Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/12/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
SNOW NOW WINDING DOWN OVER SE CO. HEAVIER PRECIP NOW CONFINED S AND
E OF KLHX. ANOTHER SMALL BAND PERSISTENT OVER THE ERN WETS...WHICH
COULD END UP BOOSTING BEULAH`S SNOWFALL TO OVER A FOOT. HAVE LET
THE BZ WARNING AND OTHER MOUNTAIN HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 06Z...BALANCE
WILL EXPIRE AT 10Z TONIGHT. WILL BE A BRISK AND RAW MORNING ON
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. NEXT STORM WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL LATE IN THE WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 804 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS OVER NW AREAS OF THE CWA.
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM N TO S...STILL SOME HEAVY SNOW
SO F HGWY 50 OVR THE PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE SRN PLAINS ADVISORIES
OUT TIL 06-10Z. WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW FOR THE PALMER DVD WILL
ALLOW BZ WARNING TO CONTINUE THRU 06Z. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO BOOST POPS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH 06Z WITH ALL THE OTHER HEADLINES. DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
PALMER DIVIDE REALLY KILLING SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND
NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY. CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DOWN FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...BUT EASTERN PORTIONS
ARE STILL SEEING PERIODIC MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. OF
COURSE...CONDITIONS IN COLORADO SPRINGS LOOK MUCH BETTER...BUT
ITS HARD TO TAKE DOWN THE ADVISORY WITH ADVERSE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TO THE EAST OF ELLICOTT...SO WILL MAINTAIN FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. LATEST HRRR REALLY DIMINISHES PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY BY 03Z...SO WILL REVISIT HEADLINES AROUND THEN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 244 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE SNOW
ADVISORY. ACCUMS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH (2 - 4")...BUT THE
COMBO OF WINDS AND SNOW WILL MAKE FOR A HIGHER IMPACT EVENT. MOST
OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE ON GRASSY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
LEFT CURRENT HILITES AS ARE. GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION (N EL
PASO COUNTY). CDOT JUST CLOSED I-70 AND HIGHWAY 24 AROUND 145 PM.
LIKEWISE WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH 06Z. HEAVY SNOW THREAT HAS LESSENED BUT WIND IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND RECENT OBS SHOW THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY PICKING UP
ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS LATER THIS EVENING
WINDS WILL STILL STAY STRONG BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SNOW HAS DECREASED IN S EL PASO COUNTY IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS...BUT
FARTHER EAST SNOW STILL CONTINUES. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING THIS
REGION DUE TO THIS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE S PART OF THE
COUNTY.
OVERALL HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WET
MTNS AS OFF DUTY NWS MET REPORTING 8 INCHES AND IT IS STILL SNOWING
HEAVILY IN RYE...AND THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE RATON
MESA...(KIM REGION)...THESE FOLKS MAY COME IN WITH SOME DECENT SNOW
AMOUNTS AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS EVENT.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE EVENING...06Z-ISH
AND MOVE OUT OF THE ENTIRE STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FAR E PLAINS
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT BUT COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIF ACCUMS TO GRASSY AREAS.
FEW CG STRIKES NOTED ACROSS FAR SE CO AND ADDED THUNDER TO FCST.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY REGION-WIDE WITH COOL TEMPS AND
WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 50S...WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW USUALLY PRODUCES
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM NICELY AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO. HIGHS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
GUSTY N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS RELAX SUN AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AT KALS SUN MORNING. PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD
RESULT IN SOME SHALLOW VALLEY FG EARLY SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO PU IN TAFS SINCE FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE
POTENTIAL...AND NW WINDS ALOFT MAY INHIBIT FG/BR. EXPECT ANY
FG OR LOW CIGS TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND/OR LOCALIZED. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ094>096-098-
099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1030 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED OVER THE PLAINS HOWEVER
WINDS CONTINUE GUSTY ESP FM ERN ELBERT INTO NRN LINCOLN COUNTIES.
AFTER TALKING TO GLD WILL REPLACE BLIZARD WARNING WITH A BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZN 46 FM 06Z-10Z. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
REDEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BASED ON CURRENT RAP HOWEVER WILL JUST
KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MOISTURE IS MOVING SOUTH FM SERN WY HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN AND KEEP IT EAST OF DIA THRU 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...SNOW HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE ERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS WELL. WILL
STILL SEE AREAS OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS MAINLY SE OF A JULESBURG TO AKRON TO KIOWA LINE. LOOKS
LIKE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM MST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.
AVIATION...SNOW THREAT HAS ENDED HOWEVER GUSTY NORTH WINDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING BY 10 PM. CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 8000-10000 FT RANGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING SNOW COMING TO AN END
OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AND FAR NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS DRYING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WILL LET THE CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORY CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW
MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING WHERE THE INTENSITY IS LIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE SNOW IS REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE EVEN IN LIGHT SNOW.
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW OVER LINCOLN AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
UNDER THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH IS PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. DID RECEIVE A
REPORT OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY OF 100 YARDS
NEAR LIMON.
STILL ON TRACK FOR SNOW TO END THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. COULD LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF EXTRA HOURS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.
FOR SUNDAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE WHERE SNOW DID NOT ACCUMULATE. IT WILL
STILL BE COOL AS NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...MEAN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY MONDAY PLACING COLORADO UNDER MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS..THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. MODELS THEN SHOW A
WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OUT WEST ON MONDAY. THIS ELONGATED DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
MANAGE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS
DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH DAYTIME READINGS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. DO
NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY MORE SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY AFTER
TUESDAY.
AVIATION...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AND THEN
DECREASE AND COME TO END BY AROUND 03Z AT KDEN. ENDING TIMES AT KBJC
AND KAPA WILL BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN KDEN. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z AT KDEN. LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY AT KDEN AND EASTWARD. ONCE
THE WINDS DECREASE...THEY WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHERLY AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ041-045-046-
048>051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ047.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1006 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS OVER NW AREAS OF THE CWA.
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM N TO S...STILL SOME HEAVY SNOW
SO F HGWY 50 OVR THE PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE SRN PLAINS ADVISORIES
OUT TIL 06-10Z. WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW FOR THE PALMER DVD WILL
ALLOW BZ WARNING TO CONTINUE THRU 06Z. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO BOOST POPS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH 06Z WITH ALL THE OTHER HEADLINES. DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
PALMER DIVIDE REALLY KILLING SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND
NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY. CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DOWN FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...BUT EASTERN PORTIONS
ARE STILL SEEING PERIODIC MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. OF
COURSE...CONDITIONS IN COLORADO SPRINGS LOOK MUCH BETTER...BUT
ITS HARD TO TAKE DOWN THE ADVISORY WITH ADVERSE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TO THE EAST OF ELLICOTT...SO WILL MAINTAIN FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. LATEST HRRR REALLY DIMINISHES PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY BY 03Z...SO WILL REVISIT HEADLINES AROUND THEN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 244 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE SNOW
ADVISORY. ACCUMS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH (2 - 4")...BUT THE
COMBO OF WINDS AND SNOW WILL MAKE FOR A HIGHER IMPACT EVENT. MOST
OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE ON GRASSY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
LEFT CURRENT HILITES AS ARE. GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION (N EL
PASO COUNTY). CDOT JUST CLOSED I-70 AND HIGHWAY 24 AROUND 145 PM.
LIKEWISE WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH 06Z. HEAVY SNOW THREAT HAS LESSENED BUT WIND IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND RECENT OBS SHOW THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY PICKING UP
ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS LATER THIS EVENING
WINDS WILL STILL STAY STRONG BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SNOW HAS DECREASED IN S EL PASO COUNTY IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS...BUT
FARTHER EAST SNOW STILL CONTINUES. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING THIS
REGION DUE TO THIS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE S PART OF THE
COUNTY.
OVERALL HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WET
MTNS AS OFF DUTY NWS MET REPORTING 8 INCHES AND IT IS STILL SNOWING
HEAVILY IN RYE...AND THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE RATON
MESA...(KIM REGION)...THESE FOLKS MAY COME IN WITH SOME DECENT SNOW
AMOUNTS AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS EVENT.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE EVENING...06Z-ISH
AND MOVE OUT OF THE ENTIRE STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FAR E PLAINS
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT BUT COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIF ACCUMS TO GRASSY AREAS.
FEW CG STRIKES NOTED ACROSS FAR SE CO AND ADDED THUNDER TO FCST.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY REGION-WIDE WITH COOL TEMPS AND
WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 50S...WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW USUALLY PRODUCES
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM NICELY AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO. HIGHS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
GUSTY N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS RELAX SUN AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AT KALS SUN MORNING. PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD
RESULT IN SOME SHALLOW VALLEY FG EARLY SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO PU IN TAFS SINCE FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE
POTENTIAL...AND NW WINDS ALOFT MAY INHIBIT FG/BR. EXPECT ANY
FG OR LOW CIGS TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND/OR LOCALIZED. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-
074-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ094>096-098-
099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073-075-
079-080.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1011 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER IN THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT FORECASTS SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. TIDE LEVEL PEAKED AT
6.99 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR OR 0.01 FT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED AT BOTH THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND
BEAUFORT SO HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY A LITTLE
EARLY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FRONT WILL STEADILY MARCH EAST AND POSITIONED BE VERY NEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH BLENDED AMSU/SSMI DATA PINGING PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THESE VALUES
WILL ADVECT EAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY MIDNIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING STRENGTHENS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST-EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL INCREASE POPS
TO 100 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS LIKELY FALLING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE...POSSIBLY A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION H3R AND RAP RUNS TO CONSTRUCT
HOURLY WEATHER PARAMETERS THROUGH 6 AM. AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF
0.25-0.75 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES LIKELY.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ATYPICAL WITH THE AREA HOLDING
WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO
THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LATEST 12Z NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS...YET EVEN THE SLOWEST SCENARIOS HAVE THE FRONT
OFFSHORE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AT DAYBREAK...WITH POPS 50 PERCENT AND LOWER JUST TO
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AND HAVE INDICATED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES REMAINING FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY...PEAKING FROM 70 TO 72 DEGREES...A COMBINED RESULT OF
DELAYED COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE WARMING EFFECTS OF
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REFLECT THE COOLING TREND...FALLING MORE THAN
10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...INTO THE 40 DEGREE
RANGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS CENTRAL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL INITIATE ACCORDINGLY...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AS DECENT
DIURNAL MIXING TAPS INTO 30 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EFFECTS DIMINISHING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CONSIDERING SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
STILL SHOWING A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS COMING MORE INTO LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHILE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL THEN INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
OCCURRING WITH MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TIMING AND
DURATION REMAIN TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME WEST ONCE FROPA OCCURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LATEST SWAN AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST 6 FT SEAS WILL AFFECT
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA GIVEN
THIS LATEST MODEL TREND.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE/BUILD OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
LOW LVL WINDS ENHANCE OVER THE WATERS AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST LATE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
AND 5-8 FT 20-60 NM OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA NO LATER THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHILE SEAS MAINTAIN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY
DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE MAIN SURGE EXPECTED MORE
TOWARD WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPEST MIXING WILL BE ACROSS THE WARMER
OFFSHORE WATERS...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST. THUS THE
OUTER GEORGIA MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDER A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS COULD NECESSITATE ADVISORIES FOR
THOSE AREAS AS WELL. MUCH WEAKER FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
ST/BDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
936 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER IN THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT FORECASTS SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FRONT WILL STEADILY MARCH EAST AND POSITIONED BE VERY NEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH BLENDED AMSU/SSMI DATA PINGING PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THESE VALUES
WILL ADVECT EAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY MIDNIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING STRENGTHENS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST-EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL INCREASE POPS
TO 100 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS LIKELY FALLING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE...POSSIBLY A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION H3R AND RAP RUNS TO CONSTRUCT
HOURLY WEATHER PARAMETERS THROUGH 6 AM. AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF
0.25-0.75 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES LIKELY.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ATYPICAL WITH THE AREA HOLDING
WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO
THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LATEST 12Z NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS...YET EVEN THE SLOWEST SCENARIOS HAVE THE FRONT
OFFSHORE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AT DAYBREAK...WITH POPS 50 PERCENT AND LOWER JUST TO
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AND HAVE INDICATED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES REMAINING FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY...PEAKING FROM 70 TO 72 DEGREES...A COMBINED RESULT OF
DELAYED COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE WARMING EFFECTS OF
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REFLECT THE COOLING TREND...FALLING MORE THAN
10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...INTO THE 40 DEGREE
RANGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS CENTRAL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL INITIATE ACCORDINGLY...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AS DECENT
DIURNAL MIXING TAPS INTO 30 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EFFECTS DIMINISHING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CONSIDERING SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
STILL SHOWING A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS COMING MORE INTO LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHILE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL THEN INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
OCCURRING WITH MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TIMING AND
DURATION REMAIN TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME WEST ONCE FROPA OCCURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LATEST SWAN AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST 6 FT SEAS WILL AFFECT
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA GIVEN
THIS LATEST MODEL TREND.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE/BUILD OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
LOW LVL WINDS ENHANCE OVER THE WATERS AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST LATE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
AND 5-8 FT 20-60 NM OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA NO LATER THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHILE SEAS MAINTAIN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY
DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE MAIN SURGE EXPECTED MORE
TOWARD WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPEST MIXING WILL BE ACROSS THE WARMER
OFFSHORE WATERS...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST. THUS THE
OUTER GEORGIA MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDER A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS COULD NECESSITATE ADVISORIES FOR
THOSE AREAS AS WELL. MUCH WEAKER FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDE LEVEL IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR APPEARED TO HAVE PEAK AT
6.99 FT MLLW OR 0.01 FT BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
OF 12/0118Z. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER 30-45 MIN OR SO
TO SEE IF A LAST MINUTE SURGE OCCURS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST/BDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
717 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING ALONG
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER IN THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FRONT WILL STEADILY MARCH EAST AND POSITIONED BE VERY NEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH BLENDED AMSU/SSMI DATA PINGING PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THESE VALUES
WILL ADVECT EAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY MIDNIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING STRENGTHENS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST-EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL INCREASE POPS
TO 100 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS LIKELY FALLING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE...POSSIBLY A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION H3R AND RAP RUNS TO CONSTRUCT
HOURLY WEATHER PARAMETERS THROUGH 6 AM. AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF
0.25-0.75 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES LIKELY.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ATYPICAL WITH THE AREA HOLDING
WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO
THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LATEST 12Z NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS...YET EVEN THE SLOWEST SCENARIOS HAVE THE FRONT
OFFSHORE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AT DAYBREAK...WITH POPS 50 PERCENT AND LOWER JUST TO
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AND HAVE INDICATED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES REMAINING FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY...PEAKING FROM 70 TO 72 DEGREES...A COMBINED RESULT OF
DELAYED COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE WARMING EFFECTS OF
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REFLECT THE COOLING TREND...FALLING MORE THAN
10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...INTO THE 40 DEGREE
RANGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS CENTRAL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL INITIATE ACCORDINGLY...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AS DECENT
DIURNAL MIXING TAPS INTO 30 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EFFECTS DIMINISHING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CONSIDERING SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
STILL SHOWING A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS COMING MORE INTO LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHILE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL THEN INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
OCCURRING WITH MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TIMING AND
DURATION REMAIN TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME WEST ONCE FROPA OCCURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LATEST SWAN AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST 6 FT SEAS WILL AFFECT
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA GIVEN
THIS LATEST MODEL TREND.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE/BUILD OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
LOW LVL WINDS ENHANCE OVER THE WATERS AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST LATE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
AND 5-8 FT 20-60 NM OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA NO LATER THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHILE SEAS MAINTAIN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY
DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE MAIN SURGE EXPECTED MORE
TOWARD WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPEST MIXING WILL BE ACROSS THE WARMER
OFFSHORE WATERS...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST. THUS THE
OUTER GEORGIA MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDER A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS COULD NECESSITATE ADVISORIES FOR
THOSE AREAS AS WELL. MUCH WEAKER FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR EARLY THIS EVENING. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS WILL
PEAK VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. THE
SITUATION LOOKS MARGINAL...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF TIDAL LOADING
THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HIGH TIDES...WILL HOIST A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES...EXCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY...FROM 8 PM UNTIL 11 PM.
HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AT 844 PM AND IN THE
BEAUFORT RIVER AT BEAUFORT AT 959 PM.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST/BDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE NW FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS PLAINS WITH TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE BUILDING ALONG
WEST COAST. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW HAVE LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS ADVERTISED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA...WITH MOISTURE PROFILES SATURATING LATER THIS
EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL OVERLAP IN TIMING OF QPF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP STARTING AS
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
PRECIP I INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS STILL WEAK
INSTABILITY ADVERTISED WITH SNOW BAND...AND WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND SHORTWAVE WE COULD SEE NARROW BANDING. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT...AND WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE
FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM I AM ONLY ANTICIPATING AROUND ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL AT THE MOST. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. AIR MASS
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...THOUGH IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. WE COULD SEE IMPACT FROM SKY COVER...BUT FOR NOW I KEPT
FORECAST SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO
LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE WEST COAST
TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGIN TO RIDE UP OVER THE APEX OF THE
RIDGE. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AREA.
EARLY SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHING INITIALLY INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NO LONGER COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH EACH OTHER AT THIS POINT...BUT CONTINUE TO OFFER SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKING EAST OF THE ROCKIES SOMETIME IN THE
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE DAY ON MONDAY...DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL SOLUTION THAT ENDS UP CLOSER TO REALITY. HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED SOLUTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE LINES UP WELL WITH CURRENT WEATHER AS DEPICTED ON RADAR
AND VERIFIED WITH SURFACE OBSERVING SITES. COULD SEE AN HOUR OR
TWO OF IFR CONDITIONS AT GLD...BUT HAVE STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN VFR/MVFR. CEILINGS WILL BE MORE OF A
CONCERN THAN VISIBILITY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR VIS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIODS OF SNOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING
THE EVENT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF AROUND 08Z AT GLD AND 10Z AT MCK GIVING WAY TO A BREEZY
CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS OR SO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SUN MAR 10 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BASE
OF TROUGH OVER BAJA PENINSULA. STACKED H7/H5 CLOSED LOW CENTER IS
CURRENTLY OVER NE KANSAS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN US INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW A STRONG AXIS OF SUBSIDENCE IN IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
MISSOURI.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM PULLS EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CWA. WE
ARE ALREADY SEEING WINDS DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AT OR ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON MIXING
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA. I DECIDED TO EXTEND ADVISORY
00Z...THOUGH WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY EARLY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT W/NW WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING EAST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SHIFT TO A NW WITH LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z TONIGHT. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EASTERN
LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE A FEW FLURRIES AS ENERGY ROTATES ON THE
BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW...HOWEVER BEYOND THIS THE FORECAST SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA FROM THE WEST
TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHAT IMPACT RECENT SNOW PACK WILL HAVE ON TEMPS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PAST EVENTS WARMING MUCH FASTER THAN
ORIGINALLY INDICATED. FOR NOW I THINK OUR LOWS SHOULD COOL TO LOW
TO MID TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE WARMING AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS
ON MON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F UNDER IDEAL
MIXING. TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW I KEPT HIGH FORECAST MON ABOUT 5-10F
COOLER RANGING FROM UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTH
WHERE LESS SNOW FELL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SUN MAR 10 2013
LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING NEXT
WEEKEND.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CARRY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS MID AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WINDS MAY ALSO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WEAK WAVE
HELPS MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSTIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST
AND ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
THE FLOW FLATTENS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN
THER INDIVIDUAL HANDLING OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES AND THE LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
DEPENDING UPON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION COULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...OR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SUN MAR 10 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KMCK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND BACK SIDE OF
EXITING UPPER LOW. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
BY 21-22Z AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN...WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW
12KT AROUND SUNSET. STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT
KGLD WHERE GUSTS TO 39KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 12KT OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE
AT KGLD MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-
004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
EAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW BANDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE SO FAR AS OF 2 AM.
WINDS HAD NOT REACHED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA YET BUT PEAK WIND
GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 49 KTS EARLIER AT SYRACUSE AND GOODLAND.
WINDS UPSTREAM DROPPED OFF A LITTLE IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH WIND
WARNING ISSUANCE BUT MAY PICK BACK UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM HAYS TO DIGHTON AND SCOTT
CITY. THE RAP STILL SHOWS 850MB WINDS AROUND 60 KTS BETWEEN 09 AND
18Z, ESPECIALLY FROM A CORRIDOR FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED. CLEARING WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE FROM THE MORNING
LOWS AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS, BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUCH AS
LIBERAL AND ELKHART SHOULD SEE MORE SUN, AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIRMASS THERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SNOW COVERED AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE TEENS. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH 5 TO 8 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NONETHELESS, A
100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLOW INTO
THE BASE OF THIS WAVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SMALL SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT TO
SLIP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN KANSAS WHILE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ALONG
WITH DECENT SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW REMAINS.
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A BROAD RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE THE LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN VERY QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM MONDAY EVENING. WITH
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE 10C BY MID WEEK...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY, WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION, ALTHOUGH FLATTENING
SLIGHTLY. THE INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW WILL
KEEP A FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EXISTING THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SMALL BUT POTENT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, MUCH REMAINS TO
BE DETERMINED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE 00Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES REVEAL LITTLE WITH THIS WAVE BESIDES A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN CONTRAST, THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AND WILL OPT TOWARD A DRY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST
BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AS FOR WINDS, STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MISSOURI WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING DROPPING TO BELOW 15KT
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 17 57 30 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 34 14 57 30 / 60 0 0 0
EHA 41 19 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 18 60 31 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 31 14 48 27 / 90 0 0 0
P28 35 21 52 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1013 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
EAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW BANDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE SO FAR AS OF 2 AM.
WINDS HAD NOT REACHED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA YET BUT PEAK WIND
GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 49 KTS EARLIER AT SYRACUSE AND GOODLAND.
WINDS UPSTREAM DROPPED OFF A LITTLE IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH WIND
WARNING ISSUANCE BUT MAY PICK BACK UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM HAYS TO DIGHTON AND SCOTT
CITY. THE RAP STILL SHOWS 850MB WINDS AROUND 60 KTS BETWEEN 09 AND
18Z, ESPECIALLY FROM A CORRIDOR FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED. CLEARING WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE FROM THE MORNING
LOWS AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS, BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUCH AS
LIBERAL AND ELKHART SHOULD SEE MORE SUN, AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIRMASS THERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SNOW COVERED AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE TEENS. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH 5 TO 8 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NONETHELESS, A
100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLOW INTO
THE BASE OF THIS WAVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SMALL SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT TO
SLIP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN KANSAS WHILE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ALONG
WITH DECENT SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW REMAINS.
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A BROAD RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE THE LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN VERY QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM MONDAY EVENING. WITH
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE 10C BY MID WEEK...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY, WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION, ALTHOUGH FLATTENING
SLIGHTLY. THE INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW WILL
KEEP A FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EXISTING THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SMALL BUT POTENT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, MUCH REMAINS TO
BE DETERMINED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE 00Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES REVEAL LITTLE WITH THIS WAVE BESIDES A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN CONTRAST, THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AND WILL OPT TOWARD A DRY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST
BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
VIGOROUS WINTER STORM AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING
TO AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
STRETCHING FROM HAYS BACK TO BOTH DODGE AND GARDEN CITY, TO PUSH
EAST OUT OF THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS
POINT ALTHOUGH IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER, WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY BUT THEN EASE QUICKLY BY
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 17 57 30 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 34 14 57 30 / 60 0 0 0
EHA 41 19 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 18 60 31 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 31 14 48 27 / 90 0 0 0
P28 35 21 52 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
648 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW BANDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE SO FAR AS OF 2 AM.
WINDS HAD NOT REACHED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA YET BUT PEAK WIND
GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 49 KTS EARLIER AT SYRACUSE AND GOODLAND.
WINDS UPSTREAM DROPPED OFF A LITTLE IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH WIND
WARNING ISSUANCE BUT MAY PICK BACK UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM HAYS TO DIGHTON AND SCOTT
CITY. THE RAP STILL SHOWS 850MB WINDS AROUND 60 KTS BETWEEN 09 AND
18Z, ESPECIALLY FROM A CORRIDOR FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED. CLEARING WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE FROM THE MORNING
LOWS AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS, BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUCH AS
LIBERAL AND ELKHART SHOULD SEE MORE SUN, AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIRMASS THERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SNOW COVERED AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE TEENS. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH 5 TO 8 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NONETHELESS, A
100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLOW INTO
THE BASE OF THIS WAVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SMALL SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT TO
SLIP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN KANSAS WHILE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ALONG
WITH DECENT SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW REMAINS.
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A BROAD RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE THE LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN VERY QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM MONDAY EVENING. WITH
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE 10C BY MID WEEK...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY, WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION, ALTHOUGH FLATTENING
SLIGHTLY. THE INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW WILL
KEEP A FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EXISTING THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SMALL BUT POTENT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, MUCH REMAINS TO
BE DETERMINED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE 00Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES REVEAL LITTLE WITH THIS WAVE BESIDES A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN CONTRAST, THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AND WILL OPT TOWARD A DRY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST
BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
VIGOROUS WINTER STORM AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING
TO AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
STRETCHING FROM HAYS BACK TO BOTH DODGE AND GARDEN CITY, TO PUSH
EAST OUT OF THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS
POINT ALTHOUGH IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER, WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY BUT THEN EASE QUICKLY BY
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 17 57 30 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 34 14 57 30 / 60 0 0 0
EHA 41 19 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 18 60 31 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 31 14 48 27 / 90 0 0 0
P28 35 21 52 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074-075-084.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>079.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ080-081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
416 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW BANDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE SO FAR AS OF 2 AM.
WINDS HAD NOT REACHED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA YET BUT PEAK WIND
GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 49 KTS EARLIER AT SYRACUSE AND GOODLAND.
WINDS UPSTREAM DROPPED OFF A LITTLE IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH WIND
WARNING ISSUANCE BUT MAY PICK BACK UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM HAYS TO DIGHTON AND SCOTT
CITY. THE RAP STILL SHOWS 850MB WINDS AROUND 60 KTS BETWEEN 09 AND
18Z, ESPECIALLY FROM A CORRIDOR FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED. CLEARING WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE FROM THE MORNING
LOWS AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS, BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUCH AS
LIBERAL AND ELKHART SHOULD SEE MORE SUN, AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIRMASS THERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SNOW COVERED AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE TEENS. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH 5 TO 8 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NONETHELESS, A
100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLOW INTO
THE BASE OF THIS WAVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SMALL SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT TO
SLIP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN KANSAS WHILE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ALONG
WITH DECENT SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW REMAINS.
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A BROAD RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE THE LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN VERY QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM MONDAY EVENING. WITH
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE 10C BY MID WEEK...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY, WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION, ALTHOUGH FLATTENING
SLIGHTLY. THE INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW WILL
KEEP A FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EXISTING THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
LIKELY THURDSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SMALL BUT POTENT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, MUCH REMAINS TO
BE DETERMINED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE 00Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES REVEAL LITTLE WITH THIS WAVE BESIDES A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN CONTRAST, THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AND WILL OPT TOWARD A DRY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST
BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN GARDEN CITY BY 07Z AND DODGE
CITY AND HAYS BY 08Z, ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS TO OVER 30
KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KTS. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR IN THE SNOW
WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AT TIMES WITH THE BLOWING SNOW. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY 12Z IN KGCK/KDDC AND 15Z AT KHYS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. HOWEVER, 30KT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 23Z, WITH A WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 17 57 30 / 50 0 0 0
GCK 34 14 57 30 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 41 19 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 18 60 31 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 31 14 48 27 / 80 0 0 0
P28 35 21 52 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074-075-084.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>079.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ080-081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW BANDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE SO FAR AS OF 2 AM.
WINDS HAD NOT REACHED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA YET BUT PEAK WIND
GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 49 KTS EARLIER AT SYRACUSE AND GOODLAND.
WINDS UPSTREAM DROPPED OFF A LITTLE IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH WIND
WARNING ISSUANCE BUT MAY PICK BACK UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM HAYS TO DIGHTON AND SCOTT
CITY. THE RAP STILL SHOWS 850MB WINDS AROUND 60 KTS BETWEEN 09 AND
18Z, ESPECIALLY FROM A CORRIDOR FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED. CLEARING WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE FROM THE MORNING
LOWS AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS, BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUCH AS
LIBERAL AND ELKHART SHOULD SEE MORE SUN, AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIRMASS THERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SNOW COVERED AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE TEENS. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH 5 TO 8 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FOUND ABOVE THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITIONS
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM SECTION WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN THE 50S
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW PLACES
ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES ARE FORECASTED MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN GARDEN CITY BY 07Z AND DODGE
CITY AND HAYS BY 08Z, ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS TO OVER 30
KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KTS. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR IN THE SNOW
WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AT TIMES WITH THE BLOWING SNOW. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY 12Z IN KGCK/KDDC AND 15Z AT KHYS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. HOWEVER, 30KT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 23Z, WITH A WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 17 57 30 / 50 0 0 0
GCK 34 14 57 30 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 41 19 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 18 60 31 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 31 14 48 27 / 80 0 0 0
P28 35 21 52 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074-075-084.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>079.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ080-081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1052 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE...MAINLY TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS. MODELS
HAVING A LITTLE DIFFICULTY GETTING THE RIGHT LOCATION OF 700 TO 500
MB LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH
AND A LITTLE EAST. HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR RETURNS
THE GFS AND RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION. WHAT IS
CONCERNING ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE RUC AND GFS BULLSEYE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. THE
OTHER MODEL OUTPUT EVEN THOUGH NOT QUITE RIGHT ON THE LOW LOCATION
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.
00Z SOUNDINGS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WOULD SUPPORT A VERY GOOD
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LIFT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A PERIOD OF UP TO
SIX HOURS OF RATHER INTENSE SNOWFALL. GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE REASONING
AND WHAT I AM SEEING ON RADAR...RAISED THE QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
PER A BLEND OF REALITY...RUC AND GFS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. SO NOW THERE IS WIDESPREAD 4 TO 7 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY NOT HAVE THE WINDS
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH. PROFILERS ARE SHOWING 50 KNOTS NOT TOO FAR
OFF THE SURFACE BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WHETHER THIS WORKS OUT OR NOT STILL LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. DID RAISE THE WINDS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING AND EXTENDED THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW A LITTLE
LONGER. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING A LITTLE LONGER. THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK
AT THAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH A CLOSED CENTER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. H7 TROUGH AXIS
ALONG KS/CO BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
DEFORMATION BAND JUST WEST OF H7 TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN EASTERN
COLORADO EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY SLOT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
EXTENT OF CWA.
AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF OUR CWA IN
RESPONSE TO VERY MOIST BL AND STRONG WAA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SURFACE TD HAVE ALREADY BEEN DECREASING AT NORTON AND HILL
CITY...SO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DECREASING FOR OUR
AREA. WE COULD STILL SEE A WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
OUR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST...SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH 00Z
FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF SNOW BAND TONIGHT
THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS THIS BAND MOVING EAST AND
PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 7 INCHES ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST...AND LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A
QUICK RAIN/SNOW CHANGE OVER IN THE WEST...WITH CHANGEOVER THIS
EVENING IN THE EAST WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN PLACE.
UPSTREAM OBS ALREADY SHOW LIGHT SNOW IN YUMA COUNTY...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST TIMING. THE DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
06Z AS LARGE SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO PULL EAST...AND DRY AIR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY INDICATE THAT THIS SNOW BAND WILL
HOLD TOGETHER IF NOT INTENSIFY AFTER 06Z WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS BY AS
MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST. WITH RUC/NAM/GFS ALL
SHOWING INSTABILITY WITHIN 700-500MB LAYER WITH THIS BAND...THERE
MAY BE A CONNECTIVE COMPONENT THAT COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN LINE WITH THESE HIGHER TOTALS...HOWEVER IT IS HARD TO
GAUGE WHERE THIS WILL SET UP AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. I ALSO
THINK THE WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE BANDING WILL BE DURING THE EVENING
RATHER THAN AFTER 06Z...SINCE MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING A
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AS DRY/STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW
BEHIND THIS BAND. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MELTING WHICH COULD EAT INTO OUR SNOW AMOUNTS EARLY ON...HOWEVER AS
SNOWFALL INTENSIFIES AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP WE SHOULD START
TO OVERCOME THIS.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING STRONG H85 JET DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM WOULD INDICATE A SMALLER WINDOW FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS UP NORTH...HOWEVER IT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT UP NORTH...AND GUSTS 40-50MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
I DECIDED AGAINST MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO FORECAST OR
BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO DETAILS AND
RAIN/SNOW TIMING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WE MAY NEED TO MAKE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS THIS BAND STARTS MOVING EAST AND WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON HOW QUICKLY IT WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE STORM THAT IS AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL
BE HEADING OUT OF THE PLAINS REGION AND WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
MORNING AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE THAT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK BECOMES A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE PLAINS
STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE RIDGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS OVER THE WEST COAST DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. BY NEXT SATURDAY...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION SEEMS TO STILL BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE WITH A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN UNDERWAY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
THAT TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME WIND EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE BENIGN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
SNOWFALL IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE NEAR KGLD AND JUST STARTING TO PICK
UP AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT KGLD AND WILL BE MOSTLY
DUE TO THE BLOWING SNOW. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE
TO MVFR AT KMCK UNTIL NEAR 12Z. AFTER THAT AT KMCK...THEN IFR CEILINGS
TO MVFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL NOT DECREASE
UNTIL LATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
ISSUED AT 816 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
ADJUSTED DEW POINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. USED RAP MODEL AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THOSE PARAMETERS. EVERYTHING ELSE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. RADAR PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS NEAR THE OWB AREA BUT
WITH 20+ DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES. LATEST NAM/WRF STILL SUPPORTS PREVIOUS TIMING OF MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE
PARENT UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENING A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE VERY WEAK
BUT K INDICES SHOW SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. BASED ON
SOUNDINGS...CRITICAL THICKNESSES ETC THERE COULD BE A
SPRINKLE/FLURRY MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS BEFORE ENDING
MONDAY MORNING. A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...THEN MODERATE
BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
IN GENERAL...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SHOW HEIGHT FALLS/TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN U.S....WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
COUNTRY`S MID SECTION. THE PAH FA WILL THEREFORE BE MAINLY EAST OF
THE RIDGING AND WEST OF THE NEAREST TROFFING...WITH MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW AND WESTERLIES TO NORTHWESTERLIES AS THE PREDOMINANT
UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES
EAST OF THE MS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD THE NET RESULT OF
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
THAT BY DAY 7-8 COULD YIELD A SMALL POP. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED...WE`RE INCLINED TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A FEW RUNS TO
SEE IF IT`S REAL VS SOME FEEDBACK IN THE HEIGHT FALL/RISE PATTERN
THAT WILL BE ADJUSTING IN A MINOR WAY THRU TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HESITATES IN ITS APPROACH TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SRLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...INCREASING IN VELOCITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY...GUSTING ABOVE 20 KTS EVERYWHERE.
TERMINALS IN THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION SUCH AS KCGI AND KPAH WILL
HAVE LOWERING CIGS THE EARLIEST...AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON THERE DUE TO WSPRD RAINFALL SURGING ACROSS
THE REGION. EVEN THE EASTERNMOST AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE RAINFALL IN
THE EVENING...THOUGH CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...PS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EST SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY THEN LIFT
NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS THROUGH
MAINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...THE STRATUS NOW EXTENDS FROM HOULTON TO BAR
HARBOR AND POINTS EAST. THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THE
STRATUS AREA FROM HOULTON SOUTH HAS BEEN MAKING MORE PROGRESS TO
THE WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS NORTHEAST
OF HOULTON IN NEW BRUNSWICK. EXPECT BY MORNING THAT MOST OF THE
AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM ALLAGASH-GREENVILLE WILL BE COVERED BY
STATUS WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY IN THE 1500-2000 FT AGL RANGE
(POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER AT KFVE). THE HRRR SHOWS THIS WELL ALTHOUGH
IT IS A BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS AS OF 05Z.
TEMPS IN THE STRATUS AREA HAVE LEVELED OFF AND IN SOME SPOTS EVEN
RISEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WILL RAISE THE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY COVERED BY OR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED BY THE STRATUS SHORTLY. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES FURTHER TO THE WEST WHERE IT IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT THAT IT
TURNS CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...OR IF IT DOES THERE ARE STILL A FEW TO
SEVERAL HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.
UPDATE 2115L: STRATUS LURKING JUST TO OUR E CONTS TO BUILD VRY
SLOWLY WWRD... IT HAS ENTERED OUR FAR SERN AREAS AND SHOULD MV
INTO ERN/NERN AREAS NXT SEVERAL HRS. TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK ATTM
BUT MAY NEED SOME MODIFICATION DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THE INCOMING STRATUS DECK. FOR NOW...CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE 1815L: MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TNGT WILL BE SKY AND TEMPS...
AREA OF STRATUS/SC LURKING JUST ACROSS THE BORDER ATTM AND SOME OF
THE NR TERM MODELS BRING THIS CLDNS WWRD INTO ERN AREAS LATER THIS
EVE THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY ERLY SUN AM.
HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE EXPECTED TRENDS. CLDS
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS AS WELL BUT FOR NOW TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. FOR WIND HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND
GMOS. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT INITIALIZED WITH GMOS. WILL ADJUST
MINIMUM A FEW DEGREES LOWER WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES
AND CANADA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC...A SECONDARY LOW
OVER IL...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING BETWEEN. ARE THE MAJOR
WEATHER FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE LOW OVER QUEBEC MOVES EAST TO
EASTERN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE AS AN INACTIVE
FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW OVER IL
WILL OCCLUDED AND MOVE NORTH INTO SWRN WS...THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS LA. BY MON EVNG THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SE. THE LOW OVER WS
BECOMES THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT DEEPENS SHIFTS NORTH TO NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST. THE GFS HAS IT INTO
NRN NH/WRN ME...THE ECMWF AND NAM INTO SRN QUEBEC. TUES MRNG THE
LOW MOVES NE INTO WRN QUEBEC...THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN
QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO VT/NH. SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS INDICATED VA BY ALL 3
MODELS...AS WELL AS OVR CNTRL PA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVES WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. THE PRIMARY
LOW MOVES INTO NRN QUEBEC EAST OF JAMES BAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN ME...A SECONDARY LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT MOVES
INTO SRN NH...AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP/WND GRIDS.
USED SAME BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS...NAM-BC FOR MINS. NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS
IN COASTAL WATERS. PLUS 25 PERCENT FOR WND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS...15 PERCENT OVER LAND.&&
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MILD STRETCH WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE
COOL DOWN IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE W/YET ANOTHER BLOCKING PATTERN
SETTING UP.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT W/THE PROSPECTS OF A 2ND AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON THE
FRONT. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS40 AND NOW THE ECMWF POINT TO
THIS SCENARIO W/AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON W/PRECIP ENDING BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE STICKING POINT ATTM IS WHETHER COLDER
AIR SITTING BACK TO THE W WILL BE PULLED BACK INTO THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS(5/12) POINT TO
THIS SETUP. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE 3/5/12Z-3/6/00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF POINTED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MAINE W/LLVLS COOLING DOWN TO ALLOW FOR SNOW. ATTM,
DECIDED TO PLAY IT IN THE MIDDLE AND USED THE ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOWED MORE LIQUID PRECIP INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND HENCE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COLD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND DECISION HERE WAS TO
STAY AWAY FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE ATTM. THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S WARMER
SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKED GOOD W/TEMPERATURES
STAYING IN THE 40S.
THIS STRETCH OF ABOVE MILD WEATHER AND ADDED RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR
A DECENT MELT OF THE SNOW PACK AND ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. THIS COULD
LEAD TO ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PISCATAQUIS,
PENOBSCOT AND THE MATTAWAMKEAG. SNOW PACK IN THESE WATERSHEDS IS
RIPE AND WILL NOT ABSORB MUCH WATER. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AROOSTOOK
AND ST. JOHN BASINS, SNOW PACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB SOME WATER
INITIALLY BUT THIS TOO WILL RIPEN ESPECIALLY LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT.
THE RULE OF THUMB IS FOR 3 OR MORE DAYS OF 40+F FOR ICE BREAKUP EVEN
W/OUT RAIN. THE EXPECTED RAIN FOR THIS TERM COULD ADD TO THIS POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL TURN BACK TO A MORE NORMAL OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY LATE WEEK. A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ALLOWING
FOR A CLOSED LOW TO HANG OUT IN QUEBEC W/A COLD NW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. LEANED CLOSER TO GMOS FOR DAYS 6-7 FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KHUL AND KBHB AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES BY 08-09Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z SUNDAY WITH VFR FOR
THE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT FVE. AN INACTIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FVE AREA LAST SUNDAY NIGHT DROPPING CEILINGS TO MVFR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CEILING AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MAINE. BHB...BGR...FVE WILL
BEGIN TO FALL TO IFR BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. CAR...HUL...AND PQI
BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR
WIND GRIDS AND TAKE 125 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED.
WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA SO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SCA FOR
SEAS. FOR WAVES: LONG PERIOD WAVES CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM LONG
FETCH NORTH OF ATLANTIC LOW. FETCH DIRECTION HAS SHIFTED TO
SOUTHWEST SO REMAINING WAVES ARRIVING LOCALLY GENERATED LAST NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. COMBINED WAVES COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST WAVE
SYSTEM (PERIOD RUNNING AROUND 14 SECONDS) AND NORTHEAST WIND WAVE
GROUP.
SHORT TERM:
AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDING INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/KHW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...CB/KHW
MARINE...CB/KHW/NORTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
621 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...WITH A RETURN TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE E COAST. MESO AND NR TERM MODEL DATA
INDICATE WARM AIR ADVCTN WL CONT TNGT...SO INCRD LO TEMPS TNGT DUE
TO THIS AND CLD CVR. A CDFNT WL BEGIN TO APRCH THE RGN FM THE W
ON MON WITH A BAND OF SHRA OUT AHD OF THE FNT. SHRA CHCS WL INCR
THRU THE DAY ESP W OF PIT. GUSTY S-SW WNDS ARE EXPD AS WELL. ABV
AVG HIGHS EXPD AGAIN MON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPTG SHRA WITH FROPA MON EVE/OVRNGT. COLD AIR ADVCTN WL BEGIN AFT
FROPA WITH LOW CHCS FOR PCPN. CRITICAL THICKNESSES/PROFILES
INDICATE SHRA MAY MIX WITH SHSN TUE. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPD TO DROP
BLO SEASONAL AVGS AGAIN TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW AND AN UPR LVL TROF WL BRING INCRG SHSN CHCS TO THE
RGN THRU WED. SFC HI PRES GRDLY BLDS IN THU AND THU NGT. A WK SFC
LOW IS EXPD TO QUICKLY TRACK SEWD ACRS THE OH VLY RGN FRI...WITH A
CHC FOR SHRA/SHSN MAINLY S OF PIT. A QUASI STNRY FNT IS EXPD TO
SET UP ACRS THE OH/TN VLY RGNS OVR THE WK END...CONTG THE CHC FOR
SHRA/SHSN MAINLY S OF PIT. TEMPS EXPD TO REMAIN BLO SEASONAL AVGS
THRU THE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WEA WL CONT THRU MONDAY...HOWEVER...LLWS WL BE A CONCERN LATE
TNGT AND EARLY MONDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES DVLPS TWD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. LATEST NAM AND RAP MDL SNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT
ENHANCEMENTMENT OF THE LLVL JET TO ADD A WIND SHEAR MENTION FOR THE
OVRNGT HRS IN ALL...BUT ERNMOST TAF SITES.
THIS STRONG WARM ADVCTN REGIME SHOULD CAP THE BNDRY LYR...AND THUS
LIMIT GUSTS ON MONDAY. 20 TO 25 KT SFC GUSTS WL SUFFICE FOR THE
CURRENT PROGNOSIS.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CDFNT EXTENDING FM THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES LOW IS
FORECAST FOR A MONDAY NGT CROSSING OF THE UPR OH VALLEY.
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH THAT PASSAGE...AND
IN THE COLD ADVCTN REGIME BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT PROJECTED FOR
TUESDAY.
HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO RTN GENL VFR TO REGIONAL PORTS FOR LTR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
740 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU WRN LWR MI IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE...AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY
COOLING CLOUD TOPS THRU NRN LWR MI AS DEEP LAYER FORCING
STRENGTHENS. AS A RESULT...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING PCPN ACROSS
NRN LWR MI. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE FAR ERN FCST
AREA FOR SEVERAL HRS THIS EVENING AS EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING PCPN
SHIELD LIFTS N. COLUMN SHOULD RAPIDLY COOL...GIVING A QUICK
TRANSITION FROM MOSTLY LIQUID TO SNOW AS PCPN ARRIVES. INCLUDED 1-2
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS LUCE COUNTY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO AN ADVY TYPE SNOW EVENT OVER THE FAR E
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF OVER
CENTRAL AND ERN NAMERICA. NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LO OVER THE LOWER
GRT LKS IS TENDING TO LIFT TO THE NE AS ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING THRU
SCENTRAL CANADA DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED TO NEAR MANISTIQUE AS OF MID AFTN. SFC
TEMPS AT ISQ/ERY HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPR 30S TO THE E OF THE SFC
LO...AND THERE IS SOME FOG HERE WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING OVER
LINGERING LLVL MSTR. THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPR LO HAS ENDED MOST OF THE PCPN EXCEPT OVER THE WRN COUNTIES...
WHICH LIE UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZN ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE H7 LO
TRACK. PERIODS OF SN HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT IN THESE AREAS
TDAY...WITH SN FALL RATES UP TO 0.5-0.75 INCH/HR. ALTHOUGH THE DRY
SLOT HAS SWEPT THRU THE CNTRL COUNTIES...SOME -SN CONTINUES OVER
MAINLY NCENTRAL MQT COUNTY WITH CYC UPSLOPE N WIND PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT LIFT. ANOTHER AREA OF -SHRASN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE UPR LO IS APRCHG THE SE
COUNTIES...BUT PRESENCE OF LARGER SCALE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITING THE COVERAGE TO SCT -SHRASN. TO THE W...12Z YPL/INL RAOBS
SHOW A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS PRESENT OVHD TO THE W OF THE
DEFORMATION ZN IN MN...AND THERE IS LTL PCPN FALLING THERE. ALTHOUGH
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE COMMA CLD APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...PCPN APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO AN AREA
NEAR LK WINNIPEG RIGHT UNDER THE COMMA HEAD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE SN TRENDS/GOING HEADLINES. FOCUS FOR TUE
SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL IMPACT OF SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW SFC LO LIFTING NEWD INTO SE ONTARIO TNGT...BUT
CLOSED LO/DEEPER MSTR TENDING TO LINGER OVER THE UPR LKS DESPITE
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC BY 06Z. AREA OF -SHRASN LIFTING NWD
THRU LK MI AHEAD OF THE UPR LO WL IMPACT THE ERN ZNS THIS EVNG WITH
AREAS OF FOG LINGERING THERE UNTIL SFC LO PASSES TO THE NE THIS EVNG
AND COLDER AIR ARRIVES. SUSPECT LINGERING DEFORMATION ZN PCPN OVER
THE WRN CWA WL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH ARRIVAL OF THE NEGATIVE
FORCING...SO ENDED THE GOING HEADLINES AS SCHEDULED 00Z TO 06Z FM SW
TO NE. DOWNGRADED THE WARNINGS FOR BARAGA/MQT COUNTIES VALID THRU 0Z
WITH BULK OF PCPN EXPECTED TO FALL FARTHER W ON CYC SIDE OF H7 LO
TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE STEADY SN WL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER THE
W...CYC NW FLOW OF AIR/ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED
TO SINK AS LO AS -14C TO -15C BY 12Z TUE WL CAUSE NMRS SHSN TO
PERSIST. BUT CONCERNED LO INVRN HGTS/DRY MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE
12Z INL/YPL RAOBS WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE SHSN...SO
WENT NO HIER THAN LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.
TUE...DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE CWA...SO MAINTAINED
GOING INCRSG POPS TO CATEGOCIAL NEAR LK SUP BY LATE AFTN WITH FAIRLY
SHARP CYC NW FLOW ACTING AS AN ENHANCEMENT FACTOR IN THE PRESENCE OF
DEEPER MSTR/H85 TEMPS NOT FAR FM -15C. SINCE FCST SDNGS SHOW THE DGZ
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET DEEP IN THE CONVECTIVE LYR...CONCERNED SOME
ADVY INTENSITY LES MIGHT OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE CWA AT 00Z WED AND A SFC TROUGH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -14 WITH CYCLONIC NW-NNW
LOW LEVEL WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LES TUE
NIGHT...WITH WARMING TEMPS VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING IN WITH A
SFC RIDGE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUICK
BURST OF MODERATE LES ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH THAT MAY
BRING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH THE RATE THAT THE VERY DRY AIR MOVES IN LATE TUE NIGHT...LES
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...AND SHOULD BE ALMOST COMPLETELY GONE BY 15Z
WED /IF NOT A BIT EARLIER/. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN AREA OF
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH
WED NIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E OF MARQUETTE AS CONDITIONS
WILL STILL ONLY BE MARGINAL FOR LES. ELSEWHERE WED NIGHT...CLEARING
OVER THE INTERIOR W SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO MOVE NEARBY THU/THU NIGHT...BUT
CONSENSUS OF MODELS PLACES BEST FORCING AND PRECIP N AND S OF THE
CWA...SO WILL KEEP ANY POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...BACKED UP BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120+KT
JET...MOVES THROUGH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. MODEL VARY WITH TIMING...BUT
GENERALLY AGREE ON OVERALL EXTENT/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS
PAINT A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF...AND THE BEST OMEGA
LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW AND INTO THE DGZ...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY GIVEN
VOLATILE NATURE OF SHORTWAVES THAT FAR OUT...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS AOB -14C AND N-NW FLOW
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WOULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LES INTO SAT /AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT TOO UNCERTAIN IN ANY DETAILS THAT FAR OUT TO
MENTION OR ADD TO THE FORECAST/.
HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON WED...WITH A WARM UP TO AROUND 30
ON THU AND INTO THE MID 30S ON FRI. TEMPS LOOK TO DECREASE GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD...INITIAL MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS COOLING AIRMASS/UPSLOPE
CYCLONIC FLOW AID -SHSN OFF THE LAKE. AT KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL TONIGHT AS NW FLOW WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPING
LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHSN LATE TUE
MORNING/AFTN. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL 3 SITES IN THE
AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING NNE WINDS TO BACK TO THE NW TNGT INTO TUE
AS SFC LO OVER ERN UPR MI THIS EVNG MOVES NEWD THRU ONTARIO TOWARD
JAMES BAY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING...THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR WL RESULT IN SOME FREEZING SPRAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
WINDS TO GUST NEAR 35KTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS RELAX WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ004-
005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
612 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2013
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST AS CLOUDS WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TIME. OFF AND ON FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH A
PREDOMINATE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT HYR AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. A GUSTY NW SFC WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z
AT ALL SITES BUT HYR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2013/
SHORT TERM...CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. ORGANIZED FORCING IN THE
FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS HAS KEPT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER ERN
EDGE OF REGION. ELSEWHERE...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING.
TONIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING MID LVL SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM SRN
MANITOBA TO JUST SOUTH OF THE BRD LAKES VICINITY. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SFC REFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER IN THE PRESSURE OR WIND FIELDS. USED A BLEND OF THE
SREF AND EC TO KEEP POPS FOCUSED IN TWO AREAS. FIRST...ACROSS THE
SRN TIER OF ZONES CLOSER TO TRACK OF UPPER FEATURE. SECOND...AS
COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...SOME INCREASE IN LES MAY
OCCUR OVER ERN WISC SNOWBELTS.
TOMORROW...UPPER LOW SCOOTS QUICKLY SE OF REGION BY MIDDAY WITH
DEEPENING OF NLY FLOW ACROSS CWA. MOST PROBABLE AREAS FOR PRECIP
WILL BE OVER ARROWHEAD AND WISC SNOWBELTS. A WRAPAROUND LOBE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL ROTATE WESTWARD INTO ARROWHEAD DURING THE DAY. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE EC AND THE SPC WRF/NMM. 85H THERMAL TROUGH
SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN SFC/85H LAYER COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
INTO SNOWBELTS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY FOR LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGERING TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY
THE SNOWBELT REGION OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -14C TO -16C. WE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FROM 00Z WED TO ABOUT 09Z WED. INVERSION LEVELS DROP
LATE AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BACK WEDNESDAY. AN ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES.
A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES WILL ONLY BRING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WAA
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIP LOOKS RATHER LIGHT...AND PRECIP
TYPE COULD BE IN QUESTION. 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND +4C OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BY 00Z FRI...AND REMAIN AROUND
-4C FAR NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE MOIST LAYER IS
RATHER LIMITED...WITH ICE CRYSTAL PRESENCE IN QUESTION. LATER SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME MIXED PRECIP ONCE WE GET CLOSER.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF TO AFFECT
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12 HOURS
FASTER. A MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS THE CORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH
THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TWENTIES TO LOWER
THIRTIES WEDNESDAY. THEY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID THIRTIES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND COOL A BIT BEHIND THE CLIPPER OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN SPOTS.
OVERALL...WE EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE RUC 900-925MB PRESSURE DEFICITS WERE INDICATING SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...BUT JUST DON`T HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO DIMINISH CEILINGS TOO MUCH. A CLIPPER MAY SPREAD
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION TONIGHT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 15 29 11 30 / 20 30 10 0
INL 11 27 6 29 / 20 20 10 0
BRD 16 29 10 30 / 30 30 10 10
HYR 16 30 12 32 / 30 60 20 10
ASX 16 29 15 30 / 30 60 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 14Z RAP UPDATE...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WOULD SUGGEST THE
LIGHT QPF WILL HANG AROUND OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...SO TWEAKED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WOBBLES EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS. DEBATED INCLUDING OUR EASTERN ZONES IN A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
GUST CRITERIA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A NEW FORECAST IS OUT. HOLT COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT. THE SNOW IS GRADUALLY
WINDING DOWN BUT WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED AT 4 AM. SOME STRATUS
WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY GIVEN THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR -14C. ONCE THE SUN SETS...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR AND FORECAST LOWS TAKE THE COOL ROUTE WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS.
ON MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY TO DESTABILIZE THE ATM
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SETTING OFF SOME AFTN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE NAN SUGGESTED RAIN WHILE THE GFS INDICATED SNOW. SO
THE FORECAST IS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
COULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING IN A FEW ERN ZONES. MODEL WIND
DATA SUGGEST 45 MPH GUSTS THERE UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. THE VAD WIND
PROFILER AT THEDFORD IS DOWN TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CAN CONTINUE ON SCHEDULE. THE SNOW AND WIND
SHOULD BE EXITING THOSE AREAS. LINCOLN AND FRONTIER COUNTIES MIGHT
NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 12Z BUT RADAR WILL DICTATE THAT.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS AND
PERHAPS COLDER WITH DEEP SNOW COVER. THE REST OF THE FCST IS
STRAIGHT FORWARD. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEE THE LARGE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUT THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING A GOOD DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO DON/T THINK
ANYTHING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MEASURABLE. THEN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LIFT INCREASES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA
WITH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LOOKING TO
BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOR GOOD
UPWARD MOTION. THE MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE
IN THESE SAME AREAS SO LIGHT SNOW MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSITION EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BEING MODELED TO INCREASE ALMOST 10C. BUT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM AND SNOW COVER /WHICH FROM
REPORTS THIS EVENING IS EXTENSIVE IN SOME AREAS/ WAS A BIT
PESSIMISTIC IN HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET ON MONDAY AS THE
SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX.
THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING COLD SHOT BEHIND THE MONDAY
SYSTEM...BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT THE
WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAY STILL
SEE SOME IMPACT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO DO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE AXIS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THESE HIGHS ARE TOO PESSIMISTIC...BUT WOULD/VE LIKED TO SEE
STRONGER WINDS TO HELP DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK BY WEDNESDAY. HELD
HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER TEENS
BY 00Z SATURDAY. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY...AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WHILE A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE FORECAST IS NOT AS WARM AS SOME OF THE MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST AS THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE PUTTING 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES AND CAN TREND THE FORECAST UPWARD IF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES INCREASES.
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOLDOWN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MAY NOT BE OVER NEBRASKA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY...BUT WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA RELAXES. EASTERN TERMINALS...SUCH AS
KVTN...KLBF...KTIF...KBBW...AND KONL MAY SEE ADDITIONAL GUSTS TO
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE/VE SHOULD HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE
STRONGEST GUSTS. TONIGHT...WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW
10KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE STILL
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING. WITHIN THE
SNOW...THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW
3SM...SO SUPPOSE THAT BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 21Z...BUT NOT EXPECTED. NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WHICH SUGGEST AN END TIME
TO THE FALLING SNOW AROUND 21Z. WILL MAINTAIN A -SN TEMPO GROUP AT
KVTN UNTIL 22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE -SN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 14Z RAP UPDATE...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WOULD SUGGEST THE
LIGHT QPF WILL HANG AROUND OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...SO TWEAKED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WOBBLES EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS. DEBATED INCLUDING OUR EASTERN ZONES IN A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
GUST CRITERIA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A NEW FORECAST IS OUT. HOLT COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT. THE SNOW IS GRADUALLY
WINDING DOWN BUT WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED AT 4 AM. SOME STRATUS
WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY GIVEN THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR -14C. ONCE THE SUN SETS...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR AND FORECAST LOWS TAKE THE COOL ROUTE WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS.
ON MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY TO DESTABILIZE THE ATM
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SETTING OFF SOME AFTN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE NAN SUGGESTED RAIN WHILE THE GFS INDICATED SNOW. SO
THE FORECAST IS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
COULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING IN A FEW ERN ZONES. MODEL WIND
DATA SUGGEST 45 MPH GUSTS THERE UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. THE VAD WIND
PROFILER AT THEDFORD IS DOWN TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CAN CONTINUE ON SCHEDULE. THE SNOW AND WIND
SHOULD BE EXITING THOSE AREAS. LINCOLN AND FRONTIER COUNTIES MIGHT
NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 12Z BUT RADAR WILL DICTATE THAT.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS AND
PERHAPS COLDER WITH DEEP SNOW COVER. THE REST OF THE FCST IS
STRAIGHT FORWARD. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEE THE LARGE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUT THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING A GOOD DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO DON/T THINK
ANYTHING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MEASURABLE. THEN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LIFT INCREASES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA
WITH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LOOKING TO
BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOR GOOD
UPWARD MOTION. THE MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE
IN THESE SAME AREAS SO LIGHT SNOW MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSITION EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BEING MODELED TO INCREASE ALMOST 10C. BUT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM AND SNOW COVER /WHICH FROM
REPORTS THIS EVENING IS EXTENSIVE IN SOME AREAS/ WAS A BIT
PESSIMISTIC IN HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET ON MONDAY AS THE
SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX.
THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING COLD SHOT BEHIND THE MONDAY
SYSTEM...BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT THE
WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAY STILL
SEE SOME IMPACT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO DO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE AXIS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THESE HIGHS ARE TOO PESSIMISTIC...BUT WOULD/VE LIKED TO SEE
STRONGER WINDS TO HELP DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK BY WEDNESDAY. HELD
HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER TEENS
BY 00Z SATURDAY. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY...AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WHILE A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE FORECAST IS NOT AS WARM AS SOME OF THE MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST AS THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE PUTTING 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES AND CAN TREND THE FORECAST UPWARD IF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES INCREASES.
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOLDOWN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MAY NOT BE OVER NEBRASKA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN SD AND THIS AREA
OF CLOUDS COULD ROTATE SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB LATER THIS MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTN. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS. SKIES WOULD THEN CLEAR NEAR SUNSET.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
718 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A NEW FORECAST IS OUT. HOLT COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT. THE SNOW IS GRADUALLY
WINDING DOWN BUT WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED AT 4 AM. SOME STRATUS
WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY GIVEN THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR -14C. ONCE THE SUN SETS...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR AND FORECAST LOWS TAKE THE COOL ROUTE WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS.
ON MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY TO DESTABILIZE THE ATM
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SETTING OFF SOME AFTN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE NAN SUGGESTED RAIN WHILE THE GFS INDICATED SNOW. SO
THE FORECAST IS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
COULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING IN A FEW ERN ZONES. MODEL WIND
DATA SUGGEST 45 MPH GUSTS THERE UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. THE VAD WIND
PROFILER AT THEDFORD IS DOWN TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CAN CONTINUE ON SCHEDULE. THE SNOW AND WIND
SHOULD BE EXITING THOSE AREAS. LINCOLN AND FRONTIER COUNTIES MIGHT
NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 12Z BUT RADAR WILL DICTATE THAT.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS AND
PERHAPS COLDER WITH DEEP SNOW COVER. THE REST OF THE FCST IS
STRAIGHT FORWARD. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEE THE LARGE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUT THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING A GOOD DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO DON/T THINK
ANYTHING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MEASURABLE. THEN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LIFT INCREASES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA
WITH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LOOKING TO
BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOR GOOD
UPWARD MOTION. THE MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE
IN THESE SAME AREAS SO LIGHT SNOW MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSITION EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BEING MODELED TO INCREASE ALMOST 10C. BUT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM AND SNOW COVER /WHICH FROM
REPORTS THIS EVENING IS EXTENSIVE IN SOME AREAS/ WAS A BIT
PESSIMISTIC IN HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET ON MONDAY AS THE
SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX.
THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING COLD SHOT BEHIND THE MONDAY
SYSTEM...BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT THE
WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAY STILL
SEE SOME IMPACT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO DO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE AXIS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THESE HIGHS ARE TOO PESSIMISTIC...BUT WOULD/VE LIKED TO SEE
STRONGER WINDS TO HELP DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK BY WEDNESDAY. HELD
HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER TEENS
BY 00Z SATURDAY. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY...AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WHILE A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE FORECAST IS NOT AS WARM AS SOME OF THE MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST AS THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE PUTTING 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES AND CAN TREND THE FORECAST UPWARD IF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES INCREASES.
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOLDOWN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MAY NOT BE OVER NEBRASKA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN SD AND THIS AREA
OF CLOUDS COULD ROTATE SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB LATER THIS MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTN. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS. SKIES WOULD THEN CLEAR NEAR SUNSET.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
616 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
COULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING IN A FEW ERN ZONES. MODEL WIND
DATA SUGGEST 45 MPH GUSTS THERE UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. THE VAD WIND
PROFILER AT THEDFORD IS DOWN TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CAN CONTINUE ON SCHEDULE. THE SNOW AND WIND
SHOULD BE EXITING THOSE AREAS. LINCOLN AND FRONTIER COUNTIES MIGHT
NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 12Z BUT RADAR WILL DICTATE THAT.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS AND
PERHAPS COLDER WITH DEEP SNOW COVER. THE REST OF THE FCST IS
STRAIGHT FORWARD. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEE THE LARGE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUT THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING A GOOD DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO DON/T THINK
ANYTHING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MEASURABLE. THEN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LIFT INCREASES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA
WITH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LOOKING TO
BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOR GOOD
UPWARD MOTION. THE MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE
IN THESE SAME AREAS SO LIGHT SNOW MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSITION EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BEING MODELED TO INCREASE ALMOST 10C. BUT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM AND SNOW COVER /WHICH FROM
REPORTS THIS EVENING IS EXTENSIVE IN SOME AREAS/ WAS A BIT
PESSIMISTIC IN HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET ON MONDAY AS THE
SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX.
THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING COLD SHOT BEHIND THE MONDAY
SYSTEM...BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT THE
WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAY STILL
SEE SOME IMPACT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO DO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE AXIS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THESE HIGHS ARE TOO PESSIMISTIC...BUT WOULD/VE LIKED TO SEE
STRONGER WINDS TO HELP DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK BY WEDNESDAY. HELD
HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER TEENS
BY 00Z SATURDAY. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY...AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WHILE A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE FORECAST IS NOT AS WARM AS SOME OF THE MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST AS THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE PUTTING 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES AND CAN TREND THE FORECAST UPWARD IF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES INCREASES.
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOLDOWN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MAY NOT BE OVER NEBRASKA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN SD AND THIS AREA
OF CLOUDS COULD ROTATE SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB LATER THIS MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTN. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS. SKIES WOULD THEN CLEAR NEAR SUNSET.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR NEZ006>010-025-026-036-037-058-059-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ027>029-038.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
COLD FRONT HAD CROSSED ALL TAF SITES PRIOR TO 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH RAIN EARLIER AT
KLNK AND AT NWS OFFICE...SO WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO KOMA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS POSSIBLE AT
KOMA/LNK THROUGH 10-11Z PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT NONE WAS
INCLUDED IN TAF FORECAST WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND COVERAGE
QUESTIONABLE. AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SERN NEBR SUNDAY A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES. THIS WAS
FORECAST INTO KOFK VICINITY IN THE MORNING AND REACHING KOMA AND
POINTS EAST BY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VSBYS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
NOTED IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD
LINGER THROUGH 11/06Z AT KOMA.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013/
UPDATE...
ADDED FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR TONIGHT MANY AREAS.
DISCUSSION...
WITH COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING PRECIP AREA PRETTY QUICKLY AND BASED ON
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS+OBSERVATIONS OVER HOLT COUNTY A BIT
EARLIER...ADDED FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MENTION. MENTION WAS MADE NWRN
ZONES THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT INTO OMAHA/LINCOLN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME INDICATIONS IT COULD BE BRIEF IN OMA/LNK.
LITTLE OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
CHERMOK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA TO THE SWRN CONUS WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. NRN WAVE
WAS MIGRATING ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER...SRN BRANCH WAS IN THE FORM
OF A CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF THE 4 CORNERS. MEANWHILE...SFC
REFLECTION OF SRN ENERGY WAS CENTERED OVER WRN KS WITH A DISTINCT
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SERN SD TO NW KS. ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
MOIST PER MORNING PRECIP WATER PLOT..AROUND AN INCH IN CNTRL OK AND
0.92" AT TOP. EXPECT INTENSE GULF MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE THRU
TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC LOW.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ELEMENTS NEEDED FOR WINTER
STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. WITH PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE TO TAP...NO QUESTION FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO. PROBLEM REMAINS THOUGH DETERMINING
PCPN CHANGE FROM RA TO SN AS WELL AS PINNING DOWN TOTAL SN
ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST SFC OBS WERE SHOWING THRUST OF CAA HAS PUSHED ITS WAY THRU THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN NEB WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S.
CURRENTLY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY WAS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE
NRN CWA.
AS MENTIONED...SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SFC REFLECTION MOVE ACROSS KS. FORCING WILL BE
ENHANCED FURTHER VIA STRONG UPPER LVL DIVG. ALSO BOTH THE NAM/GFS
MAINTAIN STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THRU THE NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM
MIGRATES EAST...CAA WRAPPING AROUND SFC LOW WILL FINALLY PENETRATE
DEEPER INTO THE CWA. PER 850MB TEMPS/SFC TIME-SECTIONS/CRITICAL THKNS
IT APPEARS THAT AIR MASS NEEDED FOR PCPN CHANGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. SPECIFICALLY...AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KOFK...TWD DAWN AT
KOMA/KLNK THEN SHORTLY AFT OVER THE IA CWA.
REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS...MUCH OF COURSE DEPENDING UPON CORRECTLY
TIMING CAA FILTERING IN. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE NRN CWA
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS WHERE DENDRITIC LIFT/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING IS MOST PREVALENT. THIS ALONG WITH PATH OF 500MB HFC.
COMPOSITE OF NAM/GFS QPF...SFC WINDS...VSBY PROGS STILL SUGGEST NEAR-
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT TEKAMAH TO DAVID CITY WHERE A WINTER
STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO POST A WINTER
WX ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA FOR COMBINATION OF
SN/BLSN/REDUCED VSBY.
DEE
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GREATER
THAN THE ECMWF. THUS THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE AREA TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE
OF THESE SHORT WAVES MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...WILL OPT TO LEAVE EXTENDED
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
SMITH
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ045-
051>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ034-044-050.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1126 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...PUSHING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH HEAVIER LAKE
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM NEAR TORONTO THEN SOUTH AND BOWED A BIT
EAST TO BUFFALO THEN BACK SOUTHWEST TO ERIE PA LATE THIS EVENING.
AREA RADARS SHOWING TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. ONE IS OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE SECOND IS LOCATED BACK
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS JUST LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE FOUND. THE OTHER CONCERN IS WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER ARE SHOWING GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WHILE FURTHER SOUTH
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER SOME SITES HAVE REPORTED
UP TO 45 MPH.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. MODEL AND WPC CONSENSUS QPF IS IN THE
0.33 TO 0.67 INCH RANGE. FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO SHOW TIMING OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE LINES OF CURRENT RADAR LOOPS AND RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR MODEL WHICH IS HANDLING THE LINE OF SHOWERS WELL.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WNY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE ENDING TIME FOR SHOWERS RUNNING AROUND 2AM/06Z FOR THE FAR
WEST. THE BEST START TIMING FOR THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
REGION WILL BE NEAR MIDNIGHT ENDING AROUND 4AM/08Z. SOME SHOWERS
HAVE REACHED PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTY ALREADY BUT THE STEADIER
RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED PONDING OR LOW LYING
CONCERNS...BUT SEE NO REAL HYDROLOGIC ISSUES WITH THIS RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY AS MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT READINGS FALLING TO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH...WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S...BUT PROBABLY REMAINING IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING WILL
LIKELY KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED DURING TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT LIKELY TRANSITIONING
OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUED TO
DEEPEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD JUST BE
EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT AS SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR
FILTERS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS EVEN COLDER AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND 850 MB TEMPS DROP BELOW -10C...LOOK FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT
THE FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS QUICKLY
FALLING FROM AROUND 8KFT TO 5KFT...DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO
RUN MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH SNOWS
ACCUMULATING MAINLY SOUTH OF BUFFALO. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY GIVEN LONGER FETCH OF THE LAKE ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF COLDER ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS RUNNING IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF -15C TO -18C. THE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
REALTIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS
THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION...BRINGING AN
END TO THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY.
THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO READINGS THAT
SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 20S THURSDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH THE LONGER DAYS SHUOLD HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH LOW TO
MID 20S NEAR THE LAKES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET AND DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING
CLIPPER DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A WIDESPREAD INCH OR TWO
OF WET SNOW. THERE ARE ISSUES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
AS A RESULT HAVE OPTED TO JUST STICK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL
TIMING FIRMS UP.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUOLD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER...HOWEVER LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY PLENTY OF COLD AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ARRIVED AT KBUF/KIAG/KJHW LATE THIS EVENING
AHEAD/ALONG A COLD FRONT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE VFR NOW BUT EXPECT
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT
A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHIFTY AND GUSTY WINDS RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT. KROC AND KART WILL SEE MORE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS
PAST MIDNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME WIND ISSUES AS WELL...A LOW LEVEL JET
ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN BRINGING SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BOTH AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PERIODIC GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE FRONT. TIMING IS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO BKN/OVC VFR THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR CIGS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...A WESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
202 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE MOVED EAST INTO THE AREA. SOME
VIRGA ALSO SEEN COMING OUT OF THE MID DECK. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE QUICKLY INTO THE 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPED CLOUD AMOUNTS OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FCST REGARDING
RIDGE/VLY SPLIT. HILLTOPS CURRENTLY IN THE LWR 30S AND VLYS IN THE
MID-20S WITH SIGNIFICANT INVERSION IN PLACE PER LATEST RAP BUFKIT
SNDGS. CLR SKIES HV BEEN PREVALENT THIS EVNG WITH CIRRUS WORKING
INTO WRN ZONES CURRENTLY AS HIGH CLDS RNDG CREST OF THE RIDGE. THIS
HAS GIVEN WAY TO RADNL COOLING CONDS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO START OFF ARND 20F IN VLYS/30F ON HILLTOPS WL RISE
QUICKLY TDA. SW BL FLOW WL KICK IN THIS MRNG BOOSTING H9 TEMPS ACRS
CWA. 00Z GEM CLDS INDICATE PCLDY CONDS THIS MRNG BUT CLDS EXPECTED
TO THIN BY AFTN UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN MAY LEAD TO A MSTLY SUNNY
AFTN ACRS THE REGION. HWVR WL GNRLY GO WITH PCLDY WORDING FOR TDA
GIVEN A MORE FILTERED-TYPE SUNSHINE. H9 TEMPS WL RISE TO NR +10C
ACRS THE LK PLAIN THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE U50S IN THESE
AREAS, MAINLY LWR ELEVATIONS OF YATES TO ONEIDA CNTY. IN ADDITION,
BUMPED VLY LOCATIONS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO MET NUMBERS.
H5 RIDGE WL STRENGTHEN ACRS THE NERN U.S. WITH 570 HEIGHTS INTO
UPSTATE NY BY EVNG COURTESY OF DEEPENING LOW ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
NO PCPN EXPECTED TDA AS ATMOSPHERE WL BE DRY AS A BONE PER 00Z KALY
AND KBUF RAOBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AREA WL BE WELL EAST OF SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED THRU 00Z TUESDAY. ALL GUIDANCE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LEAD WV OPENING UP AND EJECTING NORTH INTO
ONTARIO. THEREFORE POPS WL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFT 00Z.
00Z GFS INDICATES MAINLY DOWNGLIDE THRU MON AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WK PCPN DVLPNG ACRS SWRN CNTYS BY 00Z TUE THO COND PRESSURE DEFICITS
> 50 MB, SUPPORTIVE OF NAM BUFKIT SNDGS FOR KELM/KIPT INDICATING DRY
AIRMASS THRU MIDNIGHT. GIVEN MOCLDY CONDS EXPECTED AHD OF CDFNT MAX
TEMPS WL LKLY TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
WV PROGGED TO DVLP ALNG FRONTAL BNDRY BY TUE AFTN AND RIDE NORTH
THRU CWA. THIS WL SLOW CDFNT DOWN EVEN MORE AND FROPA WL LKLY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL TUE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES UP THE FRONT DRG THE
AFTN, FROPA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 18Z. H8 WINDS DRG THIS TIME INCRS
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO BTWN 50-60KTS WITH PW VALUES APPCHG 1.00 INCHES
ATTM. EXPECT 24-HR QPF AMNTS THRU 00Z WED TO AVG AROUND 0.50 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH IN THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS FM THE CATS.
AFT 00Z WED CLD AIR FILTERS INTO CWA WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO
NR -10C. THIS WL BE MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. THUS HV KEPT LOW
CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE NY AND SLGT CHC FOR NEPA FOR TUE NGT. PTYPE WL
DEPEND ON TEMPS THRU MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN SWITCHING OVR
TO ALL SNOW AFT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT UNDER 300/310 FLOW WITH T85 AROUND -15C.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY AS SFC HIGH
PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SFC LOW MAY KICK OFF
SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS T85 DROPS BACK INTO THE -15C RANGE.
BY SUNDAY, STRONG HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD PRODUCE A
DRY AND COLD N/NE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH
PRIMARILY SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY.
WED TO THU...MVFR IN -SHSN MAINLY CNTRL NY.
FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
953 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE MOVED EAST INTO THE AREA. SOME
VIRGA ALSO SEEN COMING OUT OF THE MID DECK. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE QUICKLY INTO THE 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPED CLOUD AMOUNTS OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FCST REGARDING
RIDGE/VLY SPLIT. HILLTOPS CURRENTLY IN THE LWR 30S AND VLYS IN THE
MID-20S WITH SIGNIFICANT INVERSION IN PLACE PER LATEST RAP BUFKIT
SNDGS. CLR SKIES HV BEEN PREVALENT THIS EVNG WITH CIRRUS WORKING
INTO WRN ZONES CURRENTLY AS HIGH CLDS RNDG CREST OF THE RIDGE. THIS
HAS GIVEN WAY TO RADNL COOLING CONDS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO START OFF ARND 20F IN VLYS/30F ON HILLTOPS WL RISE
QUICKLY TDA. SW BL FLOW WL KICK IN THIS MRNG BOOSTING H9 TEMPS ACRS
CWA. 00Z GEM CLDS INDICATE PCLDY CONDS THIS MRNG BUT CLDS EXPECTED
TO THIN BY AFTN UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN MAY LEAD TO A MSTLY SUNNY
AFTN ACRS THE REGION. HWVR WL GNRLY GO WITH PCLDY WORDING FOR TDA
GIVEN A MORE FILTERED-TYPE SUNSHINE. H9 TEMPS WL RISE TO NR +10C
ACRS THE LK PLAIN THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE U50S IN THESE
AREAS, MAINLY LWR ELEVATIONS OF YATES TO ONEIDA CNTY. IN ADDITION,
BUMPED VLY LOCATIONS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO MET NUMBERS.
H5 RIDGE WL STRENGTHEN ACRS THE NERN U.S. WITH 570 HEIGHTS INTO
UPSTATE NY BY EVNG COURTESY OF DEEPENING LOW ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
NO PCPN EXPECTED TDA AS ATMOSPHERE WL BE DRY AS A BONE PER 00Z KALY
AND KBUF RAOBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AREA WL BE WELL EAST OF SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED THRU 00Z TUESDAY. ALL GUIDANCE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LEAD WV OPENING UP AND EJECTING NORTH INTO
ONTARIO. THEREFORE POPS WL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFT 00Z.
00Z GFS INDICATES MAINLY DOWNGLIDE THRU MON AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WK PCPN DVLPNG ACRS SWRN CNTYS BY 00Z TUE THO COND PRESSURE DEFICITS
> 50 MB, SUPPORTIVE OF NAM BUFKIT SNDGS FOR KELM/KIPT INDICATING DRY
AIRMASS THRU MIDNIGHT. GIVEN MOCLDY CONDS EXPECTED AHD OF CDFNT MAX
TEMPS WL LKLY TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
WV PROGGED TO DVLP ALNG FRONTAL BNDRY BY TUE AFTN AND RIDE NORTH
THRU CWA. THIS WL SLOW CDFNT DOWN EVEN MORE AND FROPA WL LKLY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL TUE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES UP THE FRONT DRG THE
AFTN, FROPA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 18Z. H8 WINDS DRG THIS TIME INCRS
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO BTWN 50-60KTS WITH PW VALUES APPCHG 1.00 INCHES
ATTM. EXPECT 24-HR QPF AMNTS THRU 00Z WED TO AVG AROUND 0.50 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH IN THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS FM THE CATS.
AFT 00Z WED CLD AIR FILTERS INTO CWA WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO
NR -10C. THIS WL BE MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. THUS HV KEPT LOW
CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE NY AND SLGT CHC FOR NEPA FOR TUE NGT. PTYPE WL
DEPEND ON TEMPS THRU MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN SWITCHING OVR
TO ALL SNOW AFT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG BASED ON LATEST WPC DATA...BUT OVERALL
TREND REMAIN THE SAME WITH NWLY FLOW/COLDER TEMPS FOLLOWING
TUESDAY`S FROPA. LAKE ENHANCED -SHSN WED AND WED NGT...DCRSNG ON
THU. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE PCPN TWDS NXT WEEKEND.
PREV BLO...
12 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS CLOSER NOW WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NE US AND A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NY AND PA FOR THE
PERIOD. BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY THERE WILL BE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TUES NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE WED DIGGING THE UL TROF DEEPER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -14 WED THEN TO
-18 THU. THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND LAKE EFFECT.
LAKE ONTARIO SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE GOES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY BACK TO NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH SCT-BKN100 AND BKN-
OVC200. BAND OF 100 OVC EARLY THIS MRNG NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR A FLURRY WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTNL FOR ISOLD -SHRA IF
THE ACTIVITY OVER OH HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT HEADS NEWD THIS AFTN.
WINDS TDA WILL BCM SELY AND INCRS TO 10-15 KTS...WITH G20 THIS
AFTN MAINLY AT ITH/SYR DUE TO BL MIXING AND STRONGER LOW LVL 925
FLOW. SE WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS TNGT.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY.
WED TO THU...MVFR IN -SHSN MAINLY CNTRL NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
640 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE MILD
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FCST REGARDING
RIDGE/VLY SPLIT. HILLTOPS CURRENTLY IN THE LWR 30S AND VLYS IN THE
MID-20S WITH SIGNIFICANT INVERSION IN PLACE PER LATEST RAP BUFKIT
SNDGS. CLR SKIES HV BEEN PREVALENT THIS EVNG WITH CIRRUS WORKING
INTO WRN ZONES CURRENTLY AS HIGH CLDS RNDG CREST OF THE RIDGE. THIS
HAS GIVEN WAY TO RADNL COOLING CONDS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO START OFF ARND 20F IN VLYS/30F ON HILLTOPS WL RISE
QUICKLY TDA. SW BL FLOW WL KICK IN THIS MRNG BOOSTING H9 TEMPS ACRS
CWA. 00Z GEM CLDS INDICATE PCLDY CONDS THIS MRNG BUT CLDS EXPECTED
TO THIN BY AFTN UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN MAY LEAD TO A MSTLY SUNNY
AFTN ACRS THE REGION. HWVR WL GNRLY GO WITH PCLDY WORDING FOR TDA
GIVEN A MORE FILTERED-TYPE SUNSHINE. H9 TEMPS WL RISE TO NR +10C
ACRS THE LK PLAIN THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE U50S IN THESE
AREAS, MAINLY LWR ELEVATIONS OF YATES TO ONEIDA CNTY. IN ADDITION,
BUMPED VLY LOCATIONS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO MET NUMBERS.
H5 RIDGE WL STRENGTHEN ACRS THE NERN U.S. WITH 570 HEIGHTS INTO
UPSTATE NY BY EVNG COURTESY OF DEEPENING LOW ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
NO PCPN EXPECTED TDA AS ATMOSPHERE WL BE DRY AS A BONE PER 00Z KALY
AND KBUF RAOBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AREA WL BE WELL EAST OF SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED THRU 00Z TUESDAY. ALL GUIDANCE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LEAD WV OPENING UP AND EJECTING NORTH INTO
ONTARIO. THEREFORE POPS WL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFT 00Z.
00Z GFS INDICATES MAINLY DOWNGLIDE THRU MON AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WK PCPN DVLPNG ACRS SWRN CNTYS BY 00Z TUE THO COND PRESSURE DEFICITS
> 50 MB, SUPPORTIVE OF NAM BUFKIT SNDGS FOR KELM/KIPT INDICATING DRY
AIRMASS THRU MIDNIGHT. GIVEN MOCLDY CONDS EXPECTED AHD OF CDFNT MAX
TEMPS WL LKLY TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
WV PROGGED TO DVLP ALNG FRONTAL BNDRY BY TUE AFTN AND RIDE NORTH
THRU CWA. THIS WL SLOW CDFNT DOWN EVEN MORE AND FROPA WL LKLY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL TUE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES UP THE FRONT DRG THE
AFTN, FROPA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 18Z. H8 WINDS DRG THIS TIME INCRS
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO BTWN 50-60KTS WITH PW VALUES APPCHG 1.00 INCHES
ATTM. EXPECT 24-HR QPF AMNTS THRU 00Z WED TO AVG AROUND 0.50 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH IN THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS FM THE CATS.
AFT 00Z WED CLD AIR FILTERS INTO CWA WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO
NR -10C. THIS WL BE MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. THUS HV KEPT LOW
CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE NY AND SLGT CHC FOR NEPA FOR TUE NGT. PTYPE WL
DEPEND ON TEMPS THRU MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN SWITCHING OVR
TO ALL SNOW AFT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG BASED ON LATEST WPC DATA...BUT OVERALL
TREND REMAIN THE SAME WITH NWLY FLOW/COLDER TEMPS FOLLOWING
TUESDAY`S FROPA. LAKE ENHANCED -SHSN WED AND WED NGT...DCRSNG ON
THU. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE PCPN TWDS NXT WEEKEND.
PREV BLO...
12 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS CLOSER NOW WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NE US AND A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NY AND PA FOR THE
PERIOD. BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY THERE WILL BE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TUES NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE WED DIGGING THE UL TROF DEEPER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -14 WED THEN TO
-18 THU. THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND LAKE EFFECT.
LAKE ONTARIO SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE GOES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY BACK TO NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH SCT-BKN100 AND BKN-
OVC200. BAND OF 100 OVC EARLY THIS MRNG NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR A FLURRY WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTNL FOR ISOLD -SHRA IF
THE ACTIVITY OVER OH HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT HEADS NEWD THIS AFTN.
WINDS TDA WILL BCM SELY AND INCRS TO 10-15 KTS...WITH G20 THIS
AFTN MAINLY AT ITH/SYR DUE TO BL MIXING AND STRONGER LOW LVL 925
FLOW. SE WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS TNGT.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY.
WED TO THU...MVFR IN -SHSN MAINLY CNTRL NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
347 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE MILD
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FCST REGARDING
RIDGE/VLY SPLIT. HILLTOPS CURRENTLY IN THE LWR 30S AND VLYS IN THE
MID-20S WITH SIGNIFICANT INVERSION IN PLACE PER LATEST RAP BUFKIT
SNDGS. CLR SKIES HV BEEN PREVALENT THIS EVNG WITH CIRRUS WORKING
INTO WRN ZONES CURRENTLY AS HIGH CLDS RNDG CREST OF THE RIDGE. THIS
HAS GIVEN WAY TO RADNL COOLING CONDS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO START OFF ARND 20F IN VLYS/30F ON HILLTOPS WL RISE
QUICKLY TDA. SW BL FLOW WL KICK IN THIS MRNG BOOSTING H9 TEMPS ACRS
CWA. 00Z GEM CLDS INDICATE PCLDY CONDS THIS MRNG BUT CLDS EXPECTED
TO THIN BY AFTN UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN MAY LEAD TO A MSTLY SUNNY
AFTN ACRS THE REGION. HWVR WL GNRLY GO WITH PCLDY WORDING FOR TDA
GIVEN A MORE FILTERED-TYPE SUNSHINE. H9 TEMPS WL RISE TO NR +10C
ACRS THE LK PLAIN THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE U50S IN THESE
AREAS, MAINLY LWR ELEVATIONS OF YATES TO ONEIDA CNTY. IN ADDITION,
BUMPED VLY LOCATIONS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO MET NUMBERS.
H5 RIDGE WL STRENGTHEN ACRS THE NERN U.S. WITH 570 HEIGHTS INTO
UPSTATE NY BY EVNG COURTESY OF DEEPENING LOW ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
NO PCPN EXPECTED TDA AS ATMOSPHERE WL BE DRY AS A BONE PER 00Z KALY
AND KBUF RAOBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AREA WL BE WELL EAST OF SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED THRU 00Z TUESDAY. ALL GUIDANCE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LEAD WV OPENING UP AND EJECTING NORTH INTO
ONTARIO. THEREFORE POPS WL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFT 00Z.
00Z GFS INDICATES MAINLY DOWNGLIDE THRU MON AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WK PCPN DVLPNG ACRS SWRN CNTYS BY 00Z TUE THO COND PRESSURE DEFICITS
> 50 MB, SUPPORTIVE OF NAM BUFKIT SNDGS FOR KELM/KIPT INDICATING DRY
AIRMASS THRU MIDNIGHT. GIVEN MOCLDY CONDS EXPECTED AHD OF CDFNT MAX
TEMPS WL LKLY TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
WV PROGGED TO DVLP ALNG FRONTAL BNDRY BY TUE AFTN AND RIDE NORTH
THRU CWA. THIS WL SLOW CDFNT DOWN EVEN MORE AND FROPA WL LKLY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL TUE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES UP THE FRONT DRG THE
AFTN, FROPA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 18Z. H8 WINDS DRG THIS TIME INCRS
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO BTWN 50-60KTS WITH PW VALUES APPCHG 1.00 INCHES
ATTM. EXPECT 24-HR QPF AMNTS THRU 00Z WED TO AVG AROUND 0.50 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH IN THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS FM THE CATS.
AFT 00Z WED CLD AIR FILTERS INTO CWA WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO
NR -10C. THIS WL BE MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. THUS HV KEPT LOW
CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE NY AND SLGT CHC FOR NEPA FOR TUE NGT. PTYPE WL
DEPEND ON TEMPS THRU MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN SWITCHING OVR
TO ALL SNOW AFT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG BASED ON LATEST WPC DATA...BUT OVERALL
TREND REMAIN THE SAME WITH NWLY FLOW/COLDER TEMPS FOLLOWING
TUESDAY`S FROPA. LAKE ENHANCED -SHSN WED AND WED NGT...DCRSNG ON
THU. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE PCPN TWDS NXT WEEKEND.
PREV BLO...
12 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS CLOSER NOW WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NE US AND A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NY AND PA FOR THE
PERIOD. BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY THERE WILL BE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TUES NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE WED DIGGING THE UL TROF DEEPER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -14 WED THEN TO
-18 THU. THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND LAKE EFFECT.
LAKE ONTARIO SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE GOES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY BACK TO NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH SCT-BKN 200 AND
PSBLY SOME SCT AC ACRS NRN SXNS. WINDS TDA WILL BCM SELY AND INCRS
TO ARND 10 KTS...WITH G20 PSBL THIS AFTN MAINLY AT ITH/SYR DUE TO
BL MIXING AND STRONGER LOW LVL 925 FLOW. SE WINDS 10-20 KTS
TNGT.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY.
WED TO THU...MVFR IN -SHSN MAINLY CNTRL NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...NWS BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
905 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.DISCUSSION...LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOW AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH
FLURRIES OCCURRING FROM ROLLA...TO CARRINGTON AND INTO JAMESTOWN.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING. WE MAY SEE SOME EROSION ON ITS OUTER EDGES LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RUC SEEMS WAY OVERDONE WITH THE
LOW LEVEL/925MB RH FIELD...WHILE THE NAM IS OKAY BUT NOT GREAT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHWEST IS IMPROVING WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH A BENIGN WEATHER DAY AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KJMS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION..KS
AVIATION...KS/RK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
335 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
RAIN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY CONTINUES TO DRAW MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. A LARGE BAND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD GOING INTO TONIGHT.
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE WESTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE RAINFALL BEGIN.
THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BEING FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE BAND OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME AS THE BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES
SLOWLY EAST. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT COULD CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE
OVER INCH OF STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION. WITH MOST GROUNDS STILL
SATURATED FROM RECENT SNOW MELT...SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES COULD
OCCUR EVEN WITH JUST OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER SEVERAL
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN
THE HWO. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM BOTH THE MAIN BAND
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER SECONDARY BAND DEVELOPING WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR QPF FROM THIS SECOND
BAND...EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING PORTIONS OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THESE
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT...IF ANY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MID
WEST ON TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS COMPARATIVELY TO THE START OF THE WEEK. AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THIS TROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY 30 POPS OR LOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH SOME CAA...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS GOING ON INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGH RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP EACH DAY. IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME TIMING/STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT ISSUES
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC AND 00Z ECWMF WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND
THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER SO WILL
TRIM BACK POPS HEADING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE THEM
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK LIKE
THEY ARE TRYING TO LAY OUT A BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO OR
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER PCPN
ON INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. PTYPE THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH
LOW LEVELS COULD COOL OFF ENOUGH TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS TO THE WEST. AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD TAF SITES
FROM WEST TO EAST...ARRIVING FIRST AT CVG AND DAY AROUND 06Z. SPED
UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RAP AND NAM
MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...EVENTUALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20 KNOTS IN THE RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED AT CVG MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL
BRING SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THEY SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE FIZZLED AS THEY ENTERED OUR AREA SO REDUCED POPS
BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ALLOW ANY SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL
BRING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 10.00Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALSO SLOWED
DOWN THE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES AS OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS
WEAK. SOILS REMAIN MOIST TO SATURATED DUE TO RECENT SNOW MELT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE FOR
THIS EVENT...SO AM NOT EXPECTING RIVER FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY. MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS DUE
TO THIS THINKING.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACRS NW ZONES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PCPN THREAT ENDS.
ON TUESDAY...DIGGING S/WV WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW AS
AN UPR LVL TROUGH BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CAA AND MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...UPR LVL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST. CAA AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE VARIOUS WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY DRIFTING DOWN ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIANCE
IN BOTH STRENGTH AND TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IF WE DO GET ANY PCPN...AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS TO GET
MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW TO RAIN PTYPE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS TO THE WEST. AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD TAF SITES
FROM WEST TO EAST...ARRIVING FIRST AT CVG AND DAY AROUND 06Z. SPED
UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RAP AND NAM
MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...EVENTUALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20 KNOTS IN THE RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED AT CVG MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.AVIATION...
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTN HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTN...THOUGH NOT REALLY DROPPING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. BEFORE
THEN...THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOFT BLDU...THOUGH VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS AT KLBB WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THE SUSTAINED 30 KT AWW THRESHOLD EARLY ON...BUT WILL HOPEFULLY
REMAIN JUST BELOW. KLBB OPERATIONS HAS BEEN BRIEFED ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013/
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z. 12Z WRF-NAM AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR NWP
SUGGEST THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
PROVIDING THE WIND WILL NOT WEAKEN MUCH UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.
THUS...WE EXPECT THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON HOUR...THOUGH THE WINDS WILL NOT REALLY
SUBSIDE UNTIL TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS. THE UPDATED FORECAST AND
HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS
PRESSURE RISES TAKE PLACE BEHIND A CANADIAN FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY. SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS RESPONSIBLE
FOR LAST NIGHT`S AND TODAY`S WEATHER APPROACH THE MIDWEST. BEFORE
THEN...A BAND OF STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...SO FOG AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER NOON...WHEN THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY EXPIRES. UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DECREASE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ONLY SEEING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP TO NEAR 10 MPH AND BELOW TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT IN WAKE
OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING
LOOK TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE...MAKING FOR ONE MORE LIGHT
FROST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND
ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
QUIET EXTENDED COMING UP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING. A
FEW MINOR RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE TO OUR NORTH
BUT WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. ECM POINTS TO A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO DAY 8 WHILE GFS
KEEPS RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE. WEAK FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MAKE IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
MODEST SOUTHERLIES TO PREVAIL. LIKELY THE MOST NOTABLE WX ITEM
THIS WEEK WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF FUEL DRYING EVIDENT WITH A
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF LOW AFTN RH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 44 25 59 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 45 25 59 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 46 26 61 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 49 28 63 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 49 28 63 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 51 29 63 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 51 29 64 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 49 30 62 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 50 31 65 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 53 30 63 31 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
23/07/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1111 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z. 12Z WRF-NAM AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR NWP
SUGGEST THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
PROVIDING THE WIND WILL NOT WEAKEN MUCH UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.
THUS...WE EXPECT THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON HOUR...THOUGH THE WINDS WILL NOT REALLY
SUBSIDE UNTIL TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS. THE UPDATED FORECAST AND
HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013/
AVIATION...
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KCDS AND KLBB. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL BLOW AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. KEPT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...BUT INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FOR KCDS
WITH STRATUS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR THIS MORNING. BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF LOW CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO MENTION.
KLBB MAY SEE A FEW PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FROM 15-18Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD HOWEVER
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND BELOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS
PRESSURE RISES TAKE PLACE BEHIND A CANADIAN FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY. SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS RESPONSIBLE
FOR LAST NIGHT`S AND TODAY`S WEATHER APPROACH THE MIDWEST. BEFORE
THEN...A BAND OF STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...SO FOG AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER NOON...WHEN THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY EXPIRES. UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DECREASE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ONLY SEEING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP TO NEAR 10 MPH AND BELOW TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT IN WAKE
OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING
LOOK TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE...MAKING FOR ONE MORE LIGHT
FROST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND
ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
QUIET EXTENDED COMING UP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING. A
FEW MINOR RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE TO OUR NORTH
BUT WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. ECM POINTS TO A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO DAY 8 WHILE GFS
KEEPS RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE. WEAK FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MAKE IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
MODEST SOUTHERLIES TO PREVAIL. LIKELY THE MOST NOTABLE WX ITEM
THIS WEEK WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF FUEL DRYING EVIDENT WITH A
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF LOW AFTN RH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 44 25 59 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 45 25 59 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 46 26 61 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 49 28 63 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 49 28 63 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 51 29 63 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 51 29 64 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 49 30 62 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 50 31 65 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 53 30 63 31 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
23/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY AND CHILLIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT INTO FRI BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. A
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION SAT. DRY
AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MON...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. GENERALLY
USED A BLEND OF THE 12/03Z RAP AND 11/21Z SREF SINCE THEY SEEMED
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING DETAILS OF THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THE REST OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH MEANS CONTINUING SNOW MELT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL LATER
TODAY...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. MORE DETAILS IN THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINKING THUNDER IS TOO LOW A PROBABILITY
TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH. STILL THINKING ABOUT
POSSIBLY EXPANDING FLOOD WATCH TO COVER OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECTING THIS COLD FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL IT DOES. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
TONIGHT AS WELL...CONTINUING THE SNOW MELT PROCESS. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEADLINES...
* BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
* CLIPPER LOW AND SOME POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR SATURDAY.
* A RETURN OF BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
* POTENTIAL STORM BY TUESDAY INTO THE LATE WEEK.
*/OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...
A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO/AO STATE IS IN THE CARDS AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING
/HEIGHT RISES/ ACROSS THE DAVIS STRAIGHT AND GREENLAND PERSERVERE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. THE STRONG
BLOCKING PATTERN LENDS TO PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CONSEQUENTIAL TO THE TROUGHING PATTERN...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AND COLDER ARCTIC AIR BUILDING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE AND IT DOES NOT
APPEAR WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS YET IN REGARDS TO WINTER STORMS. IT
SHOULD NOT COME AS A SURPRISE THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST HINGES
UPON OUTCOMES FORECAST BY THE ECMWF...WITH SOME WEIGHT OF THE
GFS/NAM/CANADIAN OUT TO MONDAY.
*/DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...
*/WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
COLDER AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL MAKE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY COOL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC-LIKE AIR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND A DRY SECONDARY
COLD FRONT. MAY SEE A SPOT SHOWER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AIRMASS IS
CONTINENTAL-POLAR IN NATURE WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG NORTH/WEST FACING HIGHER
TERRAIN /DOWNWARD SLOPING COMPONENT OF WIND ON THE LEEWARD SIDES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD DIMINISH POP CHANCES OTHERWISE...AND LIKELY
WILL MAKE CLOUD COVER A NON-ISSUE/. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP
TO AROUND H85 ALLOWING FOR MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR DURING THE DAY /MORE BLUSTERY FRIDAY/.
*/SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEAK WAVE QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER LOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS /BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL/.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAN WITH A SOUTHERN LOW SOLUTION. A
FEW POINTS TO CONSIDER...AS THE WAVE APPROACHES AND THEN EMERGES
OFFSHORE...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS AMPLIFIED IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE
MOVING INTO A REGION OF BETTER BAROCLINICITY...SUBSEQUENTLY
DEEPENING. AN AREA OF LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AND EFFECTIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT EMERGES WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS TO TAP INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE BELIEVED THAT
PRIOR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE WASHED OUT EFFECTIVELY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THE DAYTIME PASSAGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
CAVEATS WITH REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED AS A MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE IN AGREEMENT.
*/SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
COLDER AIR RESURGES BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW /BLUSTERY AT TIMES AS WELL-MIXED
LAPSE RATES UP TO H85 WILL ALLOW FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER
MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR/. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE AREAS
WEATHER LENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS /EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING/. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ON THE MORE MILD SIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. PER THE ECMWF...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD AN ATTENDANT APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
*/MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON A POTENTIAL STORM BUT HAS DIFFERED ON
OUTCOMES. UNCERTAIN WITH SPECIFICS. SHOULD THE STORM BE AN INSIDE
RUNNER AND A DOUBLE BARREL LOW SETUP...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DIS-
CONNECTED FROM THE EASTERLY LOW. SUCH A SETUP WOULD YIELD INTERIOR
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS...OTHERWISE WITH THE COUPLED FACT OF A
DAYTIME WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...THIS STORM MAY BE NOTHING
MORE THAN A WET-SNOW NUISANCE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN /STILL SOME
QUESTION ON POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING/. DO NOT TRUST THE FORECASTED
SNOW OUTCOMES PER THE ECMWF.
DRY SLOTTING COULD TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW UNDERGOES
OCCLUSION BECOMING STACKED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY INCREASE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE STACKED LOW WOBBLES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...UNABLE TO EXIT STAGE LEFT AGAINST THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE DAVIS
STRAIGHT/GREENLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN MOVES IN WITH DEEP LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOIST FLOW ON S-SW WINDS. MAY SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LLWS ON 40-50 KT S-SW LOW LEVEL
JET...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS...BUT MAY LINGER TO AROUND 12Z WED ACROSS E.
WEDNESDAY....HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR BY MID-MORNING FOR ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NW WINDS...BLUSTERY MORE SO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BETTER
CHANCES OF LOW-VFR CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT SN OVERSPREADING TERMINALS...TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RA S/SE
TO N/NW. LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INITIALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BACKING OUT OF THE NW
LATE.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...BUT ALSO EXPECT S-SW
WINDS TO PICK UP TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR MOST WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LOW PROBABILITY FOR 25 KT WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET SOUND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED THERE BY NEXT SHIFT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHWEST WINDS...THE STRONGER AND MORE BLUSTERY OF WHICH WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS. ANTICIPATE
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...POSSIBLY INTO RI/BI
SOUNDS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH INITIALLY...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN BACKING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL BE ALLOWED TO SUBSIDE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BEFORE
BECOMING CHOPPY AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF SOME SMALL STREAMS AS WELL AS POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MA AND NH WHERE A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. RAINFALL PROJECTED TO APPROACH AN INCH IN
6 TO 8 HOURS. MODELS INDICATE A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET BUT LOW
LEVEL THERMO PROFILE INDICATES THAT ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF THAT WIND
IS LIKELY TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE SNOW PACK ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS FAIRLY RIPE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
32F. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
OUGHT TO RELEASE AT LEAST AN INCH OR SO OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWPACK.
AS FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS...NERFC GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY THE
ASSABET AT MAYNARD GOING INTO FLOOD WITH GENERALLY 2+ INCHES OF
RAIN NEEDED TO BRING OTHER FORECAST POINTS INTO FLOOD. EVEN
SO...WE SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTH NASHUA AT FITCHBURG AND
THE SHAWSHEEN. BOTH THE SUDBURY AND PAWTUXET MAY SHOW FAIRLY SHARP
RISES BUT FOR NOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE UNLESS
SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER RAIN AND/OR HIGHER DEWPOINTS OCCUR. SLOW
RISERS SUCH AS THE CHARLES AT DOVER...TAUNTON AT W BRIDGEWATER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT BECOME ELEVATED AND
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT
FUTURE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER ONCE LATER
THIS WEEK AS WATER ENTERING THE RIVER FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH.
THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE LOCALIZED STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE
SNOW MIGHT BE BLOCKING CATCH BASINS OR DRAINS. THIS COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE.
EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>014-017-018-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...THOMPSON/BELK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
244 AM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY AND CHILLIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT INTO FRI BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. A
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION SAT. DRY
AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MON...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. GENERALLY
USED A BLEND OF THE 12/03Z RAP AND 11/21Z SREF SINCE THEY SEEMED
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING DETAILS OF THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THE REST OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH MEANS CONTINUING SNOW MELT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL LATER
TODAY...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. MORE DETAILS IN THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINKING THUNDER IS TOO LOW A PROBABILITY
TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH. STILL THINKING ABOUT
POSSIBLY EXPANDING FLOOD WATCH TO COVER OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECTING THIS COLD FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL IT DOES. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
TONIGHT AS WELL...CONTINUING THE SNOW MELT PROCESS. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MILD TEMPS WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU/FRI BUT TURNS CHILLIER
* SOME RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE SAT
* LARGER STORM POSSIBLE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE
DETAILS...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN CHILLY WEATHER WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF OUR
REGION...SO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT AN INSTABILITY SPOT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER.
SATURDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY IF THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH OR NORTH. IF IT ENDS UP PASSING TO
OUR NORTH...MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER...IF IT ENDS UP PASSING TO OUR SOUTH THERE WOULD BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR A PORTION OF OUR
REGION. ITS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...SO WAY TOO EARLY TO LOCK IN ANY
SOLUTION. WE WILL SAY THAT THIS WILL BE A MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS MOISTURE THAT WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED LAST THU NIGHT/FRI. SO WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF OUR REGION "IF" THE WAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH...THE ODDS OF A BLOCKBUSTER STORM ARE QUITE LOW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IF THE BULK OF THE EVENT ENDS UP OCCURRING
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER FOLLOWS
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUN INTO MON. THEREAFTER...THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. KEEP IN MIND
THOUGH...THIS IS MORE THAN A WEEK OUT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
WHETHER THIS COMES TO FRUITION. IN FACT...IT WILL BE MANY DAYS
UNTIL WE WILL BE ABLE TO SAY MUCH MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL. IF IT
DOES DEVELOP THOUGH...THERE LOOKS TO BE AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR IN PLACE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MARCH...SO THERE WOULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY WEATHER AT LEAST AT THE ONSET.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN MOVES
IN WITH DEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL MOIST FLOW ON S-SW WINDS. MAY SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LLWS ON
40-50 KT S-SW LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THIS
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT MAY LINGER TO
AROUND 12Z WED ACROSS E.
WEDNESDAY....HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR BY MID-MORNING FOR ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MARGINAL MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A SPOT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN/T BE RULE OUT WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME RAIN OR SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...BUT ALSO EXPECT S-SW
WIND GUSTS TO PICK UP DURING THE NIGHT. CONVERTED OVER TO A
GENERIC SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS VINEYARD SOUND
AND BUZZARDS BAY FOR GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT DURING TUE/TUE NIGHT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH...AND WILL BUILD FURTHER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS UP TO 7-9 FT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
MUCH OF THE TIME. SCA FOR SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH FOR A TIME FRI NIGHT/SAT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DIMINISHES
AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF SOME SMALL STREAMS AS WELL AS POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MA AND NH WHERE A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. RAINFALL PROJECTED TO APPROACH AN INCH IN
6 TO 8 HOURS. MODELS INDICATE A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET BUT LOW
LEVEL THERMO PROFILE INDICATES THAT ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF THAT WIND
IS LIKELY TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE SNOW PACK ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS FAIRLY RIPE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
32F. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
OUGHT TO RELEASE AT LEAST AN INCH OR SO OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWPACK.
AS FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS...NERFC GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY THE
ASSABET AT MAYNARD GOING INTO FLOOD WITH GENERALLY 2+ INCHES OF
RAIN NEEDED TO BRING OTHER FORECAST POINTS INTO FLOOD. EVEN
SO...WE SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTH NASHUA AT FITCHBURG AND
THE SHAWSHEEN. BOTH THE SUDBURY AND PAWTUXET MAY SHOW FAIRLY SHARP
RISES BUT FOR NOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE UNLESS
SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER RAIN AND/OR HIGHER DEWPOINTS OCCUR. SLOW
RISERS SUCH AS THE CHARLES AT DOVER...TAUNTON AT W BRIDGEWATER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT BECOME ELEVATED AND
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT
FUTURE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER ONCE LATER
THIS WEEK AS WATER ENTERING THE RIVER FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH.
THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE LOCALIZED STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE
SNOW MIGHT BE BLOCKING CATCH BASINS OR DRAINS. THIS COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MAZ004>006-012>014-017-018-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...THOMPSON/BELK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
143 AM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER IN THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST-EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL INCREASE POPS
TO 100 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS LIKELY FALLING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE...POSSIBLY A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION H3R AND RAP RUNS TO CONSTRUCT
HOURLY WEATHER PARAMETERS THROUGH 6 AM.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ATYPICAL WITH THE AREA HOLDING
WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO
THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST. MIDNIGHT UPDATE INITIALIZED WITH
SOME MILDER TEMPS IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...65 TO 67
DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE RAINS BEGIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LATEST 12Z NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS...YET EVEN THE SLOWEST SCENARIOS HAVE THE FRONT
OFFSHORE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AT DAYBREAK...WITH POPS 50 PERCENT AND LOWER JUST TO
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...AND HAVE INDICATED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES REMAINING FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY...PEAKING FROM 70 TO 72 DEGREES...A COMBINED RESULT OF
DELAYED COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE WARMING EFFECTS OF
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REFLECT THE COOLING TREND...FALLING MORE THAN
10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...INTO THE 40 DEGREE
RANGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS CENTRAL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL INITIATE ACCORDINGLY...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AS DECENT
DIURNAL MIXING TAPS INTO 30 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER ON
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EFFECTS DIMINISHING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CONSIDERING SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
STILL SHOWING A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS COMING MORE INTO LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHILE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAINS WERE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE TO THE SW AND W OF THE TERMINALS
AT 06Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD 09Z THIS MORNING WITH
A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS 10Z-14Z JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE HAVE
CONTINUED SIMILAR TIMING TO OUR PREVIOUS TAF SET AND ALLOW FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE FRONTAL RAINS A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING OVER 20 KT AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...STRONGEST WINDS OUTSIDE THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS AND
EVEN OVER LAND-BASED AREAS WHERE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER NEAR SHORE GEORGIA WATERS LOOKS QUITE
MARGINAL GIVEN 4 FT SEAS AT GRAYS REEF...S FLOW AND FORECAST WAVE
TRAJECTORIES...BUT WILL LET IT RIDE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE VARIOUS
UNCERTAINTIES.
WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL DIMINISH NO LATER
THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHILE
SEAS MAINTAIN ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
THE MAIN SURGE EXPECTED MORE TOWARD WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPEST MIXING
WILL BE ACROSS THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM
FROM THE COAST. THUS THE OUTER GEORGIA MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN
UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS COULD NECESSITATE
ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL. MUCH WEAKER FLOW EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...79
LONG TERM...79
AVIATION...
MARINE...ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1058 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THE AREA OF SNOW. VERY
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL IN LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AND MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOWFALL AND THE LIFT
MOVE SOUTHEAST OR REMAINS TIED TO HIGHER TO THE WEST. THE LIFT AND
SNOWFALL WEAKENS WITH TIME PER THE MODEL WORLD AND LATEST RADAR
TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT THAT. SO KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY DECREASE THEM FROM 06Z TO 09Z. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE NW FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS PLAINS WITH TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE BUILDING ALONG
WEST COAST. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW HAVE LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS ADVERTISED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA...WITH MOISTURE PROFILES SATURATING LATER THIS
EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL OVERLAP IN TIMING OF QPF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP STARTING AS
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
PRECIP I INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS STILL WEAK
INSTABILITY ADVERTISED WITH SNOW BAND...AND WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND SHORTWAVE WE COULD SEE NARROW BANDING. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT...AND WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE
FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM I AM ONLY ANTICIPATING AROUND ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL AT THE MOST. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. AIR MASS
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...THOUGH IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. WE COULD SEE IMPACT FROM SKY COVER...BUT FOR NOW I KEPT
FORECAST SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO
LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE WEST COAST
TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGIN TO RIDE UP OVER THE APEX OF THE
RIDGE. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AREA.
EARLY SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHING INITIALLY INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NO LONGER COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH EACH OTHER AT THIS POINT...BUT CONTINUE TO OFFER SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKING EAST OF THE ROCKIES SOMETIME IN THE
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE DAY ON MONDAY...DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL SOLUTION THAT ENDS UP CLOSER TO REALITY. HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED SOLUTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES. MAIN AREA OF SNOW HAS
MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF KGLD. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR
VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
SNOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KMCK. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY RISE WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE TO MID MORNING. AFTER
CLEARING OCCURS AND THE SUN COMES UP...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1011 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR THE AREA OF SNOW. VERY
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL IN LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AND MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS. THE SNOWFALL AND THE LIFT
MOVE SOUTHEAST OR REMAINS TIED TO HIGHER TO THE WEST. THE LIFT AND
SNOWFALL WEAKENS WITH TIME PER THE MODEL WORLD AND LATEST RADAR
TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT THAT. SO KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY DECREASE THEM FROM 06Z TO 09Z. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE NW FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS PLAINS WITH TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE BUILDING ALONG
WEST COAST. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW HAVE LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS ADVERTISED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA...WITH MOISTURE PROFILES SATURATING LATER THIS
EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL OVERLAP IN TIMING OF QPF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP STARTING AS
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
PRECIP I INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS STILL WEAK
INSTABILITY ADVERTISED WITH SNOW BAND...AND WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND SHORTWAVE WE COULD SEE NARROW BANDING. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT...AND WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE
FAST NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM I AM ONLY ANTICIPATING AROUND ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL AT THE MOST. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. AIR MASS
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...THOUGH IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. WE COULD SEE IMPACT FROM SKY COVER...BUT FOR NOW I KEPT
FORECAST SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH MID/UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO
LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE WEST COAST
TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGIN TO RIDE UP OVER THE APEX OF THE
RIDGE. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AREA.
EARLY SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHING INITIALLY INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NO LONGER COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH EACH OTHER AT THIS POINT...BUT CONTINUE TO OFFER SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKING EAST OF THE ROCKIES SOMETIME IN THE
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE DAY ON MONDAY...DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL SOLUTION THAT ENDS UP CLOSER TO REALITY. HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED SOLUTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON MAR 11 2013
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE LINES UP WELL WITH CURRENT WEATHER AS DEPICTED ON RADAR
AND VERIFIED WITH SURFACE OBSERVING SITES. COULD SEE AN HOUR OR
TWO OF IFR CONDITIONS AT GLD...BUT HAVE STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN VFR/MVFR. CEILINGS WILL BE MORE OF A
CONCERN THAN VISIBILITY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR VIS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIODS OF SNOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING
THE EVENT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF AROUND 08Z AT GLD AND 10Z AT MCK GIVING WAY TO A BREEZY
CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS OR SO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU WRN LWR MI IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE...AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY
COOLING CLOUD TOPS THRU NRN LWR MI AS DEEP LAYER FORCING
STRENGTHENS. AS A RESULT...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING PCPN ACROSS
NRN LWR MI. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE FAR ERN FCST
AREA FOR SEVERAL HRS THIS EVENING AS EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING PCPN
SHIELD LIFTS N. COLUMN SHOULD RAPIDLY COOL...GIVING A QUICK
TRANSITION FROM MOSTLY LIQUID TO SNOW AS PCPN ARRIVES. INCLUDED 1-2
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS LUCE COUNTY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO AN ADVY TYPE SNOW EVENT OVER THE FAR E
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF OVER
CENTRAL AND ERN NAMERICA. NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LO OVER THE LOWER
GRT LKS IS TENDING TO LIFT TO THE NE AS ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING THRU
SCENTRAL CANADA DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED TO NEAR MANISTIQUE AS OF MID AFTN. SFC
TEMPS AT ISQ/ERY HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPR 30S TO THE E OF THE SFC
LO...AND THERE IS SOME FOG HERE WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING OVER
LINGERING LLVL MSTR. THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPR LO HAS ENDED MOST OF THE PCPN EXCEPT OVER THE WRN COUNTIES...
WHICH LIE UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZN ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE H7 LO
TRACK. PERIODS OF SN HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT IN THESE AREAS
TDAY...WITH SN FALL RATES UP TO 0.5-0.75 INCH/HR. ALTHOUGH THE DRY
SLOT HAS SWEPT THRU THE CNTRL COUNTIES...SOME -SN CONTINUES OVER
MAINLY NCENTRAL MQT COUNTY WITH CYC UPSLOPE N WIND PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT LIFT. ANOTHER AREA OF -SHRASN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE UPR LO IS APRCHG THE SE
COUNTIES...BUT PRESENCE OF LARGER SCALE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITING THE COVERAGE TO SCT -SHRASN. TO THE W...12Z YPL/INL RAOBS
SHOW A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS PRESENT OVHD TO THE W OF THE
DEFORMATION ZN IN MN...AND THERE IS LTL PCPN FALLING THERE. ALTHOUGH
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE COMMA CLD APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...PCPN APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO AN AREA
NEAR LK WINNIPEG RIGHT UNDER THE COMMA HEAD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE SN TRENDS/GOING HEADLINES. FOCUS FOR TUE
SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL IMPACT OF SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
TNGT...MODELS SHOW SFC LO LIFTING NEWD INTO SE ONTARIO TNGT...BUT
CLOSED LO/DEEPER MSTR TENDING TO LINGER OVER THE UPR LKS DESPITE
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC BY 06Z. AREA OF -SHRASN LIFTING NWD
THRU LK MI AHEAD OF THE UPR LO WL IMPACT THE ERN ZNS THIS EVNG WITH
AREAS OF FOG LINGERING THERE UNTIL SFC LO PASSES TO THE NE THIS EVNG
AND COLDER AIR ARRIVES. SUSPECT LINGERING DEFORMATION ZN PCPN OVER
THE WRN CWA WL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH ARRIVAL OF THE NEGATIVE
FORCING...SO ENDED THE GOING HEADLINES AS SCHEDULED 00Z TO 06Z FM SW
TO NE. DOWNGRADED THE WARNINGS FOR BARAGA/MQT COUNTIES VALID THRU 0Z
WITH BULK OF PCPN EXPECTED TO FALL FARTHER W ON CYC SIDE OF H7 LO
TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE STEADY SN WL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER THE
W...CYC NW FLOW OF AIR/ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED
TO SINK AS LO AS -14C TO -15C BY 12Z TUE WL CAUSE NMRS SHSN TO
PERSIST. BUT CONCERNED LO INVRN HGTS/DRY MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE
12Z INL/YPL RAOBS WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE SHSN...SO
WENT NO HIER THAN LIKELY POPS FOR NOW.
TUE...DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE CWA...SO MAINTAINED
GOING INCRSG POPS TO CATEGOCIAL NEAR LK SUP BY LATE AFTN WITH FAIRLY
SHARP CYC NW FLOW ACTING AS AN ENHANCEMENT FACTOR IN THE PRESENCE OF
DEEPER MSTR/H85 TEMPS NOT FAR FM -15C. SINCE FCST SDNGS SHOW THE DGZ
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET DEEP IN THE CONVECTIVE LYR...CONCERNED SOME
ADVY INTENSITY LES MIGHT OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE CWA AT 00Z WED AND A SFC TROUGH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -14 WITH CYCLONIC NW-NNW
LOW LEVEL WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LES TUE
NIGHT...WITH WARMING TEMPS VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING IN WITH A
SFC RIDGE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUICK
BURST OF MODERATE LES ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH THAT MAY
BRING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH THE RATE THAT THE VERY DRY AIR MOVES IN LATE TUE NIGHT...LES
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...AND SHOULD BE ALMOST COMPLETELY GONE BY 15Z
WED /IF NOT A BIT EARLIER/. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN AREA OF
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH
WED NIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E OF MARQUETTE AS CONDITIONS
WILL STILL ONLY BE MARGINAL FOR LES. ELSEWHERE WED NIGHT...CLEARING
OVER THE INTERIOR W SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO MOVE NEARBY THU/THU NIGHT...BUT
CONSENSUS OF MODELS PLACES BEST FORCING AND PRECIP N AND S OF THE
CWA...SO WILL KEEP ANY POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...BACKED UP BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120+KT
JET...MOVES THROUGH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. MODEL VARY WITH TIMING...BUT
GENERALLY AGREE ON OVERALL EXTENT/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS
PAINT A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF...AND THE BEST OMEGA
LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW AND INTO THE DGZ...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY GIVEN
VOLATILE NATURE OF SHORTWAVES THAT FAR OUT...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS AOB -14C AND N-NW FLOW
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WOULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LES INTO SAT /AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT TOO UNCERTAIN IN ANY DETAILS THAT FAR OUT TO
MENTION OR ADD TO THE FORECAST/.
HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON WED...WITH A WARM UP TO AROUND 30
ON THU AND INTO THE MID 30S ON FRI. TEMPS LOOK TO DECREASE GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD AND KCMX...EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS COOLING AIRMASS/CYCLONIC
FLOW AID -SHSN OFF THE LAKE. AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS NW FLOW WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPING
LAKE EFFECT -SHSN. NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHSN LATE
MORNING THRU THE AFTN. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AT
ALL 3 SITES IN THE AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR AT TIMES
AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR AS WELL. IMPROVEMENT WILL
GET UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF DEPARTS...ALLOWING RATHER
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING NNE WINDS TO BACK TO THE NW TNGT INTO TUE
AS SFC LO OVER ERN UPR MI THIS EVNG MOVES NEWD THRU ONTARIO TOWARD
JAMES BAY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING...THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR WL RESULT IN SOME FREEZING SPRAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
WINDS TO GUST NEAR 35KTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS RELAX WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
101 AM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
MVFR CIGS WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW E OF A SFC TROF
BISECTING THE FA WITH VFR W OF THE TROF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL AFTER 12Z WHEN
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DLH AND
HYR WHERE MVFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 21Z AT DLH AND LAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT HYR WITH PERIODS OF LES SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST AS CLOUDS WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TIME. OFF AND ON FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH A
PREDOMINATE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT HYR AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. A GUSTY NW SFC WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z
AT ALL SITES BUT HYR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON MAR 11 2013/
SHORT TERM...CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. ORGANIZED FORCING IN THE
FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS HAS KEPT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER ERN
EDGE OF REGION. ELSEWHERE...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING.
TONIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING MID LVL SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM SRN
MANITOBA TO JUST SOUTH OF THE BRD LAKES VICINITY. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SFC REFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER IN THE PRESSURE OR WIND FIELDS. USED A BLEND OF THE
SREF AND EC TO KEEP POPS FOCUSED IN TWO AREAS. FIRST...ACROSS THE
SRN TIER OF ZONES CLOSER TO TRACK OF UPPER FEATURE. SECOND...AS
COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...SOME INCREASE IN LES MAY
OCCUR OVER ERN WISC SNOWBELTS.
TOMORROW...UPPER LOW SCOOTS QUICKLY SE OF REGION BY MIDDAY WITH
DEEPENING OF NLY FLOW ACROSS CWA. MOST PROBABLE AREAS FOR PRECIP
WILL BE OVER ARROWHEAD AND WISC SNOWBELTS. A WRAPAROUND LOBE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL ROTATE WESTWARD INTO ARROWHEAD DURING THE DAY. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE EC AND THE SPC WRF/NMM. 85H THERMAL TROUGH
SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN SFC/85H LAYER COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
INTO SNOWBELTS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY FOR LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGERING TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY
THE SNOWBELT REGION OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -14C TO -16C. WE INCREASED POPS AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FROM 00Z WED TO ABOUT 09Z WED. INVERSION LEVELS DROP
LATE AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BACK WEDNESDAY. AN ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES.
A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES WILL ONLY BRING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WAA
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIP LOOKS RATHER LIGHT...AND PRECIP
TYPE COULD BE IN QUESTION. 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND +4C OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BY 00Z FRI...AND REMAIN AROUND
-4C FAR NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE MOIST LAYER IS
RATHER LIMITED...WITH ICE CRYSTAL PRESENCE IN QUESTION. LATER SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME MIXED PRECIP ONCE WE GET CLOSER.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF TO AFFECT
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12 HOURS
FASTER. A MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS SHOWS THE CORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH
THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW COLDER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TWENTIES TO LOWER
THIRTIES WEDNESDAY. THEY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID THIRTIES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND COOL A BIT BEHIND THE CLIPPER OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN SPOTS.
OVERALL...WE EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE RUC 900-925MB PRESSURE DEFICITS WERE INDICATING SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...BUT JUST DON`T HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO DIMINISH CEILINGS TOO MUCH. A CLIPPER MAY SPREAD
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION TONIGHT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 11 30 16 34 / 10 0 10 30
INL 6 29 14 35 / 10 0 20 20
BRD 10 30 17 36 / 10 10 20 20
HYR 12 32 14 36 / 20 10 10 30
ASX 15 30 16 35 / 30 10 0 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
112 AM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...PUSHING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH HEAVIER LAKE
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM NEAR TORONTO THEN SOUTH AND BOWED A BIT
EAST TO BUFFALO THEN BACK SOUTHWEST TO ERIE PA LATE THIS EVENING.
AREA RADARS SHOWING TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. ONE IS OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE SECOND IS LOCATED BACK
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS JUST LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE FOUND. THE OTHER CONCERN IS WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER ARE SHOWING GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WHILE FURTHER SOUTH
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER SOME SITES HAVE REPORTED
UP TO 45 MPH.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. MODEL AND WPC CONSENSUS QPF IS IN THE
0.33 TO 0.67 INCH RANGE. FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO SHOW TIMING OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE LINES OF CURRENT RADAR LOOPS AND RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR MODEL WHICH IS HANDLING THE LINE OF SHOWERS WELL.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WNY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE ENDING TIME FOR SHOWERS RUNNING AROUND 2AM/06Z FOR THE FAR
WEST. THE BEST START TIMING FOR THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
REGION WILL BE NEAR MIDNIGHT ENDING AROUND 4AM/08Z. SOME SHOWERS
HAVE REACHED PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTY ALREADY BUT THE STEADIER
RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED PONDING OR LOW LYING
CONCERNS...BUT SEE NO REAL HYDROLOGIC ISSUES WITH THIS RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY AS MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT READINGS FALLING TO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH...WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S...BUT PROBABLY REMAINING IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING WILL
LIKELY KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED DURING TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT LIKELY TRANSITIONING
OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUED TO
DEEPEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD JUST BE
EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT AS SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR
FILTERS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS EVEN COLDER AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND 850 MB TEMPS DROP BELOW -10C...LOOK FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT
THE FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS QUICKLY
FALLING FROM AROUND 8KFT TO 5KFT...DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO
RUN MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH SNOWS
ACCUMULATING MAINLY SOUTH OF BUFFALO. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY GIVEN LONGER FETCH OF THE LAKE ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF COLDER ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS RUNNING IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF -15C TO -18C. THE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
REALTIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS
THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION...BRINGING AN
END TO THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY.
THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO READINGS THAT
SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 20S THURSDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH THE LONGER DAYS SHUOLD HELP LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS INLAND WITH LOW TO
MID 20S NEAR THE LAKES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET AND DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING
CLIPPER DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A WIDESPREAD INCH OR TWO
OF WET SNOW. THERE ARE ISSUES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
AS A RESULT HAVE OPTED TO JUST STICK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL
TIMING FIRMS UP.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUOLD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER...HOWEVER LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY PLENTY OF COLD AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AXIS OF AN
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WAS DRAPED FROM KROC TO KBFD. THE FRONT
AND BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ANY LINGERING LLWS
ENDING...SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY...AND CIGS
FALLING TO MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR WITH ITS PASSAGE. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT...SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE
FROPA...THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING BACK TO LOWER-END VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY. THIS SAID...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BRISK OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...WHERE GUSTS
TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...A WESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
717 AM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY AND CHILLIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN WED NIGHT INTO FRI BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. A
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION SAT. DRY
AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MON...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS BEGINNING TO PRESS INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT DRIVING BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY HIGHER. HAVE SEEN A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE WARMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE.
FORECAST TRENDS ARE ON TRACK AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST THE PAST 3 HOURS OTHER THAN MODIFYING THE ANTICIPATED
FOG OUTCOMES. STILL A CONSIDERABLE CHALLENGE...BUT EXPECT MUCH OF
THE REGION TO BE IN A SOUP AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS NORTH
ACROSS A GROUND IN WHERE SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE AT /ESPECIALLY FOR
SNOW COVERED AREAS/ OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. GENERALLY
USED A BLEND OF THE 12/03Z RAP AND 11/21Z SREF SINCE THEY SEEMED
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING DETAILS OF THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THE REST OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH MEANS CONTINUING SNOW MELT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL LATER
TODAY...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. MORE DETAILS IN THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY. NOT MUCH SUNSHINE EXPECTED...BUT AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINKING THUNDER IS TOO LOW A PROBABILITY
TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH. STILL THINKING ABOUT
POSSIBLY EXPANDING FLOOD WATCH TO COVER OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECTING THIS COLD FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL IT DOES. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
TONIGHT AS WELL...CONTINUING THE SNOW MELT PROCESS. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEADLINES...
* BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
* CLIPPER LOW AND SOME POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR SATURDAY.
* A RETURN OF BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
* POTENTIAL STORM BY TUESDAY INTO THE LATE WEEK.
*/OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...
A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO/AO STATE IS IN THE CARDS AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING
/HEIGHT RISES/ ACROSS THE DAVIS STRAIGHT AND GREENLAND PERSERVERE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. THE STRONG
BLOCKING PATTERN LENDS TO PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CONSEQUENTIAL TO THE TROUGHING PATTERN...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AND COLDER ARCTIC AIR BUILDING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE AND IT DOES NOT
APPEAR WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS YET IN REGARDS TO WINTER STORMS. IT
SHOULD NOT COME AS A SURPRISE THAT THE BULK OF THE FORECAST HINGES
UPON OUTCOMES FORECAST BY THE ECMWF...WITH SOME WEIGHT OF THE
GFS/NAM/CANADIAN OUT TO MONDAY.
*/DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...
*/WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
COLDER AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL MAKE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY COOL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC-LIKE AIR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND A DRY SECONDARY
COLD FRONT. MAY SEE A SPOT SHOWER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AIRMASS IS
CONTINENTAL-POLAR IN NATURE WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG NORTH/WEST FACING HIGHER
TERRAIN /DOWNWARD SLOPING COMPONENT OF WIND ON THE LEEWARD SIDES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD DIMINISH POP CHANCES OTHERWISE...AND LIKELY
WILL MAKE CLOUD COVER A NON-ISSUE/. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP
TO AROUND H85 ALLOWING FOR MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR DURING THE DAY /MORE BLUSTERY FRIDAY/.
*/SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEAK WAVE QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER LOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS /BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL/.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAN WITH A SOUTHERN LOW SOLUTION. A
FEW POINTS TO CONSIDER...AS THE WAVE APPROACHES AND THEN EMERGES
OFFSHORE...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS AMPLIFIED IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE
MOVING INTO A REGION OF BETTER BAROCLINICITY...SUBSEQUENTLY
DEEPENING. AN AREA OF LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AND EFFECTIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT EMERGES WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS TO TAP INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE BELIEVED THAT
PRIOR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE WASHED OUT EFFECTIVELY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THE DAYTIME PASSAGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
CAVEATS WITH REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED AS A MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE IN AGREEMENT.
*/SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
COLDER AIR RESURGES BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW /BLUSTERY AT TIMES AS WELL-MIXED
LAPSE RATES UP TO H85 WILL ALLOW FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER
MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR/. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE AREAS
WEATHER LENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS /EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING/. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ON THE MORE MILD SIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. PER THE ECMWF...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD AN ATTENDANT APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
*/MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON A POTENTIAL STORM BUT HAS DIFFERED ON
OUTCOMES. UNCERTAIN WITH SPECIFICS. SHOULD THE STORM BE AN INSIDE
RUNNER AND A DOUBLE BARREL LOW SETUP...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DIS-
CONNECTED FROM THE EASTERLY LOW. SUCH A SETUP WOULD YIELD INTERIOR
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS...OTHERWISE WITH THE COUPLED FACT OF A
DAYTIME WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...THIS STORM MAY BE NOTHING
MORE THAN A WET-SNOW NUISANCE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN /STILL SOME
QUESTION ON POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING/. DO NOT TRUST THE FORECASTED
SNOW OUTCOMES PER THE ECMWF.
DRY SLOTTING COULD TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW UNDERGOES
OCCLUSION BECOMING STACKED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY INCREASE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE STACKED LOW WOBBLES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...UNABLE TO EXIT STAGE LEFT AGAINST THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE DAVIS
STRAIGHT/GREENLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. ANTICIPATING
A MIX OF MVFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO WOBBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS...LIFR VSBYS
BELOW 1 SM ARE POSSIBLE. LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 50 KTS AT 2 KFT AGL PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH GRADUAL IMPROVING TRENDS AS THERE STILL
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY. WINDS TO BACK OUT OF THE W/NW.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NW WINDS...BLUSTERY MORE SO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BETTER
CHANCES OF LOW-VFR CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT SN OVERSPREADING TERMINALS...TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RA S/SE
TO N/NW. LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INITIALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BACKING OUT OF THE NW
LATE.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...BUT ALSO EXPECT S-SW
WINDS TO PICK UP TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR MOST WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LOW PROBABILITY FOR 25 KT WIND GUSTS
ACROSS CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET SOUND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED THERE BY NEXT SHIFT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHWEST WINDS...THE STRONGER AND MORE BLUSTERY OF WHICH WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS. ANTICIPATE
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...POSSIBLY INTO RI/BI
SOUNDS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH INITIALLY...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN BACKING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL BE ALLOWED TO SUBSIDE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BEFORE
BECOMING CHOPPY AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF SOME SMALL STREAMS AS WELL AS POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MA AND NH WHERE A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. RAINFALL PROJECTED TO APPROACH AN INCH IN
6 TO 8 HOURS. MODELS INDICATE A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET BUT LOW
LEVEL THERMO PROFILE INDICATES THAT ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF THAT WIND
IS LIKELY TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE SNOW PACK ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS FAIRLY RIPE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
32F. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
OUGHT TO RELEASE AT LEAST AN INCH OR SO OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWPACK.
AS FAR AS THE MAINSTEM RIVERS...NERFC GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY THE
ASSABET AT MAYNARD GOING INTO FLOOD WITH GENERALLY 2+ INCHES OF
RAIN NEEDED TO BRING OTHER FORECAST POINTS INTO FLOOD. EVEN
SO...WE SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTH NASHUA AT FITCHBURG AND
THE SHAWSHEEN. BOTH THE SUDBURY AND PAWTUXET MAY SHOW FAIRLY SHARP
RISES BUT FOR NOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE UNLESS
SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER RAIN AND/OR HIGHER DEWPOINTS OCCUR. SLOW
RISERS SUCH AS THE CHARLES AT DOVER...TAUNTON AT W BRIDGEWATER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT BECOME ELEVATED AND
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT
FUTURE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER ONCE LATER
THIS WEEK AS WATER ENTERING THE RIVER FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH.
THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE LOCALIZED STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE
SNOW MIGHT BE BLOCKING CATCH BASINS OR DRAINS. THIS COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE.
EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>014-017-018-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...BELK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
TODAY AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MID-
MARCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LINGERING
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
CHANGES MADE FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY WITH CONTINUED BREEZY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING (50F AT BTV AT 11Z)...THEN LESS WIND
THIS AFTN. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS IN PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER SLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SLOW- MOVING OCCLUSION NOW ACROSS W-CENTRAL
NY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS PW PLUME OF 0.9 TO 1.0" PRECEDING THE
FRONT ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS VT THIS
AFTN. NOTED OVERALL MODEST INCREASE IN QPF PER 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE...ESPECIALLY AS SECONDARY WAVE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
OCCLUSION THIS AFTN AND TRACKS NNEWD ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTN. ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA THIS
AFTN BASED ON POSSIBLE 0.5-0.6" RAINFALL IN 6 HR PERIOD.
THIS INCREASE IN RAINFALL AMTS -- COMBINED WITH 3-DAYS OF TEMPS
WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW MELT -- HAS WARRANTED
ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WATCH FOR ROUGHLY SRN HALF OF THE CWA. ISSUED
WATCH FOR THOSE COUNTIES WHERE BASIN-AVERAGED STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1"...WHICH INCLUDES ESSEX COUNTY
NY AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT EWD TO CALEDONIA COUNTY AND POINTS
SOUTH. RIVER FLOODING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MINOR
CATEGORY...BUT WITH ADDED UNCERTAINTY OF BREAK-UP/MOVING RIVER
ICE...THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED GREATER FLOODING
THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SMALLER STEMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
AREAWIDE MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
SOUTH WINDS STILL LOCALLY GUSTY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIR TRRN.
LOWER ELEVATION WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS RAINFALL
TENDS TO STABILIZE PBL AND P-GRADIENT FLATTENS THIS AFTN WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...SFC OCCLUSION SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
REGION AND LIKELY SHIFTS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND
00Z...AND THEN EAST OF THE CT RIVER BY 06Z. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE
COOLS ABRUPTLY...AND ANTICIPATE A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT CENTRAL VT
AND POINTS WEST...AND PERHAPS HANGING ON IN ERN VT AS LATE AS
09Z. SHOULD SEE A COATING TO AN INCH MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LOCALLY
UP TO 2" ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WAVE LOW DEEPENS TO THE
EAST ACROSS NRN NH/ME. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S...BUT A FEW COLDER READINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. A
FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY ACROSS NRN NY. TRAILING 500MB TROUGH KEEPS MID-LEVEL
FLOW S/SW ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AT THAT
POINT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. HAVE
GENERALLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S
TO LOWER 40S. WED NIGHT INTO THU AM...BETTER POTL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT...BUT BY THU MORNING LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN
INCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/CT/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BUT LOCALLY 2-4" IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH TEENS IN NRN NY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
BELOW AVG AND GENERALLY 28-32F...WITH MID 20S ACROSS NRN NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT MONDAY... FAIRLY GOOD CONGRUENCE EXISTS BETWEEN
00Z GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CLOSED UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT/DE-AMPLIFY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. A WEAK CLIPPER
MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO
APPEAR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING UPPER- LEVEL
ENERGY EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
SFC DEVELOPMENT.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LIKELY NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING TO
2". MDT-STG COLD ADVECTION WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -12C
WITH BELOW NORMAL LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT (UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE TEENS IN THE WARMER VALLEYS).
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING ALL CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE FOR
SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS BUT A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
RATHER COLD FOR MID- MARCH UNDER MDT- STG COLD ADVECTION (925MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -12 TO -14C).
FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL MONDAY WHERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF
CLOUDS THE FORECAST. NOTABLY...THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES WITH A SIGNIFICANT
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS OFFERS A
WEAKER/LESS PHASED SOLUTION. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. IF CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE
A FAIRLY MILD SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
CHANGES BUT WITH SPECIFIC DETAILS TO EVOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. GUSTS HAVE DROPPED
OFF SOME BUT EXPECT THE GUSTS TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. LLWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN A RISK FOR MOST OF THE
TAFS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
MAINLY 3-6SM AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ENHANCEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT JUST
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
LOWER VISIBILITIES AT RUT AND MPV. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18-23Z WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK. WIND SHIFT TO WEST WITH
DROPOFF IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
THOUGH VISIBILITIES IMPROVE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR/VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR/VFR DUE TO
LOWER CEILINGS AND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT...MOST PERSISTENT AT
MPV/SLK WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...LOWERING CEILINGS 06-12Z SATURDAY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VTZ007>012-018-019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
TODAY AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MID-MARCH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LINGERING UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 727 AM EDT TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY AND MILD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING (50F AT BTV
AT 11Z)...THEN LESS WIND THIS AFTN. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS IN
PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SLOW- MOVING
OCCLUSION NOW ACROSS W-CENTRAL NY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS PW PLUME OF
0.9 TO 1.0" PRECEDING THE FRONT ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EWD ACROSS VT THIS AFTN. NOTED OVERALL MODEST INCREASE IN QPF PER
00Z GUIDANCE SUITE...ESPECIALLY AS SECONDARY WAVE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE OCCLUSION THIS AFTN AND TRACKS NNEWD ACROSS WRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTN. ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SRN HALF OF
CWA THIS AFTN BASED ON POSSIBLE 0.5-0.6" RAINFALL IN 6 HR PERIOD.
THIS INCREASE IN RAINFALL AMTS -- COMBINED WITH 3-DAYS OF TEMPS
WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW MELT -- HAS WARRANTED
ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WATCH FOR ROUGHLY SRN HALF OF THE CWA. ISSUED
WATCH FOR THOSE COUNTIES WHERE BASIN-AVERAGED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1"...WHICH INCLUDES ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT EWD TO CALEDONIA COUNTY AND POINTS SOUTH. RIVER
FLOODING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT WITH ADDED
UNCERTAINTY OF BREAK-UP/MOVING RIVER ICE...THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED GREATER FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SMALLER STEMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
AREAWIDE MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOUTH
WINDS STILL LOCALLY GUSTY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIR TRRN. LOWER
ELEVATION WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS RAINFALL TENDS TO
STABILIZE PBL AND P-GRADIENT FLATTENS THIS AFTN WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF SFC WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...SFC OCCLUSION SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION
AND LIKELY SHIFTS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND
THEN EAST OF THE CT RIVER BY 06Z. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE COOLS
ABRUPTLY...AND ANTICIPATE A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT CENTRAL VT
AND POINTS WEST...AND PERHAPS HANGING ON IN ERN VT AS LATE AS 09Z.
SHOULD SEE A COATING TO AN INCH MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LOCALLY UP TO
2" ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WAVE LOW DEEPENS TO THE EAST
ACROSS NRN NH/ME. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER
30S...BUT A FEW COLDER READINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. A
FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
NRN NY. TRAILING 500MB TROUGH KEEPS MID-LEVEL FLOW S/SW ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AT THAT POINT WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. HAVE GENERALLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S. WED NIGHT INTO THU
AM...BETTER POTL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE
LARGELY ELEVATION DEPENDENT...BUT BY THU MORNING LOOKING AT JUST A
DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/CT/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BUT
LOCALLY 2-4" IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH TEENS IN NRN NY. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW AVG AND GENERALLY 28-32F...WITH MID 20S
ACROSS NRN NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT MONDAY... FAIRLY GOOD CONGRUENCE EXISTS BETWEEN
00Z GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CLOSED UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT/DEAMPLIFY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. A WEAK CLIPPER
MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO APPEAR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING UPPER- LEVEL ENERGY
EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED SFC
DEVELOPMENT.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LIKELY NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING TO 2".
MDT-STG COLD ADVECTION WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -12C WITH
BELOW NORMAL LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT (UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS IN THE WARMER VALLEYS).
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING ALL CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE FOR
SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS BUT A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
RATHER COLD FOR MID- MARCH UNDER MDT- STG COLD ADVECTION (925MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -12 TO -14C).
FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL MONDAY WHERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF
CLOUDS THE FORECAST. NOTABLY...THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES WITH A SIGNIFICANT
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS OFFERS A
WEAKER/LESS PHASED SOLUTION. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. IF CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE A
FAIRLY MILD SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES
BUT WITH SPECIFIC DETAILS TO EVOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS. THEREFORE
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. GUSTS HAVE DROPPED
OFF SOME BUT EXPECT THE GUSTS TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. LLWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN A RISK FOR MOST OF THE
TAFS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
MAINLY 3-6SM AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ENHANCEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT JUST
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
LOWER VISIBILITIES AT RUT AND MPV. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18-23Z WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK. WIND SHIFT TO WEST WITH
DROPOFF IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THOUGH
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR/VFR THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR/VFR DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS AND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT...MOST PERSISTENT AT MPV/SLK
WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...LOWERING CEILINGS 06-12Z SATURDAY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VTZ007>012-018-019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDGS ALONG THE W COAST AND OFF
THE E COAST. WITH DEEP CYC NW FLOW...ABUNDANT MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z
GRB RAOB...AND H85 TEMPS IN THE -13C TO -16C RANGE...SHSN HAVE BEEN
COMMON OVER THE CWA TODAY UNDER CLDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP
IN AREAS FAVORED BY THE NW LLVL FLOW. THE SN HAS BEEN RATHER FLUFFY
AS MODEL SDNGS INDICATE THE DGZ IS SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET DEEP GIVEN
FVRBL H85 TEMPS. THERE IS A SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD THRU MN ACCOMPANIED
BY A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED TROF AT H85-7. UPSTREAM OBS AT GRAND MARAIS
ON THE MN NORTH SHORE AND AT THUNDER BAY IN ONTARIO INDICATE SOME
HEAVIER SHSN ACCOMPANY THIS TROF PASSAGE FARTHER TO THE E-SE AWAY FM
DRIER AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS. APRCHG FCST ISSUANCE...
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHSN HAVE ARRIVED OVER THE WRN COUNTIES. CMX HAS
REPORTED VSBY DOWN TO 1/4SM AT TIMES...AND REPORTS FM GOGEBIC COUNTY
INDICATE AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF SN FELL THERE THRU 18Z.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SHRTWV IN MN DIGS SEWD...GUIDANCE SHOWS
PRONOUNCED H85 WSHFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROF PASSAGE AS WELL AS AREA OF
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC CROSSING THE CWA NW-SE. EXPECT SHSN TO INCRS IN
INTENSITY WITH THIS ENHANCED SUPPORT IN PRESENCE OF DEEP MSTR. FCST
SDNGS CONTINUE TO SHOW UVV FOCUSED IN THE DGZ...SO EXPECT HI SN/
WATER RATIOS AOA 20:1. LATER TNGT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF PASSAGE...
DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV/TROF WL
CONSPIRE TO LOWER INVRN BASES DOWN TO 2-3K FT AGL. WITH ARRIVAL OF
LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS...EXPECT LES TO DIMINISH
FAIRLY STEADILY AFT 06Z. OVERALL...SHIFTING WINDS FM NW TO N AND
LIMITED 6-9HR WINDOW OR SO FOR HEAVIER SHSN WL LIMIT TOTAL SN
FALL...SO EXPECT SN TOTALS TO REMAIN WITHIN ADVY LIMITS DESPITE
FVRBL SN/WATER RATIOS. THGE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR W...WHERE
SOME HEAVY SN FELL DURING THE AFTN AS NOTED ABV. SINCE THERE WL BE
PERIODS OF +SHSN THRU THIS EVNG IN THAT AREA WITH SOME FOCUSED LLVL
CNVGC IN FVRBL CYC NNW FLOW...OPTED TO UPGRADE ADVY TO A WARNING FOR
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. ALSO EXTENDED ADVY OVER THE ERN ZNS THRU
12Z GIVEN MORE PERSISTENT FORCING/DEEPER MSTR THERE.
WED...AXIS OF MUCH DRIER AIR WITH H85 DEWPTS AS LO AS -40C AS WELL
AS DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE UNDER STEADILY RISING H5 HGTS
FOLLOWING SHIFT OF UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WX
AFTER LINGERING SHSN OVER MAINLY THE E DIMINISH IN THE MRNG. IN
FACT...FCST SDNGS SUG SKIES MAY TURN MOSUNNY IN THE AFTN...
ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP WITH A TENDENCY FOR CLRG OVER THE WATER UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE WINTER SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OVERVIEW OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES
TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WITH BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDING WELL UPSTREAM INTO EASTERN PORTION OF PACIFIC OCEAN.
FARTHER UPSTREAM TROUGHING IS PRESENT NORTH OF HAWAII. THAT TROUGH
IS ESSENTIALLY EXTENSION OF TROUGHING RESIDING OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CANADA ON NORTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. OVER
TIME...TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES SYNCS UP WITH TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN
CANADA RESULTING IN FAST AND ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TWO SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH IN THIS FLOW PATTERN INTO
THIS WEEKEND. FIRST WAVE ALONG WITH WEAK SFC-H85 LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION GLANCES UPR LAKES TO WEST ON THURSDAY. WAVE IS DIGGING
INTO THE MEAN TROUGH WHICH FAVORS MORE OF A SOUTH AND/OR WEST TRACK
AND IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE. ALSO LOOKS LIKE ANY UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. MODELS VARY WILDLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WHERE THE MOST QPF/SNOW IS EXPECTED. GEM-NH ON SOUTHERN EXTREME...
TRACKING ACROSS IOWA...WHILE NAM IS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. NAM
IS ON NORTH EDGE OF EVEN SREF...SO IT IS CERTAINLY AN OUTLIER. GFS
AND ECMWF IN BTWN...BUT ARE STILL MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN. SINCE THERE
IS A SLIGHT EASTWARD TREND IN MODELS...WILL BRING CHANCE POPS OVER
WESTERN CWA ON THURSDAY. OTHER ISSUE...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BY MID
SHIFT...IS POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WI BORDER/SCNTRL...WILL HAVE
BEST CHANCE SEEING THIS ONCE ANY SNOW DECREASES. ELSEWHERE...THINK
TOO MUCH DRIER AIR IS AROUND BLO H85 TO HAVE IN THERE. SINCE AM NOT
CERTAIN WHERE ULTIMATELY THE STEADIER SNOW SETS UP OVR CWA...IF IT
DOES AT ALL...WILL KEEP FZDZ OUT OF FCST.
COUPLE OF SUBTLE THINGS HAPPEN LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
THAT MAY HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE GOOD THERE. TROUBLE IS THAT SAME
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE BY FRIDAY MORNING. GEM-NH FARTHER SOUTH WITH COLD AIR AND
TRENDS FROM GFS ALSO INDICATE FARTHER SOUTH LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT SFC-H85. ECMWF NOT AS COLD THOUGH. LOCATION OF TIGHTER
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD PAVE THE WAY FOR WHERE HEAVIER
QPF/SNOW SETS UP ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND SFC-H85 LOWS MOVE IN FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE IS MUCH STRONGER THAN ONE MOVING THROUGH 24 HR
EARLIER AND HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESRPEAD SNOW TO UPPER LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WHERE EVER LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP THERE ARE
ENHANCING FACTORS THAT MAY RESULT IN SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
INCLUDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK
DROPPING INTO GREAT LAKES FROM ONTARIO...DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITH H7 MIXING RATIOS OVR 3G/KG...AND OVERALL STRENGTHENING SFC-H85
LOWS/LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ADVY LEVEL SNOWS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER WEST AND SOUTH...WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGHER
THAT SNOW OCCURS. WWD DAY 3 GRAPHICS INDICATE UP TO 4 INCHES OVER
WEST THIRD OF CWA ON FRIDAY. IF FARTHER NORTH ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE
CORRECT...THEN LIKELY POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY.
AT FIRST GLANCE A MAINLY QUIET WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IS MAIN
FEATURE OVER REGION. COULD BE RE-INFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE COME IN LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE INCREASE IN POPS DURING THAT TIME. KEPT CHANCY
POPS IN ALONG LK SUPERIOR WITH ADDED POTENTIAL FOR LK EFFECT AS H85
TEMPS DROP INTO THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. RECORD SETTING WARMTH OF MID
MARCH IN 2012 WILL BE BUT A DISTANT MEMORY COMPARED TO THE CHILL OF
THIS YEAR.
COOL AND ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
PROBABLY EVEN INTO LATER MARCH AS WELL. CERTAINLY NOT DONE WITH
WINTER YET. DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES FROM TROUGHING OVER
NORTHERN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS ACROSS ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH THEN DEEPENS ACROSS THE MIDDLE CONUS MONDAY AND
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESULTS WHICH DRAWS UP GULF MOISTURE AND COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
SNOW SOMEWHERE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...INCLUDING UPR
MICHIGAN. OVERALL THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH SFC
LOW...THOUGH LATEST RUN BACKED OFF WITH STRENGTH OF LOW. GFS IS MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. WPC...FORMALLY HPC...HAND DRAWN
PROGS BTWN THE TWO WITH LOW MOVING ACROSS LOWER LAKES AND UPR
MICHIGAN JUST ON THE FRINGE. CONSENSUS POPS ARE IN THE CHANCE RANGE
WHICH IS FINE AT THIS POINT. GIVEN NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOLER
AIR...INCREASED POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
EXPECT PREVAILING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF
LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG AS A LO PRES
TROF/AREA OF DEEPER MSTR CROSSES UPR MI AND BRINGS AT LEAST SEVERAL
HRS OF LK ENHANCED SHSN. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF
PASSAGE WL RESULT IN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO HI END MVFR OR EVEN VFR
LATE TNGT/WED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A TROF PASSAGE
THIS EVENING...EXPECT A N GALE UP TO 35 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF
NCENTRAL LAKE SUP MUCH OF TONIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT THRU WED...THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BACK TOWARD THE NW WITH APPROACH
OF HI PRES FROM THE W. WINDS OF LESS THAN 20 KTS PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH MAY GET GUSTY OVER 25 KTS BY THU NIGHT. COLD
FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
TRYING TO REACH 30 KTS. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KTS CONTINUE INTO FRI.
WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH REST OF WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-
003>005-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ243-244-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAD DEVELOPED THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITHIN AN AREA CYCLONIC
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW FLURRIES HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...WINDS GUSTING
30 TO 35 MPH HAS ALSO CREATED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OUT IN OPEN
RURAL AREAS. THIS WAS CREATING SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES...AS WELL
AS SOME SLICK ROADWAYS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING UNTIL THE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 5 TO 7 PM...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED FLURRIES COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IOWA FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEYOND THAT. CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE
DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE...HOWEVER AS
WITH PAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS...THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER
HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS...LINGERING IT MUCH LONGER THAN
OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THIS COULD ALSO AFFECT HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...AS SKIES CLEAR IN SOME AREAS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND PERHAPS EVEN CALM IN OUR WESTERN CWA. SOME CIRRUS COULD ALSO
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THESE SAME AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FINALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE SNOWFIELD, AND THE LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS COULD GENERATE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO IN OUR AREA AND MAYBE EVEN MEASURABLE PRECIP JUST
TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO DECENT WARMING ON THURSDAY...UPPER 40S OVER THE
DIMINISHING SNOW PACK...WHICH IS STILL UNDER MAV/MET GUIDANCE...
TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE SNOW FREE AREAS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS FRIDAY
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S WHERE SOME SNOW STILL EXISTS...AND EVEN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
DEWALD
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WEATHER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPECIFIC TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEMS...THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PINNING DOWN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE
AND TIMING. A WEAK WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHER
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS LINGERS IT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH SNOW...SLEET...AND RAIN POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE EC IS STRONGER
WITH THE WAVE...FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIP AND MOVES IT THROUGH
FASTER WITH MORE COLD AIR AND STRONGER WINDS AVAILABLE. FOR NOW HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW MENTIONED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA...WITH KLNK ON THE EDGE.
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT ALL THREE SITES.
KERN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
202 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
TODAY AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MID-
MARCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LINGERING
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 111 PM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
CHANGES MADE FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY WITH CONTINUED BREEZY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING (50F AT BTV AT 11Z)...THEN LESS WIND
THIS AFTN. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS IN PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER SLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SLOW- MOVING OCCLUSION NOW ACROSS W-CENTRAL
NY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS PW PLUME OF 0.9 TO 1.0" PRECEDING THE
FRONT ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS VT THIS
AFTN. NOTED OVERALL MODEST INCREASE IN QPF PER 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE...ESPECIALLY AS SECONDARY WAVE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
OCCLUSION THIS AFTN AND TRACKS NNEWD ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTN. ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA THIS
AFTN BASED ON POSSIBLE 0.5-0.6" RAINFALL IN 6 HR PERIOD.
THIS INCREASE IN RAINFALL AMTS -- COMBINED WITH 3-DAYS OF TEMPS
WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW MELT -- HAS WARRANTED
ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WATCH FOR ROUGHLY SRN HALF OF THE CWA. ISSUED
WATCH FOR THOSE COUNTIES WHERE BASIN-AVERAGED STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1"...WHICH INCLUDES ESSEX COUNTY
NY AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT EWD TO CALEDONIA COUNTY AND POINTS
SOUTH. RIVER FLOODING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MINOR
CATEGORY...BUT WITH ADDED UNCERTAINTY OF BREAK-UP/MOVING RIVER
ICE...THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED GREATER FLOODING
THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SMALLER STEMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
AREAWIDE MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
SOUTH WINDS STILL LOCALLY GUSTY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIR TRRN.
LOWER ELEVATION WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS RAINFALL
TENDS TO STABILIZE PBL AND P-GRADIENT FLATTENS THIS AFTN WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...SFC OCCLUSION SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
REGION AND LIKELY SHIFTS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND
00Z...AND THEN EAST OF THE CT RIVER BY 06Z. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE
COOLS ABRUPTLY...AND ANTICIPATE A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT CENTRAL VT
AND POINTS WEST...AND PERHAPS HANGING ON IN ERN VT AS LATE AS
09Z. SHOULD SEE A COATING TO AN INCH MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LOCALLY
UP TO 2" ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WAVE LOW DEEPENS TO THE
EAST ACROSS NRN NH/ME. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S...BUT A FEW COLDER READINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. A
FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY ACROSS NRN NY. TRAILING 500MB TROUGH KEEPS MID-LEVEL
FLOW S/SW ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AT THAT
POINT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. HAVE
GENERALLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S
TO LOWER 40S. WED NIGHT INTO THU AM...BETTER POTL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT...BUT BY THU MORNING LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN
INCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/CT/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BUT LOCALLY 2-4" IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH TEENS IN NRN NY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
BELOW AVG AND GENERALLY 28-32F...WITH MID 20S ACROSS NRN NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT MONDAY... FAIRLY GOOD CONGRUENCE EXISTS BETWEEN
00Z GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CLOSED UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT/DE-AMPLIFY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. A WEAK CLIPPER
MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO
APPEAR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING UPPER- LEVEL
ENERGY EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
SFC DEVELOPMENT.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LIKELY NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING TO
2". MDT-STG COLD ADVECTION WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -12C
WITH BELOW NORMAL LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT (UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE TEENS IN THE WARMER VALLEYS).
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING ALL CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE FOR
SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS BUT A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
RATHER COLD FOR MID- MARCH UNDER MDT- STG COLD ADVECTION (925MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -12 TO -14C).
FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL MONDAY WHERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF
CLOUDS THE FORECAST. NOTABLY...THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES WITH A SIGNIFICANT
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS OFFERS A
WEAKER/LESS PHASED SOLUTION. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. IF CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE
A FAIRLY MILD SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
CHANGES BUT WITH SPECIFIC DETAILS TO EVOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND PRODUCE RAIN AND VRB CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SURGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND ERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS FRONT
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST...SO WILL BACK EDGE OF PRECIP...WITH KMSS
EXPECTING DRY AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/VFR AROUND 02Z.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SW FLOW KEEPING MVFR CIGS OVER THE TAF
SITE. IN THE CPV...WINDS BEING CHANNELED UP THE VALLEY...HELPING
TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIP. EXPECT PRECIP TAPERING OFF IN CPV AFTER 04Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AT KMPV...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATE MORNING HRS. IN KRUT...SE WINDS AND VFR CIGS WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS AT TIMES MAINLY IN AREAS OF PRECIP LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING.
LLJ MOVING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE LLWS AND
OR GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. JET MOVES OUT OF ERN VT AROUND
00Z...AS WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BRIEFLY BECM LGT AND VRB...BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE W. WINDS WILL RECOVER OUT OF THE W-NW AT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT...MOST PERSISTENT AT
MPV/SLK WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOWERING CEILINGS 06-12Z
SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING IN
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM.
06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ007>012-018-019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
TODAY AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MID-
MARCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LINGERING
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 111 PM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
CHANGES MADE FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY WITH CONTINUED BREEZY AND MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING (50F AT BTV AT 11Z)...THEN LESS WIND
THIS AFTN. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS IN PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER SLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SLOW- MOVING OCCLUSION NOW ACROSS W-CENTRAL
NY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS PW PLUME OF 0.9 TO 1.0" PRECEDING THE
FRONT ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS VT THIS
AFTN. NOTED OVERALL MODEST INCREASE IN QPF PER 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE...ESPECIALLY AS SECONDARY WAVE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
OCCLUSION THIS AFTN AND TRACKS NNEWD ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTN. ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA THIS
AFTN BASED ON POSSIBLE 0.5-0.6" RAINFALL IN 6 HR PERIOD.
THIS INCREASE IN RAINFALL AMTS -- COMBINED WITH 3-DAYS OF TEMPS
WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW MELT -- HAS WARRANTED
ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WATCH FOR ROUGHLY SRN HALF OF THE CWA. ISSUED
WATCH FOR THOSE COUNTIES WHERE BASIN-AVERAGED STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1"...WHICH INCLUDES ESSEX COUNTY
NY AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT EWD TO CALEDONIA COUNTY AND POINTS
SOUTH. RIVER FLOODING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MINOR
CATEGORY...BUT WITH ADDED UNCERTAINTY OF BREAK-UP/MOVING RIVER
ICE...THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED GREATER FLOODING
THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SMALLER STEMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
AREAWIDE MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
SOUTH WINDS STILL LOCALLY GUSTY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIR TRRN.
LOWER ELEVATION WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS RAINFALL
TENDS TO STABILIZE PBL AND P-GRADIENT FLATTENS THIS AFTN WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT TUESDAY...SFC OCCLUSION SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
REGION AND LIKELY SHIFTS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND
00Z...AND THEN EAST OF THE CT RIVER BY 06Z. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE
COOLS ABRUPTLY...AND ANTICIPATE A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT CENTRAL VT
AND POINTS WEST...AND PERHAPS HANGING ON IN ERN VT AS LATE AS
09Z. SHOULD SEE A COATING TO AN INCH MOST LOCATIONS...BUT LOCALLY
UP TO 2" ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS WAVE LOW DEEPENS TO THE
EAST ACROSS NRN NH/ME. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S...BUT A FEW COLDER READINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. A
FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY ACROSS NRN NY. TRAILING 500MB TROUGH KEEPS MID-LEVEL
FLOW S/SW ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AT THAT
POINT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. HAVE
GENERALLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S
TO LOWER 40S. WED NIGHT INTO THU AM...BETTER POTL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT...BUT BY THU MORNING LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN
INCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/CT/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BUT LOCALLY 2-4" IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH TEENS IN NRN NY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
BELOW AVG AND GENERALLY 28-32F...WITH MID 20S ACROSS NRN NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT MONDAY... FAIRLY GOOD CONGRUENCE EXISTS BETWEEN
00Z GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CLOSED UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT/DE-AMPLIFY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. A WEAK CLIPPER
MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO
APPEAR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING UPPER- LEVEL
ENERGY EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
SFC DEVELOPMENT.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND LIKELY NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING TO
2". MDT-STG COLD ADVECTION WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -12C
WITH BELOW NORMAL LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT (UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE TEENS IN THE WARMER VALLEYS).
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING ALL CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE FOR
SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS BUT A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
RATHER COLD FOR MID- MARCH UNDER MDT- STG COLD ADVECTION (925MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -12 TO -14C).
FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL MONDAY WHERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF
CLOUDS THE FORECAST. NOTABLY...THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES WITH A SIGNIFICANT
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS STORM SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS OFFERS A
WEAKER/LESS PHASED SOLUTION. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. IF CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE
A FAIRLY MILD SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
CHANGES BUT WITH SPECIFIC DETAILS TO EVOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. GUSTS HAVE DROPPED
OFF SOME BUT EXPECT THE GUSTS TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. LLWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN A RISK FOR MOST OF THE
TAFS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
MAINLY 3-6SM AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ENHANCEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT JUST
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
LOWER VISIBILITIES AT RUT AND MPV. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18-23Z WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK. WIND SHIFT TO WEST WITH
DROPOFF IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
THOUGH VISIBILITIES IMPROVE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR/VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR/VFR DUE TO
LOWER CEILINGS AND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT...MOST PERSISTENT AT
MPV/SLK WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...LOWERING CEILINGS 06-12Z SATURDAY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ007>012-018-019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
345 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013
TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON A
DIFFICULT CLOUD FORECAST. A LARGE PART OF CURRENT CLOUD COVERAGE IS
DIURNALLY SUPPORTED AS BREAKS HAVE FILLED BACK IN DURING THE
DAY...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. RAP SOMEWHAT A JECKYLL AND HYDE OF LATE WHEN IT
COMES TO LOWER CLOUD PREDICTION...BUT GENERALLY SEEMS ON TRACK WITH
CURRENT CLOUDS. HAS A MUCH SLOWER CLEARING RATE FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT PROBABLY TOO MUCH SO WITH THE DEGREE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CLOUDS WHICH WILL ERODE QUICKLY WEST...AND TO SOME DEGREE IN THE FAR
EAST AS WELL...LEAVING A MORE PERSISTENT BAND DOWN THE MIDDLE TO
DISSIPATE MORE SLOWLY AND BUILD EAST. COMPLICATING TRENDS WILL BE
THE SLOW EASTWARD SHIFT IN SURFACE RIDGE...BRINGING LIGHT RETURN
FLOW TO AREAS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST LATER NIGHT...ALONG WITH
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IN
DEEPER SNOW AREAS NORTH AND EAST...BUT OVERALL TREND IN WINDS GOING
INTO THE EVENING WILL BE DOWN...AND EXPECT WILL NOT CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. MUCH OF CURRENT PRECIPITATION RESULT OF THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE FULLY LOSING A FLURRY THREAT WITH TEMPS IN CLOUD
LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF ICE PROCESS.
ON WEDNESDAY...DECENT COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAKER LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND SNOWCOVER EAST WILL
RESTRAIN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER PORTIONS OF GUIDANCE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S. MUCH WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE WEST...SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PLACE THE CWA RIGHT ALONG A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAKES FORECASTING HIGHS TRICKY. NOT
JUST SIMPLY DUE TO THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT BUT IF THURSDAY DOES
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH SOLAR RADIATION THE SNOW MAY NOT MELT AS MUCH AS
EXPECTED WHICH COULD INFLUENCE HIGHS ON THURSDAY. WILL PLAN ON SOME
MELTING TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A BIT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE MUCH OF
THAT AREA IS ALREADY SNOW FREE...ON THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THINGS.
SO WILL GO CLOSE TO 60 IN THESE LOCATIONS TAPERING OFF TO NEAR 40 IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BUT AGAIN...WITH THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH. THIS THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS A BIT
NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING BACK
SOUTHWARD AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL PUSH THIS
COLDER AIR SOUTH. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL RULE OUT THE GFS AND LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC AND NAM OUTPUT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT SEEM TO
HANDLE LOW LEVEL FEATURES OF SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH VERY WELL AS IT
TENDS TO COLLAPSE THE COLD AIR INTO THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WHILE THE
EC AND NAM TEND TO HANDLE THIS BETTER. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
FRIDAY SHOULD BE VERY MILD ...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER
WHICH WILL AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 WHILE 40 TO 45
SHOULD BE MORE COMMON IN THE NORTH. IN FACT IF THINGS ARE AS SLOW AS
THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE HIGHWAY
14 CORRIDOR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE FAIRLY STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF A MARGINALLY AGREED UPON FORECAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY MORNING WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TRY TO RETURN
CONDITIONS BACK TO NORMAL BUT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. OVERALL EACH OF THE
MODELS IS COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WOULD BE
SNOW WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING IN THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. COLDER AIR BURIES IN BEHIND THIS
WAVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AGAIN...SOME DECENT TIMING
DIFFERENCES SO CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SITES...REDEVELOPING A
SLIGHTLY LOWER STRATOCUMULUS LAYER WITH SURFACE BASED HEATING.
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY RAPID WEST TO EAST DISSIPATION OF CEILINGS
INTO JAMES VALLEY...AND SLOWING A BIT HEADING EAST. CARRIED LESS
TEMPORAL MENTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SPOTTY MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AT TAF SITES...WITH INCREASINGLY
SCATTERED NATURE OF SNOW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN