Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/08/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

100 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LIGHT ECHO RETURNS WITH
OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACTUALLY REACHING THE
GROUND. WILL ONLY FORECAST SCT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
WITH POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 930 PM...LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE WEAKENED FROM A FEW HOURS
AGO. OVERALL THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY
A COATING AT MOST LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...THE
SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE AREA ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN AS THEY ARE
RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A
SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. 00Z ALY SOUNDING VERY DRY WITH
AN INVERSION AT 800 MB. OVERALL WILL ADJUST OVERNIGHT QPF VALUES
WITH THE CLIPPER. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT
NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN ACCUMULATION.

PREV DISC... PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS...A FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVE WAS CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FORCING. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUASI- FOCUSED AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE CWFA. EXPERIENTIAL
FORECAST REFLECTIVITIES LEAD BY THE HRRR ALL SUGGEST A SCATTERED
NATURE TO THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT. ALONG WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE...WE
WILL DROP BACK POPS TO THE HIGH CHC-SCT CATEGORY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER THAN THIS MORNINGS VALUES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS IN THE MORNING BEFORE THOSE
INVERSION HEIGHTS COLLAPSE TOWARD NOON. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS WE MIX UP TO 30KT
MAGNITUDES. FURTHERMORE...THOSE WINDS MAY GET FUNNELED DOWN THE
MOHAWK RIVER FOR A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THOSE WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR...INITIALLY...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL
SEND TEMPS QUICKLY DOWNWARD WITH NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A FROZEN AND PARTIAL SNOW
COVERED GROUND/. THEN WE WILL WATCH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS
STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY COMES ASHORE AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE NATION. NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TO
COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 285-290K SURFACE SUPPORTS BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SLOWLY LOWERING CPD/S TO RESULT WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
DECLINES IN THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND MAY EVEN SEE A SLOW
REBOUND TOWARD SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUE DECREASE IN THOSE CPD/S. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN THE THICKENING AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK AND THE
CHANCE FOR OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODEL QPF
SIGNALS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS ACROSS OUR REGION /THEY DO SO FURTHER
UPSTREAM/...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LESS
THAN 30MB CPD/S...WE WILL PLACE CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWFA BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AND VALUES
UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LOW LEVEL
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW DOES INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND THIS TOO SHOULD
LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 20S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO A POTENTIAL STORM
IMPACTING THE REGION. GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS AND THE PERSISTENT ECMWF
FOR THE PAST 5 RUNS WANT TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC
ENERGY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/S/ ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
INCREASE RATHER RAPIDLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND
TRAJECTORY AND MAGNITUDES...WE WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
LIKELY POPS AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS FOR
NOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AS WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE. MOST MODELS NOW ON BOARD WITH A MAJOR WINTER EVENT
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR VIRGINIA BEACH
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW ALREADY OVERSPREADING OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY SATURDAY MORNING...INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A
SNOW MIX IS A POSSIBILITY BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE
LOWER SECTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT FOR NOW WILL SAY IT IS
ALL SNOW. OTHERWISE...AN ALL-SNOW EVENT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
CONFIDENCE...WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN SWIFTLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. A FLOW TURNING NORTHERLY ENHANCED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN BY SUNDAY ENSURES THAT WE HAVE AN ALL-SNOW EVENT BEYOND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTH...SUCH THAT 6 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MOST REASONABLE...WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS...OF COURSE...TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORE IS POSSIBLE...BUT SO
IS LESS...DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BROAD-AREA SNOW-PRODUCER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE PARTLY CLOUDY
SIDE...WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO MAKE THE NIGHT A COLD ONE.
BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM THREATENS THE
REGION WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH TUESDAY BEGINNING A
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY. ON
SATURDAY...ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL FAIL TO CRACK THE FREEZING MARK.
ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS WILL MAKE IT TO AT LEAST
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND
UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BACK OFF TUESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID
40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID TEENS IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.
A FURTHER MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH BEFORE
NOONTIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KPOU/KGFL/KALB/KPSF IN TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
BRIEF LAPSES TO IFR VSBYS AT KPOU AND KPSF IN THE SNOW. A TEMPO
WAS USED TO ADDRESS THIS PRIOR TO 10Z/WED. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
INCREASE TO HIGH MVFR/VFR LEVELS BY DAYBREAK...AND CONTINUE TO REACH
VFR LEVELS BY NOONTIME.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z/WED...THEN INCREASE
FROM THE W/NW AT 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 23Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU NGT-FRI NIGHT. MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS OUR COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF SNOW.

SOME RIVER AND STREAM GAGES ARE EXPERIENCING ICE EFFECTS. ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND THICKEN ON ALL BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/VTK/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

210 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNAMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE INCLUDE PACIFIC ENERGY
BEGINNING TO ARRIVE OVER THE COASTS OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON...A DECENT IMPULSE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO RESIDE
WITHIN A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW IS PASSING TROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL BE
TO OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING. LOCAL AREA WILL ACTUALLY GET INTO A
BRIEF RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
CAN ALSO BE ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND IS LIKELY A
REFLECTION OF THE PASSING ENERGY ALOFT OVERTOP THE SEA SURFACE TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG THIS
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A REGION OF SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR THE CITRUS/HERNANDO COUNTY COASTS SOUTHWEST TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OFF PINELLAS COUNTY. THIS TROUGH WAS A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND RESULTED IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT WAS A BIT MORE ROBUST. NOW THAT THE UPPER ENERGY IS
PASSING...THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND THE CHANCES FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
IS DECREASING.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR WEST WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED ORGANIZING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO NEAR THE MS DELTA BY SUNRISE. BEST
MOISTURE...AND SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY REGION-WIDE. A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-4 WILL HOLD IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AND IN THE 50S FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY QUICKLY PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
BUT STAYS NORTH OF OUR REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE EXTENDING TO THE EAST WILL ALSO PASS TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SYNOPTIC LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE WILL ALL PASS THROUGH THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND NORTHWARD WHICH WILL MEAN A QUICK DROP OFF IN RAIN CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES...BUT THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST BY THE TIME ONE REACHES THE I-4
CORRIDOR. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND WITHIN THE
THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...WOULD EXPECT A
RATHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. LIKELY WILL SEE A LOT OF INSTABILITY
CLOUDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LIMIT OUR
TEMP RISE AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A DEVELOPING FLOW OFF THE WATER
AT MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES. THURSDAY NIGHT...INITIAL IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
QUICKLY EXITS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BEGINNING THE PROCESS TOWARD
A POTENTIALLY POWERFUL NOR`EASTER FOR THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. FOR OUR REGION IT MEANS LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC PUSH...
AND THE LEFTOVER FRONT PROGRESSING VERY SLOWLY INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF BOTH LOW LEVEL AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...ITS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS...BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT...CONTINUING THE TREND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL ADD TO THE
FRONTAL FOCUS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO BETWEEN
30-40% FOR PLACES LIKELY PUNTA GORDA AND FT. MYERS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH WILL GIVE
THE FRONT A GOOD SOUTHWARD PUSH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DELIVER A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE PENINSULA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD
WITH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND KEEPING AN E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EVENING
SURGES WILL CAUSE A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
AND COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH STALLS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. LOW WILL BE MODERATING FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS TODAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME RESTRICTED BY FOG
OVERNIGHT AT PGD BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MVFR OR IFR AT
THIS TIME.

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON FRIDAY AND
EXITS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND. WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY WINDS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
OFFSHORE WATERS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
RESULTING IN HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN FINALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. NO FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 63 79 65 76 / 10 10 20 20
FMY 62 82 65 80 / 10 10 10 30
GIF 58 81 61 80 / 10 10 20 20
SRQ 61 78 64 76 / 10 10 20 30
BKV 57 81 62 78 / 10 10 30 10
SPG 64 77 65 76 / 10 10 20 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
CHARLOTTE-LEE-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM...COLSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

1055 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNAMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE INCLUDE PACIFIC ENERGY
BEGINNING TO ARRIVE OVER THE COASTS OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON...A DECENT IMPULSE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO RESIDE
WITHIN A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW IS PASSING TROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL BE
TO OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING. LOCAL AREA WILL ACTUALLY GET INTO A
BRIEF RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
CAN ALSO BE ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND IS LIKELY A
REFLECTION OF THE PASSING ENERGY ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG
THIS SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A REGION OF SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR THE CITRUS/HERNANDO COUNTY COASTS SOUTHWEST TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OFF PINELLAS COUNTY. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND RESULTING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS BEEN A BIT MORE ROBUST. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THESE SHOWERS TO THE COAST...HAVE EXPANDED THE CHANCE POP FOR A FEW
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DOWN INTO PASCO AND PINELLAS
COUNTIES. OVERALL TROUGH MOTION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW...AND THEREFORE
STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY IF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY REACH
THE COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS PINELLAS. EVENTUALLY LATE TODAY...AS THE
UPPER ENERGY PUSHES PAST...THIS TROUGH AND RESULTING FOCUS IS LIKELY
TO WEAKEN. AT THAT TIME...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMOVE THESE SHOWER
CHANCES FROM THE FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF SKY CONDITIONS...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OUT
THERE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
DOWN TOWARD FT. MYERS. WITH TIME...EXPECT TO SEE SKIES TRANSITION TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND ALLOW FOR MORE INSOLATION AND TEMPERATURE RISE.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR WEST WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED ORGANIZING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO NEAR THE MS DELTA BY SUNRISE. BEST
MOISTURE...AND SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY REGION-WIDE. A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-4 WILL HOLD IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AND IN THE 50S FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST.

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CEILING WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND SRQ...TPA AND PIE. OVERALL RISK TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAF AS MOST SHOWERS STAY NORTH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 63 77 65 / 20 10 10 20
FMY 82 62 82 64 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 80 59 81 63 / 10 10 10 20
SRQ 77 59 78 63 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 79 56 80 61 / 40 10 20 30
SPG 77 64 77 66 / 20 10 10 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
CHARLOTTE-LEE-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...JILLSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

408 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION AND FOG DISCUSSIONS...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The large scale split flow longwave pattern during the pre-dawn
hours was highlighted by ridging over Wrn states and broad troughing
over Ern states with low over Ern Canada with axis SWD but with
decreasing amplitude leaving near zonal flow over NE Gulf region.
Weak shortwave moving across Ern third of local area. At the
surface, weak surface wave over local area with diffuse warm
frontal extending W-E from low along N FL. Trough also extends
from low SWWD into Gulf of Mex. Along and east of low/trough/
shortwave. Local radars show area of light drizzle (SE Big Bend
and adjacent GA counties). For the remainder of pre dawn hours
into this morning, as shortwave exits Ewd, the low and trough will
continue to move ESE with drizzle exiting SEWD. This reflected
well in local WRF which has last rain exiting SE Big Bend 13z-14z.

Main immediate concern is density and duration of fog resulting from
combination of boundary, high dew points and shrinking dew point
depressions, drizzle, moist ground and near calm winds. The main
focus is west of a line from Albany to Panama City where fewer
clouds will continue to favor fog altho low stratus persistS. Local
confidence tool and SREF back up fog concerns. During the pre-dawn
hours, visibilities significantly lowered across SE AL/SW GA and
portions of the Ern FL Panhandle.

At 4 AM EST...Dothan and Albany continued to report vsbys one-half
mile or below. Thus a dense fog advisory was issued for this area
until 10 AM EST. Farther east 3-6k departing cloud shield favoring
stratus with unlimited vsbys. Local RAP time height profile and
Bufkit soundings, latest GFS and VSREF all imply that while fog will
begin to lift mid-morning, low stratus will be slower to lift with
CIGS lingering for much of the day, especially Ern counties.

Otherwise, aside from a few lingering showers across mainly the
marine area, today will be a lull in rainfall before the next
shortwave/surface reflection moves w-e across area beginning
tonight. A small chance of mainly drizzle this morning and mainly
over marine area. With low clouds lingering, tweaked down inherited
max temps a degree or two especially east of Apalachicola River.
Expect highs in the low to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Despite some differences on a few of the details, the 06.00z suite
of numerical model runs appears to be in fairly good agreement
about the evolution of things in the short term period. Surface
cyclogenesis should commence tonight near coastal Louisiana ahead
of a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough that is currently
located over Baja California. This shortwave will eject quickly to
the ENE in the subtropical jet stream. The models show varying
degrees of surface cyclogenesis, but the consensus is that a
developing low will be passing very near the NW corner of our
forecast area on Thursday.

There will likely be a sizable area of moderate-heavy rainfall
associated with the developing cyclone - a few ingredients point
to this: (1) a coupled upper level jet configuration, (2) strong
low-level moisture flux and theta-e advection, -AND- (3) PWATs
around 1.5-2.0 standard deviations above normal. While heavy rain
is not in doubt somewhere in the region, the key is placement. The
recent runs of the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF all place the nose of 0-2km
moisture transport and a maximum of theta-e advection in the same
layer near or just north of the northern and western boundaries of
our forecast area. Highest PoPs and coolest temperatures were
focused in the NW third of our area. To the south of that, we may
see a few breaks of sun, better mixing, and perhaps some greater
instability. The ECMWF, GFS, and NAM all show around 400-600 j/kg
of CAPE developing between 18-00z Thursday. This also happens to
coincide with the eastward development of a mid-upper level jet
streak over the "warm sector" and a similar expansion of a plume
of steeper mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, there should be a
chance for some isolated severe storms over our area - mainly from
18z Thursday to 06z Friday. Our local confidence tool and SPC SREF
calibrated severe probabilities both indicate around 5-10%
probabilities for severe storms and this seems reasonable.

QG convergence maximum quickly shifts into the Carolinas Thursday
Night, with an opposing signal (strong QG divergence) setting in
by 06z Friday. This would correspond to large scale subsidence and
thus precipitation chances should quickly diminish Thursday
evening across much of the area.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
The period begins with zonal flow followed by a building ridge over
the weekend. The ridge flattens locally by late Tuesday as a low
pressure system translates from the Central Plains to just north of
New England. At the surface, a cold front will continue to push
through the CWA Friday with slight to low end chance PoPs. This will
be followed by the passage of a secondary but dry front Friday
night/Saturday morning as high pressure noses down the eastern
seaboard. The weekend will be dry but the next low pressure system
will rapidly lift out of the plains on Sunday into the Great Lakes
Region by Monday night dragging a cold front into the SE CONUS.
There will be a slight chance of rain for most of our CWA Monday.
Rain and possibly thunderstorms will accompany the front as it
pushes across the Tri-state region Tuesday. Temperatures will be
above seasonal levels through the extended period.

.AVIATION [through 06z Thursday]...
During the pre-dawn hours, low clouds and light rain or drizzle
continue as a surface low over the Gulf slides to the east. Areas
behind main cloud deck (KDHN, KABY, KECP) already experiencing
IFR or more likely LIFR fog and CIGS which will become increasingly
dense towards sunrise. Areas farther to the south and east and
under cloud cover will have vis and ceilings ranging from IFR to
MVFR. After 15z, VSBYS will rise to VFR but cigs will be slower to
rise with MVFR cigs lingering into the aftn, especially at KVLD
and possibly at KTLH. Generally ENE winds 5 to 10 mph after
fog/CIGS lift becoming light again after sundown. After 06z CIGS
and likely vsbys will again begin to deteriorate.

.MARINE...
Winds will begin to increase late tonight as a surface low forms
near coastal Louisiana, and then shifts ENE towards the Carolinas
tomorrow. SCEC level winds appear likely after 06z tonight, and
could last through Thursday evening. There is a chance for some
advisory-level winds, but for now the forecast does not call for
that. Seas should peak around 5 feet west of Apalachicola. Strong
onshore flow and building seas should contribute to elevated surf
and a high risk of rip currents on Thursday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH will remain safely above the levels needed to achieve red flag
criteria this week. Dispersion indices will be on the low side on
Today and Thursday. After a lull today, rain chances will increase
once again on Thursday. A drier airmass will dominate again Friday
thru Monday.

.HYDROLOGY...
Although some heavier rain is possible over the northwest part of
our area (particularly NW of a line from Panama City to Albany),
the current low river levels should limit any sort of widespread
impacts to area rivers and streams. In general, SREF and GEFS
ensemble probabilities indicate a less than 5% chance of exceeding
bankfull stage at most of the points where data is available. Some
of the smaller basins and creeks (like the Kinchafoonee Creek)
have as much as a 10-20% chance of exceeding bankfull stage based
on ensemble QPF.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 57 70 58 74 / 10 20 60 40 20
Panama City 72 60 71 60 71 / 10 20 80 30 20
Dothan 73 58 69 54 70 / 10 40 80 30 10
Albany 73 56 69 53 68 / 0 30 80 40 20
Valdosta 73 55 71 58 72 / 10 20 50 40 20
Cross City 74 56 75 59 76 / 20 10 30 30 30
Apalachicola 70 60 69 60 70 / 10 10 70 40 20

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning for Calhoun-
Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Walton-Jackson-South Walton-Washington.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-
Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-
Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.

NEAR TERM...Block
SHORT TERM...Lamers
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Block
MARINE...Lamers
FIRE WEATHER...Block
HYDROLOGY...Lamers

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

300 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2013

.NEAR TERM [through This Afternoon]...
The large scale split flow longwave pattern during the pre-dawn
hours was highlighted by ridging over Wrn states and very broad
troughing over Ern states with decreasing amplitude from N-S leaving
near zonal flow over NE Gulf region. Weak shortwave moving across
Ern third of local area. At the surface, weak surface wave over
local area with trough or warm frontal boundary bisecting the area
SWWD into Gulf of Mex. Along and east of low/trough/shortwave, local
radars show area of light rain (SE Big Bend and adjacent GA
counties) with light drizzle further upstream. For the remainder of
tonight into this morning, as shortwave exits Ewd, the low and
trough will continue to move ESE with decreasing rain and drizzle
exiting SEWD after sunrise. This reflected well in local WRF which
has last rain exiting SE Big Bend 13z-14z.

Main immediate concern is fog resulting from combination of
boundary, high dew points and shrinking dew point depressions,
drizzle, moist ground and near calm winds. The main focus will be
west of the Apalachicola where fewer clouds will continue to favor
fog altho low stratus will persist. Local confidence tool and SREF
back up fog concerns. During the pre dawn hours, visibilities
significantly lowered across SE AL/SW GA and portions of the Ern FL
Panhandle. At 2 AM EST...Dothan and Albany reported vsbys one-half
mile or below. Thus a dense fog advisory was issued for this area
until 10 AM EST. Farther east 3-6k departing cloud shield favoring
stratus with unlimited vsbys. Local RAP time height profile and
Bufkit soundings, latest GFS and NARRE all imply that while fog will
begin to lift mid-morning, low stratus will be slower to lift with
CIGS lingering for much of the day, especially Ern counties.

Otherwise, aside from a few lingering showers across mainly the
marine area, today will be a lull in rainfall before the next
shortwave/surface reflection moves w-e across area beginning
tonight. A small chance of mainly light rain or drizzle this mornnig
mainly over marine area. With low clouds lingering, tweaked down
inherited max temps a degree or two especially east of Apalachicola
River. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s.

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning for Calhoun-
Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Walton-Jackson-South Walton-Washington.

GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-
Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-
Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.

AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

NEAR TERM...Block
SHORT TERM...Lamers
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Block
MARINE...Lamers
FIRE WEATHER...Block
HYDROLOGY...Lamers

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

1235 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2013

...UPDATED FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY...

UPDATE...Visibilities have significantly lowered across SE AL/SW
GA and portions of the Ern FL Panhandle. At 12 AM EST...Dothan
...Albany and Ozark all reported vsbys one-half mile or below.
Thus a dense fog advisory was issued for this area until 10 AM EST.
local RAP time height profile and Bufkit soundings, latest GFS and
VSREF all imply that while fog will begin to lift mid-morning,,,low
clouds will linger for much of the day, especially Ern counties.
wx and sky grids updated accordingly.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
.NEAR TERM [Through 10 am Thursday...
The large scale longwave pattern during the pre-dawn hours was
highlighted by ridging over Wrn states and very broad troughing
over Ern states with decreasing amplitude from N-S leaving near
zonal flow over NE Gulf region. Weak shortwave moving across local
area. At the surface, weak surface wave over local area with
trough or warm frontal boundary bisecting the area SWWD into Gulf
of Mex. Local radars show area of light rain and drizzle along and
east of low/trough aided by shortwave, that is across Ern half of
our area.

For the remainder of tonight into this morning, as shortwave
exits Ewd, the low and trough will continue to move ESE with
decreasing rain and drizzle from exiting SEWD. This reflected well
in local WRF which has last rain exiting SE Big Bend 13z-14z. Main
immediate concern is fog resulting from combination of boundary,
high dew points and shrinking dew point depressions, drizzle, moist
ground and near calm winds. Local confidence tool and SREF
back up fog concerns. The main focus will be west of the
Apalachicola where decreasing clouds will favor fog vs stratus. Will
monitor closely in case Dense Fog Advisory is needed. Ern areas
under ample cloud cover will lean more towards low status. Even
after the rain ends, areas of fog will linger into mid morning.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Aside from a few lingering showers over the southeast Big Bend and
coastal waters, we will see one dry day Wednesday before the next
and stronger shortwave brings rain back to the region. The surface
low with this system is forecast to track east across the southern
portions of Mississippi and Alabama Thursday before crossing south
Georgia and lifting northeastward through the coastal areas of the
Carolina`s Thursday night. A southwestward trailing cold front
will cut about midway through our FA by 12z Friday. PoPs will ramp
up to likely/categorical on Thursday with forecast QPF mostly in
the 0.5" to 1.0" range from Wednesday night through Thursday
night. Min and max temperatures will be above climo.

.LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
The period begins with zonal flow followed by a building ridge over
the weekend. The ridge flattens locally by late Tuesday as a low
pressure system translates from the Central Plains to just north of
New England. At the surface, a cold front will continue to push
through the CWA Friday with slight to low end chance PoPs. This will
be followed by the passage of a secondary but dry front Friday
night/Saturday morning as high pressure noses down the eastern
seaboard. The weekend will be dry but the next low pressure system
will rapidly lift out of the plains on Sunday into the Great Lakes
Region by Monday night dragging a cold front into the SE CONUS.
There will be a slight chance of rain for most of our CWA Monday.
Rain and possibly thunderstorms will accompany the front as it
pushes across the Tri-state region Tuesday. Temperatures will be
above seasonal levels through the extended period.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00z Thursday]
Overnight low clouds and rain continue as a surface low over the
Gulf slides to the east. Areas behind main cloud deck (KDHN, KABY)
already experiencing fog which will become increasingly dense as
the night goes on. These terminals will have the greatest chance
of being impacted by LIFR fog and ceilings while areas farther to
the south and east and under cloud cover will have vis and
ceilings ranging from IFR to MVFR. After 14z, CIGS and VSBYS will
rise to VFR and should stay VFR. Generally ENE winds 5 to 10 mph
after fog/cigs lift becoming light after sundown.

.MARINE...
A weak area of low pressure will move across or just north of the
local waters tonight with winds gradually veering to become
offshore. Winds should be below headline criteria at least through
Wednesday night. By Thursday, a stronger storm system will approach
from the west with onshore winds briefly increasing to cautionary
levels. Light to moderate winds swing around to become offshore on
Friday and then east to southeast over the weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH will remain safely above the levels needed to achieve red flag
criteria this week. Dispersion indices will be on the low side on
Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances will increase once again on
Thursday.

.HYDROLOGY...
Despite increased rain chances this week, rainfall totals are
expected to remain low, with minimal impact on area rivers and
streams.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 57 72 59 76 48 / 30 70 40 20 10
Panama City 61 74 61 70 54 / 30 80 30 20 10
Dothan 58 71 55 71 47 / 30 80 40 20 10
Albany 54 70 55 70 46 / 30 80 50 20 10
Valdosta 55 70 60 75 49 / 10 60 40 30 10
Cross City 54 75 60 76 50 / 20 50 40 30 10
Apalachicola 60 71 61 70 54 / 30 70 40 20 10

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Calhoun-
Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Walton-Jackson-South Walton-Washington.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-
Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-
Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.

Block

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1043 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SRN SC COAST WILL DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT TO THE PEE DEE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED WITH A FEW AREAS 2 TO
3 INCHES TOTAL QPF. WILL CUT POPS BACK ACROSS THE CSRA AND MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES RAIN WILL
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST AREAS AND WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY. GIVEN
DECREASING PWAT VALUES AND DOWNSLOPING 850MB FLOW...FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DRY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SATURDAY.
HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN THE LONG TERM SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST ON
THE LATEST RUN. ALL THE ENERGY IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ANYWAY. WHILE
THE UPPER FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FROM MAINLY THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER FLOW GENERALLY PARALLEL TO ANY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THIS WOULD INDICATE NOT MUCH FRONTAL MOVEMENT TO EITHER
THE NORTH OR TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO STAY RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. BOTH
MODELS SHOW SOME WAVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BY WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH ON THE FRONT. WHILE
THE GFS DEVELOPS A PRETTY VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE WHICH MOVES EAST
AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...DECIDED TO KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH FRONT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DECIDED TO
MAKE THOSE DAYS THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
SUNDAY AND MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. AS FRONT SAGS TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WENT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT WARMER TO START THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN IN THE 40S WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FINALLY BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY.

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PUSHING ENE UP THE SC COAST. WEDGE CONDITIONS
OVER OUR FA WITH LOW CLOUDS...AND REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO RAIN. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AND LATEST RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST RAIN WILL END
SHORTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. PREMISE FOR TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN
VSBYS...AND POSSIBLY CIGS...AFTER RAIN ENDS AND AS WINDS SHIFT TO N
OR NNW BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT WORKS RAPIDLY UP THE SC/NC
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH WEDGE IN PLACE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO
THE REGION...SOME DETERIORATION IN CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SLACK OFF LATE SOME AS LOW MOVES
FURTHER NE. MIXED SIGNALS IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO...LIMITED
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF CIGS/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY AFTER RAIN ENDS...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A CONTINUED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT SOME
POINT FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH TIMING UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTER CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE IN THE MORNING. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL ROLL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCE OF PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

906 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE COLUMBIA AREA AT 02Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE COLUMBIA AREA
AT 02Z...MOISTURE FLUX AND RESULTING RAIN SHIELD WILL SHIFT TO
THE PEE DEE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO
THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED WITH A FEW AREAS
2 TO 3 INCHES TOTAL QPF. WILL CUT POPS BACK ACROSS THE CSRA AND
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES RAIN WILL
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST AREAS AND WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS S GA. WEDGE CONDITIONS
OVER OUR FA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO RAIN. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AND LATEST RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST CONTINUED RAIN FOR
AGS/DNL UNTIL AROUND 10PM OR SO...AND UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO AT
CAE/CUB/OGB. PREMISE FOR TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS...AND
POSSIBLY CIGS...AFTER RAIN ENDS AND AS WINDS SHIFT TO N OR NNW
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT WORKS UP THE CAROLINA COAST.
HOWEVER...WITH WEDGE IN PLACE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO THE
REGION...SOME DETERIORATION IN CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. SO...LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF CIGS/VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AFTER RAIN ENDS...ALTHOUGH
SOME RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH TIMING UNCERTAIN. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTER CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE IN THE MORNING.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL ROLL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
IMPACT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCE OF PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

745 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION/UPDATE...
CONTD NORTHWEST/LEFT SHIFT OF SFC LOW TRACK DRAW INTO NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF/HGHT FALL CENTER AS IT QUICKLY AMPLIFIES TO 100-130
M/12 HR FALLS ACRS SRN GRTLKS. WITH FALL CENTER INITIALLY WELL
LAGGED...EVOLVES TO A CLOSELY STACKED SFC-MIDTROPOSPHERIC SYSTEM BY
12 UTC FRI. THROUGH THE EVENING A SHARPER NW/N PULL OF MAX TW WITHIN
LWST HALF KM MATERIALIZES /WELL CAPTURED PER RAP ANALYSIS/ TO THEN
ABRUPTLY COLLAPSE PER INTENSE DYNAMIC COOLING AND UNQUESTIONABLY
EVAP COOLING SPCLY SERN HALF OF CWA. ONLY FAR SERN THERMAL PROFILE
TO SUPPORT LIQUID BYND 06 UTC. GIVEN A MORE ABRUPT THERMAL COLLAPSE
ANTICIPATE MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW EVENT ACRS CWA. STILL ANTICIPATE
SOME SLEET SPCLY ACRS NRN CWA WITH MORE ENVIGORED DEEP/UVM NORTH OF
INTENSE LLVL FGEN FOCUS. RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY ERASURE OF MSTR DEPTH AS DRY SLOT CONTS ENE ADVANCE. SHORT
SNOWFALL WINDOW ALONG WITH ANTECEDENT WARM/WET SFC SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMS AND WL ADJUST DOWNWARD. STILL CHC OF FZDZ/FLURRIES MIX NEAR
DAYBREAK/FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF MIDLVL TROF/DCVA.

FOR AVN CONCERNS...SHARP/DEEP COOLING TO BRING RAPID SATURATION AND
ASSOCD LWR CIGS/BR FORMATION. AT KSBN QUICK TRANSITION FM VFR AT
PRESENT TO IFR/LIFR MET CONDS PROBABLE BY ABOUT 03-04 UTC. LIQUID TO
FROZEN/LIQUID MIX TO ALL SNOW IN RAPID SUCCESSION. WIND SHIFT/DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO BRING RAPID VSBY INCRS IN EARLY AM HOURS WITH CIGS
EVENTUALLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE FUEL ALT AROUND 14 UTC. AT KFWA
SUSPECT A MORE ABRUPT CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN WITH STRONGEST LIFT/SLEET
POTNL REMAINING NORTH. AND AGAIN ABOVE FUEL ALT IN LATE AM HOURS.
CHCS FOR FZDZ/FLURRIES IN 10-14 UTC TIMEFRAME REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION ATTM.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

POTENTIAL OF MIXED PRECIP AND ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE CURRENT ONLY
EXPECTED CHANGE TO HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z.

SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER VORT MAX APPROACHING WESTERN IOWA
DIVES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. WHILE AN OVERALL SLOWING TREND
HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANOTHER FACTOR
FOR SLOW PRECIP ARRIVAL FOR LOCAL AREA IS NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF
POCKET OF DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR THAT HAS BEEN RESIDING ACROSS THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SNOW COVER HAS BEEN LACKING.

LOW/MID LEVEL THETA ADVECTION TO RAMP UP TOWARD EVENING AS UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW PRECIP SHIELD TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TOWARD 00Z...AND LIKELY REACHING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
THE 04Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. EVEN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH MOST OF BERRIEN COUNTY SHOULD RECEIVE MAINLY RAIN
AS PRECIP MOVES IN...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WHERE SFC WET BULBS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
925 HPA HEIGHT MINIMUM SHOULD TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
JUST AFTER 00Z RESULTING IN COLD ADVECTION PUSH TO SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PROFILES LOOK MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE A MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY HAS
MAINTAINED A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER. THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED FREEZING RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.

CONCERNS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL INTACT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ALL SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING/EARLY PORTIONS OF OVERNIGHT THAT
COULD RESULT IN A QUICK 1 TO 3 OR 2 TO 4 INCH TYPE ACCUMULATION
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN COUNTIES. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN
AMOUNTS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW BASED ON EXACT CHANGEOVER
TIMING...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME GOOD SNOWFALL RATES FOR AT LEAST A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD. BY LATE
EVENING...THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A MORE FAVORABLE OVERLAY BETWEEN
DEEPER UVM INDUCED FROM MORE ELEVATED MID LEVEL FRONTO FORCING AND
DGZ. INGREDIENTS METHOD APPROACH STILL INDICATES THE MOST PRONOUNCED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRECEDING SATURATED CONDITIONS. HOWEVER SOME
SIGNAL NOTED IN NAM QVEC/EPV ANALYSIS OF BETTER OVERLAPPING OF
FORCING/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
WEAK TROWAL FEATURE TRIES TO DEVELOP. SOME HESITATION TO GO WITH
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS LOCATION HOWEVER DUE TO A LONGER
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS.

SECONDARY UPPER SPEED MAX TO DIVE THROUGH BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD RAPIDLY
WORK INTO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING
FROM AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE/SPEED MAX MAY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT THIS TIME IMPACTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE
QUITE LOW AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONLY THROUGH
12Z. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS
WILL ERODE GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE SKY COVER MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY /

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY...FILLING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT WORKING EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FAR WEST TRACK OF THE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE
AND EARLY OCCLUSION PINCHING OFF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD COMBINE TO
LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS AND DURATION SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
A DECENT/WIDESPREAD 0.25-0.50" OF RAIN WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS RANGE BEING TIMING.

LEFTOVER/FRACTURED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
POSITIONED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY....WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A FILLING LOW
WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY TO
QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEPER MIXING IN LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION (DRY SLOT ALOFT) REGIME ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN A WINDY/DRY DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING
LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING PER
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ITERATIONS.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO DROP SE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH AN EMBEDDED
SOUTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY THAT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE TO WORK
GIVEN A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL JET CONNECTION.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUPPRESSION WITH
LEFTOVER NORTHERN STREAM CONFLUENCE SHUNTING THE DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IWX CWA. SUBTLE CHANGES IN MASS
FIELDS/NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE AND THIS WINTER STORM COULD TRACK
FARTHER TO THE NORTH BECOMING A CONCERN LOCALLY. FOR NOW WILL BUY
INTO THE DRY/SOUTH MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ078>081.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
&&

SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
UPDATE/AVIATION...MURPHY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

322 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 256 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BACK IN THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 256 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY IS HOW LONG THIS PESKY STRATUS DECK
WHICH IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA HOLD ON FOR? WHILE
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING...BASED ON TRENDS AM BEGINNING TO DOUBT THIS. THINK THE HRRR
HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS DECK...KEEPING IT AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...ACTUALLY UNTIL 20-21Z. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HELD ONTO
THE OVERCAST CLOUDS UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AND BEGIN PARTLY CLOUDY
BY 18Z. NOTE THIS DOES NOT APPLY FOR THE SW CORNER FOR FA WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT IN THE LAST HOUR. SKIES LOOK TO GO BKN
EARLY THIS EVENING.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY AS
CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE DAY. HIGH 32(NE) TO 42(SW).

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 256 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS LATER TIMING AND THE
TRENDS CONTINUES. AGAIN...FORCING IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO ONLY
WENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON...THEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIKELY RAIN WITH LOWERING POPS BACK TO CHANCE BY
MIDNIGHT. APPEARS PRECIP TYPE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK VERY MINIMAL. NO MORE THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH AT BEST OVERALL FOR ENTIRE EVENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 256 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE DATA CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING THE MAIN TIME
FRAME FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT AS UPPER ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH A PIECE
OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW. JUST ABOUT ALL
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECTING RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 060900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM WED FEB 6 2013

MVFR CEILINGS 015-020 HAVE BEEN HOLDING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE THAT THESE CEILINGS WILL
BREAK UP ANYTIME SOON. CHANCES OF THIS DECK MIXING OUT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

WILL BACK OFF ON THE DISSIPATION OF THE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE UPDATE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
BELOW 7 KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS REACHED ALL THE SITES AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAP 900MB RH PROGS MIMIC THE CLOUD DECK FAIRLY
WELL AND SHOW THEM CLEARING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 9-10Z AT
ALL SITES BUT KLAF...WHERE THEY HANG ON INTO THE MORNING. WIND
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS OVER KIND AND KHUF SHOULD END BY 8Z AND
SUSTAINED WINDS AFTER THAT WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND DAYBREAK.
VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO MVFR AS WINDS LIGHTEN AS WELL...BUT
SHOULD NOT DROP ANY FURTHER DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF TIME THE CLOUDS
HAVE STUCK AROUND. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD CHANGE TO SOUTHEAST BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP/JAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

305 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 256 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 256 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

WENT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY AS
CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE DAY. HIGH 32(NE) TO 42(SW).

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 256 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 256 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 060600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1117 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1123 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

A QUICK MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING ALLOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR RAIN...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 954 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

FEW FLURRIES HAVE DRIFTED THROUGH THE METRO OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
SO. RADAR SHOWS A DIMINISHING TREND TO FLURRIES AS THEY HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF INDIANAPOLIS. WITH SUCH LITTLE COVERAGE
LEFT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MENTION OF FLURRIES GOING FORWARD FOR THE
NIGHT.

STRATUS DECK ON THE OTHER HAND IS HOLDING ITS OWN OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS CYCLONIC FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MAKING QUICK PROGRESS
ALREADY INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS AS OF 0130Z BUT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO A MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
ANTICIPATE BACK EDGE OF CLOUD DECK WILL SLOW A BIT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUPPORT THIS THINKING...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS THIS EVENING...BUMPED UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ZONAL
FLOW TO SUBTLE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...AGAIN JUST
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED..THUS PARTLY CLOUDY
AGAIN. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THUS WILL TREND TO WARMER SIDE OF A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD AND ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW
DEEP SATURATION BY 00Z FRIDAY. WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND GOOD DYNAMICS THAT APPEAR
IN PLACE...INGREDIENTS FOR A PRECIP EVENT LOOK PRETTY GOOD. LOWER
LEVELS OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND AND THURSDAY EVENING PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WAA AND PRECIP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL STICK TO THE WARMER
SIDE A MAVMOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF TIME
FOR HEATING PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET. WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS FOR NOW
AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR
MAY ARRIVE.

ON FRIDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY AS A LARGE
AREA OF COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION...SETTLING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT
AT SOME TRAPPED STRATOCU...THUS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD
WORK FINE. WILL LEAN COLDER THAN MEXMOS HIGHS GIVE THE COLD POLAR
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 208 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE
USED FOR MOST ITEMS.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE REMOVED ALLBLENDS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY RAIN WILL
BECOME LIKELY. HAVE ACCEPTED ALLBLEND POPS HERE. MODELS ARE
TRENDING DRIER ON MONDAY NIGHT...SO WENT DRY THERE AS WELL.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 060600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1117 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

926 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE SNOW HAS ENDED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA. A ROUGH TIMING OF THE
BACK EDGE SUGGESTS THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA AROUND 05Z.

AMOUNT WISE...IT APPEARS THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES FELL IN THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR EAST OF KDBQ DOWN INTO CARROLL COUNTY. THESE NUMBERS ARE
BASED ON WHAT SPOTTER REPORTS WE HAVE RECEIVED SO FAR.

SOME MINOR TWEEKS HAVE BEEN DONE TO THE FCST FOR THE ENDING OF THE
SNOW. ALSO...BASED ON SATELLITE AND RAP TRENDS...CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT IS VERY DOUBTFUL AND HAVE KEPT THE AREA CLOUDY ALL NIGHT
WITH CLEARING FRIDAY MORNING. CAA IS SLOWLY DROPPING THE
TEMPERATURES BUT THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE TOO COLD BY 2-4
DEGREES BASED ON CLOUDY SKIES. ...08..

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

AVIATION...
SNOW AT KDBQ AND MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT KMLI WITH OCCASIONAL
LIFR CONDITIONS TO EXIT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST WILL
PERSIST REST OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 10-15+ KTS
AND GUSTY TONIGHT WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ON
FRIDAY... ANTICIPATE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN... WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY 00Z
SATURDAY. NW WINDS 10-15+ KTS TO DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS WHILE
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO WI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 850MB LOW IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITH
ANOTHER IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A MOISTURE PLUME RAN FROM THE
GULF UP INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A STRONGER MOISTURE
PLUME OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MIX AND
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ROUGHLY ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW WEST OF KMUT WITH A WARM FRONT
RUNNING ROUGHLY EAST ALONG I-80. THE COLD FRONT RAN SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL INVERTED TROFS RAN FROM THE LOW INTO
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND
50S ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH 20S AND 30S OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN HAS ALLOWED A MIX AND
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR EAST OF KDBQ. CAA IS
NOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA BUT NO DYNAMIC
COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS OCCURRED YET.

PER THE RAP TRENDS...DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PUSH THE MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM ROUGHLY THE MISSISSIPPI ON EAST AND
NORTH OF I-80. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5 INCHES ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR
EAST OF KDBQ.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE RAIN
ENDING AND THE COLD AIR ARRIVING. TRENDS WITH THE RAP SUGGEST A MIX
DEVELOPING JUST PRIOR TO THE RAIN ENDING OVER THE WESTERN HALF WITH
THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT ABOUT I-80.

THUS THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS ONE OF PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BY MID EVENING AREAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A KDBQ TO KMQB LINE SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO DOWNWARD
MOTION AND INCREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE LARGE EXTENT OF
LOW CLOUDS UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INDICATES THAT CLEARING WILL
BE SLOW TO OCCUR. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING OCCURRING IN ERNEST STARTING AROUND SUNRISE.

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. ..08..

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
OUR ATTENTION THIS LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE
SYNOPTIC STORM SET FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL AND
CONUS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON GENERAL DETAILS SHOWING A
DEEP/CLOSED UPPER TROF EXITING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY...SWEEPING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN MN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PATH WILL BRING STRONG
SOUTH WINDS...AND MILD AIR TO THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH PROBABILITY RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET MUCH
HIGHER GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ALL MODELS SHOW WRAP
AROUND OCCLUDED LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS EITHER IN OUR NORTH
HALF...OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA BORDER. THUS...SOME LOW POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NORTH...AND DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS ALL UNFOLDS...THEY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE MILD SIDE OF A GUIDANCE BLEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST GIVEN OUR HIGHLY CHANGEABLE SNOW COVER SITUATION TODAY. AT
THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR MOST IF NOT ALL SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE COLD INTRUSION BEHIND THIS LARGE SYSTEM MAY
LACK MUCH POTENCY.

ERVIN

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

602 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION...
SNOW AT KDBQ AND MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT KMLI WITH OCCASIONAL
LIFR CONDITIONS TO EXIT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST WILL
PERSIST REST OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 10-15+ KTS
AND GUSTY TONIGHT WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ON
FRIDAY... ANTICIPATE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN... WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY 00Z
SATURDAY. NW WINDS 10-15+ KTS TO DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS WHILE
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO WI.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. ..08..

ERVIN

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

512 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE STRATUS MOVING SOUTH ALONG
THE MO RIVER VERY WELL. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...IT LOOKS
LIKE MVFR CIGS WILL CLIP TOP WHILE REMAINING JUST EAST OF FOE. DO
NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MODELS SHOWING THE STRATUS AS TEMPORARY
GIVEN THE EXTENT OF IT TO THE NORTH. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS AT TOP AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IF
STRATUS DOES NOT MOVE IN...THERE COULD BE SOME GROUND FOG AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN. THIS MAY END UP BEING A BIGGER ISSUE FOR MHK
WHERE THE STRATUS IS LESS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO. OBJECTIVE MOS
GUIDANCE AND SREF PROBABILITIES FOR FOG ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP VSBY ABOVE 6SM AND MONITOR CONDITIONS.

WOLTERS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /313 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE TAIL-END OF THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS
WERE SKIMMING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE COLD FRONT HAVING PROGRESSED EAST OF THE CWA EARLIER TODAY.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY UNDER THIS SURFACE HIGH AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DECK SOUTHWARD INTO EXTREME
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE RAP IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN HOLDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWS THE DRY AIR THAT IS
WEST OF THE CWA PREVAILING AND RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WHETHER THIS STRATUS DECK
STRETCHES INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO IMPACT WHETHER THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HAVE NOT ADDED ANY MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE STRATUS DECK...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE 20S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

ACH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN CO DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THEN DEEPEN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD
OF THE LEE SURFACE LOW WILL ADVECT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN KS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF SHOW MUCAPE
INCREASING TO 300 TO 700 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA...THUS SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ABOUT 50 TO 60 KTS...THUS SOME OF THE STRONGER ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE MAY RECEIVE A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
KS INTO SOUTHWEST MN WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NE INTO NORTH CENTRAL IA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...AND WILL
BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
STATE LINE...THOUGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS MAY BE
REACHED AROUND NOON...WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS INTO NM...THEN WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH TX AND OK WHILE SHEARING OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THE
STRONGER ASCENT AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL OCCUR WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND OK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. IF THE COLD FRONT
IS A BIT FASTER...THEN HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE CAT OR TWO
COOLER. THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS H5 TROUGH WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

GARGAN

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

356 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

THE 06.12Z 250 RAOB SYNOPTIC MAP SHOWED ANTICYCLONIC JET FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US AND EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. A JET
STREAK OF AROUND 125 KT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS WISCONSIN. FAIRLY LIGHT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH ONLY 30 KT
AT KDDC. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. A FEW SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND TEXAS.
AT 700 HPA, TEMPERATURES WERE AT ZERO CENTIGRADE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...INDICATING A WAA PATTERN STILL IN PLACE. THE
WARM PLUME AT 850 HPA WAS VERY EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
VALUES IN THE 8 TO 12 DEG C RANGE. AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED
ALONG WITH THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING
IN FROM OKLAHOMA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

TONIGHT:

SEVERAL SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FIRST IS FOG. HRRR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING LOW VISIBILITIES
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THE NAM AND ARW-WRF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG.
DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE
AND THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WITH AREAS OF FOG
ALONG SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. THE NEXT CONCERN
IS CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. HERE WARM AIR ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 295 KELVIN THETA SURFACE... AND INCREASING 850-650 HPA
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.
ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK THERMODYNAMICS AND
WEAK KINEMATICS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY DAWN.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW MORNING, BUT DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ONE THIS EARLY.

TOMORROW:

TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE BREEZY AS THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH 45 KT 850 HPA WINDS PARTIALLY MIXING DOWN.
NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE
LINGERING FOG, TOMORROW WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S DEG F. WINDS SHOULD ABATE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE,
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION FRIDAY, THEN TURN EASTWARD
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
EARLY FRIDAY DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF KANSAS
WITH H85 DEWPOINTS CLIMBING JUST ABOVE 0C. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD GENERALLY INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE AS WELL WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A STRONG H5 VORT
MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. A +100KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO BE STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE PLAINS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
LATE SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH CHANCES FOR THE
PRECIP DWINDLING TOWARD THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A REAL LACK OF INSTABILITY LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY EVEN AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL TURN WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL DO
LITTLE TO ERODE THE COOLER AIR MASS THAT IS PROJECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM JUST
ABOVE 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST ABOVE 5C ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS SUNDAY WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS
A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MORE COLDER
DOWN INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

AN AREA OF LOW MVFR CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS,
CONTINUES TO ERODE THIS LATE MORNING WITH LITTLE IF ANY REMNANT
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO, WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY THIS WILL RESULT IN BRISK SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND WINDS TURN LIGHT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, VISIBILITY VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO AN IFR RANGE
OF 1 TO 3 MILES MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. FURTHER, SOME
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST
OF THE DODGE CITY TERMINAL DURING THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OTHERWISE, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, MAY CLIP THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS THIS EVENING TO
EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AND CONDITIONS TURN
DRY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 40 54 27 56 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 36 53 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 34 51 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 37 53 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 39 53 25 55 / 40 0 0 0
P28 48 55 30 56 / 80 50 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

236 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

TONIGHT:

TOMORROW:

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
PROGRESS INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE MORNING. THUS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE 50S. THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TO THE GULF COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST COAST. BY FRIDAY, THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE TRAPPED IN SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO REACH THE 50S AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH EDGES INTO UTAH AND ARIZONA, THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT EVEN BY 12Z SATURDAY, THE LOW STRATUS AND GULF
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY, THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, WITH MID LEVEL COOLING
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE WARM SECTOR. BY
LATE AFTERNOON, SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND ENOUGH SURFACE BASED CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME
OF YEAR, INSTABILITY WILL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE STRONG
SHEAR. BUT SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED
COLD 500MB TEMPERATURES (-20C) AND 40-45F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT IN A
WEAKENED STATE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS. BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A CANADIAN OR ARCTIC AIRMASS, SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S ON
SUNDAY, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY
MONDAY, BUT HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS STRONG SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 40 54 27 56 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 36 53 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 34 51 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 37 53 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 39 53 25 55 / 40 0 0 0
P28 48 55 30 56 / 80 50 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...AJOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1204 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY, A WARM AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO
AROUND 12 CELSIUS. ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER SOUTH WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. SOME LOW STRATUS
AND FOG IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY AND PRATT BY 9 AM, THEM MOVING
NORTH TO AROUND HAYS BY 11 AM. AS LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING, THE AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK IN THE MID MORNING TO AROUND NOON. OVER THE WEST
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH 2O TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE VERY
MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY AND MEADE WEST TO
THE COLORADO BORDER, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER EAST IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LOOKING AT CURRENT HRRR MODEL WILL GO AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOR ADVISORY
TILL 11 AM THIS MORNING FROM LIBERAL NORTH TO GARDEN CITY AND EAST
TO LARNED AND ST. JOHN AND SOUTH TO THE OK BORDER. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG RAPIDLY APPROACHING KANSAS BORDER. WITH SOUTH WINDS DO NOT
EXPECT THE FOG TO BE DENSE FOR LONG IN ANY ONE AREA. THE FRONT EDGE
MAY HAVE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

LATER TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH
SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND AND EAST
THIS EVENING AND END BY 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MEDICINE LODGE
AREA. THIS AREA IN MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 300 TO 800 J/KG FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 38 55 28 / 10 20 10 0
GCK 64 36 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 69 35 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 68 38 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 58 37 54 28 / 10 20 0 0
P28 57 44 57 31 / 10 70 50 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...AJOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1033 AM MST WED FEB 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED FEB 6 2013

TODAY-TONIGHT...CURRENTLY WATCHING A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
MOVING TOWARD THE KS/OK BORDER. VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE LOW CLOUDS
ARE AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE. 06Z RUC/NAM HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND
THE AIRMASS NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY
15Z THEN SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL WAIT TIL JUST
BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE TO SEE WHAT 09Z RUC/07Z HRRR HAVE...MAY NEED
TO BEEF UP THE CLOUDS AND ADD SOME FOG. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUN THIS MORNING BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL OUT EAST TIL THE FRONT AND
INCREASING NORTH WINDS CAN PUSH IT OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE COOLER THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED IF LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT MID 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOW 30S FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUNNY DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR DURING
THE NIGHT WITH UPPER FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY DURING
THE DAY...A BIT LESS DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY WITH HIGHS WARMING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 50S WHILE LOWS
MILD IN THE 30S.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MST TUE FEB 5 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM TO START THIS PERIOD. CUT OFF LOW WILL ORGANIZE OVER
COLORADO ON SATURDAY AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT TRACK...WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE DRY SLOT WHICH COULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE A WINTER STORM BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ALL SNOW
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WINDING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
MODELS NOT GENERATING A PARTICULARLY LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW AT THIS
POINT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...SOME LIGHT SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED FEB 6 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. ALL OF THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME GUSTY LATER
THIS EVENING...15 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 27KTS OR SO...AS
A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS EAST.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

913 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

DENSE FOG IS LOCATED ALONG THE THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA. THE FOG
WAS DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENCOUNTERING
AIR THAT HAS UNDERGONE RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS THE CLOUD DECK
ADVANCES OVER KDDC AND KGCK BY 14Z, A BRIEF PERIOD OF 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE
VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STRATUS ARRIVES, FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR VISBYS AND IFR/MVFR CIGS AFTER 15 OR 16Z. VFR CIGS AND VISBYS
WILL RETURN AFTER 19Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING. BY 03Z, MOIST SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESUME AND FOG AND STRATUS COULD RETURN TO
DDC, BUT PROBABLY NOT GCK/HYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 38 55 28 / 10 20 10 0
GCK 65 36 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 69 35 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 69 38 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 56 37 54 28 / 10 20 0 0
P28 57 44 57 31 / 10 70 50 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ063>066-
076>081-086>090.

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

555 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 37 55 28 / 10 20 10 0
GCK 67 33 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 69 32 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 69 35 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 63 36 54 28 / 10 20 0 0
P28 64 43 57 31 / 10 70 50 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ063>066-
076>081-086>090.

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DODGE CITY KS

403 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2013

NEW RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. WILL BRING IN IFR CONDITIONS FROM 14-17Z
AT KDDC AND FROM 17-19Z AT KHYS. AT KGCK IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRATUS
MAY JUST MISS TO THE EAST. SOUTH WINDS THEN ARE FORECAST AT
15-25KT WITH THE STRATUS TRYING TO BREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING WITH FROPA
AROUND 02-04Z FROM KGCK TO KHYS, THEN AROUND 05-07Z AT KDDC. A FEW
THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FROPA MAINLY AFTER 06Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 37 55 28 / 10 20 10 0
GCK 67 33 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 69 32 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 69 35 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 63 36 54 28 / 10 20 0 0
P28 64 43 57 31 / 10 70 50 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ063>066-
076>081-086>090.

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...KRUSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

354 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2013

TONIGHT:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN OUT LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHWARD
FROM TEXAS, ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS HALF OF THE
REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM IS SUGGESTING DENSE FOG TOMORROW
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AS RAP/SREF
/ARW-WRF KEEP THE DENSE FOG SOUTH. ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER. OTHERWISE, WE WILL
SEE HIGHER MINIMUMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT - GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S DEG F.

TOMORROW:

TOMORROW WILL BE A WARM DAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AROUND
15 DEG C ACROSS FAR SW KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH NEAR 70 DEG F IN THIS AREA
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WILL BE IN THE 60S
DEG F. TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS 20-30 KT 850 HPA WINDS ARE FORECAST
AND THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN A BIT. LASTLY, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
DURING MY PERIOD AS FORCING WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2013

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 37 55 28 / 10 20 10 0
GCK 67 33 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 69 32 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 69 35 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 62 36 54 28 / 10 20 0 0
P28 64 43 57 31 / 10 70 50 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...KRUSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

230 AM MST WED FEB 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED FEB 6 2013

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MST TUE FEB 5 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED FEB 6 2013

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KGLD AND KMCK. JUST A FEW MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR KGLD SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 12-13KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BY 20Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR KMCK LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH UNDER
10KTS BY 22-23Z THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT 15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS SHORTLY AFTER DARK AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1153 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2013

TONIGHT:

TOMORROW:

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2013

TODAY`S MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND
PREVIOUS RUNS REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPLIT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN WEAKER PORTION MOVES OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
PART. AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT, THE AREA WILL COME UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE AREA GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FAIRLY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE WAVE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE COLD FRONT EAST AND SOUTH OUT
OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING AN END TO ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT WAVE
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z UKMET AND GFS MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO
FOLLOW SUITE BUT CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER. THE
CANADIAN HAS FLIPPED TO A MORE OPEN WAVE. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND,
I STILL DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION. FOR THE
MOST PART, HOWEVER, WE SHOULD SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW, WE COULD SEE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2013

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 64 36 54 / 0 10 20 0
GCK 30 63 32 52 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 32 66 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 30 69 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 31 61 34 53 / 0 10 20 0
P28 35 65 41 56 / 0 10 70 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

854 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

HI RES MODELS ARE MUCH QUICKER ON BLOWING THIS FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN
MAY COME TO AN END BY LATE MORNING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND
PERHAPS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FOR AREAS CLOSER TO I-75. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AGAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS WET
TOMORROW MORNING. LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED BY STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS.
CONSIDERING THIS WOULD BE UPSLOPE FLOW FOR US AND GIVEN THE CLOUDS
ALREADY IN PLACE...WE MAY NOT CLEAR OUT AS ADVERTISED TOMORROW.
THUS...IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY WE WILL STAY SOCKED IN TOMORROW. THIS
LIKELY WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON HIGHS AS THE HIGH SHOULD LIKELY
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO REFINE THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
THE HELP OF THE HRRR AND RUC. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 1 AM TONIGHT AND REACH OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND 7 OR 8 AM. ALSO INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE GIVEN THE GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF
MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SENT GRIDS TO NDFD AND WILL
BE UPDATED THE ZFP SHORTLY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

THE MODELS WERE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE
FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE NEW WEATHER FORECAST FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...AND THE STRENGTH OF AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO SPREAD ITS PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE ONE
THING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DO IS SPREAD ITS CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. EVENTUALLY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT. THE WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS IT DOES SO A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH IT. THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED. COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...PAVING THE WAY FOR A FRIGID
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE AREA...AFTER HIGHS ON FRIDAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. RIDGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH PINWHEELING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA AS
IT BRUSHES BY KENTUCKY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
QUITE SIMILAR WITH THIS SO A CONSENSUS LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MORE
CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE FOR MID WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. THE
MODELS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WHEN IT COMES TO THIS WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS CORE ENERGY THAN THE GFS AND THE FLATTER GEM.
THE ENSEMBLES OF THE ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE THE MORE REASONABLE
SOLUTION SPECTRUM WITH THIS IN KEEPING THE STREAMS SEPARATE UNTIL
EVERYTHING GETS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE FAVORED
A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE LEANING MORE ON THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS FOR THE LATER PARTS OF THE
EXTENDED.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS AND THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM ON THE WAY OUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER COMES IN ON SUNDAY WITH
PLENTY OF WARM AIR TO MAKE THE PCPN FALL AS ALL LIQUID. THIS WETTER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
DECENT BOUT OF RAIN APPEARING LIKELY. THE COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THIS WILL STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...AS IT HAS FOR MUCH
OF THE WINTER. A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH
ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL OF RIDING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO GIVE EAST KENTUCKY SOME MIXED PCPN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS WAVE AND
WILL DRY THE REGION BACK OUT AS FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN A BIT HEAVY ON THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED WITH RESPECT TO POP AND SKY. HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS TO SOME EXTENT IN FAVOR OF THE MORE SUPPRESSED ECMWF
SOLUTION. MADE JUST SOME SMALL TERRAIN BASED TWEAKS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...MONDAY...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SOLIDLY IN PLACE THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...CIGS WILL CRASH QUICKLY WITH UPSTREAM OBS INDICATING
CIGS AS LOW AS 400-600 FEET. THUS...THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY SHUT DOWN
AIRPORTS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN CIGS IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW...LIFTING TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL
CLEAR OUT. PLENTY OF STRATUS EXTENDS WELL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
IOWA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. IF THIS CONTINUES TO FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN THE POTENTIAL CLEARING WILL BE VERY QUESTIONABLE.
THUS...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CIG FORECAST AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

549 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...LINE OF SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA AROUND 22Z...SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00Z AND
02Z...REACHING FAR WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN 02Z
AND 03Z...THEN INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY LATE
THIS EVENING. THE NAM12 AND RUC LINE UP WELL WITH THIS
TIMING...AND THE NAM HAS PRECIP CLEARING THE PAH FA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR A LEAST A
FEW HOURS SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 10Z. INCLUDED
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OCCASIONALLY SHOWING A
FEW STRIKES IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NAM AND SREF SHOWING NEAR
ZERO LI`S MAKING IT INTO THE AREA....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RH TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE
LOTS OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

00Z AND 12Z RUNS CONFIRM A FASTER APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE WEEKEND
WEATHER SYSTEM OF NOTE. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW TRACKING THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LOWS FROM THE PLAINS STATES...NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT
LAKES...A SUBTLE NORTHWARD SHIFT MORE AKIN TO THE 12Z YESTERDAY AND
00Z EURO TRACKS. BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT OUT AHEAD AND SPEED UP
THE INTRO/PASSAGE/DEPARTURE OF PCPN FOR OUR AREA. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO INTRODUCTORY POPS SAT NIGHT...PEAK POPS SUNDAY...WITH
ENDING/DEPARTURE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH THE MAX
SURFACE INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED ALONG THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS IS BASED ON A RIBBON OF 50F TD MAKING ITS WAY INTO
OUR AREA...AND THIS AXIS COULD EXTEND FURTHER NORTHWARD IF TDS DO IN
FACT CLIMB HIGHER. STILL...WITH THE COLD FRONT INCOMING...AND
POWERFUL WIND FIELDS ALOFT...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY
STORMS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP/BECOME SVR. BRN MAG TO 100KTS MIGRATES
ACROSS THE FA WITH THE SYSTEM/WHILE WEAK BULLSEYES OF 0-2KM VORT GEN
AND LAYER TOR PARAMETERS SUGGEST ISOLD TORS ARE POSSIBLE TOO. WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THIS POSSIBILITY VIA THE HWO.

WITH POWERFUL WINDS PROPELLING THE SYSTEM THRU...WE SHOULD SEE QUICK
BURST QPF OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ON AVERAGE FOR THE BASINS. HOWEVER...WITH
GFS SOUNDINGS REVEALING 1-1.25" PW`S PUSHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD CREATE SOME
FLOOD ISSUES/OR AT LEAST CAUSE HEIGHTENED CONCERN/SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE UPON.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MODELS BACK OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE
STALLED/RETURNING BOUNDARY SCENARIO ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SO
WE`LL CONTINUE TO OMIT FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WE`LL GO AHEAD AND
KEEP THE CLEAN FROPA AND RETURN POPS IF/WHEN NEEDED...IF FUTURE RUNS
SUGGEST SO. ONE SUCH TIME IS TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WENT SLGT CHC PCN AS
2NDARY TROF/LOW ROTATES ACROSS AREA. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILE AT THAT
TIME/WE CARRY EITHER/OR -RA/-SN. MINIMAL QPF EVENT BUT ALL
CONSIDERED AND WITH COLLAB...CURSORY SLGT CHC WARRANTED FOR NOW.

THE WARM PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRO WILL COOL FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S/NR 60
EARLY...BACK TO THE MORE FEBRUARY LIKE 40S BY MID WEEK. LOWS WILL
RESPOND IN KIND...RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMS BY THEN AS WELL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EARLY ON WILL LOWER TO MVFR
WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS EVEN POSSIBLE BENEATH THE HEAVIEST RAIN. THE RAIN WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...TAPERING OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. A CLEARING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RJP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

644 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

548 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 11Z
TOMORROW. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REVEALS THAT PRECIPITATION ONSET
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL 9 OR 10Z AT SME...10 OR 11Z AT LOZ...AND
12Z AT JKL. A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND DRY UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES. MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL DROP TO AROUND
2K...PARTICULARLY AT THE RIDGETOP LOCATION AT JKL. THE RAIN WILL LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

945 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW WITH IT ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH THE
REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ON FRI WILL MOVE EAST... NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AIDING IN LLVL CONVERGENCE W/SOME SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE
CWA. LATEST RADAR AND SATL IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THEREFORE, W/THIS IN MIND, DECIDED
TO BRING THE POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL(80-90%) INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RUC SHOWED SOME FRONTOGENESIS AT 1000-700MBS ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER LARGER AREA ACROSS NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON W/THE ARCTIC FRONT. ADDED A
MENTION OF BRIEF HEAVY SNOW DUE THIS FORCING. ALSO USED THE
FORCING TO BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS A TAD ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
CORRIDOR OF THE CWA W/1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. WE COULD BE SEEING
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS W/GUSTS TO 35 MPH AFTER 18Z.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST OBS BLENDED IN W/THE
LATEST LAMP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL
TREK EASTWARD TODAY, REMAINING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
MEANWHILE, SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO FORM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST, RESULTING IN TROFINESS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES CAN ALREADY
BE SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADAR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS SNOW WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK
FORCING MEANS QPF WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT A HIGH FLUFF FACTOR WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EVEN SO. LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWNEAST MAINE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW TRIES TO FORM. HIGHS WILL FEEL MILD
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 20S IN MOST
SPOTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MUCH COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE PARENT LOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE WILL BE VIGOROUS LIFT JUST AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A NARROW BAND
OF SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. IN FACT, THIS MAY
BE WHEN MANY LOCATIONS PICK UP THE MAJORITY OF THEIR SNOW,
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN NORTHERN MAINE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY POST FRONT, USHERING DRY ARCTIC AIR INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET OVERNIGHT; NORTHERN AREAS TO 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO, SOUTHERN
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST 0 TO 10 BELOW. THIS COUPLED WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF ZERO.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HI PRES WILL PROVIDE A BITTERLY COLD DAY THU...WITH HI
TEMPS NOT LIKELY REACHING ABV ZERO OVR NW AND FAR NERN PTNS OF
THE REGION. UNDER MCLR SKIES IN THE EVE...CONDITIONS START OFF
IDEAL FOR ARCTIC SFC BASE INVSN CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HI PRES
RIDGE CRESTS THE FA THU EVE...BUT HI AND MID CLDNSS WILL SPREAD
WSW TO ENE OVR THE FA BY LATE THU NGT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID
ATLC/ GREAT LKS STORM SYS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ERLY OVRNGT
LOW TEMPS...SPCLY WRN AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
OF ERLY LOWS IN THE FAR N AND E WHERE CLDNSS WILL REACH LAST. WILL
NOT GO FOR LOW TEMPS MUCH BLO MOS GUIDANCE ATTM...BUT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO REFINE THIS PTN OF THE FCST OVR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

OTHERWISE...LGT SNFL FROM THE WEAKENING LOWER GREAT LAKES LOW
WILL INITIALLY SPREAD INTO MSLY WRN AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FRI.
MORE SIG SNFL WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION
FRI NGT AS THE SECONDARY LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES ENE JUST OF THE GULF OF ME. GIVEN MODEL
SPREAD REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SECONDARY
LOW...CANNOT SAY FOR SURE WHETHER WNTR HDLNS ARE GUARANTEED EVEN
OVR DOWNEAST AREAS LATE FRI INTO SAT MORN...BUT THEY ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...AND FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL SN POPS
WITH THE SIG QPF POTENTIAL. FURTHER N...POPS DROP OFF TO LIKELY
OVR N AND E CNTRL AND TO CHC TO FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURG THIS
TM PD WITH DECREASING QPF POTENTIAL. IN FACT BASED ON THE 00Z GFS
ENS MEAN AND DTMNSTC ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ACCUMULATING SNFL WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT REACH THE NRN ST JOHN
VLY...BUT IT`S TO ERLY TO TRY TO FCST A SHARP CUT-OFF OF SNFL OVR
FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA ATTM.

STEADY SNFL SHOULD WIND DOWN AND END AS SN SHWRS FIRST FROM
NW AREAS SAT MORN AND THEN SE AREAS SAT AFTN UNDER BRISK
CONDITIONS...WITH ENOUGH LLVL DRY AIR BEING DRAWN INTO THE WRN
SIDE OF THE LOW TO BRING CLRG CONDITIONS TO THE NW PTN OF THE FA
SAT AFTN.

TEMPS WILL RECOVER SOME FRI...AND LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH FRI NGT
WITH CLD CVR AND POTENTIAL SNFL...WITH THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
LOW SAT NOT AS DEEPLY ARCTIC IN RESIDENCE AS THE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT NGT AND SUN WILL BE FAIR WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND EVEN A
WARMING TREND FOR SUN. WITH THE ARCTIC AIR IN RETREAT SUN NGT
INTO MON...THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LKS IS FCSTD TO
TRACK MUCH FURTHER N MON...TO EITHER OVR OR JUST N OF THE FA LATE
MON NGT INTO TUE. FOR NOW...WE GO WITH CHC SN POPS OVR THE N HLF
OF THE FA MON INTO MON NGT AND CHC SN CHG TO A CHC MIX OVR THE S
HLF AND EVEN RN ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SN SHWRS EVEN OVR SRN PTNS OF THE
FA LATE MON NGT INTO TUE MORN AS THE LOW MOVES ENE OF THE FA AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. FOR TMG PURPOSES...00Z GFS
AND GMOS POPS WERE BLENDED WITH 00Z ECMWF MODEL POPS.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REMAINING 1-3 SM. A FRONT
WILL PASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO WEST NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AS WELL, WITH PEAKS AROUND 25 KT. SNOW WILL END AT ALL
LOCATIONS AFTER 00Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD THU THRU THU NGT...WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR IN SN FOR DOWNEAST SITES FRI INTO SAT MORN...AND
MVFR FOR NRN TAF SITES WITH KHUL WITHER MVFR OR IFR DURG THIS TM.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR ALL SITES BY SAT NGT AND CONT
THRU SUN.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TURN TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST AND PICK UP TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. HAVE
THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BUT SLID THE
START TIME UP A FEW HOURS TO 4 PM. THE ADVISORY THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE THU AFTN. NO HDLNS NEEDED UNTIL FRI
UNTIL WINDS INCREASE TO AT LEAST GALE POTENTIAL BY FRI NGT CONTG
INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE OPEN
ATLC STORM...WE CANNOT RULE STORM FORCE WINDS... BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ATTM...WE WILL LIMIT MAX GUSTS TO 45 KT LATE FRI NGT
AND SAT MORN. NW WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH
AN INTERIM SCA NEEDED DURG THIS TM.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ011-
015>017-031-032.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

634 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE A BREAK FROM
SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A FRONT WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE TO ADD SEVERAL HOURS OF FLURRIES THIS MORNING WEST OF
THE RIDGES. FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AXIS OF A BROAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT 850MB...A
ZONAL FLOW IS VEERING TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH WEAK CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE
RIDGES AND A SATURATED 1000-750MB LAYER...UPSLOPING SNOW
ENHANCEMENT IS CONTINUING ACROSS THE RIDGES. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD HIGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE HIGH IS SLIDING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND NVA
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE HAVE ALLOWED FOR SNOW TO COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TODAY WILL BACK TO MORE ZONAL
TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. CHANCE POPS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE EARLY IN UPSLOPING
ACROSS THE RIDGES. DESPITE A COLD WEST-NWRLY 850MB FLOW OFF OF
ERIE...LAKE EFFECT ZONES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH AN
INVERSION LOWERING TO AROUND 2KFT AFTER A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING IN CONVERGENCE ALONG A WIND SHIFT. HIRES MODELS
SUPPORT CHC POPS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE RIDGES
OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ALLEGHENY FRONT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN MORE SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET
GUIDANCE AS WEAK WAA ADVECTION ENSUES AFTER 18Z. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PITTSBURGH METRO. FOR LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO TO THE
LOWER TEENS IN VENANGO/CLARION/JEFFERSON COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AS WAA ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 0-4C)
CONTINUES. WITH A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...850MB
FLOW WILL DRY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW ON THURSDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z
FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK SHOT OF CAA IN ITS WAKE. WITH WAA ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW...THE LOW-LEVEL MELTING LAYER AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOCATIONS NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF CRITICAL THICKNESS
THRESHOLDS AND THUS A WINTRY MIX IS FORECAST THERE. SCHC OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR I-80 CORRIDOR AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ALLEGHENY FRONT AS SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING IN
THESE LOCATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON FRIDAY WITH CAA IN A
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
LOW ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR STEADY IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN WESTERN PA TO THE LOWER 40S IN EASTERN OHIO...SW
PA...AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME LEFT OVER SNOW FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...IT APPEARS THAT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EAST COAST WEATHER. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONTS IMPACTING ALMOST
THE ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP
POPS TO LIKELY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF
ALONG WITH NAEFS ENSEMBLE. MOST OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS
RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX IN. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS WITH A SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON
SATURDAY...RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN DROP BACK
TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWERING OVERCAST STRATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING. SOME SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN PORTS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA...STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL PORTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS
IN SNOW WITH RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
RETURN TO VFR FOR THE WEEKEND.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

441 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO ADD THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ALLEGHENY
FRONT OF MD/WV/PA.

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWERING OVERCAST STRATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING. SOME SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN PORTS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA...STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL PORTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

430 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AXIS OF A BROAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT 850MB...A
ZONAL FLOW IS VEERING TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH WEAK CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE
RIDGES AND A SATURATED 1000-750MB LAYER...UPSLOPING SNOW
ENHANCEMENT IS CONTINUING ACROSS THE RIDGES. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD HIGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE HIGH IS SLIDING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND NVA
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE HAVE ALLOWED FOR SNOW TO COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWERING OVERCAST STRATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING. SOME SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN PORTS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA...STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL PORTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...RSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

140 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 06Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS
IN TEMPS.

THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AXIS OF A BROAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. AT 850MB...A
ZONAL FLOW IS VEERING TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH WEAK CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE
RIDGES AND A SATURATED 1000-750MB LAYER...UPSLOPING SNOW
ENHANCEMENT IS CONTINUING ACROSS THE RIDGES. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD HIGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE HIGH IS SLIDING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND NVA
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE HAVE ALLOWED FOR SNOW TO COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TODAY WILL BACK TO MORE ZONAL
TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. CHANCE POPS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE EARLY IN UPSLOPING
ACROSS THE RIDGES. DESPITE A COLD WEST-NWRLY 850MB FLOW OFF OF
ERIE...LAKE EFFECT ZONES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH AN
INVERSION LOWERING TO AROUND 2KFT AFTER A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WIND SHIFT. HIRES MODELS SUPPORT CHC POPS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE RIDGES OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND ALLEGHENY FRONT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST WILL
BE COMPLICATED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH TWO SYSTEMS
COMBINING. OPEN WAVE ACROSS INDIANA THURSDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH. A
COASTAL LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE PA LOW WILL THEN
DISSIPATE WITH THE COASTAL LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES/PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL COME IN...BUT FELT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN COULD BE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA TO MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE COLDEST HOURS
OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME LEFT OVER SNOW FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
DEPARTS...IT APPEARS THAT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EAST COAST WEATHER. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE INTO
MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONTS IMPACTING ALMOST THE
ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO
LIKELY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH
NAEFS ENSEMBLE. MOST OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX IN. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR POPS WITH A SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY...RISE ABOVE
NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN DROP BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT IS PUSHING
RAPIDLY EAST AND WILL BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES BY 07Z.
LOWERING OVERCAST STRATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING. SOME SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN PORTS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA...STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL PORTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...RSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

610 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

AREA OF SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...FIRST AT
KMBS AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINING TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...SLEET...FRRA MIX MAY PRECEDE THE SNOW AT KYIP/KDTW/KDET
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
IFR/LIFR RATHER QUICKLY BETWEEN 02Z-06Z AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA. SNOW WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY 08Z-10Z OR SO. CIGS WILL
THEN SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR DTW...A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET/FZRA WILL BEGIN NEAR
04Z AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY
06Z WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY 09Z-10Z BEFORE
THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS 5000 FEET OR LOWER AFTER 03Z THIS
EVENING.

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE IN SNOW
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION STARTING OFF AS FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET AROUND 04Z BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND 06Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 330 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY

COMPACT WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
CLIPPING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAS INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MANIFESTING IN A BROAD
REGION OF RAIN ACROSS ILLINOIS SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS WITH SNOW
SPREADING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND FAR WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
MID-LEVEL FORCING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY /AS
EVIDENCED BY LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WAITING FOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO ARRIVE. EXPECTING SATURATION TO OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE
OF FORCING BY SUNDOWN...AFTER WHICH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW.

MEANWHILE...THE WELL ESTABLISHED MOISTURE PLUME IS WAITING ON THE
UPPER-LEVEL PV ANOMALY OVER MINNESOTA TO LINK UP AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK TOWARD THE EAST THIS EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY...THE ONSET OF
MEANINGFUL SNOW SOUTH OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY WILL BE DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FINALLY ARRIVES. IN
FACT...THE 07.18 RAP SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE LAGGING
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS. FURTHERMORE...12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE IS TOO BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST...OWING TO THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT THUS FAR.

THE DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH
OF THE MID-LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING...WHERE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM WILL
BE A QUICK BUT STRONG SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHARPENING MID-LEVEL ANOMALY. STILL EXPECT A GOOD BURST OF
PRECIPITATION /SNOW RATES IN THE INCH PER HOUR NEIGHBORHOOD/ GIVEN
THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE DEEPENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN
LAKES REGION. TO ADD FUEL TO THE RATES...THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION CLOSER TO THE 850MB LOW
TRACK...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS WILL DESTABILIZE THE PROFILE.

STILL PLENTY OF EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
ACROSS THE METRO DETROIT REGION SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE NEAR THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...BEFORE THE COLUMN SUCCUMBS TO COOLING VIA STRONG
ASCENT ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE PV ANOMALY.

ON FRIDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION LINGERS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CLOSER TO LAKE
HURON...THE INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SNOW
TOTALS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE 20S MOST OF THE DAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODEST COLD ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CALMER
WEATHER TO THE AREA. WARMER AND MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL START TO
PUSH IN BY FRIDAY EVENING...EFFECTIVELY LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND STRIPPING AWAY ICE NUCLEI...ENDING POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO AFFECT THE THUMB. DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY...WITH
FORECAST MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS START TO SHOW A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ARRIVING BETWEEN
925-850MB SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER SNOWPACK AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYERS REMAINS DECOUPLED. ONCE AGAIN...CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES WITH MINS ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

ENERGY NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALLS LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SPIN UP A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LATEST CONSENSUS
FROM MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MONDAY. 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET PRECEDING THE SYSTEM WILL FEED
WARMTH AND MOISTURE (PW AROUND 0.8 INCHES) UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WHEN STRONGER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
STRONGER FORCING SHOULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PER LATEST TRENDS IN THE EURO AND GFS...AND EXPECT
MOSTLY RAIN TO FALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. STRONG DRY
SLOT PRECEDING THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO DRIER AIR ALOFT STRIPPING
AWAY ICE NUCLEI BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW AND PATTERN OF VERY WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS THEN LOOKS
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST EURO AND GFS
HINT AT A STRONGER SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE ON
THURSDAY...BUT MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
POOR AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. EARLIER SYSTEM
THE GFS HAD ADVERTISED CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MICHIGAN
MID-WEEK NOW LOOKS TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DIVES FURTHER INTO THE U.S. FROM CANADA.

MARINE...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY A STRONGER NOREASTER
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT
NECESSITATING BRISK WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SAGINAW BAY WHERE A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
AS WINDS FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY WITH THE FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH.
SOME FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW TONIGHT...BUT
INTENSITY AND DURATION SHOULD STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. AFTER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TARGET THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ053...UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ049-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ063...UNTIL NOON
FRIDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ068-MIZ069-
MIZ070...UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL NOON
FRIDAY.

LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...SAGINAW BAY...FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR
BEACH...UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...MANN
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1149 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES TO BC RESULTING IN WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH NRN IL WHILE A WEAKE SHRTWV TO THE NORTH THAT BROUGH THE
LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER MI HAD MOVED INTO NRN LOWER MI. AT THE
SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING THROUGH UPPER MI AS A TROUGH MOVES
S THROUGH THE AREA AND A LOW MOVES EAST FROM NEAR THE SAULT. A BAND
OF SNOW SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR THE TROUGH HAS
SAGGED THROUGH THE NORTH PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NW FLOW WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS
TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER IN
THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT HIGHER SNOW/WATER RATIOS AOA 25/1.
HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AOB 4K FT WILL
ALSO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED...GREATEST OVER THE EAST. HIGHER RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT DIMINISHING WINDS LATE TONIGHT MAY ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
A MESO-LOW OVER SE LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WHER OR IF
THIS WOULD MOVE ASHORE AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEPARTING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

THE FCST KEEPS TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE INLAND WEST AS
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS MID
CLOUDS PASS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF WELL
BELOW ZERO.

UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING 250-300 MB JET STREAK
FROM THE NRN LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FGEN TO
THE SOUTH INTO NW WI BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILLS SUPPORT AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING TOWARD UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEST BY 00Z/THU.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BROAD WAA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIAL SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG THE BROAD H850-600
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND RIGHT REAR OF THE UPPER JET MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST/SHARPEST LOW LEVEL WAA GRADIENT DOES LOOK
TO BE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 12Z RUNS...MORE IN WISCONSIN...SO
THINKING THAT A FARTHER SOUTH TREND TO THE QPF/SNOW IS WARRANTED.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN TRYING
TO FOCUS/STALL NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH COULD TRY TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME.

WITH THE INITIAL WAA SNOW SLIDING EAST ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND
FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH HAS SOME INFLUENCE ON THE
OVERALL FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND FARTHER NORTH. WILL TREND AWAY FROM THE NAM AND TOWARDS
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THE LOW BEGINS TO WRAP UP NEAR THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND FOCUSES THE BETTER FORCING AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. BUT...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND BROAD FORCING TO LEAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...SHOULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS H850 TEMPS ARE AROUND -12C AND WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS. OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN...WINDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL ALSO ASSIST IN SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM MENOMINEE THROUGH MANISTIQUE. WITH THE RECENT
SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST...THE WIND FIELD HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING GREATLY
WHICH PRODUCES LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOCATIONS.

WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH SHIFT...THINKING MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
1-4 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
DUE TO IT/S CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BEST LOWER LEVEL WAA AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...COULD SEE MENOMINEE COUNTY APPROACHING THE 3 INCHES IN
24HRS ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO...BUT WILL FOCUS THE WORDING MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

ONE FINAL THING TO NOTE FOR THURSDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ATTEMPT TO CUT OUT SOME OF THE ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
CLOUDS. IF THIS OCCURS...IT COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW FOR OCCURRING AT THIS
POINT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO QUIET WEATHER OVER THE CWA.
NEXT WAVE BRUSHES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS AS THAT PASSES
THROUGH.

UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST GREATLY INCREASES AFTER SATURDAY...AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY EXITING THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z ECMWF AND
12Z GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND PULL A 990S MB LOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH OF THOSE RUNS
VARY GREATLY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE VARIABILITY OVER THE
LAST DAY. WITH 12Z GEM/UKMET ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS A LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WILL TREND POPS UP DURING THAT TIME
FRAME TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. IF THE CURRENT
GFS/ECMWF FORECAST IS CORRECT...SOME LOCATIONS IN UPPER MICHIGAN
COULD SEE A HEAVY SNOWFALL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS AT KIWD/KSAW DUE TO
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN. AT KCMX...DRY AIR MASS HAS EFFECTIVELY PUT AN
END TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...AND EVEN STRATOCU HAS CLEARED OUT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF OVERWATER INSTABILITY AND NOCTURNAL COOLING
ENHANCING CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE...MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME
FLURRIES MAY YET RETURN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN. NEXT DISTURBANCE TRACKING TOWARD THE WRN
LAKES MAY SPREAD OF SHIELD OF -SN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3
TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM MID AFTN INTO THE EVENING HRS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013

NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AREAS OF
FREEZING SPRAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. ENE WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE ALSO
EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
25 KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

527 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 232 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSES
SHOW THE FEATURE OF INTEREST MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AT THE
CURRENT TIME. THE OTHER FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE BIG PICTURE
ARE THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA... WHICH IS
HELPING TO GENERATE A SWATH OF PCPN OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST... AND
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THESE TWO
UPPER WAVES WILL PHASE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CREATE A
BLOCKBUSTER OF A WINTER STORM FOR FOLKS IN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT HOW THE
WESTERN SHORTWAVE BEHAVES AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA
OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE
EASTERN STORM BOTTLES UP THE FLOW WILL HELP DICTATE THE TRACK AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AHEAD OF OUR SYSTEM... WHICH IS
LIKELY PART OF WHY WE/RE STILL SEEING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHEST WEST... ALONG WITH THE SREF...
WHILE THE ECMWF... GEM... AND FIM ARE FARTHER EAST. AT THIS
POINT... THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF EVOLUTION... SO WILL STICK SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THAT WHILE
ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE WARMING IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
IN ACCORDANCE WITH WHAT THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST TO SOME EXTENT.
THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MIXED PCPN EVENT FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE AREA... WITH THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA
HAVING THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF REMAINING ALL SNOW. WITH THAT IN
MIND... WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH THAT INCLUDES THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED SOUTH/EAST IN AREA DEPENDING UPON HOW EXPECTATIONS
EVOLVE... BUT FOR NOW DECIDED TO FOCUS ON WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST THAT 6-8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR... ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS.

IN THE SHORTER TERM... LINGERING VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MIX WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES AS WE
SEE A BIT OF SEEDING FROM DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA... AND ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS WE GET ONTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE SPREAD OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING
FOR FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS. RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP BY SATURDAY
MORNING... THEN REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING
FOR GOOD MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EXIT THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW... AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
ACROSS THE CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES
AND DIFFLUENCE INCREASES MARKEDLY IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
APPROACHING JET. THESE THINGS SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCEMENT
OF PCPN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PCPN-TYPE CONTINUES TO
BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE THAT WILL MITIGATE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL... AND
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT WARM AIR
MOVE IN ALOFT TO CHANGE THINGS TO SLEET AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA... BEFORE
GOING OVER TO MAINLY RAIN FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...
HEIGHTS CRASH QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA... WHICH ALONG WITH DYNAMIC COOLING FROM SUSTAINED
UPWARD MOTION COULD HELP TO CHANGE THINGS BACK TO SNOW FAIRLY
QUICKLY DEPENDING UPON WHETHER THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WHICH MOVES
IN IS AS ROBUST AS THE GFS SUGGESTS OR CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND
FIM. FOR NOW... KEPT THINGS ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST... AND ALLOWED FOR MIXED PCPN UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO. THAT BEING
SAID... WITH PCPN TOTALS OF OVER SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... AND PERHAPS SOME CLOSE TO AN INCH... ANY
PERIOD OF SNOW COULD PUT DOWN DECENT ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT
LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN ALL SNOW TO WIND UP BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FOR THE
MOST PART... ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR DEPENDING
ON RATIOS... WHILE AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AS ONE MOVES INTO
AREAS WHERE A GREATER PORTION OF THE PCPN IS OF MIXED-TYPE AND/OR
RAIN. AT THIS POINT... THE BEST GUESS FOR THE TWIN CITIES WOULD BE
FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS OF NEAR 6 INCHES... WITH THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
SUBURBS SEEING THE GREATEST... BUT THAT COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON HOW THE STORM TRACK PANS OUT AND THE CHARACTER OF
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY... THE SITUATION WILL
REQUIRE CONTINUED MONITORING... WITH UPDATES AND CHANGES LIKELY AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY... WITH THINGS
DRYING OUT FOR GOOD ONCE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. BENIGN WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER COULD IMPACT
THE AREA BY THURSDAY... ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DEFINITE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS... ECMWF... AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES WITH RESPECT TO THAT... SO KEPT THINGS DRY
AFTER MONDAY FOR NOW.

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
PRIMARY TAF CHALLENGE THIS ISSUANCE IS WHETHER THE IMPROVING CIG
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS HELPED CIGS TO IMPROVE ABOVE
2KFT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEDGE OF CLEARING NOTED FROM
NORTHERN MN TOWARD KAXN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD
THE SCENARIO OF IMPROVING CIGS THIS EVENING...SO HAVE RECONFIGURED
THE TAFS TOWARD THAT THINKING. WILL THEN HAVE A CONCERN FOR FOG/BR
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL IS THE
HIGHEST TOWARD KAXN...WHERE A LONGER CLEAR PERIOD AND LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHEAST IN DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY. SPEEDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN WHERE AN
INCREASE TO AROUND 14 KTS WILL OCCUR AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

KMSP...
CIGS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FT TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERING EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. MORE CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS MEANS
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...BUT VSBY SHOULD NOT DIP BELOW 5SM AT THE SITE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. IFR DEVELOPING LATE WITH PRECIP MIX. WINDS SSE 10G15KTS.
SUN...IFR WITH RA/SN. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE. ESE AT 15G20KTS.
MON...IFR WITH SN IN MORNING...MVFR AFTERNOON. WINDS WNW 20G30KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR BENTON-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-
LAC QUI PARLE-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-SHERBURNE-
STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WI...NONE.
&&

TRH/LS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

437 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TWO MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FZRA/FZDZ TONIGHT...THEN WHAT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG ISSUE WAS WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANY SORT
OF A WINTER WX OR FRZA ADVY. THIS AFTERNOON...NICE FGEN BAND ROOTED
IN THE H85 TO H7 LAYER HAS ALREADY ALL BUT CLEARED OUR WRN WI
COUNTIES AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT BY 00Z. THIS BAND HAS BROUGHT A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW...WITH 1-2 INCHES COMMON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ERN MN INTO WRN WI. BACK WEST AND SOUTHWEST YOU SEE THE PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT. IT IS AN INVERTED THROUGH THAT SITS FROM A DIFFUSE
SFC LOW OVER ERN CO...NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEB TO THE ABERDEEN
AREA...THEN BACK NW TOWARD BISMARK AND NODAK WHERE IT MERGES WITH
A COLD FRONT. JUST SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...A FAIRLY STRONG WARM
FRONT HAS COME UP INTO SRN MN....WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TEENS AND 20S STILL IN PLACE TO THE NORTH. FOR
TONIGHT...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH
WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING UP FROM NEAR KC TO LA
CROSSE BY 12Z.

QUESTION MARKS ARE A PLENTY FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT...WHICH
IS THE BIGGEST REASON NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE...THERE IS JUST NOT IN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WHICH OF THE
SCENARIOS TO FOLLOW WILL PLAY OUT THIS EVENING TO BE ABLE TO PLACE
ANY AREA WITHIN ADVY.

FIRST...WHAT SHOULD BE NOTED AS THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SHOW WE ARE DONE WITH GENERATING ICE CRYSTALS FOR THE
NIGHT...LEAVING US WITH LIQUID AS THE P-TYPE FROM HERE ON OUT FOR
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DZ
GENERATION...WITH SOUNDINGS BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED FROM THE
SFC UP THROUGH AROUND 2K FT SW AND 4K FT NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...TO
GET DZ...YOU LIKE TO SEE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH A
DECENT PUSH OF WAA AND A LITTLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO HELP THINGS
ALONG. THE PROBLEM WITH TONIGHT THROUGH...IS AS THIS INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES INTO MN...THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TURN MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST...NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO DZ PRODUCTION. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN 925-850 MB LAYER IS DIRECTED MORE FROM
CENTRAL IA INTO FAR SE MN AND CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...LARGELY SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE MPX AREA. FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS IS THE FACT
THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THAT AREA LARGELY SNOW-FREE...IS
QUESTIONABLE IF TEMPS DOWN THERE EVEN FALL BELOW FREEZING THIS
EVENING...HENCE WANTING TO AVOID ANY FZRA ADVYS IN SC MN.

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? BESIDE THE FACT THAT IT IS A TRICKY
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...IT MEANS THE SCENARIO I AM CURRENTLY MOST
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRING IS A NIGHT FULL OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP/DZ...SO OPTED FOR NO
HEADLINES...THOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

INTERESTINGLY...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SNOW TO CREEP BACK IN ACROSS ERN AREAS AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS. THE CULPRIT FOR THIS IS A RATHER POTENT SHORT
WAVE MODELS SHOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN MN DURING THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE
TO LEAD TO ONE LAST BURST OF SNOW ACROSS FAR ERN AREAS...WITH
ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER RIDGING...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A DRY PERIOD. SFC HIGH COULD
LEAD TO A CHILLY START TO THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SAID HIGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG
SRLY FLOW AND WAA SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IT IS OBVIOUS FROM PHONE CALLS
RECEIVED IN THE OFFICE TODAY THAT THE RABBIT HAS LONG SINCE LEFT
THE HAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z MODELS WITH
THEIR HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM...WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES NOTED. OF COURSE WITH THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR THIS
SYSTEM BRINGS UP...THESE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES HAVE HUGE
IMPLICATIONS ON WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS SEEN. AFTER PUTTING
TOGETHER THIS PACKAGE OF GRIDS...IT BECAME OBVIOUS THAT THIS
CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS MORE THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAS THE
SNOW/MIX LINE THE FARTHEST NW. BASED ON 925 MB TEMPS AND WHERE THE
0C ISOTHERM IS TAKEN. THE 12Z GFS WOULD HAVE THE SNOW LINE
SOMEWHERE NEAR A REDWOOD FALLS/ST. CLOUD/CAMBRIDGE LINE. THE ECMWF
IS MORE OF A ST. JAME/RED WING/EAU CLAIRE LINE...WHILE THE GEM/FIM
WOULD BE MORE OF AN ALBERT LEA/ROCHESTER/EAU CLAIRE LINE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH...THAT DUE TO THE LATENESS OF THIS AFD
COMING OUT...AM ABLE TO SEE THAT THE 18Z VERSION OF THE GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE FIM. ANOTHER FACTOR ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE PROGRESSION OF
RATHER PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AT H7. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE IMPACTS ON
THE AMOUNT OF QPF SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
AREA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...FULLY EXPECT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
IN THE DAYS TO COME WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH RIGHT NOW...THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS /GREATER THAN 10 INCHES/
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STILL EXISTS ALONG AND WEST OF ABOUT A
REDWOOD FALL...TO ST. CLOUD...TO MILLE LACS LAKE LINE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LOOKS COOLER AND DRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SNOW HAS CLEARED THE MN TAF SITES AND WILL CLEAR KRNH AND KEAU BY
00Z. IN FACT VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY BY 20Z AT THOSE
TWO SITES. ELSEWHERE CEILING AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVED
DRAMATICALLY ONCE THE SNOW ENDED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON CAN EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEFORE DEGRADING THIS
EVENING. IN FACT EXPECT MVFR TO IFR AT ALL LOCATIONS SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. LIFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY 03Z AS WELL AS PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
LIMITED AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS AS INDICATED BY TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS AND ALSO A LACK OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...TO BE EXPECTED
WITH A NORTHERLY WIND. BY 12Z THURSDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8KTS
FROM THE NNE. ANY LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GONE AT THAT TIME AND
COULD SEE SELECT SITES BECOME MVFR...NOT GOOD CONFIDENCE THOUGH.
ANY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE DONE AS WELL. A FEW FLURRIES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND BUFKIT RAP/NAM INDICATES A RETURN
TO SNOW AFTER SUNRISE. HRRR WOULD LIKE TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO BLO 3SM TONIGHT AND LOWER THAN 1SM IN SW MN BUT BELIEVE THAT
TO BE OVERDONE.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING
COMMUTE. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BEGINS AFTER 00Z. THE
TIMING IN THE CURRENT TAF IS OUR BEST GUESS FOR THE START OF
DRIZZLE...BUT IT MAY IN FACT COME A BIT EARLIER THAN WHAT`S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT IT TO BE PATCHY AND HOPE THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ADHERE TO THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SN /FLURRIES/ POSSIBLE. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH RA AND SN POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MPG/DRL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1258 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WARM
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. LARGE AREA OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION STRETCHING FROM
WESTERN MINNESOTA WESTWARD BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PLENTY OF RETURNS IN THE DAKOTAS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LITTLE GROUND TRUTH UP TO THIS
POINT. WARM ADVECTION SUGGESTS WE HAVE CROSS ISOTHERM FLOW...BUT
IT SAYS NOTHING ABOUT THE TRANSFER OF MOISTURE OR FRONTOGENETICAL
PROCESSES...BOTH OF WHICH ARE SOMEWHAT LACKING SO FAR THIS
MORNING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE PWAT OFF THE 06.00Z KABR AND KLBF
SOUNDINGS WERE 0.27" AND 0.34" RESPECTIVELY AND KLBF IS MUCH
WARMER. THEREFORE...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
GET GOING AND SHOULD BECOME BETTER ENHANCED AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
HEADS EAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THE LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OFF THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
FROM THE NAM AND GFS SEEM TO HIGHLIGHT WHATS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP
ON RADAR...WHICH REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. SO...TRIED TO TREND
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LIKELY POPS CLOSER TO WHERE
SATURATION OCCURS ON 285K. THIS ALSO FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS
QPF A LITTLE BETTER. AT ANY RATE...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK OUT IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLIDE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. WARMER TEMPS WILL KEEP RATIOS HIGHER
/ACTUALLY CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY/ FROM THE CLIPPERS WE`VE SEEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS. THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE A SOLID COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF...AND THE INVERTED TROUGH STILL
KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...FREEZING DRIZZLE SEEMS
LIKELY THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS A FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE SREF 05.21 PROBABILITIES
SHOW FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS ON TRACK FOR LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND AFFECT THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIAGNOSED FROM
A POTENTIAL VORTICITY PERSPECTIVE TO TRY TO GAIN SOME INSIGHT ON HOW
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE. AN EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS VIA
THE GFS90 06.00 CROSS SECTION SHOWING ISENTROPES...POTENTIAL
VORTICITY...AND WINDSPEED ORIENTED ALONG THE 130W MERIDIAN FROM 60N
TO 20S IDENTIFIED 2 DISTINCT JETS AS SEEN BY THE TROPOPAUSE
UNDULATIONS AT ROUGHLY 30N AND 55.. THE NORTHERN JET WAS ORIENTED
ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THIS JET WAS LOCATED ATOP THE MOST
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERNMOST
JET WAS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT LOCATED WITHIN THE
H500 TO H150 LAYER. AS TIME PROGRESSES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT CRAWLS DOWN THE WEST COAST.
UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES THIS IS WHERE OLD PACIFIC STORMS GO TO
DIE AS THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE AT MID LEVELS GRADUALLY ERODES THE
PV...ALONG WITH THE DECREASED CORIOLIS FORCE AT LOWER LATITUDES.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE WITH THIS STORM. BY TRANSLATING
THE CROSS SECTION EASTWARD TO THE 120W MERIDIAN...ONE IS ABLE TO
CAPTURE THE WEAKENING PV ANOMALY AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER
CALIFORNIA. IT IS HERE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MERGES WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET...AS SEEN BY THE COUPLED JET IN THE CROSS SECTION.
ONCE THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONIC SHEAR ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE OCCLUDED STORM CAUSING IT TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND
HEADS TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF 06.00 ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW...AND SHOW THE UPPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS HAS A
MORE ROBUST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE DEEPENS THE LOW MORE
QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...SO HAVE
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WORDING IN THE GRIDS. THIS STORM WILL TAP
INTO THE GULF MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL EXCEED 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FROM NORMAL AS THEY APPROACH NEARLY 3/4 OF AN INCH. LONG STORY
SHORT...THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
STORM ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS OF NOW EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
FEW DAYS PRECEDING THIS STORM...AND THEN COOL OFF TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JRB/DRL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

320 PM MST WED FEB 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AT LEAST
UNTIL SOME UPSLOPE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SHOWS UP IN THE FOOTHILLS BY
FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE 18 UTC HRRR TAKES THE SHALLOW CONVECTION OBSERVED IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MT AS OF MID AFTERNOON EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT
DURING THE EVENING. WE WILL ADVERTISE SOME LOW POPS THROUGH 03 UTC
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN RESPECT TO THIS...THOUGH CONVECTION COULD
VERY WELL DIMINISH CLOSER TO 00 UTC AS SURFACE COOLING TAKES HOLD.
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

THU...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AT 500 HPA WILL CROSS THE AREA DOWNSTREAM
OF VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT DIVES INTO THE
WEST COAST DURING THE DAY. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS ALOFT.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF
A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. WE THEREFORE DECIDED
TO LEAN ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS...ASSUMING THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL NOT UNDERESTIMATE HIGHS TOO MUCH IN THIS CASE. THERE
IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR DRAINAGE WINDS OUT OF THE BIG HORN BASIN INTO
THE BILLINGS AREA...BUT A SIMILAR SCENARIO ON TUE DID NOT HOLD THE
HIGHS BACK TOO MUCH...SO IT MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR ON THU EITHER.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL HAVE FINISHED A SPLIT
AND THE DYNAMIC...SOUTHERN-STREAM PORTION OF THE WAVE IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SOME MODEST FORCING DOES SHOW UP
ON 500-300 HPA Q-VECTOR SIMULATIONS FROM THE 12 UTC GFS. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME UPSLOPE...AND ONCE THE OROGRAPHIC FORCING DEEPENS
TO ABOUT 700 HPA BY FRI NIGHT...SOME SNOW WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP IN
THE FOOTHILLS. THE 12 UTC NAM SOLUTION IS A WET OUTLIER BECAUSE IT
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE DYNAMIC WAVE...SO IT WAS ESSENTIALLY SET
ASIDE FOR NOW. EVEN SO...THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHERIDAN.
WE THUS INCREASED POPS INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE FRI NIGHT FOR THE
FOOTHILLS. NOTE THAT THE 12 UTC CIPS ANALOGS SUGGEST MEAN SNOWFALL
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WHICH ALSO CONFIRMS SOME SNOW POTENTIAL TIED TO
THIS ADMITTEDLY SUBTLE EVENT. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CUTOFF LOW PUSHING
THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SUN AS WELL. UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
THE UPPER LOW TO THE S WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS TO BIG HORN AND
SHERIDAN COUNTIES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THESE
PERIODS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON SAT WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUN...AND WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THESE FEATURES SUPPORTED THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. DID
LOWER TEMPERATURES ON SUN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE PULLING S OUT OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SE AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOWERED MINS DUE TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO -10 DEGREES C.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL NUDGE E OVER THE REGION ON MON HELPING TO DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT. THE RIDGING WILL
PERSIST INTO TUE. THE ECMWF WAS MUCH WARMER THAN GFS ON TUE...SO
MADE NO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED NW FLOW
OVER THE AREA ON WED...BUT THE ECMWF HAD A WETTER SOLUTION WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LEFT POPS ALONE FOR NOW WITH
NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. ARTHUR

.AVIATION...

GUSTY W TO NW SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. VFR WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH THU. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO SHOWERS. ARTHUR

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/046 026/042 022/038 024/033 017/034 025/043 025/043
20/B 01/B 11/B 23/J 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 025/046 024/039 019/035 021/028 013/032 020/041 026/041
10/N 02/W 22/J 32/J 21/B 11/N 11/B
HDN 022/046 022/040 020/037 022/031 014/032 022/042 022/042
20/B 00/B 12/J 23/J 21/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 022/043 021/040 019/033 021/030 014/029 021/039 022/039
20/B 00/B 10/B 23/J 21/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 021/045 023/042 021/034 020/030 015/029 020/039 021/039
10/U 00/B 11/B 13/J 21/B 11/U 11/B
BHK 020/040 019/040 016/031 017/027 011/024 016/034 019/034
10/U 00/B 10/B 23/J 20/B 01/B 11/B
SHR 017/043 022/039 018/034 016/028 011/029 018/039 018/039
20/U 00/B 53/J 33/J 21/B 11/B 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS HASTINGS NE

933 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...MADE SEVERAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA ARE ADVANCING BACK TO THE WEST IN A MOVE
NOT WELL FORECAST BY THE FORECAST MODELS. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOMENTUM FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THEIR SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT INTO AT LEAST
HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND. THE NORTHEAST WIND AT YORK ACTUALLY
INCREASED A BIT WHEN THE CLOUDS MOVED IN. SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE RUC ARE INDICATING A BAND OF DENSE FOG
RIGHT ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK. SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN THIS ZONE ARE ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 2 OR 3 DEGREES
AND SO IT SEEMS PRETTY FEASIBLE THAT FOG COULD EASILY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AND THE WIND BECOMES
VERY LIGHT TO CALM. AM NOT READY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POOR MODEL
HANDLING OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. A SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER
KGRI TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS THAT GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST.
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGRI AND ALL ALONG THIS RIDGE AXIS DUE
TO THE LIGHT WINDS THAT MAY EVEN BECOME CALM AT TIMES. HAVE ADDED
A TEMPO GROUP FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF VISIBILITIES END UP FALLING EVEN LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE TAF. A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES WELL EAST OF KGRI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

UPPER AIR PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SET UP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING TOWARD
THE MIDWEST..AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES. CONTINUING TO
SEE AT TIMES GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND SKIES HAVE BEEN
CLEAR...THOUGH THERE WAS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY EARLIER THIS MORNING
WITH THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO ERN NEB. SOME CLOUDS DID CLIP THE NERN EDGE OF THE CWA...BUT
DIDNT STICK ARND LONG. NO BIG SURPRISES WITH TEMPERATURES...WHICH
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS A DRY ONE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST...AND BY 12Z TOMORROW IS CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
DESERT SW.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT
LOOKING AT TONIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
AT TIMES LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE S/SE.
DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT WITH THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL ALONG/WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THAT RIDGE AXIS. NOT ALL MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREES...AND DPTS ARE
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...SO AM JUST KEEPING IT PATCHY.

DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE FORECAST...WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO START BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE ROCKIES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS
ITS WAY EAST. LOOKING TO SEE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOP...ESP AFFECTING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARND 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. THINKING THAT HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO LOWER/MID 50S WEST.

LONG TERM...STARTING 00Z SATURDAY. GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ON INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER EAST-CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
ON SATURDAY...WITH THIS AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE THEN
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. INCREASING MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. THE PRIMARY AXIS OF MID LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA HEADING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION BEGINS
INFILTRATING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA HEADING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW...WILL LIKELY PROMOTE AT LEAST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF
50-100J/KG WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND AS A
RESULT...MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE MUCH OF OUR
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND
RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
EXPECTED TO PRESENT A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. AN EVEN AVERAGE OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND
SREF-MEAN SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA COULD
STILL PICK UP ~0.10" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. OF THOSE FOUR MODELS THE EC PRESENTS THE MOST
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE 0.10-0.30" RANGE...WHILE THE
NAM SUGGESTS MOST ALL OF OUR CWA WILL BE SO INFLUENCED BY THE MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED. THE
SREF-MEAN AND OPERATIONAL GFS ARE CLOSER TO THE 0.05-0.15"
RANGE...THUS THE AFOREMENTIONED AVERAGE NEAR 0.10". FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST ALL OF OUR CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION PRESENTING A
COOLING LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND POSSIBLE SNOW PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
THEN PROVIDE NEARLY STEADY IF NOT FALLING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA DURING THE SNOWFALL SUNDAY...WILL GO AHEAD AND ASSUME
A 10:1 SNOW-WATER RATIO 18Z-00Z...WITH SOMETHING CLOSER TO 7:1
12Z-18Z AS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOST DUE TO THE
FACT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED AS THE RAIN MAKES ITS TRANSITION
TO SNOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF
0.5-1.0"...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO SILVER
CREEK...SEEMS LOGICAL...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A TRACE TO PERHAPS
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THIS OF COURSE IS A FAR
CRY FROM THE ~10" OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. GIVEN THIS...IT IS VERY
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM IS JUST NOW
MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE UPCOMING 00Z BALLOON LAUNCHES WILL BE THE FIRST TO
TRULY SAMPLE THIS STORM AND AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NEW
MODEL DATA...STARTING WITH THIS EVENINGS 00Z RUNS...COULD DIFFER
SUBSTANTIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE PAST FEW
DAYS. A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...BY AS
LITTLE AS 150NM...TO THE SOUTHEAST WOULD EASILY BRING MUCH HIGHER
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. SO...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR OUR AREA...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING IN THE HWO THE SIGNIFICANCE
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM TO THE REGION...AND THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.

THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WILL CERTAINLY PROMOTE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH A BREEZY SOUTH WIND EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUSTAINED WIND OF 15 TO NEAR
20KTS...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS APPROACHING 30KTS...WILL BE REALIZED.
AN EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THEN EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON SUNDAY...WITH A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WIND OF 15-20KTS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS NEAR 35KTS. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR FALLING SNOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WILL GO
AHEAD AND MENTION THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BLOWING SNOW
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

BEYOND SUNDAY...PERIODIC MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE AREA AS NORTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE OF THESE FEATURES PROVIDING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA IS TOO
LOW TO INSERT POPS INTO THE FORECAST. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION PROVIDING A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WESELY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

912 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...

IR IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE NE AND BECOMES
WEAKER. THIS HAS PREVENTED TMPS FROM FALLING OFF THIS EVENING AND
FEEL THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THUS WE HAVE UPDATED TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S /BASICALLY JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING FROM THE CURRENT TMPS/. THE ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI. IT APPEARS THAT
CLEARING IS GOING TO HAVE TO COME FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND WE
EXPECT THAT TO START HAPPENING ON FRI MORNING AS THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THUS WE KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN THROUGH THE MORNING
FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THEM FROM S TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NORTHEAST NEB REMAINING CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAY.

NEW ZFP/GRIDS ALREADY SENT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

PERSISTENCE APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST FOR THIS CYCLE. MOST
MODELS HAVE LITTLE CLUE THAT THE STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN THE TAF
SITES...WITH THE RAP AND HRRR HAVING THE BEST HANDLE. IT APPEARS
THAT THE EWD PROGRESS OF THE DECK HAS ENDED THIS AFTN AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTH AND WITH THE LOSS OF SFC
HEATING/MIXING. THUS WE WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON FRI. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS WHERE AND WHEN FOG WILL DEVELOP...WHICH THE MODELS HAVE LITTLE
HANDLE ON AS WELL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS
EVNG...BUT APPEARS THAT MOST VISBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRI AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD LIFT THE STRATUS DECK FINALLY OUT OF
THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

WINTER STORM APPEARS TO JUST GIVE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA A GLANCING
BLOW ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS JUST WEST AND NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

UNTIL THEN...AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TODAY WHICH MOST MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE FAILED TO
CAPTURE WELL EXCEPT FOR THE RAP/HRRR. IT SEEMS TO BE RETREATING
EVER SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL
PROVIDE A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...GIVEN THAT A
VERY SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN 0 AND 100 PERCENT CLOUD COVER WILL
EXIST FROM ALBION TO COLUMBUS TO BEATRICE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WESTERN EDGE COULD BEGIN MOVING
BACK WEST AS WE APPROACH SUNSET AND BEYOND AS NORTHEAST WINDS
BECOME EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST...THUS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUR STRATUS IF IT
HOLDS STRONG OVERNIGHT.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM THAT BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING BACK DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THE FORECAST AREA.
BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY STILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY
HAVE CONTINUED TO PULL THE LOW FURTHER WEST. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA
IN THE WARM SECTOR LONGER...EVEN WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
ALSO SHIFTS THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROBABLY TAKE A TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. GIVEN INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...H85 COMPUTED
LIFTED INDEX GOES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THUNDER FOR ALL AREAS AS WELL. GIVEN THAT WE MORE INTO
THE WARM SECTOR...HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND MORESO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEEMS THAT A VERY SMALL AREA IN OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE.
ALSO AT THIS SAME TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVE SHUT DOWN MOST
OF THE PRECIP BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

DEWALD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST GENERALLY DRY PERIOD ONCE WEEKEND SYSTEM LIFTS
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER FLOW SPLITS
WITH MAIN ENERGY STAYING TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. NEXT SET OF WAVES THEN APPROACH LATE IN
THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH 12Z MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND
STRENGTH SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. SINCE NORTHERLY FLOW
PREDOMINATES EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STAY ON THE COOL SIDE PER MEX
GUIDANCE AROUND CLIMATIC NORMALS WITH EXTENT AND TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER A MAJOR FACTOR FOR DIURNAL RANGE.

FOBERT

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

821 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
RAISED MIN TEMPS A BIT IN THE WEST AND CNTL OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST AS THE RUC AND SATELLITE SHOW
THIS BANK ADVANCING WEST TO NEAR HWY 83 BY MORNING AND THEN
RETREATING BACK EAST BY NOON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
A BIT OF A SNAFU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN NEB. WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS LIFT THE STRATUS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE RUC DROPS IT IN
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATES
THE RUC IS VERIFYING. SO A NEW TAF IS IN PLACE FOR KVTN.

PRESUMABLY...THE STRATUS SHOULD REVERSE AND MOVE BACK EAST FRIDAY MORNING TO
AROUND KBBW-KONL BY AROUND 17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE BANK OF STRATUS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEB THIS AFTN WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. WINDS SATURDAY INCREASE TO 18O22G32KT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS WHEELER...HOLT...AND
BOYD COUNTIES. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. SOUTH WINDS
LOOK TO STAY JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE A MILD DAY
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH AN
APPROACHING WINTER STORM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MID
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TRACK AND SPEED OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SNOWFALL LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS SOLUTIONS
TRENDED FURTHER NORTH THIS MORNING WITH THE H5 AND H7 LOWS. THE
GFS SOLN TRACKS THE H5 LOW FROM FAR NERN COLORADO...ALONG A LINE
FROM OGALLALA...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO BROKEN BOW...AND NORTHEAST OF
ONEILL. THE NAM SOLUTION IS FURTHER NORTH YET...TRACKING THE LOW
FROM NORTH OF SIDNEY...TO AINSWORTH TO NORTH OF ONEILL. THE LATEST
ECMWF TRENDED THE UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTH FROM AROUND GOODLAND
KS...TO SOUTH OF KEARNEY...TO NORFOLK. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED ON A COMPROMISE...AND MORE TOWARD THE GFS/EC
SOLUTION...WHICH FAVORS THE HEAVIEST SNOW...NORTH OF A LINE FROM
OGALLALA...TO STAPLETON TO ONEILL. IN THESE AREAS...DECIDED TO
HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 6
INCHES. AM EXPECTING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DECENT BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AS H85 WINDS REACH
50+ KTS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL NO DOUBT PRODUCE SOME
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO WORK NORTH INTO
SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY. AS A LEAD
DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF OF A DRYLINE OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA AS H5 WINDS ARE ORIENTED SOUTH TO NORTH. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED PER H85
LI`S. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSRAS...BUT GIVEN THE
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING.

RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS INTO CENTRAL...THEN
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. ATTM...BASED ON THE GFS TRACK...A NICE
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN SD AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS BAND...WHICH ATTM...IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
OGALLALA...TO STAPLETON TO ONEILL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ONE CAVEAT
IS THE ECMWF SOLN...WHICH IS 100 MILES FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK.
IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...HEAVY SNOW WOULD EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM
IMPERIAL...TO NORTH PLATTE TO BROKEN BOW. THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
HEADLINES AND FORECASTS WILL BE MADE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BEYOND MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL BRING DRY...BUT COLD
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH EXPECTED SNOW
COVER IN PLACE...TRENDED TEMPS BELOW THE LATEST MEX AND ECE
GUIDANCE.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
AN AREA OF LIFR STRATUS/FOG WILL LINGER INTO THEAFTERNOON HOURS
NORTHEAST OF A KBUB TO KANW LINE. THIS IS DUE TO AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT HAS BACK SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF
THE KVTN TAF SITE...AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ004>010-022>027-035>037-056-057-094.

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION....CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

733 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF A SNAFU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN NEB. WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS LIFT THE STRATUS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE RUC DROPS IT IN
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATES
THE RUC IS VERIFYING. SO A NEW TAF IS IN PLACE FOR KVTN.

PRESUMABLY...THE STRATUS SHOULD REVERSE AND MOVE BACK EAST FRIDAY MORNING TO
AROUND KBBW-KONL BY AROUND 17Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ004>010-022>027-035>037-056-057-094.

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION....CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

523 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

WINTER STORM APPEARS TO JUST GIVE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA A GLANCING
BLOW ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS JUST WEST AND NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

DEWALD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOBERT

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

1025 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THEN SETTLE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST BY MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...RAIN CONTINUES OVER ALL THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. AS THE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT
THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THAT AREA AS WELL. INCREASING
FGEN/OMEGA IN THE 850-700MB LEVEL PER RUC ANALYSIS WILL MAX OUT
AROUND 06Z AS VORTICITY ADVECTION BECOMES STRONGEST JUST AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SFC LOW. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
SC COAST BY 06Z...AND OVER EASTERN NC BY 12Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES. AS
THE LOW PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY DAYBREAK ACROSS EAST NC...WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY. AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OVER LAND...THOUGH COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OBX. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH
TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS A BROAD AREA...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY..RAIN WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END FROM SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI MORNING...PERHAPS LINGERING TO AROUND
NOON ACROSS THE FAR NE PORTIONS. SFC LOW WILL EXIT NC WHILE
DEEPENING. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE OBX AND EASTERN
MAINLAND...THOUGH ATTM LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. TEMPS GENERALLY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A SLIGHT CHANCE FRI EVENING FOR A SPRINKLE OR EVEN FLURRY
OVER THE OUTER BANKS...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTHEAST. DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES OFFSHORE
ALLOWING FOR A MULTILAYER DRY NW FLOW TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 SAT AND 50 TO 55 MOST SPOTS SUNDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REACH TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER INLAND
AREAS. WITH NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROF. RAIN CUD START
BEFORE DAWN OVER FAR INLAND AREAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR THE
ASSOCD COLD FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AND POTENTIALLY STALL AS IT COMES
UNDER PARALLEL FLOW OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. A CONCENSUS OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MAY LIFT BACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. WONT
BE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL
MODELS CAN BETTER RESOLVE THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
TREND BACK TO NEAR MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING MIDWEEK.

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM THU...JUST ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL 4
TERMINAL FORECASTS. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM MHX 88D SHOWS EAST AT 50
KNOTS AT 2 KFT. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING WHEN THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
WINDS TEMPORARILY DECREASE. WIDESPREAD IFR ALL AREAS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK FROM EAST NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING...TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST EARLY
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER AROUND 14Z FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE REGION SAT AND SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SUN. POTENTIAL
FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TON THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY...CURRENT OBS MATCH UP WELL WITH MARINE
ZONES. WINDS AT CAPE LOOKOUT HAVE BEEN GALE FORCE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS WINDS WILL DECREASE
LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW...NOW OVER SAVANNAH GA...TRACKS DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ALREADY
IN THE FORECAST SOUTH OF OCRACOKE SO WILL NOT UPGRADE TO GALE AT
THIS TIME. IT SHOULD ALSO BE POINTED OUT THAT NONE OF THE OTHER
OBS ON THE SOUTH COAST AND OFFSHORE ARE CLOSE TO THE CAPE LOOKOUT
OBSERVATION WHICH MAKES IT SEEM AS THOUGH A LOCAL EFFECT IS
OCCURRING AT THE SITE.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...RAPID DEEPENING
IS EXPECTED AND AS A RESULT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO GALES BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL INC TONIGHT INTO THE
6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE...REMAINING THERE FOR THE DURATION OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY LIFT WELL NE OF THE REGION FRI EVE. AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT AND SAT STRONG N WINDS
EXPECTED AS GRDNT WILL REMAIN TIGHT WITH DEEP LOW PRES WELL TO THE
NE. AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY SE WINDS WILL GRAD DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. LULL IN WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AS S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE MON AS HIGH MOVES OFF CST AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FORM
THE W.

AS N WINDS INCREASE LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO
10 FEET OVER OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO COME
DOWN SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS EXPECT DECENT SWELL FROM THE DEEP LOW TO
THE NE. S/SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS MOST WTRS MON
WITH SEAS 6-7 FT BY MON AFTN. SLOWLY DECREASING WIND/SEAS MON
NIGHT THRU TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING WINDS AND A HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
LEAD TO WATER LEVELS 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. NEARSHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO 8 FT
BUT BREAKING WAVES AND WAVE RUNUP WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SURF AND
POSSIBLE MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS THRU
SATURDAY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-
152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

704 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...RAIN SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. EXPECT RAIN TO
SPREAD INTO THAT AREA IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INCREASING
FGEN/OMEGA IN THE 850-700MB LEVEL PER RUC ANALYSIS WILL MAX OUT
AROUND 06Z AS VORTICITY ADVECTION BECOMES STRONGEST JUST AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SFC LOW. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
SC COAST BY 06Z...AND OVER EASTERN NC BY 12Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES. AS
THE LOW PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY DAYBREAK ACROSS EAST NC...WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY. AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OVER LAND...THOUGH COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OBX. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH
TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS A BROAD AREA...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
TREND BACK TO NEAR MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING MIDWEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...WIDESPREAD IFR ALL AREAS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK FROM NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING...TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST EARLY
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER AROUND 14Z FRI.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TON THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING. GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FOR A WHILE AS
LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NC BY DAYBREAK FRI. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...RAPID DEEPENING IS EXPECTED
AND AS A RESULT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO GALES
BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL INC TONIGHT INTO THE 6 TO 10 FOOT
RANGE...REMAINING THERE FOR THE DURATION OF FRIDAY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-
152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

949 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REALLY STICKY SITUATION THIS EVENING WITH THE FORECAST OF A
POTENTIAL METEOROLOGICAL MESS IN STORE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANAPOLIS WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE LINE. FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS NORTHEAST. THIS NORTHEAST
FLOW IS OFF LAKE ERIE INTO LUCAS...WOOD...OTTAWA AND SANDUSKY
COUNTIES. WE HAVE TWO FORCES WORKING AGAINST US IN THIS AREA.
FIRST OF ALL...THE LAKE IS AROUND 32 DEGREES AND THE AIR MASS
NORTH OF THE LAKE IS IN THE UPPER 20S. I THINK THE COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD IN PLACE BASED ON THE RUC MODEL AS THE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE EAST. THIS MEANS...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...FREEZING RAIN IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA STARTING NOW UNTIL 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING WHEN I EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND ENDING THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN.

NOW...FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA AS WELL ALLOWING THE COLD AIR TO HOLD IN PLACE FOR THE
TIME BEING. I THINK THE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK LATER TONIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION COULD BE FREEZING
RAIN AT THE ONSET AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ASHTABULA...ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES STARTING AROUND 1 AM AND CONTINUE IT UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
ADVISORY WILL ALSO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4
INCHES IN THAT AREA INTO FRIDAY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH SOME POSSIBLE BRIEF FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

A SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE STRONG EAST COAST STORM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS NWRN PA EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN SNOW MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS... RIGHT NOW HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE FORECAST
BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THE MOISTURE LINES UP COULD END UP BEING A
COUPLE MORE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT
EARLY...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT CHANCE PF PRECIP WILL COME
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS FOR RAIN.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LOW MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
BEFORE UPPER LEVEL JET AND CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SHOWERS DIMINISH. AFTER A WARM START TO THE
DAY...FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LEAVE AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE FROM NEAR QUEBEC TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH LATE TUESDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE ERIE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SO ONLY EXPECTING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN FAVORED
EASTERLY FLOW AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY
MID-WEEK WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN TRACKING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE DRIER CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT
SUNSET PRECIPITATION WAS OVER WESTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD REACH
TOL AND FDY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE OHIO AND PA BORDER JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE RAIN...TOL AND NW PA
ARE THE EXCEPTIONS...IT WILL BE A MIX. A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT ERI
SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN LOW. A DRY SLOT WILL OCCUR
FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GO OVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. IT IS POSSIBLE
IN THIS TRANSITION THAT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR EVEN A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS
LOW AT MOST TAF SITES...SO WILL NOT MENTION IT IN MOST OF THE
TAFS. CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN WILL BE A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR AND
THEN WHEN THE SNOW BEGIN MAINLY IFR. THE BULK OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE OVER NE OH AND NW PA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAINLY EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME NON-VFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE FRI MORNING WILL LEAD TO EAST FLOW
VEERING TO MORE SE INTO TONIGHT THEN AS THE LOW PASSES BY A N TO NW
FLOW WILL SET UP AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRI THEN STEADILY
DIMINISH FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE LAKE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE SUN AND AN INCREASING SE THEN S
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT BECOMING SW ON MON. AIR
TEMPS BY MON WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LAKE SO THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
WINDS FROM BECOMING AS STRONG AS WOULD OTHERWISE BE THE CASE. STILL
CAN SEE WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE MON INTO TUE WHILE WINDS TURN WEST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
OHZ014-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ003-
006>008.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

701 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE COULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CORRECT
SCENARIO...THEN THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN DIMINISHES.
HOWEVER...SKIES STILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR SOME EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE SNOW
PACK. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS TO SEE WHETHER WE WILL HAVE
THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THIS UPDATE.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO FRIDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT
SUNSET PRECIPITATION WAS OVER WESTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD REACH
TOL AND FDY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE OHIO AND PA BORDER JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE RAIN...TOL AND NW PA
ARE THE EXCEPTIONS...IT WILL BE A MIX. A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT ERI
SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN LOW. A DRY SLOT WILL OCCUR
FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GO OVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. IT IS POSSIBLE
IN THIS TRANSITION THAT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR EVEN A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS
LOW AT MOST TAF SITES...SO WILL NOT MENTION IT IN MOST OF THE
TAFS. CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN WILL BE A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR AND
THEN WHEN THE SNOW BEGIN MAINLY IFR. THE BULK OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE OVER NE OH AND NW PA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAINLY EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME NON-VFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

632 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS INTO THIS EVENING WITH AVIATION CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS
NORTHERN OHIO...THEN TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL INITIALLY RESULT IN WARMING OF THE AIR MASS OVERNIGHT AND
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN. TOLEDO WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE COLD AIR AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY SEEING A WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET...BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW. ALL SITES WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS AS A COLD
FRONT IS PULLED THROUGH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
TO MONITOR WINDS ALOFT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (MAINLY FINDLAY/MANSFIELD/CLE)
BETWEEN 06-12Z. IT WILL BE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW AND HAVE LEFT OUT
OF THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF FZRA/PL/FZDZ AT THE
OTHER SITES BUT CHANCES HAVE BEEN DECREASING AS TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TODAY AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME NON-VFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT TOO.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

441 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...IT WILL CONTROL THE REGIONS WEATHER INTO TOMORROW. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN AREA RAIN...BEFORE COLDER AIR CHANGES IT TO
SOME SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FA CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE N AND S. LATEST RUC MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT
THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS EARLY AND THE HIGHER CLOUDS
LATER IN THE NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.
WENT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE IN THE S...BUT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
N...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND ALREADY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE S TO UPPER TEENS IN THE EXTREME
RURAL NE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FA WILL BE UNDER WAA ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF THE DEVELOPING SFC AND CDFNT. THUS HAVE DRIED OUT
THURSDAY. GFS MOS REMAINS THE COLDEST. THIS COULD BE IN RESPONSE
TO THE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE N. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE...THIS PUTS VALUES IN THE N A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE COLD GFS MOS IN THE NW...BUT CLOSE ELSEWHERE.

THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. IT
IS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FEATURE AND WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING H5
S/W. THE GFS/ECMWF AND CMC ALL SWING THE STRONGER S/W IN AFTER
12Z FRI...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS...SNOW
IN THE N AND A RA/SN MIX IN THE S. SO KEPT THE 100 POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FRONT IN THE WAA AND LINGERED PCPN MAINLY FRI MORNING.
WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND ON THE THICKNESSES FOR THE CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW...SO WENT TO SNOW QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE NW...BUT
WAITED UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THE SRN LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS IN THE NW COULD BE EARLY FRIDAY IN THE NW...WITH MORE SRN
LOCATIONS MAYBE SEEING HIGHS AROUND NOON INSTEAD OF LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A MARKED INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WORKING IN EARLY IN THE DAY AS MODELS ARE BARELY SHOWING
THE ONSET OF RAIN IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z AND THE SURFACE TEMPS
ARE QUITE COLD. PULLING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP OUT AT THIS TIME
REMOVES THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RAIN TO NEED A FREEZING QUALIFIER IN
THE FORECAST.

KEPT A LIKELY CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

LEFTOVER COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM OVER THE TN
VALLEY IS NOW BEING PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SHOWS LARGER VARIANCES
WITH A LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SOME POPS WERE WARRANTED WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.

A WARMUP WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...THREW IN SNOW WHERE TEMPS
WERE BELOW FREEZING TO START THE DAY WITH...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT
IF PRECIP OCCURS IT WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT AND MORE OF A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW.

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
AT KLUK WHERE SOME MIST MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WILL ONLY SEE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT GRADUALLY
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

927 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVOLUTION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS A CHALLENGE. AS
SEEN OVERNIGHT THE NAM CONTINUES TO NOT HANDLE THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AT ALL. AND WHILE THE RAP SEEMS TO DEPICT THE CURRENT
SITUATION WELL...IT DOES GENERALLY HAVE A MOIST BIAS IN THE LOW
LEVELS. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY MOVING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE FATE
OF THE LOW CLOUDS. HAVE USED THE RAP AS GUIDE BUT TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR ITS BIAS. NONETHELESS IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES HEADING TOWARDS 00Z. MEANWHILE EROSION TO THE
CLOUD DECK FROM THE NORTH MAY STILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE I-70
CORRIDOR. BASED ON THIS FORECAST CLOUD PROGRESSION HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS SLIGHTLY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CWA WILL BE IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON THURSDAY...WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AS TEMPS WARM AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS
STILL APPEARS TO BE OVERLY COLD AT THE SURFACE...DESPITE BEING
AS WARM AS (OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN) THE OTHER MODELS ALOFT. WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...IT IS NOT A HUGE SURPRISE THAT
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT CAN HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON THE TEMP
FORECAST. THE MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY ARE SIMILAR TO A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE SREF MEAN.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS STILL FAIRLY GOOD (THOUGH NOT PERFECT) WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE IS BEING PHASED DIFFERENTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SO ITS
IMPACTS ON THE ILN CWA ARE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS ON THE
FORECAST WILL PROBABLY NOT BE TOO BIG...SINCE THE PHASING (IF IT
OCCURS) WILL HAPPEN AT AROUND THE SAME TIME THE FRONT IS MOVING
INTO THE CWA ANYWAY. SINCE THE POPS FOR THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO 100...THE POTENTIAL PHASING CANNOT INCREASE THE
FORECAST HIGHER THAN THAT. EVEN THE NAM12...WHICH HAS VIRTUALLY NO
IMPACT OVER THE ILN CWA FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IS PRETTY MUCH
IDENTICAL ON FRONTAL TIMING.

IN COMPARING THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH RH...FORCING...AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...IT NOW APPEARS THAT ALL MODELS ARE ENDING THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. THE CHANGEOVER IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
SHOULD BE SOON ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A
FIRST GUESS AT THE TOTALS DID NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING OVER AN INCH.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY COME IN WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
AT ALL.

SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS FRIDAY...AS
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL (TEMPS AT
850MB DO NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER 00Z). TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR MAXES ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT. TUESDAY FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY
UNDER RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING
SYSTEM PROGGED BY THE ECMWF TO ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40. READINGS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS WARM ADVECTION PUSHES HIGHS TO THE 40S AND 50S. A RETURN TO
NORMALLY COOL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION
ACCOMPANIES A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOST EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE HOW FAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL ERODE...DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. OVERALL
SATELLITE TREND OVER OHIO AND INDIANA WAS A SLOWLY SHRINKING AREA
OF STRATOCUMULUS...PERHAPS A COMPONENT OF INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF NOT CAPTURING THE
CURRENT MOISTURE AND PERHAPS HOLDING ON TO IT TOO LONG DUE TO KNOW
MOISTURE BIASES. ATTM...HAVE DECIDED TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE
STRATOCUMULUS...THINKING ERODING/DISSIPATING WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT IF THE CLOUDS
DO NOT ERODE/DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME...THEY COULD HANG AROUND A
LITTLE LONGER AFTER 00Z UNTIL DRIER AIR AND WAA PUSH THE CLOUDS TO
THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY LINGER STRATOCUMULUS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

544 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
KMLC AND KFSM WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR OR LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. ONCE THE FOG
LIFTS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT KMLC WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z-08Z TONIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES LATE TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013/

DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY ACTIVE FORECAST THIS MORNING...BEGINNING WITH ONGOING DENSE
FOG ONCE AGAIN. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF
SEBASTIAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. EASTERN EDGE OF THE FOG
IS MORE PATCHY THAN AREAS TO THE WEST...AND VISIBILITIES IN THIS
AREA HAVE NOT BEEN AS CONSISTENTLY LOW. AS A RESULT...PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS SEBASTIAN COUNTY...MAY NEED TO
BE REMOVED FROM THE ADVISORY A BIT LATER. SATELLITE INDICATING
THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS SPREADING MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ACROSS AREAS
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR...WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES
COMMON. HAVE ADDED CREEK AND PAWNEE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY AS A
RESULT. RUC RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST THAT TULSA AND OSAGE
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THESE WERE
LESS OF A CERTAIN SO HELD OFF FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR. THE FOG WILL
BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE MOST AFFECTED AREAS /GENERALLY WEST OF
A HUGO TO EUFAULA TO PAWNEE LINE/...SO HAVE LINGERED A PATCHY FOG
MENTION THROUGH NOON IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES...HOLDING READINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM LOCATIONS
FURTHER EAST.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL
LIKELY GRAZE THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. BENEFICIAL
RAINS...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING AS MUCH AS AN INCH...WILL
BE THE MAIN OUTCOME OF THIS EVENT. TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS FINALLY
CAUGHT ON TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION FEATURING A DRYLINE
PASSAGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THEIR 00Z SOLUTIONS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE DRYLINE DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE EARLY DRYLINE PASSAGE
WILL LIKELY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE RAINS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL BEHIND THE DRYLINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THAT THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE NON
EXISTENT.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE ON THE WAY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM. A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT /THE ECMWFS FASTER
SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER THIS MORNING/. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAN FALLS...IF THE
TUESDAY NIGHT TIMING ENDS UP VERIFYING.

A RELATIVELY QUICK WARMUP LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS SOUTH WINDS MAKE A QUICK RETURN TO THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS PASSAGE.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ059-
OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ071-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ029.

AVIATION...05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

306 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...

A RELATIVELY QUICK WARMUP LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS SOUTH WINDS MAKE A QUICK RETURN TO THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS PASSAGE.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ059-
OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ029.

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

235 PM PST WED FEB 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. STEADIER RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO LARGELY DRY WEATHER
OVER THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT ON SATURDAY WHEN LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 130W MOVING TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND. A FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED COLD FRONT IS JUST EAST OF 130W AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THE MAIN FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST AROUND 7-9PM AND CLOSER TO
9-11PM FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST
SIMILAR TIMING SO I SHIFTED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS TO A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING. I DID HOWEVER KEEP POPS NEAR 100 ALONG
THE COAST WHERE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT LOWERED
THEM CONSIDERABLY FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE ONLY SCATTERED
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. EITHER WAY...EVERYONE SHOULD SEE
SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MAIN
BAND OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SPREADS INLAND.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM AROUND 3500 FT THIS EVENING TO NEAR 2000
FT THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATIVELY INTENSE
FOR A COUPLE HOURS OVERNIGHT...THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
WX STORY WAS ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE
CASCADES TONIGHT.

A COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY SO HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET. 850MB WINDS
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING SO OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE
TERRIBLY PRONOUNCED. MODELS DO SUGGEST A MINI TROWAL LIKE FEATURE
MAY FOCUS SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OFF THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST POPS WERE HEDGED IN
THAT DIRECTION THURSDAY. INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW AND DECREASING
INSTABILITY THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DISSIPATING
QUICKLY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING
SUNSHINE TO THE AREA.

MODELS ALL LOOSELY AGREE ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT...POPS
AND SKY COVER WERE INCREASED TO AT LEAST SUGGEST THERE IS A SHOT AT
THE DAY ENDING UP MORE WET THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EAST PACIFIC CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. SOME OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG MAY DEVELOP UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE FUNDAMENTAL DISAGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GEM
HINT AT A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE STUBBORNLY OVER THE AREA. FOR
NOW...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BROWN

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR AS OF 21Z WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR.
LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR THE 00Z TAFS. EXPECT
CIGS TO BECOME PRIMARILY MVFR AROUND 22Z ON THE S WA AND N OREGON
COAST...ABOUT 00Z THU ON THE CENTRAL COAST...AND AFTER 04Z THU
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. GOING FOR PREDOMINANT MVFR AFTER 04Z
THU...WITH GUSTY S WIND TO 40 KT ALONG ON THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THU WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT
MTNS AND PASSES TO BE OBSCURED. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
CASCADES NEAR 15Z...BUT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO A VFR/MVFR MIX ALONG
THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS BY THAT TIME.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH MOST CIGS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND FL035.
THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME SHORT PERIODS OF HIGH-END
MVFR...ESPECIALLY ON WRN APPROACHES. CONDITIONS START TO WORSEN
AFTER 04Z THU AND EXPECT A DROP TO MVFR AROUND 06Z THU. RAIN
INCREASES AFTER 06Z WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL
CLOSE TO 12Z. A VFR/MVFR MIX SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 15Z...FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. WEISHAAR

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE SETTLED DOWN TO 13 TO 15 FT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ENP GUIDANCE TRACKING QUITE WELL WITH AVAILABLE OBS.
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS GALE
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. LATEST NAM AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS VALID
00Z THU...GENERALLY 25-35 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WIND OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY BY 06Z THU. MAY
BE CARRYING THE GALE WARNING A LITTLE TOO LONG...BUT WILL LET THE
EVENING SHIFT EVALUATE THAT A BIT MORE. THE INCREASED WIND WILL
CREATE COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO 20 FT...WITH A LARGE WIND-WAVE
COMPONENT. SEAS FALL BACK TO 12 TO 15 FT RANGE ON THU.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRI AND SAT...WITH NW WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DROP BACK UNDER 10 FT ON FRI
BUT CREEP BACK TO 10 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WEISHAAR

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST THURSDAY.

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

302 PM MST WED FEB 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL ND...WITH A SURFACE TROF STRETCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...AND A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SKIES ARE PARTLY
SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. REGIONAL RADARS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ECHO RETURNS...EXCEPT FOR SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD...MAINLY FROM THE 2WX TO RAP CORRIDOR.

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LOW OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS LATE THIS WEEK...AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW AND SOME ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS IN THE USUAL
COLDER SPOTS. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY.
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE ON THURSDAY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...PERSISTING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN WY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN. THE SYSTEM
ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WY AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED...POTENT EJECTING SW CONUS DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT A
STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING WIND AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
FA. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME TO CLOSE CONSENSUS PER THE
TRACK/STRENGTH/AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH AT LEAST
SEMI-NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PHASING STILL SUGGESTED IN ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. BRIEF BLOCKING PER THE EXPECTED WOUND UP SFC
CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS LONG TRAJECTORY NORTHERLY
FLOW RESULTS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW WILL QUICKLY
RETURN WITH WESTERN NOAM RIDGING SPILLING OVER INTO THE WESTERN
NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT
PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE INDICATING. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING POPS
OVER SCENTRAL SD PER THIS WEEKEND/S STORM SYSTEM...DUE TO INCREASED
CONFIDENCE PER THIS SYSTEM/S TRACK GIVEN GROWING AGREEMENT PER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. ANALYSIS OF FGEN/WAA/MID LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A
RATHER STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM OVER NORTHERN NE INTO
SD...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY ESP GIVEN THE DEVELOPING
GOMEX CONNECTION INDICATED IN H85 THETA-E PROGS. THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT CURRENT CONSENSUS
INDICATIONS SUGGEST INVOF TODD/MELLETTE/AND TRIPP COUNTIES AND
EAST...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES EXISTS. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS WOULD LIKELY CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH SIG VIS REDUCTION. WILL FRESHEN THE
HWO FOR THIS CONCERN. THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL SEE MUCH LOWER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY 2 INCHES TO A
DUSTING...SAVE THE NORTHERN BH WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE GIVEN A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SUN/SUN NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST MON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BY
TUE...SUPPORTING WARMING TEMPS THROUGH WED...WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS BY THEN...ESP IN AREAS THAN DON/T SEE MUCH SNOW THIS
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT THAT SCT
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLKHLS AND FAR NERN WY THIS
AFTN. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
BRINGING CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS MAY FOSTER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLKHLS THRU
24Z. WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BACKING TO THE S ACROSS NE
WY THROUGH THUR AM.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....JC
AVIATION...JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

304 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THE MAIN
CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. MODELS SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT 300MB JET MAX. STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER JET MAX RETURNS TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE WAS PRODUCING A BAND OF SNOW THAT EXTENDED FROM
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SNOWFALL
IN THIS BAND WAS RATHER HEAVY SO IT SHOULD PRODUCE A QUICK
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO AS IT PASSES. RADAR SHOWED A BAND
OF ECHOES ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT
INDICATING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 18Z RUC SHOWED QPF
IN THIS AREA SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINTED AT SOME MID LEVEL DRYING
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTIONED ALONG WITH THE
SNOW.

AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. A 500MB SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE STATE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/09Z SREF DID NOT
INDICATE FREEZING PRECIPITATION FOR ANY OF THE LOCATIONS IN THE
AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY DID IN THE MSN AND MKE
AREAS. HPC WINTER PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE KEPT ANY MEASURABLE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH 24 HOUR TOTALS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY OF 6+ INCHES FROM JUST EAST OF GREEN BAY AND
THE FOX CITIES TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NEXT WED. A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS AT THE ONSET TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AS A LARGE UPR RDG BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM
LONGWAVE TROF SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. MDLS
CONT TO SHOW A MAJOR SYSTEM WL LIFT NE FROM CO INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SAT NGT INTO MON BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PCPN TO NE WI. MEAN
FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES SPLIT OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WITH THE UPR
TROF SHIFTING EAST. HOWEVER...A SFC HI SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH TEMPS OVERALL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTOI THU EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
THRU WI. CONCERNED ABOUT ERN WI WHERE LIFT IS STRONGER AND WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE FCST TO BE N-NE. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO TAKE PLACE
AND THIS COULD ADD UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. PCPN
WL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...ALTHO THE
LAKESHORE MAY NOT SEE THE SNOW COME TO A COMPLETE END TIL CLOSE TO
DAYBREAK. HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATER THU NGT
COULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL WI AND MAY NEED TO
LWER TEMPS A BIT TO COMPENSATE. THIS AREA OF HI PRES WL BE SITUATED
OVER WI ON FRI PROVIDING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND
TYPICAL TEMPS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. LOOK FOR READINGS TO GENERALLY
REACH THE 25-30 DEG RANGE OVER ALL OF NE WI.

THE HI PRES BEGINS TO SLIDE TO OUR EAST FRI NGT ALLOWING A RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER WI. THE ONSET OF WEAK ISEN LIFT SHOULD BRING
SOME HI CLOUDS INTO THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP OFF DUE TO FRESH SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS. PREFER THE COLDER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHOPPED TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS. AS THE LONGWAVE TROF CHUGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ON SAT...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE OVER SE CO AS A SFC
LOW QUICKLY INTENSIFIES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC HI CONTS TO PULL
FARTHER EAST AND THE SOUTH WINDS STEADILY INCREASE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THESE SOUTH WINDS WL ALSO HELP BRING GULF
MOISTURE NWD...SO WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
DAY. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE 30 DEG MARK DESPITE
THE CLOUDS.

AS A 110+ KT UPR JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF...THE SFC LOW
IS FCST TO START MOVING NE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SAT NGT AND REACH
THE MIDWEST (VICINITY NW IA) ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTS
TO STREAM INTO WI WITH A WRMFNT LIFTING TO THE WI/IL BORDER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FORCING (BOTH Q-G AND FRONTOGENETICAL)
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE REGION WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPR JET ADDING LIFT. EXPECT TO SEE PCPN GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD WI ON SUNDAY...BUT WHAT TYPE OF PCPN? WHILE MOST OF THE
MDLS ARE GETTING CLOSER TO A FINAL TRACK SOLUTION (EXCEPT THE GEM
WHICH REMAINS SOUTH)...THE THERMAL FIELDS VARY BETWEEN THE WARMER
GFS AND THE COOLER ECWMF/UKMET. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHAT THE
SFC TEMPS TO BE AT ONCE THE PCPN BEGINS...AS THIS WOULD PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING RAIN VS. FREEZING RAIN VS. SNOW. IN
ESSENCE...IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PINPOINT PCPN TYPES AT
THIS TIME...OTHER THAN N-CNTRL WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING
ALL SNOW AND E-CNTRL WI WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING MORE
RAIN THAN SNOW WITH A MIX IN BETWEEN.

SNOW/MIXED PCPN WL CONT SUNDAY NGT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NE INTO
N-CNTRL WI WITH THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURRING OVER THE NW
1/4 OF WI. THIS WOULD LIKELY CLIP PARTS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT FOR
MOST OF THE FCST AREA...TOO MUCH OF A MIX WL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS.
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS AWAY ON MON AND COLDER AIR GETS PULLED SWD...
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WOULD TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW. SINCE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ALREADY HAVE EXITED...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ON MON...ESPECIALLY IF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE MIXES IN. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
OVER VILAS CNTY MON NGT...THE WEATHER BECOMES FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES ON TUE AS THE POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF MOVES
THRU THE GREAT LAKES. HI PRES PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON WED WL BRING
A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING UP A BIT.
&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE AREA
BECOME IFR IN SNOW... WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-
020>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

$$
MG/KALLAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

223 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
223 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS/RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A
COUPLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WAVE NUMBER ONE WAS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS NORTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. WAVE NUMBER 2
WHICH IS MORE VIGOROUS WAS MOVING EAST OUT OF WESTERN SD/NEB. THIS
WAVE ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IA WITH RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING MID-LEVEL RETURNS HEADED THIS WAY.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA.

LATEST MODELS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NAM SEEMS A BIT SHY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GIVEN FORCING SIGNALS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/SREF AS WELL AS THE GEM/ECMWF FOR QPF
AMOUNTS.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE NUMBER 2 OVER WESTERN SD/NEB WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD WITH INCREASING 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTO THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
INTO OUR AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WITH A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN NORTH OF I-94. PLAN ON THIS
WINTRY MIX TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON
SOUNDING DATA PROFILES. EXPECTING TO SEE TRACE TO AS MUCH AS 2/10 OF
AN INCH OF ICE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 IN
THE 1/2 TO 2 INCH RANGE. ANOTHER DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PERHAPS ENOUGH
ICE/DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE COLUMN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED WINTRY MIX...WENT WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL WITH THE TROUGH ROTATING
OVERHEAD. TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO
THE FLURRIES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY/QUIET CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.

PLAN ON INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE GETTING ORGANIZED ON THE LEESIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
223 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 06.12Z
GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHWARD SHIFT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OFF OF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL STALL OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH EJECTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE 06.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE
AGAIN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RUN FOR TAKING THE CORE OF THE LOW
FROM EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
SUNDAY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LEADS TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN
BEING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE AS
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE. DETAILS WILL EMERGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT 06.12Z GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER OVER A SUB
FREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER THAT WOULD LEAD TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET. THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE THEN WARMS ENOUGH
THAT MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD JUST BE RAIN BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
ON THE BACK SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM...SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A COOL DOWN AFTER
THE SYSTEM PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID WEEK.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
1154 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE MOISTENING OF THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY
LAYER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
00Z TO 05Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST 06.12Z GFS/NAM AND 06.15Z RAP
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SURGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE MODELS DO
SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 290K SURFACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS MOISTURE. THE 06.12Z GFS/NAM AND 06.15Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOSS OF ICE IN THE ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AND INDICATE DEVELOPMENT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND CEILINGS/ VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z TO 09Z AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES. THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE IFR CONDITIONS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND POSSIBLY AFTER
18Z THURSDAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
223 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1158 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...
1147 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

HAVE REVISITED THE IMPACT OF THE WINTRY MIX MOVING IN FOR TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BRING SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. CURRENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING INTO IOWA
AND FORCING INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE A MIX SPREADING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE EXPECT THIS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WHILE WARMING WILL OCCUR...ROAD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW CAUSING A FREEZING RAIN
SCENARIO. FORECAST IN THE PROCESS OF BEING UPDATED. WEB SHOULD
HOLD LATEST FORECAST.

WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 6 PM
THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION. WE
EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER THURSDAY AFTER THE SNOW CHANCES
END...THUS THE NORTHERN AREA WILL BE IN ADVISORY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
353 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

06.00 FORECAST MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GEM IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION SO HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE GEM IS RIGHT THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE IN FOR
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. IF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK
THE FORECAST AREA WOULD SEE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT
LOW. AFTER TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S ON
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S BY TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
1154 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1146 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...SCHMIDT/JONES/TH/DB
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DTJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

1004 PM PST THU FEB 7 2013

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORCAL THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM IS
MOISTURE STARVED AND PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE MOST PART. THE PLACES THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST HAVE BEEN
FROM WILLOW TO REDDING WHERE CONVECTION FLARED UP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING REDDING HAS PICKED 0.21 INCHES AS OF 9 PM
AND ALSO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE BLUE CANYON HAS RECEIVED 3
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. SEVERAL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE
EVENING WERE PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WITH ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH
IN A FEW SPOTS.

MAIN ENERGY WITH STORM WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH CENT
CAL TONIGHT AND SOCAL TOMORROW. FEEL NAM AND RUC HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION AND BOTH MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE
PRECIP OVER THE SAC VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. BETTER CHANCES
WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT STOCKTON/MODESTO AND SRN SIERRA AS
DISTURBANCE PIVOTS THROUGH CENT CAL. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
LOWER POPS BACK INTO THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR MOST OF THE SAC
VALLEY INCLUDING SACRAMENTO OVERNIGHT...BUT RAISED THEM INTO THE
NUMEROUS CATEGORY OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. HAVE ENDED THE
WINTER WX ADV FOR THE SIERRA...AS PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED AND ONLY
EXPECT UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND
3000 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A COLD UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXIT TO THE EAST
TOMORROW. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE OVER INTERIOR
NORCAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST LIFT WILL SKIRT OUR AREA AS
THE JETSTREAK DIVES FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. PRECIP WILL THUS BE LIMITED TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS AS
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSIST AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. SOME CENTRAL VALLEY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
REDUCES THE LOW-LEVEL CAPE AND ENDS THE THREAT. MODELS VARY WITH
HANDLING THE PLACEMENT OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP...LOCALLY AS LOW AS 2000 FEET OVERNIGHT. ONLY A
FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIP. AS SUCH...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND HASTENED THE ENDING TIME
OF THE ADVISORY OVER THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SIERRA.

SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THE CENTRAL VALLEY LOOKS TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WITH A
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN SAC VALLEY. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA (MOSTLY SOUTH OF
I80)...BUT TOTALS WILL BE SPOTTY AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN COOL WITH FROSTY MORNINGS POSSIBLE. -DVC

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

DRY WEATHER PATTERN REESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR NORCAL AS DRY NLY FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EFP. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE EFP RESULTS IN NLY FLOW FROM B.C. AND
THE PAC NW WITH CONTINUED COLD/CHILLY TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MON
MORNING WITH COLD AIR FROM THE GREAT BASIN SPREADING INTO INTERIOR
NORCAL. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS MODIFIES TUE/WED OVER NORCAL AS A
SHORT WAVE TROF FLATTENS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA AND
THE FLOW INTO NORCAL COMES INTO THE AREA FROM A LOWER LATITUDE.
THIS SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND RE-AMPLIFIES
THE W COAST RIDGE BRINGING MORE COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE YUKON/B.C
AREA BY THU MORNING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CHILLY MIN TEMPS AND
BREEZY N TO NELY WINDS.

AFTER THE WINDS DIMINISH TUE/WED SOME MORNING PATCHY FOG/FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SRN SAC VLY SWD INTO THE DELTA AND SAN JQN VLY.
WHILE THE MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEG BELOW
NORMAL...MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...IF NOT SEVERAL
DEG ABOVE NORMAL WHERE FAVORABLE ADIABATIC WARMING EFFECTS OCCUR.
JHM

.AVIATION...

CD UPR LOW WL MOV S ACRS INTR NORCAL TNGT INTO FRI. MNLY VFR CONDS
EXC LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS POSS IN SHWRS NXT 24 HRS...MNLY OMTNS. SN
LVLS GENLY AOA 020 AMSL. SWLY FLOW ALF BCMG NLY FRI WITH LCL NLY SFC
WND GSTS TO 25 KTS FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT.

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

333 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...
A BROAD STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WILL UNDERGO RAPID
DVLPMNT TODAY AS IT BECOMES SANDWICHED BTWN TWO H25 JET STREAKS...A
100KT MAX OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND A 110KT MAX OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE GEORGES BANK. AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP...IT WILL CRANK A COLD
FRONT RAPIDLY THRU CENTRAL FL...PULLING IT S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
MID AFTN. PREFRONTAL MOISTURE BAND IS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH H100-H70
MEAN RH VALUES LARGELY BLO 80PCT...MOST OF WHICH ALREADY HAS PUSHED
S OF 27N LAT (THE SRN MOST BNDRY FOR THE CWA).

PROGRESS OF THE FRNTL BNDRY WILL ONLY SERVE TO PUSH THE MOISTURE
FURTHER AWAY FROM CENTRAL FL. FURTHERMORE...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SINKING AIRMASS WITH POSITIVE MID LVL OMEGA...NEGATIVE UPR
LVL DIVERGENCE... AND NEUTRAL MID LVL VORTICITY ADVECTION. FCST WILL
BE FREE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP.

AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ASSOCD WITH THE FRONTAL TROF ITSELF WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO E CNTRL FL BY DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN MCLDY SKIES
THRU MID MORNING. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF BY MIDDAY...GIVING WAY TO
MSUNNY SKIES WITH SFC WINDS SHFTG FROM SW TO NW. DESPITE THE DVLPG
NW FLOW...CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SOURCE REGION
FOR THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WAS THE SRN PLAINS. MAX TEMPS IN THE
L/M70S FROM KISSIMMEE-MELBOURNE NWD...M/U70S TO THE S.

TONIGHT...
POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL PUSH ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...FORCING SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE N. AN H85-H50 SHORT
WAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE
A SECONDARY FRONT THRU THE FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCD MOISTURE BAND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A AREA OF STRONG ZONAL FLOW
THAT WILL CARRY THE BULK OF IT OFFSHORE BEFORE IT CAN PUSH INTO
CENTRAL FL. NO MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES.

DESPITE THE NRLY FLOW AND THE ASSOCD POST FRONTAL DRYING...PGRAD
WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT DECOUPLING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE L/M50S INTERIOR COUNTIES...M/U50S COASTAL COUNTIES
WITH PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST HOLDING IN THE L60S S OF THE
CAPE.

WEEKEND...FAIRLY STRONG SFC HIGH (1030MB) OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY SAT WILL TRANSLATE E/SE TO THE MID ATLC COAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN NE FLOW SATURDAY VEERING TO SE
FLOW SUNDAY AFTN. BREEZY AT THE COAST BOTH DAYS...ESP SUNDAY AS
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. DRY W/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
ATMOS DRY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
PRODUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850 MB WHICH WILL TRAP SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER CU THAT
PANCAKES BENEATH THE INVERSION SO EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SINCE THE MOISTURE LAYER WILL BE THIN...THERE WILL BE VERY
LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE PERVASIVE SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S...WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY AS WINDS DEVELOP
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

MON-THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SEAWARD WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA MON-TUE. RESULTING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PLACE EC FL SQUARELY BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S MANY PLACES. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND RIDING E/NE TO THE CAROLINA
COAST...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN WE ARE IN NOW. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE QUICKER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WED...ECMWF
6-12 HOURS LATER. SUCH TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOT THAT UNUSUAL BUT
IT DOES UNDERSCORE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME
FRAME. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.

.AVIATION...
THRU 08/16Z...SWRLY LLWS BTWN 25-30KTS BLO FL010...AREAS MVFR/LCL
IFR CIGS. AFT 08/16Z...VFR ALL SITES...WNDSHFT TO N/NW ARND 12KTS.

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE NECK OF THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATES A FRESH TO
STRONG WRLY BREEZE THRU LATE AFTN. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NW
BEHIND THE FRONT BY MIDDAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BCMG A LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZE BY SUNSET. NEVERTHELESS THE PREVAILING OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BTWN
2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE. SCA THRU 21Z LOOKS GOOD.

TONIGHT...PGRAD WILL RETIGHTEN AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE PUSHES ACRS
THE DEEP SOUTH...RESULTING IN A MODERATE TO FRESH NRLY BREEZE. SEAS
2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE...BUT REMAINING CHOPPY IN THE
GULF STREAM DUE TO THE OPPOSING WIND/CURRENT DIRECTIONS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE RULE AS IT BUILDS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
VEER TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS NEAR THE COAST AND
15-18 KTS OFFSHORE. WILL LIKELY NEED CAUTION STATEMENT AT LEAST
FOR THE GULF STREAM. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 3-5 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 4-6 OFFSHORE AS A NORTHEAST SWELL MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL
FORCE A GRADUAL WNDSHFT TO E/SE. LCL PGRAD SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SFC/BNDRY LYR WNDS BTWN 15-20KTS. SEAS 4-6FT
THRU THE DAY BUILDING TO 5-7FT OVERNIGHT AS THE ERLY SWELL TRAIN
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE LCL ATLC.

MON-TUE...LCL PGRAD WILL RELAX AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
WINDS BCMG S/SE 10-15KTS BY LATE AFTN...CONTG OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-5FT
NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE...SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT AND 3-5FT
RESPECTIVELY OVERNIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 54 72 53 / 10 10 0 0
MCO 76 55 76 53 / 10 10 0 0
MLB 75 60 75 60 / 10 10 0 0
VRB 76 59 76 59 / 10 10 0 0
LEE 74 53 75 52 / 10 10 0 0
SFB 75 54 75 53 / 10 10 0 0
ORL 75 56 75 55 / 10 10 0 0
FPR 77 59 75 59 / 10 10 0 0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1241 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.AVIATION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ALREADY SETTLING IN AT KSBN WITH SPECIAL
JUST COMING IN FOR LIFR CIGS AND LOWERING VSBYS. KVPZ HAS WENT
DOWN TO 200 FT CIGS AND VSBYS AROUND A HALF MILE. HAVE GOTTEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON CIGS/VSBYS AT KSBN FOR A FEW HOURS AND WENT WITH
DRIZZLE FOR THE TIME BEING. SWITCH OVER LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMEWHERE
AROUND 8Z AT KSBN. IN KFWA...BACK EDGE OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH OVER THE NEXT HOUR...FOLLOWED BY DRIZZLE AND
FOG MUCH LIKE KSBN TILL LATER TONIGHT. SKEPTICAL MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP WILL OCCUR AT KFWA SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON VSBY
IMPACT THERE.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY WORK IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN KSBN AND LATE AFTN AT
KFWA. CLEARING COULD OCCUR A BIT QUICKER THAN MODELS INDICATING
BUT HAVE WENT WITH THE ABOVE TIMING FOR NOW.

.UPDATE...
DRY SLOT WORKING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PATCHY DRIZZLE BEING OBSERVED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT DROPPING VSBYS TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WILL
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SFC
TEMPS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. OTHERWISE...DRIZZLE/FOG
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING AND WHAT`S LEFT OF A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS
NE ILLINOIS MOVES IN. VSBYS WITH THIS AREA HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 4
SM RANGE...WHICH ISN`T OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. IF
ANY DOES OCCUR...LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD WOULD
SEE THE BEST CHANCE...BUT STILL LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS AS BEST
DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MSTR SHIFT EAST. MAY NEED TO DO SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST BUT WILL SEE WHAT 1 AM OBS LOOK LIKE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013/

AVIATION/UPDATE...
CONTD NORTHWEST/LEFT SHIFT OF SFC LOW TRACK DRAW INTO NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF/HGHT FALL CENTER AS IT QUICKLY AMPLIFIES TO 100-130
M/12 HR FALLS ACRS SRN GRTLKS. WITH FALL CENTER INITIALLY WELL
LAGGED...EVOLVES TO A CLOSELY STACKED SFC-MIDTROPOSPHERIC SYSTEM BY
12 UTC FRI. THROUGH THE EVENING A SHARPER NW/N PULL OF MAX TW WITHIN
LWST HALF KM MATERIALIZES /WELL CAPTURED PER RAP ANALYSIS/ TO THEN
ABRUPTLY COLLAPSE PER INTENSE DYNAMIC COOLING AND UNQUESTIONABLY
EVAP COOLING SPCLY SERN HALF OF CWA. ONLY FAR SERN THERMAL PROFILE
TO SUPPORT LIQUID BYND 06 UTC. GIVEN A MORE ABRUPT THERMAL COLLAPSE
ANTICIPATE MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW EVENT ACRS CWA. STILL ANTICIPATE
SOME SLEET SPCLY ACRS NRN CWA WITH MORE ENVIGORED DEEP/UVM NORTH OF
INTENSE LLVL FGEN FOCUS. RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY ERASURE OF MSTR DEPTH AS DRY SLOT CONTS ENE ADVANCE. SHORT
SNOWFALL WINDOW ALONG WITH ANTECEDENT WARM/WET SFC SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMS AND WL ADJUST DOWNWARD. STILL CHC OF FZDZ/FLURRIES MIX NEAR
DAYBREAK/FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF MIDLVL TROF/DCVA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

LONG TERM... / SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY /

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ077>081.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
UPDATE...FISHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1146 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE MVFR
VSBSYS WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THE INDIANA LOW AND NORTHERN PLAINS
HIGH. NORTH WINDS ALSO BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING IN DRIER AIR CAUSING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO 6 MILES OR BETTER
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIGS INTO THE 1K TO 2K RANGE BY 12Z. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

DLF

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE SNOW HAS ENDED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA. A ROUGH TIMING OF THE
BACK EDGE SUGGESTS THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA AROUND 05Z.

AMOUNT WISE...IT APPEARS THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES FELL IN THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR EAST OF KDBQ DOWN INTO CARROLL COUNTY. THESE NUMBERS ARE
BASED ON WHAT SPOTTER REPORTS WE HAVE RECEIVED SO FAR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. ..08..

ERVIN

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

313 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THURSDAYS SHORTWAVE. THE NEXT
UPPER SYSTEM WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH
CIRRUS PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NARROW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS STRETCHED NORTH TO SOUTH FROM WESTERN
MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL KANSAS AT 08Z WITH STRATUS DECK NEAR ITS AXIS
AND SPREADING SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS. KOAX SOUNDING
SUGGESTS THE STRATUS IS QUIET SHALLOW AND A FEW HOLES IN UPSTREAM
STATES ARE EVIDENT VIA 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE PRODUCT. SOME FOG
HAS DEVELOPED IN NEBRASKA ALONG THE STRATUS DECK EDGE...AND SOME
MAY YET FORM SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WILL MONITOR LATEST TRENDS FOR ANY
INCLUSION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRATUS...WITH ONLY THE RAPID
UPDATE MODELS HAVING A CLUE. THEIR TRACK RECORD WITH SUCH FEATURES
IS NOT GREAT...WITH THIS FORECASTER EXPERIENCING A WET/COOL BIAS
FROM THE RAP ON MANY EVENTS. RECENT RUNS OF IT AND THE HRRR SUGGEST
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RIDGE AXIS MAKE
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING...AND DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR A FAST CLEARING...BUT IF THE
HOLES CAN BE MAINTAINED THE PEAKS OF INSOLATION WOULD HELP BURN THE
STRATUS OFF. WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S FOR
THE BULK OF THE AREA.

MOISTENING PROCESS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW BRINGS BACK TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MEAGER LOW-MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PERHAPS LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PRECIP BREAKING OUT. INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
THE 8C/KM RANGE WITH A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE RESULTING...BUT GOOD
1-6KM SHEAR APPEARS TO COME WITH THE DRY SLOT. MODELS NOT TERRIBLY
STRONG WITH QPFS AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION AS THIS POINT. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE AT THIS
RANGE.

PRECIP STILL ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY EXIT SUNDAY AS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEEPENS THROUGH COLUMN. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
WINDS AS SOME SOLUTIONS MIX SURFACE PARCELS WELL INTO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES TAKE
PLACE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LATE DAY MAY KEEP TEMPS STEADY TO
FALLING IN THE NORTHWEST.

NEXT TROF TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN MONDAY
NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT PERIODS WITH WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING MUCH OF
THE COLUMN. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE
INTO THE MID WEEK. MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVES BY LATE WEEK HOWEVER.

.AVIATION...
EXCEPT FOR THE RAP...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LITTLE CLUE ABOUT THE
STRATUS. THINK THAT IT MAY BE HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH CAUSING WINDS TO VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF THE
STRATUS TO THE EAST AND LIMITED MIXING DUE TO THE RIDGE...IT SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS COULD HANG IN FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS HAPPENING. THEREFORE THE FORECAST LEANS
ON PERSISTENCE UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST AND WINDS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING. THINK CIGS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. CONFIDENCE IN THE CIG FORECAST IS MARGINAL.

WOLTERS

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

250 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
HAIL SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THIS STORM SYSTEM WAS DIGGING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS TRANSLATING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG WERE BACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SINCE
MANY OF THE SHORT-TERM MODELS HAD TROUBLE INITIALIZING THIS
ACTIVITY...UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICK IT MIXES OUT OR HOW FAR IT ADVECTS
WEST WILL LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WHERE STRATUS MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRENDED HIGHS LOWER EAST OF THE KTA
WHERE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S. FURTHER
WEST...WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR MORE PROLONGED INSOLATION/BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 50S. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
WITHIN DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM AND WITH THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS...MILD LOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH VALUES REMAINING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY WHILE THE MORE ROBUST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/MUCAPE IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MID POPS SAT AFTERNOON
WHILE HIGHER PROBABILITIES SHOULD ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
AREA REACHING THE FLINT HILLS AREA BY AROUND 12Z SAT. THIS SHOULD
BRING A RAPID DEMISE TO ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WHILE WESTERLY
WINDS WITHIN THE DRY SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR KRSL TO THE MID 60S OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ANY PRECIPITATION ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS MAY IMPACT FORECAST HIGHS
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF
THE WEEKEND STORM BUT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA REMAINS
WITHIN A LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH...MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 40S MON-TUE. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO RETURN TOWARD MIDWEEK AND THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE
50S. ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A SURGE OF
CANADIAN AIR LATER IN THE WEEK BUT TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND
RELUCTANT TO LOWER HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED VALUES IN THE 50S.

MCGUIRE
&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF KS OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
FRIDAY...AS A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WEDGES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WESTERN
EXTENT OF LOW CIGS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT PER LATEST HRRR AND
RUC...THINKING WESTERN EXTENT SHOULD SET UP ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY KRSL-KHUT-KICT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
LOW MVFR...ALTHOUGH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN
FRINGE (KRSL-KHUT-KICT) WHERE UPSLOPE AND DIURNAL COOLING
ENHANCEMENTS ARE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...COULD BE LOOKING AT
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
KRSL-KHUT-KICT. THINKING CIGS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO CLEAR FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE TIMELY
AMENDMENTS WHEN/WHERE NECESSARY.

ADK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 52 36 53 47 / 0 0 40 60
HUTCHINSON 52 35 52 44 / 0 0 40 60
NEWTON 50 35 52 47 / 0 0 40 60
ELDORADO 50 35 52 49 / 0 0 40 60
WINFIELD-KWLD 53 34 53 50 / 0 0 40 60
RUSSELL 54 34 51 37 / 0 0 30 60
GREAT BEND 55 37 51 37 / 0 0 30 50
SALINA 49 36 54 43 / 0 0 30 60
MCPHERSON 51 37 52 44 / 0 0 30 60
COFFEYVILLE 47 31 55 49 / 0 0 40 70
CHANUTE 48 30 55 48 / 0 0 40 70
IOLA 47 30 55 47 / 0 0 30 70
PARSONS-KPPF 47 31 54 49 / 0 0 40 70

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1144 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

ADK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TREK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS. THINK
THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR MODELS HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND BRING THE LOW CLOUDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
I-135/HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDORS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS/FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS. STILL THINKING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS OVERNIGHT.

ADK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

UPDATE...

SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE NOT HELPFUL THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT REGARDING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS. CURRENT SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST KS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THINK LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS...ALONG/EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...THINKING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS...DUE TO
SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AMIDST A NEWLY WET GROUND. BEST
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WHERE LAST NIGHT`S RAINS WERE MOST
PLENTIFUL. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT PATCHY/SHALLOW
GROUND FOG FOR MAINLY LOW-LYING AREAS. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING...SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS/WALKWAYS COULD
DEVELOP IN FOGGY AREAS.

ADK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

FAIRLY QUIET VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEWLY WET GROUND. SINCE IT`LL LIKELY BE
SHALLOW AND PATCHY...PLAYED THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR NOW AND
ONLY WENT WITH 4SM BR ALL TAF SITES FROM ABOUT 11-15Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

ADK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-FRI:
INITIAL CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING GROUND FOG LATER TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION AXIS FROM ROUGHLY GBD TO
WEST OF EMP. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RADIATE INTO THE 20S IN THIS AREA. MODELS DO SHOW VERY DRY AIR
JUST OF THE DECK...SO NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING WIDESPREAD/DENSE AT
THIS TIME. THE MOIST GROUND MAY LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ON FRI...BUT ANTICIPATING 50S AREA WIDE.

FRI NIGHT-SUN:
ONE MORE COOL NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS RETURN FLOW APPEARS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP. BEST RETURN FLOW/MOISTURE WILL BE ON
SAT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS/CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING DAY.
AS TSA HINTED...RELATIVELY DRY AIR SAT AFTERNOON COULD CAUSE FAIR
AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING IF RAIN COMMENCES DURING THE DAY. BY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE
40S/50S...WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
UPPED MINIMUMS SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH MOST OF THE COLD AIR ONLY
REACHING CENTRAL KS BY DAYBREAK. LARGE DRY SLOT WILL BRING ABRUPT
END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUN MORNING. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...
BELIEVE EVEN CENTRAL KS WILL ESCAPE THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT.

MON-THU:
ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...AND GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THIS AS WELL. BOTH SUGGEST
TRAILING ENERGY IN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW ON COLD FRONT. WITH NEWER RUNS SHOWING FRONT GOING EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH...SO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BOTH GFS/ECMWF 925 MILLIBAR MIXDOWN TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES END UP WELL INTO THE 50S.
-HOWERTON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE EXIT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION HAS
ENDED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU AS OF 18Z. SKIES HAVE EITHER
CLEARED OR ARE CLEARING. HOWEVER...AT KCNU MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. VFR WILL
RETURN TO KCNU THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND EVENTUALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND THE AMOUNT MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAKES
GROUND FOG A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. HAVE
TRENDED THAT WAY WITH 4SM AND SCATTERED 1000FT CEILINGS. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS AND EDIT WITH LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 28 53 35 52 / 0 0 0 40
HUTCHINSON 26 53 34 51 / 0 0 0 40
NEWTON 28 51 32 51 / 0 0 0 40
ELDORADO 28 52 33 51 / 0 0 0 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 29 53 35 52 / 0 0 0 40
RUSSELL 24 54 34 50 / 0 0 0 30
GREAT BEND 24 52 35 50 / 0 0 0 30
SALINA 26 51 34 53 / 0 0 0 30
MCPHERSON 26 52 34 51 / 0 0 0 30
COFFEYVILLE 30 53 35 54 / 0 0 0 40
CHANUTE 28 51 33 54 / 0 0 0 40
IOLA 28 50 33 54 / 0 0 0 30
PARSONS-KPPF 28 52 33 53 / 0 0 0 40

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1120 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.

WOLTERS

ACH

GARGAN

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1042 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...

ADK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

UPDATE...

ADK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

ADK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

BILLINGS

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

305 AM EST FRI FEB 08 2013

.Short Term (Today - Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2013

Surface low pressure now is over northern Ohio, with a trailing cold
front close to the Ohio River. Area of light to moderate rain
showers extends around this front. Water vapor imagery depicts two
separate troughs, one passing by to our north and another over the
Mid Atlantic coast. The merger of these two systems is forecast to
bring a major winter storm over the Northeast.

Our weather will be decidely quieter. After the rains clear the
east forecast area by mid morning, northwest winds behind the front
will mean much cooler temperatures than yesterday. Highs likely will
come this morning and remain steady through the day, with values
20-25 degrees cooler than yesterday. Cloud cover will linger in the
wake of the front, as seen by upstream clouds across Il/IA/MO. High
pressure will build into the Midwest tonight, bringing lighter winds
overnight. Those clouds should start breaking up this evening. Thus
not looking at ideal cooling conditions, but readings should fall to
near normal. The surface high Saturday will shift to around Lake
Erie, which will mean a start to easterly winds over us. Under
mostly sunny skies, we likely will see high temperatures in the 40s,
even up to around 50 across south central Kentucky.

.Long Term (Saturday Night - Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2013

An upper low is still on track to eject out of the Desert Southwest
late Saturday, traverse the upper Mississippi Valley, and move over
the upper Great Lakes by Monday afternoon. This upper low and
associated surface reflection will strengthen along the way and
become vertically stacked by Sunday night. Ahead of this system,
broad southwesterly flow will supply unseasonably warm and moist
conditions Sunday into Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday in the low to
upper 50s are expected, with cloud cover and eventually precip
helping keep us from reaching full warming potential. Soundings
continue to indicate precipitable water values will be slightly
above one inch, or around +2 standard deviations for this time of
year.

So, precipitation chances will increase through the day Sunday as
the low pressure system pushes east and the associated cold front
approaches the Ohio Valley. A few showers Sunday morning are not out
of the question mainly west of the I-65 corridor as a warm front
lifts north. However, the greatest chance of area-wide showers and
embedded storms will be later in the afternoon and evening. Precip
will begin to diminish from west to east by midnight Monday morning.
The GFS has been slowly backing down on the wind speeds at 925 and
850 hPa over the last few days, while the ECMWF has increased a few
knots. Believe 45-55 knots will be common wind speeds for the
low-level jet. The anticipated cloud cover Sunday appears to limit
overall instability and soundings continue to advertise a stout cap.
Additionally, the abnormally high atmospheric moisture will limit
instability, with precip-efficient convection becoming more notable.
Still not overly impressed with this system, and some guidance is
showing better organized convection well to our south (associated
with better instability) and another area to our north (associated
with better dynamics). Currently it appears we will have showers and
some thunderstorms with gusty winds that will put down moderate to
perhaps heavy rain at times.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the departing system
Monday, with more seasonable temperatures and dry conditions
expected through at least Tuesday with the frontal boundary
positioned across the deep south. The final upper low across the
Desert Southwest will eject eastward Tuesday. Models seem to be
coming into better agreement (though the GFS has been flip-flopping
as of late) that the main forcing associated with this trough will
remain south of the forecast area, keeping active weather across the
southern states. This is forecast to be a positively tilted trough,
which provides further confidence that substantial moisture will not
be pulled northward into our area. So, will go with a dry forecast
for Tuesday night through Thursday. Surface winds will be
west-northwesterly, with high temperatures in the 40s and overnight
lows ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s.

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2013

A cold front is approaching the terminals early this morning, and
will bring some light rain showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder
to KBWG, but not high enough risk to put in TAFs. The winds will
veer ahead of the front, then become westnorthwesterly quickly as
the front moves through. Upstream obs behind this front indicate IFR
cigs are pretty likely an hour or two behind it. High-res RAP model
indicates low cigs will stick around for awhile behind this front.
Have kept IFR conditions through the morning for each site before
going up to the MVFR range in the afternoon.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1142 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

THE WARM PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRO WILL COOL FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S/NR 60
EARLY...BACK TO THE MORE FEBRUARY LIKE 40S BY MID WEEK. LOWS WILL
RESPOND IN KIND...RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMS BY THEN AS WELL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PREVAIL. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO
CLEAR ON FRIDAY...WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTERNOON.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RJP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1203 AM EST FRI FEB 08 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Tonight - Friday night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2013

Low pressure near St Louis this evening will quickly move to
Cleveland by morning. As it moves by it will swing its cold front
through southern Indiana and central Kentucky overnight. A band of
showers will accompany the front, dropping about a quarter of an
inch of rain. A rumble of thunder isn`t entirely out of the
question in the Bowling Green region.

Temperatures tonight will likely drop into the middle and upper 30s
behind the front over southern Indiana and stay in the lower 40s
across much of Kentucky. Deep moisture and lift will be exiting as
the colder air comes in so we will keep all precipitation as liquid.

Friday will be noticeably different from today. As the front moves
well off to the east light rain and drizzle will taper off by mid
morning. Low clouds will likely hang tough through at least the
morning hours before beginning to break up in the afternoon.
Temperatures will be in the 40s with brisk northwest winds gusting
to around 20 mph.

Friday night high pressure will ridge in from the northwest, calming
our winds and clearing our skies. Temperatures will fall well into
the 20s.

.Long Term (Saturday - Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2013

The long term will start out with light winds and mostly clear skies
with surface high pressure across the region. Temperatures will rise
into the mid 40s to upper 50s through the afternoon.

The latter half of the weekend, however, will feature more unsettled
weather. A low pressure system will track from Colorado on Saturday
afternoon to Wisconsin by Monday morning and then across the Great
Lakes region. A warm front associated with this system will move
north across the area Sunday morning. This may bring a few showers
to far southern and western portions of the forecast area.

The bulk of the precipitation, however will be Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night as the cold front approaches. The models still show
winds at 925 mb around 50-60 knots. As mentioned in the previous
forecast discussion, though, instability will be lacking with this
system. There will be a cap in place as temperatures a few thousand
feet off the surface show warming. Also, precipitable water values
will be rising to over an inch, so rain could be moderate to heavy
at times. Right now it looks like we will have showers with a chance
for some thunderstorms with gusty winds.

The rain will move out late Sunday night into Monday morning before
tapering off. The cold front will move through on Monday with colder
air filtering in late in the day. Temperatures still look like they
will top out in the 50s before they begin to fall into the 30s
Monday night. The models do still diverge on Tuesday night with the
GFS developing a low pressure system that tracks just to the south
of the forecast area. This would spread a mix of rain/snow to the
region. However, the ECMWF continues to keep everything further to
the south with dry conditions expected. Will continue to trend the
forecast drier, but hang on to slight chance pops Tuesday
night/Wednesday.

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2013

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Short Term.......13
Long Term........EER
Aviation.........RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1156 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS CNTRL KY AS FCST. LOWER CEILINGS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. UPDATED GRIDS WITH CURRENT OBS...
ZONES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CNTRL KY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
EAST LATE TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...CIGS WILL CRASH QUICKLY
WITH UPSTREAM OBS INDICATING CIGS AS LOW AS 400-600 FEET. THUS...THIS
WILL ESSENTIALLY SHUT DOWN AIRPORTS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY...LIFTING
TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL CLEAR OUT. PLENTY OF STRATUS EXTENDS WELL BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER IOWA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. IF THIS CONTINUES TO
FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND HISTORICALLY A NORTHWEST FLOW TRAPS
MOISTURE IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW...THEN THE POTENTIAL CLEARING WILL BE VERY
QUESTIONABLE. THUS...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CIG FORECAST AFTER
18Z TOMORROW.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DUSTY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1150 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DUSTY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1151 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
GENERAL VSBYS BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 1 1/2SM WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW
PRODUCING 1/4SM DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AFTER
09Z OR SO...SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER. KYIP/KDTW/KDET MAY STILL
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRAPLSN MIX AS THE FORECAST BEGINS @ 06Z.
CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR IN HEAVIEST SNOW BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
ON FRIDAY IN LIGHTER SNOW AND THEN SCATTERING OUT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WORKS INTO AREA IN WAKE OF STORM
SYSTEM.

FOR DTW...A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
MORE THAN LIKELY BRING A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION EARLY IN
THE FORECAST WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF -FZRA/PL MIXED IN WITH JUST LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS DRY SLOT
LIMITS DEPTH OF MOISTURE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS 5000 FEET OR LOWER THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
EVENING.

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VISIBILITIES AT 1/2 MILE IN SNOW FROM 06Z
TO 08Z.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW STARTING OFF MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 854 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST IS IN REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE AS MID LEVEL FGEN COINCIDING
WITH WARNING AREA HAS STEADILY STRENGTHENED DURING THE EVENING WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE PROVIDING A STEADY EXPANSION OF SNOW SINCE
23Z-00Z OR SO. JUST LOWERED INITIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY AS
WEDGE OF DRY AIR EVIDENT ON KDTX 00Z SOUNDING CENTERED AROUND 800 MB
DELAYED ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW BY A FEW HOURS. STILL...TOTALS WILL
BE CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN MANY AREAS AS SNOW CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT...FIRST ALONG THE H7 FRONT AND THEN AS DEFORMATION DRAGS
EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. LOCAL POCKETS OF 8 INCHES
STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE THUMB BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL RATES OCCUR AS NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP OFF OF
LAKE HURON.

FURTHER SOUTH...AN ABRUPT START TO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...GENERALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DECENT RETURNS ON KDTX
88D HAVE STEADILY WORKED DOWN FROM AROUND 8KFT TO 4KFT OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE FINAL 4KFT EXPECTED TO SATURATE EVEN
FASTER AS HEAVY BURST OF PRECIPITATION...NOW OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WORKS INTO THE AREA.

INITIAL OBSERVATIONS WITH THIS POCKET OF HEAVIER SNOW BASICALLY
SUPPORT MODEL CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.1+"/HR OR NEAR
ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST THIS
BURST WILL LAST 3 TO MAYBE 4 HOURS...SUPPORTING THE 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW FORECAST IN THAT TIME FRAME. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THE TRANSITION LINE BETWEEN SNOW AND A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
MIX WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO I-94...SO OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS FROM THE SOUTHERN METRO DETROIT AREA SOUTH...GENERALLY
1 TO 3 INCHES.

WHILE INTENSITY DOES DIMINISH AFTER 4 AM...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS DEFORMATION ZONE TRAVERSES MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
DRY SLOT ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS LIFT MAINLY AFFECTING
AREAS SOUTH OF I96...FURTHER LIMITING OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 330 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE 20S MOST OF THE DAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODEST COLD ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ053...UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ049-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ063...UNTIL NOON
FRIDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-
MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.

LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR
BEACH...UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.

AVIATION.....DG
UPDATE.......DG
SHORT TERM...MANN
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1055 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 232 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
PRIMARY TAF CONCERN IN CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR OR
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WISCONSIN WAVE IS BEGINNING TO POKE
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. IT APPEARS THIS WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH BY 12Z FRI. KRWF AND
PERHAPS KEAU SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS THE LONGEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
KAXN ON THE EDGE OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA.
RETURN SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS OVER
WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
AT KAXN. THE REMINDER SHOULD SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...
APPEARS CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL SCATTER
LOW CLOUDS OUT AROUND 09Z AND HOLD ONTO TO THE TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG
POTENTIAL LATE. VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH PERHAPS SOME
MID CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WI...NONE.
&&

TRH/DE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1133 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE STRATUS FIELD ACROSS KANW-KONL. AS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND VEERS SOUTHWESTERLY
TOWARD MORNING...THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT AND THE CIGS SHOULD ERODE.

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR/LIFR ACROSS KANW-KONL PERSISTS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INCREASE TO 18022G32KT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
RAISED MIN TEMPS A BIT IN THE WEST AND CNTL OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST AS THE RUC AND SATELLITE SHOW
THIS BANK ADVANCING WEST TO NEAR HWY 83 BY MORNING AND THEN
RETREATING BACK EAST BY NOON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

UPDATE...

PRESUMABLY...THE STRATUS SHOULD REVERSE AND MOVE BACK EAST FRIDAY MORNING TO
AROUND KBBW-KONL BY AROUND 17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013/

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ004>010-022>027-035>037-056-057-094.

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION....CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

126 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THEN SETTLE OFFSHORE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /EARLY THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM FRI...INCREASED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST INLAND TO A LINE FROM NEAR RICHLANDS TO NEW BERN AND THE
CENTRAL PAMLICO SOUND AS RECENT WINDS HAVE AVERAGED ABOUT 10 KNOTS
HIGHER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE. LATEST RUN OF HRRR CLOSEST TO
OBSERVED VALUES...SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS AS WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF
CAPE FEAR. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN TAPER OFF CLOSER TO DAY BREAK FROM SW TO NE AS THE LOW
TRAVERSES THE REGION.

AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY DAYBREAK ACROSS EAST NC...WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY. AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OVER
LAND...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OBX. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES TONIGHT WITH TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ACROSS A BROAD
AREA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY..RAIN WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END FROM SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI MORNING...PERHAPS LINGERING TO AROUND
NOON ACROSS THE FAR NE PORTIONS. SFC LOW WILL EXIT NC WHILE
DEEPENING. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE OBX AND EASTERN
MAINLAND...THOUGH ATTM LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. TEMPS GENERALLY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL TROF. RAIN CUD START
BEFORE DAWN OVER FAR INLAND AREAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR THE
ASSOCD COLD FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AND POTENTIALLY STALL AS IT COMES
UNDER PARALLEL FLOW OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MAY LIFT BACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. WONT
BE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL
MODELS CAN BETTER RESOLVE THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
TREND BACK TO NEAR MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING MIDWEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM FRI...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
ROUGHLY 13-14Z AS LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IMPACT THE
TAF SITES. MAINTAINED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES
DUE TO STRONG/DEEPENING LOW THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AFTER
AROUND 14Z FRI. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FRI DUE TO A STRONG
SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW AND
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM FRI...LATEST SURFACE...BUOY...AND SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR
COAST...MOVING NE TOWARDS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
INCREASED WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOR ALL WATERS AS CLKN7 CONTINUES TO
REPORT 35+ KNOTS...ALONG WITH AN 0136Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS
PASS THAT INDICATED A WIDE SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS FROM NEAR
DIAMOND SHOALS SW TO WELL OFF ONSLOW BAY. SEAS ROSE RAPIDLY
EARLIER TONIGHT WITH 41109 JUST 4 MILES OFF THE BEACH NOW
REPORTING 8 FEET AND BUOY 41036 30 MILES OFF ONSLOW BAY RECENTLY
REPORTED 14 FEET. SEAS ARE ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS...THUS HAVE TAILORED NEAR TERM SEAS CLOSER TO
OBSERVED AND INCREASED BY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...RAPID DEEPENING
IS EXPECTED AND AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO GALE FORCE BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH FRI AS WELL.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING WINDS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
LEAD TO WATER LEVELS 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. NEARSHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT
BUT BREAKING WAVES AND WAVE RUNUP WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SURF AND
POSSIBLE MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-158.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

1149 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REALLY STICKY SITUATION THIS EVENING WITH THE FORECAST OF A
POTENTIAL METEOROLOGICAL MESS IN STORE.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH SOME POSSIBLE BRIEF FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

A SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WAS OVER THE TOL AND FDY AREAS AT
MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE OHIO AND PA BORDER
BEFORE DAYBREAK. MOST AREAS WILL JUST HAVE RAIN...TOL AND NW PA
ARE THE EXCEPTIONS...IT WILL BE A MIX. A FLOW OFF THE LAKE COULD
KEEP TOL FREEZING RAIN FOR A BIT BEFORE THE WIND SHIFT. A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT ERI SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN LOW.
A DRY SLOT WILL OCCUR FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO OVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.
IT IS POSSIBLE IN THIS TRANSITION THAT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET OR EVEN A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR. THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN IS LOW AT MOST TAF SITES...SO WILL NOT MENTION IT.
CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN WILL BE A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR AND THEN
WHEN THE SNOW BEGIN MAINLY IFR. THE BULK OF THE SNOW MAY BE MORE
OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO LATE.

MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN SOME OF THE TAFS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAINLY EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME NON-VFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ003-
006>008.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

1015 PM PST Thu Feb 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening frontal system will bring a mix of rain and snow to
the Inland Northwest. The best chance for accumulating snow will
be above 2500 feet tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build
back into the region over the weekend and bring a drying trend,
but also a good chance for fog and low clouds. No big storm
systems are anticipated through early next week.

.DISCUSSION...
Evening Update: Update for this evening to increase snow amounts
for the WA and ID Palouse and portions of the lower ID Panhandle
mainly south of I-90 toward the Camas Prairie.

A persistent deformation axis on the northwestern quadrant of a
700mb vort max that is crossing from NE Oregon...N/NE toward the
Camas Prairie has resulted in several hours of light to moderate
pcpn across the WA/ID Palouse...Blue Mtns...Camas Prairie...and
Central Panhandle Mtns which is mainly in the form of snow above
2300 feet and rain/snow below. Additionally...steepening lapse
rates under a -31C 500mb cold pool and midlevel convergence due to
NW flow wrapping in from the backside of the low has resulted in
an enhanced band of pcpn from Pullman toward the Spokane Area.

Snowfall amounts so far in Pullman have been around 3/4 to one
inch and the potential exist for at least another inch with this
wave before weakening overnight. The light snow accumulations will
also be found across a majority of the Idaho Panhandle south of
I-90 to the Camas Prairie with snow levels generally around 2300
feet and this is confirmed by numerous CAMS along state highway
2...6...and US 95. Models are not handling the westward extent of
the pcpn exceptionally well and we generally referenced the
HRRR/Satellite/Radar for the evening update. This wave is
disconnected from the main jet stream axis which explains its slow
movement but should also support the NAM/GFS solutions of
weakening over the next few hours.

What is a concern is a second wave upstream wave tracking into Ern
Oregon in which no models are handling well. The main low is
expected to continue to sag into California and pull this wave
south with it but given the performance of tonight`s wave, it is
not a sure bet and we increased pops across the southeast through
the remainder of the night. /sb

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light to locally moderate pcpn across SE WA and the lower
ID Panhandle will weaken overnight but be slow fully clearout
until aft 12z per local HRRR guidance. Incr BL moisture frm the
pcpn event will lead to low fcst fg/stratus betwn KGEG-KLWS.
Confidence low due to poor model guidance of current pcpn
and dvlpng drier nrly flow. KLWS/KPUW will carry the highest
threat for cig/vis restrictions given the high pcpn amts that
have already fallen this evening. Otherwise...all sites should see
improving conditions aft 19z and achieve VFR status by the aftn hrs
of Friday. /sb

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 27 36 23 35 22 34 / 100 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 28 36 24 35 20 35 / 90 10 0 10 0 0
Pullman 28 36 25 36 25 37 / 100 20 0 10 10 0
Lewiston 31 44 30 44 29 43 / 100 40 0 10 10 0
Colville 27 39 23 39 23 38 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 27 36 25 35 23 35 / 50 10 0 10 0 0
Kellogg 28 38 24 37 23 39 / 100 40 0 20 10 0
Moses Lake 24 40 25 39 25 39 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 25 38 25 37 26 37 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 19 33 21 32 22 31 / 10 10 0 0 0 0

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

412 AM PST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:12 AM PST FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE AT THIS HOUR...MAINLY FROM THE GOLDEN
GATE SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTH BAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND
THEN MORE OR LESS END FOR THE BAY AREA BY MIDDAY. SHOWER THREAT
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY FOR THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTY. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND HRRR ARE
DEPICTING CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY QUITE WELL WHILE THE NAM
INITIALIZED TOO DRY BUT HAS THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW CORRECT.
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A SHOWERY REGIME RAIN TOTALS HAVE BEEN
VARIED WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AND IN EXCESS
OF 0.50 FOR SOME OF THE COASTAL HILLS. OTHER ITEM TO CONSIDER
WILL BE SNOW LEVELS WITH OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATING TEMPS IN
THE HILLS AT OR BELOW FREEZING DOWN TO AROUND 2000 FEET. SNOW
FLAKES AS LOW AS 1500 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
THIS MORNING...ANY ACCUMULATION OF NOTE WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES MOST LIKELY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY.

BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ANY SHOWER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY...AND MAINLY OVER THE HILLS WHILE
THE BAY AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT WITH COOL AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE HILLS AND JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING TOO COLD...SO ONLY EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME COLD TEMPS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS ALOFT SLIGHTLY LIGHTER. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING TO SEE COLD TEMPS LIKE WE SAW EARLIER IN JANUARY.
THERE WILL BE A CHILL IN THE AIR BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS
FAIRLY WELL MIXED WITH ONLY PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PLEASANT MID-WINTER WEATHER...ALTHOUGH MORE
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS REALLY NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 PM PST THURSDAY...A COLD UPPER TROUGH WAS
SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KSFO AND KOAK SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR DURING
SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BRIEFLY TO VFR IN BETWEEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ENTIRELY SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WSW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOME WESTERLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND INCREASING BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

536 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...EXTENDED STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z
DVN AND OAX SOUNDINGS HAD DEEP SATURATION THROUGH 100 MB IN THE
STRATUS DECK. NONE OF THE MODELS REALLY HANDLED THIS WELL. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THE LACK OF DRY ADVECTION IN THIS LAYER...NOT
SURE IF THE STRATUS WILL BREAK TONIGHT. THEREFORE...UPPED SKY COVER
SOME. WILL EVALUATE MORE THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS REGARDING THE PESKY
STRATUS DECK AND TEMPS TODAY. NOT ANTICIPATING THE CURRENT STRATUS
SHIELD TO BUDGE MUCH TODAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN/NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING
THE FORECAST IN WITHIN THE CAA. WINDS LOOK TO RELAX LATE THIS
MORNING BUT INVERSION WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING SLIGHTLY. THE LATEST HRRR (06Z RUN) KEEPS CLOUD COVER
THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z AND THE WRF SIMULATED GOES-R DEPICTING STRATUS
TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. THE
925MB RH REMAINS AOA 80 PERCENT THROUGH 21Z BEFORE DECREASING. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENT
STRATUS DECK AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS WAS STILL AT OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN THE MEAN TIME...FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TONIGHT
BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY
INTO SAT NIGHT HOWEVER. WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
STARTING WITH WEAKER BANDS DURING THE EVENING WHICH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A MORE ROBUST AREA OF PRECIP AS DEEP AND IMPRESSIVE
THERMODYNAMIC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATIC FORCING EVENTUALLY
PHASE. ALTHOUGH TRANSIENT DUE TO THE RELATIVELY FAST
MOVEMENT...MODEL 290-300K ISENT LAYERS SHOW THIS SENSIBLE WEATHER
QUITE WELL AND SUGGEST DECENT PRECIP RATES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOTED IN THIS LAYER.
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
MIDDAY. MODEL SURFACE AND WARM LAYER TEMPS ALOFT STILL SUGGEST
PRECIP TYPE WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH...BUT BEGIN AS
MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN NE QUARTER BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL
RAIN BY 15Z SUN. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY TENTH OF AN INCH ACCUMS OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN IN THE FAR NRN/NERN FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES. TOKEN MUCAPES AND
ELEVATED K INDICES ALSO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER POTENTIAL EARLY
SUN MORNING SO KEPT THUNDER CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

ANY SIGNIFICANT UVM WILL HAVE DEPARTED ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MON BUT WEAK LIFT AND LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES TRANSITIONING TO SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. MAIN STORY BY THIS TIME MAY BE WIND RATHER THAN PRECIP
HOWEVER. NAM AND GFS BOTH DEPICT 500M MIXED LAYER IN COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS NRN IA MON MORNING...BUT GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE. GFS
SUGGESTS G50 MPH POSSIBLE...NAM IN THE LOWER 30S AND THE ECMWF
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. NOT GOING TOWARD THE HIGH END QUITE YET...BUT
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. ONLY CONCERN IN LATTER PERIODS WILL BE
PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN AROUND THU. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS
DIFFERENT...ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN GFS...BOTH MODELS ARE MORE
ACTIVE IN NW FLOW THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN AND BRING A SHORT WAVE
THROUGH AROUND THAT TIME WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW.

.AVIATION...08/12Z
EXPECTING STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD AND
BEGINS TO LIFT PAST 18Z TODAY. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MVFR CIGS TO
PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAD MORE CONFIDENCE IN LIFTING THE
MVFR CIGS PAST 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY
THEN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY TONIGHT.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

404 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS REGARDING THE PESKY STRATUS DECK AND TEMPS
TODAY. NOT ANTICIPATING THE CURRENT STRATUS SHIELD TO BUDGE MUCH
TODAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING THE FORECAST IN WITHIN
THE CAA. WINDS LOOK TO RELAX LATE THIS MORNING BUT INVERSION WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z BEFORE DISSIPATING SLIGHTLY. THE
LATEST HRRR (06Z RUN) KEEPS CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z AND THE
WRF SIMULATED GOES-R DEPICTING STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. THE 925MB RH REMAINS AOA
80 PERCENT THROUGH 21Z BEFORE DECREASING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK AND
LOWERED MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS WAS STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

.AVIATION...08/06Z
STRATUS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER FRIDAY ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CLOUD DECK TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
UNCERTAINTIES SURROUND VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE INTO MID FRIDAY MORNING.
A FEW MODELS TRYING TO SEND NORTHERN TAF SITES AND KOTM DOWN TO
LIFR/IFR VSBYS RANGE. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...SO HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED WITH SOME REDUCTION TO MVFR RANGE FOR NOW AND WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS CERTAINTY WILL BECOME
MORE APPARENT.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...MJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

911 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

THE 08.12Z 250 HPA RAOB SYNOPTIC MAP SHOWED A CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. ANOTHER JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. FINALLY, THE STRONGEST JET (130 KT) WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. AT 500 HPA, A 540 DM CYCLONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR KSFO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
A FEW MORE TROFS WERE LOCATED FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. AT 700 HPA, A VERY
DRY AND A BIT WARMER AIRMASS HAS SPREAD OVER WESTERN WESTERN KANSAS.
COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE WAS LOCATED FARTHER
WEST WITH VALUES LESS THAN -10 DEG C. AT 850 HPA, THERE WAS WARM AIR
ADVECTION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. A FEW MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WERE
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PLAINS TODAY AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING ONE DUE TO IT BEING A LOW
END EVENT AT BEST. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
MID CLOUDS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

THE 00Z FRIDAY GFS AND NAM REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS IN DEEPENING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DRAW MORE HUMID AIR IN THE SURFACE-850MB
LEVEL ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY AS A DRYLINE
DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING DOES
SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND 1KM DEEP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE IMPROVING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME 925-850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEING POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON CURRENTLY APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE, LOCATION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET, 0-6KM SHEAR GREATER THAN +50KTS AND MUCAPE CAPES
OF 500J/KG OR LESS.

850MB WINDS AT 18Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
40KTS. MIXED LAYER WINDS FROM THE NAM AND GFS AT 18Z SATURDAY AND
00Z SUNDAY RANGE FROM 30 TO 35KTS. SURFACE WINDS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE
WHERE A DEEPER MIXING DEPTH IS ANTICIPATED. DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE
DRYLINE STILL FORECAST TO FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER GIVEN THE FURTHER WEST PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE
IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THESE LOW DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF
THE COLORADO BORDER. STILL ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IN HAMILTON, STANTON AND MORTON COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED SO DESPITE CLEARING SKIES, COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND
LOWER DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO WESTERN KANSAS WILL FAVOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE 00Z GUIDANCE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MODEL SOUNDINGS, 850MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ALONG INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEING ONLY IN THE 40S. THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
EARLY NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S MID WEEK AS
MID LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEGINS
TO IMPROVE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

BOTH THE 06Z NAM AND 08Z HRRR WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO NEAR HAYS BY 12Z WHERE IT WILL THEN BECOME
STATIONARY THROUGH 15Z. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WIDESPREAD STATUS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WAS OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. BOTH MODELS KEEPS THIS STATUS AND FOG EAST OF HAYS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER GIVEN HOW CLOSE THIS
STATUS WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INSERT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIFR CLOUDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. AFTER 15Z THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
AT LESS THAN 10KTS AT 12Z ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KTS BY AROUND 18Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THESE GUSTY
WINDS...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK
INTO 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HAMILTON, STANTON, AND MORTON COUNTIES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 35 54 35 / 0 0 30 40
GCK 56 35 55 32 / 0 0 30 30
EHA 57 32 59 32 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 57 34 57 32 / 0 0 20 30
HYS 55 35 53 35 / 0 0 30 60
P28 56 38 51 42 / 0 0 40 60

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

525 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.AVIATION...

THIN LAYER OF PRIMARILY MVFR STRATUS COVERS NORTHEAST KANSAS..SOME
IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL IN THE MHK TERMINAL BEFORE RISING BACK TO
MVFR LEVELS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER IS SHALLOW AND WITH SOME
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO BREAK UP WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 21Z. WINDS WILL VEER FROMT HE NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAP MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOING
THE BEST JOB OF DEPICTING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

521 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

TEMPERATURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S MID WEEK AS
MID LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEGINS
TO IMPROVE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

510 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN HAZARDS: LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

STRATUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HRRR 3KM AND RUC13 SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES
OF THIS STRATUS SHIELD...AFFECTING RSL...SLN...HUT...AND ICT. CNU
SHOULD STAY MAINLY AT LOW END OF MVFR RANGE. DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO ERODE MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE CNU CLEARING THE LAST ~21Z.

JMC

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MCGUIRE

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

616 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL TONIGHT/...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO ADD THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE PITTSBURGH METRO AND NORTHWARD.

THE LATEST RAP SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A 1008MB LOW CENTERED
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS FEATURE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. ALONG THE FRONT...RAIN SHOWERS ARE
PUSHING INTO EASTERN OHIO. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS CURRENTLY IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH SFC TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG FRANKLIN-DUBOIS LINE TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOME ROAD SENSORS ARE BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE PIT METRO AND NORTHWARD.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...BRINGING MOSTLY RAIN THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN...AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. BASED ON RECENT SURFACE OBS
ALONG WITH LAMP/HRRR TEMP GUIDANCE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE ARE IN THE FORECAST THERE. THERE IS STILL MORE UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW ROAD SURFACES WILL RESPONSE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
SOME ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS
FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE PIT METRO AND NORTHWARD.

SURFACE WAA SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO MOSTLY CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE MORNING UNTIL CAA KICKS BACK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG CAA WILL ENSUE WITH TEMPS FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. WITH LITTLE PRECIP
ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES THERE.

HI-RES NMM/ARW MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AN
UPSLOPING EVENT BEGINNING THIS EVENING FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND ALLEGHENY FRONT OF WV/PA/MD. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN PA AND 3 TO 6 IN WV/MD. IN ADDITION...WINDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE
RIDGES AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP THIS EVENING
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE HIGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND CROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE PULLED EAST OF THE RIDGES BY
15Z SATURDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGING AN END
TO UPSLOPING. THEREAFTER...A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS RESPONDING FAIRLY QUICKLY DESPITE A NORTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. FOR TEMPS SATURDAY...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE WARMER MAV...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE I-80
CORRIDOR TO THE MID 30S IN NORTH-CENTRAL WV AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OHIO. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING JUST EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
ALTHOUGH ONE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE HIGH CIRRUS SLIDING INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HAVE FAVORED MORE RADITIONAL COOLING EAST OF PITTSBURGH FOR LOWS SAT
NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH TO THE MID 20S IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE BECOMING
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND WAA WILL BE ENHANCED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS SUNDAY FAVOR THE WARMER ECMWF...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN RIDGES TO
THE UPPER 40S IN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS LOW PRES DVLPS TWD THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NGT.

HIGH AMPLITUDE CNTRL CONUS TROF IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EWD AS MID
WEEK APPROACHES...HENCE TEMPS SHOULD FADE BACK TWD THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HOWEVER...POPS WL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF SHRTWVS
MOVING THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ON THE ERN FLANK OF THAT TROF. HAVE
THUS FORECASTED LATE TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY POPS NR CHC CLIMO NMBRS
FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LBE...
MGW AND DUJ...WHERE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD BRING GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. COLD FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FKL AND DUJ WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN. AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS FRONT BRINGS IN
COLDER AIR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO THE NORTH AT FKL/DUJ AND ALONG HIGHER ELEVATION AT
LBE/MGW.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRES BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY.
RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ008-009-
015-016.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

552 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013
(TODAY)

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. MAX
TEMPS ARE THE FCST CHALLENGE TODAY. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...WITH
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO THE AFTN. THEREFORE
HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD...DEPENDING ON WHAT THE CLOUDS ACTUALLY DO...THAT MAY OR
MAY NOT BE A SMART MOVE. IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP PRIOR TO
NOON...THEN HIGHS ARE NOW PROBABLY TOO COOL...BUT IF THEY HANG
TOUGH THROUGH THE AFTN...THEN I/M PROBABLY STILL TOO WARM. AREA
SHOULD REMAIN IN CAA THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS NOT
CROSSING THE CWA UNTIL THIS EVENING. LOCAL CLIMO SUGGESTS THAT
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY TODAY. IN THIS INSTANCE...THAT
SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE AS 850 AND 925 TEMPS ACTUALLY RISE DURING
THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THIS MORNINGS
TEMPS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

BY SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP
AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. NOT A LOT OF
INSTABILITY...SO JUST HAVE SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR NOW. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WITH MAIN COLD
FRONT AS IT SLIDES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
DECENT SHEAR/HELICITY AND DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS BEST INSTABILITIES AND MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.

PCPN TO SHUT OFF PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN
THE 30S.

BEYOND THAT...KEPT EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS MODELS KEEP NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THUS PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA MID WEEK.
OTHERWISE...COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING
INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...THEN MODERATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS BY THURSDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

BYRD

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

A SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST THIS EVENING PUTTING THE AREA IN SE
RETURN FLOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS HAVE SLOWLY RAISED ALL
NIGHT WITH CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS AOA 1KFT. THE MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING WHEN AND IF THE STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE STRATUS BREAKING UP LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTN. I THINK THIS MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF STRATUS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE FACT THAT THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NERLY LATER TODAY IS NOT A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORABLE SET UP FOR THE DISSIPATION OF STRATUS. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RUC MODEL. CIG DISSIPATION WAS PUSHED BACK WITH
THIS PACKAGE...BUT THE TIMING MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK EVEN
FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT FCST ISSUANCES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...

MVFR CIG SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTN...THOUGH THIS TIMING MAY BE
TOO OPTIMISTIC. WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SE AS SFC HIGH SLIDES
EAST THIS EVENING.

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

546 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Today through Sunday)...

The weather will become progressively more interesting Saturday
night and Sunday. Until then the main concern will be how soon
before the stratus departs. A large area of stratus has expanded
south-southwest under a surface ridge which extends from MN through
eastern KS and northwest TX. Except for the RAP the models are doing
a poor job handling this cloud cover. Part of that is due to a lack
of depth to the cloud cover. Latest RAP soundings via Bufkit and
AvnFPS climatology suggest the stratus could very well hang around
into the afternoon hours...especially east of the surface ridge. For
now,
will side on a rapid break up this afternoon but will pass along
concerns to the day shift. Should cloudy skies linger through the
afternoon the current high temperatures will prove to be too
optimistic.

Primary attention will then focus on the deep upper trough now
moving through CA. Models are in good agreement in deepening this
system as it tracks east as a positively tilted system. The main
piece of energy is still expected to lift northeast and through the
Central Plains Saturday night and Sunday. Very strong mid/upper
level dynamics will result in large pressure falls downstream and a
deepening surface cyclone. While the wind shear parameters will be
quite strong and supportive of severe weather the key to it forming
will be the quality of low level moisture return. It currently
appears the low level moisture will be lacking by the time the
associated pre-frontal convergence zone reaches the CWA Sunday
morning. Thus the lack of sufficient instability will be a deterrent
to severe storm formation. However, the strength of the 0-6km bulk
shear will be supportive of fast moving storms which could produce
strong winds. In addition, the shear may be so strong as to shear
away the tops of any storms and thus destroy the vertical
structure/updraft.

Best bet for showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday night and
Sunday morning.

Medium Range (Monday through Friday)...

Expect mainly dry conditions with a bit of a roller coaster ride for
temperatures during the work week next week. By Monday, the system
that brings showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area Saturday
night into Sunday, will shift northeastward into the Great Lakes.
With no real cold air behind the cold front that moves through the
area Sunday, temperatures on Monday will hover near average in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. On Tuesday an upper level trough will move
through the area. Precipitation associated with this system will
remain south of the area but it will knock highs down a few degrees.
Height rises from weak upper level ridging building into the area
and downsloping westerly flow will help temperatures move above
average Wednesday. Highs will be in the 40s. Temperatures will climb
further on Thursday out ahead of the next storm system. There will
be a return to southwesterly flow allowing temperatures to rise into
the mid 40s to lower 50s. A cold front will move through the area
Thursday night however models are not in agreement on precipitation.
The GFS brings snow to the entire CWA behind the front while the EC
digs an upper level trough, associated with the aforementioned cold
front, further south with rain or snow affecting the southern CWA.
Have maintained the slight chance pops the initialization painted
across the southern CWA for Friday. One certainty is temperatures
will be cooler on Friday with strong cold air advection keeping
highs in the 30s across the CWA.

.AVIATION...

For the 12z TAF...Concerns growing that the extensive MVFR stratus
field will be slower to break up/dissipate. RAP only model which
effectively handles the current stratus. Latest RAP Bufkit progged
soundings and AvnFPS climatology suggest MVFR cigs could linger
through this afternoon. However, inspection of last nights 00z OAX
sounding revealed a very thin cloud layer so will split the
difference with the RAP and scatter out the cigs by mid afternoon.
Once these cigs are gone expect VFR conditions with east to
southeast winds.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

434 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Today through Sunday)...

Best bet for showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday night and
Sunday morning.

Medium Range (Monday through Friday)...

.AVIATION...

Biggest change to forecast is to keep MVFR conditions prevailing
through 16Z as opposed to IFR conditions. Ceilings and visibilities
upstream remain MVFR as well, and outside of a temporary period of
IFR between 09-13Z, expect primarily MVFR conditions to prevail at
TAF sites. Stratus will mix out by late morning, returning VFR
conditions.

Blair

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1034 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ALONG LAKE ERIE AND INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK...SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A WINTRY
MIX AND LOCALIZED RAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MERGE WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL LOW THAT WILL
BE MOVING NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME RECONFIGURATION TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE NEEDED THIS
MORNING. WARMER AIR FEEDING IN...ALONG WITH THE HELP OF DOWNSLOPE
FLOW HAS DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. RUC MODEL PROFILES SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION
WILL GO OVER QUICKLY TO SNOW LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE
LACK OF APPRECIABLE FREEZING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND A
GENERAL 4-6 INCH ACCUMULATION THROUGH TONIGHT HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.

FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. UPPER TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM WILL PULL IN MUCH COLDER AIR THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. SNOWFALL RATES COULD
EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FOCUSED UPON THE SOUTH SHORE LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE AN DEFORMATION BAND WILL FORM ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER THE
LONGEST SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER WHERE A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
WIND WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THE LATE
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT FURTHER EAST OF CAPE COD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE A
MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER TROF ALSO EXITS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...GETTING SHALLOWER AND LAKE INDUCED CAPE
DIMINISHES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
-12C...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH...AND
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FLURRIES OR SNIZZLE...EVEN THOUGH PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BE
CONFINED TO UPSLOPE REGIONS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
ANY ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN QUITE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH IS GOOD FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL START TO WARM WHICH WILL
LIMIT LOWS A BIT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO VARY WIDELY...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS COMMON IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOCATIONS WEST OF
ROCHESTER TO RISE INTO THE 30S AND ABOVE FREEZING...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GENERATE A LEE CYCLONE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THAT WILL TRACK TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS LARGE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST...THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FEATURE. THE AIR IN PLACE WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY COLD...AND WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO DISPLACE THIS COLD AIR AT THE ONSET. GIVEN WARMING
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...FEEL THAT AT LEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY STAY
ABOVE FREEZING. COLDER AIR IN PLACE FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY HOWEVER COULD PRESENT MORE OF A PROBLEM WITH
REGARDS TO FREEZING RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A CONSENSUS
OF QPF AMONG THE GGEM/EUROPEAN/GFS BRINGS ABOUT QUARTER INCH. WARM
AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN WILL EXIT EAST AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTERS INTO THE REGION...THOUGH
GIVEN THAT THE LOW WILL BE DEEPLY OCCLUDED...AIRMASS ADVECTION
SHOULD NOT BE THAT COLD INITIALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF -6C TO -10C WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM THE 40S MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
COLD AIR...NOT EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL PRESENT MUCH OF A
PROBLEM. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEING JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF THE LAKES.

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BE LIGHT AT THE ONSET. PRECIPITATION MAY START
AS PL/FZRA AT JHW AND POSSIBLY BUF/ROC. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE ALSO IS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL BRIEFLY
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT WILL NOT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN MODEST LLWS.

A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF VSBY BELOW
1SM...WITH PERIODS OF 1/4SM TO 1/2SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ARE ALSO LIKELY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM W-E THIS EVENING. A NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKES WILL CAUSE MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
LINGER SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY...MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED
BY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BACKING TO NORTH...AND
THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFTS CONDITIONS ON BOTH
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE ISSUED
FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL UP THE
RIVER GORGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ001>008-
010-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ044.

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...THOMAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

500 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.AVIATION...
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME ASSOCIATED PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT PNC THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHWEST
PROGRESS AS THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY APPROACH OKC/OUN
SITES AROUND 15Z. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THAT PNC MAY KEEP MFVR
CEILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY MID/LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE... ALL SITES WILL SEE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTN AND SOME MID CLOUD INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WITH
COOLER...DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING... BEFORE DISSIPATING. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A MILD DAY AS TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S
THIS AFTN WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING.

THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PULL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF STRONGER UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY... BUT BEST CHANCE WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER... BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALSO INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL
TO SOME DEGREE.

STORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MILD AND
BREEZY DAY EXPECTED. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOW AFTN
HUMIDITIES WILL ELEVATE WILDFIRE CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTN... BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

COOLER WEATHER THEN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
A FEW RAIN OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS QUICKLY SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING
STORM SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
SYSTEM. A MODEST WARM-UP IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 37 54 48 / 0 10 40 70
HOBART OK 58 36 56 41 / 0 10 40 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 39 60 48 / 0 10 40 60
GAGE OK 57 33 55 36 / 0 10 30 60
PONCA CITY OK 54 35 55 47 / 0 10 30 70
DURANT OK 60 39 59 53 / 10 10 40 80

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

710 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL MERGE INTO A DEEP COASTAL STORM LATER TODAY.
THIS STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE STORM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
RADAR AND OBS INDICATE THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WORKING NWD
INTO THE LWR SUSQ VLY HAS MADE IT TO RT30 IN LANCASTER CO. SFC
TEMPS AND LLVL WET BULBS REMAIN VERY MARGINAL AND KLNS RECENTLY
REPORTED PLAIN RAIN. THEREFORE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS AND POPS OVR THE
SERN ZONES THRU MID-MORNING. VERY COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FCST EARLY
ON TDY...BUT AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES LATER EXPECT CONDS TO GO
DOWNHILL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST RUC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
CLEVELAND OH AND CAPE HATTERAS NC. THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF
THESE SFC LOWS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LG SCALE HT FALLS AND LLVL THETA-E ADV/ISENT LIFT
AIDING IN BLOSSOMING/EXPANDING PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS NRN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD SLOWLY SHIFTING
NWWD FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HI-RES MDLS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
THIS AREA OF PCPN COULD REACH AS FAR NW AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY
MID MORNING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND S OF RT 30 WILL LKLY SEE THE PCPN
ARRIVE BY 12-13Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN MARGINAL WITH SFC-
850MB WET BULBS HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 0C.
THEREFORE EXPECT A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PTYPES OVR PTNS OF THE LWR
SUSQ VLY THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME PLAIN RAIN NEAR THE MD LINE.

WARM AIR STREAMING INTO WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AHEAD OF THE OH VLY SYS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY FREEZING RAIN OR
SNOW PTYPES...WITH SNOW THE RESULT OF WET BULB/EVAP COOLING
EFFECTS. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PCPN TO FALL THIS MORNING OVR THE
N-CENTRAL MTNS AND SRN POCONOS/ENDLESS MTN REGION N/E OF IPT.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT MAY FALL WITH THE
ONSET OF PCPN.

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
NRN STREAM SHRTWV WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PIVOTS EWD ACRS THE LWR GRT
LKS...EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A SLGT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MERGES WITH
SRN STREAM SHRTWV/JET SYSTEM ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE EC CYCLOGENESIS WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE NEW
PRIMARY COASTAL LOW EXPECTED AS IT LIFTS NEWD OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THROUGH TNT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR TRACK AND/OR TIMING DIFFS IN HANDLING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING STORM. FROM
A SFC LOW TRACK STANDPOINT..THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE AN ERN
OUTLIER AND THE NAM A WRN OUTLIER..WITH ALL OF THE NON-NCEP
GUIDANCE MORE CLOSELY CLUSTERED IN BTWN THESE "OUTLIER" SOLNS.

OVERALL DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.
BASED ON THE PROJECTED SNFL AMTS...THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES STILL LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE.

THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR SNOW WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. STG HT FALLS/LOW-MID LVL FGEN ASSOCD WITH THE NRN STREAM
WAVE WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MOD TO HVY SNOW ACRS N-CENTRAL PA
BTWN 18-00Z. COINCIDING WITH THE MERGER OF WAVES...A DEFORMATION
AXIS SHOULD SET UP OVR E-CENTRAL AND NERN PA ON THE WRN EDGE OF
INTENSE 850MB JET PIVOTING NWD ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH A FCST STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMTS ARE LKLY TO OCCUR TO
THE NORTH/EAST OF IPT...WHERE MDLS SUGGESTS THE WRAP-AROUND SNOW
AXIS MAY PERSIST INTO LATE TNT.

N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TIGHT P-GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING INTENSE LOW WILL
HELP TO CREATE A STRONG NWRLY LLVL WIND MAX. VERTICAL MIXING OF UP
TO JUST AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL EASILY TAP 35-40 KT WINDS AND
TRANSPORT THEM TO THE SFC IN FREQUENT GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA /ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA/...BUT WITH THE CURRENT FLAGS FOR SNOW BLANKETING THE REGION
TODAY...WILL DEFER THIS LESSER CONCERN TO LATER SHIFTS.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY.

TEMPS LATE SAT NIGHT COULD DIP TO NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT THE PERENNIAL
COLD SPOTS OVER THE NRN MTNS.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE...MIXING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE VERY COLD START
AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL /IN THE MID-UPPER 30S/ THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND
ERN ZONES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL ALLOW FOR MAXS REACHING THE U30S TO AROUND
40F...OR 5-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MED RANGE MDL GUIDANCE THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALL OF WHICH TRACKS NEXT LOW PRES SYS WEST AND JUST NORTH OF
PA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING...AND GIVEN THE
MARGINAL LLVL TEMP PROFILE...ANY LIGHT PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FZRA. SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICY CONDS EARLY MONDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY 14-15Z.

MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME SNOWMELT TO CAUSE SOME MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON AREA
STREAMS AND CREEKS INTO THE MIDWEEK.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NW MTNS.

MINOR HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES IN THE WAKE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
LATER IN THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY A RATHER POTENT NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
08/12Z-09/12Z...

WRN TAFS IN ZOB SECTOR ARE DOWN TO IFR...WHILE CIGS AT ERN TAFS
IN ZNY DOMAIN ARE RUNNING 1000-2000FT AGL. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
IMPROVEMENT THRU THE AM HOURS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF PCPN/TYPE TRENDS IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD THRU THE UPPER OH VLY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE CAROLINA COAST TO FORM A
MAJOR WINTER STORM OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORM WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...REACHING PEAK INTENSITY JUST EAST OF
CAPE COD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AVIATION IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM
WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW MVFR
AND IFR CIGS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE WILL BE
IN-BTWN THE TWO MERGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...THEREFORE MAKING
ONSET AND EARLY EVOLUTION OF PCPN/TYPES SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AND
CHALLENGING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND PTYPES
ARE RELATIVELY LOW...IN GENERAL EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDS TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TRIED TO SHOW TRANSITION FROM MIXED PCPN TO
ALL SNOW BY THE AFTN. IN ADDITION TO LOW VIS/CIGS AND MIXED WINTRY
PCPN...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM E/SE TO WNW AND INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE COASTAL STORM BOMBS-OUT EAST OF LONG ISLAND.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR. STRONG N-NW WINDS.
SUN...VFR NO SIG WX.
MON...AM WINTRY MIX TO RAIN. FROPA. -SHSN WEST LATE.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR -SHSN PSBL NW.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
037-041-042-046-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>036-045-049-050-056-057-059-063>066.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

617 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
LATEST RUC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
CLEVELAND OH AND CAPE HATTERAS NC. THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF
THESE SFC LOWS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LG SCALE HT FALLS AND LLVL THETA-E ADV/ISENT LIFT
AIDING IN BLOSSOMING/EXPANDING PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT MAY FALL WITH THE
ONSET OF PCPN.

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NRN STREAM SHRTWV WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PIVOTS EWD ACRS THE LWR GRT
LKS...EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A SLGT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MERGES WITH
SRN STREAM SHRTWV/JET SYSTEM ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE EC CYCLOGENESIS WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE NEW
PRIMARY COASTAL LOW EXPECTED AS IT LIFTS NEWD OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THROUGH TNT.

N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP CYCLONE.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY.

TEMPS LATE SAT NIGHT COULD DIP TO NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT THE PERENNIAL
COLD SPOTS OVER THE NRN MTNS.

MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME SNOWMELT TO CAUSE SOME MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON AREA
STREAMS AND CREEKS INTO THE MIDWEEK.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NW MTNS.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
08/06Z-09/06Z...

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY BCMG MVFR/VFR. STRONG N-NW WINDS.
SUN...VFR NO SIG WX.
MON...AM WINTRY MIX TO RAIN. FROPA. -SHSN WEST LATE.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR -SHSN PSBL NW.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

558 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 444 AM CST/
MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE STRATUS AND HOW FAST IT
DISSIPATES/ADVECTS OUT. NO MODEL EXCEPT THE RAP HAS A REAL HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS WITH NAM AND GFS ERODING STRATUS THIS MORNING WHILE RAP
KEEPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. THEREFORE...GIVEN THICKNESS
AND WIDESPREAD NATURE OF STRATUS HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAP THROUGH 21Z
AND THEN USED NAM AND GFS 925 MB WINDS TO GIVE INDICATION OF WHEN
FLOW HAS ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT TO ADVECT CLOUDS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS KEEP CLOUDS EAST OF THE JAMES ALL DAY WITH THE SW MN
AND NW IA LIKELY NOT CLEAR UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. WITH CLOUDS MOST
OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH. BASICALLY WENT
ISOTHERMAL FROM 925 MB EAST OF THE JAMES WHICH KEEPS HIGHS FROM
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES...MORE SUNSHINE
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ENHANCE MIXING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.
SO HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AROUND HON AND MHE TO UPPER 40S IN
GREGORY COUNTY.

DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY WELL MIXED TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO ONLY DROP 5
DEGREES OR SO EAST OF THE JAMES AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. WHERE
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...EXPECT THEM TO FALL TOWARD
FREEZING OVERNIGHT BUT STILL FAIRLY MILD. EXPECT TO SEE CIRRUS
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES./SCHUMACHER

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT SMALL DIFFERENCES EXIST...AND UNFORTUNATELY OUR CWA
IS SITUATED IN A LOCATION THAT ONLY SMALL SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON WEATHER CONDITIONS. NAM/SREF ARE
NORTHERN OUTLIERS AND WERE NOT NOT USED IN THIS FORECAST DUE TO
UNREALISTIC LOOKING WAVE EVOLUTION. THE MODELS CONSIDERED WERE THUS
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AND GEM. OF THIS GROUP...THE GFS IS THE FURTHEST
NORTH...THE GEM/UKMET THE FURTHEST SOUTH AND THE ECMWF IN BETWEEN.
THE 4 MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THEIR OWN SOLUTIONS. THE
GEM IS STRONGEST AND QUICKEST WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...WHICH
KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHEST SOUTH. IT IS THUS THE COLDEST
SOLUTION AND WOULD GIVE MORE AREAS SNOW. THE 0Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THEIR UPPER AIR PATTERNS...BUT DIFFER WITH REGARDS
TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE. GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH LATENT HEAT RELEASE
RELOCATING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH. WHILE THIS CAN HAPPEN...THE GFS
CAN OVERDO THIS AT TIMES. PREFERENCE AT THIS POINT IS A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...LEANING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. WHILE THE GEM
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON ITS
SOUTHERN TRACK...FEEL THAT SOLUTION IS A LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS
TIME. THIS BLEND RESULTS IN A SURFACE TRACK BETWEEN TEKAMAH NEBRASKA
AND SIOUX CITY IOWA.

HERE ARE OUR CURRENT THOUGHTS ON EVOLUTION FOLLOWING THE ABOVE
BLEND. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY AS
RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE MIXED IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY RAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH
SNOW EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD BE LIGHT. THE
TOUGHEST FORECAST COMES IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. DURING THIS
PERIOD A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIP WITH THE 850MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 90 WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL. FOR EXAMPLE...IN SIOUX FALLS THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ALL
SNOW AND SEVERAL INCHES...WHILE THE GFS WOULD BE RAIN. IT WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...DYNAMIC COOLING FROM THE
HIGH PRECIP RATES...AND A COOL NORTHEASTERLY AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW. FEEL
LIKE RAIN TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS MOST LIKELY IN THIS TIME
FRAME FOR THE SIOUX FALLS AREA...WITH THE GFS TOO WARM AND THE ECMWF
A BIT TOO COOL. AFTER 18Z EVERYONE EXCEPT NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD BE
SNOW...WITH A DECENT TROWAL SNOW BAND EXPECTED TO SETUP SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM THIS TROWAL IN THE
BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL CORRIDOR. EVENTUALLY EVEN NORTHWEST IOWA WILL
GO OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND OUR PREVIOUS WATCH AND
CHANGE IT TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REALLY INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY..WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL FALL BEFORE
WINDS REALLY PICK UP...BUT DID NOT WANT TO HAVE TWO DIFFERENT WINTER
HEADLINES GOING. SO OPTED TO GO JUST WITH A BLIZZARD WATCH COVERING
THE ENTIRE EVENT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES SEEM POSSIBLE FROM
GREGORY COUNTY TO MITCHELL TO MARSHALL AND POINTS NORTHWEST. 4 TO 8
INCHES IS THE CURRENT THOUGH FROM BON HOMME TO SIOUX FALLS TO
WINDOM. AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST
ARE HIGHER CONFIDENCE...WHILE THE 4 TO 8 ZONE IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WATCH SOUTH INTO THIS AREA...BECAUSE EVEN IF
THE SUNDAY MORNING SHOT OF PRECIP IS ALL RAIN...THE TROWAL SNOWS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS MAY STILL CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THUS
EVEN IF SOME AREAS RECEIVE LESS THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THESE HEADLINES
ARE LIKELY...BUT FEEL THE CURRENT LOCATION REPRESENTS THE AREA OF
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. KEEP IN MIND ANY SHIFTS
IN TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AND WHEN THE
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW.

THE FALLING SNOW WILL END MONDAY MORNING...BUT BLOWING AND DRIFTING
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WAS LEFT WITH ALLBLEND...SO MORE FOCUS COULD BE GIVEN TO
THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH NO REAL COLD SHOTS OR BIG WARM
UPS SEEN. A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
BACK INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY.
/CHENARD

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
BROAD AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. GFS/NAM ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AT ALL. THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE RAP...WHICH SUGGESTS STRATUS STICKS AROUND AT
OUR TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS IN THE STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 1K FEET. EVEN THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY...STRATUS DECK EXTENDS WELL SOUTHEAST OF US AND
THIS TURN OF FLOW WILL ONLY ACT TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN MORE
STRATUS. TIMING OF WHEN STRATUS EXITS IS VERY UNCERTAIN. DELAYED THE
EXIT TIME WITH THESE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE TOO EARLY AS BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW STAYS SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH MAY
MAKE IT TOUGH TO ERODE THE CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. /CHENARD
.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-097.

NE...NONE.
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR SDZ040-054>056-059>062-064-065-068.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR SDZ038-039-050-052-053-057-058-063.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

444 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-097.

NE...NONE.
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR SDZ040-054>056-059>062-064-065-068.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR SDZ038-039-050-052-053-057-058-063.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

950 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...

NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS FROM CLEARING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER CLOSER TO SUNSET....SO HAVE ADJUSTED
THE AFTERNOON SKY COVER FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

JAB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I40
CORRIDOR AT 415 AM...LIFTING EAST. GOES WATER IMAGERY SHOWED THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON TRACK TO EXIT THE MIDSOUTH LATER
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS IN
BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
MOIST LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ENSURE
MILD MINIMUM TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE GREAT BASIN UPPER
LOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE MIDSOUTH...TRACKING
NEAR THE 500MB LOW CENTER. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH WILL
BE FOCUSED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS.

WITH SUNDAY/S SYSTEM LIKELY OCCLUDED OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY...MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES... SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR...IF ANY BOWING SEGMENTS ARE ABLE TO BRING DOWN
THE 50 TO 60KT REAR INFLOW WINDS ABOVE 900MB.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL OPEN UP AND TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRAJECTORY THAN ITS
PREDECESSOR...TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE THAN
WHEN COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF...PARTICULARLY ON THE 06Z GFS RUN. IN
ANY CASE... THE DRY AIRMASS BEHIND SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT WOULD POINT
TOWARD A LOW QPF EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MS TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW DOWN TO 925MB...WITH ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS BELOW THIS LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPS UPPER 30S. HAVE INTRODUCED
A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND FLURRIES TO NORTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS
OF WEST TN EAST OF MEMPHIS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK APPEARS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL...WITH
FAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR
ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS
ARE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS BEYOND 180 HOURS...
SO DAYS 7 TO 10 HOLD LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

PWB

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO LINGERING LIFR TO MVFR CIGS. BOTH
THE GFS AND RUC HOLDS ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS LONGER THAN THE NAM. THE
RUC ACTUALLY KEEPS LOW CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOOKING AT
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS COVER THE MIDWEST TO
OHIO VALLEY. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE RUC IS SHOWING THIS IS DUE TO WINDS ALOFT THAT WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL USE LATEST MAV/LAV
GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
12Z TAFS. THUS MAKING 12Z TAFS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN 6Z TAFS BUT
NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE RUC. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY LIFR OR IFR. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE BUT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 18-22Z. N TO NE WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SPEEDS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS DIRECTION BECOMES MORE NE.

KRM

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 34 57 47 / 10 0 0 30
MKL 48 28 55 43 / 10 0 0 20
JBR 50 31 53 45 / 0 0 10 60
TUP 58 31 61 43 / 30 0 0 20

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

501 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

PWB

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

KRM

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 34 57 47 / 10 0 0 30
MKL 48 28 55 43 / 10 0 0 20
JBR 50 31 53 45 / 0 0 10 60
TUP 58 31 61 43 / 20 0 0 20

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

420 AM PST Fri Feb 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will linger through mid-morning over the central and
southern Idaho Panhandle. A drier weather pattern will arrive for
the weekend. The next storm system is expected to arrive on
Tuesday bringing an increased potential for rain and mountain
snow. Breezy conditions may also follow the passage of this storm
system Tuesday night into Wednesday.

.DISCUSSION...

Today: We will be monitoring a decaying band of rain and snow over
Spokane, Kellogg, St. Maries and Winchester this morning.
Localized accumulations of 1 to 3 inches occurred overnight over
the Palouse and portions of Shoshone county with this deformation
band. A report of 5 inches came from the Moscow area at an elevation
of 3400 feet. Snow levels have generally been in the 2000-2500 ft
range. Radar trends between 11 PM and 2 AM show an overall decrease
in the organization and intensity of the precipitation within the
deformation band. It is likely undergoing a good deal of stretching
and shearing as the upper level trough digs into central California
this morning. The 06z NAM and recent runs of the HRRR seem to have a
good depiction of this band and suggest that it will linger over
Spokane, Kootenai, and Shoshone counties through about 9 AM. It is
doubtful that snow intensities will increase to what they were last
evening, but some accumulations of a half inch will be possible this
morning above 2000 feet. Early morning water vapor imagery shows a
weak shortwave over eastern Oregon moving to the northeast which may
enhance precipitation over southeast Washington and the
southern/central Panhandle early this morning.

By late morning, upper level high pressure overspreading northwest
Washington and southern British Columbia should bring drier air
into northern Washington. By afternoon, light northerly flow
should begin to erode clouds from north to south. The southern
Idaho Panhandle and the Palouse are often the last places to
experience clearing in weather patterns like this. It may be
evening before Lewiston and Pullman see much break in the
overcast. Central and northeast Washington should experience a
good deal of sunshine today.

Tonight and Saturday: Some low chances for precipitation have been
retained over the Idaho Panhandle for this evening and again on
Saturday. The models continue to advertise an upper level
disturbance descending into the Panhandle in the northerly flow.
Precipitation amounts (if anything occurs at all) should be light.
Model forecast soundings show marginal and shallow instability
over the Panhandle. The north/northwest flow suggests that
precipitation chances will be the greatest over the rising terrain
of southern Shoshone county and the Camas Prairie. It is hard to
get too excited about much accumulating snow since the model
soundings are quite dry in the dendritic layer (-10C to -20C).
Therefore precipitation chances around St Maries, Deary, Clarkia
and Winchester are 30 percent or less. /GKoch

Sunday through Thursday...An eastern Pacific Ridge between
130-140W will remain established through next week. On Sunday and
Monday the ridge briefly flattens and moves across the area.
Despite the ridge models show some mid and high clouds spilling
across the area and boundary layer moisture progs show only a
marginal fog threat mainly around Wenatchee, Moses Lake, and the
northern valleys. On Tuesday into Wednesday the GFS has trended
strongly towards the ECMWF solution with a trough dropping into
the region from the northwest with a strong cold front passage Tue
night into Wednesday. Westerly flow and limited moisture with the
front will likely keep areas in the lee of the Cascades dry, with
most of the precipitation with the front confined to the Cascade
crest, and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels along and ahead of the
front will range from 2000-3000 feet...before falling Wednesday
night behind the front. Tightening surface pressure gradients with
the front along with 850mb winds of 30-50 knots will lead to at
least breezy conditions for much of the area. Precise timing of
front will dictate strength of winds as a day time passage would
give stronger winds with better mixing potential. For now just
trended the winds upward towards the 00z GFS solution. On
Thursday another weak disturbance dropping out of Canada will clip
North Idaho giving this area the best threat for snow showers. JW

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A band of light snow will linger in the Pullman, Spokane
and Coeur D`Alene areas through 15-17z. Little to no additional
accumulation is anticipated with this decaying deformation band.
With temperatures in the low 30s, runways should be wet. Dry air
should move in from the north today as the upper level ridge
amplifies over northern Washington and British Columbia. Look for
improving ceilings through the day. Pullman and Lewiston will
probably be the last airports to clear late in the afternoon or
early in the evening. /GKoch

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 38 23 35 22 34 22 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 38 24 35 20 35 22 / 40 0 10 0 0 0
Pullman 37 25 36 25 37 24 / 50 0 10 10 0 0
Lewiston 42 30 44 29 42 28 / 50 0 10 10 0 0
Colville 41 23 39 23 38 20 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 38 25 35 23 35 25 / 20 0 10 0 0 10
Kellogg 42 24 37 23 39 24 / 70 0 20 20 0 0
Moses Lake 43 25 39 25 41 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 42 25 37 26 40 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 38 21 32 22 35 21 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

255 AM PST Fri Feb 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...

Today: We will be monitoring a decaying band of rain and snow over
Spokane, Kellogg, St. Maries and Winchester this morning.
Localized accumulations of 1 to 3 inches occurred overnight over
the Palouse and portions of Shoshone county with this deformation
band. Snow levels have generally been in the 2000-2500 ft range.
Radar trends between 11 PM and 2 AM show an overall decrease in
the organization and intensity of the precipitation within the
deformation band. It is likely undergoing a good deal of
stretching and shearing as the upper level trough digs into
central California this morning. The 06z NAM and recent runs of
the HRRR seem to have a good depiction of this band and suggest
that it will linger over Spokane, Kootenai, and Shoshone counties
through about 9 AM. It is doubtful that snow intensities will
increase to what they were last evening, but some accumulations of
a half inch will be possible this morning above 2000 feet. Early
morning water vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave over eastern
Oregon moving to the northeast which may enhance precipitation
over southeast Washington and the southern/central Panhandle early
this morning.

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

215 PM MST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO START NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STRONG WARMING
TREND OCCURS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERN PORTION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO LOSE SOME INTEGRITY
JUST WEST OF US. BECOMING WINDY IN MANY LOCATIONS BUT STILL NOT
THREATENING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO FAR. EXPECTING ONE OR TWO
SPOTS TO BRIEFLY CROSS THE SUSTAINED 30 MPH VALLEY 35 MPH MOUNTAIN
THRESHOLD BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING TO
QUITE REACH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY CONDTIONS.

MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR FROM STRONG LOW PUSHING INTO ARIZONA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAIN TROUGH INFLECTION WILL COME TOGETHER WITH
MOISTURE MAINLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY FOR OUR PART OF THE STATE WITH A
SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE COMPONENT. 18Z NAMDNG5 AND 12Z ECMWF LOOK SOLID
AND CONTINUE TO HANDLE THINGS WELL. LATEST HRRR SHOWING ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT WEST AND NORTHWEST OF TUCSON BETWEEN 04Z-08Z WHICH FITS
WELL.

SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NOT
EXCESSIVE STORM TOTAL PRECIP WITH QPF GENERALLY RANGING FROM .15 IN
VALLEYS TO .5 IN MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR ALREADY PUSHING IN TONIGHT AND
BY THE TIME THE BEST PRECIP GETS HERE AFTER 12Z SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3000 TO 4000 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY ABOVE 4000
FEET...EVEN THOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO END UP WITH
ENOUGH SNOW TO MEET CRITERIA. THE PRIME AREA OF CONCERN IS 3500 TO
5500 FEET. PLEASE SEE PHXWSWTWC FOR DETAILS.

SOME CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOLID COLD AIR
IN PLACE...WITH WIDESPREAD NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREAS
OF FROST ARE A CONCERN.

ON MONDAY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH A SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD GIVE IT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN LOW.

OVERALL SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE EXPECT A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
COLD TEMPERATURES WITH AT LEAST 4 DAYS WHERE TEMPERATURES DON`T
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S. SOME CONCERNS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE FROM TUCSON THROUGH THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AT HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
BECOMING SCT250 BY 09/05Z. LOWER CLOUDS BETWEEN BKN050 AND BKN100
WILL DEVELOP 09/10Z THROUGH 09/20Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL EASE AFT
09/03Z TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KT. WIND BECOMING WEST 15-20 KT AFT
09/20Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM FOLLOWING MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MID DAY SATURDAY WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
DROPPING TO NEAR 3000 FT. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON AND OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SATURDAY
FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST ABOVE 4000 FEET INCLUDING
AZZ503-504-506>515.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

934 AM PST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER
SOCAL WHICH BEEN DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IS
BEGINNING TO SWING INLAND. AREA RADARS SHOW A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST...OTHERWISE THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS FIZZLED.
SCATTERED WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I80.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH PERSISTENT DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

HAVE UPDATED THE TODAY/TONIGHT FORECAST TO TRIM POPS AND BRING
THEM MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. THE RUC WAS THE BEST
PERFORMER WITH THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS YESTERDAY...SO HAVE LEANED
ON ITS GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. -DVC

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 242 AM PST...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED COLD UPPER LOW CENTER NOW SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BE BY MID DAY TODAY. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW HAS BROUGHT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SHASTA AND TEHAMA COUNTIES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW HOWEVER HAS
REMAINED OFFSHORE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
ERODE FROM THE NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD. AS THE LOW
DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL THIS AFTERNOON...ANY SHOWER THREAT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER
TODAY BUT MORE SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR.

THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT BUT WITH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE POTENTIAL...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A MODERATE NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS SHOW ABOUT AN 8MB SURFACE GRADIENT FROM MFR TO SAC. THIS
SURFACE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WILL BRING
BREEZY NORTH WINDS TO THE REGION WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLEARER SKIES WILL MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING BUT THE BREEZY WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED A BIT. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW MAKING FOG FORMATION UNLIKELY. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING IN A WARMER AIRMASS RESULTING IN DAYTIME
HIGHS PUSHING UPWARDS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STILL MORE WARMING IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PUSHES FARTHER INLAND WITH A BIT MORE WARMING ON MONDAY. SURFACE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON MONDAY BRINGING LIGHTER NORTH WINDS WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...FORCING THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THERE MAY ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS DOES INDEED HAPPEN...THIS "INSIDE SLIDER" COULD
BRING BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND A SLIGHT COOLING IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DANG

.AVIATION...

COLD UPPER LOW IN THE VCNTY WILL SHIFT SEWD TODAY...WITH
WRAP-AROUND SCATTERED -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER SIERNEV...
MAINLY S OF I-80. OTHERWISE...LOCAL MVFR CIGS OVER SAC VLY AND
NRN SAN JQN VALLEY DURING MORNING WILL ERODE GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEARING SKIES IN THE VALLEY...NRN MTNS AND
COASTAL RANGE AS DRY NLY WIND DEVELOPS. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH
LOCAL GUSTS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
VALLEY DURING THE AFTN. NLY FLOW CONTINUES TONITE KEEPING
FOG/STRATUS FROM FORMING IN THE VALLEY. GENERALLY DECREASING
CLOUDINESS OVER SIERNEV DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUDS MAY
LINGER NEAR SIERNEV CREST.

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1016 AM MST FRI FEB 8 2013

.UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE DENVER AREA. A RECENT GUST OF 29 KTS OCCURRED AT
APA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DRIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL HELP TO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER IN AREAS THAT DID NOT
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIP FROM THE RECENT STORM. NO RED FLAG HILITES AT
THIS TIME. ACROSS MOUNTAINS...MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BY THE
EVENING...WITH LATEST RAP DELAYING THE STRONGER QG LIFT TILL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL...CURRENT FORECASTS STILL ON TRACK...BUT
MAY NEED TO ADJUST TIMING OF THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS A
BIT EARLIER.

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN DENVER AREA. WEAK DENVER CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER DIA
HAS APPEARED TO SHIFT EAST WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING
THERE. SHOULD SEE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS DIA BY 20Z
WHILE CONTINUING AT APA. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW GUSTS OF 30 KTS OR GREATER FOR DEN IS LOWER THAT EARLIER
THOUGHT...GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. BJC TO
REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. CURRENT TAF TRENDS STILL
SEEM ON TRACK...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS AT DEN TO 22 KTS AT 20Z.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BECOMING LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. IT MAY INITIALLY BE
RAIN...BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW LATE AFTER 21Z. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE DENVER AREA WILL BE
LIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM MST FRI FEB 8 2013/

SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LARGE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN
EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON UPPER
LEVEL HUMIDITY DECREASES QUICKLY AS ANOTHER DRY SLOT MOVES IN
WHICH SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXCEPTION WOULD
BE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE AS Q-G LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE.
ANY SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING
WHEN BETTER MOISTURE...DESTABILIZATION...AND STRONGER Q-G LIFT
ARRIVE. MIGHT BE ABLE TO SNEAK OUT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVERNIGHT
IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP OUR MOUNTAINS LARGELY BLOCKED FROM OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COUNTING ON
ENOUGH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
AREA. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED IN AREAS THAT DIDNT SEE SNOW
TWO NIGHTS AGO. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...A RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN
STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT NOT AS ACTIVE AS NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR COLORADO...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE STATE FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. Q-G DIAGNOSTICS SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG DYNAMIC
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS
BECOMING SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF COLORADO...RATHER THAN ALONG A MORE PREFERRED SOUTHERN
COLORADO TRACK. A NORTHERN TRACK WILL PUSH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION UP INTO WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA RATHER THAN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. DUE TO THE STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT THE
NORTHERN TRACK IS GOING TO PRODUCE A LOT OF DOWNSLOPE WESTERLIES
AT LOW LEVELS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...IN SPITE OF BEING IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. IF
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...THEN LATER
FORECASTS WILL BEGIN TO REFLECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO THE PASSING
STORM IS GOING TO BE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAT DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO BE
FALLING...A FAIR AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW MAY RESULT. WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DURING THE
PERIOD OF HIGHEST WINDS. WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOWFALL FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS DO NO
LOOK PARTICULARLY HEAVY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WEATHER IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE REGION BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPING WILL BE PRESENT TO
REDUCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR THAT INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE STATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. AFTER DRY WEATHER AND GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS MODEL IS
NOW SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION...SO WE
WILL DEFER ANY DECISIONS ON THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL LATER.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KDEN AND KAPA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTS OF 25 KTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS
AIRMASS MIXES THIS AFTERNOON BUT SEE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 30+ KT
GUSTS IF DENVER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD. IF THIS ZONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT LIGHTER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KDEN AND KAPA BUT
THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...KBJC
SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ON THE BACK SIDE OF CONVERGENCE
ZONE SO LIGHTER WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...ANY ACCUMULATION FOR THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ048-050-051.

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1224 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM EAST OF DELMARVA WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, AS IT PASSES 150 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC
CITY THIS EVENING...THEN MOVES TO NEAR NANTUCKET SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH TUESDAY, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115A: NEW GFS CHECKED AND IT CONCURS ON I78 NORTH MOSTLY SNOW IN
OUR AREA. THE WRAP AROUND IS STILL THERE BUT I THINK I`M GOING TO
TRIM AMTS 1-2 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE AREA...PENDING THE 3PM SNOW
DEPTHS AND RADAR PATTERN. LATEST RUC NOT SHOWING MUCH DRY SLOT ANY
MORE BUT CIRRUS SEEDING MAY QUIT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS AFTN BEFORE
THE WRAP AROUND TONIGHT. ITS GOING TO BE SLIPPERY TONIGHT OVER
MOST OF E PA AND N 3/4 OF NJ.

1030A: R/S LINE NOT BUDGING MUCH A SLIGHT NORTH
DRIFT TOWARD I78. HEAVIER PCPN MIXES AND CHANGES BRIEFLY TO SNOW
MIDDAY. IF THE PCPN LIGHTENS UP...IT SHOULD GO BACK TO RAIN ALONG
AND S OF I78.

I ADDED MORE SNOW TO THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY AND A FASTER CHANGE
THIS EVENING BUT NO CHANGE IN ACCUMS SINCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S
MIDDAY AND WHILE ACCUM ON GRASS AND CARS...LESS ON PAVEMENT. AN
SPS IS POSTED FOR THE CC R/S TRANSITION ZONE.

915: LOOKED AT 12Z NAM AND WHILE IT LOOKS MORE REALISTIC AM NOT
QUITE SURE HOW WE GET ALL THIS SNOW TONIGHT. NO BIG CHANGE IN THE
FCST AT 930AM. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION E OF RTE 206 IN NJ
WILL GET A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW TODAY BUT FOR EVERYONE IN THE
ADVY/ WARNING THE MAIN EVENT IS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY 0Z-6Z. I
THINK THE 12Z NAM IS STILL TOO WARM LOOKING AT ITS 12Z TSECTIONS
AND SEEING THE CC NOT MOVING NORTH YET FROM ABOUT 20 MI N OF I95.

815 AM UPDATE: NO SIG CHANGES ATTM.

12Z ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NAM BEST FIT ON PRES. ALL MODELS SIMILAR ON
6 HR QPF ENDING 12Z. HOWEVER THE MOST IMPORTANT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GFS IS IN LARGE ERROR ON ITS THERMAL PROFILE AND THAT THE 06Z
NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH MORE ACCURATE...I.E. COLDER. CC ON THE
821 AM RADAR SHOWS THE PHASE CHANGE VERY NICELY...FROM NEAR KUKT-
JUST N OF KTTN TO MIDWAY BETWEEN KLDJ AND KBLM. WE`VE SEEN 48-52 KT
GUSTS JUST EAST OF KORF AT 13Z.

SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WINTER WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES
IN PLACE. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. WILL BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR THE MOST PART...THIS FORECAST WAS BASED HEAVILY ON THE 0000
UTC ECMWF. THE 0000 UTC NAM LOOKS A BIT TOO STRONG AT THIS
LATITUDE... AND IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER WEST THAT OTHER 0000 UTC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE WARM BIAS SEEN ON THE
ANALYSIS...AND HOW THIS IS MANIFEST THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 0000 UTC GFS LOOKS A BIT
TOO FAR EAST... CONSIDERING THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH GOES
NEGATIVE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WARM EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
THE FLOW HAS BEEN MORE EAST NORTHEAST THAN NORTHEAST. THIS IS
ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO START AS RAIN AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
KPHL AND KTTN. FURTHER NORTH...THE COLUMN AND BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE IN THE MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE TERRAIN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE TO RAIN AT TIMES TODAY.

BASED ON THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...THE BEST PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE BEST
BANDING POTENTIAL LIES WITH THE FORCING...AND THIS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR
IN THE 2100 UTC TO 0300 UTC TIMEFRAME FOR MOST PLACE. THE BEST LIFT
INITIALLY OCCURS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING CLOSE TO AN INCH (WHICH IS
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY)...HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NEW
JERSEY. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FLASHIER AREAS
(NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA OR NORTH CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY) WILL GET THE HEAVIEST RAIN. FOR THIS REASON...WE PASSED ON A
FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...IT COULD SUPPORT MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY GUSTS FOR
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS REMAIN ABOVE THE LOWERING INVERSION.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN COULD HELP THIS MOMENTUM GET THROUGH THE
INVERSION...RESULTING IN 50 MPH GUSTS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD CREATE STRONGER THAN MODEL ISALLOBARIC
FLOW...WHICH TURN COULD RESULT IN STRONGER GUSTS. BASED ON THE
ABOVE...A WIND ADVISORY WAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PERHAPS THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING IS THE RETURN OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE PHILADELPHIA
METRO AREA. AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COMES ASTRIDE OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST...THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE COLDER AIR TO FLOOD
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RESULTING IN A PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGE. RIGHT
NOW...DUE TO RAIN TODAY HAMPERING ACCUMULATIONS...WE HELD OFF ON
UPPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY...AS IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR SHOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DUSK.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING OCCURS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 0300 UTC. DURING THIS TIME...THE
PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON THE WET GROUND...WE WILL HOLD OF
ON UPGRADING SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA (INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA) TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING.

THE BEST BANDING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
DURING THE EVENING...RESULTING HEAVY RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW.
FOR NOW...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FLAVOR OF
THE CHANGEOVER...AND MOSTLY TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

HOWEVER...AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN BANDING INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEHIGH
VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING.
BETWEEN 0000 AND 0600 UTC...AREAS THAT GET INTO THE BEST BANDING
COULD SEE 2 INCHES OF SNOW AN HOUR.

SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE PRECISE LOCATIONS OF THE
BANDS...THE OVERALL SNOWFALL FORECASTS WERE ONLY TWEAKED...AND WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE IT IS CLEAR WHERE THE BANDS SET
UP. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE ENOUGH TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...SLANTWISE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS LOWER PVU AIR
COMES IN OVER THE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE SLANTWISE CONVECTION MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...AND IT WILL BE OMITTED FOR NOW,.

AGAIN...THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
SNOW ACCUMULATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEARBY NEW JERSEY AFTER THE CHANGEOVER. BANDING HERE WOULD HELP WITH
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THIS IS NOT YET SUPPORTED BY NEAR OR SHORT TERM
MODELS.

AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER 0600 UTC SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE COASTAL
NEW JERSEY. THE WOBBLING MID LEVEL SYSTEM COULD ALLOW BANDS TO
REMAIN NEAR THE OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTY COASTS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 0600 UTC
SATURDAY...BUT THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 0900 UTC TO ALLOW
ALL AREAS TO DROP BELOW 40 MPH IN GUSTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD BE NEAR CAPE COD AND
CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING OUT OF OUR AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY, SO WE HAVE BACKED OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. OUR MAIN
CONCERN SATURDAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE STORM AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE STORM INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2,000-3,000 FEET
DIFFER BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM; THE GFS SHOWS 30-35 KNOTS WHILE THE
NAM SHOWS 40-45 KNOTS. THE NAM WOULD INDICATE MUCH STRONGER WIND
GUSTS DURING THE DAY, BUT FOR NOW WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD 30-40 MPH
GUSTS WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WE DECIDED TO GO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IF WE HAVE A GOOD SNOW PACK FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO BEGIN TO RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND INTO EASTERN CANADA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND MORE PRECIPITATION. A WARM FRONT COULD BE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH, WE COULD HAVE A MIXTURE OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD,
CHANGING MOSTLY EVERYONE OVER TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS THE
AREA.

WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY, REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH. THE GFS DOES BRING UP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOME OF
OUR AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT SOUTH. WE WILL KEEP WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW ACROSS THE
AREA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND WAIT TO SEE WHAT LATER GUIDANCE
BRINGS US.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN I95 SEWD AND R/SNOW MIX KRDG AND
POSSIBLY KTTN AND PROBABLY MOSTLY SNOW AT KABE WITH THE BL TEMP
CONTROLLING PHASE DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. NE WIND A FEW G20-30 KT
TODAY I95 SEWD AND 10 TO 15 KTS KRDG AND KABE. WIND TURNS N AND
GUSTS 20-30 KT LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING AND
PCPN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE. EXACTLY WHEN...NOT SURE
AND NOT EVEN SURE WHAT THE RADAR WILL LO0OK LIKE AT THE TIME OF
THE CHANGE BUT BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z LOOKS TO BE THE BEST ESTIMATE
FOR THE CHANGE FM RAIN TO SNOW EXCEPT 02Z- 03Z KMIV AND KACY.

TONIGHT...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW FROM KPHL SOUTH AND EAST...AND SNOW CONTINUES
NORTH AND WEST. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL SOUTH AND EAST. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL BETWEEN 0000 UTC AND 0600 UTC. AFTER 0600
UTC...CONDITIONS COULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH IFR AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS, DECREASING BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR...MVFR AND/OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE VERY
LATE.

MONDAY...MVFR AND/OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF RAIN...POSSIBLE
WINTRY MIX EARLY NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

.MARINE...
CONFIDENCE IN STORM WARNING VERIFICATION IS LESS THAN AVERAGE BUT
WE CONTINUE THE HEADLINE TIL THIS RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LO E OF
THE VA CAPES PASSES WELL E OF NJK TONIGHT.

NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 0000 UTC
NAM LOOKS TOO FAR WEST WITH ITS TRACK...AND THE 0000 UTC GFS IS A
BIT TOO FAR EAST. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE TRACK...AND ITS
OUTPUT HAS BEEN USED EXTENSIVELY FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS
TIGHTENING TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WINDS. A GRADUAL RAMP UP OF THE
GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. THE BEST GRADIENT APPEARS
TO OCCUR BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0300 UTC. AT THE SAME TIME...925 MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST THAT THE 50 KNOTS OF
MOMENTUM REMAINS JUST ABOVE THE TOP OF THE SUPPRESSED INVERSION.

HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN COULD BRING SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM DOWN...
SUPPORTING GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. WHILE THE GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY FROM
NON-NAM MODELS...DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT STORM FORCE GUSTS...THE
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE TO COVER GUSTS IN HEAVY RAIN ON THE
OCEAN. SEAS SHOULD JUMP QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST NORTHEAST
FETCH RAMPS UP...AND FOR THE MOST PART A COUPLE OF FEET WAS ADDED TO
THE WAVEWATCH MODEL OUTPUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OVER DELAWARE BAY...THE GRADIENT IS NOT AS TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE NON-NAM MODEL TRACKS. AS WITH THE OCEAN...THE BEST GRADIENT
FALLS IN THE 2100 TO 0300 UTC WINDOW...AND THIS IS THE BEST SHOT AT
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS ASTRIDE OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST...WINDS BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER 0600 UTC...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE STORM WARNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY A GALE WARNING BY SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THROUGH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY WINDS WILL FINALLY
DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA; WINDS COULD
APPROACH GALE FORCE AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS WELL AS THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY COVERING BOTH THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE AS WELL AS SATURDAY MORNING`S. THE ASTRONOMICAL
FORECAST FOR THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING IS LOWER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING`S WHICH MAY KEEP THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE IN THE UPPER END
OF MINOR. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SATURDAY
MORNING`S WILL REACH MODERATE. WE MAY EVEN APPROACH SEVERE COASTAL
FLOOD LEVELS FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER DO
NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS THIS EVENING, BUT
THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY GET TO MINOR.

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AT THIS TIME

.EQUIPMENT..
DIX 88D TEMPO OTS. LOST POWER AT THE SITE. TECH ON HIS WAY. RTS
UNKNOWN.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ060-101-
103>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
012>015-019-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NJZ016>018-021>025-027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ022>025-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/HAYES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/HAYES/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 1224

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1119 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

1030A: R/S LINE NOT BUDGING MUCH A SLIGHT NORTH
DRIFT TOWARD I78. HEAVIER PCPN MIXES AND CHANGES BRIEFLY TO SNOW
MIDDAY. IF THE PCPN LIGHTENS UP...IT SHOULD GO BACK TO RAIN ALONG
AND S OF I78.

815 AM UPDATE: NO SIG CHANGES ATTM.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 0600 UTC
SATURDAY...BUT THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 0900 UTC TO ALLOW
ALL AREAS TO DROP BELOW 40 MPH IN GUSTS.

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30
KNOTS, DECREASING BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR...MVFR AND/OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE VERY
LATE.

MONDAY...MVFR AND/OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF RAIN...POSSIBLE
WINTRY MIX EARLY NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

.MARINE...
CONFIDENCE IN STORM WARNING VERIFICATION IS LESS THAN AVERAGE BUT
WE CONTINUE THE HEADLINE TIL THIS RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LO E OF
THE VA CAPES PASSES WELL E OF NJK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER DO
NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS THIS EVENING, BUT
THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY GET TO MINOR.

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AT THIS TIME

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ060-101-103>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
008.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>015-019-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NJZ016>018-021>025-027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ022>025-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/HAYES 1118
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/HAYES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/HAYES/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

242 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 242 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TOWARD OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. HAVE SEEN SOME PERIODIC
THINNING OF THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE EASTERN CWA...WITH SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT EROSION COMING IN FROM WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. UPPER ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE
CUTOFF LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN OUR WEATHER DURING THE
WEEKEND.

INITIAL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THE CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE RAIN EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT WITH THE EXISTING COVERAGE. THE HRRR...WHICH
IS FAIRLY CLOSE NOW...FILLS ANY GAPS BACK IN THIS EVENING. THE NAM
THINKS ANYTHING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD BE CLEAR
ALREADY AND ERODES THE REST OF IT BY EARLY EVENING. THE RAP 925 MB
HUMIDITY APPEARS FAIRLY CLOSE RIGHT NOW AND SHOWS GRADUAL EROSION
FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT ITS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION AT 950 MB REMAINING RATHER TIGHT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE RAP 925 MB HUMIDITY AND
THE MOS GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE SKY GRIDS...WHICH SHOW SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONE BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED DURING THE PROCESS. NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED IN THE
GRIDS FOR THE RAIN TIMING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
HAVE BUMPED UP POP VALUES A LITTLE MORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP EASTWARD
DURING SUNDAY EVENING...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY SNOW.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH OR SO...AND
WITH THE LOW SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AM EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY
DAY ON MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH OR SO. THE
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY WILL BE NORTH OF I-72...CLOSER TO THE
LOW.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE TRAILING END OF THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP ALONG THE GULF
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT
OFF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS FAR NORTH...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
ON WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WOULD DRIFT
INTO ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER AND COLDER
SCENARIO FOR US...VERSUS THE BROADER LONG WAVE TROUGH OF THE
ECMWF. HAVE LIMITED ANY POPS AT THE END OF THE WEEK TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1138 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

17Z/11AM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH A SUBSTANTIAL
THINNING IN THE CLOUDS IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE EAST. GIVEN
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...THINK A FEW GLIMPSES OF SUN WILL BE
LIKELY FROM KBMI AND KDEC EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
GENERAL SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING...THEN
FURTHER WEST AT BOTH KSPI AND KPIA AFTER 03Z. WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BE FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL VEER
TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

BARNES

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

252 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS TWO SEPARATE 850MB LOWS STARTING TO MERGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MN/WI MOVING INTO PARTS OF ILLINOIS IN A SUBSIDENCE
AREA. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM
FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TEXAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS WITH 30S AND HIGHER OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

CLOUDS WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT UNTIL RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AND ALLOWS THE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS KS/MO TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM
JUST PRIOR TO DAWN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE COULD BE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE VERY PATCHY
IN NATURE. THE RAP INITIALLY INDICATED SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BUT MORE RECENT TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR THIS EVENING AND OVER THE SNOW FIELD SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE DIGITS.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
20S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ..08..

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE SATURDAY EVENING...AND
WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY SURGING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND OPAQUE EARLY ON...IF
NOT ALREADY AT SUNSET IN MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT....ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN AFTER A POSSIBLE EVENING DIP TO LOWS EARLY IN
THE EVENING. THUS...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT...IT REALLY SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN OUR SNOW PACK ONLY OVER
OUR FAR NORTH...AND THE INCREASING WAA AFTER AN ALREADY MILD DAY
PRECEDING IT. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE FAR
NORTH...OVER THE CURRENT SNOW AREA...BUT EVEN THERE THE THREAT FOR
NEW ICE FORMATION FROM FREEZING RAIN SEEMS QUITE LOW.

OTHERWISE...WAA OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...WITH A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER WORKING OVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IS LIKELY WITH
SOME HIGHER POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION AND ANY TRAINING BANDED HEAVY
RAINS. AFTER 3 PM...A DRY SLOT SHOULD AFFECT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WRAPPING IN. SOME SHOWERS MAY
YET OCCUR IN THE NORTH HALF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN
DURING THE EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AND ON MONDAY
MORNING.

THERE SEEMS VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS
STORM...AS MODELS NOW HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY IN THE
DEEP MIXED OCCLUDED CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE MILD AIR SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER OR WESTERLY SHORT WAVE
MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN OR SNOW TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE BEYOND THAT IT EXISTS.
THE GFS SHOWS A PERSISTENT SNOW...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A GLANCING
SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW GOING MAINLY NORTH.

ERVIN

.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

CHANGES FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/09. MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WILL REMAIN THERE AS THE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING DEVELOPING ACROSS KS/MO THAT
BEGINS MOVING NORTH INTO IA/IL AFT 06Z/09. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 12Z/09. ..08..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1207 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
EXTENDED STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z DVN
AND OAX SOUNDINGS HAD DEEP SATURATION THROUGH 100 MB IN THE STRATUS
DECK. NONE OF THE MODELS REALLY HANDLED THIS WELL. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.
WITH THE LACK OF DRY ADVECTION IN THIS LAYER...NOT SURE IF THE
STRATUS WILL BREAK TONIGHT. THEREFORE...UPPED SKY COVER SOME. WILL
EVALUATE MORE THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...08/18Z
THE STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DMX TAF SITES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY...INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT WE ARE HOLDING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CRITICAL TAF
PERIOD. AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK
TO GRADUALLY START TO LIFT AND BREAK UP STARTING FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 KT TO 10 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY. AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WE ARE EPEXCTING THE
WINDS TO START TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO THE 10 KT TO 15
KT RANGE BY 18Z SATURDAY.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1043 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.UPDATE...
A SIGNIFICANT REVISION TO THE FCST HAS BEEN DONE REGARDING CLOUD
TRENDS.

MORNING ANALYSIS BRINGS QUESTIONS ON THE CLEARING TREND TODAY. WIND
FLOW ON THE 925MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE INDICATES THE DOWNWARD
MOTION ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWFA
AROUND MID DAY. ELSEWHERE...THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. AS SUCH THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAIN.

BASED ON THE RAP TRENDS...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DOWNWARD MOTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS MO/KS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH LATE TONIGHT SO
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP THERE AND RESULT IN A
CLEARING TREND THAT MOVES NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

AREAS THAT DO CLEAR TODAY WILL CLOUD BACK OVER AFTER SUNSET AND
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CLEARING OCCURS.
THE CLEARING SATURDAY WILL BE BRIEF AS ADVANCE CLOUDS TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM START ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..08..

.AVIATION...
CHANGES FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

UPDATE...
SEEING CLEARING SKIES TAKING PLACE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND WAS
SPREADING SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF EXTENSIVE LOW
STRATUS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NORTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

341 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NV
AND SOUTHEAST CA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS...WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. THE WESTERN COUNTIES CONTINUED TO REPORT
LOW STRATUS...BUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THE STRATUS
SHOULD MIX OUT.

TONIGHT...SCT TO BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM REDEVELOPING
TONIGHT...ALSO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. THE RAP MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
STRATUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING BUT GIVEN INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND SFC WINDS I WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE 18Z NAM
MODEL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NV WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A LEE
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN CO.
SOUTHEAST-SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS. WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE JUST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD
HELP HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MID 50S DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER.

GARGAN

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATIONS ACROSS THE CWA
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT FROM 00Z-12Z. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF THE H5 CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION FROM THE 06Z-12Z WINDOW WITH 100KT 500MB JET STREAK...ROBUST
PV ANOMALY EXTENDING DOWN TO 590 MB...DEEP OMEGA...0-6KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 60-70KTS...AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-350 J/KG. CWA GETS DRY
SLOTTED BY 12Z-18Z AND BRINGS AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS NOT VERY ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE DRY SLOTTING
FEATURE...EXPECT TO SEE AT MOST A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT LEFT LINGERING CHANCES ALONG THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. ATTM...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE...BUT THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT POTENTIALLY SOME OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CAA OCCURS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DROP IN 850MB TEMPS FROM 5C TO -5C. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY WITH A NEARLY 10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA. NAM PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDES APPROACH 50 MICROBARS/KM
ATTM...SO EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 35-40MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE
HIGH DOMINATE THE PATTERN ACROSS KANSAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40`S AND
LOWS IN THE 20`S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

EXTENDED...NEXT FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIMITED..SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...BUT IF GFS IS
CORRECT...850MB TEMPS OF -20C COULD BE REALIZED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY A CHANCE FOR SNOW AS A
SHRTWV PUSHES IN FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...

THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY THIN SATURATED LAYER WHICH
REPRESENTS THE STRATUS DECK. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER OUT AS MIXING TAKES PLACE OVER KTOP AND KFOE.
THIS MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WORKING WESTWARD
INTO KMHK AROUND 20Z. AFTER THAT ALL THE SITES WILL BE VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND
10KT.

SANDERS

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

323 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN: TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL AS
ASSOCIATED INTENSITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A SYSTEM AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD.

SYNOPSIS: TROUGH POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST CONTINUES ITS
MOVEMENT FURTHER INLAND AND SHALL SCOOT EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL
NOT BE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS UNTIL 0Z ON SUNDAY AND WILL
QUICKLY TRAVEL NORTHEAST...HOWEVER A SECONDARY MORE SOUTHERLY SYSTEM
SHALL REMAIN BEHIND AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.

TONIGHT TO SUNDAY: STRATUS COULD LINGER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE CWA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
FOG AS OCCURRED THIS MORNING DUE TO MIXING WINDS. ONLY THE RAP
PLACES AN AREA OF FOG OVER THE FLINT HILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...YET CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THIS AREA. HIGHER
LIKELIHOODS APPEAR TO BE OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THERE
WILL BE A TIGHTENED GRADIENT TO HELP PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF
APPROXIMATELY 30KTS IN AREAS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOON TO 7PM ON SATURDAY FOR ONLY A FEW
COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT DECIDED TO ONLY
PLACE ONE IN THE AREAS WITH HIGHEST DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

EXPECT THERE COULD BE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW TO DIVERT
SOME OF THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RESPECTIVE
DYNAMICS/FORCING MOVING IN A SIMILAR FASHION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
ABOUT 70-80KTS FOR EASTERN KANSAS...BUT CAPE VALUES ARE MINIMAL AT
BEST. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION HAS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ABOUT
MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO MODIFY POP GRIDS TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND LEAVING CHANCES OUT AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHALL HOVER ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES AROUND 50 FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE MID 50S TO LOW 60S MAY BE
FOUND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RESPECTIVELY.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY: A SECONDARY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEEKEND WILL LINGER OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRING MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME WITH ITS TRENDING SOUTHERN POSITION. TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND A TAD HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF RIDGING.

THURSDAY TO FRIDAY: THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS GOING TO
CREEP SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH...HOWEVER THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND ANY
PRECIPITATION ARE A BIT IN QUESTION. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR TO USHER IN BEHIND FOR FRIDAY WHERE HIGHS
MAY BE IN THE 30S AND NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BE 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. BETTER AGREEMENT HAS PROMPTED SLIGHT AND CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY. THESE CHANCES AS WELL AS IMPACTS OF THE
COOLER AIR ON THE TEMPERATURES MAY AND WILL LIKELY BE ALTERED WITH
FUTURE FORECASTS.

JUANITA

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN HAZARDS: LINGERING LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNTIL
20-22Z.

STRATUS/FOG SHIELD CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE SHORT RANGE RUC MODEL AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE TENDS TO AGREE THE BEST...THAT THIS STRATUS DECK HAS COME
TO A HALT TO THE WEST OF KICT/KHUT. THE LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z FOR KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN...BUT
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS/FOG TO SLOWLY ERODE AFTER
20-22Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRATUS LINGERING THE LONGEST AT
KSLN AND KCNU.

AFTER THIS CLOUD DECK COMPLETELY GOES AWAY AFTER 22Z...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES.

KETCHAM

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 36 53 43 54 / 0 50 60 10
HUTCHINSON 35 52 42 52 / 0 50 60 0
NEWTON 35 52 44 52 / 0 50 60 10
ELDORADO 35 52 45 54 / 0 40 60 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 34 53 44 59 / 0 50 60 10
RUSSELL 34 51 35 47 / 0 50 60 10
GREAT BEND 37 51 37 49 / 0 50 50 0
SALINA 36 54 43 50 / 0 50 60 10
MCPHERSON 37 52 43 51 / 0 50 60 10
COFFEYVILLE 31 55 46 63 / 0 40 80 40
CHANUTE 31 55 46 61 / 0 40 80 40
IOLA 31 55 46 60 / 0 30 80 40
PARSONS-KPPF 32 54 47 62 / 0 40 80 40

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048-050.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1137 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.AVIATION...

SANDERS

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1131 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN HAZARDS: LINGERING LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNTIL
20-22Z.

AFTER THIS CLOUD DECK COMPLETELY GOES AWAY AFTER 22Z...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES.

KETCHAM

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

UPDATE...

STRATUS AND PESKY DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA OF FOG/STRATUS IS
GRADUALLY DRIFTING SW...WITH THE FIRST 30 MILES OF THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRATUS WHERE THE DENSE FOG IS LOCATED. VSBYS HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE ALONG THIS LEADING EDGE. PLAN ON HANDLING
THIS WITH A SHORT TERM NOWCAST DUE TO THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FOG. SHORT RANGE RUC MODEL IS VERY PESSIMISTIC IN LIFTING/BURNING
THIS FOG FOR OFF UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z. SO HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION
OF THE FOG/STRATUS UNTIL THEN. THINK THIS DECK WILL BURN OFF SOME
FROM THE EDGES...BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN HAZARDS: LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

JMC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MCGUIRE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 48 36 53 47 / 0 0 40 60
HUTCHINSON 48 35 52 44 / 0 0 40 60
NEWTON 47 35 52 47 / 0 0 40 60
ELDORADO 47 35 52 49 / 0 0 40 60
WINFIELD-KWLD 48 34 53 50 / 0 0 40 60
RUSSELL 48 34 51 37 / 0 0 30 60
GREAT BEND 49 37 51 37 / 0 0 30 50
SALINA 46 36 54 43 / 0 0 30 60
MCPHERSON 47 37 52 44 / 0 0 30 60
COFFEYVILLE 47 31 55 49 / 0 0 40 70
CHANUTE 46 30 55 48 / 0 0 40 70
IOLA 46 30 55 47 / 0 0 30 70
PARSONS-KPPF 47 31 54 49 / 0 0 40 70

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1006 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN HAZARDS: LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

JMC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MCGUIRE

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

314 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2013

.Short Term (Tonight - Saturday night)...
Issued at 237 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2013

A long ridge of high pressure stretching from eastern Canada to the
Gulf of Mexico will keep our weather quiet tonight and into the
weekend. Low clouds will likely stick around into this evening
before finally breaking up overnight. With clearing skies and winds
becoming light, temperatures should be able to drop well into the
20s. Some light patchy fog could form around sunrise but dew point
depressions should remain large enough to prevent anything
significant.

Saturday will be a pleasant day with light winds, mostly sunny
skies, and afternoon temperatures peaking in the 40s north to around
50 south.

Saturday night a weak warm front, extending eastward from low
pressure over the Central Plains, will move through. This feature
will increase clouds and turn winds around to the south southeast by
Sunday morning. Low temperatures will likely occur around midnight
and then either go steady or rise a couple of degrees. The mercury
will bottom out in the 30s.

.Long Term (Sunday - Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2013

The start of the long term period will feature a broad trough across
the central United States with an amplified ridge over the eastern
seaboard. This trough will push east through the Ohio Valley
through the extended period, providing good chances for
precipitation on Sunday followed by a period of seasonal weather
conditions.

A strong shortwave trough will eject out of the broad central CONUS
trough on Sunday, inducing a surface low across the Upper
Mississippi Valley as the parent trough takes on a negative tilt.
This surface low will quickly push northeast across the northern
Great Lakes.

Ahead of this system, a warm and moist airmass will
quickly spread north into the Ohio Valley. PWATs will be 2-3
standard deviations above normal for mid February, which will set
the stage for some moderate to locally heavy rainfall. The initial
wave of isentropic ascent will overspread central KY and southern IN
around 12-18Z Sunday. Model soundings and cross-sections show quite
a bit of low-level dry air to overcome, however, so think that the
bulk of the precipitation will hold off until after 18Z on Sunday.
Despite the best forcing going north, moist/convergent flow on the
nose of a 45-55 knot low-level jet coupled with moderate height
falls aloft should yield a solid line of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall out ahead of the surface front.

Thunder potential with Sunday`s system looks marginal, but enough to
warrant a slight chance mention. A very moist airmass (soundings
fully saturated almost up to 200 mb!) will definitely limit overall
instability, but given the strengthening/convergent low-level wind
fields, embedded updrafts capable of some thunder will be possible
as the system rolls through. A stout warm nose at 850 mb will limit
the potential for anything to become surface-based, so severe
weather does not appear likely at this time. Therefore, locally
heavy rainfall and some gusty sub-severe winds look to be the main
threats with this system.

Dry conditions will work in for Monday and Tuesday. Monday still
looks rather warm (highs in the 50s) before another reinforcing shot
of cold air arrives on Tuesday, dropping highs back into the 40s.

Guidance then begins to diverge with the handling of a southern
stream system on Wednesday. The 08/12Z GFS has been quite
aggressive the past run or two with bringing a deformation band of
rain/snow into southern KY. In fact, taken at face value, the
08/12Z GFS would give several inches of a heavy, wet snow to
southern KY. The bad news for all you snow lovers is that the ECMWF
has been very consistent in its solution of keeping all the
precipitation south. Therefore, will lean toward the consistent
ECMWF and continue with a dry forecast. However, this system will
need to be watched in the coming days as the operational GFS now is
gaining some support from some of its 08/12Z ensemble members.

Otherwise, the Wednesday system quickly pushes east, allowing for
dry conditions to work back in for Thursday. After highs in the 40s
on Wednesday, temperatures will rebound into the upper 40s and lower
50s on Thursday.

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1218 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2013

With high pressure moving in, low ceilings are the main challenge.
The models aren`t much help, with the NAM12 saying we should already
be sunny. However, the HRRR and RR agree that the low clouds will
hang tough through at least this evening, and knowing how
notoriously slow low ceilings can be to clear out (versus model
projections), will hold on to the MVFR ceilings for several more
hours. Of some concern is some thin spots and breaks showing up
across Illinois and Indiana, though, so will have to keep an eye on
those.

Some light BR isn`t entirely out of the question overnight, but even
if skies do clear out it appears that dew point depressions will
remain large enough to keep any visibility restrictions out of the
TAFs for now.

Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots, with a few higher gusts, today
will become light tonight and then shift to the east on Saturday
around 5 to 10 knots.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Short Term.......13
Long Term........KJD
Aviation.........13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1218 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Today - Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2013

.Long Term (Saturday Night - Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2013

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1218 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2013

Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots, with a few higher gusts, today
will become light tonight and then shift to the east on Saturday
around 5 to 10 knots.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$

Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1203 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH IS WASHING OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
ACADIANA AREA. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS MIXED OUT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK. THE NAM DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DECK WHICH
EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AS WELL AS THE TYLER AREA OF EAST
TEXAS. SOME BREAKS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM OF LCH, LFT AND ARA SO WENT
WITH VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE TERMINALS.

DUE TO THE THICKER DECK INTO CENLA, OPTED TO BLEND IN RUC AND GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH DELAYS VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR
AEX. THE LAYER IS THINNER TO THE WEST SO WENT WITH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LCH, SUNDOWN FOR BPT.

RETURN FLOW MVFR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING INTO ALL THE TERMINALS
SOUTH OF AEX.

SWEENEY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

UPDATE...
HAD TO DO A QUICK UPDATE TO HANDLE THE MARINE FOG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH VISIBILITIES STILL BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1 SM IN AREAS ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
THAT THIS FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS IS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH
THE FRONT. SO HAD TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY AND EXPAND THE AREA A
BIT. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TRIM THE ADVISORY WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING.

ALSO WILL UPDATE THE ZONES AFTER 9 AM TO MAINLY TRIM AFTERNOON
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND
PARISHES WITH STRONGER CAA AND THICK CLOUD COVER. WILL ALSO REMOVE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM THE INLAND AREAS.

BRAZZELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

UPDATE...
REMOVED CALCASIEU...THE WESTERN PORTION OF CAMERON...ACADIA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ALONG CAMERON FROM THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH AND THE
VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

AVIATION...
FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TX THIS AM WITH VSBY COMING UP
ALTHOUGH CEILINGS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT IN SW LA VSBYS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RISE AT LCH. VSBY AT
LFT AND ARA WILL BEGIN TO RISE ALTHOUGH LIKE SE TX CEILINGS WILL
BE THE LAST TO IMPROVE. EXPECTING ALL SITES TO GO VFR BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS INLAND
SE TX THRU W LA. AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF S LA...AND THE COASTAL
LAKES/BAYS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THRU 15Z FOR THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH AREAS ACROSS SW LA
COULD BE LIFTED EARLIER AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SE THIS MORNING.

LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH THIS FROPA WILL PROHIBIT ANY
CONVECTION. ALSO NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS...AS THE MAIN
EMPHASIS OF THE HIGH WILL BE WELL N AND E OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT PROBABLY AT BEST
PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70.

THE PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED...AS CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
SAT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM (CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST
COAST) APPROACHES THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE INITIATION OF THIS
MULTI-DAY PRECIP EVENT WILL GET OFF WITH A BANG AS A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE POOLING AND LIFT...IN WHAT LOOKS LIKE A
SQUALL LINE TO MOVE THRU SUN MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA OUTLINED IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR
TSTMS...MAINLY FOR POSSIBLE SUPER CELLS...AND OF COURSE...DAMAGING
WINDS LIKELY WITH THIS SQUALL LINE.

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NE OF THE REGION...LEAVING
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR REGION THRU TUE.
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINING SW...SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS MOVING NE
WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP HEALTHY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU TUE.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN ENDING THE SHRA/TSRA BY
TUE AFTERNOON.

DML

MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING AHEAD OF IT
ACROSS THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...AND COASTAL WATERS OUT 20
NAUTICAL MILES. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 69 50 67 61 74 / 10 10 10 30 40
KBPT 69 51 67 62 74 / 10 10 10 30 30
KAEX 64 44 66 58 74 / 10 10 10 30 80
KLFT 69 49 69 61 76 / 10 10 10 20 50

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

256 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013
(TONIGHT)

AT 20Z...NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. AT
THE SFC...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM WRN WI INTO NWRN MO. SAT PIX
SHOWS EXTENSIVE AREA OF LO ST/SC CLOUD...BUT IT HAS BEEN SHRINKING
AND BEEN DISPLAYING FISSURES THE PAST FEW HRS...MOST NOTABLY OVER
SWRN-WRN MO AND PARTS OF IL. LARGE AREA OF THINNER CI CLOUDS ARE
SEEN SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO THE W OF MO. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL RISES SINCE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS RATHER PERSISTENT LO CLOUDS...STILL A HANGOVER
FROM YESTERDAY/S WX SYSTEM. FROM PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSION LATE
THIS MORNING...MAIN OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLEARING WILL PRESENT
THEMSELVES WITH ANY ADDITIONAL DISSIPATION THAT THE SUN CAN DO OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AS THAT WINDOW IS STARTING TO CLOSE...WITH
HELP FROM ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF DOWNSLOPE AND WHERE SUBSIDENCE CAN
BE STRONG ENOUGH WHERE THE LO CLOUD DECK IS THIN ENOUGH. FROM THAT
POINT HEADING INTO THE NIGHT...ADVECTION WILL THEN TAKE OVER...AND
SO FCST CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON THIS ISSUE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING ONCE DISSIPATION POTENTIAL IS GONE AND IT BECOMES ALL
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES.

FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN CNTRL IL WHERE CLOUDS
ARE ABOUT 500-600FT THICK AND WHATEVER CAN EDGE TOWARDS CNTRL-SERN
MO FROM AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT FROM PRIMARILY DOWNSLOPE
PROCESSES. OTHERWISE...ONCE ADVECTION BECOMES THE ONLY GAME IN
TOWN...WILL NEED TO WAIT OUT THE LO LEVEL RIDGE UNTIL FLOW TURNS OUT
OF THE S LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. BOTTOM LINE...LOOKS TO
BE CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE E ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND ALLOW THE ABUNDANT...MOSTLY THIN...CI CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD BY
DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE TO PLUNGE DESPITE SFC RIDGE
AXIS LIKEWISE SLIDING ACROSS OUR REGION WITH CLOUD ISSUES...TRADING
ONE CEILING FOR ANOTHER...ALBEIT HIGHER...ONE. WHERE LO CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO CLEAR...HAVE WENT THE MOST ABOVE MOS
FOR MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...PREFERRED NEAR THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE IT TENDED TO GO TOO OPTIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER AS A RULE.

TES

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013
(TOMORROW THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)

WARM AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH SELY WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AROUND H92 WHICH SUPPORTS
AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S GIVEN H92 TEMPERATURES OF
2-5 DEGREES AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION.

A 40-50KT LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD ABOVE A WMFNT AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH AR INTO SRN MO ON SAT NIGHT. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN
PDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THE DELAY IN MOISTURE RETURN WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA...SOME OF THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS DEPICTED BY SREF/GFS/WRF FCSTS OF PW VALUES WHICH
RISE TO OVER 2 STDDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEB IN THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM ON SUNDAY AS THEY
WERE ON SAT BECAUSE THE SFC WMFNT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN LEADING TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND MORE INSOLATION
ACROSS SOME PARTS OF THE CWA. A CDFNT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DVLPS ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS IN THE WAKE
OF SUNDAYS SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SETTLING ON A SRN
SOLUTION WITH THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA
ON TUE NIGHT AND WED. MODELS ALSO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
CROSSING THE ROCKIES ON WED AND MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON THU
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS ON THE
DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN SHORTWAVES AND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THEY
WILL DIG.

KANOFSKY

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

CONTINUE TO TREND MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS AND CONDITIONS THRU
THRU THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON TRENDS...SEE UPDATED DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR A MORE
TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING FOR KCOU BUT
MS RIVER AXIS WILL BE WHERE THE DIE-HARD CLOUDS LINGER. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR KCOU TO LOSE THEIR CIG WILL BE AFTER 21Z WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE AND MAY EVEN MOVE IN AND OUT DURING THIS
PERIOD UNTIL LATE EVENING WHEN LO CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT FOR GOOD. STL
METRO SITES ALSO SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SE
WINDS ALOFT KICK IN AND BENEFIT FROM WHAT SHOULD BE A CLEARING
AREA TO OUR S...WITH KUIN THE LAST TO LOSE THE LO CIG IF ALL GOES
AS EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT STEERING WINDS WILL BE
TOO LIGHT WITH RIDGE THAT LO CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. NET EFFECT WILL BE LOSE ONE CIG FOR ANOTHER IN MOST
CASES BUT IT WILL BE A MVFR FOR A VFR AS HI CI CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. N-NE SFC WNDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VRBL WITH RIDGE PASSAGE AND THEN SE ON SATURDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
CLEARING EXPECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT MAY CONTINUE FARTHER IF
WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL ARE VERY LIGHT...WITH VFR CIGS FROM CI CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. N-NE SFC WNDS LESS THAN 10KTS
VEERING SE BY SATURDAY.

TES

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS 29 50 39 58 / 0 0 60 80
QUINCY 27 47 36 52 / 0 5 60 80
COLUMBIA 27 53 40 60 / 0 5 80 80
JEFFERSON CITY 27 54 41 61 / 0 5 80 80
SALEM 24 47 38 53 / 0 0 40 100
FARMINGTON 25 52 39 55 / 0 5 60 90

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

235 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013
(TONIGHT)

TES

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

PCPN TO SHUT OFF PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN
THE 30S.

BYRD

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1145 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

LATEST NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS STEERING WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL OUT OF THE
N-NE THRU THE DAY TODAY...SO CLEARING BY ADVECTION IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN. SUN ANGLE IS STRONGER NOW THAN IT WAS LAST MONTH...BUT IT
WILL STILL NEED HELP...AND APPROACHING /DIRTY RIDGE/ AXIS OVER
CNTRL IA AND NWRN MO WILL PROMOTE SOME SUBSIDENCE TODAY...MOST
NOTABLY OVER CNTRL IL. PIREPS SHOW THE THINNEST CLOUD DECKS... OF
AROUND 1KFT...ARE OVER NWRN IL AND SWRN MO AND SO THESE WILL BE
THE FIRST TO GO...THE LATTER ALSO FROM DOWNSLOPE FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU FROM NE SFC WND COMPONENT.

SO...LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR TO OUR NE IN CNTRL IL AS WELL
AS TO OUR SW OVER THE OZARKS AND WRN MO. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF
OUR FA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MS RIVER...STILL IN THE CLOUDY ZONE
FOR TODAY SAVE THE SERN MO AREAS WHICH SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONAL CLIMO WITH LO CIGS AND NE SFC WNDS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
DIURNAL BOUNCE...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS TO MAXES IN THE 30S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT LO 40S IN SERN MO AND ARND 40 IN CNTRL
MO.

CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY BUILD BACK INTO CNTRL MO FOR A PERIOD THIS
EVENING BEFORE VEERING CLOUD LEVEL WINDS TO THE SE FINALLY PUSH
THEM OUT LATER TONIGHT ONLY TO BE REPLACED WITH THIN CI CLOUDS
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TES

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013
(TODAY)

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

PCPN TO SHUT OFF PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN
THE 30S.

BYRD

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

TES

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1140 AM CST Fri Feb 8 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
/1014 AM CST Fri Feb 8 2013/

Stratus shield shows little signs of dissipating except in far
southwestern portions of the forecast area, so have increased sky
cover and lowered high temperatures for much of the forecast area.
Will need to continue to monitor the erosion of cloud cover and
temperature trends in the southwest over the next several hours.

Laflin

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Today through Sunday)...

Best bet for showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday night and
Sunday morning.

Medium Range (Monday through Friday)...

.AVIATION...

For the 18z TAFs... The large expanse of low-end MVFR to marginally
IFR stratus finally beginning to show signs of erosion in southern
and west central Missouri this afternoon, likely scattering out
ceilings in the KC area over the next 1-2 hours. Clearing will build
very slowly eastward this afternoon, but areas of north central and
eastern Missouri may not clear until well after sunset. Winds will
slowly back to the south today through tonight, and may gust out of
the south at 25 to 30 kts by late morning Saturday.

Laflin

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1100 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

CONDITIONAL CLIMO WITH LO CIGS AND NE SFC WNDS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
DIURNAL BOUNCE...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS TO MAXES IN THE 30S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT LO 40S IN SERN MO AND ARND 40 IN CNTRL
MO.

TES

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013
(TODAY)

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

PCPN TO SHUT OFF PRETTY QUICK SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN
THE 30S.

BYRD

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...MVFR CIG SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTN...THOUGH THIS TIMING MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM NORTH TO SE AS SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST THIS EVENING.

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1016 AM CST Fri Feb 8 2013

.UPDATE...
/1014 AM CST Fri Feb 8 2013/

Laflin

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Today through Sunday)...

Best bet for showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday night and
Sunday morning.

Medium Range (Monday through Friday)...

.AVIATION...

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

528 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEXT
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 528 PM EST FRIDAY...SFC CYCLONE UNDERGOING RAPID DEEPENING
NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. RAP ANALYSES SHOW A ZONE OF DEVELOPING
700 MB FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. BELIEVE THIS AS WELL AS SOME CONVERGENCE IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL HELP TO FOCUS BANDS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. COMPOSITE
RADAR IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BEAR THIS OUT WITH BANDED 25 TO 30
DBZ ECHOES. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TEXT
TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THESE BANDS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LEND ITSELF TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
EXCEPT TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRIDAY...
WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CWA THIS AFTNOON...WITH
VARYING AMTS ACROSS THE AREA THUS FAR. HIGHEST TOTALS ATTM ARE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CVLY INTO N NY. LESSER AMTS OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES DUE TO AREA BEING BETWEEN THE TWO SFC LOWS THRU THE DAY.
INLAND LOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVERNGT...TRANSFERRING ENERGY
TO OFFSHORE LOW. MUCH OF SNOW OCCURRING NOW WILL SHIFT TO E VT
OVERNGT TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE LACK OF ACCUM SNOWS FOR
SC VT...THESE AREAS WILL MAKE UP FOR IT OVERNGT. HAVE ADJUSTED
AMTS THRU THE OVERNGT FOR STORM TOTALS. ADJUSTED NUMBERS DOWNWARD
BY SEVERAL INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF ADDISON/RUTLAND COUNTIES DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING/SHADOWING EFFECTS. HIGHEST AMTS FOR CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TOWARDS DACKS/SLV AND SE VT...ESPECIALLY IN HIR ELEV OF
WINDSOR COUNTY. OVERALL 8-16 INCHES STORM ACCUM WITH LCL AMTS HIR
NEAR 20 INCHES IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WINDS ON THE INCR AS WELL
WITH GRADIENT SHIFTING WITH COASTL LOW MVG TOWARDS CAPE COD. TIGHT
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GUST POTENTIAL 30-40 MPH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECTING WINTER
STORM TO WORKING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...PUTTING FOCUS OF REMAINING
SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN VT BFR TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHARP CUTOFF AS RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION. LOOKING FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO ACCUM FOR SAT
MORNING...W/ FOCUS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SOME LGT NON-ACCUM -SW
FOR WESTERN SLOPES/CVLY FOR SAT MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
TAPER OFF FROM W TO E AS RIDGE INTO AREA. CLRING SKIES COMBINED
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER FOR SAT NGT HAS TEMPS DROPPING ACROSS THE
CWA. MDL GUIDANCE IS MIXED FOR OVERNGT LOWS. MAV GUIDANCE TOO CD
OVER PAST WEEK OR SO WILL BE MVG CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS
VALLEY LOCALES IN SINGLE NUMBERS ABV ZERO AND NEGATIVE NUMBERS FOR
HIR ELEV. NICE CD DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. GOING BLW NORMAL NUMBERS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY DESPITE FULL
SUNSHINE. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN TEENS FOR VALLEY LOCALES AND NEAR
10F FOR HIR ELEV. GOING INTO SUN NGT...RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BUILD INTO THE ST LAW VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY THE CVLY OVERNGT SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAP LOWS IN THESE
AREAS...ALSO AIDED BY INCR CLDS FOR N NY AS FRNTL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NE. SL CHANCE BY MON MORNING FOR -SW FOR N NY...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NEAR LK ONTARIO.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST FRIDAY...THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW GOOD
CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTN...WITH THE SFC LOW
TRACKING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
PERIOD OF LOW- LEVEL WAA/QG FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION (QPF UP TO 0.25") DURING MONDAY
AFTN INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE BECOMES MARGINAL FOR SNOW WITH 850MB 0C LINE LIFTING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER IN ADVANCE OF SFC LOW FOR A TIME MONDAY AFTN. OUR
TOP-DOWN APPROACH FOR P-TYPE YIELDS A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AND A BIT
OF RAIN FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND S-CENTRAL VT VALLEYS. COULD BE SOME
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS - ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
MONDAY AFTN AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY (60-70 PERCENT). HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WINDS
BECOME MODERATE NWLY 15-25 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS INCLUDING THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS. THIS NWLY FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S...BUT THEN IN THE
MID-UPR 20S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THU-FRI...BUT WITH GENERAL TENDENCY IN SOLNS
FOR DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPS SOMEWHAT ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. POPS AT THIS POINT ARE LOW...WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BOTH DAYS.

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION AND GROUND-
BASED OPERATIONS OWING TO MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY UNTIL THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS SATURDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
STEADY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND VSBY GENERALLY BELOW 1 MILE.
SNOW IS STEADIEST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LIGHTER SNOW AT
RUT. AS COASTAL LOW DEEPENS OFF DELMARVA AND MOVES SE OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE KRUT BECOMING IFR IN SNOW AFTER 21Z. LOW
PULLS EAST OF CAPE COD TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW
AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 30
KTS TOWARD 18Z SATURDAY. SNOW GENERALLY ENDS BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH
VSBY BECOMING P6SM AND CEILINGS RISING TO 2000-3500 FT BY 15Z SAT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM SYSTEM CLEARS OUT
OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY
MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM BRINGS A PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRY PCPN AND MVFR/OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY VFR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AT
MPV/SLK WITH NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001-002-
005-006-008>012-016>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
007.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026>031-
034-035-087.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

119 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL EXIT EAST AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTERS INTO THE REGION...THOUGH
GIVEN THAT THE LOW WILL BE DEEPLY OCCLUDED...AIRMASS ADVECTION
SHOULD NOT BE THAT COLD INITIALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF -6C TO -10C WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM THE 40S MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
COLD AIR...NOT EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL PRESENT MUCH OF A
PROBLEM. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEING JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF THE LAKES.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE FROM LAKE
ERIE TO MERGE WITH A LARGER COASTAL LOW...HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF VSBY BELOW 1SM...WITH PERIODS OF 1/4SM TO
1/2SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH CEILINGS OR VERTICAL VISIBILITY
AT OR BELOW 400 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ARE ALSO
LIKELY. A SECONDARY EPISODE OF LIGHTER SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER
LOW CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. A
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CAUSE MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY...MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SLGT CHC OF SNOW.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ001>008-
010-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ044.

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...THOMAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

540 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A RICKETY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EASTERN
APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS WILL PROMPT A BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
BEFORE CROSSING THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE MID-EVENING FOLLOWED
BY A RESURGENCE IN NW WINDS AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SUITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR-TERM MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NSSL WRF SUGGEST A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS IN
PASSING OF THIS FRAIL FRONT BETWEEN 500PM-900PM ACROSS OUR CWA.
QPF VALUES WILL REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY LOW AND NO GUARANTEE OF RAIN
MEASURING BEYOND A TRACE BUT TIME SECTIONS SHOW ADEQUATE RH AND
WEAK LIFT WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIDDLE EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING CHILLY TEMPERATURES INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...MAINLY NEAR
30 DEGREES OVER THE FAR W-NW INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 30S NEAR AND
ALONG THE COAST. BRISK NW WINDS WILL PREVENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FROM DIPPING AS LOW THEY COULD UNDER CLEARING SKIES...BUT
FACTORING IN THE WIND SHOULD PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPS/WIND CHILLS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S WITH FIRST LIGHT OF SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN THE COAST BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME...LONG WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST AT 500MB...WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO AS MUCH AS
576DM ON SUNDAY. THIS GENERALLY WOULD SUPPORT WARM AND QUIET
WEATHER...BUT A FEW CAVEATS WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOL...AND
BRING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGES DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL
STORM...COOL NORTH WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE. THESE TWO WILL WORK AGAINST ONE ANOTHER...AND THE END
RESULT WILL BE A NEAR CLIMO DAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN THE
FAR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN DURING THE NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS STILL
EXPECTED. THIS WILL HELP MINS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING...LOWER IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SETTING UP WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS
PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. DECENT MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ
OVERTOPPING THE WEAKENING RIDGE INCREASES ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ADVECTION OF THE MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. GUIDANCE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL TIMING OF FEATURES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH ITS LIFT AND
PRECIP POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN THIS DIRECTION BASED OFF RECENT ECMWF
PERFORMANCE...AND HENCE WILL SHOW POP INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD IN THE WEST...LOW CHANCE EAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN SATURDAY THANKS TO BREAKDOWN
OF COOL NORTH SURFACE FLOW...BUT OVERALL HEATING WILL BE
INCREASINGLY LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S...LOW 60S FAR SOUTH. VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE ANTICIPATED INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND AN ATYPICAL DIURNAL
CURVE IS LIKELY WITH TEMPS FALLING JUST AFTER DARK...AND THEN
RISING SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. EARLY MINS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO SE CANADA MON-TUE...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. A DEEP AND
RATHER MOIST SW TO WSW FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW...BECOMING MORE OR
LESS STATIONARY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR S MID WEEK. A VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TUE...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUE NIGHT AND WED. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING WED AND
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE DAY
AND WED NIGHT.

THUS...A VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD AND ALL OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING THE MON THROUGH WED TIME
FRAME. THE CHARACTER OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRATIFORM AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS S AND
THEN E OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD THE GFS VERIFY...THEN THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WOULD TRACK FURTHER N AND WITH THAT THERE MAY BE AT
LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM SECTOR
WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. SINCE THE TIMING AND
JUXTAPOSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES MAY STILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY...
I WAS HARD PRESSED TO GO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST AREAS DURING ANY
12-HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...SINCE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AND THE STRONGEST SW LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BE REALIZED TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WILL BUMP POPS UP TO
CATEGORICAL DURING THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THU TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES FRI.

ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS MON THROUGH WED WILL KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS THERE
WILL BE NO INFLUX OF COLDER AIR EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
WED...IT WILL BRING COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS LATE WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SECONDARY FRONT...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WILL SPILL INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BRIEF STRATA CU CEILING
WILL OCCUR BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MODERATE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP ON MONDAY WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH EVENING NOT ONLY FOR SETTLING SEAS
FROM THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM...BUT A RESURGENCE OF NW WINDS
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE NC WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT
TO 6AM TO ADDRESS FREQUENT 25 KT NW WIND GUSTS EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY...THE INCREASING OFFSHORE WIND LATE TONIGHT WILL
COINCIDE WITH AN ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDE TO PRODUCE LOW-WATER
CONDITIONS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT AND AN MWS WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TO GET THE WORD OUT TO MARINERS. MODERATE W-WSW
WINDS INTO EVENING WILL TURN TO NW LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS. IT APPEARS THE NW SURGE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AND THE ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY.
NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE 0-20
NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT AGITATED
AS W-NW WINDS INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL SE WAVES FROM THE PREVIOUS
STORM SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS CREATES GUSTY
N/NW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS EARLY SATURDAY...EASING THROUGH THE DAY TO
AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE NE BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 2-4
FT EARLY WILL QUICKLY FALL TO 1-3 FT...LOWEST NEAR SHORE...DUE TO
THE OFFSHORE FETCH. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER FROM NE TO SE...AND FINALLY S BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 KTS...BUT INCREASE LATE
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...UP TO 15-20 KTS. THESE WINDS HELP
DRIVE SEAS UPWARDS THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING 4-6 FT AT THE VERY END
OF THE PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.

LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. SW WINDS ON MON WILL SHIFT TO NW AND THEN N LATE
MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEARBY WITH WINDS VEERING TO NE DURING TUE AND THEN ALL
THE WAY AROUND TO SE AND S TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SW. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NE OF THE WATERS...
WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY WED AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS
PERIOD ARE EXPECTED MON WHEN SW WINDS...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT...WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND MON NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ONCE AGAIN.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/RJD/JDW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

328 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THU TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES FRI.

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW STRATUS THAT
PLAGUED THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS MORNING IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. A
FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BUT OTHERWISE
SOME CLEARING APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING
WORSE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CIGS AT THIS TIME. AFTER FROPA...
THE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS.
KILM CONTINUES TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...SO HAVE KEPT GUSTY
CONDITIONS HERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN LIKELY
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...MJC/BJR
MARINE...MJC/RJD/JDW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

558 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE QUICKLY...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT EVENING RUSH FOR MANY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE STORM LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF MODERATE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS
PUSHING THRU THE SUSQ VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW WAS REPORTED AT IPT LATE THIS AFTN AND WEB CAMS SHOW A
COATING TO AN INCH WAS FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
THIS AFTN. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BACK EDGE OF STEADY SNOW
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE CANCELED THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP ADV GOING
ACROSS OUR NE COUNTIES FROM TIOGA SOUTH THRU SCHUYLKILL...WHICH
WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW OVERNIGHT ASSOC
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NE PA TONIGHT.

HAVE NOTICED INCREASING WGUSTS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS EARLY
THIS EVENING /JST GUSTED TO 35KTS AT 22Z/. EXPECT WINDS TO RAMP UP
MARKEDLY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS PRES GRAD
TIGHTENS WEST OF DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM. WILL LIKELY BE
INCREASING WGUSTS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADV
CRITERIA BASED ON A QUICK LOOK AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA.

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE A FEW LINGERING
-SHSN ACROSS THE W MTNS. TEMPS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS TO L20S
FOR MOST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TIGHT P-GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING INTENSE LOW WILL
HELP TO CREATE A STRONG NWRLY LLVL WIND MAX ON SAT. VERTICAL
MIXING OF UP TO JUST AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL EASILY TAP 25-25 KT
WINDS AND TRANSPORT THEM TO THE SFC IN FREQUENT GUSTS. THESE WINDS
MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OCCASION /ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA/...BUT VAST MAJORITY OF GUSTS WILL BE BELOW ADV
CRITERIA.

PLENTY OF STRATOCU WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE REGION
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON AS A WELL DEFINED 850-500 THERMAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SE TO NW
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SUSQ VALLEY...BUT FEEL COLDER WITH THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW FOR
SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE STATE. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES BASED ON PRIME
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...IN THE FORM OF THE FRESH SNOW
COVER...LIGHT WIND...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS LATE SAT
NIGHT COULD DIP TO NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CWA.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
THE NW MTNS.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY MODERATE SNOW JUST EAST OF THE OFFICE.
WHILE THIS AREA IS SEPERATE FROM THE PCPN WITH THE COASTAL STORM...
STILL EXPECT THIS BACK EDGE TO SLOW THIS EVENING. FAR WESTERN
AREAS LIKE JST AND BFD SEEING SOME LIGHTER SNOW...AS WINDS ARE
NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW THERE. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES A MAJOR STORM
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. SOME CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

GUST WNW WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS SATURDAY WITH VFR TO LCL MVFR CIGS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. BECOMING MAINLY VFR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR NO SIG WX.
MON...AM WINTRY MIX TO RAIN. FROPA. -SHSN WEST LATE.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR -SHSN PSBL NW.
WED...ANOTHER WINTER STORM POSSIBLE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ037-042-
053-058.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

350 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 350 PM CST/
STRATUS FIELD MELTING AWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE IN OTHER AREAS IT IS HOLDING STEADFAST. RAP SUGGESTS THAT
STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EVEN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FOG
ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT HAVE NOT GONE AS
BULLISH AS HE RAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.

QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN AS TO HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL LINGER DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURE
WARMING 2-3 DEGREES C IN THE 18 TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF LATE DAY HEATING...WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HIGHS. HAVE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER DEVELOPING IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START TO BE A TRANSITION PERIOD TO WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG JET STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD SHARPEN ALONG DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH. SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE SYSTEM AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...AND GOOD
DYNAMIC NUDGE WILL DEVELOP AS DRY SLOT PUSHES NORTH THROUGH
NEBRASKA. AS THIS FIRST LOBE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED...AND WHILE
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...MAY END UP WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. WILL GET SECONDARY AREA WITH
MAIN DIV Q/PV ADVECTION LATER IN NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD
MAKE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BECOMING MORE STRATIFORM BACK IN
DEFORMATION THROUGH WESTERN CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO FIND A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BY LATE NIGHT GIVEN THE 800 HPA LI NEAR
ZERO. THIS COULD PRESENT A SMALL WILD CARD TOWARD TYPE IF DEEPER
CONVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...FOR THE MOST PART...HARD
TO PICTURE A GREAT DEAL OF SNOW WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE INTENSITY IN THE FAR WEST AND SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AIDING IN MIX/CHANGE
POTENTIAL. INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE JAMES
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...PERHAPS A BIT WESTWARD...WITH BULK OF
ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION FORCED ALONG AND BEHIND FEATURE.

MODEL TRENDS ARE STARTING TO GRAVITATE TOWARD A SOLUTION CENTERED
AROUND AN ECMWF/GFS TRACK TO WAVE AS IT PUSHES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE NORTHERN AND
CANADIAN GLOBAL THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS. FOLLOWING ALONG THE GENERAL
GUIDANCE...WAVE WILL PUSH VERY CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA...
PERHAPS A BIT TO THE EAST...COLLAPSING THE INVERTED TROUGH CLOSER TO
I29 BY MIDDAY. FAIRLY SOLID LOOK TO DRY SLOT PUSHING NORTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND TRENDED BACK POPS
TOWARD SCATTERED FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE THUNDER AS WELL. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE WEST
AS TROWAL BECOMES FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED BY EARLY SUNDAY...
WITH LIFT INITIALLY INDICATED ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK. HOWEVER...
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF
THE TROWAL AS SUNDAY GOES ON...WITH LOW EPV SUPPORTING AN ENHANCING
FRONTAL CIRCULATION...THE FOCUS FOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD COLLAPSING
SNOW BAND ON LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAIRLY STRONG LIFT
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INDICATED...BUT NOT TOO DEEP A LAYER...
AND EFFICIENCY MAY SUFFER A BIT FOR THAT. SNOW RATIO IN MAX BAND
FROM 12-16 TO 1. RESULTING 8-12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE INVERTED TROUGH AS SYSTEM WRAPS UP
LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 925 HPA
WIND...SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT THREAT OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
SHARPENED UP WITH OVERALL SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
THE BAND...AND WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER SHARPENING ONCE DETERMINATION
OF THE LONGER LINGERING TROWAL SNOWFALL CAN BE DETERMINED.

IN TERMS OF HEADLINE DECISIONS...FAIRLY OBVIOUS NEED TO DELAY THE
START TIME IN THE WESTERN GROUP BY AT LEAST 6H...WITH VERY LITTLE
SNOWFALL AND THE WIND LIKELY NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE UNTIL WELL AFTER
06Z. CONSIDERED DELAYING START TO THE MORE EASTERN GROUP AS WELL FOR
SIMILAR REASONS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR EAST WHICH WILL NOT SEE
INVERTED TROUGH PASSAGE AND INCREASE IN WINDS UNTIL TOWARD EVENING
ON SUNDAY. DID SPLIT OFF THE FAR EASTERN AREAS AND DELAY START UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND ADDED IN A FEW COUNTIES BORDERING THE
EAST EDGE OF THE EXISTING WATCH...MAINLY WHERE SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 4
INCHES WOULD BE COMBINING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 TO
40 MPH. ALSO...GIVEN THE WINDS WHICH ARE LIKELY TO ONLY BE ON A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND BY EARLY MONDAY...EXTENDED THE WATCH THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY...BUT WORST CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY TO BE EXPECTED FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF SW MN BY MONDAY MORNING.

CHANGES TO THE TUE THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD LIMITED DUE TO
ATTENTION ON THE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES OF THE SHORTER TERM.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH AMPLIFICATION OF
SYSTEM DRAWING DOWN SOME MUCH COLDER AIR. MAY BE A LITTLE MORE MESSY
THAN CURRENTLY GIVING CREDIT FOR...WITH AMPLIFICATION STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT 925 HPA BEHIND SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE TIME...INCREASED POPS A TOUCH OVER THE
INITIALIZATION SLIGHTS/LOW CHANCE. /CHAPMAN

&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW LYING STRATUS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH RAP
SOUNDINGS WHICH CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL SATURATION ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SATURDAY. MAY SEE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STRATUS APPROACH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT SHOULD FILL BACK IN FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE
THEREFORE LOWERED CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY WAY TO SHAKE THE STRATUS ON SATURDAY WOULD BE
THROUGH ADVECTION...THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ071-072-097.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ080-081-098.

NE...NONE.
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
SDZ040-054>056-059>062-064-065-068.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
SDZ066-067-069.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ038-039-050-052-053-057-058-063.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1113 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATE FOCUSES ON CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOT
HANDLING WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN EDGE OF FORECAST AREA TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WITH
REINFORCING SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO SHAKE THE CLOUD COVER. MAY SEE
CLOUDS TRY TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT IN
GENERAL...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SHAKE THE STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS TO A DEGREE OR
TWO TO ISOTHERMAL FROM 925 HPA.

HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANGES WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW LYING STRATUS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH RAP
SOUNDINGS WHICH CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL SATURATION ALONG AND
EAST OF THE JAMES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SATURDAY. HAVE THEREFORE
LOWERED CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ONLY WAY TO SHAKE THE STRATUS ON SATURDAY WOULD BE THROUGH
ADVECTION...WHICH IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THAT WOULD OCCUR OR NOT.

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 444 AM CST/
MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE STRATUS AND HOW FAST IT
DISSIPATES/ADVECTS OUT. NO MODEL EXCEPT THE RAP HAS A REAL HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS WITH NAM AND GFS ERODING STRATUS THIS MORNING WHILE RAP
KEEPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. THEREFORE...GIVEN THICKNESS
AND WIDESPREAD NATURE OF STRATUS HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAP THROUGH 21Z
AND THEN USED NAM AND GFS 925 MB WINDS TO GIVE INDICATION OF WHEN
FLOW HAS ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT TO ADVECT CLOUDS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS KEEP CLOUDS EAST OF THE JAMES ALL DAY WITH THE SW MN
AND NW IA LIKELY NOT CLEAR UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. WITH CLOUDS MOST
OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH. BASICALLY WENT
ISOTHERMAL FROM 925 MB EAST OF THE JAMES WHICH KEEPS HIGHS FROM
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES...MORE SUNSHINE
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ENHANCE MIXING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.
SO HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AROUND HON AND MHE TO UPPER 40S IN
GREGORY COUNTY.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-097.

NE...NONE.
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR SDZ040-054>056-059>062-064-065-068.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR SDZ038-039-050-052-053-057-058-063.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

315 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
315 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

SURFACE MAP HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. DRY FEED OF
AIR/SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WAS ERODING STRATUS DECK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WAS NOW CONFINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND
NORTHEAST IA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE SITTING
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

08.12Z MODELS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK. GENERALLY TOOK A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS.

STRATUS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
SWING BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL ADVECT STRATUS BACK INTO THE
AREA. NAM 0-5KM RH FIELD SHOWS THIS TREND. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
FOG ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL BE CALMER CLOSER TO THE RIDGE
AXIS LEADING TO A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP OFF. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FOG COULD GET LOCALLY DENSE WITH VSBY UNDER A 1/4 MILE.
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS RAMBUNCTIOUS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY... EXPECTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LEADING TO
CONTINUED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASING FLOW
MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO MIX THIS MOISTURE FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES A WINTRY
MIX FOR THE AREA...STARTING OFF IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY AND ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS A SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MIX...SPREADING EAST OF THE RIVER BY DAY BREAK. WITH DECENT
SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/10 TO
2/10 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATER
SUNDAY MORNING/SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS INTO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION FOR A TOTAL TRANSITION TO RAIN
MAY BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI/TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE A MIX MAY HANG
AROUND LATER. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY HEFTY AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WITH 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH RANGE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGY ISSUES WHICH IS
TALKED ABOUT BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM SWINGS NORTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN/NORTHWEST
WI SUNDAY EVENING...LOOKING FOR A DRY SLOT TO WORK INTO THE
AREA...LEADING TO A DIMINISHING RAIN AND INTO A MORE DRIZZLE
SCENARIO EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A SWITCHING TO A LIGHT
SNOW/CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN UNDER THE LOW.

PLAN ON LINGERING DEFORMATION BAND LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
PULLS OFF INTO ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE PERHAPS AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90.

THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE QUITE A WINTRY MIX AND
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION WITH THE BIGGEST
CONCERN BEING THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FEELING IS THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED AND WILL PASS THIS CONCERN ONTO THE NIGHT SHIFT FOR
FURTHER ASSESSMENT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
315 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE 08.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE 08.12Z
ECMWF/GFS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 08.12Z GEM.
HOWEVER...ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST DECENT LIFT AND
SATURATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL INCREASE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 08.12Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AIR FILTERING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND CAUSE PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1031 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

MVFR STRATUS DECK IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR KLSE...LIKELY BY 17Z.
KRST ON THE OTHER HAND DOES NOT LOOK AS LIKELY TO CLEAR AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WINDS IN THE STRATUS LAYER ARE TURNING
EASTERLY...AND BY 21Z WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY. AS SUCH...THE
CLEARING LINE MAY JUST GET TO KRST...THEN THE STRATUS WILL START
MOVING BACK IN. AMENDED THE TAF TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-21Z...THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN PARTIAL
CLEARING WOULD OCCUR. THE STRATUS LAYER WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE AREA HEADS OFF TO THE EAST. THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
THE STRATUS TO MOVE BACK INTO KLSE...SOMETIME BETWEEN 06-09Z. ONE
OF THE BIG QUESTIONS IS IF THE BASE OF THE STRATUS LAYER WILL
LOWER DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUGGEST
THAT...THUS HAVE PUT IN SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST AT KRST LATE
IN THE NIGHT. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER CEILINGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ANY LOWER THAN IFR AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THE STRATUS DECK TO STICK AROUND MUCH OF SATURDAY
MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST APPROACHING THE TAF SITES TOWARDS 18Z...THOUGH.

ONLY OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT AT KRST
SATURDAY MORNING.

.HYDROLOGY...
315 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1/2 INCH TO FALL ON EXISTING
SNOWPACK AND FROZEN GROUNDS SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS. AS A RESULT...PLAN FOR
RISES ON AREA RIVER WAYS. IF RAINFALL SHOULD BECOME MORE
SIGNIFICANT...RIVER FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ICE JAMS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED. IN
ADDITION...LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ON
AREA ROADWAYS WHERE DRAINAGE IN CONSTRICTED.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
315 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY....DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1031 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
1031 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

1031 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE WIND FLOW IN THE STRATUS DECK IS BEGINNING TO TURN
EASTERLY AND WILL TURN SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. 12Z DVN SOUNDING SHOWED
THAT THE STRATUS DECK WAS QUITE THICK...ABOUT 3000 FEET COVERING
THE LAYER BETWEEN 925-850MB. THUS...A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST SEEMS
IN ORDER IN HANDLING THE STRATUS. 08.12/13Z HRRR AND RAP RUNS
SUGGEST THE CLOUD DECK WILL HANG UP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN JUST GET STUCK
THERE FOR TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS THEN EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE 925MB WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
DEPARTING. AS SUCH...HAVE GREATLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT...SPREADING IT EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE TO FIT THIS IDEA AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...MAY HAVE TO ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREAS SINCE THEY WILL BE
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A RAPID
TEMPERATURE DROP-OFF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 AM...

COMPLEX...STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION...RAIN...FLOODING POTENTIAL...ICE POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CLOSED
LOW WILL DEVELOP WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT/STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM CAN BE BROKEN DOWN INTO THREE PARTS - THE
INITIAL WAVE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THERMODYNAMICS/SLOPING
FRONTOGENETICS...DRY SLOT BEHIND THIS REGION REMOVING ICE FROM THE
CLOUD...THEN THE DEFORMATION/COLD AIR ADVECTIVE REGION THAT WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW.

STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS EVIDENCED VIA WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE 280-295K SFCS...MAXED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 12Z SUN-00Z MON. SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST RUNNING X-SECTION SHOWS
A STRONG NEARLY UPRIGHT FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE LOW LEVEL WARMING...WITH A 55 KT 850 MB JET DRIVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 POINTS TO A BAND OF
PCPN DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS REGION...BUT THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN WITH
THE NAM/GFS/EC MOVES IN FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF SUNDAY.
TIMING OF THE PCPN IS SIGNIFICANT AS WARMING AT THE SFC AND A LOFT
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO PARTIAL/FULL
MELTING AS THE PCPN MOVES IN...SO WHAT WOULD FALL WILL LIKELY BE
LIQUID. EARLY MORNING TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM. HOWEVER...MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BE ROAD TEMPS...AND THOSE
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S. SO...RAIN FALLING AT 36 OR SO
WOULD STILL BE ABLE TO FREEZE ON UNTREATED ROADS AND OTHER SFCS.
THIS BRINGS A REAL THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING AS A
RESULT. UNSURE IF THIS THREAT WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE OPTED TO TURN OVER TO JUST RAIN FOR THAT
PERIOD.

BEHIND THIS WAVE OF PCPN COMES A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. THIS INTRUSION
OF DRIER AIR WILL REMOVE MUCH OF THE ICE BEARING PORTIONS OF THE
CLOUD...LEAVING THE LINGERING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME
DRIZZLE. THE 00Z MODELS FAVOR A MOSTLY EVENING TIME FRAME FOR THIS.

AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE WEST-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALONG WITH COLDER AIR...THE SATURATION DEEPENS AGAIN...WITH ICE NOW
PART OF THE PCPN EQUATION. WHILE THE MAIN DEFORMATION AREA WOULD
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA //IF IT KEEPS ITS CURRENT
FORECASTED TRACK//...THERE WOULD BE SOME BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
THAT WOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS WOULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

THIS STORM WILL BRING VARIOUS WEATHER TYPES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON THE REGION. EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAKES
REFINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH DIFFICULT. CURRENTLY SEE THE THREAT FOR
SOME ICE EARLY ON SUNDAY AS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT HESITANT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
FURTHER EVALUATION LATER TODAY MAY NECESSITATE ONE. DO BELIEVE SOME
HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SUNDAY...WHETHER IT STARTS AS A WATCH
OR ENDS UP AS AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
300 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE LINGERING MONDAY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. INVERTED TROUGH AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL HELP SPARK THE LIGHT SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN AGREE ON A COUPLE QUIET DAYS
FOR TUE/WED...BUT THEN BRING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
REGION WED NIGHT/THU NIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND MORE NORTH WITH ITS SFC LOW. IT
KEEPS MOST OF ITS QPF NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EC/S MORE
SOUTH AND SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW IN FOR THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. MODEL DIFFERENCES LOWERS
CONFIDENCE...SO WILL OPT FOR CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
1031 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

ONLY OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT AT KRST
SATURDAY MORNING.

.HYDROLOGY...
300 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

RAINFALL UPON SNOWPACK AND FROZEN GROUNDS WILL RESULT IN NEARLY FULL
RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS ON SUNDAY. AT THIS
MOMENT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK FROM 1/2 TO 1
INCH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RISES ON AREA RIVER WAYS. IF
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT...RIVER FLOODING BECOMES A
GREATER CONCERN. THE POSSIBILITY FOR ICE JAMS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
300 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RIECK/AJ
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY....RIECK