Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/05/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A FEW ECHOES ON RADAR NEAR THE SRN BORDER OF
RIO GRANDE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...ONLY SEEING A FEW CU DEVELOPING ALONG
THE ERN MTS. THE LATEST NAM RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PCPN OVR THE
MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND EVEN KEEPS SOME LINGERING PCPN
OVR THE SWRN CO MTS LATE TONIGHT. THE HRRR KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA
DRY UNTIL AROUND 01Z AND THEN SHOWS A LITTLE QPF OVR THE SERN CORNER
OF THE STATE...WHICH THE GFS ALSO SHOWS. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS
FOCUSED OVR AND NR THE SRN MTS THIS EVENING AND ENDING LATE.
ON MONDAY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH AN UPR LOW MOVING
ACRS MT DURING THE DAY AND AN UPR RIDGE OVR MEXICO. THE SFC WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACRS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST OR SW AND IT LOOKS LIKE MANY AREAS COULD
SEE THE GUSTS REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AND WITH THE
WESTERLY FLOW THE DEW POINTS WILL DRY OUT AND RH VALUES WL DROP
BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THUS WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 222...225...227...233 AND 237 WHERE THE
FUELS ARE DRY AND THE WIND AND RH CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET. ZONE 221
LOOKED MARGINAL SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE WARNING FOR NOW...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED WITH LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS. IN
ZONE 225 IT LOOKED LIKE THE RH AND WIND CRITERIA WOULD BE MET MAINLY
BELOW 9000 FEET.
ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR MONDAY IT WHERE THE DRY LINE WILL SET UP. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 PUSHES THE DRY LINE WELL INTO KS MON
AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CO BORDER. THE NAM HAS SPOTTY PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NOTHING UNTIL
EVENING...WHEN IT TOO HAS SPOTTY QPF. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS BEING DRY...MEASURABLE PCPN WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND THE
MAIN THUNDERSTORMS THREATS WOULD BE WIND AND LIGHTNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
...CHANCE OF SOME STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF SVR WX RETURNING TO
THE AREA TUE AND WED. ON TUE...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVR THE
DAKOTAS...AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SET THE STAGE FOR SCT TS DEVELOPMENT TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVE. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVR THE ERN MTS AND THEN
SHIFT EWD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...IN THE 40 KT RANGE INCREASING TO 50 KTS OR
MORE BY EVE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WHICH WILL KEEP CAPE MAINLY IN THE 750-1200 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...GOOD FORCING ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE WILL HELP BUILD
A FEW STRONG STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SVR AS
THEY MOVE E OF I-25 AND INTO BETTER MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR WX WILL BE OVER THE SE PLAINS INCLUDING BACA AND
PROWERS COUNTIES...WHICH IS WHERE SPC CURRENTLY HAS THEIR SLIGHT
RISK OUTLOOK FOR DAY 3. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN ON
MONDAY...BUT STILL FAIRLY WARM FOR THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 80S.
WEDNESDAY COULD BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH SVR WX POTENTIAL...BUT IT
WILL ALSO BE A BIT TRICKY WITH THE PREVIOUS DAY`S CONVECTION
POSSIBLY HAVING AND EFFECT ON MORNING CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE ATMOSPHERE MIGHT BECOME TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT
STRONG CONVECTION. EARLIER RUNS OF THE NAM HAD HINTED AT THAT
POSSIBILITY...WHILE THE LATEST NAM SEEMS TO BE ALIGNING BETTER WITH
THE GFS IN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND AND MAINTAIN A THREAT
OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE OVR THE ERN
MTS...THEN SPREADING TO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE COULD BE A
BIT HIGHER WED...SO IF THERE IS A BIT OF SUN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
THIS COULD BRING THE THREAT OF SVR A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST WED
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THU-FRI. DECREASED SHEAR MAY LIMIT THE SVR THREAT...BUT WITH
SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE THE FOCUS MAY SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. NCEP MODELS INDICATE BETWEEN .25 AND .50 INCHES
OF LIQUID FOR THE WALDO SCAR TUE...ANOTHER .5 TO 1.0 INCHES
WED...AND STILL MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI. SO...THE
WALDO BURN SCAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TROUBLE SPOT AND WILL NEED
SOME EXTRA ATTENTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST DURING
THE DAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE DRY LINE JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS BORDER.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS...SOME GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE
PLAINS DURING MONDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ222-225-227-
233-237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
MAINLY TO UPDATE EXPECTED POP AND SKY COVER TRENDS. REDUCED POPS
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT KEPT LIKELY POPS SOUTH FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...MUCAPE
VALUES ALREADY ABOVE 1000 J/KG EVERYWHERE ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT /WHICH IS SORT OF STRETCHED BETWEEN AHN AND CSG/ AND SBCAPE
VALUES INCHING UP AS WELL. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY KEEP
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA SO WILL WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND THEN MAKE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FROM
THERE. OVERALL TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK GOOD THOUGH
TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IF CLOUDS DO NOT BREAK UP AS
EXPECTED.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA CURRENTLY WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT REACHING CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
TONIGHT AND STALLING/WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH GEORGIA. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
TODAY WITH A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING THROUGH TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT A
MINIMUM. INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR MAKES IT INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
FOR CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG DIURNAL BIAS.
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY SHOULD BE MODERATE ONCE
AGAIN BUT THE SAME LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHEAR WOULD
INDICATE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TUESDAY AS
WELL.
KEPT CLOSE TO MOS HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
20
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH A GENERAL
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IN
PLACE. THE DRIEST AIR THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE WEEK WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF GA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST TO BE AOA 1.25 INCHES WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY IS NEAR
NORMAL. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUES INTO WED TO ACCOUNT
FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS WHICH MAY FIRE UP DURING THE AFTN...WHICH
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.
BY LATE WED THROUGH FRI...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY
ON THU AND FRI WHEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS IS THE CASE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
HOWEVER WE WILL SEE SOME STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
AROUND 6.5 DEG C/KM COMBINED WITH MODERATE CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES
WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS PW VALUES REACH THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH
MARK OR THE 99TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING FOR THE MONTH
OF JUNE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS
EXPECTED.
BY SATURDAY...ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION
TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE
EXTENDED...SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES AT LOW END
SLIGHT...HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THEM COMPLETELY
FROM THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE GENERALLY RAIN FREE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST..HOWEVER DIURNAL STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE AND
THE REMNANT FRONT WILL TICK UP CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY ON THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH THE GFS THE DEEPEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE
INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT IT AT CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY STAY AROUND CLIMO..MID 80S
AND MID 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ON SAT AND
SUN...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW
90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
TROPICS...
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS
PICKED UP BY THE MODELS WHICH GENERALLY MOVE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. SOME OF
THE MOISTURE FROM IT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO GA AND BRING PW VALUES
TO THE TOP OF THE SCALE LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THE REASON WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS OUT THERE THIS MORNING BUT MAINLY
SEEING LOW VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING SO
HAVE KEPT TREND OF TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. AS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH...CHANCE FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN METRO TAFS BUT HAVE ADDED IT TO MCN/CSG WITH MVFR
VSBY AT AHN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. WINDS GENERALLY
NW THROUGH TONIGHT BUT EXPECT SHIFT TO NE AND E STARTING AROUND
13Z TUESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION...LOW ON IMPACTING ATL TODAY.
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM ON LACK OF CIGS TUESDAY MORNING.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 67 86 71 / 50 20 10 20
ATLANTA 84 69 86 73 / 50 20 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 80 60 80 66 / 30 5 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 85 62 86 70 / 30 5 5 10
COLUMBUS 88 70 89 76 / 60 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 84 67 84 70 / 40 10 10 20
MACON 86 68 89 72 / 60 30 30 20
ROME 85 62 86 70 / 30 5 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 86 65 87 71 / 50 20 10 10
VIDALIA 88 71 89 73 / 60 30 40 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1143 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
MAINLY TO UPDATE EXPECTED POP AND SKY COVER TRENDS. REDUCED POPS
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT KEPT LIKELY POPS SOUTH FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...MUCAPE
VALUES ALREADY ABOVE 1000 J/KG EVERYWHERE ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT /WHICH IS SORT OF STRETCHED BETWEEN AHN AND CSG/ AND SBCAPE
VALUES INCHING UP AS WELL. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY KEEP
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA SO WILL WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND THEN MAKE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FROM
THERE. OVERALL TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK GOOD THOUGH
TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IF CLOUDS DO NOT BREAK UP AS
EXPECTED.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA CURRENTLY WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT REACHING CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
TONIGHT AND STALLING/WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH GEORGIA. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
TODAY WITH A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING THROUGH TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT A
MINIMUM. INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR MAKES IT INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
FOR CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG DIURNAL BIAS.
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY SHOULD BE MODERATE ONCE
AGAIN BUT THE SAME LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHEAR WOULD
INDICATE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TUESDAY AS
WELL.
KEPT CLOSE TO MOS HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
20
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH A GENERAL
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IN
PLACE. THE DRIEST AIR THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE WEEK WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF GA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST TO BE AOA 1.25 INCHES WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY IS NEAR
NORMAL. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUES INTO WED TO ACCOUNT
FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS WHICH MAY FIRE UP DURING THE AFTN...WHICH
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.
BY LATE WED THROUGH FRI...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY
ON THU AND FRI WHEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS IS THE CASE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
HOWEVER WE WILL SEE SOME STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
AROUND 6.5 DEG C/KM COMBINED WITH MODERATE CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES
WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS PW VALUES REACH THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH
MARK OR THE 99TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING FOR THE MONTH
OF JUNE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS
EXPECTED.
BY SATURDAY...ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION
TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE
EXTENDED...SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES AT LOW END
SLIGHT...HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THEM COMPLETELY
FROM THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE GENERALLY RAIN FREE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST..HOWEVER DIURNAL STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE AND
THE REMNANT FRONT WILL TICK UP CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY ON THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH THE GFS THE DEEPEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE
INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT IT AT CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY STAY AROUND CLIMO..MID 80S
AND MID 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ON SAT AND
SUN...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW
90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
TROPICS...
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS
PICKED UP BY THE MODELS WHICH GENERALLY MOVE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. SOME OF
THE MOISTURE FROM IT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO GA AND BRING PW VALUES
TO THE TOP OF THE SCALE LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THE REASON WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
30
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIDE MIXTURE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BY 14-16Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING AFTER 18Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA...DIMINISHING AFTER 22Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 14Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AT 6KT OR
LESS. AFTER 14Z WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 6-10KT RANGE AND BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN DIRECTION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS 12-18Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 67 86 71 / 40 10 10 20
ATLANTA 84 69 86 73 / 30 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 80 60 80 66 / 30 10 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 85 62 86 70 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 88 70 89 76 / 70 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 84 67 84 70 / 30 10 10 20
MACON 86 68 89 72 / 70 30 20 20
ROME 85 62 86 70 / 30 10 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 86 65 87 71 / 40 10 10 10
VIDALIA 88 71 89 73 / 60 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
210 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...WITH THE REMAINING ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
MADE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE KEEPING THE CENTRAL GEORGIA
PORTIONS AS HIGH OR SLIGHTER HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED MONDAY...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER.
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
.ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 405 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
COLD FRONT STILL NORTHWEST OF THE STATE HOWEVER TWO LINES OF
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. LOCAL
WRF HAS PICKED UP ON BOTH LINES BUT WEAKENS THE EASTERN LINE AND
LETS THE WESTERN LINE DOMINATE. ALTHOUGH HRRR ISNT AS CLEAR WITH
BOTH LINES...IT DOES SHOW THE WEST LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE AND PUSH EAST. FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THESE TWO HI-RES
MODELS WITH THE FOCUS BECOMING ON THE WEST LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT SO HAVE SHOWN CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING WIND
AND HAIL. BEHIND THIS LINE...COULD STILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH ON FORECAST TONIGHT AS
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /INCLUDING HI RES/...SOME
SHOWING AN ACTIVE NIGHT WHILE OTHERS LIMITING ACTIVITY. HAVE
BASICALLY GONE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON MONDAY. WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT
THAT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
/2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE/ MONDAY AFTERNOON TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.
STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPS ARE NEAR A MODEL BLEND.
11
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1025 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING SO MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TO
REDUCE POPS FOR THE MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH...THE HRRR
INCREASES COVERAGE GREATLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST. SOME INDICATION IN
THE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST OUR POPS UPWARD
OVERNIGHT IN FUTURE UPDATES.
PORTIONS OF FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 4
INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS EVENT SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE
RECEIVED A REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED FLOODING AS
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
11
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTH GA MONDAY NIGHT...
WHERE IT MEANDERS... THEN DRIFTS BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SPREAD BACK
ACROSS NORTH GA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW BEGINS TO
ADVECT DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA WHILE A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO CARVE A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES DOWN THE MS VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND PROVIDES THE
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY... ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...THEN UP THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF CANADA HELPS HOLD THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY... A CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY. AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PUSHES OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT AND
DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH IN ITS WAKE. DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND TRACK... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW AND MONITOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
39
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WIDE MIXTURE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. I EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BY 14-16Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING AFTER 18Z. AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH 00Z...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 14Z...BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 6KT OR LESS. AFTER 14Z WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 6-10KT
RANGE AND BECOME MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN DIRECTION.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 06-14Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 84 63 87 / 60 50 30 10
ATLANTA 69 84 68 86 / 80 30 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 80 60 81 / 50 40 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 66 84 62 88 / 50 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 72 87 70 89 / 40 40 30 10
GAINESVILLE 67 83 65 85 / 90 40 20 10
MACON 69 86 68 90 / 100 50 40 20
ROME 67 83 61 88 / 40 20 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 84 62 87 / 80 30 20 10
VIDALIA 72 86 71 89 / 70 60 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
848 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
00Z ILX SOUNDING EXHIBITING A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM 850
MB TO 500 MB (OR 5000 TO 10000 FT). LEAD BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIR.
SURFACE MAP SHOWING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF LIFT...THE FIRST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW...WHILE
THE SECOND AREA WAS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR A SFC
WAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO THESE SURFACE
WAVES...ONE TO OUR NORTH...AND THE OTHER TO OUR SOUTH. OUR LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STUBBORN DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE. WE HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND BASED ON THE EARLY EVENING TRENDS AND LATEST SHORT
TERM HI-RES FORECASTS...THAT SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
AS A RESULT...OTHER THAN THE USUAL EARLY EVENING ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED THAT
WOULD WARRANT AN EVENING ZONE UPDATE.
SMITH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD (00Z/6TH).
BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MARCH SLOWLY EAST WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
FROM AROUND 5000 FEET THRU 9000 FEET...SUGGESTING THE WEAKENING
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RAIN TO OUR WEST. MAY SEE SOME SCT-
BKN CIGS BTWN 4000-5000 FEET AFTR 09Z TONIGHT...ESP ACRS THE
WEST...BUT OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES...NO SIG PRECIP IS
EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THAT WILL BE THE STORY AS WELL
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN CIGS WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
A FACTOR THRU THE PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST DIRECTION EXPECTED
AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY IN A COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS OUR SOURCE REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY
3 DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST
WEEK AND THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS QUITE LIMITED.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LATEST ILX SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME EXPANDING EAST AS THEY FIGHT THE DRY AIR.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS...ALONG WITH THE SHORT RANGE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DRY AIR BY KEEPING THE
SHOWERS AT BAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-55.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. DUE TO THE
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY MODERATE LIFT
WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCH.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEFORE THE LOWER
LEVELS MOISTEN UP...SO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL
FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO CREATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...SO WILL STICK WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 70-75
RANGE FOR HIGHS.
A BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE AT ODDS LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH DEEPER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS
WHICH RESULTS IN A QUICKER RETURN FLOW...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
EARLIER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE
A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW SATURDAY...AND DONT START TO STRENGTHEN THE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PREFER
THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS RAIN OUT UNTIL SAT NIGHT IN WEST
CENTRAL IL AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY.
THE GFS...HOWEVER TRIES TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BY RAISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MUCH QUICKER ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LIFTING A WARM FRONT TOWARD IL.
THIS LOOKS A BIT TOO QUICK FOR NOW...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER FOR TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY FROM LINCOLN SOUTH WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
PLEASANT HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL/NE IL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI THAT DRIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND STRENGTHENS TO 1023 MB BY SUNSET.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINAL
AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM TUE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3.5-5K FT TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH LESS CLOUDS AT CMI AND PIA. EXPECT ENE WINDS 5-10 KTS WITH
FEW GUSTS 10-15 KTS ALONG I-74. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
AT SUNSET. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE TUE
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 8-13 KTS BY 15Z/10 AM TUE. 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAKE MI WILL STRENGTHEN TO 1024 MB OVER MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUE MORNING KEEPING FAIR WEATHER TO CENTRAL IL NEXT 24 HOURS.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING AT AND BELOW 850 MB WILL GIVE DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUE...WITH BROKEN CEILINGS
AT TIMES TODAY FROM 3.5-5K FT ESPECIALLY AT SPI...DEC AND BMI.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STUBBORN STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE...BUT IS
STEADILY CONTRACTING UPON ITSELF AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. STILL SEEING SOME LOWER 60S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AT 2 AM...BUT TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WHERE MORE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WITH
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
LATEST RAP MODEL 925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
NORTHERN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS...AND SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...CU RULE
KEEPS SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70...BUT BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING STILL
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN IN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW NOT
PROVIDING FOR MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FROM I-55 WEST...WITH
AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
MAINLY BE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHOULD START OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CREEP
ACROSS ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF I-57 DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 40
PERCENT EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW A WIDER VARIATION OF SOLUTIONS AS UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS A BIT MORE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR CANADIAN MODELS AS IT LINGERS SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS THE LATTER
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND FOCUS THE
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. WHILE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MENTIONED ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE...HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT
IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND BACK TO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS SOME SIGNS OF
A COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN SETTING UP...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MOST
PROMINENT IN THAT REGARD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PRETTY MUCH DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AM USING THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS RANGE...AS THE GFS SEEMS A BIT SUSPICIOUS
WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER MISSOURI.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER FOR TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY FROM LINCOLN SOUTH WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
PLEASANT HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL/NE IL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI THAT DRIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND STRENGTHENS TO 1023 MB BY SUNSET.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STRATUS DECK SLOWLY ERODING...BUT STILL IMPACTING SRN TERMINALS.
AREAS THAT SAW SOME CLEARING IN THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING A COUPLE
HOURS OF BR. OTHER THAN THAT...LIGHT WINDS AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER THE REGION. AND SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CU RULE REDEVELOP THE CU LATE MORNING. BEYOND THE DAYS
CU AND LIGHT WINDS...A BIT OF SCT CIRRUS IN THE EVENING...WHICH
WILL SPILL OVER TO TOMORROW MORNING.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STUBBORN STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE...BUT IS
STEADILY CONTRACTING UPON ITSELF AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. STILL SEEING SOME LOWER 60S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AT 2 AM...BUT TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WHERE MORE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WITH
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
LATEST RAP MODEL 925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
NORTHERN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS...AND SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...CU RULE
KEEPS SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70...BUT BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING STILL
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN IN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW NOT
PROVIDING FOR MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FROM I-55 WEST...WITH
AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
MAINLY BE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHOULD START OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CREEP
ACROSS ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF I-57 DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 40
PERCENT EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW A WIDER VARIATION OF SOLUTIONS AS UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS A BIT MORE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR CANADIAN MODELS AS IT LINGERS SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS THE LATTER
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND FOCUS THE
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. WHILE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MENTIONED ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE...HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT
IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND BACK TO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS SOME SIGNS OF
A COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN SETTING UP...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MOST
PROMINENT IN THAT REGARD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PRETTY MUCH DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AM USING THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS RANGE...AS THE GFS SEEMS A BIT SUSPICIOUS
WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER MISSOURI.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
659 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STUBBORN STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE...BUT IS
STEADILY CONTRACTING UPON ITSELF AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. STILL SEEING SOME LOWER 60S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AT 2 AM...BUT TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WHERE MORE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WITH
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
LATEST RAP MODEL 925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
NORTHERN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS...AND SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...CU RULE
KEEPS SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70...BUT BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING STILL
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN IN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW NOT
PROVIDING FOR MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FROM I-55 WEST...WITH
AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
MAINLY BE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHOULD START OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CREEP
ACROSS ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF I-57 DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 40
PERCENT EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW A WIDER VARIATION OF SOLUTIONS AS UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS A BIT MORE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR CANADIAN MODELS AS IT LINGERS SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS THE LATTER
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND FOCUS THE
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. WHILE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MENTIONED ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE...HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT
IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND BACK TO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS SOME SIGNS OF
A COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN SETTING UP...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MOST
PROMINENT IN THAT REGARD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PRETTY MUCH DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AM USING THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS RANGE...AS THE GFS SEEMS A BIT SUSPICIOUS
WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER MISSOURI.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STRATUS DECK SLOWLY ERODING...BUT STILL IMPACTING SRN TERMINALS.
AREAS THAT SAW SOME CLEARING IN THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING A COUPLE
HOURS OF BR. OTHER THAN THAT...LIGHT WINDS AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER THE REGION. AND SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CU RULE REDEVELOP THE CU LATE MORNING. BEYOND THE DAYS
CU AND LIGHT WINDS...A BIT OF SCT CIRRUS IN THE EVENING...WHICH
WILL SPILL OVER TO TOMORROW MORNING.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
248 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STUBBORN STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE...BUT IS
STEADILY CONTRACTING UPON ITSELF AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. STILL SEEING SOME LOWER 60S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AT 2 AM...BUT TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WHERE MORE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WITH
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
LATEST RAP MODEL 925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
NORTHERN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS...AND SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...CU RULE
KEEPS SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70...BUT BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING STILL
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN IN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW NOT
PROVIDING FOR MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FROM I-55 WEST...WITH
AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
MAINLY BE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHOULD START OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CREEP
ACROSS ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF I-57 DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 40
PERCENT EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW A WIDER VARIATION OF SOLUTIONS AS UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS A BIT MORE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR CANADIAN MODELS AS IT LINGERS SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS THE LATTER
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND FOCUS THE
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. WHILE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MENTIONED ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE...HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT
IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND BACK TO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS SOME SIGNS OF
A COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN SETTING UP...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MOST
PROMINENT IN THAT REGARD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PRETTY MUCH DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AM USING THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS RANGE...AS THE GFS SEEMS A BIT SUSPICIOUS
WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER MISSOURI.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
CLEARING HAD BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME
REDEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL STILL TRY TO INCLUDE
A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT UNTIL DIURNAL CU REDEVELOP
MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE CLEARING IS NOT AS GOOD AS
IT HAD BEEN. IN ANY EVENT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF VALID TIME SHOULD KEEP WINDS MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.
BAK
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
953 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH MCS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. SEVERE WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THE MCS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ALL NIGHT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS MCS AND EXPECT THE MAIN LINE TO APPROACH BETWEEN
06-07Z...BUT IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY EARLIER IF THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION SPEEDS UP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT THE SEVERE THREAT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN THREATS CONTINUE
TO BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
BILLINGS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A REMNANT MCV OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHILE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR A STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE ACTIVITY ALONG A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROPAGATE ESE
TOWARD THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS IN ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
AOA 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND WITH RECENT RAIN/WET SOILS AND SLOW
STORM PROPAGATION ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS ALONG THE NEOSHO BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR REMAINS LOW. LIMITED INSOLATION/LOW
LEVEL CAA IN THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN
SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...LOWS MAY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND TRENDED VALUES DOWN SLIGHTLY.
MCGUIRE
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL
EXIT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON SATURDAY...A SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR.
NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND REMAIN ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BOTH
NIGHTS. HAVE INDICATED SUCH WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE FORECAST.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
FOLLOWING HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HRRR/NAM THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE AFTER 04Z AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES EAST
FROM WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE STORM
ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING...BUT IF THE STORMS PERSIST...TAFS WILL
NEED TO BE AMENDED...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM COULD CAUSE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 65 73 57 76 / 90 70 30 10
HUTCHINSON 62 71 54 76 / 100 70 30 10
NEWTON 62 70 55 75 / 100 70 30 10
ELDORADO 63 72 55 75 / 70 70 30 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 75 58 76 / 70 70 40 10
RUSSELL 61 71 51 76 / 100 50 20 10
GREAT BEND 61 70 51 76 / 100 50 20 10
SALINA 62 72 54 76 / 100 60 20 10
MCPHERSON 62 71 54 76 / 100 60 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 65 77 62 76 / 60 70 40 10
CHANUTE 64 75 59 75 / 60 70 30 10
IOLA 64 74 58 74 / 60 70 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 65 76 61 75 / 60 70 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER DAKOTAS
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NW KS. COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...WITH STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH
MLCAPE INCREASE ALONG FRONT RANGE AND UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE ALONG
PALMER ASSOCIATED WITH NE FLOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF OUR CWA LATER. CAPE/SHEER
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN.
ULTIMATELY WE MAY NOT ACTUALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 03Z WHEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AND DEEP MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
CWA...HOWEVER H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WED. NAM IS
SHOWING SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA/PV HEIGHT ANOMALIES TRACKING OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WED WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP DEPENDING ON THEIR
LOCATIONS. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING STILL SEEMS TO BE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF CWA...AND WHILE PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY I AM UNSURE ABOUT
AMOUNTS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z SO I ONLY LEFT
ISO THUNDER MENTION AFTER THAT POINT. LOCATION OF EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AND LOCATION OF ENHANCE AREA OF RAIN BANDS/SHOWER CLUSTERS
WILL DETERMINE BEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND THESE WILL BE MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED. AN ESTIMATE OF 0.10 TO 0.30" TOTAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE
CWA SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THIS EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH CAA OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...AND LINGERING PRECIP/THICK CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY NOT SEE HIGHS REACH 60F IF
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE VERIFIES AND PRECIP LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I LOWERED TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS STILL
ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NAM/MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT
STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. FLOW IN GENERAL IS VERY COMPLICATED AND
LITTERED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW.
AT MID LEVELS THE ECMWF WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
NAM/SREF/GFS. MODELS LOOK TO INITIALLY BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. THE UKMET AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DURING THE EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE EAST. DO EXPECT RAINFALL
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THIS EVENT ENDS. THE WINDS GO
LIGHT AND CLEARING DOES OCCUR. NOT A DEFINITE SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS BUT DO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
WEAK JET LIFT LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL LIFT IS AROUND. REMOTE CHANCE
THAT SOMETHING COULD FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN
COLORADO. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK. SO WILL KEEP IT
DRY.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SOME STRONGER UPPER JET LIFT COMES IN DURING
THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AIR MASS DRIES
AS HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE JET...WHICH MAY
ONLY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID
LEVEL LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE IS STILL NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. GUIDANCE STAYS
COOL AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WENT IN THAT DIRECTION.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO LOOKS TO BE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OUT
WEST. BEST LIFT LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THIS PERIOD. SO PULLED POPS
FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY AND CONFINED THEM TO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. WITH LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST AS SURFACE RIDGE PULLS
AWAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST. NOT THE BEST
DIRECTION FOR A WARMUP. SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SO THE CHANCE POPS THE CRH INIT POPS I WAS GIVEN LOOK
REASONABLE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF EVENTUALLY THEY WENT
HIGHER. AFTER THAT THE FORECAST GETS MORE UNCERTAIN. THROUGH
MONDAY THE MODELS SHOW THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES RISING TO
VARYING DEGREES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH IN A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ALSO DURING THIS TIME THE MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER...CAPPED AND DRIER
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH COOLER AND WETTER. ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST LEAVING THE AREA POSSIBLY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. SO MODEL OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPECT IN THE
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD AND TO ME LOOKS PROBLEMATIC TO TRY MAKE
ANY SENSE OR MAKE BIG CHANGES TO IT. SO CHOSE TO KEEP THE OVERALL POP
FIELD IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME WITH A CHANCE THAT EITHER EXTREME
COULD BECOME REALITY. ALSO KEPT REMAINING INHERITED INIT GRIDS
UNCHANGED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FIRST FEW HOURS AND THEN
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KGLD AROUND 06Z AND KMCK AROUND
09Z FOR LOW STRATUS. IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IS LIKELY
AT KGLD AROUND 12Z ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS AND WHAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED...ALTHOUGH SUGGESTIONS BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS MUCH
MORE REDUCED ON VISIBILITY SO DECIDED TO GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON
VISIBILITY DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
IN THE SHORT TERM...KGLD COULD SEEM TSTORMS MOVING IN FROM EASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE EVENING SO WENT WITH VCTS AT 02Z DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE STORMS DECIDE TO TRACK.
LOW STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD START TO MOVE IN AROUND/SLIGHTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH...RAIN SHOWERS ARE
MORE LIKELY THAN TSTORMS SINCE INSTABILITY DECREASES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE BOTH TAF
SITES HAVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THERE COULD BE
SOME BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT TOMORROW DUE TO WHERE THE
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP AND TRACK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
626 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING EASTERN KS AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW FROM ID INTO WY. AT THE SURFACE...OBS SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER AM NOT THAT OPTIMISTIC STORMS
WILL FORM. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG OVER CENTRAL KS WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AS NOTED IN THE MID
LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD OF 5 TO 10 KTS DOES NOT SUGGEST CONVERGENCE WITHIN
THE TROUGH AXIS IS VERY STRONG AND THE CU FIELD ON VISIBLE HAS NOT
SHOWN MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. IF SOMETHING WERE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
MAYBE NEAR MINNEAPOLIS. IF STORMS ARE UNABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING AND A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF CONVECTION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS AND MID RANGE MODELS
IS TO TRACK THE MCS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A SLOWER
AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE MCS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE
HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE NEB STATE
LINE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WITH PRECIP EVENTUALLY COMING TO
AN END THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE END OF
PRECIP IS LOW UNTIL THE ACTUALLY MCS FORMS AND WE GET A BETTER IDEA
OF WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH. BECAUSE OF THIS
HAVE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
WOLTERS
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY WANE WITH FRONT SINKING
SOUTH AND UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING IN. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIODS AGAIN LOOKING DRY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH MAINLY NORTHEAST LOCATIONS FOR POSSIBLE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
COOL MID LEVELS...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF NUISANCE-AT-MOST PRECIP. CLOUD COVER COULD
BE RATHER PREVALENT DESPITE DEEP BUT WEAK DOWNGLIDE AND WILL GO WITH
HIGHS A BIT BELOW MOS. MORE SUN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY THOUGH WEAKER
MIXING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH BEYOND THURSDAYS
EXPECTATIONS.
THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS TRENDING FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH MAIN
IMPACTS LIKELY COMING IN THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PERIODS.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY EARLY SUNDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES WERE REDUCED HERE.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THEIR RANGE...FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
SHARPEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT FOR WARM FRONT/WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIODS. THIS
IS UNDER A DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...BUT IT AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK/COOL. BY TUESDAY...AGAIN BARRING ANY
PERSISTENT DAYTIME CONVECTION...HIGHS SHOULD RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ROLLING
OF THE HIGH PLAINS CAN COME. EXPECT WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LOWER
CIGS AND VCSH/VCTS AS STORMS MOVE MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS LEAVING CIGS BLO 2KFT IN THE MORNING HOURS BUT
EXPECT THEM TO RISE AS STRONGER NE PUSH COMES IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. 67
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
439 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DRASTICALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES WHERE
STORMS CURRENTLY ARE AND WHERE THEY WILL MOVE OVER THE NEXT 3
HOURS. MODELS PLACE THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN MOVE IT EAST DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY SO AM
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THESE CURRENT STORMS WILL MOVE BEFORE
DWINDLING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF A CONCERN FOR WIND/RH MEETING RED
FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER. CONTACTED
THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO WHO BOTH SAID THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
LOOKING AT THE SURFACE MAP HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY WORKING
THEIR WAY INTO SHERMAN...WALLACE...AND GREELEY COUNTIES. NEAR THE
KS/CO BORDER THE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. HOWEVER
FURTHER WEST INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE SPOTTY. NEAR TERM MODELS DISAGREE AS
TO WHETHER THE GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE
LOCATIONS OR REMAIN GUSTY.
WITH THE REPORT OF NEAR CRITICAL FUELS FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES...WAS STRONGLY LEANING TOWARD ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITE. HOWEVER AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY THOSE COUNTIES ARE BARELY MEETING CRITERIA.
WITH THE ADDED UNCERTAINTY OF THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY HIGHLITE UNLESS
WINDS DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIR MASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW COOL TO MAKE IT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN STARTED OUT BEST AT JET LEVEL. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT
AT MID LEVELS. GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIFT GETTING BETTER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL MID LEVEL LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT REALLY DOES
NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR 06Z AND EVEN MORE SO BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT FOR AN EXPECTED GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THEY WANT TO
START PRECIPITATION WITH SOME START IN THE SOUTH AND GOING NORTH
AND VICE VERSA. TENDED TO BELIEVE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SOLUTION MORE
BUT THIS ALSO CAUSED ME TO BROAD BRUSH THE POPS. LOOKS TO BE ALL
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS
AND WHERE. SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD BUT HOW WET REMAINS IN QUESTION.
ENOUGH DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT I DID NOT GO ABOVE HIGH CHANCE.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
NO MATTER HOW WET IT GETS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW COOL TO MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. COOLEST SOLUTIONS...NAM/CANADIAN...KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
NOT READY TO MAKE THAT DRAMATIC OF A PLUNGE BUT DO SEE THE
POSSIBILITY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE
WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. DID LOWER MAXES BUT POSSIBILITY
IS THERE FOR MUCH MORE LOWERING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL AND JET LIFT
AROUND THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH IT DOES NOT WARM UP DURING THE DAY AND HOW FAST IT CLEARS
OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
DEFINITELY SEE A LOT OF 40S AROUND. DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED...DID TOSS IN SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING FOG. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STARTS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE WARMER BUT NOT
TOO MUCH SINCE WIND FIELD IS LIGHT DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH NOT BEING
TOO FAR AWAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AND SURFACE PATTERN/AIR
MASS REORGANIZES AND RECOVERS FROM PREVIOUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
STILL SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCE AND FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT FELT CONTENT IN
LEAVING IT DRY. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT FELT FINE WITH WHAT THE INIT GRIDS GAVE ME.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AS A
RESULT LEFT ALONE WHAT THE CRH INIT GRIDS GAVE ME. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE IT BEING A LITTLE COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE MINS...BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE TO MAKE ME
WANT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION....(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IN THE EARLY TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND MCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG KS/CO BORDER AND SHIFT EAST. BETTER
COVERAGE MAY BE AT KMCK...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL TO INCLUDE
MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LOW CIGS IS AT MCK WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 15Z. KGLD WILL
PROBABLY BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS AREA OF STRATUS...AND CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST WITH STRONGER WINDS LINGERING AT KMCK THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BY TUE MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
407 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF A CONCERN FOR WIND/RH MEETING RED
FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER. CONTACTED
THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO WHO BOTH SAID THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
LOOKING AT THE SURFACE MAP HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY WORKING
THEIR WAY INTO SHERMAN...WALLACE...AND GREELEY COUNTIES. NEAR THE
KS/CO BORDER THE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. HOWEVER
FURTHER WEST INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE SPOTTY. NEAR TERM MODELS DISAGREE AS
TO WHETHER THE GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE
LOCATIONS OR REMAIN GUSTY.
WITH THE REPORT OF NEAR CRITICAL FUELS FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES...WAS STRONGLY LEANING TOWARD ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITE. HOWEVER AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY THOSE COUNTIES ARE BARELY MEETING CRITERIA.
WITH THE ADDED UNCERTAINTY OF THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY HIGHLITE UNLESS
WINDS DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIR MASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW COOL TO MAKE IT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN STARTED OUT BEST AT JET LEVEL. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT
AT MID LEVELS. GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIFT GETTING BETTER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL MID LEVEL LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT REALLY DOES
NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR 06Z AND EVEN MORE SO BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT FOR AN EXPECTED GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THEY WANT TO
START PRECIPITATION WITH SOME START IN THE SOUTH AND GOING NORTH
AND VICE VERSA. TENDED TO BELIEVE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SOLUTION MORE
BUT THIS ALSO CAUSED ME TO BROAD BRUSH THE POPS. LOOKS TO BE ALL
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS
AND WHERE. SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD BUT HOW WET REMAINS IN QUESTION.
ENOUGH DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT I DID NOT GO ABOVE HIGH CHANCE.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
NO MATTER HOW WET IT GETS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW COOL TO MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. COOLEST SOLUTIONS...NAM/CANADIAN...KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
NOT READY TO MAKE THAT DRAMATIC OF A PLUNGE BUT DO SEE THE
POSSIBILITY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE
WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. DID LOWER MAXES BUT POSSIBILITY
IS THERE FOR MUCH MORE LOWERING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL AND JET LIFT
AROUND THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH IT DOES NOT WARM UP DURING THE DAY AND HOW FAST IT CLEARS
OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
DEFINITELY SEE A LOT OF 40S AROUND. DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED...DID TOSS IN SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING FOG. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STARTS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE WARMER BUT NOT
TOO MUCH SINCE WIND FIELD IS LIGHT DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH NOT BEING
TOO FAR AWAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AND SURFACE PATTERN/AIR
MASS REORGANIZES AND RECOVERS FROM PREVIOUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
STILL SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCE AND FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT FELT CONTENT IN
LEAVING IT DRY. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT FELT FINE WITH WHAT THE INIT GRIDS GAVE ME.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AS A
RESULT LEFT ALONE WHAT THE CRH INIT GRIDS GAVE ME. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE IT BEING A LITTLE COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE MINS...BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE TO MAKE ME
WANT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION....(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IN THE EARLY TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND MCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG KS/CO BORDER AND SHIFT EAST. BETTER
COVERAGE MAY BE AT KMCK...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL TO INCLUDE
MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LOW CIGS IS AT MCK WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 15Z. KGLD WILL
PROBABLY BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS AREA OF STRATUS...AND CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST WITH STRONGER WINDS LINGERING AT KMCK THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BY TUE MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW COOL TO MAKE IT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN STARTED OUT BEST AT JET LEVEL. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT
AT MID LEVELS. GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIFT GETTING BETTER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL MID LEVEL LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT REALLY DOES
NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR 06Z AND EVEN MORE SO BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT FOR AN EXPECTED GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THEY WANT TO
START PRECIPITATION WITH SOME START IN THE SOUTH AND GOING NORTH
AND VICE VERSA. TENDED TO BELIEVE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SOLUTION MORE
BUT THIS ALSO CAUSED ME TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS. LOOKS TO BE ALL
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS
AND WHERE. SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD BUT HOW WET REMAINS IN QUESTION.
ENOUGH DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT I DID NOT GO ABOVE HIGH CHANCE.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
NO MATTER HOW WET IT GETS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW COOL TO MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. COOLEST SOLUTIONS...NAM/CANADIAN...KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
NOT READY TO MAKE THAT DRAMATIC OF A PLUNGE BUT DO SEE THE
POSSIBILITY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE
WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. DID LOWER MAXES BUT POSSIBILITY
IS THERE FOR MUCH MORE LOWERING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL AND JET LIFT
AROUND THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH IT DOES NOT WARM UP DURING THE DAY AND HOW FAST IT CLEARS
OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
DEFINITELY SEE A LOT OF 40S AROUND. DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED...DID TOSS IN SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING FOG. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STARTS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE WARMER BUT NOT
TOO MUCH SINCE WIND FIELD IS LIGHT DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH NOT BEING
TOO FAR AWAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AND SURFACE PATTERN/AIR
MASS REORGANIZES AND RECOVERS FROM PREVIOUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
STILL SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCE AND FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT FELT CONTENT IN
LEAVING IT DRY. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT FELT FINE WITH WHAT THE INIT GRIDS GAVE ME.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AS A
RESULT LEFT ALONE WHAT THE CRH INIT GRIDS GAVE ME. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE IT BEING A LITTLE COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE MINS...BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE TO MAKE ME
WANT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION....(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IN THE EARLY TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND MCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG KS/CO BORDER AND SHIFT EAST. BETTER
COVERAGE MAY BE AT KMCK...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL TO INCLUDE
MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LOW CIGS IS AT MCK WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 15Z. KGLD WILL
PROBABLY BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS AREA OF STRATUS...AND CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST WITH STRONGER WINDS LINGERING AT KMCK THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BY TUE MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHEND
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LONG TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN THURSDAY AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR SATURDAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF AND GFS IN TERMS OF HOW THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ECMWF HAS SHORTWAVE DISSIPATING AND RETURNING TO ZONAL FLOW
FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK JET...HOWEVER GFS HAS TROUGH EXTENDING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMING A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH HIGHER JET
SPEEDS FOR THE AREA. LOWER LEVEL JET REMAINS CALM FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 850 MB THETA E VALUES ARE
FORECASTED TO BE BETWEEN 330 AND 335 K...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. LOWER LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE
LOCALLY STRONG FOR THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER THE 850 MB PROFILE IS LESS SUPPORTIVE FOR
CONVECTION WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 315 TO 320 K.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
FORM AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRESENT IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GFS SHOWS DEW
POINTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S WITH SURFACE THETA E VALUES OF 340-345 K. ECMWF HAS LOWER
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...WITH DEW POINT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND
SURFACE THETA E VALUES IN THE 330-335 K RANGE. ENOUGH SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. CAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND LIFTED INDICES OF
BETWEEN -2 AND -4 C. SURFACE LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
REBOUND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
MONDAY...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE STORMS FOR THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT FAIR WEATHER WILL RESUME FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IN THE EARLY TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND MCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG KS/CO BORDER AND SHIFT EAST. BETTER
COVERAGE MAY BE AT KMCK...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL TO INCLUDE
MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LOW CIGS IS AT MCK WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 15Z. KGLD WILL
PROBABLY BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS AREA OF STRATUS...AND CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST WITH STRONGER WINDS LINGERING AT KMCK THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BY TUE MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1223 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SET
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S(F) NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE 50S(F) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY...WITH THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY. THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH A LOW FORMING
WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
HOT 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
AXIS...AROUND +32C INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
NEAR 100 DEGREES OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THE INHERITED
FORECAST ALREADY HAD 99 GOING OUT WEST AND SEE NO REAL REASON TO
CHANGE THIS. THE GREATER QUESTION IS HOW FAR THIS HEAT WILL EXTEND
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. FEEL THE RAP MODEL IS TOO HOT GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORIES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WILL BE FROM AROUND THE
OLD DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH STILL. THE NAM12 MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL
HOLDING INTO 80S ALL THE WAY WEST TO HIGHWAY 283. FOR THE 283
CORRIDOR FROM JETMORE TO DODGE TO ASHLAND WILL BE GOING WITH 93-94F
AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...THE MCS ACROSS WEST TEXAS HAS DISRUPTED
THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW THAT RECOVERS LATER
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING WITH STRONG SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DEWPOINTS
IN THE 54 TO 57F RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2200 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH CLASSIC 90-DEGREE TURNING OF WINDS IN THE 850-500MB LAYER
RESULTING IN 35 TO 42 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM AGL LAYER.
COMBINED...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TWO-INCH DIAMETER OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
LARGER HAIL...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 70 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT
LOOKS QUITE SLIM GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. BY THE TIME THE LCL HEIGHTS LOWER AT THE ONSET OF
SUNSET...STORMS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY GROWN UPSCALE ENOUGH WITH THE
SUPERCELL WINDOW CLOSING. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR THE BEST AREA FOR
A SMALL MCS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAKES SENSE SINCE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN
A TRADITIONAL FAVORED AREA ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS BACA
COUNTY, COLORADO. OTHER SMALLER (YET STILL CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER) ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND TRACK
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHT RISK
AREA LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...BUT LOCALLY IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
(GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF AN ASHLAND TO MONTEZUMA TO JOHNSON
LINE).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY:
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SBCAPE OF AROUND 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 45-50 KN OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DO SHOW ADEQUATE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THERE ARE TWO PROBLEM AREAS THOUGH
WITH THE KINEMATIC PROFILE...FIRST IS WEAK FLOW AROUND 700 HPA AND THEN
WEAK 5-10 KM BULK SHEAR. THE FIRST WILL CUT DOWN ON TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE SECOND COULD INCREASE BENEFICIAL COMPETITION FOR HAIL EMBRYOS AND
CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF CONVECTION
CAN REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. HERE...AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DRIFTING ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAKER BUT THE NAM STILL SHOWS SUFFICIENT POST FRONTAL DEWPOINTS.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS AREA IS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND PERHAPS 70 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONGEALS
INTO A QLCS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE THREATS...SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY:
SFC TO 850 HPA WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL STILL BE UPSLOPE WEDNESDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY COOL AT 12 DEG C (BETWEEN THE 25TH
AND 50TH PERCENTILE). THIS PATTERN FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT OF LINGERING CONVECTION, CLOUD COVER, AND UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE
DECREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S DEG F AND TAPERED
POPS NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS SLIPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
A DRIER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE GFS IS WETTER THAN
THE ECMWF (NO SURPRISE), SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THEN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A SYNOPTIC
WAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS. BY SUNDAY, AMPLIFICATION OF A 500 HPA
RIDGE FAVORS A DRIER FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER THAN IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS FOR WINDS, A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN
COLORADO WILL EDGE EAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, THEN
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 62 88 63 / 20 40 30 40
GCK 97 62 86 61 / 20 30 20 30
EHA 99 62 88 60 / 30 40 30 40
LBL 99 62 90 62 / 40 40 30 40
HYS 88 62 80 60 / 0 40 20 40
P28 89 65 89 63 / 10 40 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TOPEKA KS
1203 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
BOTH THE NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG
INVERSION CAPPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM ANY DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO THINKING IS THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INITIALLY COME FROM ANY CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OUT WEST. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 06Z OR LATER. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY...THINK ELEVATED CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE HI RES
SHORT TERM MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
A COOL START WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE.
THESE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LED TO
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT MADE THIS MORNING FEEL MORE LIKE
EARLY SPRING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
FOR TODAY...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE EXITING UPPER LOW PROGRESSING NORTHEAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SECOND UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. DESPITE SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN DECENT WAA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
MODELS SHOW A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO EASTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS NEAR
THIS SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...EXPECT
MORE INSOLATION AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE A STORMY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND STALLS ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY FAST AND ZONAL AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH...WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK
ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH
IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ACT TO PULL THE SURFACE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
PROVIDING DEEP ASCENT AND PERHAPS SOME ENHANCEMENT TO FOCUSED
AREAS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS LIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE TROUGH
WILL OUTRUN THE CONVECTION... AND STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE ROOTED IN THE ZONE OF REMNANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO THE MOST
UNSTABLE ELEVATED LAYER. IF THIS HAPPENS...COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE DAY SEEMS TO
BE LOW AND PROBABLY LIMITED TO HAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AS THE EVOLUTION OF MORNING CONVECTION WILL
PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SOME TIME FOR ATMOSPHERIC
RECOVERY AFTER EARLY CONVECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE FED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WARM MOIST
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS SO IT MAY NOT BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF ANY EARLY DAY STORMS. WIND
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY...WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE PARCELS WILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY AS OPPOSED TO ELEVATED STORMS.
IF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...WOULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND...AND A LOW END TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IF THE FORECAST
AREA IS LIMITED TO ELEVATED CONVECTION...THEN IT WOULD BE HARD TO
SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
HAIL.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND DEPENDING HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES...AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MAY EXIST VERY NEAR THE
FRONT...PROBABLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WHILE AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
FEEDS OVER THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT...OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS...FOR THURSDAY AND STAY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONAL AND
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S MOST DAYS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S LATE IN THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION. THERE APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR
ELEVATED STORM FORMATION BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...FOR THE INCLUSION
OF SOME VCTS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF THESE STORMS
PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE DEFINITE IN THE TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP. HOWEVER THINKING THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO BRING MVFR CIGS IN JUST YET AS THE MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1202 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
BOTH THE NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG
INVERSION CAPPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM ANY DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO THINKING IS THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INITIALLY COME FROM ANY CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OUT WEST. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 06Z OR LATER. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY...THINK ELEVATED CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE HI RES
SHORT TERM MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
A COOL START WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE.
THESE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LED TO
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT MADE THIS MORNING FEEL MORE LIKE
EARLY SPRING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
FOR TODAY...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE EXITING UPPER LOW PROGRESSING NORTHEAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SECOND UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. DESPITE SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN DECENT WAA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
MODELS SHOW A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO EASTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS NEAR
THIS SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...EXPECT
MORE INSOLATION AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE A STORMY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND STALLS ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY FAST AND ZONAL AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH...WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK
ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH
IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ACT TO PULL THE SURFACE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
PROVIDING DEEP ASCENT AND PERHAPS SOME ENHANCEMENT TO FOCUSED
AREAS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS LIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE TROUGH
WILL OUTRUN THE CONVECTION... AND STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE ROOTED IN THE ZONE OF REMNANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO THE MOST
UNSTABLE ELEVATED LAYER. IF THIS HAPPENS...COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE DAY SEEMS TO
BE LOW AND PROBABLY LIMITED TO HAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AS THE EVOLUTION OF MORNING CONVECTION WILL
PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SOME TIME FOR ATMOSPHERIC
RECOVERY AFTER EARLY CONVECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE FED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WARM MOIST
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS SO IT MAY NOT BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF ANY EARLY DAY STORMS. WIND
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY...WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE PARCELS WILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY AS OPPOSED TO ELEVATED STORMS.
IF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...WOULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND...AND A LOW END TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IF THE FORECAST
AREA IS LIMITED TO ELEVATED CONVECTION...THEN IT WOULD BE HARD TO
SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
HAIL.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND DEPENDING HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES...AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MAY EXIST VERY NEAR THE
FRONT...PROBABLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WHILE AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
FEEDS OVER THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT...OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS...FOR THURSDAY AND STAY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONAL AND
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S MOST DAYS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S LATE IN THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION. THERE APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR
ELEVATED STORM FORMATION BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...FOR THE INCLUSION
OF SOME VCTS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF THESE STORMS
PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE DEFINITE IN THE TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP. HOWEVER THINKING THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO BRING MVFR CIGS IN JUST YET AS THE MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1028 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SET
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S(F) NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE 50S(F) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY...WITH THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY. THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH A LOW FORMING
WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
HOT 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
AXIS...AROUND +32C INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
NEAR 100 DEGREES OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THE INHERITED
FORECAST ALREADY HAD 99 GOING OUT WEST AND SEE NO REAL REASON TO
CHANGE THIS. THE GREATER QUESTION IS HOW FAR THIS HEAT WILL EXTEND
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. FEEL THE RAP MODEL IS TOO HOT GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORIES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WILL BE FROM AROUND THE
OLD DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH STILL. THE NAM12 MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL
HOLDING INTO 80S ALL THE WAY WEST TO HIGHWAY 283. FOR THE 283
CORRIDOR FROM JETMORE TO DODGE TO ASHLAND WILL BE GOING WITH 93-94F
AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...THE MCS ACROSS WEST TEXAS HAS DISRUPTED
THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW THAT RECOVERS LATER
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING WITH STRONG SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DEWPOINTS
IN THE 54 TO 57F RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2200 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH CLASSIC 90-DEGREE TURNING OF WINDS IN THE 850-500MB LAYER
RESULTING IN 35 TO 42 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM AGL LAYER.
COMBINED...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TWO-INCH DIAMETER OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
LARGER HAIL...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 70 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT
LOOKS QUITE SLIM GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. BY THE TIME THE LCL HEIGHTS LOWER AT THE ONSET OF
SUNSET...STORMS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY GROWN UPSCALE ENOUGH WITH THE
SUPERCELL WINDOW CLOSING. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR THE BEST AREA FOR
A SMALL MCS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAKES SENSE SINCE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN
A TRADITIONAL FAVORED AREA ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS BACA
COUNTY, COLORADO. OTHER SMALLER (YET STILL CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER) ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND TRACK
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHT RISK
AREA LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...BUT LOCALLY IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
(GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF AN ASHLAND TO MONTEZUMA TO JOHNSON
LINE).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY:
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SBCAPE OF AROUND 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 45-50 KN OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DO SHOW ADEQUATE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THERE ARE TWO PROBLEM AREAS THOUGH
WITH THE KINEMATIC PROFILE...FIRST IS WEAK FLOW AROUND 700 HPA AND THEN
WEAK 5-10 KM BULK SHEAR. THE FIRST WILL CUT DOWN ON TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE SECOND COULD INCREASE BENEFICIAL COMPETITION FOR HAIL EMBRYOS AND
CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF CONVECTION
CAN REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. HERE...AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DRIFTING ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAKER BUT THE NAM STILL SHOWS SUFFICIENT POST FRONTAL DEWPOINTS.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS AREA IS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND PERHAPS 70 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONGEALS
INTO A QLCS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE THREATS...SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY:
SFC TO 850 HPA WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL STILL BE UPSLOPE WEDNESDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY COOL AT 12 DEG C (BETWEEN THE 25TH
AND 50TH PERCENTILE). THIS PATTERN FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT OF LINGERING CONVECTION, CLOUD COVER, AND UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE
DECREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S DEG F AND TAPERED
POPS NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS SLIPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
A DRIER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE GFS IS WETTER THAN
THE ECMWF (NO SURPRISE), SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THEN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A SYNOPTIC
WAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS. BY SUNDAY, AMPLIFICATION OF A 500 HPA
RIDGE FAVORS A DRIER FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WIND MAGNITUDE AND CONVECTION ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE TAFS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE 20-30 KN THROUGH LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BEST INDICATION FOR IMPACTS TO TERMINALS IN TERMS
OF CONVECTION WILL BE AT KGCK/KDDC THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN
PROB30 THERE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 62 88 63 / 20 20 30 40
GCK 97 62 86 61 / 20 20 30 40
EHA 99 62 88 60 / 30 30 40 50
LBL 99 62 90 62 / 40 40 40 50
HYS 88 62 80 60 / 0 20 20 40
P28 89 65 89 63 / 10 20 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AS OF 0830 UTC SHOWED AN ENHANCEMENT IN WATER VAPOR
FROM A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER WEST TEXAS AND
FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS MCS WAS LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF MOISTURE AND ALSO TIED TO THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE POLAR JET WAS ALSO ACTIVE
WITH A COMPACT, YET FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA.
THIS FEATURE CONTRIBUTED TO LOWERING OF SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE 0800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALED A 997MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WITH 1002MB LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY...WITH THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY. THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH A LOW FORMING
WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
HOT 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
AXIS...AROUND +32C INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
NEAR 100 DEGREES OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THE INHERITED
FORECAST ALREADY HAD 99 GOING OUT WEST AND SEE NO REAL REASON TO
CHANGE THIS. THE GREATER QUESTION IS HOW FAR THIS HEAT WILL EXTEND
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. FEEL THE RAP MODEL IS TOO HOT GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORIES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WILL BE FROM AROUND THE
OLD DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH STILL. THE NAM12 MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL
HOLDING INTO 80S ALL THE WAY WEST TO HIGHWAY 283. FOR THE 283
CORRIDOR FROM JETMORE TO DODGE TO ASHLAND WILL BE GOING WITH 93-94F
AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...THE MCS ACROSS WEST TEXAS HAS DISRUPTED
THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW THAT RECOVERS LATER
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING WITH STRONG SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DEWPOINTS
IN THE 54 TO 57F RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2200 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH CLASSIC 90-DEGREE TURNING OF WINDS IN THE 850-500MB LAYER
RESULTING IN 35 TO 42 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM AGL LAYER.
COMBINED...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TWO-INCH DIAMETER OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
LARGER HAIL...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 70 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT
LOOKS QUITE SLIM GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. BY THE TIME THE LCL HEIGHTS LOWER AT THE ONSET OF
SUNSET...STORMS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY GROWN UPSCALE ENOUGH WITH THE
SUPERCELL WINDOW CLOSING. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR THE BEST AREA FOR
A SMALL MCS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAKES SENSE SINCE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN
A TRADITIONAL FAVORED AREA ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS BACA
COUNTY, COLORADO. OTHER SMALLER (YET STILL CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER) ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND TRACK
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHT RISK
AREA LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...BUT LOCALLY IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
(GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF AN ASHLAND TO MONTEZUMA TO JOHNSON
LINE).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY:
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SBCAPE OF AROUND 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 45-50 KN OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DO SHOW ADEQUATE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THERE ARE TWO PROBLEM AREAS THOUGH
WITH THE KINEMATIC PROFILE...FIRST IS WEAK FLOW AROUND 700 HPA AND THEN
WEAK 5-10 KM BULK SHEAR. THE FIRST WILL CUT DOWN ON TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE SECOND COULD INCREASE BENEFICIAL COMPETITION FOR HAIL EMBRYOS AND
CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF CONVECTION
CAN REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. HERE...AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DRIFTING ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAKER BUT THE NAM STILL SHOWS SUFFICIENT POST FRONTAL DEWPOINTS.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS AREA IS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND PERHAPS 70 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONGEALS
INTO A QLCS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE THREATS...SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY:
SFC TO 850 HPA WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL STILL BE UPSLOPE WEDNESDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY COOL AT 12 DEG C (BETWEEN THE 25TH
AND 50TH PERCENTILE). THIS PATTERN FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT OF LINGERING CONVECTION, CLOUD COVER, AND UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE
DECREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S DEG F AND TAPERED
POPS NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS SLIPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
A DRIER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE GFS IS WETTER THAN
THE ECMWF (NO SURPRISE), SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THEN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A SYNOPTIC
WAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS. BY SUNDAY, AMPLIFICATION OF A 500 HPA
RIDGE FAVORS A DRIER FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WIND MAGNITUDE AND CONVECTION ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE TAFS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE 20-30 KN THROUGH LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BEST INDICATION FOR IMPACTS TO TERMINALS IN TERMS
OF CONVECTION WILL BE AT KGCK/KDDC THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN
PROB30 THERE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 62 88 63 / 10 20 30 40
GCK 97 61 86 61 / 20 20 30 40
EHA 99 62 88 60 / 30 30 40 50
LBL 99 62 90 62 / 40 40 40 50
HYS 88 62 80 60 / 10 20 20 40
P28 89 65 89 63 / 10 20 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS/SHORT/LONG SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AS OF 0830 UTC SHOWED AN ENHANCEMENT IN WATER VAPOR
FROM A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER WEST TEXAS AND
FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS MCS WAS LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF MOISTURE AND ALSO TIED TO THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE POLAR JET WAS ALSO ACTIVE
WITH A COMPACT, YET FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA.
THIS FEATURE CONTRIBUTED TO LOWERING OF SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE 0800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALED A 997MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WITH 1002MB LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY...WITH THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY. THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH A LOW FORMING
WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
HOT 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
AXIS...AROUND +32C INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
NEAR 100 DEGREES OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THE INHERITED
FORECAST ALREADY HAD 99 GOING OUT WEST AND SEE NO REAL REASON TO
CHANGE THIS. THE GREATER QUESTION IS HOW FAR THIS HEAT WILL EXTEND
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. FEEL THE RAP MODEL IS TOO HOT GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORIES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WILL BE FROM AROUND THE
OLD DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH STILL. THE NAM12 MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL
HOLDING INTO 80S ALL THE WAY WEST TO HIGHWAY 283. FOR THE 283
CORRIDOR FROM JETMORE TO DODGE TO ASHLAND WILL BE GOING WITH 93-94F
AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...THE MCS ACROSS WEST TEXAS HAS DISRUPTED
THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW THAT RECOVERS LATER
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING WITH STRONG SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DEWPOINTS
IN THE 54 TO 57F RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2200 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH CLASSIC 90-DEGREE TURNING OF WINDS IN THE 850-500MB LAYER
RESULTING IN 35 TO 42 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM AGL LAYER.
COMBINED...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TWO-INCH DIAMETER OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
LARGER HAIL...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 70 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT
LOOKS QUITE SLIM GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. BY THE TIME THE LCL HEIGHTS LOWER AT THE ONSET OF
SUNSET...STORMS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY GROWN UPSCALE ENOUGH WITH THE
SUPERCELL WINDOW CLOSING. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR THE BEST AREA FOR
A SMALL MCS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAKES SENSE SINCE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN
A TRADITIONAL FAVORED AREA ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS BACA
COUNTY, COLORADO. OTHER SMALLER (YET STILL CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER) ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND TRACK
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHT RISK
AREA LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...BUT LOCALLY IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
(GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF AN ASHLAND TO MONTEZUMA TO JOHNSON
LINE).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY:
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SBCAPE OF AROUND 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 45-50 KN OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DO SHOW ADEQUATE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THERE ARE TWO PROBLEM AREAS THOUGH
WITH THE KINEMATIC PROFILE...FIRST IS WEAK FLOW AROUND 700 HPA AND THEN
WEAK 5-10 KM BULK SHEAR. THE FIRST WILL CUT DOWN ON TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE SECOND COULD INCREASE BENEFICIAL COMPETITION FOR HAIL EMBRYOS AND
CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF CONVECTION
CAN REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. HERE...AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DRIFTING ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAKER BUT THE NAM STILL SHOWS SUFFICIENT POST FRONTAL DEWPOINTS.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS AREA IS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND PERHAPS 70 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONGEALS
INTO A QLCS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE THREATS...SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY:
SFC TO 850 HPA WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL STILL BE UPSLOPE WEDNESDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY COOL AT 12 DEG C (BETWEEN THE 25TH
AND 50TH PERCENTILE). THIS PATTERN FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT OF LINGERING CONVECTION, CLOUD COVER, AND UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE
DECREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S DEG F AND TAPERED
POPS NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS SLIPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
A DRIER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE GFS IS WETTER THAN
THE ECMWF (NO SURPRISE), SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THEN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A SYNOPTIC
WAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS. BY SUNDAY, AMPLIFICATION OF A 500 HPA
RIDGE FAVORS A DRIER FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A DEEP LEE TROUGH MATURES
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 22 TO 26
KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. LATE IN THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THE PREVAILING MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR AN EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS AT GCK
AND DDC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL TODAY
AND TONIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 62 88 63 / 10 20 30 40
GCK 97 61 86 61 / 20 20 30 40
EHA 99 62 88 60 / 30 30 40 50
LBL 99 62 90 62 / 40 40 40 50
HYS 88 62 80 60 / 10 20 20 40
P28 89 65 89 63 / 10 20 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
349 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY IN WEST VIRGINIA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS
ALREADY MOVED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK. ANOTHER ONE IS IN
SW VA AND WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. ON THE RADAR
SCOPE...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NOVA AND N-CENTRAL MD.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA NEAR THE WATERS AND CENTRAL MD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS FORMING BEHIND IT AS REGION
IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH MU CAPE AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. LOW VSBY
IN HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY...SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AS DRIER NW FLOW ENTERS THE MID ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL JET AND
PVA WILL STILL BE PRESENT AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVEN AFTER FROPA PASSES. HRRR AND NAM DEPICTS THESE WELL WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHALLOW LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL CAPE OF AROUND 500J/KG ARE PRESENT
IN FCST SOUNDINGS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS NEAR 80
DEGREES AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS SFC HEATING COMMENCES THIS EVENING SO WILL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AND MAKE WAY FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER
EVENING WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
S/WV ENERGY WL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED...CARVING OUT A TROF
AXIS. AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME...MSTR WL BE INJECTED NWD FM MEX...
SUPPORTING DVLPMNT OF AN INVERTED TROF. WL NEED TO MONITOR HOW
QUICKLY THIS MSTR MAKES IT INTO THE MID ATLC...BUT 00Z GDNC SUGGESTS
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...THERE WL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS WED NGT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CHC OF A SHRA IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...MAYBE INTO
THE NRN SHEN VLY/CATOCTINS...AND LTST GRIDS REFLECT THAT CHANGE.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PCPN INCREASES THRU FRI...AS ONE OR MORE IMPULSES
CONVERGE OVER CWFA. AM LESS CERTAIN ABOUT STABILITY. SETUP WUDNT
FAVOR STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GDNC DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME CAPE
ADVECTING NWD W/IN TROF. AS UPR LOW CATCHES UP TO SFC DISTURBANCE...
THE WHOLE SYSTEM WL BECOME MORE FRONTAL IN NATURE. UNSETTLED CONDS
SHUD HANG ARND TIL THE FNT SWEEPS EWD...WHICH MAY NOT BE TIL SAT NGT
OR SUN.
ANTICIPATED CLDCVR WL PRECLUDE BIG DAYTIME WARM-UPS. FCST MAXT WL BE
NEAR CLIMO. MIN-T WL BE A BIT ABV THAT...SPCLY FRI-SAT MRNG...BASED
ON FCST DEWPTS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE
MORNING. AREAS THAT GET A BREAK FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DROP TO
IFR DUE TO LOW STRATUS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...IAD-CHO TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR SINCE
THEY HAD A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BUT OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION AND HELP MIX THEM OUT. OTHER TERMINALS HAVE BEEN IN
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND HAVE ONLY DROPPED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND USHER IN N-NW WINDS.
LACK OF PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING GUSTS AT THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF FROPA AND GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. LIFTED A SCA FOR SOUTH OF
DRUM PT AND TANGIER SOUND UNTIL 4PM MONDAY.
NW WINDS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY EVENING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT WINDS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS CURRENT SCA AREA MONDAY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ534-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
323 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. THESE ARE
BEING CAUSED BY AN UPPER PV MAX OVER WV THAT IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE EAST. THIS EVOLUTION OF
THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BEST DEPICTED ON THE HRRR MODEL
BASED REFLECTIVITY WHICH HAS DONE A DECENT JOB IN PICKING THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS SO FAR THIS EVENING. WITH REPEATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS THAT SEE 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY MORNING. WITH THE PAST WEEK OF DRY
WEATHER ONLY EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CAT POPS MONDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTRN. ALTHOUGH JUST
ABT ANY PLACE CAN SEE A TSTRM...BEST SPRT WITH HIGHEST INSTAB WILL
BE ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC. LCLLY HVY RAINFALL CONTS. CDFRNT APPRCHS
FROM THE N LATE...BUT WRM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS AHEAD THE THE
BNDRY. HIGHS 75-80.
GIVEN THE HOT / DRY CNDTNS PAST FEW DAYS AND CONVECTIVE TYPE PCPN...
ANY WDSPRD FLOODING NOT XPCTD SO NO FLOOD HEADLINES. SPS`S OR FLS`S
MAY BE NEEDED IF CONVECTION DVLPS OVR THE SAME AREA. WHAT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED ARE THE RIVER LVLS OVR THE NXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE
RUNOFF. WITH A QPF BTWN 1-2 INCHES...SOME DECENT RISES IN LCL RIVERS
ARE LIKELY...BUT NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED ATTM.
LAST IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S MOVES NE ALLOWING CDFRNT TO SAG S ACROSS
FA MON NITE. WND SHFT TO THE NW ALLOWS DRYER AIR TO FILTER IN. PCPN
TAPERS OFF ACROSS NWRN HALF OF FA AFTR MIDNITE BUT LINGERS THRU THE
NITE OVR THE SE. LOWS U50S NRN MOST CNTYS TO M60S SERN AREAS.
MODELS SHOW ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS SERN AREA TUE
MORN. OTW...HIGH PRS TO THE NW RESULTS IN DCRG CLDNS WITH LWR DP TMPS.
HIGHS M-U70S CSTL AREAS.
HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE NITE AND ERLY WED. SOME INCRS IN
CLDNS WED AFTRN AS HIGH LVL MSTR INCRS FROM THE S. LOWS TUE NITE IN
THE 50S. HIGHS WED U70S-L80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WX ACRS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU
MORNG. THEN...THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST EASTERLY THRU SOUTHERLY
FLO...ALNG WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LO PRES AND AN ASSOC
FRNTL BNDRY FM THE W...WILL RESULT IN THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FM LATE THU THRU SAT NGT. SLGT OR SML CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY
LINGER ON SUN...ESPLY OVR SRN HALF OF THE REGION...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LAYING ACRS THE CAROLINAS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S THU MORNG...THEN RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI...SAT AND SUN
MORNGS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S THU...AND IN THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S FRI...SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
S/SW FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT.
PERIODS OF SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TDY WITH A WARM AND MOIST ATM OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. CONDS WILL BE MAINLY VFR/MVFR...WITH IFR PSBL IN
HEAVIER SHWRS. THUNDER IS PSBL AS WELL BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE RAIN WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER CSTL AREAS
DURING THE AFTN...WITH STRATUS PREVAILING OVER ALL AREAS FOR THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
DRY/VFR CONDS RETURN FROM NW TO SE ON TUE (SOME SHWRS/LO CLDS MAY
LINGER THRU TUE MORNG AT KPHF/KORF/KECG AND N/NE WNDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT AT THESE SITES ON TUE AS WELL). DRY/VFR TUE NIGHT THRU
THU IN LIGHTER E/NE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TDY AS HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE TO 5 FT OVER NRN CSTL WTRS
OVRNGT. WITH SEAS THERE CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT AND A SCA IN
EFFECT...WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE FOR NOW AND REEVALUATE LATER
THIS MORNG. OTW...SOUTHERLY FLOW (10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS) WILL CONTINUE TDY AHEAD OF THE FRNT. A
WND SHIFT TO N/NE WILL OCCUR LATE TNGT FOLLOWING THE FROPA. POST-
FRNTAL WNDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS BRIEFLY ERLY TUE...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW WITH IT BEING 3RD PERIOD
AND LO CONFIDENCE WITH A SHORT DURATION. HI PRES THEN BLDS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR TUE AND WED. EXPECT E/NE WNDS GENRLY 10-15 KT
WITH 2-3 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG/JEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN
ONTARIO(NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR) AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN CONFLUENT NW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN LAKES. WITH
CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER
30S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING THE
REGIONAL...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS 850
MB TEMPS IN THE 2C TO 5C RANGE ALLOW MAX READINGS TO REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB ALONG WITH MEAN
MIXING RATIO AROUND 3 G/KG SUPPORT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 20S INLAND...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE.
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWAT VALUES 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN
VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS...PER MODELS 700-400 RH TRENDS...MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS LOW AS MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY
AGAIN DEVELOP...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD FROST
REQUIRING HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH
MID CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IN THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FARTHER EAST...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES WITH THE BETTER
MIXING. HAVE MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT...BUT WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DON/T EXPECT MUCH
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BEST FORCING STILL
CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED IN WISCONSIN...BUT DOES BRUSH THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE 00Z GFS HAS
SHIFTED FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM. WILL NOT INCORPORATE INTO THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCH TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
FARTHER NORTHEAST...THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL KEEP DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR IN PLACE AND SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA DRY OR JUST HAVING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT KEPT VALUES ONLY AROUND
0.3-0.4IN IN THAT AREA AND NOT GOING AS HIGH AS NAM/GFS. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS...EXPECT COOLEST HIGHS OVER
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE
DECREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WILL TRY TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP A
FEW DEGREES...BUT VALUES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY AND GENERALLY SUNNY DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON THE HIGHS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR 70 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW SOON THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR SUNDAY...WHICH PRODUCES CHANCE POPS
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAINLY LIGHT N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLY BY FRIDAY...WHILE A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER FAR
W LAKE SUPERIOR FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FUNNELING
DOWN TOWARD DULUTH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN
ONTARIO(NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR) AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN CONFLUENT NW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN LAKES. WITH
CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER
30S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING THE
REGIONAL...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS 850
MB TEMPS IN THE 2C TO 5C RANGE ALLOW MAX READINGS TO REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB ALONG WITH MEAN
MIXING RATIO AROUND 3 G/KG SUPPORT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 20S INLAND...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE.
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWAT VALUES 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN
VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS...PER MODELS 700-400 RH TRENDS...MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS LOW AS MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY
AGAIN DEVELOP...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD FROST
REQUIRING HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH
MID CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IN THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FARTHER EAST...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES WITH THE BETTER
MIXING. HAVE MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT...BUT WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DON/T EXPECT MUCH
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BEST FORCING STILL
CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED IN WISCONSIN...BUT DOES BRUSH THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE 00Z GFS HAS
SHIFTED FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM. WILL NOT INCORPORATE INTO THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCH TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
FARTHER NORTHEAST...THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL KEEP DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR IN PLACE AND SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA DRY OR JUST HAVING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT KEPT VALUES ONLY AROUND
0.3-0.4IN IN THAT AREA AND NOT GOING AS HIGH AS NAM/GFS. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS...EXPECT COOLEST HIGHS OVER
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE
DECREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WILL TRY TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP A
FEW DEGREES...BUT VALUES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY AND GENERALLY SUNNY DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON THE HIGHS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR 70 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW SOON THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR SUNDAY...WHICH PRODUCES CHANCE POPS
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES DOMINATING. A
STEADY LK BREEZE WIND WL DEVELOP ON MON WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
OTRW...WINDS WL BE LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAINLY LIGHT N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLY BY FRIDAY...WHILE A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER FAR
W LAKE SUPERIOR FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FUNNELING
DOWN TOWARD DULUTH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE DEPICTED ON 0.5 REFLECTIVITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE...FROM WILLMAR TO
JUST WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INDUCED CONVECTION
HAS SLOWLY BEEN ERODING IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE
19Z. HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF PLACEMENT OF SAID SYSTEM...BUT
HAS LACKED ACCURACY ON EROSION. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATE ENTIRE AREA
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND DISINTEGRATE.
THROTTLED BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING WITH DRYING TREND ANTICIPATED
AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TREKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
HALF OF MN ...PER THE GFS40 305K ANAL. MUCH OF MN FA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM 04/06Z-12Z IN
RESPONSE TO PROXIMITY OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 250MB 90KT SPEED MAX
NOTED ENTERING WEST CENTRAL AND NW MN THIS TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS UPGLIDE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON GFS...NAM80 ALSO BRINGS IN
MODERATE UPGLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM 12Z-18Z ON TUE. WITH THAT
SAID ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR FROM
TUESDAY MORNING INTO LATE TUESDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST PRECIP PROGGED
TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS. SE FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TOMORROW AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AS INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL GLIDE THROUGH MN TUE NIGHT INTO WED ON
ITS WAY INTO NRN WI...PUSHING ALONG ITS SFC REFLECTION LOW PRES
CENTER. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE GREAT LAKES MIDDAY WED...BUT A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
DAY THU. THOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WILL NEED TO KEEP SHWRS IN THE FCST GOING INTO THU UNTIL
THIS SYSTEM AS A WHOLE EXITS THE REGION. A PRONOUNCED SLY PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH QPF/S IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND EVEN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
SLANTWISE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO ENHANCE WIDE-SCALE LIFT.
DESPITE THE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE IN THE AREA...INSTABILITY DOES NOT
APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY COMPACT SO
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEFINITIVE LACK OF EVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN THE FCST BUT ITS COVERAGE WILL BE
QUITE MEAGER. WITH THE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS AND THE ZONAL FLOW
OF THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING ACROSS...THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO
AIRMASS CHANGE...MEANING THAT THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE UPR 50S
TO LWR 60S WHILE LOWS HOLD IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CLEARING-OUT PERIOD WILL ENVELOP
THE AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRI EVE AS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE BUT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS...NUDGING INTO THE
UPR 60S FOR FRI. HOWEVER...THE IMPACT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE BRIEF
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPS IN FROM CANADA...BRINGING A
CONGLOMERATION OF LOW PRES CENTERS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
THRU THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PLUMES OF MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS
TROUGH...MAKING FOR ANOTHER EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HIGHS
AROUND 70. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA LATE SUN INTO
MON...THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE APPRECIABLE WARMUP
AND DRYING OUT PERIOD IS COMING FOR THE EARLY-TO-MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOR GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT
TO STATE AS SUCH WITH GREATER CERTAINTY SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
THE MODELS EVOLVE THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
0.5 REFLECTIVITY INDICATING LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/-RW
OVER WEST OF A LINE...FROM AXN TO MKT. TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGHOUT AIRPORT REGION
...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING BUT VERY LIGHT RAIN AND VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TREK EAST. ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER FAR
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE ABOVE SW NE. WITH CONTINUED
HEATING THIS AFTN EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST
KMSP...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KRNH. ANTICIPATE WEAKENING OF
SYSTEM AFT 23Z TIME PERIOD. SE FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
PERIOD...WITH INCREASING MAGNITUDES AFT 13Z ON TUESDAY. MUCH
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL OCCUR AFT 04/12Z OVER
MOST MN AIRPORT LOCATIONS. PREDOMINANT VSBYS/CIGS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF THE VFR VARIETY ...WITH OCNL HIGH END MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAINLY -SHRA.
KMSP...HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO POINT TO INITIATION OF -SHRA ACTIVITY
BY 21Z. ANTICIPATE VERY SHORT PERIOD OF PCPN...WITH VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS INTO TONIGHT. SE FLOW INCREASES MARKEDLY BY TUESDAY
AFTN...AS SFC GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING NEW STORM
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH PREDOMINANT CLOUD DECK/VSBYS WILL BE VFR...COULD
HAVE SHORT PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR VSBYS/CIGS. ALTHOUGH NOT
DEPICTED IN TAF...RAIN SHIELD COULD LAST A FEW HOURS LONGER THEN
CURRENTLY INDICATED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SHORT PERIODS WITH
-SHRA LIKELY. -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 12-15KTS.
WED...MVFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 5KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WIND E 6-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-8KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...AJZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1010 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING STILL HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
H85 DEWPOINT OF 12DEG C. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW PUSH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
KOMA AND KLNK TAFS...HOWEVER GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS FL050-120 WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT. THE STALLED
FRONT NEAR KOMA AND KLNK WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WINDS 10KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO 10 TO
15KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z...
STRETCHING FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO JUST WEST OF HEBRON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO POP UP JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEST OF OMAHA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST WITH HRRR PLACING EMPHASIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT EAST AND SOUTH OF
OMAHA. FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY REACHING
NORTHERN TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED
BY MODELS FOR LIMITED RAIN CHANCE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS STILL SHOW A COLD FRONT COMING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARMING TEMPERATURES
INDICATED AFTER THAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
652 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
ANALYSIS OF THE 19Z MSL DATA SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTED AT A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES...ONE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTH OF VALENTINE TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING NEAR
CHEYENNE. AND ANOTHER NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A CLUSTER OF
CUMULUS WAS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW. THE 18Z SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWED A 35MM PLUME PUSHING TOWARD THE
NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER. SOME INSTABILITY WAS INDICATED ALONG THE
NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CROSS-SECTIONS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BOTH SHOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN RETURN FLOW OVER
THE WARM FRONT BY LATE THIS EVENING IN THE 300-310K LAYER. FROM THE
CROSS-SECTIONS...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FOLDED THETA-E JUST ABOVE THAT LAYER INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY DEEP.
THEREFORE...THE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROBABLY NOT RESULT IN
THUNDER. THE NAM IS INDICATING SOME FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THAT COULD RESULT IN A BROAD BAND OF RAIN
IN THAT AREA. SINCE THERE IS NOT REALLY AN INDICATION OF THE
DEFORMATION ONE WOULD EXPECT TO GENERATE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WE
WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY LOW FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE RAIN SHOULD END OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SAGS BACK TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH IT COULD
CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MID TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE.
THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NERN CWA LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. INHERITED FCST WAS DRY AND WILL
LEAVE IT THAT WAY FOR NOW AS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE
TIMING OF THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE AS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER
COMPARED TO THE NAM SOLN. NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOL LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RIDE NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
COLORADO...WYOMING...WESTERN KS AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...TRANSITIONING EAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
INCREASED PCPN CHANCES.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOC SURFACE LOW...WILL TRACK ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...H85 TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM 22C IN THE NORTHEAST TO 28C IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH
THESE H85 TEMPS...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
PROBABLE. WILL TREND UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE LATEST 12Z MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN IT WAS
5 TO 10 DEG HIGHER WITH ITS MAX T/S SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE PVS 00Z
FCST FROM LAST NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM WAA ALOFT...THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDS
WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO SWRLY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS ACROSS ERN WY AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
AFFECTING SWRN NEB. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACCORDING
TO SOME MODEL SOLNS BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS...VFR
CIGS WOULD SEEM MORE LIKELY. STILL THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS TSTM
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE SRN PANHANDLE AND THROUGH SWRN NEB
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SWRN NEB
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
646 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
KOMA AND KLNK TAFS...HOWEVER GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS FL050-120 WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT. THE STALLED
FRONT NEAR KOMA AND KLNK WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WINDS 10KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO 10 TO
15KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z...
STRETCHING FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO JUST WEST OF HEBRON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO POP UP JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEST OF OMAHA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST WITH HRRR PLACING EMPHASIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT EAST AND SOUTH OF
OMAHA. FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY REACHING
NORTHERN TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED
BY MODELS FOR LIMITED RAIN CHANCE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS STILL SHOW A COLD FRONT COMING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARMING TEMPERATURES
INDICATED AFTER THAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1116 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY
EARLY TUESDAY...STALLING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD...AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT. ONE
OF THESE LOWS MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD 80 DEGREES THIS MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS IN HEAVIER PCP INLAND RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
LOWER. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VERY WARM AND
MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH TODAY. WITH PCP
WATER VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES IN A DEEP NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 70S...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AS MAIN THREAT
AS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH. THE MEAN STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH AND THEREFORE SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHER RES MODELS AND STABILITY
PARAMETERS POINTING TO BEST ACTIVITY UP THROUGH 3PM TO 4PM AND
TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH BEST DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. A FEW PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL RIDE THROUGH THE AREA ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. RUC SHOWED MORE POTENT ONE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AS ANOTHER ONE MOVES UP THROUGH SC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL WILL SEE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXITING THE COAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS AT TIMES. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80 MOST PLACES.
ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL LOCATED A GOOD DISTANCE TO THE WEST
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST PUSHING THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
SHORE EARLY TUES MORNING. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING LEAVING CLOUDS AND AREA OF FOG IN THEIR WAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TUE. FRONTS MOVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WARRANTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR FIRST HALF OF TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. MID LEVEL PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS
QUITE WEAK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION. MID LEVELS
DRY OUT LATER TUE AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN ON WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
SOUTHWEST WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES LATER WED AND
WED NIGHT BUT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM OR
MID LEVEL SUPPORT CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER WED AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK. THU
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED...THOUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS PUSHED INLAND AND
DISSIPATES THU BUT IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.
FRI AND BEYOND THE PREVIOUS INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS EVAPORATED. NOW SEEING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES POPPING UP WITHIN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. LACK OF STEERING AND ENHANCING
FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TAKE
SHAPE...IS GIVING THE GUIDANCE FITS AND KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. IF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IT IS LIKELY TO MEANDER AROUND THE GULF UNTIL
MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRI CAPTURES
IT. ONCE THE TROUGH PICKS IT UP THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PATHS VARY FROM WEST OF THE ILM FORECAST
AREA TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI INTO SAT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSITIONING
FROM TROPICAL TO BAROCLINIC AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.
BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL HELP DRY
THE REGION OUT AND LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS THE PERIOD
ENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. LOW LFC`S COMBINED WITH HEATING TODAY WILL KICK OFF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY...GUSTY IN CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS IT PASSES
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED...ALBEIT
LIGHT. SOME IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL PRODUCE A
MAINLY S TO SSW WIND CLOSER TO 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THIS EVENING...AND FURTHER VEER TO THE W
TO NW DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP DOWN TO TO 10 KTS OR SO TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK TODAY...WITH 3 TO 4 FT...AND A FEW 5
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE NOW A COMBINATION OF A SOMEWHAT DECAYED 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND THE LOCALLY PRODUCED 2 TO 4 FOOT
WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. THE SHORT
PERIOD WIND WAVES HAS NOW BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT.
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE WATERS AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIGHT INTO TUE EVENING. GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED WED
AND WED NIGHT WITH 15 TO 20 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE DAY. GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE AS THE PERIOD ENDS. WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY WED NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE RESPOND TO INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WED...BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST THU AS WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK INTO THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS BARELY EXCEEDING 10 KT.
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST AS GULF
OF MEXICO LOW HAS POTENTIAL TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANY WIND
DIRECTION DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS ALSO IN
QUESTION WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN WEAK
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SOLUTION WITH SPEEDS CAPPED AT 15 KT FOR
NOW. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUESDAY...STALLING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD...AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
OFFSHORE FRONT. ONE OF THESE LOWS MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...MID-LEVEL VORT/IMPULSE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY
FORCING DYNAMICS TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CAROLINAS DURING THESE EARLY MORNING MONDAY HOURS. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES 3 IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES...INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS ONE...INFLUENCING PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT.
CURRENTLY IT IS DRAPED NE-SW ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...FROM THE NE STATES TO THE FLORIDA PAN HANDLE. THE SFC
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ESE DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER S/W TROF. MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ILM CWA LATE TONIGHT AND OFF THE MAINLAND JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DROP
TO CHANCE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INSTABILITY
ALREADY ACROSS THE FA...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AS THE DAYS
INSOLATION INCREASES. LATEST HRRR SFC BASED CAPE ILLUSTRATES THIS
WELL. LATEST NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED
AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA TODAY WITH PWS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...UP TO 15 KT. THEREFORE...WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE HWO...WILL
MAKE NOTE THAT THE USUAL NUISANCE TYPE SHORT DURATION FLOODING OR
PONDING COULD OCCUR.
FOR TODAYS MAX...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO THE LATEST GFS MOS. CLOUDINESS AND PCPN
COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS. ANY REMOTE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD/PCPN
SHIELD TODAY COULD PUSH MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE GFS OUTPUT. MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS AND SEE NO REASON TO
DETOUR FROM THEIR NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY WITH CAA LAGGING BEHIND THE
CFP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TUE. FRONTS MOVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WARRANTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR FIRST HALF OF TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. MID LEVEL PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS
QUITE WEAK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION. MID LEVELS
DRY OUT LATER TUE AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN ON WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
SOUTHWEST WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES LATER WED AND
WED NIGHT BUT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM OR
MID LEVEL SUPPORT CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER WED AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK. THU
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED...THOUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS PUSHED INLAND AND
DISSIPATES THU BUT IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.
FRI AND BEYOND THE PREVIOUS INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS EVAPORATED. NOW SEEING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES POPPING UP WITHIN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. LACK OF STEERING AND ENHANCING
FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TAKE
SHAPE...IS GIVING THE GUIDANCE FITS AND KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. IF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IT IS LIKELY TO MEANDER AROUND THE GULF UNTIL
MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRI CAPTURES
IT. ONCE THE TROUGH PICKS IT UP THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PATHS VARY FROM WEST OF THE ILM FORECAST
AREA TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI INTO SAT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSITIONING
FROM TROPICAL TO BAROCLINIC AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.
BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL HELP DRY
THE REGION OUT AND LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS THE PERIOD
ENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. LOW LFC`S COMBINED WITH HEATING TODAY WILL KICK OFF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY...GUSTY IN CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS IT PASSES
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED...ALBEIT
LIGHT. SOME IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL PRODUCE A
MAINLY S TO SSW WIND AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. IN
THE VICINITY OF MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES PAST THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RELAX THE SFC PG...AND ESPECIALLY JUST
PRIOR TO AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTS PASSAGE AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SW THIS EVENING...AND FURTHER VEER TO THE W TO NW
DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
KT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS SIMILAR IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT OFF THE MAINLAND AT OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TUE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK TODAY...WITH 3 TO 4 FT...AND A FEW 5
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE NOW A COMBINATION OF A SOMEWHAT DECAYED 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND THE LOCALLY PRODUCED 2 TO 4 FOOT
WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. THE SHORT
PERIOD WIND WAVES HAS NOW BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT.
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE WATERS AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIGHT INTO TUE EVENING. GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED WED
AND WED NIGHT WITH 15 TO 20 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE DAY. GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE AS THE PERIOD ENDS. WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY WED NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE RESPOND TO INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WED...BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST THU AS WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK INTO THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS BARELY EXCEEDING 10 KT.
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST AS GULF
OF MEXICO LOW HAS POTENTIAL TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANY WIND
DIRECTION DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS ALSO IN
QUESTION WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN WEAK
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SOLUTION WITH SPEEDS CAPPED AT 15 KT FOR
NOW. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUESDAY...STALLING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD...AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
OFFSHORE FRONT. ONE OF THESE LOWS MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...MID-LEVEL VORT/IMPULSE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY
FORCING DYNAMICS TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CAROLINAS DURING THESE EARLY MORNING MONDAY HOURS. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES 3 IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES...INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS ONE...INFLUENCING PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT.
CURRENTLY IT IS DRAPED NE-SW ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...FROM THE NE STATES TO THE FLORIDA PAN HANDLE. THE SFC
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ESE DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER S/W TROF. MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ILM CWA LATE TONIGHT AND OFF THE MAINLAND JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DROP
TO CHANCE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INSTABILITY
ALREADY ACROSS THE FA...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AS THE DAYS
INSOLATION INCREASES. LATEST HRRR SFC BASED CAPE ILLUSTRATES THIS
WELL. LATEST NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED
AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA TODAY WITH PWS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...UP TO 15 KT. THEREFORE...WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE HWO...WILL
MAKE NOTE THAT THE USUAL NUISANCE TYPE SHORT DURATION FLOODING OR
PONDING COULD OCCUR.
FOR TODAYS MAX...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO THE LATEST GFS MOS. CLOUDINESS AND PCPN
COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS. ANY REMOTE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD/PCPN
SHIELD TODAY COULD PUSH MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE GFS OUTPUT. MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS AND SEE NO REASON TO
DETOUR FROM THEIR NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY WITH CAA LAGGING BEHIND THE
CFP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TUE. FRONTS MOVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WARRANTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR FIRST HALF OF TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. MID LEVEL PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS
QUITE WEAK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION. MID LEVELS
DRY OUT LATER TUE AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN ON WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
SOUTHWEST WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES LATER WED AND
WED NIGHT BUT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM OR
MID LEVEL SUPPORT CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER WED AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK. THU
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED...THOUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS PUSHED INLAND AND
DISSIPATES THU BUT IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.
FRI AND BEYOND THE PREVIOUS INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS EVAPORATED. NOW SEEING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES POPPING UP WITHIN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. LACK OF STEERING AND ENHANCING
FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TAKE
SHAPE...IS GIVING THE GUIDANCE FITS AND KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. IF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IT IS LIKELY TO MEANDER AROUND THE GULF UNTIL
MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRI CAPTURES
IT. ONCE THE TROUGH PICKS IT UP THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PATHS VARY FROM WEST OF THE ILM FORECAST
AREA TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI INTO SAT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSITIONING
FROM TROPICAL TO BAROCLINIC AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.
BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL HELP DRY
THE REGION OUT AND LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS THE PERIOD
ENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WET TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE AS A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TAPS INTO DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA. EARLIER LINE OF STORMS WEST OF THE TERMINALS HAS WEAKENED TO
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO SHRA FOR
KFLO/KLBT EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR INLAND AND IFR/MVFR ALONG THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BREAKOUT AFTER 12Z WITH BETTER
UPPER FORCING AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL WITH TEMPO IFR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS FROM
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...HAVE INDICATED THE TSRA POTENTIAL
WITHIN THAT TIME FRAME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TSRA OR VCTS
OCCURS ANYTIME THROUGHOUT TODAY...AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN S/SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EXCEPT AROUND
OR 10 TO 15 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AFTER 00Z WITH RAIN CHANCES ALSO DIMINISHING AS WELL. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE INLAND TERMINALS BY 06Z TUE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL PRODUCE A
MAINLY S TO SSW WIND AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. IN
THE VICINITY OF MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES PAST THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RELAX THE SFC PG...AND ESPECIALLY JUST
PRIOR TO AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTS PASSAGE AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SW THIS EVENING...AND FURTHER VEER TO THE W TO NW
DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
KT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS SIMILAR IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT OFF THE MAINLAND AT OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TUE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK TODAY...WITH 3 TO 4 FT...AND A FEW 5
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE NOW A COMBINATION OF A SOMEWHAT DECAYED 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND THE LOCALLY PRODUCED 2 TO 4 FOOT
WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. THE SHORT
PERIOD WIND WAVES HAS NOW BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT.
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE WATERS AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIGHT INTO TUE EVENING. GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED WED
AND WED NIGHT WITH 15 TO 20 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE DAY. GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE AS THE PERIOD ENDS. WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY WED NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE RESPOND TO INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WED...BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST THU AS WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK INTO THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS BARELY EXCEEDING 10 KT.
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST AS GULF
OF MEXICO LOW HAS POTENTIAL TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANY WIND
DIRECTION DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS ALSO IN
QUESTION WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN WEAK
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SOLUTION WITH SPEEDS CAPPED AT 15 KT FOR
NOW. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE MAIN PROBLEMS THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE RAIN AND FLOODING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS HAS LED TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...LOCAL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. FLOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOMORROW AS THE
RAIN COMES TO AN END.
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDE...ALTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...00 UTC HRRR...00
UTC RAP. ALSO ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. SOME
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR OR AT ZERO ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS SEEMS TO BE PLAUSIBLE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND A STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER PARKED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...22 UTC HRRR
AND 21 UTC RAP MODELS...INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING IN ERNEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED AND EXTENDED IN
TIME FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATER THIS
EVENING THE LOW WILL DEPART NORTH DAKOTA AND ENTER WESTERN
MINNESOTA BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER AN AREA WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IS
CAUSING EXCESS WATER TO RUN OFF. THIS RUN OFF HAS LED TO SMALL STREAM
AND LOW LAND FLOODING. RUN OFF IS ALSO INFILTRATING THE SOURIS
RIVER BASIN WHERE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION FOR MORE FLOOD RELATED INFORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS CONTINUED HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS
FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON PROPAGATING INTO
MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GUIDANCE FOR ALL FIELDS.
FOR THIS EVENING PRIOR TO SUNSET...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
I-94 CORRIDOR EAST OF BISMARCK AND POINTS SOUTH AS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IS SETTING UP AS WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...FAVORABLE FOR NON-SUPERCELL/LANDSPOUT TORNADOES. THIS
AREA HAS SEEN SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN
SURFACE DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. WITH LARGE
AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE VORTICITY AND LOW LCLS...ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRETCH THE
ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY INTO A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD OR PERHAPS A
WEAK TORNADO.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WITH NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS WHICH PERHAPS RADIATION FOG ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE 12 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
12 UTC ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WITH PAST GFS MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS
STILL FASTER WITH MOVING THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THE RECENT MODEL AGREEMENT GIVES A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL START
FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVE EAST.
MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THIS SYSTEM BEGINS SATURDAY AT 18 UTC WHEN THE
GFS DEVELOPS A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12 UTC SUNDAY.
DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE THE MODELS STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GFS SEVERE
PARAMETERS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SURFACED BASED CAPE ARE ALSO
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF FOR FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HEAVY
DOWN POURS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...FOG AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MOVES
IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. KISN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST TERMINAL TO
BE SUSTAINED IN THE VFR CATEGORY BEGINNING AFTER 03 UTC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...WITH THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY FOR ROLLETTE...PIERCE...SHERIDAN...WELLS
AND FOSTER COUNTIES. FOR THE WATCH AREA...AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES THROUGH THE
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ022-023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
701 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND A STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER PARKED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...22 UTC HRRR
AND 21 UTC RAP MODELS...INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING IN ERNEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED AND EXTENDED IN
TIME FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATER THIS
EVENING THE LOW WILL DEPART NORTH DAKOTA AND ENTER WESTERN
MINNESOTA BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER AN AREA WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IS
CAUSING EXCESS WATER TO RUN OFF. THIS RUN OFF HAS LED TO SMALL STREAM
AND LOW LAND FLOODING. RUN OFF IS ALSO INFILTRATING THE SOURIS
RIVER BASIN WHERE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION FOR MORE FLOOD RELATED INFORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS CONTINUED HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS
FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON PROPAGATING INTO
MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GUIDANCE FOR ALL FIELDS.
FOR THIS EVENING PRIOR TO SUNSET...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
I-94 CORRIDOR EAST OF BISMARCK AND POINTS SOUTH AS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IS SETTING UP AS WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...FAVORABLE FOR NON-SUPERCELL/LANDSPOUT TORNADOES. THIS
AREA HAS SEEN SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN
SURFACE DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. WITH LARGE
AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE VORTICITY AND LOW LCLS...ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRETCH THE
ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY INTO A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD OR PERHAPS A
WEAK TORNADO.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WITH NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS WHICH PERHAPS RADIATION FOG ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE 12 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
12 UTC ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WITH PAST GFS MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS
STILL FASTER WITH MOVING THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THE RECENT MODEL AGREEMENT GIVES A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL START
FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVE EAST.
MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THIS SYSTEM BEGINS SATURDAY AT 18 UTC WHEN THE
GFS DEVELOPS A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12 UTC SUNDAY.
DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE THE MODELS STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GFS SEVERE
PARAMETERS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SURFACED BASED CAPE ARE ALSO
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF FOR FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HEAVY
DOWN POURS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...FOG AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MOVES
IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. KISN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST TERMINAL TO
BE SUSTAINED IN THE VFR CATEGORY BEGINNING AFTER 03 UTC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...WITH THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY FOR ROLLETTE...PIERCE...SHERIDAN...WELLS
AND FOSTER COUNTIES. FOR THE WATCH AREA...AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES THROUGH THE
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ022-023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN PCPN BAND HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 AND HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHEST POPS TO THIS AREA. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE CONVECTION CONTINUES HOWEVER LESS COVERAGE SO TRIMMED
BACK ON POPS THIS AREA. THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF
FA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS HOWEVER CELLS HAVE
WEAKENED OVER PAST HOUR. BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAUSING
BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL NOT CHANGE MINIMUMS. SO
FAR NOT SEEING ANY PROBLEM AREAS FOR FLOODING WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL MAINTAIN
WATCH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL UTILIZE THE LATEST HRRR/RAP FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
20 UTC SURFACE LOW IS SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN WITH ITS WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM NEAR GWINNER
TO BROOKINGS SD. THE STACKED SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ESSENTIALLY
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 06 UTC...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THEREAFTER. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...BUT NARROW
CLEAR SLOT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAMESTOWN TO JUST WEST OF
WAHPETON. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL BE PRONE TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS GREATER LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY/
HELICITY IS REALIZED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED.
TO THE NORTH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM WEST OF MINOT TO NEAR LAKOTA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...
BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. WITH WET/SATURATED
SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST ND...CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE 1 TO 2
INCHES ACCUMULATION FROM DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3 TO 4 PLUS INCHES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15
UTC. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF COOL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING BY
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE ALL AGREEABLE WITH
THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE THE USUAL SPEED AND
PLACEMENT ISSUES. CONTINUED THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS. IT IS
LOOKING DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER OR COOLER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND UPPER WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
TAFS WILL BE A BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT. CIGS PRIMARILY VFR WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE MVFR/IFR
CIGS PREVAIL. BINOVC BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SO
MAY SOME AREAS LIFTING INTO VFR. MOST STEADY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TO AND TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPOTTY TSRA
CONTINUES ACROSS S 2/3RD`S OF FA AND WILL REMAIN SO NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ALREADY WET
SOILS DUE TO RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...OVERLAND FLOODING
AND FLOODING NEAR AREA RIVERS ARE A CONCERN.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE.
MOST TRIBUTARIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RED RIVER BASIN
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE TWO RIVERS RIVER
AT HALLOCK EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW OR
THURSDAY. CONTINUED INFLOW INTO THE RED IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL
RISES BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVER STAGES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026>030-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH MAINLY 700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PROPAGATES AWAY
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA...AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR EAST THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT...AND
IF IT WILL STAY TOGETHER OR BREAK APART. FOLLOWING THE 12Z HRRR AS
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS BAND TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THIS BAND AND
GRADUALLY LOWERED COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 03Z...AND MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST (WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN THE FORECAST). CURRENT
TEMPERATURE VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY (WHERE SKY IS
CLEAR) ARE A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED DIURNAL TREND. WILL
RAISE MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS A RESULT...BUT THICKENING
CLOUDS SHOULD STILL LIMIT THINGS A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
LOWEST TEMP AS OF 08Z WAS 31 AT MNDOT SITE NEAR WASKISH AND 32 AT
SHOOKS ALL IN FAR EASTERN BELTRAMI COUNTY MN. WILL MAINTAIN FROST
ADV THRU 12Z.
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF 500 MB SYSTEMS IN WESTERN MONTANA WITH RAIN
INTO CENTRAL MONTANA AND A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO FAR SW ND
AND WRN SD MORE IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE RETURN AT 850-700MB. FOR
TODAY...WILL SEE INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH
INCREASE IN THE 850-700MB MOISTURE SPREAD EAST...THOUGH FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ALL DAY AS DRY
AIR JUST WEST OF AN UPPER LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO BLOCKS MOISTURE
FROM MOVING IN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO AREAS FROM
SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE TOWARD VALLEY CITY-FORMAN 15-18Z PERIOD WITH
RISK OF SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH LIMITED POPS
THRU 23Z GENERALLY SOUTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND FORKS TO WADENA LINE.
TONIGHT WILL SEE UPPER LOW MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND WITH 40KT LOW
LEVEL JET INTO SCNTRL-SE ND AND SHOWWALTERS TO NEGATIVE 3 AND A
COUPLE HUNDRED MUCAPE 06Z-12Z TUE. THUS SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY IN THIS REGION AND AGREE WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME HEAVIER
QPF CONCENTRATED IN SE ND. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO
SCNTRL ND TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED COUPLE HUNDRED MUCAPE AND
NEGATIVE SHOWWATLERS INTO SE ND AND THUS BETTER BET FOR CONVECTION
AND A BIT HEAVIER QPF IN THAT REGION. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FCST AREA AND KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS
MUCH LOWER CAVALIER OVER TOWARD BAUDETTE. GOOD NEWS OVERALL IS
THAT MOISTURE THIS TIME AROUND NOT AS DEEP WITH DEW PTS ONLY IN
THE 50S AND PWATS BARELY OVER AN INCH...COMPARED TO OVER 1.50
INCHES IN THE LAST UPPER LOW EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVE THRU SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN TUES NIGHT WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONCENTRATE BEST RAIN IN THAT AREA. TOTAL
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 1.30 INCHES IN REGION
SOUTH OF A DVL-GFK-PKD LINE...TAPERING TO UNDER HALF INCH LANGDON
TO ROSEAU AND BAUDETTE. SRN FCST AREA CAN HANDLE MORE RAIN THAN
THE NRN VALLEY. WILL FRESHEN UP THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK THAT WAS
ISSUED SUNDAY AFTN...BUT MODEL TRENDS FOLLOW CLOSELY FROM WHAT WAS
SHOWN YESTERDAY.
UPPER LOW AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME CLEARING ENTERING NE ND WED AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM OF THE EARLIER PERIODS WILL BE JUST
EAST OF THE CWFA. GEM AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER
FAR EAST. WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
HAVE OPTED FOR CONSENSUS BLEND THAT IS DRY. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GEM/ECMWF SHOWING LOW POPS
TARGETING THE WEST WITH UPPER WAVE. GFS IS THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND
WOULD ARGUE THAT FRIDAY WOULD BE DRY.
BLOCKY PATTERN IS THE REASON FOR DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN MODELS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS FORCES A REX TYPE BLOCK TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH FORCES ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAS LESS BLOCKING AND MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE DIGGING
INTO AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO NORTH DAKOTA. DGEX IS QUITE WOUND
UP BY 00Z SUNDAY.
IN EITHER EVENT ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSING THE CWFA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH RELATIVELY COLD 700MB TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY JUNE...CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND VARIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED THE BLENDS WITH
POP.
GENERALLY SPEAKING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW MEDIAN VALUES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES. VARIANCES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH WINDS TURNING EASTERLY TO 10-15KTS OVER ERN ND. SOME
SHOWERS STARTING THIS EVE AT DVL/FAR WITH SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING
EAST OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS THRU 12Z TUES...BUT
SOME MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AFTER 06Z TUE AT FARGO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON AND THE FOREST AT MINTO CONTINUE TO FALL
ABOUT AS FORECAST. GRAFTON JUST A TAD SLOWER AND MINTO A BIT FASTER.
AT NECHE...THE PEMBINA RIVER MADE IT BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUES ITS RAPID RECESSION. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT
HALLOCK HAD A FLAT CREST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND IS
FALLING SLOWLY. IT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO MID WEEK.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO CONTINUED ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING CONTINUES EAST
OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN AS DRAINAGE
IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE USUAL
VARIATIONS DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE. ISOLATED 2 INCH RAINFALLS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXCEPT IN ISOLATED CASES THE AREA SOUTH OF THE I-94 / U.S. 10
CORRIDOR HAS BEEN THE DRIEST THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEKS. THE FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME RISES TO AREA RIVERS... WITH
THE IMPACTS DEPENDENT ON TOTALS...AREAL COVERAGE AND RATE OF FALL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE WEEK...AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO OUR AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...STILL A FEW SHWRS LINGERING IN THE N-CENTRAL SC
ATTM...BUT OVERALL...THINGS ARE QUIET. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 745 PM...POPS WERE FURTHER CUT BACK FOR THIS EVENING PER RADAR
AND SAT TRENDS. I DID NOT REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...AS NAM STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTBY
WHILE ATOP INCREASING SELY MOIST LLVL FLOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT
BE AS GOOD AS LAST COUPLE NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...SO WILL
KEEP POPS AT SLGT CHC. OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK.
AS OF 430 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX RIGHT
OVER THE CWFA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ALL
SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE BEHIND THIS VORT...WHICH MAY EXPLAIN
WHY SUCH A HEALTHY CU FIELD ON VIS SAT IS NOT DEVELOPING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE LAPS CAPE IN THE NC MTNS AND NW PIEDMONT ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...WHILE THE UPSTATE AND NE GA HAVE
1000 J/KG TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ALONG SE BORDER OF CWFA. THE CAE RADAR
SHOWS A NWWD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BNDRY APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDLANDS. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS AGREE ON A FEW SHWRS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OUTFLOW...GENERALLY AFT SUNSET. SO I HAVE TRIMMED POP BACK
TO JUST SLGT CHC...FAVORING THE NC MTNS AND THE LWR PIEDMONT CLOSE
TO THE OUTFLOW BNDRY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET EVENING. THE REST
OF THE GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK.
AT 230 PM EDT...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE REMAINS OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
ENE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO ENE...INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT PROFILES ARE NOT CAPPED ON WEDNESDAY.
VERY LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK MID
LEVEL CAP. ALTHOUGH FLOW BECOMES MORE ORTHOGONAL TO ELEVATED TERRAIN
WITH TIME...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LOWERS THE CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHETHER THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF
THE FRONT DRIFTING NORTH...OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE SURGING INTO OUR
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
REMAINS IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED
ON WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING UPSLOPE FLOW AND NO CAP ALOFT SUPPORT A
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL..WITH MAXIMUMS
WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS COVER INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE OHIO
AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WED NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS WRN NC
WED EVENING. THE WAVE ACTUALLY HAS CONVECTIVE ORIGINS AND IT SHOWS
UP WELL ON THE 12 UTC GFS INITIALIZATION AND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE ERN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST WITH A VERY WEAK LOOKING WEDGE SIGNATURE OVER THE
REGION...THOUGH THIS COULD BE MORE THE RESULT OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROUGH. AT ANY RATE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE WEAK OVER THE
REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVER THE SOUTH...AND 10 TO 15
KTS OVER WRN NC. BUT PW/S WILL INCREASE TO 150-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. THIS KIND OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND I
HAVE POPS ACTUALLY INCREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATER AT
NIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ANY CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER
OFF. CONSIDERING THE HIGH PW/S THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
THE GFS TAKES ANOTHER MCV ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL LOW SLOWLY
ORGANIZING NEAR THE NRN YUCATAN SHOULD BEGIN MOVING UP...OR AT LEAST
TOWARED...THE SE COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
TRACKING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MUCH TOO
FAR TO THE WEST...EXHIBITING IT/S USUAL PROBLEMS WITH TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IF IT WERE TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-LANDS WHILE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING A SWATH OF HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WRN CAROLINAS. IT
APPEARS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME THAT WE WILL BE CONTENDING
MORE WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD STILL BRING PLENTY
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AND JUST ADD ANOTHER WRINKLE...IF THE GULF LOW WERE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED...SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE LOW COULD ACTUALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE REGION STARTING LATER ON THU.
BY FRIDAY THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM A WAYS TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH
THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF IS ALMOST 18 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY OUR MOST
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS FROM THE LOW WOULDN/T BE UNTIL FRIDAY. I
ORIGINALLY WROTE THIS SAYING THAT WE WOULD FACE A SEVERE THREAT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF...THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FRIDAY
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS FAIRLY UNSETTLED.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW TRACK...BRINGING IT FARTHER EAST AND
MINIMIZING EFFECTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING DURING THE SAME PERIOD...PRECIPITATION LOOKS
FAIRLY LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY. POPS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND A SECONDARY FRONT
PASSES ON SUNDAY. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO BE CAPPED
FAIRLY WELL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND AND FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TO THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ELY/SELY LLVL FLOW WILL BRING BACK MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHUD RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY
DAYBREAK...BUT COULD BE AS LOW AS IFR. A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN OUTFLOW BNDRY LIFTS NW INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND
UPSTATE...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
TAF. GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTN...SO A PROB30 FOR
TSRA WILL BE ADDED. CIGS SHUD LIFT/SCATTER TO VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR A ENE DIRECTION THRU DAYBREAK...THEN SHIFT TO MORE ESE
THRU THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...ALL SITES EXPECTED TO HAVE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DEVELOPING STRATUS AND/OR FOG. AS USUAL...ACTUAL
LEVEL OF CIGS AND REDUCTION OF VSBY AT EACH SITE STILL UNCERTAIN.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE UPSTATE AND SRN MTNS
SOUTH OF KAVL. STILL THINK COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT
TAF SITES ATTM. GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTN...SO PROB30
AT ALL SITES. RESTRICTIONS SHUD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY IN A PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RETURN TO
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THU-SAT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 94% HIGH 90% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 79% HIGH 89% HIGH 90% HIGH 91%
KHKY HIGH 87% HIGH 87% HIGH 90% HIGH 89%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 83% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH/VISIN
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JOH/VISIN
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE WEEK...AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO OUR AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...POPS WERE FURTHER CUT BACK FOR THIS EVENING PER RADAR
AND SAT TRENDS. I DID NOT REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...AS NAM STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTBY
WHILE ATOP INCREASING SELY MOIST LLVL FLOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT
BE AS GOOD AS LAST COUPLE NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...SO WILL
KEEP POPS AT SLGT CHC. OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK.
AS OF 430 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX RIGHT
OVER THE CWFA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ALL
SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE BEHIND THIS VORT...WHICH MAY EXPLAIN
WHY SUCH A HEALTHY CU FIELD ON VIS SAT IS NOT DEVELOPING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE LAPS CAPE IN THE NC MTNS AND NW PIEDMONT ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...WHILE THE UPSTATE AND NE GA HAVE
1000 J/KG TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ALONG SE BORDER OF CWFA. THE CAE RADAR
SHOWS A NWWD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BNDRY APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDLANDS. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS AGREE ON A FEW SHWRS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OUTFLOW...GENERALLY AFT SUNSET. SO I HAVE TRIMMED POP BACK
TO JUST SLGT CHC...FAVORING THE NC MTNS AND THE LWR PIEDMONT CLOSE
TO THE OUTFLOW BNDRY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET EVENING. THE REST
OF THE GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHETHER THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF
THE FRONT DRIFTING NORTH...OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE SURGING INTO OUR
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
REMAINS IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING UPSLOPE FLOW AND NO CAP ALOFT
SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL..WITH MAXIMUMS
WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS COVER INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE OHIO
AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WED NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS WRN NC
WED EVENING. THE WAVE ACTUALLY HAS CONVECTIVE ORIGINS AND IT SHOWS
UP WELL ON THE 12 UTC GFS INITIALIZATION AND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE ERN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST WITH A VERY WEAK LOOKING WEDGE SIGNATURE OVER THE
REGION...THOUGH THIS COULD BE MORE THE RESULT OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROUGH. AT ANY RATE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE WEAK OVER THE
REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVER THE SOUTH...AND 10 TO 15
KTS OVER WRN NC. BUT PW/S WILL INCREASE TO 150-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. THIS KIND OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND I
HAVE POPS ACTUALLY INCREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATER AT
NIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ANY CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER
OFF. CONSIDERING THE HIGH PW/S THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
THE GFS TAKES ANOTHER MCV ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL LOW SLOWLY
ORGANIZING NEAR THE NRN YUCATAN SHOULD BEGIN MOVING UP...OR AT LEAST
TOWARED...THE SE COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
TRACKING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MUCH TOO
FAR TO THE WEST...EXHIBITING IT/S USUAL PROBLEMS WITH TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IF IT WERE TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-LANDS WHILE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING A SWATH OF HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WRN CAROLINAS. IT
APPEARS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME THAT WE WILL BE CONTENDING
MORE WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD STILL BRING PLENTY
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AND JUST ADD ANOTHER WRINKLE...IF THE GULF LOW WERE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED...SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE LOW COULD ACTUALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE REGION STARTING LATER ON THU.
BY FRIDAY THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM A WAYS TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH
THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF IS ALMOST 18 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY OUR MOST
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS FROM THE LOW WOULDN/T BE UNTIL FRIDAY. I
ORIGINALLY WROTE THIS SAYING THAT WE WOULD FACE A SEVERE THREAT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF...THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FRIDAY
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS FAIRLY UNSETTLED.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW TRACK...BRINGING IT FARTHER EAST AND
MINIMIZING EFFECTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING DURING THE SAME PERIOD...PRECIPITATION LOOKS
FAIRLY LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY. POPS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND A SECONDARY FRONT
PASSES ON SUNDAY. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO BE CAPPED
FAIRLY WELL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND AND FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TO THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ELY/SELY LLVL FLOW WILL BRING BACK MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHUD RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY
DAYBREAK...BUT COULD BE AS LOW AS IFR. A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN OUTFLOW BNDRY LIFTS NW INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND
UPSTATE...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
TAF. GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTN...SO A PROB30 FOR
TSRA WILL BE ADDED. CIGS SHUD LIFT/SCATTER TO VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR A ENE DIRECTION THRU DAYBREAK...THEN SHIFT TO MORE ESE
THRU THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...ALL SITES EXPECTED TO HAVE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DEVELOPING STRATUS AND/OR FOG. AS USUAL...ACTUAL
LEVEL OF CIGS AND REDUCTION OF VSBY AT EACH SITE STILL UNCERTAIN.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE UPSTATE AND SRN MTNS
SOUTH OF KAVL. STILL THINK COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT
TAF SITES ATTM. GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTN...SO PROB30
AT ALL SITES. RESTRICTIONS SHUD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY IN A PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RETURN TO
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THU-SAT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 96% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 99% HIGH 82% HIGH 96% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 91% HIGH 82% HIGH 93% HIGH 90%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 93% HIGH 87%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 99% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 79% HIGH 93% HIGH 97%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH/VISIN
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JOH/VISIN
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING OVER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM...CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT SHRAS AND
POSSIBLY TSRA WILL REMAIN OVER THE CLT METRO AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE PRE DAWN PERIOD. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS
THROUGH 12Z...THEN INDICATE A DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE
CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN OR FLASH FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER TERRITORY THAT OBSERVED 2 TO 3
INCHES LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
AS OF 1030 PM...THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND THE RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE
THE UPR LVL VORT MAX A LTL OVER HALFWAY THRU THE CWFA. THE LEADING
CONVECTION IS ABOUT THRU THE SE CORNER OF THE FA (UNION NC)...AND
BEHIND THIS...VERY LITTLE IS SEEN ON RADAR. LOOKING AT THE 12Z
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS...IT SEEMS THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING ATOP A MOIST AIR MASS AND CONTINUED SWLY 850 MB
FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...WILL KEEP A DECENT CHC POP THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE COOLED FROM THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO MAINLY UPR 60S
ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...AND THEY WILL PROBABLY HOLD AROUND THOSE
READINGS OVERNIGHT.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
ALONG WITH DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE MAY WELL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP OR WASHES OUT. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH A SHEAR AXIS OUT OVER INTERSTATE 77 WHERE THE BEST CHC OF
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A RELATIVELY LOW DIURNAL TEMP TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY MON NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDING SHOWING GOOD MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION ON TUE IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW. THEREFORE...I KEPT THE
FORECAST MOSTLY DRY MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
UPSLOPE PRECIP IN THE MTNS.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFT EAST. THE CENTER OF
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WED WITH ITS SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO JUICY CONDITIONS WITH PW VALUES REACHING NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY WED
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATES THAT CAPPING INVERSION WILL WEAKEN
AND SURFACE TO 700 MB LAYER WILL BECOME SATURATED. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK SBCAPE OF 300-500 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT.
HENCE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF NOON SUNDAY...AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO
THE EC.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING
START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE
TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROF EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...PROXIMITY TO A BUILDING TROPICAL
FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL YIELD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THUS...EXPECTING INCREASES IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MARINE AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THEREFORE WENT WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON A DIURNAL HEATING TYPE PATTERN.
WOULD LIKE TO NOTE THAT POPS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND COULD CHANGE AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TROPICAL
FORMATION...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE.
WITH RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THERE IS BROAD MODEL
DISCONTINUITY REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE GFS
SEEMS TO TREND WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GULF MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN WEAKENING FURTHER AS
ITS REMNANTS CROSS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WHERE IT DISSIPATES. THE
ECMWF TAKES THE SAME TRACK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT KEEPS A MUCH
MORE ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF SHORE NEAR SAVANNAH
GEORGIA...AND BRUSHING THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE EJECTING OUT TO SEA WITH THE
UPPER TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A
VCTS...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE PRE DAWN PERIOD.
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 9Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS...MVFR CLOUDS AND VIS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE SHRA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SCT IFR TO MVFR CEILING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE...MIXING TO VFR BY MID DAY. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT...MAY PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
20-23Z. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...KAVL...KGUM...KGSP...KHKY WERE OBSERVING LIFR CEILINGS
AT 6Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
KHKY. KAND IS THE ONLY VFR SITE AT 6Z...BUT TRENDS INDICATE THAT
MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP BY 7Z...WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING IFR BY
9Z. OVERALL...TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF AN AREA OF SHRA ACROSS
THE CLT METRO AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING TO MID DAY. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT...MAY PASS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON. A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING UNDER HIGH PRES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
TUE BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY OVER THE SFC HIGH MID TO LATE
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT MED 74% MED 74% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 62% HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 75% MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 71% MED 78% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU LOW 46% MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 72% MED 72% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
957 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CANCELLATION OF SVR
TSTM WATCH 277 FOR SRN TX PNHDL.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WHILE A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS OR 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE EITHER A VCTS OR TEMPO GROUP AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MVFR FOR CEILINGS AS LOWER CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE..
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 277.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK WHILE THE
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL TX/OK PANHANDLES. LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
EVENING. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITHIN A 200 MI RADIUS OF KAMA ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CU DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM. LIKE
YESTERDAY HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. EVENING POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AS LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE NEAR THE
FRONT AND DRYLINE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. FURTHERMORE A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET MAY
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD LATER IN THE DAY WED AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AMA CWA...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW
LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER UPSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER SO THE INTENSITY OF DIURNAL
HEATING WILL NOT BE AS GREAT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM...
HAVE DECREASED STORM CHANCES THURS DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH
THE UPPER AIR WX PATTERN DISPLAYING A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES IN THE
EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
POPS WITH THE THINKING THAT ANY CONVECTION FORMING ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
BEYOND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MID WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL QUITE A
WAYS OUT IN TIME.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT...THEREBY PRECLUDING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEK. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD SO ITS LIKELY SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE VERY LITTLE OR NOT EVEN ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
112 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR. A LIGHT VEERING BREEZE TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN OVERNIGHT SUB-3K FT DECK WITH ISOLATED
EARLY AM SHALLOW FOG...BUT ANTICIPATING MORE WIDESPREAD LONGER
DURATION VFR (SCT) WITH SHORT-LIVED MVFR (BKN) CEILINGS AROUND
PUSH TIME. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 13Z SURFACE SHOWS THAT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WAS MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPPER
AIR SURFACES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
WOULD EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS COUPLED
WITH THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THAT THE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THE
LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. THE EXCEPTION TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS THAT LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BAYS MAY ONLY
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. FOR NOW DO NOT EXPECT SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO HAVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S.
UPDATE FORTHCOMING FOR TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY...AND WINDS...AND
TO DROP MENTION OF FOG.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 93 71 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 70 93 71 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 88 77 87 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1022 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 13Z SURFACE SHOWS THAT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WAS MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPPER
AIR SURFACES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
WOULD EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS COUPLED
WITH THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THAT THE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THE
LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. THE EXCEPTION TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS THAT LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BAYS MAY ONLY
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. FOR NOW DO NOT EXPECT SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO HAVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S.
UPDATE FORTHCOMING FOR TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY...AND WINDS...AND
TO DROP MENTION OF FOG.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 69 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 70 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 75 88 77 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A BIT OF A LULL COMING IN THE RAIN...BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME MARGINAL STABILITY IS SEEN IN THE RADAR
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POST THE RAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AT
THIS TIME. HAVE TIMED A BACK EDGE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EXITING CENTRAL WI BY MIDNIGHT.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL REDEVELOPMENT TAKE. HAVE BEEN
MONITORING THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING EJECTING EAST
AND EXCITING THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IN CO. THIS WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SPOKE AROUND THE WHEEL OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL/MOVE THE LOW
EASTWARD AND WORK WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN
DEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNRISE. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS DEPICTED IN
THE LATEST RAP AND 05.00Z NAM TO BECOME CONFLUENT ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE IN WRN IA AND WRN MN SHIFT
EAST. KMPX 00Z RAOB ON ERN EDGE OF THAT TONGUE NOW WITH SATURATION
DOWN TO 900MB...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOWER CEILINGS IN
THE NEAR IFR CATEGORY WEST OF I-35. AS THIS ADVECTS EAST AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT
ALOFT...SHRA SHOULD AGAIN BREAK OUT IN THE WRN FORECAST AREA...AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A BAND OF SHRA SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM SW-NE BY
MORNING...AND SHIFTING EAST. HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE THIS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH INSTABILITY STILL AROUND SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED LIFT KICKS IN.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD THEN SEE A BREAK AFTER THE MORNING SHRA SHIFT
EAST. DEPENDING ON IF THE SUN COMES OUT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY /CURRENTLY ALONG DAKOTAS-MN
BORDER/ SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS/SHRA EXISTS BY AFTERNOON. RIGHT
NOW...IT SEEMS CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE BOUNDARY VERY CLOSE TO THE
MISS RIVER OR SLIGHTLY WEST...AROUND AFTERNOON AND THE WIND SHIFT MOVING
VERY SLOWLY AS THE LOW TRANSLATES SE. 05.00Z NAM HAS REDUCED THE
CAPE BY 50 PERCENT VERSUS 04.18Z RUN...IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
REALLY MAKES SENSE...IT HAS LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WHICH
IS REASONABLE. WIND SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT CAPE SEEMS TO BE QUITE
LOW...500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW AND HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME
CURVATURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT
SEVERE STORM THREATS LOOK QUITE MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW IS ON THE PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER WITH THIS RAIN.
CURRENTLY...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ANALYZED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL IOWA.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE POKING UP INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA PER 04.18Z RAP ANALYSIS. BECAUSE OF THIS...THUNDER
HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CELLS TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN GREATLY LIMITED FROM GREEN BAY WEST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE RAIN HAS NOT LET UP FOR MUCH
OF TODAY.
AS THIS FIRST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATER IN THE EVENING. DEEP LIFT WILL
OCCUR AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH. WHILE THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THAT CAN HEAT UP A BIT. A NARROW CHANNEL
OF 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE DOES APPEAR TO FORM
AHEAD OF THIS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND COULD LEAD TO SOME
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THIS LINE. THIS IS ALL CONDITIONAL UPON
SKIES CLEARING OUT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY UP HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS DECENT AT 40
KTS...BUT IS UNIDIRECTIONAL ALOFT WITH NOT MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ZERO. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRENDING THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE MID TO SURFACE LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE IN WITH IT. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
WHILE THE OVERALL IDEA FOR THE 500MB PATTERN IS SIMILAR GOING INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO
THE REGION...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES OF THIS VORT MAX
BETWEEN THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM. THE 04.12Z ECMWF DIVES THE
TROUGH FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH WHICH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 04.12Z GFS/GEM TAKE THE
TROUGH MORE WEST TO EAST AND KEEPS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHICH SOLUTION
WILL BE CORRECT...THEY ALL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TIMING OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDING ON SUNDAY
THOUGH THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING A TAD SLOWER WITH THE CLEARING.
NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS LIFTS A WARM FRONT
BACK INTO THE REGION. LEFT SOME SMALL CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A COUPLE OF PASSING MID LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING. CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INITIALLY
START OUT VFR...BUT AS THE -SHRA/-RA CONTINUES AND THE LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
THIS EVENING THEN INTO MVFR/IFR FOR LATER TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
INSTABILITY THRU TONIGHT WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH TSRA LOOKING TO BE
ISOLATED. LEFT TSRA/CB MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...BUT IF ONE WAS
TO OCCUR THE TIME OF GREATER CHANCE WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THRU TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ADDED MVFR BR TO KRST AFTER 03Z AND TO KLSE AFTER 08Z. THESE
MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE WED MORNING WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS AND A REMNANT SFC LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
437 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRE-DAWN...SURFACE BOUNDARY DELINEATIONS HARD TO DECIPHER WITH LIGHT
AND VRBL WIND FIELDS SEEN ON OVERNIGHT ANALYSIS. A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL DEW POINT GRADIENT REMAINS TO THE N ALONG THE BORDER OF
THE CAROLINAS. LATEST RUC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE
OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE N OF I-16 IN SE GEORGIA. AT
925 MB...MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER RIVER BUT LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WERE
N OF THERE IN CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE SEE AN
EXPANSION OF THESE CONVECTIVE RAINS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED A BIT OVERNIGHT INLAND FROM U.S. 17 IN SOUTH
CAROLINA...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR TO MID
MORNING.
THE RECENT TRENDS TOWARD WETTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
CONDITIONS RIPE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL BEGIN THE DAY
WITH PLENTY OF LAYERED CLOUDINESS...FROM STRATUS TO MID CLOUDS TO
HIGH CLOUDS. THE STAGNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO FOCUS
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC WHILE A SHORT WAVE OVER ALABAMA AND NORTH
GEORGIA BRUSHES TO THE NW. UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
MODELS INDICATE UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. INSOLATION
UP TO MAX HEATING TODAY MAY BE TEMPERED BY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ANCHOR MANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZE
TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH NUMEROUS
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND MODERATE DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY. ATTENTION
REALLY TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE CONVECTION. LIKE WE
HAVE SEEN ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD BE
PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCERS LOCALLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN
REALIZE SOME GOOD MORNING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. BY AFTERNOON HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ONGOING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND W OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
LIKELY POPS FURTHER N OVER THIS REGION LATER TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT N WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SURGE N FROM THE
GULF AND FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP CLOSER TO
THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO
SET UP ONCE AGAIN. SOME LATE NIGHT DOWNPOURS A FAIR BET FROM
THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE UP TO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG...PATCHY FOG AND
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PROBABLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A VERY ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST THAT
WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY THE PRECISE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW
POISED TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SC/GA COASTLINE.
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE 00Z/05 ECMWF FOR THE LOW
TRACK WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER DIRECTLY OVER SAVANNAH AT 12Z FRIDAY.
BY AND LARGE...THE SUITE OF MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR TRACK TAKING IT
INTO THE BIG BEND OF FL AND THEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH SOME FAVORING
A MORE INLAND TRACK AND OTHERS FEATURING AN OFFSHORE TRACK. THE NAM
HAS BEEN THROWN OUT ALL TOGETHER...THE GFS IS FASTER AND
OFFSHORE...AND THE MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE ARE CLOSELY CLUSTERED
ALONG OUR COASTLINE. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND FEATURES A SLIGHTLY INLAND TRACK.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED AROUND THE GULF
LOW. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS IN THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINS EARLY THIS
WEEK. THE FORECAST FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM CORE
AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL...WITH A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. WITH THE TWO SCENARIOS
THERE ARE MUCH DIFFERENT POSSIBLE IMPACTS. A TRACK THAT IS OFFSHORE
WOULD CERTAINLY MEAN LESS RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS BEING WEST OF THE
TRACK WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. AN INLAND TRACK WOULD BRING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO MUCH
OF THE REGION AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. ALSO...THERE MAY BE A SMALL CORRIDOR OF AREA JUST EAST OF
THE LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN A VERY TROPICAL LIKE
ENVIRONMENT. SO...FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE INLAND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF AND CORRESPONDINGLY HAS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS AND WINDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95. OBVIOUSLY THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES FOR
MODIFICATIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH JUST AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LEFT BEHIND INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGHING ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL OCCUR AS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH LEAVING A VERY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FOR THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DO DIFFER ON
THE DEGREE OF EAST COAST TROUGHING AND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF. THE FORECAST FEATURES TYPICAL
DIURNAL SCATTER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS FEATURE
A WARMING TREND LOWS 90S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH DAYBREAK...LATEST THINKING AT KSAV KEEPS VFR CONDITIONS THANKS
TO SOME PERSISTENT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KCHS...IFR CONDITIONS
FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 12Z WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF 1 TO 3 MILE VSBYS.
A STALLED BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE RAINS ONCE AGAIN WITH 00Z MODELS SHOWING THE
BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHER QPF OVER INLAND SE GEORGIA TODAY. AT
THIS POINT WE INTRODUCED SHOWER AND TSTM TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS INTO
THE TAFS WITH TIMING ADJUSTMENT EXPECTED WITH TIME AS THE
MESOSCALE CONDITIONS DICTATE.
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DUE TO MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS INTO THURSDAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTIES SURROUND THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEARBY THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT PERIODIC MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE APPEARING MORE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SE TO S BY LATE TONIGHT. SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...LOCALLY HIGHER OFFSHORE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE
THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS
WILL BE 10-15 KT DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
THE IMPROVING SOUTHEAST FETCH. THE FORECAST COMPLEXITY THEN
INCREASES AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS REGARDING THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE FORECAST
IMPACTS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON IT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. THE
CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES A TRACK THAT IS SLIGHTLY INLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES AND
INCREASING SEAS IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE
2 TO 4 INCHES...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING STORMS. THUS...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND
ALONG THE COAST AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE OCCURRENCE AND
EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
306 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
ILLINOIS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...ALTHOUGH THE AIR BELOW
700 MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY PER RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR GALESBURG
AND MOLINE...SO AM NOT BANKING ON THESE SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWEST CWA AT THE MOMENT. A LARGE MCS COVERED MUCH OF KANSAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES NOT IN ANY BIG HURRY TO
LEAVE...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN OUR AREA A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. HAVE LIMITED MOST POPS TO AREAS WEST OF I-55...AND EVEN
THEN IT WOULD BE MORE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HAVE
MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST TOWARD I-57 THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...LINKING UP WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHEARS OUT...FOCUS
WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
BETWEEN SHOULD MOVE INTO ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESSENING
SUPPORT. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN MCS LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
WRF MODEL.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE FRONT STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...AND LIMITED THUNDER
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AS THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS
FURTHER. MAIN EMPHASIS WILL COME WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH THAT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT
HAS SHIFTED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH FROM THE 12Z RUN. THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MORE OF A THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR OUR AREA...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE MIDWEST IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL RING
OF FIRE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE LIKELY TRACK. THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH AND HAS OUR AREA MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED...WHILE
THE ECMWF FAVORS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1115 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE BEING
COVERAGE OF ANY TSRA...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES...SPECIFICALLY SPI...DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE PSBLTY FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AS TEMP
/DEW POINT SPREADS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
00Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIP THAT WAS OUT TO OUR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PROGRESSING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MODELS SUGGEST BAND OF SHOWERS ACRS CENTRAL
THRU EAST CENTRAL IOWA WILL TRACK ENE STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE TWO AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONE TO OUR NORTH AND THE OTHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO SRN IL LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVE. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TOMORROW
WHICH WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING THE VCTS ACRS MAINLY OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES DURING THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-FACTOR WITH MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
00Z ILX SOUNDING EXHIBITING A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM 850
MB TO 500 MB (OR 5000 TO 10000 FT). LEAD BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIR.
SURFACE MAP SHOWING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF LIFT...THE FIRST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW...WHILE
THE SECOND AREA WAS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR A SFC
WAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO THESE SURFACE
WAVES...ONE TO OUR NORTH...AND THE OTHER TO OUR SOUTH. OUR LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STUBBORN DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE. WE HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO OUR NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND BASED ON THE EARLY EVENING TRENDS AND LATEST SHORT
TERM HI-RES FORECASTS...THAT SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
AS A RESULT...OTHER THAN THE USUAL EARLY EVENING ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED THAT
WOULD WARRANT AN EVENING ZONE UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1115 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE BEING
COVERAGE OF ANY TSRA...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES...SPECIFICALLY SPI...DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE PSBLTY FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AS TEMP
/DEW POINT SPREADS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
00Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIP THAT WAS OUT TO OUR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PROGRESSING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MODELS SUGGEST BAND OF SHOWERS ACRS CENTRAL
THRU EAST CENTRAL IOWA WILL TRACK ENE STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE TWO AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONE TO OUR NORTH AND THE OTHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO SRN IL LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVE. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TOMORROW
WHICH WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING THE VCTS ACRS MAINLY OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES DURING THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-FACTOR WITH MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY IN A COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS OUR SOURCE REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY
3 DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST
WEEK AND THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS QUITE LIMITED.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LATEST ILX SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME EXPANDING EAST AS THEY FIGHT THE DRY AIR.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS...ALONG WITH THE SHORT RANGE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DRY AIR BY KEEPING THE
SHOWERS AT BAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-55.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. DUE TO THE
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY MODERATE LIFT
WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCH.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEFORE THE LOWER
LEVELS MOISTEN UP...SO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL
FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO CREATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...SO WILL STICK WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 70-75
RANGE FOR HIGHS.
A BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE AT ODDS LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH DEEPER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS
WHICH RESULTS IN A QUICKER RETURN FLOW...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
EARLIER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE
A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW SATURDAY...AND DONT START TO STRENGTHEN THE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PREFER
THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS RAIN OUT UNTIL SAT NIGHT IN WEST
CENTRAL IL AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY.
THE GFS...HOWEVER TRIES TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BY RAISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MUCH QUICKER ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LIFTING A WARM FRONT TOWARD IL.
THIS LOOKS A BIT TOO QUICK FOR NOW...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
SEVERAL WEAK...BUT MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY 12Z THURS MODELS AGREE THAT POSITIVELY TILTED ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
REMNANTS OF SFC ENERGY WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS ILLINOIS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL DAYS LACK OF MSTR
ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
00Z RUN OF SEVERAL HI RES MODELS NOT PAINTING A GOOD PICTURE WITH
DRY LOW LEVEL SOUNDING...AS E/NE FLOW KEEPS MSTR FROM ADVECTING
IN. NAM/GFS/SREF/LOCAL WRF ALL KEEP THINGS PRETTY DRY TONIGHT.
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE TRIED TO TAKE COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS
OK/KS AND MOVE ENE WITH TIME. CORFIDI VECTORS AND LOCATION OF
DEEPEST MSTR WOULD INDICATE MORE OF A E OR SE TREND FOR CONVECTION
LEADING TO NO LIKELY CONTRIBUTION FROM THE COMPLEX FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. OTHER LIGHTER SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS IOWA INTO PORTIONS
OF WISCONSIN. THESE WERE STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...HAVE
LOWERED POPS BY AT LEAST 10 PERCENT...KEEPING EAST AREAS DRY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT AND TRENDS POPS TO LOW END CHC IN THE WEST.
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPR
50S AS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DECK DOES INCREASE AND THICKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF WEAKENING APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY WIND LOOKS TO INHIBIT EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
PCPN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS BUT TREND HAS
CERTAINLY BEEN SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. TEMPS
REMAIN COOL FOR EARLY JUNE IN LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE ACROSS AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS IN MID
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL TRENDS WITH PCPN IN THE
NEAR TERM COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM ALSO
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT MAIN ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH. DECENT
PV ANOMALY SO MODEL POPS RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO MAKE MANY SHORT WAVES IMPRESSIVE AT THIS RANGE.
SIDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST IN DAY 7 WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING POSSIBLE WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT VERSUS HIGH PRES RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAKENING SYSTEM
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AFTER 00Z THURS. CU MENTIONED IN PREV
DISCUSSION HAVE DISSIPATED WITH MSTR STRUGGLING TO WORK EASTWARD. AS
A RESULT...LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTEND
WITH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
406 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY /...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRECIP TRENDS REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. CURRENT RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS PATCHY MAINLY KINEMATIC FORCING FROM ERN DAKOTAS
UPPER LOW SWD INTO IA. RAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CAPES A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH RESULTING IN SMALL UNFOCUSED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CYCLING UP AND DOWN AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST IN
THE MEAN FLOW. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS SCATTERED PRECIP
EVOLVES LATER IN THE DAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND
FORCING GRADUALLY EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIP REMAINING SE. HOWEVER SEVERAL HIGHER RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING RECENT HRRR...SPC SSEO ENSEMBLES AND 00Z
HIRES WRF RUNS ALL SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND FROM DEVELOPING
NRN KS MCV NEWD INTO IA AHEAD OF 1-3KM TROUGH. FEEL THIS CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED SO HAVE KEPT SCT WORDING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FAR
WEST AS I35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IN SPOTS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW WITH MLCAPES ONLY INCREASING TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WEAK NOW DUE TO ELEVATED NATURE
OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY HIGH...BY
THE TIME THE CONVECTION WOULD POTENTIALLY BECOME ROOTED LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON THOSE HIGHER VALUES SHOULD HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST WITH
OVERALL SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED. ONE
CONCERN WOULD BE BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES HOWEVER.
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SHALLOW MIXING AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED 0-3KM
CAPES. NST PARAMETER DOES RESPOND SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE DISORGANIZED SURFACE WIND FIELD AND
INSUFFICIENT ASSOCIATED VORTICITY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THIS WORDING INTO THE HWO...BUT SOMETHING TO
BE WATCHED DURING HEATING. PROBABLY PLENTY OF DRIFTING SCUD AT A
MINIMUM.
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM SW INTO N
CENTRAL IA AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
IT OVER PARTS OF NW IA. VISIBILITIES HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS OBS...BUT STILL MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG FOR A FEW HOURS
THERE. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY CONFIDENCE TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM MOS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS WERE FOCUSED ON THURSDAY MAX TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES...THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD A
NAM12/SREF AND THE HIRES-ARW AND NMM WRF THROUGH
THURSDAY...NAM/SREF FOR FRIDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND TAKES
THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY MOISTURE LOOKS TO SET UP
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT DAY OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK VORT MAX WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING
AND MOISTURE CUTS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GFS DEPICTING STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
ENTERING WESTERN IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES NOT
IMPRESSIVE RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROUGH MOVE
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING CENTRAL IOWA WITH WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DECENT MIXING BY THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MAY
HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP EVEN FURTHER IF TREND CONTINUES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE. 850MB TEMPS BACK TO +16C BY MONDAY AND
EVEN WARMER BY TUESDAY AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
MOISTURE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTING PRIMARILY
KALO...KDSM AND KOTM. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AND THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING BRIEF SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER DAKOTAS
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NW KS. COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...WITH STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH
MLCAPE INCREASE ALONG FRONT RANGE AND UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE ALONG
PALMER ASSOCIATED WITH NE FLOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF OUR CWA LATER. CAPE/SHEER
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN.
ULTIMATELY WE MAY NOT ACTUALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 03Z WHEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AND DEEP MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
CWA...HOWEVER H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WED. NAM IS
SHOWING SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA/PV HEIGHT ANOMALIES TRACKING OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WED WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP DEPENDING ON THEIR
LOCATIONS. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING STILL SEEMS TO BE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF CWA...AND WHILE PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY I AM UNSURE ABOUT
AMOUNTS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z SO I ONLY LEFT
ISO THUNDER MENTION AFTER THAT POINT. LOCATION OF EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AND LOCATION OF ENHANCE AREA OF RAIN BANDS/SHOWER CLUSTERS
WILL DETERMINE BEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND THESE WILL BE MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED. AN ESTIMATE OF 0.10 TO 0.30" TOTAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE
CWA SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THIS EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH CAA OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...AND LINGERING PRECIP/THICK CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY NOT SEE HIGHS REACH 60F IF
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE VERIFIES AND PRECIP LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I LOWERED TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS STILL
ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NAM/MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT WED
JUN 5 2013
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PATTERN WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR SATURDAY WITH STRONGER 500 MB JET STAYING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER MANITOBA WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIDGE LOOKS TO STAY IN
PLACE FOR TUESDAY...BUT A NEW HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL TROUGH
PATTERN BEGINS TO ENTER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE LARGE TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO BE SLOWER MOVING...HOWEVER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS LOOK TO DEVELOP FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE RIDGE PATTERN. GFS
BRINGS SOME VORT MAXES THROUGH THE OUR IMMEDIATE REGION FOR
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET PRESENT FOR
SATURDAY OF AROUND 30 KNOTS...BUT STRONGEST JET OF THE PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE A NOCTURNAL JET OVERNIGHT MONDAY OF AROUND 50 KNOTS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
EAST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PASSING DRYLINE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. CAPE VALUES
ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG FOR THE GOODLAND AREA...BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1500 J/KG SHOULD BE PRESENT TO THE EAST AROUND THE
HILL CITY AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THE
ROCKIES...WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER STAYING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GOOD CAPE,
LIFTED INDICES, AND K INDICES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THETA E VALUES OF 350 K AND DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S.
SURFACE DRYLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SEVERE INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BUT THE EASTERN
AREAS COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE...AND HIGH
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AT KGLD...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY
WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL BE
GRADUALLY LOWERING AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS.
AT KMCK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THINK KMCK WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. LOWER CIGS
WILL TRY TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BUT NOT SURE THAT
WILL MATERIALIZE. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS CENTERED
AROUND SUNRISE...IMPROVING BY MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
242 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS
SOUTH TO HUTCHINSON APPEARS TO BE ATTEMPTING TO FORWARD PROPAGATE AS
OF 230 AM. HAVE SEEN DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD POOL
INTERFACE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH SOME EASTWARD ACCELERATION. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE SETUP
IS NOT IDEAL FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION...AND THE RAGGED REFLECTIVITY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTIVE EVIDENCE. HOWEVER...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX WEST OF
LINCOLN MAY BE IMPROVING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FORWARD PROPAGATION ON
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCV...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING DICKINSON...
MORRIS AND GEARY COUNTIES...AND WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE
EAST. THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT
IF A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM IS REALIZED...COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE
A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 60 MPH RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN
EXPECTED GIVEN CORFIDI VECTORS AT 40 KTS COUPLING WITH ANY LEADING
EDGE DOWNDRAFTS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER STORM STRUCTURE DEVELOP
BEFORE GETTING TOO EXCITED ABOUT MORE LONG LIVED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN SUCH A LOW INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING EASTERN KS AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW FROM ID INTO WY. AT THE SURFACE...OBS SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER AM NOT THAT OPTIMISTIC STORMS
WILL FORM. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG OVER CENTRAL KS WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AS NOTED IN THE MID
LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD OF 5 TO 10 KTS DOES NOT SUGGEST CONVERGENCE WITHIN
THE TROUGH AXIS IS VERY STRONG AND THE CU FIELD ON VISIBLE HAS NOT
SHOWN MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. IF SOMETHING WERE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
MAYBE NEAR MINNEAPOLIS. IF STORMS ARE UNABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING AND A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF CONVECTION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS AND MID RANGE MODELS
IS TO TRACK THE MCS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A SLOWER
AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE MCS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE
HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE NEB STATE
LINE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WITH PRECIP EVENTUALLY COMING TO
AN END THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE END OF
PRECIP IS LOW UNTIL THE ACTUALLY MCS FORMS AND WE GET A BETTER IDEA
OF WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH. BECAUSE OF THIS
HAVE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
WOLTERS
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY WANE WITH FRONT SINKING
SOUTH AND UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING IN. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIODS AGAIN LOOKING DRY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH MAINLY NORTHEAST LOCATIONS FOR POSSIBLE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
COOL MID LEVELS...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF NUISANCE-AT-MOST PRECIP. CLOUD COVER COULD
BE RATHER PREVALENT DESPITE DEEP BUT WEAK DOWNGLIDE AND WILL GO WITH
HIGHS A BIT BELOW MOS. MORE SUN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY THOUGH WEAKER
MIXING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH BEYOND THURSDAYS
EXPECTATIONS.
THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS TRENDING FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH MAIN
IMPACTS LIKELY COMING IN THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PERIODS.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY EARLY SUNDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES WERE REDUCED HERE.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THEIR RANGE...FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
SHARPEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT FOR WARM FRONT/WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIODS. THIS
IS UNDER A DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...BUT IT AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK/COOL. BY TUESDAY...AGAIN BARRING ANY
PERSISTENT DAYTIME CONVECTION...HIGHS SHOULD RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
SPREADING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY THE 12Z HOUR AND HAVE INCLUDED
THAT FOR SEVERAL HOURS /GENERALLY THROUGH 18Z / AT SITES. THINKING
AT THIS TIME IS THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP CIGS AT OR ABOVE MVFR AND BRING RAIN TO AN
END.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
238 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY EAST
EXHIBITING SOME BOWING/MARGINAL SEVERE WIND STRUCTURE AS IT
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION AND
SOME EVENTUAL TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE AREA AS IT MOVES/PROPAGATES EAST-SOUTHEAST THRU MID-MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL
RETAIN MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF DIMINISHING
POPS AND ENDING OF PRECIP CHANCES LOOKS ON TRACK LATE TONIGHT.
WHILE THE NATURE OF CONVECTION LENDS TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY AS THIS
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WILL
RETAIN MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING.
A COUPLE OF DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD DAYS BY JUNE STANDARDS IS
IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROF PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RENEWED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TRENDS IS LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
PROGGED OVER THE FRONT.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR WAS ACCURATE IN ITS PERSISTENT DEPICTION
OF A MCS MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH ITS HOURLY RUNS. USED THE LATE AFTERNOON RUNS TO HELP
FORECAST TIMING FOR THE MCS INTO THE IMPACTED TERMINALS AT THE 00Z
TAFS...AND LITTLE CHANGES WITH THAT TIMING FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
MAIN CHANGE WAS MOVING TEMPO GROUPS TO PREVAILING GROUPS. STILL
THINK OUTSIDE OF A HEAVY DOWNPOUR TO DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS...UPPER
END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE STORMS. THIS
MCS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS...IT HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING 50-60 MPH WINDS. HAVE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY
MORNING TO LATE MORNING. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT AFTER THIS AIRMASS
IS MODIFIED TONIGHT IS LOW.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 74 57 76 56 / 80 40 10 0
HUTCHINSON 73 55 76 54 / 70 40 10 0
NEWTON 72 56 75 55 / 80 40 10 0
ELDORADO 73 56 75 54 / 90 40 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 76 58 77 56 / 90 50 10 0
RUSSELL 70 52 76 54 / 50 30 10 0
GREAT BEND 70 53 76 54 / 50 30 10 0
SALINA 73 54 76 54 / 70 30 10 0
MCPHERSON 72 55 76 54 / 70 30 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 76 60 77 56 / 90 50 10 0
CHANUTE 75 58 76 55 / 90 40 10 0
IOLA 74 58 75 55 / 90 40 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 76 59 76 55 / 90 50 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1124 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING BRIEF SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER DAKOTAS
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NW KS. COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...WITH STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH
MLCAPE INCREASE ALONG FRONT RANGE AND UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE ALONG
PALMER ASSOCIATED WITH NE FLOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF OUR CWA LATER. CAPE/SHEER
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN.
ULTIMATELY WE MAY NOT ACTUALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 03Z WHEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AND DEEP MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
CWA...HOWEVER H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WED. NAM IS
SHOWING SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA/PV HEIGHT ANOMALIES TRACKING OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WED WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP DEPENDING ON THEIR
LOCATIONS. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING STILL SEEMS TO BE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF CWA...AND WHILE PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY I AM UNSURE ABOUT
AMOUNTS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z SO I ONLY LEFT
ISO THUNDER MENTION AFTER THAT POINT. LOCATION OF EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AND LOCATION OF ENHANCE AREA OF RAIN BANDS/SHOWER CLUSTERS
WILL DETERMINE BEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND THESE WILL BE MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED. AN ESTIMATE OF 0.10 TO 0.30" TOTAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE
CWA SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THIS EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH CAA OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...AND LINGERING PRECIP/THICK CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY NOT SEE HIGHS REACH 60F IF
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE VERIFIES AND PRECIP LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I LOWERED TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS STILL
ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NAM/MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT
STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. FLOW IN GENERAL IS VERY COMPLICATED AND
LITTERED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW.
AT MID LEVELS THE ECMWF WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
NAM/SREF/GFS. MODELS LOOK TO INITIALLY BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. THE UKMET AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DURING THE EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE EAST. DO EXPECT RAINFALL
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THIS EVENT ENDS. THE WINDS GO
LIGHT AND CLEARING DOES OCCUR. NOT A DEFINITE SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS BUT DO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
WEAK JET LIFT LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL LIFT IS AROUND. REMOTE CHANCE
THAT SOMETHING COULD FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN
COLORADO. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK. SO WILL KEEP IT
DRY.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SOME STRONGER UPPER JET LIFT COMES IN DURING
THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AIR MASS DRIES
AS HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE JET...WHICH MAY
ONLY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID
LEVEL LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE IS STILL NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. GUIDANCE STAYS
COOL AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WENT IN THAT DIRECTION.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO LOOKS TO BE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OUT
WEST. BEST LIFT LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THIS PERIOD. SO PULLED POPS
FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY AND CONFINED THEM TO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. WITH LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST AS SURFACE RIDGE PULLS
AWAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST. NOT THE BEST
DIRECTION FOR A WARMUP. SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SO THE CHANCE POPS THE CRH INIT POPS I WAS GIVEN LOOK
REASONABLE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF EVENTUALLY THEY WENT
HIGHER. AFTER THAT THE FORECAST GETS MORE UNCERTAIN. THROUGH
MONDAY THE MODELS SHOW THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES RISING TO
VARYING DEGREES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH IN A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ALSO DURING THIS TIME THE MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER...CAPPED AND DRIER
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH COOLER AND WETTER. ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST LEAVING THE AREA POSSIBLY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. SO MODEL OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPECT IN THE
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD AND TO ME LOOKS PROBLEMATIC TO TRY MAKE
ANY SENSE OR MAKE BIG CHANGES TO IT. SO CHOSE TO KEEP THE OVERALL POP
FIELD IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME WITH A CHANCE THAT EITHER EXTREME
COULD BECOME REALITY. ALSO KEPT REMAINING INHERITED INIT GRIDS
UNCHANGED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AT KGLD...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY
WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL BE
GRADUALLY LOWERING AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS.
AT KMCK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THINK KMCK WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. LOWER CIGS
WILL TRY TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BUT NOT SURE THAT
WILL MATERIALIZE. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS CENTERED
AROUND SUNRISE...IMPROVING BY MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1153 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH MCS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. SEVERE WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THE MCS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ALL NIGHT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS MCS AND EXPECT THE MAIN LINE TO APPROACH BETWEEN
06-07Z...BUT IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY EARLIER IF THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION SPEEDS UP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT THE SEVERE THREAT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN THREATS CONTINUE
TO BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
BILLINGS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A REMNANT MCV OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHILE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR A STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE ACTIVITY ALONG A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROPAGATE ESE
TOWARD THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS IN ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
AOA 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND WITH RECENT RAIN/WET SOILS AND SLOW
STORM PROPAGATION ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS ALONG THE NEOSHO BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR REMAINS LOW. LIMITED INSOLATION/LOW
LEVEL CAA IN THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN
SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...LOWS MAY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND TRENDED VALUES DOWN SLIGHTLY.
MCGUIRE
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL
EXIT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON SATURDAY...A SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR.
NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND REMAIN ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BOTH
NIGHTS. HAVE INDICATED SUCH WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE FORECAST.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR WAS ACCURATE IN ITS PERSISTENT DEPICTION
OF A MCS MOVING ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH ITS HOURLY RUNS. USED THE LATE AFTERNOON RUNS TO HELP
FORECAST TIMING FOR THE MCS INTO THE IMPACTED TERMINALS AT THE 00Z
TAFS...AND LITTLE CHANGES WITH THAT TIMING FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
MAIN CHANGE WAS MOVING TEMPO GROUPS TO PREVAILING GROUPS. STILL
THINK OUTSIDE OF A HEAVY DOWNPOUR TO DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS...UPPER
END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE STORMS. THIS
MCS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS...IT HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING 50-60 MPH WINDS. HAVE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY
MORNING TO LATE MORNING. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT AFTER THIS AIRMASS
IS MODIFIED TONIGHT IS LOW.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 65 73 57 76 / 90 70 30 10
HUTCHINSON 62 71 54 76 / 100 70 30 10
NEWTON 62 70 55 75 / 100 70 30 10
ELDORADO 63 72 55 75 / 70 70 30 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 75 58 76 / 70 70 40 10
RUSSELL 61 71 51 76 / 100 50 20 10
GREAT BEND 61 70 51 76 / 100 50 20 10
SALINA 62 72 54 76 / 100 60 20 10
MCPHERSON 62 71 54 76 / 100 60 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 65 77 62 76 / 60 70 40 10
CHANUTE 64 75 59 75 / 60 70 30 10
IOLA 64 74 58 74 / 60 70 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 65 76 61 75 / 60 70 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING EASTERN KS AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW FROM ID INTO WY. AT THE SURFACE...OBS SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER AM NOT THAT OPTIMISTIC STORMS
WILL FORM. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG OVER CENTRAL KS WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AS NOTED IN THE MID
LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD OF 5 TO 10 KTS DOES NOT SUGGEST CONVERGENCE WITHIN
THE TROUGH AXIS IS VERY STRONG AND THE CU FIELD ON VISIBLE HAS NOT
SHOWN MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. IF SOMETHING WERE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
MAYBE NEAR MINNEAPOLIS. IF STORMS ARE UNABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING AND A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF CONVECTION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS AND MID RANGE MODELS
IS TO TRACK THE MCS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A SLOWER
AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE MCS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE
HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE NEB STATE
LINE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WITH PRECIP EVENTUALLY COMING TO
AN END THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE END OF
PRECIP IS LOW UNTIL THE ACTUALLY MCS FORMS AND WE GET A BETTER IDEA
OF WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH. BECAUSE OF THIS
HAVE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
WOLTERS
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY WANE WITH FRONT SINKING
SOUTH AND UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING IN. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIODS AGAIN LOOKING DRY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH MAINLY NORTHEAST LOCATIONS FOR POSSIBLE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
COOL MID LEVELS...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF NUISANCE-AT-MOST PRECIP. CLOUD COVER COULD
BE RATHER PREVALENT DESPITE DEEP BUT WEAK DOWNGLIDE AND WILL GO WITH
HIGHS A BIT BELOW MOS. MORE SUN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY THOUGH WEAKER
MIXING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH BEYOND THURSDAYS
EXPECTATIONS.
THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS TRENDING FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH MAIN
IMPACTS LIKELY COMING IN THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PERIODS.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY EARLY SUNDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES WERE REDUCED HERE.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THEIR RANGE...FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
SHARPEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT FOR WARM FRONT/WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIODS. THIS
IS UNDER A DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...BUT IT AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK/COOL. BY TUESDAY...AGAIN BARRING ANY
PERSISTENT DAYTIME CONVECTION...HIGHS SHOULD RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
SPREADING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY THE 12Z HOUR AND HAVE INCLUDED
THAT FOR SEVERAL HOURS /GENERALLY THROUGH 18Z / AT SITES. THINKING
AT THIS TIME IS THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP CIGS AT OR ABOVE MVFR AND BRING RAIN TO AN
END.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW STARTING TO DEPART TO OUR EAST AND HAS KEPT
OUR WEATHER VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL DEPART AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AFTER
DAYBREAK. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...MODELS SEEM TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY. THIS MAY KEEP POTENTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE MORE LIMITED.
PRESENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS
WAVE. WITH INSTABILITY IN QUESTION TODAY...KEPT POPS AT 40 OR BELOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STORMS
MAY NOT FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING AS IT TAKES MOST OF THE DAY FOR SFC MOISTURE TO RECOVER. BASE
ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY LOOKING
MORE SPORADIC TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY INSTABILITY
WHICH DEVELOPS.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CERTAINLY LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN
24 HOURS AGO...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN INSTABILITY AND
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF DECENT RAINFALL
LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS THU NITE WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST. DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A
TROPICAL LOW INTO GA THAT SHOWS UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
GFS ONLY HINTS AT A MINOR VORTICITY DISTURBANCE IN THIS AREA. IN ANY
CASE THE LONG WAVE TROF IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES PASS THRU BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY MON NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
TROF TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOLDS MORE RAIN INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THAN THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONGER TROPICAL LOW OVER NRN FLA WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER LOW AND PLACES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU NIGHT.
THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY END SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND THE TROPICAL LOW IS SWEPT OFF THE NEW ENG COAST.
THE GOOD WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST TOO LONG AS THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
ERN KY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THRU SRN CANADA AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE LOWER TENN VALLEY. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER BIT OF DRY WEATHER FOR WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM A COOL MID
70S ON FRI TO A WARM LOWER 80S FOR SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAS TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. VALLEY FOG WITH IFR WILL
AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT WILL NOT IMPACT TAF SITES. AFTER 15Z...AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z...SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AND HANDLED THIS
WITH VCTS AT THIS POINT. WHERE THIS OCCURRED VIS AND OR CIGS MAY FALL
TO AS LOW AS IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM
HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. ALOFT...FLOW IS WESTERLY
WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES
HAD BEEN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT AN AREA OF BKN/OVC CIGS AROUND 5 K FT
HAS PUSHED INTO NW CORNER OF THE CWA. LATEST RUC13 IS REALLY THE
ONLY MODEL DOING A GOOD JOB W/ THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SO WILL FOLLOW
CLOSE TO THIS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HRS TODAY..PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO THE N/W OF RICHMOND AND MOSTLY CLEAR S/E. FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...SKIES AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE EARLIER CLOUDS MIX OUT SOMEWHAT.
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE GENERATING PRECIP/QPF ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT W/ ESE FLOW DO NOT EXPECT
THIS TO MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE AKQ CWA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUE...MODEST WARMING ALOFT OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
MORE CLOUDS THAN ON TUE. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACRS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE MID-UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. RH REMAINS
COMFORTABLE W/ DEW PTS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. FOR TONIGHT...THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY GETS SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES
EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS AS MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE (ESP W OF I-95) WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY. WARMER W/ LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT W/ THIS PERIOD...NAM IS NEARLY 500
MILES WEST AND SLOWER WITH ITS SOLUTION THAN THE FASTER GFS.
LATEST 00Z/05 ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT HAS BEEN
MOST CONSISTENT AND GENLY HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THU...BUT BULK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE STILL STAYS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE 2
LOWS PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE FROM THE GULF AND THE OTHER FROM THE
OH VALLEY HAVE YET TO PHASE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS/40-50% OVER
THE FAR WEST AND IN INTERIOR NE NC...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER
ABOUT A 30% POP BY AFTN. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER SE FLOW SO
HAVE DROPPED CHC FOR TSTMS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE DESPITE THE
INCREASE IN POPS. HIGHS GENLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AGAIN.
BY THU NIGHT....THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
PHASE W/ THE GULF SYSTEM...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING
PULLED UP INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT LIKELY POPS/60% THU NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AS
DEW PTS CLIMB TO 65-70...AND THIS IS ABOUT WHAT MIN TEMPS WILL BE.
LOOKING RATHER WET..PARTICULARLY ON FRI...AS THE LO PRES AREAS
APPROACH AND PUSH INTO SE VA BY 00Z/SAT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND CHC OF TSTMS. PWATS ARE FCST TO CLIMB
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ON FRI...THUS HEAVY DOWNPOURS/RAINS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OVR THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRI IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR-MID
80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING PCPN CHCS
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST, AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING UPR TROUGH, WHICH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY FRI-SAT. USED A SFC LOW TRACK BASED OFF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE (04/00Z) AND THE 12Z ECMWF, WHICH APPEARED TO BE A MIDDLE
GROUND SOLUTION BETWEEN THE PROGRESSIVE GFS (WHICH PUSHES MAJORITY
OF PCPN OFFSHORE) AND THE SLOWER OPERATIONAL NAM. USING THIS BLEND,
THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N-NE, ASCENDING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM A POSITION ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AT 00Z(8PM)/SAT...TO A
POSITION JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY AFTN. AFTER THE
AFOREMENTIONED WET DAY ON FRIDAY, EXPECT PCPN TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN
FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH RETAINED LIKELY
POP OVER THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH SAT MORNING.
RAIN CHCS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AS A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE FROM THE CAROLINAS. THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE INTERIM, AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION EXPECT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SCT AFTN/ERY EVENING SHRAS/TSTMS
EACH DAY FROM SAT-MON. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS BY TUESDAY, AS A
WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL IS VERY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR
MAXIMA, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PUSH ABOVE CLIMO READINGS DURING THE
PERIOD. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE M-U80S, ERY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S
TO NR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LGT/CALM THRU THE ERLY MORNG HRS. WINDS BCM MAINLY FROM THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND A FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF PCPN...DEVELOPING
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MAINLY MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF IFR
IN HEAVIER PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...
LGT AND VRB WNDS OVER AREA WTRS THIS MORNG WITH SFC HI PRES IN THE
VICINITY. THE HI CENTERS NE OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...LEADING TO 5-10
KT ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS
OVER CSTL WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH THE HI
SLIDING EWRD.
WNDS BCM SERLY ON THU AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LO PRES OVER THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ATTM...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LT THU-FRI BEFORE PUSHING TOWARDS THE NJ COAST SAT MORNG. AS
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THAT SCA
CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY FRI...CONTINUING INTO SAT. WNDS WILL
RAMP BACK DOWN QUICKLY AS THE LO ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA SAT MORNG...WITH WNDS VEERING BACK AROUND TO THE S-SW BEHIND
THE SYSTEM UNTIL THE NEXT (WEAK) COOL FRONT APPROACHES BY TUE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1222 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY FOR NOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE EARLIER
RAIN SHOWERS...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DIMINISHED UPPER
LEVEL FORCING HAS CAUSED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH.
UPSTREAM HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN FAR EASTERN IOWA. THIS HAS PRODUCED ANOTHER SWATH OF
RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WERE CROSSING SRN WISCONSIN AND MAINLY CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE WERE MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST...AND WILL LIKELY
HOLD TOGETHER NEARER THE WAVE...BUT THE LEADING EDGE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO ERODE TO SOME DEGREE WITHIN WEAK SUBSIDENCE/SHALLOW
RIDGING OVER US. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING THIS. NO FORM OF
MODEL GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF THE LATEST RUC IS DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
DEPICTING THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTATIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
TODAY. NEXT 12HRS OR SO WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...COUPLED WITH THE RUC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED AS EXPECTED
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MODEST BUT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORT WAVE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST NAM IS POINTING TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. A LOOK AT
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS CONFIRMS THIS IDEA...SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THRU
WISCONSIN TOWARD AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32. THUS HAVE
EXTENDING CHANCE POPS WITHIN THIS AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY CLOUDY AND CALM BALANCE TO THE
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S AS OPPOSED TO THE
30S AND AREAS OF FROST WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF M-32 THIS EVENING AS A MODEST BUT MOISTURE-STARVED WAVE RIDES
EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL LWR MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL EXIT OUR CWA
BY LATE EVENING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOCUSING
BACK TO OUR WEST OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. NO POP/WX ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW QUICKLY OUR CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP
DISSIPATES AS WE HEAD THRU THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CLOUDS HAVE BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF
WESTERN LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALL DECENT FORCING WELL
UPSTAIRS...WITH A COMPLETE DEARTH OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOW
LEVELS. SOME SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY WHERE "DEEPER MOISTURE"
AND LEADING EDGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ARE MAXIMIZED. ELSEWHERE...DRY
LOW LEVELS HAVE WON OUT...WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING WELL UP INTO
THE 60S. BETTER RAINS FURTHER WEST INTO WISCONSIN WHERE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE BETTER JUXTAPOSED...WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOWING A SLOW EAST PROGRESSION OF SUCH. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON
THE ABOVE...SPECIFICALLY ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
LEAD WAVE ROTATES RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOCUSING BACK WEST WITH TIME AHEAD OF
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY. OVERHEAD MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS THETA-E RIDGING NOSES INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...FORCING NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH BETTER LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL ADVECTION REMAINING UPSTREAM.
DEVELOPMENT OF DRY LIGHT EAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS
DRY...SUGGESTING A STRUGGLE FOR ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE.
KINDA ENVISION SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING A TOUCH
FURTHER EAST THIS EVENING WITH LEAD WAVE...WITH INCREASINGLY DRY
LOW LEVELS AND LOSS OF DYNAMICS FOCUSING RAINS BACK WEST WITH TIME.
INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY WELL TRENDED THIS DIRECTION...AND HAVE
MADE JUST SOME COSMETIC CHANGES. ABOVE CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAKING THE PRECIP FORECAST A LOW CONFIDENCE ENDEAVOR.
FORCING TRIES TO RATCHET UP SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEED GOING NOWHERE FAST...HOWEVER...
AND BETTER THETA-E GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLIP SOUTH WITH TIME. DESPITE
GUIDANCE PERSISTENCE OF RATHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINS...JUST
RELUCTANT TO HEAD THAT DIRECTION GIVEN ABOVE. DRY AIR FEED DEEPEST
AS ONE GOES NORTH...LIKELY KEEPING EASTERN UPPER PRETTY MUCH DRY
THROUGH THE DURATION. FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES DEFINITELY PLAUSIBLE...BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT TO REV POPS
UP JUST YET. EITHER WAY...RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...LIKELY WELL
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS REMAIN A TOUCH OF THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMO...WITH READING GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
RECENT TRENDS: TEMPERATURES: ROLLER COASTER LAST 7 DAYS ROUGHLY
AVERAGED OUT NEAR NORMAL...A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITATION/HYDROLOGY: FAIRLY WET PERIOD OVER LAST WEEK...
PARTICULARLY ALONG US-10 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIPITATION WAS GREATER
THAN 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MONTH OF MAY WAS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SAVE FOR A FEW DRIER POCKETS...ABOUT
50-100 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.. 30 DAY
STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL
MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (TOP 1 METER)...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAGINAW
RIVER BASIN. NORTHERN MICHIGAN RIVERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING FAIRLY
STEADY OVER PAST 5 DAYS AS THINGS HAVE DRIED OUT A BIT WITH CURRENT
COOL SPELL...STREAMFLOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. GREAT LAKES: WATER
TEMPERATURES 3-5C LAKE SUPERIOR (4-5C WHITEFISH BAY)...4-6C OFFSHORE
LAKE MICHIGAN (7-9C NEARSHORE)...4-6C NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WARMER
NEARSHORE SOUTH OF THUNDER BAY INTO SAGINAW BAY WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES 15-20C.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: FOUR WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN
PLACE...SMALL SCALE REX BLOCKING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA
FLANKED BY TROUGHING OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. ENERGY MAKING UP SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPSTREAM
REX BLOCK WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MEAN TROUGHING REMAINING INTO NEXT
WEEK WHILE RIDGING EXPANDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PLAINS. NOT A WARM LOOKING PATTERN FOR THE GREAT LAKES BY ANY MEANS
FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST.
A COUPLE PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AS PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL WAVE
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND WEAKER WAVE ON
FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING
THE FIRST COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE
MID LEVELS AND PRETTY SPOTTY...SO PLAN TO BE PRETTY GENERIC WITH THE
CHANCE POP DISTRIBUTION AND NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT THAT MUCH
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT EAST OF I-75. BEST RAIN CHANCE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAY END UP BEING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA (ALONG/NORTH
OF THE VORTICITY CENTER TRACK)...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD
DECK ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. OVERALL DRYING TREND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS...AND FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY
DECENT DAY AS MAIN ACTIVITY HEADS TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH
NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BETWEEN DEVELOPING EAST COAST LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH A BIT WARMER FRIDAY WITH MORE
SUN/DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): WEEKEND STARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HANGING ON ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WHILE LOW
PRESSURE RIDES UP THE EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL GFS
TRENDING MUCH STRONGER/QUICKER WITH UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT (COMES THROUGH LATER SUNDAY)...LATE ARRIVING 04/12Z ECMWF DIGS
STRONGER ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES DEEPER MOISTURE INTO
MICHIGAN SUNDAY. WOULD LIKE TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THIS...BUT
EITHER WAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
LOWER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE STARTING THE NEW
TUESDAY FORECAST OUT DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DESPITE A COUPLE OF EXPECTED PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE THE CULPRIT...TRACKING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
LOOKS LIKE THE RATHER QUIET MARINE WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH
VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT GIVING WAY TO LIGHT EAST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY.
EAST FLOW CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
CURRENT PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUB SCA WINDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA. AREA OF TSRA HAS
SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
MID CLOUDS...HOWEVER SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 10Z
AT KOMA AND KLNK. A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS MAY TRY TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEB...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THESE. NORTH WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS AND GENERALLY 8 TO 15KTS FOR
WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING STILL HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
H85 DEWPOINT OF 12DEG C. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW PUSH OF THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z...
STRETCHING FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO JUST WEST OF HEBRON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO POP UP JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEST OF OMAHA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST WITH HRRR PLACING EMPHASIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT EAST AND SOUTH OF
OMAHA. FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY REACHING
NORTHERN TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED
BY MODELS FOR LIMITED RAIN CHANCE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS STILL SHOW A COLD FRONT COMING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARMING TEMPERATURES
INDICATED AFTER THAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1154 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
AREA OF TSRA HAS SLIP SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MID CLOUDS. A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS
MAY HOLD TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEB
...SO WILL NEED TO MONTIOR THESE. NORTH WINDS MOSTLY 10KTS OR LESS
AND GENERALLY 8 TO 15KTS FOR WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING STILL HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
H85 DEWPOINT OF 12DEG C. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW PUSH OF THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z...
STRETCHING FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO JUST WEST OF HEBRON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO POP UP JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEST OF OMAHA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST WITH HRRR PLACING EMPHASIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT EAST AND SOUTH OF
OMAHA. FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY REACHING
NORTHERN TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED
BY MODELS FOR LIMITED RAIN CHANCE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS STILL SHOW A COLD FRONT COMING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARMING TEMPERATURES
INDICATED AFTER THAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR BOUNDARY/FRONT NEAR A TCC TO EAGLE NEST LINE AND A FEW
SHRA AND TSRA ARE STILL FAIRLY LIKELY TO DEVELOP MAINLY BEHIND IT
OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS AND COLFAX COUNTY VCNTY AFTER 06Z...A VERY
FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF HAIL. BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR ROUGHLY THE NE THIRD
TO HALF OF NM BY WED AFTN TO AS LATE AS 00Z THU...HAVING
DECELLERATED SOMEWHAT EARLIER IN THE DAY. AREAS MVFR CIGS A
PRETTY GOOD POSSIBILITY AFTER 09Z NE OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EAGLE
NEST TO TCC. AFT 18Z OR 19Z WED STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA POTENTIAL
IN AREAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF SANGRE DE CRISTOS SE INTO EAST
CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SE PLAINS. THESE WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR
IF NOT IFR CIGS AND MT OBSCURATIONS. ALSO CAN EXPECT STRONG E TO
SE CANYON WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AND AFTER THE 00Z TO 02Z
PERIOD AFFECTING MAINLY SAF AND ABQ. 43
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1104 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE NE PLAINS WHERE SEVERAL MOIST
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE OVER THE AREA. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RUC AND HRRR SHOW THIS AREA FAVORED FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST HAVE REMOVED MENTION. ALSO MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD
WHEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IMPACTS THE STATE.
GUYER
.PREV DISCUSSION...655 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
PLACED SMOKE BACK INTO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT IN AREAS OUTLINED BY
ONGOING INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION EFFORTS. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL
BE IN THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF FIRES AND AROUND LOS ALAMOS...SANTA
FE...ESPANOLA...AND LAS VEGAS. BANNERS HAVE BEEN PLACED ON OUR
PUBLIC PAGE TO LINK FOR THE SMOKE OUTLOOK. THE NDFD AIR QUALITY
PAGE AT AIRQUALITY.WEATHER.GOV/SECTORS/SOUTHROCKIES.PHP ALSO
PROVIDES SOME INFO ON SURFACE SMOKE AND COLUMN INTEGRATED VALUES.
GUYER
.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINING WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR CLASSIC
PYROCUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THOMPSON RIDGE FIRE. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE NOW INCREASING OVER NRN NM AND SRN CO...ON THE WINGS OF A
SUBTLE 50KT SW-NE SPEED MAX/JET STREAK. AND WITH THE VERY WARM TO HOT
LOW LEVELS...STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED DRY STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NM...PRODUCING ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL. BACKDOOR FRONT OVER FAR NE NM LOSING OUT TO THE SWLY
FLOW TO THE WEST...FOR NOW. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WHERE THE WEAK WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY TO CREATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THERE ALONG WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE FROM THE RATON MESA
EAST INTO NORTHERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH NIGHT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATING THAT AN MCC WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH RAIN COOLED AIR STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE HIGH
FURTHER. THIS WILL ACT TO SEND THE BACKDOOR FRONT ROARING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. QUITE THE LINE OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY SPAWNING DRY STORMS
ALONG THE WEST MESA AND POINTS WEST TO MOUNTAIN TAYLOR OR SO AS
THE AIRMASS PUSHES WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAISED POPS FOR THE VALLEY...MAINLY
FROM THE WEST MESA OF THE ABQ METRO WESTWARD TO THE WEST- CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS...ALBEIT MOST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TO HWY 60 EAST OF SANTA
ROSA EAST TO THE TX LINE. NAM12 PROGGING 2000-2500J/KG MU CAPE
VALUES ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF AROUND 30KTS.
MOST ACTIVE DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN THE HIGHEST
PWATS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAKING FOR MAINLY WET
STORMS. NW PLATEAU EXPECTED TO HAVE LIMITING MOISTURE INCREASE...MAKING
STORMS THERE MAINLY OF THE DRY VARIETY. STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ~2000J/KG OF CAPE
AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30KTS RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
MOST ACTIVE AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT FRIDAY BUT STILL PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND ERN PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DRIER AND WARMER/HOTTER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOTTEST DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER AND 700MB TEMPS CLIMB
TO NEAR 20C. 33
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO EARTH SHATTERING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RGV WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUT IN A GAP WIND AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE RGV. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS A TAD OVERALL AND TO PUSH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER WEST. WHERE THE DRY/WET BOUNDARIES END
UP WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER MAINLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MTS. OBSERVED DEWPTS
SUCH THAT LITTLE TO NO RAIN WOULD FALL WITH ANY SHOWERS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLD LIGHTNING
STRIKES BUT NOT EXPECTING AN OUTBREAK.
NAM12/RUC INDICATE A NORTHEAST SFC GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER NE NM
TONIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY WASHING OUT AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE
STRONGER SURGE DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED
TO STRETCH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SWD TO THE CLINES CORNERS AREA
THROUGH PORTALES...WHERE WETTER CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED.
RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT TO BE POOR WEST AND CENTRAL WHILE GOOD OR EVEN
EXCELLENT IN THE NORTHEAST. MIXING HTS FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE...LEADING TO SOME FAIR
TO GOOD VENTILATION VALUES FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST WHILE EXCELLENT
VALUES ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND WEST WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 7 TO 15 PERCENT WHILE 30S OR GREATER WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT.
CHANCE FOR A MIX OF WET/DRY STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WETTER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
VENT RATES IN THE EAST THURSDAY RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THAT PART OF THE STATE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES WILL STRETCH FROM THE WEST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WWD.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING
FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK...BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. SATURDAY LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
THIRD TO HALF...UNLESS A SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO FIND IT/S WAY INTO
THE STATE. ANOTHER...BUT WEAK...WIND SHIFT IN THE EAST FOR SUNDAY
PROGGED. GFS GENERATES NO QPF WITH THIS...HOWEVER THERE IS A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. VENTILATION IMPROVES FRI/SAT BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL REGRESS TOWARDS THE DRIER.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE NE PLAINS WHERE SEVERAL MOIST
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE OVER THE AREA. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RUC AND HRRR SHOW THIS AREA FAVORED FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST HAVE REMOVED MENTION. ALSO MADE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD
WHEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IMPACTS THE STATE.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...655 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
PLACED SMOKE BACK INTO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT IN AREAS OUTLINED BY
ONGOING INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION EFFORTS. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL
BE IN THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF FIRES AND AROUND LOS ALAMOS...SANTA
FE...ESPANOLA...AND LAS VEGAS. BANNERS HAVE BEEN PLACED ON OUR
PUBLIC PAGE TO LINK FOR THE SMOKE OUTLOOK. THE NDFD AIR QUALITY
PAGE AT AIRQUALITY.WEATHER.GOV/SECTORS/SOUTHROCKIES.PHP ALSO
PROVIDES SOME INFO ON SURFACE SMOKE AND COLUMN INTEGRATED VALUES.
GUYER
.PREV DISCUSSION...609 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THOUGH ISOLATED HIGH BASED AND
MOSTLY DRY SHRA AND TSRA WITH BRIEFLY STRONG GUSTS TO LINGER TIL
ABOUT 04Z SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GUP TO BELEN...THE NW PLATEAU AND
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTHERN PORTION OF NE HIGHLANDS. A
FEW VIRGA RELATED CONVECTIVE GUSTS ARE POSS AT GUP...THOUGH NOT
CONSIDERED HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO MENTION IN GUP TAF. A FEW WETTER
SHRA AND TSRA SHOWERS STORM ARE LIKELY OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...A VERY FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH
HIGH WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. BACK DOOR FRONT TO COME INTO NE
NM OVERNIGHT AND ENGULFING NE THIRD TO HALF OF NM BY END OF FCST
PERIOD...00Z THU. AREAS MVFR TO IFR CIGS A PRETTY GOOD POTENTIAL
AFTER 07Z FROM THE KRTN AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KTCC.
AFT 18Z OR 19Z WED STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA POTENTIAL IN AREAS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF SANGRE DE CRISTOS SE INTO EAST CENTRAL AND
PERHAPS SE PLAINS. 43
.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013...
UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINING WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR CLASSIC
PYROCUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THOMPSON RIDGE FIRE. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE NOW INCREASING OVER NRN NM AND SRN CO...ON THE WINGS OF A
SUBTLE 50KT SW-NE SPEED MAX/JET STREAK. AND WITH THE VERY WARM TO HOT
LOW LEVELS...STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED DRY STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NM...PRODUCING ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL. BACKDOOR FRONT OVER FAR NE NM LOSING OUT TO THE SWLY
FLOW TO THE WEST...FOR NOW. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WHERE THE WEAK WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY TO CREATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THERE ALONG WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE FROM THE RATON MESA
EAST INTO NORTHERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH NIGHT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATING THAT AN MCC WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH RAIN COOLED AIR STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE HIGH
FURTHER. THIS WILL ACT TO SEND THE BACKDOOR FRONT ROARING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. QUITE THE LINE OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY SPAWNING DRY STORMS
ALONG THE WEST MESA AND POINTS WEST TO MOUNTAIN TAYLOR OR SO AS
THE AIRMASS PUSHES WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAISED POPS FOR THE VALLEY...MAINLY
FROM THE WEST MESA OF THE ABQ METRO WESTWARD TO THE WEST- CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS...ALBEIT MOST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TO HWY 60 EAST OF SANTA
ROSA EAST TO THE TX LINE. NAM12 PROGGING 2000-2500J/KG MU CAPE
VALUES ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF AROUND 30KTS.
MOST ACTIVE DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN THE HIGHEST
PWATS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAKING FOR MAINLY WET
STORMS. NW PLATEAU EXPECTED TO HAVE LIMITING MOISTURE INCREASE...MAKING
STORMS THERE MAINLY OF THE DRY VARIETY. STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ~2000J/KG OF CAPE
AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30KTS RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
MOST ACTIVE AREA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT FRIDAY BUT STILL PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND ERN PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DRIER AND WARMER/HOTTER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOTTEST DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER AND 700MB TEMPS CLIMB
TO NEAR 20C. 33
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO EARTH SHATTERING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RGV WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUT IN A GAP WIND AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE RGV. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS A TAD OVERALL AND TO PUSH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER WEST. WHERE THE DRY/WET BOUNDARIES END
UP WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER MAINLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MTS. OBSERVED DEWPTS
SUCH THAT LITTLE TO NO RAIN WOULD FALL WITH ANY SHOWERS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLD LIGHTNING
STRIKES BUT NOT EXPECTING AN OUTBREAK.
NAM12/RUC INDICATE A NORTHEAST SFC GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER NE NM
TONIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY WASHING OUT AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE
STRONGER SURGE DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED
TO STRETCH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SWD TO THE CLINES CORNERS AREA
THROUGH PORTALES...WHERE WETTER CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED.
RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT TO BE POOR WEST AND CENTRAL WHILE GOOD OR EVEN
EXCELLENT IN THE NORTHEAST. MIXING HTS FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE...LEADING TO SOME FAIR
TO GOOD VENTILATION VALUES FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST WHILE EXCELLENT
VALUES ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND WEST WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 7 TO 15 PERCENT WHILE 30S OR GREATER WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT.
CHANCE FOR A MIX OF WET/DRY STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WETTER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
VENT RATES IN THE EAST THURSDAY RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THAT PART OF THE STATE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES WILL STRETCH FROM THE WEST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WWD.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING
FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK...BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. SATURDAY LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
THIRD TO HALF...UNLESS A SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO FIND IT/S WAY INTO
THE STATE. ANOTHER...BUT WEAK...WIND SHIFT IN THE EAST FOR SUNDAY
PROGGED. GFS GENERATES NO QPF WITH THIS...HOWEVER THERE IS A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. VENTILATION IMPROVES FRI/SAT BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL REGRESS TOWARDS THE DRIER.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
402 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS THE EXITING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL EVIDENT AS
FAR WEST AS GLEN ULLIN. THE 02 THROUGH 06 UTC HRRR...ALONG
WITH OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS...HAS MAINTAINED THE IDEA THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
BASED ON THE REDUCED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEVIATES FROM THE HRRR THINKING AND
CLEARS OUT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FLOOD WATCHES...ADVISORIES...AND WARNINGS HAVE ALL BEEN
MAINTAINED SO THAT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CAN BE CONTACTED TO
ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF AREAL AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
MORNING.
PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT HAS ONLY MANAGED
TO FORM AT JAMESTOWN THUS FAR. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING HIGHER AT OTHER LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A FEW
TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES FOR
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
THE PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING EAST OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER
MY WEST AND NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME.
BOTH THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON NEAREST TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED GREAT LAKES OPEN WAVE. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AM
NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
WEAK S/WV RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN SINC FOR THE ONSET OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE GEM/NAM/AND ECMWF WITH A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE AND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK BY AROUND 6
HOURS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH AFTERNOON
POPS FAR WEST AND NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
BASED ON THE ADVERTISED LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL MAY
SEE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR WINDS.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES. A THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOW STRONG
AND WHERE DEPENDS ON HOW FAST A SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE WEST TO EAST SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LIFR FOG AT KJMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL 16Z...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DUE TO
RAIN SHOWERS VERY CLOSE TO THE AERODROME. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR/VFR AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT...WHILE IFR LOW STRATUS WILL
HOLD ON UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...WITH THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY FOR ROLLETTE...PIERCE...SHERIDAN...WELLS
AND FOSTER COUNTIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL THE PAST 2-3
DAYS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ022-023-025.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
107 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING REMAINS ON FLOOD POTENTIAL. RAINFALL
INTENSITY HAS FINALLY LESSENED...AND RIVER RESPONSES ARE BEING
CLOSELY MONITORED. THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN RECEIVED THE GREATEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MONDAY...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES ESTIMATED BY
DOPPLER RADAR BELOW LAKE DARLING. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
AND UPDATED...BUT THE DES LACS AT FOXHOLM IS RESPONDING A LITTLE
FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
AS FOR GRIDDED FORECASTS...A CONSENSUS BLEND OF AVAILABLE NEAR
TERM MODELS KEEPS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 200
CORRIDOR THROUGH MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW. FOG HAS YET TO
FORM...PROBABLY BECAUSE WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 10 KNOTS...SO
FORECASTS STILL ONLY REFLECT PATCHY FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE MAIN PROBLEMS THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE RAIN AND FLOODING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS HAS LED TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...LOCAL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. FLOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOMORROW AS THE
RAIN COMES TO AN END.
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDE...ALTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...00 UTC HRRR...00
UTC RAP. ALSO ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. SOME
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR OR AT ZERO ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS SEEMS TO BE PLAUSIBLE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND A STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER PARKED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...22 UTC HRRR
AND 21 UTC RAP MODELS...INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING IN ERNEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED AND EXTENDED IN
TIME FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATER THIS
EVENING THE LOW WILL DEPART NORTH DAKOTA AND ENTER WESTERN
MINNESOTA BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER AN AREA WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IS
CAUSING EXCESS WATER TO RUN OFF. THIS RUN OFF HAS LED TO SMALL STREAM
AND LOW LAND FLOODING. RUN OFF IS ALSO INFILTRATING THE SOURIS
RIVER BASIN WHERE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION FOR MORE FLOOD RELATED INFORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS CONTINUED HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS
FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON PROPAGATING INTO
MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GUIDANCE FOR ALL FIELDS.
FOR THIS EVENING PRIOR TO SUNSET...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
I-94 CORRIDOR EAST OF BISMARCK AND POINTS SOUTH AS A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IS SETTING UP AS WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...FAVORABLE FOR NON-SUPERCELL/LANDSPOUT TORNADOES. THIS
AREA HAS SEEN SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN
SURFACE DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. WITH LARGE
AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE VORTICITY AND LOW LCLS...ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRETCH THE
ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY INTO A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD OR PERHAPS A
WEAK TORNADO.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WITH NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS WHICH PERHAPS RADIATION FOG ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE 12 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
12 UTC ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WITH PAST GFS MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS
STILL FASTER WITH MOVING THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THE RECENT MODEL AGREEMENT GIVES A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL START
FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVE EAST.
MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THIS SYSTEM BEGINS SATURDAY AT 18 UTC WHEN THE
GFS DEVELOPS A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12 UTC SUNDAY.
DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE THE MODELS STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER SINCE THE GFS BRINGS IN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GFS SEVERE
PARAMETERS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SURFACED BASED CAPE ARE ALSO
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF FOR FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HEAVY
DOWN POURS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY IFR CEILINGS AT
KMOT/KBIS/KJMS/KDIK FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. LOOK FOR A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY AFTER 15Z
TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...WITH THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY FOR ROLLETTE...PIERCE...SHERIDAN...WELLS
AND FOSTER COUNTIES. FOR THE WATCH AREA...AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES THROUGH THE
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ022-023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
T HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS FA. SHRA CONTINUE TO ARC AROUND
SURFACE LOW NEAR JMS WHICH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SINCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS FORECAST LOW TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE LATER
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT PCPN EASTWARD. HIGH RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL LAST 24 HOURS IN
LINE WITH THIS THINKING SO TRENDED A GRADUAL DECREASE/EASTWARD
SHIFT IN PCPN/POPS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT POPS AND TEMPERATURES SEEM
IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN OVER THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES LOCALIZED
2-3 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SO ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SOME
LOCALIZED PONDING. ELSEWHERE ARC OF MAINLY MODERATE SHOWERS
CONTINUE FROM NW MN WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE/TRENDS AND RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY BE ON THE WANE OVER WATCH
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN WATCH UNTIL SOME GROUND TRUTH BECOMES
AVAILABLE. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING THE WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN ACROSS
N CENTRAL ND INTO NW FA WEAKENING SO PCPN AREA MAY BE STARTING TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING DID MAKE SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE THIS
UPDATE PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN PCPN BAND HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 AND HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHEST POPS TO THIS AREA. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE CONVECTION CONTINUES HOWEVER LESS COVERAGE SO TRIMMED
BACK ON POPS THIS AREA. THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF
FA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS HOWEVER CELLS HAVE
WEAKENED OVER PAST HOUR. BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAUSING
BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL NOT CHANGE MINIMUMS. SO
FAR NOT SEEING ANY PROBLEM AREAS FOR FLOODING WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL MAINTAIN
WATCH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL UTILIZE THE LATEST HRRR/RAP FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
20 UTC SURFACE LOW IS SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN WITH ITS WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM NEAR GWINNER
TO BROOKINGS SD. THE STACKED SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ESSENTIALLY
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 06 UTC...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THEREAFTER. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...BUT NARROW
CLEAR SLOT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAMESTOWN TO JUST WEST OF
WAHPETON. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL BE PRONE TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS GREATER LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY/
HELICITY IS REALIZED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED.
TO THE NORTH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM WEST OF MINOT TO NEAR LAKOTA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...
BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. WITH WET/SATURATED
SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST ND...CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE 1 TO 2
INCHES ACCUMULATION FROM DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3 TO 4 PLUS INCHES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15
UTC. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF COOL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING BY
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE ALL AGREEABLE WITH
THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE THE USUAL SPEED AND
PLACEMENT ISSUES. CONTINUED THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS. IT IS
LOOKING DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER OR COOLER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND UPPER WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CIGS WILL BE A REAL CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS VARY
BETWEEN MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERAL VFR VSBY. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE AM AS RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW
PROPAGATES EASTWARD. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ALREADY WET
SOILS DUE TO RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...OVERLAND FLOODING
AND FLOODING NEAR AREA RIVERS ARE A CONCERN.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE.
MOST TRIBUTARIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RED RIVER BASIN
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE TWO RIVERS RIVER
AT HALLOCK EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW OR
THURSDAY. CONTINUED INFLOW INTO THE RED IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL
RISES BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVER STAGES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026>030-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1124 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE APPROACHING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND SHOULD IMPACT GAG/WWR BETWEEN 5-7Z. RATHER WARM
7H TEMPS MAY LIMIT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS OVERNIGHT
BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR BRING AN MCS THROUGH A LARGE
PART OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAOMA THROUGH 12-14Z THURSDAY.
WILL MENTION TSRA AT MOST SITES DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS.
WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE...
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING... HOWEVER IT STILL
APPEARS THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF
WESTERN KS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN AFFECT
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. STILL APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE A WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND MAY MOVE NEAR SPS BETWEEN 1-3Z. ANY STORM
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. STORMS MAY
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 6Z AND THEN MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. VERY WARM 7H TEMPS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS CAN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MENTION TSRA AT SITES
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL PEAK LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
ROLL ACROSS A FLATTENED MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS PLACES US IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...FAVORING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT MARCH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. WE CAN
EXPECT ONE OR MORE OF THESE CLUSTERS BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. PERHAPS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD THREAT WILL DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MEANDER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA. A RICH MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE LIFTED UP AND OVER THE
FRONT...AIDED BY A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. THIS RAPID VERTICAL
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN FACT...ISOLATED LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...LEADING TO A
HEIGHTENED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
REMAIN SATURATED FROM FLOODING LAST WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED RIVER
FLOOD THREAT WILL DEVELOP AS RUNOFF REACHES CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
LARGER RIVER BASINS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF FLOODING...AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. THIS
THREAT WILL BE GREATEST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT HEADING INTO THE
NIGHT EACH NIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ENSUE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY...THOUGH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
POTENTIAL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS THIS SLOW MOVING
UPPER WAVE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD BRING US INTO A HOTTER DRIER PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 82 63 76 / 60 30 70 40
HOBART OK 67 89 63 80 / 30 30 60 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 93 68 81 / 20 20 70 40
GAGE OK 66 78 57 77 / 60 50 40 10
PONCA CITY OK 66 77 60 77 / 70 60 60 10
DURANT OK 69 90 70 78 / 30 20 70 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-
050>052.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE WEEK...AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO OUR AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM...LATEST TRENDS FROM THE TCLT INDICATE THAT A CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...NEAR
KUZA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 6 TO 8Z. THE
LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE DECREASE RECENTLY...WITH ALL LIGHTNING IC UP
TO THIS POINT. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
ENCOUNTER LESS UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH. THEREFORE...THE
CLUSTER SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. I WILL
UPDATE THE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY THIS MORNING.
AS OF 1030 PM...STILL A FEW SHWRS LINGERING IN THE N-CENTRAL SC
ATTM...BUT OVERALL...THINGS ARE QUIET. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
AS OF 745 PM...POPS WERE FURTHER CUT BACK FOR THIS EVENING PER RADAR
AND SAT TRENDS. I DID NOT REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...AS NAM STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTBY
WHILE ATOP INCREASING SELY MOIST LLVL FLOW. UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT
BE AS GOOD AS LAST COUPLE NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...SO WILL
KEEP POPS AT SLGT CHC. OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK.
AS OF 430 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX RIGHT
OVER THE CWFA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ALL
SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE BEHIND THIS VORT...WHICH MAY EXPLAIN
WHY SUCH A HEALTHY CU FIELD ON VIS SAT IS NOT DEVELOPING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE LAPS CAPE IN THE NC MTNS AND NW PIEDMONT ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...WHILE THE UPSTATE AND NE GA HAVE
1000 J/KG TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ALONG SE BORDER OF CWFA. THE CAE RADAR
SHOWS A NWWD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BNDRY APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDLANDS. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS AGREE ON A FEW SHWRS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OUTFLOW...GENERALLY AFT SUNSET. SO I HAVE TRIMMED POP BACK
TO JUST SLGT CHC...FAVORING THE NC MTNS AND THE LWR PIEDMONT CLOSE
TO THE OUTFLOW BNDRY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET EVENING. THE REST
OF THE GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK.
AT 230 PM EDT...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE REMAINS OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
ENE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO ENE...INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT PROFILES ARE NOT CAPPED ON WEDNESDAY.
VERY LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK MID
LEVEL CAP. ALTHOUGH FLOW BECOMES MORE ORTHOGONAL TO ELEVATED TERRAIN
WITH TIME...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LOWERS THE CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHETHER THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF
THE FRONT DRIFTING NORTH...OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE SURGING INTO OUR
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
REMAINS IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED
ON WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING UPSLOPE FLOW AND NO CAP ALOFT SUPPORT A
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL..WITH MAXIMUMS
WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS COVER INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE OHIO
AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WED NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS WRN NC
WED EVENING. THE WAVE ACTUALLY HAS CONVECTIVE ORIGINS AND IT SHOWS
UP WELL ON THE 12 UTC GFS INITIALIZATION AND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE ERN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST WITH A VERY WEAK LOOKING WEDGE SIGNATURE OVER THE
REGION...THOUGH THIS COULD BE MORE THE RESULT OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROUGH. AT ANY RATE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE WEAK OVER THE
REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVER THE SOUTH...AND 10 TO 15
KTS OVER WRN NC. BUT PW/S WILL INCREASE TO 150-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. THIS KIND OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND I
HAVE POPS ACTUALLY INCREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATER AT
NIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ANY CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER
OFF. CONSIDERING THE HIGH PW/S THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
THE GFS TAKES ANOTHER MCV ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL LOW SLOWLY
ORGANIZING NEAR THE NRN YUCATAN SHOULD BEGIN MOVING UP...OR AT LEAST
TOWARED...THE SE COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
TRACKING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MUCH TOO
FAR TO THE WEST...EXHIBITING IT/S USUAL PROBLEMS WITH TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IF IT WERE TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-LANDS WHILE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING A SWATH OF HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WRN CAROLINAS. IT
APPEARS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME THAT WE WILL BE CONTENDING
MORE WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD STILL BRING PLENTY
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AND JUST ADD ANOTHER WRINKLE...IF THE GULF LOW WERE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED...SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE LOW COULD ACTUALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE REGION STARTING LATER ON THU.
BY FRIDAY THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM A WAYS TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH
THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF IS ALMOST 18 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY OUR MOST
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS FROM THE LOW WOULDN/T BE UNTIL FRIDAY. I
ORIGINALLY WROTE THIS SAYING THAT WE WOULD FACE A SEVERE THREAT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF...THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FRIDAY
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS FAIRLY UNSETTLED.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW TRACK...BRINGING IT FARTHER EAST AND
MINIMIZING EFFECTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING DURING THE SAME PERIOD...PRECIPITATION LOOKS
FAIRLY LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY. POPS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND A SECONDARY FRONT
PASSES ON SUNDAY. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO BE CAPPED
FAIRLY WELL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND AND FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TO THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 545Z...LATEST TRENDS FROM THE TCLT INDICATE THAT A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...NEAR KUZA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 6
TO 8Z. THE LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE DECREASE RECENTLY...WITH ALL
LIGHTNING IC UP TO THIS POINT. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER LESS UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE CLUSTER SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS SHOULD LOWER VIS TO 2 MILES AT
TIMES BETWEEN 6 TO 8Z...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A TEMPO. AFTER
8Z...NAM FORECAST SOUNDING AND MOS BLEND INDICATE THAT CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR...POTENTIAL FOR IFR DURING THE PRE DAWN.
CLOUD BASES WILL LINGER MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO VFR BY 16Z. INCREASES IN AFTER
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LFC SHOULD FAVOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
20-23Z...HIGHLIGHTED WITH PROB30. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...AT 545Z...REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. I WILL INITIALIZE
THE 6Z TAF WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KGSP/KGMU/KAVL. KHKY AND KAND
REMAIN VFR...BUT MOS AND NAM SOUNDINGS TIME MVFR BETWEEN 7-8Z. CLOUD
BASES SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE PRE DAWN PERIOD...IFR CLOUDS
LIKELY ACROSS KGSP/KGMU/KAVL...WITH MVFR FOG AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES
WILL LINGER MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...EVENTUALLY
LIFTING TO VFR DURING THE MID DAY. INCREASES IN AFTER INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH LOW LFC SHOULD FAVOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
19-23Z...HIGHLIGHTED WITH PROB30. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY IN A PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RETURN TO
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THU-SAT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 89% HIGH 93% HIGH 90% HIGH 94%
KGSP HIGH 93% HIGH 96% HIGH 97% HIGH 94%
KAVL HIGH 84% HIGH 82% HIGH 86% HIGH 87%
KHKY HIGH 90% HIGH 98% HIGH 89% HIGH 94%
KGMU HIGH 88% HIGH 91% HIGH 97% HIGH 94%
KAND HIGH 87% HIGH 92% HIGH 96% HIGH 87%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH/VISIN
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JOH/VISIN
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1218 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU KGUY AND KDHT AND
SHOULD MOVE THRU KAMA AROUND 09Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FILL IN BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERSIST MUCH OF THIS FCST CYCLE. RETAINED PREVIOUS
FCSTRS IDEA OF AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES. TSTMS AFFECTING
ANY ONE PARTICULAR SITE DURG NEXT 24 HOURS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ELEMENT...
AND HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO ASSESS FURTHER IF NECESSARY.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CANCELLATION OF SVR
TSTM WATCH 277 FOR SRN TX PNHDL.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WHILE A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS OR 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE EITHER A VCTS OR TEMPO GROUP AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MVFR FOR CEILINGS AS LOWER CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE..
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 277.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK WHILE THE
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL TX/OK PANHANDLES. LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
EVENING. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITHIN A 200 MI RADIUS OF KAMA ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CU DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM. LIKE
YESTERDAY HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. EVENING POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AS LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE NEAR THE
FRONT AND DRYLINE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. FURTHERMORE A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET MAY
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD LATER IN THE DAY WED AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AMA CWA...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW
LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER UPSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER SO THE INTENSITY OF DIURNAL
HEATING WILL NOT BE AS GREAT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM...
HAVE DECREASED STORM CHANCES THURS DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH
THE UPPER AIR WX PATTERN DISPLAYING A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES IN THE
EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
POPS WITH THE THINKING THAT ANY CONVECTION FORMING ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
BEYOND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MID WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL QUITE A
WAYS OUT IN TIME.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT...THEREBY PRECLUDING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEK. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD SO ITS LIKELY SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE VERY LITTLE OR NOT EVEN ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A BIT OF A LULL COMING IN THE RAIN...BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME MARGINAL STABILITY IS SEEN IN THE RADAR
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POST THE RAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AT
THIS TIME. HAVE TIMED A BACK EDGE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EXITING CENTRAL WI BY MIDNIGHT.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL REDEVELOPMENT TAKE. HAVE BEEN
MONITORING THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING EJECTING EAST
AND EXCITING THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IN CO. THIS WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SPOKE AROUND THE WHEEL OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL/MOVE THE LOW
EASTWARD AND WORK WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN
DEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNRISE. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS DEPICTED IN
THE LATEST RAP AND 05.00Z NAM TO BECOME CONFLUENT ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE IN WRN IA AND WRN MN SHIFT
EAST. KMPX 00Z RAOB ON ERN EDGE OF THAT TONGUE NOW WITH SATURATION
DOWN TO 900MB...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOWER CEILINGS IN
THE NEAR IFR CATEGORY WEST OF I-35. AS THIS ADVECTS EAST AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES...ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT
ALOFT...SHRA SHOULD AGAIN BREAK OUT IN THE WRN FORECAST AREA...AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A BAND OF SHRA SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM SW-NE BY
MORNING...AND SHIFTING EAST. HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE THIS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH INSTABILITY STILL AROUND SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED LIFT KICKS IN.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD THEN SEE A BREAK AFTER THE MORNING SHRA SHIFT
EAST. DEPENDING ON IF THE SUN COMES OUT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY /CURRENTLY ALONG DAKOTAS-MN
BORDER/ SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS/SHRA EXISTS BY AFTERNOON. RIGHT
NOW...IT SEEMS CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE BOUNDARY VERY CLOSE TO THE
MISS RIVER OR SLIGHTLY WEST...AROUND AFTERNOON AND THE WIND SHIFT MOVING
VERY SLOWLY AS THE LOW TRANSLATES SE. 05.00Z NAM HAS REDUCED THE
CAPE BY 50 PERCENT VERSUS 04.18Z RUN...IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
REALLY MAKES SENSE...IT HAS LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WHICH
IS REASONABLE. WIND SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT CAPE SEEMS TO BE QUITE
LOW...500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW AND HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME
CURVATURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT
SEVERE STORM THREATS LOOK QUITE MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW IS ON THE PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER WITH THIS RAIN.
CURRENTLY...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ANALYZED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL IOWA.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE POKING UP INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA PER 04.18Z RAP ANALYSIS. BECAUSE OF THIS...THUNDER
HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CELLS TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN GREATLY LIMITED FROM GREEN BAY WEST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE RAIN HAS NOT LET UP FOR MUCH
OF TODAY.
AS THIS FIRST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATER IN THE EVENING. DEEP LIFT WILL
OCCUR AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH. WHILE THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THAT CAN HEAT UP A BIT. A NARROW CHANNEL
OF 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE DOES APPEAR TO FORM
AHEAD OF THIS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND COULD LEAD TO SOME
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THIS LINE. THIS IS ALL CONDITIONAL UPON
SKIES CLEARING OUT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY UP HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS DECENT AT 40
KTS...BUT IS UNIDIRECTIONAL ALOFT WITH NOT MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ZERO. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRENDING THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE MID TO SURFACE LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE IN WITH IT. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
WHILE THE OVERALL IDEA FOR THE 500MB PATTERN IS SIMILAR GOING INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO
THE REGION...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES OF THIS VORT MAX
BETWEEN THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM. THE 04.12Z ECMWF DIVES THE
TROUGH FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH WHICH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 04.12Z GFS/GEM TAKE THE
TROUGH MORE WEST TO EAST AND KEEPS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHICH SOLUTION
WILL BE CORRECT...THEY ALL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TIMING OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDING ON SUNDAY
THOUGH THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING A TAD SLOWER WITH THE CLEARING.
NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS LIFTS A WARM FRONT
BACK INTO THE REGION. LEFT SOME SMALL CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
HELP RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LIFT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER MVFR BY SUNRISE AS THE
SHRA MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE. VSBY SHOULD REMAIN MVFR IN THE RAIN.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AS ONE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST IN THE
MORNING AND SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD...IT APPEARS SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND THU
MORNING...BUT DETAILS ON THE EXTENT AND VSBY RESTRICTION ARE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CLEARING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
320 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG
I80 FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY NEBRASKA. RAIN HAS BEEN MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...AND HAS BEEN TRAINING OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS SINCE LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
110KT JET MAX PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD COME
TO AND END BY NOON TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 60 TO 65 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS CARBON AND CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 5C. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS THE I80 SUMMIT THIS
MORNING.
COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S LIKELY. WITH CLEARING SKIES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
KEEP FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDER SHOWER NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...WARMEST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND IN THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
STILL HAVE SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA.
MODELS PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE PANHANDLE AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. BUT IT IS REAL SPOTTY AND WOULD THINK MOST
LOCATIONS ARE GOING TO BE DRY. DID DECREASE POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOK COMPLETELY DRY WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +16C OUT OVER
CARBON COUNTY. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAKING IT BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TURNS WINDS EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TADS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO
LARAMIE. LATEST HR RR RUN SHOWING THIS AREA GOING DOWN IN MFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT 08Z AT KS NY AND THE 09-10Z TIME FRAME
FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SHOWING
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF AN ALLIANCE TO HARRINGTON LINE.
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPING FLOW...WOULD BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE IDEAL
FOR UPSLOPE STRATUS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOIST EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED TODAY EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE THIS WEEK. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TET
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1131 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE DROVE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON MON AFTN...WHICH STALLED OVER NORTHERN CO
AND IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WAS EVIDENT OVER NORTHWEST WY PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...AND IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM LATE THIS AFTN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS FALL TO 0-2C IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP
TODAY...ONLY AROUND 6-6.5 DEG C/KM ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH IMPROVED LLVL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD
SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE PER AREA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THAT SAID...ENVIRONMENT
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS PERIOD ONCE
FORCING BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NORTHEAST AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL SET UP MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE...LIKELY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
LATE AFTN. TSTMS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD...BUT SOME
COULD BE STRONG ON THE WYOMING SIDE OF THE CWA. COLD THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SMALL HAIL AS SOUNDINGS SHOW HAIL GROWTH
ZONES CAPES APPROACHING 200 J/KG. WE HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED MENTION
OF GUSTY WINDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL-MIXED WITH A DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER...WHICH COULD SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. MUCH LIKE
LAST EVENING...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY SEVERE STORM
DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY LIMITED THREAT.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY QUICKLY WANES THIS EVE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING...MINIMIZING THE THREAT FOR THUNDER AFTER 02Z
THIS EVE. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR BETWEEN CYS AND SNY LATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
UP-GLIDE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING VERTICAL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER
PCPN RATES WITH LLVL UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALLOW FOR FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT AGL AND GOOD LLVL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. BELIEVE SFC WINDS WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THINGS MIXED AND AVERT FOG...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
MONITOR. HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FCST ATTM.
IF FOG DOES INDEED DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER THE
I80 SUMMIT BETWEEN LAR AND CYS. FOG AND/OR STRATUS COULD BE
TOUGH TO BURN OFF WITH PERSISTENT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WITH
700 MILLIBAR TEMPS NEAR 0C WOULD EXPECT A COOL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. IT WILL
NOT BE UNTIL LATE AFTN WED WHEN THE SHORTWAVE FINALLY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS UNTIL THE WED NIGHT PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
RISING HEIGHTS ON THURS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AS 700MB TEMPS
COME UP AROUND 8C FROM WED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE. THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRI SEEMS TO BECOME WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH EACH MODEL RUN. SFC TROUGH IS STILL ADVERTISED TO BE ALONG
THE WY- NE BORDER DURING THE AFTN WITH AROUND 750-1000 J/KG OF
CAPE IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST
OF THE PLAINS ON FRI AFTN...ALTHOUGH BEST THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WOULD BE IN THE PANHANDLE. VERY WARM WEEKEND IN STORE WITH
700MB TEMPS AROUND 13-16C AND GENERAL WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
IN PLACE. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND
40-50 SFC DEW POINTS ARE ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. FOR
TEMPS DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...DID NOT GO QUITE AS
WARM AS THE MEX GUIDANCE (WHICH SHOWS MID TO UPPER 80S IN
CHEYENNE) BUT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE AND THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO
LARAMIE. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWING THIS AREA GOING DOWN IN MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT 08Z AT KSNY AND THE 09-10Z TIME FRAME
FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SHOWING
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF AN ALLIANCE TO TORRINGTON LINE.
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPING FLOW...WOULD BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE IDEAL
FOR UPSLOPE STRATUS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MOIST EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND
THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVE...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL BEGIN TO SEE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS AREA FUELS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
519 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
...COOL AND CLOUDY ACROSS THE EAST...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DRAG ACROSS NORTHEAST CO THIS MORNING...WITH
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/PV LOBE NEARING THE 4 CORNERS REGION MOVING
ACROSS NRN NM TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER ASSOC WITH LOW LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN BACA
COUNTY...PRODUCING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. BUT THIS AXIS SHOULD
BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
FOR TODAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE CO IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. INSTEAD...A SPOTTY LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SOUTH
ALONG/BEHIND THE SECONDARY PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RUC13 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE PLAIN TODAY...WITH DEW POINT GRADIENT LYING UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WITH AFTN HEATING AND SOME
INCOMING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY STABLE ACROSS THE PLAINS THOUGH
DEEPLY SATURATED...SO THINK MAJORITY OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SOME SHOWERS. WITH AFTN HEATING...THE RATON MESA REGION
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CAPE VALUES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY...AROUND 20-30 KTS...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE PULSEY
IN NATURE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CORES...THOUGH SUSPECT IT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH IN
DIAMETER...THUS THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT. FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THIS REGION WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN CLOSER TO
PROXIMITY TO ENERGY FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LACK OF FORCING
TO KEEP IT GOING. LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN STRONG ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S)
IN SPITE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT. MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. FOR NOW
THOUGH...UPSLOPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THINK THIS WILL BE MORE
STRATUS THAN A FOG EVENT. BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL MESSAGE WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
TIMES.
LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ETC. INDICATE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEVADA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO
NEW MEXICO BY LATER SUNDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT THAT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK(WHEN COMPARED TO TODAYS TEMPERATURES) AS
PROJECTED I-25 CORRIDOR 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AFTERNOON
READINGS AROUND 7C TODAY TO AROUND 20C OR HIGHER FROM SUNDAY INTO AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
ALSO...EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...WHERE
SOME GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS MAY DEVELOP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THEN BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS(PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224) ARE
PROJECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. LATEST FUELS PAGE STILL INDICATES THAT FUELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THIS REGION UNTIL THE FUELS
STATUS CHANGES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT ON TUESDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES START RUNNING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED
100F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
MVFR TO POCKETS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. KPUB WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR TO MVFR
CATEGORY...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KCOS. THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME -SHRA AFFECTING BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN EITHER TAF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MVFR TO VFR CIGS TO PERSIST ALL DAY...WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY FOR KCOS TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KPUB. KALS WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...THEN VFR CIGS WITH -TSRA
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE VALLEY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. THESE WILL BE STRONGER AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1024 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS. HEAVY CLOUD
COVER IS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING REFLECTS THIS WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RADAR
SIGNATURES SHOW ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MODERATE RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THIS DIMINISHING AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE PENINSULA AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH
CURRENTLY ONLY HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE LIGHT RAIN BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IT DOES SHOW SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. SO FOR THAT REASON WILL SCALE BACK ON THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013/
AVIATION...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED FAST MOVING SHRA WILL BE
LIKELY IN THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT KAPF
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR KAPF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MVFR CIGS FOR THE EAST COAST AS
WELL AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...LEFT VFR FOR THE EAST COAST FOR NOW. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013/
.VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY...
SHORT TERM...
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE
SHORT RANGED MODELS TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN
PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SO THE POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSEST TO THE LOW BEFORE SPREADING OVER
REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS THE LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS TODAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
WITH THE LOW APPROACHING NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
HELICITY WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE FIRST OVER THE WEST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY AND THEN OVER REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS TODAY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS
TO POSSIBILITY ROTATE...AND THEN ANY STORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO ROTATE. SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TORNADOES IN THE MORNING HWO PACKAGE FOR THE WEST COAST FOR TODAY
AND THEN ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE MORE DIURNAL OVER THE AREA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BACK FROM A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE AREA TO GET BACK TO MORE A EARLY SUMMER
TIME WEATHER PATTERN. SO THE POPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE
GULF WATERS WHERE THEY WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR-SHORE AND 20 TO
25 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF WATERS WHERE
THEY SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR-SHORE AND 25 TO
30 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL THE SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BELOW
6 FEET TODAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS AND BUILD TO 6 TO 8
FEET IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BY THURSDAY. SO WILL PUT UP A
SCEC FOR THE NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS AND A SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SCEC MAYBE NEEDED FOR REST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AND A SCA FOR THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR REST OF THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE...DUE TO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH END OF THIS WEEK.
HYDROLOGY...
THE HPC MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE ANY TRAINING OCCURS OVER THE
AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY TO SEE IF A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 75 86 76 / 60 60 70 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 77 86 78 / 60 60 70 60
MIAMI 87 76 87 77 / 60 60 70 50
NAPLES 85 75 85 76 / 80 80 90 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GULF WATERS
FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED.
WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE IL RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY LATE WHILE KEEPING
EASTERN IL DRY. SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
EASTERN IL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR TODAY. SE WINDS STAYING
UNDER 10 MPH.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 633 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PRECIP
TODAY/TONIGHT...MOSTLY IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTION PASSING TO THE
SOUTH. WITH VARIED SOLUTIONS...FORECAST RATHER CONSERVATIVE.
PLENTY OF STRATOCU OUT THERE ALREADY IN THE SE...AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. CU RULE KEEPS A BKN AFTERNOON
CU FIELD. SHOWERS TO THE NW ARE ERODING FOR NOW...BUT EVENTUALLY
SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL SATURATE THE COLUMN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA. CONFIDENCE FOR PARTICULAR TIME FRAME IS LOW...CONSIDERING THE
TREND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS. KEEPING THE VCTS/VCSH MENTION IN
AFTER 00Z AND KEEPING IT THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT BEHAVIOR OF CURRENT MCS JUST TOO MUCH OF
A WILD CARD TO PUT FURTHER DEFINITION ON TIMING.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
ILLINOIS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...ALTHOUGH THE AIR BELOW
700 MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY PER RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR GALESBURG
AND MOLINE...SO AM NOT BANKING ON THESE SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWEST CWA AT THE MOMENT. A LARGE MCS COVERED MUCH OF KANSAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES NOT IN ANY BIG HURRY TO
LEAVE...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN OUR AREA A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. HAVE LIMITED MOST POPS TO AREAS WEST OF I-55...AND EVEN
THEN IT WOULD BE MORE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HAVE
MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST TOWARD I-57 THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...LINKING UP WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHEARS OUT...FOCUS
WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
BETWEEN SHOULD MOVE INTO ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESSENING
SUPPORT. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN MCS LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
WRF MODEL.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE FRONT STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...AND LIMITED THUNDER
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AS THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS
FURTHER. MAIN EMPHASIS WILL COME WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH THAT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT
HAS SHIFTED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH FROM THE 12Z RUN. THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MORE OF A THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR OUR AREA...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE MIDWEST IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL RING
OF FIRE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE LIKELY TRACK. THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH AND HAS OUR AREA MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED...WHILE
THE ECMWF FAVORS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
639 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
ILLINOIS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...ALTHOUGH THE AIR BELOW
700 MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY PER RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR GALESBURG
AND MOLINE...SO AM NOT BANKING ON THESE SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWEST CWA AT THE MOMENT. A LARGE MCS COVERED MUCH OF KANSAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES NOT IN ANY BIG HURRY TO
LEAVE...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN OUR AREA A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. HAVE LIMITED MOST POPS TO AREAS WEST OF I-55...AND EVEN
THEN IT WOULD BE MORE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HAVE
MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST TOWARD I-57 THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...LINKING UP WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHEARS OUT...FOCUS
WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
BETWEEN SHOULD MOVE INTO ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESSENING
SUPPORT. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN MCS LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
WRF MODEL.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE FRONT STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...AND LIMITED THUNDER
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AS THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS
FURTHER. MAIN EMPHASIS WILL COME WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH THAT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT
HAS SHIFTED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH FROM THE 12Z RUN. THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MORE OF A THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR OUR AREA...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE MIDWEST IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL RING
OF FIRE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE LIKELY TRACK. THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH AND HAS OUR AREA MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED...WHILE
THE ECMWF FAVORS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 633 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PRECIP
TODAY/TONIGHT...MOSTLY IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTION PASSING TO THE
SOUTH. WITH VARIED SOLUTIONS...FORECAST RATHER CONSERVATIVE.
PLENTY OF STRATOCU OUT THERE ALREADY IN THE SE...AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. CU RULE KEEPS A BKN AFTERNOON
CU FIELD. SHOWERS TO THE NW ARE ERODING FOR NOW...BUT EVENTUALLY
SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL SATURATE THE COLUMN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA. CONFIDENCE FOR PARTICULAR TIME FRAME IS LOW...CONSIDERING THE
TREND OF THE HIGH RES MODELS. KEEPING THE VCTS/VCSH MENTION IN
AFTER 00Z AND KEEPING IT THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT BEHAVIOR OF CURRENT MCS JUST TOO MUCH OF
A WILD CARD TO PUT FURTHER DEFINITION ON TIMING.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1046 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
SEVERAL WEAK...BUT MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE
BEST CHACNES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY 12Z THURS MODELS AGREE THAT POSITIVELY TILTED ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
REMNANTS OF SFC ENERGY WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS ILLINOIS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL DAYS LACK OF MSTR
ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
00Z RUN OF SEVERAL HI RES MODELS NOT PAINTING A GOOD PICTURE WITH
DRY LOW LEVEL SOUNDING...AS E/NE FLOW KEEPS MSTR FROM ADVECTING
IN. NAM/GFS/SREF/LOCAL WRF ALL KEEP THINGS PRETTY DRY TONIGHT.
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE TRIED TO TAKE COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS
OK/KS AND MOVE ENE WITH TIME. CORFIDI VECTORS AND LOCATION OF
DEEPEST MSTR WOULD INDICATE MORE OF A E OR SE TREND FOR CONVECTION
LEADING TO NO LIKELY CONTRIBUTION FROM THE COMPLEX FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. OTHER LIGHTER SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS IOWA INTO PORTIONS
OF WISCONSIN. THESE WERE STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...HAVE
LOWERED POPS BY AT LEAST 10 PERCENT...KEEPING EAST AREAS DRY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT AND TRENDS POPS TO LOW END CHC IN THE WEST.
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPR
50S AS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DECK DOES INCREASE AND THICKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF WEAKENING APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY WIND LOOKS TO INHIBIT EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
PCPN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS BUT TREND HAS
CERTAINLY BEEN SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. TEMPS
REMAIN COOL FOR EARLY JUNE IN LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE ACROSS AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS IN MID
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL TRENDS WITH PCPN IN THE
NEAR TERM COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM ALSO
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT MAIN ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH. DECENT
PV ANOMALY SO MODEL POPS RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO MAKE MANY SHORT WAVES IMPRESSIVE AT THIS RANGE.
SIDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST IN DAY 7 WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING POSSIBLE WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT VERSUS HIGH PRES RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ERN ONTARIO SSW INTO NRN INDIANA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STNRY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. DRY NE-E LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL CONT TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA.
UPR LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN TO WI THIS PERIOD. MID
CLOUD CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NWRN
INDIANA. A FEW -SHRA PSBL AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT BUT
POPS AND CONDITIONAL IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
725 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
SEVERAL WEAK...BUT MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY 12Z THURS MODELS AGREE THAT POSITIVELY TILTED ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
REMNANTS OF SFC ENERGY WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS ILLINOIS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL DAYS LACK OF MSTR
ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
00Z RUN OF SEVERAL HI RES MODELS NOT PAINTING A GOOD PICTURE WITH
DRY LOW LEVEL SOUNDING...AS E/NE FLOW KEEPS MSTR FROM ADVECTING
IN. NAM/GFS/SREF/LOCAL WRF ALL KEEP THINGS PRETTY DRY TONIGHT.
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE TRIED TO TAKE COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS
OK/KS AND MOVE ENE WITH TIME. CORFIDI VECTORS AND LOCATION OF
DEEPEST MSTR WOULD INDICATE MORE OF A E OR SE TREND FOR CONVECTION
LEADING TO NO LIKELY CONTRIBUTION FROM THE COMPLEX FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. OTHER LIGHTER SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS IOWA INTO PORTIONS
OF WISCONSIN. THESE WERE STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...HAVE
LOWERED POPS BY AT LEAST 10 PERCENT...KEEPING EAST AREAS DRY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT AND TRENDS POPS TO LOW END CHC IN THE WEST.
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPR
50S AS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DECK DOES INCREASE AND THICKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF WEAKENING APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY WIND LOOKS TO INHIBIT EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
PCPN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS BUT TREND HAS
CERTAINLY BEEN SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. TEMPS
REMAIN COOL FOR EARLY JUNE IN LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE ACROSS AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS IN MID
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL TRENDS WITH PCPN IN THE
NEAR TERM COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM ALSO
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT MAIN ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH. DECENT
PV ANOMALY SO MODEL POPS RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO MAKE MANY SHORT WAVES IMPRESSIVE AT THIS RANGE.
SIDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST IN DAY 7 WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING POSSIBLE WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT VERSUS HIGH PRES RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ERN ONTARIO SSW INTO NRN INDIANA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STNRY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. DRY NE-E LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL CONT TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA.
UPR LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN TO WI THIS PERIOD. MID
CLOUD CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NWRN
INDIANA. A FEW -SHRA PSBL AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT BUT
POPS AND CONDITIONAL IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
652 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRECIP TRENDS REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. CURRENT RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS PATCHY MAINLY KINEMATIC FORCING FROM ERN DAKOTAS
UPPER LOW SWD INTO IA. RAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CAPES A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH RESULTING IN SMALL UNFOCUSED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CYCLING UP AND DOWN AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST IN
THE MEAN FLOW. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS SCATTERED PRECIP
EVOLVES LATER IN THE DAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND
FORCING GRADUALLY EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIP REMAINING SE. HOWEVER SEVERAL HIGHER RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING RECENT HRRR...SPC SSEO ENSEMBLES AND 00Z
HIRES WRF RUNS ALL SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND FROM DEVELOPING
NRN KS MCV NEWD INTO IA AHEAD OF 1-3KM TROUGH. FEEL THIS CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED SO HAVE KEPT SCT WORDING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FAR
WEST AS I35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IN SPOTS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW WITH MLCAPES ONLY INCREASING TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WEAK NOW DUE TO ELEVATED NATURE
OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY HIGH...BY
THE TIME THE CONVECTION WOULD POTENTIALLY BECOME ROOTED LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON THOSE HIGHER VALUES SHOULD HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST WITH
OVERALL SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED. ONE
CONCERN WOULD BE BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES HOWEVER.
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SHALLOW MIXING AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED 0-3KM
CAPES. NST PARAMETER DOES RESPOND SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE DISORGANIZED SURFACE WIND FIELD AND
INSUFFICIENT ASSOCIATED VORTICITY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THIS WORDING INTO THE HWO...BUT SOMETHING TO
BE WATCHED DURING HEATING. PROBABLY PLENTY OF DRIFTING SCUD AT A
MINIMUM.
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM SW INTO N
CENTRAL IA AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
IT OVER PARTS OF NW IA. VISIBILITIES HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS OBS...BUT STILL MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG FOR A FEW HOURS
THERE. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY CONFIDENCE TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM MOS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS WERE FOCUSED ON THURSDAY MAX TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES...THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD A
NAM12/SREF AND THE HIRES-ARW AND NMM WRF THROUGH
THURSDAY...NAM/SREF FOR FRIDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND TAKES
THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY MOISTURE LOOKS TO SET UP
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT DAY OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK VORT MAX WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING
AND MOISTURE CUTS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GFS DEPICTING STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
ENTERING WESTERN IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES NOT
IMPRESSIVE RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROUGH MOVE
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING CENTRAL IOWA WITH WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DECENT MIXING BY THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MAY
HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP EVEN FURTHER IF TREND CONTINUES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE. 850MB TEMPS BACK TO +16C BY MONDAY AND
EVEN WARMER BY TUESDAY AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...05/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ALONG AND JUST BEHIND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH NOTED ALONG KCSQ-KDSM-KIFA-KAUM LINE PER 11Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RAISE AT LEAST
A CATEGORY INTO AFTERNOON HEATING. ALSO EXPECT MORE SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. SHOULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY GO TO ALL
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.
HOWEVER LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY RE-
INTRODUCE AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS IN SPOTS BY EARLY THU MORNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1101 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THUNDERSTORM ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING AT THE
LATEST TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING GOOD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AT 16Z...IT EXTENDED FROM ANTHONY TO
CHANUTE. THE 13Z HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST BORDER OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA MOVING
DOWN AND FURTHER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THAT FAR OFF GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AREA. THAT
SAID...THINK THESE WILL BE DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY BEHIND THE FRONT OR SLOWLY RISING
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS BOTH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROF PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RENEWED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TRENDS IS LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
PROGGED OVER THE FRONT.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LINE OF STRONG TSRA CAPABLE OF 35-40KT GUSTS CONTINUES TO STEADILY
MOVE E30KTS ACROSS SE KS. MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED ~2SM
+TSRA OCCURRING TIL ~14Z AT KCNU. TSRA SHUD EXIT SE KS ~14Z. CIGS
ARE GOING TO BE VERY PROBLEMATIC WITH 3-4 DECKS BEING REPORTED OVER
MOST AREAS RANGING FROM ~500FT TO ~10000KT. ALTHOUGH KRSL IS
REPORTING "BKN003" THE NEIGHBORING ASOS SITES HAVE REPORTED "SCT"
OR LESS. AS SUCH HAVE STARTED KRSL "VFR" BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
MORE TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S
ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THIS MORNING. THE EVENING & OVERNIGHT TAFS
WILL COVER THE LATTER PERIODS WHEN THE 18Z & 06/00Z ISSUANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 57 76 56 / 80 40 10 0
HUTCHINSON 74 55 76 54 / 70 40 10 0
NEWTON 70 56 75 55 / 80 40 10 0
ELDORADO 76 56 75 54 / 90 40 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 78 58 77 56 / 90 50 10 0
RUSSELL 67 52 76 54 / 50 30 10 0
GREAT BEND 69 53 76 54 / 50 30 10 0
SALINA 72 54 76 54 / 70 30 10 0
MCPHERSON 72 55 76 54 / 70 30 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 78 60 77 56 / 90 50 10 0
CHANUTE 74 58 76 55 / 90 40 10 0
IOLA 73 58 75 55 / 90 40 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 76 59 76 55 / 90 50 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
940 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE INBOUND
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WARM AND MOIST AIR THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
TODAY. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY
AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND NOON AND INCREASING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARLIEST IN THE SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS
ON AN OUTFLOW OR AS A CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. ADDITIONAL...MORE AIR MASS STYLE CONVECTION...LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PEAK HEATING. EXPECT THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA WITH TIME. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND ADJUST THEIR TIMING INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATED SET OF
ZONES AND NEW HWO HAS BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE ACTIVITY HAS FIRED IN AN AREA
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 63 OR HIGHER. THIS MAY BE THE MAGIC
NUMBER WE ARE LOOKING FOR AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES TODAY. AREAS IN
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR GETTING DEWPOINTS IN
THIS BALL PARK...SO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE SOUTH. THINGS ARE STARTING TO LOOK A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE FURTHER NORTH AS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER
40S. A NEARLY 15 POINT SWING IN DEWPOINTS WILL BE HARD TO MANAGE
DURING THE DAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THAT THREAT WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. FOR NOW...WILL ROLL WITH THE POPS WE HAVE AND GO FROM
THERE. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW STARTING TO DEPART TO OUR EAST AND HAS KEPT
OUR WEATHER VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL DEPART AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AFTER
DAYBREAK. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...MODELS SEEM TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY. THIS MAY KEEP POTENTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE MORE LIMITED.
PRESENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS
WAVE. WITH INSTABILITY IN QUESTION TODAY...KEPT POPS AT 40 OR BELOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STORMS
MAY NOT FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING AS IT TAKES MOST OF THE DAY FOR SFC MOISTURE TO RECOVER. BASE
ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY LOOKING
MORE SPORADIC TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY INSTABILITY
WHICH DEVELOPS.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CERTAINLY LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN
24 HOURS AGO...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN INSTABILITY AND
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF DECENT RAINFALL
LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS THU NITE WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST. DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A
TROPICAL LOW INTO GA THAT SHOWS UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
GFS ONLY HINTS AT A MINOR VORTICITY DISTURBANCE IN THIS AREA. IN ANY
CASE THE LONG WAVE TROF IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES PASS THRU BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY MON NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
TROF TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOLDS MORE RAIN INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THAN THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONGER TROPICAL LOW OVER NRN FLA WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER LOW AND PLACES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU NIGHT.
THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY END SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND THE TROPICAL LOW IS SWEPT OFF THE NEW ENG COAST.
THE GOOD WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST TOO LONG AS THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
ERN KY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THRU SRN CANADA AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE LOWER TENN VALLEY. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER BIT OF DRY WEATHER FOR WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM A COOL MID
70S ON FRI TO A WARM LOWER 80S FOR SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAS TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY. AFTER 18Z...SOME
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AND HANDLED THIS WITH VCTS AT THIS
POINT. WHERE THIS OCCURRED VIS AND OR CIGS MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS IFR
FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE ACTIVITY HAS FIRED IN AN AREA
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 63 OR HIGHER. THIS MAY BE THE MAGIC
NUMBER WE ARE LOOKING FOR AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES TODAY. AREAS IN
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR GETTING DEWPOINTS IN
THIS BALL PARK...SO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE SOUTH. THINGS ARE STARTING TO LOOK A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE FURTHER NORTH AS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER
40S. A NEARLY 15 POINT SWING IN DEWPOINTS WILL BE HARD TO MANAGE
DURING THE DAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THAT THREAT WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. FOR NOW...WILL ROLE WITH THE POPS WE HAVE AND GO FROM
THERE. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW STARTING TO DEPART TO OUR EAST AND HAS KEPT
OUR WEATHER VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL DEPART AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AFTER
DAYBREAK. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...MODELS SEEM TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY. THIS MAY KEEP POTENTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE MORE LIMITED.
PRESENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS
WAVE. WITH INSTABILITY IN QUESTION TODAY...KEPT POPS AT 40 OR BELOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STORMS
MAY NOT FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING AS IT TAKES MOST OF THE DAY FOR SFC MOISTURE TO RECOVER. BASE
ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY LOOKING
MORE SPORADIC TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY INSTABILITY
WHICH DEVELOPS.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CERTAINLY LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN
24 HOURS AGO...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN INSTABILITY AND
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF DECENT RAINFALL
LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS THU NITE WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST. DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A
TROPICAL LOW INTO GA THAT SHOWS UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
GFS ONLY HINTS AT A MINOR VORTICITY DISTURBANCE IN THIS AREA. IN ANY
CASE THE LONG WAVE TROF IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES PASS THRU BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY MON NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
TROF TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOLDS MORE RAIN INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THAN THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONGER TROPICAL LOW OVER NRN FLA WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER LOW AND PLACES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU NIGHT.
THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY END SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND THE TROPICAL LOW IS SWEPT OFF THE NEW ENG COAST.
THE GOOD WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST TOO LONG AS THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
ERN KY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THRU SRN CANADA AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE LOWER TENN VALLEY. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER BIT OF DRY WEATHER FOR WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM A COOL MID
70S ON FRI TO A WARM LOWER 80S FOR SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAS TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY. AFTER 18Z...SOME
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AND HANDLED THIS WITH VCTS AT THIS
POINT. WHERE THIS OCCURRED VIS AND OR CIGS MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS IFR
FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NE UP THE SE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE STALLED OUT COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...CENTRAL NC REMAINS
MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN
295-305K IS MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER WESTERN NC...AND A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER GEORGIA LAST EVENING. TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING
CLOUD COVER...AS CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING BEHIND THE BAND OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA. HRRR CEILING FORECASTS
SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY AND NEWEST MAV/MET VALUES
ARE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT FORECAST...IF NOT WARMER. THUS...DESPITE
CURRENT PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL LEAVE
HIGHS MOSTLY UNCHANGED..78-83.
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S. DIURNAL...WARM ADVECTION REGIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. -BLS
TONIGHT:
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SELY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN
THE 295-305K LAYER WILL BE SURE TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK...OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. THUS EXPECT NW PIEDMONT TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...
THREE PRIMARY FEATURES WILL DEFINE OUR FORECAST FOR THE WEEKS
END...INCLUDING A DEEPENING MID/UPR TROUGH OVER THE MISS AND TN
VALLEYS THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST...THE WARM FRONT THAT`S
PRESENTLY TO OUR SOUTH OVER SC...AND THE SFC LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON
THURSDAY...CROSSING OUR CWA DURING THE DAYTIME. EXPECT THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND AT THIS POINT FEEL COMFORTABLE INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF BETWEEN 18Z THUR
AND 03Z FRI. WHILE STABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...THUS AT THIS POINT SVR
THREAT LOOKS LIMITED WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PRECIP...THE CONSENSUS OF MOS
GUIDE...WHICH HOLDS HIGHS AROUND 80...LOOKS REASONABLE...IF NOT A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IN THE DAY THE RAIN
ARRIVES.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NE ACROSS THE SE STATES. AT THIS POINT...PREFER THE ECWMF
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY AND REASONABLE SFC PRESSURE EVOLUTION
AND ARRANGEMENT. LEANING TOWARD ITS SOLUTION...LOOK FOR BANDS OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW TO BEGIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...UP TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT... UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREV RUNS AND TRACKS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW FROM NEAR KSAV AT
12Z FRI TO NEAR KRIC BY 00Z SAT...TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG I-95
DURING THE DAYTIME AS IT MOVES ACROSS NC. TWO MAIN CONCERNS AS THEY
RELATE TO IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY INCLUDE...
1) POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC...AND SOME SPOTS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS
COULD RESULT IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR LOCATIONS THAT
SEE THE HEAVIER RAIN.
2) POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SVR CELLS OR PERHAPS A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELLS AND QUICK/BRIEF SPIN-UPS ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE WE SEE A JUXTAPOSITION OF THE
NOSE OF THE 50+ KT LLVL JET...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED 0-6KT
SHEAR...AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW VS THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AFT 00Z SAT
AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WHILE PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL LESSEN...CAN`T COMPLETELY REMOVE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE
L/W TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM OF US. 20-30 POPS SHOULD COVER PRECIP
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAV LOOKS TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SITUATION. WHILE WE DON`T BUY
INTO THE NAM SOLUTION...THE MET GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE FOR
TEMPS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY...BUT
WITH A LINGERING SFC TROUGH IN PLACE AND THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY...PREFER TO
KEEP AT LEAST LOW-END POPS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN OUR PREFERENCE FOR
THE ECMWF AND SENSIBLE WX EXPECTATIONS...PREFER MEL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WHICH SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. UNTIL IT IS EAST OF US HOWEVER...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM WEDNESDAY...
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH MVFR RANGE...TO VFR...BY LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
OUTLOOK...
LIFR TO MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SUCH DEVELOPMENT AT KINT AND KGSO. A
SURFACE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1005 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
15 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS FROM BEMIDJI
TO DETROIT LAKES TO FERGUS FALLS AND WAHPETON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 00
UTC TONIGHT. STARTING TO SEE SOME SUN ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND THINK THIS CLEARING SHOULD VERY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON LATEST RAP 925 TO 850 HPA RH PROFILE.
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
SO DECREASED TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS A FEW DEGREES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH. UPDATED POPS/WX/SKY/TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR ABOVE THINKING AND LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SFC LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF WAHPETON AT 12Z WITH UPPER LOW ALONG THE
ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA. FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTN AS IT MOVES EAST. BIG ISSUE
IS CLEARING TREND TODAY. CLEARING ENTERING FAR NW FCST AREA AND
THIS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST...BUT ALSO WITH LOTS OF 850 MB MOISTURE
WONDER IF WITH ANY SUN IT WILL CU UP. WILL LET FFA EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SFC LOW OVER VALLEY CITY AT 08Z WITH 500 MB LOW JUST SOUTH. MAIN
RAIN AREA HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST TOWARD BRAINERD-DULUTH-GRAND RAPIDS
MN AREAS. BUT FEED OF SHOWERS EXTENDS WEST INTO GRAND FORKS AREA
THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD JAMESTOWN. BUT THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT
BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH HEAVY RAINFALL. PAST 24-36 HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HIGHEST IN THE GRAND FORKS COUNTY REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
1.30 TO 2 INCHES WITH OTHER POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO SOUTHERN
WALSH AND NORTHWEST POLK COUNTIES WEST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
REGION. COORD WITH WFO BIS WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH TIL 12Z
EXPIRATION. HAVE HEARD NO ISSUES WITH FLOODING ANYWHERE FORTUNATELY.
AROUND SFC LOW IS SOME FOG WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AREA WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT IT WILL TAKE
MOST OF THE DAY FOR ALL PRECIP TO MOVE OUT. WILL HANG ONTO THE
CLOUDS A BIT LONGER THAN PREV FCST AS WELL...SOME CLEARING
ENTERING NW ND INTO WINNIPEG AND THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST...BUT HIGH 850 MB MOISTURE MAY MEAN SOME CUMULUS
REDEVELOPMENT WITH ANY SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
CLEARING...BUT 850 MB REMAINS STUBBORN SO FULL CLEARING MAY TAKE A
WHILE. TEMPS WARMING SLOWLY WITH NR 70 THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAKE A RETURN FRIDAY WITH LOWER 70S IN MOST
AREAS. DID NOT BRING IN ANY PRECIP TO NRN FCST AREA
FRIDAY....UKMET ONLY MODEL SHOWING SOME PRECIP IN FAR NRN VALLEY
DUE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU MANITOBA.
THERE IS GENERALLY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE VARIOUS
DYNAMIC MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. UPPER AIR
PATTERN SUGGESTS A FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LESS BLOCKING TO
THE EAST SUPPORTS THE FASTER MOVEMENT.
SHOULD THE GFS VERIFY THE CONVECTION LATE ON SATURDAY COULD BE
ROBUST. FRONT TIMING AT 00Z SUNDAY WITH PWATS >1.3...MUCAPE OVER
1500 AND FAIRLY STRONG 700 WAA/CAA COUPLET ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH GFS...BUT IS
MORE STABLE. ALSO...THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO MORE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM SO SURFACE SYSTEM IS STRETCHED AND NOT SO FOCUSED.
FOR SUNDAY THE MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...AGREE WITH CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR WRAP AROUND SHRA. IN THE W/NW
FLOW WEE WILL HAVE COOLER MID LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND SOME CAPE PAINTED. ECMWF SHOWS MORE QPF WITH THE UPPER
SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH...SUPPORTED BY THE DGEX AND GFS. THIS SLOWER
MOTION STILL MAKES SENSE IN LIGHT OF LINGERING BLOCK WELL TO THE
EAST.
AS A RESULT THE BELOW MEDIAN TEMPERATURE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE BLOCKING PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AS PART OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FRONT END OF A PATTERN CHANGE...OF SORTS.
MODELS HINT AT RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN EARNEST AHEAD OF EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING. THICKNESS SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
CIGS IFR OR LOW END MVFR THRU MID MORNING...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING
SOME THRU THE DAY WITH SOME VFR EITHER SCT OR BKN CU DVL REGION
THIS AFTN INTO GFK-FAR BY 00Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERLY AND LIGHT BY THIS EVE. TIMING OF CIG
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FORECAST WISE TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY DUE TO EXPIRE AT 12Z /7AM CDT/
AND WILL LET THAT GO. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z /10
AM CDT/ FOR A SMALL PART OF THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL ALLOW THAT TO EXPIRE AS WELL.
ONGOING FLOOD ADVISORY FOR WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RECENT RAINS WILL ONLY SERVE TO AGGRAVATE THAT SITUATION.
OBS AND MPE SHOW A BAND OF 1.5 TO LOCALLY 2.25 INCHES FROM NEAR
FOSSTON TO THIEF RIVER FALLS...WARREN MINNESOTA. ANOTHER POCKET OF
2+ INCHES CENTRAL GRAND FORKS COUNTY AND THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MINTO RISING BACK TO JUST AT FIS BUT
SUSPECT THIS IS TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF 1.5 TO 2+ INCHES IN THE HICKSON AREA.
THIS HAS CAUSED MINOR BUMPS IN THE MAINSTEM AT HICKSON AND FARGO.
OTHERWISE FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH FORECAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 CDT WED JUN 5 2013
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD ADVISORY OVER WARD...RENVILLE...
BOTTINEAU...MCHENRY...PARTS OF BURKE...AND PARTS OF MOUNTRAIL INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL EVALUATE EXTENDING THE REMAINING FLOOD
ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST HAS REMAIN LARGELY THE
SAME...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POP UP SHOWERS IN THE WEST WHERE
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST LARGELY OK. WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINING
COUNTIES WITHIN THE WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS THE EXITING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL EVIDENT AS
FAR WEST AS GLEN ULLIN. THE 02 THROUGH 06 UTC HRRR...ALONG
WITH OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS...HAS MAINTAINED THE IDEA THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
BASED ON THE REDUCED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEVIATES FROM THE HRRR THINKING AND
CLEARS OUT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FLOOD WATCHES...ADVISORIES...AND WARNINGS HAVE ALL BEEN
MAINTAINED SO THAT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CAN BE CONTACTED TO
ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF AREAL AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
MORNING.
PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT HAS ONLY MANAGED
TO FORM AT JAMESTOWN THUS FAR. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING HIGHER AT OTHER LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A FEW
TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES FOR
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
THE PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING EAST OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER
MY WEST AND NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME.
BOTH THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON NEAREST TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED GREAT LAKES OPEN WAVE. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AM
NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
WEAK S/WV RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN SINC FOR THE ONSET OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE GEM/NAM/AND ECMWF WITH A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE AND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK BY AROUND 6
HOURS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH AFTERNOON
POPS FAR WEST AND NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
BASED ON THE ADVERTISED LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL MAY
SEE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR WINDS.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES. A THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOW STRONG
AND WHERE DEPENDS ON HOW FAST A SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE WEST TO EAST SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 957 CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH DAKOTA IS KEEPING LOW
STRATUS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN BIS AND
JMS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 20Z. REMAINING SITES WILL STAY IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED.
POINTS ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO THE
INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE MONDAY. EARLIER
ISSUED NEW FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE DES LACS RIVER AT FOXHOLM WITH
THE STAGE RAPIDLY RISING TO MAJOR FLOOD. A CREST OF 20 FEET IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ISSUED A
NEW WARNING FOR MINOT 4NW...WITH THE FORECAST GOING FROM MINOR TO
MAJOR MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE ON THE DES LACS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...MM
HYDROLOGY...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
641 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST LARGELY OK. WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINING
COUNTIES WITHIN THE WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS THE EXITING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL EVIDENT AS
FAR WEST AS GLEN ULLIN. THE 02 THROUGH 06 UTC HRRR...ALONG
WITH OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS...HAS MAINTAINED THE IDEA THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
BASED ON THE REDUCED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEVIATES FROM THE HRRR THINKING AND
CLEARS OUT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FLOOD WATCHES...ADVISORIES...AND WARNINGS HAVE ALL BEEN
MAINTAINED SO THAT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CAN BE CONTACTED TO
ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF AREAL AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
MORNING.
PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT HAS ONLY MANAGED
TO FORM AT JAMESTOWN THUS FAR. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING HIGHER AT OTHER LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A FEW
TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES FOR
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
THE PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING EAST OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER
MY WEST AND NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME.
BOTH THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON NEAREST TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED GREAT LAKES OPEN WAVE. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AM
NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
WEAK S/WV RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN SINC FOR THE ONSET OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE GEM/NAM/AND ECMWF WITH A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE AND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK BY AROUND 6
HOURS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH AFTERNOON
POPS FAR WEST AND NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
BASED ON THE ADVERTISED LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL MAY
SEE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR WINDS.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES. A THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOW STRONG
AND WHERE DEPENDS ON HOW FAST A SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE WEST TO EAST SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
PERIODS OF LIFR FOG AT KJMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
16Z...THOUGH THERE COULD BE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS VERY CLOSE TO THE AERODROME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR/VFR AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT...WHILE IFR
LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD ON UNTIL AROUND 16Z AT KBIS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED.
POINTS ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO THE
INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE MONDAY. EARLIER
ISSUED NEW FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE DES LACS RIVER AT FOXHOLM WITH
THE STAGE RAPIDLY RISING TO MAJOR FLOOD. A CREST OF 20 FEET IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ISSUED A
NEW WARNING FOR MINOT 4NW...WITH THE FORECAST GOING FROM MINOR TO
MAJOR MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE ON THE DES LACS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...SCHECK/NH
HYDROLOGY...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED K-INDEX VALUE
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1015 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CLOSELY MONITORING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF NASHVILLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL. SO FAR NO WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED, BUT SEVERAL CELLS HAVE REACHED THE "STRONG"
DESCRIPTOR. LATEST HRRR CYCLE SHOWS INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
NASHVILLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE RAISED POP`S THERE TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A LIFTED INDEX OF
-5.5, CAPE OF 1157 J/KG, AND A K-INDEX 31, SO THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE DEFINITELY THERE NOW. YESTERDAY`S STRONG ELEVATED
INVERSION HAS MOSTLY ERODED, AS NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED.
LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC PAINTS THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCE OF THAT WILL BE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...
PER CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SFC OBS...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS W OF I-65 THRU THE MORNING HRS
ALONG WITH MENTIONING MOCLDY SKIES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS TOO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SHOWERS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE...AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT BNA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL CARRY A TEMPO PERIOD FOR TSRA
AT CSV THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS TODAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS MID STATE DURING
THE MORNING HRS TODAY...ANY CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SVR TSTM POTENTIAL
TODAY THRU FRI...AND TEMPS(ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK).
WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SFC OBS...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THRU PRESS TIME FOR FINAL DECISION...AS LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...AND AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THAT SOME OF THESE MAY WORK INTO AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE THIS MORNING PER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE INFLUENCES...AND
DESPITE NOT HAVING THE BEGINNING EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING UNTIL
THE MID MORNING HRS...ISO SHWRS/TSTMS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE MID
STATE THRU THE MORNING HRS TOO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY GOING CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING FROM TODAY THRU THE DAY ON FRI. EXPECT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE POTENTIAL AND THE AFFECTS OF ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING
INFLUENCES...MOST ENHANCED DUE TO ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES PLATEAU
REGION...TO RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. WILL GO CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING WITH HIGHEST SCT POPS PLATEAU TO LESSER CHANCES TO THE W.
WOULD GENERALLY BE SPLITTING HAIRS IN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EURO/GFS/NAM MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL JUST GO CLOSE TO GFS MOS
VALUES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...LOWER 80S ACROSS PLATEAU
REGION.
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE AS A
SFC FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE MID STATE ALONG WITH POSSIBLY OTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT AND INTO THU. BELIEVE
SHWRS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN NATURE BY LATE TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST
ISO TSTMS TOWARD THE MORNING HRS...WITH NUMEROUS...TO CATEGORICAL
PLATEAU WHERE ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN COME INTO
PLAY...SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU. EXPECT THE SFC FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE MID STATE THU NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH E OF THE MID
STATE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY ON FRI...WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING INFLUENCES PLAYING A ROLE AGAIN IN USHERING POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION TOO...THUS SUPPORTING CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. AS FOR TEMPS....WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN EURO/GFS/NAM VALUES EXPECT FOR ON
THU...WHERE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT TOO WARM OF TEMPS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED...AND THUS IN THIS
CASE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD EURO/NAM VALUES.
AS FOR TODAY THRU FRI...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE THE MID STATE WITHIN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA. WITH EVERYTHING CONSIDERED...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ORGANIZED SVR TSTM POTENTIAL...BUT BELIEVE THAT
STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE BEING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TOTAL GRIDDED QPF
VALUES FROM TODAY THRU FRI SHOW GENERALLY THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR FRI NIGHT THRU THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR THE
CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DECREASE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE AS THE NIGHT TIME HOURS PROGRESS...LEADING TO BUILDING SFC
RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL THUS
KEEP MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY ON SAT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS PER DIURNAL BASED LIFTING MECHANISMS PLATEAU...AND
CONTINUE THIS TREND ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS FOR LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER AS A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN FLOW ALOFT ALONG
WITH SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE OR JUST
SLIGHTLY N OF THIS...TO AID IN MAINLY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS NRN PORTIONS
TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS SRN PORTIONS THRU THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THRU
THE WEEKEND. AS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST GFS RUN
CONTINUING THE TREND OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF TRYING TO BUILD IN A
SUMMER TYPE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE MID STATE...WHERE THE LATEST
EURO AND DGEX SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS RIDGING FURTHER W. WILL THUS LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO TEMPS THRU THIS TIME PERIOD AND
KEEP THOSE 90-DEG DAYS AGAIN AT BAY FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER TOO.
31
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
946 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A VORT MAX OVER WESTERN KY WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE A
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN AL/GA WILL BE LIFTING NORTH.
CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE SE
MARGINS OF THE VORT MAX. THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THESE STORMS IS
VERY SLOW. EXPECT THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE MAINLY IN OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION. RUC SOUNDINGS NEAR
TRI APPEAR MORE STABLE THAN NEAR CHA...SO BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS LOW AS SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUT MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG COULD LEAD TO A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT...MAINLY SOUTH
AND WEST.
THE UPDATE WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/SKY/TEMP GRIDS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
612 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
WEAK TO MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
MEDFORD WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA. THIS LINE IS A AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE...SO ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE HOURLY POP AND GRIDS TO
HANDLE THIS. BEHIND THIS BAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE
LOWERED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE MODELS
TRYING TO GENERATE CAPE IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FOR THIS MORNING...WATCHING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS LIFT HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA ALREADY.
THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM FARGO NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE NAM...RAP...AND GFS SHOW THAT
MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES CLIMB TO
AROUND 8.5 C/KM AND SURFACE BASE CAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR AIR
FUNNELS AND NONSUPERCELL TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM FARGO TO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE TWIN
CITIES.
FOR TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A COLD
POCKET OF AIR LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL IN SOME SOME
INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA /ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENING/ FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO COME TO A CONSENSUS THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL EAST THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
/MORE ON THIS THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION/. THE
05.00Z GFS IS CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH A STRONG CAP
LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...ML CAPES ARE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE
3000 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE ON TUESDAY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR CLIMBS ABOVE
40 KNOTS WHICH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...THERE
WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION WITH EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...THE 0-1 KM
HELICITY CLIMBS INTO THE 200 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING
EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FOR
THE GREATEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
THIS WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECASTS
AREA. IT WOULD IMPLY THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. SINCE THE THE ECMWF USUALLY DOES THE BEST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND NEITHER MODEL HAS BEEN THAT CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST WEEK...WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LINE OF SHOWERS FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
IS MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
KLSE BY 13Z. BEHIND THE SHOWERS...BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
GO DOWN TO MVFR AS THE RAIN HELPS TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. ONCE THE
CEILINGS GO DOWN...NOT EXPECTING THESE TO IMPROVE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLSE SHOULD HOPEFULLY
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT KRST WILL
HAVE SOME FOG AND A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD
SEE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR KBWP MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
05.06Z NAM SHOWS UP TO 500 J/KG OF ML CAPE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REGENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. NOT SURE HOW WIDE SPREAD THE SHOWERS WILL BE SO WILL
SHOW CATEGORICAL SHOWERS AT BOTH SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH NO
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTION TO THE VISIBILITY. CONFIDENCE ON THE
THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
END THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE MOVES BY. WITH ALL THE RECENT
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE FOG FORM AT
BOTH SITES WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. CONCERNED THAT KRST COULD GO
DOWN TO IFR BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT FOR NOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THIS MORNING AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE FELL TO ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 9 FEET
AROUND 7 PM ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IT CONTINUED TO FALL OVERNIGHT.
WITH ITS LATEST STAGE AROUND 8.6 FEET...WILL BE DROPPING THIS
FLOOD WARNING SHORTLY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 05.00Z GFS BRINGS A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
FROM 1.5 INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING
INTO THE THE REGION...CONCERNED THAT THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME
RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS
FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...ITS FLOODING
THREAT WOULD EXIST FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO THE BOOT HEAL OF MISSOURI. SINCE THE ECMWF TYPICALLY VERIFIES
THE BEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENCY
ISSUES DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL NOT ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
/ESF/ AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
554 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
WEAK TO MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
MEDFORD WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA. THIS LINE IS A AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE...SO ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE HOURLY POP AND GRIDS TO
HANDLE THIS. BEHIND THIS BAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE
LOWERED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE MODELS
TRYING TO GENERATE CAPE IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FOR THIS MORNING...WATCHING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS LIFT HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA ALREADY.
THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM FARGO NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE NAM...RAP...AND GFS SHOW THAT
MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES CLIMB TO
AROUND 8.5 C/KM AND SURFACE BASE CAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR AIR
FUNNELS AND NONSUPERCELL TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM FARGO TO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE TWIN
CITIES.
FOR TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A COLD
POCKET OF AIR LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL IN SOME SOME
INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA /ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENING/ FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO COME TO A CONSENSUS THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL EAST THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
/MORE ON THIS THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION/. THE
05.00Z GFS IS CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH A STRONG CAP
LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...ML CAPES ARE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE
3000 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE ON TUESDAY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR CLIMBS ABOVE
40 KNOTS WHICH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...THERE
WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION WITH EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...THE 0-1 KM
HELICITY CLIMBS INTO THE 200 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING
EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FOR
THE GREATEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
THIS WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECASTS
AREA. IT WOULD IMPLY THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. SINCE THE THE ECMWF USUALLY DOES THE BEST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND NEITHER MODEL HAS BEEN THAT CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST WEEK...WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
HELP RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LIFT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER MVFR BY SUNRISE AS THE
SHRA MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE. VSBY SHOULD REMAIN MVFR IN THE RAIN.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AS ONE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST IN THE
MORNING AND SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD...IT APPEARS SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND THU
MORNING...BUT DETAILS ON THE EXTENT AND VSBY RESTRICTION ARE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CLEARING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THIS MORNING AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE FELL TO ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 9 FEET
AROUND 7 PM ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IT CONTINUED TO FALL OVERNIGHT.
WITH ITS LATEST STAGE AROUND 8.6 FEET...WILL BE DROPPING THIS
FLOOD WARNING SHORTLY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 05.00Z GFS BRINGS A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
FROM 1.5 INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING
INTO THE THE REGION...CONCERNED THAT THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME
RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. MEANWHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS THIS
FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...ITS FLOODING
THREAT WOULD EXIST FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO THE BOOT HEAL OF MISSOURI. SINCE THE ECMWF TYPICALLY VERIFIES
THE BEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENCY
ISSUES DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL NOT ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
/ESF/ AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES...MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND TO REFLECT SOLID OVC CONDITIONS
FOR THE PLAINS. STILL EXPECTING SOME TS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SRN MTS...MOVING E TO THE SE PLAINS BY EARLY EVE. A
COUPLE OF THESE CELLS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD SHIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
...COOL AND CLOUDY ACROSS THE EAST...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DRAG ACROSS NORTHEAST CO THIS MORNING...WITH
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/PV LOBE NEARING THE 4 CORNERS REGION MOVING
ACROSS NRN NM TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER ASSOC WITH LOW LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN BACA
COUNTY...PRODUCING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. BUT THIS AXIS SHOULD
BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
FOR TODAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE CO IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. INSTEAD...A SPOTTY LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SOUTH
ALONG/BEHIND THE SECONDARY PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RUC13 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE PLAIN TODAY...WITH DEW POINT GRADIENT LYING UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WITH AFTN HEATING AND SOME
INCOMING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY STABLE ACROSS THE PLAINS THOUGH
DEEPLY SATURATED...SO THINK MAJORITY OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SOME SHOWERS. WITH AFTN HEATING...THE RATON MESA REGION
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CAPE VALUES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY...AROUND 20-30 KTS...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE PULSEY
IN NATURE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CORES...THOUGH SUSPECT IT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH IN
DIAMETER...THUS THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT. FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THIS REGION WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN CLOSER TO
PROXIMITY TO ENERGY FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LACK OF FORCING
TO KEEP IT GOING. LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN STRONG ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S)
IN SPITE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT. MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. FOR NOW
THOUGH...UPSLOPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THINK THIS WILL BE MORE
STRATUS THAN A FOG EVENT. BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL MESSAGE WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
TIMES.
LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ETC. INDICATE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEVADA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO
NEW MEXICO BY LATER SUNDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT THAT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK(WHEN COMPARED TO TODAYS TEMPERATURES) AS
PROJECTED I-25 CORRIDOR 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AFTERNOON
READINGS AROUND 7C TODAY TO AROUND 20C OR HIGHER FROM SUNDAY INTO AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
ALSO...EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...WHERE
SOME GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS MAY DEVELOP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THEN BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS(PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224) ARE
PROJECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. LATEST FUELS PAGE STILL INDICATES THAT FUELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THIS REGION UNTIL THE FUELS
STATUS CHANGES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT ON TUESDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES START RUNNING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED
100F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CURRENT IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR
TS THIS AFTERNOON AT KALS...AND FG CHANCES TOMORROW MORNING.
AT KCOS AND KPUB...LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CIGS AT KPUB SHOULD COME UP A BIT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT
MVFR LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH EVE. A BETTER CHANCE AT KCOS FOR
CIGS TO LIFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT MVFR CIGS STILL A
POSSIBILITY.
AT KALS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 H. COULD SEE SOME
SCT TS DEVELOP OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AFTER 21Z...BUT THESE STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVE.
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FOR FG EARLY THU MORNING. FG COULD OCCUR
AT KPUB AND KCOS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS HIGHEST AT KCOS.
WILL STILL LIKELY SEE LOW CIGS AT KPUB. CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY
14-16Z THU MORNING. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1048 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES...MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND TO REFLECT SOLID OVC CONDITIONS
FOR THE PLAINS. STILL EXPECTING SOME TS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SRN MTS...MOVING E TO THE SE PLAINS BY EARLY EVE. A
COUPLE OF THESE CELLS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD SHIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
...COOL AND CLOUDY ACROSS THE EAST...SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DRAG ACROSS NORTHEAST CO THIS MORNING...WITH
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/PV LOBE NEARING THE 4 CORNERS REGION MOVING
ACROSS NRN NM TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER ASSOC WITH LOW LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN BACA
COUNTY...PRODUCING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. BUT THIS AXIS SHOULD
BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
FOR TODAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE CO IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. INSTEAD...A SPOTTY LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SOUTH
ALONG/BEHIND THE SECONDARY PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RUC13 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE PLAIN TODAY...WITH DEW POINT GRADIENT LYING UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WITH AFTN HEATING AND SOME
INCOMING FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY STABLE ACROSS THE PLAINS THOUGH
DEEPLY SATURATED...SO THINK MAJORITY OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SOME SHOWERS. WITH AFTN HEATING...THE RATON MESA REGION
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CAPE VALUES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY...AROUND 20-30 KTS...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE PULSEY
IN NATURE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CORES...THOUGH SUSPECT IT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH IN
DIAMETER...THUS THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT. FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THIS REGION WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN CLOSER TO
PROXIMITY TO ENERGY FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LACK OF FORCING
TO KEEP IT GOING. LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN STRONG ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S)
IN SPITE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT. MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. FOR NOW
THOUGH...UPSLOPE LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...AND THINK THIS WILL BE MORE
STRATUS THAN A FOG EVENT. BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL MESSAGE WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
TIMES.
LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ETC. INDICATE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEVADA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO
NEW MEXICO BY LATER SUNDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY.
AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT THAT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK(WHEN COMPARED TO TODAYS TEMPERATURES) AS
PROJECTED I-25 CORRIDOR 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AFTERNOON
READINGS AROUND 7C TODAY TO AROUND 20C OR HIGHER FROM SUNDAY INTO AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
ALSO...EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...WHERE
SOME GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS MAY DEVELOP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THEN BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS(PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224) ARE
PROJECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. LATEST FUELS PAGE STILL INDICATES THAT FUELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THIS REGION UNTIL THE FUELS
STATUS CHANGES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT ON TUESDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR BELOW EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES START RUNNING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED
100F.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013
MVFR TO POCKETS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. KPUB WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR TO MVFR
CATEGORY...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KCOS. THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME -SHRA AFFECTING BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN EITHER TAF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MVFR TO VFR CIGS TO PERSIST ALL DAY...WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY FOR KCOS TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS FOR KPUB. KALS WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...THEN VFR CIGS WITH -TSRA
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE VALLEY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. THESE WILL BE STRONGER AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION FLARED UP JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER LAST NIGHT AND THIS HAS PRODUCED A MASSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR WATERS WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE BROAD
CIRCULATION LOCATION BUT DIFFER WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSEST
ALIGNMENT AND TAKE IT TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS PLACES SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A
CONTINUED FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WITH A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW
TODAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REAL
DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER RESTRICTING THE INSTABILITY
WHICH IS CURRENTLY LACKING. THIS ALSO IS REFLECTED IN THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE LAKE REGION BUT
NOTHING MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT. IN ADDITION, IT NOW APPEARS THAT
THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE SLIM
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO NEAR THE WEST COAST AND WATERSPOUTS OVER
THE GULF WATERS MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY. THIS
REALLY IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN FORM
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. IN ADDITION, AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH
THE SURFACE WIND WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY. THE GULF TIDES ARE
RUNNING AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL SO THIS COMBINED WITH THE
ONSHORE WIND, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY NEAR EVERGLADES CITY, MARCO ISLAND AND THE COASTAL
AREAS OF NAPLES.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES,
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT ALLOWING THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH SOME COOLING AT 500 MB BY ONE DEGREE CELSIUS. THE AFFECTS
WILL MAINLY BE MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH
BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE TRAILING TO ITS SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS WILL REVERT THE PATTERN BACK TO A EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE
EAST AND THEN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST AT BEST THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND WHAT IMPACTS ON SOUTH
FLORIDA IT WILL HAVE. CURRENTLY, THOUGHTS ARE TO BACK OFF ON THE
FORECAST RAIN AND WIND AMOUNTS. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH
MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS,NOW TAKING THE LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. THIS WOULD WIND DOWN PRECIPITATION
MUCH EARLIER FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES. REFLECTED THIS BY ONLY A
VCSH FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, INSTEAD OF TAKING IT OUT ENTIRELY.
THIS IS AGAIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR, WITH BRIEF MVFR AND MAYBE SOME
IFR WITH ANY MODERATE SHOWERS DUE TO LOWER CIGS MOST LIKELY.
WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTH. THEY MAY PICK UP
TOMORROW TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO
STRENGTHEN.
&&
.MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
WIND INCREASING TO SCA CRITERIA ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL SCEC ALL OTHER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING EAST AND DIMINISHING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 83 76 83 / 50 60 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 85 78 86 / 40 60 50 60
MIAMI 76 85 77 84 / 40 60 50 60
NAPLES 73 84 76 84 / 70 70 50 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GULF WATERS
FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED.
WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE IL RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY LATE WHILE KEEPING
EASTERN IL DRY. SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
EASTERN IL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR TODAY. SE WINDS STAYING
UNDER 10 MPH.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1245 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THU AND
USED VCSH TO ADDRESS THIS SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASSES NORTH AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
NEXT 24 HOURS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. RADAR
MOSIAC LOOP SHOWS MOST OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PASSING NROTH OF GALESBURG SO FAR TODAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 4-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
SUNSET AND WILL LIKELY APPEAR AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH
MVFR CEILINGS STAYING NW OF PIA/IL RIVER ON THU MORNING. ALSO HAVE
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT FOG/HAZE OF 4-5 MILES FROM 09Z-14Z
AS IT OCCURRED IN SPI EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F WITH LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT ESE WINDS TO
EVEN VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON TO TURN MORE NE DURING
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING AND STAY UNDER 10 KTS.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
ILLINOIS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...ALTHOUGH THE AIR BELOW
700 MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY PER RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR GALESBURG
AND MOLINE...SO AM NOT BANKING ON THESE SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWEST CWA AT THE MOMENT. A LARGE MCS COVERED MUCH OF KANSAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES NOT IN ANY BIG HURRY TO
LEAVE...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN OUR AREA A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. HAVE LIMITED MOST POPS TO AREAS WEST OF I-55...AND EVEN
THEN IT WOULD BE MORE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HAVE
MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST TOWARD I-57 THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...LINKING UP WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHEARS OUT...FOCUS
WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
BETWEEN SHOULD MOVE INTO ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESSENING
SUPPORT. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN MCS LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
WRF MODEL.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE FRONT STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...AND LIMITED THUNDER
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AS THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS
FURTHER. MAIN EMPHASIS WILL COME WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH THAT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT
HAS SHIFTED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH FROM THE 12Z RUN. THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MORE OF A THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR OUR AREA...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE MIDWEST IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. POTENTIAL RING
OF FIRE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE LIKELY TRACK. THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH AND HAS OUR AREA MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED...WHILE
THE ECMWF FAVORS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW...
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
136 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
SEVERAL WEAK...BUT MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE
BEST CHACNES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY 12Z THURS MODELS AGREE THAT POSITIVELY TILTED ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
REMNANTS OF SFC ENERGY WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS ILLINOIS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL DAYS LACK OF MSTR
ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
00Z RUN OF SEVERAL HI RES MODELS NOT PAINTING A GOOD PICTURE WITH
DRY LOW LEVEL SOUNDING...AS E/NE FLOW KEEPS MSTR FROM ADVECTING
IN. NAM/GFS/SREF/LOCAL WRF ALL KEEP THINGS PRETTY DRY TONIGHT.
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE TRIED TO TAKE COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS
OK/KS AND MOVE ENE WITH TIME. CORFIDI VECTORS AND LOCATION OF
DEEPEST MSTR WOULD INDICATE MORE OF A E OR SE TREND FOR CONVECTION
LEADING TO NO LIKELY CONTRIBUTION FROM THE COMPLEX FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. OTHER LIGHTER SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS IOWA INTO PORTIONS
OF WISCONSIN. THESE WERE STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...HAVE
LOWERED POPS BY AT LEAST 10 PERCENT...KEEPING EAST AREAS DRY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT AND TRENDS POPS TO LOW END CHC IN THE WEST.
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPR
50S AS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER DECK DOES INCREASE AND THICKEN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF WEAKENING APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY WIND LOOKS TO INHIBIT EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
PCPN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS BUT TREND HAS
CERTAINLY BEEN SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH LESS QPF. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. TEMPS
REMAIN COOL FOR EARLY JUNE IN LOW TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE ACROSS AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS IN MID
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL TRENDS WITH PCPN IN THE
NEAR TERM COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM ALSO
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT MAIN ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH. DECENT
PV ANOMALY SO MODEL POPS RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE A TENDENCY TO MAKE MANY SHORT WAVES IMPRESSIVE AT THIS RANGE.
SIDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST IN DAY 7 WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING POSSIBLE WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT VERSUS HIGH PRES RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRDLY INCREASE AS UPR LEVEL
LOW OVER MN MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND SFC LOW DVLPS OVER THE OH VALLEY
IN RESPONSE TO MCV MOVG EAST FROM MO. FEW -SHRA PSBL ACROSS NRN
INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE WEST AND
EAST OF THE AREA SO FOR NOW CONTD WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED IN TAFS
AND JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR CEILINGS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1233 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
PRECIP TRENDS REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. CURRENT RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS PATCHY MAINLY KINEMATIC FORCING FROM ERN DAKOTAS
UPPER LOW SWD INTO IA. RAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CAPES A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH RESULTING IN SMALL UNFOCUSED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CYCLING UP AND DOWN AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST IN
THE MEAN FLOW. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS SCATTERED PRECIP
EVOLVES LATER IN THE DAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND
FORCING GRADUALLY EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIP REMAINING SE. HOWEVER SEVERAL HIGHER RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING RECENT HRRR...SPC SSEO ENSEMBLES AND 00Z
HIRES WRF RUNS ALL SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND FROM DEVELOPING
NRN KS MCV NEWD INTO IA AHEAD OF 1-3KM TROUGH. FEEL THIS CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED SO HAVE KEPT SCT WORDING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FAR
WEST AS I35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IN SPOTS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW WITH MLCAPES ONLY INCREASING TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WEAK NOW DUE TO ELEVATED NATURE
OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY HIGH...BY
THE TIME THE CONVECTION WOULD POTENTIALLY BECOME ROOTED LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON THOSE HIGHER VALUES SHOULD HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST WITH
OVERALL SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED. ONE
CONCERN WOULD BE BRIEF NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES HOWEVER.
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SHALLOW MIXING AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED 0-3KM
CAPES. NST PARAMETER DOES RESPOND SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE DISORGANIZED SURFACE WIND FIELD AND
INSUFFICIENT ASSOCIATED VORTICITY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THIS WORDING INTO THE HWO...BUT SOMETHING TO
BE WATCHED DURING HEATING. PROBABLY PLENTY OF DRIFTING SCUD AT A
MINIMUM.
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM SW INTO N
CENTRAL IA AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
IT OVER PARTS OF NW IA. VISIBILITIES HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS OBS...BUT STILL MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG FOR A FEW HOURS
THERE. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY CONFIDENCE TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM MOS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS WERE FOCUSED ON THURSDAY MAX TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES...THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD A
NAM12/SREF AND THE HIRES-ARW AND NMM WRF THROUGH
THURSDAY...NAM/SREF FOR FRIDAY...THEN GFS/ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND TAKES
THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY MOISTURE LOOKS TO SET UP
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT DAY OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK VORT MAX WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING
AND MOISTURE CUTS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GFS DEPICTING STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
ENTERING WESTERN IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES NOT
IMPRESSIVE RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROUGH MOVE
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING CENTRAL IOWA WITH WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DECENT MIXING BY THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MAY
HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP EVEN FURTHER IF TREND CONTINUES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE. 850MB TEMPS BACK TO +16C BY MONDAY AND
EVEN WARMER BY TUESDAY AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING KALO/KOTM AT TIMES...AND LOW
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL STEADILY DEPART TO THE EAST AS WELL. HAVE TAKEN
BEST GUESS AT TIMING THE END OF THESE CIGS...OR THEIR RISE TO
VFR...IN THE 18Z TAFS. OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL END BUT STRATUS/BR
WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY GENERATED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WET
GROUND...AND A SURFACE INVERSION STRENGTHENING PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE TRENDED THE TAFS TOWARD LOWERING VSBYS/CIGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE TAKEN LOWER IN SUBSEQUENT
TAF ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY AT KMCW/KALO/KOTM. CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN IMPROVE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
322 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MCV HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
TAKING THE LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH
AS WELL AND OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AT 19Z. THE H5 UPPER TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DEPICTED OVER WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN THE PROFILER NETWORK.
SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
HRRR AS WELL AS THE RAP AND NAM BRING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING BY 04Z. SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
LOWS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. THURSDAYS HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDS.
CALM AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.
THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT/RISK FOR SEVERE WX APPEARS TO BE ON SAT- SAT
NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO APPROACH LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 850MB ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND RACE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE AREA
LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON SUN...AND A SFC BOUNDARY
COULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER LACK OF UPPER
FORCING AND RISING HTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP CHCS TO SCT AND
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST.
BY MON AND NEXT TUES...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FLAT
RIDGE WITH 588-594 500MB HTS SO LOOK FOR HOTTER WX. THERE WILL BE
A SFC BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB INTO NW MO. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE ANYWHERE SOUTHWEST OF THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CAPPED. 850MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST NEAR
90 IF NOT WARMER SO WILL GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDS AND THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHC FOR STORMS BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z-23Z THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF VFR DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER 23Z. WINDS NORTH NEAR 10 KTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10 KTS BY 02Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...CO
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
158 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THUNDERSTORM ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING AT THE
LATEST TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING GOOD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AT 16Z...IT EXTENDED FROM ANTHONY TO
CHANUTE. THE 13Z HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST BORDER OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA MOVING
DOWN AND FURTHER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THAT FAR OFF GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AREA. THAT
SAID...THINK THESE WILL BE DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY BEHIND THE FRONT OR SLOWLY RISING
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS BOTH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...CLOUD...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROF PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RENEWED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TRENDS IS LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING
PROGGED OVER THE FRONT.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WAS MOVIGN ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO MISSOURI AS OF 19Z. VFR CLOUDS HAVE
BEENTHE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY...WITH MANY CEILINGS BEING 800 TO
1200 FEET.
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CEILING HEIGHTS OVER TIME. THIS VALIDATES THE
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION FORECASTS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
12Z NAM-WRF. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASING CEILINGS...WITH VFR
PREVAILING AFTER 06/02Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH A PREVAILING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 08 KNOTS BY 06/12Z.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN IS WHETHER FOG WILL OCCUR IN KCNU. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO FAVOR FOG USING THE CROSS OVER TECHNIQUE...HOWEVER
THAT CAN FAIL WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS...THINKING THAT STRATUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SINCE WE
ARE UNSURE WHICH WILL OCCUR...HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH 5SM BR
FOR KCNU FROM 08Z-12Z.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 55 76 56 79 / 20 10 0 10
HUTCHINSON 53 75 55 79 / 20 10 0 10
NEWTON 54 75 54 78 / 20 10 0 10
ELDORADO 54 75 54 77 / 20 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 77 56 79 / 30 10 0 10
RUSSELL 50 74 53 80 / 30 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 51 74 53 80 / 20 0 0 10
SALINA 52 75 56 79 / 30 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 53 75 55 79 / 20 10 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 58 77 56 78 / 30 10 0 0
CHANUTE 56 75 54 77 / 30 10 0 0
IOLA 56 75 54 76 / 30 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 57 76 55 77 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO HONE IN ON THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SPREADING NORTHEAST IN OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DID ALSO MATCH UP THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS FOR T/TD AND SKY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A NEW ZFP WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE INBOUND
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WARM AND MOIST AIR THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
TODAY. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY
AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND NOON AND INCREASING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARLIEST IN THE SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS
ON AN OUTFLOW OR AS A CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. ADDITIONAL...MORE AIR MASS STYLE CONVECTION...LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PEAK HEATING. EXPECT THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA WITH TIME. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND ADJUST THEIR TIMING INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATED SET OF
ZONES AND NEW HWO HAS BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE ACTIVITY HAS FIRED IN AN AREA
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 63 OR HIGHER. THIS MAY BE THE MAGIC
NUMBER WE ARE LOOKING FOR AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES TODAY. AREAS IN
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR GETTING DEWPOINTS IN
THIS BALL PARK...SO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE SOUTH. THINGS ARE STARTING TO LOOK A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE FURTHER NORTH AS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER
40S. A NEARLY 15 POINT SWING IN DEWPOINTS WILL BE HARD TO MANAGE
DURING THE DAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THAT THREAT WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. FOR NOW...WILL ROLL WITH THE POPS WE HAVE AND GO FROM
THERE. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW STARTING TO DEPART TO OUR EAST AND HAS KEPT
OUR WEATHER VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL DEPART AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AFTER
DAYBREAK. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...MODELS SEEM TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY. THIS MAY KEEP POTENTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE MORE LIMITED.
PRESENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS
WAVE. WITH INSTABILITY IN QUESTION TODAY...KEPT POPS AT 40 OR BELOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STORMS
MAY NOT FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING AS IT TAKES MOST OF THE DAY FOR SFC MOISTURE TO RECOVER. BASE
ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY LOOKING
MORE SPORADIC TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY INSTABILITY
WHICH DEVELOPS.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CERTAINLY LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN
24 HOURS AGO...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN INSTABILITY AND
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF DECENT RAINFALL
LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS THU NITE WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST. DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A
TROPICAL LOW INTO GA THAT SHOWS UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
GFS ONLY HINTS AT A MINOR VORTICITY DISTURBANCE IN THIS AREA. IN ANY
CASE THE LONG WAVE TROF IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES PASS THRU BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY MON NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
TROF TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOLDS MORE RAIN INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THAN THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONGER TROPICAL LOW OVER NRN FLA WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER LOW AND PLACES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU NIGHT.
THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY END SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND THE TROPICAL LOW IS SWEPT OFF THE NEW ENG COAST.
THE GOOD WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST TOO LONG AS THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
ERN KY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THRU SRN CANADA AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE LOWER TENN VALLEY. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER BIT OF DRY WEATHER FOR WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM A COOL MID
70S ON FRI TO A WARM LOWER 80S FOR SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FIRST BATCH OF THESE ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY ATTM WITH CIGS AND VIS BRIEFLY DROPPING
TO IFR/MVFR AS THE STORMS PASS. AS THIS FIRST SURGE DIES DOWN LATER
THIS EVENING...THE ADDED MOISTURE AND SOME BREAKS/THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME OCCASIONAL VIS REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT
FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1250 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO HONE IN ON THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SPREADING NORTHEAST IN OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DID ALSO MATCH UP THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS FOR T/TD AND SKY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A NEW ZFP WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE INBOUND
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WARM AND MOIST AIR THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
TODAY. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY
AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND NOON AND INCREASING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARLIEST IN THE SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS
ON AN OUTFLOW OR AS A CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. ADDITIONAL...MORE AIR MASS STYLE CONVECTION...LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PEAK HEATING. EXPECT THE
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA WITH TIME. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND ADJUST THEIR TIMING INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATED SET OF
ZONES AND NEW HWO HAS BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE ACTIVITY HAS FIRED IN AN AREA
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 63 OR HIGHER. THIS MAY BE THE MAGIC
NUMBER WE ARE LOOKING FOR AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES TODAY. AREAS IN
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR GETTING DEWPOINTS IN
THIS BALL PARK...SO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE SOUTH. THINGS ARE STARTING TO LOOK A BIT MORE
QUESTIONABLE FURTHER NORTH AS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER
40S. A NEARLY 15 POINT SWING IN DEWPOINTS WILL BE HARD TO MANAGE
DURING THE DAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THAT THREAT WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. FOR NOW...WILL ROLL WITH THE POPS WE HAVE AND GO FROM
THERE. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW STARTING TO DEPART TO OUR EAST AND HAS KEPT
OUR WEATHER VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL DEPART AS A MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AFTER
DAYBREAK. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...MODELS SEEM TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY. THIS MAY KEEP POTENTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE MORE LIMITED.
PRESENTLY...NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS
WAVE. WITH INSTABILITY IN QUESTION TODAY...KEPT POPS AT 40 OR BELOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST STORMS
MAY NOT FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING AS IT TAKES MOST OF THE DAY FOR SFC MOISTURE TO RECOVER. BASE
ON THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY LOOKING
MORE SPORADIC TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY INSTABILITY
WHICH DEVELOPS.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CERTAINLY LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN
24 HOURS AGO...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN INSTABILITY AND
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF DECENT RAINFALL
LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE TODAY AS PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE LONG TERM STARTS THU NITE WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE IN THE WEST. DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A
TROPICAL LOW INTO GA THAT SHOWS UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
GFS ONLY HINTS AT A MINOR VORTICITY DISTURBANCE IN THIS AREA. IN ANY
CASE THE LONG WAVE TROF IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES PASS THRU BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY MON NIGHT AND PUSHES THE
TROF TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOLDS MORE RAIN INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THAN THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONGER TROPICAL LOW OVER NRN FLA WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MUCH WEAKER LOW AND PLACES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THU NIGHT.
THE RAIN SHOULD FINALLY END SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND THE TROPICAL LOW IS SWEPT OFF THE NEW ENG COAST.
THE GOOD WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST TOO LONG AS THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DROPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
ERN KY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THRU SRN CANADA AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE LOWER TENN VALLEY. LOOK
FOR ANOTHER BIT OF DRY WEATHER FOR WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM A COOL MID
70S ON FRI TO A WARM LOWER 80S FOR SUN THRU TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAS TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY. AFTER 18Z...SOME
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AND HANDLED THIS WITH VCTS AT THIS
POINT. WHERE THIS OCCURRED VIS AND OR CIGS MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS IFR
FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1255 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
A WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN WAS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER LOW
WAS MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPS AS WELL. WE HAVE A DIMINISHING
TREND BY LATE AFTERNOON IN RAIN COVERAGE...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE CHANCES SOME INTO EARLY
EVENING.
FOG HAS ALSO BEEN AN ISSUE TODAY AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
KCOQ DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE ALL DAY...AND KDLH HAS BEEN WAFFLING
BETWEEN A QUARTER MILE AND A MILE. THE HRRR FORECASTS VSYBS TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWS THEM DIMINISHING AGAIN BY
06Z. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND WE EXPECT FOG
TO PERSIST. HOW DENSE IS THE QUESTION...AND WE MAY HAVE TO HOIST A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS/SOUTHERN SAINT LOUIS/CARLTON
COUNTIES TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHSHORE MAY ALSO SEE DENSE
FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KINL...LOCATED IN A RELATIVELY DRIER FLOW OF
LOW LVL AIR...ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR AND BELOW
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN POOR OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS IN SFC LAYER
ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CEILINGS AND BR/FG. SREF PROBABILITY
FCST OF IFR AND LOWER IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS SRN PART OF CWA
OVERNIGHT SO CONFIDENCE HIGHER AT KBRD/KDLH/KHYR. OVERALL BEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR AT KINL WITH POSSIBILITY FOR OPTIMISTIC
AMENDMENTS AT KHIB LATER THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AT 330 AM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...ON THEIR WAY EASTWARD TO THE
TWIN PORTS AND MUCH OF NW WI. MUCH OF THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
HAS SEEN ONE HALF INCH TO AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. LIGHTNING STILL SHOWING UP IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA MOVING INTO EC MN.
THE 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THE FOCUS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND
THEN SHIFT TO A WEST TO EAST OR NW/SE ORIENTED BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. A STRONG VORT MAX ALONG WITH STRONG DEFORMATION AND AN
H3 JET STREAK WILL ADD TO THE FORCING TODAY.
FOR TODAY...WILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE AND THE BORDER REGION. COULD SEE SOME 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AREAS. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE HELD IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION.
THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT
CONCERNING CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS.
LONG TERM....THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND COULD BE WET AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS BY THE
MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...AND EITHER THE LOW OR ITS TROUGH
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE SOME CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHICH SCENARIO HAPPENS...BUT FOR
EITHER SCENARIO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE NORTHLAND WILL GET
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE MIGHT MOVE INTO
THE NORTHLAND IN THE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 42 57 42 65 / 50 40 10 0
INL 38 66 43 70 / 10 30 10 0
BRD 47 63 44 70 / 20 20 10 0
HYR 47 62 43 71 / 60 30 10 10
ASX 42 55 40 65 / 70 40 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>146.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
AVIATION.....CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1121 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NECESSARY. PER 12Z JAN RAOB...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED AS
WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL YIELD SFC-BASED CAPE APPROACHING 4000
J/KG WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE ~1200 J/KG...ALL MAKING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS IN THE WEAKLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
PRIMARY QUESTIONS SURROUND FOCUSING/LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THREE SUCH AREAS ARE ON THE FRINGES OF THE ARKLAMISS...A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NRN MS/NRN
AL...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER AR AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE OVER SE LA/SRN MS ASSOC WITH
EASTERLY FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM
THESE SOURCES MAY CAUSE RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WILL EXPAND THE STRONG SVR WEATHER RISK AREA SOME.
/EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT WHERE
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LASTING A COUPLE HOURS IN THOSE AREAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE NW
WHERE A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. /GRG/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TRIED TO USE A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT TODAY. TWEAKED
THE MAV GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY...BUT STAYED REALLY CLOSE FOR POPS.
OTHERWISE MAV WAS GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
EAST AT THE START OF THE SHIFT...HOWEVER THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH MO/TN EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THOSE STORMS WERE ALSO MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. NOT
ANTICIPATING RE-DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHTNING/INTENSITY WAS INCREASING AS THE STORMS DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHEAST. DID NOT ADD A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO THE ZONES...BUT KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH FOR THE NOWCAST THROUGH 12Z.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
THE NEXT COMPLEX WAS MOVING THROUGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON....WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
PARAMETERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELTA REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THE SAME WORDING IN THE HWO...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE
OVER THE GULF WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
TO SLOW THE BOUNDARY/STORM COMPLEX DOWN...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
NOT SHOWING ANY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR NEW QPF AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER WEEKEND EXPECTED AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S LOOK
PROBABLE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKING PRECIP CHANCES
A TOUCH TRICKY.
OVERALL PATTERN WILL MIGRATE FROM A MODEST S/WV TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING AXIS ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO A
SUBTLE S/WV NW FLOW TROUGHING REGIME OVER THE WEEKEND TO A WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AS A MODESTLY PROGGED 593DM RIDGE SETS
UP OVER S-CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFTS OVER THE REGION
BY MID WEEK. 05/00Z GFS VS. 04/12Z EC SHOWED STRONGER MOMENTUM TO
WEEKEND BOUNDARY GETTING FARTHER SOUTH NEAR I-10 CORRIDOR AND
SLIDING A H7 SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE UNDER THE DEVELOPING H5 S-CNTRL
PLAINS RIDGE INDICATING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EC HAS BEEN SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
RIDGE, LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR POTENTIAL NW FLOW MCS/S WITH
SEVERAL APPARENT INDICATIONS IN QPF MASS FIELDS. YET, HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS 00Z GFS GIVEN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN H7 AND H5 ENSEMBLE
MEAN/PERTURBATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS. LATEST 00Z EC COMING IN HAS
SHIFTED H5 RIDGE AXIS FARTHER EAST, HELPING INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN
HOTTER/DRIER FORECAST. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL NW SURPRISES IF RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BUILD IN.
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY
AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG BUT THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE EXITING EAST BEFORE
BEST AFTN DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PUSHED
FARTHER SOUTH SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT AFTN FOR FAR
SOUTH AREAS AS SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY FLARES UP UNDER PREVAILING NW
FLOW. TEMPS SAT MRNG WILL MORE COMFORTABLE AS OF LATE WITH READINGS
DOWN IN THE LOW 60S. MOISTURE WILL REBOUND QUICKLY SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A HINT OF
AN EMBEDDED SMALLER WAVE IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS A TOUCH FOR W/NW AREAS IN PROXIMITY TO WAVE WHILE
LEAVING INTACT POPS FOR SOUTH AREAS AS SEA-BREEZE ACTION COMMENCES
AGAIN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START TO FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY IN THE MID
90S AS THE H7-5 RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE ARKLAMISS.
TEMPERED TEMPS 1-2F DOWN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF RIDGE NOT BUILDING IN
AS FAST AS GFS ADVERTISED VS. EC AND INCREASED POPS BY 5% TO CARRY
SOME POTENTIAL FOR NW CONVECTION DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UNCAPPED,
DEEPER MOISTURE GRADIENT, AND SUBTLE S/WV TROUGHING TRAIN SETS UP
ALONG A NW/SE AXIS NEARBY. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 91 70 88 69 / 33 33 56 63
MERIDIAN 89 69 89 68 / 41 41 50 64
VICKSBURG 92 71 87 66 / 27 31 58 62
HATTIESBURG 91 70 91 70 / 51 51 36 30
NATCHEZ 90 71 88 68 / 35 35 48 36
GREENVILLE 91 73 86 68 / 34 56 64 58
GREENWOOD 91 71 88 68 / 35 55 67 64
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NE UP THE SE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE STALLED OUT COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...CENTRAL NC REMAINS
MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN
295-305K IS MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER WESTERN NC...AND A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER GEORGIA LAST EVENING. TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING
CLOUD COVER...AS CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING BEHIND THE BAND OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA. HRRR CEILING FORECASTS
SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY AND NEWEST MAV/MET VALUES
ARE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT FORECAST...IF NOT WARMER. THUS...DESPITE
CURRENT PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL LEAVE
HIGHS MOSTLY UNCHANGED..78-83.
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S. DIURNAL...WARM ADVECTION REGIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. -BLS
TONIGHT:
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SELY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN
THE 295-305K LAYER WILL BE SURE TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK...OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. THUS EXPECT NW PIEDMONT TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: A POTENTIALLY VERY WET PERIOD COMING
UP... FEATURING AT LEAST TWO PRIMARY ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS...
ONE THURSDAY AND MORE ON FRIDAY. FIRST... POSITIVELY TILTED MID
LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS WILL PIVOT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND PICK UP THE BAGGY TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... DRAWING IT TO THE NNE TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED TO OUR SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH NC THURSDAY... MARKING THE
LEADING EDGE OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIP WATER. RECENT BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES HAVE BEGUN TO SURGE
NORTHWARD FROM FL INTO SRN GA... AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM
UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPREADING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC
PRIMARILY SRN AND WRN PORTIONS WHERE THERE WILL BE GREATER
TERRAIN-FORCED UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEEP LCL-TO-FREEZING
LAYER DEPTH OVER 4 KM... SO SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY IF THE DEEP NEAR-SATURATION OF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
(ANALYSIS AGAINST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE GFS`S DEEP MOISTURE
COULD BE A LITTLE OVERDONE... WHILE THE NAM`S DEEP DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS WAY TOO DRY.) WILL HOLD ONTO AT
LEAST LIKELY POPS FOCUSING ON SRN/WRN SECTIONS ON THURSDAY...
BRIEFLY TAPERING DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS
A BIT TO 76-82. WILL STICK WITH LOWS JUST ABOVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE... 66-70.
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: MODEL DISPARITY PERSISTS REGARDING THE
TRACK AND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL LOW MOVING FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN
THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER AND EAST OF THE MISS VALLEY. BY 12Z
FRIDAY THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PLACE THE SURFACE LOW OVER SW GA/SE GA/SE
NC RESPECTIVELY. EACH MODEL IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF WHICH
FURTHER REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION. BASED ON ITS
SLIGHTLY SUPERIOR CONTINUITY HOWEVER... WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF FOR THE DETAILS OF
FRIDAY`S FORECAST... BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS QUITE LOW.
THE EXPECTED HIGH FLUX OF PRECIP WATER INTO CENTRAL NC AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NOTED BY THE ECMWF SUPPORTS HIGH POPS... 70-80% CHANCE...
PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. THE CONCERN FOR ISOLATED LOW-TOP
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF THE LOW TRACK AS NOTED BY
PREVIOUS SHIFT PERSISTS... GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE-850 MB
VEERING... BUT AGAIN THE CONFIDENCE IN SUCH DETAILS IS LOW GIVEN THE
WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE TROPICAL SOURCE OF THIS
LOW... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE... AND AT THE VERY LEAST WE
SHOULD SEE A THREAT OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY... HAVE
CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS... TO 77-81. LOWS 66-70 FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING DOWN FROM SW TO NE AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE
SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF NC... ALONG WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WHICH DAMPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NC
FRIDAY EVENING. AREAWIDE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.3-2.2 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS OVER NC AS THE MEAN TROUGH RELOADS BACK ALONG THE MISS
VALLEY... DRIVEN BY A STRONG MID LEVEL JET PLOWING ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW COAST FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS BUT LEAVES A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL (BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO) MOISTURE HOLDING ON IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK...
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVELS... BUT
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL STICK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS... HIGHEST ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... FROM LUNCHTIME THROUGH
EARLY EVENING... BEFORE DIMINISHING HEATING LEADS TO LOWERING
COVERAGE. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...
AND THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH UP HIGHS TO 83-87... IN LINE WITH
NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES. LOWS 66-70. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE ABOVE-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE STRONG WNW MID
LEVEL JET SPREADS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY... SOUTH OF A VORTEX OVER NRN MN. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING HOLDS OVER NC... AND AGAIN EXPECT SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY... PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
A BIT HIGHER LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EAST OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST) SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER NC MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT... BUT DPVA SHOULD BE VERY WEAK DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT.
BUT THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PIEDMONT
SURFACE TROUGH NECESSITATES AT LEAST CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE MID LEVEL VORTEX THEN WOBBLES ACROSS
NRN MI AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY
DROPS ESE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY... AND EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
COOLING ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO OUR EAST AND THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. WILL HAVE JUST LOW CHANCE POPS (BELOW CLIMATOLOGY) TO REFLECT
THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY
DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...
PERSIST LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DESPITE
CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...CEILINGS SHOULD LITTLE PROBLEM
FALLING BACK TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN BY 12Z. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE AT KRDU
AND RWI.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH
IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
OUTLOOK...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NE UP THE SE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE STALLED OUT COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...CENTRAL NC REMAINS
MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN
295-305K IS MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER WESTERN NC...AND A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER GEORGIA LAST EVENING. TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING
CLOUD COVER...AS CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING BEHIND THE BAND OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA. HRRR CEILING FORECASTS
SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY AND NEWEST MAV/MET VALUES
ARE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT FORECAST...IF NOT WARMER. THUS...DESPITE
CURRENT PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL LEAVE
HIGHS MOSTLY UNCHANGED..78-83.
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S. DIURNAL...WARM ADVECTION REGIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. -BLS
TONIGHT:
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SELY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN
THE 295-305K LAYER WILL BE SURE TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK...OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. THUS EXPECT NW PIEDMONT TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...
THREE PRIMARY FEATURES WILL DEFINE OUR FORECAST FOR THE WEEKS
END...INCLUDING A DEEPENING MID/UPR TROUGH OVER THE MISS AND TN
VALLEYS THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST...THE WARM FRONT THAT`S
PRESENTLY TO OUR SOUTH OVER SC...AND THE SFC LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON
THURSDAY...CROSSING OUR CWA DURING THE DAYTIME. EXPECT THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND AT THIS POINT FEEL COMFORTABLE INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF QPF BETWEEN 18Z THUR
AND 03Z FRI. WHILE STABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...THUS AT THIS POINT SVR
THREAT LOOKS LIMITED WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PRECIP...THE CONSENSUS OF MOS
GUIDE...WHICH HOLDS HIGHS AROUND 80...LOOKS REASONABLE...IF NOT A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IN THE DAY THE RAIN
ARRIVES.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WELL ADVERTISED LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NE ACROSS THE SE STATES. AT THIS POINT...PREFER THE ECWMF
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY AND REASONABLE SFC PRESSURE EVOLUTION
AND ARRANGEMENT. LEANING TOWARD ITS SOLUTION...LOOK FOR BANDS OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW TO BEGIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...UP TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT... UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREV RUNS AND TRACKS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW FROM NEAR KSAV AT
12Z FRI TO NEAR KRIC BY 00Z SAT...TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG I-95
DURING THE DAYTIME AS IT MOVES ACROSS NC. TWO MAIN CONCERNS AS THEY
RELATE TO IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY INCLUDE...
1) POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC...AND SOME SPOTS SEEING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS
COULD RESULT IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR LOCATIONS THAT
SEE THE HEAVIER RAIN.
2) POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SVR CELLS OR PERHAPS A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELLS AND QUICK/BRIEF SPIN-UPS ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE WE SEE A JUXTAPOSITION OF THE
NOSE OF THE 50+ KT LLVL JET...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED 0-6KT
SHEAR...AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW VS THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AFT 00Z SAT
AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WHILE PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL LESSEN...CAN`T COMPLETELY REMOVE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE
L/W TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM OF US. 20-30 POPS SHOULD COVER PRECIP
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAV LOOKS TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SITUATION. WHILE WE DON`T BUY
INTO THE NAM SOLUTION...THE MET GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE FOR
TEMPS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY...BUT
WITH A LINGERING SFC TROUGH IN PLACE AND THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY...PREFER TO
KEEP AT LEAST LOW-END POPS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN OUR PREFERENCE FOR
THE ECMWF AND SENSIBLE WX EXPECTATIONS...PREFER MEL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WHICH SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. UNTIL IT IS EAST OF US HOWEVER...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...
PERSIST LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DESPITE
CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...CEILINGS SHOULD LITTLE PROBLEM
FALLING BACK TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN BY 12Z. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE AT KRDU
AND RWI.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH
IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
OUTLOOK...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
108 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
18 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LISBON TO FARGO TO WASKISH. A MORE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN BAND EXTENDS FROM NEAR BAGLEY/BEMIDJI
NORTH AND EAST TOWARD ELY MN. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL VALID...
CALLING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED
A DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND FORKS TO BAUDETTE LINE...BUT LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT THERMAL CU. TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE OR LESS ON TRACK. UPDATED POPS/WEATHER WITH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
15 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS FROM BEMIDJI
TO DETROIT LAKES TO FERGUS FALLS AND WAHPETON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 00
UTC TONIGHT. STARTING TO SEE SOME SUN ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND THINK THIS CLEARING SHOULD VERY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON LATEST RAP 925 TO 850 HPA RH PROFILE.
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
SO DECREASED TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS A FEW DEGREES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH. UPDATED POPS/WX/SKY/TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR ABOVE THINKING AND LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SFC LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF WAHPETON AT 12Z WITH UPPER LOW ALONG THE
ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA. FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTN AS IT MOVES EAST. BIG ISSUE
IS CLEARING TREND TODAY. CLEARING ENTERING FAR NW FCST AREA AND
THIS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST...BUT ALSO WITH LOTS OF 850 MB MOISTURE
WONDER IF WITH ANY SUN IT WILL CU UP. WILL LET FFA EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SFC LOW OVER VALLEY CITY AT 08Z WITH 500 MB LOW JUST SOUTH. MAIN
RAIN AREA HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST TOWARD BRAINERD-DULUTH-GRAND RAPIDS
MN AREAS. BUT FEED OF SHOWERS EXTENDS WEST INTO GRAND FORKS AREA
THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD JAMESTOWN. BUT THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT
BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH HEAVY RAINFALL. PAST 24-36 HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HIGHEST IN THE GRAND FORKS COUNTY REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
1.30 TO 2 INCHES WITH OTHER POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO SOUTHERN
WALSH AND NORTHWEST POLK COUNTIES WEST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
REGION. COORD WITH WFO BIS WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH TIL 12Z
EXPIRATION. HAVE HEARD NO ISSUES WITH FLOODING ANYWHERE FORTUNATELY.
AROUND SFC LOW IS SOME FOG WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AREA WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT IT WILL TAKE
MOST OF THE DAY FOR ALL PRECIP TO MOVE OUT. WILL HANG ONTO THE
CLOUDS A BIT LONGER THAN PREV FCST AS WELL...SOME CLEARING
ENTERING NW ND INTO WINNIPEG AND THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST...BUT HIGH 850 MB MOISTURE MAY MEAN SOME CUMULUS
REDEVELOPMENT WITH ANY SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
CLEARING...BUT 850 MB REMAINS STUBBORN SO FULL CLEARING MAY TAKE A
WHILE. TEMPS WARMING SLOWLY WITH NR 70 THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAKE A RETURN FRIDAY WITH LOWER 70S IN MOST
AREAS. DID NOT BRING IN ANY PRECIP TO NRN FCST AREA
FRIDAY....UKMET ONLY MODEL SHOWING SOME PRECIP IN FAR NRN VALLEY
DUE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU MANITOBA.
THERE IS GENERALLY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE VARIOUS
DYNAMIC MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. UPPER AIR
PATTERN SUGGESTS A FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LESS BLOCKING TO
THE EAST SUPPORTS THE FASTER MOVEMENT.
SHOULD THE GFS VERIFY THE CONVECTION LATE ON SATURDAY COULD BE
ROBUST. FRONT TIMING AT 00Z SUNDAY WITH PWATS >1.3...MUCAPE OVER
1500 AND FAIRLY STRONG 700 WAA/CAA COUPLET ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH GFS...BUT IS
MORE STABLE. ALSO...THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO MORE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM SO SURFACE SYSTEM IS STRETCHED AND NOT SO FOCUSED.
FOR SUNDAY THE MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...AGREE WITH CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR WRAP AROUND SHRA. IN THE W/NW
FLOW WEE WILL HAVE COOLER MID LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND SOME CAPE PAINTED. ECMWF SHOWS MORE QPF WITH THE UPPER
SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH...SUPPORTED BY THE DGEX AND GFS. THIS SLOWER
MOTION STILL MAKES SENSE IN LIGHT OF LINGERING BLOCK WELL TO THE
EAST.
AS A RESULT THE BELOW MEDIAN TEMPERATURE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED THE BLOCKING PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AS PART OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FRONT END OF A PATTERN CHANGE...OF SORTS.
MODELS HINT AT RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN EARNEST AHEAD OF EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING. THICKNESS SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE IN THE
NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH E/NE WINDS CONTINUING AND
BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT IF MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT OUT
OF FORECAST WITH CLEARING LINE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY RIVER FORECAST POINT REMAINING ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE IS ON THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK...WHERE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO RECEDE. THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON ALSO CONTINUES TO
FALL. SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF MAY LEAD TO MODEST ADDITIONAL RISES
BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON THE FOREST RIVER AT MINTO THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. GRADUALLY FALLING RIVER STAGES ARE EXPECTED ON CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED RIVER. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO MAY
BRIEFLY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DUE TO RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1253 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 CDT WED JUN 5 2013
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD ADVISORY OVER MCLEAN COUNTY INTO FRIDAY.
WILL EVALUATE EXTENDING THE REMAINING FLOOD ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST HAS REMAIN LARGELY THE SAME...AND WENT WITH GUIDANCE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE MAX TEMPS IN THE
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 CDT WED JUN 5 2013
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD ADVISORY OVER WARD...RENVILLE...
BOTTINEAU...MCHENRY...PARTS OF BURKE...AND PARTS OF MOUNTRAIL INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL EVALUATE EXTENDING THE REMAINING FLOOD
ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST HAS REMAIN LARGELY THE
SAME...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POP UP SHOWERS IN THE WEST WHERE
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FORECAST LARGELY OK. WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINING
COUNTIES WITHIN THE WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS THE EXITING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL EVIDENT AS
FAR WEST AS GLEN ULLIN. THE 02 THROUGH 06 UTC HRRR...ALONG
WITH OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS...HAS MAINTAINED THE IDEA THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
BASED ON THE REDUCED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEVIATES FROM THE HRRR THINKING AND
CLEARS OUT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FLOOD WATCHES...ADVISORIES...AND WARNINGS HAVE ALL BEEN
MAINTAINED SO THAT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CAN BE CONTACTED TO
ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF AREAL AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
MORNING.
PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT HAS ONLY MANAGED
TO FORM AT JAMESTOWN THUS FAR. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING HIGHER AT OTHER LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A FEW
TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES FOR
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
THE PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING EAST OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER
MY WEST AND NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME.
BOTH THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON NEAREST TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED GREAT LAKES OPEN WAVE. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AM
NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
WEAK S/WV RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN SINC FOR THE ONSET OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE GEM/NAM/AND ECMWF WITH A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE AND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK BY AROUND 6
HOURS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH AFTERNOON
POPS FAR WEST AND NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
BASED ON THE ADVERTISED LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL MAY
SEE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR WINDS.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES. A THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOW STRONG
AND WHERE DEPENDS ON HOW FAST A SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE WEST TO EAST SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 CDT WED JUN 5 2013
SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH DAKOTA IS KEEPING LOW
STRATUS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE
THE REGION AS IFR CONDITIONS AT JMS WILL REMAIN TIL AROUND 00Z.
WITH ALL THE SURFACE MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS DO EXPECT
SOME FOR FORMATION OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAIN ON THE DENSITY
AND EXTENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
WARD...RENVILLE...MCLEAN...MCHENRY...BOTTINEAU...BURKE AND
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED.
POINTS ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO THE
INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE MONDAY. EARLIER
ISSUED NEW FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE DES LACS RIVER AT FOXHOLM WITH
THE STAGE RAPIDLY RISING TO MAJOR FLOOD. A CREST OF 20 FEET IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ISSUED A
NEW WARNING FOR MINOT 4NW...WITH THE FORECAST GOING FROM MINOR TO
MAJOR MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE ON THE DES LACS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...MM
HYDROLOGY...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
206 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE EARLIER STORMS AFFECTING MIDDLE
TENNESSEE HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR MOVED OUT OF THE MID STATE
ALTOGETHER, LEAVING US WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND A HUMID
ATMOSPHERE. RADAR SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, BUT THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY
WON`T MAKE IT THIS FAR, WITH THE BULK OF TONIGHT`S PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHES IN
FROM THE NW JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. POP`S WILL
DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY AFTER TOMORROW AS ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOES
PARTIAL DRYING. HOWEVER, NAM DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW NEAR LMK
ASSIMILATING INTO A DEEPER GULF LOW AND FINALLY PULLING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY, SO CAN`T
COMPLETELY WIPE OUT POP`S FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER A DRY, COOLER WEEKEND, LOOK FOR A RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POP`S BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS WE SEE THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A STEEP NW FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 68 83 67 82 / 90 70 40 40
CLARKSVILLE 67 82 64 81 / 90 60 40 30
CROSSVILLE 66 78 64 77 / 80 90 60 60
COLUMBIA 69 84 67 82 / 90 70 50 40
LAWRENCEBURG 69 83 66 82 / 80 70 60 40
WAVERLY 68 82 64 81 / 90 60 40 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
112 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-STATE...WITH
TAIL END CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE PLATEAU. THIS SHORTWAVE JUST
ONE OF SEVERAL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24-48HRS. THIS TREND WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHWRS/STMS ACROSS THE
MID-STATE...REDUCING CEILINGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. AFTER CONVECTION
VACATES PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...NEXT WAVE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...SWEEPING ACROSS THE MID-STATE THRU LATE MORNING THU
WITH NEXT IMPULSE. OUTSIDE OF PCPN...CONDITIONS LARGELY VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...CLOSELY MONITORING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF NASHVILLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL. SO FAR NO WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED, BUT SEVERAL CELLS HAVE REACHED THE "STRONG"
DESCRIPTOR. LATEST HRRR CYCLE SHOWS INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
NASHVILLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE RAISED POP`S THERE TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A LIFTED INDEX OF
-5.5, CAPE OF 1157 J/KG, AND A K-INDEX 31, SO THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE DEFINITELY THERE NOW. YESTERDAY`S STRONG ELEVATED
INVERSION HAS MOSTLY ERODED, AS NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED.
LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC PAINTS THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCE OF THAT WILL BE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...
PER CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SFC OBS...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS W OF I-65 THRU THE MORNING HRS
ALONG WITH MENTIONING MOCLDY SKIES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS TOO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SHOWERS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE...AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT BNA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL CARRY A TEMPO PERIOD FOR TSRA
AT CSV THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS TODAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS MID STATE DURING
THE MORNING HRS TODAY...ANY CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SVR TSTM POTENTIAL
TODAY THRU FRI...AND TEMPS(ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK).
WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SFC OBS...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THRU PRESS TIME FOR FINAL DECISION...AS LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THIS MORNING...AND AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THAT SOME OF THESE MAY WORK INTO AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE THIS MORNING PER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE INFLUENCES...AND
DESPITE NOT HAVING THE BEGINNING EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING UNTIL
THE MID MORNING HRS...ISO SHWRS/TSTMS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE MID
STATE THRU THE MORNING HRS TOO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY GOING CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING FROM TODAY THRU THE DAY ON FRI. EXPECT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE POTENTIAL AND THE AFFECTS OF ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING
INFLUENCES...MOST ENHANCED DUE TO ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES PLATEAU
REGION...TO RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. WILL GO CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING WITH HIGHEST SCT POPS PLATEAU TO LESSER CHANCES TO THE W.
WOULD GENERALLY BE SPLITTING HAIRS IN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EURO/GFS/NAM MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL JUST GO CLOSE TO GFS MOS
VALUES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S...LOWER 80S ACROSS PLATEAU
REGION.
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE AS A
SFC FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE MID STATE ALONG WITH POSSIBLY OTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT AND INTO THU. BELIEVE
SHWRS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN NATURE BY LATE TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST
ISO TSTMS TOWARD THE MORNING HRS...WITH NUMEROUS...TO CATEGORICAL
PLATEAU WHERE ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL AGAIN COME INTO
PLAY...SHWRS/TSTMS ON THU. EXPECT THE SFC FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE MID STATE THU NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH E OF THE MID
STATE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY ON FRI...WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING INFLUENCES PLAYING A ROLE AGAIN IN USHERING POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION TOO...THUS SUPPORTING CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. AS FOR TEMPS....WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN EURO/GFS/NAM VALUES EXPECT FOR ON
THU...WHERE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT TOO WARM OF TEMPS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED...AND THUS IN THIS
CASE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD EURO/NAM VALUES.
AS FOR TODAY THRU FRI...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE THE MID STATE WITHIN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA. WITH EVERYTHING CONSIDERED...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ORGANIZED SVR TSTM POTENTIAL...BUT BELIEVE THAT
STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE BEING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TOTAL GRIDDED QPF
VALUES FROM TODAY THRU FRI SHOW GENERALLY THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR FRI NIGHT THRU THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR THE
CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO DECREASE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE AS THE NIGHT TIME HOURS PROGRESS...LEADING TO BUILDING SFC
RIDGING INFLUENCES ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE WEEKEND. WILL THUS
KEEP MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY ON SAT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS PER DIURNAL BASED LIFTING MECHANISMS PLATEAU...AND
CONTINUE THIS TREND ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS FOR LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER AS A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE MID PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN FLOW ALOFT ALONG
WITH SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE OR JUST
SLIGHTLY N OF THIS...TO AID IN MAINLY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS NRN PORTIONS
TO ISO SHWRS/TSTMS SRN PORTIONS THRU THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THRU
THE WEEKEND. AS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST GFS RUN
CONTINUING THE TREND OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF TRYING TO BUILD IN A
SUMMER TYPE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE MID STATE...WHERE THE LATEST
EURO AND DGEX SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS RIDGING FURTHER W. WILL THUS LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO TEMPS THRU THIS TIME PERIOD AND
KEEP THOSE 90-DEG DAYS AGAIN AT BAY FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER TOO.
31
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
235 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A flat ridge of high pressure will dictate the weather over the
Inland Northwest through the weekend. Above normal afternoon
temperatures and low precipitation chances will be the result.
Winds will be on the breezy side Friday and Saturday. Unsettled
weather conditions remain possible by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A mild night is in store for the Inland Northwest
tonight. An upper level disturbance currently near the Jasper area
in the Canadian Rockies will continue its trek to the east
tonight. The best combination of moisture and synoptic scale lift
will remain well north of the Canadian border tonight. An
isolated shower can`t be ruled out early this evening over the
high peaks around Bonners Ferry. The 1 PM RUC analysis suggests
surface based CAPE up to 200 J/KG over the ridges of the Idaho
Panhandle, but the model suggests some weak capping as well. Any
showers that do develop will be isolated and should decay by 8 PM.
For the remainder of the night, look for bands of cirrus to spill
into the region. The typical evening drainage wind into the
Wenatchee area will probably be enhanced by a bit of marine air
spilling through Stevens Pass. Winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected
in the Wenatchee area through about 9 PM.
Thursday: Temperatures on Thursday should be another 2 to 4
degrees warmer than today over northeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. The 850mb temperatures progs from the NAM and GFS
suggest comparable high temperatures for Wenatchee and Moses Lake
compared to today. By late afternoon, the nose of the Polar Jet is
expected to impinge upon southern British Columbia, and the models
prog a minor wiggle in the 500mb flow over the Idaho Panhandle
late in the day. The NAM and SREF produce more shower activity
late in the day than the ECMWF and GFS over the mountains of the
Idaho Panhandle and over the Blue mountains. Even the "wet"
NAM/SREF produce isolated convection at best, so the mention of
shower activity will be limited to a 20 percent chance over the
ridges over the Panhandle and extreme southeast Washington. /GKoch
Thursday night through Sunday...Flat ridge with zonal flow
through it marks this forecast interval. With this in mind the
majority of shortwave disturbances traversing through this flow
will be primarily result in repeat days of afternoon/evening gusty
winds with each passage. Fronts/shortwaves having the best tie
into moisture include the one passing Friday and even then since
there is considerable westerly flow downsloping off the Cascade
mountains keeping a significant rainshadow in place extending into
a good portion of the lowlands so the most significant pop
increase (which isn`t much) is primarily over the mountains near
the British Columbia border and the North Idaho Panhandle.
Forecast temperatures remain on the warm side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti
Sunday night through Wednesday...The Inland Northwest will be under
increasing southerly flow, with potentially more unsettled weather
and continued warm temperatures. While the warm temperatures are
more of a certainty, the details of the transition to southerly
flow has still not been ironed out. This will have an impact on
timing of better precipitation chances. Until a more consensus
solution shows itself, we kept the highest chances for any shower
or thunderstorm over the Idaho panhandle beginning Wednesday.
Otherwise, the temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Only subtle changes have been made to the 18Z TAFS. The
12Z guidance suggests a bit less wind late this afternoon into the
evening, so winds have been adjusted downward. Wenatchee may still
have 3 or 4 hours of gusts in the 15-20kt range with a weak push
of marine air descends through the Wenatchee River Valley. The
evening drainage wind will reinforce the marine push through mid
evening. Elsewhere, winds will generally be less than 10kts and
clouds will be at or above 15 thousand feet. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 57 85 58 82 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 52 84 53 81 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 51 84 55 81 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 58 91 60 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 52 89 53 86 49 82 / 0 10 0 10 10 0
Sandpoint 48 82 50 79 47 76 / 0 10 0 10 10 10
Kellogg 55 81 56 78 52 74 / 0 10 10 10 10 0
Moses Lake 55 89 58 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 62 88 61 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 53 89 54 83 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1248 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
WEAK TO MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
MEDFORD WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA. THIS LINE IS A AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE...SO ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE HOURLY POP AND GRIDS TO
HANDLE THIS. BEHIND THIS BAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE
LOWERED...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE MODELS
TRYING TO GENERATE CAPE IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FOR THIS MORNING...WATCHING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MODERATE 300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS LIFT HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA ALREADY.
THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM FARGO NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE NAM...RAP...AND GFS SHOW THAT
MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE RELATIVE VORTICITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES CLIMB TO
AROUND 8.5 C/KM AND SURFACE BASE CAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR AIR
FUNNELS AND NONSUPERCELL TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM FARGO TO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE TWIN
CITIES.
FOR TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A COLD
POCKET OF AIR LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL IN SOME SOME
INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA /ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENING/ FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO COME TO A CONSENSUS THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL EAST THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
/MORE ON THIS THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION/. THE
05.00Z GFS IS CURRENTLY SHOWING THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH A STRONG CAP
LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...ML CAPES ARE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE
3000 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE ON TUESDAY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR CLIMBS ABOVE
40 KNOTS WHICH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...THERE
WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION WITH EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...THE 0-1 KM
HELICITY CLIMBS INTO THE 200 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING
EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FOR
THE GREATEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
THIS WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECASTS
AREA. IT WOULD IMPLY THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. SINCE THE THE ECMWF USUALLY DOES THE BEST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND NEITHER MODEL HAS BEEN THAT CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST WEEK...WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
KRST/KLSE REMAIN ON THE NORTH/EAST SIDE OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE
HAS KEPT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS. FOR
TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AT KRST/KLSE.
HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LIFR AT KRST AND IFR AT KLSE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO...GOOD HINTS IN THE
MODEL SIGNALS THAT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS SO HAVE INCLUDED THAT FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THIS MORNING AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE FELL TO ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 9 FEET
AROUND 7 PM ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IT CONTINUED TO FALL OVERNIGHT.
WITH ITS LATEST STAGE AROUND 8.6 FEET...WILL BE DROPPING THIS
FLOOD WARNING SHORTLY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 05.00Z GFS BRINGS A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMB TO AROUND 4.5 KM AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
FROM 1.5 INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING
INTO THE THE REGION...CONCERNED THAT THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME
RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS
FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...ITS FLOODING
THREAT WOULD EXIST FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO THE BOOT HEAL OF MISSOURI. SINCE THE ECMWF TYPICALLY VERIFIES
THE BEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENCY
ISSUES DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL NOT ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
/ESF/ AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE