Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/06/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
847 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS BEEN NAMED AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS ARE KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. LATEST HRRR TENDS TO KEEP THIS TREND GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATED QPF GRIDS SLIGHTLY BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE SENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL KEEP
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS IN THE AREA FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED FAST MOVING SHRA WILL BE LIKELY
IN THIS PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT
IFR CONDITIONS DURING FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. VCSH CONDITIONS ARE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR
TONIGHT AND VCTS CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR NAPLES
-SHRA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH VCTS CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION FLARED UP JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER LAST NIGHT AND THIS HAS PRODUCED A MASSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR WATERS WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE BROAD
CIRCULATION LOCATION BUT DIFFER WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSEST
ALIGNMENT AND TAKE IT TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS PLACES SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A
CONTINUED FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WITH A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW
TODAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REAL
DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER RESTRICTING THE INSTABILITY
WHICH IS CURRENTLY LACKING. THIS ALSO IS REFLECTED IN THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE LAKE REGION BUT
NOTHING MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT. IN ADDITION, IT NOW APPEARS THAT
THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE SLIM
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO NEAR THE WEST COAST AND WATERSPOUTS OVER
THE GULF WATERS MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY. THIS
REALLY IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN FORM
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. IN ADDITION, AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH
THE SURFACE WIND WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY. THE GULF TIDES ARE
RUNNING AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL SO THIS COMBINED WITH THE
ONSHORE WIND, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY NEAR EVERGLADES CITY, MARCO ISLAND AND THE COASTAL
AREAS OF NAPLES.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES,
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT ALLOWING THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH SOME COOLING AT 500 MB BY ONE DEGREE CELSIUS. THE AFFECTS
WILL MAINLY BE MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH
BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE TRAILING TO ITS SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS WILL REVERT THE PATTERN BACK TO A EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE
EAST AND THEN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE... ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH WIND INCREASING TO SCA CRITERIA ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL SCEC ALL OTHER WATERS. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING EAST
AND DIMINISHING.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 83 76 83 / 50 60 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 85 78 86 / 40 60 50 60
MIAMI 76 85 77 84 / 40 60 50 60
NAPLES 73 84 76 84 / 70 70 50 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GULF WATERS
FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
601 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY IN A COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS OUR SOURCE REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY
3 DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST
WEEK AND THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS QUITE LIMITED.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LATEST ILX SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME EXPANDING EAST AS THEY FIGHT THE DRY AIR.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS...ALONG WITH THE SHORT RANGE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DRY AIR BY KEEPING THE
SHOWERS AT BAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-55.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. DUE TO THE
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY MODERATE LIFT
WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCH.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEFORE THE LOWER
LEVELS MOISTEN UP...SO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL
FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO CREATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...SO WILL STICK WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 70-75
RANGE FOR HIGHS.
A BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE AT ODDS LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH DEEPER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS
WHICH RESULTS IN A QUICKER RETURN FLOW...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
EARLIER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE
A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW SATURDAY...AND DONT START TO STRENGTHEN THE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PREFER
THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS RAIN OUT UNTIL SAT NIGHT IN WEST
CENTRAL IL AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY.
THE GFS...HOWEVER TRIES TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BY RAISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MUCH QUICKER ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LIFTING A WARM FRONT TOWARD IL.
THIS LOOKS A BIT TOO QUICK FOR NOW...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD (00Z/6TH).
BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MARCH SLOWLY EAST WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
FROM AROUND 5000 FEET THRU 9000 FEET...SUGGESTING THE WEAKENING
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RAIN TO OUR WEST. MAY SEE SOME SCT-
BKN CIGS BTWN 4000-5000 FEET AFTR 09Z TONIGHT...ESP ACRS THE
WEST...BUT OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES...NO SIG PRECIP IS
EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THAT WILL BE THE STORY AS WELL
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN CIGS WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
A FACTOR THRU THE PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST DIRECTION EXPECTED
AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
312 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY IN A COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS OUR SOURCE REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY
3 DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST
WEEK AND THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS QUITE LIMITED.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LATEST ILX SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME EXPANDING EAST AS THEY FIGHT THE DRY AIR.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS...ALONG WITH THE SHORT RANGE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DRY AIR BY KEEPING THE
SHOWERS AT BAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-55.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. DUE TO THE
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY MODERATE LIFT
WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCH.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEFORE THE LOWER
LEVELS MOISTEN UP...SO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL
FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO CREATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...SO WILL STICK WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 70-75
RANGE FOR HIGHS.
A BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE AT ODDS LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH DEEPER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS
WHICH RESULTS IN A QUICKER RETURN FLOW...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
EARLIER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE
A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW SATURDAY...AND DONT START TO STRENGTHEN THE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PREFER
THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS RAIN OUT UNTIL SAT NIGHT IN WEST
CENTRAL IL AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY.
THE GFS...HOWEVER TRIES TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BY RAISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MUCH QUICKER ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LIFTING A WARM FRONT TOWARD IL.
THIS LOOKS A BIT TOO QUICK FOR NOW...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
MILLER
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINAL
AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM WED. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3.5-5K FT TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRIEFLY SEE BROKEN CEILINGS AT SPI AND DEC WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS
MORE WIDESPREAD. ALSO HAVE BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS OF 20-25K FT
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY. 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MICHIGAN TO DRIFT NE AND CONNECT WITH 1028 MB CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY BY 18Z/1 PM WED BUT STILL RIDGING SW INTO
CENTRAL IL. THIS KEEPS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM 850-700 MB IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL IL THROUGH MIDDAY WED. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY NEXT 24 HOURS. JUST HAVE VCSH AT PIA AFTER 15Z/10 AM WED
WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STAYING NW
OF PIA TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. NAM MODEL HAS VSBYS OF 4-5 MILES
AT DEC AND CMI FROM 12-15Z WED BUT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING.
HAVE MID LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVING TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND LOWER
TO 5-10K FT DURING WED MORNING. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOME EAST NEAR 5 KTS THIS EVENING AND SE 5-8 KTS WED
MORNING.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
218 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN A SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DO EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
WEST...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AS THEY MOVE INTO A DRIER
AIRMASS. WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY.
GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR COOL START THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM APPEARS TO
OVERDO A SURFACE LOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...DUE TO POOR HANDLING OF
CONVECTION. WILL GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE THE CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...AND SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING DURING MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS HAVE BACKED OFF POPS...AND ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EXTREME WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...SO WENT A LITTLE BELOW
THE MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.
WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH...WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS STILL TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...WENT CHANCE POPS.
MOS NUMBERS LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WENT COOLER
THAN MAV MOS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH THE RAIN AROUND. A MODEL
BLEND LOOKS OK FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE
TRAILING UPPER WAVE DEPART TO THE EAST. SUSPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SHIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS NOT
INDICATING A LOT OF DRY AIR PRESENT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
ONLY LIGHT NORTHEAST THEN VARIABLE FLOW. STRONG UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SPIN UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
OP GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HINT AT AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT
WEEK FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON. FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TONIGHT. CU FIELD HAS FORMED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.
CURRENT RAP KEEPS THE THERMAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKENS IT
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FEW CU AT
KBMG...OTHERWISE EXPECT NO IMPACTS AT TERMINALS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY...POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CU IS GREATER ON WEDNESDAY
AS RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. E/SE WINDS EXPECTED THOROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN A SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DO EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
WEST...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AS THEY MOVE INTO A DRIER
AIRMASS. WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY.
GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR COOL START THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM APPEARS TO
OVERDO A SURFACE LOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...DUE TO POOR HANDLING OF
CONVECTION. WILL GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE THE CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...AND SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING DURING MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS HAVE BACKED OFF POPS...AND ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EXTREME WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...SO WENT A LITTLE BELOW
THE MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.
WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH...WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS STILL TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...WENT CHANCE POPS.
MOS NUMBERS LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WENT COOLER
THAN MAV MOS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH THE RAIN AROUND. A MODEL
BLEND LOOKS OK FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE COULD BE
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRUGS THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND LOOK
GOOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND CONSIDERING 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER PROGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON. FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TONIGHT. CU FIELD HAS FORMED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.
CURRENT RAP KEEPS THE THERMAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKENS IT
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FEW CU AT
KBMG...OTHERWISE EXPECT NO IMPACTS AT TERMINALS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY...POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CU IS GREATER ON WEDNESDAY
AS RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. E/SE WINDS EXPECTED THOROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1040 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE 0Z NAM IS ALMOST CERTAINLY OVERDOING CONVECTION ACROSS EAST KY
FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR RUNS SHOW A RELATIVELY
INACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST KY SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION NOW OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION WILL WORK TOWARD EAST
KY OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA BY DAWN. CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS WITH ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH. AT
PRESENT THERE APPEARS TO BE THINNING CLOUDS ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WELL AND IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG ENOUGH THIS MIGHT GET DENSE IN A
FEW SPOTS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
ONCE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE VA BORDER
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS A RELATIVE LULL IN
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. THE RECENT NAM AND HRRR RUNS BOTH INDICATE
THAT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY APPROACH THE CWA FROM CENTRAL KY TOWARD
DAWN. BEFORE THIS ARRIVES...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOURLY POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS...A MESOSCALE CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE DURING THE MORNING WAS ABLE TO
SPAWN A GROUP TO THE NORTH THAT HAS ROLLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO ENVELOP THE REST OF
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY UNFOLDED ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MID 80S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 70S LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND THE STORMS INTERRUPTED THE DIURNAL RISE. HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR SURGED NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH MID 60S
REPORTED ACROSS MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AT MID AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
SOME UPPER 60S OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE KEY MID LEVEL FEATURES
AFFECTING THE AREA/S FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN SOURCE
OF TROUBLE REVOLVES AROUND A LOW OVER THE GULF THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THE NAM AND SREF TAKE THIS WAVE...AND ITS SFC REFLECTION...
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER MODELS/ TRACKS AND THE NHC. THIS ALSO
IMPACTS THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
NAM ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE THE NAM
HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
ECMWF FAVORED INSTEAD. HOWEVER...THE NAM12...ALONG WITH THE HRRR...
DOES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY CURRENTLY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE USED A COMBINATION OF THESE
SOLUTIONS INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THIS FIRST WAVE WILL BE A PROMINENT
COMPONENT IN OUR WX.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
FROM THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
LEFTOVER OR STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING HELPING TO YIELD
GOOD COVERAGE. PWS WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT MAKING HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY. EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW PASSING BY TO
THE SOUTH...TO MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS...
ZFP AND HWO.
USED THE CONSSHORT FOR A STARTING POINT FOR TD AND WINDS WITH CONSALL
FOR TEMPS. GIVEN THE SATURATED AIR MASS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DID
NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON TERRAIN. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE MOS GUIDANCE WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS STARTS OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY . EVEN THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA...THE MIDWEST WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A WEAK TROUGH. A
FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A RELIEF BUT THEN
ON SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL LEAVE EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR IS SOME WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. THIS
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE MOVING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL
BLEND...THEN NUDGED THEM TO THE COOLER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND
SOME BREAKS/THINNING OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
OCCASIONAL VIS REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A
COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA. IN THIS CONVECTION...
CIGS COULD FALL TO IFR BRIEFLY AT TIMES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
822 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
ONCE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE VA BORDER
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS A RELATIVE LULL IN
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. THE RECENT NAM AND HRRR RUNS BOTH INDICATE
THAT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY APPROACH THE CWA FROM CENTRAL KY TOWARD
DAWN. BEFORE THIS ARRIVES...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOURLY POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS...A MESOSCALE CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE DURING THE MORNING WAS ABLE TO
SPAWN A GROUP TO THE NORTH THAT HAS ROLLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO ENVELOP THE REST OF
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY UNFOLDED ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MID 80S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 70S LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND THE STORMS INTERRUPTED THE DIURNAL RISE. HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR SURGED NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH MID 60S
REPORTED ACROSS MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AT MID AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
SOME UPPER 60S OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE KEY MID LEVEL FEATURES
AFFECTING THE AREA/S FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN SOURCE
OF TROUBLE REVOLVES AROUND A LOW OVER THE GULF THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THE NAM AND SREF TAKE THIS WAVE...AND ITS SFC REFLECTION...
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER MODELS/ TRACKS AND THE NHC. THIS ALSO
IMPACTS THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
NAM ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE THE NAM
HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
ECMWF FAVORED INSTEAD. HOWEVER...THE NAM12...ALONG WITH THE HRRR...
DOES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY CURRENTLY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE USED A COMBINATION OF THESE
SOLUTIONS INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THIS FIRST WAVE WILL BE A PROMINENT
COMPONENT IN OUR WX.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
FROM THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
LEFTOVER OR STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING HELPING TO YIELD
GOOD COVERAGE. PWS WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT MAKING HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY. EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW PASSING BY TO
THE SOUTH...TO MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS...
ZFP AND HWO.
USED THE CONSSHORT FOR A STARTING POINT FOR TD AND WINDS WITH CONSALL
FOR TEMPS. GIVEN THE SATURATED AIR MASS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DID
NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON TERRAIN. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE MOS GUIDANCE WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS STARTS OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY . EVEN THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA...THE MIDWEST WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A WEAK TROUGH. A
FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A RELIEF BUT THEN
ON SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL LEAVE EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR IS SOME WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. THIS
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE MOVING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL
BLEND...THEN NUDGED THEM TO THE COOLER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND
SOME BREAKS/THINNING OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
OCCASIONAL VIS REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A
COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA. IN THIS CONVECTION...
CIGS COULD FALL TO IFR BRIEFLY AT TIMES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN
WI. CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE HAS
HELPED BRING CLEARING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH DISSIPATING HIGH
CLOUDS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVER THE CWA.
UPSTREAM...700-500 MB FGEN AND ASSOCIATED 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO CNTRL MN.
TODAY...THE GFS WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY THE AREA OF 300K-305K LIFT. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/NAM/GEM AND HIGH RES MODELS THAT KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN
INTO THE FAR SOUTH OR TO JUST ALONG THE WI BORDER WERE
PREFERRED...GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND
GENERALLY WEAK FORCING. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND. LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS MN
INTO FAR WRN WI. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER NRN WI AND SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE SW HALF OF UPPER
MI. SO...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEAR THE WI BORDER DURING THE
EVENING WITH RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
OVER THE COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE EAST. THICKENING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF AS
MUCH WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE
AFFECTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL
LOOKING LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR SEEING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BROAD 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION...850-500MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...AND 290-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
FOLLOW THAT IDEA...BUT STILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS /LIKELY VALUES/
ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
ROBUST WITH QPF ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING THE SHORTWAVE
AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA...SO POPS/QPF MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED UP FURTHER. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE THE WEST/CENTRAL SEEING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON THURSDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST
THE RAIN WILL REACH. WHEN DEALING WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS RUNNING
INTO THE EXISTING DRY AIR FROM AN EXITING HIGH...THE MODELS TEND TO
OVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE VARIABILITY
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL MENTION CHANCE/SLIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE DIVING SOUTH AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA FROM THE JAMES BAY HIGH...EXPECT DIMINISHING POPS/CLOUDS
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE
SOME MID CLOUDS LINGERING WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTS. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH OVER
NORTHWEST QUEBEC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRY TO WARM
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR /FORECAST HIGHS 60S TO
LOWER 70S/...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER
THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE /AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS
WAVE WILL AMPLIFY A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
DESPITE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TO THE
SW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WITH HI PRES NEAR UPR MI
DOMINATING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL LOWER
ON WED WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AT IWD. DRY AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE TO
PREVENT ANY LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING AT IWD DUE TO THE RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO REAL STRONG PRESSURE
SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE AREA. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...WAVES WILL NOT BE
TOO HIGH EITHER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN
WI. CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE HAS
HELPED BRING CLEARING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH DISSIPATING HIGH
CLOUDS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVER THE CWA.
UPSTREAM...700-500 MB FGEN AND ASSOCIATED 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO CNTRL MN.
TODAY...THE GFS WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY THE AREA OF 300K-305K LIFT. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/NAM/GEM AND HIGH RES MODELS THAT KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN
INTO THE FAR SOUTH OR TO JUST ALONG THE WI BORDER WERE
PREFERRED...GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND
GENERALLY WEAK FORCING. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND. LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS MN
INTO FAR WRN WI. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER NRN WI AND SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE SW HALF OF UPPER
MI. SO...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEAR THE WI BORDER DURING THE
EVENING WITH RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
OVER THE COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE EAST. THICKENING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF AS
MUCH WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE
AFFECTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL
LOOKING LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR SEEING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BROAD 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION...850-500MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...AND 290-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
FOLLOW THAT IDEA...BUT STILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS /LIKELY VALUES/
ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
ROBUST WITH QPF ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING THE SHORTWAVE
AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA...SO POPS/QPF MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED UP FURTHER. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE THE WEST/CENTRAL SEEING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON THURSDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST
THE RAIN WILL REACH. WHEN DEALING WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS RUNNING
INTO THE EXISTING DRY AIR FROM AN EXITING HIGH...THE MODELS TEND TO
OVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE VARIABILITY
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL MENTION CHANCE/SLIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE DIVING SOUTH AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA FROM THE JAMES BAY HIGH...EXPECT DIMINISHING POPS/CLOUDS
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE
SOME MID CLOUDS LINGERING WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTS. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH OVER
NORTHWEST QUEBEC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRY TO WARM
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR /FORECAST HIGHS 60S TO
LOWER 70S/...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER
THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE /AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS
WAVE WILL AMPLIFY A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
DESPITE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TO THE SW...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WNDS WITH HIGH PRES NEAR UPPER MI DOMINATING
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN AT IWD WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT CMX/SAW WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO REAL STRONG PRESSURE
SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE AREA. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...WAVES WILL NOT BE
TOO HIGH EITHER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ002>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
443 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN
WI. CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE HAS
HELPED BRING CLEARING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH DISSIPATING HIGH
CLOUDS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVER THE CWA.
UPSTREAM...700-500 MB FGEN AND ASSOCIATED 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO CNTRL MN.
TODAY...THE GFS WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY THE AREA OF 300K-305K LIFT. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/NAM/GEM AND HIGH RES MODELS THAT KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN
INTO THE FAR SOUTH OR TO JUST ALONG THE WI BORDER WERE
PREFERRED...GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND
GENERALLY WEAK FORCING. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND. LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS MN
INTO FAR WRN WI. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER NRN WI AND SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE SW HALF OF UPPER
MI. SO...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEAR THE WI BORDER DURING THE
EVENING WITH RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
OVER THE COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE EAST. THICKENING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF AS
MUCH WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE
AFFECTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL
LOOKING LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR SEEING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BROAD 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION...850-500MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...AND 290-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
FOLLOW THAT IDEA...BUT STILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS /LIKELY VALUES/
ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
ROBUST WITH QPF ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING THE SHORTWAVE
AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA...SO POPS/QPF MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED UP FURTHER. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE THE WEST/CENTRAL SEEING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON THURSDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST
THE RAIN WILL REACH. WHEN DEALING WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS RUNNING
INTO THE EXISTING DRY AIR FROM AN EXITING HIGH...THE MODELS TEND TO
OVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE VARIABILITY
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL MENTION CHANCE/SLIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE DIVING SOUTH AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA FROM THE JAMES BAY HIGH...EXPECT DIMINISHING POPS/CLOUDS
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE
SOME MID CLOUDS LINGERING WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTS. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH OVER
NORTHWEST QUEBEC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRY TO WARM
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR /FORECAST HIGHS 60S TO
LOWER 70S/...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER
THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE /AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS
WAVE WILL AMPLIFY A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
DESPITE SOME INCRSG HI CLDS AHEAD OF A WARM FNT TO THE SW AND EVEN
THE CHC OF A -SHRA AT IWD LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS/LIGHT WNDS WITH HI PRES NEAR UPR MI DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO REAL STRONG PRESSURE
SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE AREA. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...WAVES WILL NOT BE
TOO HIGH EITHER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ002>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1108 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE DEPICTED ON 0.5 REFLECTIVITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE...FROM WILLMAR TO
JUST WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INDUCED CONVECTION
HAS SLOWLY BEEN ERODING IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE
19Z. HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF PLACEMENT OF SAID SYSTEM...BUT
HAS LACKED ACCURACY ON EROSION. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATE ENTIRE AREA
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND DISINTEGRATE.
THROTTLED BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING WITH DRYING TREND ANTICIPATED
AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TREKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
HALF OF MN ...PER THE GFS40 305K ANALYSIS. MUCH OF MN FA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM 04/06Z-12Z IN
RESPONSE TO PROXIMITY OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 250MB 90KT SPEED MAX
NOTED ENTERING WEST CENTRAL AND NW MN THIS TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS UPGLIDE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON GFS...NAM80 ALSO BRINGS IN
MODERATE UPGLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM 12Z-18Z ON TUE. WITH THAT
SAID ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR FROM
TUESDAY MORNING INTO LATE TUESDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST PRECIP PROGGED
TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS. SE FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TOMORROW AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AS INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL GLIDE THROUGH MN TUE NIGHT INTO WED ON
ITS WAY INTO NRN WI...PUSHING ALONG ITS SFC REFLECTION LOW PRES
CENTER. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE GREAT LAKES MIDDAY WED...BUT A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
DAY THU. THOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WILL NEED TO KEEP SHWRS IN THE FCST GOING INTO THU UNTIL
THIS SYSTEM AS A WHOLE EXITS THE REGION. A PRONOUNCED SLY PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH QPF/S IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND EVEN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
SLANTWISE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO ENHANCE WIDE-SCALE LIFT.
DESPITE THE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE IN THE AREA...INSTABILITY DOES NOT
APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY COMPACT SO
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEFINITIVE LACK OF EVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN THE FCST BUT ITS COVERAGE WILL BE
QUITE MEAGER. WITH THE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS AND THE ZONAL FLOW
OF THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING ACROSS...THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO
AIRMASS CHANGE...MEANING THAT THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE UPR 50S
TO LWR 60S WHILE LOWS HOLD IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CLEARING-OUT PERIOD WILL ENVELOP
THE AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRI EVE AS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE BUT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS...NUDGING INTO THE
UPR 60S FOR FRI. HOWEVER...THE IMPACT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE BRIEF
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPS IN FROM CANADA...BRINGING A
CONGLOMERATION OF LOW PRES CENTERS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
THRU THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PLUMES OF MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS
TROUGH...MAKING FOR ANOTHER EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HIGHS
AROUND 70. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA LATE SUN INTO
MON...THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE APPRECIABLE WARMUP
AND DRYING OUT PERIOD IS COMING FOR THE EARLY-TO-MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOR GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT
TO STATE AS SUCH WITH GREATER CERTAINTY SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
THE MODELS EVOLVE THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO KAXN AND KRWF AFTER 06Z WITH SHORT RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS THEY
REACH INTO EASTERN MN BY DAYBREAK AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE MORNING. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SD/NE IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME AS IT APPROACHES KAXN AND KRWF OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY VCTS INDICATED. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ON TUESDAY ARE A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
AT ANY OF THE MN TAF SITES. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY AS THE SHOWERS INCREASE WITH IFR CIGS
INDICATED INTO KAXN/KRWF BY LATE IN THE MORNING...AND INTO
KSTC/KMSP/KRNH AND KEAU IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT TRENDED
DOWN ON CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
KMSP...A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE AIRFIELD BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE
IN THE MORNING AND TO IFR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE IFR CIGS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...IFR CIGS BCMG MVFR. -SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 5KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA. WIND NE 10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 5KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
900 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AFFECTING MANY CENTRAL MS
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION. THIS COMPLEX WAS GENERALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT THAN MANY HI RESOLUTION WRF MODELS HAD
ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS IMPORTANT CONSIDERING CONSENSUS OUTPUT FROM
THESE MODELS FORECASTS ANOTHER LARGE CLUSTER COMING THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. BUT STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
ESSENTIALLY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE A GOOD DEAL OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND THEREFORE IT IS NOT A VERY RIPE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
RECENTLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
THERE HAVE BEEN VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING NEAR THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ACTUAL FRONTS. WESTERN
IMPORT OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE ARKLATEX IS HELPING TO FEED
THESE STORMS WHILE WINDS GENERALLY TRY TO PUSH ACTIVITY TOWARD OUR
REGION. BUT...AS MENTIONED...THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER EAST IS
PRESENTLY SOMEWHAT HOSTILE TO THUNDER MAINTENANCE AND THUS THIS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DWINDLING BEFORE ENTERING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. MOST RECENT NAM AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS ACTIVITY
FESTERING JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH I CAN STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A SMALL
COMPLEX HEADED WELL INTO THE REGION VERY LATE IF A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER AGGREGATES.
MAIN FORECAST UPDATES WERE TO CUT BACK POPS IN ALMOST ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING AND PUT THE MAIN FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN MORE ON
WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES AND THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS IS BEING TAPPED BY A MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS BEING MAINTAINED BY OUTFLOW FROM AR
INTO NWRN MS IN AND AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE YIELDING ~3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER
CAPE. THIS HAS LED TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY.
STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR AND
THIS IS ALLOWING A COLD POOL TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND
IGNITE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING.
THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND AT LEAST SEMI-
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT EARLY THURS MORNING...BUT SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
EXPLICITLY INDICATES THAT A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE FORECAST AND
CONTINUED THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRAPHICS HWO
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. /EC/
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY ON
FRIDAY AS A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER WEEKEND
EXPECTED AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S LOOK PROBABLE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKING PRECIP CHANCES A TOUCH TRICKY.
OVERALL PATTERN WILL MIGRATE FROM A MODEST S/WV TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING AXIS ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO A
SUBTLE S/WV NW FLOW TROUGHING REGIME OVER THE WEEKEND TO A WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AS A MODESTLY PROGGED 593DM RIDGE SETS
UP OVER S-CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFTS OVER THE REGION
BY MID WEEK. 05/00Z GFS VS. 04/12Z EC SHOWED STRONGER MOMENTUM TO
WEEKEND BOUNDARY GETTING FARTHER SOUTH NEAR I-10 CORRIDOR AND
SLIDING A H7 SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE UNDER THE DEVELOPING H5 S-CNTRL
PLAINS RIDGE INDICATING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EC HAS BEEN SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
RIDGE, LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR POTENTIAL NW FLOW MCS/S WITH
SEVERAL APPARENT INDICATIONS IN QPF MASS FIELDS. YET, HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS 00Z GFS GIVEN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN H7 AND H5 ENSEMBLE
MEAN/PERTURBATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS. LATEST 00Z EC COMING IN HAS
SHIFTED H5 RIDGE AXIS FARTHER EAST, HELPING INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN
HOTTER/DRIER FORECAST. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL NW SURPRISES IF RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BUILD IN.
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY
AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG BUT THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE EXITING EAST BEFORE
BEST AFTN DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PUSHED
FARTHER SOUTH SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT AFTN FOR FAR
SOUTH AREAS AS SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY FLARES UP UNDER PREVAILING NW
FLOW. TEMPS SAT MRNG WILL MORE COMFORTABLE AS OF LATE WITH READINGS
DOWN IN THE LOW 60S. MOISTURE WILL REBOUND QUICKLY SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A HINT OF
AN EMBEDDED SMALLER WAVE IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS A TOUCH FOR W/NW AREAS IN PROXIMITY TO WAVE WHILE
LEAVING INTACT POPS FOR SOUTH AREAS AS SEA-BREEZE ACTION COMMENCES
AGAIN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START TO FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY IN THE MID
90S AS THE H7-5 RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE ARKLAMISS.
TEMPERED TEMPS 1-2F DOWN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF RIDGE NOT BUILDING IN
AS FAST AS GFS ADVERTISED VS. EC AND INCREASED POPS BY 5% TO CARRY
SOME POTENTIAL FOR NW CONVECTION DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UNCAPPED,
DEEPER MOISTURE GRADIENT, AND SUBTLE S/WV TROUGHING TRAIN SETS UP
ALONG A NW/SE AXIS NEARBY. /ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW VISBIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AERODROME.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS WELL ALOFT WILL LIKELY
KEEP WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM OCCURRING THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS HAZARDS WILL BE
HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WITH CHANCES OF STORMS
TOMORROW RUNNING RATHER HIGH AT MOST SITES. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 69 87 69 87 / 30 68 58 23
MERIDIAN 67 89 69 88 / 18 60 67 39
VICKSBURG 71 88 67 87 / 45 73 47 16
HATTIESBURG 69 90 71 90 / 39 46 49 38
NATCHEZ 70 87 69 87 / 41 63 44 13
GREENVILLE 72 87 67 85 / 63 62 33 11
GREENWOOD 71 86 67 85 / 47 65 42 17
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/EC/ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z...
STRETCHING FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO JUST WEST OF HEBRON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO POP UP JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEST OF OMAHA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST WITH HRRR PLACING EMPHASIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT EAST AND SOUTH OF
OMAHA. FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY REACHING
NORTHERN TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED
BY MODELS FOR LIMITED RAIN CHANCE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS STILL SHOW A COLD FRONT COMING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARMING TEMPERATURES
INDICATED AFTER THAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025 WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER KOFK AREA BY 22Z AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z AND COULD AFFECT KLNK
AND KOMA TAF SITES. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
BEHIND COLD FRONT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 04Z AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH ONLY MID LEVEL CIGS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1257 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TRYING TO REFINE
THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...AT LEAST SLIGHT
POPS ARE BEING ADVERTISED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA AT ANY GIVEN
TIME. ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
PROBABILITY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SECONDARY TO PRECIP...SKY COVER AND ITS
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL.
AT 0930Z...OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AF FEW FAIRLY
SUBTLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY-
BETTER DEFINED 1002 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CO/KS/OK
BORDER AREA. OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A 1025MB HIGH SAT OVER MT.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCREDIBLY WELL-DEFINED...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH CONNECTED THE LOW
PRESSURE AREAS AND EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS SEPARATED A PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZE TO
ITS NORTH/WEST FROM A PREDOMINANT EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE STILL
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICTED THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-
DEFINED CLOSED 500MB LOW SPINNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY
KICKING ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS WAVE IS WORKING
IN CONCERT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 35+ KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET
AND ITS ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT STORMS BEING A DUD IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALSO A
FEW CORES HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY PULSED UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY
SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL-WISE...RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE CWA
HAS STRUGGLED TO MEASURE ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER EXCEPTIONS EXIST...INCLUDING A LIKELY
CORRIDOR OF 1+ INCH THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN DAWSON COUNTY. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.
EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
GENERALLY EXPECTED THEME OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT OF
THE CWA FROM WEST-EAST IS OCCURRING...WITH MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 ALREADY PRECIP-FREE AT THIS HOUR. THIS HAS TURNED OUT
TO BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...DISORGANIZED NOCTURNAL SUB-SEVERE
MULTICELL EVENT...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE EVEN PENNY-NICKEL
SIZE HAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO ELEVATED CAPE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER AVERAGING UNDER 500 J/KG PER LATEST RAP AND
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC QPF FIELDS AND HIGHER-RES
REFLECTITY PROGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND FOCUSES MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRIED TO SHOW DIMINISHING POPS
WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WAS NOT ABOUT TO PULL COMPLETELY EXCEPT
IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA FROM
WEST-EAST...INCLUDING UP A THE 850MB LEVEL...AND THIS COULD
CERTAINLY SPARK THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SPOTTY CONVECTION...EVEN IF THERE IS A LULL FOR AWHILE...AND THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE 08Z HRRR. AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...STEADY NORTH BREEZES AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY INVADE FROM WEST-EAST...PROGRESSIVELY SHUNTING THE
FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY AXIS EAST WITH IT. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...BOTH THE NAM/RAP FOCUS THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 0-1KM MLCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG JUST BARELY
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA...BUT POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR EDGES...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LOWER INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY AFFECT OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND ALTHOUGH NOT
SEEMING LIKELY...IT JUST CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
EAST/SOUTH OF A FULLERTON-RED CLOUD-STOCKTON LINE GIVEN DECENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT...AND THUS WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY
SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT GENERALLY
LINES UP WITH THE SPC DAY 1 5 PERCENT SEVERE CONTOUR. AGAIN
THOUGH... AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA STANDS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STAYING STORM-FREE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD AND TEMP-WISE
TODAY...THE BIG WILD CARD SEEMS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS MIGHT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS
LIKELY AT LEAST DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STRATUS...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR STILL INSIST THAT
AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS COULD STILL DEVELOP AND
LINGER ACROSS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
AREAS...AM STARTING TO QUESTION THIS A BIT. AT LEAST FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL ASSUME THIS MIGHT STILL HAPPEN...AND THUS HAVE
RATHER HIGH SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TODAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN BANKING ON EXTENSIVE CLOUDS KEEPING HIGHS LOW-
MID 70S IN NEB ZONES AND MAINLY UPPER 70S IN KS. HOWEVER...IF ITS
ENDS UP SUNNIER THAN EXPECTED THEN SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WILL BE
NEEDED.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/TONIGHT PERIOD 00Z-12Z/7PM-7AM...CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP DETAILS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...BUT HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
NO MORE THAN 40-50 PERCENT...AND EVEN THESE VALUES HOLD OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...THE CWA WILL
COME UNDER INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
TO THE NORTH...THE CLOSED 500MB DAKOTAS LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO
FAR WESTERN MN BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WHILE AS IT DOES SO ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CWA GETS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER
JET...WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE A CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS TO TAKE AIM ON PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF
THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY
NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 5-10 MPH. BACKING UP AND FOCUSING ON
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
DRY...AND HAVE MAINLY FOCUSED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS KS ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING/PERSISTING
NEAR THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS MAY
BE A STRETCH...AND EVEN IF IT WOULD OCCUR AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
SEVERE STORM THREAT AFTER 7PM. THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT...HAVE
GRADUALLY BROUGHT BACK UP 20-50 POPS INTO NEB ZONES...ONLY
EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF
REALIZING THIS LATE-NIGHT RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...WITH THIS AREA MOST FAVORED TO REALIZE CONVECTION
MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND/OR PRECIP DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD WITHIN THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION. CERTAINLY NOT
SEEING THIS AS A WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS
THOUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...AT LEAST
SOUTHERN ZONES COULD STILL SEE ELEVATED CAPE OF 500+ J/KG...AND
THUS WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THIS LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT.
TEMP-WISE...CHANGED PREVIOUS LOWS VERY LITTLE...RANGING FROM NEAR
50 FAR NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WE BEGIN MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE AS THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...MORE LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE TO BE. MUCAPES LOOK VERY LOW TO NON-EXISTENT...WHICH LED ME
TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING LACK OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.
THE JET STREAK SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD GIVE US A DRY PERIOD
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD MAKE ITS WAY
EAST AND BE MAINTAINED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
THE AXIS POTENTIALLY OVER OUR CWA. THE JET SHOULD BE ON THE MODEST
SIDE...AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE WITHIN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTRODUCED
FROM A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AS WELL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE HELP FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET COULD INTENSIFY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT BY THIS TIME...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD WIND UP STALLING...AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION TOWARD NEXT WORK WEEK. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO MONDAY OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL IN
TURN...KEEP US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY
PASSING WAVES/PERTURBATIONS TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
OVERALL...A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES...IS ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST
TO THE WEST...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGRI THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING FRONT CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COULD EVEN SEE A -TSRA OR TWO
NEAR THE TERMINAL DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...WITH A TRANSITION
TO ONLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS INSTABILITY WANES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS PASSING FRONT...GUSTING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TRYING TO REFINE
THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...AT LEAST SLIGHT
POPS ARE BEING ADVERTISED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA AT ANY GIVEN
TIME. ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
PROBABILITY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SECONDARY TO PRECIP...SKY COVER AND ITS
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL.
AT 0930Z...OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AF FEW FAIRLY
SUBTLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY-
BETTER DEFINED 1002 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CO/KS/OK
BORDER AREA. OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A 1025MB HIGH SAT OVER MT.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCREDIBLY WELL-DEFINED...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH CONNECTED THE LOW
PRESSURE AREAS AND EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS SEPARATED A PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZE TO
ITS NORTH/WEST FROM A PREDOMINANT EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE STILL
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICTED THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-
DEFINED CLOSED 500MB LOW SPINNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY
KICKING ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS WAVE IS WORKING
IN CONCERT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 35+ KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET
AND ITS ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT STORMS BEING A DUD IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALSO A
FEW CORES HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY PULSED UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY
SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL-WISE...RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE CWA
HAS STRUGGLED TO MEASURE ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER EXCEPTIONS EXIST...INCLUDING A LIKELY
CORRIDOR OF 1+ INCH THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN DAWSON COUNTY. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.
EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
GENERALLY EXPECTED THEME OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT OF
THE CWA FROM WEST-EAST IS OCCURRING...WITH MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 ALREADY PRECIP-FREE AT THIS HOUR. THIS HAS TURNED OUT
TO BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...DISORGANIZED NOCTURNAL SUB-SEVERE
MULTICELL EVENT...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE EVEN PENNY-NICKEL
SIZE HAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO ELEVATED CAPE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER AVERAGING UNDER 500 J/KG PER LATEST RAP AND
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC QPF FIELDS AND HIGHER-RES
REFLECTITY PROGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND FOCUSES MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRIED TO SHOW DIMINISHING POPS
WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WAS NOT ABOUT TO PULL COMPLETELY EXCEPT
IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA FROM
WEST-EAST...INCLUDING UP A THE 850MB LEVEL...AND THIS COULD
CERTAINLY SPARK THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SPOTTY CONVECTION...EVEN IF THERE IS A LULL FOR AWHILE...AND THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE 08Z HRRR. AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...STEADY NORTH BREEZES AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY INVADE FROM WEST-EAST...PROGRESSIVELY SHUNTING THE
FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY AXIS EAST WITH IT. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...BOTH THE NAM/RAP FOCUS THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 0-1KM MLCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG JUST BARELY
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA...BUT POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR EDGES...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LOWER INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY AFFECT OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND ALTHOUGH NOT
SEEMING LIKELY...IT JUST CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
EAST/SOUTH OF A FULLERTON-RED CLOUD-STOCKTON LINE GIVEN DECENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT...AND THUS WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY
SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT GENERALLY
LINES UP WITH THE SPC DAY 1 5 PERCENT SEVERE CONTOUR. AGAIN
THOUGH... AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA STANDS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STAYING STORM-FREE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD AND TEMP-WISE
TODAY...THE BIG WILD CARD SEEMS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS MIGHT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS
LIKELY AT LEAST DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STRATUS...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR STILL INSIST THAT
AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS COULD STILL DEVELOP AND
LINGER ACROSS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
AREAS...AM STARTING TO QUESTION THIS A BIT. AT LEAST FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL ASSUME THIS MIGHT STILL HAPPEN...AND THUS HAVE
RATHER HIGH SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TODAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN BANKING ON EXTENSIVE CLOUDS KEEPING HIGHS LOW-
MID 70S IN NEB ZONES AND MAINLY UPPER 70S IN KS. HOWEVER...IF ITS
ENDS UP SUNNIER THAN EXPECTED THEN SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WILL BE
NEEDED.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/TONIGHT PERIOD 00Z-12Z/7PM-7AM...CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP DETAILS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...BUT HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
NO MORE THAN 40-50 PERCENT...AND EVEN THESE VALUES HOLD OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...THE CWA WILL
COME UNDER INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
TO THE NORTH...THE CLOSED 500MB DAKOTAS LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO
FAR WESTERN MN BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WHILE AS IT DOES SO ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CWA GETS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER
JET...WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE A CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS TO TAKE AIM ON PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF
THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY
NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 5-10 MPH. BACKING UP AND FOCUSING ON
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
DRY...AND HAVE MAINLY FOCUSED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS KS ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING/PERSISTING
NEAR THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS MAY
BE A STRETCH...AND EVEN IF IT WOULD OCCUR AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
SEVERE STORM THREAT AFTER 7PM. THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT...HAVE
GRADUALLY BROUGHT BACK UP 20-50 POPS INTO NEB ZONES...ONLY
EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF
REALIZING THIS LATE-NIGHT RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...WITH THIS AREA MOST FAVORED TO REALIZE CONVECTION
MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND/OR PRECIP DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD WITHIN THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION. CERTAINLY NOT
SEEING THIS AS A WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS
THOUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...AT LEAST
SOUTHERN ZONES COULD STILL SEE ELEVATED CAPE OF 500+ J/KG...AND
THUS WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THIS LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT.
TEMP-WISE...CHANGED PREVIOUS LOWS VERY LITTLE...RANGING FROM NEAR
50 FAR NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WE BEGIN MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE AS THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...MORE LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE TO BE. MUCAPES LOOK VERY LOW TO NON-EXISTENT...WHICH LED ME
TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING LACK OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.
THE JET STREAK SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD GIVE US A DRY PERIOD
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD MAKE ITS WAY
EAST AND BE MAINTAINED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
THE AXIS POTENTIALLY OVER OUR CWA. THE JET SHOULD BE ON THE MODEST
SIDE...AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE WITHIN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTRODUCED
FROM A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AS WELL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE HELP FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET COULD INTENSIFY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT BY THIS TIME...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD WIND UP STALLING...AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION TOWARD NEXT WORK WEEK. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO MONDAY OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL IN
TURN...KEEP US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY
PASSING WAVES/PERTURBATIONS TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
OVERALL...A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES...IS ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST
TO THE WEST...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE WITH REGARD TO CEILING
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
LARGELY PUSHED EAST OF KGRI...AND ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY...THE PROBABILITY SEEMS LOW ENOUGH
TO OMIT AT THIS TIME. CEILING-WISE...EARLIER SUGGESTIONS OF
POTENTIAL IFR HAS NOT MATERIALIZED...AND AM EVEN STARTING TO
QUESTION IF MUCH MVFR WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SAGGING
THROUGH THE AREA. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL FORECASTS...HAVE MAINTAINED AN MVFR CEILING FROM 15Z-19Z AS
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THIS COULD STILL MATERIALIZE...BUT THIS IS BY
NO MEANS A SLAM DUNK. BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...HAVE FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING. LATE TONIGHT...HAVE INDICATED A
VICINITY SHOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF KGRI. BREEZES WILL SOON TRANSITION TO
NORTHERLY TODAY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH THIS GENERAL
DIRECTION EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY AVERAGING AT OR BELOW 12KT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TRYING TO REFINE
THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...AT LEAST SLIGHT
POPS ARE BEING ADVERTISED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA AT ANY GIVEN
TIME. ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
PROBABILITY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SECONDARY TO PRECIP...SKY COVER AND ITS
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL.
AT 0930Z...OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AF FEW FAIRLY
SUBTLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY-
BETTER DEFINED 1002 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CO/KS/OK
BORDER AREA. OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A 1025MB HIGH SAT OVER MT.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCREDIBLY WELL-DEFINED...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH CONNECTED THE LOW
PRESSURE AREAS AND EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS SEPARATED A PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZE TO
ITS NORTH/WEST FROM A PREDOMINANT EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE STILL
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICTED THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-
DEFINED CLOSED 500MB LOW SPINNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY
KICKING ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS WAVE IS WORKING
IN CONCERT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 35+ KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET
AND ITS ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT STORMS BEING A DUD IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALSO A
FEW CORES HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY PULSED UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY
SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL-WISE...RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE CWA
HAS STRUGGLED TO MEASURE ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER EXCEPTIONS EXIST...INCLUDING A LIKELY
CORRIDOR OF 1+ INCH THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN DAWSON COUNTY. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.
EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
GENERALLY EXPECTED THEME OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT OF
THE CWA FROM WEST-EAST IS OCCURRING...WITH MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 ALREADY PRECIP-FREE AT THIS HOUR. THIS HAS TURNED OUT
TO BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...DISORGANIZED NOCTURNAL SUB-SEVERE
MULTICELL EVENT...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE EVEN PENNY-NICKEL
SIZE HAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO ELEVATED CAPE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER AVERAGING UNDER 500 J/KG PER LATEST RAP AND
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC QPF FIELDS AND HIGHER-RES
REFLECTITY PROGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND FOCUSES MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRIED TO SHOW DIMINISHING POPS
WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WAS NOT ABOUT TO PULL COMPLETELY EXCEPT
IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA FROM
WEST-EAST...INCLUDING UP A THE 850MB LEVEL...AND THIS COULD
CERTAINLY SPARK THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SPOTTY CONVECTION...EVEN IF THERE IS A LULL FOR AWHILE...AND THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE 08Z HRRR. AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...STEADY NORTH BREEZES AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY INVADE FROM WEST-EAST...PROGRESSIVELY SHUNTING THE
FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY AXIS EAST WITH IT. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...BOTH THE NAM/RAP FOCUS THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 0-1KM MLCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG JUST BARELY
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA...BUT POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR EDGES...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LOWER INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY AFFECT OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND ALTHOUGH NOT
SEEMING LIKELY...IT JUST CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
EAST/SOUTH OF A FULLERTON-RED CLOUD-STOCKTON LINE GIVEN DECENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT...AND THUS WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY
SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT GENERALLY
LINES UP WITH THE SPC DAY 1 5 PERCENT SEVERE CONTOUR. AGAIN
THOUGH... AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA STANDS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STAYING STORM-FREE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD AND TEMP-WISE
TODAY...THE BIG WILD CARD SEEMS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS MIGHT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS
LIKELY AT LEAST DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STRATUS...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR STILL INSIST THAT
AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS COULD STILL DEVELOP AND
LINGER ACROSS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
AREAS...AM STARTING TO QUESTION THIS A BIT. AT LEAST FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL ASSUME THIS MIGHT STILL HAPPEN...AND THUS HAVE
RATHER HIGH SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TODAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN BANKING ON EXTENSIVE CLOUDS KEEPING HIGHS LOW-
MID 70S IN NEB ZONES AND MAINLY UPPER 70S IN KS. HOWEVER...IF ITS
ENDS UP SUNNIER THAN EXPECTED THEN SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WILL BE
NEEDED.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/TONIGHT PERIOD 00Z-12Z/7PM-7AM...CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP DETAILS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...BUT HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
NO MORE THAN 40-50 PERCENT...AND EVEN THESE VALUES HOLD OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...THE CWA WILL
COME UNDER INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
TO THE NORTH...THE CLOSED 500MB DAKOTAS LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO
FAR WESTERN MN BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WHILE AS IT DOES SO ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CWA GETS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER
JET...WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE A CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS TO TAKE AIM ON PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF
THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY
NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 5-10 MPH. BACKING UP AND FOCUSING ON
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
DRY...AND HAVE MAINLY FOCUSED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS KS ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING/PERSISTING
NEAR THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS MAY
BE A STRETCH...AND EVEN IF IT WOULD OCCUR AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
SEVERE STORM THREAT AFTER 7PM. THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT...HAVE
GRADUALLY BROUGHT BACK UP 20-50 POPS INTO NEB ZONES...ONLY
EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF
REALIZING THIS LATE-NIGHT RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...WITH THIS AREA MOST FAVORED TO REALIZE CONVECTION
MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND/OR PRECIP DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD WITHIN THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION. CERTAINLY NOT
SEEING THIS AS A WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS
THOUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...AT LEAST
SOUTHERN ZONES COULD STILL SEE ELEVATED CAPE OF 500+ J/KG...AND
THUS WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THIS LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT.
TEMP-WISE...CHANGED PREVIOUS LOWS VERY LITTLE...RANGING FROM NEAR
50 FAR NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WE BEGIN MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE AS THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...MORE LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE TO BE. MUCAPES LOOK VERY LOW TO NON-EXISTENT...WHICH LED ME
TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING LACK OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.
THE JET STREAK SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD GIVE US A DRY PERIOD
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD MAKE ITS WAY
EAST AND BE MAINTAINED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
THE AXIS POTENTIALLY OVER OUR CWA. THE JET SHOULD BE ON THE MODEST
SIDE...AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE WITHIN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTRODUCED
FROM A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AS WELL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE HELP FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET COULD INTENSIFY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT BY THIS TIME...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD WIND UP STALLING...AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION TOWARD NEXT WORK WEEK. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO MONDAY OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL IN
TURN...KEEP US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY
PASSING WAVES/PERTURBATIONS TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
OVERALL...A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES...IS ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST
TO THE WEST...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME THEME INTACT FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE...WITH
REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A 5-10 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY AS A
BATCH OF LOW STRATUS MATERIALIZES BEHIND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET
AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF LOW CEILINGS IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...AS
THIS COULD BE HIGHLY MODULATED/DELAYED BY EFFECTS OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEAKING OF THIS CONVECTION...HAVE TARGETED
THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME WITH A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM
MENTION...WHICH MIGHT BE CONVERTED TO A TEMPO/PREVAILING GROUP IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT KGRI.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY SMALL HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. WHILE ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A ROGUE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR EVEN LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT KGRI
ANYTIME AFTER 12Z TODAY...THE PROBABILITY SEEMS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT
FOR NOW...AND BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
IN PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AND A LIKELY RETURN TO VFR CEILING.
BREEZES WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHEASTERLY RIGHT AWAY EARLY THIS
MORNING...TO NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...AND WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
AROUND 12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNLESS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR REDUCES
VISIBILITY...NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BELOW VFR DUE
TO FOG...GIVEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT BREEZES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR JUST AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. THE BEST PROSPECT FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATING BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. 21Z RUC 500-300 MB
RH PROGS ARE CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS NICELY SO HAVE LEANED IN
THIS DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY. THIS WOULD OFFER A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT
IN MANY LOCALES...WITH SOME BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS MAY END UP HAVING A MODERATING EFFECT ON OUR
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...BUT PRIOR FORECAST HAS ALREADY LEANED
WARMER THAN CURRENT MET/MAV GUIDANCE SO WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
LATER THIS EVENING TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
IN THAT REGARD. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION... STILL MAINTAINING THE SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS
FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS (CRISP SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S). THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO.
LOOKING FOR LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.
GOES-13 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP ENDING AT 1830Z SHOWS THE
EWD MOTION OF MID-UPR CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SERN
ONTARIO...AND A MID- LEVEL BROKEN CLOUD LAYER WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT (WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S). THE MID-UPR CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF NOCTURNAL/RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION. THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z NAM A BIT QUICK TO BRING RAIN
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 09-12Z WEDNESDAY;
FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS SOLN OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM W-E DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (MID-LATE MORNING IN
NRN NY...EARLY AFTN IN VT) WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION INVOLVES RAINFALL AMTS AND HAVE
GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT...STAYING CLOSE TO 12Z ECMWF QPF.
AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC
VORT MAX OVER AR/MO STEMMING FROM LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING/S MCS
ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE TRACKS ENEWD AND IT/S IMPACT ON DOWNSTREAM
LOW DEVELOPMENT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW STRONG
AND HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF
COAST/TN RIVER VALLEY WILL BE. OUR THINKING IS THAT THE 12Z GFS IS A
BIT OVERBLOWN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK AND 850MB LOW FORMATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING. SUBSEQUENT THETA-E ADVECTION INTO NRN NY IS PARTICULARLY
STRONG. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE KEEPING RAINFALL AMTS LOWER THAN 12Z
GFS/NAM SOLNS AND MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND GUIDANCE FROM NE
RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST RAINFALL AMTS
RANGE FROM 0.50" TO 0.75" ACROSS VT...UP TO A MAX OF 1-1.25" ACROSS
NRN NY. THE STEADIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPE...THUS NO
LIGHTNING FCST AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT A STRATIFORM RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW
70S ACROSS VT...BUT ONLY MID 60S ACROSS NRN NY WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF RAINFALL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WON/T FALL SIGNIFICANTLY; LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
RICH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE WAVE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWN NWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NJ AREA
LATER FRIDAY...BUT FOLLOWING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLN SFC LOW
TRACK AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR REMAINS CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DOESN/T REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...CLOSED 850MB LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY NEWD FROM WRN NY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WILL GENERALLY BE PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAINFALL. THE 12Z NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
AND FURTHER INLAND WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK AND ASSOCIATED INFLUX OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND GENERALLY TRUST THE MASS
FIELDS IN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS MORE AT THIS TIME RANGE. WE/LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T FORESEE A HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD THREAT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY BASED ON THE FAVORED 12Z
ECMWF EVOLUTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FINAL WAVE AND MAIN WAVE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS SATURDAY MORNING
DECREASING TO LOW AND SLGT CHANCES ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL HTS
WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SO EXPECT BEST CHANCES
OF LINGERING RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY. ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING
OVER VT AS PRECIP THREAT MOVES W TO E.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM SWRN ONTARIO...BRINGING MORE RAIN
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY. ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH
GFS HAVING THE FASTER SFC TRACK...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ECMWF HAS THE SLOWER SFC TRACK...WITH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
BOTH MODELS SHOW CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL HAVE MAXES IN THE MID
60S-MID 70S AND MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CIGS LOWER AT MSS/SLK TO PRODUCE SOME
MVFR AFT 18Z THURS. SATL PIC SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS RACING
ACRS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH FAST FLW ALOFT AND
WEAK EMBEDDED VORTS. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC LOW PRES AND A
SFC BOUNDARY ACRS OUR TAF SITES WL CONT TO LOWER AND THICKEN THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING BY THURSDAY MORNING ACRS
OUR WESTERN TAF SITES. HAVE USED THE QUICKER RAP13 SOLUTION FOR
TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR SITES. GIVEN
TEH VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECT INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TO FALL
MAINLY AS VIRGA...WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS. SOUNDINGS SHOW RH
PROFILES INCREASING AFT 18Z THURSDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WL BECMG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WL BE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR TAF
SITES ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WL CREATE VFR
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SOME IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MPV. OTHERWISE...A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
OUR TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY BASED ON CURRENT FCST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IT
APPEARS A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY
AFTN THRU FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
AFTN/NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE A WET PERIOD THU-SAT...IT
APPEARS LONG-DURATION OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE STRATIFORM
RAINFALL WILL AMOUNT TO 1-1.5" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY - HIGHEST
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. WE/LL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS GIVEN ANTECEDENT WET SOIL
CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FORECAST RAINFALL AMTS AND LONG
DURATION OF EVENT DOESN/T APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR JUST AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. THE BEST PROSPECT FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATING BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. 21Z RUC 500-300 MB
RH PROGS ARE CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS NICELY SO HAVE LEANED IN
THIS DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY. THIS WOULD OFFER A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT
IN MANY LOCALES...WITH SOME BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS MAY END UP HAVING A MODERATING EFFECT ON OUR
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...BUT PRIOR FORECAST HAS ALREADY LEANED
WARMER THAN CURRENT MET/MAV GUIDANCE SO WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
LATER THIS EVENING TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
IN THAT REGARD. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION... STILL MAINTAINING THE SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS
FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS (CRISP SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S). THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO.
LOOKING FOR LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.
GOES-13 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP ENDING AT 1830Z SHOWS THE
EWD MOTION OF MID-UPR CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SERN
ONTARIO...AND A MID- LEVEL BROKEN CLOUD LAYER WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT (WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S). THE MID-UPR CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF NOCTURNAL/RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION. THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z NAM A BIT QUICK TO BRING RAIN
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 09-12Z WEDNESDAY;
FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS SOLN OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY
AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM W-E DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (MID-LATE MORNING IN
NRN NY...EARLY AFTN IN VT) WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION INVOLVES RAINFALL AMTS AND HAVE
GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT...STAYING CLOSE TO 12Z ECMWF QPF.
AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC
VORT MAX OVER AR/MO STEMMING FROM LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING/S MCS
ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE TRACKS ENEWD AND IT/S IMPACT ON DOWNSTREAM
LOW DEVELOPMENT INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW STRONG
AND HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF
COAST/TN RIVER VALLEY WILL BE. OUR THINKING IS THAT THE 12Z GFS IS A
BIT OVERBLOWN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK AND 850MB LOW FORMATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING. SUBSEQUENT THETA-E ADVECTION INTO NRN NY IS PARTICULARLY
STRONG. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE KEEPING RAINFALL AMTS LOWER THAN 12Z
GFS/NAM SOLNS AND MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND GUIDANCE FROM NE
RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST RAINFALL AMTS
RANGE FROM 0.50" TO 0.75" ACROSS VT...UP TO A MAX OF 1-1.25" ACROSS
NRN NY. THE STEADIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPE...THUS NO
LIGHTNING FCST AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT A STRATIFORM RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW
70S ACROSS VT...BUT ONLY MID 60S ACROSS NRN NY WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF RAINFALL. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WON/T FALL SIGNIFICANTLY; LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
RICH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE WAVE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWN NWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NJ AREA
LATER FRIDAY...BUT FOLLOWING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLN SFC LOW
TRACK AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR REMAINS CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DOESN/T REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...CLOSED 850MB LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY NEWD FROM WRN NY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WILL GENERALLY BE PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAINFALL. THE 12Z NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
AND FURTHER INLAND WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK AND ASSOCIATED INFLUX OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AND GENERALLY TRUST THE MASS
FIELDS IN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS MORE AT THIS TIME RANGE. WE/LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T FORESEE A HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD THREAT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY BASED ON THE FAVORED 12Z
ECMWF EVOLUTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FINAL WAVE AND MAIN WAVE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS SATURDAY MORNING
DECREASING TO LOW AND SLGT CHANCES ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL HTS
WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SO EXPECT BEST CHANCES
OF LINGERING RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY. ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING
OVER VT AS PRECIP THREAT MOVES W TO E.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM SWRN ONTARIO...BRINGING MORE RAIN
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY. ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH
GFS HAVING THE FASTER SFC TRACK...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ECMWF HAS THE SLOWER SFC TRACK...WITH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
BOTH MODELS SHOW CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL HAVE MAXES IN THE MID
60S-MID 70S AND MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN WITH
FEW- BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR PERSISTS THRU FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING CLOUD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH BRINGING THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...MAINLY OVER NRN NY...MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL START AROUND 10Z-13Z OVER THE SLV AND
ADKS...SPREADING EWD TO CPV BTWN 14Z-16Z THEN CENTRAL VT BTWN
15Z- 18Z. BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS...MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH PSBL MVFR IN SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BR VRB THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...DIMINISHING TO LGT OR
CALM OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY...GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER IN MOISTURE...BUT AT THE SFC...WIND DIRECTION WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE-E AT 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURS THRU 12Z SUNDAY...A WARM FRNT BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. VFR
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURS NIGHT AS CIGS LOWER
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SLK. WIDESPREAD
RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WL IMPACT MOST TAF SITES ON
FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG WL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
AT MPV/SLK.
12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...A SLOW IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL
OCCUR BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS PSBL MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY BASED ON CURRENT FCST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IT
APPEARS A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY
AFTN THRU FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
AFTN/NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE A WET PERIOD THU-SAT...IT
APPEARS LONG-DURATION OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE STRATIFORM
RAINFALL WILL AMOUNT TO 1-1.5" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY - HIGHEST
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. WE/LL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS GIVEN ANTECEDENT WET SOIL
CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FORECAST RAINFALL AMTS AND LONG
DURATION OF EVENT DOESN/T APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING IS PLAYING A SIGNIFICANT
ROLE IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER OUR
ZONES. RADAR RETURNS SHOW AN ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH
MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE GENERATION...MAINLY FAVORED OVER
OUR SC ZONES WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A STRONGER SURFACE
THERMAL AXIS RESIDE. LAZY STORM MOTION TO THE EAST COULD ALLOW
SOLID RAIN AMOUNTS OVER INTERIOR SC...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BEFORE GRADUALLY WANING INTO EARLY
EVENING.
THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL BRING MIN TEMPS INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE VERY
IMMEDIATE COAST. WET GROUNDS AND ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEVEL OR BUMP UP
THE TEMPERATURE CURVES...AND MINIMUMS COULD BE REALIZED PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF OUR
AREA AND THE WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE STARTING THURSDAY
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS MODEL ARE BOTH BRINGING IN
2+ INCH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL BRING THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH THE 12 UTC ECMWF BRINGING THE STORM UP THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COASTAL
AREAS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE IN MODELS SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED. THIS INVOLVES LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF YUCATAN. PLENTY OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS THAT IT IS POISED TO
TRAVEL UP THE EASTERN U.S. THE MODEL SPREAD IS MOST RELATED TO THE
SPEED AND LONGITUDE OF ITS PATH...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS
SHOWING LESS DISAGREEMENT WITHIN A FEW MB OF WHAT IS OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO BE A WELL DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION. THAT SAID IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE REGION IS POISED TO GET SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER A TRACK WEST OF THE COASTLINE WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE TORNADO
SPINUPS EAST OF THE CENTER. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OR ALL OF THE
LOCAL AREA WILL FALL UNDER THAT CATEGORY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
THE TOTAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY DECREASE CONSIDERABLY BUT STILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION IN FAIRLY
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY DRY OUT IN THE MID
LEVELS AS THE FLOW VEERS JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPING.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF ANYTHING TO WRING IT OUT
THOUGH SOME SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...LIKELY
IN THE FORM OF ISO TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG SEA BREEZE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAYS PRIOR. LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SAVE FOR PROBABLY CLOUD-INDUCED
TEMPERANCE OF FRIDAYS HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MODELS STILL SHOWING SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA. DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE AS BROAD AS THE HRRR MODEL
IS DEPICTING DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH VCSH AT FLO
AND MYR. AN MVFR CEILING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
VFR PREDOMINATELY. TONIGHT...STRATUS MOVES BACK INTO THE PICTURE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NAM BEING THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z...CERTAINLY BY 09Z WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY NOON...BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING
NUMEROUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WAVES TRANSITIONING FROM A SOUTHERLY TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. INCREASING E-ENE FLOW IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS TRANSITION AND AS THIS OCCURS...THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS
SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 6 SECONDS MAKING FOR SLIGHTLY STEEPER WAVES
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT FOR THE MOST PART 15 KT OF SUSTAINED WIND IS EXPECTED. A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS...FAVORED
OVER THE SC WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF BEGIN TO DEVELOP WINDS...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND BY THURSDAY EVENING WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
TRACK OF THE LOW... THE FORECAST WINDS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE. SO
IF THE LOW DOES DEVELOP AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THEN
WE CAN EXPECT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST RIGHT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS TO BE MOVING UP
THE COAST ALTHOUGH ITS SPEED TRACK AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ITS
STRENGTH UNKNOWN. BEST FCST AT THIS TIME BRINGS THE LOW UP THE
IMMED COAST ON FRIDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM FCST ZONES...MOSTLY. ANY JOG FURTHER TO
THE WEST WOULD BRING MUCH HIGHER WIND AND SEAS INTO CAPE FEAR
REGION AND POSSIBLY GRAND STRAND WATERS AND ALSO GTOWN WATERS TO A
LESSER DEGREE. GIVEN CURRENT TRACK IT DOES APPEAR THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERNMOST WATERS AT 6 TO 7FT WIND WAVES
APPEAR LIKELY. DOMINANT PD SHOULD BE AROUND 7 SECONDS. FLOW
LIGHTENS AND REMAINS OFFSHORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
BROAD TROUGHINESS ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN U.S. KEEPS A W TO
SW SFC FLOW LOCALLY. DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE WANING WHILE AVG
PERIOD MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO PERSISTENT FETCH
LENGTH/DURATION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALMOST
MADE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE
AREA...BUT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....
MODELS INDICATE THE MID LEVEL DE-AMPLIFYING S/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS PERIOD...WITH ITS MEAN TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FA BY TONIGHT. THIS MOVEMENT WILL PUSH THE SFC COLD FRONT
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING...AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY.
CAA SOMEWHAT LACKING AFTER FROPA...HOWEVER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY
ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS...ISOLATED SHRA OR EVEN A TSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IN FACT...A RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY AKA SEA BREEZE...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...FURTHER AIDING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. OF
NOTE...THE HOURLY NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 500 MB AND 700 MB THAT WILL NEGATE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL...HAVE INDICATED ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR POST COLD FRONTAL
POPS...AND MAINLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. FOR TONIGHT...LOOKING AT
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN BY THE MODELS INDICATE A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE OR
WEAK WEDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS...STAYED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF MODEL MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP...ALONG WITH
THE STRONG INSOLATION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ON WED BUT KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
LOW. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW CLIMO AS WELL AS ADVECT ANY OFFSHORE
PRECIP TO THE COAST. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER SC WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
HIGHEST. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED FORCING/HEATING
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP LOW TOPPED AND LIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
TO SLIGHT CHC POP.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FOR THU AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF GOMEX LOW. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLIMB OVER 2 INCHES THU AND THU NIGHT AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE ARRIVES. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE TROUGH PUSHES
INLAND DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES...HELPING EXPAND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC FOR PM AND
CARRY LIKELY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP WARM LAYER...FREEZING LEVEL
IS BETWEEN 14K AND 15K FT...AND STORM MOTION UNDER 10 KT POINT TO A
FLOODING AS THE MAIN THREAT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.
NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WED.
HIGHS END UP NEAR CLIMO THU WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION BATTLING CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW
BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL
TRACK DIFFERENCES WHICH COULD HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ILM
AREA. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL MOVE THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA
AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLUTION RANGE FROM LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
TO LOW PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA. WHILE BOTH TRACKS SUGGEST
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON FRI. THE BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. AN INLAND TRACK WOULD PUT THE ILM FORECAST AREA IN THE
FAVORED RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT. EVENT THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG WHEN IT REACHES THE AREA IT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPIN UP WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING POINTS TO A
FRI-FRI EVENING EVENT.
MID LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 5H TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS KEEPS GOMEX OPEN
AND PREVENTS REGION FROM DRYING OUT. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK THEY
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...SEA BREEZE AND WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT ENHANCING
FEATURES WILL PROBABLY KEEP COVERAGE NEAR CLIMO...30-40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI IS
EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST DAY THOUGH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
SAT-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MODELS STILL SHOWING SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA. DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE AS BROAD AS THE HRRR MODEL
IS DEPICTING DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH VCSH AT FLO
AND MYR. AN MVFR CEILING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
VFR PREDOMINATELY. TONIGHT...STRATUS MOVES BACK INTO THE PICTURE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NAM BEING THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z...CERTAINLY BY 09Z WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY NOON...BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING
NUMEROUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY
COVERING THE MARINE WATERS. SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE REGION. SEAS ARE
RUNNING TO 2 TO 4 FEET AND THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS
BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET WITH A FEW 5 FOOT WAVES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM
TUESDAY...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AROUND 15 KT WED INTO THU WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THU AS WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INTO FRI. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
MARGINALLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WIND FIELD DURING FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL
DEPEND ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING BUT LESS SO WITH
RESPECT TO TRACK AND STRENGTH. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SOLUTIONS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WPC FORECAST. THIS TRACKS THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ONLY THE CMC DEPICTS MORE THAN MARGINAL
STRENGTHENING SO WILL FAVOR WEAKER SOLUTIONS. FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES
WESTERLY AS THE LOW PASSES LATE FRI BUT THEN BACKS TO SOUTHWEST
SAT/SAT NIGHT AS BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK IN. PROLONGED AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FETCH FRI IN INTO SAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6
FT BY FRI EVENING. SEAS MAY DROP BACK TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHES HIGHEST SEAS
BEYOND 20 NM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS/8/DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III/8
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
AS PREVIOUSLY STATED THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS EVENING IS FOG.
FOR THIS UPDATE AREAS OF WIDESPREAD FOG WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN
A HIGHLIGHTED REGION BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN ALONG THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE FOG
THIS EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN
THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ERODE...WINDS DIE DOWN OR GO CALM...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
STARTS IN ERNEST...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SHOULD PULL EVEN
LATER THIS EVENING. THE 00 UTC NAM AND 00 UTC RAP...ALONG WITH THE
00 UTC HRRR SHOW THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND FOG BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 07 UTC AND 09
UTC.
UPDATED THE REST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALL UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS EVENING UPDATE. THE MAIN
PROBLEM OF THE EVENING WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS IN FAVOR FOR FOG INCLUDE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN...NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
CONDITIONS IN FAVOR OF NO FOG DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE...THICK CLOUD
DECK OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING...DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FOG FORECAST. WILL
MONITOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE
IF CHANGES NEED TO BE MADE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE
SMALL UPDATES TO SKY CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO REFLECT THE SLOWER
CLEARING AND THICKER COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. UPDATED ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALL UPDATED ITEMS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
MORE THAN AMPLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR UP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. WITH THESE BASIC INGREDIENTS
FOR FOG...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND WILL LET
LATER FORECASTS FURTHER EVALUATE AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME.
OVERLAND FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF WARD COUNTY...AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...PIERCE...ROLETTE...BURKE...AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD ADVISORY. AS WATER
RECEDES INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS AND ROADS ARE SIGNED MAY BE ABLE TO
TRANSITION FROM AREA FLOODING TO JUST RIVER POINT FLOODING EITHER
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...HAVE EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD
ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT PROPAGATING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 400-800 J/KG SUGGEST A LIMIT
ON THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT...WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING MORE OF A
CONCERN WITH SATURATED SOILS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.25 INCHES. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
OCCLUDE WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WILL BE RECEIVED IN LIGHT OF CONTINUING CONVECTION FROM
OVERNIGHT TO DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION INCREASE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AS IT PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. THEREAFTER A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE CONUS...SUPPORTING
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH RIDGE RUNNING IMPULSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CLOUDINESS AT 00 UTC THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. BROUGHT A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO ALL TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 18 UTC NAM/GFS FORECAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 12 UTC THURSDAY
AND WITH RECENT WET CONDITIONS BROUGHT A MENTION OF SCATTERED IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 12 UTC AT ALL TAF SITES. BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
NOT CERTAIN ABOUT IFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE 06 UTC TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
OVERLAND FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF WARD COUNTY...AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...PIERCE...ROLETTE...BURKE...AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD ADVISORY. AS WATER
RECEDES INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS AND ROADS ARE SIGNED MAY BE ABLE TO
TRANSITION FROM AREA FLOODING TO JUST RIVER POINT FLOODING EITHER
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...HAVE EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD
ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL UTILIZE THE LATEST HRRR/RAP FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
20 UTC SURFACE LOW IS SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN WITH ITS WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM NEAR GWINNER
TO BROOKINGS SD. THE STACKED SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ESSENTIALLY
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 06 UTC...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THEREAFTER. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...BUT NARROW
CLEAR SLOT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAMESTOWN TO JUST WEST OF
WAHPETON. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL BE PRONE TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS GREATER LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY/
HELICITY IS REALIZED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED.
TO THE NORTH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM WEST OF MINOT TO NEAR LAKOTA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...
BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. WITH WET/SATURATED
SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST ND...CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE 1 TO 2
INCHES ACCUMULATION FROM DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3 TO 4 PLUS INCHES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15
UTC. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF COOL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING BY
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE ALL AGREEABLE WITH
THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE THE USUAL SPEED AND
PLACEMENT ISSUES. CONTINUED THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS. IT IS
LOOKING DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER OR COOLER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND UPPER WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS AT KFAR AND ROUNDING INTO KDVL.
EXPECT THIS BAND OF LOWER CIGS TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO KGFK
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS MAY GRADUALLY LOWER IN IFR CATEGORY BY
THIS EVENING...BASICALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME AREA...AND
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO KBJI TONIGHT. KFAR MAY SCATTER FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY TODAY THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ALREADY WET
SOILS DUE TO RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...OVERLAND FLOODING
AND FLOODING NEAR AREA RIVERS ARE A CONCERN.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE.
MOST TRIBUTARIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RED RIVER BASIN
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE TWO RIVERS RIVER
AT HALLOCK EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW OR
THURSDAY. CONTINUED INFLOW INTO THE RED IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL
RISES BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVER STAGES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026>030-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE SURFACE LOW/WARM
FRONT HAVE ESSENTIALLY REMAINED STATIONARY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS A NARROW FINGER OF CLEARING MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST ND FROM SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN TO NEAR GWINNER. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU FORMATION IN THIS CLEAR
SLOT. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THIS AREA FROM
500 TO 1000 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE WHERE OUR ATTENTION WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE INITIATION.
FARTHER NORTH...RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. DID ADJUST HIGHEST POPS NORTHWARD A BIT BASED ON 12 UTC
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT STILL EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IN THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
TWO MAIN CONCERNS TODAY. NUMBER ONE...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
NUMBER TWO...SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
15 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS CENTER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST ND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR BISMARCK WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JAMESTOWN TO WHEATON MN TO LITCHFIELD MN. LATEST RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS
MOVE THE SURFACE LOW AT A SNAIL/S PACE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...NEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLY BY 06 UTC TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF RAIN FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. WITHIN THIS BROADER
AREA...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 4
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS AND WET SOILS...WILL ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FROM 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO FARGO TO FERGUS
FALLS...CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THIS AREA...SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 0 TO 1 KM CAPE UP TO 1200 J/KG AND VGP VALUES NEAR 0.2. WILL
NEED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO REALIZE FULL INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL...BUT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. PRIME TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 TO 6 PM AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
CAREFULLY.
UPDATED POPS/WX/SKY/TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE THINKING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
500 MB UPPER LOW APPROACHING BISMARCK ATTM WITH AREA OF RAIN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF UPPER LOW RUGBY BACK THROUGH MINOT AND WILLISTON.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AREA OF SHOWERS MORE ASSOC WITH 850
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO MINNESOTA. DRY SLOT WORKING INTO
SOUTHEAST-ECNTRL ND ATTM AND LOOKING AT LATEST HRRR WOULD THINK A
DRY PD IN PLACE INTO EARLY AFTN IN REGION FROM COOPERSTOWN TO
HILLSBORO SOUTHWARD TO SD BORDER. OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY IN THIS REGION IS TOO LOW TO DO SO BUT WILL
DOWNPLAY TO 20S. THEN STILL LOOKING INTERESTING MID TO LATE AFTN
WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND PSBL TORNADO THREAT IN NARROW ZONE
JUST EAST OF UPPER LOW AND JUST NORTH AND EAST OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO RUN NR A JAMESTOWN TO WAHPETON LINE.
HIGHEST VGP (0.24) OVER CASS COUNTY ND. COORD WITH ABR/BIS AND
HIGHLIGHTED THREAT IN WX STORY AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST AND BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK
AT 00Z. SFC LOW CIRCULATION WITH UPPER LOW TO BE JUST EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT 21Z. THRU MOST OF THE DAY....DO EXPECT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF UPR LOW AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS
THIS REGION OF OUR FCST AREA (MAINLY IN ZONE FROM ADA-HILLSBORO-
GRAND FORKS BACK THRU DEVILS LAKE).
OF BIG INTEREST IS DRY SLOT JUST EAST OF UPR LOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING LIKELY TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SE ND TODAY. ENOUGH SFC
HEATING INTO THE MID 60S SEEMS PSBL JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY-LISBON
AREA SOUTHWARD WITH SOME MID 50 DEW PTS. 06Z HRRR 3 KM MODEL
INDICATES WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY FROM NR JAMESTOWN TO LISBON TO
WAHPETON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO SOUTH DAKTOA AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF BOUNDARY. NAM12 ALSO SHOWS SOME HEALTHY VGP VALUES
(MORE THAN 0.2) ON NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY FROM RICHLAND COUNTY ND
TO GRIGGS CO ND. PER SWODY1 SOME THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES IN THIS NARROW ZONE AS HAPPENED IN SW ND MON AFTN.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ESE INTO CNTRL MN BY 12Z WED WITH FOCUS OF
RAIN DVL-GFK-PKD REGION...WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL STILL OF OVER AN
INCH SEEMS LIKELY LOCALLY 2 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT ENOUGH
FOR A FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AS RAINFALL RATES DONT
APPEAR TOO GREAT AND AREA UNDER THE GUN NOT QUITE AS WET AS
FARTHER NORTH.
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT WEDNESDAY SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVING DRY
CONDITIONS.
VARIOUS MODELS SEEM IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS FOR THE FRI-MON PERIOD. GEM/ECMWF/GFS/DGEX ALL SHOW A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGING.
ECMWF PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON SW OVER MANITOBA WITH -SHRA OVER
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AT 18Z FRIDAY. SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE
AND HAVE CUT POPS.
FOR SATURDAY RETURN MOISTURE AND A MORE ROBUST WAVE IN W/NW FLOW
SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS WEST TO EAST. WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN TO
THE EAST I LIKE THE IDEA OF A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
INCREASING POPS. CYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND SOME
CAPE ARGUE FOR TSRA.
FOR SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS JUNE THINK THE SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST. GFS/ECMWF SHOW COOLING ALOFT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AT LEAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE WITH THE FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LIKELY ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS AT KFAR AND ROUNDING INTO KDVL.
EXPECT THIS BAND OF LOWER CIGS TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO KGFK
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS MAY GRADUALLY LOWER IN IFR CATEGORY BY
THIS EVENING...BASICALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME AREA...AND
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO KBJI TONIGHT. KFAR MAY SCATTER FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY TODAY THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ALREADY WET
SOILS DUE TO RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...OVERLAND FLOODING
AND FLOODING NEAR AREA RIVERS ARE A CONCERN.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE.
MOST TRIBUTARIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RED RIVER BASIN
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE TWO RIVERS RIVER
AT HALLOCK EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW OR
THURSDAY. CONTINUED INFLOW INTO THE RED IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL
RISES BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVER STAGES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026>030-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1032 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
TWO MAIN CONCERNS TODAY. NUMBER ONE...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
NUMBER TWO...SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
15 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS CENTER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST ND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR BISMARCK WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JAMESTOWN TO WHEATON MN TO LITCHFIELD MN. LATEST RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS
MOVE THE SURFACE LOW AT A SNAIL/S PACE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...NEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLY BY 06 UTC TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF RAIN FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. WITHIN THIS BROADER
AREA...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 4
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS AND WET SOILS...WILL ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FROM 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO FARGO TO FERGUS
FALLS...CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THIS AREA...SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 0 TO 1 KM CAPE UP TO 1200 J/KG AND VGP VALUES NEAR 0.2. WILL
NEED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO REALIZE FULL INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL...BUT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. PRIME TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 TO 6 PM AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
CAREFULLY.
UPDATED POPS/WX/SKY/TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE THINKING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
500 MB UPPER LOW APPROACHING BISMARCK ATTM WITH AREA OF RAIN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF UPPER LOW RUGBY BACK THROUGH MINOT AND WILLISTON.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AREA OF SHOWERS MORE ASSOC WITH 850
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO MINNESOTA. DRY SLOT WORKING INTO
SOUTHEAST-ECNTRL ND ATTM AND LOOKING AT LATEST HRRR WOULD THINK A
DRY PD IN PLACE INTO EARLY AFTN IN REGION FROM COOPERSTOWN TO
HILLSBORO SOUTHWARD TO SD BORDER. OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY IN THIS REGION IS TOO LOW TO DO SO BUT WILL
DOWNPLAY TO 20S. THEN STILL LOOKING INTERESTING MID TO LATE AFTN
WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND PSBL TORNADO THREAT IN NARROW ZONE
JUST EAST OF UPPER LOW AND JUST NORTH AND EAST OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO RUN NR A JAMESTOWN TO WAHPETON LINE.
HIGHEST VGP (0.24) OVER CASS COUNTY ND. COORD WITH ABR/BIS AND
HIGHLIGHTED THREAT IN WX STORY AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST AND BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK
AT 00Z. SFC LOW CIRCULATION WITH UPPER LOW TO BE JUST EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT 21Z. THRU MOST OF THE DAY....DO EXPECT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF UPR LOW AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS
THIS REGION OF OUR FCST AREA (MAINLY IN ZONE FROM ADA-HILLSBORO-
GRAND FORKS BACK THRU DEVILS LAKE).
OF BIG INTEREST IS DRY SLOT JUST EAST OF UPR LOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING LIKELY TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SE ND TODAY. ENOUGH SFC
HEATING INTO THE MID 60S SEEMS PSBL JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY-LISBON
AREA SOUTHWARD WITH SOME MID 50 DEW PTS. 06Z HRRR 3 KM MODEL
INDICATES WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY FROM NR JAMESTOWN TO LISBON TO
WAHPETON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO SOUTH DAKTOA AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF BOUNDARY. NAM12 ALSO SHOWS SOME HEALTHY VGP VALUES
(MORE THAN 0.2) ON NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY FROM RICHLAND COUNTY ND
TO GRIGGS CO ND. PER SWODY1 SOME THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES IN THIS NARROW ZONE AS HAPPENED IN SW ND MON AFTN.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ESE INTO CNTRL MN BY 12Z WED WITH FOCUS OF
RAIN DVL-GFK-PKD REGION...WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL STILL OF OVER AN
INCH SEEMS LIKELY LOCALLY 2 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT ENOUGH
FOR A FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AS RAINFALL RATES DONT
APPEAR TOO GREAT AND AREA UNDER THE GUN NOT QUITE AS WET AS
FARTHER NORTH.
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT WEDNESDAY SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVING DRY
CONDITIONS.
VARIOUS MODELS SEEM IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS FOR THE FRI-MON PERIOD. GEM/ECMWF/GFS/DGEX ALL SHOW A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGING.
ECMWF PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON SW OVER MANITOBA WITH -SHRA OVER
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AT 18Z FRIDAY. SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE
AND HAVE CUT POPS.
FOR SATURDAY RETURN MOISTURE AND A MORE ROBUST WAVE IN W/NW FLOW
SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS WEST TO EAST. WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN TO
THE EAST I LIKE THE IDEA OF A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
INCREASING POPS. CYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND SOME
CAPE ARGUE FOR TSRA.
FOR SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS JUNE THINK THE SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST. GFS/ECMWF SHOW COOLING ALOFT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AT LEAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE WITH THE FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LIKELY ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ERN ND/NW MN MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AREA OF MVFR
CIGS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF UPR LOW LIKELY TO MOVE INTO DVL REGION
LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY TODAY THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS AT KDVL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AFTER A BRIEF STUTTER MONDAY...THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON
CONTINUES A STEADY RECESSION AND IS APPROACHING FS. THE CURRENT
TRENDS LINE UP NICELY WITH THE FORECAST THAT CALLS FOR THE RIVER
TO GO BLO FS BY MID DAY TODAY.
THE TWO RIVER RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS SHOWN A TINY BUMP OVERNIGHT WITH
RASH IN THE AREA...BUT THE CURRENT TREND IS BELOW THE FORECAST. THE
TWO RIVERS AT HALLOCK IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FS LATER TODAY AS
WELL.
OTHERWISE OSLO JUST ABOVE FIS AND SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW FIS LATE
TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. DRAYTON AND PEMBINA BOTH RISING SLOWLY ALONG THE
FORECAST CURVES AND SHOULD STAY BETWEEN FIS AND FS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BARRING AN UNFORESEEN EXCESSIVE RAIN...LOCAL CONTRIBUTION FROM
RAIN TONIGHT WILL CAUSE ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACES.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. AS RIVER LEVELS FALL
DRAINAGE SHOULD INCREASE ALLOWING THE WATERS TO GET OFF THE LAND.
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE THROUGH GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS. ISOLATED
1.0 TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE RAINS MAY CAUSE
MINOR RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS...AND SLOW THE RECESSION ON
RIVERS THAT ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026>030-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
500 MB UPPER LOW APPROACHING BISMARCK ATTM WITH AREA OF RAIN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF UPPER LOW RUGBY BACK THROUGH MINOT AND WILLISTON.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AREA OF SHOWERS MORE ASSOC WITH 850
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO MINNESOTA. DRY SLOT WORKING INTO
SOUTHEAST-ECNTRL ND ATTM AND LOOKING AT LATEST HRRR WOULD THINK A
DRY PD IN PLACE INTO EARLY AFTN IN REGION FROM COOPERSTOWN TO
HILLSBORO SOUTHWARD TO SD BORDER. OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY IN THIS REGION IS TOO LOW TO DO SO BUT WILL
DOWNPLAY TO 20S. THEN STILL LOOKING INTERESTING MID TO LATE AFTN
WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND PSBL TORNADO THREAT IN NARROW ZONE
JUST EAST OF UPPER LOW AND JUST NORTH AND EAST OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO RUN NR A JAMESTOWN TO WAHPETON LINE.
HIGHEST VGP (0.24) OVER CASS COUNTY ND. COORD WITH ABR/BIS AND
HIGHLIGHTED THREAT IN WX STORY AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST AND BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK
AT 00Z. SFC LOW CIRCULATION WITH UPPER LOW TO BE JUST EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT 21Z. THRU MOST OF THE DAY....DO EXPECT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF UPR LOW AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS
THIS REGION OF OUR FCST AREA (MAINLY IN ZONE FROM ADA-HILLSBORO-
GRAND FORKS BACK THRU DEVILS LAKE).
OF BIG INTEREST IS DRY SLOT JUST EAST OF UPR LOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING LIKELY TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SE ND TODAY. ENOUGH SFC
HEATING INTO THE MID 60S SEEMS PSBL JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY-LISBON
AREA SOUTHWARD WITH SOME MID 50 DEW PTS. 06Z HRRR 3 KM MODEL
INDICATES WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY FROM NR JAMESTOWN TO LISBON TO
WAHPETON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO SOUTH DAKTOA AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF BOUNDARY. NAM12 ALSO SHOWS SOME HEALTHY VGP VALUES
(MORE THAN 0.2) ON NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY FROM RICHLAND COUNTY ND
TO GRIGGS CO ND. PER SWODY1 SOME THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES IN THIS NARROW ZONE AS HAPPENED IN SW ND MON AFTN.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ESE INTO CNTRL MN BY 12Z WED WITH FOCUS OF
RAIN DVL-GFK-PKD REGION...WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL STILL OF OVER AN
INCH SEEMS LIKELY LOCALLY 2 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT ENOUGH
FOR A FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AS RAINFALL RATES DONT
APPEAR TOO GREAT AND AREA UNDER THE GUN NOT QUITE AS WET AS
FARTHER NORTH.
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT WEDNESDAY SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVING DRY
CONDITIONS.
VARIOUS MODELS SEEM IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS FOR THE FRI-MON PERIOD. GEM/ECMWF/GFS/DGEX ALL SHOW A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGING.
ECMWF PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON SW OVER MANITOBA WITH -SHRA OVER
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AT 18Z FRIDAY. SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE
AND HAVE CUT POPS.
FOR SATURDAY RETURN MOISTURE AND A MORE ROBUST WAVE IN W/NW FLOW
SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS WEST TO EAST. WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN TO
THE EAST I LIKE THE IDEA OF A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
INCREASING POPS. CYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND SOME
CAPE ARGUE FOR TSRA.
FOR SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS JUNE THINK THE SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST. GFS/ECMWF SHOW COOLING ALOFT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AT LEAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE WITH THE FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LIKELY ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ERN ND/NW MN MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AREA OF MVFR
CIGS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF UPR LOW LIKELY TO MOVE INTO DVL REGION
LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY TODAY THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS AT KDVL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AFTER A BRIEF STUTTER MONDAY...THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON
CONTINUES A STEADY RECESSION AND IS APPROACHING FS. THE CURRENT
TRENDS LINE UP NICELY WITH THE FORECAST THAT CALLS FOR THE RIVER
TO GO BLO FS BY MID DAY TODAY.
THE TWO RIVER RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS SHOWN A TINY BUMP OVERNIGHT WITH
RASH IN THE AREA...BUT THE CURRENT TREND IS BELOW THE FORECAST. THE
TWO RIVERS AT HALLOCK IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FS LATER TODAY AS
WELL.
OTHERWISE OSLO JUST ABOVE FIS AND SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW FIS LATE
TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. DRAYTON AND PEMBINA BOTH RISING SLOWLY ALONG THE
FORECAST CURVES AND SHOULD STAY BETWEEN FIS AND FS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BARRING AN UNFORESEEN EXCESSIVE RAIN...LOCAL CONTRIBUTION FROM
RAIN TONIGHT WILL CAUSE ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACES.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. AS RIVER LEVELS FALL
DRAINAGE SHOULD INCREASE ALLOWING THE WATERS TO GET OFF THE LAND.
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE THROUGH GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS. ISOLATED
1.0 TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE RAINS MAY CAUSE
MINOR RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS...AND SLOW THE RECESSION ON
RIVERS THAT ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST AND BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK
AT 00Z. SFC LOW CIRCULATION WITH UPPER LOW TO BE JUST EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT 21Z. THRU MOST OF THE DAY....DO EXPECT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF UPR LOW AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS
THIS REGION OF OUR FCST AREA (MAINLY IN ZONE FROM ADA-HILLSBORO-
GRAND FORKS BACK THRU DEVILS LAKE).
OF BIG INTEREST IS DRY SLOT JUST EAST OF UPR LOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING LIKELY TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SE ND TODAY. ENOUGH SFC
HEATING INTO THE MID 60S SEEMS PSBL JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY-LISBON
AREA SOUTHWARD WITH SOME MID 50 DEW PTS. 06Z HRRR 3 KM MODEL
INDICATES WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY FROM NR JAMESTOWN TO LISBON TO
WAHPETON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO SOUTH DAKTOA AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF BOUNDARY. NAM12 ALSO SHOWS SOME HEALTHY VGP VALUES
(MORE THAN 0.2) ON NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY FROM RICHLAND COUNTY ND
TO GRIGGS CO ND. PER SWODY1 SOME THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES IN THIS NARROW ZONE AS HAPPENED IN SW ND MON AFTN.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ESE INTO CNTRL MN BY 12Z WED WITH FOCUS OF
RAIN DVL-GFK-PKD REGION...WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL STILL OF OVER AN
INCH SEEMS LIKELY LOCALLY 2 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT ENOUGH
FOR A FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AS RAINFALL RATES DONT
APPEAR TOO GREAT AND AREA UNDER THE GUN NOT QUITE AS WET AS
FARTHER NORTH.
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT WEDNESDAY SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVING DRY
CONDITIONS.
VARIOUS MODELS SEEM IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS FOR THE FRI-MON PERIOD. GEM/ECMWF/GFS/DGEX ALL SHOW A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGING.
ECMWF PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON SW OVER MANITOBA WITH -SHRA OVER
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AT 18Z FRIDAY. SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE
AND HAVE CUT POPS.
FOR SATURDAY RETURN MOISTURE AND A MORE ROBUST WAVE IN W/NW FLOW
SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS WEST TO EAST. WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN TO
THE EAST I LIKE THE IDEA OF A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
INCREASING POPS. CYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND SOME
CAPE ARGUE FOR TSRA.
FOR SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS JUNE THINK THE SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST. GFS/ECMWF SHOW COOLING ALOFT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AT LEAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE WITH THE FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LIKELY ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
VFR CIGS AND VSBY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS RA AND ISOLD T CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NE ACROSS FA. DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT
NW EXTENT OF PCPN. ISOLD T STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN FA WITH
FAR TAF ON NORTHERN FRINGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AFTER A BRIEF STUTTER MONDAY...THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON
CONTINUES A STEADY RECESSION AND IS APPROACHING FS. THE CURRENT
TRENDS LINE UP NICELY WITH THE FORECAST THAT CALLS FOR THE RIVER
TO GO BLO FS BY MID DAY TODAY.
THE TWO RIVER RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS SHOWN A TINY BUMP OVERNIGHT WITH
RASH IN THE AREA...BUT THE CURRENT TREND IS BELOW THE FORECAST. THE
TWO RIVERS AT HALLOCK IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FS LATER TODAY AS
WELL.
OTHERWISE OSLO JUST ABOVE FIS AND SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW FIS LATE
TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. DRAYTON AND PEMBINA BOTH RISING SLOWLY ALONG THE
FORECAST CURVES AND SHOULD STAY BETWEEN FIS AND FS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BARRING AN UNFORESEEN EXCESSIVE RAIN...LOCAL CONTRIBUTION FROM
RAIN TONIGHT WILL CAUSE ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACES.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. AS RIVER LEVELS FALL
DRAINAGE SHOULD INCREASE ALLOWING THE WATERS TO GET OFF THE LAND.
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE THROUGH GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS. ISOLATED
1.0 TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE RAINS MAY CAUSE
MINOR RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS...AND SLOW THE RECESSION ON
RIVERS THAT ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
...UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. SOME SPOTTY
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD MORNING...BUT MAY
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR KBVO/KTUL/KRVS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS IT INTERACTS WITH A 30-50KT LLJ. LATEST INDICATIONS
FROM THE LOCAL MODEL AND HRRR HAS THE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO
AN MCS...DIVING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH THE EASTERN EDGE ENTERING
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z. GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE
STRONGER PORTION OF THE LLJ SHOULD KEEP THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE
POTENTIAL DECREASING AS THE MCS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MCS
SHOULD MOSTLY AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SINCE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE CONVECTION IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA
AND TO TWEAK TEMPS BASED ON CLOUD COVER. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR MORE WARMER TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS FROM
THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 85 68 81 / 20 30 50 60
FSM 62 85 67 84 / 10 10 10 40
MLC 65 86 69 85 / 10 20 20 40
BVO 66 83 66 79 / 20 30 50 60
FYV 58 81 62 80 / 10 10 20 50
BYV 58 80 62 80 / 10 10 20 50
MKO 64 85 67 83 / 10 20 30 50
MIO 63 83 66 78 / 10 30 40 60
F10 65 85 68 83 / 20 30 30 50
HHW 64 87 69 88 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
439 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE WEEK...AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO OUR AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX RIGHT
OVER THE CWFA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ALL
SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE BEHIND THIS VORT...WHICH MAY EXPLAIN
WHY SUCH A HEALTHY CU FIELD ON VIS SAT IS NOT DEVELOPING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE LAPS CAPE IN THE NC MTNS AND NW PIEDMONT ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...WHILE THE UPSTATE AND NE GA HAVE
1000 J/KG TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ALONG SE BORDER OF CWFA. THE CAE RADAR
SHOWS A NWWD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BNDRY APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDLANDS. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS AGREE ON A FEW SHWRS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OUTFLOW...GENERALLY AFT SUNSET. SO I HAVE TRIMMED POP BACK
TO JUST SLGT CHC...FAVORING THE NC MTNS AND THE LWR PIEDMONT CLOSE
TO THE OUTFLOW BNDRY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET EVENING. THE REST
OF THE GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK.
AT 230 PM EDT...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE REMAINS OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
ENE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO ENE...INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT PROFILES ARE NOT CAPPED ON WEDNESDAY.
VERY LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK MID
LEVEL CAP. ALTHOUGH FLOW BECOMES MORE ORTHOGONAL TO ELEVATED TERRAIN
WITH TIME...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LOWERS THE CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHETHER THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF
THE FRONT DRIFTING NORTH...OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE SURGING INTO OUR
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
REMAINS IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED
ON WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING UPSLOPE FLOW AND NO CAP ALOFT SUPPORT A
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL..WITH MAXIMUMS
WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS COVER INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE OHIO
AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WED NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS WRN NC
WED EVENING. THE WAVE ACTUALLY HAS CONVECTIVE ORIGINS AND IT SHOWS
UP WELL ON THE 12 UTC GFS INITIALIZATION AND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE ERN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST WITH A VERY WEAK LOOKING WEDGE SIGNATURE OVER THE
REGION...THOUGH THIS COULD BE MORE THE RESULT OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROUGH. AT ANY RATE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE WEAK OVER THE
REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVER THE SOUTH...AND 10 TO 15
KTS OVER WRN NC. BUT PW/S WILL INCREASE TO 150-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. THIS KIND OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND I
HAVE POPS ACTUALLY INCREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATER AT
NIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ANY CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER
OFF. CONSIDERING THE HIGH PW/S THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
THE GFS TAKES ANOTHER MCV ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL LOW SLOWLY
ORGANIZING NEAR THE NRN YUCATAN SHOULD BEGIN MOVING UP...OR AT LEAST
TOWARED...THE SE COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
TRACKING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MUCH TOO
FAR TO THE WEST...EXHIBITING IT/S USUAL PROBLEMS WITH TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IF IT WERE TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-LANDS WHILE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING A SWATH OF HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WRN CAROLINAS. IT
APPEARS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME THAT WE WILL BE CONTENDING
MORE WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD STILL BRING PLENTY
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AND JUST ADD ANOTHER WRINKLE...IF THE GULF LOW WERE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED...SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE LOW COULD ACTUALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE REGION STARTING LATER ON THU.
BY FRIDAY THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM A WAYS TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH
THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF IS ALMOST 18 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY OUR MOST
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS FROM THE LOW WOULDN/T BE UNTIL FRIDAY. I
ORIGINALLY WROTE THIS SAYING THAT WE WOULD FACE A SEVERE THREAT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF...THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FRIDAY
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS FAIRLY UNSETTLED.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW TRACK...BRINGING IT FARTHER EAST AND
MINIMIZING EFFECTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING DURING THE SAME PERIOD...PRECIPITATION LOOKS
FAIRLY LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY. POPS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND A SECONDARY FRONT
PASSES ON SUNDAY. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO BE CAPPED
FAIRLY WELL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND AND FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TO THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CIGS...WHICH COULD
OCCUR AT KCLT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A LOW VFR CIG IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FREQUENT BREAKS. LIGHT ENE
WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY VEER TO ESE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW END
MVFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND SHOWS SOME IFR CIGS AT
SURROUNDING SITES. BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS LOW VFR VSBY BRIEFLY AT
DAYBREAK. CIG IMPROVES TO MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT OT LOW VFR SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...AND WILL PERSIST WITH FREQUENT BREAKS INTO
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR CIGS AT FOOTHILLS SITES BY
DAYBREAK...BUT VLIFR OR LIFR AT KAVL. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LIMITS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS N AND S OF KAVL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CIGS LIFT TO MVFR BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. NE WINDS VEER EAST
IN THE FOOTHILLS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN SE AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY IN A PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RETURN TO
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THU-SAT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 98% HIGH 84%
KGSP HIGH 94% HIGH 83% HIGH 95% HIGH 82%
KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 82% MED 64% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 96% HIGH 87% HIGH 94%
KGMU HIGH 98% HIGH 87% HIGH 98% MED 74%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 83% HIGH 82%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH/VISIN
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JOH/VISIN
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING OVER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM...AS ANTICIPATED...THE PAST SEVERAL SFC ANALYSIS REVEAL
THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
SINCE LATE EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP EAST OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GENERALLY...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...EXPECTED TO ASHE OUT
BY 9Z. I WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE NEAR TERM TO CATE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS HAVE COOLED SLOWER THAN FORECASTS...I WILL WARM
MIN A DEGREE OR TWO.
AS OF 1015 PM...JUST WHEN IT APPEARED CONVECTION WAS FINISHED FOR
THE NIGHT...NEW CELLS HAVE BEGUN POPPING UP ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE PIEDMONT IN THE LAST HOUR. THIS ISN/T COMPLETELY
SURPRISING...AS THE RAP SHOWS ANOTHER H5 VORT MAX ENTERING THE CWFA
FROM THE WEST ATOP LAPS CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AREAS
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. PERHAPS THERE IS ALREADY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF
THE MTNS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BNDRYS THAT ARE ENUF
TO KICK OFF NEW CONVECTION. OVERALL...IT SHUD BE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
HOWEVER...THEY HAVE BEEN TENDING TO BE SLOW-MOVING OR STATIONARY. SO
THERE IS A SMALL EXCESSIVE RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT THRU THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. I BASED THE UPDATED POP TRENDS ON THE 00Z HRRR...WHICH
KEEPS A FAIR AMT OF CONVECTION THRU ABOUT 06-07Z...MAINLY IN THE
UPSTATE AND SWRN NC PIEDMONT.
LATE TONIGHT...AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND IT. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE...BUT EVEN WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERING...SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
DESPITE A SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE DAY...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL...AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT...AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MASS IS WARMED MORE READILY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE WEAKLY CAPPED ON
TUESDAY...AND ONLY MINIMAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LLVL WINDS
OUT OF THE E TO NE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE QUITE WEAK AND NO SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION.
ABOUT THE ONLY FORCING WILL BE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE AND SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP...THOUGH THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW END OF THE SCATTERED RANGE. THE WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT NOTHING IN THE MODELS
INDICATES THAT CONVECTION WILL LIVE MUCH AFTER DARK AND I TAPER POPS
BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
BY THURSDAY THE NAM BECOMES QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW IN THE GULF. IT ALSO BRINGS A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
AND THE NAM HAS BEEN REJECTED FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
STILL...THE GFS HAS 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINNING TO APPROACH WITH THE
NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND NOT FROM THE GULF LIKE THE NAM DOES. THIS
SHOULD BRING GOOD COVERAGE TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY
RAIN. I HAVE 50 POPS FOR THE AFTN HOURS...THOUGH THAT WILL PROBABLY
GO UP IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES AS THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UNTIL
THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OR IT/S
EXACT TRACK. REGARDLESS OF THAT DEVELOPMENT...THERE WILL BE QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WE SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL AND/OR EXTRATROPICAL WAVE.
STILL...WITH WEAK SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION I WOULDN/T EXPECT THAT
WE WILL SEE MUCH LLVL DRYING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALBEIT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD. BY MONDAY THE ERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO AMPLY
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BRING
GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO REGION ON DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AS ANTICIPATED...THE PAST SEVERAL SFC ANALYSIS REVEAL THAT
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
SINCE LATE EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP EAST OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GENERALLY...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINAL...EXPECTED TO ASHE OUT BY 9Z.
I WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST CROSS WINDS AROUND
3 KTS. AFTER SUNRISE...SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS TO BACK
TO NE ACROSS THE TERMINAL...SPEEDS AROUND 6 KTS. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER MVFR DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS MAINLY THE RESULT OF LOW LCL BELOW A
BUILDING H6 INVERSION. THE MOS GUIDANCE AGREEMENT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUDS IS LOW. HOWEVER...BASED LLVL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM SOUNDING...I WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE POSSIBLE MVFR CLOUDS WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 17-20Z.
ELSEWHERE...VERY CHALLENGING CEILING FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAF
PACKAGE. MOST OF THE PIEDMONT TAF SITE REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF A
STATION FRONT. KHKY IS THE CLOSEST AND MAY SEE A VCSH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. RECENT OBS AT KGSP AND KGMU INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILING EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE VERY LATEST OBS OBSERVING SCT MVFR
CLOUDS. I WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SKY CONDITIONS CLOSELY...BUT WILL
KEEP MVFR SCT FOR NOW. AFTER SUNRISE...SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT
WINDS TO BACK TO NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SPEEDS AROUND 6 KTS. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER MVFR DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS MAINLY THE RESULT OF LOW
LCL BELOW A BUILDING H6 INVERSION. THE MOS GUIDANCE AGREEMENT ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUDS IS LOW. HOWEVER...BASED LLVL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM SOUNDING...I WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE POSSIBLE MVFR CLOUDS WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 17-20Z AT KGSP AND
KGMU. KAVL WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHC FOR MVFR CLOUDS AFTER
14Z...ELSEWHERE I WILL KEEP SKY VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND MVFR CATE
CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY IN A PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WED AND THU MORNINGS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
RETURN TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THU-SAT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 86% MED 79% MED 71% MED 70%
KAVL HIGH 80% MED 64% HIGH 82% MED 62%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 81% HIGH 80%
KGMU HIGH 85% HIGH 97% HIGH 84% HIGH 85%
KAND HIGH 89% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% MED 74%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
803 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
SCALED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 06Z AS STORMS OVER AR/WRN
TN WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET HERE. AFTER THAT...SEVERAL WRF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER MO CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THESE
DOWNSTREAM STORMS AND PUSHING THEM INTO MIDDLE TN MAINLY AFTER
06Z. BASED ON THAT...KEPT LOW LIKELY POPS FROM I-65 WEST AFTER
06Z AND LOW CHC POPS OVER THE EAST. LATEST SOUNDING OUT OF BNA
SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND VERY WEAK SHEAR...SO ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND MOVE VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT BECAUSE OF THIS.
UPDATE SENT TO THE WEB ALREADY. ZONE UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CWA CURRENTLY CONVECTION FREE...BUT NEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS WEST TN/EAST AR OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING
DUE TO CURRENT SLOW MOVEMENT AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GUIDANCE
MAKE FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE
INHERITED MENTION OF -TSRA/-SHRA AT ALL AIRPORTS NEAR/AFTER 06Z
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE...WITH PRECIP ENDING BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND CIGS/VIS IMPROVING TO VFR AT CKV/BNA. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AS WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
55
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE EARLIER STORMS AFFECTING MIDDLE
TENNESSEE HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR MOVED OUT OF THE MID STATE
ALTOGETHER, LEAVING US WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND A HUMID
ATMOSPHERE. RADAR SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, BUT THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY
WON`T MAKE IT THIS FAR, WITH THE BULK OF TONIGHT`S PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHES IN
FROM THE NW JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. POP`S WILL
DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY AFTER TOMORROW AS ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOES
PARTIAL DRYING. HOWEVER, NAM DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW NEAR LMK
ASSIMILATING INTO A DEEPER GULF LOW AND FINALLY PULLING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY, SO CAN`T
COMPLETELY WIPE OUT POP`S FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER A DRY, COOLER WEEKEND, LOOK FOR A RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POP`S BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS WE SEE THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A STEEP NW FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
707 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CWA CURRENTLY CONVECTION FREE...BUT NEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS WEST TN/EAST AR OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING
DUE TO CURRENT SLOW MOVEMENT AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GUIDANCE
MAKE FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE
INHERITED MENTION OF -TSRA/-SHRA AT ALL AIRPORTS NEAR/AFTER 06Z
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE...WITH PRECIP ENDING BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND CIGS/VIS IMPROVING TO VFR AT CKV/BNA. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AS WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE EARLIER STORMS AFFECTING MIDDLE
TENNESSEE HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR MOVED OUT OF THE MID STATE
ALTOGETHER, LEAVING US WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND A HUMID
ATMOSPHERE. RADAR SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, BUT THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY
WON`T MAKE IT THIS FAR, WITH THE BULK OF TONIGHT`S PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHES IN
FROM THE NW JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. POP`S WILL
DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY AFTER TOMORROW AS ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOES
PARTIAL DRYING. HOWEVER, NAM DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW NEAR LMK
ASSIMILATING INTO A DEEPER GULF LOW AND FINALLY PULLING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY, SO CAN`T
COMPLETELY WIPE OUT POP`S FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER A DRY, COOLER WEEKEND, LOOK FOR A RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POP`S BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS WE SEE THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A STEEP NW FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
558 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WHILE A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS OR 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE EITHER A VCTS OR TEMPO GROUP AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MVFR FOR CEILINGS AS LOWER CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE..
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 277.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK WHILE THE
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL TX/OK PANHANDLES. LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
EVENING. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITHIN A 200 MI RADIUS OF KAMA ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CU DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM. LIKE
YESTERDAY HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. EVENING POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AS LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE NEAR THE
FRONT AND DRYLINE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. FURTHERMORE A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET MAY
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD LATER IN THE DAY WED AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AMA CWA...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW
LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER UPSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER SO THE INTENSITY OF DIURNAL
HEATING WILL NOT BE AS GREAT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM...
HAVE DECREASED STORM CHANCES THURS DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH
THE UPPER AIR WX PATTERN DISPLAYING A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES IN THE
EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
POPS WITH THE THINKING THAT ANY CONVECTION FORMING ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
BEYOND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MID WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL QUITE A
WAYS OUT IN TIME.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT...THEREBY PRECLUDING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEK. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD SO ITS LIKELY SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE VERY LITTLE OR NOT EVEN ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
552 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE..
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 277.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK WHILE THE
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL TX/OK PANHANDLES. LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
EVENING. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITHIN A 200 MI RADIUS OF KAMA ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CU DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM. LIKE
YESTERDAY HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. EVENING POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AS LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE NEAR THE
FRONT AND DRYLINE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. FURTHERMORE A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET MAY
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD LATER IN THE DAY WED AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AMA CWA...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW
LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER UPSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER SO THE INTENSITY OF DIURNAL
HEATING WILL NOT BE AS GREAT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM...
HAVE DECREASED STORM CHANCES THURS DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH
THE UPPER AIR WX PATTERN DISPLAYING A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES IN THE
EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
POPS WITH THE THINKING THAT ANY CONVECTION FORMING ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
BEYOND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MID WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL QUITE A
WAYS OUT IN TIME.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT...THEREBY PRECLUDING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEK. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD SO ITS LIKELY SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE VERY LITTLE OR NOT EVEN ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
358 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK WHILE THE
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL TX/OK PANHANDLES. LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
EVENING. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITHIN A 200 MI RADIUS OF KAMA ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CU DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM. LIKE
YESTERDAY HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. EVENING POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AS LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE NEAR THE
FRONT AND DRYLINE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. FURTHERMORE A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET MAY
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD LATER IN THE DAY WED AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AMA CWA...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW
LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER UPSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER SO THE INTENSITY OF DIURNAL
HEATING WILL NOT BE AS GREAT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...
HAVE DECREASED STORM CHANCES THURS DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH
THE UPPER AIR WX PATTERN DISPLAYING A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES IN THE
EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
POPS WITH THE THINKING THAT ANY CONVECTION FORMING ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
BEYOND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MID WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL QUITE A
WAYS OUT IN TIME.
CLK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT...THEREBY PRECLUDING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEK. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD SO ITS LIKELY SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE VERY LITTLE OR NOT EVEN ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 63 78 55 78 57 / 30 20 30 10 20
BEAVER OK 67 70 54 81 54 / 60 30 20 5 10
BOISE CITY OK 59 69 53 78 56 / 60 40 30 20 30
BORGER TX 71 75 58 80 62 / 30 20 30 10 20
BOYS RANCH TX 67 78 58 82 59 / 30 30 30 10 20
CANYON TX 63 78 57 79 57 / 20 20 40 10 20
CLARENDON TX 64 81 59 78 58 / 30 20 30 10 20
DALHART TX 61 74 54 78 57 / 40 30 30 10 30
GUYMON OK 64 71 55 81 57 / 60 30 30 10 20
HEREFORD TX 62 77 58 78 57 / 20 20 40 10 30
LIPSCOMB TX 69 72 56 80 56 / 50 30 30 10 10
PAMPA TX 65 73 56 77 57 / 30 20 30 10 20
SHAMROCK TX 66 82 59 79 57 / 40 20 30 10 10
WELLINGTON TX 67 85 61 82 60 / 30 20 40 10 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING KCDS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY IMPACTING KCDS IS LOW...HOWEVER...
AND NOT INCLUDED IN THE LATEST TAF. VFR TO DOMINATE OTHERWISE WITH
MODEST LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET 45-50 KNOTS OVERHEAD KLBB EARLY THEN SHIFTING EAST. STILL
BELIEVE SURFACE FLOW MIXED ENOUGH TO MITIGATE WIND SHEAR SO DID
NOT INCLUDE LLWS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OF
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THE
LLWS REMARK...BUT WILL BE WATCHING OF COURSE. ALSO...WATCHING
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFT EASTWARD SO FAR THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...STILL NO
INDICATION THESE WILL TURN SOUTH WHILE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT. SINCE WE ARE WITHIN THE 9 HOUR WINDOW WE CHOSE TO
LEAVE TS MENTION OUT DUE TO UNCERTAIN CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WE ARE WATCHING IS IN EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THAT
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING A COLD POOL THAT SHOULD ALLOW PROGRESSION
PERHAPS CLOSE TO THE TEXAS LINE...THOUGH SOLUTIONS ALSO DIVERGE
REGARDING WHAT OCCURS NEXT THERE AS WELL. ANYWAY... WILL UPDATE AS
NEEDED. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGE/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW KS INTO NE NM. OTHER ISOLD STORMS FORMING IN HIGHER
TERRAIN VCNTY RUIDOSO NM. A FEW CU ALSO STARTING TO FORM ALONG AND
EAST OF CAPROCK WHERE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES.
PRIMARY SHORTWV ENERGY FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ALONG DIFFUSE
DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN PNHDL INTO WRN OK. THESE STORMS SHOULD TURN SE INTO
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS EVENING AND COULD BRUSH THE
FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA AFTER 7 PM. WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER AREA
OF ENHANCED LIFT ROTATING ACROSS WESTERN NM ATTM AND THIS FEATURE
COULD ALSO AID IN HIGH BASED STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS
TAPPING INTO REMAINING INSTABILITY ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE.
INITIATION FURTHER SOUTH ALONG SOUTHERN EXTENT OF DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH
LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF DEEP LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CONTINUES FROM TULIA SW TOWARD LEVELLAND. WITH A FEW
MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND POSSIBILITY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY
AND WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG CAPROCK HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS VCNTY
CHILDRESS. ALSO KEPT SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE AREA OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
PLAINVIEW AS NM ACTIVITY COULD SURVIVE TRACK EASTWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVERNIGHT MIXING LOW LEVELS AND
HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY HOT DAY
TUE AS DRYLINE MIXES INTO ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS BENEATH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TUE AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY
EXITING OUR PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID EVENING.
LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY EVENING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 50KT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL MOSTLY BE LIFTING DRY AIR.
THEREFORE...CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 00Z. THESE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL ALSO
KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL LOW LEVEL STRATUS NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE
PANHANDLE. THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY PASS OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK MAY BE OUR FINAL CHANCE TO MISS OUT ON RAIN
FOR THE SPRING SEASON. UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PLACE WEST TEXAS IN AN
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT REGION OF A 70KT JET. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO WEST TEXAS.
HOWEVER THIS DAY WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND MAKE A PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME. MEANINGFUL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE ABOVE THE
FRONTAL ZONE BY THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GET A PRONOUNCED BOOST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST VALUES OFF THE CAPROCK. THEREFORE WE WILL
FINALLY GET TO SEE DEEPER WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. PROGGED WCD VALUES AT
THE MOMENT ARE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0KM. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WINDS DO
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY BREEZY FOR A BONAFIDE HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...CONVECTION AND SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BACKING MOISTURE UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO.
CONVECTION MAY THEN FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENINGS. BUT BETTER COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. A
LARGE SUMMER TIME RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL APPEAR TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE DEVELOPING AN
OMEGA BLOCK. JDV
FIRE WEATHER...
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST TUE AFTN WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTN RH
VALUES WILL END UP IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WHILE SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 97 62 85 57 / 20 10 10 20 40
TULIA 68 99 63 86 58 / 20 10 10 20 40
PLAINVIEW 69 102 64 89 60 / 20 10 10 20 40
LEVELLAND 65 102 66 95 61 / 20 0 0 20 40
LUBBOCK 69 104 68 95 62 / 20 0 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 63 103 67 99 62 / 10 0 0 20 30
BROWNFIELD 65 104 68 99 62 / 20 0 0 20 30
CHILDRESS 68 102 69 92 64 / 20 20 20 20 50
SPUR 69 106 70 98 64 / 20 10 10 20 40
ASPERMONT 70 105 71 101 67 / 10 20 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
428 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A flat ridge of high pressure will dictate the weather over the
Inland Northwest through the weekend. Above normal afternoon
temperatures and low precipitation chances will be the result.
Winds will be on the breezy side Friday and Saturday. Unsettled
weather conditions remain possible by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A mild night is in store for the Inland Northwest
tonight. An upper level disturbance currently near the Jasper area
in the Canadian Rockies will continue its trek to the east
tonight. The best combination of moisture and synoptic scale lift
will remain well north of the Canadian border tonight. An
isolated shower can`t be ruled out early this evening over the
high peaks around Bonners Ferry. The 1 PM RUC analysis suggests
surface based CAPE up to 200 J/KG over the ridges of the Idaho
Panhandle, but the model suggests some weak capping as well. Any
showers that do develop will be isolated and should decay by 8 PM.
For the remainder of the night, look for bands of cirrus to spill
into the region. The typical evening drainage wind into the
Wenatchee area will probably be enhanced by a bit of marine air
spilling through Stevens Pass. Winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected
in the Wenatchee area through about 9 PM.
Thursday: Temperatures on Thursday should be another 2 to 4
degrees warmer than today over northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. The 850mb temperatures progs from the NAM and GFS
suggest comparable high temperatures for Wenatchee and Moses Lake
compared to today. By late afternoon, the nose of the Polar Jet is
expected to impinge upon southern British Columbia, and the models
prog a minor wiggle in the 500mb flow over the Idaho Panhandle
late in the day. The NAM and SREF produce more shower activity
late in the day than the ECMWF and GFS over the mountains of the
Idaho Panhandle and over the Blue mountains. Even the "wet"
NAM/SREF produce isolated convection at best, so the mention of
shower activity will be limited to a 20 percent chance over the
ridges over the Panhandle and extreme southeast Washington. /GKoch
Thursday night through Sunday...Flat ridge with zonal flow
through it marks this forecast interval. With this in mind the
majority of shortwave disturbances traversing through this flow
will be primarily result in repeat days of afternoon/evening gusty
winds with each passage. Fronts/shortwaves having the best tie
into moisture include the one passing Friday and even then since
there is considerable westerly flow downsloping off the Cascade
mountains keeping a significant rain shadow in place extending into
a good portion of the lowlands so the most significant pop
increase (which isn`t much) is primarily over the mountains near
the British Columbia border and the North Idaho Panhandle.
Forecast temperatures remain on the warm side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti
Sunday night through Wednesday...The Inland Northwest will be under
increasing southerly flow, with potentially more unsettled weather
and continued warm temperatures. While the warm temperatures are
more of a certainty, the details of the transition to southerly
flow has still not been ironed out. This will have an impact on
timing of better precipitation chances. Until a more consensus
solution shows itself, we kept the highest chances for any shower
or thunderstorm over the Idaho panhandle beginning Wednesday.
Otherwise, the temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Eastern WA and north ID will remain under the dirty
ridge, meaning weak impulses slide through bringing periods of
middle and high clouds, along with some afternoon breeziness.
Expect VFR conditions at TAF sites. Occasional breezy conditions
will be found this evening, with occasional gusts between
15-20kts, especially near the Cascades and exposed areas. This
includes the KEAT area. Winds should abate after 03-07Z. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 57 85 58 82 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 52 84 53 81 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 51 84 55 81 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 58 91 60 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 52 89 53 86 49 82 / 0 10 0 10 10 0
Sandpoint 48 82 50 79 47 76 / 0 10 0 10 10 10
Kellogg 55 81 56 78 52 74 / 0 10 10 10 10 0
Moses Lake 55 89 58 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 62 88 61 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 53 89 54 83 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
157 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.AVIATION...
EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING SHOWERS AT KAFP
THROUGH 13Z...OTHERWISE VCSH THIS MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH A BIT LATE
THIS EVENING. OCSNL MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST...AND 4-6SM IN SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON...BUT NEITHER APPEAR TO PREVAIL AND NOT INCLUDED IN
6Z TAF ISSUANCE. BRIEF SIGNIFICANT VSBY/CIG DEGRADATION IS
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS BEEN NAMED AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS ARE KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. LATEST HRRR TENDS TO KEEP THIS TREND GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATED QPF GRIDS SLIGHTLY BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION FLARED UP JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER LAST NIGHT AND THIS HAS PRODUCED A MASSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR WATERS WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE BROAD
CIRCULATION LOCATION BUT DIFFER WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSEST
ALIGNMENT AND TAKE IT TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS PLACES SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A
CONTINUED FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WITH A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW
TODAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REAL
DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER RESTRICTING THE INSTABILITY
WHICH IS CURRENTLY LACKING. THIS ALSO IS REFLECTED IN THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE LAKE REGION BUT
NOTHING MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT. IN ADDITION, IT NOW APPEARS THAT
THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE SLIM
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO NEAR THE WEST COAST AND WATERSPOUTS OVER
THE GULF WATERS MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY. THIS
REALLY IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN FORM
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. IN ADDITION, AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH
THE SURFACE WIND WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY. THE GULF TIDES ARE
RUNNING AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL SO THIS COMBINED WITH THE
ONSHORE WIND, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY NEAR EVERGLADES CITY, MARCO ISLAND AND THE COASTAL
AREAS OF NAPLES.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES,
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT ALLOWING THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH SOME COOLING AT 500 MB BY ONE DEGREE CELSIUS. THE AFFECTS
WILL MAINLY BE MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH
BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE TRAILING TO ITS SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS WILL REVERT THE PATTERN BACK TO A EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE
EAST AND THEN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE... ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH WIND INCREASING TO SCA CRITERIA ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL SCEC ALL OTHER WATERS. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING EAST
AND DIMINISHING.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 76 83 77 / 60 50 70 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 78 86 78 / 60 50 60 40
MIAMI 85 77 84 77 / 60 50 60 40
NAPLES 84 76 84 74 / 70 50 60 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GULF WATERS
FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
406 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* EASTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS IS
ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT THERE REMAINS QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE RAIN BY
CONTINUED EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. THUS EXPECT CURRENT EASTERN EDGE OF
PRECIP TO STRUGGLE ADVANCING EAST. WITH TIME...THIS LAYER DOES
SATURATE SO MORE PREVAILING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY SPREAD FURTHER
EAST. NO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIP.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE EASTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS NORTHERLY DURING THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH CONTINUED FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP...PERHAPS EVEN IFR. BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZE TO VEER WIND FROM NNE TO ENE AT SOME
TIME IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIME-FRAME. EVENING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLGT CHC TS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
SUNDAY...VFR. SHRA LIKELY WITH TEMPO MVFR. CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BRIEF LOCAL IFR. CHANCE SHRA DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM...LOW PRESSURE HAS REDEVELOPED/CENTERED ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND TO START WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DURING THIS TIME THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG IT MAY
BECOME IS ONLY MEDIUM. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE BUT ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE...FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT BUT COULD INCREASE AGAIN
OR MAINTAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME
CONSENSUS OF A POTENTIAL TRACK FROM WI INTO MI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH NOT ONLY ITS TRACK BUT ALSO ITS STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE LOW. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
337 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* EASTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS IS
ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT THERE REMAINS QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE RAIN BY
CONTINUED EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. THUS EXPECT CURRENT EASTERN EDGE OF
PRECIP TO STRUGGLE ADVANCING EAST. WITH TIME...THIS LAYER DOES
SATURATE SO MORE PREVAILING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY SPREAD FURTHER
EAST. NO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIP.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE EASTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS NORTHERLY DURING THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH CONTINUED FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP...PERHAPS EVEN IFR. BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZE TO VEER WIND FROM NNE TO ENE AT SOME
TIME IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIME-FRAME. EVENING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA...SLGT CHC TS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
SUNDAY...VFR. SHRA LIKELY WITH TEMPO MVFR. CHANCE OF TSRA WITH
BRIEF LOCAL IFR. CHANCE SHRA DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM...LOW PRESSURE HAS REDEVELOPED/CENTERED ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND TO START WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DURING THIS TIME THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG IT MAY
BECOME IS ONLY MEDIUM. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE BUT ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE...FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT BUT COULD INCREASE AGAIN
OR MAINTAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME
CONSENSUS OF A POTENTIAL TRACK FROM WI INTO MI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH NOT ONLY ITS TRACK BUT ALSO ITS STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE LOW. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1145 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MCV HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
TAKING THE LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH
AS WELL AND OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AT 19Z. THE H5 UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DEPICTED OVER WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN THE PROFILER NETWORK.
SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
HRRR AS WELL AS THE RAP AND NAM BRING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING BY 04Z. SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. THURSDAYS HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDS.
CALM AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.
THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT/RISK FOR SEVERE WX APPEARS TO BE ON SAT- SAT
NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO APPROACH LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 850MB ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND RACE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE AREA
LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON SUN...AND A SFC BOUNDARY
COULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER LACK OF UPPER
FORCING AND RISING HTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP CHCS TO SCT AND
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.
BY MON AND NEXT TUES...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FLAT
RIDGE WITH 588-594 500MB HTS SO LOOK FOR HOTTER WX. THERE WILL BE
A SFC BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB INTO NW MO. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE ANYWHERE SOUTHWEST OF THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CAPPED. 850MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST NEAR
90 IF NOT WARMER SO WILL GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDS AND THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHC FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY
AND CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. 67
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...CO
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
531 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MCV HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
TAKING THE LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH
AS WELL AND OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AT 19Z. THE H5 UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DEPICTED OVER WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN THE PROFILER NETWORK.
SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
HRRR AS WELL AS THE RAP AND NAM BRING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING BY 04Z. SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. THURSDAYS HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDS.
CALM AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.
THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT/RISK FOR SEVERE WX APPEARS TO BE ON SAT- SAT
NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO APPROACH LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 850MB ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND RACE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE AREA
LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON SUN...AND A SFC BOUNDARY
COULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER LACK OF UPPER
FORCING AND RISING HTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP CHCS TO SCT AND
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.
BY MON AND NEXT TUES...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FLAT
RIDGE WITH 588-594 500MB HTS SO LOOK FOR HOTTER WX. THERE WILL BE
A SFC BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB INTO NW MO. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE ANYWHERE SOUTHWEST OF THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CAPPED. 850MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST NEAR
90 IF NOT WARMER SO WILL GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDS AND THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHC FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND FORECAST FOR
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS VFR. SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...CO
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER DAKOTAS
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NW KS. COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...WITH STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH
MLCAPE INCREASE ALONG FRONT RANGE AND UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE ALONG
PALMER ASSOCIATED WITH NE FLOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF OUR CWA LATER. CAPE/SHEER
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN.
ULTIMATELY WE MAY NOT ACTUALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 03Z WHEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AND DEEP MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
CWA...HOWEVER H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WED. NAM IS
SHOWING SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA/PV HEIGHT ANOMALIES TRACKING OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WED WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP DEPENDING ON THEIR
LOCATIONS. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING STILL SEEMS TO BE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF CWA...AND WHILE PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY I AM UNSURE ABOUT
AMOUNTS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z SO I ONLY LEFT
ISO THUNDER MENTION AFTER THAT POINT. LOCATION OF EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AND LOCATION OF ENHANCE AREA OF RAIN BANDS/SHOWER CLUSTERS
WILL DETERMINE BEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND THESE WILL BE MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED. AN ESTIMATE OF 0.10 TO 0.30" TOTAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE
CWA SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THIS EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH CAA OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...AND LINGERING PRECIP/THICK CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY NOT SEE HIGHS REACH 60F IF
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE VERIFIES AND PRECIP LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I LOWERED TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS STILL
ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NAM/MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT
STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. FLOW IN GENERAL IS VERY COMPLICATED AND
LITTERED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW.
AT MID LEVELS THE ECMWF WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
NAM/SREF/GFS. MODELS LOOK TO INITIALLY BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. THE UKMET AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DURING THE EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE EAST. DO EXPECT RAINFALL
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THIS EVENT ENDS. THE WINDS GO
LIGHT AND CLEARING DOES OCCUR. NOT A DEFINITE SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS BUT DO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
WEAK JET LIFT LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL LIFT IS AROUND. REMOTE CHANCE
THAT SOMETHING COULD FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN
COLORADO. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK. SO WILL KEEP IT
DRY.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SOME STRONGER UPPER JET LIFT COMES IN DURING
THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AIR MASS DRIES
AS HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE JET...WHICH MAY
ONLY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID
LEVEL LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE IS STILL NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. GUIDANCE STAYS
COOL AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WENT IN THAT DIRECTION.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO LOOKS TO BE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OUT
WEST. BEST LIFT LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THIS PERIOD. SO PULLED POPS
FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY AND CONFINED THEM TO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. WITH LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST AS SURFACE RIDGE PULLS
AWAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST. NOT THE BEST
DIRECTION FOR A WARMUP. SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SO THE CHANCE POPS THE CRH INIT POPS I WAS GIVEN LOOK
REASONABLE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF EVENTUALLY THEY WENT
HIGHER. AFTER THAT THE FORECAST GETS MORE UNCERTAIN. THROUGH
MONDAY THE MODELS SHOW THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES RISING TO
VARYING DEGREES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH IN A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ALSO DURING THIS TIME THE MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER...CAPPED AND DRIER
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH COOLER AND WETTER. ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST LEAVING THE AREA POSSIBLY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. SO MODEL OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPECT IN THE
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD AND TO ME LOOKS PROBLEMATIC TO TRY MAKE
ANY SENSE OR MAKE BIG CHANGES TO IT. SO CHOSE TO KEEP THE OVERALL POP
FIELD IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME WITH A CHANCE THAT EITHER EXTREME
COULD BECOME REALITY. ALSO KEPT REMAINING INHERITED INIT GRIDS
UNCHANGED.
&&
.AVIATION....(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MORNING STRATUS HAS ALREADY LIFTED AT MCK WHERE VFR CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
CIGS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF IMPROVING AT KGLD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH
BEST MOISTURE AT KGLD WHERE VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN VICINITY AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES SHOULD START OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY
HAVE IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS BY 12Z AT KGLD AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED
MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER VIS/CIGS...HOWEVER I
PREFER TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT BEFORE COMMITTING
THIS EARLY. WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10-14KT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH REGION WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20-25KT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING EASTERN KS AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW FROM ID INTO WY. AT THE SURFACE...OBS SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER AM NOT THAT OPTIMISTIC STORMS
WILL FORM. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG OVER CENTRAL KS WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AS NOTED IN THE MID
LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD OF 5 TO 10 KTS DOES NOT SUGGEST CONVERGENCE WITHIN
THE TROUGH AXIS IS VERY STRONG AND THE CU FIELD ON VISIBLE HAS NOT
SHOWN MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. IF SOMETHING WERE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
MAYBE NEAR MINNEAPOLIS. IF STORMS ARE UNABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING AND A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF CONVECTION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS AND MID RANGE MODELS
IS TO TRACK THE MCS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A SLOWER
AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE MCS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE
HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE NEB STATE
LINE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WITH PRECIP EVENTUALLY COMING TO
AN END THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE END OF
PRECIP IS LOW UNTIL THE ACTUALLY MCS FORMS AND WE GET A BETTER IDEA
OF WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH. BECAUSE OF THIS
HAVE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
WOLTERS
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY WANE WITH FRONT SINKING
SOUTH AND UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING IN. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIODS AGAIN LOOKING DRY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH MAINLY NORTHEAST LOCATIONS FOR POSSIBLE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
COOL MID LEVELS...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF NUISANCE-AT-MOST PRECIP. CLOUD COVER COULD
BE RATHER PREVALENT DESPITE DEEP BUT WEAK DOWNGLIDE AND WILL GO WITH
HIGHS A BIT BELOW MOS. MORE SUN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY THOUGH WEAKER
MIXING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH BEYOND THURSDAYS
EXPECTATIONS.
THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS TRENDING FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH MAIN
IMPACTS LIKELY COMING IN THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PERIODS.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY EARLY SUNDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES WERE REDUCED HERE.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THEIR RANGE...FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
SHARPEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT FOR WARM FRONT/WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIODS. THIS
IS UNDER A DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...BUT IT AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK/COOL. BY TUESDAY...AGAIN BARRING ANY
PERSISTENT DAYTIME CONVECTION...HIGHS SHOULD RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
GIVEN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF THE WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST...THINK
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS OVERNIGHT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WHERE IT MAY TRACK. SO WILL MAINTAIN A VFR
FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY
WITH THE HIGH RES MODELS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE EXITING EASTERN KS
WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. BECAUSE OF THIS WILL TREND POPS DOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THEY ARE GENERATING CONVECTION BASED
ON LITTLE OR NO CIN. HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO LIFT PARCELS. THEREFORE THINK THE
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE AFTERNOON QPF. MODELS STILL SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MCS FORMATION OUT WEST AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN KS. THIS MAY BE WHAT PRODUCES THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A RATHER POOR JOB IN
DEPICTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXPECT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN
KANSAS TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL EASTWARD TREK. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS...EVIDENCED BY THE ACTIVITY THAT
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR/SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE IN THE PAST HOUR. AT THE
SAME TIME...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS/VEERS AND UPPER SUBSIDENCE FILLS IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD SEE ALL ACTIVITY DECREASE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING...LIKELY OWING TO THE CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 10K FEET. HRRR STILL CONVECTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN DOING SO...BUT HAS A TENDENCY
TO OVER-CONVECT DURING PEAK HEATING WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE SETUP EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AT 3 AM...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LEAD
SHORT WAVE APPEARED TO HAVE AN AXIS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE SEEMED VAGUELY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND WIND PROFILES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE HAS
PROVIDED ENOUGH ASCENT IN AN ATMOSPHERE WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN STRONG
ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE OCCURRED...PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREAS OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH DRY LAYERS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
EAST AND PERSIST GIVEN THE ENHANCED ASCENT WITHIN AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD OR SEVERE ACTIVITY THOUGH.
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD TROUGH WITH AN
EXPECTATION OF A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF NORTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD SEE
RATHER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING.
HOWEVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE AND HEATING TODAY WHILE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SET UP NEAR THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...IN THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR PERHAPS
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A WARM CAPPING
LAYER AROUND 10K FEET IN ORDER TO INITIATE. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS
IN PLACE...IF STORMS DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHWEST OF A
CONCORDIA TO MANHATTAN TO EMPORIA LINE. THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE
FOCUSED ON HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WARRANTS MENTION OF A VERY SMALL TORNADO
POTENTIAL IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES FROM THE LCL TO 10K FEET. IT WOULD
THEN APPEAR THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD THE STORMS GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. ANY UPSCALE GROWTH IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH AND
WOULD SEEM TO BE FAVORED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN CONSISTENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ROTATE OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF
WEAK IMPULSES OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD GENERATE
ADEQUATE LIFT COINCIDENT WITH AN H85 FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ONLY CONSIDERATIONS TO RESOLVE
BEGIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE TROUGH AS THE 00Z NAM LAGS
BEHIND THE 00Z GFS. ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH SFC
FRONT REACHES BY PEAK HEATING TIME AND IF ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE FROM OVERTURNING. BEST CHANCES ATTM RESIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN
VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISM FROM THE FRONT.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS AREA MAY DEVELOP A
FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
PRECIP CHANCES END BY THURS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SEES DRY CONDITIONS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH COOL ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES COULD RESULT IN LOWS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SLIDING INTO THE LOW 50S. HIGHS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THE LOW 70S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. GULF
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW GENERATING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BUT OVERALL APPEARS TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HELPING TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY. LEFT MONDAY AFTERNOON DRY AT THIS TIME AS
DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST FOR ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS READING IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
GIVEN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF THE WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST...THINK
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS OVERNIGHT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WHERE IT MAY TRACK. SO WILL MAINTAIN A VFR
FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY
WITH THE HIGH RES MODELS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
654 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND SHORT TERM FORECAST EXPECTATIONS...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A RATHER POOR JOB IN
DEPICTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXPECT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN
KANSAS TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL EASTWARD TREK. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS...EVIDENCED BY THE ACTIVITY THAT
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR/SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE IN THE PAST HOUR. AT THE
SAME TIME...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS/VEERS AND UPPER SUBSIDENCE FILLS IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD SEE ALL ACTIVITY DECREASE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING...LIKELY OWING TO THE CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 10K FEET. HRRR STILL CONVECTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN DOING SO...BUT HAS A TENDENCY
TO OVER-CONVECT DURING PEAK HEATING WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE SETUP EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AT 3 AM...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LEAD
SHORT WAVE APPEARED TO HAVE AN AXIS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE SEEMED VAGUELY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND WIND PROFILES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE HAS
PROVIDED ENOUGH ASCENT IN AN ATMOSPHERE WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN STRONG
ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE OCCURRED...PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREAS OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH DRY LAYERS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
EAST AND PERSIST GIVEN THE ENHANCED ASCENT WITHIN AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD OR SEVERE ACTIVITY THOUGH.
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD TROUGH WITH AN
EXPECTATION OF A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF NORTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD SEE
RATHER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING.
HOWEVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE AND HEATING TODAY WHILE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SET UP NEAR THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...IN THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR PERHAPS
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A WARM CAPPING
LAYER AROUND 10K FEET IN ORDER TO INITIATE. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS
IN PLACE...IF STORMS DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHWEST OF A
CONCORDIA TO MANHATTAN TO EMPORIA LINE. THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE
FOCUSED ON HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WARRANTS MENTION OF A VERY SMALL TORNADO
POTENTIAL IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES FROM THE LCL TO 10K FEET. IT WOULD
THEN APPEAR THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD THE STORMS GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. ANY UPSCALE GROWTH IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH AND
WOULD SEEM TO BE FAVORED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN CONSISTENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ROTATE OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF
WEAK IMPULSES OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD GENERATE
ADEQUATE LIFT COINCIDENT WITH AN H85 FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ONLY CONSIDERATIONS TO RESOLVE
BEGIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE TROUGH AS THE 00Z NAM LAGS
BEHIND THE 00Z GFS. ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH SFC
FRONT REACHES BY PEAK HEATING TIME AND IF ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE FROM OVERTURNING. BEST CHANCES ATTM RESIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN
VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISM FROM THE FRONT.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS AREA MAY DEVELOP A
FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
PRECIP CHANCES END BY THURS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SEES DRY CONDITIONS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH COOL ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES COULD RESULT IN LOWS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SLIDING INTO THE LOW 50S. HIGHS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THE LOW 70S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. GULF
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW GENERATING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BUT OVERALL APPEARS TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HELPING TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY. LEFT MONDAY AFTERNOON DRY AT THIS TIME AS
DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST FOR ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS READING IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER/NEAR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DURING ANY SHRA OR TS. SHOULD BE DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THE SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS AND DEVELOPMENT COULD VARY BY AS MUCH AS FOUR HOURS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
201 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA...WITH THE AREA IN A BIT OF
A LULL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO
TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. THUS...AFTER A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGH DAYBREAK...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AGAIN
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HAD DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SO NO UPDATE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE 0Z NAM IS ALMOST CERTAINLY OVERDOING CONVECTION ACROSS EAST KY
FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR RUNS SHOW A RELATIVELY
INACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST KY SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION NOW OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION WILL WORK TOWARD EAST
KY OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA BY DAWN. CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS WITH ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH. AT
PRESENT THERE APPEARS TO BE THINNING CLOUDS ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE
75. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WELL AND IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG ENOUGH THIS MIGHT GET DENSE IN A
FEW SPOTS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
ONCE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE VA BORDER
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS A RELATIVE LULL IN
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. THE RECENT NAM AND HRRR RUNS BOTH INDICATE
THAT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY APPROACH THE CWA FROM CENTRAL KY TOWARD
DAWN. BEFORE THIS ARRIVES...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOURLY POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS...A MESOSCALE CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE DURING THE MORNING WAS ABLE TO
SPAWN A GROUP TO THE NORTH THAT HAS ROLLED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO ENVELOP THE REST OF
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID DAY UNFOLDED ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MID 80S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 70S LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND THE STORMS INTERRUPTED THE DIURNAL RISE. HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR SURGED NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH MID 60S
REPORTED ACROSS MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY AT MID AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
SOME UPPER 60S OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE KEY MID LEVEL FEATURES
AFFECTING THE AREA/S FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN SOURCE
OF TROUBLE REVOLVES AROUND A LOW OVER THE GULF THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THE NAM AND SREF TAKE THIS WAVE...AND ITS SFC REFLECTION...
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER MODELS/ TRACKS AND THE NHC. THIS ALSO
IMPACTS THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
NAM ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE THE NAM
HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
ECMWF FAVORED INSTEAD. HOWEVER...THE NAM12...ALONG WITH THE HRRR...
DOES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY CURRENTLY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE USED A COMBINATION OF THESE
SOLUTIONS INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THIS FIRST WAVE WILL BE A PROMINENT
COMPONENT IN OUR WX.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
FROM THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE LIGHT TO
MODERATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
LEFTOVER OR STRAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING HELPING TO YIELD
GOOD COVERAGE. PWS WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT MAKING HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY. EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW PASSING BY TO
THE SOUTH...TO MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS...
ZFP AND HWO.
USED THE CONSSHORT FOR A STARTING POINT FOR TD AND WINDS WITH CONSALL
FOR TEMPS. GIVEN THE SATURATED AIR MASS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DID
NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON TERRAIN. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE MOS GUIDANCE WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS STARTS OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY . EVEN THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA...THE MIDWEST WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A WEAK TROUGH. A
FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A RELIEF BUT THEN
ON SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL LEAVE EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR IS SOME WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. THIS
WILL PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE MOVING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL
BLEND...THEN NUDGED THEM TO THE COOLER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
AFTER A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS ONGOING CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RANGE FROM
ZERO TO 3 AREAWIDE...SO IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP. WITH CLOUD COVER BEEN PERSISTENT...GOING TO GO WITH LIMITED
FOG AT THE TAF SITES WITH 5SM A POSSIBILITY. ANY STORMS TODAY COULD
CONTAINS SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE ANY SPECIFIC TIMING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
434 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FCST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SRN PLAINS MCS 24 HOURS AGO IS
NOW JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS PROVIDED JUST
ENOUGH ASCENT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY/S
CONVECTION TO INITIATE WIDELY SCT TSTMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACROSS N CNTRL LA IN THE VICINITY OF A THETA-E RIDGE. WEAK MID-
LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SLOW MOVEMENT AND MERGING OF INDIVIDUAL
CELLS INTO CLUSTERS. COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS HAS LED TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALREADY ACROSS
THE ERN ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS COLLAPSE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ESEWD AND EVENTUALLY OUT
OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING.
THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN
OK/N TX. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT AN MCV IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN KSPS AND I-20. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
KFWS RADAR LOOPS AND IS BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NE
SIDE OF THE MCV AND MAY JUST GRAZE THE NW ZONES. ACTIVITY ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN MORE SCT IN NATURE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THESE
TRENDS WERE PICKED UP QUITE WELL BY THE HI-RES HRRR AND WRF
MODELS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL PORTRAYED AN MCS
MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A SCENARIO
WHICH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. THUS...CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT WAS PUT
INTO THE HI-RE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF FCST PERIODS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF VERIFICATION AND POOR INITIALIZATIONS THUS FAR OF
THE LARGER SCALE OPERATIONAL MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE MCV...THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...AND COLD FRONT WILL ALL ARRIVE IN THE AREA AT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME. COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED BEYOND FRIDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS AMPLIFIES THE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND BUILD
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIM-TO-NONE CATEGORY AND WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MID 90S.
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE KEY FOR TEMPERATURES
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FCSTS BEYOND MONDAY COULD VERY
WELL BE TOO LOW. /09/
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EXPECTED IN THE
VCNTY OF A FEW OF OUR TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHV/MLU
TERMINALS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH VICINITY WORDING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
PERHAPS WITH A TEMPO GROUP OR TWO WARRANTED WHERE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. ONCE THESE STORMS DECAY...OBVIOUSLY STRONG
GUSTS WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALONG WITH A QUICK REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED WITH AN AMD PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IN THE
12Z TAF PACKAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD LOSE ITS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. /13/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 88 67 86 66 90 / 60 30 10 10 10
MLU 88 65 86 65 90 / 60 40 20 10 10
DEQ 83 58 85 60 87 / 50 20 10 10 10
TXK 84 63 84 63 87 / 60 20 10 10 10
ELD 87 63 85 62 88 / 50 40 10 10 10
TYR 84 64 85 64 90 / 60 20 10 10 10
GGG 85 65 86 64 90 / 60 20 10 10 10
LFK 88 67 88 64 91 / 50 30 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THE FIRST WAS AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH TS ANDREA. AS OF 1AM...MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS
1001MB WITH 40KTS SUSTAINED WIND. THIS PALES IN COMPARISON TO THE
MID LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT WAS ROARING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 976MB AND A MUCH
BROADER 40KT WIND FIELD. THE UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PACIFIC CYCLONE WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE THIRD FEATURE OF INTEREST WAS THE FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDED UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT EVIDENT BY THE EXPANSIVE
CLOUD FIELD THAT BLANKETED THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL AS PLAIN VIEW MAPS VIA FROM BOTH THE
RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 0-1KM RH VALUES OF 90-95 PERCENT LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DRYING OUT ACROSS
FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING IS SUPPORTED
BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS VIA THE RAP AND NAM12 SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION EXTENDING UP TO 700MB BY AFTERNOON...INDICATING SOME
DEEPER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. A FEW OF THESE CU
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO HAVE TRENDED THE
HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT THIS DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL FALL
APART QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE BROKEN STRATUS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO AS OF NOW DID CHOSE NOT TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD REFUSES TO VACATE THE AREA WITH ANY EXPEDIENCY AND MAY
FACILITATE ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MN AND WRN
WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND SOME SUN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE...ALBEIT UNDER A BROKEN CLOUD
SHIELD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPILL OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN
MN INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED TO A LOT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NAM EXHIBITING ITS NORTHERN BIAS WHILE
THE GFS/GEM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE ECMWF CAME INTO RELATIVELY
DECENT AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH THE 00Z RUNS. BIG DIFFERENCE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS THE LATTER SOLUTION DEVELOPS A STOUT
SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SERN SD OR SWRN MN SATURDAY
EVENING. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESE FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR
SRN MN OR NRN IA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
GFS AND GEM QPF FIELDS SHOW PRECIP BREAKING OUT JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AND CONFINED
FURTHER WEST DUE TO WEAKER/FURTHER WEST 850 MB JET. MAINTAINED
HIGH POPS ACROSS WRN MN...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF INTO WRN WI GIVEN
THAT THIS IS JUST A RECENT TREND. THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER FAR SRN MN WILL OCCLUDE AND SLOWLY TRACK ESE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS FAR SRN MN. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WARM FRONT THAT
CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH LONG...LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND LOW
LCL/S. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE. IF THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST CAPE...COULD SEE A TORNADO
THREAT DEVELOP.
THIS SYSTEM REMINDS ME OF A WINTER STORM THIS PAST YEAR...COMPLETE
WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. IT AGAIN BEGS THE QUESTION...WHAT MONTH IS
THIS?
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS COULD FOLLOW SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW
SLOWLY IT TAKES THE LOW TO PULL OUT. IF IT IS CLOUDY AND
RAINY...WE CAN PROBABLY HACK 10 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS ARE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID/LATE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WX TO
MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WILL
SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES SW
OF THE AREA. SOME MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN BR EXPECTED AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM KSTC TO KEAU. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO
MVFR CIG TERRITORY ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST CYCLONIC PATTERN REMAINS
OVER THE AREA WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. N TO NE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
KMSP...THE MVFR CIG OVER THE AIRFIELD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO LOW MVFR BY 15Z. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS 4-8 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS E 5KT.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10KT.
SUN...MVFR LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS W
5-10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRB
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AS GOING FCST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS
SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAT LARGE SCALE FLOW UPSTREAM
WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY TO A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THEN BUILD
EWD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...QUITE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION. LATE FRIDAY THEN COMES THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
THEN COMES THIS WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
EAST. NAM/GFS/ECM STILL MAINTAIN ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOISTURE RICH
AS BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES VIA STRENGTHENING LLVL JET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COUPLED WITH STOUT MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT...STILL BELIEVE POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL TOTALS
BY SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR WRN IA.
AS FOR SVR STORM THREAT...DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS/ECM PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT BNDRY.
THE ECM PRETTY MUCH KEEPS THE SFC LOW ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER THRU
THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS IS SOUTH. IF THE ECM SOLUTION IS
EVENTUALLY PROVEN CORRECT...SRN CWA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG/SVR STORMS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND WHERE SFC
BNDRY EVENTUALLY SETS UP. LATEST HPC FRONT/PRESS GRAPHICS DEPICTS A
STATIONARY FRONT SETTING UP GENERALLY ACROSS KS AND MO MON NIGHT
THRU THURSDAY MORNING. THUS SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN SMALL POPS
AT LEAST UNTIL SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
AS FOR TEMPS...WE SHOULD BE PUSHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES THEN NEXT
WEEK AS WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 5-10KFT THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. HRRR HINTS AT MVFR CIGS FLIRTING WITH KOFK LATE
TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 8-10KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLACKENING AND BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER
SUNSET. WITH ALL SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10KT...DID NOT INCLUDE CHANGE
GROUPS FOR THE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
102 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT
OF ANTICIPATED FOG FORMATION. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODELS
INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MAY INTRUDE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND THAT AREA
REMAINS THE BEST BET FOR FOG FORMATION. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AROUND
2000-3000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING WESTWARD...AND IF IT
LINGERS OVER THE JAMES RIVER BASIN IT MAY ACT TO INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND AND LOWERING
TEMPERATURES FOR BEST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. THUS IT MAY BE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING EASTWARD FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA THAT
MIGHT ALSO LIMIT FOG FORMATION IN THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
AS PREVIOUSLY STATED THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS EVENING IS FOG.
FOR THIS UPDATE AREAS OF WIDESPREAD FOG WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN
A HIGHLIGHTED REGION BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN ALONG THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE FOG
THIS EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN
THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ERODE...WINDS DIE DOWN OR GO CALM...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
STARTS IN ERNEST...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SHOULD PULL EVEN
LATER THIS EVENING. THE 00 UTC NAM AND 00 UTC RAP...ALONG WITH THE
00 UTC HRRR SHOW THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND FOG BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 07 UTC AND 09
UTC.
UPDATED THE REST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALL UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS EVENING UPDATE. THE MAIN
PROBLEM OF THE EVENING WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS IN FAVOR FOR FOG INCLUDE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN...NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
CONDITIONS IN FAVOR OF NO FOG DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE...THICK CLOUD
DECK OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING...DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FOG FORECAST. WILL
MONITOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE
IF CHANGES NEED TO BE MADE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE
SMALL UPDATES TO SKY CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO REFLECT THE SLOWER
CLEARING AND THICKER COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. UPDATED ALL OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALL UPDATED ITEMS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
MORE THAN AMPLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR UP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. WITH THESE BASIC INGREDIENTS
FOR FOG...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND WILL LET
LATER FORECASTS FURTHER EVALUATE AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME.
OVERLAND FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF WARD COUNTY...AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...PIERCE...ROLETTE...BURKE...AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD ADVISORY. AS WATER
RECEDES INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS AND ROADS ARE SIGNED MAY BE ABLE TO
TRANSITION FROM AREA FLOODING TO JUST RIVER POINT FLOODING EITHER
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...HAVE EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD
ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT PROPAGATING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 400-800 J/KG SUGGEST A LIMIT
ON THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT...WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING MORE OF A
CONCERN WITH SATURATED SOILS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.25 INCHES. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
OCCLUDE WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WILL BE RECEIVED IN LIGHT OF CONTINUING CONVECTION FROM
OVERNIGHT TO DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION INCREASE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AS IT PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. THEREAFTER A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE CONUS...SUPPORTING
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH RIDGE RUNNING IMPULSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
KEPT THE MENTION OF SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MVFR/IFR HEIGHT OVER THE
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING TIMING OR AREAL EXTENT
OF ANTICIPATED FOG FORMATION. ADDED MENTION OF SCT CLOUDS AROUND
2000 FEET AT KJMS MOVING IN FROM KFAR AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
OVERLAND FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF WARD COUNTY...AND OVER
PORTIONS OF MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...PIERCE...ROLETTE...BURKE...AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD ADVISORY. AS WATER
RECEDES INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS AND ROADS ARE SIGNED MAY BE ABLE TO
TRANSITION FROM AREA FLOODING TO JUST RIVER POINT FLOODING EITHER
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...HAVE EXTENDED THE AREA FLOOD
ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
352 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL COMBINE TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVES QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A SHADE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS CLEARLY SHOW THE
VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...UNDERNEATH A RATHER AMPLIFIED HIGH-
LATITUDE RIDGE. THESE SAME LOOPS AND ACCOMPANYING IR LOOPS ALSO
CLEARLY SHOW A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY /CURRENTLY IN ERN MO AND WRN IL/ IN A BELT OF STRONGER
WSWLY FLOW IN THE LARGER SCALE/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH BISECTS IOWA AND MISSOURI. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN
IL/ERN MO SHORTWAVE...LOCAL RADAR VWPS AND REFLECTIVITY LOOPS HAVE
CLEARLY CAPTURED THE PASSAGE OF A MORE SUBTLE/WEAK WAVE THROUGH
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH KILN VWP DATA SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL
BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LAST EVENING AND NOW VEERING IN
RECENT HOURS /SINCE 04Z/ AS THE WAVE PASSES. THIS WAVE HAS ALLOWED
FOR A RENEWED SPATE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTL/SCNTL OHIO WITH
IMPRESSIVE RAIN RATES /1.05" AT KCMH IN ABOUT 30 MIN/ AND JUST A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE ACTIVITY NOW FOCUSES MORE ON NERN
OH.
THE 06.00Z KILN RAOB WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 150 J/KG AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN
25KTS...WHICH EXPLAINS THE OVERALL POOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION
SEEN TONIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR /MOIST ADIABATIC/ AND
PWAT MEASURED A HEALTHY 1.31" - ABOUT 125% OF EARLY JUNE NORMALS.
PROBABLY OF MOST IMPORTANCE WAS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT HAS BEEN DRIFTING NW THROUGH OH SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND THIS APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED OUT RIGHT ALONG OR
JUST TO THE EAST OF I-71 FROM NEAR KCVG TO KILN TO KCMH TO JUST
NORTH OF KCAK. IT IS IN THIS VICINITY THAT STORMS HAVE FLARED
TONIGHT WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VASTLY MORE MOIST
AIRMASS FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY ON WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW.
ATTENDANT TO THE WRN IL/ERN MO WAVE...WAS A HEALTHY CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING INTO WRN KY WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHRA AND
COOLING CLOUD TOPS NORTH OF THERE INDICATING ASCENT IS SPREADING
OUR WAY FOR TODAY.
LAST 3-4 RUNS OF NCEP RAP /WITH AGREEMENT FROM MORE ADVANCED ESRL
RAP/ IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT FORCING FOR UVM WITH THE IL/MO
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO THE TRI STATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG/SOUTH OF I-71
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. HIGHER RES HRRR RUNS RECENTLY HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BULLISH - FOCUSING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THIS
SIGNAL MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG - BUT GIVEN THE DRAPED OUT
BOUNDARY...THE APPROACHING WAVE...AND DEEPER MOISTURE THERE COULD
BE SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LINE
UP THIS MORNING. NCEP HIRES-WINDOW RUNS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH NOR
ARE OTHER CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE RAP/HRRR AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING TO BRING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SRN AREAS. LESSER
CHANCES NORTH. BY LATER AFTERNOON MUCH OF THIS LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HAVE EXITED - BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL
DRAPED...AND RESIDUAL WEAK WAVES IN BROAD SWLY FLOW...STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP AT PEAK HEATING INTO THE EVENING ESP ON SRN FLANK OF
DEPARTING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
DEEP LAYER FLOW IS MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION /35KTS OF BULK
SHEAR/ BUT ENOUGH SREF SIGNAL IS THERE FOR PROBS THAT A FEW
UPDRAFTS COULD BE STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE SOUTH /THINKING
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER/ FOR A WIND THREAT. NOT AS SOLD ON A HAIL
THREAT WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENV AND WEAK INSTBY.
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON TEMPS TODAY BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN TO GET US INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE MORNING
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY HOLD US BACK HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER US TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH MUCH LESS LARGER SCALE FORCING. DESPITE
THAT...THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEPER MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS/FEW STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME. THE CHARACTER OF THE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...EVEN INTO SATURDAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS ALL 3 DAYS MOSTLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
THINK BY SATURDAY - THE FORCING SIGNAL AND LOW LEVEL FOCI FOR
CONVECTION ARE TOO MUTED TO CONTINUE A RAIN CHANCE...THOUGH
DEEPER MOISTURE STILL LINGERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BRING A BREAK TO PRECIP...WITH STRONG
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SC AND SW CONUS...SO THAT A VIGOROUS
TROUGH TO APPROACH THE REGION SUN EVENING LOOKS TO BRING AN ACTIVE
GREAT LAKES PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES RIDE OVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN AN ACTIVE PRECIP PATTERN AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS UNDER NW FLOW. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEVELOPS
IN NW-SE FASHION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL
BE AN ACTIVE MCS ZONE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG BEFORE TROUGHING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS IS ALONG THE NOSE OF A 25-30KT 850 MB JET THAT
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT PIVOTS UP INTO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS IT DOES...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD
PCPN TO SHIFT OUT OF CENTRAL OHIO...WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR BR THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT VSBYS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST
MVFR IN SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SHORT WAVE
PUSHES EAST...EXPECT PCPN TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY AS WE HEAD INTO
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JDR/BINAU
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1153 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT CSV...AND ANTICIPATE
CONTINUED LOW CIGS WITH MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LINE FROM WESTERN KY
INTO WESTERN TN AND CURRENT MOVEMENT INDICATES -SHRA/-TSRA WILL
REACH CKV BY 08Z...BNA BY 10Z...AND CSV IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE
BY 15Z. AIRPORTS CAN EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR A FEW HOURS AS LINE
MOVES ACROSS. PRECIP TO END AT TERMINALS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON MAINLY
AT CSV. CURRENT SOUTH WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHWEST BY
MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWEST AT CKV/BNA BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...
SCALED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 06Z AS STORMS OVER AR/WRN
TN WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET HERE. AFTER THAT...SEVERAL WRF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER MO CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THESE
DOWNSTREAM STORMS AND PUSHING THEM INTO MIDDLE TN MAINLY AFTER
06Z. BASED ON THAT...KEPT LOW LIKELY POPS FROM I-65 WEST AFTER
06Z AND LOW CHC POPS OVER THE EAST. LATEST SOUNDING OUT OF BNA
SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND VERY WEAK SHEAR...SO ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND MOVE VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT BECAUSE OF THIS.
UPDATE SENT TO THE WEB ALREADY. ZONE UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CWA CURRENTLY CONVECTION FREE...BUT NEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS WEST TN/EAST AR OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING
DUE TO CURRENT SLOW MOVEMENT AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GUIDANCE
MAKE FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE
INHERITED MENTION OF -TSRA/-SHRA AT ALL AIRPORTS NEAR/AFTER 06Z
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE...WITH PRECIP ENDING BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND CIGS/VIS IMPROVING TO VFR AT CKV/BNA. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AS WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
55
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE EARLIER STORMS AFFECTING MIDDLE
TENNESSEE HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR MOVED OUT OF THE MID STATE
ALTOGETHER, LEAVING US WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND A HUMID
ATMOSPHERE. RADAR SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, BUT THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY
WON`T MAKE IT THIS FAR, WITH THE BULK OF TONIGHT`S PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHES IN
FROM THE NW JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. POP`S WILL
DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY AFTER TOMORROW AS ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOES
PARTIAL DRYING. HOWEVER, NAM DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW NEAR LMK
ASSIMILATING INTO A DEEPER GULF LOW AND FINALLY PULLING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY, SO CAN`T
COMPLETELY WIPE OUT POP`S FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER A DRY, COOLER WEEKEND, LOOK FOR A RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POP`S BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS WE SEE THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A STEEP NW FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
333 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANDREA WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN HEAD EAST
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS MORNING WITH DEEP SE FLOW
IN PLACE BETWEEN A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD/WARM FRONT COMBO TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING AREAS OF BETTER FOCUS WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE SE FLOW CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO
INIT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAD ENVIRONMENT. LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATTM...WITH THIS AREA SPREADING SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING...PUSHING BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE SRN FOOTHILLS OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS BUT GIVEN HIGH FFG/ONLY HIGHER RATES IN SPOTS
WILL HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME SORT OF PRE EVENT
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANDREA. OTHER AXIS OF
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WEST BEHIND THIS
EARLY BATCH AS WEAK ENERGY PUSHES EAST AND TAPS INTO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING WEAK SE
UPSLOPE TO PERSIST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD REGENERATE SHRA SW SO
OVERALL LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION PER EMBEDDED TSRA
DESPITE OVERALL LACK OF CAPE WITHIN THE ENHANCED COOL POOL TODAY.
MOS TEMPS HAVE ALSO TRENDED MUCH LOWER PROVIDED LITTLE INSOLATION
AND MORE PRECIP WHICH SHOULD AID THE EAST/SE FLOW SO TWEAKED
HIGHS DOWN A BIT MORE WITH SOME NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S.
5H TROF TO THE NW STARTS TO DIG SE OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF
ANDREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TOWARD SE NC BY MORNING. IFFY AS
TO JUST WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AXIS OF TROPICAL PWATS IN THE SE.
PENDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANDREA...COULD SEE THE WEST/SW
CTYS GET INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA LATE WITH ONLY SCTD SHRA.
THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE BUT OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY/CAT POPS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHERE BANDS
SET UP ESPCLY LATE. EXPECT A MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUX OF MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ESPCLY EAST WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY FALL BACK A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE DAY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A BLEND OF TRACKS FROM THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC MATCH
CLOSEST TO THE 03Z/06 ADVISORY FROM NHC. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING WILLIS WHARF AROUND 00Z ON THE 8TH AND
THEN UP NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANDREA WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE...HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CLOSE TO COOLER
MET/ECMWF VALUES. WENT WITH THE MILDER MOS LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT LEANING TOWARDS
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY TO BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S
IN THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FOLLOWING WPC AND THE 00Z/ECMWF. UPPER TROF COMING ACROSS
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL BE STALLED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE
FRONT GET PUSHED NORTH BRIEFLY PUTTING FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT DOESNT
GET TOO FAR SOUTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO BEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
COOLER AIR WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWERS HEAD NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR OR
WORSE ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT SOME OF THIS LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHRA TO AFFECT BOTH KROA/KBCB OVERNIGHT WITH LOW END MVFR
TO IFR DEVELOPING BEFORE DAWN. SHRA MAY ALSO CLIP KDAN AND KBLF
BUT THINK CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR A BIT LONGER BEFORE
FALLING INTO MVFR. WONT INCLUDE ANY TSRA MENTION OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE AS LIFT SPREADS
NORTH BY MORNING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY A BETTER THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES
AT MOST LOCATIONS AND SHOULD SEE WINDS STAYING SE ACROSS THE BLUE
RIDGE WHILE THE WINDS TURN MORE SW IN BLF. THIS CONVERGENT SETUP
FAVORS ALL AREAS WITH SHOWERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
AT TIMES. FOR NOW WILL BE PERSISTENT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LEAVE OUT THUNDER EXCEPT FOR A VCTS MENTION IN SPOTS AND GO WITH
AN MVFR FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AGAIN SHOULD SEE SMALLER WINDOWS OF
IFR OR WORSE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
COAST AND GET CAUGHT UP WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING BY FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY OUR EASTERN AREA GETTING AFFECT SO EXPECT POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AT LEAST AT DAN/LYH AND PERHAPS AS
FAR WEST AS BCB/ROA. IN THE WEST THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THINGS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAYBE EARLY MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT
EVEN THOUGH WILL SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP CIGS AT LEAST VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
358 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS EVEN A WEAK LOW SHOWING UP AT
700 MB. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THUS...WENT WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
NAM AND RAP HAVE MUCH STRONGER SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS AROUND 06.18Z. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH CAPE BUILD UP TO AID IN THE STRETCHING OF THIS
VORTICITY AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THIS AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF IT
CAN REMAIN ROOTED ON THIS BOUNDARY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ON FRIDAY...THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...A COLD POCKET OF AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DUE
TO THIS THE 900 TO 800 MB LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 8 AND
8.5 C/KM. DUE TO THIS EXPECT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE EVEN HINTS
THAT THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED INTO THE EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SPEED UP A SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE THE REGION. MODERATE TO
STRONG 300 TO 320K ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS RESULTED IN THE CLOUD COVER MOVING
INTO THE REGION FASTER. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
RAPID INCREASE IN THE FRONTOGENESIS FROM 950 TO 500 MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...AND 700 TO 500 MB ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW
THIS FRONT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WITH THE RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT MANY OF THE
LOWS HAVE BEEN CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE REGION THIS SPRING...PREFER THE
CLOSED LOW SCENARIO THAT THE GFS...GEM...AND ECWMF GENERATE ACROSS
THE REGION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
INTO THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE...SO COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR AHEAD OF
THIS LOW CLIMBS UP TO 50 KNOTS...THE ML CAPES ONLY CLIMB UP TO
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING RIDGING
TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE AS FAST
OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IF THIS DOES INDEED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
ALREADY NOTICED THAT THE ECMWF WAS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE ALL BLEND...SO TRENDED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COLDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT THE RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...A WARM FRONT GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 45 KNOT 850 MB JET WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE 0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 2500 TO
3500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 50 TO 70 KNOT RANGE...SO
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM. DUE TO
THIS...THERE IS CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE OPTED
NOT TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BETWEEN 825 MB AND 650 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ML CAPES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 50 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...
WITH A WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES TO ADDED TO THE THREATS FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING. LIKE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO ADD THIS
THREAT TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A STALLED TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL
PROVIDE THE CONDITIONS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE CONDITIONS COULD BE VARIABLE WITH SOME BOUNCING
AROUND IN THE CIG/VSBY OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF LIFT AND
COOLING. OVERALL...IFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNRISES AND BEGINS TO
WORK ON IMPROVING TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON. A VERY SLOW IMPROVING
TREND SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH
LESS IFR HOURS EACH DAY UPCOMING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW IS ON THE PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER WITH THIS RAIN.
CURRENTLY...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ANALYZED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL IOWA.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE POKING UP INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA PER 04.18Z RAP ANALYSIS. BECAUSE OF THIS...THUNDER
HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CELLS TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN GREATLY LIMITED FROM GREEN BAY WEST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE RAIN HAS NOT LET UP FOR MUCH
OF TODAY.
AS THIS FIRST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATER IN THE EVENING. DEEP LIFT WILL
OCCUR AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH. WHILE THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THAT CAN HEAT UP A BIT. A NARROW CHANNEL
OF 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE DOES APPEAR TO FORM
AHEAD OF THIS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND COULD LEAD TO SOME
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THIS LINE. THIS IS ALL CONDITIONAL UPON
SKIES CLEARING OUT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY UP HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS DECENT AT 40
KTS...BUT IS UNIDIRECTIONAL ALOFT WITH NOT MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ZERO. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRENDING THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE MID TO SURFACE LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE IN WITH IT. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
WHILE THE OVERALL IDEA FOR THE 500MB PATTERN IS SIMILAR GOING INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO
THE REGION...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES OF THIS VORT MAX
BETWEEN THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM. THE 04.12Z ECMWF DIVES THE
TROUGH FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH WHICH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 04.12Z GFS/GEM TAKE THE
TROUGH MORE WEST TO EAST AND KEEPS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHICH SOLUTION
WILL BE CORRECT...THEY ALL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TIMING OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDING ON SUNDAY
THOUGH THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING A TAD SLOWER WITH THE CLEARING.
NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS LIFTS A WARM FRONT
BACK INTO THE REGION. LEFT SOME SMALL CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A COUPLE OF PASSING MID LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING. CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INITIALLY
START OUT VFR...BUT AS THE -SHRA/-RA CONTINUES AND THE LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
THIS EVENING THEN INTO MVFR/IFR FOR LATER TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
INSTABILITY THRU TONIGHT WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH TSRA LOOKING TO BE
ISOLATED. LEFT TSRA/CB MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...BUT IF ONE WAS
TO OCCUR THE TIME OF GREATER CHANCE WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THRU TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ADDED MVFR BR TO KRST AFTER 03Z AND TO KLSE AFTER 08Z. THESE
MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE WED MORNING WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS AND A REMNANT SFC LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
516 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...THIS MORNING
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR DURING THE PAST HOUR. WE EVEN HAD A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE OFFICE. IT APPEARS FROM THE VAD WIND PROFILERS
THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME 700 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE IS 250 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 650 MB AND ELEVATED LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM.
THIS IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NMMM SHOWED A SIMILAR FEATURE 04.15Z...AND IT
KEPT THE AREA STATIONARY AND THEN MOVED IT SLOWLY NORTH. THUS
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AT 3 AM...A 1022 MB HIGH WAS WAS LOCATED OVER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED THE DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY CLIMB OVERNIGHT. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS COMPLEX WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 04.00Z MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
IOWA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE 300-310K ISENTROPIC
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THIS LIFT IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
QUITE A FEW RADAR ECHOS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. HOWEVER WITH THERE BEING QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 750 MB...THESE RADAR ECHOS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY WITH PRECIPITATING TO THE GROUND. SO FAR THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION REPORT THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WAS A SPRINKLE
AT PRESTON MINNESOTA. THINKING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MOISTEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING...AND THAT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...AND THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MODERATE 300-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH 0-3 KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 250 J/KG...THERE MAY BE EVEN A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL AROUND A
HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
ON WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE
300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAPIDLY
WEAKENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THUS EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TAKING
PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ONLY
MOISTURE LEFT WILL BE LOCATED BELOW 850 MB. WITH THERE NOT BEING MUCH
LIFT IN THIS LAYER WAS TEMPTED TO GO DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER WITH MANY OF THE MODELS STILL PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE REGION...DECIDED TO JUST KEEP THE 20 TO 40
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING.
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS THIS SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING...KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN
THE FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A
SURFACE RIDGE IN BOTH MODELS ACROSS THE REGION...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO KEEP WITH TIME PERIOD DRY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
RESULT...JUST WENT WITH THE ALL BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
BROAD AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
KEEP MID LEVEL DECK IN VICINITY WITH LIGHT RAIN MAKING IT THROUGH
DRY AIRMASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERS
THE DAKOTAS...RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EVENING HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS WELL...
SWEEPING THESE SHOWERS INTO AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN...
AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SATURATE UNDER STEADY LIFT...MORE AND MORE
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THUNDER TO
FORECAST BUT IF STRONGER CONVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT CAN HOLD TOGETHER...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WHILE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR
TO DEVELOP AS SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER LOW
GETS CLOSER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TODAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE. THE
RIVER CRESTED AROUND 9.96 FEET ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND IT HAS
BEEN STEADILY FALLING OVERNIGHT. WITH RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW FALL
AND GO BELOW ITS 9 FOOT FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....SHEA
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
952 AM MDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC AND NAM12 SHOWING GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE
CAPES WILL BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS...CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 100-300 J/KG ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE TO ZERO OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO POPS FOR TODAY...DID EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE SLIGHTLY
EAST ONTO THE FRONT RANGE WHERE A SHOWER OR STORM MAY DRIFT OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWERED POPS OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE IT
WILL BE MORE STABLE. FOR THE UPDATE...ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DENVER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
DENVER. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST AND SOUTH. COULD SEE OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS BETWEEN
22 AND 02Z. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND 18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z AND THEN THEY
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM MDT THU JUN 6 2013/
SHORT TERM...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT AS
SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER SWRN CO. LOW LVL WINDS OVER NERN CO
WILL BECOME ENE BY AFTN WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS LIMON. OVERALL CAPES BY AFTN LOOK
TO BE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SO
SHOULD SEE SOME WDLY SCT TSTMS FM THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN CAPES WILL BE AROUND 500 J/KG SO
THERE SHOULD BE WDLY SCT TSTMS IN THE MTNS AS WELL. AS FOR HIGHS
850-700 MB TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
OVER NERN CO.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN KANSAS...WHILE THE NAM
SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE
PATTERN WOULD PRODUCE AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WHICH WOULD HELP IMPORT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE
NAM AND ECMWF SHOW PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF QPF OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY. I WOULD TEND TO GO WITH THE
NAM SINCE I THINK IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SURFACE PATTERN DUE
TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE NAM SOUNDINGS ONLY HAVE
DEWPONTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SEEMS
UNDERDONE FOR THIS PATTERN. THE NAM ALSO SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE LOW
WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES. I DID AN INTERACTIVE SKEW-T ON THE
NAM SOUNDING FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. I BUMPED UP THE
DEWPOINTS TO THE LOW 50S AND RAISED THE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. I CAME UP WITH CAPES FROM 1200 TO 2000 J/KG AN NO CIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN CONSIDERATION...I WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT STILL OVER COLORADO. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE
MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES EITHER. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD SCOUR THE MOISTURE OUT OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. AS
A RESULT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION ON SUNDAY AS IT CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS SHIFTING IT EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A VERY DRY
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL PRODUCE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS SHOWING
HIGH CAPES AND MODERATE SHEAR WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ON THAT DAY. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 11TH IS 95 DEGREES.
THE FORECASTED HIGH IS 93 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
THERE IS A CHANCE THE RECORD COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. IN ADDITION...
FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASED WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.
AVIATION...SFC WINDS ARE DRAINAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND CIRA
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. FOR THIS AFTN SOME CONVECTION WILL DVLP OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS HOWEVER IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE
BY MIDDAY AND THEN MORE ELY BY 22Z. BY EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL
BECOME SELY AND THEN SSW AFT 06Z.
HYDROLOGY...TSTMS THIS AFTN SHOULD STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE BURN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF A STORM WERE TO MOVE OVER THE BURN AREAS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH MAY OCCUR IN LESS THAN 30
MINUTES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....KALINA
UPDATE/AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* EAST-NORTHEAST WIND BECOMING NORTHEAST-NORTH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING AS HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
IL WHICH ARE CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW REGARDING ANY POSSIBLE VIS
RESTRICTIONS. ENOUGH DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT THAT CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY VFR BUT VISIBILITIES MAY DIP INTO MVFR WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT RFD/DPA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. WHILE THE OVERALL
TREND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND TIMING
WILL LIKELY NEED REFINEMENT WITH LATER FORECASTS. COULD BE A
PERIOD FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SOME
GUSTS IN THE 16-20KT RANGE DEVELOP.
AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...IT APPEARS CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT RFD FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
NOT ONLY FOR TIMING BUT ALSO FOR SPECIFIC CIG HEIGHTS. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND FROM 06Z TAFS BUT THESE TOO WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED AS TRENDS EMERGE LATER TODAY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. LAKE BREEZE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY...SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM...LOW PRESSURE HAS REDEVELOPED/CENTERED ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND TO START WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DURING THIS TIME THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG IT MAY
BECOME IS ONLY MEDIUM. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE BUT ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE...FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT BUT COULD INCREASE AGAIN
OR MAINTAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME
CONSENSUS OF A POTENTIAL TRACK FROM WI INTO MI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH NOT ONLY ITS TRACK BUT ALSO ITS STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE LOW. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
906 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE.
* EASTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS/DZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING AS HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
IL WHICH ARE CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW REGARDING ANY POSSIBLE VIS
RESTRICTIONS. ENOUGH DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT THAT CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY VFR BUT VISIBILITIES MAY DIP INTO MVFR WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT RFD/DPA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. WHILE THE OVERALL
TREND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND TIMING
WILL LIKELY NEED REFINEMENT WITH LATER FORECASTS. COULD BE A
PERIOD FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SOME
GUSTS IN THE 16-20KT RANGE DEVELOP.
AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...IT APPEARS CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT RFD FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
NOT ONLY FOR TIMING BUT ALSO FOR SPECIFIC CIG HEIGHTS. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND FROM 06Z TAFS BUT THESE TOO WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED AS TRENDS EMERGE LATER TODAY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS/DZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. LAKE BREEZE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY...SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM...LOW PRESSURE HAS REDEVELOPED/CENTERED ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND TO START WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DURING THIS TIME THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG IT MAY
BECOME IS ONLY MEDIUM. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE BUT ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE...FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT BUT COULD INCREASE AGAIN
OR MAINTAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME
CONSENSUS OF A POTENTIAL TRACK FROM WI INTO MI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH NOT ONLY ITS TRACK BUT ALSO ITS STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE LOW. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
644 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE.
* EASTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THIS
MORNING AS HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
IL WHICH ARE CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW REGARDING ANY POSSIBLE VIS
RESTRICTIONS. ENOUGH DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT THAT CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY VFR BUT VISIBILITIES MAY DIP INTO MVFR WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT RFD/DPA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. WHILE THE OVERALL
TREND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND TIMING
WILL LIKELY NEED REFINEMENT WITH LATER FORECASTS. COULD BE A
PERIOD FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SOME
GUSTS IN THE 16-20KT RANGE DEVELOP.
AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...IT APPEARS CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT RFD FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
NOT ONLY FOR TIMING BUT ALSO FOR SPECIFIC CIG HEIGHTS. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND FROM 06Z TAFS BUT THESE TOO WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED AS TRENDS EMERGE LATER TODAY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. LAKE BREEZE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY...SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM...LOW PRESSURE HAS REDEVELOPED/CENTERED ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND TO START WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DURING THIS TIME THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW STRONG IT MAY
BECOME IS ONLY MEDIUM. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE BUT ITS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF 15-25KTS ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE...FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.
WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT BUT COULD INCREASE AGAIN
OR MAINTAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME
CONSENSUS OF A POTENTIAL TRACK FROM WI INTO MI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH NOT ONLY ITS TRACK BUT ALSO ITS STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE LOW. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THE FIRST WAS AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH TS ANDREA. AS OF 1AM...MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS
1001MB WITH 40KTS SUSTAINED WIND. THIS PALES IN COMPARISON TO THE
MID LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT WAS ROARING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 976MB AND A MUCH
BROADER 40KT WIND FIELD. THE UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PACIFIC CYCLONE WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE THIRD FEATURE OF INTEREST WAS THE FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDED UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT EVIDENT BY THE EXPANSIVE
CLOUD FIELD THAT BLANKETED THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL AS PLAIN VIEW MAPS VIA FROM BOTH THE
RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 0-1KM RH VALUES OF 90-95 PERCENT LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DRYING OUT ACROSS
FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRYING IS SUPPORTED
BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS VIA THE RAP AND NAM12 SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATION EXTENDING UP TO 700MB BY AFTERNOON...INDICATING SOME
DEEPER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. A FEW OF THESE CU
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO HAVE TRENDED THE
HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT THIS DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL FALL
APART QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE BROKEN STRATUS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO AS OF NOW DID CHOSE NOT TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD REFUSES TO VACATE THE AREA WITH ANY EXPEDIENCY AND MAY
FACILITATE ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MN AND WRN
WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF AND SOME SUN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE...ALBEIT UNDER A BROKEN CLOUD
SHIELD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPILL OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN
MN INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED TO A LOT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NAM EXHIBITING ITS NORTHERN BIAS WHILE
THE GFS/GEM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE ECMWF CAME INTO RELATIVELY
DECENT AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH THE 00Z RUNS. BIG DIFFERENCE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS THE LATTER SOLUTION DEVELOPS A STOUT
SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SERN SD OR SWRN MN SATURDAY
EVENING. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESE FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR
SRN MN OR NRN IA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
GFS AND GEM QPF FIELDS SHOW PRECIP BREAKING OUT JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AND CONFINED
FURTHER WEST DUE TO WEAKER/FURTHER WEST 850 MB JET. MAINTAINED
HIGH POPS ACROSS WRN MN...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF INTO WRN WI GIVEN
THAT THIS IS JUST A RECENT TREND. THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER FAR SRN MN WILL OCCLUDE AND SLOWLY TRACK ESE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES.
THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS FAR SRN MN. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WARM FRONT THAT
CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH LONG...LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND LOW
LCL/S. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE. IF THERE IS AT LEAST MODEST CAPE...COULD SEE A TORNADO
THREAT DEVELOP.
THIS SYSTEM REMINDS ME OF A WINTER STORM THIS PAST YEAR...COMPLETE
WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-94 SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. IT AGAIN BEGS THE QUESTION...WHAT MONTH IS
THIS?
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS COULD FOLLOW SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW
SLOWLY IT TAKES THE LOW TO PULL OUT. IF IT IS CLOUDY AND
RAINY...WE CAN PROBABLY HACK 10 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS ARE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID/LATE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WX TO
MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
IFR OR LOWER CIGS ARE IN PLACE AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME ACROSS SRN MN
AND WRN WI. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING
MVFR LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION.
KMSP...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z...THEN TO MVFR
AROUND 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH ON CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY VERY WELL MAY REMAIN BELOW 017. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS LGT/VAR.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 15G25KT.
SUN...MVFR LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRB
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HAS BROUGHT OVERCAST
SKIES WITH WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOL SIDE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK COUNTIES. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH RECENT SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST CENTER GUIDANCE
ALL POINT TOWARD RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE SREF PLUME GUIDANCE SHOWS
A FEW MEMBERS AS HIGH A TWO TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES. THIS RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE AREA CREEKS AND STEAMS TO RISE ALONG WITH SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IN URBAN AREAS.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS TWO FOCUS AREAS OF WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL IN BETWEEN. ONE IS LOCATED PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THE OTHER IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE
AREAS OF RAIN MATCH UP WELL WITH RAP MODEL 850MB 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
PLACEMENT WHICH IS PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THIS MORNINGS 12Z BUF RAOB SHOWED A SATURATED PROFILE THROUGH THE
COLUMN WITH 1.3 INCH PWAT. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AIRMASS
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS PWATS OF 1.5
INCH AND HIGHER. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AS LEADING
AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IS WEAKENING. THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP A LID ON
TEMPS WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 60S.
LOOKING UPSTREAM FOR SOME SIGN OF WHEN RAIN WILL TAPER OFF...THE
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THIS WITH THE RADAR LOOP PLACES THE BACK EDGE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 00Z. UNTIL THEN EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVIER POCKETS ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER
WESTERN NY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN AFTER WE SEE THE STEADIER
RAINFALL TAPERING OFF WE CAN EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOIST
PLUME WHICH HAS FORMED INTO A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE EXTENDING
BACK INTO INDIANA. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS WOULD
CALL FOR RAIN TO END OR TAPER OFF CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS WNY THEN
EARLY MORNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THICK CLOUD
COVER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RAIN WILL SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY...
HOWEVER MOST 00Z MODELS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH WHICH WILL LIKELY PROLONG THE STEADIER RAIN PATTERN ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
RICH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA LOOKS TO BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST
THETA-E AIR LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY LIMITED
IMPACT TO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS SYSTEM DOES BEARS WATCHING AS A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK WOULD BRING GREATER CONCERNS FOR HEAVIER RAINS
TO A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT SLOWLY
ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR
MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOR BELOW NORMAL READING WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A PERIOD OF AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. WHILE A IT IS A FAIRLY NARROW
WINDOW...CONSENSUS HAS CONSISTENTLY POINTED TO SUNDAY AS THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND
+12C BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES. LOCAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE LAKESHORES QUITE A BIT COOLER.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO YET ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WHICH WILL DIG
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER
DYNAMIC...AND WILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT TO
WORK WITH. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EUROPEAN/GGEM DOES NOT
DIG QUITE AS DEEP WITH THIS TROF...WHICH KEEPS THE COLDER AIR TO THE
NORTH MORE SO THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BECAUSE OF THIS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MORE SEASONABLE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND MONDAY. THIS TROF AXIS IS LIKELY TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TODAY WITH MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CIGS. REMOVED VCTS FROM THE
TAF AS ANY LINGERING LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE NOW MOVED EAST OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY. WITH BRISK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
DOWNSLOPING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS BUT TEMPO IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAINS. THE BULK
OF THE STEADY RAINS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
00Z. ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ONCE
THE STEADIER RAINFALL ENDS. SOME INCLUSION OF A TREND TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST CONDITIONS TODAY OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES BETWEEN THE NIAGARA RIVER AND HAMLIN
BEACH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE AND ALONG
THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER. ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ030-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL COMBINE TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVES QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A SHADE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS CLEARLY SHOW THE
VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...UNDERNEATH A RATHER AMPLIFIED HIGH-
LATITUDE RIDGE. THESE SAME LOOPS AND ACCOMPANYING IR LOOPS ALSO
CLEARLY SHOW A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY /CURRENTLY IN ERN MO AND WRN IL/ IN A BELT OF STRONGER
WSWLY FLOW IN THE LARGER SCALE/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH BISECTS IOWA AND MISSOURI. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN
IL/ERN MO SHORTWAVE...LOCAL RADAR VWPS AND REFLECTIVITY LOOPS HAVE
CLEARLY CAPTURED THE PASSAGE OF A MORE SUBTLE/WEAK WAVE THROUGH
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH KILN VWP DATA SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL
BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LAST EVENING AND NOW VEERING IN
RECENT HOURS /SINCE 04Z/ AS THE WAVE PASSES. THIS WAVE HAS ALLOWED
FOR A RENEWED SPATE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTL/SCNTL OHIO WITH
IMPRESSIVE RAIN RATES /1.05" AT KCMH IN ABOUT 30 MIN/ AND JUST A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE ACTIVITY NOW FOCUSES MORE ON NERN
OH.
THE 06.00Z KILN RAOB WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 150 J/KG AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN
25KTS...WHICH EXPLAINS THE OVERALL POOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION
SEEN TONIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR /MOIST ADIABATIC/ AND
PWAT MEASURED A HEALTHY 1.31" - ABOUT 125% OF EARLY JUNE NORMALS.
PROBABLY OF MOST IMPORTANCE WAS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT HAS BEEN DRIFTING NW THROUGH OH SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND THIS APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED OUT RIGHT ALONG OR
JUST TO THE EAST OF I-71 FROM NEAR KCVG TO KILN TO KCMH TO JUST
NORTH OF KCAK. IT IS IN THIS VICINITY THAT STORMS HAVE FLARED
TONIGHT WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VASTLY MORE MOIST
AIRMASS FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY ON WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW.
ATTENDANT TO THE WRN IL/ERN MO WAVE...WAS A HEALTHY CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING INTO WRN KY WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHRA AND
COOLING CLOUD TOPS NORTH OF THERE INDICATING ASCENT IS SPREADING
OUR WAY FOR TODAY.
LAST 3-4 RUNS OF NCEP RAP /WITH AGREEMENT FROM MORE ADVANCED ESRL
RAP/ IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT FORCING FOR UVM WITH THE IL/MO
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO THE TRI STATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG/SOUTH OF I-71
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. HIGHER RES HRRR RUNS RECENTLY HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BULLISH - FOCUSING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINK THIS
SIGNAL MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG - BUT GIVEN THE DRAPED OUT
BOUNDARY...THE APPROACHING WAVE...AND DEEPER MOISTURE THERE COULD
BE SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LINE
UP THIS MORNING. NCEP HIRES-WINDOW RUNS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH NOR
ARE OTHER CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE RAP/HRRR AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING TO BRING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SRN AREAS. LESSER
CHANCES NORTH. BY LATER AFTERNOON MUCH OF THIS LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HAVE EXITED - BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL
DRAPED...AND RESIDUAL WEAK WAVES IN BROAD SWLY FLOW...STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP AT PEAK HEATING INTO THE EVENING ESP ON SRN FLANK OF
DEPARTING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
DEEP LAYER FLOW IS MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION /35KTS OF BULK
SHEAR/ BUT ENOUGH SREF SIGNAL IS THERE FOR PROBS THAT A FEW
UPDRAFTS COULD BE STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE SOUTH /THINKING
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER/ FOR A WIND THREAT. NOT AS SOLD ON A HAIL
THREAT WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENV AND WEAK INSTBY.
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON TEMPS TODAY BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN TO GET US INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE MORNING
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY HOLD US BACK HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER US TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH MUCH LESS LARGER SCALE FORCING. DESPITE
THAT...THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED DEEPER MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS/FEW STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME. THE CHARACTER OF THE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...EVEN INTO SATURDAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS ALL 3 DAYS MOSTLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
THINK BY SATURDAY - THE FORCING SIGNAL AND LOW LEVEL FOCI FOR
CONVECTION ARE TOO MUTED TO CONTINUE A RAIN CHANCE...THOUGH
DEEPER MOISTURE STILL LINGERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BRING A BREAK TO PRECIP...WITH STRONG
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SC AND SW CONUS...SO THAT A VIGOROUS
TROUGH TO APPROACH THE REGION SUN EVENING LOOKS TO BRING AN ACTIVE
GREAT LAKES PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES RIDE OVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN AN ACTIVE PRECIP PATTERN AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS UNDER NW FLOW. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEVELOPS
IN NW-SE FASHION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL
BE AN ACTIVE MCS ZONE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG BEFORE TROUGHING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WAVE LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY
IS MOVING IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE PCPN APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY
SHOWERS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LINGERING
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW
MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY HELP KEEP
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS A BIT MORE ISOLATED SO WILL JUST HANG ON
TO A VCTS TO COVER THE THREAT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD THEN LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. IF WE ARE ABLE TO
GET ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE SOME BR
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1008 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANDREA WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN HEAD EAST
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY NEAR A LINE FROM
RADFORD VA TO MONETA VA. THIS TRAILING END OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 BY NOON. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH NOON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE GAPS IN
IT...AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE REGION WHICH IS OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE.
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS MORNING WITH DEEP SE FLOW
IN PLACE BETWEEN A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD/WARM FRONT COMBO TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING AREAS OF BETTER FOCUS WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE SE FLOW CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO
INIT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAD ENVIRONMENT. LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATTM...WITH THIS AREA SPREADING SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING...PUSHING BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE SRN FOOTHILLS OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS BUT GIVEN HIGH FFG/ONLY HIGHER RATES IN SPOTS
WILL HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME SORT OF PRE EVENT
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANDREA. OTHER AXIS OF
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WEST BEHIND THIS
EARLY BATCH AS WEAK ENERGY PUSHES EAST AND TAPS INTO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING WEAK SE
UPSLOPE TO PERSIST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD REGENERATE SHRA SW SO
OVERALL LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION PER EMBEDDED TSRA
DESPITE OVERALL LACK OF CAPE WITHIN THE ENHANCED COOL POOL TODAY.
MOS TEMPS HAVE ALSO TRENDED MUCH LOWER PROVIDED LITTLE INSOLATION
AND MORE PRECIP WHICH SHOULD AID THE EAST/SE FLOW SO TWEAKED
HIGHS DOWN A BIT MORE WITH SOME NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S.
5H TROF TO THE NW STARTS TO DIG SE OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF
ANDREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TOWARD SE NC BY MORNING. IFFY AS
TO JUST WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AXIS OF TROPICAL PWATS IN THE SE.
PENDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANDREA...COULD SEE THE WEST/SW
CTYS GET INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA LATE WITH ONLY SCTD SHRA.
THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE BUT OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY/CAT POPS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHERE BANDS
SET UP ESPCLY LATE. EXPECT A MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUX OF MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ESPCLY EAST WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY FALL BACK A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE DAY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A BLEND OF TRACKS FROM THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC MATCH
CLOSEST TO THE 03Z/06 ADVISORY FROM NHC. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING WILLIS WHARF AROUND 00Z ON THE 8TH AND
THEN UP NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANDREA WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE...HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CLOSE TO COOLER
MET/ECMWF VALUES. WENT WITH THE MILDER MOS LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT LEANING TOWARDS
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY TO BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S
IN THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FOLLOWING WPC AND THE 00Z/ECMWF. UPPER TROF COMING ACROSS
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL BE STALLED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE
FRONT GET PUSHED NORTH BRIEFLY PUTTING FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT DOESNT
GET TOO FAR SOUTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO BEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
COOLER AIR WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EDT THURSDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
AS SHOWERS PERSIST OVER MOST TAF LOCATIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ESPCLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL OCCUR UNDER LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO LIFR AS WELL AROUND KROA THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPCLY THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT. GIVEN STABLE
CONDITIONS...WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER EXCEPT FOR A VCTS MENTION IN
SPOTS MAINLY AROUND KBLF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING BUT RETURN OVER THE SE LATE AS TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA HEADS RAPIDLY NE ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY BE TOO FAR
EAST TO BRING HEAVIER RAIN BACK INTO KDAN/KLYH BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SHOWER MENTION OVERNIGHT. ELSW...LOW CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW
LOW CIGS WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE PROJECTING IFR TO LIFR ONCE THE
SHOWERS TAPER SO BASICALLY FOLLOWED AND INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LOW
CONDITIONS WITH SOME ADDED FOG AROUND AS WELL.
ANDREA TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY ALLOWING
GRADUAL DRYING ALOFT TO WORK IN FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT STILL ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WILL BE
HARD TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EXPECTING A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN CIGS WITH
POTENTIAL VFR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SITES BY LATE IN THE DAY
DESPITE SOME LINGERING SHRA AROUND.
THINGS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAYBE EARLY
MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT
EVEN THOUGH WILL SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP CIGS AT LEAST VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
716 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANDREA WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN HEAD EAST
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS MORNING WITH DEEP SE FLOW
IN PLACE BETWEEN A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD/WARM FRONT COMBO TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING AREAS OF BETTER FOCUS WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE SE FLOW CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO
INIT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAD ENVIRONMENT. LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATTM...WITH THIS AREA SPREADING SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING...PUSHING BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE SRN FOOTHILLS OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS BUT GIVEN HIGH FFG/ONLY HIGHER RATES IN SPOTS
WILL HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME SORT OF PRE EVENT
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANDREA. OTHER AXIS OF
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WEST BEHIND THIS
EARLY BATCH AS WEAK ENERGY PUSHES EAST AND TAPS INTO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING WEAK SE
UPSLOPE TO PERSIST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD REGENERATE SHRA SW SO
OVERALL LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION PER EMBEDDED TSRA
DESPITE OVERALL LACK OF CAPE WITHIN THE ENHANCED COOL POOL TODAY.
MOS TEMPS HAVE ALSO TRENDED MUCH LOWER PROVIDED LITTLE INSOLATION
AND MORE PRECIP WHICH SHOULD AID THE EAST/SE FLOW SO TWEAKED
HIGHS DOWN A BIT MORE WITH SOME NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S.
5H TROF TO THE NW STARTS TO DIG SE OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF
ANDREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TOWARD SE NC BY MORNING. IFFY AS
TO JUST WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AXIS OF TROPICAL PWATS IN THE SE.
PENDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANDREA...COULD SEE THE WEST/SW
CTYS GET INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA LATE WITH ONLY SCTD SHRA.
THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE BUT OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY/CAT POPS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHERE BANDS
SET UP ESPCLY LATE. EXPECT A MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUX OF MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ESPCLY EAST WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY FALL BACK A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE DAY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A BLEND OF TRACKS FROM THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC MATCH
CLOSEST TO THE 03Z/06 ADVISORY FROM NHC. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING WILLIS WHARF AROUND 00Z ON THE 8TH AND
THEN UP NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANDREA WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE...HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CLOSE TO COOLER
MET/ECMWF VALUES. WENT WITH THE MILDER MOS LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT LEANING TOWARDS
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY TO BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S
IN THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FOLLOWING WPC AND THE 00Z/ECMWF. UPPER TROF COMING ACROSS
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL BE STALLED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE
FRONT GET PUSHED NORTH BRIEFLY PUTTING FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT DOESNT
GET TOO FAR SOUTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO BEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
COOLER AIR WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EDT THURSDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
AS SHOWERS PERSIST OVER MOST TAF LOCATIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ESPCLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL OCCUR UNDER LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO LIFR AS WELL AROUND KROA THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPCLY THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT. GIVEN STABLE
CONDITIONS...WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER EXCEPT FOR A VCTS MENTION IN
SPOTS MAINLY AROUND KBLF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING BUT RETURN OVER THE SE LATE AS TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA HEADS RAPIDLY NE ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY BE TOO FAR
EAST TO BRING HEAVIER RAIN BACK INTO KDAN/KLYH BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SHOWER MENTION OVERNIGHT. ELSW...LOW CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW
LOW CIGS WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE PROJECTING IFR TO LIFR ONCE THE
SHOWERS TAPER SO BASICALLY FOLLOWED AND INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LOW
CONDITIONS WITH SOME ADDED FOG AROUND AS WELL.
ANDREA TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY ALLOWING
GRADUAL DRYING ALOFT TO WORK IN FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT STILL ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WILL BE
HARD TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EXPECTING A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN CIGS WITH
POTENTIAL VFR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SITES BY LATE IN THE DAY
DESPITE SOME LINGERING SHRA AROUND.
THINGS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAYBE EARLY
MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT
EVEN THOUGH WILL SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP CIGS AT LEAST VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
616 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS EVEN A WEAK LOW SHOWING UP AT
700 MB. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THUS...WENT WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
NAM AND RAP HAVE MUCH STRONGER SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS AROUND 06.18Z. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH CAPE BUILD UP TO AID IN THE STRETCHING OF THIS
VORTICITY AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THIS AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF IT
CAN REMAIN ROOTED ON THIS BOUNDARY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ON FRIDAY...THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...A COLD POCKET OF AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DUE
TO THIS THE 900 TO 800 MB LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 8 AND
8.5 C/KM. DUE TO THIS EXPECT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE EVEN HINTS
THAT THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED INTO THE EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SPEED UP A SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE THE REGION. MODERATE TO
STRONG 300 TO 320K ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS RESULTED IN THE CLOUD COVER MOVING
INTO THE REGION FASTER. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
RAPID INCREASE IN THE FRONTOGENESIS FROM 950 TO 500 MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...AND 700 TO 500 MB ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW
THIS FRONT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WITH THE RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT MANY OF THE
LOWS HAVE BEEN CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE REGION THIS SPRING...PREFER THE
CLOSED LOW SCENARIO THAT THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF GENERATE ACROSS
THE REGION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
INTO THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE...SO COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR AHEAD OF
THIS LOW CLIMBS UP TO 50 KNOTS...THE ML CAPES ONLY CLIMB UP TO
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING RIDGING
TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE AS FAST
OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IF THIS DOES INDEED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
ALREADY NOTICED THAT THE ECMWF WAS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE ALL BLEND...SO TRENDED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COLDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT THE RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...A WARM FRONT GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 45 KNOT 850 MB JET WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE 0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 2500 TO
3500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 50 TO 70 KNOT RANGE...SO
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM. DUE TO
THIS...THERE IS CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE OPTED
NOT TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BETWEEN 825 MB AND 650 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ML CAPES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 50 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...
WITH A WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES TO ADDED TO THE THREATS FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING. LIKE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO ADD THIS
THREAT TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE FOG THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING BOTH TAF SITES HAS SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH AS THE WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CEILINGS ARE PREDOMINANTLY STILL IFR BUT STARTING TO SHOW SOME
HOLES DEVELOPING IN THIS ALLOWING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANT AT BOTH SITES. THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION SO LOOK FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH TO COVER THIS. THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THE QUESTION BECOMES
WHAT THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL DO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN THE 06.06Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
MAKE IT INTO KLSE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LIGHT WIND
FLOW...CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN IS VERY LOW. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AS AREAS OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THAT WERE UNDER THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPERIENCED IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT SO WILL GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
332 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA LOCATED WITHIN A BAND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM TAMPA TO NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE SW
FLORIDA GULF COAST. THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THIS BANDING
FEATURE AND ANY ADDITIONAL ROTATING CELLS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF IT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS ANDREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECENT BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS LED TO
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH
COULD TRANSLATE TO STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE STRONGER
ROTATION HAS REMAINED NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THUS FAR. HOWEVER...THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SRN FL PENINSULA AS THIS BANDING FEATURE APPROACHES AND MOVES
ASHORE FROM GLADES TO COLLIER COUNTIES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITIES HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...INDICATES THAT IT WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TOTAL MODEL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO LOWER WITHIN THIS LATEST MODEL CYCLE...WHICH
HAS DECREASED THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FLOOD CONCERNS.
THEREFORE...WE WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS WITH NO
EXTENSION ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS ANDREA
QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT
THIS AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE 1.8 TO 2.2" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUING. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO H7 OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...THIS RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTING BACK TO THE ESE. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD...THEN INLAND AND OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE PENINSULA COME SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AS A
RESULT...CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NORMAL WITH DRIER AIR
SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST. WILL REFLECT THIS IN
THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH MAINLY ISLTD/SCT AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
BNB
&&
.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND RESULTANT LARGE SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS...HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS AND
SEAS.
ALONG THE GULF COAST...REPORTS INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS AROUND THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AT NOON TODAY DID NOT GENERATE ANY COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE NAPLES COAST. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT NAPLES INDICATED
WATER LEVELS REMAINING AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS DEVIATION
FROM NORMAL SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANDREA
QUICKLY LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD ALSO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE BEGINNING TONIGHT...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WEAKER
RIP CURRENTS AND SMALLER SURF ALONG THE GULF COAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS ANDREA QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 87 75 86 / 60 70 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 86 76 87 / 60 70 50 40
MIAMI 77 87 76 89 / 60 70 50 40
NAPLES 76 84 75 87 / 60 60 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL COLLIER-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER.
RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT-TERM/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
LONG TERM...BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
134 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
331 AM CDT
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE JUST HOW MUCH COVERAGE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND THEN THUNDER CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO A FUN CHALLENGE ARE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IN AREAS UNDER LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAD MOVED EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW PHASING WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER ONTARIO.
ALTOGETHER THIS IS MAKING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THAT EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH TRAILS BACK OVER IA. A JET MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE IA/MO BORDER. SATURATION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SIMPLY JUST MOISTURE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO ABOVE 850MB OVER THE AREA AND THAT TREND CONTINUES
INTO TODAY...WITH A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING. REFLECTIVITY HAS MAINLY
BEEN BELOW 35 DBZ...YET THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT OCCASIONALLY PICK
UP 0.05/HR OR SO. THE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY RUNS INTO DRIER AIR
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR AND LOCAL ARW GUIDANCE HAVE
MATCHED WELL TO WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE FORCING IS MORE DIFFUSE...WHICH ITS MAINLY
BEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH. LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN WHILE A SMALL THUNDER
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. LOW INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO EXIST
ON THE TROUGH WHERE TDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60...WITH EVEN
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE FORECAST IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO THE FORECAST MID
70S. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER SE MN YESTERDAY
DID PRODUCE A BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORECAST STRETCHING PARAMETERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ARE MARGINAL...AND THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HOLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN NORTHEAST
IL UNDER THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST SYNOPTIC WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL HELP THAT CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MUCH
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO REMAIN BELOW 70 TODAY...WITH EVEN
UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE PROBABLE...AND FAVORED BY LOCAL
RESEARCH FOR NORTHEAST FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST AND WANE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CU FIELD AWAY FROM THE LAKE GIVEN
THE LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE COOL...WITH
UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN OUTLYING AREAS OF CHICAGO AND THE CWA.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER CLOSING
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH DEVELOPS ON A NORTHWEST JET BY
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VARIANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN
WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT THE DPROG/DT THERE HAS BEEN A
SETTLING ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IN THE IA/SOUTHERN MN
REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLANK OF THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE
VARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE
FOR SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS DECENT FOR POSSIBLE ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
RETURN IS REALLY LIMITED IN TIME AS THIS SYSTEM COMES RUSHING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND NUMEROUS DAYS OF NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE LIKELY
POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL NEED REFINING IN TIME AS RAIN WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ALL DAY.
BEYOND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST MOVES OUR WAY ALTHOUGH DAMPENS IN THE PROCESS. AN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE GENERAL REGION
WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE FOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GET TOO
FANCY WITH POPS OR READ INTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC RUN TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
206 PM CDT
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SINK
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO TROPICAL STORM ANDREA OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT...CREATING
SPEEDS AROUND 15-20KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THAT A FEW AREAS OVER THE
LAKE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THEN A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL ELONGATE AND
STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS RIDGE CENTER
WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND STRETCH
SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEN A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION LATE
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO
AROUND 10KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUN AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH AN INCREASING
GRADIENT. AT THIS POINT WINDS SUN AFTERNOON COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
15-25KT...THEN THIS GRADIENT WILL PUSH NORTH. CONFIDENCE ON THE
PRECISE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE IS LOW WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR A GENERALLY PATH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE IS MORE PROBABLE.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND A COUPLE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITH
THE FIRST ONE AFFECTING US LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ANOTHER ONE
TOWARDS DAY 7.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY EXITED OUR REGION.
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING ACROSS OUR REGION AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO OHIO. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A LITTLE
BIT OF CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARDS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW THE
AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE SOME.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES ONLY MINIMAL REDEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY
THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO GO WITH 20 PERCENT POPS MOST
AREAS EXCEPT A LITTLE HIGHER WEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO LAFAYETTE LINE
AS RAPID REFRESH INDICATES A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED 245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
MODELS MOVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING
AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL MENTION A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.
MODELS MOVE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION. AIRMASS BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE AND WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS SUNDAY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS AS A MOS BLEND SEEMS
REASONABLE. MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING DETAILS BUT GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED. SAW NO REASON TO
ALTER ALLBLEND. A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THAT MOST
DAYS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR STORMS AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN AND
SMALL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO OCCASIONALLY SPARK CONVECTION.
LESSER CHANCES IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS A BIT STRONGER
THAN IT DOES LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOKED NEAR
AVERAGE WITH PERHAPS SOME WARMING NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 061800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
2030Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...
SHOULD SEE SOME CU START TO FORM ACROSS THE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT HRRR AND RAP SHOW ONLY ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THUS WILL PULL OUT VCTS AND JUST KEEP THE AREA DRY AND VFR THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. TIME HEIGHTS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS SO WILL INCLUDE MVFR SOMETIME
AFTER 9Z AND PROBABLY THROUGH 15Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND A COUPLE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITH
THE FIRST ONE AFFECTING US LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ANOTHER ONE
TOWARDS DAY 7.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY EXITED OUR REGION.
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING ACROSS OUR REGION AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO OHIO. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A LITTLE
BIT OF CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARDS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW THE
AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE SOME.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES ONLY MINIMAL REDEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY
THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I AM INCLINED TO GO WITH 20 PERCENT POPS MOST
AREAS EXCEPT A LITTLE HIGHER WEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO LAFAYETTE LINE
AS RAPID REFRESH INDICATES A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED 245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
MODELS MOVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING
AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL MENTION A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.
MODELS MOVE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION. AIRMASS BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE AND WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS SUNDAY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS AS A MOS BLEND SEEMS
REASONABLE. MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING DETAILS BUT GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED. SAW NO REASON TO
ALTER ALLBLEND. A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER THAT MOST
DAYS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR STORMS AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN AND
SMALL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO OCCASIONALLY SPARK CONVECTION.
LESSER CHANCES IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE LOOKS A BIT STRONGER
THAN IT DOES LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOKED NEAR
AVERAGE WITH PERHAPS SOME WARMING NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 061800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOULD SEE SOME CU START TO FORM ACROSS THE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT HRRR AND RAP SHOW ONLY ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THUS WILL PULL OUT VCTS AND JUST KEEP THE AREA DRY AND VFR THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. TIME HEIGHTS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS SO WILL INCLUDE MVFR SOMETIME
AFTER 9Z AND PROBABLY THROUGH 15Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AND THEN PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY. AFTERWARD...SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT THIS
AREA SHOULD MOVE ON TO THE SOUTHEAST. LEAVING MOST AREAS UNDER
CHANCE POPS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES DRIER AIR ALONG HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SOME HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST.
MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION. NAM TWO METER TEMPERATURES INDICATE NEAR
80 TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THESE WILL PROVIDE WEAK FORCING AS
MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. WITH JUST WEAK FORCING
WILL ONLY GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING/AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN ANY INSTABILITY IS
HIGHEST.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY...MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED. WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A SHOWER...FEEL CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION.
UNCERTAINTY ARISES SATURDAY NIGHT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO LEAVE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST.
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR HIGHS...WENT COOLER THAN MAV MOS MOST
AREAS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA ON THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS A DOME OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. POCKETS OF UPPER
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN THE HIGHEST POPS THEN.
BUT...WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO SETTLE TOO FAR SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...LEFT AT LEAST SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED.
REGIONAL ALLBLEND HAD NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED...WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND. WITH THE FORECAST AREA
LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT BY SUNDAY...PREFER AT OR BELOW
ALLBLEND...BUT WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 061800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
SHOULD SEE SOME CU START TO FORM ACROSS THE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT HRRR AND RAP SHOW ONLY ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THUS
WILL PULL OUT VCTS AND JUST KEEP THE AREA DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. TIME HEIGHTS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS SO WILL INCLUDE MVFR
SOMETIME AFTER 9Z AND PROBABLY THROUGH 15Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS IN LT PORTION
NWS HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SMALL
IN SIZE AND RADAR HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF ANY SPRINKLES WITH THEM.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW MIGHT FALL SHORT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
THE HRRR AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
HINT OF THEM AT THIS TIME...BUT A FEW OF THE CUMULUS ELEMENTS SEEM
TO BE GAINING SOME SIZE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE FRAMES.
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA AND THE CUMULUS ARE FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE. WILL
REMOVE THE SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE MOST OF THE CUMULUS FIELD IS FROM DAY TIME HEATING THE
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SOME MOISTURE THAT LINGERS IN THE MID LEVELS DURING THE
NIGHT AND WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL WILL
IT GET WITH CLOUDS AROUND. WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS
LAST NIGHT IF THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
SKY COVER TOMORROW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. WITH
THAT IN MIND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HIGHS TODAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BRING IN ENOUGH
WARM ADVECTION TO WARM THINGS VERY MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ALOFT: AFTER THE LAST 15 DAYS OF SUPPRESSED WESTERLIES AND THE
MEAN TROF IN THE WRN USA...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THE NEXT 7
DAYS THAT WILL ESTABLISHE A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND TROFS ON BOTH
COASTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH N OF HAWAII...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE E PAC SAT AND PARK OVER TX BY TUE.
IN THE MEANTIME...A POTENT SHRTWV TROF AND 120 KT ULJ ATOP THE HIGH
WILL PRECEDE IT SAT AND ARRIVE HERE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE HIGH
OVER TX AND LOWERING HGTS OVER THE E PAC WILL SEND THE CUT-OFF LOW
/CURRENTLY OFF SRN CA/ NE...ROUNDING THE RIDGE TUE. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN REBUILD OVER THE REGION WED-THU.
SFC: AS LOW PRES TRACKS THRU MT-ND...A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NGT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COOL FRONT SAT.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM NW-SE ACROSS NEB AND KS SUN-TUE AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON ITS COOL SIDE. AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CREST THE RIDGE...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE E
ALONG THE FRONT TUE NGT INTO W. IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT WILL DROP A
LITTLE FARTHER S BUT ITS WRN EDGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TIED TO A
LEE LOW OVER NE CO.
HAZARDS: TSTMS ARE LIKELY SAT. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS ON SVR. THEN
WE NEED TO WATCH FOR MCS ACTIVITY MON-WED...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NGT: FCST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TERMINATES. THIS HAS
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MESOSCALE FORCING AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. MODEL QPFS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE 00Z AND
12Z UKMET INDICATING AN MCS...THE GFS/NAM/GEM LARGELY DRY AND THE
LAST 3 EC CYCLES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
NAM MUCAPE 600 J/KG. 1-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
THREAT FOR SVR.
SAT: IF AN MCS DOES AFFECT PART OF THE FCST AREA FRI NGT...THIS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON WHAT OCCURS SAT AFTN/EVNG. FOR NOW
HAVE TREATED THE TWO PERIODS SEPARATELY...AS IF THEY WILL NOT
AFFECT EACH OTHER. THE COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH A NARROW WARM SECTOR.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE GONE 4-6F WARMER THAN THE 4 AM GID FCST FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CINH WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. ANY LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/RAIN IN THE MRNG AND FCST TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM IN THOSE
AREAS.
SEVERE: STRENGTHENING MID-UPR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL INCREASE
0-5 KM SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES ...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ONE OF THE MORE CONCERNING
ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THAT THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC WIND
WILL BE NORMAL TO THE COOL FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS AND
LESS CLUSTERING. 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 150 M2/S2 SUGGESTS
TORNADO POTENTIAL...HIGHEST NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. IT DOES APPEAR
THE TRIPLE PT COULD BE JUST NE OF THE FCST AREA /MAYBE NEAR OFK?/.
NAM MLCAPE HAS INCREASED 24 HRS AGO AND NOW OFFERS 1000-2000 J/KG
BEFORE ITS CONVECTIVE SCHEME KICKS IN. CLUSTERING OF MODELED HEAVIER
QPF IS BEST ALONG AND E OF HWY 281 WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FRONTAL
TIMING.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
/NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING/ COULD COMPENSATE FOR
LESS THAN IDEAL THERMODYNAMICS /IE SFC DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
60S/.
SAT NGT: CLEARING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST IF THE STRONGER EC IS RIGHT.
SUN: THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND! EXCELLENT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LGT WINDS. THE 00Z/12Z EC DOES SUGGEST A SHWR
OR TWO FROM FULLERTON-OSCEOLA NEB.
MON-WED: WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX.
IN THE WARM SECTOR...SUNNY AND HOT. ON THE COOL
SIDE...P/CLOUDY...MAYBE M/CLOUDY AT TIMES?...WITH THE THREAT OF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MRNG MCS ACTIVITY. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH WE HAVE
NOTED THAT THE GEM/GFS/EC HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THEIR TSTM
CLUSTERS.
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE FOR FCST HEADACHES ON TEMPS AND PCPN
POTENTIAL. THE WAA/CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE MCS ACTIVITY OCCURS. THIS IN AND OF ITSELF
WILL REINFORCE/MODULATE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. THE
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN MCS ACTIVITY AND THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAP WILL
BE VERY SHARP. THESE ARE DETAILS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE.
USE THE FCST WITH CAUTION NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE/VE INDICATED TIME
PERIODS OF LOW POPS AND OTHER PERIODS DRY...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE IF
WE GET AN MCS ROLLING THRU HERE. AGAIN...AM NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
SUCH LOW POPS/DRY FCST. IT/S JUST TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF/WHEN/WHERE
TSTMS WILL OCCUR.
HVY RAIN: THIS SETUP WARRANTS CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
BACK-BUILDING CELL CONFIGURATIONS IF MCS ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES.
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW...THU IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW.
HEAT: PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS COULD SEE A 4-DAY HEATWAVE /90F OR
MORE/ BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUN. 100F IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR 1 OR 2 DAYS AT BEAVER CITY-PHILLIPSBURG- PLAINVILLE KS. WE
COULD SEE THIS HEAT EXPAND INTO S-CNTRL NEB TUE IF THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK N.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SPREAD INTO THE KGRI TERMINAL
AREA. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND START TO
BREAK UP THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN THE MID LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THAT IT
WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW TIMES WHEN
IT MAY GO BROKEN. EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS TO FORM AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
341 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SMALL
IN SIZE AND RADAR HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF ANY SPRINKLES WITH THEM.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW MIGHT FALL SHORT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
THE HRRR AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
HINT OF THEM AT THIS TIME...BUT A FEW OF THE CUMULUS ELEMENTS SEEM
TO BE GAINING SOME SIZE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE FRAMES.
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA AND THE CUMULUS ARE FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE. WILL
REMOVE THE SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE MOST OF THE CUMULUS FIELD IS FROM DAY TIME HEATING THE
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SOME MOISTURE THAT LINGERS IN THE MID LEVELS DURING THE
NIGHT AND WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL WILL
IT GET WITH CLOUDS AROUND. WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS
LAST NIGHT IF THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
SKY COVER TOMORROW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. WITH
THAT IN MIND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO HIGHS TODAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BRING IN ENOUGH
WARM ADVECTION TO WARM THINGS VERY MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ALOFT: AFTER THE LAST 15 DAYS OF SUPPRESSED WESTERLIES AND THE
MEAN TROF IN THE WRN USA...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THE NEXT 7
DAYS THAT WILL ESTABLISHED A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND TROFS ON
BOTH COASTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH N OF HAWAII...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE E PAC SAT AND PARK
OVER TX BY TUE. IN THE MEANTIME...A POTENT SHRTWV TROF AND 120 KT
ULJ TOP THE HIGH WILL PRECEDE IT SAT AND ARRIVE HERE IN THE CNTRL
PLAINS. THE HIGH OVER TX AND LOWERING HGTS OVER THE E PAC WILL
SEND THE CUT-OFF LOW /CURRENTLY OFF SRN CA/ NE...ROUNDING THE
RIDGE TUE. THE RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE REGION WED-THU.
SFC: AS LOW PRES TRACKS THRU MT-ND...A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI NGT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COOL FRONT SAT.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM NW-SE ACROSS NEB AND KS SUN-TUE AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON ITS COOL SIDE. AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CREST THE RIDGE...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE E
ALONG THE FRONT TUE NGT INTO W. IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT WILL DROP A
LITTLE FARTHER S BUT ITS WRN EDGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TIED TO A
LEE LOW OVER NE CO.
HAZARDS: TSTMS ARE LIKELY SAT. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS ON SVR. THEN
WE NEED TO WATCH FOR MCS ACTIVITY MON-WED...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NGT: FCST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TERMINATES. THIS HAS
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MESOSCALE FORCING AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. MODEL QPFS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE 00Z AND
12Z UKMET INDICATING AN MCS...THE GFS/NAM/GEM LARGELY DRY AND THE
LAST 3 EC CYCLES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
NAM MUCAPE 600 J/KG. 1-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
THREAT FOR SVR.
SAT: IF AN MCS DOES AFFECT PART OF THE FCST AREA FRI NGT...THIS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON WHAT OCCURS SAT AFTN/EVNG. FOR NOW
HAVE TREATED THE TWO PERIODS SEPARATELY...AS IF THEY WILL NOT
AFFECT EACH OTHER. THE COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH A NARROW WARM SECTOR.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE GONE 4-6F WARMER THAN THE 4 AM GID FCST FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CINH WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. ANY LEFTOVER
CLOUDS/RAIN IN THE MRNG AND FCST TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM IN THOSE
AREAS.
SEVERE: STRENGTHENING MID-UPR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL INCREASE
0-5 KM SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES ...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ONE OF THE MORE CONCERNING
ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THAT THE MEAN TROPOSPHERIC WIND
WILL BE NORMAL TO THE COOL FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS AND
LESS CLUSTERING. 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 150 M2/S2 SUGGESTS
TORNADO POTENTIAL...HIGHEST NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. IT DOES APPEAR
THE TRIPLE PT COULD BE JUST NE OF THE FCST AREA /MAYBE NEAR OFK?/.
NAM MLCAPE HAS INCREASED 24 HRS AGO AND NOW OFFERS 1000-2000 J/KG
BEFORE ITS CONVECTIVE SCHEME KICKS IN. CLUSTERING OF MODELED HEAVIER
QPF IS BEST ALONG AND E OF HWY 281 WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FRONTAL
TIMING.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
/NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING/ COULD COMPENSATE FOR
LESS THAN IDEAL THERMODYNAMICS /IE SFC DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
60S/.
SAT NGT: CLEARING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST IF THE STRONGER EC IS RIGHT.
SUN: THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND! EXCELLENT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LGT WINDS. THE 00Z/12Z EC DOES SUGGEST A SHWR
OR TWO FROM FULLERTON-OSCEOLA NEB.
MON-WED: WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX.
IN THE WARM SECTOR...SUNNY AND HOT. ON THE COOL
SIDE...P/CLOUDY...MAYBE M/CLOUDY AT TIMES?...WITH THE THREAT OF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MRNG MCS ACTIVITY. FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH WE HAVE
NOTED THAT THE GEM/GFS/EC HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THEIR TSTM
CLUSTERS.
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE FOR FCST HEADACHES ON TEMPS AND PCPN
POTENTIAL. THE WAA/CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE MCS ACTIVITY OCCURS. THIS IN AND OF ITSELF
WILL REINFORCE/MODULATE THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. THE
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN MCS ACTIVITY AND THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAP WILL
BE VERY SHARP. THESE ARE DETAILS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE.
USE THE FCST WITH CAUTION NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE/VE INDICATED TIME
PERIODS OF LOW POPS AND OTHER PERIODS DRY...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE IF
WE GET AN MCS ROLLING THRU HERE. AGAIN...AM NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
SUCH LOW POPS/DRY FCST. IT/S JUST TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF/WHEN/WHERE
TSTMS WILL OCCUR.
HVY RAIN: THIS SETUP WARRANTS CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
BACK-BUILDING CELL CONFIGURATIONS IF MCS ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES.
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW...THU IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW.
HEAT: PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS COULD SEE A 4-DAY HEATWAVE /90F OR
MORE/ BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUN. 100F IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR 1 OR 2 DAYS AT BEAVER CITY-PHILLIPSBURG- PLAINVILLE KS. WE
COULD SEE THIS HEAT EXPAND INTO S-CNTRL NEB TUE IF THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK N.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SPREAD INTO THE KGRI TERMINAL
AREA. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND START TO
BREAK UP THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
IN THE MID LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THAT IT
WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW TIMES WHEN
IT MAY GO BROKEN. EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS TO FORM AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS STILL OVERCOMING INHIBITION FROM THIS MORNING`S
THICK AND PROLONGED LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK...STILL ERODING AWAY
IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NM. THE WEST
INITIATED A TOWERING CU FIELD FIRST...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
QUITE MODEST IN THE LOWER 20S BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE SHOWN TO BE JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE WHERE
STORMS WILL FAVOR BEFORE 5 PM. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE HAS THUS FAR ONLY PRODUCED VERY SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF
WETTING RAIN WITH VISUAL INDICATORS OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT BEFORE
CLOUD GLACIATION OCCURS. IT WILL BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT ANY STORMS THAT ROLL OFF OF THESE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE. THE 18Z HRRR INDICATES STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE RATON RIDGE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM ALSO SUPPORTS THIS.
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION...AND MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WESTWARD SURGE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BETWEEN THE RIO GRANDE AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MODEST
SEEPAGE OF EAST WINDS WILL ALSO SPILL THROUGH FAVORED GAPS/CANYONS
WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AIDING.
ON FRIDAY...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO FOCUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEAN 0-6 KM AGL STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FROM NW TO SE AGAIN...BUT SUFFICIENT VEERING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT COULD CREATE A FEW DEVIANT MOVERS WITH STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOWS. IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...DREW
BEST SEVERE MENTION JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH
THE DRIER NATURE OF STORMS TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE KEEPING
CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT ALIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SEE SUBTLE
RISES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY...PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN
FROM THE BAJA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS WILL STEER DEEPER
MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER EAST...LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE AND HIGHER-
BASED OR DRIER STORMS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE 592 DAM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER NM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE WHILE ONLY
DRY AND RATHER ANEMIC STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. POPS
REMAIN LOW OR NON-EXISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
SWELLS OVER THE STATE. BY LATE NEXT WEEK THE EUROPEAN SHIFTS THE
UPPER HIGH EAST WHILE A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...A BIT TOO PREMATURE FOR THE MONSOON.
52
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...HOT...DRY AND UNSTABLE PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AIR MASS TO BECOME MOST UNSTABLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS SOUTH
OF I-40 TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXPECT ISOLATED STRONG IF
NOT BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE AIR MASS
HAS RECOVERED FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY STORMS SLOWLY TOWARD THE E-SE. GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES AGAIN TONIGHT EAST AND MUCH OF THE
NORTH...WITH IMPROVED RECOVERIES FROM THE DIVIDE WESTWARD BUT STILL
GENERALLY FAIR AT BEST. THINK A BRIEF RETURN OF GUSTY EASTERLY GAP
WINDS A GOOD BET ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY
BENEATH A WEAK NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURE/AIR MASS
RECOVERY WILL BE FAR BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS
COMPARED TO TODAY...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE CROP OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EXPECT A GREATER NUMBER OF STRONG IF NOT
BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING AREAS
NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES FRIDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD MOST NOTABLY THE CENTRAL VALLEY CORRIDOR TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SO MOST CONCERNED WITH INVERTED-V
STORM ENVIRONMENT-- GUSTY WINDS/LIGHTNING WITH NOT MUCH RAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM
BUBBLE OF AIR EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE
BUILDS OUR DIRECTION FROM ARIZONA. MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING LESS
AND LESS FAVORABLE IN TIME BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION ARGUES FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED LATE DAY/EVENING STORMS FROM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
QUARTER. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE REINFORCED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A WILDCARD IN TERMS OF POP
PLACEMENT FOR LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES TO THE NE/EC PLAINS. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HOT...PREDOMINATELY DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF DRY THUNDER
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS SUN PM. PRETTY TYPICAL
OF EARLY JUNE...WITH VERY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WE WILL BE
BATTLING A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
BUT MODELS ALWAYS SEEM TO UNDERPLAY THE DEPTH OF MIXING THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND THUS OVERPREDICTS STRENGTH OF ANY CAPPING LAYER THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE AT LIMITING CONVECTION.
BEYOND SUNDAY...GROWING CONCERNS FOR LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE FORCING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN/TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN. HAVE
TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TUE PM BUT WITH HAINES INDICES
OF 6 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COULD BE CRITICAL PERIOD DESPITE
SPEEDS WELL BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. KJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ROSION OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH 20Z WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED EARLY IN FCST PD. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS PUSHED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS EVIDENCED BY SHARPLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS AS FAR WEST AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN WESTERN
NEW MEXICO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR
MASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
GENERALLY 10-12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TSRA IMPACTS
AT KSAF AND KLVS WITH VICINITY PLACEHOLDERS FOR KABQ...KTCC AND
KROW. THE AIR MASS WILL TAKE LONGER TO DESTABILIZE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. LINGERING
CONVECTION AFTER 02Z WILL BE VERY ISOLATED WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KROW AND KLVS LATE TONIGHT. KJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 53 90 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 41 83 41 84 / 10 20 20 10
CUBA............................ 46 84 45 88 / 20 20 20 5
GALLUP.......................... 47 88 48 90 / 5 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 43 84 46 86 / 20 10 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 45 88 50 91 / 20 20 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 49 87 50 89 / 5 20 20 5
GLENWOOD........................ 55 91 57 93 / 5 20 20 10
CHAMA........................... 39 74 38 81 / 20 30 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 78 53 84 / 40 40 30 10
PECOS........................... 47 79 53 88 / 50 50 40 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 78 42 82 / 40 30 30 10
RED RIVER....................... 36 67 34 70 / 50 40 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 34 73 35 77 / 50 40 40 20
TAOS............................ 45 80 45 85 / 30 30 30 10
MORA............................ 45 74 46 81 / 50 50 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 52 83 49 91 / 10 30 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 55 81 53 87 / 30 40 30 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 84 55 89 / 20 30 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 85 62 90 / 20 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 87 65 92 / 20 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 89 59 94 / 20 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 89 61 94 / 10 20 20 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 92 61 96 / 10 20 20 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 89 63 93 / 20 20 20 5
SOCORRO......................... 64 88 64 95 / 20 20 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 82 46 84 / 40 30 30 20
TIJERAS......................... 54 84 54 92 / 40 30 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 86 52 88 / 40 40 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 77 52 85 / 60 40 40 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 79 55 88 / 50 30 30 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 80 56 88 / 30 40 30 10
RUIDOSO......................... 47 72 49 82 / 60 50 40 20
CAPULIN......................... 48 76 48 83 / 60 30 40 10
RATON........................... 49 78 50 88 / 50 30 30 10
SPRINGER........................ 51 80 52 89 / 50 30 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 75 50 84 / 60 40 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 55 81 57 91 / 30 20 30 10
ROY............................. 55 78 56 88 / 50 20 40 10
CONCHAS......................... 61 81 61 95 / 50 20 30 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 80 59 94 / 50 20 30 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 81 63 96 / 40 20 30 10
CLOVIS.......................... 59 80 61 91 / 40 20 30 10
PORTALES........................ 61 81 63 91 / 40 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 80 63 93 / 50 20 30 10
ROSWELL......................... 66 84 66 95 / 50 20 30 10
PICACHO......................... 61 82 62 92 / 60 30 30 20
ELK............................. 58 79 57 85 / 60 50 40 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BACK INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
KLZK WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX /MCV/ LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LATEST 15Z LAPS ANALYSIS
INDICATES 600-1100 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
LATEST TRENDS STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LATEST RUC SHORT TERM MODEL INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG...700-500 MB LAYER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 6.5 C/KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE THREAT FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN ATTAIN SEVERE LIMITS.
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO ADJUST
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND ADJUST
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT HAS JUST ABOUT CROSSED THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WON`T BE AS GREAT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
SO HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY BRINGING DRY
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH NO RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION REDUCING THE
CHANCE OF RAIN.
BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL START A WARMING TREND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY EXPECTED
TO CRACK THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2013. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ARS
$$
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH...NOW
APPROACHING TUP. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AT
MKL...MEM OF JBR. WILL CARRY VCTS AT TUP FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT
A LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN PORTIONS OF WEST TN AND NORTH MS TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT THINK
IT WILL EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS MEM. WILL CARRY 4SM AT MKL AND TUP
DURING TH EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A TEMPO OF 1SM AT TUP. CIGS
WILL LIKELY NE LOW-END MVFR TO IFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 83 66 82 63 / 30 20 10 10
MKL 82 63 81 56 / 30 30 10 10
JBR 82 62 80 59 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 84 66 84 60 / 50 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1123 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BACK INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
KLZK WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX /MCV/ LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LATEST 15Z LAPS ANALYSIS
INDICATES 600-1100 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
LATEST TRENDS STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LATEST RUC SHORT TERM MODEL INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG...700-500 MB LAYER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 6.5 C/KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE THREAT FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN ATTAIN SEVERE LIMITS.
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO ADJUST
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND ADJUST
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT HAS JUST ABOUT CROSSED THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WON`T BE AS GREAT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
SO HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY BRINGING DRY
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH NO RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION REDUCING THE
CHANCE OF RAIN.
BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL START A WARMING TREND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY EXPECTED
TO CRACK THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2013. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ARS
$$
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM KDYR-KPBF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY 06/15Z. A FEW TSRAS WILL POP UP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH MS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT KTUP AND KMKL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N/NW AT 10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFT 07/01Z.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 83 66 82 63 / 30 20 10 10
MKL 82 63 81 56 / 30 30 10 10
JBR 82 62 80 59 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 85 66 84 60 / 40 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
157 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANDREA WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN HEAD EAST
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...
INTRODUCED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN LAST NIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GROUND TRUTH AMOUNTS ARE PROVING TO
BE GREATER THAN RADAR ESTIMATES WITH FOUR INCH AMOUNTS NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAME REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING TO ADDRESS BOTH
PRECIPITAITON ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND
POTENTIAL UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE FROM ANDREA AS IT
PASSES NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO BETTER
ADDRESS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 957 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY NEAR A LINE FROM
RADFORD VA TO MONETA VA. THIS TRAILING END OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 BY NOON. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH NOON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE GAPS IN
IT...AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE REGION WHICH IS OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE.
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS MORNING WITH DEEP SE FLOW
IN PLACE BETWEEN A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD/WARM FRONT COMBO TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING AREAS OF BETTER FOCUS WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE SE FLOW CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO
INIT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAD ENVIRONMENT. LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATTM...WITH THIS AREA SPREADING SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING...PUSHING BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE SRN FOOTHILLS OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS BUT GIVEN HIGH FFG/ONLY HIGHER RATES IN SPOTS
WILL HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME SORT OF PRE EVENT
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANDREA. OTHER AXIS OF
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WEST BEHIND THIS
EARLY BATCH AS WEAK ENERGY PUSHES EAST AND TAPS INTO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING WEAK SE
UPSLOPE TO PERSIST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD REGENERATE SHRA SW SO
OVERALL LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION PER EMBEDDED TSRA
DESPITE OVERALL LACK OF CAPE WITHIN THE ENHANCED COOL POOL TODAY.
MOS TEMPS HAVE ALSO TRENDED MUCH LOWER PROVIDED LITTLE INSOLATION
AND MORE PRECIP WHICH SHOULD AID THE EAST/SE FLOW SO TWEAKED
HIGHS DOWN A BIT MORE WITH SOME NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S.
5H TROF TO THE NW STARTS TO DIG SE OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF
ANDREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TOWARD SE NC BY MORNING. IFFY AS
TO JUST WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AXIS OF TROPICAL PWATS IN THE SE.
PENDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANDREA...COULD SEE THE WEST/SW
CTYS GET INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA LATE WITH ONLY SCTD SHRA.
THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE BUT OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY/CAT POPS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHERE BANDS
SET UP ESPCLY LATE. EXPECT A MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUX OF MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ESPCLY EAST WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY FALL BACK A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE DAY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A BLEND OF TRACKS FROM THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC MATCH
CLOSEST TO THE 03Z/06 ADVISORY FROM NHC. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING WILLIS WHARF AROUND 00Z ON THE 8TH AND
THEN UP NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANDREA WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE...HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CLOSE TO COOLER
MET/ECMWF VALUES. WENT WITH THE MILDER MOS LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT LEANING TOWARDS
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY TO BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S
IN THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FOLLOWING WPC AND THE 00Z/ECMWF. UPPER TROF COMING ACROSS
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL BE STALLED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE
FRONT GET PUSHED NORTH BRIEFLY PUTTING FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT DOESNT
GET TOO FAR SOUTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO BEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
COOLER AIR WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS COMMON NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL DAY. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREA...MVFR
CIGS AND VFR VSBYS ARE COMMON. WE EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...AREAS
CURRENTLY THAT AREA MVFR WILL TREND TO IFR WITH LIGHT FOG AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND ANDREA HEADING
NORTH ALONG THE COAST...WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MOISTURE SUPPLY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM HEAD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ013-014-016>020-
022>024-032>035-043.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ003-004-019-020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
105 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANDREA WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN HEAD EAST
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...
INTRODUCED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN LAST NIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GROUND TRUTH AMOUNTS ARE PROVING TO
BE GREATER THAN RADAR ESTIMATES WITH FOUR INCH AMOUNTS NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAME REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING TO ADDRESS BOTH
PRECIPITAITON ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND
POTENTIAL UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE FROM ANDREA AS IT
PASSES NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO BETTER
ADDRESS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL. HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 957 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY NEAR A LINE FROM
RADFORD VA TO MONETA VA. THIS TRAILING END OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 BY NOON. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH NOON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE GAPS IN
IT...AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE REGION WHICH IS OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE.
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS MORNING WITH DEEP SE FLOW
IN PLACE BETWEEN A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD/WARM FRONT COMBO TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME PINPOINTING AREAS OF BETTER FOCUS WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE SE FLOW CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO
INIT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAD ENVIRONMENT. LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATTM...WITH THIS AREA SPREADING SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE
MORNING...PUSHING BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE SRN FOOTHILLS OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE AREAS BUT GIVEN HIGH FFG/ONLY HIGHER RATES IN SPOTS
WILL HOLD OFF AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME SORT OF PRE EVENT
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANDREA. OTHER AXIS OF
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WEST BEHIND THIS
EARLY BATCH AS WEAK ENERGY PUSHES EAST AND TAPS INTO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING WEAK SE
UPSLOPE TO PERSIST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD REGENERATE SHRA SW SO
OVERALL LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION PER EMBEDDED TSRA
DESPITE OVERALL LACK OF CAPE WITHIN THE ENHANCED COOL POOL TODAY.
MOS TEMPS HAVE ALSO TRENDED MUCH LOWER PROVIDED LITTLE INSOLATION
AND MORE PRECIP WHICH SHOULD AID THE EAST/SE FLOW SO TWEAKED
HIGHS DOWN A BIT MORE WITH SOME NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S.
5H TROF TO THE NW STARTS TO DIG SE OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF
ANDREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE TOWARD SE NC BY MORNING. IFFY AS
TO JUST WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT
APPEARS LIKELY NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AXIS OF TROPICAL PWATS IN THE SE.
PENDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANDREA...COULD SEE THE WEST/SW
CTYS GET INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA LATE WITH ONLY SCTD SHRA.
THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE BUT OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY/CAT POPS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WHERE BANDS
SET UP ESPCLY LATE. EXPECT A MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUX OF MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ESPCLY EAST WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY FALL BACK A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE DAY HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A BLEND OF TRACKS FROM THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC MATCH
CLOSEST TO THE 03Z/06 ADVISORY FROM NHC. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING WILLIS WHARF AROUND 00Z ON THE 8TH AND
THEN UP NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANDREA WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE...HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDE FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CLOSE TO COOLER
MET/ECMWF VALUES. WENT WITH THE MILDER MOS LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT LEANING TOWARDS
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY TO BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S
IN THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FOLLOWING WPC AND THE 00Z/ECMWF. UPPER TROF COMING ACROSS
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL BE STALLED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE
FRONT GET PUSHED NORTH BRIEFLY PUTTING FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT DOESNT
GET TOO FAR SOUTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO BEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
COOLER AIR WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COME
IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM EDT THURSDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
AS SHOWERS PERSIST OVER MOST TAF LOCATIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ESPCLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL OCCUR UNDER LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO LIFR AS WELL AROUND KROA THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPCLY THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT. GIVEN STABLE
CONDITIONS...WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER EXCEPT FOR A VCTS MENTION IN
SPOTS MAINLY AROUND KBLF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING BUT RETURN OVER THE SE LATE AS TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA HEADS RAPIDLY NE ALONG THE COAST. SHRA MAY BE TOO FAR
EAST TO BRING HEAVIER RAIN BACK INTO KDAN/KLYH BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME SHOWER MENTION OVERNIGHT. ELSW...LOW CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW
LOW CIGS WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE PROJECTING IFR TO LIFR ONCE THE
SHOWERS TAPER SO BASICALLY FOLLOWED AND INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LOW
CONDITIONS WITH SOME ADDED FOG AROUND AS WELL.
ANDREA TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY ALLOWING
GRADUAL DRYING ALOFT TO WORK IN FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT STILL ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WILL BE
HARD TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SLOWLY IMPROVING CIGS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EXPECTING A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN CIGS WITH
POTENTIAL VFR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SITES BY LATE IN THE DAY
DESPITE SOME LINGERING SHRA AROUND.
THINGS SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAYBE EARLY
MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT
EVEN THOUGH WILL SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT MODELS SEEM
TO KEEP CIGS AT LEAST VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ013-014-016>020-
022>024-032>035-043.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ003-004-019-020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS EVEN A WEAK LOW SHOWING UP AT
700 MB. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THUS...WENT WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THOSE AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
NAM AND RAP HAVE MUCH STRONGER SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS AROUND 06.18Z. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH CAPE BUILD UP TO AID IN THE STRETCHING OF THIS
VORTICITY AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THIS AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF IT
CAN REMAIN ROOTED ON THIS BOUNDARY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
ON FRIDAY...THE 06.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...A COLD POCKET OF AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DUE
TO THIS THE 900 TO 800 MB LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 8 AND
8.5 C/KM. DUE TO THIS EXPECT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE EVEN HINTS
THAT THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED INTO THE EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SPEED UP A SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE THE REGION. MODERATE TO
STRONG 300 TO 320K ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS RESULTED IN THE CLOUD COVER MOVING
INTO THE REGION FASTER. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
RAPID INCREASE IN THE FRONTOGENESIS FROM 950 TO 500 MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...AND 700 TO 500 MB ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW
THIS FRONT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. OVERALL...WITH THE RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT MANY OF THE
LOWS HAVE BEEN CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE REGION THIS SPRING...PREFER THE
CLOSED LOW SCENARIO THAT THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF GENERATE ACROSS
THE REGION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
INTO THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE...SO COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR AHEAD OF
THIS LOW CLIMBS UP TO 50 KNOTS...THE ML CAPES ONLY CLIMB UP TO
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING RIDGING
TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE AS FAST
OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IF THIS DOES INDEED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
ALREADY NOTICED THAT THE ECMWF WAS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE ALL BLEND...SO TRENDED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COLDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT THE RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...A WARM FRONT GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 45 KNOT 850 MB JET WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE 0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 2500 TO
3500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 50 TO 70 KNOT RANGE...SO
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM. DUE TO
THIS...THERE IS CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE OPTED
NOT TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BETWEEN 825 MB AND 650 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ML CAPES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 50 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...
WITH A WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES TO ADDED TO THE THREATS FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING. LIKE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO ADD THIS
THREAT TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
PESKY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN DOWN INTO ILLINOIS. SOME DRYING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS HAS LIFTED IFR CEILINGS TO MVFR AT KRST WHICH
SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE AT
KLSE...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE TO LOW-END MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LIFT AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BOTH SITES. FOR THIS
EVENING...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG/STRATUS AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WIND PROFILES REMAIN
VERY LIGHT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. AT RST...CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO LIFR/IFR AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD FALL TO
IFR. AT KLSE...MAINLY IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY FUNNEL SOME
DRIER AIR TOWARD WESTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIFT
CEILINGS TO MVFR AT KLSE SOMETIME IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ZT