Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/03/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
729 PM MST WED JAN 2 2013
.UPDATE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM WYOMING
AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND
DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. LATEST RAP AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS ALSO
SUPPORTED THIS IDEA. CANT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER GIVEN THE LATEST OBS AT KIBM AND KAIA IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WILL UPDATE FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
PLAINS AND FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS FROM 03Z-07Z AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN BY
11Z-13Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AT THAT TIME. CLOUD DECK SHOULD
AVERAGE NEAR 7000 FT AGL BUT CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE PERIODS OF
BELOW 6000 FT AGL FOR ILS LANDINGS. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONDITIONS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM MST WED JAN 2 2013/
SHORT TERM...WEB CAMS ACROSS MOUNTAINS STILL SHOWING AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT AND
GRAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE GORE RANGE IN WESTERN
JACKSON COUNTY. THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS AS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
ACROSS PLAINS....ENOUGH MIXING ALLOWED NORTHWESTERLIES TO MIX TO
SURFACE...MAINLY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER AND FAR EASTERN ZONES.
IN ADDITION...SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPED NORTH OF DENVER WHICH
KEPT WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. LATEST RUC SHOWS ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO MOVING SOUTH DURING THE EVENING WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. DRIER SUBSIDENT AIR TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS REGION...SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING SNOW COME TO AN END
WITH CLEARING SKIES. THERE MAY BE A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUD MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES
TO GRADUALLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. AS AIRMASS STABILIZES...SHOULD SEE
WINDS DECREASE ACROSS PLAINS BUT REMAIN A BIT GUSTY OVER THE
RIDGES. MODELS STILL HINTING A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE OVERNIGHT. BUT
FLOW ALOFT NOT THAT STRONG AND MORE NORTHERLY. COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS APPROACH 50 MPH IN FAVORED AREAS OF GRAND...JACKSON AND PARK
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND THE PERSISTANT
INVERSIONS ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS...SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP WELL
BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. DID LOWER MINS NEAR KREMMLING A FEW MORE
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEARING SKIES. ENOUGH DRAINAGE IN AND
NEAR FOOTHILLS TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER. ON THURSDAY...UPPER
TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE AIRMASS WILL BE
FAIRLY DRY WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
TO MODERATE A BIT...THOUGH INVERSIONS WILL LIMIT WARMUP...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
ZERO NEAR KREMMELING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S NEAR GREELEY.
LONG TERM...THE CURRENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FAST NORTHEASTWARD MOVING PACIFIC
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE PAC NW COAST. THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PROVIDE A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US INCLUDING NE COLO. AS THE
WEAKENING RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND FLATTENS...THE WARMEST MID
LEVEL TEMPS FOLD OVER ONTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL GIVE WAY
TO THE START OF WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE DISORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
ROCKIES GIVES WAY TO A VERY WEAK AND DRY UPPER LOW OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE. QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS INDICATE VERY LIGHT LIFT
ASSOC WITH THIS OVER NE CO AND WILL KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. THIS UPPER
LOW IS EVENTAULLY DRAWN INTO A ALBERTA CLIPPER-TYPE FEATURE DROPPING
OUT OF CANADA AND QUICKLY EVACUTES THE REGION TO THE NE US. WILL
NEED TO WATCH IN LATER RUNS IF THIS FAST DROPPING CANADIAN TROUGH
PUSHES A WEAK BUT DRY COLD FRONT/SURGE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FOR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF SO...ONLY TEMPS LOOK TO BE COOLED
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY REESTABLISHED OVER THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL US AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALI
COAST. TEMP GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS WITHOUT A SOLID
SNOWPACK. STILL EXPECT MTN VALLEYS TO REMAIN COLD DURING THE NIGHT
PERIODS. LOOKING TOWARD MONDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...GFS SWINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH OVER THE US/CAN BORDER
WHILE A SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLIP THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF COLO. AT THIS TIME FRONT LOOKS DRY. BEYOND MONDAY GFS
INDICATES VERY BENIGN DRY FLOW OVER THE STATE AS THE TROUGH OFF OF
THE CALI COAST DROPS AND WEAKENS INTO THE BAJA REGION. THIS PERIOD
ALSO REMAINS DRY WITH NO DISCERNABLE TEMP ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
ENTIRE ATMOS.
AVIATION...ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE DENVER AREA HAS KEPT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT DEN WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT BJC AND APA. WINDS
HAVE BEEN A BIT GUSTY AT DEN...BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
DECREASING. WINDS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS AND
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 02Z...THEN SOUTHWEST BY 04Z AS
DRAINAGE PATTERN DEVELOPS. VFR TO PREVAIL WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUD MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING WITH CEILINGS AROUND 10000 FEET FOR A SHORT TIME. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10
KTS. WINDS COULD TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT DEN AND APA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....FREDIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
916 PM MST MON DEC 31 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MST MON DEC 31 2012
SNOWFALL HAS DECREASED OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ONLY LOCALLY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ON NORTH
AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 31 2012
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE ACTIVE SHORT WAVE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...EXCEPT
FOR SOME ENHANCED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY STILL IMPACTING PAGOSA SPRINGS...AND THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION RAP MODEL KEEPS SNOW ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
ENDING BY MID EVENING. REFINED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED BY LATE
EVENING. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE AFTER SUNSET AND THEN LEVEL OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT.
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA KEEPS A TROUGH
CARVED OUT OVER WESTERN COLORADO ON NEW YEARS DAY. MOISTURE SOURCE
FOR THIS SHORT WAVE IS CONTINENTAL AND THEREFORE PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS LOW...BUT DOES KEEP THE AIR MASS UNSETTLED DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. AREAL
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND FAVOR NORTH FACING SLOPES.
ESSENTIALLY THIS SHORT WAVE KEEPS THE COLD AIR MASS LOCKED IN.
2013 STARTS THE WAY THAT 2012 ENDED...COLD WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
THE FOLLOWING UPSTREAM WAVE BRUSHES THE PARK/GORE RANGE LATE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME OROGRAPHIC
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 31 2012
IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WED AND THU. AS
THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW CLIPS OUR AREA WED AS
IT DROPS FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS. LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER CO...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LATE IN THE
WEEK...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FIGHTS THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY ON FRIDAY AND BRUSHING BY OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY. AGAIN...LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN THE MODELS.
RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER UT/CO BY SUNDAY. ECMWF THEN BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS INSTEAD
CLOSES OFF A LOW ALONG THE WEST.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAY BE THE VALLEY
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO WARM. SNOW COVER AND TRAPPED
COLD AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE
INVERSIONS WED-FRI THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES WED AND SAT DON/T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT MANY
VALLEYS...AND AREAS LIKE THE GRAND VALLEY AND I-70 CORRIDOR WILL SEE
AIR QUALITY SLOWLY DECLINE. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
FOR THE VALLEYS AS A RESULT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS... HOWEVER...SHOULD
SEE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 904 PM MST MON DEC 31 2012
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. KASE...
KEGE AND KMTJ WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW
AND THIN FOG WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AFTER 09Z...AREAS OF IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEY BOTTOMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
RIVERS...AS LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 16Z TUESDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC
MY LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH THESE WORDS WILL PASS WITH THE
WIND...THE CAMARADERIE SHARED WITH YOU MY FELLOW WEATHER WATCHERS
WILL ALWAYS BE CHERISHED. MAY THE SUN SOFTLY WARM YOU, THE RAIN
GENTLY SATISFY YOU, AND GOD BE WITH YOU...ALWAYS. LOU GIORDANO
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY POSITIVELY TILTED ON THE MODELS AND FAILS TO FEED MUCH
WARM/MOIST AIR UP AHEAD OF IT...LIKELY DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS BY THAT TIME. AS
SUCH...EVEN WITH SOME LIFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE.
AT THE MOMENT IT SEEMS MOST DECENT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
RIDGES...WHERE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TO
ACCENTUATE LIFT. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION...QPF IS PRETTY MEAGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY...ITS FORWARD PHASE SPEED IS PRETTY
QUICK. AS A RESULT...ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
QUITE SMALL.
COLD AIR LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A
STRONG CONSENSUS ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING THE MAIN PLAYER IN
THE FORECAST. AS SUCH...THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH CONTINENTAL
AIR IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPD FOR THE LONG TERM PD. A WK COLD FRONT
IS EXPD TO MOVE THROUGH THE RGN SUNDAY. WL KEEP CHC POPS FOR
SHSN...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH WHERE SOMEWHAT DEEPER
MOISTURE IS FCST. COULD SEE A FEW SHSN IN NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT H8 FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ANTICYCLONIC CUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING
SHSN. HIGH PRES BLDS IN SUN NT THROUGH WED...WITH SEVERAL LOW PRES
SYSTEMS PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH.
SHOULD SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS WELL BY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
PREFERRED TO STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS KFKL AND KDUJ. ELSEWHERE
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SOME HIGH BROKEN CIRRUS. RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE DISTRICT IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BACK WINDS
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...SCATTERING OUT CEILINGS IN THE
NORTH IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY AS
A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH COULD BRING
MVFR CIGS AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD END FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
826 PM EST WED JAN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY SPAWN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA ALONG WITH
RECENT RAP AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT BANDS OF JETSTREAK-
RELATED CIRROSTRATUS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.
WITH SURFACE LAYER REMAINING RATHER DRY WITH SNOWPACK
UNDERNEATH...NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY
MITIGATED. HENCE MADE ONLY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
LOCALES...WHICH WAS GENERALLY 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS GFS AND NAM MOS SHOWED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY POSITIVELY TILTED ON THE MODELS AND FAILS TO FEED MUCH
WARM/MOIST AIR UP AHEAD OF IT...LIKELY DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS BY THAT TIME. AS
SUCH...EVEN WITH SOME LIFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE.
AT THE MOMENT IT SEEMS MOST DECENT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
RIDGES...WHERE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TO
ACCENTUATE LIFT. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION...QPF IS PRETTY MEAGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY...ITS FORWARD PHASE SPEED IS PRETTY
QUICK. AS A RESULT...ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
QUITE SMALL.
COLD AIR LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A
STRONG CONSENSUS ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING THE MAIN PLAYER IN
THE FORECAST. AS SUCH...THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH CONTINENTAL
AIR IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPD FOR THE LONG TERM PD. A WK COLD FRONT
IS EXPD TO MOVE THROUGH THE RGN SUNDAY. WL KEEP CHC POPS FOR
SHSN...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH WHERE SOMEWHAT DEEPER
MOISTURE IS FCST. COULD SEE A FEW SHSN IN NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT H8 FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ANTICYCLONIC CUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING
SHSN. HIGH PRES BLDS IN SUN NT THROUGH WED...WITH SEVERAL LOW PRES
SYSTEMS PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH.
SHOULD SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS WELL BY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
PREFERRED TO STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS KFKL AND KDUJ. ELSEWHERE
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SOME HIGH BROKEN CIRRUS. RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE DISTRICT IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BACK WINDS
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...SCATTERING OUT CEILINGS IN THE
NORTH IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY AS
A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH COULD BRING
MVFR CIGS AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD END FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1041 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STILL VERY UNIMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION REGIME OVER THE AREA IS
BEING DRIVEN BY WHAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
THIS MORNING. THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY 190 KT JET
OVERHEAD...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY TIME OF THE
YEAR...WHILE A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS WELL. TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY GENERALLY WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WHILE JUST TO THE NORTH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 0 TO -15F AS OF THE
LAST FEW HOURS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AS PROGRESSED
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER IT REALLY WILL NEED AN ADDITIONAL KICK TO MOVE
FARTHER.
THE KICK TO THE FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
FAIRLY POTENT MID-LEVEL WAVE TRACKS DOWN THE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH
THE VERY HIGH SPEED UPPER FLOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO KICK
IN BEHIND IT...WHICH WOULD MAKE OUR DIURNALS TODAY JUST ABOUT
ZILCH. AS SUCH...POPS WERE FOCUSED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE POPS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...QPF
AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT. AS A CONTINUATION FROM LAST EVENING AND
LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY...ICE MICROPHYSICS ARE QUITE POOR. AS
SUCH...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT ANYONE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN
AN INCH TODAY...WHILE MOST AREAS SEE MUCH LESS. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO WANE TONIGHT...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO PLUNGE INTO THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL LEAVE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INVERSIONS SO
LOW...ONLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AS 85H RIDGES MOVE EASTWARD. STILL EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS WED...BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AGAIN...WELL BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
BIT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PD...ALTHOUGH PREFER GEFS/NAEFS FOR TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES.
A WK COLD FRONT WL MOVE ACRS THE RGN THU NT...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE
IS CONFINED WELL TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE A FEW SHSN IN NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT DEPTH OF CLOUDS TO KEEP
ACTIVITY MINIMAL...SO KEPT ONLY LOW CHC POPS N OF PIT. HIGH PRES
BLDS IN SAT BEFORE ANOTHER WK FRONT PASSES THROUGH SAT NT...AGAIN
WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGH PRES RIDGES BACK IN MON.
TEMPS WL AVG BLW NORMAL MOST OF THE PD. OPERATIONAL MODELS WARM
THINGS UP MON...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. STAYED CLOSER TO
COOLER ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH RECENT RAP NAM
AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW JETSTREAK-RELATED COLD FRONTAL BAND OF
LIGHT IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 17Z.
POSTFRONTAL COLD POOL COUPLED WITH LAKE-MOISTENED WEST TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION...BE IT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS SURFACE MIXED LAYER WILL BE CAPPED AT 5 KFT AGL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GO FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 8 KTS THIS MORNING...TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT NO
MORE THAN 6 KTS TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD POOL MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE MAY PROMOTE A VFR BREAK THURSDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE NEXT ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
800 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK MRNG UPDATE TO INCRS POPS ACRS THE SRN CWA BASED ON
RADAR/SFC OBS. NO OTHER CHGS ATTM.
PREVIOUS...
FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NW PA AND WILL CONTINUE
IT ARDUOUS TREK SOUTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ON
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE BOUNDARY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS
RUNNING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT AND PROVIDING LIFT.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO GET THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD...WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MADE IT INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE AREA BLANKETED WITH CLOUDS. THERE LIKELY BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER DO NOT THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS INVERSIONS DROP
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THE RIDGES AS
THERE IS AN OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STRONG CAA EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO WANE TONIGHT...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO PLUNGE INTO THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL LEAVE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INVERSIONS SO
LOW...ONLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AS 85H RIDGES MOVE EASTWARD. STILL EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS WED...BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AGAIN...WELL BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
BIT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PD...ALTHOUGH PREFER GEFS/NAEFS FOR TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES.
A WK COLD FRONT WL MOVE ACRS THE RGN THU NT...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE
IS CONFINED WELL TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE A FEW SHSN IN NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT DEPTH OF CLOUDS TO KEEP
ACTIVITY MINIMAL...SO KEPT ONLY LOW CHC POPS N OF PIT. HIGH PRES
BLDS IN SAT BEFORE ANOTHER WK FRONT PASSES THROUGH SAT NT...AGAIN
WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGH PRES RIDGES BACK IN MON.
TEMPS WL AVG BLW NORMAL MOST OF THE PD. OPERATIONAL MODELS WARM
THINGS UP MON...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. STAYED CLOSER TO
COOLER ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH RECENT RAP NAM
AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW JETSTREAK-RELATED COLD FRONTAL BAND OF
LIGHT IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 17Z.
POSTFRONTAL COLD POOL COUPLED WITH LAKE-MOISTENED WEST TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION...BE IT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS SURFACE MIXED LAYER WILL BE CAPPED AT 5 KFT AGL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GO FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 8 KTS THIS MORNING...TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT NO
MORE THAN 6 KTS TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD POOL MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE MAY PROMOTE A VFR BREAK THURSDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE NEXT ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NW PA AND WILL CONTINUE IT ARDUOUS
TREK SOUTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE BOUNDARY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS
RUNNING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT AND PROVIDING LIFT.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO GET THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD...WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MADE IT INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE AREA BLANKETED WITH CLOUDS. THERE LIKELY BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER DO NOT THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS INVERSIONS DROP
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THE RIDGES AS
THERE IS AN OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STRONG CAA EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO WANE TONIGHT...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO PLUNGE INTO THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL LEAVE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INVERSIONS SO
LOW...ONLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AS 85H RIDGES MOVE EASTWARD. STILL EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS WED...BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AGAIN...WELL BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
BIT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PD...ALTHOUGH PREFER GEFS/NAEFS FOR TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES.
A WK COLD FRONT WL MOVE ACRS THE RGN THU NT...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE
IS CONFINED WELL TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE A FEW SHSN IN NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT DEPTH OF CLOUDS TO KEEP
ACTIVITY MINIMAL...SO KEPT ONLY LOW CHC POPS N OF PIT. HIGH PRES
BLDS IN SAT BEFORE ANOTHER WK FRONT PASSES THROUGH SAT NT...AGAIN
WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGH PRES RIDGES BACK IN MON.
TEMPS WL AVG BLW NORMAL MOST OF THE PD. OPERATIONAL MODELS WARM
THINGS UP MON...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. STAYED CLOSER TO
COOLER ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH RECENT RAP NAM
AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW JETSTREAK-RELATED COLD FRONTAL BAND OF
LIGHT IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 17Z.
POSTFRONTAL COLD POOL COUPLED WITH LAKE-MOISTENED WEST TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION...BE IT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS SURFACE MIXED LAYER WILL BE CAPPED AT 5 KFT AGL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GO FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 8 KTS THIS MORNING...TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT NO
MORE THAN 6 KTS TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD POOL MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE MAY PROMOTE A VFR BREAK THURSDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE NEXT ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
421 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NW PA AND WILL CONTINUE IT ARDUOUS
TREK SOUTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE BOUNDARY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS
RUNNING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT AND PROVIDING LIFT.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO GET THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD...WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MADE IT INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE AREA BLANKETED WITH CLOUDS. THERE LIKELY BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER DO NOT THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS INVERSIONS DROP
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THE RIDGES AS
THERE IS AN OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STRONG CAA EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO WANE TONIGHT...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO PLUNGE INTO THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL LEAVE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INVERSIONS SO
LOW...ONLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AS 85H RIDGES MOVE EASTWARD. STILL EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS WED...BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AGAIN...WELL BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
BIT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PD...ALTHOUGH PREFER GEFS/NAEFS FOR TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES.
A WK COLD FRONT WL MOVE ACRS THE RGN THU NT...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE
IS CONFINED WELL TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE A FEW SHSN IN NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT DEPTH OF CLOUDS TO KEEP
ACTIVITY MINIMAL...SO KEPT ONLY LOW CHC POPS N OF PIT. HIGH PRES
BLDS IN SAT BEFORE ANOTHER WK FRONT PASSES THROUGH SAT NT...AGAIN
WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGH PRES RIDGES BACK IN MON.
TEMPS WL AVG BLW NORMAL MOST OF THE PD. OPERATIONAL MODELS WARM
THINGS UP MON...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. STAYED CLOSER TO
COOLER ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH RECENT RAP NAM
AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW JETSTREAK-RELATED COLD FRONTAL BAND OF
LIGHT IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH 13Z.
POSTFRONTAL COLD POOL COUPLED WITH LAKE-MOISTENED WEST TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION...BE IT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS SURFACE MIXED LAYER WILL BE CAPPED AT 5 KFT AGL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 12 KTS THROUGH 14Z...THEN
BE MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD POOL MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE MAY PROMOTE A VFR BREAK THURSDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE NEXT ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
112 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FRONT IS SLOWLY CROSSING LAKE ERIE AND WILL CONTINUE IT ARDUOUS
TREK SOUTHWARD. MUCH OF THE LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW OVER EASTERN PA. LATEST HI-RES MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THIS NEW
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WV.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MADE IT INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE AREA BLANKETED WITH CLOUDS. THERE LIKELY BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER DO NOT THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS INVERSIONS DROP
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THE RIDGES AS
THERE IS AN OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STRONG CAA EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO WANE TONIGHT...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO PLUNGE INTO THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL LEAVE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INVERSIONS SO
LOW...ONLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WED. THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AS 85H RIDGES MOVE EASTWARD. STILL EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS WED...BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS AGAIN...WELL BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
BIT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PD...ALTHOUGH PREFER GEFS/NAEFS FOR TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES.
A WK COLD FRONT WL MOVE ACRS THE RGN THU NT...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE
IS CONFINED WELL TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE A FEW SHSN IN NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT DEPTH OF CLOUDS TO KEEP
ACTIVITY MINIMAL...SO KEPT ONLY LOW CHC POPS N OF PIT. HIGH PRES
BLDS IN SAT BEFORE ANOTHER WK FRONT PASSES THROUGH SAT NT...AGAIN
WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGH PRES RIDGES BACK IN MON.
TEMPS WL AVG BLW NORMAL MOST OF THE PD. OPERATIONAL MODELS WARM
THINGS UP MON...BUT ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. STAYED CLOSER TO
COOLER ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECENT SURFACE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH RECENT RAP NAM
AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW JETSTREAK-RELATED COLD FRONTAL BAND OF
LIGHT IFR SNOW WILL PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH 13Z.
POSTFRONTAL COLD POOL COUPLED WITH LAKE-MOISTENED WEST TO NORTHWEST
SURFACE LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT.
NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE SURFACE MIXED LAYER WILL BE CAPPED AT
5 KFT AGL WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARMER THAN
-10C. SO ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BE IT
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 12 KTS THROUGH 14Z...THEN
BE MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD POOL MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE MAY PROMOTE A VFR BREAK THURSDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE NEXT ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
513 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
OVERVIEW...NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEK. LIGHT SNOW EVENT
STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WHERE WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW.
STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN CONTINUES TO THE EAST AT 10 KTS SO TRIED
TO TREND TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY.
WIND HAS WEAKENED QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN
AND WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH 25 BELOW. BY SUNRISE A
RETURN FLOW COULD PRODUCE A 3-5 KT WIND AGAIN... SO WILL MAINTAIN
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN MOST AREAS AND SIMPLY TRIM THE ADVISORY
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED. MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SFC-MID LEVEL
TROUGH SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WHAT
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING THERE IS MOSTLY MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. MODELS SHOW THE
COLUMN SATURATES TO AT LEAST 700MB THRU THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL
CONSENSUS DOES HAVE SOME 500-300MB PV ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA CENTERED ON 00Z THU ALONG WITH SOME WEAK 700-500MB QG
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE MOISTURE SIGNAL...THE WEAK QG
CONVERGENCE...RATHER DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW FOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME
PV ADVECTION/DIVERGENCE ALOFT...MAINTAINED TREND OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW LIKELY. SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOK LIKE A
DUSTING UP TO ONE INCH. WITH SOME SFC-700MB MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC
FLOW/CONVERGENCE LINGERING LATER WED NIGHT...ADDED MENTION OF SCT
FLURRIES TO 06Z-12Z THU FCST GRIDS. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. LOWER LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WED NIGHT/MUCH
OF THU SENDS 925MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE -11C TO -14C RANGE FOR THU
AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOKING TO END UP NEARLY STEADY ON THU. WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...STRONG 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS MN/IA/WI THU NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE CONUS REMAINS IN A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MILDER NORTHERN
STREAM MIGRATES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...EXITING THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT BETWEEN 45-50N LATITUDE AND OCCASIONALLY MIXING
WITH AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY IN PLACE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
GENERALLY HANDLE THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT. AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BLEND OF
THE THE GFS/EC OFFER GUIDANCE FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP WORKING WEST-
TO-EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAS LED TO
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS BEEN INCHING EASTWARD INTO SWRN MN
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS STRATUS WITH SOME SHOWING IT REMAINING TO THE
WEST AND OTHERS SHOWING IT BUILDING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE RIDGE. WILL SIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BUILD
IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE GOOD REPRESENTATION OF
CURRENT CLOUD COVER THOSE MODELS HAVE AT THE PRESENT TIME.
KMSP...BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE STRATUS TO THE WEST CAN
MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS MSP AND WHEN IT WOULD ARRIVE. SIMPLE
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT TRENDS WOULDN/T BRING THE CLOUDS IN
UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THINK EASTWARD EXPANSION WILL
ACCELERATE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE SOUTH SO FAVORED TIMING OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND OF THE RAP MODEL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD SATURATION BETWEEN 020-030...SO INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR CONDITIONS/-SN POSSIBLE. WSW WINDS 4 TO 8 KTS.
THU...MVFR CEILINGS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 8 TO 12 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-
TODD-WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
CLF/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1201 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 836 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES AT 8 PM HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS WRN MN...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND WRN WI. THE RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER WRN MN ATTM AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING SEWD TO SCTRL
MN BY DAWN.
A BANK OF STRATUS OVER SD HAS INCHED ITS WAY EWD TO THE MN STATE
LINE. TEMPERATURES WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES OVER ERN SD AS THIS
STRATUS MOVED OVERHEAD. THUS...COULD SEE TEMPS MODERATE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR WRN MN AS THIS STRATUS MOVES IN. JUST A BIT
FURTHER EAST...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DIRECTLY
UNDER THE RIDGE AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO
20 BELOW IN MANY PLACES. WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST ELEVATED ENOUGH
OVER WRN WI TO PREVENT FROM REACHING 10 BELOW. THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF THE METRO WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW THERE.
WIND HAS WEAKENED QUITE A BIT IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND THERE
ARE DOUBTS THAT WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS WILL REACH 25 BELOW.
HOWEVER...BY DAWN A RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN WITH WINDS REACHING 5 KTS
AGAIN. WITH SUCH COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH
WIND TO OCCASIONALLY REACH WIND CHILLS OF 25 BELOW SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 257 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012/
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY...WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE THAWING MARK FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE TWO MAIN CHALLENGES WERE LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AND HOW TO BEST CONVEY THE LIGHT PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY. FIRST OF ALL...TONIGHTS LARGE SCALE SET UP IS IDEAL FOR
NOCTURNAL COOLING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND AMPLE SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE COULD SEE VALUES AROUND -25F OVERNIGHT. THE
ONE CAVEAT...ASIDE FROM THE LIGHT WINDS...IS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE DOWNSTREAM CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL HOLD UP TEMPERATURES IF THEY MOVE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...BUT DID NOT CANCEL ANY OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...AND IT IS NEW YEARS EVE. AFTER A CHILLY DRY
TUESDAY...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD A BROAD AREA OF UPWARD
FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION
WITH WEAK LIFT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY. LIQUID AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS OR SO...BUT RATIOS SHOULD BE NEAR 20:1. THEREFORE HAVE
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO A INCH FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS. THE UPSTREAM WAVE BREAKING TO THE
NORTH...AND STRONG ZONAL JET ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
SHEAR OUT THIS SYSTEM...SO IT WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REGION. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS...SINCE IT WILL SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS SINCE MEASURABLE PRECIP IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
ACROSS THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT LEE
SIDE WARMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. H900 TEMPERATURES OF +3 TO +5C WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MITIGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOW MELT...BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE 32F MARK. A
FEW WEAK WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST DRY.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAS LED TO
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS BEEN INCHING EASTWARD INTO SWRN MN
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS STRATUS WITH SOME SHOWING IT REMAINING TO THE
WEST AND OTHERS SHOWING IT BUILDING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE RIDGE. WILL SIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BUILD
IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE GOOD REPRESENTATION OF
CURRENT CLOUD COVER THOSE MODELS HAVE AT THE PRESENT TIME.
KMSP...BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER THE STRATUS TO THE WEST CAN
MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS MSP AND WHEN IT WOULD ARRIVE. SIMPLE
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT TRENDS WOULDN/T BRING THE CLOUDS IN
UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THINK EASTWARD EXPANSION WILL
ACCELERATE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE SOUTH SO FAVORED TIMING OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND OF THE RAP MODEL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD SATURATION BETWEEN 020-030...SO INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR CONDITIONS/-SN POSSIBLE. WSW WINDS 4 TO 8 KTS.
THU...MVFR CEILINGS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 8 TO 12 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
RICE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JRB/BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
126 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED BUT
OVER ONEIDA, ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES, 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
ORGANIZED LK BAND HAS DROPPED INTO NRN ONEIDA CNTY ATTM, JUST AHD
OF THE SFC FRONT. KTYX VWP INDICATES FLOW IS ALIGNED FM 3KFT-9KFT
OUT OF THE WEST AND THIS ACCNTS FOR THE MORE ORGANIZED NATURE OF
THE BAND. THINKING IS THAT AS CDFNT DROPS THRU THE REGION, BAND WL
BCM MORE DISORGANIZED WITH MINIMAL ACCUMS EXPECTED. HV UPDATED
HRLY POPS AND WX GRIDS TO ACCNT FOR THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
ADJUSTED HRLY T/TD VALUES.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
940 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. LATEST RADAR DATA
SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THIS EVENING WITH SNOW JUST BEGINNING HERE AT THE AIRFIELD. IN ALL
ACTUALITY...FAIRLY DECENT FORCING FOR ONGOING SNOWFALL AS REGION
RESIDES UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 200+ KT UPPER JETSTREAK TO
OUR SOUTH. THE 00Z KPIT SOUNDING MEASURED 180 KTS AT ROUGHLY
230-MB WHICH MAY BE ONE OF THE STRONGER JETS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...A MID-LEVEL 500-MB JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO IS ALSO PROVIDING A
GLANCING BLOW WITH THE FCST AREA BECOMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE. AND IF THAT WERE
NOT ENOUGH...SFC FIELDS FROM THE RUC AND MSAS INDICATE A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHING FROM EASTERN OH.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN...WELL WE CAN EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS MAIN COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH.
LATEST LOOK STILL SHOWS THE FRONT RESIDING TO THE WEST OF BUFFALO
THIS EVENING WITH A NOTABLE TEMP INCREASE DETECTED DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT...SEVERAL SITES HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPS AS PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING FROPA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
APPROPRIATELY. FOLLOWING FROPA...WINDS WILL BECOME ALIGNED ON A
NORTHWESTERLY CONFIGURATION WHICH COMBINED WITH 850-MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO NEAR -14C BY 12Z TUE...WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY CHAOTIC IN NATURE...DEVELOPING BANDS WILL BE ON THE MOVE
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HRS WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE TIME
BEING.
7 PM UPDATE...
ONLY REAL CHANGE REQUIRED WAS TO DELAY SNOW INITIATION TIME AS
MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO
THIS HR. UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS FROM KBUF BEGINNING TO SHOW SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH OLEAN NOW
REPORTING LGT SNOW. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FRONT. ALOFT...LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERY LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT AS MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LAGGING WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
HURON. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SNOW SHWR
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFT EAST WITH TIME. FOLLOWING THEIR PASSAGE...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ALIGNED TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING. ASIDE FROM THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
AT 4 PM...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY THIS EVENING AS A SFC TROF OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO APPROACHES THE AREA WHILE MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE SFC TROF
STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO VEER BAND OF HEAVIER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. DUE TO
BAND SHIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME, SNOW ACCUMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
MINOR WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON AND
ONEIDA COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION JUST SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ACCUMS WELL LESS THAN AN
INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...FOLLOWING THE FRONT, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL
NY UNDER 300/310 LOW LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SFC
TROF DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK
SFC TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BRINGING A FAVORABLE
FLOW FOR THE EASTERN SHORE INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. WILL
INCREASE POPS HERE TO LIKELY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WEDNESDAY...SFC TROF WILL SWING THROUGH AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SFC HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR LES ACROSS NRN CWA
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH POSSIBLE GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION BUT
WITH FLOW CONTINUING TO VEER THIS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUM. BY
AFTERNOON, 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW PUSHING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CNTRL NY NORTH WHILE WEAKENING. ON THURSDAY, SFC TROF WILL
CROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE DAY BRINGING THE CHC FOR
SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN/WRN FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW SHOTS AT LIGHT SNOWS BUT
NO MAJOR STORMS IN THE OFFERING. FIRST SHOT AT SNOW COMES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS COLD PUSH WAS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE BUT IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE CORE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH INTO QUEBEC. STILL
850 TEMPS ON BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S/NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER OUR COLDER SECTIONS TO THE EAST.
DESPITE NORTHWEST WINDS A SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH DRY AIR BEING THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO SUGGEST TEMPS WARM UP A BIT SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS US LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MORE
SEASONABLE AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE GENERAL RESTRICTION CATEGORY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPSTATE NY TERMINALS WITH VFR OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PASS
QUICKLY THROUGH KRME AND INTO THE KSYR AREA PRIOR TO 09Z WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF LIGHT
FLURRIES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO KBGM AND
KITH. THE SNOW BAND BECOMES A BROAD PLUME OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING
DOWNWIND THROUGH KSYR-KITH-KBGM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DRYING
AND CONVECTIVE MIXING SHOULD HELP TO LIFT CIGS TO VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
MINOR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER DRYING
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW SNOW BAND TO RETRACT TOWARD THE LAKE AND BECOME
MORE OF A WEST-EAST INFLUENCE AGAIN THROUGH KSYR-KRME AFT 00Z WITH
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE MVFR. A RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
WINDS SW 5-15 KTS BECOME NW 10G15 KTS BY 15Z...CONTINUING UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN SPEEDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE NW.
OUTLOOK...
WED/WED NGT...OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR FOR NY TERMINALS IN SNOW SHOWERS.
THU THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRME/KSYR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1249 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED BUT
OVER ONEIDA, ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES, 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
ORGANIZED LK BAND HAS DROPPED INTO NRN ONEIDA CNTY ATTM, JUST AHD
OF THE SFC FRONT. KTYX VWP INDICATES FLOW IS ALIGNED FM 3KFT-9KFT
OUT OF THE WEST AND THIS ACCNTS FOR THE MORE ORGANIZED NATURE OF
THE BAND. THINKING IS THAT AS CDFNT DROPS THRU THE REGION, BAND WL
BCM MORE DISORGANIZED WITH MINIMAL ACCUMS EXPECTED. HV UPDATED
HRLY POPS AND WX GRIDS TO ACCNT FOR THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
ADJUSTED HRLY T/TD VALUES.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
940 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. LATEST RADAR DATA
SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THIS EVENING WITH SNOW JUST BEGINNING HERE AT THE AIRFIELD. IN ALL
ACTUALITY...FAIRLY DECENT FORCING FOR ONGOING SNOWFALL AS REGION
RESIDES UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 200+ KT UPPER JETSTREAK TO
OUR SOUTH. THE 00Z KPIT SOUNDING MEASURED 180 KTS AT ROUGHLY
230-MB WHICH MAY BE ONE OF THE STRONGER JETS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...A MID-LEVEL 500-MB JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO IS ALSO PROVIDING A
GLANCING BLOW WITH THE FCST AREA BECOMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE. AND IF THAT WERE
NOT ENOUGH...SFC FIELDS FROM THE RUC AND MSAS INDICATE A WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHING FROM EASTERN OH.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN...WELL WE CAN EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS MAIN COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH.
LATEST LOOK STILL SHOWS THE FRONT RESIDING TO THE WEST OF BUFFALO
THIS EVENING WITH A NOTABLE TEMP INCREASE DETECTED DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT...SEVERAL SITES HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPS AS PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING FROPA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
APPROPRIATELY. FOLLOWING FROPA...WINDS WILL BECOME ALIGNED ON A
NORTHWESTERLY CONFIGURATION WHICH COMBINED WITH 850-MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO NEAR -14C BY 12Z TUE...WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY CHAOTIC IN NATURE...DEVELOPING BANDS WILL BE ON THE MOVE
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HRS WHICH SHOULD KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE TIME
BEING.
7 PM UPDATE...
ONLY REAL CHANGE REQUIRED WAS TO DELAY SNOW INITIATION TIME AS
MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO
THIS HR. UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS FROM KBUF BEGINNING TO SHOW SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH OLEAN NOW
REPORTING LGT SNOW. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FRONT. ALOFT...LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERY LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT AS MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LAGGING WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
HURON. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SNOW SHWR
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFT EAST WITH TIME. FOLLOWING THEIR PASSAGE...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ALIGNED TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING. ASIDE FROM THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
AT 4 PM...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY THIS EVENING AS A SFC TROF OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO APPROACHES THE AREA WHILE MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE SFC TROF
STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NRN
CWA AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO VEER BAND OF HEAVIER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. DUE TO
BAND SHIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME, SNOW ACCUMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
MINOR WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON AND
ONEIDA COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION JUST SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ACCUMS WELL LESS THAN AN
INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...FOLLOWING THE FRONT, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL
NY UNDER 300/310 LOW LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SFC
TROF DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK
SFC TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BRINGING A FAVORABLE
FLOW FOR THE EASTERN SHORE INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. WILL
INCREASE POPS HERE TO LIKELY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WEDNESDAY...SFC TROF WILL SWING THROUGH AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SFC HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR LES ACROSS NRN CWA
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH POSSIBLE GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION BUT
WITH FLOW CONTINUING TO VEER THIS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUM. BY
AFTERNOON, 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW PUSHING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CNTRL NY NORTH WHILE WEAKENING. ON THURSDAY, SFC TROF WILL
CROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE DAY BRINGING THE CHC FOR
SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE NRN/WRN FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW SHOTS AT LIGHT SNOWS BUT
NO MAJOR STORMS IN THE OFFERING. FIRST SHOT AT SNOW COMES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS COLD PUSH WAS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE BUT IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE CORE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH INTO QUEBEC. STILL
850 TEMPS ON BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S/NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER OUR COLDER SECTIONS TO THE EAST.
DESPITE NORTHWEST WINDS A SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH DRY AIR BEING THE MAIN NEGATING FACTOR. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO SUGGEST TEMPS WARM UP A BIT SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS US LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MORE
SEASONABLE AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
VFR CONTINUES BUT IT WONT LAST WITH MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE
WSW AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SE FROM ONTARIO THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS AS CLOSE AS THE LAKE PLAIN AT FULTON AND ROCHESTER. BY 5Z
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NY SITES.
KAVP WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TUESDAY.
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE WILL PEAK 6 TO 9Z WITH THE FRONT. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AT RME AND SYR. AFTER THAT LAKE EFFECT
WILL KICK IN KEEPING THE MVFR GOING INTO TUE MORNING. AROUND 15Z
SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT WITH NW FLOW SYR MAY BE IN MVFR ALL DAY. REST
OF NY SITES MAY BE IN AND OUT OF MVFR DURING THE AFTN. INVERSION
LEVEL...MOISTURE AND DENDRITE LAYERS LOWER DURING THE AFTN SO THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.
SW FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO W AROUND 5Z...THEN NW AT 10 KTS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT TO WED NGT...OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR FOR NY TERMINALS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
THU THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRME/KSYR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
524 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KBJI...CURRENTLY (23Z) OVC006. 925MB WINDS
REMAIN DUE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND 21Z RAP INDICATES
THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 925MB WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY
(AFTER 12Z). 00Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL FORECAST KBJI MORE PESSIMISTIC
THAN 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST CLOUDS AND TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE. WILL STICK
PRETTY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO THE NORTHWEST JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE NOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SITES IN THE FAR
EASTERN FA. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND RIDGING STARTS TO REPLACE IT WINDS SHOULD STAY NW AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IN SOME PLACES LATE. THERE IS A CLEAR WEDGE
WORKING DOWN THRU EASTERN ND NOW SO IT SHOULD START OFF FAIRLY
CLEAR IN THE WEST WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE WARM
ADVECTION KICK IN TONIGHT WITH MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE DOUBT IT WILL BE COMPLETELY
CLEAR ANYWHERE TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE SOME THIN CIRRUS AROUND. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE EAST IN THE EVENING.
THU-SAT...THE RIDGING BUILDING IN WILL FLATTEN A BIT ON THU
LEAVING THE FA IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THU/FRI. SHOULD HAVE
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS ON THU AND FRI AS MILD AIR MOVES BACK IN
WHICH ARE GOOD FOR WARMING. ALSO SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SUN
WHICH IS A RARE COMBINATION FOR EARLY JAN. BY SAT ANOTHER WEAK
500MB WAVE MOVES BACK IN. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS WEAK
EVENT WHICH MAY JUST SPREAD A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK MILD SAT AS WELL.
LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-TUE)...
SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER FA OVER SECOND HALF OF WEEKEND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK HOWEVER ON THE SURFACE BOTH GFS/ECMWF KEEP LOW TRACK NORTH/EAST
OF FA KEEPING REGION IN WARM SECTOR AND NO REAL PUSH OF COLD AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH REMAINDER OF LONG TERM AND MINIMAL SNOW CHANCES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
640 PM EST WED JAN 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TONIGHT. CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES
THURSDAY NIGHT. TWO UPPER SHORT WAVES PASS THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO BE THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST.
SHOULD LOSE THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS...SO WILL DROP IN GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. SREF PICKING UP ON STRATUS CLIPPING OUR EXTREME
NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ON THE FAR EASTERN SLOPES IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEATING HAS ALLOWED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN...MOST PREVALENT
ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE UNDER INVERSION
PROVIDING FOR A DREARY DAY ACROSS SW VA WITH LOW CIGS AND SOME
FOG. WILL ALLOW STRATOCU TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SUN AS CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF RIDING JET FROM SW INVADES TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH LOW
STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS SE OH AND N WV PER RUC SOUNDINGS BUT
OTHER MDLS NOT REALLY SHOWING THIS. FOR TEMPS WILL HEDGE THAT
CIRRUS IS OPAQUE ENOUGH TO NOT HINDER FALL TOO MUCH. LOOKING AT
TEENS AND LWR 20S FOR MOST PART FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TOMORROW WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SW VA TOWARD DICKENSON CO WHERE LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGHS REBOUND SOME WITH EVERYONE
OUTSIDE OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE 30S. SOME CLDS MAY SNEAK INTO
SE OH TOWARD EVENING FROM AN APPROACHING CLIPPER TYPE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY PROGRESSIVE AND DRY PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE A MOISTURE
STARVED SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT PROMPTS
SMALL POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOSTLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THEN...A QUIET
PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE JUST
AFTER THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM CAN AFFECT US. LOOK FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...MODERATING CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDING CONTINUE TO INDICATE SATURATED SFC TO BARELY
BELOW MINUS 10C LEVEL...SUGGESTING GOOD CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST.
NORTHWEST BACKWARDS TRAJECTORIES FROM SUNDAY RETURNS FROM IL AND
WI...BRINGING MUCH COLD AIR...CAPABLE TO SQUEEZE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS...TO PRODUCE LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE PER SHALLOWER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WITH NO LAKE CONNECTION
BELOW MINUS 10C. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING BY EARLY
MONDAY.
TWEAKED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ACCOUNTING FOR
CLOUD COVER AND GFS H850 COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL CLEARING TONIGHT OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL. PERRY/MORGAN COUNTIES COULD SEE
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT GIVING MVFR...BUT NOT
FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT PKB/HTS TERMINALS. EAST SLOPE OF
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
AFFECTING EKN.
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCUMULUS/MVFR MAY REACH THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
608 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
AN END TO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
DRIZZLE / FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED FOR THE CWA...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THE RADAR SCREENS HAVE FILLED IN WITH VERY LIGHT ECHOES
(NOT JUST ON KILN...BUT ALSO ON KIND AND THE NEARBY TDWR SITES).
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE ALSO DEPICTED PATCHY-LOOKING LIGHT ECHOES IN
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THESE
ECHOES ARE AN INDICATION OF A MIXTURE OF FLURRIES AND DRIZZLE. THE
GRIDS WILL THUS TRANSITION QUICKLY THIS MORNING FROM SNOW TO A
FLURRY/DZ OR FLURRY/FZDZ MIX.
ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES IN FORECASTING DZ/FZDZ IS CERTAINLY
PRESENTING ITSELF THIS MORNING...AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AT TEMPS
COLDER THAN -10C TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF ICE CRYSTALS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DRYING ABOVE 700MB. RAP/NAM RH PLOTS
AT -10C SHOW A RATHER EXTREME DRY PUNCH MOVING ENE OUT OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA...WITH RH VALUES BELOW 5 PERCENT. DESPITE THIS...MANY OF
THE OBSERVATIONS ARE KEEPING -SN AS THE PREVAILING WEATHER TYPE.
BASED ON EYEWITNESS OBSERVATIONS AT NWS ILN...CURRENT
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF VERY SMALL CRYSTALS (STILL
ICE...BUT NOT A TYPICAL SNOWFLAKE).
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WEAK ASCENT...TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING...AND APPARENT MIXING WITH SNOW...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM FZDZ ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NOWHERE TO GO UNDER AN
INVERSION. ANY EROSION TO THE CLOUD BASE WILL COME LATE IN THE DAY
OR TONIGHT. WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT...AND LITTLE TO NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES WILL GO ALMOST NOWHERE TODAY FROM THE
CURRENT VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
THIS NARROW RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A
STACKED TROUGH (AND EVENTUAL SURFACE LOW) PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER AND LARGER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF ON FRIDAY.
WITH THE CHILLY STARTING POINT AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...NOT
TO MENTION THE SNOW PACK OVER THE REGION...SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS
ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TONIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE MIXING WILL OCCUR UNDER AN INVERSION...AND
THE AXIS OF COLDEST 925MB TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE
CWA. THROUGH BOTH OF THESE PERIODS...THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY
LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE ECMWF FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS GOING AS LOW AS 1 DEGREE IN DARKE COUNTY.
THE COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY EVENING...GENERALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70. AN ARGUMENT
COULD BE MADE THAT ONLY FLURRIES WILL BE EXPERIENCED THIS FAR
SOUTH...SO THIS IS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY OR ANYTHING THAT WILL
CAUSE MUCH OF AN IMPACT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE CWA AT THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH...AND STILL FAR AWAY FROM
ANY LEGITIMATE WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF...GFS AND CMC ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...BUT THINK A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
AREAS...PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE...WILL GO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH SHOWING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME LOW
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. FORECAST DILEMMA THIS MORNING HAS BEEN WHETHER TO INCLUDE
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE TAFS. THE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
THE CURRENT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE TAF SITES EALRY THIS
MORNING. THEY HAD BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT SINCE STRONGER ECHOES
ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR...AND OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING
SNOW...THE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY (SANS
KCVG). CURRENT PCPN LOOKS TO MOVE OUT FAIRLY SOON SO WILL MAKE A
LAST MINUTE DECISION ON HOW LONG TO KEEP PCPN AT ANY GIVEN TAF
SITE.
OTHERWISE...FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR WILL BRING VSBYS BACK TO
VFR...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH CIGS MVFR. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO EVENTUALLY SCOUR OUT/ERODE OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
416 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
AN END TO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
DRIZZLE / FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED FOR THE CWA...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THE RADAR SCREENS HAVE FILLED IN WITH VERY LIGHT ECHOES
(NOT JUST ON KILN...BUT ALSO ON KIND AND THE NEARBY TDWR SITES).
RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE ALSO DEPICTED PATCHY-LOOKING LIGHT ECHOES IN
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THESE
ECHOES ARE AN INDICATION OF A MIXTURE OF FLURRIES AND DRIZZLE. THE
GRIDS WILL THUS TRANSITION QUICKLY THIS MORNING FROM SNOW TO A
FLURRY/DZ OR FLURRY/FZDZ MIX.
ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES IN FORECASTING DZ/FZDZ IS CERTAINLY
PRESENTING ITSELF THIS MORNING...AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AT TEMPS
COLDER THAN -10C TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF ICE CRYSTALS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DRYING ABOVE 700MB. RAP/NAM RH PLOTS
AT -10C SHOW A RATHER EXTREME DRY PUNCH MOVING ENE OUT OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA...WITH RH VALUES BELOW 5 PERCENT. DESPITE THIS...MANY OF
THE OBSERVATIONS ARE KEEPING -SN AS THE PREVAILING WEATHER TYPE.
BASED ON EYEWITNESS OBSERVATIONS AT NWS ILN...CURRENT
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF VERY SMALL CRYSTALS (STILL
ICE...BUT NOT A TYPICAL SNOWFLAKE).
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WEAK ASCENT...TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING...AND APPARENT MIXING WITH SNOW...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM FZDZ ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NOWHERE TO GO UNDER AN
INVERSION. ANY EROSION TO THE CLOUD BASE WILL COME LATE IN THE DAY
OR TONIGHT. WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT...AND LITTLE TO NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES WILL GO ALMOST NOWHERE TODAY FROM THE
CURRENT VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
THIS NARROW RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A
STACKED TROUGH (AND EVENTUAL SURFACE LOW) PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER AND LARGER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF ON FRIDAY.
WITH THE CHILLY STARTING POINT AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...NOT
TO MENTION THE SNOW PACK OVER THE REGION...SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS
ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TONIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE MIXING WILL OCCUR UNDER AN INVERSION...AND
THE AXIS OF COLDEST 925MB TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE
CWA. THROUGH BOTH OF THESE PERIODS...THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY
LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE ECMWF FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS GOING AS LOW AS 1 DEGREE IN DARKE COUNTY.
THE COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY EVENING...GENERALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70. AN ARGUMENT
COULD BE MADE THAT ONLY FLURRIES WILL BE EXPERIENCED THIS FAR
SOUTH...SO THIS IS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY OR ANYTHING THAT WILL
CAUSE MUCH OF AN IMPACT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE CWA AT THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH...AND STILL FAR AWAY FROM
ANY LEGITIMATE WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF...GFS AND CMC ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...BUT THINK A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
AREAS...PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE...WILL GO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH SHOWING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME LOW
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. A QUICK INJECTION OF WAA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...ENDING
BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. THE SNOW WILL BRING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
THEREAFTER...VSBYS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AS THE
MAIN PCPN COMES TO AN END THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING
DRIZZLE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT SHOW MUCH LIFT
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO WILL NOT PLACE IN THE TAFS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR WILL BRING VSBYS BACK TO VFR...BUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH CIGS MVFR...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING BELOW 2000 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO EVENTUALLY
SCOUR OUT/ERODE OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1111 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE REDUCED BUT MAYBE NOT AS LOW AS
EARLIER THIS EVENING. FZDZ WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING... WHILE SOME SNOW FLURRIES MAY ALSO OCCUR IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012/
DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
STEADILY FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH SURFACE FREEZING LINE NOW
FROM ABOUT MIDFORD TO ALTUS TO CROWELL TX. SOME WEAK ECHOES
PERSIST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE/FRSG
DRIZZLE. THUS WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVY IN PLACE AS IS.
ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED EWD WITH LEAD WAVE
EARLIER TODAY...MODELS SHOW INCREASING LIFT AND MID LEVEL
MOISTENING WITH IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH W TX. HRRR THE MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH ANYTHING THAT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES BEYOND THE FIRST
PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 30 33 23 40 / 20 10 10 10
HOBART OK 24 32 20 40 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 31 39 23 40 / 10 10 10 10
GAGE OK 19 29 16 38 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 26 32 18 42 / 20 10 10 10
DURANT OK 36 43 27 42 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-
012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ004-005-
009-010.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
02/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1012 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012
.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
STEADILY FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH SURFACE FREEZING LINE NOW
FROM ABOUT MIDFORD TO ALTUS TO CROWELL TX. SOME WEAK ECHOES
PERSIST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE/FRSG
DRIZZLE. THUS WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVY IN PLACE AS IS.
ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED EWD WITH LEAD WAVE
EARLIER TODAY...MODELS SHOW INCREASING LIFT AND MID LEVEL
MOISTENING WITH IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH W TX. HRRR THE MOST
BULLISH WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH ANYTHING THAT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES BEYOND THE FIRST
PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 40 30 33 23 / 30 20 10 10
HOBART OK 42 24 32 20 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 48 31 39 23 / 20 10 10 10
GAGE OK 36 19 29 16 / 40 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 36 26 32 18 / 70 20 10 10
DURANT OK 42 36 43 27 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-
012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ004-005-
009-010.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
02/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1051 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST/
CURRENTLY SEEING AN AREA OF STRATUS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE
MADE UPDATES TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE THIS STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...COVERING THE ENTIRE
CWA BY 09Z. WHERE STRATUS IS CURRENTLY...LOWS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY
BEEN REACHED. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA
HAVE A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO DROP...BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN AND
TEMPERATURES GO UP. RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON STRATUS EVOLUTION.
THUS HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO IT AND INCREASED CLOUDS THROUGH
TOMORROW. DONT SEE MUCH REASON WHY THE STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE...SEEMS MORE LIKELY IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
TOMORROW. CLEARING AROUND 12Z IN OUR WEST...AFTER 18Z IN THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AND NOT EXITING OUR EAST UNTIL AFTER 0Z.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS TOMORROW END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST GIVEN THE CLOUDS....BUT WILL LEAVE THEM AS IS FOR NOW...AS
WITH THE WARMER START WE STILL MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST HIGHS. /CHENARD
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS MUDDLED SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...A LOT OF MVFR STRATUS IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH ALL OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE TONIGHT. SO
THE MAIN QUESTION NOW IS WHEN WILL THE MVFR CONDITIONS ABATE ON
TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AS THE REST OF THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. HOWEVER THERE
CERTAINLY IS A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SD. THEREFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AT CHAMBERLAIN SD BY ABOUT 11Z...AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD FROM THERE
ALBEIT WEAKENING AND THUS KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD. WITH LOW
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF DUE WEST...THIS MAY SLOW
THE PROGRESSION OF THE EASTWARD MOVING CLEARING LINE ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH PUSH...EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...TO
ADVANCE THE CLEARING LINE TO THE I 29 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE KHON TAF SITE TO GO VFR IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...AND THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 255 PM CST/
FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON STRATUS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND WEATHER OR
NOT THAT WILL TRANSLATE EAST. THE REASON THIS IS SO IMPORTANT IS IT
WILL LIKELY HAVE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH
AREAS STAYING OUT OF THE STRATUS FALLING TO AROUND 10 BELOW WHILE
THOSE AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS SHOULD DROP TO ABOUT 5 ABOVE OR SO.
DRY ARCTIC AIR INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD HOLD THE STRATUS
AT BAY THROUGH MID EVENING BUT HAVE THE FEELING THAT IT WILL WORK
EASTWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 29 INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. THE AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE TO REMAIN IN THE CLEAR WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE...SO WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WILL THEN TRANSITION TO LOWS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE AND A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THE INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR THE TOUGHEST CALL BECAUSE IF STRATUS COMES IN AROUND SUNSET
LOWS WILL LIKELY BE 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ALSO NEED TO
WATCH THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH AS A FEW FLURRIES COULD WORK NORTH
TOWARDS SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE THIS EVENING BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THE DRY ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE FLAKES TO
THE SOUTH.
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND BRINGS IN MILDER
READINGS. RAISED HIGHS A BIT AND KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MIXED INTO
THE EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 20 IN THE EAST AND NEAR 30 IN THE
WEST. /08
A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE UPPER
WAVE WAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
IN BOTH CLOUDS AND WESTERLY WINDS. WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT THAT MOST PLACES WILL REACH LOWS IN THE
EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE
IN LATE IN THE NIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
FRONTOGENESIS OR EVEN WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT RELIES
ENTIRELY ON THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. ALL MODELS SHOW THAT THE DYNAMICS
REALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SPLIT WITH SOME ENERGY DIVING INTO
NEBRASKA AND THE REST STAYING CLOSER TO I94. AS A RESULT...WHILE WE
EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES WITH THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW REMAINS
LOW...50 PERCENT OR LESS. AND FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL...IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND LIKELY LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING
IN ON NW WINDS...LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS COLD AIR MOVES IN EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THIS COLD AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG AND WARMING WILL
ALREADY MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH WEAK EARLY JANUARY SUN...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
10 DEGREES EAST OF THE JAMES...BUT SHOULD APPROACH 20 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
QUICK DROP FOR 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND THEN RISING TEMPERATURES AS
WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE ECMWF...GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE. ALL AGREE THAT A LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE CWA. WHILE A WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST IN THE NW FLOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...IT WILL
BRING ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD AIR BY
SUNDAY. THE ONLY QUESTION REALLY IS HOW MUCH SNOW COVER INHIBITS
MIXING AND WARMING DURING THE DAY. THE SNOWPACK...WHILE FROM 4 TO
10 INCHES...IS FAIRLY DRY AND WITH A LONG ENOUGH WARM PERIOD COULD
BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED BY MONDAY. FOR NOW STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE 20S AND 30S. HAVE THE WARMEST DAY
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR MONDAY. IF SNOWCOVER DISAPPEARS FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...HIGHS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BE ANOTHER 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER./SCHUMACHER
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR IAZ002-003-014-022.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1014 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST/
CURRENTLY SEEING AN AREA OF STRATUS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE
MADE UPDATES TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE THIS STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...COVERING THE ENTIRE
CWA BY 09Z. WHERE STRATUS IS CURRENTLY...LOWS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY
BEEN REACHED. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA
HAVE A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO DROP...BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN AND
TEMPERATURES GO UP. RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON STRATUS EVOLUTION.
THUS HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO IT AND INCREASED CLOUDS THROUGH
TOMORROW. DONT SEE MUCH REASON WHY THE STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE...SEEMS MORE LIKELY IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
TOMORROW. CLEARING AROUND 12Z IN OUR WEST...AFTER 18Z IN THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AND NOT EXITING OUR EAST UNTIL AFTER 0Z.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS TOMORROW END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST GIVEN THE CLOUDS....BUT WILL LEAVE THEM AS IS FOR NOW...AS
WITH THE WARMER START WE STILL MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST HIGHS. /CHENARD
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 255 PM CST/
FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON STRATUS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND WEATHER OR
NOT THAT WILL TRANSLATE EAST. THE REASON THIS IS SO IMPORTANT IS IT
WILL LIKELY HAVE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH
AREAS STAYING OUT OF THE STRATUS FALLING TO AROUND 10 BELOW WHILE
THOSE AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS SHOULD DROP TO ABOUT 5 ABOVE OR SO.
DRY ARCTIC AIR INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD HOLD THE STRATUS
AT BAY THROUGH MID EVENING BUT HAVE THE FEELING THAT IT WILL WORK
EASTWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 29 INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. THE AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE TO REMAIN IN THE CLEAR WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE...SO WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WILL THEN TRANSITION TO LOWS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE AND A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THE INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR THE TOUGHEST CALL BECAUSE IF STRATUS COMES IN AROUND SUNSET
LOWS WILL LIKELY BE 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ALSO NEED TO
WATCH THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH AS A FEW FLURRIES COULD WORK NORTH
TOWARDS SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE THIS EVENING BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THE DRY ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE FLAKES TO
THE SOUTH.
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND BRINGS IN MILDER
READINGS. RAISED HIGHS A BIT AND KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MIXED INTO
THE EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 20 IN THE EAST AND NEAR 30 IN THE
WEST. /08
A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE UPPER
WAVE WAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
IN BOTH CLOUDS AND WESTERLY WINDS. WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT THAT MOST PLACES WILL REACH LOWS IN THE
EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE
IN LATE IN THE NIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
FRONTOGENESIS OR EVEN WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT RELIES
ENTIRELY ON THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. ALL MODELS SHOW THAT THE DYNAMICS
REALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SPLIT WITH SOME ENERGY DIVING INTO
NEBRASKA AND THE REST STAYING CLOSER TO I94. AS A RESULT...WHILE WE
EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES WITH THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW REMAINS
LOW...50 PERCENT OR LESS. AND FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL...IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND LIKELY LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING
IN ON NW WINDS...LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS COLD AIR MOVES IN EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THIS COLD AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG AND WARMING WILL
ALREADY MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH WEAK EARLY JANUARY SUN...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
10 DEGREES EAST OF THE JAMES...BUT SHOULD APPROACH 20 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
QUICK DROP FOR 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND THEN RISING TEMPERATURES AS
WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE ECMWF...GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE. ALL AGREE THAT A LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE CWA. WHILE A WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST IN THE NW FLOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...IT WILL
BRING ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD AIR BY
SUNDAY. THE ONLY QUESTION REALLY IS HOW MUCH SNOW COVER INHIBITS
MIXING AND WARMING DURING THE DAY. THE SNOWPACK...WHILE FROM 4 TO
10 INCHES...IS FAIRLY DRY AND WITH A LONG ENOUGH WARM PERIOD COULD
BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED BY MONDAY. FOR NOW STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE 20S AND 30S. HAVE THE WARMEST DAY
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR MONDAY. IF SNOWCOVER DISAPPEARS FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...HIGHS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BE ANOTHER 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER./SCHUMACHER
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF THE I 29
CORRIDOR FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER ALONG AND WEST OF I
29...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC. THERE ARE GENERALLY FOUR
LAYERS OF CLOUDS. ONE IS AROUND 8000 FEET AGL EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SD. ANOTHER IS NEAR 3000 FEET AGL IN
EAST CENTRAL SD...ARCHING SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF KFSD. A THIRD
DECK IS CURRENTLY NEAR 2200 FEET AGL IN THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE LAST DECK OF AROUND 1500 FEET IS
EVIDENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. FURTHERMORE...THE IR VIS/FOG CURVE SHOW
THAT KHON AND KMHE ARE ACTUALLY ON THE VERY EDGE OF THE 2200 FOOT
DECK WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SITES. WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE ARE THE KEY...AND MAINLY FOLLOWED THE RUC13 FOR GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE THE KFSD AND KHON TAF SITES SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AT TIMES WILL PROBABLY
BE VFR NEAR 8000 FEET DEPENDING ON EXACT MOVEMENT OF THE MVFR DECK.
KSUX MAY BE IN A SWEET SPOT...TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE IMPACTED BY THE
SOUTH DAKOTA STRATUS...AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BE IMPACTED BY THE UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THAT SAID...WINDS OFF THE SURFACE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING...SO AM CONCERNED THAT
SOME STRATUS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO KSUX AS TUESDAY
MORNING PROGRESSES. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS OFF
THE SURFACE ALSO OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE KFSD AND KHON TAF
SITES...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL SCATTER OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...AGAIN DUE TO THE ABUNDANT STRATUS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. /MJF
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR IAZ002-003-014-022.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVN DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
CIGS IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS IMPROVEMENT IS NOT LIKELY TO EXTEND
FURTHER INLAND TO UTS OR CXO. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST AT THE COASTAL COASTAL TERMINALS AS THEY REMAIN ON THE
BACK EDGE OF A LARGE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDING OFF SHORE.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE MVFR AFTER 01Z THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HOUSTON TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT OTHER TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HEAVIER PRECIP HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT BEYOND 20NM. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THOUGH SLOWLY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LIFT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY NEARS EXPECT THE PRECIP TO SHIFT EAST AND LIGHTEN.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT MAY
BECOME BROKEN THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WITH MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS. THE LIGHT PRECIP AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES. WILL LIKELY DO AN UPDATE AROUND 1130 OR NOON TO
CLEAR OUT PRECIP IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
AS OF 1005 AM THIS MORNING GALVESTON HAS HAD A RECORD SETTING 3.99"
OF RAIN AND IS STILL FALLING THOUGH LIGHTER NOW.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013/
UPDATE...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE PARTICULARLY WELL THIS MORNING SO
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. WENT WITH A GFS/RAP BLEND. AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN/TSRA ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THIS WILL LEAVE JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE REST OF SE TX. THE RAP MASS FIELDS KEEPS
MOST OF THE RAIN AWAY FROM AREA TAF SITES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE COAST WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT STILL LAGGING A FEW
HOURS BEHIND. AM EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE THE OTHER ISSUE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN LIFR CIGS THROUGH
18Z AND THEN SHOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS BY MID AFTN. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013/
DISCUSSION...
IT IS GOOD TO SEE RAIN ON THE RADAR ACROSS SE TX AS WE HEAD INTO
THE NEW YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE COLLEGE STATION MAY BE THE ONLY
CLIMATE SITE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE YEAR WITH
HOUSTON IAH...HOUSTON HOU AND GALVESTON ALL SHOWING RAINFALL
DEFICITS TO END THE YEAR. THE OTHER CLIMATE NOTE IS THAT 2012
SHOULD GO DOWN AS THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR HOUSTON. SEE MORE
DETAILS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
CURRENTLY HAVE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW LA
INTO SE TX AND ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST. MOST OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
INCLUDING GALVESTON IS AND BOLIVAR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH STALLED ACROSS THE HOUSTON AREA. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SW WITH SW JET FLOW FROM BIG
BEND OF TX TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET
OR RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SHOULD MOVE OVER TX TODAY AND WED BASED
ON SHORT RANGE MODELS. OVERALL THE SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. BASED
ON 00Z MODEL SUITE THINK MAJORITY OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OFF THE
COAST SO TAILORED POPS CLOSER TO THAT THINKING. THIS MEANS KEEPING
20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH JET FLOW REMAINING SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LIKELY
HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WHICH WITH COOLER AIRMASS WILL KEEP
TEMPS A GOOD 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DECIDED TO SHIFT SOME 20 POPS
INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING PAST THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCES A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCEBUT
WHILE THERE MAY BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR PRECIP...NOT SURE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO
THE AREA AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO CREEP UP
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED GULF MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
UNTIL NEXT TUE.
39
MARINE...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT LAGGED BEHIND...AND AT 2 AM THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM LUFKIN TO COLLEGE STATION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH
AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST BETWEEN 11-13Z. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS
OVER THE GULF. AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH 21Z AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED LONGER WITH THE AFTN UPDATE.
AN SCEC WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE BAYS TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND SCA/SCEC FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. TIDES ARE ABOVE NORMAL BUT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LOWER TIDE LEVELS BY AFTERNOON AND TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. 43
CLIMATE...
NO BIG SURPRISE WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES. DECEMBER 2012 WAS
VERY WARM...AVERAGING 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE 30 YEAR
NORMALS. 2012 WILL ALSO HAVE THE DISTINCTION OF BEING THE WARMEST
YEAR ON RECORD FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON. THE UNOFFICIAL 2012
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON WAS 72.1 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 71.9 DEGREES IN 1962.
FWIW...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN 2011 WAS 71.8 DEGREES WHICH WAS
THE THIRD WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD.
COLLEGE STATION HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN 2012 OF 71.6 DEGREES
WHICH TIES LAST YEAR FOR THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD.
THE CITY OF GALVESTON ALSO RECORDED IT`S WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMP OF 73.9 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS WARMEST YEAR WAS 72.6
DEGREES BACK IN 2006. THE SIX WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD FOR
GALVESTON HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 1994.
HOBBY AIRPORT ALSO RECORDED IT`S WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE
ANNUAL TEMP WAS 72.6 DEGREES BESTING LAST YEARS RECORD VALUE OF
72.4 DEGREES. THE EIGHT WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD HAVE OCCURRED
SINCE 1998.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 36 49 34 52 34 / 0 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 41 50 37 54 36 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 46 51 43 53 42 / 30 20 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1201 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS BELOW A STRONG INVERSION. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING...BUT
SHOULD FILL BACK IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND LINGER FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
SHOULD BRING DECREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS.
&&
.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS
INDUCING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO WORK IN
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...THE REMAINING PRECIP HAS NOW
SHIFTED EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO TEMPLE. EXPECT
THE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER THIS MORNING...WE RECEIVED A FEW
REPORTS OF VERY BRIEF AND LIGHT SLEET PELLETS FALLING WITH THE
RAIN. THIS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND TEXAS TECH WRF
SUGGEST PARTS /IF NOT ALL/ OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THE MAIN DIAGNOSTIC MODELS WANT
TO SCATTER MUCH OF THE REGION OUT THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THIS IS OFTEN A SITUATION WHERE
CLOUDS DO REMAIN AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAY
MUCH COOLER. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA SHOULD ALSO WORK
AGAINST EROSION OF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS
MAY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
MOVING EAST. EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT VERY
HIGH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON IF AND WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BREAK...HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST THE SKIES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ALSO...ADJUSTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-20 DOWN A FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT
ADJUST TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. OVERALL..THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A
WARM-UP OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT IN
THE WEST WHERE THINNING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013/
POSITIVE-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM ROCKIES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALOFT. ONE SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING NORTHEAST OUT
OF NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO
COLORADO AND KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WAS DRAPED
NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY FILTERING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
AREAS NORTH OF I-20.
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THIS MORNING WITH COLD AIRMASS
ONLY 1000-2000 FT DEEP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MORE SHALLOW THE
FURTHER SOUTH OF I-20 YOU GO. PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN THE MORE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
I-20/30 CORRIDORS. ALSO...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES.
WE EXPECT THE PATCHY DENSE FOG/RAIN/ DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE MAINLY
SOUTH OF A GREENVILLE/SULPHUR SPRINGS-GRANBURY-COMANCHE LINE THROUGH
MID-LATE MORNING. THIS WILL NOT INCLUDE THE DFW METRO AND POINTS
NORTH...PER AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA
WITH DEEPER MIXING TO OCCUR. MID-HIGH LEVEL RETURNS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING ON REGIONAL RADAR AND WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES... BUT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD FALL FROM THESE HIGH DECKS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE WELL
BEFORE REACHING THE SHALLOW AND SATURATED FRONTAL INVERSION BELOW
WITH VERY DRY AIR NOTED ON 00Z FWD SOUNDING JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. WILL NOT INSERT POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
OBSERVATIONS CAREFULLY AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID- UPPER
30S ACROSS THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO END ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO TRACKS
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE SURFACE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH HEADS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE ENSUING SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DEVELOPS RIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS
BY WEDNESDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT AND SHALLOW SURGES OF POLAR AIR BEING
REINFORCED ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH 50S IN
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE AREA REMAINING DRY AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN BOTH
THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR STREAMS MERGE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS ON LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS THIS
DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THIS PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
LOSE TOUCH WITH EACH OTHER ON SOLUTION HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 45 28 45 29 48 / 10 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 51 30 46 30 49 / 40 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 43 27 43 27 46 / 20 5 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 44 25 45 26 47 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 43 24 44 27 46 / 10 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 46 29 46 29 49 / 10 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 47 29 44 28 49 / 20 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 49 30 46 30 50 / 40 5 5 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 53 31 47 31 50 / 50 5 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 42 23 45 26 47 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1012 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
HEAVIER PRECIP HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT BEYOND 20NM. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THOUGH SLOWLY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LIFT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY NEARS EXPECT THE PRECIP TO SHIFT EAST AND LIGHTEN.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT MAY
BECOME BROKEN THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WITH MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS. THE LIGHT PRECIP AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES. WILL LIKELY DO AN UPDATE AROUND 1130 OR NOON TO
CLEAR OUT PRECIP IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
AS OF 1005 AM THIS MORNING GALVESTON HAS HAD A RECORD SETTING 3.99"
OF RAIN AND IS STILL FALLING THOUGH LIGHTER NOW.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013/
UPDATE...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE PARTICULARLY WELL THIS MORNING SO
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. WENT WITH A GFS/RAP BLEND. AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN/TSRA ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THIS WILL LEAVE JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE REST OF SE TX. THE RAP MASS FIELDS KEEPS
MOST OF THE RAIN AWAY FROM AREA TAF SITES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE COAST WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT STILL LAGGING A FEW
HOURS BEHIND. AM EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE THE OTHER ISSUE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN LIFR CIGS THROUGH
18Z AND THEN SHOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS BY MID AFTN. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013/
DISCUSSION...
IT IS GOOD TO SEE RAIN ON THE RADAR ACROSS SE TX AS WE HEAD INTO
THE NEW YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE COLLEGE STATION MAY BE THE ONLY
CLIMATE SITE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE YEAR WITH
HOUSTON IAH...HOUSTON HOU AND GALVESTON ALL SHOWING RAINFALL
DEFICITS TO END THE YEAR. THE OTHER CLIMATE NOTE IS THAT 2012
SHOULD GO DOWN AS THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR HOUSTON. SEE MORE
DETAILS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
CURRENTLY HAVE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW LA
INTO SE TX AND ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST. MOST OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
INCLUDING GALVESTON IS AND BOLIVAR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH STALLED ACROSS THE HOUSTON AREA. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SW WITH SW JET FLOW FROM BIG
BEND OF TX TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET
OR RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SHOULD MOVE OVER TX TODAY AND WED BASED
ON SHORT RANGE MODELS. OVERALL THE SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. BASED
ON 00Z MODEL SUITE THINK MAJORITY OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OFF THE
COAST SO TAILORED POPS CLOSER TO THAT THINKING. THIS MEANS KEEPING
20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH JET FLOW REMAINING SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LIKELY
HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WHICH WITH COOLER AIRMASS WILL KEEP
TEMPS A GOOD 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DECIDED TO SHIFT SOME 20 POPS
INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING PAST THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCES A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCEBUT
WHILE THERE MAY BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR PRECIP...NOT SURE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO
THE AREA AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO CREEP UP
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED GULF MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
UNTIL NEXT TUE.
39
MARINE...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT LAGGED BEHIND...AND AT 2 AM THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM LUFKIN TO COLLEGE STATION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH
AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST BETWEEN 11-13Z. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS
OVER THE GULF. AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH 21Z AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED LONGER WITH THE AFTN UPDATE.
AN SCEC WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE BAYS TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND SCA/SCEC FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. TIDES ARE ABOVE NORMAL BUT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LOWER TIDE LEVELS BY AFTERNOON AND TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. 43
CLIMATE...
NO BIG SURPRISE WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES. DECEMBER 2012 WAS
VERY WARM...AVERAGING 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE 30 YEAR
NORMALS. 2012 WILL ALSO HAVE THE DISTINCTION OF BEING THE WARMEST
YEAR ON RECORD FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON. THE UNOFFICIAL 2012
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON WAS 72.1 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 71.9 DEGREES IN 1962.
FWIW...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN 2011 WAS 71.8 DEGREES WHICH WAS
THE THIRD WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD.
COLLEGE STATION HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN 2012 OF 71.6 DEGREES
WHICH TIES LAST YEAR FOR THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD.
THE CITY OF GALVESTON ALSO RECORDED IT`S WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMP OF 73.9 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS WARMEST YEAR WAS 72.6
DEGREES BACK IN 2006. THE SIX WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD FOR
GALVESTON HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 1994.
HOBBY AIRPORT ALSO RECORDED IT`S WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE
ANNUAL TEMP WAS 72.6 DEGREES BESTING LAST YEARS RECORD VALUE OF
72.4 DEGREES. THE EIGHT WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD HAVE OCCURRED
SINCE 1998.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 36 49 34 52 / 50 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 41 50 37 54 / 80 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 46 51 43 53 / 90 30 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
949 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013
.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS
INDUCING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO WORK IN
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...THE REMAINING PRECIP HAS NOW
SHIFTED EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO TEMPLE. EXPECT
THE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER THIS MORNING...WE RECEIVED A FEW
REPORTS OF VERY BRIEF AND LIGHT SLEET PELLETS FALLING WITH THE
RAIN. THIS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND TEXAS TECH WRF
SUGGEST PARTS /IF NOT ALL/ OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THE MAIN DIAGNOSTIC MODELS WANT
TO SCATTER MUCH OF THE REGION OUT THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THIS IS OFTEN A SITUATION WHERE
CLOUDS DO REMAIN AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAY
MUCH COOLER. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA SHOULD ALSO WORK
AGAINST EROSION OF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS
MAY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
MOVING EAST. EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT VERY
HIGH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON IF AND WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
BREAK...HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST THE SKIES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ALSO...ADJUSTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-20 DOWN A FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT
ADJUST TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. OVERALL..THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A
WARM-UP OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT IN
THE WEST WHERE THINNING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
MEANWHILE A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL
SPRINKLES WAS BEING GENERATED BY A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AND PRECIPITATION MAY OCCASIONALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 5-6SM BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING. WILL LIKELY STICK WITH AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND BR AT ALL LOCATIONS UNTIL 15Z. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF TAF LOCATIONS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS
HAVE BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND SHOULD REMAIN AS SUCH...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT.
CEILINGS ARE MORE OF A CHALLENGE TODAY AS CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONDITIONS HAVE
SHOWN A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND THIS MORNING DUE TO COOLER DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH
LIGHT PRECIP AND VARYING CIGS...TAF SITES WILL MOST LIKELY
EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MVFR DECKS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE AREA OF IFR CIGS OVER NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED TO
THAT REGION. OTHERWISE WILL PLAN ON STICKING SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
30
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
AREA OBS INDICATING THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE REACHING THE
SURFACE THIS PAST HOUR...SO HAVE ADDED THAT WEATHER ELEMENT TO THE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MID MORNING...OR UNTIL THE
RICHER SW FEED OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013/
POSITIVE-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM ROCKIES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALOFT. ONE SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING NORTHEAST OUT
OF NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO
COLORADO AND KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WAS DRAPED
NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY FILTERING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
AREAS NORTH OF I-20.
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THIS MORNING WITH COLD AIRMASS
ONLY 1000-2000 FT DEEP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MORE SHALLOW THE
FURTHER SOUTH OF I-20 YOU GO. PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN THE MORE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
I-20/30 CORRIDORS. ALSO...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES.
WE EXPECT THE PATCHY DENSE FOG/RAIN/ DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE MAINLY
SOUTH OF A GREENVILLE/SULPHUR SPRINGS-GRANBURY-COMANCHE LINE THROUGH
MID-LATE MORNING. THIS WILL NOT INCLUDE THE DFW METRO AND POINTS
NORTH...PER AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA
WITH DEEPER MIXING TO OCCUR. MID-HIGH LEVEL RETURNS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING ON REGIONAL RADAR AND WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES... BUT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD FALL FROM THESE HIGH DECKS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE WELL
BEFORE REACHING THE SHALLOW AND SATURATED FRONTAL INVERSION BELOW
WITH VERY DRY AIR NOTED ON 00Z FWD SOUNDING JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. WILL NOT INSERT POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
OBSERVATIONS CAREFULLY AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID- UPPER
30S ACROSS THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO END ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO TRACKS
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE SURFACE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH HEADS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE ENSUING SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DEVELOPS RIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS
BY WEDNESDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT AND SHALLOW SURGES OF POLAR AIR BEING
REINFORCED ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH 50S IN
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE AREA REMAINING DRY AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN BOTH
THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR STREAMS MERGE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS ON LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS THIS
DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THIS PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
LOSE TOUCH WITH EACH OTHER ON SOLUTION HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 45 28 45 29 48 / 10 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 51 30 46 30 49 / 40 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 43 27 43 27 46 / 20 5 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 44 25 45 26 47 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 43 24 44 27 46 / 10 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 46 29 46 29 49 / 10 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 47 29 44 28 49 / 20 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 49 30 46 30 50 / 40 5 5 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 53 31 47 31 50 / 50 5 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 42 23 45 26 47 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
75/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
529 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE PARTICULARLY WELL THIS MORNING SO
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. WENT WITH A GFS/RAP BLEND. AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN/TSRA ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THIS WILL LEAVE JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE REST OF SE TX. THE RAP MASS FIELDS KEEPS
MOST OF THE RAIN AWAY FROM AREA TAF SITES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE COAST WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT STILL LAGGING A FEW
HOURS BEHIND. AM EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE THE OTHER ISSUE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN LIFR CIGS THROUGH
18Z AND THEN SHOW IMPROVEMNT TO VFR CONDS BY MID AFTN. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013/
DISCUSSION...
IT IS GOOD TO SEE RAIN ON THE RADAR ACROSS SE TX AS WE HEAD INTO
THE NEW YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE COLLEGE STATION MAY BE THE ONLY
CLIMATE SITE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE YEAR WITH
HOUSTON IAH...HOUSTON HOU AND GALVESTON ALL SHOWING RAINFALL
DEFICITS TO END THE YEAR. THE OTHER CLIMATE NOTE IS THAT 2012
SHOULD GO DOWN AS THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR HOUSTON. SEE MORE
DETAILS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
CURRENTLY HAVE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW LA
INTO SE TX AND ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST. MOST OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
INCLUDING GALVESTON IS AND BOLIVAR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH STALLED ACROSS THE HOUSTON AREA. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SW WITH SW JET FLOW FROM BIG
BEND OF TX TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET
OR RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SHOULD MOVE OVER TX TODAY AND WED BASED
ON SHORT RANGE MODELS. OVERALL THE SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER AIR SHOULD MVOE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAT AND THE COASTAL WATERS. BASED ON 00Z
MODEL SUITE THINK MAJORITY OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST
SO TAILORED POPS CLOSER TO THAT THINKING. THIS MEANS KEEPING 20/30
POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH JET FLOW REMAINING SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LIKELY
HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WHICH WITH COOLER AIRMASS WILL KEEP
TEMPS A GOOD 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DECIDED TO SHIFT SOME 20 POPS
INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING PAST THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCES A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF THE DISTRURBANCE
BUT WHILE THERE MAY BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR PRECIP...NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD
INTO THE AREA AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO
CREEP UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED GULF MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR UNTIL NEXT TUE.
39
MARINE...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT LAGGED BEHIND...AND AT 2 AM THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM LUFKIN TO COLLEGE STATION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH
AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST BETWEEN 11-13Z. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS
OVER THE GULF. AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH 21Z AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED LONGER WITH THE AFTN UPDATE.
AN SCEC WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE BAYS TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND SCA/SCEC FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. TIDES ARE ABOVE NORMAL BUT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LOWER TIDE LEVELS BY AFTERNOON AND TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. 43
CLIMATE...
NO BIG SURPRISE WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES. DECEMBER 2012 WAS
VERY WARM...AVERAGING 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE 30 YEAR
NORMALS. 2012 WILL ALSO HAVE THE DISTINCTION OF BEING THE WARMEST
YEAR ON RECORD FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON. THE UNOFFICIAL 2012
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON WAS 72.1 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 71.9 DEGREES IN 1962.
FWIW...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN 2011 WAS 71.8 DEGREES WHICH WAS
THE THIRD WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD.
COLLEGE STATION HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN 2012 OF 71.6 DEGREES
WHICH TIES LAST YEAR FOR THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD.
THE CITY OF GALVESTON ALSO RECORDED IT`S WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMP OF 73.9 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS WARMEST YEAR WAS 72.6
DEGREES BACK IN 2006. THE SIX WAMREST YEARS ON RECORD FOR GALVESTON
HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 1994.
HOBBY AIRPORT ALSO RECORDED IT`S WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE
ANNUAL TEMP WAS 72.6 DEGREES BESTING LAST YEARS RECORD VALU OF 72.4
DEGREES. THE EIGHT WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 1998.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 36 49 34 52 / 50 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 41 50 37 54 / 80 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 46 51 43 53 / 90 30 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
458 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE GULF
COAST REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EST TUESDAY...
AREA RADARS WERE SHOWING EASTERN EDGE OF LARGE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...ALTHOUGH AT
THE SURFACE NOT ALL OF THIS WAS REACHING THE GROUND. SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAINED WELL BE LOW CURRENT TEMPERATURES BUT WERE RISING
SLOWLY THROUGH THE 20S.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MODELS
KEEP BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA. ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CONFINED
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO BATH AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES.
LARGE OF BAND OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ELONGATED AXIS OF
VORTICITY. BEST LIFT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT THE SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND WILL CHANGE MUCH OF WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. BUFKIT WAS SHOWING ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
FOR ADEQUATE SEEDER- FEEDER PROCESS TO MAINTAIN SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
STAYED WITH COOLER GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ON THE TAIL END OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
LIMITED...IF ANY SATURATED LAYERS IN THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC
ZONE...SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. WILL ONLY HAVE LIMITED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND SETTLES OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN HINTING AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST TO REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE SHIFT SOUTH IN
MULTIPLES MODELS IN THE EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION SO THAT NO OR
VERY LITTLE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REACHES THE AREA. GIVEN THE
GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WILL NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OUR ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM ENTERS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT WE EXPECT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED
THESE...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THEM IN THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY.
THE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH CENTER SETTLING SOUTH AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
STORM MAY SPREAD MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EST MONDAY...
OVERALL MID DECK CANOPY CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
DRY AIR LIMITING BASES TO 8 KFT AND ABOVE. RADAR IS ALSO
INDICATING LIGHT RETURNS MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE FAR SW
MOUNTAINS INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVELS STILL VERY
DRY...DO NOT SEE MORE THAN LIGHT SPRINKLES OR A FEW SLEET PELLETS
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY
AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO SO MUCH DRY AIR AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
GIVEN A LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE SYSTEM. GUIDANCE ALSO
REMAINS A BIT WARMER PER LESS EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROVIDED BY
ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH EVEN THE LATEST RAP AND LOCAL WRF
SOLUTIONS QUITE DRY UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...EARLIER MODEL INIT REMAINS ALL OVER THE PLACE UNDER
SUCH A STRUNG OUT AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE SRN JET AND
LIKELY HAVING A HARD TIME IN WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIP ATTM. THUS HAVE
KEPT IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIP FOR MANY OF THE WESTERN SITES WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS AT KLWB/KBCB TOWARD DAWN BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. OTRW
INCLUDING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF PL MENTION AT LEAST AT THE
ONSET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WHILE LEAVING THINGS MAINLY VFR
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY SPOTTY -RA OUT EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY MORNING WITH A MUCH
BETTER PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS...AND LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SITES FROM KBCB WESTWARD WILL SEE MIXED
PRECIPITATION CHANGE TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
HOWEVER KLWB MAY GET STUCK AROUND FREEZING INTO THE AFTERNOON SO
MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE THE MIXED BAG THERE UNTIL PRECIP TAPERS
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. ON TUESDAY EVENING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING KLWB AND KBLF INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COULD EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SNOW FROM KBCB/KROA TO KLYH TUE NIGHT AS THE PRECIP ENDS.
OTRW APPEARS IFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY UNDER SLOWLY IMPROVING
VSBYS AS PRECIPS ENDS OVERNIGHT.
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH MAY BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO DAN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
925 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
925 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN BAND OF
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAINING ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS 1-2 HOUR BAND OF SNOW HAS PRODUCED JUST A
DUSTING OF SNOW WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING AS THE OVERALL LIFT WEAKENS TO THE EAST. CURRENT
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WHAT HAPPENS AS THE SNOW ENDS IS A TOUGHER QUESTION. IN THE REGION
WEST OF THE SNOW AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS AN AREA
WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS OCCURRING UNDER A SHARP INVERSION.
THIS HAS LED TO THE FORMATION OF A LOW CLOUD DECK AND SOME PATCHY
FOG THAT HAS MAINLY BEEN IN THE 1-4SM RANGE. THERE IS CONCERN THAT
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AS WELL AS THIS SATURATED
LAYER APPEARS TO BE JUST WARM ENOUGH THAT ICE PRODUCTION MAY NOT
BE OCCURRING. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH LOW LEVEL LIFT
THOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY KIND OF PRECIPITATION. MPX RECEIVED A FEW
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLIER IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
THREAT OF IT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING GOING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. MADE SOME CALLS TO COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENTS IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN THE LOWEST AND THEY
HAVE NOT HAD ANY ISSUES WITH ICING OUT THERE. SO...WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND JUST LEAVE SOME FLURRIES IN THERE WITH
THE LOWER CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST QUICKLY TONIGHT AND
APPEAR TO BE DOING SO FASTER THAN WHAT THE 02.22Z-03.01Z RAP HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING. CEILINGS WILL PICK UP ONCE THE WIND SHIFT COMES
THROUGH...SO ANY DRIZZLE THREAT WILL END AS THIS FEATURE COMES IN.
SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY INTO TOMORROW WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...
252 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
THE OVERALL WARMING TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE OFFING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...A CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SOMEWHERE NEAR CA OR THE BAJA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THAT SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...IT IS
LOOKING LIKE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM. IN FACT...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF IT WILL FALL AS RAIN. SO THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS
WATCHING.
&&
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
536 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
THE FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE LIGHT SNOW AND IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TOMORROW. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHICH HAS
ALREADY MOVED INTO RST...WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH ABOUT A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. CEILINGS
ARE BETWEEN 1-2KFT IN THIS SNOW BAND WITH VISIBILITY ONLY BRIEFLY
DROPPING DOWN TO 3SM. AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END...THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS THAT MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
IT WILL COINCIDE WITH MOVE WESTERLY WINDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS PERIOD
AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL OCCUR OR EVEN
REGISTER POST-SNOWFALL. MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR AT RST THAN LSE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 900FT TO
1200FT RANGE AND MORE BORDERLINE. AS NOTED IN THE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...ONCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15KT AND CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE UP TOWARD 1.5-2.5KFT. THESE MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR TO
BECOME FAIRLY SPORADIC AS WELL AS THERE ARE AS MANY REPORTS OF
3.5KFT CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AS THERE ARE MVFR
REPORTS. PLAYED IT PESSIMISTIC AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT THE
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ARE LIKELY SHORT LIVED. THERE MAY BE SOME OFF
AND ON FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD NOT
CAUSE ANY VISIBILITY LOWERINGS ON TOP OF WHERE THEY ALREADY ARE
DUE TO THE FOG/LIGHT DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
252 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
339 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
339 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING...LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND
WESTERN IA...DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER
MN/IA/WI EAST OF THE SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND SNOW COVER...TEMPS WERE FALLING BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
MN/WESTERN WI/NORTHERN IA FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS
WINTER SEASON. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI LIGHTER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED...WITH MOST WIND CHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE 0 TO -20
RANGE. WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A STRATUS DECK WAS SPREADING EAST
INTO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA.
MODELS AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL FOR THEIR 01.00Z RUNS.
SOLUTIONS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES VERY SIMILAR THRU THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD THIS CYCLE. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 01.00Z SHOWED THE
MODEL RUNS OF 30.00Z AND 31.00Z VERIFIED WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC...BUT WERE A BIT SLOW/STRONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE FEATURE SHEARING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOO WEAK/FAST WITH THE FEATURE ON THE OR COAST. SOMEWHAT BETTER
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BY GFS THIS CYCLE. TRENDS OF THE FEATURES
MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE AREAS SHORT-TERM
WEATHER. BETTER CONSISTENCY SEEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TODAY/TONIGHT THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF EARLIER RUNS...WITH A
MORE OPEN WAVE PASSING WED/WED NIGHT. MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS
MORE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY THU NIGHT/FRI. CHECK
OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL REASONABLE WITH THE SFC MASS
FIELDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS ACTUALLY DOING ABOUT AS WELL
AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
MN/NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING. PER WV IMAGERY ALL LOOKED GOOD
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS OVER NOAM/EASTERN PAC. HIGHER-RES
MODELS DOING BETTER WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS MN/IA/WI EARLY
THIS MORNING WHILE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS ON THE WARM SIDE.
OVERALL NO ONE FAVORITE MODEL AND WITH ALL SHOWING SIMILAR TREND
TOWARD A COMMON CONSENSUS OUT TO WED NIGHT/THU...FAVORED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...WHAT TO DO WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS AN
ISSUE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS ARE STAYING MOSTLY ABOVE THE -20 MARK. WITH
THE LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPS TRENDING COLDER MANY LOCATIONS. WITH THE
COLDER TEMPS...ANY WIND AT ALL THRU ABOUT 15Z WOULD SEND WIND CHILLS
BELOW -20. THUS WILL HANG ONTO ADVISORY FOR NOW. NEXT ISSUE IS THE
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM EASTERN SD. MODELS
BRING THIS MOISTURE INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
MORNING...ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE IT EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. TRENDED SKY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY/TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -5
TO -9C RANGE BY 12Z WED. THIS ALONG WITH SOME SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN
WILL KEEP TEMPS WARMER TONIGHT...EVEN AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FCST AREA ON WED. WHAT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING THERE
IS MOSTLY MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. MODELS SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATES TO AT LEAST 700MB THRU
THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SFC-MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES HAVE SOME 500-300MB PV ADVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED ON 00Z THU ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
700-500MB QG CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE MOISTURE SIGNAL...THE WEAK
QG CONVERGENCE...RATHER DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW FOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME
PV ADVECTION/DIVERGENCE ALOFT...MAINTAINED TREND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WED AFTERNOON AND
THE NORTHEAST 3/4 WED EVENING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOK LIKE A DUSTING UP TO A HALF
INCH. WITH SOME SFC-700MB MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW/CONVERGENCE
LINGERING LATER WED NIGHT...ADDED MENTION OF SCT FLURRIES TO 06Z-
12Z THU FCST GRIDS.
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU. LOWER LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WED NIGHT/MUCH OF THU SENDS 925MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE -11C
TO -14C RANGE FOR THU AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOKING TO END UP NEARLY
STEADY ON THU. WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...MDT/STRONG 925-850MB
WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS MN/IA/WI THU NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
PRESSURE GRADIENT/BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING AND STRENGTH OF
LOW LEVEL INVERSION...LOWS THU NIGHT MAY BE IN THE EVENING WITH
RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS TREND CAN BE ADDED TO FCST GRIDS
LATER AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
USING A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
NUMERICAL TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS TODAY THRU THU NIGHT. WITH
CLOUDS AND SOME GRADIENT WINDS FOR MIXING...DID LEAN TOWARD WARMER
OF GUIDANCE LOWS WED NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
339 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013
01.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
FRI/SAT AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI THEN A DEEPENING
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON SAT. SOME CONSENSUS FOR WEAK AND TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN BEFORE ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM...WEST/ NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. LONG-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SAT TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA...WITH MOISTURE ALSO TRENDING TO BE ON THE LIMITED
SIDE. PER MODEL CONSENSUS...LEFT SAT DRY. THE MONDAY SYSTEM ALSO
LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AT THIS TIME WITH BULK OF THE ENERGY PASSING
WELL NORTH OF THE FCST AREA AND SOURCE REGION FOR THE LOWER LEVEL
AIRMASS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. LEFT MON DRY AS WELL. WITH THE
POLAR JET SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR
BOTTLED UP IN NORTHERN/EASTERN CAN...TEMPS FOR FRI THRU MONDAY
LOOKING TO MODERATE WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND PREVAILING FLOW MAINLY WESTERLY. PERHAPS A BRIEF COOL-DOWN WITH
THE PASSING TROUGH SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MDT/STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION QUICKLY RETURNS FOR SUN. GIVEN PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES...MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI-MON LOOK
GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1117 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012
CLOUD DECK OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING. IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING
EAST AND THE 01.00Z NAM NOW SUGGESTS THIS MOISTURE FIELD WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 01.03Z RAP ALSO SHOWS THIS
TREND SO WILL INCLUDE A MVFR CEILING DEVELOPING AT KRST AROUND 18Z
AND KLSE AROUND 21Z. ONCE IT IS IN PLACE...WOULD EXPECT IT TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
339 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>
010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1117 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
210 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT...THEN THE
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR WED/WED NIGHT.
COLD AIR IS MOVING IN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO TUMBLE FROM
-10 C THIS AFTERNOON TO -14 C BY TUE MORNING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
PLAINS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP TEMPS FALL OFF A FEW MORE
DEGREES. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS BELOW
ZERO. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP...BUT STIR ENOUGH IN OPEN AND
UNSHELTERED AREAS THAT WIND CHILLS WILL BE A WEATHER CONCERN.
SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA CAN EXPECT 20 TO 25 BELOW WIND CHILLS FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING ON NEW YEARS. DANGEROUS ON A
NORMAL NIGHT...MORE SO WITH NEW YEAR/S EVE DRAWING MANY MANY PEOPLE
OUT FOR THE EVENING. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SLIDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR WED/WED NIGHT...WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY SPINNING ACROSS IOWA AND ANOTHER STAYING NORTH...ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. DECENT QG CONVERGENT RESPONSE IN THE 300-500 MB
LAYER BETWEEN 18Z WED-06Z THU TIME FRAME VIA THE GFS/NAM...BUT NOT
MUCH THERMODYNAMIC FORCING. NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST RUNNING X-SECTIONS
SATURATE THROUGH AT LEAST 600 MB AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN...A BIT
DEEPER IN THE GFS. DENDRITIC ZONE GROWTH REGION IS SMALL...BUT COLD
ENOUGH FOR ICE AND THUS SNOW FOR PCPN TYPE. AN ASSOCIATED SFC
BOUNDARY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHICH COULD AID IN
LIFT ALTHOUGH LITTLE 2-D FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE IS INDICATED AT THIS
TIME. OVERALL...DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID...THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH SATURATION
FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. THIS IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY EVENT WITH
MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
210 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012
SIZABLE DIFFERENCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND GEM
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE PAC NW...DRIVING IT EASTWARD TO ACROSS
THE REGION ON SAT. BOTH MODELS DROP MORE ENERGY FROM NORTHERN CANADA
INTO THE WAVE...HELPING DEEPENING THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS PAC NW SHORTWAVE...NOT
BRINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. IT ALSO NEVER
DEVELOPS A CONNECTION TO ANY ENERGY FARTHER NORTH. NOT MUCH QPF
PRODUCED VIA THE GFS/GEM...WITH NONE VIA THE EC. WITHOUT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER OF THE SOLUTIONS...WILL STICK WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
1117 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012
CLOUD DECK OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING. IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING
EAST AND THE 01.00Z NAM NOW SUGGESTS THIS MOISTURE FIELD WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 01.03Z RAP ALSO SHOWS THIS
TREND SO WILL INCLUDE A MVFR CEILING DEVELOPING AT KRST AROUND 18Z
AND KLSE AROUND 21Z. ONCE IT IS IN PLACE...WOULD EXPECT IT TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
210 PM CST MON DEC 31 2012
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
300 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT AND TEMPS
IN THE NEAR TERM.
SYNOPSIS:
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SLOWING TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA. LAST BUT NOT LEAST ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS NOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. AT THE SAME TIME THE CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRI
MORNING. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS TODAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE ON WED.
FRI-SAT:
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ON FRI WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL BE LOCATED
OVER EASTERN KS/EASTERN OK BY 12Z SAT. WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED SOME
FLURRIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE FOR FRI NIGHT
AS THIS FEATURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN REASON THIS WAVE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MORE THAN THIS IS BECAUSE OF LACK OF MOISTURE.
ON SAT THIS UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS A
MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THEY CREEP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SUN-WED:
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY MON MORNING ONE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WHILE A CLOSED LOW
TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN CA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS THE ONE WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BY TUE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH REGARDS TO THIS CLOSED LOW...WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH WITH
ITS POSITION AND ALSO A BIT SLOWER. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IN PRECIP
CHANCES FOR WED WITH THE THINKING THESE WILL BE ADJUSTED SEVERAL
TIMES WITH LATER FORECAST SHIFTS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL
ANTICIPATED AS WE START NEXT WEEK WITH 50S POSSIBLE BY TUE.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL AND
EXTENT FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK. A CURRENT MVFR DECK CAN BE FOUND UPSTREAM
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CERTAINTY IF THIS DECK WILL EVEN REACH KRSL
AND KSLN OR ANY OTHER SITES GIVEN NAM AND RUC MODELS BREAKING IT
UP BEFORE REACHING THEM. SINCE A SOUTHWARD SHIFTING CLOUD DECK IS
AT LEAST PRESENT...OPTED TO INSERT AN OVC DECK THAT STRADDLES VFR
AND MVFR BY 12Z. ADDITIONALLY THERE MAY BE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO
IMPACT KRSL AND KSLN GIVEN THE RADIATION OVER THE SNOW PACK...BUT
LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS SINCE THERE IS VERY MINIMAL CERTAINTY IN
ITS OCCURRENCE AT THE TAF SITE.
A SECOND VFR CLOUD DECK HAS BEGUN TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES. OPTED TO INPUT A MVFR DECK IN FOR KCNU GIVEN GUIDANCE
AND THE IMPACT OF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER STARTING AT 12Z THEN BKN A
FEW HOURS LATER. ALL SITES SHOULD SCATTER OR EVEN CLEAR OUT IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NEED TO BE
MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER TIME THESE CLOUDS
DECKS AS WELL AS ALTER CIGS ACCORDINGLY.
VP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 33 12 37 26 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 31 11 35 25 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 31 12 36 26 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 32 12 37 25 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 35 14 40 27 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELL 29 3 34 13 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 30 6 34 18 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 29 8 34 21 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 30 10 35 24 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 37 15 40 26 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 34 14 37 25 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 33 14 37 26 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 36 14 39 25 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1154 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
.UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR CENTRAL KANSAS GIVEN THE RADIATION OVER THE
SNOW COVER WHICH HAS CREATED REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN ELLSWORTH
ALREADY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD EVENT.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL AND
EXTENT FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK. A CURRENT MVFR DECK CAN BE FOUND UPSTREAM
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE CLOUDS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CERTAINTY IF THIS DECK WILL EVEN REACH KRSL
AND KSLN OR ANY OTHER SITES GIVEN NAM AND RUC MODELS BREAKING IT
UP BEFORE REACHING THEM. SINCE A SOUTHWARD SHIFTING CLOUD DECK IS
AT LEAST PRESENT...OPTED TO INSERT AN OVC DECK THAT STRADDLES VFR
AND MVFR BY 12Z. ADDITIONALLY THERE MAY BE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO
IMPACT KRSL AND KSLN GIVEN THE RADIATION OVER THE SNOW PACK...BUT
LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS SINCE THERE IS VERY MINIMAL CERTAINTY IN
ITS OCCURRENCE AT THE TAF SITE.
A SECOND VFR CLOUD DECK HAS BEGUN TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES. OPTED TO INPUT A MVFR DECK IN FOR KCNU GIVEN GUIDANCE
AND THE IMPACT OF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER STARTING AT 12Z THEN BKN A
FEW HOURS LATER. ALL SITES SHOULD SCATTER OR EVEN CLEAR OUT IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NEED TO BE
MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER TIME THESE CLOUDS
DECKS AS WELL AS ALTER CIGS ACCORDINGLY.
VP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A
MVFR DECK IS STILL HANGING AROUND UPSTREAM AND MAY SLIDE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS KRSL AND KSLN...SO OPTED TO LEAVE IN SCATTERED DECKS JUST
IN CASE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KICT AS WELL WHICH ARE
SLOWLY ERODING. KEPT IN A TEMPO JUST IN CASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS DUE TO TWO AREAS OF NEAR MVRF CIGS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTY AND NEAR KINGMAN. A COUPLE OF MODELS ARE STILL
HINTING AT MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10-13Z ON THURSDAY FOR ALL BUT KCNU...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A LACK OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES. THUS
KEPT THE SCATTERED MVFR MENTION FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE IN THE
NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE IF NEEDED. WINDS WILL STAY NORTHWEST AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10KTS.
VP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
SYNOPSIS:
A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS TROUGH IS THE COMBINATION OF A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT PV
ANOMALIES. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
ALONG THE AXIS OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.
TONIGHT - FRIDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE...BUT NOT IMPACTING OUR
PRECIPITATION FORECAST MUCH. THE MAIN THING IS THAT IT WILL KEEP COLD
AIR IN THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN TROUGH
BECOMES EVEN MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE MOVES EAST WHILE THE REMAINDER STAYS CONNECTED TO CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS
UPPER WAVE AND TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH
THE SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. THINK TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS. DO NOT THINK FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE
AS COLD AS EXPECTED DURING YESTERDAYS FORECAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLIER...BUT STILL LOW SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THEM TO BE CALM TO ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
AFTER A WARMER THAN EXPECTED MAXIMUM FORECAST TODAY...THE
REINFORCING SHOT OF AIR TOMORROW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER WAVE WILL PULL COMPLETELY EAST...LEAVING SOME
ENERGY CUT-OFF OVER NEW MEXICO.
SATURDAY - WEDNESDAY:
BY THE WEEKEND THE CUT-OFF LOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
WILL KICK THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE NAM IS
A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS...HAVE CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO
THESE DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND
REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST 12Z/ECMWF DOES HINT
AT SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE IS LOW AND HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THESE DISTURBANCES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AND HELP
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK.
THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE INDICATED ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW TO BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA...BUT THE
TIMING HAS BEEN AWRY AMONG THE DIFFERENT MODELS. NOW THINGS HAVE
CHANGED WITH THE LATEST RUNS...THE GFS HAS GRADUALLY SLOWED
DOWN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAVE SPED UP. THIS PUTS THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE IN THE MODELS MUCH NEARER TO EACH OTHER...GIVING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH THAT BEING
SAID...THE DISCREPANCIES WITH THE SYSTEM AS OF LATE AND THESE JUST
BEING THE LATEST RUNS...DID TAPER THE POPS SOME FOR DAY 7. STILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS...BUT LOW CHANCE POPS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK...COULD BE THE NEXT BIG PRECIPITATION
PRODUCER...IF THINGS PAN OUT AS THEY ARE INDICATING NOW.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 16 30 12 39 / 10 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 14 29 10 38 / 10 0 0 10
NEWTON 15 29 12 36 / 10 0 0 10
ELDORADO 15 31 12 38 / 10 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 17 32 14 39 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 9 25 2 31 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 10 26 7 32 / 10 0 0 0
SALINA 11 27 7 35 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 13 28 10 37 / 10 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 18 35 16 40 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 17 33 14 37 / 10 10 0 10
IOLA 18 33 14 36 / 10 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 18 34 14 38 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
104 AM EST THU JAN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF THE GREAT LAKES MAY SPAWN SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM PD FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE.
PREVIOUS...
BASED ON BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA ALONG WITH
RECENT RAP AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT BANDS OF JETSTREAK-
RELATED CIRROSTRATUS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
WITH SURFACE LAYER REMAINING RATHER DRY WITH SNOWPACK
UNDERNEATH...NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE ONLY
SLIGHTLY REDUCED. DID MAKE ADDITIONAL MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...AS EVENING TEMPERATURE FALL HAS BEEN
SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS STILL YIELDED LOWS IN THE
5 TO 15 RANGE FOR MOST LOCALES...WHICH WAS GENERALLY 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS GFS AND NAM MOS
SHOWED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT PASSAGE OF A WEAK...MSTR LTD...POSITIVELY
TILTED SHRTWV TROF LATER TODAY. AS SUCH...EVEN WITH SOME LIFT...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE AND POPS WERE MAINTAINED AT SLGT...TO
CHC NMBRS OVR NRN AND RIDGE ZONES.
COLD AIR IS PROGGED TO RMN ENTRENCHED OVR THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
A STRONG CONSENSUS ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE
FORECAST. AS SUCH...THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH CONTINENTAL AIR IN
CONTROL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPD FOR THE LONG TERM PD. A WK COLD FRONT
IS EXPD TO MOVE THROUGH THE RGN SUNDAY. WL KEEP CHC POPS FOR
SHSN...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH WHERE SOMEWHAT DEEPER
MOISTURE IS FCST. COULD SEE A FEW SHSN IN NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT H8 FLOW QUICKLY TURNS ANTICYCLONIC CUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING
SHSN. HIGH PRES BLDS IN SUN NT THROUGH WED...WITH SEVERAL LOW PRES
SYSTEMS PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH.
SHOULD SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS WELL BY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
PREFERRED TO STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS WILL BE UNDER HIGH OVERCAST SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME
SLIGHT CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE NEARLY
CALM TONIGHT...EXPECT SW GUSTS TO PICK UP TO AT LEAST 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BE WEAKENING...BUT
SHOULD STILL BRING LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE AT FKL/DUJ.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
101 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH FROM ITS PARENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN COLORADO TO ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. WAA OVER MY NORTHWEST WHERE RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC
RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES BEING REPORTED
AT TIMES OVER VARIOUS OBSERVING SITES ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUDS HAVE
KEPT OUR TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING...AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED MORNING TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR THE 05Z RAP MODEL WHICH
CAPTURES THE CURRENT SITUATION THE BEST. WHILE CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR/TREND SCATTERED OVER MY WEST AND NORTH NOW THROUGH 12Z...WAA
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT AS SKIES CLEAR.
MAIN UPDATES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS INCREASING MORNING
TEMPERATURES...MAINTAINING/EXPANDING ISOLATED FLURRIES ALL AREAS
THROUGH 12Z...AND ADJUSTING SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
&&
.AVIATION...AT 11 PM CST...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SASKATCHEWAN WAS MOVING EAST. A LARGE AREA OF MVFR
CEILINGS EXTENDED ACROSS ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08-14Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1249 AM EST THU JAN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVERNIGHT. CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES THURSDAY
NIGHT. TWO UPPER SHORT WAVES PASS THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.
630PM UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO BE THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST.
SHOULD LOSE THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS UP TO THE MOUNTAINS...SO WILL DROP IN GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. SREF PICKING UP ON STRATUS CLIPPING OUR EXTREME
NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ON THE FAR EASTERN SLOPES IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEATING HAS ALLOWED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN...MOST PREVALENT
ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE UNDER INVERSION
PROVIDING FOR A DREARY DAY ACROSS SW VA WITH LOW CIGS AND SOME
FOG. WILL ALLOW STRATOCU TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SUN AS CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF RIDING JET FROM SW INVADES TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH LOW
STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS SE OH AND N WV PER RUC SOUNDINGS BUT
OTHER MDLS NOT REALLY SHOWING THIS. FOR TEMPS WILL HEDGE THAT CIRRUS
IS NOT OPAQUE ENOUGH TO HINDER FALL TOO MUCH. LOOKING AT TEENS
AND LWR 20S FOR MOST PART FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TOMORROW WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SW VA TOWARD DICKENSON CO WHERE LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGHS REBOUND SOME WITH EVERYONE
OUTSIDE OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE 30S. SOME CLDS MAY SNEAK INTO
SE OH TOWARD EVENING FROM AN APPROACHING CLIPPER TYPE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY PROGRESSIVE AND DRY PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE A MOISTURE
STARVED SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT PROMPTS
SMALL POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOSTLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THEN...A QUIET
PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE JUST
AFTER THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM CAN AFFECT US. LOOK FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...MODERATING CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDING CONTINUE TO INDICATE SATURATED SFC TO BARELY
BELOW MINUS 10C LEVEL...SUGGESTING GOOD CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST.
NORTHWEST BACKWARDS TRAJECTORIES FROM SUNDAY RETURNS FROM IL AND
WI...BRINGING MUCH COLD AIR...CAPABLE TO SQUEEZE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS...TO PRODUCE LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE PER SHALLOWER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WITH NO LAKE CONNECTION
BELOW MINUS 10C. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING BY EARLY
MONDAY.
TWEAKED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ACCOUNTING FOR
CLOUD COVER AND GFS H850 COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MVFR RIVER VALLEY MIST OVERNIGHT...VFR FCST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL INCREASE W FLOW SFC AND
ALOFT A BIT...AND BRING PATCHY STRATOCU LATE THU AND THU NT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR RIVER VALLEY MIST MAY BE MORE OR LESS
PREVALENT THAN FCST OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 01/03/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/30/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1129 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
925 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN BAND OF
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAINING ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS 1-2 HOUR BAND OF SNOW HAS PRODUCED JUST A
DUSTING OF SNOW WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING AS THE OVERALL LIFT WEAKENS TO THE EAST. CURRENT
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WHAT HAPPENS AS THE SNOW ENDS IS A TOUGHER QUESTION. IN THE REGION
WEST OF THE SNOW AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS AN AREA
WHERE LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS OCCURRING UNDER A SHARP INVERSION.
THIS HAS LED TO THE FORMATION OF A LOW CLOUD DECK AND SOME PATCHY
FOG THAT HAS MAINLY BEEN IN THE 1-4SM RANGE. THERE IS CONCERN THAT
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AS WELL AS THIS SATURATED
LAYER APPEARS TO BE JUST WARM ENOUGH THAT ICE PRODUCTION MAY NOT
BE OCCURRING. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH LOW LEVEL LIFT
THOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY KIND OF PRECIPITATION. MPX RECEIVED A FEW
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLIER IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
THREAT OF IT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING GOING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. MADE SOME CALLS TO COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENTS IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN THE LOWEST AND THEY
HAVE NOT HAD ANY ISSUES WITH ICING OUT THERE. SO...WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND JUST LEAVE SOME FLURRIES IN THERE WITH
THE LOWER CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST QUICKLY TONIGHT AND
APPEAR TO BE DOING SO FASTER THAN WHAT THE 02.22Z-03.01Z RAP HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING. CEILINGS WILL PICK UP ONCE THE WIND SHIFT COMES
THROUGH...SO ANY DRIZZLE THREAT WILL END AS THIS FEATURE COMES IN.
SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY INTO TOMORROW WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...
252 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
THE OVERALL WARMING TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE OFFING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...A CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SOMEWHERE NEAR CA OR THE BAJA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THAT SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...IT IS
LOOKING LIKE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM. IN FACT...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF IT WILL FALL AS RAIN. SO THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS
WATCHING.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
1129 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
THE MAIN SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
THURSDAY. IFR CEILINGS AT RST ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DRIER NEAR
SURFACE AIR MOVING IN. THESE 1-2.5KFT CEILINGS EXTEND WELL ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL
THOUGH A FEW BREAKS TO VFR WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION WITH TOP GUSTS IN THE 18 TO 24KT RANGE. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS
THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW AND CLOUD COVER MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
252 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HALBACH
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A
STRUNG OUT POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT INTO TWO
SEPARATE SYSTEMS. THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SCOOT EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN CHUNK MOVES ACROSS OUR
REGION. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LOOKING UPSTREAM
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS TO
DEAL WITH. MODELS SWING THIS MOISTURE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT OTHER THAN THESE PASSING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE AFFECTED BY SNOW AND CLOUD COVER
TODAY...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS PERSISTING OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SW INDIANA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE AMT OF MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON TEMPS AS WELL.
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SYSTEM...WHICH
DEVELOPS OVER NM/TX. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME...AND BY 00Z SATURDAY...TEMPS
IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER RISE ABOVE ZERO IN PARTS OF SEMO.
THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP LOWS FROM GETTING TOO COLD ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY. IT THEN EJECTS NE ACROSS MO/IL THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THIS EVENT. THE NAM INDICATES SOME QPF OVER
MAINLY WEST KY...AND ECMWF SPLIT BEST MOISTURE TO OUR NW AND SE.
THERE AREA ALSO TIMING DIFFERENCES RIGHT NOW...WITH THE GFS
INDICATING THE QPF ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE NAM INDICATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THICKNESSES
AND SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS EITHER SPRINKLES OR SOME FLURRIES
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
ALL THE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET.
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT 1000-700MB MOISTURE...THE PASSAGE OF AN
H5 SHORT WAVE...AND 1000-850MB CRITICAL THICKNESSES AOB 1300M...
DECIDED TO THROW IN FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE FLURRIES MAY LINGER OVER THE SAME AREA SUNDAY MORNING BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER...EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HOW THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT STILL NOT CLEAR BUT THE END RESULT SHOULD
BASICALLY BE THE SAME. THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...THEN KEEPS THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEREAS THE ECMWF GENERALLY KEEPS THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BRINGS THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD.
IRONICALLY ENOUGH...EVEN WITH THE DISPARITY BETWEEN THESE TWO LONG
RANGE MODELS...THEY BOTH SHOW THE NEXT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT IS
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE...SO WILL NOT ELABORATE ANY
FURTHER AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AOB NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS AS OF THIS WRITING. VSBYS VFR
ATTM BUT WILL WATCH FOR ANY DIP NEAR SUNRISE. CONTINUE TO SEE
SIGNS FOR A SCATTERED DECK 3-5KFT SLOWLY MOVING IN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE MVFR SIGNAL IS NOT AS
STRONG...EXCEPT OVER THE KEVV TERMINAL...OTHERWISE KEPT IT VFR.
LATEST RAP MODEL SHOWS THIS DECK WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET THERE
(18Z OR SO) DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. WEST WINDS WELL UNDER
10KTS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. APPEARS AS THOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD DECK MAY
BECOME OR WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE VFR OR MVFR. KEPT THINGS
OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
525 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 300 AM CST/
TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD FORECAST A BIT TRICKY FOR TODAY. CURRENTLY
SEEING AN AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA...WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY THINKING IS
THAT THIS STRATUS TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA...ONLY SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST
AND THUS FOLLOWED CLOSER TO IT FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY. SLOWED DOWN
THE EXIT OF THE CLOUDS...WITH CLEARING OUT WEST EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING...THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND
NOT EXITING OUR EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALSO RAISED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
CURRENT STRATUS IN THE UPPER TEENS...AND AS IT MOVES BACK
IN...THINKING MOST LOCATIONS GET AT LEAST TO THESE TEMPERATURES.
WARMEST READINGS WILL BE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WHERE AFTERNOON
SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES BY TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE TRICKY...AS A DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. OVERALL THINKING
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE NEAR
AND DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS NEAR 20 KTS WILL KEEP THINGS MIXED. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOWS
NEAR ZERO IN THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR IF WE CAN DECOUPLE. DID
TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN SNOWCOVER AND
CLEAR SKIES...BUT IF THE WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH THEN CURRENT LOWS
WILL LIKELY BE TOO COLD.
WILL SEE A BIT OF RIDGING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON FRIDAY.
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT...GIVEN SNOW COVER AND EXPECTED WEAK MIXING
PREVENTING US FROM REALIZING MUCH OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
THE NAM SEEMS TOO COLD...AND THINKING WE STILL SEE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S MOST SPOTS...WITH LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD SHOT MOVES IN ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE SOME MORE STRATUS ON SATURDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES AS WELL...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
THAT. MODELS DISAGREE SOME ON TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
SHOT...BUT HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20S MOST SPOTS.
WE THEN SEE A WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE COOL ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH 20S EAST AND 30S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER BY
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FLOW
FAVORABLE FOR DECENT MIXING. SO DESPITE SNOWCOVER...EXPECTING HIGHS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. AS IT IS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER FLOW AND TURNS
NORTHEAST DISAGREEMENT ENTERS ON HOW FAR NORTHWEST IT GETS. THERE IS
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...PROBABLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS. AS IT
LOOKS NOW...TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY VERY WELL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW...FAVORING A RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THREAT IF ANYTHING. FLOW THEN
TURNS FAVORABLE FOR MORE COLD AIR TO END NEXT WEEK. /CHENARD
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I29 WILL BECOME MVFR CEILINGS
DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN BECOME VFR AGAIN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WEST OF I29
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EST THU JAN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A SWATH OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A POST-FRONTAL WAVE IS BEGINNING A
DECREASING TREND THIS AFTN. THE BAND OF PRECIP WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH
TNGT/FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH FORCING AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP
WILL REMAIN AS THE WAVE NUDGES SOUTH. LATEST TRENDS POINT TO THE
NAM BEING TOO DRY...WITH THE GFS A BIT WET. THE RUC13 LOOKS THE CLOSEST
THROUGH TNGT...THUS WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST AREAS...DECREASING
ACROSS SE GA THIS EVENING...AND DIMINISHING ACROSS EXTREME NE FL
OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA
THUS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NE
FL...WITH PRECIP ENDING THERE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR ACROSS SE GA BY THE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS
MOST OF NE FL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...INDICATIONS ARE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER S CENTRAL FL AREA WILL WORK BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT
DURING LATTER HALF OF TH WEEKEND WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OVER NE FL AND PORTIONS OF SE GA. CONSENSUS RH VALUES
THROUGH 500 MB SHOW AT OR ABOVE 75% IN THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED OUR
POPS TO CHANCE AND A SLIVER OF LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO STRONG
UPGLIDE ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSH E OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING FROM
NW TO SE BY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDING FOR COASTAL
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY...
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT AFFECTING FORECAST AREA...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN SOLUTION TUE-THU
SUGGESTS NOT CHANGING THE FCST UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR TO VFR CIGS EXPECTED REST OF THE AFTN WITH OCNL IFR
CIGS AND VSBY DUE TO LIGHT RAIN AND MIST. MVFR CIGS SEEM LIKELY IN
THE EVENING WITH CONDS IMPROVING BY 12Z FRI TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT
POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS AT GNV AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...NLY WINDS HAVE KICKED UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE MARINE ZONES
WITH SCEC HEADLINE IN PLACE. MAY NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES GOING
TONIGHT AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS FCST GOES DOWN A BIT DURING
THE WEEKEND DUE TO POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. IF NAM
VERIFIES...HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF INCREASED WINDS BY SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SWD OVER THE WRN ATLC INCREASING LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SCA HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 35-40 PERCENT ACROSS FAR
INLAND AREAS FRIDAY...AND TO 30-35 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SO STATEMENTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 35 60 36 60 / 30 0 0 30
SSI 43 59 45 61 / 30 10 10 40
JAX 41 62 41 63 / 30 10 10 50
SGJ 49 63 48 64 / 40 30 20 60
GNV 43 64 41 65 / 40 20 20 60
OCF 48 65 44 68 / 50 30 30 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/SHASHY/MCALLISTER
AFTER 42 YEARS...MY FINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION.
ALTHOUGH THESE WORDS WILL PASS WITH THE WIND...THE CAMARADERIE
SHARED WITH YOU...MY FELLOW WEATHER WATCHERS...WILL FOREVER BE
CHERISHED. MAY THE SUN SOFTLY WARM YOU, THE RAIN REFRESH YOU, AND
GOD BE WITH YOU...ALWAYS. LOU GIORDANO
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR UNTIL POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
333 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TOUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS A RESULT...MAXING OUT AT
AROUND 50KTS NEAR 350MB PER 12Z RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDING DATA FOR
KGRI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER
NORTHWEST...OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER. AT
THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTH
TEXAS...NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT...THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BUT IS
VERY LIGHT.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS...WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. DESPITE THIS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW...ANY
OMEGA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
CLEAR SKIES AND 2-6 INCHES OF SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH 25-30 DEGREE
DROP OFFS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE FORECAST
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT. AN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD PROMOTE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH 30-35 DEGREE RISES
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS PRESENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S.
FINALLY...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...NEAR-
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED.
ALTHOUGH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN FROM EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...IT APPEARS THE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WENT AHEAD
WITH SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHICH IS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE HIGHEST AND THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WEAKEST.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT THE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WARMER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE COLDER AIR DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL ON
SATURDAY. EVEN THIS IS NOT MUCH COLDER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT THE SAME AS ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW
CLOUDS TO THE REGION.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD SHOW UP IN
TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT ON SUNDAY.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE GREATLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
BOTH OPEN THE WAVE SOME AND MOVE IT THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HAS
MAINTAINED SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHILE THE OTHERS HAVE MADE
SOME CHANGES IN THE LAST RUN. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS MORE
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION TO THE TIMING CHANGE THAT THE GFS
HAS...TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COLDER...WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
THEREFORE WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. AS THE
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW
MIXED INTO THE RAIN. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST AND THEREFORE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013/
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. STRATUS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL THUS PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AT KGRI.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10KTS
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
420 PM EST THU JAN 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE STEADIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETS UP
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY...RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE STEADIER SNOW IS
FALLING ALONG THE RETREATING ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE
ON THE AREA OF SNOW THAT IS FORMING WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MARKS
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT/CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THAT TRAILS
THE SURFACE LOW. AS THIS FRONT REACHES LAKE ERIE AROUND 21Z...EXPECT
THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW TO INTENSIFY A BIT AS IT PICKS UP MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED BY THE
SHORT WAVE THAT IS APPROACHING THE LAKE. THE HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS
TREND AND SUGGESTS THAT A BURST OF SNOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM METRO BUFFALO TO BATAVIA BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. THIS
AREA COULD PICK UP A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH COMBINED
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING RUSH HOUR
COMMUTE. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY LATER IN THE EVENING. EXPECT A SIMILAR
TREND TO DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT 23Z THROUGH 02Z.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOWBANDS
TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
MAY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE INVERSION LOWER SHARPLY AFTER 06Z.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO REDUCE THE LAKE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...THE BUFKIT PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW THE LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT INCH OF SNOW.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...STILL EXPECT A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT...WITH A
LONGER FETCH AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON THE TUG HILL. THE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE GREATER DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS ALL POINTS TO SOME DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ON THE TUG HILL.
AS A RESULT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR OUR THREE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.
OUTSIDE OF THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MOISTURE AND SNOW GROWTH
WILL BE STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SNOW MAY SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS BACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
EAST OF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS
FAVORABLE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT THERE WILL BE NO ICE CRYSTALS WITHIN THE
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. AS A RESULT...IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN WILL BE A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT MIX OF PCPN MAY LIFT
SHIFT NORTH TOWARD BUFFALO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL LITTLE ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET TRACKING ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHMOES SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...MOST
AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SHORES WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY WIND GUSTS.
THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES OUTLINED
BELOW. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH ANY FALLING SNOW WILL RESULT
IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WELL ALIGNED WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION HOWEVER AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRIER AIR NOSES NORTHWARDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE EVEN LOWER WITH DRY AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY STILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE MAY CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGERING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOOK FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS YET ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AT THE SURFACE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.
WHILE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY DEEP...A WIDESPREAD
2 TO 4 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOWFALL AND USHERING IN A WARM-UP SET
TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION HINGES ON THE
FATE OF AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND THEN LIFTING THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...TRACKING A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A CUTOFF LOW THAT LINGERS THERE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS PROGNOSIS KEEPS ZONAL
FLOW AND/OR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD FORECAST. HISTORICALLY...THE FORMATION OF THE
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS QUITE COMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND MODELS TYPICALLY ARE TOO FAST IN PUSHING THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE THIS FORECAST STRONGLY FAVORS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK TO BE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING FROM THE LOW 30S MONDAY TO AROUND
40 BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. A NARROW BAND
OF SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES EACH LAKE. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A BRIEF OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL GENERATE STEADIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE WINDS PICK
UP.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DIP TO IFR AT
TIMES DUE TO THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WE MAY ALSO SEE FREEZING
DRIZZLE MIXING IN WITH LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE
EFFECT AREAS.
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET TRACKS EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY JUST DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO
45 KNOTS AT TIMES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES HAVE EITHER SET...OR TIED THEIR WARMEST YEAR
ON RECORD. BOTH BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN HAVE FINISHED A FULL DEGREE
OR MORE WARMER THAN THEIR PREVIOUS YEARS ON RECORD. ONE NOTE FOR BUFFALO
IS TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE RECORDED DOWNTOWN AND CLOSER TO LAKE
ERIE UNTIL THE SUMMER OF 1943.
ROCHESTER TIED FOR THEIR WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH THE YEAR
1931...WHICH WAS A PARTICULARLY WARM YEAR FOR THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO 1871.
WHILE WATERTOWN HAS A SHORTER PERIOD OF RECORD WITH ANNUAL
TEMPERATURES GOING BACK TO ONLY 1950.
BUFFALO
1 2012 52.1
2 1998 50.9
3 2006 50.6
1991 50.6
1921 50.6
ROCHESTER
1 2012 51.8 (TIE)
1931 51.8
3 2006 51.5
4 1921 51.4
5 1998 50.7
WATERTOWN
1 2012 49.2
2 1953 48.1
3 1998 48.0
4 2006 47.4
5 1952 47.2
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ001>003-
010>012-019-020-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ030-
043>045-063>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1011 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST/
JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 925-875 HPA LAYER THIS MORNING TO
COUPLE WITH VERY DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE RANGE TO KICK START SHALLOW
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES...AND BRING A LIGHT DUSTING TO SNOW TO THE
I29 CORRIDOR AND JUST EAST THROUGH MID MORNING. BAND IS ABOUT 40 NM
WIDE NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ADVANCING LOW CLOUDS /WITH DEPTH
NO MORE THAN 3000 FT PER MORNING ABR RAOB. FOR NOW...PROBABLY WILL
END UP WITH A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AS BAND MOVES EAST...BUT
LIKELY TO NOT GET MEASURABLE LIQUID WITH THE VERY DENDRITIC SNOWFALL.
RAP IS REALLY THE ONLY RELIABLE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ON LOWER
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH 12Z NAM LOOKS AS IF IT IS TRYING TO CATCH ON...
AND BOTH ARE FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC TO GET MUCH CLEARING TOWARD I29 BY
00Z. DID INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD MENTION OF FLURRIES A COUPLE HOURS
AGO...BUT MAY END UP NEEDING TO DELAY CLEARING SOMEWHAT MORE. CLOUDS
WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL WARMING WEST...AND WILL LIKELY HELP THINGS
ALONG ACROSS THE COLDER EAST. /CHAPMAN
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MASS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. LEADING 30-40NM FEATURING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME
VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY INTO THE IFR RANGE...BUT MOSTLY MVFR. SHOULD
BECOME VFR AGAIN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WEST
OF I29 WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. /CHAPMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 300 AM CST/
TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD FORECAST A BIT TRICKY FOR TODAY. CURRENTLY
SEEING AN AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA...WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY THINKING IS
THAT THIS STRATUS TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA...ONLY SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST
AND THUS FOLLOWED CLOSER TO IT FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY. SLOWED DOWN
THE EXIT OF THE CLOUDS...WITH CLEARING OUT WEST EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING...THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND
NOT EXITING OUR EAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALSO RAISED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
CURRENT STRATUS IN THE UPPER TEENS...AND AS IT MOVES BACK
IN...THINKING MOST LOCATIONS GET AT LEAST TO THESE TEMPERATURES.
WARMEST READINGS WILL BE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WHERE AFTERNOON
SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES BY TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE TRICKY...AS A DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. OVERALL THINKING
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE NEAR
AND DOWNWIND OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS NEAR 20 KTS WILL KEEP THINGS MIXED. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOWS
NEAR ZERO IN THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR IF WE CAN DECOUPLE. DID
TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN SNOWCOVER AND
CLEAR SKIES...BUT IF THE WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH THEN CURRENT LOWS
WILL LIKELY BE TOO COLD.
WILL SEE A BIT OF RIDGING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON FRIDAY.
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT...GIVEN SNOW COVER AND EXPECTED WEAK MIXING
PREVENTING US FROM REALIZING MUCH OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
THE NAM SEEMS TOO COLD...AND THINKING WE STILL SEE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S MOST SPOTS...WITH LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD SHOT MOVES IN ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD SEE SOME MORE STRATUS ON SATURDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. COULD
SEE SOME FLURRIES AS WELL...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
THAT. MODELS DISAGREE SOME ON TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
SHOT...BUT HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20S MOST SPOTS.
WE THEN SEE A WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE COOL ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH 20S EAST AND 30S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER BY
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FLOW
FAVORABLE FOR DECENT MIXING. SO DESPITE SNOWCOVER...EXPECTING HIGHS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. AS IT IS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER FLOW AND TURNS
NORTHEAST DISAGREEMENT ENTERS ON HOW FAR NORTHWEST IT GETS. THERE IS
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...PROBABLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS. AS IT
LOOKS NOW...TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY VERY WELL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW...FAVORING A RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THREAT IF ANYTHING. FLOW THEN
TURNS FAVORABLE FOR MORE COLD AIR TO END NEXT WEEK. /CHENARD
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
233 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...
233 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT...AND
THEN ATTENTION SHIFTS TO CLOUDS AND FLURRIES/DRIZZLE ON SATURDAY.
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING FROM KS
UP INTO MN...AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT CLOUD IS DISSIPATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE. BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUD BAND HAD REACHED THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH ANOTHER
DIMINISHING PATCH OF CLOUDS ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. WHERE
THERE WERE CLOUDS...THERE WERE ALSO FLURRIES.
FIRST ISSUE IS THE CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT. WITH RIDGING MOVING
IN...ANTICIPATE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. WITH LITTLE
CLOUD AND DIMINISHING WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE...THINK IT IS PRUDENT
TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE NIGHT...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL
OCCUR FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT A TEMP PLUNGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAVORED COOL SPOTS IN WESTERN WI.
GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH
A WARM SOUTHWEST BREEZE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S. BUT THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO AID RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT.
NEXT TAG-TEAM OF DISTURBANCES LOOKS TO PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE SATURDAY. ONE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL TAKE A TURN UP TOWARD CHICAGO
BY MID-DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DROP FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. EACH WILL
PROVIDE SOME LIFT AND SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. PERUSAL OF VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS VIA
BUFKIT SHOWS THE MOISTURE TO BE VERY SHALLOW...AND THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE LOWER COLUMN WHERE SATURATION OCCURS
WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...NEAR OR ABOVE -10C. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ON A FEW MODELS THAT SOME SEEING OF THIS LAYER COULD
OCCUR FROM ABOVE. EITHER WAY...LIFT IS LIMITED AND AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. DISCUSSION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES LED TO
REINTRODUCING FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST...BUT OPTED NOT TO ADD
THE DRIZZLE WORDING AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE MUDDLED AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
IN TWO DISTINCT CAMPS REGARDING THE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WEST
COAST IN BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS. IF ANYTHING...THE
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE ADDED MORE UNCERTAINTY. ONE CLUSTER OF
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS/GEM/UKMET SUPPORT A STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE NAM AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF WITH A CLOSED
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND MOVING SLOWLY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS A BETTER LONG-RANGE
TRACK RECORD SO IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...
WITH THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY SEEN MOVING INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...IT MAY BE HARD FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACTUALLY SEPARATE
ITSELF FROM THE FLOW AS DEPICTED. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED ALONG THE
LINE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LINES UP CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...BECAUSE DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES...SOMEBODY IN OUR REGION
WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...AND IT COULD BE SNOW OR EVEN
RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE.
EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THE OVERALL FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A WARM UP.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1113 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
NORTH INTO MINNESOTA. MVFR CLOUDS EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BOTH TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE THE FLURRIES CONTINUE UNTIL THE
CLOUDS CLEAR THE AREA AS THE 03.15Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK
OMEGA THROUGH THE SATURATED LAYER. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH...THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS UP AROUND
10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
233 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1113 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
341 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SMALL PRECIP/FLURRY/FZDZ
CHANCES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU
THE PERIOD.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION...CENTERED OVER LK SUPERIOR. LEAD TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AROUND
THIS LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WI TO EASTERN IA. SECOND TROUGH/FRONT WAS
OVER NORTHWEST WI TO NEAR OMAHA. LEAD BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH
THE FIRST TROUGH WAS EXITING THE FCST AREA. MORE -SN WITH THE SECOND
TROUGH/FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN WAS ROTATING
THRU EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MN TOWARD THE FCST AREA. PATCHY
-FZDZ HAD BEEN REPORTED MIXED WITH THE -SN IN THE FCST AREA...BUT IR
CLOUD TOP TEMPS INDICATE ICE SEEDING SHOULD BE OCCURRING IN THE
CLOUD TOPS. UPSTREAM...-SN REPORTED WITH THE PRECIP MOVING THRU THE
KMSP/KSTP AREA. TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY JAN AND NEAR/AT
24HR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
03.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND AGAIN OFFER VERY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THRU THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THIS WITH A MODERATELY ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EITHER EXITING OR MOVING INTO
THE REGION THRU SAT NIGHT. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 03.00Z
INDICATED THE MODEL RUNS OF OF 01.00Z AND 02.00Z VERIFIED VERY WELL
ACROSS NOAM BUT ALL WERE BIT FAST WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOW
HEADED FOR THE OR/WA COAST. MODELS OFFER A TIGHT CONSENSUS TODAY/
TONIGHT AS ONE TROUGH EXITS AND HGTS QUICKLY RISE IN ITS WAKE.
TIGHTER CONSENSUS CONTINUE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AT 12Z SAT. CONSENSUS LOOSENS SAT/SAT
NIGHT AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT TRENDING
TOWARD A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. NO ONE MODEL WITH BETTER
SHORT-TERM RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THIS CYCLE.
CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL TO BE REASONABLE WITH
THE LK SUPERIOR LOW AND TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS AGAIN
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. PER WV IMAGERY ALL LOOKED QUITE GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DETAILS OVER NOAM/EASTERN PAC. BLEND OF MODELS REASONABLE WITH THE
LIGHT PRECIP IN THE 00-06Z PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH NO ONE MODEL FAVORITE AND THE TREND TOWARD A TIGHTER
CONSENSUS...AGAIN FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...PER AREA WSR-88D/S...BACK EDGE OF THE -SN
ACROSS MN WAS NEAR A KDLH-JUST NORTHWEST OF KMSP/KSTP LINE AT 08Z...
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. THIS BACK EDGE LINES UP WITH THE
SHORTWAVE/SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER MN. THIS SHORTWAVE/
TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST THRU THE FCST AREA IN THE 09-15Z TIME-
FRAME THIS MORNING...WITH A RATHER RAPID DECREASE OF MOISTURE DEPTH
ONCE IT PASSES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOISTURE DEPTH TO ABOUT
800MB AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH 850-800MB TEMPS IN THE -10C TO
-12C RANGE. WILL CONTINUE FLURRY MENTION THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE 12-15Z PERIOD UNTIL THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD
ADVECTION/DRYING SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOKING TO
BE IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD. TEMPS FALL DURING THE LATE MORNING WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW/COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH THEN NEARLY STEADY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MDT/STRONG 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS STRONG HGT RISES MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT LOOKING TO BE DURING THE EVENING THEN
STEADY/SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ADD THIS TREND TO THE FCST
GRIDS WITH SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-12KTS LATER TONIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE -2C TO +2C
RANGE BY 00Z SAT. WITH A DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 6-14KTS FOR MIXING...HIGHS FRI
LOOKING TO WARM MOSTLY INTO THE 25-30F RANGE. WEAKER GRADIENT WINDS
OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS BROAD/WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO MN.
WITH THE DEEP...DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
THE SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW LOWS FRI NIGHT TO FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.
925-500MB AIRMASS/COLUMN COOLS WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH. LATEST MODEL TREND IS DRIER ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS TROUGH. DUE TO THE SLOWING
TREND WITH THE TROUGH...WHAT MOISTURE INCREASE THAT DOES OCCUR IS
MOSTLY SAT NIGHT. EVEN THEN...THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...AT OR BELOW
ABOUT 900MB. WITH THE SLOWER TROUGH APPROACH AND SMALLER MOISTURE
INCREASE...REMOVED FLURRY MENTION FROM SAT. BASED ON THERMAL
PROFILES AND LACK OF ICE IN THE LOW CLOUD/MOISTURE LAYER...IF ANY
PRECIP WERE TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT IT WOULD BE -FZDZ. LEFT SAT NIGHT DRY
WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE...THE AREA BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH
AXIS...AND LITTLE IF ANY LIFT IN/UNDER THE SFC-850MB INVERSION.
GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/
LOWS TODAY THRU SAT NIGHT. DID AS SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS GRIDS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
341 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
03.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS BY TUE/WED AND A RATHER MILD
JANUARY PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE AREA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SPREADS A WARM/DRY AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PLAINS INTO THE
AREA BUT A SFC RIDGE OF HIGHS PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TEMPS TREND NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...WITH WARMING SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS/
SFC WINDS INCREASE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF
THE FCST AREA. WITH THE FLOW TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FOR TUE/WED...
WEST/ SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TUE/WED FOR SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING. MODEL CONSENSUS HIGHS IN THE MON-WED FCST GRIDS TRENDED
ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER AND STRENGTH OF WINDS/LOW LEVEL MIXING. GIVEN THE PROGGED
925MB TEMPERATURES BY TUE/WED...STRONGER MIXING WOULD PUSH HIGHS
THESE DAYS WELL INTO THE 40S. STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS AT THIS TIME WHICH LEAVES GRIDS WELL
COLLABORATED WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
1113 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
NORTH INTO MINNESOTA. MVFR CLOUDS EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BOTH TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE THE FLURRIES CONTINUE UNTIL THE
CLOUDS CLEAR THE AREA AS THE 03.15Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK
OMEGA THROUGH THE SATURATED LAYER. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH...THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS UP AROUND
10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
341 AM CST THU JAN 3 2013
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04