Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/28/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
848 PM PDT MON MAY 27 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:47 PM PDT MONDAY...IT WAS A COOL AND CLOUDY
MEMORIAL DAY FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS A WEAK LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN TOTALS WERE SPOTTY
AND LIGHT WITH MOST SITES REPORTING FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. JUST SENT OUT A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SHOWING
SOME OF THE TOTALS ACROSS THE DISTRICT INCLUDING SOME OF THE
REMOTE GAGES UP IN THE HILLS. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES STILL
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF SHORE AND VARIOUS AMSU/SSMI SATELLITE
SCANS SHOW TONGUE OF MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF 40N...WITH TPW VALUES
WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE IN ACCORDANCE WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND KSTS REPORTING -RA WITH LAST OBSERVATION.
INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION RAP MODEL KEEPS SPITTING OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT QPF NUMBERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG
THE COAST. UPSHOT IS THAT CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SEE NO NEED TO
ALTER THAT FORECAST.
BACK TO WORK TUESDAY THE REGION WILL BE POST-FRONTAL WITH BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS. HIGHS AGAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S NEAR THE
COAST AND BAYS WITH ONLY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. EXPECTING MORE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS COMPARED TO TODAY.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS ANOTHER SIMILAR LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE RAIN/NO-RAIN LINE TO FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. FORECAST HAS THIS ACCOUNTED FOR AND ANY
RAIN THAT FALLS ON WEDS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY WEDS. SO ONLY REAL
PRECIP THREAT FOR WEDS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF SANTA ROSA WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
ZONAL FLOW WITH ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT TEMPS
WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TO RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE NORMALS.
BIG WEATHER STORY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BE A NOTED
WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE ROCKIES AMPLIFYING THE 500
MB PATTERN. A 590 DM HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ASSOCIATED
850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND 22 CELSIUS BY SATURDAY OVER THE BAY AREA.
SO EXPECT RAPID WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EVEN AT THE BEACHES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRADDLES THE
COAST WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
IN THE HILLS. ECMWF MOS DATA IS GETTING OMINOUSLY CLOSE TO SOME
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BY SATURDAY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS OR
AT THE VERY LEAST LOTS OF 90S. SHOULD THE PATTERN DEVELOP AS
EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BECOME ELEVATED ESPECIALLY IN
LIGHT OF VERY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE.
MODELS SPIN UP A WEAK CIRCULATION BY SUNDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY
INDUCE A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND COASTAL COOLING...FOLLOWED BY
INLAND COOLING NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 PM PDT MONDAY...MOIST FLOW OFF EPAC
CONTINUES SUPPORTED BY HIGHER AREA DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS SOON NEARING AN INCH (200% OF
NORMAL)...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS SPILLING
INTO THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT BEST SINCE THERE REMAIN MULTIPLE UNKNOWNS
WITH THE MOIST WIND FLOW OFF THE OBSERVATION DEFICIENT PACIFIC. EXCEPT
FOR A STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PATTERN ARRIVING 12Z-16Z
TUE MORNING RECENT MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT SHOW ANY HINT OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OR WAVE AMPLIFICATION RATHER THERE IS A STEADY
W-NW WIND FLOW OFF THE EPAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKED A BIT CLOSER
TO SEE IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ANY INSTABILITY NEAR 12Z DIVERGENCE
PATTERN TUE MORNING BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN ISSUE. UPPER RIDGING
EDGES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZES ARE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. SFO-SAC IS 2 MB...HAF-SFO IS 0.8 MB. BY TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOWEVER THE NAM MODEL SHOWS THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT RAMPING
UP TO 4 MB. IF THIS VERIFIES THEN KSFO SHOULD SEE GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING TUE AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
STICK AROUND TONIGHT POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER 06Z. VFR IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CONFIDENCE. THERE IS NO HINT OF
AN INVERSION AT THE FORT ORD PROFILER AS IT SHOWS GRADUAL COOLING
UP THROUGH 4 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL. HOWEVER AS PLENTY OF
MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ROLL OFF THE OCEAN THIS STILL COULD LEAD TO
IFR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1125 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
ADJUSTED GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT ENDING OF RED FLAG WARNING THIS
EVENING WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT
SUNDAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
221-222-225-227-233 AND 237. ALSO ADJUSTED GRIDS AS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MTS...AND INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY..
DEEPENING SFC LOW IN VCNTY OF KLHX HAS SPREAD SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS.
AS OF 20Z...SFC DRY LINE IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM JUST EAST OF
KLAA...TO NEAR KSPD. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND EVEN SOME NEGATIVE
READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LATEST HRRR STILL
PUSHES THE DRY LINE INTO WESTERN KS BY 22Z...WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 30S ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. STILL CONCERNED
THAT SOME INITIAL CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS OUT THAT WAY. MOST
OF IT WILL BE HIGH BASED...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THE MOST
LIKELY THREATS. COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER IF CAPES CAN STAY UP HIGH ENOUGH.
SPC HAS UPDATED THE LATEST OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE EASTERN
KIOWA...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES. INITIALLY 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
ARE AROUND 20-30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...BUT THESE VALUES
DO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...SO THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. EXPECT CONVECTION TO SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO KS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH OUTFLOWS MAY AID
WESTWARD RETREAT OF THE DRY LINE.
OVERNIGHT...DRY LINE PROGRESSES BACK WESTWARD BEFORE MIXING BACK
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER JET IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS ALL
AREAS LOOK TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SFC BOUNDARY
HANGS UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WITH DRY LINE EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO WESTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL GO WITH NIL POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD STAY AROUND 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW RECORDS (COS 90...2012 PUB 97...2012 ALS 84...1969)...THOUGH
STILL WAY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
DIGS ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MINOR WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. FIRST WAVE SENDS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT
MIXES OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO INDICATING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WAVE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
LIMIT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT ANY RATE...COULD SEE BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS TO BE TOO MARGINAL
TO ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WITH THE PASSING WAVES...COULD
SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY DEVELOPS A LA JUNTA LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH SOME MORE HIGH BASED STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND SOUTHWEST MTS. MORE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PASSING TROUGH KEEPS CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODELS KEEP BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THOUGH LATEST ECMWF IS A TAD FURTHER WEST WITH DRY LINE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STORMS ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS FALLING BACK TO
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLING ALOFT.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND PASSING TROUGH...KEEPING SLIGHT POPS DIURNAL POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ221-222-
225-227-233-237.
&&
$$
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR MEMORIAL DAY. THEREAFTER...MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LITTLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED AND THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CWFA TODAY.
PREV DISC...
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF
MAINE LOW WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR ONE MORE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS /PERIODS OF RAIN/ ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN SATURDAYS AS THE MAIN DIV-Q ALOFT WEAKENS
THIS MORNING. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH ISO-SCT POPS THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM A
VARIETY OF HI-RES SOURCES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE BEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
DACKS...TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND THE BERKS SO THIS WILL BE
WHERE THE HIGHER POP VALUES WILL BE IN THE GRIDS. ELSEWHERE...A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD SUNSET. WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
RUN OF THE LAV/LAMP WHICH WILL BE MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES AS MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
CLIMB TO AT LEAST H850 WHERE 30-35KTS RESIDES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND PER THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY
REDUCE ITS INFLUENCES ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST. THIS SHOULD THE STAGE FOR THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO EVOLVE. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WITH MOST OF THE AREAS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S. PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
FREEZING AND PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL HOIST A FREEZING WARNING
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION AND POINTS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER...WE WILL
HOIST FROST ADVISORIES.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT INTO THE HWO.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70F IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
TO 50S-60S ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB ON TUESDAY AS
WE MIX TO H850 WHERE AOA +8C IS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME STRONGER ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...AND A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP
OF RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WON/T BE AS
COOL...WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE MUCH
WARMER...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MOST PLACES...AS 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO 13 TO 15 DEGREES C. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR IS IN PLACE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED
TIME FOR SEVERE WX IN OUR AREA.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED AS THE REGION
REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE STRONG RIDGE AT 500 HPA...AND 850 HPA TEMPS
WILL BE 15 TO 18 DEGREES C. WITH OUR AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE RIDGE...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS A STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TSTMS FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE A
WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID END TO THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TAF
SITES...MAINLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR
THE VALLEY TAF SITES...THESE PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS MAY ALLOW
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR CIGS...AS THE RAINFALL
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. KPSF MAY SEE MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT...IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS
BASED OFF OF SURROUNDING CONDITIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
BY AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH...AND
CIGS WILL IMPROVE. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.
W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ON SUNDAY...WHEN A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR
KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...BECOMING LESS
THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RADAR CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT BRIGHT BANDING WHICH IS RESULTING IN
HIGHER RADAR RETURNS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT PER
REGIONAL AMOUNTS FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES. 6-HR TOTALS ENDING AT
06Z SUNDAY WHERE LESS THAN 1/2 OF AN INCH WITH AHPS RIVER POINTS
SHOWING EITHER WITHIN SLOW-GRADUAL BANK RISES OR NEAR STEADY
FLOWS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO HYDRO ISSUES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREA STREAMS
AND RIVERS SLOWLY RECEDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ039>041-043-047-048-050-051-054-058-061-063-066-
082>084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-038-042.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
900 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
.UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
41
.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RUC 50H FIELD OVERLAID ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ESTABLISHING A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. A MODIFIED 12Z FFC SOUNDING AND SUPPORTED BY LATEST SPC
MESO ANALYSIS INDICATE AFTERNOON CAPES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 500-600
J/KG WITH A MODERATE MID LEVEL CAP. WEAK INSTABILITY... LACK OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING SUGGEST THE GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE NORTH GA WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE TUE-WED IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
SLIGHTLY LESS OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
GA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND NIL CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS... LEANED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY... ALTHO
EXPECT THE SSE FLOW TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS NORTHWARD FROM
ATLANTIC AND GULF TOWARD MORNING. THEN WENT WITH A MAV AND MET BLEND
FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS AS A WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN RESPONSE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
39
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THINGS CONTINUE TO
LOOK LIKE A MORE SUMMER- LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE CWA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE BECOME
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW TO THE CWA THEREBY INCREASING HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE H5 RIDGE
HOLDING FIRM OVER THE CWA...THIS RISK SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO NORTH GA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
01/17
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SCT TO BKN050 AFTER 14Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK LESS
FAVORABLE FOR MORNING STRATUS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY
CHANGES. VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5
TO 10KT TUESDAY. MVFR FOG MAY AFFECT MAINLY ATHENS AND MACON 10Z TO
14Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS 10-12Z TUE.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 59 87 60 87 / 10 10 10 5
ATLANTA 63 86 65 86 / 10 5 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 58 83 57 82 / 20 20 20 5
CARTERSVILLE 59 87 62 88 / 10 10 10 5
COLUMBUS 63 88 64 89 / 5 5 5 5
GAINESVILLE 61 87 61 85 / 20 20 10 5
MACON 60 88 62 89 / 5 5 5 5
ROME 58 88 62 90 / 20 20 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 57 86 59 86 / 10 5 5 5
VIDALIA 63 89 64 88 / 5 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RUC 50H FIELD OVERLAID ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ESTABLISHING A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. A MODIFIED 12Z FFC SOUNDING AND SUPPORTED BY LATEST SPC
MESO ANALYSIS INDICATE AFTERNOON CAPES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 500-600
J/KG WITH A MODERATE MID LEVEL CAP. WEAK INSTABILITY... LACK OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING SUGGEST THE GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE NORTH GA WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE TUE-WED IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
SLIGHTLY LESS OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
GA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND NIL CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS... LEANED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY... ALTHO
EXPECT THE SSE FLOW TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS NORTHWARD FROM
ATLANTIC AND GULF TOWARD MORNING. THEN WENT WITH A MAV AND MET BLEND
FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS AS A WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN RESPONSE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
39
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THINGS CONTINUE TO
LOOK LIKE A MORE SUMMER- LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE CWA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE BECOME
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW TO THE CWA THEREBY INCREASING HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE H5 RIDGE
HOLDING FIRM OVER THE CWA...THIS RISK SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO NORTH GA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
01/17
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SCT TO BKN050 AFTER 14Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK LESS
FAVORABLE FOR MORNING STRATUS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY
CHANGES. VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5
TO 10KT TUESDAY. MVFR FOG MAY AFFECT MAINLY ATHENS AND MACON 10Z TO
14Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS 10-12Z TUE.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 59 87 60 87 / 10 10 10 5
ATLANTA 63 86 65 86 / 10 5 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 58 83 57 82 / 20 20 20 5
CARTERSVILLE 59 87 62 88 / 10 10 10 5
COLUMBUS 63 88 64 89 / 5 5 5 5
GAINESVILLE 61 87 61 85 / 20 20 10 5
MACON 60 88 62 89 / 5 5 5 5
ROME 58 88 62 90 / 20 20 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 57 86 59 86 / 10 5 5 5
VIDALIA 63 89 64 88 / 5 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INLAND WITH MAIN CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER OREGON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. STRONGEST CELLS AT THIS TIME ARE LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST
IDAHO..AND SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION STILL IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NAM AND HRRR BOTH
EJECT A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS EAST THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN INTO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AND MOST OF THE
CONVECTION EXIT NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA. COULD SEE SHOWERS LINGER
ALONG THE DIVIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSITORY RIDGE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF NEXT
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GFS AND NAM SHOW SIMILAR TIMING WITH THE
MAIN FEATURES BUT GFS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH QPF SHIELD.
TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS WITH POPS AS WELL AS COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORS...BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO EASTERN IDAHO BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN PRECIP OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHICH COULD BE A RATHER WET DAY FOR
THE REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AGAIN LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AS A
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH BUT CARRYING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT.
MODELS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD QPF VALUES OF .10-.25 INCH. THUS KEPT
POPS HIGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS. DMH
.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH NEXT SUN NIGHT. THE FIRST 30 HOURS OF THE
LONGWAVE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD IS FOR TROUGHING TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT BY THU THE LONGWAVE IS
MORE ZONAL AND BY LATE THU NIGHT ACTUALLY HAS WEAK RIDGING. THERE
IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
DURING THIS TIME. THE ECMWF HAS PULLED BACK FROM ITS HIGH POP DURING
THIS TIME...BUT STILL INDICATES LIKELY FOR WED AND THU IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE MONTANA BORDER. STILL SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION FORECASTED FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF POCATELLO LATITUDE. THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE FRONT
RANGE BY THU NIGHT...LEAVING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THE MAIN FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION THEN. BY FRI...LIMITED SHOWER THREAT ALONG THE
NORTHERN ID-WY BORDER...WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM. SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE AT EXTREME ELEVATIONS...BUT AMOUNTS
ARE LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE MELTING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THIS
LOW SHOULD BRING SOME WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY...AND THE INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON IS ENOUGH
TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SAT SHOULD BE DRY...WITH ONLY SUN IN SHARP
DISAGREEMENT AMONG PRODUCT SUITES. ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE LOW WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS LOW IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH
A SLOWER EVOLUTION. MESSICK
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS IN WESTERN IDAHO HAVE GENERATED SOME ISOLD
LIGHTNING AND WOULD EXPECT THE -TSRA THREAT TO DEVELOP FOR ALL 4
AIRDROMES IN EASTERN IDAHO...DIMINISHING FIRST IN THE WEST AND LATER
IN THE EAST. NOT MUCH EFFECT ON CIG WITH LOWEST EXPECTED STILL
MID-LEVEL. VSBY CONTINUES EXCELLENT AND WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
ALONG THE RUNWAY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
320 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
PROLONGED RAINY PERIOD CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS
MORNING SHOWERS LINED UP AND REMAINED OVER ONE AREA STRETCHING
FROM JUST SOUTH OF GALESBURG SOUTHEAST TO SHELBYVILLE. AREAS ALONG
THIS AXIS RECD BTWN 2.5 AND 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS BTWN 1 AND 1.5. WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY...CONCERN
INCREASES FOR FLASH FLOODING THREAT. MANY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN
THE SHORT TERM FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS.
WITH THE CONVECTIVE RISK AS THE EVENING GOES ON...WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A FF WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...FORECAST INTO THE LONG TERM IS
STILL A CONFLICT OF SYNOPTIC WAVE PATTERNS AT DAY 6/7. FORECAST
OUT THAT FAR A BLEND...WITH CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO UNCERTAINTY.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...
PLENTY OF PRECIP IN THE CWA THIS MORNING SLOWLY BROKE INTO PIECES
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS RETURNING WITH
TS IN THE SW. RAP/RUC AND 4KM WRF SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES
WITH THE EVOLUTION GOING INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH BOTH PRODUCING
SOME RATHER EXTENSIVE QPF. WITH STREAK OF HEAVY PRECIP ALREADY
FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS FROM SOUTH OF GALESBURG TO
SHELBYVILLE...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...AND A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THE STORMS THIS EVENING POTENTIALLY BUMPING
UP THOSE TOTALS LOCALLY...ISSUING A FF WATCH FOR AFFECTED
COUNTIES. WOULD BE LESS CONCERNED DUE TO THE OVERALL DURATION OF
THE EVENT...BUT 6HR FFG IN THE 2-2.5 INCH RANGE...AND THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT ON A HOLIDAY WEEKEND TIP THE SCALE. LONGEVITY
OF PRECIP TOMORROW EVENING VERY MUCH A FUNCTION OF LOCATION OF THE
PASSING WARM FRONT...AND HAVE TERMINATED THE WATCH AT THIS POINT
AT 00Z TOMORROW EVENING. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP...THIS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND BRINGING WARMER TEMPS IN THE REGION...WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN
AT MIDLEVELS AS THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES SOMEWHAT.
WARM FRONT FORWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE REGION MAY BE TEMPERED QUITE A BIT BY
RAIN COOLED AIR AS THE RAIN/CONVECTION GOES ON ALL DAY. VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND HIGHS WILL BE REACHED AT VARYING POINTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STORMS/CLOUDS ARE. IN
SHORT...FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC IN AN HOURLY SENSE TO SAY THE
LEAST. THOUGH WARMER THAN TODAY...KEEPING THE TEMPS A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE...AND THE GEMNH HAS ACTUALLY PROVIDED A VERY POSSIBLE
SOLUTION CONSIDERING THE GRADIENT FROM NE TO SW.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION BTWN COLD POOLS AND THE SFC BOUNDARY...LOCATION
OF THE SFC WARM FRONT A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK ON TUESDAY MORNING.
POPS REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTH...INVOF THE BOUNDARY.
FORECAST ACTUALLY DRY FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. WESTERN
TROF DIGS IN...AMPLIFYING THE WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS AND
LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST IN SWRLY FLOW...AND MUCH OF IL IN WEAK
FLOW...IF ANY...UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. VERY WARM MIDLEVELS AND
THE GUIDANCE STARTING TO REFLECT THE SITUATION A LITTLE BETTER. RETURNING
POPS ON THURS NIGHT/FRI SHOWING MORE OF A DELAY THAN THE 00Z
RUN...AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW CYCLES. A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE FOR
THUR NIGHT...AND FRIDAY SPECIFICALLY...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
FRI NIGHT. STILL A DEBATE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF QUITE DIFFERENT IN
HANDLING THE LARGE SCALE WAVE IN RELATION TO THE SFC SYSTEM.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN
ILLINOIS...AND SHOULD SEE MOST OF IT OUT OF THE TAF SITES BY 20Z.
HAVE THEN GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
BEEN SEEING SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO AROUND KSPI. HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME EROSION OF
THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO IFR
CEILINGS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
AS WITH THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS BACK
IN. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE RAP MODEL AS IT SEEMED TO DO FAIRLY
WELL WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY...AND HIT KPIA/KBMI THE HARDEST
WITH TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE 04-08Z TIME FRAME MOST
FAVORED. KSPI MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED BUT IS ON THE EDGE...SO DID
NOT GO WITH TOO LOW OF CONDITIONS YET. KDEC/KCMI ALSO ON THE FENCE
AND ONLY MENTIONED VCTS/VCSH FOR NOW.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1009 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING
SOME AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WANES. HAVE SEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE
HEAVIER BANDS SINCE 7 AM FROM FULTON COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO JUST EAST
OF SPRINGFIELD...WHEN THE STORMS WERE NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS THEY
ARE NOW. REDEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE WEST OF SPRINGFIELD IN AREAS
THAT HAD BEEN DRY FOR A COUPLE HOURS. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGREEABLE WITH TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT DIFFER A
BIT ON PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FURTHER
WEST...AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE
EMPHASIZED THE HIGHEST POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GRADUAL DECREASE LATER. ALSO UPDATED THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY AS THEY BE MUCH LOWER IF THE RAIN HOLDS ON TOO LONG...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN
ILLINOIS...AND SHOULD SEE MOST OF IT OUT OF THE TAF SITES BY 20Z.
HAVE THEN GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
BEEN SEEING SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO AROUND KSPI. HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME EROSION OF
THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO IFR
CEILINGS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
AS WITH THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS BACK
IN. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE RAP MODEL AS IT SEEMED TO DO FAIRLY
WELL WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY...AND HIT KPIA/KBMI THE HARDEST
WITH TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE 04-08Z TIME FRAME MOST
FAVORED. KSPI MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED BUT IS ON THE EDGE...SO DID
NOT GO WITH TOO LOW OF CONDITIONS YET. KDEC/KCMI ALSO ON THE FENCE
AND ONLY MENTIONED VCTS/VCSH FOR NOW.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED CONVECTION LIGHTING UP FROM NW
IOWA SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. THIS WAS OCCURRING WELL NORTH
OF A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH BISECTED MISSOURI FROM NW TO
SE...AND FOCUSED ALONG A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB. MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN IA WAS BEING FED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FROM A 35 KT LLJ...WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FADING FARTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL IL AS THIS SUPPORT DIMINISHED. HOWEVER THIS MAY
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LLJ
VEERS. THIS CONVECTION HAS A HISTORY OF TRAINING IN EASTERN
IA AND WITH OBSERVED RAIN RATES UP TO 0.75 IN/HR SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF
THE IL RIVER. LATEST 4KM NSSL WRF HAD BEST HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION
AND WOULD FAVOR BEST STORM COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH AND DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY. FOCUS FOR NEW PRECIP GENERATION THROUGH AFTERNOON WOULD BE
TIED TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO WEST CENTRAL IL BY 18Z.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FOR HIGHS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE CWA. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED STORMS AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL WAVES
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER THE CWA. EXTENT OF COLUMN SATURATION
AND P/W RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES SUGGESTS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER THE NW CWA WHERE FORCING IS SHOWN TO BE
STRONGEST.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN IL ON TUESDAY...AND
THIS SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH
DUE TO EXPECTED CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW...WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE NORTH INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A MUCH WARMER INTO CENTRAL IL WITH HIGHS GETTING WELL INTO
THE 80S.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BY MID-WEEK THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RESULTING DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE REGION AND WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S...A STRETCH OF SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL SET UP
OVER THE MIDWEST FOR THE END OF MAY. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST
BREAKS DOWN...ALLOWING THE LARGE TROF TO THE WEST TO SHIFT INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CURRENT INDICATIONS SHOW AN ACTIVE SETUP FROM
THE PLAINS POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS IOWA AND MISSOURI FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST INTO THE WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS THE WEST THU/FRI TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT MAKES IT THIS FAR EAST
IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE BEST SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND THE UPPER TROF AND SFC FRONT CAN GET INTO THE
CWA. OF COURSE MUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT WITH THE EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHOWING A MUCH WEAKER TROF BY 192 HRS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
HELP BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BY TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY FOLLOWING A DRY MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FURTHER NORTHEAST.
TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S AT 02Z.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS MAINTAINING THE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE TO RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF A LAFAYETTE-
INDY METRO-SEYMOUR LINE WHERE DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT COVERAGE TO SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THE CURRENT HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
THINKING. FORECAST LOWS STILL LOOK REACHABLE WITH MANY AREAS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE POPS
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PLACE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN
JEOPARDY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A SWATH OF QPF ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FRONTOGENESIS AT 850 MILLIBARS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
ALSO...MORE UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE. THUS...WILL RAISE POPS TO GOOD CHANCE OR
BETTER WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NEAR A CORRIDOR FROM IND-LAF AFTER
18Z. LOOKING AT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE PROGS...WOULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF IND...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS ALL COUNTIES. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK
TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
HIGHEST POPS FROM IND AND NORTH...WHERE CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. MORE UNSTABLE AIR ALSO ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT...SO
WENT WITH THUNDER ALL ZONES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON. POPS WILL BE
DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A DRY FORECAST FAR SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING EACH DAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES
AND IN ITS WAKE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PER MODEL BLEND AND
CONSALL LOOK GOOD FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. BY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...SHOULD BE A STRONGER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. HIGHS EXPECTED
TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 70S
SOUTHWEST. FINALLY...HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY WITH
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
PER BLEND LOOK GOOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE USED
FOR MOST ITEMS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP-FLOP ON
WHETHER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ENOUGH FOR SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.
RATHER THAN FLIP-FLOP WITH THIS FORECAST...WILL KEEP IT CONSISTENT
AND GO DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR CHANCE POPS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/0600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL AFFECTING TAF
SITES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY...EXCEPT DURING
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WHEN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS COULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. HRRR
MODEL INDICATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ENTERING THE BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SHOWERS THEN
DISSIPATE BUT RE-EMERGE NEAR THE CENTER OF OUR CWFA WITH THE BETTER
TERRAIN AROUND 08Z BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DISSIPATING AN HOUR OR SO LATER.
DID NOT INCLUDE THIS FEATURE IN THE FORECAST AS THE PCPN LOOKS VERY
LIGHT...IF AT ALL...AND THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING THIS
PCPN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
MESOSCALE COMPLEX BEGINNING TO SWEEP INTO WRN KY. TOPS HAVE WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS EVEN AS THE LEAADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN HAS FORMED ON THE OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS IN CNTRL ILL.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LIGHT...SO WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE EVENING
WORDING AND FCST ONLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. MOST MODELS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE ENUF OF THE PCPN HOLD
TOGETHER TO GIVE OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER.
EVEN WITH NO PCPN FOR THE REST OF ERN KY...THE COMPLEX WILL PUSH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
NO PCPN WITHIN THE STATE AND THE STORMS IN ILL ARE EITHER MOVING
NORTH OR THE SOUTH END IS DISSIPATING. NEW MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN
WILL MOVE ACROSS IND/OH TO OUR NORTH BUT NOT INTO ERN KY DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. SWRN WINDS ARE STILL BREEZY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN. WILL FURTHER UPDATE WHEN WINDS
DECREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
AND AS OF 3 PM WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA EAST INTO
SOUTHERN OH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE WV COALFIELDS. AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH A TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS...AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE A DEEP
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUE WITH RIDING
GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY FLAT CU HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR OVER THE JKL CWA BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE VICINITY AND JUST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT SOME ISOLATED SHRA AND OR TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET...BUT AT LEAST
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION NOW OVER THE MS VALLEY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IT WOULD SEEM THAT DRIER
AIR OVER MUCH OF KY DOWN IN THE TN VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS COMPLEX WEAKENING AS IT WORKS EAST THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR HANDLING OF IT SEEMS MOST REASONABLE
AND THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING CONVECTION ATTM IN THE LOWER OH
VALLEY EAST OF THE COMPLEX OVER MO AND IL. THE GFS ALSO HAS SOME LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA AS WELL. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ALL THE
ACTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. OPTED TO GO WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY..BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND AT THIS POINT ANY TRIGGERS HARD TO
DISCERN FOR CONVECTION ON TUE. THERE MAY BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TO
WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WITH HEIGHTS PROGGED TO RISE ON TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT...WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FURTHER ON TUE...INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA WEST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN AN AREA OF
RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD NIGHTS AND
WARM DAYS. INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT WE WILL BE LACKING ANY TRIGGERS.
MODELS ARE STILL LIKELY OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
MOISTURE EACH DAY...SO LIKELY OVERDOING THE CAPE. HOWEVER...SOME
GOOD CU FIELDS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...AND IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO POP A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDES IN THE SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EACH DAY SHOULD FEATURE A SLIGHT BETTER CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING AS
DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCH UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
BY THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RELINQUISH ITS HOLD ON THE AREA
AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY...COULD YIELD A BETTER SHOT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THIS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. PRESENTLY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
DAY 7. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE
AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...FEW CU NEAR 6KFT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW MOVING INTO WV...WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE PICKING UP AT NEAR 10KT...ESPECIALLY LOZ AND SME AFTER 15Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
844 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
MESOSCALE COMPLEX BEGINNING TO SWEEP INTO WRN KY. TOPS HAVE WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS EVEN AS THE LEAADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN HAS FORMED ON THE OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS IN CNTRL ILL.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LIGHT...SO WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE EVENING
WORDING AND FCST ONLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. MOST MODELS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE ENUF OF THE PCPN HOLD
TOGETHER TO GIVE OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER.
EVEN WITH NO PCPN FOR THE REST OF ERN KY...THE COMPLEX WILL PUSH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
NO PCPN WITHIN THE STATE AND THE STORMS IN ILL ARE EITHER MOVING
NORTH OR THE SOUTH END IS DISSIPATING. NEW MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN
WILL MOVE ACROSS IND/OH TO OUR NORTH BUT NOT INTO ERN KY DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. SWRN WINDS ARE STILL BREEZY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN. WILL FURTHER UPDATE WHEN WINDS
DECREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
AND AS OF 3 PM WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA EAST INTO
SOUTHERN OH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE WV COALFIELDS. AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH A TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS...AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE A DEEP
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUE WITH RIDING
GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY FLAT CU HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR OVER THE JKL CWA BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE VICINITY AND JUST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT SOME ISOLATED SHRA AND OR TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET...BUT AT LEAST
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION NOW OVER THE MS VALLEY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IT WOULD SEEM THAT DRIER
AIR OVER MUCH OF KY DOWN IN THE TN VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS COMPLEX WEAKENING AS IT WORKS EAST THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR HANDLING OF IT SEEMS MOST REASONABLE
AND THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING CONVECTION ATTM IN THE LOWER OH
VALLEY EAST OF THE COMPLEX OVER MO AND IL. THE GFS ALSO HAS SOME LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA AS WELL. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ALL THE
ACTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. OPTED TO GO WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY..BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND AT THIS POINT ANY TRIGGERS HARD TO
DISCERN FOR CONVECTION ON TUE. THERE MAY BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TO
WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WITH HEIGHTS PROGGED TO RISE ON TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT...WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FURTHER ON TUE...INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA WEST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN AN AREA OF
RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD NIGHTS AND
WARM DAYS. INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT WE WILL BE LACKING ANY TRIGGERS.
MODELS ARE STILL LIKELY OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
MOISTURE EACH DAY...SO LIKELY OVERDOING THE CAPE. HOWEVER...SOME
GOOD CU FIELDS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...AND IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO POP A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDES IN THE SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EACH DAY SHOULD FEATURE A SLIGHT BETTER CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING AS
DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCH UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
BY THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RELINQUISH ITS HOLD ON THE AREA
AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY...COULD YIELD A BETTER SHOT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THIS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. PRESENTLY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
DAY 7. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE
AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...FEW CU NEAR 6KFT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW MOVING INTO WV...WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE PICKING UP AT NEAR 10KT...ESPECIALLY LOZ AND SME AFTER 15Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
751 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
NO PCPN WITHIN THE STATE AND THE STORMS IN ILL ARE EITHER MOVING
NORTH OR THE SOUTH END IS DISSIPATING. NEW MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN
WILL MOVE ACROSS IND/OH TO OUR NORTH BUT NOT INTO ERN KY DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. SWRN WINDS ARE STILL BREEZY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN. WILL FURTHER UPDATE WHEN WINDS
DECREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
AND AS OF 3 PM WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA EAST INTO
SOUTHERN OH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE WV COALFIELDS. AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH A TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS...AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE A DEEP
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUE WITH RIDING
GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY FLAT CU HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR OVER THE JKL CWA BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE VICINITY AND JUST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT SOME ISOLATED SHRA AND OR TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET...BUT AT LEAST
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION NOW OVER THE MS VALLEY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IT WOULD SEEM THAT DRIER
AIR OVER MUCH OF KY DOWN IN THE TN VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS COMPLEX WEAKENING AS IT WORKS EAST THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR HANDLING OF IT SEEMS MOST REASONABLE
AND THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING CONVECTION ATTM IN THE LOWER OH
VALLEY EAST OF THE COMPLEX OVER MO AND IL. THE GFS ALSO HAS SOME LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA AS WELL. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ALL THE
ACTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. OPTED TO GO WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY..BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND AT THIS POINT ANY TRIGGERS HARD TO
DISCERN FOR CONVECTION ON TUE. THERE MAY BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TO
WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WITH HEIGHTS PROGGED TO RISE ON TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT...WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FURTHER ON TUE...INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA WEST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN AN AREA OF
RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD NIGHTS AND
WARM DAYS. INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT WE WILL BE LACKING ANY TRIGGERS.
MODELS ARE STILL LIKELY OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
MOISTURE EACH DAY...SO LIKELY OVERDOING THE CAPE. HOWEVER...SOME
GOOD CU FIELDS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...AND IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO POP A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDES IN THE SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EACH DAY SHOULD FEATURE A SLIGHT BETTER CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING AS
DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCH UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
BY THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RELINQUISH ITS HOLD ON THE AREA
AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY...COULD YIELD A BETTER SHOT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THIS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. PRESENTLY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
DAY 7. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE
AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...FEW CU NEAR 6KFT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW MOVING INTO WV...WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE PICKING UP AT NEAR 10KT...ESPECIALLY LOZ AND SME AFTER 15Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE INCLUDES A TWEAK TO THE POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING. DRY AIR IS STILL
HOLDING ON TO MID AND LOW LEVELS WHICH IS WHY MOST OF PRECIP SHOWN
ON RADAR IS EITHER VIRGA OR DRIZZLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT MID AND LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME SATURATED FAIRLY QUICKLY
AND SO...HAVE KEPT REMAINDER OF TONIGHTS POPS THE SAME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WELL NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AS WARM
FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD INTO FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL JET OF
35-40 KTS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE MOISTURE TO ADVECT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES BY LATE EVENING AND THEN
REMAIN STEADY AS SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND SREF WAS USED TO
CALCULATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT.
SPC EXPANDED A SLIGHT RISK TO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA FOR
TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER INSTABILITY NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN FORECAST AS TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOMORROW IS
UNCERTAIN...HENCE...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS TO NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER AROUND THE PITTSBURGH AREA AND NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE WARM FRONT TAKING ITS TIME MOVING TO THE NORTH...HAVE
SLOWED UP DEPARTURE OF POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THINK THAT SHOWERS
SHOULD DEPART BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. 09Z SREF/12Z NAM BOTH
KEEP PRECIP IN THE VICINITY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THINK THAT THE
COVERAGE DEPICTED IS OVERDONE. THE REGION WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER WEATHER TO DEVELOP. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE
MID 80S BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LOW DROPS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SINCE THE SURFACE DETAILS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
SPEED AND TIMING...NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WERE USED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS FINALLY HAVE A FRONT
CROSSING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PENDING ANY PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT NEAR MEX
VALUES...WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WITH A
WARM FRONT PUSH SLOWLY NORTH OF THE DISTRICT. WHILE SOME OF THE TAF
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH MAY EXPERIENCE A STRAY SHOWER THIS
EVENING...SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE SITES
VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KDUJ AND KFKL EARLY TUESDAY WHERE
RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT MAY BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS. RESTRICTIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIODS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
715 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AS WARM FRONT ADVANCES
NORTHWARD INTO FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL
FURTHER ENHANCE MOISTURE TO ADVECT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES BY LATE EVENING AND THEN
REMAIN STEADY AS SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND SREF WAS USED TO
CALCULATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT.
SPC EXPANDED A SLIGHT RISK TO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA FOR
TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER INSTABILITY NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN FORECAST AS TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOMORROW IS
UNCERTAIN...HENCE...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS TO NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER AROUND THE PITTSBURGH AREA AND NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE WARM FRONT TAKING ITS TIME MOVING TO THE NORTH...HAVE
SLOWED UP DEPARTURE OF POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THINK THAT SHOWERS
SHOULD DEPART BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. 09Z SREF/12Z NAM BOTH
KEEP PRECIP IN THE VICINITY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THINK THAT THE
COVERAGE DEPICTED IS OVERDONE. THE REGION WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER WEATHER TO DEVELOP. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS ALL LOCATIONS INTO THE
MID 80S BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LOW DROPS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SINCE THE SURFACE DETAILS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
SPEED AND TIMING...NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WERE USED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS FINALLY HAVE A FRONT
CROSSING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PENDING ANY PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT NEAR MEX
VALUES...WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WITH A
WARM FRONT PUSH SLOWLY NORTH OF THE DISTRICT. WHILE SOME OF THE TAF
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH MAY EXPERIENCE A STRAY SHOWER THIS
EVENING...SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE SITES
VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KDUJ AND KFKL EARLY TUESDAY WHERE
RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT MAY BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS. RESTRICTIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIODS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1102 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE NOTED SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KMSP TO KEAU AND EAST OF LINE FROM SHAKOPEE TO TRUMAN. THIS
REGION IS REMNANTS OF MCS WHICH FORMED OVER NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. AREA CORRELATES WELL WITH GFS40 THETA E ADVECTION.
CURRENT HRRR ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. REGION WAS STRUGGLING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
MARCHED NORTH INTO DRIER AIR COLUMN AND CONVERGENCE DEPICTED AT
250MB. EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW MIGRATION OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD
NORTH AS LATE DAY SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN OR SLOWLY
ENHANCE CURRENT INTENSITY. LOOK FOR CESSATION OF MOST PRECIP. FROM
THIS FEATURE BY AROUND 28/06Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
EXPECT ANOTHER LATE NIGHT MCS TO FOLLOW THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ABOVE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA. MCS WILL AGAIN
FORM OVER EASTERN SODAK AND FOLLOW 1000-500MB THICKNESS LINE
DROPPING ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA. SHOULD BE ANOTHER RATHER
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE FAR SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MN
CWA...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS THREE NIGHTS...WITH A FEW TENTHS TO
POSSIBLY FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MCS OVER NORTHERN IOWA SHOULD FOLLOW SAME TRAJECTORY AS TODAY`S
PCPN SHIELD...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW MORE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AS LI`S GRADUALLY RECEDE INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY. MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH MAINLY AROUND
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO PASSAGE.
USED A BLEND BETWEEN NAM AND GFS40 FOR TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
...AND THEN THROTTLED BACK ONE CATEGORY. OF COURSE INTENSITY AND
FORWARD SPEED OF RAINFALL SHIELD MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER TEMPERATURES NEED TO BE CUT EVEN FURTHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY
TIME FRAME...AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
FOCUSED THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE WESTERN
TROUGH SURGES EASTWARD...AND THE FRONT AND ADVECTION PROCESSES
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
INFLUENCES...AND COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AND ENHANCE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS WELL. PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD VALUES /1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES/...WHILE THE TROUGH STRUCTURE PROVIDES THE SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CONTINUES THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
END OF MAY...RANGING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND THEN
DECLINE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS IN JUNE /65 TO 70 DEGREES/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
ALL SITES INITIALIZED AT MVFR WITH IFR CIGS NOT ALL THAT FAR
OFF. AREA OF -SHRA/-DZ OVER WRN WI CONTINUES TO SHRINK...
EVENTUALLY SHUTTING OFF BY ABOUT 08Z-09Z. AS WINDS DIMINISH A BIT
AND PRECIP ENDS...CIGS WILL LOWER INTO IFR RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. A WINDOW FOR PRECIP TO RETURN LOOKS MOST EVIDENT BETWEEN
10Z-16Z TMRW IN MN...AND A FEW HRS LATER IN WI...AND HAVE PLAYED
THE TAFS AS SUCH. PRECIP ITSELF WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLY
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR VSBY. SHOWERS LOOK TO END ARND
18Z- 20Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDS AFTERWARDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CB/TS THRU TMRW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE THRU THE NIGHT...THEN
SOME LGT/VRBL WINDS WILL DEVELOP MID-TO-LATE DAY TMRW BEFORE WINDS
SWING SW.
KMSP...INITIALIZED JUST ABOVE IFR CIGS BUT AM EXPECTING CIGS TO
DROP BELOW 1 KFT BEFORE TOO LONG AND THEN TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. A WINDOW OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-20Z FOR KMSP AND HAVE RUN WITH MVFR VSBY DURG
THIS TIME. THAT MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC SO THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED
IF NECESSARY. CONDS IMPROVE BY LATE TMRW AFTN TO VFR FOR BOTH
CIG/VSBY AND WILL REMAIN AS SUCH THRU TMRW EVE. WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY SE THRU THE PERIOD...BUT GO LGT/VRBL TMRW AFTN BEFORE
SHIFTING TO S AND SE TMRW EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. SHRA/TSRA
LIKELY... MAINLY IN THE AFTN. WINDS S 10-15 KT.
THU...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS S 15-20
KT.
FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS SW 10-15
KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
746 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE NOTED SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KMSP TO KEAU AND EAST OF LINE FROM SHAKOPEE TO TRUMAN. THIS
REGION IS REMNANTS OF MCS WHICH FORMED OVER NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. AREA CORRELATES WELL WITH GFS40 THETA E ADVECTION.
CURRENT HRRR ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. REGION WAS STRUGGLING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
MARCHED NORTH INTO DRIER AIR COLUMN AND CONVERGENCE DEPICTED AT
250MB. EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW MIGRATION OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD
NORTH AS LATE DAY SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN OR SLOWLY
ENHANCE CURRENT INTENSITY. LOOK FOR CESSATION OF MOST PRECIP. FROM
THIS FEATURE BY AROUND 28/06Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
EXPECT ANOTHER LATE NIGHT MCS TO FOLLOW THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ABOVE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA. MCS WILL AGAIN
FORM OVER EASTERN SODAK AND FOLLOW 1000-500MB THICKNESS LINE
DROPPING ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA. SHOULD BE ANOTHER RATHER
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE FAR SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MN
CWA...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS THREE NIGHTS...WITH A FEW TENTHS TO
POSSIBLY FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MCS OVER NORTHERN IOWA SHOULD FOLLOW SAME TRAJECTORY AS TODAY`S
PCPN SHIELD...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW MORE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AS LI`S GRADUALLY RECEDE INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY. MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH MAINLY AROUND
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO PASSAGE.
USED A BLEND BETWEEN NAM AND GFS40 FOR TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
...AND THEN THROTTLED BACK ONE CATEGORY. OF COURSE INTENSITY AND
FORWARD SPEED OF RAINFALL SHIELD MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER TEMPERATURES NEED TO BE CUT EVEN FURTHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY
TIME FRAME...AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
FOCUSED THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE WESTERN
TROUGH SURGES EASTWARD...AND THE FRONT AND ADVECTION PROCESSES
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
INFLUENCES...AND COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AND ENHANCE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS WELL. PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD VALUES /1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES/...WHILE THE TROUGH STRUCTURE PROVIDES THE SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CONTINUES THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
END OF MAY...RANGING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND THEN
DECLINE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS IN JUNE /65 TO 70 DEGREES/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
ALL SITES INITIALIZED AT MVFR WITH IFR CIGS NOT ALL THAT FAR
OFF. AREA OF -SHRA/-DZ OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI IS SLOWLY
SHRINKING AND THAT LOOKS TO BRING TO AN END ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP
FOR THE TAF SITES THE REST OF THIS EVE AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AS WINDS DIMINISH A BIT AND PRECIP ENDS...CIGS WILL STEADILY
LOWER AND WILL LOOK FOR IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A WINDOW
FOR PRECIP TO RETURN LOOKS MOST EVIDENT BETWEEN 10Z-16Z TMRW IN
MN...AND A FEW HRS LATER IN WI...AND HAVE PLAYED THE TAFS AS SUCH.
PRECIP ITSELF WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLY SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR VSBY. SHOWERS LOOK TO END ARND 18Z-
20Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDS AFTERWARDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CB/TS
THRU TMRW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE THRU THE NIGHT...THEN SOME
LGT/VRBL WINDS WILL DEVELOP MID-TO-LATE DAY TMRW BEFORE WINDS
SWING SW.
KMSP...INITIALIZED JUST ABOVE IFR CIGS BUT AM EXPECTING CIGS TO
DROP BELOW 1 KFT BEFORE TOO LONG AND THEN TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE NIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD HAS SHRUNK AND SHIFTED
E WITH NO APPARENT MECHANISM TO DEVELOP FURTHER OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY BUT WITH THE DEGRADED CIGS. IN ADDITION...WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. ANOTHER
WINDOW OF PRECIP LOOKS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-20Z FOR KMSP AND
HAVE RUN WITH MVFR VSBY DURG THIS TIME. THAT MAY BE A BIT
PESSIMISTIC SO THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED IF NECESSARY. CONDS IMPROVE BY
LATE TMRW AFTN TO VFR FOR BOTH CIG/VSBY. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY SE
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT GO LGT/VRBL TMRW AFTN BEFORE SHIFTING TO SW
BY TMRW EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. SHRA/TSRA
LIKELY... MAINLY IN THE AFTN. WINDS S 10-15 KT.
THU...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS S 15-20
KT.
FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS SW 10-15
KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
212 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MN EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SLOWLY
VEERING TO OUR SOUTH. THE WORST OF THE STORMS REMAIN FOCUSED NW-SE
ACROSS KFSD... WHERE UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT.
THE 850MB DEW POINT SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE KOMA RAOB WAS 15 DEG
C.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES
FOR A TIME THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR WERE VERY BULLISH
ON HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING.. BUT MORE
RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED DOWN. OUR MPXWRF AND THE VARIOUS HOPWRF RUNS
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WEAKENING DURING THE MORNING AS WELL WITH THE
WORST STAYING ACROSS IA. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET
DIMINISHING SOME OVER US... ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE BETTER
GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN MN. HOWEVER... THE SPCWRF
DOES SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
WHAT SEEMS TIED TO A MCV FROM THE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER CENTRAL SD
ATTM. THEREFORE... SMALL POPS REMAIN FOR THE MN CWA WITH SMALL POPS
SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WITH AROUND 60
TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST.
FOR TONIGHT... MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IS FOCUSED NEAR THE I-29 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS
INTO OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE SPC/NSSL/NMM AND ARW WRF/S SHOW THE
WORST OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS SD/NE/IA. AT THIS
POINT...POPS TONIGHT INCREASE FROM LOW CHANCE IN THE EVENING TO
LIKELY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
BEST ADVICE FOR THE LONG TERM...PACK AN UMBRELLA!
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE COURSE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS...AS DEEP TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BEFORE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP AND MOIST SW FLOW IN
BETWEEN WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEEK. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE SIOUX FALLS AREA THIS EVENING...
FLOODING...BOTH OF THE FLASH AND AREAL/RIVER VARIETY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKING TO HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT...OR AT LEAST WIDESPREAD EVENTS.
A KEY COMPONENT FOR THE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE
FRONTAL...ALONG WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE LLJ PLACEMENT.
FOR THE WARM FRONT...IT WILL FINALLY START PUSHING INTO MN ON
MONDAY...LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MPX CWA DURING THE DAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND LOOKS
TO WAFFLE AROUND CENTRAL MN INTO NRN WI THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY WILL BRING WITH IT A DEEP SFC LOW INTO NODAK. THIS WILL
FORCE THE WARM FRONT UP INTO CANADA...BUT BEGIN TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT
BECOMES OCCLUDED OVER SRN MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
PULL THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MN ON FRIDAY.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THEY WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO WHERE THE LLJ
DECIDES TO SET UP AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME. THE LLJ WILL BE LIFTING
ACROSS MN WITH THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING
MEMORIAL DAY AS A RESULT. AT LEAST THIS IS WHAT DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SHOW HAPPENING MEMORIAL DAY. SOMEWHAT CONSPICUOUSLY...THE CAMS SUCH
AS THE NMM AND ARW WERE KEEPING MONDAY DRY WITH THEIR 26.00
RUNS...THOUGH THE FORCING EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT/LLJ WOULD
SUGGEST THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE MORE BELIEVABLE. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LLJ ANGLES NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...SO THIS MAY LEAD TO A LULL IN ACTIVITY TUESDAY...WHEN
THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE NEXT WEEK CAN BE FOUND. LLJ BACKS TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE LLJ
NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE MPX
AREA UNTIL SATURDAY.
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE INDICATING WE
COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE TOP 8 MATCHES FROM MONDAY
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ARE MAXIMIZED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON MONDAY...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...BUT THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED AND PRIMARILY
RESPONSIBLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR TUESDAY...BEST LLJ FORCING
WILL BE OFF TO THE SE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
PROGGED TO BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...IF SFC BASED CONVECTION WERE TO GET GOING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...THEN ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AS
INDICATED IN THE DAY 3 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. YOU CAN MAKE THE
SAME ARGUMENT FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER MN...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELOADING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THIS POINT ARE THE INTERESTING
DAYS WHERE EVERYTHING LOOKS TO HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO COME IN LINE.
THURSDAY ACROSS MOST OF MN...AND FRIDAY MORE ERN MN INTO WI. BOTH
DAYS...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...HELPING PUSH SFC DEWPS INTO THE UPPER
60S. WIND SHEAR BOTH DAYS THOUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR ACTIVITY BECOMING LINEAR QUITE QUICKLY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL.
AS FOR THAT FINAL HAZARD OF FLOODING...THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
PAINT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE MPX CWA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 6 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS STILL
INDICATED FOR MUCH OF IOWA. THE MAJORITY OF THAT RAIN WITH THE
26.00 RUNS COMES FROM MONDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
HELD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS POINT...BUT MONDAY
COULD POSE ISSUES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE FLOOD MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SPORADIC VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH MDT SE FLOW SLACKENING CONSIDERABLY
AFT 23Z. SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES INTO WESTERN NE AND KS BY 27/06Z
TIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT SETTING UP SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS TWO...AS
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL BACKBONE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD
INITIATION. DIFFERENCE THIS GO AROUND WILL BE CLOSER PROXIMITY
OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR REGION...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z
WITH OF COURSE WESTERN AIRPORT SITES COMMENCING FIRST. LOW MVFR
CIGS WILL KICK IN WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE INTO LATE
IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH MVR CIGS ANTICIPATED AFTER ABOUT 16Z.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER 19Z ON MONDAY
...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A RWF-KMSP LINE.
KMSP...MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH END
OF PERIOD. LIGHT -RW AND OR DRIZZLE NOTED FROM NEAR KSTC
TO KMSP TO JUST WEST OF KEAU. EXPECT THIS REGION TO GROW
SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE PRIOR TO 00Z...ASSOCIATED
WITH LATE DAY HEATING AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF SURFACE WARM BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN SODAK. SE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO END OF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY
DESCEND TO NEAR 1000 FEET BY 06Z TIME FRAME...WITH HIGH
END MVFR RETURNING BY 17Z. ALTHOUGH NOT DISPLAYED IN CURRENT
TAF...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA AFTER 27/20Z TIME PERIOD
...AND RETURN TO MID RANGE MVFR CIGS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...AJZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
639 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MN EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SLOWLY
VEERING TO OUR SOUTH. THE WORST OF THE STORMS REMAIN FOCUSED NW-SE
ACROSS KFSD... WHERE UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT.
THE 850MB DEW POINT SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE KOMA RAOB WAS 15 DEG
C.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES
FOR A TIME THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR WERE VERY BULLISH
ON HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING.. BUT MORE
RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED DOWN. OUR MPXWRF AND THE VARIOUS HOPWRF RUNS
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WEAKENING DURING THE MORNING AS WELL WITH THE
WORST STAYING ACROSS IA. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET
DIMINISHING SOME OVER US... ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE BETTER
GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN MN. HOWEVER... THE SPCWRF
DOES SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
WHAT SEEMS TIED TO A MCV FROM THE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER CENTRAL SD
ATTM. THEREFORE... SMALL POPS REMAIN FOR THE MN CWA WITH SMALL POPS
SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WITH AROUND 60
TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST.
FOR TONIGHT... MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IS FOCUSED NEAR THE I-29 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS
INTO OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE SPC/NSSL/NMM AND ARW WRF/S SHOW THE
WORST OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS SD/NE/IA. AT THIS
POINT...POPS TONIGHT INCREASE FROM LOW CHANCE IN THE EVENING TO
LIKELY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
BEST ADVICE FOR THE LONG TERM...PACK AN UMBRELLA!
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE COURSE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS...AS DEEP TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BEFORE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP AND MOIST SW FLOW IN
BETWEEN WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEEK. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE SIOUX FALLS AREA THIS EVENING...
FLOODING...BOTH OF THE FLASH AND AREAL/RIVER VARIETY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKING TO HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT...OR AT LEAST WIDESPREAD EVENTS.
A KEY COMPONENT FOR THE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE
FRONTAL...ALONG WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE LLJ PLACEMENT.
FOR THE WARM FRONT...IT WILL FINALLY START PUSHING INTO MN ON
MONDAY...LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MPX CWA DURING THE DAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND LOOKS
TO WAFFLE AROUND CENTRAL MN INTO NRN WI THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY WILL BRING WITH IT A DEEP SFC LOW INTO NODAK. THIS WILL
FORCE THE WARM FRONT UP INTO CANADA...BUT BEGIN TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT
BECOMES OCCLUDED OVER SRN MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
PULL THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MN ON FRIDAY.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THEY WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO WHERE THE LLJ
DECIDES TO SET UP AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME. THE LLJ WILL BE LIFTING
ACROSS MN WITH THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING
MEMORIAL DAY AS A RESULT. AT LEAST THIS IS WHAT DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SHOW HAPPENING MEMORIAL DAY. SOMEWHAT CONSPICUOUSLY...THE CAMS SUCH
AS THE NMM AND ARW WERE KEEPING MONDAY DRY WITH THEIR 26.00
RUNS...THOUGH THE FORCING EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT/LLJ WOULD
SUGGEST THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE MORE BELIEVABLE. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LLJ ANGLES NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...SO THIS MAY LEAD TO A LULL IN ACTIVITY TUESDAY...WHEN
THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE NEXT WEEK CAN BE FOUND. LLJ BACKS TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE LLJ
NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE MPX
AREA UNTIL SATURDAY.
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE INDICATING WE
COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE TOP 8 MATCHES FROM MONDAY
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ARE MAXIMIZED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON MONDAY...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...BUT THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED AND PRIMARILY
RESPONSIBLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR TUESDAY...BEST LLJ FORCING
WILL BE OFF TO THE SE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
PROGGED TO BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...IF SFC BASED CONVECTION WERE TO GET GOING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...THEN ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AS
INDICATED IN THE DAY 3 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. YOU CAN MAKE THE
SAME ARGUMENT FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER MN...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELOADING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THIS POINT ARE THE INTERESTING
DAYS WHERE EVERYTHING LOOKS TO HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO COME IN LINE.
THURSDAY ACROSS MOST OF MN...AND FRIDAY MORE ERN MN INTO WI. BOTH
DAYS...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...HELPING PUSH SFC DEWPS INTO THE UPPER
60S. WIND SHEAR BOTH DAYS THOUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR ACTIVITY BECOMING LINEAR QUITE QUICKLY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL.
AS FOR THAT FINAL HAZARD OF FLOODING...THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
PAINT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE MPX CWA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 6 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS STILL
INDICATED FOR MUCH OF IOWA. THE MAJORITY OF THAT RAIN WITH THE
26.00 RUNS COMES FROM MONDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
HELD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS POINT...BUT MONDAY
COULD POSE ISSUES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE FLOOD MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD
FROM KAXN THROUGH KRWF. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD PUSH INTO KSTC THIS
MORNING AND REACH INTO KMSP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WI TAFS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM SD
THROUGH IA TO IL. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KRWF THROUGH ABOUT KRGK THIS MORNING. ITS
THE ACTIVITY IN SD THAT MAY CAUSE A CIRCULATION ALOFT TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN SHOWERS WOULD
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND THEN PROGRESS INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS THE
SCENARIO USED IN THE TAFS. BEYOND THIS EVENING CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIP LOCATION AND DURATION DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE CONCERNS RETURNING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. ONE AREA
WHERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS IS WITH THE CEILINGS BECOMING LOW MVFR
WITH IFR FROM KAXN TO KRWF. STEADY ESE WIND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STRONGEST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN
WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
KMSP...VFR TO START THE TAF WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z. A MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER EVENT
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CEILINGS
DROPPING BELOW 017 AFTER 06Z. LOW MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR CIGS TO
START MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TODAY UP TO 25 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.
WED...CHC MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MN EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SLOWLY
VEERING TO OUR SOUTH. THE WORST OF THE STORMS REMAIN FOCUSED NW-SE
ACROSS KFSD... WHERE UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT.
THE 850MB DEW POINT SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE KOMA RAOB WAS 15 DEG
C.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES
FOR A TIME THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR WERE VERY BULLISH
ON HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING.. BUT MORE
RECENT RUNS HAVE BACKED DOWN. OUR MPXWRF AND THE VARIOUS HOPWRF RUNS
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WEAKENING DURING THE MORNING AS WELL WITH THE
WORST STAYING ACROSS IA. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET
DIMINISHING SOME OVER US... ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE BETTER
GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN MN. HOWEVER... THE SPCWRF
DOES SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
WHAT SEEMS TIED TO A MCV FROM THE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER CENTRAL SD
ATTM. THEREFORE... SMALL POPS REMAIN FOR THE MN CWA WITH SMALL POPS
SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WITH AROUND 60
TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST.
FOR TONIGHT... MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IS FOCUSED NEAR THE I-29 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS
INTO OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE SPC/NSSL/NMM AND ARW WRF/S SHOW THE
WORST OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS SD/NE/IA. AT THIS
POINT...POPS TONIGHT INCREASE FROM LOW CHANCE IN THE EVENING TO
LIKELY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
BEST ADVICE FOR THE LONG TERM...PACK AN UMBRELLA!
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE COURSE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS...AS DEEP TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BEFORE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP AND MOIST SW FLOW IN
BETWEEN WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEEK. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE SIOUX FALLS AREA THIS EVENING...
FLOODING...BOTH OF THE FLASH AND AREAL/RIVER VARIETY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKING TO HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT...OR AT LEAST WIDESPREAD EVENTS.
A KEY COMPONENT FOR THE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE
FRONTAL...ALONG WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE LLJ PLACEMENT.
FOR THE WARM FRONT...IT WILL FINALLY START PUSHING INTO MN ON
MONDAY...LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MPX CWA DURING THE DAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND LOOKS
TO WAFFLE AROUND CENTRAL MN INTO NRN WI THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY WILL BRING WITH IT A DEEP SFC LOW INTO NODAK. THIS WILL
FORCE THE WARM FRONT UP INTO CANADA...BUT BEGIN TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT
BECOMES OCCLUDED OVER SRN MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
PULL THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MN ON FRIDAY.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THEY WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO WHERE THE LLJ
DECIDES TO SET UP AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME. THE LLJ WILL BE LIFTING
ACROSS MN WITH THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING
MEMORIAL DAY AS A RESULT. AT LEAST THIS IS WHAT DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SHOW HAPPENING MEMORIAL DAY. SOMEWHAT CONSPICUOUSLY...THE CAMS SUCH
AS THE NMM AND ARW WERE KEEPING MONDAY DRY WITH THEIR 26.00
RUNS...THOUGH THE FORCING EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT/LLJ WOULD
SUGGEST THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE MORE BELIEVABLE. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LLJ ANGLES NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...SO THIS MAY LEAD TO A LULL IN ACTIVITY TUESDAY...WHEN
THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE NEXT WEEK CAN BE FOUND. LLJ BACKS TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE LLJ
NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE MPX
AREA UNTIL SATURDAY.
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...CIPS ANALOG IMPACT GUIDANCE INDICATING WE
COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE TOP 8 MATCHES FROM MONDAY
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ARE MAXIMIZED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON MONDAY...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...BUT THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED AND PRIMARILY
RESPONSIBLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR TUESDAY...BEST LLJ FORCING
WILL BE OFF TO THE SE OF THE MPX CWA...BUT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
PROGGED TO BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...IF SFC BASED CONVECTION WERE TO GET GOING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...THEN ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AS
INDICATED IN THE DAY 3 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. YOU CAN MAKE THE
SAME ARGUMENT FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER MN...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELOADING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THIS POINT ARE THE INTERESTING
DAYS WHERE EVERYTHING LOOKS TO HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO COME IN LINE.
THURSDAY ACROSS MOST OF MN...AND FRIDAY MORE ERN MN INTO WI. BOTH
DAYS...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...HELPING PUSH SFC DEWPS INTO THE UPPER
60S. WIND SHEAR BOTH DAYS THOUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR ACTIVITY BECOMING LINEAR QUITE QUICKLY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL.
AS FOR THAT FINAL HAZARD OF FLOODING...THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
PAINT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE MPX CWA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 6 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS STILL
INDICATED FOR MUCH OF IOWA. THE MAJORITY OF THAT RAIN WITH THE
26.00 RUNS COMES FROM MONDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
HELD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS POINT...BUT MONDAY
COULD POSE ISSUES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE FLOOD MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
WHILE KRWF-KAXN-KSTC HAVE ALL GONE DOWN TO MVFR...EASTERN SITES
HAVE YET TO DROP DOWN. WAS THINKING KMSP WOULD HAVE DROPPED DOWN
TO MVFR BY THIS POINT...WHAT WITH SITES JUST W AND S HAVING GONE
THAT LOW...BUT IT SHOULD BE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
26/06Z TAF THAT CONDS DROP TO MVFR. CIGS THEN REMAIN AT MVFR THRU
MOST OF THE DAY...THEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER /2000-3000 FT/
DECK SCATTER OUT TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDS BEFORE MVFR CIGS FILL BACK
INTO THE AREA. ONLY SITE TO BE HIT HARD WITH PRECIP IN THIS
ISSUANCE IS KRWF...WHICH IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING
SFC FNT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THIS MRNG. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM SWRN MN INTO THE REST OF CENTRAL-SRN MN THRU
THE DAY TDA...THEN SLOWLY INTO WRN WI TNGT INTO EARLY MON. CONDS
TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS PRECIP MOVES IN...BUT TIMING ISSUES
AMONG THE SHORT-TERM MODELS DO NOT GIVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ATTM.
WINDS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 120-140 WITH SPEEDS AOA 10 KT...INCLUDING
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT DURG THE DAY TMRW.
KMSP...VFR CONDS TO START WILL EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW MVFR LEVELS
AROUND 09Z...THEN STAY THERE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. AM NOT
EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP BELOW 2 KFT. CEILINGS MAY EVEN RISE ABOVE 3
KFT EARLIER THAN ADVERTISED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR
CIGS RETURN BY LATE EVENING. PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TO THE SW OF
THE TERMINAL THRU THE DAY...THEN PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURG THE EVE HRS. WILL START OFF THE PRECIP LIGHT THEN BRING IN
HEAVIER PRECIP TMRW NIGHT...WHICH LINES UP WITH MODEL PROGS OF
HAVING HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD TMRW NIGHT RATHER THAN DURG THE
DAY. COULD EASILY HAVE TSTMS...BUT HAVE STARTED THINGS MORE
OPTIMISTICALLY AND WILL ALLOW LATER TAF ISSUANCES SEE HOW
CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.
WED...CHC MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
YET ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. MOST OF THE CWA IS
VOID OF PRECIPITATION AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE CLOSEST ORGANIZED
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS A NARROW ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN THE GRADIENT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE VIA A BROAD SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA IN THE POST-DAYBREAK PERIOD...OTHERWISE I
THINK THROUGH MID MORNING THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY
WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
...WITH A CONTINUED UPSWING IN COVERAGE THRU THE AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING ASCENT
VIA A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD OUT OF IA FROM THE RIDGE CREST.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS
RIVER...SANS SE MO. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING THERE ARE 2 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WHICH I ENVISION. THE FIRST
SCENARIO HAS AN MCS EVOLVING ACROSS NE MO/WC IL DUE TO UPSCALE
GROWTH FROM ALL THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DUE TO MERGERS AND COLD
POOL INTERACTION ENHANCED BY THE SSWLY LLJ AND THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT. THE OTHER PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THE CURRENT MCS OVER NW
IA/SE SD WILL TRACK SEWD TODAY AND THEN MERGE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN NE MO/WC IL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE END RESULT IN EITHER CASE IS A SEWD MOVING MCS
WHERE THE APEX TRACKS CLOSE TO THE MS RIVER DURING THE EVENING.
THERE COULD ALSO BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ON THE TRAILING
FLANK OF THE MCS ACROSS ERN MO DUE TO LIFT VIA THE SWLY
LLJ/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY. IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF IFS DUE TO MESOSCALE
FACTORS WHICH MUST COINCIDE. THE HRRR AND LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
NCAR 3KM ARW WRF LEND CREDENCE TO THESE SCENARIOS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
GLASS
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE QPF AND MASS FIELDS FROM THE MODELS
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ALLOWING NCAR ARW WRF
THAT AT LEAST THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE
LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE
TRACKING SEWD THRU THE AREA...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT WILL
BE TRYING TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR REMNANT
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS LIFT - BOTH RESIDENT FROM OVERNIGHT
AND ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY MOVING SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIR MASS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE UNSTABLE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY THAT THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CALM DOWN DUE TO PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE ERN U.S. AND THE
NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A RENEWED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN TROF SHIFTS INTO THE
NATIONS MIDSECTION.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN WITHIN A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. BEYOND THE END OF THE 24HR TAF PD...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTN. SELY WINDS WILL BECOME
SLY ONCE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TOMORROW AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OF 20-25 KTS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN WITHIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. VCTS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE FOR KSTL ATTM GIVEN THE EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE. WILL
AMEND THE TAF IF RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ANY STORMS HEADING TOWARDS
KSTL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTN AS WELL.
SELY WINDS WILL BECOME SLY ONCE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
TOMORROW AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
716 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
YET ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. MOST OF THE CWA IS
VOID OF PRECIPITATION AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE CLOSEST ORGANIZED
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS A NARROW ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN THE GRADIENT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE VIA A BROAD SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA IN THE POST-DAYBREAK PERIOD...OTHERWISE I
THINK THROUGH MID MORNING THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY
WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
...WITH A CONTINUED UPSWING IN COVERAGE THRU THE AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING ASCENT
VIA A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD OUT OF IA FROM THE RIDGE CREST.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS
RIVER...SANS SE MO. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING THERE ARE 2 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WHICH I ENVISION. THE FIRST
SCENARIO HAS AN MCS EVOLVING ACROSS NE MO/WC IL DUE TO UPSCALE
GROWTH FROM ALL THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DUE TO MERGERS AND COLD
POOL INTERACTION ENHANCED BY THE SSWLY LLJ AND THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT. THE OTHER PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THE CURRENT MCS OVER NW
IA/SE SD WILL TRACK SEWD TODAY AND THEN MERGE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN NE MO/WC IL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE END RESULT IN EITHER CASE IS A SEWD MOVING MCS
WHERE THE APEX TRACKS CLOSE TO THE MS RIVER DURING THE EVENING.
THERE COULD ALSO BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ON THE TRAILING
FLANK OF THE MCS ACROSS ERN MO DUE TO LIFT VIA THE SWLY
LLJ/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY. IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF IFS DUE TO MESOSCALE
FACTORS WHICH MUST COINCIDE. THE HRRR AND LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
NCAR 3KM ARW WRF LEND CREDENCE TO THESE SCENARIOS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
GLASS
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE QPF AND MASS FIELDS FROM THE MODELS
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ALLOWING NCAR ARW WRF
THAT AT LEAST THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE
LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE
TRACKING SEWD THRU THE AREA...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT WILL
BE TRYING TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR REMNANT
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS LIFT - BOTH RESIDENT FROM OVERNIGHT
AND ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY MOVING SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIR MASS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE UNSTABLE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY THAT THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CALM DOWN DUE TO PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE ERN U.S. AND THE
NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A RENEWED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN TROF SHIFTS INTO THE
NATIONS MIDSECTION.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE VCTS MENTION AT KUIN AND VCSH MENTION IN METRO
AREA TAFS...KCOU SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO KEPT VCTS MENTION BEGINNING 19Z-20Z
TIMEFRAME...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z-01Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...SO HAVE VCSH MENTION IN METRO AREA
TAFS THROUGH 14Z. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO KEPT VCTS MENTION BEGINNING AROUND 20Z...THEN
DIMINISH AFTER 01Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH BY 20Z SUNDAY.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
340 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
YET ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. MOST OF THE CWA IS
VOID OF PRECIPITATION AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE CLOSEST ORGANIZED
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS A NARROW ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN THE GRADIENT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE VIA A BROAD SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA IN THE POST-DAYBREAK PERIOD...OTHERWISE I
THINK THROUGH MID MORNING THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY
WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
...WITH A CONTINUED UPSWING IN COVERAGE THRU THE AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING ASCENT
VIA A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD OUT OF IA FROM THE RIDGE CREST.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS
RIVER...SANS SE MO. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING THERE ARE 2 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WHICH I ENVISION. THE FIRST
SCENARIO HAS AN MCS EVOLVING ACROSS NE MO/WC IL DUE TO UPSCALE
GROWTH FROM ALL THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DUE TO MERGERS AND COLD
POOL INTERACTION ENHANCED BY THE SSWLY LLJ AND THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT. THE OTHER PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THE CURRENT MCS OVER NW
IA/SE SD WILL TRACK SEWD TODAY AND THEN MERGE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN NE MO/WC IL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE END RESULT IN EITHER CASE IS A SEWD MOVING MCS
WHERE THE APEX TRACKS CLOSE TO THE MS RIVER DURING THE EVENING.
THERE COULD ALSO BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ON THE TRAILING
FLANK OF THE MCS ACROSS ERN MO DUE TO LIFT VIA THE SWLY
LLJ/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY. IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR THERE COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF IFS DUE TO MESOSCALE
FACTORS WHICH MUST COINCIDE. THE HRRR AND LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
NCAR 3KM ARW WRF LEND CREDENCE TO THESE SCENARIOS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
GLASS
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE QPF AND MASS FIELDS FROM THE MODELS
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ALLOWING NCAR ARW WRF
THAT AT LEAST THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE
LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE
TRACKING SEWD THRU THE AREA...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT WILL
BE TRYING TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR REMNANT
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS LIFT - BOTH RESIDENT FROM OVERNIGHT
AND ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY MOVING SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIR MASS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE UNSTABLE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY THAT THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CALM DOWN DUE TO PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE ERN U.S. AND THE
NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A RENEWED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN TROF SHIFTS INTO THE
NATIONS MIDSECTION.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS CYCLE. NOW
WATCHING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
STRETCHING SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECT
THIS DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE AND BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE NEVER REALLY DEVELOPS ANYTHING PARTICULARLY
HEAVY OR ORGANIZED...SO HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED THE VCTS FORECAST
IN MOST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY INSISTENT THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT SURE HOW STRONG
THIS ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST ONLY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. IF THE
SECOND SCENARIO IS MORE ACCURATE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST WELL
INTO THE EVENING...POTENTIALLY PAST 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS CYCLE.
EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE NEVER REALLY DEVELOPS ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR
ORGANIZED...SO HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED THE VCTS FORECAST. EXPECT
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS.
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY INSISTENT THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT SURE HOW STRONG
THIS ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST ONLY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. IF THE
SECOND SCENARIO IS MORE ACCURATE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST WELL
INTO THE EVENING...POTENTIALLY PAST 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.
CARNEY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 PM CDT Sat May 25 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
With convection struggling to develop along the frontal boundary
across far northern Missouri this evening, have opted to reduce the
chance of precipitation significantly over the next few hours. Some
development along an elevated boundary stretching from southeast
through central Iowa will be possible over the next few hours and
could build southwest into the forecast area, so have preserved
increased PoPs across our far northeast during the early morning
hours. Convection currently over north central Kansas may also push
eastward into the area after 09z, so have brought in slightly higher
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the northwest during this
period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
Very few changes were needed to the forecast through tomorrow. Based
on latest high res models, radar, and satellite trends it appears,
other than a stray shower across the MO/IA border, the CWA should
remain dry this evening. Later tonight a small cluster of storms is
progged to work in from the west, but the latest HRRR depicts a
weaker system than what much of the NRN third of the CWA experienced
early this morning. At this time I have an overnight precip forecast
that favors the northern half of the CWA with higher chance pops
compared to lower chances to the south. As for tomorrow, more of
the same with lingering scattered morning showers and weak
thunderstorms with perhaps redevelopment in the afternoon.
Temperature wise the CWA will remain mild and rather muggy as
compared to the past several days under partly to mostly cloudy
skies.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
The potential for wet weather looks to bracket either end of the
work week, though there will be plenty of dry days in between.
Shortwave ridge will be dominating the Central Plains as Memorial
Day dawns, with nocturnal thunderstorm activity likely lingering
through the morning hours. In general, operational and ensemble
models continue to advertise that this modest ridge will stay in
place across the Plains States through Tuesday, when the west CONUS
trough will finally begin to shift east. As the trough begins to
move into the Plains the storm track will shift farther north which
should give most locations in our forecast areas a break from the
rain chances. However, given the negative tilt to the trough as it
shifts into the Plains, and the general synoptic pattern, thoughts
are that storms will not only return tot he forecast, but severe
weather may plague the region by the end of the work week.
Currently, the best potential for storms looks to be Thursday night
and Friday night as the nocturnal jet cranks up ahead of the west
CONUS trough.
Otherwise, with the prevailing storm track, and by extension the
prevailing westerlies, remaining to the north of Kansas and Missouri
through the work week we expect temperatures to rise to a category
or two above normal through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
A cluster of thunderstorms across northern Kansas and southern
Nebraska continue to move eastward tonight. Models continue to show
these thunderstorms weakening as they approach the terminals however
there is some concern that these storms will see an uptick in
coverage and intensity as a 30-35kt nocturnal southerly LLJ begins to
get cranked up. Have left the TAF dry for now however if that line
holds together there will be the chance for diminished showers and
thunderstorms to move into the terminals by around 12Z. Otherwise,
conditions should remain VFR as expect bkn clouds around 5-6kft
through the overnight. GFS MOS and LAMP guidance as well as NAM BUFR
soundings are still trying to introduce MVFR cigs tomorrow morning
around 11Z however still think the boundary layer is too moist.
Did however include a sct deck around 2500ft around 11Z. Expect sct-
bkn cigs around 4kft through the afternoon tomorrow. There will be
the chance for afternoon thunderstorms however timing and placement
on these storms continue to be nebulous as it may be contingent on
any leftover outflow boundaries from tonights activity. Winds during
the TAF period will be out of the SSE around 8-15kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Laflin
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NRN
PLAINS THIS WEEK. A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY ACROSS ERN COLORADO AND FOCUSES...MOSITURE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DRY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING TONIGHT...THEN LOW CLOUDS FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING
REMAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM. WEAK COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO NW KS AND ERN CO.
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW INTO SC NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROUGH
NORTHWARD INTO SD. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOW IN THE HAND
ANALYSIS AS WELL.
QUITE A VARIED RANGE OF SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING
AS HRRR AND HIRES ARW SUGGEST NOTHING ORGANIZED WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF I80 CORRIDOR...BUT DEVELOP A MCS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IN THE
HIGHWAY 2 VCNTY AND MOVE IT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE NAM /AND HIRES
NMM/ AS WELL AS GFS SUGGEST TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE FIRST IN
SIMILAR AREAS TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS /SANDHILLS/ AND A
SECOND IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH ORGANIZES INTO A MCS AND
MOVES SOUTHEAST. FCST WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT TO SOME DEGREE BOTH
GROUPS OF SOLUTIONS HAVE REALISTIC POSSIBILITIES BASED ON BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BETTER
ORGANIZATION ONCE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THE SANDHILLS BY EVENING.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS AREA HOWEVER ARE NOT THE BEST AS WOULD
BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ALSO BELIEVE AIR MASS IS
STILL SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED IN THE LOW LAYERS AS A RESULT OF THE
OUTFLOW THAT WAS EVIDENT EARLIER THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL STILL A
POSSIBILITY HERE THOUGH WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EVEN
IF STORMS ARE ELEVATED WHICH SEEMS LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST ACROSS ERN CO AND
NW KS AND HAVE SURGED EWD AHEAD OF LEE SFC LOW IN NW KS. GOOD
THETA-E ADVECTION NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREAS AS WELL...THOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SOME CAP STILL PRESENT HERE AND SINCE LARGE
SCALE FORCING IS BEST FURTHER NORTH THE EXTENT OF CAP EROSION IS
ALSO IN QUESTION. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE IN THESE
LOCATIONS TO BE MORE CERTAIN ABOUT INITIATION. IF SFC BASED
DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH AS VERY GOOD ML
CAPE IS IN PLACE. THEREFORE...FCST INCLUDES POPS IN THESE AREAS BASED ON
PREVIOUS THINKING.
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS HAS SEEN A TENDENCY TO DEVELOP LOW CLOUD BEHIND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TWD DAYBREAK AND BELIEVE THAT SHOULD BE THE CASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. DEPICTING LOCATIONS IS DIFFICULT BUT
FAVORED AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 SEEM MOST LIKELY AND HAVE TRENDED
THE FCST THAT WAY. EVENTUAL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THESE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...BUT AS WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ALLOW 80S MOST PLACES.
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGESTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE
SOUTHERN LOCATION OF SFC FEATURES ONCE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GIVES WAY.
SOMEWHAT BETTER UPPER PV ANOMALY LOOKS TO SWING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TUCKED ACROSS ERN COLO FOCUSING
MOISTURE...DRY AIR AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEB.
THE SFC LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN TO AROUND 992 MB BY TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING NEAR 992 MB THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO WRN NEB LATE WEDNESDAY. THROUGH WEDNESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL GRADUALLY FALL WHILE H700 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY AT
10C-12C. WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SUPPORTING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR. NEARLY ALL OF THE FCST AREA HAS BEEN
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY SPC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALL
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT AS RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW
DEVELOPS AND SETS UP FOCUS FOR SUCCEEDING STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS THE
LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. A MULTI MODEL BLEND
WAS USED FOR POPS AND CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT. A SIMILAR STRATEGY WAS
USED FOR QPF. IN GENERAL NRN AND WRN NEB APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OFTEN CAP THE ATMOSPHERE.
A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NRN PACIFIC. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH SD AND
NEB TRIGGERING STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN TIME THE UPPER LEVEL WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES. FALLING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN EML CONDUCIVE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AS LONG AS THE PACIFIC FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE FCST
AREA...MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE PROVIDING
FUEL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...K INDICES INCREASE TO 40C
OR GREATER IN THE NAM AND GFS MODELS. THIS ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED FROM STORMS THIS LAST TWO
DAYS...SUGGEST SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EARLY THURSDAY AT THE LATEST. THIS WILL SHUNT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EAST OF THE FCST AREA. H500 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -18C
WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CIRCULATE
THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE COLD CORE WILL LIKELY
CENTER ACROSS ND/SD...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PERHAPS EVEN SATURDAY.
FCST MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
TIMING OF TSRA REMAINS THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WITH TAFS...ALONG
WITH POST CONVECTION CLOUD COVER. FOG DISSIPATING ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE IN THE KVTN AREA THOUGH LOW CLOUDS LINGER. TSRA CHANCES
INCREASE IN LATE AFTERNOON..THOUGH HAVE MOVED FCST TSRA FROM
PREVAILING CONDITION FOR NOW BASED ON THE IDEA THAT DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR FURTHER WEST AND MOVE INTO THE TAF AREA SO COVERAGE IS
IN QUESTION. AFTER CONVECTION WANES BELIEVE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG WILL REDEVELOP
TOWARD SUNRISE. FOR THE KLBF TAF SITE...ALSO BELIEVE TSRA CHANCES
ENTER THE PICTURE THIS EVENING...THOUGH COVERAGE AGAIN REMAINS IN
QUESTION. VSBYS IN TSRA SHOULD BE LOWER AT KLBF AS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT TO CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND HENCE
REDUCED VSBYS. AGAIN...LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXISTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION....JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THAT MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SETUP NORTH OF THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. THESE SHOULD TEND TO LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EVEN MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA. HELD ONTO SOME
CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
MILLER
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
THOUGHT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AT
ANY OF THE TAF POINTS OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO FELT CHANCES WERE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE A PROB30 GROUP OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER A BIT...INTO MAINLY THE MVFR
CATETORY BUT POSSIBLY TO IFR. IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
09Z-14Z. CEILINGS SHOULD TEND TO IMPROVE TOWARD VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
MILLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH TIMING OF HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ANY CONVECTION IS THE
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES GOOD IF NOT LIKELY MOST
AREAS MOST EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT PDS.
AT 19Z SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM JUST N OF FNB TO JUST SW OF
OLU/BVN WITH RESIDUAL COOL OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION
REINFORCING FRONT. CONVERGENCE NEAR BOUNDARY HAD INCREASED CU
FIELD WCNTRL ZONES AND LATEST RAP MESO ANALYSIS PLACED AXIS OF
2000-3000 J/KG ML CAPE ACROSS THAT AREA WITH LITTLE/NO CIN. SO
THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/N OF
THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS ANY SUBSIDENCE
EFFECTS OF DEPARTING MCV FROM EARLIER CONVECTION GETS FARTHER
REMOVED. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY MAKE A RUN TOWARD/INTO FA...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING MORE
ACROSS NRN ZONES AIDED BY RR ENTRANCE REGION OF WEAK UPPER JET
SEGMENT. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT ACTIVITY FARTHER S AS WELL SINCE
BOUNDARY MAY NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET DOES STRENGTHEN
SOME INTO FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRONGEST/MORE CONVERGENT AREA NOT
NECESSARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL NOT VERY GOOD. THAT SAID...SMALL AREA OF
NRN IA ZONES DID PICK UP 1-2+ INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THAT
AREA APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES. THUS ISSUED A SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH NE OF OMAHA TO MATCH
UP WITH DMX WHERE HEAVIER RAIN WAS MORE WIDESPREAD.
DECREASED POPS DIURNALLY ON SUNDAY LIKE TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WAS
NOTED THAT FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW NAM HAD DEVELOPED A SMALL MCS AND
DROPPED IT SE ACROSS FA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST WAS NOT
BASED ON THAT SCENARIO. ALSO MODELS HINTING AT MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUS INCREASED SKY COVER. IF CLOUDS HOLD ALL DAY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE ALTERED AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...LIKELY POPS MANY AREAS AGAIN WERE MENTIONED SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY POSSIBLY A VERY SIMILAR SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH FINER DETAILS
PROBABLY IMPACTED BY PREVIOUS PERIODS CONVECTION BOTH DAYS.
SOME INDICATION BY MODELS THAT A FRONT...POSSIBLY AIDED BY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WILL PUSH S INTO NRN ZONES ON TUESDAY AS A
STRONGER WAVE EJECTS ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIE. COOLING AT H85
MINIMAL FOR THAT AREA...BUT NE WINDS AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS
COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER AND THIS COULD NEED ATTENTION IN LATER
FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...THIS BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO
APPROACH AREA WILL KEEP AREA ACTIVE TUESDAY/TUE NGT. WEDNESDAY
COULD POSSIBLY BE MORE OF A LULL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE
STRONGER ENERGY PUNCHES ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WED NGT/THURSDAY
INCREASING COVERAGE/CHCS AGAIN. ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST INTO TUESDAY...THIS STRONGER TROUGH COULD BRING A HEIGHTENED
RISK OF SVR WEATHER TO AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1012 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
VERY SLOW MOVING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CNTRL ND INCHING
NORTH-NORTHEAST A BIT AND SLOWLY DRYING SOME AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
A BIT DRIER AIRMASS. 00Z NAM REALLY DRIES IT UP AND CONTINUES TO
LIFT IT NORTH-NORTH-EAST TONIGHT THRU DVL REGION AND THIS IS STILL
REASONABLE THOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. NO MORE LIGHTNING SO
WENT JUST SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR
EAST AS THE RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES AM SO KEPT SOME LOW
POPS FOR THAT IDEA. MIN TEMPS LOOKING GOOD SO NO CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE INTO SE MT PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG
CONVECTION ACROSS MT/SD/ND BORDER AREA VCNTY SURFACE LOW. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS COMPLEX NNE OVERNIGHT. EASTERN
EDGE COULD CLIP WESTERN FA LATER TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
POPS THERE. ANOTHER AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG BOUNDARY
FROM S CENTRAL SD INTO IOWA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FA SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FEEL GFS HAS
BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED DEWPOINTS SO WILL FOLLOW ITS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA. CLOUDS AGAIN WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES BUT
COLUMN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SUBSIDENCE ZONE BEHIND WAVE SO WILL STICK WITH WARMER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT SHOULD
REMAIN SW OF FA. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON THE INCREASE WILL SEE
WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
WEDNESDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY HOWEVER AS MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO LIFT
NE CENTRAL PLAINS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO LIFT NE AND COULD SEE SOME
CONVECTION WORKING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LIFTS
THROUGH FA AND UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
FAR NORTH BOUNDARY LIFTS AND WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY 00 UTC SATURDAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS NEAR PIERRE SD WITH THE GEM...THE ND/SD/MN TRI-STATE BORDER
REGION WITH THE GFS AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF MINOT
WITH THE ECMWF. THE DGEX IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE GEM. AT THIS TIME...
THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER WHERE AFTER A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...IT LIFTS THE RESPONSIBLE WARM FRONT
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THE GFS/GEM/
DGEX...HOWEVER...PLACE THE NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
INCH. WILL LEAN TOWARD SIMILAR WETTER SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME...WHICH
MATCHES WELL WITH ALL BLEND 40 TO 60 POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FARTHER SOUTH
AND SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
INCLUDED VCSH AT GRAND FORKS AND A FEW SHOWERS AT KDVL THRU 02Z.
THEN DID KEEP A TEMP GROUP FOR LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AT GFK TOWARD
12Z IN CASE SOME ACTIVITY MAKES IT EAST. 23Z RAP HINTS AT THAT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECK TO LOWER A BIT AGAIN AFTER DARK
WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING AREA WIDE AFTER 06Z THRU 17Z. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PICKING UP 10-15 KTS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
ALL RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE RED RIVER IS
CRESTING JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT PEMBINA AND IS BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY FALL FROM A CREST RIGHT AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT
DRAYTON...WHILE THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OR REMAIN STEADY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...WALSH...AND
EASTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WATER LEVELS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
707 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE AS LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DISSPIATE WITH
SUNSET IN NORTHEAST ND. OTHER AREA OF RAIN LIFTING NNE THROUGH
WILLISTON-MINOT MOVING TOWARD DVL AS WELL BUT AREA IS WEAKENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE INTO SE MT PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG
CONVECTION ACROSS MT/SD/ND BORDER AREA VCNTY SURFACE LOW. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS COMPLEX NNE OVERNIGHT. EASTERN
EDGE COULD CLIP WESTERN FA LATER TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
POPS THERE. ANOTHER AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG BOUNDARY
FROM S CENTRAL SD INTO IOWA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FA SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FEEL GFS HAS
BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED DEWPOINTS SO WILL FOLLOW ITS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA. CLOUDS AGAIN WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES BUT
COLUMN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SUBSIDENCE ZONE BEHIND WAVE SO WILL STICK WITH WARMER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT SHOULD
REMAIN SW OF FA. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON THE INCREASE WILL SEE
WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
WEDNESDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY HOWEVER AS MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO LIFT
NE CENTRAL PLAINS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO LIFT NE AND COULD SEE SOME
CONVECTION WORKING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LIFTS
THROUGH FA AND UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
FAR NORTH BOUNDARY LIFTS AND WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY 00 UTC SATURDAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS NEAR PIERRE SD WITH THE GEM...THE ND/SD/MN TRI-STATE BORDER
REGION WITH THE GFS AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF MINOT
WITH THE ECMWF. THE DGEX IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE GEM. AT THIS TIME...
THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER WHERE AFTER A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...IT LIFTS THE RESPONSIBLE WARM FRONT
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THE GFS/GEM/
DGEX...HOWEVER...PLACE THE NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE
INCH. WILL LEAN TOWARD SIMILAR WETTER SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME...WHICH
MATCHES WELL WITH ALL BLEND 40 TO 60 POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FARTHER SOUTH
AND SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
INCLUDED VCSH AT GRAND FORKS AND A FEW SHOWERS AT KDVL THRU 02Z.
THEN DID KEEP A TEMP GROUP FOR LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AT GFK TOWARD
12Z IN CASE SOME ACTIVITY MAKES IT EAST. 23Z RAP HINTS AT THAT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECK TO LOWER A BIT AGAIN AFTER DARK
WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING AREA WIDE AFTER 06Z THRU 17Z. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PICKING UP 10-15 KTS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
ALL RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE RED RIVER IS
CRESTING JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT PEMBINA AND IS BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY FALL FROM A CREST RIGHT AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT
DRAYTON...WHILE THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OR REMAIN STEADY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...WALSH...AND
EASTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WATER LEVELS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO LESSEN OR PUSH
BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THIS THERE IS LITTLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
RESOLVING THIS IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
CURRENTLY...MVFR-IFR STRATUS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOURIS TO JAMES
RIVER BASINS...WHILE STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED BUT WELL DEVELOPED CU
FIELD HAS BROKEN OUT OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MID
50S DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. CURRENT SPC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH DIMINISHING CIHN OVER THE
MONDAK REGION WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
INITIATED OVER THE BIGHORNS AND BLACK HILLS. GGW 18Z SOUNDING AND
CURRENT LAPS SOUNDING NEAR KOLF INDICATE A NEAR COMPLETE ERODED
CAP OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
WYOMING WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THIS SAID...MODELS ARE NOT POINTING TO STRONG
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF BRING BEST CHANCES INTO THE FAR WEST
LATE TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. 12 UTC NAM AND 17 UTC HRRR BRING CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE
BIGHORNS INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA BUT THEN SUPPRESS REFLECTIVITIES
AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. 12 UTC HIRES ARW/NMM EAST
BOTH POINT MORE TOWARD LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WEST
AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
ON MONDAY.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST TO CHANCE POPS
WEST THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHEST
POPS REMAINING IN THE WEST. THEN BASICALLY A BROAD BRUSH OF HIGH
CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY DUE TO SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT. WITH AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. IF CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.
ALTHOUGH SPC SLIGHT RISK DOES INCLUDE A PORTION OF THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THIS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE.
MODELS DO INDICATE INCREASING 925MB MOISTURE TONIGHT. CONSIDERED
ADDING A MENTION OF FOG...BUT THINK THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE LOW
STRATUS AND LIFR CEILINGS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING FOG FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LONG WAVE TROUGH WEST AND RIDGING EAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING AS A STRONG S/WV LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
SCALED BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING AS A S/WV
RIDGE ADVANCES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR INTO
MY WEST. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST RESULTING IN FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN...WITH A LEAD IMPULSE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH IS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF TO SWING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH MORPHS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SATURDAY IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE LOW BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVING
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH MODEL
SOLUTIONS RESULT IN HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AFTERWARDS FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS
IN THE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS TO START AT
KISN...KDIK AND KBIS...WITH MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AT KMOT AND KJMS.
EXPECT A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT KJMS AND KMOT. DEVELOPING
CU FIELD WILL LIKELY BRING BKN MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO KBIS AND KDIK
BY 20Z...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF VFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. MODELS ALL AGREE ON BRINGING
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SO BROUGHT
CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR-LIFR AROUND 06-10Z AT ALL SITES...WITH SOME
MVFR FOG. THINK LIFT STRATUS WILL BE THE GREATER THREAT...RATHER
THAN VISIBILITIES. THEN BROUGHT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 16Z
MONDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND VCTS OVER KDIK AND KISN FOR
NOW LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
934 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO WORK EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...PRIMARILY AFFECTING OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY WEAKENING AS THEY PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE BEFORE THEY
GENERALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM LIFTS NORTH AND WE
ALSO LOSE THE BETTER INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING EAST ALONG A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA. EXPECT THESE TOO TO WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH EAST THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. THAT BEING SAID...THE EASTWARD EXTENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN
DOUBT. THE LATEST HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW SOME PCPN HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SO WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS MAKING IT INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHWEST TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE INTO NW AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THERE IS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
TUESDAY WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF
30 MILES PER HOUR. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
DOWN INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CAP THE REGION LEADING TO DRY AND VERY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A SOMEWHAT QUICKER SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE. SO IT APPEARS
THAT HEIGHTS WILL LOWER ENOUGH BY FRIDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH
STILL SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT. BUT A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND PUSH IT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY
TROUGH. BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. THESE STORMS ARE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL COVER THE THREAT WITH A VCTS. A TAIL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DISSIPATING THIS LINE AS IT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND WE BEGIN TO LOSE SOME OF OUR BETTER INSTABILITIES. WE SHOULD
THEN SEE A LULL IN ANY ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL ONCE AGAIN DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY AT THIS POINT THOUGH AS EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
638 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BASED
ON LATEST HRRR AND RUC. NEWEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LINE OF
TSTORMS CURRENTLY WEST RIVER WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. KEPT EVERYTHING EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY DRY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
JAMES VALLEY ITSELF. ALSO LOWERED THE CHANCES OF STORMS BETWEEN
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE JAMES RIVER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ALRIGHT AND NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY TONIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WYOMING IS PRODUCING
SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EASTWARD DUE TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LITTLE INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES. BASED ON SEVERAL
HI-RES MODELS...IT SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY CONVECTION WILL REACH THE
MISSOURI RIVER BEFORE 0Z...MAY PERHAPS THE JAMES RIVER CLOSER TO
6Z. GENERALLY EXPECTING A SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORM CELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA SHORTY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THAT
SAID...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
PEAK HEATING COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE CAPE
VALUES ARE FAIRLY GOOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
LIFT AND SHEAR IS LACKING SO STRONG STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
INCREASING LLM VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER BACKWARD TOWARDS THE BLACK HILLS REGION WHERE UP-
SLOPE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
THIS CWA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM AND THEN
DIVERGE SOME THROUGH MID AND LATE IN THE LONG TERM. A STRONGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
US IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. AS IT DOES...THE
TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE LOCATION OF CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION AND SUBSEQUENT TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH LARGE BROAD SCALE LIFT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
GOOD WARM FRONT SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...EXPECT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION. EVERYTHING WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A STRONG LLJ
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS EARLY AND IS WIDESPREAD...SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE MORE
LIMITED. HAVE IN GOOD CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT...THURSDAY MAY
ALSO HAVE SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY EAST IN THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE DRYING IT OUT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
COOLING BACK TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. MONDAY SHOULD WARM BACK UP WITH MORE
SUNSHINE WITH THE AFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COMING IN FROM
THE WEST BRINGING THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
COOL MOIST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP LOW MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS
AT KATY THIS EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER AGAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT MBG...ABR AND ATY. EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
SOME FOG AT ABR AND ATY AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. OTHERWISE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING AND WILL AFFECT MBG AND POSSIBLY PIR THROUGH 5Z.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
405 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE CAN WE
TURN THAT POTENTIAL INTO REALITY.
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REMAIN A
PRIME AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE SNEAKS INTO THE PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT
WILL LEAVE THE RED FLAG IN PLACE AND UNMODIFIED. FOR THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES THERE REMAINS A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TTU WRF AND RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS
SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF A VEGA TO
GUYMON LINE. RUC BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP INHIBITING
INITIATION OF THESE STORMS UNTIL 6-7PM THIS EVENING. SHOULD THESE
STORMS FORM THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE AREA OF LIKELY
INITIATION IS 25 TO 35 KT WITH A SLIGHT VEERING PATTERN. GIVEN
THE DEEP DRY LAYER BENEATH THE EXPECTED STORM BASES DAMAGING WINDS
OF 65 TO 70 MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD BUT A HAIL THREAT CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. ALL OF THIS IS ASSUMING THE WEAK CAP CAN BE
OVERCOME TO ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 2 AM MONDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL RACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL PLACE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLES UNDER EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE. WITH THAT BEING SAID RECENT RAINS PLUS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN WE GET TONIGHT WILL HELP TO MITIGATE SOME OF THIS
POTENTIAL. HAVE DECIDED TO NOT CARRY HEADLINES FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF PRECIP AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE FROM ANY STORMS
TONIGHT...BUT IF NO PRECIPITATION OCCURS A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO A DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND THE OTHER MODELS SLIGHTLY. ALSO OF
NOTE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM PLACING
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND CAUSING PRECIP CHANCES TO OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE A MIX OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WEST AND
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE POSITION
OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE MAJOR DETERMINING FACTOR AS TO WHO GETS
WHAT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A SPLIT OF THE GFS AND NAM ON DRYLINE
PLACEMENT WHICH ENDS UP BEING ROUGHLY ALONG A GUYMON TO CLAUDE LINE.
LOCATIONS WEST OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LOCATION
EAST OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYNOPTIC
LIFT COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR THIS TIME RANGES FROM 20 TO 35 KT AND INSTABILITY VALUES
RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO TAKE A NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES. INSTABILITY
VALUES LOOK TO HAVE LOWERED SLIGHT WHICH COULD ALSO MEAN THAT THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY. WITH THAT BEING
SAID CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO
45 KT WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AND A POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO KEEP THAT AREA DRY AND
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT AND
ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO RECOVER. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWESTERN
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MAY ONLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY WITH
MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON
MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE SOME
LIMITATIONS ON FIRE POTENTIAL...TO GO ALONG WITH LOW FUEL LOADING
DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HEADLINES SILENT FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND 20 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS. HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHICH COULD BRING AN EARLY END TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD THE WESTERN PANHANDLES GET LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...MOORE...SHERMAN.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
15/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. MINOR UPDATE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
TO REFLECT INCREASING CHANCES OF ISOLATED DRYLINE STORMS BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TWO AREAS
OF INTEREST FOR POSSIBLE INITIATION ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE...
THE FIRST AREA IS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE BULGE WHILE A SECOND MORE SUBTLE ZONE OF
INTEREST IS EMERGING FARTHER SOUTH IN THE PERMIAN BASIN WHERE LL
CONVERGENCE IS IMPROVING. RECENT BACKING OF WINDS AT SNYDER AND
VEERING OF WINDS FARTHER WEST AT ANDREWS SUGGEST THE 15Z HRRR MAY
BE CREDIBLE WITH INITIATION HERE BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH ALONG THE
DRYLINE. OPTED TO EXPAND ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORM MENTION OFF THE
CAPROCK AS ANY STORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA COULD CERTAINLY
THREATEN OUR LOW ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN MORE EASTERLY STORM MOTIONS
HERE VERSUS SELY STORM MOTIONS AND HIGHER PROBS OF SUPERCELLS
FARTHER NORTH. LACK OF CU THUS FAR IS AN INDICATION THAT MOISTURE
IS DEEPER THEREBY LIMITING GREATER MIXING HEIGHTS...BUT WITH TIME
WE EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S AND PROMOTE A DEEPENING DRYLINE
CIRCULATION. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF ISO +TSRAGR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z ALONG A
DRYLINE NEAR I-27...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15-20 KNOTS. EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS PRECLUDES MENTION IN
TAFS...BUT WILL AMMEND IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. BEST CHANCE OF LOW
STRATUS BY DAYBREAK MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 61 95 62 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
TULIA 92 64 96 65 92 / 20 20 10 10 30
PLAINVIEW 93 65 96 65 92 / 20 20 10 10 30
LEVELLAND 96 68 97 65 93 / 20 20 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 95 68 98 66 92 / 20 20 20 10 30
DENVER CITY 97 67 97 65 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 97 69 98 65 93 / 20 20 20 10 20
CHILDRESS 95 69 97 69 92 / 20 20 20 20 30
SPUR 92 68 97 68 92 / 20 20 20 20 20
ASPERMONT 94 69 95 69 94 / 20 20 10 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/99/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1210 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING. AVIATION BELOW HAS MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODELS THIS CYCLE PREDICT MVFR CEILINGS WILL COVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BY 12Z. SATELLITE IR LOOP SHOWS STRATUS ALREADY INVADING OUR
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES AND OUR SOUTHERN HEARTLAND.
FARTHER NORTH...HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE MASKED SOME OF THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY. WHAT REMAINS UNMASKED IN THOSE TWO AREAS
SHOWS STRATUS IS NOT DEVELOPING THERE LIKE IT IS FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SO...I WILL LIKELY ADJUST THE ONSET
TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...I WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OTHER THREE TERMINALS. ALSO...MODELS THIS CYCLE RETURN VFR
CEILINGS TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 18Z TOMORROW.
AS FOR CONVECTION...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY CONTINUE LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE SAN ANGELO AREA SOMETIME AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. SO...I WILL LIKELY
ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER IN THE SAN ANGELO TERMINAL FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
UPDATE...
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR POPS...WEATHER AND SKY CONDITION
OVERNIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...
HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH TOPS
ARE WARMING ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE SYSTEM IS STILL
HOLDING STRONG AND APPROACHING OUR WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES.
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE IS SOUTHEAST NEAR
40 KT. EXPECT THIS MCS TO EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WHILE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR WEATHER/POPS AND
SKY CONDITION. CARRYING THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...TRAILING OFF TO BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS
NEEDED OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
EXPECT STRATUS TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AVIATION BELOW HAS DETAILS.
AVIATION...
MODELS DATA INDICATE STRATUS WILL RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND NOON TOMORROW. THE LATEST RUC 925
MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND FIELD DATA INDICATE STRATUS WILL
RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...BEGINNING AROUND 03Z. BY 06Z TONIGHT...PLAN FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOS GUIDANCE DATA FROM
THE GFS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
AT ALL 5 TERMINALS. THE NAM BASED GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
PREDICTS IFR CEILINGS AROUND 700 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. I
DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST FAVORING THE GFS
SOLUTION...MAINLY BASED ON PERSISTENCE. AS WAS THE CASE
TODAY...LOOK FOR VFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
AROUND NOON TOMORROW.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
UPDATE...
FORECAST IS BEING UPDATED FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY CONDITION. SEE
DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WERE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLIER TODAY HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED.
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS GIVEN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND ACROSS EAST TEXAS...AND WITH THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCE IN
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO END BY OR BEFORE 9 PM. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
21Z-00Z WEATHER GRID TO REFLECT THE AFOREMENTIONED TRENDS...AND HAVE
ENDED THE RAIN CHANCE AFTER 02Z. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...IN MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITION GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOWARD MORNING...TO ROUGHLY THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TO ERODE BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE ALSO MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF GRIDS FROM
21Z-00Z. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
TONIGHT...HAVE DROPPED THE QPF GRIDS TO ZERO. UPDATED FORECAST
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
SHORT TERM...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COAST NORTH OVER MUCH OF
EAST TEXAS. WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
CWA...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...BRINGING AN END TO OUR RAINFALL
CHANCES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY...LOWER 90S VS
LOW TO MID 80S.
15
LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY
PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS...AND MIDWEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES
INTO THE PACNW. WE WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL BOTH ENHANCE THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER /EML/ AND SUPPORT LEE
CYCLOGENESIS. THE LATTER WILL PROVIDE BRISK SOUTH WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME WIND SPEEDS OF
15-25 MPH AREAWIDE. A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
GUSTS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FOUND ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA...KEEPING DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND
PUSHING OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH
THE WEEK. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY BE TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BUT I WILL GET MORE INTO THAT IN A BIT.
I EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
MONDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE...THE CAP LOOKS TO HOLD
AND KEEP A LID ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF
WEST CENTRAL TX.
PRECIPITATION STILL DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING ON TUESDAY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE EML. THAT SAID...I DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF A SONORA...TO WINTERS...
TO HASKELL LINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD DRIFT ON CONVECTION
OVER WEST TX. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY DO DIFFER IN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST
FORCING...WITH THE GFS FAVORING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
ECMWF LOOKING FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD WEST TX. EITHER WAY...SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WILL WORK ON THE EML...LIFTING AND COOLING THE LAYER
TO ERODE THE CAP. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
ASCENT REACHES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST GIVEN THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE BIG QUESTION /AS IS USUALLY THE CASE/ IS THE
CAP.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER ON THURSDAY BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING
LOOKS TO MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEP...
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH STRONG WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER WEST TX. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE DRYLINE DRY
TO MIX EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE EML LOOKS TO TAKE OVER WITH
THE CAP STRENGTHENING AND TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN CHANCE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH BEING REPLACED BY A SPLIT
FLOW REGIME.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 68 91 69 91 68 / 30 10 5 5 10
SAN ANGELO 68 91 69 92 70 / 30 10 5 5 10
JUNCTION 66 91 69 88 71 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.AVIATION...
STRONG POST-THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE KLBB
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 0630 UTC. THEN...LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KCDS BY AROUND 1000 UTC. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KLBB AT WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAF. ASIDE FROM THE OUTFLOW...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ADDED A CB MENTION AT KLBB BY LATE AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO RECONFIGURE POPS FAVORING THE NORTH-
CENTRAL...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES...GIVEN THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. OVERALL WEAKENING STORM INTENSITIES SHOULD CONTINUE
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS...AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
TIME AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES GRADUALLY GUST OUT. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHWESTERN MOST ZONES...WHERE
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS POISED TO MOVE IN. HAIL AND WIND
THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORMS MOVE INTO
STRONG INSTABILITY...THOUGH EXPECT A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
AFTER SUNSET. STILL...GUSTY /AND DUSTY/ OUTFLOW COULD ORGANIZE AND
MAKE A PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE -TSRA AND/OR STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT KLBB
LATE THIS EVENING...AND MVFR CEILINGS AT KCDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. T-STORMS IN EASTERN NM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY DECAY BEFORE REACHING KLBB. THE PASSAGE
OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CONSIDERED MORE LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. WE HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS ASSOC. WITH ANY
BOUNDARY...SO WE HAVE KEPT THEM ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE IN A
TEMPO MENTION. AT KCDS...WE EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO MOVE IN AROUND
10 UTC...THEN GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT SUN MORN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CB DEVELOPING
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
SHORT TERM...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM THE SACRAMENTOS NORTH TO SANTA ROSA. A SECOND
AREA OF INTEREST IS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE ALONG THE MESCALERO
ESCARPMENT WHERE AGITATED CU HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR AND
NAM-WRF BOTH PROG TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS CU LINE BEFORE 00Z
AND CARRY IT EASTWARD TO VARIOUS DEGREES WITHIN 20 KNOTS OF
700-500MB FLOW. CONSIDERING CINH IS TRENDING NEGLIGIBLE ALONG THE
NM/TX STATE LINE AND SBCAPE IS AROUND 2K J/KG...HAVE ADDED SEVERE
MENTION TO OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PEAK IN INTENSITY BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS THE MIXING LAYER
DECOUPLES. LITTLE/NO BACKGROUND SUPPORT MAY FURTHER LIMIT THE
CHANCES OF THIS PERSISTING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED MENTION THROUGH 06Z.
SUNDAY WILL SEE IMPROVED W-SWLY FLOW OVERSPREAD THE REGION RESULTING
IN THE DRYLINE MIXING OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND STALLING SOMEWHERE OVER
THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA. ALBEIT MODEST...AN ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF
GULF MOISTURE BY EARLY SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO SECURE HIGHER SBCAPES
GENERALLY AROUND 3500 J/KG ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH EVEN EXTREME
VALUES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...HOWEVER THE LATTER IS SHOWN TO REMAIN
CAPPED AND TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE DRYLINE. NO DISCERNIBLE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGGED...BUT AS IS THE CASE TODAY DEEP MIXING
SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST ISO TSTMS. WINDOW FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL BE OPENED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS RISE TO NEARLY 40
KNOTS AND MAINTAIN A PERPENDICULAR ORIENTATION TO THE DRYLINE.
ROBUST CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
LCL VALUES WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR SOME VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
DOWNBURSTS. MOST HIGH TEMPS WERE KEPT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
MOS...PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
COULD END UP WITH THE HOTTEST VALUES FOR THE DAY.
LONG TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THENCE WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS COME ASHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TOWARD MID WEEK...FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEEPENS FROM THE PAC NW.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW AS UPPER LOW SETTLES
ACROSS WYOMING THOUGH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE WY
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE THU/EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES
PERSISTING THROUGH DAY 7.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSRA INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS SETTLING AFTER SUNSET. DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH INTO NEW
MEXICO OVERNIGHT THEN TIGHTEN UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION LOOKING MOST LIKELY EAST OF A SILVERTON TO BROWNFIELD
LINE THOUGH SOME VARIANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INFLUENCES OF
SUNDAY NIGHT/S STORMS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO KEEP THE DRYLINE A BIT
FURTHER WEST THUS GIVING MORE OF THE AREA A SHOT AT THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. WITH THE MORE STRONGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...THIS
COULD BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEK THOUGH
EACH DAY WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT IS
THAT EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE SLOSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. AT PRESENT...IT WOULD APPEAR THE TORNADO THREAT THIS
WEEK WOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE...ELEVATED TO LOW END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON AS MIN AFTN RH
DROPS TO THE LOWER TEENS WITH THE BREEZY WEST-OF-THE-DRYLINE WINDS.
OUR NORTHWEST HAS SEEN THE LOWEST AMOUNT OF GREEN-UP DUE TO THE LACK
OF PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING AND WHILE FUELS ARE NOT
PLENTIFUL...WHAT IS THERE WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BURN QUITE EASILY
GIVEN THE RIGHT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 94 62 94 61 / 20 20 20 10 10
TULIA 61 94 65 94 64 / 40 20 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 62 93 65 95 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 63 95 68 95 67 / 50 20 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 65 94 67 95 67 / 40 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 62 95 68 95 68 / 30 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 63 95 68 96 68 / 60 20 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 68 94 67 94 67 / 20 10 10 10 20
SPUR 65 92 68 95 68 / 20 10 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 68 93 69 92 69 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF KGKY
/ARLINGTON/ AT 0430Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH. HAVE PLACED
6SM SHRA IN THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 06-08Z PERIOD...AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD VCTS OR TSRA IF THE SHOWERS BECOME THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
WACO AREA AROUND 09Z...AND INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 11Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AFTER 16Z SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 16Z SUNDAY AND SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CIGS UP INTO WACO AND THE METROPLEX
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT /07Z AND 09Z MONDAY RESPECTIVELY/.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
00Z FWD RAOB SHOWS THAT WE ARE ALREADY CAPPED AT THE SURFACE FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. LATEST AREA RADARS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY
WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CAPPING INVERSION. LOWERED THE 50 POPS
ACROSS THE SE TO 30 FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THINGS RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE NIGHT...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORECASTED.
WE DO ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION WHICH IS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AS IT PROGRESSES EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LATEST HRRR BRINGS THE WEAKENING STORMS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE DYING OFF. WILL KEEP THE 20 POPS ACROSS THE
WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
THROUGH TONIGHT...LEFT THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE FORECAST
DISCUSSION ATTACHED BELOW FOR REFERENCE AND MORE DETAILS ON THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS.
CHANGES FROM EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE MCV THAT WAS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR SAN ANTONIO WAS APPARENT IN REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS
NEAR AUSTIN AND GONZALEZ AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. ASSUMING
THAT THIS IS THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL LOW/MCV PRODUCED BY THE
PERSISTENT SAN ANTONIO AREA CONVECTION THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH ITS EXPECTED
TRAJECTORY. THE 19Z RUN OF THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE POSITION OF THIS MCV...SO GENERALLY USED THIS MODEL FOR
GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HRS.
THE MCV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT...TAKING IT FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION TO JUST
NORTHEAST OF TYLER BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS ANALYZED IN THE 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA WILL INTERACT WITH THIS MCV FAVORABLY AND RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-20 AFTER MIDNIGHT...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE
ARKLATEX AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
EXIST...SO THIS SOLUTION IS VIABLE...HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ADVERTISED BY THE GFS IS GREATLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. THAT IS...MODEL GENERATED STORMS COOL OFF LOCATIONS
DOWNSTREAM /NORTHEAST/ ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ARTIFICIALLY
RAMP UP RESULTING IN THE GENERATION OF MORE STORMS. IN SHORT...A
MODEL GENERATED FEEDBACK LOOP. THIS LOOP MAY VERIFY AND RESULT IN
A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EAST OF I-35 TO THE ARKLATEX AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT REALLY ANY HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN A WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN EVENT.
THAT SAID...MANY FACTORS ARE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ANYWHERE STORMS EXIST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HRS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF
HISTORICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THIS REGION IN LATE MAY.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS
UNCAPPED...IN SHORT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR VERY TALL RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND ONLY WEAK GENERATION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WEAK OUTFLOW MEANS THAT STORMS CAN REMAIN IN
ONE PLACE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS AND A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH A MENTION OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WORDED FORECAST.
WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR IN THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEHAVE IN A NEARLY TROPICAL NATURE WITH EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. THEREFORE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO
BE VERY SMALL TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A LOCALIZED FLOODING EVENT...ESPECIALLY WITH MANY
PEOPLE LIKELY CAMPING OUTDOORS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SUNDAY...SUNDAY MORNING WE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME REMNANT POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG A SULPHUR SPRINGS TO PALESTINE LINE...LIKELY
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX REGION THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS. FROM THE WEST...THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED
THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/TX
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR WESTERN CWA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...NOT SO MUCH
FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STAND POINT BUT FROM ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SOURCE FOR MCV PRODUCTION. WITH THE SAN ANTONIO AREA MCV AND
LARGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE
ANY MCV MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND THRU NORTH TX TOMORROW.
HOWEVER UNTIL WE GET SOME DRIER AIR IN OVER THE REGION CAPPING OFF
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WILL HOLD ON TO A
BROAD BRUSHED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TX THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING MONDAY A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE SENDING THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ENTRAPPED MCV
FEATURES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TX ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO ADVECT A RELATIVELY STOUT CAP IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CAP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK UNLESS THE DRYLINE OR A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN LIFT
THE CAP AND RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING THE WEEK
AHEAD.
WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE RELATIVELY PERSISTENT...BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS IN PLACE BELOW THE CAP THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
GOOD GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER THE CAP PROVIDING PLENTY OF
POSITIVE CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF ANYTHING CAN REMOVE
THE CAP. WITHOUT STORMS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS HOLD IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EACH DAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF
REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS TROUGH WHICH IS WHAT WE WILL NEED
TO LIFT THE CAP AND RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS INDICATES THE BEST FORCING STAYS
NORTH OF THE CWA. WENT AHEAD WITH 20 TO 30 POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE
35...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RESULT. REMOVED POPS THEREAFTER WITH ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH ON
THURSDAY.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 69 84 67 86 69 / 30 20 10 0 0
WACO, TX 68 86 67 88 69 / 30 20 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 69 82 65 84 67 / 30 30 10 0 0
DENTON, TX 66 83 66 85 68 / 30 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 68 82 66 86 68 / 30 20 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 71 83 70 88 72 / 30 20 10 0 0
TERRELL, TX 70 82 67 87 69 / 30 30 10 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 69 83 68 88 69 / 30 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 68 85 67 87 69 / 30 20 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 67 86 66 87 68 / 20 20 10 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1120 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR POPS...WEATHER AND SKY CONDITION
OVERNIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH TOPS
ARE WARMING ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE SYSTEM IS STILL
HOLDING STRONG AND APPROACHING OUR WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES.
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE IS SOUTHEAST NEAR
40 KT. EXPECT THIS MCS TO EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WHILE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR WEATHER/POPS AND
SKY CONDITION. CARRYING THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...TRAILING OFF TO BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS
NEEDED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
EXPECT STRATUS TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AVIATION BELOW HAS DETAILS.
AVIATION...
MODELS DATA INDICATE STRATUS WILL RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND NOON TOMORROW. THE LATEST RUC 925
MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND FIELD DATA INDICATE STRATUS WILL
RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...BEGINNING AROUND 03Z. BY 06Z TONIGHT...PLAN FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MOS GUIDANCE DATA FROM
THE GFS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
AT ALL 5 TERMINALS. THE NAM BASED GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
PREDICTS IFR CEILINGS AROUND 700 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. I
DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST FAVORING THE GFS
SOLUTION...MAINLY BASED ON PERSISTENCE. AS WAS THE CASE
TODAY...LOOK FOR VFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
AROUND NOON TOMORROW.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
UPDATE...
FORECAST IS BEING UPDATED FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY CONDITION. SEE
DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WERE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLIER TODAY HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED.
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS GIVEN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND ACROSS EAST TEXAS...AND WITH THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCE IN
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO END BY OR BEFORE 9 PM. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
21Z-00Z WEATHER GRID TO REFLECT THE AFOREMENTIONED TRENDS...AND HAVE
ENDED THE RAIN CHANCE AFTER 02Z. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...IN MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITION GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOWARD MORNING...TO ROUGHLY THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TO ERODE BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE ALSO MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF GRIDS FROM
21Z-00Z. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
TONIGHT...HAVE DROPPED THE QPF GRIDS TO ZERO. UPDATED FORECAST
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
SHORT TERM...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COAST NORTH OVER MUCH OF
EAST TEXAS. WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
CWA...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...BRINGING AN END TO OUR RAINFALL
CHANCES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY...LOWER 90S VS
LOW TO MID 80S.
15
LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY
PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS...AND MIDWEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES
INTO THE PACNW. WE WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL BOTH ENHANCE THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER /EML/ AND SUPPORT LEE
CYCLOGENESIS. THE LATTER WILL PROVIDE BRISK SOUTH WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME WIND SPEEDS OF
15-25 MPH AREAWIDE. A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
GUSTS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FOUND ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL PROVIDE A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA...KEEPING DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND
PUSHING OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH
THE WEEK. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY BE TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BUT I WILL GET MORE INTO THAT IN A BIT.
I EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
MONDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE...THE CAP LOOKS TO HOLD
AND KEEP A LID ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF
WEST CENTRAL TX.
PRECIPITATION STILL DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING ON TUESDAY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE EML. THAT SAID...I DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF A SONORA...TO WINTERS...
TO HASKELL LINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD DRIFT ON CONVECTION
OVER WEST TX. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY DO DIFFER IN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST
FORCING...WITH THE GFS FAVORING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
ECMWF LOOKING FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD WEST TX. EITHER WAY...SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WILL WORK ON THE EML...LIFTING AND COOLING THE LAYER
TO ERODE THE CAP. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
ASCENT REACHES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST GIVEN THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE BIG QUESTION /AS IS USUALLY THE CASE/ IS THE
CAP.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER ON THURSDAY BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING
LOOKS TO MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEP...
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH STRONG WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER WEST TX. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE DRYLINE DRY
TO MIX EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THE EML LOOKS TO TAKE OVER WITH
THE CAP STRENGTHENING AND TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN CHANCE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH BEING REPLACED BY A SPLIT
FLOW REGIME.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 68 91 69 91 68 / 30 10 5 5 10
SAN ANGELO 68 91 69 92 70 / 30 10 5 5 10
JUNCTION 66 91 69 88 71 / 10 10 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
931 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT SETTING UP A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AND
BRINGING SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY...
RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BLAND COUNTY. MSAS ANALYSIS
FROM 01Z/9PM HAD A POCKET OF LOWER LIFTED INDEX VALUES FROM
EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THAT REGION.
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIANA MAY REACH WEST
VIRGINIA BY MORNING. SHORT TERM RUC AND WRF GUIDANCE KEEP BEST
CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
AFTER 3AM.
WITH DEWPOINTS EDGING UP INTO 50S OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EXTENSIVE
CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER TONIGHT
THAN RECENT NIGHTS...HOLDING INTO MID/UPPER 50S.
AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS REBOUND TO UPPER 70S FAR NW
TO L/M 80S THE REST OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO UPPER
SUPPORT WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...
ONLY SLIGHT CHCS OF STORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVERHEAD AND NO TRIGGER. INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURE WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +18C WILL PUSH THE WARMEST CITIES TO
90F. OVERNIGHTS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS
FALLING APART QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...
MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING SOMEWHAT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
SLOWS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TRYING TO DISPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE.
POSSIBLY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK IN ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING
THE 12Z ECMWF TIMING. MOST OF THE SUPPORT FOR THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST SUCH THAT THE FRONT MAY SLOW AND DIE OVER THE
REGION NEXT MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY...
A PASSING OF A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
INSTABILITIES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUT MAINLY OROGRAPHICAL
INFLUENCES...WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN FADE MOVING
EAST AND AS THE SUN SETS. DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES...SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP
THE LIFE CYCLE OF THESE STORMS SHORT...AND A COMPLETE DEMISE AFTER
SUNSET.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR STAYS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ALSO LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHTS ESPCLY
VALLEYS AND WHERE AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PH/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/PC
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...PC/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
120 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE DEEP...COLD UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
LIFTS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...ALLOWING BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SW VA/NW NC AND SHOULD EXIT BY
15Z. A FEW RETURNS WERE NOTED ON RADAR IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND A
SOCIAL MEDIA POST CONFIRMS A FEW SPRINKLES WERE FALLING UNDER
THESE ECHOES. PER THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING...THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP
FALLING UNDER A MID LEVEL 6K FOOT DEPTH MOIST LAYER.
THEREFORE ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO THIS AREA THROUGH UNTIL
15Z...WHEN THE 11Z HRRR ENDS THE PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...PUSHED UP HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY AS
WE ARE STARTING MUCH WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE WARMER
06Z GFS MOS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PROJECTED 12Z TEMPS VERSUS
THE 06Z NAM MOS...AND ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD ITS FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY.
THE NEXT NW FLOW DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SFC MOISTURE RECOVERY REMAINS SCANT AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP INTO THE 40S. THUS...STILL DO NOT REALLY EXPECT
MUCH PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE COMES ON
THE THRESHOLD OF A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN 850MB TEMPS INTO THE +12C
TO +16C RANGE BY MON AFTERNOON...SO WITH STRONGER WAA ADVECTION
AND THE OVERALL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH...EXPECT BETTER CHCS FOR -SHRA WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN
WITH THIS MORNINGS. THROUGH 12Z MON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY TOO STABLE AND COOL FOR ANY -TSRA...HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN. WITH
STRONGER AFTERNOON HEATING THAN SEEN DURING THE WEEKEND COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA...WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THAT MAY BRING SPOTTY
SHOWERS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...LOOKING LIKE
REMNANTS OF STRONGER ACTIVITY OCCURRING WEST OF THE AREA EARLIER IN
THE EVENING. UNSURE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEFT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF OUR AREA...SO
WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
BY TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND
WE WILL ENTER A WEATHER PATTERN OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW
THAT IS TYPICAL OF WHAT WE SEE DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. AS SUCH...
LOOKING FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED
BY DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES TO START AND
THEN SPREADING TO THE PIEDMONTS DURING LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN SPOTTY AT BEST...AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE
ISOLATED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...ADDING SLIGHTLY MORE STABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE GRADUAL BUILD IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
THE WEEK WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A 590DM UPPER
RIDGE CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A REX BLOCK
AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. POPS DECREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH SINKING MOTION AND THE PROFILE BECOMING TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN THE MOST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY END WEEK. 90F LOOKS POSSIBLE IN MOST OF THE
CITIES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. UPPER AIR PATTERN MAY FLATTEN
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FOR THE 18Z TAF VALID PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING DEEP NORTHEAST U.S. UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
ON MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SINCE
MOST STORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 18Z OR LATER MONDAY...NO PRECIP
WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MONDAY...BUT VEER EARLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASES LATE MON-TUE AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLIDE
NE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MON- TUE AHEAD OF THE VERY WARM/MOIST
AIR THAT WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT SEEING A FEW SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH AT LEAST OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MID WEEK. PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG ALSO LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHTS ESPCLY VALLEYS
AND WHERE AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
914 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE DEEP...COLD UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
LIFTS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...ALLOWING BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SW VA/NW NC AND SHOULD EXIT BY
15Z. A FEW RETURNS WERE NOTED ON RADAR IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND A
SOCIAL MEDIA POST CONFIRMS A FEW SPRINKLES WERE FALLING UNDER
THESE ECHOES. PER THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING...THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP
FALLING UNDER A MID LEVEL 6K FOOT DEPTH MOIST LAYER.
THEREFORE ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO THIS AREA THROUGH UNTIL
15Z...WHEN THE 11Z HRRR ENDS THE PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...PUSHED UP HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY AS
WE ARE STARTING MUCH WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE WARMER
06Z GFS MOS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PROJECTED 12Z TEMPS VERSUS
THE 06Z NAM MOS...AND ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD ITS FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY.
THE NEXT NW FLOW DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SFC MOISTURE RECOVERY REMAINS SCANT AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP INTO THE 40S. THUS...STILL DO NOT REALLY EXPECT
MUCH PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE COMES ON
THE THRESHOLD OF A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN 850MB TEMPS INTO THE +12C
TO +16C RANGE BY MON AFTERNOON...SO WITH STRONGER WAA ADVECTION
AND THE OVERALL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH...EXPECT BETTER CHCS FOR -SHRA WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN
WITH THIS MORNINGS. THROUGH 12Z MON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY TOO STABLE AND COOL FOR ANY -TSRA...HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN. WITH
STRONGER AFTERNOON HEATING THAN SEEN DURING THE WEEKEND COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA...WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THAT MAY BRING SPOTTY
SHOWERS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...LOOKING LIKE
REMNANTS OF STRONGER ACTIVITY OCCURRING WEST OF THE AREA EARLIER IN
THE EVENING. UNSURE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEFT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF OUR AREA...SO
WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
BY TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND
WE WILL ENTER A WEATHER PATTERN OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW
THAT IS TYPICAL OF WHAT WE SEE DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. AS SUCH...
LOOKING FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED
BY DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES TO START AND
THEN SPREADING TO THE PIEDMONTS DURING LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN SPOTTY AT BEST...AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE
ISOLATED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...ADDING SLIGHTLY MORE STABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE GRADUAL BUILD IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
THE WEEK WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A 590DM UPPER
RIDGE CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A REX BLOCK
AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. POPS DECREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH SINKING MOTION AND THE PROFILE BECOMING TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN THE MOST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY END WEEK. 90F LOOKS POSSIBLE IN MOST OF THE
CITIES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. UPPER AIR PATTERN MAY FLATTEN
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A SERIES OF NW
FLOW DISTURBANCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEEP NE U.S. UPPER LOW
BRINGING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ON KFCX ACROSS NW NC...BUT THESE
WILL NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS TO THE S-SE BY LATE
MORNING...TAKING THE CLOUDS WITH IT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SKC BY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO BRING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AROUND 12Z MON...SO MAINLY IMPACTING
TAFS AFTER THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR. THE SFC AIR MASS IS BONE DRY...SO NO ISSUES WITH FOG ANYWHERE
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA. FEEL SFC MOISTURE RECOVERY BY 12Z MON
WILL ALSO BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION ANY FOG AT THIS POINT...SO
VSBYS VFR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS WNW-NW 5-7KTS
TODAY...CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLD LOW END GUST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ADVERTISE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NE AROUND 12Z MON
AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASES LATE MON-TUE AS
THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLIDE
NE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MON- TUE AHEAD OF THE VERY WARM/MOIST
AIR THAT WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT SEEING A FEW SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH AT LEAST OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MID WEEK. PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG ALSO LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHTS ESPCLY VALLEYS
AND WHERE AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1244 PM PDT Sun May 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
The Pacific Northwest will remain under the influence of a
persistent area of low pressure through the week. Showers will be
of the scattered variety today and tomorrow. The arrival of a moist
frontal system on Tuesday will bring a better chance for widespread
light rain for eastern Washington and northern Idaho. This low
pressure pattern may break by the end of the week allowing
temperatures to warm closer to average by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to increase high temperatures for the Moses Lake area
and Upper Columbia Basin. Sufficient breaks in the clouds
especially in Moses Lake allowed high temperatures to exceed
forecast values. Radar shows increasing showers around the Tri-
Cities area, Blue Mountains, and Camas Prairie early this
afternoon. As the wave over Oregon moves northeast the HRRR is
showing numerous showers through early this evening over the Blue
Mountains, Lewiston area, Camas Prairie, and Central Panhandle
Mountains with isolated thunderstorms also possible. The
Washington Palouse looks to be on the northwest edge of the best
shower activity. A secondary focus of showers will be along the
East Slopes of the Cascades with Ellensburg and Wenatchee both
reporting a rain shower at noon. Elsewhere isolated to scattered
coverage of showers is still expected late in the afternoon into
this evening. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Scattered showers will increase today especially near the
Cascades and around KPUW/KLWS as a low pressure system tracks across
Oregon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible at KPUW/KLWS but
with low probability of storms moving over these locations just kept
a CB group. CIGS with these showers today should remain VFR.
Showers will decrease after 03z with the loss of daytime heating.
Between 12-18z Monday, boundary layer moisture increases along the
KGEG-KSFF-KCOE with low level upslope such that MVFR stratus may
develop. The NAM model shows this to be a marginal case for a
broken MVFR CIG...but this can not be ruled out. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 47 65 47 63 46 / 30 20 10 30 50 40
Coeur d`Alene 68 46 67 44 62 44 / 30 30 20 30 50 50
Pullman 65 43 65 45 62 44 / 50 50 20 40 50 40
Lewiston 69 49 72 51 67 49 / 50 50 10 40 50 30
Colville 73 46 70 44 67 45 / 20 20 20 20 50 50
Sandpoint 67 44 66 42 61 42 / 20 30 30 20 60 60
Kellogg 67 46 63 45 58 45 / 40 50 30 30 60 50
Moses Lake 72 48 69 49 71 47 / 40 20 10 20 30 20
Wenatchee 63 50 66 51 68 49 / 50 30 20 20 30 20
Omak 67 44 69 46 69 45 / 30 20 10 30 50 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1032 AM PDT Sun May 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
The Pacific Northwest will remain under the influence of a
persistent area of low pressure through the week. Showers will be
of the scattered variety today and tomorrow. The arrival of a moist
frontal system on Tuesday will bring a better chance for widespread
light rain for eastern Washington and northern Idaho. This low
pressure pattern may break by the end of the week allowing
temperatures to warm closer to average by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery as of 8 am this morning showed two lows
of interest...one over Vancouver Island and the other moving into
western Oregon. The low over Vancouver Island is expected to be
nearly stationary today...while the low over western Oregon tracks
east into central Oregon this afternoon. The placement of these
two features will result in the bulk of the showers today over the
Cascades during the late morning and afternoon, and from the Blue
Mountains extending northeast towards the Central Panhandle
Mountains in the afternoon. Precipitation chances in these areas
have been adjusted upward slightly based on latest radar trends
and the HRRR showing quite a bit of shower activity moving into
these areas. Models still show potential for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon mainly over the Blues, Lewiston area,
Palouse, and Central Panhandle Mountains.
Also extensive cloud cover over North Central Washington this
morning and showers expected to move into this area will keep high
temperatures down and forecast values were adjusted accordingly
for places like Wenatchee, Chelan, Winthrop, and Omak. Elsewhere
across the region showers will be more isolated to scattered in
nature with the main adjustment to lower sky cover this morning in
the Sandpoint and Kellogg areas where more extensive cloud cover
will hold off til late morning/early afternoon. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Scattered showers will increase today especially near the
Cascades and around KPUW/KLWS as a low pressure system tracks across
Oregon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible at KPUW/KLWS but
with low probability of storms moving over these locations just kept
a CB group. CIGS with these showers today should remain VFR.
Showers will decrease after 03z with the loss of daytime heating.
Between 12-18z Monday, boundary layer moisture increases along the
KGEG-KSFF-KCOE with low level upslope such that MVFR stratus may
develop. The NAM model shows this to be a marginal case for a
broken MVFR CIG...but this can not be ruled out. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 47 66 48 64 47 / 30 20 30 30 50 50
Coeur d`Alene 68 46 65 45 63 45 / 30 40 40 20 50 60
Pullman 64 45 66 47 63 45 / 50 40 20 40 50 50
Lewiston 69 50 73 52 67 50 / 50 40 10 30 50 50
Colville 73 46 70 45 68 46 / 20 20 50 20 50 50
Sandpoint 67 44 64 43 62 43 / 20 40 50 20 50 70
Kellogg 65 46 62 47 59 46 / 40 50 50 20 60 70
Moses Lake 66 49 72 50 72 48 / 40 20 10 30 30 30
Wenatchee 63 50 69 50 70 50 / 50 10 10 30 40 30
Omak 67 46 71 47 69 46 / 30 10 20 30 40 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
843 AM PDT Sun May 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
The Pacific Northwest will remain under the influence of a
persistent area of low pressure through latter half of next week.
Showers will be of the scattered variety today and tomorrow. The
arrival of a moist frontal system on Tuesday will bring a better
chance for widespread light rain for eastern Washington and
northern Idaho. This low pressure pattern may break by the end of
the week allowing temperatures to warm closer to average by next
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery as of 8 am this morning showed two lows
of interest...one over Vancouver Island and the other moving into
western Oregon. The low over Vancouver Island is expected to be
nearly stationary today...while the low over western Oregon tracks
east into central Oregon this afternoon. The placement of these
two features will result in the bulk of the showers today over the
Cascades during the late morning and afternoon, and from the Blue
Mountains extending northeast towards the Central Panhandle
Mountains in the afternoon. Precipitation chances in these areas
have been adjusted upward slightly based on latest radar trends
and the HRRR showing quite a bit of shower activity moving into
these areas. Models still show potential for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon mainly over the Blues, Lewiston area,
Palouse, and Central Panhandle Mountains.
Also extensive cloud cover over North Central Washington this
morning and showers expected to move into this area will keep high
temperatures down and forecast values were adjusted accordingly
for places like Wenatchee, Chelan, Winthrop, and Omak. Elsewhere
across the region showers will be more isolated to scattered in
nature with the main adjustment to lower sky cover this morning in
the Sandpoint and Kellogg areas where more extensive cloud cover
will hold off til late morning/early afternoon. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Low pressure will continue to reside over the aviation
area for the next 24 hours. A disturbance passing through it will
allow for cloud along with mostly showers at various times of the
day...additionally some more river fog in valleys and some lowlands
is expected this morning as well. Regardless of the precipitation
or the fog VFR conditions should prevail for most of this time
interval. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 47 66 48 64 47 / 30 20 30 30 50 50
Coeur d`Alene 68 46 65 45 63 45 / 30 40 40 20 50 60
Pullman 64 45 66 47 63 45 / 50 40 20 40 50 50
Lewiston 69 50 73 52 67 50 / 50 40 10 30 50 50
Colville 73 46 70 45 68 46 / 20 20 50 20 50 50
Sandpoint 67 44 64 43 62 43 / 20 40 50 20 50 70
Kellogg 65 46 62 47 59 46 / 40 50 50 20 60 70
Moses Lake 66 49 72 50 72 48 / 40 20 10 30 30 30
Wenatchee 63 50 69 50 70 50 / 50 10 10 30 40 30
Omak 67 46 71 47 69 46 / 30 10 20 30 40 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
850 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
THE NEAR TERM FOCUS REMAINS ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN. CURRENTLY...A
LEFT OVER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING NEAR IT. THE MAIN BAND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THEN DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MORE POTENT PART OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE
STALLED OUT PATTERN...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DIMINISHMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP ACROSS THIS REGION.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO THE SOUTH WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH
CURRENTLY IS ALIGNED ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT IN HOW THINGS WILL TRANSPIRE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE ADVECTED THIS NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IOWA AFTER 6Z WITH THE
MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION TRACKING THAT WAY AS WELL. AN ADDITIONAL
BOOST IN LIFT COMES IN BEFORE 12Z AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CATCHES UP TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH THE 28.00Z
RAP & HRRR INCREASE THE 0-3KM MUCAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA...SO THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE STILL PRETTY
DECENT THERE. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS STILL THERE...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND NOT
SO MUCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD AFFECT
THIS PATTERN IS WITH THE MCS THAT HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF OMAHA
THAT COULD KEEP THE STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN NORTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT RAINS IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME OF THIS RAIN TO BE AROUND AT
00Z AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 27.17Z HRRR. SURFACE ANALYSIS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS TWO BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
WEAK WARM FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A MUCH STRONGER WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. ALL THE 27.12Z MODELS BRING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THE NAM SHOWS THIS WAVE PRODUCING UP TO 4 PVU/S OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THE LIFT FROM THE
WAVE SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY SOME AGEOSTROPHIC MOTIONS AS THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE
MAIN WARM FRONT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THE MAIN AREA OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD NOT GET AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NOSE OF THIS COMING INTO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE WILL BE. EXPECT THAT THE NEXT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS EVENING AND
GRADUALLY WORK NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SOUTH OF THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. STILL GOOD
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR THE STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE COMPLEX THAT FORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS CONVECTION...THE WARM FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TUESDAY STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND WARMER AIR STAYING SOUTH
OF THE AREA...SIGNIFICANTLY CUT TEMPERATURES AND CONCERNED THAT
THESE MAY STILL BE TOO WARM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
ONCE THE WAVE MOVES BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START
TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. STILL
EXPECTING SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THESE WILL TRACK IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS THEY COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA OR STAY OFF TO THE WEST. ONCE
THIS PATTERN SETS UP...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE DOWN STREAM RIDGING BLOCKS OFF ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD GET LIFTED NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA IN THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHWEST FLOW EITHER
TUESDAY NIGHT OR MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. HAVE THUS CUT BACK ON
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOWING THE WARM AIR
ARRIVING FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...MAY BE SOMEWHAT
OF BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A LINE OF CONVECTION
FORMS ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER POSSIBLE LULL IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE MODELS
ARE CORRECT ON TIMING...A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE
COMING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND WILL TRY TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WILL ACTUALLY HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BETWEEN 1500 AND
2000 J/KG OF SB CAPE COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY IF THE AREA CAN STAY FREE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE. SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE 0-3 KM LAYER SO IF THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...LOOKS LIKE THE THREATS WOULD BE HAIL
AND WINDS.
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AND TAKE ON A POSITIVE TILT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
TO FLATTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN PROGRESSING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND FINALLY CLEAR THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH THE
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND COLD FRONT WELL OFF
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING WITH WAVES EXPECTED TO STILL BE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND RAIN
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS TO
BUILD IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT DAY...PARTICULARLY AT
RST...AS THE REGION REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WARM
FRONT. THIS SETUP HAS TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WITH A LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD DEVELOPING AS A RESULT. THE LATEST
ROUND OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TRACKING TO THE NORTH WITH DRIZZLE
MORE SO BECOMING THE ISSUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MOVE IN...BUT SOME INDICATIONS ARE SHOWING THAT
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN...THINKING THAT THESE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS COMING
TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
CONFIDENCE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING HAS DECREASED TODAY WITH
THE MAIN BAND OF ACTIVITY NOW EXPECTED TO STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME SUNDAY. NOW EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO BE UNDER
AN INCH BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD PUSH TOTALS UP TO TWO INCHES. NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES
TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS WILL LET TONIGHTS
CONVECTION PLAY OUT AND THEN MAY ADJUSTMENTS IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
TIME AS NEEDED. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TURKEY RIVER
ACROSS CLAYTON COUNTY AS HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS COULD PUSH IT TO
FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1246 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM...SO USED
IT TO ADD SOME MORE TIMING TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE
KARX RADAR IS OVERESTIMATING PRECIPITATION RATES BY 200 TO 300
PERCENT IN BOTH THE LEGACY AND DUAL POLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNT
PRODUCTS...SO CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN USING THESE PRODUCTS. WHILE
OUR RADAR IS OVERESTIMATING...KDMX RADAR PRECIPITATION TOTAL
PRODUCTS DO LOOK REALISTIC. WITH THE COMPLEX MOVING A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO KEEP
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
CONVECTION HAS LIT UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SURFACE/850 MB WARM FRONT AND THE IMPINGEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HRRR DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...AND WILL NUDGE THIS TO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 12-15Z. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPCWRF.
ARWWRF/NAM12 MEANWHILE DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST
THIS MORNING...BUT STILL HANG ON TO ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
EXPECTATION IS FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN IA LATER TONIGHT...WITH AN EAST/NORTHEAST
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REMAIN UNCHANGED...A
WARM FRONT...POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AND CONVECTION INDUCED MCVS/ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
WHERE THESE LIE...MOVE...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...INTERACT...WILL BE
WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADVANCING THE
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY LYING WEST-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN
ILL...NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...ENDING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WI LATE WED
NIGHT. THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO/ACROSS THE FRONT ON
MONDAY...BULLSEYEING THE FORECAST AREA. A 500 MB MCV/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI BY
00Z TUES...AIDING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT.
TUE PROVIDES A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...BEING ENHANCED FROM CONVECTION SPAWNED FROM THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM FRONT INTERACTIONS OVER IA/SOUTHERN MN. THE
FIRST PART OF TUES LOOKS WET AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM LATE
MONDAY MOVES THROUGH. THE LATER 1/2 SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH YET ANOTHER COMPLEX THEN MOVING IN OVERNIGHT
AS CONVECTION SPARKS TO THE WEST.
WED HAS THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HOW
QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT EXPECTED RAIN AREA
IS...AND HOW SOON IT EXITS. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE MAIN PCPN FOCUS
TO THE NORTH - ALTHOUGH ONLY BRIEFLY. A SHORT DRYING PERIOD COULD
SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN BY THU
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FIRING MECHANISM...WITH SOME HELP FROM
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING TO THE WEST.
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO CROP UP BETWEEN THE GFS/EC IN HOW THEY WANT
TO HANDLE THE EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN/EXIT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN THIS RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THE SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE EC CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
CLOSED LOW WOULD DEVELOP...AND SLOW DOWN ITS ALREADY LETHARGIC
STROLL EAST. OBVIOUS IMPLICATIONS IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN EITHER OUTCOME...WILL STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. KLSE WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS...NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE CLOUDS WILL DESCEND DOWN TO
4K FEET. MEANWHILE AT KRST...THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
THROUGH 27.18Z.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OUR SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE
KRST AROUND 26.21Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 26.23Z. ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT SHOULD LAST 2 TO 3 HOURS.
BEHIND THIS WAVE...THE CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AT KLSE AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 27.07Z AND KLSE AROUND 27.09Z. UNSURE OF THE
ENDING TIME...SO JUST LEFT THE SHOWERS GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TIME PERIOD.
WITH THE INSTABILITIES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING THUNDER TO THE TAF SITES...BUT WAS
TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN A TIMING...SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
959 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.UPDATE...THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM...SO USED
IT TO ADD SOME MORE TIMING TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE
KARX RADAR IS OVERESTIMATING PRECIPITATION RATES BY 200 TO 300
PERCENT IN BOTH THE LEGACY AND DUAL POLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNT
PRODUCTS...SO CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN USING THESE PRODUCTS. WHILE
OUR RADAR IS OVERESTIMATING...KDMX RADAR PRECIPITATION TOTAL
PRODUCTS DO LOOK REALISTIC. WITH THE COMPLEX MOVING A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO KEEP
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
CONVECTION HAS LIT UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SURFACE/850 MB WARM FRONT AND THE IMPINGEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HRRR DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...AND WILL NUDGE THIS TO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 12-15Z. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPCWRF.
ARWWRF/NAM12 MEANWHILE DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST
THIS MORNING...BUT STILL HANG ON TO ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
EXPECTATION IS FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN IA LATER TONIGHT...WITH AN EAST/NORTHEAST
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REMAIN UNCHANGED...A
WARM FRONT...POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AND CONVECTION INDUCED MCVS/ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
WHERE THESE LIE...MOVE...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...INTERACT...WILL BE
WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADVANCING THE
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY LYING WEST-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN
ILL...NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...ENDING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WI LATE WED
NIGHT. THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO/ACROSS THE FRONT ON
MONDAY...BULLSEYEING THE FORECAST AREA. A 500 MB MCV/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI BY
00Z TUES...AIDING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT.
TUE PROVIDES A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...BEING ENHANCED FROM CONVECTION SPAWNED FROM THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM FRONT INTERACTIONS OVER IA/SOUTHERN MN. THE
FIRST PART OF TUES LOOKS WET AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM LATE
MONDAY MOVES THROUGH. THE LATER 1/2 SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH YET ANOTHER COMPLEX THEN MOVING IN OVERNIGHT
AS CONVECTION SPARKS TO THE WEST.
WED HAS THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HOW
QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT EXPECTED RAIN AREA
IS...AND HOW SOON IT EXITS. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE MAIN PCPN FOCUS
TO THE NORTH - ALTHOUGH ONLY BRIEFLY. A SHORT DRYING PERIOD COULD
SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN BY THU
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FIRING MECHANISM...WITH SOME HELP FROM
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING TO THE WEST.
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO CROP UP BETWEEN THE GFS/EC IN HOW THEY WANT
TO HANDLE THE EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN/EXIT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN THIS RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THE SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE EC CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
CLOSED LOW WOULD DEVELOP...AND SLOW DOWN ITS ALREADY LETHARGIC
STROLL EAST. OBVIOUS IMPLICATIONS IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN EITHER OUTCOME...WILL STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAFS SITES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER MOVING ACROSS KRST THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH THROUGH 17Z. KLSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO THIS
EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT EDGES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 2KFT BY 01Z AT KRST...THEN FALL TO
AROUND 900 FT AT KRST BY 07Z. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND COULD TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
ACTIVITY REACHING KRST AND KLSE EARLY MONDAY MORNING SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED A THUNDER MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
702 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
CONVECTION HAS LIT UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SURFACE/850 MB WARM FRONT AND THE IMPINGEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HRRR DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...AND WILL NUDGE THIS TO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 12-15Z. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPCWRF.
ARWWRF/NAM12 MEANWHILE DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST
THIS MORNING...BUT STILL HANG ON TO ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
EXPECTATION IS FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN IA LATER TONIGHT...WITH AN EAST/NORTHEAST
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REMAIN UNCHANGED...A
WARM FRONT...POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AND CONVECTION INDUCED MCVS/ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
WHERE THESE LIE...MOVE...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...INTERACT...WILL BE
WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADVANCING THE
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY LYING WEST-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN
ILL...NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...ENDING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WI LATE WED
NIGHT. THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO/ACROSS THE FRONT ON
MONDAY...BULLSEYEING THE FORECAST AREA. A 500 MB MCV/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI BY
00Z TUES...AIDING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT.
TUE PROVIDES A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...BEING ENHANCED FROM CONVECTION SPAWNED FROM THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM FRONT INTERACTIONS OVER IA/SOUTHERN MN. THE
FIRST PART OF TUES LOOKS WET AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM LATE
MONDAY MOVES THROUGH. THE LATER 1/2 SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH YET ANOTHER COMPLEX THEN MOVING IN OVERNIGHT
AS CONVECTION SPARKS TO THE WEST.
WED HAS THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HOW
QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT EXPECTED RAIN AREA
IS...AND HOW SOON IT EXITS. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE MAIN PCPN FOCUS
TO THE NORTH - ALTHOUGH ONLY BRIEFLY. A SHORT DRYING PERIOD COULD
SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN BY THU
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FIRING MECHANISM...WITH SOME HELP FROM
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING TO THE WEST.
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO CROP UP BETWEEN THE GFS/EC IN HOW THEY WANT
TO HANDLE THE EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN/EXIT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN THIS RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THE SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE EC CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
CLOSED LOW WOULD DEVELOP...AND SLOW DOWN ITS ALREADY LETHARGIC
STROLL EAST. OBVIOUS IMPLICATIONS IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN EITHER OUTCOME...WILL STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAFS SITES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER MOVING ACROSS KRST THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH THROUGH 17Z. KLSE SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO THIS
EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT EDGES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 2KFT BY 01Z AT KRST...THEN FALL TO
AROUND 900 FT AT KRST BY 07Z. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND COULD TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
ACTIVITY REACHING KRST AND KLSE EARLY MONDAY MORNING SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED A THUNDER MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
CONVECTION HAS LIT UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SURFACE/850 MB WARM FRONT AND THE IMPINGEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HRRR DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...AND WILL NUDGE THIS TO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 12-15Z. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPCWRF.
ARWWRF/NAM12 MEANWHILE DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST
THIS MORNING...BUT STILL HANG ON TO ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
EXPECTATION IS FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN IA LATER TONIGHT...WITH AN EAST/NORTHEAST
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS REMAIN UNCHANGED...A
WARM FRONT...POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AND CONVECTION INDUCED MCVS/ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
WHERE THESE LIE...MOVE...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...INTERACT...WILL BE
WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADVANCING THE
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY LYING WEST-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN
ILL...NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...ENDING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WI LATE WED
NIGHT. THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO/ACROSS THE FRONT ON
MONDAY...BULLSEYEING THE FORECAST AREA. A 500 MB MCV/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI BY
00Z TUES...AIDING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT.
TUE PROVIDES A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...BEING ENHANCED FROM CONVECTION SPAWNED FROM THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM FRONT INTERACTIONS OVER IA/SOUTHERN MN. THE
FIRST PART OF TUES LOOKS WET AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM LATE
MONDAY MOVES THROUGH. THE LATER 1/2 SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH YET ANOTHER COMPLEX THEN MOVING IN OVERNIGHT
AS CONVECTION SPARKS TO THE WEST.
WED HAS THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HOW
QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT EXPECTED RAIN AREA
IS...AND HOW SOON IT EXITS. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE MAIN PCPN FOCUS
TO THE NORTH - ALTHOUGH ONLY BRIEFLY. A SHORT DRYING PERIOD COULD
SEE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN BY THU
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FIRING MECHANISM...WITH SOME HELP FROM
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING TO THE WEST.
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO CROP UP BETWEEN THE GFS/EC IN HOW THEY WANT
TO HANDLE THE EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN/EXIT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN THIS RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THE SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE EC CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
CLOSED LOW WOULD DEVELOP...AND SLOW DOWN ITS ALREADY LETHARGIC
STROLL EAST. OBVIOUS IMPLICATIONS IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN EITHER OUTCOME...WILL STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IS WITH RAIN CHANCES AND
WHETHER ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN TOWARD DES MOINES
IOWA AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AT RST. WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
REMAINING TO THE SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST WITH RST MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE RAIN THAN
LSE. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL AND SHOULD AT LEAST MAKE IT TO THE DOORSTEP OF
RST. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN COULD MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IT NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
PUT IT INTO THE TAFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
AT 3 PM...A DYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF STORY...MARSHALL...AND JASPER COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
IOWA. MEANWHILE NORTHEAST IOWA AND MOWER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...RECEIVED UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH /KARX RADAR WAS
OVERESTIMATING BY UP TO 300 PERCENT IN SOME LOCATIONS/. THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID
50S IN THESE AREAS WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RECORD COLDEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE. THE RECORD COLD MAXIMUM FOR THE
DATE IS 46 IN 1992 FOR AUSTIN MN...48 IN 1943 IN CHARLES CITY
IA...AND 53 IN 1992 IN DECORAH IA. THE DECORAH RECORD IS THE ONLY
ONE THAT COULD POSSIBLY BE BROKEN OR TIED. MEANWHILE AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94 SAW A BIT OF SUNSHINE AND THEY WERE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE MID 60S.
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE TRACK OF THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THIS EVENING...AND THEN IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
IOWA TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 25.18Z HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
SYSTEM AND IT HAS THIS SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 26.06Z.
WITH THAT SPEED...IT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 26.10Z...AND THEN LINGER ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
RAP...GFS...NAM/WRF...AND ECMWF SHOW THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM NORTHWEST
IOWA TO SOUTHEAST IOWA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATE 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 310K ISENTROPIC
LIFT.
LIKE TODAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE SOME SUN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
SOUTHWEST IOWA. WEAK TO MODERATE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
IOWA. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM SUGGEST THAT A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE DYING SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH OUR AREA
MONDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT. THE NAM/WRF STALLS
THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. THIS MAKES A
LOT OF SENSE IF A LOT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT
AND ITS COLD POOL PREVENTS THIS WARM FRONT MOVING ANY FURTHER
NORTH. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD SYNOPTICALLY FAVOR THAT
THE WARM FRONT WOULD MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THUS THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIES OF MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SO IN EITHER
SCENARIO...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WET. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS UP TO 4KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS UNCERTAIN...THUS KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IS WITH RAIN CHANCES AND
WHETHER ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN TOWARD DES MOINES
IOWA AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AT RST. WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
REMAINING TO THE SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST WITH RST MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE RAIN THAN
LSE. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL AND SHOULD AT LEAST MAKE IT TO THE DOORSTEP OF
RST. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN COULD MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IT NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
PUT IT INTO THE TAFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1049 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY NUMEROUS OVER THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING FOR STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTION. THAT AREA IS AHEAD OF
A SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG THE EASTERN WYOMING BORDER.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WITH
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG/. MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING MAY BE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CIRRUS.
ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL THETA RIDGE AXIS BEING EAST OF THE CWA...
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE. IN A RECENT UPDATE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND CLOUDS. WILL TAKE A LOOK SOON AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CONVECTION
JUST STARTING TO INITIATE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVELY QUIET RIGHT NOW WITH ONLY SOME VIRGA SHOWING UP ON
RADAR. SURFACE BOUNDARY/DRYLINE FEATURE JUST WENT THROUGH KIMBALL
NEBRASKA INDICATIVE OF THE SURFACE DEWPOINT DROP BY 7C IN ONLY A
HALF AN HOUR AND WINDS SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED NEAR KIMBALL AND EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO NEAR GUERNSEY
WYOMING...AND FURTHER NORTH TO AROUND THE DOUGLAS AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY. PRETTY GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...THERE IS CONCERN FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM LUSK WYOMING TO SIDNEY NEBRASKA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LI/S DOWN TO AROUND -7C
AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS WITH 30 TO
50 KNOTS OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND EVALUATE THE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A SEVERE TSTORM OR TORNADO
WATCH AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONGER TSTORMS
WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS A BIT LESS TONIGHT...BUT ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO LOCATIONS WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME RAINFALL
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS WILL SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT TAKES A VERY SIMILAR
TRACK COMPARED TO SUNDAY...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
EVEN LESS WITH DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
TUESDAY...SIMILAR SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROTATING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS FROM CENTRAL WYOMING SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN COLORADO...ACTING AS
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WEDNESDAY...INITIAL NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ROTATES
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES AND WITH ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
THURSDAY...SLOW MOVING STACKED UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS WYOMING
PRODUCING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER OUR COUNTIES. OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE UPPER CIRCULATION
FOR SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE FROM WHEATLAND SOUTH TO COLORADO.
FRIDAY...WINDY AND COOL DAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
ROTATES TO OUR EAST...PRODUCING SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE...WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS PRODUCING A RAIN SHADOW EFFECT FURTHER SOUTH.
SATURDAY...LESSER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT PREVAILS...AND LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WANES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
VFR FOR AIRPORTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE. A DRY LINE LAYS ALONG THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. EAST
OF THE LINE...COULD SEE LOWER CEILINGS TOWARDS 10Z WITH MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. WENT MVFR WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FEET AT
KCDR AND KAIA. SREF AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. THEY ALSO SHOW
LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE KSNY AREA TOWARDS 12Z.
FOR NOW...KEPT THEM VFR AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE 12Z
TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013
A SURFACE BOUNDARY SEPARATING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST AND
DRY STABLE AIR TO THE WEST WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING TO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINLY CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO
FAR EASTERN WYOMING BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO GREEN
FUELS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WEILAND
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
325 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM WEST OF FORT SMITH UP THROUGH HARRISON.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF ARKANSAS. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IF NOT
A DEGREE WARMER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OUT WEST. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERATE CONVECTION
EAST OF A SURFACE LOW AND DRY LINE SETUP STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF
TEXAS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...THESE IMPULSES AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL DO THE SAME. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST IN SE ARKANSAS TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS...BUT BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS WED EVENING AS ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME ONGOING CONVECTION PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NWRN HALF OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS WHEN THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE SHORT TERM WILL EXIST. CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COOLED AIR MAY DISRUPT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THU
AFTERNOON...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SURFACE
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THU NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MCS
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NW ARKANSAS AND SRN MISSOURI LATE THU
NIGHT AS A RESULT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH ONLY AFTERNOON CU FOR CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WED THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TO START THE EXTENDED...THE BROAD UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE SE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALSO DRIFTS TO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER SW FLOW WILL BRING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO AR AND A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF
AR. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO AR AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY MOVES OVER AR.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE AR AND LA STATE LINE...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE TN VALLEY. ON MONDAY...DRIER AND A BIT
COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST
ON HOW FAR THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES THE COLD FRONT. IT IS THE END OF
MAY AND A BIT UNUSUALLY TO HAVE A COLD FRONT PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...THEN COOL A BIT IF THE
AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 87 68 86 69 / 10 10 10 30
CAMDEN AR 88 69 87 70 / 10 10 20 20
HARRISON AR 84 67 83 67 / 10 10 20 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 69 85 70 / 10 10 20 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 70 87 70 / 10 10 10 30
MONTICELLO AR 89 70 86 70 / 10 10 20 20
MOUNT IDA AR 85 68 84 70 / 10 10 20 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 86 68 85 68 / 20 10 20 40
NEWPORT AR 88 69 86 70 / 10 10 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 88 69 86 70 / 10 10 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 87 69 85 69 / 10 10 20 30
SEARCY AR 87 69 86 69 / 10 10 10 30
STUTTGART AR 88 70 86 70 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...59
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 PM PDT MON MAY 27 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:47 PM PDT MONDAY...IT WAS A COOL AND CLOUDY
MEMORIAL DAY FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS A WEAK LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN TOTALS WERE SPOTTY
AND LIGHT WITH MOST SITES REPORTING FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. JUST SENT OUT A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SHOWING
SOME OF THE TOTALS ACROSS THE DISTRICT INCLUDING SOME OF THE
REMOTE GAGES UP IN THE HILLS. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES STILL
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF SHORE AND VARIOUS AMSU/SSMI SATELLITE
SCANS SHOW TONGUE OF MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF 40N...WITH TPW VALUES
WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE IN ACCORDANCE WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND KSTS REPORTING -RA WITH LAST OBSERVATION.
INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION RAP MODEL KEEPS SPITTING OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT QPF NUMBERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG
THE COAST. UPSHOT IS THAT CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SEE NO NEED TO
ALTER THAT FORECAST.
BACK TO WORK TUESDAY THE REGION WILL BE POST-FRONTAL WITH BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS. HIGHS AGAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S NEAR THE
COAST AND BAYS WITH ONLY LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. EXPECTING MORE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS COMPARED TO TODAY.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS ANOTHER SIMILAR LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE RAIN/NO-RAIN LINE TO FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. FORECAST HAS THIS ACCOUNTED FOR AND ANY
RAIN THAT FALLS ON WEDS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY WEDS. SO ONLY REAL
PRECIP THREAT FOR WEDS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF SANTA ROSA WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
ZONAL FLOW WITH ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT TEMPS
WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TO RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE NORMALS.
BIG WEATHER STORY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BE A NOTED
WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE ROCKIES AMPLIFYING THE 500
MB PATTERN. A 590 DM HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ASSOCIATED
850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND 22 CELSIUS BY SATURDAY OVER THE BAY AREA.
SO EXPECT RAPID WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EVEN AT THE BEACHES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRADDLES THE
COAST WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
IN THE HILLS. ECMWF MOS DATA IS GETTING OMINOUSLY CLOSE TO SOME
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BY SATURDAY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS OR
AT THE VERY LEAST LOTS OF 90S. SHOULD THE PATTERN DEVELOP AS
EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BECOME ELEVATED ESPECIALLY IN
LIGHT OF VERY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE.
MODELS SPIN UP A WEAK CIRCULATION BY SUNDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY
INDUCE A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND COASTAL COOLING...FOLLOWED BY
INLAND COOLING NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MOIST FLOW OFF EPAC CONTINUES
SUPPORTED BY AREA DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OVER 1 INCH (200% OF NORMAL)...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
MORE CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION.
AREA RAIN GAUGES NOW SHOW UPWARDS OF 0.30 INCHES AT POINT REYES AND
0.17 INCHES AT THE SANTA ROSA RAWS...AND 0.02 INCHES IN SAN FRANCISCO.
KMUX RADAR SHOWS STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...WET RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. IT`S A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR. PARTIAL CLEARING PROBABLE TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFO-SAC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING TO 4 MB. GUSTY WEST WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...WET WEATHER TONIGHT. CIGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
MVFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CONFIDENCE. PLENTY OF MOIST AIR
ROLLING OFF THE OCEAN LEADING TO MVFR CIGS AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS.
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
506 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE BACK ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PARTS OF THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE MODELS FROM NCEP HAVE
AGAIN PREVAILED WHEN COMPARED TO YDYS 00Z/27 CYCLE OF THE
RGEM/GGEM/ECMWF/UKMET. A DECENT SLUG OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TODAY
WITH A N/S BAND OF BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SWEEPING EWD WITHIN
THE GROWING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS PA/NJ. THE 00Z/28 SPC WRF IS TO MY
OVERALL LIKING AND IS MATCHED PRETTY WELL BY THE RAP WHICH DOESNT
GIVE ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TIL VERY LATE THIS AFTN..IF AT
ALL...IN SE PA/MD. SO NO THUNDER IN THE FCST TODAY. THE RAP IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SPCWRF WITH ITS RAIN AREA AND AM OPTING
FOR THE MORE EXPANSIVE SPC WRF DEPICTION OF RAINFALL AND A BAND OF
MDT TO HEAVY EVEN DOWN TO PHL. 06Z HPCQPF WAS A LITTLE LESS THAN
WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN IN PHL...BUT IF THE 700 MB SPEED MAX IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE MASON DIXON LINE TODAY...THEN THE HEAVIER
QPF WILL REMAIN UP NORTH....ALONG AND N OF RTE 80.
THE DRIVERS FOR TODAYS RFALL ARE THE RRQ OF A NW FLOW 250 MB 80-90
KT SPEED MAX E OF CAPE COD AND THE INSTABILITY BURST ASSOCIATED
AND DRIVEN BY A 35-40 KT WLY 700MB SPEED MAX (MOISTURE TRANSPORT)
MOVING ACROSS PA WITH SW FLOW AT 850 MB AIDING LIFT. WHILE THE
MOST PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER SHOULD
OCCUR NJ/PA NEAR THE AXIS OF THE 700MB JET SPEED MAX...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A CONVECTIVE THUNDER OUTBREAK NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE
LATE THIS AFTN WHERE IT WILL HEAT UP S OF THE GENERAL SHOWER AREA...
PRODUCING ABOUT 600J OF ML CAPE.
REGARDING MOISTURE: THE PWAT AT 03Z/28 (11PM MONDAY) WAS ABOUT
ONE HALF INCH AND IS MODELED TO INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE
THIS TUE AFTN!
TEMPS WINDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE BLENDED 00Z/28 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE AND
HIGH TEMPS COULD BE 5 DEGREES TOO WARM IN NNJ DEPENDING ON WHETHER
ITS RAINING MUCH OF THE TIME BETWEEN 11 AM AND 5 PM. I MAY RUN THESE
NNJ TEMPS 5 DEGREES COOLER IN MY 630 AM ESTF UPDATE.
THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL EVOLVE NEWD AND BY 21Z LIE ROUGHLY FROM KDMH
TO KMIV. STRONGER SLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WARMFRONT WHERE IT HEATS UP.
LATEST COSPA...RAP-RUC AS WELL AS 00Z/28 SPC WRF WERE USED TO
ASSIST IN THE FCST AND TIMING!
06Z/28 HPC QPF WAS ALSO APPLIED...ADJUSTED A BIT SWD IN E PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE
ON TONIGHTS SHOWER SCENARIO IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO 00Z/29. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED
TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR A GROUP OF TSTMS...POSSIBLY A SEWD MOVING
CONVECTIVE BAND CROSSING CHES BAY EARLY THIS TUE EVENING AND THEN
ANOTHER EWD MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE 35C KI ACROSS NNJ
AROUND 06Z? THIS LATTER MIGHT BE THE SRN EDGE OF DIMINISHING NEAR
SVR DRIVING EWD FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS DISCUSSED IN THE
0602Z/28 SWODY1.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS ARE 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/28 NCEP MOS MET/MAV
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS AND A SFC HIGH WHICH WILL RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BRING WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST HEAT
WAVE OF THE SEASON MAY RESULT...BUT NO HEAT RELATED FLAGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED WITH THE OVERNIGHT FCST.
WED...THE SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT FEATURE FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTH/EAST/ A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL AFFECT
THE AREA ACROSS NRN NJ EARLY AND ALSO A FEW SCT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN AREAS. ELSEWHERE...IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
COOLER TEMPS AT THE BEACHES. WED NIGHT...DRY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. READINGS WILL HOLD NEAR
70 IN METRO PHILADELPHIA.
THU THRU SAT...ESSENTIALLY A DRY FCST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SAT. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NRN MOST PART OF NJ THU EVENING WITH ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS IN THE FCST. INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S THU AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S.
SUN AND MON...THE HEAT WAVE BREAKS LATER SUN AFTER A DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS A
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM CROSSES SRN CANADA AND SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SUNDAY. HIGHS MON WILL MOSTLY BE IN UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PRIOR TO 12Z TUE...VFR CIGS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 5000 FT SE PA
AND DE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. LIGHT WIND.
AFTER 12Z TUE...SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD KPHL NORTH BY 15Z WITH
MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER 17Z....POSSIBLY SPOTTY IFR CIGS
BY 00Z/29. LIGHT WIND TENDING E OR SE THIS AFTN EXCEPT BECOMING
SLY KMIV SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG KRDG KABE KTTN WITH MVFR CONDS
ELSEWHERE IN SC/FOG/HAZE. CHANCE OF A SHOWER. SMALL CHANCE OF A TSTM.
WIND GRADUALLY VEERING FROM SSE TO SW DURING THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FAR NORTH EARLY AND THEN A CHC
FOR AN AFTERNOON TSTM N/W. VFR ELSEWHERE.
THU THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF TODAY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE UPWARDS OF 4 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON OFF DELAWARE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS ON THE OUTER ATLC WATERS OFF DELAWARE MIGHT GUST TO NEAR 25 KT
LATE IN THE DAY. AN SCA WAS ISSUED ONLY WHERE CONFIDENCE REASONABLY
HIGH THAT 5 FT SEAS WILL OCCUR. CONFIDENCE FOR MAX GUSTS REACHING
25 KT IS LESS THAN OUR SEEING 5 FT SEAS OFF DELAWARE TONIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE NJ WATERS MAY NEED AN SCA TONIGHT OR WED BUT
FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WED-FRI...THEN INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS THIS WEEKEND WITH SCA POSSIBLE.
AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEVELOPING FOG BANKS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY...SITTING ON THE THRESHOLD OF LOW OR MDT RISK FOR
THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IN NJ THIS AFTN. WILL DO
A FINAL CHECK OF THE 06Z GFS WIND FCST FOR 18Z TODAY AND ISSUE THE
SRF AT 550 AM EDT. CERTAINLY STARTS OUT AS A LOW RISK WITH VIRTUALLY
NO WIND OR SWELL TO START THE DAY. DELAWARE WILL BE A LOW RISK
TODAY.
IF THE SFC WIND SPEED REMAINS BELOW 15 KT ALONG THE NJ COAST THIS
AFTN...THAT WOULD FAVOR A LOWER RISK.
NO MATTER...EVEN AT LOW RISK...IF YOU DONT SWIM UNDER THE WATCHFUL
EYE OF A LIFE GUARD...YOU COULD BE ASKING FOR TROUBLE. RIP CURRENTS
CAN FORM ANYTIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TIDE CYCLE.
THIS SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND AS IT HEATS UP LATER IN THE WEEK! ALSO
THE SSTS ARE COLD...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SWIM WITH SAFETY IN MIND!
THE DAILY OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY
LOW RISK.
TODAY...LOW OR MDT IN NJ AND LOW DE. DEPENDS ON THE WIND SPEED AND
SWELL GROUP. 2FT 9SEC OR 4FT 6 SEC WILL GIVE MDT IF THE ONSHORE
WIND REACHES 16 KT. IF THE SWELL SIZE OF EITHER GROUP OR THE WIND
IS LESS THAN 16 KT...THE RISK DROPS TO LOW.
WEDNESDAY...1FT 9 SEC OR 4 FT 6 SEC WIND 18013 LOW RISK
THURSDAY...1 FT 8 SEC OR 4 FT 6 SEC WIND 18011 LOW RISK
FRIDAY...1 FT 9 SEC OR 3 FT 5 SEC WIND 18011 LOW RISK
SATURDAY...1FT 9 SEC OR 4FT 5 SEC WIND 21013. LOW RISK
RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 2-8.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ453>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 505
SHORT TERM...DRAG 505
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 505
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 505
RIP CURRENTS...505
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE BACK ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PARTS OF THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAA CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT AND ALSO
IN THE RRQ OF THE 250MB NW FLOW 80-90KT SPEED MAX ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER
LONG ISLAND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN EARLY THIS PAST MONDAY MORNING WHEN SPOTTY FROST APPEARED
TO HAVE OCCURRED FROM THE POCONOS TO SUSSEX AND WARREN COUNTIES IN
NJ.
TODAY-TUESDAY...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE MODELS FROM NCEP
HAVE AGAIN PREVAILED WHEN COMPARED TO YDYS 00Z/27 CYCLE OF THE
RGEM/GGEM/ECMWF/UKMET. A DECENT SLUG OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TODAY
WITH A N/S BAND OF BRIEFLY MDT TO BRIEFLY RAIN SWEEPING EWD WITHIN
THE GROWING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS PA/NJ. THE 00Z/28 SPC WRF IS TO MY
OVERALL LIKING AND IS MATCHED PRETTY WELL BY THE RAP WHICH DOESNT
GIVE ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TIL VERY LATE THIS AFTN..IF AT
ALL...IN SE PA/MD. SO NO THUNDER IN THE FCST TODAY. THE RAP IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SPCWRF AND I AM OPTING FOR THE MORE EXPANSIVE
SPC WRF DEPICTION OF RAINFALL AND A BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY EVEN DOWN TO
PHL. 06Z HPC QPF IS A LITTLE LESS THAN WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN IN
PHL...BUT IF THE 700 MB SPEED MAX IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE MASON
DIXON LINE TODAY...THEN THE HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN UP NORTH.
THE DRIVERS FOR TODAYS RFALL ARE THE RRQ OF THE PGH 1 MENTIONED
NW FLOW UPPER LVL JET SPEED MAX MOVING E OF CAPE COD AND THE
INSTABILITY BURST DRIVEN ASSOCIATED BY A 35-40 KT WLY 700MB SPEED
MAX (MOISTURE TRANSPORT) MOVING ACROSS PA WITH SW FLOW AT 850 MB
AIDING LIFT. WHILE THE MOST PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITHOUT THUNDER SHOULD OCCUR NJ/PA NEAR THE AXIS OF THE 700MB JET
SPEED MAX...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A CONVECTIVE THUNDER OUTBREAK NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS AFTN WHERE IT WILL HEAT UP S OF THE
GENERAL SHOWER AREA...PRODUCING ABOUT 600J OF ML CAPE.
REGARDING MOISTURE: THE PWAT AT 03Z/28 (11PM MONDAY) WAS ABOUT
ONE HALF INCH AND IS MODELED TO INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE
THIS TUE AFTN!
TEMPS WINDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE BLENDED 00Z/28 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE AND
HIGH TEMPS COULD BE 5 DEGREES TOO WARM IN NNJ DEPENDING ON WHETHER
ITS RAINING MUCH OF THE TIME BETWEEN 11 AM AND 5 PM. I MAY RUN THESE
TEMPS COOLER IN MY 630 AM ESTF UPDATE.
THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL EVOLVE NEWD AND BY 21Z LIE ROUGHLY FROM KDMH
TO KMIV. STRONGER SLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WARMFRONT WHERE IT HEATS UP.
LATEST COSPA...RAP-RUC AS WELL AS 00Z/28 SPC WRF WERE USED TO
ASSIST IN THE FCST AND TIMING!
06Z/28 HPC QPF WAS ALSO APPLIED...ADJUSTED A BIT SWD IN E PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE
ON TONIGHTS SCENARIO IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD
BE PRIOR TO 00Z/29. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED TO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR A GROUP OF TSTMS...POSSIBLY A SEWD MOVING CONVECTIVE BAND
CROSSING CHES BAY EARLY THIS TUE EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER EWD MOVING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE 35C KI ACROSS NNJ AROUND 06Z? THIS LATTER
MIGHT BE THE SRN EDGE OF DIMINISHING NEAR SVR DRIVING EWD FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS DISCUSSED IN THE 0602Z SWODY1.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS ARE 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/28 NCEP MOS MET/MAV
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS AND A SFC HIGH WHICH WILL RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BRING WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST HEAT
WAVE OF THE SEASON MAY RESULT...BUT NO HEAT RELATED FLAGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED WITH THE OVERNIGHT FCST.
WED...THE SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT FEATURE FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTH/EAST/ A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL AFFECT
THE AREA ACROSS NRN NJ EARLY AND ALSO A FEW SCT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN AREAS. ELSEWHERE...IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
COOLER TEMPS AT THE BEACHES. WED NIGHT...DRY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. READINGS WILL HOLD NEAR
70 IN METRO PHILADELPHIA.
THU THRU SAT...ESSENTIALLY A DRY FCST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SAT. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NRN MOST PART OF NJ THU EVENING WITH ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS IN THE FCST. INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S THU AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S.
SUN AND MON...THE HEAT WAVE BREAKS LATER SUN AFTER A DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS A
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM CROSSES SRN CANADA AND SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SUNDAY. HIGHS MON WILL MOSTLY BE IN UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PRIOR TO 12Z TUE...VFR CIGS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 5000 FT SE PA
AND DE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR 12Z. LIGHT WIND.
AFTER 12Z TUE...SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD KPHL NORTH BY 16Z WITH
MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER 17Z....POSSIBLY SPOTTY IFR
CIGS BY 00Z/29. LIGHT WIND TENDING E OR SE THIS AFTN EXCEPT BECOMING
SLY KMIV SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG KRDG KABE KTTN WITH MVFR CONDS
ELSEWHERE IN SC/FOG/HAZE. CHANCE OF A SHOWER. SMALL CHANCE OF A TSTM.
WIND GRADUALLY VEERING FROM SSE TO SW DURING THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FAR NORTH EARLY AND THEN A CHC
FOR AN AFTERNOON TSTM N/W. VFR ELSWEHERE.
THU THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF TODAY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE UPWARDS OF 4 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON OFF DE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS ON
THE OUTER ATLC WATERS OFF DE MIGHT GUST TO NEAR 25 KT LATE IN THE
DAY. AN SCA WAS ISSUED ONLY WHERE CONFIDENCE REASONABLY HIGH THAT 5
FT SEAS WILL OCCUR. CONFIDENCE FOR MAX GUSTS REACHING 25 KT IS LESS
THAN OUR SEEING 5 FT SEAS OFF DE TONIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE NJ WATERS MAY NEED AN SCA TONIGHT OR WED BUT
FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WED-FRI...THEN INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS THIS WEEKEND WITH SCA POSSIBLE.
AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEVELOPING FOG BANKS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
PROBABLY GOING LOW RISK TODAY. THE RISK MAY SHIFT UP TO MDT IN NJ
IF THE SE WIND CAN INCREASE PAST 15 KT THIS AFTN.
WILL OFFER AN OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AT 5AM.
RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 2-8.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ453>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
201 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH WILL GOVERN OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WAA CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT AND ALSO
IN THE RRQ OF THE 250MB NW FLOW 80-90KT SPEED MAX ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER
LONG ISLAND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN EARLY THIS PAST MONDAY MORNING WHEN SPOTTY FROST APPEARED
TO HAVE OCCURRED FROM THE POCONOS TO SUSSEX AND WARREN COUNTIES IN
NJ.
TODAY-TUESDAY...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE MODELS FROM NCEP
HAVE AGAIN PREVAILED WHEN COMPARED TO YDYS 00Z/27 CYCLE OF THE
RGEM/GGEM/ECMWF/UKMET. A DECENT SLUG OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TODAY
WITH A N/S BAND OF BRIEFLY MDT TO BRIEFLY RAIN SWEEPING EWD WITHIN
THE GROWING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS PA/NJ. THE 00Z/28 SPC WRF IS TO MY
OVERALL LIKING AND IS MATCHED PRETTY WELL BY THE RAP WHICH DOESNT
GIVE ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TIL VERY LATE THIS AFTN..IF AT
ALL...IN SE PA/MD.
THE DRIVERS ARE THE RRQ OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NW FLOW UPPER LVL
JET SPEED MAX MOVING E OF CAPE COD AND THE INSTABILITY BURST DRIVEN
ASSOCIATED WITH AND DRIVEN BY A 35-40 KT WLY 700MB SPEED MAX
(MOISTURE TRANSPORT) MOVING ACROSS PA WITH SW FLOW AT 850 MB
AIDING LIFT. THE MOST PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITHOUT
THUNDER SHOULD OCCUR NJ/PA NEAR THE AXIS OF THE 700MB JET SPEED
MAX HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A CONVECTIVE THUNDER OUTBREAK
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS AFTN WHERE IT WILL HEAT UP
WITH ABOUT 600J OF ML CAPE.
REGARDING MOISTURE: THE PWAT AT 03Z/28 (11PM MONDAY) WAS ABOUT
ONE HALF INCH AND IS MODELED TO INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE
THIS TUE AFTN!
TEMPS WINDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE BLENDED 00Z/28 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE AND
HIGH TEMPS COULD BE ERRONEOUS BY 5 DEGREES DEPENDING ON WHETHER
ITS RAINING MUCH OF THE TIME BETWEEN 11 AM AND 5 PM.
THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL EVOLVE NEWD AND BY 21Z LIE ROUGHLY FROM
KDMH TO KMIV.
LATEST COSPA...RAP-RUC AS WELL AS 00Z/28 SPC WRF ARE USED TO
ASSIST IN THE FCST AND TIMING!
2800 AND 2806Z HPC QPF WILL ALSO BE UTILIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 06Z BUT MY
CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHTS SCENARIO IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL SHOULD BE PRIOR TO 00Z/29. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE WE`LL
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR A GROUP OF TSTMS...POSSIBLY A SEWD MOVING
CONVECTIVE BAND CROSSING CHES BAY EARLY THIS TUE EVENING AND THEN
ANOTHER EWD MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE 35C KI ACROSS NNJ
AROUND 06Z?
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS ARE 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/28 NCEP MOS MET/MAV
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
REACH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.
AS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECT TO FOLLOW. WE ARE ANTICIPATING
SOME CLEARING FOR WEDNESDAY. AS CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THERE MAY BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND AT POINTS TO THE
NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON CONTINUES TO
EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. WARM
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA, MAINLY IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE, ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WARMEST OF THE AIR WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
NEAR +18C ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR REGION IN THE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD.
DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH DAY EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND AT AREAS
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WHERE TEMPERATURES REACH THE 90 DEGREE
NEIGHBORHOOD, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 90 TO
95 DEGREE RANGE BASED ON THE CURRENT DEW POINT FORECASTS.
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S DUE TO THE
INCREASED HUMIDITY. HIGHLY URBANIZED LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ANY
LOWER THAN THE LOWER 70S.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED ON THURSDAY,
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE PASSING OVER OUR REGION. AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY,
WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH, IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION ON MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT BRINGS AN END TO THE HEAT WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PRIOR TO 12Z TUE...VFR CIGS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 5000 FT SE PA
AND DE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR 12Z. LIGHT WIND.
AFTER 12Z TUE...SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD KPHL NORTH BY 16Z WITH
MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER 17Z....POSSIBLY SPOTTY IFR
CIGS BY 00Z/29. LIGHT WIND TENDING E OR SE THIS AFTN EXCEPT BECOMING
SLY KMIV SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG KRDG KABE KTTN WITH MVFR CONDS
ELSEWHERE IN SC/FOG/HAZE. CHANCE OF A SHOWER. SMALL CHANCE OF A TSTM.
WIND GRADUALLY VEERING FROM SSE TO SW DURING THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES LOWERING
TO MVFR AS A WARM FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION.
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR WITH
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FROM
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HAZE AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF TODAY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE UPWARDS OF 4 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS ON THE
OUTER ATLC WATERS MIGHT GUST TO NEAR 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY. AN SCA
MAY BE NEEDED IN OUR 330 AM FCST FOR THE DE AND SNJ ATLC WATERS...
MAINLY FOR SEAS.
IF AN SCA IS ISSUED FOR THE S NJ AND DE WATERS...IT WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR G20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
CONFIDENCE FOR AN SCA IN THOSE WATERS IS ROUGHLY 70 PCT.
OUTLOOK...
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD NEAR 5 FEET ON SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEVELOPING FOG BANKS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
HAVE A MDT FCST FOR NJ TODAY. WILL CHECK THIS AGAIN AT 5AM AND
OFFER AN OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 2-8.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/IOVINO 2A
NEAR TERM...DRAG 2A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 2A
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 2A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 2A
RIP CURRENTS...2A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
340 AM EDT Tue May 28 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Yet another fair, hot, and dry day is in store for the Tri-State
region today, with high temps once again expected to reach the
middle 80s near the coast to the lower 90s further inland. Also,
the sea breeze is expected to begin a bit earlier today, as it
will be aided by increasing low level southeasterly winds, as the
ridge of High Pressure off of the Mid-Atlantic continues to slide
further to our east. Although deep layer moisture will still be
quite limited, an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out this afternoon, especially across far western portions of the
CWA, where most of the Hi-Res WRF runs are indicating some
convective development. However, given that PWATs are still only
expected to be around 1 inch, our confidence was not high enough
to include explicit PoPs at this time, but would not be surprised
if the day shift modifies this forecast slightly. For tonight,
with slightly increasing low level moisture, the chances for fog
or low clouds will be slightly higher than this morning, but
probabilities are still not high enough to include any fog in the
grids. However, this will change for Wednesday Night and Thursday
Morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...
High pressure will remain centered off the Southeast U.S. coast
and ridge westward across Dixie with the axis mainly north of the
forecast area through this period. We will continue to see a very
gradual moistening trend with isolated sea breeze showers or
thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Daytime temps have been
running above guidance and will remain a bit above seasonal
levels. Look for highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the
mid 60 to around 70 inland and in the lower to mid 70s at the
coast.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
A broad area of high pressure over the Southeast US and Atlantic
Ocean will remain in place from Thursday through the weekend,
resulting in easterly flow and lower than normal chances of
precipitation. The best chance at seeing isolated thunderstorms will
be in the eastern part of our CWA during this period, where the
Atlantic sea breeze may spark some convection each afternoon and
early evening as it collides with the Gulf sea breeze. Seasonable
temperatures should occur throughout the period, with highs
generally in the low 90s and lows in the mid-upper 60s. Looking
ahead to next week, a disturbance in the southern Gulf and Caribbean
is being shown by the GFS, but it is far too early to determine the
track or intensity of this possible feature.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 12 UTC Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
the terminals for the overnight and daytime hours today, except for
the potential of MVFR Cigs at VLD, TLH, and ECP. Confidence for this
occurrence is not very high as the HRRR and NARRE are not in their
usual good agreement, but the MAV guidance does support a brief
period of 2500ft Cigs. The models are, however, in very good
agreement about fog potential, and they have backed off
substantially from this time last night to a high confidence of
VFR as the air mass is remaining quite dry. Chances for MVFR to
potentially IFR conditions may be a bit higher for late tonight
and Wednesday morning, so may hint in the MVFR direction.
&&
.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will remain along or north of the Gulf
Coast through the period with a prolonged period of easterly flow
continuing. As is typical in this flow regime, there will be periods
where wind speeds surge to cautionary or marginal advisory levels,
mainly during the overnight and morning hours each day.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
With low level moisture gradually on the increase, no Red Flag
concerns are expected for the next several days. However, with
relatively high mixing heights and increasing transport wind speeds,
dispersions are expected to be high across parts of the Tri-State
area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Overall chances for and coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
be low through the weekend with no impacts to area rivers expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 92 68 91 70 92 / 0 0 10 10 20
Panama City 85 73 88 73 89 / 10 0 20 10 10
Dothan 91 65 92 68 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
Albany 91 65 92 68 92 / 0 0 10 10 10
Valdosta 92 65 92 67 91 / 0 0 20 10 20
Cross City 91 67 91 67 92 / 10 10 30 10 20
Apalachicola 84 72 87 73 88 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Gould
Long Term...Lahr/Godsey
Rest of Discussion...Wool
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013/
UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
41
PREVIOUS...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RUC 50H FIELD OVERLAID ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ESTABLISHING A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. A MODIFIED 12Z FFC SOUNDING AND SUPPORTED BY LATEST SPC
MESO ANALYSIS INDICATE AFTERNOON CAPES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 500-600
J/KG WITH A MODERATE MID LEVEL CAP. WEAK INSTABILITY... LACK OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING SUGGEST THE GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE NORTH GA WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE TUE-WED IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. AS A RESULT... EXPECT
SLIGHTLY LESS OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
GA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND NIL CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS... LEANED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY... ALTHO
EXPECT THE SSE FLOW TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS NORTHWARD FROM
ATLANTIC AND GULF TOWARD MORNING. THEN WENT WITH A MAV AND MET BLEND
FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS AS A WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN RESPONSE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
39
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THINGS CONTINUE TO
LOOK LIKE A MORE SUMMER- LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE CWA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE BECOME
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW TO THE CWA THEREBY INCREASING HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE H5 RIDGE
HOLDING FIRM OVER THE CWA...THIS RISK SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO NORTH GA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
01/17
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG
AT AHN/MCN BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 6SM BR. SE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD BELOW 5K THIS MORNING...5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON...BACK BELOW
5KT TONIGHT ALL BUT ATL. MAY SEE FEW AFTERNOON CU 5-7KFT BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ANY CLOUDS WILL BE MID-LEVEL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 60 87 63 / 0 0 5 10
ATLANTA 86 65 86 66 / 0 0 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 83 57 82 58 / 5 5 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 87 62 88 63 / 0 0 5 10
COLUMBUS 88 64 89 67 / 0 0 5 10
GAINESVILLE 87 61 85 63 / 5 5 5 10
MACON 88 62 89 64 / 0 0 5 10
ROME 88 62 90 62 / 5 5 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 86 59 86 62 / 0 0 5 10
VIDALIA 89 64 88 66 / 0 0 5 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
321 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WARM FRONT AT 07Z HAD LIFTED NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH
S/SE WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ADVECTING LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
THE CWA. IMPRESSIVE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING INTO NE MO
HAD A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AT -60C OR LESS PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS MCS WAS BEING MAINTAINED BY A 55-65 KT SW 850MB JET WHICH
TAPPED INTO A 15-17C DEWPOINT POOL OVER THE PLAINS. FIRST FORECAST
ISSUE WILL BE THE IMPACT OF THIS MCS ON THE CWA THIS MORNING.
AWIPS DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL TAKES THE LEADING EDGE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA JUST BEFORE 10Z/5AM. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NSSL WRF
SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AND BOTH SHOW
CONVECTION MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THROUGH 12-13Z. STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEED IN
FROM THE SW TO KEEP HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1.5 IN/HR WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF FORWARD SPEED
SLOWS OR TRAINING DEVELOPS. WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AN AREA OF 1K DCAPE SHIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. KIRK IN
NE MO RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 57 KTS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS LINE.
SECONDARY FORECAST CONCERN IS POSSIBLE SVR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON FORMING ALONG REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...AND WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING SFC BASED CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 40KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. OF COURSE QUESTION MARKS
REVOLVE AROUND STABILIZING EFFECTS OF MORNING MCS AND RECOVERY.
SPC HAS EXPANDED DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE AREAS NORTH OF I-70.
FOR TONIGHT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER MCS TO FORM NEAR THE
IA/MO BORDER REGION AND SHIFT EAST AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
CWA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BY WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SHIFTING THE MAIN STORM PATH NORTH. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE MSLP GRADIENT CAUSING SOUTH WINDS
TO GUST AROUND 30 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME SUN SHOULD PRODUCE
A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGS A DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. LEAD SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH IN THIS FLOW WILL ACT
ON A HIGH P/W ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...HELPING EASE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS MORE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1115 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR AFFECT ON CIGS
AND VSBYS ACROSS OUR AREA THRU TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WAS DRAPPED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LARGEST AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS STILL LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND THAT COMPLEX
WILL TAKE UNTIL MORNING BEFORE IT AFFECTS ANY OF OUR AREA. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACRS OUR NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SO WILL INCLUDE
VCTS AT KBMI AND KPIA UNTIL WE CAN ACTUALLY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINS APPROACH. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE COMPLEX
OUT OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NW MISSOURI TRACKS INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. HOWEVER...NOT THAT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IT WILL
HOLD TOGETHER OTHER THAN SOME STRATIFORM RAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOWER CIGS BUT THAT FAR OUT WILL NOT HIT THE CIGS THAT HARD.
WHATEVER OCCURRS TUESDAY MORNING...SHOULD TEMPORARILY END BEFORE
A RENEWED THREAT FOR SCATTERED TSRA BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. SFC WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 13 KTS TNT...AND THEN SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047>053-061.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
305 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MO
OVERNIGHT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH BEFORE IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BORDER COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE 3KM HRRR AND THE 13KM RAP GUIDANCE. PREVIOUSLY
INTRODUCED /WITH THE MONDAY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE/ SOME CHANCE
POPS/WEATHER IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PENNYRILE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE SIGNAL HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
WITH THIS PACKAGE. DAYSHIFT WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CAPPING ALOFT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE BRIEFLY HOLDS IN PLACE
WHILE THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
IN ORIENTATION STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW. THE PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM THE
WEST AS AN NORTHWESTWARD TILTED SURFACE-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS /MAINLY IN
THE THE DAKOTAS/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
57 IN ILLINOIS...INTERSTATE 55 IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ALONG
INTERSTATE 64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AFTER 9 AM CDT TODAY...PERSISTING
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LOWERED THRESHOLD FOR
WINDS ON AREA LAKES AND THE SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS
ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF MOST OF THE WATERWAYS IN THE AREA...DECIDED
TO POST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
RETURNING TO RAIN CHANCES...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS FOCUSED LIFT AND
NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY...INTRODUCED OR KEPT POPS IN PLACE FOR
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA /MAINLY
SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL...PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY/ FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POPS ARE INTRODUCED IN A STAIR
STEP FASHION...STARTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN RIPLEY/BUTLER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MO...GRADUALLY WORKING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN IL/PURCHASE
AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN /GEM/ GUIDANCE
SEEMS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS/WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AREAL UNCERTAINTY OF THESE
POPS WITH THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...USED A BLENDED...BUT
MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN SPREADING THE POPS/WEATHER NORTHEAST
WITH TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...A BLOCKING
H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN PUTTING OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS DO SHOW MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT H7 TEMPS REMAIN AOB 10C. EVEN AT THAT THE BIG QUESTION IS
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH CAPPING TO SHUT DOWN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED SO KEPT THEM IN PLACE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM ACTUALLY CROSSES OUR
CWA. AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AOA NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
SHOULD BE A QUIET 24 HOURS AS THE MAIN AXIS OF ACTIVITY STAYS TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST...WHERE THE BEST UPPER FLOW AND SFC WARM FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED. MEANWHILE...IN OUR AREA...BEING SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDINESS (ALL VFR) FROM
TIME TO TIME...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. HRRR
MODEL INDICATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ENTERING THE BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SHOWERS THEN
DISSIPATE BUT RE-EMERGE NEAR THE CENTER OF OUR CWFA WITH THE BETTER
TERRAIN AROUND 08Z BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DISSIPATING AN HOUR OR SO LATER.
DID NOT INCLUDE THIS FEATURE IN THE FORECAST AS THE PCPN LOOKS VERY
LIGHT...IF AT ALL...AND THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING THIS
PCPN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
MESOSCALE COMPLEX BEGINNING TO SWEEP INTO WRN KY. TOPS HAVE WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS EVEN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PCPN HAS FORMED ON THE OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS IN CNTRL ILL.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LIGHT...SO WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE EVENING
WORDING AND FCST ONLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. MOST MODELS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE ENUF OF THE PCPN HOLD
TOGETHER TO GIVE OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER.
EVEN WITH NO PCPN FOR THE REST OF ERN KY...THE COMPLEX WILL PUSH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
NO PCPN WITHIN THE STATE AND THE STORMS IN ILL ARE EITHER MOVING
NORTH OR THE SOUTH END IS DISSIPATING. NEW MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN
WILL MOVE ACROSS IND/OH TO OUR NORTH BUT NOT INTO ERN KY DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. SWRN WINDS ARE STILL BREEZY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN. WILL FURTHER UPDATE WHEN WINDS
DECREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA
AND AS OF 3 PM WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA EAST INTO
SOUTHERN OH AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE WV COALFIELDS. AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH A TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS...AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE A DEEP
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUE WITH RIDING
GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY FLAT CU HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR OVER THE JKL CWA BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE VICINITY AND JUST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT SOME ISOLATED SHRA AND OR TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET...BUT AT LEAST
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION NOW OVER THE MS VALLEY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IT WOULD SEEM THAT DRIER
AIR OVER MUCH OF KY DOWN IN THE TN VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS COMPLEX WEAKENING AS IT WORKS EAST THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR HANDLING OF IT SEEMS MOST REASONABLE
AND THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING CONVECTION ATTM IN THE LOWER OH
VALLEY EAST OF THE COMPLEX OVER MO AND IL. THE GFS ALSO HAS SOME LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA AS WELL. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ALL THE
ACTION CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. OPTED TO GO WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY..BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND AT THIS POINT ANY TRIGGERS HARD TO
DISCERN FOR CONVECTION ON TUE. THERE MAY BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TO
WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WITH HEIGHTS PROGGED TO RISE ON TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT...WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FURTHER ON TUE...INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA WEST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN AN AREA OF
RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD NIGHTS AND
WARM DAYS. INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT WE WILL BE LACKING ANY TRIGGERS.
MODELS ARE STILL LIKELY OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
MOISTURE EACH DAY...SO LIKELY OVERDOING THE CAPE. HOWEVER...SOME
GOOD CU FIELDS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...AND IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO POP A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDES IN THE SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EACH DAY SHOULD FEATURE A SLIGHT BETTER CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING AS
DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCH UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
BY THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RELINQUISH ITS HOLD ON THE AREA
AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY...COULD YIELD A BETTER SHOT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THIS TROUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. PRESENTLY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
DAY 7. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
AT ALL THREE AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. CIGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 11 AND 12 OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OFF AND ON DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ALSO PRESENT AROUND 11K. WINDS AT
LOZ AND SME COULD GUST TO AROUND 15KTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
145 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE NOTED SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KMSP TO KEAU AND EAST OF LINE FROM SHAKOPEE TO TRUMAN. THIS
REGION IS REMNANTS OF MCS WHICH FORMED OVER NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. AREA CORRELATES WELL WITH GFS40 THETA E ADVECTION.
CURRENT HRRR ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. REGION WAS STRUGGLING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
MARCHED NORTH INTO DRIER AIR COLUMN AND CONVERGENCE DEPICTED AT
250MB. EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW MIGRATION OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD
NORTH AS LATE DAY SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN OR SLOWLY
ENHANCE CURRENT INTENSITY. LOOK FOR CESSATION OF MOST PRECIP. FROM
THIS FEATURE BY AROUND 28/06Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
EXPECT ANOTHER LATE NIGHT MCS TO FOLLOW THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ABOVE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA. MCS WILL AGAIN
FORM OVER EASTERN SODAK AND FOLLOW 1000-500MB THICKNESS LINE
DROPPING ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA. SHOULD BE ANOTHER RATHER
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE FAR SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MN
CWA...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS THREE NIGHTS...WITH A FEW TENTHS TO
POSSIBLY FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MCS OVER NORTHERN IOWA SHOULD FOLLOW SAME TRAJECTORY AS TODAY`S
PCPN SHIELD...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW MORE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AS LI`S GRADUALLY RECEDE INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY. MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH MAINLY AROUND
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO PASSAGE.
USED A BLEND BETWEEN NAM AND GFS40 FOR TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
...AND THEN THROTTLED BACK ONE CATEGORY. OF COURSE INTENSITY AND
FORWARD SPEED OF RAINFALL SHIELD MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER TEMPERATURES NEED TO BE CUT EVEN FURTHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY
TIME FRAME...AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
FOCUSED THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE WESTERN
TROUGH SURGES EASTWARD...AND THE FRONT AND ADVECTION PROCESSES
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
INFLUENCES...AND COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AND ENHANCE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS WELL. PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD VALUES /1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES/...WHILE THE TROUGH STRUCTURE PROVIDES THE SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CONTINUES THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
END OF MAY...RANGING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND THEN
DECLINE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS IN JUNE /65 TO 70 DEGREES/.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
ALL SITES INITIALIZED AT MVFR WITH IFR CIGS NOT ALL THAT FAR
OFF. AREA OF -SHRA/-DZ OVER WRN WI CONTINUES TO SHRINK...
EVENTUALLY SHUTTING OFF BY ABOUT 08Z-09Z. AS WINDS DIMINISH A BIT
AND PRECIP ENDS...CIGS WILL LOWER INTO IFR RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. A WINDOW FOR PRECIP TO RETURN LOOKS MOST EVIDENT BETWEEN
10Z-16Z TMRW IN MN...AND A FEW HRS LATER IN WI...AND HAVE PLAYED
THE TAFS AS SUCH. PRECIP ITSELF WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLY
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR VSBY. SHOWERS LOOK TO END ARND
18Z- 20Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDS AFTERWARDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CB/TS THRU TMRW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE THRU THE NIGHT...THEN
SOME LGT/VRBL WINDS WILL DEVELOP MID-TO-LATE DAY TMRW BEFORE WINDS
SWING SW.
KMSP...INITIALIZED JUST ABOVE IFR CIGS BUT AM EXPECTING CIGS TO
DROP BELOW 1 KFT BEFORE TOO LONG AND THEN TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. A WINDOW OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-20Z FOR KMSP AND HAVE RUN WITH MVFR VSBY DURG
THIS TIME. THAT MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC SO THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED
IF NECESSARY. CONDS IMPROVE BY LATE TMRW AFTN TO VFR FOR BOTH
CIG/VSBY AND WILL REMAIN AS SUCH THRU TMRW EVE. WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY SE THRU THE PERIOD...BUT GO LGT/VRBL TMRW AFTN BEFORE
SHIFTING TO S AND SE TMRW EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. SHRA/TSRA
LIKELY... MAINLY IN THE AFTN. WINDS S 10-15 KT.
THU...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS S 15-20
KT.
FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LIKELY. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS SW 10-15
KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
SO FAR THE MPX CWA HAS LUCKED OUT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS HEAVY
RAINS HAVE REMAINED CONFINED TO IOWA. THIS LOOKS REMAIN THE CASE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A POTENT TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS WORKING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FINALLY HELP PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS FROM THE NAM/GFS ARE FORECAST TO BE UP AROUND
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD FOR MAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A
STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN LLJ FORECAST TO COME UP INTO MN ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY WORK INTO WI THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE TREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE MPX CWA. IN PARTICULAR...AREAS AROUND SE MN INTO
WRN WI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR FLOODING DUE BOTH TO
RECENT WETNESS AND THE FACT THAT THESE AREAS WILL BE SPENDING THE
LONGEST AMOUNT OF TIME WITHIN THE GULF MOISTURE FEED. STILL LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF SFC
FEATURES...BUT WE COULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THAT COULD RESULT IN TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...AND RECENT BIAS IN DETERMINISTIC
MODELS TO FORECAST TOO MUCH QPF MAKING IT UP INTO THE MPX
CWA IN RECENT DAYS...HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
SORT OF FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
HYDROLOGY...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
242 AM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO WET SHOWERY WEATHER WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND TOMORROW. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TODAY
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MAY. THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ON
TAP THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A PACIFIC CYCLONE PUMMELS INTO THE
SILVER STATE. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON
DIFFLUENT ONSHORE FLOW...ENHANCED PWS...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE
BISECTING THE REGION. THE INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT VECTORS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE LIONS SHARE OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WEST OF THE SIERRA. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT QPF
TO SPILL OVER INTO THE LKN CWA...WITH THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 PINGING
INTO .25 OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF OR MORE WITH THIS EVENT. THE LOWEST
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE SHELDON NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE...HOVERING BETWEEN 7100 AND 7300 FEET...AND CLOSER TO 8000
FEET FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. THE HRRR IMPLIES UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITIES THAT WOULD SUPPORT TSRA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE +200
J/KG AND NEGATIVE LIS ON THE NAM12. HOWEVER...KEEP TS ACTIVITY
ISOLATED IN THE GRIDS. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS TODAY. GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES AT 700M AND
500MB...EXPECTED THE STRONGEST WINDS TO MATERIALIZE OVER NORTHERN
NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. ISSUED A NPW FROM 21Z TO 03Z TODAY.
EXPECTING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE A SECOND REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NV RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. ALL MODELS
DEPICT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE WINDING DOWN SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
WORK EAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BREEZY TO MAYBE WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...SHOULD BE BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BY FRIDAY...RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE WEST...ACROSS
OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...SO SHOULD
SEE SOME WARMING AS WELL DURING THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEEKEND...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF A MIDWESTERN CANADIAN SYSTEM. SHOULD KEEP DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT/NMRS -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BY 18Z LATER THIS MORNING...VCTS POSSIBLE AT
KWMC...KELY...AND KEKO...CONTINUING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES. SHRA WILL TAPER TO -SHRA FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS AT THE THREE TAF LOCATIONS
W-NW10-20G30KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN KELY. KTPH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR...BUT WILL HAVE NW15-25G40KT...WITH POSSIBLE BLDU IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS ALL ZONES.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED TSRA. A
SECOND SLUG OF PACIFIC ENERGY WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN
MORE RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS IS LOCATED. EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...USHERING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
97/92/92/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
355 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH SHOULD EXIT CWA THIS MORNING. INCREASING
HEAT/HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON TO END OF THE WEEK. NO ORGANIZED
FRONTS IN VICINITY UNTIL WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 07Z ON THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT...SHALLOW SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW NORTH
OF PKB TO NEAR CKB/MGW. YET...925 MB FRONT ALREADY WELL TO THE
NORTH. 925 MB WINDS ON VAD ABOUT 30 KNOTS...KEEPING SOME HILLTOPS
MILDER THAN ADJACENT VALLEYS.
A MID LEVEL 700 MB TROF AXIS WAS DEPICTED ON RAP AND VAD WINDS NR
ILN TO SDF AT 08Z. WEAK SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE
CROSSES OUR NORTHERN ZONES 12Z THRU 15Z. SO HAVE SOME 20 TO 30 POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING FOR A LIGHT SHOWER.
YET...RAP FORECASTING SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THAT VORT AXIS DRAGGING
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM AND GFS ON THEIR 00Z
RUNS...SHOW MID LEVEL WARMING AT AROUND 8 TO 10 THSD FT TRYING TO
FORM A CAP. SO WILL ONLY LEAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER.
THE WARM UP STARTS IN EARNEST TODAY. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE LINGERS OVERNIGHT...SO PATCHES OF 4 TO 7
THSD FT CLOUDS MAY STILL BE HANGING AROUND LATE TONIGHT. OF
COURSE...THIS CAUSES US HEADACHES TRYING TO FIGURE THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WHICH BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A BIT EACH DAY. THE
RIDGE STARTS BREAKING DOWN BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. PRECIP WISE...HAVE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE INSTABILITY...AND ALSO INCLUDED SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN
SE OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL A BIT AND A 500MB
RIPPLE STREAMS ACROSS OHIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM...GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE
DOWN FASTER ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
EARLY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER
THE SE STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NOT ALLOWING FOR FROPA ACROSS OUR CWA
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MORE LINEAR SOLUTION OF
THE GFS AND EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT ON ECMWF TIMING...ZONAL FLOW
APPEARS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH OUT TO DAY 6 AND 7.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY CEILINGS AT 5 TO 8 THSD FT 06Z THROUGH 14Z WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA. VSBY MAY LOWER BRIEFLY TO 5 MILES.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL 14Z THROUGH 23Z
WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FORM 18Z TODAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. 00Z NAM
AND GFS TRY TO WARM HE MID LEVELS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT MSL JUST ENOUGH
TO FORM CAP. YET...A WEAK VORT MAX AT 500 MB AND INCREASING SURFACE
HEATING...HAS US STILL MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION.
MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE LINGERS TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE.
SO PATCHES OF 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS. SOME 5
TO 6 MILES IN HAZE MAY FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS VCNTY EKN BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY NOT FORM WITH
DEVELOP MID LEVEL WARMING/CAP.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/28/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
345 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH SHOULD EXIT CWA THIS MORNING. INCREASING
HEAT/HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON TO END OF THE WEEK. NO ORGANIZED
FRONTS IN VICINITY UNTIL WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 07Z ON THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT...SHALLOW SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW NORTH
OF PKB TO NEAR CKB/MGW. YET...925 MB FRONT ALREADY WELL TO THE
NORTH. 925 MB WINDS ON VAD ABOUT 30 KNOTS...KEEPING SOME HILLTOPS
MILDER THAN ADJACENT VALLEYS.
A MID LEVEL 700 MB TROF AXIS WAS DEPICTED ON RAP AND VAD WINDS NR
ILN TO SDF AT 08Z. WEAK SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE
CROSSES OUR NORTHERN ZONES 12Z THRU 15Z. SO HAVE SOME 20 TO 30 POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING FOR A LIGHT SHOWER.
YET...RAP FORECASTING SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THAT VORT AXIS DRAGGING
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM AND GFS ON THEIR 00Z
RUNS...SHOW MID LEVEL WARMING AT AROUND 8 TO 10 THSD FT TRYING TO
FORM A CAP. SO WILL ONLY LEAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER.
THE WARM UP STARTS IN EARNEST TODAY. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE LINGERS OVERNIGHT...SO PATCHES OF 4 TO 7
THSD FT CLOUDS MAY STILL BE HANGING AROUND LATE TONIGHT. OF
COURSE...THIS CAUSES US HEADACHES TRYING TO FIGURE THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...POSITIONING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN AMPLIFIED SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF SHORE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A WELL
ADVERTISED WARM UP IN FULL FORCE...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MTNS DUE TO MOISTURE RICH UPSLOPE FLOW THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE FRIDAY WITH THE
POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM...GFS
BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN FASTER ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
THE RIDGE OVER THE SE STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NOT ALLOWING FOR FROPA
ACROSS OUR CWA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MORE LINEAR
SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT ON ECMWF
TIMING...ZONAL FLOW APPEARS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH OUT TO DAY
6 AND 7...
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY CEILINGS AT 5 TO 8 THSD FT 06Z THROUGH 14Z WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA. VSBY MAY LOWER BRIEFLY TO 5 MILES.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL 14Z THROUGH 23Z
WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FORM 18Z TODAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. 00Z NAM
AND GFS TRY TO WARM HE MID LEVELS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT MSL JUST ENOUGH
TO FORM CAP. YET...A WEAK VORT MAX AT 500 MB AND INCREASING SURFACE
HEATING...HAS US STILL MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION.
MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE LINGERS TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE.
SO PATCHES OF 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS. SOME 5
TO 6 MILES IN HAZE MAY FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS VCNTY EKN BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY NOT FORM WITH
DEVELOP MID LEVEL WARMING/CAP.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/28/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
158 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO WORK EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...PRIMARILY AFFECTING OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY WEAKENING AS THEY PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE BEFORE THEY
GENERALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM LIFTS NORTH AND WE
ALSO LOSE THE BETTER INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING EAST ALONG A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA. EXPECT THESE TOO TO WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH EAST THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. THAT BEING SAID...THE EASTWARD EXTENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN
DOUBT. THE LATEST HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW SOME PCPN HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SO WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS MAKING IT INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHWEST TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE INTO NW AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THERE IS DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
TUESDAY WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF
30 MILES PER HOUR. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP
DOWN INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CAP THE REGION LEADING TO DRY AND VERY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS A SOMEWHAT QUICKER SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE. SO IT APPEARS
THAT HEIGHTS WILL LOWER ENOUGH BY FRIDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH
STILL SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT. BUT A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND PUSH IT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY
TROUGH. BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS
THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES COULD SEE A WEAKENING SHOWER BUT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS IN THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN
8000 AND 11000 FEET AGL. HAVE COVERED THIS THREAT WITH A MENTION
OF VCSH. EXPECT A GENERAL LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURG THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH HEATING AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN
TAF SITES. IN THE WARM AIRMASS A CAP SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE TAFS DRY AT THIS POINT WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...CLOSER
TO THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TODAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 28 KTS THIS AFTN.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
422 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING
WITH PROFILER NETWORK ANALYZING A SWLY 55-65KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ORIENTED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
STORMS OVER CENTRAL MO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACK-BUILDING ALONG JET
AXIS TOWARD NW ARKANSAS. ALSO AN APPARENT WAVE EMBEDDED IN WSW
FLOW ALOFT TO OUR WEST. LOCAL MODEL AND HRRR LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO
NAM SOLUTION OF BREAKING OUT PRECIP ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING AND MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE
MORNING PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME STRONGLY CAPPED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LATER THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY
LINE FAR TO OUR WEST.
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH IN NE OKLAHOMA...BUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY IT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. MIXING MAY ALSO BE
HAMPERED A BIT BY CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AS
STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ONSHORE SLIDES EAST. THIS WILL GIVE
DRY LINE STORMS TO OUR WEST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETTER
SUPPORT TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN OK AND
POSSIBLY FAR NW ARKANSAS. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT EARLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER THU AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER JET IN
FAVORABLE POSITION...THIS PERIOD WILL OFFER GREATEST THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST WIND PROFILES
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER.
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF PLEASANTLY COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 85 72 83 70 / 10 10 20 70
FSM 87 69 86 68 / 10 10 10 50
MLC 84 72 83 71 / 10 10 20 50
BVO 84 70 83 70 / 10 10 20 70
FYV 83 66 81 68 / 10 10 10 60
BYV 84 68 82 67 / 10 10 10 60
MKO 85 69 82 67 / 10 10 10 70
MIO 86 69 84 68 / 10 10 10 60
F10 83 71 82 69 / 10 10 20 60
HHW 84 69 83 69 / 10 10 20 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
448 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH MCV TRACKING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE OVER OUR CWA...AND THUS AS
EXPECTED THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY IS THUS
EXPECTED...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. CONCERNED ABOUT
LOW STRATUS AND FOG LINGERING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
THOUGH. FLOW BECOMES PRETTY WEAK TODAY...WITH NOT MUCH OF A PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THUS STRATUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER. THESE HIGHS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE NEWER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. LOOKING AT READINGS AROUND
70 SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ADJUSTMENTS UP OR
DOWN AREA LIKELY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER EVOLUTION...THUS ANOTHER
LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...ADVECTING IN RICH THETAE AIR AND HIGH
PWATS. MEANWHILE IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS
ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND THIS EVOLUTION
IS SUPPORTED BY ALMOST ALL HI RES GUIDANCE. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AS DESPITE THE THETAE
ADVECTION...WE DRY OUT ENOUGH TODAY THAT WE DONT QUITE COMPLETELY
RECOVER IN TIME. HOWEVER MAY SEE THE LINE OF STORMS MAKE IT INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 03Z BEFORE IT DOES DISSIPATE...AND THUS
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH THAT ACTIVITY.
EVENTUALLY THE CONTINUED THETAE ADVECTION BECOMES ENOUGH TO SATURATE
US ENOUGH AND DEVELOP ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THUS THOUGHT IS SHOWERS
AND STORMS START BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SEEING MUCH TOO MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
SATURATED THIN CAPE PROFILE. HOWEVER WIND FIELDS ARE STRONGER...THUS
A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ANYTIME
WEDNESDAY. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ENDS UP GOING. BUT HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO FAVOR MUCH OF THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WITH
CONVECTION CONTINUOUSLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OR EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN WIND. GIVEN THE
TRAINING POTENTIAL AND HIGH PWATS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DAY WITH
AN ELEVATED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WE MAY SEE A BREAK FOR A PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS THE TRAINING WAA CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER ATTENTION THEN TURNS YO OUR WEST AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS WITH THIS WAVE...AND THEN MOVE INTO OUR CWA ANYTIME
FROM THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE TOO HIGH...BUT WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TI SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUS THINKING OUR GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT MAY END UP BEING WITH THIS ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING
OR NIGHT. A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IN OUR WEST...BUT TIMING
SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION WOULD PROBABLY BE LINEAR BY THE TIME IT
IMPACTS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH STRONG WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WEDNESDAY...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE. THUS BY
THURSDAY THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...AND DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. THUS SEVERE
THREAT ON THURSDAY SHOULD END UP SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. BY LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH GOING ON
ACROSS OUR AREA. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT THIS AGAIN DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. AREAS THAT SEE
SUN COULD REACH THE 80S BOTH DAYS...WHILE 60S ARE A POSSIBILITY
WHERE CLOUDS HOLD TOUGH. /
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FINALLY
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD ND AND MN LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS MEANS QUIETER WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH ONE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE CHANCES OF ANY ONE LOCATION
GETTING A WETTING RAIN IS FAIRLY REMOTE. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW LIFTING
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER DOWN PROMISING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY AND MONDAY...70S SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
TAF SITES HON/FSD/SUX ON THE EDGE OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS THIS
EVENING. STRATUS SHOULD EXPAND AND ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MID TO LATE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 05Z AND ENDING
BEFORE 12Z. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND REDUCED CONDITIONS TO
IFR AT TIMES. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND SOME HAZE/LIGHT FOG WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ067-070-071.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014.
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHENARD/MJF
AVIATION...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
MADE SOME MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RUC. NEWEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE LINE OF TSTORMS CURRENTLY WEST RIVER WILL HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. KEPT EVERYTHING
EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY DRY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE JAMES VALLEY ITSELF. ALSO LOWERED THE CHANCES OF
STORMS BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE JAMES RIVER FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ALRIGHT AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY TONIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WYOMING IS PRODUCING
SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EASTWARD DUE TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LITTLE INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES. BASED ON SEVERAL
HI-RES MODELS...IT SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY CONVECTION WILL REACH THE
MISSOURI RIVER BEFORE 0Z...MAY PERHAPS THE JAMES RIVER CLOSER TO
6Z. GENERALLY EXPECTING A SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORM CELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA SHORTY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THAT
SAID...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
PEAK HEATING COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY GOOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND SHEAR IS LACKING SO STRONG STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
INCREASING LLM VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER BACKWARD TOWARDS THE BLACK HILLS REGION WHERE UP-
SLOPE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
THIS CWA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM AND THEN
DIVERGE SOME THROUGH MID AND LATE IN THE LONG TERM. A STRONGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
US IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. AS IT DOES...THE
TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE LOCATION OF CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION AND SUBSEQUENT TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH LARGE BROAD SCALE LIFT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
GOOD WARM FRONT SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...EXPECT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION. EVERYTHING WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A STRONG LLJ
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS EARLY AND IS WIDESPREAD...SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE MORE
LIMITED. HAVE IN GOOD CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT...THURSDAY MAY
ALSO HAVE SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY EAST IN THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE DRYING IT OUT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
COOLING BACK TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. MONDAY SHOULD WARM BACK UP WITH MORE
SUNSHINE WITH THE AFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COMING IN FROM
THE WEST BRINGING THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AT MBG AND ABR.
EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME FOG AT ABR...ATY AND PIR AGAIN
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.
OTHERWISE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
354 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR WITH THIS WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHILE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN DECIDEDLY MIXED REGARDING HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION LATER THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST WRF/NAM APPEARS QUITE SHOWERY BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH WANING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING OWING TO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHILE THE LATEST RAP ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS
THE RELEASE OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY UNTIL AFTER NOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
EXPLODE ALONG THE SURFACE DRY-LINE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WHAT SEEMS CERTAIN IS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD UP INTO THE AREA LATER IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THEREFORE...WE REMAIN LESS CONFIDENT HOW THIS MAY IMPACT REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ENERGY LATER TODAY. WE HAVE SOMEWHAT SPLIT BETWEEN THE
POSSIBLE CHOICES...HOLDING CHANCES LOW THIS MORNING THOUGH RETAINING
MODEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAXIMUM POTENTIAL ENERGY AND SHEAR PROFILES LATER TODAY CERTAINLY
SUGGEST OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE OR EVEN
VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WHILE HELICITY LEVELS AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRY-LINE WOULD OFFER ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL WITH
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3000-6000 FEET. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL WITH OUR REDUCED CONFIDENCE...WE THINK IT MAY BE BEST
TO LEAN A BIT TOWARDS THE WORSER OUTCOME UNTIL CLARITY IMPROVES. WE
INCREASED CHANCES SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...RETAINING SEVERE
MENTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MINOR CHANGES FOR MAJORITY
OF GRID FIELDS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW FAR THE DRYLINE WILL
MOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER
WEST TEXAS MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THIS POINT...WEST TEXAS WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FAVORABLE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL JET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE LIFT
BEGINNING EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BECOME UNCAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH PROGGED CAPE VALUES CRESTING AT 3000-3500 J/KG. INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING SUPERCELLS.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE THE FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION
WITH SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY NORMAL TO THE DRYLINE.
SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY KEEPING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MOSTLY DRY. BY LATE ON
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA
WHICH MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE EXISTS A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THE
MOMENT IN REGARDS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT.
NONETHELESS...HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A POSSIBILITY WHEREVER THE FRONT
DOES BECOME STATIONARY. JDV
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH
PLAINS BOTH AFTERNOONS. DEEP MIXING WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EVEN
FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY SPAWNING A LARGER CRITICAL AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 65 92 58 93 / 20 30 20 0 0
TULIA 89 67 89 59 92 / 40 30 20 10 0
PLAINVIEW 88 67 90 61 94 / 40 30 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 91 68 93 61 95 / 40 30 20 10 0
LUBBOCK 88 68 92 64 95 / 40 30 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 94 68 93 60 96 / 30 30 20 0 0
BROWNFIELD 91 69 93 63 96 / 40 30 20 10 0
CHILDRESS 89 69 86 69 95 / 40 30 40 30 10
SPUR 87 69 88 68 95 / 40 30 30 20 10
ASPERMONT 88 71 87 72 94 / 40 30 40 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
244 AM PDT Tue May 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Today and tomorrow will be showery and cool as a pair of upper
level disturbances move through the Pacific Northwest. The low
pressure pattern will begin to break down on Thursday, and we will
likely begin to see some clearing over central Washington. By
Friday and into the weekend, weak high pressure is expected to
bring a good deal of sunshine and temperatures at or above
average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday night...Longwave trof remains in place
overhead of Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho through this
time interval. The cool pool contained in the trof keeps a
somewhat unstable air mass in place. The model vorticity fields
remain cluttered and hint at numerous small scale disturbances in
vicinity through this period so pops never really zero out but
have maximums associated with most significant shortwave features
of note. This includes a very small synoptic scale negatively
tilted trof passing through Today. The HRRR does a very good job
of resolving a thin line of convective showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two associated with this trof passage and
additionally hints at some orographically forced showers produced
this afternoon and evening. Since instability is greatest near
the British Columbia border have limited the inclusion of slight
chance of thunderstorm mention for today to the northern mountains
and don`t extend them too far south. Tuesday night has decrease
in convective showers but no end as models continue to hint at
presence of mesoscale shortwaves capable of generating them...
with most model runs focusing activity generally near northern
mountain locations highest pops are there as well. Wednesday yet
another negatively tilted very small synoptic scale disturbance
moves through tracking west to east near the Oregon/Washington
border that is depicted to take a turn and track northeast
Wednesday evening thus pops depict this same scenario. This
disturbance passing Tuesday night into Wednesday has the best
orientation to its moisture tap via an almost south to north
trajectory, therefore it should not have any problems getting
through and a cascades rain shadow will not be produced. Forecast
temperatures remain on the cool side of what would be considered
normal for this time of year given this general trof pattern.
/Pelatti
Thursday: There is still a good deal of uncertainty with the
forecast for Thursday. An elongated upper trough extending from
south of the Aleutians into the Central Plains will bisect the
state of Washington. This "mucky" upper trough will likely contain
some mesoscale feature within it, but it is very tough to forecast
where these little vorticity centers will be at this time. The 00z
GFS is the wettest of the models for Thursday for the Idaho
Panhandle and northeast Washington when compared to the NAM,
ECMWF, SREF and Canadian. So, it is hard to get more excited than
carrying a 20-50 percent chance of showers for the eastern third
of Washington into the Idaho Panhandle, with the highest chances
near the ID/MT border. Lingering showers and clouds will have a
big influence on high temperatures, so there is a high bust
potential given the uncertainty in the precipitation forecast.
Friday through Sunday: There is good model agreement that the
ridiculously elongated upper trough will be broken into pieces by
Friday. A shortwave upper ridge is forecast to develop over the
Pacific Northwest Friday and Saturday bringing an end to the
threat of organized shower activity. Temperatures should moderate
to average during this time frame as well. The shortwave ridge is
expected to be replaced by an upper low descending into southern
British Columbia on Sunday. This low will not be particularly cold
aloft and the high amplitude ridge upstream will cut off any deep
moisture tap. The ECMWF and Canadian models are colder and more
unstable aloft near the Canadian border than the GFS. Slight
chances for showers have been mentioned mainly for the mountain
zones near the B.C. border. /GKoch
Sunday night through Tuesday: A Northwest flow pattern will
prevail through this period as high pressure ridging from the
South Pacific will press North into the region. This ridging will
keep will keep a passing system in southern BC. Any precip
associated with this Low will be mainly in the Northern Mountains
of the Idaho Panhandle but is hard to be certain as the model
agreement is low. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal
norms during this period. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The mid level occluded front is currently stretching from
KPUW to KSEA over the region. Out ahead of this front is a band of
light stratiform rain. Once this band clears the taf sites, we are
expecting a layer of low stratus to develop across much of the
region, especially north of a line from KMWH to KPUW. This stratus
will result in MVFR cigs and vis with localized IFR cigs possible.
Another batch of showers will move northeast out of northeast Oregon
later tonight into early tomorrow morning. These showers will become
more widespread through the afternoon hours on Tuesday with the
stratus lifting into a stratocumulus deck with VFR conditions
returning by this time. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 64 45 62 46 62 46 / 50 30 40 30 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 43 63 45 60 44 / 50 40 40 30 40 30
Pullman 62 43 60 43 60 43 / 30 30 40 40 20 10
Lewiston 68 48 67 48 67 48 / 30 20 60 50 20 10
Colville 68 44 68 46 65 45 / 60 60 50 40 50 20
Sandpoint 62 42 63 45 57 43 / 60 60 50 40 50 30
Kellogg 59 44 58 45 55 43 / 60 60 60 50 60 40
Moses Lake 72 47 69 49 72 47 / 20 10 40 30 10 10
Wenatchee 68 49 66 50 69 49 / 20 10 50 30 10 10
Omak 70 45 69 46 69 45 / 50 30 30 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1122 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
THE NEAR TERM FOCUS REMAINS ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN. CURRENTLY...A
LEFT OVER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING NEAR IT. THE MAIN BAND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THEN DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MORE POTENT PART OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE
STALLED OUT PATTERN...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DIMINISHMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP ACROSS THIS REGION.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO THE SOUTH WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH
CURRENTLY IS ALIGNED ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT IN HOW THINGS WILL TRANSPIRE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE ADVECTED THIS NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IOWA AFTER 6Z WITH THE
MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION TRACKING THAT WAY AS WELL. AN ADDITIONAL
BOOST IN LIFT COMES IN BEFORE 12Z AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CATCHES UP TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BOTH THE 28.00Z
RAP & HRRR INCREASE THE 0-3KM MUCAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA...SO THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE STILL PRETTY
DECENT THERE. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS STILL THERE...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND NOT
SO MUCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD AFFECT
THIS PATTERN IS WITH THE MCS THAT HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF OMAHA
THAT COULD KEEP THE STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN NORTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT RAINS IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME OF THIS RAIN TO BE AROUND AT
00Z AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 27.17Z HRRR. SURFACE ANALYSIS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS TWO BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
WEAK WARM FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A MUCH STRONGER WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. ALL THE 27.12Z MODELS BRING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THE NAM SHOWS THIS WAVE PRODUCING UP TO 4 PVU/S OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THE LIFT FROM THE
WAVE SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY SOME AGEOSTROPHIC MOTIONS AS THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE
MAIN WARM FRONT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THE MAIN AREA OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD NOT GET AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NOSE OF THIS COMING INTO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE WILL BE. EXPECT THAT THE NEXT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS EVENING AND
GRADUALLY WORK NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN SOUTH OF THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. STILL GOOD
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR THE STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE COMPLEX THAT FORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS CONVECTION...THE WARM FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TUESDAY STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND WARMER AIR STAYING SOUTH
OF THE AREA...SIGNIFICANTLY CUT TEMPERATURES AND CONCERNED THAT
THESE MAY STILL BE TOO WARM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
ONCE THE WAVE MOVES BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START
TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. STILL
EXPECTING SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THESE WILL TRACK IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS THEY COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA OR STAY OFF TO THE WEST. ONCE
THIS PATTERN SETS UP...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE DOWN STREAM RIDGING BLOCKS OFF ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD GET LIFTED NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA IN THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHWEST FLOW EITHER
TUESDAY NIGHT OR MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. HAVE THUS CUT BACK ON
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOWING THE WARM AIR
ARRIVING FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...MAY BE SOMEWHAT
OF BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A LINE OF CONVECTION
FORMS ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER POSSIBLE LULL IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE MODELS
ARE CORRECT ON TIMING...A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE
COMING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND WILL TRY TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WILL ACTUALLY HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BETWEEN 1500 AND
2000 J/KG OF SB CAPE COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY IF THE AREA CAN STAY FREE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE. SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE 0-3 KM LAYER SO IF THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...LOOKS LIKE THE THREATS WOULD BE HAIL
AND WINDS.
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AND TAKE ON A POSITIVE TILT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
TO FLATTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN PROGRESSING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND FINALLY CLEAR THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH THE
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND COLD FRONT WELL OFF
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING WITH WAVES EXPECTED TO STILL BE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND RAIN
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS TO
BUILD IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF IT AND CAUSE THE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE. SOME OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN LATER THIS MORNING AS A
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS IOWA. THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO START A TREND
OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH SOME POTENTIALLY DRIER AIR
GETTING PULLED IN BEHIND IT. STILL EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE IFR
TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
CONFIDENCE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING HAS DECREASED TODAY WITH
THE MAIN BAND OF ACTIVITY NOW EXPECTED TO STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME SUNDAY. NOW EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO BE UNDER
AN INCH BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD PUSH TOTALS UP TO TWO INCHES. NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES
TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS WILL LET TONIGHTS
CONVECTION PLAY OUT AND THEN MAY ADJUSTMENTS IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
TIME AS NEEDED. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TURKEY RIVER
ACROSS CLAYTON COUNTY AS HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS COULD PUSH IT TO
FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS...WILL SPREAD
OVER AR TODAY. PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING BUT
WILL THIN AS WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN AR BUT ONLY USED
VCSH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WINDS WILL BE SE TO S AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME SE TO SW AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP ACROSS AR
AND PRODUCE WIND SHEAR FROM THE S TO SW AT 30 TO 45 KNOTS TO 2000
FEET. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM WEST OF FORT SMITH UP THROUGH HARRISON.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF ARKANSAS. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IF NOT
A DEGREE WARMER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OUT WEST. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERATE CONVECTION
EAST OF A SURFACE LOW AND DRY LINE SETUP STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF
TEXAS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...THESE IMPULSES AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL DO THE SAME. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST IN SE ARKANSAS TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS...BUT BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS WED EVENING AS ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME ONGOING CONVECTION PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NWRN HALF OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS WHEN THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE SHORT TERM WILL EXIST. CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COOLED AIR MAY DISRUPT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THU
AFTERNOON...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SURFACE
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THU NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MCS
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NW ARKANSAS AND SRN MISSOURI LATE THU
NIGHT AS A RESULT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH ONLY AFTERNOON CU FOR CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WED THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TO START THE EXTENDED...THE BROAD UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE SE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALSO DRIFTS TO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER SW FLOW WILL BRING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO AR AND A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF
AR. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO AR AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY MOVES OVER AR.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE AR AND LA STATE LINE...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE TN VALLEY. ON MONDAY...DRIER AND A BIT
COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST
ON HOW FAR THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES THE COLD FRONT. IT IS THE END OF
MAY AND A BIT UNUSUALLY TO HAVE A COLD FRONT PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...THEN COOL A BIT IF THE
AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 87 68 86 69 / 10 10 10 30
CAMDEN AR 88 69 87 70 / 10 10 20 20
HARRISON AR 84 67 83 67 / 10 10 20 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 69 85 70 / 10 10 20 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 70 87 70 / 10 10 10 30
MONTICELLO AR 89 70 86 70 / 10 10 20 20
MOUNT IDA AR 85 68 84 70 / 10 10 20 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 86 68 85 68 / 20 10 20 40
NEWPORT AR 88 69 86 70 / 10 10 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 88 69 86 70 / 10 10 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 87 69 85 69 / 10 10 20 30
SEARCY AR 87 69 86 69 / 10 10 10 30
STUTTGART AR 88 70 86 70 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...59
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1019 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
SUMMERTIME SIZZLE THEN VISITS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
DID NOT GO AHEAD WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST. WILL
AWAIT 28.12Z FORECAST GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES. INITIAL
GLANCE...PRESENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS NY/PA/NJ IS MOVING
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN 0Z/6Z FORECAST GUIDANCE CURRENTLY PROJECTS.
IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS
WEATHER. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION SLIGHTLY FASTER...BUT ERODE WITH THE COMBINATION
OF SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LAYER DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
/SEE THE 28.12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING/. LESSER CONFIDENCE ON THE
THUNDER RISK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.
28.12Z HRRR IS THE BEST MODEL BY FAR. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST
PATTERN IS SUCCINCT WITH THE MCS REMNANTS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
WITH THE 0-6 KM MEAN WIND THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS ALONG THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE LATEST 28.12Z NAM HAS THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY SOUTH THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE REMAINING NORTH. WHILE AWAITING LATER GUIDANCE...FEELING
IS FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH AND WEST INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE SOUTH AND EAST WILL SUCCUMB TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DRY
SOUNDING PROFILE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SUGGESTS MOSTLY DRY WX
CONTINUES INTO THE DAY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
UPSTREAM POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THIS WILL HAVE TWO
EFFECTS...MAINLY ON THE CONVECTIVE AND RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT AND
ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES BECOME COMPLETELY OVC FROM ANY CI BLOWOFF.
OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY SLOWLY INCREASING SFC
DEWPOINTS. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS
COOLER AND IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW AS
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM NY. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE MID LVL WARM FRONT MOVES WELL AHEAD OF THE SFC
WARM FRONT...ALLOWING H85 TEMPS TO INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND
PRODUCING A STABLE /AND INVERTED/ NEAR SFC PROFILE. GUIDANCE IS
NOW CONVERGING ON THE TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT...SUGGESTING IT IS
ONLY JUST AT THE SW BOX CWA DOORSTEP BY 12Z. THEREFORE...SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SFC/ WITH BEST
UPPER LVL COOLING AND SFC WARMING HOLDING OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK.
WILL NEED TO AT LEAST WATCH UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED THE REMNANTS OF
AN MCC THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS LOOKS FAVORABLE...SUGGESTING ANY
REMNANT CONVECTION WOULD BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES SRN
NEW ENGLAND. STILL IS AT LEAST SOME /NEAR 30-40 KT/ 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY
THROUGH ABOUT H5 THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO WORK WITH. PRIMARY THREAT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR AS ANY REMNANT CONVECTION MOVES E AS PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES. WILL AT LEAST NEED TO MONITOR ANY
SHIFT IN WARM FRONT POSITIONING HOWEVER...BECAUSE A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT COULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO HOLD UNTIL REACHING SRN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT FOR NOW BEST INSTABILITY AND STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO
STAY SW THROUGH 12Z.
WED...
WITH DIURNAL TEMP INCREASE AND HELP FROM SUNRISE...EXPECT THAT SFC
WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING SFC TEMPS AND DWPTS /WHICH REACH INTO
THE 60S BY AFTERNOON/. AT THE SAME TIME...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
DECREASE IN H5 TEMPS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...CONTINUE TO NOTE
DECREASING STABILITY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SB
CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
THERE BE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE FRONT LIFTS
N...THIS COULD EASILY APPROACH 2000+ J/KG. WITH UPPER LVL WAVE AND
SFC BOUNDARY IN PLACE...FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR
LIFT TO REALIZE THIS INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 30-40 KT DURING THE DAY WITH A HODOGRAPH
SUGGESTING NEARLY UNIFORM SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS
WITH A DECENT INVERTED-V PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS AND THE PRIMARY
THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG-GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TO MID LVL HELICITY VALUES ARE NOT EXTREME
HERE...BUT DO AT LEAST SUGGEST SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE.
NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES ARE LOW...SO WITH ONLY MODEST ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...HAIL THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOWER THAN STRONG WIND THREAT.
IN ANY STORMS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH PWAT VALUES
IN 1.5+ INCHES...BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY WELL GIVEN THE
UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
LOOK TO BE TOWARD THE N AND W OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT FOR LIFT TO THE N...AND DEEPER IN THE WARM SECTOR AS ONE
HEADS W. THEREFORE...BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE IN WRN
MA/CT AND SW NH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS COINCIDES WITH 28/06Z
CATEGORICAL SPC OUTLOOK UPDATE WITH SLIGHT RISK IN THIS REGION.
WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS THINKING...ADDING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
GULF OF ALASKA LOW DIGS OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES...WHICH
INDUCES THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
LEAVES A CLEAR PATH FOR THE WARM HUMID AIR IN THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE
ON THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE OCEAN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAKING ROOM FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS SUPPORTING UPPER JET
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST USA.
MODEL PREFERENCES...
UPPER CONTOUR FIELDS ARE SIMILAR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PREFER A BLEND OF HPC/GMOS AND ECMWF/GFS DATA.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
UPPER SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND PUSHING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. ACTUALLY...THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT HIDDEN
IN THE MODEL FIELDS...BUT ONE SO WEAK THAT ITS EFFECTS COULD BE
OVERLOOKED. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALOFT AND TOTALS 45-50...SO SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE REASONABLE.
TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK. TEMPS ALOFT
UNDER THIS RIDGE ALSO BUILD WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER EQUIVALENT TO 17-18C AT 850 MB ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SOUTHWEST
WIND AND LOOKS TOO STRONG FOR AN EAST COAST SEABREEZE. THIS
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 85-95 WITH THE WARMEST MAX TEMPS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED DEWPOINTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...HIGHER VALUES ARE ONLY ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS
WILL GIVE US A TASTE OF SUMMER HUMIDITY AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S.
CONVECTION WILL BE A QUESTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH
AND SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL WORK AGAINST ANY STORMS FORMING. BUT
STABILITY PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE...TOTALS HOLD AT 47 TO
50 PER ECMWF. SO CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANY OF THESE DAYS...BUT
WITH LOW LIKELIHOOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE CT VALLEY AND BERKSHIRE EAST
SLOPE...BUT WITH A CHANCE LATER IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST.
MONDAY...
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST COAST MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE
UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRESENT A RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE HUMID
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SO SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW THROUGH WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TODAY...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE TONIGHT INTO WED.
VFR UNDER HIGH PRES CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OCCUR THIS EVENING...INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SW TO NE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY WED...SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
MA PIKE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TODAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE AROUND 15Z TUESDAY.
ONSET OF RAIN LATE WED EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ONSET OF RAIN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. POTENTIAL
FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY ESPECIALLY VICINITY
OF THE CT VALLEY. BETTER CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN TSTMS ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. HOWEVER TONIGHT...
EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
ALONG WITH SEAS INTO THE DAY WED. SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH 5-6 FT
EARLY WED MORNING FIRST ON SRN WATERS...THEN ERN WATERS DURING THE
DAY WED. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES WED AS WELL.
THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR EARLY MORNING
WED INTO THE DAY WED...PRIMARILY ON OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWERS AND FOG MAY LEAD TO REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ON WED...THERE IS A THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND REMAINS BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BUT THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS OF 5-7 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS. A LENGTHY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THESE SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ235-237-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE BACK ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PARTS OF THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
610 AM ESTF PRODUCTS UPDATE: RAISED POPS A BIT...EXPANDED AREA FOR
POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS INTO SE PA AND S CENTRAL NJ AND
COOLED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES IN NNJ.
TODAY...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE MODELS FROM NCEP HAVE
AGAIN PREVAILED WHEN COMPARED TO YDYS 00Z/27 CYCLE OF THE
RGEM/GGEM/ECMWF/UKMET. A DECENT SLUG OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TODAY
WITH A N/S BAND OF BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SWEEPING EWD WITHIN
THE GROWING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS PA/NJ. THE 00Z/28 SPC WRF IS TO MY
OVERALL LIKING AND IS MATCHED PRETTY WELL BY THE RAP WHICH DOESNT
GIVE ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TIL VERY LATE THIS AFTN..IF AT
ALL...IN SE PA/MD. SO NO THUNDER IN THE FCST TODAY. THE RAP WAS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SPCWRF WITH ITS RAIN AREA AND OPTED FOR
THE MORE EXPANSIVE SPC WRF DEPICTION OF RAINFALL AND A BAND OF MDT
TO HEAVY EVEN DOWN TO PHL. 12Z HPCQPF HAS SPREAD THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
THE DRIVERS FOR TODAYS RFALL ARE THE RRQ OF A NW FLOW 250 MB 80-90
KT SPEED MAX E OF CAPE COD AND THE INSTABILITY BURST ASSOCIATED
AND DRIVEN BY A 35-40 KT WLY 700MB SPEED MAX (MOISTURE TRANSPORT)
MOVING ACROSS PA WITH SW FLOW AT 850 MB AIDING LIFT. WHILE THE
MOST PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER SHOULD
OCCUR NJ/PA NEAR THE AXIS OF THE 700MB JET SPEED MAX...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A CONVECTIVE THUNDER OUTBREAK NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE
LATE THIS AFTN WHERE IT WILL HEAT UP S OF THE GENERAL SHOWER AREA...
PRODUCING ABOUT 600J OF ML CAPE.
REGARDING MOISTURE: THE PWAT AT 03Z/28 (11PM MONDAY) WAS ABOUT
ONE HALF INCH AND IS MODELED TO INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE
THIS TUE AFTN!
TEMPS WINDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE BLENDED 00Z/28 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE AND
HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM IN NNJ DEPENDING
ON WHETHER ITS RAINING MUCH OF THE TIME BETWEEN 11 AM AND 5 PM.
THE 610 AM UPDATE COOLED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES THERE.
THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL EVOLVE NEWD AND BY 21Z LIE ROUGHLY FROM KDMH
TO KMIV. STRONGER SLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WARMFRONT WHERE IT HEATS UP.
LATEST COSPA...RAP-RUC AS WELL AS 00Z/28 SPC WRF WERE USED TO
ASSIST IN THE FCST AND TIMING!
06Z/28 HPC QPF WAS ALSO APPLIED...ADJUSTED A BIT SWD IN E PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE
ON TONIGHTS SHOWER SCENARIO IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO 00Z/29. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED
TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR A GROUP OF TSTMS...POSSIBLY A SEWD MOVING
CONVECTIVE BAND CROSSING CHES BAY EARLY THIS TUE EVENING AND THEN
ANOTHER EWD MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE 35C KI ACROSS NNJ
AROUND 06Z? THIS LATTER MIGHT BE THE SRN EDGE OF DIMINISHING NEAR
SVR DRIVING EWD FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS DISCUSSED IN THE
0602Z/28 SWODY1.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS ARE 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/28 NCEP MOS MET/MAV
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS AND A SFC HIGH WHICH WILL RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BRING WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST HEAT
WAVE OF THE SEASON MAY RESULT...BUT NO HEAT RELATED FLAGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED WITH THE OVERNIGHT FCST.
WED...THE SHORTWAVE/WARM FRONT FEATURE FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTH/EAST/ A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL AFFECT
THE AREA ACROSS NRN NJ EARLY AND ALSO A FEW SCT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN AREAS. ELSEWHERE...IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH
COOLER TEMPS AT THE BEACHES. WED NIGHT...DRY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. READINGS WILL HOLD NEAR
70 IN METRO PHILADELPHIA.
THU THRU SAT...ESSENTIALLY A DRY FCST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SAT. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NRN MOST PART OF NJ THU EVENING WITH ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS IN THE FCST. INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S THU AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S.
SUN AND MON...THE HEAT WAVE BREAKS LATER SUN AFTER A DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS A
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM CROSSES SRN CANADA AND SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SUNDAY. HIGHS MON WILL MOSTLY BE IN UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY ...SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD KPHL NORTH THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER 17Z....POSSIBLY SPOTTY
IFR CIGS BY 00Z/29. LIGHT WIND TENDING E OR SE THIS AFTN EXCEPT
BECOMING SLY KMIV SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG KRDG KABE KTTN WITH MVFR CONDS
ELSEWHERE IN SC/FOG/HAZE. CHANCE OF A SHOWER. SMALL CHANCE OF A TSTM.
WIND GRADUALLY VEERING FROM SSE TO SW DURING THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FAR NORTH EARLY AND THEN A CHC
FOR AN AFTERNOON TSTM N/W. VFR ELSEWHERE.
THU THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF TODAY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE UPWARDS OF 4 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON OFF DELAWARE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS ON THE OUTER ATLC WATERS OFF DELAWARE MIGHT GUST TO NEAR 25 KT
LATE IN THE DAY. AN SCA WAS ISSUED ONLY WHERE CONFIDENCE REASONABLY
HIGH THAT 5 FT SEAS WILL OCCUR. CONFIDENCE FOR MAX GUSTS REACHING
25 KT IS LESS THAN OUR SEEING 5 FT SEAS OFF DELAWARE TONIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE NJ WATERS MAY NEED AN SCA TONIGHT OR WED BUT
FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WED-FRI...THEN INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS THIS WEEKEND WITH SCA POSSIBLE.
AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEVELOPING FOG BANKS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY...FCST LOW FOR NJ. KEPT THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WIND TO 15 KT OR
LESS THIS AFTN. CERTAINLY STARTS OUT AS A LOW RISK WITH VIRTUALLY
NO WIND OR SWELL TO START THE DAY. DELAWARE WILL ALSO BE A LOW
RISK TODAY.
15 KT IS THE KEY TO THE ONSHORE WIND. BELOW 15 KT FAVORS LOW
RISK.
NO MATTER...EVEN AT LOW RISK...IF YOU DONT SWIM UNDER THE WATCHFUL
EYE OF A LIFE GUARD...YOU COULD BE ASKING FOR TROUBLE. RIP CURRENTS
CAN FORM ANYTIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TIDE CYCLE.
THIS SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND AS IT HEATS UP LATER IN THE WEEK!
ALSO THE SSTS ARE COLD...LOWER 50S (LBI THIS MORNING) VARIABLE UP
TO THE LOWER 60S. SWIM WITH SAFETY IN MIND!
THE DAILY OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY
LOW RISK.
TODAY...LOW OR MDT IN NJ AND LOW DE. DEPENDS ON THE WIND SPEED AND
SWELL GROUP. 2FT 9SEC OR 4FT 6 SEC WILL GIVE MDT IF THE ONSHORE
WIND REACHES 16 KT. IF THE SWELL SIZE OF EITHER GROUP OR THE WIND
IS LESS THAN 16 KT...THE RISK DROPS TO LOW.
WEDNESDAY...1FT 9 SEC OR 4 FT 6 SEC WIND 18013 LOW RISK
THURSDAY...1 FT 8 SEC OR 4 FT 6 SEC WIND 18011 LOW RISK
FRIDAY...1 FT 9 SEC OR 3 FT 5 SEC WIND 18011 LOW RISK
SATURDAY...1FT 9 SEC OR 4FT 5 SEC WIND 21013. LOW RISK
RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 2-8.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ453>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 619
SHORT TERM...DRAG 619
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 619
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 619
RIP CURRENTS...619
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1044 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1044 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. 15Z/10AM RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LINGERING CONVECTION JUST SOUTH
OF THE KILX CWA IN THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA. FURTHER
NORTH...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER EAST OF I-55. THANKS
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...LAPS DATA SHOWS A STABLE LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH CAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 500J/KG. BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST UPSTREAM OVER IOWA/MISSOURI WILL WORK EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
RE-DEVELOPING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS FURTHER NORTH
CLOSER TO SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS SUCH...WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR ALL LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF A
BLOOMINGTON TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
ONGOING CONVECTION AT 12Z WILL MOSTLY PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL
SITES BY 15Z-16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY STORM
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL SITE.
SINCE THE WARM FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTH OF OUR
COUNTIES...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SUSTAINED IN THE 14-18KT RANGE AND GUSTS TO 26-28KT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE NEXT STORM COMPLEX THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WE JUST ACKNOWLEDGED THAT NEXT LINE OF STORMS WITH A
VCTS...AS TIMING IS A TOUGH CALL UNTIL CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
REACHED AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MIDNIGHT IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IF
WINDS WEAKEN BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT ENOUGH FOR FOG TO BECOME AN ISSUE...SO FOG WAS LEFT
OFF THIS SET OF TAFS.
SHIMON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WARM FRONT AT 07Z HAD LIFTED NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH
S/SE WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ADVECTING LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
THE CWA. IMPRESSIVE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING INTO NE MO
HAD A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AT -60C OR LESS PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS MCS WAS BEING MAINTAINED BY A 55-65 KT SW 850MB JET WHICH
TAPPED INTO A 15-17C DEWPOINT POOL OVER THE PLAINS. FIRST FORECAST
ISSUE WILL BE THE IMPACT OF THIS MCS ON THE CWA THIS MORNING.
AWIPS DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL TAKES THE LEADING EDGE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA JUST BEFORE 10Z/5AM. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NSSL WRF
SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AND BOTH SHOW
CONVECTION MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THROUGH 12-13Z. STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEED IN
FROM THE SW TO KEEP HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1.5 IN/HR WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF FORWARD SPEED
SLOWS OR TRAINING DEVELOPS. WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN AREA OF 1K DCAPE SHIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. KIRK IN
NE MO RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 57 KTS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS LINE.
SECONDARY FORECAST CONCERN IS POSSIBLE SVR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON FORMING ALONG REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...AND WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING SFC BASED CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 40KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. OF COURSE QUESTION MARKS
REVOLVE AROUND STABILIZING EFFECTS OF MORNING MCS AND RECOVERY.
SPC HAS EXPANDED DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE AREAS NORTH OF I-70.
FOR TONIGHT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER MCS TO FORM NEAR THE
IA/MO BORDER REGION AND SHIFT EAST AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
CWA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BY WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SHIFTING THE MAIN STORM PATH NORTH. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE MSLP GRADIENT CAUSING SOUTH WINDS
TO GUST AROUND 30 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME SUN SHOULD PRODUCE
A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGS A DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. LEAD SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH IN THIS FLOW WILL ACT
ON A HIGH P/W ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...HELPING EASE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS MORE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>053-061.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
645 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WARM FRONT AT 07Z HAD LIFTED NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH
S/SE WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ADVECTING LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
THE CWA. IMPRESSIVE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING INTO NE MO
HAD A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AT -60C OR LESS PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS MCS WAS BEING MAINTAINED BY A 55-65 KT SW 850MB JET WHICH
TAPPED INTO A 15-17C DEWPOINT POOL OVER THE PLAINS. FIRST FORECAST
ISSUE WILL BE THE IMPACT OF THIS MCS ON THE CWA THIS MORNING.
AWIPS DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL TAKES THE LEADING EDGE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA JUST BEFORE 10Z/5AM. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NSSL WRF
SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AND BOTH SHOW
CONVECTION MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THROUGH 12-13Z. STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEED IN
FROM THE SW TO KEEP HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1.5 IN/HR WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF FORWARD SPEED
SLOWS OR TRAINING DEVELOPS. WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN AREA OF 1K DCAPE SHIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. KIRK IN
NE MO RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 57 KTS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS LINE.
SECONDARY FORECAST CONCERN IS POSSIBLE SVR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON FORMING ALONG REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...AND WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING SFC BASED CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 40KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. OF COURSE QUESTION MARKS
REVOLVE AROUND STABILIZING EFFECTS OF MORNING MCS AND RECOVERY.
SPC HAS EXPANDED DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE AREAS NORTH OF I-70.
FOR TONIGHT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER MCS TO FORM NEAR THE
IA/MO BORDER REGION AND SHIFT EAST AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
CWA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BY WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SHIFTING THE MAIN STORM PATH NORTH. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE MSLP GRADIENT CAUSING SOUTH WINDS
TO GUST AROUND 30 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME SUN SHOULD PRODUCE
A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGS A DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. LEAD SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH IN THIS FLOW WILL ACT
ON A HIGH P/W ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...HELPING EASE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS MORE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
ONGOING CONVECTION AT 12Z WILL MOSTLY PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL
SITES BY 15Z-16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY STORM
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL SITE.
SINCE THE WARM FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTH OF OUR
COUNTIES...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SUSTAINED IN THE 14-18KT RANGE AND GUSTS TO 26-28KT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE NEXT STORM COMPLEX THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WE JUST ACKNOWLEDGED THAT NEXT LINE OF STORMS WITH A
VCTS...AS TIMING IS A TOUGH CALL UNTIL CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
REACHED AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MIDNIGHT IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IF
WINDS WEAKEN BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT ENOUGH FOR FOG TO BECOME AN ISSUE...SO FOG WAS LEFT
OFF THIS SET OF TAFS.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047>053-061.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1110 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS
WELL AS PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DECENT CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL WAVE OVER IOWA THAT IS GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD.
SYNOPTIC SCALE UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV WILL SPREAD OVER OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ENCOUNTERING A RATHER MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEGREE OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY RECOVERY REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE THOUGH. REMNANTS OF MORNING CONVECTION OVER ILLINOIS
ARE ALREADY IMPINGING ON OUR WESTERN BORDER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER BLANKETING THE CWA. A FEW THIN SPOTS SEEN IN LATEST VIS
IMAGERY BUT OUR CWA REMAINS STABLE SO FAR. 12Z RAP CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THIS WILL CHANGE THOUGH AS FILTERED INSOLATION COMBINES WITH
GOOD WAA TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WAY
OVERDONE BUT MODIFIED SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1500 J/KG OVER OUR EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH 700MB WINDS
APPROACHING 50 KTS...THIS WARRANTS CONTINUED THREAT...MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS IN THE 18-00Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED
TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BUT DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WARM FRONT MOVG NORTH ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS WERE MOVG EAST ALONG THE FRONT. FIRST SHOULD BE MOVG OUT
OF ERN PORTION OF CWA AROUND 12Z WHILE UPSTREAM MCS IN IA MAY
REACH THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME. LIKELY WILL BE SOME DIURNAL
WKNG OF THIS MCS HWVR SO SOME DOUBTS REMAIN IF IT WILL REACH OUR
AREA. SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS UPSTREAM IS FCST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN THROUGH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY
THAT TIME. SOME WK CAPPING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
OVERCOME BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF CWA. COMBINATION OF 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHRTWV WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE
AREA MAY RESULT IN TSTMS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NRN PORTION OF CWA CLOSER TO WARM FRONT AND SHRTWV FORCING.
DESPITE EXPECTED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY... FAIRLY STRONG
GRADIENT MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE L80S OVER MOST OF
THE CWA WITH CONTD S-SW FLOW TONIGHT RESULTING IN MINS ONLY IN THE
M-U60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
ONGOING CONVECTION MAY BE LINGERING ALONG MODIFIED FRONTAL OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...LEFT A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY...CAUSING LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO INCREASE AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY 850 MB TEMPS OF 15C TO
17C. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROF BECOMING
POSITIVELY TILTED BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE TWO ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...THE FIRST AS A SHORT WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL GIVEN
JET ENERGY RACING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS WEEKEND. HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS LATE THIS WEEK GIVEN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE. WPC DAY 4/5 SUPPORTS 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN LATE THIS WEEK GIVEN MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING
AS MCS MOVG OUT OF NE INDIANA. UPSTREAM MCS OVER WRN IL WAS WKNG
AS STRONGER FORCING APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING NORTH INTO SRN WI AND
BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE SW OVER MO. JUST FCST TEMPO -SHRA AT SBN
WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING. AMDAR
SOUNDING FROM FWA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING RATHER STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO SFC RESULTING IN 15-25KT
WINDS BY LATE MORNING. SCT TS EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER NRN INDIANA
THIS AFTN AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND WK SHRTWV CURRENTLY OVER IA
MOVES ENE ACROSS NRN INDIANA. CONTD WITH A TEMPO TS AT BOTH
TERMINALS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTN. TS ALSO PSBL
IN THE AREA TONIGHT BUT KEPT OUT OF TAFS ATTM DUE TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING OVERNIGHT TO
PREVENT BR FROM FORMING DESPITE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...KG
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
553 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
RENEWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS
REQUIRED A REVISION IN THE NEAR TERM /TODAY/ FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PROPAGATION OF THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE INTO THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 3KM HRRR AND
12KM NAM-WRF SUGGEST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE PENNYRILE ALSO SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AS WELL.
CLOUD COVER...WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO BEEN
MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STORM SCALE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER ALONE WILL LIKELY SHAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS WITH
THE ORIGINAL PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MO
OVERNIGHT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH BEFORE IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BORDER COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE 3KM HRRR AND THE 13KM RAP GUIDANCE. PREVIOUSLY
INTRODUCED /WITH THE MONDAY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE/ SOME CHANCE
POPS/WEATHER IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PENNYRILE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE SIGNAL HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
WITH THIS PACKAGE. DAYSHIFT WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CAPPING ALOFT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE BRIEFLY HOLDS IN PLACE
WHILE THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
IN ORIENTATION STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW. THE PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM THE
WEST AS AN NORTHWESTWARD TILTED SURFACE-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS /MAINLY IN
THE THE DAKOTAS/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
57 IN ILLINOIS...INTERSTATE 55 IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ALONG
INTERSTATE 64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AFTER 9 AM CDT TODAY...PERSISTING
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LOWERED THRESHOLD FOR
WINDS ON AREA LAKES AND THE SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS
ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF MOST OF THE WATERWAYS IN THE AREA...DECIDED
TO POST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
RETURNING TO RAIN CHANCES...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS FOCUSED LIFT AND
NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY...INTRODUCED OR KEPT POPS IN PLACE FOR
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA /MAINLY
SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL...PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY/ FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POPS ARE INTRODUCED IN A STAIR
STEP FASHION...STARTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN RIPLEY/BUTLER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MO...GRADUALLY WORKING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN IL/PURCHASE
AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN /GEM/ GUIDANCE
SEEMS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS/WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AREAL UNCERTAINTY OF THESE
POPS WITH THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...USED A BLENDED...BUT
MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN SPREADING THE POPS/WEATHER NORTHEAST
WITH TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...A BLOCKING
H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN PUTTING OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS DO SHOW MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT H7 TEMPS REMAIN AOB 10C. EVEN AT THAT THE BIG QUESTION IS
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH CAPPING TO SHUT DOWN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED SO KEPT THEM IN PLACE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM ACTUALLY CROSSES OUR
CWA. AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AOA NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WITH THE LATEST REVISION TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST...WILL LIKELY NEED
TO ADD SOME RAIN TO AT LEAST THE KCGI TAF THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR ALL THE WFO
PAH TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. ANY RAIN ACTIVITY IN OR NEAR THE TAF
SITES SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR AFTER 20Z-21Z TODAY. SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM
THE 180-220 DEGREE DIRECTIONAL RANGE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE
PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A BERMUDA
HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THOUGH A BULK OF THE PRECIP THIS MRNG AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE COMBINATION OF ANY GOOD
AMNT OF CLEARING...SLY WINDS INCREASING DEWPOINTS...TEMPS
GRADUALLY CLIMBING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD KICK OFF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EVIDENCE OF
THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG AND E OF I-95 FROM DC TO BALT MID
MRNG...W/ A BATCH OF CELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
AND PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INCREASE...THIS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONGER CELLS - THOUGH ONLY A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED AT BEST.
LOCAL GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF SOLUTIONS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE
OR TWO OF WEAK INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG AND E OF I-95 THRU LATE
MRNG...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LARGELY CLEAR OUT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THIS WILL BE GOOD FOR THE BUILDING UP OF
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH
80...AND ALONG W/ DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
L60S...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE AFTN/EVE. THE
LOCALIZED UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE NJ COAST
LATER TODAY - AND WHAT IS ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVITY
TODAY - WILL SKIRT THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTN AND
EVENTUALLY PULL ANY EARLIER CONVECTION OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE WARM FNT N OF THE AREA TNGT THERE COULD BE ISOLD EVE
CNVCTN...THEN M CLDY SKIES. A MILD NGT W/ LOWS IN THE 60S...M50S
IN THE HIGHLANDS...A70 IN THE CITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WHILE BERMUDA
HIGH SETS UP OVER THE ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THIS
SEASONS FIRST HEAT WAVE. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TERRAIN CIRCULATION
COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...BUT THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. THEREFORE...T-STORMS ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHO M CLDY VFR CONDS TDA/TNGT. ISOLD TSTMS PSBL THIS AFT/EVE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUBVFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TNGT. ONLY THREAT WOULD BE AFTN/EVE
TSTMS..W/ THE BEST CHCS IN THE NRN CHES BAY.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP OVER THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS WILL COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA...BUT FORECASTED GUSTS ARE CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...WOODY!/BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1018 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED...BRINGING A
RETURN TO SUMMERTIME HEAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY BY THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...BEAUTIFUL DAY BEGINNING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AS COMBINATION OF BERMUDA HIGH AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE COMBINE TO
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CLEARLY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ROTATING
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY...FROM TEXAS TO IOWA TO PENNSYLVANIA. SE OF
THIS BOUNDARY...BULGING THICKNESSES WILL CAP THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER...VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPS...LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT PARCELS WILL
BECOME BUOYANT THIS AFTN AND RISE TOWARDS THE CONVECTIVE LID. WHILE
THIS HAPPENS...THE ENTIRE COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM THANKS TO INCREASING
MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING...SO IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL WARMING TO DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS
CAN DEVELOP TODAY. CURRENTLY...ONLY THE HRRR DEPICTS ANY SHOWERS
TODAY...FOCUSED ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. WHILE IT IS
LOGICAL THAT ONLY THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
STRONG ENOUGH TODAY TO PUSH THROUGH THE LID (HENCE WHY THE TERM CAP
IS NOT BEING USED)...THIS MODEL HAS BEEN OVER-AGGRESSIVE THE PAST
FEW DAYS. HAVE INHERITED JUST-BELOW-THRESHOLD POP...AND CHOOSE TO
LEAVE UNCHANGED FOR NOW. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTN...BUT WILL HANDLE THIS WITH NEAR-TERM UPDATES AS REQUIRED.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TODAY WILL ALSO BE NOTICED AS GRADIENT IS
JUST A BIT STRONGER AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE WITHIN THE RESULTANT THIS AFTN...WHERE WIND GUSTS TO
20 MPH WILL BE FREQUENT FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER
SUNSET BENEATH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BUT
CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...UP TO 15 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION...WILL KEEP MINS ELEVATED TONIGHT AS THEY WILL FALL ONLY
INTO THE MID 60S. HAVE LEFT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS SINCE
CROSSOVER TEMPS MAY BE MET TONIGHT THANKS TO LONG-DURATION MOIST
ADVECTION OFF THE OCEAN TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WARM MOIST
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE 60S.
ALTHOUGH MORE HUMID SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...LOCALIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
THIS WILL KEEP VERY DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
BASICALLY ABOVE 4K FT. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL ONLY BE AROUND AN
INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S
MOST PLACES DURING THE DAY EXCEPT COOLER AT THE BEACHES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. MAY SEE SOME CU DEVELOP ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH DAY BUT OTHERWISE
WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIP TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOSING ITS
GRIP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD THE WAY TO INCREASED CHC
OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING ALOFT WOULD
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CU BUILDING IN CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY LATE MONDAY MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD AND
ALONG THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S AND DAY TIME HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP US IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOG WAS LIGHTER THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED CU ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES. SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR FOG THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN
SOME TWEAKS TO SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...THEN DISSIPATE MID TO LATE EVE. S TO SSE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCES...SUSTAINED AT UP TO 15 KT AND ON THE GUSTY SIDE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. NO SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL JETTING NOTED
FOR TONIGHT AND SO WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE LATE EVE AND
OVERNIGHT. SE SWELL WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS PERIOD...
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT...LARGELY THE RESULT OF AN 8 TO 9
SECOND SE SWELL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY RELAXED WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS BUT SPIKING UP A BIT IN
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GRADUAL BUILD FROM 1 TO 3 FT UP
TO 2 TO 4 FT IN PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL AROUND THE HIGH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY RELAXED WITH WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY
SUNDAY. THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL BUILD SEA GRADUALLY UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS AND CLOSER TO 2 FT NEAR SHORE.
WILL SEE SPIKE IN WINDS AND SLIGHT CHOP NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON
IN SEA BREEZE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
15 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ND...MOVING INTO CANADA AROUND 20 MPH. ANY ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO EASTERN ND AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS.
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...DID DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALL
OTHER AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUN TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. OVERALL...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE FA AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
IS CAUSING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE UPPER
WAVE. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
STILL EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO COMBINE WITH UPPER JET STREAK
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
THERE ARE A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. WILL KEEP THE ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NE FA. HRRR/RAP/4-KM WRF MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEATING COMBINES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
OTHERWISE...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS RIDGING AFFECTS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE HAVE A SIMILAR IDEA...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED
MODEL AS PER THE PMDHMD. FOR WED NIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SURGE OF INSTABILITY AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...THE ECMWF IS AROUND 40 KNOTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...AND CAN IMAGINE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...BUT NOT AN OUTBREAK SCENARIO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. THESE CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVE
INTO THE REGION. IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL CLOSE OFF WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
BE WHERE EVER THIS BOUNDARY STALLS. HOWEVER...PWATS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED (NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET)...AND WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
VALLEY.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF 500MB
CLOSED LOW AT 12 FRI CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND. THE
HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITHIN THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AND
WHERE IT STALLS. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO STALL IT NORTH OF
THE CWFA WHEREAS THE GFS STALLS IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE POSSIBLE.
THE DRIER SOLNS WOULD BRING THE DRY SLOT ACROSS THE CWFA ON
FRIDAY. ALL SOLNS BRING DEFORMATION RAIN BANDS THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...GFS FASTER TO EXIT SAT AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY 500MB RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
QUITE WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
BAND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HOURS AND GRADUALLY SCATTER AND/OR CLEAR FROM THE WEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PEMBINA...WALSH...
AND EASTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES THROUGH TODAY.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO
1.50 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 OR MORE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...AND COULD HAVE IMPACTS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE
IT FALLS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI/TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE FA AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
IS CAUSING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE UPPER
WAVE. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
STILL EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO COMBINE WITH UPPER JET STREAK
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
THERE ARE A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. WILL KEEP THE ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NE FA. HRRR/RAP/4-KM WRF MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEATING COMBINES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
OTHERWISE...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS RIDGING AFFECTS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE HAVE A SIMILAR IDEA...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED
MODEL AS PER THE PMDHMD. FOR WED NIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SURGE OF INSTABILITY AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...THE ECMWF IS AROUND 40 KNOTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...AND CAN IMAGINE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...BUT NOT AN OUTBREAK SCENARIO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. THESE CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVE
INTO THE REGION. IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL CLOSE OFF WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
BE WHERE EVER THIS BOUNDARY STALLS. HOWEVER...PWATS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED (NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET)...AND WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
VALLEY.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF 500MB
CLOSED LOW AT 12 FRI CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND. THE
HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITHIN THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AND
WHERE IT STALLS. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO STALL IT NORTH OF
THE CWFA WHEREAS THE GFS STALLS IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE POSSIBLE.
THE DRIER SOLNS WOULD BRING THE DRY SLOT ACROSS THE CWFA ON
FRIDAY. ALL SOLNS BRING DEFORMATION RAIN BANDS THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...GFS FASTER TO EXIT SAT AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY 500MB RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
QUITE WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
BAND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HOURS AND GRADUALLY SCATTER AND/OR CLEAR FROM THE WEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PEMBINA...WALSH...AND EASTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES THROUGH TODAY.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO
1.50 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 OR MORE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...AND COULD HAVE IMPACTS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE
IT FALLS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI/TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1039 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT EXITING NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
HEAT/HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON TO END OF THE WEEK. NO ORGANIZED
FRONTS IN VICINITY UNTIL WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...INGESTED RECENT OBS. OVERALL FCST GENERALLY ON
TRACK. TWEAKED POPS AND SKY JUST A BIT TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...INCLUDING LOWERING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NE ZONES
AND INCREASING POPS A TAD WITH THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER.
AT 10Z ON THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT...SHALLOW SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW
NORTH OF AREA.
A MID LEVEL 700 MB TROF AXIS WAS DEPICTED ON RAP AND VAD WINDS NR
ILN TO SDF AT 08Z...THEN CMH TO LEX AT 10Z. WEAK SUPPORT ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE CROSSES OUR NORTHERN ZONES 12Z THRU 15Z. SO HAVE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING FOR A LIGHT SHOWER.
YET...RAP FORECASTING SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THAT VORT AXIS DRAGGING
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM AND GFS ON THEIR 00Z
RUNS...SHOW MID LEVEL WARMING AT AROUND 8 TO 10 THSD FT TRYING TO
FORM A CAP. SO WILL ONLY LEAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER.
THE WARM UP STARTS IN EARNEST TODAY. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE LINGERS OVERNIGHT...SO PATCHES OF 4 TO 7
THSD FT CLOUDS MAY STILL BE HANGING AROUND LATE TONIGHT. OF
COURSE...THIS CAUSES US HEADACHES TRYING TO FIGURE THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WHICH BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A BIT EACH DAY. THE
RIDGE STARTS BREAKING DOWN BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. PRECIP WISE...HAVE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE INSTABILITY...AND ALSO INCLUDED SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN
SE OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL A BIT AND A 500MB
RIPPLE STREAMS ACROSS OHIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM...GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE
DOWN FASTER ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
EARLY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER
THE SE STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NOT ALLOWING FOR FROPA ACROSS OUR CWA
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MORE LINEAR SOLUTION OF
THE GFS AND EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT ON ECMWF TIMING...ZONAL FLOW
APPEARS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH OUT TO DAY 6 AND 7.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY CEILINGS AT 6 TO 8 THSD FT 15Z WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA. VSBY MAY LOWER BRIEFLY TO 6 OR 5 MILES.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL 14Z THROUGH 23Z
WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FORM 18Z TODAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. 00Z NAM
AND GFS TRY TO WARM HE MID LEVELS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT MSL JUST ENOUGH
TO FORM CAP. YET...A WEAK VORT MAX AT 500 MB AND INCREASING SURFACE
HEATING...HAS US STILL MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION.
MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE LINGERS TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE.
SO PATCHES OF 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH
CIRRUS ABOVE. SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE MAY FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS VCNTY EKN FOR THE 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY NOT FORM WITH
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL WARMING/CAP.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PUSH
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
POSITION FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH NOW AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EXTREME NW OH AND THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. GOING WITH THE HRRR AND THE 4KM
WRF NMM MODEL. WATCHING TO SEE HOW MUCH FILTERED SUNSHINE WE GET...THAT
WILL BE KEY. NW OH IS GETTING SOME NOW BUT THAT SHOULD BE GOING
AWAY BY NOON AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE MAY STAY SOUTH OF
THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE BATCH OF STEADY RAIN WILL BE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS IS THE NEXT CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW OH...WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM OF
THAT. WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WARM FRONT ACTIVE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BIG QUESTION TODAY WILL BE HOW WELL WILL WE
DESTABILIZE. AS PER SPC DISCUSSION...REMNANT MCV FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION/SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE KICKER FOR STORMS TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED AS WE ARE RUNNING 2 TO NEARLY 3 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL SINCE MARCH 1ST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT
OVER YESTERDAY. WENT CLOSER TO GUIDANCE...BUT STUCK JUST A BIT
COOLER. UPDATE INCLUDES TWEAKS TO VERY NEAR TERM PRECIP
CHANCES...TIMING THE BATCH FROM NW OHIO IN TO THE AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES END UP SOUNDING VAGUE WITH CHANCES FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO CLEAR US FROM A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING ANY OF THIS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
YET. WILL CONTINUE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY MILD NIGHTS COMING
UP WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS WILL INCH UP INTO THE 80S...WITH
MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY
AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS. MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FRIDAY NIGHT FROM
THE WEST AS ENERGY SHEARS OUT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...DON`T SEE MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER...THE SITUATION
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REPEATED HEAVY RAINS IN SOME LOCATIONS SO
THINGS COULD CHANGE LOCALLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW FAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE CAN GET THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN POSTING QPF AND INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHWEST OHIO
ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK TEMPERATURES A BIT BY MONDAY...A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...FOR FEAR OF CLOUDS AND A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE SHOWERS. THE CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY REACH NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT WILL LIMIT IT IN THE TAFS THIS MORNING
BUT HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ARE A GOOD BET ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT UNTIL
THEY LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH...CROSSING LAKE
ERIE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL VEER FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
THEN THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BUILD THIS WEEK. THE AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WARM. THE STABILITY OVER THE COOLER LAKE WILL KEEP
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE ALL WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
628 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT EXITING NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
HEAT/HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON TO END OF THE WEEK. NO ORGANIZED
FRONTS IN VICINITY UNTIL WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 10Z ON THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT...SHALLOW SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW
NORTH OF AREA.
A MID LEVEL 700 MB TROF AXIS WAS DEPICTED ON RAP AND VAD WINDS NR
ILN TO SDF AT 08Z...THEN CMH TO LEX AT 10Z. WEAK SUPPORT ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE CROSSES OUR NORTHERN ZONES 12Z THRU 15Z. SO HAVE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING FOR A LIGHT SHOWER.
YET...RAP FORECASTING SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THAT VORT AXIS DRAGGING
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM AND GFS ON THEIR 00Z
RUNS...SHOW MID LEVEL WARMING AT AROUND 8 TO 10 THSD FT TRYING TO
FORM A CAP. SO WILL ONLY LEAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER.
THE WARM UP STARTS IN EARNEST TODAY. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE LINGERS OVERNIGHT...SO PATCHES OF 4 TO 7
THSD FT CLOUDS MAY STILL BE HANGING AROUND LATE TONIGHT. OF
COURSE...THIS CAUSES US HEADACHES TRYING TO FIGURE THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WHICH BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A BIT EACH DAY. THE
RIDGE STARTS BREAKING DOWN BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. PRECIP WISE...HAVE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE INSTABILITY...AND ALSO INCLUDED SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN
SE OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL A BIT AND A 500MB
RIPPLE STREAMS ACROSS OHIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM...GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE
DOWN FASTER ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
EARLY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER
THE SE STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NOT ALLOWING FOR FROPA ACROSS OUR CWA
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MORE LINEAR SOLUTION OF
THE GFS AND EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT ON ECMWF TIMING...ZONAL FLOW
APPEARS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH OUT TO DAY 6 AND 7.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY CEILINGS AT 6 TO 8 THSD FT 15Z WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA. VSBY MAY LOWER BRIEFLY TO 6 OR 5 MILES.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL 14Z THROUGH 23Z
WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FORM 18Z TODAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. 00Z NAM
AND GFS TRY TO WARM HE MID LEVELS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT MSL JUST ENOUGH
TO FORM CAP. YET...A WEAK VORT MAX AT 500 MB AND INCREASING SURFACE
HEATING...HAS US STILL MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION.
MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE LINGERS TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE.
SO PATCHES OF 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH
CIRRUS ABOVE. SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE MAY FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS VCNTY EKN FOR THE 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY NOT FORM WITH
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL WARMING/CAP.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1049 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS
OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR TODAY.
WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS IS FOR NOW...DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER. WIND GUSTS HAVE SO FAR REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLD...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING FOR THAT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING
WITH PROFILER NETWORK ANALYZING A SWLY 55-65KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ORIENTED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
STORMS OVER CENTRAL MO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACK-BUILDING ALONG JET
AXIS TOWARD NW ARKANSAS. ALSO AN APPARENT WAVE EMBEDDED IN WSW
FLOW ALOFT TO OUR WEST. LOCAL MODEL AND HRRR LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO
NAM SOLUTION OF BREAKING OUT PRECIP ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING AND MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE
MORNING PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME STRONGLY CAPPED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LATER THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY
LINE FAR TO OUR WEST.
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH IN NE OKLAHOMA...BUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY IT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. MIXING MAY ALSO BE
HAMPERED A BIT BY CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AS
STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ONSHORE SLIDES EAST. THIS WILL GIVE
DRY LINE STORMS TO OUR WEST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETTER
SUPPORT TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN OK AND
POSSIBLY FAR NW ARKANSAS. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT EARLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER THU AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER JET IN
FAVORABLE POSITION...THIS PERIOD WILL OFFER GREATEST THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST WIND PROFILES
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER.
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF PLEASANTLY COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
634 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH MCV TRACKING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE OVER OUR CWA...AND THUS AS
EXPECTED THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY IS THUS
EXPECTED...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. CONCERNED ABOUT
LOW STRATUS AND FOG LINGERING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
THOUGH. FLOW BECOMES PRETTY WEAK TODAY...WITH NOT MUCH OF A PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THUS STRATUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER. THESE HIGHS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE NEWER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. LOOKING AT READINGS AROUND
70 SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ADJUSTMENTS UP OR
DOWN AREA LIKELY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER EVOLUTION...THUS ANOTHER
LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...ADVECTING IN RICH THETAE AIR AND HIGH
PWATS. MEANWHILE IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS
ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND THIS EVOLUTION
IS SUPPORTED BY ALMOST ALL HI RES GUIDANCE. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AS DESPITE THE THETAE
ADVECTION...WE DRY OUT ENOUGH TODAY THAT WE DONT QUITE COMPLETELY
RECOVER IN TIME. HOWEVER MAY SEE THE LINE OF STORMS MAKE IT INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 03Z BEFORE IT DOES DISSIPATE...AND THUS
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH THAT ACTIVITY.
EVENTUALLY THE CONTINUED THETAE ADVECTION BECOMES ENOUGH TO SATURATE
US ENOUGH AND DEVELOP ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THUS THOUGHT IS SHOWERS
AND STORMS START BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SEEING MUCH TOO MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
SATURATED THIN CAPE PROFILE. HOWEVER WIND FIELDS ARE STRONGER...THUS
A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ANYTIME
WEDNESDAY. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ENDS UP GOING. BUT HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO FAVOR MUCH OF THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WITH
CONVECTION CONTINUOUSLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OR EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN WIND. GIVEN THE
TRAINING POTENTIAL AND HIGH PWATS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DAY WITH
AN ELEVATED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WE MAY SEE A BREAK FOR A PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS THE TRAINING WAA CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER ATTENTION THEN TURNS YO OUR WEST AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS WITH THIS WAVE...AND THEN MOVE INTO OUR CWA ANYTIME
FROM THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE TOO HIGH...BUT WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TI SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUS THINKING OUR GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT MAY END UP BEING WITH THIS ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING
OR NIGHT. A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IN OUR WEST...BUT TIMING
SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION WOULD PROBABLY BE LINEAR BY THE TIME IT
IMPACTS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH STRONG WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WEDNESDAY...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE. THUS BY
THURSDAY THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...AND DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. THUS SEVERE
THREAT ON THURSDAY SHOULD END UP SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. BY LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH GOING ON
ACROSS OUR AREA. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT THIS AGAIN DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. AREAS THAT SEE
SUN COULD REACH THE 80S BOTH DAYS...WHILE 60S ARE A POSSIBILITY
WHERE CLOUDS HOLD TOUGH. /
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FINALLY
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD ND AND MN LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS MEANS QUIETER WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH ONE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE CHANCES OF ANY ONE LOCATION
GETTING A WETTING RAIN IS FAIRLY REMOTE. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW LIFTING
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER DOWN PROMISING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY AND MONDAY...70S SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS EXISTS EARLY TODAY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. CURRENTLY JUST BEFORE 12Z...KSUX IS SHOWING
VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WHAT WIND THEY HAVE APPEARS TO BE GOING
EASTERLY AND THE CITY WEBCAMS LOOK VERY SOUPY. THEREFORE AM
CONCERNED THAT THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THAT
LOCATION SHORTLY. SO HEDGED SOME STRATUS IN THERE BEGINNING AT
14Z...AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ARRIVAL OR LACK OF ARRIVAL OF
THESE POOR CONDITIONS. SIMILARLY AT KHON...THEY ARE VFR. THEIR
WEBCAM CONFIRMS SOME PRETTY SOLID VFR AT THE MOMENT. BUT WITH
MITCHELL AND BROOKING SD SEEING LIFR CEILINGS...AM ALSO A BIT
WORRIED THAT KHON LATER THIS MORNING COULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE IFR TO LOWER MVFR CATEGORY. KFSD IS SOLIDLY
LIFR. VARIOUS MODELS POINT TO A CLEARING TREND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A SCOURING OUT OF THE STRATUS. THEREFORE TRENDED THE TAF SITES
TOWARD VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATCH FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-021-022.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHENARD/MJF
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1056 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK BUT WILL WORK TO KEEP TEMPS IN
THE 70S FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOW THIS AFFECTS AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION CHANCES REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AND THE CAP MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. THAT
SAID...IF WE GET A FEW HOURS OF HEATING...IT SHOULD NOT BE THAT
BIG OF AN ISSUE. THIS WOULD PUT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE THE
GREATEST HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
RADAR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS SITUATION EVOLVES. THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS AND EXPAND POPS
FARTHER EAST. OTHERWISE...MOST CHANGES WERE RELATIVELY MINOR.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS BEEN RATHER SPORADIC THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL HANDLE MVFR
CIGS WITH TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING WITH PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
FORMED WEST OF THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL TO BE AFFECT BY THIS ACTIVITY IS KSJT AND HAVE INCLUDED
A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER UNTIL 14Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. NORTHERN
TERMINALS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION BUT DUE TO TIMING
AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS
RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADD POPS THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE TRANS PECOS REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY AND EXPANDS IT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND THOUGH
BUT DID ADD MENTIONABLE POPS THIS MORNING MAINLY WEST OF A
THROCKMORTON...TO MILLERSVIEW...TO OZONA LINE. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THROUGH TONIGHT..
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. LEE
SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN
TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE DRYLINE WILL SETUP
ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS
WERE ORIENTED NORTH AND WEST OF A HASKEL...TO SAN ANGELO...TO
OZONA LINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.
24
LONG TERM...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE ONGOING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...FROM ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ...I BELIEVE THAT
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AND
MIGRATE TOWARD OUR WESTERN BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 50
KNOTS...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AND LOWS NEAR 70. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SEND A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY
TROUGH SUNDAY. SLOW MOVING...LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS LIKE THIS ONE
HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL...AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...BUT THE
DETAILS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DANIELS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 86 71 85 71 91 / 30 30 30 30 10
SAN ANGELO 88 72 88 70 94 / 20 20 30 20 10
JUNCTION 86 73 85 72 90 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
712 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.AVIATION...
INITIAL SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH PERMIAN BASIN SEEM
UNLIKELY TO SPREAD INTO EITHER TAF SITE...AT LEAST NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHOULD THESE SHOWERS STAY AWAY...THE CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE BASICALLY FOLLOWS THIS PLAN RETAINING BEST
THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE DAY. A NEAR MVFR STRATUS LAYER IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD CLOSE TO KCDS BY LATE MORNING AS WELL...
THOUGH CEILING REMAINS DOUBTFUL. LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR WITH THIS WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHILE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN DECIDEDLY MIXED REGARDING HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION LATER THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST WRF/NAM APPEARS QUITE SHOWERY BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH WANING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING OWING TO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHILE THE LATEST RAP ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS
THE RELEASE OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY UNTIL AFTER NOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
EXPLODE ALONG THE SURFACE DRY-LINE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WHAT SEEMS CERTAIN IS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD UP INTO THE AREA LATER IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THEREFORE...WE REMAIN LESS CONFIDENT HOW THIS MAY IMPACT REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ENERGY LATER TODAY. WE HAVE SOMEWHAT SPLIT BETWEEN THE
POSSIBLE CHOICES...HOLDING CHANCES LOW THIS MORNING THOUGH RETAINING
MODEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAXIMUM POTENTIAL ENERGY AND SHEAR PROFILES LATER TODAY CERTAINLY
SUGGEST OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE OR EVEN
VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WHILE HELICITY LEVELS AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRY-LINE WOULD OFFER ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL WITH
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3000-6000 FEET. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL WITH OUR REDUCED CONFIDENCE...WE THINK IT MAY BE BEST
TO LEAN A BIT TOWARDS THE WORSER OUTCOME UNTIL CLARITY IMPROVES. WE
INCREASED CHANCES SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...RETAINING SEVERE
MENTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MINOR CHANGES FOR MAJORITY
OF GRID FIELDS. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW FAR THE DRYLINE WILL
MOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER
WEST TEXAS MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THIS POINT...WEST TEXAS WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FAVORABLE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL JET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE LIFT
BEGINNING EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BECOME UNCAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH PROGGED CAPE VALUES CRESTING AT 3000-3500 J/KG. INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING SUPERCELLS.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE THE FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION
WITH SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY NORMAL TO THE DRYLINE.
SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY KEEPING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MOSTLY DRY. BY LATE ON
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA
WHICH MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE EXISTS A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THE
MOMENT IN REGARDS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT.
NONETHELESS...HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A POSSIBILITY WHEREVER THE FRONT
DOES BECOME STATIONARY. JDV
FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH
PLAINS BOTH AFTERNOONS. DEEP MIXING WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EVEN
FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY SPAWNING A LARGER CRITICAL AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 65 92 58 93 / 20 30 20 0 0
TULIA 89 67 89 59 92 / 40 30 20 10 0
PLAINVIEW 88 67 90 61 94 / 40 30 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 91 68 93 61 95 / 40 30 20 10 0
LUBBOCK 88 68 92 65 95 / 40 30 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 94 68 93 60 96 / 30 30 20 0 0
BROWNFIELD 91 69 93 63 96 / 40 30 20 10 0
CHILDRESS 89 69 86 69 95 / 40 30 40 30 10
SPUR 87 69 88 68 95 / 40 30 30 20 10
ASPERMONT 88 71 87 72 94 / 40 30 40 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
544 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADD POPS THIS MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE TRANS PECOS REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY AND EXPANDS IT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND THOUGH
BUT DID ADD MENTIONABLE POPS THIS MORNING MAINLY WEST OF A
THROCKMORTON...TO MILLERSVIEW...TO OZONA LINE. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
SHORT TERM...
.THROUGH TONIGHT..
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. LEE
SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN
TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE DRYLINE WILL SETUP ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE THIS EVENING AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS WERE ORIENTED
NORTH AND WEST OF A HASKEL...TO SAN ANGELO...TO OZONA LINE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.
24
LONG TERM...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A
FEW STORMS COULD BE ONGOING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FROM
ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ...I BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AND MIGRATE TOWARD OUR WESTERN BORDER BY
MID AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. A FAIRLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 50
KNOTS...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AND LOWS NEAR 70. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND
A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SATURDAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY TROUGH SUNDAY.
SLOW MOVING...LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS LIKE THIS ONE HAVE HAD A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
STALL...AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...BUT THE DETAILS
SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DANIELS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 88 71 85 71 91 / 20 30 30 30 10
SAN ANGELO 89 72 88 70 94 / 20 20 30 20 10
JUNCTION 87 73 85 72 90 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1011 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A FAINT IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS FROM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
COMBINES WITH HEATING AND RETURNING DEEPER MOISTURE. MODIFIED
MORNING SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MODEST CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST ALTHOUGH APPEARS FOCUS LACKING HEADING EAST.
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SHRA/TSRA UNZIPPING ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FROM SW TO NE AS AIDED BY DIFF HEATING EARLY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY LATER ON.
SIMILAR DEPICTION FROM THE RNK-WRF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE LATEST
NAM SUPPORT AT LEAST A SCATTERING OF POPS BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS
NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT AND PERHAPS LATER OUTFLOW. WILL
KEEP IN SLIGHT POPS ESLW FOR A POP UP STORM OR TWO WITH LEAST
COVERAGE SE. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LOOK TO COME FROM PULSE
NATURE STORMS IF CONVECTION CAN GET DEEP ENOUGH GIVEN STEEP
LAPSES AND LOW WET BULB ZERO VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING
THICKNESS OFF RAOBS SHOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S
WEST GIVEN INCREASING INSOLATION AFTER EARLY MID DECK...AND MOSTLY
MID 80S EAST AS A DECENT 85H JET MIXES DOWN SOME OF THE INVADING
WARMER AIR ALOFT.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL GO AWAY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RIVER VALLEYS...AND
WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO LOWER
60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WILL START WEDNESDAY OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO WEST TEXAS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG OUR MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY
ISOLATED AND WEAK. RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPING PRECIPITATION
LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S EAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AREAWIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...
MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING SOMEWHAT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
SLOWS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TRYING TO DISPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE.
POSSIBLY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK IN ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING
THE 12Z ECMWF TIMING. MOST OF THE SUPPORT FOR THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST SUCH THAT THE FRONT MAY SLOW AND DIE OVER THE
REGION NEXT MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT TUESDAY...
GOING TO BE SEEING VFR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
WILL SEE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION AFTER MIDDAY TODAY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND NORTH AND WEST TO WV. COVERAGE WILL BE
SUCH THAT NO EFFECT WILL BE MADE TO THE AVIAITON FORECAST EXCEPT
KEEPING VCTS AT LWB WHERE A BETTER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS
FOR NOW.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION DIES OFF AND SKIES CLEAR OUT SOME.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE FOG OUT BUT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LVLS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...FOG COULD FORM AT THE FAVORED
AIRPORTS LIKE LWB/BCB.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR STAYS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ALSO LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHTS ESPCLY
VALLEYS AND WHERE AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
958 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A FAINT IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS FROM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
COMBINES WITH HEATING AND RETURNING DEEPER MOISTURE. MODIFIED
MORNING SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MODEST CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST ALTHOUGH APPEARS FOCUS LACKING HEADING EAST.
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SHRA/TSRA UNZIPPING ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FROM SW TO NE AS AIDED BY DIFF HEATING EARLY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY LATER ON.
SIMILAR DEPICTION FROM THE RNK-WRF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE LATEST
NAM SUPPORT AT LEAST A SCATTERING OF POPS BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS
NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT AND PERHAPS LATER OUTFLOW. WILL
KEEP IN SLIGHT POPS ESLW FOR A POP UP STORM OR TWO WITH LEAST
COVERAGE SE. MORNING THICKNESS OFF RAOBS SHOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S WEST GIVEN INCREASING INSOLATION AFTER EARLY MID
DECK...AND MOSTLY MID 80S EAST AS A DECENT 85H JET MIXES DOWN
SOME OF THE INVADING WARMER AIR ALOFT.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL GO AWAY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RIVER VALLEYS...AND
WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO LOWER
60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WILL START WEDNESDAY OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO WEST TEXAS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG OUR MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY
ISOLATED AND WEAK. RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPING PRECIPITATION
LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S EAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AREAWIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...
MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING SOMEWHAT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
SLOWS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TRYING TO DISPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE.
POSSIBLY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK IN ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING
THE 12Z ECMWF TIMING. MOST OF THE SUPPORT FOR THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST SUCH THAT THE FRONT MAY SLOW AND DIE OVER THE
REGION NEXT MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT TUESDAY...
GOING TO BE SEEING VFR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
WILL SEE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION AFTER MIDDAY TODAY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND NORTH AND WEST TO WV. COVERAGE WILL BE
SUCH THAT NO EFFECT WILL BE MADE TO THE AVIAITON FORECAST EXCEPT
KEEPING VCTS AT LWB WHERE A BETTER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS
FOR NOW.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION DIES OFF AND SKIES CLEAR OUT SOME.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE FOG OUT BUT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LVLS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...FOG COULD FORM AT THE FAVORED
AIRPORTS LIKE LWB/BCB.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR STAYS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ALSO LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHTS ESPCLY
VALLEYS AND WHERE AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
444 AM PDT Tue May 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Today and tomorrow will be showery and cool as a pair of upper
level disturbances move through the Pacific Northwest. The low
pressure pattern will begin to break down on Thursday, and we will
likely begin to see some clearing over central Washington. By
Friday and into the weekend, weak high pressure is expected to
bring a good deal of sunshine and temperatures at or above
average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday night...Longwave trof remains in place
overhead of Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho through this
time interval. The cool pool contained in the trof keeps a
somewhat unstable air mass in place. The model vorticity fields
remain cluttered and hint at numerous small scale disturbances in
vicinity through this period so pops never really zero out but
have maximums associated with most significant shortwave features
of note. This includes a very small synoptic scale negatively
tilted trof passing through Today. The HRRR does a very good job
of resolving a thin line of convective showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two associated with this trof passage and
additionally hints at some orographically forced showers produced
this afternoon and evening. Since instability is greatest near
the British Columbia border have limited the inclusion of slight
chance of thunderstorm mention for today to the northern mountains
and don`t extend them too far south. Tuesday night has decrease
in convective showers but no end as models continue to hint at
presence of mesoscale shortwaves capable of generating them...
with most model runs focusing activity generally near northern
mountain locations highest pops are there as well. Wednesday yet
another negatively tilted very small synoptic scale disturbance
moves through tracking west to east near the Oregon/Washington
border that is depicted to take a turn and track northeast
Wednesday evening thus pops depict this same scenario. This
disturbance passing Tuesday night into Wednesday has the best
orientation to its moisture tap via an almost south to north
trajectory, therefore it should not have any problems getting
through and a cascades rain shadow will not be produced. Forecast
temperatures remain on the cool side of what would be considered
normal for this time of year given this general trof pattern.
/Pelatti
Thursday: There is still a good deal of uncertainty with the
forecast for Thursday. An elongated upper trough extending from
south of the Aleutians into the Central Plains will bisect the
state of Washington. This "mucky" upper trough will likely contain
some mesoscale feature within it, but it is very tough to forecast
where these little vorticity centers will be at this time. The 00z
GFS is the wettest of the models for Thursday for the Idaho
Panhandle and northeast Washington when compared to the NAM,
ECMWF, SREF and Canadian. So, it is hard to get more excited than
carrying a 20-50 percent chance of showers for the eastern third
of Washington into the Idaho Panhandle, with the highest chances
near the ID/MT border. Lingering showers and clouds will have a
big influence on high temperatures, so there is a high bust
potential given the uncertainty in the precipitation forecast.
Friday through Sunday: There is good model agreement that the
ridiculously elongated upper trough will be broken into pieces by
Friday. A shortwave upper ridge is forecast to develop over the
Pacific Northwest Friday and Saturday bringing an end to the
threat of organized shower activity. Temperatures should moderate
to average during this time frame as well. The shortwave ridge is
expected to be replaced by an upper low descending into southern
British Columbia on Sunday. This low will not be particularly cold
aloft and the high amplitude ridge upstream will cut off any deep
moisture tap. The ECMWF and Canadian models are colder and more
unstable aloft near the Canadian border than the GFS. Slight
chances for showers have been mentioned mainly for the mountain
zones near the B.C. border. /GKoch
Sunday night through Tuesday: A Northwest flow pattern will
prevail through this period as high pressure ridging from the
South Pacific will press North into the region. This ridging will
keep will keep a passing system in southern BC. Any precip
associated with this Low will be mainly in the Northern Mountains
of the Idaho Panhandle but is hard to be certain as the model
agreement is low. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal
norms during this period. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Occluded frontal zone has exited away to the northeast
and into Canada and Northwest Montana while unstable air with
disturbances rotating through it bring more showers approaching
fromt the south and west through the day. MVFR Ceilings may occur
at times but VFR should prevail. After 02Z Wednesday majority of
the convection should be decreased but not totally gone..and
later near 10Z some low cloud formation most locations but also
some shallow ground fog as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 64 45 62 46 62 46 / 50 30 40 30 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 43 63 45 60 44 / 50 40 40 30 40 30
Pullman 62 43 60 43 60 43 / 30 30 40 40 20 10
Lewiston 68 48 67 48 67 48 / 30 20 60 50 20 10
Colville 68 44 68 46 65 45 / 60 60 50 40 50 20
Sandpoint 62 42 63 45 57 43 / 60 60 50 40 50 30
Kellogg 59 44 58 45 55 43 / 60 60 60 50 60 40
Moses Lake 72 47 69 49 72 47 / 20 10 40 30 10 10
Wenatchee 68 49 66 50 69 49 / 20 10 50 30 10 10
Omak 70 45 69 46 69 45 / 50 30 30 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR AND 12Z NAM ARE NOW KEEPING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN THE MORNING ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL BE DELAYED IN MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY. MODELS STILL SHOW IT PUSHING INTO FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN HAVING IT STALL THIS EVENING
AND BISECT THE MKX FORECAST AREA.
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND ALSO TONIGHT WITH THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS JUST BARELY
OVER SOUTHERN WI TODAY...BUT GENERALLY POINTING TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE.
HEADLINE POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT WILL BE DENSE FOG. WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM
FRONT...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AND COULD BECOME DENSE. BEST
CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE THE NORTH HALF OF THE MKX FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
THE WARM FRONT AND HIGHER CEILINGS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL
BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD QUICKLY
TODAY OR TONIGHT. KENW AND KJVL COULD SCOUR OUT THE LIFR CIGS BY
MIDDAY...BUT KMSN/KUES/KMKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR/IFR THROUGH MOST
OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN WI
TODAY...THEN AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KMSN AND KMKE
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THERE.
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AS REGION GETS INTO
WARM SECTOR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES DUE A WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM MOIST AIR FLOWING
OVER THE COOL WATER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT ARE LEADING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE. WEB CAMS
SHOWED IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITIES LATE THIS MORNING IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THEY COULD GO DOWN AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE AREA WITH COOL EAST FLOW...SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG BUT MOST VISIBILITIES HOLDING AT 1/2 TO 1 MILE OVER THE FAR WEST
AND 1 TO 3 MILES IN THE EAST. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY IF
1/4 MILE VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAR SRN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF INCREASING 850-700 MB
WINDS CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON SRN WI BUT EXPECTED TO HEAL OVER TO THE
EAST...REFLECTED IN DIMINISHING TREND TO WESTERN END OF LINE.
HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS ALSO TAKE THIS PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE
EAST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF MCS...RIDING ALONG JUST TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT AND BEING DRIVEN BY 500 MB SHORT WAVE...WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SPC HAS PUSHED SLIGHT RISK
FARTHER SOUTH ON 28/06Z DAY 1 VERSUS 27/17Z DAY 2 WITH ONLY THE
SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES STILL LEFT IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH THAT RISK
TIED TO NORTHERN END OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. STILL EXPECT DECENT
RAINS WITH PWS RISING TO 1.5 TO 1.7. COOL OUTFLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
COMPLEX WILL LIKELY HOLD THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH UNTIL
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH APPROACHING WARM
FRONT...BUT WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT STABILIZING AFFECT OF FIRST COMPLEX.
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGS WARM FRONT INTO THE SRN-MOST
COUNTIES AROUND 3 PM...THE I-94 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM AND
SLOWS/STALLS NEAR THE NRN COUNTIES AROUND 7 PM BRINGING LATE DAY
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LOWS DO NOT FALL
OFF MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOW TO MID 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS NORTH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY AS THIS FRONT HEADS NORTHWARD. LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARMER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS
PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINING MAINLY TO THE WEST. DID KEEP SOME
POPS DUE TO GENERAL UNCERTAINTY...THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST TOWARD
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THURSDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET SLIDES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS
SETUP SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THUS KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING.
INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE THURSDAY...WITH SFC
BASED CAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG VIA NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PRETTY GOOD THOUGH...AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR IS AROUND 30-40 KT. STORMS COULD THUS BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A BIT MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. NEW SPC DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THUS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. THOUGH
BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SIMILAR CAPE
VALUES AS THURSDAY...AND WIND SHEAR ACTUALLY A BIT HIGHER.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BIT TRICKY THOUGH...DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICK THE WARM FRONT GETS NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND RESULTANT IMPACT ON TEMPS.
PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...AS MODELS INDICATE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
FOR THE COOLER LAKE AIRMASS TO INTRUDE INLAND...THOUGH MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND COULD PUSH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE LAKE. GENERALLY KEPT TEMPS A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE DUE
TO THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION AND STRENGTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...THE BEST CHANCE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A
FEW SHOWERS. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT GIVEN COOLER TREND IN THE ECMWF
AND GFS AND MAY NEED TO GO A FEW DEGREES LOWER IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.
SHOULD BE PLEASANT MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH SOME SUNSHINE
RETURNING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WILL KEEP IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TAF LOCATIONS UNTIL PASSAGE OF MCS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE CONVECTION RE-DEVELOP ALONG FRONT...BUT STABILIZING AFFECT OF
MORNING COMPLEX UNCERTAIN SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT AFTER PRECIP WITH
COMPLEX ENDS AND SEE HOW ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AS REGION GETS INTO WARM SECTOR AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MARINE...WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY. LOCATIONS
SUCH AS WIND POINT...AND FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN COULD
SEE WAVES AROUND 4 FEET OR BETTER WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FETCH BY THURSDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA AND/OR A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BEYOND THAT
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON PRECIP ACTIVITY
COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER THAN SOME LOW CIGS/FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND SOME BREEZY SRLY WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM WEST OF FORT SMITH UP THROUGH HARRISON.
THE HRRR MODEL HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF ARKANSAS. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IF NOT
A DEGREE WARMER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OUT WEST. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERATE CONVECTION
EAST OF A SURFACE LOW AND DRY LINE SETUP STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF
TEXAS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...THESE IMPULSES AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL DO THE SAME. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST IN SE ARKANSAS TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS...BUT BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS WED EVENING AS ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME ONGOING CONVECTION PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NWRN HALF OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS WHEN THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE SHORT TERM WILL EXIST. CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COOLED AIR MAY DISRUPT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THU
AFTERNOON...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SURFACE
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THU NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MCS
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NW ARKANSAS AND SRN MISSOURI LATE THU
NIGHT AS A RESULT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH ONLY AFTERNOON CU FOR CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WED THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TO START THE EXTENDED...THE BROAD UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE SE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALSO DRIFTS TO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER SW FLOW WILL BRING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO AR AND A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF
AR. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO AR AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY MOVES OVER AR.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE AR AND LA STATE LINE...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE TN VALLEY. ON MONDAY...DRIER AND A BIT
COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST
ON HOW FAR THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES THE COLD FRONT. IT IS THE END OF
MAY AND A BIT UNUSUALLY TO HAVE A COLD FRONT PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...THEN COOL A BIT IF THE
AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 87 68 86 69 / 10 10 10 30
CAMDEN AR 88 69 87 70 / 10 10 20 20
HARRISON AR 84 67 83 67 / 20 10 20 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 69 85 70 / 10 10 20 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 70 87 70 / 10 10 10 30
MONTICELLO AR 89 70 86 70 / 10 10 20 20
MOUNT IDA AR 85 68 84 70 / 10 10 20 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 86 68 85 68 / 20 10 20 40
NEWPORT AR 88 69 86 70 / 10 10 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 88 69 86 70 / 10 10 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 87 69 85 69 / 10 10 20 30
SEARCY AR 87 69 86 69 / 10 10 10 30
STUTTGART AR 88 70 86 70 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
409 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW FOR
THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE...
THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST IN HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
COLLOCATED WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CENTERED AROUND THE NYC
TRI-STATE REGION. FOLLOWING ACCORDINGLY...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
THE BATCH OF RAIN TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SHOULD IMPACT MUCH OF CONNECTICUT NORTH INTO
SPRINGFIELD AND WORCESTER MASSACHUSETTS INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE.
RAIN LOOKS TO GET INTO RHODE ISLAND AROUND 8 PM. NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE BATCH OF RAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS UPSTREAM ARE
PRESENTLY LIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES WITHIN AN HOUR OF AROUND ONE-
TENTH.
TONIGHT...
REINVIGORATION OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PROCEED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRESENT ENERGY ACROSS
MICHIGAN PROPAGATES WITH THE MEAN-FLOW ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85
JET. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UP INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAINLY
RAIN...THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS PARENT
WITH THE STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILE. BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. JUST A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER. NO THREATS ARE PERCEIVED...BUT THERE COULD BE
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER.
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR COULD BECOME DELAYED
ACROSS THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS. PRESENTLY OCEAN TEMPS HOVER AROUND
THE MID 50S. IT IS WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUCH
VALUES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR COASTAL FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES.
FEEL THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS AS DIURNAL
COOLING MIXED WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GREATER MOISTURE
WILL YIELD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. PATCHY FOG
SUBSEQUENTLY MENTIONED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST HINGES UPON THE EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT
RAINS PARENT WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHETHER CLEARING
PROCEEDS TO ALLOW DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
OF A WEAK TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL ENERGY ANTICIPATED
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN KEY INGREDIENT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION IS SIMPLY
INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS NO QUESTION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE ROBUST...WHILE HELICITY VALUES REMAIN NOTEWORTHY
TOWARDS SUPPORTING ROTATING UPDRAFTS. OF SOME CONCERN IS WHETHER
SURFACE WINDS CAN ENCOMPASS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT RESULTING IN A
GREATER TURNING OF THE WIND WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE. ECHOING
THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS IS THE LIKELY THREAT
WITH THE SHEAR PROFILE...A POTENTIAL BRIEF SPIN-UP IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. BUT AGAIN THE POSSIBILITY HINGES ON SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BUILDING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PROFILE.
FEEL THE NORTH AND EAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE...SOCKED
IN BY CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION BUT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE LOOK TO BE LOW. WILL
SIMPLY GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTH AND WEST IT IS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE THAT CLOUDS COULD BREAK
ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...
FORCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY. WHILE
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NY/PA...WITHIN THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY IT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS TO SEE STORMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO.
GREATER CONFIDENCE LEANS TOWARDS DAMAGING WINDS AS THE FORECASTED
WIND PROFILE IS MORE UNI-DIRECTIONAL...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXHIBITS AN INVERTED-V PROFILE. FORECAST AMENDED ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE PERCEIVED THREATS. DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE ANTICIPATED WITH
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE POSSIBLY RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER. THE EVENING COMMUTE AROUND THE HARTFORD-
SPRINGFIELD AREA MAY COME UNDER THREAT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HEAT WAVE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SNE THU THROUGH SAT
* INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN INTO MON
* MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SIGNALING SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS SE US RIDGE EXPANDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GT LAKES TROF PUSHES
EAST WITH INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN COOLER TEMPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION NEXT TUE. ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WHILE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEPS THE TROF AXIS TO THE WEST WITH CONTINUED CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS.
LOTS OF INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE SO FORECAST WILL
LIKELY UNDERGO CHANGES WITH TIME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE THEME DURING THIS PERIOD
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE
TO 16-17C THU AND NEAR 18C FRI AND SAT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME MID 90S
POSSIBLE FRI/SAT IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST DUE TO SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND. A 3 DAY HEAT
WAVE IS LIKELY FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE EACH AFTERNOON SO CANT RULE OUT ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION...BUT LIMITED FORCING WILL KEEP AREAL COVERAGE QUITE
LIMITED WITH DRY WEATHER MOST OF THE TIME.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE INTERIOR WITH FOCUS SHIFTING ACROSS REST OF SNE SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL QUITE WARM
ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 MB TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S...COOLING TO THE 70S MONDAY.
TUESDAY... LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA. WE LEANED TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT A WETTER SCENARIO CANT BE RULED
OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PROCEED INTO THE EVENING ERODING DAYTIME SEA-
BREEZES. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR COASTAL FOG WILL BE AN
ISSUE FOR THE SOUTH-COASTAL TERMINALS. INTO WEDNESDAY...SHRA/TSRA
ANTICIPATED...BUT SPECIFICITY IS INDETERMINATE. CONFIDENCE OF A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR IMPACTS...WITH A GREATER
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. ENERGY AND
TERMINAL IMPACTS CLEARING OUT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE SHOULD ERODE OUT
INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH
GREATEST THREAT SUN AFTERNOON IN THE INTERIOR. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG THE OUTER WATERS.
PERSISTED WITH A GENERIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS COULD GUST
AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT TIMES.
RAIN AND COASTAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WATERS. ZERO-VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG...BUT FOR NOW A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IS
PRESENTED WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1-2 SM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY GALE-FORCE WINDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW MOSTLY BELOW SCA BUT WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 25
KT BY SUN. INCREASING SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT LATE
FRI INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS...AND
POSSIBLY REACHING 7 FT BY SUN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUMMERTIME SIZZLE THEN VISITS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE...
THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST IN HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
COLLOCATED WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CENTERED AROUND THE NYC
TRI-STATE REGION. FOLLOWING ACCORDINGLY...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
THE BATCH OF RAIN TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SHOULD IMPACT MUCH OF CONNECTICUT NORTH INTO
SPRINGFIELD AND WOCESTER MASSACHUSETTS INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE.
RAIN LOOKS TO GET INTO RHODE ISLAND AROUND 8 PM. NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE BATCH OF RAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS UPSTREAM ARE
PRESENTLY LIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES WITHIN AN HOUR OF AROUND ONE-
TENTH.
TONIGHT...
REINVIGORATION OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PROCEED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRESENT ENERGY ACROSS
MICHIGAN PROPAGATES WITH THE MEAN-FLOW ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85
JET. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UP INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAINLY
RAIN...THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS PARENT
WITH THE STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILE. BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. JUST A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER. NO THREATS ARE PERCEIVED...BUT THERE COULD BE
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER.
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR COULD BECOME DELAYED
ACROSS THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS. PRESENTLY OCEAN TEMPS HOVER AROUND
THE MID 50S. IT IS WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUCH
VALUES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR COASTAL FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES.
FEEL THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS AS DIURNAL
COOLING MIXED WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GREATER MOISTURE
WILL YIELD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. PATCHY FOG
SUBSEQUENTLY MENTIONED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST HINGES UPON THE EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT
RAINS PARENT WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHETHER CLEARING
PROCEEDS TO ALLOW DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
OF A WEAK TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL ENERGY ANTICIPATED
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN KEY INGREDIENT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION IS SIMPLY
INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS NO QUESTION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE ROBUST...WHILE HELICITY VALUES REMAIN NOTEWORTHY
TOWARDS SUPPORTING ROTATING UPDRAFTS. OF SOME CONCERN IS WHETHER
SURFACE WINDS CAN ENCOMPASS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT RESULTING IN A
GREATER TURNING OF THE WIND WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE. ECHOING
THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS IS THE LIKELY THREAT
WITH THE SHEAR PROFILE...A POTENTIAL BRIEF SPIN-UP IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. BUT AGAIN THE POSSIBILITY HINGES ON SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BUILDING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PROFILE.
FEEL THE NORTH AND EAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE...SOCKED
IN BY CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION BUT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE LOOK TO BE LOW. WILL
SIMPLY GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTH AND WEST IT IS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE THAT CLOUDS COULD BREAK
ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...
FORCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY. WHILE
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NY/PA...WITHIN THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY IT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS TO SEE STORMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO.
GREATER CONFIDENCE LEANS TOWARDS DAMAGING WINDS AS THE FORECASTED
WIND PROFILE IS MORE UNI-DIRECTIONAL...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXHIBITS AN INVERTED-V PROFILE. FORECAST AMENDED ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE PERCEIVED THREATS. DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE ANTICIPATED WITH
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE POSSIBLY RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER. THE EVENING COMMUTE AROUND THE HARTFORD-
SPRINGFIELD AREA MAY COME UNDER THREAT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
GULF OF ALASKA LOW DIGS OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES...WHICH
INDUCES THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
LEAVES A CLEAR PATH FOR THE WARM HUMID AIR IN THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE
ON THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE OCEAN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAKING ROOM FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS SUPPORTING UPPER JET
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST USA.
MODEL PREFERENCES...
UPPER CONTOUR FIELDS ARE SIMILAR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PREFER A BLEND OF HPC/GMOS AND ECMWF/GFS DATA.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
UPPER SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND PUSHING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. ACTUALLY...THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT HIDDEN
IN THE MODEL FIELDS...BUT ONE SO WEAK THAT ITS EFFECTS COULD BE
OVERLOOKED. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALOFT AND TOTALS 45-50...SO SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE REASONABLE.
TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK. TEMPS ALOFT
UNDER THIS RIDGE ALSO BUILD WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER EQUIVALENT TO 17-18C AT 850 MB ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SOUTHWEST
WIND AND LOOKS TOO STRONG FOR AN EAST COAST SEABREEZE. THIS
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 85-95 WITH THE WARMEST MAX TEMPS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED DEWPOINTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...HIGHER VALUES ARE ONLY ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS
WILL GIVE US A TASTE OF SUMMER HUMIDITY AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S.
CONVECTION WILL BE A QUESTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH
AND SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL WORK AGAINST ANY STORMS FORMING. BUT
STABILITY PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE...TOTALS HOLD AT 47 TO
50 PER ECMWF. SO CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANY OF THESE DAYS...BUT
WITH LOW LIKELIHOOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE CT VALLEY AND BERKSHIRE EAST
SLOPE...BUT WITH A CHANCE LATER IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST.
MONDAY...
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST COAST MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE
UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRESENT A RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE HUMID
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SO SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PROCEED INTO THE EVENING ERODING DAYTIME SEA-
BREEZES. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR COASTAL FOG WILL BE AN
ISSUE FOR THE SOUTH-COASTAL TERMINALS. INTO WEDNESDAY...SHRA/TSRA
ANTICIPATED...BUT SPECIFICITY IS INDETERMINATE. CONFIDENCE OF A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR IMPACTS...WITH A GREATER
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. ENERGY AND
TERMINAL IMPACTS CLEARING OUT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE SHOULD ERODE OUT
INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY ESPECIALLY VICINITY
OF THE CT VALLEY. BETTER CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN TSTMS ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG THE OUTER WATERS.
PERSISTED WITH A GENERIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS COULD GUST
AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT TIMES.
RAIN AND COASTAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WATERS. ZERO-VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG...BUT FOR NOW A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IS
PRESENTED WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1-2 SM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY GALE-FORCE WINDS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND REMAINS BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BUT THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS OF 5-7 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS. A LENGTHY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THESE SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
323 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THEREAFTER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUMMERTIME SIZZLE THEN VISITS FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 PM UPDATE...
THE HRRR IS DOING THE BEST IN HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
COLLOCATED WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CENTERED AROUND THE NYC
TRI-STATE REGION. FOLLOWING ACCORDINGLY...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
THE BATCH OF RAIN TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SHOULD IMPACT MUCH OF CONNECTICUT NORTH INTO
SPRINGFIELD AND WOCESTER MASSACHUSETTS INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE.
RAIN LOOKS TO GET INTO RHODE ISLAND AROUND 8 PM. NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE BATCH OF RAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS UPSTREAM ARE
PRESENTLY LIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES WITHIN AN HOUR OF AROUND ONE-
TENTH.
TONIGHT...
REINVIGORATION OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL PROCEED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRESENT ENERGY ACROSS
MICHIGAN PROPAGATES WITH THE MEAN-FLOW ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85
JET. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND UP INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAINLY
RAIN...THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS PARENT
WITH THE STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILE. BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. JUST A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER. NO THREATS ARE PERCEIVED...BUT THERE COULD BE
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER.
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR COULD BECOME DELAYED
ACROSS THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS. PRESENTLY OCEAN TEMPS HOVER AROUND
THE MID 50S. IT IS WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUCH
VALUES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR COASTAL FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASES.
FEEL THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS AS DIURNAL
COOLING MIXED WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GREATER MOISTURE
WILL YIELD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. PATCHY FOG
SUBSEQUENTLY MENTIONED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST HINGES UPON THE EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT
RAINS PARENT WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHETHER CLEARING
PROCEEDS TO ALLOW DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
OF A WEAK TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL ENERGY ANTICIPATED
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN KEY INGREDIENT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION IS SIMPLY
INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS NO QUESTION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE ROBUST...WHILE HELICITY VALUES REMAIN NOTEWORTHY
TOWARDS SUPPORTING ROTATING UPDRAFTS. OF SOME CONCERN IS WHETHER
SURFACE WINDS CAN ENCOMPASS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT RESULTING IN A
GREATER TURNING OF THE WIND WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE. ECHOING
THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS IS THE LIKELY THREAT
WITH THE SHEAR PROFILE...A POTENTIAL BRIEF SPIN-UP IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. BUT AGAIN THE POSSIBILITY HINGES ON SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BUILDING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PROFILE.
FEEL THE NORTH AND EAST FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE...SOCKED
IN BY CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION BUT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE LOOK TO BE LOW. WILL
SIMPLY GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTH AND WEST IT IS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE THAT CLOUDS COULD BREAK
ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...
FORCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY. WHILE
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NY/PA...WITHIN THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY IT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS TO SEE STORMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO.
GREATER CONFIDENCE LEANS TOWARDS DAMAGING WINDS AS THE FORECASTED
WIND PROFILE IS MORE UNI-DIRECTIONAL...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXHIBITS AN INVERTED-V PROFILE. DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE ANTICIPATED
WITH THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE POSSIBLY RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER. THE EVENING COMMUTE AROUND THE
HARTFORD-SPRINGFIELD AREA MAY COME UNDER THREAT WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
GULF OF ALASKA LOW DIGS OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES...WHICH
INDUCES THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
LEAVES A CLEAR PATH FOR THE WARM HUMID AIR IN THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE
ON THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE OCEAN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAKING ROOM FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS SUPPORTING UPPER JET
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST USA.
MODEL PREFERENCES...
UPPER CONTOUR FIELDS ARE SIMILAR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PREFER A BLEND OF HPC/GMOS AND ECMWF/GFS DATA.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
UPPER SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND PUSHING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. ACTUALLY...THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT HIDDEN
IN THE MODEL FIELDS...BUT ONE SO WEAK THAT ITS EFFECTS COULD BE
OVERLOOKED. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALOFT AND TOTALS 45-50...SO SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE REASONABLE.
TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK. TEMPS ALOFT
UNDER THIS RIDGE ALSO BUILD WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER EQUIVALENT TO 17-18C AT 850 MB ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SOUTHWEST
WIND AND LOOKS TOO STRONG FOR AN EAST COAST SEABREEZE. THIS
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS 85-95 WITH THE WARMEST MAX TEMPS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED DEWPOINTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY...HIGHER VALUES ARE ONLY ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS
WILL GIVE US A TASTE OF SUMMER HUMIDITY AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S.
CONVECTION WILL BE A QUESTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH
AND SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL WORK AGAINST ANY STORMS FORMING. BUT
STABILITY PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE...TOTALS HOLD AT 47 TO
50 PER ECMWF. SO CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANY OF THESE DAYS...BUT
WITH LOW LIKELIHOOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE CT VALLEY AND BERKSHIRE EAST
SLOPE...BUT WITH A CHANCE LATER IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST.
MONDAY...
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST COAST MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE
UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRESENT A RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE HUMID
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SO SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PROCEED INTO THE EVENING ERODING DAYTIME SEA-
BREEZES. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR COASTAL FOG WILL BE AN
ISSUE FOR THE SOUTH-COASTAL TERMINALS. INTO WEDNESDAY...SHRA/TSRA
ANTICIPATED...BUT SPECIFICITY IS INDETERMINATE. CONFIDENCE OF A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR IMPACTS...WITH A GREATER
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. ENERGY AND
TERMINAL IMPACTS CLEARING OUT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE SHOULD ERODE OUT
INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY ESPECIALLY VICINITY
OF THE CT VALLEY. BETTER CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN TSTMS ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. HOWEVER TONIGHT...
EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
ALONG WITH SEAS INTO THE DAY WED. SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH 5-6 FT
EARLY WED MORNING FIRST ON SRN WATERS...THEN ERN WATERS DURING THE
DAY WED. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES WED AS WELL.
THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR EARLY MORNING
WED INTO THE DAY WED...PRIMARILY ON OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWERS AND FOG MAY LEAD TO REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ON WED...THERE IS A THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND REMAINS BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BUT THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS OF 5-7 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS. A LENGTHY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THESE SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ235-237-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
324 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN GENERAL MADE MORE COMPLICATED IN
THE MODELS WITH A STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT OVERALL.
HOWEVER...FOR ALL THE NUANCES WITH THE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...THE ONE AGREED UPON PORTION IN ALL THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS IS THAT CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE RATHER WET THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...LEAVING ILX
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN A RATHER MUGGY
AIRMASS. THIS WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL HELP TO FUEL ANY MCS REMNANTS/BOUNDARIES
THAT MOVE INTO THE FA...IN ADDITION TO THE OVERALL FRONT SCHEDULED
TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST AT MIDWEEK. WITH SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...THE
FRONT IS GOING TO LOSE ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM...SLOW MOVING...AND
SLOW TO EXIT. AS A RESULT...ANY WAVES THAT EJECT OUT OF THE SW AND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY INVOF WHEREVER THE FRONT
LANDS...WHICH WILL NOT ONLY BE DIFFICULT TO PIN...FRONT WILL ALSO
END UP GETTING INFLUENCED GREATLY BY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES/COLD
POOLS/OUTFLOWS AS WELL. WITH GROUND ALREADY VERY SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS RAINS...THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY GET A BREAK
TOMORROW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT IT WILL BE BACK BY
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LIKELY TO THE WEST IN NRN MO JUST ACROSS THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH RUC AND NMM/WRF KEEPING SOME
ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE RUC/RAP IS ACTUALLY CONFINING MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. THE 4KM WRF/NMM DEVELOPS MORE OF A LINEAR
COMPLEX THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE FA TO THE SE AND WEAKENS
AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA. SHOWER THREAT FINALLY DIMINISHES BRIEFLY
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE THREAT OF ANY INTERACTION WITH THE WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN POPS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE
STATE. WARM TEMPS...SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR
90. WINDS WILL BE RATHER BREEZY AND HELP TO COUNTER SOME OF THE
EFFECTS...THOUGH CAUTION SHOULD BE USED BY ANYONE OUTDOORS
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WESTERN TROF DIGS IN...AMPLIFYING THE WAVE PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS AND LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST IN SWRLY FLOW...THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH WARM TEMPS YET AGAIN ON THURSDAY. TEMPS IN THE NW
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DAMPENED HOWEVER...BY CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CURVE WILL LIKELY BE
SHATTERED BY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RUINING THE STEADY CLIMB OF
TEMPERATURES IN ANY ONE SPOT AHEAD OF THAT BOUNDARY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ABOUT DETAILS COMPLICATED WITH THE ELONGATED TROF IN
THE ECMWF/NAM IS PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH THE
SFC SYSTEM THAN THE NAM. THAT BEING SAID...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING A
BIT MORE LIKE THE GFS IN THE 12Z RUN. THOUGH EVERYONE IS IN
AGREEMENT ABOUT ENTERING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP THROUGH DAY
5...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL IMPACT THE DYNAMICS AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FORECASTING ONSET OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT. IN SUMMARY...THE RAIN
IS NOT OVER AS LONG AS THAT FRONT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM GETS SLOWED
BY PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS CLEARED THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS...LEAVING BEHIND A 4000-8000FT MID-LEVEL
OVERCAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO EXACTLY WHERE STORMS WILL
FIRE...BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PLACES THEM FURTHER
NORTH/NORTHWEST NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA INTO
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
E/NE TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR AFTER 20Z FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE
INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA AND KBMI BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z. FURTHER SOUTH
AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES...HAVE FEATURED THUNDER BETWEEN 02Z AND
09Z. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG/GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW-LEVEL
JET MIXES TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT TONIGHT.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>053-061.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1044 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. 15Z/10AM RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LINGERING CONVECTION JUST SOUTH
OF THE KILX CWA IN THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA. FURTHER
NORTH...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER EAST OF I-55. THANKS
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...LAPS DATA SHOWS A STABLE LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH CAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 500J/KG. BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST UPSTREAM OVER IOWA/MISSOURI WILL WORK EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
RE-DEVELOPING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS FURTHER NORTH
CLOSER TO SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS SUCH...WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING DOWN TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR ALL LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF A
BLOOMINGTON TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS CLEARED THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS...LEAVING BEHIND A 4000-8000FT MID-LEVEL
OVERCAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO EXACTLY WHERE STORMS WILL
FIRE...BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PLACES THEM FURTHER
NORTH/NORTHWEST NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA INTO
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
E/NE TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR AFTER 20Z FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP/SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE
INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA AND KBMI BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z. FURTHER SOUTH
AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES...HAVE FEATURED THUNDER BETWEEN 02Z AND
09Z. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG/GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW-LEVEL
JET MIXES TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT TONIGHT.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WARM FRONT AT 07Z HAD LIFTED NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH
S/SE WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ADVECTING LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO
THE CWA. IMPRESSIVE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING INTO NE MO
HAD A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AT -60C OR LESS PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS MCS WAS BEING MAINTAINED BY A 55-65 KT SW 850MB JET WHICH
TAPPED INTO A 15-17C DEWPOINT POOL OVER THE PLAINS. FIRST FORECAST
ISSUE WILL BE THE IMPACT OF THIS MCS ON THE CWA THIS MORNING.
AWIPS DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL TAKES THE LEADING EDGE INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA JUST BEFORE 10Z/5AM. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NSSL WRF
SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AND BOTH SHOW
CONVECTION MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THROUGH 12-13Z. STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEED IN
FROM THE SW TO KEEP HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1.5 IN/HR WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF FORWARD SPEED
SLOWS OR TRAINING DEVELOPS. WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN AREA OF 1K DCAPE SHIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. KIRK IN
NE MO RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 57 KTS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS LINE.
SECONDARY FORECAST CONCERN IS POSSIBLE SVR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON FORMING ALONG REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...AND WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING SFC BASED CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 40KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. OF COURSE QUESTION MARKS
REVOLVE AROUND STABILIZING EFFECTS OF MORNING MCS AND RECOVERY.
SPC HAS EXPANDED DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE AREAS NORTH OF I-70.
FOR TONIGHT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER MCS TO FORM NEAR THE
IA/MO BORDER REGION AND SHIFT EAST AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
CWA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BY WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SHIFTING THE MAIN STORM PATH NORTH. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE MSLP GRADIENT CAUSING SOUTH WINDS
TO GUST AROUND 30 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME SUN SHOULD PRODUCE
A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGS A DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. LEAD SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH IN THIS FLOW WILL ACT
ON A HIGH P/W ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST...HELPING EASE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS MORE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>053-061.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS
WELL AS PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAKING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DECENT CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL WAVE OVER IOWA THAT IS GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD.
SYNOPTIC SCALE UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV WILL SPREAD OVER OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ENCOUNTERING A RATHER MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEGREE OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY RECOVERY REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE THOUGH. REMNANTS OF MORNING CONVECTION OVER ILLINOIS
ARE ALREADY IMPINGING ON OUR WESTERN BORDER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER BLANKETING THE CWA. A FEW THIN SPOTS SEEN IN LATEST VIS
IMAGERY BUT OUR CWA REMAINS STABLE SO FAR. 12Z RAP CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THIS WILL CHANGE THOUGH AS FILTERED INSOLATION COMBINES WITH
GOOD WAA TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WAY
OVERDONE BUT MODIFIED SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1500 J/KG OVER OUR EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH 700MB WINDS
APPROACHING 50 KTS...THIS WARRANTS CONTINUED THREAT...MAINLY OVER
OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS IN THE 18-00Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED
TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BUT DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WARM FRONT MOVG NORTH ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS WERE MOVG EAST ALONG THE FRONT. FIRST SHOULD BE MOVG OUT
OF ERN PORTION OF CWA AROUND 12Z WHILE UPSTREAM MCS IN IA MAY
REACH THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME. LIKELY WILL BE SOME DIURNAL
WKNG OF THIS MCS HWVR SO SOME DOUBTS REMAIN IF IT WILL REACH OUR
AREA. SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS UPSTREAM IS FCST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN THROUGH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY
THAT TIME. SOME WK CAPPING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
OVERCOME BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF CWA. COMBINATION OF 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHRTWV WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE
AREA MAY RESULT IN TSTMS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NRN PORTION OF CWA CLOSER TO WARM FRONT AND SHRTWV FORCING.
DESPITE EXPECTED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY... FAIRLY STRONG
GRADIENT MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE L80S OVER MOST OF
THE CWA WITH CONTD S-SW FLOW TONIGHT RESULTING IN MINS ONLY IN THE
M-U60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
ONGOING CONVECTION MAY BE LINGERING ALONG MODIFIED FRONTAL OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...LEFT A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY...CAUSING LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO INCREASE AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY 850 MB TEMPS OF 15C TO
17C. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROF BECOMING
POSITIVELY TILTED BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE TWO ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...THE FIRST AS A SHORT WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL GIVEN
JET ENERGY RACING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS WEEKEND. HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS LATE THIS WEEK GIVEN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE. WPC DAY 4/5 SUPPORTS 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN LATE THIS WEEK GIVEN MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
DIURNAL INSTABILITY RECOVERY WAS TOO SLOW TO CAPITALIZE ON OLD MCV
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN AND JUST A FEW ISOLATED
SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR CWA AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS TO KSBN IN ITS WAKE. CONVECTION
CHANCES WILL THEREFORE DEPEND ON NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING
PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...NOT SLATED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING REMAINS
VERY LOW. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THOUGH WITH ONLY BRIEF VIS
REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...KG
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
PIEDMONT. IN GENERAL...THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE THUS
FAR WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE OF THIS PRECIP...AND WILL HAVE A
POP FORECAST THAT IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT THESE MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AND SCATTERED COVERAGE FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING HRS GIVEN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PUSHING ACRS THE AREA. SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK/0-6KM BULK SHEAR LESS
THAN 25 KT THROUGHOUT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENLY <6 C/KM
SO ONLY AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS
THE FAR NORTH. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD
WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD ON WED AND BECOME
CENTERED ACRS SE VA AND EASTERN NC THU/FRI WITH HEIGHTS AVERAGING
588-590 DM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF
THE MID ATLC/SE COAST. SUMMER- LIKE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH
HIGHS GENLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND (LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES
OF THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE FLOW BACKS TO SSE DURING THE AFTN).
LACK OF ANY REAL TRIGGER WITH THE WARM POOL ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LITTLE CHC FOR ANY PCPN. A VERY
ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTM CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONG
SFC HEATING ...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 14% OR LESS. THE SKY
WILL AVERAGE OUT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY. AIRMASS WILL NOT BE THAT
HUMID...AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL QUITE COOL AND WITH AFTN
MIXING...EXPECT DEW PTS TO DROP TO THE LWR 60S DURING THE HEAT OF
THE AFTN (MID-UPR 60S IN THE MORNING HRS). SO WHILE IT WILL BE A
MARGINALLY HOT PERIOD...PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL GENLY BE ABOUT THE
SAME AS THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S...WITH UPPER 60S MORE COMMON IN THE URBAN
CENTERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED WRT
CNTRL CONUS TROUGH OPENING UP AND PROGRESSING EWD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. MEAN FRONTAL POSITION SAT
MORNING EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES...STRETCHING SWWD INTO SRN NM. WAVY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE SFC FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EWD. WHILE LATEST GFS AND EURE DERIVE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EJECTING A SHORTWAVE EWD FROM THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY SUN
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE THEN FORECAST TO PHASE WITH UPPER TROUGH AS IT
TRAVERSES THE ERN STATES...REACHING THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER OFFSHORE
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE RESULT WILL BE DEEP SWLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. DEEP MOISTURE EXPECTED AS
PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES (+2 STD DEV) MON AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAKNESS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT (GFS ~ 6 HOURS
SLOWER) WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT.
WHILE ITS STILL DAY 7...POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE FRONTAL WAVES AND
DEEP MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
(WHICH IS NOT UNCHARACTERISTIC FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THETA-E
ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST BLOCKING OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC MAY CAUSE THE TROUGH TO HANG
UP ALONG THE COAST WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO TUES.
WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE
FOR AFTERNOON CU SAT-SUN. HOWEVER...NEAR SEASONABLE PRECIP
WATERS...COOL OCEAN TEMPS (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S) AND A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (WEAK FLOW) WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE CAPPED AFTERNOON POPS AT 10-14 PCT AND OVERNIGHT POPS AT 10
PCT. DAYTIME TEMPS +1 STD DEV FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER MONDAY (LOW/MID 80S) AND TUESDAY (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S).
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST NEXT 2-6 HRS AS TO WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION
DVLPS. RUC SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY DVLPNG NEXT 2 HRS ALONG LINE OF
AC CLOUD DECK CRNTLY LCTD FROM OXB-RIC WHILE NAM/SREF WAIT UNTIL
AFTR 22Z FOR ACTIVITY TO DVLP ACROSS MTS THEN MOVE EAST. GIVEN THE
CRNT CNDTNS LEANED TOWARD THE LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE FOR CONVECTION
TO DVLP THEN MOVE EAST. THIS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA
(RIC/SBY) BTWN 22-02Z WHILE SRN TAF SITES (ORF/PHF/ECG) STAY DRY.
THUS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED CB TO THE RIC AND SBY TAFS TOWARD 00Z.
APPEARS THAT SBY HAS THE GREATEST CHC FOR PCPN. SW WNDS AVG 10-20
KTS THRU 22Z.
OTW...XPCT VFR CNDTNS WITH ONLY HIGH LVL CLDNS (AOA 12K FT) TONITE.
SOME LGT BR PSBL LATE TONITE...BUT THAT WUD BE WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS
SO HELD OFF WITH ANY BR ATTM.
OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE COAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DRY WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD.
&&
.MARINE...
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH S/SW WINDS
AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY AND AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS POST FRONTAL.
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE WATERS. WAA AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL INHIBIT
THESE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM REACHING THE WATER. HOWEVER...WINDS
OVER THE BAY MAY STILL GUST OVER 15 KT AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SLY CHANNELING. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS
IN 5 FT SEAS 20 NM OUT TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE OVERDONE.
NO SCA HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER (SUB SCA CONDITIONS) EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. S/SW WINDS AOB 15 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT
AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
119 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLIER SHRA ACTIVITY ACRS THE ERN SHORE HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NE
AND ENTIRE CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR (ASIDE FORM LOCALLY COOLER
ONSHORE COASTAL ERN SHORE AREAS). WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN BE
SEEN ACRS SE OHIO/WV...WITH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. AS SOME OF THIS ENERGY CROSSES THE MTNS LATER THIS
AFTN/EVENING ALONG WITH SEVERAL MORE HRS OF PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES/SFC HEATING...EXPECT SCTD SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS A LITTLE BETTER
CLOSER TO THE SFC BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE OUTFLOW ENERGY MAY THEN HELP DRIVE
SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SO WILL CARRY AT LEAST 20%
POPS ALL ZONES AFTER ABOUT 20Z...BUT HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) STILL
LOOK TO BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...PUSHING INTO THE ERN SHORE BY 00Z.
SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK/0-6KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 25 KT THROUGHOUT
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENLY <6 C/KM SO ONLY AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST/DATABASE. MAX
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY LWR-MID 80S WELL INLAND...75-80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST (AND LOCALLY COOLER ERN SHORE BEACHES).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WED-THU...BLDG RDG ALOFT/H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 588-590 DM
COMBINED WITH NEAR STATIONARY SFC HI PRES IN THE WRN ATLC...WILL
RESULT IN SUMMER-LIKE CONDS WED-THU. LACK OF ANY REAL TRIGGER WITH
THE WARM POOL ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LITTLE
CHC FOR ANY PCPN. A VERY ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S OVER MOST OF
THE REGION...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE 14% OR LESS. THE SKY WILL
AVERAGE OUT PRTLY/MSTLY SNY. AIRMASS WILL NOT BE THAT HUMID...AS
OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL QUITE COOL AND WITH AFTN MIXING...EXPECT
DEW PTS TO DROP TO THE LWR 60S DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTN (MID-
UPR 60S IN THE MORNG HRS).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR
WEATHER PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT MEAN RIDGE OVER THE EAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS TROUGH EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. STRONG SPEED MAX EXPECTED TO ROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH FRI INTO SAT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...EJECTING THE LEADING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SE CANADA. MODELS THEN
STRUGGLE WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE 27/12Z GFS...SHORTWAVE THEN TRAVERSES THE
TN VALLEY MONDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY AFTERNOON. 27/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. ECMWF SUGGESTS A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WITH LESS
PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS DETAILS ARE
WORKED OUT AND THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WILL INTRODUCE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST FRIDAY. RIDGE AXIS AND
UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SAT...AS SWLY FLOW RETURNS. WEAKNESS
UNDER THE RIDGE MAY LIFT TOWARD THE COAST SUN-MON...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THIS FEATURE (IF FUTURE
MODEL RUNS STILL PRODUCE THIS FEATURE) TO REMAIN OFFSHORE DUE TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH.
WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE
FOR AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY. HOWEVER...NEAR SEASONABLE PRECIP WATERS
AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (WEAK FLOW) WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE CAPPED AFTERNOON POPS AT 10-14 PCT AND OVERNIGHT POPS AT 10
PCT. DAYTIME TEMPS +1 STD DEV FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER MONDAY WILL FRONTAL PASSAGE. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SW
AOB 10 KT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST NEXT 2-6 HRS AS TO WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION
DVLPS. RUC SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY DVLPNG NEXT 2 HRS ALONG LINE OF
AC CLOUD DECK CRNTLY LCTD FROM OXB-RIC WHILE NAM/SREF WAIT UNTIL
AFTR 22Z FOR ACTIVITY TO DVLP ACROSS MTS THEN MOVE EAST. GIVEN THE
CRNT CNDTNS LEANED TOWARD THE LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE FOR CONVECTION
TO DVLP THEN MOVE EAST. THIS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA
(RIC/SBY) BTWN 22-02Z WHILE SRN TAF SITES (ORF/PHF/ECG) STAY DRY.
THUS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED CB TO THE RIC AND SBY TAFS TOWARD 00Z.
APPEARS THAT SBY HAS THE GREATEST CHC FOR PCPN. SW WNDS AVG 10-20
KTS THRU 22Z.
OTW...XPCT VFR CNDTNS WITH ONLY HIGH LVL CLDNS (AOA 12K FT) TONITE.
SOME LGT BR PSBL LATE TONITE...BUT THAT WUD BE WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS
SO HELD OFF WITH ANY BR ATTM.
OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE COAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DRY WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC WARM FRONT ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE FROM
NRN INDIANA INTO SW VA. OBS/BUOY REORTS SHOWING GENLY LIGHT S/SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING..WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
WATERS BY EARLY AFTN, WITH SSW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN/TNGT. DESPITE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, WAA AND A STRONG
LLVL INVERSION WILL PREVENT HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN
TO THE WATER SFC. THEREAFTER, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SE COAST. S/SW WINDS AOB 15 KT. WAVES
1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER THE
GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. THERE ARE
A PAIR OF SHRTWVS IN THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS RIVER VALLEY LIFTING NEWD
IN THE SW FLOW ALF BTWN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES. THE FIRST OF
THESE IS MOVING THRU IOWA AND CAUSING A BAND OF SHRA/SOME TS N OF
SFC/H85 WARM FNT IN THE LOWER GREAT LKS. THE BULK OF THESE SHRA ARE
MOVING ENEWD THRU LWR MI AND ON TRACK TO MISS THE CWA...BUT SOME SCT
-SHRA EXTENDING AS FAR W AS MPX ARE SHIFTING NEWD THRU WI AND
CLOSING IN ON THE SCNTRL CWA. THE HEAVIER/MOST WDSPRD SHRA MISSING
THE CWA TO THE SE APPEAR BEST CORRELATED WITH THE SHARPEST H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC...WHILE THE SHRA IN WI APPEAR TIED TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 300-305K SFCS /H85-7/. OTRW...SKIES ARE CLDY OVER THE
CWA N OF THE WARM FNT WITH AMPLE MSTR IN THE SFC-H7 LYR SHOWN ON THE
12Z MPX/GRB/APX RAOBS. THESE CLDS HAVE GREATLY RESTRICTED THE
DIURNAL RECOVERY OF TEMP. BEHIND THE OTHER SHRTWV OVER NDAKOTA...A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS NOTED SHIFTING EWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV/WARM FNT TO THE S AND THEN DRYING TRENDS LATER TNGT INTO WED
AS DRY AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS.
TNGT...SINCE DEEPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ENEWD
THRU LWR MI AND INTO SE ONTARIO...EXPECT HEAVIER SHRA TO REMAIN SE
OF UPR MI. HOWEVER...WITH SHRTWV IN IOWA APRCHG THE CWA THRU WI AND
BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 300-305K SFCS IMPACTING MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND ERN ZNS THIS EVNG...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD -SHRA TO DRIFT
THRU THIS AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE GREEN BAY/LK MI. LATER TNGT AFT THE
SHRTWV DRIFTS TO THE NE OF UPR MI AND HGTS BEGIN TO RISE UNDER THE
DNVA/VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT A DRYING TREND ALF AND FOR ANY PCPN TO END W-E.
BUT LO CLDS AND SOME FOG WL BE AROUND WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR AND
ONLY WEAK HI PRES SHIFTING OVHD. WITH THE LINGERING LO CLDS...TEMPS
SHOULD FALL ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
WED...UNDER RISING HGTS/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC UNDER SHRTWV RDGING
ALF...EXPECT MID LVL DRYING AS AIRMASS NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN
PLAINS SHIFTS INTO THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH LO CLDS/SOME FOG WL LINGER
THRU SUNRISE...DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP THIS
LO CLD. SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS BTWN H75-8 AND
LLVL ACYC FLOW WL TEND TO SQUASH ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT TRY TO
FIRE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MORE HUMID LLVL AIRMASS THAT WL SUPPORT
SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 50S. IN FACT...NAM/ GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMP AOA 90. MIXING TO H8-85 ON THESE FCST SDNGS HINT MAX
TEMPS WL REACH ARND 80 AWAY FM LK MODERATION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. FOG WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS
WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ENHANCING THE MARINE LAYER.
THIS...COUPLED WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE MARINE LAYER...WILL
INCREASE THE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE MARINE LAYER AIDING IN FOG
FORMATION. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT BY THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND DRY AIR SPILLS OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT...EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN MN EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL WI AND CENTRAL LOWER MI WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHOWN BY OVERLAYING 850MB THETA E ALONG
WITH 850MB WINDS. THIS HAPPENS AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT HEIGHT
FALLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB LOW
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE UNITED STATES...BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 850MB LLJ
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE VALUES
DURING THIS TIME ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000 J/KG
WITH THE NAM BEING ON THE HIGHER END AND MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS
AROUND 500-600 J/KG. WHILE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE CHANCES OF SVR WEATHER AT THIS POINT
ARE LIMITED AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE MARGINAL...RANGING FROM 20
TO 25 KTS. FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER THREAT...BULK SHEAR
VALUES WOULD NEED TO BE CLOSER TO 40-45 KNOTS OR GREATER.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MN. EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE DIFFER FROM MODEL TO MODEL WITH
THE GFS STILL TRYING TO BRING A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE INTO
THE AREA. CURRENT TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING
THE U.P. BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THESE THINGS
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
FROM NORTHERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO UPPER MI SATURDAY AND INTO LOWER
MI SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH
WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN MN INTO UPPER MI. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER UPPER MI INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW SATURDAY EVENING...THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE 06Z AND
12Z GFS STILL REMAINS THE OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO PULL DRY AIR FROM
CANADA INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA TOO QUICKLY...AROUND 18Z...WHILE THE
EC/GEM KEEP THE MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z-06Z. THE NEW 06Z RUN
OF THE GFS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC/GEM...THEREFORE WILL HANG ON TO
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD
INTO MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER
WESTERN CANADA. THE GFS/EC AGAIN HAVE INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT ISSUES
FOR THIS LOW...WITH THE GFS STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...PLACING
THE THROUGH OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE EC
KEEPS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE...WILL STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WITH ABUNDANT SFC-H75 MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX/GRB/APX RAOBS IN
ADVANCE OF SFC WARM FNT IN THE LOWER GRT LKS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
N...EXPECT SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THRU
TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 SITES BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ON WED
RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT AS WEAK SFC HI PRES MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WITH GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT WINDS TO BE UNDER 25KT THRU THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS
NOT LIKELY UNTIL SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE
LAKE...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL WED NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
THEN LIKELY INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
249 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY REMAINS PRIMARY
CONCERN.
SUBJECTIVELY PLACED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN
NEBR INTO SWRN IA AT 19Z WITH CU FIELD THICKENING NEAR/SOUTH OF
IT...ALTHOUGH VIEW SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY HIGHER CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH
FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING SE OF THE REGION...AND
LEADS SOME SMALL DOUBTS TO WHAT MAY HAPPEN FARTHER NW...VARIOUS
MODEL QPF INCLUDING RAP/HRRR AND 4KM WRF DVLP PRECIP OVER SERN
ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVE LATEST SPC
RUC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWED SRN ZONES ON EDGE OF ML CAPE AXIS OF
3000-4000 J/KG WITH WEAKENED/NO CAP. LOW LEVEL/DEEPER SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SEE LATEST WATCH/MCD FOR INFO ON
THIS. SINCE SRN ZONES RECEIVED 1-2+ INCHES OF RAIN LAST EVENING...
RIVERS/STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH OR CLOSE TO FLOODING IN SOME
CASES. WITH FFG VALUES UNDER 2 INCHES...OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH SERN COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXTENDED WATCH TO NEBR
CITY/4 SW IA COUNTIES IN CASE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ALLOWS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD/DEVELOP N LATER THIS EVENING...BUT IT WAS NOTED
THAT 4KM WRF AND HRRR DROPPED CONVECTION SE THRU EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED POPS NRN ZONES TONIGHT TO REFLECT BETTER
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS N ACROSS THE
AREA CLOSER TO AND AFTER 06Z.
DIURNALLY DECREASED POPS THRU MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS CRASHING UPPER HGTS INTO CNTRL NEBR. THIS
COULD ALLOW A LITTLE EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...IF IT EVEN
DECREASES...AND COULD ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER A LARGER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
TRAINING POSSIBLE AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO MEAN
SHEAR VECTORS THRU WED EVENING...TRAINING OF ECHOES COULD ADD TO
FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS MAY NECESSITATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
A LARGER PART OF THE AREA FOR LATE WED/WED NIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS...BUT FOR NOW FIRST FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ADDRESS
SHORTER TERM FLOODING THREAT.
ACTIVE WEATHER COULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS JET WRAPS ACROSS
SRN ZONES ON SOUTH END OF CLOSING UPPER LOW. QUESTION WILL THEN
SHIFT TO AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN OVER AREA AS
UPPER TEMPS COOL BUT SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WRLY...
DOWNSLOPE...COMPONENT. FOR NOW MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS...WHICH WERE FAIRLY HIGH YET THROUGH THU
EVENING...BUT LOWERED LATE THU NGT. NO CHANGES MADE TO MODEST POPS
FRIDAY OR REST OF MODEL/PRIOR FORECAST BLEND REST OF FORECAST.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REALLY WARM TOMORROW AS SRLY
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF TROUGH AND WITH WRLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH RISK/UNCERTAINTY OF RESIDUAL
CLOUDS AND OR TSTMS...OPTED FOR LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH WAS FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
VFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL TREND BACK
INTO MVFR PRIMARILY WITH VSBYS GOING DOWN TO INTO THE 4SM CATEGORY
AFTER 10Z. AT KLNK AND KOMA HAVE ALSO BROUGHT IN TEMPO FOR -TSRA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY STARTING AT THAT SAME 10Z TIME PERIOD. HAVE
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF KOFK TAF FOR NOW THINKING THAT MOST ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG SOMEWHAT OF STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS BOTH THE KOMA AND KLNK TAF SITES. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO END OR MOVE EAST OF AREA AFTER 16Z WITH ANOTHER
SHORT REPRIEVE BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN INTO LATER FORECAST
PERIODS. OVERALL A VERY ACTIVE PATTER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
MEYER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...UPDATED AT 110 PM CDT...
FOR INFO ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH SEE ABOVE. OTHERWISE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR TURKEY CREEK AT WILBER. THOUGH IT HAS CRESTED AND
STARTED FALLING FOR NOW...IT IS FORECAST TO RISE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LITTLE AND BIG NEMAHA RIVERS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DID RISE TO JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT HAVE
SINCE STARTED TO DECLINE. WARNINGS ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MISSOURI
RIVER FROM PLATTSMOUTH DOWNSTREAM TO RULO FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OMAHA ON THE MISSOURI RIVER IS FORECAST TO
RISE...BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD LEVELS BUT WILL EVENTUALLY NEED
A FLOOD ADVISORY. THE NISHNABOTNA RIVER BASIN DID ALSO SEE
SIGNIFICANT IN BANK RISES...BUT REMAINED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND
HAVE STARTED TO FALL. A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ON THE LITTLE
SIOUX RIVER NEAR TURIN AS IT IS FORECAST TO GO ABOUT TWO FEET
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY.
MEYER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1054 AM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN
NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO UTAH AT THIS TIME WITH
DECREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATED FORECASTS TO
DECREASE SHOWERS COVERAGE TO SCATTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND
ISOLATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER THIS
EVENING. 91
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 242 AM /
SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO WET SHOWERY WEATHER WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND TOMORROW. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TODAY
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MAY. THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ON
TAP THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A PACIFIC CYCLONE PUMMELS INTO THE
SILVER STATE. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON
DIFFLUENT ONSHORE FLOW...ENHANCED PWS...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE
BISECTING THE REGION. THE INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT VECTORS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE LIONS SHARE OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WEST OF THE SIERRA. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT QPF
TO SPILL OVER INTO THE LKN CWA...WITH THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 PINGING
INTO .25 OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF OR MORE WITH THIS EVENT. THE LOWEST
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE SHELDON NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE...HOVERING BETWEEN 7100 AND 7300 FEET...AND CLOSER TO 8000
FEET FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. THE HRRR IMPLIES UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITIES THAT WOULD SUPPORT TSRA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE +200
J/KG AND NEGATIVE LIS ON THE NAM12. HOWEVER...KEEP TS ACTIVITY
ISOLATED IN THE GRIDS. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS TODAY. GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES AT 700M AND
500MB...EXPECTED THE STRONGEST WINDS TO MATERIALIZE OVER NORTHERN
NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. ISSUED A NPW FROM 21Z TO 03Z TODAY.
EXPECTING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE A SECOND REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NV RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. ALL MODELS
DEPICT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE WINDING DOWN SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
WORK EAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BREEZY TO MAYBE WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...SHOULD BE BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BY FRIDAY...RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE WEST...ACROSS
OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...SO SHOULD
SEE SOME WARMING AS WELL DURING THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEEKEND...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF A MIDWESTERN CANADIAN SYSTEM. SHOULD KEEP DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION...SCT/NMRS -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BY 18Z LATER THIS MORNING...VCTS POSSIBLE AT
KWMC...KELY...AND KEKO...CONTINUING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES. SHRA WILL TAPER TO -SHRA FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS AT THE THREE TAF LOCATIONS
W-NW10-20G30KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN KELY. KTPH SHOULD REMAIN
VFR...BUT WILL HAVE NW15-25G40KT...WITH POSSIBLE BLDU IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS ALL ZONES.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED TSRA. A
SECOND SLUG OF PACIFIC ENERGY WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN
MORE RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS IS LOCATED. EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...USHERING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
97/92/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
338 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING WITH IT
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT A LINGERING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. WE WILL EXPERIENCE DRIER WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT IT WILL BE HOT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE...
THE STEADIEST OF THE RAIN IS MOVING TO OUR EAST NOW. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOWEVER
BECAUSE WHILE MOST WILL SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION...ENOUGH SCT.
SHOWERS EXISTS AROUND TO WARRANT THESE POPS. MAIN ATTENTION
HOWEVER IS TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW NEAR
DETROIT. AS THE HRRR FIRST HINTED AT THIS MORNING...THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE ARW AND NMM ARE NOW FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BRINGING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND INTO OUR AREA. AT FIRST IT APPEARED THE MODELS MAY
BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
VALUES TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA. HOWEVER BASED ON WHAT IS
HAPPENING NOW...IT APPEARS THE CONVECTION WILL RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THE INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL FAVOR THE FINGER
LAKES AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z. THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY...WITH NOT AS MUCH
HAPPENING FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD KAVP. THUNDER IS LIKELY WITH THIS
AREA OF RAIN AS IT MOVES EAST. WHILE SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE EITHER 0
OR JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...WE ARE SEEING LIGHTNING NOW NEAR
DETROIT WITH THE SAME VALUES. IN ADDITION SHOWALTER VALUES GO
NEGATIVE OVERNIGHT. ALL AND ALL LOOKING AT A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN WITH THUNDER A GOOD BET. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA CHANCES FOR POPS WILL DECREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK
WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MOHAWK VALLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM UPDATE...
THE AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
IT HAS BEEN EXPANDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE FROM SPC. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FROM THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PA
NORTH THROUGH CNY WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT.
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE
WARM FRONT EITHER ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST IF NOT OVER NNY. THIS
COMBINED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING CLOSE BUT JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS GIVE US THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AT THIS EARLY
STAGE POINT TOWARD A LINEAR SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z
AND 0Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AND CONTINUE
TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND HWO.
AFTER THE CONVECTION DIES DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE HEAT BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGEST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NY...A DEVELOPING CAP
AROUND 10KT SHOULD KEEP OUR IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES FROM BEING A
PROBLEM. 850 TEMPS BETWEEN 15C TO 18C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S BOTH DAYS...WITH NEAR 90 OR LOWER 90S LIKELY ESPECIALLY BY
FRIDAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
VRY FEW CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM FCST THIS AFTN. ONLY TWEAK WAS
TO INCRS POPS AS IT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY REASONABLE THAT ALL MODELS,
INCLUDING ENSEMBLES, SHOWING FROPA OCCURRING ARND 12Z MONDAY.
THUS, HV BOOSTED POPS TO LKLY SUN NGT FOR STARTERS THO THESE MAY
NEED TO BE TWEAKED WITH LATER FCSTS.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING THAT TROFFING WL BE MVG TWD THE
WRN LAKES ON SUN NGT. WITH THIS FEATURE MVG CLOSER TO CWA, CLDS WL
OVRSPRD THE REGION DRG THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SLGTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED, THO STILL ABV NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
IFR CONDITIONS AT KELM AND KBGM TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING THROUGH WITH MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS.
ONCE THIS RAIN MOVES THROUGH, A BREAK IS EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL
RETURN TO MVFR BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH AFTER 04Z. STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN WILL AFFECT KITH/KELM/KBGM
AND KAVP, THUS HAVE LEFT PCPN MENTION OUT OF THESE TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME. FURTHER NORTH AT KSYR AND KRME HAVE INCLUDED SHOWER
MENTION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE -TSRA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z.
WINDS AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE ESE WITH GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY 12Z BETWEEN 10-15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
THU-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED...BRINGING A
RETURN TO SUMMERTIME HEAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY BY THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...IMPRESSIVE WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN PAINTS THE
PICTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION DRAPED
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...INTO IOWA...AND EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...BOUNDS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE CONTROLLING THE SYNOPTIC REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
WHILE CU HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE
CLOUDS IS QUITE LIMITED THANKS TO WEAK FORCING AND INCREASING
CONVECTIVE LID BENEATH BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT. HAVE KEPT POP
JUST BELOW THRESHOLD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HRRR CONTINUING TO
SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY...BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE OVER
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION SO HAVE IGNORED IT AND
LEANED ON ARW/NAM WHICH KEEP TODAY DRY. CONVECTIVE/DIURNAL CU WILL
SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTN/EVE...AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...OVERALL A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED.
WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING THIS AFTN ON MOIST SE FLOW...CROSSOVER TEMPS
WILL BE APPROACHED TONIGHT. ATTM DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO BE EXCEEDED
HOWEVER...MINS FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID/UPR 60S...AND THIS COMBINED
WITH 15 KTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD FOG. STILL...HAVE LEFT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEAD TO A BENIGN SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
PRIMARILY BE PERSISTENCE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
PEE DEE/LBT AREAS AND LOWER 80S COASTAL SECTIONS (NEAR 80 BEACHES)
EACH DAY. MEANWHILE EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO TO SUPPORT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT. COULD SEE PATCHY FLOG EACH
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME STRATUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY APPEARS TO OFFER A CONVECTIVE MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE PUMPING WARMTH AND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BUT UPPER RIDGING MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH AN
INFLUENCE AT CAPPING ALL BUT ISO COVERAGE. NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE
OF PIEDMONT TROUGH SO IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE SEA BREEZE. OVER THE
WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND RELAXES ITS SUPPRESSING
EFFECTS ON CONVECTION. COVERAGE MAY STILL BE ISOLATED IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANYTHING BUT MESOSCALE FORCING AND SO THE SEA BREEZE SEEMS THE
MOST LIKELY CULPRIT. SHOULD THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BE QUICK
ENOUGH IT MAY SPREAD SW INCREASING WINDS OVER MAINLY WRN ZONES TO
ENHANCE POPS THERE BUT WITH THE ANTECEDENT RIDGE THINK IT/LL BE
SLOWER. IN FACT THE EFFECTS OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CAN BE SEEN IN
THE WAY GUIDANCE HANDLES THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH...IT BECOMES
GRADUALLY POSITIVELY TILTED WITH TIME. AS A RESULT INTO NEXT WEEK
THE FRONT IT DRIVES DECELERATES. ITS PROXIMITY TO OUR NW COULD
FUNNEL EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. TRUE TO A WARM SEASON
PATTERN THERE ARE LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES
EITHER FROM ONE ANOTHER OR FROM CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP US IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA
BREEZE RESULTANT THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT FEEL THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. SOUTH SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...BUT GIVEN THE WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE AROUND 15
KTS...THINK ANY FOG WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED VFR
WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR FOG THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...CREATING RELATIVELY WEAK SE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BUOYS TODAY HAVE SHOWN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
10 KTS...AND EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN ROUGHLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...WIND-WAVE CONTRIBUTION TO THE
SPECTRUM IS LIMITED...SO A 2-3FT/9SEC SE SWELL WILL DOMINATE AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IN A STAGNANT PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DIRECTION THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
AND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FETCH EXPECT SEAS TO
RANGE FROM 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...SE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
THE HIGHS RIDGE AXIS RETREATS SLIGHTLY OUT TO SEA. OTHER THAN THAT
SMALL VEER THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE VARIATION IN WIND AND/OR SEAS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LOCATED
OFF THE COAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED...BRINGING A
RETURN TO SUMMERTIME HEAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY BY THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...BEAUTIFUL DAY BEGINNING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AS COMBINATION OF BERMUDA HIGH AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE COMBINE TO
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CLEARLY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ROTATING
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY...FROM TEXAS TO IOWA TO PENNSYLVANIA. SE OF
THIS BOUNDARY...BULGING THICKNESSES WILL CAP THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER...VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPS...LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT PARCELS WILL
BECOME BUOYANT THIS AFTN AND RISE TOWARDS THE CONVECTIVE LID. WHILE
THIS HAPPENS...THE ENTIRE COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM THANKS TO INCREASING
MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING...SO IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL WARMING TO DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS
CAN DEVELOP TODAY. CURRENTLY...ONLY THE HRRR DEPICTS ANY SHOWERS
TODAY...FOCUSED ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. WHILE IT IS
LOGICAL THAT ONLY THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
STRONG ENOUGH TODAY TO PUSH THROUGH THE LID (HENCE WHY THE TERM CAP
IS NOT BEING USED)...THIS MODEL HAS BEEN OVER-AGGRESSIVE THE PAST
FEW DAYS. HAVE INHERITED JUST-BELOW-THRESHOLD POP...AND CHOOSE TO
LEAVE UNCHANGED FOR NOW. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTN...BUT WILL HANDLE THIS WITH NEAR-TERM UPDATES AS REQUIRED.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TODAY WILL ALSO BE NOTICED AS GRADIENT IS
JUST A BIT STRONGER AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE WITHIN THE RESULTANT THIS AFTN...WHERE WIND GUSTS TO
20 MPH WILL BE FREQUENT FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER
SUNSET BENEATH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BUT
CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...UP TO 15 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION...WILL KEEP MINS ELEVATED TONIGHT AS THEY WILL FALL ONLY
INTO THE MID 60S. HAVE LEFT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS SINCE
CROSSOVER TEMPS MAY BE MET TONIGHT THANKS TO LONG-DURATION MOIST
ADVECTION OFF THE OCEAN TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WARM MOIST
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS UP IN THE 60S.
ALTHOUGH MORE HUMID SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...LOCALIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
THIS WILL KEEP VERY DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
BASICALLY ABOVE 4K FT. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL ONLY BE AROUND AN
INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S
MOST PLACES DURING THE DAY EXCEPT COOLER AT THE BEACHES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. MAY SEE SOME CU DEVELOP ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH DAY BUT OTHERWISE
WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIP TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOSING ITS
GRIP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD THE WAY TO INCREASED CHC
OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION BUT WITHOUT MUCH FORCING ALOFT WOULD
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CU BUILDING IN CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY LATE MONDAY MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD AND
ALONG THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S AND DAY TIME HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP US IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA
BREEZE RESULTANT THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT FEEL THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. SOUTH SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...BUT GIVEN THE WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE AROUND 15
KTS...THINK ANY FOG WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED VFR
WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR FOG THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN
SOME TWEAKS TO SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...THEN DISSIPATE MID TO LATE EVE. S TO SSE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCES...SUSTAINED AT UP TO 15 KT AND ON THE GUSTY SIDE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. NO SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL JETTING NOTED
FOR TONIGHT AND SO WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE LATE EVE AND
OVERNIGHT. SE SWELL WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS PERIOD...
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT...LARGELY THE RESULT OF AN 8 TO 9
SECOND SE SWELL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY RELAXED WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS BUT SPIKING UP A BIT IN
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GRADUAL BUILD FROM 1 TO 3 FT UP
TO 2 TO 4 FT IN PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL AROUND THE HIGH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY RELAXED WITH WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY
SUNDAY. THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL BUILD SEA GRADUALLY UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS AND CLOSER TO 2 FT NEAR SHORE.
WILL SEE SPIKE IN WINDS AND SLIGHT CHOP NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON
IN SEA BREEZE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST MN AND WILL
SHIFT HIGHER CHANCE POPS INTO THIS REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...DID ADD SOME 30 POPS
WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF 20S. CLOUDS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED-
BROKEN WEST OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO VALLEY CITY AND THINK
SURFACE HEATING AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT THESE 20-30
POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT
THINK ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD FALL APART BY 03 UTC. ALSO ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDER TO WEATHER GRIDS HAVING OBSERVED A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTH OF THE BORDER.
WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TAKING MORE TIME TO PUSH EAST/DISSIPATE...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ANOTHER 2 TO 4
DEGREES. AREAS THAT REACH THE LOW 70S WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ND
WITH MOST OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN STAYING IN THE 60S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
15 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ND...MOVING INTO CANADA AROUND 20 MPH. ANY ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO EASTERN ND AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS.
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...DID DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALL
OTHER AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUN TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. OVERALL...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE FA AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
IS CAUSING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE UPPER
WAVE. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
STILL EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO COMBINE WITH UPPER JET STREAK
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...WHICH THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
THERE ARE A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. WILL KEEP THE ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NE FA. HRRR/RAP/4-KM WRF MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEATING COMBINES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
OTHERWISE...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS RIDGING AFFECTS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE HAVE A SIMILAR IDEA...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED
MODEL AS PER THE PMDHMD. FOR WED NIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SURGE OF INSTABILITY AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...THE ECMWF IS AROUND 40 KNOTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...AND CAN IMAGINE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...BUT NOT AN OUTBREAK SCENARIO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. THESE CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVE
INTO THE REGION. IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL CLOSE OFF WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
BE WHERE EVER THIS BOUNDARY STALLS. HOWEVER...PWATS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED (NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET)...AND WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
VALLEY.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF 500MB
CLOSED LOW AT 12 FRI CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND. THE
HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITHIN THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AND
WHERE IT STALLS. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO STALL IT NORTH OF
THE CWFA WHEREAS THE GFS STALLS IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE POSSIBLE.
THE DRIER SOLNS WOULD BRING THE DRY SLOT ACROSS THE CWFA ON
FRIDAY. ALL SOLNS BRING DEFORMATION RAIN BANDS THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...GFS FASTER TO EXIT SAT AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY 500MB RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
QUITE WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
CIGS/VSBY A CHALLENGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NC
NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ATTENDANT TROF EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR JMS.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAINLY MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER THE AREA...BUT VIS
SATELLITE SHOWS MORE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AND SCATTERING SKIES WITH
INCREASED HEATING. EXPECT SCATTERING OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH INCREASING CLOUD/CIG HEIGHTS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND REFLECTED
SAME IN THE TAFS. A BIT OF DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AS INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOOK FOR THAT TO
EXPAND EAST ACROSS ND INTO MN THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT THRU THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...BUT LOOKING FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR PEMBINA...WALSH...AND EASTERN CAVALIER
COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ALTHOUGH THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED
AND MANY AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN HIGH...OVERLAND FLOOD
CONCERNS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
OTHERWISE...MOST RIVERS OVER THE REGION HAVE CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
RECEDE OR ARE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY...WITH NO FORECAST POINTS
CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO
1.50 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 OR MORE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...AND COULD HAVE IMPACTS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE
IT FALLS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...HOPKINS
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
704 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WAY NORTH OF THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE QUESTION IS STILL HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. WE HAVE REACHED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE
AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE AND MOIST BUT COULD BE MORE UNSTABLE. SOME OF
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE TO THE NORTH IN MICHIGAN. WENT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS. ACCORDING TO THE HRRR MODEL AND THE 4KM WRF NMM MODEL
ANOTHER WAVE WILL HIT THE AREA AFTER DARK. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT.
WENT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH THE LOWS BECAUSE OF THE MODERATELY HIGH
DEW POINTS. THREAT FOR SEVERE CONTINUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY IS TOUGH...SOME CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AREA IN THE
MORNING BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CHANCE GOING.
DRY AND MUGGY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT MAY JUST BE
ISOLATED SO LEFT IT OUT FOR THE MOMENT. INCLUDED A CHANCE STARTING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AFTER THAT THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING TAKING THE RAIN
WITH IT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
AS A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY LEFT LIKELY POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. BOTH MODELS PUSH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OVER THE
AREA BY TUESDAY SO SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL PERSIST THRU
THE TAF PERIOD BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LACKING. WIDELY
SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. ONLY TAF SITE WITH DECENT THREAT FOR TSRA NEXT
FEW HOURS APPEARS TO BE ERI.
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TEND TO STAY 8
KNOTS OR MORE SO DON`T THINK FOG WILL BECOME TOO MUCH OF A
PROBLEM...MAYBE SOME LOCAL MVFR AT THE FAVORED INLAND LOCATIONS. SW
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO BE GUSTING 22 TO 25 KNOTS BY
MIDDAY WED.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT. CONVECTION LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE LAKE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH A HOT AND
MUGGY AIRMASS OVER A MUCH COOLER LAKE WILL BE HARD FOR WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
351 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WAY NORTH OF THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE QUESTION IS STILL HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. WE HAVE REACHED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE
AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE AND MOIST BUT COULD BE MORE UNSTABLE. SOME OF
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE TO THE NORTH IN MICHIGAN. WENT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS. ACCORDING TO THE HRRR MODEL AND THE 4KM WRF NMM MODEL
ANOTHER WAVE WILL HIT THE AREA AFTER DARK. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT.
WENT ON THE WARMSIDE WITH THE LOWS BECAUSE OF THE MODERATELY HIGH
DEW POINTS. THREAT FOR SEVERE CONTINUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY IS TOUGH...SOME CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AREA IN THE
MORNING BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CHANCE GOING.
DRY AND MUGGY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT MAY JUST BE
ISOLATED SO LEFT IT OUT FOR THE MOMENT. INCLUDED A CHANCE STARTING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AFTER THAT THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING TAKING THE RAIN
WITH IT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
AS A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY LEFT LIKELY POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. BOTH MODELS PUSH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OVER THE
AREA BY TUESDAY SO SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR A DTW TO ERI TO PIT LINE. WARM UNSTABLE
AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. CAPES HAVE RISEN TO 2500
J/KG IN THE WEST TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CAPES TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 2000-4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FROM
MORNING SHOWERS HAVE HELPED INSULATE AREA FROM TSRA FOR NOW.
EXPECT TSRA TO BUILD SW FROM SE LOWER MICHIGAN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK
COULD SEE ISOLATED SEVERE TSRA WIND GUSTS...BUT DO NOT NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK. SECOND WAVE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS TSRA
DEVELOP FROM ILLINOIS TO OKLAHOMA. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TIMING OF THE TSRA...SO USED TEMPOS IN TAFS TO GIVE WINDOW OF
BEST OPPORTUNITY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT. CONVECTION LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE LAKE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH A HOT AND
MUGGY AIRMASS OVER A MUCH COOLER LAKE WILL BE HARD FOR WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT EXITING NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
HEAT/HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON TO END OF THE WEEK. NO ORGANIZED
FRONTS IN VICINITY UNTIL WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...INGESTED RECENT OBS. OVERALL FCST GENERALLY ON
TRACK. TWEAKED POPS AND SKY JUST A BIT TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...INCLUDING LOWERING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NE ZONES
AND INCREASING POPS A TAD WITH THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER.
AT 10Z ON THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT...SHALLOW SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW
NORTH OF AREA.
A MID LEVEL 700 MB TROF AXIS WAS DEPICTED ON RAP AND VAD WINDS NR
ILN TO SDF AT 08Z...THEN CMH TO LEX AT 10Z. WEAK SUPPORT ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE CROSSES OUR NORTHERN ZONES 12Z THRU 15Z. SO HAVE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING FOR A LIGHT SHOWER.
YET...RAP FORECASTING SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THAT VORT AXIS DRAGGING
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM AND GFS ON THEIR 00Z
RUNS...SHOW MID LEVEL WARMING AT AROUND 8 TO 10 THSD FT TRYING TO
FORM A CAP. SO WILL ONLY LEAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER.
THE WARM UP STARTS IN EARNEST TODAY. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO OUR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE LINGERS OVERNIGHT...SO PATCHES OF 4 TO 7
THSD FT CLOUDS MAY STILL BE HANGING AROUND LATE TONIGHT. OF
COURSE...THIS CAUSES US HEADACHES TRYING TO FIGURE THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WHICH BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A BIT EACH DAY. THE
RIDGE STARTS BREAKING DOWN BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. PRECIP WISE...HAVE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE INSTABILITY...AND ALSO INCLUDED SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN
SE OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL A BIT AND A 500MB
RIPPLE STREAMS ACROSS OHIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM...GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE
DOWN FASTER ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
EARLY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER
THE SE STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NOT ALLOWING FOR FROPA ACROSS OUR CWA
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MORE LINEAR SOLUTION OF
THE GFS AND EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT ON ECMWF TIMING...ZONAL FLOW
APPEARS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH OUT TO DAY 6 AND 7.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SCATTERED
CEILINGS AROUND 6KFT TO 8KFT WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS SE OHIO OR NE WEST VIRGINIA.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SUBSIDE BY
ABOUT 00Z. OVERNIGHT A FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL DECK SHOULD
PERSIST WITH ANY PRECIP ENDING BY 03Z. DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WITH THE CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE AT THE USUAL SPOTS SUCH AS EKN. FEW TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WED MORNING AS WELL...WITH MORE BREAKS EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF PRECIP MAY VARY SLIGHTLY. REDUCED
VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE AT
THE OK TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
CIG ATTM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND GUSTS
WILL REDEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS
OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR TODAY.
WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS IS FOR NOW...DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER. WIND GUSTS HAVE SO FAR REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLD...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING FOR THAT AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING
WITH PROFILER NETWORK ANALYZING A SWLY 55-65KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ORIENTED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
STORMS OVER CENTRAL MO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACK-BUILDING ALONG JET
AXIS TOWARD NW ARKANSAS. ALSO AN APPARENT WAVE EMBEDDED IN WSW
FLOW ALOFT TO OUR WEST. LOCAL MODEL AND HRRR LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO
NAM SOLUTION OF BREAKING OUT PRECIP ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING AND MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE
MORNING PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME STRONGLY CAPPED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LATER THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY
LINE FAR TO OUR WEST.
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH IN NE OKLAHOMA...BUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY IT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY. MIXING MAY ALSO BE
HAMPERED A BIT BY CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AS
STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ONSHORE SLIDES EAST. THIS WILL GIVE
DRY LINE STORMS TO OUR WEST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETTER
SUPPORT TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN OK AND
POSSIBLY FAR NW ARKANSAS. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT EARLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER THU AFTERNOON AND WITH UPPER JET IN
FAVORABLE POSITION...THIS PERIOD WILL OFFER GREATEST THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST WIND PROFILES
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER.
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF PLEASANTLY COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES. A LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US STILL SET TO KICK OUT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND CLOSING OFF
ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR TONIGHT...AN INITIAL WAVE WILL EJECT OUT
TONIGHT INTO OUR REGION BRINGING AN MCS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS BOTH SHOW
AN MCS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD TONIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CWA...IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORE FOG TO
FORM FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND EAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A GOOD LLJ ALONG WITH GOOD
LOW AND MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL AID IN NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD
ASCENT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW A GOOD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN EASTERN
COLORADO LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND DEEPENING.
EVERYTHING IS SET FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES AND HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THING THAT MAY
HOLD OFF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EARLY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HOLD BACK THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. MADE SOME CALLS IN THE HEAVY
RAIN AREAS TODAY AND IT SEEMS MOST OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD SOAKED IN PRETTY GOOD. HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
ADDING IN THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY END THURSDAY MORNING IN
THE EASTERN CWA AS THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT SWINGS IN QUICKLY
THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA. IN FACT...IT
MAY BECOME WINDY ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH
GOOD MIXING. LOWERED POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES ARE REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY
NIGHT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEPENDING
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY COULD BE PRETTY CHILLY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS
SUGGESTING 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. THANKFULLY THE GFS/GEM DEPICT SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...TO THE MID 60S EXPECTED. SUNDAY WILL MARK
THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY
REACHING ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD FOR THE TERMINALS OF KPIR/KMBG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02-06Z FOR KPIR. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO
MVFR RANGE UNDER STRONGER STORMS. IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER THE KABR/KATY
TERMINALS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN
VFR STATUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THAT SAID...DUE TO
AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE KATY TERMINAL TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
119 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH MCV TRACKING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE OVER OUR CWA...AND THUS AS
EXPECTED THE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY IS THUS
EXPECTED...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. CONCERNED ABOUT
LOW STRATUS AND FOG LINGERING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
THOUGH. FLOW BECOMES PRETTY WEAK TODAY...WITH NOT MUCH OF A PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THUS STRATUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER. THESE HIGHS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE NEWER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. LOOKING AT READINGS AROUND
70 SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ADJUSTMENTS UP OR
DOWN AREA LIKELY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER EVOLUTION...THUS ANOTHER
LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...ADVECTING IN RICH THETAE AIR AND HIGH
PWATS. MEANWHILE IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS
ANOTHER WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND THIS EVOLUTION
IS SUPPORTED BY ALMOST ALL HI RES GUIDANCE. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AS DESPITE THE THETAE
ADVECTION...WE DRY OUT ENOUGH TODAY THAT WE DONT QUITE COMPLETELY
RECOVER IN TIME. HOWEVER MAY SEE THE LINE OF STORMS MAKE IT INTO OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 03Z BEFORE IT DOES DISSIPATE...AND THUS
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH THAT ACTIVITY.
EVENTUALLY THE CONTINUED THETAE ADVECTION BECOMES ENOUGH TO SATURATE
US ENOUGH AND DEVELOP ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THUS THOUGHT IS SHOWERS
AND STORMS START BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SEEING MUCH TOO MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
SATURATED THIN CAPE PROFILE. HOWEVER WIND FIELDS ARE STRONGER...THUS
A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ANYTIME
WEDNESDAY. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ENDS UP GOING. BUT HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO FAVOR MUCH OF THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WITH
CONVECTION CONTINUOUSLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OR EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN WIND. GIVEN THE
TRAINING POTENTIAL AND HIGH PWATS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DAY WITH
AN ELEVATED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
WE MAY SEE A BREAK FOR A PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS THE TRAINING WAA CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER ATTENTION THEN TURNS YO OUR WEST AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS WITH THIS WAVE...AND THEN MOVE INTO OUR CWA ANYTIME
FROM THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE TOO HIGH...BUT WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TI SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUS THINKING OUR GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT MAY END UP BEING WITH THIS ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING
OR NIGHT. A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IN OUR WEST...BUT TIMING
SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION WOULD PROBABLY BE LINEAR BY THE TIME IT
IMPACTS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH STRONG WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WEDNESDAY...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE. THUS BY
THURSDAY THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29...AND DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. THUS SEVERE
THREAT ON THURSDAY SHOULD END UP SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. BY LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH GOING ON
ACROSS OUR AREA. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT THIS AGAIN DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. AREAS THAT SEE
SUN COULD REACH THE 80S BOTH DAYS...WHILE 60S ARE A POSSIBILITY
WHERE CLOUDS HOLD TOUGH.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FINALLY
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD ND AND MN LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS MEANS QUIETER WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH ONE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE CHANCES OF ANY ONE LOCATION
GETTING A WETTING RAIN IS FAIRLY REMOTE. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW LIFTING
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER DOWN PROMISING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY AND MONDAY...70S SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
MVFR CEILINGS QUICKLY ADVECTING EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT
08Z. AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ADVECT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM
ABOUT 11Z THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHENARD/MJF
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A MODEST 70KT H25 JET STREAK DOWNSTREAM. A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE PLAINS...ARCING SOUTHWEST TO
THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE DROPPING SOUTH FROM A TRIPLE POINT
IN SOUTHWEST KS. A DEEP PLUME OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WAS
FOUND IN THE WARM SECTOR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM THE
BIG BEND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS
ENHANCED H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE PERSISTED ALL DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG
COUNTRY...SUPPRESSING DIURNAL HEATING AND CAPPING OFF THE STRONG
INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED IN THE MID 60S AREAWIDE.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW THIS DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE 19Z RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG /WITH CINH ALL BUT GONE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN
TIER WHERE WERE HAVE MANAGED TO SEE A LITTLE SUN. THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE OVERDONE WHEN COMPARED TO THE EXPERIMENTAL ESRL RAP VERSION
AS WELL AS THE NAM POINT SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
CINH STILL PRESENT. I DO ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS
FIRING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION AS THEY MOVE EAST. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WITH A
STOUT LOW LEVEL JET AND AT LEAST SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WE MAY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. I EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE WITH MOST AREAS
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 70.
WEDNESDAY/S CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS QUITE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON
WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LASTING INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL HELP ERODE ANY CAP
AND WE MAY SEE RATHER JUNKY...DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY
IN THE DAY. IF THE CAP HOLDS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2000 J/KG AND 35+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXISTING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME AND I HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S.
JOHNSON
.LONG TERM...
BY TOMORROW EVENING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA WILL BE
ENDING FROM THE WEST TOMORROW EVENING...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GIVE US
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH CHANCES INCREASING LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
BEFORE STALLING SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD PREFRONTAL WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S BOTH DAYS. SUNDAY HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S ON MONDAY.
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 60S
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 71 85 68 94 73 / 30 30 30 10 5
SAN ANGELO 71 86 70 94 74 / 20 20 20 10 5
JUNCTION 71 85 66 92 71 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.AVIATION...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT KLBB AND KCDS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...IMPACTING KLBB
BY AROUND 21Z AND KCDS NEAR THE 23Z TIME FRAME AS ACTIVITY MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST. INSERTED MVFR CEILINGS AND VCTS AT THESE
RESPECTIVE TIMES...LIFTING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR BY 03Z AT KLBB
AND 04Z AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LOCATION AND INTENSITY WILL DEPEND
ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SLOT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRYING PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DOWNSTREAM OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR THESE CELLS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY FARTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THEY LOSE THEIR SOURCE OF LIFT.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER
EAST OF A TULIA TO TATUM LINE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WIND
FIELDS ARE REMAINING BACKED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK...MOST
NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. LEE
TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW THE
DRYLINE TO HOLD ON THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG AN
APPROXIMATE TULIA TO BROWNFIELD LINE. DISCRETE CELLS SHOULD
DEVELOP INITIALLY GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING INTO A LINE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS DEEP LAYER FORCING
INCREASES. LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING
WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTING INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR WITH THIS WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHILE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN DECIDEDLY MIXED REGARDING HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION LATER THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST WRF/NAM APPEARS QUITE SHOWERY BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH WANING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING OWING TO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHILE THE LATEST RAP ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS
THE RELEASE OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY UNTIL AFTER NOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
EXPLODE ALONG THE SURFACE DRY-LINE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WHAT SEEMS CERTAIN IS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD UP INTO THE AREA LATER IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THEREFORE...WE REMAIN LESS CONFIDENT HOW THIS MAY IMPACT REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ENERGY LATER TODAY. WE HAVE SOMEWHAT SPLIT BETWEEN THE
POSSIBLE CHOICES...HOLDING CHANCES LOW THIS MORNING THOUGH RETAINING
MODEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAXIMUM POTENTIAL ENERGY AND SHEAR PROFILES LATER TODAY CERTAINLY
SUGGEST OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE OR EVEN
VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WHILE HELICITY LEVELS AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRY-LINE WOULD OFFER ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL WITH
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3000-6000 FEET. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL WITH OUR REDUCED CONFIDENCE...WE THINK IT MAY BE BEST
TO LEAN A BIT TOWARDS THE WORSER OUTCOME UNTIL CLARITY IMPROVES. WE
INCREASED CHANCES SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...RETAINING SEVERE
MENTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MINOR CHANGES FOR MAJORITY
OF GRID FIELDS. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW FAR THE DRYLINE WILL
MOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER
WEST TEXAS MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THIS POINT...WEST TEXAS WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FAVORABLE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL JET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE LIFT
BEGINNING EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BECOME UNCAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH PROGGED CAPE VALUES CRESTING AT 3000-3500 J/KG. INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING SUPERCELLS.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE THE FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION
WITH SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY NORMAL TO THE DRYLINE.
SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY KEEPING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MOSTLY DRY. BY LATE ON
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA
WHICH MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE EXISTS A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THE
MOMENT IN REGARDS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT.
NONETHELESS...HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A POSSIBILITY WHEREVER THE FRONT
DOES BECOME STATIONARY. JDV
FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH
PLAINS BOTH AFTERNOONS. DEEP MIXING WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EVEN
FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY SPAWNING A LARGER CRITICAL AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 92 58 93 59 / 30 20 0 0 0
TULIA 67 89 59 92 61 / 30 20 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 67 90 61 94 63 / 30 20 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 68 93 61 95 63 / 30 20 10 0 0
LUBBOCK 68 92 64 95 65 / 30 20 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 68 93 60 96 65 / 30 20 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 69 93 63 96 64 / 30 20 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 69 86 69 95 70 / 30 40 30 10 10
SPUR 69 88 68 95 69 / 30 30 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 71 87 72 94 71 / 30 40 30 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
APPROX 21Z. DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO LIFT
CIGS TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN THE THE AREA AFTER
05Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER KSOA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE KBBD TERMINAL AFTER 00Z THOUGH WINDS WILL
STILL BE ABOVE 10 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE KSOA...KSJT...AND KABI TERMINALS.
THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE. FOR THIS REASON I LEFT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK BUT WILL WORK TO KEEP TEMPS IN
THE 70S FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOW THIS AFFECTS AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION CHANCES REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AND THE CAP MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. THAT
SAID...IF WE GET A FEW HOURS OF HEATING...IT SHOULD NOT BE THAT
BIG OF AN ISSUE. THIS WOULD PUT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE THE
GREATEST HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
RADAR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS SITUATION EVOLVES. THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS AND EXPAND POPS
FARTHER EAST. OTHERWISE...MOST CHANGES WERE RELATIVELY MINOR.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS BEEN RATHER SPORADIC THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL HANDLE MVFR
CIGS WITH TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING WITH PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
FORMED WEST OF THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL TO BE AFFECT BY THIS ACTIVITY IS KSJT AND HAVE INCLUDED
A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER UNTIL 14Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. NORTHERN
TERMINALS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION BUT DUE TO TIMING
AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS
RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADD POPS THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE TRANS PECOS REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY AND EXPANDS IT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND THOUGH
BUT DID ADD MENTIONABLE POPS THIS MORNING MAINLY WEST OF A
THROCKMORTON...TO MILLERSVIEW...TO OZONA LINE. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THROUGH TONIGHT..
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. LEE
SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN
TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE DRYLINE WILL SETUP
ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHEST POPS
WERE ORIENTED NORTH AND WEST OF A HASKEL...TO SAN ANGELO...TO
OZONA LINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.
24
LONG TERM...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE ONGOING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...FROM ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ...I BELIEVE THAT
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AND
MIGRATE TOWARD OUR WESTERN BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 50
KNOTS...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AND LOWS NEAR 70. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SEND A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY
TROUGH SUNDAY. SLOW MOVING...LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS LIKE THIS ONE
HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STALL...AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...BUT THE
DETAILS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DANIELS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 86 71 85 71 91 / 30 30 30 30 10
SAN ANGELO 88 72 88 70 94 / 20 20 30 20 10
JUNCTION 86 73 85 72 90 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SLOT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRYING PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DOWNSTREAM OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR THESE CELLS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY FARTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THEY LOSE THEIR SOURCE OF LIFT.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER
EAST OF A TULIA TO TATUM LINE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WIND
FIELDS ARE REMAINING BACKED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK...MOST
NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. LEE
TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW THE
DRYLINE TO HOLD ON THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG AN
APPROXIMATE TULIA TO BROWNFIELD LINE. DISCRETE CELLS SHOULD
DEVELOP INITIALLY GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING INTO A LINE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS DEEP LAYER FORCING
INCREASES. LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING
WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTING INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
AVIATION...
INITIAL SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH PERMIAN BASIN SEEM
UNLIKELY TO SPREAD INTO EITHER TAF SITE...AT LEAST NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHOULD THESE SHOWERS STAY AWAY...THE CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE BASICALLY FOLLOWS THIS PLAN RETAINING BEST
THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE DAY. A NEAR MVFR STRATUS LAYER IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD CLOSE TO KCDS BY LATE MORNING AS WELL...
THOUGH CEILING REMAINS DOUBTFUL. LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR WITH THIS WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHILE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN DECIDEDLY MIXED REGARDING HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION LATER THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST WRF/NAM APPEARS QUITE SHOWERY BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH WANING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING OWING TO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHILE THE LATEST RAP ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS
THE RELEASE OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY UNTIL AFTER NOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
EXPLODE ALONG THE SURFACE DRY-LINE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WHAT SEEMS CERTAIN IS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD UP INTO THE AREA LATER IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THEREFORE...WE REMAIN LESS CONFIDENT HOW THIS MAY IMPACT REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ENERGY LATER TODAY. WE HAVE SOMEWHAT SPLIT BETWEEN THE
POSSIBLE CHOICES...HOLDING CHANCES LOW THIS MORNING THOUGH RETAINING
MODEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAXIMUM POTENTIAL ENERGY AND SHEAR PROFILES LATER TODAY CERTAINLY
SUGGEST OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE OR EVEN
VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WHILE HELICITY LEVELS AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRY-LINE WOULD OFFER ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL WITH
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3000-6000 FEET. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL WITH OUR REDUCED CONFIDENCE...WE THINK IT MAY BE BEST
TO LEAN A BIT TOWARDS THE WORSER OUTCOME UNTIL CLARITY IMPROVES. WE
INCREASED CHANCES SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...RETAINING SEVERE
MENTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MINOR CHANGES FOR MAJORITY
OF GRID FIELDS. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW FAR THE DRYLINE WILL
MOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER
WEST TEXAS MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THIS POINT...WEST TEXAS WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FAVORABLE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL JET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE LIFT
BEGINNING EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BECOME UNCAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH PROGGED CAPE VALUES CRESTING AT 3000-3500 J/KG. INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING SUPERCELLS.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE THE FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION
WITH SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY NORMAL TO THE DRYLINE.
SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY KEEPING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MOSTLY DRY. BY LATE ON
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA
WHICH MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE EXISTS A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THE
MOMENT IN REGARDS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT.
NONETHELESS...HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A POSSIBILITY WHEREVER THE FRONT
DOES BECOME STATIONARY. JDV
FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH
PLAINS BOTH AFTERNOONS. DEEP MIXING WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EVEN
FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY SPAWNING A LARGER CRITICAL AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 65 92 58 93 / 20 30 20 0 0
TULIA 89 67 89 59 92 / 40 30 20 10 0
PLAINVIEW 88 67 90 61 94 / 40 30 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 91 68 93 61 95 / 40 30 20 10 0
LUBBOCK 88 68 92 64 95 / 40 30 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 94 68 93 60 96 / 30 30 20 0 0
BROWNFIELD 91 69 93 63 96 / 40 30 20 10 0
CHILDRESS 87 69 86 69 95 / 40 30 40 30 10
SPUR 87 69 88 68 95 / 40 30 30 20 10
ASPERMONT 86 71 87 72 94 / 40 30 40 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1245 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE TAIL OF A FAINT IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS FROM WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND COMBINES WITH HEATING AND RETURNING DEEPER MOISTURE.
MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MODEST CAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST ALTHOUGH APPEARS FOCUS LACKING
HEADING EAST. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SHRA/TSRA
UNZIPPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM SW TO NE AS AIDED BY DIFF
HEATING EARLY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE PER LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING
MORE SOUTHERLY LATER ON. SIMILAR DEPICTION FROM THE RNK-WRF AND
TO SOME DEGREE THE LATEST NAM SUPPORT AT LEAST A SCATTERING OF
POPS BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT AND
PERHAPS LATER OUTFLOW. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT POPS ESLW FOR A POP UP
STORM OR TWO WITH LEAST COVERAGE SE. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LOOK
TO COME FROM PULSE NATURE STORMS IF CONVECTION CAN GET DEEP ENOUGH
GIVEN STEEP LAPSES AND LOW WET BULB ZERO VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.
MORNING THICKNESS OFF RAOBS SHOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S WEST GIVEN INCREASING INSOLATION AFTER EARLY MID DECK...AND
MOSTLY MID 80S EAST AS A DECENT 85H JET MIXES DOWN SOME OF THE
INVADING WARMER AIR ALOFT.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL GO AWAY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RIVER VALLEYS...AND
WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO LOWER
60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WILL START WEDNESDAY OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO WEST TEXAS. WE MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG OUR MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY
ISOLATED AND WEAK. RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPING PRECIPITATION
LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S WEST TO THE LOW 90S EAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AREAWIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...
MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING SOMEWHAT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
SLOWS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TRYING TO DISPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE.
POSSIBLY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK IN ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING
THE 12Z ECMWF TIMING. MOST OF THE SUPPORT FOR THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST SUCH THAT THE FRONT MAY SLOW AND DIE OVER THE
REGION NEXT MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT TUESDAY...
OVERALL VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION BUBBLE UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS NORTH ESPCLY BETWEEN KLWB AND KLYH. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING A SHOWER OR
STORM DIRECTLY AFFECT A SPECIFIC TAF SITE SO WILL MAINTAIN A
VICINITY MENTION FROM KROA/KBCB AND POINTS WEST FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER VARIED CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN AND NEAR
STORMS WITH A QUICK DROPOFF TO MVFR/IFR WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY TSRA.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION DIES OFF AND SKIES CLEAR OUT SOME.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMPT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WHERE EARLIER
SHOWERS MAY HAVE OCCURRED. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE SOME HIGH END MVFR
FOG MENTION AT THE TYPICAL FOGGY SPOTS LIKE KLWB/KLYH BUT COULD
TREND IFR IN ANY LOCATION THAT SEES A HEAVIER SHOWER FROM THIS
AFTERNOON.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR STAYS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ALSO LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHTS ESPCLY
VALLEYS AND WHERE AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL OCCURS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
130 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
.UPDATE...
SO THE WARM FRONT CREPT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND HAS ALREADY
REACHED MADISON AND MILWAUKEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN WHAT I WAS THINKING EARLIER THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE
RISING INTO THE MID 60S WITH TEMPS AROUND 70. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
JANESVILLE AND KENOSHA AREAS NOW. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
THETA-E ADVECTION. SURFACE BASED CAPE IS ON THE RISE...UP TO AROUND
500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN IN SOUTHEAST WI. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK. THUS...ISOLATED THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS.
HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT GIVEN THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
HANG UP OVER THE MKX FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
THE WARM FRONT CREPT NORTHWARD QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AND HAS ALREADY
CLEARED KMSN AND KMKE...IDENTIFIED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCOURING
OF THE LIFR CIGS. THERE IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NOW THAT WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT AT LEAST
KMKE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP
NEAR SHEBOYGAN AND THE DELLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THE TREK
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY.
UNCERTAIN ABOUT CEILINGS TONIGHT SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO THE KMSN/KUES/KMKE TAF SITES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KMSN AND KMKE TONIGHT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AS REGION GETS INTO
WARM SECTOR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR AND 12Z NAM ARE NOW KEEPING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN THE MORNING ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL BE DELAYED IN MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY. MODELS STILL SHOW IT PUSHING INTO FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN HAVING IT STALL THIS EVENING
AND BISECT THE MKX FORECAST AREA.
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND ALSO TONIGHT WITH THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS JUST BARELY
OVER SOUTHERN WI TODAY...BUT GENERALLY POINTING TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE.
HEADLINE POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT WILL BE DENSE FOG. WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM
FRONT...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AND COULD BECOME DENSE. BEST
CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE THE NORTH HALF OF THE MKX FORECAST
AREA.
AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
THE WARM FRONT AND HIGHER CEILINGS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL
BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD QUICKLY
TODAY OR TONIGHT. KENW AND KJVL COULD SCOUR OUT THE LIFR CIGS BY
MIDDAY...BUT KMSN/KUES/KMKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR/IFR THROUGH MOST
OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN WI
TODAY...THEN AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KMSN AND KMKE
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THERE.
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AS REGION GETS INTO
WARM SECTOR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
ISSUED MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES DUE A WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM MOIST AIR FLOWING
OVER THE COOL WATER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT ARE LEADING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE. WEB CAMS
SHOWED IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITIES LATE THIS MORNING IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THEY COULD GO DOWN AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE AREA WITH COOL EAST FLOW...SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG BUT MOST VISIBILITIES HOLDING AT 1/2 TO 1 MILE OVER THE FAR WEST
AND 1 TO 3 MILES IN THE EAST. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY IF
1/4 MILE VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAR SRN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF INCREASING 850-700 MB
WINDS CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON SRN WI BUT EXPECTED TO HEAL OVER TO THE
EAST...REFLECTED IN DIMINISHING TREND TO WESTERN END OF LINE.
HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS ALSO TAKE THIS PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE
EAST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF MCS...RIDING ALONG JUST TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT AND BEING DRIVEN BY 500 MB SHORT WAVE...WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SPC HAS PUSHED SLIGHT RISK
FARTHER SOUTH ON 28/06Z DAY 1 VERSUS 27/17Z DAY 2 WITH ONLY THE
SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES STILL LEFT IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH THAT RISK
TIED TO NORTHERN END OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. STILL EXPECT DECENT
RAINS WITH PWS RISING TO 1.5 TO 1.7. COOL OUTFLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
COMPLEX WILL LIKELY HOLD THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH UNTIL
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH APPROACHING WARM
FRONT...BUT WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT STABILIZING AFFECT OF FIRST COMPLEX.
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGS WARM FRONT INTO THE SRN-MOST
COUNTIES AROUND 3 PM...THE I-94 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM AND
SLOWS/STALLS NEAR THE NRN COUNTIES AROUND 7 PM BRINGING LATE DAY
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LOWS DO NOT FALL
OFF MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOW TO MID 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS NORTH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY AS THIS FRONT HEADS NORTHWARD. LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARMER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS
PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINING MAINLY TO THE WEST. DID KEEP SOME
POPS DUE TO GENERAL UNCERTAINTY...THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST TOWARD
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THURSDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET SLIDES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT. THIS
SETUP SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THUS KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING.
INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE THURSDAY...WITH SFC
BASED CAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG VIA NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PRETTY GOOD THOUGH...AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR IS AROUND 30-40 KT. STORMS COULD THUS BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A BIT MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. NEW SPC DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THUS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. THOUGH
BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SIMILAR CAPE
VALUES AS THURSDAY...AND WIND SHEAR ACTUALLY A BIT HIGHER.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BIT TRICKY THOUGH...DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICK THE WARM FRONT GETS NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND RESULTANT IMPACT ON TEMPS.
PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...AS MODELS INDICATE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
FOR THE COOLER LAKE AIRMASS TO INTRUDE INLAND...THOUGH MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND COULD PUSH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE LAKE. GENERALLY KEPT TEMPS A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE DUE
TO THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION AND STRENGTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...THE BEST CHANCE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A
FEW SHOWERS. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT GIVEN COOLER TREND IN THE ECMWF
AND GFS AND MAY NEED TO GO A FEW DEGREES LOWER IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.
SHOULD BE PLEASANT MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH SOME SUNSHINE
RETURNING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WILL KEEP IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TAF LOCATIONS UNTIL PASSAGE OF MCS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE CONVECTION RE-DEVELOP ALONG FRONT...BUT STABILIZING AFFECT OF
MORNING COMPLEX UNCERTAIN SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT AFTER PRECIP WITH
COMPLEX ENDS AND SEE HOW ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AS REGION GETS INTO WARM SECTOR AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MARINE...WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY. LOCATIONS
SUCH AS WIND POINT...AND FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN COULD
SEE WAVES AROUND 4 FEET OR BETTER WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FETCH BY THURSDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV