Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/05/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME AS ABUNDANT
MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE LOWER 20S F NE OF TUCSON TO THE
LOWER 40S F ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE
NEARLY 5-15 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 03/12Z KTWC SOUNDING
TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS NEAR 0.45 INCH. THE PROFILE EXHIBITED A
VERY DRY SURFACE-700 MB LAYER...AND THE COLUMN WAS SATURATED ABOVE
600 MB. 03/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED 565 DM LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER FAR NRN CALIFORNIA...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST OFF
THE NRN/CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT-MODERATE GENERALLY SWLY
FLOW WAS OVER SE AZ.
BASED ON THE 03/12Z NAM AND RUC HRRR...AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS...
OPTED TO REDUCE INHERITED POPS ESPECIALLY FOR LOCALES BELOW 5000
FEET TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS MORNING
APPEARS TO BE WEST OF TUCSON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINTAINED
CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MAX QPF/S EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR SO.
BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM..AND COCHISE COUNTIES WITH
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE
TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO PREVAIL MON-THUR.
THEREAFTER...GFS/ECWMF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS FRI-SAT. THE BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THUS...AT THIS TIME
APPEARS THAT THE MAIN IMPACT ON SE AZ FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME
BREEZINESS AND A MARKED COOLING TREND.
COOLER TODAY VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED SAT AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH TEMPS
TODAY TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL. WARMER MON-TUE THEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WED-THUR. COOLING TREND TO THEN
OCCUR FRI-SAT...WITH HIGH TEMPS SAT FORECAST AT THIS TIME TO BE
NEARLY 10 DEGS F OR SO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...BKN-OVC CLOUDS GENERALLY 8-12K FT AGL THRU THIS EVENING
THEN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST 06Z-12Z MONDAY. ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA MAINLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL ABOUT 04/06Z THEN DRY
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN
10 KTS THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING OR 04/12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS
INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL OCCUR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
840 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
.UPDATE...NO FORECAST UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AND
FOOTHILLS HAVE DECREASED FROM THE SPEEDS WE WERE SEEING EARLIER.
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IS GOING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT. FIRST LOOK AT EVENING MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS AT LOCAL AIRPORTS ARE TRANSITIONING TO THEIR
TYPICAL DIURNAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS. NEW MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER THAN WHAT WE HAD
EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE...LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW. NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW HAS INCREASED TO AROUND
40 KTS JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH
OBSERVED ATOP LOVELAND PASS. GUSTS IN THE 30S WERE COMMON ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO PUSHED ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDER WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLES. LASTEST RAP CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 30 KTS DURING THE EVENING...THUS WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A RESULT WITH DRAINAGE PATTERN
PREVAILING. WAVE CLOUD ALONG FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. LATEST WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN THE WAVE CLOUD THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS
SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR. ON TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A
BIT MORE WESTERLY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING. SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH PERHAPS
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE CLOUD ALONG FOOTHILLS. NAM CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW OF AROUND 35 KTS...COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AGAIN ACROSS THE RIDGES AND HIGHER
FOOTHILLS. ACROSS PLAINS....LATEST MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PUSH
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AS FAR WEST AS THE FOOTHILLS. NOT ALOT OF
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH...SO TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 60S IN THE DENVER VICINITY.
LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. A VERY
WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS WEAK THROUGH THE PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL TEND TOWARDS DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A BRIEF SHOT OF
UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS. ON THURSDAY...NORMAL
DUIRNAL TRENDS ARE LIKELY. CONCERNING MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK
PRETTY DRY ON ALL THE MODELS. THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR POPS...WILL KEEP A
TAD IN OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COOLER THAN
TUESDAY`S. THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE A
CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL UTAH AROUND MID DAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING AT
12Z...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS
THE CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...THE ECMWF OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF KANSAS...THE CANADIAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF COLORADO. AT 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE GFS STILL SHOWING A WEAKENING CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. OVERALL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR. THE COLD AIR IS
STILL INDICATED TO GET INTO THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING WITH THE MOISTURE IS NEARLY 24 HOURS LATER
THAN YESTEDAY`S 12Z RUNS INDICATED. THE CANADIAN STILL LOOKS TO
GIVE THE PLAINS A DECENT SNOWFALL...THE REST NOT. OVERALL...IT IS
A CONVOLUTED MESS. HOPEFULLY AS TIME MOVES FORWARD...THE MODELS
IMPROVE CONCERNING CONSENSUS. WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE
FOR NOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
AVIATION...WESTERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS BJC AND DIA WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS. LIGHTER WINDS NOTED AT APA. WINDS TO
CONTINUE WESTERLY AT DEN AND BJC INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING AND BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY 03Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT WESTERLY AT APA...THEN SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AS
THE WAVE CLOUD CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PREVAIL BY 16Z...AND COULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 20Z.
SPEEDS OF AROUND 8 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY
ON MONDAY. BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OPEN THE
WEEK...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE
ONSET TIME OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS.
REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NY AND PA. HRRR EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL SHOW LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE FORECAST RADAR RETURNS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS WE WILL LOWER POPS A LITTLE FURTHER.
AS OF 924 AM EST...ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THE SHORT-WAVE SHOWS UP WELL ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH IN THE W/NW FLOW. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SHARPEN...AND THE NAM/GFS/CAN GUIDANCE SHOWS SCT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH THE CLIPPER WILL
ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST OF THE
OCEAN CYCLONE WILL ACT AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE STARTING THE DAY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CLIPPER APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS IN THE -12C TO -16C RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F IN THE VALLEYS...AND UPPER TEEN TO
M20S OVER THE MTNS.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL
WITH A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...FAVORED THE NAM SOLUTION AND THE CANADIAN REGIONAL
TONIGHT. ALSO LEANED CLOSER TO THE HIGHER NAM OR MET MOS POPS. THE
SHORT-WAVE WITH THE CLIPPER PHASES INTO THE DOWN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH...AND THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH...AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE KICK OFF A ROBUST AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF LIKELY AND HIGH
CHC POPS HEAVILY BASED ON THE NAM. GREAT LAKES MOISTURE MAY BE
UTILIZED...AND A MODEST BAND OF SNOW MAY EXTEND DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY OVERNIGHT IMPACTING THE CAPITAL REGION WITH ANOTHER
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. ALSO...SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOWFALL MAY
MATERIALIZE BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...NRN
BERKS...AND WRN DACKS.
BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW DEEP SATURATION TO 12-15 KFT AT KALB WITH
DECENT SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE NAM. SNOW
RATIOS OF 15-20:1 WOULD YIELD UP TO AN INCH OR SO AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION /ROUGHLY A HALF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS/...AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN /HIGHEST
TOTALS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND WRN DACKS/.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT BAND MAY FORM
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM . THIS BAND WOULD INITIALLY IMPACT THE
WRN DACKS...AND THEN SHIFT S/SE TOWARDS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
OUR CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH FOR A HEADLINE...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL FOR HERKIMER
COUNTY IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.
MON-MON NIGHT...THE WORK WEEK OPENS WITH BLUSTERY AND COLD
CONDITIONS...AS A DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE...AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO. W/NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30-35
MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND WRN DACKS
WILL END DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS /HIRES WRF AND CANADIAN REGIONAL/ ARE SHOWING
A LAKE EFFECT BAND IN THE W/NW FLOW POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE NRN CATSKILLS. THE INLAND
EXTENSION OF THIS BAND IS IN QUESTION BASED ON THE PAST CSTAR
RESEARCH. ALSO THE BAND IS TRANSITORY...AND DRIER AIR MAY GET
ENTRAINED NIXING THE INLAND EXTENSION. THE INVERSION HEIGHTS ON
THE KUCA NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING DUE REMAIN AT 8-10 KFT AGL WITH
MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. TYPICALLY LAKE BANDS IN OUR AREA
PER THE CSTAR RESEARCH FAVOR CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. THE BANDS
MAY STAY TRAPPED CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.
IT APPEARS EXTREME SRN HERKIMER AND NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY
MAY GET GRAZED WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL. THIS POTENTIAL
LAKE BAND WILL GET MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE DAY. COATINGS TO
HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED WESTERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TACONICS...BERKS...AND SRN GREENS OF VT. 1-3
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS.
IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME...850 TEMPS FALL TO -15C TO -20C
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL WITH TEENS TO M20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND L20S TO
NEAR 30F IN THE VALLEY AREAS. TEMPS MAY STEADY OR FALL DURING THE
DAY.
DECREASING WINDS AND FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH LOWS ZERO TO 12 BELOW OVER THE
ADIRONDACK PARK...AND SRN GREENS...SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE
ELSE...EXCEPT 10-15F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. WIND CHILL VALUES FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE SRN DACKS.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING IN OVER THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL BE RACING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE CNTRL-
ERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY NIGHTFALL. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AGAIN WITH
THIS CLIPPER TUE NIGHT INTO WED. CHC POPS WERE USED FOR LIGHT SNOW
HERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE REGION UNDER
A LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE
WEEK.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OFF TO OUR EAST ON WEDNESDAY TAKING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION/SNOW
WITH IT. FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE GFS AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF INDICATES AN UPPER LOW SHOULD CLOSE OFF ON
FRIDAY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW YORK METRO REGION WITH CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OVER DELMARVA BY 12Z/FRIDAY...WITH THE LOW THEN HEADING
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY OVER LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE GFS PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND TRACKING IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS SHOWN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND
THE 12Z/ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTIONS. THE GFSENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE A LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL LOW POSITIONS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE FAVORED THE LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION MOVING THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SET UP WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE ECMWF IS
CATCHING ON TO SOMETHING FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT.
MORE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES LOOKING AT AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. SHOULD WARM TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
NORMALS FEB 5TH-9TH:
ALBANY: HIGHS LOWER 30S. LOWS MID TEENS.
GLENS FALLS: HIGHS LOWER 30S. LOWS UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
POUGHKEEPSIE: HIGHS UPPER 30S. LOWS UPPER TEENS.
BENNINGTON: HIGHS LOWER 30S. LOWS MID TEENS.
PITTSFIELD: HIGHS AROUND 30. LOWS MID TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS AFTN. SKIES ARE NEARLY CLEAR
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTN AT KPSF...OTHERWISE ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID AFTN.
SKIES WILL BECOME BKN-OVC BY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE BEST CHC APPEARS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 22Z-23Z UNTIL 08Z-10Z WITH CONTINUED VFR CIGS. WHILE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY SNOW
SHOWER...THE TIMING AND EXTENT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME TO ACCURATELY
FORECAST IN THE TAFS.
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE BAND COULD REACH INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL ONLY GO
WITH A VCSH RIGHT NOW FOR KALB/KPSF FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10
KTS. AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
STRONGER GUSTS WITH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS...ESP
FOR KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT. MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHSN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHSN IN THE AM AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI. VFR/MVFR/IFR. CHC -SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH COLD TEMPS
AND LIGHT SNOW EVENTS MAINLY IMPACTING THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
SOME HYDRO GAGES ARE EXPERIENCING ICE EFFECTS AROUND THE HSA. THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ICE TO REFORM AND THICKEN ON ALL
BODIES OF WATER THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
FOR SPECIFIC RIVER AND LAKE FORECASTS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
920 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 824 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
EARLIER COLD FRONT HAS NOW REACHED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...
AND THE PREVIOUSLY CLEAR AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 HAD RAPIDLY FILLED IN
WITH CLOUDS. WEAK RIDGE AXIS FROM KANSAS CITY NORTHEAST TO THE
QUAD CITIES WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AFTER 3 AM.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING IN IOWA...
WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ILLINOIS RIVER IN A COUPLE HOURS...
BUT CLOUDS FURTHER WEST SHOULD STILL YIELD MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERALL FOR TONIGHT.
HAVE SENT SOME GRID UPDATES TO UPDATE THE LATEST TRENDS...BUT
CHANGES ARE TOO MINOR FOR A ZONE UPDATE.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 920 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
HAVE UPDATED ALL TAFS TO ADDRESS THE CEILING ISSUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HARD TO PICK OUT SOMEWHAT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE
TO HIGHER CLOUDS...BUT LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THE MVFR STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM KUIN-KPIA...AND
UPSTREAM MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
DUE TO DRIER AIR. AWIPS TIME-OF-ARRIVAL TOOL SHOWS ABOUT A 3 HOUR
WINDOW OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BEFORE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE
FROM IOWA. LATEST RAP MODEL SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILINGS AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT KPIA/KBMI...BUT WENT WITH
HIGHER CEILINGS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THAT TIME.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
THE ISSUES THIS FORECAST WILL BE A TUESDAY CLIPPER...A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN A SPRING-LIKE
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH NW IL LATER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE WEEK...EVEN THROUGH
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. WILL USE A BLEND AND KEEP RELATIVE CONSISTENCY
WITH THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL IL APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF LOW STRATO-CU ADVANCING EAST OF
THE IL RIVER AS OF 230PM. WE CAN SEE THE GROUND THROUGH THE
CLOUDS...INDICATING THE MOISTURE LAYER IS RATHER THIN...BUT
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRAP THAT MOISTURE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP TONIGHT/S SKY FORECAST ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF IL ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR ANY OF OUR COUNTIES BEING FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH FROM GALESBURG TO CHAMPAIGN. NO ACCUMULATION WILL
REACH THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRIMARY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN N IL AND WIS. WE WILL SEE GUSTY W-SW WINDS
DEVELOP TOWARD MID-DAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...MAKING HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FEEL A LITTLE COLDER.
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO WORK TO SET THE STAGE FOR A GENERAL
WARMING TREND FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE SEEN TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT UNDER RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...DRAGGING A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT ACROSS ILLINOIS. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE EXTENSION OF
THAT FRONT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...POSSIBLY DIMINISHING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES LATE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURS NIGHT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS
MORNING. FREEZING RAIN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ICING ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH DURING THAT TIME. THE SURFACE MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING
IN THE NORTH AS MID LEVELS UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WET BULB BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE LOWEST 100 MB...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
GROUND TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DESPITE WEAK WARM ADVECTION EVEN AT
THE SURFACE. ANY ICING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM GALESBURG TO CHILLICOTHE.
BEFORE THE PRECIP ARRIVES WED NIGHT...WE EXPECT STEADY OF SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS IN OUR WESTERN AREAS...BUT POSSIBLY SOME COOLING
STILL IN OUR EASTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES MAY REMAIN CLEAR LONGER
INTO THE NIGHT. AS PRECIP EXPANDS EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING...OUR
NORTHEAST MAY SEE SOME OF THAT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF
I-74. THE COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP...IF
ANY...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION FOR WED NIGHT AND
THURS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH FOR NOW.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT ON SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A SURFACE
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NW IL LATER ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS. SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS MARGINAL THIS FAR NORTH RIGHT NOW...BUT
INSTABILITY PARAMS DEFINITELY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE DRY AIR INTRUSION SHUTS DOWN THE PRECIP. SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW IN OUR AREA BEHIND THIS LOW. IF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST...THAT MAY CHANGE. FOR NOW...WE EXPECT
ALL RAIN FROM THE SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT SYSTEM.
DRY CAN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
824 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 824 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
EARLIER COLD FRONT HAS NOW REACHED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...
AND THE PREVIOUSLY CLEAR AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 HAD RAPIDLY FILLED IN
WITH CLOUDS. WEAK RIDGE AXIS FROM KANSAS CITY NORTHEAST TO THE
QUAD CITIES WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AFTER 3 AM.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING IN IOWA...
WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ILLINOIS RIVER IN A COUPLE HOURS...
BUT CLOUDS FURTHER WEST SHOULD STILL YIELD MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERALL FOR TONIGHT.
HAVE SENT SOME GRID UPDATES TO UPDATE THE LATEST TRENDS...BUT
CHANGES ARE TOO MINOR FOR A ZONE UPDATE.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 534 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND ABOUT TO ENCOMPASS
KSPI/KDEC/KCMI...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL BE
ABLE TO ERODE...AS A RIDGE AXIS DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. CEILING GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP MODEL KEEPS ANY VFR
CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF KPIA THIS EVENING AND SHOWS THE
STRATOCUMULUS EXPANDING WITH TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE
MVFR CEILINGS GOING ALL NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO BRING A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
THE ISSUES THIS FORECAST WILL BE A TUESDAY CLIPPER...A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN A SPRING-LIKE
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH NW IL LATER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE WEEK...EVEN THROUGH
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. WILL USE A BLEND AND KEEP RELATIVE CONSISTENCY
WITH THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL IL APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF LOW STRATO-CU ADVANCING EAST OF
THE IL RIVER AS OF 230PM. WE CAN SEE THE GROUND THROUGH THE
CLOUDS...INDICATING THE MOISTURE LAYER IS RATHER THIN...BUT
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRAP THAT MOISTURE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP TONIGHT/S SKY FORECAST ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF IL ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR ANY OF OUR COUNTIES BEING FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH FROM GALESBURG TO CHAMPAIGN. NO ACCUMULATION WILL
REACH THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRIMARY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN N IL AND WIS. WE WILL SEE GUSTY W-SW WINDS
DEVELOP TOWARD MID-DAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...MAKING HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FEEL A LITTLE COLDER.
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO WORK TO SET THE STAGE FOR A GENERAL
WARMING TREND FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE SEEN TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT UNDER RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...DRAGGING A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT ACROSS ILLINOIS. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE EXTENSION OF
THAT FRONT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...POSSIBLY DIMINISHING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES LATE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURS NIGHT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS
MORNING. FREEZING RAIN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ICING ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH DURING THAT TIME. THE SURFACE MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING
IN THE NORTH AS MID LEVELS UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WET BULB BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE LOWEST 100 MB...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
GROUND TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DESPITE WEAK WARM ADVECTION EVEN AT
THE SURFACE. ANY ICING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM GALESBURG TO CHILLICOTHE.
BEFORE THE PRECIP ARRIVES WED NIGHT...WE EXPECT STEADY OF SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS IN OUR WESTERN AREAS...BUT POSSIBLY SOME COOLING
STILL IN OUR EASTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES MAY REMAIN CLEAR LONGER
INTO THE NIGHT. AS PRECIP EXPANDS EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING...OUR
NORTHEAST MAY SEE SOME OF THAT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF
I-74. THE COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP...IF
ANY...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION FOR WED NIGHT AND
THURS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH FOR NOW.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT ON SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A SURFACE
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NW IL LATER ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS. SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS MARGINAL THIS FAR NORTH RIGHT NOW...BUT
INSTABILITY PARAMS DEFINITELY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE DRY AIR INTRUSION SHUTS DOWN THE PRECIP. SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW IN OUR AREA BEHIND THIS LOW. IF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST...THAT MAY CHANGE. FOR NOW...WE EXPECT
ALL RAIN FROM THE SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT SYSTEM.
DRY CAN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
535 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
THE ISSUES THIS FORECAST WILL BE A TUESDAY CLIPPER...A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN A SPRING-LIKE
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH NW IL LATER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE WEEK...EVEN THROUGH
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. WILL USE A BLEND AND KEEP RELATIVE CONSISTENCY
WITH THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL IL APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF LOW STRATO-CU ADVANCING EAST OF
THE IL RIVER AS OF 230PM. WE CAN SEE THE GROUND THROUGH THE
CLOUDS...INDICATING THE MOISTURE LAYER IS RATHER THIN...BUT
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRAP THAT MOISTURE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP TONIGHT/S SKY FORECAST ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF IL ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR ANY OF OUR COUNTIES BEING FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH FROM GALESBURG TO CHAMPAIGN. NO ACCUMULATION WILL
REACH THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRIMARY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN N IL AND WIS. WE WILL SEE GUSTY W-SW WINDS
DEVELOP TOWARD MID-DAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...MAKING HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FEEL A LITTLE COLDER.
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO WORK TO SET THE STAGE FOR A GENERAL
WARMING TREND FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE SEEN TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT UNDER RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...DRAGGING A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT ACROSS ILLINOIS. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE EXTENSION OF
THAT FRONT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...POSSIBLY DIMINISHING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES LATE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURS NIGHT.
HOWEVER...PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS
MORNING. FREEZING RAIN MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ICING ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH DURING THAT TIME. THE SURFACE MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING
IN THE NORTH AS MID LEVELS UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WET BULB BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE LOWEST 100 MB...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
GROUND TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DESPITE WEAK WARM ADVECTION EVEN AT
THE SURFACE. ANY ICING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM GALESBURG TO CHILLICOTHE.
BEFORE THE PRECIP ARRIVES WED NIGHT...WE EXPECT STEADY OF SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS IN OUR WESTERN AREAS...BUT POSSIBLY SOME COOLING
STILL IN OUR EASTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES MAY REMAIN CLEAR LONGER
INTO THE NIGHT. AS PRECIP EXPANDS EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING...OUR
NORTHEAST MAY SEE SOME OF THAT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF
I-74. THE COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP...IF
ANY...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION FOR WED NIGHT AND
THURS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH FOR NOW.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT ON SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A SURFACE
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NW IL LATER ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS. SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS MARGINAL THIS FAR NORTH RIGHT NOW...BUT
INSTABILITY PARAMS DEFINITELY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE DRY AIR INTRUSION SHUTS DOWN THE PRECIP. SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW IN OUR AREA BEHIND THIS LOW. IF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST...THAT MAY CHANGE. FOR NOW...WE EXPECT
ALL RAIN FROM THE SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT SYSTEM.
DRY CAN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHIMON
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 534 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND ABOUT TO ENCOMPASS
KSPI/KDEC/KCMI...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL BE
ABLE TO ERODE...AS A RIDGE AXIS DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. CEILING GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP MODEL KEEPS ANY VFR
CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF KPIA THIS EVENING AND SHOWS THE
STRATOCUMULUS EXPANDING WITH TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE
MVFR CEILINGS GOING ALL NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO BRING A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AS HAS BEEN REPEATEDLY MENTIONED IN RECENT FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEE LITTLE PROGRESSION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND YET ANOTHER CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE NWLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THIS SYSTEM TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN. SO...WHILE IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT THE NRN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER...WITH PERHAPS...AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE FAR
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FINALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS FROM THE WEST COAST TO ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT OVER THE
PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN INCREASING TREND...THROUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DUE TO PACIFIC SYSTEMS...RATHER THAN
ARCTIC-SOURCED SYSTEMS. SO...WITH THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES...
THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR RAIN. ALSO...THE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE-BREAKUP JAMS ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS THE RECENT COLD WEATHER HAS ALLOWED THE
RIVERS AND STREAMS TO FREEZE OVER.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND POTENTIALLY
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
* LIMITED VSBYS IN SNOW DOWN UNDER 1 MILE AND LOWERING CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
* WIND DIRECTION CHANGES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE LIGHT SNOW HAS FINALLY ABATED ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THE
AFTERNOON AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS. THIS CLEARING LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20 KT RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE BIG CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS
NORTHERN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE LAST
FEW...AND ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD
RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW COULD EVEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
ROCKFORD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN VERY LOW VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE...AND POTENTIALLY DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. I HIT THE 18 UTC TAFS HARDER
AND LOWER VIS DOWN TO 3/4 OVERNIGHT. I ALSO MOVED UP THE START TIME
BY ABOUT AN HOUR. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RAPID ONSET TO THE
SNOW...AND IT COULD EVEN BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE FLOW
WILL TURN OFF THE LAKE...WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SETUP STILL EXISTS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS IN
PLACE TO CONTINUE TO SEE LOW VISIBILITIES IN SHSN. IT APPEARS THE
SNOW WILL ABATE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...KGYY MAY CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME SHSN INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF VIS UNDER 1 MILE
AND POTENTIALLY DOWN TO 1/4SM IN +SN FOR A PERIOD.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ON MONDAY.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SNOW AFT 04Z MON.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...PSBL MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
219 PM CST
A WAVE TRAIN OF LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER OR NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. EACH OF
THESE WILL LEAD TO REGULAR WIND SHIFTS BUT NONE PROMOTING ANY GALE
THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING THERE IS A THREAT OF FREEZING SPRAY DUE TO
THE STRONG WINDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND
GUSTS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE SEEN ALONG THE
IL NEARSHORE DUE TO THE LONGER FETCH REALIZED. THE NEXT LOW WILL
PASS OVER THE LAKE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY IN A
WEAKENING TREND. DURING THURSDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR STRONGER SYSTEMS WHICH COULD PROMOTE GALES...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
ICE IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF IL WAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE
NORTHWEST WINDS. IN GENERAL NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE ICE
COVERAGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-
ILZ013-ILZ014...10 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6
PM MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1125 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 824 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN
MISSOURI HAS BEEN HANDLED FAIRLY WELL ON THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP
RUNS. HEAVIER SNOW AXIS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD AREAS ALONG/WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT THE SNOW AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
OCCURRING FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE INCOMING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. GREATEST PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WILL
BE THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM...WITH THE EASTERN CWA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ZONES/GRIDS WERE UPDATED EARLIER TO REFLECT THESE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS...AS WELL AS ADJUST THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
LARGEST AREA OF SNOW HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HAVE HAD SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AT KPIA/KSPI WITH VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DOWN TO 2-3
MILES. RADAR AND MODEL DATA SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN
SOUTHEAST IOWA WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. CEILINGS AS OF LATE HAVE MAINLY BEEN
VFR...BUT SHOULD SOON FALL TO MVFR LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
PARENT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN NORTHERN ILLINIOS.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
A COMBINATION OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL
KEEP LIGHT SNOW IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEIR TRACKS WILL ALSO
BE FAVORABLE FOR KEEPING COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WE
WILL WARM TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A MYRIAD OF SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM
EXTENDING FROM NW IL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL KEEP THAT NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE...SENDING THOSE
SHORTWAVES DIRECTLY AT AMERICA/S HEARTLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE HAVE A TRAILING SECONDARY WAVE TRIGGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
OUR NW COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THAT AREA OF SNOW WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED
FOR A FEW HOURS. THEN A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PASS ALONG THE ILLINOIS-MISSOURI
BORDER LATER TONIGHT. ASSUMING THAT TRACK TONIGHT...THE BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW /ONE INCH/ WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN SPRINGFIELD AND
ST LOUIS...WITH UP TO AN INCH REACHING NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SNOW
TOTALS OF ONE HALF INCH COULD EXTEND AS FAR AS PEORIA TO LINCOLN
TO MATTOON AND LAWRENCEVILLE. NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE...MAINLY A DUSTING
IS EXPECTED. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN GEM/HRRR/RAP ALL POINT TOWARD
THAT GENERAL SCENARIO.
THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY MORNING EVERYWHERE BUT
POSSIBLY ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER FROM DANVILLE TO LAWRENCEVILLE.
OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS BUT BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
MONDAY WILL SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER SHORTWAVE PASS
ACROSS ILLINOIS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL RESIDE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL COINCIDE BEST WITH MOISTURE
AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS
ACROSS CENTRAL IL BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUE...WITH AN
INTENSIFICATION OF PRECIP JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW IN OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MON AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF
SNOW SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CHAMPAIGN TO EFFINGHAM...WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIP WEST OF A LINE FROM BMI TO TAYLORVILLE. THE SNOW
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING NEAR LWV.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A BRIEF APPEARANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE PUSHED
ASIDE BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MINNESOTA ACROSS
WISCONSIN...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS WISC AS WELL...ALONG WITH
THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW IN OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
A LINE FROM PEORIA TO CHAMPAIGN. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS MODELS...PUSHING IT FARTHER NORTH NOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING BUT MAINLY
RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THAT FRONT
MAY CHANGE ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE EVENING BACK OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW BY LATE EVENING...AS TEMPS DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THURSDAYS HIGHS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT STILL INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S. SATURDAY WILL
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A MORE PROMINENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE TRENDS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS COME IN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
520 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS AT 20Z. STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS
AFTERNOON AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 HAVE REMAINED CLEAR TODAY.
LATEST RAP 13 RELATIVE HUMIDITY PLOTS KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS
SATURATED THROUGH THE EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT THIS AFTERNOON...STATUS MAY MOVE BACK SOUTH
OR REFORM AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS NORTH OF I-70 THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 20S
ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST...NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
OCCURRING AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH MID DAY
TUESDAY BEFORE COOL ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER. THE HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S.
53
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I 70. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IN THE
PACIFIC ADVANCES QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
IT WILL RESULT IN A RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING...SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARYING ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE WEEKEND TROUGH THAT
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN REGARD TO HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS IN PROXIMITY
TO THE SHARP TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS KEEP THIS TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH
WHICH RESULTS IN A WEAKER AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ADVANCING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE THE UKMET/GEM/EC CONTINUE MORE IN LINE WITH
PAST SOLNS IN EJECTING THE PRIMARY TROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MORE CONTINUITY WITH WITH
PREVIOUS FCSTS AND LEAN TOWARDS THE EC WHICH STILL BRINGS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT AND COLDER
AIR WORK INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WY...PRECIP SHOULD END BY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRIER
AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND MIDDLE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...READINGS COOL INTO THE 40S
FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. 63
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PASS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER THE AREA
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...CALM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS IN ACROSS THE
REGION.
ACH
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
405 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW STILL IN PLACE
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER NW KANSAS.
OTHER THAN PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN NW FLOW TONIGHT...THERE IS
WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED CONDITIONS TONIGHT VERSUS
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW. THERE MAY BE WEAK
FORCING WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
H7-H5 VORT MAX PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...I AM ANTICIPATING MILD/DRY CONDITIONS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RESPONSE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE
MODELS SUGGEST INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS...AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
LIKELY FORCE H85 AND H7 FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WHICH WOULD MAKE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AS FAR NORTH OF THE CWA
UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
IN THE EXTENDED(FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF STRONG H5 TROUGH DURING THE
WEEKEND AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/WINTER STORM IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH RESPECT TO 12Z OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF/GEM AND GEM MEAN INDICATING A FARTHER
EAST MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA WHILE GFS AND
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING A FURTHER WEST SYSTEM
THAT IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS
POINT...HARD TO PICK A FAVORITE CLUSTER WHILE TOTALLY IGNORING OTHER
POSSIBLE SCENARIO. THE ECMWF GROUP WOULD SUPPORT A SIG PRECIP THREAT
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WHILE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH LESS
PRECIP AND OVERALL SMALLER IMPACT. FOR THE TIME BEING...THINK
KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE IS WARRANTED AND STAYING TOWARDS
CONSENSUS DATA WARRANTED UNTIL BETTER SIGNAL DEVELOPS AND CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF SYSTEM BEFORE
SNOW DEVELOPS AS SYSTEM EXITS AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. WHILE THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...FOR REASONS MENTIONED
ABOVE FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY TO REALLY KEY IN ON THIS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 401 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. LIGHT WEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY LATE MORNING AT
BOTH SITES AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...032
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
905 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
SUBTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE FIRST PERIOD /EVENING AND OVERNIGHT/
FORECAST PRIMARILY TO HANDLE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/SKY COVER/WIND
CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITHT HE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. THE 5KM DOWNGRADED NAM-WRF...3KM HRRR AND 2.5 KM GFS
LAMP SEEM TO HANDLE THE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS THE BEST
THIS EVENING. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WILL BE
TRANSITORY...BUT WE MAY SEE MORE FROST OVERNIGHT SHOULD THE CLOUDS
THIN SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
MINOR CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS BARELY MEASURING...AND THEN ONLY HERE AND
THERE. WOULD EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY 00Z...BUT SOME MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE LIGHT RAIN...MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST OR
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD UP THE OHIO VALLEY...THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED MORE EAST THAN SOUTH...BASICALLY
DRAGGING ITS HEELS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE WIND
SHIFT A BIT...BUT IT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEN AT
LEAST A TRANSIENT INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD NEAR 12Z
TUESDAY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CALL. WENT NEAR
CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BIT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IF CLOUDS/FOG PERSIST IT MAY BE TOO COOL.
THE MODELS AGREE IN QUICKLY DEVELOPING RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF WHAT SHOULD BE THE FINAL CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS WEEK.
THIS CLIPPER WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING IN
OUR AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED...HAVE NO PROBLEM GOING WITH THE WARMER 12Z CONSENSUS FOR
HIGHS.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS HIGH WILL LINGER A
BIT LONGER DUE TO A TRANSITION TOWARD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS
ALSO AGREE ON A TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS FOR
THURSDAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z THURSDAY.
STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...BUT AN EAST WIND MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT COOL...BUT DID NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FROM IT. WILL HAVE WARM ADVECTION ONGOING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO WOULD BET ON THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PAH FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING ON THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE GFS HANGS THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY...THUS
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...AND KEPT FRIDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL HELP BRING MORE MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH ECMWF OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 00Z
MONDAY...AND GFS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE SAME
TIME. BOTH MODELS SHOW A LITTLE PRECIP IN AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER
WITH EACH RUN...SO WILL KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. BOTH MODELS SPREAD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FA...AND THIS KEEPS SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR
REGION MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
WENT WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS AT KCGI/KPAH BETWEEN
08-16Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THOSE SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN
04-11Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS
EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFT 04-05Z...THEN SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST AFT 15-16Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
418 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
WILL GET RID OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOON. UPDATE TO THE
AVIATION SECTION AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SURPRISE 1-2 INCH
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...IN SOME BANDS.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED THE ACTIVITY ENDING RAPIDLY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SO MAY END THE ADVISORY MUCH
SOONER THAN 6 AM IN THOSE AREAS. SNOW SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE GONE
BY DAYBREAK AS IT DEPARTS THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KY...SO A
DRY QUIET WX DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING TONIGHT.
SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WARMER
CONDITIONS...SO RAIN IS FORECAST. MAINTAINED OUR LIKELY POPS FOR
NOW. SYSTEM WILL DEPART EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND ECS MOS FOR TEMPS...WITH A MIX OF
2M MODEL TEMPS AND WEIGHTED OUTPUT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
QUASI ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BY SATURDAY AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED...DEPICTING THE
TROUGH WELL DOWN INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE WEAKER GFS...WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL RAISE TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE WESTERN TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH PRECIP SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL. WILL KEEP POPS ONLY
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR SATURDAY...SINCE MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SOME THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...BRINGING
HIGHER THETA/E AIR NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME STRATO-CU THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS AND RUC DATA. THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...IN TURN WE MAY BE LOOKING AS SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS. NW
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
311 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS HOUR TO REFLECT THE BUILDING
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST AS THIS FIRST WAVE
EXITS THE AREA. RAISED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS WITH AROUND AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED. ALSO FINE TUNED THE FORECAST INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY FOR THE NEXT WAVE COMING IN FROM THE STL AREA AROUND DAWN...
BASED ON THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR SCENARIOS. THIS ONE SHOULD TARGET
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALSO PROBABLY IMPACT THE
REST OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. ANTICIPATE UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH OF SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHERE ANOTHER INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP WATCHING IT TRACK THIS WAY IF IT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEALTHY ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONSIDER /RE/HOISTING
A SHORT DURATION ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR DOWN THERE...THOUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN SPS FOR THE FAR EAST AND A NEW ZFP/HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1142 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO CREPT UP A BIT IN
PLACES...ALLOWING FOR MORE OF MIX OF FLURRIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS A
BIT BETTER IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ALSO GONE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT
CLIPPER TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAWN INTO
THE MID-MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT THIS AS ALL SNOW FOR NOW...HOWEVER
IF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN THERE
MAY BE SOME RAIN TO CONTEND WITH AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
LAST BAND OF DECENT SNOW IS WORKING EAST OUT OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE
MORE ENHANCED BANDS...GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM PIKEVILLE TO JACKSON
COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK DUSTING TO QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS BAND WILL
BE EXITING IN THE NEXT HOUR...AND WITH LITTLE OR SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED
ADVISORY HEADLINES. DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING THE REFREEZE POTENTIAL OF MELTED SNOWFALL AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN MANY VALLEY REACHED OR EXCEEDED THE FREEZING MARK AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTH...AND
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE TOWARDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW.
THIS BAND LOOKS TO TARGET THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 09 AND
12Z...AND THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AREA IN TANDEM WITH A SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. EXPECT UP TO
A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND AROUND A QUARTER INCH TO
THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN SNOW EARLY AFTERNOON...IT HAS STARTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN AS MODELS DEPICTED. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES...SUSPECT THAT WHAT FALLS THERE WILL
INDEED BE MIXED WITH OR IN THE FORM OF RAIN LATE TODAY. THIS ROUND OF
PRECIP EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIP
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES....ON
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW MANY PLACES WILL ACTUALLY MEASURE. IN LIGHT OF THIS...WILL
UPDATE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO ALLOW A STEPPED EXPIRATION FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING. HOPEFULLY...WHATEVER OCCURS ON SUNDAY MORNING
CAN BE HANDLED WITH AN SPS IF NECESSARY. THE SNOW ON SUNDAY SHOULD
THEN EXIT TO THE EAST...LEAVING JUST FLURRIES AROUND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE STEEP THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THOSE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH
PAST THE -10C LEVEL...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LARGELY
SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY WITH ONLY A PARTIAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPSLOPE/ELEVATION ENHANCEMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH...SOME ELEVATION DEPENDENCE MAY OCCUR
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTH BEING
ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE RELAXING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A RIPPLE IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIP TO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH A STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. THUS...EXPECT ENOUGH
WARM AIR TO PUNCH NORTH THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN
MONDAY EVENING. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT A FEW VALLEYS MAY DROP DOWN
TO FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES IN CAUSING SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN...HOWEVER THAT IS LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT. SOME SNOW MAY
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW WE LOSE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER AT THE
SAME TIME SO WE MAY JUST GO OVER TO SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THIS WOULD ALL TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR
EAST.
A QUIET PERIOD APPEARS IN STORE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT SENDING THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW JUST TO
OUR NORTH. WE WILL MODERATE AS WELL...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
50 BY THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WITH THIS. AFTER A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY...WE WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 50S ON
SATURDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
THE CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD STAY UP AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOWARDS DAWN WITH RENEWED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. WITH THIS...EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WITH VIS FOLLOWING SUIT AS
THE SNOW MOVES IN. AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BY MID-MORNING...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AT AROUND 1500 FT TO HANG ON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
HEAVIER SNOW BAND...EARLY TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM....ABE
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
150 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS HOUR TO REFLECT THE BUILDING
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST AS THIS FIRST WAVE
EXITS THE AREA. RAISED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS WITH AROUND AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED. ALSO FINE TUNED THE FORECAST INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY FOR THE NEXT WAVE COMING IN FROM THE STL AREA AROUND DAWN...
BASED ON THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR SCENARIOS. THIS ONE SHOULD TARGET
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ALSO PROBABLY IMPACT THE
REST OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. ANTICIPATE UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH OF SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHERE ANOTHER INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP WATCHING IT TRACK THIS WAY IF IT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEALTHY ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONSIDER /RE/HOISTING
A SHORT DURATION ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR DOWN THERE...THOUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN SPS FOR THE FAR EAST AND A NEW ZFP/HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1142 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO CREPT UP A BIT IN
PLACES...ALLOWING FOR MORE OF MIX OF FLURRIES...DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS A
BIT BETTER IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ALSO GONE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT
CLIPPER TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAWN INTO
THE MID-MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT THIS AS ALL SNOW FOR NOW...HOWEVER
IF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN THERE
MAY BE SOME RAIN TO CONTEND WITH AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
LAST BAND OF DECENT SNOW IS WORKING EAST OUT OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE
MORE ENHANCED BANDS...GENERALLY ALIGNED FROM PIKEVILLE TO JACKSON
COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK DUSTING TO QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS BAND WILL
BE EXITING IN THE NEXT HOUR...AND WITH LITTLE OR SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED
ADVISORY HEADLINES. DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING THE REFREEZE POTENTIAL OF MELTED SNOWFALL AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN MANY VALLEY REACHED OR EXCEEDED THE FREEZING MARK AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTH...AND
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE TOWARDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW.
THIS BAND LOOKS TO TARGET THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 09 AND
12Z...AND THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AREA IN TANDEM WITH A SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. EXPECT UP TO
A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND AROUND A QUARTER INCH TO
THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN SNOW EARLY AFTERNOON...IT HAS STARTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN AS MODELS DEPICTED. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES...SUSPECT THAT WHAT FALLS THERE WILL
INDEED BE MIXED WITH OR IN THE FORM OF RAIN LATE TODAY. THIS ROUND OF
PRECIP EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIP
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES....ON
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW MANY PLACES WILL ACTUALLY MEASURE. IN LIGHT OF THIS...WILL
UPDATE THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO ALLOW A STEPPED EXPIRATION FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING. HOPEFULLY...WHATEVER OCCURS ON SUNDAY MORNING
CAN BE HANDLED WITH AN SPS IF NECESSARY. THE SNOW ON SUNDAY SHOULD
THEN EXIT TO THE EAST...LEAVING JUST FLURRIES AROUND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE STEEP THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THOSE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH
PAST THE -10C LEVEL...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LARGELY
SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY WITH ONLY A PARTIAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPSLOPE/ELEVATION ENHANCEMENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH...SOME ELEVATION DEPENDENCE MAY OCCUR
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTH BEING
ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AS MEAN
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE
FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS RISE.
THERE WILL BE ONE LAST CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
WITH THIS AS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN WITH THE
SYSTEMS THAT AFFECTED THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN KY...WITH
RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...WILL RETURN AT THE END OF
THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
THE CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD STAY UP AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOWARDS DAWN WITH RENEWED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. WITH THIS...EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WITH VIS FOLLOWING SUIT AS
THE SNOW MOVES IN. AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BY MID-MORNING...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AT AROUND 1500 FT TO HANG ON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
HEAVIER SNOW BAND...EARLY TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM....SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 03 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1100 PM EST Sat Feb 2 2013
Current forecast continues to be on track this evening. IR
satellite imagery continues to show breaks in the clouds over our
western and southwestern sections this evening. This has allowed
temperatures to cool into the lower 30s. Elsewhere, temperatures
generally remained around 30 with some upper 20s in the Bluegrass
region.
Next clipper system is on its way toward the Ohio Valley this
evening. The feature is currently over northern Missouri with a
swath of snow ahead and just to the east of the feature. Last
several runs of the HRRR and RAP models suggest that this swath of
snow will generally head southeast and only affect our
western/southwestern areas. The latest NAM runs remain quite
consistent in bringing the snow band southeast into our
southern/southwestern areas as well, but also expand the snowfall to
the east and northeast after sunrise as the wave deepens slightly as
it rounds the base of the upper trough axis.
Based on upstream radar trends, trajectory analysis suggests that
the snow band will move through St. Louis shortly and then enter
western KY around 06Z...and then into central Kentucky in the 07-09Z
time frame. Upstream reports so far have been very light with only
trace to 1/2 inch amounts being reported northwest of St. Louis.
However, the band does seem to be increasing in intensity somewhat.
Latest NAM/GFS guidance continues to produce a little over a tenth
of an inch of QPF overnight, mainly along a corridor from Hancock
county southeastward through Russell county. Given upstream
observations and trends, this looks fairly reasonable. With surface
temperatures expected to remain in the upper 20s to around 30 across
the southwest and a little bit of a warm nose aloft, snow ratios
will probably be around 13-15:1. This combined with the fast
movement of the wave will keep snowfall amounts on the low side.
Still think that an inch or less of accumulation looks like a good
bet. However, some isolated higher amounts in the Hancock to
Russell county corridor can not be ruled out where some heavier
bands may traverse the area. The combination of the snowfall along
with subfreezing temperatures supports keeping the traveler`s
advisory going overnight.
Update issued at 744 PM EST Sat Feb 2 2013
Area radars show that the light snow has come to an end across the
area this evening. IR satellite imagery shows a little bit of
clearing moving into the western sections of the forecast area. So,
areas west of I-65 will see a period of clear skies which should
allow temperatures to fall off a little quicker than forecast.
Mostly cloudy skies with a few scattered flurries will be possible
in the Bluegrass region over the next hour or so. With
precipitation coming to an end, the Winter Weather Advisory was
allowed to expire at 700 PM EST.
After a very brief break in the weather this evening and into the
early overnight period, attention now turns to a clipper system to
our northwest. Mosaic radars show this wave pushing down through
southern Iowa and into northern Missouri at this time. The short
term guidance continue to be in good agreement with bringing this
clipper into western Kentucky late tonight and then through our CWA
probably after 2-3 AM EST. While the model data suggests that our
western/southwest sections would take the brunt of this clipper,
radar signatures and real time observations generally suggest that
our whole CWA would be in play for snow overnight. Given the fast
movement of the system, a quick hitting shot of snow seems very
likely, but the speed at which the system is moving will likely cut
down accumulations. Current thinking is that an inch or less of
snowfall will be likely with this system coming through, though some
areas in our southwest that have missed out on the snow of late, may
get their turn tonight.
With the light snow expected along with surface temps below
freezing, the snow will accumulate, so some slick spots are likely
to develop late tonight. For this reason, a traveler`s advisory has
been issued for the entire forecast area for the overnight and
Sunday morning time frame.
Will continue to monitor upstream observations and trends this
evening. If a more significant snowfall threat becomes more clear,
a new winter weather advisory may be required in later forecast
updates.
&&
.Short Term (Tonight through Sunday night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 2 2013
Within a broad cyclonic northwestern flow across the region, a
series of weak disturbances will threaten to bring continued
flurries or light snow showers through mid-day Sunday.
Currently, a weak trough is moving across southern Indiana.
Flurries, or very light snow showers will continue over southern
Indiana and overspread the Bluegrass Region late this afternoon,
diminishing from west to east by early evening. Little or no
additional accumulations are expected, although some of the heavier
snow showers may produce a dusting across the Bluegrass this evening.
Will allow our winter weather advisory to expire at 7 pm this
evening, when the last of our evening snow showers depart. Some
slightly cooler and drier air will briefly arrive later this
evening.
The last of our series of clippers will bring increasing cloudiness
and a chance of light snow across central Kentucky around or shortly
after dawn. Precipitation amounts will not amount to much. But
forecast soundings, even at Bowling Green, hint at some light snow.
If this weak system organizes and tracks over central Kentucky, an
addition half inch of snow is possible.
Expect clearing skies by Sunday afternoon. Brisk west winds will
develop as high pressure builds across the southern plains. Winds
will increase to 10 to 20 mph by afternoon with some gusts near 25
mph. As high pressure moves overhead Sunday night, expect mostly
clear skies and chilly temperatures, especially across snow covered
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass.
.Long Term (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 2 2013
The clipper system for Monday evening still looks on track as far as
timing goes. The latest NAM has come in more robust with QPF
amounts but still nothing greater than a quarter of an inch. P-type
profiles look a little warmer than previously advertised with the
majority of locations over southern Indiana/central KY starting out
as rain Monday afternoon. Some southern Indiana locations may see a
mix of rain and snow. As colder air pushes in Monday night, precip
type will change over to either some light snow before ending or
perhaps some light freezing drizzle or sleet depending on how fast
moisture aloft decreases. If a snowier soln works out, still looks
like southern Indiana/northern KY could see 1-2 inches of snow.
However, the latest model soundings indicate a slightly warmer soln
resulting in mostly cold rain over the area with a mixed bag of
precip to end the event Monday night. Stay tuned!
Another surface ridge edges into the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday, shutting off all precipitation. With clear skies and the
surface ridge nearby, Wednesday morning will be rather chilly, with
lows in the 20s to perhaps upper teens. Heights will begin to
rise ahead of the next system on Wednesday into Thursday, which
should help temperatures moderate into the upper 40s and lower 50s
by Thursday.
Another quick-moving shortwave will induce a surface low across the
southern Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday. This system will
drive a cold front through the Ohio Valley early Friday morning.
The precipitation looks to be mostly rain with this disturbance as
it barrels through. Slightly cooler air will filter in behind the
front for Friday, as temperatures drop back into the mid and upper
40s.
&&
.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Sun Feb 3 2013
Main challenge is once again timing and intensity of snow as another
clipper races ESE through the Ohio Valley. Upstream obs around STL
show a decent snow shield with IFR or even LIFR conditions. However,
this could be quite localized and sneak in between BWG and SDF as it
moves through in the pre-dawn hours.
Will advertise IFR conditions in BWG starting around 09Z, as the
snow in these clippers has been quick to knock down visibilities.
Think most of the action will stay south of SDF and LEX, but have
gone with MVFR conditions there, with SDF just barely going into
fuel-alternate.
Once the upper impulse is to our east, conditions should improve to
VFR on gusty WNW winds around midday. LEX could hang on to high-end
MVFR. Light winds and clearing skies on Sunday evening.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........MJ
Short Term.......JSD
Long Term........AMS
Aviation.........RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1223 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WELL EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. A COLD...BRISK FLOW WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL FORECAST. A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRY ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ME AND
SOUTHEASTERN NH THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ACROSS REGION AS OCEAN LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST.
830 AM UPDATE...SKIES ARE SUNNY IN MANY AREAS AND PARTLY SUNNY IN
ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE MORE
OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE NOW JUST OFF THE COAST. TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR
AND MOUNTAINS ARE A BIT COLDER THAN ORIGINAL FORECAST DUE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADJUST SKY...TEMP AND
DEW POINT FCST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY AS OCEAN LOW
DEVELOPS AND STARTS MOVING NORTHEAST.
UPDATE...BROUGHT LOW TEMPS UP ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR...WHERE
CIRRUS SHIELD IS KEEPING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY. HAVE ALSO
BLENDED IN THE LATEST HRRR POP TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN SN ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.
LATEST DATA FROM GYX 88D INDICATES SW MOVING ECHOES OVER THE
WATERS...ON A TRAJECTORY FOR COASTAL YORK AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.
THIS IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF NELY SURGE WORKING FROM DOWNEAST.
WHETHER OR NOT THIS MAINTAINS ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO WORK INLAND IS
STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HAVE MADE SURE THAT AT LEAST CHC POP IS
THERE FOR SERN NH AND SWRN ME THIS MORNING. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL
PLACES THE LEADING EDGE AT KPSM AROUND 16 OR 17Z...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN POP TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK LEAD S/WV TROF LIFTING THRU THE
LARGER ERN L/WV TROF IS SUPPORTING A WEAK LOW PRES SKIRTING THRU
THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUD SHIELD IS ROUGHLY BISECTING THE
CWFA...WITH VERY LIGHT SN OCCURRING ACROSS SERN NH AND EXTREME
SWRN ME. GENERALLY HAVE SCHC TO CHC POP FOR COASTAL ZONES
TODAY...AS OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LACKING.
ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE SFC TROF THAT EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW OF
THE WEAK LOW PRES CENTER. WINDS ARE NW AT MISM1...KLEW...AND KPWM.
WHILE AT KSFM AND IOSN3 WINDS ARE WSW. WITHIN THIS TROF...MORE
CONVECTIVE SHSN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AND PROPAGATING WITH THE LLVL
FLOW. SOME BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE PSBL IN ANY OF THESE
SHSN. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS HANDLING THIS FEATURE VERY WELL
THIS MORNING...WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF FEATURING HIGH POP
WITHIN THE TROF AXIS. HAVE STARTED POP GRIDS HERE AND BLENDED
TOWARDS THIS AFTN. AS STRONGER S/WV TROF OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
REIGNITES SFC CYCLOGENESIS S OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NLY AND NELY ACROSS THE CWFA AND WATERS.
MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR SHSN CONTINUING WITH THE WEAK SFC TROF AS
IT PUSHES BACK TO THE SW TODAY. THIS COULD KEEP THE NH SEACOAST
AND EXTREME SWRN ME IN THE SHSN A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE REST OF
THE COAST. HAVE LINGERED THE CHC POP IN THIS AREA INTO THE AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE SHSN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. A FEW
POCKETS WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WILL RADIATE WELL...AND LOWS WILL
APPROACH SUB-ZERO. THIS AFTN...CIRRUS SHIELD WILL PREVENT IDEAL
DIURNAL HEATING...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPR TROF CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MON. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHSN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE MTNS...WHERE DEVELOPING WLY
FLOW WILL SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SN. THE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WILL KICK SFC LOW PRES WELL OUT TO SEA THOUGH...AND HAVE CUT
BACK ON AREA OF CHC POP FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWFA. GREATEST
THREAT FOR STEADIER PCPN WILL BE ON THE MIDCOAST...WHERE LOW PRES
CUTTING WWD ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY
PASS CLOSER ENOUGH TO DOWNEAST MAINE TO BRUSH AREAS AROUND
PENOBSCOT BAY WITH -SN.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPR TROF...STRONG CAA KICKS IN EARLY MON.
DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO
THE SFC. ATTM GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS LOOK LIKELY...WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR HIGHER GUSTS DEPENDING ON EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF LOW PRES. THE CLOSER TO THE CWFA...THE TIGHTER THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ARCTIC AIR TO ENTER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING FULL FLEDGED STORM OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES FROM A
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL HANG UP
IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALL BETS ARE OFF LATE IN THE WEEK AS THERE ARE GREAT DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUN. THE GGEM AND GFS BRING A SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST EURO RUN IS MUCH MORE
WELL DEFINED WITH A STRONG EAST COAST LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST...WITH A BLOCKING
HIGH TO THE NORTH OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR THE DAY 6 PERIOD.
INTERESTED TO SEE IF THE 12Z RUNS HOLD ONTO THIS SLOW MOVING
FEATURE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS THIS MORNING ALONG
COAST. DIVIDING LINE WILL BE BETWEEN KCON AND KPSM...RUNNING ENE
THRU KAUG AND KRKD. N OF THIS LINE EXPECT NO PCPN...EXCEPT FOR
KHIE WHERE UPSLOPE SHSN WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS MORNING.
BECOMING VFR THIS AFTN
LATE SUN THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR IFR SN TO WORK INTO
KRKD IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OCEAN LOW PRES. MORE LIKELY IS THAT
BEHIND LOW PRES ON MON STRONG WLY WINDS DEVELOP...WITH GUSTS AOA
25 KT. UPSLOPE SHSN WILL BEGIN AGAIN FOR KHIE AND KLEB LATE SUN
THRU MON.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ATTM.
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL CREATE NE FLOW ON
THE WATERS THRU THIS AFTN. COULD SEE WINDS APPROACH SCA GUSTS
LATER TODAY AS A RESULT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT
MON...STRONG WLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTN. WINDS COULD GUST ABOVE GALE FORCE INTO TUE.
LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
848 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WELL EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. A COLD...BRISK FLOW WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM UPDATE...SKIES ARE SUNNY IN MANY AREAS AND PARTLY SUNNY IN
ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE MORE
OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE NOW JUST OFF THE COAST. TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR
AND MOUNTAINS ARE A BIT COLDER THAN ORIGINAL FORECAST DUE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADJUST SKY...TEMP AND
DEW POINT FCST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY AS OCEAN LOW
DEVELOPS AND STARTS MOVING NORTHEAST.
UPDATE...BROUGHT LOW TEMPS UP ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR...WHERE
CIRRUS SHIELD IS KEEPING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY. HAVE ALSO
BLENDED IN THE LATEST HRRR POP TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN SN ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.
LATEST DATA FROM GYX 88D INDICATES SW MOVING ECHOES OVER THE
WATERS...ON A TRAJECTORY FOR COASTAL YORK AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.
THIS IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF NELY SURGE WORKING FROM DOWNEAST.
WHETHER OR NOT THIS MAINTAINS ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO WORK INLAND IS
STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HAVE MADE SURE THAT AT LEAST CHC POP IS
THERE FOR SERN NH AND SWRN ME THIS MORNING. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL
PLACES THE LEADING EDGE AT KPSM AROUND 16 OR 17Z...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN POP TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK LEAD S/WV TROF LIFTING THRU THE
LARGER ERN L/WV TROF IS SUPPORTING A WEAK LOW PRES SKIRTING THRU
THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUD SHIELD IS ROUGHLY BISECTING THE
CWFA...WITH VERY LIGHT SN OCCURRING ACROSS SERN NH AND EXTREME
SWRN ME. GENERALLY HAVE SCHC TO CHC POP FOR COASTAL ZONES
TODAY...AS OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LACKING.
ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE SFC TROF THAT EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW OF
THE WEAK LOW PRES CENTER. WINDS ARE NW AT MISM1...KLEW...AND KPWM.
WHILE AT KSFM AND IOSN3 WINDS ARE WSW. WITHIN THIS TROF...MORE
CONVECTIVE SHSN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AND PROPAGATING WITH THE LLVL
FLOW. SOME BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE PSBL IN ANY OF THESE
SHSN. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS HANDLING THIS FEATURE VERY WELL
THIS MORNING...WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF FEATURING HIGH POP
WITHIN THE TROF AXIS. HAVE STARTED POP GRIDS HERE AND BLENDED
TOWARDS THIS AFTN. AS STRONGER S/WV TROF OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
REIGNITES SFC CYCLOGENESIS S OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NLY AND NELY ACROSS THE CWFA AND WATERS.
MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR SHSN CONTINUING WITH THE WEAK SFC TROF AS
IT PUSHES BACK TO THE SW TODAY. THIS COULD KEEP THE NH SEACOAST
AND EXTREME SWRN ME IN THE SHSN A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE REST OF
THE COAST. HAVE LINGERED THE CHC POP IN THIS AREA INTO THE AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE SHSN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. A FEW
POCKETS WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WILL RADIATE WELL...AND LOWS WILL
APPROACH SUB-ZERO. THIS AFTN...CIRRUS SHIELD WILL PREVENT IDEAL
DIURNAL HEATING...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPR TROF CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MON. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHSN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE MTNS...WHERE DEVELOPING WLY
FLOW WILL SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SN. THE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WILL KICK SFC LOW PRES WELL OUT TO SEA THOUGH...AND HAVE CUT
BACK ON AREA OF CHC POP FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWFA. GREATEST
THREAT FOR STEADIER PCPN WILL BE ON THE MIDCOAST...WHERE LOW PRES
CUTTING WWD ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY
PASS CLOSER ENOUGH TO DOWNEAST MAINE TO BRUSH AREAS AROUND
PENOBSCOT BAY WITH -SN.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPR TROF...STRONG CAA KICKS IN EARLY MON.
DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO
THE SFC. ATTM GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS LOOK LIKELY...WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR HIGHER GUSTS DEPENDING ON EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF LOW PRES. THE CLOSER TO THE CWFA...THE TIGHTER THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ARCTIC AIR TO ENTER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING FULL FLEDGED STORM OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES FROM A
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL HANG UP
IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALL BETS ARE OFF LATE IN THE WEEK AS THERE ARE GREAT DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUN. THE GGEM AND GFS BRING A SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST EURO RUN IS MUCH MORE
WELL DEFINED WITH A STRONG EAST COAST LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST...WITH A BLOCKING
HIGH TO THE NORTH OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR THE DAY 6 PERIOD.
INTERESTED TO SEE IF THE 12Z RUNS HOLD ONTO THIS SLOW MOVING
FEATURE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS THIS MORNING ALONG
COAST. DIVIDING LINE WILL BE BETWEEN KCON AND KPSM...RUNNING ENE
THRU KAUG AND KRKD. N OF THIS LINE EXPECT NO PCPN...EXCEPT FOR
KHIE WHERE UPSLOPE SHSN WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS MORNING.
BECOMING VFR THIS AFTN
LATE SUN THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR IFR SN TO WORK INTO
KRKD IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OCEAN LOW PRES. MORE LIKELY IS THAT
BEHIND LOW PRES ON MON STRONG WLY WINDS DEVELOP...WITH GUSTS AOA
25 KT. UPSLOPE SHSN WILL BEGIN AGAIN FOR KHIE AND KLEB LATE SUN
THRU MON.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ATTM.
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL CREATE NE FLOW ON
THE WATERS THRU THIS AFTN. COULD SEE WINDS APPROACH SCA GUSTS
LATER TODAY AS A RESULT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT
MON...STRONG WLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTN. WINDS COULD GUST ABOVE GALE FORCE INTO TUE.
LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
607 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WELL EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. A COLD...BRISK FLOW WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...BROUGHT LOW TEMPS UP ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR...WHERE
CIRRUS SHIELD IS KEEPING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY. HAVE ALSO
BLENDED IN THE LATEST HRRR POP TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN SN ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.
LATEST DATA FROM GYX 88D INDICATES SW MOVING ECHOES OVER THE
WATERS...ON A TRAJECTORY FOR COASTAL YORK AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES.
THIS IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF NELY SURGE WORKING FROM DOWNEAST.
WHETHER OR NOT THIS MAINTAINS ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO WORK INLAND IS
STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HAVE MADE SURE THAT AT LEAST CHC POP IS
THERE FOR SERN NH AND SWRN ME THIS MORNING. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL
PLACES THE LEADING EDGE AT KPSM AROUND 16 OR 17Z...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN POP TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK LEAD S/WV TROF LIFTING THRU THE
LARGER ERN L/WV TROF IS SUPPORTING A WEAK LOW PRES SKIRTING THRU
THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUD SHIELD IS ROUGHLY BISECTING THE
CWFA...WITH VERY LIGHT SN OCCURRING ACROSS SERN NH AND EXTREME
SWRN ME. GENERALLY HAVE SCHC TO CHC POP FOR COASTAL ZONES
TODAY...AS OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LACKING.
ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE SFC TROF THAT EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW OF
THE WEAK LOW PRES CENTER. WINDS ARE NW AT MISM1...KLEW...AND KPWM.
WHILE AT KSFM AND IOSN3 WINDS ARE WSW. WITHIN THIS TROF...MORE
CONVECTIVE SHSN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AND PROPAGATING WITH THE LLVL
FLOW. SOME BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE PSBL IN ANY OF THESE
SHSN. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS HANDLING THIS FEATURE VERY WELL
THIS MORNING...WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF FEATURING HIGH POP
WITHIN THE TROF AXIS. HAVE STARTED POP GRIDS HERE AND BLENDED
TOWARDS THIS AFTN. AS STRONGER S/WV TROF OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
REIGNITES SFC CYCLOGENESIS S OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NLY AND NELY ACROSS THE CWFA AND WATERS.
MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR SHSN CONTINUING WITH THE WEAK SFC TROF AS
IT PUSHES BACK TO THE SW TODAY. THIS COULD KEEP THE NH SEACOAST
AND EXTREME SWRN ME IN THE SHSN A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE REST OF
THE COAST. HAVE LINGERED THE CHC POP IN THIS AREA INTO THE AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE SHSN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. A FEW
POCKETS WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WILL RADIATE WELL...AND LOWS WILL
APPROACH SUB-ZERO. THIS AFTN...CIRRUS SHIELD WILL PREVENT IDEAL
DIURNAL HEATING...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
UPR TROF CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MON. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHSN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE MTNS...WHERE DEVELOPING WLY
FLOW WILL SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SN. THE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WILL KICK SFC LOW PRES WELL OUT TO SEA THOUGH...AND HAVE CUT
BACK ON AREA OF CHC POP FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWFA. GREATEST
THREAT FOR STEADIER PCPN WILL BE ON THE MIDCOAST...WHERE LOW PRES
CUTTING WWD ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY
PASS CLOSER ENOUGH TO DOWNEAST MAINE TO BRUSH AREAS AROUND
PENOBSCOT BAY WITH -SN.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPR TROF...STRONG CAA KICKS IN EARLY MON.
DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO
THE SFC. ATTM GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS LOOK LIKELY...WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR HIGHER GUSTS DEPENDING ON EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF LOW PRES. THE CLOSER TO THE CWFA...THE TIGHTER THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ARCTIC AIR TO ENTER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING FULL FLEDGED STORM OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES FROM A
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL HANG UP
IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALL BETS ARE OFF LATE IN THE WEEK AS THERE ARE GREAT DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUN. THE GGEM AND GFS BRING A SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST EURO RUN IS MUCH MORE
WELL DEFINED WITH A STRONG EAST COAST LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST...WITH A BLOCKING
HIGH TO THE NORTH OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR THE DAY 6 PERIOD.
INTERESTED TO SEE IF THE 12Z RUNS HOLD ONTO THIS SLOW MOVING
FEATURE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS THIS MORNING ALONG
COAST. DIVIDING LINE WILL BE BETWEEN KCON AND KPSM...RUNNING ENE
THRU KAUG AND KRKD. N OF THIS LINE EXPECT NO PCPN...EXCEPT FOR
KHIE WHERE UPSLOPE SHSN WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS MORNING.
BECOMING VFR THIS AFTN
LATE SUN THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR IFR SN TO WORK INTO
KRKD IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OCEAN LOW PRES. MORE LIKELY IS THAT
BEHIND LOW PRES ON MON STRONG WLY WINDS DEVELOP...WITH GUSTS AOA
25 KT. UPSLOPE SHSN WILL BEGIN AGAIN FOR KHIE AND KLEB LATE SUN
THRU MON.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ATTM.
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL CREATE NE FLOW ON
THE WATERS THRU THIS AFTN. COULD SEE WINDS APPROACH SCA GUSTS
LATER TODAY AS A RESULT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT
MON...STRONG WLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTN. WINDS COULD GUST ABOVE GALE FORCE INTO TUE.
LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LEGRO/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
258 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WELL EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. A COLD...BRISK FLOW WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LEAD S/WV TROF LIFTING THRU THE LARGER ERN L/WV TROF IS
SUPPORTING A WEAK LOW PRES SKIRTING THRU THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUD
SHIELD IS ROUGHLY BISECTING THE CWFA...WITH VERY LIGHT SN
OCCURRING ACROSS SERN NH AND EXTREME SWRN ME. GENERALLY HAVE SCHC
TO CHC POP FOR COASTAL ZONES TODAY...AS OVERALL SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION WILL BE LACKING.
ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE SFC TROF THAT EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW OF
THE WEAK LOW PRES CENTER. WINDS ARE NW AT MISM1...KLEW...AND KPWM.
WHILE AT KSFM AND IOSN3 WINDS ARE WSW. WITHIN THIS TROF...MORE
CONVECTIVE SHSN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AND PROPAGATING WITH THE LLVL
FLOW. SOME BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE PSBL IN ANY OF THESE
SHSN. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS HANDLING THIS FEATURE VERY WELL
THIS MORNING...WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF FEATURING HIGH POP
WITHIN THE TROF AXIS. HAVE STARTED POP GRIDS HERE AND BLENDED
TOWARDS THIS AFTN. AS STRONGER S/WV TROF OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
REIGNITES SFC CYCLOGENESIS S OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE NLY AND NELY ACROSS THE CWFA AND WATERS.
MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR SHSN CONTINUING WITH THE WEAK SFC TROF AS
IT PUSHES BACK TO THE SW TODAY. THIS COULD KEEP THE NH SEACOAST
AND EXTREME SWRN ME IN THE SHSN A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE REST OF
THE COAST. HAVE LINGERED THE CHC POP IN THIS AREA INTO THE AFTN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE SHSN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. A FEW
POCKETS WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WILL RADIATE WELL...AND LOWS WILL
APPROACH SUB-ZERO. THIS AFTN...CIRRUS SHIELD WILL PREVENT IDEAL
DIURNAL HEATING...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPR TROF CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MON. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHSN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE MTNS...WHERE DEVELOPING WLY
FLOW WILL SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SN. THE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WILL KICK SFC LOW PRES WELL OUT TO SEA THOUGH...AND HAVE CUT
BACK ON AREA OF CHC POP FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWFA. GREATEST
THREAT FOR STEADIER PCPN WILL BE ON THE MIDCOAST...WHERE LOW PRES
CUTTING WWD ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY
PASS CLOSER ENOUGH TO DOWNEAST MAINE TO BRUSH AREAS AROUND
PENOBSCOT BAY WITH -SN.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPR TROF...STRONG CAA KICKS IN EARLY MON.
DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO TRANSLATE TO
THE SFC. ATTM GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS LOOK LIKELY...WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR HIGHER GUSTS DEPENDING ON EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF LOW PRES. THE CLOSER TO THE CWFA...THE TIGHTER THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ARCTIC AIR TO ENTER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING FULL FLEDGED STORM OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES FROM A
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL HANG UP
IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALL BETS ARE OFF LATE IN THE WEEK AS THERE ARE GREAT DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUN. THE GGEM AND GFS BRING A SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST EURO RUN IS MUCH MORE
WELL DEFINED WITH A STRONG EAST COAST LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST...WITH A BLOCKING
HIGH TO THE NORTH OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR THE DAY 6 PERIOD.
INTERESTED TO SEE IF THE 12Z RUNS HOLD ONTO THIS SLOW MOVING
FEATURE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS THIS MORNING ALONG
COAST. DIVIDING LINE WILL BE BETWEEN KCON AND KPSM...RUNNING ENE
THRU KAUG AND KRKD. N OF THIS LINE EXPECT NO PCPN...EXCEPT FOR
KHIE WHERE UPSLOPE SHSN WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS MORNING.
BECOMING VFR THIS AFTN
LATE SUN THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR IFR SN TO WORK INTO
KRKD IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OCEAN LOW PRES. MORE LIKELY IS THAT
BEHIND LOW PRES ON MON STRONG WLY WINDS DEVELOP...WITH GUSTS AOA
25 KT. UPSLOPE SHSN WILL BEGIN AGAIN FOR KHIE AND KLEB LATE SUN
THRU MON.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ATTM.
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL CREATE NE FLOW ON
THE WATERS THRU THIS AFTN. COULD SEE WINDS APPROACH SCA GUSTS
LATER TODAY AS A RESULT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT
MON...STRONG WLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTN. WINDS COULD GUST ABOVE GALE FORCE INTO TUE.
LONG TERM...GALES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LEGRO/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1224 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
ATLANTIC WELL EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. A
COLD...BRISK FLOW WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POP UPWARDS ALONG THE COAST
USING THE LATEST HRRR RUN...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY SNOWING ACROSS THE MIDCOAST. BACK TO THE SW
HAVE ALSO INCREASE POP TO CHANCE...WHERE OBS UPSTREAM IN SRN NEW
ENGLAND ARE REPORTING SOME -SN. WEAK TROF HAS ALSO SET UP OVER
SWRN ME...WHERE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHSN AS
WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES EAST. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW AN INITIAL WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS STARVED FOR MOISTURE SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. THE MODELS ALSO SHOWING A
WEAK AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MIDCOAST AS THE
PRIMARY DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OR LESS
OF SNOW DURING THE EVENING PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...ONLY FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD START OUT PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE OCEAN
STORM DEVELOPS AND STARTS MOVING NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE STORM WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE MIDCOAST. MODELS AREN`T IN TOTAL AGREEMENT
ON TRACK...BUT GENERALLY KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WELL
OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW DEEPENS SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES STAY GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE WARMING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE COAST...
A WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND IT OVER NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
WITH A STRONG JET OVER THE AREA... EXPECT WINDS TO BE GUSTY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE. THE WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES IN ON THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD DOES NOT LAST LONG AND MAINLY IMPACTS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT... EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ONLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL... WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE COAST AND AS COLD AS
-10 IN THE INTERIOR. AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST... EXPECT
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A WAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE BROADER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND AGAIN
SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE MIDCOAST IN LIGHT SNOW.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL GUST TO 30 KT OR MORE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN OCEAN STORM DEVELOPS RAPIDLY EAST OF THE WATERS
AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO 45 KT ARE POSSIBLE
AS A STRONG JET BRINGS COLDER AIR IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
410 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE AND RUC 500MB VORTICITY HAVE
REMAINED IN LOCKSTEP THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE WAVE IS NOW ENTERING
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. VISIBILITIES AT AUTOMATED SITES CONTINUE TO
RISE BEHIND THE WAVE...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW REMAINS LIKELY WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PICKING UP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. EVEN THOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE WV/MD RIDGES...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET IT RUN THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION
TIME.
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI TOMORROW MORNING AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 1-2 MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TO TRACK SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND STRONGER. PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
LONG DURATION SNOWFALL...BUT A QUICK BURST OF SNOW FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. NAM/GFS SHOW STRONG OMEGA VALUES IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 70 AND
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...THINK
THAT MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHILE THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE AREA. WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED HEAVY SNOW FOR
GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...AND THINK THAT
NEARLY ALL SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 5KTS...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. AS HAS BEEN THE RECENT TREND...THAT MEANS IT WILL BE TIME
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND REACH LAKE ONTARIO
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM.
HAVE ONLY INSERTED A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. WITH THE LOW CENTER
FARTHER FROM THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ON WEDNESDAY AFTER
THE LOW DEPARTS...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A
DUSTING OF SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
A FEW NOTCHES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MDLS ARE IN AGRMNT IN DEPICTIONS OF FLATTENED FLOW OVR THE CONUS
BY MID WEEK...AND IN DVLPMNT OF A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE SW U.S. BY
THE WEEKEND. THE PTN WL RESULT IN TEMP MODERATION FOR THE
REGION...CUMULATING IN A WEEKEND PROG ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES AS HTS RISE WITH EWD PROGRESS OF THE WRN STATES
LOW.
FOR POPS...A SHRTWV WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO
SPREAD PCPN OVR THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NGT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CHC
NMBRS WERE FORECAST GIVEN TIMING AND TROF-MAGNITUDE ISSUES...BUT
PROGRESSION LKS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY RAPID TO FORECAST A DRY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR WITH -SN AND STRATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS
LOW PRES SLIDES ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. SFC WIND WL VEER TO
THE WEST THIS AFTN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROF...AND IMPROVEMENT
IS ANTICIPATED AS SNOW DIMINISHES WITH INCRSG SBSDNC THIS EVE.
MORE RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING WIDESPREAD IFR...ARE ANTICIPATED ON
MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SN OVR THE REGION.
.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS IN
SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATOCU THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR OHZ057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ031-074>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR WVZ021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR WVZ003-004-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
041.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS FOUND ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
EARLIER TODAY...THE MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS FORMED IN RESPONSE TO
CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY...CSI...AS EVIDENT IN MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS OF WEAK NEGATIVE SATURATED GEOSTROPHIC EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL VORTICITY...EPV. FORTUNATELY...MOISTURE WAS LIMITED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ALL THAT COLD AT THE SURFACE...SO WHAT
LITTLE SNOW THAT FELL DID NOT PRODUCE AN APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A DUSTING ON MAINLY GRASSY AREAS.
RADAR STILL HAS LIGHT ECHO RETURNS INDICATING POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES. THE 12Z HIRES 4KM NCEP WRF-NMM MODEL PICKED
UP ON THIS SNOW ACTIVITY QUITE WELL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS HAS
THE 3KM HRRR MODEL. TIMING OF THE WAVE ON SATL MEANS THAT MOST OF
THE SCATTERED -SN ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z/
MON...SAVE FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE SNOW COMPONENT FOR THE WESTERN
SLOPE AREAS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE WRN
UPSLOPE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND BELOW CRITERIA FOR ANY WINTER HEADLINE. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA...ANY ACCUMULATION FOR THIS AFTERNOONS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD PERHAPS LEAVE A QUICK DUSTING OR COATING OF SNOW...LESS ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH...AT WORST...WITH THE BULK OF ANY SNOW MELTING
QUICKLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEING AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME SOLAR INSULATION THAT IS MAKING IT THROUGH
BREAKS IN CLOUDS.
WINDS KICK UP BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST.
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HAVE A DRYING AFFECT ON THE ATMOSPHERE AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS PREVALENT...WITH AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WERE BASED MAINLY ON
THE BIAS-CORRECTED ADJUSTED MET GUIDANCE.
ONE CONCERN COMING INTO THE SHIFT WAS FOR WIND CHILL POTENTIAL
MAINLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. AFTER POPULATING THE GRIDS...CAN
ONLY FIND A FEW WIND CHILL TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN THE EXTREME WRN 5
ZNS THAT ARE BELOW ZERO...A FEW GRID POINTS REACH ABOUT -5 FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT ANY WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE DAY STARTS OFF FAIRLY QUIET AS WEAK HIGH PRES TO OUR SOUTH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON...IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUR WAY.
AT 18Z/MON...GUIDANCE SHOW THE CENTER OF THE CLIPPER TO BE OVER
IL/IN AND BY 00Z/TUE OVER THE OH VALLEY. ASIDE FROM SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WRN 5 ZNS...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE
DRY FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. HAVE BROUGHT CHC POPS INTO THE
NW THIRD OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...AND THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
FALLING THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 20Z. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE 22Z IN THE NW PORTION SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
TEMPS FOR MON WERE BASED ON THE BIAS CORRECTED ADJSTD MAV/GFS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER VORT MAX THAT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY POTENT IN A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA. THE FEATURE
ITSELF WILL DRIFT OVER THE MD/PA BORDER...WRAPPING PRECIP TIGHTLY
AROUND IT. A BULK OF THE PRECIP - ALL SNOW - WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THE ENTIRE REGION WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF THE COAST.
THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THE
NEXT NIGHT AS WELL...THE MON NIGHT CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW - ALBEIT LIGHT E OF THE MTNS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY THE
PREDAWN HRS TUE.
UNLIKE THE OTHER CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN THE PARADE OF THESE FEATURES
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER AND ACTUALLY TURN TOWARD SLY - NOT AS DRY. DEWPOINTS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO INCREASE AT
LEAST TOWARD FREEZING BY MID AFTN...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE. EACH
FOLLOWING DAY HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO TAKE OVER
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE PAST FEW DAYS OF
CLIPPERS...INTERMITTENT SNOWS...WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NE. AT LEAST THE INFLUENCE FROM THIS
LARGE-SCALE FEATURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND ALLOW WARMER
WX TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE NORTH. MED/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
DIVERGING W/ THE FRI LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT IN AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MEET UP W/ ONE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST - OVER THE EAST COAST ON FRI AND POSSIBLY BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA...AT THIS POINT MORE LIQUID THAN FROZEN PRECIP.
THEN...LIKELY A QUIET AND WARMER WEEKEND THAN THE CURRENT OR
PREVIOUS ONE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED -SHSN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A BIT TRICKY TO DEAL WITH FOR
THE TAFS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME FLURRIES LIGHT
SNOW COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING ISOLATED BANDS OF SNOW OVER THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...AND THEY COULD IMPACT THE DC/MRB/BALT TERMINALS UNTIL 23Z
PRODUCING SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS. EXPECT CLEARING TRENDS AFTER
00Z IN THE DC/BALT TAFS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO KICK UP FROM THE SW TO
W THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 18-20KT.
FOR MON...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER.
ONE LAST CLIPPER SYSTEM W/ SNOW CHANCES ON MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY
SPREADING ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT QUICKLY EXITING BY DAWN TUE MRNG. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THEN A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THRU THE AREA TUE NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT NLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ON WED...THEN MORE QUIET WX INTO THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL RAISE THE SCA UP AT 5 PM FOR MAINLY THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
AND THE ENTIRE MD PORTION OF THE CHES BAY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SCA WINDS GUSTS MIGHT HOLD OF AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER 5 PM...BUT ONCE
THE UPPER WAVE PASSES...THEY SHOULD KICK IN.
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE AREAS ON MON
AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES...BUT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM HEADS EAST.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE MON AND OFF THE
COAST BY EARLY TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT THE NEXT NIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN LARGELY WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMZ/GMS
NEAR TERM...SMZ
SHORT TERM...SMZ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...SMZ/GMS
MARINE...SMZ/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1249 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1245PM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...BUT REST OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ALIGN NICELY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE RUC MODEL. AS OF
10AM...THIS FEATURE IS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 10AM UPDATE...PRIMARY
CHANGE WAS TO BRING LIKELY POPS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST INTO THE
NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE AND EASTERN OHIO...CONSIDERING RECENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES (LOWERING
THEM SLIGHTLY) AND SNOWFALL (BUMPING SOME LOCATIONS UP A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH).
NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
EXIT TONIGHT. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS MORE STRETCHED ALOFT
AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN SATURDAY SYSTEM...AND AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGES WHERE SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL ALLOW FOR 2-4
TODAY AND ANOTHER 1-2 TONIGHT IN PRESTON...TUCKER AND GARRETT
WHERE ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE. 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES FOR THE
CHESTNUT AND LAURELS IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TIGHT RANGE TODAY MAINLY IN THE
20S.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW OVERNIGHT AS IT
QUICKLY PASSES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOWS IN THE TEENS WITH A
FEW SINGLE DIGITS RIDGES. HOW QUICKLY WIND FIELDS WEAKEN WILL
DETERMINE HOW LOW WIND CHILL VALUES CAN GET. -10F OR COLDER
POSSIBLE ACROSS PRESTON...TUCKER AND GARRET AND MENTIONED IN
FORECAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON NEXT CLIPPER BEING BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT SPREADING SNOW
INTO EASTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE A
SWATH OF 2-4 INCH SNOW POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH 6 OR MORE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PRESTON...TUCKER AND GARRETT. AS
SUCH COORDINATED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THESE COUNTIES. FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
INTO THE TEENS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES.
THE FUN IS NOT OVER HOWEVER...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING IN QUICKLY TUESDAY ON THE HEELS OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON TRACK WITH NAM FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS AS THIS WILL BE FURTHER
DEFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. NOT AS COLD TUESDAY WITH HIGH FROM THE
MID 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MDLS ARE IN AGRMNT IN DEPICTIONS OF FLATTENED FLOW OVR THE CONUS
BY MID WEEK...AND IN DVLPMNT OF A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE SW U.S. BY
THE WEEKEND. THE PTN WL RESULT IN TEMP MODERATION FOR THE
REGION...CUMULATING IN A WEEKEND PROG ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES AS HTS RISE WITH EWD PROGRESS OF THE WRN STATES
LOW.
FOR POPS...A SHRTWV WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO
SPREAD PCPN OVR THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NGT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CHC
NMBRS WERE FORECAST GIVEN TIMING AND TROF-MAGNITUDE ISSUES...BUT
PROGRESSION LKS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY RAPID TO FORECAST A DRY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR WITH -SN AND STRATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS
LOW PRES SLIDES ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. SFC WIND WL VEER TO
THE WEST THIS AFTN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROF...AND IMPROVEMENT
IS ANTICIPATED AS SNOW DIMINISHES WITH INCRSG SBSDNC THIS EVE.
MORE RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING WIDESPREAD IFR...ARE ANTICIPATED ON
MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SN OVR THE REGION.
.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS IN
SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATOCU THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
041.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
959 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ALIGN NICELY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE RUC MODEL. AS OF
10AM...THIS FEATURE IS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND IT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 10AM UPDATE...PRIMARY
CHANGE WAS TO BRING LIKELY POPS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST INTO THE
NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE AND EASTERN OHIO...CONSIDERING RECENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES (LOWERING
THEM SLIGHTLY) AND SNOWFALL (BUMPING SOME LOCATIONS UP A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH). PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
EXIT TONIGHT. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS MORE STRETCHED ALOFT
AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN SATURDAY SYSTEM...AND AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGES WHERE SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL ALLOW FOR 2-4
TODAY AND ANOTHER 1-2 TONIGHT IN PRESTON...TUCKER AND GARRETT
WHERE ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE. 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES FOR THE
CHESTNUT AND LAURELS IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TIGHT RANGE TODAY MAINLY IN THE
20S.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW OVERNIGHT AS IT
QUICKLY PASSES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOWS IN THE TEENS WITH A
FEW SINGLE DIGITS RIDGES. HOW QUICKLY WIND FIELDS WEAKEN WILL
DETERMINE HOW LOW WIND CHILL VALUES CAN GET. -10F OR COLDER
POSSIBLE ACROSS PRESTON...TUCKER AND GARRET AND MENTIONED IN
FORECAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON NEXT CLIPPER BEING BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT SPREADING SNOW
INTO EASTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE A
SWATH OF 2-4 INCH SNOW POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH 6 OR MORE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PRESTON...TUCKER AND GARRETT. AS
SUCH COORDINATED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THESE COUNTIES. FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
INTO THE TEENS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES.
THE FUN IS NOT OVER HOWEVER...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING IN QUICKLY TUESDAY ON THE HEELS OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON TRACK WITH NAM FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS AS THIS WILL BE FURTHER
DEFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. NOT AS COLD TUESDAY WITH HIGH FROM THE
MID 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEPICTIONS OF WEAKENING ERN NORTH
AMERICAN TROF AND DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OVR THE SW U.S. THE RESULTING
SPLIT FLOW WITH A NWD RETREAT OF THE NRN JET BRANCH SIGNALS A TEMP
MODERATION FOR THE ERN CONUS...INCLUDING THE UPR OH REGION.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK FORECAST THUS FEATURES A GRADUAL INCRS
IN TEMPS CUMULATING IN A WEEKEND PROG NRLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW IS CURRENTLY
TIMED TO SPREAD PCPN OVR THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PROGRESSION
LKS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY RAPID TO FORECAST A DRY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR WITH -SN AND STRATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED TDA AS LOW PRES
SLIDES ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE WEST
THIS AFTN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROF...AND SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS ANTICIPATED AS CLD BASES RISE...AND AS SNOW DIMINISHES BY EVE.
MORE RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING WIDESPREAD IFR...ARE ANTICIPATED ON
MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SN OVR THE REGION.
.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS IN
SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATOCU THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
041.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
650 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
IN THE SHORT TERM.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BACKING WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION ARE
PUSHING REMAINING LES OFFSHORE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI...WITH A FEW
TRANSIENT LES BANDS REMAINING NEAR THE SHORE. HAVE THUS CANCELED THE
LES WARNING...THOUGH A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UPPER MI. LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS GIVEN A SIMILAR SETUP TO
LAST NIGHTS SUBSTANTIAL COOLING.
MAIN FOCUS IS ON A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN A
LITTLE FUZZY...WITH THE RUC PLACING THE BULK OF PRECIP IN UPPER
MI...THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM PUTTING MOST ALONG THE WI BORDER...AND
THE GFS PLACING NEARLY ALL PRECIP IN NORTHERN WI. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND AS THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS BEEN TO BRING
THINGS SLIGHTLY NORTH.
PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AN AREA OF 850 TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS.
THE MOST ACTIVE LAYER IS NOT CLEAR...BUT BELIEVE THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE BETWEEN 750 AND 800MB. A FAIRLY DECENT LAYER OF 150 TO 200MB
WITHIN THE BEST RISING MOTION WILL BE IN THE DGZ. BOOSTED SNOW
RATIOS TO THE LOW 20S GIVEN THIS SET UP. OVERALL...KEPT TOTAL QPF OF
0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES...PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG
THE WI BORDER...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS PUSHES 50
MILES EITHER WAY GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND NARROW FEATURE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE EVENT AS THERE IS TOO LOW OF
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN ANY ADVISORIES ATTM. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN SNOW SHIELD WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THEN...A
WELL DEFINED TROUGH BEHIND THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A QUICK
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS SETUP IN EASTERN CANADA. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND H850
TEMPS AROUND -19C...EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE CLIPPER TO LEAD TO A BRIEF UPTICK IN THE
LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE EVENING AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT DUE TO WEAKENING WINDS WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE...BUT WITH
THE DGZ LOCATED RIGHT IN THE BEST OMEGA AND CLOUD LAYER...WOULD
THINK THAT THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS WOULD SEE A DUSTING
TO A FLUFFY COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MORE VARIABLE AND BACKING WINDS
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS SEEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING
THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH THE BEST/SHARPEST
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. BUT EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH WAA AND MID LEVEL
FGEN TO LEAD SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST MID LEVEL FGEN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT DOES
TRY TO PIVOT SOMEWHAT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS PIVOT
CONTINUES AND WHERE IT LINES UP IN FUTURE RUNS...AS IT COULD LEAD TO
SOME INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND AND H850 TEMPS AROUND -9C SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. WIND FIELDS VARY FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE MODELS...SO DIDN/T TRY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC OTHER THAN
TWEAKING POPS/QPF UP SLIGHTLY IN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS LOOKS TO PRODUCE
0.15-0.25 INCHES OF QPF...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTH/EASTERN CWA. THIS DOES SEEM TO MATCH UP WITH THE NORTH EDGE OF
THE BETTER H850-700 WAA AND RESULTING FGEN...ALONG WITH THE RIGHT
REAR OF THE UPPER JET. THIS PRODUCES A GENERAL 2-4INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE MUCH COLD AIR SURGING
IN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WEST COAST. THINKING THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUIETER PERIOD
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY STRETCHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WITH LIMITED COLD AIR AND WINDS BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO ANY LAKE EFFECT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY AND
DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN...AS MODELS DIFFER
IN HOW THE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SW CONUS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR POPS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST DAY/NIGHT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013
AT KCMX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS WINDS BACK SW...CUTTING OFF LAKE
EFFECT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. FLUFFY...HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...
MAINLY BTWN 06 AND 12Z AT KIWD. VIS SHOULD FALL TO LOW IFR AT IWD
FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND PERHAPS TO LIFR FOR A TIME. KCMX
AND KSAW SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE REMOVED FROM HEAVIER SNOW...BUT
STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR VIS/MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS
THE SNOW FALLS...SO BLSN IS NOT A CONCERN. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY
TUE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAILING. BETTER UPSLOPE AT KIWD MAY LEAD TO
IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013
EXPECT WEST WINDS OF UNDER 25 KNOTS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN VEER NORTH TO 20
TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND A TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP
UPR TROF OVER E-CNTRL NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OFF
THE W COAST. A SHRTWV/ATTENDANT LO PRES TROF EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
CROSSED UPR MI THIS MRNG...DROPPING AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SN
IN AREAS NEAR LK SUP FAVORED FOR MOISTENING/UPSLOPE FLOW IN LLVL
W-NW WINDS. SINCE THE AIRMASS WAS SO DRY WITH PWAT NO MORE THAN
0.05-0.15 INCH...LOCATIONS AWAY FM LK MOISTENING SAW LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SN. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF PASSAGE...A LLVL NW FLOW BTWN
THE DEPARTING TROF AND A HI PRES RDG MOVING INTO MN AND SHOWN BY THE
MQT VWP IS BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 12Z H85
TEMPS RANGING FM -20C AT GRB TO -24C AT INL AND -28C AT YPL. DESPITE
THE ABSOLUTE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WITH PWATS 0.05 TO 0.10
INCH AND LO INVRN BASE H9-875 SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS...THESE
RAOBS INDICATE THE LOWER LYRS ARE MOIST ENUF IN A RELATIVE SENSE TO
SUSTAIN NMRS WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS SHOWN ON VSBL STLT IMAGERY.
AWAY FM THE NW WIND SN BELTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCNTRL WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING SHRTWV ARE CAUSING MOSUNNY CONDITIONS. BUT SFC TEMPS ARE
WELL BLO NORMAL.
TNGT...DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING SHRTWV ARE FCST TO DOMINATE...AND FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN
BASE FALLING TO 3-4K FT OVER THE W AND TO ARND 5K FT IN AREAS E OF
MQT. WITH SLOWLY SHIFTING /DIMINISHING NW LLVL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TO -20C TO -23C...EXPECT NMRS LES BANDS TO IMPACT
AREAS FAVORED BY NW WINDS. LONG FETCH INTO THE ERN CWA WL ALLOW FOR
MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR...AND FCST PROFILES SHOW A RELATIVELY
DEEP DGZ WL OCCUPY A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE LYR. IN FACT...
THE 12Z NAM REMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS SHOWING SN/
WATER RATIOS OF 30:1 AT MUNISING THRU TNGT. A GOOD NUMBER OF THE
HIER RES MODELS ALSO INDICATE INCRSG LLVL CNVGC IN THE AREA E OF
MUNISING WITH DVLPMNT OF AN E LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF SE ONTARIO INTO
LUCE COUNTY. THIS COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE FACTORS WARRANTS
CONTINUING THE GOING LES WRNG FOR ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE
COUNTIES. OVER THE W...RELATIVELY SHORT FETCH LENGTH OVER WRN LK SUP
SHORTENED FURTHER BY ICE BUILDUP OFF THE W SHORE WL TEND TO LIMIT
MODERATION OF THIS FRIGID AIRMASS. FCST PROFILES FOR THE WRN CWA
INDICATE THE DGZ OVER THE W WL OCCUPY ONLY THE LOWEST 1K FT OF SO OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS LIMIT ON SN FLAKE SIZE SHOULD HOLD DOWN SN
ACCUMS. THE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SN MIGHT FALL OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY
WITH MORE PERSISTENT LLVL CNVGC/HINT OF LAND BREEZE FLOW OFF NW WI.
WITH SLOWLY WEAKENING H925 WINDS...DIMINISHING BLSN MIGHT BE ENUF TO
ALLOW EARLY CANX OF LES ADVY OVER THE W AWAY FM ONTONAGON COUNTY.
BUT LEFT GOING ADVY ALONE FOR NOW EVEN THOUGH SN AMNTS MIGHT BE SUB
ADVY DUE TO EFFICIENT NATURE OF FINE SN FLAKES TO LIMIT VSBY.
MON...AS HI PRES RDG AXIS TO THE W SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE E...THE LLVL
FLOW IS PROGGED TO STEADILY BACK TO THE W BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE A FEW DEGREES TO -18C TO -21C BY
LATE IN THE DAY...INSTABILITY WL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LES
TO CONTINUE. SLOWLY RISING H85 TEMPS MAY IMPROVE SN GROWTH OVER
THE W... BUT LINGERING LO INVRN BASE AND GENERAL ACYC NATURE OF THE
LLVL FLOW SHOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS THE SHSN INTENSITY. OVER THE E...
ALTHOUGH THE BANDS MIGHT BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E...LINGERING
SHARP LLVL CNVGC IN AT LEAST PART OF THIS AREA WARRANTS MAINTAINING
GOING WRNG THRU THE DAY WITH FVRBL SN GROWTH PARAMETERS IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
NO BIG CHANGES TO EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT THAT OCCURS THROUGH THIS
WEEK AS COLD TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS RETREATS INTO CANADA AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE THIS WEEK AND TURNS TO SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN RESULT IS WARMER TEMPS RETURNING TO
UPR LAKES BY LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF SYSTEM
SNOW ALONG THE WAY.
TO START THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY EVENING...EXPECT LK EFFECT OVER
THE EAST TO GRADUALLY FADE AWAY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS BACK AND
INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAJORITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS INTO NORTHERN LUCE
COUNTY. MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALREADY WILL BE
SPILLING ACROSS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW PUSHING INTO
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. TEMPS MAY TRY TO
PLUMMET QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING WELL BLO ZERO BEFORE RISING LATER.
COLDEST TEMPS WOULD BE OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
CLIPPER SYSTEM ALLUDED TO IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ASHORE OVER NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG FROM NORTHERN MN ACROSS WI
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THOUGH SFC TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN...H85 TROUGH CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT H85 TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
DIVERGENCE ALOFT/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TO SPREAD AREA OF LGT SNOW
ACROSS CWA. MIXING RATIOS LESS THAN 2G/KG AND SHORT DURATION OF
STEADY SNOW WILL LIMIT ACCUMS...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PERSISTENT FGEN TO RESULT IN A BIT MORE SNOW /2-3 INCHES/ OVER FAR
SCNTRL IMT-MNM-ESC. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH LATEST HPC WINTER WEATHER
GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN IMPACTING MOST OF CWA WITH
LGT SNOW. NAM HAS BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT...PAINTING WIDESPREAD SNOW
OVER ALL CWA YDY AND HARDLY SHOWING ANY QPF WITH 12Z RUN TODAY. WE
HAVE NOTICED RECENTLY OVER LAST FEW WEEKS THAT WITH THESE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS MODELS HAVE HAD TENDENCY TO FORECAST HEAVIER SWATHS OF SNOW
FARTHER SOUTH LEADING UP TO SNOW EVENTS MORE ALONG STRONGER
925-850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION...BEFORE CORRECTING FARTHER TO THE
NORTH RIGHT BEFORE THE EVENT BEGINS. WILL PLAY THAT TREND WITH THIS
FORECAST AND GO WITH FARTHER NORTH ECMWF DEPICTION WITH QPF/SNOW.
12Z GFS HAS TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL AND ACTUALLY SHOWS SFC LOW A
BIT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL.
AS SFC LOW OR AT LEAST TROUGHING MOVES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BY TUESDAY EVENING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SOME H85
AND EVEN H7 MOISTURE AROUND WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN BLO -13C. WINDS WILL
BE STEADILY BACKING FROM NORTH TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SCT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SEEM REASONABLE ALONG LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD
NOT BE BIG DEAL THOUGH AS INVERSIONS QUICKLY LOWER AND WITH PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS END QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH
THAT CLIPPER AFFECTING UPPER LAKES REGION SOMETIME FROM AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY. GEM-NH QUICKEST AS IT HAS
STRONGER H85 LOW OVER NORTHERN MN BY WEDNESDAY AFTN RESULTING IN
MORE MOISTURE AND TEMP ADVECTION AT H85 INTO UPR MICHIGAN. GFS A BIT
SLOWER...FAVORING MOST QPF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...BUT STILL HAS MAJORITY OF QPF ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST/CNTRL. SYSTEM IS SIMILAR TO ONE THAT MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY...EXCEPT THIS ONE IS LACKING UPR JET SUPPORT BUT
HAS MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS H7 MIXING RATIOS ARE 2.5-3.0 G/KG
FLOWING INTO UPR MICHIGAN. 00Z ECMWF WAS FAIRLY WET WITH
QPF...SHOWING OVER 0.4 INCH OVER CNTRL CWA. PREVIOUS RUNS OF ECMWF
AND NEW 12Z RUN NOT AS MOIST...WITH UP TO 0.3 INCH. GFS STAYING ON
THE DRIER SIDE...AROUND 0.15 INCH. SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE WETTER SNOW
AS H85 TEMPS ARE WARMER THAN -10C AND H7 TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHLY
COLDER. COLDER BLYR TEMPS IN TEENS/LOWER 20S PROBABLY ALLOW SLR/S TO
END UP AROUND CLIMO CENTERED ON 15:1. AT FIRST GLANCE...LOW-END ADVY
SNOWS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF CWA.
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OVER NORTHERN PACIFIC WELL TO SOUTH OF ALLUTIAN
ISLANDS. PLENTY OF TIME TO LATCH ONTO SPECIFICS BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
PRESENT TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY. POPS MAY NEED INCREASING FOR
THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST...BUT JUST KEPT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW
AS MAJORITY OF SYSTEM SNOW WILL BE FINISHING UP BY THAT TIME. ONCE
LOW SLIDES BY BLYR WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
AND THEN BACK OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. DECREASING MOISTURE AND LACK OF
VERY COLD AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY LK EFFECT LIMITED INTO FRIDAY. OTHER
STORY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE SIGNS THAT WE WILL BE AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BUSTING OUT OF OUR COLDER WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INSISTENT THAT COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATER FRIDAY...SO TEMPS MAY
END UP ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME AREAS. SIMILAR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...SIGNALS EMERGING IN MODELS/ENSEMBLES THAT AS FLOW BECOMES
SPLIT NEXT WEEKEND...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO GREAT
LAKES NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRENGTH OF SYSTEM DEPENDS ON IF
SOUTHERN WAVE BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND WHETHER ANY PHASING CAN
OCCUR WITH NORTHERN STREAM. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...12Z RUNS OF ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER UPPER LAKES LATE NEXT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM TO BRING CHANCE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN INTO UPR LAKES. DID GO
AHEAD AND MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
UP WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. ELSEWHERE...LOOKS LIKE A WET
SYSTEM SNOW WOULD IMPACT MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN. A BIT PREMATURE TO
GET TOO HUNG UP ON DETAILS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GO
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
KCMX...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH NW
FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ALLOWING CONTINUED LES. LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE
COMMON INTO THIS EVNG WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALLOWING MORE BLOWING
OF THE FINE SN FLAKES...WHICH WL BE EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VSBY. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH A BIT TNGT...SO WL THE BLSN/POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VSBYS.
KIWD...IFR VSBYS WITH FALLING SN/BLSN WL TEND TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY THIS EVNG AS THE THE LLVL FLOW SLOWLY BACKS AND
WEAKENS...WHICH WL DIMINISH THE SHSN AND BLSN.
KSAW...ALTHOUGH PASSING -SHSN COULD BRING MVFR VSBY/CIGS AT
TIMES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS UP
TO 25-30KTS ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE WATER. AS THE NW WINDS
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A HI PRES RIDGE...THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPARY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
MAINLY BLO 25 KTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A SERIES OF CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRAUDALLY WARM SO
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN WAY OF FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001>003-
084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
MONDAY FOR LSZ241>243-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
336 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
A CLIPPER WILL BRING SNOW TO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST HEAVIER
STRIPE OF F-GEN SNOWS WILL MISS OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALHOUN AND
JACKSON COUNTIES...JUST ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
WENT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON AND CALHOUN SINCE
THIS WILL BE A SYNOPTIC EVENT...WHILE CONTINUING THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO LAKE ACCUMS THERE TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME RATHER
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THE YET ANOTHER
CLIPPER APPROACHES IN FAST NW FLOW FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SOME
CONVERGENCE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED TO DROP MORE SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPS MODERATE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL BEFORE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A CHC OF SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WX FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHC FOR MIXED PCPN LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE LAKES AND CHANNELS THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT THE WAVES AND WINDS TO DECREASE ENOUGH ON
MONDAY TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013
COLD WEATHER WILL HOLD ON MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A THAW IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEKEND. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE
TAKING A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN COULD BRING ENOUGH RAIN
AND SNOW MELT TO CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF PROBLEMS WITH ICE BREAKUP
ON THE RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ056-064-
071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MIZ073-074.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1156 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP
UPR TROF OVER E-CENTRL NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG
ALONG THE W COAST. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF PASSED OVER
THE UPR LKS THIS MRNG...BUT SHRTWV RDG/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
IN ITS WAKE IS DOMINATING THE CWA THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH LES CONTINUES
IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS WITH H85 TEMPS NOT FAR FM -20C...THESE
NEGATIVE DYNAMICS THAT ARE DROPPING INVRN BASE TOWARD H9 PER RUC
ANALYSIS AND ARRIVAL OF LLVL ACYC FLOW AS WELL AS VERY DRY AIRMASS
UPWIND OF LK SUP /12Z PWAT AT INL AND YPL WAS ABOUT 0.06 INCH/ ARE
LIMITING THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF THE BANDS. FARTHER UPSTREAM...
THERE ARE TWO SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD THRU THE NW FLOW ALF. THE FIRST
IS DIVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WHICH WL HAVE
A MORE DIRECT IMPACT IS HEADING SSEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS SFC RDG AXIS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV
PASSES SEWD THRU THE FA THIS EVNG...WINDS WL BACK STEADILY TO THE SW
THRU THIS EVNG. LINGERING LES BANDS WL BE SHIFTING STEADILY WITH THE
FLOW...AND IN CONCERT WITH MORE ACYC FLOW/LOWERING INVRN BASE LIMIT
ANY ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS. MEANWHILE...FIRST UPSTREAM SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO HEAD SEWD THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THE SHARPER
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEPER MSTR WL PASS TO THE SW OF THE WI
BORDER...EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN IN WI
EVEN THOUGH SOME CLDS WL ARRIVE. AREA OF SHARPER DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC/
MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH 2ND SHRTWV WL ARRIVE AFT MIDNGT. DRYNESS OF
AIRMASS WL LIMIT ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...BUT ARRIVAL OF ACCOMPANYING
LO PRES TROF OVER THE NW ZNS LATE/WSHFT TO THE W-NW THAT WL BRING
ABOUT SOME LK ENHANCEMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS ARND -18C/
DEEP MSTR JUSTIFIES GOING CATEGORICAL POPS IN THAT AREA. SINCE 12Z
NAM FCST PROFILE FOR CMX SHOWS UVV MAX WITHIN DENDRITIC SN GROWTH
LYR...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY SHSN JUST BEFORE 12Z THAT
COINCIDES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROF/SHARPER LLVL CNVGC. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS TO FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVNG TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE BUT THEN FALL ONLY SLOWLY OR PERHAPS RISE
WITH ARRIVAL OF MORE CLDS.
SUN...2ND SHRTWV IS FCST TO TRACK THRU LK SUP/ADJOINING ONTARIO ON
SUN MRNG...WITH ATTENDANT SFC TROF/WSHFT TO THE NW SWINGING ACRS THE
ERN CWA IN THE 15Z-18Z TIME. IN ITS WAKE...DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR
DVGC WL DOMINATE...DROPPING INVRN BASE OVER THE W TO 4-5K FT BY 18Z
BUT NOT OVER THE E UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SINCE THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL AS LO AS -23C OVER THE W
LATE IN THE DAY...RATHER SHORT FETCH LENGTH OVER THE W HALF OF LK
SUP...SHORTENED EVEN FURTHER BY RECENT ICE BUILDUP ALONG THE W SHORE
OF THE CWA...WL LIMIT LK MODERATION. WITH THE DGZ CONFINED TO ONLY A
SHALLOW NEAR SFC LYR...EXPECT SMALL SN FLAKE SIZE AND RATHER LIMITED
SN ACCUMS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF/HEAVIER SN BAND EARLY. EVEN
THOUGH H925 NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF ARE FCST TO BE NO HIER
THAN ABOUT 25KT WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY
BLSN...PRESENCE OF SN COVERED ICE OFFSHORE WL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
VSBY RESTRICTION. FOR THE W...OPTED TO GO WITH AN LES ADVY FOR
ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES BEGINNING AT 09Z AND EXTENDING
THRU THE DAY. FOR AREAS E OF MQT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SHSN
TO DVLP IN THE MRNG WITH PASSAGE OF TROF AND THEN MORE SUSTAINED
HEAVIER SHSN IN PREVAILING NW FLOW THRU THE AFTN. FCST PROFILE SHOW
DEEPER DGZ MAINTAINED BY MORE LK MOISTENING WL CAUSE BIGGER SN
FLAKES/HIER SN ACCUMS THAN OVER THE W. FOR ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT/
LUCE COUNTIES...OPTED TO BEGIN LONG DURATION LES WRNG AT 15Z. OVER
THE CENTRAL ZNS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/LIMITED ABSOLUTE MSTR...THERE
WL BE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLD-SCT -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER NORTHER HUDSON BAY FORECAST TO OPEN
UP AND LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO NUNAVUT CANADA. RESULT IS TROUGH AND
COLD AIR OVER GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD EASES MID-LATE WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ARE ON THE RISE OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN CONUS OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS /GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH/UKMET/ IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH LARGER SCALE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS COLD AIR IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY LK EFFECT SNOWS THAT KICK OFF ON SUNDAY. NW FLOW AREAS IN LINE
TO SEE THE MOST SNOW. IN THE WEST...SHORTER OVER-WATER FETCH RESULTS
IN LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5KFT AND LESS LAKE INDUCED CAPE.
TEMPS MAINLY BLO -20C IN THE LK EFFECT CONVECTIVE LAYER POINT TO NOT
AS MUCH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT GIVEN SMALL SNOWFLAKE SIZE THE
VSBY WILL BE POOR IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION...BLSN/DRSN MAY NOW BE MORE OF ISSUE ALONG SHORE DUE TO
THE ICE BUILDUP IN LAST FEW DAYS. BTWN THE VSBY ISSUES AND MODERATE
SNOW...WILL CARRY LK EFFECT SNOW ADVY THROUGH DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE EAST...ESPECIALLY FROM MUNISING EAST
ACROSS THE FAVORED SNOWBELTS NORTH OF M-28 TO THE NORTH OF NEWBERRY.
UNLIKE THE WEST...MUCH LONGER OVER-WATER FETCH RESULTS IN INVERSION
HEIGHTS TO 8KFT AND LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 700J/KG. ALSO UNLIKE THE
WEST...MORE OF THE DGZ IS WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT LAYER...LEADING TO
HIGHER SLR/S OVER 25:1. KEY FOR THE HEAVY SNOW WILL BE WHERE
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY STILL SOME DESCREPANCY HERE...WITH REGIONAL-GEM AND
GFS OVER LUCE COUNTY WHILE NAM AND NCEP WRF-ARW ALONG WITH LOCAL WRF
ARE FARTHER WEST MORE INTO ALGER COUNTY. NOTICED THAT NAM SFC
CONVERGENCE IS FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO H95 CONVERGENCE. SFC
CONVERGENCE PEGGED WESTERN EDGE OF LK EFFECT TODAY FAIRLY WELL...SO
FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR POPS. KEPT HIGHER SNOW IN THE SNOWBELTS OF
EASTERN ALGER COUNTY THROUGH NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY. FOR THOSE AREAS
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5-7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
3-6 INCHES ON MONDAY. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS
MAY FALL AS FAR WEST AS AU TRAIN/MUNISING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF
THE FARTHER WEST CONVERGENCE CAMP OF MODELS IS CORRECT. LK EFFECT
SNOW WARNING STARTS UP ON SUNDAY AND WILL JUST RUN IT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS BLYR WINDS DO NOT REALLY BACK MORE WNW UNTIL LATER
MONDAY AFTN. LINGERED HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MUNISING
ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT INVERSIONS LOWERING BLO 5KFT SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAKE TOLL ON INTENSITY OF LK EFFECT.
AWAY FROM THE LK EFFECT COLD WILL BE MAIN STORY. LGT WINDS AND DRY
AIRMASS LEADS TO POTENTIAL FOR MIN TEMPS WELL BLO ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS MONDAY LIKELY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
ONCE THE LK EFFECT SUBSIDES LATER MONDAY NIGHT...ATTN IS ON
APPROACHING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY DIVING IN FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS. NAM APPEARS FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF WAVE...RESULTING IN
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN WI/UPR
MICHIGAN. GFS/GEM-NH/ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH WITH ALL THE FORCING AND
ONLY GLANCE UPR MICHIGAN WITH SYSTEM SNOW. SEEMS THAT SHORTWAVE
WOULD TEND TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH GIVEN DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE BASICALLY BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND THOUGH 12Z GFS DID JOG NORTH SOME...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS KEEPING TRACK TO THE SOUTH. EVEN WITH A DIRECT HIT FROM
SYSTEM...LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS JUST SHY OF NORMAL
AND H7 MIXING RATIOS NOT EVEN 2G/KG...WOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO AN
INCH OR TWO. BIGGER IMPACT IS DOWNSTREAM OF LK MICHIGAN IN EASTERN
CWA...WHERE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WOULD BE PRESENT WITH H85 TEMPS
BLO -10C COMBINING WITH THE LARGER SCALE LIFT FROM SYSTEM MAYBE
COULD HELP GENERATE ADVY LEVEL SNOWS.
NEXT CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SEEMS TO
HAVE BETTER SHOT AT IMPACTING MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH SNOW. THOUGH
SFC LOW TRACKS WELL TO SOUTH ACROSS IA AND SOUTHERN WI...H85 TROUGH
IS FARTHER NORTH AND ALLOWS TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO UPR
MICHIGAN. TEND TO THINK HEAVIER QPF WILL END UP SOUTH OF CWA THOUGH
AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET PLACES BETTER UPR DIVERGENCE SOUTH
OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD SNOW OF 1-3"/2-4" COULD OCCUR
ACROSS CWA INTO THURSDAY. MAYBE SOME LK EFFECT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH BUT TEMPS ARE MODERATING BY THIS TIME AS H85 TEMPS ARE
ONLY DOWN TO AROUND -13C. CONTINUING MODERATION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY RESULTING IN LK EFFECT TO SHUT DOWN AND HIGH TEMPS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES. NEXT TROUGH AND
SNOW CHANCES ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
AT KCMX...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SFC TROF APPROACH
OVERNIGHT...MORE -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS. AS THE TROF PASSES TOWARD 12Z...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MDT/HVY SHSN
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROF/HEAVIER SHSN...LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
LINGER THRU MID/LATE AFTN AS LAKE EFFECT SHSN/SMALL SNOW FLAKES/SOME
BLSN EFFECTIVELY REDUCE VIS. AS -SHSN DIMINISH A BIT LATE IN THE DAY
WITH LOWER INVERSION...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY SETTLE AT LOW IFR
FOR THE EVENING HRS.
AT KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF DISTURBANCE/LOW PRES TROF. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF AND THEN PERSIST
AS LAKE EFFECT SHSN SET UP UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND TROF. WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO BACK JUST ENOUGH LATER IN THE AFTN FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR.
AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF TROF THIS MORNING AS VERY COLD AIR SURGES
BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013
WSW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL VEER NW LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF A LO PRES TROF PASSAGE. AS ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS POURS
OVER THE LAKE AND NW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS...EXPECT HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY TO DEVELOP OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ON SUN AND TO
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH BLO 25
KTS BY TUESDAY. EXPECT A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY
BLO 30 KTS. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL END THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MIZ001>003-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LSZ248-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
MONDAY FOR LSZ241>243-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1211 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
UPDATED FORECAST AS CLOUDS HAVE ABOUT CLEARED OUT OF FORECAST
AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO
FRESH NEW SNOW COVER DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR NORTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA...WITH
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF NEW SNOW FIELD. WINDS
TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
BYRD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THANKS TO A COMPACT AND POTENT NW FLOW VORT MAX...SOME RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND A POCKET OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...A NICE BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL LAST NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE ST LOUIS METRO. KUDOS
TO THE SAT AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH WAS THE SOLE MODEL
THAT COMPLETELY NAILED THE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THE SNOW HAS LONG
ENDED AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS PASSING THRU
FAR ERN MO AT THIS TIME. GOOD CAA IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH STRATUS IN THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW FROM
ERN MO INTO IL. CAA SHOULD CEASE BY MIDDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK WAA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN CENTRAL MO AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. IN RESPONSE THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO EXIT EASTWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ENSUING
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME
COMBINED WITH INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WOULD
SUPPORT MIN TEMPS OCCURING DURING THE EVENING AND THEN RISING
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IF THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER EVENING TEMP
FALL THAN CURRENTLY FCST. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS ERN OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS SE MO AND SRN IL BETWEEN 15-18Z MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE WAA REGIME AND EXPECTED ONSET OF
PCPN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
THAT WARMING COULD BE RETARDED A BIT BY DIABATIC COOLING. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DRIVING SEWD THRU
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN YET ANOTHER NW FLOW SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
A BIG PATTERN CHANGE WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE BROAD
LONG WAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN SENDING US THE PARADE OF NW FLOW
SHORT WAVES FINALLY DEPARTS WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE IN RESPONSE...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL THRU
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WITH EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES. ONE
OF THESE WAVES WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY
WITH AN ACCOMPANING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP WRN TROF.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS TROF MAY BRING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS AN INITIAL WAVE
MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.. OVERALL THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD
BE MARKED BY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF TAF SITES...SO MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT
TERM IS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SURFACE RIDGE IS QUICKLY
BUILDING IN...SO WINDS TO DIMINISH...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH AND PICKUP A BIT AS
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY MID EVENING. ALL OF THIS IS AHEAD
OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AFTER 12Z
MONDAY...EXITING TAF SITES BY 18Z MONDAY. WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PICKUP
TO AROUND 15KTS. AS FOR CLOUDS...JUST EXPECT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...THOUGH SOME MVFR SC POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER KUIN...AS
IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF METRO AREA...SO MAIN
ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SURFACE
RIDGE IS QUICKLY BUILDING IN...SO WINDS TO DIMINISH...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 23Z...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH AND PICKUP A BIT
AS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY 03Z MONDAY. ALL OF THIS IS
AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH KSTL BY 17Z
MONDAY. WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PICKUP TO AROUND 15KTS. AS FOR
CLOUDS...JUST EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
537 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THANKS TO A COMPACT AND POTENT NW FLOW VORT MAX...SOME RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND A POCKET OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...A NICE BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL LAST NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE ST LOUIS METRO. KUDOS
TO THE SAT AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH WAS THE SOLE MODEL
THAT COMPLETELY NAILED THE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THE SNOW HAS LONG
ENDED AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS PASSING THRU
FAR ERN MO AT THIS TIME. GOOD CAA IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH STRATUS IN THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW FROM
ERN MO INTO IL. CAA SHOULD CEASE BY MIDDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK WAA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN CENTRAL MO AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. IN RESPONSE THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO EXIT EASTWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ENSUING
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME
COMBINED WITH INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WOULD
SUPPORT MIN TEMPS OCCURING DURING THE EVENING AND THEN RISING
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IF THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER EVENING TEMP
FALL THAN CURRENTLY FCST. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS ERN OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS SE MO AND SRN IL BETWEEN 15-18Z MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE WAA REGIME AND EXPECTED ONSET OF
PCPN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
THAT WARMING COULD BE RETARDED A BIT BY DIABATIC COOLING. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DRIVING SEWD THRU
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN YET ANOTHER NW FLOW SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
A BIG PATTERN CHANGE WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE BROAD
LONG WAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN SENDING US THE PARADE OF NW FLOW
SHORT WAVES FINALLY DEPARTS WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE IN RESPONSE...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL THRU
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WITH EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES. ONE
OF THESE WAVES WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY
WITH AN ACCOMPANING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP WRN TROF.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS TROF MAY BRING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS AN INITIAL WAVE
MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.. OVERALL THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD
BE MARKED BY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THRU THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
SHUD REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THIS MORNING...BUT SHUD REMAIN VFR AND
MOVE E BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SLY TONIGHT AND
REMAIN BELOW 8 KTS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR AND DRY THRU THE PERIOD. NWLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING OUT AROUND THE SAME TIME. WINDS SLY TONIGHT AOB 10 KTS.
TILLY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
340 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THANKS TO A COMPACT AND POTENT NW FLOW VORT MAX...SOME RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND A POCKET OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...A NICE BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL LAST NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE ST LOUIS METRO. KUDOS
TO THE SAT AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH WAS THE SOLE MODEL
THAT COMPLETELY NAILED THE SNOWFALL FORECAST. THE SNOW HAS LONG
ENDED AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS PASSING THRU
FAR ERN MO AT THIS TIME. GOOD CAA IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH STRATUS IN THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW FROM
ERN MO INTO IL. CAA SHOULD CEASE BY MIDDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK WAA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN CENTRAL MO AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. IN RESPONSE THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO EXIT EASTWARD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ENSUING
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME
COMBINED WITH INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WOULD
SUPPORT MIN TEMPS OCCURING DURING THE EVENING AND THEN RISING
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW COVER COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IF THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER EVENING TEMP
FALL THAN CURRENTLY FCST. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS ERN OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS SE MO AND SRN IL BETWEEN 15-18Z MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE WAA REGIME AND EXPECTED ONSET OF
PCPN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
THAT WARMING COULD BE RETARDED A BIT BY DIABATIC COOLING. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DRIVING SEWD THRU
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN YET ANOTHER NW FLOW SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GLASS
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
A BIG PATTERN CHANGE WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE BROAD
LONG WAVE TROF THAT HAS BEEN SENDING US THE PARADE OF NW FLOW
SHORT WAVES FINALLY DEPARTS WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE IN RESPONSE...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL THRU
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WITH EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES. ONE
OF THESE WAVES WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY
WITH AN ACCOMPANING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP WRN TROF.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS TROF MAY BRING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS AN INITIAL WAVE
MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.. OVERALL THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD
BE MARKED BY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
A LOCALLY ENHANCED BAND OF SNOWFALL WAS MOVING OVER THE METRO AREA
TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE HOWEVER PCPN SHOULD END WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING.
PCPN HAS ENDED AT KCOU AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. PCPN HAS ALSO ENDED AT KUIN AND ALTHOUGH
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DID SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SERN IA
THAT WAS MOVING SEWD...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT KUIN WILL REMAIN JUST
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PCPN. INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NWLY AND INCREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT TONIGHT. NWLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTN.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...A LOCALLY ENHANCED BAND OF SNOWFALL WAS
MOVING OVER KSTL AT TAF ISSUANCE HOWEVER PCPN SHOULD END WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING. INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT TONIGHT. NWLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TOMORROW
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING BEFORE WINDS
SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTN.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1135 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CLIPPER SYS...IS RACING TOWARDS
THE FA THIS EVENING. HEADING TOWARDS THE SFC...THERE IS ALSO AN
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYS WITH THIS...IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LO PRES
STRAGGLING BEHIND IT AND A WRMFNT EXTENDING SWD AND A CDFNT
EXTENDING WWD.
THE CLIPPER SYS UPPER LEVEL PORTION IS SPLIT INTO TWO SECTIONS...
THE NRN PART OVER N-CNTRL IA...WHILE THE SRN PART IS OVER SWRN IA.
HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP THE SRN PART MORE EXTENSIVELY WITH TIME AND
EVENTUALLY THIS SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT PART AND WATCHING
DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN IN IA SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMING THIS. THEREFORE
IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN AXIS NEEDS TO BE SHIFTED MORE SWWD FOR THIS
STORM AS IT MOVES THRU THE FA...FROM NEAR MEXICO MO THRU THE STL
METRO AREA AND INTO SRN IL. NOT TO SAY IT WON/T PRECIPITATE
FURTHER NEWD...AS BROAD AREA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY INTACT AS IT
MOVES THRU...BUT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE DYNAMICALLY INDUCED
BANDS THRU THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THOUGH.
HOWEVER...UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN-TYPE WILL NOT BE ALL
SNOW ON THE SWRN EDGE WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME BETTER BANDING. RAP
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS NAM SUGGEST LO-ELEVATED WARM WEDGE OF AIR
AROUND 2-3KFT THAT WILL BE LOOSELY TIED TO THE SFC-TEMP IN THAT IT
SHOULD BE NEAR ISOTHERMAL BUT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME SLEET AND
RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL BUT ONLY ALONG THE EXTREME SWRN EDGE.
ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY IF NOT ALL SNOW.
UPDATED SNOW TOTALS REFLECT A MORE SWWD SHIFT...AND WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO INCH TOTALS FA-WIDE EXCEPT IN CNTRL AND
SERN MO. WHERE MESOSCALE BANDS SETUP...AND FALL AS SNOW...COULD
SEE OVER AN INCH...PERHAPS TWO. BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
JUST YET.
SFC WRMFNT WILL THEN PUSH THRU LATER TONIGHT AND RESULT IN NEAR-
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS BUT THEN FOLLOWED BY CDFNT WHEREBY
WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY TO 25-30MPH AND WILL LAST THRU
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
(TONIGHT)
LAST NIGHT/S SYSTEM MOVED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...NOW NEXT IN A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
CLOUDS ALREADY ON INCREASE WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING MAIN AREA OF
SNOW ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MN...
TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY 01Z AND QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS FORECAST
AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN MO AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL
THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STRENGTH...PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE...UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MO AS
WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IT WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF ON SNOW VS NO SNOW TO THE WEST. AS SNOW TAPERS OFF...CLOUDS
TO BEGIN CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...LOW 20S NORTHEAST PORTIONS TO UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
BYRD
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
(SUNDAY-THURSDAY)
UA PATTERN IS FORECAST BY ALL SOLUTIONS TO TRANSITION TO A ZONAL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK...HOWEVER STRONG FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE PARADE OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TONIGHT`S CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH N-S SURFACE RIDGE RAPIDLY PRESSING THROUGH AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL RACE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE DAY. MODEL CYCLES EARLIER IN THE WEEK HAD BEEN TRYING TO BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH DRY...BUT LAST NIGHTS 00Z RUNS AND TODAYS 12Z
OUTPUT HAVE BEEN GENERATING CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE..WHICH
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN MOISTURE INCREASE PROGGED INTO AREA TIED TO
UVV WITH SHORTWAVE. HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED GOING FORECAST TRENDS
WITH CHANCE POPS OVER ABOUT THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
THIS SYSTEM RACES EAST ON MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA WITH DRY AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODERATION OF AMS OVER REGION AS A RESULT OF THE TRANSITION OF THE
UA PATTERN SHOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF COOL AIR BEHIND TONIGHT`S
CLIPPER MAY DELAY THIS MODERATION HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL IN THE 40S
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH S SECTIONS OF THE CWA CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
BY THURSDAY.
(FRIDAY-SATURDAY)
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...ATTENTION TURNS TO STRONG STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SIMILAR ENOUGH WITH SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF
POPS BY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...SO PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN.
TRUETT
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
A LOCALLY ENHANCED BAND OF SNOWFALL WAS MOVING OVER THE METRO AREA
TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE HOWEVER PCPN SHOULD END WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING.
PCPN HAS ENDED AT KCOU AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. PCPN HAS ALSO ENDED AT KUIN AND ALTHOUGH
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DID SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SERN IA
THAT WAS MOVING SEWD...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT KUIN WILL REMAIN JUST
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PCPN. INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NWLY AND INCREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT TONIGHT. NWLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTN.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...A LOCALLY ENHANCED BAND OF SNOWFALL WAS
MOVING OVER KSTL AT TAF ISSUANCE HOWEVER PCPN SHOULD END WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING. INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT TONIGHT. NWLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TOMORROW
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING BEFORE WINDS
SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTN.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
528 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
.AVIATION...00Z TAF. STRATUS HAS MOVED FURTHER INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC THE STRATUS MAY WORK
WEST AGAIN...FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR LEVELS AND WILL MONITOR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT/TUESDAY
FOLLOWING A SFC TROUGH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED TO THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE CWA TODAY HAS STALLED
AND BEGUN TO MOVE BACK TO THE EAST. EARLIER STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IS CONTINUING TO ERODE...WITH MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA THE ONLY
AREA LEFT WITH APPRECIABLE STRATUS.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE STRATUS WELL AND THE ONLY MODEL TO
LATCH ON TO IT WELL THIS MORNING WAS THE HRRR. THE STRATUS IS
BURNING OFF ON THE WESTERN EDGE FASTER THAN THE HRRR INDICATES.
ALSO...THE HRRR INDICATES A WESTWARD PUSH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SCOURING OUT FOR GOOD AS THE WARM FRONT/TROUGH MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
HRRR IS LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE SITUATION...I AM BANKING ON THE
CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...EXCEPT THE HRRR...BUT THE HRRR ALSO
INDICATED REDUCED VISIBILITY THIS MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STRATUS AND THIS DID NOT COME TO FRUITION...SO I AM DISCARDING
THIS SOLUTION...AS WIND WILL BECOME WEST AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH
SOMEWHAT AS WELL.
NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO
WIND SPEED BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
STILL BANKING ON A WARMER DAY WITH INCREASED 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUN. WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE A BIT FROM
INCREASED LAPSE RATES...BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED
PARTICULARLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. CERTAINLY THE
MOST INTRIGUING ASPECT OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THE POTENTIALLY/
REPEAT POTENTIALLY/ IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IN THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...AND WHETHER IT RESULTS IN ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR
EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DAY 5-6 RANGE...WILL NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY
AT THIS TIME. IN THE NEARER PERIODS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR A POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW OF SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT LEAST FOR THE
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A
MILD TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AVERAGING UPPER 40S-
MID 50S.
STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE BE A QUIET PERIOD. 12Z
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AT THE
SURFACE...INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
STEADIER AND FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO AT LEAST 10-15 MPH IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES EAST AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVERHEAD PROVIDES A BIT OF MIXING. THIS
SETUP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY FAR...AND MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-UPPER 20S ALL AREAS. BOTH THE
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS HINT AT SOME FOG POTENTIAL NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS BELIEVE THE INCREASING BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ANY
FOG FROM AMOUNTING TO MUCH...EVEN IF IT WOULD TRY FORMING.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PICTURE ALOFT INVOLVES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REMAINING UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...AS A PROGRESSIVE...SLOWLY
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NORTHERN NEB/IA REGION. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...A
MILD...DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IS ANTICIPATED...AS SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PICK UP AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE ROUGHLY 5 MPH
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN THIS GOOD MIXING REGIME AND
SKIES AVERAGING NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY...LOOKING AT A
SEASONABLY WARM DAY AND PER SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS HAVE
RAISED HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...PUTTING MOST PLACES
GENERALLY 55-59. PER THE 18Z NAM...SOME WESTERN AREAS COULD EVEN
TOP 60...BUT KEPT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA BELOW 60 FOR NOW.
BY WED EVENING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS ALOFT WILL ENTER THE
LOCAL AREA...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS EVIDENT FROM 850MB TO THE
SURFACE...A MODEST COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH. AS THIS LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS INCREASING MOISTURE...VARIOUS MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT A CORRIDOR OF RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS. WHILE
THE 18Z NAM/12Z GEM KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST
OF OUR CWA...THE LATEST ECWMF/GFS RUNS AT LEAST BRUSH OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND BELOIT KS. CONTEMPLATED ADDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS FAR SOUTHEAST AREA...BUT GIVEN THIS IS
STILL 5 FORECAST PERIODS AWAY WILL MAINTAIN OUR PREVIOUSLY DRY
FORECAST AND LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A DRY 24
HOURS...AS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT ALOFT
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WED NIGHT THAT DEPARTS EASTWARD
ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY...AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM JUST
STARTING TO ORGANIZE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT COOLER THAN WED...AND BREEZES WILL BE LIGHTER...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL PLEASANT DAY. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS...WITH LOW 50S MOST AREAS.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THINGS START TO TURN MORE INTERESTING
ALOFT...AS THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS/GEM THAT A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE NV/AZ/UT BORDER AREA BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN A DRY
DAYTIME PERIOD AS FORCING REMAINS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WHILE AT THE SURFACE SOUTH BREEZES AVERAGE AT LEAST 15-20
MPH...WITH CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS POSSIBLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH.
NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS VERY SLIGHTLY...GETTING ALL BUT FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO AT LEAST 50 DEGREES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS SUGGESTS
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD INCREASE ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH THIS BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND LIKELY NOT
A MEASURABLE PRECIP RISK...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...THE 36-HOUR TIME FRAME BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT HOLDS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL TO BE VERY INTERESTING IN
SEVERAL POSSIBLE WAYS INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW...THUNDERSTORMS
AND STRONG GRADIENT WINDS THAT COULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A WHOLE LOT TO HAMMER OUT STILL BEING 5-6
DAYS AWAY...SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED SOME STANDARD
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE/UNCERTAINTY HIGH WORDING INTO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE REFRAINED FROM INTRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS YET. IN SHORT...THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT MAINTAINING THIS SYSTEM AS A COMPACT...POWERFUL CLOSED
LOW THAT COULD HAVE SOME LOCAL IMPACTS...WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A
MUCH MORE ELONGATED/LESS-FOCUSED UPPER SYSTEM WITH AT MOST ONLY A
MINOR/NUISANCE WINTRY SIDE. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT RANGE
FOR NOW...AS ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING IS 60+ PERCENT
LIKELY AT ANY GIVEN SPOT. FOCUSING ON WHAT CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH IN...ANY PRECIP THAT BREAKS OUT DAYTIME SATURDAY
SHOULD STAY IN LIQUID/SHOWERY FORM. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
ECWMF/GEM SOLUTIONS AGREE ON A FAIRLY VERTICALLY STACKED...STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR ALOFT IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT INSTEAD OF CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOVED THE RAIN/SNOW
TRANSITION LINE FARTHER NORTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THEN FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...TH LATEST ECWMF SOLUTION TAKES THE
TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE HEART OF THE
CWA...WHICH WOULD IN THEORY FOCUS THE BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST 1/2...AND MAYBE KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS
GOING IN SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN DURING THE EVENING. PLENTY OF CHANGES ARE LIKELY IN THE DETAILS
OVER THE COMING DAYS...AND WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT ITS STILL TOO
EARLY TO GET OVERLY CONCERNED.
GETTING BEYOND THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER-MAKER INTO MONDAY...EVEN THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION PULLS ALL PRECIP RISK AT LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE CWA...SO WILL ADVERTISE A DRY DAY. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS
IS QUITE LOW DEPENDING ON HOW THE WEEKEND SHAKES OUT...SO SIMPLY
WENT WITH ALLBLEND MODEL SOLUTION OF MID 30S MOST NEB ZONES...AND
NEAR 40 IN KS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1116 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT VALLEY CITY TO FORMAN
REGION IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THUS FEEL THE THREAT FOR
ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW IS NOW OVER. THUS DROPPED
THE ADVISORY WHICH WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER WX ADV FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA TIL 06Z. STRONGEST OF THE WINDS IN ERN SD
BUT STILL SOME GUSTS NR 30KTS VALLEY CITY TO GWINNER. BUT WINDS
DIMINISHING QUITE SOON LOOKING UPSTREAM AS PRESSURE RISE MOVES
INTO SW MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...AREA OF CLEARING MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO PARTS OF SE ND ATTM BUT CLOUDS IN CANADA MOVING BACK SOUTH
AND WOULD APPEAR CLEARING IN SE ND WILL NOT LAST LONG AND MOST
AREAS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION IS FAR
NORTHEASTER FCST AREA WHERE CLEARING OVER ERN MB/NW ONT NORTH OF
FLAG ISLAND MAY DROP SOUTH BY 12Z. KEPT THAT AREA STILL NR -10F
FOR LOWS TONIGHT OTHERWISE UPPED LOWS MOST AREAS TO STAY GENERALLY
5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT GET INTO ADV CRITERIA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW AT 0030Z JUST PAST WATERTOWN SD. MAIN WIND BELT HAS BEEN
FROM MINOT-WILLISTON THROUGH BISMARCK TO ABERDEEN TO WATERTOWN AS
MOST AREAS EXPERIENCED WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH FOR A TIME. THE
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN EVER SO SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE MAIN PRESSURE RISE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS EXPECT ONLY REAL ISSUE WITH WIND SPEEDS
30KTS OR SO WILL BE VALLEY CITY-LISBON-GWINNER AREAS WHILE THE
REST OF ERN ND TO SEE SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. THUS
DROPPED THE WINTER WX ADV FOR DVL REGION AND FOR WILKIN CO MN AS
MAIN WINDS TO STAY WEST OF THE RED RIVER. DID CONTINUE MENTION OF
-SN AND FLURRIES THRU MIDNIGHT IN MANY AREAS. SOME CLEARING MOVING
INTO CNTRL ND THIS EVE CLOSER TO MAIN SFC HIGH BUT ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA SO UNSURE HOW MUCH CLEARING
WILL GET EAST INTO ERN ND BEFORE CLOUDS MAY DROP BACK IN. NW MN
ESP LOOKS IFFY FOR MUCH CLEARING. WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT DID RAISE LOW TEMPS A BIT IN NE ND/NW MN AND WITH PROG
WINDS WIND CHILLS TO STAY IN THE -20 TO -25 RANGE AND OUT OF
ADVISORY RANGE.
AVIATION...
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT ENTER THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE 01Z-03Z
PERIOD MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE... LIGHT SNOW AND LOW END
VFR AND PATCHY MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST TIL 06Z AND THEN BE MOSTLY VFR
AREA WIDE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013/
SHORT TERM...
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SAT LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW THE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL ND...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
VALLEY. BEST RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM VALLEY CITY TOWARDS
FARGO...AND WEBCAMS SHOW SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A FEW OBS SITES
THIS MORNING WENT DOWN TO 1/4SM VIS BRIEFLY AS HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
MOVED OVER THEM...BUT QUICKLY IMPROVED WHEN SNOW BECAME LESS
INTENSE. OF GREATER IMPACT TO THE PUBLIC WILL BE THE WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE JAMESTOWN AREA. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND MANY HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT
OF BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE.
TRAJECTORY OF THE SFC LOW AND THE HIGH MSLP FALL/RISE
COUPLET WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS MAINLY IMPACTING OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RAP HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SFC
WINDS IN THE WEST SO HAVE FOLLOWED IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR GOOD MIXING TO THE SFC WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO THE WEST IN WESTERN BENSON COUNTY AND SHOULD START BLOWING IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
FRESH ACCUMULATION FROM KDVL DOWN TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
WITH FRESH SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VIS WILL BE A PROBLEM.
WITH THE WORST OF THE SFC WINDS JUST MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST...FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DEVILS LAKE
DOWN TO RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTIES...ALONG WITH RICHLAND AND WILKEN
COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR WESTERN CASS COUNTY FOR BLOWING
SNOW BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FARGO OUT OF IT AS IT SEEMS THAT THE
WORST WINDS WILL MISS THEM. WINDS SHOULD START TO COME DOWN BY MID
EVENING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND AROUND 06Z FURTHER SOUTH.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH
WINDS TAPERING OFF AND A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING IN BY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING BY MORNING...THERE COULD AGAIN
BE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILL VALUES
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTH BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE ONGOING WSW FOR BLOWING SNOW AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUDS WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SO KEPT
HIGHEST POPS FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS THE LAKES COUNTRY FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BUT THINK THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER MOST OF THE REGION SO KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WITH SOME TEENS IN THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE A REINFORCING SURGE
OF COLD AIR SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP LOWS MOSTLY BELOW
ZERO.
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BY MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE. THE PARADE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY LOW...BUT OVERALL THIS SYSTEM SEEMS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW SYSTEMS. STILL PRETTY
UNCERTAIN SO INCLUDED JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BUMP UP. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND SOME WARMER AIR GETTING INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. STARTED BRINGING LOWS IN THE TEENS INTO THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS UP INTO THE TEENS TO 20S FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION MORE TO A ZONAL FLOW
AND THEN BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BRIEF RIDGING FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS SEEM PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA ON WED/WED NIGHT. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH MILDER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE
AREA. STILL LOOKING TO TURN A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BY SATURDAY
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A COLORADO LOW TAKING SHAPE. AT THIS
POINT THIS SYSTEM WOULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FA MORE THAN THE NORTH
BUT IT IS A LONG WAYS OFF YET. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS HAVE IN STORE FOR THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1130 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST/
SET UP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH A WARM FRONT SITTING
OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA. DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT MOST OF OUR CWA WILL
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY SNOW WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BEING CONFINED TO OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH DID INCREASE POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN OUR NORTHEAST
WITH CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ALREADY MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAP AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS COVER THIS
TIMING THE BEST...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME. UPDATES OUT.
/JM
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE LOWER CLOUDS WILL RESIDE
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
PICKING UP AFTER 04Z. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH STRATUS MAY LINGER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 420 AM CST/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WHILE A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM FRONT. THIS WILL SET UP
A RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL STRATUS WILL
TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO OUR
EASTERN HALF AND THIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS NEAR 50 TODAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR HIGHS. WARMING
WILL BE MORE OF STRUGGLE IN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PREVALENT AND HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
MID OR UPPER 20S.
MID LEVEL CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GLANCE OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE
WEAK BOUNDARY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND
JUST OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK BEST.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 90+ IN OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS
PRETTY LIMITED WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW IS REASONABLE NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA. EXPECT
STRATUS TO BUILD THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL FLURRY ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY
BREEZY. WITH STRATUS IN PLACE...STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO MUCH OF MONDAY WITH
PRETTY WEAK FLOW LOCKED IN FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES
TO COOL HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM HIGHS TODAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER
QUICKLY DIVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAKING
FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE READINGS
SLOWLY CLIMB OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CRUX OF THIS SYSTEM PASSING OUTSIDE
OF THE CWA...EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP MID WEEK WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
DO DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MILD IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HEDGED
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE ALLBLEND HERE WITH THE ECMWF EVEN
SUGGESTING THAT 50 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KICKING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NO REAL COLD AIR
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP ON THURSDAY
BUT IS REPLACED BY A SHIFT TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HEADS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH
DAYS CONTINUE THE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
GOES ASKEW FOR THE WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO A VERY LARGE TROUGH OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE WHICH ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PLAINS AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER...DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN IMPACT DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECIDED TO NOT ADJUST THE ALLBLEND POPS GIVEN A GREAT DEAL OF TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. THIS PAINTS HIGH END CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE CWA FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
WARM SYSTEM MOVING IN. INITIALLY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR RAIN WHICH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1010 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SET UP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH A WARM FRONT SITTING
OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA. DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT MOST OF OUR CWA WILL
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY SNOW WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BEING CONFINED TO OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...THOUGH DID INCREASE POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN OUR NORTHEAST
WITH CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ALREADY MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAP AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS COVER THIS
TIMING THE BEST...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME. UPDATES OUT.
/JM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 420 AM CST/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WHILE A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM FRONT. THIS WILL SET UP
A RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL STRATUS WILL
TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO OUR
EASTERN HALF AND THIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS NEAR 50 TODAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR HIGHS. WARMING
WILL BE MORE OF STRUGGLE IN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PREVALENT AND HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
MID OR UPPER 20S.
MID LEVEL CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GLANCE OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE
WEAK BOUNDARY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND
JUST OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK BEST.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 90+ IN OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS
PRETTY LIMITED WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW IS REASONABLE NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA. EXPECT
STRATUS TO BUILD THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL FLURRY ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY
BREEZY. WITH STRATUS IN PLACE...STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO MUCH OF MONDAY WITH
PRETTY WEAK FLOW LOCKED IN FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES
TO COOL HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM HIGHS TODAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER
QUICKLY DIVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAKING
FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE READINGS
SLOWLY CLIMB OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CRUX OF THIS SYSTEM PASSING OUTSIDE
OF THE CWA...EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP MID WEEK WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
DO DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MILD IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HEDGED
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE ALLBLEND HERE WITH THE ECMWF EVEN
SUGGESTING THAT 50 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KICKING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NO REAL COLD AIR
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP ON THURSDAY
BUT IS REPLACED BY A SHIFT TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HEADS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH
DAYS CONTINUE THE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
GOES ASKEW FOR THE WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO A VERY LARGE TROUGH OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE WHICH ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PLAINS AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER...DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN IMPACT DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECIDED TO NOT ADJUST THE ALLBLEND POPS GIVEN A GREAT DEAL OF TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. THIS PAINTS HIGH END CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE CWA FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
WARM SYSTEM MOVING IN. INITIALLY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR RAIN WHICH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FOR MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING TAF SITES VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
04/06Z WITH VARYING CLOUDS AND SOME CEILINGS AOA 6K FEET. FOR THE
AREA FROM BKX TO MJQ AND NORTHEAST...OR MOSTLY IN SOUTHWEST MN...VFR
THROUGH 22Z WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING AREAS OF CEILINGS 1-3K
FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SNOW 22Z-04/01Z...THEN AREAS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES BLO 3SM AFTER 04/01Z. 04/06Z-12Z SNOW IN THIS AREA WILL
DECREASE BUT CEILINGS 1-3K FEET WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD SOUTH OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
230 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
SNOW SNOW AND MORE SNOW. IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ON A NEARLY EVERYDAY BASIS.
LATEST 88-D IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN...TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. THE HRRR IS DOING A DECENT JOB CAPTURING
THIS...ABOUT THE ONLY MESO MODEL THAT IS. IT IS NOT PART OF THE
MAIN SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT...WHICH WILL MOVE IN EARLY THIS EVENING.
STILL...THIS LIGHT SNOW COULD RESULT IN TRACE-COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AS IT MOVES ACROSS.
A BAND OF SNOW WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS IA BY MONDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY STRONG
SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH/SFC
LOW...WITH SOME -EPV ON THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS
LIFT...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED BANDING. STRONG 275-290
K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH A GOOD PUNCH OF QG CONVERGENCE -
ESPECIALLY IN THE 850:700 MB LAYER. MESO MODELS AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SUGGEST THERE IS GOING TO BE A NARROW BAND OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...
MOSTLY IN THE FRONTOGENETIC REGION. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL. NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS SUGGEST THE
DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE NORTH OF A RST-KLSE LINE...AWAY
FROM THE STRONGEST LIFT. THE STRONGER LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED BANDING COULD OFFSET THE RELATIVELY LOWER RATIOS IN THE
SOUTH. THAT SAID...OVERALL A 20-25:1 RATIO LOOKS REASONABLE...AND
PUTS 3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE FAVORED SNOW AREAS. ISOLATED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPANDED THE ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
LEAVE AS CURRENTLY CONFIGURED FOR TONIGHT.
WITH A LOT OF PEOPLE OUT AT SUPERBOWL PARTIES...THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TRAFFIC LATER THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL BE
FALLING AND THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL ALSO
BE IMPACTED.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING DROPS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT THIS GO AROUND THE 03.12Z GFS AND NAM FAVOR A BIT
MORE NORTHERN TRACK. FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.
DECENT AMOUNT OF QG CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH
UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K ISENTROPIC SFCS. SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE IN THE 900-800MB ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. NOT
NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT...BUT PACKS ENOUGH OF A
PUNCH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DON/T INDICATE A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP RATIOS LOWER...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS.
15:1 SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 1-2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...MORE LIKELY NORTH/EAST OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR. WHILE AN ADVISORY SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...TIMING WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FALLING DURING THE
MORNING RUSH.
FINALLY...THE CABOOSE FOR THIS TRAIN OF NORTHWEST SHORTWAVES ARRIVES
WED NIGHT...WITH AGAIN GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM.
COULD BE A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WORKING IN CONCERT DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN ELEMENT OF MOISTURE RETURN/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF IT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS...DEVELOPING QPF IN THIS
REGION...ALONG AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. SNOW RATIOS LOOK MORE IN
THE 15:1 RATIO...AND THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH PRETTY QUICK. DON/T
ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
230 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
FINALLY...A BREAK FROM THE NEARLY DAILY SNOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THU NIGHT/FRI. ITS A SHORT LIVED BREAK THOUGH AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE
STRENGTH...SPEED...AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH ALSO IMPACTS
AMOUNTS. PTYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS THERE WILL BE A GOOD SURGE
OF WARMER AIR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. THE GFS IS THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/QPF AND WARMING. IT HAS A LOT
MORE QPF...ESPECIALLY OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE REGION. BOTH AGREE THERE WILL BE A
DEFORMATION REGION OF SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW...WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. IT WOULDN/T BE THE FLUFFY...EASY TO MOVE SNOW
EITHER. ITS DEFINITELY A STORM THAT BEARS A CLOSE WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1126 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT KRST AROUND 03.22Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 04.01Z.
ONCE THIS OCCURS...CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AND VISIBILITIES WILL
DROP TO AROUND 1 MILE. THE SNOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE AROUND 04.13Z
AT KRST AND AROUND 04.14Z AT KLSE. SNOW TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITIES
TO RAPIDLY BECOME VFR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2013
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ032-033-041-042-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
MONDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ009>011-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
230 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
THE TRAIN OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES CONTINUES.
TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MIGRATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WEAK 2-D
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE AT 900 MB WITH THE FEATURE...ALONG WITH WEAK
QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE 850-300 MB LAYER. SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ON THE 280-290 K SFCS THIS EVENING...MOST OF WHICH EXITS EAST AFTER
06Z. GOOD DENDRITIC ZONE GROWTH //DGZ// REGION THOUGH...FROM 700 MB
TO THE SFC FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...WHEN THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING.
RATIOS OF 30:1 ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THIS SCENARIO. THIS SHORTWAVE
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AS PERKY AS THE ONE LAST NIGHT...AND WILL HAVE
EVEN LESS QPF. SO...EXPECT LESS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SOME CONCERN THAT
IT MIGHT MISS A BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LATEST HRRR AND ARW
MESO MODELS SUGGESTING THAT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL IA. THE NAM12/GFS40 SHOW SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT STILL
PAINT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO NORTHERN WI. WILL TREND THE HIGHER POPS
TO THE SOUTH.
SHORTWAVE NUMBER 4 SPINS ACROSS IA SUNDAY NIGHT...EXITING OVER THE
OH RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE IS MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE...AS IS THE QG CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
THE DGZ ISN/T AS DEEP AS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...AND WITH PREVIOUS
SHORTWAVES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP RATIOS CLOSER TO 15/20:1.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL COMPARABLE WITH PRODUCING A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND
OF QPF...FOCUSED ON THE FRONTOGENETIC REGION...AND CENTER IT ROUGHLY
AROUND A ROCHESTER TO RICHLAND CENTER LINE. SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE BAND...3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AT THIS TIME...BUT SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE
TO EVALUATED.
COME TUE...SURPRISE...SHORTWAVE NUMBER 5 DROPS FROM CANADA TO ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI. GFS AND NAM BOTH AGREE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK TO THIS WEATHER FEATURE...BRINGING THE BETTER SNOW
CHANCES TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER
INCH...PERHAPS TWO...LOOKS LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
230 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
VERY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT SEE THE CABOOSE WED NIGHT/THU
MORNING...WITH THE EC AND GFS SPINNING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT...REINFORCED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON PTYPES WITH THIS EVENT AS WARMER AIR WILL
BE RETURNING...AND A POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD AS THE SYSTEM
STARTS TO EXIT EAST. WON/T GET OVERLY DETAILED WITH GRIDS AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED WINTER PCPN WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
THE GFS AND EC FAVOR BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTH
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRIVING IT ACROSS THE REGION SAT/SUN. DIFFERENCING
IN STRENGTH AND POSITION...AND SOME VARIANCE IN TIMING. BOTH WOULD
LAY DOWN A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW...BUT ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME
RAIN/WINTER MIX ON ITS SOUTHEAST SIDE. THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS TO
PACK MUCH MORE OF A PUNCH THAN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
1120 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
THE SURFACE LOW HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE
IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER BETWEEN KAEL AND KFRM. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
MAIN SNOW BAND IS NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WILL
MOVE EAST OF KLSE SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. STILL SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW UPSTREAM TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
OBSERVATIONS OVER MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF SOME DRY AIR WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT. THIS DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF ONLY
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
CLOUDS ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE BETTER FORCING THAN THIS EVENINGS SYSTEM
WITH UP TO 20 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
SUNDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
WARM FRONT JUST TO SOUTH OF THE AREA. WEAK TO MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE 850-500 MB
LAYER...WHICH SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
OF 3 TO 5 UBAR/S WILL ALSO OCCUR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE YET ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. LOOK
FOR THIS START MOVING IN AROUND 00Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH THE VISIBILITY GOING DOWN TO IFR WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF THE SNOW BEGINNING. IMPROVEMENTS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
230 PM CST SAT FEB 2 2013
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1154 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE SENT GRID/ZFP UPDATE TO BUMP UP POPS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY
20 CORRIDOR BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SOME OF RECENT RAP MODEL
GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE QUICK HITTING WARM ADVECTION WING BAND
OF SNOW TO SWEEP DOWN NEAR HWY 20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 09Z-12Z
PRODUCING QUICK DUSTING TO COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013/
AVIATION...
CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS ON TUE. FAST MOVING BAND OF WARM ADVECTION
SNOW INTO FAR NORTHERN IA WILL SLIDE E/SE OVERNIGHT AND
MAY IMPACT KDBQ TERMINAL ROUGHLY 09Z-11Z WITH BRIEF SHOT
OF 2-5SM VSBYS WITH CIGS 1500-2500 FT AGL BEFORE LIFTING E
BY 12Z. ELSEWHERE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUE AM IN
WARM SECTOR OF STORM WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW AND BRIEF
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS TO BRUSH MAINLY KDBQ TERMINAL TOWARD
MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SYSTEM PASSING NEARBY.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-80 BY TUE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WITH WINDS VEERING DURING THIS TIME TO W/NW AT
10-15 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES UNTIL SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE POISED JUST UPSTREAM WITH
AXIS LOCATED FROM NORTH OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...TO DOWN ACRS NORTH
CENTRAL KS. LLVL CLOUDS/STRATOCU HAVE REALLY DECAYED ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 IN AFTERNOON SUBSIDENCE BEHIND PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACRS
CENTRAL IL. SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUING NORTHWEST OF ND...WITH SFC
PRESSURE FALLS INCREASING DOWN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ELONGATED CLIPPER
TYPE WAVE NOTED ACRS WEST CENTRAL ALBERTA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LOOP.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
TONIGHT...CHALLENGING TEMP FCST TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO CLEARING
SKIES OVER SNOW COVER AND DECREASING WINDS WITH ARRIVAL OF THE SFC
RIDGE THIS EVENING. EXPECT A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET IN AREAS
THAT ARE MAINLY CLEAR OR JUST GETTING SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS
STARTING TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.
ONGOING NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH ADVECTING LOWER SFC DPTS AND
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK AND SOME DURATION OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. BUT HOW LONG THE SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY IS AT QUESTION...
AGAIN WITH THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS THE EASTERN PLAINS
STREAMING THIS WAY. WILL PLAY THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN
UNDERCUT THEM ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA EXPECTING A
QUICK DIURNAL DROP...BUT MAY BE GOING TOO COLD IN THE NORTHWEST IF
THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS KEEP THERE CURRENT PACE AND THICKENING TRENDS.
CLOUDS MOVING/DECAYING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CWA ALSO A CHALLENGE AND
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...BUT AGAIN UPSTREAM CLOUDS INCREASING ACRS CENTRAL IA ON
TARGET TO FLOW BACK ACRS THE AREAS SOON AFTER. MILDER LOWS IN THE
SOUTH REMAINING IN THE TEENS. AS THE SFC LOW/REFLECTION OF INCOMING
CLIPPER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MIGRATE ACRS CENTRAL MN ALONG
TIGHTER LLVL BAROCLINIC RIBBON BY 12Z TUE...INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW SOUTHEAST OF IT TO PRODUCE NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL SATURATION
LOOK MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH FOR ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/CONVERGENT WINDS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACRS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE DVN CWA FROM MIDNIGHT INTO
SUNRISE. DUSTING POSSIBLE ALONG HWY 20 BY SUNRISE.
TUESDAY...WILL UTILIZE THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE FOR TUE AS IT
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT GENERAL SOLUTION. IT SUGGESTS THE SFC LOW TO
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEAST OF THE MADISON
WI AREA BY 18Z TUE...THEN OFF TO LOWER MI BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING DRAWS CLOSER...BUT STILL AFR ENOUGH FOR
ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION TO REMAIN ACRS THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
CWA. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST ACCEPTED EXTENT OF FORCING...
SATURATION AND LSR/S OF 13:1 TO 15:1...AREAS FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF
DBQ...TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IL TO GET ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO.
AREAS 20 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THAT LINE JUST A DUSTING...AND ONLY
FLURRIES FROM THERE DOWN TO I80. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WARM DRAW
SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TO BOOST TUE HIGH TEMPS TO AROUND 30 NORTH OF
I80...TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. A 40 POSSIBLE
AROUND THE MACOMB AREA AND OTHER LESS SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW TO START TO MIGRATE OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS TUE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ..12..
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS ON MIXED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ECMWF
HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN THE LONG TERM AND HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON
THIS MODEL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WHERE SNOW DEPTHS ARE CURRENTLY 6 TO 8 INCHES.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO
TEENS TO NEAR 20 SOUTH. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
WEDNESDAY RETURNING SOUTH WINDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 20S FAR
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S WHERE BARE GROUND EXISTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY BUT WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING IN EASTERN IA. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD OVER ALL THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND WET
BULBS NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN OUR NORTH. LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BIT COLDER AIR ALOFT ON THURSDAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THIS EVENT WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS .10 TO .25.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE
12Z RUN HAS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM SOMEWHAT WITH THE RAIN NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL EITHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. WATER VAPOR
LOOPS CURRENTLY SHOW A POTENT WAVE ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF SEATTLE.
WITH BLOCKING TO THE NORTH THE WAVE IS FORCED TO DIVE INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. THE
12Z RUN IS SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
WHICH IS A NORTHWARD SHIFT FROM THE 00Z RUN. THIS SYSTEM WOULD GIVE
THE ENTIRE CWA A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
WITH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AN INCH. THE UPPER LOW FORMS A NICE CLOSED
CIRCULATION WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW COMING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS
AROUND THE SYSTEM. WAY TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS ON SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
THE MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TRACK WHEN THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK BEGINS SAMPLING THE WAVE LATER THIS WEEK.
HAASE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1148 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW STILL IN PLACE
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER NW KANSAS.
OTHER THAN PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN NW FLOW TONIGHT...THERE IS
WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED CONDITIONS TONIGHT VERSUS
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW. THERE MAY BE WEAK
FORCING WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
H7-H5 VORT MAX PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...I AM ANTICIPATING MILD/DRY CONDITIONS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE MADE NO IMPROVEMENT AND
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. ECMWF BRINGS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH WIND AND SNOW.
GFS IS MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...GENERALLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
PERIOD. WITH NO REAL REASON TO FAVOR EITHER SOLUTION...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIODS. THE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT COLD FOR
FEBRUARY...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. LIGHT WEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY MORNING
AT BOTH SITES AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA. WIND WILL SHIFT SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...032
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1132 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS AT 20Z. STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS
AFTERNOON AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 HAVE REMAINED CLEAR TODAY.
LATEST RAP 13 RELATIVE HUMIDITY PLOTS KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS
SATURATED THROUGH THE EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT THIS AFTERNOON...STATUS MAY MOVE BACK SOUTH
OR REFORM AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS NORTH OF I-70 THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 20S
ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST...NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
OCCURRING AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH MID DAY
TUESDAY BEFORE COOL ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER. THE HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S.
53
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I 70. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IN THE
PACIFIC ADVANCES QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
IT WILL RESULT IN A RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING...SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARYING ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE WEEKEND TROUGH THAT
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN REGARD TO HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS IN PROXIMITY
TO THE SHARP TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS KEEP THIS TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH
WHICH RESULTS IN A WEAKER AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ADVANCING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE THE UKMET/GEM/EC CONTINUE MORE IN LINE WITH
PAST SOLNS IN EJECTING THE PRIMARY TROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MORE CONTINUITY WITH WITH
PREVIOUS FCSTS AND LEAN TOWARDS THE EC WHICH STILL BRINGS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT AND COLDER
AIR WORK INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WY...PRECIP SHOULD END BY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRIER
AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND MIDDLE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...READINGS COOL INTO THE 40S
FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. 63
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE CALM WINDS...AREAS OF BR WERE BEING
REPORTED NEAR KMHK AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VIS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY
MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
ACH
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1031 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW STILL IN PLACE
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER NW KANSAS.
OTHER THAN PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN NW FLOW TONIGHT...THERE IS
WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED CONDITIONS TONIGHT VERSUS
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW. THERE MAY BE WEAK
FORCING WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
H7-H5 VORT MAX PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN EXTENT OF RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...I AM ANTICIPATING MILD/DRY CONDITIONS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RESPONSE ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE
MODELS SUGGEST INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS...AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
LIKELY FORCE H85 AND H7 FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WHICH WOULD MAKE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AS FAR NORTH OF THE CWA
UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
IN THE EXTENDED(FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF STRONG H5 TROUGH DURING THE
WEEKEND AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP/WINTER STORM IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH RESPECT TO 12Z OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF/GEM AND GEM MEAN INDICATING A FARTHER
EAST MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA WHILE GFS AND
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING A FURTHER WEST SYSTEM
THAT IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS
POINT...HARD TO PICK A FAVORITE CLUSTER WHILE TOTALLY IGNORING OTHER
POSSIBLE SCENARIO. THE ECMWF GROUP WOULD SUPPORT A SIG PRECIP THREAT
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WHILE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH LESS
PRECIP AND OVERALL SMALLER IMPACT. FOR THE TIME BEING...THINK
KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE IS WARRANTED AND STAYING TOWARDS
CONSENSUS DATA WARRANTED UNTIL BETTER SIGNAL DEVELOPS AND CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF SYSTEM BEFORE
SNOW DEVELOPS AS SYSTEM EXITS AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. WHILE THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...FOR REASONS MENTIONED
ABOVE FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY TO REALLY KEY IN ON THIS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST MON FEB 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. LIGHT WEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY MORNING
AT BOTH SITES AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA. WIND WILL SHIFT SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...032
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
SUBTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE FIRST PERIOD /EVENING AND OVERNIGHT/
FORECAST PRIMARILY TO HANDLE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/SKY COVER/WIND
CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITHT HE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. THE 5KM DOWNGRADED NAM-WRF...3KM HRRR AND 2.5 KM GFS
LAMP SEEM TO HANDLE THE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS THE BEST
THIS EVENING. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WILL BE
TRANSITORY...BUT WE MAY SEE MORE FROST OVERNIGHT SHOULD THE CLOUDS
THIN SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
MINOR CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS BARELY MEASURING...AND THEN ONLY HERE AND
THERE. WOULD EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY 00Z...BUT SOME MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE LIGHT RAIN...MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST OR
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD UP THE OHIO VALLEY...THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED MORE EAST THAN SOUTH...BASICALLY
DRAGGING ITS HEELS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE WIND
SHIFT A BIT...BUT IT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEN AT
LEAST A TRANSIENT INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD NEAR 12Z
TUESDAY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CALL. WENT NEAR
CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BIT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IF CLOUDS/FOG PERSIST IT MAY BE TOO COOL.
THE MODELS AGREE IN QUICKLY DEVELOPING RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF WHAT SHOULD BE THE FINAL CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS WEEK.
THIS CLIPPER WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING IN
OUR AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED...HAVE NO PROBLEM GOING WITH THE WARMER 12Z CONSENSUS FOR
HIGHS.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS HIGH WILL LINGER A
BIT LONGER DUE TO A TRANSITION TOWARD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS
ALSO AGREE ON A TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS FOR
THURSDAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z THURSDAY.
STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...BUT AN EAST WIND MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT COOL...BUT DID NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FROM IT. WILL HAVE WARM ADVECTION ONGOING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO WOULD BET ON THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PAH FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING ON THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE GFS HANGS THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY...THUS
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...AND KEPT FRIDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL HELP BRING MORE MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH ECMWF OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 00Z
MONDAY...AND GFS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE SAME
TIME. BOTH MODELS SHOW A LITTLE PRECIP IN AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER
WITH EACH RUN...SO WILL KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. BOTH MODELS SPREAD
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FA...AND THIS KEEPS SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR
REGION MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
WENT WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013
MVFR VSBYS AT KCGI BETWEEN 09-15Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 07Z AT KPAH...THEN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 10-15Z. AT KEVV AND KOWB MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO IFR TERRITORY THROUGH 08-09Z...MVFR
VSBYS THROUGH 15-16Z...THEN VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 5
KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KTS AFTER 15-16Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JP
PUBLIC...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
IN THE SHORT TERM.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BACKING WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION ARE
PUSHING REMAINING LES OFFSHORE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI...WITH A FEW
TRANSIENT LES BANDS REMAINING NEAR THE SHORE. HAVE THUS CANCELED THE
LES WARNING...THOUGH A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UPPER MI. LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS GIVEN A SIMILAR SETUP TO
LAST NIGHTS SUBSTANTIAL COOLING.
MAIN FOCUS IS ON A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN A
LITTLE FUZZY...WITH THE RUC PLACING THE BULK OF PRECIP IN UPPER
MI...THE NAM AND REGIONAL GEM PUTTING MOST ALONG THE WI BORDER...AND
THE GFS PLACING NEARLY ALL PRECIP IN NORTHERN WI. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND AS THE CONSENSUS TREND HAS BEEN TO BRING
THINGS SLIGHTLY NORTH.
PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AN AREA OF 850 TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS.
THE MOST ACTIVE LAYER IS NOT CLEAR...BUT BELIEVE THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE BETWEEN 750 AND 800MB. A FAIRLY DECENT LAYER OF 150 TO 200MB
WITHIN THE BEST RISING MOTION WILL BE IN THE DGZ. BOOSTED SNOW
RATIOS TO THE LOW 20S GIVEN THIS SET UP. OVERALL...KEPT TOTAL QPF OF
0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES...PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG
THE WI BORDER...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS PUSHES 50
MILES EITHER WAY GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND NARROW FEATURE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE EVENT AS THERE IS TOO LOW OF
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN ANY ADVISORIES ATTM. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN SNOW SHIELD WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THEN...A
WELL DEFINED TROUGH BEHIND THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A QUICK
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH IS SETUP IN EASTERN CANADA. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND H850
TEMPS AROUND -19C...EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE CLIPPER TO LEAD TO A BRIEF UPTICK IN THE
LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE EVENING AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT DUE TO WEAKENING WINDS WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE...BUT WITH
THE DGZ LOCATED RIGHT IN THE BEST OMEGA AND CLOUD LAYER...WOULD
THINK THAT THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS WOULD SEE A DUSTING
TO A FLUFFY COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MORE VARIABLE AND BACKING WINDS
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS SEEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING
THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH THE BEST/SHARPEST
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. BUT EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH WAA AND MID LEVEL
FGEN TO LEAD SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST MID LEVEL FGEN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT DOES
TRY TO PIVOT SOMEWHAT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS PIVOT
CONTINUES AND WHERE IT LINES UP IN FUTURE RUNS...AS IT COULD LEAD TO
SOME INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND AND H850 TEMPS AROUND -9C SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. WIND FIELDS VARY FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE MODELS...SO DIDN/T TRY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC OTHER THAN
TWEAKING POPS/QPF UP SLIGHTLY IN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS LOOKS TO PRODUCE
0.15-0.25 INCHES OF QPF...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTH/EASTERN CWA. THIS DOES SEEM TO MATCH UP WITH THE NORTH EDGE OF
THE BETTER H850-700 WAA AND RESULTING FGEN...ALONG WITH THE RIGHT
REAR OF THE UPPER JET. THIS PRODUCES A GENERAL 2-4INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE MUCH COLD AIR SURGING
IN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WEST COAST. THINKING THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUIETER PERIOD
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY STRETCHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WITH LIMITED COLD AIR AND WINDS BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO ANY LAKE EFFECT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY AND
DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN...AS MODELS DIFFER
IN HOW THE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SW CONUS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR POPS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST DAY/NIGHT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013
OVERNIGHT...FOCUS IS ON LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF SNOW MOVING
SE TOWARD THE AREA. SNOW WILL BEGIN AT OR NEAR THE START OF THE FCST
PERIOD AT KIWD...SOON AFTER AT KCMX AND LATER IN THE NIGHT AT KSAW.
VIS WILL LIKELY FALL TO LOW IFR AT KIWD FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT
AND PERHAPS EVEN TO LIFR FOR A TIME. KCMX AND KSAW SHOULD BE A
LITTLE MORE REMOVED FROM THE HEAVIER SNOW...BUT STILL EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS PER UPSTREAM OBS...AND CAN`T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE SNOW
FALLS...SO BLSN IS NOT A CONCERN. FROM NW TO SE...SNOW WILL DIMINISH
AND POSSIBLY END FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT N
TO NW TODAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAILING. BETTER UPSLOPE AT KIWD MAY LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST MON FEB 4 2013
EXPECT WEST WINDS OF UNDER 25 KNOTS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN VEER NORTH TO 20
TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND A TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1203 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGRI
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 05/16Z...BEFORE WINDS SHIFT AND
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH LATE TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CST MON FEB 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED TO THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE CWA TODAY HAS STALLED
AND BEGUN TO MOVE BACK TO THE EAST. EARLIER STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IS CONTINUING TO ERODE...WITH MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA THE ONLY
AREA LEFT WITH APPRECIABLE STRATUS.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE STRATUS WELL AND THE ONLY MODEL TO
LATCH ON TO IT WELL THIS MORNING WAS THE HRRR. THE STRATUS IS
BURNING OFF ON THE WESTERN EDGE FASTER THAN THE HRRR INDICATES.
ALSO...THE HRRR INDICATES A WESTWARD PUSH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SCOURING OUT FOR GOOD AS THE WARM FRONT/TROUGH MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
HRRR IS LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE SITUATION...I AM BANKING ON THE
CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...EXCEPT THE HRRR...BUT THE HRRR ALSO
INDICATED REDUCED VISIBILITY THIS MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STRATUS AND THIS DID NOT COME TO FRUITION...SO I AM DISCARDING
THIS SOLUTION...AS WIND WILL BECOME WEST AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH
SOMEWHAT AS WELL.
NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO
WIND SPEED BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
STILL BANKING ON A WARMER DAY WITH INCREASED 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUN. WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE A BIT FROM
INCREASED LAPSE RATES...BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED
PARTICULARLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. CERTAINLY THE
MOST INTRIGUING ASPECT OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THE POTENTIALLY/
REPEAT POTENTIALLY/ IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IN THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...AND WHETHER IT RESULTS IN ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR
EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DAY 5-6 RANGE...WILL NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY
AT THIS TIME. IN THE NEARER PERIODS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR A POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW OF SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT LEAST FOR THE
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A
MILD TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AVERAGING UPPER 40S-
MID 50S.
STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE BE A QUIET PERIOD. 12Z
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AT THE
SURFACE...INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
STEADIER AND FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO AT LEAST 10-15 MPH IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES EAST AND A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVERHEAD PROVIDES A BIT OF MIXING. THIS
SETUP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY FAR...AND MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-UPPER 20S ALL AREAS. BOTH THE
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS HINT AT SOME FOG POTENTIAL NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS BELIEVE THE INCREASING BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ANY
FOG FROM AMOUNTING TO MUCH...EVEN IF IT WOULD TRY FORMING.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PICTURE ALOFT INVOLVES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REMAINING UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...AS A PROGRESSIVE...SLOWLY
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NORTHERN NEB/IA REGION. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...A
MILD...DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY IS ANTICIPATED...AS SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PICK UP AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE ROUGHLY 5 MPH
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN THIS GOOD MIXING REGIME AND
SKIES AVERAGING NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY...LOOKING AT A
SEASONABLY WARM DAY AND PER SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS HAVE
RAISED HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...PUTTING MOST PLACES
GENERALLY 55-59. PER THE 18Z NAM...SOME WESTERN AREAS COULD EVEN
TOP 60...BUT KEPT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA BELOW 60 FOR NOW.
BY WED EVENING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS ALOFT WILL ENTER THE
LOCAL AREA...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS EVIDENT FROM 850MB TO THE
SURFACE...A MODEST COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH. AS THIS LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS INCREASING MOISTURE...VARIOUS MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT A CORRIDOR OF RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS. WHILE
THE 18Z NAM/12Z GEM KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST
OF OUR CWA...THE LATEST ECWMF/GFS RUNS AT LEAST BRUSH OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND BELOIT KS. CONTEMPLATED ADDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS FAR SOUTHEAST AREA...BUT GIVEN THIS IS
STILL 5 FORECAST PERIODS AWAY WILL MAINTAIN OUR PREVIOUSLY DRY
FORECAST AND LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A DRY 24
HOURS...AS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT ALOFT
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WED NIGHT THAT DEPARTS EASTWARD
ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY...AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM JUST
STARTING TO ORGANIZE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT COOLER THAN WED...AND BREEZES WILL BE LIGHTER...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL PLEASANT DAY. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS...WITH LOW 50S MOST AREAS.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THINGS START TO TURN MORE INTERESTING
ALOFT...AS THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS/GEM THAT A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE NV/AZ/UT BORDER AREA BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN A DRY
DAYTIME PERIOD AS FORCING REMAINS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WHILE AT THE SURFACE SOUTH BREEZES AVERAGE AT LEAST 15-20
MPH...WITH CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS POSSIBLE NOT HIGH ENOUGH.
NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS VERY SLIGHTLY...GETTING ALL BUT FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO AT LEAST 50 DEGREES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS SUGGESTS
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD INCREASE ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH THIS BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND LIKELY NOT
A MEASURABLE PRECIP RISK...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...THE 36-HOUR TIME FRAME BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT HOLDS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL TO BE VERY INTERESTING IN
SEVERAL POSSIBLE WAYS INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW...THUNDERSTORMS
AND STRONG GRADIENT WINDS THAT COULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A WHOLE LOT TO HAMMER OUT STILL BEING 5-6
DAYS AWAY...SO FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED SOME STANDARD
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE/UNCERTAINTY HIGH WORDING INTO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE REFRAINED FROM INTRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS YET. IN SHORT...THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT MAINTAINING THIS SYSTEM AS A COMPACT...POWERFUL CLOSED
LOW THAT COULD HAVE SOME LOCAL IMPACTS...WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A
MUCH MORE ELONGATED/LESS-FOCUSED UPPER SYSTEM WITH AT MOST ONLY A
MINOR/NUISANCE WINTRY SIDE. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT RANGE
FOR NOW...AS ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING IS 60+ PERCENT
LIKELY AT ANY GIVEN SPOT. FOCUSING ON WHAT CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH IN...ANY PRECIP THAT BREAKS OUT DAYTIME SATURDAY
SHOULD STAY IN LIQUID/SHOWERY FORM. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
ECWMF/GEM SOLUTIONS AGREE ON A FAIRLY VERTICALLY STACKED...STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF KEEPS WARMER AIR ALOFT IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT INSTEAD OF CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOVED THE RAIN/SNOW
TRANSITION LINE FARTHER NORTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THEN FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...TH LATEST ECWMF SOLUTION TAKES THE
TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE HEART OF THE
CWA...WHICH WOULD IN THEORY FOCUS THE BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST 1/2...AND MAYBE KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS
GOING IN SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN DURING THE EVENING. PLENTY OF CHANGES ARE LIKELY IN THE DETAILS
OVER THE COMING DAYS...AND WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT ITS STILL TOO
EARLY TO GET OVERLY CONCERNED.
GETTING BEYOND THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER-MAKER INTO MONDAY...EVEN THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION PULLS ALL PRECIP RISK AT LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE CWA...SO WILL ADVERTISE A DRY DAY. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS
IS QUITE LOW DEPENDING ON HOW THE WEEKEND SHAKES OUT...SO SIMPLY
WENT WITH ALLBLEND MODEL SOLUTION OF MID 30S MOST NEB ZONES...AND
NEAR 40 IN KS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1040 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RATHER UNAMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. OVERALL PATTERN
CONSISTS OF BROAD RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. OUR REGION RESIDES SOUTH OF THIS EASTERN
TROUGH UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR
OVER OUR ZONES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ARE LOCATED JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TOWARD THE PANHANDLE/BIG
BEND. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE NATURE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PASCO/HERNANDO COUNTIES.
AT THE SURFACE...1020MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVER THE FL PENINSULA KEEPING THE LOCAL GRADIENT AND RESULTING FLOW
WEAK AND VARIABLE IN NATURE.
REST OF TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SOUTH WILL PROMOTE GOOD DIURNAL MIXING DESPITE THE WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...AND RESULT IN PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S SOUTH. THE WEAK GRADIENT AND
DECENT TEMPERATURE REBOUND SHOULD FORCE A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATION BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY
COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT THE
BEACHES.
TONIGHT...THE ARRIVAL OF AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW AND
RESULTING WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY LEVY COUNTY. ALL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS SHOW LIMITED QPF...AND SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS TO BE OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A
SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT WITH DRY AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE 50S.
A FEW OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR NATURE COAST...BUT NOT UNTIL LATE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 10KFT
AND 15KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH AFTERNOON BAY
AND GULF BREEZES.
&&
.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW CAUTION
OR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 58 77 62 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 79 58 81 61 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 77 55 79 59 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 75 55 76 60 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 75 48 78 53 / 10 10 10 10
SPG 74 60 75 64 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LEE-PINELLAS-POLK.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
CHARLOTTE-LEE-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
620 AM EST Tue Feb 5 2013
.NEAR TERM [through This Afternoon]...
Updated at: 520 AM EST
Rain continues to arrive in the western part of our forecast area
faster than model guidance has projected. Therefore, the PoPs and
weather grids have been updated to reflect about 2-4 hour faster
progression. The heaviest rain (per EVX/MOB radar and surface
observations) appears to be from MOB-DTS & offshore of those areas
as of 10z. Not surprisingly, this is the location that objective RUC
analysis places the strongest isentropic ascent (in the 295-305K
planes) and lowest condensation pressure deficits, as well as the
nose of the strongest low-level moisture transport. By 18z today,
these features are more centrally located in our forecast area, and
that is when the highest PoPs were focused. By mid-late afternoon,
we should see a decrease in the intensity and coverage of rain.
Overall, it looks like a good day to take the umbrella - especially
in the Florida Panhandle from Tallahassee and points west.
The latest runs of the RUC (05.07z) and our local TAE-WRF (05.06z)
keep temperatures in the mid-upper 50s across much of the western
two-thirds of our forecast area through the day. This doesn`t seem
entirely unreasonable with dense cloud cover and steady rain.
Therefore, the highs were nudged down another degree or two, but not
quite to what is portrayed on the RUC and WRF.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The large scale longwave pattern commences tonight relatively un-
amplified and progressive especially in moist Srn stream
highlighted by weak ridging Wrn states and very weak WSW to zonal
flow over Ern states. This will continue to allow several
shortwaves to traverse Ewd in WLY flow. Next shortwave is weak and
is currently moving NE off TX/LA coast will move across the SE
states/vort and exit east tonight. At the surface, low lifting
across NE states and aided by shortwave brings trailing quasi-
stnry weak surface trough to near coast or into extreme Nrn Gulf
of Mex. Weak surface wave appears to possibly develop at tail of
front slowing it down. With deep layer WSW flow will go with
50-20% SW-NE pop gradient which overlays well with MAV and local
confidence tool. Confidence tool hints at isold TSRA wrn waters
but for now will exclude to match our neighbors. Under light
winds, SREF, NAM and other guidance all show ample fog along
boundary. Temperatures will likely be held down somewhat by
extensive cloud cover, keeping highs in the upper 40s to around 50
for most areas.
These unsettled conditions will linger over the water into
Wednesday as the boundary is expected to move very little.
Without significant forcing, the stalled front may provide just
enough lift for 10-20% N-S showers over land, 30% over water. The
boundary should dissipate by Wed night as a large surface high
builds Ewd across Ern states leaving a fairly strong ridge over SE
region into Wed night. Then another rain event develops. Next
shortwave a little stronger and moves NE off TX/LA coast Ewd in
near zonal flow beginning on Wed. As a result, next surface low
develops over TX and moves thru SE region with trailing front
elongating Gulf Coast Thurs thru late Thurs night. However, models
strongly disagree on timing and intensity of system. ECMWF and NAM
quicker and with higher QPF than GFS in moving low solutions are
closer than 24hrs ago. Forecast a blend of ECMWF and confidence
tool. In either case, isentropic lift induced rain commences Wed
night west half of CFWA spreading SEWD on Thurs before exiting
shortwave lifts frontal trough northward and surface moisture E/NE
of local area by early Fri with low to outer banks of NC.
Will go with 40-20% W-E pops Wed night and 60-20% NW-SE gradient on
Thurs. Gradual warming trend. Min/Max temps are Wed Night 50 to 55
degrees and on Wed and Thurs 70 to 75 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
As the extended period begins, the upper flow is forecast to be
largely zonal. However, a shortwave within this flow will be
pushing through Texas, with southwesterly flow overrunning the
stalled frontal boundary along the northern Gulf coast. Isentropic
lift is forecast to intensity along this boundary on Thursday,
allowing for a broad area of showers to push north into the
forecast area. At this time, it appears the instability will not
be sufficient for thunder, as the sfc boundary remain very close
to the coast.
By Friday, the shortwave will push off to the east. However, the
sfc front is expected to remain stationary or push just south of
the region. This may allow for a few showers even during the day
on Thursday.
By Saturday, high pressure will nose down the eastern seaboard
and push the boundary farther south of the area. This should keep
the region dry through the weekend. With the zonal flow aloft and
no source of cold air, temperatures are expected to remain above
normal through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION [through 12z Wednesday]...
Updated at: 620 AM EST
The outlook for the terminals and surrounding area through much of
the daytime hours is still VFR with periodic -RA. Winds will be
light out of a generally southerly direction. In the evening, CIGS
should trend down into the MVFR range, with the possibility of some
fog and IFR CIGS or visibility developing overnight. Model guidance
differs on the timing of these trends, but there is overall
agreement on the deteriorating flight categories overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak surface trough will settle along the northern Gulf Coast
thru early Wed. This will keep winds and seas mostly low and
onshore. By Thursday, a stronger storm system will approach from
the west and increase winds to near cautionary levels. Light to
moderate offshore flow will return on Friday before becoming
easterly into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased moisture and rain chances are expected for much of the
rest of the work week. Therefore, red flag conditions are not
expected over any of the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Despite increased rain chances this week, rainfall totals are
expected to remain low, with minimal impact on area rivers and
streams.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 63 53 71 55 73 / 70 40 20 30 50
Panama City 64 56 69 57 69 / 90 50 20 40 60
Dothan 63 49 73 55 70 / 50 40 10 30 60
Albany 64 48 73 53 70 / 30 30 10 20 60
Valdosta 69 52 71 55 74 / 30 30 20 20 40
Cross City 71 51 74 53 76 / 20 30 30 20 20
Apalachicola 65 56 68 57 68 / 80 40 20 40 50
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Camp
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
522 AM EST Tue Feb 5 2013
.NEAR TERM [through This Afternoon]...
Updated at: 520 AM EST
Rain continues to arrive in the western part of our forecast area
faster than model guidance has projected. Therefore, the PoPs and
weather grids have been updated to reflect about 2-4 hour faster
progression. The heaviest rain (per EVX/MOB radar and surface
observations) appears to be from MOB-DTS & offshore of those areas
as of 10z. Not surprisingly, this is the location that objective RUC
analysis places the strongest isentropic ascent (in the 295-305K
planes) and lowest condensation pressure deficits, as well as the
nose of the strongest low-level moisture transport. By 18z today,
these features are more centrally located in our forecast area, and
that is when the highest PoPs were focused. By mid-late afternoon,
we should see a decrease in the intensity and coverage of rain.
Overall, it looks like a good day to take the umbrella - especially
in the Florida Panhandle from Tallahassee and points west.
The latest runs of the RUC (05.07z) and our local TAE-WRF (05.06z)
keep temperatures in the mid-upper 50s across much of the western
two-thirds of our forecast area through the day. This doesn`t seem
entirely unreasonable with dense cloud cover and steady rain.
Therefore, the highs were nudged down another degree or two, but not
quite to what is portrayed on the RUC and WRF.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The large scale longwave pattern commences tonight relatively un-
amplified and progressive especially in moist Srn stream
highlighted by weak ridging Wrn states and very weak WSW to zonal
flow over Ern states. This will continue to allow several
shortwaves to traverse Ewd in WLY flow. Next shortwave is weak and
is currently moving NE off TX/LA coast will move across the SE
states/vort and exit east tonight. At the surface, low lifting
across NE states and aided by shortwave brings trailing quasi-
stnry weak surface trough to near coast or into extreme Nrn Gulf
of Mex. Weak surface wave appears to possibly develop at tail of
front slowing it down. With deep layer WSW flow will go with
50-20% SW-NE pop gradient which overlays well with MAV and local
confidence tool. Confidence tool hints at isold TSRA wrn waters
but for now will exclude to match our neighbors. Under light
winds, SREF, NAM and other guidance all show ample fog along
boundary. Temperatures will likely be held down somewhat by
extensive cloud cover, keeping highs in the upper 40s to around 50
for most areas.
These unsettled conditions will linger over the water into
Wednesday as the boundary is expected to move very little.
Without significant forcing, the stalled front may provide just
enough lift for 10-20% N-S showers over land, 30% over water. The
boundary should dissipate by Wed night as a large surface high
builds Ewd across Ern states leaving a fairly strong ridge over SE
region into Wed night. Then another rain event develops. Next
shortwave a little stronger and moves NE off TX/LA coast Ewd in
near zonal flow beginning on Wed. As a result, next surface low
develops over TX and moves thru SE region with trailing front
elongating Gulf Coast Thurs thru late Thurs night. However, models
strongly disagree on timing and intensity of system. ECMWF and NAM
quicker and with higher QPF than GFS in moving low solutions are
closer than 24hrs ago. Forecast a blend of ECMWF and confidence
tool. In either case, isentropic lift induced rain commences Wed
night west half of CFWA spreading SEWD on Thurs before exiting
shortwave lifts frontal trough northward and surface moisture E/NE
of local area by early Fri with low to outer banks of NC.
Will go with 40-20% W-E pops Wed night and 60-20% NW-SE gradient on
Thurs. Gradual warming trend. Min/Max temps are Wed Night 50 to 55
degrees and on Wed and Thurs 70 to 75 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
As the extended period begins, the upper flow is forecast to be
largely zonal. However, a shortwave within this flow will be
pushing through Texas, with southwesterly flow overrunning the
stalled frontal boundary along the northern Gulf coast. Isentropic
lift is forecast to intensity along this boundary on Thursday,
allowing for a broad area of showers to push north into the
forecast area. At this time, it appears the instability will not
be sufficient for thunder, as the sfc boundary remain very close
to the coast.
By Friday, the shortwave will push off to the east. However, the
sfc front is expected to remain stationary or push just south of
the region. This may allow for a few showers even during the day
on Thursday.
By Saturday, high pressure will nose down the eastern seaboard
and push the boundary farther south of the area. This should keep
the region dry through the weekend. With the zonal flow aloft and
no source of cold air, temperatures are expected to remain above
normal through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION [through 06z Wednesday]...
In the early morning hours, a mid-level cloud deck was spreading
over much of the region, with CIGS generally between 5000 and 15000
feet AGL. The outlook is for VFR conditions to generally prevail for
much of the daytime hours as rain begins to develop east towards our
area. The exception will be at ECP where marginal MVFR CIGS appear
possible through the day. In heavier rain showers, it`s possible
that brief reductions in visibility into the MVFR range could occur.
There will be a better chance of low stratus or fog after sunset.
For now, we have indicated an MVFR forecast at all terminals, but
IFR is not out of the question.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak surface trough will settle along the northern Gulf Coast
thru early Wed. This will keep winds and seas mostly low and
onshore. By Thursday, a stronger storm system will approach from
the west and increase winds to near cautionary levels. Light to
moderate offshore flow will return on Friday before becoming
easterly into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased moisture and rain chances are expected for much of the
rest of the work week. Therefore, red flag conditions are not
expected over any of the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Despite increased rain chances this week, rainfall totals are
expected to remain low, with minimal impact on area rivers and
streams.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 63 53 71 55 73 / 70 40 20 30 50
Panama City 64 56 69 57 69 / 90 50 20 40 60
Dothan 63 49 73 55 70 / 50 40 10 30 60
Albany 64 48 73 53 70 / 30 30 10 20 60
Valdosta 69 52 71 55 74 / 30 30 20 20 40
Cross City 71 51 74 53 76 / 20 30 30 20 20
Apalachicola 65 56 68 57 68 / 80 40 20 40 50
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Camp
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
555 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING
AT SPS/LAW/OUN AND PERHAPS OKC. WESTERN EDGE OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTEND FROM SPS TO DUNCAN NEAR CHICKASHA
AND MAY DEVELOP OVER OUN/LAW BY 13Z. ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16-17Z. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL MENTION MVFR
CEILINGS AT TERMINAL SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WILL BE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT
TODAY/THIS MORNING. HRRR RUNS HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOPING TO A WICHITA FALLS...NORMAN AND TULSA
LINE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY ERODE CLOUDS
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
FAR NORTH AND WEST BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
DID ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAINLY FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
BETTER CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. DID ADJUST TEMPS AND DEWPOINT UP MOST AREAS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FEATURE OVER BAJA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EC MODEL AND NAM12 BOTH DEVELOP SOME PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST
AND WEAKENS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A FRONT AND UPPER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AIR
MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MOIST FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. STILL APPEARS BETTER CHANCES FOR DECENT
RAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH/LOW
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW CLOSER
TO THE EC MODEL WHICH BRINGS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS SATURDAY
INTO FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 43 66 54 / 0 0 0 40
HOBART OK 67 42 68 50 / 0 0 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 50 71 54 / 0 0 0 30
GAGE OK 63 34 69 40 / 0 0 0 30
PONCA CITY OK 64 38 66 48 / 0 0 0 50
DURANT OK 68 50 68 53 / 10 0 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ032-
039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
414 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WILL BE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT
TODAY/THIS MORNING. HRRR RUNS HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOPING TO A WICHITA FALLS...NORMAN AND TULSA
LINE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY ERODE CLOUDS
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
FAR NORTH AND WEST BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
DID ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAINLY FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
BETTER CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. DID ADJUST TEMPS AND DEWPOINT UP MOST AREAS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FEATURE OVER BAJA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EC MODEL AND NAM12 BOTH DEVELOP SOME PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST
AND WEAKENS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A FRONT AND UPPER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AIR
MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MOIST FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. STILL APPEARS BETTER CHANCES FOR DECENT
RAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH/LOW
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW CLOSER
TO THE EC MODEL WHICH BRINGS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS SATURDAY
INTO FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 43 66 54 / 0 0 0 40
HOBART OK 67 42 68 50 / 0 0 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 50 71 54 / 0 0 0 30
GAGE OK 63 34 69 40 / 0 0 0 30
PONCA CITY OK 64 38 66 48 / 0 0 0 50
DURANT OK 68 50 68 53 / 10 0 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ032-
039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ090.
&&
$$
17/6
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
825 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013
.UPDATE...
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING CLOUDS LINGERING METROPLEX NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS IN THOSE AREAS AND ADJUSTED
CLOUD GRIDS. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE WHEN VISIBILITIES IMPROVE.
84
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS
ENCOMPASSES ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 15Z OR 16Z BEFORE IMPROVING. WENT WITH A FASTER
IMPROVEMENT FOR WACO THAN WHAT MOS IS SHOWING AS WACO CONTINUES TO
BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE IMPACTS. LOCAL MEDIA REPORTS FROM
WACO INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKER
THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SHOWS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE METROPLEX...FOG WILL BURN OFF AROUND 16Z AND IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN...RISING INTO LOW-MVFR CATEGORIES SHORTLY AFTER NOON.
LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ALL DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL SIDE WITH THIS SOLUTION...BUT NOT BE AS PESSIMISTIC
AS THE TTU-WRF WHICH KEEPS IFR IN PLACE. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KTS SHOULD KEEP
IT UNDER CONTROL.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
TEMPLE SURFACE OBSERVATION NOW INDICATING WESTERN REACHES OF THE
DENSE FOG ARE REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH FURTHER WEST ALONG HWY 190 AROUND KILLEEN...
FORT HOOD...AND COPPERAS COVE...EXPECT THE WORST FOG CONDITIONS
TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS YOU HEAD WEST OF THE INTERSTATE.
THE HRRR 2M MOISTURE AND VISIBILITY FORECASTS INDICATES THIS AS
WELL AND HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE WITH THE FOG THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...WE HAVE ADDED BELL COUNTY TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
MORNING.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013/
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM CST. THE LINE
IS GENERALLY EAST OF A BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...MERIDIAN...CAMERON LINE.
THIS INCLUDES THE DFW...WACO...AND SHERMAN AREAS BUT NOT TEMPLE OR
KILLEEN...AS RAP40 DATA KEEPS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF THE STEPHENVILLE/HAMILTON AREA NEARLY STATIONARY...OR ONLY
DRIFTING SOUTH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP MOST FOG AT
BAY...OR PATCHY AND LIGHT AT BEST. WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 MPH
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DISSIPATE THE FOG WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT WITH PRESSURE
FALLS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SOUTH
WINDS FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...DEW PTS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN WELL UP INTO THE 50S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY
5-10 MPH OR CALM IN PROTECTED AREAS. EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH GROUND TEMPS HAVE WARMED RECENTLY.
STILL...SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING.
FOR MID WEEK/WED-THURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING. ONE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH ANOTHER LESS DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTO OUR CENTRAL TEXAS AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE OTHER ON ITS HEELS ARRIVING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...ONGOING WAA AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...THOUGH ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE SECOND DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD END
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT MAY LEND TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SETS UP ALOFT. PRESSURE FALLS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY
WILL LIFT THIS FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MEDIUM MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF
ENERGY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST STATES WITHIN A BROADER
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN
WARM...BREEZY AND WELL CAPPED ALOFT UNDERNEATH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DO NOT SEE MUCH
MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. MODELS REALLY DIVERGE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING OUT LEAD ENERGY AND LESS AMPLIFICATION OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. WILL LEAN WITH NCEP WITH
A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOTION. STRONG WAA SHOULD LEAD TO A VIGOROUS
LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND THE CAPPING INVERSION NOT QUITE
AS STOUT AS IT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. BY SUNDAY...A SURFACE
LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND KS PULLING A
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND ANY
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST...BEFORE BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 53 72 55 74 / 0 0 10 20 20
WACO, TX 74 52 71 55 77 / 0 10 20 30 10
PARIS, TX 68 49 70 51 67 / 0 5 20 30 40
DENTON, TX 68 50 70 54 70 / 0 0 10 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 68 48 70 53 70 / 0 5 10 20 30
DALLAS, TX 68 54 72 56 73 / 0 5 10 20 20
TERRELL, TX 69 51 70 54 72 / 0 5 20 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 73 53 72 54 74 / 0 10 30 30 20
TEMPLE, TX 75 52 72 56 77 / 0 10 30 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 49 72 52 76 / 0 0 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
533 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS
ENCOMPASSES ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 15Z OR 16Z BEFORE IMPROVING. WENT WITH A FASTER
IMPROVEMENT FOR WACO THAN WHAT MOS IS SHOWING AS WACO CONTINUES TO
BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE IMPACTS. LOCAL MEDIA REPORTS FROM
WACO INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS SHALLOW WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKER
THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SHOWS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE METROPLEX...FOG WILL BURN OFF AROUND 16Z AND IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN...RISING INTO LOW-MVFR CATEGORIES SHORTLY AFTER NOON.
LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ALL DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL SIDE WITH THIS SOLUTION...BUT NOT BE AS PESSIMISTIC
AS THE TTU-WRF WHICH KEEPS IFR IN PLACE. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KTS SHOULD KEEP
IT UNDER CONTROL.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.UPDATE...
TEMPLE SURFACE OBSERVATION NOW INDICATING WESTERN REACHES OF THE
DENSE FOG ARE REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH FURTHER WEST ALONG HWY 190 AROUND KILLEEN...
FORT HOOD...AND COPPERAS COVE...EXPECT THE WORST FOG CONDITIONS
TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS YOU HEAD WEST OF THE INTERSTATE.
THE HRRR 2M MOISTURE AND VISIBILITY FORECASTS INDICATES THIS AS
WELL AND HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE WITH THE FOG THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...WE HAVE ADDED BELL COUNTY TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
MORNING.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013/
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM CST. THE LINE
IS GENERALLY EAST OF A BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...MERIDIAN...CAMERON LINE.
THIS INCLUDES THE DFW...WACO...AND SHERMAN AREAS BUT NOT TEMPLE OR
KILLEEN...AS RAP40 DATA KEEPS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF THE STEPHENVILLE/HAMILTON AREA NEARLY STATIONARY...OR ONLY
DRIFTING SOUTH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP MOST FOG AT
BAY...OR PATCHY AND LIGHT AT BEST. WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 MPH
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DISSIPATE THE FOG WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT WITH PRESSURE
FALLS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SOUTH
WINDS FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...DEW PTS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN WELL UP INTO THE 50S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY
5-10 MPH OR CALM IN PROTECTED AREAS. EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH GROUND TEMPS HAVE WARMED RECENTLY.
STILL...SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING.
FOR MID WEEK/WED-THURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING. ONE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH ANOTHER LESS DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTO OUR CENTRAL TEXAS AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE OTHER ON ITS HEELS ARRIVING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...ONGOING WAA AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...THOUGH ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE SECOND DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD END
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT MAY LEND TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SETS UP ALOFT. PRESSURE FALLS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY
WILL LIFT THIS FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MEDIUM MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF
ENERGY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST STATES WITHIN A BROADER
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN
WARM...BREEZY AND WELL CAPPED ALOFT UNDERNEATH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DO NOT SEE MUCH
MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. MODELS REALLY DIVERGE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING OUT LEAD ENERGY AND LESS AMPLIFICATION OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. WILL LEAN WITH NCEP WITH
A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOTION. STRONG WAA SHOULD LEAD TO A VIGOROUS
LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND THE CAPPING INVERSION NOT QUITE
AS STOUT AS IT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. BY SUNDAY...A SURFACE
LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND KS PULLING A
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND ANY
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST...BEFORE BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 53 72 55 74 / 0 0 10 20 20
WACO, TX 74 52 71 55 77 / 0 10 20 30 10
PARIS, TX 67 49 70 51 67 / 0 5 20 30 40
DENTON, TX 70 50 70 54 70 / 0 0 10 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 68 48 70 53 70 / 0 5 10 20 30
DALLAS, TX 71 54 72 56 73 / 0 5 10 20 20
TERRELL, TX 70 51 70 54 72 / 0 5 20 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 72 53 72 54 74 / 0 10 30 30 20
TEMPLE, TX 75 52 72 56 77 / 0 10 30 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 49 72 52 76 / 0 0 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
85/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
459 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013
.UPDATE...
TEMPLE SURFACE OBSERVATION NOW INDICATING WESTERN REACHES OF THE
DENSE FOG ARE REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH FURTHER WEST ALONG HWY 190 AROUND KILLEEN...
FORT HOOD...AND COPPERAS COVE...EXPECT THE WORST FOG CONDITIONS
TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS YOU HEAD WEST OF THE INTERSTATE.
THE HRRR 2M MOISTURE AND VISIBILITY FORECASTS INDICATES THIS AS
WELL AND HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE WITH THE FOG THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...WE HAVE ADDED BELL COUNTY TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
MORNING.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013/
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM CST. THE LINE
IS GENERALLY EAST OF A BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...MERIDIAN...CAMERON LINE.
THIS INCLUDES THE DFW...WACO...AND SHERMAN AREAS BUT NOT TEMPLE OR
KILLEEN...AS RAP40 DATA KEEPS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF THE STEPHENVILLE/HAMILTON AREA NEARLY STATIONARY...OR ONLY
DRIFTING SOUTH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP MOST FOG AT
BAY...OR PATCHY AND LIGHT AT BEST. WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 MPH
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DISSIPATE THE FOG WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT WITH PRESSURE
FALLS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SOUTH
WINDS FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...DEW PTS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN WELL UP INTO THE 50S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY
5-10 MPH OR CALM IN PROTECTED AREAS. EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH GROUND TEMPS HAVE WARMED RECENTLY.
STILL...SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING.
FOR MID WEEK/WED-THURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING. ONE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH ANOTHER LESS DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTO OUR CENTRAL TEXAS AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE OTHER ON ITS HEELS ARRIVING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...ONGOING WAA AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...THOUGH ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE SECOND DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD END
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT MAY LEND TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SETS UP ALOFT. PRESSURE FALLS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY
WILL LIFT THIS FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES.
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MEDIUM MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF
ENERGY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST STATES WITHIN A BROADER
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN
WARM...BREEZY AND WELL CAPPED ALOFT UNDERNEATH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DO NOT SEE MUCH
MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. MODELS REALLY DIVERGE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING OUT LEAD ENERGY AND LESS AMPLIFICATION OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. WILL LEAN WITH NCEP WITH
A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOTION. STRONG WAA SHOULD LEAD TO A VIGOROUS
LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND THE CAPPING INVERSION NOT QUITE
AS STOUT AS IT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. BY SUNDAY...A SURFACE
LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND KS PULLING A
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND ANY
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST...BEFORE BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 53 72 55 74 / 0 0 10 20 20
WACO, TX 74 52 71 55 77 / 0 10 20 30 10
PARIS, TX 67 49 70 51 67 / 0 5 20 30 40
DENTON, TX 70 50 70 54 70 / 0 0 10 20 20
MCKINNEY, TX 68 48 70 53 70 / 0 5 10 20 30
DALLAS, TX 71 54 72 56 73 / 0 5 10 20 20
TERRELL, TX 70 51 70 54 72 / 0 5 20 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 72 53 72 54 74 / 0 10 30 30 20
TEMPLE, TX 75 52 72 56 77 / 0 10 30 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 49 72 52 76 / 0 0 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
85/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MST TUE FEB 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS REGION AT THIS
TIME...GRADUALLY BECOMING A BIT MORE WESTERLY ACCORDING TO THE
PLATTEVILLE PROFILER. WINDS ALOFT NOT ALL THAT STRONG...WITH CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW AROUND 20 KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP. A FEW GUSTS TOPPING
30-35 MPH ACROSS THE RIDGES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. ACROSS PLAINS
WEAK MESOCYCLONE IN THE DENVER AREA KEEPING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A BIT
OF A WAVE CLOUD ALONG FOOTHILLS. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME WESTERLY
TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH LATEST RAP SHOWING CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING TO 30 KTS. SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG FOOTHILLS. MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH LATEST WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING WAVE CLOUD TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG FOOTHILLS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD SHOULD KEEP
MINS FAIRLY MILD IN AND NEAR FOOTHILLS. ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE MORNING
AND OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN WYOMING BY THE EVENING.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF
THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY. QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY PROGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL QG ASCENT. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH LAPSE RATES
AND OROGRAPHICS GRADUALLY IMPROVING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
THE AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO
WEST FACING SLOPES. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS STILL HINTING AT WEAK
SURGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE DEEPEST AND
STRONGEST WITH THIS SURGE...ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE MORE MOISTURE.
LATEST CANADIAN ALSO INDICATING SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
LOW LEVELS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. BETTER CHANCE FOR VIRGA WITH THE
DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RAIN AND OR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SEEM A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM.
.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FLOW BEHIND THE
UPPER TROUGH IS ZONAL AND PRETTY WEAK. THIS CONTINUES THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM OVER THE CWA. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS HAVE WEAK DOWNWARD ENERGY PROGGED FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT...UPWARD MOTION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO COLORADO. IT IS PRETTY WEAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY
EVENING...THEN INCREASES A BIT AND CONTINUES WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE UPSLOPE
FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...NORMAL DUIRNAL WIND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY. ON FRIDAY...INTO THE EVENING...SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS DOMINATE. SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY
OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE BEHIND IT
IS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. FOR MOISTURE...THE GFS HAS A DECENT
AMOUNT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS
WAY DRIER...AND THE ECMWF HAS SOME BUT ONLY IN THE MID AN UPPER
LEVELS. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING IT IS
PRETTY DRY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE QPF
FIELDS NOW SHOW MORE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA THEN
THEY INDICATED ON YESTERDAY`S 12Z RUNS. IN THE FACT...THE GFS
SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...INCLUDING THE PALMER RIDGE UP INTO THE
WESTERN URBAN CORRIDOR. THE ECMWF SHOWS LESS...WITH NOTHING ON
NAM. THERE IS ALSO A TAD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL GO WITH
20-50% IN APPROPRIATE AREAS. CONSIDERING LAST WEEK`S STORM WILL
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE NAM. IT`S PERFORMANCE WAS MISERABLE. NO
POPS THE THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL BRING
MINOR POPS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT STORM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-2 C COLDER THAN
WEDNESDAY`S. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DECENT UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW TO AFFECT THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A CLOSED
CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS IT
OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE GFS KEEPS
AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. BY 00Z SUNDAY
AFTERNOON LATE...THE GFS HAS IT OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...THE
ECMWF HAS IT OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. THEY BOTH STILL
KEEP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO ALL THAT TIME CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF CONCERNING
THE CIRCULATION CENTER(S)...BUT IT ALSO KEEPS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. CERTAIN PARAMETERS BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN SYNC BUT THERE IS A DECENT PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THERE IS DEEP MOISTURE...
THERE IS FAILRY COLD AIR AND THERE IS SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY.
CONFIDENCE OF SNOWFALL IS INCREASING.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE DENVER AREA BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS WEAK MESOCYCLONE OVER
NORTH DENVER WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
STILL SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AT THE AREA AIRPORTS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. WINDS TO
THEN BECOME MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AS DRAINAGE
FLOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 8 KTS OR
LESS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH WAVE CLOUD ALONG INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THE MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 12000 FEET. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 KTS BY 15Z...SHIFING TO
THE NORTHWEST BY 19Z. WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 21Z AS
WEAK SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH 9000 FEET AGL CEILING BY 21Z. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CEILINGS AROUND 6000 FEET AGL DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SCATTERED CEILING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
510 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 505 PM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND NW CT. IT APPEARS TO BE A
SEEDER-FEEDER AS THE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE SEEDING THE LOWER
CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE. SO WE WILL RAISE THOSE SOUTHERN THREE
COUNTIES TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARD OHIO. LATEST
HRRR REFLECTIVITY CONTINUES TO FAVOR MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
EVOLVING TONIGHT SO WE WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS IN PLACE AT THIS
TIME.
PREV DISC...
PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WAS
CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK FORCING. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
FOCUSED AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE CWFA. EXPERIENTIAL FORECAST
REFLECTIVITIES LEAD BY THE HRRR ALL SUGGEST A SCATTERED NATURE TO
THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT. ALONG WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE...WE WILL DROP
BACK POPS TO THE HIGH CHC-SCT CATEGORY WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER THAN
THIS MORNINGS VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS IN THE MORNING BEFORE THOSE
INVERSION HEIGHTS COLLAPSE TOWARD NOON. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS WE MIX UP TO 30KT
MAGNITUDES. FURTHERMORE...THOSE WINDS MAY GET FUNNELED DOWN THE
MOHAWK RIVER FOR A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THOSE WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR...INITIALLY...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL
SEND TEMPS QUICKLY DOWNWARD WITH NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A FROZEN AND PARTIAL SNOW
COVERED GROUND/. THEN WE WILL WATCH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS
STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY COMES ASHORE AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE NATION. NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TO
COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 285-290K SURFACE SUPPORTS BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SLOWLY LOWERING CPD/S TO RESULT WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
DECLINES IN THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND MAY EVEN SEE A SLOW
REBOUND TOWARD SUNRISE.
THURSDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUE DECREASE IN THOSE CPD/S. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN THE THICKENING AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK AND THE
CHANCE FOR OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODEL QPF
SIGNALS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS ACROSS OUR REGION /THEY DO SO FURTHER
UPSTREAM/...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LESS
THAN 30MB CPD/S...WE WILL PLACE CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWFA BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AND VALUES
UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LOW LEVEL
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW DOES INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND THIS TOO SHOULD
LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 20S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO A POTENTIAL STORM
IMPACTING THE REGION. GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS AND THE PERSISTENT ECMWF
FOR THE PAST 5 RUNS WANT TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC
ENERGY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/S/ ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
INCREASE RATHER RAPIDLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND
TRAJECTORY AND MAGNITUDES...WE WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
LIKELY POPS AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS FOR
NOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AS WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE. MOST MODELS NOW ON BOARD WITH A MAJOR WINTER EVENT
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR VIRGINIA BEACH
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW ALREADY OVERSPREADING OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY SATURDAY MORNING...INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A
SNOW MIX IS A POSSIBILITY BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE
LOWER SECTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT FOR NOW WILL SAY IT IS
ALL SNOW. OTHERWISE...AN ALL-SNOW EVENT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
CONFIDENCE...WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN SWIFTLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. A FLOW TURNING NORTHERLY ENHANCED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN BY SUNDAY ENSURES THAT WE HAVE AN ALL-SNOW EVENT BEYOND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTH...SUCH THAT 6 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MOST REASONABLE...WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS...OF COURSE...TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORE IS POSSIBLE...BUT SO
IS LESS...DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BROAD-AREA SNOW-PRODUCER.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE PARTLY CLOUDY
SIDE...WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO MAKE THE NIGHT A COLD ONE.
BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM THREATENS THE
REGION WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH TUESDAY BEGINNING A
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY. ON
SATURDAY...ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL FAIL TO CRACK THE FREEZING MARK.
ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS WILL MAKE IT TO AT LEAST
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND
UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BACK OFF TUESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID
40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID TEENS IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.
A FURTHER MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS A
WEAK CLIPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TERMINALS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO VSBY
WITHIN THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END WEDNESDAY
MORNING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...THEN
BECOMING WESTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU NGT-FRI NIGHT. MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS OUR COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF SNOW.
SOME RIVER AND STREAM GAGES ARE EXPERIENCING ICE EFFECTS. ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND THICKEN ON ALL BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
418 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WAS
CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK FORCING. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
FOCUSED AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE CWFA. EXPERIENTIAL FORECAST
REFLECTIVITIES LEAD BY THE HRRR ALL SUGGEST A SCATTERED NATURE TO
THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT. ALONG WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE...WE WILL DROP
BACK POPS TO THE HIGH CHC-SCT CATEGORY WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN 1 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER THAN
THIS MORNINGS VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS IN THE MORNING BEFORE THOSE
INVERSION HEIGHTS COLLAPSE TOWARD NOON. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS WE MIX UP TO 30KT
MAGNITUDES. FURTHERMORE...THOSE WINDS MAY GET FUNNELED DOWN THE
MOHAWK RIVER FOR A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THOSE WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR...INITIALLY...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL
SEND TEMPS QUICKLY DOWNWARD WITH NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A FROZEN AND PARTIAL SNOW
COVERED GROUND/. THEN WE WILL WATCH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS
STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY COMES ASHORE AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE NATION. NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TO
COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 285-290K SURFACE SUPPORTS BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SLOWLY LOWERING CPD/S TO RESULT WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
DECLINES IN THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND MAY EVEN SEE A SLOW
REBOUND TOWARD SUNRISE.
THURSDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUE DECREASE IN THOSE CPD/S. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN THE THICKENING AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK AND THE
CHANCE FOR OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODEL QPF
SIGNALS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS ACROSS OUR REGION /THEY DO SO FURTHER
UPSTREAM/...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LESS
THAN 30MB CPD/S...WE WILL PLACE CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWFA BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I90
WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AND VALUES
UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LOW LEVEL
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW DOES INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND THIS TOO SHOULD
LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 20S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO A POTENTIAL STORM
IMPACTING THE REGION. GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS AND THE PERSISTENT ECMWF
FOR THE PAST 5 RUNS WANT TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC
ENERGY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/S/ ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
INCREASE RATHER RAPIDLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND
TRAJECTORY AND MAGNITUDES...WE WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
LIKELY POPS AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS FOR
NOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AS WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE. MOST MODELS NOW ON BOARD WITH A MAJOR WINTER EVENT
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR VIRGINIA BEACH
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW ALREADY OVERSPREADING OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY SATURDAY MORNING...INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A
SNOW MIX IS A POSSIBILITY BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN THE
LOWER SECTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT FOR NOW WILL SAY IT IS
ALL SNOW. OTHERWISE...AN ALL-SNOW EVENT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
CONFIDENCE...WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN SWIFTLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. A FLOW TURNING NORTHERLY ENHANCED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN BY SUNDAY ENSURES THAT WE HAVE AN ALL-SNOW EVENT BEYOND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTH...SUCH THAT 6 TO 10 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MOST REASONABLE...WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS...OF COURSE...TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MORE IS POSSIBLE...BUT SO
IS LESS...DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BROAD-AREA SNOW-PRODUCER.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE PARTLY CLOUDY
SIDE...WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO MAKE THE NIGHT A COLD ONE.
BUT THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM THREATENS THE
REGION WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH TUESDAY BEGINNING A
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY. ON
SATURDAY...ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL FAIL TO CRACK THE FREEZING MARK.
ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS WILL MAKE IT TO AT LEAST
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND
UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BACK OFF TUESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID
40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID TEENS IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.
A FURTHER MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS A
WEAK CLIPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TERMINALS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO VSBY
WITHIN THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END WEDNESDAY
MORNING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...THEN
BECOMING WESTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU NGT-FRI NIGHT. MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS OUR COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF SNOW.
SOME RIVER AND STREAM GAGES ARE EXPERIENCING ICE EFFECTS. ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND THICKEN ON ALL BODIES OF WATER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RATHER UNAMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. OVERALL PATTERN CONSISTS OF BROAD
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST/INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST. OUR REGION RESIDES SOUTH OF THIS EASTERN TROUGH UNDER A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER OUR ZONES THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE LOCATED JUST OFF
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TOWARD THE PANHANDLE/BIG BEND. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NATURE COAST THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PASCO/HERNANDO COUNTIES.
AT THE SURFACE...1020MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVER THE FL PENINSULA KEEPING THE LOCAL GRADIENT AND RESULTING FLOW
WEAK AND VARIABLE IN NATURE.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SOUTH WILL PROMOTE GOOD DIURNAL MIXING DESPITE THE WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND RESULT IN PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. THE
WEAK GRADIENT AND DECENT TEMPERATURE REBOUND HAS ALREADY FORCED A
FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY
COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT THE
BEACHES.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TONIGHT...THE ARRIVAL OF AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW AND
RESULTING WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES.
ALL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOW LIMITED QPF...AND SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
OF THESE SHOWERS TO BE OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT WITH DRY AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
REBOUND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN
THE 50S. A FEW OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR NATURE COAST...BUT NOT UNTIL LATE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK IMPULSE WILL QUICKLY PASS TO OUR EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MAY STILL SEE A FEW MORNING SHOWERS UP OVER THE NATURE COAST...BUT
THESE SHOULD GENERALLY END BY MIDDAY WITH THE LOSS OF ANY SYNOPTIC
FORCING. IN FACT...HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO FORCE MINOR
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA WHICH
SHOULD FURTHER HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. THIS
CONFIGURATION SHOULD KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP
TOWARD LEVY COUNTY...BUT ESSENTIALLY GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST
FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES KEEPING ALL AREAS ABOVE 50.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT FROM NEAR THE
MS DELTA TO SOUTHERN AL/GA DURING THE DAY. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO GA DURING THE DAY CONTINUING TO KEEP THE BEST OVERRUNNING AND
ISENTROPIC RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH OF OUR ZONES. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...BUT
REALLY SHOULD NOT PRESENT MUCH CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER OUR AREA UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY...AND EVEN THEN...MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE TRAILING FRONT LAYS OUT AND BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF/NORTHERN PENINSULA. BEST
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL STAY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT LEFT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED.
FRIDAY...ONE FINAL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HELPS TO
GIVE THE FRONT A PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND EXPECT
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO PUSH SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NE JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH IT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AND
BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN
8KFT AND 15KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH AFTERNOON
BAY AND GULF BREEZES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE AT PGD BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.
&&
.MARINE...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA PROVIDING
LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES. BAY AND INLAND WATERS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
CALM THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...BRINGING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WATERS. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE WATERS WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL
SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK. SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER TODAY...CRITICAL HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 59 78 62 78 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 57 81 60 82 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 51 78 57 80 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 54 77 61 78 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 49 78 54 80 / 10 10 10 20
SPG 59 76 63 77 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-
PINELLAS-POLK.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
CHARLOTTE-LEE-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MROCZKA
MARINE...GARCIA/MROCZKA
FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...COLSON
AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
137 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE HAS ENDED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
AREA OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH RUC MODEL HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP TRENDS.
MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO S GA ON THURSDAY. STRONGEST LIFT
AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE
ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK BUT STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT TWO NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LARGE AND STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH WILL PRODUCE A
STRONG NE FLOW AND CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY WITH VEERING WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. AFTER NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. HAVE MVFR
VISIBILITY WITH VCSH AT GNV AND VQQ AFTER 06Z. GNV IS ONLY SITE
WITH VCSH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ALL TAF SITES HAVE VCSH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS ARE NOTED OVER THE WATERS WITH SW/W WINDS OFFSHORE AND
SEABREEZE HAS PRODUCED ENE WINDS AT SAUF1. ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
WED/THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NNE OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THU NIGHT/FRI AND CONTINUE
15-20 KT FOLLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCEC
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AND SCA CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE THU NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST
AREA WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUE OVER THE SE PORTION. THIS
AREA WILL MOISTEN BY WED WITH RH`S ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 49 74 54 69 / 30 10 20 50
SSI 53 69 54 68 / 20 20 30 60
JAX 49 75 55 75 / 20 10 20 50
SGJ 52 70 58 76 / 20 0 20 30
GNV 49 75 53 77 / 20 20 20 30
OCF 51 76 55 80 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/TRABERT/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
401 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES TO BC RESULTING IN WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH NRN IL WHILE A WEAKE SHRTWV TO THE NORTH THAT BROUGH THE
LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER MI HAD MOVED INTO NRN LOWER MI. AT THE
SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING THROUGH UPPER MI AS A TROUGH MOVES
S THROUGH THE AREA AND A LOW MOVES EAST FROM NEAR THE SAULT. A BAND
OF SNOW SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONV NEAR THE TROUGH HAS
SAGGED THROUGH THE NORTH PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NW FLOW WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS
TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER IN
THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT HIGHER SNOW/WATER RATIOS AOA 25/1.
HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AOB 4K FT WILL
ALSO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED...GREATEST OVER THE EAST. HIGHER RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT DIMINISHING WINDS LATE TONIGHT MAY ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
A MESO-LOW OVER SE LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WHER OR IF
THIS WOULD MOVE ASHORE AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEPARTING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THE FCST KEEPS TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE INLAND WEST AS
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS MID
CLOUDS PASS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF WELL
BELOW ZERO.
UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING 250-300 MB JET STREAK
FROM THE NRN LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FGEN TO
THE SOUTH INTO NW WI BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILLS SUPPORT AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING TOWARD UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEST BY 00Z/THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BROAD WAA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIAL SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL BE LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG THE BROAD H850-600
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND RIGHT REAR OF THE UPPER JET MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST/SHARPEST LOW LEVEL WAA GRADIENT DOES LOOK
TO BE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 12Z RUNS...MORE IN WISCONSIN...SO
THINKING THAT A FARTHER SOUTH TREND TO THE QPF/SNOW IS WARRANTED.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF THE MID LEVEL FGEN TRYING
TO FOCUS/STALL NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH COULD TRY TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME.
WITH THE INITIAL WAA SNOW SLIDING EAST ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND
FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH HAS SOME INFLUENCE ON THE
OVERALL FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF/GEM SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND FARTHER NORTH. WILL TREND AWAY FROM THE NAM AND TOWARDS
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THE LOW BEGINS TO WRAP UP NEAR THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND FOCUSES THE BETTER FORCING AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. BUT...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND BROAD FORCING TO LEAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...SHOULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS H850 TEMPS ARE AROUND -12C AND WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS. OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN...WINDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL ALSO ASSIST IN SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM MENOMINEE THROUGH MANISTIQUE. WITH THE RECENT
SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST...THE WIND FIELD HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING GREATLY
WHICH PRODUCES LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOCATIONS.
WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH SHIFT...THINKING MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
1-4 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
DUE TO IT/S CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BEST LOWER LEVEL WAA AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...COULD SEE MENOMINEE COUNTY APPROACHING THE 3 INCHES IN
24HRS ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO...BUT WILL FOCUS THE WORDING MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
ONE FINAL THING TO NOTE FOR THURSDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ATTEMPT TO CUT OUT SOME OF THE ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
CLOUDS. IF THIS OCCURS...IT COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW FOR OCCURRING AT THIS
POINT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO QUIET WEATHER OVER THE CWA.
NEXT WAVE BRUSHES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS AS THAT PASSES
THROUGH.
UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST GREATLY INCREASES AFTER SATURDAY...AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY EXITING THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z ECMWF AND
12Z GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND PULL A 990S MB LOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH OF THOSE RUNS
VARY GREATLY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE VARIABILITY OVER THE
LAST DAY. WITH 12Z GEM/UKMET ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS A LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WILL TREND POPS UP DURING THAT TIME
FRAME TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. IF THE CURRENT
GFS/ECMWF FORECAST IS CORRECT...SOME LOCATIONS IN UPPER MICHIGAN
COULD SEE A HEAVY SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT CMX/IWD WITH LIGHT NRLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
VSBY POSSIBLE. WED...BACKING WINDS TO SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE AT SAW THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD ALSO DROP
CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH MORE OF A NW THEN W FLOW
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS MAY EDGE UP CLOSE TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AREAS OF
FREEZING SPRAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. ENE WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE ALSO
EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
25 KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
305 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FOG TONIGHT AND SNOW
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS GOOD AGREEMENT...AND
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND FOR MOST FORECAST FIELDS.
AS OF 21 UTC...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BISECTED WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SEVERAL DAYS WAS LOCATED FROM BETWEEN
MINOT AND STANLEY...THROUGH HAZEN AND BISMARCK INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG GENERALLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND IN BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND 85 CORRIDORS
WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE ADDED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT...WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DID TRIM THE FOG BACK ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MIXING INCREASES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY PROPAGATES EAST ONCE AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT. ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...DID MAINTAIN THE FLURRY MENTION UNDERNEATH
THE STRATUS THAT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
GIVEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT NORTH AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND FOCUSES ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLEET
MIXING IN NORTHWEST WITH A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PARTIAL MELTING. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
A SIMILIAR TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND UPPER 30S SOUTH CENTRAL BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL ON THE
FRINGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR. DID PREFER BIAS CORRECTION WHICH HAS
SHOWN GOOD VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN A SIMILIAR
ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE CORRECTION BEING AN INCREASE OF 2-4
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FROM SNOWMELT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...A COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...DEVELOPS INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM S/WV DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW IS STILL DEPICTED BY ALL MODELS TO STAY SOUTH
AND EAST OF WEST/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF DOES
INDICATE A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE HEAVY PRECIP BAND NOW INTO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS IN CASE OF ANY ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFTS. HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW AREA WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE ALBERTA S/WV MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG
WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW. IF MODELS MAINTAIN THEIR RECENT TREND...POPS WILL NEED TO
BE INCREASED. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AS COLDER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH FROM CANADA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA AS BOTH SYSTEMS MERGE. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WENT WELL BELOW THE ALLBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LATER PARTS OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SUNDAY MAXT AND SUNDAY NIGHT MINT PERIODS. WINDS WERE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FROM THE ALLBLEND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 22-01Z FOR KMOT-KJMS. CIGS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT FOR KMOT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY MID-EVENING...THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE KJMS.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH INCREASING VFR
CLOUDS WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
IMPACTING KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS. IFR
VIS POSSIBLE NORTH...KMOT...WHERE MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE OUTER EDGE OF THE CLOUD
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BEGINNING
MAINLY NEAR THE CURRENT NW EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SE TOMORROW MORNING...THE MOISTURE AREA WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NW...COVERING ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY ABOUT MID-MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES ABOVE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF BOTH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ADVECTION FOG IS QUITE
POSSIBLE ACROSS W AND N OK TOMORROW AS HIGH-DEWPOINT AIR IS DRAWN
INTO AREAS THAT MAY GET A CHANCE TO COOL OFF OVERNIGHT...TO
TEMPERATURES BELOW THE DEW POINTS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING
AT SPS/LAW/OUN AND PERHAPS OKC. WESTERN EDGE OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTEND FROM SPS TO DUNCAN NEAR CHICKASHA
AND MAY DEVELOP OVER OUN/LAW BY 13Z. ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16-17Z. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL MENTION MVFR
CEILINGS AT TERMINAL SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WILL BE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT
TODAY/THIS MORNING. HRRR RUNS HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOPING TO A WICHITA FALLS...NORMAN AND TULSA
LINE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY ERODE CLOUDS
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
FAR NORTH AND WEST BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
DID ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAINLY FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
BETTER CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. DID ADJUST TEMPS AND DEWPOINT UP MOST AREAS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FEATURE OVER BAJA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EC MODEL AND NAM12 BOTH DEVELOP SOME PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST
AND WEAKENS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A FRONT AND UPPER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AIR
MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MOIST FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. STILL APPEARS BETTER CHANCES FOR DECENT
RAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH/LOW
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW CLOSER
TO THE EC MODEL WHICH BRINGS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS SATURDAY
INTO FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 43 66 54 / 0 0 0 40
HOBART OK 67 42 68 50 / 0 0 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 50 71 54 / 0 0 0 30
GAGE OK 63 34 69 40 / 0 0 0 30
PONCA CITY OK 64 38 66 48 / 0 0 0 50
DURANT OK 68 50 68 53 / 0 0 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/23/23