Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/28/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

919 AM PST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN PACIFIC. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE NEXT OF WHICH IS
A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF EUREKA AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORCAL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LACKS
MOISTURE AND QPF VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT ABOVE 5000 FEET...BUT FALL TO
AROUND 2500 FEET OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN
3 INCHES OVER MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS.

AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE OVER MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. THE FOG WILL LIFT AT MOST
SPOTS BY NOON AS ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK FRONTAL BAND MOVING THROUGH NORCAL AT THIS TIME HAVING MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE SEEING CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ECHOS INDICATED ON RADAR. FARTHER SOUTH...SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND
DELTA. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWING MOST OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FILLING IN WITH THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALTHOUGH SO FAR VISIBILITY
HAS KEPT FROM GOING DENSE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NEED OF
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING. UPPER EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS
WILL MAKE FOR A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH
WEAK DYNAMICS GENERATED BY THE TROUGH...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT
THREAT OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. COLDER AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING LOWER SNOW LEVELS
AND A COOLING TREND BUT MILD AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL STILL
KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL PUSH INTO NORCAL TONIGHT BRINGING AN BETTER THREAT OF PRECIP TO
THE ENTIRE CWA. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL DROPPING TO BELOW
2000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS STILL INDICATING THIS
TROUGH CONTAINS FAIRLY DRY AIR SO PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL FORECAST TO
BE ON THE MINIMAL SIDE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE PUTTING MOST OF NORCAL UNDER UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THIS FLOW
COULD CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF PRECIP ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE SIERRA CASCADES. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS SHOULD PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY MONDAY...MID RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLIDING UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD OVER
THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND FROM
THE WEST ALTHOUGH SOME RAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA. UPPER RIDGING AND CLEARING SKIES WILL
BRING A LIKELY RETURN OF VALLEY FOG BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS
FOG CLEARS OUT...TUESDAY SHOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A FAIRLY CLEAR DAY
UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BE THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. RESULT WILL BE DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
VALLEY FOG. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH TO EAST WIND POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...

POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS REMAIN IN FG/BR. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE
MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA
MOSTLY ABOVE 6000FT...LOWERING TO 3000 FEET BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
LOCAL STRONG SW GUSTS OVER SIERRA RIDGES TONIGHT. EK

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CARQUINEZ STRAIT
AND DELTA...CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY...MOTHERLODE...NORTHEAST
FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY...NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

330 AM PST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BAND MOVING THROUGH NORCAL AT THIS TIME HAVING MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE SEEING CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ECHOS INDICATED ON RADAR. FARTHER SOUTH...SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND
DELTA. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWING MOST OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FILLING IN WITH THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALTHOUGH SO FAR VISIBILITY
HAS KEPT FROM GOING DENSE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NEED OF
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING. UPPER EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS
WILL MAKE FOR A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH
WEAK DYNAMICS GENERATED BY THE TROUGH...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT
THREAT OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. COLDER AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING LOWER SNOW LEVELS
AND A COOLING TREND BUT MILD AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL STILL
KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL PUSH INTO NORCAL TONIGHT BRINGING AN BETTER THREAT OF PRECIP TO
THE ENTIRE CWA. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL DROPPING TO BELOW
2000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS STILL INDICATING THIS
TROUGH CONTAINS FAIRLY DRY AIR SO PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL FORECAST TO
BE ON THE MINIMAL SIDE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE PUTTING MOST OF NORCAL UNDER UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THIS FLOW
COULD CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF PRECIP ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE SIERRA CASCADES. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS SHOULD PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY MONDAY...MID RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLIDING UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD OVER
THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND FROM
THE WEST ALTHOUGH SOME RAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA. UPPER RIDGING AND CLEARING SKIES WILL
BRING A LIKELY RETURN OF VALLEY FOG BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS
FOG CLEARS OUT...TUESDAY SHOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A FAIRLY CLEAR DAY
UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BE THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. RESULT WILL BE DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH TO EAST WIND POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WEAKENS.

.AVIATION...
WK PAC FNT AND ASSOCD UPR TROF MOV THRU OVR THE WKND. OVR NRN/CSTL
MTNS...LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS POSS IN -SHRA WITH SN LVLS AOA 065 AMSL.
FOR CNTRL VLY...WDSPRD IFR/LIFR IN FG/ST THRU ABT 19Z AND AGN TNGT
INTO SUN MRNG. OVR SIERNEV FTHLS/W SLPS...WDSPRD MVFR CIGS WITH
AREAS IFR AND LCL LIFR IN -SHRA AND VLY FOG/ST WITH SN LVLS AOA 065
AMSL.

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

548 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO WANE WITH DEPARTING KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AS SHORT WAVE CROSSES SRN MN/WI BORDER.
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDRED MUCAPES IS ALSO
EXITING INTO IL. THIS HAD ENDED OUR THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP. HOWEVER WEAK FORCING AND CERTAINLY MOISTURE
LINGERS 2KM AND BELOW AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SENSIBLE WEATHER IS DEPICTED NICELY BY THE
LOW LEVEL RAP 285-295K ISENT LAYER WHICH SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG LOCKED IN PLACE. FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD 1/4SM OR LESS VSBYS IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO
HEADLINE QUITE YET WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT ENDING LATE AND LITTLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH ONLY TOKEN ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...HAVE LEFT HEADLINES UNCHANGED
NORTH. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED THERE WITH TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 32F ALONG WITH THE DRIZZLE AND FOG. ADVISORY CANCELED
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY ACTIVE MID/LONG RANGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAJOR FOCUS ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WITH CONTINUE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUMPING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND ELONGATE INTO CENTRAL KS/SC
NEBRASKA TOWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
LOW STRATUS AND FOG LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
EVIDENT ON THE 285K TO 290K SURFACES BEGINS TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH LIFT SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LOW WITH THE FOG THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE NOW DUE TO
WINTER HEADLINES ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SIMPLICITY. GREATER PUSH OF
MOISTURE...WITH DEEPER SATURATION EXPECTED AND CONTINUE WAA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. HAVE A
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY NIGHT AS AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM
OR REMAIN STEADY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. FOG COULD CONTINUE TO BE AN
ISSUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ADDITIONALLY NAM/GFS BOTH ADVERTISE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA...WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE.
THEREFORE CONTINUED THE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF/EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH CWA TUESDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TO
ALL SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF LATER THAT DAY. POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS THAT COULD SEE A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL...AS DEPENDS ON HOW DEEP SATURATION IS
AND IF ICE CAN BE INTRODUCED INTO THE COLUMN. CURRENT NAM SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION WITH ICE INTRODUCED WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW...WHILE GFS SUGGEST DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH NO ICE
INTRODUCTION LEADING TO RAIN/FZRA/FZDZ DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.
FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THEN REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN US...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED
PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH H85
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO 20S CELSIUS. THIS WILL
SEND TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH EACH WAVE PASSAGE...SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE CENTRAL US TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING A WARMING TREND AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB
BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

.AVIATION...28/00Z
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SATURATED.
EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. THE INVERSION
AROUND 2000 FEET LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW TRAPPING THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS LITTLE FLOW FORECAST TO PUSH THIS MOISTURE OUT
A SHORT BREAK POSSIBLE FOR VIS/CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR EMMET-
HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BLACK HAWK-
BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO
GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HANCOCK-HARDIN-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

746 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

KNRN (NORTON) REPORTING 1/4SM FG AT PRESENT TIME WHILE KHLC (HILL
CITY) AT 3SM. FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING REVOLVE AROUND EXTENT OF FOG AND THREAT FOR DENSE FOG.

HAVE BEEFED UP COVERAGE OF FOG WITH WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED FROM
ROUGHLY TRENTON OR MCCOOK SOUTH THROUGH OAKLEY AND GOVE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND DECOUPLING
OCCURS. GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONS AT KNRN AT 1/4SM ALREADY HARD TO
DISCOUNT THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL WATCH FOR TRENDS
AND EVALUATE 03Z RUC/LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION.

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF THE FOG ALTHOUGH
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
TOWARD SUNRISE AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH SW FLOW
ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE IS IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL CO WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA WITH A STALLED WARM FRONT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PRIMARILY
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN NEBRASKA...AND THEN SPREAD SW INTO OUR
CWA. MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING FOG TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER LATEST 24HR RUC IS SHOWING FOG/STRATUS OVERSPREADING
THE NE HALF OF CWA. WITH HIGHER TD VALUES POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS
THE NE HALF OF THE CWA AND LOW LEVELS DECOUPLING...THE RUC SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE. ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH THE BL SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW FLOW...SO FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
MINIMAL CLOSER TO THE KS/CO STATE LINE.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST SHIFTS WEST AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST MONDAY...LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
STRONG WAA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMP FORECAST
IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING STRATUS...AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH CWA LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD ALSO START TO SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FOR NOW I KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS NW KANSAS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
STILL ON TRACK TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...HIGHEST IN COLORADO.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
VERY WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING FLURRIES OR A LIGHT DUSTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT WARM TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

AT GLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME THIN STRATUS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST SO
DO NOT BELIEVE FOG WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL. TOMORROW...BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

AT MCK...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT...BECOMING IFR TO LIFR DUE TO
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MID-MORNING TOMORROW. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS FOG
AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

442 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

149 PM MST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST SAT JAN 26 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER FOR US
TONIGHT WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN KS.

GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON PRECIP SPREADING FROM THE WEST TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST COVERAGE/CHANCES
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES. IM NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT COVERAGE
DURING THE EVENING WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BELOW H7 MARGINAL UNTIL
06Z. NAM IS ADVERTISING DRY SLOT QUICKLY MOVING FROM THE W/SW LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND WITH STRONG DRY SLOT
ALREADY APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MAY BE REASONABLE. I HAVE
TRENDED POPS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AROUND 06-12Z...AND HAVE
DECREASED POPS QUICKER ACROSS THE SW DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS IN SW
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE UP TO 0.10 INCHES OF LIQUID IS
POSSIBLE. AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS I KEPT PRECIP TYPE ALL RAIN
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING ALL LIQUID...AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHERE PRECIP/CLOUD
COVER IS LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE W/SW WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING...HOWEVER PRECIP
WILL BE OVER WITH AT THAT POINT. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WE COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WARM FROM FINAL PUSHES
NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BEFORE 18Z...WITH DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY.

WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND 10-14C H85 TEMPS ADVECTING OVER THE CWA
FROM THE WEST WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 60S IN THE SOUTH TO THE LOW 50S NEAR MCCOOK WHERE CLOUD COVER
MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST SAT JAN 26 2013

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO
SNOW. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS. WIND DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE A PROBLEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GFS SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IN THE
FLOW...OTHERWISE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND FROM THE
TUESDAY COOL DOWN...NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST SAT JAN 26 2013

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL RAIN TONIGHT AS
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER PLAINS AND CIG/VIS IMPACTS AT EITHER KGLD
AND KMCK. BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL AT EITHER TERMINAL IS AT KMCK
09-15Z PERIOD WHEN MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SATURATING LOW LEVELS. KGLD IS MORE
LIKELY TO SEE ONLY BRIEF RAINFALL...AND CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT TO PREVAIL MORE THAT VCSH IN TAFS. WITH DRIER AIR
EXPECTED AT KGLD...I AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT EITHER TERMINAL...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

638 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

LIGHT RAIN IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS UP TO NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT GIVEN WHAT IS TAKING PLACE UPSTREAM. NEARLY ALL
MESONET/AWOS/ASOS OBSERVATIONS ARE RECORDING MEASURABLE RAIN...SO IT
LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD TAIL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST UPDATE IS ALREADY OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
IN THE MONTICELLO/SOMERSET AREA SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN A
SLOW PROCESS AS RAIN TRIES TO FIGHT TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE RAIN
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...BUT STILL QUESTIONABLE IF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT FOR PLACES THAT RECEIVE RAIN VERSES THOSE WHO
DO NOT. BASED ON LATEST RUC MODEL DATA...RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY
OUT BY 06Z WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 20Z HAS PRECIP
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE AREA NEAR SOMERSET AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE OBS HAVE SHOWN NO PRECIP MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND IN THE SOUTH. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE MODELS
BRINGING IN THE PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THIS EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE RAIN OVER SPREADING THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONCERNS WITH THE TIMING
OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT LOOK TO BE AROUND 12Z WITH A 30 TO 40 KNOT
LL JET OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIXING TO THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY. MORE SHOWERY PRECIP ENTERS THE AREA
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL BRING
HIGHS FOR MONDAY INTO THE LOWER 60S...NEARLY 5 DEGREES SHORT OF
RECORD VALUES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
WELL WITH MODELS HANDLING THE SET UP QUITE WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS GOING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE BLUEGRASS ON TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT GETS
NEARER...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWING THIS DOWN A LITTLE...SO
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FRONT SLOW DOWN AS THE TIME GETS
NEARER. THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM BUFR WAS SHOWING THE BEST INSTABILITY TO
BE VERY NEAR THE FRONT ITSELF AND THIS IS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY. THERE IS VERY STRONG SHEAR WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT
NOT ZERO. IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN...THE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
GREATER. WILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. ONCE THE
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVE INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE
WILL BE A SHORT RESPITE...UNTIL A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH ABOUT
AN INCH EXPECTED. THIS WOULD BE A STUDENTS DREAM AND GIVE THEM
ANOTHER THREE DAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE UNTIL
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SO THIS
WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

LIGHT RAIN IS OVERSPREADING EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXTEND. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS KEEP THE
LOWER CIGS JUST WEST OF KSME...SO OPTING TO CONTINUE WITH THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...UPDATES WILL BE
FORTHCOMING TO THE TAFS IF CONDITIONS FALL OFF WHICH IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...ANY LOWER CIGS SHOULD RETREAT NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MUCH OF TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER SHOT FOR SOME RAIN WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

727 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE
US, RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TO THE WEST, COMPLEX WX
SYSTEM ROLLING ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ALOFT, DEEP TROUGH IS DIPPING ALONG THE WEST COAST, WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR INCREASED LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY. A PAIR OF NOTABLE UPPER SHORTWAVES EVIDENT ON WV SAT
THIS AFTN. FIRST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST, WITH
ANOTHER S/W SLIDING NE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IT IS THIS
FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED BENEATH LLVL INVERSION EARLIER
TODAY HAVE ERODED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LAST VESTIGES OF LOW CLDS
PUSHED OUT OF FAR WESTERN ZONES JUST IN TIME FOR SOME INCREASING
MID/HI CLDS AHEAD OF THE OHIO VLY SYSTEM. WL ACCOUNT FOR SLOW
INCREASE IN CLDS LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MON MORNING.

SFC HI PRESSURE WL VERY SLOWLY ERODE/MOVE OFF THE CST TNGT.
HOWEVER AS PER USUAL WITH HIGH PRES WEDGED AGAINST THE MTNS, THIS
WL OCCUR SLOWLY...AND LKLY SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER AS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FM THE SW. TEMPS LKLY TO DROP THIS EVE/ERY TNGT
INTO THE M/U20S...BEFORE HOLDING STEADY/SLOWLY RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER STOUT
WARM NOSE ALOFT...AROUND 4-5C SURGING INTO THE AREA AROUND THIS
TIME, ALLOWING FOR ARRIVING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO FALL INTO A
RELATIVELY SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW LVLS REMAIN SLOW
TO SATURATE BEFORE 09-14Z/28 OVR WESTERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FA AS WAA
ALOFT ENSUES IN EARNEST LATE TONIGHT. THUS, ANY FZRA WOULD OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT.

UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT ANY PCPN THAT FALLS PRIOR TO MID-MORNING
MONDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE FZRA, WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET/IP AT THE
START NW OF RIC. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR SOME LGT
PCPN REACHING FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK MON. QPF CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE LIGHT...BUT SFC TEMPS LIKELY TO BE AOB FREEZING AS CAD
WEDGE REMAINS STUBBORN. MONITORING UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...CONFIDENT
IN RUC DEPICTION IN TAKING BEST SWATH/SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
ALONG AND NORTH OF FVX-OFP LINE, AND HV ELEVATED TO LKLY POP ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF RIC METRO AREA. POTENTIAL ACCUM OF ICE LESS THAN A
TENTH/FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HAVE ISSUED FZRA ADVY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85/WEST OF I-95. FARTHER E/SE...CONFIDENCE
IN ACCUMULATING PCPN/ICE ACCRETION IS MUCH LOWER. EVENING CREW
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING TRENDS, AND COULD ISSUE FARTHER EAST IF
NEED BE. CAD WEDGE SLOWLY ERODES MONDAY, WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING MON MORNING. ENDED HEADLINE AT 9AM AFTER COORD WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...AS BL SHOULD WARM TO AOA FREEZING BY THIS
TIME.

PCPN BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE ENE THROUGH/AWAY FM THE FA IN THE
AFTN. SFC WARM FRONT NNE OF THE FA BY EVE...AND FA RMNS IN WRM
SECTOR FOR MON NGT/TUE W/ VRB CLDNS. POPS IN THE AFTN TO BE GENLY
AOB 14% S...AND ONLY SLGT CHC FAR N.

HI TEMPS MON FM THE L40S N TO ARND 50F SE.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR QUICKLY STREAMS INTO THE AREA AS WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTHWARD. WITH WEAK MIXING EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY WL NEED TO WATCH PROGRESS OF WEDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST,
BUT FOR NOW INCRIMENTALLY NUDGED TEMPS UPWARDS. AS IS TYPICAL IN
STRONG WAA SETUP SUCH AS THIS, SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG WL BE POSSIBLE
LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE, ONCE LLVL INVERSION
GETS BROKEN, EXPECT MARKEDLY WARMER CONDS ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH
NUDGES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WARM RETURN FLOW SETS UP. LO TEMPS MON
NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW
WILL LOCATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WHILE TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES
STILL EXIST...ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN GFS...A
WARM/WET/WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE FA. DEEP SWLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ORIGINATING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO (EVIDENT IN 700MB THETA E RIDGE). PRECIP WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5" (OVER 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR JANUARY).
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA WED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WED NIGHT. DIVERGENCE ALOFT (RRQ OF 160+ KT 300MB JET) AND
VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...SHEAR AND LITTLE...IF ANY CAPE IN
THE MIXED PHASE LAYER WILL LIKELY LIMIT CHANCE OF THUNDER WEDS
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER WHEN MODELS
HAVE A BETTER HANDLING ON THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
COULD ALSO LEAD TO PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. PRECIP WILL
END QUICKLY W TO E EARLY THURS MORNING AS DEEP...DRY WLY FLOW
KICKS IN.

STRONG WAA AND INCREASING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT (850 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR +14C) WILL RESULT IN A WARM/HUMID
DAY. WHILE DAYTIME MIXING WILL BE WEAK WITH LACK OF SUNSHINE...BL
WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SLY SFC WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH. WHILE CLOUD COVER/LACK OF STRONG MIXING WILL LIMIT TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE FA.

IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AS HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS RESULT IN COLDER TEMPS
THURSDAY (MID 40S N TO MID 50S). ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH THURS AFTERNOON...LOCATING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS.
MOISTURE MAY BE A CONCERN...BUT HAVE OPTED TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA. PTYPE WILL BE A CONCERN...WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN FA.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
SATURDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
ROLL OVER THE EDGE OF THE SERN US RIDGE AND COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE MID HOURS...10Z TO 18Z. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT WINTRY PCPN OF
SN/PL/ZR FOR MAINLY NW PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE. THIS WOULD MAINLY IMPACT RIC/SBY. CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO
DROP BELOW 2500 FT DEW TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SO THE LIGHT PCPN
WILL BE FALLING OUT OF SOME HIGHER DECKS AND VSBY WILL BE MAINLY
ABOVE 5 MI...UNLESS PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW WHICH COULD CAUSE A LOWER
VSBY. SFC TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z AS
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE TURNING ANY LINGER PCPN TO RAIN. FOR
PHF/ORF/ECG...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN THE SFC AND 5K FT WILL
INHIBIT MUCH OF THE PCPN FROM REACHING THE GROUND SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING SHOULD ANY PCPN REACH THE GROUND. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE
EXITING THE AREA BY 18Z WITH THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR
STRATUS CONDITIONS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS. THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN LIGHT N/NWLY WINDS. N/NE SWELL RESULTED IN A PERIOD OF HIGH SEAS
OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND THE ISSUANCE OF SCA HEADLINES. SEAS
HAVE REMAINED AROUND 4 FT...BUT ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SE TONIGHT AND AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS...FLOW WILL BECOME
S/SW AND SUB SCA LEVELS. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 15 KT (15-20 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS)
AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND THE WATERS. WHILE THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT (>40 KTS AT 1K FT)...ENOUGH WIND WILL REACH
THE WATER LEVEL TO WARRANT SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS INTO EARLY
THURS MORNING. SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD WED AFTERNOON...REACHING UP TO 8
TO 10 FT 20 NM OUT LATE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY THURS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST CAA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ048-049-060>071-079-080.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ESS/JEF
MARINE...SAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

555 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS SLOWED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE CWA. STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CWA...BUT EXPECT THEM TO END OR PUSH NORTH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY NICE AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS OF
3PM.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD H800-600 WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY IN MINNESOTA AND STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. SO FAR
TODAY...HAVE ONLY SEEN A FEW OBS REPORTING SNOW SHOWERS FROM THIS
MID CLOUD DECK IN NORTHERN MN...WHICH WAS LIKELY HELD OFF BY DRY
H925-850 AIR SEEN ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING AND RUC SOUNDINGS IN THAT
AREA. LATEST MODELS DO TRY TO MOISTEN THE CENTRAL CWA TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT...AS THE STRONGER H925-850 WAA SLIDES EAST ALONG THE WI
BORDER. NOT LIKING HOW QUICKLY THINGS MOISTEN...BUT WITH THE IDEA IN
SEVERAL MODELS...WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCES THERE. WILL KEEP THE BEST
POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS
WERE A LITTLE MORE MOIST AND THE MID LEVEL WAA WAS THE STRONGEST.
ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES TO AREAS SURROUNDING THE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME SNOW MAKING IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR.

THE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
THE INCREASED MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE H850 TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TOWARDS -10C
OVERNIGHT...SO DON/T EXPECT LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO GET TOO OUT OF
HAND. BUT WITH THE SNOW ALOFT FEEDING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS FORCING
THAT IS MAINLY BELOW -10C...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP THERE. H925 WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERN LUCE AND SOUTHEAST SCHOOLCRAFT...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
AND TAPERED IT OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE WEST. WITH SNOW RATIOS ON
THE LOW END...AROUND 10-14 TO 1 INITIALLY AND TRENDING
TOWARDS 8-1 SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
IN THOSE AREAS WITH ONLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE CONTINUED WARMING OF TEMPS ALOFT SHOVING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
3KFT.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE
EXITING WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AND THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST AND
TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASED CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL
00Z AND LATER. THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL COVER THIS SYSTEM IN
FURTHER DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A GAP IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE WAA
CLOUDS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING AND THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK THIS CLEARING WILL BE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE WEST HALF AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
FOR PERIOD AROUND MID DAY. FARTHER EAST...NAM/GFS ARE HINTING AT
SOME LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND REMAINING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THIS SOLUTION WITH THE DRY AIR
UPSTREAM...BUT WITH THE EXITING MID CLOUDS AND APPROACHING HIGH
CLOUDS...A PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST SEEMED WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE AS
PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT TRANSITIONS NEXT WEEK. CURRENT ERN
NAMERICA TROF IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AND IT WILL LIFT OUT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROF AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS
FORCES DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS INTO SE CANADA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR THE UPPER LAKES. AS THE WRN
TROF THEN SHIFTS E...IT APPEARS PATTERN WILL RETURN TO SOME FORM OF
THE RECENT PATTERN WITH WRN RIDGING/ERN TROFFING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND BACK TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AND A
RETURN OF PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IT DOESN`T HAPPEN
TOO OFTEN...CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS
MUCH MUCH HIGHER THAN THE EARLY PART. DURING THE EARLY PART...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN TROF
THRU THE CNTRL INTO ERN CONUS. THAT UNCERTAINTY CENTERS AROUND
WHETHER THE PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE SRN PART OF THE WRN TROF LIFTS
OUT AND PHASES WITH ENERGY DROPPING SE OUT OF CANADA. MORE ON THAT
LATER.

BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY LIFTING NE ACROSS AZ IN RESPONSE TO TROF THAT IS NOW
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE W COAST. WAVE LOOKS VERY WELL-DEFINED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. AS
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE...MODELS SHOW A NICE SHALLOW STREAM
OF MOISTURE GETTING TAPPED OFF THE GULF. SO...WITH THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE FEED...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF WAVE WILL LEAD TO AN
AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN EXPANDING
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES
TO 200-300PCT OF NORMAL. SO IF FORCING IS STRONG...MAY SEE SOME
DECENT PCPN AMOUNTS. OVERALL...MODELS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY MORE
DEFINED WITH SHORTWAVE WHICH LOOKS ON TRACK GIVEN CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
LIFTS NE THRU THE BUILDING LARGER SCALE RIDGE. MODELS ARE ALSO
TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER N AND W WITH ASSOCIATED PCPN. NAM/REGIONAL
GEM REPRESENT THE THE NW SIDE OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS WITH BOTH
SPREADING PCPN SQUARELY ACROSS UPPER MI. NAM HAS AMOUNTS FROM
0.25-0.6 INCHES WHILE THE GEM HAS 0.15-0.3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
SKEPTICAL OF THESE MORE NW SOLUTIONS...TRENDS FROM REMAINING
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORT CONTINUING TREND FROM PREVIOUS FCST TO BUMP
UP POPS FOR SUN NIGHT. PER 295K SFC...A HEALTHY PUSH OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS INDICATED TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO A DECENT AREA OF PCPN. PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE AS 850MB TEMPS
RISE TO AROUND 0C SUN. HOWEVER...WITH WETBULB PROFILE BLO 0C...SEEMS
LIKELY THAT TEMP PROFILE WILL QUICKLY FALL SUBZERO DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS WELL AS DYNAMIC COOLING. PLAN FOR NOW WILL BE
TO UTILIZE JUST SNOW AS PTYPE SUN NIGHT. 295K SFC SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS AROUND 4G/KG...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW WHERE MAX ASCENT OCCURS. SINCE DURATION OF PCPN WILL PROBABLY
BE ON THE ORDER 9HRS...HIGH END SNOW TOTALS COULD REACH 6 INCHES IF
MAX FORCING DOES SPREAD INTO UPPER MI. WILL CONTINUE TO PAINT THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE SE FCST AREA WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THIS FCST. MAY SEE 1-2 INCHES NW. ON
THE BACKSIDE OF SNOW AREA...PCPN MAY TRANSITION TO SOME -FZDZ SW TO
NE MON MORNING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE PULLS OUT. THERE SHOULD THEN BE
A TREND TO DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY MON.

OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN THE
TUE/WED TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENTLY
AMPLIFYING WRN CONUS TROF. MAIN POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY INVOLVE
WHETHER THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE WRN TROF DROPS OUT AND HANGS
BACK OVER THE SW...OR IF IT DOES NOT...WILL IT LIFT NE AND PHASE
WITH ENERGY DROPPING SE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAD
SEVERAL RUNS FAVORING THE IDEA OF DROPPING THE ENERGY OUT. IT IS NOW
TRENDING BACK TO KEEPING THE SRN PORTION PROGRESSIVE...BUT IT DOES
NOT LIFT ENERGY NE TO PHASE WITH THE NRN PORTION IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE GFS HAS HAD THE MOST RUNS FAVORING PHASING OF ENERGY IN
THE VCNTY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE GLOBAL GEM/UKMET ALSO
GENERALLY LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION ON MOST RUNS. AGAIN...AS IN
PREVIOUS DAYS...THERE ARE A FEW GFS ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE A DEEP STORM
MOVING NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES REGION. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE ALWAYS
UNCERTAIN PHASING OF STREAMS AND LOCATIONS OF SUCH OCCURRENCE...
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REALLY TREND INHERITED FCST MUCH
IN ANY DIRECTION. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS...BEST
PATH WILL CONTINUE TO BE TO USE A CONSENSUS OF RECENT MODEL RUNS
UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE SORTED OUT. GIVEN THE WARMTH PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MIXED PCPN COULD BE AN ISSUE...AND FOR
THIS FCST ISSUANCE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A MIX...RANGING FROM
MOSTLY RAIN FOR A TIME SE TO MAINLY SNOW NW. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF
SFC LOW AND WHETHER IT DEEPENS SUBSTANTIALLY...THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW/BLSN LATER TUE INTO WED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LES WILL GET UNDERWAY. LAKE SUPERIOR
LES WILL THEN BE THE RULE WED THRU FRI AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER
THE AREA (850MB TEMPS FALL TO -20 TO -25C). UTILIZED CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE USUAL AREAS FAVORED BY NW WINDS WED THRU FRI GIVEN VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LES. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ARRIVING SAT MAY RESULT
IN -SN SPREADING INTO AREAS AWAY FROM LES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SHSN OR FLURRIES AT
KCMX/KSAW...BUT IT SHOULDN/T AFFECT VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING AND JUST LEAVE SOME
PASSING MID CLOUDS. DID PUT A MENTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT
KSAW TOMORROW MORNING...SINCE THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THAT
POSSIBILITY. DID PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY FOR
IWD AS NEXT SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND LEAD
TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW
25KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK DUE TO WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THEN INCREASING
IN INTENSITY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO 30KTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH
COLDER AIR SURGING SOUTH...WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

423 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND LEADS TO VARIABLE
WINDS. THUS...EXPECT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS VFR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THAT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF -SHSN OR FLURRIES AT KCMX/KSAW...BUT IT SHOULDN/T AFFECT
VISIBILITIES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
JUST LEAVE SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS. DID PUT A MENTION OF SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS AT KSAW TOMORROW MORNING...SINCE THE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THAT POSSIBILITY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

312 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

INCREASED POPS/QPF S CENTRAL AND NEAR LAKE MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MUCH OF THE SYSTEM SNOW PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS KEEP IT AS A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
REGION...THE 26/00Z ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS 0.1 TO 0.16 ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE 26/06Z NAM HAS ALSO GONE WITH THIS MORE NW
PUSH OF MOISTURE...GIVING EXTRA CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELY POPS THAT
WHERE THROWN IN ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE SUNDAY NIGHT. UNDER A
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 04C...MIXED PRECIP
MAY BECOME A CONCERN EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. WILL NOT
GET TOO FANCY WITH PRECIP TYPE QUITE YET...GIVEN THE OVERALL
UNCERTAINLY IN PRECIP AMOUNTS. WILL STILL KEEP THE MENTION MIXED
PRECIP...AND MORE SPECIFICALLY FREEZING RAIN...FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD QUICKLY TAKE HOLD WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPS
REMAINING WARM AND AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR HIGHS MONDAY...850MB
TEMPS OF -1 TO 5C AT 06Z TUESDAY...AND COLDER AIR WORKING IN FROM
THE NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
OVER TO OR JUST REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. OVER THE S CENTRAL AND
FAR E PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MUCH OF THE MIXED PRECIP SHOULD STAY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E.

A SFC LOW OFF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE
ACROSS KS MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EJECTING NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 25/06Z ECMWF ENDS UP
BEING APPROX 12-18HRS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...EJECTING INTO
E ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF COOLER AIR WRAPPING
IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WORK WEEK...BACK TO CLIMO FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN OVER THE W HALF ON
THURSDAY. THIS COLDER AIR...AND NW WINDS OF 10-20KTS OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BRING AN EXTENDED OF LES ACROSS THE
FAVORABLE NW-NNW FLOW AREAS. KEPT WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
FAR W AND KEWEENAW PENINUSLA FROM TUESDAY NIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST PERIOD /FRIDAY/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

645 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE INTERESTING SYSTEM UNFOLDING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
INTENSE BAND OF SNOW WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
A STRONG ZONE OF FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER. AS THIS STRONGER AND
MORE PERSISTENT LIFT MOVED NORTH...THE AS ADVERTISED COLLAPSING OF
THE WARM NOSE BACK BELOW FREEZING ALLOWED THE EARLY INITIAL PUSH
OF FZRA/PL TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND QUITE THE
IMPRESSIVE SNOW IT HAS BEEN. WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW...RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN QUITE COMMON. HERE AT THE OFFICE
IN CHANHASSEN...WE GOT ABOUT 2.5 INCHES OF BETWEEN ABOUT 130 AND
330. THAT WOULD BE MORE SNOW IN 2 HOURS THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN THE
REST OF THE MONTH COMBINED!

THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST WITH THE FGEN...WITH
THE RAP SHOWING THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE ALL BUT DONE IN THE TWIN
CITIES BY 00Z...WITH IT NOT LASTING MUCH PAST 3Z IN THE LADYSMITH
AREA. CURRENT GRIDS MAY NOT BE FAST ENOUGH IN CLEARING PRECIP OUT
THIS EVENING...BUT THAT CAN BE UPDATED THROUGH THE EVENING. WHAT
WILL BE TRICKY THOUGH...IS THAT AS THE MAIN PRECIP BATCH MOVES
THROUGH...HAVE SEEN EXTENSIVE DZ/FG REPORTS ACROSS ERN NEB AND IA
THAT WILL BE MOVING UP HERE THIS EVENING AND DO EXPECT A 2-4 HR
WINDOW OF FZDZ BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP BEFORE WE ARE LEFT WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER FOGGY NIGHT...WITH A DENSE FOG ADVY POSSIBLY
IN THE BOOKS...THOUGH WILL WAIT UNTIL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE
PULLED DOWN BEFORE ISSUING ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. AS FOR THOSE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO TRIM A FEW COUNTIES
OFF THE ADVY ON THE NW END WHERE PRECIP FAILED TO REACH AND MNDOT
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE GOOD TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DOUBT WE WILL HIT
WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA FOR ANY ONE SPECIFIC TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION /0.25 INCH OF FZRA AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW/...BUT THE
COMBO OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FZRA BEING TOPPED WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WARRANTS KEEPING THE WARNING GOING...THOUGH WOULD
SUSPECT IT CAN BE PULLED BEFORE 6Z.

WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY...BEFORE THE
MAIN TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WHAT WILL MAKE THIS PRECIP EVENT DIFFICULT FROM THE
P-TYPE PERSPECTIVE IS THAT AS TODAYS PRECIP MOVES OUT...THE WARM
NOSE WILL MOVE BACK IN...WITH ANOTHER MELTING LAYER IN PLACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. MAIN SFC LOW IS
FORECAST TO GO FROM NW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE U.P. OF MICH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOWING TWO BATCHES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM. LLJ WARM SECTOR PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY WELL SE OF THE
AREA...WHILE ANOTHER INTENSE BAND OF FGEN INDUCED SNOW MOVES
ACROSS WRN INTO NE MN. WITH THIS SIGNAL...UPPED POPS TO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THE NW CWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW UP IN THE MORRIS/ALEX AREA. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA IS A BIT LOWER AS THESE TWO BATCHES OF
PRECIP SPLIT THE AREA...BUT WHATEVER HAPPENS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIP IN THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN SAY
THE P-TYPE WILL BE RA OR FZRA DEPENDING ON THE SFC TEMP.

AFTER NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
ENCROACHMENT OF ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE
STRONG CAA ALL DAY WEDNESDAY RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE GOES FROM THE DAKOTAS OVER TO THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL SEE ANOTHER HEALTHY SURGE OF COLD BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WITH H85 TEMPS BY THURSDAY AGAIN BACK BETWEEN 25 C AND
30 C BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE MN CWA ANOTHER SHOT AT
SEEING SUB ZERO HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED AS A CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS NRN MN AND WI FRI
NIGHT/SATURDAY. MAY SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OUT OF THIS
WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS BEING THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF I-94.

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT THE WHOLE PERIOD...WITH
A POSSIBLE DETERIORATION TO LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS FOG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF -SN OR
-FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE MINOR. THE NEXT ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEGINNING AS FZDZ AND TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
BEYOND THE PERIOD.

KMSP...OCCASIONAL -SN OR FZDZ AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT. COULD SEE LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-15Z WHEN THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FG OR FZFG ARRIVES. IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF VIS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH APPEARS TO BE
FZRA AT THE ONSET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WITH -FZRA TRANSITIONING TO -SN LATE.
LIGHT SE WIND BECOMING NW.
TUE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...MVFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON.
CHC -SN IN THE MORNING. NW WIND 5-10KT.
WED...MVFR CIGS. NW WIND 15G25KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ANOKA-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DAKOTA-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-RICE-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR POLK.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

MPG/BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

814 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CUSTER...GARFIELD AND WHEELER
COUNTIES SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WILL BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY AS WARRANTED.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT NEAR KGCC WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEAR HIGHWAY 20
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR IFR CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS NEAR HIGHWAY 2 MONDAY
MORNING SO THE FCST ACROSS NRN NEB IS UNCERTAIN.

SOUTH...ALONG INTERSTATE 80 NORTH AND SOUTH TO HIGHWAY 2 AND
HIGHWAY 6...FOG APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST SHALLOW FOG...AND THE RAP SUGGESTS FOG
NEAR KVTN ADDING TO THE FCST UNCERTAINTY ACROSS NRN NEB TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
HAVE TURNED MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER/MID 50S. STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG HANGING ON IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RECENT RAINFALL FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS LEFT THE GROUND DAMP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM
0.05 TO 0.25 INCH. DENSE FOG WHICH DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
RAIN THIS MORNING COULD AGAIN DEVELOP THIS EVENING A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR FOG.
HOWEVER DAMP AND COLD GROUND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IS
OPTIMAL FOR RADIATION FOG. THUS...HAVE AREAS OF FOG SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WITH PATCHY FOG NORTH CENTRAL 03Z TIL 15Z MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY FROM 26 TO 30 DEGREES.

ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY. APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH
WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCOLGENESIS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
AN OGALLALA THROUGH ONEILL LINE SHOULD WARM TO 50 DEGREES WITH
NEAR 60 POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TO THE NORTHWEST...HIGHS
TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. AS LIFT FROM NORTHERN STREAM
THROUGH BEGINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW FAR NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT BUT WEAKER WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE NAM MODEL WHICH
INDICATES FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND 700MB. THIS
MAY LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW BANDS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. OVERALL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKEN TUESDAY. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MORNING. COLDER AREA WIDE 35 TO 40 DEGREES. SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. LOW TO BE 10 TO 15 ABOVE AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
FROM 18 AT ONEILL TO 35 AT IMPERIAL.

LONG TERM...

AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COLDER DAY THURSDAY. HIGHS FROM 13 AT ONEILL
TO 35 AT IMPERIAL. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS. UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AVIATION...

SOME QUESTION ON THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AS SOME MODEL DATA NOT INDICATING THE FOG. FEEL
THOUGH THAT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AT
LEAST GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
CONTINUE BRINGING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO IFR AT KLBF DURING THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT GO WITH ANY LIFR OR VLIFR AT THIS TIME...BUT
SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING
THE KVTN TERMINAL...STRATUS MAY MOVE SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY
MORNING. HERE TOO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE INTO
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THOUGH TONIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ028-029-038.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

529 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT NEAR KGCC WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEAR HIGHWAY 20
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR IFR CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS NEAR HIGHWAY 2 MONDAY
MORNING SO THE FCST ACROSS NRN NEB IS UNCERTAIN.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

331 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE ASSOCIATED DETAILS WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DRIZZLE AND FOG
AS LIFT DECREASES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY IN SOUTHEAST NEB NEAR H85 FRONT AND IN
THE NORTHEAST NEB WITH A COLD FRONT AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
INTO TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND BRISK SOUTH WINDS HAVE
WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH BEATRICE NEARLY
REACHING 60. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VARIABLE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND METARS...LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING
TO WORK NORTH AND THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID 30S
DEWPOINTS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA...SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROF HAD MOVED INTO THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. BY MIDDAY AND THERE WERE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA. THIS WAVE WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE H9 JET IS FROM THE SOUTH AT 25 TO 35KT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 45KT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z.
MEANWHILE...THE NOSE OF THE H85 50KT JET IS OVER SOUTHWEST KS.
THETA-ADVECTION AND H7 OMEGA INCREASE ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH 06Z
AND THEN ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI THROUGH 12Z. THERE
ALSO IS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT BY 12Z.

THE 4KM WRF/NAM/GFS/SREF/EC/RAP ARE SIMILAR IN HAVING THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA SHOULD PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN.
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS. THE
NAM SEEMS QUITE COOL...AND SEVERAL OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT
WARMER. TRENDED WITH THE WARMER RAP TEMPERATURES VERSUS THE
COOLER NAM TEMPS. WITH THE VERY MILD CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AND STRONG SOUTH FLOW...THINK MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...SO LEFT
FREEZING MENTION ONLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES. AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST...SO DOES THE PRECIPITATION AND LOOK FOR DRIZZLE AND
FOG LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO VARY FROM 0.1 TO .4 OF AN INCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR FALLS CITY BY 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT GET SCOURED OUT. WITH THE WEAK
FLOW OVERNIGHT DO MENTION FOG. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FOG FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...AS
THIS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS.

MONDAY...THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF. THIS FRONT HAS SOME
DECENT FRONTOGENESIS WITH IT AND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD BRING
SOME RAIN...A MIX AND THEN POSSIBLE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
THIS BAND AND ALSO NEAR THE H85 FRONT IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW...TOP/EAX HAVE SOME TSRA MENTIONED IN THEIR CWA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THEN ALL SNOW NORTH.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A CHALLENGE EACH DAY AND HAVE HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 FAR NORTH TO THE 50S
SOUTH. TUESDAY HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH.

ZAPOTOCNY

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR MON/TUE WILL
JUST BE EXITING THE REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND WILL LINGER SOME SCHC
POPS FOR -SN IN THE SOUTH AS THIS EXITS...OTHERWISE THE EXTENDED
PART OF THE FORECAST IS DRY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FA ON WED NIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER HIGHS ON THU AND
LOWS THU NIGHT. BUT LIKE RECENT COLD SURGES...THIS WILL BE GREATLY
MODIFIED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE FA. THUS WE ARE
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST ON ON
FRI/SAT AND ALLOW FOR SOME DOWN-SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR TO SPILL BACK
INTO THE FA. NORMAL HIGHS WITH NO SNOW COVER BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND WE SEE NO REASON WE CAN`T
GET NEAR THESE NUMBERS. THUS WE HAVE GONE ABOVE THE CLIMO HEAVY MOS
GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

BOUSTEAD

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN
CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVF AND IFR
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN AFTER 10Z AT KOMA
AND KLNK AND AFTER 12Z AT KOFK. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 00Z AT KOFK AND AFTER
02-03Z AT KLNK AND KOMA.

SMITH

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1128 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER
LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
AFTER AS AN AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20KT. RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS
WILL COMMENCE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

DERGAN

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND PRECIPITATION AND
PRECIP TYPE WITH MONDAY SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S AND
50S...HOWEVER MUCH COLDER AIR LIES TO THE NORTH WITH TEENS AS FAR
SOUTH AS HURON SD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COLD
AIR. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR AND SUB-ZERO READINGS WILL HOLD
OVER IN SD AND MN...TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS (POSSIBLY SINGLE
DIGITS NEAR WAYNE AND MAPLETON) SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 20S FOR THE SOUTH. SOME CIRRUS
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY LOW AND MID CLOUDS NORTH. SURFACE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND HAVE A DECENT GRADIENT IN
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES FROM MAPLETON TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
FAIRBURY.

WITH THE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND STILL OFF THE CA/MEXICAN
COAST...THERE COULD BE SAMPLING ISSUES AND OPENS THE FORECAST UP
TO TIMING CHANGES. FOR NOW...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. SATURDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE PLAINS.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
INTO THE PLAINS. THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH COULD EASILY START IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER...AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND IOWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION COULD
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW ZERO
(MAINLY NORTH OF A NORFOLK TO TEKAMAH TO OAKLAND)...HOWEVER HAVE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN. THE BEST LIFT
APPEARS FROM AROUND 10Z TO 20Z SUNDAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES TO THE REGION... .5 INCH TO 1
INCH. FOR NOW A BEST ESTIMATE OF AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM IS LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER AT NORFOLK NORTHWESTWARD...A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO OMAHA TO LINCOLN AND A HALF AN INCH
TOWARD FALLS CITY. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
AND 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HIT THE 50S SOUTH.

THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROF IS STILL TO THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DOES NOT GET SCOURED OUT. WITH THE WEAK FLOW DO HAVE SOME
FOG MENTIONED AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FREEZING FOG CONDITIONS.
A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY AND BEHIND THE H85 COLD
FRONT A BAND OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

ZAPOTOCNY

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS STILL THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN SOME SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN FLUCTUATION IN REGARDS TO THE TROUGH AS IT
CROSSES THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
CONSISTENT GFS/GEM WITH REGARDS TO THE INTERACTION OF THE NRN AND
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE LARGER MEAN TROUGH BUT STILL THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THAT WILL MOVE THE CWA. THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE THAT A CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON MON
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH KS/MO AND STARTS TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE FNT COULD LEAD
TO A LITTLE -RA/SN MIX ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
LOOKS VERY LOW ATTM. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHC/SCHC POPS FOR THESE
TWO PERIODS. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT THRU FRI WITH DRY
WEATHER THESE PERIODS. THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
BE MODIFIED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY.

BOUSTEAD

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

930 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
SHOWERS LIKELY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...

NO CHANGE TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TONIGHT. LIGHT PRECIP ON
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY IS
NOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST TN....THOUGH WITH A LIMITED NUMBER OF
SITES REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE 00Z KGSO RAOB CAME IN PRETTY
MUCH IN TUNE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DRY
LAYER BETWEEN 850MB AND 600MB...COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THE HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EXPAND PRECIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 1AM AND 8AM. HOWEVER...RAP
SOUNDINGS NEVER QUITE SHOW SATURATION BELOW 1KM...SO IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE WEATHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TO SUFFICIENTLY OVERCOME THE DRY AIR BELOW 10K FT.
THUS..UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS BASED AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED RAPIDLY BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS EAST OF US
HWY 1 WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS YET TO MOVE IN. WEST OF US
HWY 1...TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THEY THEY MAY ONLY FALL TO AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH
SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS ALREADY ESSENTIALLY AT 30 OR ABOVE.

BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS HIGHEST NORTH OF THE
TRIANGLE INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...GENERALLY FROM CHAPEL
HILL/DURHAM TO LOUISBURG...WARRENTON AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST AS
ROANOKE RAPIDS. HALIFAX COUNTY IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE ADVISORY AND
BASED ON COORDINATION OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING TO THE ADVISORY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER SENSE OF HOW THE PRECIP
IS EVOLVING. WE STILL EXPECT THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO BE PATCHY
AND LIGHT...JUST A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
-SMITH

MONDAY...FIRST AREA OF PRECIP EXITS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY IN
THE MORNING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SLY WILL MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPOTS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. STILL
CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S FAR NORTH TO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID
50S FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...

FOR MONDAY NIGHT: THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER A BIT SO AS TO
GREATLY DIMINISH THE LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE... BUT THE COMBINATION
OF EARLY-NIGHT GROUND COOLING RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION
(REINFORCED BY STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 950-850 MB) AND
MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THICK STRATUS AND FOG WITHIN
THE RESIDUAL STABLE POOL OVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC STARTING IN THE
EARLY EVENING... ALONG WITH PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE NRN
PIEDMONT BENEATH THE TAIL OF THE EXITING LOW LEVEL JET. WITH A
SLOWLY MODIFYING AIR MASS AND CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA... EXPECT
LOWS TO BE MINIMALLY LOWER THAN MONDAY HIGHS... 40-47.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. THE
OFFSHORE PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS WHILE HEIGHTS STEADILY RISE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH LONGWAVE TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT HOWEVER ESPECIALLY IN WRN NC THROUGH
THE WRN PIEDMONT... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
LEVEL STABLE LAYER WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE VIA TRADITIONAL EROSION
MECHANISMS SUCH AS VERTICAL MIXING... EDGE DISSOLUTION AND
HORIZONTAL DISPERSION... AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS WHICH SUGGEST SUPPRESSED WARMTH OVER THE PIEDMONT.
WILL NOT DEPART FAR FROM THIS EARLIER FORECAST... WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM 60 NW TO 76 SE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS IS
STILL 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. THE MSLP GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NC WITH THE GROWING CONTRAST BETWEEN THE
OFFSHORE HIGH AND INCOMING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND CLOUDS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MILD PREFRONTAL LOWS... AND HAVE
RAISED THEM SEVERAL DEGREES TO 54-61. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING PRECIP WATER TO
OVER 1 INCH AND DEEPENING MOIST UPGLIDE.

FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDY/WET/WARM FOLLOWED BY A STARK
COOLDOWN. THE RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FASTER WITH THE
INCOMING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WARM-CONVEYOR BAND OF SHOWERS... WHILE
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS HAS SHOWN JUST A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND AND
AGREES WITH THE ECMWF TIMING. CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGS IN
JUST LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE
MORE NUMEROUS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING SWEEPING WEST TO EAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1.5 INCHES... HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JANUARY (IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE)... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL
TO FREEZING OF 3.0-3.2 KM)... THUS HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL... FOCUSING AFTER 18Z IN THE
PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS AND AFTER 23Z IN THE ERN SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN. THE VERTICAL PROFILE BECOMES NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
AT BEST... AND WITH THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY
IN THE MIXED PHASE REGION ALOFT... WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS
TIME DUE TO ITS EXPECTED SPARSITY BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO
LATER FORECASTS. DESPITE THE LACK OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ALONE FAVOR QUITE A WINDY DAY... SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH... AND WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE
THESE NUMBERS COME UP A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS TOO... ONCE WE CAN
OBSERVE UPSTREAM PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS. EVEN WITH THE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS... WE SHOULD SEE STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO
HALF INCH... LIMITED BY THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS FROM 64 NW
TO 76 SE. LOWS 36-46 WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT... AND SKIES CLEARING LATE. -GIH

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE DAMPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE HEADING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING... ALTHOUGH EYES
THEN TURN TO A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY... POISED TO SWING THROUGH THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PLUNGE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING... FROM 55-60 METERS ABOVE NORMAL
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER NORMAL AS MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST. WE SHOULD STAY A LITTLE BREEZY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGHS 44-55 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ALREADY-SWIFT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ANEW TO 140+ KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING ENERGY ALOFT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT
AT THIS RANGE... THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER A BIT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT CROSSES THE AREA
FRIDAY... BUT THIS PATTERN WITH DECENT DYNAMIC FORCING... COLD AIR
IN PLACE... AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING A TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE... DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF A QUICK SNOW
SHOWER... AND IF THE ECMWF`S STRONGER WAVE IS CORRECT... SCATTERED
COVERAGE COULD BE ACHIEVED. WILL PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW
SHOWER ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. WITH THICKNESSES FRIDAY RUNNING 20
METER BELOW NORMAL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS... EXPECT HIGHS OF JUST 36-40 IN THE NORTH AND 40-46
SOUTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: AS A YUKON-SOURCE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD FROM THE NNW WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES EXTENDING WELL DOWN
TO OUR LATITUDE... EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHILLY
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE SWINGING
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL
BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION... REINFORCING THE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS. NO POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME YET BUT ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S. -GIH

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM SUNDAY...

PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY IN THE 06-13Z
TIMEFRAME ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARD TO THE CHANCE AND AMOUNT OF
FREEZING RAIN. THUS... HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT AT KGSO/KINT (WHERE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY IS). HOWEVER... AS THE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES... THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING TROUGH AT LEAST
AROUND DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH AT KFAY... WE MAY SEE ENOUGH INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO RESULT IN POSSIBLY SOME
SUB VFR VISBYS AND/OR CIGS. HOWEVER... BY MID MORNING EXPECT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA... RESULTING IN LOWERING CIGS. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LOW CIGS APPEARS TO BE AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU... IN A
DEVELOPING WEAK WEDGE AIRMASS. AT THESE SITES... EXPECT CIGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISBYS BY LATE IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST... MODEL SOUNDING ARE NOT AS CLEAR WITH REGARD TO HOW LOW CIGS
WILL FALL AND IF AND DRIZZLE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL SO
MVFR CIGS AT THESE SITES FROM MID MORNING ON.

IFR/MVFR CIGS MONDAY WILL LOWER INTO IFR/LIFR CRITERIA ALONG WITH
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG BY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING... LINGERING THE LONGEST AT
KGSO/KINT.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILING/VSBY.

IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1045 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2013

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV SET... EXCEPT TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND ITS NORTHWARD PUSH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP PROBABILITIES REMAIN TO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2013/

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING IS TO SKY COVER. HRRR AND NAM ARE BOTH
SHOWING A SIGNAL OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AT LOW LEVELS /AND
LIKELY THEREFORE STRATUS/ MOVING UP FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THIS
STRATUS WILL BE PERSISTENT INTO AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY.. SO HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS FOR TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2013/

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD AND COULD SEE
STRATUS DECK APPROACH I-44 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY AFTN. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND WILL
PICK UP IN SPEED... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE FORECAST OUT WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS DECK HAS KEPT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
COOLER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH...HAVE SEEN SLOW EROSION OF STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH SOME PARTS OF SE OK WILL REMAIN OVERCAST.
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP US FROM COOLING OFF TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY OVER SE
OK...WHERE LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

A MODEST UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE FA...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS FAR
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SRN KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT...AND MOST AREAS THAT
DO GET RAIN WILL SEE FROM ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL. PERSISTENT WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
LOWS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS...LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN
COLORADO. CONTINUING S/SE FLOW WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDY AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLY CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PERSISTENT
SRLY/SWRLY FLOW WILL INDUCE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...WHICH MAY
CLIMB AS HIGH AS 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY.

AS A POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA...WITH STRENGTHENING
SFC CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED
SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY. AS THIS FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON EXPECTED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WIND
FIELDS...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARILY A HAIL/WIND THREAT. STORMS SHOULD
RAPIDLY MOVE EWD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO
OFFER LITTLE CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP...OR ANY PRECIP AT ALL FOR
THAT MATTER...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 31 54 48 67 / 0 0 40 30
HOBART OK 30 58 46 68 / 0 0 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 34 63 51 72 / 10 0 20 10
GAGE OK 29 57 46 72 / 0 0 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 28 58 47 67 / 0 10 60 50
DURANT OK 40 51 49 69 / 10 20 30 20

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION UNCHANGED... MODELS

CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY PROGRESSING SE OF THE

FORECAST AREA TONIGHT..LEAVING THE
REGION IN A COOL MOIST AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS TO KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING. A COUPLE
OF OTHER FEATURES THOUGH WILL TEND TO ENHANCE POPS AT TIMES...THE
FIRST IS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING 138W THIS AFTERNOON THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH IN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. THE SECOND IS A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NNW LATE SUN. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY HANDLED THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT BOTH SHOW MOIST BUT MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K...WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATE SUN. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO MON.
MODELS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN BELOW PASSES...AND
POSSIBLY INTO FOOTHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH OVERRUNNING SETTING UP
FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON...SNOW LEVELS IN CASCADES LIKELY TO REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE WEST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THOUGH SHOW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OR INTENSITY OF INCOMING FRONTS. BASICALLY...SHOWERS TAPER
OFF TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN EAST-MOVING FRONT. THE GFS HOLDS
SHOWERS OVER THE CWA ON WED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
WOULD BE SOMETIME THURSDAY...AND AGAIN THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
WITH PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM DROPS OVER THE RIDGETHURSDAY.
WILL STAY WITH CURRENT POPS EXCEPT TO TAPER SOUTHERNMOST AREAS TO
LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. WEDNESDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE FOR BEING
THE DRIEST DAY IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL MODELS
SETTLE SOMEWHAT. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY PERIOD LOOKS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS MODELS AGREE ON PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE INLAND AS
PATTERN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. KWELSON
&&

.AVIATION...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST AROUND
08Z TONIGHT AND INLAND 10Z-13Z. A FEW AREAS OF LIFR FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH
08Z-10Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR AND IFR STRATUS ACROSS
MOST AREAS. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MIXING EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT SO CURRENT IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT.
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT THEN EASE. A WEAKER FRONT ARRIVES SUN
MORNING...THEN HIGH PRES MOVE CLOSER TO THE PACNW MON THROUGH MID
WEEK FOR NWLY WINDS. LONG PERIOD SWELL AT OR ABOVE 10 FEET WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1123 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2013

.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS AT 05Z HAS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
KCLL TO NEAR KOCH. DO NOT SEE BOUNDARY WORKING ANY FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG THAT
MAY LIMIT VSBY TO MVFR LEVELS. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THICKEN OVER SE TX PER IR/LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGERY. HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND THERE IS ALSO A
MVFR STRATUS DECK TO CONTEND WITH OVER MUCH OF THE HOUSTON AREA.
DECIDED TO MAINLY GO MVFR FOR VSBY FOR TAF SITES AND TEMPO
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE THINK CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND
MVFR LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR KGLS FOR
SEA FOG BUT THERE HAS BEEN NO DEVELOPMENT AS OF YET. WINDS DO
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE SE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT BUT THINK BEST
CHANCE FOR SEA FOG WILL BE TOMORROW EVENING AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SE/ESE WITH TIME. THINK MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH SE WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THINK
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH BRENHAM AND WAS
APPROACHING COLLEGE STATION...MADISONVILLE...AND CROCKETT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES AND RAP MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTHWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET HAS FORMED THIS
EVENING AS SHOWN ON THE KHGX AND THOU VAD WIND PROFILES JUST ABOVE
1000 FEET. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED OVER GALVESTON BAY
AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF FREEPORT. THE MODELS
ACTUALLY CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BECAUSE OF THESE LIMITING
FACTORS...FELT THAT THE FOG THREAT IS NOW LOWER THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS. IF THE FRONT SAGS
A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IT WILL HELP POOL THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE A BIT HIGHER. THIS MAY THEN HELP BACK THE WINDS A BIT TO
BE MORE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. IF THESE EVENTS OCCUR...THE
CHANCES FOR SEA FOG FORMATION WILL INCREASE.

HOWEVER...FOR NOW UPDATED THE WEATHER TO TAKE OUT THE DENSE FOG
AND TO GO WITH JUST PATCHY FOG. ALSO UPDATED THE CLOUD COVER...
DEWPOINTS...AND HUMIDITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2013/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE BETTER HALF OF A WEEK...FOG WILL BE
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE TAFS. PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE MAY
HAVE BEEN TOO PESSIMISTIC SO THERE WILL BE SOME FURTHER
MODIFICATIONS GOING TOWARDS 06Z TAF CYCLE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME
MENTION OF LIFR/IFR CIGS BUT LOOKING AT WIND FIELDS FROM THE S/SW
AND TD NOT AS HIGH AS FORECASTED...HAVE SOME DOUBTS TO HOW MUCH
FOG WILL DEVELOP. THINK LOW VSBY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO COAST BUT
HOW MUCH FARTHER IT DEVELOPS IS THE MAIN QUESTION. WILL KEEP LIFR
MENTIONED FOR KHOU BUT ONLY MENTION IFR CIG AT KIAH. SEEMS MODEL
TRENDS MAY BE POINTING TO NOT BEING AS PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG AND
NOT TURNING WINDS TO THE SE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. WILL
MONITOR 00Z GUIDANCE AND LIKELY MAKE FURTHER MODIFICATIONS TO TAFS
BASED OFF 00Z GUIDANCE AND ONGOING TRENDS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 75 59 74 63 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 61 77 60 75 63 / 10 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 59 72 61 71 62 / 10 10 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

934 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA...TRIGGERING
PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN
AN UNSEASONABLE WARMUP ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MID-WEEK...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO WINTERTIME TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EST SUNDAY...

SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 7H THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY WEAK RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WHERE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 20S. PRECIP ATTEMPTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN UPON ENCOUNTERING THIS DRY POCKET AND
WILL STILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR BETTER MOISTENING TO OCCUR FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP TO RUN ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 460 WITH ONLY THE HRRR AT BIT MORE AGRESSIVE IN SLIDING A
A SWATH OF LIGHT QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER
DO THINK THAT THE FAR NW COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE QPF SO UPPED ICE
TOTALS A LITTLE ACROSS THE COLDER SECTIONS OF THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY EAST INTO THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY PER
THE LATEST 00Z NAM. SOUTH OF THAT AREA...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL BE OBSERVED SINCE
SEEING A NICE DRY SLOT WITH THE UPPER JET BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND
NOW IN FAR SW VA WHICH COULD SPLIT THE PRECIP...PER LATEST RAP SO
SOMETHING TO WATCH. HOWEVER DOES APPEAR THAT THE NW NC MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE ICE EARLY ON GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SO
BOOSTED ICE AMOUNTS THERE SLIGHTLY AS WELL. OTRW SURFACE TEMPS
STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WEST OF I-77 IN VIRGINIA SO WONT
INCLUDE ANY ADDED CTYS OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST POPS TO MATCH TIMING
A BIT BETTER WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTS TO TEMPS AS EXPECT DEWPTS TO
RISE SOME AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING DEVELOPS BEFORE ANY PRECIP
ACTUALLY REACHES THE SURFACE OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER SW RIDGES.

BY LATE MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKS ITS WAY TO THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH DEEPER AREAS OF THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY...THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND PARTS OF
THE ROANOKE VALLEY MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO WARM. MONDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
THE LOW 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...

ROLLER-COASTER WEATHER THIS PERIOD. WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TO THE
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND BROADENS OUT AS IT ARRIVES IN OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SW FLOW WILL KEEP SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS
AROUND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NWRN CWA WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE. THE
PATTERN...WET GROUND...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG IN LATE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP ENOUGH WHERE SOME AREAS COULD HAVE FOG BUT NOT
DENSE. MAIN IMPACT AREA SEEMS TO BE THE PIEDMONT PER THE LATEST SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR VSBYS LESS THAN 1SM.

ANY FOG WILL BE ERODING TUESDAY AS THIS SHOULD BE OUR WARMEST
DAY...UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING AND PRECIP SLOW DOWN WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S MOST LOCATIONS. COULD SEE A
RECORD HIGH AT BLF AS 63F IS FORECAST AND THE RECORD IS 64 SET IN
2002. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TUESDAY.

WILL SEE INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PRECIP CHANCES HEADING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE GOING TO INCREASE
AS WELL LATE OVER THE MTNS. THE LOW LVL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE MTN
EMPIRE AREA WILL NOT BE IN THE TYPICAL FAVORED SSE FLOW FOR HIGH
WINDS...BUT THIS SYSTEM APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH GIVEN MODELS
PROJECTING A 50-60 KNOT JET AT 8H ARRIVING OVERHEAD BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WENT MILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...PIEDMONT AND URBAN AREAS WITH 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND WIND DRIVEN AND SPC HAS US IN AN
OUTLOOK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY. ON THE SIDE FAVORING
SEVERE IS THE WIND ENERGY WITH 70+ KNOT LLJ MOVING FROM TN/OH VALLEY
WED MORNING TO DELMARVA AT 18Z WED...WITH SECONDARY WIND MAX PUSHING
FROM UPSTATE SC TO ERN VA IN THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS TOP OF THE
CHARTS PER HODOGRAPHS. CONDITIONS INHIBITING SVR ARE WEAK LAPSE
RATES...LOTS OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPE.

HOWEVER...CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A CASE WHERE SOME OF THE
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT BRING DOWN GUSTS OVER 50 MPH OR
MORE...SIMILAR TO SOME OF THE EVENTS WE GET IN LATE FEB-
MARCH...WHERE THUNDER IS LIMITED. ADDED THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
NOW TO THE FORECAST IN THE MTN EMPIRE/SE WV INTO NW NC BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AND OUT EAST IN THE AFTN.

THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND THIS MAY BE THE
CASE GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THIS MAY NEED TO ADJUSTED LATER
SHIFTS...AS FOR NOW WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF RAIN IN THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTN TIME FRAME...EXITING WED NIGHT.

THIS WILL AFFECT HIGHS SOMEWHAT BUT KEPT IN THE PIEDMONT WARM WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WEST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AS 8H TEMPS CRASH FROM
+10C WED AFTN TO -5 TO -8C LATE WED NIGHT.

MOISTURE STAYS IN THE WRN COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE SOME WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH MODELS ONLY SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 8H.

TEMPS WED NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 20S WEST TO UPPER 30S
EAST...ALTHOUGH MAY STAY WARMER IF SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND THE
CLOUDS/WIND DESPITE THE CAA KEEP TEMPS MORE ELEVATED LONGER.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THURSDAY. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...WITH READINGS FROM
AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW
FLURRIES. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SHOULD ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
LOOKED MORE ROBUST ON ECMWF THAN THE GFS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH VALUES FROM THE TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OR END AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. KEEP YOUR WINTER COATS READY
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
40 IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. THE HIGH CENTER MARCHES EAST
TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT TRAVELS EAST AND REACHES THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE TROF AXIS
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ON SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM EST SUNDAY...

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH CIGS CONFINED MAINLY TO ABOVE 6K FEET. HOWEVER
MOISTURE OFF TO THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY MOISTEN THE COLUMN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH MVFR LEVELS BY
MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST...AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE EAST.

WARM FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED AXIS OF PRECIP WILL SLIDE BY TO THE
NW OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP ARCING FAR ENOUGH SE
TO CLIP MUCH OF THE REGION BY MORNING. ASSOCIATED PTYPE LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. KDAN APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP
AND MAY MISS OUT ON SEEING MUCH AT ALL. ELSW STILL EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT MIX ROUGHLY IN THE 06Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME WITH THE
MAJORITY SWINGING THROUGH THE KLWB VICINITY WITH LESS SOUTH OF A
KLYH-KROA-KBCB LINE. EXPECT TEMPS MAY NUDGE UP JUST ENOUGH ABOVE
FREEZING TO CAUSE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBLF TO SWITCH BACK TO JUST
RAIN BEFORE TAPERING MID MORNING MONDAY. OTRW KEEPING IT MAINLY
-FZRA FOR NOW. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD ALSO BE LOWEST ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER SO CANT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF
IFR AT KLWB...WHILE EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY MVFR LEVEL CLOUD
BASES ELSW FOR NOW. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEHIND THE
EXITING PRECIP MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CIGS POSSIBLY LOWER AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING LOBE OF MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE ANOTHER PERIOD OF -RA COULD OCCUR AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP SHIELD ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AND
GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE REGION MIDWEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT COLD AIR INCLUDING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS WITH -SHSN AT KBLF/KLWB WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN -SHSN ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS ON FRIDAY.

DUE TO THE MISSING OBSERVATION FROM KBCB...INCLUDING AMD NOT SKED
FOR THE TAF FORECAST THERE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN UPCOMING CIGS AND
VSBYS AS PRECIP ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ010>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042>045.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/MBS/NF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1114 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
413 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TYPES AND
AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AN UPPER LOW NEAR
SAN DIEGO CA...RIDGING PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
TROUGHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE FORECAST AREA
LIES IN THE SUBSIDENT PORTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGING...RESULTING
IN DRYING AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. 00Z MPX SOUNDING SHOWED
A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.17
INCHES OVERALL. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WAS ALSO RELATIVELY CHILLY WITH A 925MB TEMP OF -17C AT MPX.
COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND THE CHILLY
AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. TO THE NORTHWEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MN...ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ON
WATER VAPOR BECOMING ENHANCED BY UPPER JET FORCING...AS WELL AS WARM
ADVECTION. WELL TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 0.8 INCHES AND HIGHER WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS AND
LOUIS ANA...WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE SAN DIEGO UPPER LOW.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGHING JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DIGGING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THIS IS QUITE
FAR AWAY FROM HERE...THERE ARE NUMEROUS IMPACTS FROM IT. THE FIRST
IS TO KEEP PUSHING THE RIDGING COMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AT 12Z SUNDAY. WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE...
WITH 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO -6 TO -10C BY 00Z AND -2 TO -5C BY 12Z
SUNDAY. THE SECOND IMPACT IS TO EJECT AND POSSIBLY SHEAR OUT THE SAN
DIEGO CA UPPER LOW...LIFTING IT UP TO AROUND GOODLAND KS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. AS THIS UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...PULLING THE MOISTURE SEEN ACROSS TEXAS
NORTHWARD. AT 12Z SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.8-1
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS DES MOINES IA AND OMAHA
NE...WHICH ARE ALMOST 300 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. WITH SO MUCH
MOISTURE RUNNING INTO A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS PRESENT HERE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD EASILY
DEVELOP. 26.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 12Z.
NOTE...THOUGH...THAT BY 12Z...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRESENT FROM
KANSAS CITY TO OMAHA AND DES MOINES. FULL SUN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY FILTERED SUN THROUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...COMBINED
WITH THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN AND LIMITED SNOW ON THE GROUND...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. CLOUDS
FURTHER INCREASE TONIGHT...AND WITH WINDS PICKING UP ADVECTING
WARMER/MOIST AIR IN...THINK TEMPERATURES WILL FALL JUST A LITTLE IN
THE EVENING THEN MOSTLY HOLD STEADY OR RISE. FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE
CLOUD INCREASE TONIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN PRODUCE
A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES FROM THE MID CLOUDS
THIS EVENING. ADDED SOME FLURRIES FOR NOW...GIVEN DRY WEATHER
SIGNALED BY OTHER MODELS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGHING DIGGING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO DIG EVEN MORE DURING THIS PERIOD...AIDED
TOO BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE RESULT BY 12Z MONDAY IS A FULL-FLEDGED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
1/3 OF THE U.S. IN RESPONSE...500MB HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE REST OF THE U.S.. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW
NEAR GOODLAND KS AT 12Z TO LIFT UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
MONDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON STRENGTH...BUT THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT AROUND THE
KC...OMAHA AND DES MOINES AREAS WILL END UP TRANSLATING NORTHEAST
WITH THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW...IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD
SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE SURGE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER (FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) COMBINES WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS NOW THAT MUCH OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY WILL SEE PRECIPITATION. IN
FACT...EVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS BETWEEN THE 26.00Z
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN...26.06Z NAM AND 26.03Z SREF ARE ALL REALLY
CLOSE...IN THE 0.25-0.6 RANGE...AND AGAIN MUCH OF THIS FALLING
DURING THAT 18Z SUN - 06Z MON. THE HIGHEST MAXIMUM HAS SHIFTED
NORTH...AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN MORE. IT IS INTERESTING SCENARIO WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. INITIALLY THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE. THIS FAVORS MORE OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AT THE ONSET...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/SNOW
QUICKLY AS DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES OVER. YOU CAN SEE THIS NICELY IN
850MB TEMPS FROM THE MODELS. AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY THE WARM AIR STARTS SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...CAUSING THE SNOW OR SLEET TO TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. THEN...TO MAKE MATTERS
WORSE...THE ICE BEGINS TO LEAVE THE CLOUDS...LEAVING WHAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN SUMMARY...A MESS.
COULD REALLY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SLEET IN THIS EVENT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90...SINCE THE BALANCE OF COOLING FROM
PRECIPITATION AND THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPS THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT
IN THE 1-3C RANGE. GIVEN THAT WE COULD HAVE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION
TYPES EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA...AS WELL AS THE MODEL TRENDS NORTH
WITH THE MAX QPF...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT FOR TAYLOR WHICH LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH TO WARRANT A WATCH AT
THIS TIME. ON A SIDE NOTE...AFTER THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES TO
DRIZZLE...SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION. RECENT
PRECIPITATION PLUS DRYING ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD GROUND ALL
SPELL FOG. ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THAT THE WESTERN TROUGH SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE AREA DRY FOR MONDAY. NOTE
THAT THERE IS TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT
26.00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS DO NOT DEPICT ANY LIFT WITHIN THIS CLOUD
LAYER. THUS...THE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE REMOVED.
HOWEVER...FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE MORNING. SREF
VISIBILITY PROGS FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT 12Z
MONDAY WHEN LOOKING AT A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE. WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SHUT OFF ON MONDAY...925MB TEMPS ARE REALLY ALLOWED TO
WARM...CLIMBING TO 0-4C BY 00Z TUESDAY. THUS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE HIGHS POP ABOVE FREEZING EVEN DESPITE THE CLOUDS. IN FACT...FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS COULD GET CLOSE TO 40. A NEW ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
STARTS UP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN THAT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE THE NEAR SURFACE AIR COLD
ADVECTING WHILE THE AIR ALOFT SAY AT 850MB STAYS WARM (TEMPS ABOVE
2C)...CONCERNED THAT WE COULD END UP WITH FREEZING RAIN AND THUS
ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
413 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

THE TWO BIG HIGHLIGHTS HERE ARE THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM FROM
MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CONSISTENT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE REALLY CHANGED THEIR TUNE FROM
YESTERDAY...NO LONGER CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH. NOW THE WESTERN TROUGH IS SUGGESTED BY PRETTY MUCH
EVERY MODEL TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS IT DOES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS GOING TO BE
WATCHING HOW STRONG THIS LOW IS...WHICH DEPENDS ON HOW QUICK ARCTIC
AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NEW 26.06Z GFS AND
TO SOME DEGREE THE 26.00Z CANADIAN PHASE THE TWO TOGETHER...
RESULTING IN A DEEP LOW. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE
POSITIVELY TILTED LOOK...THUS A WEAKER LOW AND MUCH LESS QPF AND
WIND. NONETHELESS...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE REQUIRED FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY WE COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH SNOW...RAIN...SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IT TO RAIN/SNOW. ARCTIC
AIR THEN RUSHES IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -20 TO -24C. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY
WITH PERHAPS A NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
1114 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
AND PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES MAINLY AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THEN INTO THE IFR TO LIFR CATEGORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. PLAN ON CEILINGS IN THE 5-8KFT
RANGE. THE CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY LOWER LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW MOVES IN. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING INTO THE 10 TO 14 KT RANGE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
413 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

530 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
413 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TYPES AND
AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
413 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
530 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT ITS INFLUENCE
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THRU TONIGHT. GOOD VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT AS THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON/
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES AWAY...BUT THE INCREASE OF
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR OUT OF THE
HIGH OVER THE AREA.

BIG CHANGES FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...AS A SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PULLS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS...WITH SOME GULF OF MEX
MOISTURE...NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A MESS OF WINTRY PCPN TYPES
LOOKS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS OF
SUN...ALONG WITH CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING MVFR/IFR. PERIODS OF -SN/PL/
-FZRA LOOK TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER 15Z SUNDAY INTO SUN
EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/ICING ON THE AIRFIELDS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
413 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

413 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
413 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TYPES AND
AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
413 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

.AVIATION...
1115 PM CST FRI JAN 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING
IN SKC AND A DECREASING WIND TREND. THE HIGH EXITS FAIRLY QUICKLY
EAST ON SAT THOUGH...WITH HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
EAST/SOUTHEAST ON SAT...BUT REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS UP SAT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KRST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...A MESS OF WINTRY PCPN TYPES IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CHURNS ACROSS THE
REGION. PERIODS OF -SN/IP/FZRA WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE...AND THUS
WHERE THE GREATER THREAT FOR WHICH PTYPE WILL LIE.

DEFINITELY A SYSTEM THAT BEARS A CLOSE WATCH AS IT COULD/WOULD
HAVE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
413 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

406 AM MST SAT JAN 26 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 26/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND KRWL EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KRWL BUT SOME LOWER CIGS IN
THE AREA THROUGH 18Z. ALL OTHER AERODROMES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM MST SAT JAN 26 2013/

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
AT 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA
AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND ON SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
SHORT WAVE OBSERVED AT BOTH 5/7H CROSSING WYOMING. TWO SEPARATE
SYSTEMS ANALYZED ONE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH HEIGHT FALLS
GREATER THAN 50 METERS MOVING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN U.S. THE SYSTEM WHICH INITIALLY WILL BE MORE OF AN
INTEREST TO OUR CWA WILL BE SOUTHERN ONE WHICH WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE AREA AND ADVECT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PATTERN HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA
OF DECENT CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CWA. TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE OBSERVED.

BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE
SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS.

OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A UPPER LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
SETTLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. QPFS SHOW MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION PREVAILING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH AND LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. EXPECT ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO MID 50S FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WITH
20S AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CWA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE TEENS AND 20S ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MEAN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. ONE WILL
IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY ANOTHER FRIDAY. MODELS DEPICT LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
IN THESE AREAS...WHILE THE PLAINS CONTINUE DRY. AFTER A SEASONABLY
COOL WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AREAS
OUT WEST WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH DAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...SOME LOWER CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY AND THE HRRR HINTS THAT SOME OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE RAWLINS AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AERODROMES.

FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WARM
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...GRIFFITH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

303 AM MST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
AT 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA
AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND ON SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A UPPER LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
SETTLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. QPFS SHOW MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION PREVAILING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH AND LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. EXPECT ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO MID 50S FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WITH
20S AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CWA TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE TEENS AND 20S ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.

.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...SOME LOWER CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED
EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY AND THE HRRR HINTS
THAT SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE RAWLINS AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AERODROMES.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WARM
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GRIFFITH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1025 PM MST FRI JAN 25 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...

HAVE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED OUT BY RAWLINS LATE THIS
EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING RAWLINS DROPPING TO MVFR
AS EARLY AS 10Z...WHILE HRRR FORECAST SHOWING SOME IFR CONDITIONS
AROUND RAWLINS IN CARBON COUNTY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON IFR
HAPPENING OUT THAT WAY AS HRRR HAS A HARD TIME WITH RAWLINS. AS A
COMPROMISE...WENT WITH LOW MVFR CEILINGS OUT THAT WAY TOWARDS
11Z...PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

CLAYCOMB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM MST FRI JAN 25 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A LEE TROUGH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER AND THE SFC HIGH OVER
NORTHERN UTAH...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GET
A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH IN THE GAP AREAS OF ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX THROUGH THE EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF
LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO COLORADO BY TOMORROW AFTN. EVEN WITH THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND DYNAMICS REMAINING LARGELY OVER
COLORADO...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW VERY GOOD 700-500MB
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THUS...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR LIKELY POPS
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES WITH THE ADDITION OF
OROGRAPHICS IN THE MTNS. DUE TO THE WARM SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM...WET BULB ZERO PRESSURES ARE AROUND 775MB...SO COULD BE
A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON THE PLAINS IN WHATEVER PRECIP
AREAS THAT DEVELOP. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVES OFF INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OVER THE CWA. WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-2C...THE AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE HIGH END
CHANCE POPS IN THE MTNS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AT THAT TIME. ONE MORE MILD NIGHT FOR SUNDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED IS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS AND...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN COMPETING EXTENDED
MODELS. STARTING OFF MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TRACK OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND HOW FAST A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS SHOOTS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIME. EC ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEEN
HINTING AT A CLOSING AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BAJA MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT LOW POPS GOING
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD THE GFS VERIFY
MAINLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS WHILE THE EC SUGGEST A
DUSTING AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT LOWERING FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SHOT OF COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EVEN COLDER SHOULD SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FALL
IN THE PLAINS. MAIN SHOT OF COLD AIR SHOULD COME DOWN MONDAY WITH
COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE WARMING AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THE PLAINS MAY STRUGGLE TO
WARM AS QUICKLY. MAY BE VERY SIMILAR TO EARLIER THIS WEEK WHEN A
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS HELD IN PLACE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
COULD EASILY SEE A 20 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
CHEYENNE AND CHADRON COME THURSDAY.

AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...

VFR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAWLINS WHERE LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH LIGHT WINDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 35 PERCENT. A STORM
SYSTEM WITH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...LIEBL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

240 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD
TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AS OF
2AM. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING JUST AHEAD OF IT WITH BANDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT STILL MAINLY NORTH. NAM12 AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. CONSIDERING NARROW WINDOW WITH PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT THE
EVENING SHIFT INDICATED THIS WITH 3 HR INCREMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS.
WE TWEAKED THIS BASED ON 06Z NAM...HRRR TRENDS AND LATEST ECMWF
INPUT...BUT HAVE LARGELY KEPT THESE INTACT.

SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY NEAR 7-8K FEET WILL FALL QUICKLY WITH THE
FRONT TO 4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER
BY THEN THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. STILL UNABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES
EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT...1 TO 3 INCHES BETWEEN
5000 AND 7000 FEET...AND A LIGHT DUSTING TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET. WE`LL MONITOR PRECIP TRENDS CLOSELY TO VERIFY
THIS WHILE ALSO WATCHING FOR ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP THAT MAY
BRING LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS WHEN ADDED TO SATURDAY`S HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS.

GUSTY WINDS TODAY MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THERE AS WELL...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING
OUR MOST WIND PRONE EASTERN ZONE LOCATIONS WHICH ALSO HAPPEN TO BE
FAR ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN DURING
THE DAY...WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

CLEARING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD FREEZE WEST TO HARD
FREEZE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT NOTHING
UNUSUAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK ABOVE CLIMO THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND...TO START FEBRUARY WITH
RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC CLOUDS 5-8K FT AGL AND MTNS OBSCD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLD -SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SCT -SHRA AFTER
11Z MONDAY. SFC WINDS GENERALLY 8 TO 12 KTS THROUGH 14Z...THEN SWLY
10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOR EASTERN
COCHISE COUNTY WHERE GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY BUT WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

M/M

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

427 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...DEVELOPING IN-SITU WEDGE OVER AREA. LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. RUC SHOWS WEAK SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE SURFACE BASED WEDGE BRING
WARMER AIR ALOFT...THUS PROVIDING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS
MORNING. EXPECT MORNING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 40S.

THIS AFTERNOON...WEDGE WEAKENS. NOT SURE IT WILL COMPLETELY BREAK
DOWN BUT SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS TO ABOUT 10 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH SORT OF A BLEND BETWEEN MODEL DATA
AND THE MAX WEDGE TEMPERATURE TOOL.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED BY TONIGHT. IN THE ABSENCE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL GO WITH POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PULL MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. WILL INCREASE POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT INT HE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT UP IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS
WARM AIR TO REGION WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE
CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A LLJ AND UPPER LEVEL
JET AND PWAT VALUES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE JET SETUP AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP BEING OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z ON
THURSDAY SO LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE
FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GULF
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. STRONG CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL RETURN MAX TEMPS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST COAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUT
PRECIP REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WAS EXPECTED...BUT CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LOWER
THAN EXPECTED.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. THIS WEDGE-TYPE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
NAM INDICATES LLWS TOWARD MORNING...JUST BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
SOME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN
DETERIORATE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD RETURNING TO IFR/MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE REST OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BECAUSE OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING THUNDER...
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

151 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEVELOPING IN-SITU WEDGE OVER AREA. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
THE NORTH HAS CAUSED SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. GENERALLY...MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ONLY WEAK
FORCING ABOVE WEDGE BUT RUC13 BRINGS WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING TO COINCIDE WITH LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEDGE IS PRESENTING A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR MONDAY. RUC13 HAS
A STRONGER BUT STILL WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDING ACROSS UPPER RIDGE BY
THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WITH CLOUD
COVER AND EXPECTED WEDGE CONDITIONS. DID SORT OF A MODEL BLEND
WITH WEDGE HIGH TEMPERATURE TOOL AND MODEL DATA. THIS GAVE HIGHS
AROUND 50 FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE AND FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY TEMPS WILL WARM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM
EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE CWA WILL
BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A LLJ AND UPPER LEVEL JET AND
PWAT VALUES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE JET SETUP AND TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP BEING OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z ON THURSDAY SO
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE
OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GULF WILL DOMINATE
THE PATTERN. STRONG CAA ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
RETURN MAX TEMPS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUT PRECIP REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THIS WEDGE-TYPE
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL DRYNESS
BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDINESS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE
09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORTS MVFR
CEILINGS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUGGEST STRATUS IS FAVORED OVER FOG.
THE NAM INDICATES LLWS JUST BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE REST OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BECAUSE OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING THUNDER...ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

120 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH
NEAR BOUNDARY AREA NOT EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...EXPECT
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND WINDS DECREASE.
HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN SOME COUNTIES MAY BE PATCHY.
IN ADDITION...ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING...COULD SEE REFREEZING OF ROADWAYS OR FOG DEPOSITS ON
ROADWAYS CREATING DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...28/06Z
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 500 FEET AND VIS WILL BOUNCE
AROUND BELOW 1SM. CURRENT DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END BY AROUND 08Z
AT ALO/OTM...AND A BIT SOONER AT DSM. CIGS/VIS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT ANTICIPATED TO
REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PAST 00Z
TUESDAY.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL IOWA.

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
UPDATE...AWB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1155 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL IOWA EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

253 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 11
AM MST MONDAY MORNING.

ASOS/AWOS SITES REPORTING VISIBILITIES FROM 1/4SM AT KHLC TO 2.5SM
AT KCBK. LATEST 03Z RUC/HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODEL ALL AGREE THAT
THE DENSE FOG ALONG OUR FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF THE FOG ALTHOUGH
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
TOWARD SUNRISE AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BECOME A
PERSISTENT FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEAR MINIMAL. THE
ONLY CHANCE WOULD BE ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA SO HAVE
MADE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...NO PRECIPITATION IS MENTIONED.

THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONCERNS THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT LINGERS. THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE GRADIENT
LOCATION BETWEEN THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS
IS COOLER THAN THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION BY 7 TO 8 DEGREES AS A
RESULT. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
AS ALL MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WARMING. MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH GUIDANCE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY. THE GENERAL PATTERN THAT MODELS ARE PROJECTING
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE WARM SCENARIO THAT PLAYED OUT LAST WEEK.
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS A RESULT OF LAST WEEKS
WEATHER AND CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP TO 10 DEGREES
CELSIUS FOR SUNDAY...SO HAVE MADE SUNDAY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 60 FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

FOR KGLD...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE MORNING MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE 17G27KT RANGE BY
17Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
WIND AROUND 00Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 04Z WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE. FIRST IMPACT TO AN OTHERWISE VFR
FORECAST IS STRATUS/FOG THAT IS FORECAST TO BACK IN TOWARD THE
TERMINAL IN THE 12Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE MODELS GENERALLY DONT
GO FAR ENOUGH WEST WITH THE MOISTURE HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR VIS
AROUND 4SM. NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WHERE CIGS AROUND 1500FT
EXPECTED.

FOR KMCK...CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS WITH VIS AROUND 4SM IN
MIST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
IFR/VLIFR BY 10Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z OR SO IN FG WITH VIS
AROUND 1/4 MILE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 16Z
ONLY TO FALL BACK INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AFTER 02Z AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ080-081.

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

328 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...DENSE FOG TRENDS THIS MORNING THEN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TODAY-TUESDAY
COMBO OF RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST RUC WOULD SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE REALIZED JUST NORTH OF WICHITA AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS MOIST ADVECTION WITH FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH
DURING THE MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS. OTHERWISE NEAR RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WICHITA/CHANUTE AND SALINA POSSIBLY SETTING NEW RECORDS FOR THE
DATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THIS EVENING WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
WILL ALSO INCREASE. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THOUGH LATEST FRONTAL
TIMING WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SOME LIGHT POST-FRONTAL PRECIP
IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH
GENERALLY TRACE SPRINKLES TO FLURRIES.

WEDNESDAY
BACK TO SEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID-WEEK AS THE MEAN UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE CHILLY AIR ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH GRADUAL TEMPERATURE MODERATION
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

DARMOFAL

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CIGS IN THE 1,000-1,500FT RANGE HAVE COVERED ALL OF E & SE KS
THIS EVE. AT 04Z...THESE CIGS ARE SPREADING SLOWLY W/SW TOWARD
CNTRL & SC KS. AS A WELL-DEFINED NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS
MEANDERING ALONG & JUST NW OF THE TURNPIKE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS...MUCH WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CNTRL KS. KSLN & KRSL WILL EXPERIENCE VLIFR CIGS & VSBYS ~10-15Z
WITH REMAINING TERMINALS IN IFR STATUS THESE PERIODS. WITH A SFC
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SE WY/NE CO STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT
MOVES S ACROSS ERN CO...S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE & WOULD QUICKLY
SCOUR STRATUS & FOG FROM THESE AREAS ~15Z WITH KCNU CLEARING ~21Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 73 48 57 24 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 73 43 52 23 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 72 46 54 23 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 71 50 58 26 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 74 52 63 27 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 69 35 43 20 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 71 37 44 20 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 70 40 47 22 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 72 42 50 22 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 73 59 66 32 / 10 30 60 10
CHANUTE 73 57 63 28 / 10 30 50 10
IOLA 73 57 63 28 / 10 30 50 10
PARSONS-KPPF 73 58 65 30 / 10 30 60 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068-082.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

322 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UNITED STATES TODAY, AS A SHARP AMPLIFYING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
HELPED TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE BY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A 850-700 MB TROUGH WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
HIGH PLAINS REGION OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. VERY WARM AIR ON THE
ORDER OF +12 TO +15 DEGREES C WAS BEING PULLED NORTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
CONTRIBUTED TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST IS HOW FAR SOUTHWEST WILL ANY
DENSE FOG DEVELOP.

THE SITES OF HLC, RSL, ICT, AND MCK HAVE ALL ALREADY BEEN DOWN TO
1/4SM IN DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. HYS HAS FLIRTED WITH 1SM AND GBD
IS DOWN TO 3SM AT 08Z. THE RUC AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
STRONG WITH FORECASTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE FROM NEAR
SCOTT CITY DOWN TO PRATT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA, UNTIL ABOUT 17Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL ABOUT 17Z, THEN WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH IN THE NPW
AREA. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG RAPIDLY. AS WINDS IN OUR
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA, NEAR ELKHART, GCK AND DDC, BECOME EVEN
STRONGER BY 18Z, IN THE 20G30MPH RANGE, STRONG WARM AIR WILL MIX
DOWN. AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN A LOW LEVEL JET WAS OVER US,
TODAY THE WARM AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE. AT 850MB, THE DDC TEMP AT
00Z WAS 3C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, AND WAS AT +13C. A SWATH OF
+14C AIR WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER. THUS, I THINK HIGHS WILL REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, WHERE A RECORD HIGH WAS SET
AT P28 AT 74F. THE AREAS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL
HAVE A DELAYED PERIOD FOR HEATING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS
MORNING, SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

AS FOR TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT, THEN WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 MPH. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SWITCH
WINDS TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH, FIRST IN THE SCOTT CITY AREA
AND A LITTLE LATER IN THE GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AREAS. COOL
AIR WILL DROP INTO THE AREA NORTHWEST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY
TO LA CROSSE LINE LATE TONIGHT. MINIMUMS THERE WILL AVERAGE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL NOT REACH
THE PRATT, MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREAS PRIOR TO 12Z
TUESDAY, SO MINIMUMS IN THOSE AREAS WILL STAY ELEVATED IN THE MID
40S. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT, BUT
SHOULD NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR INCREASED LIFT NEAR THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY WILL KEEP A VAST POOL OF
GULF MOISTURE BLOCKED OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM EAST
TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI. THIS WILL HINDER PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY. STILL, STRONG FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT COMBINED WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT
A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KICKS OFF TO THE EAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING H85
TEMPERATURES TO JUST BELOW 0C AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS IT PERTAINS TO THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE, IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL BE REACHED BY MID TO
LATE MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE HIGHS ARE REACHED IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AGAIN, TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY, BUT LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE
40S(F) WITH THE LOWER TO MID 50S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COLD WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH H85
TEMPERATURES NEARING 10C BELOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE GEM, GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
0C IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER TO
MID 40S(F) EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, SOME
DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS, PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS,
ARE LIKELY IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z THIS
MORNING. AT KGCK AND KDDC, FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AS DENSE, ONLY
IN THE 3SM TO 4SM BR MVFR CATEGORY. AFTER SUNRISE, THE FOG WILL
BURN OFF AND A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AFTER 18Z,
A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS IN THE 18G26KT RANGE AT
ALL TAF SITES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 33 43 21 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 71 30 42 20 / 0 0 20 10
EHA 69 32 41 21 / 0 0 20 10
LBL 71 32 43 22 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 68 32 43 20 / 0 10 10 10
P28 75 44 55 24 / 0 0 10 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-064>066-079-081.

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1026 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 11
AM MST MONDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF THE FOG ALTHOUGH
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
TOWARD SUNRISE AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ080-081.

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1002 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

OTHERWISE SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF THE FOG ALTHOUGH
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
TOWARD SUNRISE AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1231 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THE RAIN NOW IS MOVING
ACROSS AN AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM PIKEVILLE TO JACKSON TO STANTON.
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BY WHICH TIME MOST OR ALL OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NIGHT. THE NEXT SHOT
OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA BETWEEN 17 AND 18Z TOMORROW...WITH
THE TAF SITES SEEING ACCUMULATING RAIN BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAFS SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WELL...BEFORE THE LOWER CLOUDS BREAKUP A BIT...GIVING WAY TO
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 10K. A FEW TO SCATTERED LOW AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DRIFT ACROSS THE SKIES NEAR THE OR AT
THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SHOT OF RAIN WILL BRING BORDERLINE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT
AS WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...FOG FORMATION WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN AFTER THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

206 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...

CANCELLED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AND REPLACED IT WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MAY HAVE TO
INCLUDE MORE OF THE CWA IF CONDITIONS WORSEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

NOT MUCH PRECIP REMAINING...BUT FOG WILL BE A CONCERN COME MORNING
AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN MN. DENSE FOG WITH
1/4SM OR LESS HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS. KAXN/KRWF AND EVEN KSTC SHOULD SEE LIFR VIS BY
SUNRISE...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED IFR FOG IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI...BUT DIDN`T GO 1/4SM YET. WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
EXPECTED TO FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. REGARDLESS...SHOULD BE IFR ALL DAY AND NIGHT.

KMSP...

STILL POTENTIAL FOR 1/4SM DENSE FOG AT SOME POINT LATE IN THE
MORNING...BUT PLAYED IT A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AT THE AIRPORT FOR
NOW. HOWEVER...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR ALL DAY...BUT THERE
SHOULDN`T BE ANY NEW PRECIP UNTIL THIS EVENING. PRECIP COULD
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS THE LAST HALF OF THE EVENING COMMUTE...BUT MORE
LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE EVENING AND COME IN AS A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...MVFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON.
CHC -SN IN THE MORNING. NW WIND 5-10KT.
WED...MVFR CIGS. NW WIND 15G25KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI
PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-SIBLEY-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-WATONWAN-
YELLOW MEDICINE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-RAMSEY-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-
TODD-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST.
CROIX.

RAH/MPG/CLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1225 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...MVFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON.
CHC -SN IN THE MORNING. NW WIND 5-10KT.
WED...MVFR CIGS. NW WIND 15G25KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE
LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-
SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

MPG/CLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

352 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...

Unseasonable warmth and copious moisture has overspread the region
this morning. This will set the stage for some potentially active
weather tonight and Tuesday as a strong system interacts with this
warm airmass.

For today, frontal boundary is settling southward to near a Kansas
City to Kirksville line where it will begin to stall through the
morning. Cold air behind the front and copious low-level moisture
have led to widespread dense fog over the northwest forecast area
where a dense fog advisory has been issued through noon. How soon the
fog will lift is still in question, so decided to play it
liberally and take the advisory as late as noon to give the
airmass plenty of time to start mixing as the frontal boundary lifts
north through the day.

Temperatures today could approach or exceed record territory for
Kansas City (record high is 65 set in 1917), but a lot depends on
when or if the widespread stratus deck in place can start to mix out.
This deck looks quite thick and latest NAM and RAP models indicate it
could hang around all day long for most of the forecast area. See no
reason to go against these models, so kept skies cloudy through the
day and as a result nudged temperatures down a few degrees area-wide.
Still, with the southern half of the KC metro still sitting at 61
degrees at 3 AM and parts of northern Oklahoma in the middle 60s,
simple warm air advection alone should be able to send areas south of
the Highway 36 corridor into the middle and upper 60s this afternoon
despite widespread cloud cover. Areas further north are likely to see
fog, low clouds and drizzle stick around for much of the afternoon
until the front lifts through, so took temperatures down several
degrees for these areas.

Forecast gets interesting tonight and Tuesday as a strong upper
trough deepens across the Central Plains and moves into this
unseasonably warm airmass. This is likely to result in widespread
showers and thunderstorms developing along a cold front that will
move through the forecast area early Tuesday. However, there could be
some scattered convection developing ahead of the front as early as
midnight tonight over parts of the forecast area as hinted at by
nearly every model. With the front and upper trough still west of the
area tonight, large-scale ascent will be quite limited with forcing
mainly coming from broad and weak low-level convergence and
isentropic ascent. However, models are suggesting weak yet almost
uninhibited surface-based instability developing across the western
and southern forecast area overnight. This combined with very high
low-level shear and very low LCL heights could favor a damaging wind
and/or tornado risk with any storms that do develop. Will keep an
eye on this overnight, but for now expect the overall severe threat
to stay low until the arrival of the cold front can provide
persistent forcing for any organized convection given the high
shear/low instby combo.

Most models have slowed down the arrival of Tuesday`s cold front, now
poised to enter northwest Missouri around 12Z, reaching the I-35
corridor around 18Z and the southeast CWA border around 00Z. Expect
one or more lines of convection to develop near and ahead of the
front which could develop as early as 12Z over the northwest CWA
Tuesday morning. Instability will remain rather weak (<1000 J/kg)
but continued strong low-level shear will favor thin convective lines
capable of small bows and possible low-level rotation and tornadoes
as far west as I-35 Tuesday morning, moving into central MO through
the afternoon.

Finally, as the front pushes into eastern MO Tuesday night and
Wednesday, a few models are suggesting a weak wave riding up the
boundary in response to a vort max rounding the base of the large
upper trough. Such a feature could produce light rain/snow across the
eastern forecast area with the potential for accumulating snow
looking low at this time.

Hawblitzel

Medium Range (Thursday through Monday):

Little change in reasoning to current extended forecast period with
this issuance. Another shot of cold air is projected to enter the
region on Thursday as an upper wave on the backside of the eastern
CONUS longwave trough dives into the Ohio Valley. The cold air will
remain in place through Friday as surface high pressure moves across
the area. Temperatures will be below normal Thursday into Friday,
with highs on Thursday only reaching the 20s to lower 30s. The
coldest air of the forecast period is anticipated on Thursday night
into Friday morning upon clear skies and light winds, with low
temperatures in the single digits and teens. Surface high pressure
moves off to the east on Friday night with northwest flow aloft
persisting through the remainder of the forecast. A gradual
moderation of temperatures and dry weather is anticipated during
this period. The overall pattern suggested by operational guidance
shows an upper ridge developing over the western CONUS by the end of
the weekend, but confidence is not particularly high on the details
of the evolution of large-scale features and likewise temperatures
by the end of the period.

Blair

.AVIATION...

For the 06Z TAFs: MVFR stratus continues to expand throughout eastern
Kansas and northern Missouri tonight and will remain entrenched
through at least mid-day Monday. Models in general have backed off on
the development of very low LIFR visibility and ceilings around
daybreak. However, still feel the development of IFR ceilings will be
likely after 09z as a frontal boundary drops into northern Missouri.

Expecting stratus to remain in place along and north of the
aforementioned front through early afternoon before erosion rapidly
begins in southeastern Kansas and spreads northeast. Ceilings should
quickly scatter or lift by 21Z as warm air pours northward. VFR
conditions should prevail Monday evening in most locations, as a warm
front lifts well into Iowa. Low confidence at this stage and haven`t
included in current TAF, but scattered showers or even thunder may
develop Monday evening.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>003-011.

KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1115 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG SHOULD SPREAD INTO KLBF BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER
WEST. NO FOG EXPECTED FOR KVTN. THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW WITH THE
MOON VISIBLE SO BURN OFF SHOULD COMMENCE BY 15Z WITH VFR RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING. THE HIGH PLAINS COLD FRONT IS THROUGH KRAP AND SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH. BEST GUESS FOR IFR/MVFR WOULD BE 15Z ACROSS
NRN NEB AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE AFTN.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS MONDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CNTL/NRN PLAINS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS FILLING INTO HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES SO THIS AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CUSTER...GARFIELD AND WHEELER
COUNTIES SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WILL BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY AS WARRANTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ007-010-028-029-
038.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1022 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

.UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS FILLING INTO HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES SO THIS AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013/

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ007-010-028-029-
038.

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

206 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARMUP WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF
MIXED SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET BEFORE CHANGING TO
ALL RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY. WARM AND RAINY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 145 AM...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS NEW
YORK THIS MORNING. AT 1 AM THE 05Z RAP 925MB 0C ISOTHERM WAS
ENTERING CROSSING THE BORDER FROM NORTHWEST PA INTO CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
WITH ZR ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN KERI. BUFFALO RADAR REFLECTIVITY
SHOWING SNOW IS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.
STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS SNOW THEN AS WARM AIR
INCREASES ALOFT A CHANGE TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR. A
PEEK AT THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT PRODUCT ON THE DUAL-POL
INDICATED SLEET ALREADY MIXING IN NEAR SALAMANCA AND OLEAN AS CC
VALUES WERE RUNNING BETWEEN 0.85 AND 0.95 INDICATING HYDROMETEORS
BECOMING MIS-SHAPED...ICING OCCURRING.

THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING FORCED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS PA AND ALONG A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER INDIANA.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE ABOUT A 3 TO 5
HOUR PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE LONGEST DURATION OF PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. IT PROBABLY SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT EVEN AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...THE
RECENT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND COLD GROUND MAY STILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON SURFACES.

MODEL QPF NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT WITH NEARLY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER END
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL HOLD TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED FREEZING
PRECIPITATION ON TOP OF THE INITIAL MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AS THE INITIAL WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SWATH OF
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION SLIDES OFF INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CONTINUED WARMING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL LIQUID...THOUGH
ANY ICING WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH GIVEN THE
OVERALL LIGHTENING/DIMINISHING TREND OF THE PRECIP. SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION TO FALL ENTIRELY IN THE FORM OF PLAIN LIQUID SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRONG DRYING ALOFT PROBABLY RESULTING IN ALL OF
THIS DEVOLVING INTO AREAS OF LEFTOVER SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND OR
DRIZZLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET ANY NOCTURNAL COOLING...RESULTING IN
TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE READINGS EAST OF THE LAKE MORE ONLY MORE SLOWLY
RISE OR REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING...THE REMNANTS OF
MONDAY`S WARM FRONT...LINGERING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE DURING THE
MORNING. COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD
TO SOME MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...
FOR WHICH CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY. AFTER THAT TIME...ANOTHER
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...BRINGING
MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SURGES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY. IN THE FORECAST...HAVE REFLECTED THIS WITH A RETURN TO
LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A RELATIVE LULL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO OUR
NORTH. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THE CONTINUED STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...WHILE READINGS
EAST OF THE LAKE SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. AS WILL BE THE
CASE WITH MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO AGAIN REMAIN RELATIVELY
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW TO OUR WEST WILL LIFT OUT INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND SWING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONVERGING ON A GENERAL
AFTERNOON TIMING TO THE FROPA. IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE 50S IN THE MORNING...BEFORE STARTING TO DROP OFF
AS ONE OR MORE BANDS OF PREFRONTAL/FRONTAL SHOWERS WORK ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THEN FALL MORE QUICKLY AS COLD ADVECTION BEGINS
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS SAID...WE STILL EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THE PRECIP TO FALL IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MIXING WITH AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AS IT TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WIND CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/GEM HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS A MUCH
STRONGER MAIN LOW CENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS...WITH ALL OF
THESE SOLUTIONS DEEPENING THE LOW TO 975 MB AS IT WORKS INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE MORE CONSISTENT AND
USUALLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF REMAINS WEAKER WITH A MUCH MORE
ELONGATED LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A CONSEQUENCE...
THE STRONGER MODELS ALSO HAVE A MUCH STRONGER WIND FIELD SURROUNDING
THE LOW...WITH THE NAM/GFS RESPECTIVELY FORECASTING 90+/80+ KT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... WITH THE GFS THEN ALSO HANGING BACK SOME OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WERE THESE STRONGER SOLUTIONS TO VERIFY...
THEY WOULD POSE A THREAT OF STRONG WINDS IN BOTH TYPICALLY FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIONS AND AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH THE GFS THEN ALSO SUGGESTING AT LEAST A SMALL
WINDOW FOR SOME MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD
FROPA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL NOT MENTION THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE MODEL
CYCLE`S WORTH OF STRONGER SOLUTIONS...AND IN ONLY SOME OF THE MODELS
AT THAT...HOWEVER THIS POSSIBILITY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT...THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TUMBLING BACK TO WELL BELOW
AVERAGE AS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR FLOODS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WHILE THE INCOMING COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE NEARLY
QUITE AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF LAST
WEEK...850 MB TEMPS STILL LOOK TO DROP TO THE VICINITY OF -18C TO
-20C...WHICH WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS
FALLING BACK TO AROUND 20 BY FRIDAY...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DEFINITIVELY PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHICH
AREAS THE LAKE SNOWS MIGHT FOCUS ON...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN A WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE
INTENSIFYING OVER TIME THURSDAY AS AN INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS MOISTENS
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH. AFTER THAT
TIME...SOME DISAGREEMENT EMERGES WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW GOING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...
WHILE THE GFS ESSENTIALLY WASHES OUT THE TROUGH AND KEEPS MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...ALL OF THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST AND
MOST ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS INITIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN EITHER LINGERING PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...OR SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE DEPENDING UPON WHETHER THERE ACTUALLY IS A SECONDARY
TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT. SIMILARLY...THE LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN EITHER REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY OR MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.

CONSIDERING THE ABOVE...WILL INDICATE SOME BROAD AREAS OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF THE LAKES ON THURSDAY...THEN EXPAND
THESE TO COVER AREAS BOTH EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION
AND RESULTANT BAND PLACEMENT DURING THESE TWO PERIODS. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL POP VALUES...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW LIKELY WITHIN THE MORE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS ON THURSDAY GIVEN CONTINUED GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BEFORE DROPPING THESE BACK TO
HIGH CHANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASING
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. OUTSIDE OF THE MORE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCE POPS IN PLAY BOTH TO COVER
THE APPROACH AND POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...
AND TO ALSO REFLECT THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN DELINEATING SPECIFIC
AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT THIS FAR OUT.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO EVEN CONSIDER ANY
FLAGS FOR THIS PERIOD JUST YET...THOUGH GIVEN THE CONSISTENTLY
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SEEN IN THE
GUIDANCE IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD...WILL ELECT TO ADD AN
INITIAL MENTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL TO THE HWO.

LATER ON IN THE PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A
DECENT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH
AND WORK INTO OUR REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN EXIT TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A MORE GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WHILE
ALSO INFLUENCING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...WHICH
IN TURN WILL IMPACT THE ULTIMATE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF ANY LAKE
SNOWS. GIVEN THE DISTANT DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME AND THE TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE AND
ITS EXACT INFLUENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...FOR NOW HAVE JUST
TRENDED POPS BACK TO THE BROADBRUSH LOW-MID CHANCE RANGE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING EARLY MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT OVERSPREADING OUR SUB-FREEZING AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF MIXED WINTRY OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. AT 07Z KERI REPORTING FZRA AND BUFFALO RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING SLEET AND SNOW PUSHING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE PRIME THREAT TIME FOR THIS WINTRY MIX AT KJHW/KBUF/KIAG WILL BE
FROM 06Z-12Z AND FOR KROC FROM 10Z-18Z PLUS/MINUS. BEYOND THESE TIME
FRAMES...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARM ENOUGH DOWN TO THE SURFACE
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN. EXPECT THE LIQUID PRECIP TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON 18Z-20Z AND TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT FOG...LOWERING TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY KART.
RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY DAYLIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN LAKE SHORES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT EXPECT THESE TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE UPCOMING STRONG WARMUP...NORMALLY ONE WOULD EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE JAMS ON AREA CREEKS GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR.
THIS SAID...THIS WINTER HAS BEEN RELATIVELY MILD MUCH OF THE TIME...
WITH THE BULK OF ANY ICE FORMATION ON CREEKS LIKELY COMING DURING
OUR STRONG COLD SPELL OF THE PAST WEEK...WITH ANY ICE PROBABLY NOT
YET REACHING THICKNESSES THAT WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM
THREAT. THUS...WHILE THESE CANNOT BE AT ALL RULED OUT...AT THIS
POINT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE A STRONG THREAT OF ICE JAMS AND RESULTANT
FLOODING ISSUES DURING THE UPCOMING WARMUP.

WITH ICE JAMS LIKELY NOT A HUGE CONCERN...AT THIS POINT ANY HYDRO
ISSUES THIS WEEK WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO INSTEAD BE DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. WITH OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOKING TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
/GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER
EVERY 12 HOURS/...FEEL THAT ANY HYDRO CONCERNS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MINIMAL THROUGH THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HYDRO ISSUES DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ005>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ003-004-013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH
HYDROLOGY...JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

338 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RIDE ATOP A LINGERING RIDGE
OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REACH THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTENDED TO INCLUDE COUNTIES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THROUGH 9AM...

HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BASED ON THE FACT THAT BOTH CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND WET
BULB TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN THIS AREA...ALONG THE
AXIS OF THE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE...AND SINCE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE RAP/RUC MODEL SHOW THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TRIAD WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA IMPACTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 9 AM.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SET UP OVER THE
TIDEWATER VIRGINIA REGION. THIS HIGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
FURTHER WEST HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW
REFLECTIVITIES SPLITTING WITH ONE AREA MOVING SWIFTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH ANOTHER BAND TO THE SOUTH. THE
OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS VERY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT DUE
TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WEST
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP. WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY BE
LIKELY...FREEZING RAIN IS NOT AS LIKELY UNLESS ENOUGH WETBULBING
OCCURS TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO FREEZING. FURTHER TO THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY ACHIEVED THE FREEZING MARK BUT AS
THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG WITH IT WILL COME THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RISE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE NORTHEAST BECAUSE
EVEN IF TEMPERATURES RISE BACK ABOVE FREEZING...ONCE PRECIPITATION
STARTS WETBULBING SHOULD BRING IT BACK DOWN. WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR TWO MAXIMUM. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK FROM WEST TO
EAST OR PERHAPS CANCELLED ALL TOGETHER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
CURRENT RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MANY SITES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IN TIME TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THOSE LOWER TEMPERATURES REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT PATCHY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BOTTOMED OUT IN MOST CASES MID TO
UPPER 20S EAST AND LOWER 30S WEST.

ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING WITH A
SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST FOR
MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. COMBINING THIS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID 1300S SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON MONDAY...MID 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY ON MONDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN MOST LIKELY TO
IFR/LIFR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HINTING AT THIS PROBABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY: ON TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WHICH
WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS THE DAY GOES ON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
DRAMATICALLY HIGHER ON TUESDAY WITH MID 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 IN
THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IF NOT OVERCAST.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY.-ELLIS

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT: A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE IN
TRANSITION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH ALOFT COMPRISED OF S/W ENERGY MIGRATES FROM THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE...ONE FED BY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GOM --
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR 2-3
SIGMAS ABOVE AVERAGE -- THROUGH CENTRAL NC WED EVENING. WARM AND
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST TO MIDDLE 70S EAST.

WIDESPREAD SOAKING SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH...HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED BY THE LIFTING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT. WHILE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK TO ABSENT...SO
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NEED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AND
CONCENTRATED TO SUPPORT A STRONGLY FORCED/SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE
ALONG THE FRONT. EVEN IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR...THE CONVECTIVE LINE
WOULD BE DEVOID OF LIGHTNING...SO THUNDER WILL BE KEPT OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...MOMENTUM TRANSPORT FROM BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40-60 KT WIND GUSTS. ANY TORNADIC
POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW..DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...OWING TO
EH LACK OF INSTABILITY. HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE
SHOWERS BY ABOUT SIX HOURS IN THE GRIDDED/TEXT FORECAST...CENTERED
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES THU ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OF WED. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL HEAD
TOWARD OUR REGION FRI-SAT...LED SOUTHEASTWARD BY A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRI. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND SATURATION TO GENERATE SNOW FROM THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT NORTHWARD THROUGH VA...BUT A DEEP AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY VIRGA OR A FEW
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 FRI MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY LATER THAN EARLIER PROJECTIONS. OPPOSED BY
STRONG CAA AND A BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON FRI...TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...TO UPPER
40S TOWARD THE SC LINE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD
BY SAT MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE LIKELY...HINDERED ONLY BY CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1370 METERS SAT MORNING SUGGEST LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON SAT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER-TYPE LOW WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT...BEFORE
DEEPENING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUN. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
IS ACCORDINGLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR UPWIND OF THE NC BLUE RIDGE...AND
NORTH OF THE VA STATE LINE.

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS COMBINED WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD GIVE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KINT AND
KGSO COULD GET SOME LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 6 AND 8Z...CLOUD COVER HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. IN ADDITION THE HEAVIER RETURNS ON
THE RADAR HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE SOUTH OF KINT AND KGSO AND THEREFORE
ONLY A THIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH WILL CROSS
THE AREA...MOST LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FURTHER
EAST WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DIPPED TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK WITH KRDU AND KFAY ON THE VERGE OF
FREEZING AND KRWI ALREADY REPORTING 26 DEGREES. WITH RETURNS MOVING
TO THE SOUTH...THERE IS A GROWING CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AT
KFAY...BUT THE ONSET OF OVERCAST SKIES HAS ELEVATED THE TEMPERATURE
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SAME IS TRUE FOR KRDU. WILL COVER ALL
FREEZING RAIN WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAF AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF
KRWI AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF WEAKENING RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CEILING GRADUALLY COMING DOWN
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS LIKELY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD:

FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY
MORNING. ADVERSE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ON FRIDAY...NORTHERN SITES MAY
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

332 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTENDED TO INCLUDE COUNTIES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THROUGH 9AM...

HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BASED ON THE FACT THAT CURRENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING AND SURFACE WETBULBS CONTINUE TO BE BELOW ZERO IN THIS
AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND CURRENT RUN OF THE RAP/RUC MODEL
SHOW AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ENTERING THE TRIAD TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA IMPACTING THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 AND 9AM.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MSLP GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NC WITH
THE GROWING CONTRAST BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND INCOMING COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
MILD PREFRONTAL LOWS... AND HAVE RAISED THEM SEVERAL DEGREES TO
54-61. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN
THE WEST WITH INCREASING PRECIP WATER TO OVER 1 INCH AND DEEPENING
MOIST UPGLIDE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

LOOKING AHEAD:

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

237 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RIDE ATOP A LINGERING RIDGE
OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REACH THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM FOR THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

LOOKING AHEAD:

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041.

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1223 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

LOOKING AHEAD:

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC12

1223 PM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

LOOKING AHEAD:

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1001 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THIS BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDERNEATH AN EXPANDING STRATUS DECK. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. THAT SAID...THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR SUGGEST VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS...WITH KABR AND KHON ALREADY AT THESE LEVELS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS SHOULD A ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY.

.AVIATION...

AS OF 04 UTC...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
KDIK/KISN AND THE KMOT/KBIS TERMINALS. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX
OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW. IFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES IN STRATUS...FOG AND SNOW CURRENTLY
IMPACTING KISN AND KDIK ARE FORECAST TO SOON IMPACT KMOT AND KBIS
BY 06-08 UTC. FOR KJMS...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1121 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE AREA...TRIGGERING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN INTO EARLY MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLE WARMUP ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MID-WEEK...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO WINTERLIKE TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EST SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS WILL AFFECT HIGHS SOMEWHAT BUT KEPT IN THE PIEDMONT WARM WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WEST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AS 8H TEMPS CRASH FROM
+10C WED AFTN TO -5 TO -8C LATE WED NIGHT.

MOISTURE STAYS IN THE WRN COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE SOME WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH MODELS ONLY SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 8H.

TEMPS WED NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 20S WEST TO UPPER 30S
EAST...ALTHOUGH MAY STAY WARMER IF SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND THE
CLOUDS/WIND DESPITE THE CAA KEEP TEMPS MORE ELEVATED LONGER.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1105 PM EST SUNDAY...

DRY AIR SLOWLY GIVING WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ATTM AS THE INITIAL
BATCH OF -RA/-FZRA MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD
ARRIVE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS BAND OF
PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY MOISTEN THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO ALLOW CIGS TO
LOWER TO LOW END VFR OR HIGH MVFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF -RA WILL
IMPACT KBLF IN THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN LIKELY SWITCH TO A MIX OF
-RA/-FZRA AS SURFACE TEMPS COOL. THE LIGHT MIX SHOULD ALSO WORK
INTO THE KLWB VICINITY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF -FZRA INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY.

OTRW THE UPSTREAM WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NW OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT PRECIP ARCING FAR ENOUGH SE TO CLIP MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED PTYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. KDAN
APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AND MAY MISS
OUT ON SEEING MUCH AT ALL. ELSW STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
MIX ROUGHLY IN THE 05Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME WITH THE MAJORITY
SWINGING THROUGH THE KLWB VICINITY...WITH LESS SOUTH OF A KLYH-
KROA- KBCB LINE EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS MAY NUDGE UP JUST
ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING TO CAUSE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBLF TO SWITCH
BACK TO JUST RAIN BEFORE TAPERING MID MORNING MONDAY AS WELL. OTRW
KEEPING IT MAINLY -FZRA FOR NOW. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD ALSO BE
LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER SO CANT RULE
OUT A PERIOD OF IFR AT KLWB...WHILE EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
MVFR LEVEL CLOUD BASES ELSW FOR NOW INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEHIND THE EXITING PRECIP MIDDAY
MONDAY BEFORE CIGS LOWER AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING AROUND THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF -RA/-SHRA AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE INCREASING SW FLOW APPEARS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR IN LOW CIGS AND PERHAPS A FEW LEFTOVER -SHRA MAINLY SE WVA
SITES MONDAY EVENING.

DRYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WILL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IMPROVED FLYING WEATHER AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH VFR/MVFR EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONT AND
ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AND GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE REGION MIDWEEK. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT COLD AIR INCLUDING WINDY
CONDITIONS AND UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS WITH -SHSN AT KBLF/KLWB WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN -SHSN ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS
ON FRIDAY.

DUE TO THE MISSING OBSERVATION FROM KBCB...INCLUDING AMD NOT SKED
FOR THE TAF FORECAST THERE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN UPCOMING CIGS AND
VSBYS AS PRECIP ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JH/MBS/NF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

345 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
344 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS:
1. DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
2. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY
3. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TONIGHT
4. POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
5. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT/TUESDAY
6. POSSIBLY ANOTHER INTERESTING SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY

CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S....WITH A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THIS RIDGING
STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN WI. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS THE ONE RESPONSIBLE
FOR BRINGING MUCH OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTH INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. STILL DEALING WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT
MUCH OF THIS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN.
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN DUE TO TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE. 00Z DVN AND OAX
SOUNDINGS ARE MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE RECENT PRECIPITATION INTO THE COOL AIRMASS THAT
PRE-EXISTED THE PRECIPITATION...COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW NOW IN NORTHEAST IOWA...HAS
RESULTED IN AN EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG FROM OMAHA NE NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
AREA...TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN UPPER 40S
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. FARTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE 50S ACROSS MISSOURI. NORTH OF THE LOW...TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. OTHER NOTES...A LARGE AREA OF
DRY AIR IS NOTED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
WATER VAPOR. DESPITE THIS UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...00Z PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLOT FROM SOUNDINGS SHOWED 0.7-1.1 INCH READINGS FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST NORTH TO THE FORECAST AREA...ANYWHERE FROM 200-330
PERCENT OF NORMAL. TO THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN FORMING OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. PRETTY POTENT
SHORTWAVE TOO AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

TODAY...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE WINTRY MIX YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BUILD IN TOO IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN
NORTHEAST IOWA. THUS...ANTICIPATING A DRY DAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE
FORECAST ISSUES...THOUGH. FIRST IS THE CLOUDS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS
IN THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS THAT THE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BREAK UP
SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CAUSE IS A COMBINATION OF
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DIURNAL MIXING. ALTHOUGH LIGHT
WINDS ARE A PROBLEM FOR MIXING OUT THE CLOUDS...FEEL THE
AFOREMENTIONED TWO REASONS SOUND REASONABLE TO MENTION SOME CLEARING
IN THE FORECAST. THIS PARTIAL CLEARING COMBINED WITH 925MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT 18Z IN THE -2C NORTH TO +2C SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH. THE
NEXT CONCERN IS THE MORNING FOG. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
COVER THE LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT MOISTURE...VALID TIL NOON. IT MAY
BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTHEAST. ASSUMING THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP AS PLANNED...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY END TIME OF NOON SHOULD
WORK OUT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ALL SHOW THAT THE POTENT SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IS GOING TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD...IN
RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NORTH CALIFORNIA THAT DROPS
SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TO
ABOUT EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY...IT BRINGS AND DEEPENS
THE SURFACE LOW WITH IT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH BOTH
FEATURES...WITH THE LOW NOW REACHING NEAR MASON CITY BY 12Z TUESDAY.
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MEANS A COUPLE OF THINGS:

1. MORE WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOW INDICATED BETWEEN 6-14C...
WHICH IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIP IN A LIQUID FORM IN
THE AIR. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ALSO SUPPORTING LIQUID. THUS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FREEZING OCCURS. THE PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
BRIEFLY DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN AND BRINGS TEMPS UP. IN FACT...THE WARMING IS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH BOTH THE 28.00Z CANADIAN AND 27.12Z ECMWF BRINGING
50S INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST...925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 285-295K LIFT INCREASE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALL MODELS HINT THAT
THIS WILL RESULT IN NOT ONLY CLOUDS RE-FORMING...BUT ALSO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE. SINCE MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...DRAMATICALLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ALSO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR ITEM NUMBER 3 BELOW.
3. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THERE ARE INDICATIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA OF SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. THE 28.00Z NAM HAS UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE LIFTED
FROM 900MB NEAR BOSCOBEL AT 09Z. THIS CAPE WAS NOTED YESTERDAY...BUT
OFF TO THE EAST OF US GIVEN THE FARTHER EAST LOW TRACK AT THE TIME.
NOW THAT THE LOW TRACK IS FARTHER WEST...THE INSTABILITY SHIFTS A
BIT WEST. THE 28.00Z UKMET/ECMWF ALSO HINT AT THE INSTABILITY...
MORESO THAN THE 28.00Z GFS. IN ANY EVENT...ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PROMISING SCENARIO FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO WITH THE CAPE GETTING
INGESTED INTO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CIRCULATION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TOO GIVEN THE FORCING...CAPE AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8000 FT. ALSO TO NOTE IS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AT 12Z TUESDAY...OR AROUND
1 INCH.
4. FOG...THE PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE EVENING COMBINED WITH MOISTURE
COMING BACK IN IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN. THE FOG MAY TRY TO CLEAR
OUT AS WARM AIR APPROACHES...BUT AT THE SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE
RISING.

TUESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 12Z IS PROGGED
TO LIFT UP INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH
EAU CLAIRE WI AND INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL END UP
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MEANS
HIGHS COULD VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST...AND
THAT WE SHOULD SEE A FALLING TEMPERATURE CURVE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. DRAMATICALLY INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE
FARTHER WEST TRACK...TOWARDS THE 28.00Z ECMWF. THE 28.00Z REGIONAL
CANADIAN IS REALLY IMPRESSIVE...A 63F HIGH FOR THE PLATTEVILLE AREA.
DID NOT GO THAT HIGH...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. REGARDING
PRECIPITATION...MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE
MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN DRY ADVECTION COMES IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TO END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THE COLD FRONT AND FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT. IN THE CASE OF
THE 28.00Z NAM/ECMWF...THEY STILL HAVE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THUS...HAVE
INCLUDED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING AGAIN. ALL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TONIGHT STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
IN THE CASE OF THE 28.00Z GFS/UKMET...THEY BRING THIS INTENSIFYING
SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM TUESDAYS SYSTEM. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO PLAY OUT...WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT A DEFORMATION BAND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IMPACTING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW WOULD
ACCOMPANY IT AS WELL GIVEN INTENSIFYING WINDS. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 28.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM KEEP THIS INTENSIFYING
SHORTWAVE TRACKING MORE EAST-NORTHEAST...CALL IT MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT VERSUS A NEUTRAL TILT OF THE GFS/UKMET. THESE MODELS
ALSO HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT...BUT BECAUSE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK/TILT...THERE REALLY IS NO DEFORMATION BAND AND OUR
AREA ENDS UP DRY. SINCE THERE ARE TWO PLAUSIBLE SITUATIONS...WILL
TRY TO COMPROMISE AND HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF SNOW IN FOR BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PERIOD REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND REALLY NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD END UP HAVING
COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
JUST KEEP ON FALLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHETHER A SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OR
NOT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DRY FORECAST AS THE AREA
LIES IN SUBSIDENCE BUT STILL GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT. THERE
WILL BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...DROPPING INTO MN BY 12Z. THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY UP
IN THE YUKON TERRITORY...THUS EXPECT A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH IT.
BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -16 TO -20C
OVER THE AREA...WITH -24C READINGS LURKING UP AROUND FARGO. THIS
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTING IN WILL HELP SEND LOWS DOWN INTO THE 5
BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
344 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

28.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND EVEN SURFACE PATTERNS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

DEEP TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA DOWN
INTO OUR AREA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AIDED BY THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO MN AT 12Z
THURSDAY. THOSE COLD 850MB TEMPS NEAR FARGO ND SLIDE INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DROP INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO
THERE IS GOING TO BE A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE THE ENTIRE TIME FROM
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO BE AN
ISSUE. ADVISORIES STILL LOOK LIKELY FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...DEPENDING ON IF THERE IS A SNOW PACK OR NOT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY...EVEN DESPITE THE
POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGHING IN GENERAL SHIFTS EAST...WHICH WILL
ALLOW 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. WE ARE
STILL PROGGED TO STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER. A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE
KEPT SOME CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES WITH IT. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN.

.AVIATION...
1045 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...MOSTLY
AT KLSE...AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO WORK ON THE LOW
SATURATION. FOG COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. SFC OBS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN IA POINT TO
1/2SM OR LOWER VSBYS FROM FG. THIS FOG LOOKS MORE LIKELY FOR
KRST...AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF IT BOTTOMED OUT AT 1/4SM. WILL
STICK WITH 1/2SM FOR NOW. DENSE FOG DOESN/T LOOK AS LIKELY AT
KLSE...BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AND UPDATES
MADE AS NEEDED.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT WE COULD BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CIGS INTO
SCT CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING /2-4 HOURS/. LOW STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN
THOUGH...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. PCPN WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE CLOUDS...AND TRENDS POINT TO DZ/FZDZ. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO IT COULD START AS FZDZ AND SWITCH
TO DZ OVERNIGHT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
344 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ041-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

647 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WAS EXPECTED...BUT CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LOWER
THAN EXPECTED. RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CSRA AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT THIS MORNING. THIS WEDGE-TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN TRIES TO SETTLE BACK TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE NAM INDICATES LLWS
TOWARD MORNING...BUT BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SOME DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN
DETERIORATE DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS RETURNING TO
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING TUESDAY MORNING
BECAUSE OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WEST OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING THUNDER...ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

738 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

1/4 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTED IN TRIBUNE...23SW OF GOODLAND...AND
BY COOP OBSERVERS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO. ADDED THOSE
COUNTIES TO THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE NUMEROUS FORECAST PROBLEMS TO ADDRESS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE SHOWING A COMPLICATED AND AMPLIFIED FLOW
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. RATHER STRONG/COLD AND
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
COOL AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS WITH THE JET SEGMENT THAT IS GETTING CLOSER TO US.
THAT OUTPUT WAS A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT
MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...THE MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...TO FAR NORTH AND
EAST. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE
RUC AND HRRR ARE CATCHING THE FOG WITH THE NAM NOT HAVING A CLUE
ABOUT IT LIKE LAST NIGHT. THE SREF IS DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD AND IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND
GFS.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST CONCERN WHICH THE EVENING SHIFT ALREADY
ADDRESSED HAS BEEN DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE CURRENT AREA OF THE ADVISORY BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. BIG KEYS ON
THE MAX TEMPERATURES IS HOW FAST THE STRATUS/FOG RETREATS/ENDS AND
WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO START MOVING IN THE NORTH. THE MODELS
ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT. RUC/HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATUS/FOG AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER COULD NOT
CLEAR UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF THAT IS THE CASE...THE
TEMPERATURES I HAVE UP THERE WILL BE TOO WARM. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE
COULD BE A HUGE GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES TODAY.

AND IF THAT IS NOT BAD ENOUGH...SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL START INCREASE IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. COMPARING THE
RUC/HRRR TO THE BETTER 850 MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT
60S OVER AREAS THAT GET A LOT OF SUN...MAYBE EVEN 70 DEGREE READING.
AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES AWAY AND SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
STRENGTHENS...GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ALONG WITH MODERATE 3
HOUR PRESSURE FALLS. SO OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IT
COULD GET BREEZY TO WINDY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. BY LATE EVENING THIS HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THIS JET LIFT IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND OTHER LIFT. AT THIS TIME ONLY EXPECT CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER THAT...ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...WITH RATHER COLD AIR
ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO START MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED. AM CONCERNED THIS SYSTEM IS COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN 00Z MODELS SHOWED DESPITE BEING AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVING
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. NEWER DATA COME IN WITH A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILE. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA
CAME IN WITH THE BEST MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT SETUP. SO
MADE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THERE DURING THE NIGHT. THE BEST
PARAMETERS DO NOT REALLY START COMING INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN
THE EVENING. GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES SUPPORT BREEZY TO
MAYBE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...TROUGH IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AT
12Z WITH A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY INDICATED WITH IT.
TROUGH/ANOMALY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY. DESPITE WHAT APPEARS NOT
THE BEST OF MOISTURE PROFILES...THE INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS ME CONCERNED ABOUT MEASURABLE SNOW/PRECIPITATION. SO
RAISED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE BUT COULD SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING HIGHER POPS. ALSO IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
MORE SNOW THAN I THINK...THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW DUE TO THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS COULD GET
CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MODELS ARE COMING IN COLDER AND MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. SO
REDUCED MAXES AND IF THE COLDER MODELS WORK OUT...I MAY BE TOO WARM.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WEAK JET LIFT AND A REINFORCING SHORT OF
COLD AIR COULD KEEP FLURRIES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO HOW COLD DOES IT REMAIN BEHIND
EXITING SYSTEM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER
ONCE THE TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. ALSO AN INDICATION THAT
THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED. SO LOWERED MAXES AGAIN.
AGAIN WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...FLURRIES
COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. THIS FLURRY ACTIVITY ENDS DURING THE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE STRATUS AND FOG FIELD VERY WELL. FOR
KGLD...IT LOOKS LIKE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF
THE SITE THIS MORNING. KGLD MAY GET SOME BRIEF CONDITIONS BEFORE
IMPROVING BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE AT KGLD...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA
BEGINNING AROUND 04Z. MAY BE SOME SNOW AROUND HOWEVER CHOSE TO
HANDLE WITH VCSH SINCE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LAST A FEW
HOURS BEYOND THIS BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS WHEN IT BECOMES
MORE CLEAR. STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO THE
AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

THE SOUTHWEST PORTION...ESPECIALLY FAR WESTERN CHEYENNE AND KIT
CARSON COULD REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT WITH
ADEQUATE WINDS NOT LASTING THREE HOURS. SO ISSUED NO HIGHLIGHT FOR
THIS. BUT DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

730 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

TRIBUNE IS SOCKED IN AT 1/4SM...SO ADDED GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

509 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 456 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE DENSE FOG AREA VERY WELL. CONSIDERING ITS
TRENDS AND WHAT I AM SEEING IN THE OBSERVATIONS...WILL BE ADDING
DUNDY TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. SOMETHING TO DAY UPDATE GUY WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER IS LOWERING MAXES IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
IF STRATUS AND FOG ARE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

600 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON
JAN 28 2013

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST IS HOW FAR SOUTHWEST WILL ANY
DENSE FOG DEVELOP.

THE SITES OF HLC, RSL, ICT, AND MCK HAVE ALL ALREADY BEEN DOWN TO
1/4SM IN DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. HYS HAS FLIRTED WITH 1SM AND GBD
IS DOWN TO 3SM AT 08Z. THE RUC AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
STRONG WITH FORECASTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE FROM NEAR
SCOTT CITY DOWN TO PRATT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA, UNTIL ABOUT 17Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL ABOUT 17Z, THEN WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH IN THE NPW
AREA. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG RAPIDLY. AS WINDS BECOME
STRONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 18Z, GENERALLY IN THE
20G30MPH RANGE, WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MIX DOWN.
AT 850MB, THE DDC TEMP AT 00Z WAS 3C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, AND
WAS AT +13C. A SWATH OF +14C AIR WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THUS, I THINK HIGHS WILL REACH
LEVELS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, WHERE A
RECORD HIGH WAS SET AT P28 AT 74F. THE AREAS IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL HAVE A DELAYED PERIOD FOR HEATING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING, SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KHYS AND KGCK...AND
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS KDDC. THE FOG WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE GENERALLY AFTER 15Z GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
DAY. AS FOR WINDS, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING UP TO 20 TO
30KT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-064>066-079-081.

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

539 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL OF CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG BLANKETING THE REGION. THE FOG WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND BECOME GUSTY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

JAKUB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...DENSE FOG TRENDS THIS MORNING THEN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY
BACK TO SEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID-WEEK AS THE MEAN UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER.

DARMOFAL

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 73 48 57 25 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 73 43 52 23 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 72 46 53 23 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 71 50 58 26 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 74 52 63 27 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 69 35 43 20 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 71 37 44 20 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 70 40 47 22 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 72 42 50 22 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 73 59 67 32 / 10 30 60 10
CHANUTE 73 57 63 29 / 10 30 50 10
IOLA 73 57 63 28 / 10 30 50 10
PARSONS-KPPF 73 58 65 30 / 10 30 60 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068-082.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2013

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ080-081.

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

1011 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING...ALLOWING LIGHT
PRECIP TO BECOME MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT FOR A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. HAVE ALLOWED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AS PLANNED THIS MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
LIFT TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE...PRECIP WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END W TO E. LATEST RADAR RETURNS/OBS SHOW
PRECIP ALREADY ENDING ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95. PRECIP
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE ERN FA AROUND NOON. ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL TRACK THROUGH NRN VA THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE NRN PORTIONS
OF THE ERN SHORE.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY RESULTS IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/WEAK
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO TRUMP LOW LEVEL WAA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE 10M BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH H85 TEMPS
INCREASING TO AROUND +8C. WAA VISIBLE ON MORNING KWAL SOUNDING PER
AN INCREASE IN 850 TEMPS OF 15C OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE INHERITED DAYTIME HIGHS...BUMPING TEMPS DOWN A DEG
OR TWO ACROSS THE W. OF INTEREST...LATEST RAP GUIDANCE ERODES THE
CLOUD DECK OVER THE PIEDMONT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID 50S. HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS AND WAA SUGGESTS THIS
CLOUD COVER/WEDGE SETUP WILL GO NOWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS FORECAST
TO ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. CONTINUED WAA OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH MOIST SOILS AND WEAK MIXING WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR QUICKLY STREAMS INTO THE AREA AS WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTHWARD. WITH WEAK MIXING EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY WL NEED TO WATCH PROGRESS OF WEDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST,
BUT FOR NOW INCRIMENTALLY NUDGED TEMPS UPWARDS. OTHERWISE, ONCE
LLVL INVERSION GETS BROKEN, EXPECT MARKEDLY WARMER CONDS ON
TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH NUDGES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WARM SW FLOW SETS
UP. LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HIGHS TUE FM THE U50S TO
M60S. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M/U40S ON THE ERN SHR TO L/M50S
ELSW.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES AOB
FREEZING AT THE ONSET...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT WINTRY PCPN OF SN/PL/ZR
FOR MAINLY KRIC AND KSBY. CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 2500
FT DEW TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SO THE LIGHT PCPN WILL BE FALLING
OUT OF SOME HIGHER DECKS AND VSBY WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 5 MI. SFC
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE TURNING ANY LINGER PCPN TO RAIN. FOR
PHF/ORF/ECG...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN THE SFC AND 5K FT WILL
INHIBIT MUCH OF THE PCPN FROM REACHING THE GROUND SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS OF YET AND SFC TEMPS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD ANY PCPN REACH THE GROUND. THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 18Z WITH THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CAROLINAS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR STRATUS
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS. THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SW FLOW. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AND ALSO THE CENTRAL CHES BAY
NORTH OF WINDMILL PT AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE LATE TODAY...BUT HAVE CAPPED WIND GUSTS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN SCA HEADLINE.
HOWEVER...HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR THE CENTRAL CHES BAY NORTH OF
WINDMILL AS NEWEST HIGH-RES MODEL DATA INSISTS SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SW WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT S-SW FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ON
TUESDAY.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND THE
WATERS. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT...ENOUGH WIND
SHOULD REACH THE WATER SFC TO WARRANT SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS
FROM MID-MORNING WED INTO EARLY THURS MORNING. SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD
WED AFTERNOON...REACHING 8 TO 10 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM LATE. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY THURS MORNING ACCOMPANIED
BY MODEST CAA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

554 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Hawblitzel

Medium Range (Thursday through Monday):

Blair

.AVIATION...

For the 12Z TAFs...weak front has nudged south to near an MKC-IRK
line. This front will stall near this position then return north as a
warm front through the morning. Widespread dense fog has settled in
north of this boundary, with a well-defined southern edge about 60 nm
north of the surface boundary from near SLN to 25 nm N of STJ to BRL.
Satellite trends show that this fog has ceased moving southward and
should begin retreating northward through the morning, leaving STJ
and KC terminals unaffected.

Main concern for the STJ/MKC/MCI TAF sites will be stratus deck which
is currently MVFR (small band of DZ and very low cigs near MCI is
dissipating). Model soundings continue to show these clouds lowering
into IFR for much of the morning and then lifting back into MVFR late
in the day. Confidence on this happening is not terribly high, but
IFR cigs do exist further southwest across cntrl/eastern KS so will
go ahead and bring these into the terminals later this morning.
If/when these low cigs lift back into MVFR is quite questionable but
best bet is that daytime heating brings cigs back to MVFR by
afternoon.

Could see some scattered showers or convection develop overnight but
better chances are after 12Z Tues. Not enough confidence to introduce
TS/CB at this time. Considered LLWS overnight with strong 50-kt winds
at 2 kft, but low level winds look to gradually increase with height
versus a sharp increase, so kept it out for now.

Hawblitzel

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>008-011.

KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

747 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARM UP WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR A PERIOD
OF MIXED SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WARM AND RAINY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SETTING THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION ADVANCING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
AT 7 AM THE 11Z RAP 925MB 0C ISOTHERM HAS LIFTED NORTH ACROSS
CHAUTAUQUA AND WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND INTO THE GENESEE RIVER VALLEY. THE 3C ISOTHERM IS
LOCATED FROM BUFFALO SOUTHWARD WITH SURFACE TEMPS 30 AND BELOW IN
THESE AREAS. THIS INDICATES THAT WARM AIR IS OVERSPREADING THE COLD
DENSE AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGE OCCURRING
AS IT FALLS FROM COLD TO WARM TO COLD AGAIN. BUFFALO RADAR
REFLECTIVITY SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FREEZING RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT BUFFALO AND NIAGARA FALLS DOWN TO
WELLSVILLE WHERE THE WARM NOSE ALOFT HAS RISEN GREATER THAN 3C. SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE HAS ALLOWS TEMPS TO WARM TO 36
FOR DUNKIRK SO RAIN IS BEING REPORTED THERE. SNOW AND SLEET IS
FALLING EAST OF I-390 WHERE THE WARM NOSE ALOFT HAS NOT WARMED ENOUGH
FOR FREEZING RAIN. A PEEK AT THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT PRODUCT ON
THE DUAL-POL INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SLEET MIXING IN OVER ALLEGANY
COUNTY NORTH TO JUST WEST OF ROCHESTER AS CC VALUES WERE RUNNING
BETWEEN 0.85 AND 0.95 INDICATING HYDROMETEORS BECOMING
MIS-SHAPED...ICING/SLEET OCCURRING.

THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING FORCED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER INDIANA
AMD WESTERN OHIO. THROUGH TODAY THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS NEW YORK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE ABOUT A
3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LONGEST DURATION OF PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NORTH COUNTRY. IT
PROBABLY SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...THE RECENT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND COLD GROUND MAY
STILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON
SURFACES.

MODEL QPF NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT WITH NEARLY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH LONGER DURATION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY LIKELY
PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL HOLD TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS BUT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
UPPER GENESEE VALLEY COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH ESPECIALLY
IN COLDER VALLEYS. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED FREEZING PRECIPITATION ON
TOP OF THE INITIAL MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY THE WARMER AIR BUILDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT JUST PLAIN RAIN. THE ENDING
TIMES OF THESE ADVISORIES CORRELATE WITH WHEN WE EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL RAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH TO AROUND 40
FOR MUCH OF WNY WITH 30S AND EVEN UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH COUNTY WHERE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO DRIVE THE WEATHER TODAY WILL
ALSO CREATE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

FOR TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALSO LIFTING NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND LOWER CENTRAL NY TO BE RAIN WITH SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. EVENTUALLY THE WARM NOSE WILL SPREAD OVER EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES AS WELL WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED
PRECIP. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NY AND EVENTUALLY INCHING
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WET AND VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CHARACTERIZE THE INITIAL PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MARCH EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE
USHERING IN THE RETURN OF WINTER ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE BULK OF THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK WILL HAVE PUSH
EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO START OUT THE DAY
WITH POPS RAMPING UP ONCE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RIDING OVER
THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS +10C
ADVECTING NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS AIRMASS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOWER 50S FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WEST WHILE AREAS EAST
WILL STAY IN THE 40S.

THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE UNABATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
COOLING BEING OFFSET BY THE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH
CLOUD COVER/ONGOING PRECIP AS THE WARM FRONTAL BAND LIFTS NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXTENSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFTING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND WILL RESULT IN QPF APPROACHING HALF AN INCH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE DISRCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN.
HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST POPS WILL BE NORTH OF
THE THRUWAY WHILE AREAS SOUTH MAY STAY IN THE DRIER WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER ISSUE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE COLD LAKES WILL BE FOG AND HAVE UPDATED GRIDS
TO INCLUDE THIS. AS THE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...WILL ASSUME THAT MOST OF THE LAND AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD STAY FOG FREE...HOWEVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FROM DOWNTOWN
BUFFALO NORTH ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY MAY BE THE RECIPIENTS OF
ADVCETION FOG OFF LAKE ERIE IF THERE IS ANY SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS.

WE WILL SEE A VERY BALMY TO WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM WHICH RAPIDLY DEVELOP A VERY DEEP LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FROM A WAVE MOVING UP THE FRONT MARKING THE
BOUDNARY BETWEEN THE WARM AIR OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A SUB-ARCTIC
BLAST OF COLD AIR DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF CANADA.
ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF FEATURES A WEAKER SERIES OF WAVES THAT
WORK THEIR WAY ALONG THE SLOWER MOVING FRONTAL BOUDNARY...WITH NO
SINGLE LOW BECOMING DOMINANT. THIS HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
WIND FORECAST FOR OUR AREA AS A NAM/GFS SOLUTION WITH THE DEEP LOW
TRACKING OUT THE CENTRAL LAKES COULD MEAN A SIGIFICANT WIND EVENT
ACROSS THE AREA...WHILST THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE MUCH MORE
BENIGN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH ALSO PRESERVES CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...STILL EXPECT A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDENSDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH BREEZY...BUT NOT
DAMAGING...SOUTH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TO
THE WEST AS TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE MID 50S EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE ANOTHER DECENT SOAKING RAIN WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF QPF POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES COOL
TO THE POINT THAT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP...

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS WORKED NORTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY WITH A MIX OF
SNOW AND SLEET FOR KROC AND ALL SNOW NOW ARRIVING AT KART. CIGS AND
VIS ARE RUNNING MVFR/IFR IN ALL AREAS. A 50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH IS FORCING THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TODAY AS AN INVERSION
ALOFT SEALS OFF THESE HIGH WINDS FROM THE SURFACE.

GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR WNY...THE AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WARM ENOUGH DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR A CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN. EXPECT THE LIQUID PRECIP TO TAPER OFF CLOSER TO THE
EVENING AND TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN A MIXED PHASE WELL INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
KART.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BRING SOME HIGHER WINDS TO
LAKE ERIE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE LAKES THROUGH TODAY AS THE
WARMER AIR SLOWLY WORKS NORTHWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN LAKE SHORES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT EXPECT
THESE TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ005>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ003-004-013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

530 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION ADVANCING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
AT 5 AM THE 09Z RAP 925MB 0C ISOTHERM HAS WORKED NORTH ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK AND IS SPREADING EAST INTO THE GENESEE RIVER VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL IN THE 20S. THIS
INDICATES THAT WARM AIR IS OVERSPREADING THE COLD DENSE AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGE OCCURRING AS IT FALLS FROM
COLD TO WARM TO COLD AGAIN. BUFFALO RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWING SNOW
HAS SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY. SNOW IS BEING REPORTED AT
OLEAN NORTH TO BUFFALO...NIAGARA FALLS AND ROCHESTER WITH FREEZING
RAIN AT DUNKIRK ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AS WARM AIR INCREASES
ALOFT...SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN WILL MIX IN AND CHANGE OVER. A PEEK
AT THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT PRODUCT ON THE DUAL-POL INDICATED
SLEET ALREADY MIXING IN EARLIER NEAR SALAMANCA AND OLEAN AND MOST
RECENTLY IS MIXING IN OVER MUCH OF CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND INTO
ERIE COUNTY AS CC VALUES WERE RUNNING BETWEEN 0.85 AND 0.95
INDICATING HYDROMETEORS BECOMING MIS-SHAPED...ICING/SLEET OCCURRING.

THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING FORCED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER INDIANA.
THROUGH TODAY THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE ABOUT A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
LONGEST DURATION OF PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH COUNTRY. IT PROBABLY SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN AFTER
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...THE RECENT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND COLD GROUND MAY STILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON SURFACES.

MODEL QPF NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT WITH NEARLY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH LONGER DURATION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY LIKELY
PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL HOLD TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS BUT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
UPPER GENESEE VALLEY COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH ESPECIALLY
IN COLDER VALLEYS. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED FREEZING PRECIPITATION ON
TOP OF THE INITIAL MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WITH AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE NOW WORKING NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NY. CIGS AND VIS ARE RUNNING IFR IN THESE AREAS
WITH KROC ABOUT TO DROP TO IFR ONCE THE SNOW ARRIVE. KART IS VFR
WITH SNOW AN HOUR OR TWO AWAY. THROUGH THIS MORNING EXPECT A WINTERY
MIX TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITH KART BEING THE LAST TO SEE THE
ARRIVING SNOW. IFR WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP HERE TOO WHEN SNOW ARRIVES.
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR WNY...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME WARM
ENOUGH DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN. EXPECT THE
LIQUID PRECIP TO TAPER OFF CLOSER TO THE EVENING AND TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN A MIXED PHASE
WELL INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR KART.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

510 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

MODEL QPF NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT WITH NEARLY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH LONGER DURATION OF SNOW FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY LIKELY
PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL HOLD TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS BUT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
UPPER GENESEE VALLEY COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH ESPECIALLY
IN COLDER VALLEYS. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED FREEZING PRECIPITATION ON
TOP OF THE INITIAL MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WITH AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE NOW WORKING NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. CIGS AND VIS ARE
RUNNING IFR IN THESE AREAS WITH STILL VFR FOR KROC AND KART AS
PRECIP HAS NOT STARTED YET THERE. FROM NOW THROUGH THIS MORNING
EXPECT WINTRY MIX TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WEST OF SYRACUSE. NOT
EXPECTING SNOW FOR KART UNTIL AFTER NOONTIME. IFR WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP HERE. GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR WNY...THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WARM ENOUGH DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
RAIN. EXPECT THE LIQUID PRECIP TO TAPER OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN A MIXED PHASE WELL INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR KART.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

930 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:

MID MORNING TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. THUS...FZRA THREAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH HAS ENDED AND
THE ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. NEAR TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MAX TEMPS A GOOD 4-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z GSO SOUNDING INDICATE AS THICK LAYER OF WARM AIR
JUST 500-1000FT OFF THE SURFACE. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS
WARMER AIR REACHING THE SURFACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAP AND NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SLOWER (NOT UNTIL 4-5 PM) BUT ALSO SUGGEST
WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
IDENTIFYING A MECHANISM TO DRAW THIS WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE. NOT
COUNTING ON ANY HEATING AS EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES ALL DAY WITH
CEILINGS ACTUALLY LOWERING LATER TODAY WITH PATCHES OF DRIZZLE/VERY
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AS SLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS.

FOR NOW...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP 2-3 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS
EXCLUDING THE NW PIEDMONT/TRIAD WHERE RESIDUAL PIEDMONT AIR MASSES
HAVE A TENDENCY TO HANG ON. STILL APPEARS A LIKELIHOOD WE WILL SEE
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...STARTING
FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THEN SPREAD NWD. MAY ALSO SEE FOG
DEVELOP TOWARD SUNSET WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.

TONIGHT....WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED WITH
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG A REAL CONCERN. TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD
STEADY IN THE 40S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING WITH KINT AND KGSO ENDING WITHIN THE HOUR. KFAY COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT KRDU AND KRWI WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...FREEZING
RAIN IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MOST LIKELY AT KRWI.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER
TODAY. SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OUT THERE THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AGAIN DETERIORATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SOME HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COULD CREATE
MORE OF A LOW STRATUS SITUATION WITH LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE. VISIBILITIES MAY COME DOWN VARYING AMOUNTS BUT THAT WONT
MATTER GIVEN CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO LIFR.

LOOKING AHEAD:

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

727 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTENDED TO INCLUDE COUNTIES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THROUGH 9AM...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

LOOKING AHEAD:

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-024>028-041-043.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

632 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXTENDED TO INCLUDE COUNTIES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THROUGH 9AM...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

LOOKING AHEAD:

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

717 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...THE LOW CIGS AND VSBY UNDER 2 MILES HAS MOVED INTO THE
THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA. LOCAL REPORTS FROM THAT AREA INDICATE
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE STARTED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. THUS...WILL
EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA. INCOMING RAP
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST VSBY WILL IMPROVE BY 18Z...WHICH SHOULD
CORRESPOND TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ENDING. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS WITH CLEARING SKY ABOUT TO
ENTER THE SOUTHWEST FA.

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN EDGE OF THESE LOW CIGS MIGHT ADVECT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO KGFK/KTVF BY
LATE AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN PESSIMISTIC IN THE TAF
FORECAST). FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013/

UPDATE...DID NOT WANT TO COMPLICATE THINGS ANY MORE...BUT GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN ICY ROADS. WILL NEED TO ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE) THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS
ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL LIKELY END THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE. LATEST RAP INDICATES VISIBILITY WILL
IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS ADVISORY BY NOON...WHICH
SHOULD CORRESPOND TO THE END OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED NIGHT)...THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF A HEAVY SNOW BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA. 00Z
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE
REGION TODAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY (09Z) ALONG THE
SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
NE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND WILL INCLUDE 50% POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND MOST
VISIBILITIES ARE 1/2SM OR GREATER. WILL MONITOR...BUT FOR NOW NO
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL EJECT FROM
THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL INDUCE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND LEAD TO A BAND OF PRECIP
BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS
BAND...GENERALLY FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE PARK RAPIDS AREA (CONTINUING TO THE NORTHEAST). THE ECMWF/GFS
ARE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE NAM/RAP WITH PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF/GFS
SHOW 0.50-0.70 INCHES QPF WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND...WHILE THE
NAM/4-KM WRF SHOW 0.80-1.00 INCHES QPF WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND.
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE...SUGGESTING THAT
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MAY BE MORE CORRECT (HIGHER QPF).
850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE PRECIP BEGINS...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. SNOW RATIO
VALUES WILL BE LOW (MORE TOWARD 10:1-12:1). FINAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL DEPEND UPON THE DURATION OF THE FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING
TO SNOW. THE OTHER CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THESE EVENTS IS THAT THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS QUITE NARROW. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
6-12 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ON
EITHER SIDE...BUT NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND WILL BE
LOCATED. STILL A FEW QUESTIONS WITH THIS EVENT...AND THE SMART
THING TO DO AT THIS POINT WILL BE A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
AREA WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH. WILL
NEED TO WATCH WINDS TUE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A COLD START
THEN MODERATING TEMPS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BLO ZERO HIGH TEMPS AND
NW WINDS TO COMBINE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODERATING TEMPS BEGIN FRIDAY WITH 500MB FLOW BECOMING
LESS NORTHERLY AND A BIT MORE NWLY AS THICKNESSES RISE WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF ARCTIC SFC HIGH. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SCHC OF
-SN ON FRI/SAT WITH A RETURN TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR
NEXT SUNDAY.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ027>030-038-
039-049-052-053.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NDZ052-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>003-
013>016-022>024-027>032-040.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR MNZ003-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.

$$
TG/JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

428 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...DID NOT WANT TO COMPLICATE THINGS ANY MORE...BUT GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN ICY ROADS. WILL NEED TO ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE) THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS
ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL LIKELY END THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE. LATEST RAP INDICATES VISIBILITY WILL
IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS ADVISORY BY NOON...WHICH
SHOULD CORRESPOND TO THE END OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE.

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN EDGE OF THESE LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY ADVECT
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
KGFK/KTVF BY LATE AFTERNOON. FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THE A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED NIGHT)...THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF A HEAVY SNOW BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA. 00Z
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ027>030-038-
039-049-052-053.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NDZ052-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>003-
022>024-027>032-040.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR MNZ003-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.

$$
TG/JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

540 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
344 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
344 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

28.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND EVEN SURFACE PATTERNS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
540 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/FG WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED OVER THE
AREA BETWEEN A SFC-900MB INVERSION AND THE COLD...ICE/SLEET COVERED
GROUND. SOME INDICATIONS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
AND WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILD IN WILL ERODE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON BUT INVERSION REMAINS STRONG WITH MINIMAL
CHANGE OF THE SFC-900MB AIRMASS. LEFT BKN IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE AFTERNOON BUT APPEARS FOG SHOULD LIFT WITH MVFR VSBYS FOR
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

ANOTHER CENTRAL PLAINS LOW HEADS TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF OF MX MOISTURE. CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER BACK INTO
IFR/LIFR TONIGHT AS THIS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH OVER THE COLD GROUND.
MORE -DZ/-SHRA TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/LIFT ARRIVES. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO THE AREA
AS WELL TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT MAY RESULT
IN A FEW TSRA FOR KLSE AND LOCATIONS EAST/SOUTH OF KLSE. THIS VERY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
TSRA/CB MENTION AT THIS TIME.

BOUNDARY LAYER AIR TEMPS LOOKING TO BE ABOVE 32F TONIGHT...BUT SOME
FREEZING/ICING MAY STILL OCCUR ON RUNWAYS DUE TO THE COLD/FROZEN
GROUND.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
344 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ041-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

157 PM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AS
WELL AS A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH COCHISE AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS STILL
BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET MOST AREAS...BUT WILL LOWER AS THE
EVENING GOES ON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT DOWN TO NEAR 3500 FEET.
SHOWERS HAD NOT BEEN TOO WIDESPREAD AS EXPECTED...SO WILL MAINTAIN
THE SCATTERED TYPE WORDING AND POP VALUES FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...BUT LATEST RAP AND HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
DESERTS AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES
BY. CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS...A SEASONABLE LIGHT FREEZE FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A RAPID REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THEREAFTER... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWED A SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC CLOUDS 5-8K FT AGL AND MTNS OBSCD...WITH SCT
-SHRA/SHSN THRU TONIGHT...THEN SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY WLY-SWLY 12-22 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EAST
OF TUCSON THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...THEN MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FROM KTUS WESTWARD AND 10-20 KTS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOR
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER TUESDAY BUT WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR AZZ510

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1251 PM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MST MON JAN 28 2013

REMOVED THOMAS...SHERIDAN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES FROM THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO REMOVE RAWLINS...DECATUR AND
NORTON NEXT HOUR.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 60S OUTSIDE OF THE FOG AREAS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND DO NOT PLAN ONE
UNLESS WINDS INCREASE MORE. RH VALUES ARE STAYING ABOVE 20 PERCENT
SO DO NOT THINK FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN.

MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. PRECIPITATION IS HANGING BACK IN
WYOMING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS FOG/STRATUS IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THAT MIGHT REACH THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ002>004.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ080-081.

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1216 PM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MST MON JAN 28 2013

REMOVED LOGAN AND GOVE COUNTIES FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE
FOG AND STRATUS IS QUICKLY ERODING NORTH TO SOUTH...WILL PROBABLY
BE ABLE TO CANCEL THOMAS...SHERIDAN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES NEXT HOUR.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ080-081.

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1214 PM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MST MON JAN 28 2013

REMOVED LOGAN AND GOVE COUNTIES FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. THE
FOG AND STRATUS IS QUICKLY ERODING NORTH TO SOUTH...WILL PROBABLY
BE ABLE TO CANCEL THOMAS...SHERIDAN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES NEXT HOUR.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ080-081.

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1105 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z FOR EASTERN AREAS. MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL A BIT EARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER...LOGAN AND
GOVE...AS SATELLITE SHOWING FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

ALSO ADJUSTED ALL WEATHER PARAMETERS IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING STRATUS/FOG. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW THE CLEARING LINE WILL REACH THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER SOME TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MCCOOK TO NORTON AREAS MAY
NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL AND CONSEQUENTLY SLASHED TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016-028-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ080-081.

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1150 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AROUND KRSL AT START OF THE
FORECAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS BACK EDGE OF FOG/STRATUS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND SUSPECT MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOW
END VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AT KCNU. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET. THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY CLEAR AS DRY SLOT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH KRSL/KSLN ON TUE MORNING.
-HOWERTON

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL OF CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG BLANKETING THE REGION. THE FOG WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND BECOME GUSTY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

JAKUB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...DENSE FOG TRENDS THIS MORNING THEN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY
BACK TO SEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID-WEEK AS THE MEAN UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER.

DARMOFAL

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1144 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON
JAN 28 2013

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST IS HOW FAR SOUTHWEST WILL ANY
DENSE FOG DEVELOP.

THE SITES OF HLC, RSL, ICT, AND MCK HAVE ALL ALREADY BEEN DOWN TO
1/4SM IN DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. HYS HAS FLIRTED WITH 1SM AND GBD
IS DOWN TO 3SM AT 08Z. THE RUC AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
STRONG WITH FORECASTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE FROM NEAR
SCOTT CITY DOWN TO PRATT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA, UNTIL ABOUT 17Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL ABOUT 17Z, THEN WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH IN THE NPW
AREA. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG RAPIDLY. AS WINDS BECOME
STRONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 18Z, GENERALLY IN THE
20G30MPH RANGE, WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MIX DOWN.
AT 850MB, THE DDC TEMP AT 00Z WAS 3C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, AND
WAS AT +13C. A SWATH OF +14C AIR WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THUS, I THINK HIGHS WILL REACH
LEVELS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, WHERE A
RECORD HIGH WAS SET AT P28 AT 74F. THE AREAS IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL HAVE A DELAYED PERIOD FOR HEATING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING, SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HAS ERODED THE FOG AND
STRATUS LAYER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT,
CEILINGS OR RESTRICTIVE VISIBILITIES WILL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE FOR
ANY OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS TERMINAL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 07 AND 10 UTC TUESDAY, TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST.

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

942 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

CLEARED WESTERN COUNTIES FROM DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE REMAINING
COUNTIES WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM WEST TO
EAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-
028-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ080-081.

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

132 PM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS LIFTED OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION...AND LOW
CLOUDS AND VSBYS HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES (ALTHOUGH IFR
CIGS ARE NOT FAR OFF FROM KSBY). EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS MAY PERSIST AT
KSBY AND MVFR CIGS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SE VA/NE NC AFTER 20Z.

FOR TONIGHT...DUE TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TREND THE TAFS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS (< 1 K FT) DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW FLOW
TYPICALLY INHIBITS VSBYS FROM DROPPING DOWN TOO FAR SO FOR NOW
HAVE GENLY GONE WITH 3-5SM (ALTHOUGH IT MAY DROP MORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CIGS MAY ALSO DROP DOWN TO < 500 FT). THE LOW LEVEL
SW TO W FLOW ON TUESDAY SHOULD GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT STRONG SO MAY TAKE AWHILE
(FOR NOW HAVE IFR CIGS IN TAFS THROUGH 16Z). FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY RETURN FOR SOME OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. A STRONGER SSW
WIND ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS. THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT LATE WED AFTN THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA. DRIER WNW FLOW THU.

.MARINE...
PER LATEST OBS AND TRENDS HAVE ADDED SCA HEADLINES TO MIDDLE BAY
ZONE SO NOW THE BAY NORTH OF NEW PT COMFORT IS COVERED W/ SCA
HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SW FLOW. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AND ALSO THE CENTRAL CHES BAY
NORTH OF WINDMILL PT AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE LATE TODAY...BUT HAVE CAPPED WIND GUSTS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN SCA HEADLINE.
HOWEVER...HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR THE CENTRAL CHES BAY NORTH OF
WINDMILL AS NEWEST HIGH-RES MODEL DATA INSISTS SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SW WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT S-SW FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ON
TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...JDM/LKB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1116 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE RAINY
CONDITIONS TODAY. WARMER TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
AND BRINGS BACK COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING
AND PRECIPITATION HAS TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN IN CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND GARRETT COUNTY.

RECENT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
PA...THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED POPS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST RAP MODEL RUN SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD GENERAL IDEA OF MAX TEMP
FOR TODAY AS NAM/GFS SEEMED TOO COOL AND PERHAPS DID NOT PICK UP
WELL ON WARM AIR ADVECTION.

AS DEW POINTS MOVE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT WIDESPREAD
FOG TO DEVELOP A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRANSITION NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING OF ANY
PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE WILL BE UNCERTAIN BUT WENT WITH A DECLINE IN
POPS TO CHANCE NUMBERS AS THE BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA.

WIDESPREAD FOG IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE COLD GROUND
AND DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE 40S. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A VERY MILD
TUESDAY WITH THE REGION UNDER A BROAD RIDGE IN AMPLIFIED FLOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED USING A ECMWF/GFSE BLEND...LEAVING
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST...SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME UPSLOPING SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY.
COLD FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUING. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILL INDICIES AE POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC CHART SHOWS A WARM FRONT WAS WORKING NEWD THRU THE RGN.
WINTRY PCPN HAS BEGUN TO SWITCH TO RA FM SW-NE AND THIS SHOULD
CONT AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN. ALL FZRA SHOULD BE OVR AT PIT BY 14Z.
CONDS HAVE BEEN DCRG TO IFR ACRS MUCH OF THE RGN. CONDS COULD VARY
BTWN MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES THRU THE AFTN ALTHOUGH EXPTG IFR TO BE
PREDOMINATE COND. LLVL JET MOVG IN WL BRING LLWS CONDS AS WELL
THRU LT AFTN...WITH TEMP INVERSION LMTG MXG DOWN OF GUSTS TO THE
SFC. IFR EXPTD OVRNT IN LOW CIGS/BR. COULD SEE -DZ BUT KEPT OUT OF
FCST ATTM.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WL CONT THRU TUE. PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WED
THRU FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU AND COLD NW FLOW DVLPS BEHIND
IT.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008-
009-015-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ007-013-014-020>023-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ023-041.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

413 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST THE HEADLINES. STARTING WITH THE HRRR/RUC THEN THE REST OF
THE 12Z RUNS...MODELS BEGAN TO SHIFT HEAVY SNOW BAND FOR TONIGHT
FARTHER NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE SNOW NW OF THE MPX
CWA. MAY STILL GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAR NW CORNERS
OF TODD...DOUGLAS...AND STEVENS COUNTIES...SO WITH THAT ALONG WITH
MATCHING UP WITH WHAT NEIGHBORS WERE DOING...ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOSE THREE COUNTIES. AT THE OTHER END OF THE
CWA HAVE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NE 3 COUNTIES IN WI. NOT
THRILLED WITH DOING THIS ADVISORY...BUT TO MATCH UP WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...INCLUDED THESE COUNTIES IN A FREEZING RAIN
ADVY. EVERYWHERE ELSE...DENSE FOG IS LOOKING LIKE ALL BUT A
CERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT...SO A NEW DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED.

UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THIS HEADLINE FUN IS A DEEP
THROUGH THAT CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE ERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS SFC...A 996 MB LOW AT 3 PM WAS CENTERED OVER
ERN CO. FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST GUIDANCE ON THIS LOW MOVING
TO NEAR THE SE TIP OF MN BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN OFF TO ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY THE TUE AFTERNOON. SEEING AN IMPRESSIVE WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THIS LOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND DEWPS IN THE LOWER 50S UP TO ALMOST THE IA BORDER.

FOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT...LEANED MOST TOWARD THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING PRECIP IN AND ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS IS A GOOD
CONTINUATION OF WHAT THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING. RIGHT NOW...SEEING
IMPRESSIVE FGEN BAND SETTING UP ACROSS NE SODAK INTO NW MN...AND
LOOKING AT RAP H7-H6 FGEN FORECAST...SHOULD SEE AN INTENSE BAND OF
SNOW SET UP FROM NEAR ABERDEEN UP TO DETROIT LAKES. WITHIN THE
CENTER OF THE BAND SHOULD SEE A GOOD 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. FOR
THE MPX AREA...FAR NW CORNERS OF OUR FAR NW COUNTIES SHOULD GET IN
ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS BAND...WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
BEING POSSIBLE. FOR SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE WEST...WILL HAVE TO WHAT
HAPPENS WITH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT SNEAKS UP WEST OF THE SFC
LOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE GEM WAS THE MOST
BULLISH WITH THIS WAVE...BRING A QUICK 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW TO WRN
MN. DID NOT PUT MUCH STOCK IN IT...BUT NOTICING THAT TOWARD THE
END OF RECENT RAP RUNS IT HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS SECONDARY BAND
SNEAKING IN AS WELL...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS OVERNIGHT TO SEE
IF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE PULLED SOUTH.

OUTSIDE OF THE NW CWA...SOUNDINGS SHOW WHATEVER HAPPENING TONIGHT
TO BE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...WITH ATMO ABOVE ABOUT H8 BEING DRY...
AND LITTLE OR NO SATURATION BEING SEEN IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. SHOULD SEE DZ/RA RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTH AFTER 00Z AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WORKS IN. AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...THE
RAP IS EVEN INDICATING SOME THUNDER BEING POSSIBLE IN THE EAU AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS BEST LIS DROP TO AROUND -1. 18Z HRRR
REFLECTIVITY FORECAST LOOKS CONVECTIVE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. OF
COURSE WITH ALL OF THIS PRECIP THE KEY WILL BE SFC TEMPS. THE
ENTIRE CWA CURRENTLY SITS BETWEEN 32 AND 36 AND WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO CHANGE
MUCH...IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE TO RISE RIGHT THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SE CWA. BECAUSE OF THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES...WAS NOT TOO INCLINED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVY
WITH IT BEING QUESTIONABLE IF TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. IN
ADDITION...WITH P-TYPE MAINLY BEING DZ...NOT EXPECTING MANY IMPACTS
WITH DZ AND TEMPS IN THE 30S WITH ALREADY WET SFCS IN PLACE DUE TO
MELTING TODAY. MAKE IT DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S...AND IT WOULD BE
A DIFFERENT STORY...BUT THAT IS NOT WHAT WE ARE DEALING WITH.
WHERE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL FZRA EXISTS WOULD BE IN
THE FAR NE CWA...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THIS
EVENING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

AS FOR THE FOG...THERE IS NOTHING BUT A SEA OF DENSE FOG FROM SRN
MN DOWN ACROSS IA AND ERN NEB. THIS WILL ADVECT RIGHT BACK NORTH
THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED AGAIN...AS SEEN WITH
THE GRIDDED LAMP...HRRR...AND WRF-NMM. FOG SHOULD IMPROVE LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT WORKS
ACROSS MN. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...RAN THE FOG ADVY THROUGH 10 AM
TUESDAY MORNING EVERYWHERE...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
EARLIER THAN THAT IN WRN MN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA AS DRY ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS BUILDING IN. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SFC
LOW RIPPLES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE TULSA AREA UP TO MID
MICHIGAN. HUNG SOME CHANCE POPS BACK ACROSS ERN AREA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE OFF CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW DEVELOPS WEST OF THE LOW. NOT ALL
THAT EXCITED ABOUT SNOW POTENTIAL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE FACT THAT UPPER FLOW WILL
BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
A COLD CONVEYOR BELT FROM DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOW AS IT WORKS UP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY STAYING
NEAR THE FRONT...AND NOT WORKING BACK TOWARD THE EAU AREA.

OF COURSE THE BIG STORY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBO OF TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW ZERO ON
15 TO 25 MPH NW WINDS WILL BRING BACK THE NEED FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AFTER FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO AND EVEN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SEEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY ON THE ECMWF/GEM...WITH
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BEING POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WILL
MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z TUE. MAY SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVES
TO MVFR TUE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PULLS EAST AND COLDER AIR MOVES
IN. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF MIXED FREEZING RAIN/RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING REMAINS OVER
NORTHWEST AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN THIS
EVENING TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AFTER 04Z AT KAXN. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE -FZDZ OR PLAIN -DZ AS SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A
REAL DEEP MOIST LAYER...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6K FEET. DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY WORK OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA
DURING THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AREAS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE NGT...MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES. NW WIND 10-15 KTS.
WED...MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES. NW WIND 15 TO 25 KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS WITH FLURRIES. NW WIND 10 TO 15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI
PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-
SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-SWIFT-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DOUGLAS-
STEVENS-TODD.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-
PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-ST. CROIX.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-RUSK.

MPG/DWE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1229 PM CST Mon Jan 28 2013

.UPDATE...
/1216 PM CST Mon Jan 28 2013/

Warm front has begun to lift across the forecast region, which has
rapidly cleared skies across the southern 3/4 of the forecast area.
Clouds across southern Missouri may move back in, but they will be
far more scattered in nature, so have gone ahead and upped
temperatures for areas along and south of the Missouri River. Have
also bumped temperatures along the Iowa border as the fog is
disipating and clouds are thinning out, though did not warm them as
much.

Cutter

.DISCUSSION...

Hawblitzel

Medium Range (Thursday through Monday):

Blair

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs...VFR conditions are rapidly spread north across the
terminals as we close in on 18Z. Gusty south winds will spread into
the sites as a result this afternoon. Low clouds, MVFR, will then
move back in this evening. Pressure gradient will stay up through the
overnight hours, so surface winds are not expected to decouple and
will therefore stay above 12 knots all night long. Additionally, with
the strong surface winds comes a strong low level jet, so have also
included wind shear, though it will shift east of the terminals early
Tuesday morning.

Lastly, included some VCTS and PROB30`s for thunderstorms Tuesday
morning. Much of the stormy activity is expected to be east of the
terminals, but some scattered activity might develop far enough west
to impact them in the morning. A front progressing through the
Central Plains will shove the thunderstorm activity farther east
during the afternoon hours.

Cutter

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1152 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Hawblitzel

Medium Range (Thursday through Monday):

Blair

.AVIATION...

Cutter

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1220 PM EST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OFFSHORE WILL CAUSE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS MAX TEMPS. NEAR TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MAX TEMPS A GOOD 4-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z GSO SOUNDING INDICATE AS THICK LAYER OF WARM AIR
JUST 500-1000FT OFF THE SURFACE. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS
WARMER AIR REACHING THE SURFACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAP AND NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SLOWER (NOT UNTIL 4-5 PM) BUT ALSO SUGGEST
WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
IDENTIFYING A MECHANISM TO DRAW THIS WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE. NOT
COUNTING ON ANY HEATING AS EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES ALL DAY WITH
CEILINGS ACTUALLY LOWERING LATER TODAY WITH PATCHES OF DRIZZLE/VERY
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AS SLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT....WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED WITH
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG A REAL CONCERN. TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD
STEADY IN THE 40S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON THEN LOWER INTO
THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THIS EVENING AS SLY FLOW BRINGS GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. THESE LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG
AND DRIZZLE WILL CREATE ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED CLOUD BASES
BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY SKIRT
THE TRIAD TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED WITH
CEILINGS AGAIN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND BE
ISOLATED.

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS TO
OCCUR...MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND
GUSTS 30-40 MPH MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1200 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
344 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
344 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

28.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND EVEN SURFACE PATTERNS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
1159 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST AT KRST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THE DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DENSE FOG REDEVELOPS THIS EVENING. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS
AT KLSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN LOW STRATUS WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 800 FT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. FOG AND
LOW STATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO THE 9 TO 13 KT RANGE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1159 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013

WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

143 PM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN PROBLEM THIS PERIOD WILL BE SNOW OVER THE MTNS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL WIND PROBLEMS WEDS. UPPER JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS NW COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND
OF ENHANCED SNOWS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. LIGHT
SNOWS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AS UPPER DYNAMICS
IMPROVING THERE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF SNOW TO CONTINUE TO WORK EAST
ACROSS THESE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE JET ENERGY LIKEWISE
MOVES EAST THEN DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA. MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING A SHORT LULL IN THE SNOW
BEFORE ENHANCING AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER MTNS AS MOIST NW FLOW SETS
UP. CURRENT HILITES LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND WILL MAINTAIN THEM AS IS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDS. OTHER FACTOR
WILL BE WINDS ON WEDS AS LEE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MAINLY SE WY. IN-HOUSE
WIND PROGRAM INDICATES HEALTHY SFC GRADIENT THUS SHOULD BE PRETTY
WINDY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HILITES FOR
NOW BUT MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GOING TO STILL BE DEALING WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
FRONT LAYING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE STARTING OFF THURSDAY
MORNING. PRETTY GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
COLDEST AIR IN THE PANHANDLE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 700MB
SHOULD KEEP UPSLOPING GOING IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THERE FOR THURSDAY MORNING PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF MOVE BOUNDARY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING WITH MAYBE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

FRIDAY COULD BE WINDY AS GFS SHOWING 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO
50KTS. THE 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT RIGHT AROUND
50MTRS. 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM...INCREASING TO AROUND -6C FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL COLD IN THE PANHANDLE WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND -8C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +2C. WENT A FEW DEGREES
UNDER GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY HIGHS...WE
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT IMPACT DOWNSLOPING PLAYS ON
TEMPERATURES AS THIS TAKES PLACE. MAY HAVE GONE TOO COLD.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO -2C AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS LOOK TO
RETURN TO THE 40S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE/MID 50S EAST SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY LOW 60S IN THE PANHANDLE FOR SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

WIDESPREAD IFR EVENT UNFOLDING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
IFR/VLIFR AT ALL AIRPORTS AND SNOW CONTINUES OUT BY RAWLINS. WITH
THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN. CONFIDENCE HIGH ON THIS HAPPENING AS
LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING SOLID IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY INTO CHEYENNE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AROUND THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH QUITE GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN WIND
PRONE AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR WYZ112-WYZ114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR WYZ113.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR WYZ103.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...RE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CLAYCOMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1041 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013

.UPDATE...
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO ALTER THE TIMING AND LENGTH OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST MODELS
SHOW MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
BEFORE WANING SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

CLAYCOMB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM MST MON JAN 28 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TODAY...CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CURRENTLY MSAS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO WITH A PSEUDO WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THE WYOMING STATE LINE. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

110 KNOT 300 MB JET ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS OUR COUNTIES ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING OVER CARBON COUNTY AND THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS DUE TO JET
DYNAMICS AND THE BAROCLINIC BAND PASSAGE. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING NORTH OF A LARAMIE TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS NARROW...THOUGH FOG WILL BE MORE LIMITED
ACROSS CARBON COUNTY WHERE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH THE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND BAROCLINIC BAND SLIDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE LOW AND MID LEVELS BECOMING MORE
SATURATED...THUS EXPECTING AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW
ACROSS ALL BUT OUR NORTHERN CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. PLUS
LIFT WILL BE PRODUCED BY MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND JET INDUCED DYNAMICS.
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES.

BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...WILL GO CLOSER TO COLDER GUIDANCE NAM MAXIMA.

TONIGHT...500 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA STATE LINES WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS BECOMING WEST AND
NORTHWEST...PRODUCING TEMPORARY LULL IN THE AREAL SNOW
COVERAGE...WITH 30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AND
SNOWY RANGES AND NEARBY VALLEYS DUE TO OROGRAPHICS.

TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD AT LOW AND MID LEVELS. MOIST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
OROGRAPHICS...140 KNOT JET DYNAMICS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE
RIVER BASIN. UPON COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS...AND AGREEMENT
WITH THE HPC SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS...WE HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN AND SARATOGA
AND THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES...EXPECTING SNOWFALL TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 20
OR 30 TO 1...THUS MORE SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
SNOW SHADOWING EFFECT WILL OCCUR EAST OF A LUSK TO LARAMIE LINE WITH
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS. BLUSTERY DAY WITH BRISK WEST WINDS AND
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...DEEP NORTHWEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE SURFACE
TO MID LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW MACHINE AND OROGRAPHICS GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND OVER THE SARATOGA VALLEY
AREA WITH DOWNSLOPING PRODUCING SNOW SHADOW EFFECTS ELSEWHERE...AND
A BRISK AND COLD NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS SLIGHTLY AND BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC.
PERSISTENT MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL AID IN 20 OR 30 TO 1 SNOWFALL RATIOS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW DUE TO PROGGED SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS.
QUITE BLUSTERY AND COLD BASED ON PROGGED GRADIENTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...
PARTICULARLY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
FRIDAY...AND BE LOCATED EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON ITS HEELS SUNDAY NIGHT...
REPLACED BY RIDGING FOR MONDAY.

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES
WILL BENEFIT...WITH ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE MAY RECEIVE UP TO A HALF FOOT OF SNOW AS WELL...WITH
AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE PLAINS. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM -6 TO -10C. A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND 700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 0C WILL EQUATE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. IT WILL BE BREEZY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO EXPECTED HUMIDITIES.

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
LONG TERM...JAMSKI