILL PRECEDE IT SAT AND ARRIVE HERE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE HIGH
OVER TX AND LOWERING HGTS OVER THE E PAC WILL SEND THE CUT-OFF LOW
/CURRENTLY OFF SRN CA/ NE...ROUNDING THE RIDGE TUE. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN REBUILD OVER THE REGION WED-THU.
SFC: AS LOW PRES TRACKS THRU MT-ND...A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NGT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COOL FRONT SAT.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM NW-SE ACROSS NEB AND KS SUN-TUE AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON ITS COOL SIDE. AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CREST THE RIDGE...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE E
ALONG THE FRONT TUE NGT INTO W. IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT WILL DROP A
LITTLE FARTHER S BUT ITS WRN EDGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TIED TO A
LEE LOW OVER NE CO.
HAZARDS: TSTMS ARE LIKELY SAT. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS ON SVR. THEN
WE NEED TO WATCH FOR MCS ACTIVITY MON-WED...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NGT: FCST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TERMINATES. THIS HAS
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MESOSCALE FORCING AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. MODEL QPFS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE 00Z AND
12Z UKMET INDICATING AN MCS...THE GFS/NAM/GEM LARGELY DRY AND THE
LAST 3 EC CYCLES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
NAM MUCAPE 600 J/KG. 1-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
THREAT FOR SVR.
SAT: IF AN MCS DOES AFFECT PART OF THE FCST AREA FRI NGT...THIS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON WHAT OCCURS SAT AFTN/EVNG. FOR NOW
HAVE TREATED THE TWO PERIODS SEPARATELY...AS IF THEY WILL NOT
AFFECT EACH OTHER. THE COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH A NARROW WARM SECTOR.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE GONE 4-6F WARMER THAN THE 4 AM GID FCST FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CINH WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. ANY LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/RAIN IN THE MRNG AND FCST TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM IN THOSE
AREAS.
SEVERE: STRENGTHENING MID-UPR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL INCREASE
0-5 KM SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES ...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ONE OF THE MORE CONCERNING
ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THAT THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC WIND
WILL BE NORMAL TO THE COOL FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS AND
LESS CLUSTERING. 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 150 M2/S2 SUGGESTS
TORNADO POTENTIAL...HIGHEST NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. IT DOES APPEAR
THE TRIPLE PT COULD BE JUST NE OF THE FCST AREA /MAYBE NEAR OFK?/.
NAM MLCAPE HAS INCREASED 24 HRS AGO AND NOW OFFERS 1000-2000 J/KG
BEFORE ITS CONVECTIVE SCHEME KICKS IN. CLUSTERING OF MODELED HEAVIER
QPF IS BEST ALONG AND E OF HWY 281 WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FRONTAL
TIMING.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
/NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING/ COULD COMPENSATE FOR
LESS THAN IDEAL THERMODYNAMICS /IE SFC DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
60S/.
SAT NGT: CLEARING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST IF THE STRONGER EC IS RIGHT.
SUN: THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND! EXCELLENT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LGT WINDS. THE 00Z/12Z EC DOES SUGGEST A SHWR
OR TWO FROM FULLERTON-OSCEOLA NEB.
MON-WED: WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX.
IN THE WARM SECTOR...SUNNY AND HOT. ON THE COOL
SIDE...P/CLOUDY...MAYBE M/CLOUDY AT TIMES?...WITH THE THREAT OF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MRNG MCS ACTIVITY. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH WE HAVE
NOTED THAT THE GEM/GFS/EC HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THEIR TSTM
CLUSTERS.
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE FOR FCST HEADACHES ON TEMPS AND PCPN
POTENTIAL. THE WAA/CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE MCS ACTIVITY OCCURS. THIS IN AND OF ITSELF
WILL REINFORCE/MODULATE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. THE
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN MCS ACTIVITY AND THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAP WILL
BE VERY SHARP. THESE ARE DETAILS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE.
USE THE FCST WITH CAUTION NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE/VE INDICATED TIME
PERIODS OF LOW POPS AND OTHER PERIODS DRY...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE IF
WE GET AN MCS ROLLING THRU HERE. AGAIN...AM NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
SUCH LOW POPS/DRY FCST. IT/S JUST TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF/WHEN/WHERE
TSTMS WILL OCCUR.
HVY RAIN: THIS SETUP WARRANTS CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
BACK-BUILDING CELL CONFIGURATIONS IF MCS ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES.
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW...THU IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW.
HEAT: PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS COULD SEE A 4-DAY HEATWAVE /90F OR
MORE/ BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUN. 100F IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR 1 OR 2 DAYS AT BEAVER CITY-PHILLIPSBURG- PLAINVILLE KS. WE
COULD SEE THIS HEAT EXPAND INTO S-CNTRL NEB TUE IF THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK N.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE
EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE TRANSITIONING
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER SOME MID CLOUD COVER MAY WORK
EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE
ATTAINED AGAIN FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU DEVELOPING
AGAIN...AT VFR LEVELS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA. AREA OF TSRA HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
MID CLOUDS...HOWEVER SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 10Z
AT KOMA AND KLNK. A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS MAY TRY TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEB...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THESE. NORTH WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS AND GENERALLY 8 TO 15KTS FOR
WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING STILL HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
H85 DEWPOINT OF 12DEG C. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW PUSH OF THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z...
STRETCHING FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO JUST WEST OF HEBRON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO POP UP JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEST OF OMAHA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST WITH HRRR PLACING EMPHASIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT EAST AND SOUTH OF
OMAHA. FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY REACHING
NORTHERN TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED
BY MODELS FOR LIMITED RAIN CHANCE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS STILL SHOW A COLD FRONT COMING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARMING TEMPERATURES
INDICATED AFTER THAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1154 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
AREA OF TSRA HAS SLIP SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MID CLOUDS. A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS
MAY HOLD TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEB
...SO WILL NEED TO MONTIOR THESE. NORTH WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS
AND GENERALLY 8 TO 15KTS FOR WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING STILL HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
H85 DEWPOINT OF 12DEG C. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW PUSH OF THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z...
STRETCHING FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO JUST WEST OF HEBRON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO POP UP JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEST OF OMAHA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST WITH HRRR PLACING EMPHASIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT EAST AND SOUTH OF
OMAHA. FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY REACHING
NORTHERN TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED
BY MODELS FOR LIMITED RAIN CHANCE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS STILL SHOW A COLD FRONT COMING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARMING TEMPERATURES
INDICATED AFTER THAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
RATHER WEAK PUSH OF MOISTURE WESTWARD TO THE DIVIDE EARLY TODAY
HAS LARGELY MIXED OUT AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXED DRIER IN FROM ABOVE
AND MOST OF EARLIER MOISTURE ADVECTION ENDED. WHAT FEW SHRA AND
TSRA THAT DEVELOPED WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THAT LINGER INTO
THE PRE MIDNIGHT HOURS THIS EVE WILL BE MAINLY WIND PRODUCERS...
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH...BUT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS AND WETTER
SHRA AND TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN...WITH SOME
OF THESE ALSO PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. SOME REMAINING LOW...BORDERLINE MVFR...CIGS
WILL LINGER AND LOWER A BIT FURTHER FOR SOME TIME INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO EXPAND
MUCH...CERTAINLY NOT AS MUCH AS OCCURRED WED NIGHT. A FEW FOG
PATCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z AND 15Z. CONVECTION
WILL AGAIN DIMINISH TO A LARGE DEGREE AFTER 02Z WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KROW AND KLVS
LATE TONIGHT. STRONGER TSRA EXPECTED FRI AFTN SOUTHER AND EASTERN
AREAS.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2013...
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS STILL OVERCOMING INHIBITION FROM THIS MORNING`S
THICK AND PROLONGED LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK...STILL ERODING AWAY
IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NM. THE WEST
INITIATED A TOWERING CU FIELD FIRST...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
QUITE MODEST IN THE LOWER 20S BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE SHOWN TO BE JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE WHERE
STORMS WILL FAVOR BEFORE 5 PM. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE HAS THUS FAR ONLY PRODUCED VERY SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF
WETTING RAIN WITH VISUAL INDICATORS OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT BEFORE
CLOUD GLACIATION OCCURS. IT WILL BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT ANY STORMS THAT ROLL OFF OF THESE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE. THE 18Z HRRR INDICATES STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE RATON RIDGE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM ALSO SUPPORTS THIS.
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION...AND MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WESTWARD SURGE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BETWEEN THE RIO GRANDE AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MODEST
SEEPAGE OF EAST WINDS WILL ALSO SPILL THROUGH FAVORED GAPS/CANYONS
WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AIDING.
ON FRIDAY...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOCUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEAN 0-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FROM NW TO SE AGAIN...BUT SUFFICIENT VEERING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT COULD CREATE A FEW DEVIANT MOVERS WITH STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOWS. IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...DREW
BEST SEVERE MENTION JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH
THE DRIER NATURE OF STORMS TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE KEEPING
CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT ALIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SEE SUBTLE
RISES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY...PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN
FROM THE BAJA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS WILL STEER DEEPER
MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE AND HIGHER-
BASED OR DRIER STORMS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE 592 DAM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER NM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE WHILE ONLY
DRY AND RATHER ANEMIC STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. POPS
REMAIN LOW OR NON-EXISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
SWELLS OVER THE STATE. BY LATE NEXT WEEK THE EUROPEAN SHIFTS THE
UPPER HIGH EAST WHILE A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...A BIT TOO PREMATURE FOR THE MONSOON.
52
.FIRE WEATHER...
...HOT...DRY AND UNSTABLE PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AIR MASS TO BECOME MOST UNSTABLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF I-40 TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXPECT ISOLATED STRONG IF
NOT BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE AIR MASS
HAS RECOVERED FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY STORMS SLOWLY TOWARD THE E-SE. GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES AGAIN TONIGHT EAST AND MUCH OF THE
NORTH...WITH IMPROVED RECOVERIES FROM THE DIVIDE WESTWARD BUT STILL
GENERALLY FAIR AT BEST. THINK A BRIEF RETURN OF GUSTY EASTERLY GAP
WINDS A GOOD BET ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY
BENEATH A WEAK NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURE/AIR MASS
RECOVERY WILL BE FAR BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE CROP OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EXPECT A GREATER NUMBER OF STRONG IF NOT
BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING AREAS
NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES FRIDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD MOST NOTABLY THE CENTRAL VALLEY CORRIDOR TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SO MOST CONCERNED WITH INVERTED-V
STORM ENVIRONMENT-- GUSTY WINDS/LIGHTNING WITH NOT MUCH RAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM
BUBBLE OF AIR EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE
BUILDS OUR DIRECTION FROM ARIZONA. MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING LESS
AND LESS FAVORABLE IN TIME BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION ARGUES FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED LATE DAY/EVENING STORMS FROM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
QUARTER. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE REINFORCED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A WILDCARD IN TERMS OF POP
PLACEMENT FOR LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES TO THE NE/EC PLAINS. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HOT...PREDOMINATELY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF DRY THUNDER
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS SUN PM. PRETTY TYPICAL
OF EARLY JUNE...WITH VERY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WE WILL BE
BATTLING A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
BUT MODELS ALWAYS SEEM TO UNDERPLAY THE DEPTH OF MIXING THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND THUS OVERPREDICTS STRENGTH OF ANY CAPPING LAYER THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE AT LIMITING CONVECTION.
BEYOND SUNDAY...GROWING CONCERNS FOR LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE FORCING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN/TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN. HAVE
TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TUE PM BUT WITH HAINES INDICES
OF 6 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COULD BE CRITICAL PERIOD DESPITE
SPEEDS WELL BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR BOUNDARY/FRONT NEAR A TCC TO EAGLE NEST LINE AND A FEW
SHRA AND TSRA ARE STILL FAIRLY LIKELY TO DEVELOP MAINLY BEHIND IT
OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS AND COLFAX COUNTY VCNTY AFTER 06Z...A VERY
FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF HAIL. BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR ROUGHLY THE NE THIRD
TO HALF OF NM BY WED AFTN TO AS LATE AS 00Z THU...HAVING
DECELLERATED SOMEWHAT EARLIER IN THE DAY. AREAS MVFR CIGS A
PRETTY GOOD POSSIBILITY AFTER 09Z NE OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EAGLE
NEST TO TCC. AFT 18Z OR 19Z WED STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA POTENTIAL
IN AREAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF SANGRE DE CRISTOS SE INTO EAST
CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SE PLAINS. THESE WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR
IF NOT IFR CIGS AND MT OBSCURATIONS. ALSO CAN EXPECT STRONG E TO
SE CANYON WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AND AFTER THE 00Z TO 02Z
PERIOD AFFECTING MAINLY SAF AND ABQ. 43
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1104 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE NE PLAINS WHERE SEVERAL MOIST
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE OVER THE AREA. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RUC AND HRRR SHOW THIS AREA FAVORED FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST HAVE REMOVED MENTION. ALSO MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD
WHEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IMPACTS THE STATE.
GUYER
.PREV DISCUSSION...655 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
PLACED SMOKE BACK INTO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT IN AREAS OUTLINED BY
ONGOING INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION EFFORTS. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL
BE IN THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF FIRES AND AROUND LOS ALAMOS...SANTA
FE...ESPANOLA...AND LAS VEGAS. BANNERS HAVE BEEN PLACED ON OUR
PUBLIC PAGE TO LINK FOR THE SMOKE OUTLOOK. THE NDFD AIR QUALITY
PAGE AT AIRQUALITY.WEATHER.GOV/SECTORS/SOUTHROCKIES.PHP ALSO
PROVIDES SOME INFO ON SURFACE SMOKE AND COLUMN INTEGRATED VALUES.
GUYER
.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINING WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR CLASSIC
PYROCUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THOMPSON RIDGE FIRE. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE NOW INCREASING OVER NRN NM AND SRN CO...ON THE WINGS OF A
SUBTLE 50KT SW-NE SPEED MAX/JET STREAK. AND WITH THE VERY WARM TO HOT
LOW LEVELS...STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED DRY STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NM...PRODUCING ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL. BACKDOOR FRONT OVER FAR NE NM LOSING OUT TO THE SWLY
FLOW TO THE WEST...FOR NOW. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WHERE THE WEAK WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY TO CREATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THERE ALONG WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE FROM THE RATON MESA
EAST INTO NORTHERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH NIGHT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATING THAT AN MCC WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH RAIN COOLED AIR STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE HIGH
FURTHER. THIS WILL ACT TO SEND THE BACKDOOR FRONT ROARING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. QUITE THE LINE OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY SPAWNING DRY STORMS
ALONG THE WEST MESA AND POINTS WEST TO MOUNTAIN TAYLOR OR SO AS
THE AIRMASS PUSHES WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAISED POPS FOR THE VALLEY...MAINLY
FROM THE WEST MESA OF THE ABQ METRO WESTWARD TO THE WEST- CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS...ALBEIT MOST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TO HWY 60 EAST OF SANTA
ROSA EAST TO THE TX LINE. NAM12 PROGGING 2000-2500J/KG MU CAPE
VALUES ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF AROUND 30KTS.
MOST ACTIVE DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN THE HIGHEST
PWATS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAKING FOR MAINLY WET
STORMS. NW PLATEAU EXPECTED TO HAVE LIMITING MOISTURE INCREASE...MAKING
STORMS THERE MAINLY OF THE DRY VARIETY. STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ~2000J/KG OF CAPE
AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30KTS RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
MOST ACTIVE AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT FRIDAY BUT STILL PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND ERN PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DRIER AND WARMER/HOTTER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOTTEST DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER AND 700MB TEMPS CLIMB
TO NEAR 20C. 33
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO EARTH SHATTERING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RGV WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUT IN A GAP WIND AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE RGV. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS A TAD OVERALL AND TO PUSH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER WEST. WHERE THE DRY/WET BOUNDARIES END
UP WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER MAINLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MTS. OBSERVED DEWPTS
SUCH THAT LITTLE TO NO RAIN WOULD FALL WITH ANY SHOWERS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLD LIGHTNING
STRIKES BUT NOT EXPECTING AN OUTBREAK.
NAM12/RUC INDICATE A NORTHEAST SFC GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER NE NM
TONIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY WASHING OUT AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE
STRONGER SURGE DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED
TO STRETCH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SWD TO THE CLINES CORNERS AREA
THROUGH PORTALES...WHERE WETTER CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED.
RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT TO BE POOR WEST AND CENTRAL WHILE GOOD OR EVEN
EXCELLENT IN THE NORTHEAST. MIXING HTS FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE...LEADING TO SOME FAIR
TO GOOD VENTILATION VALUES FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST WHILE EXCELLENT
VALUES ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND WEST WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 7 TO 15 PERCENT WHILE 30S OR GREATER WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT.
CHANCE FOR A MIX OF WET/DRY STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WETTER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
VENT RATES IN THE EAST THURSDAY RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THAT PART OF THE STATE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES WILL STRETCH FROM THE WEST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WWD.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING
FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK...BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. SATURDAY LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
THIRD TO HALF...UNLESS A SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO FIND IT/S WAY INTO
THE STATE. ANOTHER...BUT WEAK...WIND SHIFT IN THE EAST FOR SUNDAY
PROGGED. GFS GENERATES NO QPF WITH THIS...HOWEVER THERE IS A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. VENTILATION IMPROVES FRI/SAT BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL REGRESS TOWARDS THE DRIER.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE NE PLAINS WHERE SEVERAL MOIST
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE OVER THE AREA. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RUC AND HRRR SHOW THIS AREA FAVORED FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST HAVE REMOVED MENTION. ALSO MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD
WHEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IMPACTS THE STATE.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...655 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
PLACED SMOKE BACK INTO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT IN AREAS OUTLINED BY
ONGOING INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION EFFORTS. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL
BE IN THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF FIRES AND AROUND LOS ALAMOS...SANTA
FE...ESPANOLA...AND LAS VEGAS. BANNERS HAVE BEEN PLACED ON OUR
PUBLIC PAGE TO LINK FOR THE SMOKE OUTLOOK. THE NDFD AIR QUALITY
PAGE AT AIRQUALITY.WEATHER.GOV/SECTORS/SOUTHROCKIES.PHP ALSO
PROVIDES SOME INFO ON SURFACE SMOKE AND COLUMN INTEGRATED VALUES.
GUYER
.PREV DISCUSSION...609 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH ISOLATED HIGH BASED AND
MOSTLY DRY SHRA AND TSRA WITH BRIEFLY STRONG GUSTS TO LINGER TIL
ABOUT 04Z SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GUP TO BELEN...THE NW PLATEAU AND
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTHERN PORTION OF NE HIGHLANDS. A
FEW VIRGA RELATED CONVECTIVE GUSTS ARE POSS AT GUP...THOUGH NOT
CONSIDERED HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO MENTION IN GUP TAF. A FEW WETTER
SHRA AND TSRA SHOWERS STORM ARE LIKELY OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...A VERY FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH
HIGH WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. BACK DOOR FRONT TO COME INTO NE
NM OVERNIGHT AND ENGULFING NE THIRD TO HALF OF NM BY END OF FCST
PERIOD...00Z THU. AREAS MVFR TO IFR CIGS A PRETTY GOOD POTENTIAL
AFTER 07Z FROM THE KRTN AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KTCC.
AFT 18Z OR 19Z WED STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA POTENTIAL IN AREAS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF SANGRE DE CRISTOS SE INTO EAST CENTRAL AND
PERHAPS SE PLAINS. 43
.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINING WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR CLASSIC
PYROCUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THOMPSON RIDGE FIRE. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE NOW INCREASING OVER NRN NM AND SRN CO...ON THE WINGS OF A
SUBTLE 50KT SW-NE SPEED MAX/JET STREAK. AND WITH THE VERY WARM TO HOT
LOW LEVELS...STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED DRY STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NM...PRODUCING ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL. BACKDOOR FRONT OVER FAR NE NM LOSING OUT TO THE SWLY
FLOW TO THE WEST...FOR NOW. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WHERE THE WEAK WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY TO CREATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THERE ALONG WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE FROM THE RATON MESA
EAST INTO NORTHERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH NIGHT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATING THAT AN MCC WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH RAIN COOLED AIR STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE HIGH
FURTHER. THIS WILL ACT TO SEND THE BACKDOOR FRONT ROARING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. QUITE THE LINE OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY SPAWNING DRY STORMS
ALONG THE WEST MESA AND POINTS WEST TO MOUNTAIN TAYLOR OR SO AS
THE AIRMASS PUSHES WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAISED POPS FOR THE VALLEY...MAINLY
FROM THE WEST MESA OF THE ABQ METRO WESTWARD TO THE WEST- CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS...ALBEIT MOST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TO HWY 60 EAST OF SANTA
ROSA EAST TO THE TX LINE. NAM12 PROGGING 2000-2500J/KG MU CAPE
VALUES ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF AROUND 30KTS.
MOST ACTIVE DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN THE HIGHEST
PWATS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAKING FOR MAINLY WET
STORMS. NW PLATEAU EXPECTED TO HAVE LIMITING MOISTURE INCREASE...MAKING
STORMS THERE MAINLY OF THE DRY VARIETY. STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ~2000J/KG OF CAPE
AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30KTS RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
MOST ACTIVE AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT FRIDAY BUT STILL PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND ERN PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DRIER AND WARMER/HOTTER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOTTEST DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER AND 700MB TEMPS CLIMB
TO NEAR 20C. 33
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO EARTH SHATTERING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RGV WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUT IN A GAP WIND AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE RGV. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS A TAD OVERALL AND TO PUSH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER WEST. WHERE THE DRY/WET BOUNDARIES END
UP WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER MAINLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MTS. OBSERVED DEWPTS
SUCH THAT LITTLE TO NO RAIN WOULD FALL WITH ANY SHOWERS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLD LIGHTNING
STRIKES BUT NOT EXPECTING AN OUTBREAK.
NAM12/RUC INDICATE A NORTHEAST SFC GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER NE NM
TONIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY WASHING OUT AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE
STRONGER SURGE DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED
TO STRETCH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SWD TO THE CLINES CORNERS AREA
THROUGH PORTALES...WHERE WETTER CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED.
RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT TO BE POOR WEST AND CENTRAL WHILE GOOD OR EVEN
EXCELLENT IN THE NORTHEAST. MIXING HTS FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE...LEADING TO SOME FAIR
TO GOOD VENTILATION VALUES FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST WHILE EXCELLENT
VALUES ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND WEST WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 7 TO 15 PERCENT WHILE 30S OR GREATER WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT.
CHANCE FOR A MIX OF WET/DRY STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WETTER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
VENT RATES IN THE EAST THURSDAY RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THAT PART OF THE STATE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES WILL STRETCH FROM THE WEST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WWD.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING
FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK...BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. SATURDAY LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
THIRD TO HALF...UNLESS A SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO FIND IT/S WAY INTO
THE STATE. ANOTHER...BUT WEAK...WIND SHIFT IN THE EAST FOR SUNDAY
PROGGED. GFS GENERATES NO QPF WITH THIS...HOWEVER THERE IS A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. VENTILATION IMPROVES FRI/SAT BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL REGRESS TOWARDS THE DRIER.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1150 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND THEN
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND. A
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM THURSDAY...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND IS BEING WELL-PREDICTED BY THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH ITS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THAT
WILL BRING IT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST ADJUSTED THE TRACK A BIT BACK TO THE EAST AND SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO
ANDREA`S CENTER BEING DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND BURIED UNDER AN
IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN AND NOW SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. ANDREA`S
LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE IS BEING MAINTAINED LARGELY BY UPPER DIFLUENCE
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 200 MB JET WHICH LIES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND STATES.
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
SC INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN THE DRY
SLOT WRAPPING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS. THIS DRY SLOT APPEARS TO HAVE DAMAGED ANDREA`S
ABILITY TO GENERATE THE 3-5 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WE WERE
ANTICIPATING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...SO I HAVE TRIMMED BACK
RAINFALL PREDICTIONS TO THE 2.5 TO 3.0 INCH RANGE. IF RAINFALL RATES
ARE HEAVY ENOUGH THIS COULD STILL RESULT IN FLOODING...THEREFORE THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL COUNTIES.
ANDREA`S WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL NORTH OF THE CENTER ACROSS
GEORGIA. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK OUR FORECAST WIND SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5-10
MPH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NOW BELIEVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH ANDREA MAY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND STRONGER WINDS IN THE 1000-2000 FT AGL LAYER
GET MIXED DOWN IN TURBULENT GUSTS. USING A TYPICAL RULE-OF-THUMB
FROM THE 18Z FRIDAY GFS/ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER ILM I SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR 34-38 KNOT GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. I HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED WIND FORECASTS FROM NOON THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY ALL ACROSS
THE AREA AND HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR 35-45 MPH WIND GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH FRI EVENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF OT THE
NORTHEAST. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS SHOWS PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW
AS 1.5 INCHES THROUGH FRI EVENING AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT. MODELS SHOW
LOWER END POPS THROUGH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT BUT ALSO SHOW ANOTHER
AREA OF PCP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BY SAT AFTN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH ENHANCED MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS RIDING UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION SAT AFTN.
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL RUNNING LOWER ON FRI DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD
UP WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW AND MORE
INSOLATION...RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH A FAIRLY
DEEP LAYER ON SUNDAY WITH SOME EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THE AREA. PREVIOUSLY GREAT LAKES TROUGHINESS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
DRYING. MODELS NOW TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER W TROUGH
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE THAT EFFECT. IN THE END BOTH DAYS
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY `NORMAL` AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION
POSSIBLY ALTERING THE OTHERWISE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
MORE LIKELY CHARACTERIZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRONT MAY STILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
OFFSHORE AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OUT OF THE FORECAST. MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BOTH BY DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A MINOR DOWNWARD TREND TOWARDS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TS ANDREA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION
THIS EVENING...AND IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE PCPN IN OUR CWA...BUT
THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH/TEMPO -SHRA IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES A HEAVIER BAND OF PCPN MAY MOVE
ONSHORE AT KMYR/KCRE AROUND 04Z. HAVE INCLUDED SHRA/+SHRA ALONG WITH
IFR CIGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS ANDREA NEARS THE CAROLINAS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TERMS BY 12Z AS THE CENTER OF ANDREA
ENTERS OUR CWA. AS THE STORM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST...THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN QUITE GUSTY...AROUND 20
KTS INLAND AND 25-30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR/VFR LEVELS ON FRIDAY AFTN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 PM THURSDAY...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA`S CENTER IS LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND SHOULD ROLL
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH THE CENTER REMAINING INLAND...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WITH ANDREA ARE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER...INCLUDING 37 KNOTS AT BUOY 41012 SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FL. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH OF THE STORM
EXPECTED...WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE TO THE 25-35 KT RANGE FRIDAY MORNING...VEERING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8-11 FT BY NOON FRIDAY...THEN WILL DIMINISH AS WELL WITH
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS INTO THE EVENING.
RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT ROTATES UP THE EAST SIDE OF
ANDREA`S CIRCULATION. UNTIL THEN...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE
DISPLAYED EVIDENCE OF ROTATION ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY...AND WE
WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THEM FOR POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRI NIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DOWN
TO 10 TO 15 KTS AND REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SEAS BECOMING 3-5 FT BY SAT MORNING. AS THE TROPICAL STORM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SEAS WILL STILL RUN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON
A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH SAT ENDING UP WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND
SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY EARLY SUN MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BRING FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS. WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS TO YIELD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SPEEDS MOST
CHARACTERIZED BY 10 TO 15KT FORECAST. SEAS WILL BE GRADED FROM
NEARSHORE TO OFFSHORE IN THE COAST-PARALLEL FLOW RANGING FROM 2 TO 4
FT. WNA GUIDANCE SHOWING BOTH 5 AND SECOND PERIOD ENERGY SO WAVE
FACES MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE STEEP SIDE. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL
FEATURE A SMALL INCREASE IN SWELL ENERGY AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME 5 FT SEAS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES THAT COULD REQUIRE
SCEC AND POSSIBLY EVEN SHORT-LIVED MARGINAL ADVISORY. THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY SHOULD VEER THE WIND JUST
ENOUGH TO DECREASE SEAS BY ABOUT A FOOT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SCZ053>056.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ105>110.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
754 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND THEN
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND. A
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS ONSHORE ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
NHC FORECAST PATH. THE MEAN CANADIAN/ECMWF/GFS PATH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NHC AND CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING WITH REGARDS TO THAT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHERE CONFIDENCE MAY ACTUALLY BE DECREASING
IS WITH THE RAINFALL FORECAST. RADAR COMPOSITES UPSTREAM FROM
CHARLESTON AND JACKSONVILLE SHOW A LESS IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SHIELD
THAN I HAD ANTICIPATED. THERE IS ALSO A NOTABLE DRY SLOT SEEN ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA MOVING OFFSHORE EAST OF
JAX. EXTRAPOLATED FORWARD THIS COULD EAT INTO OUR RAINFALL TOTALS
SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE COMPLETE
LACK OF OBSERVED LIGHTNING ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER OF ANDREA AND
THE EXPECTATION THAT LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY BECOME LESS STEEP WITH
INCREASING LATITUDE OF THE SYSTEM...I HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST UP THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM
FOLLOWS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS THE BIG
BEND OF FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPE
FEAR AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE AIR
MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING IN
EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE THICK CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
400 J/KG. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...
WITH STORM MOTIONS UNDER 10 KT AND VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS
SHOULD ANY CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN.
THE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA WILL REACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
TOTAL 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH ANDREA WILL BE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT
SOILS ARE WET FROM RECENT RAIN EVENTS. THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
PREDICTED HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS EVE. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE OCCURRING DURING THE EVE HIGH
TIDE. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE OCCURRING
DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE FRI MORNING. THIS HEAVY RAIN...IN UNISON
WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS...SHOULD HELP TO BRING WATER LEVELS HIGHER
THAN PREDICTED AND MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
SUSTAINED SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT AND UP TO
30 TO 40 MPH BY MORNING...HIGHEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST BY
MORNING. SOME SMALL AND WEAK TREES MAY TOPPLE WITH WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE GIVEN THE GROUND WILL LIKELY SATURATE IN MANY AREAS. SOME
TREE LIMBS MAY BE DOWNED AS WELL. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF WEAK TORNADOES OVERNIGHT AND FRI...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE IN
THIS RISK AREA. TORNADO WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT. ALL ARE ASKED TO KEEP THEIR NOAA WEATHER RADIOS ON...EVEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THAT YOU ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE ANY TORNADO OR
FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...WILL BE MOVING NEARLY OVERHEAD ON
FRIDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF THE ILM CWA.
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA MAKES ITS WAY UP THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS. THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
DIRECTLY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR CWA FRI BETWEEN 8 AM AND 2
PM. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
S-SE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
MOVING INLAND WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DOWN TO 15 TO 20
MPH AND MAY EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.
EXPECT WIND DRIVEN RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM PASSES BY. DEEP MOISTURE WITH PCP WATER VALUES WELL OVER AN
INCH WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
MAY END UP JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...OVER CENTRAL
CAROLINAS WHERE GREATEST BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL BE LOCATED AS THE
STORM MAKES ITS TRANSITION TO POST TROPICAL. THE DEEP MOISTURE
ALONG WITH RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN
EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. FOR NOW...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HOURS SURROUNDING HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR
AROUND 7 AM.
AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW TO WEST ON THE BACK END. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRI EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF OT THE NORTHEAST. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS SHOWS PCP
WATER VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 1.5 INCHES THROUGH FRI EVENING
AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT. MODELS SHOW LOWER END POPS THROUGH LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT BUT ALSO SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF PCP MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH BY SAT AFTN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS RIDING UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE
DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION SAT AFTN.
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL RUNNING LOWER ON FRI DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD
UP WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW AND MORE
INSOLATION...RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH A FAIRLY
DEEP LAYER ON SUNDAY WITH SOME EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THE AREA. PREVIOUSLY GREAT LAKES TROUGHINESS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
DRYING. MODELS NOW TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER W TROUGH
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE THAT EFFECT. IN THE END BOTH DAYS
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY `NORMAL` AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION
POSSIBLY ALTERING THE OTHERWISE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
MORE LIKELY CHARACTERIZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRONT MAY STILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
OFFSHORE AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OUT OF THE FORECAST. MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BOTH BY DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A MINOR DOWNWARD TREND TOWARDS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TS ANDREA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION
THIS EVENING...AND IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE PCPN IN OUR CWA...BUT
THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH/TEMPO -SHRA IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES A HEAVIER BAND OF PCPN MAY MOVE
ONSHORE AT KMYR/KCRE AROUND 04Z. HAVE INCLUDED SHRA/+SHRA ALONG WITH
IFR CIGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS ANDREA NEARS THE CAROLINAS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TERMS BY 12Z AS THE CENTER OF ANDREA
ENTERS OUR CWA. AS THE STORM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST...THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN QUITE GUSTY...AROUND 20
KTS INLAND AND 25-30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR/VFR LEVELS ON FRIDAY AFTN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS...PARTICULARLY LOOKING
AT LOW-LEVEL STABILITY PARAMETERS WITH AIR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR WARMER THAN WATER TEMPERATURES...SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE
TROUBLE GENERATING SURFACE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MY LATEST FORECAST TONES DOWN
GUST POTENTIAL WHILE MAKING VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SUSTAINED/
AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS WHICH ARE TAKEN FROM GRIDDED NHC WIND FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MODERATE SOUTH WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM
FOLLOWS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL AFFECT
THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SSE TO S WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KT INTO EARLY THIS EVE. SUSTAINED SE
WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 40 KT LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. WIND
GUSTS MAY BE IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY
TONIGHT...FROM 3 TO 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON...TO 11 TO 14 FT BY
DAYBREAK. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POOR VISIBILITIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WATERS TONIGHT WITH THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND FRI MORNING. WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE...DECREASING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VEERING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST MUCH
OF THE DAY TO THE SW BEHIND ANDREA AS SHE LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH FRI
AFTN AND DECREASING FURTHER THROUGH FRI NIGHT DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS
AND REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE TROPICAL STORM WINDS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG ON SHORE PUSH
DRIVING SEAS UP TO 12 TO 14 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS PEAKING FRI
MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH LATE FRI AS WINDS
DIMINISH. EXPECT SEAS BECOMING 3-5 FT BY SAT MORNING. AS THE
TROPICAL STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SEAS WILL STILL RUN
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON A DOWNWARD TRENT THROUGH SAT ENDING UP WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY EARLY SUN
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BRING FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS. WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGHINESS TO YIELD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SPEEDS MOST
CHARACTERIZED BY 10 TO 15KT FORECAST. SEAS WILL BE GRADED FROM
NEARSHORE TO OFFSHORE IN THE COAST-PARALLEL FLOW RANGING FROM 2 TO 4
FT. WNA GUIDANCE SHOWING BOTH 5 AND SECOND PERIOD ENERGY SO WAVE
FACES MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE STEEP SIDE. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL
FEATURE A SMALL INCREASE IN SWELL ENERGY AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME 5 FT SEAS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES THAT COULD REQUIRE
SCEC AND POSSIBLY EVEN SHORT-LIVED MARGINAL ADVISORY. THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY SHOULD VEER THE WIND JUST
ENOUGH TO DECREASE SEAS BY ABOUT A FOOT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SCZ053>056.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ105>110.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NE UP THE SE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE STALLED OUT COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...CENTRAL NC REMAINS
MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN
295-305K IS MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER WESTERN NC...AND A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER GEORGIA LAST EVENING. TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING
CLOUD COVER...AS CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING BEHIND THE BAND OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA. HRRR CEILING FORECASTS
SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY AND NEWEST MAV/MET VALUES
ARE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT FORECAST...IF NOT WARMER. THUS...DESPITE
CURRENT PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL LEAVE
HIGHS MOSTLY UNCHANGED..78-83.
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S. DIURNAL...WARM ADVECTION REGIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. -BLS
TONIGHT:
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SELY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN
THE 295-305K LAYER WILL BE SURE TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK...OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. THUS EXPECT NW PIEDMONT TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: A POTENTIALLY VERY WET PERIOD COMING
UP... FEATURING AT LEAST TWO PRIMARY ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS...
ONE THURSDAY AND MORE ON FRIDAY. FIRST... POSITIVELY TILTED MID
LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS WILL PIVOT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND PICK UP THE BAGGY TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... DRAWING IT TO THE NNE TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED TO OUR SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH NC THURSDAY... MARKING THE
LEADING EDGE OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIP WATER. RECENT BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES HAVE BEGUN TO SURGE
NORTHWARD FROM FL INTO SRN GA... AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM
UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPREADING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC
PRIMARILY SRN AND WRN PORTIONS WHERE THERE WILL BE GREATER
TERRAIN-FORCED UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEEP LCL-TO-FREEZING
LAYER DEPTH OVER 4 KM... SO SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY IF THE DEEP NEAR-SATURATION OF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
(ANALYSIS AGAINST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE GFS`S DEEP MOISTURE
COULD BE A LITTLE OVERDONE... WHILE THE NAM`S DEEP DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS WAY TOO DRY.) WILL HOLD ONTO AT
LEAST LIKELY POPS FOCUSING ON SRN/WRN SECTIONS ON THURSDAY...
BRIEFLY TAPERING DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS
A BIT TO 76-82. WILL STICK WITH LOWS JUST ABOVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE... 66-70.
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: MODEL DISPARITY PERSISTS REGARDING THE
TRACK AND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL LOW MOVING FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN
THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER AND EAST OF THE MISS VALLEY. BY 12Z
FRIDAY THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PLACE THE SURFACE LOW OVER SW GA/SE GA/SE
NC RESPECTIVELY. EACH MODEL IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF WHICH
FURTHER REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION. BASED ON ITS
SLIGHTLY SUPERIOR CONTINUITY HOWEVER... WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF FOR THE DETAILS OF
FRIDAY`S FORECAST... BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS QUITE LOW.
THE EXPECTED HIGH FLUX OF PRECIP WATER INTO CENTRAL NC AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NOTED BY THE ECMWF SUPPORTS HIGH POPS... 70-80% CHANCE...
PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. THE CONCERN FOR ISOLATED LOW-TOP
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF THE LOW TRACK AS NOTED BY
PREVIOUS SHIFT PERSISTS... GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE-850 MB
VEERING... BUT AGAIN THE CONFIDENCE IN SUCH DETAILS IS LOW GIVEN THE
WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE TROPICAL SOURCE OF THIS
LOW... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE... AND AT THE VERY LEAST WE
SHOULD SEE A THREAT OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY... HAVE
CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS... TO 77-81. LOWS 66-70 FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING DOWN FROM SW TO NE AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE
SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF NC... ALONG WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WHICH DAMPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NC
FRIDAY EVENING. AREAWIDE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.3-2.2 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS OVER NC AS THE MEAN TROUGH RELOADS BACK ALONG THE MISS
VALLEY... DRIVEN BY A STRONG MID LEVEL JET PLOWING ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW COAST FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS BUT LEAVES A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL (BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO) MOISTURE HOLDING ON IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK...
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVELS... BUT
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL STICK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS... HIGHEST ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... FROM LUNCHTIME THROUGH
EARLY EVENING... BEFORE DIMINISHING HEATING LEADS TO LOWERING
COVERAGE. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...
AND THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH UP HIGHS TO 83-87... IN LINE WITH
NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES. LOWS 66-70. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE ABOVE-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE STRONG WNW MID
LEVEL JET SPREADS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY... SOUTH OF A VORTEX OVER NRN MN. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING HOLDS OVER NC... AND AGAIN EXPECT SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
A BIT HIGHER LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EAST OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST) SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER NC MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT... BUT DPVA SHOULD BE VERY WEAK DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT.
BUT THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PIEDMONT
SURFACE TROUGH NECESSITATES AT LEAST CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE MID LEVEL VORTEX THEN WOBBLES ACROSS
NRN MI AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY
DROPS ESE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY... AND EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
COOLING ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO OUR EAST AND THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. WILL HAVE JUST LOW CHANCE POPS (BELOW CLIMATOLOGY) TO REFLECT
THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY
DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...
PERSIST LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DESPITE
CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...CEILINGS SHOULD LITTLE PROBLEM
FALLING BACK TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN BY 12Z. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE AT KRDU
AND RWI.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH
IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
OUTLOOK...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NE UP THE SE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE STALLED OUT COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...CENTRAL NC REMAINS
MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN
295-305K IS MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER WESTERN NC...AND A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER GEORGIA LAST EVENING. TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING
CLOUD COVER...AS CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING BEHIND THE BAND OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA. HRRR CEILING FORECASTS
SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY AND NEWEST MAV/MET VALUES
ARE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT FORECAST...IF NOT WARMER. THUS...DESPITE
CURRENT PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL LEAVE
HIGHS MOSTLY UNCHANGED..78-83.
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S. DIURNAL...WARM ADVECTION REGIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. -BLS
TONIGHT:
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SELY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN
THE 295-305K LAYER WILL BE SURE TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK...OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. THUS EXPECT NW PIEDMONT TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...
THREE PRIMARY FEATURES WILL DEFINE OUR FORECAST FOR THE WEEKS
END...INCLUDING A DEEPENING MID/UPR TROUGH OVER THE MISS AND TN
VALLEYS THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST...THE WARM FRONT THAT`S
PRESENTLY TO OUR SOUTH OVER SC...AND THE SFC LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON
THURSDAY...CROSSING OUR CWA DURING THE DAYTIME. EXPECT THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND AT THIS POINT FEEL COMFORTABLE INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF BETWEEN 18Z THUR
AND 03Z FRI. WHILE STABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...THUS AT THIS POINT SVR
THREAT LOOKS LIMITED WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PRECIP...THE CONSENSUS OF MOS
GUIDE...WHICH HOLDS HIGHS AROUND 80...LOOKS REASONABLE...IF NOT A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IN THE DAY THE RAIN
ARRIVES.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NE ACROSS THE SE STATES. AT THIS POINT...PREFER THE ECWMF
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY AND REASONABLE SFC PRESSURE EVOLUTION
AND ARRANGEMENT. LEANING TOWARD ITS SOLUTION...LOOK FOR BANDS OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW TO BEGIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...UP TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT... UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREV RUNS AND TRACKS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW FROM NEAR KSAV AT
12Z FRI TO NEAR KRIC BY 00Z SAT...TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG I-95
DURING THE DAYTIME AS IT MOVES ACROSS NC. TWO MAIN CONCERNS AS THEY
RELATE TO IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY INCLUDE...
1) POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC...AND SOME SPOTS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS
COULD RESULT IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR LOCATIONS THAT
SEE THE HEAVIER RAIN.
2) POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SVR CELLS OR PERHAPS A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELLS AND QUICK/BRIEF SPIN-UPS ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE WE SEE A JUXTAPOSITION OF THE
NOSE OF THE 50+ KT LLVL JET...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED 0-6KT
SHEAR...AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW VS THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AFT 00Z SAT
AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WHILE PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL LESSEN...CAN`T COMPLETELY REMOVE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE
L/W TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM OF US. 20-30 POPS SHOULD COVER PRECIP
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAV LOOKS TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SITUATION. WHILE WE DON`T BUY
INTO THE NAM SOLUTION...THE MET GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE FOR
TEMPS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY...BUT
WITH A LINGERING SFC TROUGH IN PLACE AND THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY...PREFER TO
KEEP AT LEAST LOW-END POPS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN OUR PREFERENCE FOR
THE ECMWF AND SENSIBLE WX EXPECTATIONS...PREFER MEL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WHICH SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. UNTIL IT IS EAST OF US HOWEVER...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...
PERSIST LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DESPITE
CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...CEILINGS SHOULD LITTLE PROBLEM
FALLING BACK TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN BY 12Z. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE AT KRDU
AND RWI.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH
IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
OUTLOOK...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NE UP THE SE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE STALLED OUT COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...CENTRAL NC REMAINS
MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN
295-305K IS MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER WESTERN NC...AND A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER GEORGIA LAST EVENING. TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING
CLOUD COVER...AS CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING BEHIND THE BAND OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA. HRRR CEILING FORECASTS
SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY AND NEWEST MAV/MET VALUES
ARE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT FORECAST...IF NOT WARMER. THUS...DESPITE
CURRENT PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL LEAVE
HIGHS MOSTLY UNCHANGED..78-83.
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S. DIURNAL...WARM ADVECTION REGIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. -BLS
TONIGHT:
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SELY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN
THE 295-305K LAYER WILL BE SURE TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK...OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. THUS EXPECT NW PIEDMONT TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...
THREE PRIMARY FEATURES WILL DEFINE OUR FORECAST FOR THE WEEKS
END...INCLUDING A DEEPENING MID/UPR TROUGH OVER THE MISS AND TN
VALLEYS THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST...THE WARM FRONT THAT`S
PRESENTLY TO OUR SOUTH OVER SC...AND THE SFC LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON
THURSDAY...CROSSING OUR CWA DURING THE DAYTIME. EXPECT THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND AT THIS POINT FEEL COMFORTABLE INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF BETWEEN 18Z THUR
AND 03Z FRI. WHILE STABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...THUS AT THIS POINT SVR
THREAT LOOKS LIMITED WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PRECIP...THE CONSENSUS OF MOS
GUIDE...WHICH HOLDS HIGHS AROUND 80...LOOKS REASONABLE...IF NOT A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IN THE DAY THE RAIN
ARRIVES.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NE ACROSS THE SE STATES. AT THIS POINT...PREFER THE ECWMF
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY AND REASONABLE SFC PRESSURE EVOLUTION
AND ARRANGEMENT. LEANING TOWARD ITS SOLUTION...LOOK FOR BANDS OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW TO BEGIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...UP TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT... UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREV RUNS AND TRACKS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW FROM NEAR KSAV AT
12Z FRI TO NEAR KRIC BY 00Z SAT...TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG I-95
DURING THE DAYTIME AS IT MOVES ACROSS NC. TWO MAIN CONCERNS AS THEY
RELATE TO IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY INCLUDE...
1) POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC...AND SOME SPOTS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS
COULD RESULT IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR LOCATIONS THAT
SEE THE HEAVIER RAIN.
2) POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SVR CELLS OR PERHAPS A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELLS AND QUICK/BRIEF SPIN-UPS ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE WE SEE A JUXTAPOSITION OF THE
NOSE OF THE 50+ KT LLVL JET...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED 0-6KT
SHEAR...AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW VS THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AFT 00Z SAT
AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WHILE PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL LESSEN...CAN`T COMPLETELY REMOVE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE
L/W TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM OF US. 20-30 POPS SHOULD COVER PRECIP
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAV LOOKS TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SITUATION. WHILE WE DON`T BUY
INTO THE NAM SOLUTION...THE MET GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE FOR
TEMPS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY...BUT
WITH A LINGERING SFC TROUGH IN PLACE AND THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY...PREFER TO
KEEP AT LEAST LOW-END POPS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN OUR PREFERENCE FOR
THE ECMWF AND SENSIBLE WX EXPECTATIONS...PREFER MEL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WHICH SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. UNTIL IT IS EAST OF US HOWEVER...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM WEDNESDAY...
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH MVFR RANGE...TO VFR...BY LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
OUTLOOK...
LIFR TO MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SUCH DEVELOPMENT AT KINT AND KGSO. A
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1009 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS
EVENING...SPREADING INTO THE EAST CENTRAL LATER TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE NOTED FROM AROUND KENMARE...NORTHEAST TO JUST WEST OF
WESTHOPE IN BOTTINEAU COUNTY. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...THINK CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER THE 02 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR BRINGS THESE
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. CURRENTLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS TRACKING
FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA WITH THE SOUTH END OF
THE COLD FRONT INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENTLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...AS FAR
SOUTH AS NEAR ESTEVAN. THINK THERE IS YET A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A
SHOWER TO SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES
WANING AS SUNSET APPROACHES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE GOING FOR NOW AND MAY PULL IT WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE IF NOTHING ELSE DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO
BUMP UP CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR NORTH AND UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENTLY ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
LIMITED INSTABILITY SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT EITHER. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
TROUGH WILL WAVER AROUND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BE THE FOCAL POINT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FR TONIGHT
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE JAMES AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEYS. UP NORTH...CLOUDS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 12Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST
TO DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST REGARDING THE PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL H250 JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVE
MOVE OVER THE AREA. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM...MIXED LEVEL CAPE
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 200 TO 600 J/KG...ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO FIRE UP...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GET SEVERE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...BULK SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE
ADVERTISING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.30 INCHES...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE 6/6 00Z RUN...THE 12Z ECWMF/NAM/GFS ARE A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS DOWN. AS
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE FORECAST...HAVE DECIDED
TO USE THE WPC QPF GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
OF UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. FACTORING IN
THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND THE FORECAST QPF VALUES ALONG WITH
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (INCH OR LESS)...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
LATE THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD EAST
AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTH DAKOTA...EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT BEST CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGES THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
REMAINING NORTH OF KMOT...WILL NOT MENTION A VCSH FOR KMOT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT. DID INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF VCFG AT KJMS 10-13
UTC FRIDAY IN AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY 18 UTC
THURSDAY NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WINDS SHIFT BACK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
MONTANA. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON FRIDAY.
BROUGHT A MENTION OF VCTS AT KISN AT 22 UTC FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES AFTER
00 UTC SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
CANCELLED ALL THE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH
ONGOING OVERLAND FLOODING CONTINUES...IT IS RECEDING SLOWLY AND
ROADS HAVE BEEN SIGNED AND BARRICADED.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOURIS
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM ALSO
APPEARS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. UNCERTAINTY IS GREAT WITH THIS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
THE FUTURE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...LTH
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
108 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
18 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LISBON TO FARGO TO WASKISH. A MORE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN BAND EXTENDS FROM NEAR BAGLEY/BEMIDJI
NORTH AND EAST TOWARD ELY MN. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL VALID...
CALLING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED
A DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND FORKS TO BAUDETTE LINE...BUT LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT THERMAL CU. TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE OR LESS ON TRACK. UPDATED POPS/WEATHER WITH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
15 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS FROM BEMIDJI
TO DETROIT LAKES TO FERGUS FALLS AND WAHPETON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 00
UTC TONIGHT. STARTING TO SEE SOME SUN ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND THINK THIS CLEARING SHOULD VERY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON LATEST RAP 925 TO 850 HPA RH PROFILE.
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
SO DECREASED TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS A FEW DEGREES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH. UPDATED POPS/WX/SKY/TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR ABOVE THINKING AND LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SFC LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF WAHPETON AT 12Z WITH UPPER LOW ALONG THE
ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA. FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTN AS IT MOVES EAST. BIG ISSUE
IS CLEARING TREND TODAY. CLEARING ENTERING FAR NW FCST AREA AND
THIS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST...BUT ALSO WITH LOTS OF 850 MB MOISTURE
WONDER IF WITH ANY SUN IT WILL CU UP. WILL LET FFA EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SFC LOW OVER VALLEY CITY AT 08Z WITH 500 MB LOW JUST SOUTH. MAIN
RAIN AREA HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST TOWARD BRAINERD-DULUTH-GRAND RAPIDS
MN AREAS. BUT FEED OF SHOWERS EXTENDS WEST INTO GRAND FORKS AREA
THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD JAMESTOWN. BUT THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT
BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH HEAVY RAINFALL. PAST 24-36 HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HIGHEST IN THE GRAND FORKS COUNTY REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
1.30 TO 2 INCHES WITH OTHER POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO SOUTHERN
WALSH AND NORTHWEST POLK COUNTIES WEST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
REGION. COORD WITH WFO BIS WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH TIL 12Z
EXPIRATION. HAVE HEARD NO ISSUES WITH FLOODING ANYWHERE FORTUNATELY.
AROUND SFC LOW IS SOME FOG WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AREA WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT IT WILL TAKE
MOST OF THE DAY FOR ALL PRECIP TO MOVE OUT. WILL HANG ONTO THE
CLOUDS A BIT LONGER THAN PREV FCST AS WELL...SOME CLEARING
ENTERING NW ND INTO WINNIPEG AND THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST...BUT HIGH 850 MB MOISTURE MAY MEAN SOME CUMULUS
REDEVELOPMENT WITH ANY SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
CLEARING...BUT 850 MB REMAINS STUBBORN SO FULL CLEARING MAY TAKE A
WHILE. TEMPS WARMING SLOWLY WITH NR 70 THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAKE A RETURN FRIDAY WITH LOWER 70S IN MOST
AREAS. DID NOT BRING IN ANY PRECIP TO NRN FCST AREA
FRIDAY....UKMET ONLY MODEL SHOWING SOME PRECIP IN FAR NRN VALLEY
DUE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU MANITOBA.
THERE IS GENERALLY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE VARIOUS
DYNAMIC MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. UPPER AIR
PATTERN SUGGESTS A FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LESS BLOCKING TO
THE EAST SUPPORTS THE FASTER MOVEMENT.
SHOULD THE GFS VERIFY THE CONVECTION LATE ON SATURDAY COULD BE
ROBUST. FRONT TIMING AT 00Z SUNDAY WITH PWATS >1.3...MUCAPE OVER
1500 AND FAIRLY STRONG 700 WAA/CAA COUPLET ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH GFS...BUT IS
MORE STABLE. ALSO...THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO MORE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM SO SURFACE SYSTEM IS STRETCHED AND NOT SO FOCUSED.
FOR SUNDAY THE MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...AGREE WITH CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR WRAP AROUND SHRA. IN THE W/NW
FLOW WEE WILL HAVE COOLER MID LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND SOME CAPE PAINTED. ECMWF SHOWS MORE QPF WITH THE UPPER
SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH...SUPPORTED BY THE DGEX AND GFS. THIS SLOWER
MOTION STILL MAKES SENSE IN LIGHT OF LINGERING BLOCK WELL TO THE
EAST.
AS A RESULT THE BELOW MEDIAN TEMPERATURE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE BLOCKING PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AS PART OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FRONT END OF A PATTERN CHANGE...OF SORTS.
MODELS HINT AT RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN EARNEST AHEAD OF EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING. THICKNESS SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE IN THE
NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH E/NE WINDS CONTINUING AND
BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT IF MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT OUT
OF FORECAST WITH CLEARING LINE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY RIVER FORECAST POINT REMAINING ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE IS ON THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK...WHERE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO RECEDE. THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON ALSO CONTINUES TO
FALL. SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF MAY LEAD TO MODEST ADDITIONAL RISES
BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON THE FOREST RIVER AT MINTO THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. GRADUALLY FALLING RIVER STAGES ARE EXPECTED ON CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED RIVER. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO MAY
BRIEFLY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DUE TO RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1253 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 CDT WED JUN 5 2013
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD ADVISORY OVER MCLEAN COUNTY INTO FRIDAY.
WILL EVALUATE EXTENDING THE REMAINING FLOOD ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST HAS REMAIN LARGELY THE SAME...AND WENT WITH GUIDANCE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE MAX TEMPS IN THE
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 CDT WED JUN 5 2013
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD ADVISORY OVER WARD...RENVILLE...
BOTTINEAU...MCHENRY...PARTS OF BURKE...AND PARTS OF MOUNTRAIL INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL EVALUATE EXTENDING THE REMAINING FLOOD
ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST HAS REMAIN LARGELY THE
SAME...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POP UP SHOWERS IN THE WEST WHERE
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST LARGELY OK. WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINING
COUNTIES WITHIN THE WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS THE EXITING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL EVIDENT AS
FAR WEST AS GLEN ULLIN. THE 02 THROUGH 06 UTC HRRR...ALONG
WITH OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS...HAS MAINTAINED THE IDEA THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
BASED ON THE REDUCED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEVIATES FROM THE HRRR THINKING AND
CLEARS OUT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FLOOD WATCHES...ADVISORIES...AND WARNINGS HAVE ALL BEEN
MAINTAINED SO THAT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CAN BE CONTACTED TO
ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF AREAL AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
MORNING.
PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT HAS ONLY MANAGED
TO FORM AT JAMESTOWN THUS FAR. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING HIGHER AT OTHER LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A FEW
TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES FOR
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
THE PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING EAST OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER
MY WEST AND NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME.
BOTH THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON NEAREST TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED GREAT LAKES OPEN WAVE. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AM
NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
WEAK S/WV RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN SINC FOR THE ONSET OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE GEM/NAM/AND ECMWF WITH A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE AND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK BY AROUND 6
HOURS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH AFTERNOON
POPS FAR WEST AND NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
BASED ON THE ADVERTISED LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL MAY
SEE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR WINDS.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES. A THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOW STRONG
AND WHERE DEPENDS ON HOW FAST A SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE WEST TO EAST SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH DAKOTA IS KEEPING LOW
STRATUS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE
THE REGION AS IFR CONDITIONS AT JMS WILL REMAIN TIL AROUND 00Z.
WITH ALL THE SURFACE MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS DO EXPECT
SOME FOR FORMATION OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAIN ON THE DENSITY
AND EXTENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED.
POINTS ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO THE
INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE MONDAY. EARLIER
ISSUED NEW FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE DES LACS RIVER AT FOXHOLM WITH
THE STAGE RAPIDLY RISING TO MAJOR FLOOD. A CREST OF 20 FEET IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ISSUED A
NEW WARNING FOR MINOT 4NW...WITH THE FORECAST GOING FROM MINOR TO
MAJOR MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE ON THE DES LACS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...MM
HYDROLOGY...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1005 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
15 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS FROM BEMIDJI
TO DETROIT LAKES TO FERGUS FALLS AND WAHPETON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 00
UTC TONIGHT. STARTING TO SEE SOME SUN ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND THINK THIS CLEARING SHOULD VERY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON LATEST RAP 925 TO 850 HPA RH PROFILE.
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
SO DECREASED TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS A FEW DEGREES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH. UPDATED POPS/WX/SKY/TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR ABOVE THINKING AND LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SFC LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF WAHPETON AT 12Z WITH UPPER LOW ALONG THE
ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA. FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTN AS IT MOVES EAST. BIG ISSUE
IS CLEARING TREND TODAY. CLEARING ENTERING FAR NW FCST AREA AND
THIS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST...BUT ALSO WITH LOTS OF 850 MB MOISTURE
WONDER IF WITH ANY SUN IT WILL CU UP. WILL LET FFA EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SFC LOW OVER VALLEY CITY AT 08Z WITH 500 MB LOW JUST SOUTH. MAIN
RAIN AREA HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST TOWARD BRAINERD-DULUTH-GRAND RAPIDS
MN AREAS. BUT FEED OF SHOWERS EXTENDS WEST INTO GRAND FORKS AREA
THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD JAMESTOWN. BUT THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT
BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH HEAVY RAINFALL. PAST 24-36 HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HIGHEST IN THE GRAND FORKS COUNTY REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
1.30 TO 2 INCHES WITH OTHER POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO SOUTHERN
WALSH AND NORTHWEST POLK COUNTIES WEST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
REGION. COORD WITH WFO BIS WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH TIL 12Z
EXPIRATION. HAVE HEARD NO ISSUES WITH FLOODING ANYWHERE FORTUNATELY.
AROUND SFC LOW IS SOME FOG WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AREA WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT IT WILL TAKE
MOST OF THE DAY FOR ALL PRECIP TO MOVE OUT. WILL HANG ONTO THE
CLOUDS A BIT LONGER THAN PREV FCST AS WELL...SOME CLEARING
ENTERING NW ND INTO WINNIPEG AND THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST...BUT HIGH 850 MB MOISTURE MAY MEAN SOME CUMULUS
REDEVELOPMENT WITH ANY SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
CLEARING...BUT 850 MB REMAINS STUBBORN SO FULL CLEARING MAY TAKE A
WHILE. TEMPS WARMING SLOWLY WITH NR 70 THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAKE A RETURN FRIDAY WITH LOWER 70S IN MOST
AREAS. DID NOT BRING IN ANY PRECIP TO NRN FCST AREA
FRIDAY....UKMET ONLY MODEL SHOWING SOME PRECIP IN FAR NRN VALLEY
DUE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU MANITOBA.
THERE IS GENERALLY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE VARIOUS
DYNAMIC MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. UPPER AIR
PATTERN SUGGESTS A FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LESS BLOCKING TO
THE EAST SUPPORTS THE FASTER MOVEMENT.
SHOULD THE GFS VERIFY THE CONVECTION LATE ON SATURDAY COULD BE
ROBUST. FRONT TIMING AT 00Z SUNDAY WITH PWATS >1.3...MUCAPE OVER
1500 AND FAIRLY STRONG 700 WAA/CAA COUPLET ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH GFS...BUT IS
MORE STABLE. ALSO...THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO MORE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM SO SURFACE SYSTEM IS STRETCHED AND NOT SO FOCUSED.
FOR SUNDAY THE MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...AGREE WITH CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR WRAP AROUND SHRA. IN THE W/NW
FLOW WEE WILL HAVE COOLER MID LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND SOME CAPE PAINTED. ECMWF SHOWS MORE QPF WITH THE UPPER
SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH...SUPPORTED BY THE DGEX AND GFS. THIS SLOWER
MOTION STILL MAKES SENSE IN LIGHT OF LINGERING BLOCK WELL TO THE
EAST.
AS A RESULT THE BELOW MEDIAN TEMPERATURE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE BLOCKING PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AS PART OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FRONT END OF A PATTERN CHANGE...OF SORTS.
MODELS HINT AT RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN EARNEST AHEAD OF EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING. THICKNESS SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
CIGS IFR OR LOW END MVFR THRU MID MORNING...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING
SOME THRU THE DAY WITH SOME VFR EITHER SCT OR BKN CU DVL REGION
THIS AFTN INTO GFK-FAR BY 00Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY AND LIGHT BY THIS EVE. TIMING OF CIG
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FORECAST WISE TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY DUE TO EXPIRE AT 12Z /7AM CDT/
AND WILL LET THAT GO. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z /10
AM CDT/ FOR A SMALL PART OF THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL ALLOW THAT TO EXPIRE AS WELL.
ONGOING FLOOD ADVISORY FOR WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RECENT RAINS WILL ONLY SERVE TO AGGRAVATE THAT SITUATION.
OBS AND MPE SHOW A BAND OF 1.5 TO LOCALLY 2.25 INCHES FROM NEAR
FOSSTON TO THIEF RIVER FALLS...WARREN MINNESOTA. ANOTHER POCKET OF
2+ INCHES CENTRAL GRAND FORKS COUNTY AND THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MINTO RISING BACK TO JUST AT FIS BUT
SUSPECT THIS IS TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF 1.5 TO 2+ INCHES IN THE HICKSON AREA.
THIS HAS CAUSED MINOR BUMPS IN THE MAINSTEM AT HICKSON AND FARGO.
OTHERWISE FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH FORECAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 CDT WED JUN 5 2013
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD ADVISORY OVER WARD...RENVILLE...
BOTTINEAU...MCHENRY...PARTS OF BURKE...AND PARTS OF MOUNTRAIL INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL EVALUATE EXTENDING THE REMAINING FLOOD
ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST HAS REMAIN LARGELY THE
SAME...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POP UP SHOWERS IN THE WEST WHERE
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST LARGELY OK. WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINING
COUNTIES WITHIN THE WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS THE EXITING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL EVIDENT AS
FAR WEST AS GLEN ULLIN. THE 02 THROUGH 06 UTC HRRR...ALONG
WITH OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS...HAS MAINTAINED THE IDEA THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
BASED ON THE REDUCED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEVIATES FROM THE HRRR THINKING AND
CLEARS OUT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FLOOD WATCHES...ADVISORIES...AND WARNINGS HAVE ALL BEEN
MAINTAINED SO THAT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CAN BE CONTACTED TO
ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF AREAL AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
MORNING.
PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT HAS ONLY MANAGED
TO FORM AT JAMESTOWN THUS FAR. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING HIGHER AT OTHER LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A FEW
TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES FOR
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
THE PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING EAST OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER
MY WEST AND NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME.
BOTH THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON NEAREST TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED GREAT LAKES OPEN WAVE. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AM
NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
WEAK S/WV RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN SINC FOR THE ONSET OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE GEM/NAM/AND ECMWF WITH A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE AND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK BY AROUND 6
HOURS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH AFTERNOON
POPS FAR WEST AND NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
BASED ON THE ADVERTISED LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL MAY
SEE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR WINDS.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES. A THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOW STRONG
AND WHERE DEPENDS ON HOW FAST A SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE WEST TO EAST SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 957 CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH DAKOTA IS KEEPING LOW
STRATUS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN BIS AND
JMS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 20Z. REMAINING SITES WILL STAY IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED.
POINTS ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO THE
INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE MONDAY. EARLIER
ISSUED NEW FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE DES LACS RIVER AT FOXHOLM WITH
THE STAGE RAPIDLY RISING TO MAJOR FLOOD. A CREST OF 20 FEET IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ISSUED A
NEW WARNING FOR MINOT 4NW...WITH THE FORECAST GOING FROM MINOR TO
MAJOR MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE ON THE DES LACS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...MM
HYDROLOGY...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
641 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST LARGELY OK. WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINING
COUNTIES WITHIN THE WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS THE EXITING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL EVIDENT AS
FAR WEST AS GLEN ULLIN. THE 02 THROUGH 06 UTC HRRR...ALONG
WITH OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS...HAS MAINTAINED THE IDEA THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
BASED ON THE REDUCED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEVIATES FROM THE HRRR THINKING AND
CLEARS OUT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FLOOD WATCHES...ADVISORIES...AND WARNINGS HAVE ALL BEEN
MAINTAINED SO THAT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CAN BE CONTACTED TO
ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF AREAL AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
MORNING.
PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT HAS ONLY MANAGED
TO FORM AT JAMESTOWN THUS FAR. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING HIGHER AT OTHER LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A FEW
TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES FOR
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
THE PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING EAST OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER
MY WEST AND NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME.
BOTH THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON NEAREST TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED GREAT LAKES OPEN WAVE. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AM
NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
WEAK S/WV RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN SINC FOR THE ONSET OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE GEM/NAM/AND ECMWF WITH A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE AND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK BY AROUND 6
HOURS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH AFTERNOON
POPS FAR WEST AND NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
BASED ON THE ADVERTISED LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL MAY
SEE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR WINDS.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES. A THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOW STRONG
AND WHERE DEPENDS ON HOW FAST A SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE WEST TO EAST SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
PERIODS OF LIFR FOG AT KJMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
16Z...THOUGH THERE COULD BE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS VERY CLOSE TO THE AERODROME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR/VFR AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT...WHILE IFR
LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD ON UNTIL AROUND 16Z AT KBIS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED.
POINTS ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO THE
INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE MONDAY. EARLIER
ISSUED NEW FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE DES LACS RIVER AT FOXHOLM WITH
THE STAGE RAPIDLY RISING TO MAJOR FLOOD. A CREST OF 20 FEET IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ISSUED A
NEW WARNING FOR MINOT 4NW...WITH THE FORECAST GOING FROM MINOR TO
MAJOR MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE ON THE DES LACS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...SCHECK/NH
HYDROLOGY...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
402 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS THE EXITING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL EVIDENT AS
FAR WEST AS GLEN ULLIN. THE 02 THROUGH 06 UTC HRRR...ALONG
WITH OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS...HAS MAINTAINED THE IDEA THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
BASED ON THE REDUCED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEVIATES FROM THE HRRR THINKING AND
CLEARS OUT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FLOOD WATCHES...ADVISORIES...AND WARNINGS HAVE ALL BEEN
MAINTAINED SO THAT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CAN BE CONTACTED TO
ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF AREAL AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
MORNING.
PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT HAS ONLY MANAGED
TO FORM AT JAMESTOWN THUS FAR. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING HIGHER AT OTHER LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A FEW
TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES FOR
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
THE PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING EAST OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER
MY WEST AND NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME.
BOTH THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON NEAREST TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED GREAT LAKES OPEN WAVE. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AM
NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
WEAK S/WV RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN SINC FOR THE ONSET OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE GEM/NAM/AND ECMWF WITH A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE AND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK BY AROUND 6
HOURS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH AFTERNOON
POPS FAR WEST AND NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
BASED ON THE ADVERTISED LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL MAY
SEE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR WINDS.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES. A THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOW STRONG
AND WHERE DEPENDS ON HOW FAST A SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE WEST TO EAST SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LIFR FOG AT KJMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL 16Z...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DUE TO
RAIN SHOWERS VERY CLOSE TO THE AERODROME. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR/VFR AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT...WHILE IFR LOW STRATUS WILL
HOLD ON UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...WITH THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY FOR ROLLETTE...PIERCE...SHERIDAN...WELLS
AND FOSTER COUNTIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL THE PAST 2-3
DAYS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ022-023-025.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
107 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING REMAINS ON FLOOD POTENTIAL. RAINFALL
INTENSITY HAS FINALLY LESSENED...AND RIVER RESPONSES ARE BEING
CLOSELY MONITORED. THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN RECEIVED THE GREATEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MONDAY...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES ESTIMATED BY
DOPPLER RADAR BELOW LAKE DARLING. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
AND UPDATED...BUT THE DES LACS AT FOXHOLM IS RESPONDING A LITTLE
FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
AS FOR GRIDDED FORECASTS...A CONSENSUS BLEND OF AVAILABLE NEAR
TERM MODELS KEEPS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 200
CORRIDOR THROUGH MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW. FOG HAS YET TO
FORM...PROBABLY BECAUSE WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 10 KNOTS...SO
FORECASTS STILL ONLY REFLECT PATCHY FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE MAIN PROBLEMS THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE RAIN AND FLOODING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS HAS LED TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...LOCAL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. FLOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOMORROW AS THE
RAIN COMES TO AN END.
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDE...ALTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...00 UTC HRRR...00
UTC RAP. ALSO ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. SOME
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR OR AT ZERO ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS SEEMS TO BE PLAUSIBLE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND A STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER PARKED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...22 UTC HRRR
AND 21 UTC RAP MODELS...INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING IN ERNEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED AND EXTENDED IN
TIME FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATER THIS
EVENING THE LOW WILL DEPART NORTH DAKOTA AND ENTER WESTERN
MINNESOTA BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER AN AREA WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IS
CAUSING EXCESS WATER TO RUN OFF. THIS RUN OFF HAS LED TO SMALL STREAM
AND LOW LAND FLOODING. RUN OFF IS ALSO INFILTRATING THE SOURIS
RIVER BASIN WHERE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION FOR MORE FLOOD RELATED INFORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS CONTINUED HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS
FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON PROPAGATING INTO
MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GUIDANCE FOR ALL FIELDS.
FOR THIS EVENING PRIOR TO SUNSET...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
I-94 CORRIDOR EAST OF BISMARCK AND POINTS SOUTH AS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IS SETTING UP AS WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...FAVORABLE FOR NON-SUPERCELL/LANDSPOUT TORNADOES. THIS
AREA HAS SEEN SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN
SURFACE DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. WITH LARGE
AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE VORTICITY AND LOW LCLS...ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRETCH THE
ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY INTO A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD OR PERHAPS A
WEAK TORNADO.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WITH NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS WHICH PERHAPS RADIATION FOG ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE 12 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
12 UTC ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WITH PAST GFS MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS
STILL FASTER WITH MOVING THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THE RECENT MODEL AGREEMENT GIVES A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL START
FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVE EAST.
MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THIS SYSTEM BEGINS SATURDAY AT 18 UTC WHEN THE
GFS DEVELOPS A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12 UTC SUNDAY.
DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE THE MODELS STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GFS SEVERE
PARAMETERS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SURFACED BASED CAPE ARE ALSO
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF FOR FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HEAVY
DOWN POURS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY IFR CEILINGS AT
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS/KDIK FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. LOOK FOR A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY AFTER 15Z
TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...WITH THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY FOR ROLLETTE...PIERCE...SHERIDAN...WELLS
AND FOSTER COUNTIES. FOR THE WATCH AREA...AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES THROUGH THE
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ022-023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
T HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS FA. SHRA CONTINUE TO ARC AROUND
SURFACE LOW NEAR JMS WHICH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SINCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS FORECAST LOW TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE LATER
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT PCPN EASTWARD. HIGH RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL LAST 24 HOURS IN
LINE WITH THIS THINKING SO TRENDED A GRADUAL DECREASE/EASTWARD
SHIFT IN PCPN/POPS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT POPS AND TEMPERATURES SEEM
IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN OVER THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SOME
LOCALIZED PONDING. ELSEWHERE ARC OF MAINLY MODERATE SHOWERS
CONTINUE FROM NW MN WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE/TRENDS AND RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY BE ON THE WANE OVER WATCH
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN WATCH UNTIL SOME GROUND TRUTH BECOMES
AVAILABLE. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING THE WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN ACROSS
N CENTRAL ND INTO NW FA WEAKENING SO PCPN AREA MAY BE STARTING TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING DID MAKE SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE THIS
UPDATE PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN PCPN BAND HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 AND HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHEST POPS TO THIS AREA. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE CONVECTION CONTINUES HOWEVER LESS COVERAGE SO TRIMMED
BACK ON POPS THIS AREA. THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF
FA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS HOWEVER CELLS HAVE
WEAKENED OVER PAST HOUR. BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAUSING
BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL NOT CHANGE MINIMUMS. SO
FAR NOT SEEING ANY PROBLEM AREAS FOR FLOODING WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL MAINTAIN
WATCH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL UTILIZE THE LATEST HRRR/RAP FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
20 UTC SURFACE LOW IS SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN WITH ITS WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM NEAR GWINNER
TO BROOKINGS SD. THE STACKED SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ESSENTIALLY
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 06 UTC...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THEREAFTER. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...BUT NARROW
CLEAR SLOT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAMESTOWN TO JUST WEST OF
WAHPETON. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL BE PRONE TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS GREATER LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY/
HELICITY IS REALIZED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED.
TO THE NORTH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM WEST OF MINOT TO NEAR LAKOTA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...
BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. WITH WET/SATURATED
SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST ND...CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE 1 TO 2
INCHES ACCUMULATION FROM DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3 TO 4 PLUS INCHES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15
UTC. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF COOL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING BY
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE ALL AGREEABLE WITH
THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE THE USUAL SPEED AND
PLACEMENT ISSUES. CONTINUED THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS. IT IS
LOOKING DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER OR COOLER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND UPPER WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CIGS WILL BE A REAL CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS VARY
BETWEEN MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERAL VFR VSBY. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE AM AS RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW
PROPAGATES EASTWARD. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ALREADY WET
SOILS DUE TO RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...OVERLAND FLOODING
AND FLOODING NEAR AREA RIVERS ARE A CONCERN.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE.
MOST TRIBUTARIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RED RIVER BASIN
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE TWO RIVERS RIVER
AT HALLOCK EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW OR
THURSDAY. CONTINUED INFLOW INTO THE RED IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL
RISES BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVER STAGES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026>030-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1124 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE APPROACHING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND SHOULD IMPACT GAG/WWR BETWEEN 5-7Z. RATHER WARM
7H TEMPS MAY LIMIT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS OVERNIGHT
BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR BRING AN MCS THROUGH A LARGE
PART OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAOMA THROUGH 12-14Z THURSDAY.
WILL MENTION TSRA AT MOST SITES DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS.
WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE...
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING... HOWEVER IT STILL
APPEARS THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF
WESTERN KS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN AFFECT
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE A WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND MAY MOVE NEAR SPS BETWEEN 1-3Z. ANY STORM
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. STORMS MAY
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 6Z AND THEN MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. VERY WARM 7H TEMPS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS CAN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MENTION TSRA AT SITES
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL PEAK LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
ROLL ACROSS A FLATTENED MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS PLACES US IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...FAVORING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT MARCH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. WE CAN
EXPECT ONE OR MORE OF THESE CLUSTERS BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. PERHAPS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD THREAT WILL DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MEANDER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA. A RICH MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE LIFTED UP AND OVER THE
FRONT...AIDED BY A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. THIS RAPID VERTICAL
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN FACT...ISOLATED LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...LEADING TO A
HEIGHTENED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
REMAIN SATURATED FROM FLOODING LAST WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED RIVER
FLOOD THREAT WILL DEVELOP AS RUNOFF REACHES CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
LARGER RIVER BASINS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF FLOODING...AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. THIS
THREAT WILL BE GREATEST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT HEADING INTO THE
NIGHT EACH NIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ENSUE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY...THOUGH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
POTENTIAL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS THIS SLOW MOVING
UPPER WAVE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD BRING US INTO A HOTTER DRIER PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 82 63 76 / 60 30 70 40
HOBART OK 67 89 63 80 / 30 30 60 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 93 68 81 / 20 20 70 40
GAGE OK 66 78 57 77 / 60 50 40 10
PONCA CITY OK 66 77 60 77 / 70 60 60 10
DURANT OK 69 90 70 78 / 30 20 70 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-
050>052.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE WEEK...AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO OUR AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM...LATEST TRENDS FROM THE TCLT INDICATE THAT A CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...NEAR
KUZA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 6 TO 8Z. THE
LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE DECREASE RECENTLY...WITH ALL LIGHTNING IC UP
TO THIS POINT. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
ENCOUNTER LESS UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH. THEREFORE...THE
CLUSTER SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. I WILL
UPDATE THE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY THIS MORNING.
AS OF 1030 PM...STILL A FEW SHWRS LINGERING IN THE N-CENTRAL SC
ATTM...BUT OVERALL...THINGS ARE QUIET. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 745 PM...POPS WERE FURTHER CUT BACK FOR THIS EVENING PER RADAR
AND SAT TRENDS. I DID NOT REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...AS NAM STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTBY
WHILE ATOP INCREASING SELY MOIST LLVL FLOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT
BE AS GOOD AS LAST COUPLE NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...SO WILL
KEEP POPS AT SLGT CHC. OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK.
AS OF 430 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX RIGHT
OVER THE CWFA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ALL
SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE BEHIND THIS VORT...WHICH MAY EXPLAIN
WHY SUCH A HEALTHY CU FIELD ON VIS SAT IS NOT DEVELOPING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE LAPS CAPE IN THE NC MTNS AND NW PIEDMONT ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...WHILE THE UPSTATE AND NE GA HAVE
1000 J/KG TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ALONG SE BORDER OF CWFA. THE CAE RADAR
SHOWS A NWWD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BNDRY APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDLANDS. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS AGREE ON A FEW SHWRS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OUTFLOW...GENERALLY AFT SUNSET. SO I HAVE TRIMMED POP BACK
TO JUST SLGT CHC...FAVORING THE NC MTNS AND THE LWR PIEDMONT CLOSE
TO THE OUTFLOW BNDRY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET EVENING. THE REST
OF THE GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK.
AT 230 PM EDT...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE REMAINS OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
ENE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO ENE...INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT PROFILES ARE NOT CAPPED ON WEDNESDAY.
VERY LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK MID
LEVEL CAP. ALTHOUGH FLOW BECOMES MORE ORTHOGONAL TO ELEVATED TERRAIN
WITH TIME...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LOWERS THE CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHETHER THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF
THE FRONT DRIFTING NORTH...OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE SURGING INTO OUR
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
REMAINS IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED
ON WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING UPSLOPE FLOW AND NO CAP ALOFT SUPPORT A
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL..WITH MAXIMUMS
WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS COVER INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE OHIO
AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WED NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS WRN NC
WED EVENING. THE WAVE ACTUALLY HAS CONVECTIVE ORIGINS AND IT SHOWS
UP WELL ON THE 12 UTC GFS INITIALIZATION AND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE ERN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST WITH A VERY WEAK LOOKING WEDGE SIGNATURE OVER THE
REGION...THOUGH THIS COULD BE MORE THE RESULT OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROUGH. AT ANY RATE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE WEAK OVER THE
REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVER THE SOUTH...AND 10 TO 15
KTS OVER WRN NC. BUT PW/S WILL INCREASE TO 150-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. THIS KIND OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND I
HAVE POPS ACTUALLY INCREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATER AT
NIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ANY CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER
OFF. CONSIDERING THE HIGH PW/S THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
THE GFS TAKES ANOTHER MCV ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL LOW SLOWLY
ORGANIZING NEAR THE NRN YUCATAN SHOULD BEGIN MOVING UP...OR AT LEAST
TOWARED...THE SE COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
TRACKING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MUCH TOO
FAR TO THE WEST...EXHIBITING IT/S USUAL PROBLEMS WITH TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IF IT WERE TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-LANDS WHILE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING A SWATH OF HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WRN CAROLINAS. IT
APPEARS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME THAT WE WILL BE CONTENDING
MORE WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD STILL BRING PLENTY
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AND JUST ADD ANOTHER WRINKLE...IF THE GULF LOW WERE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED...SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE LOW COULD ACTUALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE REGION STARTING LATER ON THU.
BY FRIDAY THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM A WAYS TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH
THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF IS ALMOST 18 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY OUR MOST
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS FROM THE LOW WOULDN/T BE UNTIL FRIDAY. I
ORIGINALLY WROTE THIS SAYING THAT WE WOULD FACE A SEVERE THREAT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF...THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FRIDAY
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS FAIRLY UNSETTLED.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW TRACK...BRINGING IT FARTHER EAST AND
MINIMIZING EFFECTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING DURING THE SAME PERIOD...PRECIPITATION LOOKS
FAIRLY LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY. POPS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND A SECONDARY FRONT
PASSES ON SUNDAY. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO BE CAPPED
FAIRLY WELL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND AND FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TO THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 545Z...LATEST TRENDS FROM THE TCLT INDICATE THAT A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...NEAR KUZA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 6
TO 8Z. THE LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE DECREASE RECENTLY...WITH ALL
LIGHTNING IC UP TO THIS POINT. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER LESS UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE CLUSTER SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS SHOULD LOWER VIS TO 2 MILES AT
TIMES BETWEEN 6 TO 8Z...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A TEMPO. AFTER
8Z...NAM FORECAST SOUNDING AND MOS BLEND INDICATE THAT CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR...POTENTIAL FOR IFR DURING THE PRE DAWN.
CLOUD BASES WILL LINGER MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO VFR BY 16Z. INCREASES IN AFTER
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LFC SHOULD FAVOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
20-23Z...HIGHLIGHTED WITH PROB30. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...AT 545Z...REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. I WILL INITIALIZE
THE 6Z TAF WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KGSP/KGMU/KAVL. KHKY AND KAND
REMAIN VFR...BUT MOS AND NAM SOUNDINGS TIME MVFR BETWEEN 7-8Z. CLOUD
BASES SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE PRE DAWN PERIOD...IFR CLOUDS
LIKELY ACROSS KGSP/KGMU/KAVL...WITH MVFR FOG AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES
WILL LINGER MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...EVENTUALLY
LIFTING TO VFR DURING THE MID DAY. INCREASES IN AFTER INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH LOW LFC SHOULD FAVOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
19-23Z...HIGHLIGHTED WITH PROB30. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY IN A PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RETURN TO
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THU-SAT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 89% HIGH 93% HIGH 90% HIGH 94%
KGSP HIGH 93% HIGH 96% HIGH 97% HIGH 94%
KAVL HIGH 84% HIGH 82% HIGH 86% HIGH 87%
KHKY HIGH 90% HIGH 98% HIGH 89% HIGH 94%
KGMU HIGH 88% HIGH 91% HIGH 97% HIGH 94%
KAND HIGH 87% HIGH 92% HIGH 96% HIGH 87%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH/VISIN
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JOH/VISIN
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
206 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE EARLIER STORMS AFFECTING MIDDLE
TENNESSEE HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR MOVED OUT OF THE MID STATE
ALTOGETHER, LEAVING US WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND A HUMID
ATMOSPHERE. RADAR SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, BUT THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY
WON`T MAKE IT THIS FAR, WITH THE BULK OF TONIGHT`S PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHES IN
FROM THE NW JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. POP`S WILL
DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY AFTER TOMORROW AS ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOES
PARTIAL DRYING. HOWEVER, NAM DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW NEAR LMK
ASSIMILATING INTO A DEEPER GULF LOW AND FINALLY PULLING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY, SO CAN`T
COMPLETELY WIPE OUT POP`S FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER A DRY, COOLER WEEKEND, LOOK FOR A RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POP`S BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS WE SEE THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A STEEP NW FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 68 83 67 82 / 90 70 40 40
CLARKSVILLE 67 82 64 81 / 90 60 40 30
CROSSVILLE 66 78 64 77 / 80 90 60 60
COLUMBIA 69 84 67 82 / 90 70 50 40
LAWRENCEBURG 69 83 66 82 / 80 70 60 40
WAVERLY 68 82 64 81 / 90 60 40 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
112 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-STATE...WITH
TAIL END CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE PLATEAU. THIS SHORTWAVE JUST
ONE OF SEVERAL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24-48HRS. THIS TREND WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHWRS/STMS ACROSS THE
MID-STATE...REDUCING CEILINGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. AFTER CONVECTION
VACATES PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...NEXT WAVE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...SWEEPING ACROSS THE MID-STATE THRU LATE MORNING THU
WITH NEXT IMPULSE. OUTSIDE OF PCPN...CONDITIONS LARGELY VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...CLOSELY MONITORING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF NASHVILLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL. SO FAR NO WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED, BUT SEVERAL CELLS HAVE REACHED THE "STRONG"
DESCRIPTOR. LATEST HRRR CYCLE SHOWS INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
NASHVILLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE RAISED POP`S THERE TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A LIFTED INDEX OF
-5.5, CAPE OF 1157 J/KG, AND A K-INDEX 31, SO THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE DEFINITELY THERE NOW. YESTERDAY`S STRONG ELEVATED
INVERSION HAS MOSTLY ERODED, AS NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED.
LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC PAINTS THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCE OF THAT WILL BE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...
PER CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SFC OBS...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS W OF I-65 THRU THE MORNING HRS
ALONG WITH MENTIONING MOCLDY SKIES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS TOO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SHOWERS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE...AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT BNA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL CARRY A TEMPO PERIOD FOR TSRA
AT CSV THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS TODAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS MID STATE DURING
THE MORNING HRS TODAY...ANY CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SVR TSTM POTENTIAL
TODAY THRU FRI...AND TEMPS(ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK).
WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SFC OBS...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THRU PRESS TIME FOR FINAL DECISION...AS LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...AND AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THAT SOME OF THESE MAY WORK INTO AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE THIS MORNING PER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE INFLUENCES...AND
DESPITE NOT HAVING THE BEGINNING EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING UNTIL
THE MID MORNING HRS...ISO SHWRS/TSTMS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE MID
STATE THRU THE MORNING HRS TOO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY GOING CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING FROM TODAY THRU THE DAY ON FRI. EXPECT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE POTENTIAL AND THE AFFECTS OF ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING
INFLUENCES...MOST ENHANCED DUE TO ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES PLATEAU
REGION...TO RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. WILL GO CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING WITH HIGHEST SCT POPS PLATEAU TO LESSER CHANCES TO THE W.
WOULD GENERALLY BE SPLITTING HAIRS IN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EURO/GFS/NAM MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL JUST GO CLOSE TO GFS MOS
VALUES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...LOWER 80S ACROSS PLATEAU
REGION.
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE AS A
SFC FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE MID STATE ALONG WITH POSSIBLY OTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT AND INTO THU. BELIEVE
SHWRS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN NATURE BY LATE TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST
ISO TSTMS TOWARD THE MORNING HRS...WITH NUMEROUS...TO CATEGORICAL
PLATEAU WHERE ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN COME INTO
PLAY...SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU. EXPECT THE SFC FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE MID STATE THU NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH E OF THE MID
STATE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY ON FRI...WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING INFLUENCES PLAYING A ROLE AGAIN IN USHERING POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION TOO...THUS SUPPORTING CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. AS FOR TEMPS....WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN EURO/GFS/NAM VALUES EXPECT FOR ON
THU...WHERE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT TOO WARM OF TEMPS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED...AND THUS IN THIS
CASE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD EURO/NAM VALUES.
AS FOR TODAY THRU FRI...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE THE MID STATE WITHIN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA. WITH EVERYTHING CONSIDERED...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ORGANIZED SVR TSTM POTENTIAL...BUT BELIEVE THAT
STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE BEING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TOTAL GRIDDED QPF
VALUES FROM TODAY THRU FRI SHOW GENERALLY THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR FRI NIGHT THRU THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR THE
CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DECREASE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE AS THE NIGHT TIME HOURS PROGRESS...LEADING TO BUILDING SFC
RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL THUS
KEEP MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY ON SAT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS PER DIURNAL BASED LIFTING MECHANISMS PLATEAU...AND
CONTINUE THIS TREND ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS FOR LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER AS A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN FLOW ALOFT ALONG
WITH SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE OR JUST
SLIGHTLY N OF THIS...TO AID IN MAINLY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS NRN PORTIONS
TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS SRN PORTIONS THRU THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THRU
THE WEEKEND. AS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST GFS RUN
CONTINUING THE TREND OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF TRYING TO BUILD IN A
SUMMER TYPE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE MID STATE...WHERE THE LATEST
EURO AND DGEX SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS RIDGING FURTHER W. WILL THUS LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO TEMPS THRU THIS TIME PERIOD AND
KEEP THOSE 90-DEG DAYS AGAIN AT BAY FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER TOO.
31
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED K-INDEX VALUE
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1015 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CLOSELY MONITORING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF NASHVILLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL. SO FAR NO WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED, BUT SEVERAL CELLS HAVE REACHED THE "STRONG"
DESCRIPTOR. LATEST HRRR CYCLE SHOWS INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
NASHVILLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE RAISED POP`S THERE TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A LIFTED INDEX OF
-5.5, CAPE OF 1157 J/KG, AND A K-INDEX 31, SO THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE DEFINITELY THERE NOW. YESTERDAY`S STRONG ELEVATED
INVERSION HAS MOSTLY ERODED, AS NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED.
LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC PAINTS THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCE OF THAT WILL BE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...
PER CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SFC OBS...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS W OF I-65 THRU THE MORNING HRS
ALONG WITH MENTIONING MOCLDY SKIES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS TOO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SHOWERS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE...AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT BNA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL CARRY A TEMPO PERIOD FOR TSRA
AT CSV THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS TODAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS MID STATE DURING
THE MORNING HRS TODAY...ANY CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SVR TSTM POTENTIAL
TODAY THRU FRI...AND TEMPS(ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK).
WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SFC OBS...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THRU PRESS TIME FOR FINAL DECISION...AS LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...AND AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THAT SOME OF THESE MAY WORK INTO AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE THIS MORNING PER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE INFLUENCES...AND
DESPITE NOT HAVING THE BEGINNING EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING UNTIL
THE MID MORNING HRS...ISO SHWRS/TSTMS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE MID
STATE THRU THE MORNING HRS TOO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY GOING CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING FROM TODAY THRU THE DAY ON FRI. EXPECT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE POTENTIAL AND THE AFFECTS OF ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING
INFLUENCES...MOST ENHANCED DUE TO ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES PLATEAU
REGION...TO RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. WILL GO CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING WITH HIGHEST SCT POPS PLATEAU TO LESSER CHANCES TO THE W.
WOULD GENERALLY BE SPLITTING HAIRS IN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EURO/GFS/NAM MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL JUST GO CLOSE TO GFS MOS
VALUES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...LOWER 80S ACROSS PLATEAU
REGION.
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE AS A
SFC FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE MID STATE ALONG WITH POSSIBLY OTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT AND INTO THU. BELIEVE
SHWRS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN NATURE BY LATE TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST
ISO TSTMS TOWARD THE MORNING HRS...WITH NUMEROUS...TO CATEGORICAL
PLATEAU WHERE ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN COME INTO
PLAY...SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU. EXPECT THE SFC FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE MID STATE THU NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH E OF THE MID
STATE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY ON FRI...WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING INFLUENCES PLAYING A ROLE AGAIN IN USHERING POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION TOO...THUS SUPPORTING CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. AS FOR TEMPS....WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN EURO/GFS/NAM VALUES EXPECT FOR ON
THU...WHERE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT TOO WARM OF TEMPS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED...AND THUS IN THIS
CASE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD EURO/NAM VALUES.
AS FOR TODAY THRU FRI...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE THE MID STATE WITHIN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA. WITH EVERYTHING CONSIDERED...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ORGANIZED SVR TSTM POTENTIAL...BUT BELIEVE THAT
STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE BEING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TOTAL GRIDDED QPF
VALUES FROM TODAY THRU FRI SHOW GENERALLY THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR FRI NIGHT THRU THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR THE
CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DECREASE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE AS THE NIGHT TIME HOURS PROGRESS...LEADING TO BUILDING SFC
RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL THUS
KEEP MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY ON SAT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS PER DIURNAL BASED LIFTING MECHANISMS PLATEAU...AND
CONTINUE THIS TREND ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS FOR LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER AS A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN FLOW ALOFT ALONG
WITH SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE OR JUST
SLIGHTLY N OF THIS...TO AID IN MAINLY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS NRN PORTIONS
TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS SRN PORTIONS THRU THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THRU
THE WEEKEND. AS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST GFS RUN
CONTINUING THE TREND OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF TRYING TO BUILD IN A
SUMMER TYPE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE MID STATE...WHERE THE LATEST
EURO AND DGEX SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS RIDGING FURTHER W. WILL THUS LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO TEMPS THRU THIS TIME PERIOD AND
KEEP THOSE 90-DEG DAYS AGAIN AT BAY FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER TOO.
31
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
946 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A VORT MAX OVER WESTERN KY WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE A
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN AL/GA WILL BE LIFTING NORTH.
CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE SE
MARGINS OF THE VORT MAX. THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THESE STORMS IS
VERY SLOW. EXPECT THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE MAINLY IN OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION. RUC SOUNDINGS NEAR
TRI APPEAR MORE STABLE THAN NEAR CHA...SO BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS LOW AS SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUT MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG COULD LEAD TO A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT...MAINLY SOUTH
AND WEST.
THE UPDATE WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/SKY/TEMP GRIDS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
631 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL OF OUR NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING AND ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
CONTINUED TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY GOING CALM ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING.
THE QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF ANY PATCHY FOG CAN DEVELOP IN WAKE
OF THE STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED. NAM12 BUFFER AND RUC OPS40 SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 1-2 DEGREE TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR SUBSTANTIAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE NORTH WINDS AND THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE NORTH. WE WILL ABSTAIN FROM INSERTING PATCHY FOG INTO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MONITORING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 08-13Z. FOR NOW...WILL
ONLY MENTION PREVAILING FOG WITH 4SM AT KACT FROM 09-13Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IN THE DFW METROPLEX BUT MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP FOR 4 SM WITH BY THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE. OUTLYING METROPLEX AIRPORTS INCLUDING KAFW MAY HAVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
AN MCV ROTATES TOWARDS EAST TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
EAST BY 6 PM. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT ALL PRECIP WILL EXIT NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT BEHIND
THE MCV AND DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE
CLEARING SKIES...DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT FOR EARLY JUNE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTH. AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FROM NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA.
MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER NORTH TEXAS WEATHER IS IN
STORE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
STATE. EXPECT VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 IN SOME WESTERN ZONES AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 85 64 91 71 / 5 5 5 5 10
WACO, TX 63 87 63 90 71 / 5 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 59 81 61 86 66 / 5 5 5 5 10
DENTON, TX 59 85 60 90 69 / 5 5 5 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 59 82 60 88 67 / 5 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 64 85 65 90 72 / 5 5 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 61 83 61 88 68 / 5 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 64 84 63 88 69 / 5 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 63 86 64 89 70 / 10 10 10 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 59 85 64 89 68 / 5 5 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL OF OUR NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING AND ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
CONTINUED TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY GOING CALM ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING.
THE QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF ANY PATCHY FOG CAN DEVELOP IN WAKE
OF THE STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED. NAM12 BUFFER AND RUC OPS40 SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 1-2 DEGREE TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR SUBSTANTIAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE NORTH WINDS AND THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE NORTH. WE WILL ABSTAIN FROM INSERTING PATCHY FOG INTO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MONITORING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 08-13Z. FOR NOW...WILL
ONLY MENTION PREVAILING FOG WITH 4SM AT KACT FROM 09-13Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSES THE POTENTIAL IN THE DFW METROPLEX BUT MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP FOR 4 SM WITH BY THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE. OUTLYING METROPLEX AIRPORTS INCLUDING KAFW MAY HAVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
AN MCV ROTATES TOWARDS EAST TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
EAST BY 6 PM. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT ALL PRECIP WILL EXIT NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT BEHIND
THE MCV AND DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE
CLEARING SKIES...DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT FOR EARLY JUNE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTH. AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FROM NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA.
MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER NORTH TEXAS WEATHER IS IN
STORE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
STATE. EXPECT VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 IN SOME WESTERN ZONES AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 85 64 91 71 / 5 5 5 5 10
WACO, TX 63 87 63 90 71 / 5 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 59 81 61 86 66 / 5 5 5 5 10
DENTON, TX 59 85 60 90 69 / 5 5 5 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 59 82 60 88 67 / 5 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 64 85 65 90 72 / 5 5 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 61 83 61 88 68 / 5 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 64 84 63 88 69 / 5 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 63 86 64 89 70 / 10 10 10 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 59 85 64 89 68 / 5 5 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1218 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU KGUY AND KDHT AND
SHOULD MOVE THRU KAMA AROUND 09Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FILL IN BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERSIST MUCH OF THIS FCST CYCLE. RETAINED PREVIOUS
FCSTRS IDEA OF AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES. TSTMS AFFECTING
ANY ONE PARTICULAR SITE DURG NEXT 24 HOURS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ELEMENT...
AND HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO ASSESS FURTHER IF NECESSARY.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CANCELLATION OF SVR
TSTM WATCH 277 FOR SRN TX PNHDL.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WHILE A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS OR 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE EITHER A VCTS OR TEMPO GROUP AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MVFR FOR CEILINGS AS LOWER CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE..
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 277.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK WHILE THE
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL TX/OK PANHANDLES. LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
EVENING. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITHIN A 200 MI RADIUS OF KAMA ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CU DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM. LIKE
YESTERDAY HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. EVENING POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AS LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE NEAR THE
FRONT AND DRYLINE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. FURTHERMORE A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET MAY
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD LATER IN THE DAY WED AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AMA CWA...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW
LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER UPSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER SO THE INTENSITY OF DIURNAL
HEATING WILL NOT BE AS GREAT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM...
HAVE DECREASED STORM CHANCES THURS DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH
THE UPPER AIR WX PATTERN DISPLAYING A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES IN THE
EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
POPS WITH THE THINKING THAT ANY CONVECTION FORMING ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
BEYOND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MID WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL QUITE A
WAYS OUT IN TIME.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT...THEREBY PRECLUDING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEK. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD SO ITS LIKELY SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE VERY LITTLE OR NOT EVEN ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
235 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A flat ridge of high pressure will dictate the weather over the
Inland Northwest through the weekend. Above normal afternoon
temperatures and low precipitation chances will be the result.
Winds will be on the breezy side Friday and Saturday. Unsettled
weather conditions remain possible by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A mild night is in store for the Inland Northwest
tonight. An upper level disturbance currently near the Jasper area
in the Canadian Rockies will continue its trek to the east
tonight. The best combination of moisture and synoptic scale lift
will remain well north of the Canadian border tonight. An
isolated shower can`t be ruled out early this evening over the
high peaks around Bonners Ferry. The 1 PM RUC analysis suggests
surface based CAPE up to 200 J/KG over the ridges of the Idaho
Panhandle, but the model suggests some weak capping as well. Any
showers that do develop will be isolated and should decay by 8 PM.
For the remainder of the night, look for bands of cirrus to spill
into the region. The typical evening drainage wind into the
Wenatchee area will probably be enhanced by a bit of marine air
spilling through Stevens Pass. Winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected
in the Wenatchee area through about 9 PM.
Thursday: Temperatures on Thursday should be another 2 to 4
degrees warmer than today over northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. The 850mb temperatures progs from the NAM and GFS
suggest comparable high temperatures for Wenatchee and Moses Lake
compared to today. By late afternoon, the nose of the Polar Jet is
expected to impinge upon southern British Columbia, and the models
prog a minor wiggle in the 500mb flow over the Idaho Panhandle
late in the day. The NAM and SREF produce more shower activity
late in the day than the ECMWF and GFS over the mountains of the
Idaho Panhandle and over the Blue mountains. Even the "wet"
NAM/SREF produce isolated convection at best, so the mention of
shower activity will be limited to a 20 percent chance over the
ridges over the Panhandle and extreme southeast Washington. /GKoch
Thursday night through Sunday...Flat ridge with zonal flow
through it marks this forecast interval. With this in mind the
majority of shortwave disturbances traversing through this flow
will be primarily result in repeat days of afternoon/evening gusty
winds with each passage. Fronts/shortwaves having the best tie
into moisture include the one passing Friday and even then since
there is considerable westerly flow downsloping off the Cascade
mountains keeping a significant rainshadow in place extending into
a good portion of the lowlands so the most significant pop
increase (which isn`t much) is primarily over the mountains near
the British Columbia border and the North Idaho Panhandle.
Forecast temperatures remain on the warm side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti
Sunday night through Wednesday...The Inland Northwest will be under
increasing southerly flow, with potentially more unsettled weather
and continued warm temperatures. While the warm temperatures are
more of a certainty, the details of the transition to southerly
flow has still not been ironed out. This will have an impact on
timing of better precipitation chances. Until a more consensus
solution shows itself, we kept the highest chances for any shower
or thunderstorm over the Idaho panhandle beginning Wednesday.
Otherwise, the temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Only subtle changes have been made to the 18Z TAFS. The
12Z guidance suggests a bit less wind late this afternoon into the
evening, so winds have been adjusted downward. Wenatchee may still
have 3 or 4 hours of gusts in the 15-20kt range with a weak push
of marine air descends through the Wenatchee River Valley. The
evening drainage wind will reinforce the marine push through mid
evening. Elsewhere, winds will generally be less than 10kts and
clouds will be at or above 15 thousand feet. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 57 85 58 82 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 52 84 53 81 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 51 84 55 81 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 58 91 60 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 52 89 53 86 49 82 / 0 10 0 10 10 0
Sandpoint 48 82 50 79 47 76 / 0 10 0 10 10 10
Kellogg 55 81 56 78 52 74 / 0 10 10 10 10 0
Moses Lake 55 89 58 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 62 88 61 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 53 89 54 83 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1248 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
WEAK TO MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
MEDFORD WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA. THIS LINE IS A AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE...SO ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE HOURLY POP AND GRIDS TO
HANDLE THIS. BEHIND THIS BAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE
LOWERED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE MODELS
TRYING TO GENERATE CAPE IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FOR THIS MORNING...WATCHING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS LIFT HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA ALREADY.
THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM FARGO NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE NAM...RAP...AND GFS SHOW THAT
MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES CLIMB TO
AROUND 8.5 C/KM AND SURFACE BASE CAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR AIR
FUNNELS AND NONSUPERCELL TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM FARGO TO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE TWIN
CITIES.
FOR TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A COLD
POCKET OF AIR LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL IN SOME SOME
INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA /ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENING/ FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO COME TO A CONSENSUS THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL EAST THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
/MORE ON THIS THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION/. THE
05.00Z GFS IS CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH A STRONG CAP
LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...ML CAPES ARE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE
3000 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE ON TUESDAY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR CLIMBS ABOVE
40 KNOTS WHICH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...THERE
WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION WITH EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...THE 0-1 KM
HELICITY CLIMBS INTO THE 200 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING
EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FOR
THE GREATEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
THIS WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECASTS
AREA. IT WOULD IMPLY THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. SINCE THE THE ECMWF USUALLY DOES THE BEST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND NEITHER MODEL HAS BEEN THAT CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST WEEK...WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
KRST/KLSE REMAIN ON THE NORTH/EAST SIDE OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE
HAS KEPT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS. FOR
TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AT KRST/KLSE.
HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LIFR AT KRST AND IFR AT KLSE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO...GOOD HINTS IN THE
MODEL SIGNALS THAT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS SO HAVE INCLUDED THAT FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THIS MORNING AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE FELL TO ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 9 FEET
AROUND 7 PM ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IT CONTINUED TO FALL OVERNIGHT.
WITH ITS LATEST STAGE AROUND 8.6 FEET...WILL BE DROPPING THIS
FLOOD WARNING SHORTLY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 05.00Z GFS BRINGS A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
FROM 1.5 INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING
INTO THE THE REGION...CONCERNED THAT THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME
RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS
FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...ITS FLOODING
THREAT WOULD EXIST FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO THE BOOT HEAL OF MISSOURI. SINCE THE ECMWF TYPICALLY VERIFIES
THE BEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENCY
ISSUES DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL NOT ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
/ESF/ AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
612 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
WEAK TO MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
MEDFORD WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA. THIS LINE IS A AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE...SO ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE HOURLY POP AND GRIDS TO
HANDLE THIS. BEHIND THIS BAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE
LOWERED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE MODELS
TRYING TO GENERATE CAPE IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FOR THIS MORNING...WATCHING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS LIFT HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA ALREADY.
THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM FARGO NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE NAM...RAP...AND GFS SHOW THAT
MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES CLIMB TO
AROUND 8.5 C/KM AND SURFACE BASE CAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR AIR
FUNNELS AND NONSUPERCELL TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM FARGO TO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE TWIN
CITIES.
FOR TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A COLD
POCKET OF AIR LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL IN SOME SOME
INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA /ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENING/ FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO COME TO A CONSENSUS THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL EAST THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
/MORE ON THIS THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION/. THE
05.00Z GFS IS CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH A STRONG CAP
LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...ML CAPES ARE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE
3000 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE ON TUESDAY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR CLIMBS ABOVE
40 KNOTS WHICH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...THERE
WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION WITH EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...THE 0-1 KM
HELICITY CLIMBS INTO THE 200 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING
EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FOR
THE GREATEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
THIS WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECASTS
AREA. IT WOULD IMPLY THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. SINCE THE THE ECMWF USUALLY DOES THE BEST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND NEITHER MODEL HAS BEEN THAT CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST WEEK...WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LINE OF SHOWERS FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
IS MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
KLSE BY 13Z. BEHIND THE SHOWERS...BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
GO DOWN TO MVFR AS THE RAIN HELPS TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. ONCE THE
CEILINGS GO DOWN...NOT EXPECTING THESE TO IMPROVE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLSE SHOULD HOPEFULLY
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT KRST WILL
HAVE SOME FOG AND A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD
SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR KBWP MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
05.06Z NAM SHOWS UP TO 500 J/KG OF ML CAPE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REGENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. NOT SURE HOW WIDE SPREAD THE SHOWERS WILL BE SO WILL
SHOW CATEGORICAL SHOWERS AT BOTH SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH NO
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTION TO THE VISIBILITY. CONFIDENCE ON THE
THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
END THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE MOVES BY. WITH ALL THE RECENT
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE FOG FORM AT
BOTH SITES WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. CONCERNED THAT KRST COULD GO
DOWN TO IFR BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT FOR NOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THIS MORNING AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE FELL TO ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 9 FEET
AROUND 7 PM ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IT CONTINUED TO FALL OVERNIGHT.
WITH ITS LATEST STAGE AROUND 8.6 FEET...WILL BE DROPPING THIS
FLOOD WARNING SHORTLY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 05.00Z GFS BRINGS A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
FROM 1.5 INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING
INTO THE THE REGION...CONCERNED THAT THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME
RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS
FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...ITS FLOODING
THREAT WOULD EXIST FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO THE BOOT HEAL OF MISSOURI. SINCE THE ECMWF TYPICALLY VERIFIES
THE BEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENCY
ISSUES DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL NOT ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
/ESF/ AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
554 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
WEAK TO MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
MEDFORD WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA. THIS LINE IS A AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE...SO ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE HOURLY POP AND GRIDS TO
HANDLE THIS. BEHIND THIS BAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE
LOWERED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE MODELS
TRYING TO GENERATE CAPE IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FOR THIS MORNING...WATCHING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS LIFT HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA ALREADY.
THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM FARGO NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE NAM...RAP...AND GFS SHOW THAT
MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES CLIMB TO
AROUND 8.5 C/KM AND SURFACE BASE CAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR AIR
FUNNELS AND NONSUPERCELL TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM FARGO TO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE TWIN
CITIES.
FOR TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A COLD
POCKET OF AIR LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL IN SOME SOME
INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA /ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENING/ FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO COME TO A CONSENSUS THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL EAST THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
/MORE ON THIS THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION/. THE
05.00Z GFS IS CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH A STRONG CAP
LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...ML CAPES ARE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE
3000 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE ON TUESDAY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR CLIMBS ABOVE
40 KNOTS WHICH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...THERE
WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION WITH EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...THE 0-1 KM
HELICITY CLIMBS INTO THE 200 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING
EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FOR
THE GREATEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
THIS WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECASTS
AREA. IT WOULD IMPLY THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. SINCE THE THE ECMWF USUALLY DOES THE BEST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND NEITHER MODEL HAS BEEN THAT CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST WEEK...WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
HELP RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LIFT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER MVFR BY SUNRISE AS THE
SHRA MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE. VSBY SHOULD REMAIN MVFR IN THE RAIN.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AS ONE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST IN THE
MORNING AND SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD...IT APPEARS SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND THU
MORNING...BUT DETAILS ON THE EXTENT AND VSBY RESTRICTION ARE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CLEARING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THIS MORNING AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE FELL TO ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 9 FEET
AROUND 7 PM ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IT CONTINUED TO FALL OVERNIGHT.
WITH ITS LATEST STAGE AROUND 8.6 FEET...WILL BE DROPPING THIS
FLOOD WARNING SHORTLY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 05.00Z GFS BRINGS A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
FROM 1.5 INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING
INTO THE THE REGION...CONCERNED THAT THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME
RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. MEANWHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS THIS
FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...ITS FLOODING
THREAT WOULD EXIST FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO THE BOOT HEAL OF MISSOURI. SINCE THE ECMWF TYPICALLY VERIFIES
THE BEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENCY
ISSUES DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL NOT ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
/ESF/ AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A BIT OF A LULL COMING IN THE RAIN...BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME MARGINAL STABILITY IS SEEN IN THE RADAR
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POST THE RAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AT
THIS TIME. HAVE TIMED A BACK EDGE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EXITING CENTRAL WI BY MIDNIGHT.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL REDEVELOPMENT TAKE. HAVE BEEN
MONITORING THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING EJECTING EAST
AND EXCITING THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IN CO. THIS WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SPOKE AROUND THE WHEEL OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL/MOVE THE LOW
EASTWARD AND WORK WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN
DEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNRISE. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS DEPICTED IN
THE LATEST RAP AND 05.00Z NAM TO BECOME CONFLUENT ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE IN WRN IA AND WRN MN SHIFT
EAST. KMPX 00Z RAOB ON ERN EDGE OF THAT TONGUE NOW WITH SATURATION
DOWN TO 900MB...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOWER CEILINGS IN
THE NEAR IFR CATEGORY WEST OF I-35. AS THIS ADVECTS EAST AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT
ALOFT...SHRA SHOULD AGAIN BREAK OUT IN THE WRN FORECAST AREA...AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A BAND OF SHRA SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM SW-NE BY
MORNING...AND SHIFTING EAST. HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE THIS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH INSTABILITY STILL AROUND SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED LIFT KICKS IN.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD THEN SEE A BREAK AFTER THE MORNING SHRA SHIFT
EAST. DEPENDING ON IF THE SUN COMES OUT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY /CURRENTLY ALONG DAKOTAS-MN
BORDER/ SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS/SHRA EXISTS BY AFTERNOON. RIGHT
NOW...IT SEEMS CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE BOUNDARY VERY CLOSE TO THE
MISS RIVER OR SLIGHTLY WEST...AROUND AFTERNOON AND THE WIND SHIFT MOVING
VERY SLOWLY AS THE LOW TRANSLATES SE. 05.00Z NAM HAS REDUCED THE
CAPE BY 50 PERCENT VERSUS 04.18Z RUN...IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
REALLY MAKES SENSE...IT HAS LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WHICH
IS REASONABLE. WIND SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT CAPE SEEMS TO BE QUITE
LOW...500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW AND HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME
CURVATURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT
SEVERE STORM THREATS LOOK QUITE MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW IS ON THE PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER WITH THIS RAIN.
CURRENTLY...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ANALYZED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL IOWA.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE POKING UP INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA PER 04.18Z RAP ANALYSIS. BECAUSE OF THIS...THUNDER
HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CELLS TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN GREATLY LIMITED FROM GREEN BAY WEST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE RAIN HAS NOT LET UP FOR MUCH
OF TODAY.
AS THIS FIRST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATER IN THE EVENING. DEEP LIFT WILL
OCCUR AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH. WHILE THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THAT CAN HEAT UP A BIT. A NARROW CHANNEL
OF 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE DOES APPEAR TO FORM
AHEAD OF THIS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND COULD LEAD TO SOME
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THIS LINE. THIS IS ALL CONDITIONAL UPON
SKIES CLEARING OUT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY UP HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS DECENT AT 40
KTS...BUT IS UNIDIRECTIONAL ALOFT WITH NOT MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ZERO. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRENDING THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE MID TO SURFACE LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE IN WITH IT. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
WHILE THE OVERALL IDEA FOR THE 500MB PATTERN IS SIMILAR GOING INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO
THE REGION...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES OF THIS VORT MAX
BETWEEN THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM. THE 04.12Z ECMWF DIVES THE
TROUGH FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH WHICH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 04.12Z GFS/GEM TAKE THE
TROUGH MORE WEST TO EAST AND KEEPS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHICH SOLUTION
WILL BE CORRECT...THEY ALL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TIMING OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDING ON SUNDAY
THOUGH THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING A TAD SLOWER WITH THE CLEARING.
NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS LIFTS A WARM FRONT
BACK INTO THE REGION. LEFT SOME SMALL CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
HELP RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LIFT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER MVFR BY SUNRISE AS THE
SHRA MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE. VSBY SHOULD REMAIN MVFR IN THE RAIN.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AS ONE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST IN THE
MORNING AND SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD...IT APPEARS SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND THU
MORNING...BUT DETAILS ON THE EXTENT AND VSBY RESTRICTION ARE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CLEARING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
320 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG
I80 FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY NEBRASKA. RAIN HAS BEEN MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...AND HAS BEEN TRAINING OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS SINCE LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
110KT JET MAX PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD COME
TO AND END BY NOON TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 60 TO 65 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS CARBON AND CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 5C. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS THE I80 SUMMIT THIS
MORNING.
COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S LIKELY. WITH CLEARING SKIES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
KEEP FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDER SHOWER NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...WARMEST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND IN THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
STILL HAVE SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA.
MODELS PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE PANHANDLE AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. BUT IT IS REAL SPOTTY AND WOULD THINK MOST
LOCATIONS ARE GOING TO BE DRY. DID DECREASE POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOK COMPLETELY DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +16C OUT OVER
CARBON COUNTY. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAKING IT BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TURNS WINDS EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TADS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO
LARAMIE. LATEST HR RR RUN SHOWING THIS AREA GOING DOWN IN MFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT 08Z AT KS NY AND THE 09-10Z TIME FRAME
FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SHOWING
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF AN ALLIANCE TO HARRINGTON LINE.
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPING FLOW...WOULD BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE IDEAL
FOR UPSLOPE STRATUS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOIST EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED TODAY EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE THIS WEEK. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TET
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1131 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE DROVE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON MON AFTN...WHICH STALLED OVER NORTHERN CO
AND IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WAS EVIDENT OVER NORTHWEST WY PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...AND IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM LATE THIS AFTN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS FALL TO 0-2C IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP
TODAY...ONLY AROUND 6-6.5 DEG C/KM ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH IMPROVED LLVL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD
SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE PER AREA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THAT SAID...ENVIRONMENT
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS PERIOD ONCE
FORCING BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NORTHEAST AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL SET UP MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE...LIKELY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
LATE AFTN. TSTMS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD...BUT SOME
COULD BE STRONG ON THE WYOMING SIDE OF THE CWA. COLD THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SMALL HAIL AS SOUNDINGS SHOW HAIL GROWTH
ZONES CAPES APPROACHING 200 J/KG. WE HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED MENTION
OF GUSTY WINDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL-MIXED WITH A DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER...WHICH COULD SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. MUCH LIKE
LAST EVENING...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY SEVERE STORM
DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY LIMITED THREAT.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY QUICKLY WANES THIS EVE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING...MINIMIZING THE THREAT FOR THUNDER AFTER 02Z
THIS EVE. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN CYS AND SNY LATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
UP-GLIDE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING VERTICAL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER
PCPN RATES WITH LLVL UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALLOW FOR FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT AGL AND GOOD LLVL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. BELIEVE SFC WINDS WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THINGS MIXED AND AVERT FOG...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
MONITOR. HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FCST ATTM.
IF FOG DOES INDEED DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER THE
I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN LAR AND CYS. FOG AND/OR STRATUS COULD BE
TOUGH TO BURN OFF WITH PERSISTENT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WITH
700 MILLIBAR TEMPS NEAR 0C WOULD EXPECT A COOL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. IT WILL
NOT BE UNTIL LATE AFTN WED WHEN THE SHORTWAVE FINALLY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS UNTIL THE WED NIGHT PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
RISING HEIGHTS ON THURS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AS 700MB TEMPS
COME UP AROUND 8C FROM WED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE. THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRI SEEMS TO BECOME WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH EACH MODEL RUN. SFC TROUGH IS STILL ADVERTISED TO BE ALONG
THE WY- NE BORDER DURING THE AFTN WITH AROUND 750-1000 J/KG OF
CAPE IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST
OF THE PLAINS ON FRI AFTN...ALTHOUGH BEST THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WOULD BE IN THE PANHANDLE. VERY WARM WEEKEND IN STORE WITH
700MB TEMPS AROUND 13-16C AND GENERAL WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
IN PLACE. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND
40-50 SFC DEW POINTS ARE ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. FOR
TEMPS DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...DID NOT GO QUITE AS
WARM AS THE MEX GUIDANCE (WHICH SHOWS MID TO UPPER 80S IN
CHEYENNE) BUT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO
LARAMIE. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWING THIS AREA GOING DOWN IN MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT 08Z AT KSNY AND THE 09-10Z TIME FRAME
FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SHOWING
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF AN ALLIANCE TO TORRINGTON LINE.
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPING FLOW...WOULD BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE IDEAL
FOR UPSLOPE STRATUS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MOIST EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND
THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVE...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL BEGIN TO SEE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS AREA FUELS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
540 AM EDT FRI JUNE 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE LONGWAVE RIDGING
COVERS THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA CAN BE SEEN ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE GA/SC COASTLINE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR HAS ARRIVED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...WHILE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE.
AT THE SURFACE...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS RAPIDLY MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT
QUITE A BIT ALONG WITH A QUICK COLLAPSE OF THE GRADIENT AND
ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS. REGIONAL RADAR DOES STILL SHOW ONE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING ASHORE TO THE SOUTH OF FORT
MYERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FORCED ALONG THE
AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BAND BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF ANDREA AND THE REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THIS BAND
HAS DROPPED JUST SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY IN THE PAST HOUR OR 2 AND NOW
IS PRIMARILY MOVING ASHORE IN COLLIER COUNTY. SOME CHANCE THAT THIS
BAND WILL STILL REBOUND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LEE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE A
WHILE LONGER TO THE SOUTH OF FT. MYERS. LATER THIS MORNING GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE BETTER CONVERGENCE WILL SUBSIDE AS ANDREA CONTINUES
TO LOSE INFLUENCE ON THE REGION AND THIS BAND SHOULD WEAKEN OR AT
LEAST BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TODAY...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING...LACK OF
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT MECHANISM AND LACK OF COLUMN MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. HEADING FURTHER SOUTH...COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCT OF SHOWERS TODAY. ASSUMING THAT
THE CONVERGENT BAND OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF FT MYERS DOES INDEED
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN A WASHOUT IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER
THESE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT RATHER JUST SOME BRIEF QUICK MOVING
SHOWERS AFTER THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES LOOK
SEASONABLE WITH INLAND ZONES APPROACHING 90. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN THE 80S TODAY.
TONIGHT...
DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD ADVANCE ONCE AGAIN.
WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE GULF ARE GETTING WARMER...AND THESE
WATERS ALONG WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE RRQ OF AN
UPPER EASTCOAST SPEED MAX WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT THAT SHOULD THEN SPREAD INLAND...MAINLY FROM THE I-4
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. GRIDS SHOW 30-40% COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WITH
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS INCLUDING THE RRQ JET DYNAMICS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH ADDED DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AS WELL. AGAIN...NOT ANTICIPATING A
WASHOUT...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE LIKELY POPS WITH A
GOOD CHANCE AT A SHOWER OR TWO AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY. THE
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AND LIKELY MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS MAY HELP HOLD
MORE LOCATIONS IN THE 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC
POTENTIAL IS RATHER HIGH...SO WILL NOT TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF SUNNY
BREAKS TO APPROACH 90. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. UPPER JET WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO EXIT NORTHEASTWARD...BUT WITH AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SUPPORT
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP 20-30% POPS IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY..
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR THE FINAL DAY
OF THE WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS TIME.
SHOULD SEE THE PATTERN ALLOW AT LEAST A WEAK SEA-BREEZE TO TRY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT E-SE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTHWARD. THESE OPPOSING FLOWS SHOULD MAKE THE WEST COAST OF
THE PENINSULA THE DOMINANT FOCUS FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
SO...AFTER A GENERALLY QUIET MORNING...EXPECTING AN ACTIVE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID CONUS AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE EAST U.S. WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS SOUTH INTO
SOUTH FL BY MIDWEEK. FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES IN TO THE EASTERN STATES...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE U.S.
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION OR AS BROAD TROUGHINESS ACROSS FL IN THE GFS
SOLUTION. THE FRONTAL TROUGH DECAYS AS IT SAGS INTO FL WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST.
INITIAL SW FLOW ALOFT...THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH...AND SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR MAINLY CHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AFTER MIDWEEK
SOME DRYING WORKS IN ON NW FLOW ALOFT...AS THE TROUGH/LOW REACHES
THE EASTERN STATES...THE FRONTAL TROUGHS DISSIPATES...AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO WESTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING MOVES SOUTH THEN EAST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL REBUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS OVERNIGHT. BKN VFR/LCL MVFR WITH VCNTY SHRA
IN THE MORNING. VFR CIGS WITH VCNTY TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE LATE MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARD ONE
TYPICAL OF OF EARLY TO MID JUNE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 75 88 75 / 20 30 60 30
FMY 88 75 89 74 / 50 40 60 30
GIF 90 73 90 73 / 20 30 60 30
SRQ 87 76 88 74 / 30 40 60 30
BKV 90 71 89 70 / 20 30 60 30
SPG 87 76 89 76 / 20 30 60 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-LEE-
MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
413 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...CIRCULATION CENTER OF T.S. ANDREA LIFTING UP THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE ERN
GOMEX IN HER WAKE. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY...
SINKING MID LVL OMEGA VALUES...AND AN UPR LVL AIRMASS THAT IS
LARGELY CONVERGENT. LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS RESPECTABLE WITH
H100-H85 VALUES AOA 60PCT...BUT DIMINISHES TO BLO 50PCT THRU THE
H85-H50 LYR. THE 00Z RAOBS DEPICT THIS WELL WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING FROM 2.2" AT KJAX TO 1.6" AT KTBW. EARLY MORNING RADAR/SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN CONVERGENCE LINE OF SHRAS PUSHING INTO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...SUGGESTING HIGHER MOISTURE AND BETTER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE SRN CWA.
NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON AOB 20PCT POPS N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS
ADVERTISED BY THE 07/00Z GFS MOS OUTPUT...MODEL INDICATES STEEPENING
MID LVL LAPSE RATES THAT ALLOW CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB ABV THE 2000
J/KG MARK OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. DEFINITELY WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES DUE TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE...
BUT WILL KEEP ALL AREAS IN THE SCT CATEGORY.
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY AS ANDREA LIFTS OUT
OF THE LCL SPHERE OF INFLUENCE BUT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...OR AT LEAST
DELAY IT THRU LATE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE L90S AREAWIDE...SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S AREAWIDE WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S.
SAT-SUN...
DRY SLOT IN WAKE OF TC ANDREA IS ADVERTISED TO QUICKLY FILL WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE DURING SAT. BACKED FLOW TO THE SOUTH ASCD WITH ATLC
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHING NEAR THE AREA WILL HELP MOISTURE
ADVECTION. FAVORABLE S-SW STEERING LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH
FORMATION OF SEA BREEZE AND OTHER SFC BOUNDARIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WL LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST AN HALF INCH TO
INCH PCPN OVER A GOOD NUMBER OF AREAS BY SAT EVENING.
DURING SUN RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA. THIS WL
PRODUCE A TREND TOWARD INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND THUS CONCENTRATE
HIGHER POP POTENTIAL INLAND. LIGHT EASTERLY-SE FLOW ALOFT WL NOT
PRECLUDE ANY AREAS HOWEVER FROM A STORM MENTION. RAIN COVERAGE
(SCATTERED) SHOULD BE LESS OVERALL THAN SATURDAY.
NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHCS LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONAL INTO AT LEAST TUE/WED
DUE TO SUITABLE MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. MAP FEATURES OVER THE CONUS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA
MIGRATING EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASCD BROAD TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
WED. SOME LOCAL DRYING IS SHOWN PAST MIDWEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO CLOSE OUT WITH
LOWER THAN NORMAL POP DUE TO SOME DRYING.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 07/14Z...SWRLY WIND SHEAR 20-25KTS BLO FL015...TEMPO MVFR CIGS
BTWN FL015-025. BTWN 07/14Z-07/18Z...VFR ALL SITES...SW SFC WND
G18-22KTS CONTG THRU 07/22Z. BTWN 07/18Z-07/22Z...PROB30 IFR TSRAS N
OF KTIX-KISM...VCTS KMLB/KVRB...SCT IFR TSRAS S OF KVRB-KOBE. AFT
22Z...BCMG VFR ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LATEST OBS FROM BUOYS 009/012 INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS STILL PRESENT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...THOUGH S/SW WINDS AT
009 WERE BORDERLINE. EVEN SO...THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT IS GENERATING
VERY ROUGH WIND WAVES WITH HEIGHTS BTWN 5-6FT...DOMINANT PDS ARND
5SEC. WILL KEEP THE SCA IN PLACE THRU THE NEXT FCST CYCLE. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE BASE OF T.S. ANDREA PRODUCES A MODERATE TO FRESH OFFSHORE
BREEZE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVES OUT OF THE LCL SPHERE OF INFLUENCE...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO AOB 12KTS. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT
OFFSHORE.
NEXT WEEK...PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE WL ALLOW FOR MORE FAVORABLE
WIND AND SEA STATE EARLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEA HGHTS IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE WITH HIGHER SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND GENERALLY A
PRIMARILY LOCAL WIND WAVE COMPONENT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
AT TIMES EXTENDING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS/SEAS HIGHER NEAR STORMS
MOVING OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 74 87 72 / 30 20 60 40
MCO 92 74 89 72 / 30 20 70 40
MLB 89 74 87 73 / 50 30 70 40
VRB 90 74 87 73 / 50 40 70 40
LEE 91 73 90 73 / 30 20 60 40
SFB 93 74 90 73 / 30 20 60 40
ORL 92 74 89 74 / 30 20 70 40
FPR 90 75 87 73 / 50 40 70 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
436 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANDREA CONTINUES TO THE BE INITIAL FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
MAIN IMPACT CONTINUING TO BE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CENTER OF ANDREA
IS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING AND THE RAIN ON THE
WESTERN SIDE CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD THOUGH...THE AREA OF RAIN HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST. BOTH LOCAL WRF AND HRRR ARE
SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA EXITING THE CWA BY
MID MORNING WITH THE LOCAL WRF ABOUT ONE TO TWO HOURS EARLIER THAN
THE HRRR. HAVE SEEN SOME LOW END GUSTS ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA
BUT NOTHING THAT MEETS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
AFTER THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA MOVES OUT...SHOULD HAVE A LULL
IN TERMS OF PRECIP FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR WITH A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADVERTISED LIKELY
/WEST/ TO CHANCE /EAST/ POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY NOT
CARRY HIGHER POPS LATE ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING. BY SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE CWA AND SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE. WITH THIS
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL AGAIN
HAVE A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY.
HYDRO....
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH 24
HOUR MPE VALUES SHOWING AROUND TWO INCHES WITH UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS. THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. COULD SEE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO
AN INCH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH RAINFALL FROM ANDREA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE WESTERN PART OF IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE REST
OF THE WATCH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
11
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INTO THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME PUMP MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH WITH PWATS CLOSING IN
ON 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER WHERE I WILL CARRY HIGH END CHANCE
POPS. FOR MONDAY...MIDWEST TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST AS
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE. GFS IS NOT
NEARLY AS SHARP WITH THE TROUGH OR AS SOUTHERN TRENDING AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE MAINTAINS A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT PERHAPS LESS MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. AT THIS POINT...WITH AT LEAST SOME UPPER ENERGY PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH
END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
ONCE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
BUT LEAVES OUR AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...FAVORABLE FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION OR TIMING THIS
FAR OUT. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
FAVOR THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE UPPER ENERGY LOOKS MOST LIKELY
TO RESIDE. THE MOST POTENT OF THESE LOOKS TO BE ON THU AFTERNOON
AS GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY LINING UP WELL WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER MODEL RUN BUT THESE
POPS MAY TOO NEED TO BE PUSHED HIGHER AS EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES...MCN
AND CSG. ALTHOUGH RAIN FROM ANDREA WILL STAY EAST OF THE OTHER TAF
SITES...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHRA BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE WITH ANDREA
BUT CHANCE OF TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH CIGS AT ATL HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY...SOME INDICATION THAT
THEY COULD GO BACK DOWN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE IFR FOR
NOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON CIGS THOUGH. AS ANDREA MOVES OFF TO THE
NE...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO COME AROUND TO THE NW AND SHOULD
BECOME W BY THE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON LEAVING OUT SHRA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 66 87 65 / 80 40 30 10
ATLANTA 81 66 84 68 / 60 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 78 62 80 61 / 80 30 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 80 63 84 64 / 60 30 20 10
COLUMBUS 85 68 87 69 / 60 20 30 20
GAINESVILLE 80 65 83 66 / 80 30 20 10
MACON 85 67 88 67 / 50 40 30 20
ROME 81 63 84 64 / 60 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 82 63 84 65 / 60 30 30 20
VIDALIA 86 71 89 70 / 50 40 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...
OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
314 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...GENERALLY PATCHY IN NATURE AT UPDATE TIME BUT
TRENDS APPEAR TO BE TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE TO BEEF UP THE FOG...AND INCLUDED SOME LOCALLY DENSE
WORDING AS A FEW OF THE SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN VSBYS DROPPING TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER MILE. WILL UPDATE THE HWO AS WELL. OTHERWISE GRIDS WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE...SO JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS LATEST HOURLY OBS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT WILL NOT EXIT INTO VA UNTIL LATE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...IF
LOW AND MID CLOUDS THIN...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS POINT WITH THE
GRIDS FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT A SFC
BOUNDARY IS SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND ALSO GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND ON INTO MIDDLE TN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN KY. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME CIRRUS AROUND THE OUTER
EDGE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS ALSO WORKED NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OVERHEAD. THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLIP EAST AND SOUTHEAST
INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
EAST KY...THE RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE 21Z HRRR RUN HAS
SOME CONVECTION LINGERING OR POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING LATE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KY AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVED AND SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AN MCV DRIVEN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTED NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO OHIO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...
BUT APPEAR TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LEVELED CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
HELPED TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS IS ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY AND FACILITATING THE
GROWTH OF CONVECTION. EVEN SO...THE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NO MORE THAN SCATTERED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MEANING THAT MOST PLACES WILL MISS OUT ON A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN THAT MANY HAD HOPED FOR. THIS DESPITE THE HIGH PW AIR
MASS IN PLACE.
THE MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE MAIN
FEATURES ALOFT...WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THEY ALL NOW
AGREE THAT TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST
WITH NOTABLY THE NAM NOW ON BOARD...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER AT THE MID
LEVELS THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. SO WHILE THE PATTERN WITH ANDREA
IS SIMILAR... THE NAM IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND WILL AGAIN BE
DISCOUNTED. TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROLONGING LOW HEIGHTS OVER
THE REGION. A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THIS
TRANSITION AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED A
MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE NAM...FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE NIGHT. CAN/T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
FOR FRIDAY...THE INBOUND TROUGH AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST AS ANDREA MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE. DRIER
AIR AND AN END TO THE POP THREAT WILL WORK INTO THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON TAP FOR LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS KEPT THE FOG TO A MINIMUM LAST
NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME FOR TONIGHT...BUT FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...AS
THE CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT LATE.
STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT FOR WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FIRST
24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL USED BEYOND THAT AND ALSO FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES. AGAIN...DID NOT MAKE MANY TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A MOS BLEND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT AN UNSETTLED PICTURE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY
TRUDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
IN THE WEEK WILL KEEP A STOUT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING OUT BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT INTO OUR
REGION... SO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WHILE TAKING ON A
MORE DIURNAL FLAVOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...WEDNESDAY MAY
END UP BEING THE DRIEST DAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...DESPITE A MID LEVEL CIG OVERHEAD. FOG HAS BEEN
GENERALLY PATCHY IN NATURE BUT TRENDS APPEAR TO BE TOWARDS AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WHILE LAMP AND OTHER GUIDANCE HAVE BECOME LESS
PESSIMISTIC...GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING
AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT A FEW LOCATIONS...KLOZ IN PARTICULAR. OPTED TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS A WORST CASE AT KJKL AND KSME. HOWEVER
KLOZ SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN VSBYS AT TAF ISSUANCE...SO
CONTINUED TO CARRY A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THERE FOR WHAT APPEARS
TO BE SOME LOCALIZED BUILD DOWN STRATUS AND FOG. THE BULK OF ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE KY...VA...WV
STATE LINES. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ELSEWHERE BUT THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH THAT ANY MENTION WAS LEFT OUT OF
THE TAFS UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH
A NORTHERLY TENDENCY...ESPECIALLY WHEN WINDS INCREASE ABOVE 4 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
209 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...GENERALLY PATCHY IN NATURE AT UPDATE TIME BUT
TRENDS APPEAR TO BE TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. UPDATED THE
FORECAST PACKAGE TO BEEF UP THE FOG...AND INCLUDED SOME LOCALLY DENSE
WORDING AS A FEW OF THE SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN VSBYS DROPPING TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER MILE. WILL UPDATE THE HWO AS WELL. OTHERWISE GRIDS WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE...SO JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS LATEST HOURLY OBS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT WILL NOT EXIT INTO VA UNTIL LATE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...IF
LOW AND MID CLOUDS THIN...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS POINT WITH THE
GRIDS FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT A SFC
BOUNDARY IS SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND ALSO GRADUALLY EAST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND ON INTO MIDDLE TN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN KY. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME CIRRUS AROUND THE OUTER
EDGE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS ALSO WORKED NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OVERHEAD. THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLIP EAST AND SOUTHEAST
INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
EAST KY...THE RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE 21Z HRRR RUN HAS
SOME CONVECTION LINGERING OR POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING LATE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KY AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVED AND SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AN MCV DRIVEN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTED NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO OHIO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...
BUT APPEAR TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LEVELED CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
HELPED TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS IS ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY AND FACILITATING THE
GROWTH OF CONVECTION. EVEN SO...THE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NO MORE THAN SCATTERED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MEANING THAT MOST PLACES WILL MISS OUT ON A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN THAT MANY HAD HOPED FOR. THIS DESPITE THE HIGH PW AIR
MASS IN PLACE.
THE MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE MAIN
FEATURES ALOFT...WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THEY ALL NOW
AGREE THAT TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST
WITH NOTABLY THE NAM NOW ON BOARD...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER AT THE MID
LEVELS THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. SO WHILE THE PATTERN WITH ANDREA
IS SIMILAR... THE NAM IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND WILL AGAIN BE
DISCOUNTED. TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROLONGING LOW HEIGHTS OVER
THE REGION. A FEW MINOR WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THIS
TRANSITION AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED A
MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE NAM...FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE NIGHT. CAN/T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
FOR FRIDAY...THE INBOUND TROUGH AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST AS ANDREA MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE. DRIER
AIR AND AN END TO THE POP THREAT WILL WORK INTO THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON TAP FOR LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS KEPT THE FOG TO A MINIMUM LAST
NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME FOR TONIGHT...BUT FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...AS
THE CLOUDS WILL BE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT LATE.
STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT FOR WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FIRST
24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL USED BEYOND THAT AND ALSO FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES. AGAIN...DID NOT MAKE MANY TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A MOS BLEND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
KENTUCKY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS A 500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHEAR
OUT AND FLATTEN /LOSE STRENGTH/. BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE REGION...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUING TO WASH OUT AND DRYING/IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN KY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PULL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
GULF AND UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPECT TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...SO
DO EXPECT SOME CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME MID LEVEL CU TO CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AND JET FORCING CONTINUES NE UP THE COASTLINE. IN
MIDST OF COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR AROUND
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME...500MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN
AND QUICKLY DROP SEWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL
SET UP ACROSS KY BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH
SRLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE PULLING WARM MOIST AIR OUT OF THE GULF
AND WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE OTHER HAND
SHOWS WINDS IN A MORE W TO NWRLY FASHION...INDICATING A GOOD SHEERED
ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO THE UPPER LEVELS. WITH A BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT WITH WARM MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED IN...WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY NIGHT...INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO TREK TO THE NE AND BEST MOISTURE/COLD FRONT GETS PULLED
FURTHER EASTWARD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS GO INTO QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAST THIS PROGRESSION NEWRD TAKES PLACE AND
HOW LONG RESULTING MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN ERN KY...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH CONSENSUS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL HAVE
TAKEN HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS...MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE. AS DRIER AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION...ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES WILL CEASE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS BREAK IN THE
MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES
NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS IN SUCH
DISAGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WILL LEAN ON
MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...DESPITE A MID LEVEL CIG OVERHEAD. FOG HAS BEEN
GENERALLY PATCHY IN NATURE BUT TRENDS APPEAR TO BE TOWARDS AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WHILE LAMP AND OTHER GUIDANCE HAVE BECOME LESS
PESSIMISTIC...GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING
AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT A FEW LOCATIONS...KLOZ IN PARTICULAR. OPTED TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS A WORST CASE AT KJKL AND KSME. HOWEVER
KLOZ SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN VSBYS AT TAF ISSUANCE...SO
CONTINUED TO CARRY A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THERE FOR WHAT APPEARS
TO BE SOME LOCALIZED BUILD DOWN STRATUS AND FOG. THE BULK OF ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE KY...VA...WV
STATE LINES. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ELSEWHERE BUT THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH THAT ANY MENTION WAS LEFT OUT OF
THE TAFS UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH
A NORTHERLY TENDENCY...ESPECIALLY WHEN WINDS INCREASE ABOVE 4 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
140 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2013
Updated the forecast to add patchy fog. Some ASOS/AWOS sites have
already dropped into the 2-5 mile range in light fog this morning so
think that we`ll continue to see patches of fog develop in an
environment rich with low level moisture. Latest RR and LAMP
guidance agrees with this assessment along with 0Z model soundings.
Still, upper level clouds and a low stratus deck expected to develop
this morning will limit fog from becoming too widespread or dense.
Issued at 945 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2013
Weak and fairly diffuse frontal boundary dropping southward through
Kentucky as the surface low pulls east into the Appalachians.
Convection is pretty much dissipating, but in the last half hour we
have observed a brief isolated shower just within sight of the WFO,
and radar returns show a couple of isolated showers back near
Evansville. Given the lack of lightning, will remove thunder but
continue to carry a 20ish POP into the evening, which taken
literally seems generous, but is just enough to get the mention in
our products.
Still some concern about fog overnight, but with winds staying up
around 5 mph and quite a bit of lingering cloud cover, would think
we would have a hard time generating any widespread or dense fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2013
Showers have begun to increase in coverage again this afternoon,
especially across central Kentucky. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue across this area as a low pressure system over northern
KY/southern OH shifts east through the afternoon and evening hours
and drags a weak front through the area. Across southern Indiana and
along the Ohio River the precipitation chances will be more
isolated. These storms should rapidly diminish this evening with dry
conditions then expected for the remainder of the night. Some
guidance does suggest some fog formation towards morning across
eastern portions of the forecast area. However, confidence in this
is not high given that it does look like a low cloud deck will
redevelop. Therefore, will not include it in the forecast for now.
Lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 60s.
As an upper level trough crosses the region tomorrow scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to redevelop.
However, coverage looks to be less than today. Precipitation will
again diminish tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow will be in
the upper 70s to around 80 with lows tomorrow night in the lower 60s
once again.
.LONG TERM (Saturday - Thursday)...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2013
Saturday and Saturday night we`ll be on the backside of an upper
ridge with weak ridging at the surface. Models print out QPF on
Saturday but with the ridging plus a healthy cap and relatively low
atmospheric moisture, will stick with a dry forecast even though a
stray afternoon pop-up shower or storm isn`t entirely out of the
question.
Sunday and Sunday night a sharp upper trof will dig from the middle
Missouri Valley to the Ohio Valley, slowly moving off to the east by
late Monday night. At the surface low pressure will spin up
Saturday night over Iowa as the upper trof digs in, and should then
advance to Illinois by Monday morning and Lake Ontario by Tuesday
morning. Capping will weaken and moisture increase enough by Sunday
afternoon that we will stand a better chance of convection than on
Saturday, so will have scattered showers/storms in the forecast.
Those scattered showers/storms will then remain in the forecast
through Tuesday as the aforementioned system slowly plods across the
region. Sunday night into Monday look like the most likely time for
rain.
Upper ridging then tries to build in, but stays anchored over the
desert Southwest...putting us beneath northwest flow Tuesday through
Thursday. After some brief, weak ridging at the surface for a dry
night Tuesday night, we`ll have to bring shower and thunderstorm
chances back into the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday as we not
only will be impacted by systems rippling through the flow, but also
because of a surface system advancing from the Plains into the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Right now widespread severe weather looks unlikely, though we`ll
have to keep an eye on Wednesday/Thursday in association with that
Plains storm system coming in.
Temperatures will be fairly typical for this time of year. Highs
will be around 80 through Tuesday, then warming up into the middle
80s Wednesday/Thursday. Lows will be in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2013
Main TAF concerns will be low vsbys/cigs this morning. Good low
level moisture remains in place from rains yesterday especially at
BWG/LEX. According to model guidance, all TAF sites should see some
flight restrictions between roughly 7-16Z this morning. BWG/LEX
look most favorable to drop into the IFR cat with perhaps LEX being
slightly more prone to IFR restrictions due to rains
later in the day yesterday than BWG. SDF looks least likely to be
impacted by IFR conditions and will keep their TAF in the lower end
of MVFR. By 15-17Z, conditions should improve to VFR with some
scattered afternoon/evening rain showers possible and an isld rumble
of thunder not out of the question. Winds will remain out of the
NNE through the TAF period under 7kts.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........AMS/RAS
Short Term.......EER
Long Term........13
Aviation.........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1220 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG IN MVFR VSBYS BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE A SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FROM 17-22Z FRI. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE S/SE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AT INL HIB
BRD AND DLH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT 3-4 SM FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AROUND 03Z. WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG AT HYR LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A WEAK WAVE WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW AGAINST AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. WEAK
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS STILL OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ONE
MOVES OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO THE CWA BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
SOUTH AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER OUR
EASTERN WISCONSIN ZONES. WE EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO END
LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AND HAVE
A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THE RAP SHOWS MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS A BIT HIGHER WILL REMAIN THOUGH. IF
SKIES CAN CLEAR...WHICH THEY WILL IN SPOTS IF ONLY
BRIEFLY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING...AND WE
DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE MID THIRTIES TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION SOME
PATCHY FROST THERE. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
CLOUD TRENDS AND ADJUST TEMPS DOWN IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS.
WE DO EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
FROM TWO HARBORS DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS. THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING FURTHER...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE UPPER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE HIGH RES
RUNS...SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WE WILL KEEP POPS AROUND
30 PERCENT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER FOR MANY
AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THE GRADIENT DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AS
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER DEPARTING UPPER TROF/COLD POOL
SATURDAY AFTN. INCLUDED SLGT CHC THUNDER SWRN EDGE OF CWA BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT REGARD. FCST THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEKEND REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ALTHOUGH MDL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING SYSTEM WILL MOVE
FARTHER SOUTH OF CWA WITH LESS CHANCE OF PRECIP. WILL STILL CARRY
CHANCE RAIN SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY GEM IS PUSHING PRECIP
FARTHER NORTH. GFS/ECMWF TRENDING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. UPPER RIDGING
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK SO A QUIET PATTERN TRIES TO EMERGE.
ALLBLEND BRINGS POPS BACK INTO CWA TUES NIGHT HOWEVER DETERMINISTIC
CONSENSUS IS THAT MSTR TRANSPORT DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. MID
LVL SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS WED/EARLY THURSDAY SO POPS APPEAR
TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 44 63 49 / 20 20 20 30
INL 68 45 71 49 / 20 10 20 20
BRD 67 47 70 53 / 20 10 30 50
HYR 68 44 71 52 / 30 20 20 40
ASX 61 42 67 48 / 20 10 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SMALL
IN SIZE AND RADAR HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF ANY SPRINKLES WITH THEM.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW MIGHT FALL SHORT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
THE HRRR AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
HINT OF THEM AT THIS TIME...BUT A FEW OF THE CUMULUS ELEMENTS SEEM
TO BE GAINING SOME SIZE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE FRAMES.
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA AND THE CUMULUS ARE FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE. WILL
REMOVE THE SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE MOST OF THE CUMULUS FIELD IS FROM DAY TIME HEATING THE
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SOME MOISTURE THAT LINGERS IN THE MID LEVELS DURING THE
NIGHT AND WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL WILL
IT GET WITH CLOUDS AROUND. WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS
LAST NIGHT IF THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
SKY COVER TOMORROW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. WITH
THAT IN MIND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HIGHS TODAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BRING IN ENOUGH
WARM ADVECTION TO WARM THINGS VERY MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ALOFT: AFTER THE LAST 15 DAYS OF SUPPRESSED WESTERLIES AND THE
MEAN TROF IN THE WRN USA...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THE NEXT 7
DAYS THAT WILL ESTABLISHED A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND TROFS ON BOTH
COASTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH N OF HAWAII...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE E PAC SAT AND PARK OVER TX BY TUE.
IN THE MEANTIME...A POTENT SHRTWV TROF AND 120 KT ULJ ATOP THE HIGH
WILL PRECEDE IT SAT AND ARRIVE HERE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE HIGH
OVER TX AND LOWERING HGTS OVER THE E PAC WILL SEND THE CUT-OFF LOW
/CURRENTLY OFF SRN CA/ NE...ROUNDING THE RIDGE TUE. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN REBUILD OVER THE REGION WED-THU.
SFC: AS LOW PRES TRACKS THRU MT-ND...A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NGT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COOL FRONT SAT.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM NW-SE ACROSS NEB AND KS SUN-TUE AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON ITS COOL SIDE. AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CREST THE RIDGE...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE E
ALONG THE FRONT TUE NGT INTO W. IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT WILL DROP A
LITTLE FARTHER S BUT ITS WRN EDGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TIED TO A
LEE LOW OVER NE CO.
HAZARDS: TSTMS ARE LIKELY SAT. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS ON SVR. THEN
WE NEED TO WATCH FOR MCS ACTIVITY MON-WED...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NGT: FCST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TERMINATES. THIS HAS
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MESOSCALE FORCING AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. MODEL QPFS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE 00Z AND
12Z UKMET INDICATING AN MCS...THE GFS/NAM/GEM LARGELY DRY AND THE
LAST 3 EC CYCLES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
NAM MUCAPE 600 J/KG. 1-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
THREAT FOR SVR.
SAT: IF AN MCS DOES AFFECT PART OF THE FCST AREA FRI NGT...THIS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON WHAT OCCURS SAT AFTN/EVNG. FOR NOW
HAVE TREATED THE TWO PERIODS SEPARATELY...AS IF THEY WILL NOT
AFFECT EACH OTHER. THE COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH A NARROW WARM SECTOR.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE GONE 4-6F WARMER THAN THE 4 AM GID FCST FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CINH WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. ANY LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/RAIN IN THE MRNG AND FCST TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM IN THOSE
AREAS.
SEVERE: STRENGTHENING MID-UPR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL INCREASE
0-5 KM SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES ...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ONE OF THE MORE CONCERNING
ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THAT THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC WIND
WILL BE NORMAL TO THE COOL FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS AND
LESS CLUSTERING. 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 150 M2/S2 SUGGESTS
TORNADO POTENTIAL...HIGHEST NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. IT DOES APPEAR
THE TRIPLE PT COULD BE JUST NE OF THE FCST AREA /MAYBE NEAR OFK?/.
NAM MLCAPE HAS INCREASED 24 HRS AGO AND NOW OFFERS 1000-2000 J/KG
BEFORE ITS CONVECTIVE SCHEME KICKS IN. CLUSTERING OF MODELED HEAVIER
QPF IS BEST ALONG AND E OF HWY 281 WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FRONTAL
TIMING.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
/NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING/ COULD COMPENSATE FOR
LESS THAN IDEAL THERMODYNAMICS /IE SFC DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
60S/.
SAT NGT: CLEARING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST IF THE STRONGER EC IS RIGHT.
SUN: THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND! EXCELLENT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LGT WINDS. THE 00Z/12Z EC DOES SUGGEST A SHWR
OR TWO FROM FULLERTON-OSCEOLA NEB.
MON-WED: WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX.
IN THE WARM SECTOR...SUNNY AND HOT. ON THE COOL
SIDE...P/CLOUDY...MAYBE M/CLOUDY AT TIMES?...WITH THE THREAT OF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MRNG MCS ACTIVITY. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH WE HAVE
NOTED THAT THE GEM/GFS/EC HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THEIR TSTM
CLUSTERS.
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE FOR FCST HEADACHES ON TEMPS AND PCPN
POTENTIAL. THE WAA/CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE MCS ACTIVITY OCCURS. THIS IN AND OF ITSELF
WILL REINFORCE/MODULATE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. THE
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN MCS ACTIVITY AND THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAP WILL
BE VERY SHARP. THESE ARE DETAILS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE.
USE THE FCST WITH CAUTION NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE/VE INDICATED TIME
PERIODS OF LOW POPS AND OTHER PERIODS DRY...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE IF
WE GET AN MCS ROLLING THRU HERE. AGAIN...AM NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
SUCH LOW POPS/DRY FCST. IT/S JUST TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF/WHEN/WHERE
TSTMS WILL OCCUR.
HVY RAIN: THIS SETUP WARRANTS CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
BACK-BUILDING CELL CONFIGURATIONS IF MCS ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES.
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW...THU IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW.
HEAT: PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS COULD SEE A 4-DAY HEATWAVE /90F OR
MORE/ BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUN. 100F IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR 1 OR 2 DAYS AT BEAVER CITY-PHILLIPSBURG- PLAINVILLE KS. WE
COULD SEE THIS HEAT EXPAND INTO S-CNTRL NEB TUE IF THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK N.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL...WITH A
SCATTERED DECK CLOSER TO 4000FT AGL POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT KGRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE THROUGH GAPS IN CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO RIO
GRANDE VALLEY RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG EAST TO SE SFC WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS IN MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...BUT THESE SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SHRA
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST AND SE OF A LINE FROM CAPULIN TO CORONA...
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TSRA CLUSTER OR TWO EAST OF A FT SUMNER TO
ROSWELL LINE TIL 09 OR 10Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR AND VERY LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS WITH FEW AREAS OF FOG THROWN IN TO EAST OF CENTRAL MT
CHAIN THROUGH 15 OR 16Z FRI. SOME MT OBSCURATIONS ALSO ALONG
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THROUGH MOST OF FRI MORN. SPOTTY SHRA AND TSRA
ALMOST A CERTAINTY FRI AFTN...ESPECIALLY TO EAST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. VERY STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS. MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WESTWARD TO THE DIVIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS MAIN
ISSUE THERE.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2013...
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS STILL OVERCOMING INHIBITION FROM THIS MORNING`S
THICK AND PROLONGED LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK...STILL ERODING AWAY
IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NM. THE WEST
INITIATED A TOWERING CU FIELD FIRST...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
QUITE MODEST IN THE LOWER 20S BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE SHOWN TO BE JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE WHERE
STORMS WILL FAVOR BEFORE 5 PM. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE HAS THUS FAR ONLY PRODUCED VERY SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF
WETTING RAIN WITH VISUAL INDICATORS OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT BEFORE
CLOUD GLACIATION OCCURS. IT WILL BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT ANY STORMS THAT ROLL OFF OF THESE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE. THE 18Z HRRR INDICATES STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE RATON RIDGE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM ALSO SUPPORTS THIS.
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION...AND MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WESTWARD SURGE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BETWEEN THE RIO GRANDE AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MODEST
SEEPAGE OF EAST WINDS WILL ALSO SPILL THROUGH FAVORED GAPS/CANYONS
WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AIDING.
ON FRIDAY...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOCUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEAN 0-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FROM NW TO SE AGAIN...BUT SUFFICIENT VEERING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT COULD CREATE A FEW DEVIANT MOVERS WITH STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOWS. IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...DREW
BEST SEVERE MENTION JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH
THE DRIER NATURE OF STORMS TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE KEEPING
CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT ALIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SEE SUBTLE
RISES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY...PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN
FROM THE BAJA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS WILL STEER DEEPER
MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE AND HIGHER-
BASED OR DRIER STORMS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE 592 DAM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER NM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE WHILE ONLY
DRY AND RATHER ANEMIC STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. POPS
REMAIN LOW OR NON-EXISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
SWELLS OVER THE STATE. BY LATE NEXT WEEK THE EUROPEAN SHIFTS THE
UPPER HIGH EAST WHILE A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...A BIT TOO PREMATURE FOR THE MONSOON.
52
.FIRE WEATHER...
...HOT...DRY AND UNSTABLE PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AIR MASS TO BECOME MOST UNSTABLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF I-40 TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXPECT ISOLATED STRONG IF
NOT BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE AIR MASS
HAS RECOVERED FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY STORMS SLOWLY TOWARD THE E-SE. GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES AGAIN TONIGHT EAST AND MUCH OF THE
NORTH...WITH IMPROVED RECOVERIES FROM THE DIVIDE WESTWARD BUT STILL
GENERALLY FAIR AT BEST. THINK A BRIEF RETURN OF GUSTY EASTERLY GAP
WINDS A GOOD BET ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY
BENEATH A WEAK NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURE/AIR MASS
RECOVERY WILL BE FAR BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE CROP OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EXPECT A GREATER NUMBER OF STRONG IF NOT
BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING AREAS
NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES FRIDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD MOST NOTABLY THE CENTRAL VALLEY CORRIDOR TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SO MOST CONCERNED WITH INVERTED-V
STORM ENVIRONMENT-- GUSTY WINDS/LIGHTNING WITH NOT MUCH RAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM
BUBBLE OF AIR EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE
BUILDS OUR DIRECTION FROM ARIZONA. MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING LESS
AND LESS FAVORABLE IN TIME BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION ARGUES FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED LATE DAY/EVENING STORMS FROM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
QUARTER. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE REINFORCED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A WILDCARD IN TERMS OF POP
PLACEMENT FOR LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES TO THE NE/EC PLAINS. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HOT...PREDOMINATELY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF DRY THUNDER
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS SUN PM. PRETTY TYPICAL
OF EARLY JUNE...WITH VERY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WE WILL BE
BATTLING A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
BUT MODELS ALWAYS SEEM TO UNDERPLAY THE DEPTH OF MIXING THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND THUS OVERPREDICTS STRENGTH OF ANY CAPPING LAYER THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE AT LIMITING CONVECTION.
BEYOND SUNDAY...GROWING CONCERNS FOR LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE FORCING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN/TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN. HAVE
TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TUE PM BUT WITH HAINES INDICES
OF 6 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COULD BE CRITICAL PERIOD DESPITE
SPEEDS WELL BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
347 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW SEEN
ON SATELLITE NEAR PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE MB...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO NW MN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
A FEW SHOWERS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM PORTAGE TO
LANGDON THEN ISOLD THRU DVL TO HARVEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN HRRR 3 KM HAS ACTIVITY
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MUCAPES PER
00Z GFS IS A FEW HUNDRED AND SFC LIFTED INDICES JUST BELOW ZERO IN
AREA FROM NW MN BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST ND. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POP FOR MORNING -SHRA AND AFTN THUNDER IN THIS REGION.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SO FOR NOW WILL NOT HAVE ANY
POPS POST 00Z...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAY HAVE TO HAVE SOME
LOW POPS EXTENDED IN SOME SPOTS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS A PRETTY STRONG ONE ENTERING CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS IN
A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVING MAIN TROUGH OVER WRN SASK INTO
WRN ND TONIGHT THEN MAIN ENERGY DIVING INTO IOWA SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
THUS IT IS LOOKING LIKE SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM IN ERN MT/WRN ND LATER
TODAY-THIS EVE AND MOVE EAST BUT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE QUITE SLOW AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST MN MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT
AS DRY EASTERLY WIND KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE. THUS SLOWED DOWN
ADVANCE EASTWARD OF PRECIP AFTN BUT DID KEEP HIGH POPS IN DEVILS
LAKE-VALLEY CITY REGIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP HANG UP FROM DVL
REGION INTO SE ND INTO CNTRL MN WITH ONLY SLOW ADVANCE INTO DRY
AIR RIDGE OVER NW MN. THUS WENT DRIER ROUTE FOR NW MN...BUT KEPT
HIGH POPS DVL REGION INTO FAR WCNTRL MN SAT NIGHT AND UPPED POPS
SOME INTO WCNTRL MN ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW DECENT PRECIP IN THAT
REGION. SUN SHOWS BEST CHC OF PRECIP IN NW MN BUT IT WILL BE
LIGHT. TOTAL QPF FOR EVENT VIA WPC QPF FIELDS INDICATE 0.75 TO 1
INCH DVL REGION INTO SE ND WITH 0.33 OR LESS NRN VALLEY INTO NW MN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SEVERAL CHALLENGES EMERGE AS THE ADVERTISED
PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS MODELS...WPC GRAPHICS
AND 5 WAVE...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE CWFA. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THE WEATHER
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL I FEEL THE ECMWF IS BETTER THIS PERIOD.
ON MONDAY THE FIRST WAVE THAT TOPS THE RIDGE FALLS INTO THE EASTERN
LONGWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH CWFA. FOR TUESDAY THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP WEST LIMB OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE PLAINS. WHERE THE ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE
THE AREAS OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SWAP ROLES
WITH 00Z ECMWF NOW FARTHER NORTH WITH ENERGY THAN THE GFS. HIGHEST
QPF LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE TRACK.
EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW APPEAR LATE IN THE
PERIOD. BASED ON THE WPC WEB GRAPHICS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST
SUPPORTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS PUTS THE CWFA IN A FAIRLY MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY VERY STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGHER 500MB
HEIGHTS COMING INTO THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A TREND TOWARDS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA DURING THE MORNING...WITH ISOLD
SHOWERS AND AREAS VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN FA. SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH A VORT TAIL
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE BOTTINEAU/MINOT/ROLETTE
COUNTY AREA. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
CENTRAL FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS
EVENING...SPREADING INTO THE EAST CENTRAL LATER TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE NOTED FROM AROUND KENMARE...NORTHEAST TO JUST WEST OF
WESTHOPE IN BOTTINEAU COUNTY. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...THINK CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER THE 02 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR BRINGS THESE
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. CURRENTLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS TRACKING
FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA WITH THE SOUTH END OF
THE COLD FRONT INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENTLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...AS FAR
SOUTH AS NEAR ESTEVAN. THINK THERE IS YET A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A
SHOWER TO SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES
WANING AS SUNSET APPROACHES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE GOING FOR NOW AND MAY PULL IT WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE IF NOTHING ELSE DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO
BUMP UP CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR NORTH AND UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENTLY ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
LIMITED INSTABILITY SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT EITHER. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
TROUGH WILL WAVER AROUND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BE THE FOCAL POINT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FR TONIGHT
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE JAMES AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEYS. UP NORTH...CLOUDS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 12Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST
TO DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST REGARDING THE PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL H250 JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVE
MOVE OVER THE AREA. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS/NAM...MIXED LEVEL CAPE
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 200 TO 600 J/KG...ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO FIRE UP...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GET SEVERE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...BULK SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE
ADVERTISING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.30 INCHES...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE 6/6 00Z RUN...THE 12Z ECWMF/NAM/GFS ARE A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS DOWN. AS
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE FORECAST...HAVE DECIDED
TO USE THE WPC QPF GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
OF UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. FACTORING IN
THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND THE FORECAST QPF VALUES ALONG WITH
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (INCH OR LESS)...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
LATE THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD EAST
AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTH DAKOTA...EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT BEST CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGES THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WAS EVIDENT IN THE WEAK SURFACE WIND FIELD.
THE TROUGH APPARENTLY EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER THE SASK/MAN BORDER TO
BETWEEN MINOT AND STANLEY...AND BETWEEN PARSHALL AND WATFORD CITY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF IT. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AT KMOT AROUND 06Z AND
TO RUGBY/CARRINGTON THROUGH 12Z.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OR BECOME
LESS EVIDENT AFT 15Z AS THE WIND FIELD BECOMES SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KEPT VCTS AROUND KISN/KDIK AROUND 21Z/22Z BUT MORE CERTAIN
THAT AFT 03Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. EXPECT LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE/SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
CANCELLED ALL THE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH
ONGOING OVERLAND FLOODING CONTINUES...IT IS RECEDING SLOWLY AND
ROADS HAVE BEEN SIGNED AND BARRICADED.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOURIS
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM ALSO
APPEARS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. UNCERTAINTY IS GREAT WITH THIS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
THE FUTURE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...LTH
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TODAY REACHING THE NORFOLK AREA BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS NOW ENTERED SRN
SC...AND CONTINUES A NE TRACK AT INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
MEANWHILE...RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO CHANGE IN CONFIGURATION ACRS THE
CWFA AND THE REGION...BUT OVERALL HAVE NOT INTENSIFIED TO PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL RATES (AT LEAST IN THE CWFA). ONE PIVOT POINT OF
NEARLY STATIONARY MOD-HVY RAIN WAS SEEN IN E-CENTRAL GA. THE 06Z
HRRR HAD THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ZIP N INTO THE SRN UPR SAVANNAH
VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ANDERSON...WHERE
FFG IS LOWEST DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY/S HEAVY RAINS. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...WILL FRESHEN UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS STILL IN
EFFECT TILL 6 PM TODAY. POP GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THRU LATE
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR IN MIND.
AS OF 200 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS CENTERED INVOF
BRUNSWICK GA...TRACKING NEWD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE THAN PREVIOUS
NHC ADV. A RAIN BAND EXTENDING NE FROM E-CENTRAL GA ROUGHLY ALONG
I-85 ACRS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS
DEFORMATION INCREASES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY
PIVOTING FROM A NE-SW TO N-S ORIENTATION THRU DAYBREAK...WITH RATHER
MODEST RAIN RATES. STILL...WITH PWATS AROUND 2" AND GOOD RAIN
EFFICIENCY...COULD SEE SOME AREAS PICK UP A QUICK 1-2" ADDITIONAL
ACCUM IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL OPT TO LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS
FOR NOW. FORTUNATELY...CAPE IS QUITE WEAK AND THE BETTER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN ON THE RIGHT/EAST SIDE OF THE TRACK. SO SVR/TORNADO THREAT
SHUD REMAIN VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. POP/WX/TEMP
TRENDS ALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD THRU MIDDAY TODAY...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE.
LATER TODAY...LLVL FLOW WILL TURN N/NWLY ACRS THE CWFA...AS ANDREA
REACHES ERN NC. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS...AGREES WELL
ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROPICAL RAIN SHIELD AND
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TN VLY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN OUR WRN ZONES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SPREADING IT ACRS THE AREA LATE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING. I TWEAKED POP TRENDS TO LINE UP WITH THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
UPPER TROFFINESS PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS. AT 850 MB...WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WHAT WE WILL LACK IS ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY...DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THERE IS
NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE IT...A CHANCE POP IS WARRANTED. SO...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BASED ON HIGHER
CAPE IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MODELS ACTUALLY RESPOND A BIT
BETTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WERE KEPT IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON AN UPPER TROF
CROSSING THE OH VALLEY MON AND MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TUE. THE GFS IS DRIER IN MID WEEK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH MINOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME AND CROSSING THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A DRIER MID WEEK THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AS T.S. ANDREA TRACKS NE ALONG THE SC LOW
COUNTRY...PERIODS OF MOD-HVY RAIN WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED
TO LIFT N/NW INTO THE AREA THRU THE MORNING. AS OF 06Z...A RAIN BAND
SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP N AND W OF THE TERMINAL...WITH MORE BREAKS IN
THE RAIN AND LOWEST CIGS TO THE S AND E. STILL EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR
TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING...THEN
IMPROVING...AS THE CENTER OF ANDREA GETS TO ERN NC AROUND 18Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ROLLING IN
FROM THE W LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. WILL GO WITH PROB30 FOR TS FOR THAT
ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE ENE...MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AROUND DAYBREAK. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO NLY THEN NWLY INTO EARLY AFTN...THEN FINALLY SWITCH TO
SW...AS A LEE TROF SETS UP ON SW SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION MID-LATE
AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF MOD RAIN IS SPREADING NEWD INTO THE UPSTATE
TAF SITES AND TOWARD HKY. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE THRU DAYBREAK. THE BAND WILL DISSIPATE
AND PIVOT TO A N-S ORIENTATION THEN SHIFT EAST DURING THE MID-LATE
MORNING HOURS. A BREAK IN SHRA EXPECTED AND IMPROVING CIGS AS LLVL
FLOW BECOMES N/NWLY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS. WILL GO WITH PROB30 FOR TS AT
ALL SITES...HIGHLIGHTING PERIOD OF HIGHEST CHCS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THRU ABOUT DAYBREAK OUT OF THE NE...THEN
GRADUALLY BACKING TO N/NW MIDDAY...THEN SW IN THE AFTN (EXCEPT AT
KAVL). VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM EARLY AFTN THRU THE END OF TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA SHUD EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z
KCLT HIGH 90% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 72% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 88% HIGH 84% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 83% MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 64% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 66% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ035>037-056-
057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ003-006>014-
019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER
ATTM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS. PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPREADING
NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS. TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS ARE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NWRN SECTION OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...FURTHER EAST THE AIRMASS IS MORE HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS NE MS.
TODAY...TROF AXIS WILL PUSH EAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MOS GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONCUR. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN AND NORTH NS...ESPECIALLY
NE MS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROF
HEADS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY NOT REACHING 80
OVER THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FANTASTIC STRETCH OF
WEATHER. CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S...MAYBE EVEN A
FEW 50S. IF THE RAIN OCCURS AS PLANNED TODAY PATCHY FOG SEEMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MS LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PERFECT
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COMFORTABLE ALBEIT A TAD WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS
EAST AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. AN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S RESULTING
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TOO FAR OUT TO GET MORE
SPECIFIC THAN THAT ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS BREAKING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHRAS MAY DEVELOP THAT WILL EFFECT KTUP. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHRAS THAT OCCUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY 16Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NNW-N WINDS OF 6-10 KTS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z.
KRM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 63 83 67 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 79 60 82 62 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 80 59 81 64 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 79 61 84 63 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1144 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CONCERN...POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
NORTH WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
MVFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A WESTERLY MOVEMENT TO IT. HOWEVER...THE WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIVE
THESE CIGS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
KACT BUT COULD COME CLOSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
ALSO BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND 15-20 KT WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AROUND THE DFW
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN
09-13Z...BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. CHANCES FOR FOG CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AT KACT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 4SM FROM 09-13Z.
82/JLD
&&
.UPDATE...
A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL OF OUR NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING AND ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
CONTINUED TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY GOING CALM ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING.
THE QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF ANY PATCHY FOG CAN DEVELOP IN WAKE
OF THE STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED. NAM12 BUFFER AND RUC OPS40 SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 1-2 DEGREE TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR SUBSTANTIAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE NORTH WINDS AND THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE NORTH. WE WILL ABSTAIN FROM INSERTING PATCHY FOG INTO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE MONITORING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
AN MCV ROTATES TOWARDS EAST TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
EAST BY 6 PM. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT ALL PRECIP WILL EXIT NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT BEHIND
THE MCV AND DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE
CLEARING SKIES...DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT FOR EARLY JUNE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTH. AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FROM NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA.
MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER NORTH TEXAS WEATHER IS IN
STORE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
STATE. EXPECT VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 IN SOME WESTERN ZONES AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 85 64 91 71 / 5 5 5 5 10
WACO, TX 63 87 63 90 71 / 5 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 59 81 61 86 66 / 5 5 5 5 10
DENTON, TX 59 85 60 90 69 / 5 5 5 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 59 82 60 88 67 / 5 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 64 85 65 90 72 / 5 5 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 61 83 61 88 68 / 5 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 64 84 63 88 69 / 5 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 63 86 64 89 70 / 10 10 10 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 59 85 64 89 68 / 5 5 10 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE ALREADY
KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE WAVE OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO AND RUC QG MID LEVEL FIELDS SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF DECENT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY
OF ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
WILL MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST TO EMPHASIZE THIS.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MOST LOCALES.
.AVIATION...NOT PLANNING ON MANY CHANGES TO UPCOMING TAF. NOT SURE
IF TEMPO GROUP CURRENTLY IN TAF WILL BE TOO MUCH COVERAGE AS
SUBSIDENCE FIGHTING STABILITY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE UPPER
WAVE. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED SO WILL MAKE THE CALL CLOSER
TO 18Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER WY
AND WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTN. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING
SE ACROSS CNTRL WY AND WILL LIKELY BE NR THE CO-WY BORDER BY 12Z.
MEANWHILE THE LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN CO WILL BE SSE TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. CAPES BY AFTN WILL RANGE FM 500 J/KG ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE TO NR 1000 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS. THUS WITH
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SHOULD SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
THERE IS SOME SHEAR WITH THE MID LVL FLOW IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE.
THUS THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OVER THE PLAINS WITH
MARGINAL LARGE HAIL. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE WILL BE A CHC
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AS WELL. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN OVER NERN
CO MAY END UP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
BY TONIGHT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEASTERLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO COLORADO WITH
WEAKENING...MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS WEAK UPWARD Q-G VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED FOR THE CWA
SATURDAY...THEN DOWNWARD MOTION SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS BENIGN
ENERGY NOTED THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS HAVE A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AND SOME UPSLOPE TO MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. THE
UPSLOPE CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. EASTERLIES ARE PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE REST OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS PRETTY DRY. FOR THE MOST
PART...40S F DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED ON SATURDAY...DECREASING A TAD
FOR SUNDAY. THE CAPE VALUES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
ALL THE CWA ARE PRETTY MEAGER...NOTHING OVER 300 J/KG. SUNDAY`S
ARE EVEN LESS. THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS HAVE A CAP IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. SAME ON SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR NOW. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TINY
BIT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATRUDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO TODAY`S.
SUNDAY`S CLIMB SOME 3-5 C. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MODELS KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER US MONDAY...THEN THEY
SHOW A WEAK DYING UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY. MORE
RIDGING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ALL FOUR
DAYS...EVEN WITH TUESDAY`S TROUGH. NO POPS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION...SHOULD SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE 19Z-23Z TIME
PERIOD HOWEVER INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SLY AND THEN BECOME MORE
SELY BY 18Z. FOR THIS EVENING SHOWER THREAT SHOULD END BY 01Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING DRAINAGE.
HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
BURN AREAS THIS AFTN HOWEVER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY SO RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN MOST
PLACES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 436 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013/ ANDREA CONTINUES TO THE BE
INITIAL FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUING TO
BE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CENTER OF ANDREA IS ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING AND THE RAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD THOUGH...THE AREA OF RAIN HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST. BOTH LOCAL WRF AND HRRR ARE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA EXITING THE CWA BY MID
MORNING WITH THE LOCAL WRF ABOUT ONE TO TWO HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
HRRR. HAVE SEEN SOME LOW END GUSTS ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA
BUT NOTHING THAT MEETS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
AFTER THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA MOVES OUT...SHOULD HAVE A LULL
IN TERMS OF PRECIP FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR WITH A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADVERTISED LIKELY
/WEST/ TO CHANCE /EAST/ POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY NOT
CARRY HIGHER POPS LATE ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING. BY SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE CWA AND SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE. WITH THIS
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL AGAIN
HAVE A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY.
HYDRO....
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH 24
HOUR MPE VALUES SHOWING AROUND TWO INCHES WITH UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS. THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. COULD SEE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO
AN INCH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH RAINFALL FROM ANDREA. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE WESTERN PART OF IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE REST
OF THE WATCH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
11
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INTO THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME PUMP MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH WITH PWATS CLOSING IN
ON 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER WHERE I WILL CARRY HIGH END CHANCE
POPS. FOR MONDAY...MIDWEST TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST AS
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE. GFS IS NOT
NEARLY AS SHARP WITH THE TROUGH OR AS SOUTHERN TRENDING AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE MAINTAINS A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT PERHAPS LESS MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. AT THIS POINT...WITH AT LEAST SOME UPPER ENERGY PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH
END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
ONCE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
BUT LEAVES OUR AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...FAVORABLE FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION OR TIMING THIS
FAR OUT. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
FAVOR THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE UPPER ENERGY LOOKS MOST LIKELY
TO RESIDE. THE MOST POTENT OF THESE LOOKS TO BE ON THU AFTERNOON
AS GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY LINING UP WELL WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER MODEL RUN BUT THESE
POPS MAY TOO NEED TO BE PUSHED HIGHER AS EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHRA FROM ANDREA ARE SHIFTING EAST OF AHN AREA SO NO MORE IMPACTS
FROM THE STORM ARE REALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. WITH SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE CIGS THIS
MORNING BUT GIVEN SURROUNDING OBS...ATL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
REACHING A 400FT CIG. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 66 87 65 / 80 40 30 10
ATLANTA 81 66 84 68 / 60 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 78 62 80 61 / 60 30 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 80 63 84 64 / 60 30 20 10
COLUMBUS 85 68 87 69 / 60 20 30 20
GAINESVILLE 80 65 83 66 / 50 30 20 10
MACON 85 67 88 67 / 50 40 30 20
ROME 81 63 84 64 / 60 20 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 82 63 84 65 / 60 30 30 20
VIDALIA 86 71 89 70 / 50 40 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...LAURENS...OGLETHORPE...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...
TREUTLEN...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
15Z/10AM SURFACE CHART SHOWS WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN IOWA S/SE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT NEAR CHARLESTON CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS FROM PARIS SOUTHWARD TO ROBINSON. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE E/SE INTO
INDIANA. HRRR AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP REMAINING EAST OF I-57. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS...SO OTHER THAN INCREASING POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TODAY.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 555 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK INVERTED
TROF ALIGNED SE-NW ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN. THAT...COMBINED
WITH SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT SCT-BKN
LOW VFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CHALLENGE
WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...ESP NEAR DEC AND CMI WHERE SOME OF
THE SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER COVERAGE OF THE
RAINFALL. LATEST RADAR INDICATES A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DEC AND CMI AND THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN
WILL KEEP IT AWAY FROM THOSE SITES. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER
COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN TAFS...OTHER THAN
VCSH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THE SCT-BKN CU FIELD SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE THIS EVE AFTER SUNSET. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NNE TODAY AT 8 TO 13 KTS AND THEN AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
CLOUD COVER REMAINED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM THE NORTHWEST. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED
SOUTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEW
POINTS DOWN TO 50 DEGREE AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS DECATUR.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES OF INTEREST FOR THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
FOLLOWED BY ANY RAIN MID WEEK. THIS LATTER ISSUE HAS BEEN A
CHALLENGE THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND REMAINS SO THIS TIME AROUND.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG THE WABASH RIVER SHOULD MOVE
LITTLE TODAY...AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY...MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN CWA.
HAVE INTRODUCED 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...
WHILE MAINTAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WEAK CAPES TO AROUND
200 J/KG MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN EASTERN
ILLINOIS.
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET IN BETWEEN UPPER WAVES.
STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE DAKOTAS BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL FAVOR SOME SORT OF
CLOSING OFF OF A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM/GFS FAVORING MORE OF A
NORTHERN TRACK AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS A MORE SOUTHERN PATH.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
WESTERN IOWA AND BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. HAVE NOT MADE TOO MUCH CHANGE
TO TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR AREA...LIMITING
THEM WEST OF I-55. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST CWA... AHEAD
OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY WITH MODEST CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA IS INCLUDED IN THE SPC DAY3 SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS CHALLENGING FOR
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES. FAVORING MORE OF A ECMWF/CANADIAN BLEND
AT THE MOMENT WITH THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SO WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE LOW FURTHER EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS STILL PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN HAVING QUITE A TIME IN
PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH
THE GFS A BIT MORE CONSISTENT BUT HAVING ITS OWN ISSUES. THE
LATEST RUN OF BOTH MODELS ARE COMPARABLE WITH A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHIFTS THE ASSOCIATED AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH. THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF I-55 BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1135 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1135 AM FRIDAY...
UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR ANDREA`S
CENTER THROUGH NC. THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK TAKES THE CENTER
ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 1 AND I-95 THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL
BRING THE STRONGER WINDS ON THE RIGHT (EAST) SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER EXPECTED... EXTREME WINDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED HERE. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
20-25 MPH... AND PERIODIC GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH... PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR ARE THE HIGHEST WINDS WE`RE
EXPECTING. THIS COULD TOPPLE A COUPLE OF WEAK TREES AND/OR KNOCK
DOWN SOME BRANCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING REMAINS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS EVENT... AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK/BRIEF RAPID SPINUPS EAST OF I-95. -GIH
FROM 1015 AM THIS MORNING...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.
LATEST ESTIMATED POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TS ANDREA BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY IS JUST WEST OF FLORENCE SC. THERE ARE PLENTY OF HOLES IN
THE RAIN SHIELD OVER CENTRAL NC... BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL MORE
RAINBANDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING REMAINS EVERYWHERE... SO
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE
HEAVY RAINBAND LOCATED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER AS THIS BAND MAY TRAIN HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND WRN PIEDMONT. THE RAP AND HIGH-RES WRF RUNS TAKE THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 19-20Z... AND OUT OF FAR NORTH
CENTRAL NC BEFORE 00Z... LEAVING BEHIND PATCHY SHOWERS HEADING INTO
MID EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THIS
SCENARIO... WHICH IS REASONABLE AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVED
RADAR TRENDS.
AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR... THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS FOR OUR EXTREME EASTERN
EDGE OF COUNTIES EAST OF I-95 WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE NEAR
500 J/KG... STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS... AND 0-1 KM SRH OVER
250 M2/S2 COEXIST. THE RISK OF SHORT-LIVED RAPID SPINUPS WILL BE
GREATEST IN ANY AREAS WHERE A LITTLE SUN CAN BREAK OUT AND LEAD TO
LOCALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG BUOYANCY. TORNADO WATCH
CONTINUES IN THIS AREA UNTIL 1 PM.
HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO... MORESO OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CWA WHERE RAIN AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD DOWN THE DIURNAL RISE
TODAY. HIGHS FROM 74 FAR NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND FAR SOUTH. CERTAINLY THOUGH... TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP ON A LOCAL
BASIS IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY SUNSHINE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
TONIGHT...AFFECTS OF ANDREA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE BREEZY OUT OF THE W-NW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT AS A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXIMUM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO SOLID CHANCE IN THE WEST THOUGH DID TREND POPS DOWN A BIT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BULK SHEAR VALUES 30-35KTS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO BROKEN BANDS...SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THOUGH DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
REGIME WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG) CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. BULK
SHEAR VALUES 30-35 KTS INT EH AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BUT SHEAR DECREASES LATE IN THE DAY AS JET
LIFTS TO THE NE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN THE HWO. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING
SATURDAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON INSOLATION RECEIVED PRIOR TO
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
BRIEF WEAK S/W RIDING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH A CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS... THINK WE CLOUD
STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
THUS... WILL GO WITH A LOW END CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(GENERALLY DIURNAL)... WITH A LOW END SVR THREAT... GIVEN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KTS OR LESS. MORE OF A CONCERN WOULD BE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS... GIVEN
THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THE RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... EXPECT WE
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90... DESPITE
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1410 TO 1415 METER RANGE. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/W ENERGY/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL U.S. BY
SUNDAY... THEN EASTWARD AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER BY EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK... WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER... MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL S/W/LOW. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...
IT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS (WHICH HAS SHOWN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN).
HOWEVER... THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO TRACK THE MID LEVEL LOW
FURTHER SOUTH... BUT NOW IS MORE PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS. THIS
SHOULD YIELD DECREASING POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA... WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK... AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKING
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AREA DEPICTING ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... IN THE 80S... WITH LOW SIMILAR... IN THE
60S... TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM FRIDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB VFR THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA LIFTS NE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC THIS
MORNING...AND NC THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN.
AS ANDREA BEGINS TO LIFT NE OVER THE SC COASTAL PLAIN...WINDS IN THE
NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL BECOME SLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS WITH
GUSTS 25KTS WHILE WINDS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL BE NNW AT
10KTS. IN BETWEEN (ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR)...WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS. AFTER MID AFTERNOON
WITH ANDREA LIFTING NE OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN...SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN SLY EAST OF I-95 BUT BECOME WLY IN THE PIEDMONT. WINDS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD BECOME WLY BY SUNSET.
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE AND RAIN TAPERING
OFF FROM THE SW. EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO BE IN THE VFR RANGE AFTER 3-5
PM MOST LOCATIONS.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY AFFECT THE TRIAD TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT (BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-4 AM SATURDAY) AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY AFFECT CENTRAL NC SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CAUSE BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 4000-6000FT
RANGE. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG EACH DAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1020 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.
LATEST ESTIMATED POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TS ANDREA BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY IS JUST WEST OF FLORENCE SC. THERE ARE PLENTY OF HOLES IN
THE RAIN SHIELD OVER CENTRAL NC... BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL MORE
RAINBANDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING REMAINS EVERYWHERE... SO
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE
HEAVY RAINBAND LOCATED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER AS THIS BAND MAY TRAIN HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND WRN PIEDMONT. THE RAP AND HIGH-RES WRF RUNS TAKE THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 19-20Z... AND OUT OF FAR NORTH
CENTRAL NC BEFORE 00Z... LEAVING BEHIND PATCHY SHOWERS HEADING INTO
MID EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THIS
SCENARIO... WHICH IS REASONABLE AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVED
RADAR TRENDS.
AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR... THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS FOR OUR EXTREME EASTERN
EDGE OF COUNTIES EAST OF I-95 WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE NEAR
500 J/KG... STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS... AND 0-1 KM SRH OVER
250 M2/S2 COEXIST. THE RISK OF SHORT-LIVED RAPID SPINUPS WILL BE
GREATEST IN ANY AREAS WHERE A LITTLE SUN CAN BREAK OUT AND LEAD TO
LOCALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG BUOYANCY. TORNADO WATCH
CONTINUES IN THIS AREA UNTIL 1 PM.
HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO... MORESO OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CWA WHERE RAIN AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD DOWN THE DIURNAL RISE
TODAY. HIGHS FROM 74 FAR NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND FAR SOUTH. CERTAINLY THOUGH... TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP ON A LOCAL
BASIS IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY SUNSHINE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
TONIGHT...AFFECTS OF ANDREA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE BREEZY OUT OF THE W-NW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT AS A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXIMUM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO SOLID CHANCE IN THE WEST THOUGH DID TREND POPS DOWN A BIT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BULK SHEAR VALUES 30-35KTS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO BROKEN BANDS...SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THOUGH DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
REGIME WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG) CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. BULK
SHEAR VALUES 30-35 KTS INT EH AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BUT SHEAR DECREASES LATE IN THE DAY AS JET
LIFTS TO THE NE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN THE HWO. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING
SATURDAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON INSOLATION RECEIVED PRIOR TO
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
BRIEF WEAK S/W RIDING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH A CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS... THINK WE CLOUD
STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
THUS... WILL GO WITH A LOW END CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(GENERALLY DIURNAL)... WITH A LOW END SVR THREAT... GIVEN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KTS OR LESS. MORE OF A CONCERN WOULD BE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS... GIVEN
THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THE RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... EXPECT WE
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90... DESPITE
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1410 TO 1415 METER RANGE. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/W ENERGY/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL U.S. BY
SUNDAY... THEN EASTWARD AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER BY EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK... WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER... MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL S/W/LOW. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...
IT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS (WHICH HAS SHOWN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN).
HOWEVER... THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO TRACK THE MID LEVEL LOW
FURTHER SOUTH... BUT NOW IS MORE PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS. THIS
SHOULD YIELD DECREASING POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA... WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK... AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKING
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AREA DEPICTING ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... IN THE 80S... WITH LOW SIMILAR... IN THE
60S... TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM FRIDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB VFR THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA LIFTS NE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC THIS
MORNING...AND NC THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN.
AS ANDREA BEGINS TO LIFT NE OVER THE SC COASTAL PLAIN...WINDS IN THE
NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL BECOME SLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS WITH
GUSTS 25KTS WHILE WINDS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL BE NNW AT
10KTS. IN BETWEEN (ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR)...WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS. AFTER MID AFTERNOON
WITH ANDREA LIFTING NE OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN...SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN SLY EAST OF I-95 BUT BECOME WLY IN THE PIEDMONT. WINDS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD BECOME WLY BY SUNSET.
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE AND RAIN TAPERING
OFF FROM THE SW. EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO BE IN THE VFR RANGE AFTER 3-5
PM MOST LOCATIONS.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY AFFECT THE TRIAD TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT (BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-4 AM SATURDAY) AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY AFFECT CENTRAL NC SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CAUSE BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 4000-6000FT
RANGE. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING STRATUS/FOG EACH DAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS/WX TO FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND TO
EXTEND THE LOW CHANCES INTO THIS EVENING AS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE SOME ACTIVITY FROM 00Z THROUGH SUNSET. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
FOR MOST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S IN THE EAST TO LOW 70S IN THE WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
NARROW SHOWER BAND FROM WEST OF WINNIPG THROUGH WALHALLA TO LAKOTA
ND MOVING SLOWLY EAST. HRRR PROGS THIS BAND TO MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. AREA WITHIN LOW POP REGION SO LOOKS GOOD....THOUGH DID
CUT BACK POPS ON WRN EDGE AS SHOWER BAND MOVES EAST. HRRR STILL
SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES IN NRN VALLEY INTO NW
MN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW SEEN
ON SATELLITE NEAR PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE MB...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO NW MN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
A FEW SHOWERS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM PORTAGE TO
LANGDON THEN ISOLD THRU DVL TO HARVEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN HRRR 3 KM HAS ACTIVITY
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MUCAPES PER
00Z GFS IS A FEW HUNDRED AND SFC LIFTED INDICES JUST BELOW ZERO IN
AREA FROM NW MN BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST ND. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POP FOR MORNING -SHRA AND AFTN THUNDER IN THIS REGION.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SO FOR NOW WILL NOT HAVE ANY
POPS POST 00Z...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAY HAVE TO HAVE SOME
LOW POPS EXTENDED IN SOME SPOTS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS A PRETTY STRONG ONE ENTERING CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS IN
A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVING MAIN TROUGH OVER WRN SASK INTO
WRN ND TONIGHT THEN MAIN ENERGY DIVING INTO IOWA SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
THUS IT IS LOOKING LIKE SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM IN ERN MT/WRN ND LATER
TODAY-THIS EVE AND MOVE EAST BUT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE QUITE SLOW AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST MN MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT
AS DRY EASTERLY WIND KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE. THUS SLOWED DOWN
ADVANCE EASTWARD OF PRECIP AFTN BUT DID KEEP HIGH POPS IN DEVILS
LAKE-VALLEY CITY REGIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP HANG UP FROM DVL
REGION INTO SE ND INTO CNTRL MN WITH ONLY SLOW ADVANCE INTO DRY
AIR RIDGE OVER NW MN. THUS WENT DRIER ROUTE FOR NW MN...BUT KEPT
HIGH POPS DVL REGION INTO FAR WCNTRL MN SAT NIGHT AND UPPED POPS
SOME INTO WCNTRL MN ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW DECENT PRECIP IN THAT
REGION. SUN SHOWS BEST CHC OF PRECIP IN NW MN BUT IT WILL BE
LIGHT. TOTAL QPF FOR EVENT VIA WPC QPF FIELDS INDICATE 0.75 TO 1
INCH DVL REGION INTO SE ND WITH 0.33 OR LESS NRN VALLEY INTO NW MN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SEVERAL CHALLENGES EMERGE AS THE ADVERTISED
PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS MODELS...WPC GRAPHICS
AND 5 WAVE...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE CWFA. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THE WEATHER
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL I FEEL THE ECMWF IS BETTER THIS PERIOD.
ON MONDAY THE FIRST WAVE THAT TOPS THE RIDGE FALLS INTO THE EASTERN
LONGWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH CWFA. FOR TUESDAY THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP WEST LIMB OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE PLAINS. WHERE THE ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE
THE AREAS OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SWAP ROLES
WITH 00Z ECMWF NOW FARTHER NORTH WITH ENERGY THAN THE GFS. HIGHEST
QPF LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE TRACK.
EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW APPEAR LATE IN THE
PERIOD. BASED ON THE WPC WEB GRAPHICS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST
SUPPORTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS PUTS THE CWFA IN A FAIRLY MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY VERY STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGHER 500MB
HEIGHTS COMING INTO THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A TREND TOWARDS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
EXPECT VFR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WIND 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PD. EXPECT GOOD DEAL OF MID-HIGH CLDS
TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CU THIS AFTN. RISK OF AFTN TSTM BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY ONE TAF SITE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
NARROW SHOWER BAND FROM WEST OF WINNIPG THROUGH WALHALLA TO LAKOTA
ND MOVING SLOWLY EAST. HRRR PROGS THIS BAND TO MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. AREA WITHIN LOW POP REGION SO LOOKS GOOD....THOUGH DID
CUT BACK POPS ON WRN EDGE AS SHOWER BAND MOVES EAST. HRRR STILL
SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES IN NRN VALLEY INTO NW
MN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW SEEN
ON SATELLITE NEAR PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE MB...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO NW MN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
A FEW SHOWERS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM PORTAGE TO
LANGDON THEN ISOLD THRU DVL TO HARVEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN HRRR 3 KM HAS ACTIVITY
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MUCAPES PER
00Z GFS IS A FEW HUNDRED AND SFC LIFTED INDICES JUST BELOW ZERO IN
AREA FROM NW MN BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST ND. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POP FOR MORNING -SHRA AND AFTN THUNDER IN THIS REGION.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SO FOR NOW WILL NOT HAVE ANY
POPS POST 00Z...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAY HAVE TO HAVE SOME
LOW POPS EXTENDED IN SOME SPOTS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS A PRETTY STRONG ONE ENTERING CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS IN
A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVING MAIN TROUGH OVER WRN SASK INTO
WRN ND TONIGHT THEN MAIN ENERGY DIVING INTO IOWA SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
THUS IT IS LOOKING LIKE SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM IN ERN MT/WRN ND LATER
TODAY-THIS EVE AND MOVE EAST BUT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE QUITE SLOW AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST MN MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT
AS DRY EASTERLY WIND KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE. THUS SLOWED DOWN
ADVANCE EASTWARD OF PRECIP AFTN BUT DID KEEP HIGH POPS IN DEVILS
LAKE-VALLEY CITY REGIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP HANG UP FROM DVL
REGION INTO SE ND INTO CNTRL MN WITH ONLY SLOW ADVANCE INTO DRY
AIR RIDGE OVER NW MN. THUS WENT DRIER ROUTE FOR NW MN...BUT KEPT
HIGH POPS DVL REGION INTO FAR WCNTRL MN SAT NIGHT AND UPPED POPS
SOME INTO WCNTRL MN ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW DECENT PRECIP IN THAT
REGION. SUN SHOWS BEST CHC OF PRECIP IN NW MN BUT IT WILL BE
LIGHT. TOTAL QPF FOR EVENT VIA WPC QPF FIELDS INDICATE 0.75 TO 1
INCH DVL REGION INTO SE ND WITH 0.33 OR LESS NRN VALLEY INTO NW MN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SEVERAL CHALLENGES EMERGE AS THE ADVERTISED
PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS MODELS...WPC GRAPHICS
AND 5 WAVE...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE CWFA. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THE WEATHER
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL I FEEL THE ECMWF IS BETTER THIS PERIOD.
ON MONDAY THE FIRST WAVE THAT TOPS THE RIDGE FALLS INTO THE EASTERN
LONGWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH CWFA. FOR TUESDAY THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP WEST LIMB OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE PLAINS. WHERE THE ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE
THE AREAS OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SWAP ROLES
WITH 00Z ECMWF NOW FARTHER NORTH WITH ENERGY THAN THE GFS. HIGHEST
QPF LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE TRACK.
EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW APPEAR LATE IN THE
PERIOD. BASED ON THE WPC WEB GRAPHICS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST
SUPPORTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS PUTS THE CWFA IN A FAIRLY MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY VERY STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGHER 500MB
HEIGHTS COMING INTO THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A TREND TOWARDS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
EXPECT VFR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WIND 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PD. EXPECT GOOD DEAL OF MID-HIGH CLDS
TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CU THIS AFTN. RISK OF AFTN TSTM BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY ONE TAF SITE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1144 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO MY SERN ZONES. FLOOD GUIDANCE IS STILL RATHER
HIGH...BUT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL RAIN HARD OVER A FAIRLY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...AND SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ADAMS...YORK AND LANCASTER.
LATEST RUC SHOWS INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING
NORTH AND AFFECTING THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH OUR HIGHEST QPF AND FLOOD WATCH
SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...WITH MAXES PROBABLY ONLY IN THE U60S MTNS...TO L70S SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCT -SHRA BY
ARND MIDNIGHT...AS REMNANTS OF ANDREA PASS EAST OF PA. HAVE DROPPED
POPS MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...AS MDL DATA STRONGLY
SUGGESTS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
ANDREA.
LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
SUPPORT A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA DURING SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE PWATS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
FURTHER WEST...WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE SAT FCST FOR
NOW.
WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS THAT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS AFOREMENTIONED DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES. THE SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH ENS MEAN 8H
TEMPS ARND 12C...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS FROM ARND 70F OVR THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...TO NR 80F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW FORMING
IN THE UPPER MS VLY ON SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SEWD FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A HOT UPPER RIDGE MIGRATING EWD ACRS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND WEAKENING WRN ATLC
RIDGE SHOULD PAVE THE WAY FOR THIS ENERGY TO PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM
AND HELP TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALY
OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NERN CONUS...WITH NWLY FLOW PERSISTING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINA COAST.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING
THE H5 SYSTEM AND ASSOCD SFC LOW/FRONT EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY /MID-ATLC STATES ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
TUES. GFS/EC MODEL DIFFS INCREASE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT/POSITION OF A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/MCS ZONE. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE THEIR MOS-BASED DATA
FOR WX ELEMENTS WHICH BRINGS LOW CHC POPS BACK INTO THE SW ZONES
BY THURSDAY.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING TS ANDREA. THE HIGHEST POPS/PCPN SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON DAY 5/MON...THEN GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER /LESS
HUMID/ LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT THE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND POSSIBLY GUST 10-20 MPH LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE NJ COAST.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF
TO OUR EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY LOW CIGS/FOG...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
TUE...SCT SHRA. TSTM POSS SE. MVFR NW / VFR SE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN FROM ANDREA
MOVES UP OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES WE NEED OVER 3 INCHES
OF RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND SOME OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE REACHES
THOSE NUMBERS. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR IF THE HEAVY
RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO MY SERN ZONES. FLOOD GUIDANCE IS STILL RATHER
HIGH...BUT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL RAIN HARD OVER A FAIRLY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...AND SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ADAMS...YORK AND LANCASTER.
LATEST RUC SHOWS INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING
NORTH AND AFFECTING THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH OUR HIGHEST QPF AND FLOOD WATCH
SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...WITH MAXES PROBABLY ONLY IN THE U60S MTNS...TO L70S SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCT -SHRA BY
ARND MIDNIGHT...AS REMNANTS OF ANDREA PASS EAST OF PA. HAVE DROPPED
POPS MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...AS MDL DATA STRONGLY
SUGGESTS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
ANDREA.
LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
SUPPORT A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA DURING SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE PWATS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
FURTHER WEST...WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE SAT FCST FOR
NOW.
WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS THAT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS AFOREMENTIONED DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES. THE SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH ENS MEAN 8H
TEMPS ARND 12C...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS FROM ARND 70F OVR THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...TO NR 80F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW FORMING
IN THE UPPER MS VLY ON SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SEWD FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A HOT UPPER RIDGE MIGRATING EWD ACRS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND WEAKENING WRN ATLC
RIDGE SHOULD PAVE THE WAY FOR THIS ENERGY TO PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM
AND HELP TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALY
OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NERN CONUS...WITH NWLY FLOW PERSISTING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINA COAST.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING
THE H5 SYSTEM AND ASSOCD SFC LOW/FRONT EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY /MID-ATLC STATES ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
TUES. GFS/EC MODEL DIFFS INCREASE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT/POSITION OF A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/MCS ZONE. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE THEIR MOS-BASED DATA
FOR WX ELEMENTS WHICH BRINGS LOW CHC POPS BACK INTO THE SW ZONES
BY THURSDAY.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING TS ANDREA. THE HIGHEST POPS/PCPN SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON DAY 5/MON...THEN GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER /LESS
HUMID/ LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE SHIELD OF HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO
SERN ZONES /AND AREAS S AND E OF THERE/ BY MID MORNING. BULK OF
WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE ON EAST SIDE OF STORM...BUT OVER SUSQ
VALLEY NORTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP AT 850 MB
BRINGING A BIT OF WIND SHEAR AS SFC WINDS REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS.
SHARP SW-NE CUTOFF TO HEAVIER PRECIP WILL LEAVE NW 2/3RDS OF CWA
IN MORE SHOWERY LIGHTER PRECIP AREA. BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW
/MAINLY IFR/ AND VSBYS WILL BE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND AREAS
OF SHOWERS.
PRECIP EXITS TO THE NE FRI EVE...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR AREA-
WIDE FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS ON SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY LOW CIGS/FOG...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT-MON...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
TUE...SCT SHRA. TSTM POSS SE. MVFR NW / VFR SE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN FROM ANDREA
MOVES UP OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES WE NEED OVER 3 INCHES
OF RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND SOME OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE REACHES
THOSE NUMBERS. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR IF THE HEAVY
RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
HYDROLOGY...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TODAY REACHING THE NORFOLK AREA BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...DEFORMATION PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CWFA...FROM ABOUT NEWLAND TO GREENWOOD. PRECIP
RATES IN THIS AREA ARE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR AND
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE ZONE IS TILTING SLIGHTLY WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING EAST FROM GREENWOOD/LAURENS COUNTIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE DFMTN BAND GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER NEXT
FEW HRS. MEANWHILE HEAVIER PRECIP NEARER ANDREA/S CIRCULATION LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO OUR ERN NC PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CHARLOTTE AND ITS ERN
METRO AREA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO THE NC SANDHILLS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON CHARLOTTE AREA FOR HYDRO CONCERNS.
FINALLY...LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER UPPER EAST TN WILL BRING
ENHANCED POPS TO THE CENTRAL NC MTNS THRU THE MORNING...THOUGH
DOWNSLOPING IS EATING THESE UP AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS. REVISED
POPS THRU EARLY AFTN IN LIGHT OF TRENDS AND 11Z HRRR. NOTE THAT WE
STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE THIS AFTN AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO RETURN AFTER THE TROPICAL/STRATIFORM PRECIP
DIMINISHES.
AS OF 500 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS NOW ENTERED SRN
SC...AND CONTINUES A NE TRACK AT INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
MEANWHILE...RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO CHANGE IN CONFIGURATION ACRS THE
CWFA AND THE REGION...BUT OVERALL HAVE NOT INTENSIFIED TO PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL RATES (AT LEAST IN THE CWFA). ONE PIVOT POINT OF
NEARLY STATIONARY MOD-HVY RAIN WAS SEEN IN E-CENTRAL GA. THE 06Z
HRRR HAD THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ZIP N INTO THE SRN UPR SAVANNAH
VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ANDERSON...WHERE
FFG IS LOWEST DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY/S HEAVY RAINS. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...WILL FRESHEN UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS STILL IN
EFFECT TILL 6 PM TODAY. POP GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THRU LATE
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR IN MIND.
PREV DISCUSSION...
LATER TODAY...LLVL FLOW WILL TURN N/NWLY ACRS THE CWFA...AS ANDREA
REACHES ERN NC. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS...AGREES WELL
ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROPICAL RAIN SHIELD AND
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TN VLY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN OUR WRN ZONES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SPREADING IT ACRS THE AREA LATE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING. I TWEAKED POP TRENDS TO LINE UP WITH THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
UPPER TROFFINESS PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS. AT 850 MB...WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WHAT WE WILL LACK IS ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY...DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THERE IS
NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE IT...A CHANCE POP IS WARRANTED. SO...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BASED ON HIGHER
CAPE IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MODELS ACTUALLY RESPOND A BIT
BETTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WERE KEPT IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON AN UPPER TROF
CROSSING THE OH VALLEY MON AND MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TUE. THE GFS IS DRIER IN MID WEEK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH MINOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME AND CROSSING THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A DRIER MID WEEK THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...T.S. ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO
THE NC SANDHILLS. A BAND OF MODT TO HEAVY RA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
AFFECT THE FIELD THRU MIDDAY MINIMIZING IMPROVEMENT IN CIG. MVFR
VSBY WILL PREVAIL DURING THE RAIN. CONDITIONS SHUD IMPROVE EARLY
AFTN...AS ANDREA TRACKS NE OF THE AREA AND A DOWNSLOPE NWLY FLOW
HELPS LIFT CIGS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND
TSRA EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM ACRS THE REGION FROM MID AFTN THRU
THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH THAT PROB30 WAS
CHANGED TO A TEMPO. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BACK AS ANDREA MOVES PAST...EVENTUALLY
SWITCHING TO SW AS A LEE TROF SETS UP ON SW SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
BY MID AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING HAS ALREADY IMPROVED CIGS THIS MRNG. NOW
THAT RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE SPORADIC IN WAKE OF T.S. ANDREA AND
SOME DIURNAL WARMING IS OCCURRING...CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX
UPWARD. A BREAK IN SHRA EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY. THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN/EVE
HOURS. SOME CHC OF TS AT ALL SITES...WITH PROB30S/TEMPOS
HIGHLIGHTING PERIOD OF HIGHEST CHCS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
N/NW THRU MIDDAY...THEN SWITCH TO SW IN THE AFTN /EXCEPT AT KAVL/.
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA SHUD EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT MED 64% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 59%
KGSP HIGH 81% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% LOW 55%
KAVL MED 67% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% LOW 52%
KHKY MED 70% HIGH 100% HIGH 90% LOW 39%
KGMU HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 53%
KAND HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% LOW 58%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003-
006>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TODAY REACHING THE NORFOLK AREA BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...DEFORMATION PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CWFA...FROM ABOUT NEWLAND TO GREENWOOD. PRECIP
RATES IN THIS AREA ARE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR AND
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE ZONE IS TILTING SLIGHTLY WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING EAST FROM GREENWOOD/LAURENS COUNTIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE DFMTN BAND GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER NEXT
FEW HRS. MEANWHILE HEAVIER PRECIP NEARER ANDREA/S CIRCULATION LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO OUR ERN NC PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CHARLOTTE AND ITS ERN
METRO AREA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO THE NC SANDHILLS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON CHARLOTTE AREA FOR HYDRO CONCERNS.
FINALLY...LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER UPPER EAST TN WILL BRING
ENHANCED POPS TO THE CENTRAL NC MTNS THRU THE MORNING...THOUGH
DOWNSLOPING IS EATING THESE UP AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS. REVISED
POPS THRU EARLY AFTN IN LIGHT OF TRENDS AND 11Z HRRR. NOTE THAT WE
STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE THIS AFTN AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO RETURN AFTER THE TROPICAL/STRATIFORM PRECIP
DIMINISHES.
AS OF 500 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS NOW ENTERED SRN
SC...AND CONTINUES A NE TRACK AT INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
MEANWHILE...RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO CHANGE IN CONFIGURATION ACRS THE
CWFA AND THE REGION...BUT OVERALL HAVE NOT INTENSIFIED TO PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL RATES (AT LEAST IN THE CWFA). ONE PIVOT POINT OF
NEARLY STATIONARY MOD-HVY RAIN WAS SEEN IN E-CENTRAL GA. THE 06Z
HRRR HAD THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ZIP N INTO THE SRN UPR SAVANNAH
VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ANDERSON...WHERE
FFG IS LOWEST DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY/S HEAVY RAINS. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...WILL FRESHEN UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS STILL IN
EFFECT TILL 6 PM TODAY. POP GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THRU LATE
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR IN MIND.
PREV DISCUSSION...
LATER TODAY...LLVL FLOW WILL TURN N/NWLY ACRS THE CWFA...AS ANDREA
REACHES ERN NC. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS...AGREES WELL
ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROPICAL RAIN SHIELD AND
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TN VLY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN OUR WRN ZONES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SPREADING IT ACRS THE AREA LATE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING. I TWEAKED POP TRENDS TO LINE UP WITH THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
UPPER TROFFINESS PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS. AT 850 MB...WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WHAT WE WILL LACK IS ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY...DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THERE IS
NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE IT...A CHANCE POP IS WARRANTED. SO...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BASED ON HIGHER
CAPE IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MODELS ACTUALLY RESPOND A BIT
BETTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WERE KEPT IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON AN UPPER TROF
CROSSING THE OH VALLEY MON AND MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TUE. THE GFS IS DRIER IN MID WEEK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH MINOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME AND CROSSING THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A DRIER MID WEEK THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...T.S. ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ACRS THE SC LOW
COUNTRY. A BAND OF LGT-MOD RA HAS SET UP IN A N-S ORIENTATION W OF
THE TERMINAL...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE
AIRFIELD LATER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS...BUT VSBY SHUD STAY VFR FOR THE MOST PART.
CONDITIONS SHUD IMPROVE EARLY AFTN...AS ANDREA TRACKS NE OF THE AREA
AND A DOWNSLOPE NWLY FLOW HELPS LIFT CIGS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM ACRS
THE REGION FROM MID AFTN THRU THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
PROB30 FOR TS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO NLY THEN NWLY THIS
MORNING...THEN FINALLY SWITCH TO SW...AS A LEE TROF SETS UP ON SW
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ANDREA MID-LATE AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY N-S FROM JUST
WEST OF HKY THRU GSP TO GRD. UNDER THIS RAIN SHIELD...A NLY LLVL
FLOW IS HELPING SCOUR OUT IFR CIGS ACRS ALL THE UPSTATE SITES AND
AND HKY...THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOW WILL
ONLY GAIN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
THINK THE IMPROVED CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. VSBYS ARE ALSO NOT AS
BAD AS EXPECTED IN THE RAIN...AS RAIN RATES ARE LIGHT. THE BAND WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. A BREAK IN SHRA
EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS. WILL GO WITH
PROB30 FOR TS AT ALL SITES...HIGHLIGHTING PERIOD OF HIGHEST CHCS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO N/NW THRU MIDDAY...THEN SWITCH TO SW IN
THE AFTN (EXCEPT AT KAVL). GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA SHUD EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z
KCLT MED 73% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% MED 76%
KGSP MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 52%
KAVL MED 72% HIGH 92% HIGH 93% LOW 50%
KHKY MED 67% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% LOW 41%
KGMU MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 64%
KAND MED 76% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 56%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003-
006>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
TODAY REACHING THE NORFOLK AREA BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST...BUT TOUCHED UP T/TD
TRENDS THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS TIMING OF PRECIP LOOKS OK BUT IF
ANYTHING MAY BE A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN MOVING THINGS OUT TO THE EAST.
WILL AWAIT NEW HRRR GUIDANCE AND CONSIDER CHANGES OVER NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.
AS OF 500 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS NOW ENTERED SRN
SC...AND CONTINUES A NE TRACK AT INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
MEANWHILE...RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO CHANGE IN CONFIGURATION ACRS THE
CWFA AND THE REGION...BUT OVERALL HAVE NOT INTENSIFIED TO PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL RATES (AT LEAST IN THE CWFA). ONE PIVOT POINT OF
NEARLY STATIONARY MOD-HVY RAIN WAS SEEN IN E-CENTRAL GA. THE 06Z
HRRR HAD THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ZIP N INTO THE SRN UPR SAVANNAH
VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ANDERSON...WHERE
FFG IS LOWEST DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY/S HEAVY RAINS. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...WILL FRESHEN UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS STILL IN
EFFECT TILL 6 PM TODAY. POP GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THRU LATE
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR IN MIND.
AS OF 200 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS CENTERED INVOF
BRUNSWICK GA...TRACKING NEWD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE THAN PREVIOUS
NHC ADV. A RAIN BAND EXTENDING NE FROM E-CENTRAL GA ROUGHLY ALONG
I-85 ACRS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS
DEFORMATION INCREASES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY
PIVOTING FROM A NE-SW TO N-S ORIENTATION THRU DAYBREAK...WITH RATHER
MODEST RAIN RATES. STILL...WITH PWATS AROUND 2" AND GOOD RAIN
EFFICIENCY...COULD SEE SOME AREAS PICK UP A QUICK 1-2" ADDITIONAL
ACCUM IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL OPT TO LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS
FOR NOW. FORTUNATELY...CAPE IS QUITE WEAK AND THE BETTER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN ON THE RIGHT/EAST SIDE OF THE TRACK. SO SVR/TORNADO THREAT
SHUD REMAIN VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. POP/WX/TEMP
TRENDS ALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD THRU MIDDAY TODAY...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE.
LATER TODAY...LLVL FLOW WILL TURN N/NWLY ACRS THE CWFA...AS ANDREA
REACHES ERN NC. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS...AGREES WELL
ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROPICAL RAIN SHIELD AND
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TN VLY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN OUR WRN ZONES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SPREADING IT ACRS THE AREA LATE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING. I TWEAKED POP TRENDS TO LINE UP WITH THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
UPPER TROFFINESS PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS. AT 850 MB...WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WHAT WE WILL LACK IS ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY...DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THERE IS
NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE IT...A CHANCE POP IS WARRANTED. SO...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BASED ON HIGHER
CAPE IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MODELS ACTUALLY RESPOND A BIT
BETTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WERE KEPT IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON AN UPPER TROF
CROSSING THE OH VALLEY MON AND MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TUE. THE GFS IS DRIER IN MID WEEK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH MINOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME AND CROSSING THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A DRIER MID WEEK THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...T.S. ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ACRS THE SC LOW
COUNTRY. A BAND OF LGT-MOD RA HAS SET UP IN A N-S ORIENTATION W OF
THE TERMINAL...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE
AIRFIELD LATER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS...BUT VSBY SHUD STAY VFR FOR THE MOST PART.
CONDITIONS SHUD IMPROVE EARLY AFTN...AS ANDREA TRACKS NE OF THE AREA
AND A DOWNSLOPE NWLY FLOW HELPS LIFT CIGS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM ACRS
THE REGION FROM MID AFTN THRU THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
PROB30 FOR TS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO NLY THEN NWLY THIS
MORNING...THEN FINALLY SWITCH TO SW...AS A LEE TROF SETS UP ON SW
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ANDREA MID-LATE AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY N-S FROM JUST
WEST OF HKY THRU GSP TO GRD. UNDER THIS RAIN SHIELD...A NLY LLVL
FLOW IS HELPING SCOUR OUT IFR CIGS ACRS ALL THE UPSTATE SITES AND
AND HKY...THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOW WILL
ONLY GAIN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
THINK THE IMPROVED CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. VSBYS ARE ALSO NOT AS
BAD AS EXPECTED IN THE RAIN...AS RAIN RATES ARE LIGHT. THE BAND WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. A BREAK IN SHRA
EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS. WILL GO WITH
PROB30 FOR TS AT ALL SITES...HIGHLIGHTING PERIOD OF HIGHEST CHCS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO N/NW THRU MIDDAY...THEN SWITCH TO SW IN
THE AFTN (EXCEPT AT KAVL). GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA SHUD EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z
KCLT MED 71% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% MED 79%
KGSP MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 63%
KAVL MED 77% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% LOW 57%
KHKY MED 66% HIGH 90% HIGH 100% LOW 49%
KGMU MED 76% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70%
KAND MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 67%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003-
006>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1036 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACIANS AND BACK INTO ALABAMA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10
AM CDT ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER
ATTM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS. PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPREADING
NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS. TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS ARE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NWRN SECTION OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...FURTHER EAST THE AIRMASS IS MORE HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS NE MS.
TODAY...TROF AXIS WILL PUSH EAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MOS GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONCUR. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN AND NORTH NS...ESPECIALLY
NE MS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROF
HEADS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY NOT REACHING 80
OVER THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FANTASTIC STRETCH OF
WEATHER. CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S...MAYBE EVEN A
FEW 50S. IF THE RAIN OCCURS AS PLANNED TODAY PATCHY FOG SEEMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MS LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PERFECT
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COMFORTABLE ALBEIT A TAD WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS
EAST AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. AN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S RESULTING
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TOO FAR OUT TO GET MORE
SPECIFIC THAN THAT ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS BREAKING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SHOWERS MAINLY
AFFECTING TUP THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN AT MEM AND MKL.
NORTH WINDS AT 6-10 KTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 63 83 67 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 79 60 82 62 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 80 59 81 64 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 79 61 84 63 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
619 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER
ATTM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS. PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPREADING
NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS. TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS ARE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NWRN SECTION OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...FURTHER EAST THE AIRMASS IS MORE HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS NE MS.
TODAY...TROF AXIS WILL PUSH EAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MOS GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONCUR. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN AND NORTH NS...ESPECIALLY
NE MS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROF
HEADS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY NOT REACHING 80
OVER THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FANTASTIC STRETCH OF
WEATHER. CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S...MAYBE EVEN A
FEW 50S. IF THE RAIN OCCURS AS PLANNED TODAY PATCHY FOG SEEMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MS LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PERFECT
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COMFORTABLE ALBEIT A TAD WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS
EAST AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. AN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S RESULTING
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TOO FAR OUT TO GET MORE
SPECIFIC THAN THAT ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS BREAKING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SHOWERS MAINLY
AFFECTING TUP THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN AT MEM AND MKL.
NORTH WINDS AT 6-10 KTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 63 83 67 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 79 60 82 62 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 80 59 81 64 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 79 61 84 63 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
357 PM PDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WEST COAST. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS LATE ON SUNDAY. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BATTLE AREAS LOW CLOUDS, BUT THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE SOME
SUN AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE A SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA, RANGING FROM THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST. MODEL FORECAST 850 MB
TEMPS WILL WARM ANOTHER 1-2C, PEAKING NEAR 27-28C ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS DIRECTLY OVER NRN CA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MID 100S AT LEAST, WHICH WILL ABOVE DAILY RECORDS FOR
EARLY JUNE SEVERAL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN
A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MODELS HAVE BECOME
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER, WHICH WOULD TEND TO PUSH THE TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
EXPECT THE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY RESTRICTED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. WHILE PWS ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPROACH 1 INCH SUNDAY NIGHT, NEARLY ALL OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 500 MB, OR AT LEAST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS MEANS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER
HIGH-BASED WITH LITTLE ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL. GENERAL TROUGHING WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PERSIST NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY COOLER BUT MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
MEANWHILE AT THE COAST, MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT HAS INTENSIFIED TODAY, WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING, RESULTING
IN BETTER MIXING AND DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TONIGHT WILL
START OFF CLEAR, BUT EXPECT SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE EEL
RIVER VALLEY AND HUMBOLDT BAY, AND PERHAPS AROUND FORT BRAGG,
RESULTING IN CLOUDS THERE THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. DO NOT SEE
ANY INDICATIONS OF THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHING OFFSHORE, EXCEPT
PERHAPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR AND STRATUS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE GRADIENT AT LEAST WEAKLY ONSHORE, SO KEPT TEMPS AT THE
COAST FROM GETTING TOO WARM. EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE LOW TO
MID-60S WE SAW TODAY. THERE STILL SHOULD BE SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT MORNING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR WILL ARRIVE, RESULTING IN GREATER
COVERAGE AND INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. WITH THE GENERAL
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND A DECENT SFC GRADIENT, EXPECT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MIXING TO CLEAR MOST LOCATIONS OUT EACH AFTERNOON. AAD
&&
.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUT ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST.
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AT KCEC AS GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AND DAYTIME
HEATING HAS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WINDS THERE ARE PRESENTLY
GUSTING OVER 25 KTS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KCEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
STRONG AND NAM INDICATES FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
NAM...GFS..AND RUC FOG TOOLS ALL INDICATE POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT BUT LIMITED VSBY REDUCTION. HOWEVER...MOS INDICATE IFR
VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE GROUND AT
KCEC WITH MVFR VSBYS AND BKN LOW CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AT KACV AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE COAST N OF CAPE MENDO AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KUKI OVERNIGHT. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS FROM AROUND THE AREA HINT THAT
PRESENT WIND FORECAST IS ON TRACK TO PERHAPS A BIT HIGH.
STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROF INLAND AND BUILDING HIGH OVER THE E PAC
WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
FOLLOWING SUIT. OFFSHORE GALE WARNING AND NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAIN ON TRACK. ALTHO PROBABLY NOT A SLAM DUNK...SHOULD
BE ENUF AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF HAZARDOUS SEAS IN ZONE 450 TO
WARRANT UPGRADING HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO A WARNING. HAVE NOT
MODIFIED START OR END TIMES OF THESE PRODUCTS. IT APPEARS WE ARE
NEAR THE HEIGHT OF THE AMPLITUDE AND PERIOD OF SSW BACKGROUND
SWELLS. WILL UPDATE THE EXISTING MWS FOR HAZARDOUS BREAKING WAVES
ALONG S FACING HARBORS AND COVES AND EXTEND THRU TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED LATE TONIGHT OR DURING THE
DAY SHIFT SAT. /SEC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT WX WITH LOW RHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS
UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE DISTRICT. DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE 100S AND
AFTERNOON RHS IN THE TEENS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10 MPH AWAY FROM THE COAST, AND WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER NRN CA WILL BRING A SCHC OF
TSTMS SUN AND COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR TO NW CA. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SUN...SO CONFIDENCE
INCREASING REGARDING CONVECTION SUN. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND
RELATIVELY DRY, HOWEVER WE CONTINUE TO THINK COVERAGE WILL BE TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT A FIRE WX WATCH/WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING.
AAD/BC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ450-455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
15Z/10AM SURFACE CHART SHOWS WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN IOWA S/SE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT NEAR CHARLESTON CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS FROM PARIS SOUTHWARD TO ROBINSON. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE E/SE INTO
INDIANA. HRRR AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP REMAINING EAST OF I-57. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS...SO OTHER THAN INCREASING POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
CU-FIELD IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH
12Z NAM CU-RULE SUGGESTING BKN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT OBS...CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CATEGORY AROUND 4000FT. SOUNDINGS HOLD ON TO A MOIST
LAYER AROUND 4000FT THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO
SCATTER CLOUDS AFTER 03Z/04Z DUE TO DIURNAL NATURE OF CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE N/NE AT 10 TO 15KT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
CLOUD COVER REMAINED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM THE NORTHWEST. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED
SOUTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEW
POINTS DOWN TO 50 DEGREE AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS DECATUR.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES OF INTEREST FOR THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
FOLLOWED BY ANY RAIN MID WEEK. THIS LATTER ISSUE HAS BEEN A
CHALLENGE THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND REMAINS SO THIS TIME AROUND.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG THE WABASH RIVER SHOULD MOVE
LITTLE TODAY...AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY...MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN CWA.
HAVE INTRODUCED 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...
WHILE MAINTAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WEAK CAPES TO AROUND
200 J/KG MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN EASTERN
ILLINOIS.
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET IN BETWEEN UPPER WAVES.
STRONGER WAVE CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE DAKOTAS BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL FAVOR SOME SORT OF
CLOSING OFF OF A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM/GFS FAVORING MORE OF A
NORTHERN TRACK AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS A MORE SOUTHERN PATH.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
WESTERN IOWA AND BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. HAVE NOT MADE TOO MUCH CHANGE
TO TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR AREA...LIMITING
THEM WEST OF I-55. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST CWA... AHEAD
OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY WITH MODEST CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA IS INCLUDED IN THE SPC DAY3 SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS CHALLENGING FOR
DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES. FAVORING MORE OF A ECMWF/CANADIAN BLEND
AT THE MOMENT WITH THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SO WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE LOW FURTHER EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS STILL PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN HAVING QUITE A TIME IN
PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH
THE GFS A BIT MORE CONSISTENT BUT HAVING ITS OWN ISSUES. THE
LATEST RUN OF BOTH MODELS ARE COMPARABLE WITH A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHIFTS THE ASSOCIATED AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH. THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF I-55 BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TS ANDREA MOVING PAST THE REGION...WELL TO
THE EAST AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST. EARLIER...A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERED OVER KENTUCKY/S WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS... ALONG THE VIRGINA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER. THESE
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DOWN
NEAR 60...MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SKY ALSO STARTED TO BREAK UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA. THIS CLEARING LET TEMPERATURES SPIKE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. APPARENTLY...THIS IS STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO POP ANY CONVECTION DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST. THIS AREA
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IN THESE PARTS
BY EARLY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SUPPORT FOR ANDREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A MINOR WAVE DOES LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF ANDREA...PASSING
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH SOME MODERATE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT KEYED IN ON THE NAM12
AND HRRR FOR NEAR TERM SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS CLEARING FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND THE WAKE SUBSIDENCE OF ANDREA DEPARTS.
THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A
SMALL THREAT LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT...
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS...
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN BOTH
THE HWO AND THE ZFP. A WEAK SFC TROUGH TRAILING THE TROPICAL STORM
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHAT EVER DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN.
LOADED THE CONSSHORT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND CONSALL FOR TD/WINDS AND MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. DID
NOT ADD MUCH TERRAIN DIFFERENCE TO THE LOWS DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS STILL AROUND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRIER MAV THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
DURING THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT A 500MB TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHOWING CONFINED AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MAKING ITS
WAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
KY...WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STARTING
OFF THE MORNING DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEAR
DURING THE DAY...AND MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES OFF THE EASTERN COAST
IN RELATION TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BOTH FROM THE EAST AND FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...THEY ARE NOT SO SETTLED ON HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE DURING THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE JACKSON AREA BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP BY SUNDAY
EVENING ACCORDING THE THE NAM AND SLIGHTLY LATER FOR THE GFS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE LEADING UP TO
THIS...THOUGH WITH ANY HEATING OR LIFT...WOULD NOT BE UNLIKELY TO
SEE A SOME ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
MAIN LINE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...PICKING
UP IN COVERAGE AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN FROM THE GULF AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A WASH OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
RESULT. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS MARGINALLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS/CONSENSUS. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO PULL OUT TUESDAY AND STRONG RIDGING PATTERN ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO
MOVE IN...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GEM
DRYING OUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN THE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL POTENTIAL RAIN MAKERS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ON EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION ARE LACKING. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW
BEST POTENTIALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
CORRELATION WITH THE BEST HEATING/INSTABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
DIURNAL SFC HEATING CONTINUES TO LIFT AND BREAK UP CIGS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN JUST ALONG THE VA AND WV STATE LINES. BUT AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
IN EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT OUT
ANY MENTION OF RAIN FROM THE TAFS. THE CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE ADDED
THIS ALL TO THE TAF FORECASTS WITH SME AND LOZ EXPECTED TO GO DOWN
EARLIER AND A BIT HARDER THAN JKL. THE FOG WILL CLEAR EARLY SATURDAY
THEN JUST A CIG OF AROUND 4K FEET EXPECTED. GENERALLY NORTHERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND STAY THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1135 AM FRIDAY...
UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR ANDREA`S
CENTER THROUGH NC. THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK TAKES THE CENTER
ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 1 AND I-95 THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL
BRING THE STRONGER WINDS ON THE RIGHT (EAST) SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER EXPECTED... EXTREME WINDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED HERE. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
20-25 MPH... AND PERIODIC GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH... PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR ARE THE HIGHEST WINDS WE`RE
EXPECTING. THIS COULD TOPPLE A COUPLE OF WEAK TREES AND/OR KNOCK
DOWN SOME BRANCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING REMAINS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS EVENT... AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK/BRIEF RAPID SPINUPS EAST OF I-95. -GIH
FROM 1015 AM THIS MORNING...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.
LATEST ESTIMATED POSITION OF THE CENTER OF TS ANDREA BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY IS JUST WEST OF FLORENCE SC. THERE ARE PLENTY OF HOLES IN
THE RAIN SHIELD OVER CENTRAL NC... BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL MORE
RAINBANDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING REMAINS EVERYWHERE... SO
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE
HEAVY RAINBAND LOCATED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER AS THIS BAND MAY TRAIN HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND WRN PIEDMONT. THE RAP AND HIGH-RES WRF RUNS TAKE THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 19-20Z... AND OUT OF FAR NORTH
CENTRAL NC BEFORE 00Z... LEAVING BEHIND PATCHY SHOWERS HEADING INTO
MID EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THIS
SCENARIO... WHICH IS REASONABLE AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVED
RADAR TRENDS.
AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR... THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS FOR OUR EXTREME EASTERN
EDGE OF COUNTIES EAST OF I-95 WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE NEAR
500 J/KG... STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS... AND 0-1 KM SRH OVER
250 M2/S2 COEXIST. THE RISK OF SHORT-LIVED RAPID SPINUPS WILL BE
GREATEST IN ANY AREAS WHERE A LITTLE SUN CAN BREAK OUT AND LEAD TO
LOCALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG BUOYANCY. TORNADO WATCH
CONTINUES IN THIS AREA UNTIL 1 PM.
HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO... MORESO OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CWA WHERE RAIN AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD DOWN THE DIURNAL RISE
TODAY. HIGHS FROM 74 FAR NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND FAR SOUTH. CERTAINLY THOUGH... TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP ON A LOCAL
BASIS IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY SUNSHINE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
TONIGHT...AFFECTS OF ANDREA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE BREEZY OUT OF THE W-NW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT AS A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXIMUM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO SOLID CHANCE IN THE WEST THOUGH DID TREND POPS DOWN A BIT IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BULK SHEAR VALUES 30-35KTS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAY BE ORGANIZED INTO BROKEN BANDS...SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THOUGH DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
REGIME WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG) CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. BULK
SHEAR VALUES 30-35 KTS INT EH AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BUT SHEAR DECREASES LATE IN THE DAY AS JET
LIFTS TO THE NE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN THE HWO. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING
SATURDAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON INSOLATION RECEIVED PRIOR TO
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
BRIEF WEAK S/W RIDING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH A CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS... THINK WE CLOUD
STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
THUS... WILL GO WITH A LOW END CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(GENERALLY DIURNAL)... WITH A LOW END SVR THREAT... GIVEN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KTS OR LESS. MORE OF A CONCERN WOULD BE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS... GIVEN
THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THE RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... EXPECT WE
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90... DESPITE
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1410 TO 1415 METER RANGE. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/W ENERGY/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL U.S. BY
SUNDAY... THEN EASTWARD AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER BY EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK... WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR AREA BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER... MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL S/W/LOW. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...
IT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS (WHICH HAS SHOWN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN).
HOWEVER... THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO TRACK THE MID LEVEL LOW
FURTHER SOUTH... BUT NOW IS MORE PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS. THIS
SHOULD YIELD DECREASING POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA... WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK... AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKING
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AREA DEPICTING ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... IN THE 80S... WITH LOW SIMILAR... IN THE
60S... TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TS
ANDREA LIFTS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC AND EVENTUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH 20-21Z...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE...MVFR
CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND IF WINDS BECOME
LIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER ALABAMA...IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO COMPLEXITY OF OF THESE
SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LOW.
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...WITH VFR POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KGSO AND
KINT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC...AS A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY EVENING. WARM AND
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AND AFTERNOON SHOWS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND WILL ADD THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION WITH NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW SEEN
ON SATELLITE NEAR PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE MB...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO NW MN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
A FEW SHOWERS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM PORTAGE TO
LANGDON THEN ISOLD THRU DVL TO HARVEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN HRRR 3 KM HAS ACTIVITY
INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MUCAPES PER
00Z GFS IS A FEW HUNDRED AND SFC LIFTED INDICES JUST BELOW ZERO IN
AREA FROM NW MN BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST ND. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POP FOR MORNING -SHRA AND AFTN THUNDER IN THIS REGION.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SO FOR NOW WILL NOT HAVE ANY
POPS POST 00Z...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAY HAVE TO HAVE SOME
LOW POPS EXTENDED IN SOME SPOTS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS A PRETTY STRONG ONE ENTERING CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MODELS IN
A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVING MAIN TROUGH OVER WRN SASK INTO
WRN ND TONIGHT THEN MAIN ENERGY DIVING INTO IOWA SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
THUS IT IS LOOKING LIKE SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM IN ERN MT/WRN ND LATER
TODAY-THIS EVE AND MOVE EAST BUT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE QUITE SLOW AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST MN MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT
AS DRY EASTERLY WIND KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE. THUS SLOWED DOWN
ADVANCE EASTWARD OF PRECIP AFTN BUT DID KEEP HIGH POPS IN DEVILS
LAKE-VALLEY CITY REGIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP HANG UP FROM DVL
REGION INTO SE ND INTO CNTRL MN WITH ONLY SLOW ADVANCE INTO DRY
AIR RIDGE OVER NW MN. THUS WENT DRIER ROUTE FOR NW MN...BUT KEPT
HIGH POPS DVL REGION INTO FAR WCNTRL MN SAT NIGHT AND UPPED POPS
SOME INTO WCNTRL MN ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW DECENT PRECIP IN THAT
REGION. SUN SHOWS BEST CHC OF PRECIP IN NW MN BUT IT WILL BE
LIGHT. TOTAL QPF FOR EVENT VIA WPC QPF FIELDS INDICATE 0.75 TO 1
INCH DVL REGION INTO SE ND WITH 0.33 OR LESS NRN VALLEY INTO NW MN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SEVERAL CHALLENGES EMERGE AS THE ADVERTISED
PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS MODELS...WPC GRAPHICS
AND 5 WAVE...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE CWFA. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THE WEATHER
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL I FEEL THE ECMWF IS BETTER THIS PERIOD.
ON MONDAY THE FIRST WAVE THAT TOPS THE RIDGE FALLS INTO THE EASTERN
LONGWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH CWFA. FOR TUESDAY THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING UP WEST LIMB OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE PLAINS. WHERE THE ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE
THE AREAS OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SWAP ROLES
WITH 00Z ECMWF NOW FARTHER NORTH WITH ENERGY THAN THE GFS. HIGHEST
QPF LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE TRACK.
EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW APPEAR LATE IN THE
PERIOD. BASED ON THE WPC WEB GRAPHICS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST
SUPPORTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS PUTS THE CWFA IN A FAIRLY MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY VERY STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGHER 500MB
HEIGHTS COMING INTO THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A TREND TOWARDS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A SW
COMPONENT NEAR KDVL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A SFC TROUGH. THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAINLY FROM 21Z-02Z THIS EVENING MAINLY AT THE KGFK...KDVL
AND KTVF SITES. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH BUT HOLD OFF ON THUNDER
MENTION FOR NOW...WITH COVERAGE LIKELY NOT THAT WIDESPREAD...BUT
WILL MONITOR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
651 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MY SERN ZONES. LATEST RUC SHOWS INTENSE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING NORTH AND AFFECTING THE SERN
1/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR HIGHEST QPF AND FLOOD WATCH SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...WITH MAXES PROBABLY ONLY IN THE U60S MTNS...TO NEAR 70
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY.
TS ANDREA IS FCST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND EMERGE OVER
WATER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DEL MARVA. ONCE THE STORM REACHES
CENTRAL NJ PRECIP WILL BEGIN TAILING OFF RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. BY 06Z
I LOWERED POPS DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SMALL
CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE A BIT MUGGY
AND SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS
DIFFER A BIT IN TRYING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. THE SREF AND GEFS DOWNPLAY THINGS SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT
WE WILL START THE DAY CLOUDY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AND JUST AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT A BAD DAY AT
ALL DESPITE AVERAGING A COUPLE OF DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY
TO THE EAST OF 90W AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF MON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COMBINE TO FINALLY NUDGE
THE DECAYING UPPER LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
THE WETTEST TIMEFRAME WOULD APPEAR TO COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADVECTED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE ERN GLAKS
MON AND TUE BEFORE SLOWLY PROPOGATING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER AIR APPROACHES IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROF FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY KEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A
CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY. COMPLICATING
THINGS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS TO MY SOUTH AND DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BROAD SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GLAKS TO WELL OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH COULD
TAP WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND BRING COOL/DRIZZLY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. PLAYED THINGS OPTIMISTICALLY AT THIS
POINT TRENDING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH...AND WE`LL SEE
HOW THE EASTERLY FLOW AND FETCH OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME LIFR NOTED IN THE
WEST...CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF A KTHV TO KSEG
LINE.
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TS ANDREA SHOULD KEEP THIS SAME REGION
IN FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL THROUGH 06Z...THEN TAPERING QUICKLY
AFTER THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH OVERALL DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN...RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CIGS IFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF
TO OUR EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY IFR/MVFR...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS IN THE PM.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR THREE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN STILL A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ON
SMALL STREAMS MAY OCCUR IF THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. MAINSTEM RIVERS NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
324 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MY SERN ZONES. LATEST RUC SHOWS INTENSE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING NORTH AND AFFECTING THE SERN
1/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR HIGHEST QPF AND FLOOD WATCH SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...WITH MAXES PROBABLY ONLY IN THE U60S MTNS...TO NEAR 70
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY.
TS ANDREA IS FCST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND EMERGE OVER
WATER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DEL MARVA. ONCE THE STORM REACHES
CENTRAL NJ PRECIP WILL BEGIN TAILING OFF RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. BY 06Z
I LOWERED POPS DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SMALL
CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE A BIT MUGGY
AND SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS
DIFFER A BIT IN TRYING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. THE SREF AND GEFS DOWNPLAY THINGS SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT
WE WILL START THE DAY CLOUDY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AND JUST AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT A BAD DAY AT
ALL DESPITE AVERAGING A COUPLE OF DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY
TO THE EAST OF 90W AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF MON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COMBINE TO FINALLY NUDGE
THE DECAYING UPPER LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
THE WETTEST TIMEFRAME WOULD APPEAR TO COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TAPPED BY BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADVECTED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND POINTS
EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE ERN GLAKS
MON AND TUE BEFORE SLOWLY PROPOGATING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER AIR APPROACHES IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROF FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT A
WEAKENESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY KEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A
CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA INTO FRIDAY. COMPLICATING
THINGS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS TO MY SOUTH AND DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BROAD SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GLAKS TO WELL OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH COULD
TAP WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND BRING COOL/DRIZZLY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. PLAYED THINGS OPTIMISTICALLY AT THIS
POINT TRENDING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGH...AND WE`LL SEE
HOW THE EASTERLY FLOW AND FETCH OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE IT COULD BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY
LATER TONIGHT...POSSIBLY 10-20 MPH AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE NJ
COAST.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF
TO OUR EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY IFR/MVFR...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...VFR WITH THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS IN THE PM.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN FROM ANDREA
MOVES UP OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES WE NEED OVER 3 INCHES
OF RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND SOME OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE REACHES
THOSE NUMBERS. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR IF THE HEAVY
RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
202 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ROLE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MY SERN ZONES. LATEST RUC SHOWS INTENSE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING NORTH AND AFFECTING THE SERN
1/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH OUR HIGHEST QPF AND FLOOD WATCH SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...WITH MAXES PROBABLY ONLY IN THE U60S MTNS...TO NEAR 70
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY.
TS ANDREA IS FCST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND EMERGE OVER
WATER SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DEL MARVA. ONCE THE STORM REACHES
CENTRAL NJ PRECIP WILL BEGIN TAILING OFF RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. BY 06Z
I LOWERED POPS DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SMALL
CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE A BIT MUGGY
AND SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS
DIFFER A BIT IN TRYING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. THE SREF AND GEFS DOWNPLAY THINGS SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT
WE WILL START THE DAY CLOUDY WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AND JUST AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT A BAD DAY AT
ALL DESPITE AVERAGING A COUPLE OF DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR 90W IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW FORMING
IN THE UPPER MS VLY ON SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SEWD FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A HOT UPPER RIDGE MIGRATING EWD ACRS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND WEAKENING WRN ATLC
RIDGE SHOULD PAVE THE WAY FOR THIS ENERGY TO PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM
AND HELP TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALY
OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NERN CONUS...WITH NWLY FLOW PERSISTING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINA COAST.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING
THE H5 SYSTEM AND ASSOCD SFC LOW/FRONT EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY /MID-ATLC STATES ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
TUES. GFS/EC MODEL DIFFS INCREASE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT/POSITION OF A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/MCS ZONE. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE THEIR MOS-BASED DATA
FOR WX ELEMENTS WHICH BRINGS LOW CHC POPS BACK INTO THE SW ZONES
BY THURSDAY.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING TS ANDREA. THE HIGHEST POPS/PCPN SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON DAY 5/MON...THEN GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER /LESS
HUMID/ LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW REGIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE IT COULD BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY
LATER TONIGHT...POSSIBLY 10-20 MPH AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE NJ
COAST.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF
TO OUR EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY IFR/MVFR...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SUN...VFR WITH THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS IN THE PM.
SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN FROM ANDREA
MOVES UP OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES WE NEED OVER 3 INCHES
OF RAIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND SOME OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE REACHES
THOSE NUMBERS. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR IF THE HEAVY
RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK IN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...DEFORMATION PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CWFA...FROM ABOUT NEWLAND TO GREENWOOD. PRECIP
RATES IN THIS AREA ARE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR AND
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE ZONE IS TILTING SLIGHTLY WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING EAST FROM GREENWOOD/LAURENS COUNTIES.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE DFMTN BAND GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER NEXT
FEW HRS. MEANWHILE HEAVIER PRECIP NEARER ANDREA/S CIRCULATION LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO OUR ERN NC PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CHARLOTTE AND ITS ERN
METRO AREA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO THE NC SANDHILLS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON CHARLOTTE AREA FOR HYDRO CONCERNS.
FINALLY...LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER UPPER EAST TN WILL BRING
ENHANCED POPS TO THE CENTRAL NC MTNS THRU THE MORNING...THOUGH
DOWNSLOPING IS EATING THESE UP AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS. REVISED
POPS THRU EARLY AFTN IN LIGHT OF TRENDS AND 11Z HRRR. NOTE THAT WE
STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE THIS AFTN AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO RETURN AFTER THE TROPICAL/STRATIFORM PRECIP
DIMINISHES.
AS OF 500 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS NOW ENTERED SRN
SC...AND CONTINUES A NE TRACK AT INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
MEANWHILE...RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO CHANGE IN CONFIGURATION ACRS THE
CWFA AND THE REGION...BUT OVERALL HAVE NOT INTENSIFIED TO PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL RATES (AT LEAST IN THE CWFA). ONE PIVOT POINT OF
NEARLY STATIONARY MOD-HVY RAIN WAS SEEN IN E-CENTRAL GA. THE 06Z
HRRR HAD THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ZIP N INTO THE SRN UPR SAVANNAH
VALLEY AND WRN UPSTATE. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ANDERSON...WHERE
FFG IS LOWEST DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY/S HEAVY RAINS. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...WILL FRESHEN UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS STILL IN
EFFECT TILL 6 PM TODAY. POP GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THRU LATE
MORNING...WITH THE HRRR IN MIND.
PREV DISCUSSION...
LATER TODAY...LLVL FLOW WILL TURN N/NWLY ACRS THE CWFA...AS ANDREA
REACHES ERN NC. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS...AGREES WELL
ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROPICAL RAIN SHIELD AND
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TN VLY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN OUR WRN ZONES
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...SPREADING IT ACRS THE AREA LATE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING. I TWEAKED POP TRENDS TO LINE UP WITH THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AS THE BEST FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...ONCE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
UPPER TROFFINESS PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS. AT 850 MB...WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WHAT WE WILL LACK IS ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND BUOYANCY...DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN AS LONG AS THERE IS
NOTHING TO DISCOURAGE IT...A CHANCE POP IS WARRANTED. SO...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE BASED ON HIGHER
CAPE IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MODELS ACTUALLY RESPOND A BIT
BETTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WERE KEPT IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON AN UPPER TROF
CROSSING THE OH VALLEY MON AND MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TUE. THE GFS IS DRIER IN MID WEEK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH MINOR
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVING ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME AND CROSSING THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A DRIER MID WEEK THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 020 WILL LIKELY BE SEEN THRU EARLY AFTN
UNDER HIGH MVFR CIG. AS T.S. ANDREA SLOWLY DEPARTS THE AREA MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND BETTER HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE LOWER CLOUDS
LEAVING A CONVECTIVE VFR CIG. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LEE TROUGH IN WAKE OF ANDREA. THUNDER CHANCES RISE ACCORDINGLY.
THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EVENING PERIOD WITH
MORE BENIGN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WENT ALONG
WITH IFR STRATUS PROGGED BY SOME GUIDANCE. SHOULD LIFT BY MID
MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE IN CLEARER AREA
WEST OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. ANDREA. THINK THIS
WILL INITIALLY FOCUS IN THE MTNS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST AS THE WHOLE
AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH. SOME THUNDER MENTION
WARRANTED AT ALL SITES. THUNDER LOOKS TO BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN DOMINATING OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BASES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LOW VFR...PERHAPS MVFR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
NEAR DAYBREAK BUT MIX OUT BY MID MORNING. MTN VALLEY FOG ALSO LIKELY
GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS...INCLUDING AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA SHUD EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 90% HIGH 100% MED 69% HIGH 84%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 93%
KAVL HIGH 92% HIGH 94% HIGH 81% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 88%
KAND MED 78% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 83%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003-
006>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACIANS AND BACK INTO ALABAMA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10
AM CDT ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER
ATTM WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS. PRECIP
PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPREADING
NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS. TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS ARE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NWRN SECTION OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...FURTHER EAST THE AIRMASS IS MORE HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS NE MS.
TODAY...TROF AXIS WILL PUSH EAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MOS GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONCUR. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TN AND NORTH NS...ESPECIALLY
NE MS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROF
HEADS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY NOT REACHING 80
OVER THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FANTASTIC STRETCH OF
WEATHER. CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S...MAYBE EVEN A
FEW 50S. IF THE RAIN OCCURS AS PLANNED TODAY PATCHY FOG SEEMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MS LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PERFECT
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COMFORTABLE ALBEIT A TAD WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS
EAST AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. AN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S RESULTING
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TOO FAR OUT TO GET MORE
SPECIFIC THAN THAT ATTM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS BREAKING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SJM
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR THIS TAF PERIOD AT
MKL...MEM AND JBR. MKL MAY SEE TEMPORARY MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG/BR.
AT TUP...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL MVFR TO
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BR/FG MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR
POSSIBLE TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS AT 6-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 63 83 67 / 10 0 10 10
MKL 79 60 82 62 / 20 0 10 10
JBR 80 59 81 64 / 10 0 10 10
TUP 79 61 84 63 / 60 0 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
355 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...
...THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INTO A COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT...ENTERING WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE
NORTH EDWARDS PLATEAU AROUND 4 AM. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THIS SCENARIO
WHILE THE NAM DISSIPATES ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF THE AREA. WILL SIDE
WITH THE HRRR AND GFS AS CONVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN ITSELF GIVEN THE
SHORT WAVE AND A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL JET THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING. WENT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTH EDWARDS PLATEAU. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER 90S.
.LONG TERM...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS
KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...WEAKENING OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BIG COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS TEXAS NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A HOT AND DRY FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 63 89 72 93 74 / 20 20 10 5 5
SAN ANGELO 62 92 72 96 74 / 30 20 5 5 5
JUNCTION 62 91 70 93 73 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
322 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
STRONG SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTY AND LARAMIE COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAIN HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS SO FAR. LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH
AROUND 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. WITH THESE TYPE OF VALUES...CONCERN
WILL STILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE
HAIL THREAT IS QUITE SMALL. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING EASTWARD OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
00-12Z...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT IN THAT REGION. THIS IS WHERE THE
STRONGEST ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE AS THE SYSTEM DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
SFC TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH
PRESSURE RISES AND A FROPA. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH NORTHWESTERLY 700MB
WINDS AROUND 30-35 KT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WHILE IT WILL BE
A BREEZY DAY...BELIEVE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST 850-700MB WINDS ARE OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PANHANDLE
FOR SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING LIGHT
QPF IN THE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE REAL WARM-UP
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. A RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS IT CROSSES THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE LARAMIE
RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE.
A CLOSED LOW ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OPENS UP WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH TUESDAY AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR
CONVECTION WILL SET UP FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX AS
THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS.
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WEST OF THE
GREAT BASIN...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEFLECT ANY
SHORTWAVES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST
ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS SHOW A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM RAWLINS TO CHADRON.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
RISING SUNDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 16C. HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD MONDAY...700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 19C...WHICH EQUATES TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH THE
MERCURY INTO THE 80S AND 90S. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
EQUALED OR EXCEEDED IN SOME AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRIM HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL REMAIN
WARM. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10 DEGREES...AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND THEN 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE
10-15 PERCENT RANGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL ALSO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25-30 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FUELS ARE STILL GREEN AND DO NOT SUPPORT LARGE FIRE GROWTH...THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1150 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
SNOWY RANGE AND SOUTHERN ALBANY COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS ANYWHERE FROM 200-500 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH LITTLE CIN. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES A LARGER AREA OF
SHOWERS SPREADING FROM CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT.
THIS IS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WYOMING EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD EXIT
THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL BE SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SPRINKLES AND WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE STRONGER THAN THAT OF THURSDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM.
MODELS NOW ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER
THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY AS
OF THOSE OF TODAY. HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
SUNDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT ENCROACHES ON
US. MID LEVELS LOOK TOO WARM PROVIDING CAPPING INVERSION AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...CIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LIMITED LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
MONDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AND WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 18C AND BONE DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS...NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TAP AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE...PLEASE SEE CLIMATE
SECTION.
TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY UPCOMING AS A WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD INDUCING
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AIDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT LARAMIE...CHEYENNE...ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF AND
SIDNEY...PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION. MAY BE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO
CHADRON LINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...DRYING OUT AGAIN AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS DRY OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DUE TO UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
THURSDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND 700
MB TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 18C...ALONG WITH DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS
AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD AND BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT FRI JUN 7 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE GREENUP AND NON CRITICAL FUEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
THE CWA AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BETWEEN 10 AND
15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...WEILAND
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND