Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/10/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
807 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS OVER NW AREAS OF THE CWA.
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM N TO S...STILL SOME HEAVY SNOW
SO F HGWY 50 OVR THE PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE SRN PLAINS ADVISORIES
OUT TIL 06-10Z. WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW FOR THE PALMER DVD WILL
ALLOW BZ WARNING TO CONTINUE THRU 06Z. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO BOOST POPS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH 06Z WITH ALL THE OTHER HEADLINES. DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
PALMER DIVIDE REALLY KILLING SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND
NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY. CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DOWN FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...BUT EASTERN PORTIONS
ARE STILL SEEING PERIODIC MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. OF
COURSE...CONDITIONS IN COLORADO SPRINGS LOOK MUCH BETTER...BUT
ITS HARD TO TAKE DOWN THE ADVISORY WITH ADVERSE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TO THE EAST OF ELLICOTT...SO WILL MAINTAIN FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. LATEST HRRR REALLY DIMINISHES PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY BY 03Z...SO WILL REVISIT HEADLINES AROUND THEN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 244 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE SNOW
ADVISORY. ACCUMS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH (2 - 4")...BUT THE
COMBO OF WINDS AND SNOW WILL MAKE FOR A HIGHER IMPACT EVENT. MOST
OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE ON GRASSY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
LEFT CURRENT HILITES AS ARE. GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION (N EL
PASO COUNTY). CDOT JUST CLOSED I-70 AND HIGHWAY 24 AROUND 145 PM.
LIKEWISE WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH 06Z. HEAVY SNOW THREAT HAS LESSENED BUT WIND IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND RECENT OBS SHOW THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY PICKING UP
ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS LATER THIS EVENING
WINDS WILL STILL STAY STRONG BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SNOW HAS DECREASED IN S EL PASO COUNTY IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS...BUT
FARTHER EAST SNOW STILL CONTINUES. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING THIS
REGION DUE TO THIS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE S PART OF THE
COUNTY.
OVERALL HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WET
MTNS AS OFF DUTY NWS MET REPORTING 8 INCHES AND IT IS STILL SNOWING
HEAVILY IN RYE...AND THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE RATON
MESA...(KIM REGION)...THESE FOLKS MAY COME IN WITH SOME DECENT SNOW
AMOUNTS AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS EVENT.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE EVENING...06Z-ISH
AND MOVE OUT OF THE ENTIRE STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FAR E PLAINS
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT BUT COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIF ACCUMS TO GRASSY AREAS.
FEW CG STRIKES NOTED ACROSS FAR SE CO AND ADDED THUNDER TO FCST.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY REGION-WIDE WITH COOL TEMPS AND
WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 50S...WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW USUALLY PRODUCES
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM NICELY AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO. HIGHS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
KALS...SNOW CONTINUES AT KALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWERED VIS AND
CIGS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 02Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KCOS...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING AT KCOS WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT BEING LOWERED CIGS. CIGS HAVE BEEN RUNNING MVFR TO IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS
HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG...NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN
INCH ON AREA RUNWAYS. BLOWING SNOW MAY REMAIN A PROBLEM THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KPUB...LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS HAVE BEEN RUNNING MVFR
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS..WINDS WILL BE STRONG
OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-
074-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ094>096-098-
099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073-075-
079-080.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
521 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 509 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO BOOST POPS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH 06Z WITH ALL THE OTHER HEADLINES. DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
PALMER DIVIDE REALLY KILLING SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND
NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY. CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DOWN FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...BUT EASTERN PORTIONS
ARE STILL SEEING PERIODIC MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. OF
COURSE...CONDITIONS IN COLORADO SPRINGS LOOK MUCH BETTER...BUT
ITS HARD TO TAKE DOWN THE ADVISORY WITH ADVERSE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TO THE EAST OF ELLICOTT...SO WILL MAINTAIN FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. LATEST HRRR REALLY DIMINISHES PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY BY 03Z...SO WILL REVISIT HEADLINES AROUND THEN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 244 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE SNOW
ADVISORY. ACCUMS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH (2 - 4")...BUT THE
COMBO OF WINDS AND SNOW WILL MAKE FOR A HIGHER IMPACT EVENT. MOST
OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE ON GRASSY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
LEFT CURRENT HILITES AS ARE. GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION (N EL
PASO COUNTY). CDOT JUST CLOSED I-70 AND HIGHWAY 24 AROUND 145 PM.
LIKEWISE WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH 06Z. HEAVY SNOW THREAT HAS LESSENED BUT WIND IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND RECENT OBS SHOW THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY PICKING UP
ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS LATER THIS EVENING
WINDS WILL STILL STAY STRONG BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SNOW HAS DECREASED IN S EL PASO COUNTY IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS...BUT
FARTHER EAST SNOW STILL CONTINUES. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING THIS
REGION DUE TO THIS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE S PART OF THE
COUNTY.
OVERALL HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WET
MTNS AS OFF DUTY NWS MET REPORTING 8 INCHES AND IT IS STILL SNOWING
HEAVILY IN RYE...AND THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE RATON
MESA...(KIM REGION)...THESE FOLKS MAY COME IN WITH SOME DECENT SNOW
AMOUNTS AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS EVENT.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE EVENING...06Z-ISH
AND MOVE OUT OF THE ENTIRE STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FAR E PLAINS
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT BUT COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIF ACCUMS TO GRASSY AREAS.
FEW CG STRIKES NOTED ACROSS FAR SE CO AND ADDED THUNDER TO FCST.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY REGION-WIDE WITH COOL TEMPS AND
WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 50S...WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW USUALLY PRODUCES
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM NICELY AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO. HIGHS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
KALS...SNOW CONTINUES AT KALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWERED VIS AND
CIGS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 02Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KCOS...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING AT KCOS WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT BEING LOWERED CIGS. CIGS HAVE BEEN RUNNING MVFR TO IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS
HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG...NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN
INCH ON AREA RUNWAYS. BLOWING SNOW MAY REMAIN A PROBLEM THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KPUB...LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS HAVE BEEN RUNNING MVFR
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS..WINDS WILL BE STRONG
OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ089-093>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ059-
061-063-067-072-074-076-078-085-087-088.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-079>082.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1040 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
I AMENDED THE BLIZZARD WARNING TEXT TO INDICATE THAT THE SNOW WILL
LIKELY START DURING THE 6 AM TO 8 AM TIME FRAME...AND THE WINDS
INITIALLY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. HOWEVER AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AND WILL BE GUSTING TO
BLIZZARD CRITERIA BY NOON-ISH. FWIW...RAW GFS WINDS AT 00Z SUNDAY SHOW
NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 42 KNOTS OVER NE EL PASO COUNTY. GIVEN
THIS...POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNED POWER
POLES/WIRES. THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR ABOUT 12-15
HOURS.
I ADDED EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY INTO THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
THIS WATCH IS IN EFFECT SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVR WRN CO THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. A THICK
BAND OF CLOUDS HAS ALSO MOVED UP OVR THE SERN CORNER OF THE
STATE...BUT THAT SHOULD PUSH EAST LATER THIS MORNING. BY EVENING THE
UPR LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVR THE CA AND AZ BORDER AREA.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 SHOWING PCPN HOLDING OFF OVR THE SWRN MTS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MORNING...BUT THEN WE SHOULD SEE PCPN ALL ALONG THE
CONTDVD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT TO LIKELY POPS SPREADING OVR MUCH
OF THE ERN MTS AS WELL AND OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND MAINLY
ISOLD CHANCE FOR RAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
NAM IS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPES OVR THE MTS AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM OVR THE
FORECAST AREA. WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MTS SHOULD BE THE AREA THAT RECEIVES THE HEAVIEST SNOW...WITH THE
REST OF THE CONTDVD SEEING SNOW...BUT NOT AS MUCH. DURING THE
AFTERNOON SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVR
THE FAR SERN CORNER OF THE STATE WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. MIN RH
VALUES IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE NR 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER FUELS
IN THIS AREA ARE NOT CONSIDERED TO BE CRITICAL. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WX ADVISORY FOR ZONE 67 AS WELL AND WL START IT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WL LIKELY BE TOO WARM
TO SEE SNOW OR AT LEAST ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL TEMPS COOL
TOWARD EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BY 12Z SAT THE UPR LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SW CORNER
OF CO. AS THIS OCCURS OVERNIGHT A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...AND SHOULD SEE DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SERN MTS. AT THE SAME TIME SNOW WL CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTDVD WITH THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS STILL BEING THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATION FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
...QUICK MOVING STORM TO BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE AREA
SATURDAY...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
A POTENT UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING
LIFTING OUT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AND INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM KEEPS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CONTDVD
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE EASTERN MTS
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLASTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL IN QUESTION ACROSS THE PLAINS
THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRECIP RAPIDLY CHANGING OVER THE
SNOW AOA 6K FT SATURDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 4K FT UNDER
THE HEAVIER BANDS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH 4-9 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO UPGRADED TELLER
COUNTY AND THE RAMPART RANGE TO WINTER STORM WARNING WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES AND HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR LAKE COUNTY...THE WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE BELOW 9000
FEET AND NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FEET. HAVE ALSO
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MTS
FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS STILL A BIT
HEAVY HANDED WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AS WELL AS UNDER
THE BANDS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADDITIONS TO ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AND KCOS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN
A THUNDERSTORM AT OR IN THE VCNTY. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
BUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME STRATUS OR BR TOWARD MORNING CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR
COZ059-063-076.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ066-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ081-
082.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1036 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVR WRN CO THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. A THICK
BAND OF CLOUDS HAS ALSO MOVED UP OVR THE SERN CORNER OF THE
STATE...BUT THAT SHOULD PUSH EAST LATER THIS MORNING. BY EVENING THE
UPR LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVR THE CA AND AZ BORDER AREA.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 SHOWING PCPN HOLDING OFF OVR THE SWRN MTS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MORNING...BUT THEN WE SHOULD SEE PCPN ALL ALONG THE
CONTDVD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT TO LIKELY POPS SPREADING OVR MUCH
OF THE ERN MTS AS WELL AND OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND MAINLY
ISOLD CHANCE FOR RAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
NAM IS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPES OVR THE MTS AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM OVR THE
FORECAST AREA. WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MTS SHOULD BE THE AREA THAT RECEIVES THE HEAVIEST SNOW...WITH THE
REST OF THE CONTDVD SEEING SNOW...BUT NOT AS MUCH. DURING THE
AFTERNOON SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVR
THE FAR SERN CORNER OF THE STATE WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. MIN RH
VALUES IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE NR 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER FUELS
IN THIS AREA ARE NOT CONSIDERED TO BE CRITICAL. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WX ADVISORY FOR ZONE 67 AS WELL AND WL START IT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WL LIKELY BE TOO WARM
TO SEE SNOW OR AT LEAST ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL TEMPS COOL
TOWARD EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BY 12Z SAT THE UPR LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SW CORNER
OF CO. AS THIS OCCURS OVERNIGHT A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...AND SHOULD SEE DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SERN MTS. AT THE SAME TIME SNOW WL CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTDVD WITH THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS STILL BEING THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATION FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
...QUICK MOVING STORM TO BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE AREA
SATURDAY...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
A POTENT UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING
LIFTING OUT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AND INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM KEEPS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CONTDVD
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE EASTERN MTS
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLASTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL IN QUESTION ACROSS THE PLAINS
THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRECIP RAPIDLY CHANGING OVER THE
SNOW AOA 6K FT SATURDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 4K FT UNDER
THE HEAVIER BANDS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH 4-9 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO UPGRADED TELLER
COUNTY AND THE RAMPART RANGE TO WINTER STORM WARNING WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES AND HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR LAKE COUNTY...THE WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE BELOW 9000
FEET AND NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FEET. HAVE ALSO
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MTS
FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS STILL A BIT
HEAVY HANDED WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AS WELL AS UNDER
THE BANDS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADDITIONS TO ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KALS AND KCOS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH IN BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 21Z FOR KALS
STARTING AROUND 00Z FOR KCOS. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR WITH MAIN
THREAT BEING GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
MAIN BRUNT OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 15Z-16Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A BRISK WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH GUSTING TO 35-40
KTS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL SPREAD IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR CIGS
AND EVEN PERIODS OF LIFR VIS WITH BLSN. WINDOW FOR BEST ACCUMULATING
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z SAT FOR KCOS AND THROUGH
23Z FOR KPUB...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
KCOS...AND GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES FOR
KPUB. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
BLSN POSSIBLE AT THE KCOS TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z. KALS MAY SEE A
QUICK SHOT FOR -SHSN AND VFR TO MVFR CIGS/VIS SAT AFTERNOON...JUST
OUTSIDE THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR
COZ059-063-076.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ066-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ081-
082.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ084.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
507 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVR WRN CO THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST. A THICK
BAND OF CLOUDS HAS ALSO MOVED UP OVR THE SERN CORNER OF THE
STATE...BUT THAT SHOULD PUSH EAST LATER THIS MORNING. BY EVENING THE
UPR LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVR THE CA AND AZ BORDER AREA.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 SHOWING PCPN HOLDING OFF OVR THE SWRN MTS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MORNING...BUT THEN WE SHOULD SEE PCPN ALL ALONG THE
CONTDVD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT TO LIKELY POPS SPREADING OVR MUCH
OF THE ERN MTS AS WELL AND OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND MAINLY
ISOLD CHANCE FOR RAIN OVR THE SERN PLAINS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
NAM IS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPES OVR THE MTS AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM OVR THE
FORECAST AREA. WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MTS SHOULD BE THE AREA THAT RECEIVES THE HEAVIEST SNOW...WITH THE
REST OF THE CONTDVD SEEING SNOW...BUT NOT AS MUCH. DURING THE
AFTERNOON SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVR
THE FAR SERN CORNER OF THE STATE WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. MIN RH
VALUES IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE NR 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER FUELS
IN THIS AREA ARE NOT CONSIDERED TO BE CRITICAL. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WX ADVISORY FOR ZONE 67 AS WELL AND WL START IT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WL LIKELY BE TOO WARM
TO SEE SNOW OR AT LEAST ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL TEMPS COOL
TOWARD EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BY 12Z SAT THE UPR LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SW CORNER
OF CO. AS THIS OCCURS OVERNIGHT A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...AND SHOULD SEE DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN OVR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SERN MTS. AT THE SAME TIME SNOW WL CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTDVD WITH THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS STILL BEING THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATION FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
...QUICK MOVING STORM TO BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE AREA
SATURDAY...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
A POTENT UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING
LIFTING OUT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT WHICH THEN
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AND INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM KEEPS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CONTDVD
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE EASTERN MTS
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLASTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL IN QUESTION ACROSS THE PLAINS
THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRECIP RAPIDLY CHANGING OVER THE
SNOW AOA 6K FT SATURDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 4K FT UNDER
THE HEAVIER BANDS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH 4-9 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO UPGRADED TELLER
COUNTY AND THE RAMPART RANGE TO WINTER STORM WARNING WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES AND HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR LAKE COUNTY...THE WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE BELOW 9000
FEET AND NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FEET. HAVE ALSO
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MTS
FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS STILL A BIT
HEAVY HANDED WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AS WELL AS UNDER
THE BANDS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADDITIONS TO ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AND KCOS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN
A THUNDERSTORM AT OR IN THE VCNTY. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
BUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME STRATUS OR BR TOWARD MORNING CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR
COZ059-063-076.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ072>075-079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ067.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ066-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ081-
082.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ084.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1054 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY...THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MONITORING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS DESCENDED UPON
MOST OF THE STATE OF CT FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESCEND INTO COASTAL CT AND
EVENTUALLY LONG ISLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. UPGRADED SRN
WESTCHESTER AND NORTHERN NASSAU...AS WELL AS MOST OF COASTAL
CT...TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS WHERE SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATED 6-8
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...WITH MORE TO FOLLOW WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO SEEING SOME SPOTTY 6
INCH TOTALS ACROSS PARTS OF NW SUFFOLK COUNTY...SNOW THERE HAS
LIGHTENED UP FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BAND NOW OVER CT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE AMTS OVER SUFFOLK SHOULD RANGE
FROM 4-8 INCHES...HAVE NOT UPGRADED TO A WARNING THERE MAINLY DUE
TO THE RELATIVELY LONG DURATION OF SNOWFALL.
ELSEWHERE...WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE ALREADY IN EFFECT WERE
EXTENDED A LITTLE LONGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NYC METRO
AND NE NJ...AND WERE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
WIND ADVISORY WINDS.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVG...
AROUND 40 IN NYC METRO...AND MID/UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL SUBSIDING OF WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED IN A MODERATING AIR MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVERHEAD BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE QUIET CONDITIONS...WITH A LIGHT FLOW AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
PUSHES TO THE EAST...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL APPROACH
WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WILL KEEP INCREASING THE WAA...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY HITTING THE
UPPER 50S AROUND THE NYC METRO AREA...AND LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING COULD BRING A SLIGHT
CHC OF RAIN. CAPPED POPS OFF AT HIGHER END CHC FOR MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUES WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT AND
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE
FRONT. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT
ACTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA. BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE ON THE SECONDARY LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT/TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS FURTHER TO THE
EAST WITH THE CENTER DIRECTLY OVER THE TRI STATE REGION AND A GOOD
12 HOURS SLOWER. SO WHILE THE TIMING OF THE PCPN IS STILL TO BE
DETERMINED...HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE TRACK OF EITHER SOLUTION
WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MIDWEEK WITH THE ECMWF DEEPENING AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFS RETURNS TO ALMOST
A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS TRENDING MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WITH SUCH
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEMSELVES EVEN...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR WED INTO THURS TO ACCOUNT FOR A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY DECREASING...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MIXED
PCPN...WITH POSSIBLY ALL SNOW WED NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PRESENT WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH VLIFR AT TIMES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
HEAVIER SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS THAT ARE OCCASIONALLY
MVFR BUT THINK THIS WILL BE QUITE LOCALIZED. SLOW IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER SNOWFALL AND MORE IN THE WAY
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND END TIME OF SNOWFALL WITH AMENDMENTS
LIKELY TO REFINE THIS TIMING AS WELL AS WHEN VLIFR BECOMES LIKELY.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF DRYING AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
AFTER 00Z.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION STAYING IN
THE 340-360 RANGE AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KT RANGE WITH THE PEAK GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING IN...INCREASING WINDS TO 45-50 KT AT 2KFT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING THE END
OF SNOW AS WELL AS LOWER CIGS AND VSBY...WHICH COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW WITH VLIFR POSSIBLE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING THE END
OF SNOW AS WELL AS LOWER CIGS AND VSBY...WHICH COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW WITH VLIFR POSSIBLE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING THE END
OF SNOW AS WELL AS LOWER CIGS AND VSBY...WHICH COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW WITH VLIFR POSSIBLE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING THE END
OF SNOW AS WELL AS LOWER CIGS AND VSBY...WHICH COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW WITH VLIFR POSSIBLE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING THE END
OF SNOW AS WELL AS LOWER CIGS AND VSBY...WHICH COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW WITH VLIFR POSSIBLE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING THE END
OF SNOW AS WELL AS LOWER CIGS AND VSBY...WHICH COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW WITH VLIFR POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR WITH DECREASING NORTH WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR...INCREASING S WINDS LATE IN THE DAY.
.TUE...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLIGHTLY TIGHTENS BETWEEN STATIONARY OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NY. GALES SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO SCA FROM W TO E THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW SCA ON SAT. LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS
WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS HIGH ON THE OCEAN INTO SAT...10-15 FT.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS DECREASE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
MONDAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SCA LEVELS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW
MIDWEEK...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF GALES ON THE OCEAN WATERS. BUT
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF OCCURRING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT THROUGH FRI IS FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM AROUND ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RESIDUAL SURGE OF 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2 FT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNING HIGH TIDES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE COAST.
FOR THE LOWER HIGH TIDE THIS AFT/EVE WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY ONLY
TOUCH MINOR LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI...TWIN FORKS
AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL LI SOUND...INCLUDING THE NORTH SHORE OF LI.
MODERATE BEACH EROSION ISSUES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR
OCEAN FACING BEACHES AND TWIN FORKS OF LI WITH BREAKERS BETWEEN 7
TO 11 FT...HIGHEST EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...FURTHER INCREASES IN ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE TIME OF THE NEW MOON WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVERALL TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING FOR BAY LOCATIONS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ005>011.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ078>081.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ072>075-176-178-179.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ071-
177.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-
004-103.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ006-104>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC/SEARS
AVIATION...GC/JM
MARINE...SEARS/NV
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
949 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY...THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MONITORING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS DESCENDED UPON
MOST OF THE STATE OF CT FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESCEND INTO COASTAL CT AND
EVENTUALLY LONG ISLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. UPGRADED SRN
WESTCHESTER AND NORTHERN NASSAU...AS WELL AS MOST OF COASTAL
CT...TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS WHERE SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATED 6-8
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...WITH MORE TO FOLLOW WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO SEEING SOME SPOTTY 6
INCH TOTALS ACROSS PARTS OF NW SUFFOLK COUNTY...SNOW THERE HAS
LIGHTENED UP FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BAND NOW OVER CT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE AMTS OVER SUFFOLK SHOULD RANGE
FROM 4-8 INCHES...HAVE NOT UPGRADED TO A WARNING THERE MAINLY DUE
TO THE RELATIVELY LONG DURATION OF SNOWFALL.
ELSEWHERE...WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE ALREADY IN EFFECT WERE
EXTENDED A LITTLE LONGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NYC METRO
AND NE NJ...AND WERE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
WIND ADVISORY WINDS.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVG...
AROUND 40 IN NYC METRO...AND MID/UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL SUBSIDING OF WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED IN A MODERATING AIR MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVERHEAD BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE QUIET CONDITIONS...WITH A LIGHT FLOW AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
PUSHES TO THE EAST...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL APPROACH
WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WILL KEEP INCREASING THE WAA...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY HITTING THE
UPPER 50S AROUND THE NYC METRO AREA...AND LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING COULD BRING A SLIGHT
CHC OF RAIN. CAPPED POPS OFF AT HIGHER END CHC FOR MONDAY AFTN INTO
TUES WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT AND
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE
FRONT. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT
ACTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA. BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE ON THE SECONDARY LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT/TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS FURTHER TO THE
EAST WITH THE CENTER DIRECTLY OVER THE TRI STATE REGION AND A GOOD
12 HOURS SLOWER. SO WHILE THE TIMING OF THE PCPN IS STILL TO BE
DETERMINED...HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE TRACK OF EITHER SOLUTION
WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MIDWEEK WITH THE ECMWF DEEPENING AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFS RETURNS TO ALMOST
A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS TRENDING MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WITH SUCH
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEMSELVES EVEN...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR WED INTO THURS TO ACCOUNT FOR A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...SO TEMPS REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY DECREASING...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MIXED
PCPN...WITH POSSIBLY ALL SNOW WED NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE END OF SNOW FROM EAST TO WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY WILL CONT UNTIL 15Z-18Z AS SNOW MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE REGION.
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS TO IFR AND VSBY
TO LIFR UNTIL 16Z FROM THE NYC METRO AREA EAST INCLUDING AT KJFK AND
KLGA.
CIGS AND VSBY WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFT 18Z...BECOMING VFR BY 21Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...
N TO NW WINDS FROM 330-350 DEG WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND PEAK FROM
15Z TO 21Z...REACHING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT FROM NYC EAST WITH
GUSTS OF 30-34 KT. WEST OF NYC INCLUDING KEWR...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.
N TO NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFT SUNSET BECOMING 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE END OF SNOW WITH LOWER CIGS AND
VSBY COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE END OF SNOW WITH LOWER CIGS AND
VSBY COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE END OF SNOW WITH LOWER CIGS AND
VSBY COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE END OF SNOW WITH LOWER CIGS AND
VSBY COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE END OF SNOW WITH LOWER CIGS AND
VSBY COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE END OF SNOW WITH LOWER CIGS AND
VSBY COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR WITH DECREASING NORTH WINDS.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR...INCREASING S WINDS LATE IN THE DAY.
.TUE...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLIGHTLY TIGHTENS BETWEEN STATIONARY OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NY. GALES SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO SCA FROM W TO E THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW SCA ON SAT. LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS
WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS HIGH ON THE OCEAN INTO SAT...10-15 FT.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 5 FT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS DECREASE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
MONDAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SCA LEVELS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW
MIDWEEK...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF GALES ON THE OCEAN WATERS. BUT
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF OCCURRING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT THROUGH FRI IS FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM AROUND ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RESIDUAL SURGE OF 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2 FT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNING HIGH TIDES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE COAST.
FOR THE LOWER HIGH TIDE THIS AFT/EVE WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY ONLY
TOUCH MINOR LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI...TWIN FORKS
AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL LI SOUND...INCLUDING THE NORTH SHORE OF LI.
MODERATE BEACH EROSION ISSUES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR
OCEAN FACING BEACHES AND TWIN FORKS OF LI WITH BREAKERS BETWEEN 7
TO 11 FT...HIGHEST EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...FURTHER INCREASES IN ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE TIME OF THE NEW MOON WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVERALL TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING FOR BAY LOCATIONS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ009>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ005>011.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ078>081.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
073-078-079-081-176-177.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ072>075-176-178-179.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ071-
177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ080-
179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-
004-103.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ006-104>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC/SEARS
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...SEARS/NV
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
725 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE...MAINLY TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS. MODELS
HAVING A LITTLE DIFFICULTY GETTING THE RIGHT LOCATION OF 700 TO 500
MB LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH
AND A LITTLE EAST. HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR RETURNS
THE GFS AND RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION. WHAT IS
CONCERNING ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE RUC AND GFS BULLSEYE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. THE
OTHER MODEL OUTPUT EVEN THOUGH NOT QUITE RIGHT ON THE LOW LOCATION
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.
00Z SOUNDINGS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WOULD SUPPORT A VERY GOOD
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LIFT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A PERIOD OF UP TO
SIX HOURS OF RATHER INTENSE SNOWFALL. GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE REASONING
AND WHAT I AM SEEING ON RADAR...RAISED THE QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
PER A BLEND OF REALITY...RUC AND GFS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. SO NOW THERE IS WIDESPREAD 4 TO 7 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY NOT HAVE THE WINDS
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH. PROFILERS ARE SHOWING 50 KNOTS NOT TOO FAR
OFF THE SURFACE BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WHETHER THIS WORKS OUT OR NOT STILL LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. DID RAISE THE WINDS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING AND EXTENDED THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW A LITTLE
LONGER. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING A LITTLE LONGER. THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK
AT THAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH A CLOSED CENTER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. H7 TROUGH AXIS
ALONG KS/CO BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
DEFORMATION BAND JUST WEST OF H7 TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN EASTERN
COLORADO EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY SLOT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
EXTENT OF CWA.
AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF OUR CWA IN
RESPONSE TO VERY MOIST BL AND STRONG WAA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SURFACE TD HAVE ALREADY BEEN DECREASING AT NORTON AND HILL
CITY...SO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DECREASING FOR OUR
AREA. WE COULD STILL SEE A WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
OUR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST...SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH 00Z
FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF SNOW BAND TONIGHT
THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS THIS BAND MOVING EAST AND
PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 7 INCHES ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST...AND LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A
QUICK RAIN/SNOW CHANGE OVER IN THE WEST...WITH CHANGEOVER THIS
EVENING IN THE EAST WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN PLACE.
UPSTREAM OBS ALREADY SHOW LIGHT SNOW IN YUMA COUNTY...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST TIMING. THE DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
06Z AS LARGE SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO PULL EAST...AND DRY AIR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY INDICATE THAT THIS SNOW BAND WILL
HOLD TOGETHER IF NOT INTENSIFY AFTER 06Z WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS BY AS
MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST. WITH RUC/NAM/GFS ALL
SHOWING INSTABILITY WITHIN 700-500MB LAYER WITH THIS BAND...THERE
MAY BE A CONNECTIVE COMPONENT THAT COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN LINE WITH THESE HIGHER TOTALS...HOWEVER IT IS HARD TO
GAUGE WHERE THIS WILL SET UP AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. I ALSO
THINK THE WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE BANDING WILL BE DURING THE EVENING
RATHER THAN AFTER 06Z...SINCE MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING A
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AS DRY/STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW
BEHIND THIS BAND. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MELTING WHICH COULD EAT INTO OUR SNOW AMOUNTS EARLY ON...HOWEVER AS
SNOWFALL INTENSIFIES AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP WE SHOULD START
TO OVERCOME THIS.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING STRONG H85 JET DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM WOULD INDICATE A SMALLER WINDOW FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS UP NORTH...HOWEVER IT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT UP NORTH...AND GUSTS 40-50MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
I DECIDED AGAINST MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO FORECAST OR
BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO DETAILS AND
RAIN/SNOW TIMING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WE MAY NEED TO MAKE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS THIS BAND STARTS MOVING EAST AND WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON HOW QUICKLY IT WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE STORM THAT IS AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL
BE HEADING OUT OF THE PLAINS REGION AND WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
MORNING AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE THAT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK BECOMES A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE PLAINS
STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE RIDGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS OVER THE WEST COAST DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. BY NEXT SATURDAY...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION SEEMS TO STILL BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE WITH A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN UNDERWAY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
THAT TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME WIND EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE BENIGN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 446 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETEORIATE AT KGLD AND NOT TOO FAR WEST OF
KMCK AS WINTER STORM BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO LIFR OR LOWER AND NOT IMPROVE UNTIL
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...IMPROVING LAST AT KMCK. MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WILL NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
452 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH A CLOSED CENTER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. H7 TROUGH AXIS
ALONG KS/CO BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
DEFORMATION BAND JUST WEST OF H7 TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN EASTERN
COLORADO EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY SLOT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
EXTENT OF CWA.
AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF OUR CWA IN
RESPONSE TO VERY MOIST BL AND STRONG WAA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SURFACE TD HAVE ALREADY BEEN DECREASING AT NORTON AND HILL
CITY...SO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DECREASING FOR OUR
AREA. WE COULD STILL SEE A WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
OUR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST...SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH 00Z
FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF SNOW BAND TONIGHT
THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS THIS BAND MOVING EAST AND
PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 7 INCHES ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST...AND LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A
QUICK RAIN/SNOW CHANGE OVER IN THE WEST...WITH CHANGEOVER THIS
EVENING IN THE EAST WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN PLACE.
UPSTREAM OBS ALREADY SHOW LIGHT SNOW IN YUMA COUNTY...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST TIMING. THE DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
06Z AS LARGE SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO PULL EAST...AND DRY AIR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY INDICATE THAT THIS SNOW BAND WILL
HOLD TOGETHER IF NOT INTENSIFY AFTER 06Z WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS BY AS
MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST. WITH RUC/NAM/GFS ALL
SHOWING INSTABILITY WITHIN 700-500MB LAYER WITH THIS BAND...THERE
MAY BE A CONNECTIVE COMPONENT THAT COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN LINE WITH THESE HIGHER TOTALS...HOWEVER IT IS HARD TO
GAUGE WHERE THIS WILL SET UP AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. I ALSO
THINK THE WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE BANDING WILL BE DURING THE EVENING
RATHER THAN AFTER 06Z...SINCE MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING A
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AS DRY/STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW
BEHIND THIS BAND. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MELTING WHICH COULD EAT INTO OUR SNOW AMOUNTS EARLY ON...HOWEVER AS
SNOWFALL INTENSIFIES AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP WE SHOULD START
TO OVERCOME THIS.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING STRONG H85 JET DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM WOULD INDICATE A SMALLER WINDOW FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS UP NORTH...HOWEVER IT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT UP NORTH...AND GUSTS 40-50MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
I DECIDED AGAINST MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO FORECAST OR
BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO DETAILS AND
RAIN/SNOW TIMING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WE MAY NEED TO MAKE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS THIS BAND STARTS MOVING EAST AND WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON HOW QUICKLY IT WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE STORM THAT IS AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL
BE HEADING OUT OF THE PLAINS REGION AND WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
MORNING AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE THAT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK BECOMES A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE PLAINS
STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE RIDGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS OVER THE WEST COAST DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. BY NEXT SATURDAY...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION SEEMS TO STILL BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE WITH A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN UNDERWAY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
THAT TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME WIND EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE BENIGN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 446 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETEORIATE AT KGLD AND NOT TOO FAR WEST OF
KMCK AS WINTER STORM BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO LIFR OR LOWER AND NOT IMPROVE UNTIL
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...IMPROVING LAST AT KMCK. MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WILL NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ001-
013-027.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-041-042.
CO...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ079-
080.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1202 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
09Z RAP ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TAKING FORM ACROSS THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITS
OVER SE COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A STRONG
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE MID/UPPER WINDS WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH CENTER. WITHIN THIS MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE IMPETUS
BEHIND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH TAKES FORM THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
A BIT STRONGER ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXPECT S/SE WINDS TO EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
TRANSPORT WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE MID 40S BY LATE TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC CHARTS
SHOW A STRONG ISENTROPIC COMPONENT WITHIN THE S/SE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO
HIGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF MID LEVEL ENERGY HANGING OFF TO THE WEST THE MAIN
INFLUENCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT PRECIP WILL BE THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
COMPONENT. FORECAST SOUNDING CORROBORATE WHAT THE ISENTROPIC
SURFACES SUGGEST...WHICH IS THAT THE COLUMN WILL HAVE SOME DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY IT WILL
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND PRECIP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIP
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLUMN
BECOMES COMPLETELY SATURATED.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE EXTRA LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES...CAUSING
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN TO OCCUR THROUGH MID DAY ON SATURDAY. ALONG
WITH THE BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ELEVATED STEEP LAPSE
RATES...MAKING ELEVATED CAPE LEVELS APPROACH 500 J/KG. AS A RESULT
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VIGOROUS THE MODEST CAPE ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 SHEAR IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
PERHAPS A SEVERE HAIL REPORT OR TWO SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE EAST MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF A DRY SLOT OF MID LEVEL AIR CUTTING OFF THE
EFFICIENT PRECIP PROCESSES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL
LIKELY SPELL AN END TO THE MODERATE PRECIP...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROWAL FORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GIVEN
THAT THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A WET GROUND FROM THE SATURDAY
RAINFALL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE TOUGH TO COME BY. PERHAPS A
DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...BUT EXPECT PAVED SURFACES TO STAY WET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW
PACKED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ENDING ALL PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES.
QPF FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT CONSERVATIVE AS MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE PRECIP AMOUNT IN RECENT SYSTEMS. ON THE LOWER END THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PRODUCING A QUARTER INCH OF
PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED AREAS GETTING
A FULL INCH. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY GET SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THOSE TWO
VALUES IN LIQUID PRECIP BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA
AND TO THE EAST. THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BRING A COOL DOWN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RECOMMENCES...BRINGING
WARM/MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. FOR A FEW DAYS NOW MODELS HAVE
SHOWN THAT THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL...BUT NOTICEABLE WARM UP. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO THE
WEST...GRADUALLY CREEPING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND MOSTLY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TO BRING
ABOVE SEASONALLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. VCTS EXPECTED AFTER
00Z WITH VFR CIGS THEN EXPECT MORE COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY. WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AROUND 12 TO 14 KTS. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.
53
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
527 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
09Z RAP ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TAKING FORM ACROSS THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITS
OVER SE COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A STRONG
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE MID/UPPER WINDS WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH CENTER. WITHIN THIS MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE IMPETUS
BEHIND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH TAKES FORM THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
A BIT STRONGER ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXPECT S/SE WINDS TO EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
TRANSPORT WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE MID 40S BY LATE TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC CHARTS
SHOW A STRONG ISENTROPIC COMPONENT WITHIN THE S/SE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO
HIGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF MID LEVEL ENERGY HANGING OFF TO THE WEST THE MAIN
INFLUENCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT PRECIP WILL BE THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
COMPONENT. FORECAST SOUNDING CORROBORATE WHAT THE ISENTROPIC
SURFACES SUGGEST...WHICH IS THAT THE COLUMN WILL HAVE SOME DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY IT WILL
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND PRECIP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIP
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLUMN
BECOMES COMPLETELY SATURATED.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE EXTRA LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES...CAUSING
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN TO OCCUR THROUGH MID DAY ON SATURDAY. ALONG
WITH THE BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ELEVATED STEEP LAPSE
RATES...MAKING ELEVATED CAPE LEVELS APPROACH 500 J/KG. AS A RESULT
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VIGOROUS THE MODEST CAPE ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 SHEAR IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
PERHAPS A SEVERE HAIL REPORT OR TWO SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE EAST MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF A DRY SLOT OF MID LEVEL AIR CUTTING OFF THE
EFFICIENT PRECIP PROCESSES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL
LIKELY SPELL AN END TO THE MODERATE PRECIP...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROWAL FORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GIVEN
THAT THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A WET GROUND FROM THE SATURDAY
RAINFALL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE TOUGH TO COME BY. PERHAPS A
DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...BUT EXPECT PAVED SURFACES TO STAY WET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW
PACKED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ENDING ALL PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES.
QPF FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT CONSERVATIVE AS MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE PRECIP AMOUNT IN RECENT SYSTEMS. ON THE LOWER END THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PRODUCING A QUARTER INCH OF
PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED AREAS GETTING
A FULL INCH. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY GET SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THOSE TWO
VALUES IN LIQUID PRECIP BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA
AND TO THE EAST. THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BRING A COOL DOWN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RECOMMENCES...BRINGING
WARM/MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. FOR A FEW DAYS NOW MODELS HAVE
SHOWN THAT THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL...BUT NOTICEABLE WARM UP. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO THE
WEST...GRADUALLY CREEPING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND MOSTLY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TO BRING
ABOVE SEASONALLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JL
&&
.AVIATION...
LLWS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND MIX OUT
AROUND 14Z. CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH VICINITY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PREVAILING TS BEST CHANCE OF MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 67
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
413 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
09Z RAP ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TAKING FORM ACROSS THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITS
OVER SE COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A STRONG
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE MID/UPPER WINDS WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH CENTER. WITHIN THIS MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE IMPETUS
BEHIND RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH TAKES FORM THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
A BIT STRONGER ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXPECT S/SE WINDS TO EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
TRANSPORT WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE MID 40S BY LATE TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC CHARTS
SHOW A STRONG ISENTROPIC COMPONENT WITHIN THE S/SE LOW AND MID LEVEL
WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO
HIGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF MID LEVEL ENERGY HANGING OFF TO THE WEST THE MAIN
INFLUENCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT PRECIP WILL BE THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
COMPONENT. FORECAST SOUNDING CORROBORATE WHAT THE ISENTROPIC
SURFACES SUGGEST...WHICH IS THAT THE COLUMN WILL HAVE SOME DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY IT WILL
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND PRECIP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIP
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLUMN
BECOMES COMPLETELY SATURATED.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE EXTRA LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES...CAUSING
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN TO OCCUR THROUGH MID DAY ON SATURDAY. ALONG
WITH THE BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ELEVATED STEEP LAPSE
RATES...MAKING ELEVATED CAPE LEVELS APPROACH 500 J/KG. AS A RESULT
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VIGOROUS THE MODEST CAPE ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 SHEAR IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
PERHAPS A SEVERE HAIL REPORT OR TWO SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE EAST MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF A DRY SLOT OF MID LEVEL AIR CUTTING OFF THE
EFFICIENT PRECIP PROCESSES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL
LIKELY SPELL AN END TO THE MODERATE PRECIP...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROWAL FORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GIVEN
THAT THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A WET GROUND FROM THE SATURDAY
RAINFALL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE TOUGH TO COME BY. PERHAPS A
DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES...BUT EXPECT PAVED SURFACES TO STAY WET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW
PACKED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ENDING ALL PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES.
QPF FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT CONSERVATIVE AS MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE PRECIP AMOUNT IN RECENT SYSTEMS. ON THE LOWER END THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM PRODUCING A QUARTER INCH OF
PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED AREAS GETTING
A FULL INCH. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY GET SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THOSE TWO
VALUES IN LIQUID PRECIP BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA
AND TO THE EAST. THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BRING A COOL DOWN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RECOMMENCES...BRINGING
WARM/MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. FOR A FEW DAYS NOW MODELS HAVE
SHOWN THAT THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL...BUT NOTICEABLE WARM UP. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO THE
WEST...GRADUALLY CREEPING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND MOSTLY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TO BRING
ABOVE SEASONALLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JL
&&
.AVIATION...
STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LIMITING CEILINGS LATER IN THIS
FORECAST...BUT APPEARS TOP AND FOE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
06Z. ENOUGH WINDS SAMPLED BY RADARS AND PROFILERS TO SUPPORT LLWS
MENTION TO START THIS FORECAST. CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
822 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
ADJUSTED DEW POINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. USED RAP MODEL AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THOSE PARAMETERS. EVERYTHING ELSE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. RADAR PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS NEAR THE OWB AREA BUT
WITH 20+ DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES. LATEST NAM/WRF STILL SUPPORTS PREVIOUS TIMING OF MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE
PARENT UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENING A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE VERY WEAK
BUT K INDICES SHOW SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. BASED ON
SOUNDINGS...CRITICAL THICKNESSES ETC THERE COULD BE A
SPRINKLE/FLURRY MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS BEFORE ENDING
MONDAY MORNING. A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...THEN MODERATE
BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
IN GENERAL...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SHOW HEIGHT FALLS/TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN U.S....WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
COUNTRY`S MID SECTION. THE PAH FA WILL THEREFORE BE MAINLY EAST OF
THE RIDGING AND WEST OF THE NEAREST TROFFING...WITH MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW AND WESTERLIES TO NORTHWESTERLIES AS THE PREDOMINANT
UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES
EAST OF THE MS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD THE NET RESULT OF
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
THAT BY DAY 7-8 COULD YIELD A SMALL POP. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED...WE`RE INCLINED TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A FEW RUNS TO
SEE IF IT`S REAL VS SOME FEEDBACK IN THE HEIGHT FALL/RISE PATTERN
THAT WILL BE ADJUSTING IN A MINOR WAY THRU TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...SERLY/SRLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...INCREASING IN VELOCITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY...GUSTING ABOVE 20 KTS EVERYWHERE.
TERMINALS IN THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION SUCH AS KCGI AND KPAH WILL
HAVE LOWERING CIGS THE EARLIEST...AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON THERE DUE TO RAINFALL.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1234 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
IN THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST RUC INDICATING UPPER LEVEL LOW A BIT FURTHER EAST AS IS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ENHANCED SAT SHOWING TWO SEPARATE BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WESTERN BAND OVER MY OHIO/N WV
COUNTIES IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AND THE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST IS
DOING THE SAME. MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING TO THE WEST WAS FLURRIES
WHILE THE SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST...WAS SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE INVERSIONS DROPPING QUICKLY AND
THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT. FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WHICH WILL LIMIT THE INFLUENCES FROM
THE LAKES AND UP-SLOPING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP POPS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES...AS THESE AREAS WILL BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
JUST MENTION FLURRIES.
BY 12Z...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE DURING THE POST DAWN
MORNING...WITH THE RIDGES EXPIRING LAST. OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WAA WILL COMMENCE.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE WARMER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW. THIS WARMER AIR
WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE AND ELIMINATE THE COLD POOL ALOFT. EXPECT TO
SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND COLD FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SATURDAY WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY UNDER WARM ADVECTION AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB
BRINGS TEMPERATURES OVER +5C...AND WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND MID 50S
SOUTH. MILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND WARMER SUNDAY IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 60 DEGREES MAY
BE REACHABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN PITTSBURGH BUT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
MAY TEMPER WARMING. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL WITH SOLNS FEATURING THE APPRCH OF AN
AMPLIFIED LOW PRES TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT LATE SUNDAY. HAVE THUS
PERSISTED WITH POP ESCALATION FM CHC TO LIKELY NMBRS ON SUNDAY NGT
AND MONDAY...AS WELL AS WITH EXPECTATIONS OF LOW PRES FORMING ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIKELY STALLING DECISIVE PASSAGE UNTIL TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...DIVERGENT SOLNS ARE EXHIBITED IN THE ECMWF AND GFS
COMPARISON WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER AMPLIFIED ERN NORTH
AMERICAN TROF...WHILE GFS FLATTENS THE FLOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK FAVORS THE COOLER ECMWF...AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDES ANY MAJOR ALTERATIONS TO THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT ROTATING AROUND COASTAL
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO HELP STRATO-CU HOLD IN OVERNIGHT. BEST
SUPPORT FOR -SHSN WANING AS SUGGESTED BY HRRR. BACK EDGE OF BEST
LOW LEVEL SUPPORT PUSHING ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
AFTERWARDS WITH -8C AT 850 MB AND NW FLOW WILL CARRY -SHSN WITH
5-6SM VSBY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN DROP OUT. WILL KEEP LOWER
STRATO-CU AROUND OVERNIGHT AND THEN RAISE CEILINGS IN MORNING WITH
STILL BKN035. WILL SCATTERED OUT FROM SW TO NE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND GO SKC FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THEM TO NORTHWEST 11-13KT G17KT ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO COASTAL SYSTEM`S SLOWNESS TO
PULL AWAY.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINANTS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
BY LATE SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. CLEARING EXPECTED LATER ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
437 PM EST FRI MAR 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EST FRI MAR 8 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW DOMINATING
NAMERICA. IN THE SRN STREAM...POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED
ONSHORE OVER SRN CA WHILE ANOTHER WAVE IS DROPPING S OVER WRN OR/NRN
CA. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE WX ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE COMING DAYS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN TROF...RIDGING IS
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. TO THE N...ONE SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THRU NRN
ONTARIO. ANOTHER WAVE IS DROPPING SE INTO ALBERTA ON THE PERIPHERY
OF POLAR VORTEX CENTERED JUST N OF HUDSON BAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE IN THE WX OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN THE COMING DAYS.
CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE ERN FCST AREA IN
SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI. HOWEVER...RECENTLY...ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
STRATOCU REMAINS...STREAMING ONSHORE IN SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...EARLY MARCH SUNSHINE IS DOING ITS JOB ON THE LOWER
ALBEDO FORESTED LAND OF THE U.P. TEMPS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE 40S AT A
NUMBER OF OBS SITES OVER WRN UPPER MI.
IN THE SHORT TERM...QUIET WX TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PCPN CHANCES SAT UNDER STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME AHEAD OF NRN STREAM
WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA/ND AND SRN STREAM WAVE
EMERGING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. TONIGHT...SRLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. THERE IS THE
USUAL CONCERN UNDER SRLY FLOW THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP. IN THIS
CASE...HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DRY AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AT
THE LOW-LEVELS AS TRAJECTORIES STILL HAVE SUFFICIENT COMPONENT
EMANATING FROM RETREATING HIGH PRES. SO...LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT REALLY
BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. IF ANY VERY LOW/SHALLOW STRATUS DOES DEVELOP...
IT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE AREAS WITH BEST UPSLOPING OVER CNTRL UPPER
MI. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EVENING...AND THEN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TYPICAL FOR
THIS TYPE OF INITIALLY RATHER WEAK SRLY FLOW...EXPECT LOWEST MINS
NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AS ICE COVER ENHANCES COOLING AND
STRENGTHENS NOCTURNAL INVERSION IN THAT AREA. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND
20F THERE.
ON SAT...UNDER STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT (295K SFC)...EXPECT
PCPN TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVENTUALLY
OVERCOME. TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME MAINTENANCE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE E EVEN AS FORCING AND RESULTING
PCPN ALOFT OVERSPREAD THAT AREA. SO...POPS WILL SHOW A GRADIENT FROM
CATEGORICAL W TO JUST CHC E LATE. IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THE E MAY
NOT SEE ANY PCPN SAT. AS FOR PTYPE...IT`S A CHALLENGE AS IT ALMOST
ALWAYS IS WHEN IT`S NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW OR WARM ENOUGH FOR
JUST RAIN. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL BATTLE BETWEEN STRONG WAA AND THE
COOLING IT GENERATES THRU ASCENT AS WELL AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING
EARLY ON. BELIEVE THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING EARLY ON WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AS THE PTYPE INITIALLY. THEREAFTER...FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILE GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND 0C IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...FLUCTUATING BASED ON ASCENT/PCPN INTENSITY. MEANWHILE...THE
NEAR SFC LAYER MAY RESPOND A LITTLE TO DAYTIME HEATING...PUSHING THE
ODDS TOWARD RAIN. AT THIS POINT...WILL INCLUDE SNOW AS THE GENERAL
PREVAILING PTYPE IN MOST AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN. INCLUDED FZRA
AS WELL WHERE TEMPS ARE AROUND FREEZING. IF THERE IS FZRA...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BEFORE SURFACES RESPOND
TO WEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WITH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE MID 30S...
WET/SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...MAYBE AROUND AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EST FRI MAR 8 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYOPTIC PATTERN WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND LITTLE PHASING
BETWEEN THE NRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO
AND THE NRN GREATLAKES AND THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM
THE PLAINS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE INFLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 285K-300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A PERIOD OF 700-600 MB FGEN SHOULD SUPPORT A
BAND OF PCPN THROUGH THE CWA...ESPECIALLY BTWN 00Z-06Z WITH QPF
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.25 INCH. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGHER THAT A
SIGNIFCANT (1C TO 3C) WARM LAYER WILL SPREAD THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA
GIVEN STRONG WAA WITH SW 40-45 KT 850 MB WINDS BY 00Z/SUN. GENERALLY
UTILIZED NAM/GEM LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE TO DELINEATE PCPN TYPE
PATTERN. WITH ENOUGH WARMTH LINGERING FROM DAYTIME HEATING...ANY SFC
COLD LAYER WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR FZRA.
SO...MAINLY RA/SN MIX EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES OVER
THE WEST HALF. WITH LOW SLR AOB 10/1...ANY WET SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.
SUNDAY...THERE WERE GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS THE GFS ALLOWS
ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND OF PCPN TO LIFT INTO UPPER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV. SINCE THE GLOBAL GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...THE FCST CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA OF
TAPERING OFF POPS/QPF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MAINLY JUST CHANCE POPS
BY AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MAY DEVELOP BUT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTING...ANY
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -12C TO -14C
ALONG WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW COULD STILL SUPPORT SOME
LES. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG 850-700 MB DRYING...ANY AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
TUE-FRI...MDLS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND SFC
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FAVORED
ECMWF REMAINED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE ERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH BY WED
WITH COLDER AIR AVAILABLE FOR SOME NW FLOW LES COMPARED TO THE THE
GFS. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS DROPS OFF BY THU-FRI WITH REGARD TO THE
POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING SNOW CHANCES
INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST FRI MAR 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW GIVEN
DRYNESS OF AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE KSAW AS UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING. RIGHT NOW...THAT APPEARS UNLIKELY...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF SHOULD BRING SOME
PCPN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX MID TO LATE MORNING SAT. TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX...BUT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AS PCPN BEGINS SHOULD LEAD TO PTYPE BEING SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EST FRI MAR 8 2013
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU SAT EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. TYPICAL FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW...STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...REACHING UPWARDS OF 30KT SAT
AFTN/EVENING. TROF WILL THEN PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SAT
NIGHT/SUN...BRINGING A SHIFT TO 20-30KT NW WINDS. WINDS WILL THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE SUN NIGHT/MON...FALLING TO UNDER 15KT FOR MON
NIGHT/TUE. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
244 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR SCENARIO TONIGHT AS THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY VARIABLE BASED
ON THERMAL PROFILES BELOW 70H.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TERMS OF THE EC THE
COOLEST...AND THE NAM/WRF THE WARMEST. THE GEM/GFS ARE SOMEWHAT
INBETWEEN. ALTHOUGH THE NAM/WRF REMAINS THE WARMEST AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN...THE GFS HAS COME A
BIT CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH MEANS MORE OF A SLEET/SNOW SCENARIO FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE N/NW FA. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE THERMAL
PROFILES...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN THE SAME AREAS
AS BEFORE.
IT STILL LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT THE FAR NW FA WILL SEE THE BULK
OF THE ICE/SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS AND WHETHER THE WARMER 85H TEMPS
MATERIALIZE. BEST TIME PERIOD FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR TOWARD
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE COMBINATION OF COOLER SFC TEMPS DURING
THE NIGHT...AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS DURING THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIPITATION. ONCE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...THE
SCENARIO GETS TRICKY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION AND LATENT
HEAT EFFECTS WITH THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION. SNOW COVER IS ANOTHER
ELEMENT WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING RAIN ON SURFACES...OTHER
THAN STREETS/ROADWAYS WHICH WOULD BE MORE WET DUE TO CHEMICALS AND
OTHER PROCESSES. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC WHICH
CAN LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET OR SNOW DEPENDING UPON THE
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL AREAL FLOODING AS THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 0.80 INCHES. THIS IS ROUGHLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. THE CURRENT ESF DOES
EXPLAIN THIS SCENARIO AND THE BEST LOCATION FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES...AND THE RAPID SNOWFALL MELT WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. DUE TO MORE CONSISTENCY OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
JET STREAMS NOT PHASING WITH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SYSTEM...WHICH
WAS A POSSIBILITY EARLIER...THE SCENARIO OF A BAND OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SE FA IS LESS LIKELY. THE BETTER POSSIBILITIES
OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR ACROSS IA/WI ON SUNDAY.
NO OTHER CHGS IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN
IS LESS ACTIVE...BUT SEASONABLY COOL FOR MID MARCH. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY RAPID WARM-UP UNTIL THE SNOW COVER IS GONE AND THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE SW. ..JLT..
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FIRST CHANGE MADE TO 6Z TAFS WAS TO REMOVE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON TAKING MVFR
CIGS OVER ERN NODAK DUE EAST ACROSS NRN MN...WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR AXN/STC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS STRATUS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF OTHER TERMINALS. INCREASING MOISTURE ON SE SFC WINDS HAS
RESULTED IN BLOSSOMING OF MVFR BR ACROSS NRN IA/SRN MN...AND DO
EXPECT SIMILAR VSBY TO IMPACT RWF...THOUGH EXPECT INCREASED WINDS
TONIGHT TO KEEP VSBY NO WORSE THAN IFR. AFTER THAT...LOTS OF
ACTION JAMMED INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A WALL OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COMES NE INTO THE AREA ON A STRONG LLJ. GFS LOOKED TO
ROBUST WITH MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SO FAVORED END OF
TAFS HEAVILY TOWARD A NAM/SREF TIMING. AS FOR P-TYPE...TEMPS LOOK
TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT STC/AXN...SO WENT WITH FZRA FOR THEM.
RWF/MSP WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. BASED ON NAM
AND SREF P-TYPE PLUMES...EXPECT PREDOMINATE TYPE TO BE RA AT BOTH
LOCATIONS...THOUGH LEFT A PROB30 FZRA IN AT MSP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST PARAMETERS THROUGH 00Z. ABOUT
THE ONLY THING THAT MAY DIFFER FROM CURRENT TAF IS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME MVFR BR/HZ IN THE MORNING. AT THE END OF THE
TAF...SOUNDINGS SAY WHATEVER FALLS AT THE FIELD WILL BE
LIQUID...WITH THE KEY BEING SFC TEMP. PROBABILITIES FAVOR TEMPS
BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR RA...BUT EVEN SO...4 MEMBERS OF THE SREF DO
SHOW A FEW HOURS OF FZRA SAT MORNING...SO LEFT THE PROB30 GROUP
FOR -FZRA TO GO WITH THE PREVAILING -RA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...IFR AND RAIN. LIFR AND -FZRA POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. WINDS
E AT 10KTS.
SUN...MVFR OR LOWER WITH -SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS N AT 15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BENTON-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
SHERBURNE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JLT/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013
.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 419 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013/
TONIGHT...THE MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECTS ON TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL. HIGH
CLOUDS CURRENTLY STREAMING OVERHEAD...WITH A BANK OF STRATUS
LURKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD EXTENDING INTO ND. 1000-850MB RH
FROM THE NAM DEPICTS THE STRATUS PRETTY WELL...AND LEANED ON ITS
FCST PRETTY HEAVILY FOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT ACROSS W WI LATER TONIGHT LEADING TO POTENTIAL
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY FOG SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED AS
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT KEEPING THE BL WELL-MIXED.
WITH A PERSISTENT SE WIND, CLOUD COVER...AND THE BEGINNINGS OF
WARM ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT (MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S).
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT WELL E OF THE AREA
DURG THE DAY ON FRI WHILE A LONGWAVE RIDGE GLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WARMING
OVER THE AREA...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT WILL
BE THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF
AND MAKING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF REFREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT DROP BACK TO THE FREEZING MARK. AS FOR SENSIBLE WX
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE E
FRI NIGHT WHILE A LARGE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA OF
LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BECOME PICKED UP
BY THE LARGE TROUGH...NUDGING IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT THEN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL STEADILY SPREAD
NE INTO THE REGION FRI EVE ALONG THE WMFNT OF THE ROCKIES LOW PRES
CENTER. SIGNIFICANT LIFT FROM NOT ONLY THE FNT BUT A MIDLVL SHTWV
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THRU THE NRN PLAINS WILL AID IN PRECIP
SPREADING W TO E ACRS THE WFO MPX CWFA FRI NIGHT. COMPLICATING
MATTER IS THE DEPTH OF SHALLOW WARM AIR IN THE BLYR THAT WILL MESS
WITH THE P-TYPE FCST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROGS INDICATE A
MIX OF -FZRA/-SN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED...
PARTICULARLY OVER WRN INTO CENTRAL MN. AS THE PRECIP SPREADS
FURTHER E...INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCRS AS PWATS CLIMB TO ARND
1 INCH FRI NIGHT INTO MIDDAY SAT. HOWEVER...P-TYPE IS EXPECTED TO
MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS
RISE TO THE MID 30S ON SAT. THE CDFNT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MRNG...FORCING THE CHANGE
OF THE P-TYPE FROM RAIN /OR POSSIBLY A SMALL WINDOW OF -FZRA/ OVER
TO -SN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MRNG. WITH STILL DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME MINOR TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY.
THE SNOWFALL WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURG THE DAY ON SUN
FROM W TO E AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT SUCH
THAT THE HEAVIEST ICING /BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH/ ALONG
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL /BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES/ SUCH THAT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA STARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE WATCH IS IN PLACE...ADVISORY-LEVEL ICING
AND/OR SNOWFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF WHERE THE WATCH IS
CURRENTLY DELINEATED SO ADDITIONAL SUPPLEMENTAL PRODUCTS MAY BE
ISSUED DURING LATER PRODUCT PACKAGES TO ADDRESS THESE ISSUES. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN COMES IN SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP CLEAR AWAY ANY REMAINING PRECIP...PRODUCE PARTIAL CLEARING
SKIES AND PROMOTE COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL MAKE FOR LOW TEMPS
SUN NIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES LOOKS TO PREVAIL ON MON AS A
SHORTWAVE BUBBLE RIDGE LOOKS TO GLIDE ON THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A PROGRESSIVE WNW-ESE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUE AND WED THAT
WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF SHALLOW CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO
SHIFT ON THROUGH THE REGION. NEITHER LOOKS PARTICULARLY STRONG NOR
MOISTURE-LADEN SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLGT-LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FIRST CHANGE MADE TO 6Z TAFS WAS TO REMOVE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING. RAP AND HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON TAKING MVFR
CIGS OVER ERN NODAK DUE EAST ACROSS NRN MN...WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR AXN/STC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS STRATUS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF OTHER TERMINALS. INCREASING MOISTURE ON SE SFC WINDS HAS
RESULTED IN BLOSSOMING OF MVFR BR ACROSS NRN IA/SRN MN...AND DO
EXPECT SIMILAR VSBY TO IMPACT RWF...THOUGH EXPECT INCREASED WINDS
TONIGHT TO KEEP VSBY NO WORSE THAN IFR. AFTER THAT...LOTS OF
ACTION JAMMED INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A WALL OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COMES NE INTO THE AREA ON A STRONG LLJ. GFS LOOKED TO
ROBUST WITH MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SO FAVORED END OF
TAFS HEAVILY TOWARD A NAM/SREF TIMING. AS FOR P-TYPE...TEMPS LOOK
TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT STC/AXN...SO WENT WITH FZRA FOR THEM.
RWF/MSP WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. BASED ON NAM
AND SREF P-TYPE PLUMES...EXPECT PREDOMINATE TYPE TO BE RA AT BOTH
LOCATIONS...THOUGH LEFT A PROB30 FZRA IN AT MSP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST PARAMETERS THROUGH 00Z. ABOUT
THE ONLY THING THAT MAY DIFFER FROM CURRENT TAF IS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME MVFR BR/HZ IN THE MORNING. AT THE END OF THE
TAF...SOUNDINGS SAY WHATEVER FALLS AT THE FIELD WILL BE
LIQUID...WITH THE KEY BEING SFC TEMP. PROBABILITIES FAVOR TEMPS
BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR RA...BUT EVEN SO...4 MEMBERS OF THE SREF DO
SHOW A FEW HOURS OF FZRA SAT MORNING...SO LEFT THE PROB30 GROUP
FOR -FZRA TO GO WITH THE PREVAILING -RA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...IFR AND RAIN. LIFR AND -FZRA POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. WINDS
E AT 10KTS.
SUN...MVFR OR LOWER WITH -SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS N AT 15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR BENTON-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
SHERBURNE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPC/MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
659 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ADDED FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR TONIGHT MANY AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING PRECIP AREA PRETTY QUICKLY AND BASED ON
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS+OBSERVATIONS OVER HOLT COUNTY A BIT
EARLIER...ADDED FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MENTION. MENTION WAS MADE NWRN
ZONES THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT INTO OMAHA/LINCOLN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME INDICATIONS IT COULD BE BRIEF IN OMA/LNK.
LITTLE OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN/SHOWERS WHICH WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT
MAINTAINED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF TSTM MENTION. A BRIEF MIX OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW BUT
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. FIRST BAND OF MODERATE OR
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW COULD SET IN IN KOFK VICINITY TONIGHT WITH
SECOND BAND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING/EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM AROUND LINCOLN TOWARD OMAHA
AND INTO WRN IA. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN TAF FORECAST BUT AREAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAINS DIFFICULT.
CHERMOK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA TO THE SWRN CONUS WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. NRN WAVE
WAS MIGRATING ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER...SRN BRANCH WAS IN THE FORM
OF A CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF THE 4 CORNERS. MEANWHILE...SFC
REFLECTION OF SRN ENERGY WAS CENTERED OVER WRN KS WITH A DISTINCT
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SERN SD TO NW KS. ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
MOIST PER MORNING PRECIP WATER PLOT..AROUND AN INCH IN CNTRL OK AND
0.92" AT TOP. EXPECT INTENSE GULF MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE THRU
TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC LOW.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ELEMENTS NEEDED FOR WINTER
STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. WITH PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE TO TAP...NO QUESTION FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO. PROBLEM REMAINS THOUGH DETERMINING
PCPN CHANGE FROM RA TO SN AS WELL AS PINNING DOWN TOTAL SN
ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST SFC OBS WERE SHOWING THRUST OF CAA HAS PUSHED ITS WAY THRU THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN NEB WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S.
CURRENTLY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY WAS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE
NRN CWA.
AS MENTIONED...SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SFC REFLECTION MOVE ACROSS KS. FORCING WILL BE
ENHANCED FURTHER VIA STRONG UPPER LVL DIVG. ALSO BOTH THE NAM/GFS
MAINTAIN STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THRU THE NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM
MIGRATES EAST...CAA WRAPPING AROUND SFC LOW WILL FINALLY PENETRATE
DEEPER INTO THE CWA. PER 850MB TEMPS/SFC TIME-SECTIONS/CRITICAL THKNS
IT APPEARS THAT AIR MASS NEEDED FOR PCPN CHANGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. SPECIFICALLY...AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KOFK...TWD DAWN AT
KOMA/KLNK THEN SHORTLY AFT OVER THE IA CWA.
REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS...MUCH OF COURSE DEPENDING UPON CORRECTLY
TIMING CAA FILTERING IN. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE NRN CWA
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS WHERE DENDRITIC LIFT/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING IS MOST PREVALENT. THIS ALONG WITH PATH OF 500MB HFC.
COMPOSITE OF NAM/GFS QPF...SFC WINDS...VSBY PROGS STILL SUGGEST NEAR-
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT TEKAMAH TO DAVID CITY WHERE A WINTER
STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO POST A WINTER
WX ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA FOR COMBINATION OF
SN/BLSN/REDUCED VSBY.
DEE
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GREATER
THAN THE ECMWF. THUS THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE AREA TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE
OF THESE SHORT WAVES MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...WILL OPT TO LEAVE EXTENDED
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
SMITH
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ045-
051>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT TO 1 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR NEZ034-044-050.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT TO 1 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT TO 1 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1155 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADARS
CONTINUE TO REFLECTIVITY`S ENHANCING IN THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING UP ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS. COULD BE A
MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW AS WELL WITH SOUNDINGS ADVERTISING A MODEST
WARM POCKET WITH TEMPS AROUND +1 TO +2C IN A SHALLOW LAYER.
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. 12Z MODELS REMAIN ERRATIC
ON MAX/MIN QPF POSSIBILITIES. CONSIDERING GOING THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WHICH MEANS A 2 TO 4 INCH POSSIBILITY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THINGS AND HAVE A DECISION MADE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...AT NOON CST...COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW AT
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER TO NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR KJMS. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT KMOT/KJMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN
STORM SYSTEM WITH A LOW OVER COLORADO/WYOMING WILL KEEP ELY/NELY
WINDS AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...AND BRING ELY/NELY WINDS TO KMOT/KJMS BY
21Z-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE MID-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENCOMPASS TAF SITES. AT THE SAME
TIME...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING AT
KDIK WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AFT
00Z. LIGHT SNOW WITH POSSIBILITY MIX WITH SLEET AT KDIK THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
854 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...LATST BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST RAP CAPTURES THIS AREA AND
PUSHES IT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM 15Z THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
DENSE FOG FROM JAMESTOWN TO OAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE JAMESTOWN WEB CAMS SEEM TO BE
IMPROVING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY FOR NOW UNLESS CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EJECTS NORTHEAST WITH ITS ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION. WILL
LOOK MORE INTO THIS WITH THE 12Z DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...DENSE FOG/VLIFR VSBYS AT KJMS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
MVFR VSBYS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTERED MVFR VSBYS
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CHANCES TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...KS/RK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1241 PM EST FRI MAR 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS SLOWLY AWAY TODAY...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER PER LOCAL MODEL AND RUC 900-850MB
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH. NAM NOT PICKING UP ON THIS AS
WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
OVERALL RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DOUBLE
BARREL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S...PLACING THE CWA IN A NW FLOW PATTERN...WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS IN...PUSHING THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...WILL GRADUALLY RESULT IN LESS FAVORABLE
FLOW FOR CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. DRIED OUT POPS ACROSS THE
CWA SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION IS GRADUALLY STARTING
TO ERODE...AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN ZONES SLOWER TO CLEAR. WITH THE CLEARING SKY...AND
BUILDING HIGH...EXPECT A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND
ELECTED TO GO ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT KEPT RIDGE TOPS
WARMER THAN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DUE TO BUILDING RIDGE. MAY EVEN SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD. ELECTED TO BUMP MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS AREA REMAINS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEED A SPRING FEVER ALERT IN THE HWO FOR THE WEEKEND.
NAM12 APPEARS FAST WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NT. WENT WITH OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH HOLD THE FRONT...AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION...UP FOR A TIME SUN NT...ON ACCOUNT OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE. THE FRONT THEN STARTS MOVING E AGAIN LATER SUN NT AND
MON...AS THE WAVE GOES BY...THERE ARE GLOBAL MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
IN THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. GFS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT
REALLY SUPPORT THUNDER S OF THE WAVE AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MON
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS
ALONE FOR NOW PENDING POSSIBLE CHANGES IN FCST PARAMETERS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES WHICH JIBED WELL IN LIGHT OF LATEST
GUIDANCE. LOWERED DEW POINTS AND LOWS A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGHS ARE AT OR ABOVE PREVIOUS SAT AND UNCHANGED SUN...MID 60S
IN CHARLESTON. COOLING FROM THE W MON WILL BE A FUNCTION OF TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
BEHIND THE FRONT DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. HIGH
TERRAIN WILL BE COOLER W/R FCST H85 TEMPERATURES THAN USUAL UNTIL
THE FOOT-PLUS SNOW PACK UP THERE IS ABOUT GONE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE FROM THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE WEEKENDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH SHIFTS EAST.
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE FRONT CLOSELY FOR HYDRO CONCERNS. SO FAR MODELS ARE
SHIFTING IT EAST QUICKLY ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
INCH RANGE BUT IF WAVES END UP FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND IT STALLS...THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR PICKING A GOOD BIT MORE RAIN. AGAIN AT MOMENT IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL STALL BUT RATHER JUST SOMETHING TO
WATCH. COOLER AIR WILL SWING DOWN BEHIND THE FRONTAL MIDWEEK BUT
LOOKS FAR ENOUGH BEHIND THAT MOST OF THE LINGERING POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WITH BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE NORTH...AND WILL
KEEP THE TERMINALS ON THE CUSP OF MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CLEARING
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME MVFR MIST
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR MIST
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1239 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY REACHING THE COAST BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER DRY HIGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM...WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND GUSTY
OVER THE MTNS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK WHEN
THEY DIMINISH. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE TN BORDER
BUT BEGIN DISSIPATING FROM THE SW NEAR DAYBREAK.
AS OF 1035 PM EST THU...BLENDED IN SOME RUC13 WINDS WHICH HAS BUMPED
UP THE SPEEDS A LITTLE OVER THE NRN PART OF THE UPSTATE AND THE SRN
NC PIEDMONT. WINDS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 KTS IN THESE AREAS ATTM.
OTHERWISE THE SKY GRIDS WERE AGAIN TWEAKED TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT
ORIENTATION OF THE STRATO-CU ALONG THE TN LINE. IT/S MADE SOME
PROGRESS UP THE FRENCH BROAD AND PIGEON RIVER VALLEYS...THOUGH I
DON/T SEE IT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
AGAIN OVER THE NRN NC FOOTHILLS.
AS OF 755 PM EST THU...ADDED A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER RIGHT ALONG
THE TN LINE. ALSO LOWERED HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NRN
MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS WHERE TEMPS ARE RUNNING LOWER THAN PREDICTED.
THE REST OF THE GRIDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
AS OF 510 PM EST THU...UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHARP
CLEARING LINE ALONG THE TN LINE. UPSTREAM STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT AND I HAVE IT HOLDING ON RIGHT ALONG THE LINE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. THE OTHER 98 PERCENT OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A
LOVELY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF SNOW COVER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
UPSLOPE STRATOCU ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TENN BORDER...AND THIS MAY EVEN
EXPAND A BIT TONIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT...FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MIN
TEMPS TO COOL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH RECEIVES SOME REINFORCEMENT...
AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE DIGS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY DIFFERENT THAN TODAY/S READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PROVIDING VERY PLEASANT AND DRY
WEATHER. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...TO OFF THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL
TRANSPORT INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SUN. THEREFORE...EXPECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S OUTSIDE THE MOUTNAINS...WITH EVEN LOW 60S MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI NIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
COOL AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST THURSDAY...07/12Z GFS AND 07/00Z ECM ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE PERTINENT WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE 07/12Z CANADIAN CAME IN AS AN OUTLIER AND WAS
DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND
TRAVERSE THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MODEL TIMING FOR THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CONVERGING ON MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MON...THE RETURN FLOW WILL TAP INTO ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS BY EARLY MON. SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...MOST LIKELY IN THE HALF
INCH TO INCH RANGE. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING DURING THE
NIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO DO NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER
MENTIONED. ALSO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH SO THAT NO
PTYPE ISSUES AREA EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXECEPTION MAY THE ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3500FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHERE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD COMMENCE SO CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA ON WED/THU. 12Z GFS TIME/HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICENT FOR MORE CLOUDS ON WED/THU BUT WILL STAY
CLOSER TO THE DRYER ECM SOLUTION AND FORECAST MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE AND
THEN COOL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. N TO NE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN WITH MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK.
IN FACT...LOW END GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT KCLT AND POSSIBLE AT KHKY.
WINDS BECOME NLY AT KGSP/KGMU FOR THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT WSW AT
KAND WITH WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPING. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING.
AT KAVL...GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL PERSIST TO NEAR DAYBREAK WHEN GUSTS
DIMINISH. GUST RETURN WITH MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK WITH LIGHT WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
TN BORDER TO REACH THE AIRPORT.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 78% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1035 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS MT INTO SOUTHERN
ND. WATER VAPOUR HAD LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING
INTO SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF SYSTEM PRODUCING
STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHEAST MT...UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 90KT JET...PRODUCING
SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST SD. AREA ALSO IN A REGION OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE
DAY PER 12Z RAP AND THUS WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CWA. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN WY/MT SUPPORTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SD. FOG SHOULD MIX AWAY SOME BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED CURRENT AREA OF FOG TO COVER SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA.
FINALLY...12Z NAM CONTINUES TREND OF FASTER NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...WHICH WILL PUSH CA TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
DIGGING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT TOWARD THE
REGION IN THE PERIOD AND SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE SW CONUS TROUGH...EVENTUALLY
PHASING EAST OF THE REGION. FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...KEEPING THE TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF THE FA AT FIRST/THEN SHIFTING THE TRACK NW FOR SEVERAL
CYCLES /WITH THE LATEST SUITE SUPPORTING A SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH.
THE EXACT TRACK WILL HINGE UPON TWO MAIN FEATURES: 1/ HOW FAST THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF
THE EJECTING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH. 2/ THE INTENSITY OF THE FORWARD
FLANK JET STREAK WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF POSITIVE TROUGH
TILT AND ASSOCIATED SHEARING OF THE THE SW CONUS UPPER WAVE...HIGHLY
AFFECTING THE SPEED AND LIFT PLACEMENT. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT A
STRONGER POSITIVE TILT TO THE SW CONUS UPPER WAVE...WITH A
ASSOCIATED FASTER PROPAGATION SPEED...BRINGING IN A VERSION OF
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE...WITH ASSOCIATED LL DRYING OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FA SAT. IN ADDITION..LL THERMAL FIELDS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE WELL IN THE 30S AND EVEN LOWER 40S ON
SAT...SAVE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THE STRONGER COLLOCATION OF DEEP
LAYER LIFT WILL BE PRESENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP WITH A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXISTS OVER SCENTRAL LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...ALTHOUGH AS STATED EARLIER...FORECAST MODELS HAVE TERNED
WARMER PER THERMAL FIELDS...WITH LOCATIONS INVOF ICR REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL SAT MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH AND SCENTRAL FA...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS
REMAIN FOR POTENTIAL DEFORMATION BANDING OVER FAR SCENTRAL SAT
AFTERNOON...A SOLUTION INDICATED IN NAM/GFS/SREF/AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. QUESTION REMAINS THROUGH WHERE AND THIS BAND WILL SETUP
AND THE DEGREE OF LL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHEN THE STRONGEST ROUND OF
DEEP ASCENT DEVELOPS IN THAT LOCATION.
LINGERING WEAK WAA/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF
THE FA THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP GIVEN WEAK
FORCING AND DRY LL/S. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONG WAA WILL
ENSUE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...SPREADING
NORTH OVERNIGHT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP
MAY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FA...WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING PER THE DETAILS OF THE THIS FIRST ROUND OF WAA.
RETAINED A MIXED POTENTIAL FOR THIS IN SE...WITH GENERAL RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW CHANCES ELSEWHERE. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SUPPORT A ROUND OF LARGE SCALE SINK OVER
MUCH OF THE FA SAT...SUPPORTING LL DRYING OVER MUCH OF THE FA. DID
TREND POPS DOWN AND TO THE SOUTH GIVEN THIS CONCERN.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT INDICATED IN Q-VECTOR
PROGS IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF A PINE RIDGE TO KADOKA LINE LATE SAT MORNING.
ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MIXED PRECIP.
HOWEVER...DEEP AND STRONG ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ENOUGH DYNAMIC
COOLING TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW OVER SCENTRAL AREAS BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER THE FA MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP GIVEN STRONG SINK AND DRYING LL/S. THIS INCLUDES THE NORTHERN
HILLS WHERE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THE NAM CERTAINLY DISPLAYS
A SHARP CUT OFF TO PRECIP IN QPF PROGS WHICH LOOKS HIGHLY CREDIBLE.
A RATHER WARM BL MAY LIMIT ACCUMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FA...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 INCHES REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SE...MELLETTE/TODD/TRIPP COUNTIES...WITH A LIKELY HEAVY WET LOWER
RATIO SNOW BEING FAVORED. TRIED TO INCORPORATED A SHIFT OF THE
HIGHEST POPS SE...LOWERING THE NW. WILL CONTINUE THE SPS AS DETAILS
ARE STILL LACKING AND WARNING CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY NW
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON...ESP ON THE EASTERN BH
FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...WARM BL TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MAY HIGHLY LIMIT
BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND WANE OVER THE FA SAT EVENING...WITH ALL
PLACES DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH WILL BRING LOW PRECIP CHANCES TO PTNS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA
FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
ISOLD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING LCL MVFR CIGS/VIS. FOR
TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBY ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
859 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS MT INTO SOUTHERN
ND. WATER VAPOUR HAD LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING
INTO SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF SYSTEM PRODUCING
STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHEAST MT...UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 90KT JET...PRODUCING
SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST SD. AREA ALSO IN A REGION OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE
DAY PER 12Z RAP AND THUS WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CWA. PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN WY/MT SUPPORTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SD. FOG SHOULD MIX AWAY SOME BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED CURRENT AREA OF FOG TO COVER SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA.
FINALLY...12Z NAM CONTINUES TREND OF FASTER NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...WHICH WILL PUSH CA TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
DIGGING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT TOWARD THE
REGION IN THE PERIOD AND SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE SW CONUS TROUGH...EVENTUALLY
PHASING EAST OF THE REGION. FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...KEEPING THE TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF THE FA AT FIRST/THEN SHIFTING THE TRACK NW FOR SEVERAL
CYCLES /WITH THE LATEST SUITE SUPPORTING A SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH.
THE EXACT TRACK WILL HINGE UPON TWO MAIN FEATURES: 1/ HOW FAST THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF
THE EJECTING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH. 2/ THE INTENSITY OF THE FORWARD
FLANK JET STREAK WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF POSITIVE TROUGH
TILT AND ASSOCIATED SHEARING OF THE THE SW CONUS UPPER WAVE...HIGHLY
AFFECTING THE SPEED AND LIFT PLACEMENT. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT A
STRONGER POSITIVE TILT TO THE SW CONUS UPPER WAVE...WITH A
ASSOCIATED FASTER PROPAGATION SPEED...BRINGING IN A VERSION OF
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE...WITH ASSOCIATED LL DRYING OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FA SAT. IN ADDITION..LL THERMAL FIELDS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE WELL IN THE 30S AND EVEN LOWER 40S ON
SAT...SAVE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THE STRONGER COLLOCATION OF DEEP
LAYER LIFT WILL BE PRESENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP WITH A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXISTS OVER SCENTRAL LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...ALTHOUGH AS STATED EARLIER...FORECAST MODELS HAVE TERNED
WARMER PER THERMAL FIELDS...WITH LOCATIONS INVOF ICR REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL SAT MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH AND SCENTRAL FA...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS
REMAIN FOR POTENTIAL DEFORMATION BANDING OVER FAR SCENTRAL SAT
AFTERNOON...A SOLUTION INDICATED IN NAM/GFS/SREF/AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. QUESTION REMAINS THROUGH WHERE AND THIS BAND WILL SETUP
AND THE DEGREE OF LL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHEN THE STRONGEST ROUND OF
DEEP ASCENT DEVELOPS IN THAT LOCATION.
LINGERING WEAK WAA/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF
THE FA THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP GIVEN WEAK
FORCING AND DRY LL/S. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONG WAA WILL
ENSUE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...SPREADING
NORTH OVERNIGHT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP
MAY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FA...WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING PER THE DETAILS OF THE THIS FIRST ROUND OF WAA.
RETAINED A MIXED POTENTIAL FOR THIS IN SE...WITH GENERAL RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW CHANCES ELSEWHERE. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SUPPORT A ROUND OF LARGE SCALE SINK OVER
MUCH OF THE FA SAT...SUPPORTING LL DRYING OVER MUCH OF THE FA. DID
TREND POPS DOWN AND TO THE SOUTH GIVEN THIS CONCERN.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT INDICATED IN Q-VECTOR
PROGS IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF A PINE RIDGE TO KADOKA LINE LATE SAT MORNING.
ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MIXED PRECIP.
HOWEVER...DEEP AND STRONG ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ENOUGH DYNAMIC
COOLING TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW OVER SCENTRAL AREAS BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER THE FA MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP GIVEN STRONG SINK AND DRYING LL/S. THIS INCLUDES THE NORTHERN
HILLS WHERE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THE NAM CERTAINLY DISPLAYS
A SHARP CUT OFF TO PRECIP IN QPF PROGS WHICH LOOKS HIGHLY CREDIBLE.
A RATHER WARM BL MAY LIMIT ACCUMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FA...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 INCHES REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SE...MELLETTE/TODD/TRIPP COUNTIES...WITH A LIKELY HEAVY WET LOWER
RATIO SNOW BEING FAVORED. TRIED TO INCORPORATED A SHIFT OF THE
HIGHEST POPS SE...LOWERING THE NW. WILL CONTINUE THE SPS AS DETAILS
ARE STILL LACKING AND WARNING CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY NW
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON...ESP ON THE EASTERN BH
FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...WARM BL TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MAY HIGHLY LIMIT
BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND WANE OVER THE FA SAT EVENING...WITH ALL
PLACES DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH WILL BRING LOW PRECIP CHANCES TO PTNS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA
FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST FRI MAR 8 2013
ISOLD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING LCL MVFR CIGS/VIS. FOR
TONIGHT...RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH
AREAS OF IFR VIS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1014 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
.UPDATE...
LEAD SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 600-800MB IS
CAUSING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. SOME GRADUAL SATURATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL DROP POPS TO
20 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TODAYS HIGHS...MAINLY TO LOWER THEM
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
CHALLENGES FOR THE 12Z TAF SET INCLUDE CIG TRENDS BETWEEN MVFR AND
LOW VFR AND TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES WITH A LEAD DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON.
STRATO-CU IN THE MVFR/VERY LOW VFR RANGE HAS BEEN SURGING NORTH
ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ROTATING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LOW VFR CIGS BETWEEN
030-040 THIS MORNING...WILL LEAN WITH MODEL BUFR AND RUC OPS40
SOUNDINGS WITH GOING WITH A PREVAILING MVFR AROUND 025...BUT WITH
A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 015-020 THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TOP-DOWN COLUMN
SATURATION OCCUR QUICKLY AND SOME -RA/-SHRA OCCURRING BETWEEN 21Z
AND 01Z. HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO COVER THIS VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EXITS
TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW FOR CIGS
IMPROVING TO LOW VFR ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
MODELS HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF DRYLINE/FRONT IN ADVANCE OF OUR MAIN
SYSTEM ROTATING SOUTHEAST CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA/WRN AZ. IT APPEARS
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR +TSRA WILL BE 21Z-03Z SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND VERY GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z SUNDAY.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013/
0UR NEXT UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING WITH CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE REACH THE 4-CORNERS SATURDAY
MORNING AND KANSAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A TROUGH EXTENSION WILL
HANG BACK INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES
INTO THE MIDWEST. SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 300MB JET
WILL BE INCREASING FROM LESS THAN 60 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
90-100KTS IN THE EVENING WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR INTO THE 60-70 KNOTS RANGE. BEST CAPE VALUES...300-600
J/KG...WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGEST...POSSIBLY SEVERE...
STORMS OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR REMAINS HIGH SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A
DIMINISHED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS BY MID EVENING SATURDAY.
AS THE PACIFIC PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LINE
OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE 3/4 TO OVER 1 INCH
BEFORE ENDING.
ON SUNDAY...THE REMAINING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM LINGERING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COLDER AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FIRST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A FREEZE ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 57 69 50 58 / 20 20 40 80 20
WACO, TX 67 58 72 51 58 / 20 20 30 70 60
PARIS, TX 63 53 66 52 58 / 20 20 20 70 40
DENTON, TX 65 58 69 48 57 / 20 20 50 80 20
MCKINNEY, TX 64 56 67 49 58 / 20 20 30 80 30
DALLAS, TX 65 57 68 52 58 / 20 20 40 80 30
TERRELL, TX 65 55 68 53 58 / 20 20 20 70 40
CORSICANA, TX 67 57 69 55 59 / 20 20 20 70 60
TEMPLE, TX 67 59 72 53 59 / 20 20 30 70 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 66 59 72 47 57 / 20 20 50 60 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
549 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
.AVIATION...
CHALLENGES FOR THE 12Z TAF SET INCLUDE CIG TRENDS BETWEEN MVFR AND
LOW VFR AND TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES WITH A LEAD DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON.
STRATO-CU IN THE MVFR/VERY LOW VFR RANGE HAS BEEN SURGING NORTH
ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ROTATING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LOW VFR CIGS BETWEEN
030-040 THIS MORNING...WILL LEAN WITH MODEL BUFR AND RUC OPS40
SOUNDINGS WITH GOING WITH A PREVAILING MVFR AROUND 025...BUT WITH
A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 015-020 THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TOP-DOWN COLUMN
SATURATION OCCUR QUICKLY AND SOME -RA/-SHRA OCCURRING BETWEEN 21Z
AND 01Z. HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO COVER THIS VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EXITS
TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW FOR CIGS
IMPROVING TO LOW VFR ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
MODELS HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF DRYLINE/FRONT IN ADVANCE OF OUR MAIN
SYSTEM ROTATING SOUTHEAST CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA/WRN AZ. IT APPEARS
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR +TSRA WILL BE 21Z-03Z SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AND VERY GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z SUNDAY.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013/
0UR NEXT UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING WITH CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE REACH THE 4-CORNERS SATURDAY
MORNING AND KANSAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A TROUGH EXTENSION WILL
HANG BACK INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES
INTO THE MIDWEST. SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 300MB JET
WILL BE INCREASING FROM LESS THAN 60 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO
90-100KTS IN THE EVENING WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR INTO THE 60-70 KNOTS RANGE. BEST CAPE VALUES...300-600
J/KG...WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BE WHERE THE STRONGEST...POSSIBLY SEVERE...
STORMS OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR REMAINS HIGH SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A
DIMINISHED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS BY MID EVENING SATURDAY.
AS THE PACIFIC PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LINE
OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE 3/4 TO OVER 1 INCH
BEFORE ENDING.
ON SUNDAY...THE REMAINING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM LINGERING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COLDER AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FIRST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A FREEZE ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 57 68 50 58 / 30 20 30 80 20
WACO, TX 67 58 69 51 58 / 20 20 30 70 60
PARIS, TX 63 53 66 52 58 / 20 20 20 70 40
DENTON, TX 65 58 68 48 57 / 40 20 30 80 20
MCKINNEY, TX 65 56 67 49 58 / 30 20 30 80 30
DALLAS, TX 67 57 68 52 58 / 30 20 30 80 30
TERRELL, TX 65 55 67 53 58 / 20 20 30 70 40
CORSICANA, TX 66 57 69 55 59 / 20 20 20 70 60
TEMPLE, TX 67 59 70 53 59 / 20 20 20 70 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 66 59 71 47 57 / 40 20 40 60 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/75
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
305 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
305 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION TYPES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO OF CONCERN IS FLOODING
POTENTIAL WITH THE RAIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST
SHOWING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WITH SOME PATCHY
STRATUS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A LARGER STRATUS FIELD IS FOUND
OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
08.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ON PRECIPITATION ONSET FRIDAY
NIGHT. GFS THE FASTEST OF ALL THE SOLUTIONS...WITH A NICE CLUSTERING
OF THE NAM/GEM AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING A SLOWER ONSET AND THUS DID GO
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...850MB-700MB WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LONGWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD OUT OF
THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT. NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO IOWA...THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA DURING
THE EVENING AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK WHEN THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR ICING AS LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES
IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND EXPECT A TRANSITION THEN TO ALL RAIN BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY. THUS EXPECTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE
FREEZING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR +6 DEGREES CELSIUS
ON SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AT THE SURFACE. THUS A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN EXPECTED WHICH
LEADS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL PROBLEM OF RAIN ON TOP OF THE HEAVY SNOW
PACK. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MODERATE
RAINFALL ON THE SNOWPACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERNS (SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
LATEST MODELS LOOK OP PUSH THE COLDER AIR IN A LITTLE QUICKER ON
SUNDAY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MODELS HINTING AT A DEFORMATION BAND
SITTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
EXPECT RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AND COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION IN AREAS NORTHWEST OF A ROCHESTER MINNESOTA TO
NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN LINE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS BAND AND HOW
QUICKLY THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AS A LITTLE MORE IN ACCUMULATION
COULD BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
305 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. 08.00Z GFS MORE
ZONAL THAN THE 08.00Z ECMWF AS THE ECMWF KEEPS A CLOSED 500MB LOW
JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THEN
PUSHING IT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME. IN EITHER CASE...WEAK WAVES
IN THE FLOW LIKELY TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH GENERALLY RANGES FROM 35 TO 40 ACROSS THE AREA.
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN DURING THE DAY AND SNOW AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY
1127 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013
STILL SOME CONCERN THAT FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT DROPPING THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR. THE 08.00Z NAM AND 08.03Z RAP HAVE BACKED OFF
THE IDEA THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR AT KLSE AND WITH A 6 DEGREE
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL NOT TOTALLY
DROP THE MENTION OF FOG AT KLSE BUT JUST HAVE IT IN A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE SAME SCENARIO IS SHOW FOR KRST BUT THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING THERE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
AS HIGH THAT THE MODELS ARE CORRECT. WITH THE VISIBILITY ALREADY
GOING DOWN WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AND
LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FOG IS
GONE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA IS STILL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE A SLOWER SOLUTION BRINGING
THIS SYSTEM IN AND HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION BACK UNTIL WELL AFTER
09.06Z WHILE THE 08.00Z GFS WOULD HAVE PRECIPITATION FALLING AT
BOTH TAF SITES BY 09.06Z. THE 07.12Z ECMWF IS BETWEEN THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS BUT HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION BACK UNTIL AFTER 09.06Z AS
WELL. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE COAST AND THAT THE
MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS...WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
305 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013
RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD
TO RUNOFF ISSUES INTO AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID TO FALL ONTO THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE. DUE TO THE DEEPER SNOWPACK...MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL CAN BE
ABSORBED. HOWEVER...IF RAINFALL BECOMES HEAVIER OR MORE SNOWMELT
THAN ANTICIPATED OCCURS...RUNOFF MAY BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE TOP LAYER OF GROUND IS SOLID WITH CONCRETE
FROST. WILL BE ISSUING A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT TO COVER THIS
INCREASING CONCERN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
305 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS/JLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1127 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
213 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013
MAIN CONCERN FOCUSED ON STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TO SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INCLUDING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WERE NOTED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER
EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL...OTHER THAN THAT...JUST SOME OCCASIONAL
CIRRUS WAS DRIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 2
PM IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
07.12Z MODELS COMING INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...LENDING TO HIGHER OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
LOOK FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIP EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL TURN WINDS TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE 5 TO 10KT RANGE. MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF PRETTY GOOD. EXPECTING
LOWS FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST IF I-94 IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO IN THE FAVORED COLD LOWER-LYING SPOTS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE TEENS. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO
FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUD TRENDS THOUGH AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS/NAM BUFR INDICATING AN INCREASE IN STRATUS AS WARMING
TAKES PLACE OVER THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE. HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THIS.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE STORM AFFECTING THE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS STATED ABOVE...LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWING VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMING HEAVIEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO DEAL WITH 2 FACETS OF THIS STORM. THE FIRST WILL BE
PRECIPITATION TYPES AT ONSET FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES DEPICTED BY THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/RAIN/SLEET FOR THE AREA.
THEN...LOOK FOR A TRANSITION IN THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM TO AROUND 8C WITH LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD AS WELL. THE SECOND
FACET OF THIS STORM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 250-300 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...
CORRESPONDING TO 0.75-1.00 INCH RANGE. CONCERNS ARISE AS FAR AS
RUNOFF BECOMING AN ISSUE. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE WINTRY MIX
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICING OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.
WILL PASS THIS ONTO THE MIDSHIFT TO ASSESS WITH LATEST AVAILABLE
MODEL DATA.
ANOTHER CONCERN TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE MELTING SNOWPACK.
EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BEE SEEN NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BLACK RIVER
FALLS WI TO AUSTIN MN.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
213 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013
07.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE HIGH-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS WHEREAS THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA. HAVE TAKEN A
BLEND APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY
1127 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013
STILL SOME CONCERN THAT FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT DROPPING THE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR. THE 08.00Z NAM AND 08.03Z RAP HAVE BACKED OFF
THE IDEA THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR AT KLSE AND WITH A 6 DEGREE
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL NOT TOTALLY
DROP THE MENTION OF FOG AT KLSE BUT JUST HAVE IT IN A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE SAME SCENARIO IS SHOW FOR KRST BUT THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING THERE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
AS HIGH THAT THE MODELS ARE CORRECT. WITH THE VISIBILITY ALREADY
GOING DOWN WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AND
LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FOG IS
GONE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA IS STILL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE A SLOWER SOLUTION BRINGING
THIS SYSTEM IN AND HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION BACK UNTIL WELL AFTER
09.06Z WHILE THE 08.00Z GFS WOULD HAVE PRECIPITATION FALLING AT
BOTH TAF SITES BY 09.06Z. THE 07.12Z ECMWF IS BETWEEN THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS BUT HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION BACK UNTIL AFTER 09.06Z AS
WELL. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE COAST AND THAT THE
MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS...WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
213 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013
RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD
TO RUNOFF ISSUES INTO AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID TO FALL ONTO THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE. DUE TO THE DEEPER SNOWPACK...MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL CAN BE
ABSORBED. HOWEVER...IF RAINFALL BECOMES HEAVIER OR MORE SNOWMELT
THAN ANTICIPATED OCCURS...RUNOFF MAY BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE TOP LAYER OF GROUND IS SOLID WITH CONCRETE
FROST. WILL BE ISSUING A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT TO COVER THIS
INCREASING CONCERN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
213 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
416 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW BANDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE SO FAR AS OF 2 AM.
WINDS HAD NOT REACHED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA YET BUT PEAK WIND
GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 49 KTS EARLIER AT SYRACUSE AND GOODLAND.
WINDS UPSTREAM DROPPED OFF A LITTLE IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH WIND
WARNING ISSUANCE BUT MAY PICK BACK UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM HAYS TO DIGHTON AND SCOTT
CITY. THE RAP STILL SHOWS 850MB WINDS AROUND 60 KTS BETWEEN 09 AND
18Z, ESPECIALLY FROM A CORRIDOR FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED. CLEARING WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE FROM THE MORNING
LOWS AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS, BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUCH AS
LIBERAL AND ELKHART SHOULD SEE MORE SUN, AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIRMASS THERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SNOW COVERED AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE TEENS. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH 5 TO 8 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NONETHELESS, A
100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLOW INTO
THE BASE OF THIS WAVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SMALL SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT TO
SLIP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN KANSAS WHILE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ALONG
WITH DECENT SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW REMAINS.
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A BROAD RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE THE LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN VERY QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM MONDAY EVENING. WITH
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE 10C BY MID WEEK...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY, WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION, ALTHOUGH FLATTENING
SLIGHTLY. THE INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW WILL
KEEP A FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EXISTING THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
LIKELY THURDSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SMALL BUT POTENT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, MUCH REMAINS TO
BE DETERMINED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE 00Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES REVEAL LITTLE WITH THIS WAVE BESIDES A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN CONTRAST, THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AND WILL OPT TOWARD A DRY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST
BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN GARDEN CITY BY 07Z AND DODGE
CITY AND HAYS BY 08Z, ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS TO OVER 30
KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KTS. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR IN THE SNOW
WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AT TIMES WITH THE BLOWING SNOW. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY 12Z IN KGCK/KDDC AND 15Z AT KHYS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. HOWEVER, 30KT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 23Z, WITH A WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 17 57 30 / 50 0 0 0
GCK 34 14 57 30 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 41 19 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 18 60 31 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 31 14 48 27 / 80 0 0 0
P28 35 21 52 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074-075-084.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>079.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ080-081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW BANDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE SO FAR AS OF 2 AM.
WINDS HAD NOT REACHED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA YET BUT PEAK WIND
GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 49 KTS EARLIER AT SYRACUSE AND GOODLAND.
WINDS UPSTREAM DROPPED OFF A LITTLE IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH WIND
WARNING ISSUANCE BUT MAY PICK BACK UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM HAYS TO DIGHTON AND SCOTT
CITY. THE RAP STILL SHOWS 850MB WINDS AROUND 60 KTS BETWEEN 09 AND
18Z, ESPECIALLY FROM A CORRIDOR FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED. CLEARING WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE FROM THE MORNING
LOWS AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS, BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUCH AS
LIBERAL AND ELKHART SHOULD SEE MORE SUN, AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIRMASS THERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SNOW COVERED AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE TEENS. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH 5 TO 8 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FOUND ABOVE THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITIONS
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM SECTION WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN THE 50S
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW PLACES
ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES ARE FORECASTED MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN GARDEN CITY BY 07Z AND DODGE
CITY AND HAYS BY 08Z, ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS TO OVER 30
KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KTS. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR IN THE SNOW
WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AT TIMES WITH THE BLOWING SNOW. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY 12Z IN KGCK/KDDC AND 15Z AT KHYS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. HOWEVER, 30KT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 23Z, WITH A WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 17 57 30 / 50 0 0 0
GCK 34 14 57 30 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 41 19 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 18 60 31 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 31 14 48 27 / 80 0 0 0
P28 35 21 52 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074-075-084.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>079.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ080-081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1052 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE...MAINLY TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS. MODELS
HAVING A LITTLE DIFFICULTY GETTING THE RIGHT LOCATION OF 700 TO 500
MB LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH
AND A LITTLE EAST. HOWEVER...BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR RETURNS
THE GFS AND RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION. WHAT IS
CONCERNING ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE RUC AND GFS BULLSEYE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. THE
OTHER MODEL OUTPUT EVEN THOUGH NOT QUITE RIGHT ON THE LOW LOCATION
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.
00Z SOUNDINGS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WOULD SUPPORT A VERY GOOD
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LIFT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A PERIOD OF UP TO
SIX HOURS OF RATHER INTENSE SNOWFALL. GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE REASONING
AND WHAT I AM SEEING ON RADAR...RAISED THE QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
PER A BLEND OF REALITY...RUC AND GFS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. SO NOW THERE IS WIDESPREAD 4 TO 7 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY NOT HAVE THE WINDS
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH. PROFILERS ARE SHOWING 50 KNOTS NOT TOO FAR
OFF THE SURFACE BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WHETHER THIS WORKS OUT OR NOT STILL LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. DID RAISE THE WINDS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING AND EXTENDED THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW A LITTLE
LONGER. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING A LITTLE LONGER. THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK
AT THAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH A CLOSED CENTER OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. H7 TROUGH AXIS
ALONG KS/CO BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
DEFORMATION BAND JUST WEST OF H7 TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN EASTERN
COLORADO EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY SLOT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
EXTENT OF CWA.
AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF OUR CWA IN
RESPONSE TO VERY MOIST BL AND STRONG WAA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SURFACE TD HAVE ALREADY BEEN DECREASING AT NORTON AND HILL
CITY...SO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DECREASING FOR OUR
AREA. WE COULD STILL SEE A WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
OUR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST...SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH 00Z
FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF SNOW BAND TONIGHT
THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS THIS BAND MOVING EAST AND
PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 7 INCHES ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST...AND LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A
QUICK RAIN/SNOW CHANGE OVER IN THE WEST...WITH CHANGEOVER THIS
EVENING IN THE EAST WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN PLACE.
UPSTREAM OBS ALREADY SHOW LIGHT SNOW IN YUMA COUNTY...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST TIMING. THE DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
06Z AS LARGE SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO PULL EAST...AND DRY AIR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY INDICATE THAT THIS SNOW BAND WILL
HOLD TOGETHER IF NOT INTENSIFY AFTER 06Z WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS BY AS
MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST. WITH RUC/NAM/GFS ALL
SHOWING INSTABILITY WITHIN 700-500MB LAYER WITH THIS BAND...THERE
MAY BE A CONNECTIVE COMPONENT THAT COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN LINE WITH THESE HIGHER TOTALS...HOWEVER IT IS HARD TO
GAUGE WHERE THIS WILL SET UP AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. I ALSO
THINK THE WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE BANDING WILL BE DURING THE EVENING
RATHER THAN AFTER 06Z...SINCE MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING A
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AS DRY/STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW
BEHIND THIS BAND. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MELTING WHICH COULD EAT INTO OUR SNOW AMOUNTS EARLY ON...HOWEVER AS
SNOWFALL INTENSIFIES AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP WE SHOULD START
TO OVERCOME THIS.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING STRONG H85 JET DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM WOULD INDICATE A SMALLER WINDOW FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS UP NORTH...HOWEVER IT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT UP NORTH...AND GUSTS 40-50MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
I DECIDED AGAINST MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO FORECAST OR
BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO DETAILS AND
RAIN/SNOW TIMING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WE MAY NEED TO MAKE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS THIS BAND STARTS MOVING EAST AND WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON HOW QUICKLY IT WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE STORM THAT IS AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL
BE HEADING OUT OF THE PLAINS REGION AND WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
MORNING AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE THAT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK BECOMES A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE PLAINS
STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE RIDGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS OVER THE WEST COAST DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. BY NEXT SATURDAY...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION SEEMS TO STILL BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE WITH A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN UNDERWAY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
THAT TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN SOME WIND EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE BENIGN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
SNOWFALL IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE NEAR KGLD AND JUST STARTING TO PICK
UP AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT KGLD AND WILL BE MOSTLY
DUE TO THE BLOWING SNOW. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE
TO MVFR AT KMCK UNTIL NEAR 12Z. AFTER THAT AT KMCK...THEN IFR CEILINGS
TO MVFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL NOT DECREASE
UNTIL LATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
ISSUED AT 816 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
ADJUSTED DEW POINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. USED RAP MODEL AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THOSE PARAMETERS. EVERYTHING ELSE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. RADAR PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS NEAR THE OWB AREA BUT
WITH 20+ DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES. LATEST NAM/WRF STILL SUPPORTS PREVIOUS TIMING OF MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE
PARENT UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENING A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE VERY WEAK
BUT K INDICES SHOW SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. BASED ON
SOUNDINGS...CRITICAL THICKNESSES ETC THERE COULD BE A
SPRINKLE/FLURRY MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS BEFORE ENDING
MONDAY MORNING. A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...THEN MODERATE
BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
IN GENERAL...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SHOW HEIGHT FALLS/TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN U.S....WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
COUNTRY`S MID SECTION. THE PAH FA WILL THEREFORE BE MAINLY EAST OF
THE RIDGING AND WEST OF THE NEAREST TROFFING...WITH MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW AND WESTERLIES TO NORTHWESTERLIES AS THE PREDOMINANT
UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES
EAST OF THE MS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD THE NET RESULT OF
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
THAT BY DAY 7-8 COULD YIELD A SMALL POP. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED...WE`RE INCLINED TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A FEW RUNS TO
SEE IF IT`S REAL VS SOME FEEDBACK IN THE HEIGHT FALL/RISE PATTERN
THAT WILL BE ADJUSTING IN A MINOR WAY THRU TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HESITATES IN ITS APPROACH TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SRLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...INCREASING IN VELOCITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY...GUSTING ABOVE 20 KTS EVERYWHERE.
TERMINALS IN THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION SUCH AS KCGI AND KPAH WILL
HAVE LOWERING CIGS THE EARLIEST...AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON THERE DUE TO WSPRD RAINFALL SURGING ACROSS
THE REGION. EVEN THE EASTERNMOST AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE RAINFALL IN
THE EVENING...THOUGH CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...PS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EST SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY THEN LIFT
NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS THROUGH
MAINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1215 AM UPDATE...THE STRATUS NOW EXTENDS FROM HOULTON TO BAR
HARBOR AND POINTS EAST. THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THE
STRATUS AREA FROM HOULTON SOUTH HAS BEEN MAKING MORE PROGRESS TO
THE WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS NORTHEAST
OF HOULTON IN NEW BRUNSWICK. EXPECT BY MORNING THAT MOST OF THE
AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM ALLAGASH-GREENVILLE WILL BE COVERED BY
STATUS WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY IN THE 1500-2000 FT AGL RANGE
(POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER AT KFVE). THE HRRR SHOWS THIS WELL ALTHOUGH
IT IS A BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS AS OF 05Z.
TEMPS IN THE STRATUS AREA HAVE LEVELED OFF AND IN SOME SPOTS EVEN
RISEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WILL RAISE THE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY COVERED BY OR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COVERED BY THE STRATUS SHORTLY. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES FURTHER TO THE WEST WHERE IT IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT THAT IT
TURNS CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...OR IF IT DOES THERE ARE STILL A FEW TO
SEVERAL HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.
UPDATE 2115L: STRATUS LURKING JUST TO OUR E CONTS TO BUILD VRY
SLOWLY WWRD... IT HAS ENTERED OUR FAR SERN AREAS AND SHOULD MV
INTO ERN/NERN AREAS NXT SEVERAL HRS. TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK ATTM
BUT MAY NEED SOME MODIFICATION DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THE INCOMING STRATUS DECK. FOR NOW...CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE 1815L: MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TNGT WILL BE SKY AND TEMPS...
AREA OF STRATUS/SC LURKING JUST ACROSS THE BORDER ATTM AND SOME OF
THE NR TERM MODELS BRING THIS CLDNS WWRD INTO ERN AREAS LATER THIS
EVE THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY ERLY SUN AM.
HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE EXPECTED TRENDS. CLDS
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS AS WELL BUT FOR NOW TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. FOR WIND HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND
GMOS. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT INITIALIZED WITH GMOS. WILL ADJUST
MINIMUM A FEW DEGREES LOWER WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES
AND CANADA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC...A SECONDARY LOW
OVER IL...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING BETWEEN. ARE THE MAJOR
WEATHER FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE LOW OVER QUEBEC MOVES EAST TO
EASTERN QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW MAINE AS AN INACTIVE
FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW OVER IL
WILL OCCLUDED AND MOVE NORTH INTO SWRN WS...THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS LA. BY MON EVNG THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SE. THE LOW OVER WS
BECOMES THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT DEEPENS SHIFTS NORTH TO NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST. THE GFS HAS IT INTO
NRN NH/WRN ME...THE ECMWF AND NAM INTO SRN QUEBEC. TUES MRNG THE
LOW MOVES NE INTO WRN QUEBEC...THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN
QUEBEC...THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO VT/NH. SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS INDICATED VA BY ALL 3
MODELS...AS WELL AS OVR CNTRL PA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVES WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. THE PRIMARY
LOW MOVES INTO NRN QUEBEC EAST OF JAMES BAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN ME...A SECONDARY LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT MOVES
INTO SRN NH...AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP/WND GRIDS.
USED SAME BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS...NAM-BC FOR MINS. NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS
IN COASTAL WATERS. PLUS 25 PERCENT FOR WND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS...15 PERCENT OVER LAND.&&
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MILD STRETCH WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE
COOL DOWN IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE W/YET ANOTHER BLOCKING PATTERN
SETTING UP.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT W/THE PROSPECTS OF A 2ND AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON THE
FRONT. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS40 AND NOW THE ECMWF POINT TO
THIS SCENARIO W/AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON W/PRECIP ENDING BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE STICKING POINT ATTM IS WHETHER COLDER
AIR SITTING BACK TO THE W WILL BE PULLED BACK INTO THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS(5/12) POINT TO
THIS SETUP. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE 3/5/12Z-3/6/00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF POINTED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MAINE W/LLVLS COOLING DOWN TO ALLOW FOR SNOW. ATTM,
DECIDED TO PLAY IT IN THE MIDDLE AND USED THE ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOWED MORE LIQUID PRECIP INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND HENCE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COLD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND DECISION HERE WAS TO
STAY AWAY FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE ATTM. THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S WARMER
SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKED GOOD W/TEMPERATURES
STAYING IN THE 40S.
THIS STRETCH OF ABOVE MILD WEATHER AND ADDED RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR
A DECENT MELT OF THE SNOW PACK AND ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. THIS COULD
LEAD TO ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PISCATAQUIS,
PENOBSCOT AND THE MATTAWAMKEAG. SNOW PACK IN THESE WATERSHEDS IS
RIPE AND WILL NOT ABSORB MUCH WATER. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AROOSTOOK
AND ST. JOHN BASINS, SNOW PACK WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB SOME WATER
INITIALLY BUT THIS TOO WILL RIPEN ESPECIALLY LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT.
THE RULE OF THUMB IS FOR 3 OR MORE DAYS OF 40+F FOR ICE BREAKUP EVEN
W/OUT RAIN. THE EXPECTED RAIN FOR THIS TERM COULD ADD TO THIS POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL TURN BACK TO A MORE NORMAL OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY LATE WEEK. A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ALLOWING
FOR A CLOSED LOW TO HANG OUT IN QUEBEC W/A COLD NW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. LEANED CLOSER TO GMOS FOR DAYS 6-7 FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KHUL AND KBHB AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES BY 08-09Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z SUNDAY WITH VFR FOR
THE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT FVE. AN INACTIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FVE AREA LAST SUNDAY NIGHT DROPPING CEILINGS TO MVFR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CEILING AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MAINE. BHB...BGR...FVE WILL
BEGIN TO FALL TO IFR BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. CAR...HUL...AND PQI
BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR
WIND GRIDS AND TAKE 125 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED.
WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA SO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SCA FOR
SEAS. FOR WAVES: LONG PERIOD WAVES CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM LONG
FETCH NORTH OF ATLANTIC LOW. FETCH DIRECTION HAS SHIFTED TO
SOUTHWEST SO REMAINING WAVES ARRIVING LOCALLY GENERATED LAST NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. COMBINED WAVES COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST WAVE
SYSTEM (PERIOD RUNNING AROUND 14 SECONDS) AND NORTHEAST WIND WAVE
GROUP.
SHORT TERM:
AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDING INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/KHW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...CB/KHW
MARINE...CB/KHW/NORTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
COLD FRONT HAD CROSSED ALL TAF SITES PRIOR TO 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH RAIN EARLIER AT
KLNK AND AT NWS OFFICE...SO WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO KOMA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS POSSIBLE AT
KOMA/LNK THROUGH 10-11Z PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT NONE WAS
INCLUDED IN TAF FORECAST WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND COVERAGE
QUESTIONABLE. AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SERN NEBR SUNDAY A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES. THIS WAS
FORECAST INTO KOFK VICINITY IN THE MORNING AND REACHING KOMA AND
POINTS EAST BY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VSBYS. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
NOTED IN LATTER PART OF TAF PERIOD BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD
LINGER THROUGH 11/06Z AT KOMA.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013/
UPDATE...
ADDED FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR TONIGHT MANY AREAS.
DISCUSSION...
WITH COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING PRECIP AREA PRETTY QUICKLY AND BASED ON
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS+OBSERVATIONS OVER HOLT COUNTY A BIT
EARLIER...ADDED FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MENTION. MENTION WAS MADE NWRN
ZONES THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT INTO OMAHA/LINCOLN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME INDICATIONS IT COULD BE BRIEF IN OMA/LNK.
LITTLE OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
CHERMOK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA TO THE SWRN CONUS WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. NRN WAVE
WAS MIGRATING ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER...SRN BRANCH WAS IN THE FORM
OF A CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF THE 4 CORNERS. MEANWHILE...SFC
REFLECTION OF SRN ENERGY WAS CENTERED OVER WRN KS WITH A DISTINCT
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SERN SD TO NW KS. ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
MOIST PER MORNING PRECIP WATER PLOT..AROUND AN INCH IN CNTRL OK AND
0.92" AT TOP. EXPECT INTENSE GULF MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE THRU
TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC LOW.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ELEMENTS NEEDED FOR WINTER
STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. WITH PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE TO TAP...NO QUESTION FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO. PROBLEM REMAINS THOUGH DETERMINING
PCPN CHANGE FROM RA TO SN AS WELL AS PINNING DOWN TOTAL SN
ACCUMULATIONS.
LATEST SFC OBS WERE SHOWING THRUST OF CAA HAS PUSHED ITS WAY THRU THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN NEB WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S.
CURRENTLY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY WAS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE
NRN CWA.
AS MENTIONED...SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SFC REFLECTION MOVE ACROSS KS. FORCING WILL BE
ENHANCED FURTHER VIA STRONG UPPER LVL DIVG. ALSO BOTH THE NAM/GFS
MAINTAIN STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THRU THE NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM
MIGRATES EAST...CAA WRAPPING AROUND SFC LOW WILL FINALLY PENETRATE
DEEPER INTO THE CWA. PER 850MB TEMPS/SFC TIME-SECTIONS/CRITICAL THKNS
IT APPEARS THAT AIR MASS NEEDED FOR PCPN CHANGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. SPECIFICALLY...AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KOFK...TWD DAWN AT
KOMA/KLNK THEN SHORTLY AFT OVER THE IA CWA.
REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS...MUCH OF COURSE DEPENDING UPON CORRECTLY
TIMING CAA FILTERING IN. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE NRN CWA
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS WHERE DENDRITIC LIFT/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING IS MOST PREVALENT. THIS ALONG WITH PATH OF 500MB HFC.
COMPOSITE OF NAM/GFS QPF...SFC WINDS...VSBY PROGS STILL SUGGEST NEAR-
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT TEKAMAH TO DAVID CITY WHERE A WINTER
STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO POST A WINTER
WX ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA FOR COMBINATION OF
SN/BLSN/REDUCED VSBY.
DEE
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GREATER
THAN THE ECMWF. THUS THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE AREA TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE
OF THESE SHORT WAVES MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...WILL OPT TO LEAVE EXTENDED
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
SMITH
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ045-
051>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ034-044-050.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
347 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE MILD
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FCST REGARDING
RIDGE/VLY SPLIT. HILLTOPS CURRENTLY IN THE LWR 30S AND VLYS IN THE
MID-20S WITH SIGNIFICANT INVERSION IN PLACE PER LATEST RAP BUFKIT
SNDGS. CLR SKIES HV BEEN PREVALENT THIS EVNG WITH CIRRUS WORKING
INTO WRN ZONES CURRENTLY AS HIGH CLDS RNDG CREST OF THE RIDGE. THIS
HAS GIVEN WAY TO RADNL COOLING CONDS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO START OFF ARND 20F IN VLYS/30F ON HILLTOPS WL RISE
QUICKLY TDA. SW BL FLOW WL KICK IN THIS MRNG BOOSTING H9 TEMPS ACRS
CWA. 00Z GEM CLDS INDICATE PCLDY CONDS THIS MRNG BUT CLDS EXPECTED
TO THIN BY AFTN UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN MAY LEAD TO A MSTLY SUNNY
AFTN ACRS THE REGION. HWVR WL GNRLY GO WITH PCLDY WORDING FOR TDA
GIVEN A MORE FILTERED-TYPE SUNSHINE. H9 TEMPS WL RISE TO NR +10C
ACRS THE LK PLAIN THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE U50S IN THESE
AREAS, MAINLY LWR ELEVATIONS OF YATES TO ONEIDA CNTY. IN ADDITION,
BUMPED VLY LOCATIONS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO MET NUMBERS.
H5 RIDGE WL STRENGTHEN ACRS THE NERN U.S. WITH 570 HEIGHTS INTO
UPSTATE NY BY EVNG COURTESY OF DEEPENING LOW ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
NO PCPN EXPECTED TDA AS ATMOSPHERE WL BE DRY AS A BONE PER 00Z KALY
AND KBUF RAOBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AREA WL BE WELL EAST OF SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED THRU 00Z TUESDAY. ALL GUIDANCE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LEAD WV OPENING UP AND EJECTING NORTH INTO
ONTARIO. THEREFORE POPS WL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFT 00Z.
00Z GFS INDICATES MAINLY DOWNGLIDE THRU MON AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WK PCPN DVLPNG ACRS SWRN CNTYS BY 00Z TUE THO COND PRESSURE DEFICITS
> 50 MB, SUPPORTIVE OF NAM BUFKIT SNDGS FOR KELM/KIPT INDICATING DRY
AIRMASS THRU MIDNIGHT. GIVEN MOCLDY CONDS EXPECTED AHD OF CDFNT MAX
TEMPS WL LKLY TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
WV PROGGED TO DVLP ALNG FRONTAL BNDRY BY TUE AFTN AND RIDE NORTH
THRU CWA. THIS WL SLOW CDFNT DOWN EVEN MORE AND FROPA WL LKLY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL TUE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES UP THE FRONT DRG THE
AFTN, FROPA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 18Z. H8 WINDS DRG THIS TIME INCRS
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO BTWN 50-60KTS WITH PW VALUES APPCHG 1.00 INCHES
ATTM. EXPECT 24-HR QPF AMNTS THRU 00Z WED TO AVG AROUND 0.50 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH IN THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS FM THE CATS.
AFT 00Z WED CLD AIR FILTERS INTO CWA WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO
NR -10C. THIS WL BE MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. THUS HV KEPT LOW
CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE NY AND SLGT CHC FOR NEPA FOR TUE NGT. PTYPE WL
DEPEND ON TEMPS THRU MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN SWITCHING OVR
TO ALL SNOW AFT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG BASED ON LATEST WPC DATA...BUT OVERALL
TREND REMAIN THE SAME WITH NWLY FLOW/COLDER TEMPS FOLLOWING
TUESDAY`S FROPA. LAKE ENHANCED -SHSN WED AND WED NGT...DCRSNG ON
THU. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE PCPN TWDS NXT WEEKEND.
PREV BLO...
12 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS CLOSER NOW WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NE US AND A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NY AND PA FOR THE
PERIOD. BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY THERE WILL BE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TUES NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE WED DIGGING THE UL TROF DEEPER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -14 WED THEN TO
-18 THU. THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND LAKE EFFECT.
LAKE ONTARIO SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE GOES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY BACK TO NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH SCT-BKN 200 AND
PSBLY SOME SCT AC ACRS NRN SXNS. WINDS TDA WILL BCM SELY AND INCRS
TO ARND 10 KTS...WITH G20 PSBL THIS AFTN MAINLY AT ITH/SYR DUE TO
BL MIXING AND STRONGER LOW LVL 925 FLOW. SE WINDS 10-20 KTS
TNGT.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY.
WED TO THU...MVFR IN -SHSN MAINLY CNTRL NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...NWS BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1106 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
SNOW NOW WINDING DOWN OVER SE CO. HEAVIER PRECIP NOW CONFINED S AND
E OF KLHX. ANOTHER SMALL BAND PERSISTENT OVER THE ERN WETS...WHICH
COULD END UP BOOSTING BEULAH`S SNOWFALL TO OVER A FOOT. HAVE LET
THE BZ WARNING AND OTHER MOUNTAIN HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 06Z...BALANCE
WILL EXPIRE AT 10Z TONIGHT. WILL BE A BRISK AND RAW MORNING ON
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. NEXT STORM WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL LATE IN THE WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 804 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS OVER NW AREAS OF THE CWA.
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM N TO S...STILL SOME HEAVY SNOW
SO F HGWY 50 OVR THE PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE SRN PLAINS ADVISORIES
OUT TIL 06-10Z. WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW FOR THE PALMER DVD WILL
ALLOW BZ WARNING TO CONTINUE THRU 06Z. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO BOOST POPS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH 06Z WITH ALL THE OTHER HEADLINES. DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
PALMER DIVIDE REALLY KILLING SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND
NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY. CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DOWN FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...BUT EASTERN PORTIONS
ARE STILL SEEING PERIODIC MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. OF
COURSE...CONDITIONS IN COLORADO SPRINGS LOOK MUCH BETTER...BUT
ITS HARD TO TAKE DOWN THE ADVISORY WITH ADVERSE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TO THE EAST OF ELLICOTT...SO WILL MAINTAIN FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. LATEST HRRR REALLY DIMINISHES PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY BY 03Z...SO WILL REVISIT HEADLINES AROUND THEN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 244 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE SNOW
ADVISORY. ACCUMS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH (2 - 4")...BUT THE
COMBO OF WINDS AND SNOW WILL MAKE FOR A HIGHER IMPACT EVENT. MOST
OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE ON GRASSY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
LEFT CURRENT HILITES AS ARE. GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION (N EL
PASO COUNTY). CDOT JUST CLOSED I-70 AND HIGHWAY 24 AROUND 145 PM.
LIKEWISE WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH 06Z. HEAVY SNOW THREAT HAS LESSENED BUT WIND IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND RECENT OBS SHOW THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY PICKING UP
ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS LATER THIS EVENING
WINDS WILL STILL STAY STRONG BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SNOW HAS DECREASED IN S EL PASO COUNTY IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS...BUT
FARTHER EAST SNOW STILL CONTINUES. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING THIS
REGION DUE TO THIS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE S PART OF THE
COUNTY.
OVERALL HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WET
MTNS AS OFF DUTY NWS MET REPORTING 8 INCHES AND IT IS STILL SNOWING
HEAVILY IN RYE...AND THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE RATON
MESA...(KIM REGION)...THESE FOLKS MAY COME IN WITH SOME DECENT SNOW
AMOUNTS AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS EVENT.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE EVENING...06Z-ISH
AND MOVE OUT OF THE ENTIRE STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FAR E PLAINS
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT BUT COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIF ACCUMS TO GRASSY AREAS.
FEW CG STRIKES NOTED ACROSS FAR SE CO AND ADDED THUNDER TO FCST.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY REGION-WIDE WITH COOL TEMPS AND
WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 50S...WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW USUALLY PRODUCES
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM NICELY AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO. HIGHS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
GUSTY N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS RELAX SUN AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AT KALS SUN MORNING. PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD
RESULT IN SOME SHALLOW VALLEY FG EARLY SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO PU IN TAFS SINCE FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE
POTENTIAL...AND NW WINDS ALOFT MAY INHIBIT FG/BR. EXPECT ANY
FG OR LOW CIGS TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND/OR LOCALIZED. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ094>096-098-
099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1030 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED OVER THE PLAINS HOWEVER
WINDS CONTINUE GUSTY ESP FM ERN ELBERT INTO NRN LINCOLN COUNTIES.
AFTER TALKING TO GLD WILL REPLACE BLIZARD WARNING WITH A BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZN 46 FM 06Z-10Z. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
REDEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BASED ON CURRENT RAP HOWEVER WILL JUST
KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MOISTURE IS MOVING SOUTH FM SERN WY HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN AND KEEP IT EAST OF DIA THRU 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...SNOW HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE ERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS WELL. WILL
STILL SEE AREAS OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS MAINLY SE OF A JULESBURG TO AKRON TO KIOWA LINE. LOOKS
LIKE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM MST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.
AVIATION...SNOW THREAT HAS ENDED HOWEVER GUSTY NORTH WINDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING BY 10 PM. CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 8000-10000 FT RANGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING SNOW COMING TO AN END
OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING AND FAR NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS DRYING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WILL LET THE CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORY CONTINUE AS IS. SNOW
MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING WHERE THE INTENSITY IS LIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE SNOW IS REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE EVEN IN LIGHT SNOW.
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW OVER LINCOLN AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
UNDER THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH IS PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. DID RECEIVE A
REPORT OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY OF 100 YARDS
NEAR LIMON.
STILL ON TRACK FOR SNOW TO END THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. COULD LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF EXTRA HOURS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.
FOR SUNDAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE WHERE SNOW DID NOT ACCUMULATE. IT WILL
STILL BE COOL AS NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...MEAN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY MONDAY PLACING COLORADO UNDER MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS..THOUGH
TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. MODELS THEN SHOW A
WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OUT WEST ON MONDAY. THIS ELONGATED DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
MANAGE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS
DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH DAYTIME READINGS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. DO
NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY MORE SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY AFTER
TUESDAY.
AVIATION...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AND THEN
DECREASE AND COME TO END BY AROUND 03Z AT KDEN. ENDING TIMES AT KBJC
AND KAPA WILL BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN KDEN. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z AT KDEN. LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY AT KDEN AND EASTWARD. ONCE
THE WINDS DECREASE...THEY WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHERLY AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ041-045-046-
048>051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ047.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1006 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS OVER NW AREAS OF THE CWA.
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM N TO S...STILL SOME HEAVY SNOW
SO F HGWY 50 OVR THE PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE SRN PLAINS ADVISORIES
OUT TIL 06-10Z. WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW FOR THE PALMER DVD WILL
ALLOW BZ WARNING TO CONTINUE THRU 06Z. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO BOOST POPS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH 06Z WITH ALL THE OTHER HEADLINES. DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
PALMER DIVIDE REALLY KILLING SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO AND
NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY. CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DOWN FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...BUT EASTERN PORTIONS
ARE STILL SEEING PERIODIC MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. OF
COURSE...CONDITIONS IN COLORADO SPRINGS LOOK MUCH BETTER...BUT
ITS HARD TO TAKE DOWN THE ADVISORY WITH ADVERSE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TO THE EAST OF ELLICOTT...SO WILL MAINTAIN FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. LATEST HRRR REALLY DIMINISHES PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY BY 03Z...SO WILL REVISIT HEADLINES AROUND THEN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 244 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE SNOW
ADVISORY. ACCUMS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH (2 - 4")...BUT THE
COMBO OF WINDS AND SNOW WILL MAKE FOR A HIGHER IMPACT EVENT. MOST
OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE ON GRASSY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
LEFT CURRENT HILITES AS ARE. GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION (N EL
PASO COUNTY). CDOT JUST CLOSED I-70 AND HIGHWAY 24 AROUND 145 PM.
LIKEWISE WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH 06Z. HEAVY SNOW THREAT HAS LESSENED BUT WIND IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND RECENT OBS SHOW THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY PICKING UP
ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS LATER THIS EVENING
WINDS WILL STILL STAY STRONG BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SNOW HAS DECREASED IN S EL PASO COUNTY IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS...BUT
FARTHER EAST SNOW STILL CONTINUES. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING THIS
REGION DUE TO THIS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE S PART OF THE
COUNTY.
OVERALL HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WET
MTNS AS OFF DUTY NWS MET REPORTING 8 INCHES AND IT IS STILL SNOWING
HEAVILY IN RYE...AND THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE RATON
MESA...(KIM REGION)...THESE FOLKS MAY COME IN WITH SOME DECENT SNOW
AMOUNTS AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS EVENT.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE EVENING...06Z-ISH
AND MOVE OUT OF THE ENTIRE STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FAR E PLAINS
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT BUT COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIF ACCUMS TO GRASSY AREAS.
FEW CG STRIKES NOTED ACROSS FAR SE CO AND ADDED THUNDER TO FCST.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY REGION-WIDE WITH COOL TEMPS AND
WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 50S...WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW USUALLY PRODUCES
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE
ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM NICELY AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO. HIGHS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST SAT MAR 9 2013
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
GUSTY N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS RELAX SUN AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AT KALS SUN MORNING. PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD
RESULT IN SOME SHALLOW VALLEY FG EARLY SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO PU IN TAFS SINCE FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE
POTENTIAL...AND NW WINDS ALOFT MAY INHIBIT FG/BR. EXPECT ANY
FG OR LOW CIGS TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND/OR LOCALIZED. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ072-
074-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ094>096-098-
099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073-075-
079-080.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1013 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
EAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW BANDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE SO FAR AS OF 2 AM.
WINDS HAD NOT REACHED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA YET BUT PEAK WIND
GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 49 KTS EARLIER AT SYRACUSE AND GOODLAND.
WINDS UPSTREAM DROPPED OFF A LITTLE IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH WIND
WARNING ISSUANCE BUT MAY PICK BACK UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM HAYS TO DIGHTON AND SCOTT
CITY. THE RAP STILL SHOWS 850MB WINDS AROUND 60 KTS BETWEEN 09 AND
18Z, ESPECIALLY FROM A CORRIDOR FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED. CLEARING WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE FROM THE MORNING
LOWS AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS, BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUCH AS
LIBERAL AND ELKHART SHOULD SEE MORE SUN, AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIRMASS THERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SNOW COVERED AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE TEENS. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH 5 TO 8 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NONETHELESS, A
100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLOW INTO
THE BASE OF THIS WAVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SMALL SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT TO
SLIP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN KANSAS WHILE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ALONG
WITH DECENT SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW REMAINS.
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A BROAD RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE THE LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN VERY QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM MONDAY EVENING. WITH
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE 10C BY MID WEEK...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY, WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION, ALTHOUGH FLATTENING
SLIGHTLY. THE INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW WILL
KEEP A FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EXISTING THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SMALL BUT POTENT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, MUCH REMAINS TO
BE DETERMINED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE 00Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES REVEAL LITTLE WITH THIS WAVE BESIDES A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN CONTRAST, THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AND WILL OPT TOWARD A DRY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST
BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
VIGOROUS WINTER STORM AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING
TO AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
STRETCHING FROM HAYS BACK TO BOTH DODGE AND GARDEN CITY, TO PUSH
EAST OUT OF THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS
POINT ALTHOUGH IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER, WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY BUT THEN EASE QUICKLY BY
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 17 57 30 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 34 14 57 30 / 60 0 0 0
EHA 41 19 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 18 60 31 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 31 14 48 27 / 90 0 0 0
P28 35 21 52 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
648 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW BANDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE SO FAR AS OF 2 AM.
WINDS HAD NOT REACHED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA YET BUT PEAK WIND
GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 49 KTS EARLIER AT SYRACUSE AND GOODLAND.
WINDS UPSTREAM DROPPED OFF A LITTLE IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH WIND
WARNING ISSUANCE BUT MAY PICK BACK UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM HAYS TO DIGHTON AND SCOTT
CITY. THE RAP STILL SHOWS 850MB WINDS AROUND 60 KTS BETWEEN 09 AND
18Z, ESPECIALLY FROM A CORRIDOR FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED. CLEARING WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE FROM THE MORNING
LOWS AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS, BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUCH AS
LIBERAL AND ELKHART SHOULD SEE MORE SUN, AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIRMASS THERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SNOW COVERED AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE TEENS. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH 5 TO 8 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NONETHELESS, A
100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLOW INTO
THE BASE OF THIS WAVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SMALL SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT TO
SLIP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN KANSAS WHILE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ALONG
WITH DECENT SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW REMAINS.
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A BROAD RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE THE LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN VERY QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM MONDAY EVENING. WITH
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE 10C BY MID WEEK...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY, WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION, ALTHOUGH FLATTENING
SLIGHTLY. THE INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW WILL
KEEP A FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EXISTING THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SMALL BUT POTENT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, MUCH REMAINS TO
BE DETERMINED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE 00Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES REVEAL LITTLE WITH THIS WAVE BESIDES A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN CONTRAST, THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AND WILL OPT TOWARD A DRY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST
BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
VIGOROUS WINTER STORM AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING
TO AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
STRETCHING FROM HAYS BACK TO BOTH DODGE AND GARDEN CITY, TO PUSH
EAST OUT OF THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS
POINT ALTHOUGH IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER, WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY BUT THEN EASE QUICKLY BY
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 17 57 30 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 34 14 57 30 / 60 0 0 0
EHA 41 19 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 18 60 31 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 31 14 48 27 / 90 0 0 0
P28 35 21 52 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074-075-084.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>079.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ080-081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 14Z RAP UPDATE...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WOULD SUGGEST THE
LIGHT QPF WILL HANG AROUND OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...SO TWEAKED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WOBBLES EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS. DEBATED INCLUDING OUR EASTERN ZONES IN A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
GUST CRITERIA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A NEW FORECAST IS OUT. HOLT COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT. THE SNOW IS GRADUALLY
WINDING DOWN BUT WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED AT 4 AM. SOME STRATUS
WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY GIVEN THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR -14C. ONCE THE SUN SETS...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR AND FORECAST LOWS TAKE THE COOL ROUTE WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS.
ON MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY TO DESTABILIZE THE ATM
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SETTING OFF SOME AFTN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE NAN SUGGESTED RAIN WHILE THE GFS INDICATED SNOW. SO
THE FORECAST IS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
COULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING IN A FEW ERN ZONES. MODEL WIND
DATA SUGGEST 45 MPH GUSTS THERE UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. THE VAD WIND
PROFILER AT THEDFORD IS DOWN TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CAN CONTINUE ON SCHEDULE. THE SNOW AND WIND
SHOULD BE EXITING THOSE AREAS. LINCOLN AND FRONTIER COUNTIES MIGHT
NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 12Z BUT RADAR WILL DICTATE THAT.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS AND
PERHAPS COLDER WITH DEEP SNOW COVER. THE REST OF THE FCST IS
STRAIGHT FORWARD. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEE THE LARGE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUT THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING A GOOD DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO DON/T THINK
ANYTHING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MEASURABLE. THEN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LIFT INCREASES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA
WITH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LOOKING TO
BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOR GOOD
UPWARD MOTION. THE MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE
IN THESE SAME AREAS SO LIGHT SNOW MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSITION EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BEING MODELED TO INCREASE ALMOST 10C. BUT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM AND SNOW COVER /WHICH FROM
REPORTS THIS EVENING IS EXTENSIVE IN SOME AREAS/ WAS A BIT
PESSIMISTIC IN HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET ON MONDAY AS THE
SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX.
THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING COLD SHOT BEHIND THE MONDAY
SYSTEM...BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT THE
WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAY STILL
SEE SOME IMPACT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO DO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE AXIS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THESE HIGHS ARE TOO PESSIMISTIC...BUT WOULD/VE LIKED TO SEE
STRONGER WINDS TO HELP DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK BY WEDNESDAY. HELD
HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER TEENS
BY 00Z SATURDAY. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY...AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WHILE A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE FORECAST IS NOT AS WARM AS SOME OF THE MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST AS THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE PUTTING 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES AND CAN TREND THE FORECAST UPWARD IF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES INCREASES.
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOLDOWN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MAY NOT BE OVER NEBRASKA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN SD AND THIS AREA
OF CLOUDS COULD ROTATE SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB LATER THIS MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTN. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS. SKIES WOULD THEN CLEAR NEAR SUNSET.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
718 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A NEW FORECAST IS OUT. HOLT COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT. THE SNOW IS GRADUALLY
WINDING DOWN BUT WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED AT 4 AM. SOME STRATUS
WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY GIVEN THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR -14C. ONCE THE SUN SETS...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR AND FORECAST LOWS TAKE THE COOL ROUTE WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS.
ON MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY TO DESTABILIZE THE ATM
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SETTING OFF SOME AFTN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE NAN SUGGESTED RAIN WHILE THE GFS INDICATED SNOW. SO
THE FORECAST IS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
COULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING IN A FEW ERN ZONES. MODEL WIND
DATA SUGGEST 45 MPH GUSTS THERE UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. THE VAD WIND
PROFILER AT THEDFORD IS DOWN TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CAN CONTINUE ON SCHEDULE. THE SNOW AND WIND
SHOULD BE EXITING THOSE AREAS. LINCOLN AND FRONTIER COUNTIES MIGHT
NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 12Z BUT RADAR WILL DICTATE THAT.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS AND
PERHAPS COLDER WITH DEEP SNOW COVER. THE REST OF THE FCST IS
STRAIGHT FORWARD. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEE THE LARGE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUT THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING A GOOD DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO DON/T THINK
ANYTHING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MEASURABLE. THEN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LIFT INCREASES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA
WITH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LOOKING TO
BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOR GOOD
UPWARD MOTION. THE MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE
IN THESE SAME AREAS SO LIGHT SNOW MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSITION EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BEING MODELED TO INCREASE ALMOST 10C. BUT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM AND SNOW COVER /WHICH FROM
REPORTS THIS EVENING IS EXTENSIVE IN SOME AREAS/ WAS A BIT
PESSIMISTIC IN HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET ON MONDAY AS THE
SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX.
THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING COLD SHOT BEHIND THE MONDAY
SYSTEM...BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT THE
WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAY STILL
SEE SOME IMPACT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO DO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE AXIS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THESE HIGHS ARE TOO PESSIMISTIC...BUT WOULD/VE LIKED TO SEE
STRONGER WINDS TO HELP DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK BY WEDNESDAY. HELD
HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER TEENS
BY 00Z SATURDAY. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY...AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WHILE A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE FORECAST IS NOT AS WARM AS SOME OF THE MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST AS THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE PUTTING 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES AND CAN TREND THE FORECAST UPWARD IF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES INCREASES.
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOLDOWN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MAY NOT BE OVER NEBRASKA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN SD AND THIS AREA
OF CLOUDS COULD ROTATE SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB LATER THIS MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTN. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS. SKIES WOULD THEN CLEAR NEAR SUNSET.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
616 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
COULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING IN A FEW ERN ZONES. MODEL WIND
DATA SUGGEST 45 MPH GUSTS THERE UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. THE VAD WIND
PROFILER AT THEDFORD IS DOWN TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CAN CONTINUE ON SCHEDULE. THE SNOW AND WIND
SHOULD BE EXITING THOSE AREAS. LINCOLN AND FRONTIER COUNTIES MIGHT
NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 12Z BUT RADAR WILL DICTATE THAT.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS AND
PERHAPS COLDER WITH DEEP SNOW COVER. THE REST OF THE FCST IS
STRAIGHT FORWARD. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEE THE LARGE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUT THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING A GOOD DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO DON/T THINK
ANYTHING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MEASURABLE. THEN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LIFT INCREASES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA
WITH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LOOKING TO
BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOR GOOD
UPWARD MOTION. THE MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE
IN THESE SAME AREAS SO LIGHT SNOW MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSITION EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BEING MODELED TO INCREASE ALMOST 10C. BUT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM AND SNOW COVER /WHICH FROM
REPORTS THIS EVENING IS EXTENSIVE IN SOME AREAS/ WAS A BIT
PESSIMISTIC IN HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET ON MONDAY AS THE
SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX.
THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING COLD SHOT BEHIND THE MONDAY
SYSTEM...BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT THE
WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAY STILL
SEE SOME IMPACT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO DO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE AXIS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THESE HIGHS ARE TOO PESSIMISTIC...BUT WOULD/VE LIKED TO SEE
STRONGER WINDS TO HELP DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK BY WEDNESDAY. HELD
HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER TEENS
BY 00Z SATURDAY. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY...AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WHILE A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE FORECAST IS NOT AS WARM AS SOME OF THE MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST AS THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE PUTTING 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES AND CAN TREND THE FORECAST UPWARD IF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES INCREASES.
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOLDOWN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MAY NOT BE OVER NEBRASKA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN SD AND THIS AREA
OF CLOUDS COULD ROTATE SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB LATER THIS MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTN. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS. SKIES WOULD THEN CLEAR NEAR SUNSET.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR NEZ006>010-025-026-036-037-058-059-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ027>029-038.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
953 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE MOVED EAST INTO THE AREA. SOME
VIRGA ALSO SEEN COMING OUT OF THE MID DECK. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE QUICKLY INTO THE 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPED CLOUD AMOUNTS OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FCST REGARDING
RIDGE/VLY SPLIT. HILLTOPS CURRENTLY IN THE LWR 30S AND VLYS IN THE
MID-20S WITH SIGNIFICANT INVERSION IN PLACE PER LATEST RAP BUFKIT
SNDGS. CLR SKIES HV BEEN PREVALENT THIS EVNG WITH CIRRUS WORKING
INTO WRN ZONES CURRENTLY AS HIGH CLDS RNDG CREST OF THE RIDGE. THIS
HAS GIVEN WAY TO RADNL COOLING CONDS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO START OFF ARND 20F IN VLYS/30F ON HILLTOPS WL RISE
QUICKLY TDA. SW BL FLOW WL KICK IN THIS MRNG BOOSTING H9 TEMPS ACRS
CWA. 00Z GEM CLDS INDICATE PCLDY CONDS THIS MRNG BUT CLDS EXPECTED
TO THIN BY AFTN UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN MAY LEAD TO A MSTLY SUNNY
AFTN ACRS THE REGION. HWVR WL GNRLY GO WITH PCLDY WORDING FOR TDA
GIVEN A MORE FILTERED-TYPE SUNSHINE. H9 TEMPS WL RISE TO NR +10C
ACRS THE LK PLAIN THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE U50S IN THESE
AREAS, MAINLY LWR ELEVATIONS OF YATES TO ONEIDA CNTY. IN ADDITION,
BUMPED VLY LOCATIONS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO MET NUMBERS.
H5 RIDGE WL STRENGTHEN ACRS THE NERN U.S. WITH 570 HEIGHTS INTO
UPSTATE NY BY EVNG COURTESY OF DEEPENING LOW ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
NO PCPN EXPECTED TDA AS ATMOSPHERE WL BE DRY AS A BONE PER 00Z KALY
AND KBUF RAOBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AREA WL BE WELL EAST OF SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED THRU 00Z TUESDAY. ALL GUIDANCE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LEAD WV OPENING UP AND EJECTING NORTH INTO
ONTARIO. THEREFORE POPS WL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFT 00Z.
00Z GFS INDICATES MAINLY DOWNGLIDE THRU MON AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WK PCPN DVLPNG ACRS SWRN CNTYS BY 00Z TUE THO COND PRESSURE DEFICITS
> 50 MB, SUPPORTIVE OF NAM BUFKIT SNDGS FOR KELM/KIPT INDICATING DRY
AIRMASS THRU MIDNIGHT. GIVEN MOCLDY CONDS EXPECTED AHD OF CDFNT MAX
TEMPS WL LKLY TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
WV PROGGED TO DVLP ALNG FRONTAL BNDRY BY TUE AFTN AND RIDE NORTH
THRU CWA. THIS WL SLOW CDFNT DOWN EVEN MORE AND FROPA WL LKLY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL TUE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES UP THE FRONT DRG THE
AFTN, FROPA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 18Z. H8 WINDS DRG THIS TIME INCRS
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO BTWN 50-60KTS WITH PW VALUES APPCHG 1.00 INCHES
ATTM. EXPECT 24-HR QPF AMNTS THRU 00Z WED TO AVG AROUND 0.50 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH IN THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS FM THE CATS.
AFT 00Z WED CLD AIR FILTERS INTO CWA WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO
NR -10C. THIS WL BE MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. THUS HV KEPT LOW
CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE NY AND SLGT CHC FOR NEPA FOR TUE NGT. PTYPE WL
DEPEND ON TEMPS THRU MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN SWITCHING OVR
TO ALL SNOW AFT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG BASED ON LATEST WPC DATA...BUT OVERALL
TREND REMAIN THE SAME WITH NWLY FLOW/COLDER TEMPS FOLLOWING
TUESDAY`S FROPA. LAKE ENHANCED -SHSN WED AND WED NGT...DCRSNG ON
THU. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE PCPN TWDS NXT WEEKEND.
PREV BLO...
12 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS CLOSER NOW WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NE US AND A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NY AND PA FOR THE
PERIOD. BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY THERE WILL BE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TUES NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE WED DIGGING THE UL TROF DEEPER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -14 WED THEN TO
-18 THU. THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND LAKE EFFECT.
LAKE ONTARIO SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE GOES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY BACK TO NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH SCT-BKN100 AND BKN-
OVC200. BAND OF 100 OVC EARLY THIS MRNG NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR A FLURRY WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTNL FOR ISOLD -SHRA IF
THE ACTIVITY OVER OH HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT HEADS NEWD THIS AFTN.
WINDS TDA WILL BCM SELY AND INCRS TO 10-15 KTS...WITH G20 THIS
AFTN MAINLY AT ITH/SYR DUE TO BL MIXING AND STRONGER LOW LVL 925
FLOW. SE WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS TNGT.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY.
WED TO THU...MVFR IN -SHSN MAINLY CNTRL NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
640 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE MILD
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FCST REGARDING
RIDGE/VLY SPLIT. HILLTOPS CURRENTLY IN THE LWR 30S AND VLYS IN THE
MID-20S WITH SIGNIFICANT INVERSION IN PLACE PER LATEST RAP BUFKIT
SNDGS. CLR SKIES HV BEEN PREVALENT THIS EVNG WITH CIRRUS WORKING
INTO WRN ZONES CURRENTLY AS HIGH CLDS RNDG CREST OF THE RIDGE. THIS
HAS GIVEN WAY TO RADNL COOLING CONDS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO START OFF ARND 20F IN VLYS/30F ON HILLTOPS WL RISE
QUICKLY TDA. SW BL FLOW WL KICK IN THIS MRNG BOOSTING H9 TEMPS ACRS
CWA. 00Z GEM CLDS INDICATE PCLDY CONDS THIS MRNG BUT CLDS EXPECTED
TO THIN BY AFTN UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN MAY LEAD TO A MSTLY SUNNY
AFTN ACRS THE REGION. HWVR WL GNRLY GO WITH PCLDY WORDING FOR TDA
GIVEN A MORE FILTERED-TYPE SUNSHINE. H9 TEMPS WL RISE TO NR +10C
ACRS THE LK PLAIN THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE U50S IN THESE
AREAS, MAINLY LWR ELEVATIONS OF YATES TO ONEIDA CNTY. IN ADDITION,
BUMPED VLY LOCATIONS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO MET NUMBERS.
H5 RIDGE WL STRENGTHEN ACRS THE NERN U.S. WITH 570 HEIGHTS INTO
UPSTATE NY BY EVNG COURTESY OF DEEPENING LOW ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
NO PCPN EXPECTED TDA AS ATMOSPHERE WL BE DRY AS A BONE PER 00Z KALY
AND KBUF RAOBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AREA WL BE WELL EAST OF SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED THRU 00Z TUESDAY. ALL GUIDANCE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LEAD WV OPENING UP AND EJECTING NORTH INTO
ONTARIO. THEREFORE POPS WL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFT 00Z.
00Z GFS INDICATES MAINLY DOWNGLIDE THRU MON AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WK PCPN DVLPNG ACRS SWRN CNTYS BY 00Z TUE THO COND PRESSURE DEFICITS
> 50 MB, SUPPORTIVE OF NAM BUFKIT SNDGS FOR KELM/KIPT INDICATING DRY
AIRMASS THRU MIDNIGHT. GIVEN MOCLDY CONDS EXPECTED AHD OF CDFNT MAX
TEMPS WL LKLY TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
WV PROGGED TO DVLP ALNG FRONTAL BNDRY BY TUE AFTN AND RIDE NORTH
THRU CWA. THIS WL SLOW CDFNT DOWN EVEN MORE AND FROPA WL LKLY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL TUE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES UP THE FRONT DRG THE
AFTN, FROPA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 18Z. H8 WINDS DRG THIS TIME INCRS
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO BTWN 50-60KTS WITH PW VALUES APPCHG 1.00 INCHES
ATTM. EXPECT 24-HR QPF AMNTS THRU 00Z WED TO AVG AROUND 0.50 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH IN THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS FM THE CATS.
AFT 00Z WED CLD AIR FILTERS INTO CWA WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO
NR -10C. THIS WL BE MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. THUS HV KEPT LOW
CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE NY AND SLGT CHC FOR NEPA FOR TUE NGT. PTYPE WL
DEPEND ON TEMPS THRU MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN SWITCHING OVR
TO ALL SNOW AFT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG BASED ON LATEST WPC DATA...BUT OVERALL
TREND REMAIN THE SAME WITH NWLY FLOW/COLDER TEMPS FOLLOWING
TUESDAY`S FROPA. LAKE ENHANCED -SHSN WED AND WED NGT...DCRSNG ON
THU. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE PCPN TWDS NXT WEEKEND.
PREV BLO...
12 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS CLOSER NOW WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NE US AND A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NY AND PA FOR THE
PERIOD. BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY THERE WILL BE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TUES NIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE WED DIGGING THE UL TROF DEEPER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -14 WED THEN TO
-18 THU. THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND LAKE EFFECT.
LAKE ONTARIO SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE GOES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY BACK TO NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH SCT-BKN100 AND BKN-
OVC200. BAND OF 100 OVC EARLY THIS MRNG NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR A FLURRY WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTNL FOR ISOLD -SHRA IF
THE ACTIVITY OVER OH HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT HEADS NEWD THIS AFTN.
WINDS TDA WILL BCM SELY AND INCRS TO 10-15 KTS...WITH G20 THIS
AFTN MAINLY AT ITH/SYR DUE TO BL MIXING AND STRONGER LOW LVL 925
FLOW. SE WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS TNGT.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY.
WED TO THU...MVFR IN -SHSN MAINLY CNTRL NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
905 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.DISCUSSION...LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOW AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH
FLURRIES OCCURRING FROM ROLLA...TO CARRINGTON AND INTO JAMESTOWN.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING. WE MAY SEE SOME EROSION ON ITS OUTER EDGES LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RUC SEEMS WAY OVERDONE WITH THE
LOW LEVEL/925MB RH FIELD...WHILE THE NAM IS OKAY BUT NOT GREAT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHWEST IS IMPROVING WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH A BENIGN WEATHER DAY AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KJMS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION..KS
AVIATION...KS/RK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SUN MAR 10 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BASE
OF TROUGH OVER BAJA PENINSULA. STACKED H7/H5 CLOSED LOW CENTER IS
CURRENTLY OVER NE KANSAS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN US INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW A STRONG AXIS OF SUBSIDENCE IN IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
MISSOURI.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM PULLS EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CWA. WE
ARE ALREADY SEEING WINDS DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AT OR ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON MIXING
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA. I DECIDED TO EXTEND ADVISORY
00Z...THOUGH WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY EARLY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT W/NW WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING EAST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SHIFT TO A NW WITH LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z TONIGHT. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EASTERN
LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE A FEW FLURRIES AS ENERGY ROTATES ON THE
BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW...HOWEVER BEYOND THIS THE FORECAST SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA FROM THE WEST
TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHAT IMPACT RECENT SNOW PACK WILL HAVE ON TEMPS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PAST EVENTS WARMING MUCH FASTER THAN
ORIGINALLY INDICATED. FOR NOW I THINK OUR LOWS SHOULD COOL TO LOW
TO MID TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE WARMING AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS
ON MON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F UNDER IDEAL
MIXING. TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW I KEPT HIGH FORECAST MON ABOUT 5-10F
COOLER RANGING FROM UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTH
WHERE LESS SNOW FELL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SUN MAR 10 2013
LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING NEXT
WEEKEND.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CARRY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS MID AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WINDS MAY ALSO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WEAK WAVE
HELPS MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSTIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST
AND ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
THE FLOW FLATTENS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN
THER INDIVIDUAL HANDLING OF SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES AND THE LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
DEPENDING UPON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION COULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...OR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SUN MAR 10 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KMCK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND BACK SIDE OF
EXITING UPPER LOW. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
BY 21-22Z AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN...WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW
12KT AROUND SUNSET. STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT
KGLD WHERE GUSTS TO 39KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 12KT OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE
AT KGLD MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-
004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
EAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW BANDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE SO FAR AS OF 2 AM.
WINDS HAD NOT REACHED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA YET BUT PEAK WIND
GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS 49 KTS EARLIER AT SYRACUSE AND GOODLAND.
WINDS UPSTREAM DROPPED OFF A LITTLE IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIGH WIND
WARNING ISSUANCE BUT MAY PICK BACK UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM HAYS TO DIGHTON AND SCOTT
CITY. THE RAP STILL SHOWS 850MB WINDS AROUND 60 KTS BETWEEN 09 AND
18Z, ESPECIALLY FROM A CORRIDOR FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED. CLEARING WILL
BEGIN TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER NEAR INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE FROM THE MORNING
LOWS AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS, BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST SUCH AS
LIBERAL AND ELKHART SHOULD SEE MORE SUN, AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIRMASS THERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SNOW COVERED AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE TEENS. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH 5 TO 8 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NONETHELESS, A
100+ KNOT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLOW INTO
THE BASE OF THIS WAVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SMALL SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT TO
SLIP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN KANSAS WHILE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ALONG
WITH DECENT SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW REMAINS.
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A BROAD RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE THE LEE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN VERY QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM MONDAY EVENING. WITH
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE 10C BY MID WEEK...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY, WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION, ALTHOUGH FLATTENING
SLIGHTLY. THE INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW WILL
KEEP A FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EXISTING THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SMALL BUT POTENT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, MUCH REMAINS TO
BE DETERMINED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE 00Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES REVEAL LITTLE WITH THIS WAVE BESIDES A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN CONTRAST, THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AND WILL OPT TOWARD A DRY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST
BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AS FOR WINDS, STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MISSOURI WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING DROPPING TO BELOW 15KT
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 17 57 30 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 34 14 57 30 / 60 0 0 0
EHA 41 19 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 39 18 60 31 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 31 14 48 27 / 90 0 0 0
P28 35 21 52 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
621 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...WITH A RETURN TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE E COAST. MESO AND NR TERM MODEL DATA
INDICATE WARM AIR ADVCTN WL CONT TNGT...SO INCRD LO TEMPS TNGT DUE
TO THIS AND CLD CVR. A CDFNT WL BEGIN TO APRCH THE RGN FM THE W
ON MON WITH A BAND OF SHRA OUT AHD OF THE FNT. SHRA CHCS WL INCR
THRU THE DAY ESP W OF PIT. GUSTY S-SW WNDS ARE EXPD AS WELL. ABV
AVG HIGHS EXPD AGAIN MON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPTG SHRA WITH FROPA MON EVE/OVRNGT. COLD AIR ADVCTN WL BEGIN AFT
FROPA WITH LOW CHCS FOR PCPN. CRITICAL THICKNESSES/PROFILES
INDICATE SHRA MAY MIX WITH SHSN TUE. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPD TO DROP
BLO SEASONAL AVGS AGAIN TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW AND AN UPR LVL TROF WL BRING INCRG SHSN CHCS TO THE
RGN THRU WED. SFC HI PRES GRDLY BLDS IN THU AND THU NGT. A WK SFC
LOW IS EXPD TO QUICKLY TRACK SEWD ACRS THE OH VLY RGN FRI...WITH A
CHC FOR SHRA/SHSN MAINLY S OF PIT. A QUASI STNRY FNT IS EXPD TO
SET UP ACRS THE OH/TN VLY RGNS OVR THE WK END...CONTG THE CHC FOR
SHRA/SHSN MAINLY S OF PIT. TEMPS EXPD TO REMAIN BLO SEASONAL AVGS
THRU THE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WEA WL CONT THRU MONDAY...HOWEVER...LLWS WL BE A CONCERN LATE
TNGT AND EARLY MONDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES DVLPS TWD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. LATEST NAM AND RAP MDL SNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT
ENHANCEMENTMENT OF THE LLVL JET TO ADD A WIND SHEAR MENTION FOR THE
OVRNGT HRS IN ALL...BUT ERNMOST TAF SITES.
THIS STRONG WARM ADVCTN REGIME SHOULD CAP THE BNDRY LYR...AND THUS
LIMIT GUSTS ON MONDAY. 20 TO 25 KT SFC GUSTS WL SUFFICE FOR THE
CURRENT PROGNOSIS.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CDFNT EXTENDING FM THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES LOW IS
FORECAST FOR A MONDAY NGT CROSSING OF THE UPR OH VALLEY.
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH THAT PASSAGE...AND
IN THE COLD ADVCTN REGIME BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT PROJECTED FOR
TUESDAY.
HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO RTN GENL VFR TO REGIONAL PORTS FOR LTR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 14Z RAP UPDATE...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WOULD SUGGEST THE
LIGHT QPF WILL HANG AROUND OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...SO TWEAKED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WOBBLES EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS. DEBATED INCLUDING OUR EASTERN ZONES IN A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
GUST CRITERIA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
A NEW FORECAST IS OUT. HOLT COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT. THE SNOW IS GRADUALLY
WINDING DOWN BUT WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED AT 4 AM. SOME STRATUS
WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY GIVEN THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR -14C. ONCE THE SUN SETS...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR AND FORECAST LOWS TAKE THE COOL ROUTE WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS.
ON MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY TO DESTABILIZE THE ATM
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SETTING OFF SOME AFTN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE NAN SUGGESTED RAIN WHILE THE GFS INDICATED SNOW. SO
THE FORECAST IS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
COULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING IN A FEW ERN ZONES. MODEL WIND
DATA SUGGEST 45 MPH GUSTS THERE UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. THE VAD WIND
PROFILER AT THEDFORD IS DOWN TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CAN CONTINUE ON SCHEDULE. THE SNOW AND WIND
SHOULD BE EXITING THOSE AREAS. LINCOLN AND FRONTIER COUNTIES MIGHT
NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 12Z BUT RADAR WILL DICTATE THAT.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS AND
PERHAPS COLDER WITH DEEP SNOW COVER. THE REST OF THE FCST IS
STRAIGHT FORWARD. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEE THE LARGE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE
AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUT THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING A GOOD DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO DON/T THINK
ANYTHING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MEASURABLE. THEN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THE LIFT INCREASES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA
WITH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LOOKING TO
BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOR GOOD
UPWARD MOTION. THE MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE
IN THESE SAME AREAS SO LIGHT SNOW MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSITION EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BEING MODELED TO INCREASE ALMOST 10C. BUT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM AND SNOW COVER /WHICH FROM
REPORTS THIS EVENING IS EXTENSIVE IN SOME AREAS/ WAS A BIT
PESSIMISTIC IN HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET ON MONDAY AS THE
SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX.
THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING COLD SHOT BEHIND THE MONDAY
SYSTEM...BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT THE
WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAY STILL
SEE SOME IMPACT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO DO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE AXIS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL YESTERDAY. IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THESE HIGHS ARE TOO PESSIMISTIC...BUT WOULD/VE LIKED TO SEE
STRONGER WINDS TO HELP DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK BY WEDNESDAY. HELD
HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER TEENS
BY 00Z SATURDAY. FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY...AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WHILE A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE FORECAST IS NOT AS WARM AS SOME OF THE MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST AS THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE PUTTING 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES AND CAN TREND THE FORECAST UPWARD IF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES INCREASES.
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT COOLDOWN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MAY NOT BE OVER NEBRASKA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY...BUT WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA RELAXES. EASTERN TERMINALS...SUCH AS
KVTN...KLBF...KTIF...KBBW...AND KONL MAY SEE ADDITIONAL GUSTS TO
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE/VE SHOULD HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE
STRONGEST GUSTS. TONIGHT...WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW
10KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE STILL
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING. WITHIN THE
SNOW...THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW
3SM...SO SUPPOSE THAT BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 21Z...BUT NOT EXPECTED. NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WHICH SUGGEST AN END TIME
TO THE FALLING SNOW AROUND 21Z. WILL MAINTAIN A -SN TEMPO GROUP AT
KVTN UNTIL 22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE -SN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
202 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE MOVED EAST INTO THE AREA. SOME
VIRGA ALSO SEEN COMING OUT OF THE MID DECK. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE QUICKLY INTO THE 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPED CLOUD AMOUNTS OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FCST REGARDING
RIDGE/VLY SPLIT. HILLTOPS CURRENTLY IN THE LWR 30S AND VLYS IN THE
MID-20S WITH SIGNIFICANT INVERSION IN PLACE PER LATEST RAP BUFKIT
SNDGS. CLR SKIES HV BEEN PREVALENT THIS EVNG WITH CIRRUS WORKING
INTO WRN ZONES CURRENTLY AS HIGH CLDS RNDG CREST OF THE RIDGE. THIS
HAS GIVEN WAY TO RADNL COOLING CONDS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO START OFF ARND 20F IN VLYS/30F ON HILLTOPS WL RISE
QUICKLY TDA. SW BL FLOW WL KICK IN THIS MRNG BOOSTING H9 TEMPS ACRS
CWA. 00Z GEM CLDS INDICATE PCLDY CONDS THIS MRNG BUT CLDS EXPECTED
TO THIN BY AFTN UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN MAY LEAD TO A MSTLY SUNNY
AFTN ACRS THE REGION. HWVR WL GNRLY GO WITH PCLDY WORDING FOR TDA
GIVEN A MORE FILTERED-TYPE SUNSHINE. H9 TEMPS WL RISE TO NR +10C
ACRS THE LK PLAIN THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE U50S IN THESE
AREAS, MAINLY LWR ELEVATIONS OF YATES TO ONEIDA CNTY. IN ADDITION,
BUMPED VLY LOCATIONS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO MET NUMBERS.
H5 RIDGE WL STRENGTHEN ACRS THE NERN U.S. WITH 570 HEIGHTS INTO
UPSTATE NY BY EVNG COURTESY OF DEEPENING LOW ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
NO PCPN EXPECTED TDA AS ATMOSPHERE WL BE DRY AS A BONE PER 00Z KALY
AND KBUF RAOBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
AREA WL BE WELL EAST OF SYSTEM SUN NGT INTO MONDAY WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED THRU 00Z TUESDAY. ALL GUIDANCE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LEAD WV OPENING UP AND EJECTING NORTH INTO
ONTARIO. THEREFORE POPS WL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFT 00Z.
00Z GFS INDICATES MAINLY DOWNGLIDE THRU MON AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WK PCPN DVLPNG ACRS SWRN CNTYS BY 00Z TUE THO COND PRESSURE DEFICITS
> 50 MB, SUPPORTIVE OF NAM BUFKIT SNDGS FOR KELM/KIPT INDICATING DRY
AIRMASS THRU MIDNIGHT. GIVEN MOCLDY CONDS EXPECTED AHD OF CDFNT MAX
TEMPS WL LKLY TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
WV PROGGED TO DVLP ALNG FRONTAL BNDRY BY TUE AFTN AND RIDE NORTH
THRU CWA. THIS WL SLOW CDFNT DOWN EVEN MORE AND FROPA WL LKLY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL TUE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES UP THE FRONT DRG THE
AFTN, FROPA WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFT 18Z. H8 WINDS DRG THIS TIME INCRS
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO BTWN 50-60KTS WITH PW VALUES APPCHG 1.00 INCHES
ATTM. EXPECT 24-HR QPF AMNTS THRU 00Z WED TO AVG AROUND 0.50 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH IN THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS FM THE CATS.
AFT 00Z WED CLD AIR FILTERS INTO CWA WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO
NR -10C. THIS WL BE MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. THUS HV KEPT LOW
CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE NY AND SLGT CHC FOR NEPA FOR TUE NGT. PTYPE WL
DEPEND ON TEMPS THRU MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN SWITCHING OVR
TO ALL SNOW AFT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING SFC
LOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT UNDER 300/310 FLOW WITH T85 AROUND -15C.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY AS SFC HIGH
PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SFC LOW MAY KICK OFF
SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS T85 DROPS BACK INTO THE -15C RANGE.
BY SUNDAY, STRONG HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD PRODUCE A
DRY AND COLD N/NE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH
PRIMARILY SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...
MON NGT/TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY.
WED TO THU...MVFR IN -SHSN MAINLY CNTRL NY.
FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
335 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
RAIN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY CONTINUES TO DRAW MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. A LARGE BAND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD GOING INTO TONIGHT.
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE WESTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE RAINFALL BEGIN.
THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BEING FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE BAND OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME AS THE BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES
SLOWLY EAST. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT COULD CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE
OVER INCH OF STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION. WITH MOST GROUNDS STILL
SATURATED FROM RECENT SNOW MELT...SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES COULD
OCCUR EVEN WITH JUST OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER SEVERAL
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN
THE HWO. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM BOTH THE MAIN BAND
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER SECONDARY BAND DEVELOPING WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR QPF FROM THIS SECOND
BAND...EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING PORTIONS OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THESE
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT...IF ANY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MID
WEST ON TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS COMPARATIVELY TO THE START OF THE WEEK. AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THIS TROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THEREFORE KEPT ONLY 30 POPS OR LOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH SOME CAA...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS GOING ON INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THIS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGH RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP EACH DAY. IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME TIMING/STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT ISSUES
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC AND 00Z ECWMF WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND
THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER SO WILL
TRIM BACK POPS HEADING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE THEM
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK LIKE
THEY ARE TRYING TO LAY OUT A BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO OR
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER PCPN
ON INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. PTYPE THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH
LOW LEVELS COULD COOL OFF ENOUGH TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS TO THE WEST. AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD TAF SITES
FROM WEST TO EAST...ARRIVING FIRST AT CVG AND DAY AROUND 06Z. SPED
UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RAP AND NAM
MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...EVENTUALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20 KNOTS IN THE RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED AT CVG MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL
BRING SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THEY SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE FIZZLED AS THEY ENTERED OUR AREA SO REDUCED POPS
BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ALLOW ANY SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL
BRING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 10.00Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALSO SLOWED
DOWN THE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES AS OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS
WEAK. SOILS REMAIN MOIST TO SATURATED DUE TO RECENT SNOW MELT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE FOR
THIS EVENT...SO AM NOT EXPECTING RIVER FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY. MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS DUE
TO THIS THINKING.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACRS NW ZONES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PCPN THREAT ENDS.
ON TUESDAY...DIGGING S/WV WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW AS
AN UPR LVL TROUGH BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CAA AND MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...UPR LVL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST. CAA AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE VARIOUS WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY DRIFTING DOWN ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIANCE
IN BOTH STRENGTH AND TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IF WE DO GET ANY PCPN...AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS TO GET
MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW TO RAIN PTYPE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS TO THE WEST. AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD TAF SITES
FROM WEST TO EAST...ARRIVING FIRST AT CVG AND DAY AROUND 06Z. SPED
UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RAP AND NAM
MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...EVENTUALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20 KNOTS IN THE RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED AT CVG MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.AVIATION...
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTN HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTN...THOUGH NOT REALLY DROPPING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. BEFORE
THEN...THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOFT BLDU...THOUGH VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS AT KLBB WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THE SUSTAINED 30 KT AWW THRESHOLD EARLY ON...BUT WILL HOPEFULLY
REMAIN JUST BELOW. KLBB OPERATIONS HAS BEEN BRIEFED ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013/
UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z. 12Z WRF-NAM AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR NWP
SUGGEST THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
PROVIDING THE WIND WILL NOT WEAKEN MUCH UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.
THUS...WE EXPECT THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON HOUR...THOUGH THE WINDS WILL NOT REALLY
SUBSIDE UNTIL TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS. THE UPDATED FORECAST AND
HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS
PRESSURE RISES TAKE PLACE BEHIND A CANADIAN FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY. SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS RESPONSIBLE
FOR LAST NIGHT`S AND TODAY`S WEATHER APPROACH THE MIDWEST. BEFORE
THEN...A BAND OF STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...SO FOG AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER NOON...WHEN THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY EXPIRES. UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DECREASE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ONLY SEEING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP TO NEAR 10 MPH AND BELOW TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT IN WAKE
OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING
LOOK TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE...MAKING FOR ONE MORE LIGHT
FROST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND
ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
QUIET EXTENDED COMING UP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING. A
FEW MINOR RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE TO OUR NORTH
BUT WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. ECM POINTS TO A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO DAY 8 WHILE GFS
KEEPS RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE. WEAK FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MAKE IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
MODEST SOUTHERLIES TO PREVAIL. LIKELY THE MOST NOTABLE WX ITEM
THIS WEEK WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF FUEL DRYING EVIDENT WITH A
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF LOW AFTN RH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 44 25 59 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 45 25 59 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 46 26 61 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 49 28 63 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 49 28 63 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 51 29 63 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 51 29 64 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 49 30 62 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 50 31 65 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 53 30 63 31 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
23/07/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1111 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z. 12Z WRF-NAM AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR NWP
SUGGEST THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
PROVIDING THE WIND WILL NOT WEAKEN MUCH UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.
THUS...WE EXPECT THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON HOUR...THOUGH THE WINDS WILL NOT REALLY
SUBSIDE UNTIL TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS. THE UPDATED FORECAST AND
HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013/
AVIATION...
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KCDS AND KLBB. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL BLOW AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. KEPT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...BUT INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FOR KCDS
WITH STRATUS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR THIS MORNING. BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF LOW CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO MENTION.
KLBB MAY SEE A FEW PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FROM 15-18Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD HOWEVER
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND BELOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS
PRESSURE RISES TAKE PLACE BEHIND A CANADIAN FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY. SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS RESPONSIBLE
FOR LAST NIGHT`S AND TODAY`S WEATHER APPROACH THE MIDWEST. BEFORE
THEN...A BAND OF STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...SO FOG AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER NOON...WHEN THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY EXPIRES. UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DECREASE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ONLY SEEING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP TO NEAR 10 MPH AND BELOW TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT IN WAKE
OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING
LOOK TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE...MAKING FOR ONE MORE LIGHT
FROST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND
ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
QUIET EXTENDED COMING UP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING. A
FEW MINOR RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE TO OUR NORTH
BUT WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. ECM POINTS TO A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO DAY 8 WHILE GFS
KEEPS RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE. WEAK FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY MAKE IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
MODEST SOUTHERLIES TO PREVAIL. LIKELY THE MOST NOTABLE WX ITEM
THIS WEEK WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF FUEL DRYING EVIDENT WITH A
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF LOW AFTN RH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 44 25 59 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 45 25 59 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 46 26 61 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 49 28 63 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 49 28 63 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 51 29 63 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 51 29 64 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 49 30 62 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 50 31 65 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 53 30 63 31 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
23/07