Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/27/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 308 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN COLORADO WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS CFWA. AIRMASS DRIER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER AREA.
WEB CAMS ACROSS MOUNTAINS HAVE SHOWN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED. LATEST RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
OVER PARK AND SUMMIT COUNTIES THROUGH 03Z. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS COLORADO
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS. LATEST SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE CLOUD ALONG
FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ADD A BIT MORE CLOUD TO THE GRIDS.
ON TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOUNTAINS
ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL QG ASCENT. LATEST MODELS
BEGIN BRINGING SOME LIGHT QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS AFTER 15Z
ACROSS ZONE 31 AND WESTERN EDGE OF ZONE 34 IN SUMMIT COUNTY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST QG VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGS
SHOWS THE GREATEST LIFT OVER WESTERN UTAH. STILL SUFFICIENT LIFT
ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KG ENOUGH FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT.
ALSO A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH AND MIDDLE
PARKS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK WILL HINDER
PRECIP CHANCES AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. AS FOR
PLAINS...SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST GFS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS COULD MOVE ONTO URBAN
CORRIDOR LATE AFTERNOON...OTHER MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY. WILL
EXCLUDE THE SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS
SHOW HIGHS MODERATING SLIGHTLY...BUT CLOUDS AND SNOW COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE CWA ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS. AFTER
THAT...UPPER RIDGING IS OVER COLORADO WITH WEAKER ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN BENIGN SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT OF
UPSLOPE PROGGED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FOR THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT FAIRLY WEAK
NORMAL DUIRNAL PATTERNS ARE PROGGED. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS
PRETTY DECENT ALPINE MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WEAK TROUGH.
THERE IS SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER ALL OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A TINY BIT INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIT OF CAPE OVER THE MOUNTIANS
...FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VALUES ARE UP
TO 250 J/KG. WILL LEAVE IN OR GO WITH 30-60% POPS IN THE MOUNTAINSTUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGHER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
MOISTURE...A BIT OF OROGRAPHIC HELP...SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK
DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-4 C WARMER THAN
TUESDAY`S. THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-4 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S.
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LOWER READINGS OVERALL AND SEE WHAT THE
SNOW FIELD OVER THE PLAINS DOES. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS KEEP AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF
COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST OR
NORTHWESTERLY AND PRETTY WEAK THOSE TWO DAYS. ON SUNDAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY MILD ALL FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 03Z
AS DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR WAVE CLOUD DEVELOPING ALONG
FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 12000
FEET AGL. VFR TO PREVAIL. ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 18Z WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH VFR CONTINUING. CEILINGS
AROUND 10000 FEET AGL EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 1207 AM MDT MON MAR 25 2013

.UPDATE...SNOW IS A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT AND RADAR/SATELLITE
SHOW SOME UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
NOT MUCH HELP AT THIS POINT...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR/OBS
CANT RULE OUT LIGHT SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...DELAYED IMPROVEMENT IN TAFS AT KAPA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO AT KDEN AND KBJC WITH
LOWER CEILINGS OF 600 FEET TO 1500 FEET AT KBJC 09Z-11Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM MDT SUN MAR 24 2013/

UPDATE...THERE IS A BAND OF SNOW SINKING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
WELD...ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES. ADJUSTED FORECAST TO MATCH UP
WITH THIS AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA LOWERED POPS.
SATELLITE INDICATES SHOWERS ARE DECREASING. STILL EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP
LOW POPS IN FOR THIS. ANY SNOW THAT FALL WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY
LESS THAN AN INCH. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

AVIATION...SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z.
VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO AROUND ONE MILE WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS
1500 FEET IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW...CEILINGS
WILL BE 4000 TO 8000 FEET THROUGH 06Z...AND THEN RISE. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AFTER 06Z AND END UP SOUTHERLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM MDT SUN MAR 24 2013/

.CORRECTED SPELLING ERRORS...

SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AS A BNDRY BRIEFLY ENHANCES UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. LAPSE RATES IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE
AROUND 8 C/KM. THUS WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR ARE SHOWING AMOUNTS IN
THE FOOTHILLS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER UP TO 4 INCHES WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES IN THE WRN SUBURBS. FURTHER EAST AMOUNTS ARE IN AN
INCH OR LESS. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW MAY RESIDE NR THE WY-CO BORDER
IN NR WELD COUNTY WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL. IN THE MTNS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC -SHSN WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
AS WELL. BY MIDNIGHT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END ALTHOUGH RAP SHOWS
SHOW LIGHT ACTIVITY NR THE WY BORDER.

ON MON DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MTNS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF
-SHSN. AS FOR TEMPS WITH SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA AND
LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS NERN CO.

LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN UPPER RIDGING GETS OVER
THE STATE AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS ZONAL. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
PROGGED OVER THE CWA IS BENIGN ACCORDING TO THE Q-G VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND AND PRESSURE FIELDS SHOW NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS
CONCERNING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AROUND MONDAY NIGHT. ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS. THIS CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE QPF
FIELDS HAVE MINIMAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION NOTED...MOSTLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL GO WITH 20-40% POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES... TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE
ABOUT 6 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S HIGHS. WEDENSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C
WARMER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...NOW THE MODELS KEEP UPPER RIDGING OVER COLORADO ALL FOUR
DAYS. THE UPPER CLOSED LOW STAYS WELL WEST OF THE THE STATE THROUGH
SUNDAY ON THESE LATEST RUNS.

AVIATION...WILL STILL SEE A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU 02Z WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AT DIA AN INCH OR LESS. AFTER 02Z SNOW CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY STILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR LVLS DUE TO SNOW THRU
02Z. AFTER 02Z WILL KEEP CEILINGS AROUND 6000 FT THRU 07Z. WINDS
SHOULD BE NNE THRU THE EARLY EVENING BUT THEN BECOME LIGHT SSWLY
AFTER 03Z THRU MON MORNING. ON MON EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SSE WINDS BY AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 1117 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY BRUSHES THE
REGION WITH WINTRY WEATHER. THE LOW TRACKS EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. THE HIGH WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOST DIFFICULT FORECAST TO START THE WEEK. 993 HPA LOW EAST OF
THE DELMARVA AS OF 12 UTC WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY.
HEAVY WET SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ HAS LOWERED TEMPS TO
FREEZING THERE.

LOCALLY...13 UTC TEMPS ARE NEAR 40 F WITH DEWS IN THE MID 20S. THIS
GIVES ME A WET BULB OF 34-35 F. PCPN IS HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE DRY AIR.

TIME LAGGED RAPID REFRESH (RR) SUPPORTS HEAVIEST PCPN STAYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. SUBJECTIVELY...THIS TYPICALLY GETS
DISPLACED NW OF THE DEPICTED MODEL QPF. LATEST HRRR IS A BIT SOUTH
OF THE RR.

TEMPS ARE NEAR MAX AT THIS TIME AND WILL DROP TO WET BULB THIS
AFTN AS PCPN MOVES IN.

P-TYPE IS MAINLY WET SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...ACCUMULATION IS DIFFICULT UNLESS HEAVIER PCPN MAKES IT
FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST.

HAVE CANCELED THE SNOW ADVISORY WITH THE BELIEF THAT EVEN IF WE
WERE TO REACH 3 INCHES...LIMITED IMPACT IS EXPECTED DUE TO TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITATION HAVING ENDED. AN UPPER LOW...OR ELONGATED TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH THAT ROTATES SOUTH DURING THE DAY. A RATHER
VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...AND DRY
SOUTH. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH
A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATO CU OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOSTLY WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY. AS SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW...CAN EXPECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INLAND AND
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...EVEN FLURRIES AT NIGHT...FARTHER EAST MANY
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. STRONGEST SHORTWAVES LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE
TIMING TO WARRANT ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY WARM BY THE
WEEKEND. LOWS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING IN FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT
RIDING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY...TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND TURN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.

LIGHT PRECIP...EITHER WET SNOW OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX...IS JUST ABOUT
TO ENTER THE NYC METRO AREA. AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...FLIGHT
CAT SHOULD DROP TO LOW END VFR OR MVFR WITH ONSET OF THIS
PRECIP...THEN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL TAKE LONGER TO
SPREAD FARTHER NE INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT. IFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS PRECIP
RATES INCREASE AND LOW LEVELS COOL OFF.

HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE.

NO MORE THAN A SLUSHY COATING OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON RUNWAYS
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND KHPN/KBDR/KGON THROUGH THIS EVENING
DUE TO LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES AND WARM GROUND TEMPS...MAYBE UP TO AN
INCH AT KISP.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF GUST UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY IN SNOW COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO 1SM AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF GUST JUST OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF GUST UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHED AMD EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ONSET OF SNOW AND LOWER FLIGHT CAT COULD BE
1-2 HR LATER THAN FCST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ONSET OF SNOW AND LOWER FLIGHT CAT COULD BE
UP TO AN HOUR LATER THAN FCST. A BRIEF GUST JUST OVER 30 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS BY AROUND NOON TODAY. AS THE
STORM BEGINS TO TRACK EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS BELOW GALE LATE THIS EVENING. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE IN LONG
ISLAND SOUND AND MAY PEAK JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. THE BEST AREA OF
GALE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS DIMINISH BELOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN
OFFSHORE LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID QPF OF AROUND A HALF INCH LIKELY FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...ACROSS NYC...AND LONG ISLAND WITH JUST AROUND A TENTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...FROM AROUND 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT...WITH SURGE OF AROUND 2 TO 2
1/2 FT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND...QUEENS...AND BROOKLYN AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS. EASTERLY
SWELLS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SURGE ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TWIN FORKS.

WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD AND FETCH DOWN LONG
ISLAND SOUND ENOUGH WATER WILL BE PILED INTO THE WESTERN SOUND THAT
WILL NOT DRAIN BY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING. ALL
FORECASTS SUPPORT THE THREAT OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH
TIDE...MARGINAL...SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

ADDITIONALLY...MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION ISSUES ARE LIKELY
ALONG OCEAN BEACHES WITH 6 TO 9 FT BREAKING SURF AND AN EASTERLY
LONGSHORE CURRENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ079>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 959 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY BRUSHES THE
REGION WITH WINTRY WEATHER. THE LOW TRACKS EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. THE HIGH WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOST DIFFICULT FORECAST TO START THE WEEK. 993 HPA LOW EAST OF
THE DELMARVA AS OF 12 UTC WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY.
HEAVY WET SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ HAS LOWERED TEMPS TO
FREEZING THERE.

LOCALLY...13 UTC TEMPS ARE NEAR 40 F WITH DEWS IN THE MID 20S. THIS
GIVES ME A WET BULB OF 34-35 F. PCPN IS HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE DRY AIR.

TIME LAGGED RAPID REFRESH (RR) SUPPORTS HEAVIEST PCPN STAYING
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. SUBJECTIVELY...THIS TYPICALLY GETS
DISPLACED NW OF THE DEPICTED MODEL QPF. LATEST HRRR IS A BIT SOUTH
OF THE RR.

TEMPS ARE NEAR MAX AT THIS TIME AND WILL DROP TO WET BULB THIS
AFTN AS PCPN MOVES IN.

P-TYPE IS MAINLY WET SNOW...BUT WITH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...ACCUMULATION IS DIFFICULT UNLESS HEAVIER PCPN MAKES IT
FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST.

HAVE CANCELED THE SNOW ADVISORY WITH THE BELIEF THAT EVEN IF WE
WERE TO REACH 3 INCHES...LIMITED IMPACT IS EXPECTED DUE TO TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITATION HAVING ENDED. AN UPPER LOW...OR ELONGATED TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH THAT ROTATES SOUTH DURING THE DAY. A RATHER
VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...AND DRY
SOUTH. A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH
A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATO CU OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOSTLY WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY. AS SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW...CAN EXPECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INLAND AND
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...EVEN FLURRIES AT NIGHT...FARTHER EAST MANY
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. STRONGEST SHORTWAVES LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE
TIMING TO WARRANT ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY WARM BY THE
WEEKEND. LOWS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING IN FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT
RIDING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY...TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND TURN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.

VFR...LOWERING TO MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS KNYC TERMINALS
INITIALLY BY 15Z...AND THEN SNOW SPREADS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. IFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS THROUGH THIS EVENING. 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT KNYC METRO TERMINALS AND LONG
ISLAND...WITH AN INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE.

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT
GUSTS ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AND 10-15 KT WITH 15-25 KT GUSTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
AFTER SUNSET AND WILL BACK TO THE NORTH.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ONSET OF SNOWFALL MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ONSET OF SNOWFALL MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST 35-40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ONSET OF SNOWFALL MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ONSET OF SNOWFALL MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ONSET OF SNOWFALL MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ONSET OF SNOWFALL MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY..VFR.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS BY AROUND NOON TODAY. AS THE
STORM BEGINS TO TRACK EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS BELOW GALE LATE THIS EVENING. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE IN LONG
ISLAND SOUND AND MAY PEAK JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. THE BEST AREA OF
GALE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS DIMINISH BELOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN
OFFSHORE LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID QPF OF AROUND A HALF INCH LIKELY FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...ACROSS NYC...AND LONG ISLAND WITH JUST AROUND A TENTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...FROM AROUND 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT...WITH SURGE OF AROUND 2 TO 2
1/2 FT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND...QUEENS...AND BROOKLYN AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS. EASTERLY
SWELLS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SURGE ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TWIN FORKS.

WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD AND FETCH DOWN LONG
ISLAND SOUND ENOUGH WATER WILL BE PILED INTO THE WESTERN SOUND THAT
WILL NOT DRAIN BY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING. ALL
FORECASTS SUPPORT THE THREAT OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH
TIDE...MARGINAL...SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

ADDITIONALLY...MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION ISSUES ARE LIKELY
ALONG OCEAN BEACHES WITH 6 TO 9 FT BREAKING SURF AND AN EASTERLY
LONGSHORE CURRENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ079>081.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-178-179.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 447 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONSOLIDATE
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN DEEPEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS STEADILY MOVING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, THIS IS STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST,
MAINLY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING
A LOT OF MOISTURE SURGING ACROSS THE BMORE/DC CORRIDOR WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT OR BELOW 35F WITH FALLING
SNOW...SOME SITES ARE SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
CURRENT BANDING STRUCTURES.


THE OVERALL DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE AMAZING IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION GENERATION BUT AS HAS BEEN HARPED ON BY SEVERAL SHIFTS
NOW, DO WE COOL ENOUGH TODAY TO ALLOW FOR AN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...AGAIN WE ARE FIGHTING THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE AS WELL.
ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS WE STILL HAVE A PRIMARILY
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FEEDING IN OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS.
GRANTED WE DO HAVE AMPLE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IN WHICH TO
EVAPORATIVELY COOL OUR COLUMN TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW, BUT WE NEED THE
BANDING FEATURES TO PROVIDE THE EXTRA BOAST TO ALLOW THE SNOW TO
STICK.

OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW-40S AND AS WAS SAID ABOVE
OUR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE DIRECTLY OFF THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT BRINGING ANY COLD AIR WITH IT AND ITS NOT WRAPPING COLD AIR DOWN
FROM CANADIAN EITHER SO IT HAS TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG VERTICAL
VELOCITIES IN ORDER TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN. THE RAP HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN THE FIRST FLAKES/DROPS ACROSS THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA BY 10-11Z...ALTHOUGH IT IS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. FROM THERE THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BEGINS TO FEED THE DEVELOPING VIRGINIA COASTAL LOW MORE
ENERGY. THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS AND SLINGS MORE MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF A TROWAL. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR SNOWFALL LATER THIS MORNING. IF IT MOVES TOO FAR EAST WE
LOSE THE HIGHER QPF AND BANDING FEATURES.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN TERMS OF THE SNOWFALL THIS MORNING AS THE
EVENT HAS YET TO REALLY TAKE SHAPE. WE KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS IN PLACE AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE ENTIRE EVENT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY LATER THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
WRAPPING AROUND AND IMPACTING OUR EASTERN ZONES. BY THIS POINT AND
TIME THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL HAVE BACKED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION, TO ALLOW FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. A COATING TO A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. WE
SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRYING OUT LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR IS PUMPED
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-30S TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MAJOR TROUGH AXIS EMANATING FROM THE NEAR AND SHORT TERMS` MID
LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO EXTEND INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. IT SHOULD KEEP
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AT BAY. IT ALSO SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA UNDER A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS AND SPOTTY AND
INTERMITTENT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. AT THIS POINT, WE
DON`T SEE ANYTHING HAZARDOUS IN ALL THIS EXCEPT THAT AN ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND A NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THAT WILL BE
BRISK AT TIMES MIGHT LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

THE MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY, AND
THAT WOULD BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND GENTLE WINDS.
HOWEVER, THEY ALSO AGREE THAT ANOTHER MID LEVEL VORTEX PUSHES DOWN
TOWARD THE AREA WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT CLOSING IN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VERY TRICKY FORECAST ON TAP FOR OUR TERMINALS TODAY. COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND CONSOLIDATE OFF THE
VIRGINIA COASTLINE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE UP FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.
THIS WILL LIMIT VSBYS AND CIGS TO THE MVFR RANGE. A BAND OR TWO OF
HEAVIER SNOW/RAIN COULD FORM AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. THIS WOULD ALLOW AN EVEN
FURTHER DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS WITH LIFR POSSIBLE UNDER THESE
BANDS. CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR SUCH CONDITIONS AS EXACT TIMING
IS HARD TO PIN POINT, BUT INDICATIONS SHOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE LOW WILL SLIDE TO OUR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS
BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRY THINGS
OUT A BIT AND LIFT VSBYS AND CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. BY THIS EVENING WE ARE FORECASTING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS, EXCLUDING MIV AND
ACY DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE SCA AND GALES FOR OUR WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO
CHANGES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DEEPENS. MORE RAIN AND SNOW
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER OUR WATERS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...HEAVY AT TIMES. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY LATER
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

OUTLOOK...
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERION DURING THE DAY, BUT SEAS WILL BE
SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TO ADVISORY
LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH
TIDE. THE AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS THE SHORE AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE, ADJACENT BACK BAYS INCLUDING BARNEGAT BAY, AND ALSO
RARITAN BAY, LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THEIR TIDAL TRIBUTARIES.

THE OFS AND EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW END MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING FOR THE HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURS THIS EVENING. LOCAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MORE SOLID MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. THE EXPECTED GALE FORCE
WINDS AND SEAS WOULD SEEM TO ARGUE FOR THE LATTER. TIDAL DEPARTURES
EARLY THIS MORNING HAD ALREADY EXCEEDED A FOOT AS WINDS WERE FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AND JUST MOVING INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS EVENING REQUIRES DEPARTURES OF
AROUND TWO FEET.

WE CONTINUE TO THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. IT LIKELY WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SAME
AREA. IF ANOTHER DOMINO WERE TO FALL, IT WOULD BE UPPER DELAWARE
BAY.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ105-
     106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>104.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>015-023>026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ016>022-
     027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ003.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ003-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001-
     002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-452>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...HEAVENER/DELISI
MARINE...HEAVENER/DELISI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DELISI







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 711 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

SCATTERED FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THEN SHOULD SEE SLOWLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING SKY COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAX OUT IN THE
MIDDLE 50S ON SUNDAY BUT THEN DROP AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST OF
THESE ARE PRODUCING ONLY FLURRIES...BUT THERE IS A WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH AND SATELLITE IS SHOWING CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CLOUDS. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL GO WITH A 20 POP FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND MENTION ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. FOR TONIGHT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHEAST WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE THROUGH 6Z TO COVER LIGHT
ECHOES SHOWING UP IN HRRR DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK WAVE. AFTER
6Z WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING START TO
BUILD IN.

INCREASED SKY COVER FROM CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CYCLONIC
FLOW...LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT AND THUS A GUIDANCE
BLEND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

THE SHORT TERM LOOKS LIKE QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM. SHOULD
SEE SKY COVER CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND LEAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MAV REBOUNDS
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY THINK THIS WILL BE TEMPERED BY SNOW COVER AND
THUS WENT NEAR RAW MODEL NUMBERS OF THE COOLER NAM. WENT WITH COOLER
CONSENSUS NUMBERS WHICH WERE COOLER THAN EITHER GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER AND STILL SOME SNOW
PACK ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. AS FAR AS WARMING IS CONCERNED...BY
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

NICE WARMUP IN TEMPS FROM RECENT LEVELS CULMINATES OVER THE
WEEKEND AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO WARM IN THE 50S.
SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN LIKELY FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TURN COLDER TO BEGIN THE MONTH OF APRIL AS MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE POLAR VORTEX DIVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ONCE
AGAIN. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
UNDERCUT ALLBLEND TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SHOT OF
COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LIKELY KEEPS
HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO MAKE INROADS. NONETHELESS...STRATUS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE PICTURE MUCH OF THE EVENING AND DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. MAY SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STICK WITH
BROKEN FOR NOW FOR SIMPLICITYS SAKE.

SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF TAFS. ANY
BRIEF FLAKES SHOULD NOT IMPACT CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IN AN
APPRECIABLE MANNER.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY WNW AT OR BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 144 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.AVIATION...

PINWHEELING BAND OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION/FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MODERATE SNOW TO KFWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BAND OF
HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL PER
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY BUT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND 12Z AS
THE SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
TRANSFERS TO THE EAST COAST BUT LIGHT SNOW IN RESIDUAL
TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO MVFR CATEGORY
THOUGH. AT KSBN...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOW BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO HOVER AROUND HIGH END MVFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013/

UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUDICATION WRT WSW VERBIAGE JUST PRIOR TO 1 AM EDT...AS
EVENT CRESCENDO UPON US AT 05 UTC...WITH FRESHENED WORDING TO RIDE
WELL INTO MORNING DRIVE. SNOWFALL RATES AT 2-2.4 INCHES PR
HOUR...THROUGH BREVITY /20 MINS AT SINGLE POINT/ PER NWD BANDED WAVE
PROPAGATION S/B SAVING FACTOR AGAINST PRODIGIOUS LOCALIZED EXTREMA
GT 1 FOOT. GAVE SLIGHT INCRS IN NWRN OH TO 5-9 INCH RANGE WITH
LOCALLY HIR NEAR ROUTE 30.  CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY REALIZED ACRS
NWRN OH/VAN WERT CO. THIS MUCH IN LINE WITH IDYLLIC WEAKNESS WITHIN
THETA-E LAPSE RATES PER YDAY NAM AND NOW WITH 25/00 WRFARW.
FURTHERMORE LTST WRF WELL DEPICTING FORKED TROWAL FM CNTL OH VERTEX
INTO NRN IN AND SECONDARY INCRSGLY DOMINANT/TUCKED TROWAL WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIVE BULK MSTR ACCESS ACRS ECNTL IN INTO WCNTL OH...ROUGHLY
KMIE-KDAY. SINGLED OUT GRANT/BLACKFORD/JAY FOR MOST PROBABLE HIR
ISOLD AMOUNTS...THOUGH MAINTAINED PRIOR/REASONABLE AREAL RANGE GIVEN
IMMINENT COASTAL HANDOFF AND WRN FLANK OF SOLID SNOW WITH TRANSITION
TO A MORE INTERMITTENT CHARACTER IS NOW WELL INTO NWRN IN. PVU FOLD
SPUR NOW ROUNDED INTO VA SUGGESTS DEMARCATION PT FOR RAPID ENERGY
XFER TO FAVORABLE GULF STREAM CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN...WITH RATES
MARKEDLY DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-MID
LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN A LARGE SWATH OF
HEAVY SNOW OVER EASTERN MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WHICH
MAY ACT TO HINDER MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE THIS EVENING. 12Z RAOBS CONFIRMING
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG UPPER JET TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH...ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED TO
AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF HEAVY SNOW BAND AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN NE
TRACK OF SFC LOW...BRINGING IT INTO NORTHERN KY BY 00Z MON AND UP
INTO SW OH BY 12Z MON...PLACING OUR SOUTHERN CWA IN FAVORABLE AREA
FOR FOR HEAVY SNOW. KEY COMPONENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
THAT WILL ACT TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND THE RESULTING COASTAL TRANSFER
OF ENERGY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OH VALLEY SFC LOW MONDAY IN
FAVOR OF INTENSIFICATION OF COASTAL LOW AS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ON EASTWARD TRACK AND BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH SFC LOW OVER OH VALLEY 09-12Z MON. THAT SAID...THERE STILL
EXISTS A 12 HOUR WINDOW...00Z-12Z MON...OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AS ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRODUCING 6-8
INCHES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS 80-100M 500MB HT
FALLS WILL REACH UP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS UPPER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH KY OVERNIGHT. AND WHILE MODELS VARY ON DEGREE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH BETTER
ALIGNMENT OF OMEGA AND DGZ THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WILL ALSO FAVOR A GOOD
SHOT AT HVY SNOW FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH WARNING/ADV AREAS AND KEEP NORTHERN TIER WITHOUT HEADLINES AS
DISTINCT CUTOFF IN SNOW EXPECTED NORTH OF US6. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM NE TO N/NW LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY AND BRING CHANCE FOR LES INTO OUR EXTREME NW CWA. DESPITE
UNIFORM NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LACK OF
COLD AIR WILL YIELD MARGINAL/SUB MARGINAL DELTA T AND THEREFORE
HINDER ACCUMULATIONS.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASED SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS VERY COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DELTA
T VALUES RATHER MODEST AT 12C TO 14C...BUT A LONG LAKE AXIS FETCH
WITH LIKELY PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE. RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
INVERSIONS HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH AND LOW FCST TEMPERATURES ARE CHALLENGING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD GIVEN LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS OF LINGERING SNOW
COVER AND A GRADUALLY MODIFYING AIRMASS. ANTICIPATED SOME SNOW COVER
SHOULD BE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
MADE SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS TO THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL STRUGGLE TO GET BACK TO NORMAL. PREFERRED
THE COLDER GFS MEAN MOS TEMPERATURES THAT SEEM TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
A CHILLY MODIFYING AIRMASS. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COLDER THAN THE
GFS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STAYING BELOW 0C EXCEPT FOR LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ008-009-012>018.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ020-
     022>027-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ004-
     005-015-016.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ024-
     025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
UPDATE...MURPHY
AVIATION...AGD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 125 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUDICATION WRT WSW VERBIAGE JUST PRIOR TO 1 AM EDT...AS
EVENT CRESCENDO UPON US AT 05 UTC...WITH FRESHENED WORDING TO RIDE
WELL INTO MORNING DRIVE. SNOWFALL RATES AT 2-2.4 INCHES PR
HOUR...THROUGH BREVITY /20 MINS AT SINGLE POINT/ PER NWD BANDED WAVE
PROPAGATION S/B SAVING FACTOR AGAINST PRODIGIOUS LOCALIZED EXTREMA
GT 1 FOOT. GAVE SLIGHT INCRS IN NWRN OH TO 5-9 INCH RANGE WITH
LOCALLY HIR NEAR ROUTE 30.  CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY REALIZED ACRS
NWRN OH/VAN WERT CO. THIS MUCH IN LINE WITH IDYLLIC WEAKNESS WITHIN
THETA-E LAPSE RATES PER YDAY NAM AND NOW WITH 25/00 WRFARW.
FURTHERMORE LTST WRF WELL DEPICTING FORKED TROWAL FM CNTL OH VERTEX
INTO NRN IN AND SECONDARY INCRSGLY DOMINANT/TUCKED TROWAL WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIVE BULK MSTR ACCESS ACRS ECNTL IN INTO WCNTL OH...ROUGHLY
KMIE-KDAY. SINGLED OUT GRANT/BLACKFORD/JAY FOR MOST PROBABLE HIR
ISOLD AMOUNTS...THOUGH MAINTAINED PRIOR/REASONABLE AREAL RANGE GIVEN
IMMINENT COASTAL HANDOFF AND WRN FLANK OF SOLID SNOW WITH TRANSITION
TO A MORE INTERMITTENT CHARACTER IS NOW WELL INTO NWRN IN. PVU FOLD
SPUR NOW ROUNDED INTO VA SUGGESTS DEMARCATION PT FOR RAPID ENERGY
XFER TO FAVORABLE GULF STREAM CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN...WITH RATES
MARKEDLY DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013/
UPDATE...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH 2330Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
PUTTING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLAY THIS
EVENING IN HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD PIVOT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A STRONG VORT MAX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP
INITIALIZATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA SHOULD WRAP INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA VIA PARENT UPPER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TOWARD 06Z...BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION FLOW. NAM/GFS
TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS STILL INDICATING STRONGEST UVM IN THE 00Z-06Z
TIMEFRAME THIS EVENING...WITH AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE OVERLAP
TOWARD 03Z OF VERTICAL MOTION AND RELATIVELY DEEP DGZ BETWEEN
750-550 HPA. ELEVATED WEAK STATIC STABILITY ALSO SHOULD MAXIMIZE
RESPONSE FROM FRONTOGENETIC/DPVA FORCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY PORTIONS OF OVERNIGHT. ALREADY A FEW REPORTS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

OF CONCERN AS DEFORMATION BAND PIVOTS OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAY REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THAT COULD ACT TO ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS. GIVEN ABOVE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FACTORS...SOME POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF THESE TYPE OF ACCUMULATIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
APPEARS TO HAVE SITUATION COVERED WELL...AND HAVE MADE JUST A
MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN STORM TOTAL ACCUMS ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...AND TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
ONLY OTHER TWEAK TO FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS A BIT MONDAY
MORNING AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SLOW DEPARTURE OF
WEAKENING DEFORMATION/TROWAL FORCING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
CURRENT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-MID
LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN A LARGE SWATH OF
HEAVY SNOW OVER EASTERN MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WHICH
MAY ACT TO HINDER MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE THIS EVENING. 12Z RAOBS CONFIRMING
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG UPPER JET TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH...ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED TO
AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF HEAVY SNOW BAND AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN NE
TRACK OF SFC LOW...BRINGING IT INTO NORTHERN KY BY 00Z MON AND UP
INTO SW OH BY 12Z MON...PLACING OUR SOUTHERN CWA IN FAVORABLE AREA
FOR FOR HEAVY SNOW. KEY COMPONENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
THAT WILL ACT TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND THE RESULTING COASTAL TRANSFER
OF ENERGY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OH VALLEY SFC LOW MONDAY IN
FAVOR OF INTENSIFICATION OF COASTAL LOW AS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ON EASTWARD TRACK AND BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH SFC LOW OVER OH VALLEY 09-12Z MON. THAT SAID...THERE STILL
EXISTS A 12 HOUR WINDOW...00Z-12Z MON...OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AS ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRODUCING 6-8
INCHES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS 80-100M 500MB HT
FALLS WILL REACH UP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS UPPER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH KY OVERNIGHT. AND WHILE MODELS VARY ON DEGREE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH BETTER
ALIGNMENT OF OMEGA AND DGZ THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WILL ALSO FAVOR A GOOD
SHOT AT HVY SNOW FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH WARNING/ADV AREAS AND KEEP NORTHERN TIER WITHOUT HEADLINES AS
DISTINCT CUTOFF IN SNOW EXPECTED NORTH OF US6. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM NE TO N/NW LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY AND BRING CHANCE FOR LES INTO OUR EXTREME NW CWA. DESPITE
UNIFORM NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LACK OF
COLD AIR WILL YIELD MARGINAL/SUB MARGINAL DELTA T AND THEREFORE
HINDER ACCUMULATIONS.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASED SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS VERY COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DELTA
T VALUES RATHER MODEST AT 12C TO 14C...BUT A LONG LAKE AXIS FETCH
WITH LIKELY PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE. RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
INVERSIONS HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH AND LOW FCST TEMPERATURES ARE CHALLENGING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD GIVEN LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS OF LINGERING SNOW
COVER AND A GRADUALLY MODIFYING AIRMASS. ANTICIPATED SOME SNOW COVER
SHOULD BE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
MADE SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS TO THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL STRUGGLE TO GET BACK TO NORMAL. PREFERRED
THE COLDER GFS MEAN MOS TEMPERATURES THAT SEEM TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
A CHILLY MODIFYING AIRMASS. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COLDER THAN THE
GFS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STAYING BELOW 0C EXCEPT FOR LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
     INZ008-009-012>018.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR INZ020-022>027-
     032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     OHZ004-005-015-016.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
UPDATE...MARSILI
UPDATE...MURPHY












AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 125 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUDICATION WRT WSW VERBIAGE JUST PRIOR TO 1 AM EDT...AS
EVENT CRESCENDO UPON US AT 05 UTC...WITH FRESHENED WORDING TO RIDE
WELL INTO MORNING DRIVE. SNOWFALL RATES AT 2-2.4 INCHES PR
HOUR...THROUGH BREVITY /20 MINS AT SINGLE POINT/ PER NWD BANDED WAVE
PROPAGATION S/B SAVING FACTOR AGAINST PRODIGIOUS LOCALIZED EXTREMA
GT 1 FOOT. GAVE SLIGHT INCRS IN NWRN OH TO 5-9 INCH RANGE WITH
LOCALLY HIR NEAR ROUTE 30.  CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY REALIZED ACRS
NWRN OH/VAN WERT CO. THIS MUCH IN LINE WITH IDYLLIC WEAKNESS WITHIN
THETA-E LAPSE RATES PER YDAY NAM AND NOW WITH 25/00 WRFARW.
FURTHERMORE LTST WRF WELL DEPICTING FORKED TROWAL FM CNTL OH VERTEX
INTO NRN IN AND SECONDARY INCRSGLY DOMINANT/TUCKED TROWAL WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIVE BULK MSTR ACCESS ACRS ECNTL IN INTO WCNTL OH...ROUGHLY
KMIE-KDAY. SINGLED OUT GRANT/BLACKFORD/JAY FOR MOST PROBABLE HIR
ISOLD AMOUNTS...THOUGH MAINTAINED PRIOR/REASONABLE AREAL RANGE GIVEN
IMMINENT COASTAL HANDOFF AND WRN FLANK OF SOLID SNOW WITH TRANSITION
TO A MORE INTERMITTENT CHARACTER IS NOW WELL INTO NWRN IN. PVU FOLD
SPUR NOW ROUNDED INTO VA SUGGESTS DEMARCATION PT FOR RAPID ENERGY
XFER TO FAVORABLE GULF STREAM CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN...WITH RATES
MARKEDLY DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013/
UPDATE...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH 2330Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
PUTTING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLAY THIS
EVENING IN HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD PIVOT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A STRONG VORT MAX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP
INITIALIZATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA SHOULD WRAP INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA VIA PARENT UPPER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TOWARD 06Z...BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION FLOW. NAM/GFS
TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS STILL INDICATING STRONGEST UVM IN THE 00Z-06Z
TIMEFRAME THIS EVENING...WITH AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE OVERLAP
TOWARD 03Z OF VERTICAL MOTION AND RELATIVELY DEEP DGZ BETWEEN
750-550 HPA. ELEVATED WEAK STATIC STABILITY ALSO SHOULD MAXIMIZE
RESPONSE FROM FRONTOGENETIC/DPVA FORCING LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY PORTIONS OF OVERNIGHT. ALREADY A FEW REPORTS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

OF CONCERN AS DEFORMATION BAND PIVOTS OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAY REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THAT COULD ACT TO ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS. GIVEN ABOVE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FACTORS...SOME POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF THESE TYPE OF ACCUMULATIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
APPEARS TO HAVE SITUATION COVERED WELL...AND HAVE MADE JUST A
MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN STORM TOTAL ACCUMS ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...AND TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
ONLY OTHER TWEAK TO FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS A BIT MONDAY
MORNING AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SLOW DEPARTURE OF
WEAKENING DEFORMATION/TROWAL FORCING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
CURRENT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-MID
LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN A LARGE SWATH OF
HEAVY SNOW OVER EASTERN MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WHICH
MAY ACT TO HINDER MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE THIS EVENING. 12Z RAOBS CONFIRMING
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG UPPER JET TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH...ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED TO
AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF HEAVY SNOW BAND AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN NE
TRACK OF SFC LOW...BRINGING IT INTO NORTHERN KY BY 00Z MON AND UP
INTO SW OH BY 12Z MON...PLACING OUR SOUTHERN CWA IN FAVORABLE AREA
FOR FOR HEAVY SNOW. KEY COMPONENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
THAT WILL ACT TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND THE RESULTING COASTAL TRANSFER
OF ENERGY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OH VALLEY SFC LOW MONDAY IN
FAVOR OF INTENSIFICATION OF COASTAL LOW AS CLOSED UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ON EASTWARD TRACK AND BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH SFC LOW OVER OH VALLEY 09-12Z MON. THAT SAID...THERE STILL
EXISTS A 12 HOUR WINDOW...00Z-12Z MON...OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AS ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRODUCING 6-8
INCHES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS 80-100M 500MB HT
FALLS WILL REACH UP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS UPPER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH KY OVERNIGHT. AND WHILE MODELS VARY ON DEGREE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH BETTER
ALIGNMENT OF OMEGA AND DGZ THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WILL ALSO FAVOR A GOOD
SHOT AT HVY SNOW FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH WARNING/ADV AREAS AND KEEP NORTHERN TIER WITHOUT HEADLINES AS
DISTINCT CUTOFF IN SNOW EXPECTED NORTH OF US6. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM NE TO N/NW LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY AND BRING CHANCE FOR LES INTO OUR EXTREME NW CWA. DESPITE
UNIFORM NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LACK OF
COLD AIR WILL YIELD MARGINAL/SUB MARGINAL DELTA T AND THEREFORE
HINDER ACCUMULATIONS.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASED SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS VERY COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DELTA
T VALUES RATHER MODEST AT 12C TO 14C...BUT A LONG LAKE AXIS FETCH
WITH LIKELY PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE. RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
INVERSIONS HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END
TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH AND LOW FCST TEMPERATURES ARE CHALLENGING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD GIVEN LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS OF LINGERING SNOW
COVER AND A GRADUALLY MODIFYING AIRMASS. ANTICIPATED SOME SNOW COVER
SHOULD BE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
MADE SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS TO THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL STRUGGLE TO GET BACK TO NORMAL. PREFERRED
THE COLDER GFS MEAN MOS TEMPERATURES THAT SEEM TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
A CHILLY MODIFYING AIRMASS. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COLDER THAN THE
GFS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STAYING BELOW 0C EXCEPT FOR LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
     INZ008-009-012>018.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR INZ020-022>027-
     032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     OHZ004-005-015-016.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
UPDATE...MARSILI
UPDATE...MURPHY









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 1246 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1120 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

Snow showers continue across the region late this morning. Under the
heavier bands we are seeing some reduced visibilities and light
accumulations. The accumulations are mainly on grassy surfaces,
though some roads may be affected while the snow is falling.
However, temperatures remain at or just above freezing across the
region. Pops were increased across south central Kentucky for this
afternoon with this update. Mesoscale models indicate bands will
continue to form in this area through the afternoon hours. For now
will leave the Special Weather Statement and Winter Weather Advisory
as is and continue to monitor conditions early this afternoon.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

The roller-coaster of weather continues this morning. Mother Nature
has shown her full hand to the Ohio Valley over the past 24 hours
with severe thunderstorms, strong winds, heavy rain, and now wintry
precipitation.

The potent upper level disturbance and associated surface low
continue to push off to the northeast.  In its wake, strong
westerly winds have enveloped the region, allowing much cooler air
to filter in.  The strong band of mid-level frontogenesis associated
with the TROWAL continues to pivot southeast across Indiana and
Illinois.  However, this feature is forecast to continue to weaken
as the system becomes a bit more vertically stacked and the surface
low quickly fills in , which is evident by decreasing reflectivities
over the past several hours.  However, there still may be a brief
window for some very light accumulations this morning mainly across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.  With surface
temperatures hovering near freezing and road temperatures in the
upper 30s, do not expect this snowfall to be heavy enough to
accumulate on roadways through the morning hours.

Attention then turns toward late this morning and early this
afternoon, as another upper-level trough axis swings through the
state.  As the cold core of the system moves overhead, lapse rates
will steepen substantially this afternoon.  Guidance differs
slightly in how the low-level thermal profile will look (with the
05Z RAP showing dry adiabatic lapse rates up to 800mb!), but all are
showing rather impressive low-level instability.  With the steep
lapse rates, ELs look to top out around -15C, which would promote
dendritic snow growth.  Therefore, think that moderate to locally
heavy snow showers are a good bet today, especially from Louisville
east into the northern Bluegrass.

The age old question then becomes, what will the impact of these
snow showers be.  With surface temperatures rising into the middle
30s, much of the snow will be lost to melting.  Additionally, road
temperatures will remain rather warm.  That being said, the isolated
heavy showers may have the rates to overcome the warmer ground/roads
and cause quick accumulations only to melt soon after the heaviest
precipitation moves out.  Additionally, strong westerly winds
combined with the blowing snow will create poor visibilities in the
stronger showers.  Therefore, believe there still could be some
impacts from these, even though amounts at any one location are
unlikely to exceed an inch at any one time.  For these reasons, will
go ahead and leave the Winter Weather Advisory as is.

The snow showers will linger into the overnight hours into Tuesday
morning, although the intensity should begin to wane.  By Tuesday
afternoon, the bulk of the snow showers should push east of the
area.  With the expected cloud cover and brisk westerly winds today
and tomorrow, have continued to undercut guidance for highs.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night - Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

A period of benign weather is in store for the rest of the work week
and into the weekend. High pressure will build eastward from the
Mississippi River valley Wednesday. Models are consistent now in
less of a rain chance with any warm front oriented northwest to
southeast in our vicinity. The best chance...only slight for this
forecast package...looks to be over the southwest forecast area
Friday and Saturday. Then on Sunday the GFS has a cold front close
enough to cause some rains. 12Z Euro and new Euro coming in are not
as quick with this front, so have undercut AllBlend pops a little to
lean more towards the Euro solutions.

Temperatures should fall into the 20s both Wednesday and Thursday
mornings, with daytime highs around 40 Wednesday then increasing to
the 45-50 degree range Thursday. The warmup will continue into the
weekend, with highs by then in the mid to upper 50s, still below
normal for late March, but likely a welcome change for the Easter
weekend.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

Snow showers will continue this afternoon and into the overnight
hours as an upper level disturbance crosses the Ohio Valley.
Visibilities will generally be in the 2-3 mile range, except in the
the few heavier snow showers that may develop this afternoon. Winds
will remain breezy from the WNW through the afternoon hours with
gusts generally around 20 knots, though they may be as high as 25
knots at times. Ceilings will generally remain MVFR.

Snow showers will become lighter and eventually end overnight.
Ceilings are expected to improve by mid morning to early afternoon
tomorrow. Gusts will lessen tonight as the pressure gradient across
the region relaxes. Though a few snow showers are expected tomorrow,
they will be much less widespread than today, so will keep mention
of this out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ023>025-028>043-045-048-049.

$$


Update...........EER
Short Term.......KD
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........EER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 1123 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1120 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

Snow showers continue across the region late this morning. Under the
heavier bands we are seeing some reduced visibilities and light
accumulations. The accumulations are mainly on grassy surfaces,
though some roads may be affected while the snow is falling.
However, temperatures remain at or just above freezing across the
region. Pops were increased across south central Kentucky for this
afternoon with this update. Mesoscale models indicate bands will
continue to form in this area through the afternoon hours. For now
will leave the Special Weather Statement and Winter Weather Advisory
as is and continue to monitor conditions early this afternoon.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

The roller-coaster of weather continues this morning. Mother Nature
has shown her full hand to the Ohio Valley over the past 24 hours
with severe thunderstorms, strong winds, heavy rain, and now wintry
precipitation.

The potent upper level disturbance and associated surface low
continue to push off to the northeast.  In its wake, strong
westerly winds have enveloped the region, allowing much cooler air
to filter in.  The strong band of mid-level frontogenesis associated
with the TROWAL continues to pivot southeast across Indiana and
Illinois.  However, this feature is forecast to continue to weaken
as the system becomes a bit more vertically stacked and the surface
low quickly fills in , which is evident by decreasing reflectivities
over the past several hours.  However, there still may be a brief
window for some very light accumulations this morning mainly across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.  With surface
temperatures hovering near freezing and road temperatures in the
upper 30s, do not expect this snowfall to be heavy enough to
accumulate on roadways through the morning hours.

Attention then turns toward late this morning and early this
afternoon, as another upper-level trough axis swings through the
state.  As the cold core of the system moves overhead, lapse rates
will steepen substantially this afternoon.  Guidance differs
slightly in how the low-level thermal profile will look (with the
05Z RAP showing dry adiabatic lapse rates up to 800mb!), but all are
showing rather impressive low-level instability.  With the steep
lapse rates, ELs look to top out around -15C, which would promote
dendritic snow growth.  Therefore, think that moderate to locally
heavy snow showers are a good bet today, especially from Louisville
east into the northern Bluegrass.

The age old question then becomes, what will the impact of these
snow showers be.  With surface temperatures rising into the middle
30s, much of the snow will be lost to melting.  Additionally, road
temperatures will remain rather warm.  That being said, the isolated
heavy showers may have the rates to overcome the warmer ground/roads
and cause quick accumulations only to melt soon after the heaviest
precipitation moves out.  Additionally, strong westerly winds
combined with the blowing snow will create poor visibilities in the
stronger showers.  Therefore, believe there still could be some
impacts from these, even though amounts at any one location are
unlikely to exceed an inch at any one time.  For these reasons, will
go ahead and leave the Winter Weather Advisory as is.

The snow showers will linger into the overnight hours into Tuesday
morning, although the intensity should begin to wane.  By Tuesday
afternoon, the bulk of the snow showers should push east of the
area.  With the expected cloud cover and brisk westerly winds today
and tomorrow, have continued to undercut guidance for highs.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night - Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

A period of benign weather is in store for the rest of the work week
and into the weekend. High pressure will build eastward from the
Mississippi River valley Wednesday. Models are consistent now in
less of a rain chance with any warm front oriented northwest to
southeast in our vicinity. The best chance...only slight for this
forecast package...looks to be over the southwest forecast area
Friday and Saturday. Then on Sunday the GFS has a cold front close
enough to cause some rains. 12Z Euro and new Euro coming in are not
as quick with this front, so have undercut AllBlend pops a little to
lean more towards the Euro solutions.

Temperatures should fall into the 20s both Wednesday and Thursday
mornings, with daytime highs around 40 Wednesday then increasing to
the 45-50 degree range Thursday. The warmup will continue into the
weekend, with highs by then in the mid to upper 50s, still below
normal for late March, but likely a welcome change for the Easter
weekend.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 710 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

A deep area of low pressure will continue to lift slowly northeast
into Ohio this morning.  In the wake of this low, cold air and
scattered snow showers will continue to filter into the Ohio
Valley.  These snow showers will be scattered in nature, quickly
dropping ceilings/visibilities for a brief time only to quickly
improve once the shower rolls through.  Therefore, the best way to
handle these showers is with a TEMPO group through the first 4
hours.  The showers should become a bit more widespread after 16Z
across KSDF and KLEX, so will go prevailing IFR for reduced
visibilities after 16Z.

The other concern tonight will be winds.  Observations continue to
show winds gusting up around 25 knots which will continue throughout
the the day today, before the gusts die down and winds slowly
decrease this evening.  Snow showers should wane in coverage and
intensity after sunset this evening, but will continue through at
least the morning hours on Tuesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ023>025-028>043-045-048-049.

$$


Update...........EER
Short Term.......KD
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........KD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 712 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now - Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

The roller-coaster of weather continues this morning. Mother Nature
has shown her full hand to the Ohio Valley over the past 24 hours
with severe thunderstorms, strong winds, heavy rain, and now wintry
precipitation.

The potent upper level disturbance and associated surface low
continue to push off to the northeast.  In its wake, strong
westerly winds have enveloped the region, allowing much cooler air
to filter in.  The strong band of mid-level frontogenesis associated
with the TROWAL continues to pivot southeast across Indiana and
Illinois.  However, this feature is forecast to continue to weaken
as the system becomes a bit more vertically stacked and the surface
low quickly fills in , which is evident by decreasing reflectivities
over the past several hours.  However, there still may be a brief
window for some very light accumulations this morning mainly across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.  With surface
temperatures hovering near freezing and road temperatures in the
upper 30s, do not expect this snowfall to be heavy enough to
accumulate on roadways through the morning hours.

Attention then turns toward late this morning and early this
afternoon, as another upper-level trough axis swings through the
state.  As the cold core of the system moves overhead, lapse rates
will steepen substantially this afternoon.  Guidance differs
slightly in how the low-level thermal profile will look (with the
05Z RAP showing dry adiabatic lapse rates up to 800mb!), but all are
showing rather impressive low-level instability.  With the steep
lapse rates, ELs look to top out around -15C, which would promote
dendritic snow growth.  Therefore, think that moderate to locally
heavy snow showers are a good bet today, especially from Louisville
east into the northern Bluegrass.

The age old question then becomes, what will the impact of these
snow showers be.  With surface temperatures rising into the middle
30s, much of the snow will be lost to melting.  Additionally, road
temperatures will remain rather warm.  That being said, the isolated
heavy showers may have the rates to overcome the warmer ground/roads
and cause quick accumulations only to melt soon after the heaviest
precipitation moves out.  Additionally, strong westerly winds
combined with the blowing snow will create poor visibilities in the
stronger showers.  Therefore, believe there still could be some
impacts from these, even though amounts at any one location are
unlikely to exceed an inch at any one time.  For these reasons, will
go ahead and leave the Winter Weather Advisory as is.

The snow showers will linger into the overnight hours into Tuesday
morning, although the intensity should begin to wane.  By Tuesday
afternoon, the bulk of the snow showers should push east of the
area.  With the expected cloud cover and brisk westerly winds today
and tomorrow, have continued to undercut guidance for highs.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night - Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

A period of benign weather is in store for the rest of the work week
and into the weekend. High pressure will build eastward from the
Mississippi River valley Wednesday. Models are consistent now in
less of a rain chance with any warm front oriented northwest to
southeast in our vicinity. The best chance...only slight for this
forecast package...looks to be over the southwest forecast area
Friday and Saturday. Then on Sunday the GFS has a cold front close
enough to cause some rains. 12Z Euro and new Euro coming in are not
as quick with this front, so have undercut AllBlend pops a little to
lean more towards the Euro solutions.

Temperatures should fall into the 20s both Wednesday and Thursday
mornings, with daytime highs around 40 Wednesday then increasing to
the 45-50 degree range Thursday. The warmup will continue into the
weekend, with highs by then in the mid to upper 50s, still below
normal for late March, but likely a welcome change for the Easter
weekend.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 710 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

A deep area of low pressure will continue to lift slowly northeast
into Ohio this morning.  In the wake of this low, cold air and
scattered snow showers will continue to filter into the Ohio
Valley.  These snow showers will be scattered in nature, quickly
dropping ceilings/visibilities for a brief time only to quickly
improve once the shower rolls through.  Therefore, the best way to
handle these showers is with a TEMPO group through the first 4
hours.  The showers should become a bit more widespread after 16Z
across KSDF and KLEX, so will go prevailing IFR for reduced
visibilities after 16Z.

The other concern tonight will be winds.  Observations continue to
show winds gusting up around 25 knots which will continue throughout
the the day today, before the gusts die down and winds slowly
decrease this evening.  Snow showers should wane in coverage and
intensity after sunset this evening, but will continue through at
least the morning hours on Tuesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ023>025-028>043-045-048-049.

$$


Short Term.......KD
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........KD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 324 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.Short Term (Now - Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

The roller-coaster of weather continues this morning. Mother Nature
has shown her full hand to the Ohio Valley over the past 24 hours
with severe thunderstorms, strong winds, heavy rain, and now wintry
precipitation.

The potent upper level disturbance and associated surface low
continue to push off to the northeast.  In its wake, strong
westerly winds have enveloped the region, allowing much cooler air
to filter in.  The strong band of mid-level frontogenesis associated
with the TROWAL continues to pivot southeast across Indiana and
Illinois.  However, this feature is forecast to continue to weaken
as the system becomes a bit more vertically stacked and the surface
low quickly fills in , which is evident by decreasing reflectivities
over the past several hours.  However, there still may be a brief
window for some very light accumulations this morning mainly across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.  With surface
temperatures hovering near freezing and road temperatures in the
upper 30s, do not expect this snowfall to be heavy enough to
accumulate on roadways through the morning hours.

Attention then turns toward late this morning and early this
afternoon, as another upper-level trough axis swings through the
state.  As the cold core of the system moves overhead, lapse rates
will steepen substantially this afternoon.  Guidance differs
slightly in how the low-level thermal profile will look (with the
05Z RAP showing dry adiabatic lapse rates up to 800mb!), but all are
showing rather impressive low-level instability.  With the steep
lapse rates, ELs look to top out around -15C, which would promote
dendritic snow growth.  Therefore, think that moderate to locally
heavy snow showers are a good bet today, especially from Louisville
east into the northern Bluegrass.

The age old question then becomes, what will the impact of these
snow showers be.  With surface temperatures rising into the middle
30s, much of the snow will be lost to melting.  Additionally, road
temperatures will remain rather warm.  That being said, the isolated
heavy showers may have the rates to overcome the warmer ground/roads
and cause quick accumulations only to melt soon after the heaviest
precipitation moves out.  Additionally, strong westerly winds
combined with the blowing snow will create poor visibilities in the
stronger showers.  Therefore, believe there still could be some
impacts from these, even though amounts at any one location are
unlikely to exceed an inch at any one time.  For these reasons, will
go ahead and leave the Winter Weather Advisory as is.

The snow showers will linger into the overnight hours into Tuesday
morning, although the intensity should begin to wane.  By Tuesday
afternoon, the bulk of the snow showers should push east of the
area.  With the expected cloud cover and brisk westerly winds today
and tomorrow, have continued to undercut guidance for highs.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night - Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

A period of benign weather is in store for the rest of the work week
and into the weekend. High pressure will build eastward from the
Mississippi River valley Wednesday. Models are consistent now in
less of a rain chance with any warm front oriented northwest to
southeast in our vicinity. The best chance...only slight for this
forecast package...looks to be over the southwest forecast area
Friday and Saturday. Then on Sunday the GFS has a cold front close
enough to cause some rains. 12Z Euro and new Euro coming in are not
as quick with this front, so have undercut AllBlend pops a little to
lean more towards the Euro solutions.

Temperatures should fall into the 20s both Wednesday and Thursday
mornings, with daytime highs around 40 Wednesday then increasing to
the 45-50 degree range Thursday. The warmup will continue into the
weekend, with highs by then in the mid to upper 50s, still below
normal for late March, but likely a welcome change for the Easter
weekend.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2013

A deep area of low pressure will continue to lift slowly northeast
into Ohio overnight.  In the wake of this low, cold air will filter
in and change all precipitation over to snow.  One heavier snow band
looks to affect KSDF over the next couple of hours before weakening
and shifting over towards KLEX.  Within this band, visibilities may
fall down to 1-2 miles and ceilings will fall as well.  After
this initial band rolls through, the snow should become a bit more
scattered in nature.

The other concern tonight will be winds.  Observations continue to
show winds gusting up around 25 knots, especially across KBWG where
the winds look to remain the highest.  However, all sites will see
strong westerly winds through the overnight hours into the day on
Monday.

Snow showers will continue across all sites on Monday, with the best
coverage across KSDF and KLEX.  These showers will be moderate to
locally heavy at times, briefly dropping ceilings and visibilities
to IFR.  MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be the general rule,
however, so will only carry MVFR conditions through the day with
this package.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ023>025-028>043-045-048-049.

$$


Short Term.......KD
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........KD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 357 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. RADAR IS SHOWING SEVERAL
RETURNS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
WELL AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL
SUPPORT FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER
REACHING AROUND -10C THROUGH MID MORNING. RUC AND NAM SOUNDING
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...AROUND 12C...MOVING IN NEAR THE TOP
OF THE MOIST LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY TRANSITION
THE FZDZ OVER TO MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW AND FZDZ MIX OR TRANSITION
OVER TO ALL SNOW. AROUND 00Z SOUNDINGS WARM SLIGHTLY ALOFT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT 500MB TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION BACK TO A -FZDZ/-SHSN MIX...WHICH WILL
LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF. CONFIDENCE
LEVEL IN ANY ONE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE
HUGGING THE -12C ISOTHERM WHICH IS WHERE ICE IS INTRODUCED INTO THE
CLOUD...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A MIX OF FZDZ AND -SHSN IN THE FORECAST.
DELTA T VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -12 TO -14 ALONG WITH MOIST
LOW LEVEL PROFILES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THERE IS ALSO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WHICH MAY HELP FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS OVER THE
KEWEENAW.

TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SHSN AND FZDZ WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TO 850 DELTA T
VALUES TO BE AROUND -8C TO -9C...EFFECTIVELY REDUCING THE LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED FZDZ MAY LINGER OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN CENTRAL UPPER MI AS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE AREA OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ON THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...925-850MB...BEING PRESENT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS
AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
CLOUD THICKNESS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE AND A FEW
LOCALIZED CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTH-NORTHWEST LOCATIONS.
TYPE LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BARELY RISING ABOVE -10C. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LIGHTER SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE FZDZ AND IF ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OCCUR THERE COULD BE
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL LIMIT THE SNOW MENTION THOUGH...AS
CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE BECOMES FORCED BELOW 925MB. THIS
DOES LEAD TO SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS BECOMING TRAPPED OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC TO 925MB DELTA-T VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND
8-9C...SO LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE BE LIMITED. BUT IF CLOUDS ARE STILL
PRESENT FROM WEDNESDAY...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
LACK OF MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL TRY TO KEEP THEM IN
PLACE. THUS...WILL TRY TO HOLD ONTO MORE OF A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN HAVE DAYTIME MIXING TRY TO REDUCE
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY. ONE THING TO WATCH ON THURSDAY WILL BE
THE INCREASING SFC-925MB LAPSE RATES IF BREAKS DO OCCUR. THIS COULD
LEAD TO DIURNAL CU REDEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR WEST LOCATIONS WHERE
LAPSE RATES APPROACH 9C/KM. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLEAR EVEN THOUGH A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE LATE MARCH SUNSHINE. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND THEN UPPER 30S THROUGH MID
40S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND MOST OF IT/S ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE KSAW REACHING THE LOW 40S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THUS...IT IS LOOKING LIKE OUR OFFICE WILL END UP REACHING 40 DEGREES
AND KEEP THIS MARCH FROM BEING THE FIRST MARCH ON RECORD WHERE WE
DIDN/T REACH 40 DEGREES.

CHANGES LOOK TO ARRIVE FOR THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON THIS IDEA...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BASED OFF THICKNESS AND
THERMAL PROFILES...LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE DRY HIGH IN PLACE...QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY...MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER 850MB TEMPS
SURGE SOUTHEAST AND REACH -12C/ECMWF OR -10C/GFS BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATED BY THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WOULD SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR MONDAY. WILL TREND POPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM
A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME FRAME NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER
PENINSULA...EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR TO
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES ALONG WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORT MAINLY -SHSN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO -FZDZ OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT EACH TAF SITE WITH
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON REACHING AROUND THE 20KT RANGE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTENSIFIES BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO EASTER SEABOARD WILL LEAD
TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
BEYOND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 138 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN AND LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
A RIDGE OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...NE WINDS ALSO PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN OHIO AND A RIDGE FROM
SASK/MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. MARGINAL OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C ONLY SUPPORTED PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW (25-30 KT
950-900 MB WINDS) INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPSTREAM...PERIODS OF -FZDZ
WERE OBSERVED AT CYYU AND CYGQ DURING PERIODS WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTED MOISTURE WAS MORE SHALLOW.

AS THE NEXT BATCH OF 925-750 MB MOISTURE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AND MIN TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER
AROUND -10C...AND THE STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION BELOW THE DGZ...MAINLY
JUST SMALL SNOWFLAKES OR EVEN ICE PELLETS ARE EXPECTED WITH A LOW
SNOW/WATER RATIO. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR LESS.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM OBS AND TRENDS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SOME
PATCHY -FZDZ ALSO MAY MIX WITH THE -SHSN/FLURRIES THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AS THE MOIST LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW LATE TONIGHT OVER NCNTRL AND
TEMPS MODERATE TO NEAR -10C AT THE TOP OF MOIST LAYER PER MODEL
SNDGS...-FZDZ WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

UPPER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LINGERING
SFC-500MB TROUGH ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK AS THE 500MB HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

SLOWLY WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALL AREAS
/OR NEARLY ALL AREAS/ PUSHING ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY ON...AND
INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH TO OUR WEST
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION.  LOOK FOR SLOWLY DIMINISHING
UPSLOPE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AT
OR BELOW 800MB AND DEEPENING INVERSION HEIGHTS. THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY SATURDAY SWINGING A SIZABLE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH WILL
BE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST...AND A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY...AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI SUNDAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 25/00Z ECMWF LOOKS
TO BE A BIT DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE 25/00Z GFS KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR SOUTH...AND AS A
RESULT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION. STILL COULD GET AROUND 0.05-0.2IN
OF LIQUID OUT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WERE WARMED
SLIGHTLY...WITH A CONTINUED NEED FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 40F. WAA WILL RESULT IN 850MB TEMPS RISING
FROM AROUND -7C AT 12Z FRIDAY TO A CWA AVERAGED -1.5C BY 00Z
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 0C NEAR MENOMINEE AT 06Z SUNDAY. WAS A
BIT HESITANT TO JUST HAVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND THE FACT THAT IT WAS DAY 5-6...BUT
WITH LOWS NEAR 32F ALL RAIN WOULD BE A SERIOUS POSSIBILITY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO REDEFINE THE COVERAGE AREA OF
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER
PENINSULA...EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR TO
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES ALONG WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORT MAINLY -SHSN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO -FZDZ OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT EACH TAF SITE WITH
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON REACHING AROUND THE 20KT RANGE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTENSIFIES BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPRAWL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 745 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN AND LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
A RIDGE OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...NE WINDS ALSO PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN OHIO AND A RIDGE FROM
SASK/MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. MARGINAL OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C ONLY SUPPORTED PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW (25-30 KT
950-900 MB WINDS) INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPSTREAM...PERIODS OF -FZDZ
WERE OBSERVED AT CYYU AND CYGQ DURING PERIODS WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTED MOISTURE WAS MORE SHALLOW.

AS THE NEXT BATCH OF 925-750 MB MOISTURE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AND MIN TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER
AROUND -10C...AND THE STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION BELOW THE DGZ...MAINLY
JUST SMALL SNOWFLAKES OR EVEN ICE PELLETS ARE EXPECTED WITH A LOW
SNOW/WATER RATIO. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR LESS.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM OBS AND TRENDS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SOME
PATCHY -FZDZ ALSO MAY MIX WITH THE -SHSN/FLURRIES THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AS THE MOIST LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW LATE TONIGHT OVER NCNTRL AND
TEMPS MODERATE TO NEAR -10C AT THE TOP OF MOIST LAYER PER MODEL
SNDGS...-FZDZ WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

UPPER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LINGERING
SFC-500MB TROUGH ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK AS THE 500MB HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

SLOWLY WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALL AREAS
/OR NEARLY ALL AREAS/ PUSHING ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY ON...AND
INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH TO OUR WEST
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION.  LOOK FOR SLOWLY DIMINISHING
UPSLOPE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AT
OR BELOW 800MB AND DEEPENING INVERSION HEIGHTS. THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY SATURDAY SWINGING A SIZABLE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH WILL
BE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST...AND A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY...AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI SUNDAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 25/00Z ECMWF LOOKS
TO BE A BIT DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE 25/00Z GFS KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR SOUTH...AND AS A
RESULT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION. STILL COULD GET AROUND 0.05-0.2IN
OF LIQUID OUT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WERE WARMED
SLIGHTLY...WITH A CONTINUED NEED FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 40F. WAA WILL RESULT IN 850MB TEMPS RISING
FROM AROUND -7C AT 12Z FRIDAY TO A CWA AVERAGED -1.5C BY 00Z
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 0C NEAR MENOMINEE AT 06Z SUNDAY. WAS A
BIT HESITANT TO JUST HAVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND THE FACT THAT IT WAS DAY 5-6...BUT
WITH LOWS NEAR 32F ALL RAIN WOULD BE A SERIOUS POSSIBILITY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO REDEFINE THE COVERAGE AREA OF
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

AS MOIST AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL.
SOME -SHSN/-FZDZ IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT IWD/SAW WHERE THE
FLOW PRESENTS A BETTER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING AFTERNOON MIGHT RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMEN THIS
AFTERNOON...DEEPER MOISTURE THAN ON SUNDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE MVFR
CIGS. THE ARRIVAL OF EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL COOLING AND CYCLONIC NNE FLOW THAT FAVORS LK EFFECT/ENHANCED
PCPN SUGGESTS MORE -SHSN/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPRAWL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 509 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN AND LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
A RIDGE OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...NE WINDS ALSO PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN OHIO AND A RIDGE FROM
SASK/MANITOBA INTO THE PLAINS. MARGINAL OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C ONLY SUPPORTED PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW (25-30 KT
950-900 MB WINDS) INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPSTREAM...PERIODS OF -FZDZ
WERE OBSERVED AT CYYU AND CYGQ DURING PERIODS WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTED MOISTURE WAS MORE SHALLOW.

AS THE NEXT BATCH OF 925-750 MB MOISTURE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AND MIN TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER
AROUND -10C...AND THE STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION BELOW THE DGZ...MAINLY
JUST SMALL SNOWFLAKES OR EVEN ICE PELLETS ARE EXPECTED WITH A LOW
SNOW/WATER RATIO. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR LESS.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM OBS AND TRENDS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SOME
PATCHY -FZDZ ALSO MAY MIX WITH THE -SHSN/FLURRIES THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AS THE MOIST LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW LATE TONIGHT OVER NCNTRL AND
TEMPS MODERATE TO NEAR -10C AT THE TOP OF MOIST LAYER PER MODEL
SNDGS...-FZDZ WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

UPPER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LINGERING
SFC-500MB TROUGH ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK AS THE 500MB HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

SLOWLY WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALL AREAS
/OR NEARLY ALL AREAS/ PUSHING ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY ON...AND
INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH TO OUR WEST
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION.  LOOK FOR SLOWLY DIMINISHING
UPSLOPE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AT
OR BELOW 800MB AND DEEPENING INVERSION HEIGHTS. THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY SATURDAY SWINGING A SIZABLE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH WILL
BE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST...AND A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY...AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI SUNDAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 25/00Z ECMWF LOOKS
TO BE A BIT DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE 25/00Z GFS KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO OUR SOUTH...AND AS A
RESULT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION. STILL COULD GET AROUND 0.05-0.2IN
OF LIQUID OUT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WERE WARMED
SLIGHTLY...WITH A CONTINUED NEED FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 40F. WAA WILL RESULT IN 850MB TEMPS RISING
FROM AROUND -7C AT 12Z FRIDAY TO A CWA AVERAGED -1.5C BY 00Z
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 0C NEAR MENOMINEE AT 06Z SUNDAY. WAS A
BIT HESITANT TO JUST HAVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND THE FACT THAT IT WAS DAY 5-6...BUT
WITH LOWS NEAR 32F ALL RAIN WOULD BE A SERIOUS POSSIBILITY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO REDEFINE THE COVERAGE AREA OF
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

AS MOISTER AIR ARRIVES FM ONTARIO EARLY THIS MRNG IN PREVAILING CYC
NNE FLOW...EXPECT LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS TO BECOME THE RULE AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES. THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN/-FZDZ AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT IWD/SAW
WHERE THE FLOW PRESENTS A BETTER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.  ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING ON MON AFTN MIGHT RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
AFTN...DEEPER MSTR THAN ON SUN SHOULD MAINTAIN THE MVFR CIGS. THE
ARRIVAL OF EVEN DEEPER MSTR TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING/
CYC NNE FLOW THAT FAVORS LK EFFECT PCPN INDICATES MORE -SHSN/MVFR
CIGS WL LINGER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPRAWL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 613 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

AT 19Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE WAS ALSO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MATURING WAVE OVER THE
MONTANA-WYOMING LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW OVER THE WEAK WARM FRONT IN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...THE LIFTED AIR IS QUITE DRY (SATURATION DEFICITS
EXCEEDING 90MB) WITH POCKETS OF LOWER SATURATION DEFICITS. THETA-E
FOLDS IN THE 290-300K LAYER INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...SO SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL
APPROPRIATE THOUGH WE WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE/PROBABILITY LOW. THERE
IS SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY 70-90
PERCENT...SO SNOW IS LIKELY TO FORM ALOFT. TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOVE 0C...BUT WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
0C. THEREFORE...IF ANY PRECIPITATION CAN REACH THE SURFACE...SNOW
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE THE FORM IT WOULD TAKE. IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL AND THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL ARE
INDICATING SUBSIDENCE ABOVE A MOIST TO SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.
TEMPERATURE IN THE MOIST LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C...SO THERE
IS SOME RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO CLEAR...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WE ARE HAVING TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THEN ANOTHER
COOL DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE
ANCHORED IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH MULTIPLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN CROSSES REGION BY THE END OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUGGEST A NEED
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SEVERELY LACKING. CROSS SECTIONS
AND SOUNDINGS IN THESE AREAS SHOW A SATURATION WILL NOT BE
ACHIEVED SO HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. COULD BE AN INSTANCE WITH A NEED FOR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES...HOWEVER KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT.

THE STORY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUITE A BIT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE LOW AND
MID TEENS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THERE DOES
REMAIN A QUESTION TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET...DEPENDING IF CURRENT
SNOW COVER IS GONE...AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
AFTERNOON MIXING AND SOME INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. BUT...HIGHS AT LEAST AROUND 60 NEAR
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH 50S TO THE EAST LOOKS LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY. SOME INSTABILITY DOES BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MU CAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED. CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AT THIS POINT AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE A
STRONGER SIGNAL FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...AND MORE INSTABILITY TO GET WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. A
FRONT IS BEING PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUNDER MENTION WILL REMAIN IN THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...SHOULD JUST SEE
RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
AGAIN...THE SITUATION IS NOT LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH MODELS ONLY INDICATING MODERATE SHEAR
VALUES...AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW COME SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T BE REALIZED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
BE COOLER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

SO...FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...COULD AGAIN BE LOOKING
AT HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
ALSO...THE COLD FRONT IS BEING PROJECTED TO BE PLACED JUST SOUTH
OF NEBRASKA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
PASSING BY THE AREA ALOFT...COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE COLDER AIR...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SNOW AT TIMES. DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE FIELDS...AND A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE...CONTINUED WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
NOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN WY AND THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE...THE NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE STRATUS AND
PERHAPS FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN NEB TONIGHT. THE RUC HOWEVER
WILL HAVE NONE OF THAT KEEPING SKIES VFR. THE GFS...GEM AND ECM
MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR STRATUS. GIVEN THE CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT LOW LEVEL MOIST BIAS IN
THE NAM...THE FCST CALLS FOR VFR...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 354 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND WILL SHIFT OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BROAD TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND CONTINUE TO BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME MODERATION TO NORMAL IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY CUMULUS BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A LAKE SHADOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO KEEPING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN. THE ONLY ECHOES ON THE RADARS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME ENHANCED CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF UPSLOPE FLOW THERE. TEMPS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS AND IN THE NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS ARE RUNNING IN THE 40S
WITH THIS SUNSHINE BUT FURTHER INLAND AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ARE
SEEING UPPER 30S.

OUR WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL COME FROM NORTH OF THE
BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE
WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SPREADING WEST ACROSS QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS AND UPPER LEVEL RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING THE DISTURBANCE IS
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ALONG THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS.
THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS TO ROTATE WEST THEN SOUTH TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. KEEP THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW OVERNIGHT
FROM BUFFALO SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW. LOWER CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED.

A BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MORE CLOUDINESS SO KEPT HIGH
TEMPS COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY...MID TO UPPER 30S INTERIOR AND
LOW 40S LAKE PLAINS. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS ANY
PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE SNOW OR SNOW AND RAIN WITH COOLER TEMPS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN BE AN INCH OR LESS MAINLY ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE ON THE TUG HILL AND
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAINTAINS A MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW OF CHILLY AIR. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY.

THE STEADIEST SNOW FOR THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A THE AXIS OF THIS TROF DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A MORE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILE FOR
DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE JUST COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WITH LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 5-6K FEET. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS
TROF WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH DRIER AIR CAUSING
STEADIER SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND MORE
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS SUCH AS THE BOSTON HILLS...CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE. IN THESE AREAS...LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE LIKELY TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.

AFTER THIS FEATURE DEPARTS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A SUBTLE
500 MB RIDGE MAY BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED IN AN OTHERWISE
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN EQUALLY SUBTLE
EMBEDDED TROF EARLY FRIDAY. DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAVE TEMPERATURES
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH RAIN SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN GENERAL...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN
PERIODIC SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...WITH FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 40S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES ON
SATURDAY FINALLY BRINGING A DRYING TREND AS A RIDGE ALOFT ALSO
BUILDS OVERHEAD. 850MB TEMPS WILL STILL BE CHILLY AT AROUND -5C...
BUT INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. EXPECT LIGHT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS AND NEAR THE LAKES.

BY SUNDAY THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE 12Z EUROPEAN HAS SPED UP CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND NOW IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/GGEM SOLUTIONS WHICH
WERE RUINING FASTER ALREADY. BECAUSE OF THIS...NOW HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE
THAT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL REACH WESTERN NEW YORK DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. EVEN STILL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
ON THE WARM SIDE. AN ADDED BOOST OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY ALLOW THE
LAKE PLAINS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. THUS...ANY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD FALL
AS RAIN.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE AGAIN IN
DIGGING ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A FEW
SNOWFLAKES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TAKING A LOOK FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY APRIL...SOME RUNS OF THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS THAT THE
PERSISTENT TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MAY BE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN.
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/ HAS BEEN IN THE TANK NEGATIVE THE PAST
10 DAYS...PRODUCING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROFS IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
AND WESTERN EUROPE. WHILE THERE IS STILL A WIDE SPREAD AMONG AN
ENSEMBLE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...THE TREND SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONG NEGATIVE AO WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH EARLY APRIL. WHAT THIS
MEANS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF NEAR TO
PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS APRIL WEARS ON. THERE WILL
PROBABLY STILL BE SOME TROUGH AMPLIFICATIONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST WITH BRIEF SHOTS OF CHILLY AIR...BUT THESE SHOULD
BECOME LESS FREQUENT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL AS THE NEGATIVE
AO RELAXES. TIME WILL TELL...BUT AT LEAST THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME
HOPE FOR THOSE WHO WOULD LIKE SOME MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME LOWER CIGS DOWN TO MVFR TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTH. NOTHING MORE
THAN MVFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY.

ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MAINLY BEYOND 18Z. THIS MAY BRING SOME MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WHICH MAY BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND WILL DRIFT FURTHER OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...A MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON LAKE ERIE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...APFFEL/SMITH








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 649 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE EVENING UPDATE
WILL BE FOG CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
12 UTC. 19 UTC HRRR IS ALSO INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 06 AND 09 UTC. LATEST FORECAST
HAS PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAINLY OVER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK WITH NO
FOG OVER THE BARE GROUND IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES. ONLY UPDATES WERE TO LOWER SKY COVER
ACROSS THE CWA AND TEMPER THE DROP IN EVENING DEWPOINTS OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF FOG FROM AROUND 10 UTC THROUGH 15 UTC
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL COVER THIS WITH A PERIOD MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS AT KISN KMOT KBIS AND KJMS. WILL KEEP
FOG OUT OF KDIK FOR NOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
TWH





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 149 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUITE THE SN BURST ACRS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVE.
AREA OF MDT/STRONG MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTING OFF THE ERN SHR
ATTM...AND THE PCPN CONTG TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS IT
DOES SO. SFC LO PRES INVOF NC CST...W/ SECOND AREA OF LO PRES IN
ERN KY. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE W WHERE ADDITIONAL PCPN SPREAD INTO
THE CNTRL MTNS. MVMNT OF THAT AREA IS TO THE NNE...AND WHILE THE
AREA OF LO PRES DRIFTS INTO THE MTNS OVRNGT...THE MID/UPR LVL LO
LAGS BEHIND FARTHER W. THE CSTL LO TO MOVE NNE ALG THE
CST...THOUGH NOT ACCOMPANIED BY WDSPRD PCPN.

LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS THAT MAIN OF PCPN FM THE W PASSES BY TO THE
NW...THOUGH MAY CLIP FAR WNW CTYS AFT MDNGT. OTRW...XPCG SCT LGT
PCPN ELSW OVR THE FA. PTYPE XPCD TO BE MIX OF RA/WET SN (MAYBE A
LTL PL). ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS WILL BE CONFINED TO NW CTYS...2" OR
LESS...ELSW...A FRESH COATING IS PSBL. ACRS XTRM SE VA INTO NE
NC...SCT -RA/-DZ PSBL (THOUGH WON`T RULE OUT PL). LLVL WEDGE RMNS
FIRMLY IN PLACE OVRNGT. TEMPS TO STAY NRLY STNRY IN THE L/M30S
MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN OFF THE COAST MONDAY. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR WRAP
ARND MSTR ACROSS NRN NECK / LWR MD ERN SHORE CNTYS AS CRITICAL
THICKNESS AND WET BULB HEIGHTS SUGGEST PCPN CHANGES OVR TO SNOW
THERE AFTR 12Z. HOWEVER...SFC TMPS WILL BE ABV FREEZING SO ALTHOUGH
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SNOW ACROSS NRN CNTYS MONDAY...NOT MUCH XPCTD TO
ACCUM SO NO HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE. LINGERING UPR LVL MSTR RESULTS IN A MORE RAIN/SNOW SHWR
REGIME MON AFTRN. HIGHS IN THE U30S NRN CNTYS TO M40S SERN CSTL
CNTYS.

EVE PCPN ENDS MON NITE. COLD U20S-M30S. ANTHR WEAK S/W PROGGED
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTRN. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHS
IN THE M-U40S. HIGH PRS FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE RGN FOR THE MID
WEEK PRD. REMAINING CHILLY WITH LOWS TUE NITE IN THE U20S-L30S.
HIGHS WED IN THE U40S-L50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO
WENT WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO. GOING WITH A DRY FCST ACRS THE
AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN
FM THE WNW WED NGT INTO SAT MORNG...THEN THE HI MOVES RIGHT OVR
THE REGION THEN OFF THE CST SAT THRU SUN. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPR 40S TO LWR 50S THU...THEN WARM TO THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S SUN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...THEN RANGE
THRU THE 30S SAT AND SUN MORNGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNG HRS WITH PERIODS
OF LIFR POSSIBLE (ESP AT KRIC) WHERE PRECIP MAY BE HEAVIER. BEST
CHC FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP (SN/PL) WILL ALSO BE AT KRIC...WITH RA/DZ
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. NE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL TRANSITION
TO N/NW AND INCREASE THIS AFTN AS LO PRES INTENSIFIES JUST OFF THE
COAST AND PULLS NEWRD. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE TUE...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENLY PREVAIL. VFR/MAINLY
DRY WED-FRI AS HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE LEFT SCA AND GALE WRNG HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR ALL THE WTRS
THRU MON EVENG...BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. STICKING CLS TO
THE LATEST GFS MODEL AND ITS TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE LO
PRES SYSTEM TNGT THRU MON NGT. THE LO WILL START TO INTENSIFY JUST
OFF THE VA CAPES EARLY MON MORNG...THEN CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES NE TWD THE NRN ATLC MON THRU MON NGT. ENE WINDS 15 TO 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS EVENG/TNGT WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW
LATE MON MORNG INTO MON AFTN. GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL OCCUR OVR
THE CSTL WTRS MON INTO MON EVENG. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT NORTH
DURING MON AND 5-7 FT SOUTH THIS EVENING/TNGT. GRADIENT WEAKENS
LATER MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...SO HAVE ENDED HEADLINES BY MIDNIGHT
(ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY NEED TO THEN ISSUE SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR LINGERING 5 FT SEAS). OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ON TUE...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEADLINES PROBABLY NEEDED
WED-THU...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AT OCEAN
CITY BY MON EVENG/EARLY TUE MORNG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER...AS
WINDS WOULD BE OFFSHORE/NW BY THAT TIMEFRAME AND NOT SURE HOW WELL
THE MODEL IS HANDLING THE SITUATION. FARTHER SOUTH MDL KEEPS WATER
LEVELS BELOW FLOOD THRESHOLDS. IF WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST...THIS COULD BE UNDERDONE AND MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AT SEWELLS PT WITH MON MORNG HIGH TIDE. EITHER WAY...THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TOO FAST MOVING FOR MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOODING
SO NO CSTL WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL SNOWFALL AT RICHMOND VA (3.5" OR GREATER)

APRIL 3 1915 - 10"
MARCH 26 1971 - 8.4"
MARCH 20 1914 - 7.8"
MARCH 30-APRIL 1 1964 - 7.2"
MARCH 27-28 1947 - 6.9"
MARCH 24-25 1906 - 6.4"
MARCH 21-22 1943 - 4.6"
MARCH 25-26 1900 - 4.5"
MARCH 24 2013 - 3.8" **** UNOFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z/25
MARCH 22 1914 - 3.6"

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ048-049.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...SOME LIGHT PRECIPTIATION THIS WEEKEND...THEN PROBABLY
COLDER AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKING ACRS THE CONUS WL EASE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE WNWLY UPR FLOW BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED. BUT THE FLOW AT
HIGHER LATITUDES WL REMAIN BLOCKY. THE BREAK DOWN OF THE MIDDLE
LATITUDE BLOCKING WL ALLOW W TO E PROGRESSION OF WX SYSTEMS TO
RESUME...AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BUT IT WL BE TOUGH TO GET ANY
PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT WARMING AS LONG AS HIGH LATITUDES ARE
BLOCKED...AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY CANADIAN AIR IS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WK. THE PATTERN LOOKS UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIG PCPN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT HAVE MAINTAINED
A WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUD DECK FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA TO
WESTERN ONTARIO.  FLURRY ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST
PART BY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY GENERATED SCT
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  THINK
MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES
GOING THROUGH 01Z.  DRIER AIR IS MOVING SE OVER EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IS APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  BESIDES THE SNOW SHOWERS...CLOUD
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  CHALLENGING
CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS.  MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES WILL ONLY BE MODEST THIS EVENING...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A FAST
CLEARING TREND.  ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ALSO
FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RIBBON TO BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT...THINK CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AS HOLES DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  CLOUDS TO HANG A BIT LONGER OVER N-C WISCONSIN
WHERE FLOW REMAINS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  IN THE END...MOSTLY CLOUDY
THIS EVENING TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.  IF SKY CLEARS OUT
QUICKER...TEMPS WILL FALL LOWER THAN CURRENTLY PLANNED.  WILL GO
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OVER THE COLD SPOT OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO THE MID 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
TOMORROW...ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD SEE
LINGERING CLOUD COVER BECOME ENHANCED THROUGH DIURNAL TEMPS RISES BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...BUT SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE...SO WILL GO WITH TEMPS MAYBE A
DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SWD
FM CANADA CONTROLS THE WX ACRS THE AREA. MODERATION OF THE AIR
MASS SHOULD YIELD A LITTLE WARMING EACH DAY...ESP ONCE LOW-LEVELS
DRY OUT A BIT MORE AND THERE ARE FEWER CLDS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A CHC FOR PCPN WITH SHRTWV CROSSING THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. LATER SAT AND SAT NGT SEEM TO BE MOST FAVORED
TIME PERIOD. BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCING AT
BEST...PCPN AMNTS WL BE LIGHT AND SOME AREAS MAY MISS OUT ON THE
PCPN COMPLETELY.

UPR VORTEX DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR RGN COULD BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF LGT PCPN LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WK.
BUT IT/S MAIN INFLUENCE WL BE TO USHER ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

AREA OF CLOUDS OVER STATE...BEING SQUEEZED BY DRIER AIR BOTH ON
WEST AND EAST...WITH TIMING OF CLEARING AT TAF SITES THE QUESTION.
LAST PLACE TO SEE CLEARING LIKELY NORTH CENTRAL. CIGS ABOVE VFR
LEVEL...EVEN IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
NEXT FEW HOURS. CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CU
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WED AFTERNOON...THOUGH CIGS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

CONDITIONS FOR A FAST SNOWMELT NOT ON THE RADAR FOR
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND COOL
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. HOWEVER...THERE STILL WILL BE A GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE SNOWPACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK EACH DAY. RUNOFF POTENTIAL FROM SNOW MELT INCREASES
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL FRONT TO KEEP THE SNOWMELT
PARTIALLY GOING. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE MAIN AFFECTS OF RUNOFF
COULD PRODUCE SOME PONDING OF WATER...AND A RISE IN THE RIVERS
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN
OR MIXED PCPN MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT...BUT
PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......MPC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
221 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS
A PAIR OF CLOSED MID LEVEL LOWS TRACK NEAR THE REGION. THE MORE
POTENT OF THESE LOWS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE THE
OTHER LOW HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A COUPLE BANDS OF
SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE LIFT
FROM THE TROUGH WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
AS THE LIFT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN FROM
THE NORTH...EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE 24.16Z HRRR KEEPS THIS SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH 5Z...WHICH APPEARS
TO BE REASONABLE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL IMPACT OF THIS SNOW
HAS BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40 TO 50F
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW MELTING ON CONTACT
WITH THE ROADS. HOWEVER...AS THE SUN AND TEMPERATURES DROP
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE WET ROADS COULD HAVE SOME ICY PATCHES FORM
IF THEY DO NOT DRY OFF FIRST. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH.

WITH THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE WITH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. HOW
THE TEMPERATURES PAN OUT WILL DIRECTLY TIE INTO HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER THERE IS. BASED ON 24.12Z NAM/GFS RH FIELDS AND
SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL BELIEVE THAT THE SKIES WILL MAINLY BE CLOUDY
UNTIL THE RIDGE GETS IN. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO DROP SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...FROM -10C TO -12C...BUT THEN START TO
REBOUND GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BASED ON THE GRADUALLY THINNING CLOUD COVER...HAVE GONE
WITH A SIMILAR GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
221 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING +2C BY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM THAT THE 24.12Z GFS/ECMWF BRING INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
AND APPEARS TO STALL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AROUND MID WEEK.
THERMAL PROFILES FROM BOTH THE 24.12Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND AS RAIN DUE TO A DEEP WARM
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 800MB. WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 50F FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND A PERIOD OF RAIN
COMING THROUGH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POTENTIAL FLOODING ON
AREA RIVERS SHOULD THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO TREND THIS WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

AS EXPECTED...CLEARING THAT WAS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY IN THE
EVENING HAS MOVED ITS WAY SOUTH AND AS OF 05Z ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE CLEARING IS MOVING SOUTHWEST
QUICKLY...THUS HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AT BOTH TAF SITES BY
08Z. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DAYTIME HEATING PLUS
MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS WITH VFR CEILINGS. AS WINDS TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS...DRIER AIR ON THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATOCUMULUS TO
DISSIPATE. REGARDING THOSE WINDS...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHERE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
221 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1124 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

.UPDATE...

BAND OF WARM ADVECTION/FRONTOGENETICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW HAS DROPPED
SOUTH OF THE CWA AS LOW PULLS AWAY. WILL PUT INT FLURRIES AS
SWITCH TO VCP 31 REVEALING LIGHT RETURNS OVER CWA.

GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPING A LAKE-BAND WITH
HIGHER EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...THOUGH RAP ALSO SHOWING DECENT EL
HEIGHTS AND 1000-900 MB ALONG-SHORE CONVERGENCE BY 12Z MONDAY. WRF
BASED MODELS ALSO SHOW LAKE BAND WITH HRRR ALSO SHOWING A BAND
DEVELOPING BY 15Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS GOING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CIG HEIGHTS WILL HOVER RIGHT AT THE VFR/MVFR BREAK POINT OVERNIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER REGION
FIGHTS WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT TO EASTERN
SITES THAT COULD HOLD THEIR CIGS BELOW 3K FT....THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES NOT. UPSTREAM OBS FAVOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND
WILL BE FOLLOWED...WITH NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS EARLY IN THE FORECAST WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS
LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.MARINE...

CANCELLED GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHERN ZONE AS WINDS HAVING A HARD
TIME REACHING 30 KNOTS AND GRADIENT SLACKENING AS LOW PULLS AWAY.
COULD STILL SEE SOME 30 TO 35KT GUSTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE WARNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL ZONES
INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WEAK ONGOING 500MB VORTICITY ADVECTION IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN IL UP
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS LENDING SUPPORT TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEMI-PERSISTENT
ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY BAND APPARENT ON RADAR FROM SOUTHERN COLUMBIA
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN OZAUKEE COUNTY IS THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF
700-600MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. THE WAA AND FGEN
BAND IS FORECAST BY MESOSCALE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SLIP
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING.

REPORTS OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AREAS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. THE BANDS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY...SO LOCATIONS UNDER A BAND COULD SEE AN INCH ACCUMULATION
WITHIN AN HOUR.

VERY DRY AIR IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INCLUDING SOUTHERN MILWAUKEE
COUNTY AND ALL OF RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES HAS KEPT ALL SNOW OUT
OF THIS AREA ALL DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS
THE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND THAT WAA/FGEN BAND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

RECENT AMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM MITCHELL MILWAUKEE AIRPORT SHOW
850MB TEMP OF -8 TO -9C WHICH WOULD GIVE A LAKE-850MB TEMP
DIFFERENCE OF 10 TO 11C...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PRODUCTION. EXPECT THE LAKE TO CONTRIBUTE VERY LIGHT SNOW TO
LAKESHORE AREAS AT TIMES TONIGHT AFTER THE WINDS BECOME NNE TO NORTH
AND THERE IS A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO ACTUALLY
DEVELOP A BAND. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL SHOW VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS IN THE FORECAST QPF AND REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. AS FOR
TIMING...MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE EXISTING
EAST-TO-WEST BAND WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED NE TO SW
OVER MKE/RAC/ENW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THEN ANOTHER LAKE BAND
WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE LAKESHORE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECTING ANYTHING LEFT BY THE
AFTERNOON TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE AS THE 1000-850MB WINDS
TURN DUE NORTH.

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND EXITING LOW
PRESSURE AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE STRONG MARCH
SUN...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS CONTINUE A GENERAL MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AFFECTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY. THE MAIN JET WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SO NO
RELIEF IN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS
AROUND 522 TO 525 DECAMETERS.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTH...DIMINISHING THE SNOW CHANCES. THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB FOR STRATOCUMULUS AND POTENTIALLY
SOME SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY...WITH LAPSE RATES 7 TO 8 CELSIUS/KM
BELOW 850 MB.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS CONTINUE A WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.

AT THE SURFACE THE MODELS HAVE A WEAK HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WISCONSIN. ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK NORTH LOW
LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS CONTINUE THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WITH A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE THE WEAK HIGH ACROSS
WISCONSIN WITH THE GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS STILL CONTINUE THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WITH
A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AT THE SURFACE THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THICKNESS/850 MB VALUES INDICATE A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH MAINLY RAIN
SOUTHWEST AREAS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SLOW-MOVING AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IN AN HOUR. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITHIN THESE BANDS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING. CIGS COULD
DIP TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.

THE SURFACE TO 5000 FT FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND SWITCHES FROM EAST
TO NORTHEAST. INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL HELP PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THAT BEGIN NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH.

MORE FLURRIES AND MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL
TAF SITES.

MARINE...

HIGHER WINDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONE FROM WIND POINT TO WINTHROP
HARBOR FROM 22Z THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO RAMP DOWN TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN AFTER THAT EXPIRES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
DUE TO BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. THE BRISK WINDS WILL BE
PRODUCED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 356 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

A QUIET ZONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE ZONAL
LONGWAVE PATTERN COULD BE IDENTIFIED ON RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVERNIGHT. ONE OF THESE FEATURES WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SIOUX LAND AREA WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE
FURTHER UPSTREAM EXITING THE GREAT SALT LAKE REGION. WARM ADVECTION
FROM DOWNSLOPE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER LED TO SOME VIRGA AND PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. NO
CEILINGS BELOW 8000 FEET COULD BE FOUND ON ANY OF THE METAR
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

THE WARM-UP YESTERDAY FOLLOWING THE RECENT COLD SNAP WILL CONTINUE
INTO TODAY..DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE WISE...BUT SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THE WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL BE TOO LATE
AS FAR AS AFFECTING DAYTIME WARM-UP POTENTIAL. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
TOUCHING OR EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES FROM THE ARKANSAS RIVER SOUTH TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE GREAT SALT LAKE DISTURBANCE (AS MENTIONED
IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST
DOWN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID/UPPER
30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 7 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WEAK NORTHWEST ALOFT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY RETREAT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A INCREASING MOISTURE IN  THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S AND CLOUDS INCREASE
(LIKELY STRATUS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS).

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND
MORE PROBABLE CENTRAL KANSAS THAN THE FAR WEST. ANY POTENTIAL
SHOWER OR STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG MOISTURE POOLING
ZONE JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COMING INTO KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY ALONG A WARM
FRONT, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD SEEM MORE REASONABLE ON SATURDAY
AS LOW LEVEL FORCING PLAYS A ROLE.

WITH SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG NW FLOW
UPPER JET FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN CANADA, ANOTHER LARGE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AIRMASS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO BREAK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE U.S. GREAT PLAINS, BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD AIR WON`T BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNTIL
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
A 500 MB LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS COLORADO ON DAY 7,
PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEPLY SATURATED LAYERS SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW, DEPENDING ON WHICH MODELS`
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 14 TO 18
KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS DURING THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS...A NORTHEAST WIND WILL
PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 12
TO 15 KNOTS. NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY FROM VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  34  61  42 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  59  32  61  41 /   0  10   0  10
EHA  65  33  63  43 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  66  35  63  44 /   0  10   0  20
HYS  53  31  58  39 /  10  10  10  10
P28  62  37  61  47 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 415 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
NEAR 50N/50W ACRS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...WITH A UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO WSW INTO THE NE STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS
FEATURE STILL BY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY
TO GREENLAND...EXPECT A CONTINUED NW FLOW AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES TO
PUSH AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACRS THE NE AND MID ATLC STATES
THROUGH THU. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY
DRIER SO WILL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING WHEN SKIES WILL AVG OUT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY.
WV SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ESE FROM WV AND THIS
SHOULD BE SLIDING INTO THE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP AND WILL TEND TO AVG OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTN. RUC EVEN DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS SE VA THIS
AFTN WHILE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY. GIVEN DEW PTS IN THE 20S TO LWR
30S WILL GENLY DISREGARD THIS AND KEEP POP FCST AT OR BELOW 14%.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WHEN HIGHS WERE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 50 F THROUGHOUT THE REGION. WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THINK HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ACRS THE AREA (GENLY SIDED ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE). BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTH FROM THE NE STATES AND DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST ACRS THE N. TEMPS FALL FAST IN THE
EVENING THEN WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
W/ MIXING AND CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SOUTH CENTRAL VA
(WHERE LEAST AMT OF WIND WILL BE AND WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY
CLEAR)..TO THE LWR-MID 30S FARTHER N/E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS OF HANDLING THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE ON THU. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT
MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHC POP TO THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHORE IF THE
WAVE WERE TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE INCREASED NNW FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED IN SOME
AREAS...RANGING FROM AROUND 50 ACRS THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID
50S SOUTH CENTRAL VA. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL EXCEPT PROBABLY
AVERAGING OUT MSTLY CLDY FOR THE ERN SHORE. HI PRES WILL BUILD CLOSER
TO THE AREA THU NGT AND FRI...AND LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID- UPPER 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. OVERALL THE WARMING TREND STARTS FRI...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY AS
WE REMAIN IN NW FLOW. SKIES WILL AVG OUT MSTLY SUNNY W/ SOME SCT
AFTN CLOUDS. ON FRI WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 50S NE TO MID-UPR
50S FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. LIGHT FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...SO WILL GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS DESPITE THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. LOWS GENLY BETWEEN 30 AND
35.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND, SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND. RESULTANT
INCREMENTAL HEIGHT INCREASE WILL TRANSLATE TO A CONTINUED GRADUAL
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OVERRUNNING SHRAS/INCREASING BROAD ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. FRONT STILL LOOKS TO CROSS INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY LATER MONDAY W/RAIN CHCS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE RAMPING BACK UP BY LATER MON/EARLY TUE.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MAXIMA WILL FINALLY BE NEAR TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE
BAY (STAYING COOLER/IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST AS RELATIVELY LIGH
FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT). TEMPS FINALLY WARMING TO
NEAR/JUST ABOVE AVERAGE (M-U60S TO NEAR 70) FOR EASTER SUNDAY AND
ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN RETURN FLOW/WAA. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH BKN TO OCCASIONALLY
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 5-7K FT AND NW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. LAVMOS KEEPS
GUSTS GOING AT ORF WELL INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COOL AIR ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF DIURNAL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FROM THE W. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS TIL 10Z THURSDAY. IN SOME
CASES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
JUSTIFICATION TO KEEP HEADLINES IN PLACE. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
UNDERCUTTING THE WINDS A BIT AND THESE WINDS STARTED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR SCA IN THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
SCA IS MAINLY FOR SEAS WHICH ARE OCCASIONALLY REACHING 5 FT NEAR
20NM OFFSHORE...APPARENTLY DUE TO SWELLS. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AS GRADIENT SLACKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA IS INDICATED ON THU/EARLY FRI AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH RETURN (SOUTHERLY)
FLOW DEVELOPING SUN/MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH CROSSES BY
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 400 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
NEAR 50N/50W ACRS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...WITH A UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO WSW INTO THE NE STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS
FEATURE STILL BY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY
TO GREENLAND...EXPECT A CONTINUED NW FLOW AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES TO
PUSH AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACRS THE NE AND MID ATLC STATES
THROUGH THU. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TODAY IN
CAOMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL...MOSITURE FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY
DRIER SO WILL PRAOBALY SEE A LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING WHEN SKIES WILL AVG OUT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY.
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ESE FROM WV BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTN SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP AND WILL TEND TO AVG OUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTN. RUC EVEN DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACRS SE VA THIS AFTN WHILE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY. GIVEN DEW PTS IN
THE 20S TO LWR 30S WILL GENLY DISREGARD THIS AND KEEP POP FCST AT
OR BELOW 14%. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WHEN
HIGHS WERE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 50 F THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THINK HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S ACRS THE AREA (GENLY SIDED ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE).
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTAVE
DIVES SOUTH FROM THE NE STATES AND DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST ACRS THE N. TEMPS FALL FAST IN
THE EVENING THEN WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT W/ MIXING AND CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SOUTH
CENTRAL VA (WHERE LEAST AMT OF WIND WILL BE AND WHERE SKIES STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR)..TO THE LWR-MID 30S FARTHER N/E.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY SLGT DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS OF HANDLING THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTAVE ON THU. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT
MAY NEED TO ADD A SLGT CHC POP TO THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR IF THE
WAVE WERE TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE INCREASED NNW FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED...MAINLY
50-55 (COOLEST NE). PARTLY SUNNY SKIES (MSTLY CLDY NE). HI PRES
WILL BLD CLSR TO THE AREA THU NGT AND FRI...AND LOWS WILL AGAIN
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-UPPER 30S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MSTLY CLR THU NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S. OVERALL WTHE WARMING TREND STARTS FRI...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY AS WE REMAIN IN NW FLOW. SKIES WILL AVG OUT MSTLY SNY W/
SOME SCT AFTN CLOUDS. ON FRI WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 50S NE TO UPR
50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND, SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND. RESULTANT
INCREMENTAL HEIGHT INCREASE WILL TRANSLATE TO A GRADUAL WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
OVERRUNNING SHRAS/INCREASING BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT. FRONT STILL LOOKS TO CROSS INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY LATER
MONDAY W/RAIN CHCS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE RAMPING BACK UP BY
LATER MON/EARLY TUE.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MAXIMA REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD (M/U50S), FINALLY WARMING TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE AVERAGE (M-U60S
TO NEAR 70) FOR EASTER SUNDAY AND ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN RETURN
FLOW/WAA. EARLY MORNING LOWS GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH BKN TO OCCASIONALLY
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 5-7K FT AND NW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. LAVMOS KEEPS
GUSTS GOING AT ORF WELL INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COOL AIR ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF DIURNAL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FROM THE W. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS TIL 10Z THURSDAY. IN SOME
CASES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
JUSTIFICATION TO KEEP HEADLINES IN PLACE. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
UNDERCUTTING THE WINDS A BIT AND THESE WINDS STARTED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR SCA IN THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
SCA IS MAINLY FOR SEAS WHICH ARE OCCASIONALLY REACHING 5 FT NEAR
20NM OFFSHORE...APPARENTLY DUE TO SWELLS. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AS GRADIENT SLACKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA IS INDICATED ON THU/EARLY FRI AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH RETURN (SOUTHERLY)
FLOW DEVELOPING SUN/MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH CROSSES BY
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.



&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 1113 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

AT 19Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE WAS ALSO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MATURING WAVE OVER THE
MONTANA-WYOMING LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

THE RAP13 HAS A GOOD FIX ON THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING
EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SWRN NEB AND KEEPS THE ACTIVITY GOING
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL ALSO FCSTS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
PERFORMED BETTER WITH TUESDAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S SO A NEW
FCST IS OUT FOR THESE TWO ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW OVER THE WEAK WARM FRONT IN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...THE LIFTED AIR IS QUITE DRY (SATURATION DEFICITS
EXCEEDING 90MB) WITH POCKETS OF LOWER SATURATION DEFICITS. THETA-E
FOLDS IN THE 290-300K LAYER INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...SO SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL
APPROPRIATE THOUGH WE WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE/PROBABILITY LOW. THERE
IS SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY 70-90
PERCENT...SO SNOW IS LIKELY TO FORM ALOFT. TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOVE 0C...BUT WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
0C. THEREFORE...IF ANY PRECIPITATION CAN REACH THE SURFACE...SNOW
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE THE FORM IT WOULD TAKE. IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL AND THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL ARE
INDICATING SUBSIDENCE ABOVE A MOIST TO SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.
TEMPERATURE IN THE MOIST LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C...SO THERE
IS SOME RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO CLEAR...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WE ARE HAVING TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THEN ANOTHER
COOL DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE
ANCHORED IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH MULTIPLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN CROSSES REGION BY THE END OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUGGEST A NEED
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SEVERELY LACKING. CROSS SECTIONS
AND SOUNDINGS IN THESE AREAS SHOW A SATURATION WILL NOT BE
ACHIEVED SO HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. COULD BE AN INSTANCE WITH A NEED FOR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES...HOWEVER KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT.

THE STORY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUITE A BIT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE LOW AND
MID TEENS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THERE DOES
REMAIN A QUESTION TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET...DEPENDING IF CURRENT
SNOW COVER IS GONE...AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
AFTERNOON MIXING AND SOME INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. BUT...HIGHS AT LEAST AROUND 60 NEAR
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH 50S TO THE EAST LOOKS LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY. SOME INSTABILITY DOES BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MU CAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED. CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AT THIS POINT AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE A
STRONGER SIGNAL FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...AND MORE INSTABILITY TO GET WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. A
FRONT IS BEING PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUNDER MENTION WILL REMAIN IN THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...SHOULD JUST SEE
RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
AGAIN...THE SITUATION IS NOT LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH MODELS ONLY INDICATING MODERATE SHEAR
VALUES...AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW COME SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T BE REALIZED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
BE COOLER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

SO...FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...COULD AGAIN BE LOOKING
AT HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
ALSO...THE COLD FRONT IS BEING PROJECTED TO BE PLACED JUST SOUTH
OF NEBRASKA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
PASSING BY THE AREA ALOFT...COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE COLDER AIR...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SNOW AT TIMES. DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE FIELDS...AND A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE...CONTINUED WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
NOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN WY AND THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST RAP MODEL SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE FOR FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OTHERWISE...THE NAM MODEL
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE STRATUS AND PERHAPS FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
NRN NEB TONIGHT. THE RUC HOWEVER WILL HAVE NONE OF THAT KEEPING
SKIES VFR. THE GFS...GEM AND ECM MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR STRATUS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT LOW
LEVEL MOIST BIAS IN THE NAM...THE FCST CALLS FOR VFR ACROSS
NORTHERN NEB...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 531 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...THERE DOES SEEM TO HAVE BEEN A REDUCTION IN PRECIP
ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH WV IMAGERY NOW SHOWING BASE
OF SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED THE MTNS. SOME STRATOCU WERE ABLE TO FORM
OVER THE NRN NC FOOTHILLS EARLIER BUT THESE ARE ALSO BREAKING
UP...PROBABLY FOR THE SAME REASON. CURRENT POPS OK. REVISED TEMPS
THROUGH DAYBREAK FOLLOWING 4 AM OBS AND HOURLY LAMP TEMPS.

AS OF 3 AM WED...UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
TO CONTINUE ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION. WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE SEEN
ROUNDING THE TROUGH WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE COMING IN WED AFTN
AND PUSHING OUT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN
STEADILY NW IN THE MTNS THROUGH THU. HOWEVER HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN WHICH WILL RELAX THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEREFORE THE UPSLOPING WILL DIMINISH.  LLVL
MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW DRYING EXCEPT FOR BRIEF UPTICKS IN RH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIFT COMING FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCES. WITH THE FORCING
BECOMING WEAKER IN GENERAL THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND
IN PRECIP COVERAGE ALONG THE TENN/NC BORDER BUT THE TREND SHOULD AT
LEAST BE TO REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE. BY
EARLY DAYTIME THU ANY REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NRN
MTNS. ADDITIONAL TOTALS FROM THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND SREF ACCUM PROBS
SHOWING LOW CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

THICKNESSES DON/T MAKE A HUGE JUMP FROM WED TO THU...BUT DO MANAGE TO
RISE A BIT AS THE UPPER RIDGE NEARS...AND GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW BETTER WARMING...GENERALLY INTO THE MID 50S. THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 60 ONCE AGAIN. TONIGHT/S
LOWS REMAIN QUITE CHILLY WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF ANOTHER FREEZE
HEADLINE. NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER RH LACKING /FOR CIRRUS WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCES/ AND WINDS BEING CALM OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THU NIGHT LEAVING OUR
FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED NW COLD ADVECTION FLOW ALONG WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT FREEZING MORNING LOW TEMPS ON
FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM UP INTO THE U50/L60 EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT LLVL SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

FOR FRI NIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. WITH INCREASING MOIST LLVL SW FLOW AND
SOME DEGREE OF UPPER FORCING...LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...POPS RAMP UP INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE FRI NIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW PER MODEL SOUNDING. FRI OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY...ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW AND
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA SAT AND PRECIP BECOMES HEAVIER BY LATE SUN AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. POPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE
SAT AND RAMP UP INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE SUN.

THERE IS BROAD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TUE. THE NEW 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVE
SE TOWARD THE REGION. THEREFORE...I KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
09Z UPDATE...AT KCLT...ONLY CHANGE NEEDED IS TO BACK WINDS SLIGHTLY
FOR INITIAL PERIOD FOR APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT OVER KHKY AND AREAS TO ITS NW AS THAT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHED OVERHEAD. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE
REGION THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT ANY OTHER TAF SITE. LIKEWISE...SOME BREAKS OCCURRING IN THE
SW NC MTNS AS LLVL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC RIDGE APPROACHES FROM
WEST. CIGS REMAIN AT KAVL ATTM WITH A LOWERING TREND...NOW HOVERING
JUST ABOVE VFR THRESHOLD. RAP AND LAMP BOTH SHOW A BRIEF DROP TO
MVFR THERE BY 10-11Z. SOME MTN OBS SITES HAVE LIFTED WHILE OTHERS
HAVE LOWERED OVER PAST COUPLE HRS...BUT WITH WAVE HAVING PASSED WILL
FORGO A TEMPO FOR NOW.

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER WHERE UPSLOPE -SHSN AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...ALBEIT
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FOR THE MOST PART. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MTNS. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO WARRANT SOME
DEGREE OF MVFR CLOUDINESS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY IN -SHSN THOUGH
THIS WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CIGS AT KAVL INTO WED AFTN.
WINDS SHOULD BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY AS THE
SFC HIGH GROWS OVER THE GULF STATES...BUT RETURN TO LIGHT NW BY
EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS SEEN OUTSIDE THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS WILL BE A
FEW CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN WILL LAST INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE
NC/TN BORDER...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS
THROUGH THAT PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
IN THE LATE WEEK WITH VFR EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE DURING MID-WEEK...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL
TO 20-30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT BOTH DAYS.
WINDS SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE OUTSIDE THE MTNS...BUT AN
OCCASIONAL GUST OF AROUND 15 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. FINE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062-063.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ004>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ004>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...JOH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 442 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...THERE DOES SEEM TO HAVE BEEN A REDUCTION IN PRECIP
ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH WV IMAGERY NOW SHOWING BASE
OF SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED THE MTNS. SOME STRATOCU WERE ABLE TO FORM
OVER THE NRN NC FOOTHILLS EARLIER BUT THESE ARE ALSO BREAKING
UP...PROBABLY FOR THE SAME REASON. CURRENT POPS OK. REVISED TEMPS
THROUGH DAYBREAK FOLLOWING 4 AM OBS AND HOURLY LAMP TEMPS.

AS OF 3 AM WED...UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
TO CONTINUE ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION. WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE SEEN
ROUNDING THE TROUGH WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE COMING IN WED AFTN
AND PUSHING OUT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN
STEADILY NW IN THE MTNS THROUGH THU. HOWEVER HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN WHICH WILL RELAX THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEREFORE THE UPSLOPING WILL DIMINISH.  LLVL
MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW DRYING EXCEPT FOR BRIEF UPTICKS IN RH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIFT COMING FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCES. WITH THE FORCING
BECOMING WEAKER IN GENERAL THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND
IN PRECIP COVERAGE ALONG THE TENN/NC BORDER BUT THE TREND SHOULD AT
LEAST BE TO REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE. BY
EARLY DAYTIME THU ANY REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NRN
MTNS. ADDITIONAL TOTALS FROM THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND SREF ACCUM PROBS
SHOWING LOW CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

THICKNESSES DON/T MAKE A HUGE JUMP FROM WED TO THU...BUT DO MANAGE TO
RISE A BIT AS THE UPPER RIDGE NEARS...AND GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW BETTER WARMING...GENERALLY INTO THE MID 50S. THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 60 ONCE AGAIN. TONIGHT/S
LOWS REMAIN QUITE CHILLY WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF ANOTHER FREEZE
HEADLINE. NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER RH LACKING /FOR CIRRUS WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCES/ AND WINDS BEING CALM OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THU NIGHT LEAVING OUR
FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED NW COLD ADVECTION FLOW ALONG WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT FREEZING MORNING LOW TEMPS ON
FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U50/L60 EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND LLVL SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

FOR FRI NIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. WITH INCREASING MOIST LLVL SW FLOW AND
SOME DEGREE OF UPPER FORCING...LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THEREFORE...POPS RAMP UP INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE FRI NIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW PER MODEL SOUNDING. FRI NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. ENERGY WILL DIG ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY MOISTURE MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
MAKING IT EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BY THE TIME THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE
STARTS TO KICK EAST ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE PCPN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN EVENT...THOUGH SOME
MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS IF PCPN WERE TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS BROAD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE POLAR VORTEX WILL REASSERT
ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...IT/S UNCERTAIN HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE AND HOW FAR
WEST IT WILL DIG. THE NEW GFS IS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT PCPN DEVELOPS
OVER THE TN VALLEY AND WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA LATE MONDAY OR TUE.
THE OLD ECMWF IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FOR NOW I JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND DRY TUESDAY...BUT IT/S NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
09Z UPDATE...AT KCLT...ONLY CHANGE NEEDED IS TO BACK WINDS SLIGHTLY
FOR INITIAL PERIOD FOR APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT OVER KHKY AND AREAS TO ITS NW AS THAT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHED OVERHEAD. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE
REGION THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT ANY OTHER TAF SITE. LIKEWISE...SOME BREAKS OCCURRING IN THE
SW NC MTNS AS LLVL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC RIDGE APPROACHES FROM
WEST. CIGS REMAIN AT KAVL ATTM WITH A LOWERING TREND...NOW HOVERING
JUST ABOVE VFR THRESHOLD. RAP AND LAMP BOTH SHOW A BRIEF DROP TO
MVFR THERE BY 10-11Z. SOME MTN OBS SITES HAVE LIFTED WHILE OTHERS
HAVE LOWERED OVER PAST COUPLE HRS...BUT WITH WAVE HAVING PASSED WILL
FORGO A TEMPO FOR NOW.

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER WHERE UPSLOPE -SHSN AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...ALBEIT
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FOR THE MOST PART. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MTNS. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO WARRANT SOME
DEGREE OF MVFR CLOUDINESS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY IN -SHSN THOUGH
THIS WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CIGS AT KAVL INTO WED AFTN.
WINDS SHOULD BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY AS THE
SFC HIGH GROWS OVER THE GULF STATES...BUT RETURN TO LIGHT NW BY
EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS SEEN OUTSIDE THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS WILL BE A
FEW CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN WILL LAST INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE
NC/TN BORDER...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS
THROUGH THAT PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
IN THE LATE WEEK WITH VFR EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062-063.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ004>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ004>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH/MCAVOY
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 422 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SPRAWLS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK WAVE ARE PULLING AWAY...
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. HAVE NOT YET SEEN EARLIER
EXPECTATIONS OF WIDESPREAD FOG WITH A PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT MATERIALIZE WITH MOIST LAYER LIKELY JUST A BIT TOO SHALLOW
BASED ON RAP THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND GRADIENT JUST A BIT TOO
STOUT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...SO REMOVED FROM FORECAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...OUR LONG ADVERTISED WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY...AS BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ATTEMPT
TO OVERCOME LINGERING SNOWCOVER...GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 14...GREGORY COUNTY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHWEST
IOWA... ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
BIAS TO GREAT COVERAGE AND IMPACT...KEEPING SURFACE LAYER A BIT
TOO COOL OVERALL WITH EXCEPTION OF THE DEEPER AREAS. LIKELY TO
FIND A LITTLE PATCHY MID CLOUD DRIFTING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
THROUGH MIDDAY...AND WILL ALSO FIND A LITTLE FOG AROUND AND FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WHERE FLOW IS BIT WEAKER THROUGH THE
NORTH/EAST CWA...AND WHERE TERRAIN CAN HELP FOCUS. STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORED TODAY.

AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF MELTING AND LIMITED MIXING...LOOKS TO MOISTEN
UP THE SUB INVERSION LAYER A BIT MORE.  WITH LATER NIGHT SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND VEERING PROFILE...PROSPECT FOR A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG EXISTS...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE
OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...MAY BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FOR A
COUPLE MORNINGS AFTER THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY PAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALOFT FOR SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...AND THUS AM NOT LOOKING
AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND WILL SEE READINGS CREEP
UPWARD BOTH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AT LOW LEVELS.

A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. A LITTLE RICHER MOISTURE FLOW ON SOUTHERLY FLOW PRIMES
THE PUMP AHEAD OF TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD SEE
INCREASE CHANCE LEVEL POPS AS FRIDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS ALOFT FAR TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID...
AND PROGGED SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP FROM ANY FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY YIELD A COUPLE OF SLIPPERY
SPOTS WHERE DAYTIME SOLAR POWER FAILS TO REACH. DID TOSS IN
ISOLATED THUNDER TO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FIT SATURDAY
PERIOD... AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE ON SPEEDING UP THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH...MAY BE ABLE TO KNOCK BACK AFTERNOON CHANCE EVEN MORE.
THIS WILL SAY A LOT ABOUT TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDING BACK A BIT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND EAST.

WARMUP HAS AN UNFORTUNATE END WITH VERY STRONG WAVE DIGGING
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AND SHOVING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD SURROUNDING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GFS/CANADIAN AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12 HOURS
QUICKER. HUGE POTENTIAL DIFFERENCES RESULT FROM FRONTAL TIMING...
WITH ECMWF INDICATING A WINDOW FOR MIXING TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL BACK...BUT GFS/CANADIAN VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF THAT...AND LIKELY AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER.
SOMEWHAT MORE ECMWF INFLUENCE IN FORECAST...BUT WEIGHTED IT WITH
MORE IMPACT SOUTH THAN NORTH.

LIKELY THAT WILL GET A FAIRLY LARGE EXPANSE OF LOWER CLOUDINESS
SWEEPING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO DENDRITIC IN CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING
FLURRIES ONCE AGAIN AT TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD...NO APRIL FOOLS.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE VERY
COLD THEME...AS SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
FOG DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT
WITH MODELS DOING A RELATIVELY POOR JOB WITH MOISTURE...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL BE SOMETHING WE HAVE TO
WATCH FOR FUTURE UPDATES.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1233 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...SOME LIGHT PRECIPTIATION THIS WEEKEND...THEN PROBABLY
COLDER AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

THE BLOCKING ACRS THE CONUS WL EASE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE WNWLY UPR FLOW BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED. BUT THE FLOW AT
HIGHER LATITUDES WL REMAIN BLOCKY. THE BREAK DOWN OF THE MIDDLE
LATITUDE BLOCKING WL ALLOW W TO E PROGRESSION OF WX SYSTEMS TO
RESUME...AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BUT IT WL BE TOUGH TO GET ANY
PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT WARMING AS LONG AS HIGH LATITUDES ARE
BLOCKED...AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY CANADIAN AIR IS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WK. THE PATTERN LOOKS UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIG PCPN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT HAVE MAINTAINED
A WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUD DECK FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA TO
WESTERN ONTARIO.  FLURRY ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST
PART BY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY GENERATED SCT
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  THINK
MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES
GOING THROUGH 01Z.  DRIER AIR IS MOVING SE OVER EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IS APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  BESIDES THE SNOW SHOWERS...CLOUD
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  CHALLENGING
CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS.  MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES WILL ONLY BE MODEST THIS EVENING...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A FAST
CLEARING TREND.  ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ALSO
FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RIBBON TO BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT...THINK CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AS HOLES DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  CLOUDS TO HANG A BIT LONGER OVER N-C WISCONSIN
WHERE FLOW REMAINS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  IN THE END...MOSTLY CLOUDY
THIS EVENING TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.  IF SKY CLEARS OUT
QUICKER...TEMPS WILL FALL LOWER THAN CURRENTLY PLANNED.  WILL GO
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OVER THE COLD SPOT OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO THE MID 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
TOMORROW...ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD SEE
LINGERING CLOUD COVER BECOME ENHANCED THROUGH DIURNAL TEMPS RISES BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...BUT SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE...SO WILL GO WITH TEMPS MAYBE A
DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SWD
FM CANADA CONTROLS THE WX ACRS THE AREA. MODERATION OF THE AIR
MASS SHOULD YIELD A LITTLE WARMING EACH DAY...ESP ONCE LOW-LEVELS
DRY OUT A BIT MORE AND THERE ARE FEWER CLDS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A CHC FOR PCPN WITH SHRTWV CROSSING THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. LATER SAT AND SAT NGT SEEM TO BE MOST FAVORED
TIME PERIOD. BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCING AT
BEST...PCPN AMNTS WL BE LIGHT AND SOME AREAS MAY MISS OUT ON THE
PCPN COMPLETELY.

UPR VORTEX DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR RGN COULD BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF LGT PCPN LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WK.
BUT IT/S MAIN INFLUENCE WL BE TO USHER ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

CLEARING SKIES HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY INTO NE WI...BUT OVERCAST
CONDITIONS PREVAILED ELSEWHERE. CIGS WERE VFR...WITH BASES MAINLY
5-7K FT. CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD INTO EC WI...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HOLD IN ACROSS NC/C WI UNTIL WEDS NGT...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO WSTRN WI.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE MAR 26 2013

CONDITIONS FOR A FAST SNOWMELT NOT ON THE RADAR FOR
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND COOL
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. HOWEVER...THERE STILL WILL BE A GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE SNOWPACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK EACH DAY. RUNOFF POTENTIAL FROM SNOW MELT INCREASES
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL FRONT TO KEEP THE SNOWMELT
PARTIALLY GOING. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE MAIN AFFECTS OF RUNOFF
COULD PRODUCE SOME PONDING OF WATER...AND A RISE IN THE RIVERS
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN
OR MIXED PCPN MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT...BUT
PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......MPC








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 641 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

A QUIET ZONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE ZONAL
LONGWAVE PATTERN COULD BE IDENTIFIED ON RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVERNIGHT. ONE OF THESE FEATURES WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SIOUX LAND AREA WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE
FURTHER UPSTREAM EXITING THE GREAT SALT LAKE REGION. WARM ADVECTION
FROM DOWNSLOPE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER LED TO SOME VIRGA AND PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. NO
CEILINGS BELOW 8000 FEET COULD BE FOUND ON ANY OF THE METAR
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

THE WARM-UP YESTERDAY FOLLOWING THE RECENT COLD SNAP WILL CONTINUE
INTO TODAY..DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE WISE...BUT SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THE WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL BE TOO LATE
AS FAR AS AFFECTING DAYTIME WARM-UP POTENTIAL. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
TOUCHING OR EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES FROM THE ARKANSAS RIVER SOUTH TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE GREAT SALT LAKE DISTURBANCE (AS MENTIONED
IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST
DOWN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID/UPPER
30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 7 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WEAK NORTHWEST ALOFT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY RETREAT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A INCREASING MOISTURE IN  THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S AND CLOUDS INCREASE
(LIKELY STRATUS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS).

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND
MORE PROBABLE CENTRAL KANSAS THAN THE FAR WEST. ANY POTENTIAL
SHOWER OR STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG MOISTURE POOLING
ZONE JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COMING INTO KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY ALONG A WARM
FRONT, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD SEEM MORE REASONABLE ON SATURDAY
AS LOW LEVEL FORCING PLAYS A ROLE.

WITH SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG NW FLOW
UPPER JET FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN CANADA, ANOTHER LARGE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AIRMASS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO BREAK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE U.S. GREAT PLAINS, BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD AIR WON`T BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNTIL
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
A 500 MB LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS COLORADO ON DAY 7,
PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEPLY SATURATED LAYERS SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW, DEPENDING ON WHICH MODELS`
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. AS A RESULT SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  34  61  42 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  59  32  61  41 /   0  10   0  10
EHA  65  33  63  43 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  66  35  63  44 /   0  10   0  20
HYS  53  31  58  39 /  10  10  10  10
P28  62  37  61  47 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 951 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
NEAR 50N/50W ACRS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...WITH A UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO WSW INTO THE NE STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS
FEATURE STILL BY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY
TO GREENLAND...EXPECT A CONTINUED NW FLOW AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES TO
PUSH AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACRS THE NE AND MID ATLC STATES
THROUGH THU. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY
DRIER SO WILL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING WHEN SKIES WILL AVG OUT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY.
WV SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ESE FROM WV AND THIS
SHOULD BE SLIDING INTO THE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP AND WILL TEND TO AVG OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTN. RUC EVEN DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS SE VA THIS
AFTN WHILE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY. GIVEN DEW PTS IN THE 20S TO LWR
30S WILL GENLY DISREGARD THIS AND KEEP POP FCST AT OR BELOW 14%.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WHEN HIGHS WERE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 50 F THROUGHOUT THE REGION. WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THINK HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ACRS THE AREA (GENLY SIDED ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE). LOOKS LIKE
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES THEN
BECOMING STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
NE STATES AND DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY AT LEAST ACRS THE N. TEMPS FALL FAST IN THE EVENING THEN
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT W/ MIXING
AND CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SOUTH CENTRAL VA (WHERE LEAST
AMT OF WIND WILL BE AND WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR)..TO THE
LWR-MID 30S FARTHER N/E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS OF HANDLING THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE ON THU. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT
MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHC POP TO THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHORE IF THE
WAVE WERE TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE INCREASED NNW FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED IN SOME
AREAS...RANGING FROM AROUND 50 ACRS THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID
50S SOUTH CENTRAL VA. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL EXCEPT PROBABLY
AVERAGING OUT MSTLY CLDY FOR THE ERN SHORE. HI PRES WILL BUILD CLOSER
TO THE AREA THU NGT AND FRI...AND LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID- UPPER 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. OVERALL THE WARMING TREND STARTS FRI...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY AS
WE REMAIN IN NW FLOW. SKIES WILL AVG OUT MSTLY SUNNY W/ SOME SCT
AFTN CLOUDS. ON FRI WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 50S NE TO MID-UPR
50S FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. LIGHT FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...SO WILL GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS DESPITE THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. LOWS GENLY BETWEEN 30 AND
35.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND, SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND. RESULTANT
INCREMENTAL HEIGHT INCREASE WILL TRANSLATE TO A CONTINUED GRADUAL
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OVERRUNNING SHRAS/INCREASING BROAD ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. FRONT STILL LOOKS TO CROSS INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY LATER MONDAY W/RAIN CHCS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE RAMPING BACK UP BY LATER MON/EARLY TUE.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MAXIMA WILL FINALLY BE NEAR TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE
BAY (STAYING COOLER/IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST AS RELATIVELY LIGH
FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT). TEMPS FINALLY WARMING TO
NEAR/JUST ABOVE AVERAGE (M-U60S TO NEAR 70) FOR EASTER SUNDAY AND
ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN RETURN FLOW/WAA. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH BKN TO OCCASIONALLY
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 5-7K FT AND NW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. LAVMOS KEEPS
GUSTS GOING AT ORF WELL INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COOL AIR ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF DIURNAL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FROM THE W. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS TIL 10Z THURSDAY. IN SOME
CASES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
JUSTIFICATION TO KEEP HEADLINES IN PLACE. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
UNDERCUTTING THE WINDS A BIT AND THESE WINDS STARTED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR SCA IN THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
SCA IS MAINLY FOR SEAS WHICH ARE OCCASIONALLY REACHING 5 FT NEAR
20NM OFFSHORE...APPARENTLY DUE TO SWELLS. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AS GRADIENT SLACKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA IS INDICATED ON THU/EARLY FRI AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH RETURN (SOUTHERLY)
FLOW DEVELOPING SUN/MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH CROSSES BY
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 928 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND A
A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN NC.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AROUND THE
800 MB LEVEL AND COULD AGAIN SEE SOME COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE KEPT PTCLOUDY CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE 50 TO 54 DEGREE RANGE...EXCEPT
45 TO 50 OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. EVEN THOUGH THE RAP AND 4
KM WRF SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...SUB-CLOUD LAYER
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AND WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SCU EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
LOSS OF HEATING DURING EVENING SIMILAR TO PAST FEW NIGHTS. MAIN FCST
ISSUE WILL BE MIN TEMPS INLAND AS GROWING SEASON STARTS TODAY FOR
AREAS INLAND FROM COAST. MOS GDNC INDICATES LOWS 30-32 FOR KISO-KDPL
AND KOAJ...BUT HAS BEEN TOO COOL PAST FEW NIGHTS AS LIGHT W-NW WINDS
HAVE PREVENTED DECOUPLING AND KEPT TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST
PART. SEEING A SIMILAR SET-UP FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CAA
EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS 4-6 MPH OVERNIGHT...THUS KEPT MIN TEMPS JUST
ABOVE 32 AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WED...BOTH 26/12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED PACKAGE...EXCEPT THAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN PREVIOUSLY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY WILL PASS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
OF PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPS
TO CLIMB CLOSER TO NORMAL. MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING IN
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. I BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. TAPERED POPS BACK TO
SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MORNING...THEN SCT-BKN CU/SCU EXPECTED DURING AFTN WITH CONTINUED
SHRT WV ACTIVITY IN NW FLOW ALOFT. NW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT
DURING PEAK HEATING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /THU THRU SUN/
AS OF 310 AM WED...GOOD FLYING WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT. HOWEVER...NO THUNDER FORECAST SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BACK TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS WITH THE BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET SHOWING
6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER CAA SURGE. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THU THRU SUN/
AS OF 310 AM WED...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND USED BLEND OF THE
26/12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND DEEP IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTH. NORTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BACK TO WEST ON
SATURDAY THEN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS FORECAST TO RETURN ON SUNDAY IN RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/CTC/HSA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 1025 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH AT MOST PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. EARLIER
FORECAST WAS PRETTY GOOD BUT HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE. ALSO WINDS NEED A LITTLE ADJUSTING TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY INSTEAD OF EAST SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SPRAWLS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK WAVE ARE PULLING AWAY...
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. HAVE NOT YET SEEN EARLIER
EXPECTATIONS OF WIDESPREAD FOG WITH A PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT MATERIALIZE WITH MOIST LAYER LIKELY JUST A BIT TOO SHALLOW
BASED ON RAP THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND GRADIENT JUST A BIT TOO
STOUT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...SO REMOVED FROM FORECAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...OUR LONG ADVERTISED WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY...AS BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ATTEMPT
TO OVERCOME LINGERING SNOWCOVER...GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 14...GREGORY COUNTY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHWEST
IOWA... ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
BIAS TO GREAT COVERAGE AND IMPACT...KEEPING SURFACE LAYER A BIT
TOO COOL OVERALL WITH EXCEPTION OF THE DEEPER AREAS. LIKELY TO
FIND A LITTLE PATCHY MID CLOUD DRIFTING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
THROUGH MIDDAY...AND WILL ALSO FIND A LITTLE FOG AROUND AND FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WHERE FLOW IS BIT WEAKER THROUGH THE
NORTH/EAST CWA...AND WHERE TERRAIN CAN HELP FOCUS. STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORED TODAY.

AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF MELTING AND LIMITED MIXING...LOOKS TO MOISTEN
UP THE SUB INVERSION LAYER A BIT MORE.  WITH LATER NIGHT SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND VEERING PROFILE...PROSPECT FOR A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG EXISTS...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE
OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...MAY BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FOR A
COUPLE MORNINGS AFTER THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY PAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALOFT FOR SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...AND THUS AM NOT LOOKING
AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND WILL SEE READINGS CREEP
UPWARD BOTH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AT LOW LEVELS.

A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. A LITTLE RICHER MOISTURE FLOW ON SOUTHERLY FLOW PRIMES
THE PUMP AHEAD OF TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD SEE
INCREASE CHANCE LEVEL POPS AS FRIDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS ALOFT FAR TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID...
AND PROGGED SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP FROM ANY FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY YIELD A COUPLE OF SLIPPERY
SPOTS WHERE DAYTIME SOLAR POWER FAILS TO REACH. DID TOSS IN
ISOLATED THUNDER TO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FIT SATURDAY
PERIOD... AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE ON SPEEDING UP THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH...MAY BE ABLE TO KNOCK BACK AFTERNOON CHANCE EVEN MORE.
THIS WILL SAY A LOT ABOUT TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDING BACK A BIT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND EAST.

WARMUP HAS AN UNFORTUNATE END WITH VERY STRONG WAVE DIGGING
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AND SHOVING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD SURROUNDING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GFS/CANADIAN AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12 HOURS
QUICKER. HUGE POTENTIAL DIFFERENCES RESULT FROM FRONTAL TIMING...
WITH ECMWF INDICATING A WINDOW FOR MIXING TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL BACK...BUT GFS/CANADIAN VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF THAT...AND LIKELY AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER.
SOMEWHAT MORE ECMWF INFLUENCE IN FORECAST...BUT WEIGHTED IT WITH
MORE IMPACT SOUTH THAN NORTH.

LIKELY THAT WILL GET A FAIRLY LARGE EXPANSE OF LOWER CLOUDINESS
SWEEPING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO DENDRITIC IN CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING
FLURRIES ONCE AGAIN AT TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD...NO APRIL FOOLS.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE VERY
COLD THEME...AS SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME IFR
FOG AFTER ABOUT 9Z TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...25
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...08







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 658 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SPRAWLS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK WAVE ARE PULLING AWAY...
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. HAVE NOT YET SEEN EARLIER
EXPECTATIONS OF WIDESPREAD FOG WITH A PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT MATERIALIZE WITH MOIST LAYER LIKELY JUST A BIT TOO SHALLOW
BASED ON RAP THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND GRADIENT JUST A BIT TOO
STOUT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...SO REMOVED FROM FORECAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...OUR LONG ADVERTISED WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY...AS BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ATTEMPT
TO OVERCOME LINGERING SNOWCOVER...GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 14...GREGORY COUNTY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHWEST
IOWA... ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
BIAS TO GREAT COVERAGE AND IMPACT...KEEPING SURFACE LAYER A BIT
TOO COOL OVERALL WITH EXCEPTION OF THE DEEPER AREAS. LIKELY TO
FIND A LITTLE PATCHY MID CLOUD DRIFTING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
THROUGH MIDDAY...AND WILL ALSO FIND A LITTLE FOG AROUND AND FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WHERE FLOW IS BIT WEAKER THROUGH THE
NORTH/EAST CWA...AND WHERE TERRAIN CAN HELP FOCUS. STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORED TODAY.

AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF MELTING AND LIMITED MIXING...LOOKS TO MOISTEN
UP THE SUB INVERSION LAYER A BIT MORE.  WITH LATER NIGHT SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND VEERING PROFILE...PROSPECT FOR A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG EXISTS...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE
OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...MAY BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FOR A
COUPLE MORNINGS AFTER THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY PAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALOFT FOR SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...AND THUS AM NOT LOOKING
AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND WILL SEE READINGS CREEP
UPWARD BOTH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AT LOW LEVELS.

A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. A LITTLE RICHER MOISTURE FLOW ON SOUTHERLY FLOW PRIMES
THE PUMP AHEAD OF TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD SEE
INCREASE CHANCE LEVEL POPS AS FRIDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS ALOFT FAR TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID...
AND PROGGED SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP FROM ANY FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY YIELD A COUPLE OF SLIPPERY
SPOTS WHERE DAYTIME SOLAR POWER FAILS TO REACH. DID TOSS IN
ISOLATED THUNDER TO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FIT SATURDAY
PERIOD... AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE ON SPEEDING UP THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH...MAY BE ABLE TO KNOCK BACK AFTERNOON CHANCE EVEN MORE.
THIS WILL SAY A LOT ABOUT TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDING BACK A BIT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND EAST.

WARMUP HAS AN UNFORTUNATE END WITH VERY STRONG WAVE DIGGING
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AND SHOVING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD SURROUNDING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GFS/CANADIAN AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12 HOURS
QUICKER. HUGE POTENTIAL DIFFERENCES RESULT FROM FRONTAL TIMING...
WITH ECMWF INDICATING A WINDOW FOR MIXING TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL BACK...BUT GFS/CANADIAN VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF THAT...AND LIKELY AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER.
SOMEWHAT MORE ECMWF INFLUENCE IN FORECAST...BUT WEIGHTED IT WITH
MORE IMPACT SOUTH THAN NORTH.

LIKELY THAT WILL GET A FAIRLY LARGE EXPANSE OF LOWER CLOUDINESS
SWEEPING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO DENDRITIC IN CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING
FLURRIES ONCE AGAIN AT TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD...NO APRIL FOOLS.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE VERY
COLD THEME...AS SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME IFR
FOG AFTER ABOUT 9Z TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...08







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 602 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
332 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS TODAY THROUGH FRI...PRECIP CHANCES/TYPES LATE FRI NIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR
LK WINNIPEG TO EASTERN MO. CONSIDERABLE STRATUS REMAINED OVER WI/
EASTERN MN/NORTHERN IL EAST OF THE SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS. CLOUD DECK
HELPING KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
READINGS UNDER THE CLOUDS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER EASTERN SD/NEB WAS SPREADING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN IA...WITH TEMPS IN THESE AREAS
FREE OF THE STRATUS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WITH
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MN WERE AGAIN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

27.00Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS.
SOLUTIONS RATHER SIMILAR FOR TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT AS THE LONGWAVE
FLOW PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESSES AND HGTS GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE
REGION THRU FRI...THEN FALL FRI NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 27.00Z SHOWED THE
MODEL RUNS OF 25.00Z AND 26.00Z VERIFIED VERY WELL ACROSS NOAM/
EASTERN PAC...WITH A TREND FAVORING STRONGER OF EARLIER RUNS ON THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE OR/WA COAST. MODELS OFFER A GOOD CONSENSUS
FOR TODAY THRU THU NIGHT AS HGTS OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY RISE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RIPPLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. CONSISTENCY
IMPROVING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS FRI NIGHT. OVERALL TREND IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS
TROUGH BY 12Z SAT. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED MODELS
GOOD WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO CAN. MODELS
STRUGGLING A BIT WITH SFC DEW POINTS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...
AS THEY ARE WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS/MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. NAM LOOKED BETTER WITH THESE CLOUDS/MOISTURE...AS DID
LOCAL/REGIONAL HI-RES WRF MODELS. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL LOOKED GOOD
WITH THE NOAM/EASTERN PAC SHORTWAVE DETAILS. FAVORED NAM/HI-RES WRF
MODELS FOR THE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY/TONIGHT...THEN WITH MODELS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS THU THRU FRI NIGHT FAVORED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...NAM/SHORT-TERM HI-RES MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE/
CLOUDS IN THE 850-800MB LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT THRU
THE MORNING...AND INCREASED/HELD ONTO MORE CLOUDS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MS RIVER THRU THE MORNING. ALL MODELS INDICATE SOME EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SFC-850MB
RIDGE AXIS AND SOME SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO EASTERN MN TO WESTERN IL.
CLOUDS /OR NOT/ TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS TODAY. WARMER START IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA VS. THE WEST HALF...BUT MORE SUN
IN THE WEST HALF TODAY VS. THE EAST HALF. RAISED HIGHS A BIT OVER
THE WEST END OF THE FCST WITH LATE MARCH SUNSHINE LOOKING TO OFFSET
THE COLDER START AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOW COVER.

MOISTURE/STRATUS FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN AND A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
850-700MB WIND FLOW. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RESIDUAL SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
LOWS DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECTED
ABUNDANT LATE MARCH SUNSHINE ON THU ALONG WITH SOME WEAK 925-850MB
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL WARMING...EVEN OVER
THE SNOW COVER. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES/STRENGTHENS THU
NIGHT FRI AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW SPREAD SOME
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME THU
THRU FRI. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE TRANSIENT WITH SKIES GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR THU NIGHT/FRI.

LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY WITH THE STRONGER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS HEADS TOWARD THE AREA FRI NIGHT. MOISTURE
INCREASE AND LIFT WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 925-
700MB SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF/WITH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH THE PV ADVECTION/LIFT
ALOFT WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE. A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
PRECIP WOULD OCCUR BUT ECMWF/GEM/GFS HAVE NEAR OR INTO THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z SAT. HONORED THIS WITH A 20-
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA
LATE FRI NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE PRESENTS SOME PROBLEMS WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS LOOKING TO BE BELOW 32F LATER FRI NIGHT. LOWS FRI NIGHT
LOOK TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY SLOWLY RISING TEMPS LATE AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS ALOFT WARM. THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
PUSHES 925-850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT. ADDED
A SLEET/-FZRA MENTION TO PRECIP CHANCES LATER FRI NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WARMING LAYER ALOFT AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER.

USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY THRU FRI
NIGHT. IF CLOUDS CLEAR FASTER EASTWARD TODAY...HIGHS ALONG THE MS
RIVER MAY END UP A CATEGORY TOO COOL. IF SKIES STAY CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH THE LIGHT WINDS THU NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS MAY BE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
332 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

27.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LEAD SHORTWAVE
AND A SFC-700MB TROUGH TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SAT. THIS
HAS BEEN A RATHER CONSISTENT SIGNAL SINCE THE 25.00Z RUNS WITH ALL
MODELS NOW PRODUCING SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. RAISE PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE 55 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA. COLUMN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP TYPES EARLY SAT MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
END OF THE FCST AREA...BUT MAINLY -RA EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM ON SAT. CONFIDENCE GOOD WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES SAT...
BUT LESSER CONFIDENCE ON HIGH TEMPS. WITH MORE CLOUDS/-RA SPREADING
INTO THE AREA SAT MORNING...HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE LOW-MID 40S BUT WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S HIGHS FOR NOW.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS OF WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN. TIGHTENING CONSENSUS BUT GFS REMAINS
FASTER WITH COLDER AIR POURING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. GEM
NOW IT ITS CAMP BUT ECMWF MAINTAINS A SECOND FRONT AND THE COLDER
AIR TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. EITHER WAY...SUNDAY
TRENDS COOLER THAN SAT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MDT TO STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SMALL PRECIP
CHANCE SUNDAY IN COOLING CYCLONIC FLOW REASONABLE. IMPROVING/BETTER
MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BE SETTLING
INTO THE REGION FOR MON/TUE...WITH TEMPS AGAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WELL HANDLED IN DAYS 6/7 BY THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS DATA
SET.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
602 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

A BAND OF STUBBORN MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THE BAND IS SHOWING VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE EVER SO SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE 27.06Z NAM AND 27.09Z RAP BOTH SHOW THIS MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY AS IT SLOWLY CONTRACTS ON THE WEST AND
EAST SIDES. THIS SHOULD KEEP KRST OUT OF THE CLOUDS WITH CLEAR
SKIES BUT EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO HOLD ON THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AT KLSE WITH VFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...EXPECTING
EITHER JUST SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OR CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD WITH
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
332 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

 203 PM MDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE COAST OF OREGON IS SPREADING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE OREGON SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OREGON LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DURING THIS
TIME...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BECAUSE OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOCUS IS ON THE EVOLUTION
AND TRAJECTORY OF UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO DROP THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH INTO ARIZONA
WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WEAKER CIRCULATION...BUT MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS THEREFORE THE WETTER ONE
FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO...HOWEVER IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER
FEATURE. KEPT THE FOCUS OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN AS
TO THE INTENSITY OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. GFS
HAS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DROPPING OUT
OF ALBERTA. THE ECMWF RUN YESTERDAY SHOWED THIS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE...BUT TODAY KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...VIS IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD FIELD OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST. RESULTING HEATING COULD DECREASE
STABILITY OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN MEANING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. INDEED
THE HRRR HINTS AT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 251 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN 12Z MODEL SUITES INVOLVE THE
STRENGTH OF WAVES IN NW FLOW AND THE RESULTANT ARCTIC AIR SURGES
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SFC RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH ONLY SLOWLY EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH...LATE MARCH SUNSHINE TODAY CONTINUES
TO PUT A MAJOR DENT IN SNOW COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES UNDER
THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL. KSPI
RECORD IS 14F TONIGHT. WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE THE MERCURY DIP THAT
LOW...BUT SOME TEENS ARE LIKELY IN LOW SPOTS THAT RETAIN
WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER.

SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REACH APPALACHIANS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING SOME WAA TO PUSH INTO ILLINOIS. CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER
WARMING SOMEWHAT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES EACH
DAY...REACHING UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
MOSTLY UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COLD AIR CURRENTLY POOLING OVER ALASKA...CURRENTLY 20-30 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL...IS PROGGED TO GET CAUGHT IN GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SPILL DOWN INTO MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLDEST
AIR...SEVERAL SURGES WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS BEGINNING
SATURDAY...EACH COLDER. THE INITIAL FRONT ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD INTERACT WITH GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
GOOD CHANCE/LIKELY POPS. INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND
REACHES ILLINOIS AFTER SUNSET...SO WITH CURRENT TIMING THUNDER NOT
EXPECTED...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

FINAL SURGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS UNSEASONABLY COLD 850 TEMPS...
AROUND -10C...BACK INTO ILLINOIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED GIVEN THAT THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHUNT THE GULF
MOISTURE EAST WELL BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

BY MONDAY 12Z...850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE DROPPED 15-20C IN
APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY HOLDING ON TO 40S FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAYS HIGHS...BUT THE RUN-TO-RUN TREND HAS BEEN GOING COLDER.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAD BEEN A BIT WARMER THAN THE GFS AND GEFS
MEAN...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW ALSO TAPPING THE COLD AIR AND
PLUNGING A 5100 M 500 MB LOW INTO ONTARIO SIMILAR TO THE GFS BY
MONDAY SUGGESTING THAT HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL.

BARKER
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1247 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN LIGHT AND MAINLY
VARIABLE WIND.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE RUC AND HRRR MODELS...ALONG WITH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL CLOUDINESS
WILL RESULT IN BROKEN VFR CIGS UNTIL DUSK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK IS LOCATED...NEAR KSPI...WHERE LESS
HEATING WILL RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS.

LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS
AROUND 10KFT THURSDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN SW IL EARLY IN THE
DAY...AND THEN INTO CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE MORNING. KEPT THE CLOUD
COVER TO A MINIMUM IN EASTERN IL DUE TO CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MORNING AND WARM ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON AND
LATER.

MILLER
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 1246 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1106 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO SOME OF HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
INDICATED THAT MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SE IL HAVE CLEARED...
EXCEPT IN FAR EASTERN IL AND FAR SE IL. THE RUC AND HRRR MODELS
BOTH INDICATE THAT CU IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LAPSE RATES AND CONVECTIVE TEMP ON THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING
INDICATE THAT READINGS CLOSE TO 40 SHOULD RESULT IN CU
FORMING...SO PARTLY SUNNY LOOKS GOOD IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES IN
CENTRAL IL WITH MID 40S SOUTH OF I-70.

MILLER


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1247 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN LIGHT AND MAINLY
VARIABLE WIND.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE RUC AND HRRR MODELS...ALONG WITH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL CLOUDINESS
WILL RESULT IN BROKEN VFR CIGS UNTIL DUSK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK IS LOCATED...NEAR KSPI...WHERE LESS
HEATING WILL RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS.

LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS
AROUND 10KFT THURSDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN SW IL EARLY IN THE
DAY...AND THEN INTO CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE MORNING. KEPT THE CLOUD
COVER TO A MINIMUM IN EASTERN IL DUE TO CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MORNING AND WARM ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON AND
LATER.

MILLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS ARE STILL AFFECTING THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FEEL
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID REFORMING OF STRATOCU IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR
OUT FOR A TIME TODAY. OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS
WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN. GRADUAL THERMAL MODERATION
CONTINUES AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS BREAK INTO THE
40S...STILL AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. QUIET WEATHER WITH
SLOW WARMING TREND THU/FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER MO LATE THU AS MOST MODELS
SHOWING ENOUGH LIFT AND SATURATION FOR LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FEATURE INTO FRIDAY. NAM IS ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST CWA...WHILE ALL
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY AND WILL FOLLOW MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A POTENT MID LEVEL TROF DIVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SEND
TWO COLD FRONTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND.
RELATIVELY MILD AIR STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
HIGHS GETTING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED. THIS LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN EVENT QPF OF .1-.5
INCHES. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH
ECMWF NOW 6+ HOURS FASTER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE GFS SLOWER
SHOWING A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL BASE
FORECAST ON MORE CONSISTENT SLOWER TIMING BUT MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY ON NEXT COUPLE RUNS. A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WILL
OCCUR WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SEND TEMPS CRASHING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS
A CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850
MB TEMPS DIPPING INTO A -6 TO -10 C RANGE WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S AND LOWS INTO THE 20S FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL. A
SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MID- WEEK
SPREADING PRECIP BACK NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE COLD
AIRMASS. MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HIGH WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 1107 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1106 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO SOME OF HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
INDICATED THAT MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SE IL HAVE CLEARED...
EXCEPT IN FAR EASTERN IL AND FAR SE IL. THE RUC AND HRRR MODELS
BOTH INDICATE THAT CU IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LAPSE RATES AND CONVECTIVE TEMP ON THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING
INDICATE THAT READINGS CLOSE TO 40 SHOULD RESULT IN CU
FORMING...SO PARTLY SUNNY LOOKS GOOD IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES IN
CENTRAL IL WITH MID 40S SOUTH OF I-70.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS
THROUGH 12Z/7 AM THU. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 4.5-7K FT CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR TODAY OVER CENTRAL IL ESPECIALLY ALONG I-74 TAF SITES AS
SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA DIVES SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL BY MIDDAY
AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KY BY SUNSET. ALSO HAVE BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS 20-25K FT PASSING SE OVER CENTRAL IL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY SW AT SPI. WNW WINDS
5-10 KTS TODAY TO BECOMING LIGHT NNE TONIGHT AS 1029 MB HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST INTO IL BY
THU MORNING.

07
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LARGE AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS ARE STILL AFFECTING THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FEEL
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID REFORMING OF STRATOCU IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR
OUT FOR A TIME TODAY. OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS
WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN. GRADUAL THERMAL MODERATION
CONTINUES AND MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS BREAK INTO THE
40S...STILL AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. QUIET WEATHER WITH
SLOW WARMING TREND THU/FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER MO LATE THU AS MOST MODELS
SHOWING ENOUGH LIFT AND SATURATION FOR LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FEATURE INTO FRIDAY. NAM IS ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST CWA...WHILE ALL
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY AND WILL FOLLOW MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A POTENT MID LEVEL TROF DIVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SEND
TWO COLD FRONTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND.
RELATIVELY MILD AIR STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
HIGHS GETTING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED. THIS LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN EVENT QPF OF .1-.5
INCHES. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH
ECMWF NOW 6+ HOURS FASTER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE GFS SLOWER
SHOWING A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL BASE
FORECAST ON MORE CONSISTENT SLOWER TIMING BUT MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY ON NEXT COUPLE RUNS. A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WILL
OCCUR WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SEND TEMPS CRASHING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS
A CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850
MB TEMPS DIPPING INTO A -6 TO -10 C RANGE WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S AND LOWS INTO THE 20S FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL. A
SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MID- WEEK
SPREADING PRECIP BACK NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE COLD
AIRMASS. MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HIGH WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 1158 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

A QUIET ZONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE ZONAL
LONGWAVE PATTERN COULD BE IDENTIFIED ON RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVERNIGHT. ONE OF THESE FEATURES WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SIOUX LAND AREA WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE
FURTHER UPSTREAM EXITING THE GREAT SALT LAKE REGION. WARM ADVECTION
FROM DOWNSLOPE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER LED TO SOME VIRGA AND PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. NO
CEILINGS BELOW 8000 FEET COULD BE FOUND ON ANY OF THE METAR
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

THE WARM-UP YESTERDAY FOLLOWING THE RECENT COLD SNAP WILL CONTINUE
INTO TODAY..DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE WISE...BUT SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THE WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL BE TOO LATE
AS FAR AS AFFECTING DAYTIME WARM-UP POTENTIAL. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
TOUCHING OR EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES FROM THE ARKANSAS RIVER SOUTH TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE GREAT SALT LAKE DISTURBANCE (AS MENTIONED
IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST
DOWN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID/UPPER
30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 7 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WEAK NORTHWEST ALOFT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY RETREAT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A INCREASING MOISTURE IN  THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S AND CLOUDS INCREASE
(LIKELY STRATUS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS).

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND
MORE PROBABLE CENTRAL KANSAS THAN THE FAR WEST. ANY POTENTIAL
SHOWER OR STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG MOISTURE POOLING
ZONE JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COMING INTO KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY ALONG A WARM
FRONT, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WOULD SEEM MORE REASONABLE ON SATURDAY
AS LOW LEVEL FORCING PLAYS A ROLE.

WITH SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG NW FLOW
UPPER JET FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN CANADA, ANOTHER LARGE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AIRMASS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO BREAK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE U.S. GREAT PLAINS, BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT
OF THE COLD AIR WON`T BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNTIL
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
A 500 MB LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS COLORADO ON DAY 7,
PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEPLY SATURATED LAYERS SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW, DEPENDING ON WHICH MODELS`
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  34  61  42 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  59  32  61  41 /   0  10   0  10
EHA  65  33  63  43 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  66  35  63  44 /   0  10   0  20
HYS  53  31  58  39 /  10  10  10  10
P28  62  37  61  47 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 123 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
NEAR 50N/50W ACRS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...WITH A UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO WSW INTO THE NE STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS
FEATURE STILL BY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY
TO GREENLAND...EXPECT A CONTINUED NW FLOW AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES TO
PUSH AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACRS THE NE AND MID ATLC STATES
THROUGH THU. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY
DRIER SO WILL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING WHEN SKIES WILL AVG OUT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY.
WV SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ESE FROM WV AND THIS
SHOULD BE SLIDING INTO THE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP AND WILL TEND TO AVG OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTN. RUC EVEN DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS SE VA THIS
AFTN WHILE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY. GIVEN DEW PTS IN THE 20S TO LWR
30S WILL GENLY DISREGARD THIS AND KEEP POP FCST AT OR BELOW 14%.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WHEN HIGHS WERE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 50 F THROUGHOUT THE REGION. WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THINK HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ACRS THE AREA (GENLY SIDED ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE). LOOKS LIKE
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES THEN
BECOMING STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
NE STATES AND DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY AT LEAST ACRS THE N. TEMPS FALL FAST IN THE EVENING THEN
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT W/ MIXING
AND CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SOUTH CENTRAL VA (WHERE LEAST
AMT OF WIND WILL BE AND WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR)..TO THE
LWR-MID 30S FARTHER N/E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS OF HANDLING THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE ON THU. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT
MAY NEED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHC POP TO THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHORE IF THE
WAVE WERE TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE INCREASED NNW FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WED IN SOME
AREAS...RANGING FROM AROUND 50 ACRS THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID
50S SOUTH CENTRAL VA. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL EXCEPT PROBABLY
AVERAGING OUT MSTLY CLDY FOR THE ERN SHORE. HI PRES WILL BUILD CLOSER
TO THE AREA THU NGT AND FRI...AND LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID- UPPER 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. OVERALL THE WARMING TREND STARTS FRI...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY AS
WE REMAIN IN NW FLOW. SKIES WILL AVG OUT MSTLY SUNNY W/ SOME SCT
AFTN CLOUDS. ON FRI WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 50S NE TO MID-UPR
50S FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. LIGHT FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...SO WILL GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS DESPITE THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. LOWS GENLY BETWEEN 30 AND
35.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND, SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND. RESULTANT
INCREMENTAL HEIGHT INCREASE WILL TRANSLATE TO A CONTINUED GRADUAL
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OVERRUNNING SHRAS/INCREASING BROAD ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. FRONT STILL LOOKS TO CROSS INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY LATER MONDAY W/RAIN CHCS AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE RAMPING BACK UP BY LATER MON/EARLY TUE.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MAXIMA WILL FINALLY BE NEAR TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 WEST OF THE
BAY (STAYING COOLER/IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST AS RELATIVELY LIGH
FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT). TEMPS FINALLY WARMING TO
NEAR/JUST ABOVE AVERAGE (M-U60S TO NEAR 70) FOR EASTER SUNDAY AND
ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN RETURN FLOW/WAA. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IS
RESULTING IN A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 5KFT. WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED
SOME IN MOST LOCATIONS AS THE PRES GRAD RELAXES A LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO
20 KT THURSDAY MORNING WITH MIXING. THE SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND
6KFT WILL RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COOL AIR ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF DIURNAL CLOUDINESS INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
FROM THE W. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS TIL 10Z THURSDAY. IN SOME
CASES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
JUSTIFICATION TO KEEP HEADLINES IN PLACE. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
UNDERCUTTING THE WINDS A BIT AND THESE WINDS STARTED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR SCA IN THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
SCA IS MAINLY FOR SEAS WHICH ARE OCCASIONALLY REACHING 5 FT NEAR
20NM OFFSHORE...APPARENTLY DUE TO SWELLS. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AS GRADIENT SLACKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA IS INDICATED ON THU/EARLY FRI AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH RETURN (SOUTHERLY)
FLOW DEVELOPING SUN/MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH CROSSES BY
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA/JAO
MARINE...LSA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 624 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...OCCASIONALLY BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BUT BRIEFLY TURN SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WE WILL RETURN TO A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND 50 POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WITH EXCEPTION
OF NERN CNTYS AS THEY RMN UNDER SUBSIDENCE AFT FIRST S/WV PASSED
BY. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO WEAKEN BY 00Z TNGT BFR RE-DVLPNG AFT
MIDNIGHT AS MAIN UL TROF DROPS THRU AND REGENERATES POPS.

130 PM UPDATE...
WEAK WAVE IS DROPPING OVER THE REGION WHICH WITH DIURNAL HEATING
IS CAUSING EXPECTED BLOSSOM OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. AS PER LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WE
ARE HAVING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES COMPARED TO THE NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEHIND WAVE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES INCLUDING MOHAWK VALLEY AND NY THRUWAY...SHOULD
LEAD TO RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY THERE...BEFORE BETTER WAVE
DROPS IN LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST DETAILS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

RUC/RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND THUS MORE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE NAM. GIVEN THAT MAV AND ESPECIALLY
MET GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TOO COLD LATELY...AND THE EXTRA ENERGY FROM
EARLY SUNSHINE TODAY...THE MORE UNSTABLE RUC SOUNDINGS ARE A
BETTER REPRESENTATION. CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE THUS BEING REALIZED AS CAN BE SEEN ON THE RADAR THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...COMPLETE WITH BURSTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO...MET GUIDANCE AGAIN
HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE MUCH TOO COOL FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER DIURNAL ACTIVITY WANES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...A
BETTER UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP NORTH TO SOUTH 03Z-09Z
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE GENERALLY ONLY A FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...NOT FIGURING ON
MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BLENDED
GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES /MID 20S TO AROUND 30/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL FINISH EXITING SOUTH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL STILL SLIP
THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES WILL BE A GOOD 5 OR SO
DECAMETERS HIGHER...AND SO LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP. AS
DIURNAL ENERGY AGAIN TRIES TO BURP UP SCATTERED SHOWERS...THERE WILL
NOT BE AS MUCH INSTABILITY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS PRIOR...AND RIDGING
WILL ALREADY BE INITIATING ALOFT. I ONLY PLACED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS...AND MAINLY UP TO MIDDAY...FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT AND PASSING
WAVE. AS WITH RECENT DAYS...I HAVE STAYED ON WARM SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MAV WHICH
HAS BEEN MUCH TOO COOL LATELY. MAINLY 40S AREAWIDE. WETBULBING AGAIN
WILL ALLOW SNOW OR GRAUPEL WITHIN THE SHOWERS DESPITE TEMPERATURES
GETTING WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH
THAT WILL DIP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THOUGH FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
QUITE AWHILE...NOT ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RESIDENT UPPER LOW IN
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW...YET LAPSE
RATES ALSO STEEPER. THUS WITH THE PASSING FEATURE...DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY HELP TO REALIZE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

BY SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A BETTER RIDGE ON ITS
WAY IN. MOISTURE GETS VERY SHALLOW AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES
ALOFT. FIGURING ON A DRY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY DAY WITH STRATOCUMULUS
BECOME MORE CELLULAR AND THEN SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLD SAT NGT TO
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UL RIDGE. A COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH SUN AFTN AND EVE WITH MOSTLY RAIN...WHICH MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANOTHER BREAK LATE SUN NGT TO MON BEFORE
COLDER AIR COMES IN MON NGT WITH SNOW...A COLD FRONT AND STRONG
SHORT WAVE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT SO
SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUES AND WED. COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NE US.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS MOVING TOWARD BGM WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 630 PM AND 8 PM EDT. THEREAFTER THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS OF THE SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.

HOWEVER ENERGY MOVING OFF THE LAKES WILL CAUSE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES TO REFORM OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY HIT
AND MISS, AND WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. SO WE WILL FORECAST MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS.

GENERALLY LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN/FLRYS
THROUGHOUT THIS PD...MAINLY FOR THE CNY TERMINALS.

SAT TO SUN AM...MAINLY VFR.

SUN AFTN TO EVE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

LATE SUN NGT TO MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJP







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 411 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...OCCASIONALLY BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BUT BRIEFLY TURN SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WE WILL RETURN TO A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND 50 POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WITH EXCEPTION
OF NERN CNTYS AS THEY RMN UNDER SUBSIDENCE AFT FIRST S/WV PASSED
BY. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO WEAKEN BY 00Z TNGT BFR RE-DVLPNG AFT
MIDNIGHT AS MAIN UL TROF DROPS THRU AND REGENERATES POPS.

130 PM UPDATE...
WEAK WAVE IS DROPPING OVER THE REGION WHICH WITH DIURNAL HEATING
IS CAUSING EXPECTED BLOSSOM OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. AS PER LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WE
ARE HAVING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES COMPARED TO THE NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEHIND WAVE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES INCLUDING MOHAWK VALLEY AND NY THRUWAY...SHOULD
LEAD TO RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY THERE...BEFORE BETTER WAVE
DROPS IN LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST DETAILS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

RUC/RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND THUS MORE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE NAM. GIVEN THAT MAV AND ESPECIALLY
MET GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TOO COLD LATELY...AND THE EXTRA ENERGY FROM
EARLY SUNSHINE TODAY...THE MORE UNSTABLE RUC SOUNDINGS ARE A
BETTER REPRESENTATION. CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE THUS BEING REALIZED AS CAN BE SEEN ON THE RADAR THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...COMPLETE WITH BURSTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO...MET GUIDANCE AGAIN
HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE MUCH TOO COOL FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER DIURNAL ACTIVITY WANES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...A
BETTER UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP NORTH TO SOUTH 03Z-09Z
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE GENERALLY ONLY A FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...NOT FIGURING ON
MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BLENDED
GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES /MID 20S TO AROUND 30/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL FINISH EXITING SOUTH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL STILL SLIP
THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES WILL BE A GOOD 5 OR SO
DECAMETERS HIGHER...AND SO LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP. AS
DIURNAL ENERGY AGAIN TRIES TO BURP UP SCATTERED SHOWERS...THERE WILL
NOT BE AS MUCH INSTABILITY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS PRIOR...AND RIDGING
WILL ALREADY BE INITIATING ALOFT. I ONLY PLACED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS...AND MAINLY UP TO MIDDAY...FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT AND PASSING
WAVE. AS WITH RECENT DAYS...I HAVE STAYED ON WARM SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MAV WHICH
HAS BEEN MUCH TOO COOL LATELY. MAINLY 40S AREAWIDE. WETBULBING AGAIN
WILL ALLOW SNOW OR GRAUPEL WITHIN THE SHOWERS DESPITE TEMPERATURES
GETTING WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH
THAT WILL DIP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THOUGH FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
QUITE AWHILE...NOT ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RESIDENT UPPER LOW IN
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW...YET LAPSE
RATES ALSO STEEPER. THUS WITH THE PASSING FEATURE...DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY HELP TO REALIZE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

BY SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A BETTER RIDGE ON ITS
WAY IN. MOISTURE GETS VERY SHALLOW AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES
ALOFT. FIGURING ON A DRY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY DAY WITH STRATOCUMULUS
BECOME MORE CELLULAR AND THEN SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLD SAT NGT TO
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UL RIDGE. A COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH SUN AFTN AND EVE WITH MOSTLY RAIN...WHICH MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANOTHER BREAK LATE SUN NGT TO MON BEFORE
COLDER AIR COMES IN MON NGT WITH SNOW...A COLD FRONT AND STRONG
SHORT WAVE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT SO
SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUES AND WED. COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NE US.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR THIS AFTN...THEN FALLING TO MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE VSBYS TONIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SNOW SHOWERS. BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 2
AND 6Z EVERYWHERE. WITH NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO ADD TO THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THU MORNING BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z.

WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20
KTS THIS AFTN. W TO NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. THU W TO NW AT
8 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN/FLRYS
THROUGHOUT THIS PD...MAINLY FOR THE CNY TERMINALS.

SAT TO SUN AM...MAINLY VFR.

SUN AFTN TO EVE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

LATE SUN NGT TO MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 356 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 107 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BUMPED UP TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
GETTING MUCH WARMER THAN 45 TO 50 WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE NOW. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES LIKELY DUE TO THE BROWN
GROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WE`LL LOSE THIS WITH
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

A WEAK BACKDOOR WARM FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NEK.

FOR BTV RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AFTER 00Z.

IT SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY NICE SPRING DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT THIS
TIME WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY SO THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. EXPECTING 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING...AS MODELS
SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE AT 500 MB BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
BE PUSHED OFF SHORE ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNCERTAIN IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN STEADY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING PRECIP INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT SE...ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS WARM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN RAIN
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TRN. RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING SW-W...ALLOWING PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. THREAT FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL
VORTICITY ROTATES ABOUT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH VALLEYS REACHING L50S BY SUNDAY WILL COOL
TO THE U30S ON TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 20S TO NEAR
30 SATURDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE U20S-U30S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. NE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BRING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NE TO SW. NW FLOW AT THE
SFC MAY HELP SLGTLY TO IMPEDE MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS. VCSH
THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO -SHSN/-RASN AS VORTICITY AND
TROUGH MOVE FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO DECREASE TO MVFR...WITH VSBYS
FOLLOWING: MPV AT 21Z...PBG/BTV/MSS/SLK BTWN 00Z-03Z...AND RUT AT
05Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS MAINLY OUT OF NW-N AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTY UP TO 25KTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTN WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH PSBL MVFR
IN -SHSN IN THE MTNS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN
HIGH PRESSURE.
18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 242 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...OCCASIONALLY BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BUT BRIEFLY TURN SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WE WILL RETURN TO A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
WEAK WAVE IS DROPPING OVER THE REGION WHICH WITH DIURNAL HEATING
IS CAUSING EXPECTED BLOSSOM OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. AS PER LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WE
ARE HAVING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES COMPARED TO THE NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEHIND WAVE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES INCLUDING MOHAWK VALLEY AND NY THRUWAY...SHOULD
LEAD TO RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY THERE...BEFORE BETTER WAVE
DROPS IN LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST DETAILS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

RUC/RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND THUS MORE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE NAM. GIVEN THAT MAV AND ESPECIALLY
MET GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TOO COLD LATELY...AND THE EXTRA ENERGY FROM
EARLY SUNSHINE TODAY...THE MORE UNSTABLE RUC SOUNDINGS ARE A
BETTER REPRESENTATION. CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE THUS BEING REALIZED AS CAN BE SEEN ON THE RADAR THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...COMPLETE WITH BURSTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO...MET GUIDANCE AGAIN
HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE MUCH TOO COOL FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER DIURNAL ACTIVITY WANES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...A
BETTER UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP NORTH TO SOUTH 03Z-09Z
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE GENERALLY ONLY A FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...NOT FIGURING ON
MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BLENDED
GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES /MID 20S TO AROUND 30/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL FINISH EXITING SOUTH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL STILL SLIP
THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES WILL BE A GOOD 5 OR SO
DECAMETERS HIGHER...AND SO LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP. AS
DIURNAL ENERGY AGAIN TRIES TO BURP UP SCATTERED SHOWERS...THERE WILL
NOT BE AS MUCH INSTABILITY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS PRIOR...AND RIDGING
WILL ALREADY BE INITIATING ALOFT. I ONLY PLACED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS...AND MAINLY UP TO MIDDAY...FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT AND PASSING
WAVE. AS WITH RECENT DAYS...I HAVE STAYED ON WARM SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MAV WHICH
HAS BEEN MUCH TOO COOL LATELY. MAINLY 40S AREAWIDE. WETBULBING AGAIN
WILL ALLOW SNOW OR GRAUPEL WITHIN THE SHOWERS DESPITE TEMPERATURES
GETTING WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH
THAT WILL DIP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THOUGH FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
QUITE AWHILE...NOT ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RESIDENT UPPER LOW IN
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW...YET LAPSE
RATES ALSO STEEPER. THUS WITH THE PASSING FEATURE...DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY HELP TO REALIZE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

BY SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A BETTER RIDGE ON ITS
WAY IN. MOISTURE GETS VERY SHALLOW AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES
ALOFT. FIGURING ON A DRY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY DAY WITH STRATOCUMULUS
BECOME MORE CELLULAR AND THEN SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLD SAT NGT TO
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UL RIDGE. A COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH SUN AFTN AND EVE WITH MOSTLY RAIN...WHICH MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANOTHER BREAK LATE SUN NGT TO MON BEFORE
COLDER AIR COMES IN MON NGT WITH SNOW...A COLD FRONT AND STRONG
SHORT WAVE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT SO
SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUES AND WED. COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NE US.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR THIS AFTN...THEN FALLING TO MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE VSBYS TONIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SNOW SHOWERS. BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 2
AND 6Z EVERYWHERE. WITH NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO ADD TO THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THU MORNING BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z.

WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20
KTS THIS AFTN. W TO NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. THU W TO NW AT
8 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN/FLRYS
THROUGHOUT THIS PD...MAINLY FOR THE CNY TERMINALS.

SAT TO SUN AM...MAINLY VFR.

SUN AFTN TO EVE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

LATE SUN NGT TO MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 204 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...OCCASIONALLY BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BUT BRIEFLY TURN SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WE WILL RETURN TO A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
WEAK WAVE IS DROPPING OVER THE REGION WHICH WITH DIURNAL HEATING
IS CAUSING EXPECTED BLOSSOM OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. AS PER LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WE
ARE HAVING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES COMPARED TO THE NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEHIND WAVE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES INCLUDING MOHAWK VALLEY AND NY THRUWAY...SHOULD
LEAD TO RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY THERE...BEFORE BETTER WAVE
DROPS IN LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST DETAILS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

RUC/RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND THUS MORE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE NAM. GIVEN THAT MAV AND ESPECIALLY
MET GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TOO COLD LATELY...AND THE EXTRA ENERGY FROM
EARLY SUNSHINE TODAY...THE MORE UNSTABLE RUC SOUNDINGS ARE A
BETTER REPRESENTATION. CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE THUS BEING REALIZED AS CAN BE SEEN ON THE RADAR THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...COMPLETE WITH BURSTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO...MET GUIDANCE AGAIN
HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE MUCH TOO COOL FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER DIURNAL ACTIVITY WANES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...A
BETTER UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP NORTH TO SOUTH 03Z-09Z
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE GENERALLY ONLY A FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...NOT FIGURING ON
MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BLENDED
GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES /MID 20S TO AROUND 30/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES, SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SKIES WILL
BE PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLD SAT NGT TO
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UL RIDGE. A COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH SUN AFTN AND EVE WITH MOSTLY RAIN...WHICH MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANOTHER BREAK LATE SUN NGT TO MON BEFORE
COLDER AIR COMES IN MON NGT WITH SNOW...A COLD FRONT AND STRONG
SHORT WAVE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT SO
SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUES AND WED. COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NE US.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR THIS AFTN...THEN FALLING TO MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE VSBYS TONIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SNOW SHOWERS. BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 2
AND 6Z EVERYWHERE. WITH NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO ADD TO THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THU MORNING BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z.

WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20
KTS THIS AFTN. W TO NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. THU W TO NW AT
8 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN/FLRYS
THROUGHOUT THIS PD...MAINLY FOR THE CNY TERMINALS.

SAT TO SUN AM...MAINLY VFR.

SUN AFTN TO EVE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

LATE SUN NGT TO MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 201 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 107 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BUMPED UP TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
GETTING MUCH WARMER THAN 45 TO 50 WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE NOW. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES LIKELY DUE TO THE BROWN
GROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WE`LL LOSE THIS WITH
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

A WEAK BACKDOOR WARM FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NEK.

FOR BTV RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AFTER 00Z.

IT SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY NICE SPRING DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT THIS
TIME WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY SO THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. EXPECTING 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING...AS MODELS
SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE AT 500 MB BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE THEREFORE HAVE
MENTIONED CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY ABOUT 00Z
MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES. LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...AND COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN
OVER TO SNOW...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
SHUNTED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL
TRAIL THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. LARGE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...SLOWLY TRACKING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
VORT MAXES ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW/TROF...SO WILL PROBABLY SEE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH TRENDS BACK BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOLLOWING COLD
FROPA AND THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION OUT OF
CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. NE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BRING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NE TO SW. NW FLOW AT THE
SFC MAY HELP SLGTLY TO IMPEDE MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS. VCSH
THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO -SHSN/-RASN AS VORTICITY AND
TROUGH MOVE FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO DECREASE TO MVFR...WITH VSBYS
FOLLOWING: MPV AT 21Z...PBG/BTV/MSS/SLK BTWN 00Z-03Z...AND RUT AT
05Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS MAINLY OUT OF NW-N AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTY UP TO 25KTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTN WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH PSBL MVFR
IN -SHSN IN THE MTNS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN
HIGH PRESSURE.
18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 132 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...OCCASIONALLY BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BUT BRIEFLY TURN SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WE WILL RETURN TO A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
WEAK WAVE IS DROPPING OVER THE REGION WHICH WITH DIURNAL HEATING
IS CAUSING EXPECTED BLOSSOM OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. AS PER LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WE
ARE HAVING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES COMPARED TO THE NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEHIND WAVE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES INCLUDING MOHAWK VALLEY AND NY THRUWAY...SHOULD
LEAD TO RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY THERE...BEFORE BETTER WAVE
DROPS IN LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST DETAILS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

RUC/RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND THUS MORE
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE NAM. GIVEN THAT MAV AND ESPECIALLY
MET GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TOO COLD LATELY...AND THE EXTRA ENERGY FROM
EARLY SUNSHINE TODAY...THE MORE UNSTABLE RUC SOUNDINGS ARE A
BETTER REPRESENTATION. CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE THUS BEING REALIZED AS CAN BE SEEN ON THE RADAR THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...COMPLETE WITH BURSTS OF GRAUPEL. ALSO...MET GUIDANCE AGAIN
HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE MUCH TOO COOL FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER DIURNAL ACTIVITY WANES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...A
BETTER UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP NORTH TO SOUTH 03Z-09Z
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE GENERALLY ONLY A FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...NOT FIGURING ON
MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BLENDED
GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES /MID 20S TO AROUND 30/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES, SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SKIES WILL
BE PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH A DRY
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. BUMPED
UP POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO HIGH CHANCE WITH BOTH THE EURO AND GFS IN
AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY MORNING BUT IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS ANOTHER TROF SETS AIM ON OUR
AREA. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


330 PM UPDATE...UL BLOCKING WL CONTINUE THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE CNTRD OVR GREENLAND. 12Z GFS AND
EURO BRINGS A WEAK S/WV RIDGE INTO AREA 00-12Z SUNDAY, BRINGING A
BRIEF END TO THE NEVER-ENDING PCPN.

NEXT SYSTEM WL DRAG A CLD FNT TWD CWA ON SUNDAY AFTN AS H5 HGTS
APPCH 550 DM, YIELDING HIGHS ARND 50F. LIGHT RAIN WL SPREAD IN SUN
NGT THRU MONDAY AND FOR NOW HV GONE WITH HICHC POPS. AS CLD AIR
MVS IN BHND SYSTEM A RAIN/SNOW MIX WL OVRSPRD THE REGION.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF UL TROF THRU TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING TO RUN BLO NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH MIDDAY WITH A MID DECK AROUND 9KFT.  LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WINDS
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...WE HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
LOOKS TO PRODUCE THE BEST SHOT AT SCT. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. DURING THIS TIME BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS THEMSELVES.
THE DURATION OF MVFR WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AND WILL JUST COVER IT
WITH A TEMPO GROUP. EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...AS THE
MOISTURE DEEPENS MORE WIDESPREAD AND LONGER LASTING MVFR CIGS ARE
MORE LIKELY AND WILL PREVAIL THEM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SAME WIND DIRECTION BUT IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THUR THROUGH FRI...OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN/FLRYS THROUGHOUT
THIS PD...MAINLY FOR THE CNY TERMINALS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/PVN
AVIATION...HEDEN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 108 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 107 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BUMPED UP TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
GETTING MUCH WARMER THAN 45 TO 50 WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE NOW. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES LIKELY DUE TO THE BROWN
GROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WE`LL LOSE THIS WITH
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

A WEAK BACKDOOR WARM FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NEK.

FOR BTV RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AFTER 00Z.

IT SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY NICE SPRING DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE AT THIS
TIME WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH INITIALLY SO THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. EXPECTING 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING...AS MODELS
SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE AT 500 MB BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE THEREFORE HAVE
MENTIONED CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY ABOUT 00Z
MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES. LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...AND COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN
OVER TO SNOW...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
SHUNTED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL
TRAIL THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. LARGE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE...SLOWLY TRACKING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
VORT MAXES ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW/TROF...SO WILL PROBABLY SEE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH TRENDS BACK BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOLLOWING COLD
FROPA AND THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION OUT OF
CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SCT SKY COVER THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS 5KTS OR LESS. EXPECT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND 21Z AND HAVE MAINLY JUST MENTIONED
VCSH AT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WE WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME THE SHOWERS AND WHICH
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS AT ALL SITES. SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING AFTER ABOUT 06Z...THOUGH MAY LINGER LONGEST AT RUTLAND.
BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH GENERALLY
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AIR AND LESS NW FLOW INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

 226 PM MDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT WED MAR 27 2013

20Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S. THE NAM IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE RAP AND GFS ARE DRIER. NOT CONVINCED ANYTHING WILL
DEVELOP...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO LOWER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. A SMALL
AMOUNT OF CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE...THE HILLS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER RH PREDICTED...BUT WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON WHETHER TO ADD IT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT WED MAR 27 2013

RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LOW SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

BEYOND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH AN UPPER LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND A STRONGER UPPER LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED FURTHER IF TRENDS CONTINUE TOWARD COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT WED MAR 27 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...BARBER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 1234 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH AT MOST PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. EARLIER
FORECAST WAS PRETTY GOOD BUT HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE. ALSO WINDS NEED A LITTLE ADJUSTING TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY INSTEAD OF EAST SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SPRAWLS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK WAVE ARE PULLING AWAY...
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. HAVE NOT YET SEEN EARLIER
EXPECTATIONS OF WIDESPREAD FOG WITH A PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT MATERIALIZE WITH MOIST LAYER LIKELY JUST A BIT TOO SHALLOW
BASED ON RAP THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND GRADIENT JUST A BIT TOO
STOUT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...SO REMOVED FROM FORECAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...OUR LONG ADVERTISED WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY...AS BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ATTEMPT
TO OVERCOME LINGERING SNOWCOVER...GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 14...GREGORY COUNTY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHWEST
IOWA... ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
BIAS TO GREAT COVERAGE AND IMPACT...KEEPING SURFACE LAYER A BIT
TOO COOL OVERALL WITH EXCEPTION OF THE DEEPER AREAS. LIKELY TO
FIND A LITTLE PATCHY MID CLOUD DRIFTING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS
THROUGH MIDDAY...AND WILL ALSO FIND A LITTLE FOG AROUND AND FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WHERE FLOW IS BIT WEAKER THROUGH THE
NORTH/EAST CWA...AND WHERE TERRAIN CAN HELP FOCUS. STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORED TODAY.

AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF MELTING AND LIMITED MIXING...LOOKS TO MOISTEN
UP THE SUB INVERSION LAYER A BIT MORE.  WITH LATER NIGHT SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND VEERING PROFILE...PROSPECT FOR A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG EXISTS...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE
OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...MAY BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FOR A
COUPLE MORNINGS AFTER THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY PAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALOFT FOR SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...AND THUS AM NOT LOOKING
AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND WILL SEE READINGS CREEP
UPWARD BOTH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AT LOW LEVELS.

A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. A LITTLE RICHER MOISTURE FLOW ON SOUTHERLY FLOW PRIMES
THE PUMP AHEAD OF TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD SEE
INCREASE CHANCE LEVEL POPS AS FRIDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS ALOFT FAR TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID...
AND PROGGED SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD KEEP FROM ANY FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY YIELD A COUPLE OF SLIPPERY
SPOTS WHERE DAYTIME SOLAR POWER FAILS TO REACH. DID TOSS IN
ISOLATED THUNDER TO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FIT SATURDAY
PERIOD... AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE ON SPEEDING UP THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH...MAY BE ABLE TO KNOCK BACK AFTERNOON CHANCE EVEN MORE.
THIS WILL SAY A LOT ABOUT TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDING BACK A BIT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND EAST.

WARMUP HAS AN UNFORTUNATE END WITH VERY STRONG WAVE DIGGING
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AND SHOVING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD SURROUNDING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GFS/CANADIAN AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12 HOURS
QUICKER. HUGE POTENTIAL DIFFERENCES RESULT FROM FRONTAL TIMING...
WITH ECMWF INDICATING A WINDOW FOR MIXING TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL BACK...BUT GFS/CANADIAN VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF THAT...AND LIKELY AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER.
SOMEWHAT MORE ECMWF INFLUENCE IN FORECAST...BUT WEIGHTED IT WITH
MORE IMPACT SOUTH THAN NORTH.

LIKELY THAT WILL GET A FAIRLY LARGE EXPANSE OF LOWER CLOUDINESS
SWEEPING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO DENDRITIC IN CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING
FLURRIES ONCE AGAIN AT TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD...NO APRIL FOOLS.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE VERY
COLD THEME...AS SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY 3-5SM AND ISOLATED 1-3SM IN FOG 28/08Z-16Z.
CLOUDS ABOVE 8K FEET AGL WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 28/09Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...25
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...25







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 402 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EXPECTING TWO SHORT WAVES TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE SHOWERS. THE FIRST
WAS CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. COVERAGE ON RADAR HAD BEEN INCREASING AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHED. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE NEXT FEATURE MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE THIS SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY MORNING.

850 MB WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 35 KNOT RANGE
FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAP GUIDANCE AND LOCAL WRF BOTH INDICATED
SOME BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...OTHERWISE PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LIMIT COVER COVER AND SHOWERS EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN COLD ENOUGH AND LAPSE RATES
DURING THE DAY ARE LARGE ENOUGH THAT MORE SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS
WILL FORM AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN A PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH BE PROGRESSIVELY
FARTHER NORTH OF THE REGION. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
BROADENING...AND THEREFORE...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL
BE LESS. WHILE WE WILL STILL BE FORECASTING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE IMPACT WILL BE
ALSO BE DECREASING IN TIME. THE ONE CLINKER IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z/8AM GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROGRESSING
THROUGH KY/TN AND INTO SW VA/NW NC. WHILE IT HAS BEEN WEAK...IT HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. OUR CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS FEATURE REFLECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO A MINIMAL DEGREE. WE WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE
POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WHILE STILL MAINTAINING RELATIVELY LOW CHANCES.

BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WHAT
HAS BEEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW COMES TO AN END AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE
PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL BE
BE BRIEF AS IT DEVELOPS AS A RESULT OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE A NEW SOURCE OF MOISTURE...THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE WILL
EXPERIENCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING.
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROGRESS
NORTH...AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ON SUNDAY...THE TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MILDER. LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH HIGHER RIDGE TOPS OF SE WV IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ON
SUNDAY...LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION...AND THEN COLDER AIR STARTS TO RETURN. BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN GREENBRIER CO WV.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION REMAINS WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT US BACK IN AN UPSLOPE
PATTERN WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE WV. THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING TUESDAY MAY BE A DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS A WIDER
SWATH OF THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. ITS
SOLUTION BRINGS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND THEN NORTH ALONG THE COAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WOULD
HAVE CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. OUR FORECAST WILL OFFER SOME
CREDENCE TO THIS POTENTIAL...BUT ONLY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CAUSING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS. WHEN THE SUN DIPS BELOW THE HORIZON THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE REDUCED TO CLEAR SKY IN AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.  AFTER SUNRISE THE WINDS PICK BACK UP WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS. THE SKY REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE PIEDMONT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREAS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. BUFKIT SUGGESTED A MORE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BUT
STILL MVFR CEILINGS AT BLF. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AT
LWB/ROA AND BCB EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR.

BY FRIDAY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODES AND PUTS AN END TO THE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND CLEARS OUT THE LOW
LEVEL CU. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OR WORSE MAY
DEVELOP. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION..RETURNING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 525 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CENTRAL
CANADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LINGERING CLOUD COVER AT THE BASE OF
THE INVERSION REMAINS ARCED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO WESTERN
ONTARIO...BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING UP.  SKIES BECOME CLEAR ON
EITHER SIDE OF THIS ARCING CLOUD BAND WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S.  CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.  OVERCAST 5-6KFT
CLOUD DECK HAS BECOME THINNER BASED OFF OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...AND
STARTED TO BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE MORNING.  BUT STILL NOT AN EASY
CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT.  BASED ON THE RATE OF CLEARING SO FAR
TODAY...WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY COVER THIS EVENING...AND SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARRIVING BY MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA.  FORECASTED LOWS ARE DEPENDENT UPON CLEARING AGAIN SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ONCE AGAIN.  WILL GO WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S
EXCEPT A FEW COLD SPOTS MAY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO
ANOTHER QUIET DAY.  A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE
DAY...WILL SEE DIURNAL CU BUILD BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC CONTS TO GIVE THE MDLS FITS AS TO
WHAT THE FLOW WL DO DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS. LATEST TREND IS TO
BRING A NRN BRANCH SYSTEM THRU THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN
SWING A POLAR VORTEX SOUTH/THEN EAST ACROS SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TREND WOULD BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NE WI
DURING THE WEEKEND/MON...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER.
TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND
AND THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RDG OF HI PRES TO EXTEND FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY SEWD THRU WI TO
THE TN VALLEY REGION THU NGT. ANY DAYTIME CU FIELD WL DISSIPATE UPON
SUNSET LEAVING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NE
WI. THIS SYNOPTIC SET-UP COULD BRING SOME LATE NIGHT FOG INTO THE
AREA AS MELTING SNOW ADDS MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. MIN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPR TEENS NORTH...MID 20S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS SFC RDG AXIS SLIDES ACROSS WI FRI MORNING AND BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT W-NW WINDS WL BACK W-SW WITH WEAK WAA
BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID TO UPR
40S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG LAKE MI WHERE
AN ONSHORE WIND MAY KEEP READINGS IN THE LWR 40S.

AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM (IN THE FORM OF A CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE
TROF) DROPS SE THRU THE NRN PLAINS AND REACHES THE UPR MIDWEST BY
DAYBREAK...SW WINDS WL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE TOWARD WI WHICH WL
GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS WI. MAY NEED TO RAISE TEMPS OVER
CNTRL WI WHERE THE CLOUDS TO REACH FIRST BY A FEW DEGS (UPR 20S TO
AROUND 30) WHILE KEEPING ERN WI SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FCST (UPR
20S).

MDLS CONT TO SHOW THE APPROACH OF A SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORWAVE
TROF TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SAT. SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WL BRING AN INCREASE IN BOTH MOISTURE AND ISEN LIFT
TO WI AND EXPECT TO SEE PCPN CHCS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...
ESPECIALLY AS BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/FORCING ARRIVE. THERE
COULD BE A LINGERING PCPN TYPE ISSUE OVER CNTRL WI EARLY SAT
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW 32 DEGS AND A SMALL LAYER OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. MAY NEED TO MENTION A LITTLE
SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE THE PCPN TRANSITIONS TO EITHER ALL RAIN OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY MID-MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...TEMPS TO HAVE
WARMED ENUF TO CARRY HI CHC POPS OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.

CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF PUSH THRU WI MAINLY SAT EVENING (PERHAPS
AROUND MIDNGT OVER THE EAST)...THUS WL CONT THE NEED FOR POPS IN
THE FCST. PCPN TYPE TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
COOLER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE CDFNT. HAVE ATTEMPTED
TO SHOW THIS GRADUAL TRANSITION IN THE GRIDS WITH N-CNTRL WI ALL
SNOW BY MIDNGT AND RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNGT
E-CNTRL WI. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION SAT NGT
AS BETTER MOISTURE TO ALREADY HAVE BEEN SHUNTED EAST BY THE TIME
THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES. MDL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE
GFS DRIVES A SECONDARY CDFNT THRU WI...WHILE THE REST OF THE MDLS
HOLD THIS SECOND FNT BACK OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IF
THE LATTER SOLUTION IS CORRECT...PCPN CHCS MAY BE LIMITED TO NRN
WI CLOSER TO THE FNT AND A SHORTWAVE ROTATING SEWD TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. WOULD STILL EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN THIS
COLD...CYCLONIC PATTERN LEFT OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

THIS SECOND CDFNT TO DROP SOUTH INTO CNTRL SECTIONS OF WI SUNDAY
NGT AND SHOVE OUT OF WI ALTOGETHER ON MON. SOME SNOW SHWRS MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS FROPA...BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY
WOULD BE LAKE EFFECT OVER N-CNTRL WI AS 8H TEMPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
DROP TO AROUND -17C BY 12Z MON...DELTA-T`S CLIMB INTO THE UPR TEENS
AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS. THE
ONLY THING LACKING IS FAVORABLE TRAJS AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE W-NW.
NEVERTHELESS...WL CARRY A MEDIUM CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY SUNDAY NGT
INTO MON WITH LESSER POPS FARTHER SOUTH AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTS THRU MON.

THE LAKE EFFECT FOR N-CNTRL WI COULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE
A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD EWD AND
SENDS ENUF DRY AIR TOWARD WI TO END THE LAKE EFFECT. THE REST OF NE
WI WL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ALBEIT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THIS HI PRES THEN OVERSPREADS THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY NEXT
WED WHICH WL BRING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
UPR 30S TO LWR 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FEW LINGERING CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...WITH SOME DIURNAL
CU EXPECTED AGAIN ON THU. MOISTURE WITH MELTING SNOW MAY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH EXPECTED LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IN RHI TAF ATTM...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ADD ANYWHERE ELSE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL MELTING
OF THE SNOWPACK. RAIN OR MIXED PCPN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT
PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...THE
EXPECTED RUNOFF SHOULD ONLY CAUSE A GRADUAL RISE IN THE RIVERS
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......MPC









FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CENTRAL
CANADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LINGERING CLOUD COVER AT THE BASE OF
THE INVERSION REMAINS ARCED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO WESTERN
ONTARIO...BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING UP.  SKIES BECOME CLEAR ON
EITHER SIDE OF THIS ARCING CLOUD BAND WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S.  CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.  OVERCAST 5-6KFT
CLOUD DECK HAS BECOME THINNER BASED OFF OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...AND
STARTED TO BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE MORNING.  BUT STILL NOT AN EASY
CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT.  BASED ON THE RATE OF CLEARING SO FAR
TODAY...WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY COVER THIS EVENING...AND SHOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARRIVING BY MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA.  FORECASTED LOWS ARE DEPENDENT UPON CLEARING AGAIN SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ONCE AGAIN.  WILL GO WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S
EXCEPT A FEW COLD SPOTS MAY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO
ANOTHER QUIET DAY.  A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE
DAY...WILL SEE DIURNAL CU BUILD BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC CONTS TO GIVE THE MDLS FITS AS TO
WHAT THE FLOW WL DO DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS. LATEST TREND IS TO
BRING A NRN BRANCH SYSTEM THRU THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN
SWING A POLAR VORTEX SOUTH/THEN EAST ACROS SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TREND WOULD BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NE WI
DURING THE WEEKEND/MON...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER.
TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND
AND THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

RDG OF HI PRES TO EXTEND FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY SEWD THRU WI TO
THE TN VALLEY REGION THU NGT. ANY DAYTIME CU FIELD WL DISSIPATE UPON
SUNSET LEAVING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NE
WI. THIS SYNOPTIC SET-UP COULD BRING SOME LATE NIGHT FOG INTO THE
AREA AS MELTING SNOW ADDS MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. MIN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPR TEENS NORTH...MID 20S E-CNTRL WI.

THIS SFC RDG AXIS SLIDES ACROSS WI FRI MORNING AND BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT W-NW WINDS WL BACK W-SW WITH WEAK WAA
BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID TO UPR
40S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG LAKE MI WHERE
AN ONSHORE WIND MAY KEEP READINGS IN THE LWR 40S.

AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM (IN THE FORM OF A CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE
TROF) DROPS SE THRU THE NRN PLAINS AND REACHES THE UPR MIDWEST BY
DAYBREAK...SW WINDS WL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE TOWARD WI WHICH WL
GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS WI. MAY NEED TO RAISE TEMPS OVER
CNTRL WI WHERE THE CLOUDS TO REACH FIRST BY A FEW DEGS (UPR 20S TO
AROUND 30) WHILE KEEPING ERN WI SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FCST (UPR
20S).

MDLS CONT TO SHOW THE APPROACH OF A SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORWAVE
TROF TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SAT. SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WL BRING AN INCREASE IN BOTH MOISTURE AND ISEN LIFT
TO WI AND EXPECT TO SEE PCPN CHCS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...
ESPECIALLY AS BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/FORCING ARRIVE. THERE
COULD BE A LINGERING PCPN TYPE ISSUE OVER CNTRL WI EARLY SAT
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW 32 DEGS AND A SMALL LAYER OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. MAY NEED TO MENTION A LITTLE
SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE THE PCPN TRANSITIONS TO EITHER ALL RAIN OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY MID-MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...TEMPS TO HAVE
WARMED ENUF TO CARRY HI CHC POPS OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.

CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF PUSH THRU WI MAINLY SAT EVENING (PERHAPS
AROUND MIDNGT OVER THE EAST)...THUS WL CONT THE NEED FOR POPS IN
THE FCST. PCPN TYPE TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
COOLER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE CDFNT. HAVE ATTEMPTED
TO SHOW THIS GRADUAL TRANSITION IN THE GRIDS WITH N-CNTRL WI ALL
SNOW BY MIDNGT AND RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNGT
E-CNTRL WI. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION SAT NGT
AS BETTER MOISTURE TO ALREADY HAVE BEEN SHUNTED EAST BY THE TIME
THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES. MDL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE
GFS DRIVES A SECONDARY CDFNT THRU WI...WHILE THE REST OF THE MDLS
HOLD THIS SECOND FNT BACK OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IF
THE LATTER SOLUTION IS CORRECT...PCPN CHCS MAY BE LIMITED TO NRN
WI CLOSER TO THE FNT AND A SHORTWAVE ROTATING SEWD TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. WOULD STILL EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN THIS
COLD...CYCLONIC PATTERN LEFT OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

THIS SECOND CDFNT TO DROP SOUTH INTO CNTRL SECTIONS OF WI SUNDAY
NGT AND SHOVE OUT OF WI ALTOGETHER ON MON. SOME SNOW SHWRS MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS FROPA...BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY
WOULD BE LAKE EFFECT OVER N-CNTRL WI AS 8H TEMPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
DROP TO AROUND -17C BY 12Z MON...DELTA-T`S CLIMB INTO THE UPR TEENS
AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS. THE
ONLY THING LACKING IS FAVORABLE TRAJS AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE W-NW.
NEVERTHELESS...WL CARRY A MEDIUM CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY SUNDAY NGT
INTO MON WITH LESSER POPS FARTHER SOUTH AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTS THRU MON.

THE LAKE EFFECT FOR N-CNTRL WI COULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE
A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD EWD AND
SENDS ENUF DRY AIR TOWARD WI TO END THE LAKE EFFECT. THE REST OF NE
WI WL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ALBEIT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THIS HI PRES THEN OVERSPREADS THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY NEXT
WED WHICH WL BRING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
UPR 30S TO LWR 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
TAF PERIOD.  PESKY 5-6KFT CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.  DIURNAL CU TO
BUILD MIDDAY OVER NE WISCONSIN THEN DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013

EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL MELTING
OF THE SNOWPACK. RAIN OR MIXED PCPN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT
PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...THE
EXPECTED RUNOFF SHOULD ONLY CAUSE A GRADUAL RISE IN THE RIVERS
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......MPC