Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/04/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BRING
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH
NEW MEXICO WILL GENERALLY STAY EAST OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A BIT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE STATE LINE. PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH A HEAD START
ON YESTERDAY DUE TO HIGHER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THE POTENTIAL
SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING WE TWEAKED FORECAST TEMPERATURES
UP A TAD. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND HRRR WE ALSO TRENDED CLOUD
COVER AND FAR EASTERN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DOWN A LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER SRN
CHIHUAHUA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOWER-LEVEL ELY FLOW WAS ADVECTING
MOISTURE WWD ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO. BASED ON VARIOUS 02/00Z NWP
MODELS...HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL MON-TUE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA. VERY DRY REGIME TO CONTINUE WED-THUR
AS WEAK WLY FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO NWLY FLOW ON THUR.
FOR FRI-SAT...02/00Z GFS/ECWMF WERE VERY SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A
REX BLOCK JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED NEAR THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THE ECMWF WAS MORE-ROBUST VERSUS THE
GFS WITH MOVING MOISTURE MAINLY ABOVE 600 MB SEWD ACROSS SE AZ. A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF YIELDED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRI-SAT.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 1-2 DEGS F HOTTER VERSUS SAT
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCALES MAY APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED RECORD TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KTUS. A FEW DEGREES OF MINOR COOLING WILL
OCCUR MON FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS WITH
ISOLD -TSRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKC-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU MONDAY
MORNING OR 03/12Z. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WLY/SWLY 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH FAIR TO POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR...WITH
GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
808 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...A FEW SVR TSTMS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE FAR NERN
CORNER WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS COMBINING WITH A CONVERGENCE
ZONE. MEANWHILE PSEUDO FNT FM HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS PUSHING
BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE. SOME HIGHER BASED SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS BNDRY SO WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS.
.AVIATION...LATEST RAP SHOWS BNDRY REACHING THE DIA AROUND 04Z
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE ENE HOWEVER IT HAS WINDS BECOMING MORE
NLY BY MIDNIGHT AS A 2ND FNT MOVES DOWN FM WYOMING. AT THIS TIME
LOW LVLS OVERNIGHT LOOK TOO DRY FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013/
SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA AROUND 00Z AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS...ONLY WEAK CONVECTION EXPECTED AND NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN LOGAN...
SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES HOLDING IN A BIT MORE MOISTURE...
BUT THIS IS ALSO MIXING OUT MORE SLOWLY. STILL A LOW THREAT OF A
STRONG STORM ON THE BORDER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...THEN THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE. WITH 700 MB FLOW AROUND 25 KNOTS GUST
POTENTIAL FROM MIXING WILL BE LIMITED...THOUGH ACCELERATION FROM
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. EXPECT THAT TO BE QUITE
LIMITED HOWEVER. ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO COVER
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING PRETTY WELL WITH
ISOLATED POPS.
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND COOLING. WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW 50 IN MOST PLAINS
LOCATIONS HOWEVER.
FOR TUESDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE EAST...BUT IN
COOL AIR TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. DEEPER MOISTENING WILL OCCUR
WITH CONVECTION...MAINLY ON THE EDGE OF THE COOL AIR NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. COULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE FOOTHILLS
LATE IN THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE GETS HEATED...BUT FOR THE PLAINS
THE THREAT APPEARS PRETTY LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...FOR TUESDAY EVENING...WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH
INCREASING UPSLOPE ALONG FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS URBAN CORRIDOR.
MODELS INDICATE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS UP ALONG FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS
ACROSS PALMER DIVIDE IN AREA OF BEST CONVERGENCE. THERE IS ALSO
SOME MID LEVEL QG ASCENT. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NAM STILL SHOWING THE HIGHER CAPES WITH
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THIS REGION WHILE THE GFS INDICATING
CAPES AROUND 100-200 J/KG. BOTH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING
SOME SORT OF A CAP...SO THE IDEA OF WEAK STORMS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.7 TO 0.8 FROM
FOOTHILLS ACROSS PLAINS...MEASURABLE RAINFALL A GOOD BET. AT THIS
TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE WEAK
STORM POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW
THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM
URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE LESS STABLE. COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. ON
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH EVEN COOLER AIR WHICH WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS FAIRLY
STABLE. BEST CHANCE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY TO LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WITH 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AND STABLE AIR SPREADING IN FROM
THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CFWA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL QG ASCENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS IN THE AREA OF A THETA-E RIDGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PLAINS LOOK TO BE NEAR 80 DEGREES BOTH DAYS.
FOR THE LATER DAYS SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY: UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...PUSHES A COOL FRONT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. TROUGH EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER AND WARMER WITH NOT POPS. ON MONDAY
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL QG ASCENT OVER MOUNTAINS. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT KDEN/KAPA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER
GUSTS WITH A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER...BUT IT WOULD PROBABLY STILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
324 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A FEW ECHOES ON RADAR NEAR THE SRN BORDER OF
RIO GRANDE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...ONLY SEEING A FEW CU DEVELOPING ALONG
THE ERN MTS. THE LATEST NAM RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PCPN OVR THE
MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND EVEN KEEPS SOME LINGERING PCPN
OVR THE SWRN CO MTS LATE TONIGHT. THE HRRR KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA
DRY UNTIL AROUND 01Z AND THEN SHOWS A LITTLE QPF OVR THE SERN CORNER
OF THE STATE...WHICH THE GFS ALSO SHOWS. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS
FOCUSED OVR AND NR THE SRN MTS THIS EVENING AND ENDING LATE.
ON MONDAY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH AN UPR LOW MOVING
ACRS MT DURING THE DAY AND AN UPR RIDGE OVR MEXICO. THE SFC WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACRS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST OR SW AND IT LOOKS LIKE MANY AREAS COULD
SEE THE GUSTS REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AND WITH THE
WESTERLY FLOW THE DEW POINTS WILL DRY OUT AND RH VALUES WL DROP
BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THUS WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 222...225...227...233 AND 237 WHERE THE
FUELS ARE DRY AND THE WIND AND RH CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET. ZONE 221
LOOKED MARGINAL SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE WARNING FOR NOW...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED WITH LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS. IN
ZONE 225 IT LOOKED LIKE THE RH AND WIND CRITERIA WOULD BE MET MAINLY
BELOW 9000 FEET.
ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR MONDAY IT WHERE THE DRY LINE WILL SET UP. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 PUSHES THE DRY LINE WELL INTO KS MON
AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CO BORDER. THE NAM HAS SPOTTY PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NOTHING UNTIL
EVENING...WHEN IT TOO HAS SPOTTY QPF. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS BEING DRY...MEASURABLE PCPN WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND THE
MAIN THUNDERSTORMS THREATS WOULD BE WIND AND LIGHTNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
...CHANCE OF SOME STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF SVR WX RETURNING TO
THE AREA TUE AND WED. ON TUE...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVR THE
DAKOTAS...AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SET THE STAGE FOR SCT TS DEVELOPMENT TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVE. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVR THE ERN MTS AND THEN
SHIFT EWD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...IN THE 40 KT RANGE INCREASING TO 50 KTS OR
MORE BY EVE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WHICH WILL KEEP CAPE MAINLY IN THE 750-1200 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...GOOD FORCING ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE WILL HELP BUILD
A FEW STRONG STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SVR AS
THEY MOVE E OF I-25 AND INTO BETTER MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR WX WILL BE OVER THE SE PLAINS INCLUDING BACA AND
PROWERS COUNTIES...WHICH IS WHERE SPC CURRENTLY HAS THEIR SLIGHT
RISK OUTLOOK FOR DAY 3. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN ON
MONDAY...BUT STILL FAIRLY WARM FOR THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 80S.
WEDNESDAY COULD BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH SVR WX POTENTIAL...BUT IT
WILL ALSO BE A BIT TRICKY WITH THE PREVIOUS DAY`S CONVECTION
POSSIBLY HAVING AND EFFECT ON MORNING CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE ATMOSPHERE MIGHT BECOME TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT
STRONG CONVECTION. EARLIER RUNS OF THE NAM HAD HINTED AT THAT
POSSIBILITY...WHILE THE LATEST NAM SEEMS TO BE ALIGNING BETTER WITH
THE GFS IN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND AND MAINTAIN A THREAT
OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE OVR THE ERN
MTS...THEN SPREADING TO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE COULD BE A
BIT HIGHER WED...SO IF THERE IS A BIT OF SUN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
THIS COULD BRING THE THREAT OF SVR A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST WED
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THU-FRI. DECREASED SHEAR MAY LIMIT THE SVR THREAT...BUT WITH
SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE THE FOCUS MAY SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. NCEP MODELS INDICATE BETWEEN .25 AND .50 INCHES
OF LIQUID FOR THE WALDO SCAR TUE...ANOTHER .5 TO 1.0 INCHES
WED...AND STILL MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI. SO...THE
WALDO BURN SCAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TROUBLE SPOT AND WILL NEED
SOME EXTRA ATTENTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WEST TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ222-225-227-
233-237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
910 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
...DEEP MOISTURE FEED OUT OF TROPICS TO BRING CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN
THIS WEEK...
CURRENT...THE EVENING...04/00Z...UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM THE
FLORIDA SITES SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM AROUND 2 INCHES
TO 2.25 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING VALUES AS THE
DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PULLS CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE LATEST RUC SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING AN
AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. MID LEVEL TROUGHING WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE GULF COAST AREAS AND TOWARD
FLORIDA. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA) THAT WAS OVERTOP OF THE
PENINSULA WAS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD HELP TO
EXPLAIN THE DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIP THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE RUC SHORT TERM MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND WIND FIELDS
WERE SHOWING AREAS OF STRONGER POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF MOVING NORTHWARD AND TOWARD FLORIDA IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING STORM CHANCES AND ONLY SHOWERS LOOKS
REASONABLE AS THE NVA OVERHEAD LIFTS AWAY AND THE PVA STARTS MOVING
OVER THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
ZONE UPDATE WILL ADDRESS WEATHER TREND/S FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS AFTER 04/06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT...OFFSHORE WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BUOY/S WERE RECORDING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. THE
TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS JUST OFF THE COAST WERE RECORDING 2 FOOT SEAS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
311 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
...DEEP MOISTURE FEED OUT OF TROPICS TO BRING CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN
THIS WEEK...
CURRENT...THE EVENING...04/00Z...UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM THE
FLORIDA SITES SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM AROUND 2 INCHES
TO 2.25 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING VALUES AS THE
DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PULLS CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE LATEST RUC SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING AN
AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. MID LEVEL TROUGHING WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE GULF COAST AREAS AND TOWARD
FLORIDA. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA) THAT WAS OVERTOP OF THE
PENINSULA WAS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD HELP TO
EXPLAIN THE DECREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIP THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE RUC SHORT TERM MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND WIND FIELDS
WERE SHOWING AREAS OF STRONGER POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF MOVING NORTHWARD AND TOWARD FLORIDA IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING STORM CHANCES AND ONLY SHOWERS LOOKS
REASONABLE AS THE NVA OVERHEAD LIFTS AWAY AND THE PVA STARTS MOVING
OVER THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
ZONE UPDATE WILL ADDRESS WEATHER TREND/S FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS AFTER 04/06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT...OFFSHORE WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BUOY/S WERE RECORDING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. THE
TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS JUST OFF THE COAST WERE RECORDING 2 FOOT SEAS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
457 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS WLY FLOW
ALOFT AND A NARROW AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT STILL AFFECTING THE CWA. A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
DOWNSTREAM FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SW TO THE S CENTRAL U.S. WHERE
IT BECOMES BROAD AND WEAK. THE SRN PORTION OF TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY IS WHERE SCT CONVECTION IS LOCATED ATTM. WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MEAN
1000-700 MB FLOW HAS TURNED MORE SLY AND PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS PER 00Z JAX SOUNDING AT 1.53 INCHES. OTHERWISE...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. SLY FLOW APPEARS TO BE
ENHANCING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS PARTS OF CWA WITH LOW STRATUS AT
TIMES WITH PATCHY FOG.
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...WEAK FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
CONVECTION AND STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY S TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION QUITE A BIT
WEAKER TODAY AND WEAKER SELY LLVL WINDS. GIVEN THIS PATTERN AND
HIGHER PWAT AIR...RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT
BEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS INLAND NE FL AS SELY FLOW
MEETS UP WITH A W COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL BE MORE ACTIVE.
MODIFIED SBCAPE TODAY ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 1700-2600 J/JG AND LI -5
TO -6. MAIN ISSUE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES BECOME
ELEVATED ALONG THE ERN ZONES IN THE MORNING AND THEN PROCEED TO
INCREASE INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME HEATING BECOMES MAXIMIZED AND SEA
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW MERGE. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S E ZONES TO NEAR 90 INLAND. NOT AS
BREEZY WITH ELY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND 5-10
MPH INLAND.
TONIGHT...ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION ANTICIPATED IN THE 8PM-MIDNIGHT
TIME FRAME MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR AND W
OF HIGHWAY 301. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND RAIN
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT SO WE WILL LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AND GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND MID 80S
COAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NOW BEGINNING TO LOOK AS THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY...THUS WE WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 50-60% IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP POPS AT 30-40% ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN GOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE 0Z RUN WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
SHOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A
LITTLE MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS BEFORE HITTING
THIS TOO HARD. IN THE MEANTIME...WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT GNV THROUGH 13Z WITH CIGS
BECOMING MVFR 13Z-17Z. FOR REST OF TAFS OCNL TO PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE BETTER DURING
THE DAYTIME TODAY. IN FACT...APPEARS THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FROM ABOUT 11Z-16Z AS LLVL CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE ERN ZONES
SO VCSH IN PLACE FOR JAX METRO TAFS AND SSI. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS COULD AFFECT GNV TAF IN THE AFTN WITH VCTS BY 18Z BUT THINK
ITS TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP. VCSH HAS BEEN PLACED IN FROM
00Z TO 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WITH ESE SWELL OF ABOUT 3-4 FT NEAR 8-9 SECONDS. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AN INCREASE IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK LIKELY FOR MON DUE TO E TO SE
SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 90 70 88 69 / 40 30 70 60
SSI 83 74 84 74 / 30 20 60 60
JAX 87 71 87 71 / 40 20 60 60
SGJ 84 72 84 72 / 40 20 60 60
GNV 89 70 89 70 / 60 40 70 60
OCF 90 71 89 71 / 60 40 70 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/SHULER/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
405 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT STILL NORTHWEST OF THE STATE HOWEVER TWO LINES OF
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. LOCAL
WRF HAS PICKED UP ON BOTH LINES BUT WEAKENS THE EASTERN LINE AND
LETS THE WESTERN LINE DOMINATE. ALTHOUGH HRRR ISNT AS CLEAR WITH
BOTH LINES...IT DOES SHOW THE WEST LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE AND PUSH EAST. FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THESE TWO HI-RES
MODELS WITH THE FOCUS BECOMING ON THE WEST LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT SO HAVE SHOWN CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING WIND
AND HAIL. BEHIND THIS LINE...COULD STILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH ON FORECAST TONIGHT AS
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /INCLUDING HI RES/...SOME
SHOWING AN ACTIVE NIGHT WHILE OTHERS LIMITING ACTIVITY. HAVE
BASICALLY GONE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON MONDAY. WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT
THAT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
/2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE/ MONDAY AFTERNOON TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.
STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPS ARE NEAR A MODEL BLEND.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1025 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING SO MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TO
REDUCE POPS FOR THE MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH...THE HRRR
INCREASES COVERAGE GREATLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST. SOME INDICATION IN
THE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST OUR POPS UPWARD
OVERNIGHT IN FUTURE UPDATES.
PORTIONS OF FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 4
INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS EVENT SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE
RECEIVED A REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED FLOODING AS
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
11
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/ MODELS
SHOW THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTH GA MONDAY NIGHT... WHERE IT
MEANDERS... THEN DRIFTS BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SPREAD BACK
ACROSS NORTH GA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW BEGINS TO
ADVECT DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA WHILE A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO CARVE A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES DOWN THE MS VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND PROVIDES THE
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL SYSTEM PUSHING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY... ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...THEN UP THE EAST COAST ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF CANADA HELPS HOLD THE
SYSTEM OFF SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY... A CONTINUED
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY... MODELS
SHOW A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH IN ITS WAKE. DUE
TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY FOR NOW AND MONITOR CHANGES IN
THE MODEL RUNS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
39
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TERMINALS AND FOR NOW
IS ORIENTED IN TWO LINES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT THEN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. HAVE KEPT SHRA IN THE
TAFS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE
CHANCE OF MORE TSRA. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF LOWER
CIGS IN THE TSRA BUT SO SHORT LIVED THAT HAVENT INCLUDED IT IN
THE TAF YET EXCEPT FOR MINOR REDUCTION IN VSBY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THE IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION...VSBYS AND CIGS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION...BUT MEDIUM ON SPEEDS DUE TO
POSSIBLE GUSTS IN TSRA.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 84 63 87 / 80 40 30 10
ATLANTA 69 84 68 86 / 80 40 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 80 60 81 / 80 40 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 66 84 62 88 / 80 40 10 10
COLUMBUS 72 87 70 89 / 80 50 30 10
GAINESVILLE 67 83 65 85 / 80 40 20 10
MACON 69 86 68 90 / 80 50 40 20
ROME 67 83 61 88 / 70 30 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 84 62 87 / 80 40 20 10
VIDALIA 72 86 71 89 / 60 60 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES S/SW INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 13Z HRRR SUGGESTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE SEEN SOME WEAK RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO THIS SEEMS TO BE A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON TO EFFINGHAM LINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STRONGLY NEGATIVE
CU-RULE. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND A COOL NORTHWESTERLY WIND...HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. A FEW LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF I-70. ZONE UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...DUE TO QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING TIMING OF POTENTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT. CURRENT
SATELLITE AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDESPREAD BLANKET OF MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLOSEST APPRECIABLE CLEARING
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN IOWA. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT THE CLOUD SHIELD SOUTHEASTWARD...HOWEVER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...SLOWING
THE EXIT OF THE CLOUDS. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HANG
ON TO A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500FT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...SUGGESTING CLOUDS MAY HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HRRR CEILING FORECAST SHOWS CLOUDS DISSIPATING AT THE
TAF SITES...BUT REMAINING IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE S/SE
KILX CWA AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND/OR VEER TO E/NE. GIVEN HRRR
FORECAST AND THE APPEARANCE THAT MUCH OF THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER
ACROSS IOWA IS DIURNAL/CELLULAR...HAVE SCATTERED CEILINGS AT
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. IF PARTIAL
CLEARING DOES INDEED OCCUR TONIGHT...IT WILL SHORT-LIVED...AS
HIGHLY NEGATIVE CU-RULE SUGGESTS BKN CEILINGS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 225 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. 2 AM
SURFACE MAP SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PART OF ILLINOIS...AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN. EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS IS FOUND ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHILE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN CWA THE PAST
FEW HOURS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND FRONT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS PACKAGE INVOLVES MID WEEK RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA TODAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...BUT QUIET WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SURFACE LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DECENT WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AND BRING HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ZIPPING AN
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE NOTED WITH TRENDS OF
SPREADING RAIN CHANCES INTO AREAS WEST OF I-55 BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. RATHER PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DOES
NOT BODE VERY WELL FOR DECENT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EAST...AND
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES THERE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHEN HIGHEST POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT WILL BE IN THE FORECAST.
LATE IN THE WEEK...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR DRY WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ051.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1037 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1037 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES S/SW INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 13Z HRRR SUGGESTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE SEEN SOME WEAK RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO THIS SEEMS TO BE A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A
BLOOMINGTON TO EFFINGHAM LINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY...AS
EVIDENCED BY CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STRONGLY NEGATIVE
CU-RULE. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND A COOL NORTHWESTERLY WIND...HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. A FEW LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF I-70. ZONE UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST...AS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO
THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MOSTLY
MVFR...WITH SOME TEMP SPOTS OF IFR. CIGS SLOWLY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARMING OF THE DAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GET INTO LESS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT. CHANCE FOR
SOME VC SH IN BMI CMI AND DEC...BUT LIKELY SO SCT THAT MENTION NOT
NEEDED AT THIS POINT. MAJOR CONCERN IS THE RIDGE MOVING OVHD IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...MAY
SEE FOG DEVELOP. GUIDANCE NOT REFLECTING THE POTENTIAL...BUT
BUFKIT FAVORING FOG. FOR NOW...WILL START A TREND...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THE XOVER TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 225 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. 2 AM
SURFACE MAP SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PART OF ILLINOIS...AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN. EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS IS FOUND ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHILE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN CWA THE PAST
FEW HOURS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND FRONT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS PACKAGE INVOLVES MID WEEK RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA TODAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...BUT QUIET WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SURFACE LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DECENT WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AND BRING HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ZIPPING AN
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE NOTED WITH TRENDS OF
SPREADING RAIN CHANCES INTO AREAS WEST OF I-55 BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. RATHER PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DOES
NOT BODE VERY WELL FOR DECENT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EAST...AND
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES THERE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHEN HIGHEST POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT WILL BE IN THE FORECAST.
LATE IN THE WEEK...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR DRY WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ051.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
228 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
308 PM CDT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THROUGH ITS 00Z EXPIRATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WI AT MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS MISSOURI. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL IL HAS DESTABILIZED
AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE UIN-PIA-PNT AT 19Z. SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG AND GENERALLY CONVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THAT REGION AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...AND EXPECT
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AIDED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS IA/MO PER GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
SCATTERED STORMS/SMALL CLUSTERS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 23-01Z OR SO...BEFORE DIURNAL DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY WITH SUNSET RESULTS IN DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KT AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...MAINLY
WEST WHERE A DCAPE AXIS OF 600-800 J/KG IS ANALYZED...WE COULD SEE A
FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS PRODUCE A LITTLE HAIL OR WIND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS A
FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...THOUGH ANALYSIS/GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER STORM PROPAGATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. SINCE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS ALREADY IN PLACE THERE...AND WITH THESE AREAS HAVING
RECEIVED BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHTS
MCS/S...ILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO RUN THROUGH ITS 00Z EXPIRATION.
COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR AND HEIGHT RISES SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WEAKER SECONDARY FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...WITH MOST GUIDANCE RUNS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MAKING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. GUIDANCE
REASONABLE IN DEPICTING TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY...AND MID
60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWER 60S LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO SPRAWL SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...
WHILE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY MID-WEEK. THIS RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY FOCUS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO IA/MN
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND BRING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE
DECAYING AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE MAKING IT THIS FAR
EAST. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER LOW AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. UPPER LOW FILLS AND OPENS UP DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOUTH
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FLOW NOT TERRIBLY STRONG. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
MANY DRY HOURS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 70S/NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD...THOUGH SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL KEEP WINDS
OFF THE LAKE PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH UPPER TROUGH AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SQUEEZE OUT QPF...THOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...70S...THOUGH ONSHORE WINDS OFF THE BIG
POND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS PROBABLE BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
* PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...NAMELY IN THE 11Z-15Z FRAME.
* WIND SHIFT TO NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER MI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DEPART
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS
ENVELOPING THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BEHIND A COLD FRONT. IN THE
IMMEDIATE POST FROPA AIRMASS UPSTREAM THERE ARE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...NAMELY IN NORTHERN WI. IF A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WERE TO UNFOLD...WHICH COULD
OCCUR ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF LAKE MI...THEN THAT COULD USHER
THOSE IFR CIGS CLOSE OR POSSIBLY TO ORD AND MDW BETWEEN MAINLY 11Z
AND 15Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 1500 FT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY BE SLOW TO SCATTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM OBS AND VAD WIND PROFILER DATA...AS SPEEDS OF 20 KT ARE
ALREADY OBSERVED AT 2K FT /AND LIKELY UNDER/. A LAKE BREEZE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP TODAY INFLUENCING MDW AND GYY AND LIKELY ORD AND
LATE IN THE DAY DPA. HAVE GONE WITH WIND DIRECTION NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 1500 FT OR LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRING AT ORD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND ITS TIMING
THIS AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
226 AM CDT
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IN THIS NEXT WEEK WILL BE
TODAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DEEPENING DEPARTING LOW
WILL EXPAND DOWN THE LAKE THROUGH MIDDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COOLER AIR PUSH AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OFFER NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS IN MAINLY THE 20-25 KT BALLPARK THOUGH CANT RULE OUT
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THE INDIANA NEAR SHORE WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY GIVEN THOSE GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
EXPAND IN TONIGHT ON THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. A WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE OVER THE LAKE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
308 PM CDT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THROUGH ITS 00Z EXPIRATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WI AT MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS MISSOURI. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL IL HAS DESTABILIZED
AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE UIN-PIA-PNT AT 19Z. SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG AND GENERALLY CONVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THAT REGION AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...AND EXPECT
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AIDED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS IA/MO PER GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
SCATTERED STORMS/SMALL CLUSTERS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 23-01Z OR SO...BEFORE DIURNAL DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY WITH SUNSET RESULTS IN DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KT AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...MAINLY
WEST WHERE A DCAPE AXIS OF 600-800 J/KG IS ANALYZED...WE COULD SEE A
FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS PRODUCE A LITTLE HAIL OR WIND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS A
FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...THOUGH ANALYSIS/GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER STORM PROPAGATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. SINCE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS ALREADY IN PLACE THERE...AND WITH THESE AREAS HAVING
RECEIVED BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHTS
MCS/S...ILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO RUN THROUGH ITS 00Z EXPIRATION.
COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR AND HEIGHT RISES SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WEAKER SECONDARY FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...WITH MOST GUIDANCE RUNS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MAKING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. GUIDANCE
REASONABLE IN DEPICTING TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY...AND MID
60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWER 60S LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO SPRAWL SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...
WHILE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY MID-WEEK. THIS RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY FOCUS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO IA/MN
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND BRING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE
DECAYING AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE MAKING IT THIS FAR
EAST. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER LOW AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. UPPER LOW FILLS AND OPENS UP DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOUTH
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FLOW NOT TERRIBLY STRONG. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
MANY DRY HOURS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 70S/NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD...THOUGH SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL KEEP WINDS
OFF THE LAKE PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH UPPER TROUGH AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SQUEEZE OUT QPF...THOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...70S...THOUGH ONSHORE WINDS OFF THE BIG
POND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS PROBABLE BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
* PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...NAMELY IN THE 11Z-15Z FRAME.
* WIND SHIFT TO NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER MI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DEPART
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS
ENVELOPING THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BEHIND A COLD FRONT. IN THE
IMMEDIATE POST FROPA AIRMASS UPSTREAM THERE ARE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...NAMELY IN NORTHERN WI. IF A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WERE TO UNFOLD...WHICH COULD
OCCUR ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF LAKE MI...THEN THAT COULD USHER
THOSE IFR CIGS CLOSE OR POSSIBLY TO ORD AND MDW BETWEEN MAINLY 11Z
AND 15Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 1500 FT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY BE SLOW TO SCATTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM OBS AND VAD WIND PROFILER DATA...AS SPEEDS OF 20 KT ARE
ALREADY OBSERVED AT 2K FT /AND LIKELY UNDER/. A LAKE BREEZE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP TODAY INFLUENCING MDW AND GYY AND LIKELY ORD AND
LATE IN THE DAY DPA. HAVE GONE WITH WIND DIRECTION NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 1500 FT OR LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRING AT ORD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND ITS TIMING
THIS AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
218 PM CDT
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND RAMP BACK UP INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT ON MONDAY WITH LAKE
BREEZES DEVELOPING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FRESHENING UP TO PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF
THE LAKE WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
830 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
ADJUSTED THE PRECIP. CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST
MODEL DATA. RUC/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LATE THIS
EVENING AS LIFT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA MOVES
EAST. POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
AS THE LIFT MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EVENING. AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC
FOR DEVELOP DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE
EXITING STORMS.
OTHERWISE LATEST SREF SHOWS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR FOG LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THIS
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RAINFALL FROM THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES. MORNING. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP AM
THINKING IT WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. AM ANTICIPATING LITTLE IF ANY
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH THE FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIR MASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW COOL TO MAKE IT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN STARTED OUT BEST AT JET LEVEL. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT
AT MID LEVELS. GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIFT GETTING BETTER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL MID LEVEL LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT REALLY DOES
NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR 06Z AND EVEN MORE SO BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT FOR AN EXPECTED GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THEY WANT TO
START PRECIPITATION WITH SOME START IN THE SOUTH AND GOING NORTH
AND VICE VERSA. TENDED TO BELIEVE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SOLUTION MORE
BUT THIS ALSO CAUSED ME TO BROAD BRUSH THE POPS. LOOKS TO BE ALL
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS
AND WHERE. SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD BUT HOW WET REMAINS IN QUESTION.
ENOUGH DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT I DID NOT GO ABOVE HIGH CHANCE.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
NO MATTER HOW WET IT GETS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW COOL TO MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. COOLEST SOLUTIONS...NAM/CANADIAN...KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
NOT READY TO MAKE THAT DRAMATIC OF A PLUNGE BUT DO SEE THE
POSSIBILITY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE
WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. DID LOWER MAXES BUT POSSIBILITY
IS THERE FOR MUCH MORE LOWERING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL AND JET LIFT
AROUND THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH IT DOES NOT WARM UP DURING THE DAY AND HOW FAST IT CLEARS
OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
DEFINITELY SEE A LOT OF 40S AROUND. DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED...DID TOSS IN SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING FOG. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STARTS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE WARMER BUT NOT
TOO MUCH SINCE WIND FIELD IS LIGHT DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH NOT BEING
TOO FAR AWAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AND SURFACE PATTERN/AIR
MASS REORGANIZES AND RECOVERS FROM PREVIOUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
STILL SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCE AND FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT FELT CONTENT IN
LEAVING IT DRY. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT FELT FINE WITH WHAT THE INIT GRIDS GAVE ME.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AS A
RESULT LEFT ALONE WHAT THE CRH INIT GRIDS GAVE ME. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE IT BEING A LITTLE COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE MINS...BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE TO MAKE ME
WANT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
CURRENT WINDS ARE AN ISSUE FOR KGLD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITE. CURRENTLY ISSUED
WINDS OUT OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION GUSTING TO 20KTS BUT ASOS HAS
BEEN SHOWING VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. ONCE THE TSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THIS PROBLEM SHOULD BE RESOLVED.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TSTORM APPEAR TO
BE BUILDING BACK INTO KGLD SO WENT WITH VCTS SINCE THINKING IS
THAT STORMS WILL NOT BUILD BACK FAR ENOUGH TO BE OVER THE TAF SITE
TO ISSUE A TEMPO GROUP. KMCK WILL HAVE TSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
CLOSER TO THE TAF SITE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z SO WENT
WITH A TEMPO GROUP TO INCLUDE STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. TSTORMS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED AS TO NOT CAUSE REDUCED
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH TAF SITES IN THE MORNING
DUE TO LOW STRATUS MOVING INTO THE AREA. KMCK SHOULD SEE CEILINGS
LOWER AROUND 09Z WHEN WINDS GO CALM THAT STICK AROUND UNTIL AROUND
18Z WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.
CEILINGS AT KGLD COULD LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 11Z AND LIFT AROUND
15Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER COLD
FROPA IN THE MORNING AROUND 11Z FOR KGLD AND AROUND 18Z FOR KMCK.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AGAIN TO THE ENE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
GUSTY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
739 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST OBS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE INDICATED GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS TO THE EAST. WAS INITIALLY THINKING
THE GUSTY WINDS WOULD MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...HOWEVER
OBSERVATIONS SHOW ONLY LIGHT WINDS WITH THE GUSTS REMAINING EAST
OF THE KS/CO BORDER. AM THINKING THE WINDS SHOULD DECLINE WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS STORMS MOVE FURTHER EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIR MASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW COOL TO MAKE IT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN STARTED OUT BEST AT JET LEVEL. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT
AT MID LEVELS. GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIFT GETTING BETTER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL MID LEVEL LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT REALLY DOES
NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR 06Z AND EVEN MORE SO BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT FOR AN EXPECTED GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THEY WANT TO
START PRECIPITATION WITH SOME START IN THE SOUTH AND GOING NORTH
AND VICE VERSA. TENDED TO BELIEVE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SOLUTION MORE
BUT THIS ALSO CAUSED ME TO BROAD BRUSH THE POPS. LOOKS TO BE ALL
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS
AND WHERE. SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD BUT HOW WET REMAINS IN QUESTION.
ENOUGH DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT I DID NOT GO ABOVE HIGH CHANCE.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
NO MATTER HOW WET IT GETS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW COOL TO MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. COOLEST SOLUTIONS...NAM/CANADIAN...KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
NOT READY TO MAKE THAT DRAMATIC OF A PLUNGE BUT DO SEE THE
POSSIBILITY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE
WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. DID LOWER MAXES BUT POSSIBILITY
IS THERE FOR MUCH MORE LOWERING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL AND JET LIFT
AROUND THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH IT DOES NOT WARM UP DURING THE DAY AND HOW FAST IT CLEARS
OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
DEFINITELY SEE A LOT OF 40S AROUND. DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED...DID TOSS IN SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING FOG. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STARTS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE WARMER BUT NOT
TOO MUCH SINCE WIND FIELD IS LIGHT DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH NOT BEING
TOO FAR AWAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AND SURFACE PATTERN/AIR
MASS REORGANIZES AND RECOVERS FROM PREVIOUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
STILL SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCE AND FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT FELT CONTENT IN
LEAVING IT DRY. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT FELT FINE WITH WHAT THE INIT GRIDS GAVE ME.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AS A
RESULT LEFT ALONE WHAT THE CRH INIT GRIDS GAVE ME. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE IT BEING A LITTLE COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE MINS...BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE TO MAKE ME
WANT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
CURRENT WINDS ARE AN ISSUE FOR KGLD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITE. CURRENTLY ISSUED
WINDS OUT OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION GUSTING TO 20KTS BUT ASOS HAS
BEEN SHOWING VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. ONCE THE TSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THIS PROBLEM SHOULD BE RESOLVED.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TSTORM APPEAR TO
BE BUILDING BACK INTO KGLD SO WENT WITH VCTS SINCE THINKING IS
THAT STORMS WILL NOT BUILD BACK FAR ENOUGH TO BE OVER THE TAF SITE
TO ISSUE A TEMPO GROUP. KMCK WILL HAVE TSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
CLOSER TO THE TAF SITE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z SO WENT
WITH A TEMPO GROUP TO INCLUDE STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. TSTORMS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED AS TO NOT CAUSE REDUCED
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH TAF SITES IN THE MORNING
DUE TO LOW STRATUS MOVING INTO THE AREA. KMCK SHOULD SEE CEILINGS
LOWER AROUND 09Z WHEN WINDS GO CALM THAT STICK AROUND UNTIL AROUND
18Z WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.
CEILINGS AT KGLD COULD LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 11Z AND LIFT AROUND
15Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER COLD
FROPA IN THE MORNING AROUND 11Z FOR KGLD AND AROUND 18Z FOR KMCK.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AGAIN TO THE ENE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
GUSTY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
623 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DRASTICALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES WHERE
STORMS CURRENTLY ARE AND WHERE THEY WILL MOVE OVER THE NEXT 3
HOURS. MODELS PLACE THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN MOVE IT EAST DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY SO AM
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THESE CURRENT STORMS WILL MOVE BEFORE
DWINDLING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF A CONCERN FOR WIND/RH MEETING RED
FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER. CONTACTED
THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO WHO BOTH SAID THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
LOOKING AT THE SURFACE MAP HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY WORKING
THEIR WAY INTO SHERMAN...WALLACE...AND GREELEY COUNTIES. NEAR THE
KS/CO BORDER THE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. HOWEVER
FURTHER WEST INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE SPOTTY. NEAR TERM MODELS DISAGREE AS
TO WHETHER THE GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE
LOCATIONS OR REMAIN GUSTY.
WITH THE REPORT OF NEAR CRITICAL FUELS FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES...WAS STRONGLY LEANING TOWARD ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITE. HOWEVER AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY THOSE COUNTIES ARE BARELY MEETING CRITERIA.
WITH THE ADDED UNCERTAINTY OF THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY HIGHLITE UNLESS
WINDS DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIR MASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW COOL TO MAKE IT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN STARTED OUT BEST AT JET LEVEL. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT
AT MID LEVELS. GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIFT GETTING BETTER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL MID LEVEL LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT REALLY DOES
NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR 06Z AND EVEN MORE SO BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT FOR AN EXPECTED GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THEY WANT TO
START PRECIPITATION WITH SOME START IN THE SOUTH AND GOING NORTH
AND VICE VERSA. TENDED TO BELIEVE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SOLUTION MORE
BUT THIS ALSO CAUSED ME TO BROAD BRUSH THE POPS. LOOKS TO BE ALL
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS
AND WHERE. SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD BUT HOW WET REMAINS IN QUESTION.
ENOUGH DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT I DID NOT GO ABOVE HIGH CHANCE.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
NO MATTER HOW WET IT GETS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW COOL TO MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. COOLEST SOLUTIONS...NAM/CANADIAN...KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
NOT READY TO MAKE THAT DRAMATIC OF A PLUNGE BUT DO SEE THE
POSSIBILITY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE
WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. DID LOWER MAXES BUT POSSIBILITY
IS THERE FOR MUCH MORE LOWERING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL AND JET LIFT
AROUND THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH IT DOES NOT WARM UP DURING THE DAY AND HOW FAST IT CLEARS
OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
DEFINITELY SEE A LOT OF 40S AROUND. DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED...DID TOSS IN SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING FOG. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STARTS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE WARMER BUT NOT
TOO MUCH SINCE WIND FIELD IS LIGHT DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH NOT BEING
TOO FAR AWAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AND SURFACE PATTERN/AIR
MASS REORGANIZES AND RECOVERS FROM PREVIOUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
STILL SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCE AND FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT FELT CONTENT IN
LEAVING IT DRY. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT FELT FINE WITH WHAT THE INIT GRIDS GAVE ME.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AS A
RESULT LEFT ALONE WHAT THE CRH INIT GRIDS GAVE ME. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE IT BEING A LITTLE COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE MINS...BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE TO MAKE ME
WANT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
CURRENT WINDS ARE AN ISSUE FOR KGLD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITE. CURRENTLY ISSUED
WINDS OUT OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION GUSTING TO 20KTS BUT ASOS HAS
BEEN SHOWING VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. ONCE THE TSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THIS PROBLEM SHOULD BE RESOLVED.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TSTORM APPEAR TO
BE BUILDING BACK INTO KGLD SO WENT WITH VCTS SINCE THINKING IS
THAT STORMS WILL NOT BUILD BACK FAR ENOUGH TO BE OVER THE TAF SITE
TO ISSUE A TEMPO GROUP. KMCK WILL HAVE TSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
CLOSER TO THE TAF SITE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z SO WENT
WITH A TEMPO GROUP TO INCLUDE STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. TSTORMS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED AS TO NOT CAUSE REDUCED
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH TAF SITES IN THE MORNING
DUE TO LOW STRATUS MOVING INTO THE AREA. KMCK SHOULD SEE CEILINGS
LOWER AROUND 09Z WHEN WINDS GO CALM THAT STICK AROUND UNTIL AROUND
18Z WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.
CEILINGS AT KGLD COULD LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 11Z AND LIFT AROUND
15Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER COLD
FROPA IN THE MORNING AROUND 11Z FOR KGLD AND AROUND 18Z FOR KMCK.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AGAIN TO THE ENE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
GUSTY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1158 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.AVIATION...
MUCH OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING ANVIL RAINS AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION INLAND BETWEEN THE COAST AND KMSY/KNEW. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS DRIVEN BY MESO-HIGH FORCING WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ORIENTED NE-SW FROM PADUCAH KY TO ABOUT JACKSON MS TO BEAUMONT TX.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. VFR CLOUD DECKS SHOULD
ALSO THIN TO VFR CAVOK LATE AFTERNOON. 24/RR
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
UPDATE...
LOOKING AT OVERALL RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY TO
REFLECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA AND THE WEAK
MESOHIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT
OVERALL HIGHER AMOUNT OF SKY COVER THAN INITALLY ANTICIPATED. THE
RAIN COOLED STABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO
ALLOWED FOR SLOWLY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AND ADJUSTED DAYTIME HIGHS
DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES. EXPECT TO SEE SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON
OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REGENERATION IN
AREAS NOT COMPLETELY WORKED OVER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THIS...KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND
ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECT ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT...WITH A DRIER WEATHER REGIME TAKING HOLD FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. 32
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
SHORT TERM...
MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 15
HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...NORTHERN LA THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS AND POINTS FURTHER
NORTH. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN SURGING SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME OUTFLOW DRIVEN
VS THE MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD BE MORE EASTERLY. HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE
ONLY MESO MODEL THAT HAS BEEN HAVING A GOOD INITIATION. IT SUGGESTS
A WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE LEADING EDGE MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS MS AND LA TOWARDS THE CWA. WHILE IN GENERAL THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE CASE...THERE/S STILL SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW CELLS TO BURST UP TO STRONG CATEGORY WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP POPS TODAY...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY
THAT SHOULD BE GOING ON THIS MORNING. AFTER IT DISSIPATES...
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
SHOULD BE REACHING THE COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS
FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE MORNING PERIOD SO THAT ONLY COASTAL PARISHES
AND OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE WORDING OF RAIN IN THE ZONES.
LONG TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MID WEAK AS UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS. SUBSEQUENTLY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON
THE RISE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 90 TO 93
DEGREE MARK FAIRLY EASILY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN
THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BREAKDOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AGAIN.
MEFFER
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS...THE OVERNIGHT AVIATION
PROBLEM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. SEEING SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THE FL015-FL025 RANGE...MOST NOTABLY AT KHUM...AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA BY 09Z AND REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. ONE OR TWO SITES WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE...PROBABLY AT KMCB.
THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE THE TIMING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENT MOVEMENT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT
340/17 KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO REACH KMCB AND KBTR
SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH
KMCB BEFORE THEN. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND FROM WHAT IS BEING
OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAD INTO EVENT WITH MENTION OF
VCSH/VCTS AND CARRY ABOUT A 4 HOUR WINDOW WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...WILL ONLY USE TEMPO GROUPS AT KMCB...KBTR AND KHDC. WILL
ADJUST LATER AS WE CAN BETTER ANTICIPATE TIMING AT TERMINALS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTHWARD
FRONT WILL MAKE IT ON SUNDAY BEFORE RUNNING OUT OF PUSH. WIND FIELD
WILL LIKELY BECOME RATHER WEAK TOWARD EVENING.
35
MARINE...
WIND FIELD IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THIS MORNING THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA TODAY...WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME EVEN LIGHTER. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE...BUT GENERALLY WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO BE MUCH ABOVE 10 KNOTS BEFORE
THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL EVENING DIURNAL
MAXIMUM. EVEN THEN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REQUIRE HEADLINES. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 81 66 88 63 / 50 20 10 10
BTR 82 68 89 67 / 50 20 10 10
ASD 83 70 90 69 / 70 30 10 10
MSY 82 73 89 72 / 70 30 10 10
GPT 84 71 89 69 / 70 30 10 10
PQL 86 71 88 68 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1017 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT OVERALL RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY TO
REFLECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA AND THE WEAK
MESOHIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT
OVERALL HIGHER AMOUNT OF SKY COVER THAN INITALLY ANTICIPATED. THE
RAIN COOLED STABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO
ALLOWED FOR SLOWLY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AND ADJUSTED DAYTIME HIGHS
DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES. EXPECT TO SEE SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON
OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REGENERATION IN
AREAS NOT COMPLETELY WORKED OVER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THIS...KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND
ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECT ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT...WITH A DRIER WEATHER REGIME TAKING HOLD FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. 32
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
SHORT TERM...
MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 15
HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...NORTHERN LA THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS AND POINTS FURTHER
NORTH. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN SURGING SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME OUTFLOW DRIVEN
VS THE MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD BE MORE EASTERLY. HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE
ONLY MESO MODEL THAT HAS BEEN HAVING A GOOD INITIATION. IT SUGGESTS
A WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE LEADING EDGE MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS MS AND LA TOWARDS THE CWA. WHILE IN GENERAL THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE CASE...THERE/S STILL SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW CELLS TO BURST UP TO STRONG CATEGORY WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP POPS TODAY...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY
THAT SHOULD BE GOING ON THIS MORNING. AFTER IT DISSIPATES...
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
SHOULD BE REACHING THE COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS
FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE MORNING PERIOD SO THAT ONLY COASTAL PARISHES
AND OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE WORDING OF RAIN IN THE ZONES.
LONG TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MID WEAK AS UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS. SUBSEQUENTLY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON
THE RISE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 90 TO 93
DEGREE MARK FAIRLY EASILY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN
THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BREAKDOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AGAIN.
MEFFER
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS...THE OVERNIGHT AVIATION
PROBLEM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. SEEING SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THE FL015-FL025 RANGE...MOST NOTABLY AT KHUM...AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA BY 09Z AND REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. ONE OR TWO SITES WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE...PROBABLY AT KMCB.
THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE THE TIMING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENT MOVEMENT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT
340/17 KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO REACH KMCB AND KBTR
SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH
KMCB BEFORE THEN. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND FROM WHAT IS BEING
OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAD INTO EVENT WITH MENTION OF
VCSH/VCTS AND CARRY ABOUT A 4 HOUR WINDOW WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...WILL ONLY USE TEMPO GROUPS AT KMCB...KBTR AND KHDC. WILL
ADJUST LATER AS WE CAN BETTER ANTICIPATE TIMING AT TERMINALS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTHWARD
FRONT WILL MAKE IT ON SUNDAY BEFORE RUNNING OUT OF PUSH. WIND FIELD
WILL LIKELY BECOME RATHER WEAK TOWARD EVENING.
35
MARINE...
WIND FIELD IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THIS MORNING THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA TODAY...WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME EVEN LIGHTER. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE...BUT GENERALLY WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO BE MUCH ABOVE 10 KNOTS BEFORE
THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL EVENING DIURNAL
MAXIMUM. EVEN THEN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REQUIRE HEADLINES. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 81 66 88 63 / 50 20 10 10
BTR 82 68 89 67 / 50 20 10 10
ASD 83 70 90 69 / 70 30 10 10
MSY 82 73 89 72 / 70 30 10 10
GPT 84 71 89 69 / 70 30 10 10
PQL 86 71 88 68 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...
MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 15
HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...NORTHERN LA THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS AND POINTS FURTHER
NORTH. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN SURGING SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME OUTFLOW DRIVEN
VS THE MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD BE MORE EASTERLY. HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE
ONLY MESO MODEL THAT HAS BEEN HAVING A GOOD INITIATION. IT SUGGESTS
A WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE LEADING EDGE MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS MS AND LA TOWARDS THE CWA. WHILE IN GENERAL THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE CASE...THERE/S STILL SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW CELLS TO BURST UP TO STRONG CATEGORY WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP POPS TODAY...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY
THAT SHOULD BE GOING ON THIS MORNING. AFTER IT DISSIPATES...
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
SHOULD BE REACHING THE COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS
FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE MORNING PERIOD SO THAT ONLY COASTAL PARISHES
AND OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE WORDING OF RAIN IN THE ZONES.
.LONG TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MID WEAK AS UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS. SUBSEQUENTLY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON
THE RISE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 90 TO 93
DEGREE MARK FAIRLY EASILY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN
THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BREAKDOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AGAIN.
MEFFER
&&.AVIATION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS...THE OVERNIGHT AVIATION
PROBLEM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. SEEING SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THE FL015-FL025 RANGE...MOST NOTABLY AT KHUM...AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA BY 09Z AND REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. ONE OR TWO SITES WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE...PROBABLY AT KMCB.
THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE THE TIMING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENT MOVEMENT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT
340/17 KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO REACH KMCB AND KBTR
SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH
KMCB BEFORE THEN. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND FROM WHAT IS BEING
OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAD INTO EVENT WITH MENTION OF
VCSH/VCTS AND CARRY ABOUT A 4 HOUR WINDOW WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...WILL ONLY USE TEMPO GROUPS AT KMCB...KBTR AND KHDC. WILL
ADJUST LATER AS WE CAN BETTER ANTICIPATE TIMING AT TERMINALS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTHWARD
FRONT WILL MAKE IT ON SUNDAY BEFORE RUNNING OUT OF PUSH. WIND FIELD
WILL LIKELY BECOME RATHER WEAK TOWARD EVENING.
35
&&
.MARINE...
WIND FIELD IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THIS MORNING THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA TODAY...WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME EVEN LIGHTER. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE...BUT GENERALLY WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO BE MUCH ABOVE 10 KNOTS BEFORE
THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL EVENING DIURNAL
MAXIMUM. EVEN THEN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REQUIRE HEADLINES. 35
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 66 88 63 / 60 20 10 10
BTR 90 68 89 67 / 60 20 10 10
ASD 88 70 90 69 / 60 30 10 10
MSY 88 73 89 72 / 60 30 10 10
GPT 87 71 89 69 / 50 30 10 10
PQL 87 71 88 68 / 50 30 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VSBLE SATL IMGRY AND SFC OBS SHOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF CWA. TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 80S IN THE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
MODIFIED 12Z KIAD SOUNDING GIVES ML CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF
1250-1500 J/KG. THE RR QUAD OF H4 JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE THE NW
PORTION OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A LIFTING MECHANISM TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SVR WX EXISTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COINCIDING WITH PEAK INSOLATION.
HAVED NUDGED TEMPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
DUE TO BKN-OVC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CWA TONIGHT. MODELS NOT YET CONSISTENT ON ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESS BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH GFS HAVING THE FRONT
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...ECMWF (12Z SUN) THE SLOWEST...AND THE
NAM IN BETWEEN. WILL CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS EAST OF I-95 CORRIDOR. LOW TEMPS
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 70S
IN URBAN BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
FROPA FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BECOME MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE STORM MOTION AND HELP LEVITATE
HEAVY RAIN THAT WE MAY SEE SUNDAY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS WILL
STILL BE SATURATED WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 1.5 SO ISOLATED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL POSE A THREAT FOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITHIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW BEHIND FROPA WILL DROP DEWPTS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINENTAL AIR WILL BRING RELIEF
OF RECENT WARM SPELL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
E-SE FLOW WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. REGION SHOULD STAY DRY
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A
UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MAY LEAD TO CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BRING IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINALS. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY TO
REFINE TIMING AND IMPACT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. WINDS GENERALLY SW
10-15KT...POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AT IAD-DCA-BWI-MTN MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW BY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON 00Z MODEL RUN IS A LITTLE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...AND WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SWLY THAN
SOUTHERLY...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT CHANNELING. AS SUCH...SCA
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN AND
HAIL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW BY MONDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST ENTERS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SERN
OHIO IS APPROACHING THE WV BORDER AS OF 0730Z...AND MAY IMPACT
EASTERN WV BY MID-MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. HRRR ALSO
INDICATES POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THIS LINE AND MOVING INTO EASTERN WV OR WRN VA EARLIER IN THE
MORNING...BUT SO FAR THE MODEL HAS LARGELY OVERDONE THIS PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. NO LONGER EXPECTING PRE-DAWN PATCHY FOG...AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE MOSTLY AROUND 10 DEGREES AND PERSISTENT SLY FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING ENOUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT STILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF
THE AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IN
SPITE OF IT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY LATE
MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AS
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DYNAMICS
LOOK STRONGER ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS THAN PREVIOUSLY...AND SPC HAS
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. PWATS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS RUNNING AROUND 1.5 TO 2
INCHES...SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST HIGHS WEIGHT MOST HEAVILY ON MOS BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOT YET CONSISTENT
ON ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH GFS HAVING THE
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...ECMWF (12Z SUN) THE SLOWEST...AND
THE NAM IN BETWEEN. WILL CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS EAST OF I-95 CORRIDOR. LOW
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW
70S IN URBAN BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
FROPA FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BECOME MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE STORM MOTION AND HELP LEVITATE
HEAVY RAIN THAT WE MAY SEE SUNDAY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS WILL
STILL BE SATURATED WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 1.5 SO ISOLATED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL POSE A THREAT FOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITHIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW BEHIND FROPA WILL DROP DEWPTS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINENTAL AIR WILL BRING RELIEF
OF RECENT WARM SPELL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
E-SE FLOW WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. REGION SHOULD STAY DRY
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A
UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MAY LEAD TO CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING IMPACTS
TO THE TERMINALS. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY TO REFINE TIMING AND IMPACT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. WINDS
GENERALLY SW 10-15KT...POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AT IAD-DCA-BWI-MTN MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW BY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY WITH
GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SCA IS SCHEDULED TO EXPAND TO
ALL WATERS AT 14Z THIS MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT ON 00Z MODEL RUN
IS A LITTLE LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WIND DIRECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SWLY THAN SOUTHERLY...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT
CHANNELING. AS SUCH...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL...BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN AND
HAIL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE NW BY MONDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530>533-535>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HAS/KCS
MARINE...HAS/KCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NW ONTARIO INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING OVER
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NW LOWER MI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN OVER
ERN UPPER MI THAT WAS SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS ALSO LINGERED OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER LAKE HURON AND A RIDGE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS SUPPORTED BRISK NRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MI. UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALSO SUPPORTED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE. MUCH COLDER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
DRYING WILL SPREAD THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM
CLOUDS TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING TREND MAY BE SLOWER. ANY
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY MID OR LATE MORNING
WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE...WITH N FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-1C...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF THE CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO LOWER 30S...NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD ALSO SEE READINGS INTO THE UPPER
20S. SO...A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. A VORTEX DESCENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED TO GRAZE NE LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH PCPN AND CLOUDS WITH
THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE NE OF THE CWA...THE VORTEX
WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF AS FAR AS IN THE WEST.
LOOK FOR MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S MIN TEMPS OVER THE EAST HALF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE AREA BEING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WITH DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAND AREA.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR
AND FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. WITH
THE SUNSHINE...EXPECT MIXING TO AROUND 850-825MB. BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL ONLY AROUND 2C WEST AND -1C EAST...BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AND ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES DUE
TO LAKE BREEZES. THE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION FOR MONDAY WILL BE LOW
RH VALUES. ML DEWPOINTS FROM THE MODELS INDICATE VALUES IN THE MID
20S OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND POTENTIALLY THE UPPER TEENS IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT. WITH THAT CONSISTENCY AND THE TRENDS IN THE
MAV/MET...HAVE LOWERED OUR DEWPOINTS A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES. THIS
PRODUCES RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT OVER THE INLAND AREAS...WITH
THE LOWEST VALUES OVER THE WEST. FORTUNATELY...THE WET WEATHER
RECENTLY...GREEN UP WELL ON IT/S WAY OR EVEN DONE...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REDUCES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EVEN WITH 10-15KT WINDS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO
A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF GOING
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES AND HAVE LOWS AROUND 30 OVER THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 4 ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S...SO
WE WILL BE CLOSE BUT LIKELY STAY ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FROST FOR MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
HIGHLIGHTING IN HWO.
AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH ON TUESDAY...AS
IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE EAST...HAVE LOWERED
TD VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE EAST HALF. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANOTHER LOW RH DAY...BUT AS WITH MONDAY...FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE
LIMITED WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS.
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME CLOSE ENOUGH
TO START INFLUENCING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
LATEST IDEA FROM THE GFS/ECMWF IS THAT MUCH OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN
SLIDE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH SLIDES FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK...SO
WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE GENERAL LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH
THE BEST FORCING FOCUSED OVER WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA. SINCE THE BULK OF THE
FORCING IS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE RAIN STAYS IN
WISCONSIN. THUNDER CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO NON-EXISTANT...AS
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE ZERO AND MUCAPE VALUES STAY BELOW
100 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY PUSHES DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRIES TO SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND
THE POTENTIAL THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE...IT/S ARRIVAL MAY BE
DELAYED SOME. TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW
NORMAL TREND...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-60S AND THE COOLEST
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND FALLING TO AROUND 8KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT
/STRONGEST AT CMX/. EXCLUDING INITIALLY AT SAW...VFR CEILINGS AND
VIS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
INCREASED NW WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL SHIFT ENE INTO QUEBEC BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO. AS A RESULT...NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY. RIDGING WILL
EXTEND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WHICH WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW WILL SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY...WHILE
THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NW ONTARIO INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING OVER
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NW LOWER MI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN OVER
ERN UPPER MI THAT WAS SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS ALSO LINGERED OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER LAKE HURON AND A RIDGE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS SUPPORTED BRISK NRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MI. UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALSO SUPPORTED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE. MUCH COLDER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
DRYING WILL SPREAD THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM
CLOUDS TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING TREND MAY BE SLOWER. ANY
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY MID OR LATE MORNING
WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE...WITH N FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-1C...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF THE CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO LOWER 30S...NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD ALSO SEE READINGS INTO THE UPPER
20S. SO...A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. A VORTEX DESCENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED TO GRAZE NE LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH PCPN AND CLOUDS WITH
THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE NE OF THE CWA...THE VORTEX
WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF AS FAR AS IN THE WEST.
LOOK FOR MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S MIN TEMPS OVER THE EAST HALF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE AREA BEING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WITH DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAND AREA.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR
AND FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. WITH
THE SUNSHINE...EXPECT MIXING TO AROUND 850-825MB. BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL ONLY AROUND 2C WEST AND -1C EAST...BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AND ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES DUE
TO LAKE BREEZES. THE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION FOR MONDAY WILL BE LOW
RH VALUES. ML DEWPOINTS FROM THE MODELS INDICATE VALUES IN THE MID
20S OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND POTENTIALLY THE UPPER TEENS IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT. WITH THAT CONSISTENCY AND THE TRENDS IN THE
MAV/MET...HAVE LOWERED OUR DEWPOINTS A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES. THIS
PRODUCES RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT OVER THE INLAND AREAS...WITH
THE LOWEST VALUES OVER THE WEST. FORTUNATELY...THE WET WEATHER
RECENTLY...GREEN UP WELL ON IT/S WAY OR EVEN DONE...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REDUCES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EVEN WITH 10-15KT WINDS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO
A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF GOING
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES AND HAVE LOWS AROUND 30 OVER THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 4 ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S...SO
WE WILL BE CLOSE BUT LIKELY STAY ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FROST FOR MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
HIGHLIGHTING IN HWO.
AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH ON TUESDAY...AS
IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE EAST...HAVE LOWERED
TD VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE EAST HALF. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANOTHER LOW RH DAY...BUT AS WITH MONDAY...FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE
LIMITED WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS.
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME CLOSE ENOUGH
TO START INFLUENCING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
LATEST IDEA FROM THE GFS/ECMWF IS THAT MUCH OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN
SLIDE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH SLIDES FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK...SO
WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE GENERAL LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH
THE BEST FORCING FOCUSED OVER WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA. SINCE THE BULK OF THE
FORCING IS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE RAIN STAYS IN
WISCONSIN. THUNDER CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO NON-EXISTANT...AS
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE ZERO AND MUCAPE VALUES STAY BELOW
100 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY PUSHES DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRIES TO SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND
THE POTENTIAL THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE...IT/S ARRIVAL MAY BE
DELAYED SOME. TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW
NORMAL TREND...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-60S AND THE COOLEST
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INFLUX OF SHALLOW
COOL...MOIST AIR ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY N WINDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
NW-SE EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
HIGH PRES BUIDLING TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THIS HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...AND THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE IMPROVING WILL
BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL SHIFT ENE INTO QUEBEC BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO. AS A RESULT...NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY. RIDGING WILL
EXTEND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WHICH WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW WILL SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY...WHILE
THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NW ONTARIO INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING OVER
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NW LOWER MI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN OVER
ERN UPPER MI THAT WAS SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS ALSO LINGERED OVER CNTRL UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER LAKE HURON AND A RIDGE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS SUPPORTED BRISK NRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MI. UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALSO SUPPORTED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE. MUCH COLDER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
DRYING WILL SPREAD THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM
CLOUDS TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING TREND MAY BE SLOWER. ANY
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY MID OR LATE MORNING
WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE...WITH N FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-1C...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF THE CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO LOWER 30S...NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD ALSO SEE READINGS INTO THE UPPER
20S. SO...A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. A VORTEX DESCENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED TO GRAZE NE LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH PCPN AND CLOUDS WITH
THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE NE OF THE CWA...THE VORTEX
WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF AS FAR AS IN THE WEST.
LOOK FOR MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S MIN TEMPS OVER THE EAST HALF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE AREA BEING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WITH DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAND AREA.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR
AND FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. WITH
THE SUNSHINE...EXPECT MIXING TO AROUND 850-825MB. BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL ONLY AROUND 2C WEST AND -1C EAST...BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AND ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES DUE
TO LAKE BREEZES. THE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION FOR MONDAY WILL BE LOW
RH VALUES. ML DEWPOINTS FROM THE MODELS INDICATE VALUES IN THE MID
20S OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND POTENTIALLY THE UPPER TEENS IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT. WITH THAT CONSISTENCY AND THE TRENDS IN THE
MAV/MET...HAVE LOWERED OUR DEWPOINTS A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES. THIS
PRODUCES RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT OVER THE INLAND AREAS...WITH
THE LOWEST VALUES OVER THE WEST. FORTUNATELY...THE WET WEATHER
RECENTLY...GREEN UP WELL ON IT/S WAY OR EVEN DONE...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REDUCES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EVEN WITH 10-15KT WINDS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO
A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF GOING
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES AND HAVE LOWS AROUND 30 OVER THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 4 ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S...SO
WE WILL BE CLOSE BUT LIKELY STAY ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FROST FOR MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
HIGHLIGHTING IN HWO.
AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH ON TUESDAY...AS
IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE EAST...HAVE LOWERED
TD VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE EAST HALF. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANOTHER LOW RH DAY...BUT AS WITH MONDAY...FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE
LIMITED WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS.
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME CLOSE ENOUGH
TO START INFLUENCING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
LATEST IDEA FROM THE GFS/ECMWF IS THAT MUCH OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN
SLIDE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH SLIDES FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK...SO
WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE GENERAL LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH
THE BEST FORCING FOCUSED OVER WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA. SINCE THE BULK OF THE
FORCING IS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE RAIN STAYS IN
WISCONSIN. THUNDER CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO NON-EXISTANT...AS
SHOWALTER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE ZERO AND MUCAPE VALUES STAY BELOW
100 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY PUSHES DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRIES TO SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND
THE POTENTIAL THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE...IT/S ARRIVAL MAY BE
DELAYED SOME. TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW
NORMAL TREND...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-60S AND THE COOLEST
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH AN INFLUX OF SHALLOW
COOL...MOIST AIR ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY N WINDS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
NW-SE LATE TNGT AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF HI PRES
BLDG TOWARD UPR MI. AS THIS HI MOVES OVHD ON SUN...CONDITIONS WL
IMPROVE TO VFR...AND THE GUSTY WINDS WL DIMINISH.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL SHIFT ENE INTO QUEBEC BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO. AS A RESULT...NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY. RIDGING WILL
EXTEND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WHICH WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW WILL SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY...WHILE
THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
656 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE DEPICTED ON 0.5 REFLECTIVITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE...FROM WILLMAR TO
JUST WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INDUCED CONVECTION
HAS SLOWLY BEEN ERODING IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE
19Z. HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF PLACEMENT OF SAID SYSTEM...BUT
HAS LACKED ACCURACY ON EROSION. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATE ENTIRE AREA
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND DISINTEGRATE.
THROTTLED BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING WITH DRYING TREND ANTICIPATED
AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TREKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
HALF OF MN ...PER THE GFS40 305K ANAL. MUCH OF MN FA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM 04/06Z-12Z IN
RESPONSE TO PROXIMITY OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 250MB 90KT SPEED MAX
NOTED ENTERING WEST CENTRAL AND NW MN THIS TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS UPGLIDE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON GFS...NAM80 ALSO BRINGS IN
MODERATE UPGLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM 12Z-18Z ON TUE. WITH THAT
SAID ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR FROM
TUESDAY MORNING INTO LATE TUESDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST PRECIP PROGGED
TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS. SE FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TOMORROW AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AS INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL GLIDE THROUGH MN TUE NIGHT INTO WED ON
ITS WAY INTO NRN WI...PUSHING ALONG ITS SFC REFLECTION LOW PRES
CENTER. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE GREAT LAKES MIDDAY WED...BUT A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
DAY THU. THOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WILL NEED TO KEEP SHWRS IN THE FCST GOING INTO THU UNTIL
THIS SYSTEM AS A WHOLE EXITS THE REGION. A PRONOUNCED SLY PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH QPF/S IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND EVEN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
SLANTWISE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO ENHANCE WIDE-SCALE LIFT.
DESPITE THE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE IN THE AREA...INSTABILITY DOES NOT
APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY COMPACT SO
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEFINITIVE LACK OF EVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN THE FCST BUT ITS COVERAGE WILL BE
QUITE MEAGER. WITH THE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS AND THE ZONAL FLOW
OF THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING ACROSS...THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO
AIRMASS CHANGE...MEANING THAT THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE UPR 50S
TO LWR 60S WHILE LOWS HOLD IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CLEARING-OUT PERIOD WILL ENVELOP
THE AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRI EVE AS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE BUT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS...NUDGING INTO THE
UPR 60S FOR FRI. HOWEVER...THE IMPACT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE BRIEF
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPS IN FROM CANADA...BRINGING A
CONGLOMERATION OF LOW PRES CENTERS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
THRU THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PLUMES OF MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS
TROUGH...MAKING FOR ANOTHER EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HIGHS
AROUND 70. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA LATE SUN INTO
MON...THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE APPRECIABLE WARMUP
AND DRYING OUT PERIOD IS COMING FOR THE EARLY-TO-MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOR GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT
TO STATE AS SUCH WITH GREATER CERTAINTY SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
THE MODELS EVOLVE THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
VARIOUS MODELS INDICATING AREAS OF -RA/-SHRA MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT AND
WEAKENING. LATEST SREF 1 HOUR THUNDERSTORM FCST SHOWS THIS TREND
AS WELL...AND WEAKENS IT CONSIDERABLY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
TUESDAY. WILL MENTION VCTS AT KRWF AFTER 12Z FOR THIS POSSIBILITY
OF REMNANT THUNDER IN THE MORNING SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR NOW. CEILINGS SLOWLY DROPPING TO MVFR OVER THE MN
SITES BY LATE MORNING AND PERHAPS DROPPING TO IFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. KEPT THEM LOW MVFR FOR NOW.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
ACROSS MN PORTION OF THE AREA.
KMSP...
SPRINKLES EXITING THE AREA NOW. SOME LEFTOVER MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TUESDAY. WILL MENTION MVFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN RAIN AREA MOVES IN. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO LOW END MVFR BY EVENING AND SOME CHANCE OF IFR AS WELL.
THUNDER THREAT SMALL SO LEFT THAT OUT PER SREF 1 HR THUNDER PROGS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BECAME A BIT GUSTY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS -SHRA BECOMING IFR. ISOLD TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE FIELD. WINDS SE 12-15KTS GUSTS TO 23-25 KTS.
WED...MVFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 5KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WIND E 6-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-8KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
120 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS HIGH WAS LOCATED
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD BRINGING SOME MUCH ANTICIPATED DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS H850 TEMPS
LINGER IN THE 2 TO 4C RANGE. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING UP TO AROUND 800MB WITH SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE USED THE MIXDOWN TOOL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ANTICIPATION OF
SOME FLAT CU DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SETTING THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... KEEPING
THINGS A BIT COOL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO REAL SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES... BUT IN
GENERAL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. ONE UPPER WAVE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WITH WEAK RIDGING FOR
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY... THEN AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLOWLY WORK
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WE MOVE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW POPS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND START TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
NORTHERN END OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE DAKOTAS
ACROSS MICHIGAN. A LOOK AT 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E AND BEST
LIFTED INDICES SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY LAGGING THE
INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN... SO SHOULD SEE SHOWER
CHANCES AT FIRST GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK
GIVEN GENERALLY MEAGER INSTABILITY UP INTO OUR AREA... WITH THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... THERE
IS VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MIGRATING ACROSS ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW... SO SHOULD INSTABILITY MANAGE
TO BE BETTER THAN THE FEW HUNDRED J/KG ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND
GFS THEN THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERNS. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
SHEAR... BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER... LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
OUTPACE WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY...
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL. MAIN CONCERN IF
INSTABILITY WERE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG AND BETTER ALIGNED WITH SHEAR
WOULD BE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL... BUT AT THIS POINT
THINGS DON/T APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER TOO WELL FOR THAT.
PCPN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE AND FILLING SURFACE LOW SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA. A BIT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... WHICH
SHOULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CHANCES FOR ANY PCPN OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE ADVERTISED COOL 700-500MB TEMPERATURES AND
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT LAPSE RATES WITH ANY SUNSHINE... WE COULD
CERTAINLY WIND UP WITH SOME SHRA IF THERE ISN/T SUFFICIENT RIDGING
AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. SO... WENT WITH LOWER OR NO POPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FARTHER NORTH WHERE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT... BUT KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH. DIDN/T INCLUDE ANYTHING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT... SINCE
IT SEEMS ANY POTENTIAL WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. BY SATURDAY...
WE MAY SEE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN START TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST AS WE ONCE AGAIN GET ONTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH AND START TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
LARGE AREA OF LOW VFR STRATO-CU NOTED OVER PORTION OF WEST
CENTRAL WI AND OVER LARGE SECTION OF WEST CENTRAL MN. EXPECT
BOTH AREAS TO MOSTLY DISINTEGRATE BY 00Z AS HEATING WANES.
MODERATE NW FLOW WILL ALSO FADE BY THE EARLY EVENING AT ALL
SITES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION INTO
MON/12Z TIME FRAME. NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER WESTERN
SODAK THIS TIME FRAME...AND THEN TREK INTO WESTERN NE BY 04/00Z.
CIRRUS SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD MOST AIRPORT SITES BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MN GENERATES SCT -SHRA NEAR KAXN BY 05/00Z. LIGHT SE
FLOW WILL BE ENCOUNTERED OVER SOUTHERN MN MONDAY
MORNING...INCREASING AS SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF STORM
SYSTEM DURING THE AFTN. WEST CENTRAL TAF SITES WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VRBL BECOMING LIGHT SE BY END OF PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
THROUGH END OF PERIOD ALL LOCATIONS.
KMSP...
HEATING INDUCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD BECOME BKN BETWEEN 19-22Z
...WITH FAIRLY RAPID BREAKUP ANTICIPATED BY 23Z. MDT SE FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT BY LATE AFTN AND RETURNS BY 03/16Z. MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK AHEAD OF APPROACHING CYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
BE ENCOUNTERED LATE IN PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH
END OF PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWER VCNTY POSSIBLE NEAR 04/06Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH -SHRA LATE. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
TUE...MVFR WITH -SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS ESE AT 10G20KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NNE AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND E 6-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AJZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
451 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS HIGH WAS LOCATED
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD BRINGING SOME MUCH ANTICIPATED DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS H850 TEMPS
LINGER IN THE 2 TO 4C RANGE. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING UP TO AROUND 800MB WITH SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE USED THE MIXDOWN TOOL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ANTICIPATION OF
SOME FLAT CU DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SETTING THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... KEEPING
THINGS A BIT COOL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO REAL SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES... BUT IN
GENERAL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. ONE UPPER WAVE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WITH WEAK RIDGING FOR
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY... THEN AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLOWLY WORK
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WE MOVE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW POPS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND START TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
NORTHERN END OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE DAKOTAS
ACROSS MICHIGAN. A LOOK AT 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E AND BEST
LIFTED INDICES SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY LAGGING THE
INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN... SO SHOULD SEE SHOWER
CHANCES AT FIRST GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK
GIVEN GENERALLY MEAGER INSTABILITY UP INTO OUR AREA... WITH THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... THERE
IS VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MIGRATING ACROSS ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW... SO SHOULD INSTABILITY MANAGE
TO BE BETTER THAN THE FEW HUNDRED J/KG ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND
GFS THEN THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERNS. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
SHEAR... BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER... LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
OUTPACE WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY...
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL. MAIN CONCERN IF
INSTABILITY WERE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG AND BETTER ALIGNED WITH SHEAR
WOULD BE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL... BUT AT THIS POINT
THINGS DON/T APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER TOO WELL FOR THAT.
PCPN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE AND FILLING SURFACE LOW SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA. A BIT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... WHICH
SHOULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CHANCES FOR ANY PCPN OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE ADVERTISED COOL 700-500MB TEMPERATURES AND
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT LAPSE RATES WITH ANY SUNSHINE... WE COULD
CERTAINLY WIND UP WITH SOME SHRA IF THERE ISN/T SUFFICIENT RIDGING
AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. SO... WENT WITH LOWER OR NO POPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FARTHER NORTH WHERE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT... BUT KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH. DIDN/T INCLUDE ANYTHING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT... SINCE
IT SEEMS ANY POTENTIAL WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. BY SATURDAY...
WE MAY SEE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN START TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST AS WE ONCE AGAIN GET ONTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH AND START TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
MVFR STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE IT PUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ONCE CONDITIONS
BECOME VFR...EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST...BUT
THEY WILL BE VFR. NNW WINDS WILL GO CALM OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK
UP...WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 4500FT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO CALM
OVERNIGHT AND BE SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH -SHRA LATE. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
TUE...MVFR WITH -SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS ESE AT 10G20KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NNE AT 10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS HIGH WAS LOCATED
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD BRINGING SOME MUCH ANTICIPATED DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS H850 TEMPS
LINGER IN THE 2 TO 4C RANGE. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING UP TO AROUND 800MB WITH SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE USED THE MIXDOWN TOOL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ANTICIPATION OF
SOME FLAT CU DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SETTING THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... KEEPING
THINGS A BIT COOL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO REAL SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES... BUT IN
GENERAL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. ONE UPPER WAVE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WITH WEAK RIDGING FOR
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY... THEN AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLOWLY WORK
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WE MOVE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW POPS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND START TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
NORTHERN END OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE DAKOTAS
ACROSS MICHIGAN. A LOOK AT 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E AND BEST
LIFTED INDICES SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY LAGGING THE
INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN... SO SHOULD SEE SHOWER
CHANCES AT FIRST GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK
GIVEN GENERALLY MEAGER INSTABILITY UP INTO OUR AREA... WITH THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... THERE
IS VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MIGRATING ACROSS ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW... SO SHOULD INSTABILITY MANAGE
TO BE BETTER THAN THE FEW HUNDRED J/KG ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND
GFS THEN THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERNS. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
SHEAR... BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER... LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
OUTPACE WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY...
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL. MAIN CONCERN IF
INSTABILITY WERE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG AND BETTER ALIGNED WITH SHEAR
WOULD BE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL... BUT AT THIS POINT
THINGS DON/T APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER TOO WELL FOR THAT.
PCPN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE AND FILLING SURFACE LOW SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA. A BIT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... WHICH
SHOULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CHANCES FOR ANY PCPN OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE ADVERTISED COOL 700-500MB TEMPERATURES AND
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT LAPSE RATES WITH ANY SUNSHINE... WE COULD
CERTAINLY WIND UP WITH SOME SHRA IF THERE ISN/T SUFFICIENT RIDGING
AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. SO... WENT WITH LOWER OR NO POPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FARTHER NORTH WHERE RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT... BUT KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH. DIDN/T INCLUDE ANYTHING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT... SINCE
IT SEEMS ANY POTENTIAL WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. BY SATURDAY...
WE MAY SEE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN START TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST AS WE ONCE AGAIN GET ONTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH AND START TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
CIGS ARE IMPROVING AREAWIDE AS DRIER BEGINS TO FILTER IN. SHOULD
SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM CNTRL MN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WRN WI
OVERNIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.
KMSP...CONDS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME ARE VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE VFR CIGS...SO EXPECT CONDS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
QUICKLY AFTER TAF PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY...THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
TUE...MVFR WITH TSRA LIKELY. WINDS SE AT 10-15G20KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS FORMING IN A LINE (OR TWO)
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCT LIFTED INDICES SHOWED MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 19Z MSL DATA SHOWED A SHARP DEWPOINT
GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO IN WHICH
DEWPOINTS GO FROM 50S IN WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO 20S
IN EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR DENVER AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO NORTHWEST
OF LAMAR. THERE WAS A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO EASTERN WYOMING. THE LATTER
BOUNDARY HAD SOME...APPARENTLY HIGH BASED...CUMULIFORM CLOUDS ALONG
IT. IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG BAROCLINIC REGION WAS
INDICATED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
EASTERN WYOMING EXTENDING FROM A MATURING CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
CONVECTION CHANCES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG
AND NEAR THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...A SUBSTANTIAL CAP
REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...THUS STORMS MAY NOT BEGIN TO REALLY
GET GOING UNTIL AFTER STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
/ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW/ ARRIVES. THERE IS
AN AREA OF AGITATED CU DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...BUT THUS FAR HAVE STRUGGLED TO FULLY DEVELOP AS TD/T
SPREADS IN SOME CASES ARE GREATER THAN 50F. CURRENT THINKING IS AS
THE CHALLENGED DEVELOPMENT WORKS EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...STORMS COULD DEVELOP. MESOANALYSIS FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA DOES SUPPORT A MENTION OF SEVERE AS 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM
EFFECTIVE SHEAR RESIDES AND SBCAPE EXCEEDS 1.0KJ/KG. WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS. THEREAFTER...CONVECTION CHANCES BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT MOST NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT A COMPLEX WILL
CONGEAL AND SPREAD EAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE THIS
HANDLED WELL...THUS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT HIGHS SOME ON
TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY
ON TUESDAY...WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BRING FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
CONTINUATION OF A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS KANSAS...RETURN FLOW LIFTS UP ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE 300-305K ISENTROPIC LAYER. THE AIR BEING
FORCED IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY SATURATED AND FOLDING IN THE THETA-E
FIELDS WOULD INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE
RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (THETA-E FOLDING AND ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES
-2C TO -4C)...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE FRONT THEN SAGS
FARTHER SOUTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER
18Z...THUS SHIFTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD
WITH IT.
WITH THE FRONT WELL INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. RETURN FLOW ON THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
A FRONT FORMING ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS KANSAS SUNDAY
EVENING. THAT SCENARIO WOULD CONTINUE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
THE RUC SUGGESTS A BELT OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AND DISSIPATING AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. THE STRATUS WOULD DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WEST AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
CIGS FL040 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
RAP/NAM ARE HINTING THAT AS WEAK FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...SOME OF
THAT MOISTURE WILL TRY TO RETURN AND A BAND OF STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP. AFTER 12Z...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS WHEN TO INCLUDE TSTM CHANCES AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES FROM SWRN CANADA ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF SWRN CANADIAN LOW TO FLATTEN AS
IT BUILDS ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS AS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY
DROPS SOUTH. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED WRN ZONES AS OF
730Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
LATEST RAP SOUNDING DELAYED THIS CLEARING ALONG/E OF MO RIVER TILL
AFTERNOON. SLOWED CLEARING DOWN A BIT E...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. MILDER TEMPS COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL AND GENERALLY A DEG OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE BASED ON PERHAPS
HINDERED MIXING FROM MORNING/EARLY AFTN CLOUDS E AND/OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER H85 TEMPS PER 00Z ECMWF.
UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD DAKOTAS LATE MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN LOW
LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
INCREASING WINDS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS PROBABLY
WILL NOT INCREASE QUICKLY ENOUGH TONIGHT TO HELP LOWS MUCH WITH
GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
LATE TONIGHT AIDED BY THETA E ADVECTION IN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
COULD MOVE ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...FOR NOW
CONFINED SLGT CHC POPS TO FAR N. OTHERWISE KEPT MONDAY AFTN DRY.
BOOSTED WIND SPEEDS MONDAY TO JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
NWRN ZONES. MAX TEMPERATURES PROBABLY A CATEGORY OR SO WARMER
MOST AREAS LOOKS FINE.
INCREASING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS SE A BIT AND LOW LEVEL JET/CONVERGENCE SHIFTS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AND MORE WILL PROBABLY BE
ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECASTS...IT APPEARS HIGHER POPS WILL BE
SHIFTING TOWARD ERN ZONES THRU LATE TUESDAY. IF CLOUDS/SHOWERS
REMAIN WIDESPREAD TUE MAX TEMPS MAY NEED LOWERING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW SCENARIO TUE NIGHT/WED PLAYS OUT AS A
WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW COULD HELP GENERATE MCS TO OUR WSW
IN UPSLOPE REGION ACROSS WRN HIGH PLAINS BY WED AM. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD SKIRT AREA WED...SPCLY SOUTH...AND LOW CHC POPS
WERE CARRIED GENERALLY ALONG/S OF HIGHWAY 30. HOWEVER...WE COULD
ALSO SEE JUST MAINLY CLOUDS FROM THIS...BUT EITHER PRECIP OR
CLOUDS COULD IMPACT HIGHS. FOR NOW THEY WERE KEPT IN THE 70S TUE
AND WED.
THURSDAY LOOKED DRY WITH INCREASING TSTM CHANCES AGAIN FROM W TO E
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. NO CHANGES MADE
FROM MODEL/PREVIOUS FORECAST BLEND.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
622 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
DEE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS WHEN TO INCLUDE TSTM CHANCES AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES FROM SWRN CANADA ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF SWRN CANADIAN LOW TO FLATTEN AS
IT BUILDS ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS AS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY
DROPS SOUTH. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED WRN ZONES AS OF
730Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
LATEST RAP SOUNDING DELAYED THIS CLEARING ALONG/E OF MO RIVER TILL
AFTERNOON. SLOWED CLEARING DOWN A BIT E...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. MILDER TEMPS COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL AND GENERALLY A DEG OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE BASED ON PERHAPS
HINDERED MIXING FROM MORNING/EARLY AFTN CLOUDS E AND/OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER H85 TEMPS PER 00Z ECMWF.
UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD DAKOTAS LATE MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN LOW
LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
INCREASING WINDS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS PROBABLY
WILL NOT INCREASE QUICKLY ENOUGH TONIGHT TO HELP LOWS MUCH WITH
GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
LATE TONIGHT AIDED BY THETA E ADVECTION IN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
COULD MOVE ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...FOR NOW
CONFINED SLGT CHC POPS TO FAR N. OTHERWISE KEPT MONDAY AFTN DRY.
BOOSTED WIND SPEEDS MONDAY TO JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
NWRN ZONES. MAX TEMPERATURES PROBABLY A CATEGORY OR SO WARMER
MOST AREAS LOOKS FINE.
INCREASING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS SE A BIT AND LOW LEVEL JET/CONVERGENCE SHIFTS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AND MORE WILL PROBABLY BE
ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECASTS...IT APPEARS HIGHER POPS WILL BE
SHIFTING TOWARD ERN ZONES THRU LATE TUESDAY. IF CLOUDS/SHOWERS
REMAIN WIDESPREAD TUE MAX TEMPS MAY NEED LOWERING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW SCENARIO TUE NIGHT/WED PLAYS OUT AS A
WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW COULD HELP GENERATE MCS TO OUR WSW
IN UPSLOPE REGION ACROSS WRN HIGH PLAINS BY WED AM. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD SKIRT AREA WED...SPCLY SOUTH...AND LOW CHC POPS
WERE CARRIED GENERALLY ALONG/S OF HIGHWAY 30. HOWEVER...WE COULD
ALSO SEE JUST MAINLY CLOUDS FROM THIS...BUT EITHER PRECIP OR
CLOUDS COULD IMPACT HIGHS. FOR NOW THEY WERE KEPT IN THE 70S TUE
AND WED.
THURSDAY LOOKED DRY WITH INCREASING TSTM CHANCES AGAIN FROM W TO E
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. NO CHANGES MADE
FROM MODEL/PREVIOUS FORECAST BLEND.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS WHEN TO INCLUDE TSTM CHANCES AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES FROM SWRN CANADA ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF SWRN CANADIAN LOW TO FLATTEN AS
IT BUILDS ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS AS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY
DROPS SOUTH. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED WRN ZONES AS OF
730Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
LATEST RAP SOUNDING DELAYED THIS CLEARING ALONG/E OF MO RIVER TILL
AFTERNOON. SLOWED CLEARING DOWN A BIT E...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. MILDER TEMPS COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL AND GENERALLY A DEG OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE BASED ON PERHAPS
HINDERED MIXING FROM MORNING/EARLY AFTN CLOUDS E AND/OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER H85 TEMPS PER 00Z ECMWF.
UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD DAKOTAS LATE MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN LOW
LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
INCREASING WINDS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS PROBABLY
WILL NOT INCREASE QUICKLY ENOUGH TONIGHT TO HELP LOWS MUCH WITH
GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
LATE TONIGHT AIDED BY THETA E ADVECTION IN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
COULD MOVE ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...FOR NOW
CONFINED SLGT CHC POPS TO FAR N. OTHERWISE KEPT MONDAY AFTN DRY.
BOOSTED WIND SPEEDS MONDAY TO JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
NWRN ZONES. MAX TEMPERATURES PROBABLY A CATEGORY OR SO WARMER
MOST AREAS LOOKS FINE.
INCREASING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS SE A BIT AND LOW LEVEL JET/CONVERGENCE SHIFTS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AND MORE WILL PROBABLY BE
ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECASTS...IT APPEARS HIGHER POPS WILL BE
SHIFTING TOWARD ERN ZONES THRU LATE TUESDAY. IF CLOUDS/SHOWERS
REMAIN WIDESPREAD TUE MAX TEMPS MAY NEED LOWERING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW SCENARIO TUE NIGHT/WED PLAYS OUT AS A
WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW COULD HELP GENERATE MCS TO OUR WSW
IN UPSLOPE REGION ACROSS WRN HIGH PLAINS BY WED AM. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD SKIRT AREA WED...SPCLY SOUTH...AND LOW CHC POPS
WERE CARRIED GENERALLY ALONG/S OF HIGHWAY 30. HOWEVER...WE COULD
ALSO SEE JUST MAINLY CLOUDS FROM THIS...BUT EITHER PRECIP OR
CLOUDS COULD IMPACT HIGHS. FOR NOW THEY WERE KEPT IN THE 70S TUE
AND WED.
THURSDAY LOOKED DRY WITH INCREASING TSTM CHANCES AGAIN FROM W TO E
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. NO CHANGES MADE
FROM MODEL/PREVIOUS FORECAST BLEND.
CHERMOK
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
MVFR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CEILINGS AT KOMA AND KLNK SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY 10Z-12Z AT KLNK AND AROUND 12Z-14Z AT KOMA...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BEYOND THEN. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
ONLY MADE A FEW FAIRLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FIRST OF ALL...SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE DECREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING...AS MANY SITES CONTINUE TO REPORT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20+ MPH...AND IT LOOKS LIKE SUSTAINED SPEEDS
TO AROUND 15 MPH MAY STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
1/2 OF THE CWA EVEN AT 10 PM WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE WEST...ALTHOUGH
ALL AREAS SHOULD LEGITIMATELY SETTLE TO AROUND/UNDER 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN. GIVEN THAT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE ALREADY SAFELY UNDER 30 MPH IN ALL
AREAS...WILL BE REMOVING WIND WORDING FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...RESULTING IN NO HAZARD MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AS THE REGION CONTINUES ITS FAIRLY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE OTHER TRICKY ISSUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
THE FATE OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK GENERALLY IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR A STEADY EROSION OF THIS STRATUS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE EVENING GOES ON...MUCH IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE 21Z RAP MAY BE
ONTO SOMETHING WITH ITS 900 MILLIBAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD...AS
IT SUGGESTS THAT QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD COVER COULD HANG ON OR
MOVE BACK INTO PRIMARILY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT IMPACT ON
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. NO CHANGES MADE TO LOW TEMPS AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...PLEASE
NOTE THAT FORECAST LOWS FOR OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS ARE STILL 5 DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE
2ND...WHICH FOR GRAND ISLAND IS 39 IN 1964...AND HASTINGS IS 40 IN
1964/1951.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
UPPER AIR PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDING IN BEHIND. AS
EXPECTED...THIS DISTURBANCE BROUGHT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE AREA
/MAINLY THIS MORNING/...AND HAS KEPT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY. HAS ALSO BEEN A BREEZY/WINDY DAY...WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER MN/WI HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. THIS
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTED IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND AT TIMES GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH AREA. DID HAVE SOME SITES ON
OCCASION HITTING WIND ADV CRITERIA.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SHOWING
BROAD RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...BETWEEN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ONTARIO AND THE ID/MONT/CANADIAN BORDER
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL OUT OF THE
CWA...AND HELP MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST
HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET. THE NAM IS ON THE FURTHEST
EAST SIDE OF THINGS...SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS ACTUALLY THROUGH THE
CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SUPPORT SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS
STAYING JUST TO/SET UP OVER THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL
BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME...BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WINDS BECOME CALM...AND COULD AFFECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS...WHICH BRING LOWER/MID 40S TO THE CWA. IF THE WINDS STAY
UP...THIS MAY BE TOO COOL.
SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN TEMPS ALOFT STARTING TO SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST...AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S /COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE 40S/.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
AS SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND SFC LOW DEEPENS
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO NEAR 50KTS AND IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOISTURE AGAIN IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
AND TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER...CLOSER TO SEASONAL READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. MONDAY WILL NOT BE WITHOUT WIND HOWEVER AS SFC
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO AT
LEAST H8. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO REACH WIND ADV CRITERIA JUST YET...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER DID HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN THE WAA REGIME...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT CAPPING TO HOLD IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTN WHILE
BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/INITIATION FOCUSES TO THE WEST ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE EDGING INTO SW
NEB/WESTERN KANSAS...AND TO THE NW ALONG SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY REACHES CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS. AN INSTABILITY AXIS OF
2000 TO 2500 J/KG WILL REACH CENTRAL NEB MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40KTS...AND SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HAIL/WIND PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THE
MAINLY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.
TUESDAY MAY SEE ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE MORNING WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND/OR SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY STALLING
OUT...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
POOLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY WITH SREF INDICATING
INSTABILITY OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS WITH
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING INTO SC NEB...WITH SHEAR ON THE ORDER
OF 40KTS. IF BOUNDARY POSITION IS CLOSE/ACROSS OUR CWA...STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTN/EVE IN VCNTY
OF BOUNDARY WITH SEVERE STORMS AGAIN LIKELY. SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS/DRY LINE AREA AND TO THE NW WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH/SECONDARY COOL FRONT.
BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...TOO DIFFICULT TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN THE
DETAILS AS BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTION
WHICH DEVELOPS EACH DAY/NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...FRONT MAY LINGER IN
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...THEN BETTER CHCS FOR STORMS BEGIN TO SHIFT SE
ALONG BOUNDARY WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM/LOW REACHES THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IN THEORY WE SHOULD SEE A LULL/BREAK IN CONVECTION
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OR TWO...THEN PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE AGAIN
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR TEMPERATURES...IT IS NOT LOOKING
OVERLY WARM OR COLD...WITH HIGHS DEPENDENT UPON WHICH SIDE OF
BOUNDARY YOU ARE ON...BUT CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS OVERALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT WIND THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. SOME STRAGGLING STRATUS NEAR 3500 FT WILL HANG AROUND
FOR PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL FINALLY CLEAR AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. LIGHT NORTH
WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND THE FIRST OF THE RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1135 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT IS SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER BACK INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1130AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271 FOR ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF
WESTERN MAINE.
11AM UPDATE... MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POP FORECAST TO
SHOW PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LINE OF
STORMS HAS FORMED IN VERMONT AND IS MOVING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE NOW.
OTHER CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MAINE
WHICH MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
815AM UPDATE... HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO HOURLY POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THAT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED NOW BUT CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER ABOUT 11AM. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A LINE FORMING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. STILL A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY.
7AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
ACROSS MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WERE
LOCATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED NORTH.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED FORWARD IN TIME A
COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
CONVECTION REACHING THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE BETWEEN 19Z- 20Z.
HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THIS PACKAGE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY IN BOWING OR LEWP SEGMENTS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN ANY DISCRETE STORMS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE DURING THE DAY...AND WITH GOOD SOLAR
HEATING OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB
TO AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG...WITH A FEW FAR SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.
LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WELL WHICH
MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
STORM MOTION WILL BE RELATIVELY RAPID...BUT WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY
OVER THE REGION...TRAINING ECHOES MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOTION. FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS MAY HAVE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE
FIELDS AND POSSIBLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST GROUND AND MORE PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. USED OF A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON A DEVELOPING WNW DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN THE WEEK AN
UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SPREAD A MOIST UNSTABLE SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE REGION WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS A MOIST COOL SE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. FRIDAY/SATURDAY THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST BUT SEVERAL WEAK COASTAL LOWS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY
SPREAD STEADIER RAINS ACROSS THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BECOME
DEPENDENT ON THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THIS BROAD COMPLEX SYSTEM
LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS BUT WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SCENARIOS. LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL AS THE MOIST DAMP SE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY LIFR IN ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THEY GRADUALLY EXIT THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COASTLINE BY LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND ALSO MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING AS WELL. SCA CONTINUES THRU LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE CRITERIA. SCAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE BAYS AS WAVES WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES UP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF
LIGHTNING BUT WILL ALSO BE PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TO AREAS
WHICH ARE AFFECTED BY THEM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT IS SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER BACK INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
11AM UPDATE... MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POP FORECAST TO
SHOW PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LINE OF
STORMS HAS FORMED IN VERMONT AND IS MOVING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE NOW.
OTHER CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MAINE
WHICH MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
815AM UPDATE... HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO HOURLY POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THAT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED NOW BUT CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER ABOUT 11AM. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A LINE FORMING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. STILL A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY.
7AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
ACROSS MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WERE
LOCATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED NORTH.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED FORWARD IN TIME A
COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
CONVECTION REACHING THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE BETWEEN 19Z- 20Z.
HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THIS PACKAGE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY IN BOWING OR LEWP SEGMENTS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN ANY DISCRETE STORMS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE DURING THE DAY...AND WITH GOOD SOLAR
HEATING OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB
TO AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG...WITH A FEW FAR SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.
LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WELL WHICH
MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
STORM MOTION WILL BE RELATIVELY RAPID...BUT WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY
OVER THE REGION...TRAINING ECHOES MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOTION. FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS MAY HAVE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE
FIELDS AND POSSIBLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST GROUND AND MORE PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. USED OF A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON A DEVELOPING WNW DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN THE WEEK AN
UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SPREAD A MOIST UNSTABLE SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE REGION WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS A MOIST COOL SE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. FRIDAY/SATURDAY THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST BUT SEVERAL WEAK COASTAL LOWS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY
SPREAD STEADIER RAINS ACROSS THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BECOME
DEPENDENT ON THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THIS BROAD COMPLEX SYSTEM
LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS BUT WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SCENARIOS. LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL AS THE MOIST DAMP SE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY LIFR IN ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THEY GRADUALLY EXIT THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COASTLINE BY LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND ALSO MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING AS WELL. SCA CONTINUES THRU LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE CRITERIA. SCAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE BAYS AS WAVES WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES UP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF
LIGHTNING BUT WILL ALSO BE PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TO AREAS
WHICH ARE AFFECTED BY THEM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
817 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT IS SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER BACK INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
815AM UPDATE... HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO HOURLY POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THAT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED NOW BUT CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER ABOUT 11AM. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A LINE FORMING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. STILL A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY.
7AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
ACROSS MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WERE
LOCATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED NORTH.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED FORWARD IN TIME A
COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
CONVECTION REACHING THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE BETWEEN 19Z- 20Z.
HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THIS PACKAGE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY IN BOWING OR LEWP SEGMENTS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN ANY DISCRETE STORMS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE DURING THE DAY...AND WITH GOOD SOLAR
HEATING OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB
TO AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG...WITH A FEW FAR SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.
LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WELL WHICH
MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
STORM MOTION WILL BE RELATIVELY RAPID...BUT WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY
OVER THE REGION...TRAINING ECHOES MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOTION. FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS MAY HAVE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE
FIELDS AND POSSIBLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST GROUND AND MORE PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. USED OF A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON A DEVELOPING WNW DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN THE WEEK AN
UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SPREAD A MOIST UNSTABLE SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE REGION WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS A MOIST COOL SE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. FRIDAY/SATURDAY THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST BUT SEVERAL WEAK COASTAL LOWS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY
SPREAD STEADIER RAINS ACROSS THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BECOME
DEPENDENT ON THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THIS BROAD COMPLEX SYSTEM
LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS BUT WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SCENARIOS. LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL AS THE MOIST DAMP SE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY LIFR IN ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THEY GRADUALLY EXIT THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COASTLINE BY LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND ALSO MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING AS WELL. SCA CONTINUES THRU LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE CRITERIA. SCAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE BAYS AS WAVES WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES UP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF
LIGHTNING BUT WILL ALSO BE PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TO AREAS
WHICH ARE AFFECTED BY THEM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
656 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT IS SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER BACK INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDS ACROSS ME/NH. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE MTNS HAS WEAKENED
AND SHIFTED NORTH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF PCPN WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION IS MOVING NE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK.
TIMING OF PCPN MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED FORWARD IN TIME A COUPLE
HOURS...HOWEVER LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO SHOW THE CONVECTION
REACHING THE MTNS OF ME AND WRNMST NH BTWN 19Z-20Z.
HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUDS BASED ON STLT IMAGERY...DEW POINTS AND TEMPS
THIS PACKAGE.
PREV DISC...
A SLGT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF AN APCHG COLD FRONT AND
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY IN BOWING OR LEWP SEGMENTS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN ANY DESCRETE STORMS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND WITH GOOD SOLAR
HEATING OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB
TO AOA 1000 J/KG...WITH A FEW FAR SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS APCHG
2000 J/KG.
LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WELL WHICH
MAY LEAD TO ISOLD SUPERCELLS.
STORM MOTION WILL BE RELATIVELY RAPID...BUT WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY
OVER THE REGION...TRAIN ECHOES MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TSTMS WILL BE CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS SFC COLD FRONT CONTS TO
SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOTION. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY MORNING AS MODELS CONT
TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SFC FIELDS AND POSSIBLY THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE PCPN WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST GROUND AND MORE PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. USED OF ABLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MON EVENING ALLOWING
CLEARING BEHIND THE FROPA ON A DEVELOPING WNWLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
TUE/WED THE DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO A MUCH DRIER
AMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER L/WV TROF
WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN
AND SPREAD A MOIST UNSTABLE SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION WHILE
IN THE LOW LEVELS A MOIST COOL SELY FLOW STRENGTHENS. FRI/SAT THIS
UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST BUT SEVERAL WEAK COASTAL LOWS
MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY SPREAD STEADIER RAINS ACROSS THE
AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BECOME DEPENDANT ON THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF
THIS BROAD COMPLEX SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THIS BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SCENARIOS. LATE IN
THE WEEK TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AS THE MOIST DAMP SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. CIGS/VSBYS BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS IN THE MTNS AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APCHG
COLD FRONT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY LIFR IN ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THEY GRADUALLY EXIT THE MTNS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
COASTLINE BY LATER IN THE DAY. SCT SHOWERS AND STMS WILL CONT
TNGT...AND ALSO MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDS TUE/WED BECOMING MVFR IN DVLP SCT SHWRS BY LATE THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING AS WELL. SCA CONTINUES THRU LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE CRITERIA. SCAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE BAYS AS WAVES WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES UP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF
LIGHTNING BUT WILL ALSO BE PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TO AREAS
WHICH ARE AFFECTED BY THEM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
752 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT MONDAY...BACKED OFF ON SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS ARE HAVING TROUBLE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA THIS EVENING AND THE HRRR...AND NORMALLY OVERLY MOIST NAM
AND LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOWING LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE RAP. STILL
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ON NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS UPPER TROUGH AND VORT PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
EXCEPT FOR A FEW 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT MONDAY... FCST FOCUS IS TEMPS
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND MAGNITUDE OF
WINDS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN...WITH NARROW
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACRS OUR FA. THIS MID LVL RH WL
DECREASE THIS EVENING...AS SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW RH QUICKLY
DECREASING BY 00Z TONIGHT...BUT LATEST RAP RH PROGS SHOW MORE
DEVELOPMENT AFT 08Z. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ADVECTION ADDITIONAL RH ACRS OUR NORTHERN
CWA. WL MENTION MAINLY CLR TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPER CENTRAL/EASTERN VT VALLEYS. BL WINDS WL BE BTWN 10
AND 18 KNTS...WHICH WL LIMIT AREAL FOG AND FROST DEVELOPMENT. IF
DEEPER VALLEYS DECOUPLE AND CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT AFT 08Z IS
DELAYED...SOME LIGHT PATCHY FROST WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT SLK AND
PARTS OF THE NEK LATE TONIGHT. WL MENTION LOWS RANGING FROM THE
M/U30S SLK/NEK TO M/U40S SLV/CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FCST CHALLENGE ON TUES WL BE AREAL
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FROST ON TUES
NIGHT/WEDS MORNING ACRS OUR COLDER MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY...WHILE
ADVECTING SOME 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS RH AND UPSLOPE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW OF 15 TO
30 KNTS WL PRODUCE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREENS. BY 18Z...DEEP DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH
PRES AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WEAK S/W ENERGY WL RESULT IN CLRING
SKIES. THESE CLRING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WL CONT OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP AFT SUNSET.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U20S SLK/NEK TO L/M30S
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT VALLEYS TO U30S TO M40S WARMER PARTS OF THE
CPV/SLV. EXPECT STRONG INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND WARMER TEMPS ACRS THE MIDSLOPE THERMAL
BELTS. SOME FROST HEADLINES WL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACRS THE DACKS
AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT.
ON WEDS...SFC RIDGE CONTS AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS. GIVEN THE DEEP
DRY LAYER IN PLACE...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THRU
EARLY AFTN...BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ADVANCE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 4-6C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE L/M60S
MTNS/NEK TO L70S VALLEYS...VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. BY WED
NIGHT...CLOUDS WL QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE FAST FLW ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE
CONUS...HELPING TO FOCUS POTENTIAL MORE RAIN LATE WED NIGHT.
LATEST NAM/GFS ARE 6 TO 10 HRS QUICKER BRINGING MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS FROM OHIO VALLE INTO OUR REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HAVE A FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET AND NOSE OF 85H JET DEVELOPING
ACRS OUR FA BY THURS AM. WL INCREASE POPS AFT 06Z FROM SW TO
NE...THINKING A BAND OF RAIN WL BE DEVELOPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR WEST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST... JUST SOUTH OF BTV CWA. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. COULD BE OF A BREAK LATER
FRIDAY...BUT AS UPPER TROUGH THEN SHARPENS AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD
NORTH INTO FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL QPF FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY COULD EXCEED 3
INCHES...WHICH COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS AND ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WOULD HAVE HAVE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE WATER LEVELS ON
AREA WATERWAYS WITH SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE. SITUATION WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL COME TO AN END AS SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
ENTER THE PICTURE MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN...MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE
MINS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND DAYTIME TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION WITH DRY NW FLOW. FEW-SCT CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVER
KMSS/KPBG AND KBTV...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS HAVING A TOUGH
TIME PROCEEDING INTO THE DRY AIR OVERHEAD WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S.
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH GENERALLY W-NW FLOW AT 5-10KTS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXED.
TUESDAY MORNING...GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN OUT OF THE NW AT
10-15KTS AND GUSTS OF 15-25KTS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINANT
FEATURE WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR TWO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENTS FROM THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF
AND THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE
WE CAN EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS BY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING. STAY TUNED
TO LATER FORECASTS AND POTENTIAL STATEMENTS REGARDING THESE
POTENTIAL UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
743 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT MONDAY...BACKED OFF ON SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS ARE HAVING TROUBLE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA THIS EVENING AND THE HRRR...AND NORMALLY OVERLY MOIST NAM
AND LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOWING LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE RAP. STILL
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ON NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION AS
UPPER TROUGH AND VORT PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT
FOR A FEW 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
FCST FOCUS IS TEMPS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND MAGNITUDE OF WINDS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN...WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACRS OUR FA. THIS MID LVL RH WL
DECREASE THIS EVENING...AS SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW RH QUICKLY
DECREASING BY 00Z TONIGHT...BUT LATEST RAP RH PROGS SHOW MORE
DEVELOPMENT AFT 08Z. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ADVECTION ADDITIONAL RH ACRS OUR NORTHERN
CWA. WL MENTION MAINLY CLR TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPER CENTRAL/EASTERN VT VALLEYS. BL WINDS WL BE BTWN 10
AND 18 KNTS...WHICH WL LIMIT AREAL FOG AND FROST DEVELOPMENT. IF
DEEPER VALLEYS DECOUPLE AND CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT AFT 08Z IS
DELAYED...SOME LIGHT PATCHY FROST WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT SLK AND
PARTS OF THE NEK LATE TONIGHT. WL MENTION LOWS RANGING FROM THE
M/U30S SLK/NEK TO M/U40S SLV/CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FCST CHALLENGE ON TUES WL BE AREAL COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FROST ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING ACRS OUR COLDER MTN VALLEY LOCATIONS. MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY...WHILE ADVECTING SOME
850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZNS. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS RH AND UPSLOPE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW OF 15 TO 30 KNTS WL
PRODUCE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN
GREENS. BY 18Z...DEEP DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WEAK S/W ENERGY WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES. THESE
CLRING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WL CONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP AFT SUNSET. THINKING LOWS WL
RANGE FROM THE U20S SLK/NEK TO L/M30S CENTRAL/EASTERN VT VALLEYS
TO U30S TO M40S WARMER PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV. EXPECT STRONG
INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND WARMER TEMPS ACRS THE MIDSLOPE THERMAL BELTS. SOME FROST
HEADLINES WL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACRS THE DACKS AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT.
ON WEDS...SFC RIDGE CONTS AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS. GIVEN THE DEEP DRY LAYER
IN PLACE...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THRU EARLY
AFTN...BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ADVANCE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN 4-6C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE L/M60S MTNS/NEK TO
L70S VALLEYS...VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. BY WED NIGHT...CLOUDS WL
QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE FAST FLW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SFC BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS...HELPING TO FOCUS
POTENTIAL MORE RAIN LATE WED NIGHT. LATEST NAM/GFS ARE 6 TO 10 HRS
QUICKER BRINGING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM OHIO VALLE INTO OUR
REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE A FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET AND
NOSE OF 85H JET DEVELOPING ACRS OUR FA BY THURS AM. WL INCREASE POPS
AFT 06Z FROM SW TO NE...THINKING A BAND OF RAIN WL BE DEVELOPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR WEST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
JUST SOUTH OF BTV CWA. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ALONG THE FRONT. COULD BE OF A BREAK LATER FRIDAY...BUT AS UPPER
TROUGH THEN SHARPENS AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD NORTH INTO FORECAST AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TOTAL QPF FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES...WHICH COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS
AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WOULD HAVE HAVE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE
WATER LEVELS ON AREA WATERWAYS WITH SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END AS SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN...MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE MINS WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE LOOP
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF VERMONT.
CIGS MOSTLY VFR BUT STILL SOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT SLK/MSS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THIS PM AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR TWO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENTS FROM THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. STILL SOME
UNCERATAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND THE
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE WE CAN
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS BY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING. STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS AND POTENTIAL STATEMENTS REGARDING THESE POTENTIAL
UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
335 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
TONIGHT. THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THIS ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...THESE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST BEFORE
FALLING APART TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...THE BRISK SW FLOW IS
SHADOWING THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER...EXTENDING
NE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND TO WATERTOWN. IN THESE AREAS...EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL JUST TO THE NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH...REACHING THE SOUTH
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO JUST SHY OF SUNSET. EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
WITH LAKE SHADOWING AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE
STILL IS A CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY
WILL BE DRY WITH ITS MAIN INFLUENCE BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW
AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
COOLER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
LONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. AFTER SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND GIVE WAY
TO QUITE A BIT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DESPITE THE SUN...THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL START THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S... EVEN SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND BLACK RIVER VALLEY.
THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY SHOW A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL
CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST
MAY CLUTTER THE SKY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR THE LAKE PLAINS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...A BIT MORE MID CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH...ESSENTIALLY A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT...AND BRINGS AN
INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ROUGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY TO EAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AND SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AS A LOW LEVEL 40KT JETS
SETS UP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...INDICATING THE RISK OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...
LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS...READINGS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A
BROAD REGION OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE AND WARMER/HUMID AIR IN
PLACE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TO LOWER CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A
DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CLOSE TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. BEHIND THIS THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE ARE UNLIKELY TO
IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS...WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY FORECAST TO BE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ROUGHLY AROUND
00Z. THIS MAY SPARK A SHOWER...AND WILL KEY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
W-NW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH CIGS LIKELY TO LIFT AND SCATTER DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. LEFT OVER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN BRIEF BKN MVFR CIGS...BUT
THESE WOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ON LAND...WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN IN SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA ON MOST OF THE NEARSHORES AND RIVERS UNTIL ABOUT
SUNSET. AFTER THIS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO FCST FOR CRNT OBS AND
ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING ACRS ESSEX COUNTY NY AND THE NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...WITH CRNT MOTION TO THE NE AT 25 TO 35 MPH. LATEST LAPS
DATA CONTS TO SHOW SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2500
J/KG...ACRS CPV AND POINTS EAST. IN ADDITION...BEST DYNAMICS AND
LLVL WIND FIELDS ARE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA ATTM. EXPECT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE ACRS MOST
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTN. MAIN THREAT WL BE
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN CRNT
TRENDS...GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WL BE ACRS THE ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. WE WL BE WATCHING THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY AS
WE PROGRESS THRU THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE.
UPDATED ZNS TO REFLECT SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH #271 FOR EASTERN
DACKS THRU VT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. REST OF FCST IN GREAT
SHAPE.
UPDATED FCST TO MENTION SHOWERS/STORMS THRU
THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND REMOVED MENTION OF
ENHANCED WORDING THRU THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO...ADJUSTED
TEMPS/DWPTS BASED ON CRNT OBS.
FCST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT
S/W ENERGY ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH ENHANCED RIBBON OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY ACRS WESTERN NY/PA. IN
ADDITION...STRONG HGHT FALLS ARE OCCURRING AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
LIFTS TWD HUDSON`S BAY THIS AFTN AND ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY SWINGS
ACRS OUR CWA.
AT THE SFC...INITIAL PRE-FRNTAL TROF HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS INITIAL
TROF...WHICH WL AID SFC HEATING. WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
80F...AND DWPTS IN THE U60S TO L70S...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES WL BE
BTWN 2000-2500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO REDEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTN ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS...AND BECOME SEVERE AS THEY ENCOUNTER BETTER
INSTABILITY/SHEAR ACRS THE CPV AND MOST OF VT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLW THRU 500MB...SUPPORTING LINES OF
STORMS WITH INDIVIDUAL BOW SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...WITH PRIMARY THREAT
BEING STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. PRE-STORM CHECKLIST SHOWS VERY HIGH
0C LINE AROUND 13KFT THIS AFTN...WHICH INDICATES WE WOULD NEED A
50 TO 55 DBZ TO 35,000 FEET FOR SEVERE HAIL. THEREFORE PRIMARY
THREAT WL BE WINDS...AND GIVEN RECENT SATURATED SOILS...SHALLOW
ROOTED TREES COULD EASILY BE BLOWN DOWN. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR
EASTERN VT BY 8 PM THIS EVENING...BASED ON CRNT RAP AND BTV 4KM
REFLECTIVITY PROGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ACTIVE 24-HR PERIOD EXPECTED FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS A CD FRNT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THRU THE AREA. RW/TRW FROM
THE OVERNGT PERIOD STILL SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH THRU CANADIAN BORDER
ZONES ATTM AND SHOULD CLR INTO QUEBEC BFR MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES WITH
FRNT...WHICH IS ONLY TO OUR WEST OVER WESTERN NY/LK ONTARIO. MANY
SPOTS IN THE CWA WILL SEE INSTABILITY INCR DURING THE DAY AS
PSUNNY/MSUNNY WILL ENSUE BFR CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR INCR IN T/TD THROUGHOUT AREA. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG SHEAR/LAPSE RATES...LI/S NEARING -4 AND MDL CAPE FROM
BUFKIT SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG POTENTIAL...WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY/TNGT. SPC(STORM
PREDICTION CENTER) HAS MAJORITY OF CWA UNDER SL RISK FOR SEVERE
CONDITIONS SO HAVE MAINTAINED SEVERE/ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST.
MDL PW/S NEARING 1.25-1.60" IN GENERAL WITH LOCALLY HIR AMTS WILL
CREATE QPF AMTS IN GENERAL NEARLY AN INCH FOR ALL AREAS...W/
LOCALLY HIR TOTALS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. W/ SOME AREAS SEEING
TRAINING OF RW/TRW OVERNGT...HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BE AN ISSUE TO
MONITOR. LATEST MDL TREND IS TO BRING BULK OF PRECIP THRU AREA
AFTER MIDNGT TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WORKING AROUND LOW TO OUR
WEST MAY AID IN SHUTTING DOWN PRECIP QUICKER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
PRECIP TRENDING DOWN THRU 12Z MONDAY AS TRAINING POTENTIAL MAY
KEEP PRECIP GOING ALONG FRNT A BIT LONGER. TEMP THRU PERIOD NEAR
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES WHERE NOT AFFECTED BY CLD
COVER FROM APPORACHING FRNT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...MDLS PUSH
FRNTL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH A
GRADUAL CLRING TREND THRU THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LKS REGION. OVER PAST SEVERAL MDL RUNS...UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED W/ THIS SFC FRNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THRU SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SL CHANCE FOR -RW
FOR NE VT THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BFR CLRING OUT. OVERALL TREND
IS FOR NICE WX AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STAYING CLOSE TO MDL
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING MOISTURE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND ALSO
BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. GFS MODEL
STILL HAS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL OPT TO STAY
WITH PREVIOUS CONTINUITY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT...AFFECTING
TAF SITES RUT/MPV/BTV. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE AT RUT/MPV. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED...AND NOT AS STRONG AS STORMS IN VERMONT. THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AFTER 22Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...BUT NOT UNTIL 02Z MONDAY IN EASTERN VERMONT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR OVERNIGHT IN FOG...MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK/RUT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH BKN VFR CIGS. WINDS SOUTHWEST
10-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT...THEN WEST 5-15 KNOTS MONDAY. STRONG WIND IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME...WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TRRN. ALSO...MINOR URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH THE ENITRE BROKEN
LINE SLOWLY MOVING EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TODAY...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET. IN
ADDITION...LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH THE
EXPECTATION THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND OPEN WATERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STEADIER RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN END TONIGHT AS
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST. BEHIND THIS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...WITH
RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND OTHER
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...THESE WILL PROBABLY EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...THE
BRISK SW FLOW IS SHADOWING THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER...WITH THIS LIKELY TO SPREAD NE TO WATERTOWN THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. IN THESE AREAS...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL TO THE NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH...REACHING THE SOUTH
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO JUST SHY OF SUNSET. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
WEAKEN WITH LAKE SHADOWING AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE STILL IS A CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY
WILL BE DRY WITH ITS MAIN INFLUENCE BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW
AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
COOLER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
LONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK DURING THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD...AS WE WILL EXPERIENCE A
STRETCH OF SUNNY COMFORTABLE DAYS WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THIS SHOULD
ENABLE THE REGION AN EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT AFTER SOAKING
RAINS FROM THE WEEKEND.
THE BERMUDA HIGH THAT BROUGHT US A LITTLE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
HAS LONG SINCE BROKEN DOWN AND WILL NOW BE REPLACED DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK BY EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL
INITIALLY RESULT IN SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S MONDAY AND 65 TO 70 ON TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY PUSH BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE...WE CAN ANTICIPATE A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS WITH
LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 40S.
AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS
THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ESTABLISH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LEVEL
FEATURE COULD THEN PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER LAKES
WESTWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
CROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
LACKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
AS WE START NEXT WEEKEND...THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING THAT MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
RE-ESTABLISH DRY WEATHER FOR AT LETS A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CLOSE TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT
TAF LOCATIONS...WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THIS TIME
WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS TO ABOUT 30 KTS AT MOST SITES.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ROUGHLY AROUND
00Z. THIS MAY SPARK A SHOWER...AND WILL KEY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
W-NW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH CIGS LIKELY TO LIFT AND SCATTER DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. LEFT OVER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN BRIEF BKN MVFR CIGS...BUT
THESE WOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL OF THE BUFFALO CREEKS WILL RUN HIGH TODAY...DUE TO THE TWO
INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. NONE OF THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THE CAYUGA CREEK IN
LANCASTER AND THE CAZENOVIA CREEK IN EBENEZER ARE BOTH CRESTING
LATE THIS MORNING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL/RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/RSH/TJP
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 117 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO FCST FOR CRNT OBS AND
ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING ACRS ESSEX COUNTY NY AND THE NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...WITH CRNT MOTION TO THE NE AT 25 TO 35 MPH. LATEST LAPS
DATA CONTS TO SHOW SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2500
J/KG...ACRS CPV AND POINTS EAST. IN ADDITION...BEST DYNAMICS AND
LLVL WIND FIELDS ARE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA ATTM. EXPECT
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE ACRS MOST
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTN. MAIN THREAT WL BE
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN CRNT
TRENDS...GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WL BE ACRS THE ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. WE WL BE WATCHING THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY AS
WE PROGRESS THRU THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE.
UPDATED ZNS TO REFLECT SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH #271 FOR EASTERN
DACKS THRU VT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. REST OF FCST IN GREAT
SHAPE.
UPDATED FCST TO MENTION SHOWERS/STORMS THRU
THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND REMOVED MENTION OF
ENHANCED WORDING THRU THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO...ADJUSTED
TEMPS/DWPTS BASED ON CRNT OBS.
FCST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT
S/W ENERGY ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH ENHANCED RIBBON OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY ACRS WESTERN NY/PA. IN
ADDITION...STRONG HGHT FALLS ARE OCCURRING AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
LIFTS TWD HUDSON`S BAY THIS AFTN AND ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY SWINGS
ACRS OUR CWA.
AT THE SFC...INITIAL PRE-FRNTAL TROF HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS INITIAL
TROF...WHICH WL AID SFC HEATING. WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
80F...AND DWPTS IN THE U60S TO L70S...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES WL BE
BTWN 2000-2500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO REDEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTN ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS...AND BECOME SEVERE AS THEY ENCOUNTER BETTER
INSTABILITY/SHEAR ACRS THE CPV AND MOST OF VT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLW THRU 500MB...SUPPORTING LINES OF
STORMS WITH INDIVIDUAL BOW SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...WITH PRIMARY THREAT
BEING STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. PRE-STORM CHECKLIST SHOWS VERY HIGH
0C LINE AROUND 13KFT THIS AFTN...WHICH INDICATES WE WOULD NEED A
50 TO 55 DBZ TO 35,000 FEET FOR SEVERE HAIL. THEREFORE PRIMARY
THREAT WL BE WINDS...AND GIVEN RECENT SATURATED SOILS...SHALLOW
ROOTED TREES COULD EASILY BE BLOWN DOWN. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR
EASTERN VT BY 8 PM THIS EVENING...BASED ON CRNT RAP AND BTV 4KM
REFLECTIVITY PROGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ACTIVE 24-HR PERIOD EXPECTED FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS A CD FRNT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THRU THE AREA. RW/TRW FROM
THE OVERNGT PERIOD STILL SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH THRU CANADIAN BORDER
ZONES ATTM AND SHOULD CLR INTO QUEBEC BFR MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES WITH
FRNT...WHICH IS ONLY TO OUR WEST OVER WESTERN NY/LK ONTARIO. MANY
SPOTS IN THE CWA WILL SEE INSTABILITY INCR DURING THE DAY AS
PSUNNY/MSUNNY WILL ENSUE BFR CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR INCR IN T/TD THROUGHOUT AREA. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG SHEAR/LAPSE RATES...LI/S NEARING -4 AND MDL CAPE FROM
BUFKIT SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG POTENTIAL...WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY/TNGT. SPC(STORM
PREDICTION CENTER) HAS MAJORITY OF CWA UNDER SL RISK FOR SEVERE
CONDITIONS SO HAVE MAINTAINED SEVERE/ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST.
MDL PW/S NEARING 1.25-1.60" IN GENERAL WITH LOCALLY HIR AMTS WILL
CREATE QPF AMTS IN GENERAL NEARLY AN INCH FOR ALL AREAS...W/
LOCALLY HIR TOTALS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. W/ SOME AREAS SEEING
TRAINING OF RW/TRW OVERNGT...HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BE AN ISSUE TO
MONITOR. LATEST MDL TREND IS TO BRING BULK OF PRECIP THRU AREA
AFTER MIDNGT TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WORKING AROUND LOW TO OUR
WEST MAY AID IN SHUTTING DOWN PRECIP QUICKER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
PRECIP TRENDING DOWN THRU 12Z MONDAY AS TRAINING POTENTIAL MAY
KEEP PRECIP GOING ALONG FRNT A BIT LONGER. TEMP THRU PERIOD NEAR
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES WHERE NOT AFFECTED BY CLD
COVER FROM APPORACHING FRNT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...MDLS PUSH
FRNTL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH A
GRADUAL CLRING TREND THRU THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LKS REGION. OVER PAST SEVERAL MDL RUNS...UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED W/ THIS SFC FRNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THRU SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SL CHANCE FOR -RW
FOR NE VT THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BFR CLRING OUT. OVERALL TREND
IS FOR NICE WX AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STAYING CLOSE TO MDL
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING MOISTURE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND ALSO
BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. GFS MODEL
STILL HAS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL OPT TO STAY
WITH PREVIOUS CONTINUITY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP AS OF 1130Z SUNDAY SHOWING SOME SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AROUND 14Z-18Z TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD. EXPECTING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FROM 16Z-21Z SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
EAST OF THE REGION BY 03Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME...WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TRRN. ALSO...MINOR URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH THE ENITRE BROKEN
LINE SLOWLY MOVING EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TODAY...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET. IN
ADDITION...LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH THE
EXPECTATION THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND OPEN WATERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/RJS
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1140 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1138 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED ZNS TO REFLECT SVR THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #271 FOR EASTERN DACKS THRU VT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.
UPDATED FCST TO MENTION SHOWERS/STORMS THRU
THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND REMOVED MENTION OF
ENHANCED WORDING THRU THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO...ADJUSTED
TEMPS/DWPTS BASED ON CRNT OBS.
FCST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT
S/W ENERGY ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH ENHANCED RIBBON OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY ACRS WESTERN NY/PA. IN
ADDITION...STRONG HGHT FALLS ARE OCCURRING AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
LIFTS TWD HUDSON`S BAY THIS AFTN AND ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY SWINGS
ACRS OUR CWA.
AT THE SFC...INITIAL PRE-FRNTAL TROF HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS INITIAL
TROF...WHICH WL AID SFC HEATING. WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
80F...AND DWPTS IN THE U60S TO L70S...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES WL BE
BTWN 2000-2500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO REDEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTN ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS...AND BECOME SEVERE AS THEY ENCOUNTER BETTER
INSTABILITY/SHEAR ACRS THE CPV AND MOST OF VT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLW THRU 500MB...SUPPORTING LINES OF
STORMS WITH INDIVIDUAL BOW SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...WITH PRIMARY THREAT
BEING STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. PRE-STORM CHECKLIST SHOWS VERY HIGH
0C LINE AROUND 13KFT THIS AFTN...WHICH INDICATES WE WOULD NEED A
50 TO 55 DBZ TO 35,000 FEET FOR SEVERE HAIL. THEREFORE PRIMARY
THREAT WL BE WINDS...AND GIVEN RECENT SATURATED SOILS...SHALLOW
ROOTED TREES COULD EASILY BE BLOWN DOWN. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR
EASTERN VT BY 8 PM THIS EVENING...BASED ON CRNT RAP AND BTV 4KM
REFLECTIVITY PROGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ACTIVE 24-HR PERIOD EXPECTED FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS A CD FRNT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THRU THE AREA. RW/TRW FROM
THE OVERNGT PERIOD STILL SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH THRU CANADIAN BORDER
ZONES ATTM AND SHOULD CLR INTO QUEBEC BFR MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES WITH
FRNT...WHICH IS ONLY TO OUR WEST OVER WESTERN NY/LK ONTARIO. MANY
SPOTS IN THE CWA WILL SEE INSTABILITY INCR DURING THE DAY AS
PSUNNY/MSUNNY WILL ENSUE BFR CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR INCR IN T/TD THROUGHOUT AREA. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG SHEAR/LAPSE RATES...LI/S NEARING -4 AND MDL CAPE FROM
BUFKIT SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG POTENTIAL...WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY/TNGT. SPC(STORM
PREDICTION CENTER) HAS MAJORITY OF CWA UNDER SL RISK FOR SEVERE
CONDITIONS SO HAVE MAINTAINED SEVERE/ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST.
MDL PW/S NEARING 1.25-1.60" IN GENERAL WITH LOCALLY HIR AMTS WILL
CREATE QPF AMTS IN GENERAL NEARLY AN INCH FOR ALL AREAS...W/
LOCALLY HIR TOTALS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. W/ SOME AREAS SEEING
TRAINING OF RW/TRW OVERNGT...HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BE AN ISSUE TO
MONITOR. LATEST MDL TREND IS TO BRING BULK OF PRECIP THRU AREA
AFTER MIDNGT TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WORKING AROUND LOW TO OUR
WEST MAY AID IN SHUTTING DOWN PRECIP QUICKER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
PRECIP TRENDING DOWN THRU 12Z MONDAY AS TRAINING POTENTIAL MAY
KEEP PRECIP GOING ALONG FRNT A BIT LONGER. TEMP THRU PERIOD NEAR
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES WHERE NOT AFFECTED BY CLD
COVER FROM APPORACHING FRNT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...MDLS PUSH
FRNTL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH A
GRADUAL CLRING TREND THRU THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LKS REGION. OVER PAST SEVERAL MDL RUNS...UPPER
TROUGH ASSOCIATED W/ THIS SFC FRNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THRU SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SL CHANCE FOR -RW
FOR NE VT THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BFR CLRING OUT. OVERALL TREND
IS FOR NICE WX AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STAYING CLOSE TO MDL
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING MOISTURE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SATURDAY FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND ALSO
BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. GFS MODEL
STILL HAS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL OPT TO STAY
WITH PREVIOUS CONTINUITY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP AS OF 1130Z SUNDAY SHOWING SOME SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AROUND 14Z-18Z TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD. EXPECTING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FROM 16Z-21Z SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
EAST OF THE REGION BY 03Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME...WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TRRN. ALSO...MINOR URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH THE ENITRE BROKEN
LINE SLOWLY MOVING EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TODAY...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET. IN
ADDITION...LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH THE
EXPECTATION THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND OPEN WATERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/RJS
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
153 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK. WARM
FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH LOSS OF SUNSHINE...LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO BECOME LESS
UNSTABLE. THIS HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE STORMS IN OUR REGION DECREASING
IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST
AND NORTHWEST.
EXPECT THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME AND HAVE
ADJUSTED ONSET OF LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
OTHERWISE...ONLY TWEAKS MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...15Z REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONGOING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...FROM WESTERN OHIO SW-WARD
DOWN THE EXTENT OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN TENN/ARKANSAS
RESULTANT OF STRONG OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. SFC TEMPS IN WHAT APPEARED
YESTERDAY TO BE THE FAVORED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT
SVR WX INITIATION STILL ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S GENERALLY...WITH
NO LIGHTNING STRIKES CURRENTLY. SHOULD PRECIP/CLOUDS HANG ON OVER
THAT AREA...STRONGER STORMS MAY WAIT TO FORM FURTHER EAST OVER
CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS SOUTHWEST WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S DESPITE FAIRLY DENSE HIGH CLOUD COVER. GOOD
DYNAMICS ARRIVE BY 21Z WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE 30-40KTS OF
SHEAR IN PLACE. WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST
HOWEVER...TOUGH CALL ON DETERMINING A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. A VORT
MAX PER LATEST RUC13 PROGGED TO PUSH NE-WARD THROUGH CENTRAL KY BY
21Z-00Z MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING. DO FEEL THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FORM BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT FIRST RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST BY AND AFTER 00Z SUN. AS USUAL...IT APPEARS TO BE A RACE
BETWEEN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME PEAK INSTABILITY. BUT
IN THE END...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER BUT THE THREAT
APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST. STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD
WITH DCAPE VALS OVER 1K J/KG JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EL/S ARE SUFFICIENTLY TALL FOR SOME LARGE HAIL.
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE GENERAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WITH SOME
THUNDER PERHAPS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH-TYPE FEATURE. STILL EXPECTING
ROUGHLY A HALF-INCH OR SO ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME LOCALIZED WATER
ISSUES COULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS PASS OVER THE
SAME LOCATION BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. SUNDAY...AGAIN LITTLE
CHANGE FROM PREV FCST WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS CONFINED
MAINLY TO CKB-CRW AND POINTS EAST BY 18Z. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HOWEVER
STILL LAGS WELL BEHIND AND ONLY ENTERING THE NW ZONES BY END OF THE
PERIOD. INHERITED MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 FOR LOWLANDS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF SHOW COLD FRONT OVER THE OH RIVER BY 00Z MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT BRINGS A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE AT THE SFC COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR
CALM. THEN...FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MILD AFTERNOON...AND RELATIVELY
COLDER NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SEMI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO VORT MAX FROM SHORTWAVES
SUGGEST BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEARING CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR
LOW LEVEL DIURNAL CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY ON. TWEAKED DOWN WPC
TEMPERATURE A BIT.
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORMS ACROSS OH INTO SOUTHEAST OH
THURSDAY...UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...WILL ALSO RETURN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
BAND OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WELL AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...REACHING THE I79 CORRIDOR BY 09Z...AND THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY 18Z...AND EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN...WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE...SO WILL USE VCTS IN TAFS. BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF
CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF BAND OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS
MAY VARY BY 2 OR 3 HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 06/02/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M M M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND IN
POST-RAIN FOG LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JSH/50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
136 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMPT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE AREA...BEFORE A DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL WORKING SOME DECENT UPDRAFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. A FEW STORM SPLITS...LEFT MOVING HAIL
CORES...AND PERSISTENT WEAK/BROAD ROTATION HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS /PROMPTED ONE QUICK WARNING/. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK RATHER BRISKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WHILE A
ROGUE SMALL HAIL/WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE...THINK THESE HAVE WEAKENED
IN A GENERAL SENSE FOR THE EVENING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING ENTERING
CNTL/ERN IL CURRENTLY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. RECENT HRRR
RUNS SIMPLY ADAMANT A WHOLE BUNCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN IND/WRN OHIO IN A FEW HOURS...AND DON/T WANT TO
TOTALLY DISCOUNT THIS AS IT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE FEW STEADIER
SIGNALS IN THE HRRR THE LAST FEW HOURS. BUT LAST GLIMPSES OF
SATELLITE VIS PICS OVER IND SHOW THAT THE STABLE AIRMASS IS INTACT
AND VERY FEW AGITATED CUMULUS/ACCAS ARE EVIDENT. THERE SHOULD BE A
MODEST RAMP-UP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PV ANOMALY ROTATING THROUGH IL RIGHT NOW SO THE SYNOPTIC SIGNALS
SAY TO STAY THE COURSE WITH HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES BEGINNING
VERY LATE THIS EVENING. EARLY LOOK AT THE 02.00Z KILN BALLOON DATA
SUGGESTS INSTBY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT WINDS/SHEAR CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SPC MESOA DATA
SUGGESTING THE DCAPE POOL HAS BEEN MODIFIED SOME AND NOW THE NEAR
SFC SHALLOW INVERSION HAS BEGUN TO FORM PER OBS. SO WHILE A FEW
SEVERE REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...JUST NOT SEEING A GREAT
SETUP AND THUS WILL TONE BACK HAZ WX OUTLOOK FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY WAVE ALOFT FINALLY ESCORTS THE TROUGH AXIS OUT OF THE
AREA TOMORROW AND THIS ALLOWS A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. MAY BE A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FEATURE BY MID AFTERNOON...SO CARRIED THIS CHANCE FROM
NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF THIS
FRONT AND MAKES FOR A COMFORTABLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 50S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY
NIGHT. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUESDAY. SO TOOK
A CONSENSUS FORECAST AND RAISED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST. THE
ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST WITH THE RETURN PCPN...BUT THE REMAINING
MODELS KEEP THE FA DRY...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE MAJORITY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WRMFNT DEVELOPS OVER THE OH VLY...
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNTIL STABLE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SCT TSRA. THU NGT INTO FRI...H5 WAVE SWINGS UP THE OH VLY
ADDING EXTRA LIFT AND IT DRIVES A CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
CHC OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST
WILL LEAVE ALL TAF LOCATIONS DRY THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. AFTER
SUNRISE...CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY...GUSTING UP TO 25 KT.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...LATTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
909 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS IT INTERACTS WITH A 30-50KT LLJ. LATEST INDICATIONS
FROM THE LOCAL MODEL AND HRRR HAS THE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO
AN MCS...DIVING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH THE EASTERN EDGE ENTERING
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z. GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE
STRONGER PORTION OF THE LLJ SHOULD KEEP THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE
POTENTIAL DECREASING AS THE MCS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MCS
SHOULD MOSTLY AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SINCE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE CONVECTION IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA
AND TO TWEAK TEMPS BASED ON CLOUD COVER. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR MORE WARMER TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS FROM
THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 85 68 81 / 20 30 50 60
FSM 62 85 67 84 / 10 10 10 40
MLC 65 86 69 85 / 10 20 20 40
BVO 66 83 66 79 / 20 30 50 60
FYV 58 81 62 80 / 10 10 20 50
BYV 58 80 62 80 / 10 10 20 50
MKO 64 85 67 83 / 10 20 30 50
MIO 63 83 66 78 / 10 30 40 60
F10 65 85 68 83 / 20 30 30 50
HHW 64 87 69 88 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
1020 AM PDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WA/ID/MT WILL PUSH AN EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SE
WASHINGTON AND NE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...BUT A 100 KNOT JET ALONG THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRI-CITIES, PENDLETON, AND UKIAH EAST TO THE
IDAHO BORDER. BASED UPON THE HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWING
CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN...THE FORECAST
WAS UPDATED TO EXTEND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER WEST TO INCLUDE
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH DIME TO PENNY-SIZE HAIL...BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND A WEAK MARINE PUSH WILL RESULT IN 20-30 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...THEREFORE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE BREEZY ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH MOST SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. WISTER
AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM EAST OF A LINE FROM KPSC TO KPDT THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDS
WILL BE AT 5-8 THOUSAND FEET. WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KT FROM THE NW
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH AFTER
06Z TONIGHT. ML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM PDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS.
MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT MAY PASS IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT ONLY ANTICIPATE OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
BRIEF INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO BE ASSOCIATED. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 73 48 75 50 / 10 10 0 0
ALW 74 53 77 55 / 20 20 0 0
PSC 79 51 80 53 / 10 10 0 0
YKM 78 47 79 49 / 10 10 0 0
HRI 77 50 79 52 / 10 10 0 0
ELN 74 48 79 50 / 10 10 0 0
RDM 72 37 77 39 / 10 10 0 0
LGD 69 44 72 46 / 20 20 10 10
GCD 67 43 70 45 / 10 10 0 0
DLS 77 52 80 54 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
85/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
855 AM PDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WA/ID/MT WILL PUSH AN EMBEDDED WAVE OVER SE
WASHINGTON AND NE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...BUT A 100 KNOT JET ALONG THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRI-CITIES, PENDLETON, AND UKIAH EAST TO THE
IDAHO BORDER. BASED UPON THE HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWING
CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN...THE FORECAST
WAS UPDATED TO EXTEND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER WEST TO INCLUDE
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH DIME TO PENNY-SIZE HAIL...BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND A WEAK MARINE PUSH WILL RESULT IN 20-30 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...THEREFORE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE BREEZY ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH MOST SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. WISTER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM PDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS.
MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT MAY PASS IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT ONLY ANTICIPATE OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
BRIEF INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO BE ASSOCIATED. WEBER
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5-8 THOUSAND FEET TODAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10-20 KT FROM THE NW WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 73 48 75 50 / 10 10 0 0
ALW 74 53 77 55 / 20 20 0 0
PSC 79 51 80 53 / 10 10 0 0
YKM 78 47 79 49 / 10 10 0 0
HRI 77 50 79 52 / 10 10 0 0
ELN 74 48 79 50 / 10 10 0 0
RDM 72 37 77 39 / 10 10 0 0
LGD 69 44 72 46 / 20 20 10 10
GCD 67 43 70 45 / 10 10 0 0
DLS 77 52 80 54 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
85/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1034 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MOIST AIR OVER OUR REGION WILL BE DISPLACED BY A COLD FRONT
TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION
WITH GENERALLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MID
WEEK. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AS A NEW WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION /STILL MAINLY JUST SHOWERS AT 14Z/ CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ZONES. BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TODAY IS IF THE
CONVECTION CAN ATTAIN ANY MEASURE OF ORGANIZATION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE /FROM KY LAST NIGHT/ IS
CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS CWA AND SOME ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION IS
BEING SEEN...THOUGH STILL JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW BOLTS OF
LIGHTNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE NE...BECOMING A DIMINISHING
FACTOR IN TODAY/S WEATHER BY 18Z. SO...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS MAY COME DOWN TO HEATING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY STREAMING OVERHEAD THOUGH...BUT POTENTIAL FOR
THIS AREA TO BREAK OUT INTO THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND EXITING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW CAPES TO RISE TO AROUND 1500. SPC DOES
HAVE SE HALF OF FCST AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ROTATE THROUGH LATER
TODAY. AND HRRR STILL ATTEMPTS TO INITIATE AND ORGANIZE A LINE OF
CONVECTION AFTER 16Z ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...BUT AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES MAY HAVE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT FOR A STRONGER TSTM
LINE TO HAPPEN BEFORE EXITING CWA TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP ENHANCED WORDING GOING IN EASTERN SECTIONS AND SEE HOW THIS
ALL PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM MUGGY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST WIDESPREAD VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
FOR A WHILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AS TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THRU SERN PA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH A WAVY FEATURE STILL
STUCK OVER SERN PA INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE THE SURFACE FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL DEL MARVA AREA TO
NORTHERN NJ. THE GEFS AND SREF FOLLOW THEIR OPERATIONAL
COUNTERPARTS PRETTY CLOSELY SO ONCE AGAIN I HAD TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND KEPT THE SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. I DID DRY THINGS OUT THEREAFTER BUT THE 06Z NAM STILL
LEANS TOWARD THE 00Z SOLUTION OF A SLOWER WAVY FRONT...SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THIS A BIT.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH THE LAST OF THE 60S DEWPOINTS BEING SHOVED OFF TO THE SE IN
TIME. HOW FAST THEY EXIT THE REGION ALTOGETHER WILL DEPEND ON THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE CHILLY 60S OVER THE NW...WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. HIGHS NEAR 80 IN THE SE WILL BE VERY NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN OUT OF THE GR LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
SOME DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TUESDAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WE SHOULD SET UP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASING MOIST AIR. MEANWHILE THE MODELS WANT
TO CARVE OUT A BROAD SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
SUGGESTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT MID WEEK...POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. I REINTRODUCED THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS
RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A NEGATIVE NAO COULD SIGNAL THIS
EASTERN TROUGH STICKING AROUND FOR A WHILE WITH THE GEFS SHOWING
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES OUT AS FAR
AS DAY 7.
OF NOTE IS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
NHC SAYS IT HAS NO CHANCE OF TURING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM
TO WANT TO DRAG AT LEAST SOME OF THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS USUAL
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THE FINE DETAILS WITH THE GFS TAKING THE
SLUG OF MOISTURE OFF THE SERN US COAST...THE ECMWF TAKING THINGS A
FAIR DISTANCE UP THE COAST AND THE CANADIAN TAKING A FULL BLOWN
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY. COULD BE
AN INTERESTING END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. BEFORE IT
ARRIVES...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO WORK
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. VFR FOR MANY SPOTS TODAY...BUT A BAND OF
MVFR LIKELY WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING LINE OF CONVECTION.
PARTIAL CLEARING INTO THE SE BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER LINE OF TSTMS TO FORM AND POSS IMPACT KIPT-KSEG-KMDT-
KLNS-KTHV THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORT-LIVED BUT VERY RESTRICTIVE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS/FOG POSS EARLY OVR W MTNS.
TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...ISOLD PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MOIST AIR OVER OUR REGION WILL BE DISPLACED BY A COLD FRONT
TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION
WITH GENERALLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MID
WEEK. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AS A NEW WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MY NW MOUNT IAN
ZONES. THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS UP IN NY STATE...WITH THE
LINE BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE RAGGED LOOKING DOWN INTO SWRN PA.
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TODAY IS IF THE CONVECTION CAN ATTAIN ANY
MEASURE OF ORGANIZATION AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. SPS HAS
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...BUT AS USUAL MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HEATING. SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME GRASPING THE MODE OF
CONVECTION THAT WE CAN EXPECT WITH THE FRONT. THE RAP SHOWS
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS WHILE THE HRRR HAS MORE OF A LINEAR
LOOKING FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PA BY MID MORNING...BUT
CURIOUSLY WEAKENS THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST DURING WHAT SHOULD
BECOME THE MOST UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS DOES A LOT TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS
TODAY. AS FOR POPS...I ENDED UP GOING WITH A GMOS/SREF COMPROMISE
AND HAVE A LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS TOUGH.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM MUGGY DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS
DUE TO SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST
WIDESPREAD VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY FOR A WHILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AS TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THRU SERN PA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH A WAVY FEATURE STILL
STUCK OVER SERN PA INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE THE SURFACE FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL DEL MARVA AREA TO
NORTHERN NJ. THE GEFS AND SREF FOLLOW THEIR OPERATIONAL
COUNTERPARTS PRETTY CLOSELY SO ONCE AGAIN I HAD TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND KEPT THE SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. I DID DRY THINGS OUT THEREAFTER BUT THE 06Z NAM STILL
LEANS TOWARD THE 00Z SOLUTION OF A SLOWER WAVY FRONT...SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THIS A BIT.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH THE LAST OF THE 60S DEWPOINTS BEING SHOVED OFF TO THE SE IN
TIME. HOW FAST THEY EXIT THE REGION ALTOGETHER WILL DEPEND ON THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE CHILLY 60S OVER THE NW...WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. HIGHS NEAR 80 IN THE SE WILL BE VERY NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN OUT OF THE GR LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
SOME DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TUESDAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WE SHOULD SET UP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASING MOIST AIR. MEANWHILE THE MODELS WANT
TO CARVE OUT A BROAD SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
SUGGESTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT MID WEEK...POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. I REINTRODUCED THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS
RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A NEGATIVE NAO COULD SIGNAL THIS
EASTERN TROUGH STICKING AROUND FOR A WHILE WITH THE GEFS SHOWING
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES OUT AS FAR
AS DAY 7.
OF NOTE IS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
NHC SAYS IT HAS NO CHANCE OF TURING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM
TO WANT TO DRAG AT LEAST SOME OF THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS USUAL
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THE FINE DETAILS WITH THE GFS TAKING THE
SLUG OF MOISTURE OFF THE SERN US COAST...THE ECMWF TAKING THINGS A
FAIR DISTANCE UP THE COAST AND THE CANADIAN TAKING A FULL BLOWN
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY. COULD BE
AN INTERESTING END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN BATCH OF STORMS MOVED ACROSS NW PA OVERNIGHT...IN THE
AREA WITH THE STRONGER LLJ.
SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. VFR FOR MANY SPOTS TODAY...BUT IFR AND MVFR
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY BFD AND JST THIS MORNING.
PARTIAL CLEARING INTO THE SE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK
WAVE MAY BRING SOME LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS TO THE SE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS/FOG POSS EARLY OVR W MTNS.
TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...ISOLD PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
543 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MOIST AIR OVER OUR REGION WILL BE DISPLACED BY A COLD FRONT
TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION
WITH GENERALLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MID
WEEK. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AS A NEW WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MY NW MOUNT IAN
ZONES. THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS UP IN NY STATE...WITH THE
LINE BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE RAGGED LOOKING DOWN INTO SWRN PA.
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TODAY IS IF THE CONVECTION CAN ATTAIN ANY
MEASURE OF ORGANIZATION AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. SPS HAS
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...BUT AS USUAL MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HEATING. SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME GRASPING THE MODE OF
CONVECTION THAT WE CAN EXPECT WITH THE FRONT. THE RAP SHOWS
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS WHILE THE HRRR HAS MORE OF A LINEAR
LOOKING FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PA BY MID MORNING...BUT
CURIOUSLY WEAKENS THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST DURING WHAT SHOULD
BECOME THE MOST UNSTABLE PART OF THE DAY. THIS DOES A LOT TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS
TODAY. AS FOR POPS...I ENDED UP GOING WITH A GMOS/SREF COMPROMISE
AND HAVE A LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS TOUGH.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM MUGGY DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS
DUE TO SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST
WIDESPREAD VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY FOR A WHILE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AS TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THRU SERN PA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH A WAVY FEATURE STILL
STUCK OVER SERN PA INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE THE SURFACE FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL DEL MARVA AREA TO
NORTHERN NJ. THE GEFS AND SREF FOLLOW THEIR OPERATIONAL
COUNTERPARTS PRETTY CLOSELY SO ONCE AGAIN I HAD TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND KEPT THE SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. I DID DRY THINGS OUT THEREAFTER BUT THE 06Z NAM STILL
LEANS TOWARD THE 00Z SOLUTION OF A SLOWER WAVY FRONT...SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THIS A BIT.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH THE LAST OF THE 60S DEWPOINTS BEING SHOVED OFF TO THE SE IN
TIME. HOW FAST THEY EXIT THE REGION ALTOGETHER WILL DEPEND ON THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE CHILLY 60S OVER THE NW...WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. HIGHS NEAR 80 IN THE SE WILL BE VERY NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN OUT OF THE GR LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
SOME DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TUESDAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WE SHOULD SET UP A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASING MOIST AIR. MEANWHILE THE MODELS WANT
TO CARVE OUT A BROAD SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
SUGGESTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT MID WEEK...POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. I REINTRODUCED THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS
RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A NEGATIVE NAO COULD SIGNAL THIS
EASTERN TROUGH STICKING AROUND FOR A WHILE WITH THE GEFS SHOWING
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES OUT AS FAR
AS DAY 7.
OF NOTE IS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
NHC SAYS IT HAS NO CHANCE OF TURING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM
TO WANT TO DRAG AT LEAST SOME OF THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS USUAL
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THE FINE DETAILS WITH THE GFS TAKING THE
SLUG OF MOISTURE OFF THE SERN US COAST...THE ECMWF TAKING THINGS A
FAIR DISTANCE UP THE COAST AND THE CANADIAN TAKING A FULL BLOWN
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY. COULD BE
AN INTERESTING END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...SOME SHOWERS INTO BFD. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKEN...BUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
BEST LLJ AND DYNAMICS LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AT THIS
POINT. BFD WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT.
AREAS TO THE EAST WILL HAVE LESS CHANCE...AS SFC CONVERGENCE
IS RATHER WEAK.
HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS FRONT SLOWS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY...AS EDGE OF VERY DRY AIR
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS/FOG POSS EARLY OVR W MTNS.
TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...ISOLD PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING OVER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM...JUST WHEN IT APPEARED CONVECTION WAS FINISHED FOR
THE NIGHT...NEW CELLS HAVE BEGUN POPPING UP ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE PIEDMONT IN THE LAST HOUR. THIS ISN/T COMPLETELY
SURPRISING...AS THE RAP SHOWS ANOTHER H5 VORT MAX ENTERING THE CWFA
FROM THE WEST ATOP LAPS CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AREAS
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. PERHAPS THERE IS ALREADY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF
THE MTNS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BNDRYS THAT ARE ENUF
TO KICK OFF NEW CONVECTION. OVERALL...IT SHUD BE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
HOWEVER...THEY HAVE BEEN TENDING TO BE SLOW-MOVING OR STATIONARY. SO
THERE IS A SMALL EXCESSIVE RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT THRU THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. I BASED THE UPDATED POP TRENDS ON THE 00Z HRRR...WHICH
KEEPS A FAIR AMT OF CONVECTION THRU ABOUT 06-07Z...MAINLY IN THE
UPSTATE AND SWRN NC PIEDMONT.
LATE TONIGHT...AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND IT. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE...BUT EVEN WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERING...SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
DESPITE A SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE DAY...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL...AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT...AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MASS IS WARMED MORE READILY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE WEAKLY CAPPED ON
TUESDAY...AND ONLY MINIMAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LLVL WINDS
OUT OF THE E TO NE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE QUITE WEAK AND NO SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION.
ABOUT THE ONLY FORCING WILL BE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE AND SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP...THOUGH THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW END OF THE SCATTERED RANGE. THE WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT NOTHING IN THE MODELS
INDICATES THAT CONVECTION WILL LIVE MUCH AFTER DARK AND I TAPER POPS
BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
BY THURSDAY THE NAM BECOMES QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW IN THE GULF. IT ALSO BRINGS A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
AND THE NAM HAS BEEN REJECTED FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
STILL...THE GFS HAS 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINNING TO APPROACH WITH THE
NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND NOT FROM THE GULF LIKE THE NAM DOES. THIS
SHOULD BRING GOOD COVERAGE TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY
RAIN. I HAVE 50 POPS FOR THE AFTN HOURS...THOUGH THAT WILL PROBABLY
GO UP IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES AS THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UNTIL
THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OR IT/S
EXACT TRACK. REGARDLESS OF THAT DEVELOPMENT...THERE WILL BE QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WE SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL AND/OR EXTRATROPICAL WAVE.
STILL...WITH WEAK SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION I WOULDN/T EXPECT THAT
WE WILL SEE MUCH LLVL DRYING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALBEIT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD. BY MONDAY THE ERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO AMPLY
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BRING
GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO REGION ON DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FRONTAL BNDRY IS PROGGED TO STALL ROUGHLY ALONG THE
NC/SC BORDER OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
LINGERING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE BNDRY SAGS SWD ACRS THE NC
PIEDMONT. SO WILL KEEP A TEMPO FOR FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF TAF.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLOW-MOVING OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE NE...WHICH MAY
REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND 0100 TO 0130Z...PRODUCING A NE WIND THAT
SHUD BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. FLOW LATER THIS EVENING SHUD FAVOR A N/NE
DIRECTION...AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED ON HOW MUCH FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOIST
LLVLS. STILL THINK IT WILL BE MAINLY A FOG EVENT...BUT STRATUS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP...SO WILL KEEP THE 5SM VSBY AND ADDED A SCT025 FOR MVFR
STRATUS. IF STRATUS DEVELOPS...IT MAY BE LOWER THAN THAT. AFTER
DAYBREAK...A SCATTERED CU FIELD IS EXPECTED WITH AN ENE WIND. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD WHERE THE BETTER INSTBY
WILL BE TUE AFTN...BUT POP NOT HIGH ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN
THIS TAF.
ELSEWHERE...LINGERING CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NC
PIEDMONT DURING THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS A
FEW SHRA DEVELOPING THIS EVE ACRS THE NC MTNS AND THE SC
UPSTATE...AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. COVERAGE SHUD
STAY ISOLD...SO NO MENTION WILL BE CARRIED OUTSIDE KHKY. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED ON HOW MUCH FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. HAVE SOME MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING LATER TNGT...LINGERING THRU DAYBREAK. GENERALLY AN E WIND
WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TUE AFTN...WITH A FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE UPSTATE. POP NOT HIGH ENUF TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THESE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY IN A PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WED AND THU MORNINGS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
RETURN TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THU-SAT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 88% HIGH 83% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 91% HIGH 83% HIGH 93% HIGH 96%
KAVL HIGH 88% MED 69% HIGH 93% HIGH 91%
KHKY HIGH 97% HIGH 91% HIGH 91% HIGH 96%
KGMU HIGH 88% HIGH 80% HIGH 91% HIGH 96%
KAND HIGH 83% HIGH 83% HIGH 92% HIGH 96%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
736 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OF
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THE
LLWS REMARK...BUT WILL BE WATCHING OF COURSE. ALSO...WATCHING
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFT EASTWARD SO FAR THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...STILL NO
INDICATION THESE WILL TURN SOUTH WHILE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT. SINCE WE ARE WITHIN THE 9 HOUR WINDOW WE CHOSE TO
LEAVE TS MENTION OUT DUE TO UNCERTAIN CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WE ARE WATCHING IS IN EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THAT
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING A COLD POOL THAT SHOULD ALLOW PROGRESSION
PERHAPS CLOSE TO THE TEXAS LINE...THOUGH SOLUTIONS ALSO DIVERGE
REGARDING WHAT OCCURS NEXT THERE AS WELL. ANYWAY... WILL UPDATE AS
NEEDED. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGE/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW KS INTO NE NM. OTHER ISOLD STORMS FORMING IN HIGHER
TERRAIN VCNTY RUIDOSO NM. A FEW CU ALSO STARTING TO FORM ALONG AND
EAST OF CAPROCK WHERE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES.
PRIMARY SHORTWV ENERGY FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ALONG DIFFUSE
DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN PNHDL INTO WRN OK. THESE STORMS SHOULD TURN SE INTO
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS EVENING AND COULD BRUSH THE
FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA AFTER 7 PM. WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER AREA
OF ENHANCED LIFT ROTATING ACROSS WESTERN NM ATTM AND THIS FEATURE
COULD ALSO AID IN HIGH BASED STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS
TAPPING INTO REMAINING INSTABILITY ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE.
INITIATION FURTHER SOUTH ALONG SOUTHERN EXTENT OF DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH
LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF DEEP LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CONTINUES FROM TULIA SW TOWARD LEVELLAND. WITH A FEW
MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND POSSIBILITY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY
AND WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG CAPROCK HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS VCNTY
CHILDRESS. ALSO KEPT SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE AREA OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
PLAINVIEW AS NM ACTIVITY COULD SURVIVE TRACK EASTWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVERNIGHT MIXING LOW LEVELS AND
HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY HOT DAY
TUE AS DRYLINE MIXES INTO ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS BENEATH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TUE AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY
EXITING OUR PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID EVENING.
LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY EVENING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 50KT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL MOSTLY BE LIFTING DRY AIR.
THEREFORE...CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 00Z. THESE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL ALSO
KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL LOW LEVEL STRATUS NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE
PANHANDLE. THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY PASS OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK MAY BE OUR FINAL CHANCE TO MISS OUT ON RAIN
FOR THE SPRING SEASON. UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PLACE WEST TEXAS IN AN
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT REGION OF A 70KT JET. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO WEST TEXAS.
HOWEVER THIS DAY WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND MAKE A PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME. MEANINGFUL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE ABOVE THE
FRONTAL ZONE BY THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GET A PRONOUNCED BOOST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST VALUES OFF THE CAPROCK. THEREFORE WE WILL
FINALLY GET TO SEE DEEPER WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. PROGGED WCD VALUES AT
THE MOMENT ARE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0KM. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WINDS DO
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY BREEZY FOR A BONAFIDE HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...CONVECTION AND SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BACKING MOISTURE UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO.
CONVECTION MAY THEN FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENINGS. BUT BETTER COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. A
LARGE SUMMER TIME RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL APPEAR TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE DEVELOPING AN
OMEGA BLOCK. JDV
FIRE WEATHER...
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST TUE AFTN WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTN RH
VALUES WILL END UP IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WHILE SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 97 62 85 57 / 20 10 10 20 40
TULIA 68 99 63 86 58 / 20 10 10 20 40
PLAINVIEW 69 102 64 89 60 / 20 10 10 20 40
LEVELLAND 65 102 66 95 61 / 20 0 0 20 40
LUBBOCK 69 104 68 95 62 / 20 0 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 63 103 67 99 62 / 10 0 0 20 30
BROWNFIELD 65 104 68 99 62 / 20 0 0 20 30
CHILDRESS 68 102 69 92 64 / 20 20 20 20 50
SPUR 69 106 70 98 64 / 20 10 10 20 40
ASPERMONT 70 105 71 101 67 / 10 20 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD IS SHRINKING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...
LINGERING -RA OVER KLBX`S VICINITY. VFR WITH LIGHT NORTH/VRB
BREEZES THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE HIGH CLOUD DECK BREAKING UP TO
MAINLY SKY CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. CLEAR AND CALM EARLY MORNING
CONDITIONS...WITH A DAMP GROUND...WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO THE FORMATION OF SHORT-LIVED SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS PUSHED TO THE COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM
SE TX. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO
GALVESTON AND THEN WEST TOWARD COTULLA. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO
FILTER INTO SE TX WITH SFC DEW PTS NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WET GROUND WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING
TODAY SO HAVE TRIMMED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO ERODE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS STILL
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL SHOWS SOME REDVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY. NEW ZONES OUT BY 11 AM. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z THIS MORNING...AND OFF THE
COAST BETWEEN 14 AND 18Z. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST FROM THE NORTH AT
25 TO 25 KNOTS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1 MILE IN HEAVY RAIN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE LINE WITH ALL
TERMINALS VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. 44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN FROM SOUTH OF
LUFKIN TO COLLEGE STATION. RAIN GAUGES IN TRINITY COUNTY ARE
PICKING UP AS MUCH AS 2.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS AND AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
OF THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR. ALSO SEEING A SIGNS OF A REAR
INFLOW JET DEVELOPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF CONVECTION CLOSING IN ON
BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION. BASED ON IR IMAGERY SEEMS CLOUD TOPS ARE
COOLING MORE SO EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 2
TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR LIKE ALREADY OBSERVED. STORM MOTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS IN 10 TO 2O MPH BUT COULD SEE CELLS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH
COULD TRAIN ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL. SFC
ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH FROM
THE ARLATEX THROUGH C TX INTO THE NW HILL COUNTRY. LOOK FOR
CURRENT CONVECTION TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY OUT RUN IT BY A GOOD BIT. THE 00Z HIRES-WRF-ARW/TXTECH
WRF AND HRRR ALL SHOW CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING SOUTH
THROUGH SE TX IN A BROKEN LINE. THE LINE THEN WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. DECIDED TO KEEP SOME 50/60
POPS THROUGH 12-15Z AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES.
LOOKS LIKE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY GO THROUGH ADDITIONAL
MODIFICATIONS DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS
MORNING. DO THINK THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WORK OVER AND STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS GOOD BUT IT COULD BE DRY.
AS IT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED BEFORE...MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS
WORKING THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING THIS MORNING. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT TO WEAKEN AS WELL. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN STILL
THIS MORNING AND THREAT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER
VALUES THIS MORNING PEAK INVOF CONVECTION AROUND 1.8-2.0 INCHES
AND DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS STILL BRING WEAK FRONT
TO THE COAST AND POSSIBLY OFF THE COAST. EXPECT SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOW 60S WHICH WILL SEEM QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN
THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS OF LATE. THIS ALSO MEANS SEASONABLE MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S FOR MON/TUE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER S TX THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE
DOES SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE N PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS
INTRODUCES NW FLOW ALOFT OVER TX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO TX ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD INITIATE A FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND N TX. POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
COULD WORK INTO SE TX. WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
AS WITH TROPICAL SEASON WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT
CONVECTION BECOMING ORGANIZED AGAIN FROM REMNANTS OF BARBARA BY
TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO BRING THIS NEW SYSTEM INTO FLORIDA
THUR/FRI TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR
SO TOUGH TO KNOW HOW ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME. NONETHELESS
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A THREAT FOR THE TX
COAST.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF A VERY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 92 68 93 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 92 69 93 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 88 76 88 77 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1053 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS PUSHED TO THE COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM
SE TX. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO
GALVESTON AND THEN WEST TOWARD COTULLA. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO
FILTER INTO SE TX WITH SFC DEW PTS NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WET GROUND WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING
TODAY SO HAVE TRIMMED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO ERODE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS STILL
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL SHOWS SOME REDVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY. NEW ZONES OUT BY 11 AM. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z THIS MORNING...AND OFF THE
COAST BETWEEN 14 AND 18Z. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST FROM THE NORTH AT
25 TO 25 KNOTS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1 MILE IN HEAVY RAIN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE LINE WITH ALL
TERMINALS VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. 44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN FROM SOUTH OF
LUFKIN TO COLLEGE STATION. RAIN GAUGES IN TRINITY COUNTY ARE
PICKING UP AS MUCH AS 2.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS AND AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
OF THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR. ALSO SEEING A SIGNS OF A REAR
INFLOW JET DEVELOPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF CONVECTION CLOSING IN ON
BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION. BASED ON IR IMAGERY SEEMS CLOUD TOPS ARE
COOLING MORE SO EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 2
TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR LIKE ALREADY OBSERVED. STORM MOTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS IN 10 TO 2O MPH BUT COULD SEE CELLS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH
COULD TRAIN ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL. SFC
ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH FROM
THE ARLATEX THROUGH C TX INTO THE NW HILL COUNTRY. LOOK FOR
CURRENT CONVECTION TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY OUT RUN IT BY A GOOD BIT. THE 00Z HIRES-WRF-ARW/TXTECH
WRF AND HRRR ALL SHOW CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING SOUTH
THROUGH SE TX IN A BROKEN LINE. THE LINE THEN WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. DECIDED TO KEEP SOME 50/60
POPS THROUGH 12-15Z AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES.
LOOKS LIKE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY GO THROUGH ADDITIONAL
MODIFICATIONS DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS
MORNING. DO THINK THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WORK OVER AND STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS GOOD BUT IT COULD BE DRY.
AS IT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED BEFORE...MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS
WORKING THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING THIS MORNING. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT TO WEAKEN AS WELL. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN STILL
THIS MORNING AND THREAT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER
VALUES THIS MORNING PEAK INVOF CONVECTION AROUND 1.8-2.0 INCHES
AND DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS STILL BRING WEAK FRONT
TO THE COAST AND POSSIBLY OFF THE COAST. EXPECT SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOW 60S WHICH WILL SEEM QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN
THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS OF LATE. THIS ALSO MEANS SEASONABLE MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S FOR MON/TUE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER S TX THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE
DOES SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE N PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS
INTRODUCES NW FLOW ALOFT OVER TX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO TX ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD INITIATE A FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND N TX. POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
COULD WORK INTO SE TX. WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
AS WITH TROPICAL SEASON WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT
CONVECTION BECOMING ORGANIZED AGAIN FROM REMNANTS OF BARBARA BY
TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO BRING THIS NEW SYSTEM INTO FLORIDA
THUR/FRI TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR
SO TOUGH TO KNOW HOW ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME. NONETHELESS
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A THREAT FOR THE TX
COAST.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF A VERY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 89 64 92 68 93 / 20 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 89 67 92 69 93 / 20 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 85 75 88 76 88 / 60 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z THIS MORNING...AND OFF THE
COAST BETWEEN 14 AND 18Z. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST FROM THE NORTH AT
25 TO 25 KNOTS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1 MILE IN HEAVY RAIN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE LINE WITH ALL
TERMINALS VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. 44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN FROM SOUTH OF
LUFKIN TO COLLEGE STATION. RAIN GAUGES IN TRINITY COUNTY ARE
PICKING UP AS MUCH AS 2.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS AND AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
OF THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR. ALSO SEEING A SIGNS OF A REAR
INFLOW JET DEVELOPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF CONVECTION CLOSING IN ON
BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION. BASED ON IR IMAGERY SEEMS CLOUD TOPS ARE
COOLING MORE SO EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 2
TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR LIKE ALREADY OBSERVED. STORM MOTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS IN 10 TO 2O MPH BUT COULD SEE CELLS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH
COULD TRAIN ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL. SFC
ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH FROM
THE ARLATEX THROUGH C TX INTO THE NW HILL COUNTRY. LOOK FOR
CURRENT CONVECTION TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY OUT RUN IT BY A GOOD BIT. THE 00Z HIRES-WRF-ARW/TXTECH
WRF AND HRRR ALL SHOW CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING SOUTH
THROUGH SE TX IN A BROKEN LINE. THE LINE THEN WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. DECIDED TO KEEP SOME 50/60
POPS THROUGH 12-15Z AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES.
LOOKS LIKE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY GO THROUGH ADDITIONAL
MODIFICATIONS DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS
MORNING. DO THINK THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WORK OVER AND STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS GOOD BUT IT COULD BE DRY.
AS IT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED BEFORE...MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS
WORKING THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING THIS MORNING. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT TO WEAKEN AS WELL. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN STILL
THIS MORNING AND THREAT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER
VALUES THIS MORNING PEAK INVOF CONVECTION AROUND 1.8-2.0 INCHES
AND DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS STILL BRING WEAK FRONT
TO THE COAST AND POSSIBLY OFF THE COAST. EXPECT SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOW 60S WHICH WILL SEEM QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN
THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS OF LATE. THIS ALSO MEANS SEASONABLE MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S FOR MON/TUE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER S TX THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE
DOES SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE N PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS
INTRODUCES NW FLOW ALOFT OVER TX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO TX ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD INITIATE A FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND N TX. POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
COULD WORK INTO SE TX. WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
AS WITH TROPICAL SEASON WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT
CONVECTION BECOMING ORGANIZED AGAIN FROM REMNANTS OF BARBARA BY
TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO BRING THIS NEW SYSTEM INTO FLORIDA
THUR/FRI TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR
SO TOUGH TO KNOW HOW ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME. NONETHELESS
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A THREAT FOR THE TX
COAST.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF A VERY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 89 64 92 68 93 / 30 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 67 92 69 93 / 70 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 75 88 76 88 / 60 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
445 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN FROM SOUTH OF
LUFKIN TO COLLEGE STATION. RAIN GAUGES IN TRINITY COUNTY ARE
PICKING UP AS MUCH AS 2.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS AND AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
OF THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR. ALSO SEEING A SIGNS OF A REAR
INFLOW JET DEVELOPING IN THE BACK SIDE OF CONVECTION CLOSING IN ON
BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION. BASED ON IR IMAGERY SEEMS CLOUD TOPS ARE
COOLING MORE SO EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 2
TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR LIKE ALREADY OBSERVED. STORM MOTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS IN 10 TO 2O MPH BUT COULD SEE CELLS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH
COULD TRAIN ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL. SFC
ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH FROM
THE ARLATEX THROUGH C TX INTO THE NW HILL COUNTRY. LOOK FOR
CURRENT CONVECTION TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY OUT RUN IT BY A GOOD BIT. THE 00Z HIRES-WRF-ARW/TXTECH
WRF AND HRRR ALL SHOW CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING SOUTH
THROUGH SE TX IN A BROKEN LINE. THE LINE THEN WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. DECIDED TO KEEP SOME 50/60
POPS THROUGH 12-15Z AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES.
LOOKS LIKE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY GO THROUGH ADDITIONAL
MODIFICATIONS DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS
MORNING. DO THINK THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WORK OVER AND STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS GOOD BUT IT COULD BE DRY.
AS IT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED BEFORE...MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS
WORKING THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING THIS MORNING. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT TO WEAKEN AS WELL. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN STILL
THIS MORNING AND THREAT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER
VALUES THIS MORNING PEAK INVOF CONVECTION AROUND 1.8-2.0 INCHES
AND DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS STILL BRING WEAK FRONT
TO THE COAST AND POSSIBLY OFF THE COAST. EXPECT SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOW 60S WHICH WILL SEEM QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN
THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS OF LATE. THIS ALSO MEANS SEASONABLE MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S FOR MON/TUE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER S TX THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE
DOES SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE N PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS
INTRODUCES NW FLOW ALOFT OVER TX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO TX ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD INITIATE A FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND N TX. POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
COULD WORK INTO SE TX. WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
AS WITH TROPICAL SEASON WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT
CONVECTION BECOMING ORGANIZED AGAIN FROM REMNANTS OF BARBARA BY
TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO BRING THIS NEW SYSTEM INTO FLORIDA
THUR/FRI TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR
SO TOUGH TO KNOW HOW ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME. NONETHELESS
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A THREAT FOR THE TX
COAST.
39
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF A VERY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 89 64 92 68 93 / 30 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 67 92 69 93 / 50 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 75 88 76 88 / 50 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1016 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS THAT MOVED IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE STRONG EARLY
JUNE SUN IS STARTING TO CHIP AWAY AT THE CLOUD DECK...WITH A HOLE
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTH...AND SOME OF THE STRATUS TAKING A
CELLULAR APPEARANCE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE AREA SOME
DIFFERENCES IN NAM...RAP...AND LOCAL WRF MODEL LOW LEVEL RH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE NAM DRIES THINGS OUT THE
QUICKEST...BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE RAP HOLDING ON TO HIGHER
RH INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THOUGH THAT ANY
HOLES THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE FILLED WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH SUN TODAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS
ONLY RISING TO ABOUT 10C BY LATE AFTERNOON...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR HIGH TEMPS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
SHORT TERM MODELS AS TO WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...WITH THE
RAP HOLDING ONTO SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY
SPLIT THE TIMING DIFFERENCE FOR NOW...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY MID AFTERNOON.
LOOKS VERY QUIET TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. PRETTY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS...COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WILL RESULT
IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL WELL INTO THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME
UPPER 30S IN FAVORED LOW SPOTS. THE LOW TEMP FORECAST COULD BE
RUINED IF THOSE CLOUDS HANG ON TOO LONG...THIS WOULD KEEP THEM UP
QUITE A BIT.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
SLIDING EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL DURING
THIS TIME.
500MB LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA FROM THE DAKOTAS. AREA OF MODEST 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850MB TO 700MB LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE...ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOW A GENERAL TOP DOWN
MOISTENING OF THE AIR COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...MORE SO ON THE GFS
THAN THE NAM. CONTINUED INCREASING POP TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...IF BETTER COLUMN MOISTURE IS
FOUND. THUNDER MENTION WAS REMOVED TUESDAY NIGHT...AS LITTLE TO
NO INSTABILITY REMAINED IN AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THIS TIME...WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY SIMILAR TRENDS FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. THEY BRING THE 500MB LOW EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. GFS KEEPS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING EAST
ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
THE AREA THURSDAY.
DECENT COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA PER GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME DRY IN THE MID LEVELS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED DURING THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE USING CONSENSUS POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...MAY NEED HIGHER POPS DURING THIS
TIME IF MOISTURE IN AIR COLUMN BECOMES DEEPER.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT COULD BE REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS IF ELEVATED CAPE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY WEAK. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AREA COOL.
GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF SHIFTING THE HIGH TO THE EAST...AND A 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY EARLY
TO MID EVENING...FIRST AT KMSN...FOLLOWED BY KMKE/KUES/KENW. NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AT KMKE/KENW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
ADJUSTED THE PRECIP. CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST
MODEL DATA. RUC/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LATE THIS
EVENING AS LIFT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA MOVES
EAST. POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
AS THE LIFT MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EVENING. AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC
FOR DEVELOP DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE
EXITING STORMS.
OTHERWISE LATEST SREF SHOWS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR FOG LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THIS
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RAINFALL FROM THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES. MORNING. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP AM
THINKING IT WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. AM ANTICIPATING LITTLE IF ANY
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH THE FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIR MASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. ECMWF HAS A LARGER AREA OF DIVERGENT FLOW AT 500 MB OVER
KANSAS COMPARED TO THE GFS...WHICH COULD AID IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE TRI STATE AREA. STRONGEST JET
SHOULD STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH MODERATE 500 MB JET SPEEDS
OF 35-40 KNOTS REACHING OUR IMMEDIATE AREA. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND PUSH
INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS A HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL
PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS A
MORE WIDESPREAD AND LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE PATTERN. THE LOWER LEVEL
JET IS PRETTY MEAGER FOR FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOWER LEVEL JET FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF LOWER LEVEL JET STRENGTH IS AT 25 KNOTS AND THE
GFS IS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THETA E VALUES AT 850 MB
ARE IN THE 330 K RANGE...PROVIDING SOME MOISTURE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THETA E VALUES
LOOK BETTER FOR MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS VALUES RETURN TO BETWEEN
340 AND 350 K.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND
PROGRESS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD. SURFACE THETA E VALUES ARE AROUND 320 FOR
12Z SATURDAY...BUT QUICKLY INCREASES TO BETWEEN 340 AND 350 K FOR
18Z AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. LIFTED
INDICES OF -4 TO -6 C AND CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG SHOULD BE PRESENT
AROUND 18Z SATURDAY TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EASTERN AREA OF THE CWA. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE STRONG FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AREA.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S. SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...BUT AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 90 FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUST OF WIND NEAR
40KTS AT KGLD BASED ON THE BEHAVIOR AT KMCK WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CEILINGS MAY NEAR/MEET IFR CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BUT SOUNDINGS AND CLIMATOLOGY BOTH SUGGEST MVFR WILL
PREVAIL. DURING THE MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. THE LOW CLOUDS/GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1201 AM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
ADJUSTED THE PRECIP. CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST
MODEL DATA. RUC/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LATE THIS
EVENING AS LIFT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA MOVES
EAST. POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
AS THE LIFT MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES SOME OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EVENING. AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC
FOR DEVELOP DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE
EXITING STORMS.
OTHERWISE LATEST SREF SHOWS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR FOG LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THIS
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RAINFALL FROM THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES. MORNING. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP AM
THINKING IT WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. AM ANTICIPATING LITTLE IF ANY
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH THE FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIR MASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW COOL TO MAKE IT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN STARTED OUT BEST AT JET LEVEL. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT
AT MID LEVELS. GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIFT GETTING BETTER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL MID LEVEL LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT REALLY DOES
NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR 06Z AND EVEN MORE SO BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT FOR AN EXPECTED GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THEY WANT TO
START PRECIPITATION WITH SOME START IN THE SOUTH AND GOING NORTH
AND VICE VERSA. TENDED TO BELIEVE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SOLUTION MORE
BUT THIS ALSO CAUSED ME TO BROAD BRUSH THE POPS. LOOKS TO BE ALL
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS
AND WHERE. SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD BUT HOW WET REMAINS IN QUESTION.
ENOUGH DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT I DID NOT GO ABOVE HIGH CHANCE.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
NO MATTER HOW WET IT GETS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW COOL TO MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. COOLEST SOLUTIONS...NAM/CANADIAN...KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
NOT READY TO MAKE THAT DRAMATIC OF A PLUNGE BUT DO SEE THE
POSSIBILITY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE
WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. DID LOWER MAXES BUT POSSIBILITY
IS THERE FOR MUCH MORE LOWERING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL AND JET LIFT
AROUND THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH IT DOES NOT WARM UP DURING THE DAY AND HOW FAST IT CLEARS
OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
DEFINITELY SEE A LOT OF 40S AROUND. DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED...DID TOSS IN SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING FOG. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STARTS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE WARMER BUT NOT
TOO MUCH SINCE WIND FIELD IS LIGHT DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH NOT BEING
TOO FAR AWAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AND SURFACE PATTERN/AIR
MASS REORGANIZES AND RECOVERS FROM PREVIOUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
STILL SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCE AND FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT FELT CONTENT IN
LEAVING IT DRY. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT FELT FINE WITH WHAT THE INIT GRIDS GAVE ME.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AS A
RESULT LEFT ALONE WHAT THE CRH INIT GRIDS GAVE ME. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE IT BEING A LITTLE COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE MINS...BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE TO MAKE ME
WANT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUST OF WIND NEAR
40KTS AT KGLD BASED ON THE BEHAVIOR AT KMCK WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CEILINGS MAY NEAR/MEET IFR CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY BUT SOUNDINGS AND CLIMATOLOGY BOTH SUGGEST MVFR WILL
PREVAIL. DURING THE MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. THE LOW CLOUDS/GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
443 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN
WI. CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE HAS
HELPED BRING CLEARING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH DISSIPATING HIGH
CLOUDS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVER THE CWA.
UPSTREAM...700-500 MB FGEN AND ASSOCIATED 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO CNTRL MN.
TODAY...THE GFS WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY THE AREA OF 300K-305K LIFT. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/NAM/GEM AND HIGH RES MODELS THAT KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN
INTO THE FAR SOUTH OR TO JUST ALONG THE WI BORDER WERE
PREFERRED...GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND
GENERALLY WEAK FORCING. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND. LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS MN
INTO FAR WRN WI. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER NRN WI AND SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE SW HALF OF UPPER
MI. SO...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEAR THE WI BORDER DURING THE
EVENING WITH RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
OVER THE COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE EAST. THICKENING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF AS
MUCH WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE
AFFECTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL
LOOKING LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR SEEING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BROAD 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION...850-500MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...AND 290-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
FOLLOW THAT IDEA...BUT STILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS /LIKELY VALUES/
ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
ROBUST WITH QPF ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING THE SHORTWAVE
AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA...SO POPS/QPF MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED UP FURTHER. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE THE WEST/CENTRAL SEEING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON THURSDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST
THE RAIN WILL REACH. WHEN DEALING WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS RUNNING
INTO THE EXISTING DRY AIR FROM AN EXITING HIGH...THE MODELS TEND TO
OVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE VARIABILITY
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL MENTION CHANCE/SLIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE DIVING SOUTH AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA FROM THE JAMES BAY HIGH...EXPECT DIMINISHING POPS/CLOUDS
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE
SOME MID CLOUDS LINGERING WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTS. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH OVER
NORTHWEST QUEBEC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRY TO WARM
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR /FORECAST HIGHS 60S TO
LOWER 70S/...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER
THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE /AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS
WAVE WILL AMPLIFY A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
DESPITE SOME INCRSG HI CLDS AHEAD OF A WARM FNT TO THE SW AND EVEN
THE CHC OF A -SHRA AT IWD LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS/LIGHT WNDS WITH HI PRES NEAR UPR MI DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO REAL STRONG PRESSURE
SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE AREA. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...WAVES WILL NOT BE
TOO HIGH EITHER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ002>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1108 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE DEPICTED ON 0.5 REFLECTIVITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE...FROM WILLMAR TO
JUST WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INDUCED CONVECTION
HAS SLOWLY BEEN ERODING IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE
19Z. HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF PLACEMENT OF SAID SYSTEM...BUT
HAS LACKED ACCURACY ON EROSION. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATE ENTIRE AREA
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND DISINTEGRATE.
THROTTLED BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING WITH DRYING TREND ANTICIPATED
AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TREKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
HALF OF MN ...PER THE GFS40 305K ANALYSIS. MUCH OF MN FA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM 04/06Z-12Z IN
RESPONSE TO PROXIMITY OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 250MB 90KT SPEED MAX
NOTED ENTERING WEST CENTRAL AND NW MN THIS TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS UPGLIDE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON GFS...NAM80 ALSO BRINGS IN
MODERATE UPGLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM 12Z-18Z ON TUE. WITH THAT
SAID ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR FROM
TUESDAY MORNING INTO LATE TUESDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST PRECIP PROGGED
TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS. SE FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TOMORROW AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AS INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL GLIDE THROUGH MN TUE NIGHT INTO WED ON
ITS WAY INTO NRN WI...PUSHING ALONG ITS SFC REFLECTION LOW PRES
CENTER. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE GREAT LAKES MIDDAY WED...BUT A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
DAY THU. THOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WILL NEED TO KEEP SHWRS IN THE FCST GOING INTO THU UNTIL
THIS SYSTEM AS A WHOLE EXITS THE REGION. A PRONOUNCED SLY PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH QPF/S IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND EVEN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
SLANTWISE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO ENHANCE WIDE-SCALE LIFT.
DESPITE THE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE IN THE AREA...INSTABILITY DOES NOT
APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY COMPACT SO
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEFINITIVE LACK OF EVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN THE FCST BUT ITS COVERAGE WILL BE
QUITE MEAGER. WITH THE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS AND THE ZONAL FLOW
OF THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING ACROSS...THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO
AIRMASS CHANGE...MEANING THAT THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE UPR 50S
TO LWR 60S WHILE LOWS HOLD IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CLEARING-OUT PERIOD WILL ENVELOP
THE AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRI EVE AS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE BUT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS...NUDGING INTO THE
UPR 60S FOR FRI. HOWEVER...THE IMPACT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE BRIEF
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPS IN FROM CANADA...BRINGING A
CONGLOMERATION OF LOW PRES CENTERS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
THRU THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PLUMES OF MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS
TROUGH...MAKING FOR ANOTHER EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HIGHS
AROUND 70. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA LATE SUN INTO
MON...THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE APPRECIABLE WARMUP
AND DRYING OUT PERIOD IS COMING FOR THE EARLY-TO-MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOR GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT
TO STATE AS SUCH WITH GREATER CERTAINTY SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
THE MODELS EVOLVE THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO KAXN AND KRWF AFTER 06Z WITH SHORT RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS THEY
REACH INTO EASTERN MN BY DAYBREAK AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE MORNING. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SD/NE IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME AS IT APPROACHES KAXN AND KRWF OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY VCTS INDICATED. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ON TUESDAY ARE A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
AT ANY OF THE MN TAF SITES. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY AS THE SHOWERS INCREASE WITH IFR CIGS
INDICATED INTO KAXN/KRWF BY LATE IN THE MORNING...AND INTO
KSTC/KMSP/KRNH AND KEAU IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT TRENDED
DOWN ON CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
KMSP...A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE AIRFIELD BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE
IN THE MORNING AND TO IFR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE IFR CIGS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...IFR CIGS BCMG MVFR. -SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 5KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA. WIND NE 10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 5KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST AND BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK
AT 00Z. SFC LOW CIRCULATION WITH UPPER LOW TO BE JUST EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT 21Z. THRU MOST OF THE DAY....DO EXPECT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF UPR LOW AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS
THIS REGION OF OUR FCST AREA (MAINLY IN ZONE FROM ADA-HILLSBORO-
GRAND FORKS BACK THRU DEVILS LAKE).
OF BIG INTEREST IS DRY SLOT JUST EAST OF UPR LOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING LIKELY TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SE ND TODAY. ENOUGH SFC
HEATING INTO THE MID 60S SEEMS PSBL JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY-LISBON
AREA SOUTHWARD WITH SOME MID 50 DEW PTS. 06Z HRRR 3 KM MODEL
INDICATES WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY FROM NR JAMESTOWN TO LISBON TO
WAHPETON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO SOUTH DAKTOA AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF BOUNDARY. NAM12 ALSO SHOWS SOME HEALTHY VGP VALUES
(MORE THAN 0.2) ON NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY FROM RICHLAND COUNTY ND
TO GRIGGS CO ND. PER SWODY1 SOME THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES IN THIS NARROW ZONE AS HAPPENED IN SW ND MON AFTN.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ESE INTO CNTRL MN BY 12Z WED WITH FOCUS OF
RAIN DVL-GFK-PKD REGION...WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL STILL OF OVER AN
INCH SEEMS LIKELY LOCALLY 2 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT ENOUGH
FOR A FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AS RAINFALL RATES DONT
APPEAR TOO GREAT AND AREA UNDER THE GUN NOT QUITE AS WET AS
FARTHER NORTH.
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT WEDNESDAY SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVING DRY
CONDITIONS.
VARIOUS MODELS SEEM IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS FOR THE FRI-MON PERIOD. GEM/ECMWF/GFS/DGEX ALL SHOW A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGING.
ECMWF PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON SW OVER MANITOBA WITH -SHRA OVER
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AT 18Z FRIDAY. SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE
AND HAVE CUT POPS.
FOR SATURDAY RETURN MOISTURE AND A MORE ROBUST WAVE IN W/NW FLOW
SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS WEST TO EAST. WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN TO
THE EAST I LIKE THE IDEA OF A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
INCREASING POPS. CYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND SOME
CAPE ARGUE FOR TSRA.
FOR SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS JUNE THINK THE SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST. GFS/ECMWF SHOW COOLING ALOFT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AT LEAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE WITH THE FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LIKELY ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
VFR CIGS AND VSBY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS RA AND ISOLD T CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NE ACROSS FA. DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT
NW EXTENT OF PCPN. ISOLD T STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN FA WITH
FAR TAF ON NORTHERN FRINGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AFTER A BRIEF STUTTER MONDAY...THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON
CONTINUES A STEADY RECESSION AND IS APPROACHING FS. THE CURRENT
TRENDS LINE UP NICELY WITH THE FORECAST THAT CALLS FOR THE RIVER
TO GO BLO FS BY MID DAY TODAY.
THE TWO RIVER RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS SHOWN A TINY BUMP OVERNIGHT WITH
RASH IN THE AREA...BUT THE CURRENT TREND IS BELOW THE FORECAST. THE
TWO RIVERS AT HALLOCK IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FS LATER TODAY AS
WELL.
OTHERWISE OSLO JUST ABOVE FIS AND SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW FIS LATE
TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. DRAYTON AND PEMBINA BOTH RISING SLOWLY ALONG THE
FORECAST CURVES AND SHOULD STAY BETWEEN FIS AND FS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BARRING AN UNFORESEEN EXCESSIVE RAIN...LOCAL CONTRIBUTION FROM
RAIN TONIGHT WILL CAUSE ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACES.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. AS RIVER LEVELS FALL
DRAINAGE SHOULD INCREASE ALLOWING THE WATERS TO GET OFF THE LAND.
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE THROUGH GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS. ISOLATED
1.0 TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE RAINS MAY CAUSE
MINOR RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS...AND SLOW THE RECESSION ON
RIVERS THAT ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
...UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. SOME SPOTTY
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD MORNING...BUT MAY
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR KBVO/KTUL/KRVS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS IT INTERACTS WITH A 30-50KT LLJ. LATEST INDICATIONS
FROM THE LOCAL MODEL AND HRRR HAS THE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO
AN MCS...DIVING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH THE EASTERN EDGE ENTERING
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z. GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE
STRONGER PORTION OF THE LLJ SHOULD KEEP THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE
POTENTIAL DECREASING AS THE MCS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MCS
SHOULD MOSTLY AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAKEN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SINCE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE CONVECTION IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA
AND TO TWEAK TEMPS BASED ON CLOUD COVER. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR MORE WARMER TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS FROM
THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 85 68 81 / 20 30 50 60
FSM 62 85 67 84 / 10 10 10 40
MLC 65 86 69 85 / 10 20 20 40
BVO 66 83 66 79 / 20 30 50 60
FYV 58 81 62 80 / 10 10 20 50
BYV 58 80 62 80 / 10 10 20 50
MKO 64 85 67 83 / 10 20 30 50
MIO 63 83 66 78 / 10 30 40 60
F10 65 85 68 83 / 20 30 30 50
HHW 64 87 69 88 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING OVER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM...AS ANTICIPATED...THE PAST SEVERAL SFC ANALYSIS REVEAL
THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
SINCE LATE EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP EAST OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GENERALLY...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...EXPECTED TO ASHE OUT
BY 9Z. I WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE NEAR TERM TO CATE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS HAVE COOLED SLOWER THAN FORECASTS...I WILL WARM
MIN A DEGREE OR TWO.
AS OF 1015 PM...JUST WHEN IT APPEARED CONVECTION WAS FINISHED FOR
THE NIGHT...NEW CELLS HAVE BEGUN POPPING UP ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE PIEDMONT IN THE LAST HOUR. THIS ISN/T COMPLETELY
SURPRISING...AS THE RAP SHOWS ANOTHER H5 VORT MAX ENTERING THE CWFA
FROM THE WEST ATOP LAPS CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AREAS
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. PERHAPS THERE IS ALREADY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF
THE MTNS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BNDRYS THAT ARE ENUF
TO KICK OFF NEW CONVECTION. OVERALL...IT SHUD BE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
HOWEVER...THEY HAVE BEEN TENDING TO BE SLOW-MOVING OR STATIONARY. SO
THERE IS A SMALL EXCESSIVE RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT THRU THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. I BASED THE UPDATED POP TRENDS ON THE 00Z HRRR...WHICH
KEEPS A FAIR AMT OF CONVECTION THRU ABOUT 06-07Z...MAINLY IN THE
UPSTATE AND SWRN NC PIEDMONT.
LATE TONIGHT...AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND IT. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE...BUT EVEN WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERING...SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
DESPITE A SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE DAY...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL...AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT...AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MASS IS WARMED MORE READILY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE WEAKLY CAPPED ON
TUESDAY...AND ONLY MINIMAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LLVL WINDS
OUT OF THE E TO NE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE QUITE WEAK AND NO SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION.
ABOUT THE ONLY FORCING WILL BE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE AND SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP...THOUGH THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW END OF THE SCATTERED RANGE. THE WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT NOTHING IN THE MODELS
INDICATES THAT CONVECTION WILL LIVE MUCH AFTER DARK AND I TAPER POPS
BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
BY THURSDAY THE NAM BECOMES QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW IN THE GULF. IT ALSO BRINGS A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
AND THE NAM HAS BEEN REJECTED FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
STILL...THE GFS HAS 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINNING TO APPROACH WITH THE
NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND NOT FROM THE GULF LIKE THE NAM DOES. THIS
SHOULD BRING GOOD COVERAGE TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY
RAIN. I HAVE 50 POPS FOR THE AFTN HOURS...THOUGH THAT WILL PROBABLY
GO UP IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES AS THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UNTIL
THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OR IT/S
EXACT TRACK. REGARDLESS OF THAT DEVELOPMENT...THERE WILL BE QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
WE SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL AND/OR EXTRATROPICAL WAVE.
STILL...WITH WEAK SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION I WOULDN/T EXPECT THAT
WE WILL SEE MUCH LLVL DRYING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALBEIT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD. BY MONDAY THE ERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO AMPLY
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BRING
GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO REGION ON DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AS ANTICIPATED...THE PAST SEVERAL SFC ANALYSIS REVEAL THAT
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
SINCE LATE EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP EAST OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GENERALLY...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINAL...EXPECTED TO ASHE OUT BY 9Z.
I WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT EAST CROSS WINDS AROUND
3 KTS. AFTER SUNRISE...SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS TO BACK
TO NE ACROSS THE TERMINAL...SPEEDS AROUND 6 KTS. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER MVFR DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS MAINLY THE RESULT OF LOW LCL BELOW A
BUILDING H6 INVERSION. THE MOS GUIDANCE AGREEMENT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUDS IS LOW. HOWEVER...BASED LLVL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM SOUNDING...I WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE POSSIBLE MVFR CLOUDS WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 17-20Z.
ELSEWHERE...VERY CHALLENGING CEILING FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAF
PACKAGE. MOST OF THE PIEDMONT TAF SITE REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF A
STATION FRONT. KHKY IS THE CLOSEST AND MAY SEE A VCSH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. RECENT OBS AT KGSP AND KGMU INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILING EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE VERY LATEST OBS OBSERVING SCT MVFR
CLOUDS. I WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SKY CONDITIONS CLOSELY...BUT WILL
KEEP MVFR SCT FOR NOW. AFTER SUNRISE...SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT
WINDS TO BACK TO NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SPEEDS AROUND 6 KTS. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER MVFR DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS MAINLY THE RESULT OF LOW
LCL BELOW A BUILDING H6 INVERSION. THE MOS GUIDANCE AGREEMENT ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUDS IS LOW. HOWEVER...BASED LLVL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM SOUNDING...I WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE POSSIBLE MVFR CLOUDS WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 17-20Z AT KGSP AND
KGMU. KAVL WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHC FOR MVFR CLOUDS AFTER
14Z...ELSEWHERE I WILL KEEP SKY VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND MVFR CATE
CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY IN A PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WED AND THU MORNINGS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
RETURN TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THU-SAT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 86% MED 79% MED 71% MED 70%
KAVL HIGH 80% MED 64% HIGH 82% MED 62%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 81% HIGH 80%
KGMU HIGH 85% HIGH 97% HIGH 84% HIGH 85%
KAND HIGH 89% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% MED 74%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING KCDS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY IMPACTING KCDS IS LOW...HOWEVER...
AND NOT INCLUDED IN THE LATEST TAF. VFR TO DOMINATE OTHERWISE WITH
MODEST LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET 45-50 KNOTS OVERHEAD KLBB EARLY THEN SHIFTING EAST. STILL
BELIEVE SURFACE FLOW MIXED ENOUGH TO MITIGATE WIND SHEAR SO DID
NOT INCLUDE LLWS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OF
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THE
LLWS REMARK...BUT WILL BE WATCHING OF COURSE. ALSO...WATCHING
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFT EASTWARD SO FAR THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...STILL NO
INDICATION THESE WILL TURN SOUTH WHILE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT. SINCE WE ARE WITHIN THE 9 HOUR WINDOW WE CHOSE TO
LEAVE TS MENTION OUT DUE TO UNCERTAIN CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WE ARE WATCHING IS IN EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THAT
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING A COLD POOL THAT SHOULD ALLOW PROGRESSION
PERHAPS CLOSE TO THE TEXAS LINE...THOUGH SOLUTIONS ALSO DIVERGE
REGARDING WHAT OCCURS NEXT THERE AS WELL. ANYWAY... WILL UPDATE AS
NEEDED. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGE/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW KS INTO NE NM. OTHER ISOLD STORMS FORMING IN HIGHER
TERRAIN VCNTY RUIDOSO NM. A FEW CU ALSO STARTING TO FORM ALONG AND
EAST OF CAPROCK WHERE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES.
PRIMARY SHORTWV ENERGY FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ALONG DIFFUSE
DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN PNHDL INTO WRN OK. THESE STORMS SHOULD TURN SE INTO
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS EVENING AND COULD BRUSH THE
FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA AFTER 7 PM. WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER AREA
OF ENHANCED LIFT ROTATING ACROSS WESTERN NM ATTM AND THIS FEATURE
COULD ALSO AID IN HIGH BASED STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS
TAPPING INTO REMAINING INSTABILITY ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE.
INITIATION FURTHER SOUTH ALONG SOUTHERN EXTENT OF DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH
LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF DEEP LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CONTINUES FROM TULIA SW TOWARD LEVELLAND. WITH A FEW
MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND POSSIBILITY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY
AND WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG CAPROCK HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS VCNTY
CHILDRESS. ALSO KEPT SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE AREA OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
PLAINVIEW AS NM ACTIVITY COULD SURVIVE TRACK EASTWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVERNIGHT MIXING LOW LEVELS AND
HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY HOT DAY
TUE AS DRYLINE MIXES INTO ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS BENEATH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TUE AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY
EXITING OUR PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID EVENING.
LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY EVENING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 50KT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL MOSTLY BE LIFTING DRY AIR.
THEREFORE...CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 00Z. THESE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL ALSO
KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL LOW LEVEL STRATUS NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE
PANHANDLE. THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY PASS OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK MAY BE OUR FINAL CHANCE TO MISS OUT ON RAIN
FOR THE SPRING SEASON. UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PLACE WEST TEXAS IN AN
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT REGION OF A 70KT JET. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO WEST TEXAS.
HOWEVER THIS DAY WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND MAKE A PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME. MEANINGFUL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE ABOVE THE
FRONTAL ZONE BY THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GET A PRONOUNCED BOOST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST VALUES OFF THE CAPROCK. THEREFORE WE WILL
FINALLY GET TO SEE DEEPER WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. PROGGED WCD VALUES AT
THE MOMENT ARE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0KM. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WINDS DO
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY BREEZY FOR A BONAFIDE HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...CONVECTION AND SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BACKING MOISTURE UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO.
CONVECTION MAY THEN FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENINGS. BUT BETTER COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. A
LARGE SUMMER TIME RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL APPEAR TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE DEVELOPING AN
OMEGA BLOCK. JDV
FIRE WEATHER...
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST TUE AFTN WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTN RH
VALUES WILL END UP IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WHILE SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 97 62 85 57 / 20 10 10 20 40
TULIA 68 99 63 86 58 / 20 10 10 20 40
PLAINVIEW 69 102 64 89 60 / 20 10 10 20 40
LEVELLAND 65 102 66 95 61 / 20 0 0 20 40
LUBBOCK 69 104 68 95 62 / 20 0 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 63 103 67 99 62 / 10 0 0 20 30
BROWNFIELD 65 104 68 99 62 / 20 0 0 20 30
CHILDRESS 68 102 69 92 64 / 20 20 20 20 50
SPUR 69 106 70 98 64 / 20 10 10 20 40
ASPERMONT 70 105 71 101 67 / 10 20 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AT 3 AM...A 1022 MB HIGH WAS WAS LOCATED OVER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED THE DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY CLIMB OVERNIGHT. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS COMPLEX WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 04.00Z MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
IOWA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE 300-310K ISENTROPIC
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THIS LIFT IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
QUITE A FEW RADAR ECHOS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. HOWEVER WITH THERE BEING QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 750 MB...THESE RADAR ECHOS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY WITH PRECIPITATING TO THE GROUND. SO FAR THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION REPORT THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WAS A SPRINKLE
AT PRESTON MINNESOTA. THINKING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MOISTEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING...AND THAT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...AND THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MODERATE 300-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH 0-3 KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 250 J/KG...THERE MAY BE EVEN A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL AROUND A
HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
ON WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE
300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAPIDLY
WEAKENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THUS EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TAKING
PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ONLY
MOISTURE LEFT WILL BE LOCATED BELOW 850 MB. WITH THERE NOT BEING MUCH
LIFT IN THIS LAYER WAS TEMPTED TO GO DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER WITH MANY OF THE MODELS STILL PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE REGION...DECIDED TO JUST KEEP THE 20 TO 40
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING.
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS THIS SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING...KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN
THE FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A
SURFACE RIDGE IN BOTH MODELS ACROSS THE REGION...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO KEEP WITH TIME PERIOD DRY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
RESULT...JUST WENT WITH THE ALL BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
BROAD AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
KEEP MID LEVEL DECK IN VICINITY WITH LIGHT RAIN MAKING IT THROUGH
DRY AIRMASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERS
THE DAKOTAS...RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EVENING HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS WELL...
SWEEPING THESE SHOWERS INTO AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN...
AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SATURATE UNDER STEADY LIFT...MORE AND MORE
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THUNDER TO
FORECAST BUT IF STRONGER CONVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT CAN HOLD TOGETHER...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WHILE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR
TO DEVELOP AS SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER LOW
GETS CLOSER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TODAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE. THE
RIVER CRESTED AROUND 9.96 FEET ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND IT HAS
BEEN STEADILY FALLING OVERNIGHT. WITH RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW FALL
AND GO BELOW ITS 9 FOOT FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....SHEA
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS WITH RAIN CHANCES AND
HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOMORROW WITH CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BROAD RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE ON UP THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA DOWN TO THE GULF COAST
WHILE A CLOSED MID LEVEL IS PROPAGATING TO THE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA. THE LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THIS LOW HAS
PUSHED THROUGH THE RIDGE WHICH HAS HELPED TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST NOSE OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THESE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ENCOUNTERING A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 800MB AND 500MB WHICH IS CAUSING THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EAST. AM NOT EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE REGION...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AS IT MOVES IN WITH THIS FEATURE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES. THE NEXT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING AND SHOULD
MARK THE MAIN BEGINNING TO THE RAIN SHOWERS. THE DEEP LIFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN OCCURRING
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITH THIS ALL DAY RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB LITTLE...IF AT ALL.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW AT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST AND IS
CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS. DESPITE THIS...THE LIFT IS FAIRLY
DEEP AND EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY...MEANING THAT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. THE MAIN MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DESPITE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
THE 03.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THEIR TIMING OF THIS NEXT
TROUGH THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER WITH FIRST BRINGING THE
SHOWERS IN ON SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE
MAIN TROUGH/SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THAT TIME
PERIOD. IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL DAY FOR SOME HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...IT IS ON SUNDAY WHEN THIS MAIN TROUGH COMES THROUGH WITH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 500-15000 J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY FOR ANY BIG WARM UPS IN THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BETWEEN 5C AND 12C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
BROAD AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
KEEP MID LEVEL DECK IN VICINITY WITH LIGHT RAIN MAKING IT THROUGH
DRY AIRMASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERS
THE DAKOTAS...RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EVENING HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS WELL...
SWEEPING THESE SHOWERS INTO AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN...
AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SATURATE UNDER STEADY LIFT...MORE AND MORE
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THUNDER TO
FORECAST BUT IF STRONGER CONVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT CAN HOLD TOGETHER...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WHILE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR
TO DEVELOP AS SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER LOW
GETS CLOSER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
654 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND SHORT TERM FORECAST EXPECTATIONS...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A RATHER POOR JOB IN
DEPICTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXPECT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN
KANSAS TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL EASTWARD TREK. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS...EVIDENCED BY THE ACTIVITY THAT
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR/SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE IN THE PAST HOUR. AT THE
SAME TIME...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS/VEERS AND UPPER SUBSIDENCE FILLS IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD SEE ALL ACTIVITY DECREASE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING...LIKELY OWING TO THE CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 10K FEET. HRRR STILL CONVECTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN DOING SO...BUT HAS A TENDENCY
TO OVER-CONVECT DURING PEAK HEATING WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE SETUP EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AT 3 AM...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LEAD
SHORT WAVE APPEARED TO HAVE AN AXIS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE SEEMED VAGUELY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND WIND PROFILES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE HAS
PROVIDED ENOUGH ASCENT IN AN ATMOSPHERE WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN STRONG
ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE OCCURRED...PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREAS OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH DRY LAYERS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
EAST AND PERSIST GIVEN THE ENHANCED ASCENT WITHIN AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD OR SEVERE ACTIVITY THOUGH.
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD TROUGH WITH AN
EXPECTATION OF A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF NORTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD SEE
RATHER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING.
HOWEVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE AND HEATING TODAY WHILE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SET UP NEAR THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...IN THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR PERHAPS
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A WARM CAPPING
LAYER AROUND 10K FEET IN ORDER TO INITIATE. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS
IN PLACE...IF STORMS DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHWEST OF A
CONCORDIA TO MANHATTAN TO EMPORIA LINE. THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE
FOCUSED ON HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WARRANTS MENTION OF A VERY SMALL TORNADO
POTENTIAL IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES FROM THE LCL TO 10K FEET. IT WOULD
THEN APPEAR THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD THE STORMS GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. ANY UPSCALE GROWTH IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH AND
WOULD SEEM TO BE FAVORED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN CONSISTENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ROTATE OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF
WEAK IMPULSES OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD GENERATE
ADEQUATE LIFT COINCIDENT WITH AN H85 FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ONLY CONSIDERATIONS TO RESOLVE
BEGIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE TROUGH AS THE 00Z NAM LAGS
BEHIND THE 00Z GFS. ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH SFC
FRONT REACHES BY PEAK HEATING TIME AND IF ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE FROM OVERTURNING. BEST CHANCES ATTM RESIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN
VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISM FROM THE FRONT.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS AREA MAY DEVELOP A
FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
PRECIP CHANCES END BY THURS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SEES DRY CONDITIONS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH COOL ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES COULD RESULT IN LOWS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SLIDING INTO THE LOW 50S. HIGHS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THE LOW 70S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. GULF
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW GENERATING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BUT OVERALL APPEARS TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HELPING TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY. LEFT MONDAY AFTERNOON DRY AT THIS TIME AS
DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST FOR ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS READING IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER/NEAR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DURING ANY SHRA OR TS. SHOULD BE DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THE SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS AND DEVELOPMENT COULD VARY BY AS MUCH AS FOUR HOURS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN
WI. CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE HAS
HELPED BRING CLEARING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH DISSIPATING HIGH
CLOUDS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVER THE CWA.
UPSTREAM...700-500 MB FGEN AND ASSOCIATED 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO CNTRL MN.
TODAY...THE GFS WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY THE AREA OF 300K-305K LIFT. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/NAM/GEM AND HIGH RES MODELS THAT KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN
INTO THE FAR SOUTH OR TO JUST ALONG THE WI BORDER WERE
PREFERRED...GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND
GENERALLY WEAK FORCING. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND. LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS MN
INTO FAR WRN WI. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER NRN WI AND SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE SW HALF OF UPPER
MI. SO...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEAR THE WI BORDER DURING THE
EVENING WITH RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
OVER THE COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE EAST. THICKENING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF AS
MUCH WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE
AFFECTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL
LOOKING LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR SEEING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BROAD 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION...850-500MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...AND 290-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
FOLLOW THAT IDEA...BUT STILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS /LIKELY VALUES/
ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
ROBUST WITH QPF ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING THE SHORTWAVE
AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA...SO POPS/QPF MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED UP FURTHER. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE THE WEST/CENTRAL SEEING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON THURSDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST
THE RAIN WILL REACH. WHEN DEALING WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS RUNNING
INTO THE EXISTING DRY AIR FROM AN EXITING HIGH...THE MODELS TEND TO
OVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE VARIABILITY
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL MENTION CHANCE/SLIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE DIVING SOUTH AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA FROM THE JAMES BAY HIGH...EXPECT DIMINISHING POPS/CLOUDS
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE
SOME MID CLOUDS LINGERING WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTS. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH OVER
NORTHWEST QUEBEC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRY TO WARM
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR /FORECAST HIGHS 60S TO
LOWER 70S/...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER
THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE /AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS
WAVE WILL AMPLIFY A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
DESPITE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TO THE SW...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WNDS WITH HIGH PRES NEAR UPPER MI DOMINATING
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN AT IWD WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT CMX/SAW WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO REAL STRONG PRESSURE
SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE AREA. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...WAVES WILL NOT BE
TOO HIGH EITHER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ002>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TRYING TO REFINE
THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...AT LEAST SLIGHT
POPS ARE BEING ADVERTISED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA AT ANY GIVEN
TIME. ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
PROBABILITY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SECONDARY TO PRECIP...SKY COVER AND ITS
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL.
AT 0930Z...OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AF FEW FAIRLY
SUBTLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY-
BETTER DEFINED 1002 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CO/KS/OK
BORDER AREA. OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A 1025MB HIGH SAT OVER MT.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCREDIBLY WELL-DEFINED...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH CONNECTED THE LOW
PRESSURE AREAS AND EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS SEPARATED A PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZE TO
ITS NORTH/WEST FROM A PREDOMINANT EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE STILL
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICTED THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-
DEFINED CLOSED 500MB LOW SPINNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY
KICKING ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS WAVE IS WORKING
IN CONCERT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 35+ KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET
AND ITS ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT STORMS BEING A DUD IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALSO A
FEW CORES HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY PULSED UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY
SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL-WISE...RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE CWA
HAS STRUGGLED TO MEASURE ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER EXCEPTIONS EXIST...INCLUDING A LIKELY
CORRIDOR OF 1+ INCH THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN DAWSON COUNTY. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.
EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
GENERALLY EXPECTED THEME OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT OF
THE CWA FROM WEST-EAST IS OCCURRING...WITH MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 ALREADY PRECIP-FREE AT THIS HOUR. THIS HAS TURNED OUT
TO BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...DISORGANIZED NOCTURNAL SUB-SEVERE
MULTICELL EVENT...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE EVEN PENNY-NICKEL
SIZE HAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO ELEVATED CAPE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER AVERAGING UNDER 500 J/KG PER LATEST RAP AND
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC QPF FIELDS AND HIGHER-RES
REFLECTITY PROGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND FOCUSES MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRIED TO SHOW DIMINISHING POPS
WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WAS NOT ABOUT TO PULL COMPLETELY EXCEPT
IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA FROM
WEST-EAST...INCLUDING UP A THE 850MB LEVEL...AND THIS COULD
CERTAINLY SPARK THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SPOTTY CONVECTION...EVEN IF THERE IS A LULL FOR AWHILE...AND THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE 08Z HRRR. AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...STEADY NORTH BREEZES AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY INVADE FROM WEST-EAST...PROGRESSIVELY SHUNTING THE
FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY AXIS EAST WITH IT. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...BOTH THE NAM/RAP FOCUS THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 0-1KM MLCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG JUST BARELY
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA...BUT POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR EDGES...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LOWER INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY AFFECT OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND ALTHOUGH NOT
SEEMING LIKELY...IT JUST CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
EAST/SOUTH OF A FULLERTON-RED CLOUD-STOCKTON LINE GIVEN DECENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT...AND THUS WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY
SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT GENERALLY
LINES UP WITH THE SPC DAY 1 5 PERCENT SEVERE CONTOUR. AGAIN
THOUGH... AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA STANDS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STAYING STORM-FREE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD AND TEMP-WISE
TODAY...THE BIG WILD CARD SEEMS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS MIGHT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS
LIKELY AT LEAST DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STRATUS...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR STILL INSIST THAT
AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS COULD STILL DEVELOP AND
LINGER ACROSS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
AREAS...AM STARTING TO QUESTION THIS A BIT. AT LEAST FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL ASSUME THIS MIGHT STILL HAPPEN...AND THUS HAVE
RATHER HIGH SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TODAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN BANKING ON EXTENSIVE CLOUDS KEEPING HIGHS LOW-
MID 70S IN NEB ZONES AND MAINLY UPPER 70S IN KS. HOWEVER...IF ITS
ENDS UP SUNNIER THAN EXPECTED THEN SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WILL BE
NEEDED.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/TONIGHT PERIOD 00Z-12Z/7PM-7AM...CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP DETAILS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...BUT HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
NO MORE THAN 40-50 PERCENT...AND EVEN THESE VALUES HOLD OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...THE CWA WILL
COME UNDER INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
TO THE NORTH...THE CLOSED 500MB DAKOTAS LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO
FAR WESTERN MN BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WHILE AS IT DOES SO ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CWA GETS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER
JET...WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE A CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS TO TAKE AIM ON PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF
THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY
NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 5-10 MPH. BACKING UP AND FOCUSING ON
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
DRY...AND HAVE MAINLY FOCUSED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS KS ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING/PERSISTING
NEAR THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS MAY
BE A STRETCH...AND EVEN IF IT WOULD OCCUR AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
SEVERE STORM THREAT AFTER 7PM. THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT...HAVE
GRADUALLY BROUGHT BACK UP 20-50 POPS INTO NEB ZONES...ONLY
EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF
REALIZING THIS LATE-NIGHT RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...WITH THIS AREA MOST FAVORED TO REALIZE CONVECTION
MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND/OR PRECIP DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD WITHIN THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION. CERTAINLY NOT
SEEING THIS AS A WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS
THOUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...AT LEAST
SOUTHERN ZONES COULD STILL SEE ELEVATED CAPE OF 500+ J/KG...AND
THUS WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THIS LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT.
TEMP-WISE...CHANGED PREVIOUS LOWS VERY LITTLE...RANGING FROM NEAR
50 FAR NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WE BEGIN MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE AS THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...MORE LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE TO BE. MUCAPES LOOK VERY LOW TO NON-EXISTENT...WHICH LED ME
TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING LACK OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.
THE JET STREAK SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD GIVE US A DRY PERIOD
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD MAKE ITS WAY
EAST AND BE MAINTAINED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
THE AXIS POTENTIALLY OVER OUR CWA. THE JET SHOULD BE ON THE MODEST
SIDE...AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE WITHIN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTRODUCED
FROM A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AS WELL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE HELP FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET COULD INTENSIFY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT BY THIS TIME...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD WIND UP STALLING...AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION TOWARD NEXT WORK WEEK. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO MONDAY OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL IN
TURN...KEEP US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY
PASSING WAVES/PERTURBATIONS TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
OVERALL...A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES...IS ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST
TO THE WEST...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE WITH REGARD TO CEILING
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
LARGELY PUSHED EAST OF KGRI...AND ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY...THE PROBABILITY SEEMS LOW ENOUGH
TO OMIT AT THIS TIME. CEILING-WISE...EARLIER SUGGESTIONS OF
POTENTIAL IFR HAS NOT MATERIALIZED...AND AM EVEN STARTING TO
QUESTION IF MUCH MVFR WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SAGGING
THROUGH THE AREA. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL FORECASTS...HAVE MAINTAINED AN MVFR CEILING FROM 15Z-19Z AS
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THIS COULD STILL MATERIALIZE...BUT THIS IS BY
NO MEANS A SLAM DUNK. BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...HAVE FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING. LATE TONIGHT...HAVE INDICATED A
VICINITY SHOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF KGRI. BREEZES WILL SOON TRANSITION TO
NORTHERLY TODAY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH THIS GENERAL
DIRECTION EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY AVERAGING AT OR BELOW 12KT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TRYING TO REFINE
THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...AT LEAST SLIGHT
POPS ARE BEING ADVERTISED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA AT ANY GIVEN
TIME. ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
PROBABILITY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SECONDARY TO PRECIP...SKY COVER AND ITS
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL.
AT 0930Z...OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AF FEW FAIRLY
SUBTLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY-
BETTER DEFINED 1002 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CO/KS/OK
BORDER AREA. OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A 1025MB HIGH SAT OVER MT.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCREDIBLY WELL-DEFINED...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH CONNECTED THE LOW
PRESSURE AREAS AND EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS SEPARATED A PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZE TO
ITS NORTH/WEST FROM A PREDOMINANT EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE STILL
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICTED THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-
DEFINED CLOSED 500MB LOW SPINNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY
KICKING ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS WAVE IS WORKING
IN CONCERT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 35+ KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET
AND ITS ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT STORMS BEING A DUD IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALSO A
FEW CORES HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY PULSED UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY
SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL-WISE...RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE CWA
HAS STRUGGLED TO MEASURE ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER EXCEPTIONS EXIST...INCLUDING A LIKELY
CORRIDOR OF 1+ INCH THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN DAWSON COUNTY. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.
EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
GENERALLY EXPECTED THEME OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT OF
THE CWA FROM WEST-EAST IS OCCURRING...WITH MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 ALREADY PRECIP-FREE AT THIS HOUR. THIS HAS TURNED OUT
TO BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...DISORGANIZED NOCTURNAL SUB-SEVERE
MULTICELL EVENT...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE EVEN PENNY-NICKEL
SIZE HAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO ELEVATED CAPE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER AVERAGING UNDER 500 J/KG PER LATEST RAP AND
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC QPF FIELDS AND HIGHER-RES
REFLECTITY PROGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND FOCUSES MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRIED TO SHOW DIMINISHING POPS
WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WAS NOT ABOUT TO PULL COMPLETELY EXCEPT
IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA FROM
WEST-EAST...INCLUDING UP A THE 850MB LEVEL...AND THIS COULD
CERTAINLY SPARK THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SPOTTY CONVECTION...EVEN IF THERE IS A LULL FOR AWHILE...AND THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE 08Z HRRR. AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...STEADY NORTH BREEZES AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY INVADE FROM WEST-EAST...PROGRESSIVELY SHUNTING THE
FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY AXIS EAST WITH IT. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...BOTH THE NAM/RAP FOCUS THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 0-1KM MLCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG JUST BARELY
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA...BUT POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR EDGES...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LOWER INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY AFFECT OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND ALTHOUGH NOT
SEEMING LIKELY...IT JUST CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
EAST/SOUTH OF A FULLERTON-RED CLOUD-STOCKTON LINE GIVEN DECENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT...AND THUS WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY
SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT GENERALLY
LINES UP WITH THE SPC DAY 1 5 PERCENT SEVERE CONTOUR. AGAIN
THOUGH... AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA STANDS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STAYING STORM-FREE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD AND TEMP-WISE
TODAY...THE BIG WILD CARD SEEMS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS MIGHT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS
LIKELY AT LEAST DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STRATUS...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR STILL INSIST THAT
AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS COULD STILL DEVELOP AND
LINGER ACROSS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
AREAS...AM STARTING TO QUESTION THIS A BIT. AT LEAST FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL ASSUME THIS MIGHT STILL HAPPEN...AND THUS HAVE
RATHER HIGH SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TODAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN BANKING ON EXTENSIVE CLOUDS KEEPING HIGHS LOW-
MID 70S IN NEB ZONES AND MAINLY UPPER 70S IN KS. HOWEVER...IF ITS
ENDS UP SUNNIER THAN EXPECTED THEN SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WILL BE
NEEDED.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/TONIGHT PERIOD 00Z-12Z/7PM-7AM...CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP DETAILS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...BUT HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
NO MORE THAN 40-50 PERCENT...AND EVEN THESE VALUES HOLD OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...THE CWA WILL
COME UNDER INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
TO THE NORTH...THE CLOSED 500MB DAKOTAS LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO
FAR WESTERN MN BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WHILE AS IT DOES SO ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CWA GETS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER
JET...WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE A CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS TO TAKE AIM ON PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF
THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY
NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 5-10 MPH. BACKING UP AND FOCUSING ON
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
DRY...AND HAVE MAINLY FOCUSED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS KS ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING/PERSISTING
NEAR THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS MAY
BE A STRETCH...AND EVEN IF IT WOULD OCCUR AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
SEVERE STORM THREAT AFTER 7PM. THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT...HAVE
GRADUALLY BROUGHT BACK UP 20-50 POPS INTO NEB ZONES...ONLY
EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF
REALIZING THIS LATE-NIGHT RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...WITH THIS AREA MOST FAVORED TO REALIZE CONVECTION
MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND/OR PRECIP DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD WITHIN THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION. CERTAINLY NOT
SEEING THIS AS A WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS
THOUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...AT LEAST
SOUTHERN ZONES COULD STILL SEE ELEVATED CAPE OF 500+ J/KG...AND
THUS WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THIS LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT.
TEMP-WISE...CHANGED PREVIOUS LOWS VERY LITTLE...RANGING FROM NEAR
50 FAR NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WE BEGIN MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE AS THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...MORE LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE TO BE. MUCAPES LOOK VERY LOW TO NON-EXISTENT...WHICH LED ME
TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING LACK OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.
THE JET STREAK SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD GIVE US A DRY PERIOD
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD MAKE ITS WAY
EAST AND BE MAINTAINED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
THE AXIS POTENTIALLY OVER OUR CWA. THE JET SHOULD BE ON THE MODEST
SIDE...AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE WITHIN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTRODUCED
FROM A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AS WELL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE HELP FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET COULD INTENSIFY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT BY THIS TIME...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD WIND UP STALLING...AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION TOWARD NEXT WORK WEEK. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO MONDAY OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL IN
TURN...KEEP US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY
PASSING WAVES/PERTURBATIONS TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
OVERALL...A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES...IS ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST
TO THE WEST...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME THEME INTACT FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE...WITH
REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A 5-10 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY AS A
BATCH OF LOW STRATUS MATERIALIZES BEHIND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET
AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF LOW CEILINGS IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...AS
THIS COULD BE HIGHLY MODULATED/DELAYED BY EFFECTS OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEAKING OF THIS CONVECTION...HAVE TARGETED
THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME WITH A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM
MENTION...WHICH MIGHT BE CONVERTED TO A TEMPO/PREVAILING GROUP IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT KGRI.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY SMALL HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. WHILE ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A ROGUE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR EVEN LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT KGRI
ANYTIME AFTER 12Z TODAY...THE PROBABILITY SEEMS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT
FOR NOW...AND BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
IN PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AND A LIKELY RETURN TO VFR CEILING.
BREEZES WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHEASTERLY RIGHT AWAY EARLY THIS
MORNING...TO NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...AND WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
AROUND 12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNLESS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR REDUCES
VISIBILITY...NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BELOW VFR DUE
TO FOG...GIVEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT BREEZES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1032 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
TWO MAIN CONCERNS TODAY. NUMBER ONE...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
NUMBER TWO...SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
15 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS CENTER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST ND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR BISMARCK WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JAMESTOWN TO WHEATON MN TO LITCHFIELD MN. LATEST RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS
MOVE THE SURFACE LOW AT A SNAIL/S PACE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...NEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLY BY 06 UTC TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF RAIN FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. WITHIN THIS BROADER
AREA...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 4
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS AND WET SOILS...WILL ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FROM 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO FARGO TO FERGUS
FALLS...CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THIS AREA...SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 0 TO 1 KM CAPE UP TO 1200 J/KG AND VGP VALUES NEAR 0.2. WILL
NEED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO REALIZE FULL INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL...BUT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. PRIME TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 TO 6 PM AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
CAREFULLY.
UPDATED POPS/WX/SKY/TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE THINKING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
500 MB UPPER LOW APPROACHING BISMARCK ATTM WITH AREA OF RAIN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF UPPER LOW RUGBY BACK THROUGH MINOT AND WILLISTON.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AREA OF SHOWERS MORE ASSOC WITH 850
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO MINNESOTA. DRY SLOT WORKING INTO
SOUTHEAST-ECNTRL ND ATTM AND LOOKING AT LATEST HRRR WOULD THINK A
DRY PD IN PLACE INTO EARLY AFTN IN REGION FROM COOPERSTOWN TO
HILLSBORO SOUTHWARD TO SD BORDER. OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY IN THIS REGION IS TOO LOW TO DO SO BUT WILL
DOWNPLAY TO 20S. THEN STILL LOOKING INTERESTING MID TO LATE AFTN
WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND PSBL TORNADO THREAT IN NARROW ZONE
JUST EAST OF UPPER LOW AND JUST NORTH AND EAST OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO RUN NR A JAMESTOWN TO WAHPETON LINE.
HIGHEST VGP (0.24) OVER CASS COUNTY ND. COORD WITH ABR/BIS AND
HIGHLIGHTED THREAT IN WX STORY AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST AND BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK
AT 00Z. SFC LOW CIRCULATION WITH UPPER LOW TO BE JUST EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT 21Z. THRU MOST OF THE DAY....DO EXPECT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF UPR LOW AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS
THIS REGION OF OUR FCST AREA (MAINLY IN ZONE FROM ADA-HILLSBORO-
GRAND FORKS BACK THRU DEVILS LAKE).
OF BIG INTEREST IS DRY SLOT JUST EAST OF UPR LOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING LIKELY TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SE ND TODAY. ENOUGH SFC
HEATING INTO THE MID 60S SEEMS PSBL JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY-LISBON
AREA SOUTHWARD WITH SOME MID 50 DEW PTS. 06Z HRRR 3 KM MODEL
INDICATES WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY FROM NR JAMESTOWN TO LISBON TO
WAHPETON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO SOUTH DAKTOA AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF BOUNDARY. NAM12 ALSO SHOWS SOME HEALTHY VGP VALUES
(MORE THAN 0.2) ON NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY FROM RICHLAND COUNTY ND
TO GRIGGS CO ND. PER SWODY1 SOME THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES IN THIS NARROW ZONE AS HAPPENED IN SW ND MON AFTN.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ESE INTO CNTRL MN BY 12Z WED WITH FOCUS OF
RAIN DVL-GFK-PKD REGION...WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL STILL OF OVER AN
INCH SEEMS LIKELY LOCALLY 2 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT ENOUGH
FOR A FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AS RAINFALL RATES DONT
APPEAR TOO GREAT AND AREA UNDER THE GUN NOT QUITE AS WET AS
FARTHER NORTH.
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT WEDNESDAY SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVING DRY
CONDITIONS.
VARIOUS MODELS SEEM IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS FOR THE FRI-MON PERIOD. GEM/ECMWF/GFS/DGEX ALL SHOW A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGING.
ECMWF PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON SW OVER MANITOBA WITH -SHRA OVER
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AT 18Z FRIDAY. SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE
AND HAVE CUT POPS.
FOR SATURDAY RETURN MOISTURE AND A MORE ROBUST WAVE IN W/NW FLOW
SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS WEST TO EAST. WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN TO
THE EAST I LIKE THE IDEA OF A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
INCREASING POPS. CYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND SOME
CAPE ARGUE FOR TSRA.
FOR SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS JUNE THINK THE SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST. GFS/ECMWF SHOW COOLING ALOFT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AT LEAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE WITH THE FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LIKELY ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ERN ND/NW MN MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AREA OF MVFR
CIGS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF UPR LOW LIKELY TO MOVE INTO DVL REGION
LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY TODAY THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS AT KDVL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AFTER A BRIEF STUTTER MONDAY...THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON
CONTINUES A STEADY RECESSION AND IS APPROACHING FS. THE CURRENT
TRENDS LINE UP NICELY WITH THE FORECAST THAT CALLS FOR THE RIVER
TO GO BLO FS BY MID DAY TODAY.
THE TWO RIVER RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS SHOWN A TINY BUMP OVERNIGHT WITH
RASH IN THE AREA...BUT THE CURRENT TREND IS BELOW THE FORECAST. THE
TWO RIVERS AT HALLOCK IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FS LATER TODAY AS
WELL.
OTHERWISE OSLO JUST ABOVE FIS AND SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW FIS LATE
TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. DRAYTON AND PEMBINA BOTH RISING SLOWLY ALONG THE
FORECAST CURVES AND SHOULD STAY BETWEEN FIS AND FS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BARRING AN UNFORESEEN EXCESSIVE RAIN...LOCAL CONTRIBUTION FROM
RAIN TONIGHT WILL CAUSE ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACES.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. AS RIVER LEVELS FALL
DRAINAGE SHOULD INCREASE ALLOWING THE WATERS TO GET OFF THE LAND.
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE THROUGH GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS. ISOLATED
1.0 TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE RAINS MAY CAUSE
MINOR RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS...AND SLOW THE RECESSION ON
RIVERS THAT ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026>030-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
500 MB UPPER LOW APPROACHING BISMARCK ATTM WITH AREA OF RAIN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF UPPER LOW RUGBY BACK THROUGH MINOT AND WILLISTON.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AREA OF SHOWERS MORE ASSOC WITH 850
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO MINNESOTA. DRY SLOT WORKING INTO
SOUTHEAST-ECNTRL ND ATTM AND LOOKING AT LATEST HRRR WOULD THINK A
DRY PD IN PLACE INTO EARLY AFTN IN REGION FROM COOPERSTOWN TO
HILLSBORO SOUTHWARD TO SD BORDER. OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY IN THIS REGION IS TOO LOW TO DO SO BUT WILL
DOWNPLAY TO 20S. THEN STILL LOOKING INTERESTING MID TO LATE AFTN
WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND PSBL TORNADO THREAT IN NARROW ZONE
JUST EAST OF UPPER LOW AND JUST NORTH AND EAST OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO RUN NR A JAMESTOWN TO WAHPETON LINE.
HIGHEST VGP (0.24) OVER CASS COUNTY ND. COORD WITH ABR/BIS AND
HIGHLIGHTED THREAT IN WX STORY AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST AND BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK
AT 00Z. SFC LOW CIRCULATION WITH UPPER LOW TO BE JUST EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT 21Z. THRU MOST OF THE DAY....DO EXPECT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF UPR LOW AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS
THIS REGION OF OUR FCST AREA (MAINLY IN ZONE FROM ADA-HILLSBORO-
GRAND FORKS BACK THRU DEVILS LAKE).
OF BIG INTEREST IS DRY SLOT JUST EAST OF UPR LOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING LIKELY TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SE ND TODAY. ENOUGH SFC
HEATING INTO THE MID 60S SEEMS PSBL JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY-LISBON
AREA SOUTHWARD WITH SOME MID 50 DEW PTS. 06Z HRRR 3 KM MODEL
INDICATES WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY FROM NR JAMESTOWN TO LISBON TO
WAHPETON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO SOUTH DAKTOA AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF BOUNDARY. NAM12 ALSO SHOWS SOME HEALTHY VGP VALUES
(MORE THAN 0.2) ON NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY FROM RICHLAND COUNTY ND
TO GRIGGS CO ND. PER SWODY1 SOME THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES IN THIS NARROW ZONE AS HAPPENED IN SW ND MON AFTN.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ESE INTO CNTRL MN BY 12Z WED WITH FOCUS OF
RAIN DVL-GFK-PKD REGION...WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL STILL OF OVER AN
INCH SEEMS LIKELY LOCALLY 2 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT ENOUGH
FOR A FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AS RAINFALL RATES DONT
APPEAR TOO GREAT AND AREA UNDER THE GUN NOT QUITE AS WET AS
FARTHER NORTH.
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT WEDNESDAY SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVING DRY
CONDITIONS.
VARIOUS MODELS SEEM IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS FOR THE FRI-MON PERIOD. GEM/ECMWF/GFS/DGEX ALL SHOW A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGING.
ECMWF PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON SW OVER MANITOBA WITH -SHRA OVER
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AT 18Z FRIDAY. SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE
AND HAVE CUT POPS.
FOR SATURDAY RETURN MOISTURE AND A MORE ROBUST WAVE IN W/NW FLOW
SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS WEST TO EAST. WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN TO
THE EAST I LIKE THE IDEA OF A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
INCREASING POPS. CYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND SOME
CAPE ARGUE FOR TSRA.
FOR SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS JUNE THINK THE SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST. GFS/ECMWF SHOW COOLING ALOFT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AT LEAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE WITH THE FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LIKELY ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ERN ND/NW MN MOST OF THE DAY...BUT AREA OF MVFR
CIGS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF UPR LOW LIKELY TO MOVE INTO DVL REGION
LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY TODAY THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS AT KDVL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AFTER A BRIEF STUTTER MONDAY...THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON
CONTINUES A STEADY RECESSION AND IS APPROACHING FS. THE CURRENT
TRENDS LINE UP NICELY WITH THE FORECAST THAT CALLS FOR THE RIVER
TO GO BLO FS BY MID DAY TODAY.
THE TWO RIVER RIVER AT HALLOCK HAS SHOWN A TINY BUMP OVERNIGHT WITH
RASH IN THE AREA...BUT THE CURRENT TREND IS BELOW THE FORECAST. THE
TWO RIVERS AT HALLOCK IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FS LATER TODAY AS
WELL.
OTHERWISE OSLO JUST ABOVE FIS AND SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW FIS LATE
TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. DRAYTON AND PEMBINA BOTH RISING SLOWLY ALONG THE
FORECAST CURVES AND SHOULD STAY BETWEEN FIS AND FS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BARRING AN UNFORESEEN EXCESSIVE RAIN...LOCAL CONTRIBUTION FROM
RAIN TONIGHT WILL CAUSE ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACES.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. AS RIVER LEVELS FALL
DRAINAGE SHOULD INCREASE ALLOWING THE WATERS TO GET OFF THE LAND.
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE THROUGH GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS. ISOLATED
1.0 TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE RAINS MAY CAUSE
MINOR RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS...AND SLOW THE RECESSION ON
RIVERS THAT ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
516 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...THIS MORNING
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR DURING THE PAST HOUR. WE EVEN HAD A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE OFFICE. IT APPEARS FROM THE VAD WIND PROFILERS
THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME 700 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE IS 250 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 650 MB AND ELEVATED LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM.
THIS IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NMMM SHOWED A SIMILAR FEATURE 04.15Z...AND IT
KEPT THE AREA STATIONARY AND THEN MOVED IT SLOWLY NORTH. THUS
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AT 3 AM...A 1022 MB HIGH WAS WAS LOCATED OVER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED THE DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY CLIMB OVERNIGHT. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS COMPLEX WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 04.00Z MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
IOWA THIS MORNING...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE 300-310K ISENTROPIC
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THIS LIFT IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
QUITE A FEW RADAR ECHOS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. HOWEVER WITH THERE BEING QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 750 MB...THESE RADAR ECHOS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY WITH PRECIPITATING TO THE GROUND. SO FAR THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION REPORT THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WAS A SPRINKLE
AT PRESTON MINNESOTA. THINKING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MOISTEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING...AND THAT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...AND THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MODERATE 300-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH 0-3 KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMBING UP TO 250 J/KG...THERE MAY BE EVEN A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL AROUND A
HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
ON WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...THE
300 TO 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAPIDLY
WEAKENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THUS EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TAKING
PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ONLY
MOISTURE LEFT WILL BE LOCATED BELOW 850 MB. WITH THERE NOT BEING MUCH
LIFT IN THIS LAYER WAS TEMPTED TO GO DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER WITH MANY OF THE MODELS STILL PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE REGION...DECIDED TO JUST KEEP THE 20 TO 40
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING.
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS THIS SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING...KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN
THE FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A
SURFACE RIDGE IN BOTH MODELS ACROSS THE REGION...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO KEEP WITH TIME PERIOD DRY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
RESULT...JUST WENT WITH THE ALL BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
BROAD AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
KEEP MID LEVEL DECK IN VICINITY WITH LIGHT RAIN MAKING IT THROUGH
DRY AIRMASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERS
THE DAKOTAS...RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EVENING HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS WELL...
SWEEPING THESE SHOWERS INTO AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN...
AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SATURATE UNDER STEADY LIFT...MORE AND MORE
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THUNDER TO
FORECAST BUT IF STRONGER CONVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT CAN HOLD TOGETHER...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WHILE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR
TO DEVELOP AS SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER LOW
GETS CLOSER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TODAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE. THE
RIVER CRESTED AROUND 9.96 FEET ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND IT HAS
BEEN STEADILY FALLING OVERNIGHT. WITH RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW FALL
AND GO BELOW ITS 9 FOOT FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....SHEA
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
601 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY IN A COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS OUR SOURCE REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY
3 DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST
WEEK AND THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS QUITE LIMITED.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LATEST ILX SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME EXPANDING EAST AS THEY FIGHT THE DRY AIR.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS...ALONG WITH THE SHORT RANGE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DRY AIR BY KEEPING THE
SHOWERS AT BAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-55.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. DUE TO THE
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY MODERATE LIFT
WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCH.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEFORE THE LOWER
LEVELS MOISTEN UP...SO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL
FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO CREATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...SO WILL STICK WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 70-75
RANGE FOR HIGHS.
A BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE AT ODDS LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH DEEPER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS
WHICH RESULTS IN A QUICKER RETURN FLOW...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
EARLIER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE
A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW SATURDAY...AND DONT START TO STRENGTHEN THE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PREFER
THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS RAIN OUT UNTIL SAT NIGHT IN WEST
CENTRAL IL AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY.
THE GFS...HOWEVER TRIES TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BY RAISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MUCH QUICKER ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LIFTING A WARM FRONT TOWARD IL.
THIS LOOKS A BIT TOO QUICK FOR NOW...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD (00Z/6TH).
BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MARCH SLOWLY EAST WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
FROM AROUND 5000 FEET THRU 9000 FEET...SUGGESTING THE WEAKENING
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RAIN TO OUR WEST. MAY SEE SOME SCT-
BKN CIGS BTWN 4000-5000 FEET AFTR 09Z TONIGHT...ESP ACRS THE
WEST...BUT OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES...NO SIG PRECIP IS
EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THAT WILL BE THE STORY AS WELL
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN CIGS WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
A FACTOR THRU THE PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST DIRECTION EXPECTED
AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
312 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY IN A COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS OUR SOURCE REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY
3 DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST
WEEK AND THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS QUITE LIMITED.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LATEST ILX SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME EXPANDING EAST AS THEY FIGHT THE DRY AIR.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS...ALONG WITH THE SHORT RANGE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DRY AIR BY KEEPING THE
SHOWERS AT BAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-55.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. DUE TO THE
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY MODERATE LIFT
WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCH.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEFORE THE LOWER
LEVELS MOISTEN UP...SO THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL
FRIDAY...SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO CREATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...SO WILL STICK WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 70-75
RANGE FOR HIGHS.
A BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE AT ODDS LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH DEEPER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS
WHICH RESULTS IN A QUICKER RETURN FLOW...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
EARLIER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE
A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW SATURDAY...AND DONT START TO STRENGTHEN THE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PREFER
THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS RAIN OUT UNTIL SAT NIGHT IN WEST
CENTRAL IL AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY.
THE GFS...HOWEVER TRIES TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BY RAISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MUCH QUICKER ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LIFTING A WARM FRONT TOWARD IL.
THIS LOOKS A BIT TOO QUICK FOR NOW...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
MILLER
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINAL
AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM WED. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3.5-5K FT TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRIEFLY SEE BROKEN CEILINGS AT SPI AND DEC WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS
MORE WIDESPREAD. ALSO HAVE BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS OF 20-25K FT
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY. 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MICHIGAN TO DRIFT NE AND CONNECT WITH 1028 MB CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY BY 18Z/1 PM WED BUT STILL RIDGING SW INTO
CENTRAL IL. THIS KEEPS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM 850-700 MB IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL IL THROUGH MIDDAY WED. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY NEXT 24 HOURS. JUST HAVE VCSH AT PIA AFTER 15Z/10 AM WED
WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STAYING NW
OF PIA TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. NAM MODEL HAS VSBYS OF 4-5 MILES
AT DEC AND CMI FROM 12-15Z WED BUT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING.
HAVE MID LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVING TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND LOWER
TO 5-10K FT DURING WED MORNING. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOME EAST NEAR 5 KTS THIS EVENING AND SE 5-8 KTS WED
MORNING.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
218 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN A SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DO EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
WEST...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AS THEY MOVE INTO A DRIER
AIRMASS. WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY.
GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR COOL START THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM APPEARS TO
OVERDO A SURFACE LOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...DUE TO POOR HANDLING OF
CONVECTION. WILL GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE THE CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...AND SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING DURING MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS HAVE BACKED OFF POPS...AND ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EXTREME WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...SO WENT A LITTLE BELOW
THE MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.
WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH...WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS STILL TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...WENT CHANCE POPS.
MOS NUMBERS LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WENT COOLER
THAN MAV MOS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH THE RAIN AROUND. A MODEL
BLEND LOOKS OK FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE
TRAILING UPPER WAVE DEPART TO THE EAST. SUSPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SHIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS NOT
INDICATING A LOT OF DRY AIR PRESENT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
ONLY LIGHT NORTHEAST THEN VARIABLE FLOW. STRONG UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SPIN UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
OP GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HINT AT AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT
WEEK FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON. FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TONIGHT. CU FIELD HAS FORMED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.
CURRENT RAP KEEPS THE THERMAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKENS IT
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FEW CU AT
KBMG...OTHERWISE EXPECT NO IMPACTS AT TERMINALS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY...POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CU IS GREATER ON WEDNESDAY
AS RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. E/SE WINDS EXPECTED THOROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN A SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DO EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
WEST...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AS THEY MOVE INTO A DRIER
AIRMASS. WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY.
GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR COOL START THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM APPEARS TO
OVERDO A SURFACE LOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...DUE TO POOR HANDLING OF
CONVECTION. WILL GO WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE THE CLOUDS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...AND SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING DURING MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS HAVE BACKED OFF POPS...AND ONLY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EXTREME WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...SO WENT A LITTLE BELOW
THE MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.
WENT HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH...WENT LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS STILL TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...WENT CHANCE POPS.
MOS NUMBERS LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WENT COOLER
THAN MAV MOS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH THE RAIN AROUND. A MODEL
BLEND LOOKS OK FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE COULD BE
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRUGS THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND LOOK
GOOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND CONSIDERING 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER PROGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON. FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TONIGHT. CU FIELD HAS FORMED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.
CURRENT RAP KEEPS THE THERMAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKENS IT
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FEW CU AT
KBMG...OTHERWISE EXPECT NO IMPACTS AT TERMINALS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY...POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CU IS GREATER ON WEDNESDAY
AS RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. E/SE WINDS EXPECTED THOROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER DAKOTAS
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NW KS. COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...WITH STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH
MLCAPE INCREASE ALONG FRONT RANGE AND UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE ALONG
PALMER ASSOCIATED WITH NE FLOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF OUR CWA LATER. CAPE/SHEER
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS PRIMARY
CONCERN.
ULTIMATELY WE MAY NOT ACTUALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 03Z WHEN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AND DEEP MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
CWA...HOWEVER H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WED. NAM IS
SHOWING SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA/PV HEIGHT ANOMALIES TRACKING OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WED WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP DEPENDING ON THEIR
LOCATIONS. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING STILL SEEMS TO BE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF CWA...AND WHILE PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY I AM UNSURE ABOUT
AMOUNTS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z SO I ONLY LEFT
ISO THUNDER MENTION AFTER THAT POINT. LOCATION OF EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AND LOCATION OF ENHANCE AREA OF RAIN BANDS/SHOWER CLUSTERS
WILL DETERMINE BEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND THESE WILL BE MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED. AN ESTIMATE OF 0.10 TO 0.30" TOTAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE
CWA SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THIS EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH CAA OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...AND LINGERING PRECIP/THICK CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY NOT SEE HIGHS REACH 60F IF
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE VERIFIES AND PRECIP LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW I LOWERED TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS STILL
ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NAM/MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT
STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. FLOW IN GENERAL IS VERY COMPLICATED AND
LITTERED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW.
AT MID LEVELS THE ECMWF WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
NAM/SREF/GFS. MODELS LOOK TO INITIALLY BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD. THE UKMET AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DURING THE EVENING THERE LOOKS TO BE A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE EAST. DO EXPECT RAINFALL
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THIS EVENT ENDS. THE WINDS GO
LIGHT AND CLEARING DOES OCCUR. NOT A DEFINITE SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS BUT DO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
WEAK JET LIFT LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL LIFT IS AROUND. REMOTE CHANCE
THAT SOMETHING COULD FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN
COLORADO. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK. SO WILL KEEP IT
DRY.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SOME STRONGER UPPER JET LIFT COMES IN DURING
THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AIR MASS DRIES
AS HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE JET...WHICH MAY
ONLY CAUSE SOME CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MID
LEVEL LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE IS STILL NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. GUIDANCE STAYS
COOL AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WENT IN THAT DIRECTION.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO LOOKS TO BE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OUT
WEST. BEST LIFT LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THIS PERIOD. SO PULLED POPS
FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY AND CONFINED THEM TO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. WITH LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST AS SURFACE RIDGE PULLS
AWAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST. NOT THE BEST
DIRECTION FOR A WARMUP. SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SO THE CHANCE POPS THE CRH INIT POPS I WAS GIVEN LOOK
REASONABLE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF EVENTUALLY THEY WENT
HIGHER. AFTER THAT THE FORECAST GETS MORE UNCERTAIN. THROUGH
MONDAY THE MODELS SHOW THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES RISING TO
VARYING DEGREES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH IN A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ALSO DURING THIS TIME THE MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER...CAPPED AND DRIER
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH COOLER AND WETTER. ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST LEAVING THE AREA POSSIBLY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. SO MODEL OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPECT IN THE
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD AND TO ME LOOKS PROBLEMATIC TO TRY MAKE
ANY SENSE OR MAKE BIG CHANGES TO IT. SO CHOSE TO KEEP THE OVERALL POP
FIELD IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME WITH A CHANCE THAT EITHER EXTREME
COULD BECOME REALITY. ALSO KEPT REMAINING INHERITED INIT GRIDS
UNCHANGED.
&&
.AVIATION....(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MORNING STRATUS HAS ALREADY LIFTED AT MCK WHERE VFR CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
CIGS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF IMPROVING AT KGLD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH
BEST MOISTURE AT KGLD WHERE VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN VICINITY AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES SHOULD START OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY
HAVE IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS BY 12Z AT KGLD AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED
MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER VIS/CIGS...HOWEVER I
PREFER TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT BEFORE COMMITTING
THIS EARLY. WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10-14KT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH REGION WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20-25KT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING EASTERN KS AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW FROM ID INTO WY. AT THE SURFACE...OBS SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER AM NOT THAT OPTIMISTIC STORMS
WILL FORM. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG OVER CENTRAL KS WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AS NOTED IN THE MID
LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD OF 5 TO 10 KTS DOES NOT SUGGEST CONVERGENCE WITHIN
THE TROUGH AXIS IS VERY STRONG AND THE CU FIELD ON VISIBLE HAS NOT
SHOWN MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. IF SOMETHING WERE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
MAYBE NEAR MINNEAPOLIS. IF STORMS ARE UNABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING AND A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF CONVECTION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS AND MID RANGE MODELS
IS TO TRACK THE MCS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A SLOWER
AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE MCS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE THE
HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE NEB STATE
LINE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WITH PRECIP EVENTUALLY COMING TO
AN END THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE END OF
PRECIP IS LOW UNTIL THE ACTUALLY MCS FORMS AND WE GET A BETTER IDEA
OF WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH. BECAUSE OF THIS
HAVE HIGHS BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
WOLTERS
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY WANE WITH FRONT SINKING
SOUTH AND UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING IN. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIODS AGAIN LOOKING DRY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH MAINLY NORTHEAST LOCATIONS FOR POSSIBLE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
COOL MID LEVELS...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF NUISANCE-AT-MOST PRECIP. CLOUD COVER COULD
BE RATHER PREVALENT DESPITE DEEP BUT WEAK DOWNGLIDE AND WILL GO WITH
HIGHS A BIT BELOW MOS. MORE SUN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY THOUGH WEAKER
MIXING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH BEYOND THURSDAYS
EXPECTATIONS.
THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS TRENDING FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH MAIN
IMPACTS LIKELY COMING IN THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PERIODS.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY EARLY SUNDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES WERE REDUCED HERE.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THEIR RANGE...FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
SHARPEN THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT FOR WARM FRONT/WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIODS. THIS
IS UNDER A DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE...BUT IT AND MID LEVEL
TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK/COOL. BY TUESDAY...AGAIN BARRING ANY
PERSISTENT DAYTIME CONVECTION...HIGHS SHOULD RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
GIVEN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF THE WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST...THINK
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS OVERNIGHT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WHERE IT MAY TRACK. SO WILL MAINTAIN A VFR
FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY
WITH THE HIGH RES MODELS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE EXITING EASTERN KS
WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. BECAUSE OF THIS WILL TREND POPS DOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THEY ARE GENERATING CONVECTION BASED
ON LITTLE OR NO CIN. HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO LIFT PARCELS. THEREFORE THINK THE
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE AFTERNOON QPF. MODELS STILL SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MCS FORMATION OUT WEST AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN KS. THIS MAY BE WHAT PRODUCES THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A RATHER POOR JOB IN
DEPICTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXPECT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN
KANSAS TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL EASTWARD TREK. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS...EVIDENCED BY THE ACTIVITY THAT
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR/SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE IN THE PAST HOUR. AT THE
SAME TIME...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS/VEERS AND UPPER SUBSIDENCE FILLS IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD SEE ALL ACTIVITY DECREASE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING...LIKELY OWING TO THE CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 10K FEET. HRRR STILL CONVECTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN DOING SO...BUT HAS A TENDENCY
TO OVER-CONVECT DURING PEAK HEATING WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE SETUP EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
AT 3 AM...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LEAD
SHORT WAVE APPEARED TO HAVE AN AXIS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE SEEMED VAGUELY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND WIND PROFILES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE HAS
PROVIDED ENOUGH ASCENT IN AN ATMOSPHERE WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN STRONG
ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE OCCURRED...PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREAS OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH DRY LAYERS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
EAST AND PERSIST GIVEN THE ENHANCED ASCENT WITHIN AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD OR SEVERE ACTIVITY THOUGH.
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD TROUGH WITH AN
EXPECTATION OF A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF NORTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD SEE
RATHER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING.
HOWEVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE AND HEATING TODAY WHILE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SET UP NEAR THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...IN THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR PERHAPS
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A WARM CAPPING
LAYER AROUND 10K FEET IN ORDER TO INITIATE. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS
IN PLACE...IF STORMS DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHWEST OF A
CONCORDIA TO MANHATTAN TO EMPORIA LINE. THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE
FOCUSED ON HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WARRANTS MENTION OF A VERY SMALL TORNADO
POTENTIAL IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES FROM THE LCL TO 10K FEET. IT WOULD
THEN APPEAR THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD THE STORMS GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. ANY UPSCALE GROWTH IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH AND
WOULD SEEM TO BE FAVORED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN CONSISTENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ROTATE OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF
WEAK IMPULSES OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD GENERATE
ADEQUATE LIFT COINCIDENT WITH AN H85 FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ONLY CONSIDERATIONS TO RESOLVE
BEGIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE TROUGH AS THE 00Z NAM LAGS
BEHIND THE 00Z GFS. ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH SFC
FRONT REACHES BY PEAK HEATING TIME AND IF ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE FROM OVERTURNING. BEST CHANCES ATTM RESIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN
VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISM FROM THE FRONT.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS AREA MAY DEVELOP A
FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
PRECIP CHANCES END BY THURS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SEES DRY CONDITIONS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH COOL ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES COULD RESULT IN LOWS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SLIDING INTO THE LOW 50S. HIGHS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THE LOW 70S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. GULF
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW GENERATING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BUT OVERALL APPEARS TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HELPING TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY. LEFT MONDAY AFTERNOON DRY AT THIS TIME AS
DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST FOR ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS READING IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
GIVEN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF THE WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST...THINK
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS OVERNIGHT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WHERE IT MAY TRACK. SO WILL MAINTAIN A VFR
FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY
WITH THE HIGH RES MODELS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
108 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN
WI. CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE HAS
HELPED BRING CLEARING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH DISSIPATING HIGH
CLOUDS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVER THE CWA.
UPSTREAM...700-500 MB FGEN AND ASSOCIATED 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO CNTRL MN.
TODAY...THE GFS WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING AN AREA OF RAIN
INTO UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY THE AREA OF 300K-305K LIFT. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/NAM/GEM AND HIGH RES MODELS THAT KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN
INTO THE FAR SOUTH OR TO JUST ALONG THE WI BORDER WERE
PREFERRED...GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND
GENERALLY WEAK FORCING. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND. LAKE
BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS MN
INTO FAR WRN WI. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER NRN WI AND SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE SW HALF OF UPPER
MI. SO...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEAR THE WI BORDER DURING THE
EVENING WITH RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
OVER THE COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE EAST. THICKENING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF AS
MUCH WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE
AFFECTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL
LOOKING LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR SEEING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BROAD 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION...850-500MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...AND 290-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN THE PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
FOLLOW THAT IDEA...BUT STILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS /LIKELY VALUES/
ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
ROBUST WITH QPF ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING THE SHORTWAVE
AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA...SO POPS/QPF MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED UP FURTHER. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE THE WEST/CENTRAL SEEING BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN BY THE TIME IT ENDS ON THURSDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST
THE RAIN WILL REACH. WHEN DEALING WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS RUNNING
INTO THE EXISTING DRY AIR FROM AN EXITING HIGH...THE MODELS TEND TO
OVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE VARIABILITY
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL MENTION CHANCE/SLIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT...WITH THE MOISTURE DIVING SOUTH AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA FROM THE JAMES BAY HIGH...EXPECT DIMINISHING POPS/CLOUDS
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE
SOME MID CLOUDS LINGERING WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTS. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH OVER
NORTHWEST QUEBEC WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRY TO WARM
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR /FORECAST HIGHS 60S TO
LOWER 70S/...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER
THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE /AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS
WAVE WILL AMPLIFY A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
DESPITE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TO THE
SW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WITH HI PRES NEAR UPR MI
DOMINATING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL LOWER
ON WED WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AT IWD. DRY AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE TO
PREVENT ANY LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING AT IWD DUE TO THE RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO REAL STRONG PRESSURE
SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE AREA. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...WAVES WILL NOT BE
TOO HIGH EITHER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z...
STRETCHING FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO JUST WEST OF HEBRON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO POP UP JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEST OF OMAHA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST WITH HRRR PLACING EMPHASIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT EAST AND SOUTH OF
OMAHA. FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY REACHING
NORTHERN TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENT INDICATED
BY MODELS FOR LIMITED RAIN CHANCE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS STILL SHOW A COLD FRONT COMING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARMING TEMPERATURES
INDICATED AFTER THAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025 WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER KOFK AREA BY 22Z AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z AND COULD AFFECT KLNK
AND KOMA TAF SITES. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
BEHIND COLD FRONT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 04Z AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH ONLY MID LEVEL CIGS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1257 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TRYING TO REFINE
THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...AT LEAST SLIGHT
POPS ARE BEING ADVERTISED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA AT ANY GIVEN
TIME. ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
PROBABILITY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SECONDARY TO PRECIP...SKY COVER AND ITS
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AS WELL.
AT 0930Z...OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AF FEW FAIRLY
SUBTLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY-
BETTER DEFINED 1002 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CO/KS/OK
BORDER AREA. OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A 1025MB HIGH SAT OVER MT.
ALTHOUGH NOT INCREDIBLY WELL-DEFINED...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH CONNECTED THE LOW
PRESSURE AREAS AND EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS SEPARATED A PRIMARILY NORTHERLY BREEZE TO
ITS NORTH/WEST FROM A PREDOMINANT EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE STILL
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICTED THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-
DEFINED CLOSED 500MB LOW SPINNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY
KICKING ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS WAVE IS WORKING
IN CONCERT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 35+ KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET
AND ITS ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN THE
OVERNIGHT STORMS BEING A DUD IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALSO A
FEW CORES HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY PULSED UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY
SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL-WISE...RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE CWA
HAS STRUGGLED TO MEASURE ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER EXCEPTIONS EXIST...INCLUDING A LIKELY
CORRIDOR OF 1+ INCH THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN DAWSON COUNTY. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.
EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
GENERALLY EXPECTED THEME OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT OF
THE CWA FROM WEST-EAST IS OCCURRING...WITH MOST AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 ALREADY PRECIP-FREE AT THIS HOUR. THIS HAS TURNED OUT
TO BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...DISORGANIZED NOCTURNAL SUB-SEVERE
MULTICELL EVENT...AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE EVEN PENNY-NICKEL
SIZE HAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO ELEVATED CAPE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER AVERAGING UNDER 500 J/KG PER LATEST RAP AND
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC QPF FIELDS AND HIGHER-RES
REFLECTITY PROGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND FOCUSES MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRIED TO SHOW DIMINISHING POPS
WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WAS NOT ABOUT TO PULL COMPLETELY EXCEPT
IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA FROM
WEST-EAST...INCLUDING UP A THE 850MB LEVEL...AND THIS COULD
CERTAINLY SPARK THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SPOTTY CONVECTION...EVEN IF THERE IS A LULL FOR AWHILE...AND THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE 08Z HRRR. AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...STEADY NORTH BREEZES AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY INVADE FROM WEST-EAST...PROGRESSIVELY SHUNTING THE
FAIRLY MEAGER INSTABILITY AXIS EAST WITH IT. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...BOTH THE NAM/RAP FOCUS THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 0-1KM MLCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG JUST BARELY
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA...BUT POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR EDGES...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LOWER INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY AFFECT OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND ALTHOUGH NOT
SEEMING LIKELY...IT JUST CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
EAST/SOUTH OF A FULLERTON-RED CLOUD-STOCKTON LINE GIVEN DECENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT...AND THUS WILL KEEP A MARGINALLY
SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT GENERALLY
LINES UP WITH THE SPC DAY 1 5 PERCENT SEVERE CONTOUR. AGAIN
THOUGH... AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA STANDS A DECENT
CHANCE OF STAYING STORM-FREE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD AND TEMP-WISE
TODAY...THE BIG WILD CARD SEEMS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS MIGHT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS
LIKELY AT LEAST DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STRATUS...AND
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR STILL INSIST THAT
AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW CLOUDS COULD STILL DEVELOP AND
LINGER ACROSS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
AREAS...AM STARTING TO QUESTION THIS A BIT. AT LEAST FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL ASSUME THIS MIGHT STILL HAPPEN...AND THUS HAVE
RATHER HIGH SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TODAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN BANKING ON EXTENSIVE CLOUDS KEEPING HIGHS LOW-
MID 70S IN NEB ZONES AND MAINLY UPPER 70S IN KS. HOWEVER...IF ITS
ENDS UP SUNNIER THAN EXPECTED THEN SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WILL BE
NEEDED.
TURNING TO THE EVENING/TONIGHT PERIOD 00Z-12Z/7PM-7AM...CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP DETAILS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW...BUT HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
NO MORE THAN 40-50 PERCENT...AND EVEN THESE VALUES HOLD OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN COUNTIES. ALOFT...THE CWA WILL
COME UNDER INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
TO THE NORTH...THE CLOSED 500MB DAKOTAS LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO
FAR WESTERN MN BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WHILE AS IT DOES SO ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CWA GETS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER
JET...WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE A CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS TO TAKE AIM ON PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF
THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY
NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 5-10 MPH. BACKING UP AND FOCUSING ON
THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
DRY...AND HAVE MAINLY FOCUSED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS KS ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING/PERSISTING
NEAR THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS MAY
BE A STRETCH...AND EVEN IF IT WOULD OCCUR AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
SEVERE STORM THREAT AFTER 7PM. THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT...HAVE
GRADUALLY BROUGHT BACK UP 20-50 POPS INTO NEB ZONES...ONLY
EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF
REALIZING THIS LATE-NIGHT RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...WITH THIS AREA MOST FAVORED TO REALIZE CONVECTION
MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND/OR PRECIP DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD WITHIN THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION. CERTAINLY NOT
SEEING THIS AS A WIDESPREAD...HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS
THOUGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MEAGER...AT LEAST
SOUTHERN ZONES COULD STILL SEE ELEVATED CAPE OF 500+ J/KG...AND
THUS WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THIS LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT.
TEMP-WISE...CHANGED PREVIOUS LOWS VERY LITTLE...RANGING FROM NEAR
50 FAR NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WE BEGIN MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE AS THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...MORE LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUE TO BE. MUCAPES LOOK VERY LOW TO NON-EXISTENT...WHICH LED ME
TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING LACK OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.
THE JET STREAK SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD GIVE US A DRY PERIOD
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD MAKE ITS WAY
EAST AND BE MAINTAINED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
THE AXIS POTENTIALLY OVER OUR CWA. THE JET SHOULD BE ON THE MODEST
SIDE...AND INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE WITHIN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTRODUCED
FROM A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AS WELL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE HELP FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET COULD INTENSIFY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT BY THIS TIME...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD WIND UP STALLING...AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION TOWARD NEXT WORK WEEK. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO MONDAY OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL IN
TURN...KEEP US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY
PASSING WAVES/PERTURBATIONS TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
OVERALL...A GENERAL WARMING TREND FOR THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES...IS ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST
TO THE WEST...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGRI THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING FRONT CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COULD EVEN SEE A -TSRA OR TWO
NEAR THE TERMINAL DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...WITH A TRANSITION
TO ONLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS INSTABILITY WANES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS PASSING FRONT...GUSTING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING IS PLAYING A SIGNIFICANT
ROLE IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER OUR
ZONES. RADAR RETURNS SHOW AN ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH
MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE GENERATION...MAINLY FAVORED OVER
OUR SC ZONES WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A STRONGER SURFACE
THERMAL AXIS RESIDE. LAZY STORM MOTION TO THE EAST COULD ALLOW
SOLID RAIN AMOUNTS OVER INTERIOR SC...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BEFORE GRADUALLY WANING INTO EARLY
EVENING.
THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL BRING MIN TEMPS INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE VERY
IMMEDIATE COAST. WET GROUNDS AND ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEVEL OR BUMP UP
THE TEMPERATURE CURVES...AND MINIMUMS COULD BE REALIZED PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF OUR
AREA AND THE WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE STARTING THURSDAY
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS MODEL ARE BOTH BRINGING IN
2+ INCH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL BRING THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH THE 12 UTC ECMWF BRINGING THE STORM UP THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COASTAL
AREAS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE IN MODELS SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED. THIS INVOLVES LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF YUCATAN. PLENTY OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS THAT IT IS POISED TO
TRAVEL UP THE EASTERN U.S. THE MODEL SPREAD IS MOST RELATED TO THE
SPEED AND LONGITUDE OF ITS PATH...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS
SHOWING LESS DISAGREEMENT WITHIN A FEW MB OF WHAT IS OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO BE A WELL DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION. THAT SAID IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE REGION IS POISED TO GET SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER A TRACK WEST OF THE COASTLINE WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE TORNADO
SPINUPS EAST OF THE CENTER. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OR ALL OF THE
LOCAL AREA WILL FALL UNDER THAT CATEGORY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
THE TOTAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY DECREASE CONSIDERABLY BUT STILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION IN FAIRLY
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY DRY OUT IN THE MID
LEVELS AS THE FLOW VEERS JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPING.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF ANYTHING TO WRING IT OUT
THOUGH SOME SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...LIKELY
IN THE FORM OF ISO TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG SEA BREEZE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAYS PRIOR. LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SAVE FOR PROBABLY CLOUD-INDUCED
TEMPERANCE OF FRIDAYS HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MODELS STILL SHOWING SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA. DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE AS BROAD AS THE HRRR MODEL
IS DEPICTING DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH VCSH AT FLO
AND MYR. AN MVFR CEILING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
VFR PREDOMINATELY. TONIGHT...STRATUS MOVES BACK INTO THE PICTURE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NAM BEING THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z...CERTAINLY BY 09Z WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY NOON...BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING
NUMEROUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WAVES TRANSITIONING FROM A SOUTHERLY TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. INCREASING E-ENE FLOW IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS TRANSITION AND AS THIS OCCURS...THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS
SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 6 SECONDS MAKING FOR SLIGHTLY STEEPER WAVES
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT FOR THE MOST PART 15 KT OF SUSTAINED WIND IS EXPECTED. A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS...FAVORED
OVER THE SC WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF BEGIN TO DEVELOP WINDS...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND BY THURSDAY EVENING WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
TRACK OF THE LOW... THE FORECAST WINDS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE. SO
IF THE LOW DOES DEVELOP AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THEN
WE CAN EXPECT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST RIGHT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS TO BE MOVING UP
THE COAST ALTHOUGH ITS SPEED TRACK AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ITS
STRENGTH UNKNOWN. BEST FCST AT THIS TIME BRINGS THE LOW UP THE
IMMED COAST ON FRIDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM FCST ZONES...MOSTLY. ANY JOG FURTHER TO
THE WEST WOULD BRING MUCH HIGHER WIND AND SEAS INTO CAPE FEAR
REGION AND POSSIBLY GRAND STRAND WATERS AND ALSO GTOWN WATERS TO A
LESSER DEGREE. GIVEN CURRENT TRACK IT DOES APPEAR THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERNMOST WATERS AT 6 TO 7FT WIND WAVES
APPEAR LIKELY. DOMINANT PD SHOULD BE AROUND 7 SECONDS. FLOW
LIGHTENS AND REMAINS OFFSHORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
BROAD TROUGHINESS ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN U.S. KEEPS A W TO
SW SFC FLOW LOCALLY. DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE WANING WHILE AVG
PERIOD MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO PERSISTENT FETCH
LENGTH/DURATION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALMOST
MADE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE
AREA...BUT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....
MODELS INDICATE THE MID LEVEL DE-AMPLIFYING S/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS PERIOD...WITH ITS MEAN TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FA BY TONIGHT. THIS MOVEMENT WILL PUSH THE SFC COLD FRONT
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING...AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY.
CAA SOMEWHAT LACKING AFTER FROPA...HOWEVER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY
ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS...ISOLATED SHRA OR EVEN A TSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IN FACT...A RESULTANT WIND
BOUNDARY AKA SEA BREEZE...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...FURTHER AIDING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. OF
NOTE...THE HOURLY NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 500 MB AND 700 MB THAT WILL NEGATE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL...HAVE INDICATED ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR POST COLD FRONTAL
POPS...AND MAINLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. FOR TONIGHT...LOOKING AT
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN BY THE MODELS INDICATE A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE OR
WEAK WEDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS...STAYED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF MODEL MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP...ALONG WITH
THE STRONG INSOLATION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ON WED BUT KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
LOW. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW CLIMO AS WELL AS ADVECT ANY OFFSHORE
PRECIP TO THE COAST. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER SC WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
HIGHEST. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED FORCING/HEATING
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP LOW TOPPED AND LIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC
TO SLIGHT CHC POP.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FOR THU AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF GOMEX LOW. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLIMB OVER 2 INCHES THU AND THU NIGHT AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE ARRIVES. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE TROUGH PUSHES
INLAND DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES...HELPING EXPAND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC FOR PM AND
CARRY LIKELY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP WARM LAYER...FREEZING LEVEL
IS BETWEEN 14K AND 15K FT...AND STORM MOTION UNDER 10 KT POINT TO A
FLOODING AS THE MAIN THREAT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.
NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WED.
HIGHS END UP NEAR CLIMO THU WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION BATTLING CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW
BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL
TRACK DIFFERENCES WHICH COULD HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ILM
AREA. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL MOVE THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA
AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLUTION RANGE FROM LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
TO LOW PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA. WHILE BOTH TRACKS SUGGEST
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON FRI. THE BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. AN INLAND TRACK WOULD PUT THE ILM FORECAST AREA IN THE
FAVORED RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT. EVENT THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG WHEN IT REACHES THE AREA IT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPIN UP WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING POINTS TO A
FRI-FRI EVENING EVENT.
MID LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 5H TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS KEEPS GOMEX OPEN
AND PREVENTS REGION FROM DRYING OUT. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK THEY
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...SEA BREEZE AND WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT ENHANCING
FEATURES WILL PROBABLY KEEP COVERAGE NEAR CLIMO...30-40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI IS
EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST DAY THOUGH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
SAT-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MODELS STILL SHOWING SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA. DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE AS BROAD AS THE HRRR MODEL
IS DEPICTING DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH VCSH AT FLO
AND MYR. AN MVFR CEILING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
VFR PREDOMINATELY. TONIGHT...STRATUS MOVES BACK INTO THE PICTURE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NAM BEING THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z...CERTAINLY BY 09Z WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY NOON...BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING
NUMEROUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY
COVERING THE MARINE WATERS. SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE REGION. SEAS ARE
RUNNING TO 2 TO 4 FEET AND THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS
BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET WITH A FEW 5 FOOT WAVES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM
TUESDAY...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AROUND 15 KT WED INTO THU WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THU AS WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INTO FRI. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
MARGINALLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WIND FIELD DURING FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL
DEPEND ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING BUT LESS SO WITH
RESPECT TO TRACK AND STRENGTH. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SOLUTIONS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WPC FORECAST. THIS TRACKS THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ONLY THE CMC DEPICTS MORE THAN MARGINAL
STRENGTHENING SO WILL FAVOR WEAKER SOLUTIONS. FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES
WESTERLY AS THE LOW PASSES LATE FRI BUT THEN BACKS TO SOUTHWEST
SAT/SAT NIGHT AS BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK IN. PROLONGED AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FETCH FRI IN INTO SAT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6
FT BY FRI EVENING. SEAS MAY DROP BACK TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHES HIGHEST SEAS
BEYOND 20 NM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS/8/DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III/8
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL UTILIZE THE LATEST HRRR/RAP FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
20 UTC SURFACE LOW IS SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN WITH ITS WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM NEAR GWINNER
TO BROOKINGS SD. THE STACKED SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ESSENTIALLY
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 06 UTC...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THEREAFTER. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...BUT NARROW
CLEAR SLOT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAMESTOWN TO JUST WEST OF
WAHPETON. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL BE PRONE TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS GREATER LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY/
HELICITY IS REALIZED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND SHORT-LIVED.
TO THE NORTH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM WEST OF MINOT TO NEAR LAKOTA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...
BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. WITH WET/SATURATED
SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST ND...CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE 1 TO 2
INCHES ACCUMULATION FROM DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND FORKS TO PARK RAPIDS
WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3 TO 4 PLUS INCHES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15
UTC. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF COOL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING BY
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE ALL AGREEABLE WITH
THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE THE USUAL SPEED AND
PLACEMENT ISSUES. CONTINUED THE HIGH END CHANCE POPS. IT IS
LOOKING DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER OR COOLER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND UPPER WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS AT KFAR AND ROUNDING INTO KDVL.
EXPECT THIS BAND OF LOWER CIGS TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO KGFK
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS MAY GRADUALLY LOWER IN IFR CATEGORY BY
THIS EVENING...BASICALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME AREA...AND
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO KBJI TONIGHT. KFAR MAY SCATTER FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY TODAY THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ALREADY WET
SOILS DUE TO RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...OVERLAND FLOODING
AND FLOODING NEAR AREA RIVERS ARE A CONCERN.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE.
MOST TRIBUTARIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RED RIVER BASIN
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE TWO RIVERS RIVER
AT HALLOCK EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW OR
THURSDAY. CONTINUED INFLOW INTO THE RED IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL
RISES BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVER STAGES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026>030-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE SURFACE LOW/WARM
FRONT HAVE ESSENTIALLY REMAINED STATIONARY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS A NARROW FINGER OF CLEARING MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST ND FROM SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN TO NEAR GWINNER. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU FORMATION IN THIS CLEAR
SLOT. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THIS AREA FROM
500 TO 1000 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE WHERE OUR ATTENTION WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE INITIATION.
FARTHER NORTH...RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. DID ADJUST HIGHEST POPS NORTHWARD A BIT BASED ON 12 UTC
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT STILL EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IN THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
TWO MAIN CONCERNS TODAY. NUMBER ONE...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
NUMBER TWO...SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
15 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS CENTER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST ND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR BISMARCK WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JAMESTOWN TO WHEATON MN TO LITCHFIELD MN. LATEST RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS
MOVE THE SURFACE LOW AT A SNAIL/S PACE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...NEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLY BY 06 UTC TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AND EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF RAIN FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. WITHIN THIS BROADER
AREA...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 4
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS AND WET SOILS...WILL ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FROM 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12 UTC WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO FARGO TO FERGUS
FALLS...CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THIS AREA...SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 0 TO 1 KM CAPE UP TO 1200 J/KG AND VGP VALUES NEAR 0.2. WILL
NEED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO REALIZE FULL INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL...BUT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. PRIME TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 TO 6 PM AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
CAREFULLY.
UPDATED POPS/WX/SKY/TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE THINKING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
500 MB UPPER LOW APPROACHING BISMARCK ATTM WITH AREA OF RAIN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF UPPER LOW RUGBY BACK THROUGH MINOT AND WILLISTON.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AREA OF SHOWERS MORE ASSOC WITH 850
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO MINNESOTA. DRY SLOT WORKING INTO
SOUTHEAST-ECNTRL ND ATTM AND LOOKING AT LATEST HRRR WOULD THINK A
DRY PD IN PLACE INTO EARLY AFTN IN REGION FROM COOPERSTOWN TO
HILLSBORO SOUTHWARD TO SD BORDER. OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY IN THIS REGION IS TOO LOW TO DO SO BUT WILL
DOWNPLAY TO 20S. THEN STILL LOOKING INTERESTING MID TO LATE AFTN
WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND PSBL TORNADO THREAT IN NARROW ZONE
JUST EAST OF UPPER LOW AND JUST NORTH AND EAST OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO RUN NR A JAMESTOWN TO WAHPETON LINE.
HIGHEST VGP (0.24) OVER CASS COUNTY ND. COORD WITH ABR/BIS AND
HIGHLIGHTED THREAT IN WX STORY AND HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST AND BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK
AT 00Z. SFC LOW CIRCULATION WITH UPPER LOW TO BE JUST EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT 21Z. THRU MOST OF THE DAY....DO EXPECT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF UPR LOW AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS
THIS REGION OF OUR FCST AREA (MAINLY IN ZONE FROM ADA-HILLSBORO-
GRAND FORKS BACK THRU DEVILS LAKE).
OF BIG INTEREST IS DRY SLOT JUST EAST OF UPR LOW...WITH SOME
CLEARING LIKELY TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SE ND TODAY. ENOUGH SFC
HEATING INTO THE MID 60S SEEMS PSBL JAMESTOWN-VALLEY CITY-LISBON
AREA SOUTHWARD WITH SOME MID 50 DEW PTS. 06Z HRRR 3 KM MODEL
INDICATES WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY FROM NR JAMESTOWN TO LISBON TO
WAHPETON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO SOUTH DAKTOA AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF BOUNDARY. NAM12 ALSO SHOWS SOME HEALTHY VGP VALUES
(MORE THAN 0.2) ON NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY FROM RICHLAND COUNTY ND
TO GRIGGS CO ND. PER SWODY1 SOME THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES IN THIS NARROW ZONE AS HAPPENED IN SW ND MON AFTN.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ESE INTO CNTRL MN BY 12Z WED WITH FOCUS OF
RAIN DVL-GFK-PKD REGION...WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL STILL OF OVER AN
INCH SEEMS LIKELY LOCALLY 2 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT ENOUGH
FOR A FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AS RAINFALL RATES DONT
APPEAR TOO GREAT AND AREA UNDER THE GUN NOT QUITE AS WET AS
FARTHER NORTH.
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT WEDNESDAY SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVING DRY
CONDITIONS.
VARIOUS MODELS SEEM IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS FOR THE FRI-MON PERIOD. GEM/ECMWF/GFS/DGEX ALL SHOW A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGING.
ECMWF PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON SW OVER MANITOBA WITH -SHRA OVER
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AT 18Z FRIDAY. SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE
AND HAVE CUT POPS.
FOR SATURDAY RETURN MOISTURE AND A MORE ROBUST WAVE IN W/NW FLOW
SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS WEST TO EAST. WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN TO
THE EAST I LIKE THE IDEA OF A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
INCREASING POPS. CYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND SOME
CAPE ARGUE FOR TSRA.
FOR SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS JUNE THINK THE SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST. GFS/ECMWF SHOW COOLING ALOFT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AT LEAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE WITH THE FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LIKELY ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS AT KFAR AND ROUNDING INTO KDVL.
EXPECT THIS BAND OF LOWER CIGS TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO KGFK
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS MAY GRADUALLY LOWER IN IFR CATEGORY BY
THIS EVENING...BASICALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME AREA...AND
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO KBJI TONIGHT. KFAR MAY SCATTER FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY TODAY THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ALREADY WET
SOILS DUE TO RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...OVERLAND FLOODING
AND FLOODING NEAR AREA RIVERS ARE A CONCERN.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING
CONTINUES EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN
AS DRAINAGE IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS. WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE.
MOST TRIBUTARIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RED RIVER BASIN
CONTINUE TO FALL. THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE TWO RIVERS RIVER
AT HALLOCK EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW OR
THURSDAY. CONTINUED INFLOW INTO THE RED IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL
RISES BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVER STAGES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026>030-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
439 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE WEEK...AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO OUR AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX RIGHT
OVER THE CWFA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ALL
SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE BEHIND THIS VORT...WHICH MAY EXPLAIN
WHY SUCH A HEALTHY CU FIELD ON VIS SAT IS NOT DEVELOPING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE LAPS CAPE IN THE NC MTNS AND NW PIEDMONT ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...WHILE THE UPSTATE AND NE GA HAVE
1000 J/KG TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ALONG SE BORDER OF CWFA. THE CAE RADAR
SHOWS A NWWD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BNDRY APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDLANDS. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS AGREE ON A FEW SHWRS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OUTFLOW...GENERALLY AFT SUNSET. SO I HAVE TRIMMED POP BACK
TO JUST SLGT CHC...FAVORING THE NC MTNS AND THE LWR PIEDMONT CLOSE
TO THE OUTFLOW BNDRY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET EVENING. THE REST
OF THE GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK.
AT 230 PM EDT...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE REMAINS OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
ENE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO ENE...INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT PROFILES ARE NOT CAPPED ON WEDNESDAY.
VERY LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK MID
LEVEL CAP. ALTHOUGH FLOW BECOMES MORE ORTHOGONAL TO ELEVATED TERRAIN
WITH TIME...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LOWERS THE CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHETHER THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF
THE FRONT DRIFTING NORTH...OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE SURGING INTO OUR
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
REMAINS IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED
ON WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING UPSLOPE FLOW AND NO CAP ALOFT SUPPORT A
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL..WITH MAXIMUMS
WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS COVER INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE OHIO
AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WED NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS WRN NC
WED EVENING. THE WAVE ACTUALLY HAS CONVECTIVE ORIGINS AND IT SHOWS
UP WELL ON THE 12 UTC GFS INITIALIZATION AND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE ERN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST WITH A VERY WEAK LOOKING WEDGE SIGNATURE OVER THE
REGION...THOUGH THIS COULD BE MORE THE RESULT OF A DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROUGH. AT ANY RATE...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE WEAK OVER THE
REGION...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVER THE SOUTH...AND 10 TO 15
KTS OVER WRN NC. BUT PW/S WILL INCREASE TO 150-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. THIS KIND OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND I
HAVE POPS ACTUALLY INCREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATER AT
NIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ANY CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER
OFF. CONSIDERING THE HIGH PW/S THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
THE GFS TAKES ANOTHER MCV ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL LOW SLOWLY
ORGANIZING NEAR THE NRN YUCATAN SHOULD BEGIN MOVING UP...OR AT LEAST
TOWARED...THE SE COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
TRACKING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MUCH TOO
FAR TO THE WEST...EXHIBITING IT/S USUAL PROBLEMS WITH TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IF IT WERE TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-LANDS WHILE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING A SWATH OF HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WRN CAROLINAS. IT
APPEARS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME THAT WE WILL BE CONTENDING
MORE WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD STILL BRING PLENTY
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AND JUST ADD ANOTHER WRINKLE...IF THE GULF LOW WERE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED...SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE LOW COULD ACTUALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE REGION STARTING LATER ON THU.
BY FRIDAY THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM A WAYS TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH
THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF IS ALMOST 18 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY OUR MOST
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS FROM THE LOW WOULDN/T BE UNTIL FRIDAY. I
ORIGINALLY WROTE THIS SAYING THAT WE WOULD FACE A SEVERE THREAT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF...THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FRIDAY
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS FAIRLY UNSETTLED.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW TRACK...BRINGING IT FARTHER EAST AND
MINIMIZING EFFECTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING DURING THE SAME PERIOD...PRECIPITATION LOOKS
FAIRLY LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY. POPS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND A SECONDARY FRONT
PASSES ON SUNDAY. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO BE CAPPED
FAIRLY WELL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND AND FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TO THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CIGS...WHICH COULD
OCCUR AT KCLT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A LOW VFR CIG IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FREQUENT BREAKS. LIGHT ENE
WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY VEER TO ESE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW END
MVFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND SHOWS SOME IFR CIGS AT
SURROUNDING SITES. BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS LOW VFR VSBY BRIEFLY AT
DAYBREAK. CIG IMPROVES TO MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT OT LOW VFR SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...AND WILL PERSIST WITH FREQUENT BREAKS INTO
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR CIGS AT FOOTHILLS SITES BY
DAYBREAK...BUT VLIFR OR LIFR AT KAVL. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LIMITS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS N AND S OF KAVL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CIGS LIFT TO MVFR BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. NE WINDS VEER EAST
IN THE FOOTHILLS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN SE AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY IN A PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW
AROUND A SFC HIGH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH MORNING
FOG/STRATUS INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RETURN TO
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THU-SAT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 98% HIGH 84%
KGSP HIGH 94% HIGH 83% HIGH 95% HIGH 82%
KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 82% MED 64% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 96% HIGH 87% HIGH 94%
KGMU HIGH 98% HIGH 87% HIGH 98% MED 74%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 83% HIGH 82%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH/VISIN
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JOH/VISIN
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
558 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WHILE A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS OR 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE EITHER A VCTS OR TEMPO GROUP AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MVFR FOR CEILINGS AS LOWER CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
UPDATE..
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 277.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK WHILE THE
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL TX/OK PANHANDLES. LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
EVENING. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITHIN A 200 MI RADIUS OF KAMA ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CU DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM. LIKE
YESTERDAY HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. EVENING POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AS LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE NEAR THE
FRONT AND DRYLINE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. FURTHERMORE A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET MAY
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD LATER IN THE DAY WED AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AMA CWA...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW
LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER UPSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER SO THE INTENSITY OF DIURNAL
HEATING WILL NOT BE AS GREAT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM...
HAVE DECREASED STORM CHANCES THURS DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH
THE UPPER AIR WX PATTERN DISPLAYING A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES IN THE
EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
POPS WITH THE THINKING THAT ANY CONVECTION FORMING ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
BEYOND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MID WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL QUITE A
WAYS OUT IN TIME.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT...THEREBY PRECLUDING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEK. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD SO ITS LIKELY SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE VERY LITTLE OR NOT EVEN ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
552 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.UPDATE..
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 277.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK WHILE THE
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL TX/OK PANHANDLES. LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
EVENING. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITHIN A 200 MI RADIUS OF KAMA ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CU DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM. LIKE
YESTERDAY HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. EVENING POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AS LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE NEAR THE
FRONT AND DRYLINE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. FURTHERMORE A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET MAY
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD LATER IN THE DAY WED AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AMA CWA...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW
LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER UPSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER SO THE INTENSITY OF DIURNAL
HEATING WILL NOT BE AS GREAT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM...
HAVE DECREASED STORM CHANCES THURS DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH
THE UPPER AIR WX PATTERN DISPLAYING A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES IN THE
EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
POPS WITH THE THINKING THAT ANY CONVECTION FORMING ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
BEYOND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MID WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL QUITE A
WAYS OUT IN TIME.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT...THEREBY PRECLUDING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEK. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD SO ITS LIKELY SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE VERY LITTLE OR NOT EVEN ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
358 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK WHILE THE
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL TX/OK PANHANDLES. LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
EVENING. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITHIN A 200 MI RADIUS OF KAMA ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW CU DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM. LIKE
YESTERDAY HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. EVENING POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AS LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE NEAR THE
FRONT AND DRYLINE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. FURTHERMORE A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET MAY
SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS GOOD LATER IN THE DAY WED AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AMA CWA...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW
LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER UPSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER SO THE INTENSITY OF DIURNAL
HEATING WILL NOT BE AS GREAT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...
HAVE DECREASED STORM CHANCES THURS DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH
THE UPPER AIR WX PATTERN DISPLAYING A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES IN THE
EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
POPS WITH THE THINKING THAT ANY CONVECTION FORMING ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
BEYOND SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH MAY MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MID WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL QUITE A
WAYS OUT IN TIME.
CLK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT...THEREBY PRECLUDING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEK. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD SO ITS LIKELY SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE VERY LITTLE OR NOT EVEN ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 63 78 55 78 57 / 30 20 30 10 20
BEAVER OK 67 70 54 81 54 / 60 30 20 5 10
BOISE CITY OK 59 69 53 78 56 / 60 40 30 20 30
BORGER TX 71 75 58 80 62 / 30 20 30 10 20
BOYS RANCH TX 67 78 58 82 59 / 30 30 30 10 20
CANYON TX 63 78 57 79 57 / 20 20 40 10 20
CLARENDON TX 64 81 59 78 58 / 30 20 30 10 20
DALHART TX 61 74 54 78 57 / 40 30 30 10 30
GUYMON OK 64 71 55 81 57 / 60 30 30 10 20
HEREFORD TX 62 77 58 78 57 / 20 20 40 10 30
LIPSCOMB TX 69 72 56 80 56 / 50 30 30 10 10
PAMPA TX 65 73 56 77 57 / 30 20 30 10 20
SHAMROCK TX 66 82 59 79 57 / 40 20 30 10 10
WELLINGTON TX 67 85 61 82 60 / 30 20 40 10 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW IS ON THE PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER WITH THIS RAIN.
CURRENTLY...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ANALYZED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL IOWA.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE POKING UP INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA PER 04.18Z RAP ANALYSIS. BECAUSE OF THIS...THUNDER
HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CELLS TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN GREATLY LIMITED FROM GREEN BAY WEST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE RAIN HAS NOT LET UP FOR MUCH
OF TODAY.
AS THIS FIRST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATER IN THE EVENING. DEEP LIFT WILL
OCCUR AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH. WHILE THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THAT CAN HEAT UP A BIT. A NARROW CHANNEL
OF 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE DOES APPEAR TO FORM
AHEAD OF THIS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND COULD LEAD TO SOME
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THIS LINE. THIS IS ALL CONDITIONAL UPON
SKIES CLEARING OUT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY UP HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS DECENT AT 40
KTS...BUT IS UNIDIRECTIONAL ALOFT WITH NOT MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ZERO. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRENDING THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE MID TO SURFACE LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE IN WITH IT. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
WHILE THE OVERALL IDEA FOR THE 500MB PATTERN IS SIMILAR GOING INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO
THE REGION...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES OF THIS VORT MAX
BETWEEN THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM. THE 04.12Z ECMWF DIVES THE
TROUGH FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH WHICH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 04.12Z GFS/GEM TAKE THE
TROUGH MORE WEST TO EAST AND KEEPS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHICH SOLUTION
WILL BE CORRECT...THEY ALL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TIMING OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDING ON SUNDAY
THOUGH THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING A TAD SLOWER WITH THE CLEARING.
NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS LIFTS A WARM FRONT
BACK INTO THE REGION. LEFT SOME SMALL CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013
A COUPLE OF PASSING MID LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING. CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INITIALLY
START OUT VFR...BUT AS THE -SHRA/-RA CONTINUES AND THE LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
THIS EVENING THEN INTO MVFR/IFR FOR LATER TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
INSTABILITY THRU TONIGHT WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH TSRA LOOKING TO BE
ISOLATED. LEFT TSRA/CB MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...BUT IF ONE WAS
TO OCCUR THE TIME OF GREATER CHANCE WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THRU TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ADDED MVFR BR TO KRST AFTER 03Z AND TO KLSE AFTER 08Z. THESE
MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE WED MORNING WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS AND A REMNANT SFC LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS