Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/03/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT SAT JUN 01 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2013
Quite a bit of stratiform rain remains over portions of southern
Indiana and west central Kentucky this morning in the wake of the
line of storms early this morning. Showers further to the south are
a bit more convective in nature. Have updated the grids to reflect
the current radar trends and take the chances for thunderstorms this
morning down to isolated. It still looks like we could see more
convection developing this afternoon, though the best chances for
strong to severe storms looks to be over southern and eastern
portions of the region where cloud cover is less and more
instability can develop. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty
in the forecast and it will need to be monitored closely today to
see how things evolve.
&&
.Short Term (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 01 2013
Rather complex forecast unfolding early this morning, as incoming
convection casts quite a bit of uncertainty onto the forecast for
this afternoon into the overnight hours. All of this action is in
response to an expansive upper-level low, which will accelerate into
the Great Lakes this afternoon. An associated cold front will slide
through the region this evening through the overnight hours,
allowing drier and cooler conditions to work in for Sunday.
An expansive MCS continues to slide southeast across portions of
Missouri/Illinois/Indiana this morning. This activity continues to
be fueled by a 40-50 knot low-level jet, supplying copious amounts
of moisture. Some of this activity has briefly caused some
marginally severe wind gusts. However, 0-3km shear vectors oriented
mainly parallel to the cold pool is prohibiting intense upright
convection along the gust front, thus keeping the severe threat
rather isolated. Nonetheless, an isolated severe storm or two
cannot be ruled out within small bowing segments as it approaches
from the northwest early this morning.
The major question then becomes how quickly this morning activity
dissipates/pushes east, and what effect that will have on
instability this afternoon and evening. Guidance is all over the
place, with the latest RAP guidance still depicting 2500 J/kg of
MLCAPE developing late this afternoon ahead of the cold front.
Think the NAM/GFS are more realistic, painting anywhere from about
800-1400 J/kg by late this afternoon. This parameter will be
paramount in determining the severe risk throughout the day, as
lingering clouds/precipitation through the day will largely mitigate
the severe risk. Most of the hi-res guidance focuses the best
instability across southern Kentucky, as this area is most likely to
be unaffected by this approaching morning MCS. This will create a
split across the CWA, with the better dynamics focused across
southern IN/northern KY, while the best instability will reside
across southern Kentucky. Regardless, as the main shortwave ejects
out of the larger scale trough and spreads height falls over the
synoptic cold front, widespread convection looks to break out late
this afternoon into the evening, especially across southern KY.
0-6km shear of 30-40 knots will favor organized convection across
the entire region. The accelerating cold front and large-scale
forcing for ascent will favor mainly a linear storm mode, although a
transient supercell structure will be possible as storms initially
develop. 0-1km shear values of 25-35 knots will promote at least
some tornado risk, although surface winds do not appear as if they
will be quite as backed (SSE) as was suggested in previous model
runs, thus lower 0-1SRH is forecast. Large hail will also be
possible, especially across southern Kentucky where the best
instability will reside, but the expected QLCS storm mode may temper
that threat as well. The bottom line: The severe threat will
largely hinge on afternoon destabilization. If we can destabilize,
a severe QLCS capable of mainly damaging winds will materialize.
Large hail and a few isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Stay
tuned to the forecast throughout the day as the details regarding
the decaying MCS and resulting instability become more apparent.
The synoptic cold front will push through by Sunday evening. Some
guidance is showing the potential for a few showers across southern
IN as the main trough axis swings through Sunday evening, but will
keep the forecast dry for now as moisture looks limited. Highs
Sunday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with westerly flow.
.Long Term (Sunday Night - Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2013
No major changes, as an exiting front will bring lingering rains
only over the far eastern forecast area, as an upper trough passes.
Forecast highs for Monday will be roughly 5 degrees below normal,
under a brief thickness minimum that will allow for pleasant
readings through Tuesday. Upper ridge builds in Wednesday, so kept
low/nil rain chances through at least then, but temperatures will go
over climo slightly by the end of the work week. Lows will rise
uniformly Wednesday through Friday. Morning readings should start to
go above normal Thursday. Storm chances enter the picture again as
heights fall and moisture increases Thursday and Friday. Coverage
should be scattered, mainly during peak heating.
&&
.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Jun 01 2013
The TAF forecast remains tricky for this afternoon and evening due
to uncertainty with storm development. Clouds and precipitation have
kept instability to a minimum over SDF and BWG through the morning.
However, clouds are beginning to break up this afternoon. In
addition most of the short term models develop a line of
thunderstorms this afternoon to the west of the area and bring them
across all terminals from the late afternoon through the evening
hours. Have therefore kept VCTS in the forecast for all the TAF
sites, but tried to refine the window of storm opportunity tonight
somewhat.
The storms should move out by early tomorrow morning. Cloud cover
will hang around and MVFR cigs will look to develop at least at BWG
and LEX towards sunrise. Bases should begin to lift through the day
tomorrow.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........EER
Short Term.......KD
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
943 AM EDT SAT JUN 01 2013
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2013
Quite a bit of stratiform rain remains over portions of southern
Indiana and west central Kentucky this morning in the wake of the
line of storms early this morning. Showers further to the south are
a bit more convective in nature. Have updated the grids to reflect
the current radar trends and take the chances for thunderstorms this
morning down to isolated. It still looks like we could see more
convection developing this afternoon, though the best chances for
strong to severe storms looks to be over southern and eastern
portions of the region where cloud cover is less and more
instability can develop. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty
in the forecast and it will need to be monitored closely today to
see how things evolve.
&&
.Short Term (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 01 2013
Rather complex forecast unfolding early this morning, as incoming
convection casts quite a bit of uncertainty onto the forecast for
this afternoon into the overnight hours. All of this action is in
response to an expansive upper-level low, which will accelerate into
the Great Lakes this afternoon. An associated cold front will slide
through the region this evening through the overnight hours,
allowing drier and cooler conditions to work in for Sunday.
An expansive MCS continues to slide southeast across portions of
Missouri/Illinois/Indiana this morning. This activity continues to
be fueled by a 40-50 knot low-level jet, supplying copious amounts
of moisture. Some of this activity has briefly caused some
marginally severe wind gusts. However, 0-3km shear vectors oriented
mainly parallel to the cold pool is prohibiting intense upright
convection along the gust front, thus keeping the severe threat
rather isolated. Nonetheless, an isolated severe storm or two
cannot be ruled out within small bowing segments as it approaches
from the northwest early this morning.
The major question then becomes how quickly this morning activity
dissipates/pushes east, and what effect that will have on
instability this afternoon and evening. Guidance is all over the
place, with the latest RAP guidance still depicting 2500 J/kg of
MLCAPE developing late this afternoon ahead of the cold front.
Think the NAM/GFS are more realistic, painting anywhere from about
800-1400 J/kg by late this afternoon. This parameter will be
paramount in determining the severe risk throughout the day, as
lingering clouds/precipitation through the day will largely mitigate
the severe risk. Most of the hi-res guidance focuses the best
instability across southern Kentucky, as this area is most likely to
be unaffected by this approaching morning MCS. This will create a
split across the CWA, with the better dynamics focused across
southern IN/northern KY, while the best instability will reside
across southern Kentucky. Regardless, as the main shortwave ejects
out of the larger scale trough and spreads height falls over the
synoptic cold front, widespread convection looks to break out late
this afternoon into the evening, especially across southern KY.
0-6km shear of 30-40 knots will favor organized convection across
the entire region. The accelerating cold front and large-scale
forcing for ascent will favor mainly a linear storm mode, although a
transient supercell structure will be possible as storms initially
develop. 0-1km shear values of 25-35 knots will promote at least
some tornado risk, although surface winds do not appear as if they
will be quite as backed (SSE) as was suggested in previous model
runs, thus lower 0-1SRH is forecast. Large hail will also be
possible, especially across southern Kentucky where the best
instability will reside, but the expected QLCS storm mode may temper
that threat as well. The bottom line: The severe threat will
largely hinge on afternoon destabilization. If we can destabilize,
a severe QLCS capable of mainly damaging winds will materialize.
Large hail and a few isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Stay
tuned to the forecast throughout the day as the details regarding
the decaying MCS and resulting instability become more apparent.
The synoptic cold front will push through by Sunday evening. Some
guidance is showing the potential for a few showers across southern
IN as the main trough axis swings through Sunday evening, but will
keep the forecast dry for now as moisture looks limited. Highs
Sunday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with westerly flow.
.Long Term (Sunday Night - Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2013
No major changes, as an exiting front will bring lingering rains
only over the far eastern forecast area, as an upper trough passes.
Forecast highs for Monday will be roughly 5 degrees below normal,
under a brief thickness minimum that will allow for pleasant
readings through Tuesday. Upper ridge builds in Wednesday, so kept
low/nil rain chances through at least then, but temperatures will go
over climo slightly by the end of the work week. Lows will rise
uniformly Wednesday through Friday. Morning readings should start to
go above normal Thursday. Storm chances enter the picture again as
heights fall and moisture increases Thursday and Friday. Coverage
should be scattered, mainly during peak heating.
&&
.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Sat Jun 01 2013
Rather complex forecast for this TAF period, as incoming morning
convection casts uncertainty on redevelopment this afternoon and
evening. In the near term, showers and thunderstorms will continue
to weaken as they push through KSDF and KBWG. Based on latest radar
trends, seems as if thunderstorms could linger a bit longer at KBWG
as the convection stalls its southward progression, thus will
continue VCTS through 14Z. Not sure KLEX will see much thunderstorm
activity (or even shower activity for that matter), thus will only
keep VCSH wording in for the morning hours.
The forecast for this afternoon largely hinges on the development of
instability and the location of any outflow boundaries. Guidance
continues to suggest that the atmosphere will recover enough to
produce additional convection as a surface cold front approaches.
The timing, strength, and location of this developing convection
remains rather uncertain due to the reasons above, thus will
continue with a rather prolonged period of VCTS. Any thunderstorm
will be capable of strong winds and MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities. The cold front will push into the TAF sites toward
the end of the period, bringing a lower stratus deck with it. Will
introduce MVFR ceilings for this, but even lower ceilings may be
needed in coming forecasts.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........EER
Short Term.......KD
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........KD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
715 AM EDT SAT JUN 01 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Short Term (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 01 2013
Rather complex forecast unfolding early this morning, as incoming
convection casts quite a bit of uncertainty onto the forecast for
this afternoon into the overnight hours. All of this action is in
response to an expansive upper-level low, which will accelerate into
the Great Lakes this afternoon. An associated cold front will slide
through the region this evening through the overnight hours,
allowing drier and cooler conditions to work in for Sunday.
An expansive MCS continues to slide southeast across portions of
Missouri/Illinois/Indiana this morning. This activity continues to
be fueled by a 40-50 knot low-level jet, supplying copious amounts
of moisture. Some of this activity has briefly caused some
marginally severe wind gusts. However, 0-3km shear vectors oriented
mainly parallel to the cold pool is prohibiting intense upright
convection along the gust front, thus keeping the severe threat
rather isolated. Nonetheless, an isolated severe storm or two
cannot be ruled out within small bowing segments as it approaches
from the northwest early this morning.
The major question then becomes how quickly this morning activity
dissipates/pushes east, and what effect that will have on
instability this afternoon and evening. Guidance is all over the
place, with the latest RAP guidance still depicting 2500 J/kg of
MLCAPE developing late this afternoon ahead of the cold front.
Think the NAM/GFS are more realistic, painting anywhere from about
800-1400 J/kg by late this afternoon. This parameter will be
paramount in determining the severe risk throughout the day, as
lingering clouds/precipitation through the day will largely mitigate
the severe risk. Most of the hi-res guidance focuses the best
instability across southern Kentucky, as this area is most likely to
be unaffected by this approaching morning MCS. This will create a
split across the CWA, with the better dynamics focused across
southern IN/northern KY, while the best instability will reside
across southern Kentucky. Regardless, as the main shortwave ejects
out of the larger scale trough and spreads height falls over the
synoptic cold front, widespread convection looks to break out late
this afternoon into the evening, especially across southern KY.
0-6km shear of 30-40 knots will favor organized convection across
the entire region. The accelerating cold front and large-scale
forcing for ascent will favor mainly a linear storm mode, although a
transient supercell structure will be possible as storms initially
develop. 0-1km shear values of 25-35 knots will promote at least
some tornado risk, although surface winds do not appear as if they
will be quite as backed (SSE) as was suggested in previous model
runs, thus lower 0-1SRH is forecast. Large hail will also be
possible, especially across southern Kentucky where the best
instability will reside, but the expected QLCS storm mode may temper
that threat as well. The bottom line: The severe threat will
largely hinge on afternoon destabilization. If we can destabilize,
a severe QLCS capable of mainly damaging winds will materialize.
Large hail and a few isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Stay
tuned to the forecast throughout the day as the details regarding
the decaying MCS and resulting instability become more apparent.
The synoptic cold front will push through by Sunday evening. Some
guidance is showing the potential for a few showers across southern
IN as the main trough axis swings through Sunday evening, but will
keep the forecast dry for now as moisture looks limited. Highs
Sunday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with westerly flow.
.Long Term (Sunday Night - Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2013
No major changes, as an exiting front will bring lingering rains
only over the far eastern forecast area, as an upper trough passes.
Forecast highs for Monday will be roughly 5 degrees below normal,
under a brief thickness minimum that will allow for pleasant
readings through Tuesday. Upper ridge builds in Wednesday, so kept
low/nil rain chances through at least then, but temperatures will go
over climo slightly by the end of the work week. Lows will rise
uniformly Wednesday through Friday. Morning readings should start to
go above normal Thursday. Storm chances enter the picture again as
heights fall and moisture increases Thursday and Friday. Coverage
should be scattered, mainly during peak heating.
&&
.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Sat Jun 01 2013
Rather complex forecast for this TAF period, as incoming morning
convection casts uncertainty on redevelopment this afternoon and
evening. In the near term, showers and thunderstorms will continue
to weaken as they push through KSDF and KBWG. Based on latest radar
trends, seems as if thunderstorms could linger a bit longer at KBWG
as the convection stalls its southward progression, thus will
continue VCTS through 14Z. Not sure KLEX will see much thunderstorm
activity (or even shower activity for that matter), thus will only
keep VCSH wording in for the morning hours.
The forecast for this afternoon largely hinges on the development of
instability and the location of any outflow boundaries. Guidance
continues to suggest that the atmosphere will recover enough to
produce additional convection as a surface cold front approaches.
The timing, strength, and location of this developing convection
remains rather uncertain due to the reasons above, thus will
continue with a rather prolonged period of VCTS. Any thunderstorm
will be capable of strong winds and MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities. The cold front will push into the TAF sites toward
the end of the period, bringing a lower stratus deck with it. Will
introduce MVFR ceilings for this, but even lower ceilings may be
needed in coming forecasts.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Short Term.......KD
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........KD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT SAT JUN 01 2013
.Short Term (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 01 2013
Rather complex forecast unfolding early this morning, as incoming
convection casts quite a bit of uncertainty onto the forecast for
this afternoon into the overnight hours. All of this action is in
response to an expansive upper-level low, which will accelerate into
the Great Lakes this afternoon. An associated cold front will slide
through the region this evening through the overnight hours,
allowing drier and cooler conditions to work in for Sunday.
An expansive MCS continues to slide southeast across portions of
Missouri/Illinois/Indiana this morning. This activity continues to
be fueled by a 40-50 knot low-level jet, supplying copious amounts
of moisture. Some of this activity has briefly caused some
marginally severe wind gusts. However, 0-3km shear vectors oriented
mainly parallel to the cold pool is prohibiting intense upright
convection along the gust front, thus keeping the severe threat
rather isolated. Nonetheless, an isolated severe storm or two
cannot be ruled out within small bowing segments as it approaches
from the northwest early this morning.
The major question then becomes how quickly this morning activity
dissipates/pushes east, and what effect that will have on
instability this afternoon and evening. Guidance is all over the
place, with the latest RAP guidance still depicting 2500 J/kg of
MLCAPE developing late this afternoon ahead of the cold front.
Think the NAM/GFS are more realistic, painting anywhere from about
800-1400 J/kg by late this afternoon. This parameter will be
paramount in determining the severe risk throughout the day, as
lingering clouds/precipitation through the day will largely mitigate
the severe risk. Most of the hi-res guidance focuses the best
instability across southern Kentucky, as this area is most likely to
be unaffected by this approaching morning MCS. This will create a
split across the CWA, with the better dynamics focused across
southern IN/northern KY, while the best instability will reside
across southern Kentucky. Regardless, as the main shortwave ejects
out of the larger scale trough and spreads height falls over the
synoptic cold front, widespread convection looks to break out late
this afternoon into the evening, especially across southern KY.
0-6km shear of 30-40 knots will favor organized convection across
the entire region. The accelerating cold front and large-scale
forcing for ascent will favor mainly a linear storm mode, although a
transient supercell structure will be possible as storms initially
develop. 0-1km shear values of 25-35 knots will promote at least
some tornado risk, although surface winds do not appear as if they
will be quite as backed (SSE) as was suggested in previous model
runs, thus lower 0-1SRH is forecast. Large hail will also be
possible, especially across southern Kentucky where the best
instability will reside, but the expected QLCS storm mode may temper
that threat as well. The bottom line: The severe threat will
largely hinge on afternoon destabilization. If we can destabilize,
a severe QLCS capable of mainly damaging winds will materialize.
Large hail and a few isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Stay
tuned to the forecast throughout the day as the details regarding
the decaying MCS and resulting instability become more apparent.
The synoptic cold front will push through by Sunday evening. Some
guidance is showing the potential for a few showers across southern
IN as the main trough axis swings through Sunday evening, but will
keep the forecast dry for now as moisture looks limited. Highs
Sunday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with westerly flow.
.Long Term (Sunday Night - Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2013
No major changes, as an exiting front will bring lingering rains
only over the far eastern forecast area, as an upper trough passes.
Forecast highs for Monday will be roughly 5 degrees below normal,
under a brief thickness minimum that will allow for pleasant
readings through Tuesday. Upper ridge builds in Wednesday, so kept
low/nil rain chances through at least then, but temperatures will go
over climo slightly by the end of the work week. Lows will rise
uniformly Wednesday through Friday. Morning readings should start to
go above normal Thursday. Storm chances enter the picture again as
heights fall and moisture increases Thursday and Friday. Coverage
should be scattered, mainly during peak heating.
&&
.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Sat Jun 01 2013
Rather complex forecast this TAF period, as several rounds of
convection look to impact all terminals. In the near term, current
convection across Missouri/Illinois will continue toward TAF sites
overnight, entering into KSDF and KBWG during the pre-dawn hours.
Quite a bit of uncertainty still exists on just how strong this line
of showers/storms will be as it pushes in, thus will continue to
carry prevailing -SHRA with VCTS. Will amend with prevailing TS as
warranted once confidence increases in thunderstorms reaching these
TAF sites.
After this initial round of thunderstorms moves through,
precipitation should mostly taper off to some light shower activity
for a few hours as the atmosphere recovers. However, by the late
morning into the afternoon hours, instability will once again build
and storms will redevelop. These storms will generally be scattered
through the early afternoon hours, but a more concentrated line
should develop across southern Indiana by the late afternoon,
pushing southeast through all sites through the evening and
overnight hours. Unfortunately, precise timing is still unknown as
all development largely hinders on this morning`s convection, thus
will continue with VCTS wording over a rather broad timeframe. Any
storm that develops from this morning into the overnight hours will
carry gusty winds and heavy rain which will drop sites into MVFR/IFR
categories.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Short Term.......KD
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........KD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
145 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO BLOSSOM NORTH OF
THE AREA NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS AS IT WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTH...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE
IF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AND COULD IMPACT OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND NONE OF THE
HI-RES MODELS BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST LATER
THIS MORNING. THUS...GOING TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH. VERY LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
REMOVED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BOTH JKL AND
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ARE SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF EXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ALL
OTHER WEATHER VARIABLES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...SO OPTED TO KEEP WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES IN THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS
WELL. THAT BEING SAID...LOOKING AT MODEL PARAMETERS...DYNAMICS SEEM TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KY...AND HI RES MODEL /HRRR/ PRECIP
SHOWS A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. TRIED TO
REFLECT THIS IDEA WITHIN THE POPS AND WX...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING.
BUT WITH VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS
WARRANTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX WHICH HAD BEEN NEAR MADISONVILLE KY AT
1230 PM HAS PULLED NORTHEAST AND IS NOW NEAR LOUISVILLE. STRONGEST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND NOW PULLING
INTO SOUTHWEST OH. CONVECTION TRAILS SOUTH TO WEST OF LAKE CUMBERLAND
ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION NNE
IT HAS ONLY BEEN VERY SLOWLY NEARING THE SW PART OF FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM THIS COULD STILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WEST PART OF FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN TRYING TO BRING CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE 17Z
RUN TRYING TO MOVE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AFTER 22Z...AND THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. WITH THE MCV MOVING AWAY AND WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING DO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION IN OUR AREA TO DECREASE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND WILL DROP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD TRIGGER MORE
CONVECTION OVER MO TONIGHT...WITH THE EFFECTS OF THIS REMAINING TO
OUR WEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR WEST POSSIBLY SERVING AS
TRIGGER FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE SOME OF THE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A QUICKER SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS IDEA WITH LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
AREA WIDE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ABOUT READY TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH SUPPORT FROM AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...AND A RIBBON OF HIGHER DEW POINTS OFF THE GULF ALONG
THE FRONT BEING ADVECTED ALONG BY A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF
THE SURFACE. ALL THIS CONSIDERED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ONGOING
CONVECTIVE EVENT...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
THIS IN THE SE PART OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...THERE COULD
ALSO BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
THIS IN THE SE WHERE FROPA WILL OCCUR LAST. THE LAST OF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD END SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES ON TO OUR SE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPLY NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR EARLY IN THE WEEK UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL PASS OVER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF DRY
WEATHER...BUT WITH WARMING ALREADY OCCURRING AND AN EVENTUAL
INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE.
AFTER THIS...MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME MORE
APPARENT LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CAROLINAS...BUT THIS FEATURE IS LACKING IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW HEADING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND INTO ONTARIO...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING TROUGH. THE 00Z
ECMWF DOES NOT ALLOW AS MUCH OF A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH
DUE TO ITS CAROLINA RIDGE. THE RESULT IS THAT THE GFS DEVELOPS
CONVECTION OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ON. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP ONLY ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH SCOOTS BY TO
OUR NORTH. THE GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND PREFER TO WEIGHT THE FORECAST TOWARD IT...WITH JUST A BIT
OF ECMWF INFLUENCE TO KNOCK THE POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHERE THEY
WOULD OTHERWISE BE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THIS FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. HOWEVER...NOT
PLANNING TO INCLUDE SPECIFICS ON TIMING AT THIS TIME AS CONVECTION IS
STILL WELL UPSTREAM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY AND VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0110L: BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS XTRM NRN MAINE ATTM W/
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER CONTG ACROSS OUR NRN ZNS 1/2 ATTM. REST OF
THE FA RATHER QUIET THO THERE IS AN ISOLD TSTM CURRENTLY TRACKING
EWRD ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS JUST S OF KMLT ATTM. ADJUSTED POPS TO
BETTER FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS AND HAVE XTND MENTION OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE N THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO MADE A SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HRLY TEMPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT CONDS. FLS
ACROSS NWRN MAINE WILL CONT FOR NOW THO FFMP AND RADAR TRENDS
SHOW MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS SHIFTED JUST NNE OF THIS AREA...
1045 PM UPDATE: BASED ON FOG BEING REPORTED AT KFVE AIRPORT...WE
WENT AHEAD AND PLACED PATCHY FOG IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE FA
HAVEN RECEIVED CONVECTIVE RNFL FROM THE MCS THAT CROSSED THE REGION
EARLIER THIS EVE. THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM LAST UPDATE.
845 PM UPDATE: MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED ACROSS OUR FA...SO WE DROPPED THE ENHANCED TSTM WORDING
AND KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS IN FCST TIL ABOUT MDNGT. AN AREA OF MORE
STRATIFORM RNFL BEHIND WHATS LEFT THE LEADING CONVECTION IS STILL
CONTG OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA THIS EVE...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY LATE TNGT. ONLY OTHER CHG WAS TO LOWER
OVRNGT LOWS ACROSS THE N POSTED AT 5 AM SAT DUE TO 8 PM OBS ALREADY
CLOSE TO PRIOR LOWS DUE TO RN COOLED AIR. WITH MID CLD CVR XPCTD
TO CONT SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WE DID NOT INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FOR
LATE TNGT OVR AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RNFL THIS EVE...BUT THIS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF BREAKS IN THE MID CLD CVR OCCUR AFT MDNGT.
515 PM UPDATE: WE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR NRN ME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LN OF TSTMS MOVG IN FROM QB.
ENHANCED WORDING FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WERE INCLUDED TIL 11 PM...AT WHICH POINT...THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THAT MOST OF THE STRONG TSTM ELEMENTS WILL HAVE MOVED SE INTO NB.
ALSO UPDATED QPF FOR THE 18-24Z AND 00-06Z TM FRAMES TNGT TO
INCREASE TO CVR CONVECTIVE RNFL RATES WITH THIS LN. 1-3 HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ONLY ABOUT 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF NRN ME...SO
WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE LCLZD FLOODING AS WELL.
ORGNL DISC: A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF QUEBEC
INTO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS EVENING AND BRING THE THREAT OF
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND FAST STORM MOTIONS...SOME BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS CONVECTION ENTERS THE NORTHERN END
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. DOWNED TREES WERE ALREADY REPORTED WITH A
WEAKER THUNDERSTORM IN FORT KENT THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER STORMS MAY
ALLOW FOR UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL BRIEFLY. WITH PWATS OVER ONE AND
HALF INCH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED. THESE STORMS COULD REACH
40K FT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE RESTRICTED PRIMARILY
TO ZONES ONE AND TWO IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WITH STORMS WEAKENING
BY THE TIME THEY REACH HOULTON LATER THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR DOWN EAST AND AROUND BANGOR. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW 60S TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL IN NORTHERN MAINE WITH CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA SAT EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE H20 IS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR JUNE 1ST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND DURING THE EVENING GUSTY WIND AND
SMALL HAIL. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDER
OF MAINE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE SUN PM...AND MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER/PRE-EXISTING SHOWERS THAT COULD LIMIT JUST
HOW UNSTABLE IT BECOMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DO
INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE HIGH PWATS ALSO MEAN THAT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE CONCERNS TOO...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS. THE
ENHANCED WORDING THAT THE MIDNIGHT CREW HAD IN LOOKS REAL GOOD AND
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR SUN
PM/EVE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON AND MAY ONLY BE ON A HOULTON-BANGOR LINE
BY MON EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH SOME
DRYING TO BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL AGAIN MENTION
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER LANGUAGE AS IT IS IN DAY
THREE. THE SPC DOES HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY
3.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY AND MID PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SE
OF JAMES BAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. A
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGED INTO THE COAST...A SECOND HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SE OUT OF WRN CANADA. BY THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE SRN PORTION HOWEVER WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG COAST VA WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT. BY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...AND HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MAINE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MRNG. FRI
MRNG A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH ITS SUPPORTING UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. THE
GFS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST INTO WRN MAINE. THE ECMWF FRI
MRNG MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH NO APPARENT WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY FRI EVENING THE ECMWF SYSTEM BECOMES
A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WITH ITS UPPER LOW MOVING TO SW JAMES BAY.
BY SAT MRNG BOTH MODELS MOVE THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
INTO MAINE.
STARTED WITH A BASE OF GMOS...OVER LAID A BLEND OF OFFICIAL/ALL
MODEL BLEND FOR WNDS/POPS/SKY/MAX/MIN. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT TO WINDS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE TOWARDS CAR...PQI AND FVE THIS
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE FRONT WILL STALL
AND COULD PRODUCE IFR VIS AND CIGS FROM PQI NORTHWARD INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM: VFR MUCH OF THE TIME SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT FROM KHUL NORTH IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY NEAR CONVECTION SUN PM AND AGAIN MONDAY. STRONG AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ON
THE WATERS. OTHERWISE...STABLE CONDITIONS MEAN LIGHT WINDS AND A
SOUTH SWELL AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET.
SHORT TERM: A SW WIND WILL PICK UP OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SUN PM AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE
SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY WITH A SOUTH SWELL AND A COMBINED SEA/SWELL OF 8-10 FEET
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW/CB
MARINE...KHW/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1003 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. THESE ARE
BEING CAUSED BY AN UPPER PV MAX OVER WV THAT IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE EAST. THIS EVOLUTION OF
THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BEST DEPICTED ON THE HRRR MODEL
BASED REFLECTIVITY WHICH HAS DONE A DECENT JOB IN PICKING THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS SO FAR THIS EVENING. WITH REPEATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS THAT SEE 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY MORNING. WITH THE PAST WEEK OF DRY
WEATHER ONLY EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CAT POPS MONDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTRN. ALTHOUGH JUST
ABT ANY PLACE CAN SEE A TSTRM...BEST SPRT WITH HIGHEST INSTAB WILL
BE ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC. LCLLY HVY RAINFALL CONTS. CDFRNT APPRCHS
FROM THE N LATE...BUT WRM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS AHEAD THE THE
BNDRY. HIGHS 75-80.
GIVEN THE HOT / DRY CNDTNS PAST FEW DAYS AND CONVECTIVE TYPE PCPN...
ANY WDSPRD FLOODING NOT XPCTD SO NO FLOOD HEADLINES. SPS`S OR FLS`S
MAY BE NEEDED IF CONVECTION DVLPS OVR THE SAME AREA. WHAT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED ARE THE RIVER LVLS OVR THE NXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE
RUNOFF. WITH A QPF BTWN 1-2 INCHES...SOME DECENT RISES IN LCL RIVERS
ARE LIKELY...BUT NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED ATTM.
LAST IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S MOVES NE ALLOWING CDFRNT TO SAG S ACROSS
FA MON NITE. WND SHFT TO THE NW ALLOWS DRYER AIR TO FILTER IN. PCPN
TAPERS OFF ACROSS NWRN HALF OF FA AFTR MIDNITE BUT LINGERS THRU THE
NITE OVR THE SE. LOWS U50S NRN MOST CNTYS TO M60S SERN AREAS.
MODELS SHOW ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS SERN AREA TUE
MORN. OTW...HIGH PRS TO THE NW RESULTS IN DCRG CLDNS WITH LWR DP TMPS.
HIGHS M-U70S CSTL AREAS.
HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE NITE AND ERLY WED. SOME INCRS IN
CLDNS WED AFTRN AS HIGH LVL MSTR INCRS FROM THE S. LOWS TUE NITE IN
THE 50S. HIGHS WED U70S-L80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WX ACRS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU
MORNG. THEN...THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST EASTERLY THRU SOUTHERLY
FLO...ALNG WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LO PRES AND AN ASSOC
FRNTL BNDRY FM THE W...WILL RESULT IN THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FM LATE THU THRU SAT NGT. SLGT OR SML CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY
LINGER ON SUN...ESPLY OVR SRN HALF OF THE REGION...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LAYING ACRS THE CAROLINAS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S THU MORNG...THEN RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI...SAT AND SUN
MORNGS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S THU...AND IN THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S FRI...SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG S-SW FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. A BROAD AREA OF
RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ALSO MOVG ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE RIC REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES AND VIS PRESENTLY VFR AT 00Z BUT
EXPECT TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH THE RAIN/TSTMS THRU 02/03Z.
MODELS THEN INDICATE MORE RAIN AND PSBL TSTMS THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR CIGS AND VIS TO BE PREDOMINATELY 2-3 MILES WITH OCNL IFR
CONDS WITH HVY PRECIP. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON AND OFF
THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A SLOW COLD FRONT TRANSITS THE REGION.
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM NW TO SE ON TUE (SOME SHRA/LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY TUE AT KORF/KECG AND N/NE WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT AT THESE SITES ON TUE AS WELL). DRY/VFR
TUE NIGHT- THU IN LIGHTER E/NE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA`S THE TWO NRN CSTL WTRS (THRU MON MORNG)...DUE
TO S WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WELL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE MON
INTO TUE MORNG. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE AT 10 TO 20 KT AND
POSSIBLY GUSTY...AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE NW. THIS COULD RESULT
IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE BAY...AND PERHAPS THE
RIVERS AND CSTL WTRS. NE OR E WINDS TUE NGT WILL SHIFT TO THE SE
OR S BY FRI...SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...TMG/JEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
300 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CRNT FCST ON TRACK AS STRNG RIDGE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. HIGH RES
MODELS DVLP CONVECTION OVR MTS AFTR 18Z. HOWEVER...DATA SPRTS THIS
CONVECTION WEAKENING AND OR DSPTG B4 GETTING INTO AKQ CNTYS. THIS
SPRTD BY THE CAP ON 12Z SNDGS. RUC ACTUALLY INDCTG SOME MSTR DVLPNG
ACROSS SERN VA / NE NC ARND 21Z DUE TO MERGING SEA BREEZE BNDRYS.
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AS DAY WEARS ON...BUT FOR NOW KEPT A DRY
FCST THIS AFTRN AND EVE. POP CAPPED AT 14%. HIGH TMPS U80S-L90S
XCPT COOLER AT THE BEACHES.
M CLR TO PT CLDY TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE U60S TO ARND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND EVEN
STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY. THE EURO IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.
PCPN WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TSTMS OVER
FAR WRN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTN. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ...A RESULT OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE DIVERGENCE WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH. PCPN BECOMES LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PSBL. FAR SE PORTIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS ALL BUT FAR SE PORTIONS DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AS THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DID NOT
WANT TO GO CATEGORICAL POPS AS MOS POPS ARE GENERALLY FROM 50 TO
60 PERCENT.
AN UPR LEVEL SPEED MAX TO THE NORTH AND POCKETS OF INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PCPN WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE FRONT BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED AND MOVES OFFSHORE. THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
IN THE SE VA AND NE NC WHERE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MIDDAY. THE
NAM KEEPS PCPN IN THE AREA LONGER BUT THIS IS IN THE OUTER RANGE
OF THAT MODEL WHICH IS GENERALLY LESS RELIABLE THAN EARLIER
PORTIONS OF THE MODEL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACCORDING TO THE NAM INCREASES TO BETWEEN 1.7 AND
2.0 INCHES ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD SOAKING. WPC QPF
FORECASTS HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL FOR THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE PCPN EVENT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE BLENDED
THEIR FORECAST INTO OURS WHICH RESULT IN THREE QUARTERS TO ONE AND
A HALF INCHES TOTAL PCPN ACROSS THE CWA. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED
TO BUMP THE QPF HIGHER.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. WITH PCPN AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RUN FROM NEAR 80 TO THE MIDDLE 80S. MAXIMUM READINGS ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 70S WITH NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR
60S...LOWERING TO AROUND 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE GRT LKS EWRD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AFTN INTO
THU MORNG...THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST FOR THU AFTN THRU
FRI. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPS/HUMIDITY AT LEAST FOR TUE INTO THU. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND IN THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S FRI MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S
WED AND THU...AND IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG S-SW FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHRAS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING FAR WEST NEAR LEE OF THE MNTS...BUT NO WX EXPECTED FOR
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN
GRADIENT WINDS ON SUNDAY SO EXPECT SFC WINDS TO BE MORE
GUSTY...MAYBE 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT SKEW-T AND LACK OF 925 MB MOISTURE GIVES ME LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING SO DECIDED NOT TO INDICATE STRATUS IN
THE TAFS. EXPECT CONT VFR CONDS THRU THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND BECOME LIKELY
ON MONDAY. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM NW TO SE ON TUE (SOME
SHRA/LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY TUE AT KORF/KECG).
DRY/VFR TUE NIGHT-WED IN NE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL NOT HAVE ANY HEADLINES ON THIS FCST ISSUANCE...BUT MAY NEED
SCA`S FOR SEAS ON THE THREE NRN CSTL ZNS LATER ON FOR TONIGHT INTO
MON...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH EXPECT ANY GUSTS TO 20 KT TO BE BRIEF/NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA HEADLINES IN THE BAY). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO AT LEAST MON
MORNG...WITH S/SW WINDS AVERAGING 10 KT TODAY...15 KT
TONIGHT/SUNDAY (15 TO 20 KT ON THE COAST TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT). A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST MON THRU TUE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THEN NNE AVERAGING AROUND 15 KT (BUT
WILL PROBABLY SEE A BRIEF SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS AND AS TIMING
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN MAY SEE LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW EARLY TUE OR AGAIN TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CRNT FCST ON TRACK AS STRNG RIDGE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. HIGH RES
MODELS DVLP CONVECTION OVR MTS AFTR 18Z. HOWEVER...DATA SPRTS THIS
CONVECTION WEAKENING AND OR DSPTG B4 GETTING INTO AKQ CNTYS. THIS
SPRTD BY THE CAP ON 12Z SNDGS. RUC ACTUALLY INDCTG SOME MSTR DVLPNG
ACROSS SERN VA / NE NC ARND 21Z DUE TO MERGING SEA BREEZE BNDRYS.
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AS DAY WEARS ON...BUT FOR NOW KEPT A DRY
FCST THIS AFTRN AND EVE. POP CAPPED AT 14%. HIGH TMPS U80S-L90S
XCPT COOLER AT THE BEACHES.
M CLR TO PT CLDY TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE U60S TO ARND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND EVEN
STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY. THE EURO IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.
PCPN WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TSTMS OVER
FAR WRN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTN. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ...A RESULT OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE DIVERGENCE WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH. PCPN BECOMES LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PSBL. FAR SE PORTIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS ALL BUT FAR SE PORTIONS DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AS THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DID NOT
WANT TO GO CATEGORICAL POPS AS MOS POPS ARE GENERALLY FROM 50 TO
60 PERCENT.
AN UPR LEVEL SPEED MAX TO THE NORTH AND POCKETS OF INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PCPN WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE FRONT BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED AND MOVES OFFSHORE. THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
IN THE SE VA AND NE NC WHERE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MIDDAY. THE
NAM KEEPS PCPN IN THE AREA LONGER BUT THIS IS IN THE OUTER RANGE
OF THAT MODEL WHICH IS GENERALLY LESS RELIABLE THAN EARLIER
PORTIONS OF THE MODEL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACCORDING TO THE NAM INCREASES TO BETWEEN 1.7 AND
2.0 INCHES ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD SOAKING. WPC QPF
FORECASTS HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL FOR THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE PCPN EVENT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE BLENDED
THEIR FORECAST INTO OURS WHICH RESULT IN THREE QUARTERS TO ONE AND
A HALF INCHES TOTAL PCPN ACROSS THE CWA. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED
TO BUMP THE QPF HIGHER.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. WITH PCPN AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RUN FROM NEAR 80 TO THE MIDDLE 80S. MAXIMUM READINGS ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPR 70S WITH NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR
60S...LOWERING TO AROUND 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE GRT LKS EWRD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AFTN INTO
THU MORNG...THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST FOR THU AFTN THRU
FRI. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPS/HUMIDITY AT LEAST FOR TUE INTO THU. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND IN THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S FRI MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S
WED AND THU...AND IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO BRING A WARM S-SW FLOW OVER
THE REGION. DECIDED TO DROP FOG AT TAF SITES AS TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS
ARE GENLY 5-10 F OR GREATER...AND WINDS ARE STILL GENLY 5-10 KT.
MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED AFTN CU ONCE AGAIN.
S/SW WINDS AVG 10-15 KT.
OUTLOOK...WHILE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE WARM SW FLOW REGIME AND
WINDS STAYING 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A LIMITED
POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG (MORE LIKELY TO BE LOW CLOUDS). IT DOES
APPEAR THAT GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO BACK OFF ON THE LOW CLOUD
SCENARIO AS WELL SO FOR THE MOST PART WOULD ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND ANY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE BRIEF. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND BECOME LIKELY
ON MONDAY. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM NW TO SE ON TUE (SOME
SHRA/LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY TUE AT KORF/KECG).
DRY/VFR TUE NIGHT-WED IN NE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL NOT HAVE ANY HEADLINES ON THIS FCST ISSUANCE...BUT MAY NEED
SCA`S FOR SEAS ON THE THREE NRN CSTL ZNS LATER ON FOR TONIGHT INTO
MON...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH EXPECT ANY GUSTS TO 20 KT TO BE BRIEF/NOT
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR SCA HEADLINES IN THE BAY). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO AT LEAST MON
MORNG...WITH S/SW WINDS AVERAGING 10 KT TODAY...15 KT
TONIGHT/SUNDAY (15 TO 20 KT ON THE COAST TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT). A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST MON THRU TUE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THEN NNE AVERAGING AROUND 15 KT (BUT
WILL PROBABLY SEE A BRIEF SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS AND AS TIMING
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN MAY SEE LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW EARLY TUE OR AGAIN TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB/MAS
MARINE...LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
103 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM MINNESOTA...CROSSING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. A COUPLE OF
FROSTY MORNINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
SPOTTY SHOWER WITH PERHAPS SOME THUNDER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DWINDLING
OVERALL. SFC DEWPOINTS STILL RUNNING ON THE HIGHER SIDE. BUT NO
MATTER AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPS AND RESULTING
INSTABILITY WAY IN CHECK. NO SIGNS OF THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ANYWAY. THUS STILL BELIEVE THAT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SAVE FOR SOME
ISOLATED STUFF.
LOOKING TO THE WEST...SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT FROM WISCONSIN
DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST. THIN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS JUST STARTING
TO GO ACROSS THAT AREA DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACHING
SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER THAT WILL ULTIMATELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME
ON WHAT IS SURELY A BUSY OUTDOOR WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
NOW ROLLING UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. CONVECTION WAS THE
RESULT OF COMPACT MCV (RADAR REFLECTIVITY PATTERN REVEALS THE
SPIN) THAT BROKE AWAY FROM LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION IN THE
MIDWEST AND PUSHED UP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL
A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS TRAILING THE MCV ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN...TOUGH FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCV ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER CONTINUES TO
POP UP ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DESPITE LOWER VALUES
OF INSTABILITY...EVIDENCE OF THE UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT STILL IN
PLACE. QUESTION IS...WILL ONGOING ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO GROW
UPSCALE AS WE SLOWLY HEAT UP. NAM AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
REVEAL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WITH BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND LITTLE TO NO CINH. BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING WILL ULTIMATELY TAP DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS BACK INTO 50S TO LOWER 60S. SO...GUT FEELING IS
WE CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY GETS SQUASHED. WILL GO THAT ROUTE
FOR NOW AND JUST SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
GRIDS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR WELL-DEFINED BAND OF CONVECTION
LIFTING ACROSS NW/N CENTRAL LOWER MI. APX DOPPLER SHOWED SOME
HIGHLY LOCALIZED 50KT INBOUNDS 15-20SM SW OF THE RADAR AS THE
STORMS APPROACHED...BUT NO SURPRISE (GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER) THAT THOSE WINDS ARE NOT GETTING TO THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT THAT RUNS N ILLINOIS
THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN, INTO E UPPER, AND THEN INTO ONTARIO NORTH OF
ANJ. THE SHOWERS (MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM, ALTHOUGH NO CG STRIKES WERE
OBSERVED) HAVE BEEN MOVING WITH THAT BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, WHICH ARE
JOINING UP WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THAT WERE OVER W UPPER LAST EVENING. WITH THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND
OUT OF THE SSW, AND THE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE RIDING ALONG THOSE WIND
STREAMLINES, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BREAK THIS MORNING IN N
LOWER, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN E UPPER.
TODAY...THIS IS STILL A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST, SINCE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER THE BREAK THAT I ALLUDED TO WILL LAST
AS LONG AS WILL BE STATED. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
THE LATEST MODELS, HERE`S WHAT LOOKS LIKE SHOULD HAPPEN. THE FIRST
THING THAT WILL BLOCK MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN OUR AREA IS THE
ONGOING CONVECTION DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO/MICHIGAN
BORDER. AS IT PROGRESSES EAST, THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TRANSPORT
WILL BE CUT OFF TO ALLOW ANYTHING TO GET GOING IN NW LOWER AND E
UPPER. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKE
THEY MAY TRY TO SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE THETA-E BOUNDARY INTO NE LOWER
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, TO THE WEST, THERE IS A PRETTY HEFTY AREA
OF DRIER AIR WITH THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S(IN WISCONSIN), AND
RUNNING THE HYSPLIT MODEL BACKWARDS TO SEE WHERE THE AIR MASS IS
ORIGINATING FROM SHOWS A MIXTURE OF LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS FROM
SW LOWER(SURFACE AIR), AND LOWER DEWPOINTS (MID 40S) FROM SW IOWA
(1000 METER AGL AIR). THIS WOULD AGREE WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF IDEA
OF A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE REGION AND PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN E UPPER AND NW LOWER, AND AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES EAST, THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST AND PUSH THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL EAST, AS WELL. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, MOST OF N LOWER WILL
BE IN THE DRIER AIR WITH THE THUNDER POTENTIAL WORKING ITS WAY BACK
INTO E UPPER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW PROVIDES SOME FORCING IN
THE INITIALLY WARM AIR MASS.
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST, THE COOLER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS FROM THE 500 MB
TROUGH (AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT) TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THIS IS AT NIGHT (NO SFC INSTABILITY), AND THE
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6 C/KM, THINK THAT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL GOES TO ZERO WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR.
THIS CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND SPREADS TO THE SE COUNTIES BY 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
OUR WX QUICKLY TURNS MUCH QUIETER...BUT MUCH COOLER...TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEKEND. PRIMARY TROF EXTENDING FROM 500MB LOW NORTH OF SUPERIOR
WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL QUICKLY EJECT TO
THE EAST...EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT TOWARD SUPERIOR/S NORTH
SHORE. THIS LOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMES
BAY MONDAY MORNING. 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GET PUMPED UP INTO
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES AT THE START OF THE
DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS MIN TEMPS AND ANY EARLY JUNE
FROST POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI
AT 12Z SUNDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING SOON THEREAFTER...
BUT NOT QUITE IMMEDIATELY. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE NAM (AS IT
LIKES TO DO) IS OVERDOING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT UP TIL 18Z.
BUT GIVEN THE 500MB TROF AXIS IS ONLY ALONG A NEWBERRY-TVC AXIS AT
DAYBREAK...WOULD CERTAINLY STILL MAKE SENSE FOR SOME EARLY AM SHRA
TO LINGER. WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. SHARPLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE PM...WITH
850-700MB RH LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT. WILL REMOVE PM POPS. THAT
DRIER AIR WILL SERIOUSLY ERODE LINGERING COLD-AIR STRATOCU...
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS TUMBLE TO
AROUND 1C BY EVENING...WHICH WILL PUT THE KIBOSH ON TEMPS GOING MUCH
OF ANYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS. THE NE LOWER COAST SHOULD STILL SHOOT
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S TO START THE DAY...ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S.
SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE TUCKED JUST NORTH OF THE SAULT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BUT THE NAM/GFS AGREE THAT IT NEVER QUITE PINWHEELS DOWN
INTO EASTERN UPPER. SUPERIOR IS OF COURSE STILL VERY CHILLY (EASTERN
BUOY WATER TEMP IS 38F)...SO 850MB TEMPS NOSING DOWN PERHAPS AS LOW
AS -2C WILL NOT PROMPT A LAKE RESPONSE. SO CAN KEEP THESE PERIODS
DRY. EASTERN UPPER WILL GET GRAZED BY LOW/MID CLOUDS SWIRLING AROUND
THE PASSING LOW...NORTHERN LOWER WILL SEE LITTLE CLOUD COVER DURING
THESE PERIODS.
DOUBT THAT EASTERN UPPER AND THE NE LOWER MI COAST WILL DECOUPLE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT THERE.
THE BULK OF NORTHERN LOWER LIKELY WILL...AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPSTREAM SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FROM IOWA TOWARD CHICAGO. A LITTLE BIT
OF CLOUD COVER AND BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP EASTERN UPPER MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. NORTHERN LOWER WILL VARY MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY...NEAR 40F ALONG SOME COASTS BUT DIPPING DEEP INTO THE
30S IN INTERIOR COLD SPOTS (DEFINITELY THE AU SABLE VALLEY). WILL
FINE-TUNE FROST COVERAGE IN THE GRIDDED FORECASTS. BUT SUFFICE TO
SAY THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING THAT FROST IN THE USUAL
INTERIOR COOL SPOTS (WHICH...FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...ISN/T THE LEAST
BIT UNUSUAL FOR THE 1ST WEEK OF JUNE).
NOT A LOT OF MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS FOR MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS STILL
RANGING FROM NEAR 0C IN EASTERN UPPER TO 2C IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT
MIDDAY. BUT LOTS OF SUNSHINE (ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN LOWER) WILL
HELP. MAX TEMPS UPPER 50S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...ANOTHER CHILLY/POTENTIALLY FROSTY NIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN ABOUT THE SAME BALLPARK AS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE
FORECAST...AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROFS MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES KEEP SUMMER TEMPS AT BAY. QUIET WX WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. SMALLISH RAIN
CHANCES WILL LAST THRU THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE NEXT UPPER
TROF SLOWLY TRANSITS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
MVFR CIGS DOMINATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...WITH NO
SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT AT THIS POINT. CIGS MAY TEND TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEATING PROCEEDS. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE. EXPECT CIGS TO DIP BELOW 1K
FEET OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR SLICES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERY
PRECIP PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING/BIG
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AS THE SFC GRADIENT
NEVER QUITE TIGHTENS UP ENOUGH TO GET ANY WIND GOING. THE SFC LOW
MOVES IN TONIGHT, WHICH KEEPS THE GRADIENT SLACK. BY SUNDAY, THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP, BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BLOW SMALL
CRITERIA, UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
MORE, AND SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LAST INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...JL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1034 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM MINNESOTA...CROSSING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. A COUPLE OF
FROSTY MORNINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME
ON WHAT IS SURELY A BUSY OUTDOOR WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
NOW ROLLING UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. CONVECTION WAS THE
RESULT OF COMPACT MCV (RADAR REFLECTIVITY PATTERN REVEALS THE
SPIN) THAT BROKE AWAY FROM LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION IN THE
MIDWEST AND PUSHED UP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL
A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS TRAILING THE MCV ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN...TOUGH FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCV ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER CONTINUES TO
POP UP ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DESPITE LOWER VALUES
OF INSTABILITY...EVIDENCE OF THE UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT STILL IN
PLACE. QUESTION IS...WILL ONGOING ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO GROW
UPSCALE AS WE SLOWLY HEAT UP. NAM AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
REVEAL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WITH BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND LITTLE TO NO CINH. BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING WILL ULTIMATELY TAP DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS BACK INTO 50S TO LOWER 60S. SO...GUT FEELING IS
WE CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY GETS SQUASHED. WILL GO THAT ROUTE
FOR NOW AND JUST SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
GRIDS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR WELL-DEFINED BAND OF CONVECTION
LIFTING ACROSS NW/N CENTRAL LOWER MI. APX DOPPLER SHOWED SOME
HIGHLY LOCALIZED 50KT INBOUNDS 15-20SM SW OF THE RADAR AS THE
STORMS APPROACHED...BUT NO SURPRISE (GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER) THAT THOSE WINDS ARE NOT GETTING TO THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 850 MB THETA-E GRADIENT THAT RUNS N ILLINOIS
THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN, INTO E UPPER, AND THEN INTO ONTARIO NORTH OF
ANJ. THE SHOWERS (MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM, ALTHOUGH NO CG STRIKES WERE
OBSERVED) HAVE BEEN MOVING WITH THAT BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, WHICH ARE
JOINING UP WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THAT WERE OVER W UPPER LAST EVENING. WITH THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND
OUT OF THE SSW, AND THE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE RIDING ALONG THOSE WIND
STREAMLINES, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BREAK THIS MORNING IN N
LOWER, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN E UPPER.
TODAY...THIS IS STILL A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST, SINCE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER THE BREAK THAT I ALLUDED TO WILL LAST
AS LONG AS WILL BE STATED. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
THE LATEST MODELS, HERE`S WHAT LOOKS LIKE SHOULD HAPPEN. THE FIRST
THING THAT WILL BLOCK MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN OUR AREA IS THE
ONGOING CONVECTION DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO/MICHIGAN
BORDER. AS IT PROGRESSES EAST, THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TRANSPORT
WILL BE CUT OFF TO ALLOW ANYTHING TO GET GOING IN NW LOWER AND E
UPPER. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKE
THEY MAY TRY TO SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE THETA-E BOUNDARY INTO NE LOWER
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, TO THE WEST, THERE IS A PRETTY HEFTY AREA
OF DRIER AIR WITH THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S(IN WISCONSIN), AND
RUNNING THE HYSPLIT MODEL BACKWARDS TO SEE WHERE THE AIR MASS IS
ORIGINATING FROM SHOWS A MIXTURE OF LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS FROM
SW LOWER(SURFACE AIR), AND LOWER DEWPOINTS (MID 40S) FROM SW IOWA
(1000 METER AGL AIR). THIS WOULD AGREE WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF IDEA
OF A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE REGION AND PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN E UPPER AND NW LOWER, AND AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES EAST, THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST AND PUSH THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL EAST, AS WELL. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, MOST OF N LOWER WILL
BE IN THE DRIER AIR WITH THE THUNDER POTENTIAL WORKING ITS WAY BACK
INTO E UPPER AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW PROVIDES SOME FORCING IN
THE INITIALLY WARM AIR MASS.
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST, THE COOLER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS FROM THE 500 MB
TROUGH (AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT) TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THIS IS AT NIGHT (NO SFC INSTABILITY), AND THE
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6 C/KM, THINK THAT THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL GOES TO ZERO WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR.
THIS CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND SPREADS TO THE SE COUNTIES BY 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
OUR WX QUICKLY TURNS MUCH QUIETER...BUT MUCH COOLER...TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEKEND. PRIMARY TROF EXTENDING FROM 500MB LOW NORTH OF SUPERIOR
WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL QUICKLY EJECT TO
THE EAST...EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT TOWARD SUPERIOR/S NORTH
SHORE. THIS LOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMES
BAY MONDAY MORNING. 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GET PUMPED UP INTO
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES AT THE START OF THE
DAY SUNDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS MIN TEMPS AND ANY EARLY JUNE
FROST POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI
AT 12Z SUNDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING SOON THEREAFTER...
BUT NOT QUITE IMMEDIATELY. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE NAM (AS IT
LIKES TO DO) IS OVERDOING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT UP TIL 18Z.
BUT GIVEN THE 500MB TROF AXIS IS ONLY ALONG A NEWBERRY-TVC AXIS AT
DAYBREAK...WOULD CERTAINLY STILL MAKE SENSE FOR SOME EARLY AM SHRA
TO LINGER. WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. SHARPLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE PM...WITH
850-700MB RH LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT. WILL REMOVE PM POPS. THAT
DRIER AIR WILL SERIOUSLY ERODE LINGERING COLD-AIR STRATOCU...
ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS TUMBLE TO
AROUND 1C BY EVENING...WHICH WILL PUT THE KIBOSH ON TEMPS GOING MUCH
OF ANYWHERE IN THE PM HOURS. THE NE LOWER COAST SHOULD STILL SHOOT
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S TO START THE DAY...ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S.
SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE TUCKED JUST NORTH OF THE SAULT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BUT THE NAM/GFS AGREE THAT IT NEVER QUITE PINWHEELS DOWN
INTO EASTERN UPPER. SUPERIOR IS OF COURSE STILL VERY CHILLY (EASTERN
BUOY WATER TEMP IS 38F)...SO 850MB TEMPS NOSING DOWN PERHAPS AS LOW
AS -2C WILL NOT PROMPT A LAKE RESPONSE. SO CAN KEEP THESE PERIODS
DRY. EASTERN UPPER WILL GET GRAZED BY LOW/MID CLOUDS SWIRLING AROUND
THE PASSING LOW...NORTHERN LOWER WILL SEE LITTLE CLOUD COVER DURING
THESE PERIODS.
DOUBT THAT EASTERN UPPER AND THE NE LOWER MI COAST WILL DECOUPLE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT THERE.
THE BULK OF NORTHERN LOWER LIKELY WILL...AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPSTREAM SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FROM IOWA TOWARD CHICAGO. A LITTLE BIT
OF CLOUD COVER AND BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP EASTERN UPPER MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. NORTHERN LOWER WILL VARY MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY...NEAR 40F ALONG SOME COASTS BUT DIPPING DEEP INTO THE
30S IN INTERIOR COLD SPOTS (DEFINITELY THE AU SABLE VALLEY). WILL
FINE-TUNE FROST COVERAGE IN THE GRIDDED FORECASTS. BUT SUFFICE TO
SAY THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING THAT FROST IN THE USUAL
INTERIOR COOL SPOTS (WHICH...FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...ISN/T THE LEAST
BIT UNUSUAL FOR THE 1ST WEEK OF JUNE).
NOT A LOT OF MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS FOR MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS STILL
RANGING FROM NEAR 0C IN EASTERN UPPER TO 2C IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT
MIDDAY. BUT LOTS OF SUNSHINE (ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN LOWER) WILL
HELP. MAX TEMPS UPPER 50S EASTERN UPPER TO MID 60S IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...ANOTHER CHILLY/POTENTIALLY FROSTY NIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN ABOUT THE SAME BALLPARK AS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE
FORECAST...AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROFS MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES KEEP SUMMER TEMPS AT BAY. QUIET WX WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. SMALLISH RAIN
CHANCES WILL LAST THRU THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE NEXT UPPER
TROF SLOWLY TRANSITS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHRA AND MVFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN MN WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING NORTHERN MI
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH 1-3 HOURS OF CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS.
AFTER THAT...VFR...AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARRIVE WITH THE
LOW TONIGHT. HAVE PREVAILING SHRA AT ALL SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...AND MVFR CIGS ARRIVING VERY LATE AS COOLER AIR SPILLS BACK
IN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...VEERING NW LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AS THE SFC GRADIENT
NEVER QUITE TIGHTENS UP ENOUGH TO GET ANY WIND GOING. THE SFC LOW
MOVES IN TONIGHT, WHICH KEEPS THE GRADIENT SLACK. BY SUNDAY, THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP, BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BLOW SMALL
CRITERIA, UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
MORE, AND SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LAST INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1257 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT HAS AFFECTED OUR WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUES TO SPIN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES JUST OFF BOTH THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS. IN THE MID LEVELS...THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SURGE AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF COAST MOISTURE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST...AS SEEN IN RECENT
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY`S
MIDSECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALSO ALIGNED OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND A
SECONDARY LOW SITUATED SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN...ALMOST NEARLY
STATIONARY...THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY SHIFTED
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS A SECONDARY WEAK
TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY...CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
STARTING OFF THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AN AREA OF CUMULUS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...AND BEGUN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST AS SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE. RADAR ALSO INDICATES AT LEAST SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WENT AHEAD AND
PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM MODEL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS
WELL. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE SPRINKLES AND MAYBE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA JUST BEHIND THE SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS TROUGH
AXIS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA ROUGHLY AROUND 6Z...WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT...AS BOTH THE NAM AND
HRRR INDICATE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PUSH THROUGH. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY SATURDAY...THUS
DECREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...REMAINS
FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH ONLY ABOUT 100 J/KG OR SO AT MOST. CONTINUED
WITH MENTION OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A RESULT...AND LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...BEHIND THIS SECONDARY TROUGH
AXIS...COOLER AIR...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 4
DEGREES CELSIUS WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THUS...COMBINED WITH MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 70 IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING INTO A FAIRLY UNPLEASANT
DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TO ADD TO
THE MIX...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE 40S. BY
SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE SOUTH AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE ONE FROM THE
PAST WEEK. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SEND THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
BRING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEEK. THERE
ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES DURING THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SEND SHORT WAVES INTO THE AREA. IT WILL NOT BE RAINING
ALL OF THE TIME AND THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE SOME LOCATIONS DO NOT
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION DURING SOME PERIODS... BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
A SMALL CHANCE EVERY DAY. THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MUCAPE
APPROACHES 2500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE AT OTHER
TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AS STRATUS MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HEALTHY HEIGHT
RISES. EXPECT CIRRUS TO MOVE IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY
AND STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ANY SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
816 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
LINCOLN...CHAVES AND DE BACA COUNTIES.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...558 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN IMPACTS FOR AVIATION OCCURRING THRU THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN
NM AS CONVECTION SHIFTS ESE NEAR 25KTS. ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS MOSTLY DRY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
BLDU. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH SEVERE WATCH
272 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR AREA FROM SOCORRO NORTH AND EAST
THE HIGH PLAINS AND CHAVES COUNTY. LATEST HRRR AND RUC SOLUTIONS
SHOWS AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DELIVERING SOME HEAVY RAIN
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HAVE TIMED GREATEST CONFIDENCE WITH PREDOMINANT IMPACTS AT KTCC
AND KROW GENERALLY 02Z TO 06Z. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL COME MAINLY
FROM BLDU WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON WHAT HAPPENS LATER TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL NM...WITH THE GFS INDICATING RAIN/STORMS CONTINUING NEAR
HIGH TERRAIN...AND THE NAM DRYING IT OUT. HAVE SIDED ON THE DRIER
SIDE. MORE UPDATES POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING. GUYER
.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013...
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS PROPAGATING EWD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CUMULUS BUBBLING OVER THE MANZANOS LOOKS QUITE
HEALTHY AND THINGS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE SLOW TO INCREASE BUT MIDLAND TX SOUNDING
AND MODELS ALL POINT TO A SIGNIFICANT PWAT/MOISTURE INCREASE JUST
BELOW 700 MB. APPEARS THAT MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WERE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH WHERE THE INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION
WOULD GET GOING. EXPECT THAT THE LINE THAT IS DEVELOPING NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EWD...EXPANDING AS IT DOES SO. SHOULD GET AT
LEAST ISOLATED HAILERS WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AND INCREASING
MU CAPE VALUES FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST OUT ONTO THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS.
12Z AND 18Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE FOR STORMS TO
DIGEST OVERNIGHT OVER THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE SC MTNS COULD CONTINUE INTO
THE LATE- NIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTH THERE.
ONE DAY AND DONE SCENARIO...FOR THE MOST PART FOR WESTERN AREAS.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOMORROW...THE FARTHER EAST THE BETTER
AS VERY DRY AIR FROM AZ MAKES A RETURN EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM BY AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW
OVER THE ERN PLAINS TUESDAY...AND THE RESULTING BACK DOOR FRONT ON
THE BACK/WEST SIDE SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY
EVENING. NAM ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TRICKLE NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY. ADDED IN ISOLATED
HIGH BASED/DRY STORMS FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS A RESULT.
MODELS TRENDING BACK TO MORE ACTIVITY FOR THE EAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...KEEPING ELY SURFACE FLOW OVER NM. NW
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WED THRU FRI. CONVECTIVE
MCC`S OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND ERN NM EACH EVENING WILL LIKELY SEND
LOW LEVEL RAIN COOLED AIR SURGES WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE WEST- CENTRAL MTNS. LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
FROM A CONTINUED W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS. 33
.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...DRY LIGHTNING LIKELY FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
MONDAY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS...NORTHEAST PLAINS...AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE TO
LOCAL GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES ON FEATURE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING EMERGING FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS
BASIC CONFIGURATION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RIDGE CORE SHIFTING WESTWARD TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY
THURSDAY ALLOWING WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE
CORE AND CLIP THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TROUGH ALOFT BUILDING FROM CENTRAL COLORADO ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO TO THE MEXICO WEST COAST ON SATURDAY...AND JUST
WHAT THIS DOES ON SUNDAY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
EUROPEAN MODEL DIGS TROUGH DEEPLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MOVES
THIS RAPIDLY EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY...AS RIDGE CORE
BUILDS BACK IN OVER NEW MEXICO IN AN EASTWARD SLIDE. GFS MODEL KEEPS
THE TROUGH MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LEAVES NEW MEXICO UNDER A RIDGE
REGIME INTO MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TOUGH TO RECONCILE THE
STORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NOD TOWARD ECMWF CALL ON LESS
SETTLED WEATHER AND INTRODUCE SOME LOW GRADE SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
OUTER PERIODS PENDING BETTER CONSENSUS.
OVERNIGHT...MUCH IMPROVED OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...WITH GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES CENTRAL AND EAST...AND FAIR TO GOOD
CONDITIONS WEST. GUSTY AND SHIFTING THUNDERSTORM WINDS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL EASE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY DAYBREAK AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
FOR MONDAY...RIDGE REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH WINDS ALOFT
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE WILL TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PICK UP
WINDS SPEEDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TUGGED IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES JUST ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DESPITE THE GUSTS...AND LIMIT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TO AN HOUR OR TWO IN SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS...NORTHEAST PLAINS...AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL AND
EAST...WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE TEXAS BORDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES PEAKING OUT 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND
EAST...AND UP TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST. A DRYER
OVERNIGHT...WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES STATEWIDE EXCEPT FOR
BETTER RECOVERIES IN THE EXTREME EAST. NO VENTILATION PROBLEMS.
FOR TUESDAY...WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WITH RIDGE REMAINING IN
PLACE. SURFACE LOW SETTING UP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY WEAK MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
WEAK COOL PUSH WILL INVADE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PUSH WILL MAKE LITTLE WESTWARD PROGRESS...AND REMAIN
PRETTY MUCH OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS PCT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY MODEST WIND SPEEDS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES EAST...POOR TO FAIR CENTRAL...AND POOR IN THE WEST. NO
VENTILATION ISSUES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...COOLER PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO EARLY JUNE NORMALS...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE
SATE REMAINS 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MOSTLY NORTHEAST PLAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...AND SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT STARTING TO PICK UP SOUTHWEST SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING TROUGH DEEPENING FROM CENTRAL
UTAH TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND SURFACE LOW SHIFTING TO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FOR THE DAY...EASTERLY OVER THE
EAST AND WESTERLY OVER THE WEST WITH CONVERGENCE PROVIDING A LITTLE
EXTRA SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EAST AND NORTHEAST WILL BOOST MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO
THE 20S PCT OR BETTER...WITH SINGLE DIGITS STILL COMMON ELSEWHERE.
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST...WITH
FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES CENTRAL AND WEST.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDING IN OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE SATURDAY
MORNING WILL TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PUSH THROUGH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FOR A MUCH BREEZIER DAY. 30S
PCT MINIMUM RH OVER THE EAST THURSDAY FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S PCT SATURDAY...WHILE THE WEST REMAINS DRY. EASTERN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DECREASING IN
SATURDAY AS DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DEGRADED VENTILATION
EAST ON THURSDAY IMPROVING TO EXCELLENT STATEWIDE BY SATURDAY. SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN IMPACTS FOR AVIATION OCCURRING THRU THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN
NM AS CONVECTION SHIFTS ESE NEAR 25KTS. ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS MOSTLY DRY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
BLDU. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH SEVERE WATCH
272 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR AREA FROM SOCORRO NORTH AND EAST
THE HIGH PLAINS AND CHAVES COUNTY. LATEST HRRR AND RUC SOLUTIONS
SHOWS AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DELIVERING SOME HEAVY RAIN
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HAVE TIMED GREATEST CONFIDENCE WITH PREDOMINANT IMPACTS AT KTCC
AND KROW GENERALLY 02Z TO 06Z. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL COME MAINLY
FROM BLDU WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON WHAT HAPPENS LATER TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL NM...WITH THE GFS INDICATING RAIN/STORMS CONTINUING NEAR
HIGH TERRAIN...AND THE NAM DRYING IT OUT. HAVE SIDED ON THE DRIER
SIDE. MORE UPDATES POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING. GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013...
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS PROPAGATING EWD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CUMULUS BUBBLING OVER THE MANZANOS LOOKS QUITE
HEALTHY AND THINGS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE SLOW TO INCREASE BUT MIDLAND TX SOUNDING
AND MODELS ALL POINT TO A SIGNIFICANT PWAT/MOISTURE INCREASE JUST
BELOW 700 MB. APPEARS THAT MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WERE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH WHERE THE INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION
WOULD GET GOING. EXPECT THAT THE LINE THAT IS DEVELOPING NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EWD...EXPANDING AS IT DOES SO. SHOULD GET AT
LEAST ISOLATED HAILERS WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AND INCREASING
MU CAPE VALUES FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST OUT ONTO THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS.
12Z AND 18Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE FOR STORMS TO
DIGEST OVERNIGHT OVER THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE SC MTNS COULD CONTINUE INTO
THE LATE- NIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTH THERE.
ONE DAY AND DONE SCENARIO...FOR THE MOST PART FOR WESTERN AREAS.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOMORROW...THE FARTHER EAST THE BETTER
AS VERY DRY AIR FROM AZ MAKES A RETURN EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM BY AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW
OVER THE ERN PLAINS TUESDAY...AND THE RESULTING BACK DOOR FRONT ON
THE BACK/WEST SIDE SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY
EVENING. NAM ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TRICKLE NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY. ADDED IN ISOLATED
HIGH BASED/DRY STORMS FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS A RESULT.
MODELS TRENDING BACK TO MORE ACTIVITY FOR THE EAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...KEEPING ELY SURFACE FLOW OVER NM. NW
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WED THRU FRI. CONVECTIVE
MCC`S OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND ERN NM EACH EVENING WILL LIKELY SEND
LOW LEVEL RAIN COOLED AIR SURGES WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE WEST- CENTRAL MTNS. LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
FROM A CONTINUED W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS. 33
.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...DRY LIGHTNING LIKELY FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
MONDAY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS...NORTHEAST PLAINS...AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE TO
LOCAL GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES ON FEATURE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING EMERGING FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS
BASIC CONFIGURATION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RIDGE CORE SHIFTING WESTWARD TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY
THURSDAY ALLOWING WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE
CORE AND CLIP THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TROUGH ALOFT BUILDING FROM CENTRAL COLORADO ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO TO THE MEXICO WEST COAST ON SATURDAY...AND JUST
WHAT THIS DOES ON SUNDAY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
EUROPEAN MODEL DIGS TROUGH DEEPLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MOVES
THIS RAPIDLY EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY...AS RIDGE CORE
BUILDS BACK IN OVER NEW MEXICO IN AN EASTWARD SLIDE. GFS MODEL KEEPS
THE TROUGH MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LEAVES NEW MEXICO UNDER A RIDGE
REGIME INTO MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TOUGH TO RECONCILE THE
STORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NOD TOWARD ECMWF CALL ON LESS
SETTLED WEATHER AND INTRODUCE SOME LOW GRADE SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
OUTER PERIODS PENDING BETTER CONSENSUS.
OVERNIGHT...MUCH IMPROVED OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...WITH GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES CENTRAL AND EAST...AND FAIR TO GOOD
CONDITIONS WEST. GUSTY AND SHIFTING THUNDERSTORM WINDS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL EASE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY DAYBREAK AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
FOR MONDAY...RIDGE REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH WINDS ALOFT
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE WILL TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PICK UP
WINDS SPEEDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TUGGED IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES JUST ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DESPITE THE GUSTS...AND LIMIT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TO AN HOUR OR TWO IN SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS...NORTHEAST PLAINS...AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL AND
EAST...WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE TEXAS BORDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES PEAKING OUT 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND
EAST...AND UP TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST. A DRYER
OVERNIGHT...WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES STATEWIDE EXCEPT FOR
BETTER RECOVERIES IN THE EXTREME EAST. NO VENTILATION PROBLEMS.
FOR TUESDAY...WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WITH RIDGE REMAINING IN
PLACE. SURFACE LOW SETTING UP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY WEAK MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
WEAK COOL PUSH WILL INVADE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PUSH WILL MAKE LITTLE WESTWARD PROGRESS...AND REMAIN
PRETTY MUCH OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS PCT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY MODEST WIND SPEEDS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES EAST...POOR TO FAIR CENTRAL...AND POOR IN THE WEST. NO
VENTILATION ISSUES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...COOLER PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO EARLY JUNE NORMALS...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE
SATE REMAINS 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MOSTLY NORTHEAST PLAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...AND SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT STARTING TO PICK UP SOUTHWEST SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING TROUGH DEEPENING FROM CENTRAL
UTAH TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND SURFACE LOW SHIFTING TO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FOR THE DAY...EASTERLY OVER THE
EAST AND WESTERLY OVER THE WEST WITH CONVERGENCE PROVIDING A LITTLE
EXTRA SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EAST AND NORTHEAST WILL BOOST MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO
THE 20S PCT OR BETTER...WITH SINGLE DIGITS STILL COMMON ELSEWHERE.
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST...WITH
FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES CENTRAL AND WEST.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDING IN OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE SATURDAY
MORNING WILL TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PUSH THROUGH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FOR A MUCH BREEZIER DAY. 30S
PCT MINIMUM RH OVER THE EAST THURSDAY FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S PCT SATURDAY...WHILE THE WEST REMAINS DRY. EASTERN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DECREASING IN
SATURDAY AS DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DEGRADED VENTILATION
EAST ON THURSDAY IMPROVING TO EXCELLENT STATEWIDE BY SATURDAY. SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
730 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
TONIGHT. THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THIS ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...THESE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST BEFORE
FALLING APART TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...THE BRISK SW FLOW IS
SHADOWING THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER...EXTENDING
NE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND TO WATERTOWN. IN THESE AREAS...EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL JUST TO THE NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH...REACHING THE SOUTH
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO JUST SHY OF SUNSET. EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
WITH LAKE SHADOWING AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE
STILL IS A CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EARLY THIS
EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY
WILL BE DRY WITH ITS MAIN INFLUENCE BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW
AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
COOLER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
LONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. AFTER SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND GIVE WAY
TO QUITE A BIT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DESPITE THE SUN...THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL START THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S... EVEN SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND BLACK RIVER VALLEY.
THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY SHOW A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL
CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST
MAY CLUTTER THE SKY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR THE LAKE PLAINS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...A BIT MORE MID CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH...ESSENTIALLY A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT...AND BRINGS AN
INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ROUGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY TO EAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AND SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AS A LOW LEVEL 40KT JETS
SETS UP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...INDICATING THE RISK OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...
LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS...READINGS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A
BROAD REGION OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE AND WARMER/HUMID AIR IN
PLACE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TO LOWER CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A
DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CLOSE TO...OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO EDGE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AT 00Z. THIS WILL
BRING THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY A
WIND SHIFT TO THE W-NW. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF MVFR CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY ERODE THESE CIGS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY TONIGHT. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ON LAND...WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN IN SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA ON MOST OF THE NEARSHORES AND RIVERS UNTIL LATE
EVENING. AFTER THIS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
613 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE REGION LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ATTENTION REMAINS ON A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH CAN BE
SEEN EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WIND
PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR...WITH 850 MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KTS. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO LINEAR BOWING
SEGMENTS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT BUT A TAD FASTER THAN THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. FOLLOWING THIS...EXPECT CONTINUED ACTIVE
WEATHER THROUGH SUNSET...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SAID...MOMENTUM COULD
ALLOW STRONG STORMS TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT
THIS POINT...WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES LATER TONIGHT...DUE TO A STRONGER
MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH THE HRRR ALSO LENDING SUPPORT THE OTHER
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS)...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER TROF GETS CLOSER. A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SOME
MEASURABLE QPF IN WESTERN SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...AND GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE THIS MAKES SENSE. LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
1.75 INCHES BY BOTH THE NAM/GFS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT...AS
WINDS/CLOUDS AND RAIN LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE NOTABLY COOLER..RANGING FROM THE 70S IN WESTERN
SECTIONS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF...WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AND WIND SHIFT LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY SPARK AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF AND THE FRONT ITSELF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
POSTFRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL
CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO 60 DEGREES
SUNDAY EVENING...TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CLEARING TREND WITH THE INFLUX OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND COOL PERIOD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
POPS NEAR ZERO AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT THE START OF THE WEEK AND NUDGE UP TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BRING A MIDWEEK WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE RETURN OF WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF HUMIDITY AND A FAIR
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH AT MID WEEK TO MORE
THEN AN INCH AND A HALF BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THUS WE CAN EXPECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS RISK WILL BE
GREATEST LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. THESE WILL PROBABLY
BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR/IFR AT TIMES.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ALONG AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WINDS AND WAVES APPROACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
514 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE REGION LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ATTENTION WILL REMAIN ON A BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE...ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN THE KEY
TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SW FLOW WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MIXED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD...WITH
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES LATER TONIGHT...DUE TO A STRONGER
MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH THE HRRR LENDING SUPPORT THE OTHER GUIDANCE
(NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS)...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROF GETS CLOSER. A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SOME MEASURABLE QPF
IN WESTERN SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURE THIS MAKES SENSE.
FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOW 850 MB WINDS INCREASING FROM 35 KTS TO
45 KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME VEERING WITH
HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN MODEST SHEAR...WHICH WILL AID ORGANIZATION OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS BEST EARLY ON...SINCE
WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX DOWN THE LATER IN THE EVENING IT GETS.
THIS CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING...WITH BOTH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IF LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP ANY LINEAR STRUCTURE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE AS STORMS
DEVELOP AND SPREAD TO INTERIOR SECTIONS WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WITH PWATS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES BY BOTH THE NAM/GFS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT...AS
WINDS/CLOUDS AND RAIN LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE NOTABLY COOLER..RANGING FROM THE 70S IN WESTERN
SECTIONS TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF...WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AND WIND SHIFT LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY SPARK AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF AND THE FRONT ITSELF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
POSTFRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL
CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO 60 DEGREES
SUNDAY EVENING...TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CLEARING TREND WITH THE INFLUX OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND COOL PERIOD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
POPS NEAR ZERO AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT THE START OF THE WEEK AND NUDGE UP TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BRING A MIDWEEK WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE RETURN OF WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF HUMIDITY AND A FAIR
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH AT MID WEEK TO MORE
THEN AN INCH AND A HALF BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THUS WE CAN EXPECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS RISK WILL BE
GREATEST LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. THESE WILL PROBABLY
BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR/IFR AT TIMES.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE PROMPTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET. THESE ARE
MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING...WITH WINDS LIKELY TO BE LESS
FURTHER OFFSHORE.
OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ALONG AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WINDS AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030-
042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
348 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT...CROSSING THE REGION LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD REMAIN
IN A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH IS
WAVE OF MOISTURE UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THROUGH 330 PM...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE. WHILE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST...EXPECT THAT THE BRISK SSW FLOW WILL MIX AND DOWNSLOPE ON THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST...IT MAY BE
ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE...THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE A FEW
STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. DESPITE THE SHORT
TIMEFRAME...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE
SUBTLE NATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTION...WITH FORECAST
PRIMARILY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS PROVIDING LIMITED INFORMATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES LATER TONIGHT...DUE TO A STRONGER
MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH THE HRRR LENDING SUPPORT THE OTHER GUIDANCE
(NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS)...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROF GETS CLOSER. A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SOME MEASURABLE QPF
IN WESTERN SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURE THIS MAKES SENSE.
FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOW 850 MB WINDS INCREASING FROM 35 KTS TO
45 KTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME VEERING WITH
HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN MODEST SHEAR...WHICH WILL AID ORGANIZATION OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS BEST EARLY ON...SINCE
WINDS ARE LESS LIKELY TO MIX DOWN THE LATER IN THE EVENING IT GETS.
THIS CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING...WITH BOTH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WITH PWATS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES BY BOTH THE NAM/GFS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE DURING THE PERIOD. THE
SSW FLOW HAS RESULTED IN MODEST DOWNSLOPING...WHICH CAUSED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF...WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AND WIND SHIFT LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY SPARK AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF AND THE FRONT ITSELF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
POSTFRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL
CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO 60 DEGREES
SUNDAY EVENING...TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CLEARING TREND WITH THE INFLUX OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND COOL PERIOD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
POPS NEAR ZERO AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT THE START OF THE WEEK AND NUDGE UP TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BRING A MIDWEEK WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE RETURN OF WARMTH WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF HUMIDITY AND A FAIR
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH AT MID WEEK TO MORE
THEN AN INCH AND A HALF BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THUS WE CAN EXPECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST
PART...ANY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MISS MOST TAF LOCATIONS. CHANGES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...AS A LINE OF
STEADIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE IN. THESE
WILL PROBABLY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER IN HEAVY
RAIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR/IFR AT TIMES.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE PROMPTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET. THESE ARE
MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING...WITH WINDS LIKELY TO BE LESS
FURTHER OFFSHORE.
OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ALONG AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WINDS AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030-
042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
303 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
820 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ALONG LAKE ERIE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WAVE. THE LATEST HRRR FORECASTS
SOME OF THE SWRN NY ACTIVITY TO BRUSH AGAINST OUR WESTERN FA
BORDERS BETWEEN 7Z-9Z. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE
WESTERN GRIDS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
420 PM UPDATE... ISOLD TSRA HAVE FIRED OVER OUR SERN ZNS LATE THIS
AFTN...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPR-LVL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIE OUT EARLY THIS EVE...AS FORCING WANES...AND THE AMS
STABILIZES DIURNALLY.
LTR TNT/TWDS DAYBREAK...THE REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL
TO OUR W ATTM ACRS SRN ONT/LK ERIE COULD APPROACH OUR FAR NRN/WRN
ZNS. IN GENERAL...THIS PCPN SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENED PHASE BY THAT
TIME...AS IT WILL HAVE WELL OUTRUN ITS MAIN UPR-LVL SUPPORT. WE
HAVE ISOLD-SCTD POPS ACRS THE FINGER LKS/MOHAWK VLY/SRN TUG HILL
ZNS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
DRY WX FORESEEN FROM THE TWIN TIERS SWD OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY
PATCHY FOG/HZ PSBL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE... ALTHOUGH WE`LL REMAIN UNDER A SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPR
RIDGE SAT...WE MAY SEE SOME HGT FALLS AFTER 18Z...SPCLY NRN/WRN
AREAS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A FAST MOVG UPR IMPULSE BRUSHING
UPSTATE NY...COULD SPARK SOME DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHRA/TSRA. THE
BEST CHC (SCTD VERBIAGE) SHOULD BE IN OUR NRN/WRN ZNS...WITH MORE
ISOLD COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
SAT NGT...REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD WANE DURG
THE EVE...LEADING TO A RELATIVE LULL FOR MOST OF THE NGT. TWDS SUN
AM...AS A MUCH BETTER DEFINED UPR-LVL TROUGH SWINGS TWDS SRN
ONT/LK ONT...WE COULD SEE A RENEWED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA. THUS...WE
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY/NUM RANGES BY THIS TIME...AGN MAINLY
NRN/WRN PTNS OF THE FA.
SUN SEEMS A BIT COMPLICATED FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...AS ONE
WELL DEFINED UPR WV (JUST ALLUDED TO) SHOULD SWING BY TO OUR N
DURG THE AM/MIDDAY HRS...WITH PERHAPS A DECREASE IN MID TO UPR-LVL
FORCING FOR CNY/NE PA THEREAFTER. THE NAM SEEMS MOST BULLISH ON
THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING A DVLPG MID-LVL CAP SUN AFTN/EVE...LIKELY
DUE TO DVM/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AT THAT LVL BEHIND THE WV...AND
WITH DETERIORATING UPR JET DYNAMICS. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE UPR WV...AND ALSO SHOWS A BETTER DEFINED PV TAIL
TO THE S THROUGH OUR FA SUN AFTN...JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC
FRNT. SFC COLD FRNTL TIMING SEEMS OPTIMAL FOR TSRA DVLPMT...WITH
FROPA EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EVE...HOWEVER MID TO UPR-LVL FORCING SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST QUESTIONABLE ASPECT. FOR NOW...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
CONTINUE TO MENTION PSBL SVR TSRA/HVY RAINFALL ON SUN...WITH MODEL
DIFFS EVIDENT...AND SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS (NOT TYPICALLY WELL
RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT) LIKELY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HOW
THINGS TRANSPIRE ON SUN. AT ANY RATE...WE FELT COMFORTABLE
CONTINUING LIKELY/NUM POPS SUN AFTN INTO THE EVE PD.
THE COLD FRNT SHOULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE RGN BY LTR
SUN NGT...WITH COOLER TEMPS TO FOLLOW ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
CYCLE, JUST MINOR TWEAKS OF TEMPS/POPS.
330 PM UPDATE...
A COOLER BUT VERY QUIET LONG TERM FORECAST EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT
SHOT AT RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE A
DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH NEAR A CLOSED LOW OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR NORTH BUT WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. AFTER THAT TIME
HEIGHTS BUILD WITH AN H5 RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS OUR FLOW TURNS MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA. THE EURO WOULD
KEEP IT WEST OF US THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES
PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CHANCE POPS FROM
WPC GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD THIS FAR OUT AND WILL FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN NY AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING REMAINING AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS. ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL RESULT FROM THIS
WITH SCATTERED MID LAYER CLOUDS AND SCT/BKN CI. AT KELM, VALLEY
FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.
FOR TODAY, MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INCLUDED PROB30 18Z-22Z IN ALL TAFS FOR MVFR
THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-18 KNOTS
DECREASING THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
MON/TUE...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE LINGERING MVFR FROM -SHRA EARLY MON.
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
124 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
820 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ALONG LAKE ERIE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WAVE. THE LATEST HRRR FORECASTS
SOME OF THE SWRN NY ACTIVITY TO BRUSH AGAINST OUR WESTERN FA
BORDERS BETWEEN 7Z-9Z. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE
WESTERN GRIDS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
420 PM UPDATE... ISOLD TSRA HAVE FIRED OVER OUR SERN ZNS LATE THIS
AFTN...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPR-LVL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIE OUT EARLY THIS EVE...AS FORCING WANES...AND THE AMS
STABILIZES DIURNALLY.
LTR TNT/TWDS DAYBREAK...THE REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL
TO OUR W ATTM ACRS SRN ONT/LK ERIE COULD APPROACH OUR FAR NRN/WRN
ZNS. IN GENERAL...THIS PCPN SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENED PHASE BY THAT
TIME...AS IT WILL HAVE WELL OUTRUN ITS MAIN UPR-LVL SUPPORT. WE
HAVE ISOLD-SCTD POPS ACRS THE FINGER LKS/MOHAWK VLY/SRN TUG HILL
ZNS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
DRY WX FORESEEN FROM THE TWIN TIERS SWD OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY
PATCHY FOG/HZ PSBL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE... ALTHOUGH WE`LL REMAIN UNDER A SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPR
RIDGE SAT...WE MAY SEE SOME HGT FALLS AFTER 18Z...SPCLY NRN/WRN
AREAS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A FAST MOVG UPR IMPULSE BRUSHING
UPSTATE NY...COULD SPARK SOME DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHRA/TSRA. THE
BEST CHC (SCTD VERBIAGE) SHOULD BE IN OUR NRN/WRN ZNS...WITH MORE
ISOLD COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
SAT NGT...REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD WANE DURG
THE EVE...LEADING TO A RELATIVE LULL FOR MOST OF THE NGT. TWDS SUN
AM...AS A MUCH BETTER DEFINED UPR-LVL TROUGH SWINGS TWDS SRN
ONT/LK ONT...WE COULD SEE A RENEWED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA. THUS...WE
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY/NUM RANGES BY THIS TIME...AGN MAINLY
NRN/WRN PTNS OF THE FA.
SUN SEEMS A BIT COMPLICATED FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT...AS ONE
WELL DEFINED UPR WV (JUST ALLUDED TO) SHOULD SWING BY TO OUR N
DURG THE AM/MIDDAY HRS...WITH PERHAPS A DECREASE IN MID TO UPR-LVL
FORCING FOR CNY/NE PA THEREAFTER. THE NAM SEEMS MOST BULLISH ON
THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING A DVLPG MID-LVL CAP SUN AFTN/EVE...LIKELY
DUE TO DVM/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AT THAT LVL BEHIND THE WV...AND
WITH DETERIORATING UPR JET DYNAMICS. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE UPR WV...AND ALSO SHOWS A BETTER DEFINED PV TAIL
TO THE S THROUGH OUR FA SUN AFTN...JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC
FRNT. SFC COLD FRNTL TIMING SEEMS OPTIMAL FOR TSRA DVLPMT...WITH
FROPA EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EVE...HOWEVER MID TO UPR-LVL FORCING SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST QUESTIONABLE ASPECT. FOR NOW...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
CONTINUE TO MENTION PSBL SVR TSRA/HVY RAINFALL ON SUN...WITH MODEL
DIFFS EVIDENT...AND SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS (NOT TYPICALLY WELL
RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT) LIKELY TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HOW
THINGS TRANSPIRE ON SUN. AT ANY RATE...WE FELT COMFORTABLE
CONTINUING LIKELY/NUM POPS SUN AFTN INTO THE EVE PD.
THE COLD FRNT SHOULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE RGN BY LTR
SUN NGT...WITH COOLER TEMPS TO FOLLOW ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
A COOLER BUT VERY QUIET LONG TERM FORECAST EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT
SHOT AT RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE A
DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH NEAR A CLOSED LOW OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR NORTH BUT WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. AFTER THAT TIME
HEIGHTS BUILD WITH AN H5 RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS OUR FLOW TURNS MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA. THE EURO WOULD
KEEP IT WEST OF US THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES
PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CHANCE POPS FROM
WPC GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD THIS FAR OUT AND WILL FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN NY AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING REMAINING AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS. ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL RESULT FROM THIS
WITH SCATTERED MID LAYER CLOUDS AND SCT/BKN CI. AT KELM, VALLEY
FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.
FOR TODAY, MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INCLUDED PROB30 18Z-22Z IN ALL TAFS FOR MVFR
THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-18 KNOTS
DECREASING THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
MON/TUE...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE LINGERING MVFR FROM -SHRA EARLY MON.
WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1021 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM SUNDAY...WEAKENING LINE OF CONVECTION KNOCKING ON
OUR BACK DOOR THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION. DUE TO APPROACHING LINE OF
CONVECTION HAVE RAMPED UP POPS PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS BELOW:
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COME TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EAST. THE MAIN MID
TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE MOISTENING OF THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL COME IN THE WAY OF INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH MID LEVELS REMAINING DRIER UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
PCP WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE CLOSE
TO 2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN 20 TO 30 KT LLJ. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY MAINLY WEST OF CWA...BASICALLY
WEST OF I-95 INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALSO SOME SHOWERS MAKING
THEIR WAY ON SHORE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST...THEN AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH HIGH
PCP WATER VALUES WOULD COUNT ON EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND WITH
STEERING FLOW NOT TOO STRONG WILL SEE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING HEADING INTO MONDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
WILL HOLD TEMPS UP WITH READINGS DROPPING DOWN ONLY NEAR 70 IN MOST
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IS THE PROSPECT OF
RAINFALL MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
STORM PARAMETERS SUCH AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMPOSITES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 2
INCHES MONDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE
ASSOCIATED ASCENT TO TAP INTO THIS DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE AND
GENERATE DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS. NCEP/WPC DEPICTIONS PAINT 1-1.5
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
COASTAL LOCALS MAY BENEFIT FROM ONSHORE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WELL AS THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FAVORABLE FORCING ON
MONDAY. MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH COOLING DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FEEL NOTABLY COOLER...BUT
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS IN NE-E LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
MAXIMUM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST TO LOW/MID 80S
INLAND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING INCREASING NE FLOW INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...WELL...IT IS JUNE...AND THUS TROPICAL
STORMS BECOME FOREFRONT ON THE MIND OF FORECASTERS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD IS NO DIFFERENT...AS THE CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND ITS POSSIBLE IMPACTS HERE IN THE CAROLINAS.
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ATTEMPT
TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE GUIDANCE IS NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN DEVELOPING A
SYSTEM...DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN INTENSITY AND TRACK. CMC
CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG/FAST/WEST OUTLIER AND AGAIN IS
DISCOUNTED...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF BEING FAVORED CURRENTLY BY WPC. WHILE A
SOMEWHAT WESTWARD TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN MODELS THE PAST FEW
RUNS...LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHEARING TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WILL MAKE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED WHICH IS REASONABLE FOR THE THU-SUN
TIMEFRAME...RAMPING POP TO HIGH CHC LATE FRIDAY. WILL NOTE THAT WITH
THE BULK OF GUIDANCE KEEPING THE CWA WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...POP MAY BE OVERDONE (THINK TS ALBERTO MAY 2012) BUT
SEVERAL DAYS OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD SOMEWHAT NEGATE
ANY SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EFFECTS. THESE TYPES OF SPECIFICS ARE MORE
USUALLY RESOLVED IN/RESERVED FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND THUS WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR D4-D6.
ANY IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE BOOKENDED...WEDNESDAY
AND SUNDAY...BY RIDGING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE
COAST...WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER AROUND...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR HIGHS...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA
IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE CAROLINAS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT IFR CIGS INLAND AND MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST TO
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TERMS EARLY MONDAY...AS
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW PCPN NEARING KLBT/KFLO FROM THE WEST AND ISO
SHOWERS WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTAL TERMS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AFTER 12Z WITH BETTER UPPER FORCING.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS... WHICH SEEM PROBABLE GIVEN PW VALUES APPROACHING
2 INCHES. ISO T-STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN S/SW AROUND 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR ON
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED PCPN
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 KT
RANGE WITH SEAS OF 3 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS BELOW:
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT FLOW AROUND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP NEAR 20 KTS BUT LATER THIS EVENING WINDS WILL REACH A SOLID 15
KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
MORE S-SE TO S-SW. THE SEAS BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS NEAR SHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND CLOSER TO 3 FT
NEAR SHORE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...SEAS WILL BE A BIT BUMPY MONDAY AS SOUTH
WAVES BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT
WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY FOR SEAS UP 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT OVER THE
0-20NM WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL VASTLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AS
WINDS EASE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS TO
SHIFT BRIEFLY TO NW BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY BUT VERY LIGHT. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE NE-ENE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SURGES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY FOR THE 0-20NM WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AND
CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...KEEP THE CAROLINAS PINCHED
WITH A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WHILE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THIS POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE WORST IMPACTS WOULD OCCUR
AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD SO THERE IS TIME TO REFINE THE FORECAST.
FOR NOW...EXPECT E/NE WINDS WEDNESDAY...BACKING SLOWLY TO EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY...AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS REGARDLESS OF
DIRECTION. AGAIN...SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY
FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL WAVE GROUPS ARE EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE...A WIND CHOP FOLLOWING
THE PREDOMINANT WIND WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT GROUP IN THE SPECTRUM.
A SE SWELL OF 2-3FT/8SEC WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...BUT THE AMOUNT OF
CONTRIBUTION THIS WILL HAVE TO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT AS WELL ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
748 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:00 PM SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM
ARE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RELATIVELY WEAK THUNDERSTORM IS NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ROBESON COUNTY.EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION AFTER THIS ACTIVITY
FADES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR PRESENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW:
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COME TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EAST. THE MAIN MID
TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE MOISTENING OF THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL COME IN THE WAY OF INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH MID LEVELS REMAINING DRIER UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
PCP WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE CLOSE
TO 2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN 20 TO 30 KT LLJ. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY MAINLY WEST OF CWA...BASICALLY
WEST OF I-95 INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALSO SOME SHOWERS MAKING
THEIR WAY ON SHORE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST...THEN AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH HIGH
PCP WATER VALUES WOULD COUNT ON EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND WITH
STEERING FLOW NOT TOO STRONG WILL SEE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING HEADING INTO MONDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
WILL HOLD TEMPS UP WITH READINGS DROPPING DOWN ONLY NEAR 70 IN MOST
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IS THE PROSPECT OF
RAINFALL MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
STORM PARAMETERS SUCH AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMPOSITES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 2
INCHES MONDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE
ASSOCIATED ASCENT TO TAP INTO THIS DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE AND
GENERATE DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS. NCEP/WPC DEPICTIONS PAINT 1-1.5
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
COASTAL LOCALS MAY BENEFIT FROM ONSHORE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WELL AS THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FAVORABLE FORCING ON
MONDAY. MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH COOLING DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FEEL NOTABLY COOLER...BUT
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS IN NE-E LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
MAXIMUM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST TO LOW/MID 80S
INLAND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING INCREASING NE FLOW INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...WELL...IT IS JUNE...AND THUS TROPICAL
STORMS BECOME FOREFRONT ON THE MIND OF FORECASTERS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD IS NO DIFFERENT...AS THE CONCERN
REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND ITS POSSIBLE IMPACTS HERE IN THE CAROLINAS.
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ATTEMPT
TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WHILE GUIDANCE IS NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN DEVELOPING A
SYSTEM...DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN INTENSITY AND TRACK. CMC
CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG/FAST/WEST OUTLIER AND AGAIN IS
DISCOUNTED...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF BEING FAVORED CURRENTLY BY WPC. WHILE A
SOMEWHAT WESTWARD TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN MODELS THE PAST FEW
RUNS...LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHEARING TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WILL MAKE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED WHICH IS REASONABLE FOR THE THU-SUN
TIMEFRAME...RAMPING POP TO HIGH CHC LATE FRIDAY. WILL NOTE THAT WITH
THE BULK OF GUIDANCE KEEPING THE CWA WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...POP MAY BE OVERDONE (THINK TS ALBERTO MAY 2012) BUT
SEVERAL DAYS OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD SOMEWHAT NEGATE
ANY SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EFFECTS. THESE TYPES OF SPECIFICS ARE MORE
USUALLY RESOLVED IN/RESERVED FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND THUS WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR D4-D6.
ANY IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE BOOKENDED...WEDNESDAY
AND SUNDAY...BY RIDGING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE
COAST...WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER AROUND...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR HIGHS...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA
IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE CAROLINAS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT IFR CIGS INLAND AND MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST TO
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TERMS EARLY MONDAY...AS
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW PCPN NEARING KLBT/KFLO FROM THE WEST AND ISO
SHOWERS WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTAL TERMS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AFTER 12Z WITH BETTER UPPER FORCING.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS... WHICH SEEM PROBABLE GIVEN PW VALUES APPROACHING
2 INCHES. ISO T-STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN S/SW AROUND 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR ON
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED PCPN
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...HAVE DROPPED SCEC HEADLINES WITH LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE AS IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW CRITERIA. LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 KT RANGE
WITH SEAS OF 3 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW:
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT FLOW AROUND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP NEAR 20 KTS BUT LATER THIS EVENING WINDS WILL REACH A SOLID 15
KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
MORE S-SE TO S-SW. THE SEAS BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS NEAR SHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND CLOSER TO 3 FT
NEAR SHORE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...SEAS WILL BE A BIT BUMPY MONDAY AS SOUTH
WAVES BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT
WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY FOR SEAS UP 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT OVER THE
0-20NM WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL VASTLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AS
WINDS EASE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS TO
SHIFT BRIEFLY TO NW BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY BUT VERY LIGHT. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE NE-ENE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SURGES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY FOR THE 0-20NM WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AND
CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...KEEP THE CAROLINAS PINCHED
WITH A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WHILE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THIS POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE WORST IMPACTS WOULD OCCUR
AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD SO THERE IS TIME TO REFINE THE FORECAST.
FOR NOW...EXPECT E/NE WINDS WEDNESDAY...BACKING SLOWLY TO EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY...AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS REGARDLESS OF
DIRECTION. AGAIN...SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY
FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL WAVE GROUPS ARE EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE...A WIND CHOP FOLLOWING
THE PREDOMINANT WIND WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT GROUP IN THE SPECTRUM.
A SE SWELL OF 2-3FT/8SEC WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...BUT THE AMOUNT OF
CONTRIBUTION THIS WILL HAVE TO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT AS WELL ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
114 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM SATURDAY...AN EARLY SUMMER PATTERN APPEARS WELL IN
PLACE FOR TODAYS FORECAST...THOUGH A BIT DRY ALOFT PER 12Z RAOB
PLOTS FROM CHS/MHX. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE RETAINED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INLAND ADVANCING SEA BREEZE FRONT PLOWS TO
THE NW INTO A HUMID LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 DEG F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE THE ONLY IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE GENERATION AND SUBSEQUENT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC OMEGA IN A NARROW BAND MARCHING INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS ARE SHAPED TO DROP BELOW MENTIONABLE
VALUES BY 22Z/6PM PER LATEST 4KM NSSL WRF AND HRRR 3KM DEPICTIONS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COAST AND COASTAL
INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 80S WELL INLAND REMOVED FROM THE COOLING
AND INLAND PROGRESSING MARINE LAYER. A QUIET AND FAIR EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ANTICIPATED...WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR LOW
TEMPS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
WORK TO KEEP THE REGION DRY SUN. DO THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE BUT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE LATER SUN ACROSS INLAND SC. INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AS
RIDGING RETREATS LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP IS REASONABLE
BUT HAVE EXPANDED CHC POP AREA A BIT FARTHER EAST.
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD APPEARS QUITE WET WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP PLENTY
OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WHAT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT. ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT MON/MON NIGHT BUT DEEP MOISTURE...SLOW STORM MOTION...AND
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER SUGGEST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO DROP A LOT OF RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMEST SUN WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND EARLIER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LIMITING HIGHS ON MON. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
NIGHT...HELD UP BY DEBRIS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. LIMITED MID LEVEL PUSH KEEPS THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST FOR AT LEAST FIRST PART OF TUE SO PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON. INHERITED CHC POP SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL BE
MAINTAINED.
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK REMAINS IN QUESTION AS POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND ITS MOISTURE PLUME CLOUDS THE FUTURE. ILL DEFINED MID LEVEL
PATTERN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LEADS TO A WEAK
WEDGE TYPE SET UP. ANTICIPATE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN FLAT STRATOCU
DECK WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WED/THU GIVEN VERY LITTLE
FORCING AND DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ALONG THE COAST
AS SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS MOVE ONSHORE. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WHILE HOLDING LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE.
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LATE WITH RESPECT TO SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM GULF OF MEXICO. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE FEATURE BUT
WITH WILDLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. 00Z CANADIAN LOOKS NOTHING LIKE ITS
12Z RUN AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. LATEST GFS SOLUTION KEEPS
THE LOW WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG
REMAINS OF WASHED OUT COLD FRONT. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STEERING LEVEL
FEATURES AND A FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE PATTERN SUPPORT A SLOWER
SOLUTION...RULING OUT THE LATEST CANADIAN. GIVEN THE LACK OF
STEERING FEATURES THINK THE LOW IS GOING TO TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG
THE REMAINS OF THE TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE LATEST GFS IS
SUGGESTING. FOR NOW WILL TREND FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH
THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS SLOWER/DEEPER AND MOVES THE
SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHEAST...CANNOT NOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO END UP BELOW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS
RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SE-S WITH
HIGHEST SPEEDS AT THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLY
DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES INLAND. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LIFT NOR COVERAGE SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION AT ANY TERMINALS EVEN THOUGH THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
MOVING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN/AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WORST CONDITIONS AT KFLO/KLBT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED
13-14Z WITH SE-S WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING MVFR/IFR PRODUCING CONVECTION CHANCES
AND COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DROPPING BACK TO ISOLATED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM SATURDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR
TONIGHT ASIDE FROM INCREASED WEEKEND BOATING TRAFFIC ON THE
WATERS. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
INDUCE S-SE WINDS TODAY...INCREASING A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 15 KT FROM INLAND HEATING AND CONSERVATION OF MASS LAWS.
THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF SE WAVES AROUND 3 FEET AT 8
SECONDS AND A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY CHOP...BECOMING MODERATE NEAR SHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW BELOW 10 KT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD INCREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT SUN AFTERNOON...REMAINING SOUTHERLY
AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH RETREATS SUN NIGHT AND MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT ANTICIPATED WHICH
WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS
WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT STALLING IN THE AREA TUE WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TUE
EVENING. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK TUE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED WED AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
DOWN THE COAST. PINCHED GRADIENT RESULTS IN NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WED AND WED NIGHT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT TO
START THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT WED AND WED NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
936 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 936 AM SATURDAY...AN EARLY SUMMER PATTERN APPEARS WELL IN
PLACE FOR TODAYS FORECAST...THOUGH A BIT DRY ALOFT PER 12Z RAOB
PLOTS FROM CHS/MHX. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE RETAINED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INLAND ADVANCING SEA BREEZE FRONT PLOWS TO
THE NW INTO A HUMID LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 DEG F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE THE ONLY IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE GENERATION AND SUBSEQUENT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC OMEGA IN A NARROW BAND MARCHING INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS ARE SHAPED TO DROP BELOW MENTIONABLE
VALUES BY 22Z/6PM PER LATEST 4KM NSSL WRF AND HRRR 3KM DEPICTIONS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COAST AND COASTAL
INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 80S WELL INLAND REMOVED FROM THE COOLING
AND INLAND PROGRESSING MARINE LAYER. A QUIET AND FAIR EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ANTICIPATED...WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR LOW
TEMPS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
WORK TO KEEP THE REGION DRY SUN. DO THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE BUT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE LATER SUN ACROSS INLAND SC. INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AS
RIDGING RETREATS LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP IS REASONABLE
BUT HAVE EXPANDED CHC POP AREA A BIT FARTHER EAST.
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD APPEARS QUITE WET WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP PLENTY
OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WHAT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT. ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT MON/MON NIGHT BUT DEEP MOISTURE...SLOW STORM MOTION...AND
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER SUGGEST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO DROP A LOT OF RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMEST SUN WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND EARLIER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LIMITING HIGHS ON MON. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
NIGHT...HELD UP BY DEBRIS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. LIMITED MID LEVEL PUSH KEEPS THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST FOR AT LEAST FIRST PART OF TUE SO PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO AFTERNOON. INHERITED CHC POP SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL BE
MAINTAINED.
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK REMAINS IN QUESTION AS POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND ITS MOISTURE PLUME CLOUDS THE FUTURE. ILL DEFINED MID LEVEL
PATTERN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LEADS TO A WEAK
WEDGE TYPE SET UP. ANTICIPATE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN FLAT STRATOCU
DECK WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WED/THU GIVEN VERY LITTLE
FORCING AND DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ALONG THE COAST
AS SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS MOVE ONSHORE. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WHILE HOLDING LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE.
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LATE WITH RESPECT TO SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM GULF OF MEXICO. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE FEATURE BUT
WITH WILDLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. 00Z CANADIAN LOOKS NOTHING LIKE ITS
12Z RUN AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. LATEST GFS SOLUTION KEEPS
THE LOW WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG
REMAINS OF WASHED OUT COLD FRONT. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STEERING LEVEL
FEATURES AND A FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE PATTERN SUPPORT A SLOWER
SOLUTION...RULING OUT THE LATEST CANADIAN. GIVEN THE LACK OF
STEERING FEATURES THINK THE LOW IS GOING TO TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG
THE REMAINS OF THE TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE LATEST GFS IS
SUGGESTING. FOR NOW WILL TREND FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH
THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS SLOWER/DEEPER AND MOVES THE
SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHEAST...CANNOT NOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO END UP BELOW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS
RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 13Z...FOG IS DENSEST INLAND AND THINNEST JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST THIS MORNING. LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS/CIGS FROM KFLO-KLBT SHOULD
RISE TO VFR AROUND 13Z...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR VSBYS
COULD LINGER UNTIL 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS...STRONGEST AT THE COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS AND BEGINS TO PROGRESS
INLAND. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT NOR
COVERAGE SO WILL DROP THE MENTION OF TS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. ONCE
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES FURTHER INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY
THIS AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ATTM WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE KFLO/KLBT TAFS DESPITE THE SEA BREEZE MOVING
INTO THESE TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND WILL INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
WORST CONDITIONS AT KFLO/KLBT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING MVFR/IFR PRODUCING CONVECTION CHANCES AND
COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DROPPING BACK TO ISOLATED WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 936 AM SATURDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR
TONIGHT ASIDE FROM INCREASED WEEKEND BOATING TRAFFIC ON THE
WATERS. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
INDUCE S-SE WINDS TODAY...INCREASING A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 15 KT FROM INLAND HEATING AND CONSERVATION OF MASS LAWS.
THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF SE WAVES AROUND 3 FEET AT 8
SECONDS AND A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY CHOP...BECOMING MODERATE NEAR SHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW BELOW 10 KT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD INCREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT SUN AFTERNOON...REMAINING SOUTHERLY
AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH RETREATS SUN NIGHT AND MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT ANTICIPATED WHICH
WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS
WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT STALLING IN THE AREA TUE WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TUE
EVENING. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK TUE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED WED AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
DOWN THE COAST. PINCHED GRADIENT RESULTS IN NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WED AND WED NIGHT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT TO
START THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT WED AND WED NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
LOW CU DEVELOPING BEHIND MAIN CLOUD BAND WITH LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE VALUES. RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL DELAY CLEARING AND LOWER MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND PREFER THE CONSISTENT GFS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IT WILL BE
WINDY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35MPH AT TIMES. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. TEMPS WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND
MOST AREAS WILL NOT REACH 60.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME FOG GIVEN WET CONDITIONS...BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION
BUT MONITOR.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT IT WILL BE WARMER THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED BUT NOT QUITE AS
COLD AS TONIGHTS TEMPS.
ON MONDAY...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.
TEMPS COULD BE WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS CANADA
AND THE US. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN WHILE THE ECMWF
WAS TRENDING FASTER. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS. SO
TODAYS PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN YESTERDAYS RUN.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED AND A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
FOR THU AND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXTENSIVE MVFR CLOUD SHIELD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS TOWARDS KBJI. IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CU HAVE DEVELOPED ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD TOWARDS THE DVL AREA. STILL
EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN QUICKLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RESPOND ABOUT AS FORECAST FROM RECENT RAINS.
STILL RECEIVING LATE REPORTS FROM AREA EM`S. ONE SUCH REPORT FROM
WALSH COUNTY EM WAS OF 7 INCHES YESTERDAY IN THE OAKWOOD AREA NEAR
THE TORNADIC CELL. AS RUNOFF MAXIMIZES TODAY EXPECT PEAKS TO OCCUR
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.
GRAFTON ON ITS WAY TO MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
LOCAL UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTION THE CREST COULD EXCEED 14.5 FEET.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A 14.0 TO 15.0 RANGE IN FLS. MINTO RISING AND
IS ON TRACK TO REACH 7.0 FEET FORECAST FOR JUNE 3RD.
NECHE HAS EXCEEDED MAJOR FLOOD LEVEL AS OF 17Z AND IS ON THE WAY TO
21.0 FEET. CURRENT RATE OF RISE SUGGESTS IT MAY EXCEED THAT AND WILL
COORDINATE WITH THE RFC. THE TWO RIVERS AT HALLOCK IS LAYING OVER
AND WILL CREST JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS.
HAVE EXTENDED THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY DUE
TO CONTINUED ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING CONTINUES EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD AS DRAINAGE RETARDED DUE TO
HIGH RIVER LEVELS.
OTHERWISE HIGH WATER STATEMENTS IN EFFECT AT WAHPETON...OSLO...
DRAYTON AND PEMBINA. THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
WALHALLA AND REPLACED WITH AN RVS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
LOW CU DEVELOPING BEHIND MAIN CLOUD BAND WITH LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE VALUES. RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL DELAY CLEARING AND LOWER MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND PREFER THE CONSISTENT GFS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IT WILL BE
WINDY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35MPH AT TIMES. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. TEMPS WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND
MOST AREAS WILL NOT REACH 60.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME FOG GIVEN WET CONDITIONS...BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION
BUT MONITOR.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT IT WILL BE WARMER THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED BUT NOT QUITE AS
COLD AS TONIGHTS TEMPS.
ON MONDAY...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.
TEMPS COULD BE WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS CANADA
AND THE US. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN WHILE THE ECMWF
WAS TRENDING FASTER. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS. SO
TODAYS PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN YESTERDAYS RUN.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS PACKAGE. HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED AND A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
FOR THU AND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT AT TIMES
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
JUST OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY IN THE GRAFTON AREA.
RUNOFF FROM TODAYS RAIN ALONG WITH RUNOFF FROM THURSDAYS HEAVY
RAIN IN THE PARK RIVER AREA WILL PUSH THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON TO
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY. THE PEMBINA RIVER AT NECHE WILL ALSO
SEE FURTHER RISES TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY. AN AREAL
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF WALSH COUNTY. THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN TRIBUTARIES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
541 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMPT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE AREA...BEFORE A DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
...QUICK UPDATE...
OF MOST IMMINENT CONCERN FOR SVR WX IS NRN END OF LARGER SCALE
LINE OF STORMS TAKING SHAPE FROM EAST OF FRANKFORT ALL THE WAY
INTO CNTL TN. THERE ARE FEW DISCRETE UPDRAFTS THAT HAVE BEEN
BROADLY/WEAKLY ROTATING ABOUVE 5KFT AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
NERN KY COUNTIES. MESOA SUPPORTS THIS - WITH DEEP SHEAR AROUND 35
KTS - MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THESE
MAY POSE A BRIEF HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT INTO OUR SERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE TOR THREAT STILL IS QUITE MARGINAL WITH
KILN VWP BEING VERY DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OUT OF THE SW AND
THUS 0-1KM SHEAR MOSTLY < 20 KTS. BUT WILL CLOSELY WATCH THESE
CELLS. OTHERWISE REST OF THINKING STILL IS ON TRACK...WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY HOW STORMS NOW DEVELOPING IN ILLINOIS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH LARGE INSTBY MINIMUM OVER IND.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FOR BEING AS CLOSE AS WE ARE TO GETTING INTO A POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH GIVEN HOW EXTENSIVE
FRIDAY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE MODULATED THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND SHIFTED WEAK FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION RATHER
SUBSTANTIALLY. AMALGAM OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/
RUNNING EXPERIMENTALLY AT 3-4KM RESOLUTION HAVE BEEN WILD AND
ERRATIC IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WHETHER IT BE HRRR OR NCEP VERSIONS OF HIRESW-
NMM/ARW WINDOWS. THUS - UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND DO NOT HAVE GOOD
FEELING HOW NEXT 12 HOURS WILL EVOLVE.
18Z MESOANALYSIS /SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE/ SHOWS ERN EDGE OF
DECAYED MCS FROM LAST NIGHT NOW FROM AREAS AROUND CVG SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. EAST OF THIS DEMARCATION - MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 IN KY/OHIO AS OF RIGHT NOW - THE
ATMOSPHERE IS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KTS...AND MLCAPE FROM
750 TO 1250 J/KG BASED ON THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS INTEGRATED INTO
LAPS ANALYSIS. WEST OF THIS AREA...IT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO RECOVER
DUE TO DEEPER/STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS
FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS. BUT THIS AREA IS DESTABILIZING MILDLY TOO.
BASED ON A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT CAM RUNS...AND THE MESOA MENTIONED
ABOVE...FEEL THE BEST SHORT TERM THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
FROM INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DISCRETE CELLS NOW OVER
CNTL KY AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF LEADING EDGE OF OLD MCS AREA OVER WRN
KY - WHICH SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN LATCHING ONTO AS A
POSSIBLE AREA OF GROWTH. THIS ALL COULD CONGEAL AND GIVE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT VIA A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE 5 PM TO 9 PM
TIMEFRAME ALONG AND EAST OF A CVG TO CMH LINE. THIS AREA HAS THE
LARGEST DCAPE POOL FOR SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO WORK FROM AS
WELL AS MLCAPE...BUT IS DISPLACED EAST A BIT FROM DEEPER SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER /30KTS/ THAT A
BOWING SEGMENT OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SPC GRABBED A PART OF
THIS AREA IN RECENT SWOMCD WITH MARGINAL CONFIDENCE FOR A
WATCH...SO RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED UPSTREAM FOR
GROWTH/ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT TOTALLY
ZERO...LOW LEVEL SHEAR VIA A PERSISTENT SWLY /MOIST/ LLJ IS
KEEPING 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 20KTS...BUT FLOW IS RATHER
UNIDIRECTIONAL. A LOCAL BACKING TO SLY WOULD MAKE THINGS MORE
INTERESTING BUT THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN DOESN`T REALLY SUPPORT
THAT - SO OVERALL TOR THREAT IS NOT HIGH PER CURRENT
ANALYSIS/FORECASTS. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTBY...HAIL WOULD BE AN
OUTLIER GIVEN THE MOIST ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WE/VE
BEEN DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT DECAYING MCS MOST OF
THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT...STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AS DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. EXPECT...AT SOME POINT...A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO BEGIN TO CONGEAL/INCREASE ALONG THIS FEATURE AS WELL
BUT GIVEN ITS EXPECTED ARRIVAL THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECTING SEVERE
THREAT TO REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL WITH THIS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WITH ANY LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED...AND TONIGHT
WILL BE NO EXCEPTION BUT THE LARGE POOL OF MINIMUM INSTABILITY
OVER INDIANA IS GOING TO REALLY WORK AGAINST SOMETHING REALLY
TAKING OFF. WHILE CAM RUNS /AS MENTIONED ABOVE/ ARE REALLY ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...STUCK WITH
STRONGER FORCING /RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET AND INCREASING PV
AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE/ TO DRIVE HIGHER RAIN/STORM
CHANCES LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A CONTINUATION OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STILL THINK /GIVEN MOIST PWATS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS/
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES
WILL BE A PROBLEM WITH ANY STORMS THAT LINGER OVER AN AREA MORE
THAN AN HOUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SECONDARY WAVE ALOFT FINALLY ESCORTS THE TROUGH AXIS OUT OF THE
AREA TOMORROW AND THIS ALLOWS A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. MAY BE A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FEATURE BY MID AFTERNOON...SO CARRIED THIS CHANCE FROM
NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF THIS
FRONT AND MAKES FOR A COMFORTABLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 50S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY
NIGHT. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUESDAY. SO TOOK
A CONSENSUS FORECAST AND RAISED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST. THE
ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST WITH THE RETURN PCPN...BUT THE REMAINING
MODELS KEEP THE FA DRY...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE MAJORITY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WRMFNT DEVELOPS OVER THE OH VLY...
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNTIL STABLE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SCT TSRA. THU NGT INTO FRI...H5 WAVE SWINGS UP THE OH VLY
ADDING EXTRA LIFT AND IT DRIVES A CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
CHC OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20-25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL A STUBBORN MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK OVER MOST OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END. WATCHING FOR
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THINKING THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AROUND THE EASTERN
TAF SITES AS THAT AREA HAS SEEN THE MOST DAYTIME HEATING SO FAR.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL COME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING BRIEF YET
STRONG SHIFTING WINDS AS THEY PASS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...KURZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
336 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SECTOR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK. WARM FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...15Z REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONGOING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...FROM WESTERN OHIO SW-WARD
DOWN THE EXTENT OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN TENN/ARKANSAS
RESULTANT OF STRONG OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. SFC TEMPS IN WHAT APPEARED
YESTERDAY TO BE THE FAVORED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT
SVR WX INITIATION STILL ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S GENERALLY...WITH
NO LIGHTNING STRIKES CURRENTLY. SHOULD PRECIP/CLOUDS HANG ON OVER
THAT AREA...STRONGER STORMS MAY WAIT TO FORM FURTHER EAST OVER
CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS SOUTHWEST WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S DESPITE FAIRLY DENSE HIGH CLOUD COVER. GOOD
DYNAMICS ARRIVE BY 21Z WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE 30-40KTS OF
SHEAR IN PLACE. WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST
HOWEVER...TOUGH CALL ON DETERMINING A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. A VORT
MAX PER LATEST RUC13 PROGGED TO PUSH NE-WARD THROUGH CENTRAL KY BY
21Z-00Z MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING. DO FEEL THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FORM BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT FIRST RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST BY AND AFTER 00Z SUN. AS USUAL...IT APPEARS TO BE A RACE
BETWEEN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME PEAK INSTABILITY. BUT
IN THE END...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER BUT THE THREAT
APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST. STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD
WITH DCAPE VALS OVER 1K J/KG JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EL/S ARE SUFFICIENTLY TALL FOR SOME LARGE HAIL.
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE GENERAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WITH SOME
THUNDER PERHAPS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH-TYPE FEATURE. STILL EXPECTING
ROUGHLY A HALF-INCH OR SO ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME LOCALIZED WATER
ISSUES COULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS PASS OVER THE
SAME LOCATION BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. SUNDAY...AGAIN LITTLE
CHANGE FROM PREV FCST WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING
ACROSS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS CONFINED
MAINLY TO CKB-CRW AND POINTS EAST BY 18Z. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HOWEVER
STILL LAGS WELL BEHIND AND ONLY ENTERING THE NW ZONES BY END OF THE
PERIOD. INHERITED MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 FOR LOWLANDS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GFS/ECMWF SHOW COLD FRONT OVER THE OH RIVER BY 00Z MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT BRINGS A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE AT THE SFC COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR
CALM. THEN...FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MILD AFTERNOON...AND RELATIVELY
COLDER NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK SEMI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO VORT MAX FROM SHORTWAVES
SUGGEST BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEARING CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR
LOW LEVEL DIURNAL CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY ON. TWEAKED DOWN WPC
TEMPERATURE A BIT.
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORMS ACROSS OH INTO SOUTHEAST OH
THURSDAY...UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...WILL ALSO RETURN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...AFTERNOON HIGH BASED CU WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER 00Z...BAND OF CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER BY 06Z SUNDAY...THE
I79 CORRIDOR BY 09Z...AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THIS RAIN BAND...WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. WILL USE VCTS IN TAFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF BAND OF CONVECTION LATER PART OF
PERIOD MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND IN POST-RAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
328 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMPT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE AREA...BEFORE A DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FOR BEING AS CLOSE AS WE ARE TO GETTING INTO A POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH GIVEN HOW EXTENSIVE
FRIDAY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE MODULATED THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND SHIFTED WEAK FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION RATHER
SUBSTANTIALLY. AMALGAM OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/
RUNNING EXPERIMENTALLY AT 3-4KM RESOLUTION HAVE BEEN WILD AND
ERRATIC IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WHETHER IT BE HRRR OR NCEP VERSIONS OF HIRESW-
NMM/ARW WINDOWS. THUS - UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND DO NOT HAVE GOOD
FEELING HOW NEXT 12 HOURS WILL EVOLVE.
18Z MESOANALYSIS /SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE/ SHOWS ERN EDGE OF
DECAYED MCS FROM LAST NIGHT NOW FROM AREAS AROUND CVG SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. EAST OF THIS DEMARCATION - MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 IN KY/OHIO AS OF RIGHT NOW - THE
ATMOSPHERE IS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KTS...AND MLCAPE FROM
750 TO 1250 J/KG BASED ON THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS INTEGRATED INTO
LAPS ANALYSIS. WEST OF THIS AREA...IT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO RECOVER
DUE TO DEEPER/STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS
FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS. BUT THIS AREA IS DESTABILIZING MILDLY TOO.
BASED ON A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT CAM RUNS...AND THE MESOA MENTIONED
ABOVE...FEEL THE BEST SHORT TERM THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
FROM INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DISCRETE CELLS NOW OVER
CNTL KY AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF LEADING EDGE OF OLD MCS AREA OVER WRN
KY - WHICH SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN LATCHING ONTO AS A
POSSIBLE AREA OF GROWTH. THIS ALL COULD CONGEAL AND GIVE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT VIA A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE 5 PM TO 9 PM
TIMEFRAME ALONG AND EAST OF A CVG TO CMH LINE. THIS AREA HAS THE
LARGEST DCAPE POOL FOR SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO WORK FROM AS
WELL AS MLCAPE...BUT IS DISPLACED EAST A BIT FROM DEEPER SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER /30KTS/ THAT A
BOWING SEGMENT OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SPC GRABBED A PART OF
THIS AREA IN RECENT SWOMCD WITH MARGINAL CONFIDENCE FOR A
WATCH...SO RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED UPSTREAM FOR
GROWTH/ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT TOTALLY
ZERO...LOW LEVEL SHEAR VIA A PERSISTENT SWLY /MOIST/ LLJ IS
KEEPING 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 20KTS...BUT FLOW IS RATHER
UNIDIRECTIONAL. A LOCAL BACKING TO SLY WOULD MAKE THINGS MORE
INTERESTING BUT THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN DOESN`T REALLY SUPPORT
THAT - SO OVERALL TOR THREAT IS NOT HIGH PER CURRENT
ANALYSIS/FORECASTS. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTBY...HAIL WOULD BE AN
OUTLIER GIVEN THE MOIST ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WE/VE
BEEN DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT DECAYING MCS MOST OF
THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT...STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AS DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. EXPECT...AT SOME POINT...A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO BEGIN TO CONGEAL/INCREASE ALONG THIS FEATURE AS WELL
BUT GIVEN ITS EXPECTED ARRIVAL THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECTING SEVERE
THREAT TO REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL WITH THIS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WITH ANY LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED...AND TONIGHT
WILL BE NO EXCEPTION BUT THE LARGE POOL OF MINIMUM INSTABILITY
OVER INDIANA IS GOING TO REALLY WORK AGAINST SOMETHING REALLY
TAKING OFF. WHILE CAM RUNS /AS MENTIONED ABOVE/ ARE REALLY ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...STUCK WITH
STRONGER FORCING /RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET AND INCREASING PV
AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE/ TO DRIVE HIGHER RAIN/STORM
CHANCES LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A CONTINUATION OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STILL THINK /GIVEN MOIST PWATS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS/
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES
WILL BE A PROBLEM WITH ANY STORMS THAT LINGER OVER AN AREA MORE
THAN AN HOUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SECONDARY WAVE ALOFT FINALLY ESCORTS THE TROUGH AXIS OUT OF THE
AREA TOMORROW AND THIS ALLOWS A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. MAY BE A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FEATURE BY MID AFTERNOON...SO CARRIED THIS CHANCE FROM
NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF THIS
FRONT AND MAKES FOR A COMFORTABLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 50S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
JUNE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY
NIGHT. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUESDAY. SO TOOK
A CONSENSUS FORECAST AND RAISED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST. THE
ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST WITH THE RETURN PCPN...BUT THE REMAINING
MODELS KEEP THE FA DRY...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE MAJORITY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WRMFNT DEVELOPS OVER THE OH VLY...
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNTIL STABLE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SCT TSRA. THU NGT INTO FRI...H5 WAVE SWINGS UP THE OH VLY
ADDING EXTRA LIFT AND IT DRIVES A CDFNT ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
CHC OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20-25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL A STUBBORN MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK OVER MOST OF THE
AREA ALTHOUGH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END. WATCHING FOR
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THINKING THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AROUND THE EASTERN
TAF SITES AS THAT AREA HAS SEEN THE MOST DAYTIME HEATING SO FAR.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL COME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING BRIEF YET
STRONG SHIFTING WINDS AS THEY PASS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...KURZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...USHERING IN A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA HAS BEEN PUSHING VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE AIRMASS JUST OUT AHEAD OF IT REMAINS AT
LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...BUT THE INSTABILITY DOES DROP OFF
FARTHER EAST ACROSS OHIO. THE ORIENTATION OF THE 20-30 KNOT 0-3 KM
SHEAR VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...BUT AS IT
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
WEAKENING IN THE STORM STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...THINK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST OUR WESTERN AREAS LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT THINK SEVERE THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS PCPN WORKS EAST...DEBRIS
CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR FA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.
THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW FAST WE ARE ABLE TO RECOVER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND DESTABILIZE. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE
SUGGESTING ML CAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE LATER TODAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE RAP IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE UNSTABLE...BUT LIKELY OVERDONE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.
INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL COUPLE WITH A
PERSISTENT 20-30 KNOT 850 MB JET TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME SOME OF THE POSSIBLE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO STILL RESULT
IN SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WITH CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT UP INTO OUR AREA AND PWS AROUND 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW ON BOTH THE DEGREE OF
DEVELOPMENT AND THE PLACEMENT.
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO MID 80S
SOUTHEAST...BUT THESE TOO WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AS IT
PUSHES UP INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE AND BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WOULD EXPECT DAMAGING WIND TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND START TO LOSE
OUR INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS OUR AREA.
COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WILL THEN
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID
WEEK...THEN THEY START TO DIVERGE ON THE NEXT UPR LVL LOW IN TERMS
OF STRENGTH AND SPEED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE USED A BLEND
OF MODEL RUNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SIDED WITH THE 31.12Z ECMWF
AND HPC THEREAFTER.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RESULT ONCE AGAIN IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE EAST AS A WEAK MID LVL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE FUNNELING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS MAY AFFECT WESTERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING BRIEF YET STRONG SHIFTING
WINDS AS THESE STORMS PASS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND STORMS EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...LATTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
337 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...USHERING IN A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA HAS BEEN PUSHING VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE AIRMASS JUST OUT AHEAD OF IT REMAINS AT
LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...BUT THE INSTABILITY DOES DROP OFF
FARTHER EAST ACROSS OHIO. THE ORIENTATION OF THE 20-30 KNOT 0-3 KM
SHEAR VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...BUT AS IT
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
WEAKENING IN THE STORM STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...THINK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST OUR WESTERN AREAS LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT THINK SEVERE THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS PCPN WORKS EAST...DEBRIS
CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR FA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.
THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW FAST WE ARE ABLE TO RECOVER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND DESTABILIZE. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE
SUGGESTING ML CAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE LATER TODAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE RAP IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE UNSTABLE...BUT LIKELY OVERDONE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.
INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL COUPLE WITH A
PERSISTENT 20-30 KNOT 850 MB JET TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME SOME OF THE POSSIBLE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO STILL RESULT
IN SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WITH CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT UP INTO OUR AREA AND PWS AROUND 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW ON BOTH THE DEGREE OF
DEVELOPMENT AND THE PLACEMENT.
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO MID 80S
SOUTHEAST...BUT THESE TOO WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AS IT
PUSHES UP INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE AND BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WOULD EXPECT DAMAGING WIND TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND START TO LOSE
OUR INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS OUR AREA.
COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WILL THEN
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID
WEEK...THEN THEY START TO DIVERGE ON THE NEXT UPR LVL LOW IN TERMS
OF STRENGTH AND SPEED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE USED A BLEND
OF MODEL RUNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SIDED WITH THE 31.12Z ECMWF
AND HPC THEREAFTER.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RESULT ONCE AGAIN IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE EAST AS A WEAK MID LVL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A MODIFICATION IN THE AIRMASS.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE FUNNELING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFICULT WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA
WITH SLOW PROGRESSION LIKELY NOT TO YIELD TSRA UNTIL NEAR 10Z AT
KDAY/11Z KCVG AND KLUK. STORMS HAVE HISTORY OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN. SO WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PRECIP TIMING. AFTER ABOUT 14Z WEST AND
16Z EAST...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED UNTIL THE
MAIN ACTIVITY WITH THE PREFRONTAL STORMS APPROACHES. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE...WITH EVEN IFR IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JDR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
201 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SECTOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AS CONVECTION OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WINDS
DOWN FOR THIS NT.
PREV DISCN...
18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST ROUGHLY AROUND THE IN/OH BORDER AREA SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. OUT AHEAD OF THAT GENERAL AREA A FEW DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED TO THE EAST. PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE NEAR
TERM REVOLVE AROUND THIS EVENING/S CONVECTION AS WELL AS
REDEVELOPING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
THIS EVENING...TOUGH CALL ON EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE PRECIP
WITH A READILY-APPARENT DECAYING MCV PUSHING E/NE-WARD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KY. LATEST RAP SEEMS TO HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A HANDLE ON THE
SHEAR ASSOC WITH IT...WITH NEAR 40KTS OF SHEAR DEPICTED ACROSS THE
SW OHIO AND NC KY AREAS. FURTHER EAST OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES...SHEAR
IS APPRECIABLY LOWER AND ONLY AROUND 15-20KTS. LATEST RAP RUNS ALSO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/SHEAR THE VORT MAX ASSOC WITH THE MCV...WITH
SHEAR VALUES ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 25KTS NEAR PERRY CO OH...AND
LESS POINTS EAST AND SOUTH OF THAT...BY 00Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASING AS WELL AND BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AS USUAL...WHICH
SHOULD SPELL A DECREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS. ALL IN ALL...DO
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS STAND A DECENT CHANCE OF
REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES AND PARTICULARLY THE SE OHIO ZONES. WHILE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF ANY SEVERE WX
REMAINS WEST.
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP GENERAL INHERITED FORECAST AND DRY OUT MOST
LOCATIONS BTWN 03Z-06Z. DID ELECT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
FAR NW ZONES HOWEVER...ON THE NOSE OF A 850MB JET. PREV FCST LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER BL WINDS OVERNIGHT PROGGED AFTER 06Z SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION BUT THE USUAL SPOTS SUCH AS EKN WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE REDUCED VIS NEAR DAWN.
TOMORROW...INHERITED MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S LOWLANDS LOOK
GOOD. PRIMARY FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZED LARGE-SCALE LIFT
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD FRONT STILL
WELL TO THE WEST. LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE MORNING HOURS
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUCH. BTWN 18Z-21Z...GOOD
DYNAMICS ARRIVE TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...OVER IN/WEST OH SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS AREA SHOULD SERVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BY 21Z...WITH SUPERCELLS A POSSIBILITY. THIS AREA WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT RIGHT-MOVER MOTION WOULD TAKE THESE
STORMS IN AN MORE E/NE DIRECTION AROUND 30KTS. AGAIN AS WITH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE BULK OF SVR WX SHOULD REMAIN WEST BUT WITH BETTER
SHEAR OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF SVR WX OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES EXISTS PRIMARILY LATE AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVE HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
THINKING MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE DUE TO
TIMING...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE DUE TO
LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE. DECENT CAPE...GENERALLY 1500-2000
J/KG...ALONG WITH 30-40 KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH WINDS...AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO HELP TO MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. SO FOR NOW...ITS A WAIT AND SEE
SCENARIO TO SEE IF ANY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS ARE ABLE TO
LINE UP...BUT LOOKING LIKE BULK OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA. AS OF RIGHT NOW...SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA...WITH CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER...AND A 5 PERCENT PROB OUTLOOK
FOR SEVERE.
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL READINGS. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL PUSH
EAST ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
DIURNAL IN NATURE...WILL ALSO RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY...
THRU 12Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...GENERAL VFR WITH
WIDESPREAD ALTOCU. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...LOCALLY IFR FOG
POSSIBLE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING EKN.
AFTER 12Z...VFR DAY EXPECTED...WITH MORNING ALTOCU AND THEN
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HIGH BASED CU. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING BUT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER 00Z...BAND OF CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER BY 06Z SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF BAND OF CONVECTION LATER PART OF
PERIOD MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/01/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND IN POST-RAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1033 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING OVER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND THE RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE
THE UPR LVL VORT MAX A LTL OVER HALFWAY THRU THE CWFA. THE LEADING
CONVECTION IS ABOUT THRU THE SE CORNER OF THE FA (UNION NC)...AND
BEHIND THIS...VERY LITTLE IS SEEN ON RADAR. LOOKING AT THE 12Z
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS...IT SEEMS THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING ATOP A MOIST AIR MASS AND CONTINUED SWLY 850 MB
FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...WILL KEEP A DECENT CHC POP THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE COOLED FROM THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO MAINLY UPR 60S
ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...AND THEY WILL PROBABLY HOLD AROUND THOSE
READINGS OVERNIGHT.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
ALONG WITH DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE MAY WELL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP OR WASHES OUT. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH A SHEAR AXIS OUT OVER INTERSTATE 77 WHERE THE BEST CHC OF
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A RELATIVELY LOW DIURNAL TEMP TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY MON NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDING SHOWING GOOD MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION ON TUE IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW. THEREFORE...I KEPT THE
FORECAST MOSTLY DRY MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
UPSLOPE PRECIP IN THE MTNS.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFT EAST. THE CENTER OF
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WED WITH ITS SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO JUICY CONDITIONS WITH PW VALUES REACHING NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY WED
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATES THAT CAPPING INVERSION WILL WEAKEN
AND SURFACE TO 700 MB LAYER WILL BECOME SATURATED. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK SBCAPE OF 300-500 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT.
HENCE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF NOON SUNDAY...AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO
THE EC.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING
START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE
TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROF EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...PROXIMITY TO A BUILDING TROPICAL
FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL YIELD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THUS...EXPECTING INCREASES IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MARINE AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THEREFORE WENT WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON A DIURNAL HEATING TYPE PATTERN.
WOULD LIKE TO NOTE THAT POPS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND COULD CHANGE AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TROPICAL
FORMATION...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE.
WITH RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THERE IS BROAD MODEL
DISCONTINUITY REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE GFS
SEEMS TO TREND WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GULF MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN WEAKENING FURTHER AS
ITS REMNANTS CROSS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WHERE IT DISSIPATES. THE
ECMWF TAKES THE SAME TRACK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT KEEPS A MUCH
MORE ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF SHORE NEAR SAVANNAH
GEORGIA...AND BRUSHING THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE EJECTING OUT TO SEA WITH THE
UPPER TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF DECAYING CONVECTION HAS ENTERED THE KCLT
AREA...WITH A LIGHT STEADY RAIN OCCURRING. SOME ACTIVITY STILL TO
THE SW HEADING TOWARD THE TERMINAL. GIVEN THAT KCLT IS NOT AS
UNSTABLE AS AREAS TO THE SW...NOT CONFIDENT THE SOLID LINE WILL
REACH THE TERMINAL...SO WILL CONTINUE A TEMPO FOR TS FOR FIRST THREE
HOURS OF THE TAF. THEREAFTER...THE MOIST AIR MASS LOOKS TO SUPPORT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...BUT MOSTLY IN FORM OF SHRA. SO
WILL NOT MENTION TS OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE IS HOW MUCH STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WET GROUND. GENERALLY NEED MORE
CLEARING ALOFT TO GET WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. FOR NOW...I WILL KEEP
THE DETERIORATING CIG TRENDS...BUT THESE MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTN. WILL GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA
FOR THE AFTN HOURS TO MATCH THE LIKELY POP GRIDS. WINDS ARE FAIRLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE WNW FROM OUTFLOW...BUT SHUD TURN BACK OUT OF THE SW
BEHIND NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN IN
THAT GENERAL DIRECTION THRU MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION TURNING INTO DOMINATED STRATIFORM RAIN REGION
BEHIND MAY CELLS TO THE WEST OF KGSP/KGMU. MAINLY A LIGHT STEADY
RAIN OR SHRA AT THE UPSTATE TERMINALS...BUT WILL KEEP A VCTS FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS. SIMILARLY AT KHKY. AT KAVL...COVERAGE MAINLY IN FORM
OF SHRA. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING MAINLY SHRA WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TS POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HITTING STRATUS AND SOME FOG FAIRLY
HARD LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH DRYING
ALOFT. FOR NOW...I WILL KEEP THE DETERIORATING CIG TRENDS...BUT
THESE MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AROUND
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE PIEDMONT WHERE I WILL GO WITH VCTS. AT
KAVL...WILL GO WITH PROB30 FOR TS.
OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING UNDER HIGH PRES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY OVER THE SFC HIGH MID TO LATE
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 83% HIGH 90% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 88% MED 66% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 81% HIGH 86% HIGH 84% HIGH 100%
KHKY LOW 32% LOW 47% MED 63% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 75% HIGH 82% HIGH 84% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 75% MED 75% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND REMAINING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF LATE AFTERNOON...SO FAR EVERYTHING APPEARS IN ORDER...WITH A
FLAT CU FIELD OVER OUR EASTERN FA...AND AN ENHANCED CU FIELD FROM
CENTRAL GA NEWD UP THROUGH THE WRN SC UPSTATE AND AND SW MOUNTAINS
OF NC. THE HRRR CONVECTIVE RUNNING MODEL INDICATES THAT SECONDARY
AREA CU FIELD...TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AS PERHAPS A GENESIS FOR
SHOWERS OR TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. CURRENT POPS ARE
ESTABLISHED NICELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS UNDER THIS RIDGE CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LIMITED CAPE...BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY IN SW PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FEATURE LOW END COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVENING IN THE FAR SRN PIEDMONT AND ALSO IN THE
EXTREME SRN MTNS WHERE SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST.
PLUS...REGIONAL RADARS ALREADY HAVE DECENT COVERAGE FROM THE TN
VALLEY TO THE AL/GA BORDER FROM AN ERN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
FETCH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MORE SOLID SCT COVERAGE IN THE
SW MTNS THROUGH EVENING.
THE APPROACHING...BUT DAMPENING...UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN START TO
BRING SOME UPPER FORCING TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. 250
MB WIND DIVERGENCE ARRIVES OVER THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN
LOBES OF WEAK 850 TO 500 MB DPVA SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AT LOW LEVELS...IMPROVING SRLY FLOW ALONG WITH
THE IMPROVED GULF MOISTURE TAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL W AND
LIKELY E BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. FLOW IN THE SFC TO 6 KM LAYER SUNDAY
APPEARS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SW WITH ONLY LIMITED SPEED
SHEAR. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY SUB 6 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT. THE SEVERE WX THREAT
THUS APPEARS QUITE LIMITED AS WE STAY SOUTH OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FEATURE A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE ON
TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MUCH MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT INTO MON PUSHING
A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MTNS SUN NIGHT AND BECOMES STATIONARY IN
THE VICINITY OF I-85 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY. THE FRONT THEN PUSHES OFF
TO FURTHER EAST MON NIGHT AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION RIDGING INTO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
OF HEAVIER PRECIP WILL OCCUR SUN NIGHT AS A LINE OF VORT MAX ALONG
WITH GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
REVEAL WEAK BUOYANCY ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNT FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE
AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS IN HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIP GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST OT EAST LATE MON AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY
AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE CANADIAN
HIGH CENTERED OVER QUEBEC RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW. THE
FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
WEAKENS AND SHIFT EAST. WITH INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE...HAVE
CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL STATES
FRI...PUSHING A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. MEANWHILE...MODELS AGREE THAT A TROPICAL
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NE ACROSS FL THU...AND OFF
THE SE COAST BY FRI. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT
FURTHER NE SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS ON FRI NIGHT/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 2-3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...STEADY SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW END
GUSTS WITH PEAK MIXING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT MOSTLY SCT VFR LEVEL
CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING...BUT WITH CIGS FILLING BACK IN AND LOWERING
FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SURGES IN ON IMPROVING
SRLY 850 MB FLOW. THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE MOS ON
A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z INTO IFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL BE ADVERTISED. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE W SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TSRA CHANCES
IMPROVING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
W OF A KAVL TO KAND LINE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH MTN
SHOWERS LIKELY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. SURGING SRLY FLOW MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COVERAGE OF THE SHRA AND VCTS WILL
THEN EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS. EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY
SRLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT IN MONDAY. GRADUAL DRYING UNDER HIGH PRES IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH CONDITIONS THEN BECOMING
UNSETTLED AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 84%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 78% HIGH 86%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 90%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 93%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 88% MED 75% HIGH 88%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE LINE OF TS BACK
OVER MISSOURI AT ISSUANCE. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IT WILL
MAKE IT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY DAYBREAK...THOUGH IT WILL BE A
PITTANCE OF ITS CURRENT STATE. WILL PREVAIL RA AND VCTS STARTING
AT 12Z FOR KCKV...AND THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING KBNA. THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE REVOLVES AROUND
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING.
FROPA SHOULD HAPPEN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS CYCLE WITH ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND TS...SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER 02Z. WILL HOLD ONTO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EVENT AS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE BOARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY.
27
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/
UPDATE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
MO WHEN IT APPROACHES MID TN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WE HAVE
20 POPS NORTHWEST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS AND NEW SHORT RANGE MODELS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES. OTHER
ELEMENTS LOOK FINE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
13
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AT 19Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT PARIS TO BROWNWOOD TO
MIDLAND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO
ABOUT HUNTSVILLE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH TOWARD SE
TX OVERNIGHT. NAM 12 FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES APPROACHING
2.00 INCHES AT KCLL AND AROUND 1.8 INCHES AT KIAH WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD YIELD A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LESS CERTAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH AND TAPER TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
CENTRAL AND SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. THE RAP INITIALIZED
WELL SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RAP AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO TRINITY LINE. WILL REISSUE
THE HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY.
MOISTURE LEVELS WANE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY LOOKS NEUTRAL WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING
DURING SUNDAY AFTN. WILL TRIM POPS FOR SUNDAY AND END ALL RAIN
CHANCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS WARM ON SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS NEAR 90 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER EUROPEAN
GUIDANCE. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH SOME S/WV ENERGY ON FRIDAY AND DEEPER WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN LOOK SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF BUT WEAKER. THE GRIDS HAVE 20 POPS FOR FRI/SAT AND
FEEL THAT IS A GOOD PLACE TO START. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF MODELS
CAN BUILD A CONSENSUS FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO RELAX. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...DUE TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERN CENTERED SURFACE
RIDGING...WILL MAINTAIN A TAME MARITIME WIND FIELD.
GENERALLY...SEAS HEIGHTS WILL BE AN AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF A LATE WEEK FAR OFFSHORE SWELL. THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF AN EASTERN GULF
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 90 66 91 70 / 60 20 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 91 67 92 70 / 40 30 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 87 74 87 76 / 20 30 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...GALVESTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
704 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MUCH OF
THIS MORNING. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND
BRING MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE STRATUS...ALTHOUGH VERY
PATCHY...IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE COLD FRONT HAS
ENTERED THE BIG COUNTRY. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...THE RUC BRINGS THE
FRONT NEAR A MERTZON TO BROWNWOOD LINE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE
ANTICIPATE MOST THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BY 18Z...AS MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE
DOMINATE. BEHIND THE FRONT...PLAN FOR GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
IN ADDITIONS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO...BE
CAUTIOUS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY DURING TAKEOFF AND LANDING.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND
CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
NEAR OUR INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...INDICATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES MAINLY IN THE 2000 TO
3000 J/KG RANGE. ALSO...FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW. MY ONLY CONCERN IS
HOW MUCH OF A CAP WE WILL NEED TO OVERCOME TO INITIATE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 12 DEGREES
CELSIUS...MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS I WOULD LIKE IT TO BE
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO OFTEN THE CAP OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS IS STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT AND DIFFICULT TO BREAK.
SO...I DECIDED TO MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF OUR
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE CAP BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THE CAP AT 700
MB DOES DIMINISH BY AROUND 00Z. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL STILL BE IN
THE 2000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU USE.
SO...WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE LIKELY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. BY THAT
TIME...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR OUR INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. AGAIN...THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING MAY BE SEVERE...WITH THE THREATS REMAINING THE SAME. IN
ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...AND RANGE FROM AROUND ONE AND A QUARTER INCHES TO
ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THUS...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
HUBER
LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MID-DAY SUNDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES...WITH OUR CWA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE 31C ISOTHERM WILL BE ENCROACHING ON OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ENVELOPING MOST OF THE
WESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO TRIPLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN CWA BOTH DAYS. DEGRADATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINNING MID-WEEK WILL SHIFT THE
850MB THERMAL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA AND ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO DIP SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY
AND ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT ANY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY TROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 88 62 87 66 92 / 30 20 5 10 10
SAN ANGELO 92 64 91 69 94 / 20 30 10 10 10
JUNCTION 94 68 92 68 93 / 20 40 20 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1155 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND
THE NAM HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO FAR...SO WILL TREND
AVIATION FORECASTS TOWARD THE NAM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING LOW
CLOUDS IN EARLY WHICH WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...AND POSSIBLY
FARTHER NORTH...SO WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO FOR LOW CLOUDS AT
KABI...AND A PREVAILING GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSJT FOR 3 TO 5
HOURS IS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN BEGINNING TO MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH KABI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THE REST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. MORE REFINEMENT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST CAN BE
MADE IN FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF
SITES. THESE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT BEFORE 18Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS WELL...LIKELY AFFECTING KABI
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BY 15Z...KSJT BY 18Z...AND SOUTHERN SITES
AFTER 18Z. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED VCTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SITES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/
TONIGHT...
INSTABILITY WAS HIGH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH RAP ML CAPES
EXCEEDING 5000 J/KG. A STRONG CAP HOWEVER WAS PREVENTING STORM
DEVELOPMENT. I DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN HASKELL
AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WHERE A CUMULUS FIELD WAS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN...LIKE YESTERDAY...IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...THEY COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO IS ALSO NOT OUT OF QUESTION WITH VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT.
OTHERWISE A WARM NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO FLOW
FROM THE GULF MEXICO. STRATUS RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE
HILL COUNTRY. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN PICKS UP TO 45-50 KTS
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. PERSISTENCE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THINGS SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY QUITE. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES...SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE FORCING
FROM THE FRONT...REALIZING THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE A
PROBLEM. THE CIN VALUES ARE REASONABLE...HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
INSTABILITY TO BUILD...BUT NOT TOO MUCH TO KEEP ANY OF IT FROM
BEING RELEASED. SHEAR WILL NOT BE SPECTACULAR...BUT WITH 30 KTS
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
LACKLUSTER...ONLY MAYBE 10 KTS...SO THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE
LIMITED...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF A STORM CAN STAY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY FOR LONG ENOUGH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
BROWNWOOD...TO SAN ANGELO...TO OZONA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A LITTLE FROM FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SOAR WITH THE RIDGE...WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE SUGGESTING THAT READINGS AT LEAST
NEAR THE 100 DEGREE MARK ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA.
THE GFS WEAKENS THE RIDGE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK...AND
TRIES ANOTHER FRONT AND CONVECTION INTO THE ARE FOR THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT RIDGE...AND DELAYS
ANY CONVECTION TIL FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT...THINK KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW IS PROBABLY THE BEST OPTION...AND LET THE
UNCERTAINTIES SETTLE A LITTLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 73 90 65 89 66 / 10 20 30 10 10
SAN ANGELO 74 93 71 91 69 / 5 30 30 20 10
JUNCTION 73 94 70 92 68 / 5 30 40 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1040 AM PDT Sat Jun 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Most of the region will experience dry conditions today. The best
chance of showers, however, will be near the Canadian border this
afternoon as Sundays upper low approaches. This relatively strong
storm system will bring a cool- down with showers...thunderstorms and
breezy conditions for Sunday and Monday. The greatest threat of
precipitation will be across the eastern third of Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle Sunday. A drying and warming period will
greet the remainder of the new work week with temperatures
rising into the upper 70s and 80s by Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Water vapor satellite imagery at 8 am showed a well
defined vort max over Vancouver Island moving into southern
British Columbia. Abundant mid and high clouds associated with
this wave will continue to stream into the Inland Northwest today
and sky cover has been adjusted upward a bit for the morning
hours mainly areas along and north of I-90 where mid level clouds
are more extensive. Latest HRRR falls in line with general model
consensus of showers developing over the mountains of the East
Slopes of the Cascades after about noon or 1 pm...and the north
portion of the Okanogan Highlands after 2 or 3 pm...with the bulk
of the showers north of the Canadian Border. With the best
instability and lift associated with this wave passing over
southern BC this idea makes sense. GFS and NAM show also show CAPE
values of around 200 J/KG which could result in a stray
thunderstorm. With low confidence of any lightning materializing
will leave out of forecast through the afternoon. The remainder of
the area is expected to remain dry through the afternoon. Made
some minor POP and weather adjustments based on above reasoning.
JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An upper level trough will spread an increase in mid and
high clouds over the region today...with showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly north of the area in southern British Columbia
although a few showers are expected along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Showers chances will increase over northern Washington
overnight and across the remainder of Eastern Washington and North
Idaho Sunday morning along with a slight chance of thunderstorms as
mid level moisture and instability increases. Most of the showers
through 18z Sunday will have CIGS 7-10k ft MSL with CIGS remaining
VFR at the TAF sites. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 71 49 64 48 71 51 / 0 30 70 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 71 46 61 46 69 47 / 0 30 80 70 30 10
Pullman 71 45 65 45 69 47 / 0 20 60 60 20 10
Lewiston 78 53 73 52 75 53 / 0 10 50 50 10 10
Colville 74 46 69 47 77 49 / 10 50 60 50 20 10
Sandpoint 70 43 63 45 67 45 / 10 40 80 70 40 20
Kellogg 68 46 61 46 63 46 / 0 20 80 80 40 20
Moses Lake 76 49 76 50 81 52 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 76 52 72 53 79 54 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Omak 73 48 72 48 78 50 / 10 40 20 20 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
827 AM PDT Sat Jun 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Most of the region will experience dry conditions today. The best
chance of showers, however, will be near the Canadian border this
afternoon as Sundays upper low approaches. This relatively strong
storm system will bring a cool- down with showers...thunderstorms and
breezy conditions for Sunday and Monday. The greatest threat of
precipitation will be across the eastern third of Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle Sunday. A drying and warming period will
greet the remainder of the new work week with temperatures
rising into the upper 70s and 80s by Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Water vapor satellite imagery at 8 am showed a well
defined vort max over Vancouver Island moving into southern
British Columbia. Abundant mid and high clouds associated with
this wave will continue to stream into the Inland Northwest today
and sky cover has been adjusted upward a bit for the morning
hours mainly areas along and north of I-90 where mid level clouds
are more extensive. Latest HRRR falls in line with general model
consensus of showers developing over the mountains of the East
Slopes of the Cascades after about noon or 1 pm...and the north
portion of the Okanogan Highlands after 2 or 3 pm...with the bulk
of the showers north of the Canadian Border. With the best
instability and lift associated with this wave passing over
southern BC this idea makes sense. GFS and NAM show also show CAPE
values of around 200 J/KG which could result in a stray
thunderstorm. With low confidence of any lightning materializing
will leave out of forecast through the afternoon. The remainder of
the area is expected to remain dry through the afternoon. Made
some minor POP and weather adjustments based on above reasoning.
JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs. An
approaching upper level trough will bring thickening and lowering
clouds, with a chance for showers/t-storms for the Cascades and
northern mountains by Saturday afternoon and evening. Primary
shower chances are expected to remain away from TAF sites until
after 12Z Sunday...but some could be found in the vicinity of KEAT
after 06Z Sunday. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 71 49 64 48 71 51 / 0 30 70 60 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 71 46 61 46 69 47 / 0 30 80 70 30 10
Pullman 71 45 65 45 69 47 / 0 20 60 60 20 10
Lewiston 78 53 73 52 75 53 / 0 10 50 50 10 10
Colville 74 46 69 47 77 49 / 10 50 60 50 20 10
Sandpoint 70 43 63 45 67 45 / 10 40 80 70 40 20
Kellogg 68 46 61 46 63 46 / 0 20 80 80 40 20
Moses Lake 76 49 76 50 81 52 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 76 52 72 53 79 54 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Omak 73 48 72 48 78 50 / 10 40 20 20 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
UPR PATTERN ACRS NOAM WL TRANSITION BACK INTO A MORE TYPICAL
EARLY SUMMER REGIME AS DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE. IN ITS WAKE...A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND WEAKER
BAND OF WESTERLIES WL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN CONUS. THOUGH INITIALLY
PROGRESSIVE...WEAK UPR TROF WL EVENTUALLY SET-UP OVER THE NRN
PLAINS OR WESTERN LAKES RGN.
THE WARM AND RATHER HUMID AIR STILL LINGERING ACRS THE AREA TDA
WL BE REPLACED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING UPR TROF. TEMPERATURES WL SETTLE BACK TO BLO NORMAL
FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES TO PICK UP SOME PCPN...SO AMOUNTS WL PROBABLY END UP
NR NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL FINALLY END THE
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
NOTABLE INSTABLITY THAT HAS LINGERED ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN CONCERT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOX VALLY NORTHEAST TOWARD ESCANABA MICHIGAN.
DESPITE FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 8500 FEET AGL..ONLY
HAVE HAD A COUPLE REPORTS OF SOME PEA SIZE HAIL THUS FAR. WITH PW
VALUES STILL AROUND AN INCH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCEERS PRODUCING SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 18Z HRRR AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS AND NAM...FOCUS THE BEST LIFT AND ASSOCIATED QPF OVER
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THUS HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF
AND POP ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS EVENING. AS UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
AND ATTENDAND SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO STEADLIY
PROGRESS EASTWARD. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR...ANTICIPATE
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OF THE FOX VALLEY BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOME RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES UNTIL ABOUT 12Z. RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALLY DOES NOT GET SCOURED OUT UNTIL AFTER
ABOUT 16Z SO HAVE SLOWED CLEARING A FEW HOURS ON SUNDAY. BRISK
NORTWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SWD FM CANADA WL DOMINATE THE START OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD. THAT WL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WL FALL WELL BLO NORMAL AT NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD CHC OF FROST ACRS THE N SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SOME OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. MONDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD...BUT AT LEAST PATCHY FROST WL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE N. WL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED A FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINE FOR THE N FOR SUN NGT...WL HOLD OFF ISSUING THAT NOW AS
LATER FORECASTS HAVE A BETTER CHC OF DISCERNING EXACTLY HOW FAR S
AND E TO TAKE THE HEADLINE.
THE NEXT UPR TROF EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES ACRS THE NRN CONUS
WL BE APPROACHING THE AREA TUE. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS DROVE
PCPN WELL E INTO THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. BUT IT SEEMS LIKE
DRY AIR WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DELAY
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN AT LEAST A LITTLE. SO OPTED TO
KEEP THE MORNING DRY AND THEN LIMIT POPS TO ABOUT THE WRN 1/4 OF
THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTN.
THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WL COME MID-WK AS THE UPR TROF CROSSES THE
RGN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTCENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABLITY EXISTS
OVER THIS AREA...THUS EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE THE MOST ROBUST
IN A CORRIDOR FROM OSHKOSH TO NEAR GREEN BAY TO MARINETTE. SOME OF
THE THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMTER AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GENERALLY VFR
CIGS EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE MVFR CIGS AND VISIBLITIES
ARE LIKELY EXPECIALLY AT OSH...ATW AND GRB TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME WEAKER AND MORE
SCATTERED AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH IN AFTER 15Z
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
218 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY FILLING WITH THE
MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER ROTATING EAST ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST WI WITH A COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WI. STRONGER
CONVECTION WAS FIRING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OVER EASTERN WI IN AN
AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINT/INSTABILITY AXIS AND 25-35KT 0-3KM BULK
SHEAR. MEANWHILE...RADAR MOSAIC WAS ALSO SHOWING WEAKER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FROM MN ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STEEPER LOW-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE
FILLING CLOSED LOW. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING THIS AREA IN A ZONE OF VERY
WEAK BULK SHEAR...SO JUST EXPECTING MOSTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR THIS CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TAKES
PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR
A DRY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVERHEAD FOR A CLEAR/COOL/CALM SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR AREAS
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE
NEARLY SATURATED GROUND AND THE FACT THE HIGH IS OVERHEAD FOR CALM
WINDS...WAS THINKING SOME FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRYING DURING THE
DAYTIME SUNDAY AND THEN MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 3-5 DEGREE SPREAD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE FOG MENTION
OUT...BUT MAY BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY FOR A CONTINUED DRY BREAK FROM THE SOGGY CONDITIONS OF LATE.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A COUPLE WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY LITTLE CAPE/INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY THE
MODELS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MAINLY SHOWER CHANCES WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. APPEARS THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO BE MARKED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS COMING THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY
HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
UNTIL THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES IN TOWARD EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED THAT THE CHANCES OF A STORM HITTING A
TERMINAL IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME LOW END
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER THE WINDS SHIFT AND
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
WHAT REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE 01.05Z HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THE AREA WILL BE CLEAR OF ANY RAIN BY 12Z AND MAY NEED TO START
THE MORNING THAT WAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE 01.00Z NAM INDICATES THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE
UP TO 12 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL GET INTO THE DEFORMATION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UP GLIDE
ON THE 295K SURFACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH BETWEEN 200
AND 400 J/KG OF ML CAPE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP. AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL ALSO COME DOWN AND IF ANY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP A GOOD CORE ALOFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF THE CAPE...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIE
DOWN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING COMPLETELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF DRY
DAYS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS RIDGING THEN MOVES OFF AS ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN FOR AN EXTENDED TIME FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UNLIKE
THE PAST SYSTEM...THIS ONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NEARLY AS
MUCH HEAVY RAIN. THE 01.00Z GFS INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE INSTEAD
OF 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER AS WITH THE RECENT SYSTEM. ALSO...THE
01.00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL ACTUALLY BE
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ON TO THE NORTH. ALSO NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF THUNDER FROM THIS
SYSTEM. NEITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS SHOW HARDLY ANY CAPE OVER THE AREA
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND THUS CUT THE THUNDER PROBABILITIES BACK TO
JUST HAVE ISOLATED AT BEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS COMING THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY
HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
UNTIL THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES IN TOWARD EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED THAT THE CHANCES OF A STORM HITTING A
TERMINAL IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH SOME LOW END
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER THE WINDS SHIFT AND
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
THE RAINS FROM FRIDAY EVENING HAVE CAUSED SOME RESPONSE ON SOME
AREA RIVERS. RISES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON THE WHITEWATER
RIVER...CEDAR RIVER IN OSAGE AND THE ROOT RIVER. ENOUGH RAIN FELL
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA FOR
ADDITIONAL WITHIN BANK RISES TO OCCUR. EARLIER RAINS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI...BLACK...TREMPEALEAU
AND UPPER IOWA RIVERS NEAR OR OVER FLOOD STAGE. FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
648 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
WHAT REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE 01.05Z HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THE AREA WILL BE CLEAR OF ANY RAIN BY 12Z AND MAY NEED TO START
THE MORNING THAT WAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE 01.00Z NAM INDICATES THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE
UP TO 12 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL GET INTO THE DEFORMATION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UP GLIDE
ON THE 295K SURFACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH BETWEEN 200
AND 400 J/KG OF ML CAPE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP. AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL ALSO COME DOWN AND IF ANY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP A GOOD CORE ALOFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF THE CAPE...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIE
DOWN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING COMPLETELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF DRY
DAYS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS RIDGING THEN MOVES OFF AS ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN FOR AN EXTENDED TIME FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UNLIKE
THE PAST SYSTEM...THIS ONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NEARLY AS
MUCH HEAVY RAIN. THE 01.00Z GFS INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE INSTEAD
OF 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER AS WITH THE RECENT SYSTEM. ALSO...THE
01.00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL ACTUALLY BE
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ON TO THE NORTH. ALSO NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF THUNDER FROM THIS
SYSTEM. NEITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS SHOW HARDLY ANY CAPE OVER THE AREA
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND THUS CUT THE THUNDER PROBABILITIES BACK TO
JUST HAVE ISOLATED AT BEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A BROKEN DECK OF 3-5K DECK OF CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
BOTH TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER CEILINGS...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AND THE WINDS WILL JUST OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
THE RAINS FROM FRIDAY EVENING HAVE CAUSED SOME RESPONSE ON SOME
AREA RIVERS. RISES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON THE WHITEWATER
RIVER...CEDAR RIVER IN OSAGE AND THE ROOT RIVER. ENOUGH RAIN FELL
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA FOR
ADDITIONAL WITHIN BANK RISES TO OCCUR. EARLIER RAINS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI...BLACK...TREMPEALEAU
AND UPPER IOWA RIVERS NEAR OR OVER FLOOD STAGE. FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
321 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
WHAT REMAINS OF THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE 01.05Z HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THE AREA WILL BE CLEAR OF ANY RAIN BY 12Z AND MAY NEED TO START
THE MORNING THAT WAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE 01.00Z NAM INDICATES THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE
UP TO 12 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL GET INTO THE DEFORMATION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UP GLIDE
ON THE 295K SURFACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH BETWEEN 200
AND 400 J/KG OF ML CAPE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP. AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL ALSO COME DOWN AND IF ANY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP A GOOD CORE ALOFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOSS OF THE CAPE...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIE
DOWN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING COMPLETELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF DRY
DAYS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS RIDGING THEN MOVES OFF AS ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN FOR AN EXTENDED TIME FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UNLIKE
THE PAST SYSTEM...THIS ONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NEARLY AS
MUCH HEAVY RAIN. THE 01.00Z GFS INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE INSTEAD
OF 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER AS WITH THE RECENT SYSTEM. ALSO...THE
01.00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL ACTUALLY BE
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ON TO THE NORTH. ALSO NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF THUNDER FROM THIS
SYSTEM. NEITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS SHOW HARDLY ANY CAPE OVER THE AREA
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND THUS CUT THE THUNDER PROBABILITIES BACK TO
JUST HAVE ISOLATED AT BEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
LOCAL RADAR SHOWING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS NOW MOVED PAST
KRST BUT HAS YET TO IMPACT KLSE. WITH THE ACTIVITY SO CLOSE TO
KLSE PLAN TO START WITH A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THE ACTIVITY COMING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE CONVECTION INDICATE
CONDITIONS GO BACK UP TO VFR WITH EITHER A HIGH BROKEN CEILING OR
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO THE
POSITION OF SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER BOTH TAF SITES BY MID MORNING AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. WHAT SHOULD BE THE LAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP GENERATE SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. FOR
NOW...WILL SHOW THESE SHOWERS WITHOUT A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING SWINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY STILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND WITH THE COLD FRONT SO WILL CARRY A VCSH
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT EXPECTING THE SHOWERS WILL END SOONER
THAN THAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
THE RAINS FROM FRIDAY EVENING HAVE CAUSED SOME RESPONSE ON SOME
AREA RIVERS. RISES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON THE WHITEWATER
RIVER...CEDAR RIVER IN OSAGE AND THE ROOT RIVER. ENOUGH RAIN FELL
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA FOR
ADDITIONAL WITHIN BANK RISES TO OCCUR. EARLIER RAINS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI...BLACK...TREMPEALEAU
AND UPPER IOWA RIVERS NEAR OR OVER FLOOD STAGE. FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1201 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA...A COLD FRONT CATCHING UP TO THE DRY-LINE...AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG PER RAP ANALYSIS HAS
ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO OCCUR. THIS ROUND CONTAINS
MORE BOW ECHO SIGNATURES TO IT...THUS WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN.
SOME OF THE CELLS INITIALLY HAD GROWN QUITE TALL...RESULTING IN
LARGE HAIL...EVEN NEAR THE ROCHESTER AIRPORT. 0-1KM SHEAR NOW
RUNNING AROUND 25 KT...THUS POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ON INFLOW NOTCHES OF THE BOWS.
INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH NIGHT TIME
COOLING. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE TO COME IN ON ITS BACK SIDE AND ALSO
HELP TO PUT AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER. PER COLLABORATION WITH
SPC...MPX AND GRB...HAVE EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS IA. THIS WAS KICKING OFF CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA WHERE LAPS WAS PRODUCING AN AXIS OF
1000-1500J/KG 0-1KM MLCAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS RUNNING AROUND
65KT. CONVECTION...SOME SEVERE WITH INCREASING CAPE AND HIGHER-END
BULK SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ROTATES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
LOOK FOR THE CLOSED LOW TO FILL AS IT ROTATES INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR MORE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NAM INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE IN THE 150-300J/KG RANGE WITH ANY
DECENT BULK SHEAR SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN WI. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
65-70 DEGREE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TO THE 70-75 DEGREE
RANGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR A
MUCH DESERVED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A BIT ON THE COOLER THAN NORMAL SIDE THOUGH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS SLATED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THE LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. LEFT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR NOW
AND WILL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRYING
THINGS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
LOCAL RADAR SHOWING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS NOW MOVED PAST
KRST BUT HAS YET TO IMPACT KLSE. WITH THE ACTIVITY SO CLOSE TO
KLSE PLAN TO START WITH A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THE ACTIVITY COMING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE CONVECTION INDICATE
CONDITIONS GO BACK UP TO VFR WITH EITHER A HIGH BROKEN CEILING OR
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO THE
POSITION OF SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER BOTH TAF SITES BY MID MORNING AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. WHAT SHOULD BE THE LAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP GENERATE SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. FOR
NOW...WILL SHOW THESE SHOWERS WITHOUT A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING SWINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY STILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND WITH THE COLD FRONT SO WILL CARRY A VCSH
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT EXPECTING THE SHOWERS WILL END SOONER
THAN THAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE...RUNOFF IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS OF AN ISSUE GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERAL RIVERWAYS INCLUDING THE TURKEY...UPPER
IOWA...AND TREMPEALEAU STILL HAVE ONGOING FLOODING. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
940 AM MST SAT JUN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWING 1/2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
MATCHING SATELLITE SOUNDER ESTIMATES WELL. TEMPERATURE PROFILE
SUPPORTS 103-105 FOR AN AFTERNOON HIGH AT TIA SO NO UPDATES NEEDED
THERE. HRRR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1-2PM FOR CROSSING THE 100 THRESHOLD.
HIGH AMPLIFIES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AS WE SEE WEAK
TROUGHINESS NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A STRONG LATE SEASON SYSTEM NEAR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE BRINGING TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW OF THE WEAKER
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ECMWF AND LATEST NAMDNG5 STILL DIRTY UP THE NORTHERN AXIS OF
MEXICAN/DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE EXPECT ENOUGH OF THIS
TO SPILL OVER INTO OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS TO PUSH OUR CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE INTO THE ISOLATED RANGE EMPHASIZING MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
AS THIS HAPPENS A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT DOWN THE COAST WILL
BRING SOME ENERGY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK
CUT-OFF LINGERS MUCH OF THE WEEK WEST OF US AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.
ULTIMATELY IT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS THIS HAPPENS THERE WON`T BE MUCH
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR IT TO WORK WITH...BUT A FEW MOUNTAIN BUILDUPS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SKC-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU SUNDAY MORNING
OR 02/16Z. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING FURTHER EAST IN NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH FAIR TO
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.CLIMATE...THE MONTH OF MAY 2013 IS THE 10TH WARMEST MAY ON RECORD
FOR TUCSON. MEANWHILE...SPRING 2013 IS THE 2ND WARMEST SPRING ON
RECORD.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A FEW ECHOES ON RADAR NEAR THE SRN BORDER OF
RIO GRANDE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...ONLY SEEING A FEW CU DEVELOPING ALONG
THE ERN MTS. THE LATEST NAM RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PCPN OVR THE
MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND EVEN KEEPS SOME LINGERING PCPN
OVR THE SWRN CO MTS LATE TONIGHT. THE HRRR KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA
DRY UNTIL AROUND 01Z AND THEN SHOWS A LITTLE QPF OVR THE SERN CORNER
OF THE STATE...WHICH THE GFS ALSO SHOWS. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS
FOCUSED OVR AND NR THE SRN MTS THIS EVENING AND ENDING LATE.
ON MONDAY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH AN UPR LOW MOVING
ACRS MT DURING THE DAY AND AN UPR RIDGE OVR MEXICO. THE SFC WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACRS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST OR SW AND IT LOOKS LIKE MANY AREAS COULD
SEE THE GUSTS REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AND WITH THE
WESTERLY FLOW THE DEW POINTS WILL DRY OUT AND RH VALUES WL DROP
BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THUS WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 222...225...227...233 AND 237 WHERE THE
FUELS ARE DRY AND THE WIND AND RH CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET. ZONE 221
LOOKED MARGINAL SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE WARNING FOR NOW...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED WITH LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS. IN
ZONE 225 IT LOOKED LIKE THE RH AND WIND CRITERIA WOULD BE MET MAINLY
BELOW 9000 FEET.
ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR MONDAY IT WHERE THE DRY LINE WILL SET UP. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 PUSHES THE DRY LINE WELL INTO KS MON
AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CO BORDER. THE NAM HAS SPOTTY PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NOTHING UNTIL
EVENING...WHEN IT TOO HAS SPOTTY QPF. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS BEING DRY...MEASURABLE PCPN WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND THE
MAIN THUNDERSTORMS THREATS WOULD BE WIND AND LIGHTNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
...CHANCE OF SOME STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE THREAT OF SVR WX RETURNING TO
THE AREA TUE AND WED. ON TUE...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVR THE
DAKOTAS...AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SET THE STAGE FOR SCT TS DEVELOPMENT TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVE. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVR THE ERN MTS AND THEN
SHIFT EWD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...IN THE 40 KT RANGE INCREASING TO 50 KTS OR
MORE BY EVE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WHICH WILL KEEP CAPE MAINLY IN THE 750-1200 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...GOOD FORCING ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE WILL HELP BUILD
A FEW STRONG STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SVR AS
THEY MOVE E OF I-25 AND INTO BETTER MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR WX WILL BE OVER THE SE PLAINS INCLUDING BACA AND
PROWERS COUNTIES...WHICH IS WHERE SPC CURRENTLY HAS THEIR SLIGHT
RISK OUTLOOK FOR DAY 3. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN ON
MONDAY...BUT STILL FAIRLY WARM FOR THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 80S.
WEDNESDAY COULD BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH SVR WX POTENTIAL...BUT IT
WILL ALSO BE A BIT TRICKY WITH THE PREVIOUS DAY`S CONVECTION
POSSIBLY HAVING AND EFFECT ON MORNING CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE ATMOSPHERE MIGHT BECOME TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT
STRONG CONVECTION. EARLIER RUNS OF THE NAM HAD HINTED AT THAT
POSSIBILITY...WHILE THE LATEST NAM SEEMS TO BE ALIGNING BETTER WITH
THE GFS IN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND AND MAINTAIN A THREAT
OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE OVR THE ERN
MTS...THEN SPREADING TO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE COULD BE A
BIT HIGHER WED...SO IF THERE IS A BIT OF SUN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
THIS COULD BRING THE THREAT OF SVR A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST WED
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THU-FRI. DECREASED SHEAR MAY LIMIT THE SVR THREAT...BUT WITH
SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE THE FOCUS MAY SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. NCEP MODELS INDICATE BETWEEN .25 AND .50 INCHES
OF LIQUID FOR THE WALDO SCAR TUE...ANOTHER .5 TO 1.0 INCHES
WED...AND STILL MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI. SO...THE
WALDO BURN SCAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TROUBLE SPOT AND WILL NEED
SOME EXTRA ATTENTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2013
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST DURING
THE DAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE DRY LINE JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS BORDER.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS...SOME GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE
PLAINS DURING MONDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ222-225-227-
233-237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)..
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
COAST...AND THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THE DEEPEST
TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WITH A DRIER TONGUE OF AIR STILL IN PLACE
FURTHER NORTH. 03/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WAS JUST FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO SAMPLE THIS DRIER AIR ABOVE 500MB COMPARED TO THE MUCH MORE
MOIST KMFL SOUNDING.
REST OF TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
ROLLING THIS LATE EVENING...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE WAS WELL-DEFINED THIS PAST AFTERNOON AND KEEP
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. AT LEAST
SOME INLAND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL 11PM-12AM BEFORE ENDING
AND LEAVING OUR REGION WITH A GENERALLY DRY REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL BE WARM AND QUITE MUGGY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FAILING TO FALL OUT OF THE 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY...A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST TO START THE WEEK AS WE BEGIN TO
FEEL SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH/WEAK LOW FORECAST TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. OVERALL...THE MAIN
INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK
NORTHWARD. LIKELY TO SEE MORE CLOUDS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL MAKE THE COLUMN FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL
THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEM
LOGICAL AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WHILE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIGH...THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS MAY BE DOWN
DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY...AS IT STANDS
NOW...MONDAY WILL BE JUST THE BEGINNING OF WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIMITED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA HAVE NOW GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOW STATUS...6SM BR
AT LAL/PGD...AND VCSH PGD/FMY/RSW. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
MON WITH VCSH AND TSRA UNDER LOWERING CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LOSE IT/S INFLUENCE OVER THE MARINE AREA
AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THIS TIME...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IT MAY PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
FOR NOW WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 86 73 86 / 20 70 40 60
FMY 73 87 73 87 / 20 70 60 70
GIF 73 88 71 88 / 50 70 40 70
SRQ 75 85 74 87 / 20 70 50 60
BKV 71 87 71 88 / 20 70 40 70
SPG 76 86 75 87 / 20 70 50 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
210 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...WITH THE REMAINING ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
MADE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE KEEPING THE CENTRAL GEORGIA
PORTIONS AS HIGH OR SLIGHTER HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED MONDAY...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER.
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
.ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 405 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
COLD FRONT STILL NORTHWEST OF THE STATE HOWEVER TWO LINES OF
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. LOCAL
WRF HAS PICKED UP ON BOTH LINES BUT WEAKENS THE EASTERN LINE AND
LETS THE WESTERN LINE DOMINATE. ALTHOUGH HRRR ISNT AS CLEAR WITH
BOTH LINES...IT DOES SHOW THE WEST LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE AND PUSH EAST. FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THESE TWO HI-RES
MODELS WITH THE FOCUS BECOMING ON THE WEST LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT SO HAVE SHOWN CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING WIND
AND HAIL. BEHIND THIS LINE...COULD STILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH ON FORECAST TONIGHT AS
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /INCLUDING HI RES/...SOME
SHOWING AN ACTIVE NIGHT WHILE OTHERS LIMITING ACTIVITY. HAVE
BASICALLY GONE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON MONDAY. WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT
THAT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
/2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE/ MONDAY AFTERNOON TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.
STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPS ARE NEAR A MODEL BLEND.
11
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1025 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING SO MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TO
REDUCE POPS FOR THE MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH...THE HRRR
INCREASES COVERAGE GREATLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST. SOME INDICATION IN
THE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST OUR POPS UPWARD
OVERNIGHT IN FUTURE UPDATES.
PORTIONS OF FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 4
INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS EVENT SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE
RECEIVED A REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED FLOODING AS
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
11
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTH GA MONDAY NIGHT...
WHERE IT MEANDERS... THEN DRIFTS BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SPREAD BACK
ACROSS NORTH GA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW BEGINS TO
ADVECT DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA WHILE A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO CARVE A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES DOWN THE MS VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND PROVIDES THE
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY... ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...THEN UP THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF CANADA HELPS HOLD THE SYSTEM OFF SHORE.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY... A CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY. AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PUSHES OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT AND
DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH IN ITS WAKE. DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND TRACK... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW AND MONITOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
39
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WIDE MIXTURE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. I EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BY 14-16Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING AFTER 18Z. AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH 00Z...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 14Z...BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 6KT OR LESS. AFTER 14Z WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 6-10KT
RANGE AND BECOME MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN DIRECTION.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 06-14Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 84 63 87 / 60 50 30 10
ATLANTA 69 84 68 86 / 80 30 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 80 60 81 / 50 40 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 66 84 62 88 / 50 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 72 87 70 89 / 40 40 30 10
GAINESVILLE 67 83 65 85 / 90 40 20 10
MACON 69 86 68 90 / 100 50 40 20
ROME 67 83 61 88 / 40 20 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 84 62 87 / 80 30 20 10
VIDALIA 72 86 71 89 / 70 60 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
801 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
..ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT STILL NORTHWEST OF THE STATE HOWEVER TWO LINES OF
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. LOCAL
WRF HAS PICKED UP ON BOTH LINES BUT WEAKENS THE EASTERN LINE AND
LETS THE WESTERN LINE DOMINATE. ALTHOUGH HRRR ISNT AS CLEAR WITH
BOTH LINES...IT DOES SHOW THE WEST LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE AND PUSH EAST. FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THESE TWO HI-RES
MODELS WITH THE FOCUS BECOMING ON THE WEST LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT SO HAVE SHOWN CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING WIND
AND HAIL. BEHIND THIS LINE...COULD STILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH ON FORECAST TONIGHT AS
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /INCLUDING HI RES/...SOME
SHOWING AN ACTIVE NIGHT WHILE OTHERS LIMITING ACTIVITY. HAVE
BASICALLY GONE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON MONDAY. WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT
THAT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
/2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE/ MONDAY AFTERNOON TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.
STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPS ARE NEAR A MODEL BLEND.
11
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1025 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING SO MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TO
REDUCE POPS FOR THE MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH...THE HRRR
INCREASES COVERAGE GREATLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST. SOME INDICATION IN
THE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST OUR POPS UPWARD
OVERNIGHT IN FUTURE UPDATES.
PORTIONS OF FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN AROUND 4
INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS EVENT SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE
RECEIVED A REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED FLOODING AS
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
11
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013/ MODELS
SHOW THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTH GA MONDAY NIGHT... WHERE IT
MEANDERS... THEN DRIFTS BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SPREAD BACK
ACROSS NORTH GA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW BEGINS TO
ADVECT DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA WHILE A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO CARVE A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES DOWN THE MS VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND PROVIDES THE
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL SYSTEM PUSHING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY... ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...THEN UP THE EAST COAST ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF CANADA HELPS HOLD THE
SYSTEM OFF SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY... A CONTINUED
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY... MODELS
SHOW A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH IN ITS WAKE. DUE
TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY FOR NOW AND MONITOR CHANGES IN
THE MODEL RUNS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL IMPACTING ATL AREA AND MCN
TAF SITES. ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO LOW MVFR BY 08-09Z...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
TO MID-HIGH MVFR BY 14-15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME W-WNW BEHIND THE
CONVECTION TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 6 KT OR LESS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 6-8KT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY GENERALLY AFTER 18Z...AND HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 -TSRA IN THE TAF FOR 19-23Z AT THIS TIME.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 08-14Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 84 63 87 / 60 50 30 10
ATLANTA 69 84 68 86 / 50 40 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 80 60 81 / 60 40 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 66 84 62 88 / 50 40 10 10
COLUMBUS 72 87 70 89 / 50 50 30 10
GAINESVILLE 67 83 65 85 / 90 40 20 10
MACON 69 86 68 90 / 100 50 40 20
ROME 67 83 61 88 / 40 30 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 84 62 87 / 50 40 20 10
VIDALIA 72 86 71 89 / 60 60 40 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
248 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STUBBORN STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE...BUT IS
STEADILY CONTRACTING UPON ITSELF AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. STILL SEEING SOME LOWER 60S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AT 2 AM...BUT TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WHERE MORE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WITH
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
LATEST RAP MODEL 925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
NORTHERN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS...AND SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...CU RULE
KEEPS SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70...BUT BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING STILL
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN IN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW NOT
PROVIDING FOR MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FROM I-55 WEST...WITH
AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
MAINLY BE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHOULD START OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CREEP
ACROSS ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF I-57 DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 40
PERCENT EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW A WIDER VARIATION OF SOLUTIONS AS UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS A BIT MORE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR CANADIAN MODELS AS IT LINGERS SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS THE LATTER
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND FOCUS THE
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. WHILE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MENTIONED ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE...HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT
IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND BACK TO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS SOME SIGNS OF
A COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN SETTING UP...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MOST
PROMINENT IN THAT REGARD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PRETTY MUCH DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AM USING THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS RANGE...AS THE GFS SEEMS A BIT SUSPICIOUS
WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER MISSOURI.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
CLEARING HAD BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME
REDEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL STILL TRY TO INCLUDE
A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT UNTIL DIURNAL CU REDEVELOP
MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE CLEARING IS NOT AS GOOD AS
IT HAD BEEN. IN ANY EVENT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF VALID TIME SHOULD KEEP WINDS MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE.
BAK
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
514 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
308 PM CDT
CONVETIVE TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THROUGH ITS 00Z EXPIRATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WI AT MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS MISSOURI. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL IL HAS DESTABILIZED
AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE UIN-PIA-PNT AT 19Z. SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG AND GENERALLY CONVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THAT REGION AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...AND EXPECT
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AIDED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS IA/MO PER GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
SCATTERED STORMS/SMALL CLUSTERS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 23-01Z OR SO...BEFORE DIURNAL DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY WITH SUNSET RESULTS IN DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KT AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...MAINLY
WEST WHERE A DCAPE AXIS OF 600-800 J/KG IS ANALYZED...WE COULD SEE A
FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS PRODUCE A LITTLE HAIL OR WIND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS A
FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...THOUGH ANALYSIS/GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER STORM PROPAGATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. SINCE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS ALREADY IN PLACE THERE...AND WITH THESE AREAS HAVING
RECEIVED BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHTS
MCS/S...ILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO RUN THROUGH ITS 00Z EXPIRATION.
COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR AND HEIGHT RISES SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WEAKER SECONDARY FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...WITH MOST GUIDANCE RUNS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MAKING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. GUIDANCE
REASONABLE IN DEPICTING TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY...AND MID
60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWER 60S LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO SPRAWL SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...
WHILE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY MID-WEEK. THIS RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY FOCUS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO IA/MN
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND BRING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE
DECAYING AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE MAKING IT THIS FAR
EAST. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER LOW AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. UPPER LOW FILLS AND OPENS UP DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOUTH
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FLOW NOT TERRIBLY STRONG. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
MANY DRY HOURS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 70S/NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD...THOUGH SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL KEEP WINDS
OFF THE LAKE PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH UPPER TROUGH AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SQUEEZE OUT QPF...THOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...70S...THOUGH ONSHORE WINDS OFF THE BIG
POND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* TWO WAVES OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA NOW THROUGH ABOUT 01Z
* OCNL MKVR CIGS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN
HEAVIER RAIN
* MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR...CIG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.
* WINDS SHIFT WITH LAKE BREEZE MID AFTERNOON SUN.
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EAST INTO INDIANA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
WARM AND VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA BUT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSISTS TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 2-3 THOUSAND FEET. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL PRESSURE
TROF/FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WSW THIS EVENING. THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH A SECONDARY FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL TURN WINDS WNW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME IFR OR EVEN LOW IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. LIFR WOULD BE RARE
FOR JUNE BUT HAVE ADDED A TEMPO IFR CIG GROUP TO THE TAFS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN MIXING
IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
A LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WILL
LIKELY REFLECT THIS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
ALLSOPP
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT-BKN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REST OF THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
ALLSOPP/IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
218 PM CDT
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND RAMP BACK UP INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT ON MONDAY WITH LAKE
BREEZES DEVELOPING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FRESHENING UP TO PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF
THE LAKE WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565
UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
308 PM CDT
CONVETIVE TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THROUGH ITS 00Z EXPIRATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WI AT MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS MISSOURI. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL IL HAS DESTABILIZED
AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE UIN-PIA-PNT AT 19Z. SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG AND GENERALLY CONVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THAT REGION AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...AND EXPECT
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AIDED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS IA/MO PER GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
SCATTERED STORMS/SMALL CLUSTERS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA THROUGH 23-01Z OR SO...BEFORE DIURNAL DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY WITH SUNSET RESULTS IN DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KT AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...MAINLY
WEST WHERE A DCAPE AXIS OF 600-800 J/KG IS ANALYZED...WE COULD SEE A
FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS PRODUCE A LITTLE HAIL OR WIND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS A
FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...THOUGH ANALYSIS/GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER STORM PROPAGATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. SINCE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS ALREADY IN PLACE THERE...AND WITH THESE AREAS HAVING
RECEIVED BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHTS
MCS/S...ILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO RUN THROUGH ITS 00Z EXPIRATION.
COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR AND HEIGHT RISES SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WEAKER SECONDARY FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...WITH MOST GUIDANCE RUNS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MAKING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. GUIDANCE
REASONABLE IN DEPICTING TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY...AND MID
60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWER 60S LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO SPRAWL SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...
WHILE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY MID-WEEK. THIS RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY FOCUS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO IA/MN
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND BRING
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK TO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE
DECAYING AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE MAKING IT THIS FAR
EAST. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER LOW AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. UPPER LOW FILLS AND OPENS UP DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOUTH
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FLOW NOT TERRIBLY STRONG. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
MANY DRY HOURS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 70S/NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD...THOUGH SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL KEEP WINDS
OFF THE LAKE PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH UPPER TROUGH AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SQUEEZE OUT QPF...THOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...70S...THOUGH ONSHORE WINDS OFF THE BIG
POND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SCT-BKN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING
NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVE IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVE.
* STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVE AND BECOMING
WEST...THEN SHIFTING NW TOWARD MORNING.
* MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR...CIG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.
* LAKE BREEZE MID AFTERNOON SUN.
ALLSOPP
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EAST INTO INDIANA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
WARM AND VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA BUT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSISTS TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 2-3 THOUSAND FEET. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL PRESSURE
TROF/FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WSW THIS EVENING. THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH A SECONDARY FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL TURN WINDS WNW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME IFR OR EVEN LOW IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. LIFR WOULD BE RARE
FOR JUNE BUT HAVE ADDED A TEMPO IFR CIG GROUP TO THE TAFS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN MIXING
IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
A LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WILL
LIKELY REFLECT THIS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
ALLSOPP
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT-BKN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REST OF THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
ALLSOPP
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
218 PM CDT
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND RAMP BACK UP INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT ON MONDAY WITH LAKE
BREEZES DEVELOPING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FRESHENING UP TO PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF
THE LAKE WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565
UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
250 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1141 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO POP COVERAGE/TIMING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE TRIMMED THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER MINNESOTA. SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL MO. WHILE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN
WARM/MOIST SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED OUTFLOW
FROM SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST INDIANA. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY SHIFT
THE FOCUS OF GREATER HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CANCELLED
PORTION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEEPING ONLY SOUTH TIER WHERE 2-3
INCH RAINS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AREA ALSO MORE
FAVORED FOR THE OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH HIGHER PWATS/STRONGER 850 MB MOIST
TRANSPORT AND SLOWER EXPECTED STORM PROPAGATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
WHILE OVERALL THREAT/COVERAGE OF TSRA APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHED...MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
DEPICT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WHICH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING FROM DVN
INDICATES INVERSION WAS FAIRLY SHALLOW ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND LARGER SCALE ASCENT WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD AROUND 800 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CIN BY
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
IL WHICH WOULD THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VIS
SATELLITE DOES DEPICT SOME ENHANCED CU ACROSS FAR NW IL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME. WHILE SPC HAS SHIFTED DAY 1 SEVERE SLIGHT RISK
WELL EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA...DRIER AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
PER 12Z DVN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...12Z SOUNDING FROM ILX INDICATES A DEEPER STABLE LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER LIKELY
KEEPING THINGS MORE CAPPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
PER ABOVE REASONING...HAVE ELIMINATED MORNING POPS ACROSS THE CWA...
AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
326 AM...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA.
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTS
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AFFECTING AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR
AND THERE HAS BEEN REASONABLE CONSISTENCY WITH THIS TREND OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO. THOUGH INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHWEST STILL
SUFFICIENT TO FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. BUT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY EAST OF I-55 WITH THE MAIN THREAT AGAIN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
TIMING THOUGH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THIS MORNING COULD
END UP BEING FAIRLY DRY/QUIET WITH CONVECTION NOT FIRING UNTIL
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST.
A WEAK WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THEN COOLER AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD/WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD EASILY
DROP WELL INTO THE 40S WITH EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS. COULD BE SOME
CLOUDS AROUND BUT WITH AN EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING COOLED LAKE AIR TO FLOW INLAND...THINK COOLER IS BETTER
FOR LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING. AIRMASS WARMS SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S LOOK ON TRACK BY TUESDAY MORNING. PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER FOR HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK BUT WITH EARLY JUNE SUNSHINE...THINK LOWER 70S
WELL INLAND WOULD BE REACHABLE.
CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS MID/LATE NEXT WEEK IS FAIRLY LOW AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE...HOW FAR EAST VARIOUS PRECIP WAVES REACH IS DOUBTFUL
FROM THIS DISTANCE. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SCT-BKN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING
NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVE IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVE.
* STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVE AND BECOMING
WEST...THEN SHIFTING NW TOWARD MORNING.
* MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR...CIG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.
* LAKE BREEZE MID AFTERNOON SUN.
ALLSOPP
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EAST INTO INDIANA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
WARM AND VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA BUT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSISTS TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 2-3 THOUSAND FEET. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL PRESSURE
TROF/FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WSW THIS EVENING. THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH A SECONDARY FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL TURN WINDS WNW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME IFR OR EVEN LOW IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. LIFR WOULD BE RARE
FOR JUNE BUT HAVE ADDED A TEMPO IFR CIG GROUP TO THE TAFS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN MIXING
IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
A LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WILL
LIKELY REFLECT THIS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
ALLSOPP
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT-BKN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REST OF THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
ALLSOPP
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
218 PM CDT
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND RAMP BACK UP INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT ON MONDAY WITH LAKE
BREEZES DEVELOPING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FRESHENING UP TO PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF
THE LAKE WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565
UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
219 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1141 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO POP COVERAGE/TIMING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE TRIMMED THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER MINNESOTA. SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL MO. WHILE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN
WARM/MOIST SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED OUTFLOW
FROM SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST INDIANA. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY SHIFT
THE FOCUS OF GREATER HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CANCELLED
PORTION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEEPING ONLY SOUTH TIER WHERE 2-3
INCH RAINS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AREA ALSO MORE
FAVORED FOR THE OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH HIGHER PWATS/STRONGER 850 MB MOIST
TRANSPORT AND SLOWER EXPECTED STORM PROPAGATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
WHILE OVERALL THREAT/COVERAGE OF TSRA APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHED...MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
DEPICT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WHICH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING FROM DVN
INDICATES INVERSION WAS FAIRLY SHALLOW ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND LARGER SCALE ASCENT WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD AROUND 800 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CIN BY
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
IL WHICH WOULD THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VIS
SATELLITE DOES DEPICT SOME ENHANCED CU ACROSS FAR NW IL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME. WHILE SPC HAS SHIFTED DAY 1 SEVERE SLIGHT RISK
WELL EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA...DRIER AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
PER 12Z DVN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...12Z SOUNDING FROM ILX INDICATES A DEEPER STABLE LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER LIKELY
KEEPING THINGS MORE CAPPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
PER ABOVE REASONING...HAVE ELIMINATED MORNING POPS ACROSS THE CWA...
AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
326 AM...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA.
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTS
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AFFECTING AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR
AND THERE HAS BEEN REASONABLE CONSISTENCY WITH THIS TREND OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO. THOUGH INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHWEST STILL
SUFFICIENT TO FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. BUT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY EAST OF I-55 WITH THE MAIN THREAT AGAIN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
TIMING THOUGH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THIS MORNING COULD
END UP BEING FAIRLY DRY/QUIET WITH CONVECTION NOT FIRING UNTIL
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST.
A WEAK WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THEN COOLER AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD/WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD EASILY
DROP WELL INTO THE 40S WITH EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS. COULD BE SOME
CLOUDS AROUND BUT WITH AN EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING COOLED LAKE AIR TO FLOW INLAND...THINK COOLER IS BETTER
FOR LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING. AIRMASS WARMS SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S LOOK ON TRACK BY TUESDAY MORNING. PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER FOR HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK BUT WITH EARLY JUNE SUNSHINE...THINK LOWER 70S
WELL INLAND WOULD BE REACHABLE.
CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS MID/LATE NEXT WEEK IS FAIRLY LOW AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE...HOW FAR EAST VARIOUS PRECIP WAVES REACH IS DOUBTFUL
FROM THIS DISTANCE. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON AND
ENDING EARLY EVENING.
* STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING AND SHIFTING WNW OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
ALLSOPP
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EAST INTO INDIANA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
WARM AND VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA BUT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSISTS TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 2-3 THOUSAND FEET. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL PRESSURE
TROF/FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WSW THIS EVENING. THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH A SECONDARY FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL TURN WINDS WNW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME IFR OR EVEN LOW IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. LIFR WOULD BE RARE
FOR JUNE BUT HAVE ADDED A TEMPO IFR CIG GROUP TO THE TAFS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN MIXING
IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
A LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WILL
LIKELY REFLECT THIS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
ALLSOPP
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
MID AFTERNOON AND ENDING EARLY EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER AT AIRPORTS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIG DEVELOPING.
ALLSOPP
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
218 PM CDT
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND RAMP BACK UP INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT ON MONDAY WITH LAKE
BREEZES DEVELOPING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FRESHENING UP TO PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF
THE LAKE WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565
UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1244 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1141 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO POP COVERAGE/TIMING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE TRIMMED THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER MINNESOTA. SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL MO. WHILE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN
WARM/MOIST SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED OUTFLOW
FROM SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST INDIANA. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY SHIFT
THE FOCUS OF GREATER HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CANCELLED
PORTION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEEPING ONLY SOUTH TIER WHERE 2-3
INCH RAINS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AREA ALSO MORE
FAVORED FOR THE OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH HIGHER PWATS/STRONGER 850 MB MOIST
TRANSPORT AND SLOWER EXPECTED STORM PROPAGATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
WHILE OVERALL THREAT/COVERAGE OF TSRA APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHED...MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
DEPICT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WHICH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING FROM DVN
INDICATES INVERSION WAS FAIRLY SHALLOW ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND LARGER SCALE ASCENT WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD AROUND 800 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CIN BY
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
IL WHICH WOULD THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VIS
SATELLITE DOES DEPICT SOME ENHANCED CU ACROSS FAR NW IL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME. WHILE SPC HAS SHIFTED DAY 1 SEVERE SLIGHT RISK
WELL EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA...DRIER AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
PER 12Z DVN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...12Z SOUNDING FROM ILX INDICATES A DEEPER STABLE LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER LIKELY
KEEPING THINGS MORE CAPPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
PER ABOVE REASONING...HAVE ELIMINATED MORNING POPS ACROSS THE CWA...
AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
326 AM...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA.
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTS
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AFFECTING AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR
AND THERE HAS BEEN REASONABLE CONSISTENCY WITH THIS TREND OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO. THOUGH INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHWEST STILL
SUFFICIENT TO FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. BUT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY EAST OF I-55 WITH THE MAIN THREAT AGAIN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
TIMING THOUGH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THIS MORNING COULD
END UP BEING FAIRLY DRY/QUIET WITH CONVECTION NOT FIRING UNTIL
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST.
A WEAK WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THEN COOLER AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD/WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD EASILY
DROP WELL INTO THE 40S WITH EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS. COULD BE SOME
CLOUDS AROUND BUT WITH AN EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING COOLED LAKE AIR TO FLOW INLAND...THINK COOLER IS BETTER
FOR LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING. AIRMASS WARMS SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S LOOK ON TRACK BY TUESDAY MORNING. PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER FOR HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK BUT WITH EARLY JUNE SUNSHINE...THINK LOWER 70S
WELL INLAND WOULD BE REACHABLE.
CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS MID/LATE NEXT WEEK IS FAIRLY LOW AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE...HOW FAR EAST VARIOUS PRECIP WAVES REACH IS DOUBTFUL
FROM THIS DISTANCE. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON AND
ENDING EARLY EVENING.
* STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING AND SHIFTING WNW OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
ALLSOPP
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EAST INTO INDIANA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
WARM AND VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA BUT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSISTS TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 2-3 THOUSAND FEET. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL PRESSURE
TROF/FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WSW THIS EVENING. THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH A SECONDARY FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL TURN WINDS WNW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME IFR OR EVEN LOW IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. LIFR WOULD BE RARE
FOR JUNE BUT HAVE ADDED A TEMPO IFR CIG GROUP TO THE TAFS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN MIXING
IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
A LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND WILL
LIKELY REFLECT THIS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
ALLSOPP
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
MID AFTERNOON AND ENDING EARLY EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER AT AIRPORTS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIG DEVELOPING.
ALLSOPP
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY TODAY AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS
WI AND TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVE. INITIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LAKE...MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER LAKE
HAS LED TO FOG. WHILE IT CANNOT BE DETERMINED HOW WIDESPREAD THIS
IS...THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE SHIPS OBS SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT TO HAVE
REPORTED DENSE FOG...ALONG WITH A COUPLE NEARBY SHORE LOCATIONS IN
MI. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT TURNING THE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDING AN
INCREASE IN SPEED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAKE MON AND TUE
BEFORE A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...WHICH WILL THEN AGAIN BE FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
15Z/10AM SURFACE CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. NOT MUCH HAPPENING IMMEDIATELY
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT YET...HOWEVER STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
ONGOING RAIN FURTHER SOUTH IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED
WITH LAST NIGHTS STORM COMPLEX. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS THE S/SE KILX CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PARIS TO
EFFINGHAM LINE. 12Z NAM AND HRRR TRY TO PUSH A WAVE OF THIS PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DECATUR AND CHAMPAIGN AREAS...HOWEVER SEE NO
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING ON RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS. WILL
THEREFORE FOCUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE S/SE CWA...WITH ONLY LOW
CHANCE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION
FIRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD...TAKING BEST RAIN CHANCES
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...THEN COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AT THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. HRRR
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING CELLS ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH
02Z. DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION
VCTS AT THIS TIME. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. BASED ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...1500FT CEILINGS
WILL RETURN TO KPIA BY 04Z...THEN FURTHER EAST TO KCMI BY AROUND
06Z.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
MCS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES IN A WIDE SWATH FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WORST OF THE
STORMS HAVE EXITED THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES EAST OF I-55 AS OF 245 AM.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS... WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EMPHASIS ON FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA TODAY...AS AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT THAT
WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-55 AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. ANOTHER HALF TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WHICH HAVE BEEN HAMMERED WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM CLOUD
DEPTH OF 11KFT IN THAT AREA. A RENEWED SURGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND BE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOCUSES ON THE AREA
EAST OF HIGHWAY 51 FOR RENEWED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
AFTER THAT...A COOLER AND MUCH QUIETER PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR A FEW
DAYS...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SWING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN CWA...AS A TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 70 WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS WITH TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HANG UP
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE THE GFS
IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN
THE GRIDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MENTIONABLE POPS HOLDING OFF IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA UNTIL THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD THEN TRACK
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...THINK THE CHANCES OF RAIN ON
FRIDAY ARE LOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS EAST OF I-55
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ038-042>046-
051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1142 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1141 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO POP COVERAGE/TIMING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE TRIMMED THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER MINNESOTA. SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL MO. WHILE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN
WARM/MOIST SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED OUTFLOW
FROM SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST INDIANA. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY SHIFT
THE FOCUS OF GREATER HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CANCELLED
PORTION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEEPING ONLY SOUTH TIER WHERE 2-3
INCH RAINS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AREA ALSO MORE
FAVORED FOR THE OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH HIGHER PWATS/STRONGER 850 MB MOIST
TRANSPORT AND SLOWER EXPECTED STORM PROPAGATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
WHILE OVERALL THREAT/COVERAGE OF TSRA APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHED...MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
DEPICT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WHICH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING FROM DVN
INDICATES INVERSION WAS FAIRLY SHALLOW ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FA...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND LARGER SCALE ASCENT WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD AROUND 800 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CIN BY
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
IL WHICH WOULD THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VIS
SATELLITE DOES DEPICT SOME ENHANCED CU ACROSS FAR NW IL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME. WHILE SPC HAS SHIFTED DAY 1 SEVERE SLIGHT RISK
WELL EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA...DRIER AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
PER 12Z DVN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...12Z SOUNDING FROM ILX INDICATES A DEEPER STABLE LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER LIKELY
KEEPING THINGS MORE CAPPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
PER ABOVE REASONING...HAVE ELIMINATED MORNING POPS ACROSS THE CWA...
AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS.
RATZER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
326 AM...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA.
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTS
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AFFECTING AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR
AND THERE HAS BEEN REASONABLE CONSISTENCY WITH THIS TREND OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO. THOUGH INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHWEST STILL
SUFFICIENT TO FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. BUT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY EAST OF I-55 WITH THE MAIN THREAT AGAIN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
TIMING THOUGH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THIS MORNING COULD
END UP BEING FAIRLY DRY/QUIET WITH CONVECTION NOT FIRING UNTIL
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST.
A WEAK WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THEN COOLER AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD/WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD EASILY
DROP WELL INTO THE 40S WITH EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS. COULD BE SOME
CLOUDS AROUND BUT WITH AN EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING COOLED LAKE AIR TO FLOW INLAND...THINK COOLER IS BETTER
FOR LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING. AIRMASS WARMS SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S LOOK ON TRACK BY TUESDAY MORNING. PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER FOR HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK BUT WITH EARLY JUNE SUNSHINE...THINK LOWER 70S
WELL INLAND WOULD BE REACHABLE.
CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS MID/LATE NEXT WEEK IS FAIRLY LOW AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE...HOW FAR EAST VARIOUS PRECIP WAVES REACH IS DOUBTFUL
FROM THIS DISTANCE. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR CIGS
* STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
* FROPA TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WNW AND CIGS LOWERING TO
AROUND 15 HND FT.
ALLSOPP
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 2500-3000 FT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY SOLID THROUGH AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER WI TODAY AND TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT FROM THIS FEATURE EASES
EASTWARD...CONVERGENCE OF A CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
INCREASE AND LIKELY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
BY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE ON THIS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT UNLIKE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM WIND
COMPLEX IS LOW. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS
EVE INTO OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING NEAR THE WI/IL STATE LINE MAY CLIP
SOME OF THE AIRFIELDS PRIOR TO 14Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR
MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE
FRONT...AND ESPECIALLY SOME CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AT
AIRPORTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
ALLSOPP
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
210 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY TODAY AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS
WI AND TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVE. INITIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LAKE...MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER LAKE
HAS LED TO FOG. WHILE IT CANNOT BE DETERMINED HOW WIDESPREAD THIS
IS...THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE SHIPS OBS SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT TO HAVE
REPORTED DENSE FOG...ALONG WITH A COUPLE NEARBY SHORE LOCATIONS IN
MI. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT TURNING THE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDING AN
INCREASE IN SPEED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAKE MON AND TUE
BEFORE A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...WHICH WILL THEN AGAIN BE FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1040 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
15Z/10AM SURFACE CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. NOT MUCH HAPPENING IMMEDIATELY
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT YET...HOWEVER STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
ONGOING RAIN FURTHER SOUTH IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED
WITH LAST NIGHTS STORM COMPLEX. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS THE S/SE KILX CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PARIS TO
EFFINGHAM LINE. 12Z NAM AND HRRR TRY TO PUSH A WAVE OF THIS PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DECATUR AND CHAMPAIGN AREAS...HOWEVER SEE NO
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING ON RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS. WILL
THEREFORE FOCUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE S/SE CWA...WITH ONLY LOW
CHANCE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION
FIRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD...TAKING BEST RAIN CHANCES
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...THEN COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 658 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
BRIEF BREAK FOR ILX TERMINALS...AS MOST OF SHOWERS AND TS SOUTH OF
DEC. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS THIS AFTERNOON THE TS
ACTIVITY WILL REFIRE/MOVE IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. 4KM WRF AND RAP MODELS BOTH POINTING TO TS DEVELOPMENT
FROM SPI TO CMI AROUND 18Z. KEEPING JUST A SHOWER MENTION IN PIA
AND BMI AT THIS TIME...AS NRN TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND ONLY IN SCT ACTIVITY WITH DIURNAL
INFLUENCES. AFTER 09Z A DEVELOPMENT OF LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND TURNS INTO A STRATUS DECK SIMILAR TO WHAT SAT
IMAGERY AND OBS HAVE IN THE PIA TO SPI AND POINTS WEST THIS
MORNING.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
MCS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES IN A WIDE SWATH FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WORST OF THE
STORMS HAVE EXITED THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES EAST OF I-55 AS OF 245 AM.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS... WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EMPHASIS ON FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA TODAY...AS AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT THAT
WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-55 AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. ANOTHER HALF TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WHICH HAVE BEEN HAMMERED WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM CLOUD
DEPTH OF 11KFT IN THAT AREA. A RENEWED SURGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND BE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOCUSES ON THE AREA
EAST OF HIGHWAY 51 FOR RENEWED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
AFTER THAT...A COOLER AND MUCH QUIETER PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR A FEW
DAYS...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SWING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN CWA...AS A TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 70 WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS WITH TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HANG UP
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE THE GFS
IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN
THE GRIDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MENTIONABLE POPS HOLDING OFF IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA UNTIL THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD THEN TRACK
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...THINK THE CHANCES OF RAIN ON
FRIDAY ARE LOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS EAST OF I-55
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ038-042>046-
051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
715 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
MCS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES IN A WIDE SWATH FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WORST OF THE
STORMS HAVE EXITED THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES EAST OF I-55 AS OF 245 AM.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS... WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EMPHASIS ON FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA TODAY...AS AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT THAT
WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-55 AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. ANOTHER HALF TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...WHICH HAVE BEEN HAMMERED WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM CLOUD
DEPTH OF 11KFT IN THAT AREA. A RENEWED SURGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND BE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOCUSES ON THE AREA
EAST OF HIGHWAY 51 FOR RENEWED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
AFTER THAT...A COOLER AND MUCH QUIETER PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR A FEW
DAYS...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SWING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN CWA...AS A TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 70 WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS WITH TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HANG UP
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE THE GFS
IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN
THE GRIDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MENTIONABLE POPS HOLDING OFF IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA UNTIL THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD THEN TRACK
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...THINK THE CHANCES OF RAIN ON
FRIDAY ARE LOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS EAST OF I-55
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 658 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013
BRIEF BREAK FOR ILX TERMINALS...AS MOST OF SHOWERS AND TS SOUTH OF
DEC. HOWEVER...THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS THIS AFTERNOON THE TS
ACTIVITY WILL REFIRE/MOVE IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. 4KM WRF AND RAP MODELS BOTH POINTING TO TS DEVELOPMENT
FROM SPI TO CMI AROUND 18Z. KEEPING JUST A SHOWER MENTION IN PIA
AND BMI AT THIS TIME...AS NRN TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND ONLY IN SCT ACTIVITY WITH DIURNAL
INFLUENCES. AFTER 09Z A DEVELOPMENT OF LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND TURNS INTO A STRATUS DECK SIMILAR TO WHAT SAT
IMAGERY AND OBS HAVE IN THE PIA TO SPI AND POINTS WEST THIS
MORNING.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ILZ038-042>046-
051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS/SHORT/LONG SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AS OF 0830 UTC SHOWED AN ENHANCEMENT IN WATER VAPOR
FROM A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER WEST TEXAS AND
FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS MCS WAS LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF MOISTURE AND ALSO TIED TO THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE POLAR JET WAS ALSO ACTIVE
WITH A COMPACT, YET FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA.
THIS FEATURE CONTRIBUTED TO LOWERING OF SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE 0800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALED A 997MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WITH 1002MB LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY...WITH THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY. THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH A LOW FORMING
WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
HOT 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
AXIS...AROUND +32C INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
NEAR 100 DEGREES OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THE INHERITED
FORECAST ALREADY HAD 99 GOING OUT WEST AND SEE NO REAL REASON TO
CHANGE THIS. THE GREATER QUESTION IS HOW FAR THIS HEAT WILL EXTEND
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. FEEL THE RAP MODEL IS TOO HOT GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORIES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WILL BE FROM AROUND THE
OLD DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH STILL. THE NAM12 MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL
HOLDING INTO 80S ALL THE WAY WEST TO HIGHWAY 283. FOR THE 283
CORRIDOR FROM JETMORE TO DODGE TO ASHLAND WILL BE GOING WITH 93-94F
AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...THE MCS ACROSS WEST TEXAS HAS DISRUPTED
THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW THAT RECOVERS LATER
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING WITH STRONG SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DEWPOINTS
IN THE 54 TO 57F RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2200 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH CLASSIC 90-DEGREE TURNING OF WINDS IN THE 850-500MB LAYER
RESULTING IN 35 TO 42 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM AGL LAYER.
COMBINED...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TWO-INCH DIAMETER OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
LARGER HAIL...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 70 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT
LOOKS QUITE SLIM GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. BY THE TIME THE LCL HEIGHTS LOWER AT THE ONSET OF
SUNSET...STORMS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY GROWN UPSCALE ENOUGH WITH THE
SUPERCELL WINDOW CLOSING. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR THE BEST AREA FOR
A SMALL MCS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAKES SENSE SINCE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN
A TRADITIONAL FAVORED AREA ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS BACA
COUNTY, COLORADO. OTHER SMALLER (YET STILL CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER) ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND TRACK
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHT RISK
AREA LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...BUT LOCALLY IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
(GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF AN ASHLAND TO MONTEZUMA TO JOHNSON
LINE).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY:
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SBCAPE OF AROUND 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 45-50 KN OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DO SHOW ADEQUATE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THERE ARE TWO PROBLEM AREAS THOUGH
WITH THE KINEMATIC PROFILE...FIRST IS WEAK FLOW AROUND 700 HPA AND THEN
WEAK 5-10 KM BULK SHEAR. THE FIRST WILL CUT DOWN ON TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE SECOND COULD INCREASE BENEFICIAL COMPETITION FOR HAIL EMBRYOS AND
CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF CONVECTION
CAN REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. HERE...AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DRIFTING ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAKER BUT THE NAM STILL SHOWS SUFFICIENT POST FRONTAL DEWPOINTS.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS AREA IS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND PERHAPS 70 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONGEALS
INTO A QLCS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE THREATS...SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY:
SFC TO 850 HPA WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL STILL BE UPSLOPE WEDNESDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY COOL AT 12 DEG C (BETWEEN THE 25TH
AND 50TH PERCENTILE). THIS PATTERN FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT OF LINGERING CONVECTION, CLOUD COVER, AND UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE
DECREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S DEG F AND TAPERED
POPS NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS SLIPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
A DRIER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE GFS IS WETTER THAN
THE ECMWF (NO SURPRISE), SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THEN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A SYNOPTIC
WAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS. BY SUNDAY, AMPLIFICATION OF A 500 HPA
RIDGE FAVORS A DRIER FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A DEEP LEE TROUGH MATURES
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 22 TO 26
KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. LATE IN THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THE PREVAILING MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR AN EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS AT GCK
AND DDC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL TODAY
AND TONIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 62 88 63 / 10 20 30 40
GCK 97 61 86 61 / 20 20 30 40
EHA 99 62 88 60 / 30 30 40 50
LBL 99 62 90 62 / 40 40 40 50
HYS 88 62 80 60 / 10 20 20 40
P28 89 65 89 63 / 10 20 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
CENTRAL PLAINS TRANSITIONING TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE OLD
UPPER TROF NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER GYRE OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST CANADA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES
WERE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT
19Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A STUBBORN STRATUS FIELD IN EASTERN KANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAD FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRATUS...BUT LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUGGEST MUCH OF IT BECOME MORE STRATOCUMULUS. NNW WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO USHER IT OUT OF THE STATE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME INCOMING
CIRRUS. MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE TONIGHT AND WITH
THE DEWPOINTS FALLING AND INCREASED WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG. MAY SEE A WEAK WAVE MOVE THROUGH ALOFT MONDAY AND
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ARE RATHER MEAGER AND NOT EXPECTING PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
FOCUS SHOULD BE TO THE WEST AND WOULD LIKELY NOT REACH NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 0Z. SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING ANTICIPATED BEYOND SUNDAYS
MAXES IN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
HAS ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS COUPLED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS THAT UPPER
TROUGH/LOW SLOWS AND SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY
TRAVERSES EASTERN KS WITH ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
LIFT AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF EC KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS.
NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WAIT FOR THE WEEKEND WHEN
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. WHILE
MODELS VARY IN STRENGTH OF TROUGH AND LATITUDE OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...BOTH EC AND GFS WOULD INDICATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM
SOMETIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS FOR TUE/WED CONVECTION AND AGAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THAT NEXT SYSTEM...EXPECT PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS
LATER TONIGHT...BUT NAM DOES NOT. SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT WILL OPT
TO HOLD OFF ON MVFR FORECAST GROUP...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
JL
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...60
AVIATION...LEIGHTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
349 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY IN WEST VIRGINIA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS
ALREADY MOVED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK. ANOTHER ONE IS IN
SW VA AND WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. ON THE RADAR
SCOPE...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NOVA AND N-CENTRAL MD.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA NEAR THE WATERS AND CENTRAL MD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS FORMING BEHIND IT AS REGION
IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH MU CAPE AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. LOW VSBY
IN HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY...SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AS DRIER NW FLOW ENTERS THE MID ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL JET AND
PVA WILL STILL BE PRESENT AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVEN AFTER FROPA PASSES. HRRR AND NAM DEPICTS THESE WELL WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHALLOW LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL CAPE OF AROUND 500J/KG ARE PRESENT
IN FCST SOUNDINGS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS NEAR 80
DEGREES AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS SFC HEATING COMMENCES THIS EVENING SO WILL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AND MAKE WAY FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER
EVENING WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
S/WV ENERGY WL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED...CARVING OUT A TROF
AXIS. AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME...MSTR WL BE INJECTED NWD FM MEX...
SUPPORTING DVLPMNT OF AN INVERTED TROF. WL NEED TO MONITOR HOW
QUICKLY THIS MSTR MAKES IT INTO THE MID ATLC...BUT 00Z GDNC SUGGESTS
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...THERE WL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS WED NGT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CHC OF A SHRA IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...MAYBE INTO
THE NRN SHEN VLY/CATOCTINS...AND LTST GRIDS REFLECT THAT CHANGE.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PCPN INCREASES THRU FRI...AS ONE OR MORE IMPULSES
CONVERGE OVER CWFA. AM LESS CERTAIN ABOUT STABILITY. SETUP WUDNT
FAVOR STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT GDNC DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME CAPE
ADVECTING NWD W/IN TROF. AS UPR LOW CATCHES UP TO SFC DISTURBANCE...
THE WHOLE SYSTEM WL BECOME MORE FRONTAL IN NATURE. UNSETTLED CONDS
SHUD HANG ARND TIL THE FNT SWEEPS EWD...WHICH MAY NOT BE TIL SAT NGT
OR SUN.
ANTICIPATED CLDCVR WL PRECLUDE BIG DAYTIME WARM-UPS. FCST MAXT WL BE
NEAR CLIMO. MIN-T WL BE A BIT ABV THAT...SPCLY FRI-SAT MRNG...BASED
ON FCST DEWPTS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE
MORNING. AREAS THAT GET A BREAK FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DROP TO
IFR DUE TO LOW STRATUS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...IAD-CHO TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR SINCE
THEY HAD A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS BUT OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION AND HELP MIX THEM OUT. OTHER TERMINALS HAVE BEEN IN
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND HAVE ONLY DROPPED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND USHER IN N-NW WINDS.
LACK OF PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING GUSTS AT THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF FROPA AND GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. LIFTED A SCA FOR SOUTH OF
DRUM PT AND TANGIER SOUND UNTIL 4PM MONDAY.
NW WINDS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY EVENING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT WINDS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS CURRENT SCA AREA MONDAY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ISSUE A SCA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ534-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
323 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. THESE ARE
BEING CAUSED BY AN UPPER PV MAX OVER WV THAT IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AND ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE EAST. THIS EVOLUTION OF
THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BEST DEPICTED ON THE HRRR MODEL
BASED REFLECTIVITY WHICH HAS DONE A DECENT JOB IN PICKING THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS SO FAR THIS EVENING. WITH REPEATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS THAT SEE 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY MORNING. WITH THE PAST WEEK OF DRY
WEATHER ONLY EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CAT POPS MONDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTRN. ALTHOUGH JUST
ABT ANY PLACE CAN SEE A TSTRM...BEST SPRT WITH HIGHEST INSTAB WILL
BE ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC. LCLLY HVY RAINFALL CONTS. CDFRNT APPRCHS
FROM THE N LATE...BUT WRM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS AHEAD THE THE
BNDRY. HIGHS 75-80.
GIVEN THE HOT / DRY CNDTNS PAST FEW DAYS AND CONVECTIVE TYPE PCPN...
ANY WDSPRD FLOODING NOT XPCTD SO NO FLOOD HEADLINES. SPS`S OR FLS`S
MAY BE NEEDED IF CONVECTION DVLPS OVR THE SAME AREA. WHAT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED ARE THE RIVER LVLS OVR THE NXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE
RUNOFF. WITH A QPF BTWN 1-2 INCHES...SOME DECENT RISES IN LCL RIVERS
ARE LIKELY...BUT NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED ATTM.
LAST IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S MOVES NE ALLOWING CDFRNT TO SAG S ACROSS
FA MON NITE. WND SHFT TO THE NW ALLOWS DRYER AIR TO FILTER IN. PCPN
TAPERS OFF ACROSS NWRN HALF OF FA AFTR MIDNITE BUT LINGERS THRU THE
NITE OVR THE SE. LOWS U50S NRN MOST CNTYS TO M60S SERN AREAS.
MODELS SHOW ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS SERN AREA TUE
MORN. OTW...HIGH PRS TO THE NW RESULTS IN DCRG CLDNS WITH LWR DP TMPS.
HIGHS M-U70S CSTL AREAS.
HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE NITE AND ERLY WED. SOME INCRS IN
CLDNS WED AFTRN AS HIGH LVL MSTR INCRS FROM THE S. LOWS TUE NITE IN
THE 50S. HIGHS WED U70S-L80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WX ACRS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU
MORNG. THEN...THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST EASTERLY THRU SOUTHERLY
FLO...ALNG WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LO PRES AND AN ASSOC
FRNTL BNDRY FM THE W...WILL RESULT IN THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FM LATE THU THRU SAT NGT. SLGT OR SML CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY
LINGER ON SUN...ESPLY OVR SRN HALF OF THE REGION...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LAYING ACRS THE CAROLINAS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S THU MORNG...THEN RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI...SAT AND SUN
MORNGS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S THU...AND IN THE
UPR 70S TO MID 80S FRI...SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
S/SW FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT.
PERIODS OF SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TDY WITH A WARM AND MOIST ATM OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. CONDS WILL BE MAINLY VFR/MVFR...WITH IFR PSBL IN
HEAVIER SHWRS. THUNDER IS PSBL AS WELL BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE RAIN WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER CSTL AREAS
DURING THE AFTN...WITH STRATUS PREVAILING OVER ALL AREAS FOR THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
DRY/VFR CONDS RETURN FROM NW TO SE ON TUE (SOME SHWRS/LO CLDS MAY
LINGER THRU TUE MORNG AT KPHF/KORF/KECG AND N/NE WNDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT AT THESE SITES ON TUE AS WELL). DRY/VFR TUE NIGHT THRU
THU IN LIGHTER E/NE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TDY AS HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE TO 5 FT OVER NRN CSTL WTRS
OVRNGT. WITH SEAS THERE CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT AND A SCA IN
EFFECT...WILL MAINTAIN THE HEADLINE FOR NOW AND REEVALUATE LATER
THIS MORNG. OTW...SOUTHERLY FLOW (10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS) WILL CONTINUE TDY AHEAD OF THE FRNT. A
WND SHIFT TO N/NE WILL OCCUR LATE TNGT FOLLOWING THE FROPA. POST-
FRNTAL WNDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS BRIEFLY ERLY TUE...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW WITH IT BEING 3RD PERIOD
AND LO CONFIDENCE WITH A SHORT DURATION. HI PRES THEN BLDS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR TUE AND WED. EXPECT E/NE WNDS GENRLY 10-15 KT
WITH 2-3 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG/JEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN
ONTARIO(NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR) AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN CONFLUENT NW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN LAKES. WITH
CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER
30S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING THE
REGIONAL...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS 850
MB TEMPS IN THE 2C TO 5C RANGE ALLOW MAX READINGS TO REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB ALONG WITH MEAN
MIXING RATIO AROUND 3 G/KG SUPPORT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 20S INLAND...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE.
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWAT VALUES 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN
VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS...PER MODELS 700-400 RH TRENDS...MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS LOW AS MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY
AGAIN DEVELOP...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD FROST
REQUIRING HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH
MID CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IN THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FARTHER EAST...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES WITH THE BETTER
MIXING. HAVE MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT...BUT WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DON/T EXPECT MUCH
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BEST FORCING STILL
CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED IN WISCONSIN...BUT DOES BRUSH THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE 00Z GFS HAS
SHIFTED FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM. WILL NOT INCORPORATE INTO THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCH TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
FARTHER NORTHEAST...THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL KEEP DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR IN PLACE AND SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA DRY OR JUST HAVING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT KEPT VALUES ONLY AROUND
0.3-0.4IN IN THAT AREA AND NOT GOING AS HIGH AS NAM/GFS. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS...EXPECT COOLEST HIGHS OVER
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE
DECREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WILL TRY TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP A
FEW DEGREES...BUT VALUES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY AND GENERALLY SUNNY DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON THE HIGHS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR 70 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW SOON THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR SUNDAY...WHICH PRODUCES CHANCE POPS
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES DOMINATING. A
STEADY LK BREEZE WIND WL DEVELOP ON MON WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
OTRW...WINDS WL BE LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAINLY LIGHT N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLY BY FRIDAY...WHILE A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER FAR
W LAKE SUPERIOR FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FUNNELING
DOWN TOWARD DULUTH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING OVER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM...CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT SHRAS AND
POSSIBLY TSRA WILL REMAIN OVER THE CLT METRO AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE PRE DAWN PERIOD. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS
THROUGH 12Z...THEN INDICATE A DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE
CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN OR FLASH FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER TERRITORY THAT OBSERVED 2 TO 3
INCHES LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
AS OF 1030 PM...THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND THE RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE
THE UPR LVL VORT MAX A LTL OVER HALFWAY THRU THE CWFA. THE LEADING
CONVECTION IS ABOUT THRU THE SE CORNER OF THE FA (UNION NC)...AND
BEHIND THIS...VERY LITTLE IS SEEN ON RADAR. LOOKING AT THE 12Z
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS...IT SEEMS THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING ATOP A MOIST AIR MASS AND CONTINUED SWLY 850 MB
FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...WILL KEEP A DECENT CHC POP THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE COOLED FROM THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO MAINLY UPR 60S
ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...AND THEY WILL PROBABLY HOLD AROUND THOSE
READINGS OVERNIGHT.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
ALONG WITH DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE MAY WELL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP OR WASHES OUT. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH A SHEAR AXIS OUT OVER INTERSTATE 77 WHERE THE BEST CHC OF
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A RELATIVELY LOW DIURNAL TEMP TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY MON NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDING SHOWING GOOD MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION ON TUE IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW. THEREFORE...I KEPT THE
FORECAST MOSTLY DRY MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
UPSLOPE PRECIP IN THE MTNS.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFT EAST. THE CENTER OF
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WED WITH ITS SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO JUICY CONDITIONS WITH PW VALUES REACHING NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY WED
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATES THAT CAPPING INVERSION WILL WEAKEN
AND SURFACE TO 700 MB LAYER WILL BECOME SATURATED. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK SBCAPE OF 300-500 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT.
HENCE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF NOON SUNDAY...AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO
THE EC.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING
START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE
TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROF EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...PROXIMITY TO A BUILDING TROPICAL
FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL YIELD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THUS...EXPECTING INCREASES IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MARINE AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THEREFORE WENT WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON A DIURNAL HEATING TYPE PATTERN.
WOULD LIKE TO NOTE THAT POPS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND COULD CHANGE AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TROPICAL
FORMATION...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE.
WITH RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THERE IS BROAD MODEL
DISCONTINUITY REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE GFS
SEEMS TO TREND WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GULF MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN WEAKENING FURTHER AS
ITS REMNANTS CROSS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WHERE IT DISSIPATES. THE
ECMWF TAKES THE SAME TRACK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT KEEPS A MUCH
MORE ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF SHORE NEAR SAVANNAH
GEORGIA...AND BRUSHING THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE EJECTING OUT TO SEA WITH THE
UPPER TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A
VCTS...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE PRE DAWN PERIOD.
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 9Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS...MVFR CLOUDS AND VIS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE SHRA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SCT IFR TO MVFR CEILING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE...MIXING TO VFR BY MID DAY. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT...MAY PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
20-23Z. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...KAVL...KGUM...KGSP...KHKY WERE OBSERVING LIFR CEILINGS
AT 6Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
KHKY. KAND IS THE ONLY VFR SITE AT 6Z...BUT TRENDS INDICATE THAT
MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP BY 7Z...WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING IFR BY
9Z. OVERALL...TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF AN AREA OF SHRA ACROSS
THE CLT METRO AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING TO MID DAY. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT...MAY PASS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON. A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING UNDER HIGH PRES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
TUE BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY OVER THE SFC HIGH MID TO LATE
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT MED 74% MED 74% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 62% HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 75% MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 71% MED 78% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU LOW 46% MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 72% MED 72% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1143 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
MAINLY TO UPDATE EXPECTED POP AND SKY COVER TRENDS. REDUCED POPS
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT KEPT LIKELY POPS SOUTH FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...MUCAPE
VALUES ALREADY ABOVE 1000 J/KG EVERYWHERE ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT /WHICH IS SORT OF STRETCHED BETWEEN AHN AND CSG/ AND SBCAPE
VALUES INCHING UP AS WELL. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY KEEP
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA SO WILL WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND THEN MAKE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FROM
THERE. OVERALL TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK GOOD THOUGH
TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IF CLOUDS DO NOT BREAK UP AS
EXPECTED.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA CURRENTLY WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT REACHING CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
TONIGHT AND STALLING/WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH GEORGIA. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
TODAY WITH A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING THROUGH TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT A
MINIMUM. INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR MAKES IT INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
FOR CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG DIURNAL BIAS.
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY SHOULD BE MODERATE ONCE
AGAIN BUT THE SAME LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHEAR WOULD
INDICATE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TUESDAY AS
WELL.
KEPT CLOSE TO MOS HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
20
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH A GENERAL
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IN
PLACE. THE DRIEST AIR THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE WEEK WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF GA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST TO BE AOA 1.25 INCHES WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY IS NEAR
NORMAL. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUES INTO WED TO ACCOUNT
FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS WHICH MAY FIRE UP DURING THE AFTN...WHICH
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.
BY LATE WED THROUGH FRI...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY
ON THU AND FRI WHEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS IS THE CASE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
HOWEVER WE WILL SEE SOME STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
AROUND 6.5 DEG C/KM COMBINED WITH MODERATE CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES
WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS PW VALUES REACH THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH
MARK OR THE 99TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING FOR THE MONTH
OF JUNE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS
EXPECTED.
BY SATURDAY...ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION
TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE
EXTENDED...SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES AT LOW END
SLIGHT...HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THEM COMPLETELY
FROM THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE GENERALLY RAIN FREE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST..HOWEVER DIURNAL STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE AND
THE REMNANT FRONT WILL TICK UP CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY ON THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH THE GFS THE DEEPEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE
INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT IT AT CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY STAY AROUND CLIMO..MID 80S
AND MID 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ON SAT AND
SUN...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW
90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
TROPICS...
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS
PICKED UP BY THE MODELS WHICH GENERALLY MOVE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. SOME OF
THE MOISTURE FROM IT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO GA AND BRING PW VALUES
TO THE TOP OF THE SCALE LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THE REASON WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
30
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIDE MIXTURE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BY 14-16Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING AFTER 18Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA...DIMINISHING AFTER 22Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 14Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AT 6KT OR
LESS. AFTER 14Z WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 6-10KT RANGE AND BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN DIRECTION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS 12-18Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 67 86 71 / 40 10 10 20
ATLANTA 84 69 86 73 / 30 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 80 60 80 66 / 30 10 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 85 62 86 70 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 88 70 89 76 / 70 20 20 10
GAINESVILLE 84 67 84 70 / 30 10 10 20
MACON 86 68 89 72 / 70 30 20 20
ROME 85 62 86 70 / 30 10 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 86 65 87 71 / 40 10 10 10
VIDALIA 88 71 89 73 / 60 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER FOR TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY FROM LINCOLN SOUTH WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
PLEASANT HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL/NE IL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI THAT DRIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND STRENGTHENS TO 1023 MB BY SUNSET.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STRATUS DECK SLOWLY ERODING...BUT STILL IMPACTING SRN TERMINALS.
AREAS THAT SAW SOME CLEARING IN THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING A COUPLE
HOURS OF BR. OTHER THAN THAT...LIGHT WINDS AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER THE REGION. AND SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CU RULE REDEVELOP THE CU LATE MORNING. BEYOND THE DAYS
CU AND LIGHT WINDS...A BIT OF SCT CIRRUS IN THE EVENING...WHICH
WILL SPILL OVER TO TOMORROW MORNING.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STUBBORN STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE...BUT IS
STEADILY CONTRACTING UPON ITSELF AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. STILL SEEING SOME LOWER 60S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AT 2 AM...BUT TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WHERE MORE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WITH
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
LATEST RAP MODEL 925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
NORTHERN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS...AND SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...CU RULE
KEEPS SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70...BUT BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING STILL
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN IN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW NOT
PROVIDING FOR MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FROM I-55 WEST...WITH
AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
MAINLY BE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHOULD START OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CREEP
ACROSS ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF I-57 DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 40
PERCENT EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW A WIDER VARIATION OF SOLUTIONS AS UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS A BIT MORE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR CANADIAN MODELS AS IT LINGERS SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS THE LATTER
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND FOCUS THE
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. WHILE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MENTIONED ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE...HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT
IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND BACK TO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS SOME SIGNS OF
A COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN SETTING UP...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MOST
PROMINENT IN THAT REGARD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PRETTY MUCH DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AM USING THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS RANGE...AS THE GFS SEEMS A BIT SUSPICIOUS
WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER MISSOURI.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
659 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STUBBORN STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE...BUT IS
STEADILY CONTRACTING UPON ITSELF AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. STILL SEEING SOME LOWER 60S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AT 2 AM...BUT TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WHERE MORE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WITH
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
LATEST RAP MODEL 925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
NORTHERN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS...AND SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...CU RULE
KEEPS SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70...BUT BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING STILL
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN IN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW NOT
PROVIDING FOR MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FROM I-55 WEST...WITH
AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
MAINLY BE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHOULD START OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CREEP
ACROSS ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF I-57 DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 40
PERCENT EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW A WIDER VARIATION OF SOLUTIONS AS UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS A BIT MORE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR CANADIAN MODELS AS IT LINGERS SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS THE LATTER
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND FOCUS THE
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. WHILE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MENTIONED ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE...HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT
IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND BACK TO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS SOME SIGNS OF
A COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN SETTING UP...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MOST
PROMINENT IN THAT REGARD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PRETTY MUCH DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AM USING THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS RANGE...AS THE GFS SEEMS A BIT SUSPICIOUS
WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER MISSOURI.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STRATUS DECK SLOWLY ERODING...BUT STILL IMPACTING SRN TERMINALS.
AREAS THAT SAW SOME CLEARING IN THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING A COUPLE
HOURS OF BR. OTHER THAN THAT...LIGHT WINDS AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER THE REGION. AND SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS/CU RULE REDEVELOP THE CU LATE MORNING. BEYOND THE DAYS
CU AND LIGHT WINDS...A BIT OF SCT CIRRUS IN THE EVENING...WHICH
WILL SPILL OVER TO TOMORROW MORNING.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1028 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SET
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S(F) NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE 50S(F) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY...WITH THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY. THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH A LOW FORMING
WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
HOT 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
AXIS...AROUND +32C INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
NEAR 100 DEGREES OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THE INHERITED
FORECAST ALREADY HAD 99 GOING OUT WEST AND SEE NO REAL REASON TO
CHANGE THIS. THE GREATER QUESTION IS HOW FAR THIS HEAT WILL EXTEND
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. FEEL THE RAP MODEL IS TOO HOT GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORIES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WILL BE FROM AROUND THE
OLD DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH STILL. THE NAM12 MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL
HOLDING INTO 80S ALL THE WAY WEST TO HIGHWAY 283. FOR THE 283
CORRIDOR FROM JETMORE TO DODGE TO ASHLAND WILL BE GOING WITH 93-94F
AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...THE MCS ACROSS WEST TEXAS HAS DISRUPTED
THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW THAT RECOVERS LATER
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING WITH STRONG SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DEWPOINTS
IN THE 54 TO 57F RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2200 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH CLASSIC 90-DEGREE TURNING OF WINDS IN THE 850-500MB LAYER
RESULTING IN 35 TO 42 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM AGL LAYER.
COMBINED...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TWO-INCH DIAMETER OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
LARGER HAIL...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 70 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT
LOOKS QUITE SLIM GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. BY THE TIME THE LCL HEIGHTS LOWER AT THE ONSET OF
SUNSET...STORMS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY GROWN UPSCALE ENOUGH WITH THE
SUPERCELL WINDOW CLOSING. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR THE BEST AREA FOR
A SMALL MCS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAKES SENSE SINCE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN
A TRADITIONAL FAVORED AREA ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS BACA
COUNTY, COLORADO. OTHER SMALLER (YET STILL CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER) ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND TRACK
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHT RISK
AREA LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...BUT LOCALLY IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
(GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF AN ASHLAND TO MONTEZUMA TO JOHNSON
LINE).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY:
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SBCAPE OF AROUND 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 45-50 KN OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DO SHOW ADEQUATE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THERE ARE TWO PROBLEM AREAS THOUGH
WITH THE KINEMATIC PROFILE...FIRST IS WEAK FLOW AROUND 700 HPA AND THEN
WEAK 5-10 KM BULK SHEAR. THE FIRST WILL CUT DOWN ON TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE SECOND COULD INCREASE BENEFICIAL COMPETITION FOR HAIL EMBRYOS AND
CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF CONVECTION
CAN REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. HERE...AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DRIFTING ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAKER BUT THE NAM STILL SHOWS SUFFICIENT POST FRONTAL DEWPOINTS.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS AREA IS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND PERHAPS 70 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONGEALS
INTO A QLCS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE THREATS...SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY:
SFC TO 850 HPA WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL STILL BE UPSLOPE WEDNESDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY COOL AT 12 DEG C (BETWEEN THE 25TH
AND 50TH PERCENTILE). THIS PATTERN FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT OF LINGERING CONVECTION, CLOUD COVER, AND UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE
DECREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S DEG F AND TAPERED
POPS NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS SLIPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
A DRIER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE GFS IS WETTER THAN
THE ECMWF (NO SURPRISE), SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THEN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A SYNOPTIC
WAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS. BY SUNDAY, AMPLIFICATION OF A 500 HPA
RIDGE FAVORS A DRIER FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WIND MAGNITUDE AND CONVECTION ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE TAFS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE 20-30 KN THROUGH LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BEST INDICATION FOR IMPACTS TO TERMINALS IN TERMS
OF CONVECTION WILL BE AT KGCK/KDDC THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN
PROB30 THERE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 62 88 63 / 20 20 30 40
GCK 97 62 86 61 / 20 20 30 40
EHA 99 62 88 60 / 30 30 40 50
LBL 99 62 90 62 / 40 40 40 50
HYS 88 62 80 60 / 0 20 20 40
P28 89 65 89 63 / 10 20 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AS OF 0830 UTC SHOWED AN ENHANCEMENT IN WATER VAPOR
FROM A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER WEST TEXAS AND
FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS MCS WAS LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF MOISTURE AND ALSO TIED TO THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE POLAR JET WAS ALSO ACTIVE
WITH A COMPACT, YET FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA.
THIS FEATURE CONTRIBUTED TO LOWERING OF SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE 0800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALED A 997MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WITH 1002MB LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY...WITH THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY. THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH A LOW FORMING
WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
HOT 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
AXIS...AROUND +32C INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
NEAR 100 DEGREES OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THE INHERITED
FORECAST ALREADY HAD 99 GOING OUT WEST AND SEE NO REAL REASON TO
CHANGE THIS. THE GREATER QUESTION IS HOW FAR THIS HEAT WILL EXTEND
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. FEEL THE RAP MODEL IS TOO HOT GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORIES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WILL BE FROM AROUND THE
OLD DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH STILL. THE NAM12 MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL
HOLDING INTO 80S ALL THE WAY WEST TO HIGHWAY 283. FOR THE 283
CORRIDOR FROM JETMORE TO DODGE TO ASHLAND WILL BE GOING WITH 93-94F
AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...THE MCS ACROSS WEST TEXAS HAS DISRUPTED
THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW THAT RECOVERS LATER
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING WITH STRONG SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DEWPOINTS
IN THE 54 TO 57F RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2200 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH CLASSIC 90-DEGREE TURNING OF WINDS IN THE 850-500MB LAYER
RESULTING IN 35 TO 42 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM AGL LAYER.
COMBINED...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TWO-INCH DIAMETER OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
LARGER HAIL...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 70 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT
LOOKS QUITE SLIM GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. BY THE TIME THE LCL HEIGHTS LOWER AT THE ONSET OF
SUNSET...STORMS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY GROWN UPSCALE ENOUGH WITH THE
SUPERCELL WINDOW CLOSING. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR THE BEST AREA FOR
A SMALL MCS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAKES SENSE SINCE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN
A TRADITIONAL FAVORED AREA ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS BACA
COUNTY, COLORADO. OTHER SMALLER (YET STILL CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER) ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND TRACK
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHT RISK
AREA LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...BUT LOCALLY IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
(GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF AN ASHLAND TO MONTEZUMA TO JOHNSON
LINE).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY:
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SBCAPE OF AROUND 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 45-50 KN OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DO SHOW ADEQUATE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THERE ARE TWO PROBLEM AREAS THOUGH
WITH THE KINEMATIC PROFILE...FIRST IS WEAK FLOW AROUND 700 HPA AND THEN
WEAK 5-10 KM BULK SHEAR. THE FIRST WILL CUT DOWN ON TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE SECOND COULD INCREASE BENEFICIAL COMPETITION FOR HAIL EMBRYOS AND
CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF CONVECTION
CAN REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. HERE...AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DRIFTING ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAKER BUT THE NAM STILL SHOWS SUFFICIENT POST FRONTAL DEWPOINTS.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS AREA IS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND PERHAPS 70 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONGEALS
INTO A QLCS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE THREATS...SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY:
SFC TO 850 HPA WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL STILL BE UPSLOPE WEDNESDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY COOL AT 12 DEG C (BETWEEN THE 25TH
AND 50TH PERCENTILE). THIS PATTERN FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT OF LINGERING CONVECTION, CLOUD COVER, AND UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE
DECREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S DEG F AND TAPERED
POPS NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS SLIPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
A DRIER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE GFS IS WETTER THAN
THE ECMWF (NO SURPRISE), SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THEN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A SYNOPTIC
WAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS. BY SUNDAY, AMPLIFICATION OF A 500 HPA
RIDGE FAVORS A DRIER FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WIND MAGNITUDE AND CONVECTION ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE TAFS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE 20-30 KN THROUGH LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BEST INDICATION FOR IMPACTS TO TERMINALS IN TERMS
OF CONVECTION WILL BE AT KGCK/KDDC THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN
PROB30 THERE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 62 88 63 / 10 20 30 40
GCK 97 61 86 61 / 20 20 30 40
EHA 99 62 88 60 / 30 30 40 50
LBL 99 62 90 62 / 40 40 40 50
HYS 88 62 80 60 / 10 20 20 40
P28 89 65 89 63 / 10 20 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1116 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY
EARLY TUESDAY...STALLING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD...AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT. ONE
OF THESE LOWS MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD 80 DEGREES THIS MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS IN HEAVIER PCP INLAND RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
LOWER. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VERY WARM AND
MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH TODAY. WITH PCP
WATER VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES IN A DEEP NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN
AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 70S...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AS MAIN THREAT
AS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH. THE MEAN STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH AND THEREFORE SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHER RES MODELS AND STABILITY
PARAMETERS POINTING TO BEST ACTIVITY UP THROUGH 3PM TO 4PM AND
TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH BEST DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. A FEW PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL RIDE THROUGH THE AREA ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. RUC SHOWED MORE POTENT ONE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AS ANOTHER ONE MOVES UP THROUGH SC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL WILL SEE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXITING THE COAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS AT TIMES. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80 MOST PLACES.
ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL LOCATED A GOOD DISTANCE TO THE WEST
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST PUSHING THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
SHORE EARLY TUES MORNING. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING LEAVING CLOUDS AND AREA OF FOG IN THEIR WAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TUE. FRONTS MOVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WARRANTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR FIRST HALF OF TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. MID LEVEL PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS
QUITE WEAK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION. MID LEVELS
DRY OUT LATER TUE AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN ON WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
SOUTHWEST WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES LATER WED AND
WED NIGHT BUT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM OR
MID LEVEL SUPPORT CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER WED AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK. THU
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED...THOUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS PUSHED INLAND AND
DISSIPATES THU BUT IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.
FRI AND BEYOND THE PREVIOUS INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS EVAPORATED. NOW SEEING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES POPPING UP WITHIN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. LACK OF STEERING AND ENHANCING
FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TAKE
SHAPE...IS GIVING THE GUIDANCE FITS AND KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. IF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IT IS LIKELY TO MEANDER AROUND THE GULF UNTIL
MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRI CAPTURES
IT. ONCE THE TROUGH PICKS IT UP THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PATHS VARY FROM WEST OF THE ILM FORECAST
AREA TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI INTO SAT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSITIONING
FROM TROPICAL TO BAROCLINIC AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.
BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL HELP DRY
THE REGION OUT AND LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS THE PERIOD
ENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. LOW LFC`S COMBINED WITH HEATING TODAY WILL KICK OFF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY...GUSTY IN CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS IT PASSES
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED...ALBEIT
LIGHT. SOME IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL PRODUCE A
MAINLY S TO SSW WIND CLOSER TO 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THIS EVENING...AND FURTHER VEER TO THE W
TO NW DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP DOWN TO TO 10 KTS OR SO TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK TODAY...WITH 3 TO 4 FT...AND A FEW 5
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE NOW A COMBINATION OF A SOMEWHAT DECAYED 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND THE LOCALLY PRODUCED 2 TO 4 FOOT
WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. THE SHORT
PERIOD WIND WAVES HAS NOW BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT.
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE WATERS AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIGHT INTO TUE EVENING. GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED WED
AND WED NIGHT WITH 15 TO 20 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE DAY. GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE AS THE PERIOD ENDS. WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY WED NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE RESPOND TO INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WED...BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST THU AS WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK INTO THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS BARELY EXCEEDING 10 KT.
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST AS GULF
OF MEXICO LOW HAS POTENTIAL TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANY WIND
DIRECTION DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS ALSO IN
QUESTION WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN WEAK
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SOLUTION WITH SPEEDS CAPPED AT 15 KT FOR
NOW. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUESDAY...STALLING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD...AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
OFFSHORE FRONT. ONE OF THESE LOWS MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...MID-LEVEL VORT/IMPULSE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY
FORCING DYNAMICS TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CAROLINAS DURING THESE EARLY MORNING MONDAY HOURS. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES 3 IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES...INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS ONE...INFLUENCING PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT.
CURRENTLY IT IS DRAPED NE-SW ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...FROM THE NE STATES TO THE FLORIDA PAN HANDLE. THE SFC
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ESE DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER S/W TROF. MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ILM CWA LATE TONIGHT AND OFF THE MAINLAND JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DROP
TO CHANCE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INSTABILITY
ALREADY ACROSS THE FA...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AS THE DAYS
INSOLATION INCREASES. LATEST HRRR SFC BASED CAPE ILLUSTRATES THIS
WELL. LATEST NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED
AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA TODAY WITH PWS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...UP TO 15 KT. THEREFORE...WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE HWO...WILL
MAKE NOTE THAT THE USUAL NUISANCE TYPE SHORT DURATION FLOODING OR
PONDING COULD OCCUR.
FOR TODAYS MAX...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO THE LATEST GFS MOS. CLOUDINESS AND PCPN
COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS. ANY REMOTE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD/PCPN
SHIELD TODAY COULD PUSH MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE GFS OUTPUT. MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS AND SEE NO REASON TO
DETOUR FROM THEIR NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY WITH CAA LAGGING BEHIND THE
CFP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TUE. FRONTS MOVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WARRANTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR FIRST HALF OF TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. MID LEVEL PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS
QUITE WEAK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION. MID LEVELS
DRY OUT LATER TUE AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN ON WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
SOUTHWEST WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES LATER WED AND
WED NIGHT BUT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM OR
MID LEVEL SUPPORT CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER WED AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK. THU
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED...THOUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS PUSHED INLAND AND
DISSIPATES THU BUT IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.
FRI AND BEYOND THE PREVIOUS INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS EVAPORATED. NOW SEEING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES POPPING UP WITHIN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. LACK OF STEERING AND ENHANCING
FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TAKE
SHAPE...IS GIVING THE GUIDANCE FITS AND KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. IF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IT IS LIKELY TO MEANDER AROUND THE GULF UNTIL
MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRI CAPTURES
IT. ONCE THE TROUGH PICKS IT UP THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PATHS VARY FROM WEST OF THE ILM FORECAST
AREA TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI INTO SAT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSITIONING
FROM TROPICAL TO BAROCLINIC AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.
BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL HELP DRY
THE REGION OUT AND LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS THE PERIOD
ENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. LOW LFC`S COMBINED WITH HEATING TODAY WILL KICK OFF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY...GUSTY IN CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS IT PASSES
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED...ALBEIT
LIGHT. SOME IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL PRODUCE A
MAINLY S TO SSW WIND AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. IN
THE VICINITY OF MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES PAST THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RELAX THE SFC PG...AND ESPECIALLY JUST
PRIOR TO AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTS PASSAGE AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SW THIS EVENING...AND FURTHER VEER TO THE W TO NW
DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
KT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS SIMILAR IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT OFF THE MAINLAND AT OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TUE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK TODAY...WITH 3 TO 4 FT...AND A FEW 5
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE NOW A COMBINATION OF A SOMEWHAT DECAYED 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND THE LOCALLY PRODUCED 2 TO 4 FOOT
WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. THE SHORT
PERIOD WIND WAVES HAS NOW BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT.
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE WATERS AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIGHT INTO TUE EVENING. GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED WED
AND WED NIGHT WITH 15 TO 20 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE DAY. GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE AS THE PERIOD ENDS. WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY WED NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE RESPOND TO INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WED...BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST THU AS WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK INTO THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS BARELY EXCEEDING 10 KT.
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST AS GULF
OF MEXICO LOW HAS POTENTIAL TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANY WIND
DIRECTION DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS ALSO IN
QUESTION WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN WEAK
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SOLUTION WITH SPEEDS CAPPED AT 15 KT FOR
NOW. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUESDAY...STALLING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD...AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
OFFSHORE FRONT. ONE OF THESE LOWS MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...MID-LEVEL VORT/IMPULSE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY
FORCING DYNAMICS TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CAROLINAS DURING THESE EARLY MORNING MONDAY HOURS. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES 3 IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES...INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS ONE...INFLUENCING PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT.
CURRENTLY IT IS DRAPED NE-SW ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...FROM THE NE STATES TO THE FLORIDA PAN HANDLE. THE SFC
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ESE DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER S/W TROF. MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ILM CWA LATE TONIGHT AND OFF THE MAINLAND JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DROP
TO CHANCE BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INSTABILITY
ALREADY ACROSS THE FA...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AS THE DAYS
INSOLATION INCREASES. LATEST HRRR SFC BASED CAPE ILLUSTRATES THIS
WELL. LATEST NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED
AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA TODAY WITH PWS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...UP TO 15 KT. THEREFORE...WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE HWO...WILL
MAKE NOTE THAT THE USUAL NUISANCE TYPE SHORT DURATION FLOODING OR
PONDING COULD OCCUR.
FOR TODAYS MAX...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO THE LATEST GFS MOS. CLOUDINESS AND PCPN
COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS. ANY REMOTE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD/PCPN
SHIELD TODAY COULD PUSH MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE GFS OUTPUT. MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS AND SEE NO REASON TO
DETOUR FROM THEIR NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY WITH CAA LAGGING BEHIND THE
CFP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TUE. FRONTS MOVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WARRANTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR FIRST HALF OF TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. MID LEVEL PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT IS
QUITE WEAK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION. MID LEVELS
DRY OUT LATER TUE AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN ON WED AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
SOUTHWEST WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES LATER WED AND
WED NIGHT BUT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM OR
MID LEVEL SUPPORT CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER WED AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK. THU
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED...THOUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS PUSHED INLAND AND
DISSIPATES THU BUT IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.
FRI AND BEYOND THE PREVIOUS INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS EVAPORATED. NOW SEEING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES POPPING UP WITHIN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. LACK OF STEERING AND ENHANCING
FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TAKE
SHAPE...IS GIVING THE GUIDANCE FITS AND KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. IF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IT IS LIKELY TO MEANDER AROUND THE GULF UNTIL
MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRI CAPTURES
IT. ONCE THE TROUGH PICKS IT UP THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PATHS VARY FROM WEST OF THE ILM FORECAST
AREA TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI INTO SAT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSITIONING
FROM TROPICAL TO BAROCLINIC AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.
BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL HELP DRY
THE REGION OUT AND LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS THE PERIOD
ENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WET TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE AS A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TAPS INTO DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA. EARLIER LINE OF STORMS WEST OF THE TERMINALS HAS WEAKENED TO
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO SHRA FOR
KFLO/KLBT EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR INLAND AND IFR/MVFR ALONG THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BREAKOUT AFTER 12Z WITH BETTER
UPPER FORCING AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL WITH TEMPO IFR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS FROM
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...HAVE INDICATED THE TSRA POTENTIAL
WITHIN THAT TIME FRAME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TSRA OR VCTS
OCCURS ANYTIME THROUGHOUT TODAY...AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN S/SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...EXCEPT AROUND
OR 10 TO 15 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AFTER 00Z WITH RAIN CHANCES ALSO DIMINISHING AS WELL. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE INLAND TERMINALS BY 06Z TUE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED PCPN CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL PRODUCE A
MAINLY S TO SSW WIND AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. IN
THE VICINITY OF MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES PAST THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RELAX THE SFC PG...AND ESPECIALLY JUST
PRIOR TO AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTS PASSAGE AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SW THIS EVENING...AND FURTHER VEER TO THE W TO NW
DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
KT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS SIMILAR IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT OFF THE MAINLAND AT OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TUE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK TODAY...WITH 3 TO 4 FT...AND A FEW 5
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE NOW A COMBINATION OF A SOMEWHAT DECAYED 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND THE LOCALLY PRODUCED 2 TO 4 FOOT
WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. THE SHORT
PERIOD WIND WAVES HAS NOW BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT.
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE WATERS AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIGHT INTO TUE EVENING. GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED WED
AND WED NIGHT WITH 15 TO 20 KT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE DAY. GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE AS THE PERIOD ENDS. WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY WED NIGHT AS CENTER OF HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE RESPOND TO INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WED...BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST THU AS WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK INTO THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS BARELY EXCEEDING 10 KT.
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST AS GULF
OF MEXICO LOW HAS POTENTIAL TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANY WIND
DIRECTION DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS ALSO IN
QUESTION WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS RESULTS IN WEAK
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SOLUTION WITH SPEEDS CAPPED AT 15 KT FOR
NOW. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH MAINLY 700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PROPAGATES AWAY
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA...AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR EAST THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT...AND
IF IT WILL STAY TOGETHER OR BREAK APART. FOLLOWING THE 12Z HRRR AS
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS BAND TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THIS BAND AND
GRADUALLY LOWERED COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 03Z...AND MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST (WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN THE FORECAST). CURRENT
TEMPERATURE VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY (WHERE SKY IS
CLEAR) ARE A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED DIURNAL TREND. WILL
RAISE MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS A RESULT...BUT THICKENING
CLOUDS SHOULD STILL LIMIT THINGS A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
LOWEST TEMP AS OF 08Z WAS 31 AT MNDOT SITE NEAR WASKISH AND 32 AT
SHOOKS ALL IN FAR EASTERN BELTRAMI COUNTY MN. WILL MAINTAIN FROST
ADV THRU 12Z.
NEXT IN THE SERIES OF 500 MB SYSTEMS IN WESTERN MONTANA WITH RAIN
INTO CENTRAL MONTANA AND A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS INTO FAR SW ND
AND WRN SD MORE IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE RETURN AT 850-700MB. FOR
TODAY...WILL SEE INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH
INCREASE IN THE 850-700MB MOISTURE SPREAD EAST...THOUGH FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ALL DAY AS DRY
AIR JUST WEST OF AN UPPER LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO BLOCKS MOISTURE
FROM MOVING IN. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO AREAS FROM
SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE TOWARD VALLEY CITY-FORMAN 15-18Z PERIOD WITH
RISK OF SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH LIMITED POPS
THRU 23Z GENERALLY SOUTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND FORKS TO WADENA LINE.
TONIGHT WILL SEE UPPER LOW MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND WITH 40KT LOW
LEVEL JET INTO SCNTRL-SE ND AND SHOWWALTERS TO NEGATIVE 3 AND A
COUPLE HUNDRED MUCAPE 06Z-12Z TUE. THUS SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY IN THIS REGION AND AGREE WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME HEAVIER
QPF CONCENTRATED IN SE ND. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO
SCNTRL ND TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED COUPLE HUNDRED MUCAPE AND
NEGATIVE SHOWWATLERS INTO SE ND AND THUS BETTER BET FOR CONVECTION
AND A BIT HEAVIER QPF IN THAT REGION. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FCST AREA AND KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS
MUCH LOWER CAVALIER OVER TOWARD BAUDETTE. GOOD NEWS OVERALL IS
THAT MOISTURE THIS TIME AROUND NOT AS DEEP WITH DEW PTS ONLY IN
THE 50S AND PWATS BARELY OVER AN INCH...COMPARED TO OVER 1.50
INCHES IN THE LAST UPPER LOW EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVE THRU SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN TUES NIGHT WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONCENTRATE BEST RAIN IN THAT AREA. TOTAL
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 1.30 INCHES IN REGION
SOUTH OF A DVL-GFK-PKD LINE...TAPERING TO UNDER HALF INCH LANGDON
TO ROSEAU AND BAUDETTE. SRN FCST AREA CAN HANDLE MORE RAIN THAN
THE NRN VALLEY. WILL FRESHEN UP THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK THAT WAS
ISSUED SUNDAY AFTN...BUT MODEL TRENDS FOLLOW CLOSELY FROM WHAT WAS
SHOWN YESTERDAY.
UPPER LOW AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME CLEARING ENTERING NE ND WED AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM OF THE EARLIER PERIODS WILL BE JUST
EAST OF THE CWFA. GEM AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER
FAR EAST. WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
HAVE OPTED FOR CONSENSUS BLEND THAT IS DRY. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GEM/ECMWF SHOWING LOW POPS
TARGETING THE WEST WITH UPPER WAVE. GFS IS THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND
WOULD ARGUE THAT FRIDAY WOULD BE DRY.
BLOCKY PATTERN IS THE REASON FOR DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN MODELS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS FORCES A REX TYPE BLOCK TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH FORCES ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA.
ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAS LESS BLOCKING AND MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE DIGGING
INTO AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO NORTH DAKOTA. DGEX IS QUITE WOUND
UP BY 00Z SUNDAY.
IN EITHER EVENT ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSING THE CWFA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH RELATIVELY COLD 700MB TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY JUNE...CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND VARIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED THE BLENDS WITH
POP.
GENERALLY SPEAKING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW MEDIAN VALUES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES. VARIANCES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH WINDS TURNING EASTERLY TO 10-15KTS OVER ERN ND. SOME
SHOWERS STARTING THIS EVE AT DVL/FAR WITH SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING
EAST OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS THRU 12Z TUES...BUT
SOME MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AFTER 06Z TUE AT FARGO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON AND THE FOREST AT MINTO CONTINUE TO FALL
ABOUT AS FORECAST. GRAFTON JUST A TAD SLOWER AND MINTO A BIT FASTER.
AT NECHE...THE PEMBINA RIVER MADE IT BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUES ITS RAPID RECESSION. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT
HALLOCK HAD A FLAT CREST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND IS
FALLING SLOWLY. IT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO MID WEEK.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DUE TO CONTINUED ROAD CLOSURES. OVERLAND FLOODING CONTINUES EAST
OF THE ESCARPMENT ON THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOD PLAIN AS DRAINAGE
IS HAMPERED BY HIGH RIVER LEVELS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE USUAL
VARIATIONS DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE. ISOLATED 2 INCH RAINFALLS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXCEPT IN ISOLATED CASES THE AREA SOUTH OF THE I-94 / U.S. 10
CORRIDOR HAS BEEN THE DRIEST THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEKS. THE FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME RISES TO AREA RIVERS... WITH
THE IMPACTS DEPENDENT ON TOTALS...AREAL COVERAGE AND RATE OF FALL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1022 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 13Z SURFACE SHOWS THAT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WAS MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPPER
AIR SURFACES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
WOULD EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS COUPLED
WITH THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THAT THE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THE
LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. THE EXCEPTION TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS THAT LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BAYS MAY ONLY
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. FOR NOW DO NOT EXPECT SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO HAVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S.
UPDATE FORTHCOMING FOR TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY...AND WINDS...AND
TO DROP MENTION OF FOG.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 69 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 70 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 75 88 77 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
MAINLY TO UPDATE EXPECTED POP AND SKY COVER TRENDS. REDUCED POPS
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT KEPT LIKELY POPS SOUTH FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...MUCAPE
VALUES ALREADY ABOVE 1000 J/KG EVERYWHERE ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT /WHICH IS SORT OF STRETCHED BETWEEN AHN AND CSG/ AND SBCAPE
VALUES INCHING UP AS WELL. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY KEEP
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA SO WILL WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND THEN MAKE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FROM
THERE. OVERALL TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK GOOD THOUGH
TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IF CLOUDS DO NOT BREAK UP AS
EXPECTED.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA CURRENTLY WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT REACHING CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
TONIGHT AND STALLING/WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH GEORGIA. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE
TODAY WITH A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING THROUGH TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT A
MINIMUM. INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR MAKES IT INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
FOR CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG DIURNAL BIAS.
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY SHOULD BE MODERATE ONCE
AGAIN BUT THE SAME LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHEAR WOULD
INDICATE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TUESDAY AS
WELL.
KEPT CLOSE TO MOS HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
20
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH A GENERAL
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IN
PLACE. THE DRIEST AIR THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE WEEK WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF GA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST TO BE AOA 1.25 INCHES WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY IS NEAR
NORMAL. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUES INTO WED TO ACCOUNT
FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS WHICH MAY FIRE UP DURING THE AFTN...WHICH
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.
BY LATE WED THROUGH FRI...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY
ON THU AND FRI WHEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS IS THE CASE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
HOWEVER WE WILL SEE SOME STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
AROUND 6.5 DEG C/KM COMBINED WITH MODERATE CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES
WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS PW VALUES REACH THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH
MARK OR THE 99TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING FOR THE MONTH
OF JUNE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS
EXPECTED.
BY SATURDAY...ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION
TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE
EXTENDED...SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES AT LOW END
SLIGHT...HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THEM COMPLETELY
FROM THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE GENERALLY RAIN FREE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST..HOWEVER DIURNAL STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE AND
THE REMNANT FRONT WILL TICK UP CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY ON THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH THE GFS THE DEEPEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE
INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT IT AT CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY STAY AROUND CLIMO..MID 80S
AND MID 60S. HOWEVER...WITH THE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ON SAT AND
SUN...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW
90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
TROPICS...
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS
PICKED UP BY THE MODELS WHICH GENERALLY MOVE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. SOME OF
THE MOISTURE FROM IT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO GA AND BRING PW VALUES
TO THE TOP OF THE SCALE LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THE REASON WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS OUT THERE THIS MORNING BUT MAINLY
SEEING LOW VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING SO
HAVE KEPT TREND OF TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. AS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH...CHANCE FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN METRO TAFS BUT HAVE ADDED IT TO MCN/CSG WITH MVFR
VSBY AT AHN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. WINDS GENERALLY
NW THROUGH TONIGHT BUT EXPECT SHIFT TO NE AND E STARTING AROUND
13Z TUESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION...LOW ON IMPACTING ATL TODAY.
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM ON LACK OF CIGS TUESDAY MORNING.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 67 86 71 / 50 20 10 20
ATLANTA 84 69 86 73 / 50 20 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 80 60 80 66 / 30 5 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 85 62 86 70 / 30 5 5 10
COLUMBUS 88 70 89 76 / 60 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 84 67 84 70 / 40 10 10 20
MACON 86 68 89 72 / 60 30 30 20
ROME 85 62 86 70 / 30 5 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 86 65 87 71 / 50 20 10 10
VIDALIA 88 71 89 73 / 60 30 40 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER FOR TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY FROM LINCOLN SOUTH WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
PLEASANT HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL/NE IL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI THAT DRIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND STRENGTHENS TO 1023 MB BY SUNSET.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINAL
AIRPORTS NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM TUE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3.5-5K FT TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH LESS CLOUDS AT CMI AND PIA. EXPECT ENE WINDS 5-10 KTS WITH
FEW GUSTS 10-15 KTS ALONG I-74. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
AT SUNSET. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE TUE
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 8-13 KTS BY 15Z/10 AM TUE. 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAKE MI WILL STRENGTHEN TO 1024 MB OVER MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUE MORNING KEEPING FAIR WEATHER TO CENTRAL IL NEXT 24 HOURS.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING AT AND BELOW 850 MB WILL GIVE DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUE...WITH BROKEN CEILINGS
AT TIMES TODAY FROM 3.5-5K FT ESPECIALLY AT SPI...DEC AND BMI.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
STUBBORN STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE...BUT IS
STEADILY CONTRACTING UPON ITSELF AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. STILL SEEING SOME LOWER 60S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AT 2 AM...BUT TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTH HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WHERE MORE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WITH
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
LATEST RAP MODEL 925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
NORTHERN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS...AND SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...CU RULE
KEEPS SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70...BUT BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING STILL
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN IN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW NOT
PROVIDING FOR MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FROM I-55 WEST...WITH
AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
MAINLY BE LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHOULD START OPENING UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CREEP
ACROSS ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF I-57 DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 40
PERCENT EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO SHOW A WIDER VARIATION OF SOLUTIONS AS UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS A BIT MORE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR CANADIAN MODELS AS IT LINGERS SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHEREAS THE LATTER
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND FOCUS THE
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. WHILE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MENTIONED ON THURSDAY EVERYWHERE...HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT
IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND BACK TO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS SOME SIGNS OF
A COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN SETTING UP...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MOST
PROMINENT IN THAT REGARD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PRETTY MUCH DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AM USING THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS RANGE...AS THE GFS SEEMS A BIT SUSPICIOUS
WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER MISSOURI.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
439 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DRASTICALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES WHERE
STORMS CURRENTLY ARE AND WHERE THEY WILL MOVE OVER THE NEXT 3
HOURS. MODELS PLACE THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN MOVE IT EAST DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY SO AM
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THESE CURRENT STORMS WILL MOVE BEFORE
DWINDLING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF A CONCERN FOR WIND/RH MEETING RED
FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER. CONTACTED
THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO WHO BOTH SAID THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
LOOKING AT THE SURFACE MAP HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY WORKING
THEIR WAY INTO SHERMAN...WALLACE...AND GREELEY COUNTIES. NEAR THE
KS/CO BORDER THE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. HOWEVER
FURTHER WEST INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE SPOTTY. NEAR TERM MODELS DISAGREE AS
TO WHETHER THE GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE
LOCATIONS OR REMAIN GUSTY.
WITH THE REPORT OF NEAR CRITICAL FUELS FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES...WAS STRONGLY LEANING TOWARD ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITE. HOWEVER AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY THOSE COUNTIES ARE BARELY MEETING CRITERIA.
WITH THE ADDED UNCERTAINTY OF THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY HIGHLITE UNLESS
WINDS DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIR MASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW COOL TO MAKE IT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN STARTED OUT BEST AT JET LEVEL. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT
AT MID LEVELS. GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIFT GETTING BETTER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL MID LEVEL LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT REALLY DOES
NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR 06Z AND EVEN MORE SO BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT FOR AN EXPECTED GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THEY WANT TO
START PRECIPITATION WITH SOME START IN THE SOUTH AND GOING NORTH
AND VICE VERSA. TENDED TO BELIEVE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SOLUTION MORE
BUT THIS ALSO CAUSED ME TO BROAD BRUSH THE POPS. LOOKS TO BE ALL
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS
AND WHERE. SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD BUT HOW WET REMAINS IN QUESTION.
ENOUGH DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT I DID NOT GO ABOVE HIGH CHANCE.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
NO MATTER HOW WET IT GETS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW COOL TO MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. COOLEST SOLUTIONS...NAM/CANADIAN...KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
NOT READY TO MAKE THAT DRAMATIC OF A PLUNGE BUT DO SEE THE
POSSIBILITY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE
WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. DID LOWER MAXES BUT POSSIBILITY
IS THERE FOR MUCH MORE LOWERING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL AND JET LIFT
AROUND THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH IT DOES NOT WARM UP DURING THE DAY AND HOW FAST IT CLEARS
OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
DEFINITELY SEE A LOT OF 40S AROUND. DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED...DID TOSS IN SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING FOG. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STARTS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE WARMER BUT NOT
TOO MUCH SINCE WIND FIELD IS LIGHT DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH NOT BEING
TOO FAR AWAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AND SURFACE PATTERN/AIR
MASS REORGANIZES AND RECOVERS FROM PREVIOUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
STILL SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCE AND FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT FELT CONTENT IN
LEAVING IT DRY. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT FELT FINE WITH WHAT THE INIT GRIDS GAVE ME.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AS A
RESULT LEFT ALONE WHAT THE CRH INIT GRIDS GAVE ME. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE IT BEING A LITTLE COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE MINS...BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE TO MAKE ME
WANT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION....(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IN THE EARLY TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND MCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG KS/CO BORDER AND SHIFT EAST. BETTER
COVERAGE MAY BE AT KMCK...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL TO INCLUDE
MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LOW CIGS IS AT MCK WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 15Z. KGLD WILL
PROBABLY BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS AREA OF STRATUS...AND CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST WITH STRONGER WINDS LINGERING AT KMCK THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BY TUE MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
407 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF A CONCERN FOR WIND/RH MEETING RED
FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER. CONTACTED
THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO WHO BOTH SAID THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
LOOKING AT THE SURFACE MAP HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY WORKING
THEIR WAY INTO SHERMAN...WALLACE...AND GREELEY COUNTIES. NEAR THE
KS/CO BORDER THE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. HOWEVER
FURTHER WEST INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE SPOTTY. NEAR TERM MODELS DISAGREE AS
TO WHETHER THE GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE
LOCATIONS OR REMAIN GUSTY.
WITH THE REPORT OF NEAR CRITICAL FUELS FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES...WAS STRONGLY LEANING TOWARD ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITE. HOWEVER AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY THOSE COUNTIES ARE BARELY MEETING CRITERIA.
WITH THE ADDED UNCERTAINTY OF THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY HIGHLITE UNLESS
WINDS DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIR MASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW COOL TO MAKE IT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN STARTED OUT BEST AT JET LEVEL. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT
AT MID LEVELS. GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIFT GETTING BETTER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL MID LEVEL LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT REALLY DOES
NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR 06Z AND EVEN MORE SO BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT FOR AN EXPECTED GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THEY WANT TO
START PRECIPITATION WITH SOME START IN THE SOUTH AND GOING NORTH
AND VICE VERSA. TENDED TO BELIEVE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SOLUTION MORE
BUT THIS ALSO CAUSED ME TO BROAD BRUSH THE POPS. LOOKS TO BE ALL
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS
AND WHERE. SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD BUT HOW WET REMAINS IN QUESTION.
ENOUGH DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT I DID NOT GO ABOVE HIGH CHANCE.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
NO MATTER HOW WET IT GETS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW COOL TO MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. COOLEST SOLUTIONS...NAM/CANADIAN...KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
NOT READY TO MAKE THAT DRAMATIC OF A PLUNGE BUT DO SEE THE
POSSIBILITY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE
WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. DID LOWER MAXES BUT POSSIBILITY
IS THERE FOR MUCH MORE LOWERING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL AND JET LIFT
AROUND THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH IT DOES NOT WARM UP DURING THE DAY AND HOW FAST IT CLEARS
OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
DEFINITELY SEE A LOT OF 40S AROUND. DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED...DID TOSS IN SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING FOG. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STARTS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE WARMER BUT NOT
TOO MUCH SINCE WIND FIELD IS LIGHT DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH NOT BEING
TOO FAR AWAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AND SURFACE PATTERN/AIR
MASS REORGANIZES AND RECOVERS FROM PREVIOUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
STILL SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCE AND FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT FELT CONTENT IN
LEAVING IT DRY. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT FELT FINE WITH WHAT THE INIT GRIDS GAVE ME.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AS A
RESULT LEFT ALONE WHAT THE CRH INIT GRIDS GAVE ME. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE IT BEING A LITTLE COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE MINS...BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE TO MAKE ME
WANT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION....(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IN THE EARLY TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND MCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG KS/CO BORDER AND SHIFT EAST. BETTER
COVERAGE MAY BE AT KMCK...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL TO INCLUDE
MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LOW CIGS IS AT MCK WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 15Z. KGLD WILL
PROBABLY BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS AREA OF STRATUS...AND CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST WITH STRONGER WINDS LINGERING AT KMCK THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BY TUE MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENED
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW COOL TO MAKE IT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN STARTED OUT BEST AT JET LEVEL. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT
AT MID LEVELS. GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIFT GETTING BETTER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL MID LEVEL LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT REALLY DOES
NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR 06Z AND EVEN MORE SO BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT FOR AN EXPECTED GOOD RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. SO GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THEY WANT TO
START PRECIPITATION WITH SOME START IN THE SOUTH AND GOING NORTH
AND VICE VERSA. TENDED TO BELIEVE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SOLUTION MORE
BUT THIS ALSO CAUSED ME TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS. LOOKS TO BE ALL
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS
AND WHERE. SO WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP DURING THE DAY. THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD BUT HOW WET REMAINS IN QUESTION.
ENOUGH DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT I DID NOT GO ABOVE HIGH CHANCE.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED.
NO MATTER HOW WET IT GETS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW COOL TO MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. COOLEST SOLUTIONS...NAM/CANADIAN...KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH THE NAM NOT TOO FAR ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
NOT READY TO MAKE THAT DRAMATIC OF A PLUNGE BUT DO SEE THE
POSSIBILITY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE
WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. DID LOWER MAXES BUT POSSIBILITY
IS THERE FOR MUCH MORE LOWERING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL AND JET LIFT
AROUND THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH IT DOES NOT WARM UP DURING THE DAY AND HOW FAST IT CLEARS
OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
DEFINITELY SEE A LOT OF 40S AROUND. DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED...DID TOSS IN SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING FOG. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STARTS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE WARMER BUT NOT
TOO MUCH SINCE WIND FIELD IS LIGHT DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH NOT BEING
TOO FAR AWAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AND SURFACE PATTERN/AIR
MASS REORGANIZES AND RECOVERS FROM PREVIOUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
STILL SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCE AND FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT FELT CONTENT IN
LEAVING IT DRY. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT FELT FINE WITH WHAT THE INIT GRIDS GAVE ME.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. AS A
RESULT LEFT ALONE WHAT THE CRH INIT GRIDS GAVE ME. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE IT BEING A LITTLE COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE MINS...BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE TO MAKE ME
WANT TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION....(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IN THE EARLY TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND MCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG KS/CO BORDER AND SHIFT EAST. BETTER
COVERAGE MAY BE AT KMCK...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL TO INCLUDE
MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LOW CIGS IS AT MCK WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 15Z. KGLD WILL
PROBABLY BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS AREA OF STRATUS...AND CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST WITH STRONGER WINDS LINGERING AT KMCK THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BY TUE MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHEND
WITH DRY LINE/TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG KS/CO STATE
LINE.
THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TD VALUES EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY LED TO DEVELOPMENT
OF CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK ECHOS ALREADY ON
RADAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND BETTER SHEER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE HIGH LCL/LFC WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER IN THE
EASTERN CWA...SO I WOULDNT RULE OUT ISO TOR WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION
EARLY ON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH 00Z ACROSS THE EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/SREF/RAP. I KEPT POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE FOR
NOW...AND MAY NEED TO AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE. ITR IS CURRENTLY
MEETING MINIMUM CRITERIA...HOWEVER I AM NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A FULL
3HR WITH SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
EASTERN CWA...AS STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CWA AROUND 12Z...WITH HIGHS ABOUT
10-15F COOLER THAN TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. I
LIMITED POPS TO SW PART OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE...THOUGH I WOULDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING FURTHER EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
LONG TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN THURSDAY AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR SATURDAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF AND GFS IN TERMS OF HOW THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ECMWF HAS SHORTWAVE DISSIPATING AND RETURNING TO ZONAL FLOW
FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK JET...HOWEVER GFS HAS TROUGH EXTENDING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMING A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH HIGHER JET
SPEEDS FOR THE AREA. LOWER LEVEL JET REMAINS CALM FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 850 MB THETA E VALUES ARE
FORECASTED TO BE BETWEEN 330 AND 335 K...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. LOWER LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE
LOCALLY STRONG FOR THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER THE 850 MB PROFILE IS LESS SUPPORTIVE FOR
CONVECTION WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 315 TO 320 K.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
FORM AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRESENT IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GFS SHOWS DEW
POINTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S WITH SURFACE THETA E VALUES OF 340-345 K. ECMWF HAS LOWER
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...WITH DEW POINT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND
SURFACE THETA E VALUES IN THE 330-335 K RANGE. ENOUGH SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. CAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND LIFTED INDICES OF
BETWEEN -2 AND -4 C. SURFACE LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
REBOUND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
MONDAY...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE STORMS FOR THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT FAIR WEATHER WILL RESUME FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2013
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IN THE EARLY TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND MCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG KS/CO BORDER AND SHIFT EAST. BETTER
COVERAGE MAY BE AT KMCK...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL TO INCLUDE
MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LOW CIGS IS AT MCK WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 15Z. KGLD WILL
PROBABLY BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS AREA OF STRATUS...AND CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST WITH STRONGER WINDS LINGERING AT KMCK THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BY TUE MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1223 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SET
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S(F) NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE 50S(F) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY...WITH THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY. THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH A LOW FORMING
WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
HOT 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH
AXIS...AROUND +32C INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
NEAR 100 DEGREES OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THE INHERITED
FORECAST ALREADY HAD 99 GOING OUT WEST AND SEE NO REAL REASON TO
CHANGE THIS. THE GREATER QUESTION IS HOW FAR THIS HEAT WILL EXTEND
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. FEEL THE RAP MODEL IS TOO HOT GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORIES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WILL BE FROM AROUND THE
OLD DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH STILL. THE NAM12 MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL
HOLDING INTO 80S ALL THE WAY WEST TO HIGHWAY 283. FOR THE 283
CORRIDOR FROM JETMORE TO DODGE TO ASHLAND WILL BE GOING WITH 93-94F
AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...THE MCS ACROSS WEST TEXAS HAS DISRUPTED
THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW THAT RECOVERS LATER
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING WITH STRONG SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS DEWPOINTS
IN THE 54 TO 57F RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2200 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH CLASSIC 90-DEGREE TURNING OF WINDS IN THE 850-500MB LAYER
RESULTING IN 35 TO 42 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM AGL LAYER.
COMBINED...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TWO-INCH DIAMETER OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
LARGER HAIL...AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 70 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT
LOOKS QUITE SLIM GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. BY THE TIME THE LCL HEIGHTS LOWER AT THE ONSET OF
SUNSET...STORMS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY GROWN UPSCALE ENOUGH WITH THE
SUPERCELL WINDOW CLOSING. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR THE BEST AREA FOR
A SMALL MCS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAKES SENSE SINCE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN
A TRADITIONAL FAVORED AREA ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS BACA
COUNTY, COLORADO. OTHER SMALLER (YET STILL CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER) ROTATING STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND TRACK
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SLIGHT RISK
AREA LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...BUT LOCALLY IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
(GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF AN ASHLAND TO MONTEZUMA TO JOHNSON
LINE).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY:
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SBCAPE OF AROUND 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 45-50 KN OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DO SHOW ADEQUATE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THERE ARE TWO PROBLEM AREAS THOUGH
WITH THE KINEMATIC PROFILE...FIRST IS WEAK FLOW AROUND 700 HPA AND THEN
WEAK 5-10 KM BULK SHEAR. THE FIRST WILL CUT DOWN ON TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE SECOND COULD INCREASE BENEFICIAL COMPETITION FOR HAIL EMBRYOS AND
CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF CONVECTION
CAN REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. HERE...AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DRIFTING ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAKER BUT THE NAM STILL SHOWS SUFFICIENT POST FRONTAL DEWPOINTS.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS AREA IS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND PERHAPS 70 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONGEALS
INTO A QLCS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE THREATS...SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY:
SFC TO 850 HPA WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL STILL BE UPSLOPE WEDNESDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY COOL AT 12 DEG C (BETWEEN THE 25TH
AND 50TH PERCENTILE). THIS PATTERN FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT OF LINGERING CONVECTION, CLOUD COVER, AND UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE
DECREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S DEG F AND TAPERED
POPS NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS SLIPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
A DRIER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE GFS IS WETTER THAN
THE ECMWF (NO SURPRISE), SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THEN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A SYNOPTIC
WAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS. BY SUNDAY, AMPLIFICATION OF A 500 HPA
RIDGE FAVORS A DRIER FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER THAN IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS FOR WINDS, A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN
COLORADO WILL EDGE EAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, THEN
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 62 88 63 / 20 40 30 40
GCK 97 62 86 61 / 20 30 20 30
EHA 99 62 88 60 / 30 40 30 40
LBL 99 62 90 62 / 40 40 30 40
HYS 88 62 80 60 / 0 40 20 40
P28 89 65 89 63 / 10 40 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TOPEKA KS
1203 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
BOTH THE NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG
INVERSION CAPPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM ANY DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO THINKING IS THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INITIALLY COME FROM ANY CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OUT WEST. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 06Z OR LATER. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY...THINK ELEVATED CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE HI RES
SHORT TERM MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
A COOL START WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE.
THESE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LED TO
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT MADE THIS MORNING FEEL MORE LIKE
EARLY SPRING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
FOR TODAY...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE EXITING UPPER LOW PROGRESSING NORTHEAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SECOND UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. DESPITE SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN DECENT WAA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
MODELS SHOW A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO EASTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS NEAR
THIS SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...EXPECT
MORE INSOLATION AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE A STORMY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND STALLS ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY FAST AND ZONAL AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH...WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK
ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH
IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ACT TO PULL THE SURFACE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
PROVIDING DEEP ASCENT AND PERHAPS SOME ENHANCEMENT TO FOCUSED
AREAS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS LIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE TROUGH
WILL OUTRUN THE CONVECTION... AND STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE ROOTED IN THE ZONE OF REMNANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO THE MOST
UNSTABLE ELEVATED LAYER. IF THIS HAPPENS...COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE DAY SEEMS TO
BE LOW AND PROBABLY LIMITED TO HAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AS THE EVOLUTION OF MORNING CONVECTION WILL
PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SOME TIME FOR ATMOSPHERIC
RECOVERY AFTER EARLY CONVECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE FED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WARM MOIST
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS SO IT MAY NOT BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF ANY EARLY DAY STORMS. WIND
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY...WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE PARCELS WILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY AS OPPOSED TO ELEVATED STORMS.
IF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...WOULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND...AND A LOW END TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IF THE FORECAST
AREA IS LIMITED TO ELEVATED CONVECTION...THEN IT WOULD BE HARD TO
SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
HAIL.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND DEPENDING HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES...AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MAY EXIST VERY NEAR THE
FRONT...PROBABLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WHILE AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
FEEDS OVER THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT...OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS...FOR THURSDAY AND STAY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONAL AND
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S MOST DAYS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S LATE IN THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION. THERE APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR
ELEVATED STORM FORMATION BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...FOR THE INCLUSION
OF SOME VCTS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF THESE STORMS
PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE DEFINITE IN THE TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP. HOWEVER THINKING THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO BRING MVFR CIGS IN JUST YET AS THE MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1202 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
BOTH THE NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY STRONG
INVERSION CAPPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM ANY DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO THINKING IS THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INITIALLY COME FROM ANY CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OUT WEST. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 06Z OR LATER. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY...THINK ELEVATED CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE HI RES
SHORT TERM MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
A COOL START WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE.
THESE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LED TO
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT MADE THIS MORNING FEEL MORE LIKE
EARLY SPRING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
FOR TODAY...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE EXITING UPPER LOW PROGRESSING NORTHEAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SECOND UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. DESPITE SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN DECENT WAA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
MODELS SHOW A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO EASTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS NEAR
THIS SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...EXPECT
MORE INSOLATION AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE A STORMY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND STALLS ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY FAST AND ZONAL AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH...WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK
ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH
IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ACT TO PULL THE SURFACE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
PROVIDING DEEP ASCENT AND PERHAPS SOME ENHANCEMENT TO FOCUSED
AREAS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS LIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE TROUGH
WILL OUTRUN THE CONVECTION... AND STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE ROOTED IN THE ZONE OF REMNANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO THE MOST
UNSTABLE ELEVATED LAYER. IF THIS HAPPENS...COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE DAY SEEMS TO
BE LOW AND PROBABLY LIMITED TO HAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AS THE EVOLUTION OF MORNING CONVECTION WILL
PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SOME TIME FOR ATMOSPHERIC
RECOVERY AFTER EARLY CONVECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE FED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WARM MOIST
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS SO IT MAY NOT BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF ANY EARLY DAY STORMS. WIND
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY...WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE PARCELS WILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY AS OPPOSED TO ELEVATED STORMS.
IF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...WOULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND...AND A LOW END TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IF THE FORECAST
AREA IS LIMITED TO ELEVATED CONVECTION...THEN IT WOULD BE HARD TO
SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
HAIL.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND DEPENDING HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES...AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MAY EXIST VERY NEAR THE
FRONT...PROBABLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WHILE AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
FEEDS OVER THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT...OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS...FOR THURSDAY AND STAY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONAL AND
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S MOST DAYS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S LATE IN THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION. THERE APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR
ELEVATED STORM FORMATION BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...FOR THE INCLUSION
OF SOME VCTS. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF THESE STORMS
PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE DEFINITE IN THE TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIP. HOWEVER THINKING THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO BRING MVFR CIGS IN JUST YET AS THE MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN
ONTARIO(NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR) AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN CONFLUENT NW FLOW INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN LAKES. WITH
CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER
30S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING THE
REGIONAL...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS 850
MB TEMPS IN THE 2C TO 5C RANGE ALLOW MAX READINGS TO REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB ALONG WITH MEAN
MIXING RATIO AROUND 3 G/KG SUPPORT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 20S INLAND...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE.
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWAT VALUES 30-40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN NEAR THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN
VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS...PER MODELS 700-400 RH TRENDS...MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS LOW AS MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY
AGAIN DEVELOP...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD FROST
REQUIRING HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH
MID CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IN THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FARTHER EAST...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES WITH THE BETTER
MIXING. HAVE MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT...BUT WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DON/T EXPECT MUCH
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BEST FORCING STILL
CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED IN WISCONSIN...BUT DOES BRUSH THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE 00Z GFS HAS
SHIFTED FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM. WILL NOT INCORPORATE INTO THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCH TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
FARTHER NORTHEAST...THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL KEEP DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR IN PLACE AND SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA DRY OR JUST HAVING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT KEPT VALUES ONLY AROUND
0.3-0.4IN IN THAT AREA AND NOT GOING AS HIGH AS NAM/GFS. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS...EXPECT COOLEST HIGHS OVER
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE
DECREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WILL TRY TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP A
FEW DEGREES...BUT VALUES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY AND GENERALLY SUNNY DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON THE HIGHS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR 70 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW SOON THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR SUNDAY...WHICH PRODUCES CHANCE POPS
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013
MAINLY LIGHT N TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLY BY FRIDAY...WHILE A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER FAR
W LAKE SUPERIOR FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FUNNELING
DOWN TOWARD DULUTH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE DEPICTED ON 0.5 REFLECTIVITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE...FROM WILLMAR TO
JUST WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INDUCED CONVECTION
HAS SLOWLY BEEN ERODING IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE
19Z. HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF PLACEMENT OF SAID SYSTEM...BUT
HAS LACKED ACCURACY ON EROSION. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATE ENTIRE AREA
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND DISINTEGRATE.
THROTTLED BACK ON POPS THIS EVENING WITH DRYING TREND ANTICIPATED
AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TREKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
HALF OF MN ...PER THE GFS40 305K ANAL. MUCH OF MN FA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM 04/06Z-12Z IN
RESPONSE TO PROXIMITY OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 250MB 90KT SPEED MAX
NOTED ENTERING WEST CENTRAL AND NW MN THIS TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS UPGLIDE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON GFS...NAM80 ALSO BRINGS IN
MODERATE UPGLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM 12Z-18Z ON TUE. WITH THAT
SAID ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR FROM
TUESDAY MORNING INTO LATE TUESDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST PRECIP PROGGED
TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS. SE FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TOMORROW AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AS INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL GLIDE THROUGH MN TUE NIGHT INTO WED ON
ITS WAY INTO NRN WI...PUSHING ALONG ITS SFC REFLECTION LOW PRES
CENTER. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE GREAT LAKES MIDDAY WED...BUT A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
DAY THU. THOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WILL NEED TO KEEP SHWRS IN THE FCST GOING INTO THU UNTIL
THIS SYSTEM AS A WHOLE EXITS THE REGION. A PRONOUNCED SLY PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH QPF/S IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND EVEN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
SLANTWISE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO ENHANCE WIDE-SCALE LIFT.
DESPITE THE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE IN THE AREA...INSTABILITY DOES NOT
APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY COMPACT SO
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEFINITIVE LACK OF EVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN THE FCST BUT ITS COVERAGE WILL BE
QUITE MEAGER. WITH THE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS AND THE ZONAL FLOW
OF THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING ACROSS...THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO
AIRMASS CHANGE...MEANING THAT THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE UPR 50S
TO LWR 60S WHILE LOWS HOLD IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CLEARING-OUT PERIOD WILL ENVELOP
THE AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRI EVE AS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE BUT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS...NUDGING INTO THE
UPR 60S FOR FRI. HOWEVER...THE IMPACT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE BRIEF
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPS IN FROM CANADA...BRINGING A
CONGLOMERATION OF LOW PRES CENTERS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
THRU THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PLUMES OF MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS
TROUGH...MAKING FOR ANOTHER EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HIGHS
AROUND 70. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA LATE SUN INTO
MON...THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MORE APPRECIABLE WARMUP
AND DRYING OUT PERIOD IS COMING FOR THE EARLY-TO-MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOR GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT
TO STATE AS SUCH WITH GREATER CERTAINTY SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
THE MODELS EVOLVE THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
0.5 REFLECTIVITY INDICATING LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/-RW
OVER WEST OF A LINE...FROM AXN TO MKT. TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGHOUT AIRPORT REGION
...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING BUT VERY LIGHT RAIN AND VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TREK EAST. ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER FAR
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE ABOVE SW NE. WITH CONTINUED
HEATING THIS AFTN EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST
KMSP...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KRNH. ANTICIPATE WEAKENING OF
SYSTEM AFT 23Z TIME PERIOD. SE FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
PERIOD...WITH INCREASING MAGNITUDES AFT 13Z ON TUESDAY. MUCH
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL OCCUR AFT 04/12Z OVER
MOST MN AIRPORT LOCATIONS. PREDOMINANT VSBYS/CIGS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF THE VFR VARIETY ...WITH OCNL HIGH END MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAINLY -SHRA.
KMSP...HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO POINT TO INITIATION OF -SHRA ACTIVITY
BY 21Z. ANTICIPATE VERY SHORT PERIOD OF PCPN...WITH VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS INTO TONIGHT. SE FLOW INCREASES MARKEDLY BY TUESDAY
AFTN...AS SFC GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING NEW STORM
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH PREDOMINANT CLOUD DECK/VSBYS WILL BE VFR...COULD
HAVE SHORT PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR VSBYS/CIGS. ALTHOUGH NOT
DEPICTED IN TAF...RAIN SHIELD COULD LAST A FEW HOURS LONGER THEN
CURRENTLY INDICATED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SHORT PERIODS WITH
-SHRA LIKELY. -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 12-15KTS.
WED...MVFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 5KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WIND E 6-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-8KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...AJZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
112 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR. A LIGHT VEERING BREEZE TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN OVERNIGHT SUB-3K FT DECK WITH ISOLATED
EARLY AM SHALLOW FOG...BUT ANTICIPATING MORE WIDESPREAD LONGER
DURATION VFR (SCT) WITH SHORT-LIVED MVFR (BKN) CEILINGS AROUND
PUSH TIME. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 13Z SURFACE SHOWS THAT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WAS MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPPER
AIR SURFACES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
WOULD EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS COUPLED
WITH THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THAT THE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THE
LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. THE EXCEPTION TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS THAT LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BAYS MAY ONLY
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. FOR NOW DO NOT EXPECT SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO HAVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S.
UPDATE FORTHCOMING FOR TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY...AND WINDS...AND
TO DROP MENTION OF FOG.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 93 71 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 70 93 71 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 88 77 87 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...31